844 FXAK69 PAFG 191301 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 501 AM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A broad area of low pressure continues over the western portions of the state. This will allow for multiple waves of precipitation to move across the Central/Western Interior and West Coast over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, the positioning of the trough has set up southerly flow across the Interior. This will allow for warm, dry, and windy conditions to persist through the middle portions of the week. However, another surface low will work its way into the northern Gulf of Alaska, stationing itself in a favorable setup for some wrap around precipitation into the Interior starting Wednesday night. In addition, the southerly flow through coming over the Alaska Range will allow for additional chances for Wind Advisory Criteria winds through the Alaska Range passes today and Thursday. High water along the Lower Yukon River has caused flooding impacts in Grayling, Holy Cross, and Russian Mission. Flood Warnings have been issued for these communities. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated to scattered showers continue across the Interior, today, with a non-zero chance of embedded thunderstorms amongst the showers. - Best chances for thunderstorms today will be across the middle portions of the Central Interior. - Another round of gusty southerly winds are expected through the Alaska Range passes today. Wind gusts through Isabel and Windy Pass are expected to be between 45 and 55 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Isabel Pass and Delta Junction. - Mostly dry conditions expected across the Interior interrupted by occasional rain showers. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Delta Junction. - Seasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue across the Interior through much of the week. West Coast and Western Interior... - Gusty S-SE winds are expected across the West Coast this afternoon with an upper-level shortwave passage. - Thunderstorm chances for this afternoon shift north over the central portions of the Western Interior. - Showery conditions are expected along the Lower Yukon and Yukon Delta regions throughout the week. Heavier showers are expected today and Thursday. These showers will be mostly rain, especially nearer the Western Interior, but some periods of snow and light wintry mix are possible near St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Showery conditions are expected to continue along the southern portions of the Brooks Range today. Little to no precipitation is expected across the North Slope. - Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes. - Breezy northeasterly winds along the Western North Slope weaken slightly and shift more easterly. E to ENE winds 15 to 25 mph are expected across the Arctic Coast through Wednesday. - Low clouds and areas of fog persist across the Arctic Coast and will likely remain through much of the week, especially along the Eastern Arctic Coast. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... Not much change to the overall forecast as persistence continues to hold on strong. The main driver of the forecast continues to be the Bering low that has slowly been filling in since yesterday afternoon. Farther north, high pressure continues to linger over the Arctic. This has resulted in a decent pressure gradient across the state, with the strongest winds occurring around peak heating. High pressure is expected to continue overthe Arctic for much of the forecast period, allowing the easterly winds, fog, and cooler conditions to continue across the North Slope. A shortwave continues to make its way, NW, toward the Norton Sound. Guidance shows the surface low to move around St. Lawrence Island and get wrapped back in to the flow of the trough over the Bering. As this happens, another low will be moving east along the Aleutians. Models show this low to gradually weaken as it progress, reaching Bristol Bay coast sometime Thursday afternoon. This set-up will allow for the broad troughing to continue across northern Alaska, which will result in isolated showers and non- zero chances for thunderstorms through the end of the week. Compared to the previous low, this one is able to progress farther east, which will be a better set up for potential gap winds as bands of energy move across the Alaska Range over the coming days. The strongest gap winds are expected to be today and Thursday. To add on, latest model runs have shown the low to fill in slower with each run, which could help keep the surface gradient tighter as it moves towards Bristol Bay. This will play more of a role for the increased wind potential on Thursday. Meanwhile, another low will move into the northern Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday afternoon. Models are showing the potential for the low to set up between the 150 and 140 longitude lines, allowing the potential for wrap around precipitation into some portions of the Interior. Nonetheless, the prevailing southerly flow over the Alaska Range could keep areas north of the range drier with the downsloping. This, in combination with the previously mentioned gap winds, could bring Red Flag conditions through Isabel Pass and Delta Junction today and Thursday when the winds are strongest. With this next low showing the potential to progress farther east than the previous one, this will allow for easterly flow to return across portions of the Northern Interior and Yukon Flats by Thursday. These will be the best chances for isolated thunderstorms on Thursday as models are showing cape values to be around 150 J/kg, which is more than enough to get a pop-up thunderstorm with the help of topographical forcing. This will spread across to other portions of the Interior by the end of the week as a series of lows continue to move into the northern Gulf of Alaska. && .FIRE WEATHER... The overall pattern remains mostly the same through much of the week with a low in the Bering Sea and ridging over Western Canada. This pattern will continue to support broad southerly flow across the region. Downsloping effects will work to keep most of the central and eastern Interior dry and warm with a few afternoon rain showers possible. Accumulations should remain light with localized higher amounts expected in southwest Alaska and where thunderstorms are present. Although chances are low, a non-zero chance for lightning is possible this afternoon across portions central portions of the Western and Central Interior. Thunderstorm chances largely diminish after today with a slight chance for very isolated thunderstorm development later this week across the Interior, Brooks Range, and Yukon Flats. Expect high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the 40s through the week, with min RH values ranging between 20 to 30% in the central and eastern Interior and 30 to 40% in the western Interior. The greatest area of fire concern this week will be near Delta Junction as strong southerly gap winds develop Tuesday and Thursday through Isabel Pass. Sustained winds between 20 to 30 mph gusting as high as 55 mph are possible this afternoon with similar conditions expected to develop again Thursday as the pressure gradient over the Alaska Range restrengthens later this week. A Red Flag Warning was issued for DeltaJunction beginning this afternoon through late Tuesday night for a combination of dry fuels, strong winds, and dry air with min RHs values near 25%. We will continue to monitor the situation near Delta Junction on Thursday as conditions are expected to near critical fire weather criteria once again. && .HYDROLOGY... Yukon River: The breakup front on the Yukon has passed Russian Mission. As of Monday morning, an ice jam was reported downstream of Russian Mission that has caused water levels to rise. A Flood Warning remains in effect. Water remains high on the Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt and the Yuki Ice Jam release. Water has inundated the road to the airport at Grayling and Holy Cross. Flood warnings have been issued. High water is expected to continue until the ice jam releases. Water levels will likely rise near the jam as higher water levels continue to move downstream towards the jam. Water levels are continuing to drop at Galena and beginning to drop at Koyukuk. No additional water level rises are expected at Koyukuk or Galena. As of 1:50pm AKDT, Monday, the river gauge at Galena shows the water levels dropping down to 122.6 ft which is below the minor flooding stage. Buckland River: Water levels are falling and the river upstream of Buckland is open. Open leads have been reported downstream of Buckland and flooding is no longer expected. Chena: The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than normal, but likely remaining below action stage. Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... To start the extended time frame on Friday, a front will have pushed well into the Interior ahead of a low in southwestern Alaska. This will bring another chance for scattered thunderstorms across a good portion of the Interior on Friday. High pressure in the Arctic will allow for persistent easterly winds to blow along the Arctic coast and northerly winds along the West Coast through the weekend. Along the front in the Northern Interior and in the Seward Peninsula/Kotzebue Sound area will be a band of numerous rain showers, with scattered showers in the Southern Interior in its wake. Periods of heavy snowfall will also be possible in the Alaska Range, with gap winds diminishing by mid to late Friday. As the front crosses the Brooks Range by Saturday morning, snow will decrease in the Alaska Range, with scattered showers continuing on the north side, including on the North Slope. Generally warm conditions will persist throughout the period south of the Brooks Range, with highs in the 50s and 60s. The West Coast will likely see highs in the 30s and 40s, with 20s and 30s on the North Slope. Additional showers will be possible across Northern Alaska early next week ahead of another potential system in southwestern Alaska. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Flood Watch for AKZ826-830. Red Flag Warning for AKZ937. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. && $$ Twombly MacKay - Extended Santiago - Fire Wx  865 FXUS62 KTAE 191324 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 924 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 924 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through late week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through the next few days with coverage increasing this weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .UPDATE... Issued at 924 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The previous forecast appears to be on track. No major changes were made. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The region remains on the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge with the surface high meandering in the western Atlantic. Aloft, mid/upper ridge arcs from the southern Gulf northeast to off the Atlantic coast while an upper low is situated in the Bahamas. Further west, longwave troughing extends through the Rockies into the eastern Pacific. In between the trough and ridge is a cold front stretching southwest from the Great Lakes to western Texas. Ridging will remain in place through this week despite the upper low trying to make it to the southeast coast then ridging will strengthen as the upper low translates south into the Caribbean. The central CONUS trough tries to move east but is essentially blocked by the upper ridge with shortwaves riding within the longwave flow over the ridge into southern Canada. The aforementioned cold front stalls in northern Alabama and Georgia Thursday then pushes north Friday and gradually dissipates this weekend. Around our neck of the woods, PWATs are around 1.2-1.3 inches today and Wednesday with limited 850-700mb moisture and stronger drier air aloft from 700-500mb. This will lead to less coverage of convection (20-40%) each afternoon, less cloud cover, and above normal high temperatures. Highs will be in the low 90s and pushing mid 90s in some locations which will set heat index values in the mid to upper 90s and close to 100F. PWATs begin a gradual increase Thursday though convection appears limited to the east coast seabreeze. Friday into the weekend, the western Atlantic high pressure shifts eastward with not as much dry mid level air as in mid week. PWATs increase to 1.7+ inches which, along with surface winds becoming more southerly, should increase seabreeze and diurnally driven convection each day. Rainfall chances increase to 40-60% heading into the weekend. With the added rainfall and potential cloud cover, high temperatures won't be as hot with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. However, with the added moisture, heat index values will still run in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A brief period of possible MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible for DHN and VLD this morning as low stratus or fog may develop around daybreak but should soon dissipate. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will shift southerly for ECP and DHN with the afternoon sea breeze before going calm by this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure will be the dominate weather feature across the northeast Gulf waters through the period producing light to occasionally moderate southeast to south winds and one to three foot seas into the first half of the upcoming weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Good dispersions are expected the rest of the week, though a few pockets of high dispersions may occur Thursday and Friday, as mixing heights will range 5500-7000 feet and transport winds of 10 mph. Moisture will continue to filter into the area keeping afternoon humidities above 40% each day. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible along the afternoon sea breeze. Some of these storms may produce gusty, erratic winds as well as frequent lightning strikes. Chances for rain gradually increases each day and especially into this upcoming weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week, however, better chances will reside beginning this weekend. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 70 92 70 / 10 0 10 10 Panama City 87 71 87 70 / 10 0 20 0 Dothan 91 70 91 69 / 0 0 20 10 Albany 91 69 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 92 67 92 69 / 20 0 0 0 Cross City 93 67 93 69 / 40 10 10 10 Apalachicola 85 74 85 71 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Scholl  925 FXAK67 PAJK 191326 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 526 AM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Brief lull Tuesday with weak ridging over the panhandle and lingering showers, primarily for the northern panhandle. - Wednesday a gale force system brings widespread rain to the region. && .SHORT TERM...A weak mid level trough will push into the ridge over the panhandle Tuesday morning. Satellite observations reveal little to no breaks in cloud cover over the panhandle. This lack of clearing limited cooling overnight and subsequent fog development, with most communities staying just above 40 degrees as of 5am. The upper level ridge over the panhandle is still expected to sharpen Tuesday, giving a better chance for clearing through the day for the southern panhandle, particularly communities along Clarence Strait. Isolated showers will still remain possible for the northern mountains, with breaks over the inner channels. By late tonight, a developing gale force low will push a front towards the panhandle. This front will bring deteriorating conditions to the gulf waters and moderate to locally heavy rainfall to the panhandle Wednesday. The northeast and outer gulf coast are currently slated to see the highest storm totals of around 2 inches in 24 hours, with generally 1 to 1.5 inches expected for other communities in the panhandle from Cape Decision northward to Icy Strait. The southern panhandle south of Cape Decision should see an inch or less over the same timeframe. The associated surface front is currently expected to push into the panhandle late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a westerly wind shift. .LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Monday / Thursday will likely be showers or fading shower activity in a post weather front (Wednesday's) situation. The associated low feature near Prince William Sound weakens and will be getting absorbed during Thursday/Thursday night into the front from a low over Bristol Bay. The new front sweeps the western gulf Thursday and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night. Yakutat should Good rain rates Thursday night. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend. For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / The models here are still trying to settle into a pattern. Indications are that a system will spin into the Gulf of Alaska, mainly for Sunday, however its intensity and track are uncertain at this point. Ensemble means and a variety of operational models are trending toward a 995 to 1000 mb low heading in the general direction of Dixon Entrance by Sunday night, but there are indications the low could be as strong as 985 mb, and some outliers are pointing toward a much further south track and weaker low. Overall the weekend may be cool and damp or could be wet and windy, especially over the southern panhandle on Sunday depending on how this system evolves. && .AVIATION.../through Tuesday night/...Mostly VFR flight conditions are expected through the period. CIGs 4-6kft could occasionally dip down to MVFR with weak onshore flow bringing a few light showers, mainly across the northern panhandle. For PAYA, showers will become more prevalent through the period, with MVFR VIS/CIGs becoming likely by this afternoon. Winds will generally be on the lighter side less than 10kts through the period. Stronger winds around 10G20kts for PAHN and around 20G30kts for PAGY as the gradient remains over the northern panhandle. Decreasing winds and increasing near surface moisture could lead to patchy fog development tonight, mainly across the southern panhandle. However, confidence not high enough to bring significant VIS/CIGs reductions into the 12Z taf issuance. LLWS will increase for PAYA late tonight as the next front approaches and winds 2kft aloft become 30-40kt. && .MARINE... Winds continue to diminish in the wake of a front which moved through on Sunday, although respectable southerly flow will persist in Northern Lynn Canal through the foreseeable future. A system moving across the Gulf on Tuesday arrives in SE AK on Wednesday, bringing gale force winds to the N and NE Gulf Coast, and small craft conditions to the inner channels. Outside coastal waters: Winds have diminished substantially in the wake of the last system, and seas have trended down overnight down to 6 to 7 ft for most areas based upon buoy observations. Winds will trend upwards again on Tuesday across the Gulf, and by Tuesday night for the outer coast, as another system approaches SE AK. Expect the strongest winds to be largely focused around the northern gulf and gulf coast, though gale force winds could extend as far south as Cape Edgecumbe. Waveheights should ramp back up as this system moves in, reaching 12-15 ft on Wednesday. Winds and waveheights then diminish late Wednesday into Thursday as the system departs. Inside Channels: Similar to Sunday night, winds across the inner channels diminished overnight Monday into Tuesday. The lone exception once again was Lynn Canal, where elevated southerly flow of ~20 kt persist. Winds will ramp back up to 10-15 kt on Tuesday across the board, as southerly flow is sustained by a weak wave moving onshore. Wednesday will see widespread sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30 kt as a strong warm front moves onshore, alongside elevated seas, with ocean entrances reaching 10+ feet, and areas where swell reaches seeing additional inclement conditions. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032-033-053-641>644-651-661>663. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...Bezenek/EAL AVIATION...DS MARINE...STJ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  943 FXUS61 KCAR 191327 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME Issued by National Weather Service Burlington VT 927 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Have updated PoPs over the next few hours as showers remain isolated to far northern Maine && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance for thunderstorms and warm temperatures this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. 2) Below average temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday and Saturday mornings across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for thunderstorms and warm temperatures this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Low pressure system, mid-level shortwave, and associated warm front moves through the region this morning. Region warms ahead of warm frontal passage, raising the daytime highs to roughly upper 60s in the north, and low 80s in the Central Highlands, and mid-80s in the Bangor and Downeast region. Maine stays within the warm sector of this frontal system until cold front passes Wednesday night. As a result, daytime highs on Wednesday are near the upper-70s in the north, mid-80s in the Central Highlands and Bangor regions. Instability rises during the afternoon on Tuesday, bringing with it the chance for some thunderstorms across the Central Highlands, and Bangor to Downeast regions. Based on sounding analysis, there is generally 1,000 2,000 J/kg of CAPE, decent shear parameters, and PWATs roughly around 1.25-2.0 inches. The main threat with these storms seems to be severe wind gusts, as low-level lapse rates are decently steep and DCAPE values around 600-800 J/kg. There is room for some hail development in some of these stronger storms. Thunderstorm chances decrease as the sun sets. Primarily random single cell storms that pop-up, so hard to pin-point an exact location of storm development. Generally, anticipating anywhere in the I-95 corridor and south has the best chances of seeing a severe thunderstorm, gusty winds, and small hail. Tornado threat is non-zero, based on favorable instability (helicity and LCL heights), but gusty winds and small hail are the primary threats. As cold front approaches Wednesday, there is another chance for some thunderstorms. Soundings show 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, 500-600 J/kg of DCAPE, and decent lapse rates. Most favorable parameters for any thunderstorms, are confined to the Downeast and eastern Maine region, during the afternoon into evening period. Regardless of storm development, however, is that there is expected to be some gusty winds during the day (gusts 30mph are possible during the afternoon). KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday and Saturday mornings across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The frost/freeze program will expand across much of the rest of northern and eastern Maine on Thursday except across the North Woods and Saint John Valley, where it begins on June 1. Strong cold air advection is expected Thursday behind a cold front, with 1000-500mb thicknesses dropping below 540dam for much of the northern half of the forecast area by Thursday night. With a strong jet streak overhead and moderate surface pressure gradient, decoupling is less likely except across the most sheltered valley locations. Some cloud cover is also possible late. Drier air with dew points in the mid 20s may also prevent frost formation. Even without frost, some damage to plants is possible in these conditions as 2 meter temperatures fall into the mid 30s north of Baxter State Park. By Friday night the surface ridge of high pressure extends over the area from central Quebec. This will lead to lighter winds and a better chance of decoupling over more areas, especially the lower elevations of northern Maine. Low temperatures into early Saturday morning may be a few to several degrees lower than blended guidance as a result. Dew points will also be higher in the upper 20s and lower 30s, leading to more frost formation potential across northern zones. Below average temperatures will continue for Saturday and Saturday night, but a moderation is expected as high pressure moves over and eventually east of the area. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Today: MVFR, potentially lower in terminals with severe thunderstorms. Chance for some morning fog at KBHB, that will burn off as the sun rises. Best chance for thunderstorms is during the afternoon into evening. Moving through thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and small hail. Light winds from the W/SW today. Potential for wind gusts to 20kts. LLWS in the morning. Tonight: VFR at southern terminals, and potential for MVFR at northern terminals in rain showers and low ceilings. SW winds at 5-10 kts. LLWS overnight. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in any stronger thunderstorms. Best chance for thunderstorms are at southern terminals during the afternoon into evening period. WSW winds around 10-15 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts possible. Wednesday night to Thursday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Thursday night: VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts. Friday: VFR. NW winds NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Friday night to Saturday: VFR with light and variable winds, increasing to around 5-10 kts during the day.&& .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for outer waters in effect for tonight into Wednesday, with seas around 5ft and some wind gusts to 25kts possible. Chance for some marine fog this morning. Chance for passing rain today, and chance for rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday. SW winds today into Wednesday. Winds and seas are likely to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday night through early next week. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for outer waters in effect for tonight into Wednesday, with seas around 5ft and some wind gusts to 25kts possible. Chance for some marine fog this morning. Chance for passing rain today, and chance for rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday. SW winds today into Wednesday. Winds and seas are likely to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday night through early next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/MWS/BTV JS AVIATION...ASB/MWS  108 FXAK68 PAFC 191331 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 531 AM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... The overall weather pattern is expected to be much the same over the next couple of days as several shortwaves continue to pass over Southcentral. Gusty southerly gap winds will continue through this evening. Rain showers will pass over Anchorage and the western Kenai peninsula this morning, otherwise, expect drier conditions this afternoon. Persistent rain will continue along the north Gulf coast and southern portions of the Copper River Basin through Wednesday morning. Additionally, rain showers are likely in the Susitna Valley through early this afternoon before drying out. Inland areas will remain drier this afternoon through tonight before a new low tracking out of the North Pacific moves toward Southcentral on Wednesday. Winds lighten ahead of this low, bringing an end to downslope drying and leading to increasing chances of widespread light rain inland. Southcentral will dry out again Wednesday night, but a new Bering low will send a frontal system toward Kodiak and the western Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday, as the active weather pattern continues. KM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows another wave of low pressure is tracking through Southwest Alaska this morning while our broader vertically stacked upper low remains centered just west of the Pribilof Islands. The passage of the smaller wave through Southwest is contributing mildly gusty southeasterly winds from the Western Alaska Range into the Kuskokwim Valley. Gusts are peaking at around 25 mph from Dillingham to Iliamna while King Salmon is gusting in the 30 mph range. Much of the stronger winds will diminish through midday to early afternoon as the wave of low pressure exits the region to the north. At the same time, however, the vertically stacked low over the Bering will begin to lift northeastward as an open wave trough and clip the YK Delta later this evening, resulting in increasing southerly winds and increasing showers across the Kuskokwim Delta through tonight. The next storm system is forecast to take shape later this evening as a Kamchatka low deepens down into the ~975 mb range immediately south of Shemya. The low then tracks along the Aleutian Chain through Wednesday, eventually threading the Pribilof Islands and Dutch Harbor en route to the Kuskokwim Coast early Friday morning. Gales will be possible ahead and south of the low as it moves eastward, with cold air advection potentially promoting storm force gusts between Atka and Nikolski midday Wednesday. The low begins a weakening trend thereafter with small craft winds and higher gusts becoming the primary hazard along and through the Alaska Peninsula into Thursday. The lone bright spot in the forecast may be across Southwest Alaska on Wednesday, as conditions relax and skies clear in- between the departing Bering Sea low and the arrival of the deepening Kamchatka low. Until then, scattered showers will be the norm through tonight with a very low threat of an isolated wet thunderstorm or two near Lime Village this afternoon. -BL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... A broad upper level low anchored over the Bering Sea looks to continue to remain in place through the long term. Several shortwaves rotating around this low across the western Bering, North Pacific, and into the Gulf will continue to support the active pattern and unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska through this weekend. Models are in good agreement to begin the long term period as the late week low in the eastern Bering pushes inland into Southwest Alaska, spreading rain chances across much of the region from the Gulf into Interior Southwest and Southcentral heading into the weekend. This system will be quickly followed by a series of two subsequent low pressure systems lifting out of the North Pacific, with the first being this weekend and the second early next week. Models begin to slightly differ on the exact timing and northward progression of each of these lows, but the ensemble mean consensus generally has the lows tracking south and along the Aleutian Chain and into the Gulf. Elevated winds accompanied by light to moderate rainfall with each system can be expected along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula before pushing into the Gulf, with the heaviest precipitation expected along the immediate Gulf coast. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and gusty southeasterly winds are expected to continue. Light rain will begin this morning and ending by early afternoon. The gusty conditions will prevail until the evening. && $$  375 FXUS61 KCAR 191327 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME Issued by National Weather Service Burlington VT 927 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Have updated PoPs over the next few hours as showers remain isolated to far northern Maine && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance for thunderstorms and warm temperatures this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. 2) Below average temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday and Saturday mornings across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for thunderstorms and warm temperatures this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Low pressure system, mid-level shortwave, and associated warm front moves through the region this morning. Region warms ahead of warm frontal passage, raising the daytime highs to roughly upper 60s in the north, and low 80s in the Central Highlands, and mid-80s in the Bangor and Downeast region. Maine stays within the warm sector of this frontal system until cold front passes Wednesday night. As a result, daytime highs on Wednesday are near the upper-70s in the north, mid-80s in the Central Highlands and Bangor regions. Instability rises during the afternoon on Tuesday, bringing with it the chance for some thunderstorms across the Central Highlands, and Bangor to Downeast regions. Based on sounding analysis, there is generally 1,000 2,000 J/kg of CAPE, decent shear parameters, and PWATs roughly around 1.25-2.0 inches. The main threat with these storms seems to be severe wind gusts, as low-level lapse rates are decently steep and DCAPE values around 600-800 J/kg. There is room for some hail development in some of these stronger storms. Thunderstorm chances decrease as the sun sets. Primarily random single cell storms that pop-up, so hard to pin-point an exact location of storm development. Generally, anticipating anywhere in the I-95 corridor and south has the best chances of seeing a severe thunderstorm, gusty winds, and small hail. Tornado threat is non-zero, based on favorable instability (helicity and LCL heights), but gusty winds and small hail are the primary threats. As cold front approaches Wednesday, there is another chance for some thunderstorms. Soundings show 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, 500-600 J/kg of DCAPE, and decent lapse rates. Most favorable parameters for any thunderstorms, are confined to the Downeast and eastern Maine region, during the afternoon into evening period. Regardless of storm development, however, is that there is expected to be some gusty winds during the day (gusts 30mph are possible during the afternoon). KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday and Saturday mornings across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The frost/freeze program will expand across much of the rest of northern and eastern Maine on Thursday except across the North Woods and Saint John Valley, where it begins on June 1. Strong cold air advection is expected Thursday behind a cold front, with 1000-500mb thicknesses dropping below 540dam for much of the northern half of the forecast area by Thursday night. With a strong jet streak overhead and moderate surface pressure gradient, decoupling is less likely except across the most sheltered valley locations. Some cloud cover is also possible late. Drier air with dew points in the mid 20s may also prevent frost formation. Even without frost, some damage to plants is possible in these conditions as 2 meter temperatures fall into the mid 30s north of Baxter State Park. By Friday night the surface ridge of high pressure extends over the area from central Quebec. This will lead to lighter winds and a better chance of decoupling over more areas, especially the lower elevations of northern Maine. Low temperatures into early Saturday morning may be a few to several degrees lower than blended guidance as a result. Dew points will also be higher in the upper 20s and lower 30s, leading to more frost formation potential across northern zones. Below average temperatures will continue for Saturday and Saturday night, but a moderation is expected as high pressure moves over and eventually east of the area. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Today: MVFR, potentially lower in terminals with severe thunderstorms. Chance for some morning fog at KBHB, that will burn off as the sun rises. Best chance for thunderstorms is during the afternoon into evening. Moving through thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and small hail. Light winds from the W/SW today. Potential for wind gusts to 20kts. LLWS in the morning. Tonight: VFR at southern terminals, and potential for MVFR at northern terminals in rain showers and low ceilings. SW winds at 5-10 kts. LLWS overnight. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in any stronger thunderstorms. Best chance for thunderstorms are at southern terminals during the afternoon into evening period. WSW winds around 10-15 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts possible. Wednesday night to Thursday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Thursday night: VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts. Friday: VFR. NW winds NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Friday night to Saturday: VFR with light and variable winds, increasing to around 5-10 kts during the day.&& .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for outer waters in effect for tonight into Wednesday, with seas around 5ft and some wind gusts to 25kts possible. Chance for some marine fog this morning. Chance for passing rain today, and chance for rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday. SW winds today into Wednesday. Winds and seas are likely to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday night through early next week. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for outer waters in effect for tonight into Wednesday, with seas around 5ft and some wind gusts to 25kts possible. Chance for some marine fog this morning. Chance for passing rain today, and chance for rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday. SW winds today into Wednesday. Winds and seas are likely to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday night through early next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/MWS/BTV JS AVIATION...ASB/MWS  461 FXUS63 KLSX 191348 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 848 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE... Issued at 842 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Convective complex continues to nudge southward into Arkansas this morning with stratiform rain spreading through central Missouri and occasionally as far east as the Mississippi River. We have given some consideration to canceling the Flood Watch early as rainfall rates in the stratiform rain region have been quite minor. However, some convective redevelopment along the front noted in southwest Missouri behind the stratiform rain indicates we can still get some higher rainfall rates if this convection spreads northeast. So we will maintain the Flood Watch until expiration at 1PM, but the overall threat is much more limited at this point than it was yesterday. Latest update to the Day1 Convective Outlook from SPC also has shifted the severe threat southeast with the idea that the clouds and stratiform rain will limit instability ahead of the front today until the front arrives near our southeastern CWA border late this afternoon. This is consistent with our thinking as well as the severe weather threat is greatly reduced, with the remaining threat tied to redevelopment of instability ahead of the front which may take quite some time considering the clouds and rain this morning. Kimble && .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue today with a more limited chance of severe thunderstorms or flooding compared to prior days. - Cooler and less humid weather arrives behind today's cold front. The next round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms is Thursday night into Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Latest analysis of radar imagery reveals a complex of thunderstorms working its way eastward across the area. Currently (as of 0730z), the leading edge of this activity is pushing into west-central IL, east-central MO, and points southwestward toward Springfield MO. Over the last few hours, this complex has gradually been weakening with eastward extent, with scattered clusters of convection along the leading edge, followed by widespread stratiform rain. Nearly all of this convection is now outflow dominant with a gust front out ahead of the leading edge producing scattered gusts up to 40mph, which has generally been tied closely to the stronger convective clusters. Steepened mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 degrees C) and a strong 50kt LLJ are both working to keep convection semi-organized along portions of the leading edge. As a result, this complex of thunderstorms will continue to be capable of 30-40mph winds, with gusts near 50mph possible ahead of stronger convective development that percolate throughout the morning. The favorable environment highlighted above for these potential stronger convective segments is generally along and south of the I-70 corridor. As these showers and thunderstorms continue to filter into the area this morning, the threat for flooding will also continue. A majority if the area received 1-2" of rain yesterday with some locations getting 3-5", generally along I-70 and about 50 miles to the south. Locations that experienced these higher end amounts yesterday will be more susceptible to flooding today. In fact, an additional 1-2" within a 3hr period today may be enough to lead to flash flooding for some locations. High resolution guidance varies significantly on the evolution of showers and thunderstorms today, with the general consensus that showers and pockets of thunderstorms gradually wane into the late morning or early afternoon. Given all of the variables mentioned above, the risk of heavy rainfall has prompted us to continue the Flash Flood Watch, which is now in effect until this afternoon. Residents should continue to monitor the latest forecast and be prepared to seek higher ground if a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area. Latest surface analysis reveals a surface low lifting northeast into WI, with a cold front stretching southwestward into northwest MO. This front is modeled by guidance to gradually slide southeast throughout the morning, approaching northeast MO by late this morning. Ample low-level CAA and thick stratus behind the front will mitigate the severe weather threat in the post-frontal airmass. Uncertainty remains with how quickly the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon/evening. Lingering showers and ample clouds will lower the severe risk or push the risk further south, while less showers/clouds would increase the risk and lead to a more widespread severe storm threat this afternoon/evening. Regardless, instability and mid-level flow are still forecast to be sufficient enough to support organized storms with potential for large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Any lingering outflow boundaries from convection this morning may serve as areas of focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Peine && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Morning through Monday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low-level cold air advection along with potential lingering cloud cover, within the post-frontal airmass, will lead to much cooler conditions for Wednesday, with highs forecast to be around 10-15 degrees below average. Quasi-zonal flow aloft encompasses the region through the end of the week, which should allow for a period of dry conditions until Friday. By the end of the week, long-range guidance shows a southern stream shortwave lifting northeast and merging into the downstream end of a northern stream longwave trough near the Great Plains. Low-level flow ahead of these features appears to remain easterly, which would limit moisture return along with rain chances. Regardless, the evolution of these features leads to the return of rain chances Thursday night into Friday, with the LREF 6hr probabilities for accumulated precipitation reaching a widespread 80% on Friday for the area. Chances for precipitation look to remain limited this weekend as probabilities stay below 20% for a majority of the area. A gradual warmup is also forecast as LREF temperature IQRs increase to temperatures right around climatological normals by next week. Peine && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A broad region of showers with occasional lightning mostly across MO continues to slide southeastward with the heaviest precipitation across central/south-central MO. For KCOU/KJEF, showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are possible through 16z, while KUIN and the St. Louis metro terminals should experience on and off showers through 15-16z. Most of the showers will not impact visibilities, with the exception of heavier showers/thunderstorms that may lead to brief MVFR visibilities. There is a low chance (30%) for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening near and south of the St. Louis metro, which has led to the inclusion of a PROB30 group. Highly variable ceilings accompany the area of showers with scattered pockets of very low ceilings, around 500ft, underneath the more broad and consistent 6-10kft cloud deck. A majority of these scattered ceilings near 500ft have been across central/northeast MO with more widespread ceilings of this nature to the north and west near a cold front that is across western MO/southern IA. As this cold front approaches today, ceilings are forecast to lower at all terminals with widespread low MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across the area. Ceilings at below airport minimums are possible, with the best chance for this at KCOU/KJEF, followed by KUIN, with a low chance for impacts to this magnitude at the St. Louis metro terminals. Guidance has continued to indicate that conditions are slow to improve, with possible impacts from low ceilings lasting into the day on Wednesday. Southerly surface winds around 10kts veer to the north behind a cold front that passes from north to south today with northerly winds prevailing into tomorrow. Peine && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX  957 FXUS63 KIND 191350 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 950 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms and locally heavy rain possible again this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and localized flooding the primary concerns - Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite imagery shows clearing across central Indiana with signs of a remnant outflow boundary from upstream convection last night. Thicker overcast skies are found to the west of this outflow boundary, slowly moving eastward this morning. There should be a couple of hours of efficient solar insolation this morning before these clouds arrive. High-resolution guidance that shows the clearing well also depicts rapid destabilization (to between 1500- 2500 J/Kg MLCAPE) through this period. As such, renewed convective activity appears likely again this afternoon. In terms of hazards, RAP soundings indicate that some mid-level dry air may be present today. Shear is modest, under 25 knots on average. However, steep lapse rates and DCAPE values around 1000 J/Kg could lead to downbursts and efficient cold pool production. The 25 knots of shear may also be enough to allow for loose organization into multicell clusters. Therefore, strong to damaging wind gusts are possible with storms today. The wind threat diminishes after sunset as the column moistens and lapse rates weaken slightly. RAP soundings show the atmosphere becoming more efficient for rainfall production overnight (deep warm cloud layer, saturation to the EL, and moist adiabatic lapse rates). A cold front sagging south across Indiana will interact with an MCV approaching from the southwest, prolonging large-scale lift tonight. Most guidance is on board with showers and thunderstorms continuing on and off through the night. There is a signal for heavy rain within most guidance with pockets of 1 to 3 inches across the southern half of our area. QPF coverage in guidance isn't as widespread as yesterday, but these pockets tend to line up where the heaviest rain fell. Additional flooding may be possible tonight and trends will need to be monitored closely. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)... Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Today and Tonight - Quiet but mostly cloudy conditions are expected early this morning. The rapidly weakening northern extent of a line of showers currently over western Illinois will move into the area this morning and may produce some light rain in spots, though somewhat more substantial rain and thunderstorm chances will wait until later in the day when the cold front approaches the region. Ample instability and modest deep layer shear will exist to promote organization of developing convection this afternoon, and at least a localized severe threat, primarily driven by wind, will exist. This threat will persist into the evening hours when the front pushes through. Hydrologic concerns, particularly given precipitable water values near the top end of climatology and widespread significant rainfall yesterday of 1.5 to 3+ inches, will be at least an equal concern to the severe threat, with flash flood guidance values as low as three quarters of an inch in one hour across central Indiana. HREF probability matched means indicate at least a low chance of reaching these amounts in a few areas through tonight, though perhaps not quite enough for another flood watch. Wednesday through Monday - Once the front has pushed south of the area, it will stall out a bit, though high pressure passing through the Great Lakes in its wake will keep it suppressed to the south and allow for both a brief cooldown and a break in precip chances from late Wednesday into Thursday evening. Rain chances return late week into early next week as a large upper level low swings through the northern tier of the country and pulls a warmer and moist airmass back into the area, though chances with the exception of Friday will be low for the time being given significant model inconsistencies and resulting uncertainty. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 653 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Impacts: - Wind gusts Tuesday 20-27KT - Showers and thunderstorms possible late this afternoon into this evening Discussion: A few showers or isolated storms are present over north central Indiana this morning, which will necessitate some VCSH early in the period. Winds will strengthen as mixing ramps up Tuesday morning, with gusts of 20-27KT likely through the day, generally from 210-230 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in the day as a cold front approaches and passes through the area. Winds with frontal passage will veer to westerly and northwesterly late in the period, with gusts ending in typical diurnal fashion this evening. Ceilings post frontal will likely drop into MVFR, though some IFR cannot be entirely ruled out. Later packages will refine this. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Eckhoff AVIATION...Nield DISCUSSION...Nield  128 FXUS61 KLWX 191357 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 957 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjusted PoPs for this afternoon. Otherwise, very little change was made. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. 2) Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. Another day of challenging record high temperatures given the strengthened upper level ridge over the region. After a warm start this morning in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s, temperatures will quickly surge. 850 mb temperatures will run +19 to +23 degrees C yielding highs well into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. The hottest temperatures look to be across the immediate I-95 metros and down into the central VA Piedmont where temperatures will run between 96 and 98 degrees. Heat index values will be similar to the air temperatures given the drier air at the surface and aloft. Even with that said, expect a slight bump in humidity with afternoon dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s making it uncomfortable for extended time outdoors. The strengthened ridge overhead combined with the high heat should put a lid on convection today. Still looking at a spotty shower or t- storm this afternoon and evening as another weak piece of energy passes through. Most of this convection will be tied to the mountains or perhaps the bay breeze given the lack of a mean lifting mechanism. Wednesday will mark the last day of the high heat before temperatures take a 25 to 30 degree nose dive late week. The front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Current 00z CAMS, and deterministic guidance show a prefrontal trough ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon with the actual front crossing Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The prefrontal trough will be the catalyst for strong to severe thunderstorms given the ample instability and increased shear ahead of the boundary. SPC continue to highlight the area in a Level 1 out of 5 Marginal Risk for severe weather with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. This aligns with the NCAR's AI NWP Convective Hazards Forecast currently has our region outlined in its 45%-60% probability for severe weather to occur, while CSU's Day 2 probabilities ranks the severe threat between 15 to 30 percent. Regardless of the severe threat, this front will likely result in widespread beneficial rain at a minimum as well as a 20-30 degree drop in temperatures expected later in the week. Lingering rain showers may still be moving out of the area by Thursday morning, while a meandering front to the south could bring additional rain showers to the region. Highs Wednesday will push back into the low to mid 90s with a few upper 90s across the I-95 metros and down into the Piedmont region. Mountain locations will be a touch cooler in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. The synoptic scale pattern will remain relatively stagnant through the long term period, with weak upper troughing off to our west over the Ohio Valley, and surface high pressure off to our north and northeast. This will lead to a pattern where marine influence low- level easterly flow is nearly continuously overrun by south to southwesterly flow aloft. This persistent warm advection regime aloft atop stable low-level air will lead to cloudy skies with on and off showers Thursday through Monday. This will bring much needed, beneficial rains to the forecast area, with ensemble means showing around one to two inches of rain across much of the forecast area during that time. Highs Thursday will take a 25 to 30 degree dive behind the front with many locations struggling to push 70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to run below normal on Friday, struggling to make it into the 60s. Ensemble guidance shows much larger spread in temperatures Saturday through Monday, with some solutions keeping us locked into low cloud cover and temperatures in the 50s/60s, while some other solutions try to break us out of the low clouds, causing temperatures to climb into the 70s. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue across the terminals through Wednesday morning as high pressure strengthens offshore. South/southwesterly winds are expected again today gusting between 15 to 20 kts during the afternoon and evening hours. Spotty shower and thunderstorm chances will occur this afternoon although coverage will be even less today given the strengthened high pressure overhead. With that said, did not add PROB30s in the TAFS today given the lack of confidence although the two areas of concern would be terminals near the terrain and close to the water given the bay breeze influence. Sub-VFR restrictions return at times Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Winds will remain out of the southwest ahead of the front before shifting back to the north and northwest Thursday. Some low CIGS may hang on through Wednesday night before lifting Thursday as the front sits south of the region. Periodic rain showers moving through the region on Thursday afternoon and evening bring additional sub-VFR periods at terminals Wind gusts could reach 15-20 knots on Thursday before gradually decreasing. Sub-VFR conditions appear likely on Friday and Saturday in association with low clouds and showers. Winds will generally be out of the east to southeast on both Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... SCA southerly channeling can be expected again this afternoon and evening. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest with gusts up to 25 kts. Winds may near low-end SCA levels in south to southwesterly flow on Wednesday, and then again in northerly flow on Thursday. SMWs appear possible Wednesday into Wednesday night as thunderstorms move over the waters. East to southeasterly winds may near low-end SCA levels late Thursday through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Here are some daily temperature records during the May 18-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)! Washington-Dulles (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+! Baltimore (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962) Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)! Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997) Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)! Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+! ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019)Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534-537>543. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/KJP/KRR/EST AVIATION...LFR/KJP/EST MARINE...LFR/KJP/EST