398 FXUS63 KJKL 191417 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1017 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Another very warm late spring day is underway across eastern Kentucky with temperatures already in the 70s to around 80F on their way to around 90F. Some isolated convection is still possible near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, only minor revisions were made to bring T/Td/Sky forecast into line with hourly observations. UPDATE Issued at 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 An update is out with minor revisions to hourly Sky and PoPs through this evening based on observed and model trends. Also updated latest hourly T/Td/Sky grids. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Upper ridging will gradually get nudged southeast through Wednesday as a cold front reaches the area and begins to stall near or over the area Wednesday afternoon. This stalling, or at least slowing down, of the cold front occurs as the upper flow becomes parallel to the cold front orientation. PoPs gradually increase from the west through Wednesday as the front approaches. Most if not all of the forecast area will stay dry today with the ridging trying to hold tough to the east and southeast while the front slowly makes progress, with highest chances at showers or a thunderstorm in the Bluegrass region. Chances for rain increase into the evening and overnight as mid- level heights begin to gradually fall, as shortwaves move up the Ohio River Valley, mostly but not completely skirting Eastern Kentucky. If a storm, or storms, were to reach the forecast area late this afternoon into this evening, there is sufficient shear and possibly instability to support an isolated severe storm in the Bluegrass region. The front reaches the CWA from the northwest late Wednesday afternoon, with a mid-level speed max of 35 to 45 kts developing during the day just north of the area possibly providing enough shear for an isolated strong to severe storm in the afternoon should sufficient instability exists, which looks likely at this time. The SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook expands the Marginal Risk into far eastern parts of the forecast area, but future outlooks may extend that further into the forecast area based on the forecast evolution and placement of this mid-level speed max. Highs will again threaten records in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, but temperatures will begin to trend lower as humidity and rain chances increase from the west and northwest for Wednesday, with current forecasts suggesting lower to mid 80s across the area, warmest in the Upper Big Sandy Basin where rain is likely to hold off the longest into the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it would be wet. The period will open Wednesday night with broad ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the Hudson Bay. This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally weak southwesterly flow aloft. With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the surface cold front that passed through during the day on Wednesday will struggle to continue it's forward momentum through into the Mid- Atlantic coastal states. Instead, it's currently poised to stall over the periphery of the ridge (TN area to the Mid-Atlantic) Wednesday night and Thursday, before lifting into Kentucky again as a warm front on Friday. This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; one for our entire area Wednesday and Wednesday night (though expect most of the rain to fall during the day Wednesday in the short term portion of the forecast), another for the Lake Cumberland area on Thursday, and a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows the chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate (maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, it should also be mentioned that the Lake Cumberland Region is in a moderate to severe drought - so any higher rain amounts that fall here will likely be beneficial. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for the north and upper 70s for the southern CWA. The previous forecast package noted that the NBM had 80s in the southern CWA, which appeared to be an outlier compared to other guidance given the frontal passage, and had to be manually lowered - so it's good to see the latest NBM has corrected this issue. After the front lifts northward again on Friday, flow will become more southerly across much of eastern KY, and temperatures will begin another warming trend accordingly. The NBM's highs on in the upper 70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but will see how this continues to trend as we move forward in time. Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet. The boundary will remain planted north of the CWA across the Ohio Valley, keeping much of Kentucky in the warm sector with good moisture advection. This will pair with a slow-moving upper level trough over the central CONUS (strengthening SW flow into the Commonwealth), in addition to potential embedded impulses moving across. The combination will result in rain chances from Saturday through Monday, peaking during the afternoon when heating/mixing/instability will be at it's max. Temperatures during this 3-day period will be fairly steady-state, if not increasing slightly each day as southerly flow continues. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while overnight low will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours, but will begin to deteriorate gradually from the northwest through the period with the approach of a cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms. Look for some cumulus to again develop this afternoon between 4 and 6 kft agl. PROB30 groups have been added to account for the low potential for showers and thunderstorms until after 06z tonight, when some sites go to prevailing showers. Light and variable winds will pick up out of the southwest over the next few hours with increasing daytime heating. Winds will increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 12 kts again with some gusts up to 20 kts for this afternoon, highest at KSYM and KIOB. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will keep a light southwest wind around 5 kts or so. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...FAGAN/JMW AVIATION...CMC  579 FXUS62 KJAX 191423 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1023 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today - Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early on Wednesday Morning for Inland Southeast GA - Isolated Afternoon & Early Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations through Friday. - Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area-Wide from Saturday through Memorial Day. - Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches. - Locally Dense Fog Late Tonight, Mainly for Inland Southeast GA. Surface high pressure ridge axis will remain stationed just north of the region with an easterly steering flow through the period. Drier air mass for mid-May time frame with PWATs less than 1.5 inches will only support widely scattered showers and isolated storms at times over the Atlantic Coastal waters and near the coast at night then moving inland across Northeast Florida and the I-75 corridor during the afternoon hours as the breezy East Coast sea breeze pushes inland with sustained winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts to 20- 25 mph at times. Max temps will remain slightly above normal with highs in the lower 90s inland, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Boundary layer cooling over inland areas will support low temps in the 60s and locally dense fog during the late night/early morning hours, but likely not significant enough to become widespread at this time. Onshore flow will keep Atlantic Coastal Min temps in the lower/middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily isolated thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor. Drier air in place will limit showers and storms over much of the area Wednesday and Thursday, however isolated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon over north central Florida, and again on Thursday afternoon over north central FL and near I-75. The persistent east-southeast flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up range from 15 mph to 20 mph each afternoon. Inland high temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s, whereas coastal highs will stay a little cooler with the sea breeze, in the mid to upper 80s I-95 eastward. Mild low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s both nights, with chances for patchy inland fog both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... - Warm temperatures continue through the weekend. - Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week. Rain and storm chances increase Saturday through Monday area- wide as southerly flow allows both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes to develop and meet in a more central location. Storms will primarily develop in the afternoons, beginning to dissipate around sunset. PWATs will trend towards the 1.5" to 1.75" range, possibly as high as 2" for some locations over SE GA by Sunday, which could lead to locally heavy downpours for any storms that develop. The hot temperatures will continue through the weekend as highs will rise to lower to mid 90s across inland locations outside of convective activity, while the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the upper 60s to 70s area- wide. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Periods of MVFR ceilingsaround 1,500 - 2,500 feet are expected at the Duval County terminals and SGJ through around 18Z terminals and SGJ, with ceilings then expected to rise to VFR levels of 3,500 - 4,000 feet by 19Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop just west of the GNV terminal after 19Z, but confidence remains too low to indicate anything other than vicinity shower coverage at this time. Shower activity should shift west of the GNV terminal by 22Z. Periods of IFR to LIFR conditions are expected after 05Z at VQQ. Easterly surface winds sustained around 10 knots at SGJ will increase to around 15 knots and gusty after 17Z. Easterly winds will increase to 5-10 knots elsewhere by 14Z, with speeds of 10-15 knots expected after 17Z. Speeds will gradually diminish after 02Z Wednesday. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure centered to Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states through the end of the week. Prevailing east to southeasterly winds will continue across our local waters during the next several days. A frontal boundary will briefly stall over the southeastern states late this week. Caution conditions will again be possible for the near shore waters from Friday through early next week as Atlantic high pressure becomes reinforced near Bermuda. Rip Currents: Persistent east to southeast winds and surf of 2-4 ft will keep a high risk of rip currents in place Today and at least a moderate risk at area beaches on Wednesday and Thursday, with high risks again possible from Friday through the upcoming Holiday weekend, as late afternoon and evening easterly wind surges potentially return. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersions This Week. The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon this week. With the persistent onshore flow, moisture will continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic, convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and coverage of showers and storms is expected. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the week. each day Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible this morning and Wednesday mornings for inland locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 64 90 66 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 87 71 85 74 / 0 10 0 0 JAX 90 65 89 69 / 0 10 10 0 SGJ 87 71 87 72 / 10 10 10 0 GNV 92 66 92 69 / 20 10 30 0 OCF 92 68 91 70 / 30 10 30 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None. && $$  804 FXUS63 KGLD 191430 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 830 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week, perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 830 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Frost Advisory has expired. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Frost Advisory: In the advisory area, a short period of frost is possible an hour or two on either side of sunrise this morning, when pervasive low ceilings (2000-3000 ft AGL at 0845Z) will begin to lift/scatter. Observational trends suggest that Yuma/Kit Carson counties are most at-risk for frost (relatively speaking). Low confidence in frost development, especially south of Hwy 36 where breezy (10-20 mph) north winds are more likely to persist through sunrise. Today: ~1025 mb surface high pressure in Wyoming at 06Z will build ESE over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas today. Expect decreasing cloud cover by sunrise and mostly clear skies by late morning as northerly low-level flow advects a drier airmass southward into the Tri-State Area. Winds will decrease to 5-10 mph by late morning to early afternoon (~16-19Z).. in concert with a weakening MSLP-850 mb height gradient. Clear skies / unimpeded insolation will foster a warming trend with highs ranging from the upper 50's to upper 60's. Tonight: Light N winds will shift to the E (this evening) and SE (early Wed morning) as the surface high over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas progresses slowly E toward northwest Missouri/western Iowa.. leading to modest low-level moisture return (850 mb dewpoints rising from -3 to 3C) by sunrise in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties. Strengthening mid- level (700-500 mb) warm advection in advance of an upper level wave.. a modest 250-350 mb trough / shear-axis progressing eastward from the 4-Corners to the central Rockies.. will foster increasing mid-level cloud cover (ceilings at/above ~7,000 ft AGL) this evening and overnight. Despite a modest increase in low-level moisture and an increasingly upslope component to low- level flow in eastern CO, guidance suggests that weak/neutral low-level thermal advection will be insufficient for low stratus development, and that.. mid-level warm advection, in of itself, will likely be insufficient to produce measurable precipitation (i.e. anything beyond virga/sprinkles) prior to sunrise. Expect overnight (Wed morning) lows in the upper 30's to lower 40's. Wednesday: Showers are possible over portions of the area, mainly west and north of Goodland during the late morning and early afternoon when/where mid-level warm advection will be strongest; enough to capitalize on/utilize modest elevated instability (~100-250 J/kg MUCAPE). Expect broken/overcast cloud cover over most or all of the area and ~10-20 mph SE winds with highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Thursday will see a stronger disturbance move out of the northern Rockies into western Colorado by the afternoon, then moving across the area Thursday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again. Instability will be limited by cloud cover, and models showing only weak SBCAPE of around 500 j/kg in the afternoon, mainly in Colorado. Deep layer shear will increase to 30-50 kts by 00z and may compensate somewhat for the weak instability in Colorado, where a marginally severe storm may be possible through the early evening before loss of heating. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Thursday night as the upper wave makes its way across the area. Additional rainfall amounts Thursday night are generally between 0.25" - 0.50", though locally higher amounts over 1" are possible. Temperatures on Thursday could remain in the 50s, especially north of Interstate 70, where clouds persist through the day, with perhaps 60s further south or west with limited clearing. Friday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough west of the Rocky Mountains. There is also a surface low forecast to set up somewhere in southwest Kansas. Ensembles do not fully align on the placement of this surface low. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to low 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the day as embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 30-60% increasing from southwest to northeast. The environment is forecast to be moderately unstable with CAPE values generally between 500-1000 J/kg for the region. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep the environment capped, reducing the risk for severe weather. If thunderstorms are able to form, small hail could occur with stronger storms. Skies will clear out Saturday and begin a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the southeast county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 522 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Early morning stratus continues to break up across the Tri- State area. CIGs continue to report around 2kft AGL at area terminals and will maintain limited coverage for a few more hours. Skies should become clear shortly after and remain that way for the bulk of the daytime Tuesday. Tonight, increasing mid-level clouds will arrive ahead of an approaching disturbance that may bring a return of low-end VFR/MVFR conditions towards the end of the period. At this time, confidence in precise timing and impacts remains limited and adjustments with later forecasts may be necessary. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...ICT  098 FXUS61 KOKX 191437 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1037 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot weather thru Wed. A heat advisory remains in effect for NE NJ and NYC. 2) An isold tstm is possible today. A cold front produces scattered tstms on Wed with damaging winds the main severe threat. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend with chances of showers. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Offshore high pressure and increasing low level SW warm air advection will make for much warmer temperatures today and Wednesday as well. Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM today to 8PM Wednesday. This is the first high heat index event of the year for NE NJ and NYC. Warmest day is today with SW flow and daytime mixing. Temperatures in the 90s for all of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and much of interior Southern CT as well as much of Nassau County NY. Mid to upper 90s for high temperatures much NE NJ and NYC Metro for temperatures and heat indices. Dewpoints are mostly in the low 60s today. Slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. This same distribution exists for high temperatures on Wednesday as well but a few degrees cooler on average. The dewpoints increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with values mainly in the low to mid 60s. So for Wednesday, temperatures a little less than the previous day but dewpoints a little higher than the previous day. Highs mostly in the lower 90s Wednesday for much of NE NJ and NYC with corresponding heat indices in the mid 90s. Again, slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Subsidence and a lack of upr lvl support should limit convective chances today, but there is a chance that an isold tstm is triggered mainly across the interior this aftn where there will be high CAPE and no CIN. Best severe chances if initiation does occur could be interior CT into the Lower Hudson Valley invof the CAPE gradient. NBM pops are generally dry, despite a Marginal Risk from SPC. Stuck with the NBM pops for now and will see what mesoscale analysis yields today. No change to the fcst thinking for Wed. The cold front looks to move in first for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT latter half of the afternoon and then crosses through the NYC Metro and coastal sections by early evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. Flooding threat minimal with the westerly flow in the atmosphere and quick steering flow. However, a quick period of heavy rain and possible minor flooding cannot be ruled out with some thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend with quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. In its place, low pressure approaches from the south and west. Model variances on how far north the low reaches. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are around 70 on Thursday. Northerly flow presents downslope warming first half of the day, allowing for coastal locations to berelatively warmer than inland. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly really limiting the daytime warmth with more maritime influence. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system slowly approaching the terminals into Wednesday. VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon well NW of the NYC metro terminals. Confidence remains too low to include in the TAFs. SSW-SW winds will increase to 10-15 kt into the early afternoon with some gusts developing up to 20 kt. Gusts around 20-25 kt are possible in the afternoon and early evening with a few coastal terminals potentially seeing gusts a few kt higher. There is a chance the gusts will end up occasional. Any gusts should end around 00z with sustained wind speeds gradually weakening below 10 kt tonight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may end up occasional this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower in showers and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. S-SW winds gusts 20-25 kt day into evening. Gusts end with winds shifting NW in the evening. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: Chance of showers and MVFR conditions. Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Increasing SW flow will produce SCA winds and seas on the ocean thru Wed. Marginal elsewhere, especially the LI back bays where winds will be close this aftn thru Wed. Conditions improve for Thu and Fri behind the cold front, then worsen on Sat as ely winds increase and seas build. There could be sct strong tstms invof the front on Wed. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...JM/DS MARINE...  113 FXUS65 KRIW 191438 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 838 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions will be dry and temperatures rebound today and Wednesday, but daytime highs remain well below normal. The arrival of another weather system Thursday cools temperatures a few degrees and provides another round of precipitation. - Widespread precipitation is expected Thursday, with upslope areas like Cody and Lander having the best chances for snow accumulation during the day. - Early indications point to a warm and dry Memorial Day holiday weekend with widespread 75 to 85 degree daytime highs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas of clouds still linger over central and southern portions of the CWA this morning, as expected. Low clouds have developed in the Upper Green River Basin, in the wake of the residual snow that fell through Monday evening. Low clouds/fog is also expected to develop near Pathfinder Reservoir in southern Natrona County as well as far eastern Sweetwater County near Wamsutter and Creston Junction. These clouds are expected to last through mid-morning. Travelers on I-80 and US-189/191 should exercise caution due to the reduced visibility. Otherwise, clouds will continue to scatter out through the rest of the morning with partly cloudy skies by 18Z. There is a 20-30% chance for fog/low clouds to develop in the Wind River Basin and areas near Casper. Cumulus clouds will begin to develop over the western mountains after 18Z, with isolated virga showers possible over northern portions of Yellowstone NP, the Cody Foothills, Hoback Junction and Lander/Fort Washakie. Temperatures will be about 10 to 20 degrees below normal today, with sub-freezing temperatures expected again tonight for most areas except northern portions of the Bighorn Basin. The warming trend continues Wednesday, but temperatures stay below normal for central and southern portions of the CWA. Conditions will be dry for most areas, with showers possible over far northern portions irt the next storm system approaching the Cowboy State from the north. Precipitation chances will be confined to northwestern portions Wednesday night, with snow levels between 7000 and 8000 ft, as the storm drops southward. The associated cold front will drop southward over the CWA through the overnight hours, extending from Buffalo to Kemmerer by sunrise Thursday morning. The front will then slowly push through Natrona and Sweetwater counties through the rest of the day. Most of the precipitation with this storm will occur along and behind of the front, being widespread across the CWA through the day Thursday. Rain could change over to snow along and north of a Meeteetse-to-Lovell line after 15Z, as the cold core from the storm pushes into the Bighorn Basin. The challenge will be if snowfall rates will be heavy enough to overcome the high May sun angle. Otherwise, any snow is likely to stay in grassy areas through the day. There could be a similar change over later in the afternoon at Lander. Both of these locations (mainly Cody and Lander) will have a good upslope component with north- northeast winds. There could be a 3 to 5 hour window for snow accumulation between 23Z and 04Z (5pm to 10pm), as the sun begins to wane in the evening. A leeside low will develop over the Black Hills around this time, generating a line of showers and thunderstorms over western portions of SD and NE. Drier air will quickly push in over western portions of the CWA as the storm moves over the aforementioned areas through the rest of the night into Friday morning. Precipitation will quickly end from west to east after 03Z as a result of the storm becoming better organized over SD/NE. However, precipitation looks to linger over Johnson and Natrona counties through the rest of the night. Rain or a rain/snow mix is likely at this time, with snow levels as low as 6000 ft. Initial snowfall amounts around 6 inches are forecasted over the Absaroka and Wind River Mountains and 6 to 10 inches over the northern half of the Bighorns. Temperatures rebound more quickly on Friday, staying at or slightly below normal as the storm quickly exits over the Plains. A pleasant holiday weekend is shaping up, with highs in the 70s and 80s by Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 420 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals Low MVFR/VFR cloud decks persist in the Green River Basin this morning. There is still a chance of LIFR/IFR fog and low clouds at KBPI, until 15Z. There may be similar IFR/MVFR at KRKS and KPNA during this time, but confidence is low given current observations and model trends. All terminals are VFR after 16Z through the remainder of the period. Enough mid- level moisture and instability is present for cumulus to form over the mountains and drift into the valleys/basins late Tuesday afternoon. A few showers could occur around KJAC, but confidence is low for any impacts. Mountain tops frequently obscured through the afternoon as a result. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals There could be a brief period of fog and IFR ceilings at KRIW and KLND after sunrise, as skies have cleared over the Wind River Basin. Other terminals to be VFR through the period. Enough mid-level moisture and instability is present for cumulus to form over the mountains and drift into the valleys/basins late Tuesday afternoon. A few showers could occur around KCOD and perhaps KLND, but confidence is low for any impacts. Mountain tops frequently obscured through the afternoon as a result. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...CNJ/LaVoie  544 FXUS61 KBTV 191446 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1046 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 1045 AM EDT Tuesday... Early morning showers have temporarily stabilized the environment with more clouds and impacting the diurnal curve. Adjusted near term data and precipitation chances over the next 12 hours based on current radar and incoming high res data. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 727 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Unusually warm temperatures continue today into Wednesday before a cold front moves through the region bringing much cooler conditions by Thursday and Friday. 2. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening with more widespread showers possible overnight into Wednesday. 3. Breezy to gusty winds are expected today through Wednesday. 4. Seasonable temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation expected for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 727 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat will continue today with 925mb temperatures favored to warm into the 20-24C range. This is down from yesterday, but the warmer start this morning will continue to promote hot conditions. Maximum temperatures are favored back into the mid and upper 80s with 90 within reach for a few select locations. Flow will be swinging southwesterly, so Burlington may get a marginal reprieve as air moves across the colder surface of Lake Champlain; upper 80s are favored here. Conversely, eastern slopes will have an increase in temperatures from this wind direction that will promote increased compressional warming off the terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens. 90-93 degrees is more probable for eastern Essex County, NY and for the Springfield, VT area. Around 90 is possible for portions of Rutland/Addison Counties as well. Temperatures are expected to drop by 10-15 degrees for Wednesday, but remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Warmest spots will be in southern Vermont where there will be potential for more heating ahead of the boundary. Highs in the 70s are forecast with low 80s for southern Vermont locations. Northwest flow will dominate behind the front bringing sharply cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday with highs likely in the mid/upper 50s, then 60s respectively. This will be around 10 degrees below seasonal averages and around a 30 degree departure from yesterday and today's high. KEY MESSAGE 2: A conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains as heat continues while dew points rise. Highs in the mid/upper 80s to 90s coupled with dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s would support a few stronger variety storms. Should any storms fire off, it's probable that outflows would be sufficient to ignite other cells, especially if they interact with lake breeze or move into convent flow around terrain. The biggest issue will be a trigger. Models are showing a subtle 500mb trough moving through late this morning and early afternoon which is what some of the CAMs are highlighting as a trigger. There should be ample cloud breaks to allow for heating which will put the focus on shower/cell initiation over higher terrain. Have increased chances of showers over the Adirondacks coincident with trough timing and as temps on the slopes rise to near 80 degrees which aligns with about noon. The biggest concern will be winds (15%) with a stout low level jet and deep layer of 40+kts extending from 2500-15000ft. There will be about a 5% chance of any storm developing hail this afternoon. The continued absence of strong low level shear means the tornadic threat is very low. Finally, can't rule heavy rain completely out with PWATs in excess of 1.5". If storms fire and a persistent boundary can set up, training cells could occurresulting in localized heavy rainfall. The threat for stronger storms will end around sunset with loss of heating and decrease further behind the prefrontal trough overnight Tuesday. More synoptically induced precipitation is expected as the front begins to moves through tonight along a prefrontal trough and Wednesday as the surface front moves through. KEY MESSAGE 3: Winds will be breezy through Wednesday given periods of low level jet passages and a moderately strong thermal/pressure gradient along and behind Wednesday's front. Gusts 20-35 mph are likely with highest gusts in the northern Champlain Valley and along the Highway 11 corridor in the vicinity of Malone/Ellenburg, NY. Gusts to 40 mph are possible should mixing be more pronounced; model soundings show robust southwest flow aloft with a deep 35-45kt layer 2500-15000+ft. Some model guidance is suggesting a narrow potential at gusts to 40 mph for portions of northern New York tonight, but this will be highly dependent on convection which is less certain. These winds will result in rough lake conditions on Lake Champlain. Lighter winds return Thursday as high pressure moves across the region. KEY MESSAGE 4: There continues to be considerable differences in both ensembles and deterministic models in how shower chances play out for the upcoming holiday weekend. Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF are roughly split equally on whether waves of precipitation will cross the area Saturday into Sunday. The deterministic ECMWF also favors a wetter solution. Meanwhile, the remaining ensemble members along with the GFS and CMC keep ridging more firmly in place, with the axis running just to our east. This would keep rain shunted to our south and west through the day Saturday and most of Sunday, then trending rainy for Memorial Day. With this much uncertainty, have stayed with the NBM solution for now. Either way, temperatures will be seasonable with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...This morning, some showers are moving into northern New York with a focus on MSS and SLK through 16Z. More nebulous are chances as the area of showers track into the Champlain Valley - have about 30% chance of showers 15-21Z. After 18Z, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible, some of which may be strong to perhaps severe. Coverage/timing is too uncertain at this point to include any mention in the TAF, but MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms. Surface winds become light and variable around 5 kt this evening. However, a LLJ moving overhead will allow for periods of LLWS at all terminals overnight. Surface winds increase out of the S/SW after 14z Tue, gradually shifting toward the W/SW with gusts of 18-25 kt expected. LLWS will become pervasive overnight as LLjet spread across northern New York and much of Vermont ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will begin at MSS after 09Z. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Winds are expected to increase this morning out of the south with sustained speeds 15 to 20kts and gusts around 25kts. These stronger winds will continue through 8 AM and will diminish to 15 knots or less until the early afternoon; winds then increase again as faster winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts in excess of 20kts are probable before flow turns more southwesterly. South winds return tonight with stronger gusts possible. A front will pass through the region Wednesday resulting in a wind shift out of the north with gusts up to 30kts. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd/Haynes DISCUSSION...Hastings/Boyd AVIATION...Boyd/Hastings MARINE...Clay  959 FXUS61 KGYX 191457 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1057 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Day 1 SPC Convective Outlook now includes all of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for today. Changes were small, to include thunder through coastal waters. This is in line with morning hires guidance. Steep inversion from last night has broken, with temperatures rapidly warming across southern New Hampshire and interior Maine. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot, well above normal temperatures move into the region today and Wednesday. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected today, with warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Another round of hot temperatures is possible Wednesday, mainly focused from the interior to the coast. 2. An approaching cold front will bring chances for thunderstorms today and chances for showers and storms Wednesday when the front crosses. Any thunderstorm that develops this afternoon will have the potential to become severe. 3. The second-half of the week will feature cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Unsettled weather is possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Not much has changed regarding the hot temperatures expected today and tomorrow. Any lingering fog over the coastal areas or interior should dissipate early this morning, giving way to a clear sky and plenty of sunshine. Rapid heating will lead to well above normal highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s across southern New Hampshire and portions of interior Maine. The Heat Advisory for Hillsborough and interior Rockingham counties looks to be in good shape with no changes anticipated. With limited moisture, heat indices will be a bit on the marginal side (approaching 95) but quite a change from what we have seen thus far in the Spring. Temperatures should remain quite warm overnight tonight as a southwest breeze continues ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows may only dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the south. Wednesday will be quite warm again but not as hot as today. Southern New Hampshire and interior/coastal Maine should still see highs in the mid 80s to around 90, but locations around and north of the mountains will be a bit cooler behind the front, mainly in the lower 70s to lower 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The severe weather setup for today has become a little bit more interesting, especially over southern New Hampshire. A mid/upper level ridge will break down slightly through the day and most of the region will see some modest height falls. A weak surface low will move across Maine, dragging a surface trough with it. This boundary may be a focus for some isolated shower/storm development in the afternoon. These storms will be very hit or miss, and most locations will remain dry with limited synoptic forcing in the area. The one exception may be southern New Hampshire where a compact shortwave will move in from Vermont and provide some better lift. A few CAMs are now suggesting that a cluster of storms may develop in the early afternoon over the higher terrain in southern Vermont before moving into southern New Hampshire mid/late afternoon. NAM Nest soundings ahead of this modeled cluster suggest an environment characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30 to 35+ knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. This environment will be favorable for a few organized multicell clusters or even a transient supercell structure/bowing segment. Thus, any storms that move across southern New Hampshire could become severe capable of damaging winds up to 60 mph and some large hail. Forecast Significant Hail Parameter (SHIP) values are generally just less then 1 so the threat of very large hail seems low, but hail up to the size of ping pong balls seems plausible if we do see any transient supercell structures or sustained updrafts. The tornado threat appears to be fairly low given weak low-level shear. For the rest of the forecast area, some strong to marginally severe storms will be possible but instability will be decreasing moving north/northeast and forcing becomes more nebulous. The shear profile will be fairly similar. Showers and storms will move out and/or diminish with the loss of heating but we could see a few showers linger across the mountains overnight. A cold front then moves across most of the forecast area early in the day on Wednesday. Thunderstorms on Wednesday will generally be limited to areas along and ahead of the front, which will likely be south of the mountains. We could see enough heating to see a stronger storm or two around the interior or extreme southeast New Hampshire before the front pushes out over the waters, but the probability for severe weather appears low at the moment. A few showers may linger behind the front. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure moves in from the west, bringing cooler and drier conditions. This high pressure will keep more active weather to the south of the region. Over the weekend, a low may move into the area and bring meaningful rain to the area. However, there is still some uncertainty in timing as some guidance brings in the unsettled weather on Sunday while others don't have precipitation moving in until Monday. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12z Wednesday...VFR through early this afternoon before scattered showers/storms develop this afternoon into early evening. These may produce MVFR to IFR visibilities and strong winds, and TEMPO TSRA has been put in some of the TAFs where confidence is high enough. Otherwise west to south west winds will gust 15 to 25 kt today before diminishing this evening tonight. Showers/storms push offshore or dissipate this evening with mostly VFR overnight, except there is potential for MVFR ceilings and a few showers at HIE. LLWS may also need to be added for tonight in the next TAF issuance. Outlook: Wednesday: Scattered showers and TS may bring localized restrictions late morning early afternoon. Otherwise mainly VFR with gusts 20-25 kt out of the west. Wednesday night: VFR with NW winds gusting up to 20 kts. Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Friday night through Saturday: Clouds may increase and lower across southern NH and Coastal Maine. Low confidence in height and extent, but could see periods of MVFR south of the mountains. && .MARINE... Onshore winds advect moisture over the coastal waters this morning which may lead to some areas of fog. Showers and storms develop inland this afternoon and may track towards the NH/ME coast by evening. SW winds continue overnight, nearing 20-25 kt, which is just shy of SCA criteria. However, seas are forecast to build to 5-6 ft over portions of the coast waters, and small craft advisory has been issued. Southwest winds turn westerly Wednesday as a cold front approaches and crosses the waters during the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 25 kts with seas approaching 5 feet. Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds Thursday into Saturday as high pressure builds over the Northeast. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for NHZ013-014. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ012>015. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Hargrove/Palmer AVIATION...Combs/Dumont/Hargrove