950 FXUS64 KHUN 191514 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms return tonight. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms then persist each day from Wednesday through much of the weekend. No severe weather is forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A hot and humid summer like day is underway as temperatures as of 10am are in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F. The local forecast area remains along the western edge of high pressure that is centered over the Carolinas. The high clouds this morning continue to scatter out, but with daytime heating the fair weather Cu field is forecast to develop by this afternoon. Later today, expect afternoon highs to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s with max heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Looking at forecast soundings, the atmosphere becomes quite unstable, however with no lifting mechanism in place and some weak subsidence aloft, no precip is forecast today. If you plan on being outside this afternoon make sure to hydrate and practice good heat safety. By tonight, the MCS along a cold front that impacted MO/AR/LA will push eastward into TN/MS. By the time it reaches NW AL a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as it runs into a more stable environment. That being said, the outflow boundary associated with the MCS will at least provide a low chance (20-40%) of showers and storms after midnight in portions of NW AL. No severe storms are forecast given the weak vertical wind shear. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front associated with the active weather to our west finally makes its way into the TN Valley. As it stalls just to our west, shortwaves are forecast to ripple northeastward along the boundary Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms. While it is difficult to determine when the precip will occur, the best chances for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening hours. The good news is that there is little to no shear, therefore no severe storms are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026After sunrise, w A more summerlike pattern will persist through the Day 4-7 period as 5h ridging builds farther into the southeast U.S. and eastern Gulf of America. Southwesterly flow will persist northwest of the ridge, maintaining a moist flow of air into the Gulf States, particularly in the lower MS Valley where 2.0+ inch PWs will reside. Although, there is a corridor of slightly lower values in the 1.5-1.8 inch range over AL into eastern and middle TN, with higher values farther east across the FL peninsula through GA and the Carolinas. Multiple weak impulses will lift northeast through this period, with medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms each day (diurnally inflated due to heating). High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows in the 60s. Dew points will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will be predominant flight category at both terminals through the period. By late this morning winds will become gusty out of the SSW between 10-20 kts, before weakening to under 10 kts after sunset. Clouds will gradually increase through the day ahead of an approaching front. Have also added a PROB30 to highlight a low chance of-TSRA at KMSL after 06z early Wednesday morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...AMP  127 FXUS65 KPUB 191518 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 918 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and Freeze highlights remain in place for portions of the plains through 8 AM. - Cooler and wetter weather expected today and tomorrow, with best chances for widespread precip coming in tonight. - Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible on Thursday, especially on our eastern plains. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Weak disturbance approaching out west ahead of the Great Basin upper trough has developed some weak showers along the eastern mountains in area of upslope flow and mid level WAA. Showers should continue through the morning before diminishing, followed by some heating and convective instability developing in a narrow ribbon on the edge of the moisture gradient across the southeast mountains this afternoon. Instability is not all that high today, and any isolated thunderstorms that can fire may be confined to the western mountains. As they push eastward and encounter the cooler airmass to the east, we should see thunder risk diminish but showers persist as they get sustained by continued weak overrunning. Have made some tweaks to pops and took down Frost/Freeze highlights at their natural expiration. -KT && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 The post frontal cold airmass is finally here to stay, and critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next several days. Temperatures have fallen into the 30s and 40s across our plains and mountain valleys. With some lingering moisture and upslope in place, fog and freezing fog will be possible across the Pikes Peak region, the Arkansas River Valley, down into the Wet Mountain Valley and our mountain adjacent plains west of I-25. Frost Advisories have been been issued for many of these places that are into their growing seasons by now, and northern El Paso County remains in a Freeze Warning through 8 AM this morning as well. Temperatures look to stay cool under mostly cloudy skies today, though some clearing will be possible later this afternoon, especially further east where upsloping will be less impactful. Daytime highs are likely to remain in the 50s across the 1-25 corridor, with 60s for the San Luis Valley and the eastern plains. Some very light rain may be possible over our mountain adjacent plains and eastern mountains this morning as upslope deepens, but better chances for wetting rains move in after sunset as shortwave energy embedded in another trough out west comes through the region. Most areas along and east of the Continental Divide, and along and west of the I-25 corridor are expected to see chances for rain tonight into Wednesday morning. Snow levels look to drop down to 8,000 or 9,000ft in some areas, which should put some light snow accumulations on the higher peaks of the Sangres, the Wets, and the central mountains through the overnight hours. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night/early this morning in most places, though the Palmer Divide may drop down into the 33 to 34F degree range once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday.. We start out our Wednesday morning cool, cloudy, and with precip chances for most areas, but dry out gradually through the morning hours, especially for areas south of Highway 50. After a morning lull in precip chances though, another approaching trough looks to bring showers and thunderstorms back for most of the high country and portions of our plains. Daytime highs in the 50s and 60s and more stable conditions on the plains should limit any chances for severe storms as the trough approaches, but clearing over thehigh country may lead to a few stronger storms. Thursday.. Thursday could be an interesting day as our next trough digs in to our northwest and brings stronger forcing for possible severe thunderstorms to our region. Models bring its axis into western CO through the afternoon, with southerly and southeasterly surface flow out ahead of if it through much of the day. This brings 40 and 50 degree dewpoints back into the plains, and juices up instability as well. Shear looks to be forecast around 35kt to 45kt for much of the eastern plains, where 50 degree dewpoints look to be possible. Models are not in great agreement about where a dryline may set up obviously with the event being this far out, but it is safe to say that Thursday will need to be watched closely for severe potential across our plains. Friday Onwards.. Models keeps us in cool northwest flow behind the front on Friday, though showers and thunderstorms look to remain possible, especially over and near the higher terrain. We warm up through the weekend as high pressure tries to build to our southwest, but enough moisture looks to stay over the region to keep at least slight chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain through the weekend. Winds look to stay on the weak side and humidity values look to stay above critical thresholds through the extended as well, so at this time fire danger is not expected. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 536 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 KALS: Mostly VFR conditions through 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds will pick up later this morning, gusting 25-30 knots through this evening. Some showers may move off of the mountains after 00Z or so, bringing the potential for -SHRA and briefly lowered cigs and vis into MVFR overnight and into Wednesday morning. KCOS: Brief light rain and drizzle will linger into late morning, with breezy southeast winds and MVFR cigs. More widespread rain showers will set in later tonight, with low-MVFR to high-IFR lasting overnight and into Wednesday morning. KPUB: Flow will remain ESE to ENE throughout the period, with low MVFR to IFR clouds. Chances for rain increase late this afternoon, becoming more widespread across the area after 00-03Z this evening. Even after rain dissipates late tonight, still expecting low clouds and some patchy mist/fog into Thursday morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO  172 FXUS63 KSGF 191520 AAA AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Springfield MO 1020 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly move through the area this morning before exiting the area this afternoon. Low chance for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm southeast of Springfield. - Flood Watch remains in effect until 1pm. Residual flooding from previous heavy rains will continue. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is possible, especially along and south of Interstate 44. Rain will slowly end from northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening. - Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 As of 10am, a cold front was located over southeast Kansas, moving into western Missouri. Behind the front, temps were in the 50s, ahead of the front, temps were in the 60s however the low level airmass was fairly stable with widespread clouds and showers with embedded thunderstorms. RAP MU CAPE plots generally showed around 1000j/kg therefore elevated thunderstorm potential will continue this morning. Plenty of CG strikes have been noted in the stratiform rain shield. Latest satellite data shows warming cloud tops therefore storm strength should continue to decrease this morning. General consensus is that any severe potential today will be very low and confined to far south central Missouri. However confidence is low that enough low level instability will be able to develop organized storms. The most likely hazard we will continue to deal with is flooding. Two day rainfall totals north of Springfield were in the 4-8 inch range, and even some areas west of Springfield saw 4 inches of rainfall. Locations southeast of Springfield are alot drier than areas further north. Therefore anticipating only localized flooding in these areas. Locations further north will continue to see a scattered showers/storms through the morning which could cause streams from decreasing. Therefore residual flooding is likely in that area and a Flood Watch and various advisories/warnings remains in effect. While the surface front will slowly move through the area today. The 850mb front looks to remain further west of the area. This will keep the potential for isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm tonight into Wednesday morning along with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 This Morning: A strong cold front continues to push through the area early this morning with strong jet dynamics supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms. This line of showers and thunderstorms is slowly dropping southeast into the area, with environment featuring MUCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the vicinity of marginal bulk shear around 30 knots. In general, the line has experienced gradual weakening trends over the last several hours, though a lingering strong to severe thunderstorm threat remains through early this morning. In particular, any line segments that able to punch down with the RIJ and bow out. For this reason, the primary hazard with any strong to severe activity will remain damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat remains very low (2-5%). O-3km shear vectors are oriented to the east- northeast at 30 to 35 knots, though low- level CAPE remains absent. Given this environment, bowing segments that become balanced and/or interact with boundaries may support a brief tornado. The tornado threat will rapidly diminish through mid-morning. SPC continues to highlight the potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) this morning into the early afternoon as the line makes it's way through the area with the front. Further attention turns towards an environment still favorable for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A corridor of 1 to 3 inches, with localized pockets of 4 to 6 inches occurred on Monday along the Highway 54 corridor. This area will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding this morning and remains in Flood Watch through early afternoon. The environment, which features PWATs around 1.5 to 1.7 inches as a strong 40 to 50 knot LLJ overrides the area. Strong low-level moisture convergence continues to amplify deep convection, that has become oriented west-southwest in areas. This orientation of the line will allow for training of thunderstorms to occur over the same areas into early this morning, with efficient rainfall rates approaching 0.5 to 1.0 inch per a hour. As mentioned earlier, a corridor across west central into central MO is well saturated from rainfall on Monday, with 1 hr FFG on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch in locations. 3 hr FFG remains favorable in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Additional localized flash flooding remains plausible outside of the watch as well, especially in urban areas such as Joplin to Springfield. Rainfall amounts through this morning will range from 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches. WPC highlights a Slight (2 of 4) to Moderate (3 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall for the flash flooding potential this morning. As we progress through the morning into the afternoon, the front and associated line of showers and thunderstorms should make it's way into far southern MO. Most of the CAMs depict a scenario with little to no redevelopment occuring as the front sinks southeast out of the area. While low confidence, the only area to keep an eye on for potential redevelopment would be along the MO/AR border in south central MO/eastern Ozarks. Winds become northerly behind the frontal passage today, with highs varying from upper 60s (northwest) to lower 80s (southeast). Overcast skies linger behind the frontal passage into tonight, with scattered showers and a few elevated non-severe thunderstorms chances. There remains some uncertainty with the true extent of coverage with the post-frtonal activity. Lows fall into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday: Much cooler on Wednesday behind the frontal passage with highs only reaching into the middle to upper 60s. Scattered rain chances (30-60%) linger through Wednesday morning before dissipating. Thursday-Friday: Return flow with the frontal attempting to lift back north into the area on Thursday and Friday will bring increasing PoPs back into the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances approach 60-90% on Thursday into Friday, though the environment remains unfavorable for severe or widespread flooding. Localized flooding will need to be closely watched given antecedent conditions from early week precipitation. Meanwhile, gradual increasing mid-level heights will support a warming trend as highs return into the 70s late week. This Weekend: Broad southwest flow persists into the weekend, with embedded waves of energy translating through the flow. Persistent rain chances (20-40%) linger through the weekend, with uncertainty in the exact timing and extent of coverage. Highs push back into the upper 70s to lower 80s, right around average for mid to late May. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A system continues to move through the area this morning, with associated showers and thunderstorms. Instances of MVFR to IFR flight conditions accompany this activity as a result of reduced visibilities and ceilings. Visibilities as low as 2 to 4 miles within thunderstorms. Widespread MVFR ceilings move into the area this morning, with heights around 1500 to 2500 feet. Further reductions in ceilings occurs with the frontal passage this afternoon, as IFR ceilings around 700 to 900 feet overspread the area. Winds become northerly behind the front. Additional scattered rain chances persist through the afternoon into the evening. IFR ceilings persist through tonight into early Wednesday morning behind the frontal passage. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058- 066>071-078>081. && $$ UPDATE...Burchfield SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Perez  295 FXUS62 KKEY 191524 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1124 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to a generally moderate risk of heat illness with periods of high risk conditions. - Rain and thunder chances will remain on a plateau through tonight, and gradually decline thereafter. - Breezy conditions continue for the Island Chain through this evening. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across all the Florida Keys coastal waters today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1124 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A busy day for KBYX radar this morning. Showers have remained active throughout the coastal waters through much of the morning while occasionally allowing for brief downpours on the island chain. A majority of the island chain has experienced some rain, though the Upper Keys have lacked due to some drier air up on that side of the island chain. GOES-19 Satelitte reveals that outside of showers locations, skies are partly cloudy for most of the area. Temperatures across the island chain are in the mid 80s currently. Along the Reef, marine observation sites are recording 15 to 20 knots. A Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline is in place for all of the Florida Keys waters for the freshened breezes through this evening. Conditions are expected to remain similar for the remainder of the day with scattered showers struggling to become thunderstorms but still dropping a few tenths of an inch of rainfall when impacting any location. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 440 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 CIMSS products shows a mean layer ridge remains in place across the western North Atlantic. However, embedded within the ridge is an upper level disturbance located to the north of the Bahamas. At the surface, a high pressure system remains in place to the north of Bermuda. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording mainly east breezes of 15 to 20 knots as a result. Moisture undulations continue to rotate around the ridge with deeper moisture currently moving through as GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows estimated PWAT values of 1.8 to 1.9 inches moving through the Keys. KBYX radar has been active for much of the overnight with scattered showers moving in an east to west fashion through the Keys with occasional showers impacting the Island Chain. The showers have been struggling to develop vertically due to the northwest flow aloft attributed to the upper level disturbance to the east. This is tilting the clouds to the south and thus choking off the updrafts causing the activity to weaken as fast as they develop. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows partly cloudy skies throughout the Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s. .FORECAST... Surface high pressure across the western North Atlantic will continue to dominate the Keys weather for the next several days. The high will be at its strongest today with gradual weakening each day thereafter. Therefore, breezy conditions are expected to continue through this evening out of the east with modest slackening afterwards. Moisture is expected to remain elevated through at least Wednesday night before slightly drier air rotates in from the southeast for late week into the holiday weekend. This will result in chances of rain becoming slight chances. Instability will also remain elevated keeping thunder in the forecast throughout the period. Temperatures will remain quite consistent through the week with highs in the upper 80s to occasionally 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 80s to perhaps near 80 degrees with any showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters through this evening. From synopsis, surface high pressure centered north of Bermuda will continue to promote moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes through tonight. Highest breezes will prevail through this evening. Breezes will then slowly slacken before the weekend with peaks expected during the evenings and lulls during the day. Rain and thunder chances will remain above normal through much of the week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Scattered showers will continue to move northwest through the Straits into the island chain through the afternoon, therefore, VCSH is included at both EYW and MTH. If direct shower impact is to occur TEMPOs will be included for reduced visibilities, lower cloud ceilings, and gusty winds. Near surface winds outside of convection will be easterly at near 10 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  638 FXUS63 KDDC 191535 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1035 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A break in the heat is expected across southwest Kansas on Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will average between 15 and 20 degrees cooler. Highs will range from the mid 60s to around 70. This cool air will linger through late week. - Widespread beneficial rainfall possible across southwest Kansas mid week. - Temperatures will gradually warm back to more seasonal readings by the start of the weekend with scattered thunderstorms being possible almost each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty north winds developed earlier this evening behind a cold front that was crossing southwest Kansas. At 10 PM, this cold front extended from northwest Oklahoma into south central Kansas as cooler air invades southwest Kansas. These gusty north winds will gradually subside overnight, becoming 15 to 20 mph by daybreak on Tuesday. Wind gusts at or above 35 mph however will be possible at times through 4am. An area of surface high pressure at the surface will cross the Central Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday as a northern branch upper wave crosses the northern plains. This will result in unseasonably cool air settling into southwest Kansas, with highs on Tuesday averaging 15 to 20 degrees cooler compared to Mondays highs. This cool air intrusion will linger across southwest Kansas through mid week as the cold front/stationary boundary remains south of the Oklahoma border. Along with this cooler air settling into southwest Kansas early in the week there will be improving moisture and lift developing north of this boundary (across southwest Kansas) Tuesday night through Thursday. As a result in addition to these cooler temperatures, there will be improving chances for accumulating rainfall mid to late week as western United States upper level trough approaches from the west. Based on the latest ensemble cluster, the best opportunity for widespread accumulating rainfall will occur from Wednesday night through Thursday as the upper trough over the Western United States moves east across the Rockies and out into the Plains. All of the ensemble clusters forecast a greater than 70% chance of accumulating precipitation (>0.1 inch) over the 24hour period ending at 7 PM Thursday. Furthermore 60-70% of these clusters indicated a 60-80% chance of 24hour rainfall totals exceeding a quarter of an inch between 7 PM Wednesday and 7 PM Thursday. Please keep in mind that it is still too early to tell where and how much rainfall will occur from this upcoming event but for what it is worth...if the current ensembles are correct the higher rainfall will be over extreme southwest Kansas. As we look at the upcoming weekend period...conditions will continue to favor an opportunity for scattered thunderstorms almost each day across some portion of southwest Kansas as a series of upper level troughs cross the Central Plains. Currently the chances for widespread accumulating rainfall from these storms are not anticipated. As for temperatures it looks like they will be climbing back to more seasonal readings for the last half of May. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1030 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Wednesday. Light northeast winds through late afternoon will turn easterly generally after 00-02Z as surface high pressure slides southeast out of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...JJohnson  938 FXUS63 KABR 191545 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1045 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/Freeze expected tonight/Wednesday morning (28 to 33 degrees) between the Missouri valley region east into the Sisseton hills region. - Another round of moisture, mainly Friday. Lower and upper range for moisture is just a few hundredths to a 1/2 inch. - Turning warmer late weekend/early next week, about 10 to 20 degrees above normal (Highs: 80s to near 90). && .UPDATE... Issued at 1018 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Radar shows a few echoes across the CWA under some of these lower level stratocumulus clouds. Sprinkles are already in the forecast so not much for changes there. Temperatures will be cool today with highs mostly in the 50s. Will make a few minor changes to sky cover grids to account for satellite trends. Otherwise, main story will be the frost/freeze conditions tonight and will cover more of that for the afternoon forecast package. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Will leave the frost advisory in place though temperatures still in the low 40s/upper 30s with cloud cover and mid/upper 30 dewpoints, and northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph making frost highly unlikely expect in the most protected/drainage prone areas. Focus for freeze conditions continues tonight with high pressure shifted a little east in comparison to previous forecasts, centered over the Sisseton hills region. This still makes us ground zero for a frost/freeze. From the Missouri river and north of highway 14 NBM temperatures are still down around 30F. NBM upper bound (90th) even has lows in the low/mid 30s so at a minimum a frost. And the NBM has been consistent, leaving little doubt that the area will experience these cold temperatures and related impacts. Additionally, daytime heating still showing up in NAM/GFS/RRFS BUFKIT profiles with shallow CAPE between 2 to 3kft up to about 6kft. Cloud cover dissipates with loss of daytime heating. Evening temperatures are only expected to top mid 50s. Did bring back the mention of sprinkles as well. Aside from frost, some evidence for fog under the high given recent moisture and cool temperatures/lack of mixing. Focus shifts to additional rain chances late Thursday through Friday with southwest flow and then a negatively tilted shortwave. After that flow becomes more zonal and then another trough sets up out west for early next week. This flow regime results in milder temperature trends with NAEFS 850mb temperatures increase to a standard deviation above climo. NBM highs Sun-Tues some 10 to 20F above climo, though starting Friday the NBM 25th/75th range in temperatures begins to expand to 7 to 10 degrees suggesting lower confidence. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR to MVFR ceilings remain over the area, with pockets of clearing. This is resulting in larger TEMPO groups for the first few hours. Expect VFR ceilings at all locations by around 19Z, holding out longest at ATY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ004>011-016>023-034>037-051. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06