111 FXUS62 KMLB 191801 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 201 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches today and may continue through much of this week. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! - Increasingly humid conditions into this weekend will gradually expand the Moderate HeatRisk across east central Florida. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms move inland with the sea breeze during the afternoons, though most will remain dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Current-Tonight...Isolated showers continue to drift onshore prior to sunrise this morning embedded within east to southeasterly flow. This activity is forecast to continue through the early morning hours, before convection becomes greater focused on the interior and western half of the peninsula later in the day (PoPs around 20% or less this morning). High pressure remains offshore from the Mid-Atlantic seaboard today, with east to southeasterly flow enhancing to around 15 mph and gusts to 20-25 mph behind the sea breeze. PWATs near 1.5" and a mid to upper level low in the vicinity of the Bahamas will lead to continued isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon over the far interior (PoPs 20-30%), but the highest chances remain west of Leesburg. Although a vast majority of the forecast area is expected to remain dry, CAMs notoriously struggle to resolve isolated onshore- moving convection, so a few showers cannot be ruled out along the coast this afternoon. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels (DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and cooler 500 mb temperatures (near -10 C) could lead to a few strong storms, with wind gusts near 50 mph and small hail. Regardless, additional showers and storms are once again forecast for the local Atlantic water overnight during the convective maximum, a few of which will likely drift onshore into coastal areas through early morning. High temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90 today, with little relief overnight as lows linger in the 70s for most areas and near 80 along the coast. If trying to beat the heat at the beaches, be aware there is a High Risk for rip currents. Entering the water is strongly discouraged. Wednesday-Tuesday...The ridge remains over the western Atlantic through the period, with its axis stretched generally towards the Carolinas into the weekend. Aloft, the mid to upper level low drifts towards the east coast of Florida through late week, before it weakens and riding develops for the long weekend. Into early next week, models suggest the surface high finally begins to drift southward, though this has very little, if any, effect on the local pattern. Overall, little change is expected to the Florida peninsula's weather pattern over the next seven days. Ridging to the northeast maintains east to southeast flow, which increases to around 15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours, occasionally drifting onshore, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Then, convection focuses on the interior or western half of the peninsula, with the greatest coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze collision in the late afternoon and evening. PoPs each day through the work week are generally 20-30%, though most will likely remain dry. Moisture increases from the Atlantic into the weekend, increasing PoPs slightly to 40-50%. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday, though increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures look to reduce that threat into the weekend. Onshore flow keeps high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. However, this will also lead to overnight lows remaining in the 70s, at times even near 80 along the immediate coast. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which creep into the upper 90s to near 100. Humid conditions and little relief overnight will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk. Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks from the heat. A High to high-end Moderate Risk for rip currents looks to continue through the period, thanks to onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east to southeast flow through the weekend. Winds remain around 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 20-25 kts along the coast behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible each day, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours, drifting onshore into coastal areas. A few stronger cells could produce wind gusts near 30 kts. Seas up to 5 ft offshore this morning diminish, with prevailing 2-4 ft seas into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Widely scattered VCSH ongoing this afternoon, mainly across the interior moving westward with the inland moving sea breeze. VCSH for all interior sites and TIX-DAB this afternoon. Will closely monitor for need of short fused TEMPOs this afternoon. But as of now, do not have any TEMPOs, and handling with VC wording. East winds 12-15 KT this afternoon with locally higher gusts will decrease to around 5 KT overnight. East to east-southeast winds will increase to around 10 KT by 14Z and then increase to 8-12 KT with gusts to around 20 KT in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Much like today, scattered showers will be moving onshore through the morning/early afternoon before transitioning to interior with the inland moving sea breeze in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure centered well offshore will help maintain east- southeasterly winds through the week and into the weekend. Sustained winds increase to 10-20 mph behind the sea breeze each afternoon, with gusts around 25 mph, especially along the coast. The greatest chance for rain and storms will be generally south of the Cape in the mornings, transitioning inland with the sea breeze into the afternoon and evenings. However, any convection will be isolated to scattered in nature, so many locations will remain dry. Briefly higher wind gusts embedded in showers or lightning storms will be possible. Ongoing drought and breezy winds will prolong fire sensitive conditions and any lightning strikes could lead to new fire starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 87 72 89 / 10 10 0 10 MCO 71 91 72 91 / 0 30 10 30 MLB 76 86 76 88 / 10 20 10 20 VRB 75 87 75 88 / 10 20 10 20 LEE 71 91 72 92 / 0 20 10 20 SFB 71 91 72 92 / 0 30 10 30 ORL 72 91 72 91 / 0 30 10 30 FPR 74 87 74 88 / 10 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wishard AVIATION...Watson  148 FXUS63 KEAX 191801 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 101 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler and drier conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures in the 60s. * Rainfall chances return Thursday, with the greatest chances (70- 80%) overnight Thursday into Friday. Strong and severe storms are not currently expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front which helped usher in a line of severe thunderstorms late Monday will continue to work its way through the region this morning. Stratiform precipitation has continued ahead of the cold front with the occasional lightning strike and rumble of thunder, though this should all come to an end later this morning with the front exiting our southern and eastern peripheries no later than 15Z. Temperatures will indeed be cooler behind the front, with today's high temperatures expected to only reach the mid 60s. Surface high pressure building off to our west will aid in keeping conditions on the calm end of the spectrum for the next 48 or so hours. The next "weather-maker", a positively-tilted upper-level trough, currently sits west of the Rockies. Low-level moisture will keep overcast conditions around during the daylight hours today with some gradual clearing beginning across northwest Missouri late this afternoon. The clearing trend is expected to continue into the overnight hours, resulting in scattered mid/high clouds for most on Wednesday. This period of lessened cloud cover will be shortlived, however, as clouds build back in later Wednesday evening during a period of increased low- level theta-e advection. The aforementioned upper-level trough will eject a subtle shortwave through the Central Plains, increasing vorticity overhead and producing lift. This shortwave will provide the forecast's first opportunity for rainfall beginning early Thursday morning. A second shortwave will traverse the region early Friday with a slightly stronger vort max, continuing rain chances generally through late morning and early afternoon in the western and eastern portions of the CWA, respectively. PoPs are currently greatest (70-80%) overnight Thursday into Friday when lift seems to be greatest, but PoPs >50% are persistent and widespread from 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday. Low-level inversions and shallow lapse rates will help prevent convection, but some very weak elevated instability could permit some rumbles of thunder amidst otherwise stratiform rain. Median rainfall accumulations from this event currently range 0.75" to 1" in our western counties, with accumulations closer to 0.5" further east. A surface low will attempt to move towards the southern MO/KS border early this weekend. However, confidence in the impact of this system remains limited due to a lack of upper-level support, so weekend precipitation chances remain low (<20%) and largely confined to our southern border of counties. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 OVC and BR/DZ persist at most of the terminals. BR/DZ should slowly dissipate through the afternoon. CIGs remain borderline MVFR to IFR until tomorrow morning when sky coverage looks to open a bit. Northerly winds persist with intermittent gusts continuing through the afternoon. Winds shift to slight northeasterly tomorrow morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Macko AVIATION...Pesel  159 FXUS63 KJKL 191801 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 201 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 201 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Isolated showers have developed over portions of eastern Kentucky early this afternoon with a few thunderstorms even noted over Central/Northern Kentucky. The expectation is for isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through the afternoon, best chances toward Central Kentucky. With greater cloud cover, temperatures have struggled to rise, so today's forecast maximum temperatures have been lowered a few degrees, mainly mid to upper 80s to near 90F across the lower elevations. UPDATE Issued at 1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Another very warm late spring day is underway across eastern Kentucky with temperatures already in the 70s to around 80F on their way to around 90F. Some isolated convection is still possible near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, only minor revisions were made to bring T/Td/Sky forecast into line with hourly observations. UPDATE Issued at 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 An update is out with minor revisions to hourly Sky and PoPs through this evening based on observed and model trends. Also updated latest hourly T/Td/Sky grids. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Upper ridging will gradually get nudged southeast through Wednesday as a cold front reaches the area and begins to stall near or over the area Wednesday afternoon. This stalling, or at least slowing down, of the cold front occurs as the upper flow becomes parallel to the cold front orientation. PoPs gradually increase from the west through Wednesday as the front approaches. Most if not all of the forecast area will stay dry today with the ridging trying to hold tough to the east and southeast while the front slowly makes progress, with highest chances at showers or a thunderstorm in the Bluegrass region. Chances for rain increase into the evening and overnight as mid- level heights begin to gradually fall, as shortwaves move up the Ohio River Valley, mostly but not completely skirting Eastern Kentucky. If a storm, or storms, were to reach the forecast area late this afternoon into this evening, there is sufficient shear and possibly instability to support an isolated severe storm in the Bluegrass region. The front reaches the CWA from the northwest late Wednesday afternoon, with a mid-level speed max of 35 to 45 kts developing during the day just north of the area possibly providing enough shear for an isolated strong to severe storm in the afternoon should sufficient instability exists, which looks likely at this time. The SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook expands the Marginal Risk into far eastern parts of the forecast area, but future outlooks may extend that further into the forecast area based on the forecast evolution and placement of this mid-level speed max. Highs will again threaten records in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, but temperatures will begin to trend lower as humidity and rain chances increase from the west and northwest for Wednesday, with current forecasts suggesting lower to mid 80s across the area, warmest in the Upper Big Sandy Basin where rain is likely to hold off the longest into the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it would be wet. The period will open Wednesday night with broad ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the Hudson Bay. This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally weak southwesterly flow aloft. With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the surface cold front that passed through during the day on Wednesday will struggle to continue it's forward momentum through into the Mid- Atlantic coastal states. Instead, it's currently poised to stall over the periphery of the ridge (TN area to the Mid-Atlantic) Wednesday night and Thursday, before lifting into Kentucky again as a warm front on Friday. This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; one for our entire area Wednesday and Wednesday night (though expect most of the rain to fall during the day Wednesday in the short term portion of the forecast), another for the Lake Cumberland area on Thursday, and a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows the chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate (maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, it should also be mentioned that the Lake Cumberland Region is in a moderate to severe drought - so any higher rain amounts that fall here will likely be beneficial. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for the north and upper 70s for the southern CWA. The previous forecast package noted that the NBM had 80s in the southern CWA, which appeared to be an outlier compared to other guidance given the frontal passage, and had to be manually lowered - so it's good to see the latest NBM has corrected this issue. After the front lifts northward again on Friday, flow will become more southerly across much of eastern KY, and temperatures will begin another warming trend accordingly. The NBM's highs on in the upper 70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but will see how this continues to trend as we move forward in time. Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet. The boundary will remain planted north of the CWA across the Ohio Valley, keeping much of Kentucky in the warm sector with good moisture advection. This will pair with a slow-moving upper level trough over the central CONUS (strengthening SW flow into the Commonwealth), in addition to potential embedded impulses moving across. The combination will result in rain chances from Saturday through Monday, peaking during the afternoon when heating/mixing/instability will be at it's max. Temperatures during this 3-day period will be fairly steady-state, if not increasing slightly each day as southerly flow continues. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while overnight low will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours, but will deteriorate gradually from the northwest through the period with the approach of a cold front. Look for an extensive cumulus field this afternoon with PROB30 groups to account for the low potential of diurnally driven shower activity. Additional probabilities are noted later tonight and on Wednesday as the cold front nears. Winds will be the south to southwest at 6 to 13 kts again with some gusts of 15 to 20 kts for this afternoon, highest at KSYM and KIOB. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will see a variable to southerly wind around 5 kts or so. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...FAGAN/JMW AVIATION...GEERTSON  273 FXUS63 KAPX 191803 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 203 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temps continue to filter into N MI this evening and overnight scattered showers end this evening. - Much cooler Wednesday, with the potential for a widespread frost/freeze Wednesday night. - Steady warming trend late week into the weekend, watching potential for rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Cold front to bring sharply colder temperatures this evening and tonight consequent of upper low moving across Ontario. Additionally, scattered showers from this afternoon will largely end by 7-8PM. Expect a cooler night tonight, with some 30s and 40s across northern lower and eastern upper MI. Winds will remain elevated through the night, and a little breezy at times. Upper low continues to sweep eastward across Ontario on Wednesday, with sfc high pressure building in across Minnesota and Wisconsin, nudging eastward. Expect cool conditions through the day on Wednesday, with high temps between 50 to 60 degrees for most. High temps a full 15 degrees below average for some. High pressure continues to move eastward, settling just to our northwest/north Wednesday night. With winds progged to decouple, most locations have a good chance for either a front or freeze event. Given this could cause decent impacts to vegetation and crops, went with a freeze watch for the area. Mixed in MAV guidance to nudge low temps colder. Next time period of relative mild concern will be the later Friday into Saturday time frame. Low pressure and warm advection lifts northward, with the potential for rain across the region. This will all depend on how subtle energy across the central portions of the country is handled which will impact low pressure location. Combining GEFS, EPS, and GEPS together yields a high chance for >0.1" of rain and a low to medium chance for 0.5". Thus, could be a wetting rain for some, although the highest potential is shaded farther downstate and especially near DTX. Stay tuned for additional details. Heights will continue to rise through the weekend and into early next week, meaning the warming trend is progged to continue. Looks pretty warm early next week if the pattern holds true. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Mostly VFR conditions at terminals to start the period, with MVFR cigs near KCIU. S/SW winds of 10 to 15kts with frequent G15 to 20kts as a FROPA approaches from the west. -SHRA chances will move through from west to east from 20z thru 03z (when the last chances exit KAPN). Winds will veer W then NE and remain gusty through 01/03z. Winds remain elevated at 10kts overnight and will continue to gradually veer. MVFR cigs will move in with the rain showers, and linger through the end of the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...ELD  235 FXUS63 KLOT 191802 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 102 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms diminish early this morning across northern IL. Thunderstorm chances then increase again this afternoon, mainly southeast of a Peru IL to Valparaiso IN line. A few strong storms are possible. - Summer-like warmth and breezy winds today will give way to cooler and dry conditions for the middle of the week. - Intermittent shower/thunderstorm chances return late in the week and into the weekend, though with a return of warmer weather by Memorial Day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Early morning surface analysis places 1005 mb low over northwest Wisconsin, with a cold front trailing through central Iowa into southeast Kansas. Strong/severe thunderstorms that had developed Monday afternoon ahead of the front across the mid- Missouri Valley and elsewhere ahead of the boundary, have since evolved into another linear MCS, which currently stretches all the way from the central upper peninsula of Michigan to northwest/western Illinois, then southwest to Oklahoma. Aloft, GOES vapor imagery indicates a deepening mid-level short wave trough propagating northeastward from the northern/central Plains toward the northern Great Lakes. Strong large-scale ascent, depicted by mid-level height falls of 60-80 meters across the upper Mississippi Valley, is aiding in maintaining a strong southwesterly low-level jet across our region, which latest RAP soundings/mesoanalysis depict at 60 kts across western IL. While low-levels have diurnally stabilized, the strong low level jet and associated warm/moist advection has maintained an elevated MUCAPE axis of 1500-2000 J/kg per RAP soundings. This, combined with low-level forcing provided by the eastward- propagating outflow boundary along the leading edge of the aforementioned MCS has allowed scattered convective cells to continue to initiate atop the outflow boundary across western and northwest Illinois. Forecast soundings do indicate a weakening and veering of the low-level jet over the next few hours however, along with a decrease in elevated instability. Combined with the stable boundary layer conditions, this should continue to result in weakening trend to the convection as the outflow continues to shift east across northern IL this morning, which is already evident in recent radar and lightning data. Stable outflow and lingering scattered morning showers, combined with a stream of high-level cloud cover off of stronger convection well to our southwest should limit local convective redevelopment for the balance of the morning. The surface cold front is progged move into the forecast area early this afternoon, pushing southeast across the area into this evening. Forecast soundings are generally capped across the area initially, though become conditionally unstable with diurnal warming later this afternoon ahead of the front mainly across the southeast half of the forecast area (and especially southeast of a Pontiac-Valparaiso line). Guidance has generally backed-off with coverage of afternoon convection across our area, though frontal forcing and favorable diurnal timing especially in our far southeast should support an increasing thunderstorm threat mid-late afternoon. Forecast 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPEs and up to 35 kts of deep-layer shear (generally parallel to the frontal zone) would support some storm organization with some wind/hail potential. Note SPC has moved earlier slight risk out of the WFO Chicago area with the new Day 1 outlook, leaving a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk in our far southeast. A few showers may linger across our southeastern tier of counties this evening until the front exits the region, with a period of dry and cooler weather then expected Wednesday through Thursday. After several recent days of highs in the 70s and 80s, daytime temperatures in the 60s are expected mid-late week with 50s closer to Lake Michigan where breezy northeasterly winds will persist around an area of high pressure building across the Great Lakes region. Nighttime temps both Wednesday and Thursday night will dip into the 40s in most areas. Rain chances then return Thursday night into Friday, as guidance depicts an area of low pressure tracking from Missouri into Illinois and Indiana in association with an upper level trough transiting the region into the weekend. Some detail and timing differences remain within the global guidance suite, though rain chances appear to be highest on Friday, then more spotty from Saturday into Monday. It does appear that warmer temperatures will return later in the weekend, but likely with cooler conditions near Lake Michigan. Ratzer && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy west-southwesterly to westerly winds to continue through this afternoon. - MVFR ceilings may be observed at times through tomorrow morning. Breezy west-southwesterly winds with peak gusts in the 25-30 kt range will continue through the early afternoon before turning more westerly as a cold front tracks across the area over the next few hours. Winds will then turn northerly overnight before becoming northeasterly after sunrise tomorrow. MVFR ceilings should become more commonplace after the cold front moves through and will likely hang around the area in some capacity through tomorrow morning, but VFR conditions are still favored to prevail through a good chunk, if not most, of this time frame. Additionally, still couldn't rule out a few isolated showers or sprinkles passing near the terminals this afternoon as the cold front passes by, but dry conditions are otherwise favored to prevail through the TAF period. Ogorek && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  320 FXUS63 KDTX 191804 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 204 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early evening. - Dry and cool Wednesday through Friday morning. - Rain returns by Friday evening and continues into Saturday. && .AVIATION... Another hot and humid day (by mid-May standards) lends potential for diurnal convection this afternoon and early evening. To the west of the terminals, initial updrafts are testing what little remains of the capping inversion layer, characterized by shallow updrafts and limited glaciation/lightning. Meanwhile, sufficient daytime insolation should lead to surface-based instability within the next couple of hours marking an expansion in convective coverage across some of the terminals. Confidence is highest from PTK south, but uncertainty in overall coverage/intensity of thunderstorms remains. FNT will be right on the edge of the pre-frontal troughing so opted for a VCTS mention as opposed to a TEMPO for thunder the rest of the PM hours. Visibilities will drop to IFR in the heaviest downpours. Non-convective gusts have stayed elevated given the ambient wind fields, but expect enhancements within water-loaded downdrafts. Nocturnal stabilization emerges overnight as gusts drop-off, and gradient winds gradually veer toward the north throughout the overnight hours. Post-frontal northerly flow draws a plume of low- level moisture through Southeast Michigan late tonight into Wednesday morning favoring MVFR ceilings. D21/DTW Convection...Window for scattered convection is focused between 20Z and 23Z this afternoon/evening, although initial storms could drift eastward a bit sooner. Storm motion will be southwest to northeast around 40 kt while the corridors of storms migrate west to east. IFR visibility reductions possible in heaviest downpours. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for thunderstorms 20-23Z today. * Medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through this evening, then high early Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 946 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 UPDATE... No significant changes to the inherited forecast. A subtle shortwave lifting northeast out of the Western Ohio Valley is expected to provide a focus for late afternoon storm development. Unidirectional moderate southwest flow exists ahead of a cold front this afternoon with MLCAPE at or above 1500 J/kg, mainly south of I- 69. A pre-frontal surface trough should allow for renewed convective development in the uncapped environment during peak heating of the day (3-7 PM). The bulk of hi-res solutions indicate multicells becoming a scattered to broken line of convection, with good agreement on the progressive nature of the activity pushing east rather quickly. Like yesterday, localized/scattered damaging wind gusts should be the dominant hazard. However, the actual cold front will have to track through during the evening hours, and additional storms will be possible with any leftover instability. At the very least, expect scattered showers before the front clears the state and low-level dry air surges in, sending surface dew points down into the 30s/40s for Wednesday. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 DISCUSSION... Higher magnitude warmth and humidity for mid May entrenched locally early this morning, as the area holds within deep layer south- southwest flow for one final day. Forecast for today offers a more muddled picture in terms of convective potential, scale and timing relative to that noted yesterday. Intermittent bouts of meaningful moisture advection will deliver another surge of higher quality theta-e early in the day, providing some potential for greater cloud cover to exist along with the possibility for some pockets of convective showers. With that, expectation for gradual boundary layer destabilization with time as intervals of greater insolation capitalize on the elevated dewpoint (mid-upper 60s), yielding upwards of 1500 j/kg of mlcape by late afternoon. There is a definitive model signal for higher instability to exist southeast of a Howell to Sandusky line, but with the best instability (2000+ j/kg of mlcape) remaining across Ohio. Convective focus most likely along some composite pre-frontal trough or remnant convective vort max out ahead of the main cold front within the 19z to 00z window, offering the greatest potential for more meaningful updrafts to emerge mainly within the aforementioned main instability gradient. Background wind field generally modest overall, but with potential again for some local enhancement should the convective response be governed by a stronger convective wave. This maintains an opportunity for organized late day convective development carrying a risk for strong winds and large hail. Afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 80s/near 90 across portions of metro Detroit and points south and mainly mid 80s elsewhere. Warm sector environment will again become diurnally gusty, with winds reaching 30 to 35 mph from the southwest at times. A few lingering showers around early tonight as the cold front settles through the region. Otherwise, turning notably drier and cooler as the post-cold frontal environment settles into region overnight into Wednesday. Deep layer stability held within prevailing low to mid level ridging affords dry and seasonably cool conditions lasting into Thursday. A standard moderation of the existing airmass then occurs Friday under a high degree of insolation and increasing upper height field, but still lacking in meaningful warm air advection. Highs the remainder of the week mainly in the 60s. Coldest readings noted Thursday morning, reaching into the mid and upper 30s in some locations. Southern stream shortwave forecast to eject from the southern plains into the great lakes this weekend. Increasing magnitude of mid level southwest flow downstream of this wave will drive a notable surge of moisture advection directly into Lower Michigan Friday night. While some higher based light showers are possible late Friday as the column gradually saturates, the main window for widespread, meaningful rainfall will arrive Friday evening and persist overnight. Model guidance is coalescing around a broad swath of mainly stratiform rain with embedded elevated convective elements sweeping from southwest to northeast across Southeast Michigan. Precipitation may carry over into early Saturday, before chances taper off into the afternoon. Otherwise, generally seasonable conditions for the weekend period. MARINE... A warm and humid airmass over the cooler waters of the Great Lakes will support the development and expansion of dense marine fog. Sustainment of fog will be likely through the morning hours as a strong inversion holds overhead, and will likely continue to some degree through the early afternoon until a cold front mixes out the layer. As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through the afternoon. Otherwise, calm to lighter winds hold overnight with some limited chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Southwest flow increases in magnitude during daylight hours tomorrow which will bring wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots through the Saginaw Bay and along the nearshore areas which have resulted in renewed Small Craft Advisories. The development of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again in the afternoon and evening, favored across southern Lake Huron and locations south. Wind gusts aoa 50 knots will be the primary hazard for severe weather development. Passage of the cold front will end the severe weather threat, veering winds from the southwest to northwest through the evening. High pressure builds behind the front, bringing lighter winds through the midweek period. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ361>363- 462>464. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....KGK UPDATE.......SF DISCUSSION...AM MARINE.......MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  309 FXUS64 KBMX 191804 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 104 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 103 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 - Warm conditions are expected again on Tuesday with highs near 90 degrees. Heat indices will remain in the upper 80s in the far north and lower 90s the rest of the area through much of the work week. - Chances for showers and storms increase Tuesday afternoon and continue each afternoon through the weekend, with the highest (40-70%) chances in northern and western portions of Central Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours each day. - High moisture levels will support periods of heavy rain, though total amounts are anticipated to be light (1 to 2 inches across the area). && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 103 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 High pressure will develop and strengthen to the east of the southern US through the work week, putting AL on the western side of the center of the high. This will cause prevailing southerly flow, which will bring plenty of moisture to the state. A boundary will approach from the northwest, stalling as it moves into the northern counties. As the boundary meanders over the same general area for the next couple of days, it will bring enough forcing for diurnal convection each day. Today, instabilities between 1000 and 2000 J/kg, with LI values in the -4 range could support afternoon thunderstorms, though moisture isn't as impressive, with PW values hovering just higher than the 75th percentile. CAMs are showing a slight increasing trend for an isolated cell activity, though if anything does form, it should be weak and short lived with the lack of moisture. A line of storms will approach the western edge of the state by this evening. CAMs are showing a general agreement that the line will weaken, with showers and maybe a rumble of thunder possible through much of the night. Activity could linger in the early morning Wednesday, but should be limited in coverage and strength. By Wednesday afternoon, greater instability, between 2000 and 3000 J/kg, with LI values up to -6, and PW values increasing to the 90th percentile could support greater storm development. Confidence is slightly lower on how strong these storms could be, with a lot depending on how great the coverage of storms is Wednesday early morning, and how much clearing will happen by mid to late morning. Wind profiles are weak, so any storm should be slow moving and pulse like. With PW values increasing, heavy rain and frequent lightning are possible, and any area that receives a slow mover may see a locally higher amount of rain totals. Thursday and Friday have a greater chance for the diurnal afternoon convection developing and remaining through the early night. A low pressure begins to develop over the mid MS River Valley, with low and mid level winds increasing. With greater low level convergence expected along that stalled and weakening boundary, and closer to the low, coverage will be greater in the northwestern half of the state, with similar instability values, wind profiles, and LI values as Wednesday. Strong storms are possible with high rain rates, frequent lightning, and gusting winds in each storm. By the weekend, the low moves to the northeast, strengthening with time, and another low pressure approaches the state from the west. Diurnal convection should continue, with low level flow from the south keeping PW values elevated and plenty of moisture advection. Throughout the week, an average of a couple of inches of rain could fall, with a gradient from northwest to southwest, higher values in the northwest closer to the greater focus of convection, and lower values in the southeast. However, because of the high PW values, slow movement of storms (at times), and the storms should become strong, areas that receive storms, or even training storms, will likely see much higher rainfall totals. Temperatures will start off the week in the 90s, cooling slightly to the upper 80s. With the flow from the south and moisture advection, even though the temperatures may feel a couple of degrees cooler, the heat indices will remain in the upper 80s in the far north, and lower 90s through the rest of the area. Many days could feel stifling and with more activities outside, heat stress could occur quickly in those not taking proper precautions. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Isolated to scattered diurnal convection is possible today, though confidence is too low on timing and coverage near any TAF site, so left mention out of each TAF for now. Winds will weaken overall for Wednesday, so left VRB in many TAFs from this evening through the end of the TAF period. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are in store for much of the day Tuesday with minRHs in the 40-50% range during the afternoon. Southwest flow will bring more moisture, with RH values slowly increasing through the end of the work week. Isolated to scattered showers are expected, with a greater concentration in the north and northwest, beginning Wednesday afternoon and each afternoon into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 87 64 86 / 0 60 40 60 Anniston 66 87 64 86 / 0 50 40 50 Birmingham 70 87 67 86 / 10 60 50 50 Tuscaloosa 70 88 67 86 / 10 50 60 40 Calera 68 89 65 88 / 0 40 50 30 Auburn 68 89 67 89 / 0 30 30 20 Montgomery 70 89 68 89 / 10 30 30 20 Troy 69 89 68 89 / 10 40 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...24  406 FXUS61 KCLE 191806 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 206 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for western counties until 7PM this evening. Some convection has begun to develop upstream of the area and is expected to move into the destabilizing area across NW OH. Current temperatures have surged into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. The primary concern remains strong winds. Will need to continue to monitor conditions further east to determine if any expansion is needed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The entire area remains highlighted in Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. Primary threat remains strong winds, although localized heavy rainfall and small hail are possible. 2) A big cool down is on the way for Wednesday and Thursday as high moves into the area. 3) An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... This afternoon, a few light showers continue to linger across far NEOH and NWPA, keeping cloud cover over that portion of the area and limiting keeping destabilization at a minimum right now. However, across western counties, cloud decks have scattered out and temperatures have quickly rose into the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, trending towards the low 70s. This has allowed for rapid destabilization with modeled soundings suggesting SB CAPE already in the 2000-2500 J/kg range and steepening low level lapse rates close to 8 C/km. The best shear with this event should remain north of the area with bulk shear values in the 15-25 knot range. Given these environmental conditions, would not be surprised to see some isolated storms develop this afternoon ahead of a main line expected to push east later this evening. DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg add confidence that the primary hazard concern with any convection with be strong to damaging winds. Cannot rule out some small hail, especially in the discrete cells ahead of the primary line. The tornado threat remains very low, although not zero, given the best shear is to the north of the area. Any quick spin ups that do occur would likely be embedded within the line of convection this evening. The final concern is locally heavy rainfall, especially in the most developed cells, that could lead to localized ponding on area roads. Modeled soundings suggest that brief training of cells could occur this evening along the boundary which would coincide in timing with an increased warm cloud layer and PWAT push. Overall concern for widespread flooding this evening remains low, but to highlight the potential WPC has included the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) ERO today. KEY MESSAGE 2... Late tonight, a strong cold front is expected to move east across the area, marking a transition back to much cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be nearly 20 degrees cooler compared to today, only climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s as 850mb of 5-7C nudge south over the area. Some lingering showers will be possible across the southern tier of counties on Wednesday before the cold front fully pushes south and high pressure dries everything out through Thursday. Unfortunately, that means that Wednesday will be rather dreary as cloud coverage across the area lingers before peaks of sunshine return on Thursday. To compliment daytime highs, overnight lows Wednesday night will fall into the low to mid 40s and into the upper 40s to low 50s Thursday night. At this point, there is no concern for a late season frost. KEY MESSAGE 3... The upcoming holiday weekend will be fairly unsettledas multiple shortwave troughs push east across the region, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area as a near stationary boundary settles somewhere near the CWA. Initially, this boundary on Friday should begin to push north of the area, marking a transition back to warmer and more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Then this boundary will ebb and flow over the CWA as the aforementioned troughs push east. As moisture increases over the area, multiple rounds of rainfall, potentially heavy at times, will result in possible flood concerns across area rivers and potential aerial flooding where rain persists. WPC has already highlighted the area in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. The thunder potential should be isolated to daytime hours as diurnal instability adds additional support for shower development, but any severe potential remains uncertain at this time. Highs throughout the weekend will be in the 70s with mild overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Better chance of convective activity hitting all terminals in this forecast compared to this time yesterday as thunderstorms set to develop west of the area around 20Z and spread eastward. Strong wind gusts in storms expected with IFR as well from reductions in visibilities in ongoing storms. Ahead of this, southwest winds will gust 20-30kts at the surface. A cold front will trail the convection tonight, switching winds around from the southwest to the northwest, and then eventually the northeast heading into Wednesday. Ceilings lower in the wake of the cold front to MVFR, with some IFR possible at MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic showers late Friday through Saturday. && .MARINE... South-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the lake overnight tonight. Winds will generally be in the 10-20kt range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this afternoon. Will go with a Small Craft Advisory from Erie County OH points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. Waves of 1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open waters today. Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt and locally up to 50kt over the lake. Winds whip around to the north- northeast late tonight into Wednesday at 10-17kt behind the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. Winds increase to 15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into Thursday and easterly into Friday as strong high pressure passes north and northeast of the lake. East-northeast winds often perform well in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore waters late this week. && .CLIMATE... A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday. High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations again. The following are the records for May 19. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...26 MARINE...Sullivan  392 FXUS62 KCAE 191806 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 206 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A cold air damming setup may bring cooler temperatures than previously forecast to northern portions of the forecast area on Friday and possibly Saturday. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAF. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. - 2. Rain chances increase late week onward. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. The only significant change to the temperatures this week is that it is looking increasingly likely that high pressure in the Northeast will push a CAD/wedge boundary down into the Mid- Atlantic States and possibly into the northern forecast area for Friday. That could bring temperatures down cooler than previously expected, at least for the northern FA. If the wedge boundary does linger around for longer than models show (as typical) then we could see those cooler temps stick around for Saturday. So the current temperature forecast for the northern FA this Saturday is uncertain. Other than that expect, above normal temperatures but lower than any Heat WWA thresholds. Key Message 2: Rain chances increase late week onward. A slight shift eastward in ridging is expected late this week. This should lead to increased moisture over the Southeast from Thursday through Memorial Day as stronger southerly flow develops. There remains a large spread in atmospheric moisture between the Euro and other global ensembles. EC mean PWAT values are projected to be in the 97.5 to 99th percentile for much of the long holiday weekend, while the NAEFS keep the deepest moisture further north and west with stronger ridging. IVT remains near climatological normal through the period in both cases. The most agreement for deeper moisture between all ensembles seems to be late Friday and Saturday as a wedge boundary drops into the Mid-Atlantic States and possibly into the northern forecast area. This looks to be the highest chance of rain in the extended with the main focus to the north closer to the front. However with limited moisture transport and at least weak ridging QPF amounts should be light, generally around or less than 0.25 inches from Fri to Sat. On average, heights increase through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week indicating some potential for convective suppression despite PWAT values remaining slightly above normal. Blended model guidance has been consistently aggressive despite shallower moisture and a set up more indicative of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The wind field remains weak from late week to early next week so the potential for anything more than an isolated downburst is low. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions likely continue into this evening before another round of stratus and/or fog will be possible early Wednesday morning. Mostly clear skies are seen across the area this afternoon with high pressure remaining in place. FEW cumulus have been seen as well as some passing cirrus and these should continue into this evening. 6-9 kt winds are expected to remain out of the south- southeast to south through the early evening before becoming light and variable tonight. Generous low level moisture tonight is expected to yield at least patchy fog and stratus, but confidence in the overall coverage and impacts is low. The latest HREF and SREF solutions yield probabilities for ceilings less than 500ft between 50-70% across the Coastal Plain and up toward OGB. These probabilities decrease toward the I-20 corridor, yielding a bit less confidence for the other terminals. With favorable conditions in place looking at BUFKIT soundings,think MVFR to IFR vsby and/or cig restrictions will be possible toward AGS/DNL/AIK as well. As newer guidance comes in, will continue to evaluate if probabilities increase toward CAE/CUB. Any restrictions are expected to clear after 13-15z, giving way to mostly clear skies and light winds out of the south. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase Thursday and into this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJR AVIATION...DH  402 FXUS64 KSJT 191806 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon, with some being severe. Expect these storms to continue developing and expanding in coverage through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Most CAMs eventually expand this convection into a somewhat organized MCS, and move it south into south Texas later tonight. The main concerns will continue to be large hail and damaging winds. In addition, precipitable water values are between 1 and 1.5 inches, and with the generally slow movement of these storms, flash flooding will also be a concern. For Wednesday, CAMs disagree with each other on the coverage and intensity of possible convection, but with a boundary in the area, the moisture remaining in place, and continued southwest flow with embedded shortwave energy, we will likely have another at least medium (20%-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon as afternoon heating affects the area. We will continue to see at least a Slight Risk for severe storms, mainly for our southern counties Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to 1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding, especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor. Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern 2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently VFR at all sites as a cold front moves through from north to south. TSRA are expected to develop off of this cold front later this afternoon and evening, and affect KSJT, KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT during the evening hours. Have kept VCTS and TEMPO groups going from late this afternoon into the evening hours at these sites to address these storms. These TSRA should dissipate by 06Z, after which the cold front is expected to stall somewhere in our southern counties, giving east/northeast to northeast winds for our southern sites, with MVFR CIGs filling in behind the front after 06Z, and remaining through most of the morning Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 78 64 78 / 40 30 80 70 San Angelo 62 79 62 80 / 60 40 70 60 Junction 64 81 63 80 / 70 30 80 60 Brownwood 63 79 63 78 / 60 30 70 70 Sweetwater 60 77 62 79 / 30 30 80 60 Ozona 63 80 62 81 / 60 40 70 30 Brady 63 78 64 77 / 70 30 70 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20  398 FXUS65 KLKN 191806 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1106 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend Wednesday through Sunday * High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Sunday afternoon about ten degrees above normal for this time of year && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A trough of low pressure will remain in the vicinity of Eastern Nevada this afternoon through Wednesday. An atmospheric disturbance will dive southward along the trough of low pressure Wednesday night and Thursday. Precipitation associated with this atmospheric disturbance should remain northeast of Elko County. Zonal flow aloft will prevail Thursday night and Friday. A ridge of high pressure will build northwestward across the Silver State this weekend into early next week. A warming trend is expected Wednesday through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a warming trend Wednesday through Sunday. Moderate forecast confidence in high temperatures Sunday afternoon about ten degrees above normal for this time of year. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. North wind gusts near 20 knots anticipated at KTPH and KELY this afternoon into this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... A warming trend is expected Wednesday through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric impulse should remain northeast of Elko County Wednesday night and Thursday. Minimal thunderstorm chances will persist. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 87  513 FXUS63 KILX 191809 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 109 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms may develop ahead of an advancing cold front this afternoon into early evening, with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms near and south of Interstate 70. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main hazards. - Drier and cooler weather returns briefly for midweek. The pattern turns unsettled once again late this week into the weekend with several opportunities for showers and scattered storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Midday surface analysis shows a ~1004 mb low north of the Great Lakes Region in southeast Ontario with a trailing cold front stretched from northern Michigan through the middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a few remnant outflow boundaries from overnight convection are noted with the most predominant one stretched from roughly Robinson to Lawrenceville as of 1 pm. This boundary is moving steadily to the east and will likely be the main focus for scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon into evening. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s out ahead of the front/outflow boundary have allowed SBCAPE to become moderately strong. More favorable deep layer shear will be displaced closer to the cold front, though high PWATs and steep low-level lapse rates may be enough to support a few damaging wind gusts. The 12Z CAMs have shown a shift eastward with storm activity, with the focus being southeast of a Terre Haute to Flora line through early evening. The 19.12Z HREF 24 hour LPMM shows localized pockets of 1- 2"+ of rain occuring with storms, which looks to be south and east of the hardest hit rain areas from yesterday. The cold front will work through the area this evening, reaching the Ohio Valley around midnight. Much of the precipitation should come to an end as the front moves through later this evening. However, a shortwave trough lifting from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley will nudge the front back northward overnight and spread light shower and isolated thunder chances back into southeast parts of the state through Wednesday morning. High pressure ridging will increase large-scale subsidence and ultimately push the front back south of here, putting an end to the precipitation by Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will shield us briefly from precipitation, with cooler and drier conditions expected through much of Thursday. A western trough will work into the central US and spawn several shortwaves into the Midwest states late this week through the weekend, bringing the return of scattered precipitation chances. Temperatures and moisture will steadily increase through the weekend and may support the development of thunderstorms at times. However, overall weak forcing should largely mitigate any chances for severe weather through early next week. Machine learning probabilities support this by keeping any chances for severe weather south of here. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 West-southwest winds will shift to the north-northwest as a cold front works through the area. A short period of MVFR ceilings will fill behind the front with about a 60-80% chance of occurrence at all airfields except KCMI. Afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances will remain south of all airfields with perhaps just a low chance (<20%) for isolated showers through this evening. Winds continue to veer to the north by Wednesday morning with clouds slowly lift from west to east through the day. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...NMA  893 FXUS64 KEPZ 191812 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1212 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - Dry, southwest winds continue each afternoon through the work week. Near normal temperatures for mid May. - Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, focused mostly over the high terrain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Large-scale upper trough over the Rocky Mountains, with yesterday's stronger jet streak flow exiting. This will lead to lighter winds than what we saw the past few days. At the surface, weak moisture boundary exists just to our east, riding up against the Guadalupe/Sacramento range. Dry, southwest BL flow will keep this moisture off to our east today, leading to another day of dry conditions and low-end breezy southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Should see some mid-afternoon gusts to 35 across Southwest New Mexico. Temperatures will be right near normal for mid May with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Southwest winds will die down overnight, allowing the dryline boundary to our east to "slosh" westward toward the US-54 corridor. Wouldn't be surprised to see surface dewpoints in the 50s across Hudspeth and eastern Otero County. Models keep this boundary just east of El Paso, and will quickly push it back east by Wednesday afternoon. Little to no noticeable impacts outside of a humid morning for far west Texas. Should see increasing high clouds moving in early Wednesday morning, leading to partly cloudy skies tomorrow. Very similar weather pattern on Wednesday. Dry, southwest flow over the region 10 to 20 mph. Near normal temperatures. Cutoff low apart from the prevailing jet flow well to our north will develop Thursday/Friday, keeping low-end breezy west winds in place and slowly bring moisture northward toward the forecast area. Rain chances will be limited to the high terrain initially, then possibly a few lowland showers Saturday/Sunday. Overall, rain chances looks pretty slim given the meager moisture profiles. But at least they're not zero. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Surface winds 210-240 at 10-15 knots this afternoon. Gusts to 30 knots across SW NM. No visibility restrictions expected. Skies SKC, becoming SCT-BKN250 after 00Z. Light W wind overnight AOB 08 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Near Critical fire weather conditions for Southwest New Mexico again on Wednesday with continued southwest winds 10 to 20 mph and Min RH 8 to 12%. Winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag criteria. Skies will be partly cloudy area wide with passing high clouds. Typical mid May temperatures. Similar weather on Thursday, though we may see some afternoon low level cumulus growth over the high terrain. Minimal changes to temperatures later in the week, along with light southwest flow remaining in place across southern New Mexico. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, primarily over Lincoln National Forest. This could lead to erratic afternoon wind gusts Saturday/Sunday there. Current fuel status shows ERCs rising past the 90th percentile this week, due in part to sustained dry, breezy weather. Forest conditions are increasingly susceptible to fire starts. There is some concern in new lightning starts over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 63 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 86 55 83 / 0 10 10 10 Las Cruces 54 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 87 57 86/ 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 65 43 63 / 0 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 79 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 88 55 87 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 61 93 61 90 / 0 10 10 10 Loma Linda 58 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 60 91 60 89 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 57 87 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 76 47 75 / 0 10 10 10 Mescalero 47 76 46 74 / 0 10 0 10 Timberon 45 73 44 72 / 0 10 10 0 Winston 47 78 45 77 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 55 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 48 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 55 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt  886 FXUS65 KPIH 191812 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1212 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread frost/freeze conditions persist through Wednesday - Temperatures continue to warm toward ABOVE AVERAGE throughout the week - Best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be later Wednesday and Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A few early morning showers or sprinkles remain across the Magic Valley and Albion Mountains. Those should be gone by sunrise. Another round of isolated showers/sprinkles develops this afternoon and evening across most of the central mountains and along the Montana border. It also appears a few showers are possible across higher elevations south of the Snake Plain. The chance of thunderstorms is almost non-existent, but we also cannot completely rule it out across the central mountains. This should shift east diminish before midnight. We will see another break until Wednesday afternoon, when the next low begins to drop closer to eastern Idaho and we see an initial round of showers and storms develop. This storm slowly swings through on Thursday. Precipitation amounts don't appear impressive, although there are some trends that we could see some pockets of heavier precipitation involving any thunderstorms or bands developing. Snow is possible across the higher peaks and ridgelines on Thursday. Temperatures remain a bit BELOW AVERAGE today before warming to NEAR AVERAGE tomorrow and Thursday. Overnight lows will remain cold especially with not much cloud cover and lighter winds. Our FREEZE WARNING and FROST ADVISORY remain in place for this morning, and we will need another set of headlines for Wednesday morning. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep overnight lows more mild Thursday morning. Another thing of note for Thursday, we may need a LAKE WIND ADVISORY as northerly winds kick in and may be enough for choppy conditions on American Falls Reservoir. The rest of the week and weekend look fairly dry, although we do see a couple of very weak lows sweeping across the state which could kick off a few showers or storms here and there. Temperatures jump quite a bit, with 70s and 80s returning Saturday-Monday. It does look a bit more breezy during that stretch as well. We should see another low drop south across the state by Tuesday, with cooler temperatures and an uptick in showers and storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds remain light currently but should shift to the SW/W to everywhere outside of KSUN to around 10 knots through early evening. Winds lessen overnight becoming more southerly with a return to the SW/W expected Wednesday afternoon. Not expecting any impactful precip for eastern Idaho terminals. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Keyes AVIATION...McKaughan  033 FXAK67 PAJK 191815 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1015 AM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 18z issuance. && .AVIATION... On shore flow is bringing generally VFR conditions across the area today. The main exception today has been Yakutat, which has experienced periods of MVFR due to lower clouds. Late tonight into Wednesday morning, a front will bring rain chances and strong winds to the Panhandle. LLWS is expected begin around 08Z with 30 kts and increasing to 40kts toward the end of the TAF period for Yakutat. This front will also increase precipitation chances and wind speeds from west to east across the Panhandle. Tonight, clearing is expected to lead to fog development for areas south of Fredrick Sound. The fog will bring us down to IFR conditions, and will likely stay through the rainfall arriving with the front around the end of the TAF period. Although, brief improvement does look possible before the rain arriving with the front. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 526 AM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Brief lull Tuesday with weak ridging over the panhandle and lingering showers, primarily for the northern panhandle. - Wednesday a gale force system brings widespread rain to the region. SHORT TERM...A weak mid level trough will push into the ridge over the panhandle Tuesday morning. Satellite observations reveal little to no breaks in cloud cover over the panhandle. This lack of clearing limited cooling overnight and subsequent fog development, with most communities staying just above 40 degrees as of 5am. The upper level ridge over the panhandle is still expected to sharpen Tuesday, giving a better chance for clearing through the day for the southern panhandle, particularly communities along Clarence Strait. Isolated showers will still remain possible for the northern mountains, with breaks over the inner channels. By late tonight, a developing gale force low will push a front towards the panhandle. This front will bring deteriorating conditions to the gulf waters and moderate to locally heavy rainfall to the panhandle Wednesday. The northeast and outer gulf coast are currently slated to see the highest storm totals of around 2 inches in 24 hours, with generally 1 to 1.5 inches expected for other communities in the panhandle from Cape Decision northward to Icy Strait. The southern panhandle south of Cape Decision should see an inch or less over the same timeframe. The associated surface front is currently expected to push into the panhandle late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a westerly wind shift. LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Monday / Thursday will likely be showers or fading shower activity in a post weather front (Wednesday's) situation. The associated low feature near Prince William Sound weakens and will be getting absorbed during Thursday/Thursday night into the front from a low over Bristol Bay. The new front sweeps the western gulf Thursday and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night. Yakutat should Good rain rates Thursday night. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend. For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / The models here are still trying to settle into a pattern. Indications are that a system will spin into the Gulf of Alaska, mainly for Sunday, however its intensity and track are uncertain at this point. Ensemble means and a variety of operational models are trending toward a 995 to 1000 mb low heading in the general direction of Dixon Entranceby Sunday night, but there are indications the low could be as strong as 985 mb, and some outliers are pointing toward a much further south track and weaker low. Overall the weekend may be cool and damp or could be wet and windy, especially over the southern panhandle on Sunday depending on how this system evolves. AVIATION.../through Tuesday night/...Mostly VFR flight conditions are expected through the period. CIGs 4-6kft could occasionally dip down to MVFR with weak onshore flow bringing a few light showers, mainly across the northern panhandle. For PAYA, showers will become more prevalent through the period, with MVFR VIS/CIGs becoming likely by this afternoon. Winds will generally be on the lighter side less than 10kts through the period. Stronger winds around 10G20kts for PAHN and around 20G30kts for PAGY as the gradient remains over the northern panhandle. Decreasing winds and increasing near surface moisture could lead to patchy fog development tonight, mainly across the southern panhandle. However, confidence not high enough to bring significant VIS/CIGs reductions into the 12Z taf issuance. LLWS will increase for PAYA late tonight as the next front approaches and winds 2kft aloft become 30-40kt. MARINE... Winds continue to diminish in the wake of a front which moved through on Sunday, although respectable southerly flow will persist in Northern Lynn Canal through the foreseeable future. A system moving across the Gulf on Tuesday arrives in SE AK on Wednesday, bringing gale force winds to the N and NE Gulf Coast, and small craft conditions to the inner channels. Outside coastal waters: Winds have diminished substantially in the wake of the last system, and seas have trended down overnight down to 6 to 7 ft for most areas based upon buoy observations. Winds will trend upwards again on Tuesday across the Gulf, and by Tuesday night for the outer coast, as another system approaches SE AK. Expect the strongest winds to be largely focused around the northern gulf and gulf coast, though gale force winds could extend as far south as Cape Edgecumbe. Waveheights should ramp back up as this system moves in, reaching 12-15 ft on Wednesday. Winds and waveheights then diminish late Wednesday into Thursday as the system departs. Inside Channels: Similar to Sunday night, winds across the inner channels diminished overnight Monday into Tuesday. The lone exception once again was Lynn Canal, where elevated southerly flow of ~20 kt persist. Winds will ramp back up to 10-15 kt on Tuesday across the board, as southerly flow is sustained by a weak wave moving onshore. Wednesday will see widespread sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30 kt as a strong warm front moves onshore, alongside elevated seas, with ocean entrances reaching 10+ feet, and areas where swell reaches seeing additional inclement conditions. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032-033-053-641>644-651-661>663. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...Bezenek/EAL AVIATION...DS/Musall MARINE...STJ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  966 FXUS62 KCHS 191814 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 214 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. Aloft, strong ridging will remain in place across the western Atlantic and the Southeast U.S. At the surface, a cold front will push toward the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday before stalling Thursday, then gradually sagging south into the Carolinas Friday as a wedge pattern develops. The front is then expected to lift north as a warm front this weekend. As this front approaches and lingers, moisture will gradually rise along with increasing rain chances beginning Thursday and continuing into the weekend. However, the exact position of the front and how far south it progresses will be the key factor in determining rainfall coverage and amounts across the area. Current trends continue to favor a strong Atlantic ridge, which should keep the front displaced to the west and north of the forecast area. As a result, a drier solution is becoming more likely. Ensemble guidance now indicates probabilities for rainfall amounts exceeding one inch through Saturday have decreased to below 25%, with the highest chances generally confined to areas farther inland near the stalled boundary. While confidence is increasing in a lower-impact rainfall scenario, some uncertainty still exists given potential shifts in the front over the coming days. Regarding severe weather, the better moisture and instability are expected to remain to the north and west. Combined with weak large-scale forcing and shear, the severe weather threat remains low through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 19/18z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR for the period. Gusty winds will occur with the passage of the sea breeze this afternoon. Shallow ground fog will be possible again at all terminals early Wednesday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist with the region positioned along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. East/southeast winds will prevail with speeds less than 15 kt, although some local enhancement along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor will likely occur with the sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns are expected. High pressure to the east will drive onshore east-southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 feet through the period. Rip Currents: Influences from the new moon cycle combined with persistent onshore flow will produce an elevated risk of rip currents. A moderate risk for rip currents is in place for all beaches today. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ BRS  000 FXUS63 KIWX 191815 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 215 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible today between 3-11 PM EDT. - Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main threats. Low but non-zero risk for hail and an isolated tornado. - Warm and humid again today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Cooler with seasonable temperatures and dry midweek. Highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. - Next chance for rain and a few storms arrive Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite and radar imagery currently shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms entering Illinois. This activity is expected to weaken as it moves east, but a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out around daybreak (15-20% chances) in our forecast area. Ahead of an approaching cold front, strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Our area will be well into the warm sector today; Dewpoints will increase to around 70 degrees in response to a strong southwest LLJ ramping up throughout the day. Moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the mid to upper 80s) to support SBCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. Destabilization should occur this afternoon, with chances for strong to severe storms highest between 3-11 PM EDT today. The greatest risk area will be along and south of US 24, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place. SPC actually pulled the Slight Risk from our northwest half of the forecast area, which I agree with as the US 24 corridor will have ample time to heat up and destabilize this afternoon before the cold front arrives. Shear is still expected to be weak given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, but it will be better than the past few days at 20 to 30 kts. With weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or line segments. Given DCAPE of around 1000 J/kg this afternoon and evening and steep low level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, damaging winds will be the main threat today. In addition, forecast soundings do show some veering between 0-1km, low level SRH up to 200 m2/s2, and LCLs below 1000m, so an isolated tornado is possible today. This potential is greatest in NW Ohio, which will have the longest time to heat up and destabilize today as the cold front takes its time moving in from west to east. With PWATs around 1.25-1.5", even if storm clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr. It will be noticeably drier with much more seasonable conditions midweek behind the cold front. High pressure builds in on Wednesday and Thursday across the Great Lakes region. Highs will be in the 60s and it will feel much cooler than the previous stretch of warm and humid days. Next chance for rain and a few storms arrive Friday as a low pressure system lifts into the Ohio River Valley. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 70s. Summer-like temperatures in the 80s return by late in the weekend into early next week with additional daily periodic chances for rain/storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Afternoon destabilization ahead of a cold front is expected to allow storms to develop rapidly. The satellite picture indicated a line of convection was developing near the southeast shore of Lake Michigan. There was a very tight CAPE gradient over Indiana with values between 2500 to 3000 J/Kg to the east (and values much lower to the west). All indications are storms will develop rapidly near and and northwest of SBN, so have included SBN in thunderstorms at the start of the TAF period. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front with the activity moving southeast of SBN. As for FWA, convection should fill in with the front, so went for a higher confidence (22-02Z) with chances for storms after 02Z. Winds should shift to the northwest at both sites with lingering ceilings VFR or close to 030. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Skipper  134 FXUS63 KARX 191817 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 117 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Colder than normal temperatures expected for the next 3 nights with temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s. There might be patchy areas of frost in central and north-central Wisconsin nightly. - Periodic showers and storms from Friday night through Sunday. - Warmer than normal temperatures for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 This Afternoon and Evening A shortwave trough will move east through the area this afternoon and evening. The low level moisture gradually wanes during this time in the wake of a cold front that moved through the area this morning. There is just enough lift and instability to favor some sprinkles or virga for late this afternoon and early evening. Tonight The subsidence in the wake of the shortwave trough will cause skies to gradually clear overnight. With northwest winds remaining in the 5 to 10 mph range, there should be enough mixing in boundary layer to keep temperatures from bottoming out. As a result, expecting to see low temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s. These temperatures are close to the 25th percentile NBM. Since the temperatures in the mid-30s were not widespread, opted not issuing a Frost Advisory for tonight. Wednesday Night Another shortwave trough will approach the area from the Central Plains. As it approaches, mid- and high clouds will move into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Like tonight, the east winds will be in the 5 to 10 mph range. As a result, low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to mid-40s. While temperatures will be cooler than normal, temperatures will be just warm enough that frost does not look to be a concern. Friday into the Weekend Two northern shortwave troughs will move northeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The first shortwave trough will move through on Friday night and Saturday. The second shortwave trough will move through the area from Saturday night. Each of these systems will bring showers and storms to the region. With instabilities and shear being weak, not expecting to see organized severe weather. Early Next Week There is general consensus that a strong upper level ridge will likely build across the Upper Mississippi River Valley, Great Lakes, Northern/Central Plains, and Canadian Prairie Provinces. This should result in warmer than normal temperatures for our area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An OVC to BKN cloud deck gradually thins and lifts through this evening, with VFR conditions after 03-05Z through the day on Wednesday. Northwest winds of 10-15G20-25kts gradually diminish this evening and veer to the north around 5 kts for Wednesday morning. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Skow  102 FXUS63 KDDC 191816 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 116 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably cool temperatures continue through Wednesday. - Rain chances (70-90%) return Wednesday night/Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a broad trough of low pressure slowly transitioning east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is expanding eastward across the Northern High Plains into the Dakotas. Unseasonably cool/dry conditions will persist early in the period as surface high pressure shifts east across the Upper Midwest tonight, and into the Great Lakes Region Wednesday. Rain chances (70-90%) return Wednesday night as the SREF indicates a series of H5 vort maxima associated with an upper level shortwave trough ejecting out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a prevailing east-southeast upslope flow will pull moisture into southwest/south central Kansas pushing surface dewpoints back up into the 50s(F), bringing about minimal instability. Combined with a modest field of +50kt southwesterlies aloft and sufficient lift within easterly upsloping, rain development is expected across portions of western Kansas Wednesday evening and continuing into Thursday. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with some instability present. As suggest by the HREF, the best chance for appreciable rainfall will be across west central Kansas into portions of southwest Kansas where there is a 70-90% probability of 24-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by early Thursday morning. Additional periods of light/moderate rain are possible through the day Thursday with a broader scale upper level trough holding in place across the Intermountain West. Unseasonably cool temperatures are likely tonight as surface high pressure moving through the Upper Midwest reinforces the cooler air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas. Look for lows generally in the 40s(F) with the HREF painting a 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 45F across much of southwest Kansas to only a 10-30% probability of slipping below 45F in south central Kansas. The trend continues Wednesday with easterly upsloping doing little to erode the air mass in place, holding H85 temperatures to around 10-12C across the area. Widespread afternoon highs in the 60s(F) can be expected with the HREF indicating a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F with highs nearing 70F in south central Kansas. Similar temperatures are likely Thursday, especially with lingering precip and prevailing mostly cloudy to overcast skies. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1030 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Wednesday. Light northeast winds through late afternoon will turn easterly generally after 00-02Z as surface high pressure slides southeast out of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson  109 FXUS63 KGRR 191816 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 216 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief Window For Showers and Storms this Afternoon - Dry and Cooler Wednesday into Thursday, Frost Possible - Showers and Storms Return Friday into Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Brief Window For Showers and Storms this Afternoon Thunderstorms have developed east of a Kalamazoo to Lansing line. It is in this area where surface based CAPE is highest (1500 to 2000 J/kg) with shear values around 35 knots. This is also in the area of better moisture convergence. Downdraft CAPE values are also around 1000 J/kg. With these factors strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through 5pm with damaging winds as the primary risk and small hail as the secondary. As we head into the evening our instability and shear move east with dry conditions moving in behind the cold front. - Dry and Cooler Wednesday into Thursday, Frost Possible High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid 50s to 60s. Within this cooler air mass frost is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning mainly for inland and northern portions of the forecast area. There is a 20 percent chance that areas along and north of US-10 for temperatures at or below freezing. If winds stay in the 5 to 15 mph range overnight, frost would not be a concern. - Showers and Storms Return Friday into Saturday Low level moisture returns ahead of a shortwave trough expected to move through Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This will bring another round of showers and storms to the area with drier conditions trending for the rest of the weekend into next week. There is decent agreement as seen in the cluster analysis with most members keeping the area dry with temperatures warming up again into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Shower and thunderstorm cells are developing in the vicinity of JXN and pose a risk of microbursts with locally gusty winds around 40 knots over the next few hours before moving east toward Ann Arbor and Detroit. Showers with a lesser chance of a thunderstorm exist around AZO, BTL, and LAN for the next couple hours. Otherwise, the weather of note for this forecast period includes gusty southwest winds becoming northwest this evening, and also areas of MVFR ceilings through Wed morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Winds and waves will gradually come down this evening with some isolated Small Craft Advisory gusts through the overnight. If winds trend lower the Small Craft Advisory could end earlier. A brief period of northerly Small Craft Advisory winds and 4 foot waves is possible Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, easterly winds will keep wave heights down through the remainder of the week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...CAS MARINE...RAH  079 FXUS64 KMAF 191816 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 116 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through today, mainly for Big Bend and along the Rio Grande where highs are expected to reach into the low to mid 100s. - Strong to severe storms will be possible today for areas generally east and south of Midland/Odessa. Main threats will include large hail, damaging winds, and lightning. - Strong to severe storms are expected once again on Wednesday where large hail, damaging winds will be threats as well as localized flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is currently making its way southward across the Texas Panhandle and will make to the region within the next few to several hours. There remains some uncertainty with just how far south this front will make it into the area. Should it stall out over the northern Permian Basin, there will be a better chance at showers and storms developing east of the dryline that has setup just to the east of the city of Pecos. Should the front make it further south before stalling, storms may be confined to the Lower Trans Pecos or portions of Big Bend. No matter where storms develop, they will be capable of being strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards in addition to brief heavy rainfall and lightning. Forecast highs will also be uncertain as they will depend on where the front ends up. Areas south of the front will once again reach into the 90s. Behind the front, much cooler air will move in where highs may not reach 80F. By tonight, the front washes out and the dryline establishes itself once again over the western half of the CWA. Low level moisture is pulled westward with the dryline and an upper level disturbance makes its way in from the west. In addition to the upper level support, forecast PWATs move to between 1-1.3" east of the dryline. Climatologically, this would rank near or above the 90th percentile for May 20th. This spring setup is favorable for strong to severe storms as well as heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding. Rain amounts will be tough to pin down as it will be dependent on how convection develops over the course of the day on Wednesday. A cooler airmass and rain keep it cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s for Wednesday. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Heading into Wednesday evening, daytime convection begins to decay and move to the east out of the region. A lull in activity will be seen through Thursday morning. With the upper level disturbance moving off to the east, rain chances take a hit and will be low (10- 40%) over the course of the day. However, convection from Wednesday will have leftover boundaries and the dryline to aide in some activity developing and becoming strong to severe. Medium to long range guidance keeps this pattern in the area through this coming weekend with each day having a chance for showers and storms to develop. Temperatures see a slight warm up with most locations reaching into the mid to upper 80s, though this would be a few degrees below normal for late May. Overnight lows during this time would be near normal in the upper 50s to low 60s for most. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front will extend from far southeast New Mexico and through the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin this afternoon. Scattered TSRA are expected to develop over the eastern and southern Permian Basin and portions of the Trans Pecos along this boundary this afternoon into this evening. We maintained a PROB30 mention of TSRA at KFST late this afternoon. Northerly to northeasterly winds of 10-20 knots with occasional higher gusts will gradually turn easterly late this afternoon into this evening. VFR generally remains prevalent through this afternoon and evening. There is potential for MVFR ceilings to develop late tonight into Wednesday morning, especially over the Permian Basin near KMAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 85 59 77 60 / 40 10 40 60 Carlsbad 90 61 83 59 / 0 10 30 30 Dryden 95 66 84 64 / 30 30 40 80 Fort Stockton 94 63 85 61 / 10 10 60 60 Guadalupe Pass 84 60 79 58 / 0 10 20 20 Hobbs 85 55 75 55 / 0 10 40 40 Marfa 91 53 86 51 / 0 0 20 40 Midland Intl Airport 88 60 77 60 / 10 10 50 60 Odessa 89 61 78 61 / 10 10 50 60 Wink 91 61 82 60 / 0 10 40 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...21  101 FXUS66 KOTX 191816 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1116 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - Potential cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue Tuesday. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday: A warming and drying trend will commence through the week for the Inland Northwest as strong high pressure off the coast blocks the region from systems approaching from the west. Temperatures will increase from the 60s and 70s to the 70s and 80s by Friday. There will be another round of showers with very isolated lightning in the northern half of eastern WA and north ID this afternoon thanks to lingering boundary layer moisture and a weakly unstable airmass. With SBCAPE values around 100-200 J/kg, any shower activity will be fairly weak. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 30 mph and very small hail around pea size or less. The best chances for these showers will be between noon to 8 PM today. A shortwave trough currently in the Yukon territory of Canada will drop down into southern Alberta Wednesday afternoon, bringing a backdoor dry cold front to the Inland NW Wednesday afternoon and evening. With this approaching wave, there will be breezy northerly winds gusting up to 30 mph Okanogan Valley. The remainder of the week will be dry with temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s. Sunday through Tuesday: There is good agreement from the global ensemble suite of a trough bringing a cooldown and chances for precipitation by later this weekend and into early next week. There are some question marks on the evolution of this trough but it is a promising sign of more precipitation coming to the INW before our dry season really kicks in. The degree to which we cool down will be dependent on whether we can get the trough overhead to spark convective showers. The coldest 25% of the global ensemble has temperatures at 500 mb around -24 to -31 degrees C by Monday night into Tuesday, similar to the trough that brought cool and showery conditions this past weekend. In the coldest 10% of scenarios, snow levels in the Cascades would drop to around 3500 feet Monday and Tuesday. There is quite a bit of spread with the 90th percentile snow level Monday and Tuesday around 9500 feet. Folks headed out into the high backcountry during this time period will want to keep a close eye on how this trough evolves early next week. This period will need to be monitored for breezy winds as well. /DB && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across far northeast Washington and north Idaho. with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Chances for showers are lower for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE around 5-10% this afternoon. Winds will increase 20Z across much of the Inland Northwest with gusts up to 20 knots and wane after sunset. The speed increase will be delayed slightly for the Cascade valleys with sustained winds 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots after 00Z at KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 67 45 70 43 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 65 45 68 42 71 47 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 Pullman 64 43 66 41 69 44 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 Lewiston 69 47 71 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 Colville 70 40 74 37 76 43 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 65 43 67 41 70 45 / 10 10 10 20 0 0 Kellogg 64 43 67 41 71 45 / 10 10 10 20 0 0 Moses Lake 73 45 77 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 72 50 77 52 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 73 47 77 47 78 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  283 FXUS63 KMQT 191820 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures through the rest of the work week. Frost is possible the next few nights. - A dry work week is followed up by light rain this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The ~1003 mb low pressure analyzed northeast of Lake Superior this afternoon continues departing to Quebec by tonight, forcing the associated cold front the rest of the way across the UP by this evening. High pressure and dry air building in from the west behind this front set up a quiet pattern for the remainder of the work week as it slides over the Great Lakes region. Precipitation does not return until this weekend as a trough over the Plains pivots northeast over the region. Details around this are murky, but impacts likely will be low as instability is nil and probabilities of exceeding 0.5 inches of rain in 24 hours holds at 10% of less. Drier and warmer weather is progged to return early next week with high pressure possibly returning. This quieter period is captured in the CPC precipitation outlooks with near normal for the 6-10 day and slightly below normal for the 8-14 day. Temps in the 60s to low 70s have been observed ahead of the cold front this afternoon, but this quickly will be replaced by 40s post fropa aside for parts of the south-central that linger in the 50s to low 60s for longer this afternoon/evening. Despite zonal flow developing aloft by Wednesday afternoon, low level CAA into Wednesday yields temps between 5-15F below normal. Lows in the 30s to low 40s tonight will only warm into the 40s to mid 50s for most on Wednesday, save for a few spots reaching low 60s south-central. Temps dip even lower Wednesday night into the upper 20s to upper 30s. While it is still early for growing season, some patchy frost is possible tonight and widespread frost is anticipated Wednesday night. A ridge over the southeast CONUS begins to build late week while a trough deepens over the Rockies. This strengthens southerly flow and WAA increasing temps closer to normal by this weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s to low 50s. Patchy frost is possible again Thursday night, but no headlines are planned yet this week given slow start to growing season. In the wake of the weekend system, a strong mid level ridge looks to build over the Midwest, favoring the warming trend to continue into next week. CPC temperature outlooks both show the UP under ~65-70% chances for above normal temps to close out the month. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front that brought light precipitation to the area overnight has exited to the east. IFR conditions are currently being observed at CMX and IWD with MVFR conditions at SAW. Northwesterly winds behind the front will bring in drier air, resulting in ceiling and visiblity conditions improving at all sites this evening. CMX and IWD are expected to improve to MVFR tonight, with VFR conditions expected at all sites after sunrise on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Pressure rises and cold air filtering over the lake support west to northwest winds of 20-30 kts into tonight over the east. Winds hold around 20 kts or less this afternoon in the west, remaining below 20 kts after this evening. Winds over the east settle below 20 kts Wednesday morning and likely remain sub-20 kts across the lake through Friday as high pressure persists over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Significant wave heights of 4-6 ft over the east hold through tonight, then settle below 4 ft by Wednesday afternoon and likely remain 4 ft or less the remainder of the forecast period. This light wind pattern may even persist into next week with no significant systems on the horizon this weekend and high pressure favored to return next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ248- 250. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...RM MARINE...77  252 FXUS66 KSTO 191820 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1120 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather prevails through the week and into the weekend with areas of Moderate HeatRisk Wednesday-Friday - Periodically breezy onshore winds return by Thursday; strongest west-southwest winds in the Delta and vicinity locations && .DISCUSSION... ...Today and Wednesday... As troughing over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest ejects eastward through the middle of the week, winds will continue to lessen relative to the past weekend. As ridging builds in offshore of the Pacific Northwest, a deepening trough over SoCal/Baja will leave interior NorCal underneath nebulous split flow mid to late week. Despite this, rising heights aloft will introduce gradually warming temperatures and areas of Moderate HeatRisk beginning on Wednesday. As a result, high temperatures in the 90s are expected in the Valley, with 70s to 80s at higher elevations. ...Thursday into the Weekend... As the split flow pattern and higher heights aloft persist into the end of the week, warm temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk look to stick around through Friday. Warmest temperatures, into the mid to upper 90s in the Valley, are anticipated on Thursday before gradually cooling toward and into the weekend. Despite some ensemble uncertainty, broad troughing aloft is on track to build in over the weekend helping to reinforce breezy onshore winds and temperatures nearer to normal for mid to late May. While periodically breezy onshore winds are expected to develop by Thursday evening, strongest winds are currently on track this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light northerly winds less than 10 kts expected through the afternoon, becoming light and variable after 00z Wednesday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  506 FXUS61 KOKX 191823 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 223 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot weather thru Wed. A heat advisory remains in effect for NE NJ and NYC. 2) An isold tstm is possible today. A cold front produces scattered tstms on Wed with damaging winds the main severe threat. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend with chances of showers. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Offshore high pressure and increasing low level SW warm air advection will make for much warmer temperatures today and Wednesday as well. Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM today to 8PM Wednesday. This is the first high heat index event of the year for NE NJ and NYC. Warmest day is today with SW flow and daytime mixing. Temperatures in the 90s for all of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and much of interior Southern CT as well as much of Nassau County NY. Mid to upper 90s for high temperatures much NE NJ and NYC Metro for temperatures and heat indices. Dewpoints are mostly in the low 60s today. Slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. This same distribution exists for high temperatures on Wednesday as well but a few degrees cooler on average. The dewpoints increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with values mainly in the low to mid 60s. So for Wednesday, temperatures a little less than the previous day but dewpoints a little higher than the previous day. Highs mostly in the lower 90s Wednesday for much of NE NJ and NYC with corresponding heat indices in the mid 90s. Again, slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Subsidence and a lack of upr lvl support should limit convective chances today, but there is a chance that an isold tstm is triggered mainly across the interior this aftn where there will be high CAPE and no CIN. Best severe chances if initiation does occur could be interior CT into the Lower Hudson Valley invof the CAPE gradient. NBM pops are generally dry, despite a Marginal Risk from SPC. Stuck with the NBM pops for now and will see what mesoscale analysis yields today. No change to the fcst thinking for Wed. The cold front looks to move in first for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT latter half of the afternoon and then crosses through the NYC Metro and coastal sections by early evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. Flooding threat minimal with the westerly flow in the atmosphere and quick steering flow. However, a quick period of heavy rain and possible minor flooding cannot be ruled out with some thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend with quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. In its place, low pressure approaches from the south and west. Model variances on how far north the low reaches. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are around 70 on Thursday. Northerly flow presents downslope warming first half of the day, allowing for coastal locations to be relatively warmer than inland. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly really limiting the daytime warmth with more maritime influence. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Offshore high pressure gives way to an approaching cold front Wednesday. The front moves across late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 18Z Wednesday outside of an isolated thunderstorm north of NYC terminals into early this evening which could produce brief MVFR or lower conditions. Winds will be primarily SW through tonight and then more WSW early Wednesday, becoming more NW late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Wind speeds generally near 10-15 kt much of the TAF period with gusts to 20-25 kt this afternoon into evening and then gusts again to near 20 kt Wednesday. Wind gusts subside late tonight into early Wednesday. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible to refine timing of showers and thunderstorms. A few hours of uncertainty with wind gusts, start and end times could be few hours off from TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night: More chances for brief MVFR or lower conditions 18Z Wednesday to 00Z Thursday with showers becoming more likely as well as a chance of thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe with brief strong gusty winds up to possibly 40 to 50 kt. Winds becoming more NW late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday evening with showers could linger along coastal terminals with MVFR or lower possible. Otherwise VFR. Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions possible early for coastal terminals and NYC terminals at times with a chance of showers. Mainly VFR thereafter. Friday: Possible showers and MVFR conditions. Chances of showers increase late day into night. Showers become likely at night. Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt. Sunday: MVFR or lower with chances of showers. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Increasing SW flow will produce SCA winds and seas on the ocean thru Wed. Marginal elsewhere, especially the LI back bays where winds will be close this aftn thru Wed. Conditions improve for Thu and Fri behind the cold front, then worsen on Sat as ely winds increase and seas build. There could be sct strong tstms invof the front on Wed. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ AVIATION...JM  594 FXUS64 KLCH 191825 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 125 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled pattern will be in place from late Tuesday into the weekend as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level disturbances to work with a very moist air mass. - The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding into early next week. - Temperatures will remain on the warm and humid side. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Midday surface analysis shows high pressure extending across the southeastern US from the Atlantic, while a cold front is draped from the Great Lakes to near DFW. The pressure gradient between these two features has again resulted in a somewhat breezy SE to S flow across the CWA today. Aloft, ridging dominates the east CONUS while troughing is over the Rockies, providing a W to SW flow overhead between these two features. A combination of southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the next several days, keeping a steady influx of warm, moist air into the region. In addition, a series of upper level shortwaves/disturbances are expected to pass overhead in the SWrly flow beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend, providing ample support for convection. Unsurprisingly, this combination of disturbances aloft and a steady stream of moisture throughout the column will bring about several days of warm and wet weather that will last through the end of the forecast period. Area radar this afternoon shows just a few isolated showers ongoing, amid otherwise cloudy skies. This trend should continue until later this evening/tonight, when the first in what is expected to be a series of MCS's arrives. CAMs are rather split on how much tonight's MCS actually holds together, with the HRRR keeping a strong line of storms all the way to the coast overnight, while other guidance shows part of the line tapering out/weakening as it draws closer to I-10. Regardless, this line will be accompanied by a chance for both excessive rainfall and severe weather, with damaging winds begin the main concern. SPC has backed off a bit, now including majority of the region (excluding lower Acadiana) in a Marginal Risk (previous SLGT Risk was trimmed back). On the other hand, WPC has bumped things up a bit, now outlining nearly all of SE TX in a Slight Risk with the remaining area in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Both of these risks will begin to ramp up this evening and continue through the early morning hours tomorrow, before another lull in convection arrives by sunrise. Tomorrow through Saturday, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists area-wide each day as several more rounds of rainfall are expected. However, like today, periods of dry conditions will occur between rounds of showers and storms each day. While it won't be possible to predict who/where exactly will get rain each day, guidance is hitting hard on the largest rainfall totals occurring over SE TX and CENLA, with the lower end totals over Acadiana. Beyond Saturday, long range guidance shows little change in the overall pattern, with more upper level shortwaves arriving on Sun/Mon which will more than likely induce more rounds of showers and storms through Memorial Day. Temperature wise, very little day to day changes are expected as showers/cloud cover will keep highs in the mid 80s each day, while a warm and moist airmass will hold overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A light to moderate southeast to south flow around 5-15 kts and light to modest seas around 1-4 feet will persist through the week and into the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase by Wednesday and remain high through the week into the weekend as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A light to moderate southerly flow will continue through the next several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon Minimum RH values will be around 70 percent or greater each day through the weekend. High chances for daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week into early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...17  558 FXUS65 KBOI 191824 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1224 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory for the western Magic Valley until 8 AM MDT this morning. - Warming trend and continued generally dry the rest of the week. Monday should be the warmest day. - Cold front early Tuesday, then windy and turning cooler with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 248 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Patchy frost this morning in the western Magic Valley but Wednesday morning will be milder with no frost. Gradual warming trend today through Thursday as the main upper trough shifts east of the Continental Divide. However, another weaker upper trough, in BC early this morning, will dig southward into eastern ID Wednesday and limit the warming in our area. This second trough will be close enough to our CWA for a slight chance of showers in eastern Valley County Wednesday evening, and also slightly stronger wind in the Magic Valley Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, no eventful weather through Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 248 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Western US by the end of this week, bringing generally warm and dry conditions to the region through Monday. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above normal. On Saturday, a quick moving shortwave trough will move through the region bringing low chances of showers and thunderstorms (<10% chance) over high terrain in southwest Idaho and the OR-NV border. The ridge will reach peak strength on Sunday, with high temperatures near 90F in the Treasure Valley. By Monday, there is widespread model agreement in a deep upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest. The low will then move into the region on Tuesday, cooling temperatures off by 10-20 degrees and bringing breezy winds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance). && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1214 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR. Scattered high based cumulus clouds will continue over the area with some producing virga and gusty winds. Surface winds generally W to NW at 5-15 kts, except in the vicinity of virga where gusts to 35 kts are possible this afternoon. Winds light and variable less than 10 kts tonight across the area. Winds W-NW 10 to 15 kts on Wednesday. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds NW 10 to 15 kts this afternoon. Winds light and variable less than 5 kts tonight. Winds W-NW 10 to 15 kts on Wednesday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION...JB SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....SA  679 FXPQ50 PGUM 191826 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 426 AM ChST Wed May 20 2026 .Marianas Update... The going forecast remains in good shape with no changes needed. The main focus continues to be on the high rip risk for east facing reefs, which looks to continue through Thursday afternoon. && .Eastern Micronesia Update... For Pohnpei, convection is located to your north and east, but very nearby to your area. An area of enhanced surface convergence is moving into the area and should act as a focus for numerous shower development. The going forecast has this well in hand, with the only changes made were to increase rainfall potential to 70 percent for today and tonight, while also lowering the afternoon high slightly. The current forecast at Kosrae and Majuro looks good with no changes made there. && .Western Micronesia Update... We lowered afternoon high temperatures at Palau and Chuuk for today, given the expected increase in cloud cover and convection. For Yap, a weak convergence pattern still favors scattered show potential, but minimal activity this morning casts some doubt. As such, we lowered rainfall potential there to 30 percent for today and tonight. otherwise, no other changes were needed. && .Prev discussion... /issued 547 PM ChST Tue May 19 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Isolated showers and partly cloudy skies will linger for the Marianas through the next few days. Combined seas are 6 to 8 feet and a high risk of rip currents is in effect along east-facing reefs until Thursday afternoon. The region may see increasingly wetter conditions over the weekend. Discussion... The Marianas remains in a relatively dry trade-wind regime for the next few days. Satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies and isolated showers that look to continue through tonight. A brief period in higher winds is in store for Wednesday as easterly wind speeds will be between 15 and 20 miles per hour with occasional gusts up to 30 miles per hour. As we enter the latter half of the week, overall conditions may start to shift on Thursday. Model guidance shows a slight decrease in trade winds and an increase from isolated to low-end scattered showers until the weekend. There is still support from the models for a wetter period starting this weekend through early next week, so chances of showers were adjusted higher to reflect that trend. A slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast as models continue to depict either a surface trough or a potential disturbance originating in central Micronesia and shifting northwest, possibly impacting the Marianas beyond Memorial Day. This will continue to be monitored and communicated throughout the next several days. Marine... Combined seas of 6 to 8 feet are expected to remain through Thursday afternoon. Buoy data continues to support swells capable of producing surf up to 9 feet, and model guidance depicts little changes in the sea state for the next few days, so the high risk of rip currents along east-facing reefs is in effect until Thursday afternoon. Current model guidance shows wave heights to gradually decrease by a foot or two starting Thursday afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Eastern Micronesia... An increasingly unsettled, but disorganized pattern continues to build across the region. An Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) extends eastward across Pohnpei and Kosrae States from over central Micronesia, interacting with trade-wind troughs centered just west of Pohnpei, west of Kosrae, and with a very broad upper-level low located far to the north-northeast. Farther east, another ITCZ fragment builds just east of the Marshall Islands with a trade-wind trough propagating westward along it. These features are producing areas of numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms within eastern Micronesia. Pohnpei and Kosrae are situated on the northern periphery of the showers and thunderstorms associated with the ITCZ to the south, and Majuro sits along the very western edge of the advancing trough, ITCZ fragment, and associated convection. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, with locally heavy rainfall possible at times, are expected for all three forecast zones for tonight, remaining numerous for Pohnpei and Kosrae through at least Wednesday, but tapering to scattered for Majuro for the next day or so. Models continue to be aggressive in depicting a very wet pattern throughout the week, and showers will likely increase to become widespread from time to time over the next few days, with little certainty in exact timing. The upper-level low north-northeast of the region is expected to remain semi-stationary as it weakens, extending westward as an open trough over the next few days. Despite weakening, the trough's position and orientation look to maintain good upper-level support for showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern Micronesia, mainly over Pohnpei and Kosrae States this week. Meanwhile, the ITCZ to the south looks to fragment and shift westward, helping to form a broad, disorganized disturbance across central Micronesia. Strong convergence upstream of this disturbance, with decent upper-level support, looks to maintain at least scattered showers across the region through the latter half of the week. Benign marine conditions are expected through the week. Latest altimetry data indicates combined seas between 6 and 7 feet across much of the region. Models depict a very gradual relaxation of the east to northeast trade swell throughout the week, allowing seas to diminish by a foot or so over the next several days. Western Micronesia... Satellite observations show scattered showers over Yap and Chuuk with isolated showers over Palau. Altimetry data shows combined seas between 4 and 7 feet. The robust convection that moved over Yap today has begun to wane, but scattered showers are still occurring beneath the warming cirrus. Across Chuuk State including Weno, scattered showers are seen from trade-wind convergence residing over the region. An active weather pattern will setup across much of western Micronesia over the next week. A monsoon-like trough is developing south of Palau and will intensify through the week. Eventually, this looks to become a full fledged monsoon trough this weekend or early next week. This monsoon- like or monsoon trough is expected to interact with a tropical disturbance as well. The combination of these two features will bring unsettled weather, beginning across Chuuk on Wednesday and then eastern Yap State this weekend and into next week. Uncertainty remains high with guidance split on whether there will be a northward pull of moisture, or if we'll see a more westward push. The former scenario would delay active weather for Yap Proper and Palau, but would keep them in westerly flow as the monsoon tail forms, placing a train of showers and thunderstorms over them. The latter scenario would shift the bulk of the disturbance over Yap and Palau, but would also exit the region faster. Currently, both the ECMWF and GFS deterministic favor scenario one with their respective ensembles closer to scenario one but more in the middle. The Canadian (CMC) and it's ensembles favor scenario two more. For now, the forecast tries to remain in the middle of these scenarios. Combined seas are between 4 and 7 feet across western Micronesia. On a broader scale, combined seas are expected to fall this week as winds begin to weaken due to trade-winds to the north and strong westerlies to the south; with the islands caught in between within a lull. Seas couldbecome elevated across Yap and Palau late in the forecast period as the potential monsoon trough builds into the region. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas/East and West Micronesia Update: Doll Marianas: Mesa East Micronesia: DeCou West Micronesia: Williams  727 FXUS61 KALY 191826 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 226 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Convective outlook has been adjusted slightly and the slight risk remove from our area for today, as the best forcing and organized storms may remain west of the region. Still, a threat for isolated damaging winds continue for today for northern areas. POPs have lowered somewhat for tomorrow along the front as precip should be more scattered. Many areas may stay dry and the threat for just isolated strong-to-severe storms looks to be for far southern areas, and may be a greater threat south/southwest of the region. Models continue to disagree on the handling of precip for this weekend, with some guidance now suggesting && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well-above normal temps continue this afternoon. With Heat Risk values in the moderate to locally major categories, there is an increased risk this afternoon for heat-related illnesses. 2) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening for northern areas and again on Wednesday for southern parts of the region. There is a marginal risk for storms to be severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. 3) A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected Thursday into Friday with the next chance for a widespread rainfall over the weekend, although the exact timing, duration and amount of rainfall is still uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Another hot and humid day is ongoing across the region. 12z KALY sounding showed 850 hpa temps of around +18 C. Valley areas have already risen into the upper 80s to low 90s. With dewpoints in the 60s, heat index values are in the low to mid 90s in many valley areas, with the highest values in the mid Hudson Valley where a Heat Advisory is in effect. These values will continue through the early evening hours, but will start to lower for tonight. Heat Risk values are in the moderate to major category, which is rather significant for mid May. With a lot of people still not used to the heat just yet, there will be an increased risk for heat related illnesses through the rest of the day. Cooler and drier air will be arriving with a cold front for Wednesday. While northern areas will see relief early in the day with steady/falling temps for the day, far southern areas will be ahead of the front for much of the day. Highs will be close 90 in the mid Hudson Valley once again with moderate Heat Risk. Cooler and drier will arrive for the entire area for Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGE 2... Our region is on the northern fringe of a large upper level ridge centered over the eastern seaboard. Upper level shortwave is well west of the area over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front remains well upstream of the region over the Great Lakes, although a pre-frontal surface trough is located over the area. SPC mesoanalysis shows 0-6 km bulk shear is around 30 kts, with the highest values across northern parts of the area. Meanwhile, a warm and humid airmass (surface temps approaching 90 in many areas) is allowing for instability, with MLCAPE mainly in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with the best values to the south. With the warm temps aloft, mid level lapse rates are rather poor, generally under 6 deg C/km. Low level lapse rates are strong, however, due to the strong solar heating today. Overall, coverage of storms this afternoon into this evening looks isolated to scattered. Based off the latest CAMs, activity may develop over the next few hours across northern areas and slide eastward, although it may not get too organized across our area with the better forcing still well off to the west. There is enough overlap of shear/instability for a few storms to be severe and damaging winds would be the main threats due to the decent shear and strong low level lapse rates. While a few reports of damaging winds can't be ruled out, the limited forcing and poor mid level lapse rates will likely keep a large severe outbreak from occurring. On Wednesday, some additional storms will be possible across far southern areas in the afternoon hours, as the main cold front settles southward. The rest of the area will be behind the boundary, but Dutchess and Litchfield Counties could see a few strong storms with another day of warm and humid weather expected ahead of the front. SPC maintains a marginal risk for far southern parts of our area, although AI/ML guidance suggests that there may be a slightly higher threat further south across PA/NJ or coastal New England. KEY MESSAGE 3... West to northwest flow will take over for the late week. More seasonable temps are expected for Thursday and Friday with valley highs mainly in the 60s. Overnight temps will be in the 40s, with some mid to upper 30s over the highest terrain. Dry and comfortable weather will be in place for all of Thursday and Friday with a partly to mostly clear sky. Unsettled weather is expected for the weekend, although model guidance has been varying regarding the exact timing of precip. A period of steady rainfall is possible thanks to surface low pressure heading towards the Great Lakes and warm advection/ isentropic lift ahead of the warm front. This could occur as early as Saturday, although latest model guidance has been slowing down the timing of this and/or keeping the bulk of it to the south and west. For now, have gone close to the NBM with likely POPs for Saturday, but there is potential for drier weather. While there should be a break at some point (perhaps for Sunday), another round of showers is expected (Sunday night and/or Monday) as the main upper level disturbances tracks across the region. For now, will keep POPs close to chance for Sun/Mon. While some rain is possible, it may not be totally raining entirely these two days, so some dry weather is possible for a portion of the Holiday Weekend. With the clouds and possible precip, temps may be held down somewhat this weekend, with mid to upper 60s, although if some sun does occur, then highs in the 70s are certainly possible. Ultimately, it will depend on the exact timing/track of the precip, which should come into better focus over the next few days. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday... VFR conditions are expected across all terminals for most of the TAF period. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, primarily at KGFL and KPSF. While we have plenty of instability for storms to develop, the overall lack of forcing is keeping confidence low at this time, so reflected this by using PROB30 groups at KGFL and KPSF. Brief periods of MVFR vis are possible with heavy downpours associated with these storms, but cigs should remain VFR. Southwesterly gusty winds start off the TAF period across all terminals, which will begin to subside around 22Z-00Z tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will begin to pass through the region around 12Z Wednesday, with winds shifting out of the west to west-northwest and a return of gusts up to 20-30 kts. Brief periods of MVFR cigs are possible tomorrow morning at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF before scattering back up to VFR by the end of the period at all terminals except for KPSF. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .CLIMATE... High Temperature Records: May 19 - Today Albany, NY: 91 degrees set in 1989 Glens Falls, NY: 88 degrees set in 1989 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064-065. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...23 CLIMATE...31/15  700 FXUS62 KMHX 191826 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 226 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal to near- record high temperatures and rain- free conditions to continue Wednesday. 2) A frontal system approaches the area Thursday, bringing the next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath an anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through tomorrow. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses this afternoon and tomorrow's yielding highs generally in the lower 90s across the coastal plain, but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s. This will fall a few degrees short of records, but is still around 10 degrees above normal for mid to late May. Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging aloft will provide sufficient subsidence to suppress convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze (the usual suspect spots over Dare County and Down East Carteret come to mind here). Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the forecast this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break down some starting Thursday and into the weekend, allowing a front to drop south late Thursday into Friday and then stall as it encounters the persistent ridging that has been over the region for much of the past week. Confidence continues to increase on the front reaching our CWA, with the most likely outcome being the front briefly stalling between the NC/SC border and Cape Hatteras. The front will likely linger over the area for a couple days before the boundary eventually lifts back northward over the weekend with ridging building back in its wake. The trend of a slower frontal passage has held this morning, with the front not reaching our area from the north until mid-afternoon. Therefore, forecast highs will once again reach the 80s and 90s with persistent southerly flow. Increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance depicts a 30-40% chance of over a quarter inch of rainfall, especially along and north of Highway 64 along the frontal boundary on Thursday. Ahead of the front, the pre- storm environment should be sufficiently unstable for a few storms as CAPE rises to 1000-1500 J/kg. With forecast steep low-level lapse rates and modest dry air aloft, combined with PWATs in the 1.5-1.75" range, the environment would be marginally conducive for the risk of a strong downburst in a more organized storm. Said organization, however, would require some amount of deep level shear and this appears lacking with 0-6 km values under 20 kt. The odds of a stronger storm appear to be around 10% or less as of this afternoon, in line with CSU and NCAR ML guidance, but trends will continue to be monitored. The severe risk will likely be muted on Friday with the frontal boundary to our south, then return to a low-probability regime for Saturday. Beyond here, the front becomes weak enough that diurnal sea and sound breezes become dominant, focusing the highest shower and thunderstorm chances inland. Each of these days carries a low, highly conditional severe risk as well per ML guidance. Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over urban areas like Greenville, Jacksonville, and New Bern, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing drought. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions across the terminals this afternoon. Given the similar set up and little change to the airmass, fog and low stratus chances return with another night of light winds and low level moisture. Best chances at OAJ/EWN/ISO. Locally dense fog will be possible. Conditions improve quickly after 12z. Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions Thu into the weekend. && .MARINE... A summer-like pattern continues through tomorrow, with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters within 20nm of the coast, where funneling could result in some brief periods of 25kt gusts in the afternoon. Seas will continue to hover around 2-3ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening. Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area Thursday, then meander around the area through the upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front, with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the front across the Ablemarle Sound and adjacent waters on Thursday afternoon and evening. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Sunday as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MS AVIATION...CQD MARINE...MS  814 FXUS64 KJAN 191827 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 127 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms are possible over western portions of the area this evening. - The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will need to be monitored for the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 In the near term, the threat for severe weather has diminished some with most guidance showing a more limited shear/thermodynamic environment as a convective system over the ArkLaTex region makes its way toward northwestern portions of our area. The shear/boundary relationship is less than ideal for getting severe weather with this system, however, if storms develop in the increasing low level warm advection during peak ahead of the system, then those storms could move in more favorable direction to take advantage of the low level shear and bring some gusty winds. With all of that said, we've removed the slight risk and trimmed back the marginal risk area some based on the latest guidance. Looking ahead, an unusually long duration of wet weather is setting up for the foreseeable future as a large and persistent trough to ridge longwave pattern sets up over the CONUS. In the big picture, this will bring our region a steady stream of subtropical moisture with seasonably high precipitable water values, and multiple upper level perturbations that will provide lift and help initiate multiple rounds of convective rainfall. Given that precipitation efficiency will be high, we'll need to monitor for potential heavy rainfall threat areas where deep convection can persist the longest. SLU CIPS analogs reveal some heavy rainfall analogs from the historic archives that suggest a flash flood threat could evolve based on our current guidance forecasts, but the details are too uncertain as of now to provide formal messaging. Keep in mind that with each day that accumulates significant rainfall, antecedent conditions will become more favorable for a flood threat. Otherwise, it appears the thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly favorable for severe weather concerns given the deep layer moisture and influence from the southeast CONUS. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 As of 1729Z, all TAF sites are reporting VFR ceilings to start off the period. VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area through 06Z. After 06Z, SHRA/TSRA will move into the area from the nw during the evening and will spread over central and northern sites resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings. South TAF sites will see flight conditions drop to MVFR/IFR/LIFR by 09Z. Poor flying conditions will prevail across the south through 14Z. After 14Z, ceilings will begin to improve to VFR across south TAF sites. MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail across central/northern sites through 15Z. After 15Z, ceilings will slowly begin to improve to VFR conditions. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 86 69 86 / 60 70 50 70 Meridian 70 88 68 88 / 20 30 30 40 Vicksburg 71 85 69 84 / 70 70 70 80 Hattiesburg 70 89 68 88 / 10 40 20 50 Natchez 72 86 70 86 / 60 60 60 80 Greenville 71 84 68 83 / 80 80 70 80 Greenwood 71 85 69 84 / 70 80 60 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/CR  954 FXUS62 KJAX 191829 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 229 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Risk Of Rip Currents this Afternoon at All Area Beaches. - Widely Scattered Thunderstorms Across North Central FL and Portions of the Suwannee Valley this Afternoon through Early this Evening. - Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early on Wednesday Morning for Inland Southeast GA. - Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Early Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations from Wednesday through Friday. - Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area-Wide from Saturday through Memorial Day. - Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - High Risk Of Rip Currents this Afternoon at All Area Beaches. - Widely Scattered Thunderstorms Across North Central FL and Portions of the Suwannee Valley this Afternoon through Early this Evening. - Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early on Wednesday Morning for Inland Southeast GA. Afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1027 millibars) centered near Bermuda, with this feature extending its axis westward across the southeastern states. Meanwhile, a wavy frontal boundary extends from northern New England and across southern Canada, through the western Great Lakes, and southwestward across the Ozarks and Southern Plains. Aloft...ridging prevails over the Gulf, with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) located north of the Bahamas that is now moving northward, with this feature being steered by the deep-layered ridge near Bermuda. Latest GOES- East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deeper moisture has advected across north central FL and the Suwannee Valley in the easterly flow pattern, where PWATs were near or just above 1.5 inches. PWATS elsewhere across northeast FL and southeast GA have generally risen to around 1.25 inches, which is just slightly below late May climatology. Low level convergence in the deep onshore flow pattern and the presence of increased moisture levels have developed widely scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across north central FL this afternoon, with activity mostly located south of Gainesville as of 18Z. Temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 80s inland, with breezy onshore winds keeping coastal temperatures in the lower 80s. Dewpoints at 18Z ranged from the mid 60s across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley to the lower 70s across north central and coastal northeast FL. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will generally shift west- northwestward from north central FL towards the Interstate 75 corridor in the Suwannee Valley as the afternoon progresses. Locally heavy downpours and cloud to ground lightning strikes will be the main hazards with this activity, mostly across central and western portions of Marion County. Otherwise, a drier air mass will advect across our area tonight from east to west, as our region becomes influenced a little more by the aforementioned TUTT circulation that is positioned off the southeastern seaboard. PWATs overnight should fall below 1.25 inches, and a more subsident air mass and clear skies should allow for a greater coverage of fog formation for inland locations north of Interstate 10 towards sunrise on Wednesday. The drier air mass advecting over our area, clear skies, and decoupling winds overnight should allow lows to fall to the low and mid 60s at most inland locations, except upper 60s for north central FL. A light onshore breeze will keep coastal lows closer to 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily isolated thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor. Drier air in place will limit showers and storms over much of the area Wednesday and Thursday, however isolated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon over north central Florida, and again on Thursday afternoon over north central FL and near I-75. The persistent east-southeast flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up range from 15 mph to 20 mph each afternoon. Inland high temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s, whereas coastal highs will stay a little cooler with the sea breeze, in the mid to upper 80s I-95 eastward. Mild low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s both nights, with chances for patchy inland fog both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... - Hot temperatures continue through the weekend. - Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week. Rain and storm chances increase Friday through Monday areawide as southerly flow allows both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes to develop and meet in a more central location. Storms will primarily develop in the afternoons, beginning to dissipate around sunset. PWATs will trend towards the 1.5" to 1.75" range, possibly as high as 2" for some locations over SE GA by Sunday, which could lead to locally heavy downpours for any storms that develop. The hot temperatures will continue through the weekend as highs will rise to lower to mid 90s across inland locations outside of convective activity, while the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the upper 60s to 70s area- wide. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Showers and a few thunderstorms developing across north central FL this afternoon should remain south of the GNV terminal, and we have maintained vicinity shower coverage at this time. Please check for amendments for GNV until this activity shifts west of the terminal after 22Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z at the regional terminals. Periods of IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to develop after 05Z at VQQ. Easterly surface winds sustained at 10-15 knots through around 01Z. Surface winds will then shift to southeasterly after 02Z, with speeds gradually diminishing overnight. Speeds will increase to 5-10 knots by 15Z Wednesday, followed by winds shifting to east-southeast and increasing to around 10 knots before 18Z. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis westward across the southeastern states through the end of the week. This feature will maintain a prevailing east to southeasterly wind flow across our local waters during the next several days. A frontal boundary will briefly stall over the southeastern states late this week. Caution level wind speeds will be possible for the near shore waters during the late afternoon and evening hours from Friday through early next week as Atlantic high pressure becomes reinforced near Bermuda. Only isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected through Saturday, with a slight increase in coverage possible towards Memorial Day. Rip Currents: Persistent easterly winds and surf of 2-4 ft will keep a high risk of rip currents in place today at all area beaches, with at least a moderate risk on Wednesday and Thursday. High risks are expected again from Friday through the upcoming Holiday weekend, as late afternoon and evening east to southeasterly wind surges return. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersions This Week. The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon this week. With the persistent onshore flow, moisture will continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic, convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and coverage of showers and storms is expected. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the week. Patchy to areas of locally dense fog possible on Wednesday morning for inland southeast GA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 90 65 91 / 10 10 0 10 SSI 70 84 73 86 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 65 89 69 92 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 71 87 72 89 / 10 10 0 10 GNV 66 93 69 94 / 10 20 0 10 OCF 68 92 70 93 / 10 20 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None. && $$  946 FXUS63 KIWX 191829 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 229 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible today through 9 PM EDT. - Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main threats. Low but non-zero risk for hail and an isolated tornado. - Warm and humid again today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Cooler and dry midweek with highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. - Next chance for rain and a few storms arrive Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front currently positioned over Wisconsin and Illinois will swing eastward and through the local forecast area this evening. Ahead of this front, strong to severe storms will become possible this afternoon and evening. The region is well into the warm sector with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moisture combined with daytime heating supports SBCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, especially east of the I-69 corridor where cloud cover has been minimal today. Destabilization is beginning to occur with cumulus development evident on satellite. The best chances for strong to severe storms will be 3-9 PM EDT today. The greatest risk area will be along and south of US-24, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place. Shear is still expected to be weak given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, but it will be better than the past few days at 20 to 30 kts. With weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or line segments. Given DCAPE over 1000 J/kg this afternoon and evening and steep low level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, damaging winds will be the main threat today. Confidence in isolated tornado chances is decreasing due to current low level SRH less than 150 m2/s2, and forecast to decrease today. If one were to develop, the potential is still greatest in NW Ohio, which will have the longest time to heat up and destabilize today as the cold front takes its time moving in from west to east. With PWATs now around 1.5-1.6", even if storm clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr. After the passage of the cold front, the second half of the workweek will be much cooler with highs only in the 60s through Friday. Rain showers will likely be continuing southeast of US-24 on Wednesday morning before drier air moves in. The next chance for rain will then be on Friday afternoon in association with a shortwave coming up from the southwest. We could get a bit of a break on Saturday before a stronger upper trough moves across the region on Sunday. Unsettled weather will also be possible on Memorial Day, especially south of US-30, but model agreement is poor so there is low confidence in forecast specifics. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Afternoon destabilization ahead of a cold front is expected to allow storms to develop rapidly. The satellite picture indicated a line of convection was developing near the southeast shore of Lake Michigan. There was a very tight CAPE gradient over Indiana with values between 2500 to 3000 J/Kg to the east (and values much lower to the west). All indications are storms will develop rapidly near and and northwest of SBN, so have included SBN in thunderstorms at the start of the TAF period. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front with the activity moving southeast of SBN. As for FWA, convection should fill in with the front, so went for a higher confidence (22-02Z) with chances for storms after 02Z. Winds should shift to the northwest at both sites with lingering ceilings VFR or close to 030. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cobb AVIATION...Skipper  920 FXUS64 KBRO 191828 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 128 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 107 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Key Messages: * Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across ALL of Deep South Texas late tonight into Wednesday morning. * Daily rain/thunderstorm chances continue into next week. * Hot and humid conditions will continue this week with a Moderate to Major Heat Risk today and tomorrow. * A High Risk for Rip Currents is also in effect through this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 This week into next will feature multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist into early next week, with multiple perturbations tracking over the region. At the surface, ample moisture will be in place and pool ahead of a stalled frontal boundary in central Texas. Combined, this will lead to daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. PWATs will remain extremely high across the area at 1.75-2.5 inches through the week, which is well above normal, so any convection that does develop could produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Tonight, there is a conditional threat for severe weather across Deep South Texas and the Storm Prediction Center has placed ALL of Deep South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level of 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms through tonight. A complex of thunderstorms will develop north of the region and move south/southeast late tonight into Wednesday morning. If this line holds together through Deep South Texas and is severe, the main threats will be damaging winds in excess of 58 mph and large hail. Brief heavy rain will also be possible with this activity and could lead to localized ponding of water. The Storm Prediction Center keeps Deep South Texas in a general risk of thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, though we can not rule out the potential for additional severe weather through the week. The Weather Prediction Center has placed Zapata, Jim Hogg, western Starr and northwestern Brooks counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall on Wednesday, and all of Deep South Texas in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday though Saturday. Now through Sunday morning we are currently expecting generally 1 to 2 inches across the region with localized areas of 3 to 4 inches. Areas that see multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms could potentially see higher totals through the weekend. Outside of thunderstorm/rain chances, heat will be an additional weather headline through the week. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s through Saturday. There is a a Moderate to Major Heat Risk today an tomorrow with a Minor to Moderate heat risk Thursday through next Tuesday. At area beaches, there is a high risk of rip currents through this evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 While VFR conditions will prevail at BRO and MFE there could be a mix with MVFR before all aerodromes fall to MVFR this evening. Southeasterly winds will gust between 25 and 30 kts through this afternoon before decreasing overnight. We are continuing to watch for a chance of showers and thunderstorms to move through late tonight though there is still low confidence on exact timing and whether this activity will make it this far south, therefore have not introduced and TS in this TAF package. If showers and thunderstorms do make it this far south could see some brief IFR/LIFR, most likely near daybreak. We will likely see some lower visibility near daybreak regardless of precip but stay within MVFR guidelines. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Slightly adverse marine conditions continue on the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters through tonight becoming more favorable through the rest of the forecast period. Ongoing shower and thunderstorms chances through the weekend may lead to localized higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 92 80 91 / 10 10 10 30 HARLINGEN 78 92 76 92 / 20 10 10 40 MCALLEN 79 94 78 92 / 30 20 20 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 94 75 93 / 40 40 40 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 81 85 / 20 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 90 79 90 / 20 10 10 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...68  075 FXUS62 KTBW 191830 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours. - Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure remains well off the southeast U.S. coast with the somewhat breezy easterly flow across the region. This should once again lead to the highest rain chances near the west coast later this afternoon and evening where the sea breeze will be pinned. Any convection will move out into the gulf later this evening and dissipate with fair dry weather overnight into early Wednesday morning. For Wednesday and Thursday the easterly flow does diminish some which should allow the west coast sea breeze to move inland, especially from around the Tampa Bay area northward where it should make it to around or east of I-75. At the same time an upper level low will be lingering off the Florida east coast lowering heights some and with enough moisture in place, precipitable water 1.4 to 1.6 inches, we'll see more scattered convection each afternoon and evening with highest chances from inland west central Florida into southwest Florida. Late in the week into early next week, upper level ridging will build over the peninsula while the surface high holds off the southeast U.S. coast. This will keep the low level east to southeast flow across the region and with enough moisture we'll continue to see scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible this afternoon and evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with easterly winds around 10 knots this morning then diminishing to 4 to 7 knots overnight. Could see a shift to westerly at SRQ early this afternoon before convection gets going, otherwise the overall easterly flow will persist into this evening then diminish to 4 to 7 knots overnight. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The easterly flow will continue as high pressure remains off the southeast U.S. coast. The main hazard will continue to be afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms that move west off land. Some of this convection could cause locally strong gusty winds and hazardous seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Plenty of low level moisture will hold over the are for the next several days keeping relative humidity values above critical levels. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 74 91 75 92 / 30 30 20 20 FMY 74 93 74 94 / 20 70 50 40 GIF 72 92 72 92 / 10 50 30 30 SRQ 73 92 74 92 / 40 30 30 20 BKV 68 93 70 94 / 20 20 20 20 SPG 75 93 76 93 / 40 20 20 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Close  088 FXUS63 KDMX 191830 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler from today through Friday, with daily highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s. Late tonight/early Wednesday low temperatures will range in the mid-40s southeast to mid/upper 30s north and west, where patchy frost will be possible. - The forecast is dry from tonight through Wednesday, then rain chances will gradually increase Thursday and peak on Friday when showers will be likely (60-80% chance) with a few thunderstorms. Severe weather is unlikely. - Temperatures will warm this weekend into early next week, with daily highs returning to the 70s and 80s. Rain chances will be generally lower during that time, but some showers or storms may still be possible at times. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 It has been decidedly cooler today, with thick stratus clouds and brisk northwest winds keeping temperatures in the upper 40s northwest to upper 50s southeast early this afternoon. Cold air advection will weaken this afternoon, but the clouds will still inhibit warming and temperatures will peak in the mid-50s northwest to lower 60s southeast today. Meanwhile, a large surface high pressure ridge is building across the Dakotas, and will move eastward into Minnesota and northern Iowa tonight. This will cause winds to steadily diminish later today and this evening, becoming much lighter and gradually turning from northwest to northeast by Wednesday morning. The primary forecast question during this time pertains to the degree and timing of clearing that occurs, and how far temperatures fall overnight as a result. Forecast soundings depict a rapid drying of the cloud layer during the evening, roughly coincident and just after sunset, which is consistent with climatological expectations. High-resolution model output also supports this scenario, however, thus far today the model depiction of cloud cover evolution has been well below what is being observed in satellite imagery. That being said, over the last couple hours some slight clearing has been evident on satellite upstream, closer to the center of the high pressure ridge, and the expectation is that we will in fact gradually clear out this evening and early tonight. This will result in prime conditions for radiational cooling overnight into early Wednesday, especially in our northern and western areas where clearing will occur earlier, and where the high pressure area will build in sooner. Temperatures in these areas will fall into the 30s by sunrise Wednesday, however, frost formation is still uncertain due to two primary factors. One is that dewpoints are predicted to be in the mid-30s, so temperatures may not fall below the 35-37 degree range. The other is that while winds will be light, the core of the high pressure ridge will remain over Minnesota and South Dakota, and winds in our area may not go completely calm. Have included an hour or two of patchy frost in just a few spots in our northern counties, but have held off on a Frost Advisory for now due to these mitigating factors. Whether an advisory becomes warranted later today or not, there is some possibility of frost particularly in low-lying areas of northern Iowa and over toward the Nish valley. From Wednesday into Thursday Iowa will lie beneath west southwesterly 500 MB steering flow, through which a couple of very subtle shortwave impulses will move. While these will provide some modest but broad forcing for ascent, initially any precipitation attempting to develop will be fighting low-level dry air/subsidence associated with the slowly departing surface high pressure system. Initially this will result in increasing mid/high level clouds on Wednesday, then by Wednesday night and Thursday we will see gradually increasing rain chances returning to the area, especially our southern counties farther from the influence of the departing high pressure. PoPs increase to 40-50% in that area by Thursday afternoon, however, a lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms or severe weather during this time. The increasing clouds and persistent easterly surface flow out of the high pressure area will support a continuation of cooler weather, however, with high temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday ranging in the upper 50s to mid-60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 By Thursday evening a 500 MB trough will be moving over the U.S. Rockies, and will subsequently become negatively tilted as it emerges over the northern High Plains Thursday night and Friday. As this trough swings across the region, it will generate a broad swath of rain associated with surging moisture, increasing winds aloft, and modest theta-e advection. This swath will enter our southwestern counties Thursday night and move across our forecast area on Friday. Instability will be very limited with surface temperatures only in the 50s to lower 60s, but will still be sufficient for a few elevated thunderstorms at times though severe weather will be unlikely. The rain will move out to the northeast late Friday, after which one last lobe of vorticity clearing out the larger-scale trough will cross Iowa late Saturday. Moisture will be much more limited and it remains to be seen whether any additional showers or thunderstorms will occur in association with that feature. For now 70-80% POPs are carried across Iowa Thursday night into Friday, with only 10-20% POPs on Saturday. In the first half of next week, from around Sunday to Wednesday, a large thermal trough will build over the central U.S., as a blocking pattern sets up with a large 500 MB low forming over the western U.S. Synoptically this would tend to support significantly warmer and generally dry weather for our region. However, there will initially be a week 500 MB trough/low over Texas as the larger ridge begins forming on Sunday, and long- range models are at odds with how that feature will interact with the ridge. The EC and GEM essentially wash out the low as it is overwhelmed by the larger thermal ridge, however, the GFS maintains it as a discrete feature that becomes trapped in the ridge and advects slowly northward over Iowa early next week. This leads to rapidly decreasing confidence in forecast details in the outer periods, however, even in the GFS solution generally warmer temperatures would still be favored, and it seems a safe bet that the cool weather of today and the next several days will be broken as we head into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low stratus clouds are blanketing the area with MVFR ceilings this afternoon. These will slowly rise this afternoon and eventually clear out late today or early tonight, though timing of the clearing is uncertain. Have indicated these trends in the 18Z TAFs, but amendments are possible as the day progresses based on satellite and surface observations. Once ceilings break up and/or rise above FL030, VFR conditions are then forecast for the remainder of the TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Lee  056 FXUS63 KGRB 191830 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Wednesday night as lows fall into the low to mid 30s over the Northwoods. - Below normal temperatures continue throughout the week, warming back up during the weekend. - Scattered showers (30 to 60% chance) arrive Friday afternoon, lasting through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 GOES imagery and current obs show the cold front over eastern Wisconsin as of this afternoon, with winds having largely shifted to the northwest in its wake. Shower activity associated with the front has begun to erode as drier air feeds in from high pressure to the northwest. However, isolated showers will remain possible through this evening due to steepening lapse rates within CAA regime, though thunder chances will be little to none as any daytime instability wanes. Rain chances... Next chance (30 to 60%) for scattered showers arrives Friday afternoon in tandem with decent shortwave energy, lasting through much of Saturday. Moisture influx during this time will be modest as we set up under marginal return flow, with PWATs approaching one inch Friday evening. However, most instability looks to remain holed up to our south in proximity to the warm front, resulting in little to no severe weather potential. Furthermore, lack of upper-level dynamics and surface forcing mechanism would suggest very little thunder potential in general. Synoptic flow then flattens out early next week before ridging eventually builds over much of the eastern CONUS, keeping us mostly dry through the middle of next week. Temperatures... Below normal post-FROPA temperatures persist through the weekend, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees in some areas through the end of the work week. As high pressure sits and spins overhead, frost/freeze headlines may be needed at times as lows dip down into the low to mid 30s. Current thinking is that Wednesday night would be the better setup for frost development over the Northwoods due to light winds and windows for clearing. Tonight's frost potential seems more marginal under mostly overcast skies, and would be confined mainly to Vilas county regardless. As such, have opted against a Frost Advisory for tonight. Highs then gradually moderate back to near normal by the end of the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR stratus deck has persisted over most of the forecast area this afternoon as the cold front continues to progress to the east. Downsloping northwest winds may help scatter out some of the lower clouds later this afternoon and evening, with GRB, ATW, and MTW expected to lift to VFR within the next few hours. BKN MVFR cigs will likely stick around in/near RHI for the majority of the TAF period, though windows for improvement to VFR will be possible. Winds have already shifted to the west/northwest as of this afternoon, with the east-central sites expected to shift within the next hour or two. Gusts between 20 and 25 knots will be possible through this afternoon, before winds subside this evening and overnight with the loss of daytime mixing. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Goodin  496 FXUS61 KPHI 191833 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 233 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All of the Heat Advisory now in effect through 8 PM Wednesday. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible through early this evening mainly north/west of I-95. Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. 2. A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. 3. Significantly cooler temperatures and showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will remain in place through tonight before it starts to flatten on its northwest side during Wednesday. This along with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic will continue to drive a southwesterly flow of early season (anomalous) heat across our area through Wednesday. Temperatures peak in the 90s for many areas again this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. While the surface dew points will mix out some during peak heating this afternoon due to the drier ground and boundary layer, this stretch of early season heat, with additional record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. The Heat Advisory remains in place across much of the region, where the heat index criteria starts at 100F (the urban I-95 corridor criteria starts at 96F through June). While some areas will probably fall a little short, the potential for greater impacts (lack of acclimation) continues to drive our decision. Where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore continued to not include the immediate coastal zones in the Heat Advisory. Peak heat indices will be near 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east during Wednesday as a strong cold front starts to arrive. Despite it being a little cooler from Berks County, the Lehigh Valley into northern New Jersey Wednesday, it will be another day of hot and humid conditions. Given the consecutive stretch of this early season heat, opted to continue the current Heat Advisory through 8 PM Wednesday but extended the far north and west segment (also through 8 PM Wednesday). High temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how quickly cloud cover arrives along with showers and some thunderstorms, especially north and west of I-95. Either way, we will have a high launching pad once again for temperatures to start Wednesday and it will still be rather hot. This afternoon and into this evening will mainly precipitation-free, however an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly north and west of I-95 given the amount of heat and instability combined with a thermal trough nearby. This would most likely be terrain induced or isolated activity arriving from the west. Given steep low-level lapse rates, dry boundary layer (high DCAPE) but rather weak forcing, any convection should be short-lived and pulse variety with locally gusty winds (downbursts) possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will settle across our area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night before stalling near Delmarva into Thursday. Showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, and there looks to be a zone of higher instability across our central and southern zones Wednesday afternoon. It is in these areas where convection may try to organize a bit more as it develops eastward and encounters plenty of instability. The deep-layer shear is on the marginal side (strongest shear to our northwest) as are the mid level lapse rates, however a hot boundary layer will result in steep low-level lapse rates. The combination of the steep low-level lapse rates and any stronger convective cores, locally strong to damaging winds (downbursts) will be possible. Due to the lower shear convection may struggle to organize, however given the hot air mass in place some linear or small clustering could develop from about the Philadelphia metro on south and eastward late in the afternoon and evening. The coverage of stronger convection is of lower confidence, however given the lower shear values the severe thunderstorm risk looks isolated. General rainfall totals are 0.10- 0.50 inches, however given precipitable water values of 1.5-2.0 inches, localized higher amounts are quite possible with any stronger showers or thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms should end by late Wednesday evening, with some showers lingering in the wake of the cold front. KEY MESSAGE 3...Significantly cooler temperatures and showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. A cold front is forecast to settle and then stall to our south Thursday and into the holiday weekend. Some ripples of energy ride along and north of it and this looks to bring some rounds of showers to our region. A more organized surface low well to our west may provide an increase in showers or a period of rain later Friday and Saturday. The precipitation may become enhanced some as surface high pressure to our northeast wedges southwestward into our area creating some cool air damming. This will all result in much cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday, then some warming should take place Sunday and into Memorial Day. The pattern looks active though and therefore some additional showers are quite possible right into Memorial Day. While not great timing, our region needs rain as a long-term drought continues. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. This afternoon...VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out toward evening mainly north and west of KPHL. Southwesterly winds 8-12 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence regarding shower/thunderstorm occurrence. Tonight...VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...VFR overall with increasing clouds during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms arrive later in the afternoon and evening with areas of sub-VFR conditions. Locally gusty winds possible with a stronger thunderstorm. Southwest winds increasing to 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence on timing details. Outlook... Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions with some showers. Friday through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions with showers at times, especially late Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will be gusty, to 20 knots, through Wednesday, however a hot air mass over the chilly ocean water is resulting in a very strong inversion just about the surface. This is limiting the vertical mixing. While seas in the southerly flow could build to 5 feet through Wednesday, it is very marginal and therefore the Small Craft Advisory was cancelled. There is the potential for isolated gusty thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday evening. Outlook... Thursday...The conditions areanticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Friday and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions should occur. Sunday...Seas may linger around 5 feet, otherwise the conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Rip Currents... This afternoon, south to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 8 seconds. As a result there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches. On Wednesday, south to southwest winds should be similar to today. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. Will continue to note that while surface temperatures inland will be in the 90s this afternoon and again on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Some record breaking temperatures are forecast through Wednesday. High temperatures today and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low TemperaturesMay 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ060>062-070-071- 101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ007>010-012-013- 015-017>020-027. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>021- 026-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorse AVIATION...Gorse MARINE...AKL/Gorse  355 FXUS63 KDTX 191832 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 232 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the eastern two thirds of the CWA until 7 PM - Dry and cool Wednesday through Friday morning. - Rain returns by Friday evening and continues into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Pressure fields clearly show the prefrontal trough tracking through western sections of the CWA. This trough will serve as the focus for continued convection. Southwest gradient winds have been gusting 30 to 40 mph this afternoon, indicative of some decent wind fields. With temperatures reaching the mid-80s and dew points in the mid-to- upper 60s, MLCAPEs have reached 1500+ J/kg south of M-59. Per latest SPC mesoscale analysis and DTW ACARS data, the CIN/cap has eroded completely. Thus, further shower and thunderstorm development is expected through the rest of the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the eastern two-thirds of the CWA until 7 PM, but there is a good chance it may be canceled earlier. Localized/scattered damaging wind gusts should be the dominant hazard, given the mainly unidirectional low-level flow and good downdraft capes. However, because of the earlier start to activity and weak convergence along the prefrontal trough, it may be tough to sustain updrafts to support organized severe storms (barring any interactions with outflow boundaries). The actual cold front still needs to move through during the evening hours, and additional storms will be possible with any leftover instability. However, expect this prefrontal activity to deplete much of the fuel for the main front. Upper-level confluent flow and sprawling high pressure (1032 MB) will be in place tomorrow through Friday morning over the Great Lakes region, supporting dry and cool weather. Rain showers will return by Friday evening, however. Longwave troughing over the Rockies will capture and send a subtropical shortwave and moisture-laden warm front into southern Lower Michigan by Friday night. 850 MB dew points are progged to reach into the lower teens (Celsius) on Saturday. EPS probabilities for 24-hour rainfall exceeding half an inch are in the 60-70 percent range for the bulk of southeast Michigan. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remain in place into this evening as southwest winds gust around 25 knots along the land/marine interface. The development of strong to severe thunderstorms is increasingly likely this afternoon into the evening, favored across southern Lake Huron and locations south. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 7PM EDT. Wind gusts aoa 45 knots will be the primary hazard for severe weather development. Passage of the cold front will end the severe weather threat, veering winds from the southwest to northwest through the evening. High pressure builds behind the front, bringing lighter winds through the midweek period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 AVIATION... Another hot and humid day (by mid-May standards) lends potential for diurnal convection this afternoon and early evening. To the west of the terminals, initial updrafts are testing what little remains of the capping inversion layer, characterized by shallow updrafts and limited glaciation/lightning. Meanwhile, sufficient daytime insolation should lead to surface-based instability within the next couple of hours marking an expansion in convective coverage across some of the terminals. Confidence is highest from PTK south, but uncertainty in overall coverage/intensity of thunderstorms remains. FNT will be right on the edge of the pre-frontal troughing so opted for a VCTS mention as opposed to a TEMPO for thunder the rest of the PM hours. Visibilities will drop to IFR in the heaviest downpours. Non-convective gusts have stayed elevated given the ambient wind fields, but expect enhancements within water-loaded downdrafts. Nocturnal stabilization emerges overnight as gusts drop-off, and gradient winds gradually veer toward the north throughout the overnight hours. Post-frontal northerly flow draws a plume of low- level moisture through Southeast Michigan late tonight into Wednesday morning favoring MVFR ceilings. D21/DTW Convection...Window for scattered convection is focused between 20Z and 23Z this afternoon/evening, although initial storms could drift eastward a bit sooner. Storm motion will be southwest to northeast around 40 kt while the corridors of storms migrate west to east. IFR visibility reductions possible in heaviest downpours. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for thunderstorms 20-23Z today. * Medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through this evening, then high early Wednesday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ361>363- 462>464. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......SF AVIATION.....KGK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  449 FXUS65 KGJT 191832 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1232 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures will impact the lower basins of northwest Colorado tomorrow morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect. - Temperatures will start to warm today onward, reaching above normal temperatures by Sunday. - Precipitation is periodically possible through the week, mostly over the higher terrain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 The ongoing active pattern shifts to ridging and high pressure this weekend. The weather will generally be dry and quiet as this transition occurs, with the exception of over the central and southern mountains tonight through tomorrow afternoon, and across the very northern part of our CWA Thursday. Tonight through tomorrow afternoon rain and snow is possible in the central and southern mountains thanks to some lingering moisture and energy from a shortwave trough. Warming temperatures and limited moisture will keep any snow accumulations very minimal, and only at the highest elevations. On Thursday another trough propagates across the area, bringing lift and weak moisture advection to the northern half of our CWA. Some deterministic models are suggesting a slightly more southerly track for this trough, which would bring precipitation chances south of I-70, but the current forecast keeps rain and high elevation snow chances primarily in the more northern areas. After Thursday pieces of energy and moisture in the flow may support some terrain based afternoon convection each day. Tonight and tomorrow morning the potential for below freezing low temperatures persists in northwest Colorado. As such, Freeze Warnings remain in effect for overnight tonight. Today's high temperatures will be well below normal, but the upcoming pattern shift will raise high temperatures to above normal by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Moisture trapped in the higher elevation valleys has kept low stratus in place through midday. For KEGE and KASE, this stratus isn't likely to lift above ILS breakpoints through the next 24 hours. For other terminals, stratus will lift in the next 1-3 hours, if it hasn't already, and will remain as mid to high level clouds through 06z. After this point, low stratus is expected to redevelop across the area, with some locations dropping below breakpoints, at least periodically. Southwesterly afternoon winds will gust to around 20 knots before becoming light and terrain driven after 03z. VFR conditions will prevail, but drops to MVFR under low ceilings will be possible, mainly after 00z this evening. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  623 FXUS63 KPAH 191835 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 135 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Quad State over the next 24 hours. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern. - A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tomorrow morning for portions of the region. Swaths of 1 to 2" are anticipated, along with the potential for localized amounts in excess of 3". Adjustments to the watch location may be needed with time. - After a relative lull in rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday, an unsettled pattern is shaping up Friday through the holiday weekend and potentially beyond. There is a high probability (80-95% chance) of most of the region observing at least 2" of rain through next Tuesday, with even some potential at amounts in excess of 4" (20-40% chance). - Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees below normal tomorrow and Thursday (low to mid 70s). While some moderation is expected through the holiday weekend (upper 70s to lower 80s), we will still average slightly below normal through much of the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is draped from the Great Lakes southwestward across IL/MO and into eastern OK early this afternoon. South-southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary has led to an influx of low level moisture into our region with dewpoints into the lower 70s. The morning complex across Missouri fizzled out and has left behind quite a bit of clearing east of the Mississippi River. Some isolated convection has already popped up from the MO bootheel into western KY. Additional activity should continue to fire up through the afternoon aided by upwards of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep layer shear isn't very impressive though, struggling to reach even 25-30 kts of 0-6 km shear. Mid level lapse rates are generally 6C or below as well. However, low level lapse rates are rather steep combined with ample low level moisture that likely will be enough to support at least pulse severe storms this afternoon. Damaging winds appear to be the greatest concern, but can't rule out some hail with a few of the stronger cores. Majority of our region (except southern two tiers of counties) remain in a slight risk from SPC. A disturbance aloft will pivot across the lower Ohio Valley tonight which should provide additional forcing as the front makes passage to support more widespread showers and storms. There is some concern for training convection that may lead to swaths of heavy rainfall in excess of 2", and localized upwards of 3". Placement amongst the CAMs is varied, with some suggesting heaviest amounts further south across more of west KY. In coordination with neighboring offices, have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for portions of our region. For now have confined it to areas that received 1-2", localized 3", over the past 24 hours as these areas are more susceptible to additional heavy rain. FFG is generally only 1.5" per hour in the watch area. Will monitor trends though as adjustments to the watch are possible, with southward expansion seeming to be the most likely. Surface high pressure across the Great Lakes will filter in drier air into our region Wednesday night into Thursday as the frontal boundary sinks south of our cwa. Can't rule out some lingering activity in our south during this time though. Another shortwave across the Southern Plains will induce a surface low to develop and push the front back north into our area Thursday night into Friday. This will lead to additional waves of showers and storms spreading across the region. The overall pattern through the holiday weekend looks quite unsettled with daily chances continuing. Upper flow continues to be southwesterly helping to usher in ample low level moisture into our area. Temperatures will be held in check thanks to the clouds and precip around, but humidity levels will remain high as dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Guidance suggests the wet pattern looks to continue into next week as additional disturbances move through. LREF has an 80-95% chance at receiving at least 2" through next Tuesday, with a 25-40% chance at 4". The ECMWF and GFS both have an expensive area of 5+ inches over the next 9 days. There is a chance they are overdone a bit, and when in drought it's hard to get out, but the trends certainly are in favor of some beneficial rains through the end of the month. Just hopefully we don't get too much too quick, which is a distinct possibility, which could result in increasing flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered convection will continue to blossom across the region this afternoon, producing brief restrictions to vsby and cigs. Fairly widespread coverage of -SHRA is expected tonight into Wednesday morning, with embedded thunder aspect. Timing of -TSRA is a bit tricky, but for now kept mention primarily during the afternoon and again overnight. Cigs are expected to deteriorate later this evening and overnight, eventually becoming IFR for many areas and stay that way into Wednesday morning. Breezy south-southwest winds today will switch around to northerly tomorrow as the cold front makes passage. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ILZ083-085>094. MO...None. IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ014-018. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...SP  592 FXUS65 KBOU 191834 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1234 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near freezing temperatures and frost/freeze highlights for most of the plains through 8am. - Unsettled Tuesday through Friday with scattered to numerous showers and a few storms, most numerous in/near the Front Range. - Warming and drying trend for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 146 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered drizzle and light showers will continue throughout the overnight period, clearing by the late morning. We do still have some snow showers in the northern Front Range as well, that will likely last into the early morning. Temperatures as of 1:30AM are near freezing for the Palmer Divide and in the mid to upper 30s for much of the plains. Thick low level clouds will make it hard for temperatures to cool significantly, but the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory still look to be on track. The forecast for this work week looks unsettled and cooler than normal. An upper level trough is forecast to sit just off to our west through Thursday. Upper level disturbances will move through the flow aloft, providing some ascent. Additionally we'll be sitting under the right entrance region of the jet today and Wednesday, providing another source of lift for the area. With the upper level support and surface moisture, we'll have rain chances for much of the area with snow chances for the higher mountains elevations. We'll see higher moisture for Wednesday, which will allow for slightly better coverage of showers, higher precip amounts, and potentially some instability for thunderstorms. Surface return flow on Thursday will bring increased moisture, with dewpoints increasing into the 40s and 50s for the afternoon. Higher moisture and increased instability will combine with strong low level lapse rates and decent shear to provide a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms across the plains Thursday afternoon and evening. A cold front is forecast to move into northern Colorado sometime late Thursday into early Friday. If that front ends up moving through more Thursday evening rather than Friday morning, it could act as a trigger for storms, potentially increasing storm coverage. The upper trough, which is a major player in our rain chances for the week, is finally forecast to move over the area and to the east overnight Thursday through Friday morning. However, models are showing a secondary weaker trough following the original, which could bring us another day of scattered showers for Friday. Temperatures will remain below normal for Friday thanks to the front and cloudy conditions. Storms will be less likely for Friday compared to Thursday due to the more stable airmass following the overnight front. Upper level ridging begins to build over the area Saturday into early next week, allowing temperatures to rise back above normal by late this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Will keep ceilings in the BKN-OVC020-040 range this afternoon and in the BKN-OVC010-025 range tonight. Will keep a TEMPO or PROB30 group in for -SHRA this afternoon and tonight. Visibilities should stay at P6SM. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...66  729 FXUS61 KBGM 191837 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 237 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The threat for severe thunderstorms for today continues to diminish. That being said, still cannot rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm late this afternoon or this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid conditions continues this afternoon, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible through this evening. 2) Following the passage of a cold front tonight and Wednesday morning, much cooler temperatures will return for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 3) Memorial Day weekend continues to look showery and cool, with perhaps slightly drier conditions and warmer temperatures by Memorial Day itself. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cloud cover from this morning has lingered into this afternoon. As a result, instability is largely lacking. A few isolated showers have developed, but due to this limited instability and lack of forcing, these have not been able to develop into thunderstorms up to this point (as of 2:15PM). A few pulse thunderstorms still could develop at any point this afternoon or early evening, but the overall threat for severe thunderstorms continues to diminish. A more organized line of showers and thunderstorms will likely track eastward through Western NY this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of those thunderstorms could be strong to severe, but indications point to this line dissipating as it approaches Central NY and Northeast PA with the loss of daytime heating and the lack of elevated instability to maintain convection overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... As a cold front pushes eastward through the area on Wednesday, much cooler and drier air will filter in behind it. Dew points will fall from the lower 60s around dawn to the 40s for most of the area by the late afternoon. Temperatures will also gradually drop, or remain steady in the 60s; at least for Central NY. Farther to the south and east (Wyoming Valley-Poconos- Catskills), warmer air may linger longer as the cold front likely doesn't pass through those areas until the afternoon on Wednesday. This also means that some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for those areas in the afternoon, but right now it appears any threat for severe thunderstorms should be east of the area/closer to the coast. Following the passage of the cold front, colder air will remain in place through the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the 60s and overnight lows mainly in the 40s. KEY MESSAGE 3... Memorial Day weekend unfortunately continues to look unsettled with showers and cool weather, as moisture advects into the region from the south and an upper level low moving in from the west. The most widespread showers will be on Saturday, which will also be the coolest day with highs only in the 50s for most of the area. Scattered showers will likely linger through at least Sunday. Depending on how quickly the above mentioned upper level low exits the area to the east, Monday/Memorial Day could either be another day of scattered showers, or perhaps a mainly dry day. Either way, Memorial Day should feature a return to near-normal temperatures with highs mainly in the 70s, after several below normal days. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR will continue until late tonight. Widely scattered showers, and potentially a thunderstorm, could affect the airports along the NY border and over NEPA until early evening...but confidence in occurrence and timing is exceptionally low to include in the terminal forecast. Did hint at the possibility of SHRA nearby to KBGM and KAVP where immediate convection is moving through the area. TCF forecast is also not indicatingTSRA at this time. A cold front will approach on Wednesday morning with guidance now suggesting higher confidence in restrictive MVFR ceilings for a period of time around 12Z along with scattered showers. VFR is then expected to return by 18Z. Gusty West winds to 25 KTS this afternoon will abate tonight and then increase again from the NW on Wednesday. Outlook: Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Sunday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJG AVIATION...JAB  651 FXUS61 KBOX 191835 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 235 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes were made to this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering thunderstorm activity quickly winds down with the loss of daytime heating. Expecting very warm minimum temps tonight with lows in the 60s and low to mid 70s in more urban areas. - Final day of record warmth Wednesday with highs in the 90s away from the immediate coast. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms by the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and small hail. - Cooler temperatures through Memorial Day Weekend. Unsettled weather returns for the weekend with periods of rain possible, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Lingering thunderstorm activity quickly winds down with the loss of daytime heating. Expecting very warm minimum temps tonight with lows in the 60s and low to mid 70s in more urban areas. Showers and storms are expected to develop across western portions of our CWA between 3 and 5pm and then quickly move east. Main but guidance is showing the potential for storms to initiate over the Southern Adirondacks and Green Mountains and then gradually coalesce into a more organized line or cluster that generally moves west to east through the afternoon. Main threats with any organized storms will be strong to damaging straight-line winds given drier air in the low to mid-levels resulting in inverted-V soundings. Somewhat notably, the 12z ALB and OKX soundings featured a modified EML between 700 and 500mb with mid level lapse rates between 6.5 and 7.5 C/km. Thankfully RAP mesoanalysis indicates limited bulk shear around 25 kt this afternoon so we're not looking at a widespread severe weather episode. Still, with CAPE values between 1200 and 1500 J/kg, there could be a severe storm or two north of the Mass Pike. Activity quickly wanes with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Bigger story tonight will be continued heat in humidly. Overnight lows remain in the upper 60s for much of the region and closer to the lower and even middle 70s across urban areas. These temperatures, paired with dewpoints in the 60s will keep apparent temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s even well into the night. Those without adequate access to cooling and air conditioning are at greatest risk with the elevated overnight lows. There won't be much in the way of relief from winds as the boundary layer decouples and winds calm to less than 5 mph for much of the CWA. KEY MESSAGE 2... Final day of record warmth Wednesday with highs in the 90s away from the immediate coast. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms by the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and small hail. Upper level ridge begins to break down on Wednesday ahead of an approaching trough. Despite the changes to the upper pattern, 850 temps will remain above +15C S of the Mass Pike and slightly cooler to the N. Guidance has somewhat increased the speed of the cold front resulting in increased cloud cover over much of northern Massachusetts where temperatures have trended a few degrees cooler. Even in these areas, still think that valley locations see highs in the low 90s with downsloping from west winds. Further south, there is higher confidence in more widespread readings in the low to mid 90s away from the water. Greatest chance will be in the HFD PVD and BOS urban corridor. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s (discounting the outlier NAM) will make it feel humid but not tropical by any means. An approaching cold front provides a much more robust lifting mechanism on Wednesday. With temperatures quickly warming into the 90s, expecting surface CAPE values to rise to 1000-1500 J/kg. 0-6km bulkshear values, while fine (25-30 kts), are less favorable for organized severe weather than they are further north where the stronger mid level flow resides. So, the ingredients are there for some strong to severe storms. Wednesday the cold front will serve as a better lifting mechanism, timed coincident with peak diurnal heating so would expect more coverage of storms and any storms that do form have the chance to produce strong to damaging winds primarily given inverted-v soundings. Greatest threat for any severe weather will likely be S of the Mass Pike where higher instability exists. KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. High pressure builds and mid-level ridging building in behind Wednesday's system bringing near-seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. For Memorial Day weekend there is a signal for the pattern to become more unsettled with a few disturbances moving through bringing periods of rain. However, there is still a sufficient amount uncertainty in the details of the track and timing of the waves which will influence rain chances, timing, and amounts this holiday weekend. Across deterministic guidance, there is plenty of spread in the track and details of a system that moves in from the Ohio Valley. This has led to a range of scenarios from a drier weekend with seasonable temperatures to a weekend with periods of rain and cooler temperatures. Whats adds to the uncertainty is the lack of consistency of models from run to run as well. From a probabilistic view, ensemble means are keying in on moderate probabilities for rain across their respective members at this time, so the risk is there for periods of rain over the weekend into the holiday. We'll have to keep monitoring as well get closer and model guidance comes into better agreement. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: This Afternoon and Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Sct'd TSRA possible by the afternoon with continued confidence in impacts between 21 and 00z from BOS, BED, BDL, and ORH. S-SW wind 10 to 15 kt gusts to 25 kt through the afternoon and evening. VFR overnight, with MVFR ceilings across the Cape and Islands. Possible IFR at ACK with areas of fog. Gusts drop off for terminals not on the Cape and Islands after 00z tonight. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. Scattered TSRA along and ahead of a cold front in the afternoon and evening. S-SW wind 8-10kt with gusts 20-25 kts turning NW behind the cold front between 15-00Z. Strong gusts possible in any thunderstorms. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday through Friday: VFR. Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday: High confidence. Small craft advisories remain in effect through 06z Thurs. SW winds of 15-25 kt continues this afternoon and overnight Seas will also be building to around 4-6 ft, with some 7 footers possible tonight over the southern waters. Mainly dry weather prevails through tonight with a few showers or thunderstorms possible for the northern waters., Some fog may persist and expand across the southern waters tonight on increasing southwest winds. Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Tue May 19... BOS 90/2017 BDL 94/1962 PVD 91/2017 ORH 92/1962 Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ003-004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ003>007-010>019- 026. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ006-007- 013>019. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>004. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mensch/FT AVIATION...Hrencecin/FT MARINE...FT CLIMATE...BW/Hrencecin  727 FXUS61 KPHI 191837 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 237 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All of the Heat Advisory now in effect through 8 PM Wednesday. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible through early this evening mainly north/west of I-95. Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. 2. A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. 3. Significantly cooler temperatures and showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will remain in place through tonight before it starts to flatten on its northwest side during Wednesday. This along with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic will continue to drive a southwesterly flow of early season (anomalous) heat across our area through Wednesday. Temperatures peak in the 90s for many areas again this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. While the surface dew points will mix out some during peak heating this afternoon due to the drier ground and boundary layer, this stretch of early season heat, with additional record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. The Heat Advisory remains in place across much of the region, where the heat index criteria starts at 100F (the urban I-95 corridor criteria starts at 96F through June). While some areas will probably fall a little short, the potential for greater impacts (lack of acclimation) continues to drive our decision. Where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore continued to not include the immediate coastal zones in the Heat Advisory. Peak heat indices will be near 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east during Wednesday as a strong cold front starts to arrive. Despite it being a little cooler from Berks County, the Lehigh Valley into northern New Jersey Wednesday, it will be another day of hot and humid conditions. Given the consecutive stretch of this early season heat, opted to continue the current Heat Advisory through 8 PM Wednesday but extended the far north and west segment (also through 8 PM Wednesday). High temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how quickly cloud cover arrives along with showers and some thunderstorms, especially north and west of I-95. Either way, we will have a high launching pad once again for temperatures to start Wednesday and it will still be rather hot. This afternoon and into this evening will mainly precipitation-free, however an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly north and west of I-95 given the amount of heat and instability combined with a thermal trough nearby. This would most likely be terrain induced or isolated activity arriving from the west. Given steep low-level lapse rates, dry boundary layer (high DCAPE) but rather weak forcing, any convection should be short-lived and pulse variety with locally gusty winds (downbursts) possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will settle across our area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night before stalling near Delmarva into Thursday. Showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, and there looks to be a zone of higher instability across our central and southern zones Wednesday afternoon. It is in these areas where convection may try to organize a bit more as it develops eastward and encounters plenty of instability. The deep-layer shear is on the marginal side (strongest shear to our northwest) as are the mid level lapse rates, however a hot boundary layer will result in steep low-level lapse rates. The combination of the steep low-level lapse rates and any stronger convective cores, locally strong to damaging winds (downbursts) will be possible. Due to the lower shear convection may struggle to organize, however given the hot air mass in place some linear or small clustering could develop from about the Philadelphia metro on south and eastward late in the afternoon and evening. The coverage of stronger convection is of lower confidence, however given the lower shear values the severe thunderstorm risk looks isolated. General rainfall totals are 0.10- 0.50 inches, however given precipitable water values of 1.5-2.0 inches, localized higher amounts are quite possible with any stronger showers or thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms should end by late Wednesday evening, with some showers lingering in the wake of the cold front. KEY MESSAGE 3...Significantly cooler temperatures and showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. A cold front is forecast to settle and then stall to our south Thursday and into the holiday weekend. Some ripples of energy ride along and north of it and this looks to bring some rounds of showers to our region. A more organized surface low well to our west may provide an increase in showers or a period of rain later Friday and Saturday. The precipitation may become enhanced some as surface high pressure to our northeast wedges southwestward into our area creating some cool air damming. This will all result in much cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday, then some warming should take place Sunday and into Memorial Day. The pattern looks active though and therefore some additional showers are quite possible right into Memorial Day. While not great timing, our region needs rain as a long-term drought continues. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. This afternoon...VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out toward evening mainly north and west of KPHL. Southwesterly winds 8-12 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence regarding shower/thunderstorm occurrence. Tonight...VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...VFR overall with increasing clouds during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms arrive later in the afternoon and evening with areas of sub-VFR conditions. Locally gusty winds possible with a stronger thunderstorm. Southwest winds increasing to 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence on timing details. Outlook... Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions with some showers. Friday through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions with showers at times, especially late Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will be gusty, to 20 knots, through Wednesday, however a hot air mass over the chilly ocean water is resulting in a very strong inversion just about the surface. This is limiting the vertical mixing. While seas in the southerly flow could build to 5 feet through Wednesday, it is very marginal and therefore the Small Craft Advisory was cancelled. There is the potential for isolated gusty thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday evening. Outlook... Thursday...The conditions areanticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Friday and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions should occur. Sunday...Seas may linger around 5 feet, otherwise the conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Rip Currents... This afternoon, south to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 8 seconds. As a result there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches. On Wednesday, south to southwest winds should be similar to today. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. Will continue to note that while surface temperatures inland will be in the 90s this afternoon and again on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Some record breaking temperatures are forecast through Wednesday. High temperatures today and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low TemperaturesMay 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ060>062-070-071- 101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ007>010-012-013- 015-017>020-027. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>021- 026-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorse AVIATION...Gorse MARINE...AKL/Gorse  645 FXUS65 KRIW 191835 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1235 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions will be dry and temperatures rebound today and Wednesday, but daytime highs remain well below normal. The arrival of another weather system Thursday cools temperatures a few degrees and provides another round of precipitation. - Widespread precipitation is expected Thursday, with upslope areas like Cody and Lander having the best chances for snow accumulation during the day. - Early indications point to a warm and dry Memorial Day holiday weekend with widespread 75 to 85 degree daytime highs. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Snow from yesterday is clear on satellite today, with a large portion of central and southern areas white. Melting will occur through the next couple days as daytime highs slowly increase. However, temperatures do remain on the cool side the next few days. As a result, Freeze Warnings are once again in effect for portions of the area that have seen an early start to the growing season. Lows tonight should be in the upper-20s to low-30s east of the Divide, where the warnings currently are. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas of clouds still linger over central and southern portions of the CWA this morning, as expected. Low clouds have developed in the Upper Green River Basin, in the wake of the residual snow that fell through Monday evening. Low clouds/fog is also expected to develop near Pathfinder Reservoir in southern Natrona County as well as far eastern Sweetwater County near Wamsutter and Creston Junction. These clouds are expected to last through mid-morning. Travelers on I-80 and US-189/191 should exercise caution due to the reduced visibility. Otherwise, clouds will continue to scatter out through the rest of the morning with partly cloudy skies by 18Z. There is a 20-30% chance for fog/low clouds to develop in the Wind River Basin and areas near Casper. Cumulus clouds will begin to develop over the western mountains after 18Z, with isolated virga showers possible over northern portions of Yellowstone NP, the Cody Foothills, Hoback Junction and Lander/Fort Washakie. Temperatures will be about 10 to 20 degrees below normal today, with sub-freezing temperatures expected again tonight for most areas except northern portions of the Bighorn Basin. The warming trend continues Wednesday, but temperatures stay below normal for central and southern portions of the CWA. Conditions will be dry for most areas, with showers possible over far northern portions irt the next storm system approaching the Cowboy State from the north. Precipitation chances will be confined to northwestern portions Wednesday night, with snow levels between 7000 and 8000 ft, as the storm drops southward. The associated cold front will drop southward over the CWA through the overnight hours, extending from Buffalo to Kemmerer by sunrise Thursday morning. The front will then slowly push through Natrona and Sweetwater counties through the rest of the day. Most of the precipitation with this storm will occur along and behind of the front, being widespread across the CWA through the day Thursday. Rain could change over to snow along and north of a Meeteetse-to-Lovell line after 15Z, as the cold core from the storm pushes into the Bighorn Basin. The challenge will be if snowfall rates will be heavy enough to overcome the high May sun angle. Otherwise, any snow is likely to stay in grassy areas through the day. There could be a similar change over later in the afternoon at Lander. Both of these locations (mainly Cody and Lander) will have a good upslope component with north- northeast winds. There could be a 3 to 5 hour window for snow accumulation between 23Z and 04Z (5pm to 10pm), as the sun begins to wane in the evening. A leeside low will develop over the Black Hills around this time, generating a line of showers and thunderstorms over western portions of SD and NE. Drier air will quickly push in over western portions of the CWA as the storm moves over the aforementioned areas through the rest of the night into Friday morning. Precipitation will quickly end from west to east after 03Z as a result of the storm becoming better organized over SD/NE. However, precipitation looks to linger over Johnson and Natrona counties through the rest of the night. Rain or a rain/snow mix is likely at this time, with snow levels as low as 6000 ft. Initial snowfall amounts around 6 inches are forecasted over the Absaroka and Wind River Mountains and 6 to 10 inches over the northern half of the Bighorns. Temperatures rebound more quickly on Friday, staying at or slightly below normal as the storm quickly exits over the Plains. A pleasant holiday weekend is shaping up, with highs in the 70s and 80s by Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1119 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Dry and VFR flight conditions are forecast through 18Z Wednesday. Diurnal mid-level clouds will increase in coverage through the afternoon hours. Mid-level cloud cover decreases after sunset and increases in coverage again Wednesday morning. These clouds will cause frequent mountain top obscurations. There is a 10% chance of a light rain shower around KCOD and KLND between 20Z and 02Z, with no impacts expected. However, the most likely scenario is that it will not reach the ground and remain as virga. Winds largely remain 10 kts or less at most terminals. KCPR and KRIW could see winds between 10 kts and 15 kts. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ005-006-011-016>020. && $$ UPDATE...Wittmann DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...Gerhardt  746 FXUS62 KRAH 191837 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 237 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Made a downward adjustment to high temperatures on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 235 PM Tuesday... 1) Hot and dry through Wednesday. 2) Rain chances return Thursday, with chances persisting into early next week. Low confidence in high temps Thursday and especially Friday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 235 PM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and dry through Wednesday. Surface high pressure is located off the SE coast with mid-level ridging over the region. This is allowing for the extended period of southerly winds bringing hot temperatures and mainly dry conditions to continue through Wednesday. This afternoon, temperatures are still expected to rise generally into the mid 90s. Low level thicknesses are similar tomorrow afternoon, suggesting that highs should rise into the mid 90s again. Lows both nights also look to only drop into the mid-to-upper 60s, which will provide little relief from the heat. Thus, the HeatRisk both days is mostly Moderate (level 2 of 4), with a few isolated patches of Major (3 of 4). This means that heat may effect those without access to cooling and hydration, especially those who are sensitive to heat. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances return Thursday, with chances persisting into early next week. Low confidence in high temps Thursday and especially Friday. Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge may once again strengthen and lift newd across the region Thu night through Sat, with several s/w disturbances tracking across the Plains and MS Valley. A s/w will clip the region over the weekend, with high pressure strengthening again off the Southeast US coast early next week. At the surface, cold front approaching from the north will slide southward across central NC Thu aft/eve. A CAD air mass should set up through Fri/Fri night as high pressure tracking across the Northeast US ridges swd into the area and warm, moist air overruns the cool, stable boundary layer resulting in overcast skies and rain. Still expect the wedge to erode Sat/Sat night, with the front lifting nnwwd back across the area. However, the spread in available guidance increases beyond from Sat onward, with significant differences and forecast implications for central NC. The EC erodes the wedge on by Sat night, while the GFS keeps it in place into Mon. Precipitation: The best chances for showers/storms will be Thu along and ahead of the backdoor cold front as it moves into and across the area. In the wake of the front, warm air advecting in above the cooler, stable boundary layer could result in some light rain through at least Fri/Fri night over central NC. Regardless of what happens with the wedge, expect daily chances for precipitation Sat- Mon, with temperatures and instability the primary areas of uncertainty. Where/when the wedge erodes and a warm front lifts nwd across the area, there will be the chance for additional diurnally driven convection on the warm side of the boundary, while rain will be favored north of it. Temperatures: Highs Thu will be impacted by the timing of the front and the convection ahead/along it. For now, expect highs ranging from mid 80s north to low 90s south. There is a large bust potential wrt highs on Fri given the potential for CAD to briefly set up and possible continued rain into it. For now have highs ranging from upper 60s north to low/mid 80s south, but with below average confidence. Lows Thu and Fri nights expected to range from mid 50s north to mid 60s south. Generally expect temperatures to moderate back to near/slightly above normal over the weekend and early next week, but that will depend on when the wedge erodes. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 158 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions are generally expected at the TAF sites over the 24 hour TAF period. An exception to this will be if fog is able to move far enough inland. A similar airmass will be in place tonight, which should allow for the formation of fog tonight in a similar location as this previous morning. Thus, kept the tempo for sub-VFR visibilities and potentially low ceilings at FAY. Otherwise, this afternoon expect southerly to southwesterly winds at around 8-12 kts, with a few gusts up to 18 kts possible and mostly clear skies. Outlook: Flight restrictions will return on Thursday as a cold front brings the next chance for showers and embedded storms along with gusty winds to the region. Sub-VFR ceilings also look to persist into Friday in the Triad and potentially RDU as a CAD regime looks to set up over the region. Daily shower/storm chances will also be possible through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022 May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 May 23: KFAY: 72/2011 May 24: KGSO: 69/2019 KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000 May 25: KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10/Helock AVIATION...Helock CLIMATE...RAH  927 FXUS65 KVEF 191841 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1141 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A warming trend will result in above normal temperatures for the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. * Much uncertainty exists into next week as a series of Western U.S. storm systems interact with one another. && .DISCUSSION... Another day of unseasonably mild temperatures is on deck in the wake of Sunday's powerful storm system and cold front. Lingering north/northwest flow will continue to promote breezy conditions on area lakes, especially across the Colorado River Valley the remainder of today and again tomorrow. This may promote choppy conditions for boaters. Winds should gradually improve from Thursday into the weekend. Elsewhere, the main concern will be rising temperatures from the latter half of the week into the weekend. Temperatures should climb to near normal by tomorrow, then increase to around 5-10 degrees above normal from Thursday through the upcoming holiday weekend. This will result in several days of Moderate Heat Risk namely across Death Valley and the Colorado River Valley region. While this is not the highest category of Heat Risk, it still represents a threat, especially for those not acclimated to desert weather conditions, and with the abundance of outdoor recreation expected over the coming weekend. Folks are urged to follow heat safety recommendations if planning on being outdoors this weekend. As we enter next week, ensembles paint a very uncertain picture as to exactly how the upper air pattern will evolve. There is relatively high confidence in the presence of an upper trough somewhere across the Pacific Northwest and a weaker upper low off the California Coast. However, there remains considerable disagreement on the exact placement and intensity of these features, which is very relevant on how they may interact with one another and impact local weather. While confidence is moderate in the continuation of warm to hot conditions, there is also a low probability of increasing winds and potentially some precipitation, mainly over the higher terrain. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty northeasterly winds are expected through mid- to late afternoon, with gusts to 20-25KT early in the forecast period decreasing to 15-18KT. As winds and gusts diminish through late afternoon, gusts will become more intermittent, with some variability in wind direction expected between 020-060 true. After sunset winds back to the northwest, with speeds around 5-10KT through Tuesday morning. Winds will veer to the northeast Tuesday mid to late morning, with speeds expected to remain under 10KT thereafter. VFR conditions prevail. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty northerly to northeasterly winds will continue through this afternoon across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona, with gusts to 20-25KT expected to gradually decrease to 15-20KT through late afternoon. Terrain-enhanced winds along the Lower Colorado River Valley from KIFP to KEED will gust to around 30KT through sunset, diminishing thereafter. Elsewhere, winds will generally follow typical daily directional patterns, with speeds around 8-10KT. Tonight, winds areawide will drop to 5-10KT, with gusty northerly winds returning late in the period at KIFP and KEED, with gusts expected to top out around 25KT. VFR conditions prevail areawide, with a few bands of high clouds around 25kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Austin AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  970 FXUS61 KBTV 191842 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 242 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 1045 AM EDT Tuesday... Light showers are starting to develop. No lightning has been observed at this time. A few rounds of thunderstorms will be possible, with a stronger storm or two capable of gusty winds. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 238 PM EDT Tuesday... 1. Warm and humid weather will promote a few strong storms before a cold front drives cool weather back south. 2. A period of cool weather is expected the remainder of the week. 3. A pair of weak systems will drive rain chances late Saturday night into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 238 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: The latest thinking from the Storm Prediction Center is to reduce the likelihood of severe weather in the forecast. A marginal risk outlook (Level 1 of 5), is now forecast for today. A few strong storms may develop as a result of strong heating into the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. CAPE of about 1000-1500 J/kg will be possible, and there is also modest wind flow with 40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. Lapse rates are marginal, and there is not much of a lifting mechanism in place today. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be greatest in southern and eastern Vermont, with relatively little outside these regions during the afternoon. The main threat from any thunderstorm will be sending stronger winds aloft to the surface. Thunderstorm potential won't end with the sunset this evening. We're in the season of piece meal frontal boundaries now. The first piece arrives after sunset. Although surface instability will decrease, the radiation of heat and mid-level warming should produce a sharp inversion. Mid-level instability will increase along and ahead of the front that will also coincide with a subtle upper jet and vorticity max. Precipitation will expand northeast across the Adirondacks. However, it will struggle as terrain shadowing and dry air entrainment break up activity heading into Vermont. However, the front will not yet be through the region until Wednesday. So another warm, humid night it expected with upper 50s to upper 60s tonight. A theta E boundary will cross mid-morning, and cold produce some tiny, spot showers, and then the wind shift finally crosses in the afternoon, which could also produce a localized shower. Southern Vermont will still be in the 80s, but most of the region will be in the 70s behind the theta E boundary. If any activity can overcome strong mid-level drying in southern Vermont, then a shower or two could briefly produce a few flashes of lightning, but this isn't expressly noted in the current forecast. One last thing to note for Wednesday will be the breezy northwesterly flow behind the system as the dry air filters in. With afternoon mixing, it'll bring in 20-25 mph gusts and RHs sinking to 30-40%. This may be most relevant in south-central Vermont, which hasn't seen quite as much rain over the last 3-4 days. KEY MESSAGE 2: A rather strong batch of cold air will come in from the north, and it will linger for awhile as the 1030mb surface high is slow to move. Looks like we may be talking frost headlines based on present low temperatures as the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom enter the temperature-defined growing season. Min temperatures for Wednesday night and Thursday night feature low to mid 30s for these regions, and low to mid 40s for the rest of the area. Part of the reason why we'll observe such cool weather at night will come from the very dry air mass overhead. Even with afternoon temperatures in the 60s, minimum relative humidity values appear likely to drop significantly during the day. Thursday's cooler temperatures will likely keepvalues closer to 25-35%, but Friday looks especially dry around 20-30%. There'll be steady winds Thursday, and light and variable winds on Friday. Even as high pressure begins to depart, it lifts towards the Gulf of St. Lawrence rather than simply going off into the Atlantic. So colder north flow will trend to cool, maritime east-southeast flow. Conditions will be dry underneath this strong high. It'll be supremely pleasant weather through Saturday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 3: A weak, 1013mb low pressure will track towards the Great Lakes region, and it will struggle mightily against the now 1035mb surface high in the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is consistent on a warm front lifting northeast in association with the surface low but also decelerating and decaying. A sharp gradient in rainfall amounts is expected with steady rain setting up near or south of our forecast area and dry the farther northeast you get. Some guidance has the warm front and associated precipitation collapsing before it even reaches the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. The latest 12z GFS doesn't even allow the warm front to make it to our region of responsibility. Another area of low pressure will move towards James Bay, and it will come with a well-defined upper trough that will begin to acquire a negative tilt on. Yet another weak surface low will start developing near Long Island. This will set the stage for strong confluence while a moisture feed out of the Gulf and Atlantic are positioned nearby. The doubling up of these features appears to last for a very short time, and given that it's relatively small, any disconnect would disrupt precipitation efficiency. Regardless, this feature will be progressive. A few showers cold linger into next Tuesday as the backside of the upper trough makes it in during the morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Conditions are mainly VFR for the next several hours. Spotty showers and thunderstorms will be possibly, mainly at KRUT from 19z-21z, and then a separate batch is possible at KMSS, KSLK, and KPBG from about 03z-07z. Any shower or storm could briefly reduce visibility to 2-4SM for 10-30 minutes. Ceilings will mostly remain at or above 5000 ft agl with scattered cumulus. More appreciable drops in ceilings will be possible after 06z with ceilings trending towards 1500-4500 ft agl. Winds throughout the period will be southwesterly at 7-15 knots with intermittent gusts of 20-25 knots possible, mainly at KMSS. 2000 ft agl winds increase between about 04z and 12z, with west winds at 35-45 knots, and LLWS will be possible for almost every terminal. Flight conditions will generally improve after 12z Wednesday, but there could be some bouncing or pauses between several weak boundaries sliding southeast into Wednesday along with a shift to west or west-northwest winds. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 238 PM EDT Tuesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Sustained winds have been lacking much of the day, but have increased over the last couple hours. A few gusts have hovered just under the 25 knot criteria as well. Given the proximity to that threshold and cold water, the Lake Wind Advisory will remain up. Some stronger wind gusts will be possible on Lake Champlain around midnight following a boundary, and then again once winds shift from south or southwest to north later on Wednesday. Waves will likely range about 1-3 feet. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None.&& $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd/Haynes DISCUSSION...Haynes AVIATION...Haynes MARINE...Clay/Haynes  997 FXUS63 KSGF 191843 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 143 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to slowly move through the area this afternoon. Additional scattered showers/storms possible overnight. No severe weather expected. - Residual flooding from previous heavy rains will continue. Additional rainfall amounts up to one inch is possible south of Interstate 44. - Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows an upper level trough/jet streak over the Rockies with another more compact shortwave working through the area. An 850mb front was located from central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. The surface cold front was currently located just west of Springfield with temps in the 50s to around 60 behind it with lower to middle 60s ahead of the front. The airmass was becoming increasingly stable over the area with MU CAPE now less than 1000j/kg. However there was a corridor of slightly higher MU CAPE centered more along the 850mb front. The widespread area of showers and storms has now shifted to the areas east of Highway 65. Residual flooding continues across locations north of Springfield where heavy rainfall occurred. Rain Chances Through Wednesday and cooler temps: The afternoon batch of showers and isolated storms will continue to move east/southeast with a brief break/lull this evening. However, overnight (mainly after midnight) there is an increasing signal that light showers or perhaps an isolated storm will develop over the area along the corridor of the 850mb front. A low level jet and continued placement of the right entrance region of the upper level jet will also aid in the development of this scattered activity. Severe weather is not expected and rainfall amounts will likely remain light enough to limit any renewed flooding. Temperatures should slowly decrease into the 50s. Weak mid level ridging should allow for a decreasing trend in precip chances through the day. Northeast winds and mostly cloudy conditions should keep temps cool with most locations staying in the 60s. There could even be a few locations north of Springfield that struggle to even reach 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Additional Rain Chances Late Week and Weekend: Ensemble data shows a rather unsettled pattern Thursday onward. From a synoptic perspective, the pattern favors shortwave energy moving through the area every few days given the southwest flow aloft. One such wave looks to move into the area late Thursday into Friday. Precip chances have increased into the 60-80% range as a shield of showers and storms looks to move through the area from the southwest. Looking at instability, latest ensemble probs for CAPE greater than 500j/kg is highest on Friday. Latest probs for precip greater than 0.5in is around 60%. Therefore we will need to monitor the location of the heaviest rainfall. The WPC has highlighted portions of the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Additional shortwaves look to rotate through the area this weekend. Confidence is low on exact timing of each wave and subsequent hazards however rain chances are in the 30-50% range at times this weekend. A gradual warming trend should occur this weekend with the potential for highs to reach the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An area of showers and afew thunderstorms was moving through southern Missouri. The chance of thunderstorms will decrease through the afternoon however rain chances remain high. The chance of rain will also return overnight. A front is moving the area and has already moved into JLN. The front will move through SGF and BBG this afternoon and will switch the winds to the northwest. North to northwest winds will then continue through Wednesday. Behind the front, cloud ceilings drop quickly into IFR with some LIFR. Confidence is high that ceilings will drop below 1kft this afternoon, lasting through tonight. Ceilings may drop down to 500 ft at times and additional updates are likely. Lastly, visibilities may drop closer to 4-5 miles at times in the rain showers. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield  038 FXUS62 KFFC 191844 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 244 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue through with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Increased rain chances return tomorrow through the weekend, especially across northern and western Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Warm and Dry Today: Another pleasant weather afternoon across north and central Georgia with high temperatures climbing to the upper 80s to low 90s, and some fair weather cumulus clouds. A lingering dry airmass with PWAT values under 1" across the area will prevent the cumulus from having much vertical growth. Rain Chances Return Wednesday: Winds turn out of the southwest tonight into Wednesday, bringing moisture back into the region and leading to a return of rain chances. Skies will start off mostly clear, with cumulus building and becoming widespread during the afternoon as PWAT values climb to around 1.2-1.4" in west/northwest GA. This area will likely see isolated to scattered showers and storms developing during the late afternoon and evening as instability peaks. Elsewhere, instability and moisture will be too low to result in anything more than brief isolated showers. Any storms that develop across northwest GA will be garden-variety due to low shear (<20kts) and meager instability (<1000 J/kg), with brief gusty winds and lightning being the primary threats. High temperatures will again climb to the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Not much change in the extended periods. A weakening cold front will have entered the far northern tier by the time the long term period picks up on Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across north and west Georgia from Wed night with precip spreading further south through the day Thu. As ridging over the Atlantic Coast and west Atlantic continues to flatten, the front will make slow progress southward Thu, eventually stalling north of I-20 amid southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures and dewpoints will start the morning on Thursday in the mid to upper 60s across the area. High temperatures will be slightly cooler across far north Georgia (in the low to mid 80s) behind the front compared to upper 80s elsewhere across north Georgia and low 90s over central Georgia. Hot and humid conditions will support diurnally enhanced convection, with PoPs of 60-80% for North GA, and 20-40% across central GA. The front will become less defined and begin to lift back northward Friday within southwest mid-level flow along the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. This southwesterly flow will intensify as a second ridge approaches from the Great Plains, giving the front an additional push away to the north. While this ridge sets up over the eastern CONUS during the weekend, the aforementioned southwesterly flow will continue to spread ample moisture into the forecast area. Temperatures rising into the 80s and low 90s each day along with ample moisture will lead to scattered to numerous diurnal convection each day through the beginning of next week. Coverage of storms will be greatest during the afternoon and evening. At this time, the deepest moisture and highest PWATs across our area will remain across portions of North and West GA. will keep the most consistent heavy rainfall west of Georgia. Some locations across North GA could see 2 to 3 inch 7 day totals. This will be very welcomed precip to help with our current drought situation. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected across most of the area through the 18Z TAF period. FEW-SCT CU fields of 4-5kft will be around this afternoon, then going mostly SKC tonight. Areas of low CIGs and patchy fog may develop across MCN and areas southeast in the morning. Another round of afternoon CU develops on WED with PROB30 SHRA/TSRA for the ATL area. Winds light out of the S-SE today, going light and VRB overnight, then turning S-SW around 4-8kts after 15Z WED. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High for all elements. Culver && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 91 67 91 / 0 10 10 50 Atlanta 70 89 69 88 / 0 30 20 60 Blairsville 63 85 63 82 / 0 30 20 80 Cartersville 67 90 65 87 / 0 40 30 80 Columbus 69 92 68 92 / 0 20 20 20 Gainesville 67 89 67 87 / 0 20 20 70 Macon 67 92 68 92 / 0 10 0 20 Rome 65 88 63 86 / 0 40 30 80 Peachtree City 67 90 66 89 / 0 30 20 50 Vidalia 65 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...Culver  147 FXUS64 KEWX 191845 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 145 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of strong to severe storms with locally heavy rain possible this evening into tonight. - Active weather pattern continues through the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend. Rounds of storms with heavy rain could lead to localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 At approximately 1 PM noon CDT, satellite and observations indicated a cold front to our north slowly pushing towards the Edwards Plateau. Subsidence from an MCS over South Texas last night helped to produce clearer skies than anticipated over our area this morning and has also modified the mid-level flow relative to previous model forecasts, making today's forecast less confident than usual. Namely, subsidence has allowed an area of drier and warmer near- surface air to take root around the Hill Country, but as moist Gulf air returns this afternoon this may restore more conducive conditions for storm development. The clearer skies should allow daytime warming to promote large amounts of conditional instability over South-Central Texas, to the tune of 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE, and as the front to our north and a dry line to our west encounters this air with the aid of broad southwesterly flow aloft, we do expect that the overhead cap sampled in aircraft observations from near AUS and SAT will eventually be overcome in part by developing thunderstorms along the aforementioned features. The afternoon should remain mostly dry, but storms may begin developing in earnest around the periphery of South-Central Texas mainly after 5 PM CDT. The broader environment continues to favor a line of storms pushing south or southeast across our area, though given the wrinkles to the mid-troposphere there's some disagreement over where storms will form first, largely due to uncertainties with the current bubble of drier air over the Hill Country. The weak front enabling many of these storms will be sluggish, so whatever portion gets active first will have the best shot of becoming the dominant driver of storms this evening/tonight. There are going to be a few areas to initially monitor for storms as we head to the late afternoon into the evening: the front to our north, the dry line near the Rio Grande which extends into the Edwards Plateau, and a lower potential for some isolated activity with some moisture convergence ahead of these features on the I-35 corridor. The primary severe potential today arises from the storms on the front and dry line. The SPC continues to highlight up to a Level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk for severe weather over most of our area this evening. Some of the initial development over the Edwards Plateau could produce isolated large hail, but as storms start to congeal, the risk should lean more towards a potential damaging wind threat if bowing segments begin to materialize from the storm clusters. The heavy rain threat and the potential for isolated flash flooding will also need to be monitored as any slow-moving storm ahead of the front/dry line and higher rates within the lines of storms could drive up rain totals. Areas that catch the main storm complexes could see totals generally above 1" with isolated pockets above 3" within the moist environment with PWATs above the 90th percentile. Uncertainty in the overall timing of this event is somewhat high, but we expect most activity will tend to be concentrated in the evening and first half of the night, clearing out early Wednesday morning. Slightly cooler conditions should prevail in the wake of these storms Wednesday morning. A moist airmass should still remain in place aloft, though the atmosphere will take some time to reload. Temperatures will be a bit more moderated with forecast highs in the 80s. Most of the Wednesday will thus be on the drier side, but as we head later in the day sufficient destabilization and an approaching shortwave trough over West Texas could spark another round of activity along the Rio Grande late afternoon / evening on Wednesday, preferentially along the dry line. Instability should be somewhat lower for these storms compared to today's action, resulting in a lower severe threat. However, these storms could produce locally heavy rain if they advance east Wednesday night into areas saturated by earlier storms. The moist environment could allow these storms to maintain strength with sufficient energy aloft, leading to good rain chances extending from the Rio Grande eastward to the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The wet pattern that kicks off today should continue through the week as persistent upper-level southwesterly flow continues to carve out a favorable pathway for multiple disturbances over our area overlapping atop moist Gulf air. Each round of storms will influence the following day's storm potential, so confidence on precise timing and placement for any activity is low in the long-term forecast. However, based on the broader synoptic environment, a shortwave impulse Thursday could produce another round of activity late Thursday into early Friday. A more pronounced upper-level disturbance may push into the area over the weekend, indicating another favorable time window for potentially widespread rains. The rather stagnant upper-air pattern keeps moisture in our area through early next week, with a lack of clear indicators for a definitive ending to this wet pattern into early next week. Repeated rounds of rainfall will further moisten soils, increasing the broader potential for more surface runoff from rain as grounds saturate. The pattern may lead to widespread beneficial rain for most areas, but the most impacted portions with higher totals and rain rates may see an increasing likelihood for flash flooding or river flooding. Due to the dependence of each round of storms on the previous salvo of activity, it is impractical at this forecast range to pinpoint the areas that will be receiving the most rain, and in general, model precipitation forecasts spread substantial totals across virtually all of the South-Central Texas. Continue to check the forecast as the week progresses for those with plans this weekend for the Memorial Day holiday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Moisture and daytime heating will lead to a developing cu field across the region this afternoon. Some isolated convection remains possible, but given low coverage, we will not mention any SHRA or TSRA for the next few hours. However, we will keep the TSRA in the forecast for the evening hours at all TAF sites as a cold front drops southward with showers and storms developing along and behind the front. Also included a TEMPO group between 01-05Z for the I-35 sites for an increased likelihood of gusty winds, heavy rain and lightning. For DRT, timing is a little less certain, but did focus convection mainly during the 03-06Z period. Low cloud will move in behind the front, with widespread MVFR after 06Z, with some IFR after 10Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 84 71 82 / 80 40 60 90 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 84 71 82 / 80 40 60 90 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 84 70 83 / 80 40 60 80 Burnet Muni Airport68 81 68 79 / 70 40 70 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 86 68 86 / 70 40 80 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 82 69 80 / 80 40 60 90 Hondo Muni Airport 70 84 69 82 / 80 30 80 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 84 71 82 / 80 40 60 90 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 84 72 82 / 80 50 50 90 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 85 72 83 / 80 30 70 80 Stinson Muni Airport 72 85 72 84 / 80 30 70 80 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...Platt  253 FXUS61 KOKX 191846 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 246 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Heat Advisory remains in effect for NYC and northeast New Jersey as hot weather continues through Wednesday. 2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. 3) A much cooler airmass settles over the region Thursday into the holiday weekend with an ongoing chance of showers from time to time. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Southwest flow around an offshore high will continue to keep temperatures well above normal through the day on Wednesday. Temperatures have risen well into the 80s and 90s away from the immediate coastline so far today. Overnight lows will not provide much relief, only falling into the mid 70s across the NYC metro and remaining in the mid 60s across much of the rest of the area. While temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler than today, heat index values will once again rise into the mid 90s across much of New York City and northeast New Jersey. With this in mind, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas. Outside of the advisory area it will still be unseasonably warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coastline. .KEY MESSAGE 2... While an isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be completely ruled out this afternoon and evening across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern Connecticut, conditions overall are expected to remain dry as the best upper level support remains north of the area and subsidence helps to suppress convective development. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms exists on Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region. Precipitation chances will increase through the day, with the best chance for showers and storms between about 2pm-8pm. While storm coverage remains uncertain, any storms that do develop could contain strong gusty winds, with high resolution model soundings indicating the potential for 500-1000 J/kg of DCAPE during the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday. While brief heavy downpours are possible in any storms, overall these storms should be quick moving, which will mitigate the potential for any flooding. With the front lingering just offshore, shower chances will continue through Wednesday night across Long Island and portions of New York City. .KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure begins to build toward the region on Thursday in the wake of the front. This will bring an end to any lingering showers along the coast Thursday morning, with dry conditions continuing into the day on Friday. Temperatures will also be 15-20 degrees colder, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. This is near to even a few degrees below normal for this time of year. Disturbances in the mid levels are forecast to push into the region from mainly a southwest direction during the course of the holiday weekend. The higher likelihood of shower activity currently is slotted for Friday night into Saturday. Afterwards, subsequent shortwave timing differences take place among the various NWP and AI global guidance. Additional shortwaves are expected to move across Sunday, all while heights build along the Mid Atlantic coast. On Monday additional energy may attempt to work in, this time from the west. Therefore the expectation at this time is for intervals of unsettled conditions featuring on and off shower activity. Forecast uncertainty increases more for the second half of the holiday weekend, in particular for Sunday into Monday. A frontal boundary is progged to be stalled to the south throughout the holiday weekend, and may get north enough to bring another round of unsettled conditions with showers late Monday into Tuesday. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Offshore high pressure gives way to an approaching cold front Wednesday. The front moves across late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 18Z Wednesday outside of an isolated thunderstorm north of NYC terminals into early this evening which could produce brief MVFR or lower conditions. Winds will be primarily SW through tonight and then more WSW early Wednesday, becoming more NW late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Wind speeds generally near 10-15 kt much of the TAF period with gusts to 20-25 kt this afternoon into evening and then gusts again to near 20 kt Wednesday. Wind gusts subside late tonight into early Wednesday. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible to refine timing of showers and thunderstorms. A few hours of uncertainty with wind gusts, start and end times could be few hours off from TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night: More chances for brief MVFR or lower conditions 18Z Wednesday to 00Z Thursday with showers becoming more likely as well as a chance of thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe with brief strong gusty winds up to possibly 40 to 50 kt. Winds becoming more NW late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday evening with showers could linger along coastal terminals with MVFR or lower possible. Otherwise VFR. Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions possible early for coastal terminals and NYC terminals at times with a chance of showers. Mainly VFR thereafter. Friday: Possible showers and MVFR conditions. Chances of showers increase late day into night. Showers become likely at night. Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt. Sunday: MVFR or lower with chances of showers. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters through the day on Wednesday. While gusts so far have remained below 25 kt, still expecting seas to build to 5-6 feet and remain elevated through the day on Wednesday. In addition to the elevated seas and marginally gusty winds, a cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening will bring with it the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Once the front passes, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels into Saturday morning before an increasing easterly flow brings advisory conditions to the ocean, and potentially to some of the non-ocean waters Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEB/JE AVIATION...JM MARINE...FEB/JE  407 FXUS61 KCAR 191848 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME Issued by National Weather Service Burlington VT 248 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - The forecast timing of the cold front on Wednesday has sped up slightly, making it a more nocturnal/early morning passage, reducing the potential for thunderstorms Wednesday. - Strong to severe storms continue to be possible this afternoon and evening, with no significant changes to this. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe storms with gusty wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening as temperatures warm through the mid week. Please stay weather aware as showers and storms move through the next couple of days. 2) Below average temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday and Saturday mornings across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe storms with gusty wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening as temperatures warm through the mid week. Please stay weather aware as showers and storms move through the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Surface low pressure is crossing northern Maine into Canada this afternoon, and observed temperatures range in the 50s and 60s along the coast, on the mountains, and across northern Aroostook County, with 70s and 80s elsewhere. Seeing some surface based CAPE across southern and central areas, but much of the region remains capped. Models have surface CAPE values peaking around 700- 900 J/kg this afternoon, highest in Penobscot and Hancock counties. The NAM3 is extra bullish with SBCAPE as high as 1800-2000 J/kg, but this seems overdone as we see plenty of clouds from this morning's rain showers hanging around. Effective bulk wind difference shear is being modeled around 40-45 knots and Pwats are expected to be around 1.75-2.00" in southern Penobscot, Hancock, and Washington counties, with Pwats farther north much lower 1.30-1.50". Low level lapse rates 8.0-8.5 C/km will be a contributor in how strong any developing storms get, and anticipated DCAPE values continue to run around 500-700 J/kg. All of this together indicates some potential for gusty to severe winds in any thunderstorms that occur this afternoon south of Aroostook County. Some hail is not out of the question, but not a major threat. All that being said, the clouds will likely limit sunshine, surface heating, and instability. Forcing also looks less than ideal, though a warm front and a weak upper shortwave could be triggers for cells to pop up here and there. As a stronger cold front approaches early Wednesday, there is another chance for some showers, though its timing looks early enough in the morning to keep surface instability very low, but there could still be a rumble of thunder from elevated instability. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s. As cold air aloft arrives, however, even showers could produce slightly gusty winds 25-35 mph Wednesday afternoon. Highs Wednesday should reach into the mid 70s and 80s, with warmest temps in eastern areas that have more time to warm up ahead of the front. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The frost/freeze program will expand across much of the rest of northern and eastern Maine on Thursday except across the North Woods and Saint John Valley, where it begins on June 1. Strong cold air advection is expected Thursday behind a cold front, resulting in highs only in the 50s and lower 60s, warmest along the coast. Thursday night, a modest low level jet looks to develop overhead, likely keeping unsheltered spots from decoupling, and clouds should be on the increase throughout the night as well. Drier air with dew points in the 20s and lower 30s may also prevent frost formation. Even without frost, some damage to plants is possible in these conditions with temperatures falling into the lower and mid 30s in northern areas as high pressure noses in from the Great Lakes. By Friday night the surface ridge of high pressure extends over the area from central Quebec. This will lead to lighter winds and a better chance of decoupling over more areas, especially the lower elevations of northern Maine. Lows Friday night and Saturday morning are forecast in the 30s to mid 40s, but may end up being lower in ideal radiational cooling conditions. Dew points will also be higher in the upper 20s to mid 30s, leading to more frost formation potential across northern zones. Below average temperatures will continue for Saturday and Saturday night, but a moderation is expected as high pressure moves over and eventually east of the area. Our next chance of precipitation will be early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... This afternoon: Strong to severe storms with gusty wind gusts are possible this afternoon. All sites except KFVE are VFR, but most sites should see ceilings lowering towards MVFR as showers arrive this afternoon. Winds west-southeast at KFVE, more northeasterly at KCAR and KPQI, while winds are out of the southwest at KBGR. Wind gusts 15-25 knots possible. Best chance for thunderstorms is during the afternoon into evening. Moving through, thunderstorms could produce additional gusty winds, lightning, and small hail. Tonight: Ceilings lowering to MVFR and IFR levels for most sites with winds light and variable, terrain or geographically driven. On and off showers are possible throughout the night. LLWS beginning 04Z-09Z Wednesday and continuing into Wednesday morning daylight hours. Wednesday: Ceilings increase again to MVFR or VFR levels with shower chances continuing. Winds increasing out of the southwest with gusts 25-35 knots. Wednesday night to Thursday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Thursday night: VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts. Friday: VFR. NW winds NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Friday night to Saturday: VFR with light and variable winds, increasing to around 5-10 kts during the day. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for outer waters in effect for tonight into Wednesday, with seas around 5ft and some wind gusts to 25kts possible. Chance for some marine fog this morning. Chance for passing rain today, and chance for rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday. SW winds today into Wednesday. Winds and seas are likely to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday night through early next week. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for outer waters in effect for tonight into Wednesday, with seas around 5ft and some wind gusts to 25kts possible. Chance for passing rain this afternoon, and chance for rain on Wednesday. SW winds today into Wednesday. Winds and seas are likely to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday night through early next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...JS AVIATION...JS  433 FXUS64 KMOB 191849 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches today. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the western half of the forecast area. - Localized patchy dense fog will be possible again late tonight into Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The area will remain in southwest flow aloft between a ridge off the southeast coast and a trough over the western states. This will keep the highest rain chances mainly west of the area today. Starting on Wednesday, the ridge slowly weakens and shifts southeast. This will allow for the higher chances of rain to move into the area with the highest chances through Friday across southeast Mississippi. Rain chances remain elevated through the weekend as a series of shortwaves continue to round the northern edge of the upper level ridge. Patchy dense fog will be possible each night. Any fog will develop late into the overnight hours before lifting fairly quickly after sunrise. Temperatures will be near to just above normal through the weekend. Highs will generally be in the mid and upper 80s with a few areas around 90 each day. Lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s. /13 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon and into the evening hours. By late evening and into the overnight hours, low ceilings of IFR or lower may develop and spread across the area, along with some patchy fog. The greatest potential for dense fog is along and east of I-65. Any fog/low ceilings that does manage to develop will dissipate a little after sunrise. Southeasterly winds of around 5-10 knots will become more light and variable tonight. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 88 71 86 / 0 10 0 20 Pensacola 72 86 73 85 / 0 10 0 10 Destin 72 84 72 84 / 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 69 90 68 90 / 10 30 10 10 Waynesboro 71 90 70 87 / 10 30 20 30 Camden 71 89 69 87 / 10 20 20 20 Crestview 68 91 68 91 / 0 30 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  443 FXUS65 KTFX 191849 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1249 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through this evening across the region. - More widespread precipitation tomorrow through Thursday. - Snow levels drop Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing for light snowfall accumulation in the mountains. - Warm and dry conditions are expected Friday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Residual moisture from the backside of an upper level trough exiting to the east will bring slight chances for precipitation this afternoon through this evening. There is enough instability to support weak thunderstorm development, especially in Central and North-central MT. Another upper level trough moves down from the Canadian Rockies into Montana tomorrow, bringing widespread wetting precipitation. There will still be enough instability to where a rumble of thunder could be heard across the region. A weak cold front passing through tomorrow night will cause snow levels to drop to around 6,000 ft. This will allow for light snowfall over the mountains and higher elevation mountain passes tomorrow night through Thursday morning. The exceptions are the Gallatin and Madison ranges, which could see a few inches. Thursday the upper level trough begins to move southeastward out of MT, allowing temperatures to begin to rise. Ridging builds over the western CONUS through the later part of this work week into the weekend, allowing warm temperatures, sunny skies, and dry conditions to prevail. Current models are showing breezy conditions this weekend, but as of now nothing impactful. -Dzomba - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Hi-res models are showing pretty scattered 15-30% chances for precipitation across the region today. In general, most locations will remain dry throughout the day except for where these pop-up showers end up developing. The highest chances for thunderstorm activity will be across Central and North-Central MT There is still good agreement for widespread wetting rains tomorrow. The heaviest amounts are currently expected along a stretch from the Northern Rockies down through Central MT including Great Falls and Helena into Lewistown. Probabilities of more than 0.10" of precipitation in this area are currently 80-100%, while probabilities of 0.25" of precipitation are currently sitting at 50-70%. While precipitation amounts across the remainder of North-Central and Southwest MT are not expected to be quite as high, there is still a 20-40% chance for a tenth of an inch or more. -thor and Dzomba && .AVIATION... 19/18Z TAF Period Initial concern this TAF period will be for afternoon and early evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. Briefly gusty and erratic winds will accompany this showery activity. Concern then turns to a cold front moving from north to south late tonight into Wednesday, primarily impacting terminals over the plains. A mix of showery and stratiform precipitation will accompany the wind shift to a more northwesterly direction behind the front. Lowering ceilings over the plains Wednesday morning will result in increasing mountain obscuration. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 40 58 38 63 / 20 80 70 20 CTB 38 55 34 63 / 10 80 40 0 HLN 38 64 38 63 / 20 60 90 40 BZN 34 63 35 58 / 20 40 90 60 WYS 26 57 30 55 / 10 40 80 40 DLN 34 62 35 60 / 20 20 70 40 HVR 40 62 36 66 / 30 50 10 10 LWT 36 58 35 57 / 20 80 80 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  534 FXUS62 KTAE 191852 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend. Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95 degree range. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. Coverage will then increase over this weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger storms. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery currently shows two different maxima of moisture. The first maximum, characterized by PW values of 1.5 to 1.6 inches, is located along the U.S. 19 corridor from Perry FL down to the Suwannee. The second maximum, with PWs of 1.4-1.5 inches, is located west of the U.S. 231 corridor in FL and AL. These are the areas that will be favored for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon and this evening. On Wednesday, drier mid-level air which water vapor imagery highlights east of the First Coast will migrate westward, nearly shutting down convection along the Nature Coast seabreeze. In contrast, the Emerald Coast seabreeze over the Panhandle will have even more moisture to play with. PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will support scattered PM thunderstorms, with southeast steering flow then taking storms northwestward into the Alabama Wiregrass. Given pockets of mid-level dry air, a favorable downdraft environment will support briefly strong convective gusts of 40-50 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Through Friday, the 500 mb pattern will feature a fairly sharp ridge axis extending from the SW Gulf to the NE Gulf, acting as a suppressor to PM seabreeze thunderstorm development. PM storms will be isolated at most. This weekend, the upper ridge axis will move east across the FL Peninsula and then east of FL early next week. In response, weak southerly to southwesterly mid- level flow will develop across our region, acting as less of a suppressor to convection. 1000-700 mb layer southeast flow will become better defined this weekend, bringing a more reliable feed of deeper moisture from the vicinity of the Greater Antilles. By next Monday and Tuesday, GEFS ensemble members show the most likely range of PWs in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range areawide. PoPs will respond with an initial jump on Saturday, then a slower climb in rain chances from Sunday through next Tuesday. This is starting to look more classically like the start of summer rainy season. Otherwise, the proximity of upper ridging through this weekend will support afternoon temperature running 1-4 degrees above normal. Inland highs will commonly reach the 90-95 degree range, with heat index values in the 95-100 range. We have already seen minor heat-related impacts over the last couple of weeks. Now we will start to see Moderate heat-related impacts, as highlighted in NWS Heat Risk. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 There is a small chance for a few showers or thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle this afternoon, but confidence in impacts to terminals is very low. There is also a chance for MVFR to briefly IFR conditions overnight across GA, but confidence is too low to include for now. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 192026 A high pressure center will persist near Bermuda through this weekend, with a broad ridge extending west to the Georgia coast. Gentle easterly breezes over the northeast Gulf will become southeasterly on Thursday then continue through this weekend, interrupted each afternoon by the nearshore seabreeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The main fire weather concern over the next 7 days will be gusty and erratic winds near afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Through Friday, storms will be isolated, favoring the Nature Coast seabreeze and the Emerald Coast seabreeze. Thunderstorm coverage will increase this weekend as the air mass moistens a little more, becoming scattered and persisting through early next week. Otherwise, a seasonably hot air mass will persist, with afternoon temperatures will running 1-4 degrees above normal. Areas of fog are expected on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, mainly west of U.S. 231 through the Panhandle and Lower Alabama. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Heavy downpours beneath the core of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may lead to localized and short-lived nuisance flooding in urban or poor drainage areas, mainly from Saturday onward as thunderstorm coverage increases and the air mass moistens further. Larger scale flooding and river flooding are not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 91 71 93 / 10 20 0 10 Panama City 72 87 71 87 / 0 40 0 0 Dothan 70 90 69 90 / 10 40 20 20 Albany 70 91 69 92 / 0 10 10 10 Valdosta 66 91 69 93 / 10 10 0 10 Cross City 67 93 70 94 / 20 10 0 20 Apalachicola 75 83 72 85 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haner LONG TERM....Haner AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Haner  674 FXUS63 KTOP 191856 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 156 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures through Thursday then much warmer late this weekend into early next week. - Precipitation chances return Wednesday night and continue into early Friday though no severe weather expected. - Mainly dry conditions likely for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cloud cover slowly diminishing with cool north winds keeping early afternoon temps in the 50s. Clearing trend continues into tonight though northeast winds stay up somewhat and should keep any frost potential in check; NBM 10th percentile has mid 30s for lows in northern portions of Republic and Washington Counties. Dry air remains in place Wednesday but little advection should keep highs in the 60s. South to southeast flow returns around 850 mb Wednesday night inducing weak though consistent isentropic upglide into at least Thursday night for high rain chances at all locations over this period. Better coverage and intensity may come Thursday night as a southern branch upper wave moves through. Instability remains meager with MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg though PW around 1.25 inches could support some decent rain. Rain and cloud keeps Thursday's highs cool again and 60s could be aggressive in a wetter scenario. Should see a break in precip Friday for warmer temperatures. Upper troughing remains just upstream into early Saturday which supports modest precip chances Friday night but features to support precipitation beyond this are uncertain at best with large spreads in solutions by Monday evening. A general southerly low-level flow supports temperatures back above normal by Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR cloud is slowly dissipating and expect VFR conditions at all sites by 21Z but some uncertainty in exact timing and heights remains with current heights around FL020. Winds should back off and veer slightly as high pressure builds into the region. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Poage  793 FXUS65 KBOU 191859 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1259 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled Tuesday through Friday with scattered to numerous showers and a few storms, most numerous in/near the Front Range. - Warming and drying trend for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1259 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough over the Great Basin with southwest flow across Colorado. The right entrance of a 100-110 knot jet will provide lift for bands of showers. Radar and satellite imagery indicate this jet lift is increasing with showers currently forming. Showers will continue through the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Best jet lift exits the area this evening, but upslope flow and ascent ahead of the trough should provide enough lift for light showers to continue tonight. The best chance for showers shifts over eastern Colorado by sunrise Wednesday morning. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening as upslope flow persist and lift ascent from the trough continues.  Colorado will be between systems late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. We finally see some sunshine, which will push temperatures into the 60s. This will help destabilize the airmass, with SBCAPE climbing to 500-1000 J/kg. Lift increases throughout the day ahead of an upper level trough moving east- southeast across Wyoming. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening. Depending on the amount of instability, a few of the storms could be severe. Something to monitor over the next two days. Areas of rain are expected to linger into the overnight hours Thursday and by Friday morning, rain showers will exit the eastern plains. Most of Friday is expected to be dry with temperatures in the 60s across northeast Colorado. A weak wave embedded in the flow aloft will bring scattered showers late Friday and early Saturday.  An upper level ridge begins to build over the Central and Southern Rockies Saturday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms decrease, but there may be enough moisture for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s across northeast Colorado. Ridging will be centered over the Central Rockies Sunday and the first half of Monday. Temperatures will continue to warm under the ridge with highs in the 70s to lower 80s across northeast Colorado. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be very low Sunday, but increase Monday as the ridge slides off to the east late in the day. For next Tuesday, models show an upper level trough digging south across the northwest part of the country. Ahead of this, we should see a round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.  && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Will keep ceilings in the BKN-OVC020-040 range this afternoon and in the BKN-OVC010-025 range tonight. Will keep a TEMPO or PROB30 group in for -SHRA this afternoon and tonight. Visibilities should stay at P6SM. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...66