901 FXUS61 KAKQ 191900 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 300 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered high temperatures slightly on Thursday and Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and dry conditions continue through much of the day tomorrow. A strong cold front will bring the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area later tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. 2) Cooler and more unsettled conditions Thursday and especially Friday in the wake of the front. Cool and unsettled conditions may continue through much of the Holiday Weekend as the front lingers near the area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and dry conditions continue through much of the day tomorrow. A strong cold front will bring the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area later tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. High pressure remains centered well offshore leading to continued warm S-SW flow across the area this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed into the low-mid 90s for most locations away from the immediate coast. Near-record highs are possible this afternoon, with the best chance for a record high at Richmond. Remaining mild tonight with lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s. Highs on Wednesday will again range from the mid to upper 90s inland to the lower 90s closer to the coast. By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms are expected to develop, focusing along the pre- frontal trough to our northwest. Model trends continue to slow the arrival of the cold front, lagging into later Wednesday evening across the north, and Thursday morning south of US-460 into NE NC. 12z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through much of Wednesday evening. SPC has maintained a Day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for the northern half of the forecast area with the afternoon update. The risk of severe storms still looks marginal locally, with the better instability and forcing located to our N/NW. Still think there is a decent potential storms may begin to dissipate by the time they reach the local area. Still, a few stronger to severe storms remain possible, especially for areas north of Richmond and over to the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with any stronger storms, though an isolated instance of large hail cannot be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler and more unsettled conditions Thursday and especially Friday in the wake of the front. Cool and unsettled conditions may continue through much of the Holiday Weekend as the front lingers near the area. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada late Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south of the area Thursday. The cold front then settles south of the area and stalls over the Carolinas on Friday. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values allow rain chances to ramp up quickly late Thursday and Thursday night, leaving an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup for Friday, with highs in the 60s to 70s forecast. Still some uncertainty with respect to the cool air/CAD wedge setup as we head into the weekend. There are some indications that the airmass may linger through much of Saturday (and potentially Sunday) before a warm front slowly lifts over the area and the CAD airmass erodes. The front then likely gets hung up over northern portions of the area and lingers into early next week. This will lead to the potential for continued unsettled conditions throughout the holiday weekend and cooler temperatures than currently in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. Gradual warming is expected heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through Wednesday with primarily S-SW winds. - A front crosses the waters Thursday morning, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions from Thursday through Friday due to NE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. High pressure will remain anchored near Bermuda through Wednesday, while a cold front slowly approaches from the north (but the front will remain north of the waters through Wednesday evening). Current marine wind obs indicate S-SW winds of 10-15 kt. Winds will increase to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on the bay this evening-early tonight (and 15-20 kt w/ 25 kt gusts on the ocean). Winds diminish back to 10-15 kt by late tonight, and remain in that range through Wed with the stagnant pattern. Will likely see a few 20 kt gusts on the bay late Wed aftn-Wed evening. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds behind it. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt from Thursday through Friday. SCAs appear likely for portions of the bay (due to winds) and coastal waters N of the VA-NC border (due to seas building to 5-6 ft behind the front). Local wind probabilities show a relatively high (60-90%) chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the middle/lower bay from Thu-Fri. Winds diminish and become more variable this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes some. While the GFS still has 10-20 kt NE winds over the weekend, it is an outlier at this time. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) through Wednesday, with a low risk elsewhere. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Richmond set a new record high Monday of 96 degrees. This broke the previous record of 95 degrees set in 1911. Another day of near-record to record-breaking heat is expected today, with record high minimum temperatures also possible. Record High Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High/Year High/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM AVIATION...AJB MARINE...ERI CLIMATE...MAM  907 FXUS63 KIND 191900 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 300 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms and locally heavy rain possible again this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and localized flooding the primary concerns - A Flood Watch is in effect from 3pm today to 2pm Wednesday. - Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Today and Tonight - Satellite imagery shows cumulus developing as the boundary layer becomes destabilized (IND ACARS shows around 1500 J/Kg MLCAPE). As such, renewed convective activity appears likely again this afternoon. In fact, a few showers have already popped up near Columbus as of 2pm. In terms of hazards, RAP soundings indicate that some mid-level dry air may be present today. ACARS soundings from IND show the dry air and DCAPE values of 1100 J/Kg as of 2pm. This, combined with steep lapse rates and a LLJ around 30-40kt, could allow for downburst and efficient downward momentum transfer. About 25 knots of effective shear may also be enough to allow for loose organization into multicell clusters. Therefore, strong to damaging wind gusts are possible with storms today. The wind threat diminishes after sunset as the column moistens and lapse rates weaken slightly. RAP soundings show the atmosphere becoming more efficient for rainfall production overnight (deep warm cloud layer, saturation to the EL, and moist adiabatic lapse rates). A cold front sagging south across Indiana will interact with an MCV approaching from the southwest, prolonging large-scale lift tonight. Most guidance is on board with showers and thunderstorms continuing on and off through the night. There is a signal for heavy rain within most guidance with pockets of 1 to 3 inches across the southern half of our area. QPF coverage in guidance isn't as widespread as yesterday, but these pockets tend to line up where the heaviest rain fell. Additional flooding may be possible tonight and a Flood Watch has been issued for the southern half of our CWA. Wednesday through Monday - Once the front has pushed south of the area, it will stall out a bit, though high pressure passing through the Great Lakes in its wake will keep it suppressed to the south and allow for both a brief cooldown and a break in precip chances from late Wednesday into Thursday evening. Rain chances return late week into early next week as a large upper level low swings through the northern tier of the country and pulls a warmer and moist airmass back into the area, though chances with the exception of Friday will be low for the time being given significant model inconsistencies and resulting uncertainty. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Impacts: - Wind gusts today 25-30KT - Showers and thunderstorms possible late this afternoon into tonight - Scattered showers continue into the day Wednesday - MVFR ceilings tonight into Wednesday, IFR possible Discussion: Winds have strengthened this morning to between 15-25kt with gusts of 25-30KT likely through the day, generally from 210-230 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in the day as a cold front approaches and passes through the area. Winds with frontal passage will veer to westerly and northwesterly late in the period, with gusts ending in typical diurnal fashion this evening. Ceilings post frontal will likely drop into MVFR. IFR conditions are possible, but less likely. The placement of rain showers overnight will influence if/where IFR conditions develop. Rain showers continue on and off through tonight into Wednesday afternoon as the cold front slows. These will be scattered in nature so a VCSH group was carried through the end of the TAF period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ052>055-060>064- 067>072. && $$ AVIATION...Eckhoff DISCUSSION...Nield/Eckhoff  961 FXUS65 KREV 191901 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1201 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures warm to around 5-10 degrees above normal by mid to late week. * Warming temperatures will support afternoon terrain buildups near the Sierra, with low-end thunder chances Thursday into the weekend. * Afternoon west breezes continue this week, with somewhat stronger breezes possible by Memorial Day into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure building over the West will bring a steady warming trend through the week, with highs running around 5-10 degrees above normal by mid to late week. Western Nevada valleys will warm into the lower to mid 80s, with Sierra communities mainly in the upper 60s to 70s. Most areas remain dry, with little to no measurable precipitation expected through the week. The warming trend will also drive weak terrain-driven instability near the Sierra into the latter half of the week. Wednesday still looks more like afternoon cumulus buildups near the Mono County crest rather than actual showers or storms, with thunder chances generally less than 5%. By Thursday and Friday, low-end shower and thunder chances expand northward into the Tahoe Basin, northeast California, and far western Nevada, though probabilities remain low, generally around 5-15% at best. Any showers or storms would be isolated, brief, and capable of little rainfall. Memorial Day weekend remains warm with low-end thunder chances each afternoon, generally 5-10% for most areas and locally near 15% along favored higher terrain. This does not look like a widespread thunderstorm or wetting rainfall setup, but those outdoors should still keep an eye on the sky, especially near the Sierra and higher terrain. Afternoon west breezes continue through the week, with gusts generally 15-25 mph most days, then increasing somewhat by Memorial Day with gusts around 25-35 mph possible for portions of western Nevada. -Johnston && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the week with no significant visibility or precipitation impacts at the main terminals. Winds remain typical for late May, with afternoon west to southwest breezes most days. Peak gusts will generally remain around 15-25 kt. Afternoon cumulus buildups are possible near the Sierra crest west of MMH Wednesday, with low-end isolated shower or thunderstorm chances Thursday into the weekend near the Sierra, northeast California, and far western Nevada. Terminal impact probabilities remain low, but any nearby buildup could produce localized gusty outflow winds and brief terrain obscuration near the Sierra crest. -Johnston && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  039 FXUS63 KDVN 191902 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 202 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a cooler than normal second half of the week, rain chances will be on the increase just before the weekend. - A pattern change over the weekend will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the area next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Slowly clearing skies will be seen tonight into Wednesday with cooler than normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Thursday through Friday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of a storm system. Low to medium (20-40%) confidence on rainfall. The second half of the work week will be characterized by cooler than normal temperatures. The global models have a storm system forecast to impact the Midwest late in the week but there are timing differences. Interestingly, most ensemble members of the global models take the main surface low east of the Mississippi which raises questions regarding the overall rainfall potential for the area. The timing differences between the various models and their ensembles result in an overall risk for rain that potentially could start as early as Thursday or hold off until Friday. Based on the overall large scale picture, the various global models are indicating very late Thursday night into Friday as being the most likely time period for any rain to occur. Here the model consensus has a 60-70% chance of rain. Rain would then linger into Friday evening before ending. Overall rainfall amounts will be variable; Some locations will see under 0.25 inches of rain while some may see close to an inch. Sunday through Tuesday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of warmer than normal temperatures The holiday weekend will be mainly dry although a rogue diurnal shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Starting Sunday the pattern change will be noticeable as temperatures trend above normal and are then expected to remain above normal next week. All models show an upper level ridge building along the east coast which will place the Midwest in southwest flow aloft. Humidity levels will be on the increase with dew points raising initially into the upper 50s and lower 60s; tolerable for all but the most sensitive people. Starting Tuesday humidity levels will be much more noticeable and uncomfortable as dew points climb into the mid 60s. The increased moisture combined with the very warm temperatures and a passing upper level disturbance is expected to result in mainly diurnal convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right now the model consensus has rain chances at 15 to 25 percent. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cold front is east of the Mississippi with MVFR CIGS all across Iowa. Wind gusts up to 27 knots will create considerable low level mechanical turbulence through sunset. Very short term models have CIGS raising to VFR too quickly and the 18z TAFs delay the arrival of VFR until after 00z/20. After 00z/20 wind will diminish to around 10 knots and become more northerly as high pressure builds into the Midwest. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...08  081 FXUS65 KGGW 191903 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 103 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms are expected to track in from the west this afternoon and evening, mainly west of a line extending through Opheim to Glasgow to Jordan. - More scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, and an isolated storm may be on the stronger side with wind gusts to 50 mph. - Warmer temperatures are forecast for this weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An initial shortwave on northwest flow aloft tracking between the ridge to the west and trough to the east looks to provide enough dynamic support for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Much of this is expected to quickly diminish after sunset with little if any fanfare. On Wednesday, a low pressure trough over central Montana will track east with a cold front pushing through eastern parts of the state. The HREF is supportive of a little more widespread convection between about 21Z and 03Z. The max ensemble wind gust guidance also suggests that a few of the storms may be capable of strong wind gusts to around 50 mph. The upper trough will slide east on Thursday with lingering showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms. QPF overall will be light Wednesday and Thursday, though an isolated wetting rain is possible with the steadier more concentrated convection. Ensembles are attempting to show a ridge pattern emerging over the weekend, though potentially still with embedded shortwaves. In general this will mean a warming trend though potentially with an isolated thunderstorm at times. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High resolution guidance was used for near term POPS with additional refinements for collaboration purposes. Some of the HREF members introduce convection a bit earlier into the afternoon on Wednesday, something future shifts may need to better account for. Otherwise, confidence is moderate to high on isolated to scattered coverage given model consensus. Ensemble spread increases toward the weekend with confidence increasing for the warm up, but less confidence exists on emerging precipitation chances at larger time scales due to ensemble spread, and shortwave timing. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: Tuesday May 19, 2026 at 1845Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. DISCUSSION: Mostly sunny skies are expected to start out though look for increasing cumulus cloud and high cirrus this evening as isolated thunderstorms remain mainly west of area terminals. WIND: Winds will be south to southeast this afternoon and evening at 10 to 15 kts, diminishing to around 10 kts or less after 03Z. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  104 FXUS63 KLSX 191904 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 204 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today's cold front will bring in cooler and drier weather for the next few days. - Rain chances increase again late this week into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is slowly pushing southeast through the region this afternoon. While a humid airmass still exists ahead of the front, extensive cloud cover and light rain streaming across the area as blow off from convection over Arkansas has really put a damper on solar heating, reducing the chances for additional thunderstorm development on the front as it moves through our area this afternoon. Most of us will just see clouds and light rain with perhaps a stray rumble of thunder through the evening. Better chances of thunderstorm development will be focused closer to the Ohio River Valley. As the front moves through, winds will shift to the northwest and our temperature and dewpoint drop into the 50s. This will be a noticeable change from our early season warm and humid air mass we've felt for the last few days. Extensive low level cloud cover behind the front lasts at least through the night tonight, ensuring we only bottom out in the 50s for most due to the cold advection and lack of additional radiational cooling. If thick clouds linger through the day tomorrow, then highs will struggle to make it out of the 50s, but if we get more sun we could make a run at 70. Current NBM forecast is on the higher end and represents expectations if clouds break up a bit more, while the MAV and MET both suggest more widespread upper 50s to low 60s, below the 10th percentile of NBM guidance. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The mid level flow pattern across the continent will increasingly feature some variation of troughing in the West and ridging over the Southeast US coast. This puts our area in southwesterly mid level flow steering subtle disturbances through the center of the country. At the surface, strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain its influence locally, with easterly low level winds and warm sector heat and humidity staying largely south of our region. Thus while we see rain chances increasing late Thursday into Friday and continuing on and off through the weekend, this will by in large be showers and elevated thunderstorms with a minimal severe weather risk considering the lack of access locally to the richer low level moisture flowing off the Gulf. Greater confidence is with the Thursday-Friday time frame as an initial trough moves northeast through the flow. After that, guidance varies more considerably on how to handle the remaining trough with some maintaining a more robust cut off low over the Southern Plains which keeps us in the line of fire for additional disturbances through the weekend while others transition towards northwest flow. Latest NBM continues rain chances through this weekend which is warranted, but our confidence is lower on the timing and location of these rounds of rain. Regarding temperatures, NBM continues to occupy the top spot among all of guidance for maximum temperatures this weekend. Its spring bias correction is dominating the physical forecast. For high temperatures, modeled temperatures aloft are a first stop for any forecast. This weekend among the long range ensemble guidance there's fairly good agreement that 925MB temperatures will be in the 16-18C Friday through Sunday with an IQR of only 2 to 3C. Assuming strong mixing to the surface, which can be expected on a sunny May day, high temperatures would top out in the low to mid70s. But strong mixing isn't a given. As noted in the prior paragraph, subtle disturbances in the southwesterly flow may bring additional rounds of clouds and showers this weekend, and if that occurs we would not expect full mixing. So while the official forecast has temperatures drifting well into the 80s for the holiday weekend, we have low confidence in this and strong reason to suspect below normal temperatures continuing. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Thunderstorms to the south in Arkansas have spread a thick blanket of clouds and light, high based rain showers across our region this afternoon. Beneath all of this, a cold front is pushing southeast across the region. Southerly winds ahead of the front turn to the northwest behind it. Lower ceilings also accompany the front's arrival, with most locations upstream in the MVFR range, but some areas immediately behind the front IFR for a few hours. These lower ceilings likely last through the night and into Wednesday morning before some improvement during the day Wednesday. Although there's an outside chance of a thunderstorm developing in the vicinity of the front this afternoon, the chances are too low to include in any TAF at this issuance. Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  619 FXUS63 KGLD 191911 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 111 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week, perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Frost Advisory: In the advisory area, a short period of frost is possible an hour or two on either side of sunrise this morning, when pervasive low ceilings (2000-3000 ft AGL at 0845Z) will begin to lift/scatter. Observational trends suggest that Yuma/Kit Carson counties are most at-risk for frost (relatively speaking). Low confidence in frost development, especially south of Hwy 36 where breezy (10-20 mph) north winds are more likely to persist through sunrise. Today: ~1025 mb surface high pressure in Wyoming at 06Z will build ESE over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas today. Expect decreasing cloud cover by sunrise and mostly clear skies by late morning as northerly low-level flow advects a drier airmass southward into the Tri-State Area. Winds will decrease to 5-10 mph by late morning to early afternoon (~16-19Z).. in concert with a weakening MSLP-850 mb height gradient. Clear skies / unimpeded insolation will foster a warming trend with highs ranging from the upper 50's to upper 60's. Tonight: Light N winds will shift to the E (this evening) and SE (early Wed morning) as the surface high over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas progresses slowly E toward northwest Missouri/western Iowa.. leading to modest low-level moisture return (850 mb dewpoints rising from -3 to 3C) by sunrise in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties. Strengthening mid- level (700-500 mb) warm advection in advance of an upper level wave.. a modest 250-350 mb trough / shear-axis progressing eastward from the 4-Corners to the central Rockies.. will foster increasing mid-level cloud cover (ceilings at/above ~7,000 ft AGL) this evening and overnight. Despite a modest increase in low-level moisture and an increasingly upslope component to low- level flow in eastern CO, guidance suggests that weak/neutral low-level thermal advection will be insufficient for low stratus development, and that.. mid-level warm advection, in of itself, will likely be insufficient to produce measurable precipitation (i.e. anything beyond virga/sprinkles) prior to sunrise. Expect overnight (Wed morning) lows in the upper 30's to lower 40's. Wednesday: Showers are possible over portions of the area, mainly west and north of Goodland during the late morning and early afternoon when/where mid-level warm advection will be strongest; enough to capitalize on/utilize modest elevated instability (~100-250 J/kg MUCAPE). Expect broken/overcast cloud cover over most or all of the area and ~10-20 mph SE winds with highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 110 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Saturday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough along the Rocky Mountains. Expect mostly sunny skies and a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25-35% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties Sunday and Monday. Warm temperatures continue Tuesday with highs forecast in the 80s. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible Tuesday for the western CWA. With relative humidity (RH) values overall trending down and forecast in the low 20s forTuesday, fire weather potential will need to be monitored through the week. Models are in disagreement on the track and evolution of a surface low off the coast of Baja California that starts to develop late Sunday. If this surface low ends up tracking toward our region, we have potential for an active pattern and severe weather potential late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will gradually increase tonight with scattered light showers in the area by 12z Wednesday morning. No impacts are expected at this time at either terminal. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...024/ICT  621 FXUS65 KBYZ 191910 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 110 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weather system brings the chance of precipitation to the area Wednesday into Thursday (60 to 100 percent, greatest over south- central Montana and north-central Wyoming). - 50-90% chance of seeing at least 0.50 inches of liquid precipitation west of a line from Harlowton to Sheridan. Snow levels as low as 6 kft. High chance for greater than 6 inches of snow in the mountains. - Increasing temperatures starting Friday with 80s F Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... A weather system will impact the region Wednesday and Thursday. It begins late Wednesday with the passage of a cold front bringing Pacific Moisture. Northeast winds will create favorable conditions for mountains and foothills locations. Cross sections indicate deep moisture and decent omega, further increasing precipitation potential. Precipitation chances of 80-100% for the mountains and foothills decrease to the east with locations such as Miles City and Baker having the lowest chances (60%). This system will also bring thunderstorm chances of 15-30% Wednesday and Thursday. Severe storms are not expected. Locations west of a line from Harlowton to Sheridan have a 40-80% chance of getting greater than 0.5 inches of precipitation with locations locations east of Rosebud County having a <20% chance. Snow levels are expected to be in the 6,000-7,000 ft range keeping snow accumulations in the mountains. The Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains have a 50-100% chance of getting greater than 6 inches of snowfall but generally a <20% chance for greater than 12 inches. The Bighorn Mountains have a 50-80% chance for getting greater than 6 inches of snowfall and 30-50% chance for greater than 12 inches over the highest peaks. The highest snowfall totals will occur on north and east facing slopes. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s F will cool into the 50s and 60s F Thursday. Friday through Sunday will see increasing heights leading to warming temperatures and dry conditions. Temperatures in the 60s F Friday increase into the 80s F Sunday and Monday. More uncertainty enters the forecast early next week as ensemble systems indicate the potential for troughing to impact the region bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation chances. Torgerson .AVIATION... 18z Discussion... Light southerly winds will become more westerly after 00z. In the next few hours SHRA will start to move into the forecast area (KLVM/K6S0) before spreading eastwards to KBIL around 00z. KSHR and KMLS may see a shower between 00z and 12z however, there is a low (20%) chance. All sites should stay VFR, but a brief reduction down to MVFR with any passing shower is possible. A brief push of prevailing northwesterly winds, including at KBIL, is possible between 22 and 06z with the FROPA. While unlikely, a chance of a stray lightning strike connot be ruled out. (Highest chance for KBIL/KLVM/K3HT and nearby sites.) Mountains will be come partially obscured after 22z. WMR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 042/069 043/056 039/070 044/079 050/084 053/088 053/082 04/T +8/W 00/U 00/U 10/U 01/U 11/B LVM 036/063 036/054 033/067 039/076 045/081 048/083 047/075 13/T +9/T 00/B 01/B 11/U 11/N 14/T HDN 036/071 041/057 036/070 040/079 046/084 049/088 050/083 01/B 89/W 10/U 00/U 10/U 01/U 11/B MLS 039/072 043/062 040/069 041/078 048/084 050/088 053/084 01/B 45/W 21/B 00/U 10/U 00/U 10/N 4BQ 039/071 042/060 039/067 041/076 047/083 050/088 054/084 00/B 26/T 41/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B BHK 036/072 038/064 037/067 040/075 046/083 049/088 052/084 01/B 36/T 53/W 10/U 00/U 10/U 10/N SHR 031/066 036/050 032/065 035/074 040/081 043/086 045/081 01/B 3+/T 52/W 00/U 01/U 00/U 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  721 FXHW60 PHFO 191913 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 913 AM HST Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An unstable and somewhat wet trade wind pattern will continue through tonight, with brief downpours possible. From Wednesday into early next week, an area of high pressure north of the islands will push drier air into the region. Trades are expected to become windy by Thursday and Friday, then will gradually ease back to locally breezy levels this weekend. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Isolated showers were moving west over mainly windward and mauka areas this morning, and skies were partly to mostly cloudy over most of the state. Winds were averaging 5 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts in the usual windy spots. We expect a few moderate to briefly heavy showers this afternoon, but probably not as heavy as yesterday as moisture is a little lower today. All this is handled well by the current forecast and no changes are planned at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM HST Tue May 19 2026 Early this morning, local radar imagery shows just a few light scattered showers moving into the islands on locally breezy easterly trade wind flow. Similar to the day prior, the heavier showers that occurred at select spots yesterday quickly diminished during the late afternoon and evening, leaving only light, isolated showers favoring windward areas overnight. Regional satellite imagery early this morning does show a few bands of moisture upstream of the state, however, and although moisture content has decreased from the previous couple of days, the early morning 12z soundings from Lihue and Hilo still show ample precipitable water available. Drier air is forecast to arrive from tonight into Wednesday night as high pressure north of the state strengthens. In the meantime, expect a relatively wet trade wind weather pattern to continue, with moderate to briefly heavy rain from showers that will generally favor windward and mauka areas, as well as the Kona slopes of the Big Island during the afternoon. From late Wednesday onward, precipitable water values are anticipated to decrease back down to around 1 inch, and this drier air will persist into next week. Increased stability and stronger trade winds are expected by Thursday. Latest global guidance remains in good agreement with the high to our north strengthening, which should result in windy conditions across the region. Winds could potentially reach Wind Advisory levels Thursday into Friday for some areas, then decreasing back to locally breezy levels during the second half of the weekend. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist today and increase on Wednesday as the atmosphere gradually becomes more stable. Periods of MVFR conditions will primarily affect windward mountain areas, though an isolated heavy shower could develop over leeward terrain this afternoon. No AIRMETs are in effect. We will monitor for potential mountain obscuration across windward areas. Increasing trade winds and stability will eventually require AIRMET Tango for low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain. && .MARINE... Locally fresh trades become strong to locally near-gales during the latter half of the week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect and will eventually be expanded to all waters as winds and seas build later this week. Small, short to medium period NNW swell will fill in today. This will be followed by a small NNW swell emanating from a strong low near the Aleutian Islands by late week. A series of small, long period SSW swells supports near-average surf along S shores. Meanwhile, strengthening trades maintain elevated surf and short period fresh swell along E facing shores into next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ DISCUSSION...Vaughan AVIATION...Wroe MARINE...JVC  684 FXUS63 KFGF 191912 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures drop to near freezing across all of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota tonight into Wednesday morning. Freeze warning out for all but parts of west central Minnesota, which have a frost advisory. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper trough axis currently over the Red River Valley will pull east into the western Great Lakes tonight. The high pressure centered over the western Plains currently will shift into the upper midwest tonight. Another trough will be digging into the Rockies tomorrow night into Thursday, so westerly flow will quickly shift back to southwesterly. The upper trough to our west splits into a northern and southern branch, and ensemble members vary a bit on how exactly they handle it as it moves east. Most solutions do push the trough east over the weekend, with ridging building into the Plains by Memorial Day. Details such as precipitation timing and placement with the trough are low confidence, but there seems to be good agreement on below average temperatures becoming near to above average by the end of the period. ...Frost and freeze headlines... Clouds should clear out as the upper trough moves east, and with high pressure overhead, winds will become light and variable overnight. There will be a good setup for radiational cooling, and dew points currently in the low 30s over southern Manitoba should be down in our area by tonight. Temps should drop to near or below the freezing mark in most locations, with a 60 to 90 percent chance of 32 or lower for much of eastern ND into northwestern MN. Probabilities of less than 32 are much lower for some reason in west central MN from Elbow Lake up to Detroit Lakes, with chances 20 percent or less.Kept Grant, Otter Tail, and western Becker as frost advisory but have the rest of the CWA in a Freeze Warning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Lingering MVFR ceilings and some scattered light showers/sprinkles will continue into early afternoon. Showers could impact a few of the TAF sites, but mostly just brief light rain and not any reductions to visibility. Should see some improvement to VFR by late afternoon or evening, then clearing out completely later tonight. Winds that are gusting above 20 kts at some airports will diminish, becoming light and variable overnight. The ND airports should see winds start to pick up out of the south to southeast by tomorrow mid-day. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-028-029-032. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ027-030- 031-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR  697 FXUS64 KAMA 191912 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Wednesday and extending through Saturday. Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out some of these days. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 As we come off of a very active stretch of fire weather, the rest of today is a chance for the Panhandles to take a deep breath and enjoy decreasing winds and beautiful spring temperatures. North winds will turn out of the east this evening and die down closer to 10 mph overnight. These east winds will begin the process of advecting low level moisture to the area (40s-50s dew points), which could cause some low clouds and perhaps thin, patchy fog to develop tomorrow morning. Wednesday into Wed night has the potential to bring beneficial rainfall to portions of the Panhandles, but also has the potential for many locations to miss out on the moisture entirely. Although conditions will become more favorable for rain and storms, the margin for error is small, and there are a handful of factors that could lead to a disappointing outcome for much of the area. Southwest flow aloft will settle atop the Plains, drawing improved theta-e to the region thanks to troughing over the western CONUS. Cooler temperatures from morning cloud cover will keep better atmospheric saturation within the swath of higher moisture content, which is most favored across the southern Panhandle and eastern New Mexico initially. Many models depict a corridor of dry air existing over the central to western Panhandles, which may inhibit convective development until better moisture fills in overnight with the arrival of a subtle shortwave disturbance. Some CAMs on the other hand suggest convection off the higher terrain will struggle to survive the trip into this dry air, while others believe new convection will form over the heart of our CWA later tomorrow evening. All this goes to say, we unfortunately will have to wait and see where moisture is situated along with the upper disturbance, as well as how convection evolves before placing higher confidence in storm chances. Even if rain survives, it is likely going to be scattered and "hit or miss" in nature rather than widespread (30-60% POPs). Instability will be modest (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE), which could support storms becoming strong-severe with hail and gusty winds. Showers and storms may become more widespread across the eastern Panhandles overnight into Thursday morning where higher PWATs >1" will be present, and would be better favored to produce beneficial rainfall >0.5". Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Ensemble outputs depict additional rounds of systems approaching the Panhandles into next week thanks to persistent troughing to our west, with decent potential to provide shower and storm opportunities daily. Thursday's rain/storm chances would likely be conditional based on Wed night activity, but could be conducive for additional strong-severe storms if the atmosphere is able to recover from morning convection across the northern and eastern combined Panhandles. Friday is another day we are monitoring for increased storm potential, especially across the eastern Panhandles where boundary interactions combined with increased moisture, instability, and large scale lift may create an environment worth monitoring for severe weather. The synoptic pattern is more uncertain beyond Friday, but there is a signal for a relatively wetter pattern tocontinue. One bonus to the forecast pattern regardless of rain chances, is the the return to near average temperatures to end the month. After the anomalously hot, windy, and dry stretch we've been in, the outlook of lighter winds, cooler temperatures, and higher humidity should provide an extremely welcomed reprieve from fire weather concerns. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Winds will decrease out of the east tonight, becoming southeasterly tomorrow at 10-15 kts. MVFR to IFR ceilings will return to all sites overnight through tomorrow morning. Brief instances of LIFR ceilings can't be ruled out and may need to be included in future issuances. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38  793 FXUS64 KFWD 191914 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold front on Tuesday across much of North and Central TX. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue Wednesday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A relatively active pattern is starting to take shape over North and Central Texas for the next several days. A cold front is currently moving through North Texas that has a somewhat impressive temperature gradient associated with it. The temperature in Bowie is in the mid 50s, while the remainder of the CWA ahead of the front has temperatures in the 80s to low 90s. Expect the front to slowly move south this afternoon and eventually stall south of I-20 this evening. Additional outflow boundaries should allow for a few storms to develop across Western Central Texas later in the day, ahead of the front. In addition, a strong and fast-moving outflow boundary is moving south across eastern North Texas. Although this boundary is not the aforementioned cold front, it is still providing sufficient lift to produce scattered showers and storms along and behind the boundary. We're also monitoring the area east of I-35 and south of I- 20 where additional disorganized showers and storms may develop in association with a remnant MCV over the Brazos Valley. The pre-frontal airmass is very moist and unstable, with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s across most of the area. Instability aloft varies quite a bit across the region. The most unstable airmass resides over western Central Texas with MLCAPE values around 4000+ J/kg. Most of North Texas is still unstable with MLCAPE values around 3000 or so, but the 18Z FWD RAOB sounding indicates that lapse rates aloft are not as impressive as they were earlier today, falling from 8.9 degC/km to only 7.2. Areas where MCV convection is possible are even more stable with MLCAPE values only around 1500. The convection today has been and will continue to be disorganized at best. For starters, the cold front is very shallow, so it is undercutting the warm and humid air, forcing the updrafts to go up well behind the boundary and lose access to the warm/unstable air in short-order. Once the storms are able to develop, the deep-layer shear is unfavorable for organized convection. The sheer amount of instability will maintain our severe threat through the afternoon and evening, but the threat will be isolated and dependent on individual updrafts organizing instead of using the background environment. The main threats continue to be large hail and damaging wind gusts, mainly for areas south of I-20 and west of I-35. To our west, a cluster of storms has developed near San Angelo that will continue through the afternoon/evening. The cluster should merge into a nocturnal MCS that takes a turn east-southeast toward our Central Texas counties overnight. Depending on how far north the storms develop, they may move into our Western Central Texas counties around midnight, or they may just skirt our counties just to the south. There may be an isolated damaging wind gust with this activity, but the severe threat should be lower by this time. While not mentioned in the discussion above...the very warm airmass is allowing for efficient rainfall today. While we haven't observed any significant flooding, some areas have already received over 2" of rain today. Expect ponding on roadways and minor flooding of typical flood-prone locations with most storms today. There will be an increased risk of flash flooding for areas that have intersecting boundaries, where multiple updrafts can develop in the same area simultaneously. The cold front will remain stalled over North and Central Texas tomorrow, but start to wash out as southerly flow starts to take over in the afternoon. In addition, a weak mid-level shortwave will start to move across the state, triggering additional showers and storms late in the day into the evening. Instability looks to be much weaker tomorrow, with little threat of strong or severe storms. This would allow for the rare occurrence of beneficial spring-time rainfall with little risk of severe weather. The counter, however is that the airmass will still be capable of producing very efficient rain-making downdrafts. If storms are able to form along the stalled front and train in locations that received heavy rain today, there would be an increased risk of flash flooding. Pinpointing where these features will be is futile given the weak forcing aloft, so I would consider this a very low confidence forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The surface boundary should almost completely lift north by Thursday as a more organized mid- and upper-level system is forecast to move across the Southern Plains. This should trigger an additional round of showers and storms across the region Thursday into Friday. Limited instability and shear will keep the severe threat very low, but the flood threat will be ratcheted up, particularly for localized areas that receive heavy rain multiple days in a row. Southwest winds aloft will remain in place through the weekend, with some of the global guidance bringing in cut off low features into early next week. While we are not confident of exactly how the forecast will pan out in the extended-range, the chance of beneficial rainfall across the region will continue through the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is moving through D10, bringing a sharp NW wind shift over the next couple hours. 30-60 minutes behind the wind shift, thunderstorms are expected to develop. The storms are gradually moving ENE. Expect storms INVOF the D10 terminals through at least 22-23Z before moving E and S. There is a chance that storms linger a few hours beyond that, but decided to keep the forecast a little more optimistic at this time. Gusty and erratic winds are expected with any storm today! Once the storms move E and S, north winds are forecast to prevail with a scattering of low clouds. We are not confident if the clouds will be MVFR or VFR, so kept ILS ceilings in the forecast with a SCT MVFR deck. A nocturnal MCS is also forecast to move across Central or South Texas tonight. It should remain south of D10, but may impact ACT in the early morning hours. We have MVFR ceilings in the forecast at all terminals tomorrow morning, but there is a chance the ceilings fall to IFR with some visibility restrictions as well. We will leave those details to be added in future TAFs. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 66 81 67 / 90 30 30 60 Waco 86 67 80 67 / 90 60 30 60 Paris 82 65 80 65 / 90 40 30 50 Denton 83 63 79 65 / 90 30 30 60 McKinney 84 64 80 66 / 90 30 30 60 Dallas 86 67 82 67 / 90 30 30 60 Terrell 85 66 81 66 / 90 40 30 60 Corsicana 87 67 83 69 / 90 50 30 60 Temple 88 66 81 68 / 80 70 40 60 Mineral Wells 85 62 78 63 / 90 50 30 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...Bonnette  774 FXUS64 KOUN 191914 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through early next week. - Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next week. A few strong storms may be possible late this week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front has moved through all except the southeastern part of the forecast area, and the significant thunderstorms have moved out. But winds above the frontal boundary continue to be south/southwesterly and isentropic lift is developing around the 295K/300K surfaces. A few showers are beginning to develop this afternoon and are expected to increase as the southerly flow above the front (and therefore the isentropic lift) increases this tonight. Most models (the NAM being the exception) show very little elevated instability, so severe weather is not expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Rain chances decrease early Wednesday as the isentropic lift decreases. But then shower/storm chances will increase Wednesday evening and especially Thursday as a mid-level trough approaches. Rainfall looks to be widespread on Thursday with this system. We will still be in this cooler post-frontal airmass, so no surface instability is expected and severe weather potential is low. Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east Thursday night as the trough moves to the east. High temperatures will be cool both Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A subtropical jet, with perturbations within the broader mid-level flow, will overspread the southern Plains through next weekend. This continuous mid-level flow will support daily thunderstorm chances through the weekend across our area. At this time, there is low confidence in severe weather during this timeframe. Temperatures will continue to be closer to seasonable through early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front is through all TAF sites with north northeast winds expected through the period. Breezy winds will diminish through the day with wind speeds less than 15 knots by the afternoon. Showers and storms are lingering through across portions of central into southeast Oklahoma. Additional scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may develop later this evening and into the overnight hours. Confidence is low on the exact location of the scattered showers, along with the probability for thunder chances. Thus, the current TAF issuance includes PROB30s for showers and/or storms at all sites except WWR/DUA where chances and confidence were even lower. Amendments will be made where necessary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 54 70 58 71 / 60 20 60 90 Hobart OK 52 73 56 73 / 50 20 80 80 Wichita Falls TX 56 76 60 76 / 60 30 80 80 Gage OK 46 70 51 69 / 0 20 80 80 Ponca City OK 52 67 55 70 / 40 10 60 80 Durant OK 62 78 65 76 / 40 30 50 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...23  905 FXUS64 KCRP 191916 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 216 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Dangerous swimming conditions with a high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms tonight into tomorrow morning - Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Flash Flooding due to excessive rainfall tonight through && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Another shortwave will move into the region from Mexico tonight around midnight. This feature will interact with a cold front moving into the area that has been primed with moisture, thanks to a strong low level jet. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight along with the potential for heavy rain. It should enter the Brush Country around midnight and move into the Coastal Plains to Coastal Bend around 03-06 AM tomorrow morning. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as the primary threat followed by hail. Likewise, with the soils primed from last nights MCS, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the southern half of the CWA under Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding with a Slight Risk for the northern counties. As we move further into the week, a series of shortwaves are expected to continue moving into the region producing periods of moderate to heavy through Sunday night. With that being said, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal to Slight Risk of Flash Flooding Wednesday and Thursday and a Marginal Risk for all of South Texas Thursday and Friday. Current rainfall accumulations expected from tonight through Sunday night are 3.5-5" across the western half and 3.5-6" across the eastern half, with the highest total expected across the Victoria Crossroads. Some areas could see isolated higher amounts. Please continue to check the forecast for updated as the next few days evolve. Persistent strong onshore flow with swell periods of 7-8 seconds warrants a high risk of rip currents, causing dangerous swimming conditions. These conditions will also lead to another threat for minor coastal flooding early tomorrow morning during high tide. We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day with MVFR ceilings creeping back into the forecast between 02-05z. Showers and thunderstorms are expected between 06-08z out west and 09-11z across the eastern half. Any storm that develops will have the potential to become severe with strong winds as the primary hazard. Rain chances will quickly taper off after 12z. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A fresh breeze (BF 5) is expected to continue through this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Winds will relax to a moderate breeze (BF 4) Tuesday night and continue through the end of the work week. Medium chances (50-65%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60-80%) Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 89 77 87 / 60 30 20 80 Victoria 73 87 73 84 / 70 30 20 90 Laredo 74 92 72 89 / 60 20 60 50 Alice 75 90 74 88 / 70 30 30 70 Rockport 78 89 78 88 / 70 30 20 80 Cotulla 72 89 72 87 / 70 40 70 70Kingsville 77 89 76 87 / 50 20 30 70 Navy Corpus 79 86 78 86 / 50 30 20 80 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ245- 343>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...JCP/84  051 FXUS63 KBIS 191922 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 222 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain well below normal through tonight when lows could fall to near or below freezing across much of eastern and central North Dakota. - Slightly warmer Wednesday through Friday, with medium chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms beginning Wednesday evening. - Above normal temperatures favored this weekend and especially early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough continues to dig across Western CONUS locking in a cooler airmass across the Plains. Surface high pressure continues to move overhead. This will help clear skies this afternoon and lead to cool overnight temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s to 60s across the area. Clear skies and radiational cooling are forecast to lead to low temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s. There is a good shot of freeze and frost occurring tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern and parts of central North Dakota while a Frost Advisory has been issued across parts for southwestern and central North Dakota. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s and 70s. Wind will shift from northwesterly tonight to southeasterly tomorrow as surface high pressure shifts off to the southeast in Minnesota and surface low pressure moves into eastern Montana. This will lead to breezy conditions across the central and eastern half of the state by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into the northwest by the afternoon hours as an upper level wave approaches the region. An upper level low is forecast to stall out over southern Saskatchewan Thursday and Friday. Cyclonic flow aloft will usher in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms until the end of the week. There is around 70 percent chance that that portions of western and central North Dakota could see up to 0.25 of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This cooler pattern will keep temperatures in the 60s to 70s daily until warming up by the weekend. The NBM 25th percentile begins to push the upper 70s to lower 80s and the NBM 75th percentile has lower 90s. There is fairly high confidence for warm weather to start off next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Conditions will continue to clear out this afternoon across the state. VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Winds will switch from northwesterly to southeasterly by tomorrow with gusty conditions by the afternoon hours. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ003-004-012-019-020-022-035-041-042-044- 055>062. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ005-013- 023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Johnson  141 FXUS61 KCLE 191924 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 324 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for western counties until 7PM this evening. Some convection has begun to develop upstream of the area and is expected to move into the destabilizing area across NW OH. Current temperatures have surged into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. The primary concern remains strong winds. Will need to continue to monitor conditions further east to determine if any expansion is needed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The entire area remains highlighted in Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. Primary threat remains strong winds, although localized heavy rainfall and small hail are possible. 2) A big cool down is on the way for Wednesday and Thursday as high moves into the area. 3) An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... This afternoon, a few light showers continue to linger across far NEOH and NWPA, keeping cloud cover over that portion of the area and limiting keeping destabilization at a minimum right now. However, across western counties, cloud decks have scattered out and temperatures have quickly rose into the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, trending towards the low 70s. This has allowed for rapid destabilization with modeled soundings suggesting SB CAPE already in the 2000-2500 J/kg range and steepening low level lapse rates close to 8 C/km. The best shear with this event should remain north of the area with bulk shear values in the 15-25 knot range. Given these environmental conditions, would not be surprised to see some isolated storms develop this afternoon ahead of a main line expected to push east later this evening. DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg add confidence that the primary hazard concern with any convection with be strong to damaging winds. Cannot rule out some small hail, especially in the discrete cells ahead of the primary line. The tornado threat remains very low, although not zero, given the best shear is to the north of the area. Any quick spin ups that do occur would likely be embedded within the line of convection this evening. The final concern is locally heavy rainfall, especially in the most developed cells, that could lead to localized ponding on area roads. Modeled soundings suggest that brief training of cells could occur this evening along the boundary which would coincide in timing with an increased warm cloud layer and PWAT push. Overall concern for widespread flooding this evening remains low, but to highlight the potential WPC has included the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) ERO today. KEY MESSAGE 2... Late tonight, a strong cold front is expected to move east across the area, marking a transition back to much cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be nearly 20 degrees cooler compared to today, only climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s as 850mb of 5-7C nudge south over the area. Some lingering showers will be possible across the southern tier of counties on Wednesday before the cold front fully pushes south and high pressure dries everything out through Thursday. Unfortunately, that means that Wednesday will be rather dreary as cloud coverage across the area lingers before peaks of sunshine return on Thursday. To compliment daytime highs, overnight lows Wednesday night will fall into the low to mid 40s and into the upper 40s to low 50s Thursday night. At this point, there is no concern for a late season frost. KEY MESSAGE 3... The upcoming holiday weekend will be fairly unsettled as multiple shortwave troughs push east across the region, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area as a near stationary boundary settles somewhere near the CWA. Initially, this boundary on Friday should begin to push north of the area, marking a transition back to warmer and more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Then this boundary will ebb and flow over the CWA as the aforementioned troughs push east. As moisture increases over the area, multiple rounds of rainfall, potentially heavy at times, will result in possible flood concerns across area rivers and potential aerial flooding where rain persists. WPC has already highlighted the area in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. The thunder potential should be isolated to daytime hours as diurnal instability adds additional support for shower development, but any severe potential remains uncertain at this time. Highs throughout the weekend will be in the 70s with mild overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Better chance of convective activity hitting all terminals in this forecast compared to this time yesterday as thunderstorms set to develop west of the area around 20Z and spread eastward. Strong wind gusts in storms expected with IFR as well from reductions in visibilities in ongoing storms. Ahead of this, southwest winds will gust 20-30kts at the surface. A cold front will trail the convection tonight, switching winds around from the southwest to the northwest, and then eventually the northeast heading into Wednesday. Ceilings lower in the wake of the cold front to MVFR, with some IFR possible at MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic showers late Friday through Saturday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds gusting 20-30kts over the western basin and 15-25kts over the central and eastern basins ahead of a strong cold front that will come through later this evening/tonight. At that point, winds will come onshore in the wake of that front, northwesterly 10-15kts later tonight, and then northeasterly Wednesday into Wednesday night 10-15kts, and then 15-20kts Thursday through Friday night. Small Craft Advisories may be needed in these northeasterly winds for the middle and end of the week. Winds variable around 10kts for the weekend. && .CLIMATE... A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday. High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations again. The following are the records for May 19. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...26 MARINE...26  281 FXUS61 KLWX 191929 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 329 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Nothing. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the Shenandoah River Valley along a lee-side trof in a hot unstable air mass. These thunderstorms will track to the ENE around 10 kt reaching the metros after 5 PM and dissipating by 9 PM, if not sooner. Warm and muggy night on tap with lows in the 70s. A lee-side trof will develop Wed afternoon well ahead of a strong cold front expected to move through the area late Wed night. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon into the early evening with a threat of mainly downburst winds given very hot and unstable air mass. Believe there will be enough coverage of severe thunderstorms for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued. Convection should start to wane after 9 PM, but showers could linger well into the overnight as cdfnt crosses the area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The synoptic scale pattern will remain relatively stagnant through the long term period, with weak upper troughing off to our west over the Ohio Valley, and surface high pressure off to our north and northeast. This will lead to a pattern where marine influence low- level easterly flow is nearly continuously overrun by south to southwesterly flow aloft. This persistent warm advection regime aloft atop stable low-level air will lead to cloudy skies with on and off showers Thursday through Monday. This will bring much needed, beneficial rains to the forecast area, with ensemble means showing around one to two inches of rain across much of the forecast area during that time. Highs Thursday will take a 25 to 30 degree dive behind the front with many locations struggling to push 70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to run below normal on Friday, struggling to make it into the 60s. Ensemble guidance shows much larger spread in temperatures Saturday through Monday, with some solutions keeping us locked into low cloud cover and temperatures in the 50s/60s, while some other solutions try to break us out of the low clouds, causing temperatures to climb into the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prob30 group added for all terminals this afternoon mainly between 20Z-00Z. Numerous showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon. Some low CIGS may hang on through Wednesday night before lifting Thursday as the front sits south of the region. Periodic rain showers moving through the region on Thursday afternoon and evening bring additional sub-VFR periods at terminals Wind gusts could reach 15-20 knots on Thursday before gradually decreasing. Sub-VFR conditions appear likely on Friday and Saturday in association with low clouds and showers. Winds will generally be out of the east to southeast on both Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... SCA southerly channeling can be expected again this afternoon and evening. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest with gusts up to 25 kts. Winds may near low-end SCA levels in south to southwesterly flow on Wednesday, and then again in northerly flow on Thursday. SMWs appear possible Wednesday into Wednesday night as thunderstorms move over the waters. East to southeasterly winds may near low-end SCA levels late Thursday through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Here are some daily temperature records during the May 19-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)! Washington-Dulles (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+! Baltimore (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962) Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)! Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997) Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)! Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+! ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ534-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/KJP AVIATION...LFR MARINE...LFR  383 FXUS63 KJKL 191931 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 331 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 201 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Isolated showers have developed over portions of eastern Kentucky early this afternoon with a few thunderstorms even noted over Central/Northern Kentucky. The expectation is for isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through the afternoon, best chances toward Central Kentucky. With greater cloud cover, temperatures have struggled to rise, so today's forecast maximum temperatures have been lowered a few degrees, mainly mid to upper 80s to near 90F across the lower elevations. UPDATE Issued at 1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Another very warm late spring day is underway across eastern Kentucky with temperatures already in the 70s to around 80F on their way to around 90F. Some isolated convection is still possible near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, only minor revisions were made to bring T/Td/Sky forecast into line with hourly observations. UPDATE Issued at 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 An update is out with minor revisions to hourly Sky and PoPs through this evening based on observed and model trends. Also updated latest hourly T/Td/Sky grids. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Upper ridging will gradually get nudged southeast through Wednesday as a cold front reaches the area and begins to stall near or over the area Wednesday afternoon. This stalling, or at least slowing down, of the cold front occurs as the upper flow becomes parallel to the cold front orientation. PoPs gradually increase from the west through Wednesday as the front approaches. Most if not all of the forecast area will stay dry today with the ridging trying to hold tough to the east and southeast while the front slowly makes progress, with highest chances at showers or a thunderstorm in the Bluegrass region. Chances for rain increase into the evening and overnight as mid- level heights begin to gradually fall, as shortwaves move up the Ohio River Valley, mostly but not completely skirting Eastern Kentucky. If a storm, or storms, were to reach the forecast area late this afternoon into this evening, there is sufficient shear and possibly instability to support an isolated severe storm in the Bluegrass region. The front reaches the CWA from the northwest late Wednesday afternoon, with a mid-level speed max of 35 to 45 kts developing during the day just north of the area possibly providing enough shear for an isolated strong to severe storm in the afternoon should sufficient instability exists, which looks likely at this time. The SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook expands the Marginal Risk into far eastern parts of the forecast area, but future outlooks may extend that further into the forecast area based on the forecast evolution and placement of this mid-level speed max. Highs will again threaten records in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, but temperatures will begin to trend lower as humidity and rain chances increase from the west and northwest for Wednesday, with current forecasts suggesting lower to mid 80s across the area, warmest in the Upper Big Sandy Basin where rain is likely to hold off the longest into the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 The forecast period begins with the region situated on the backside of a departing cold front. Although the boundary will be sagging southward, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the area. Given marginal instability and weak kinematic profiles, severe weather is not anticipated, and activity should remain largely garden-variety. Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover will suppress daytime heating, keeping afternoon highs on the cooler side. Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 70s across the northern portions of the area, while areas along the Tennessee border should top out in the upper 70s. Overnight lows for Thursday into Friday morning will remain mild as a quasi-stationary boundary begins to lift northward as a warm front, initiating a warming trend. This warm front will cross the region on Friday, serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This wet pattern will persist through the weekend as precipitable water values climb well above 1.50 inches within a deep moisture profile characterized by a skinny CAPE distribution. Furthermore, ECMWF Shift of Tails (SoT) values are progged to approach 0.8 on Friday before exceeding 0.8 Sunday into Monday. For context, a SoT greater than 0.8 is highly indicative of an unusual event relative to the climatological norm. As Fridays synoptic evolution locks the region into a pattern supportive of repeated training rounds of convection, this event may ultimately be classified as climatologically anomalous. An analysis of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble systems reveals strong model consensus, with nearly all Total QPF members indicating that rainfall totals upwards of 3.00 inches are possible through Monday morning. The current deterministic forecast package projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area. Locations along the West Virginia and Virginia borders will likely see lower totals due to local downsloping effects. Once the stalled boundary finally shifts eastward on Monday, another surface low is progged to develop and track northeastward into the area. This system will bring a secondary round of showers and storms, keeping the region wet through the remainder of the forecast period. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift away from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks toward a much wetter synoptic setup. While the expected heavy rainfall will help reduce the current precipitation deficit, overall totals will still track below normal for this time of year. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours, but will deteriorate gradually from the northwest through the period with the approach of a cold front. Look for an extensive cumulus field this afternoon with PROB30 groups to account for the low potential of diurnally driven shower activity. Additional probabilities are noted later tonight and on Wednesday as the cold front nears. Winds will be the south to southwest at 6 to 13 kts again with some gusts of 15 to 20 kts forthis afternoon, highest at KSYM and KIOB. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will see a variable to southerly wind around 5 kts or so. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GEERTSON  342 FXUS63 KLBF 191930 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances increase Wednesday and then again Thursday night into Friday. Some decent rainfall amounts, possibly over one- half inch are possible in spots. - A warming trend is then expected through the weekend. Highs will climb from the 70s Sunday into the 80s Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure will settle southward across Minnesota and Iowa tonight into Wednesday morning. Aloft, southwest flow will be dominate across the region ahead of a shortwave crossing the Intermountain West. Have issued a frost advisory for portions of north central Nebraska late tonight till just after sunrise Wednesday morning. This area will be the last to see an increase in cloudiness as the shortwave approaches the area late tonight. The increase in cloud should keep the rest of the area in the mid to upper 30s and frost free. As mentioned, clouds will increase, and will be a cloudy day Wednesday. Rain chances will also be on the increase. As the shortwave trough approaches from the west, mid-level WAA will be on the increase. An area of mid-level FGEN also develops, and should see a northeast to southwest band of light to perhaps briefly moderate rain develop in the morning and then begin to decrease by later in the afternoon as the FGEN weakens. As for amounts, fairly high probabilities of one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch. This would most favor southwest Nebraska. Skies clear some as the shortwave moves east of the area Wednesday night. At this time, looks like temperatures will remain above any frost potential. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The next system is already on the horizon Thursday through Friday. The probability of seeing some decent rainfall amounts is on the increase. This is supported by both the 19/12Z NAM and ECMWF which dig a negatively tilted trough farther southward into Colorado Thursday night, and then pivots northeastward across the Central Plains Friday. Looking at the various ensemble suites, confidence is high in much of the area receiving at least one-quarter of an inch, with some locations likely to exceed one-half inch of rainfall. System weakens across the area Saturday with a subtle upper trough still located over the area. Lingering cloud cover and a few isolated showers will start the Memorial Day weekend. Ridging aloft then builds across the area Sunday into Monday with a couple of very nice days expected Sunday into Monday. In fact, will become quite warm by Monday, as highs climb from the lower 80s Sunday and into mid and upper 80s Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through tonight across all of western and north central Nebraska. A weather disturbance will approach the area tonight, with showers developing across portions of the Sandhills and especially southwest Nebraska Wednesday morning. Surface winds will be north today, becoming south on Wednesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ006-007- 009-010-028-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Taylor  457 FXUS61 KGYX 191933 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 333 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Shower and thunderstorm coverage continues to wane for Wednesday. A cold front moving through the forecast area has been trending quicker, limiting Wednesday's high temperatures as well as potential for precipitation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Showers and thunderstorms continue through early evening. Gusty to damaging winds are the primary threat with any strong to severe storms. 2. Temperatures again rise into the upper 80s for much of the coast and interior, but highs are not expected to be as hot as Tuesday. A cold front moves through the area, with a quick cool down for Wednesday night. 3. The second-half of the week will feature cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Unsettled weather is possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through the forecast area this afternoon and early evening. The environment has been unstable since morning surface inversion mixed out. The rapid rise in temperatures this morning was a telltale sign of this, and a building cu field has been indicative of some forcing and low level moisture arriving to the west. General model consensus has been 1000-1500 j/kg of SBCAPE, with a intermittent field of 30kts of 0-3 and 0-6km shear. Amid this, low level lapse rates are very high, 8 to 9 c/km. However WAA through the mid levels are limiting mid level rates to around 5 or 6 c/km. This and forcing are the two items holding us back from stronger confidence/wording as for a severe threat. This limits coverage, but still worth to mention the isolated strong to severe storms through early evening. Two areas of focus for showers/storms this afternoon, mentioned previously, still hold. One is a potential linear segment or complex of multicells forecast to move through southern NH, and another towards the Midcoast. Would expect storms to feature lightning and gusty to damaging winds as the primary threats through early evening. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Unless quenched by a passing shower, temperatures will be slow to lower through the evening. SW breeze continues overnight, and this will keep the low levels mixed, limiting further decoupling. Overnight lows may only fall into the upper 60s to around 70 for a portion of southern NH and through the ME Lakes Region. This offers little overnight recovery after a day that saw many highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday's high temperature forecast remains on track at being not as warm as Tuesday. This is largely due to the very warm low level airmass shifting east, and a cold front impinging on the forecast area from the NW. Even still, a second consecutive day of highs in the upper 80s to around 90 is expected. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A much cooler airmass arrives behind Wednesday's cold front. 850 mb temperatures will crash to near or below 0C for the northern half of the forecast area, indicating a seasonably strong cold front. High pressure will crest over the region on Friday, allowing for a tranquil end to the week. While it will be rather cool airmass aloft, strong surface heating should support deep mixing up to 850 mb on both Thursday and Friday. Afternoon highs should still recover to the 60s both days in the warm spots, with 50s in the north/mountains. Generally light winds combined with ample sunshine should make for a pleasant two days. By this weekend the upper-air configuration will shift as the high pressure shifts northeast out of the area, and a low pressure begins lifting towards New England from the central U.S. Key uncertainties at this timeframe are the position and strength of the high pressure, and if/whenit can suppress precipitation south of Maine/New Hampshire. Model spread remains high at this range leading to uncertain impacts, but a general theme of increasing precipitation chances appears likely as we head deeper into the weekend. Finally, with the placement of low pressure to the southwest and high pressure to the northeast, temperatures may trend cooler with time given cloud cover and onshore flow off the chilly waters. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...SHRA and some TS remain in the forecast through 00z at most terminals. VFR is expected outside of these, but rain could cause brief MVFR vis. Focus for convection will be across southern NH terminals and towards AUG/RKD. These will move off the coast this evening, ending precip chances at 00z. A period of LLWS is expected tonight as surface winds weaken. Chance of fog or low stratus again tonight for coastal terminals, mainly RKD. Gusts increase again Wednesday morning, with the chance of SHRA for southern NH terminals and PWM. Expect a NW wind shift through the day. Outlook... Wednesday Night through Friday Night: VFR expected with daytime gusts 15 to 20 kts. Saturday and Saturday night: Increasing RA chances SW to NE, there remains uncertainty on exact timing. MVFR to IFR cigs may result. && .MARINE... A few rounds of showers or thunderstorms will near the coastal waters late this afternoon. These should generally be weakening over the waters, but lightning and isolated strong winds will be possible. Otherwise, wave heights will slowly begin to increase through the evening, 3 to 6 ft, mainly towards the ME Midcoast. These are set to linger through the day Wednesday, subsiding as winds shift from a passing cold front. Strong high pressure then moves over the region for late week, resulting in mainly conditions below SCA over the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for NHZ013-014. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ012>015. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Cornwell AVIATION...Cornwell  431 FXUS62 KMLB 191932 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 332 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Continued high risk for life-threatening rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! - Humidity increases late week into the weekend, leading to heat index values near or above 100 degrees. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast across east central Florida. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue each day, moving inland toward the west Florida coast by the afternoon and evening. Overall, many locations will stay dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Now-Tonight...Isolated, east-to-west-moving showers are developing this afternoon in the presence of 1.5-1.6" PW (GOES imagery). Some cells have produced lightning, more so after reaching interior portions of east-central Florida (north side of Lake Okeechobee and northwest of Orlando). About 400 miles to the east of Cape Canaveral, satellite imagery clearly outlines a spinning upper low and weak surface trough. Persistent easterlies, sufficient moisture, and perhaps a small influence from this offshore feature are even supporting isolated shower development at the coast as of 2 PM. CAMs have struggled to resolve this shallow-layer precipitation for the last 24 hours, so decided to update the forecast with a low rain chance over the waters and immediate coast through tonight into Wednesday morning. Rain will be hit or miss for most locations with the greatest chances (30%) focused well inland. Any deeper convection is expected along the west coast of FL into this evening. Overnight lows settle into the low 70s inland but will remain in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. At the beaches, a high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged! Wednesday-Tuesday (modified)...The surface ridge remains over the western Atlantic through the period, with its axis stretched generally towards the Carolinas into the weekend. Aloft, the aforementioned mid to upper level low drifts towards the east coast of Florida through Thursday-Friday before it weakens and ridging restrengthens this weekend into next week. Overall, little change is expected to the Florida peninsula's weather pattern over the next seven days. East to southeast flow increases to around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each afternoon, especially behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours, occasionally drifting onshore, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Then, convection focuses over the interior or western half of the peninsula, with the greatest coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze collision in the late afternoon and evening. Rain chances are generally 15-30% through the rest of the work week before moisture increases a bit this weekend. Rain chances tick upward toward 30-50%, but again, not everywhere will see measurable rainfall. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday before increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures reduce that threat into the weekend. Onshore flow keeps high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. However, this will also lead to overnight lows remaining in the mid/upper 70s, at times even near 80 along the immediate coast. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which creep into the upper 90s to low 100s. Humid conditions and little relief overnight will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk and even a developing Major HeatRisk for several ECFL locations (including the Orlando metro). Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks in an air-conditioned space. A high risk or high-end moderate risk for rip currents looks to continue through the week into the weekend, thanks to onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 East-southeasterly flow continues with largely favorable boating conditions this week into the weekend. Moderate breezes with occasional gusts 15-20 kt are forecast each day, along with isolated/scattered shower and lightning storm chances. The greater risk for rain and storms will be over the FL Peninsula as the east coast breeze moves westward in the afternoon/evening. However, shallow, low-level moisture will support at least isolated showers through the weekend. Seas generally 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft occasionally well offshore. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Widely scattered VCSH ongoing this afternoon, mainly across the interior moving westward with the inland moving sea breeze. VCSH for all interior sites and TIX-DAB this afternoon. Will closely monitor for need of short fused TEMPOs this afternoon. But as of now, do not have any TEMPOs, and handling with VC wording. East winds 12-15 KT this afternoon with locally higher gusts will decrease to around 5 KT overnight. East to east-southeast winds will increase to around 10 KT by 14Z and then increase to 8-12 KT with gusts to around 20 KT in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Much like today, scattered showers will be moving onshore through the morning/early afternoon before transitioning to interior with the inland moving sea breeze in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 87 72 89 / 20 20 0 10 MCO 71 91 72 91 / 0 30 10 30 MLB 76 86 76 88 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 75 87 75 88 / 20 20 10 20 LEE 71 91 72 92 / 0 20 10 20 SFB 71 91 72 92 / 0 30 10 30 ORL 72 91 72 91 / 0 30 10 30 FPR 74 87 74 88 / 20 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Watson  421 FXUS63 KABR 191931 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 231 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/freeze expected early Wednesday morning across the region as lows drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. - Rainfall chances increase to 60-70% on Friday. Amounts generally between 0.25-0.75in and very limited threat for severe storms. - Turning warmer late weekend/early next week, about 10 to 20 degrees above normal with highs in the 80s to near 90. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Plenty of stratocumulus clouds remain across the CWA this afternoon, but with high pressure and drier air working into the region into this evening, expect gradual clearing from west to east. Winds will also become light and variable this evening before switching to the south-southeast late tonight. Rather good radiational cooling conditions setting up tonight, especially over the eastern CWA. Expecting temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across most of the CWA, so will therefore stick with the frost/freeze headlines. Frost advisories were buffered around the original Freeze Warning. On Wednesday, surface high moves east into MN while a surface trough takes shape over eastern MT and WY. This will tighten the pressure gradient across SD, especially central SD where southerly winds are likely to gust between 30 and 40 mph by late morning. Don't see a need for an advisory at this point as even NBM90 wind gusts are below 45 mph. Focus then shifts to the approaching upper trough and associated surface trough/low that moves into the region Thursday night through Friday. Models starting to come into better agreement with increasing chances (60-70%) for rainfall across the region. Instability looks somewhat limited though and SPC outlook, as well as ML outlooks don't highlight any severe storm potential over the Northern Plains. As for rainfall amounts, NBM mean-75th spreads in a 48-hr time frame ending at 12Z Saturday generally range from around 0.30in to 0.75in. Warming trend still showing up in the models towards the latter half of the weekend into early next week as Grand Ensemble 850mb temps increase to around +15C to +18C across the CWA during this time. Inherited NBM high temps are in the 80s Sunday through at least Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG CIGs have generally improved to VFR early this afternoon and are expected to remain that way through the remainder of the day before SKC conditions take over tonight. Light winds tonight will increase from the south on Wednesday with gusts close to 30 knots across central SD (KPIR/KMBG). && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003-015-033-045-048. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ004>011- 016>023-034>037-051. MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ039-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMT AVIATION...TMT  492 FXUS63 KEAX 191934 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 234 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of flooding along rivers and low lying areas continue. Many rivers should recede back below flood stage by the end of the week*. *Dependent on precipitation forecasts. - A cooler quieter pattern sets in for the next couple days. Warmer temperatures and precipitation chances return Thursday night into Friday (40% to 80%) with intermittent precipitation chances continuing through the weekend (20% to 30%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Overcast skies and drizzle dominate Tuesday across the region. A saturated low layer leftover from Monday night's storms and a notable inversion aloft keep misty conditions around until incremental bits of solar heating eventually make their way toward the surface heating up the air just enough to dissipate fog and mist later this afternoon. The compression under the inversion also keeps north winds fairly gusty around 15-25 MPH. Cooler and slightly quieter conditions are expected for the next few days. High pressure builds in from interior Canada lowering temperatures from above normal to below normal. High temperatures in the upper 60s greatly contrast the 90s of last week. The upper level pattern continues to be punctuated by two stout yet relatively stationary systems. One, the Bermuda high off the SE CONUS coast and the second a deep, but sedentary trough near Baja California. These two features have been the primary influences on our weather pattern over the past several days, and tabbing through the extended forecast, that influence does not look to wane until the weekend. The Bermuda high's influence has weakened a bit which allowed the synoptic cold front to pass through last night bring the strong to severe and heavy rainfall. The trough across the SW CONUS remains stout ejecting shortwaves into the flow and keeping things slowly progressive. A more active weather pattern is expected to start later this week as a trough dips out of the northern Rockies Thursday. This tight pocket of CVA combined with a shortwave ejected from the stationary low in the SW CONUS brings the potential for shower development Thursday morning (40-60%). Further shortwave ejections spur the development of a lee trough which looks to bring increased opportunities (70-80%) for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday morning. This perturbation of the overall flow then facilitates the breakdown of the stationary SW CONUS trough mentioned earlier which proceeds to move it through the atmospheric current. Early projections show this cyclone remaining south of the area through the weekend as another complimentary wave across the northern CONUS prevents northward movement of the southern system. This does present some 20-30% probabilities for precipitation across the region through the weekend. Extended guidance points toward a more active pattern resuming across the continent after the holiday weekend as unblocked flow enables severals atmospheric waves to transit the region. Long range models show several opportunities for systems to pass by our area bringing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms to the edges of the region. The biggest concern with any additional rainfall is aggravation of the current flooding being seen in area creeks and streams. Fortunately, this midweek break should allow some of the swollen creeks and streams to recede back toward normal levels just before the next rounds of rain on Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 OVC and BR/DZ persist at most of the terminals. BR/DZ should slowly dissipate through the afternoon. CIGs remain borderline MVFR to IFR until tomorrow morning when sky coverage looks to open a bit. Northerly winds persist with intermittent gusts continuing through the afternoon. Winds shift to slight northeasterly tomorrow morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...Pesel  506 FXUS63 KGLD 191934 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 134 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week. - Marginal severe risk Thursday afternoon and evening, primarily in Colorado, but could see that into northwest Kansas through the evening hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough will remain anchored over the western CONUS through Thursday, then will merge with a closed upper low over the northern Rockies on Friday. Shortwaves ejecting eastward from these systems will result in occasional chances for shower and isolated thunderstorms. The first wave moves out of southern Colorado tonight and northeastward into central Nebraska tomorrow. Scattered light rain showers will develop tonight through Wednesday morning, best chances will be north of Interstate 70. Some weak instability does develop along the Front Range Wednesday afternoon where scattered thunderstorms will develop. Deep layer shear around 50kts will be sufficient for supercells as they migrate eastward across the plains, but with rapidly diminishing instability do not think they will impact our area. However, the remnant showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm with some weak MUCAPE will be moving across the area Wednesday evening. Not expecting any hazards with this activity other than localized wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Showers should persist into the overnight hours with the upper trough axis still to the west, with best chances south of Interstate 70. Thursday will see a somewhat similar scenario, but shifted northward as the northern Rockies upper low strengthens and a stronger shortwave trough moves across eastern Colorado at the time of peak heating. The instability axis will shift further east and the REFS has a corridor of 1000-1500 j/kg from Limon to Fort Morgan along with 35kts of deep layer shear. While the surface-based instability will rapidly weaken after 00Z, MUCAPE of at least 500 j/kg as well as deep layer shear of 40kts are forecast as the showers and thunderstorms move in from Colorado Thursday night. The parameters suggest a marginally severe storm or two will be possible with some pockets of MUCAPE up to 1000 j/kg forecast by the NAM through about 06z before weakening. NBM has rain amounts of up to 1" in eastern Colorado Thursday evening with the stronger storms, then around 0.25-0.50" in the rest of the area overnight with rain and isolated storms. The upper trough axis and associated surface cold front will be slowly moving through the area Friday morning with showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing. This morning activity should limit the afternoon instability, though it is possible some clearing could occur on the western and southern edges of the forecast area. Also will need to see where the front ends up in the afternoon as new convection could develop along it. However, both the GFS and ECMWF currently have the front well to the south, entering Oklahoma, while the NAM is slower and has the front in the southern part of the area. Since this is still a few days out and there will be multiple days of convection which may impact the ultimate timing and location of the front, confidence is low in the details and any potential severe hazards on Friday. Temperatures through the period show little variation with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 110 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Saturday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough along the Rocky Mountains. Expect mostly sunny skies and a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25-35% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties Sunday and Monday. Warm temperatures continue Tuesday with highs forecast in the 80s. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible Tuesday for the western CWA. With relative humidity (RH) values overall trending down and forecast in the low 20s for Tuesday, fire weather potential will need to be monitored through the week. Models are in disagreement on the track and evolution of a surface low off the coast of Baja California that starts to develop late Sunday. If this surface low ends up tracking toward our region, we have potential for an active pattern and severe weather potential late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will gradually increase tonight with scattered light showers in the area by 12z Wednesday morning. No impacts are expected at this time at either terminal. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...024  533 FXUS65 KPIH 191935 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 135 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and freeze conditions continue again into Wednesday morning. - Gradual warming trend is underway this week. - Best chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 General "troughiness" remains over eastern Idaho today, continuing our mildly unsettled pattern. Any precipitation chances today and fairly limited to the higher elevations farther north. Afternoon wind gusts will fall into the 20-25 mph range for most. Light winds and partly cloud conditions overnight will keep us a few degrees warmer than this morning was, so have gone with a FREEZE WARNING for the Mud Lake/Arco Desert zone where temperatures will be between 29 and 32 degrees and FROST ADVISORY for the rest of our Snake River Plain zones where temperatures will be between 33 and 37 degrees. After Wednesday morning, we might get a break from frost/freeze products on Thursday morning, though the Mud Lake/Arco Desert zone will be close once again. One shortwave moves out of the area on Wednesday for a low to drop south of out Canada and into northern Montana late Wednesday into Thursday. The troughing associated with that low will impact us late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the Central Mountains, Eastern Highlands, and upper Snake River Plain. Precipiation will spread southeast through Wednesday night and any Thursday activity would be in the Eastern and Southeastern Highlands. This overnight movement of moisture will bring some light snow to the mountain tops, but impacts to travel is not expected. By Thursday, winds will swing around to be out of the north and cool us off a few degrees from the mid and upper 60s on Wednesday to the low and mid 60s on Thursday. Given the northerly winds, we may need a LAKE WIND ADVISORY, too, but it is borderline. By Friday morning, temperatures will be chilly again, ranging from the low 30s to low 40s for most. But drier conditions are back by Friday morning, too, and will stay mostly dry through the holiday weekend with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s to low 80s by Saturday and more 80s on Sunday and Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds remain light currently but should shift to the SW/W to everywhere outside of KSUN to around 10 knots through early evening. Winds lessen overnight becoming more southerly with a return to the SW/W expected Wednesday afternoon. Not expecting any impactful precip for eastern Idaho terminals. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for IDZ051- 053>055. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for IDZ052. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMM AVIATION...McKaughan  608 FXUS63 KLOT 191937 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 237 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry but cooler conditions Wednesday and Thursday, followed by increasing rain chances Friday. - Intermittent shower/thunderstorm chances for Memorial Day weekend, though much of the period should be dry. - Several periods of moderate to high swim risk conditions possible through early next week due to persistent northeast winds over Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front currently nearing the I-39 corridor across the western CWA will shift eastward across the forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon. With the combination of an outflow boundary early this morning now east of I-57, increasing low-level cloud cover, and 600-800 hPa warming, the potential for any storms or appreciable heavier showers appears to be confined to the extreme southeast CWA (south of a Paxton to Rensselaer line) for the next few hours. Otherwise, spotty shallow showers remain possible anywhere ahead of the cold front through the daytime hours. Though the front will track well south and east of the area tonight, modest low-level frontogenesis in response to a broad mid to upper- level jet may yield either a few light showers or a band of light rain across the far southern CWA overnight into mid-morning Wednesday. High pressure will expand across the northern Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday. Expect dry but cooler conditions amid persistent northeast winds through this period. A Pacific wave off the Baja of California will bring an area of increased mid-level moisture across the central CONUS late this week as low-level Gulf moisture is drawn northward toward the mid- Mississippi River Valley. Though stout low-level drying from the northeast over the Great Lakes will impede the initial northward extent of rain on Friday, the overall translation of deep moisture northward should overcome the low-level dry air and bring an area of rain across most of the area by late Friday. Poor mid-level lapse rates will greatly limit thunderstorm chances. A gradual warmup appears in store this weekend into early next week as broad ridging builds over the north-central CONUS. However, there remains substantial model disagreement as to whether a larger southwest CONUS trough late this week becomes cut-off over the southern Plains/Texas or remains loosely tied to the western edge of the ridge. The latter solution would bring cooler and more unsettled weather to the area late in the weekend and delay any potential warm- up to next week. As an added note, we are nearing the start of the Beach Hazards season. Given the potential for multiple periods of northeast winds and higher waves this week/weekend into next week, swim risk messaging may need to increase in the next couple days. Kluber && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Key Messages: - Breezy west-southwesterly to westerly winds to continue through this afternoon. - MVFR ceilings may be observed at times through tomorrow morning. Breezy west-southwesterly winds with peak gusts in the 25-30 kt range will continue through the early afternoon before turning more westerly as a cold front tracks across the area over the next few hours. Winds will then turn northerly overnight before becoming northeasterly after sunrise tomorrow. MVFR ceilings should become more commonplace after the cold front moves through and will likely hang around the area in some capacity through tomorrow morning, but VFR conditions are still favored to prevail through a good chunk, if not most, of this time frame. Additionally, still couldn't rule out a few isolated showers or sprinkles passing near the terminals this afternoon as the cold front passes by, but dry conditions are otherwise favored to prevail through the TAF period. Ogorek && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  606 FXUS65 KMSO 191937 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers today with a few thunderstorms possible over the higher terrain. - A system dropping into central Montana on Wednesday will push a boundary southward through western Montana driving thunderstorm activity through the afternoon and into the evening. - Dry and increasingly warm conditions return later in the week, temperatures nearing 80 degrees(or warmer) by the weekend for many locations. - Watching Monday for potential fire weather concerns in southwest Montana ahead of the next system. A west-northwesterly flow will promote scattered, disorganized showers across the region through the rest of the day today. Instability remains modest resulting in low (~10%) probabilities for thunderstorm development except in the higher terrain (40%). Precipitation amounts will remain light, generally under 0.15 inches for those that do see a shower. For Wednesday, an incoming closed low will track southward into central Montana. The western edge of this low will enhance a due- northerly flow across western Montana and push a boundary southward through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will organize along this feature with initiation in the Flathead Valley around and after noon eventually reaching the Missoula/Bitterroot valleys and points south closer to 5:00 pm and into the evening. There is a 40% chance of lightning with these storms in any area with shower/storm development along with the primary threats of graupel, small hail, and erratic outflow winds of 25-35 mph. Behind Wednesday's system, high pressure builds across the Northern Rockies, ushering in a quiet, dry, and warming trend to end the workweek. By Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will peak in the upper 70s and low 80s across most valley locations (warmer in the lower river valleys of Idaho). Ensemble clusters suggest a potential breakdown of this ridge by Monday. If this materializes, the combination of a warm, dry weekend followed by increasing pre-frontal winds could elevate fire weather concerns particularly across southwest Montana. && .AVIATION...A slightly unstable west-northwest flow will result in scattered light showers and vicinity showers across most terminals this afternoon and evening. Brief, localized reductions to MVFR visibility and ceilings are possible under any passing showers alongside mountain obscurations across the higher terrain. While the probability of lightning is low today (around 10% for valleys), it is non-zero. Otherwise, expect noticeably gusty surface winds this afternoon with west-northwest gusts of 15-20 kt subsiding after sunset. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$  899 FXUS63 KLMK 191945 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 345 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered storms this afternoon followed by a more prominent line of storms this evening will bring heavy downpours and severe potential for severe wind gusts and small hail. Southern IN counties and KY counties that border the Ohio have the best potential. * There is flooding potential for the storms that move through tonight, especially in our southern IN counties. * Another surge of moisture moves in by Wednesday morning, keeping clouds and rain for everyone and scattered storms for eastern locations by the afternoon. * Busy weather pattern sets up Wednesday through the remainder of the week, with widespread moderate rainfall expected Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently, temperatures are warm in the mid to upper 80s with mixed cloud cover area wide. A few communities have already seen rain today from two axis of showers and storms trying to form in our western and eastern counties. The severe threat for strong to severe gusty winds aren't expected from these ongoing storms, at least not until later this evening from an approaching line of storms from the northwest. However, what is popping up on radar still has the potential for some small hail stones and gusty winds before the main event arrives. The synoptic setup features troughing in the Plains with continued ridging in the east. The overall weather pattern though will be changing as early as tonight as a trailing cold front from a surface low up in southern Canada will move across the Ohio Valley this evening through Wednesday afternoon. This front is very slow, and will help initiate a line of storms across the Midwest that will move into our CWA this evening. This more prominent line of storms, preceded by pop up storms ahead of the main line, will move in from the northwest well ahead of the cold front. There is plenty of SBCAPE for this line to tap into however as they approach and develop near our CWA, the best shear will move north into the Great Lakes and Southern Canada. Once evening sits in as the storms move in, this means they will slowly be weakening as they trek across our counties. Despite this, multi- cell clusters forming into bowing line segments are possible bringing severe to strong gusty winds and small hail if some of the storms could grow tall enough. With CAPE values ranging 2500 - 3000 J/kg or higher this afternoon in southern IN and western KY, hail can't be ruled out. The highest severe threat is in southern IN and into KY counties bordering the Ohio. Additionally, PWAT values are running high ranging 1.5-2", favored in southern IN thanks to a surge of moisture from the SW. Dewpoints will be running high, meaning there is potential for additional flooding this afternoon/evening in the same areas that were hit hard last night, namely southern IN. As a result, a flood watch has been issued for all our southern Indiana counties including Trimble County as well. Our western KY counties are under the same SW plume of moisture too and will be monitored for flooding potential. Should more rain trend to fall in this area, the flood watch may need to be expanded. Rainfall totals are greatest in southern IN, western KY counties, and counties along the Ohio have a 70-80% chance of receiving ranging around 0.5 - 1", with localized areas of 2+" according to HREF LPMM data in training storms. Elsewhere in central/southern KY including cities like Lexington, rainfall totals will generally by around 0.25-0.5" or lower by early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will cool this evening into the 60s and 70s with weak winds and loweringcloud heights. Rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue tonight with spotty coverage until a weak developing low pushes up from Arkansas Wednesday morning following along our slow-moving cold front. This will keep a steady supply of moisture for everyone Wednesday morning. A few weak embedded storms and rumbles of thunder are possible then, especially in our far southeastern counties that may partially clear. Later in the afternoon with partial clearing, continued WAA in the east, and CAPE values nearing 1000+ J/kg, some gusty winds may be possible with a few of these storms, though we are not expecting severe weather with Wednesday's convection at this time. This may build up enough instability for a few storms to produce more lightning . As the developing surface low slowly moves east, so will any rain showers and weak storms exit to the east. Highs on Wednesday will vary generally northwest to southeast tomorrow as clouds and the cold front slowly marches eastward. Along and north of the Ohio, highs will be in the low to mid 70s with upper 70s to low 80s in our southeast border counties. Rain showers and storms end Wednesday night with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Thursday's weather seems a little drier compared to Wednesday as the cold front should clear or nearly clear our southern communities by morning. Since this front is stalling so close by, continued rain showers with low PoPs have been continued for our far southern areas, though rain totals look to remain low. Cloud cover remains throughout the day though, limiting our warming Thursday behind the front with highs in the low to upper 70s in a few places. By Friday, a trough exiting on the leeward side of the Rockies in the Mid-Plains will swing our front back north as a warm front with a returning surge of moisture from the southwest. EFI tables suggest a moderately high EFI values for QPF, meaning this incoming surge of moisture could produce a good amount of rain for drought stricken areas across all of the CWA. 25th and 75th percentile rainfall totals range from near 0.5" to 1" of rain during the day on Friday. Timing of this rainfall and when it ends is a little uncertain still, as it appears once Friday's trough clears, there is not much synoptic forcing to sweep the front out of the area. As a result, rain chances could continue into Saturday, further alluded to by moderately high EFI values for QPF Saturday. There is still high uncertainty with rain chances later in the weekend though as LREF clustering analysis shows high spread in the rainfall totals. Should another stalled out front form over KY, more rain is likely, but if the stalled out front moves well to our south, Sunday and early next week will begin dry. Temperature trends this weekend remain warm in the upper 70s to low 80s for highs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will linger early this afternoon before BKN-OVC ceilings move in with a broken line of storms mainly affecting HNB/SDF airports. Elsewhere, timing and duration of the approaching storms is more uncertain, but at the least, everyone has PROB30s for storms or showers this evening. S and SW winds will gradually weaken this evening as storm coverage lessens after sunset. Clouds remain overnight and gradually lower to low VFR/high MVFR ceilings in the east, with lower ceilings out west, dipping to IFR conditions in HNB overnight. Spotty storms or showers linger overnight as well before another round of showers with embedded storms move in from the southwest. By Wednesday morning, showers will continue and slowly drift east. Weak storms may be embedded in these showers as well. Winds will begin shifting out of the north to northwest as well starting in HNB Wednesday morning and slowly shifting in the early afternoon for LEX/RGA. Clouds remain all day Wednesday with MVFR conditions remaining in the west to VFR conditions returning to the east with lingering showers. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ032. IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...BKF LONG TERM...BKF AVIATION...BKF  880 FXUS64 KHUN 191944 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 244 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms return tonight. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms then persist each day from Wednesday through much of the weekend. No severe weather is forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms have developed along a convergent boundary stretching from Tullahoma south towards Guntersville. These storms remain quite isolated and are not expected to intensify and stay sub-severe through the evening. Expect some additional showers and storms to develop along any outflow boundaries near this convergence boundary. Further west, there is barely a Cu field suggesting some subsidence in this area. Previous Discussion: By tonight, the MCS along a cold front that impacted MO/AR/LA will push eastward into TN/MS. By the time it reaches NW AL a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as it runs into a more stable environment. That being said, the outflow boundary associated with the MCS will at least provide a low chance (20-40%) of showers and storms after midnight in portions of NW AL. No severe storms are forecast given the weak vertical wind shear. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front associated with the active weather to our west finally makes its way into the TN Valley. As it stalls just to our west, shortwaves are forecast to ripple northeastward along the boundary Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms. While it is difficult to determine when the precip will occur, the best chances for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening hours. The good news is that there is little to no shear, therefore no severe storms are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026After sunrise, w A more summerlike pattern will persist through the Day 4-7 period as 5h ridging builds farther into the southeast U.S. and eastern Gulf of America. Southwesterly flow will persist northwest of the ridge, maintaining a moist flow of air into the Gulf States, particularly in the lower MS Valley where 2.0+ inch PWs will reside. Although, there is a corridor of slightly lower values in the 1.5-1.8 inch range over AL into eastern and middle TN, with higher values farther east across the FL peninsula through GA and the Carolinas. Multiple weak impulses will lift northeast through this period, with medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms each day (diurnally inflated due to heating). High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows in the 60s. Dew points will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions continue today with gusty southerly winds around 20 knots. Winds will subside and become light overnight. Tomorrow morning, rain and thunderstorm chances begin to increase. This will result in both vsbys and cigs dropping down to MVFR. One uncertainty is the timing, hence left in a prob 30 group for now and will refine in future forecasts. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...GH  892 FXUS65 KPUB 191945 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 145 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and wetter weather continues tonight and Wednesday with a few inches of snow across the mountains, particularly north of highway 50. - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday across most of the southeast plains. - Gradual warming and drying over the weekend but active weather returns next week with the approach of another western U.S. upper low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Cooler temperatures and higher humidity have brought a much needed reprieve to the windy and dry conditions of late across the southeast plains today. Meanwhile, gusty southwest winds have returned to the mountains and San Luis Valley where winds have been gusting up to 45 mph at times. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and adjacent plains late this afternoon and evening. Best convective potential will be across the mountains where better surface heating has been occuring. Across the plains, a strong cap will remain in place though as the Great Basin upper trough translates eastward overnight, broad overrunning will combine with shallow easterly upslope flow to produce another round of stratiform rain and snow across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains. Heavier precipitation amounts will favor locations along and north of highway 50. Snow levels will be higher tonight than last night but some light snow accumulations will be possible above roughly 8500 feet. Otherwise, another cloudy night with increasing dew points in southeast surface flow should keep low temperatures above freezing for the southeast plains. Wednesday will start out cloudy and showery for the northern mountains and adjacent plains. This will be followed by partial clearing then another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing across the mountains, and spreading into the southeast plains Wednesday evening as forcing from the upper trough glances by to the north. Best thunderstorm chances will be across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains where CAPE of up to 750 J/kg will be in place. The southeast plains look capped initially but could see some broad overrunning precipitation Wednesday night as a southerly low level jet sets up to the east. Showers should pull eastward into KS towards morning. Overall, temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 60s to around 70 across the lower elevations and a mix of 40s and 50s for the mountains, with cooler readings above timberline. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Thunderstorm chances increase for Thursday with a better chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across the southeast plains in the afternoon and evening. Next upper trough will be dropping southward through the northern U.S. Rockies and swinging by to the north Thursday night. This forcing, along with better surface heating, continued low level moisture advection in southerly return flow, and decent deep layers shears, should trigger a round of scattered thunderstorms, some potentially severe, across the southeast plains. Models push a dry line northeastward off the Raton Mesa with easterly low level flow putting a ribbon of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE along the northern I-25 corridor counties of Pueblo and El Paso counties, eastward across portions of the southeast plains. Hodographs show some decent curvature, especially where surface winds are more easterly, and with deep layer shears around 40 kts, large hail, damaging winds and even an isolated tornado will be possible. There is still a bit of a cap farther east near KLAA in the afternoon, though a low level jet and cooling aloft with the incoming upper trough steepen lapse rates aloft Thursday night suggesting convective maintenance into the overnight across the eastern CO/western KS. Main severe risk would be in the afternoon and evening, especially for the I-25 corridor, but there is a fair chance of rain (50-70%) across much of the southeast plains. Western areas, by contrast, will remain dry and breezy. Temperatures warm around 5 degrees over those of Thursday. Cold front drops southward into the plains on Friday behind the departing upper wave. Some minor cooling and another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected for the southeast mountains and plains. Best CAPE will likely be to the south of CO or near our southern border along the frontal boundary. It remains an active pattern into next week with some minor ridging into Sunday leading to a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Enough moisture will be present for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The driest day looks to be Sunday. Troughing returns out west for Monday and Tuesday with southerly flow aloft across CO bringing return moisture and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the mountains. -KT && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1114 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR to VFR cigs will persist for KCOS and KPUB into the evening before another round of showers pushes off the mountains during the evening dropping cigs back into the MVFR category for both terminals with -SHRA. Cigs/vis will likely drop into the IFR category after 06z at KCOS as southeast upslope winds continue. Cigs will continue into the morning hours before lifting during the late morning and afternoon. Winds will be predominantly southeast to easterly through the period. KALS will stay VFR through today with gusty southwest winds this afternoon. -SHRA may enter the terminal after 00z with VCSH possible into the overnight hours. Cigs will remain VFR but winds will lighten up towards 06z. Winds tomorrow will increase again out of the southwest and gust up to 30 kts in the afternoon. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...KT  126 FXUS65 KABQ 191947 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 147 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread continues in the lower Rio Grande Valley and surrounding highlands today and possibly on Wednesday. - Strong, erratic wind gusts from virga showers will impact a few spots across northwestern and north-central NM through this evening. - Overnight rain showers and patchy drizzle over eastern New Mexico will give way to increasing thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday east of the central mountain chain. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 A nearly stationary H5 trough draped from northeast to southwest across the Great Basin will keep dry southwest flow aloft over the southern Rockies thru Wednesday. At the surface, a moist backdoor cold front that surged southwest thru eastern NM this morning is banked up against the central mt chain with gap winds still gusting to around 30 mph in the RGV. Surface convergence between the dry southwest flow across western NM and the moist southeast flow from eastern NM will help to develop gusty high-based showers over the northern mts thru this evening. This activity will move quickly northeast before fizzling out over the Sangre de Cristo Mts by midnight. Low level southeast flow will persist over eastern NM tonight and help widespread low stratus to develop east of the central mt chain. 13Z NBM ceiling probabilities <3,000' are 40-60% over east-central and northeast NM with probs <1,000' around 20-40%. Several model soundings also support patchy drizzle over parts of the eastern plains with enough elevated instability for light rain showers as well. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding how much instability will be present over eastern NM Wednesday afternoon. CAMs and global models are all over the place with convective initiation, coverage, and even the existence of storms east of the central mt chain. QPF amounts with models that do show storms are all over the place as well. The latest SPC convective outlook expanded the 'Marginal Risk' over eastern NM. Low level moisture will remain in place over eastern NM Wednesday night with high chances for more low stratus east of the central mt chain (40-60% chance). && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 By Thursday and Friday, forecast models are in very good agreement dragging a more well-defined H5 trough from the northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains. This will help to force drier zonal flow eastward across more of NM with near total scouring of low level moisture from eastern NM. Downslope flow will allow temps to trend warmer over eastern NM with widespread breezy west winds and humidity below 15% (except perhaps northeast NM). Surface high pressure building down the Front Range in the wake of the departing trough axis is shown forcing a moist backdoor cold front into eastern NM Saturday. Meanwhile, an H5 ridge is shown building over the southwest U.S. thru early next week with low level return flow improving Sunday and Monday. This may begin a much anticipated pattern change toward increasing chances for showers and storms with measurable rainfall amounts. The 13Z NBM 50th percentile QPF has widespread amounts >0.10" over central and western NM with >0.20" over eastern NM Sunday thru Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Patchy MVFR cigs along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts will burn off thru 1pm. Gusty winds below canyons in the RGV late this morning will veer around to the south after 2pm with a 10-20% chance of wind gusts >40 mph between 4pm and 6pm. The main focus later this afternoon will be virga showers developing over the northern high terrain with wind gusts near 50 mph possible from Cuba to Los Alamos, Taos, Santa Fe, and Angel Fire. This activity will taper off after sunset. Low cigs and patchy fog will then return to eastern NM overnight. There is a 50-70% chance of MVFR cigs over east-central and northeast NM with a 20-40% chance of IFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Critical fire weather over the lower Rio Grande Valley and nearby highlands today may return tomorrow with similar conditions to today. RFTIs may trend a tad lower Wednesday but ERC values are still high with an even longer period of single digit humidity. Confidence is not high enough yet to issue a Fire Weather Watch given wind speeds are more marginal. If speeds trend stronger then a Red Flag Warning may be needed. Breezy south to southwest winds with more single digit humidity over central and western NM Thursday and Friday will lead to widespread elevated fire weather. Confidence is higher that winds will remain below critical thresholds. Meanwhile, eastern NM will be under the influence of moist southeast flow and increasing chances for low clouds, patchy fog, drizzle, showers, and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Beginning Saturday, a pattern change toward more widespread moisture with lighter flow aloft is anticipated. This transition may bring higher chances for showers and storms with wetting rainfall over much of the region thru Tuesday, especially eastern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 75 42 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 72 36 73 30 / 5 5 5 0 Cuba............................ 73 42 73 39 / 10 20 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 35 73 34 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 74 40 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 79 41 77 39 / 5 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 76 42 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 51 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 75 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 79 39 78 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 84 43 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 35 66 33 / 20 20 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 73 50 72 49 / 10 20 10 5 Pecos........................... 71 43 70 43 / 5 5 30 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 42 69 41 / 30 40 20 0 Red River....................... 62 32 64 31 / 40 50 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 64 31 65 29 / 20 30 40 20 Taos............................ 74 40 73 36 / 20 20 20 5 Mora............................ 67 40 67 42 / 10 30 30 50 Espanola........................ 80 48 79 45 / 10 10 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 74 49 72 48 / 10 10 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 47 75 45 / 10 10 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 83 56 82 53 / 5 5 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 54 84 50 / 5 5 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 53 86 49 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 84 54 84 51 / 5 10 0 0 Belen........................... 86 51 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 85 53 84 50 / 5 10 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 50 86 45 / 0 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 53 85 51 / 5 10 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 51 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 81 54 79 52 / 5 10 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 53 84 51 / 5 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 88 56 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 49 76 48 / 5 5 10 0 Tijeras......................... 81 46 79 44 / 5 5 10 0 Edgewood........................ 79 45 77 43 / 0 5 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 80 42 77 40 / 0 5 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 72 44 68 44 / 0 10 30 20 Mountainair..................... 79 46 79 44 / 0 5 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 47 78 45 / 0 5 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 82 53 81 52 / 0 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 76 50 74 50 / 0 5 20 5 Capulin......................... 62 36 59 39 / 5 20 10 60 Raton........................... 67 40 64 41 / 20 20 30 60 Springer........................ 69 42 65 43 / 5 20 20 60 Las Vegas....................... 67 42 64 44 / 0 20 30 60 Clayton......................... 66 42 60 46 / 0 10 20 70 Roy............................. 68 42 61 45 / 0 20 20 70 Conchas......................... 76 47 69 48 / 0 20 30 70 Santa Rosa...................... 76 47 68 47 / 0 20 40 50 Tucumcari....................... 77 48 71 49 / 0 10 40 60 Clovis.......................... 81 50 69 51 / 0 20 50 40 Portales........................ 83 50 71 50 / 0 20 50 40 Fort Sumner..................... 82 50 73 49 / 0 20 50 30 Roswell......................... 89 57 80 55 / 0 20 50 20 Picacho......................... 83 52 77 50 / 0 10 50 10 Elk............................. 84 49 81 48 / 0 5 30 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42  459 FXUS63 KUNR 191957 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 157 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold again Wednesday morning, but gradually warming up towards the weekend. - Isolated chances for precipitation mid-week, better chances late Thursday into Friday. - Much warmer temperatures settle in over the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Current upper air models show the upper trough axis east of the forecast area this afternoon, with west northwest flow over the region. 19Z surface analysis depicts high pressure over Wyoming, weak surface trough over central MT. Satellite shows widespread CU across the forecast area, with little vertical extent. Temperatures currently sit in the 40s to mid 50s with light winds predominantly out of the northwest. Brief shortwave ridge settles in Wednesday into Thursday, prompting a slow warming trend with mostly dry conditions. Weak surface trough in MT passes through Wednesday. This forcing may spark some isolated to showers/storms but no significant QPF is expected through the first half of Thursday. As ridge shifts eastward, troughing once again slides across the Rockies and into the northern and central plains. Synoptic forcing will prompt widespread precipitation the latter half of Thursday into Friday. Current NBM probabilities for precip >= 0.25" has a wide swath of 60 to 80 percent over most of western SD, excluding far northwestern SD. Based off the current track of this system, highest QPF amounts are expected in the Black Hills and southwestern SD Precipitation is expected to taper off from west to east later Friday, and upper ridge slowly builds over the weekend. Expect highs to jump into the 70s and 80s by Saturday, and stick around through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1051 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Low & mid- level clouds over western South Dakota will gradually dissipate this afternoon from west to east. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Wednesday for SDZ002-012>014-027-030>032-041>044- 046-047-049-073-075>078. WY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ055-056- 058>060. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...13  449 FXUS65 KBOI 191957 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 157 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry with temperatures warming through Friday. - Well above normal temperatures over Memorial Day Weekend. Gusty winds and a few mountain showers possible on Memorial Day. - Turning cooler early next week with gusty winds and increasing chance of precipitation starting Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Our region will remain positioned on the western edge of upper level troughing through Thursday. While the focus of organized precipitation will remain to our east, daytime instability will support widespread cumulus buildups over the mountains as seen this afternoon. There's a slight chance that showers could develop from the cumulus field across e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho mtns each afternoon. Localized gusty winds will be possible from showers or more robust cumulus (with or w/o precipitation). Shower chances briefly increase to 15-25% in the w-central Idaho mtns and s-central Idaho zones Wednesday night in response to a passing shortwave trough. Otherwise it's dry and temperatures are on the way up, leaving behind any frost/freeze concerns for the Snake Plain. By Thursday high temperatures will be several degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... A ridge of high pressure will build over the Western US by the end of this week, bringing generally clear, warm and dry conditions to the region through Monday. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above normal. The ridge will reach peak strength on Sunday, with high temperatures near 90F in the Treasure Valley. By Monday, models indicate that an upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest will begin to increase chances for precipitation. The upper level trough will move inland on Tuesday, with about half of the models showing that the trough will evolve into a closed low over the Pacific NW by Tuesday or Wednesday. In either scenario, temperatures will cool down 10-20 degrees by Tuesday increasing winds and chance of showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance). && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1214 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR. Scattered high based cumulus clouds will continue over the area with some producing virga and gusty winds. Surface winds generally W to NW at 5-15 kts, except in the vicinity of virga where gusts to 35 kts are possible this afternoon. Winds light and variable less than 10 kts tonight across the area. Winds W-NW 10 to 15 kts on Wednesday. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds NW 10 to 15 kts this afternoon. Winds light and variable less than 5 kts tonight. Winds W-NW 10 to 15 kts on Wednesday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JB AVIATION...JB  551 FXUS63 KICT 191959 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 259 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday, with highs around 10 degrees below normal. - Rain chances will start to increase Wednesday night and will remain through Thursday evening. Even though most locations will get wet through this time period, we are not looking for any organized severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently have a shortwave trough extending from southwest Ontario, through the Northern Plains and into the Central Great Basin. The two main vort lobes are situated over the Upper Mississippi Valley and over the Central Great Basin. Strong cold front that moved through last night is now located from central MO into southeast OK. Unseasonably cold airmass is in place across the Plains with highs today around 25-30 degrees cooler than Monday's readings! This airmass will remain place for tonight with many locations across central and western KS falling into the upper 30s to low 40s. For tonight through most of Wed, upper trough will remain through the Great Basin with a more robust piece of energy starting to dig across the Northern Rockies on Wed night. Outside of a few rogue showers over far southeast KS tonight into Wed, the majority of the forecast area will remain dry through Wed. Stationary front will remain to our south and will start to wash out on Wed. By Wed night, shortwave will continue to dig across the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin and at the same time, there is decent model agreement that some southern stream upper energy will start to lift out of southwest TX. This will place most of the region in an area of deep isentropic lift and mid level theta-e advection for Wed night through Thu. We will also remain in the right entrance region of an upper jet. This will result in fairly widespread showers and isolated storms starting Wed night and continuing on Thu. At this point it appears the most widespread activity will be Thu evening for the Flint Hills into southeast KS as the southern stream impulse lifts across the area. We should see an overall decrease in precip on Fri as the southern stream wave lifts out and the main upper trough swings northeast across the Central Plains. However for Sat, yet another weak upper perturbation is set to swing across the forecast area, keeping at least some small precip chances in through Sat evening. Then another southern stream impulse is expected to once again lift out of southwest TX and bring widespread rain to the Southern Plains for Sat night through Sun night. The GFS is much quicker to close this low off and lift it north, spreading widespread precip into much of our forecast area. However, it appears to be the outlier at this time. As far as temps go, below normal readings will remain for both Wed and Thu, as we get back closer to seasonal values for Fri into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and storms continue to exit Kansas to the east however MVFR cigs will most likely remain and impact KCNU/KICT with brief moments of IFR cigs for KCNU. A few showers or thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon over southeast Kansas but should be widely scattered. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere with gusty northerly winds throughout the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...SGS  546 FXUS66 KMFR 191959 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1259 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, dry weather prevails through late this week and into this weekend. Warmest days Thu-Sun with temperatures about 10-15F above normal. - Afternoon/evening breezes should be fairly typical, though occasionally gusty along the coast. - While the warm, dry conditions elevate fire weather risk, fuels are still in green-up/curing process and present generally low to moderate fire danger. - Potential for a stronger trough early next week (Memorial Day) bringing precipitation potential, gusty winds and a cool down. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure and dry NW flow aloft will keep dry weather going through the remainder of this week along with a warming trend. Overall, high temperatures today and Wednesday will be a few to several degrees above normal, but warmer air aloft will bring temperatures around 10-15F above normal Thu-Sun. The air mass is pretty dry, but we'll get marine pushes from time to time that will bring bouts of nighttime/morning stratus to the coast, coastal valleys and Umpqua Basin. One such marine push is coming tonight, which could be deep enough to cause some spillover clouds around the Rogue Valley Wednesday morning, but that's about it. By Friday pm/eve, models are showing a weak impulse offshore and some moisture/weak instability near the NorCal mountains (mainly south of here -- Sierra). This raises the idea of thunder, but the probability of anything occurring this far north is 10% or less. Same goes for Saturday pm/eve. Looking ahead, there are indications that the ridge will begin to break down over the weekend, with the potential for a more robust trough to enter the Pacific Northwest around Memorial Day that could bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to the forecast area. Model suites still are not in solid agreement with this scenario, with several differences primarily in trough strength, but also its timing, so confidence is also still on the low side. This will warrant a close eye for those with plans for the Memorial Day holiday. Most inland areas should have a 5-10F cool down along with enhanced to locally gusty winds, and a chance of showers. -Spilde && .AVIATION...19/18Z TAFs...VFR prevails area wide late this morning. This will continue into this evening, then a weak impulse will pass over the region tonight, with a marine push expected through the morning hours. This will result in IFR/MVFR ceilings over the marine waters and along the coast, and eventually the coastal valleys and Umpqua Basin, including at North Bend and Roseburg. Marine layer depth (up to around 5000 feet) allows for the potential for some clouds to form and bank up against the Siskiyous Wednesday morning. These may cause local terrain obscuration but should be VFR above Medford. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday morning. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, May 19, 2026...A thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas over the coastal waters through Friday night. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. Through this stretch, very steep seas of 10-12 ft are most likely south of Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. Guidance shows winds will strengthen Wednesday/Thursday with the potential (35-55% chance) for gales (gusts) across portions of the southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south. The pattern will ease some this weekend as an upper trough pushes in from the NW. This should bring lighter winds and lower seas, especially by Sunday. Model scenarios indicate another trough moving through Sunday night into Monday, but the strength of the trough is the main source of uncertainty at this time. We should get a better handle on this in the coming days. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370. && $$