472 FXUS66 KLOX 192109 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 209 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...19/114 PM. Light offshore flow will continue through Wednesday leading to clear skies and warm temperatures. Beginning Thursday there will be a return to cooling May Grey conditions which will last through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...19/159 PM. Very little change to the previous forecasts through the rest of this week. Temperatures will peak Wednesday, generally 1-3 degrees warmer than today, except around 5 degrees warmer in the Antelope Valley. Light offshore flow will start the day but will turn onshore by afternoon or sooner at the coast. Warmer valleys will reach the lower 90s while areas towards the coast will be in the 70s and 80s. These are roughly 5-10 degrees above normal. While the upper level pattern remains more or less the same through the rest of the week, the primary change will be the reversal from offshore to onshore flow beginning Thursday which will bring temperatures back down to near normal levels by the weekend. This will also coincide with a return of the marine layer, as early as Thursday in some areas but possibly not til Friday or Saturday for the valleys. One exception to this may be southwest Santa Barbara County where a 2-4mb offshore gradient during the overnight hours will likely create nightly Sundowners with winds gusting between 25 and 40 mph at times, particularly Wednesday and Thursday nights. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...19/209 PM. The rest of the 7 day forecast into early next week is very benign as the baggy trough will persist with moderate to strong onshore flow through the period. This is likely to maintain temperatures near to slightly below normal temperatures with a steady dose of night and morning low clouds and fog covering most coast and valley areas. And once again there is the possible exception across southwestern Santa Barbara County where offshore flow returns Monday night with gusty north winds at times. && .AVIATION...19/1710Z. At 1616Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep, with an inversion up to 1400 ft and a maximum temperature of 20 C. High confidence in CAVU TAFs. There is a 15% chance of 6SM FU at KVNY due to Sandy Fire from 02Z-06Z Wednesday. KLAX...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected. However, 20% chance for MVFR VSBYs HZ 11Z-16Z Wednesday. There is a 15% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8 kts from 12Z-16Z Wednesday. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...19/203 PM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels, except for localized pockets of near SCA NW winds during the afternoons and evenings. Chances of issuing an advisory is fairly low. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Localized near SCA winds are possible south of Port San Luis Wednesday afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, winds & seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Local SCA winds may occur again later today and Wednesday evening off the coast of Point Dume, across the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel. Otherwise through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  008 FXUS65 KPSR 192115 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 215 PM MST Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A broad scale troughing pattern will persist over the western U.S. through the end of the workweek keeping temperatures overall near normal. - Weak shortwave ridging will build over the Desert Southwest this weekend,allowing temperatures to rise a few degrees above normal, with lower desert highs reaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. - Dry conditions, with no threat of rain, and seasonal afternoon breezes are expected through the next several days. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Latest GOES infrared wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis reveals a broad trough of low pressure extending from the Pacific NW into the Central Plains. Our forecast area still remains at the base of this positively tilted trough with a broad fetch of southwesterly flow currently in place over the forecast area. A plume of Pacific moisture is currently being pulled NE into the Desert Southwest this afternoon which is resulting in abundant high cloud cover. Despite the increased cloudiness, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower deserts, slightly warmer than yesterday, but still around 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Very dry air at the sfc (Td ranging from the single digits to the 20s) will again result in another relatively cool night across the region with lows ranging from the mid 50s to upper 60s. On Wednesday and Thursday, the troughing pattern will remain intact over the Intermountain West, which will keep 500 mb hghts near to slightly below seasonal levels in a 575-576 dam range. Despite the below normal 500 mb hght field, there will be a slight warming trend in the low-level thermal profile which will promote at least a degree or two increase in temperatures mid-week. This will result in highs reaching back into the mid to upper 90s in most lower desert communities both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Winds each day will mostly follow seasonal trends; light winds during the overnight and morning hours and modest upslope breezes in the afternoons with gusts up to 15-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The slow warming trend is forecast to continue through Friday and this coming weekend. Global ensemble guidance supports the large- scale synoptic pattern across the west finally evolving out of the current state, with the strong blocking ridge near B.C. Canada giving way/weakening as a strong low traverses across Alaska. This change will result in at least a temporary de-amplification of the pattern across the western CONUS for the weekend and a trend toward positive 500mb height anomalies with brief anticyclonic flow developing over the Desert Southwest. This trend will lead to high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s by Friday and pushing 100 degrees by Sunday - Monday (30-60% odds of >=100). This pattern shift will also allow for some moisture to seep into AZ, from the southeast and with evening gulf surges, as global guidance shows a slow uptrend in PWATs Friday through the weekend. This may end up leading to some AZ high terrain afternoon convection, which is supported by some low-end NBM PoPs this weekend (<25% over eastern AZ mountains). The odds are a little higher Monday with the potential for a weak Pacific low to move inland from the west, but this is about all that can be anticipated this far out. This is climatologically the driest time of year for the AZ and SoCal lower deserts, so it is hard to put much optimism into a long-range precip forecast for the lower deserts. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1720Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast period. Winds will continue a gradual transition to W-SW over the next few hours. Any gusts should be limited to around 15-18 kts during the late afternoon/early evening. The diurnal easterly shift should occur late tonight at KIWA and KPHX. High cirrus will increase in coverage over the region from W to E, becoming BKN by late this afternoon. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather issues will exist through the forecast period under increasing high cirrus decks. Confidence remains high that winds will transition from northerly to westerly at KIPL while a persistent northerly component prevails at KBLH. Wind gusts 20-25 kt will be common at KBLH late through late this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... There will be a slow day-to-day warming of temperatures, but overall high temperatures will remain near seasonal normals throughout the rest of this week. Very dry conditions will also persist through the end of the week with relative humidity bottoming out around 5-15% each day. There will be a slight bump up in moisture late this weekend/early next week that may lead to isolated dry thunderstorms in the mountains of eastern AZ, but minimum RHs will still be low around 10-15%. Overnight recoveries will be also remain poor to fair, mostly around 25-45%. Seasonal wind patterns are expected through the rest of the week, with afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph. There will also be a slight uptick in southerly up-river winds along the Colorado River Valley Friday through this weekend, but afternoon and evening gusts are currently forecast to top out in the 20-30 mph range along the river. There will also likely be a return of evening and early-overnight gulf surge boundaries moving up from the Gulf of California through the AZ deserts. These boundaries will mostly lead to a brief uptick in winds and sudden southwesterly wind shifts. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Salerno LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...Salerno FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Salerno  519 FXUS66 KSEW 192126 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 226 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will begin to rebuild across Western Washington on Wednesday and remain in place into Friday for a return to some sunshine and warmer temperatures. The ridge will weaken over the upcoming holiday weekend for a cooling trend and a chance of rain by Memorial Day. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Considerable cloud cover and a few light showers remain in place across the region this afternoon as a weak front dissipates over the area. A building upper ridge on Wednesday will lead to clearing skies and warmer temperatures. The ridge remains firmly in place offshore into Thursday with low level onshore flow weakening. Interior temperatures will warm a few degrees, but coastal area temperatures will likely stay fairly static with night and morning clouds hanging around and an afternoon sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper ridge axis offshore begins to weaken on Friday with low level onshore flow picking up a notch late in the day. Interior temperatures should be similar to those of Thursday...upper 60s to mid 70s...while coastal areas remain mostly in the lower 60s. The ridge is expected to flatten by Saturday for slightly cooler temperatures to begin the weekend. The weekend looks like a tale of two halves. Ensemble height anomalies agree that a deepening upper trough over the Northeast Pacific will begin a transition toward cooler temperatures and possible precipitation, but the speed of transition is up for debate. In general, the Euro and Canadian suite of solutions are more agressive with the troughs arrival while the GFS is less so. Sunday should feature additional cooling and cloud cover with precip chances increasing areawide Sunday night into Memorial Day. 27 && .AVIATION... Upper ridging offshore will continue to lead to N/NW flow aloft over western Washington this afternoon. A mixed bag of conditions out there this afternoon as low clouds continue to linger. Will continue to see a mix of localized MVFR/IFR conditions at areas along the coast, plus lower prone terminals such as KPWT and KPAE. Conditions likely to recover to VFR for most area terminals later this afternoon - with the exception for coastal terminals like KHQM, where MVFR conditions will remain (85% chance). S/SW winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon will start to turn northerly 00Z-03Z and will maintain the same speeds. MVFR/IFR conditions return early Wednesday morning (09z-15z) for interior terminals. KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon with S/SW winds 5 to 10 knots. Latest guidance shows a shift to N/NE winds 00Z-03Z. Mid to high level clouds will stuck around throughout the evening, with a 40 to 60% chance of MVFR conditions returning tonight and lasting throughout Wednesday morning, with VFR returning around 19z-21z. Mazurkiewicz && .MARINE... Surface high pressure offshore will continue onshore flow throughout the area waters through majority of the week. A small craft advisory remains in effect for all outer coastal water zones, mainly for elevated seas. Can expect another westerly push down the Strait of Juan De Fuca tonight, where a small craft advisory is also in effect. We'll see diurnally driven pushes down the Strait through the end of the week. A system on Friday and Saturday could bring a round of elevated seas and winds to the coastal waters. Coastal seas 6 to 8 feet this afternoon will increase to 8 to 10 feet tonight into Wednesday. Seas will then level to 7 to 9 feet throughout Thursday, before rising above 10 feet Friday and into the weekend. Mazurkiewicz && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$  670 FXUS61 KRLX 192127 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 527 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Scattered thunderstorms have developed across southeast Ohio over the last hour or so, with a strong to isolated severe threat over the next hour or two across the area as activity continues to shift northeast through the region. The main threat is strong to damaging wind gusts with any stronger / collapsing cores, although marginally severe hail cannot entirely be ruled out. Have increased PoPs across southeast Ohio and far northwest West Virginia over the next few hours to better reflect radar trends. 147 PM Update... Chances for locally heavy rainfall along and ahead of a cold front Wednesday have increased. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the north and west this afternoon. A decaying complex of storms could bring a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts to southeast Ohio tonight. 2.) A cold front crossing the region Wednesday afternoon and evening brings a threat for damaging winds and localized flash flooding, particularly across the Metro Valley. 3.) Much cooler and drier conditions are expected Thursday. Unsettled weather returns Friday and lasts through the Memorial Day weekend with repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate diurnal cumulus/cumulonimbus development across the region this afternoon amid temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. With relatively weak capping everywhere, at least isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible through loss of heating this evening, most prevalent across the west and north where capping is weakest. Steep low level lapse rates could yield some gusty winds underneath the strongest cores, but the overall severe risk remains fairly low through early this evening.. Attention then turns to tonight as a complex of storms approaches from the west. With the loss of daytime heating and waning instability, this complex is expected to gradually dissipate as it approaches the Ohio River. However, any more robust line segments could still contain marginally severe gusts as they move into southeast Ohio. KEY MESSAGE 2... The main forecast challenge resides with the activity ahead of and along an approaching cold front on Wednesday. Moisture pooling ahead of the front, coupled with strong surface heating, will yield moderate instability heading into Wednesday afternoon with Mixed-Layer CAPE building in excess of 1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates remain rather poor, steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE near 800 J/kg will present a threat for damaging downburst winds. Deep layer shear is expected to remain on the weaker side, generally around 25 to 30KTs, which will favor multicellular clusters. A transient window for supercells may materialize if a brief uptick in shear to 35 KTs overlaps with peak heating. Some mid-level drying could introduce a marginal hail threat in the strongest updrafts, but wet bulb zero heights generally remain above 10-11kft limiting potential for survival of marginally severe hail to the surface. A secondary, and perhaps more impactful, concern for Wednesday will be the potential for training heavy downpours. Boundary flow is forecast to become nearly parallel to the advancing front. This, combined with deep warm cloud depths around 9000 to 10000 ft and precipitable water values pooling to 1.7 inches (above the 90th percentile climatology for this time of year), supports highly efficient rainfall production. Probability matched means HREF/REFS highlight a narrow temporal window between 4 PM and 8 PM for localized heavy rain, clustered primarily across the Metro Valley and adjacent counties. While antecedent soil conditions are quite dry across the area, the intensity of the rainfall could overwhelm the basin response in steep terrain and urbanized environments. A quick 2.5 inches of rain would be sufficient to push small creeks out of their banks and cause flash flooding with lesser amounts causing issues in built up areas. A targeted flash flood watch may become necessary if guidance remains consistent on the placement of the heaviest rainfall axis over the next few model runs. KEY MESSAGE 3... The cold front pushes south of the area on Thursday, allowing most locations to dry out as cooler air filters in. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 70s on Thursday under the influence of cold advection. This respite is brief, as the frontal boundary shifts back to the north as a warm front on Friday, placing the region in an unsettled warm sector heading into the Memorial Day weekend. The boundary is expected to stall just to our north across the Upper Ohio Valley. Friday currently appears to be the wettest day of the extended period. Depending on the exact placement and amounts of Wednesday's heavy rainfall, antecedent soil moisture could become locally compromised, yielding a conditional risk for additional high water concerns on Friday. Showery activity will continue periodically from Saturday through Memorial Day as a persistent Bermuda high over the Atlantic continues to shunt shortwaves through the Ohio Valley. Through this period, there is no strong signal for organized severe weather, as atmospheric instability is expected to remain rather weak with only periodic upticks in deep layer shear. Temperatures will rebound, bringing unseasonably warm, though perhaps not record-breaking, conditions back to the region for the latter half of the holiday weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the majority of the TAF sites this afternoon into early evening. Southwest winds of 8-12KTs will occasionally gust to 20KTs before subsiding after sunset. Isolated showers or a thunderstorm may develop across northern terminals late this afternoon, but coverage is too sparse for inclusion of anything more than VCSH/VCTS at this time. A decaying complex of thunderstorms will approach from the west tonight - would largely expect this to dissipate before reaching the western TAF sites. On Wednesday, a cold front will approach the region, initiating another round of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the period. Expect cloud bases to lower and southwesterly winds to increase ahead of the front. A bulk of any heavier precipitation will occur beyond the end of this TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: An afternoon thunderstorm passing over a TAF site may promote brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H HH H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front, likely resulting in periods of MVFR to localized IFR conditions. && .Climate... Slightly more substantial cloud cover may keep afternoon highs today just short of records in several locations. Forecast / Record High Temperatures --------------------- Today, 5/19 | --------------------- CRW | 90 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 89 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 89 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 89 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 85 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 86 / 93 (1996) | --------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/GW AVIATION...JP CLIMATE...JP  915 FXUS65 KFGZ 192131 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 231 PM MST Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week and next weekend, along with typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION...The remainder of the week will feature a slow and steady rise in temperatures, dry conditions and generally light southwesterly winds each afternoon. A weak trough does persist over the area through at least Friday, so some of those afternoon gusts may have a little extra speed at times, but nothing impactful. By next weekend, ridging forms over the area and we should expect temperatures to rise a bit above normal as a result. However, it still looks very dry. There are some hints of a modest increase in mid-level moisture for Sunday/Monday, which could lead to isolated and high-based showers. However, amounts are likely to remain in the trace category, or just VIRGA. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 19/18Z through Wednesday 20/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds are SW-W 5-15 kts, with gusts 20-25 kts before 03Z, then becoming VRB 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 20/18Z through Friday 22/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds are SW-W winds 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. Winds are west through southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each day, along with a minimum RH of 5-15%. Friday through Sunday....Continued dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds are west through southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum RH is 5-15% on Friday, then 10-20% on Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  002 FXUS66 KSGX 192131 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 231 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures for the mountains and deserts will warm through Thursday. High temperatures for the coast and valleys will warm several more degrees today, then slowly cool into next weekend. Night and morning coastal low clouds will return and increase in coverage during the middle of the week, then spread farther into the inland valleys by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... As of 2:00 PM PDT, satellite depicts mostly clear skies with an isolated patch of cirrus clouds. Temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday inland, reaching into the mid-to-upper 80s through the Inland Empire and the upper 70s/low 80s for inland areas of San Diego and Orange Counties. Most of the lowlands are experiencing a typical May sea breeze. The San Diego to Tonopah pressure gradient has remained constant at around -5 mbs, yielding to offshore flow (N/NE winds) and lower humidity through most of the Inland Empire and in the mountains. As a result, relative humidities are 10-20% in the mountains and 15-30% through the Inland Empire. The sea breeze boundary will push eastward through the foothills and mountains this afternoon, increasing humidities this evening through the boundary layer - below 3000-400 feet elevation. This morning's sounding showed a marine layer thickness of around 2500 feet deep, and with similar 700-mb heights, the marine layer should settle to a similar depth tonight, where humidities will mostly recover above 50% overnight (80% closer to the coast). Clouds will struggle to develop, however, and should be restricted to coastal San Diego County should any clouds develop (65-75% chance). While 500-mb heights don't change much, the weak surface high pressure in the Great Basin creating offshore flow will continue to move eastward. Temperatures will warm in the deserts through Thursday, which will increase the onshore pressure gradient and enhance the sea breeze. The marine layer will gradually deepen each day, with higher chances for more broad coverage into the Inland Empire Thursday morning. While there isn't a strong temperature trend this week, temperatures peak Wednesday for inland areas (mid-80s - low 90s) and Thursday through the low deserts (approaching 100 degrees). && .LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)... Temperatures in the mountains and deserts look to remain relatively constant through next Monday. At the coast and through the inland valleys, temperatures look to gradually decrease a degree or two each day through Sunday, with perhaps a steeper decrease in temperatures Monday onward, contingent upon a trough digging deep from the Pacific Northwest into Southern California. Based on WPC 500-mb clusters, about 30% of ensemble runs are converging on this solution, while others build a ridge to the northwest, though keeping heights above Southern California around normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... 191700Z...Mostly clear skies expected through early Wednesday morning. Offshore breezes with strongest gusts 20-25 kts through mountain passes and foothills will diminish within the next few hours. 30-70% chance for low clouds based 1000-2000 ft MSL over coastal San Diego County after 11z (highest chances near KSAN). Low clouds will scatter to the coast by 16-17z Wed. && .MARINE... West-northwest winds will gust to near 20 kts over outer coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday morning. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Westerink AVIATION/MARINE...KW  701 FXUS66 KOTX 192144 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 244 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - Potential cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday: Region remains on the backside of ridge extending into northern BC. Tuesdays afternoons instability will subside and calmer conditions expected tonight. Most of the region will remain in a dry, warming trend for the next several days. Weak shortwaves will continue to move North to South along the backside of the ridge. Along with afternoon heat, the waves will generate enough instability to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Best locations continue to be Northeast WA and the Idaho Panhandle with a 10-20% probability. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 30 mph and very small hail around pea size or less. Winds will also be breezy down the Okanogan Valley with gusts near 30 mph for Wednesday afternoon. The ridge shifts east and over the Inland Northwest. It will keep Thursday and Friday drier and warmer than previous days. Saturday will start a transition period as the the ridge starts to breakdown and trough begins to move into the Pacific Northwest. Highs for the period will be in the 70s to low 80s. Minor heat risk is expected across the region. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and low 50s. Sunday through Wednesday: Ensembles are in good agreement with the ridge breakdown and trough arrival. The main difference is timing. The GEFS is pushing it across the region starting late Sunday through Monday. The ECMWF is about 24 hours slower. Either way, the start of next week is expected to cooler and wetter than the end of this week. Snow levels will lower to around 5000 ft to perhaps bring light snow for the higher elevations of the Cascades. Precip amounts are expected to be light with a range of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across far northeast Washington and north Idaho. with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Chances for showers are lower for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE around 5-10% this afternoon. Winds will increase 20Z across much of the Inland Northwest with gusts up to 20 knots and wane after sunset. The speed increase will be delayed slightly for the Cascade valleys with sustained winds 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots after 00Z at KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 45 70 43 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 45 68 42 71 47 74 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 Pullman 43 66 41 69 44 73 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 47 71 47 74 49 78 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Colville 40 74 37 76 43 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 43 67 41 70 45 73 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Kellogg 43 67 41 71 45 75 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Moses Lake 45 77 48 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 50 77 52 78 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 47 77 47 78 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$