486 FXUS66 KPQR 192200 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 300 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and benign weather is expected across the region through much of the next week with high pressure remaining in place over the Northeast Pacific. Weak systems aloft may bring enhanced cloud cover on some days, but rain chances are minimal. Uncertainty in the forecast increases Sunday into Monday as chances for precipitation return. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Monday night...Broad upper-level ridging continues to build over the Northeast Pacific with persistent northwesterly flow streaming onshore from the Gulf of Alaska. This pattern will remain largely the same through Wednesday, with weak upper shortwaves bringing marine air inland and allowing pockets of mist or drizzle along the coast through the overnight and early morning hours. Temperatures will remain seasonable, around 60 degrees on the coast and near 70 degrees along the I-5 corridor. As offshore ridging shifts east late in the week, temperatures will trend warmer, reaching the 60s to near 70 degrees on the coast and upper 70s to mid 80s inland. This will support widespread Minor HeatRisk excepting only the immediate coast and high Cascade crest. Chances for Moderate HeatRisk are 20-35% in Portland and the adjacent northern Willamette Valley, 5-20% in Salem and Albany/Corvallis, and 5% or less elsewhere. Concerns for hazardous weather otherwise remain low. Friday through the holiday weekend, uncertainty in the evolution and possible break-down of the upper-level ridge yields growing uncertainty in forecast temperatures and precipitation. In general, as the ridge deamplifies, temperatures are more likely to trend cooler through the period, especially by Monday. The 80%-confidence envelope (the difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles) in temperature widens from 8-13 degrees on Friday and Saturday to 13-19 degrees on Sunday and Monday along the I-5 corridor, with warmer scenarios resulting from a more persistent ridge and cooler scenarios from a more rapid break down. There continues to be greater consensus of an upper-level trough digging over the Northeast Pacific on Monday, supporting much cooler temperatures and 30-60% chances for rain across the region, with the highest chances to the north of US-20 and in areas of higher terrain. -36 && .AVIATION...An upper level ridge offshore will maintain northwesterly flow across the airspace. Current satellite and surface observations (as of 16Z Tue) show generally VFR conditions with pockets of MVFR for inland locations and mostly VFR conditions with MVFR/IFR conditions for locations north of KONP. These conditions are expected to persist through the majority of the TAF period. It should be noted that guidance is showing a very weak, upper level disturbance, around 09Z-12Z Wed that could result in lowered flight conditions (IFR/LIFR) along the coast as well as some MVFR conditions backbuilding along the Cascades and pushing eastward into the Willamette Valley. This is resulting in a 45-65% chance for IFR conditions along the coast, a 25-35% chance for LIFR and a 35-55% chance for MVFR conditions for inland locations. If these conditions manifest, improvement in overall flight conditions across the airspace should start towards the very end of the TAF period. North/northwest winds 6-10 kt persist through the TAF period with gusts up to 20 kt possible along the coast starting around 20Z-22Z Tue through around 04Z Wed. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions expected through the majority of the TAF period. Guidance shows backbuilding clouds along the Cascades pushing eastward starting around 09Z Wed. This is resulting in a 35-55% chance for MVFR conditions developing and impacting the terminal. If these conditions manifest, improvement towards VFR starting around 18Z Wed. North/northwest winds 6-10 kt persist through the TAF period. -42 && .MARINE...Northerlies are expected to persist through much of the week as the summer-like pattern settles in. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as a surface thermal trough strengthens over the region. Therefore, have updated the current suite of Small Craft Advisories as gusts up to 25 kt are expected across all zones with the exception of PZZ251, this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 feet are expected through the week as well. Chances increase on Thursday and Friday for widespread wind gusts for all marine zones. Small Craft Advisories are in place for the Columbia River Bar Wednesday morning due to strong/very strong ebb currents which will produce conditions hazardous to small craft. Strong/very strong ebb currents are possible during the morning hours each day this week. -42/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ252-253- 271-272. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ252-271-272. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ253. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  882 FXUS63 KDDC 192221 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 521 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably cool temperatures continue through Wednesday. - Rain chances (70-90%) return Wednesday night/Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a broad trough of low pressure slowly transitioning east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is expanding eastward across the Northern High Plains into the Dakotas. Unseasonably cool/dry conditions will persist early in the period as surface high pressure shifts east across the Upper Midwest tonight, and into the Great Lakes Region Wednesday. Rain chances (70-90%) return Wednesday night as the SREF indicates a series of H5 vort maxima associated with an upper level shortwave trough ejecting out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a prevailing east-southeast upslope flow will pull moisture into southwest/south central Kansas pushing surface dewpoints back up into the 50s(F), bringing about minimal instability. Combined with a modest field of +50kt southwesterlies aloft and sufficient lift within easterly upsloping, rain development is expected across portions of western Kansas Wednesday evening and continuing into Thursday. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with some instability present. As suggest by the HREF, the best chance for appreciable rainfall will be across west central Kansas into portions of southwest Kansas where there is a 70-90% probability of 24-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by early Thursday morning. Additional periods of light/moderate rain are possible through the day Thursday with a broader scale upper level trough holding in place across the Intermountain West. Unseasonably cool temperatures are likely tonight as surface high pressure moving through the Upper Midwest reinforces the cooler air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas. Look for lows generally in the 40s(F) with the HREF painting a 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 45F across much of southwest Kansas to only a 10-30% probability of slipping below 45F in south central Kansas. The trend continues Wednesday with easterly upsloping doing little to erode the air mass in place, holding H85 temperatures to around 10-12C across the area. Widespread afternoon highs in the 60s(F) can be expected with the HREF indicating a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F with highs nearing 70F in south central Kansas. Similar temperatures are likely Thursday, especially with lingering precip and prevailing mostly cloudy to overcast skies. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 520 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with mostly clear skies. Some mid level clouds may move into the GCK and LBL terminals tomorrow afternoon. Winds will generally be form the east northeast through tomorrow. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...Hovorka_42  858 FXUS65 KPIH 192220 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 420 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and freeze conditions continue again into Wednesday morning. - Gradual warming trend is underway this week. - Best chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 General "troughiness" remains over eastern Idaho today, continuing our mildly unsettled pattern. Any precipitation chances today and fairly limited to the higher elevations farther north. Afternoon wind gusts will fall into the 20-25 mph range for most. Light winds and partly cloud conditions overnight will keep us a few degrees warmer than this morning was, so have gone with a FREEZE WARNING for the Mud Lake/Arco Desert zone where temperatures will be between 29 and 32 degrees and FROST ADVISORY for the rest of our Snake River Plain zones where temperatures will be between 33 and 37 degrees. After Wednesday morning, we might get a break from frost/freeze products on Thursday morning, though the Mud Lake/Arco Desert zone will be close once again. One shortwave moves out of the area on Wednesday for a low to drop south of out Canada and into northern Montana late Wednesday into Thursday. The troughing associated with that low will impact us late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the Central Mountains, Eastern Highlands, and upper Snake River Plain. Precipiation will spread southeast through Wednesday night and any Thursday activity would be in the Eastern and Southeastern Highlands. This overnight movement of moisture will bring some light snow to the mountain tops, but impacts to travel is not expected. By Thursday, winds will swing around to be out of the north and cool us off a few degrees from the mid and upper 60s on Wednesday to the low and mid 60s on Thursday. Given the northerly winds, we may need a LAKE WIND ADVISORY, too, but it is borderline. By Friday morning, temperatures will be chilly again, ranging from the low 30s to low 40s for most. But drier conditions are back by Friday morning, too, and will stay mostly dry through the holiday weekend with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s to low 80s by Saturday and more 80s on Sunday and Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 420 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Most of the heat of the day clouds should dissipate this evening. Winds expected to go mainly light as well. Should see slightly stronger winds for Wednesday with a few more clouds as well in the afternoon. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for IDZ051- 053>055. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for IDZ052. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMM AVIATION...13  942 FXUS63 KGLD 192222 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 422 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week. - Marginal severe risk Thursday afternoon and evening, primarily in Colorado, but could see that into northwest Kansas through the evening hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough will remain anchored over the western CONUS through Thursday, then will merge with a closed upper low over the northern Rockies on Friday. Shortwaves ejecting eastward from these systems will result in occasional chances for shower and isolated thunderstorms. The first wave moves out of southern Colorado tonight and northeastward into central Nebraska tomorrow. Scattered light rain showers will develop tonight through Wednesday morning, best chances will be north of Interstate 70. Some weak instability does develop along the Front Range Wednesday afternoon where scattered thunderstorms will develop. Deep layer shear around 50kts will be sufficient for supercells as they migrate eastward across the plains, but with rapidly diminishing instability do not think they will impact our area. However, the remnant showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm with some weak MUCAPE will be moving across the area Wednesday evening. Not expecting any hazards with this activity other than localized wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Showers should persist into the overnight hours with the upper trough axis still to the west, with best chances south of Interstate 70. Thursday will see a somewhat similar scenario, but shifted northward as the northern Rockies upper low strengthens and a stronger shortwave trough moves across eastern Colorado at the time of peak heating. The instability axis will shift further east and the REFS has a corridor of 1000-1500 j/kg from Limon to Fort Morgan along with 35kts of deep layer shear. While the surface-based instability will rapidly weaken after 00Z, MUCAPE of at least 500 j/kg as well as deep layer shear of 40kts are forecast as the showers and thunderstorms move in from Colorado Thursday night. The parameters suggest a marginally severe storm or two will be possible with some pockets of MUCAPE up to 1000 j/kg forecast by the NAM through about 06z before weakening. NBM has rain amounts of up to 1" in eastern Colorado Thursday evening with the stronger storms, then around 0.25-0.50" in the rest of the area overnight with rain and isolated storms. The upper trough axis and associated surface cold front will be slowly moving through the area Friday morning with showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing. This morning activity should limit the afternoon instability, though it is possible some clearing could occur on the western and southern edges of the forecast area. Also will need to see where the front ends up in the afternoon as new convection could develop along it. However, both the GFS and ECMWF currently have the front well to the south, entering Oklahoma, while the NAM is slower and has the front in the southern part of the area. Since this is still a few days out and there will be multiple days of convection which may impact the ultimate timing and location of the front, confidence is low in the details and any potential severe hazards on Friday. Temperatures through the period show little variation with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 110 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Saturday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough along the Rocky Mountains. Expect mostly sunny skies and a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70sfor Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25-35% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties Sunday and Monday. Warm temperatures continue Tuesday with highs forecast in the 80s. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible Tuesday for the western CWA. With relative humidity (RH) values overall trending down and forecast in the low 20s for Tuesday, fire weather potential will need to be monitored through the week. Models are in disagreement on the track and evolution of a surface low off the coast of Baja California that starts to develop late Sunday. If this surface low ends up tracking toward our region, we have potential for an active pattern and severe weather potential late next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 418 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Scattered showers may briefly impact KMCK around 12z Wednesday morning, with ceilings and visibility slightly lowered but expected to remain VFR. The showers move northward by mid morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in Colorado Wednesday afternoon will be approaching KGLD by late in the afternoon, but probably not arrive until after 00Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...024  564 FXUS62 KMFL 192235 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 635 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 634 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through at least Wednesday evening as breezy easterly winds prevail. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are the main threats. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all urban areas through the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 107 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Overall forecast remains on track. Scattered thunderstorms over the interior and SW FL this afternoon into early evening. The scattered coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms expected late tonight and overnight. Lows tonight range from the upper 60s to lower 70s over inland locations, to upper 70s across the east coast metro. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Rinse and repeat weather pattern similar to what we've seen the last few days across South Florida. A cut-off upper low will continue to meander near the Bahamas, edging slightly closer to Florida through the middle of the week. This disturbance looks to advect a few vorticity impulses into the vicinity of Florida's eastern coastline. This will provide some extra forcing for isolated to scattered showers to develop along the instability ridden Gulfstream waters during the overnight and morning hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The 00z MFL sounding shows quite a moist environment, with a PWAT of 1.91 inches and high relative humidity values from top to bottom. Along with CAPE values near 2000 J/kg, this has allowed for some gusty showers to develop across Miami Dade over the last few hours. Light showers should continue through the early morning hours before activity then shifts to sea-breeze induced thunderstorms over interior and southwest Florida. Predominant easterly flow should once again keep the Gulf breeze pinned closer to the coastline, so highest PoPs and strongest storms will favor coastal Monroe and Collier counties for both today and Wednesday. Thermodynamics will be similar to the last few days, with steep low level lapse rates and surface based CAPE values up to 3000 J/kg. Weak forcing, weak steering flow, and weak shear, will make for most activity to be pulse-y and slow moving, with new updrafts mainly forming along collision boundaries. Model forecast soundings and upper level water vapor imagery seem to indicate that some increased mid-level dry air will work its way into the region over the next couple of days. This may be part of the reason as to why models have trended slightly drier for Tuesday's activity. This may also serve to suppress more mature storm growth, so confidence for any strong to severe thunderstorms is once again very low and most activity should remain relatively low topped. On the flip side, "if" thunderstorms grow big enough (and that's a big "if" given the weak mid-level lapse rates), the drier mid-level air could help induce a few stronger wind gusts, which is supported by DCAPE values near 750 J/kg. What is described above would also be true for Wednesday's activity, except conditions trend slightly drier with PWATs dropping into the 1.4 to 1.5 inch range. Overall, the main threats will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Rain amounts will generally be between 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with locally heavier amounts of 3 to 5 inches under stronger storms. Generally breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 28 mph across the region during the afternoon. Hightemperatures slightly above average, in the upper 80s to low 90s, will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all metro areas. Nighttime lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s near the coasts and lower 70s inland. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The pattern will remain generally unchanged for the latter part of the week and through the weekend, with upper level ridging extending across the Gulf and the aforementioned upper level low continuing to meander over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters and extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining healthy moisture advection along the atmospheric column. Ensemble guidance places PWAT values during the period solidly near the climatological normals for this time of year (1.5- 1.7 inches) while model soundings show this moisture permeating the whole column (and not just the lower levels like was the case earlier this month). With prevailing easterly flow and ample moisture in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries each afternoon. Although some isolated activity will likely develop over the East Coast metro early each afternoon, the better chances for more widespread activity (in the 50-70% range) will be spread out across southwest Florida and the interior where the sea breezes are forecast to meet each day. Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), although some of the shower activity could help provide some brief, localized relief and help temper conditions. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Easterly winds 5-10 kts overnight with scattered showers and isolated coastal storms across the east coast metro. Winds increase to 10-15 kts after 15Z with and afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected to continue through the rest of today across the Atlantic waters due to persistent easterly winds of 15 to 20 kts. Winds look to weaken slightly for the latter half of the week. Isolated weak showers are possible for the Gulfstream waters through the morning each day this week. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will favor the Gulf coast and Gulf waters, where gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any storm. Atlantic seas will be 2-4 feet through the rest of the week, while the Gulf will remain 2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Continued High Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches through the middle of the week due to persistent easterly flow. Guidance is beginning to show that the risk of rip currents will start to taper off towards the latter half of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 88 78 89 / 20 20 20 10 West Kendall 74 89 74 90 / 20 20 20 20 Opa-Locka 77 89 77 90 / 20 20 20 10 Homestead 76 88 76 89 / 30 30 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 78 86 79 87 / 20 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 77 86 78 87 / 20 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 78 90 78 91 / 20 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 78 86 78 88 / 20 20 10 20 Boca Raton 78 86 78 87 / 30 20 10 10 Naples 74 91 74 91 / 20 70 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMP LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...CMF  678 FXUS66 KEKA 192237 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 337 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Clear and dry conditions will remain through the week with a warming trend through Thursday. A weak and shallow marine layer will hang along shore. Temperatures will trend lower this weekend weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Northerly winds are much lighter, but will be breezy in the afternoons close to shore. -Generally clear skies and dry conditions, even along shore, through the week. -Conditions will warm through Thursday with highs in the interior peaking near 90. && .DISCUSSION...Weak high pressure arching over the area has made for slowly warming and dry but otherwise benign weather. Clear skies in the interior and weak winds has allowed for highs to warm back into the mid and upper 80s. Similarly, a slowly building but diffuse marine inversion has made for cooler and hazy conditions along shore. High pressure will quickly but briefly build over the next couple days. Heat will peak around Thursday with above average interiors highs in the low 90s. HeatRisk, however, will be mostly minor. A sharper marine inversion combined with onshore flow will most likely support the formation of a a more proper, shallow marine layer the next few nights, but daytime clearing remains most likely (80%) each afternoon. Still, the coast will most likely keep highs below 70. High pressure will weaken again this weekend, allow for slight cooling and more marine influence to push inland. Most models show a stronger and more consistent layer of marine stratus forming around Humboldt Bay and other protected areas, aided by gentle but persistent onshore flow. Most ensemble members continue to show a trough dipping across the Pacific Northwest early next week. The trough, however, will most likely be dry with only light drizzle on the coast and some weak showers inland. Even on the far North Coast, the chance of wetting rain is less than 10 percent. /JHW && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...VFR conditions are being observed at all terminals early this afternoon. Gusty northerly winds, especially at the coast, are likely this afternoon. CEC could see gusts nearing or exceeding 30 kts. Winds are likely to ease overnight. Lighter winds overnight may allow stratus to form near the coast. Prevailing, light east winds at ACV may keep this offshore, or keep impacts brief and periodic. Should there be impacts, the stratus is likely to be shallow with LIFR to IFR ceilings. CEC is likely to remain stratus-free as north winds prevail overnight. VFR conditions are likely for the interior areas overnight. JB && .MARINE...North winds remain strong, especially in the outer waters and around Point St. George and in the lee of Cape Mendocino. Gales are expected to continue in these areas for much of the work week. Steep to very steep, hazardous seas will also continue with wind waves of 8 to 13 ft at 8 to 10 seconds and a mid period northwest swell at around 5 to 7 ft. This swell has peaked and will subside over the coming days. A break in the winds is likely this weekend as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Seas will also ease this weekend, and could be below 6 ft in the inner waters by Saturday evening. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450- 455. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 10 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow uson Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  138 FXUS62 KILM 192247 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 647 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. As of 2 PM EDT... Discussions updated. Chances for precip on Thursday are now mainly focused in the late day and overnight period due to a later cold front arrival. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures remain well above normal through Thursday, particularly for areas west of I-95. 2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures remain well above normal through Thursday, particularly for areas west of I-95. An upper high centered near Bermuda and another over the southern Gulf are connected by a ridge axis across the interior Southeast US, and this is responsible for the sustained period of hot inland temperatures which should last through Thursday. Sinking air below the upper ridge will create a deep warm, dry layer in the middle troposphere, supporting abnormally warm surface temperatures. Models continue their 850 mb temp forecasts of +16C to 18C (at or above the 90th percentile climatological values for this time of year), which maintains high confidence in our forecast of 90+ degree heat continuing through Thursday for locations away from the daily cooling influences of the sea breeze. Our forecast is for 90+ degree heat inland through Thursday. Since Florence and Lumberton highs reached 90 degrees starting on Sunday, a five day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of four days of 90 degree temps recorded from April 15-18 in both Florence and Lumberton. Coastal portions of the Carolinas should remain significantly cooler than inland due to sustained south winds dragging air across nearshore water temps in the middle 70s. Guidance tools remain in line with the front settling through on Thursday night, even making it offshore by Friday morning. However, they are quick to lift the front back northward during the day on Friday, with it likely ending up north of US-76 and near or west of I-95 by early afternoon. Where this front ends up will influence the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, and subsequently, the max temperatures each day. Current forecast max temps may be a few degrees too cool if the coverage of precip ends up more isolated. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. Dry weather will come to an end as a front shifts in from the north on Thursday and subsidence aloft weakens enough to permit at least isolated pop-up convection on Thursday, with perhaps some focused development along the front itself overnight Thursday night. However, the front is expected to lift back northward on Friday before stalling across northwestern portions of the area or just north of there. Overall, the best chances exist across northwestern portions of the forecast area each afternoon at least through Monday, particularly between the stalled front and the inland- pushing sea breeze each day. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through 06Z. Boundary layer winds remain elevated tonight, but shallow ground fog may produce some impacts around sunrise. Lightest winds will be across northeastern SC and just inland from the coast. CRE should be dealing with their typical tidal creek impacts along with ILM. FLO has the lowest confidence. LBT may see some shallow fog, but chances are lower toward the north and west. The sea breeze will dominate the area during the afternoon with gusts along the coast up to 15 knots. Extended Forecast... Moderate confidence in MVFR/IFR vsbys/ceilings each morning, generally in the 08z-12z timeframe. Restrictions are possible due to showers/storms starting Thu. Potential for daytime restrictions Friday and Saturday due to convection. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...High confidence in mainly benign, summer-like conditions due to prevailing Bermuda high pressure resulting in southerly winds mainly 10 kt or less across the local area. However, winds will be slightly enhanced Wednesday afternoon near the coast due to the sea breeze with gusts up to 20 kt. 2-3 foot, 8-9 second southeast swells will continue to dominate the wave spectrum. Wednesday night through Sunday... Offshore high pressure will maintain control through the week. A backdoor front is expected to settle towards the waters on Thursday night and may briefly move offshore early Friday morning before lifting back northward on Friday. Generally south to southeast winds can be expected until the front draws near, with a period of east or even northeast winds possible near the coast if the front can push offshore. Sustained winds are expected to stay between 5-15 kts, with enhanced nearshore gustiness due to the sea breeze likely each day. Seas are expected to hold in the 2-3 ft range in the 0-20nmi zone and 3-4 ft range in the 20-60nmi zone through the period, mainly driven by persistent southeasterly swells with a period of 8-9 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM/21 KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...21 MARINE...RJB/ABW  183 FXUS62 KMHX 192249 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 649 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Discussion was updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal to near- record high temperatures and rain- free conditions to continue Wednesday. 2) A frontal system approaches the area Thursday, bringing the next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath an anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through tomorrow. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses this afternoon and tomorrow's yielding highs generally in the lower 90s across the coastal plain, but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s. This will fall a few degrees short of records, but is still around 10 degrees above normal for mid to late May. Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging aloft will provide sufficient subsidence to suppress convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze (the usual suspect spots over Dare County and Down East Carteret come to mind here). Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the forecast this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break down some starting Thursday and into the weekend, allowing a front to drop south late Thursday into Friday and then stall as it encounters the persistent ridging that has been over the region for much of the past week. Confidence continues to increase on the front reaching our CWA, with the most likely outcome being the front briefly stalling between the NC/SC border and Cape Hatteras. The front will likely linger over the area for a couple days before the boundary eventually lifts back northward over the weekend with ridging building back in its wake. The trend of a slower frontal passage has held this morning, with the front not reaching our area from the north until mid-afternoon. Therefore, forecast highs will once again reach the 80s and 90s with persistent southerly flow. Increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance depicts a 30-40% chance of over a quarter inch of rainfall, especially along and north of Highway 64 along the frontal boundary on Thursday. Ahead of the front, the pre- storm environment should be sufficiently unstable for a few storms as CAPE rises to 1000-1500 J/kg. With forecast steep low-level lapse rates and modest dry air aloft, combined with PWATs in the 1.5-1.75" range, the environment would be marginally conducive for the risk of a strong downburst in a more organized storm. Said organization, however, would require some amount of deep level shear and this appears lacking with 0-6 km values under 20 kt. The odds of a stronger storm appear to be around 10% or less as of this afternoon, in line with CSU and NCAR ML guidance, but trends will continue to be monitored. The severe risk will likely be muted on Friday with the frontal boundary to our south, then return to a low-probability regime for Saturday. Beyond here, the front becomes weak enough that diurnal sea and sound breezes become dominant, focusing the highest shower and thunderstorm chances inland. Each of these days carries a low, highly conditional severe risk as well per ML guidance. Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. While probs are low, if wedo see training storms over urban areas like Greenville, Jacksonville, and New Bern, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing drought. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another rinse and repeat forecast for tonight as there will be little change in airmass. Pred VFR conditions this evening will continue until about midnight. Then much like the last few nights, after midnight chances for LIFR/IFR fog and low stratus return as yet another night of light winds and ample low level moisture persist across ENC. Best chances to see fog or low stratus will be across our SW'rn zones so (OAJ/EWN/ISO terminals) with a slightly lower chance the further north and east you get. Lower vis/ceilings start around the 04-06Z timeframe near OAJ terminal and adjacent areas and expand north and east as the night progresses to the other terminals and adjacent areas. Locally dense fog will be possible. Conditions improve quickly after 12z with VFR conditions then forecast through all of Wednesday once they improve. Otherwise S'rly winds become light tonight and then increase Wed afternoon with gusts up around 15-20 kts behind the seabreeze. Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions Thu into the weekend. && .MARINE... A summer-like pattern continues through tomorrow, with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters within 20nm of the coast, where funneling could result in some brief periods of 25kt gusts in the afternoon. Seas will continue to hover around 2-3ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening. Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area Thursday, then meander around the area through the upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front, with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the front across the Ablemarle Sound and adjacent waters on Thursday afternoon and evening. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Sunday as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MS AVIATION...CQD/RCF MARINE...MS  268 FXUS64 KBRO 192251 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 551 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 549 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Key Messages: * Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across ALL of Deep South Texas late tonight into Wednesday morning. * Daily rain/thunderstorm chances continue into next week. * Hot and humid conditions will continue this week with a Moderate to Major Heat Risk today and tomorrow. * A High Risk for Rip Currents is also in effect through this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 This week into next will feature multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist into early next week, with multiple perturbations tracking over the region. At the surface, ample moisture will be in place and pool ahead of a stalled frontal boundary in central Texas. Combined, this will lead to daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. PWATs will remain extremely high across the area at 1.75-2.5 inches through the week, which is well above normal, so any convection that does develop could produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Tonight, there is a conditional threat for severe weather across Deep South Texas and the Storm Prediction Center has placed ALL of Deep South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level of 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms through tonight. A complex of thunderstorms will develop north of the region and move south/southeast late tonight into Wednesday morning. If this line holds together through Deep South Texas and is severe, the main threats will be damaging winds in excess of 58 mph and large hail. Brief heavy rain will also be possible with this activity and could lead to localized ponding of water. The Storm Prediction Center keeps Deep South Texas in a general risk of thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, though we can not rule out the potential for additional severe weather through the week. The Weather Prediction Center has placed Zapata, Jim Hogg, western Starr and northwestern Brooks counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall on Wednesday, and all of Deep South Texas in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday though Saturday. Now through Sunday morning we are currently expecting generally 1 to 2 inches across the region with localized areas of 3 to 4 inches. Areas that see multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms could potentially see higher totals through the weekend. Outside of thunderstorm/rain chances, heat will be an additional weather headline through the week. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s through Saturday. There is a a Moderate to Major Heat Risk today an tomorrow with a Minor to Moderate heat risk Thursday through next Tuesday. At area beaches, there is a high risk of rip currents through this evening. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through 00z Thursday....VFR-MVFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. VFR conditions will be more prevalent during the afternoon-evening hours with MVFR conditions more prevalent during the night-morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight in association with a squall line that will be approaching from central Texas. Currently, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in whether or not those storms make it into the Rio Grande Valley. That said, at this time, have not included shower or thunderstorm headlines in the TAFs. Southeast winds will continue through the forecast period with speeds between 8-13 knots and gusts as high as 20-25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Slightly adverse marine conditions continue on the Laguna Madre andGulf Waters through tonight becoming more favorable through the rest of the forecast period. Ongoing shower and thunderstorms chances through the weekend may lead to localized higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 92 80 91 / 10 10 10 30 HARLINGEN 78 92 76 91 / 20 10 10 50 MCALLEN 79 94 78 92 / 30 20 20 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 94 75 91 / 40 40 40 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 81 85 / 20 10 10 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 90 79 89 / 20 10 10 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...23-Evbuoma  347 FXUS63 KBIS 192253 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 553 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain well below normal through tonight when lows could fall to near or below freezing across much of eastern and central North Dakota. - Slightly warmer Wednesday through Friday, with medium chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms beginning Wednesday evening. - Above normal temperatures favored this weekend and especially early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No significant changes needed for the early evening update. Winds will subside over central ND. In the west, winds are beginning to shift southerly. This trend will spread east into central ND tonight. Clear to partly cloudy skies this evening with frost/freeze highlights over all of central and portions of western ND. Increasing winds and clouds later tonight in the west are expected to limit the extent of any frost, and keep temperatures above freezing, especially in the far west. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough continues to dig across Western CONUS locking in a cooler airmass across the Plains. Surface high pressure continues to move overhead. This will help clear skies this afternoon and lead to cool overnight temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s to 60s across the area. Clear skies and radiational cooling are forecast to lead to low temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s. There is a good shot of freeze and frost occurring tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern and parts of central North Dakota while a Frost Advisory has been issued across parts for southwestern and central North Dakota. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s and 70s. Wind will shift from northwesterly tonight to southeasterly tomorrow as surface high pressure shifts off to the southeast in Minnesota and surface low pressure moves into eastern Montana. This will lead to breezy conditions across the central and eastern half of the state by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into the northwest by the afternoon hours as an upper level wave approaches the region. An upper level low is forecast to stall out over southern Saskatchewan Thursday and Friday. Cyclonic flow aloft will usher in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms until the end of the week. There is around 70 percent chance that that portions of western and central North Dakota could see up to 0.25 of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This cooler pattern will keep temperatures in the 60s to 70s daily until warming up by the weekend. The NBM 25th percentile begins to push the upper 70s to lower 80s and the NBM 75th percentile has lower 90s. There is fairly high confidence for warm weather to start off next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. Northwest surface flow this evening will become light then shift south to southeast by Wednesday morning. Stronger winds aloft will result in a period of LLWS at KDIK and KXWA late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Mainly mid and high clouds AOA 6KFT develop later tonight through the day Wednesday. An isolated sprinkle is possible later tonight through Wednesday morning. Low precipitation chances move into western ND Wednesday afternoon, but too much uncertainty to include a mention of showers at TAF sites ATTIM. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ003-004-012-019-020-022-035-041-042-044- 055>062. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ005-013- 023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...TWH