697 FXUS63 KLMK 200105 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 905 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered storms this afternoon followed by a more prominent line of storms this evening will bring heavy downpours and severe potential for severe wind gusts and small hail. Southern IN counties and KY counties that border the Ohio have the best potential. * There is flooding potential for the storms that move through tonight, especially in our southern IN counties. * Another surge of moisture moves in by Wednesday morning, keeping clouds and rain for everyone and scattered storms for eastern locations by the afternoon. * Busy weather pattern sets up Wednesday through the remainder of the week, with widespread moderate rainfall expected Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 905 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 With the loss of daytime heating much of the afternoon activity has either moved our or dissipated. A few more isolated to scattered areas of showers and storms are likely to develop before a second wave of activity is expected late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Sfc boundary will continue to approach from the northwest as activity currently over Arkansas along with a midlevel shortwave will surge into the area with additional shower and thunderstorms. Severe threat with this activity appears low but our attention turns to flooding concern, especially acrosss southern IN where they are saturated from last night's event. Only adjustments in the grid was to account for this slight lull in activity before the next wave begins late tonight and tomorrow morning. The rest of the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently, temperatures are warm in the mid to upper 80s with mixed cloud cover area wide. A few communities have already seen rain today from two axis of showers and storms trying to form in our western and eastern counties. The severe threat for strong to severe gusty winds aren't expected from these ongoing storms, at least not until later this evening from an approaching line of storms from the northwest. However, what is popping up on radar still has the potential for some small hail stones and gusty winds before the main event arrives. The synoptic setup features troughing in the Plains with continued ridging in the east. The overall weather pattern though will be changing as early as tonight as a trailing cold front from a surface low up in southern Canada will move across the Ohio Valley this evening through Wednesday afternoon. This front is very slow, and will help initiate a line of storms across the Midwest that will move into our CWA this evening. This more prominent line of storms, preceded by pop up storms ahead of the main line, will move in from the northwest well ahead of the cold front. There is plenty of SBCAPE for this line to tap into however as they approach and develop near our CWA, the best shear will move north into the Great Lakes and Southern Canada. Once evening sits in as the storms move in, this means they will slowly be weakening as they trek across our counties. Despite this, multi- cell clusters forming into bowing line segments are possible bringing severe to strong gusty winds and small hail if some of the storms could grow tall enough. With CAPE values ranging 2500 - 3000 J/kg or higher this afternoon in southern IN and western KY, hail can't be ruled out. The highest severe threat is in southern IN and into KY counties bordering the Ohio. Additionally, PWAT values are running high ranging 1.5-2", favored in southern IN thanks to a surge of moisture from the SW. Dewpoints will be running high, meaning there is potential for additional flooding this afternoon/evening in the same areas that were hit hard last night, namely southern IN. As a result, a flood watch has been issued for all our southern Indiana counties including Trimble County as well. Our western KY counties are under the same SW plume of moisture too and will be monitored for flooding potential. Should more rain trend to fall in this area, the flood watch may need to be expanded. Rainfall totals are greatest in southern IN, western KY counties, and counties along the Ohio have a 70-80% chance of receiving ranging around 0.5 - 1", with localized areas of 2+" according to HREF LPMM data in training storms. Elsewhere in central/southern KY including cities like Lexington, rainfall totals will generally by around 0.25-0.5" or lower by early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will cool this evening into the 60s and 70s with weak winds and lowering cloud heights. Rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue tonight with spotty coverage until a weak developing low pushes up from Arkansas Wednesday morning following along our slow-moving cold front. This will keep a steady supply of moisture for everyone Wednesday morning. A few weak embedded storms and rumbles of thunder are possible then, especially in our far southeastern counties that may partially clear. Later in the afternoon with partial clearing, continued WAA in the east, and CAPE values nearing 1000+ J/kg, some gusty winds may be possible with a few of these storms, though we are not expecting severe weather with Wednesday's convection at this time. This may build up enough instability for a few storms to produce more lightning . As the developing surface low slowly moves east, so will any rain showers and weak storms exit to the east. Highs on Wednesday will vary generally northwest to southeast tomorrow as clouds and the cold front slowly marches eastward. Along and north of the Ohio, highs will be in the low to mid 70s with upper 70s to low 80s in our southeast border counties. Rain showers and storms end Wednesday night with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Thursday's weather seems a little drier compared to Wednesday as the cold front should clear or nearly clear our southern communities by morning. Since this front is stalling so close by, continued rain showers with low PoPs have been continued for our far southern areas, though rain totals look to remain low. Cloud cover remains throughout the day though, limiting our warming Thursday behind the front with highs in the low to upper 70s in a few places. By Friday, a trough exiting on the leeward side of the Rockies in the Mid-Plains will swing our front back north as a warm front with a returning surge of moisture from the southwest. EFI tables suggest a moderately high EFI values for QPF, meaning this incoming surge of moisture could produce a good amount of rain for drought stricken areas across all of the CWA. 25th and 75th percentile rainfall totals range from near 0.5" to 1" of rain during the day on Friday. Timing of this rainfall and when it ends is a little uncertain still, as it appears once Friday's trough clears, there is not much synoptic forcing to sweep the front out of the area. As a result, rain chances could continue into Saturday, further alluded to by moderately high EFI values for QPF Saturday. There is still high uncertainty with rain chances later in the weekend though as LREF clustering analysis shows high spread in the rainfall totals. Should another stalled out front form over KY, more rain is likely, but if the stalled out front moves well to our south, Sunday and early next week will begin dry. Temperature trends this weekend remain warm in the upper 70s to low 80s for highs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 730 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently moving through the area producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Storms to the west are expected to congeal into a line and push through the area tonight. All sites have PROB30s for the forecast period as rain showers are expected to linger through the night. Winds are expected to be VRB as the cold front pushes through, and become more northerly by tomorrow. An overcast sky will remain for majority of the forecast period as this system moves through. Tonight into tomorrow morning ceilings will lower to roughly 1kft from NW to SE. A secondary SCT/BKN cloud deck around 800ft is possible temporarily with rain showers and storms. Lower vis is also expected with heavier rain showers and lower cloud decks. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ032. IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. && $$ UPDATE...BTN SHORT TERM...BKF LONG TERM...BKF AVIATION...CAL  760 FXUS64 KJAN 200106 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 806 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms remain possible over western portions of the area this evening. - The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will need to be monitored for the next several days. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 806 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through tonight... Broad scale ascent, combined with deep moisture and Theta E advection/convergence, is leading to scattered showers and storms across the area. Majority of the convection has struggled and been more of the pulse variety. Any storms that take some northerly propagation the most favorably aligned to the light southerly mean low level bulk shear. Water vapor imagery indicate a broad mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) over the east to southeast TX, which is driving the moist advection into the southeast propagating cold pool. This is keeping continued storm activity, with the highest coverage of colliding boundaries west of the MS River while more isolated coverage to the east. Convective allowing models (CAMs) continue to indicate this will sag to the east-southeast through around midnight, leading to some storms festering through that period. REFS thunder probs persist but continue to go downward after midnight to 1AM, so convection should only be weakening showers as it approaches the Interstate 55 corridor, if that. Lows will be seasonably warm, with some patchy visibility reductions in the Pine Belt and some low stratus overnight through just after daybreak. Updates were shipped out earlier. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 In the near term, the threat for severe weather has diminished some with most guidance showing a more limited shear/thermodynamic environment as a convective system over the ArkLaTex region makes its way toward northwestern portions of our area. The shear/boundary relationship is less than ideal for getting severe weather with this system, however, if storms develop in the increasing low level warm advection during peak ahead of the system, then those storms could move in more favorable direction to take advantage of the low level shear and bring some gusty winds. With all of that said, we've removed the slight risk and trimmed back the marginal risk area some based on the latest guidance. Looking ahead, an unusually long duration of wet weather is setting up for the foreseeable future as a large and persistent trough to ridge longwave pattern sets up over the CONUS. In the big picture, this will bring our region a steady stream of subtropical moisture with seasonably high precipitable water values, and multiple upper level perturbations that will provide lift and help initiate multiple rounds of convective rainfall. Given that precipitation efficiency will be high, we'll need to monitor for potential heavy rainfall threat areas where deep convection can persist the longest. SLU CIPS analogs reveal some heavy rainfall analogs from the historic archives that suggest a flash flood threat could evolve based on our current guidance forecasts, but the details are too uncertain as of now to provide formal messaging. Keep in mind that with each day that accumulates significant rainfall, antecedent conditions will become more favorable for a flood threat. Otherwise, it appears the thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly favorable for severe weather concerns given the deep layer moisture and influence from the southeast CONUS. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 806 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Ongoing showers and storms will persist through around 20/06-08Z Wednesday before anything lingering will be showers at most.Expect stratus to develop overnight, generally MVFR, with most restrictive stratus and some worse visibility reductions/fog (IFR to LIFR) at HBG and PIB after 20/09-13Z Wednesday. Improvements to VFR should occur around 20/14-15Z, with some showers redeveloping before midday. Majority of rain and storm redevelopment will occur after 20/19-21Z and last through the end of the TAF period. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 70 86 69 85 / 60 70 60 80 Meridian 71 89 69 87 / 10 40 40 50 Vicksburg 70 84 69 84 / 80 60 70 80 Hattiesburg 70 90 69 87 / 0 50 20 60 Natchez 71 85 70 85 / 70 60 60 80 Greenville 69 83 68 82 / 90 70 60 90 Greenwood 70 84 68 84 / 80 80 60 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/EC  384 FXUS61 KCTP 200115 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 915 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Little threat for wind gusts over 40 KTS early tonight across NW PA with the line of SHRA/TSRA well in advance of a cold front. * Increasing odds for a noticeably cooler and rather wet start to Memorial Day weekend (lowered max temps for Sat by several deg F with extensive low clouds, llvl easterly flow and periods of rain/drizzle/ridge shrouding fog. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered strong thunderstorms are possible across the NW mtns early tonight, then across south central PA and the Lower Susq Valley Wednesday afternoon 2) Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall (over 1 inch) likely Friday and Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered strong thunderstorms are possible across the NW mtns early tonight, then across south central PA and the Lower Susq Valley Wednesday afternoon SPC trimmed back its SLGT Risk area for SVR out of NW PA with its 0045Z update. A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms will be moving across our NW Mtn zones between 02-05Z with some wind gusts of 35-40 KTS possible, more so across the region south of Route 6 where the best combination of SFC based CAPE over 1000 J/KG and DCAPE of ~1000 J/KG will exist. Elsewhere across Central PA and the Susq Valley, expect a partly to mostly cloudy and rather muggy night with sfc Tds in the low to mid 60s in most places. More comfortable conditions will occur across the NW Mtns where rain-cooled air and sfc dewpoints only around 60F will be found. Dual to multi-Layered clouds with just some widely scattered light showers Wednesday morning will be followed by a few periods of showers in the early-mid afternoon, near and to the north of I-80. Convective focus shifts to south central PA Wednesday afternoon with narrow plume of weak to moderate CAPE fcst ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Steep low level lapse rates may support a few instances of strong to severe winds. The magnitude & location of the severe threat will be highly dependent on CFROPA timing and amount of cloud cover. SPC MRGL risk (level 1/5) covers the southeast half of the CWA where max temps are fcst btwn 80-90F. ----------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall likely Friday and Saturday Relief from the early season heat wave arrives in earnest on Thursday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower vs. Wednesday across the southeast half of the forecast area. Strong high pressure slides from the Lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast to close out the week. Model data shows the high channeling southward down the east-side of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming type event heading into Memorial Day weekend. Earlier shifts noted, "We may not be bearish enough on daytime temperatures." Did trim max temps Saturday down by 4-5 deg F given the thick clouds, moderately strong east-serly llvl flow and periods of soaking rain that will dampen at least the start of the holiday weekend. WPC 48hr QPF amounts are quite wet with a widespread 1-2.5 inches fcst from 12Z Friday to 12Z Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail for this hot afternoon. Winds have become gusty with daytime heating and ridging building from our south, gusts could reach up to 25kts. Convection is already being observed over the southwestern airfields, but forcing is weak making coverage and strength of these storms uncertain for the remainder of today. Instability is high enough that any storm that does develop will likely contain lightning until after sundown. The most likely airfields to be impact by these storms through 00Z will be JST and AOO. Tonight, the low pressure system over the Great Lakes will approach from the northwest. This will cause ceilings to lower and bring additional rain chances from northwest to southeast for the day on Wednesday. MVFR ceilings are likely ahead of the cold front at BFD, JST, AOO, UNV, and IPT. The only site likely to experience IFR ceilings will be BFD early tomorrow morning, elsewhere should remain MVFR or better. Lastly, LLWS mentions were included at our northern terminals (KBFD/KIPT) through the evening/overnight hours as 900 mb winds increase to around 40 kts due to pressure gradient between low pressure over Southern Canada & Bermuda High over the Western Atlantic. Outlook... Wed...Restrictions probable through Wednesday night with widespread showers/storms along CFROPA. Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat-Sun...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CLIMATE... The following climate sites across central Pennsylvania set new daily high temperature records for May 18th: * A record high temperature of 92 degrees was set in Altoona, breaking the previous record of 91 degrees initially set back in 1962. This record was tied two times previously, back in 1996 and 2017. * A record high temperature of 86 degrees was set in Bradford, breaking the previous record of 85 degrees set back in 1962. ** Note: The high temperature for State College will be reported around 7AM on 5/19. This is due to the State College CO-OP observations running 7AM-7AM. Thus, today's (5/18) high temperature will be reported in tomorrow's (5/19) observation. This record, for reference, is 92 degrees set in 1962. --------------------------------------------- Abnormally warm temperatures will continue on May 19th, thus multiple sites could challenge daily record high temperatures. Daily Maximum High Temperatures for May 19th: * Harrisburg: 95F set in 1962 * Williamsport: 96F in in 1996 * Altoona: 92F set in 1996 * Bradford: 85F set in 1962 * State College: 92F set in 1934, tied in 1996. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl/Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl/Bauco DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl/Bauco AVIATION...Bowen CLIMATE...Beaty  447 FXHW60 PHFO 200116 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 316 PM HST Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... The moist trades we have been experiencing will give way to drier trade winds beginning tonight. A consistent pattern of mostly moderate but occasionally strong trades should continue well into next week and perhaps beyond. Wind speeds will increase Wednesday through Thursday night, possibly to wind advisory level, then decrease slightly this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Radar showed scattered showers over the Kona slopes this afternoon, along with isolated windward and mauka showers on all islands. Cloud cover ranged from mostly clear to overcast, with the clearer conditions generally over leeward areas. Showers should weaken around sunset, but a few will continue overnight mainly windward and mauka. Models remain consistent showing trade winds drying out and increasing in speed through Thursday. Higher wind speeds, potentially reaching wind advisory level, will arrive tomorrow and continue into Friday and perhaps Friday night. Showers will decrease both in number and intensity once the drier air arrives, with the main drying occurring Wednesday afternoon into the evening. A consistent moderate to occasionally strong trade wind flow is expected to continue through the weekend and well into next week as a large surface high to our north remains strong enough to dominate our weather. A band or two of enhanced moisture may arrive after the weekend, but it's too soon to time that out reliably. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will strengthen on Wednesday as the atmosphere gradually becomes more stable. Periods of MVFR conditions will primarily affect windward mountain areas, and AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration may be needed tonight and tomorrow morning, with drier conditions settling over the islands Wednesday afternoon. Conditions are borderline for moderate low level turbulence this afternoon, but the set up will become increasingly conducive tonight and Wednesday, which will require AIRMET Tango. && .MARINE... Locally fresh trades become strong with localized near-gales during the latter half of the week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect and will eventually be expanded to all waters as winds and seas build later this week. Small, short to medium period NNW swell filling in today. This will be followed later this week by a small NNW swell emanating from a strong low near the Aleutian Islands. A series of small, long period SSW swells supports near-average surf along S shores. Meanwhile, strengthening trades maintain elevated surf and short period fresh swell along E facing shores into next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ DISCUSSION...Parker AVIATION...Wroe MARINE...JVC  657 FXUS63 KIND 200120 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 920 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms possible across southen Central Indiana. Localized flooding is possible. - A Flood Watch is in effect from 3pm today to 2pm Wednesday. - Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Surface analysis this evening shows a cold front across Central Indiana, stretching from near FWA to north of IND to near Vincennes. The front was slowly sagging southward across Central Indiana. Radar trends continue to show scattered convection across southern Indiana, mainly in a decaying state as heating continues to be lost. Aloft, water vapor shows a plume of moisture streaming from eastern TX into the Ohio valley while warm SW flow was in place aloft. GOES19 shows mainly convective debris clouds within that flow streaming across IL and IN. Overnight, the front is expected to continue to sag southward, and flow in the wake of the front will become northeasterly as stronger high pressure begins to build across Indiana from the northern plains. However the steady stream of moisture aloft flowing from the southwest in combination with the lingering front across southern Indiana may result in occasional showers and storms across southern Indiana overnight. Thus will keep a dry forecast in the north and NW where NE winds and dry air is predominate. Pops will remain overnight across the southern parts of the forecast area. Due to the earlier suggested factors, HRRR suggests periodic showers pushing across southern Indiana through the night. Will continue to watch closely overnight for heavy rains that could result in flooding. Ongoing flood watch will remain. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Today and Tonight - Satellite imagery shows cumulus developing as the boundary layer becomes destabilized (IND ACARS shows around 1500 J/Kg MLCAPE). As such, renewed convective activity appears likely again this afternoon. In fact, a few showers have already popped up near Columbus as of 2pm. In terms of hazards, RAP soundings indicate that some mid-level dry air may be present today. ACARS soundings from IND show the dry air and DCAPE values of 1100 J/Kg as of 2pm. This, combined with steep lapse rates and a LLJ around 30-40kt, could allow for downburst and efficient downward momentum transfer. About 25 knots of effective shear may also be enough to allow for loose organization into multicell clusters. Therefore, strong to damaging wind gusts are possible with storms today. The wind threat diminishes after sunset as the column moistens and lapse rates weaken slightly. RAP soundings show the atmosphere becoming more efficient for rainfall production overnight (deep warm cloud layer, saturation to the EL, and moist adiabatic lapse rates). A cold front sagging south across Indiana will interact with an MCV approaching from the southwest, prolonging large-scale lift tonight. Most guidance is on board with showers and thunderstorms continuing on and off through the night. There is a signal for heavy rain within most guidance with pockets of 1 to 3 inches across the southern half of our area. QPF coverage in guidance isn't as widespread as yesterday, but these pockets tend to line up where the heaviest rain fell. Additional flooding may be possible tonight and a Flood Watch has been issued for the southern half of our CWA. Wednesday through Monday - Once the front has pushed south of the area, it will stall out a bit, though high pressure passing through the Great Lakes in its wake will keep it suppressed to the south and allow for both a brief cooldown and a break in precip chances from late Wednesday into Thursday evening. Rain chances return late week into early next week as a large upper level low swings through the northern tier of the country and pulls a warmer and moist airmass back into the area, though chances with the exception of Friday will be low for the time being given significant model inconsistencies and resulting uncertainty. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 708 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Impacts: - Mainly VFR this evening - Scattered showers possible south into Wednesday - MVFR ceilings tonight into Wednesday, IFR visibility possible at BMG and IND. Discussion: A cold front is drifting south across Central Indiana early this evening. Showers and thunderstorms were mainly impacting the BMG area and were exiting the IND TAF area. Overnight the front will continue to push south of the TAf sites, but will remain close to IND and BMG. Given the recent rains and lighter winds expected near the front, fog will be possible overnight at those spots. Higher winds in the wake of the front over HUF and LAF should prevent fog leading to just MVFR cigs. On Wednesday, forecast soundings suggest pesky lower level moisture lingering across the area with some lower level (VFR) clouds through the day. HRRR suggests a stream of moisture still flowing across southern and southeastern Indiana on wednesday, that could lead to additional showers and storms, but confidence is too low at this time for specific timing. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ052>055-060>064- 067>072. && $$ UPDATE...Puma AVIATION...Puma DISCUSSION...Nield/Eckhoff  748 FXUS61 KRLX 200123 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 923 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A line of thunderstorms, currently positioned near I-71 in Ohio, continues to slowly progress east towards our far northwest forecast zones in southeast Ohio. This activity is becoming progressively more outflow dominated, which should lead to a continued gradual weakening trend over the next hour our two. However, the core of the line may just clip our far northwest zone of Perry County over the next hour or so, with a damaging wind potential if this were to happen. Further south, do anticipate the outflow boundary to make it into the western portion of the CWA as it gradually washes out, with brief wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible as it crosses, with much of this area remaining dry. 832 PM Update... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. 527 PM Update... Scattered thunderstorms have developed across southeast Ohio over the last hour or so, with a strong to isolated severe threat over the next hour or two across the area as activity continues to shift northeast through the region. The main threat is strong to damaging wind gusts with any stronger / collapsing cores, although marginally severe hail cannot entirely be ruled out. Have increased PoPs across southeast Ohio and far northwest West Virginia over the next few hours to better reflect radar trends. 147 PM Update... Chances for locally heavy rainfall along and ahead of a cold front Wednesday have increased. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the north and west this afternoon. A decaying complex of storms could bring a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts to southeast Ohio tonight. 2.) A cold front crossing the region Wednesday afternoon and evening brings a threat for damaging winds and localized flash flooding, particularly across the Metro Valley. 3.) Much cooler and drier conditions are expected Thursday. Unsettled weather returns Friday and lasts through the Memorial Day weekend with repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate diurnal cumulus/cumulonimbus development across the region this afternoon amid temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. With relatively weak capping everywhere, at least isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible through loss of heating this evening, most prevalent across the west and north where capping is weakest. Steep low level lapse rates could yield some gusty winds underneath the strongest cores, but the overall severe risk remains fairly low through early this evening.. Attention then turns to tonight as a complex of storms approaches from the west. With the loss of daytime heating and waning instability, this complex is expected to gradually dissipate as it approaches the Ohio River. However, any more robust line segments could still contain marginally severe gusts as they move into southeast Ohio. KEY MESSAGE 2... The main forecast challenge resides with the activity ahead of and along an approaching cold front on Wednesday. Moisture pooling ahead of the front, coupled with strong surface heating, will yield moderate instability heading into Wednesday afternoon with Mixed-Layer CAPE building in excess of 1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates remain rather poor, steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE near 800 J/kg will present a threat for damaging downburst winds. Deep layer shear is expected to remain on the weaker side, generally around 25 to 30KTs, which will favor multicellular clusters. A transient window for supercells may materialize if a brief uptick in shear to 35 KTs overlaps with peak heating. Some mid-level drying could introduce a marginal hail threat in the strongest updrafts, but wet bulb zero heights generally remain above 10-11kft limiting potential for survival of marginally severe hail to the surface. A secondary, and perhaps more impactful, concern for Wednesday will be the potential for training heavy downpours. Boundary flow is forecast to become nearly parallel to the advancing front. This, combined with deep warm cloud depths around 9000 to 10000 ft and precipitable water values pooling to 1.7 inches (above the 90th percentile climatology for this time of year), supports highly efficient rainfall production. Probability matched means HREF/REFS highlight a narrow temporal window between 4 PM and 8 PM for localized heavy rain, clustered primarily across the Metro Valley and adjacent counties. While antecedent soil conditions are quite dry across the area, the intensity of the rainfall could overwhelm the basin response in steep terrain and urbanized environments. A quick 2.5 inches of rain would be sufficient to push small creeks out of their banks and cause flash flooding with lesser amounts causing issues in built up areas. A targeted flash flood watch may become necessary if guidance remains consistent on the placement of the heaviest rainfall axis over the next few model runs. KEY MESSAGE 3... The cold front pushes south of the area on Thursday, allowing most locations to dry out as cooler air filters in. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 70s on Thursday under the influence of cold advection. This respite is brief, as the frontal boundary shifts back to the north as a warm front on Friday, placing the region in an unsettled warm sector heading into the Memorial Day weekend. The boundary is expected to stall just to our north across the Upper Ohio Valley. Friday currently appears to be the wettest day of the extended period. Depending on the exact placement and amounts of Wednesday's heavy rainfall, antecedent soil moisture could become locally compromised, yielding a conditional risk for additional high water concerns on Friday. Showery activity will continue periodically from Saturday through Memorial Day as a persistent Bermuda high over the Atlantic continues to shunt shortwaves through the Ohio Valley. Through this period, there is no strong signal for organized severe weather, as atmospheric instability is expected to remain rather weak with only periodic upticks in deep layer shear. Temperatures will rebound, bringing unseasonably warm, though perhaps not record-breaking, conditions back to the region for the latter half of the holiday weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weakening line of showers/storms will approach southeast Ohio early tonight, potentially bringing gusty winds and very brief MVFR VSBY to a few locations, although none of our TAF sites are anticipated to be affected. VFR persists elsewhere amid dry conditions and SCT high-level clouds. A cold front will cross on Wednesday bringing scattered showers/storms that gradually progress from north to south. Some heavier storms are possible during the afternoon/evening, potentially bringing strong wind gusts and heavy rain. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible in any heavier showers or storms, while MVFR and perhaps IFR CIGs are expected in the afternoon/evening behind the front. Calm or light southwest flow is expected tonight. Southwest flow on Wednesday ahead of the front will veer to NNW following its passage. Occasional breezes of 15 kts or so are expected during the day on Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, medium on Wednesday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions associated with showers and storms on Wednesday may varyfrom the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with showers and/or low stratus, especially in/near the mountains. Brief IFR is also possible at times Friday through the weekend with showers and/or thunderstorms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/GW AVIATION...GW  241 FXUS61 KBUF 200137 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 937 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes made from the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening into overnight, with a few strong storms and an isolated severe storm possible. 2) Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of passing cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening into overnight, with a few strong storms and an isolated severe storm possible. A surface low, crossing Quebec tonight, will drag its cold front across the Great Lakes, arriving to Western New York around 2AM to 3AM. However ahead of the front's arrival, strong to isolated severe storms will spread from west to east this evening. Earlier CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg (especially from the late afternoon), combined with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear supported strong to severe wind gusts upstream of WNY, with some of those stronger winds continuing this evening at times. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight most of the forecast region under a Marginal Risk (Risk level 1 of 5), with the best window for strong storms occurring through 1-2AM tonight. While the risk for strong to a few severe thunderstorms will continue this evening, thunderstorms currently across WNY are starting to weaken. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of passing cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the 50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and a few locations reaching the low 70s. While temperatures will begin to rebound, an area of low pressure will approach the region from the southwest, supporting the return of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the forecast area through the overnight. Some gusty winds and heavy downpours will be possible within showers, especially along and north of I90. Reductions in flight cats will be possible in heavier showers to IFR VSBYs. Outside of showers, mainly VFR CIGs through the evening will lower to MVFR and then IFR through daybreak as a cold front crosses the region. Higher terrain LIFR will be possible late tonight at times. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the passing cold front. This will result in improving flight conditions after daybreak on Wednesday, with all terminals expected to be VFR by mid/late morning. Outlook... Wednesday Night through Friday...VFR. Saturday and Sunday...Potential for low end VFR/MVFR due to a low pressure system introducing rain to the region from the south. && .MARINE... Winds will shift to the northwest and bring another round of Small Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to produce a moderate chop through Wednesday. Additionally, just ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening into overnight, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across the lakes producing gusty winds. Winds will then begin to relax as high pressure returns Wednesday night and Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAJ/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...EAJ  428 FXUS61 KCTP 200143 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 943 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Little threat for wind gusts over 40 KTS early tonight across NW PA with the line of SHRA/TSRA well in advance of a cold front. * Increasing odds for a noticeably cooler and rather wet start to Memorial Day weekend (lowered max temps for Sat by several deg F with extensive low clouds, llvl easterly flow and periods of rain/drizzle/ridge shrouding fog. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered strong thunderstorms are possible across the NW mtns early tonight, then across south central PA and the Lower Susq Valley Wednesday afternoon 2) Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall (over 1 inch) likely Friday and Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered strong thunderstorms are possible across the NW mtns early tonight, then across south central PA and the Lower Susq Valley Wednesday afternoon SPC trimmed back its SLGT Risk area for SVR out of NW PA with its 0045Z update. A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms will be moving across our NW Mtn zones between 02-05Z with some wind gusts of 35-40 KTS possible, more so across the region south of Route 6 where the best combination of SFC based CAPE over 1000 J/KG and DCAPE of ~1000 J/KG will exist. Elsewhere across Central PA and the Susq Valley, expect a partly to mostly cloudy and rather muggy night with sfc Tds in the low to mid 60s in most places. More comfortable conditions will occur across the NW Mtns where rain-cooled air and sfc dewpoints only around 60F will be found. Dual to multi-Layered clouds with just some widely scattered light showers Wednesday morning will be followed by a few periods of showers in the early-mid afternoon, near and to the north of I-80. Convective focus shifts to south central PA Wednesday afternoon with narrow plume of weak to moderate CAPE fcst ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Steep low level lapse rates may support a few instances of strong to severe winds. The magnitude & location of the severe threat will be highly dependent on CFROPA timing and amount of cloud cover. SPC MRGL risk (level 1/5) covers the southeast half of the CWA where max temps are fcst btwn 80-90F. ----------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall likely Friday and Saturday Relief from the early season heat wave arrives in earnest on Thursday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower vs. Wednesday across the southeast half of the forecast area. Strong high pressure slides from the Lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast to close out the week. Model data shows the high channeling southward down the east-side of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming type event heading into Memorial Day weekend. Earlier shifts noted, "We may not be bearish enough on daytime temperatures." Did trim max temps Saturday down by 4-5 deg F given the thick clouds, moderately strong east-serly llvl flow and periods of soaking rain that will dampen at least the start of the holiday weekend. WPC 48hr QPF amounts are quite wet with a widespread 1-2.5 inches fcst from 12Z Friday to 12Z Sunday. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions prevail as of 01Z Wednesday, with these conditions likely (80-90% confidence) to continue at all airfields outside of BFD through ~12Z Wednesday. In this timeframe, approaching a line of SHRA with embedded TSRA will approach NW PA closer to the ~03/04Z timeframe. This will likely bring low-end VFR to high-end MVFR ceilings which will persist throughout the entire overnight period and throughout much of the evening hours on Wednesday (~22/23Z Wednesday). Closer to the 12Z timeframe, increasing signals for IFR at BFD based on a consensus of HREF ensemble members and multiple cycles of GLAMP model guidance, so have decided to include these in the TAFs with moderate (~40-50%) confidence on timing. A brief period of lower ceilings trending towards LIFR will be possible; however, confidence remains too low for inclusion in the 00Z TAFs. Elsewhere, the aforementioned line of SHRA/TSRA is expected to diminish in intensity/coverage overnight, leading many airfields unlikely to receive any SHRA in the 00Z-12Z Wednesday timeframe. Recent HREF runs have been fairly consistent with the progression of a low-level cloud deck across all of central Pennsylvania, so have included these mentions and slightly adjusted timing based on recent HREF/NBM/GLAMP model guidance in order to outline initial onset of MVFR restrictions. There is high (~70-80%) confidence on SHRA/TSRA reforming during the late morning to early afternoon hours (mainly after 16Z) with increasing coverage into the evening hours. Current SHRA mentions have been included at all terminals across central Pennsylvania based on recent forecast/HREF/GLAMP model guidance with most uncertainty with respect to timing. In terms of TSRA coverage, the highest potential at this time is outlined across SE PA (MDT/LNS) where enough instability will be present in order for some mentions in the TAF. At this time, have trended towards PROB30s; however, if the cold frontal passage trends quicker than forecast, could see mentions removed at MDT/LNS in future TAF packages. Outlook... Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat-Sun...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CLIMATE... The following climate sites across central Pennsylvania set new daily high temperature records for May 18th: * A record high temperature of 92 degrees was set in Altoona, breaking the previous record of 91 degrees initially set back in 1962. This record was tied two times previously, back in 1996 and 2017. * A record high temperature of 86 degrees was set in Bradford, breaking the previous record of 85 degrees set back in 1962. --------------------------------------------- As of the 5PM Daily Climate Reports on May 19th, two stations across central Pennsylvania have *potentially* broken their warmest low temperature records for May 19th: * Harrisburg has an observed low temperature of 68 degrees, which would break the previous record of 67 degrees set in 2017. * Bradford has an observed low temperature of 61 degrees, which would break the previous record of 60 degrees set in 1998. ** Please note the two above *potential* records are not finalized until the midnight climate reports are sent out, which should occur sometime around ~2AM 5/20. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl/Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl/Bauco DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl/Bauco AVIATION...Beaty CLIMATE...Beaty  455 FXUS63 KFSD 200144 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 844 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and freeze conditions are expected tonight into early Wednesday morning across the area - take precautions to protect sensitive vegetation. Frost/Freeze headlines go into effect late tonight. - Scattered showers will return Wednesday afternoon mainly west of the James River Valley with light accumulations expected. - Cooler conditions continue this week. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Severe weather not expected. However, some ensembles guidance suggests up to a 10 to 30 percent chance for a half an inch of rain during this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The forecast remains on track with the main the focus being on the frost/freeze potential tonight. With a surface high continuing to progress through the northern plains, we're already starting to see lighter winds take hold across the area this evening. This combined with rapidly cooling temperatures and a smaller dew point depression overnight will likely lead to frost/freeze conditions especially in our northwestern zones. With this in mind, we're still on track for scattered areas of frost with patchy areas of widespread freeze mainly along the Highway-14 corridor so make sure to cover/bring in any sensitive vegetation! Otherwise, a chilly start is ahead as most areas will wake up to temperatures in the low to mid 30s to start Wednesday. However, these conditions won't stay for long as southerly/southeasterly winds help temperatures improve to the 60s for the day. Lastly, can't completely rule out a few scattered showers mainly west of the James River Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Nonetheless, any accumulations would be light at best. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cool high pressure settles into the area tonight and will bring a very good chance for temperatures tall to or below 35 for most of the area with temperatures at or below freezing possible north of I- 90. Thus a freeze warning is in place for highway 14 and nearby locations in SD with a frost advisory for the remainder of the area. Isolated pockets of fog will be possible early Wednesday morning but at this time it does not appear as though it will become more widespread. A weak wave will move through the area on Wednesday which could bring a few sprinkles but overall should mainly be an increase in mid level clouds. Otherwise slightly more mild temperatures are expected as southerly flow develops and brings highs back into the 60s for most locations. Another weak wave moves across NE on Thursday and could bring some light showers to the Missouri River corridor into northwest IA. Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture with the system is very limited. A bit stronger and more negatively tilted system will swing through on Friday bringing the next best chance for rainfall. Instability very minor with CAPE values generally 500 J/kg or less. The model soundings do indicate the potential for some efficient rainfall however so maybe some half inch or so amounts will be possible. The latest ensemble output indicating about a 10 to 30 percent chance for more than a half an inch and the latest Nam is indicating a couple of areas with more than a half an inch. Long story short, only minor impacts expected with no severe weather. As this system moves northeast and out of the area a few lingering showers will be possible on Saturday, but warmer temperatures will begin to work into the region. Sunday through the middle of next week will see troughiness to the west and ridging to the east, leaving the area in warmer southerly flow. While there is very little agreement, there should be a couple of weaker waves that could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but for now confidence is too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise highs should be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Besides some diurnally driven cumulus this afternoon, not expecting any aviation concerns. Otherwise, decreasing northwesterly winds will become more light and variable overnight with an approaching surface high. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ050- 054>071. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ038>040- 052-053. MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ071-072- 080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...05 DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...05  693 FXUS62 KTAE 200148 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 948 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 947 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend. Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95 degree range. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. Coverage will then increase over this weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 947 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The forecast is on track this evening, updates do not appear necessary. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery currently shows two different maxima of moisture. The first maximum, characterized by PW values of 1.5 to 1.6 inches, is located along the U.S. 19 corridor from Perry FL down to the Suwannee. The second maximum, with PWs of 1.4-1.5 inches, is located west of the U.S. 231 corridor in FL and AL. These are the areas that will be favored for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon and this evening. On Wednesday, drier mid-level air which water vapor imagery highlights east of the First Coast will migrate westward, nearly shutting down convection along the Nature Coast seabreeze. In contrast, the Emerald Coast seabreeze over the Panhandle will have even more moisture to play with. PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will support scattered PM thunderstorms, with southeast steering flow then taking storms northwestward into the Alabama Wiregrass. Given pockets of mid-level dry air, a favorable downdraft environment will support briefly strong convective gusts of 40-50 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Through Friday, the 500 mb pattern will feature a fairly sharp ridge axis extending from the SW Gulf to the NE Gulf, acting as a suppressor to PM seabreeze thunderstorm development. PM storms will be isolated at most. This weekend, the upper ridge axis will move east across the FL Peninsula and then east of FL early next week. In response, weak southerly to southwesterly mid- level flow will develop across our region, acting as less of a suppressor to convection. 1000-700 mb layer southeast flow will become better defined this weekend, bringing a more reliable feed of deeper moisture from the vicinity of the Greater Antilles. By next Monday and Tuesday, GEFS ensemble members show the most likely range of PWs in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range areawide. PoPs will respond with an initial jump on Saturday, then a slower climb in rain chances from Sunday through next Tuesday. This is starting to look more classically like the start of summer rainy season. Otherwise, the proximity of upper ridging through this weekend will support afternoon temperature running 1-4 degrees above normal. Inland highs will commonly reach the 90-95 degree range, with heat index values in the 95-100 range. We have already seen minor heat-related impacts over the last couple of weeks. Now we will start to see Moderate heat-related impacts, as highlighted in NWS Heat Risk. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR expected to prevail. A low probability of MVFR/IFR at ECP, DHN, and VLD around sunrise. A PROB30 for TSRA on Wednesday at ECP and DHN. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A high pressure center will persist near Bermuda through this weekend, with a broad ridge extending west to the Georgia coast. Gentle easterly breezes over the northeast Gulf will become southeasterly on Thursday then continue through this weekend, interrupted each afternoon by the nearshore seabreeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The main fire weather concern over the next 7 days will be gusty and erratic winds near afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Through Friday, storms will be isolated, favoring the Nature Coast seabreeze and the Emerald Coast seabreeze. Thunderstorm coverage will increase this weekend as the air mass moistens a little more, becoming scattered and persisting through early next week. Otherwise, a seasonably hot air mass will persist, with afternoon temperatures will running 1-4 degrees above normal. Areas of fog are expected on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, mainly west of U.S. 231 through the Panhandle and Lower Alabama. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Heavy downpours beneath the core of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may lead to localized and short-lived nuisance flooding in urban or poor drainage areas, mainly from Saturday onward as thunderstorm coverage increases and the air mass moistens further. Larger scale flooding and river flooding are not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 91 71 93 / 10 20 0 10 Panama City 72 87 71 87 / 0 40 0 0 Dothan 70 90 69 90 / 10 40 20 20 Albany 70 91 69 92 / 0 10 10 10 Valdosta 66 91 69 93 / 10 10 0 10 Cross City 67 93 70 94 / 20 10 0 20 Apalachicola 75 83 72 85 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haner LONG TERM....Haner AVIATION...LF MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Haner