088 FXUS62 KJAX 200403 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1203 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Friday - Patchy to Areas of Fog Tonight, Locally Dense inland Southeast GA - Daily chances for mainly afternoon thunderstorms will increase this week, with area-wide chances by the holiday weekend && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Solid Moderate Rip Current Risk at NE FL/SE GA beaches - Locally dense fog possible inland late night/early morning hours High pressure will be centered to the northeast of the region through Tonight. This will continue a southeast steering flow across the region. Moisture remains limited in the mid/upper levels and is expected to only trigger widely scattered showers and storms during the afternoon/evening hours over inland areas, with the main focus along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL. Isolated strong storm possible with gusty winds, but severe weather is not expected. Max temps will remain above normal with highs in the lower 90s inland, upper 80s I-95 corridor and middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Low temps falling into the 60s over inland areas will support patchy to areas of fog formation, with locally dense fog possible around sunrise both mornings, mainly along the I-10 corridor northward across most of inland SE GA. The onshore flow will keep the Atlantic Coastal milder with lows in the lower/middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily isolated thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor. Pattern of diurnal showers and storms will continue with convection becoming less inhibited by Friday as the influence of high pressure ridging over the forecast area diminishes and prevailing flow shifts to become more southerly, bringing in more moist conditions with PWAT values potentially rising to levels between 1.8 and 2 inches. Temperatures will be well above average through the end of the week with daily max temps reaching up into the lower to mid 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for areas near the shoreline. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... - Hot temperatures continue through the weekend - Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week. Diurnal convection will become more widespread by Saturday and Sunday as prevailing flow over the forecast area continues to be from out of the southeast and south with afternoon thunderstorm developments having a a potential for heavy rainfall with stronger slower moving storms leading to localized flooding over affected areas. Temperatures are expected to remain above the seasonal average through the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Stratus will move off the Atlantic late Tonight, which may briefly cause restrictions. The potential for these restrictions in stratus is low, so will not include any TEMPO groups. Further inland, fog is expected to cause restrictions at VQQ and GNV. Prevailing VFR conditions is forecast for Wednesday as rainfall chances remain too low for inclusion at the TAF sites for now. East Coast sea breeze will increase E-SE winds to 10-12G15-18 knots at TAF sites through the afternoon hours, which will slowly diminish after sunset Wednesday evening. && .MARINE... High pressure will be centered to the east northeast this week and through the weekend. Mainly southeast flow will continue through the period with a daily sea breeze near the Atlantic Coast. Rip Currents: Solid Moderate Risk through the end of the week with surf/breakers in the 2-3 ft range. Potential High Risk for the holiday weekend with an uptick in surf/breakers back into the 3-4 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersions This Week The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon this week. Persistent onshore flow will allow moisture to continue filtering into the area, leading to MinRH values remaining above critical levels. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic, convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and coverage of showers and storms is expected. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the week. each day Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible this morning and Wednesday mornings for inland locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 66 91 68 / 10 10 20 10 SSI 83 72 86 77 / 0 10 0 0 JAX 89 68 92 73 / 10 0 20 10 SGJ 87 70 90 75 / 10 0 10 10 GNV 93 68 94 72 / 20 20 20 20 OCF 94 68 92 73 / 30 30 30 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  042 FXUS63 KUNR 200402 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1002 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Cool and unsettled through Friday, warming up after -Good chance of showers Thur into Fri as an upper trough moves through the region && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Departing SFC high will support another cool night as clear skies work with light winds and dry air in place. Frost is not expected to be very widespread tonight outside of northeast WY, being mainly confined to low lying areas and valleys. Upper trough will move east across the Rockies Wed, with the lee-side trough pushing into the FA. Increasing LL moisture per SE flow and an impulse to the south will be enough to support a few isolated showers and TS across mainly western SD in the afternoon. Broad brushed 20 pops across most of that area, with slightly higher numbers over the northern Black Hills. Main upper trough will move into the region Thur with the stalled sfc trough running N-S across the FA, INVOF of the SD/WY line. Conditional instability combined with height falls and sufficient moisture will allow for diurnal convection, initiating along the trough and the Black Hills. Convection will likely wane Thur night with additional showers Friday as the upper trough moves over the region and diurnal heating occurs. Adjusted pops accordingly. Otherwise, warmer and drier weather is on track this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Current upper air models show the upper trough axis east of the forecast area this afternoon, with west northwest flow over the region. 19Z surface analysis depicts high pressure over Wyoming, weak surface trough over central MT. Satellite shows widespread CU across the forecast area, with little vertical extent. Temperatures currently sit in the 40s to mid 50s with light winds predominantly out of the northwest. Brief shortwave ridge settles in Wednesday into Thursday, prompting a slow warming trend with mostly dry conditions. Weak surface trough in MT passes through Wednesday. This forcing may spark some isolated to showers/storms but no significant QPF is expected through the first half of Thursday. As ridge shifts eastward, troughing once again slides across the Rockies and into the northern and central plains. Synoptic forcing will prompt widespread precipitation the latter half of Thursday into Friday. Current NBM probabilities for precip >= 0.25" has a wide swath of 60 to 80 percent over most of western SD, excluding far northwestern SD. Based off the current track of this system, highest QPF amounts are expected in the Black Hills and southwestern SD Precipitation is expected to taper off from west to east later Friday, and upper ridge slowly builds over the weekend. Expect highs to jump into the 70s and 80s by Saturday, and stick around through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued At 502 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through most the forecast period. The exception will be south central SD Wed. MVFR cigs will move into the area there as an impulse skirts the region. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Wednesday for SDZ002- 012>014-027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-073-075>078. WY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ055-056- 058>060. && $$ UPDATE...JC DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...JC  255 FXUS64 KBMX 200407 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1107 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week, with the greatest chance for heavy rainfall in northwest areas. - Muggy conditions and high temperatures will create a minor to moderate daily heat risk across Central Alabama. && .DISCUSSION... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing off to our west ahead of an approaching cold front. CAMs continue to hint at this activity dissipating as it nears the MS/AL stateline. If any of this activity does make it into the area, it will be across our northwest areas. The aforementioned front will stall across the state tomorrow and linger through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft will guide several H5 impulses through the region. This will lead to elevated chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. Each day will feature diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. The majority of this activity will be pulse-like storms as shear profiles are not too impressive. Greatest chances each day will be across our northern areas where low level moisture convergence will be maximized along the stalled boundary. The boundary retreats back to the north over the weekend, leaving a plume of moist air in place across the region. Bouts of H5 energy will continue to stream across the southeast, leading to increased chances for showers and storms daily. Select forecast soundings depict a nearly saturated atmospheric column and a deep warm cloud depth. This would help promote periods of heavy rainfall at times. Rainfall amounts have trended up recently with 2-3" forecast across our northwest areas. Areas back to our southeast will see around 1" or less. With that said, pockets of higher amounts are likely, especially if these storms turn into efficient rainfall producers. Latest LREF guidance suggests a low (20-30%) chance for amounts over 3". Increased cloud cover will knock a few degrees off our highs for the rest of the week with temperatures generally settling into the mid 80s daily. Those across our southeastern areas will remain near 90. Lows look to fall into the mid 60s for most. Muggy and warm conditions will lead to a minor to moderate heat risk daily across Central Alabama. This would primarily affect those who are extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions prevail throughout this TAF cycle. Light and variable winds tonight will increase out of the south through the day tomorrow, generally from 6-10 knots. Latest CAMs continue to hint at isolated convection developing during the afternoon hours Wednesday. Therefore, a PROB30 for -TSRA has been introduced from roughly 18Z - 00Z. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... A stalled cold front and continued bouts of upper level energy will keep rain chances elevated through the end of the week. MinRH values will generally remain over 50% daily. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 87 64 84 / 0 60 50 70 Anniston 66 86 64 84 / 0 60 50 50 Birmingham 70 87 67 85 / 10 20 50 60 Tuscaloosa 70 87 68 86 / 10 20 50 60 Calera 68 89 66 86 / 0 20 40 50 Auburn 68 89 68 87 / 0 50 30 30 Montgomery 70 89 68 88 / 10 40 40 30 Troy 69 89 68 88 / 10 50 40 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo  533 FXUS63 KUNR 200410 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1010 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Cool and unsettled through Friday, warming up after -Good chance of showers Thur into Fri as an upper trough moves through the region && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Departing SFC high will support another cool night as clear skies work with light winds and dry air in place. Frost is not expected to be very widespread tonight outside of northeast WY, being mainly confined to low lying areas and valleys. Upper trough will move east across the Rockies Wed, with the lee-side trough pushing into the FA. Increasing LL moisture per SE flow and an impulse to the south will be enough to support a few isolated showers and TS across mainly western SD in the afternoon. Broad brushed 20 pops across most of that area, with slightly higher numbers over the northern Black Hills. Main upper trough will move into the region Thur with the stalled sfc trough running N-S across the FA, INVOF of the SD/WY line. Conditional instability combined with height falls and sufficient moisture will allow for diurnal convection, initiating along the trough and the Black Hills. Convection will likely wane Thur night with additional showers Friday as the upper trough moves over the region and diurnal heating occurs. Adjusted pops accordingly. Otherwise, warmer and drier weather is on track this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Current upper air models show the upper trough axis east of the forecast area this afternoon, with west northwest flow over the region. 19Z surface analysis depicts high pressure over Wyoming, weak surface trough over central MT. Satellite shows widespread CU across the forecast area, with little vertical extent. Temperatures currently sit in the 40s to mid 50s with light winds predominantly out of the northwest. Brief shortwave ridge settles in Wednesday into Thursday, prompting a slow warming trend with mostly dry conditions. Weak surface trough in MT passes through Wednesday. This forcing may spark some isolated to showers/storms but no significant QPF is expected through the first half of Thursday. As ridge shifts eastward, troughing once again slides across the Rockies and into the northern and central plains. Synoptic forcing will prompt widespread precipitation the latter half of Thursday into Friday. Current NBM probabilities for precip >= 0.25" has a wide swath of 60 to 80 percent over most of western SD, excluding far northwestern SD. Based off the current track of this system, highest QPF amounts are expected in the Black Hills and southwestern SD Precipitation is expected to taper off from west to east later Friday, and upper ridge slowly builds over the weekend. Expect highs to jump into the 70s and 80s by Saturday, and stick around through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1009 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through most the forecast period. The exception will be south central SD Wed. MVFR cigs will move into the area there as an impulse skirts the region Wed morning. Otherwise, isolated shra/ts are possible Wed afternoon across western SD. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Wednesday for SDZ002- 012>014-027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-073-075>078. WY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ055-056- 058>060. && $$ UPDATE...JC DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...JC  319 FXUS65 KGJT 200409 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1009 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures linger into Wednesday morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect for the lower basins of northwest Colorado. - After Wednesday, temperatures begin to trend above normal and will continue that way through the weekend. - Precipitation is periodically possible throughout the week, mostly confined to the higher terrain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 952 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Overnight clearing skies will contribute to sub-freezing temperatures into the early morning Wednesday. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for northwestern Colorado and are set to expire at 9 AM. We are currently in the midst of a pattern shift, where ridging and high pressure will begin to build this weekend. The weather will be generally dry and quiet as this transition occurs, with the exception of some of the higher terrain locations. Wednesday temperatures will still remain below normal, but that will be the last day with below normal temperatures for the current week. Some scattered afternoon rain and snow showers are possible (30-50%) in the central and southern mountains Wednesday afternoon. Warming temperatures associated with the building ridge will keep any snow accumulations very minimal and confined to the highest elevations for that time period. On Thursday, another shortwave trough will begin to propagate through the area, bringing lift and weak moisture to the northern half of our CWA. Some model guidance suggests this trough may take a more southerly track which would favor precipitation chances along I-70. As more high resolution model guidance comes out, more certainty will be revealed for the most favorable location for moisture. But at this point, the current forecast keeps rain and high elevation snow chances primarily for the northern areas. Past Thursday, some pockets of vorticity and available moisture may support terrain based afternoon convection each day as we move into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty winds are coming to an end at most terminals as we move into the evening hours. Winds will be generally light and terrain driven overnight and into the morning hours, before gusty (20-25 kts) winds pick up again Wednesday afternoon. Some showers are expected to develop at KASE, KGUC, and KTEX Wednesday morning into the afternoon. There is a possibility for cigs to fall below ILS breakpoints where shower activity is present. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible during this time period at those sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  937 FXUS65 KSLC 200420 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1020 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak trough will scrape through the northeastern CWA on Thursday, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, alongside slightly cooler temperatures. - Temperatures warm back to 5 to 15 degrees above normal across the region by Monday alongside a relatively benign weather pattern. - An area of low pressure will progress into the region during the first half of next week, bringing potential for elevated fire weather conditions across a portion of Utah. && .DISCUSSION...Remnants of a cooler airmass left in the wake of the most recent storm system will linger across a portion of the region on Wednesday, bringing below average high temperatures in the northern area and near average temperatures in the southern area. Low amounts of instability near the southern trough axis in southwest Wyoming/ northeast Utah will keep a chance for light rain/ snow showers in the forecast for tomorrow, especially in the high Uinta Mountains. Given stabilizing conditions overhead, the chances for an isolated thunderstorm or two in this same area is low, but not zero (5-15%). As one system leaves our area, another follows quickly in its wake. Models maintain good agreement on a trough diving out of western Canada on Wednesday evening and arriving in the eastern Great Basin region by Thursday morning. The coldest temperatures associated with this system are likely to remain east of the forecast area, making the most noteworthy change in conditions the increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage across the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming. Current guidance supports a weak baroclinic zone moving into northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming during the early morning hours on Thursday, helping to kick off light precipitation as it pairs with the increasing low level moisture. This leading edge of precipitation should work through much of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming by the early afternoon. Behind this boundary, moisture and instability will increase and allow for more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop with greater intensity. At this time the greatest threat from these anticipated thunderstorms looks to be small hail (0.5 inches or less) and wind gusts up to 40-50 mph. Conditions across the region will stabilize marginally by Friday as the main trough moves eastward out of the region. That said, lingering lower level moisture and elevated instability will keep low chances (10-15% chance or less) for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast, particularly across the high Uinta Mountains and near highest terrain features in southern Utah. Rapid warming is expected across the region through the weekend as high pressure reestablishes its presence in the region. High temperatures will rise back to 5 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year, with the lower end anomaly expected across the southern area and the higher end expected across the northern area. Mostly dry conditions are expected alongside this warmth before our next weather system starts taking aim on the region from Tuesday forward. There is still a bit of uncertainty revolving around this system, however, the big picture trends to look out for (especially on Tuesday) will be an increase in southerly winds alongside above normal temperatures and dry surface conditions. All three of these variables will pair to generate potentially elevated fire weather conditions by Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Southeasterly drainage winds will transition to northwesterly during the 15-17Z timeframe Wednesday. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to persist across all TAF sites. Diurnally driven winds will be the norm across the area through Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will steadily warm through the week, reaching values around 10F above seasonal normals by late in the weekend. Conditions will be on the dry side with light winds for much of the week, with the exception of Thursday. A storm system will temporarily curb the warming trend and bring a low chance of wetting rains to northeast Utah. The system will also bring some breezy winds, which could bring some locally critical fire weather conditions to some southern Utah valleys Thursday afternoon. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Webber AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  981 FXUS63 KMKX 200422 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1122 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry, but cooler today (Wednesday) through Thursday with highs in the 50s to lower 60s due to onshore flow off of Lake Michigan. - Expect a gradual warming trend through the Memorial Day weekend. - Rain chances return Friday afternoon and night (40-70%), with lower chances through the holiday weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1120 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Today through Thursday: Clouds linger overnight into early Wednesday morning as the backside of the upper-level shortwave trough swings across the the Upper Midwest. This cloud cover will help insulate temps from falling as low as they could, but still expecting lows in the 40s overnight. If there is any breaks in the clouds before sunrise, could not rule out a few inland location dipping into the upper 30s. Otherwise the midweek pattern will be dominated by high pressure building into the Upper Great Lakes region through the day Wednesday. While expecting dry weather to prevail, expecting northeast to easterly flow off of Lake Michigan through Thursday. Thus, temps will remain much cooler along the lake and inland to along the Kettle Moraine. Mainly looking at highs in the 50s to around 60F, with coolest temps closer to the lake. Meanwhile west of the Kettle Moraine will be less influenced from the onshore flow, but still looking at daytime temps in the lower 60s. Thursday is actually looking slightly cooler further inland giving the easterly as compared to the northeasterly winds today (Wednesday). However models continue to pick up on a lake breeze developing later in the day due to the stronger temp gradient paired with enhancement of the building high pressure to the north. Thus this could push the cooler temps inland faster in the afternoon than the current forecast, but expect temps to fall pretty quick behind this lake breeze/front later in the afternoon/evening dipping into the lower 50s and upper 40s with overnight lows for Wednesday night in the lower 40s. Thursday night lows will be fairly similar in the 40s with prevailing east winds as well. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 1120 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Friday through Tuesday: An upper level trough will descend down from western Canada into the northern plain then pivot northeast toward James Bay for the weekend. As this upper level low pivots through Minnesota Friday, a short wave will begin to pull up from the desert southwest late Saturday into Sunday. Weak WAA will be in place through the weekend so combined with the lift there will be chances for rain Friday through Sunday. Friday by far looks like the best time for rain with POPs around 60-80% Friday night. POPs are trending later in the day which seems to be a combination of dry air in the low level that will delay onset and guidance overall trending a bit later in the day. If this trend continues I could see the onset of rain and maybe a few storms trending a bit later yet. For Saturday and Sunday the lift from the shortwave will be a bit weaker. Given this and the differences in timing and location across models, POPs are hovering around 15-25%. WAA will cause temperatures to climb both days with highs in the 60s Saturday and mid 60s to upper 70s Sunday. So the instability should be there and moisture, it will just depend on where and when this larger scale lift moves through. Regardless this should be less organized and more scattered than Friday. Definitely NOT a wash out. A quick area of weak high pressure looks to try to traverse the Great Lakes Region for early next week. Guidance currently has some low chance POPs for Monday and Tuesday, but unsure if this will actually materialize. While the high pressure system is on the weaker side the stationary front across the Ohio River Valley should be far enough away to prevent any showers and 500mb clusters look to keep the ridging in place aloft. I'm sure there are a few ensemble members trying to bring more moisture and mid level support further north to justify the low POP (10-20%). Either way, the better organization is to the south, which means at worst it would be isolated to scattered showers even if those few ensemble members hold out. Temperatures look to continue to warm into mid week with a return to the 80s. Patterson && .AVIATION... Issued 1120 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Still some pockets of lingering MVFR ceilings around 3kft, but otherwise seeing with VFR ceilings between 3.2-4kft or swaths of clearing continue tonight. Expect the VFR ceilings to prevail into Wednesday morning as high pressure begins to build into the area. despite the high pressure, still expecting to see some mid-level diurnal driven cumulus develop through the afternoon, but with more onshore flow off of Lake Michigan could even see some lower MVFR sneak in for some of the eastern lakeshore terminals through the day. As for winds, west-northwest winds overnight will turn more northeasterly through the morning and gradually pick up through the afternoon. Then as the high settles over the Great Lakes, expect a lake breeze to develop and surge inland bringing breezy easterly winds behind it through the later afternoon and evening. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 1120 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Lingering gusty winds this evening, but will gradually diminish overnight as high pressure builds into the Upper Great Lakes region Wednesday and Thursday. Still looking at gusty northeast winds through midweek, especially over the southern half of the lake and building waves along the western lakeshore. High pressure continues to build to as it lifts northeastward across Ontario and Quebec Friday through the weekend with easterly winds persisting across Lake Michigan. Expecting winds to increase during this timeframe as well with a broad low pressure trough setting up over the Plains. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  267 FXUS64 KTSA 200431 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Abnormally cool weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week. - Rain and thunder chances will continue daily through the forecast period, with periods of heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Beneficial rain has fallen across eastern OK and northwest AR over the last 24 hours or so. Zones receiving the most rainfall have been: far northeast OK into far northwest AR and southeast OK, especially far southeast OK, where amounts have averaged between two to three inches. Most impressive amounts fell in parts of northeast Ottawa County, near the tri-state marker, where radar estimates around four inches or greater fell. A few elevated showers and sprinkles have developed along the I-44 corridor, near an elevated frontal boundary. Last few runs of the HRRR have been on the aggressive side of intensifying these showers/storms and expanding them into far eastern OK and northwest AR after midnight. Brief pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible if this scenario occurs as they progress eastward through the overnight period tonight. Additional rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch will be possible, especially across far northwest AR. Precipitation chances will begin to trend lower by or just after daybreak Wednesday and is forecast to remain mostly dry through the remainder of the day. A few isolated/spotty showers and storms are possible in the afternoon, mostly affecting parts of southeast OK and northwest AR, but no hazardous impacts are expected. Cloud cover will remain fairly thick through Wednesday morning, but some breaks and thinning of clouds may occur during the afternoon, especially portions of southeast OK. Cloud cover will keep temperatures generally below average through the daytime, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-upper 60s to lower 70s north of I-40 and mid-upper 70s to near 80 degrees south of I-40. If enough sunlight is able to break through the clouds, temps may warm up closer to average. Next best chance of widespread rain, with isolated thunderstorms, will arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another mid-level shortwave trough approaches the area from the southwest. Very limited instability and weak flow aloft will suppress any chance of severe storms, but moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs increase between 1.5-1.75 inches across the area by sunrise Thursday morning. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered to numerous showers, with embedded scattered thunderstorms, will likely be ongoing Thursday morning as a mid- level shortwave trough, downstream from its parent trough axis, pivots northeastward across the forecast area. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement an uptick in precipitation intensity will occur late in the morning through the afternoon. Despite an increase in moisture and instability by Thursday afternoon, wind shear is still expected to be weak and should keep any severe potential very low to none. Will continue to monitor trends in data. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main concern as it may lead to nuisance flooding and potentially flash flooding through the daytime Thursday and into Thursday night. Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by Friday, though models and ensembles continue to support the idea of multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain each day through the upcoming weekend. Signals in model data suggest the brunt of the heaviest rainfall will occur mainly late evening through the overnight period each night Friday night through Sunday night. Once again, severe potential is expected to be very limited to none as flow aloft remains too weak to support organized severe storms through the upcoming weekend. However, efficient elevated instability and abnormally high PWATs through the period will maintain the risk of heavy rainfall and potential flooding, including river flooding, each day/night. Mejia && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wide ranging mix of flight conditions ongoing across the local forecast area with the expected trend being MVFR to periodic IFR conditions overnight due to low ceilings and fog. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening primarily across E OK terminals with chances continuing and expanding through NW AR overnight. Overall expect low coverage of any heavier rains. Low ceilings likely continue through Wed morning with a slow improvement possible during the afternoon most likely from SE OK into west central AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 56 68 60 72 / 50 20 40 90 FSM 65 80 65 77 / 50 20 30 60 MLC 60 76 64 75 / 50 20 30 90 BVO 51 66 54 70 / 50 10 50 80 FYV 59 73 61 75 / 60 30 20 70 BYV 59 69 59 73 / 60 20 20 50 MKO 58 72 62 73 / 50 20 30 90 MIO 55 65 58 72 / 50 10 40 80 F10 57 71 61 73 / 40 20 40 90 HHW 64 80 65 74 / 60 30 40 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...07  288 FXUS62 KTBW 200432 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1232 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours. - Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1214 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Not much change to the overall forecast reasoning. Little change to the overall pattern through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will produce east to southeast boundary layer flow across the peninsula for the next several days. The west coast sea breeze boundary will develop each afternoon with the southeast flow holding the boundary over the coastal counties. The easterly flow isn't quite as strong as yesterday, which will allow the boundary to push about 20 to 30 miles further inland, which will also shift highest pops today to the interior coastal counties. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon along the boundary with the greatest areal coverage from the Tampa Bay area and south. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH and small hail. An U/L low east of the Bahamas will meander off the east coast of Florida through the end of the week. This will in effect create lower heights over west central and southwest Florida which will aid in increasing convective instability. The U/L low will exit over the weekend, and a strong U/L ridge will build over the forecast area increasing large scale subsidence over the area. Scattered to numerous afternoon showers/storms are still expected to develop along the west coast sea breeze boundary over the weekend as the increased subsidence will likely be offset by slightly warmer temps/increased low level instability. Offshore flow will aid in continuing above normal daily temperatures across west central and southwest Florida with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. The increased subsidence over the weekend will allow temperatures to climb even a few degrees higher. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the night under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop during the mid/late afternoon hours mainly over the coastal counties with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs which may impact all terminals for a few hours. Wind gusts to 50 MPH and small hail will also be possible with a few stronger storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1214 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each day which will push locally offshore during the afternoon/evening hours causing locally strong winds and rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1214 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold across the forecast area for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 75 91 77 / 30 30 20 20 FMY 92 73 93 75 / 60 40 50 20 GIF 92 72 92 74 / 40 30 30 20 SRQ 91 73 91 75 / 30 30 20 10 BKV 93 69 93 71 / 30 20 20 20 SPG 93 75 92 78 / 30 30 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby  363 FXUS64 KEPZ 200435 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1035 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1033 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - Dry, southwest winds continue each afternoon through the work week. Near normal temperatures for mid May. - Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, focused mostly over the high terrain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1033 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Longwave troughing over the Intermountain west can be seen via mid- level water vapor satellite imagery. With most of the energy associated with this trough well off to the north and east, very little in terms of sensible weather impacts will be felt locally on Wednesday. The only thing worth mentioning is that winds on Wednesday will remain in the low-end breezy category with winds out of the southwest at 10-20 mph sustained with isolated gusts to 25-30 mph during the afternoon. Mentioned in previous forecast packages, the weak moisture boundary at the surface will ebb and flow over eastern portions of the forecast area on Wednesday, generally east of the HWY54 corridor. Models guidance shows DP temps in the 40-50 degrees range across far eastern El Paso County, Hudspeth County, and Sacramento Mtn east slopes. But by the afternoon, the dry westerlies will kick into gear and push said low-level moisture back to the east. There are mentionable PoPs (15%) in the grids across far eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties where an Isolated shower/storm will be possible. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain right around the seasonal average. On Thursday, the dry westerlies win out again as the moisture boundary tries to make another westward push during the morning hours. Expected low-end breezy winds and near seasonal afternoon temperatures. For Friday, an extension, or weak piece of energy will cutoff from the main flow aloft over southern AZ and northern Sonora. As it does so, short wave ridging will build in quickly over the forecast area. Again, expected fair weather conditions with light winds and afternoon temperatures near seasonal for the later part of May. ...MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND... The overall flow aloft this weekend will become weak as the aforementioned cutoff low quickly translates east and upper level ridging develops in it's wake. This will ultimately result in fair weather conditions on Saturday and Sunday with light winds and near seasonal temperatures. For Monday, Memorial Day, the slightest bit of moisture will work it's way into the area with meager but sufficient moisture profiles. As of now, NBM guidance and it's respected global models paint slight chances of rain across portions of the area Monday afternoon and evening. Being 5-6 days out, confidence remains LOW, but something to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SCT-BKN at 25 kft. Winds light at 3-8 knots and VRB through the morning hours. By 18Z, winds will become south/southwest at 10-15 knots sustained with gusts to 20-25 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Near Critical fire weather conditions for Southwest New Mexico again on Wednesday with continued southwest winds 10 to 20 mph and Min RH 8 to 12%. Winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag criteria. Skies will be partly cloudy area wide with passing high clouds. Typical mid May temperatures. Similar weather on Thursday, though we may see some afternoon low level cumulus growth over the high terrain. Minimal changes to temperatures later in the week, along with light southwest flow remaining in place across southern New Mexico.Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, primarily over Lincoln National Forest. This could lead to erratic afternoon wind gusts Saturday/Sunday there. Current fuel status shows ERCs rising past the 90th percentile this week, due in part to sustained dry, breezy weather. Forest conditions are increasingly susceptible to fire starts. There is some concern in new lightning starts over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 63 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 86 56 83 / 0 10 10 10 Las Cruces 54 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 65 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 58 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 88 56 88 / 0 20 10 0 Fort Hancock 61 93 62 91 / 0 10 10 10 Loma Linda 58 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 60 92 61 89 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 57 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 77 48 76 / 0 10 10 10 Mescalero 47 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 45 73 44 72 / 0 10 10 0 Winston 47 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 55 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 86 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 48 79 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 82 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 82 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 55 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers  393 FXUS65 KGGW 200436 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1036 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A frontal passage will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An isolated storm or two may be on the stronger side with wind gusts to 60 mph. - A second round of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the ND border Thursday afternoon. - Warmer temperatures are expected beginning Friday with 80s for highs beginning Sunday onward. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Forecast begins with northwest flow running from British COlumbia through eastern Montana and to the central US Plains. A series of ridge trough couplets are embedded within this flow pattern. Today into Tonight: the first upper trough in NW flow moves into the area this morning. This system will bring a cold front across eastern montana this afternoon and evening with rain showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. SPC's HREF shows some isolated cells within this frontal passage producing wind gusts up to 60 mph which will need to be monitored. The passage itself looks like it will start about a 6 hour trek across the area starting around noon and exiting around 6 to 7 PM. Precip will be very hit-and-miss with most areas receiving nothing but a few location getting 1 to 2 tenths of an inch max. Thursday: the surface trough that moves into the region during the previous afternoons kind of stalls out at the ND border and will become a focal point from the morning to afternoon hours for additional showers and isolated thunderstorms. These do not look severe yet at this time. Thursday night into Sunday: Conditions will clear and warm through these time periods with maybe a weak shower possible Saturday night. Sunday night onward: Synoptic ensembles are starting to firm up on a ridge moving into the region and then closing up into a high pressure system for a short time MOnday and Tuesday with very warm temperatures. Butting up against this will be a deeply amplified trough across the Pacific Northwest. These two features will play chicken for awhile with a chance at the high/ridge over eastern Montana to break down and southern flow with strong thunderstorms to take over Tuesday to Thursday afternoon. If the ridge stays put, we'll be dry and hot. If it moves forward then we become wet quickly with possible severe Wx depending on timing. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes to NBM were focused to hourly PoPs in the late afternoon and evening along with during the day on Wednesday. Hourly NBM data had a definitive 6 hour bias that was throwing natural hourly trends off. Used and NPoP blend of available CAMs and shrink stretched up PoPs a few percent afterward to try to quick blend in a slightly better trend. Also did this for Wind and Wind Gust to better capture the timing of the frontal passage that was washed out by NBM. Confidence in timing any showers and thunderstorms today is HIGH. Confidence in severe winds gusts from cells embedded in the system Wednesday is LOW. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0345Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. DISCUSSION: Expect VFR and mid to high clouds across the region through the night and early morning Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area late morning to early afternoon and take about a 6 hour trek across the region. There is a outside chance (5-20%) for one or two cells to become severe with wind gusts up to 50kts, but the chance at any given terminal is too low to place in the TAFs directly till they are clear on radar this coming afternoon. Storms should exit all terminals by about 02Z before clearing out for most of the night with only and isolated showers possible from then on. LLWS: There is a small chance(10-30%) for some low level wind shear at KGDV and KSDY between 06Z and 12Z this morning. WIND: S to SW at 10 to 15 kts through mid morning. Veering W in the late morning. Briefly increasing to 15-25 kts with the frontal passage this afternoon. Becoming light and variable Wednesday evening. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  414 FXUS66 KHNX 200436 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 936 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low relative humidities in the lower elevations of Central California brings at least a moderate risk of Fire Danger this week. 2. Warming trend continues for the remainder of this week. 3. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... Today's highs in the San Joaquin Valley were in the upper 80's to 90 degrees. Winds were once again mainly light, but relative humidity has been lowering in the afternoon. Many locations lowered to the teens in the SJ Valley and into the adjacent foothills. This continues a moderate risk of more wildfires developing, such as grass and brush fires. The warming trend continues Wednesday until Friday. There is a moderate to high probability of a 95 degree reading, with a higher chance on Thursday (70-80 percent) in the San Joaquin Valley. Readings of 90 degrees or warmer have a moderate probability (40-50 percent) in the Kern County desert. High pressure will continue to build over the region through late this week. High temperatures in the weekend continue to have a moderate to high chance to reach into the 90s in many of the lower elevation locations as the ridge of high pressure persists into Saturday. Although, forecast highs moderate slightly Sunday through next Tuesday. There is an upper-level trough that will gradually move southward from the Pacific Northwest late Monday into next Tuesday. However, moisture passes mainly to our north with this feature. For now, we are still looking at a dry forecast for the next several days. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low relative humidity values continue throughout the San Joaquin Valley, the adjacent coastal ranges, lower Sierra Nevada foothills, and the Kern County mountains and desert for the remainder of this week. Minimum humidity in most areas will fall below 15 percent each day. The predominant threats for fire weather will be rapidly developing and spreading grass and brush fires. Winds will generally remain light through the period. However, with the warming trend will come lower humidity, and there will also be poor to moderate overnight humidity recovery. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ BSO weather.gov/hanford  470 FXUS64 KHGX 200438 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1138 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this week with the first round arriving tonight. Strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging winds as the main threat. Locally heavy rainfall also expected. - Rain and storm chances remain elevated through the entire holiday weekend with periods of locally moderate to heavy rain, potentially leading to localized flooding. - The threat of hazardous rip currents remains through at least midweek before marine hazards transition to thunderstorm-driven waves. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wetter conditions are expected this week and into Memorial Day weekend with multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain. Synoptically speaking, a broad longwave trough will continue to deepen and move across the Rockies and into the Plains today, persisting through the rest of the week. With a persistent southwesterly flow aloft, this trough is helping to eject multiple impulses of energy/disturbances ahead of it, resulting in increased dynamics/forcing across the region. At the surface, a warm and very moist airmass (PWAT near/at the climatological max for mid-May) along with an approaching frontal boundary from the north, will be enough to support a daily risk of showers and storms. This afternoon/early evening: A warm and humid airmass remains in place over the region. With moderate instability, and weak boundary (-ies) meandering over the area; we expect to see isolated to scattered activity. Tonight into Wednesday: The first round of scattered to widespread showers and storms is expected as early as this evening, continuing into early Wednesday. Early this afternoon, satellite and surface obs showed a cold front slowly moving southeast into north-central TX. While this front is forecast to remain to our west, a fairly unstable warm and moist airmass ahead of it, combined with deep moisture convergence due to a developing surface trough, and forcing aloft could potentially lead to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor these clusters of storms as they could potentially evolve into a line of bowing segments, capable of producing damaging winds. SPC highlights this threat in their Day 1 Outlook with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across our far western counties, and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) elsewhere. In addition to strong to severe storms, locally moderate to heavy rain is expected with the strongest storms. Forecast rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected with isolated higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches possible. Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will likely leading to localized flash flooding along with quick responses on area rivers and creeks. Rain/storms should gradually taper off early Wednesday morning. While a lull in activity is possible during the day, cannot ruled out isolated to scattered showers/storms popping up in the afternoon with the peak of daytime heating. Thursday and Friday: Periods of showers and storms will continue as more disturbances aloft move through the region. The next mesoscale convective system is forecast to move through on Thursday during the day, with an additional isolated to scattered activity on Friday. Specific details on the exact timing and location of the heaviest rain remain difficult to determine; however, widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with isolated higher amounts up to 4 inches possible. Memorial Day Weekend ( Saturday - Monday): A continuos parade of disturbances aloft combined with sufficient deep moisture will support additional periods of showers and storms through the entire holiday weekend. Based on the latest trends, forecast rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are possible. Locally higher totals possible,especially with the strongest storms. With the ground already saturated from previous rainfall, soils will be primed for runoff, leading to flooding problems in areas of heavy downpours. While confidence is high for a wet weekend, confidence in the exact timing and location of the heaviest rain is low. Initial rounds of storms early in the week will potentially affect any storms later in the week. Focus on the potential impacts and stay tuned to the latest forecast, especially if you have outdoor plans this Memorial Day weekend. See Hydrology section below for more information on forecast rainfall and potential flooding. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Two lines of TSRA are the primary concern tonight. One line is about to push offshore in the vicinity of Galveston Bay. The other one is moving east to southeastward from the Brazos Valley. Rain and storms will likely continue impacting many of our terminals tonight, until the storms push offshore by morning. Light to occasionally gusty E to ENE winds expected behind the storms. Near the coast, there may be a period of strong, gust E to SE winds as the storms push offshore. Mostly MVFR conditions expected in the morning, followed by a BKN VFR cloud deck in the afternoon. Next round of SHRA/TSRA may not arrive until late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Winds and seas will continue to weaken/subside this afternoon, with only some building seas up to 8ft persisting well offshore through early this evening. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this week, with the first one starting tonight and extending into early Wednesday morning. A few of these storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe with strong winds as the main threat. Locally heavy rain will also be expected. A daily risk of showers and storms will continue this week and persist through the Memorial Day weekend. Light to occasionally onshore winds should prevail through the period; however, stronger gusts are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Regarding beach conditions, there is a high risk of rip currents persisting through the weekend. JM && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected this evening through Monday. The first round will start tonight bringing 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 5-7+". With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr are possible in the heaviest downpours. Anywhere we see these intense rainfall rates, localized flash flooding is possible. That being said, we are not anticipating widespread river flooding just yet; however, this will help prime the soils as we continue with a wet pattern. As the week progresses, multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall on top of primed soils will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall, flash and riverine flooding comes this holiday weekend as intense rainfall rates will bring accumulated values of 4-6+" across most of southeast Texas Saturday into Monday. Widespread action to minor stage flooding is expected with moderate to isolated major stage flooding possible depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 89 69 83 70 / 70 70 30 50 Houston (IAH) 89 71 86 73 / 60 60 50 20 Galveston (GLS) 87 75 85 78 / 50 80 60 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Self MARINE...JM  481 FXUS65 KGGW 200438 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1038 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A frontal passage will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An isolated storm or two may be on the stronger side with wind gusts to 60 mph. - A second round of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the ND border Thursday afternoon. - Warmer temperatures are expected beginning Friday with 80s for highs beginning Sunday onward. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Forecast begins with northwest flow running from British COlumbia through eastern Montana and to the central US Plains. A series of ridge trough couplets are embedded within this flow pattern. Today into Tonight: the first upper trough in NW flow moves into the area this morning. This system will bring a cold front across eastern montana this afternoon and evening with rain showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. SPC's HREF shows some isolated cells within this frontal passage producing wind gusts up to 60 mph which will need to be monitored. The passage itself looks like it will be a 6 hour trek across the area starting around noon and exiting around 6 to 7 PM. Precip will be very hit- and-miss with most areas receiving nothing but a few location getting 1 to 2 tenths of an inch max. Thursday: The surface trough that moves into the region during the previous afternoons kind of stalls out at the ND border and will become a focal point from the morning to afternoon hours for additional showers and isolated thunderstorms. These do not look severe yet at this time. Thursday night into Sunday: Conditions will clear and warm through these time periods with maybe a weak shower possible Saturday night. Sunday night onward: Synoptic ensembles are starting to firm up on a ridge moving into the region and then closing up into a high pressure system for a short time Monday and Tuesday with very warm temperatures. Butting up against this will be a deeply amplified trough across the Pacific Northwest. These two features will play chicken for awhile with a chance at the high/ridge over eastern Montana to break down and southern flow with strong thunderstorms to take over Tuesday to Thursday afternoon. If the ridge stays put, we'll be dry and hot. If it moves forward then we become wet quickly with possible severe Wx depending on timing. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes to NBM were focused to hourly PoPs in the late afternoon and evening along with during the day on Wednesday. Hourly NBM data had a definitive 6 hour bias that was throwing natural hourly trends off. Used and NPoP blend of available CAMs and shrink stretched up PoPs a few percent afterward to try to quick blend in a slightly better trend. Also did this for Wind and Wind Gust to better capture the timing of the frontal passage that was washed out by NBM. Confidence in timing any showers and thunderstorms today is HIGH. Confidence in severe winds gusts from cells embedded in the system Wednesday is LOW. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0345Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. DISCUSSION: Expect VFR and mid to high clouds across the region through the night and early morning Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area late morning to early afternoon and take about a 6 hour trek across the region. There is a outside chance (5-20%) for one or two cells to become severe with wind gusts up to 50kts, but the chance at any given terminal is too low to place in the TAFs directly till they are clear on radar this coming afternoon. Storms should exit all terminals by about 02Z before clearing out for most of the night with only and isolated showers possible from then on. LLWS: There is a small chance(10-30%) for some low level wind shear at KGDV and KSDY between 06Z and 12Z this morning. WIND: S to SW at 10 to 15 kts through mid morning. Veering W in the late morning. Briefly increasing to 15-25 kts with the frontal passage this afternoon. Becoming light and variable Wednesday evening. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  507 FXUS63 KDDC 200439 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1139 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably cool temperatures continue through Wednesday. - Rain chances (70-90%) return Wednesday night/Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a broad trough of low pressure slowly transitioning east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is expanding eastward across the Northern High Plains into the Dakotas. Unseasonably cool/dry conditions will persist early in the period as surface high pressure shifts east across the Upper Midwest tonight, and into the Great Lakes Region Wednesday. Rain chances (70-90%) return Wednesday night as the SREF indicates a series of H5 vort maxima associated with an upper level shortwave trough ejecting out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a prevailing east-southeast upslope flow will pull moisture into southwest/south central Kansas pushing surface dewpoints back up into the 50s(F), bringing about minimal instability. Combined with a modest field of +50kt southwesterlies aloft and sufficient lift within easterly upsloping, rain development is expected across portions of western Kansas Wednesday evening and continuing into Thursday. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with some instability present. As suggest by the HREF, the best chance for appreciable rainfall will be across west central Kansas into portions of southwest Kansas where there is a 70-90% probability of 24-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by early Thursday morning. Additional periods of light/moderate rain are possible through the day Thursday with a broader scale upper level trough holding in place across the Intermountain West. Unseasonably cool temperatures are likely tonight as surface high pressure moving through the Upper Midwest reinforces the cooler air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas. Look for lows generally in the 40s(F) with the HREF painting a 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 45F across much of southwest Kansas to only a 10-30% probability of slipping below 45F in south central Kansas. The trend continues Wednesday with easterly upsloping doing little to erode the air mass in place, holding H85 temperatures to around 10-12C across the area. Widespread afternoon highs in the 60s(F) can be expected with the HREF indicating a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F with highs nearing 70F in south central Kansas. Similar temperatures are likely Thursday, especially with lingering precip and prevailing mostly cloudy to overcast skies. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period although lowered flight conditions may occur near the end of the period. Mostly weak surface highs aloft are present to start the period; light winds (5- 15 KTs) out of the east are forecast to continue. By around 2Z, lowered cloud cover and scattered showers are expected at or around all stations. Prior to 6Z, ensembles keep chances for <3k ft ceilings and probability of precipitation below 50%. However, it is very feasible that one more multiple sites may see lowered flight conditions in the TAF period owing to one or both of these conditions and future aviation forecasts will have more refined guidance. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...KBJ  551 FXUS66 KMTR 200440 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 940 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 138 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 - Diurnally driven winds expected this week, with onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening. - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 138 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) Winds have eased across the region with most sites currently reporting light offshore winds under 10 mph. Breezy, onshore afternoon winds are likely along the coast and within mountain gaps/passes. Not too much change to the overall synoptic pattern, broad upper level troughing continues over the western United States with an area of ridging and surface high pressure to our west over the Pacific. The center of the upper level trough continues to progress eastward with the surface pressure gradient becoming more relaxed, allowing wind speeds to diminish overall. The marine layer continues to be mixed out thanks to high pressure offshore which is allowing warmer temperatures to spread across the region. High temperatures will be seasonably warm today and again tomorrow with interior highs in the 80s to possibly the low 90s and coastal highs in the 60s to 70s. Critically dry conditions continue across the interior with the majority of stations reporting RH values in the 10s to 20s. Not much relief from drier conditions has been observed overnight with most sites only seeing overnight humidity recoveries to around 20-30%. This same pattern is expected to continue again on Wednesday with no real relief until the marine layer redevelops late week into the weekend. Fire weather concerns thus remain elevated given the critically dry conditions across the interior. If you are participating in any outdoor activities involving sparks or flame, exercise caution and be aware that fine fuels are very flammable at this time. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 138 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) The general pattern remains the same through Thursday with high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s to 70s along the coast, diurnally breezy winds, and critically dry daytime conditions across the interior. A gradual pattern change will begin Thursday into Friday, becoming more noticeable over the weekend, as high pressure weakens, shifting west, and broad troughing dominates the West Coast. Winds will generally shift onshore again by Friday with a shallow marine layer redeveloping. High temperatures will generally drop into the 70s across the interior and 70s to mid 80s across the interior Central Coast while coastal highs stay in the 50s to 60s. As the marine layer redevelops, we will see improving humidity values across the interior which will reduce our overall fire weather concerns. Initially the marine layer will be around 500 ft Thursday into Friday but is expected to deepen to around 1000 ft by the weekend. Diurnally breezy afternoon/evening winds continue with breezier winds along the coast and in mountain gaps/passes. The initial NBM forecast shows temperatures warming back into the 80s by early next week. The caveat to this is that models are split between upper level ridging and upper level troughing developing over the West Coast towards the end of May. If ridging is able to develop, warmer temperatures are likely to round out the month but if troughing is able to develop then slightly cooler temperatures are more likely. In the troughing scenario, there is the possibility of some light rain but the more likely setup is a deep marine layer and coastal drizzle. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 926 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of MVFR at HAF. Winds may become calm and/or light and variable overnight. Low to moderate confidence in IFR conditions developing at terminals tonight - the most likely timeframe is 12Z to 16Z. Coastal terminals will be at greatest risk with risk decreasing for bayshore and interior terminals, respectively. Higher confidence in IFR conditions returning tomorrow night. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Moderate to high confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Low probability for sub-VFR conditions to develop at the terminal tonight as the compressed marine layer will be unable to penetrate the San Bruno Gap. Reasonable worst case scenario is stratus sneaks through the Golden Gate Gap and brings FEW/SCT to the north side of the terminal. SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach has a lower probability of sub-VFR conditions. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with northerly flow at SNS. Confidence has increased in sub-VFR conditions developing at the terminals tonight, especially for MRY. Ceilings will likely be on the cusp of IFR/LIFR. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 926 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue through Wednesday for the northern outers due to rough seas and strong northerly breezes. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes and moderate seas will prevail. Conditions improve into the weekend as seas and northwesterly breezes become moderate. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  577 FXUS66 KSGX 200441 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 941 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures for the mountains and deserts will warm through Thursday. High temperatures for the coast and valleys will warm several more degrees today, then slowly cool into next weekend. Night and morning coastal low clouds will return and increase in coverage during the middle of the week, then spread farther into the inland valleys by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... New Aviation and Marine Discussion... As of 2:00 PM PDT, satellite depicts mostly clear skies with an isolated patch of cirrus clouds. Temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday inland, reaching into the mid-to-upper 80s through the Inland Empire and the upper 70s/low 80s for inland areas of San Diego and Orange Counties. Most of the lowlands are experiencing a typical May sea breeze. The San Diego to Tonopah pressure gradient has remained constant at around -5 mbs, yielding to offshore flow (N/NE winds) and lower humidity through most of the Inland Empire and in the mountains. As a result, relative humidities are 10-20% in the mountains and 15-30% through the Inland Empire. The sea breeze boundary will push eastward through the foothills and mountains this afternoon, increasing humidities this evening through the boundary layer - below 3000-400 feet elevation. This morning's sounding showed a marine layer thickness of around 2500 feet deep, and with similar 700-mb heights, the marine layer should settle to a similar depth tonight, where humidities will mostly recover above 50% overnight (80% closer to the coast). Clouds will struggle to develop, however, and should be restricted to coastal San Diego County should any clouds develop (65-75% chance). While 500-mb heights don't change much, the weak surface high pressure in the Great Basin creating offshore flow will continue to move eastward. Temperatures will warm in the deserts through Thursday, which will increase the onshore pressure gradient and enhance the sea breeze. The marine layer will gradually deepen each day, with higher chances for more broad coverage into the Inland Empire Thursday morning. While there isn't a strong temperature trend this week, temperatures peak Wednesday for inland areas (mid-80s - low 90s) and Thursday through the low deserts (approaching 100 degrees). && .LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)... Temperatures in the mountains and deserts look to remain relatively constant through next Monday. At the coast and through the inland valleys, temperatures look to gradually decrease a degree or two each day through Sunday, with perhaps a steeper decrease in temperatures Monday onward, contingent upon a trough digging deep from the Pacific Northwest into Southern California. Based on WPC 500-mb clusters, about 30% of ensemble runs are converging on this solution, while others build a ridge to the northwest, though keeping heights above Southern California around normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... 200430Z...Mostly clear skies expected over most of the area through the TAF period with the exception to southern coastal San Diego, up to 20 miles inland. Low clouds are expected to move inland after 09- 10Z, increasing in coverage through 14-15Z with bases around 1000- 2000ft MSL. Low clouds are expected to clear after 16-17Z. everywhere else, VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday morning. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Westerink AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane  646 FXUS64 KTSA 200444 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1144 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Abnormally cool weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week. - Rain and thunder chances will continue daily through the forecast period, with periods of heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Beneficial rain has fallen across eastern OK and northwest AR over the last 24 hours or so. Zones receiving the most rainfall have been: far northeast OK into far northwest AR and southeast OK, especially far southeast OK, where amounts have averaged between two to three inches. Most impressive amounts fell in parts of northeast Ottawa County, near the tri-state marker, where radar estimates around four inches or greater fell. A few elevated showers and sprinkles have developed along the I-44 corridor, near an elevated frontal boundary. Last few runs of the HRRR have been on the aggressive side of intensifying these showers/storms and expanding them into far eastern OK and northwest AR after midnight. Brief pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible if this scenario occurs as they progress eastward through the overnight period tonight. Additional rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch will be possible, especially across far northwest AR. Precipitation chances will begin to trend lower by or just after daybreak Wednesday and is forecast to remain mostly dry through the remainder of the day. A few isolated/spotty showers and storms are possible in the afternoon, mostly affecting parts of southeast OK and northwest AR, but no hazardous impacts are expected. Cloud cover will remain fairly thick through Wednesday morning, but some breaks and thinning of clouds may occur during the afternoon, especially portions of southeast OK. Cloud cover will keep temperatures generally below average through the daytime, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-upper 60s to lower 70s north of I-40 and mid-upper 70s to near 80 degrees south of I-40. If enough sunlight is able to break through the clouds, temps may warm up closer to average. Next best chance of widespread rain, with isolated thunderstorms, will arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another mid-level shortwave trough approaches the area from the southwest. Very limited instability and weak flow aloft will suppress any chance of severe storms, but moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs increase between 1.5-1.75 inches across the area by sunrise Thursday morning. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered to numerous showers, with embedded scattered thunderstorms, will likely be ongoing Thursday morning as a mid- level shortwave trough, downstream from its parent trough axis, pivots northeastward across the forecast area. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement an uptick in precipitation intensity will occur late in the morning through the afternoon. Despite an increase in moisture and instability by Thursday afternoon, wind shear is still expected to be weak and should keep any severe potential very low to none. Will continue to monitor trends in data. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main concern as it may lead to nuisance flooding and potentially flash flooding through the daytime Thursday and into Thursday night. Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by Friday, though models and ensembles continue to support the idea of multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain each day through the upcoming weekend. Signals in model data suggest the brunt of the heaviest rainfall will occur mainly late evening through the overnight period each night Friday night through Sunday night. Once again, severe potential is expected to be very limited to none as flow aloft remains too weak to support organized severe storms through the upcoming weekend. However, efficient elevated instability and abnormally high PWATs through the period will maintain the risk of heavy rainfall and potential flooding, including river flooding, each day/night. Mejia && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Challenging aviation forecast for the next 24 hours with ongoing IFR/MVFR conditions in both visibilities and ceilings, as well as potential for shower/thunderstorm impacts at all sites. In general, will keep a multi-hour period of reduced ceilings everywhere, with FSM /currently the lone holdout/ likely to develop a ceiling near the beginning of the period given observations just north and west. CAMs continue to depict an expanding region of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the next couple of hours, with the most substantial impacts at the W AR sites. Radar some showing some development just SW of FSM at the moment, as well as back to the west in central OK. Will generally keep PROB30s given uncertainty in coverage, with thunder mention limited to MLC/FSM. During the last half of the period some improvement in ceilings is expected, particularly at MLC/FSM, which has a medium to high chance of a period of VFR conditions. Any additional shower/thunderstorm impacts should hold off until the end of this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 56 68 60 72 / 50 20 40 90 FSM 65 80 65 77 / 50 20 30 60 MLC 60 76 64 75 / 50 20 30 90 BVO 51 66 54 70 / 50 10 50 80 FYV 59 73 61 75 / 60 30 20 70 BYV 59 69 59 73 / 60 20 20 50 MKO 58 72 62 73 / 50 20 30 90 MIO 55 65 58 72 / 50 10 40 80 F10 57 71 61 73 / 40 20 40 90 HHW 64 80 65 74 / 60 30 40 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...22  982 FXAK67 PAJK 200452 AAA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 750 PM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Wednesday a gale force system brings widespread rain to the region. - Showers over the panhandle on Thursday, then another front weakening and falling apart Friday. - Quick look at the holiday weekend is, it is becoming more likely that a potentially stronger Summer system to move to the panhandle Sunday. && .SHORT TERM...The active (by spring standards) pattern looks set to continue through the duration of the period, as a series of troughs and ridges continue to move up along the eastern flank of a Rossby wave over the Pacific. A ridge moving over the southern panhandle will bring drier weather through late Tuesday night for areas south of Frederick Sound. The northern half of SE AK will see lingering showers as moisture rotates in along the ridge axis, further fueled by the remnants of a shortwave trough which will move in through Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, a far better developed system moves into the Gulf, deepening as it moves toward Anchorage. The low will throw a gale force front into the panhandle, which is progged to arrive Wednesday morning across the Outer Coast and by Wednesday afternoon for the rest of the area. This front will bring with it periods of widespread moderate rain and windy conditions. Given the presence of saturation across the atmospheric column, most of SE AK will see a total of ~1 to 2 inches of rain. Given the system's trajectory,the NE Gulf Coast favored for the greater totals. The far southern panhandle will be the exception, as they could receive lower totals of ~0.5 to 1 inch as the bulk of the initial system moves north, although a trailing cold front moving through Wednesday night will bring some additional rainfall to this area. Flooding concerns are not expected, as snow levels will remain on the lower side for this time of year, and so do not expect much augmentation of the streams from mountain runoff, alongside the rain itself. Some snow may mix in with rain during the overnight hours - especially Thursday night - at White Pass, but do not expect any significant accumulations. Gusty winds will also be widespread, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph on Wednesday across much of central and northern SE AK, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph for the southern panhandle. The system will depart on Thursday, with another ridge moving across the panhandle. Similar to the previous ridge, the best chances of some lingering rain showers will be for the northern half of the area and the inner coastal mountains, while the south will be mostly on the drier side by late Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will trend toward the cooler side, with low temperatures getting down into the low 40s or even upper 30s. .LONG TERM.../ Friday to Tuesday / A front sweeps the western gulf Thursday evening and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night and Friday. Yakutat should see good rain rates Thursday night and early. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend. For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / Damp conditions look to be the norm for Saturday as an area of vorticity/trough like feature moves through the panhandle. Highest likelihood of precipitation is from the central panhandle southward, though the amount of precip looks to be light. For Sunday into Monday however, what was looking like a decent strength system heading toward Dixon Entrance area yesterday, has switched tracks farther south, taking any higher winds and precip mostly with it. Only the GFS is keeping more impactful winds and precip in the area for Sunday into Monday (though it is an outlier), and even then it is mostly for the southern half of the panhandle. This farther south track does mean a higher likelihood of drier weather for the northern panhandle Sunday into Monday due to downsloping conditions from easterly flow, and there is a chance that the drier weather could extend into the south as well if the current southward trend of the low track continues. Monday could also turn out to be one of the warmer days of the weekend with high temps approaching the upper 50s with several breaks in the cloud cover possible. Into mid next week the trend reverses back to damp and cool conditions as more systems come into the panhandle from the gulf. && .AVIATION... Other than some brief CIGS between 1500-2500 ft dropping conditions to MVFR, on shore flow is bringing generally VFR conditions across the area today. Late tonight into Wednesday morning, a front will bring rain chances and strong winds to the Panhandle. LLWS is expected begin for Yakutat around 08Z with 30 kts and increasing to 45kts around 15Z. All locations will see an increase in wind speed, and this front will also increase precipitation chances from west to east across the Panhandle. Expect conditions to deteriorate to IFR for the Southern Panhandle with CIGS AoA 700 ft and VSBYS 3-4 SM. Tonight, clearing is expected to lead to fog development for areas south of Fredrick Sound. The fog will bring those locations down to IFR conditions, and will likely stay through the rainfall arriving with the front around the end of the TAF period. Based on satellite, Klawock is experiencing the most clearing and the greatest chance for fog. Although, brief improvement does look possible before the rain arriving with the front. && .MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):On this beautiful Southeast day, winds and seas are in the relative calm before the gale, with coastal buoys and ASCAT winds showing gentle to moderate breezes out of the south; the exception is Cape St. Elias, seeing ESE strong breezes. Riding underneath these winds was a diminishing southwest swell, with buoy 84 showing an astonishingly clear swell signal 12-14 seconds at 6 ft earlier today. The story will begin to change today as a gale force front impacts the region over the next 48 hours; currently this system is developing near 48N 158W and moving northeast. As gales build along Cape St. Elias Tuesday evening, winds will continue to increase along the rest of our coast, reaching near-gale to gale force by Wednesday morning. Confidence is high that we will see gales from the Fairweather Grounds to the northern coast. The primary forecast challenge for winds today remains in how far south gale force winds will move. Mariners north of Cape Decision operating along the coast should plan for a few hours of gale force winds as the front moves over, sometime near 2pm to 5pm local time Wednesday. Fresh seas out of the southeast will also begin to dominate, with southwest swell being masked and significant heights reaching 12 to 15 ft by Wednesday afternoon. Expect winds and seas to diminish Thursday afternoon before westerly swell of 7 to 9 ft at 13 to 15 seconds begins to impact our coast by the weekend. Inside (Inner Channels): Winds are in their calm period this Tuesday afternoon. Expect winds to build out of the south early Wednesday morning, with sustained winds reaching peak intensity of strong breezes to near- gales through many inner channels Wednesday. Current model consensus is the strongest winds will occur sometime in the afternoon to evening, depending on where you are in Southeast, with the highest winds from Icy Strait/Taku south to Sumner.However, the simple message is it will be a wet and windy Wednesday, with subpar conditions for folks wishing to move around in small recreational vessels. Conditions will improve greatly by Thursday afternoon. One word of caution is the northern arms of Glacier Bay could be particularly strong Wednesday night into Thursday morning as an occluding front makes landfall along the northern coast. Expect strong southeast winds to quickly becoming south; this wind shift could surprise some folks. Mariners near any large inlets in the upper arms of Glacier Bay like Reid Inlet should be ready for gale force gusts coming off the ice field. These gusts could be stronger. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ323-325- 327. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM...Bezenek AVIATION...Musall MARINE...AP Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  117 FXUS63 KILX 200456 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1156 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier and cooler weather returns briefly for midweek. The pattern turns unsettled once again late this week into the weekend with several opportunities for showers and scattered storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Updated the forecast to significantly reduce PoPs this evening and limit northward expansion of PoPs overnight. 0130z/830pm regional radar mosaic shows pre-frontal convection E/SE of the KILX CWA from southern Indiana southwestward to the Ozarks. While an isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out south of I-70, it appears cloudy and dry conditions will prevail across the board through midnight. As a short-wave trough over the lower Mississippi River Valley pivots northeastward and interacts with the slowly departing boundary, showers will develop across southern Illinois and spread northward late tonight into Wednesday morning. HRRR/RRFS indicate the bulk of the showers focusing along/south of I-70 and think this seems reasonable given the influx of drier boundary layer air from the north. Have therefore opted to keep rain chances confined to the SE CWA late tonight...eventually reaching as far north as a Danville to Shelbyville line Wednesday morning before shifting into Indiana during the afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Midday surface analysis shows a ~1004 mb low north of the Great Lakes Region in southeast Ontario with a trailing cold front stretched from northern Michigan through the middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a few remnant outflow boundaries from overnight convection are noted with the most predominant one stretched from roughly Robinson to Lawrenceville as of 1 pm. This boundary is moving steadily to the east and will likely be the main focus for scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon into evening. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s out ahead of the front/outflow boundary have allowed SBCAPE to become moderately strong. More favorable deep layer shear will be displaced closer to the cold front, though high PWATs and steep low-level lapse rates may be enough to support a few damaging wind gusts. The 12Z CAMs have shown a shift eastward with storm activity, with the focus being southeast of a Terre Haute to Flora line through early evening. The 19.12Z HREF 24 hour LPMM shows localized pockets of 1- 2"+ of rain occuring with storms, which looks to be south and east of the hardest hit rain areas from yesterday. The cold front will work through the area this evening, reaching the Ohio Valley around midnight. Much of the precipitation should come to an end as the front moves through later this evening. However, a shortwave trough lifting from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley will nudge the front back northward overnight and spread light shower and isolated thunder chances back into southeast parts of the state through Wednesday morning. High pressure ridging will increase large-scale subsidence and ultimately push the front back south of here, putting an end to the precipitation by Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will shield us briefly from precipitation, with cooler and drier conditions expected through much of Thursday. A western trough will work into the central US and spawn several shortwaves into the Midwest states late this week through the weekend, bringing the return of scattered precipitation chances. Temperatures and moisture will steadily increase through the weekend and may support the development of thunderstorms at times. However, overall weak forcing should largely mitigate any chances for severe weather through early next week. Machine learning probabilities support this by keeping any chances for severe weather south of here. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cooler, drier continental airmass is settling over the Great Lakes region behind a cold front. This will gradually shift the back edge of MVFR ceilings south of the central Illinois terminals overnight. Winds will generally remain northerly through Wednesday morning, shifting northeast prior to sunset. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES... UPDATE...Barnes DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...MJA  134 FXUS65 KFGZ 200457 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 957 PM MST Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week and next weekend, along with typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION...The remainder of the week will feature a slow and steady rise in temperatures, dry conditions and generally light southwesterly winds each afternoon. A weak trough does persist over the area through at least Friday, so some of those afternoon gusts may have a little extra speed at times, but nothing impactful. By next weekend, ridging forms over the area and we should expect temperatures to rise a bit above normal as a result. However, it still looks very dry. There are some hints of a modest increase in mid-level moisture for Sunday/Monday, which could lead to isolated and high-based showers. However, amounts are likely to remain in the trace category, or just VIRGA. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 20/06Z through Thursday 21/06Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, S-SW 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts daytime. OUTLOOK...Thursday 21/06Z through Saturday 23/06Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Daytime winds SW-W 5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. Winds are west through southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each day, along with a minimum RH of 5-15%. Friday through Sunday....Continued dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds are west through southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum RH is 5-15% on Friday, then 10-20% on Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  205 FXUS64 KMEG 200459 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1159 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through tonight and into Wednesday morning. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist each day into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. - Past Tuesday, temperatures will be near normal with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A broad jet streak remains over the central Plains, extending east into the Great Lakes region with a weaker belt of southwesterlies over the Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms pushed a front into the region this afternoon from the northwest, which continues to produce showers and thunderstorms as of 03z. Mesoanalysis shows ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE, which should support continued thunderstorm development along the boundary through the night. The complex is expected to continue east, posing only a marginal damaging wind threat and localized flooding. Recent HRRR/RAP runs redevelop storms across the Mississippi River Delta after 06z along an area of 925mb - 850mb convergence or weak frontogenesis. However, this convection is expected to remain sub- severe considering weak to non-existent effective shear and a decrease in MUCAPE to at or below 500 J/kg. Showers will remain across the region into Wednesday morning as the front stalls due to upper height rises with a steady decrease in convective coverage through the morning. Clouds and remnant showers will lead to lower high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Although the temperatures will decrease, the front's inability to meaningfully clear the region will allow for moisture to remain. Therefore, dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s, leading to very muggy, humid conditions. The upper profile will also follow the same picture with moist- adiabatic temperature profiles and 1.8" - 2.0" PWATs throughout the region, producing enough MUCAPE and/or MLCAPE for additional convective development through the afternoon hours. Height rises and very low shear will keep the severe threat at bay, but scattered heavy downpours are expected. This pattern looks likely to persist as ensembles have converged on the ridge axis nudging east of the region, allowing for multiple, weak shortwaves to propagate into the region through the end of the week. The air mass will remain very moist with 90%+ percentile PWATs residing through the area, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, and also keeping temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Coverage will be dependent on the upper forcing available, which appears to be maximized Friday as a more notable shortwave passes over the region. Enough effective shear and MLCAPE will overlap to produce the potential for a low-end severe damaging wind threat. This feature will pass Saturday, likely leading to somewhat of a decrease in convective coverage, but rainfall is still expected across the region through Sunday. Through Sunday, an area of 50 kt mid-level flow will eject from northwestern Mexico and travel northeast towards the Mid-South, amplifying into a closed upper low. The eastern side of the upper low will contain a region of 40+ kt southerlies that will overspread the region. Although models have struggled with run-to- run consistency regarding this feature, there is growing confidence in an enhanced low-level response within a very moist air mass. If a broad warm sector can maintain its instability into the afternoon, another marginal threat for damaging wind gusts could materialize. However, closed upper lows are very often subject to large model variability and changes to this forecast are expected in the coming days, but current trends have pointed towards this solution. Model variability regarding the evolution of the upper low only grows through the end of the period Tuesday, but the background synoptic pattern will largely remain the same with a ridge centered over the southern Atlantic coastline and broad troughing over the western CONUS. Therefore, rainy and unsettled weather still seems on the table next Tuesday that could last beyond the forecast period into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Another complex TAF period ongoing with scattered SHRA/TSRA ongoing. Most of the activity is currently east of the MS River, so have -SHRA mention for MEM/MKL/TUP. Guidance continues to want to bring at least MVFR cigs overnight across the airspace, with a chance for IFR cigs at times. These MVFR cigs are expected to remain in place through the remainder of the current TAF period. As for SHRA/TSRA tomorrow afternoon, confidence is too low to include any mention outside of TUP. Expect for winds to remain fairly variable through at least the first half of the day tomorrow, finally settling to northerly by 00Z. Occasional stronger gusts cannot be ruled out in TSRA, otherwise winds will remain below 10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40%. Expect showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through Memorial Day Weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CMA