459 FXUS61 KPBZ 200503 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 103 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains largely unchanged, with continued confidence in storm arrival in eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania after 8 PM tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Highest risk for severe storms/damaging wind gusts will be in areas of northwest PA/eastern OH, with diminishing risk near Pittsburgh. Conditional severe threats remain on Wednesday southeast of Pittsburgh with a departing front. 2) Strengthening signal for a wet Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mid-level capping (focused around 500mb per this morning's 12z sounding) is maintained through this afternoon and will keep ongoing isolated to scattered convective activity limited to showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two with a low severe threat. The upper ridge supporting that cap begins to break down in response to an encroaching Upper Midwest/Great Lakes shortwave, with 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE forecast to develop by this evening. A more organized severe thunderstorm threat remains possible in closer proximity to an advancing cold front that enters the area after 8pm. The most likely scenario presented by CAMS remains the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in western Ohio in the 6pm-8pm window along and ahead of the front, perhaps associated with a prefrontal trough. These storms should be weakening as they approach northwest PA/eastern OH after 9pm or so due to diurnal buoyancy loss as well as 20-25 knots of 0-6km shear fostering only loose organization/limited cold pool consolidation. Still, with up to 900 J/kg of DCAPE available north and west of Pittsburgh, strong to severe downdraft winds remain a decent possibility in the taller storms; this is the area highlighted in SPC's day 1 Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk. Hail is a lesser concern due to the lower shear and poor mid-level lapse rates less than 6C/km. Also, with around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1km storm- relative helicity available north of I-80, a tornado cannot be totally ruled out in this area as LCLs lower, although 0-3km CAPE may be a bit low. Convective intensity is expected to wane overnight as the parent cold front moves in, but some showers and storms will continue. Wednesday still presents a limited and conditional severe threat in the Laurels and in the WV ridges. This will depend on frontal timing and the amount of rain/cloud cover in the region during the morning into the afternoon. A slower front, with less precipitation and some cloud breaks out ahead, could allow sufficient destabilization for an isolated damaging wind threat. Scenarios with a faster front and more solid cloud cover could largely choke off the threat for strong convection. This will need to be monitored, and the SPC Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk southeast of Pittsburgh shows the potential threat area well. KEY MESSAGE 2... Probabilities for a soaking rain over Memorial Day Weekend continue to increase as an active pattern persists through that time. Latest guidance suggests a surface low lifts northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley to our west Friday into Saturday, bringing a warm front and widespread rain chances to the region. During that time, surface high pressure is forecast to be centered over the Upper Great Lakes and New England states. This setup is similar to past events that have generated 2+ inches of rainfall across the local area, though it should be noted that minor deviations (e.g., east-west positioning of the low or strength of the ridge) could result in the axis of heaviest rainfall shifting around (or away from) the local area. Latest NBM probabilities show a 60-80% chance for at least an inch of 24-hr rainfall accumulation Friday into Saturday, and a 20-40% chance for 2+ inches. A second wave of rain is then forecast later in the weekend, though that one appears a bit more progressive in nature and NBM probabilities reflect that with only a ~20% chance of exceeding an inch of 24-hr rainfall Sunday into Monday. Still, combined with the preceding Friday-Saturday rainfall, it is looking more possible that weekend totals approach or exceed 1-2 inches, and potentially even 3 inches (20% chance in NBM). It is still too early to discuss impacts as a lot could change over coming days, but this signal will warrant monitoring through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and a few thunderstorms have continued to diminish for most areas tonight as these have outrun the more favorable instability, looking at the latest mesoanalysis and 00Z instability charts. A cold front will continue to approach the area through morning, with additional showers crossing the area. MVFR restrictions are also expected to develop with increasing low level moisture associated with the front. A gradual decrease to IFR is expected for most ports after FROPA from mid morning into the afternoon. Areas from HLG to MGW will see a potential for a thunderstorm with diurnal instability building ahead of the later FROPA. Included a prob30 at HLG, with a tempo at MGW where there is a higher potential for thunderstorms from mid to late afternoon. A wind shift to the NW, and eventually N, is also expected after the passage of the front. Some improvement back to MVFR is expected by evening, though a crossing wave along the front could spread a few more showers across the region. Outlook... Restrictions will likely continue into tonight with the crossing wave along the front. VFR should return to most airports on Thursday as high pressure briefly builds in from the N, though MGW could see restrictions continue through late morning. Widespread restrictions in rain are expected to overspread the region from S-N Friday into Saturday with a warm front. Some improvement is possible Sunday until a cold front approaches later in the day. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cermak/CL AVIATION...WM  410 FXUS65 KPUB 200502 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1102 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and wetter weather continues tonight and Wednesday with a few inches of snow across the mountains, particularly north of highway 50. - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday across most of the southeast plains. - Gradual warming and drying over the weekend but active weather returns next week with the approach of another western U.S. upper low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Cooler temperatures and higher humidity have brought a much needed reprieve to the windy and dry conditions of late across the southeast plains today. Meanwhile, gusty southwest winds have returned to the mountains and San Luis Valley where winds have been gusting up to 45 mph at times. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and adjacent plains late this afternoon and evening. Best convective potential will be across the mountains where better surface heating has been occuring. Across the plains, a strong cap will remain in place though as the Great Basin upper trough translates eastward overnight, broad overrunning will combine with shallow easterly upslope flow to produce another round of stratiform rain and snow across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains. Heavier precipitation amounts will favor locations along and north of highway 50. Snow levels will be higher tonight than last night but some light snow accumulations will be possible above roughly 8500 feet. Otherwise, another cloudy night with increasing dew points in southeast surface flow should keep low temperatures above freezing for the southeast plains. Wednesday will start out cloudy and showery for the northern mountains and adjacent plains. This will be followed by partial clearing then another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing across the mountains, and spreading into the southeast plains Wednesday evening as forcing from the upper trough glances by to the north. Best thunderstorm chances will be across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains where CAPE of up to 750 J/kg will be in place. The southeast plains look capped initially but could see some broad overrunning precipitation Wednesday night as a southerly low level jet sets up to the east. Showers should pull eastward into KS towards morning. Overall, temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 60s to around 70 across the lower elevations and a mix of 40s and 50s for the mountains, with cooler readings above timberline. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Thunderstorm chances increase for Thursday with a better chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across the southeast plains in the afternoon and evening. Next upper trough will be dropping southward through the northern U.S. Rockies and swinging by to the north Thursday night. This forcing, along with better surface heating, continued low level moisture advection in southerly return flow, and decent deep layers shears, should trigger a round of scattered thunderstorms, some potentially severe, across the southeast plains. Models push a dry line northeastward off the Raton Mesa with easterly low level flow putting a ribbon of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE along the northern I-25 corridor counties of Pueblo and El Paso counties, eastward across portions of the southeast plains. Hodographs show some decent curvature, especially where surface winds are more easterly, and with deep layer shears around 40 kts, large hail, damaging winds and even an isolated tornado will be possible. There is still a bit of a cap farther east near KLAA in the afternoon, though a low level jet and cooling aloft with the incoming upper trough steepen lapse rates aloft Thursday night suggesting convective maintenance into the overnight across the eastern CO/western KS. Main severe risk would be in the afternoon and evening, especially for the I-25 corridor, but there is a fair chance of rain (50-70%) across much of the southeast plains. Western areas, by contrast, will remain dry and breezy. Temperatures warm around 5 degrees over those of Thursday. Cold front drops southward into the plains on Friday behind the departing upper wave. Some minor cooling and another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected for the southeast mountains and plains. Best CAPE will likely be to the south of CO or near our southern border along the frontal boundary. It remains an active pattern into next week with some minor ridging into Sunday leading to a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Enough moisture will be present for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The driest day looks to be Sunday. Troughing returns out west for Monday and Tuesday with southerly flow aloft across CO bringing return moisture and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the mountains. -KT && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1102 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 KCOS and KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF period as thick low level clouds persist and keep ceiling heights low. In addition, ongoing rain is expected to persist into the portions of the overnight hours, which will bring reduced visibilities as well. This rain is expected to end by early morning, with dry conditions lasting into the afternoon hours. With that said, showers and thunderstorms are again anticipated to push over the higher terrain and toward the TAF sites. These showers and storms may bring brief periods of reduced visibilities and sudden increase in winds. Otherwise, winds will continue to remain around and less than 10 knots through this TAF period. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. While dry conditions are expected through this TAF period, rain showers will be around with the San Luis Valley tonight, and these may impact the TAF site, bringing slightly reduced visibilities if so. Winds will remain light, at and less than 10 knots, through tomorrow morning, with winds quickly increasing in magnitude tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing develops. Otherwise, low to mid level clouds will steadily rise in heights through tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...SIMCOE  495 FXUS61 KOKX 200504 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 104 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 6Z Aviation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Heat Advisory remains in effect for NYC and northeast New Jersey as hot weather continues through Wednesday. 2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. 3) A much cooler airmass settles over the region Thursday into the holiday weekend with an ongoing chance of showers from time to time. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Southwest flow around an offshore high will continue to keep temperatures well above normal through the day on Wednesday. Temperatures have risen well into the 80s and 90s away from the immediate coastline so far today. Overnight lows will not provide much relief, only falling into the mid 70s across the NYC metro and remaining in the mid 60s across much of the rest of the area. While temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler than today, heat index values will once again rise into the mid 90s across much of New York City and northeast New Jersey. With this in mind, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas. Outside of the advisory area it will still be unseasonably warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coastline. .KEY MESSAGE 2... While an isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be completely ruled out this afternoon and evening across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern Connecticut, conditions overall are expected to remain dry as the best upper level support remains north of the area and subsidence helps to suppress convective development. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms exists on Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region. Precipitation chances will increase through the day, with the best chance for showers and storms between about 2pm-8pm. While storm coverage remains uncertain, any storms that do develop could contain strong gusty winds, with high resolution model soundings indicating the potential for 500-1000 J/kg of DCAPE during the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday. While brief heavy downpours are possible in any storms, overall these storms should be quick moving, which will mitigate the potential for any flooding. With the front lingering just offshore, shower chances will continue through Wednesday night across Long Island and portions of New York City. .KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure begins to build toward the region on Thursday in the wake of the front. This will bring an end to any lingering showers along the coast Thursday morning, with dry conditions continuing into the day on Friday. Temperatures will also be 15-20 degrees colder, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. This is near to even a few degrees below normal for this time of year. Disturbances in the mid levels are forecast to push into the region from mainly a southwest direction during the course of the holiday weekend. The higher likelihood of shower activity currently is slotted for Friday night into Saturday. Afterwards, subsequent shortwave timing differences take place among the various NWP and AI global guidance. Additional shortwaves are expected to move across Sunday, all while heights build along the Mid Atlantic coast. On Monday additional energy may attempt to work in, this time from the west. Therefore the expectation at this time is for intervals of unsettled conditions featuring on and off shower activity. Forecast uncertainty increases more for the second half of the holiday weekend, in particular for Sunday into Monday. A frontal boundary is progged to be stalled to the south throughout the holiday weekend, and may get north enough to bring another round of unsettled conditions with showers late Monday into Tuesday. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold frontal passage occurs this aftn and eve. High pres builds N of the area on Thu. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 18Z. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop after 18Z, with the best chance from 21-00Z. Kept TSRA chances in a PROB30 at this time as confidence in the coverage of TSRA remains uncertain. If a thunderstorm does occur, it could be strong to severe with brief strong gusty winds up to possibly 40 to 50 kt. MVFR or lower conditions possible in any TSRA. Aft the fropa, CIGS lower to around 4000ft overnight with the potential for additional shwrs. Confidence in shwrs is low so they have not been included in the TAFs. WSW winds this mrng, becoming NW this afternoon and evening aft the fropa. The flow veers further to the NE aft 8-9Z Thu. Wind speeds generally around 10-15 kt much of the TAF period with gusts to near 20 kt this afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible to refine timing of showers and thunderstorms today. MVFR CIGS possible aft 00Z Thu, but the probability was too low to include in the TAFs attm. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late Tonight: Mainly VFR with NW winds veering to the NE. Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions possible early for coastal terminals and NYC terminals at times with a chance of showers. Mainly VFR thereafter. Friday: Possible showers and MVFR conditions. Chances of showers increase late day into night. Showers become likely at night. Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt. Sunday: MVFR or lower with chances of showers. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters through the day on Wednesday. While gusts so far have remained below 25 kt, still expecting seas to build to 5-6 feet and remain elevated through the day on Wednesday. In addition to the elevated seas and marginally gusty winds, a cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening will bring with it the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Once the front passes, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels into Saturday morning before an increasing easterly flow brings advisory conditions to the ocean, and potentially to some of the non-ocean waters Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176- 178. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEB/JE AVIATION...JMC/MW MARINE...FEB/JE  602 FXUS65 KRIW 200507 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1107 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A clear sky allows low temperatures Tuesday night to fall into the 20s for many lower elevation locations. While it will be warmer Wednesday, high temperatures remain below normal. - Precipitation arrives from the northwest late Wednesday night and becomes widespread Thursday. Cooler temperatures by Thursday evening could lead to a period of light snow in upslope-favored areas around Lander and Beaver Rim. - Forecast trends continue to favor widespread high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s for the three-day Memorial Day holiday weekend. Other than a few late day showers, conditions look dry each day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Snow from yesterday is clear on satellite today, with a large portion of central and southern areas white. Melting will occur through the next couple days as daytime highs slowly increase. However, temperatures do remain on the cool side the next few days. As a result, Freeze Warnings are once again in effect for portions of the area that have seen an early start to the growing season. Lows tonight should be in the upper-20s to lower-30s east of the Divide, where the warnings currently are. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas of clouds still linger over central and southern portions of the CWA this morning, as expected. Low clouds have developed in the Upper Green River Basin, in the wake of the residual snow that fell through Monday evening. Low clouds/fog is also expected to develop near Pathfinder Reservoir in southern Natrona County as well as far eastern Sweetwater County near Wamsutter and Creston Junction. These clouds are expected to last through mid-morning. Travelers on I-80 and US-189/191 should exercise caution due to the reduced visibility. Otherwise, clouds will continue to scatter out through the rest of the morning with partly cloudy skies by 18Z. There is a 20-30% chance for fog/low clouds to develop in the Wind River Basin and areas near Casper. Cumulus clouds will begin to develop over the western mountains after 18Z, with isolated virga showers possible over northern portions of Yellowstone NP, the Cody Foothills, Hoback Junction and Lander/Fort Washakie. Temperatures will be about 10 to 20 degrees below normal today, with sub-freezing temperatures expected again tonight for most areas except northern portions of the Bighorn Basin. The warming trend continues Wednesday, but temperatures stay below normal for central and southern portions of the CWA. Conditions will be dry for most areas, with showers possible over far northern portions irt the next storm system approaching the Cowboy State from the north. Precipitation chances will be confined to northwestern portions Wednesday night, with snow levels between 7000 and 8000 ft, as the storm drops southward. The associated cold front will drop southward over the CWA through the overnight hours, extending from Buffalo to Kemmerer by sunrise Thursday morning. The front will then slowly push through Natrona and Sweetwater counties through the rest of the day. Most of the precipitation with this storm will occur along and behind of the front, being widespread across the CWA through the day Thursday. Rain could change over to snow along and north of a Meeteetse-to-Lovell line after 15Z, as the cold core from the storm pushes into the Bighorn Basin. The challenge will be if snowfall rates will be heavy enough to overcome the high May sun angle. Otherwise, any snow is likely to stay in grassy areas through the day. There could be a similar change over later in the afternoon at Lander. Both of these locations (mainly Cody and Lander) will have a good upslope component with north- northeast winds. There could be a 3 to 5 hour window for snow accumulation between 23Z and 04Z (5pm to 10pm), as the sun begins to wane in the evening. A leeside low will develop over the Black Hills around this time, generating a line of showers and thunderstorms over western portions of SD and NE. Drier air will quickly push in over western portions of the CWA as the storm moves over the aforementioned areas through the rest of the night into Friday morning. Precipitation will quickly end from west to east after 03Z as a result of the storm becoming better organized over SD/NE. However, precipitation looks to linger over Johnson and Natrona counties through the rest of the night. Rain or a rain/snow mix is likely at this time, with snow levels as low as 6000 ft. Initial snowfall amounts around 6 inches are forecasted over the Absaroka and Wind River Mountains and 6 to 10 inches over the northern half of the Bighorns. Temperatures rebound more quickly on Friday, staying at or slightly below normal as the storm quickly exits over the Plains. A pleasant holiday weekend is shaping up, with highs in the 70s and 80s by Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1042 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals Northwest flow aloft backs to the west as a shortwave drops south toward the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon. Weak showers develop over the mountains 19Z-21Z/Wednesday and move east into the basins and valleys around KJAC and KBPI. Any impacts would be brief and confidence is not high enough to include PROB30, with KJAC being the most likely terminal. Shortwave energy and deeper moisture reaches northwest Wyoming around KJAC late in the period, so a PROB30 group has been added beginning at 04Z/Thursday. In general, cloud cover increases and begins to slowly lower after 00Z/Thursday. Wednesday afternoon westerly surface wind 10-18kts decreases to 7- 10kts around 02Z/Thursday. Mountain tops occasionally obscured after 00Z/Thursday over northwest Wyoming. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals All terminals to be VFR through the forecast period. Weak showers develop over the Absaroka and Wind River Ranges 19Z-21Z/Wednesday and slowly track east into the basins during the afternoon. Impacts are likely to be confined to gusty outflow wind 25-35kts, with convection around KCOD the most likely to produce these gusts. Otherwise, KCPR to see 10-18kt westerly wind during the day with occasional late day westerly wind 9-13kts at KRIW and KLND. The arrival of more robust shortwave energy in northwest Wyoming leads to a better chance of light rain showers at KCOD late in the period. This shortwave will begin to push a cold front accompanied by northerly surface wind through the Bighorn Basin after about 03Z/Thursday. Mountain tops obscured after 00Z/Thursday in the Absaroka Range. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ005-006-011- 016>020. && $$ UPDATE...Wittmann DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...CNJ/LaVoie  697 FXUS63 KARX 200509 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1209 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Staying cool and mostly dry until Friday with increasing rain chances. - Warmer this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Today - Thursday: Dry with Below Normal Temperatures An overall benign pattern expected for the next 2 days with dry conditions set to triumph. Surface high pressure, currently over the Central Plains, will shift east through the day tomorrow, sliding into the Great Lakes region by early Thursday. As the high moves through tomorrow, light northerly winds will prevail with plenty of sunshine to start the day before high clouds overspread the area from the east/southeast. Temperatures both tomorrow and Thursday will be below normal in the lower 60s. Unlike some of our previous post-frontal-passage, northwesterly-surface-flow events, the airmass moving in amidst the cold air advection is not as dry with dew points only falling into the mid 30s. This will help to prevent overnight lows from dropping too close to freezing to warrant any frost/freeze headlines. Friday - Sunday: Warming With Some Rain Chances Chances for rain look to return overnight into the morning on Friday. As a developing trough across the Northern US Rockies starts to deepen, southwest flow will begin to take shape over the Upper Midwest late Thursday. With the surface high pressure finally moving off to the east, this will help to mitigate some of the dry air in the lower levels. Deeper mid-level moisture will be pulled into the region and will interact with the passing shortwave trough through the day on Friday. With little to nothing in the way of surface forcing, PoPs remain pretty broad-brushed overall with widespread 30- 60 percents across the region for much of the day. As the upper trough pivots to the north and east into Western Ontario over the weekend, lingering shortwave energy and deep moisture will allow for continued low rain chances, even though forcing overall looks much more nebulous than Friday. Given the uncertainty in the location of best forcing, will continue with the blended guidance that generally caps PoPs at 25 percent after Saturday morning. Early Next Week: Much Warmer Temperatures from Friday onwards will be on an upward trend but should peak early next week as a fairly significant upper ridge builds across the Central CONUS in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. A dome of anomalously warm 850 mb temperatures (5- 15 degrees C above normal) over the Northern Plains will start to seep eastward into the Upper Midwest by Monday and continue into mid- next week. Combined with warm air advection from southerly surface flow, temperatures will be well above normal by Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s. This significant warm up is expected to continue through at least mid-week. .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR expected through the 20.06Z TAF period. A VFR stratus deck will linger in central Wisconsin through the morning hours, potentially grazing KLSE TAF site with FEW. Light winds gradually turn clockwise through the period. Next widespread aviation impacts expected Friday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barendse AVIATION...JAR  670 FXUS65 KVEF 200508 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1008 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A warming trend will result in above normal temperatures for the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. * Much uncertainty exists into next week as a series of Western U.S. storm systems interact with one another. && .DISCUSSION... Another day of unseasonably mild temperatures is on deck in the wake of Sunday's powerful storm system and cold front. Lingering north/northwest flow will continue to promote breezy conditions on area lakes, especially across the Colorado River Valley the remainder of today and again tomorrow. This may promote choppy conditions for boaters. Winds should gradually improve from Thursday into the weekend. Elsewhere, the main concern will be rising temperatures from the latter half of the week into the weekend. Temperatures should climb to near normal by tomorrow, then increase to around 5-10 degrees above normal from Thursday through the upcoming holiday weekend. This will result in several days of Moderate Heat Risk namely across Death Valley and the Colorado River Valley region. While this is not the highest category of Heat Risk, it still represents a threat, especially for those not acclimated to desert weather conditions, and with the abundance of outdoor recreation expected over the coming weekend. Folks are urged to follow heat safety recommendations if planning on being outdoors this weekend. As we enter next week, ensembles paint a very uncertain picture as to exactly how the upper air pattern will evolve. There is relatively high confidence in the presence of an upper trough somewhere across the Pacific Northwest and a weaker upper low off the California Coast. However, there remains considerable disagreement on the exact placement and intensity of these features, which is very relevant on how they may interact with one another and impact local weather. While confidence is moderate in the continuation of warm to hot conditions, there is also a low probability of increasing winds and potentially some precipitation, mainly over the higher terrain. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Northeasterly winds will become northwesterly overnight, dropping to around 5-10KT, before veering to the northeast again by late Tuesday morning. Winds thereafter will remain around 8KT or less, gradually veering to the southeast through the afternoon and becoming variable after sunset. VFR conditions will continue with a few high clouds around 25kft expected to move into the area Tuesday evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds areawide will drop to around 5-10KT through the night with gusty northerly winds returning by mid-morning at the Colorado River terminals. Gusts will peak at around 25KT through mid-afternoon. Elsewhere, winds will generally remain under 10KT. VFR conditions prevail areawide, with bands of high clouds around 25kft across southern areas this evening, and increasing mid-level and high clouds from the north late in the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Austin AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  941 FXUS63 KFSD 200510 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1210 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and freeze conditions are expected tonight into early Wednesday morning across the area - take precautions to protect sensitive vegetation. Frost/Freeze headlines go into effect late tonight. - Scattered showers will return Wednesday afternoon mainly west of the James River Valley with light accumulations expected. - Cooler conditions continue this week. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Severe weather not expected. However, some ensembles guidance suggests up to a 10 to 30 percent chance for a half an inch of rain during this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The forecast remains on track with the main the focus being on the frost/freeze potential tonight. With a surface high continuing to progress through the northern plains, we're already starting to see lighter winds take hold across the area this evening. This combined with rapidly cooling temperatures and a smaller dew point depression overnight will likely lead to frost/freeze conditions especially in our northwestern zones. With this in mind, we're still on track for scattered areas of frost with patchy areas of widespread freeze mainly along the Highway-14 corridor so make sure to cover/bring in any sensitive vegetation! Otherwise, a chilly start is ahead as most areas will wake up to temperatures in the low to mid 30s to start Wednesday. However, these conditions won't stay for long as southerly/southeasterly winds help temperatures improve to the 60s for the day. Lastly, can't completely rule out a few scattered showers mainly west of the James River Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Nonetheless, any accumulations would be light at best. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cool high pressure settles into the area tonight and will bring a very good chance for temperatures tall to or below 35 for most of the area with temperatures at or below freezing possible north of I- 90. Thus a freeze warning is in place for highway 14 and nearby locations in SD with a frost advisory for the remainder of the area. Isolated pockets of fog will be possible early Wednesday morning but at this time it does not appear as though it will become more widespread. A weak wave will move through the area on Wednesday which could bring a few sprinkles but overall should mainly be an increase in mid level clouds. Otherwise slightly more mild temperatures are expected as southerly flow develops and brings highs back into the 60s for most locations. Another weak wave moves across NE on Thursday and could bring some light showers to the Missouri River corridor into northwest IA. Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture with the system is very limited. A bit stronger and more negatively tilted system will swing through on Friday bringing the next best chance for rainfall. Instability very minor with CAPE values generally 500 J/kg or less. The model soundings do indicate the potential for some efficient rainfall however so maybe some half inch or so amounts will be possible. The latest ensemble output indicating about a 10 to 30 percent chance for more than a half an inch and the latest Nam is indicating a couple of areas with more than a half an inch. Long story short, only minor impacts expected with no severe weather. As this system moves northeast and out of the area a few lingering showers will be possible on Saturday, but warmer temperatures will begin to work into the region. Sunday through the middle of next week will see troughiness to the west and ridging to the east, leaving the area in warmer southerly flow. While there is very little agreement, there should be a couple of weaker waves that could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but for now confidence is too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise highs should be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Mostly clear conditions will likely persist throughout the first half of the day before clouds cover increases for the south with our next wave. Besides a few scattered showers mainly west of the James River Valley, most areas should remain dry. Otherwise, light and variable winds will become more southerly with the breeziest conditions west of I-29. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ050-054>071. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ038>040-052-053. MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ071-072-080-081- 089-090-097-098. IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ001>003-012>014- 020>022-031-032. NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...05 DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...05  982 FXUS63 KLMK 200510 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 110 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered storms this afternoon followed by a more prominent line of storms this evening will bring heavy downpours and severe potential for severe wind gusts and small hail. Southern IN counties and KY counties that border the Ohio have the best potential. * There is flooding potential for the storms that move through tonight, especially in our southern IN counties. * Another surge of moisture moves in by Wednesday morning, keeping clouds and rain for everyone and scattered storms for eastern locations by the afternoon. * Busy weather pattern sets up Wednesday through the remainder of the week, with widespread moderate rainfall expected Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 905 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 With the loss of daytime heating much of the afternoon activity has either moved our or dissipated. A few more isolated to scattered areas of showers and storms are likely to develop before a second wave of activity is expected late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Sfc boundary will continue to approach from the northwest as activity currently over Arkansas along with a midlevel shortwave will surge into the area with additional shower and thunderstorms. Severe threat with this activity appears low but our attention turns to flooding concern, especially acrosss southern IN where they are saturated from last night's event. Only adjustments in the grid was to account for this slight lull in activity before the next wave begins late tonight and tomorrow morning. The rest of the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently, temperatures are warm in the mid to upper 80s with mixed cloud cover area wide. A few communities have already seen rain today from two axis of showers and storms trying to form in our western and eastern counties. The severe threat for strong to severe gusty winds aren't expected from these ongoing storms, at least not until later this evening from an approaching line of storms from the northwest. However, what is popping up on radar still has the potential for some small hail stones and gusty winds before the main event arrives. The synoptic setup features troughing in the Plains with continued ridging in the east. The overall weather pattern though will be changing as early as tonight as a trailing cold front from a surface low up in southern Canada will move across the Ohio Valley this evening through Wednesday afternoon. This front is very slow, and will help initiate a line of storms across the Midwest that will move into our CWA this evening. This more prominent line of storms, preceded by pop up storms ahead of the main line, will move in from the northwest well ahead of the cold front. There is plenty of SBCAPE for this line to tap into however as they approach and develop near our CWA, the best shear will move north into the Great Lakes and Southern Canada. Once evening sits in as the storms move in, this means they will slowly be weakening as they trek across our counties. Despite this, multi- cell clusters forming into bowing line segments are possible bringing severe to strong gusty winds and small hail if some of the storms could grow tall enough. With CAPE values ranging 2500 - 3000 J/kg or higher this afternoon in southern IN and western KY, hail can't be ruled out. The highest severe threat is in southern IN and into KY counties bordering the Ohio. Additionally, PWAT values are running high ranging 1.5-2", favored in southern IN thanks to a surge of moisture from the SW. Dewpoints will be running high, meaning there is potential for additional flooding this afternoon/evening in the same areas that were hit hard last night, namely southern IN. As a result, a flood watch has been issued for all our southern Indiana counties including Trimble County as well. Our western KY counties are under the same SW plume of moisture too and will be monitored for flooding potential. Should more rain trend to fall in this area, the flood watch may need to be expanded. Rainfall totals are greatest in southern IN, western KY counties, and counties along the Ohio have a 70-80% chance of receiving ranging around 0.5 - 1", with localized areas of 2+" according to HREF LPMM data in training storms. Elsewhere in central/southern KY including cities like Lexington, rainfall totals will generally by around 0.25-0.5" or lower by early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will cool this evening into the 60s and 70s with weak winds and lowering cloud heights. Rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue tonight with spotty coverage until a weak developing low pushes up from Arkansas Wednesday morning following along our slow-moving cold front. This will keep a steady supply of moisture for everyone Wednesday morning. A few weak embedded storms and rumbles of thunder are possible then, especially in our far southeastern counties that may partially clear. Later in the afternoon with partial clearing, continued WAA in the east, and CAPE values nearing 1000+ J/kg, some gusty winds may be possible with a few of these storms, though we are not expecting severe weather with Wednesday's convection at this time. This may build up enough instability for a few storms to produce more lightning . As the developing surface low slowly moves east, so will any rain showers and weak storms exit to the east. Highs on Wednesday will vary generally northwest to southeast tomorrow as clouds and the cold front slowly marches eastward. Along and north of the Ohio, highs will be in the low to mid 70s with upper 70s to low 80s in our southeast border counties. Rain showers and storms end Wednesday night with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Thursday's weather seems a little drier compared to Wednesday as the cold front should clear or nearly clear our southern communities by morning. Since this front is stalling so close by, continued rain showers with low PoPs have been continued for our far southern areas, though rain totals look to remain low. Cloud cover remains throughout the day though, limiting our warming Thursday behind the front with highs in the low to upper 70s in a few places. By Friday, a trough exiting on the leeward side of the Rockies in the Mid-Plains will swing our front back north as a warm front with a returning surge of moisture from the southwest. EFI tables suggest a moderately high EFI values for QPF, meaning this incoming surge of moisture could produce a good amount of rain for drought stricken areas across all of the CWA. 25th and 75th percentile rainfall totals range from near 0.5" to 1" of rain during the day on Friday. Timing of this rainfall and when it ends is a little uncertain still, as it appears once Friday's trough clears, there is not much synoptic forcing to sweep the front out of the area. As a result, rain chances could continue into Saturday, further alluded to by moderately high EFI values for QPF Saturday. There is still high uncertainty with rain chances later in the weekend though as LREF clustering analysis shows high spread in the rainfall totals. Should another stalled out front form over KY, more rain is likely, but if the stalled out front moves well to our south, Sunday and early next week will begin dry. Temperature trends this weekend remain warm in the upper 70s to low 80s for highs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 For the remainder of the overnight period, conditions will start off as VFR at the terminals with ceilings gradually lowering toward dawn. Scattered convection will be possible, mainly west of a line from BWG to HNB. Surface cold front will push through the region after dawn which will allow winds to shift to the northwest. As we move into the late morning hours, an upper level perturbation will move northeast along the sagging front which will kick off additional showers/storms, mainly east of a line from BWG to LEX. Cigs will likely drop into the IFR range with MVFR vsbys due to rain/storms. Convective activity will push off to the east toward the end of the period with IFR cigs remaining in place. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ032. IN...Flood Watch through this afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. && $$ UPDATE.......BTN SHORT TERM...BKF LONG TERM....BKF AVIATION.....MJ  039 FXUS64 KLZK 200511 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1211 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 -Line of showers/thunderstorms to move southeast through the state today into this evening -Threat for seeing severe weather with this line of thunderstorms will be limited by instability...though some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds will be primary threat -Locally heavy rainfall may lead to an isolated flash flood threat today -Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 All quiet across AR so far early this Tue morning...with some breezy SRLY winds noted. Temps remain warm in the 70s for most areas...with dewpts also in the 60s and 70s. A line of TSRA is ongoing across NRN OK into SERN KS and WRN MO...slowly moving SE over time. This line of convention will be the primary wx story through this Tue afternoon/evening. Expect this line of convection to drop SE into the state sometime near sunrise...eventually dropping SE through the state by late this afternoon/early evening. The overall threat for SVR convection with this line as it moves SE will be limited by instability...which forecast instability is generally lacking. SHR is also limited during the daylight hrs...with the highest 0-3 km SRH this morning just ahead of the line over NWRN sections. While this doesn't mean organized SVR Wx won't happen...just means the potential will be limited...and likely isolated in nature. If SVR convection were to develop...damaging winds look to be the primary threat...with some marginally SVR hail possible also. The overall tornado threat looks to remain low...and may be limited to far NWRN sections during the morning hrs when the SRH is best. However...this is also when CIN will also be elevated...which should help keep that tornado threat low. Some locally heavy rainfall may be seen as this line of convection drops slowly SE over time. While most of this rainfall will be welcome given the ongoing drought conditions...there could be a few isolated spots see enough rainfall that could create an isolated flash flood threat. Beyond this evening...chances for precip do decrease overnight into Wed morning. However...an unsettled pattern will continue as SW flow aloft will remain SW over the region into early next week. Upper waves will pass over the state...which will create some forcing for convection generally each day through the week and through the weekend. While the threat for organized SVR Wx looks low at this time...late May climatology suggest some SVR threat may be possible each day. When...where...and what SVR threat may exist will depend on day to day specifics regarding the stability and SHR. As a result...the threat should remain uncertain for now. The threat for seeing heavy rainfall for the next 4-7 days may increase given multiple rounds of rainfall possible...but ongoing drought conditions and exact placement of heaviest rainfall through the next week keep the threat for flash flooding uncertain at this time as well. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Generally poor flight conditions expected through the period. Sfc winds will remain variable across the state at generally less than 10 kts. Uncertainty remains regarding coverage of RA/TS activity through the period. Lowest cigs/vsby expected through 14z this morning. Some sites could see VFR conditions by 21/00z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 74 60 74 64 / 40 30 50 90 Camden AR 82 65 79 65 / 40 50 80 90 Harrison AR 70 58 72 61 / 30 30 50 90 Hot Springs AR 80 63 75 64 / 30 30 70 90 Little Rock AR 78 62 75 64 / 30 30 70 90 Monticello AR 82 66 80 67 / 50 40 80 90 Mount Ida AR 79 64 74 65 / 30 40 70 90 Mountain Home AR 70 58 73 61 / 40 20 40 90 Newport AR 76 61 77 63 / 50 30 60 90 Pine Bluff AR 81 64 78 65 / 40 30 80 90 Russellville AR 77 62 75 63 / 30 30 60 90 Searcy AR 77 60 76 62 / 50 30 60 90 Stuttgart AR 79 64 77 66 / 50 30 70 90 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...67  889 FXUS66 KPDT 200510 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1010 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers today and Wednesday, mainly over the mountains - Breezy to locally windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps today - Warming through the week && .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday, warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions are forecast region-wide as an upper-level ridge of high pressure will likely (95 percent confidence) build into the region from the Pacific and dominate the weather. A couple weak shortwaves coupled with modest diurnally induced instability (surface-based CAPE of a up to a couple hundred J/kg from forecast soundings) may facilitate some isolated showers, mainly over the mountains through Thursday, but PoPs are low (15 percent or less). Breezy to locally windy westerly winds are forecast through the Cascade gaps today, but not anticipating a need for any wind headlines. Late Wednesday through Thursday, a reversal to mostly light easterly to northeasterly (offshore) winds is forecast as a shortwave trough digs south across the northern Plains and Rockies, just clipping the edge of our forecast area. Considerable uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern is present in ensemble solutions by the weekend and early next week, with the majority of the variance in solutions explained by timing and magnitude differences regarding the arrival of a trough or closed low from the Pacific. Ensemble trends have been towards a closed low for the Pacific Northwest sometime between Monday and Tuesday, but run-to-run and ensemble-to-ensemble differences are still quite significant and forecast confidence is lower than average. Ensemble clustering tools did not run today, so can't provide any more details about scenarios at this time. The NBM has westerly winds returning to the region by late Friday, persisting through the weekend and into early next week. There are low chances (10-40 percent) of reaching advisory- level winds Saturday and Sunday through wind-prone areas of the lower elevations, primarily the eastern Columbia River Gorge, north-central Oregon, the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Kittitas Valley. By Monday, chances increase to 20-60 percent across the same areas. Of course, the magnitude of winds will be tied to the synoptic pattern, and given the uncertainty (see paragraph above), can't really talk about much confidence in forecast details yet. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Breezy winds continue at sites DLS/PDT/PSC for the next couple hours tonight, with light and diurnally driven winds developing after 07-08Z. Otherwise, light winds at all other sites through the period. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 46 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 50 73 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 49 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 47 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 48 76 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 43 73 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 37 73 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 40 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 39 73 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 50 77 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...82  096 FXUS62 KTAE 200512 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 112 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend. Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95 degree range. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. Coverage will then increase over this weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger storms. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery currently shows two different maxima of moisture. The first maximum, characterized by PW values of 1.5 to 1.6 inches, is located along the U.S. 19 corridor from Perry FL down to the Suwannee. The second maximum, with PWs of 1.4-1.5 inches, is located west of the U.S. 231 corridor in FL and AL. These are the areas that will be favored for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon and this evening. On Wednesday, drier mid-level air which water vapor imagery highlights east of the First Coast will migrate westward, nearly shutting down convection along the Nature Coast seabreeze. In contrast, the Emerald Coast seabreeze over the Panhandle will have even more moisture to play with. PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will support scattered PM thunderstorms, with southeast steering flow then taking storms northwestward into the Alabama Wiregrass. Given pockets of mid-level dry air, a favorable downdraft environment will support briefly strong convective gusts of 40-50 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Through Friday, the 500 mb pattern will feature a fairly sharp ridge axis extending from the SW Gulf to the NE Gulf, acting as a suppressor to PM seabreeze thunderstorm development. PM storms will be isolated at most. This weekend, the upper ridge axis will move east across the FL Peninsula and then east of FL early next week. In response, weak southerly to southwesterly mid- level flow will develop across our region, acting as less of a suppressor to convection. 1000-700 mb layer southeast flow will become better defined this weekend, bringing a more reliable feed of deeper moisture from the vicinity of the Greater Antilles. By next Monday and Tuesday, GEFS ensemble members show the most likely range of PWs in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range areawide. PoPs will respond with an initial jump on Saturday, then a slower climb in rain chances from Sunday through next Tuesday. This is starting to look more classically like the start of summer rainy season. Otherwise, the proximity of upper ridging through this weekend will support afternoon temperature running 1-4 degrees above normal. Inland highs will commonly reach the 90-95 degree range, with heat index values in the 95-100 range. We have already seen minor heat-related impacts over the last couple of weeks. Now we will start to see Moderate heat-related impacts, as highlighted in NWS Heat Risk. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of tonight. Patchy fog and lowered (IFR) cigs are possible at ECP and DHN around daybreak. Later in the afternoon, the same terminals will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the evening. Erratic winds and frequent lightning will be the main concerns. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for our remaining terminals. && .MARINE... Issuedat 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A high pressure center will persist near Bermuda through this weekend, with a broad ridge extending west to the Georgia coast. Gentle easterly breezes over the northeast Gulf will become southeasterly on Thursday then continue through this weekend, interrupted each afternoon by the nearshore seabreeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The main fire weather concern over the next 7 days will be gusty and erratic winds near afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Through Friday, storms will be isolated, favoring the Nature Coast seabreeze and the Emerald Coast seabreeze. Thunderstorm coverage will increase this weekend as the air mass moistens a little more, becoming scattered and persisting through early next week. Otherwise, a seasonably hot air mass will persist, with afternoon temperatures will running 1-4 degrees above normal. Areas of fog are expected on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, mainly west of U.S. 231 through the Panhandle and Lower Alabama. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Heavy downpours beneath the core of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may lead to localized and short-lived nuisance flooding in urban or poor drainage areas, mainly from Saturday onward as thunderstorm coverage increases and the air mass moistens further. Larger scale flooding and river flooding are not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 71 93 71 / 20 0 10 0 Panama City 87 71 87 72 / 40 0 0 0 Dothan 90 69 90 68 / 40 20 20 0 Albany 91 69 92 71 / 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 91 69 93 71 / 10 0 10 0 Cross City 93 70 94 72 / 10 0 20 0 Apalachicola 83 72 85 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haner LONG TERM....Haner AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Haner  111 FXUS63 KPAH 200512 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1212 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Quad State over the next 24 hours. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern. - A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tomorrow morning for portions of the region. Swaths of 1 to 2" are anticipated, along with the potential for localized amounts in excess of 3". Adjustments to the watch location may be needed with time. - After a relative lull in rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday, an unsettled pattern is shaping up Friday through the holiday weekend and potentially beyond. There is a high probability (80-95% chance) of most of the region observing at least 2" of rain through next Tuesday, with even some potential at amounts in excess of 4" (20-40% chance). - Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees below normal tomorrow and Thursday (low to mid 70s). While some moderation is expected through the holiday weekend (upper 70s to lower 80s), we will still average slightly below normal through much of the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is draped from the Great Lakes southwestward across IL/MO and into eastern OK early this afternoon. South-southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary has led to an influx of low level moisture into our region with dewpoints into the lower 70s. The morning complex across Missouri fizzled out and has left behind quite a bit of clearing east of the Mississippi River. Some isolated convection has already popped up from the MO bootheel into western KY. Additional activity should continue to fire up through the afternoon aided by upwards of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep layer shear isn't very impressive though, struggling to reach even 25-30 kts of 0-6 km shear. Mid level lapse rates are generally 6C or below as well. However, low level lapse rates are rather steep combined with ample low level moisture that likely will be enough to support at least pulse severe storms this afternoon. Damaging winds appear to be the greatest concern, but can't rule out some hail with a few of the stronger cores. Majority of our region (except southern two tiers of counties) remain in a slight risk from SPC. A disturbance aloft will pivot across the lower Ohio Valley tonight which should provide additional forcing as the front makes passage to support more widespread showers and storms. There is some concern for training convection that may lead to swaths of heavy rainfall in excess of 2", and localized upwards of 3". Placement amongst the CAMs is varied, with some suggesting heaviest amounts further south across more of west KY. In coordination with neighboring offices, have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for portions of our region. For now have confined it to areas that received 1-2", localized 3", over the past 24 hours as these areas are more susceptible to additional heavy rain. FFG is generally only 1.5" per hour in the watch area. Will monitor trends though as adjustments to the watch are possible, with southward expansion seeming to be the most likely. Surface high pressure across the Great Lakes will filter in drier air into our region Wednesday night into Thursday as the frontal boundary sinks south of our cwa. Can't rule out some lingering activity in our south during this time though. Another shortwave across the Southern Plains will induce a surface low to develop and push the front back north into our area Thursday night into Friday. This will lead to additional waves of showers and storms spreading across the region. The overall pattern through the holiday weekend looks quite unsettled with daily chances continuing. Upper flow continues to be southwesterly helping to usher in ample low level moisture into our area. Temperatures will be held in check thanks to the clouds and precip around, but humidity levels will remain high as dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Guidance suggests the wet pattern looks to continue into next week as additional disturbances move through. LREF has an 80-95% chance at receiving at least 2" through next Tuesday, with a 25-40% chance at 4". The ECMWF and GFS both have an expensive area of 5+ inches over the next 9 days. There is a chance they are overdone a bit, and when in drought it's hard to get out, but the trends certainly are in favor of some beneficial rains through the end of the month. Just hopefully we don't get too much too quick, which is a distinct possibility, which could result in increasing flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight into the morning, then more showers/rain/drizzle will be possible, especially at the Kentucky sites through the day. The cold front will be slow to move overnight, but should eventually reach all sites by 12Z. IFR ceilings are expected at all sites by morning and LIFR conditions will be possible through the day. The precipitation should be done by 00z in most locales, but ceilings will struggle to improve. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ILZ087-091. MO...None. IN...Flood Watch through this afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ014-018. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...DRS  180 FXUS63 KOAX 200515 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1215 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather continues with the potential for morning frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday. - Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday continuing on/off through Friday. - Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure was building in late this evening with clouds slowly, but surely starting to clear out of the area. Winds will also become quite light as the high passes over, setting up what looks to be a chilly night. Latest guidance suggests fairly widespread 30s, with portions of northeast NE and west-central IA dipping into the lower to mid 30s. Expect frost development in much of this area with potential for a few spots getting below freezing. A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM. The surface high will push to our east through the day on Wednesday as some weak shortwave energy currently over the Desert Southwest ejects eastward toward the area. This will lead to increasing cloud cover and perhaps a few sprinkles or showers in portions of northeast NE, but they likely won't amount to much more than a few hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, temperatures remain on the cooler side, with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Another bit of shortwave energy will slide through southern portions of the forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance is in better agreement that we see some showers and perhaps an isolated storm with this, mainly near and south of I-80 (30-50% chance). Meanwhile, a trough will be digging into the western CONUS out of Canada and eventually push east into the forecast area late Thursday night into Friday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that we'll see widespread rainfall with this system on Friday (60-80% chance), but still some differences on exact track and resulting rainfall amounts. Consensus currently suggests most places see a few tenths at most. Warmer, drier air will move in behind this system as it departs on Saturday, allowing temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. We'll warm further on Sunday and Monday as the trough axis pushes to our northeast and ridging starts to build in. Expect upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday followed by widespread 80s Monday into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with lingering 3500-5000 ft clouds dissipating this evening. Additional 3500 ft clouds look to develop Wednesday morning and last through the afternoon. Winds will start northerly and gradually turn clockwise, settling at northeasterly at OMA and LNK, and southeasterly at OFK with speeds generally remaining under 10 kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044. IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...CA  262 FXUS61 KALY 200516 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 116 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Convective outlook has been adjusted slightly and the slight risk remove from our area for today, as the best forcing and organized storms may remain west of the region. Still, a threat for isolated damaging winds continue for today for northern areas. POPs have lowered somewhat for tomorrow along the front as precip should be more scattered. Many areas may stay dry and the threat for just isolated strong-to-severe storms looks to be for far southern areas, and may be a greater threat south/southwest of the region. Models continue to disagree on the handling of precip for this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected for southern parts of the region on Wednesday. There is a marginal risk for storms to be severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. 2) A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected Thursday into Friday with the next chance for a widespread rainfall over the weekend, although the exact timing, duration and amount of rainfall is still uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cooler and drier air will be arriving with a cold front for Wednesday. While northern areas will see relief early in the day with steady/falling temps for the day, far southern areas will be ahead of the front for much of the day. Highs will be close 90 in the mid Hudson Valley once again with moderate Heat Risk. Cooler and drier will arrive for the entire area for Wednesday night. Our region is on the northern fringe of a large upper level ridge centered over the eastern seaboard. Upper level shortwave is well west of the area over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front remains well upstream of the region over the Great Lakes, although a pre-frontal surface trough is located over the area. SPC mesoanalysis shows 0-6 km bulk shear is around 30 kts, with the highest values across northern parts of the area. Meanwhile, a warm and humid airmass (surface temps approaching 90 in many areas) is allowing for instability, with MLCAPE mainly in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with the best values to the south. With the warm temps aloft, mid level lapse rates are rather poor, generally under 6 deg C/km. Low level lapse rates are strong, however, due to the strong solar heating today. Overall, coverage of storms this afternoon into this evening looks isolated to scattered. Based off the latest CAMs, activity may develop over the next few hours across northern areas and slide eastward, although it may not get too organized across our area with the better forcing still well off to the west. There is enough overlap of shear/instability for a few storms to be severe and damaging winds would be the main threats due to the decent shear and strong low level lapse rates. While a few reports of damaging winds can't be ruled out, the limited forcing and poor mid level lapse rates will likely keep a large severe outbreak from occurring. On Wednesday, some additional storms will be possible across far southern areas in the afternoon hours, as the main cold front settles southward. The rest of the area will be behind the boundary, but Dutchess and Litchfield Counties could see a few strong storms with another day of warm and humid weather expected ahead of the front. SPC maintains a marginal risk for far southern parts of our area, although AI/ML guidance suggests that there may be a slightly higher threat further south across PA/NJ or coastal New England. KEY MESSAGE 2... West to northwest flow will take over for the late week. More seasonable temps are expected for Thursday and Friday with valley highs mainly in the 60s. Overnight temps will be in the 40s, with some mid to upper 30s over the highest terrain. Dry and comfortable weather will be in place for all of Thursday and Friday with a partly to mostly clear sky. Unsettled weather is expected for the weekend, although model guidance has been varying regarding the exact timing of precip. A period of steady rainfall is possible thanks to surface low pressure heading towards the Great Lakes and warm advection/ isentropic lift ahead of the warm front. This could occur as early as Saturday, although latest model guidance has been slowing down the timing of this and/or keeping the bulk of it to the south and west. For now, have gone close to the NBM with likely POPs for Saturday, but there is potential for drier weather. While there should be a break at some point (perhaps for Sunday), another round of showers is expected (Sunday night and/or Monday) as the main upper level disturbances tracks across the region. For now, will keep POPs close to chance for Sun/Mon. While some rain is possible, it may not be totally raining entirely these two days, so some dry weather is possible for a portion of the Holiday Weekend. With the clouds and possible precip, temps may be held down somewhat this weekend, with mid to upper 60s, although if some sun does occur, then highs in the 70s are certainly possible. Ultimately, it will depend on the exact timing/track of the precip, which should come into better focus over the next few days. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06z Thursday...As of 1:15 AM EDT, flying conditions are VFR at all terminals. Generally VFR conditions expected through the next several hours, although some brief patchy fog/mist can't be ruled out at GFL through the next few hours. Confidence is rather low, so have not included IFR conditions in the TAF, but IFR vsbys possible if fog develops. Otherwise, increasing mid-level clouds expected towards sunrise ahead of an approaching cold front. This front could result in a few showers developing with brief MVFR vsby reductions this morning, but coverage of showers will be isolated at best. Best chance for a brief shower with MVFR vsby reductions is at POU. Behind the cold front, mid-level clouds scatter out but high clouds remain SCT to BKN through the end of the TAF period with prevailing VFR conditions. Winds will be at around 5 kt or less through the remainder of the overnight period. Will note that LLWS was added for all terminals with 35-40 kt low-level jet overhead through shortly after sunrise. Winds this morning switch to the W/SW at 5-10 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt, strengthening to 10-15 kt from the west with gusts up to 25-30 kt (strongest at ALB/PSF) through the afternoon and evening. Gusts generally diminish after sunset this evening, with winds veering to the NW at 5-10 kt through 06z Thursday. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...35  283 FXUS63 KMQT 200516 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 116 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures through the rest of the work week. Frost is possible the next few nights. - A dry work week is followed up by light rain this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The ~1003 mb low pressure analyzed northeast of Lake Superior this afternoon continues departing to Quebec by tonight, forcing the associated cold front the rest of the way across the UP by this evening. High pressure and dry air building in from the west behind this front set up a quiet pattern for the remainder of the work week as it slides over the Great Lakes region. Precipitation does not return until this weekend as a trough over the Plains pivots northeast over the region. Details around this are murky, but impacts likely will be low as instability is nil and probabilities of exceeding 0.5 inches of rain in 24 hours holds at 10% of less. Drier and warmer weather is progged to return early next week with high pressure possibly returning. This quieter period is captured in the CPC precipitation outlooks with near normal for the 6-10 day and slightly below normal for the 8-14 day. Temps in the 60s to low 70s have been observed ahead of the cold front this afternoon, but this quickly will be replaced by 40s post fropa aside for parts of the south-central that linger in the 50s to low 60s for longer this afternoon/evening. Despite zonal flow developing aloft by Wednesday afternoon, low level CAA into Wednesday yields temps between 5-15F below normal. Lows in the 30s to low 40s tonight will only warm into the 40s to mid 50s for most on Wednesday, save for a few spots reaching low 60s south-central. Temps dip even lower Wednesday night into the upper 20s to upper 30s. While it is still early for growing season, some patchy frost is possible tonight and widespread frost is anticipated Wednesday night. A ridge over the southeast CONUS begins to build late week while a trough deepens over the Rockies. This strengthens southerly flow and WAA increasing temps closer to normal by this weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s to low 50s. Patchy frost is possible again Thursday night, but no headlines are planned yet this week given slow start to growing season. In the wake of the weekend system, a strong mid level ridge looks to build over the Midwest, favoring the warming trend to continue into next week. CPC temperature outlooks both show the UP under ~65-70% chances for above normal temps to close out the month. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 116 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions prevail over the TAF sites through the period, except for up to 50% chances of transient MVFR ceilings at SAW this morning. Expect light winds primarily out of the northwest to north throughout the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Pressure rises and cold air filtering over the lake support west to northwest winds of 20-30 kts into tonight over the east. Winds hold around 20 kts or less this afternoon in the west, remaining below 20 kts after this evening. Winds over the east settle below 20 kts Wednesday morning and likely remain sub-20 kts across the lake through Friday as high pressure persists over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Significant wave heights of 4-6 ft over the east hold through tonight, then settle below 4 ft by Wednesday afternoon and likely remain 4 ft or less the remainder of the forecast period. This light wind pattern may even persist into next week with no significant systems on the horizon this weekend and high pressure favored to return next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...GS MARINE...77  278 FXUS64 KHUN 200516 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1216 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms return tonight. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms then persist each day from Wednesday through early next week. No severe weather is forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop ahead of a trough axis that extends from a surface low over southeastern Canada through northern Indiana into southeast Missouri and eastern Arkansas. Fairly strong forcing aloft at 500 mb is seen along this trough axis. Further east in Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas, the strongest forcing is concentrated around 700 mb with 500 to 1500 J/KG of SBCAPE shown in SPC meso-analysis. Shear is very weak. The main question is how deep the stronger forcing will be and how much instability we will have towards 1 AM into the early morning hours on Wednesday this far east. Most guidance weakens forcing around 700 mb significantly during that period, but strong vorticity develops in several models towards daybreak on Wednesday that pivots from NE Mississippi into NW Alabama. Models hold onto between 300 and 800 J/KG of SBCAPE in NW Alabama. Shear remains weak, but does increase to around 25 knots towards daybreak. Expect the current activity over NW Mississippi to push more to the NNE overall. Though, models do show additional convection moving into NW Alabama maybe as early 4 AM. Confidence is low in the forecast, but given the strength of the forcing around 500 mb by models moving into NW Alabama between 4 AM and 7 AM, thinking that coverage in NW Alabama at least will increase significantly. Though at this time, think this will be general thunderstorm activity. Expect this activity to continue to increase in coverage as it moves east during the day on Wednesday. Guidance develops between 1500 and 2000 J/KG of SBCAPE over the area as the surface front is slow to moves southeast through the area. This will make for a cloudy and rainy day on Wednesday with some areas receiving between 1/4 and 3/4 of an inch of rainfall with some locally higher amounts possible. This will provide a break from the hotter temperatures we have been seeing the last few days. Highs will likely only reach the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With weak shear remaining over the area near the front on Wednesday night and the loss of daytime heating, coverage should drop off significantly to low to medium coverage (20-50%). However, we will remain in a humid airmass, as the front moves north again into Thursday. This will keep overnight lows on the warm side Wednesday night, only dropping into the lower to mid 60s. As the front moves northward again on Thursday, additional shortwaves move along it. Combined with building instability as the front moves back over the area, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop (especially in the afternoon). Shear remains weak in most model output (less than 25 knots). That is a good thing given instability shown by guidance (1500-3000 J/KG). PWATS increase again though, so heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be fairly common. We will need to monitor for minor flash flooding issues Thursday afternoon. Things don't change through Friday, as the front doesn't move much and additional disturbances move along it through the area. This will keep highs Friday afternoon in the lower to mid 80s. There might be a bit stronger shear (0-3 km ~ 30 knots) Friday afternoon along with instability between 1000 and 3000 J/KG, just enough shear to have to worry about strong to marginally severe thunderstorm activity. Some minor flash flooding could occur on Friday as well. Overnight lows Thursday night will push higher into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Southwesterly flow will largely persist aloft through the long term period. In addition, a series of shortwaves looks to ripple across the Southeast during the weekend and into early next week. At the surface, a cold front is slated to slowly make its way towards the Southeast through the weekend, but stall over the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the lower Ohio Valley early next week. This pattern will maintain low-level southerly flow over the region as well the continued advection of moisture up from the Gulf. Therefore, the rainy and summertime-like pattern is expected to continue through at least early next week, with daily chances (50-80%) of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be temperated a bit by the higher rain chances each day; but, highs are forecast to generally reach the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s. Model PWATs generally remain between 1.6-1.8 inches throughout the period, which are over the 90th percentile when compared with Sounding Climatology from Birmingham (~1.6 inches) for May 23rd through 26th. Showers/storms will therefore be efficient rainfall producers, so we'll need to monitor for the increased risk of localized flooding for areas that receive rainfall repeatedly. As for the potential for any severe weather, guidance suggests that bulk shear values may reach around 30 knots periodically this weekend and into early next week. Therefore, there is a non-zero chance of a stronger storm or two, but confidence is low at this point. Regardless, if you have outdoor plans, make sure to stay weather aware, as lightning is dangerous whether or not a storm is severe! In addition, if you encounter any flooded roads, remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the early/mid morning hours, but cloud cover will increase and ceilings will drop to around 4 kft by daybreak. A weak front will move into the Tennessee Valley today, bringing low to medium chances for SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon and evening hours. Confidence in timing is still very low so have handled with a 20-02z timeframe for now. Thereafter, lower clouds will build in and some light fog may develop in the late evening due to moist boundary layer conditions. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...AMP.24  270 FXUS64 KLUB 200516 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1216 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Overcast and some fog returns Wednesday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms arriving late Wednesday morning. - Brief, heavy rainfall will be common with storms Wednesday, with hail up to quarter size possible. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue through this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 01Z upper air analysis depicts a large-scale, positively-tilted trough over the Intermountain West, with an ill-defined vorticity lobe evident on recent water-vapor imagery that was ejecting northeastward over Baja Sur and into northern Mexico. A disheveled and expansive baroclinic leaf is present, as it has been stretched out while rounding the base of the trough is it begins to become absorbed into the right-entrance region to a 250 mb jet streak that was objectively analyzed at 95 kt per the 20/00Z UA charts. Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over the CWA throughout the course of the short-term period, with the right-entrance region to the mid- and high-level jet streaks translating eastward and over W TX by Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale flow has resulted in thunderstorms far to the south of the CWA, with thick anvil debris advecting poleward over the Rolling Plains and eclipsing the Caprock. Low-level clouds have since mixed out on the Caprock, but with northeasterly flow persisting at 850 mb, low stratus remains dammed over the Rolling Plains per METAR data at CDS and VUF. Occasional breaks in the anvil debris field have also revealed the extent of the stratus deck. Fog is forecast to develop across portions of the Rolling Plains, and perhaps the Caprock, Wednesday morning as the lower boundary-layer nears its saturation point during the predawn hours. At the surface, the cold front that crossed through the CWA earlier this morning has stalled across the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau, and bends northwestward into the TX Big Bend and beyond into the southern Rocky Mountains. A lee cyclone was analyzed near the Sierra del Carmen, with WTM data observing the northern periphery of the low; and the quasi-stationary/slow-moving cold front then branches eastward into the Llano Uplift before bending northward towards central N TX. This front is expected to remain anchored across that corridor for the next 24 hours, which will maintain the upslope/easterly flow across the CWA tonight into Wednesday. However, the western periphery of the stalled front will serve as an impetus for the initiation of clusters of showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday morning for portions of the CWA. The vorticity lobe analyzed over Baja Sur will emerge over the TX Big Bend and eastern NM near sunrise Wednesday, with the anomaly becoming stretched and elongated as it ejects over the CWA. This will occur in conjuction with the right-entrance region of the 250 mb jet streak translating over W TX, facilitating a net increase in high-level divergence and subtle geopotential height falls atop the stable, post-frontal airmass. Elevated, fast-moving clusters of showers and storms are forecast to develop by late Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon hours as the PV anomaly ejects over the CWA. The subtle geopotential height falls and backing of deep-layer flow aloft towards the southwest will advect the EML observed by the 20/00Z RAOBs from MAF and MMCU over the CWA, with MUCAPE values increasing to 1,000-1,500 J/kg atop the stable and near-saturated boundary-layer. Modest effective shear magnitudes near 30 kt and somewhat elongated hodographs in the mid/upper-levels will yield the potential for weak, mid-level mesocyclones to develop within the elevated storms; and with parcel trajectories rooted above the stable airmass, hail up to quarter size will be the predominant severe-related hazard with storms Wednesday. Brief, heavy rainfall will be common with storms otherwise, although the quick progression of storms will curtail the potential for flash flooding. The dense overcast will restrict diabatic heating, with highs forecast to struggle to breach 70 degrees across most of the CWA, especially as the upslope flow is maintained through most of the day. Storm chances will wane by the evening, with cool and damp conditions expected overnight into Thursday along with the potential for fog. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Large-scale troughing will persist across the western U.S. Thursday, with a compact, shortwave trough forecast to dig into the Mosquito and Sawatch Ranges. Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over the CWA, albeit a dearth in magnitude as it becomes subgeostrophic between the base of the shortwave trough to the north-northwest of the CWA and the quasi-zonal, subtropical jet streak nosing into the Sierra Madre Occidental. Another small-scale, shortwave trough is forecast to eject into western TX Thursday, with the boundary-layer becoming weakly capped as low-level stratus erodes. Temperatures are forecast to be 5-7 degrees warmer than Wednesday, but with minimal MLCINH forecast as warmer theta-e air advects into the CWA as a weak, low-level jet near 25 kt backs towards the southeast by late Thursday afternoon, clusters of storms are forecast to develop and move towards the east-northeast across the CWA Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated instances of marginally-severe hail will be possible given a slight uptick in effective shear magnitudes to around 35 kt amidst the maintained EML. NBM PoPs have been adjusted accordingly to reflect the best timing. Isolated storm chances are forecast to continue for portions of the Rolling Plains by Friday, with area-wide chances into the weekend. The large-scale troughing is forecast to attenuate and split into lower-amplitude shortwave troughs, with the southern-stream shortwave trough arriving by this weekend. Warmer temperatures will follow, with the best storm chances appearing to be east of the I-27 corridor Friday and into the weekend. Some storms may be strong-to-severe, but mesoscale details remain nebulous with this prognostication. Additional storm chances may arrive early next week, but predictability is limited. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR CIGs should give way to MVFR by 08Z and possibly IFR by 12Z. IFR CIGs will likely be accompanied by a reduction in VIS. VIS may be reduced to MVFR or lower, but confidence is not high at the moment. IFR CIGs are expected to give way to MVFR after 15Z and remain MVFR through the rest of the TAF cycle. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms near PVW and LBB after 18Z through 00Z with rain dissipating east of these two terminals. Confidence is currently low with precip affecting CDS at this time. While the threat for severe storms is low, some stronger storms could produce hail up to one inch in diameter, wind gusts up to 50 knots, and brief heavy downpours which could temporarily reduce VIS to MVFR or worse. IFR CIGs are likely just beyond the end of this TAF cycle. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...51  335 FXUS63 KIND 200519 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 119 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms possible across southen Central Indiana. Localized flooding is possible. - A Flood Watch is in effect from 3pm today to 2pm Wednesday. - Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Surface analysis this evening shows a cold front across Central Indiana, stretching from near FWA to north of IND to near Vincennes. The front was slowly sagging southward across Central Indiana. Radar trends continue to show scattered convection across southern Indiana, mainly in a decaying state as heating continues to be lost. Aloft, water vapor shows a plume of moisture streaming from eastern TX into the Ohio valley while warm SW flow was in place aloft. GOES19 shows mainly convective debris clouds within that flow streaming across IL and IN. Overnight, the front is expected to continue to sag southward, and flow in the wake of the front will become northeasterly as stronger high pressure begins to build across Indiana from the northern plains. However the steady stream of moisture aloft flowing from the southwest in combination with the lingering front across southern Indiana may result in occasional showers and storms across southern Indiana overnight. Thus will keep a dry forecast in the north and NW where NE winds and dry air is predominate. Pops will remain overnight across the southern parts of the forecast area. Due to the earlier suggested factors, HRRR suggests periodic showers pushing across southern Indiana through the night. Will continue to watch closely overnight for heavy rains that could result in flooding. Ongoing flood watch will remain. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Today and Tonight - Satellite imagery shows cumulus developing as the boundary layer becomes destabilized (IND ACARS shows around 1500 J/Kg MLCAPE). As such, renewed convective activity appears likely again this afternoon. In fact, a few showers have already popped up near Columbus as of 2pm. In terms of hazards, RAP soundings indicate that some mid-level dry air may be present today. ACARS soundings from IND show the dry air and DCAPE values of 1100 J/Kg as of 2pm. This, combined with steep lapse rates and a LLJ around 30-40kt, could allow for downburst and efficient downward momentum transfer. About 25 knots of effective shear may also be enough to allow for loose organization into multicell clusters. Therefore, strong to damaging wind gusts are possible with storms today. The wind threat diminishes after sunset as the column moistens and lapse rates weaken slightly. RAP soundings show the atmosphere becoming more efficient for rainfall production overnight (deep warm cloud layer, saturation to the EL, and moist adiabatic lapse rates). A cold front sagging south across Indiana will interact with an MCV approaching from the southwest, prolonging large-scale lift tonight. Most guidance is on board with showers and thunderstorms continuing on and off through the night. There is a signal for heavy rain within most guidance with pockets of 1 to 3 inches across the southern half of our area. QPF coverage in guidance isn't as widespread as yesterday, but these pockets tend to line up where the heaviest rain fell. Additional flooding may be possible tonight and a Flood Watch has been issued for the southern half of our CWA. Wednesday through Monday - Once the front has pushed south of the area, it will stall out a bit, though high pressure passing through the Great Lakes in its wake will keep it suppressed to the south and allow for both a brief cooldown and a break in precip chances from late Wednesday into Thursday evening. Rain chances return late week into early next week as a large upper level low swings through the northern tier of the country and pulls a warmer and moist airmass back into the area, though chances with the exception of Friday will be low for the time being given significant model inconsistencies and resulting uncertainty. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 119 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Impacts: - Showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily from HUF/IND southeastward - Ceilings likely to deteriorate to MVFR, with IFR at BMG Discussion: A cold front has temporarily stalled over the area and is producing additional showers and a few thunderstorms across the southeastern half of the area tonight. This will continue much of the overnight and additional showers will be possible during the day on Wednesday. Trapped low level moisture along and north of the boundary as it slowly pushes southward will cause ceilings to deteriorate overnight, falling to MVFR at least briefly at all sites later this morning. BMG will likely drop into IFR at least briefly, but MVFR may predominate at all sites except LAF much of the period. Winds will generally be north/northwesterly early, but gradually become northerly then northeasterly with time. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this afternoon for INZ052>055-060>064- 067>072. && $$ UPDATE...Puma AVIATION...Nield DISCUSSION...Nield/Eckhoff  405 FXUS61 KBGM 200520 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 120 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The threat for severe thunderstorms for today continues to diminish. That being said, still cannot rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm late later this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm and humid conditions continues this evening, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible through about midnight. 2) Following the passage of a cold front tonight and Wednesday morning, much cooler temperatures will return for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 3) Memorial Day weekend continues to look showery and cool, with perhaps slightly drier conditions and warmer temperatures by Memorial Day itself. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cloud cover from this morning has lingered into this afternoon. As a result, instability is largely lacking. A few isolated showers have developed, but due to this limited instability and lack of forcing, these have not been able to develop into thunderstorms up to this point (as of 2:15PM). A few pulse thunderstorms still could develop at any point this afternoon or early evening, but the overall threat for severe thunderstorms continues to diminish. A more organized line of showers and thunderstorms will likely track eastward through Western NY this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of those thunderstorms could be strong to severe, but indications point to this line dissipating as it approaches Central NY and Northeast PA with the loss of daytime heating and the lack of elevated instability to maintain convection overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... As a cold front pushes eastward through the area on Wednesday, much cooler and drier air will filter in behind it. Dew points will fall from the lower 60s around dawn to the 40s for most of the area by the late afternoon. Temperatures will also gradually drop, or remain steady in the 60s; at least for Central NY. Farther to the south and east (Wyoming Valley-Poconos- Catskills), warmer air may linger longer as the cold front likely doesn't pass through those areas until the afternoon on Wednesday. This also means that some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for those areas in the afternoon, but right now it appears any threat for severe thunderstorms should be east of the area/closer to the coast. Following the passage of the cold front, colder air will remain in place through the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the 60s and overnight lows mainly in the 40s. KEY MESSAGE 3... Memorial Day weekend unfortunately continues to look unsettled with showers and cool weather, as moisture advects into the region from the south and an upper level low moving in from the west. The most widespread showers will be on Saturday, which will also be the coolest day with highs only in the 50s for most of the area. Scattered showers will likely linger through at least Sunday. Depending on how quickly the above mentioned upper level low exits the area to the east, Monday/Memorial Day could either be another day of scattered showers, or perhaps a mainly dry day. Either way, Memorial Day should feature a return to near-normal temperatures with highs mainly in the 70s, after several below normal days. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The cold front is slowly progressing towards the area, and confidence remains low for any showers or thunderstorms to hold together long enough to reach the majority of terminals. SYR and ELM have the best chance if the storms do make it and an amendment will be made if so. CIGs fall to MVFR across CNY behind the front early this morning, with a few isolated rain showers or drizzle. ITH and RME have the best shot of rain showers with the help of the terrain but rain cant be ruled out at any of the other CNY terminals. The front does not reach AVP until late morning into the early afternoon hours. There will be some thunderstorms to form along the front in the late morning into early afternoon for AVP, so the PROB30 was kept from the previous forecast. Dry air mixes down across CNY so terminals in NY will trend towards VFR by the 16Z to 19Z timeframe. Outlook: Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Sunday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJG/MJM AVIATION...KL  512 FXUS64 KSJT 200522 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1222 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon, with some being severe. Expect these storms to continue developing and expanding in coverage through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Most CAMs eventually expand this convection into a somewhat organized MCS, and move it south into south Texas later tonight. The main concerns will continue to be large hail and damaging winds. In addition, precipitable water values are between 1 and 1.5 inches, and with the generally slow movement of these storms, flash flooding will also be a concern. For Wednesday, CAMs disagree with each other on the coverage and intensity of possible convection, but with a boundary in the area, the moisture remaining in place, and continued southwest flow with embedded shortwave energy, we will likely have another at least medium (20%-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon as afternoon heating affects the area. We will continue to see at least a Slight Risk for severe storms, mainly for our southern counties Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to 1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding, especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor. Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern 2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thunderstorm complex has moved east, temporarily leaving VFR conditions. However, stratus with MVFR ceilings was moving back into KABI and the rest of the terminals should fall back to MVFR overnight. Ceilings should rise to VFR by early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but isolated thunderstorms may also affect the rest of the terminals. A larger complex of storms will move in late evening from west to east, with MVFR ceilings returning by midnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 63 78 63 / 30 60 70 10 San Angelo 77 62 80 63 / 50 70 40 20 Junction 80 63 80 63 / 50 80 50 20 Brownwood 77 63 77 62 / 30 70 70 20 Sweetwater 75 62 78 63 / 40 60 50 10 Ozona 78 62 81 63 / 70 70 30 30 Brady 77 63 77 63 / 40 70 60 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...04  695 FXUS62 KFFC 200526 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 126 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue through the wee with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Afternoon thunderstorms are possible along and north of the I-85 corridor this afternoon. - Increased rain chances return tomorrow through the weekend, especially across northern and western Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Warm and Dry Today: Another pleasant weather afternoon across north and central Georgia with high temperatures climbing to the upper 80s to low 90s, and some fair weather cumulus clouds. A lingering dry airmass with PWAT values under 1" across the area will prevent the cumulus from having much vertical growth. Rain Chances Return Wednesday: Winds turn out of the southwest tonight into Wednesday, bringing moisture back into the region and leading to a return of rain chances. Skies will start off mostly clear, with cumulus building and becoming widespread during the afternoon as PWAT values climb to around 1.2-1.4" in west/northwest GA. This area will likely see isolated to scattered showers and storms developing during the late afternoon and evening as instability peaks. Elsewhere, instability and moisture will be too low to result in anything more than brief isolated showers. Any storms that develop across northwest GA will be garden-variety due to low shear (<20kts) and meager instability (<1000 J/kg), with brief gusty winds and lightning being the primary threats. High temperatures will again climb to the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Not much change in the extended periods. A weakening cold front will have entered the far northern tier by the time the long term period picks up on Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across north and west Georgia from Wed night with precip spreading further south through the day Thu. As ridging over the Atlantic Coast and west Atlantic continues to flatten, the front will make slow progress southward Thu, eventually stalling north of I-20 amid southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures and dewpoints will start the morning on Thursday in the mid to upper 60s across the area. High temperatures will be slightly cooler across far north Georgia (in the low to mid 80s) behind the front compared to upper 80s elsewhere across north Georgia and low 90s over central Georgia. Hot and humid conditions will support diurnally enhanced convection, with PoPs of 60-80% for North GA, and 20-40% across central GA. The front will become less defined and begin to lift back northward Friday within southwest mid-level flow along the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. This southwesterly flow will intensify as a second ridge approaches from the Great Plains, giving the front an additional push away to the north. While this ridge sets up over the eastern CONUS during the weekend, the aforementioned southwesterly flow will continue to spread ample moisture into the forecast area. Temperatures rising into the 80s and low 90s each day along with ample moisture will lead to scattered to numerous diurnal convection each day through the beginning of next week. Coverage of storms will be greatest during the afternoon and evening. At this time, the deepest moisture and highest PWATs across our area will remain across portions of North and West GA. will keep the most consistent heavy rainfall west of Georgia. Some locations across North GA could see 2 to 3 inch 7 day totals. This will be very welcomed precip to help with our current drought situation. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 117 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR start to the TAFs. Ceilings will become BKN after 14Z with a SCT CU field at 4-5k ft. Between 19-00Z, there is a low end chance for TSRA. Due to low confidence, will keep a PROB30 rather than issue a TEMPO group. Winds will be light and variable at times, but a wind shift is expected this afternoon from the SE to the SW after 14Z //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium to low on TSRA. High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 91 66 87 / 10 50 40 80 Atlanta 69 88 69 87 / 20 60 40 50 Blairsville 63 82 61 78 / 20 80 60 80 Cartersville 65 87 66 87 / 30 80 60 60 Columbus 68 92 69 92 / 20 20 10 10 Gainesville 67 87 66 83 / 20 70 60 80 Macon 68 92 69 92 / 0 20 10 20 Rome 63 86 64 85 / 30 80 70 70 Peachtree City 66 89 67 89 / 20 50 30 40 Vidalia 67 93 70 93 / 0 10 10 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...Vaughn  687 FXUS63 KGRB 200526 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1226 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Wednesday night as lows fall into the low to mid 30s over the Northwoods. - Below normal temperatures continue throughout the week, warming back up during the weekend. - Scattered showers (30 to 60% chance) arrive Friday afternoon, lasting through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 GOES imagery and current obs show the cold front over eastern Wisconsin as of this afternoon, with winds having largely shifted to the northwest in its wake. Shower activity associated with the front has begun to erode as drier air feeds in from high pressure to the northwest. However, isolated showers will remain possible through this evening due to steepening lapse rates within CAA regime, though thunder chances will be little to none as any daytime instability wanes. Rain chances... Next chance (30 to 60%) for scattered showers arrives Friday afternoon in tandem with decent shortwave energy, lasting through much of Saturday. Moisture influx during this time will be modest as we set up under marginal return flow, with PWATs approaching one inch Friday evening. However, most instability looks to remain holed up to our south in proximity to the warm front, resulting in little to no severe weather potential. Furthermore, lack of upper-level dynamics and surface forcing mechanism would suggest very little thunder potential in general. Synoptic flow then flattens out early next week before ridging eventually builds over much of the eastern CONUS, keeping us mostly dry through the middle of next week. Temperatures... Below normal post-FROPA temperatures persist through the weekend, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees in some areas through the end of the work week. As high pressure sits and spins overhead, frost/freeze headlines may be needed at times as lows dip down into the low to mid 30s. Current thinking is that Wednesday night would be the better setup for frost development over the Northwoods due to light winds and windows for clearing. Tonight's frost potential seems more marginal under mostly overcast skies, and would be confined mainly to Vilas county regardless. As such, have opted against a Frost Advisory for tonight. Highs then gradually moderate back to near normal by the end of the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Low-end VFR clouds will remain across the area overnight, with a few MVFR ceiling over far north-central WI. Downsloping northwest winds will eventually help scatter out some of the clouds early Wednesday. Isolated sprinkles will continue overnight, mainly across north-central WI, but will have no impacts to aviation. Additional low-end VFR clouds are expected on Wednesday especially during the morning hours, with a few high-end MVFR ceilings possible in north-central WI. High clouds will also be in the region, especially in the Wednesday afternoon/evening. West/northwest winds will remain under 10 kts late this evening and overnight. Onshore flow near Lake Michigan could switch winds to the east for a time overnight at GRB/MTW. North winds under 10 kts are expected on Wednesday, with a lake breeze shifting winds to the east across eastern WI in the afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Bersch  675 FXUS63 KIWX 200525 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 125 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier today into Thursday with highs only in the 60s. - Next chance for rain and a few storms arrive Friday. - Gradual warming with highs in the 70s with periods of showers and thunderstorms this weekend into the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front currently positioned over Wisconsin and Illinois will swing eastward and through the local forecast area this evening. Ahead of this front, strong to severe storms will become possible this afternoon and evening. The region is well into the warm sector with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moisture combined with daytime heating supports SBCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, especially east of the I-69 corridor where cloud cover has been minimal today. Destabilization is beginning to occur with cumulus development evident on satellite. The best chances for strong to severe storms will be 3-9 PM EDT today. The greatest risk area will be along and south of US-24, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place. Shear is still expected to be weak given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, but it will be better than the past few days at 20 to 30 kts. With weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or line segments. Given DCAPE over 1000 J/kg this afternoon and evening and steep low level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, damaging winds will be the main threat today. Confidence in isolated tornado chances is decreasing due to current low level SRH less than 150 m2/s2, and forecast to decrease today. If one were to develop, the potential is still greatest in NW Ohio, which will have the longest time to heat up and destabilize today as the cold front takes its time moving in from west to east. With PWATs now around 1.5-1.6", even if storm clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr. After the passage of the cold front, the second half of the workweek will be much cooler with highs only in the 60s through Friday. Rain showers will likely be continuing southeast of US-24 on Wednesday morning before drier air moves in. The next chance for rain will then be on Friday afternoon in association with a shortwave coming up from the southwest. We could get a bit of a break on Saturday before a stronger upper trough moves across the region on Sunday. Unsettled weather will also be possible on Memorial Day, especially south of US-30, but model agreement is poor so there is low confidence in forecast specifics. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 114 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions expected through the remainder of this TAF period. A few light sprinkles possible this morning before shortwave ridging pushes into the region. Northerly winds with gusts up to 20 kts possible after 17z Wed. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cobb AVIATION...Andersen  680 FXUS65 KPSR 200525 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1025 PM MST Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A broad scale troughing pattern will persist over the western U.S. through the end of the workweek keeping temperatures overall near normal. - Weak shortwave ridging will build over the Desert Southwest this weekend,allowing temperatures to rise a few degrees above normal, with lower desert highs reaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. - Dry conditions, with no threat of rain, and seasonal afternoon breezes are expected through the next several days. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Latest GOES infrared wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis reveals a broad trough of low pressure extending from the Pacific NW into the Central Plains. Our forecast area still remains at the base of this positively tilted trough with a broad fetch of southwesterly flow currently in place over the forecast area. A plume of Pacific moisture is currently being pulled NE into the Desert Southwest this afternoon which is resulting in abundant high cloud cover. Despite the increased cloudiness, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower deserts, slightly warmer than yesterday, but still around 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Very dry air at the sfc (Td ranging from the single digits to the 20s) will again result in another relatively cool night across the region with lows ranging from the mid 50s to upper 60s. On Wednesday and Thursday, the troughing pattern will remain intact over the Intermountain West, which will keep 500 mb hghts near to slightly below seasonal levels in a 575-576 dam range. Despite the below normal 500 mb hght field, there will be a slight warming trend in the low-level thermal profile which will promote at least a degree or two increase in temperatures mid-week. This will result in highs reaching back into the mid to upper 90s in most lower desert communities both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Winds each day will mostly follow seasonal trends; light winds during the overnight and morning hours and modest upslope breezes in the afternoons with gusts up to 15-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The slow warming trend is forecast to continue through Friday and this coming weekend. Global ensemble guidance supports the large- scale synoptic pattern across the west finally evolving out of the current state, with the strong blocking ridge near B.C. Canada giving way/weakening as a strong low traverses across Alaska. This change will result in at least a temporary de-amplification of the pattern across the western CONUS for the weekend and a trend toward positive 500mb height anomalies with brief anticyclonic flow developing over the Desert Southwest. This trend will lead to high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s by Friday and pushing 100 degrees by Sunday - Monday (30-60% odds of >=100). This pattern shift will also allow for some moisture to seep into AZ, from the southeast and with evening gulf surges, as global guidance shows a slow uptrend in PWATs Friday through the weekend. This may end up leading to some AZ high terrain afternoon convection, which is supported by some low-end NBM PoPs this weekend (<25% over eastern AZ mountains). The odds are a little higher Monday with the potential for a weak Pacific low to move inland from the west, but this is about all that can be anticipated this far out. This is climatologically the driest time of year for the AZ and SoCal lower deserts, so it is hard to put much optimism into a long-range precip forecast for the lower deserts. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0525Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast period. W-SW winds will continue into the overnight hours, with speeds aob 10 kt. The diurnal easterly shift should occur late tonight at KIWA and KPHX (09-10z). A slow transition back to W-SW is anticipated again tomorrow with a few hours of southerly/VRB winds expected prior to the shift. Winds should go W-SW by 21Z. BKN high cirrus clouds will continue through the overnight hours and slowly clear out late tomorrow morning. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather issues will exist through the forecast period under mostly clear skies. At KIPL, winds will be W'rly during the evening and overnight hours and N'rly during the late morning and afternoon hours. At KBLH, NW'rly winds will continue through tomorrow afternoon before going SE'rly tomorrow evening. Wind speeds will be aob 10 kt at both terminals through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... There will be a slow day-to-day warming of temperatures, but overall high temperatures will remain near seasonal normals throughout the rest of this week. Very dry conditions will also persist through the end of the week with relative humidity bottoming out around 5-15% each day. There will be a slight bump up in moisture late this weekend/early next week that may lead to isolated dry thunderstorms in the mountains of eastern AZ, but minimum RHs will still be low around 10-15%. Overnight recoveries will be also remain poor to fair, mostly around 25-45%. Seasonal wind patterns are expected through the rest of the week, with afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph. There will also be a slight uptick in southerly up-river winds along the Colorado River Valley Friday through this weekend, but afternoon and evening gusts are currently forecast to top out in the 20-30 mph range along the river. There will also likely be a return of evening and early-overnight gulf surge boundaries moving up from the Gulf of California through the AZ deserts. These boundaries will mostly lead to a brief uptick in winds and sudden southwesterly wind shifts. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Salerno LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Salerno  711 FXUS65 KTFX 200526 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1126 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through this evening across the region. - More widespread precipitation tomorrow through Thursday. - Snow levels drop Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing for light snowfall accumulation in the mountains. - Warm and dry conditions are expected Friday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 608 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Residual moisture from the backside of an upper level trough exiting to the east will bring slight chances for precipitation this afternoon through this evening. There is enough instability to support weak thunderstorm development, especially in Central and North-central MT. Another upper level trough moves down from the Canadian Rockies into Montana tomorrow, bringing widespread wetting precipitation. There will still be enough instability to where a rumble of thunder could be heard across the region. A weak cold front passing through tomorrow night will cause snow levels to drop to around 6,000 ft. This will allow for light snowfall over the mountains and higher elevation mountain passes tomorrow night through Thursday morning. The exceptions are the Gallatin and Madison ranges, which could see a few inches. Thursday the upper level trough begins to move southeastward out of MT, allowing temperatures to begin to rise. Ridging builds over the western CONUS through the later part of this work week into the weekend, allowing warm temperatures, sunny skies, and dry conditions to prevail. Current models are showing breezy conditions this weekend, but as of now nothing impactful. -Dzomba - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Hi-res models are showing pretty scattered 15-30% chances for precipitation across the region today. In general, most locations will remain dry throughout the day except for where these pop-up showers end up developing. The highest chances for thunderstorm activity will be across Central and North-Central MT There is still good agreement for widespread wetting rains tomorrow. The heaviest amounts are currently expected along a stretch from the Northern Rockies down through Central MT including Great Falls and Helena into Lewistown. Probabilities of more than 0.10" of precipitation in this area are currently 80-100%, while probabilities of 0.25" of precipitation are currently sitting at 50-70%. While precipitation amounts across the remainder of North-Central and Southwest MT are not expected to be quite as high, there is still a 20-40% chance for a tenth of an inch or more. -thor and Dzomba && .AVIATION... 20/06z TAF Period An upper level disturbance moving over the Northern Rockies will spread precipitation from north to south across North Central through Southwest Montana, with VFR CIGS falling to MVFR/low-VFR between 15-21z Wednesday and then persisting through the remainder of the 2006/2106 TAF period. While terminals will predominately see light rain or rain showers the KGTF, KLWT, and KHLN terminals have the best opportunity for an isolated thunderstorms; however, even these chances were to low to mention. Mountain obscuration will begin to increase between 09-15z Wednesday. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 39 56 36 60 / 20 90 60 20 CTB 38 54 33 62 / 20 70 20 10 HLN 38 63 36 61 / 10 60 90 20 BZN 33 61 33 56 / 20 30 90 50 WYS 26 56 28 51 / 10 20 90 40 DLN 34 61 33 58 / 20 10 80 30 HVR 39 61 34 65 / 30 50 10 20 LWT 35 56 33 55 / 20 80 60 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  770 FXUS62 KMFL 200527 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 127 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through this evening. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are the main threats. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all urban areas through the end of the week. Heat indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The pattern will remain generally unchanged through the short term period, with an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf and over the peninsula and an upper level low meandering over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters, extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining some moisture advection near the surface. However, overnight observations from the 00Z MFL sounding and ACARS flights at KMIA show a pocket of drier air intruding near the mid-levels. Water vapor imagery suggests this is dry air being pulled southward along the western periphery of the upper level low currently east of the Bahamas, and model guidance supports a continuation of this phenomenon at least through Thursday. In fact, most modeled PWATs within the ensemble guidance envelope are trending below average for this time of year, really highlighting the shift from conditions earlier in the week. With prevailing easterly flow and some low-level moisture still in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries over interior/southwest FL each afternoon. However, with drier air aloft and weak forcing and steering, any activity that develops should be transient and sub-severe in nature, with occasional lightning and some gusty winds the main impacts. Some spots could get half an inch to an inch of rain, but otherwise the risk of localized flooding remains low at this time. Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), with heat indices peaking in the mid 90s across the East Coast, and up into the triple digits across southwest FL. Warm overnight temperatures, especially across the East Coast, will impede much in the way of relief, especially for any vulnerable communities. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The pattern will remain generally unchanged for the latter part of the week and through the weekend, with upper level ridging extending across the Gulf and the aforementioned upper level low continuing to meander over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters and extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining healthy moisture advection along the atmospheric column. Ensemble guidance places PWAT values during the period solidly near the climatological normals for this time of year (1.5- 1.7 inches) while model soundings show this moisture permeating the whole column (and not just the lower levels like was the case earlier this month). With prevailing easterly flow and ample moisture in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries each afternoon. Although some isolated activity will likely develop over the East Coast metro early each afternoon, the better chances for more widespread activity (in the 50-70% range) will be spread out across southwest Florida and the interior where the sea breezes are forecast to meet each day. Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), although some of the shower activity could help provide some brief, localized relief and help temper conditions. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the period. Easterly- southwesterly winds prevail, with the potential for SHRA/TSRA present at KAPF. AT KAPF, a Gulf breeze is forecast to develop in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Generally benign boating conditions will prevail as alight to moderate easterly breeze persists across the local waters. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day, but will favor the Gulf waters under this easterly wind regime. Gustier winds and rough seas are possible in and around thunderstorm activity. && .BEACHES... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Strong onshore flow will continue to promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 78 89 79 / 20 20 10 10 West Kendall 89 74 90 75 / 20 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 89 77 90 78 / 20 20 10 10 Homestead 88 76 89 77 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 86 79 87 79 / 20 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 86 78 87 78 / 20 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 90 78 91 79 / 20 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 86 78 88 79 / 20 10 20 10 Boca Raton 86 78 87 79 / 20 10 10 10 Naples 91 74 91 76 / 70 30 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...ATV  801 FXUS63 KOAX 200528 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1228 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather continues with the potential for morning frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday. - Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday continuing on/off through Friday. - Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure was building in late this evening with clouds slowly, but surely starting to clear out of the area. Winds will also become quite light as the high passes over, setting up what looks to be a chilly night. Latest guidance suggests fairly widespread 30s, with portions of northeast NE and west-central IA dipping into the lower to mid 30s. Expect frost development in much of this area with potential for a few spots getting below freezing. A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM. The surface high will push to our east through the day on Wednesday as some weak shortwave energy currently over the Desert Southwest ejects eastward toward the area. This will lead to increasing cloud cover and perhaps a few sprinkles or showers in portions of northeast NE, but they likely won't amount to much more than a few hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, temperatures remain on the cooler side, with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Another bit of shortwave energy will slide through southern portions of the forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance is in better agreement that we see some showers and perhaps an isolated storm with this, mainly near and south of I-80 (30-50% chance). Meanwhile, a trough will be digging into the western CONUS out of Canada and eventually push east into the forecast area late Thursday night into Friday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that we'll see widespread rainfall with this system on Friday (60-80% chance), but still some differences on exact track and resulting rainfall amounts. Consensus currently suggests most places see a few tenths at most. Warmer, drier air will move in behind this system as it departs on Saturday, allowing temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. We'll warm further on Sunday and Monday as the trough axis pushes to our northeast and ridging starts to build in. Expect upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday followed by widespread 80s Monday into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are set to continue through the next 24 hours, with winds quieting down to near or less than 5 kts and turning increasingly northeasterly. From there, Winds will stay pretty steady direction-wise, increasing to 5-10 kts while a SCT deck of clouds develops at FL035 during the afternoon hours. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044. IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Petersen  966 FXUS63 KDLH 200531 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1231 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for light showers and sprinkles continue this afternoon and early evening. - A Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd on north, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s and threaten sensitive vegetation. A Frost Advisory has been issued for areas to the south. - Cool temps continue through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. - Near-critical fire weather conditions may develop on Thursday due to relative humidity dropping to 25 percent and gusty south winds up to 20 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, chilly and cloudy conditions will persist across the Northland with scattered rain showers/sprinkles. Temperatures tonight will highly depend on the cloud cover. Satellite imagery shows a cellular nature to the clouds, which have broken out best over north-central Minnesota, but the cumulus field still extends well to the west and south. This creates a classic spring conundrum for overnight low temperatures when the mean of guidance is near freezing. High confidence exists for clearing and colder temperatures in the southwestern sections of our region, while lower confidence remains for the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Am least confident (40-60%) in getting below 35 degrees over northwest Wisconsin due to the cloud cover, so have issued a Frost Advisory for all of northwest Wisconsin and Pine County in Minnesota. Around the Brainerd Lakes, I have the most confidence they will clear out and have gone below guidance with min temps around freezing. Farther north and into the Arrowhead, confidence in cloud cover lowers again, but the incoming air is cold enough I still have high confidence in freezing temperatures. A Freeze Warning has been issued tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd and northward, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s. Wednesday will give us a sunny and milder day with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with cooler conditions near Lake Superior. Clear skies Wednesday night will allow for rapid cooling once again, leading to another night of patchy frost across the area with lows in the mid 30s. Frost Advisories are possible, even likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. On Thursday, high pressure departs to the east, bringing sunny skies, southerly winds warmer temperatures which continue into Friday. Highs both days should get into the 60s with upper 50s near Lake Superior. Rain chances return Friday night through Saturday as an upper level trough moves out of the Northern Plains and across the Great Lakes. Mostly cloudy skies and damp conditions will keep Saturday highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Upper level ridging to our west and southerly flow across the region will bring a surge of much warmer temperatures to the region for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend. I expect highs on Monday to be well above normal. However, this will be a fairly active pattern with shortwaves likely to dive through this upper level pattern, and we also have some chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Some lingering cloud cover may lead to brief MVFR ceilings at DLH and INL. Winds will remain light and variable through Wednesday afternoon for all except DLH and HIB, which could see a few easterly gusts from the lake breeze. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Northwest to west winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots to slowly subside this afternoon and tonight. Winds back into the southeast and then east on Wednesday, remaining generally less than 10kts with waves of 2 feet or less. The east winds continue into Thursday, gradually increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range with waves slowly building but remaining below 3 feet. Stronger winds and building waves are expected Friday into Saturday as a low pressure system moves towards the area. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty northwest winds and afternoon sprinkles occur today with chilly air moving in, keeping relative humidity values above 50 percent. Wednesday brings a dry day with light winds under high pressure. Fire weather concerns increase for Thursday, featuring gusty southerly winds up to 20 mph and minimum relative humidity values dropping to 25 percent. The most concerning conditions with the strongest winds will be found from Koochiching county south through the Brainerd Lakes. Moisture begins moving back into the area for Friday, which should keep minimum RH values above 30 percent for most of the area. The gusty southerly winds continue Friday, reaching 20 to 25 mph. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>037. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ038. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...KML MARINE...LE FIRE WEATHER...LE  843 FXUS65 KABQ 200530 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1130 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1120 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark favored to return to the middle Rio Grande Valley and surrounding highlands Wednesday afternoon. - Overnight rain showers and patchy drizzle over eastern New Mexico will give way to increasing thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Thursday east of the central mountain chain. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 A nearly stationary H5 trough draped from northeast to southwest across the Great Basin will keep dry southwest flow aloft over the southern Rockies thru Wednesday. At the surface, a moist backdoor cold front that surged southwest thru eastern NM this morning is banked up against the central mt chain with gap winds still gusting to around 30 mph in the RGV. Surface convergence between the dry southwest flow across western NM and the moist southeast flow from eastern NM will help to develop gusty high-based showers over the northern mts thru this evening. This activity will move quickly northeast before fizzling out over the Sangre de Cristo Mts by midnight. Low level southeast flow will persist over eastern NM tonight and help widespread low stratus to develop east of the central mt chain. 13Z NBM ceiling probabilities <3,000' are 40-60% over east-central and northeast NM with probs <1,000' around 20-40%. Several model soundings also support patchy drizzle over parts of the eastern plains with enough elevated instability for light rain showers as well. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding how much instability will be present over eastern NM Wednesday afternoon. CAMs and global models are all over the place with convective initiation, coverage, and even the existence of storms east of the central mt chain. QPF amounts with models that do show storms are all over the place as well. The latest SPC convective outlook expanded the 'Marginal Risk' over eastern NM. Low level moisture will remain in place over eastern NM Wednesday night with high chances for more low stratus east of the central mt chain (40-60% chance). && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 By Thursday and Friday, forecast models are in very good agreement dragging a more well-defined H5 trough from the northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains. This will help to force drier zonal flow eastward across more of NM with near total scouring of low level moisture from eastern NM. Downslope flow will allow temps to trend warmer over eastern NM with widespread breezy west winds and humidity below 15% (except perhaps northeast NM). Surface high pressure building down the Front Range in the wake of the departing trough axis is shown forcing a moist backdoor cold front into eastern NM Saturday. Meanwhile, an H5 ridge is shown building over the southwest U.S. thru early next week with low level return flow improving Sunday and Monday. This may begin a much anticipated pattern change toward increasing chances for showers and storms with measurable rainfall amounts. The 13Z NBM 50th percentile QPF has widespread amounts >0.10" over central and western NM with >0.20" over eastern NM Sunday thru Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 A surge of easterly winds are pushing their thru the gaps of the central mountain chain this hour, already having produced strong southeasterly gusts at KSAF >40kts. Based on ABX radar observations, it is currently pushing thru Tijeras Canyon toward KABQ and is expected to surpass 35kts b/w 06Z to 10Z at times when an Airport Weather Warning has been issued for. Otherwise, the main aviation impacts look to be the development of IFR/MVFR ceilings or even isolated LIFR ceilings across eastern NM tonight and thru Wednesday morning. There is considerable uncertainty with how persistent these lower ceilings will be through the day Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity is also likely over portions of NM, notably southeastern NM Wednesday afternoon, but to what degree, coverage, and intensity is highly uncertain. TAF AMDs will likely be necessary for KROW because of this uncertainty, and will be dictated by when low ceilings clear or not clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Critical fire weather over the lower Rio Grande Valley and nearby highlands today may return tomorrow with similar conditions to today. RFTIs may trend a tad lower Wednesday but ERC values are still high with an even longer period of single digit humidity. Confidence is not high enough yet to issue a Fire Weather Watch given wind speeds are more marginal. If speeds trend stronger then a Red Flag Warning may be needed. Breezy south to southwest winds with more single digit humidity over central and western NM Thursday and Friday will lead to widespread elevated fire weather. Confidence is higher that winds will remain below critical thresholds. Meanwhile, eastern NM will be under the influence of moist southeast flow and increasing chances for low clouds, patchy fog, drizzle, showers, and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Beginning Saturday, a pattern change toward more widespread moisture with lighter flow aloft is anticipated. This transition may bring higher chances for showers and storms with wetting rainfall over much of the region thru Tuesday, especially eastern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 42 76 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 36 73 31 75 / 5 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 42 74 40 75 / 20 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 35 74 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 40 72 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 41 77 40 77 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 42 75 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 51 78 50 76 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 46 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 39 79 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 84 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 35 66 33 69 / 20 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 50 73 49 73 / 20 20 5 5 Pecos........................... 43 70 43 74 / 5 30 40 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 69 41 70 / 40 20 0 5 Red River....................... 32 59 34 61 / 50 20 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 31 65 30 66 / 30 30 10 20 Taos............................ 40 74 37 74 / 20 20 5 10 Mora............................ 40 66 42 70 / 30 30 50 30 Espanola........................ 48 80 45 81 / 10 20 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 49 73 48 75 / 10 20 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 77 45 78 / 10 20 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 83 54 82 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 84 51 83 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 87 50 86 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 85 52 84 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 51 87 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 53 85 51 84 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 86 46 85 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 86 51 85 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 54 80 53 80 / 10 5 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 53 85 52 84 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 56 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 77 48 76 / 5 10 5 0 Tijeras......................... 46 78 48 77 / 5 5 5 0 Edgewood........................ 45 77 44 78 / 5 10 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 79 40 79 / 5 10 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 44 69 44 74 / 10 30 20 10 Mountainair..................... 46 79 45 77 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 47 78 46 76 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 75 50 73 / 5 10 0 5 Capulin......................... 36 58 40 66 / 20 20 60 60 Raton........................... 40 64 42 70 / 20 40 50 60 Springer........................ 42 65 43 72 / 20 30 50 60 Las Vegas....................... 42 63 45 72 / 20 30 50 20 Clayton......................... 42 61 47 71 / 10 30 60 60 Roy............................. 42 60 45 71 / 20 40 50 50 Conchas......................... 47 68 48 80 / 20 60 50 40 Santa Rosa...................... 47 68 47 77 / 20 60 50 20 Tucumcari....................... 48 70 50 80 / 10 60 40 50 Clovis.......................... 50 69 51 80 / 20 50 20 30 Portales........................ 50 70 50 81 / 20 50 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 50 73 50 82 / 20 60 30 20 Roswell......................... 57 80 55 86 / 20 40 20 5 Picacho......................... 52 78 50 82 / 10 40 10 20 Elk............................. 49 81 49 82 / 5 20 5 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...24  870 FXUS65 KBOI 200530 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1130 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry with temperatures warming through Friday. - Well above normal temperatures over Memorial Day Weekend. Gusty winds and a few mountain showers possible on Memorial Day. - Turning cooler early next week with gusty winds and increasing chance of precipitation starting Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Our region will remain positioned on the western edge of upper level troughing through Thursday. While the focus of organized precipitation will remain to our east, daytime instability will support widespread cumulus buildups over the mountains as seen this afternoon. There's a slight chance that showers could develop from the cumulus field across e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho mtns each afternoon. Localized gusty winds will be possible from showers or more robust cumulus (with or w/o precipitation). Shower chances briefly increase to 15-25% in the w-central Idaho mtns and s-central Idaho zones Wednesday night in response to a passing shortwave trough. Otherwise it's dry and temperatures are on the way up, leaving behind any frost/freeze concerns for the Snake Plain. By Thursday high temperatures will be several degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Western US by the end of this week, bringing generally clear, warm and dry conditions to the region through Monday. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above normal. The ridge will reach peak strength on Sunday, with high temperatures near 90F in the Treasure Valley. By Monday, models indicate that an upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest will begin to increase chances for precipitation. The upper level trough will move inland on Tuesday, with about half of the models showing that the trough will evolve into a closed low over the Pacific NW by Tuesday or Wednesday. In either scenario, temperatures will cool down 10-20 degrees by Tuesday increasing winds and chance of showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance). && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1127 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR. Mid and high clouds on the increase into Wednesday afternoon with WNW winds increasing as well. Showers possible over central Idaho after 20Z. Surface winds less than 10 kt, becoming WNW 10-20 kt with higher gusts after 20Z. Winds aloft at 10kft N 20-30 kt. KBOI...VFR with some mid/high clouds. Surface winds SE less than 10 kt, becoming WNW 10-20 kt after 20Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....MC SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JB  087 FXUS63 KMPX 200535 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1235 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of frost overnight, especially across western and central Minnesota. - Seasonably cool & dry weather persists through mid-week. - Shower & thunderstorm chances return Friday through the Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Current observations highlight spotty sprinkles/drizzle thanks to the lingering stratus deck. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 50s with northwest winds gusting to 25 mph. It will feel much closer to late March than late May. Skies will gradually break up this through the evening with clearing skies likely overnight as a surface high pressure moves in. Northwest winds will turn light and variable overnight. The combination of light winds and mostly clear skies should allow our temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s across much of western and central Minnesota. A Frost Advisory goes in effect tonight through early Wednesday morning given the likelihood of areas of frost across western and central MN. What about a Freeze Warning if my low temperature is 30? Sub- freezing temperatures are possible tonight, especially across central MN, but the residence time below freezing shouldn't be long enough to experience a proper freeze. This is why we went with a Frost Advisory versus a Freeze Warning. Temperatures should remain a few degrees warmer across E/S MN and W WI, helping prevent any meaningful frost formation. Temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 60s on Thursday as southeasterly winds set up in the return flow across the Upper Midwest. Our attention then turns to the holiday weekend. Our next chance for any meaningful precipitation arrives Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Precipitation is tied to a shortwave tracking along the US- CAN border. While there could be some embedded thunderstorms with this system, the general pattern doesn't appear favorable for meaningful severe weather chances. The remainder of Memorial Day weekend should be pleasant. Temperatures rebound into the 80s Sunday and Monday with limited precipitation chances. Guidance solutions remain varied with precipitation chances Sunday/Monday, but nothing that would imply a washout or even a disruption to outdoor plans. Warmer, Summer-like temperatures will stick around for the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Clear skies early this morning with west-northwesterly winds around 5kts becoming light and variable this afternoon. Did toss in a tempo at AXN for a potential of MVFR BR between 8-12z this morning. Few to Sct high-level clouds develop this afternoon but otherwise, should be nice day to take to the skies. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR/-RA early. Wind E 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Brown- Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift- Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Polk- Rusk. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...Dunleavy  171 FXUS63 KDMX 200536 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1236 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler from today through Friday, with daily highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s. Late tonight/early Wednesday low temperatures will range in the mid-40s southeast to mid/upper 30s north and west, where patchy frost will be possible. - The forecast is dry from tonight through Wednesday, then rain chances will gradually increase Thursday and peak on Friday when showers will be likely (60-80% chance) with a few thunderstorms. Severe weather is unlikely. - Temperatures will warm this weekend into early next week, with daily highs returning to the 70s and 80s. Rain chances will be generally lower during that time, but some showers or storms may still be possible at times. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 It has been decidedly cooler today, with thick stratus clouds and brisk northwest winds keeping temperatures in the upper 40s northwest to upper 50s southeast early this afternoon. Cold air advection will weaken this afternoon, but the clouds will still inhibit warming and temperatures will peak in the mid-50s northwest to lower 60s southeast today. Meanwhile, a large surface high pressure ridge is building across the Dakotas, and will move eastward into Minnesota and northern Iowa tonight. This will cause winds to steadily diminish later today and this evening, becoming much lighter and gradually turning from northwest to northeast by Wednesday morning. The primary forecast question during this time pertains to the degree and timing of clearing that occurs, and how far temperatures fall overnight as a result. Forecast soundings depict a rapid drying of the cloud layer during the evening, roughly coincident and just after sunset, which is consistent with climatological expectations. High-resolution model output also supports this scenario, however, thus far today the model depiction of cloud cover evolution has been well below what is being observed in satellite imagery. That being said, over the last couple hours some slight clearing has been evident on satellite upstream, closer to the center of the high pressure ridge, and the expectation is that we will in fact gradually clear out this evening and early tonight. This will result in prime conditions for radiational cooling overnight into early Wednesday, especially in our northern and western areas where clearing will occur earlier, and where the high pressure area will build in sooner. Temperatures in these areas will fall into the 30s by sunrise Wednesday, however, frost formation is still uncertain due to two primary factors. One is that dewpoints are predicted to be in the mid-30s, so temperatures may not fall below the 35-37 degree range. The other is that while winds will be light, the core of the high pressure ridge will remain over Minnesota and South Dakota, and winds in our area may not go completely calm. Have included an hour or two of patchy frost in just a few spots in our northern counties, but have held off on a Frost Advisory for now due to these mitigating factors. Whether an advisory becomes warranted later today or not, there is some possibility of frost particularly in low-lying areas of northern Iowa and over toward the Nish valley. From Wednesday into Thursday Iowa will lie beneath west southwesterly 500 MB steering flow, through which a couple of very subtle shortwave impulses will move. While these will provide some modest but broad forcing for ascent, initially any precipitation attempting to develop will be fighting low-level dry air/subsidence associated with the slowly departing surface high pressure system. Initially this will result in increasing mid/high level clouds on Wednesday, then by Wednesday night and Thursday we will see gradually increasing rain chances returning to the area, especially our southern counties farther from the influence of the departing high pressure. PoPs increase to 40-50% in that area by Thursday afternoon, however, a lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms or severe weather during this time. The increasing clouds and persistent easterly surface flow out of the high pressure area will support a continuation of cooler weather, however, with high temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday ranging in the upper 50s to mid-60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 By Thursday evening a 500 MB trough will be moving over the U.S. Rockies, and will subsequently become negatively tilted as it emerges over the northern High Plains Thursday night and Friday. As this trough swings across the region, it will generate a broad swath of rain associated with surging moisture, increasing winds aloft, and modest theta-e advection. This swath will enter our southwestern counties Thursday night and move across our forecast area on Friday. Instability will be very limited with surface temperatures only in the 50s to lower 60s, but will still be sufficient for a few elevated thunderstorms at times though severe weather will be unlikely. The rain will move out to the northeast late Friday, after which one last lobe of vorticity clearing out the larger-scale trough will cross Iowa late Saturday. Moisture will be much more limited and it remains to be seen whether any additional showers or thunderstorms will occur in association with that feature. For now 70-80% POPs are carried across Iowa Thursday night into Friday, with only 10-20% POPs on Saturday. In the first half of next week, from around Sunday to Wednesday, a large thermal trough will build over the central U.S., as a blocking pattern sets up with a large 500 MB low forming over the western U.S. Synoptically this would tend to support significantly warmer and generally dry weather for our region. However, there will initially be a week 500 MB trough/low over Texas as the larger ridge begins forming on Sunday, and long- range models are at odds with how that feature will interact with the ridge. The EC and GEM essentially wash out the low as it is overwhelmed by the larger thermal ridge, however, the GFS maintains it as a discrete feature that becomes trapped in the ridge and advects slowly northward over Iowa early next week. This leads to rapidly decreasing confidence in forecast details in the outer periods, however, even in the GFS solution generally warmer temperatures would still be favored, and it seems a safe bet that the cool weather of today and the next several days will be broken as we head into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Winds will be light from the northwest overnight before gradually shifting to becoming from the east by the end of the period, with wind speeds under 10kts at all sites. Skies will remain mostly clear through about 20z Wednesday, before a weak system will bring cloud bases down to FL120. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Hagenhoff/Rotter  147 FXUS63 KPAH 200536 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1236 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage this morning, bringing another 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. A low risk for localized flooding issues shifts more southeast into mainly western Kentucky with torrential downpours, but is not expected to be widespread enough to support a flood watch expansion. - A brief lull in the rain occurs Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by daily chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance southeast portions of the Quad State exceed 3 inches of additional rainfall by next Tuesday. - Temperatures trend 5 to 10 degrees below normal today through Thursday in the low to mid 70s, followed by a warming trend this weekend with temperatures returning to the 80s. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast with highs warming into the mid 80s by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A cold front is now beginning to push southeast across the Quad State this morning. The increase in surface convergence combined with forcing associated with a mid-level vort max will continue to cause an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity. Most of the 0z CAMs focus the potential for an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall more south across western Kentucky that is currently not under a Flood Watch. Given that any flash flooding issues are likely to remain fairly localized at most with rainfall rates between 0.5 to 1.0 inch per hour, have decided to not expand the watch. 1 hour FFG is also quite high in the 1.75-3.00 inch range with storms that will be fairly progressive. Given WSR-88D trends, the HRRR/ARW seem reasonable as convection will continue to lift northeast through this morning. As the cold front pushes southeast of the Kentucky Pennyrile this afternoon, showers and storms will begin to taper off for most of the FA by this evening. High temperatures will also be unseasonably cool ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s from northwest to southeast. Highs in the 70s are then progged through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a 1030 mb sfc high pressure will advect in much drier air for Thursday with a 30-40% chance of a returning thundershower confined to mainly the southern most counties. The break in the active weather pattern will be short lived as a warm front lifts north Friday morning into Friday afternoon with a 80-90% chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. The potential for severe weather does not look concerning as instability will be limited with poor lapse rates. Split flow aloft will keep the weather pattern unsettled for the holiday weekend into early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly return flow will continue to advect in moisture each day with the LREF supporting a 50-70% chance of exceeding 3 inches of additional rainfall through next Tuesday across the southeast half of the FA. Temperatures do trend warmer back into the 80s as a closed low enters the western CONUS on Tuesday and helps to amplify a ridge over the southeast CONUS. Highs eventually return to the mid 80s by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight into the morning, then more showers/rain/drizzle will be possible, especially at the Kentucky sites through the day. The cold front will be slow to move overnight, but should eventually reach all sites by 12Z. IFR ceilings are expected at all sites by morning and LIFR conditions will be possible through the day. The precipitation should be done by 00z in most locales, but ceilings will struggle to improve. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ILZ087-091. MO...None. IN...Flood Watch through this afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ014-018. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DRS  179 FXUS64 KOHX 200537 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1237 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Medium to high rain chances continue each day through the forecast period. - Rainfall totals of 2+ inches through the weekend, with some localized high amounts possible. Some minor flooding concerns. - Temperatures near seasonal norms through the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front will continue to slowly sag SE across Middle TN on Wednesday. This will maintain high rain and storm chances across the area, with the best coverage and intensity expected during the afternoon and evening as diurnal heating combines with ample low- level moisture (PWATs remain near or above 1.5 inches). While instability will be modest behind the initial front passage, shear is weak and any training or slow-moving storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. Highest probs for showers and storms will shift south of I-40 on Thursday as the front stalls across northern MS/AL. Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorms will remain likely, especially south of I-40. Rain totals through Thursday night could add another 0.5 to 1.5 inches for many locations, contributing to the broader wet pattern. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than recent days, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s. No significant severe weather is expected during this time, though brief gusty winds and small hail are possible with the stronger storms. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The stalled frontal boundary to our south, combined with an upper-level troughing pattern across the eastern CONUS, will keep and active weather pattern in place through early next week. Multiple shortwave disturbances riding along the front will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evenings. Rain chances remain medium to high each day. Forecast rainfall through the weekend and into early next week continue to support high probabilities for at least 2 inches across much of Middle TN. Some areas could see 3+ inches, especially if training storms develop. This will bring some drought relief. On the flip side, there will be some concern for minor flash flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures will remain near normal, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s and overnight low in the mid to upper 60s. Beyond the weekend, model agreement decreases but the overall pattern favors continued unsettled conditions with daily rain chances into mid next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Coverage of showers and storms will increase from west to east, mainly after 12Z as a front zone settles over the area. Before the rain and storms, VFR will prevail. Variable cig/vsby conditions will accompany storms with localized heavy downpours and gusty winds. Later in the period, after 21Z, conditions will trend downward to IFR cigs with areas of showers. Winds will be generally light through the period. Directions will be variable but mainly southwest through 21Z, then mainly north northwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 63 80 64 / 90 70 70 80 Clarksville 77 62 77 63 / 90 40 60 80 Crossville 82 61 77 61 / 90 50 90 70 Columbia 82 63 81 64 / 80 60 80 80 Cookeville 82 62 78 63 / 100 60 90 80 Jamestown 83 60 77 61 / 100 60 90 70 Lawrenceburg 81 63 80 64 / 70 70 70 80 Murfreesboro 84 63 81 64 / 90 70 80 80 Waverly 78 63 79 64 / 90 50 70 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cravens LONG TERM....Cravens AVIATION.....13  180 FXUS66 KMTR 200537 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1037 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1036 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 - Diurnally driven winds, with onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening. - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week. - Warm and dry weather through Thursday leads to elevated fire weather concerns for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1036 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (Tonight through Thursday) Little change in the forecast as high pressure slowly creeps into Northern California today. Satellite imagery this evening shows high clouds sliding down the West Coast, with much of the Bay Area likely seeing some cirrus. With the current data, temperatures look to be on track; however, if we're not able to get radiational cooling, our temperatures for tonight might be low/cool. This would be because the clouds act as blanket, allowing less heat to escape at night. It'll be something to keep an eye on over the next few hours. In terms of Wednesday, if you guessed, "No pattern change. Ha, this means another day of warmer weather", you'd be correct! A potential fly in the ointment is if the marine layer attempts to manifest around 500 feet. This might keep temperatures a few degrees cooler along the immediate coast, but elsewhere temperatures should be similar to Tuesday, perhaps a few degrees higher. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1036 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) No major changes to the extended forecast. Upper level troughing looks to keep hold over the western US, while the Pacific high pushes even more into northern California on Thursday. With the high being a bit more pronounced, another warm day will be on tap. After that, guidance has flow becoming quasi-zonal for a brief period before troughing returns on Friday. The marine layer looks to be around 500ft on Thursday, deepening to around 1000ft by Friday and then lasting through the weekend. With onshore flow, a deeper marine layer, and troughing through the weekend the NBM's temperatures are bit too warm. Opted to start trending towards slightly cooler temperatures given the ensembles and cluster analysis. But there is a chance ridging wins out and temperatures might warmer. Definitely something to keep an eye on over the next few days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 926 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of MVFR at HAF. Winds may become calm and/or light and variable overnight. Low to moderate confidence in IFR conditions developing at terminals tonight - the most likely timeframe is 12Z to 16Z. Coastal terminals will be at greatest risk with risk decreasing for bayshore and interior terminals, respectively. Higher confidence in IFR conditions returning tomorrow night. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Moderate to high confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Low probability for sub-VFR conditions to develop at the terminal tonight as the compressed marine layer will be unable to penetrate the San Bruno Gap. Reasonable worst case scenario is stratus sneaks through the Golden Gate Gap and brings FEW/SCT to the north side of the terminal. SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach has a lower probability of sub-VFR conditions. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with northerly flow at SNS. Confidence has increased in sub-VFR conditions developing at the terminals tonight, especially for MRY. Ceilings will likely be on the cusp of IFR/LIFR. && .MARINE...(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 926 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue through Wednesday for the northern outers due to rough seas and strong northerly breezes. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes and moderate seas will prevail. Conditions improve into the weekend as seas and northwesterly breezes become moderate. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  274 FXUS62 KMLB 200539 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 139 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Continued high risk for life-threatening rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! - Humidity increases late week into the weekend, leading to heat index values near or above 100 degrees. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast across east central Florida. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue each day, moving inland toward the west Florida coast by the afternoon and evening. Overall, many locations will stay dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Now-Tonight...Isolated, east-to-west-moving showers are developing this afternoon in the presence of 1.5-1.6" PW (GOES imagery). Some cells have produced lightning, more so after reaching interior portions of east-central Florida (north side of Lake Okeechobee and northwest of Orlando). About 400 miles to the east of Cape Canaveral, satellite imagery clearly outlines a spinning upper low and weak surface trough. Persistent easterlies, sufficient moisture, and perhaps a small influence from this offshore feature are even supporting isolated shower development at the coast as of 2 PM. CAMs have struggled to resolve this shallow-layer precipitation for the last 24 hours, so decided to update the forecast with a low rain chance over the waters and immediate coast through tonight into Wednesday morning. Rain will be hit or miss for most locations with the greatest chances (30%) focused well inland. Any deeper convection is expected along the west coast of FL into this evening. Overnight lows settle into the low 70s inland but will remain in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. At the beaches, a high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged! Wednesday-Tuesday (modified)...The surface ridge remains over the western Atlantic through the period, with its axis stretched generally towards the Carolinas into the weekend. Aloft, the aforementioned mid to upper level low drifts towards the east coast of Florida through Thursday-Friday before it weakens and ridging restrengthens this weekend into next week. Overall, little change is expected to the Florida peninsula's weather pattern over the next seven days. East to southeast flow increases to around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each afternoon, especially behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours, occasionally drifting onshore, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Then, convection focuses over the interior or western half of the peninsula, with the greatest coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze collision in the late afternoon and evening. Rain chances are generally 15-30% through the rest of the work week before moisture increases a bit this weekend. Rain chances tick upward toward 30-50%, but again, not everywhere will see measurable rainfall. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday before increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures reduce that threat into the weekend. Onshore flow keeps high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. However, this will also lead to overnight lows remaining in the mid/upper 70s, at times even near 80 along the immediate coast. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which creep into the upper 90s to low 100s. Humid conditions and little relief overnight will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk and even a developing Major HeatRisk for several ECFL locations (including the Orlando metro). Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks in an air-conditioned space. A high risk or high-end moderate risk for rip currents looks to continue through the week into the weekend, thanks to onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 East-southeasterly flow continues with largely favorable boating conditions this week into the weekend. Moderate breezes with occasional gusts 15-20 kt are forecast each day, along with isolated/scattered shower and lightning storm chances. The greater risk for rain and storms will be over the FL Peninsula as the east coast breeze moves westward in the afternoon/evening. However, shallow, low-level moisture will support at least isolated showers through the weekend. Seas generally 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft occasionally well offshore. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR outside of any showers and storms. Onshore flow will continue to prompt rounds of isolated onshore-moving showers along the coast. Have kept VCSH mentioned at all coastal terminals from 14Z-20Z. Slightly better chances for isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast across the interior as the sea breeze moves inland, and have included a mention of VCTS at the Greater Orlando terminals and LEE this afternoon and evening. East winds increase to 10-12 kts this afternoon with locally higher gusts at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 72 89 75 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 90 72 91 74 / 30 10 30 10 MLB 86 77 88 79 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 87 76 88 78 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 91 73 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 SFB 91 72 92 74 / 30 10 40 0 ORL 90 72 91 74 / 30 10 40 10 FPR 86 75 88 77 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Law  260 FXUS63 KDDC 200538 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Exceptionally pleasant latter half of the week - Rain chances (60-90%) for SW Kansas tomorrow night into Thursday morning - Warming back up into the 80s next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The synoptic pattern aloft is fairly unnoteworthy aside from a positively tilted low-pressure tough stretching down into southern Nevada. Close to the surface, weak low pressure has built up over the Great Plains portion of the CONUS. This evening will continue to see winds ease and temperatures drop via radiative cooling. Cloud cover building tomorrow afternoon will keep highs from getting too warm with the majority of SW Kansas staying in the 60s for a maximum temperatures. The significant focus of the forecast cycle comes tomorrow night will widespread precipitation expected. Models and ensembles continue to prog subtle moisture advection up into western Kansas. Very marginal chances begin via ensembles after noon. The chances uptick significantly after sunset with scattered showers descending southeastwardly. Forecast soundings have precipitable water values between 0.5-1". Despite CAMs holding a more scattered precipitation regime, ensembles keep amounts from 0.1- 0.25" with a maxima near 0.5 inch around Garden City. Instability is expected to be minimal to start with only benign showers forecast initially. Ensembles are very optimistic with rainfall chances through the event at or above 90% for the entire CWA, although it appears possible that some areas may only see amounts near a trace. While most of the first round of precipitation is expected to occur before noon Thursday, recent CAM runs have a convective signal near the Colorado border and weakening as it moves eastward into the evening potentially lasting into Friday. Again with the cloudiness and rain, highs again are forecast in the 60s across SW Kansas Thursday. Highs begin warming up on Friday with highs in the 70s, and into the 80s by Sunday. The start of next week will continue the warmer trend in the 80s. The forecast period has occasional possibilities for more precipitation, but the chances and agreement is low enough to where it is too uncertain to make declarations. However, in the wetter calmer pattern, minimum relative humidities maintain above 20% to quell most fire weather risk. Other than non-severe precipitation, little in the extended period is noteworthy. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period although lowered flight conditions may occur near the end of the period. Mostly weak surface highs aloft are present to start the period; light winds (5- 15 KTs) out of the east are forecast to continue. By around 2Z, lowered cloud cover and scattered showers are expected at or around all stations. Prior to 6Z, ensembles keep chances for <3k ft ceilings and probability of precipitation below 50%. However, it is very feasible that one more multiple sites may see lowered flight conditions in the TAF period owing to one or both of these conditions and future aviation forecasts will have more refined guidance. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...KBJ  251 FXUS63 KLOT 200538 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry but cooler conditions Wednesday and Thursday, followed by increasing rain chances Friday. - Intermittent shower/thunderstorm chances for Memorial Day weekend, though much of the period should be dry. - Several periods of moderate to high swim risk conditions possible through early next week due to persistent northeast winds over Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front currently nearing the I-39 corridor across the western CWA will shift eastward across the forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon. With the combination of an outflow boundary early this morning now east of I-57, increasing low-level cloud cover, and 600-800 hPa warming, the potential for any storms or appreciable heavier showers appears to be confined to the extreme southeast CWA (south of a Paxton to Rensselaer line) for the next few hours. Otherwise, spotty shallow showers remain possible anywhere ahead of the cold front through the daytime hours. Though the front will track well south and east of the area tonight, modest low-level frontogenesis in response to a broad mid to upper- level jet may yield either a few light showers or a band of light rain across the far southern CWA overnight into mid-morning Wednesday. High pressure will expand across the northern Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday. Expect dry but cooler conditions amid persistent northeast winds through this period. A Pacific wave off the Baja of California will bring an area of increased mid-level moisture across the central CONUS late this week as low-level Gulf moisture is drawn northward toward the mid- Mississippi River Valley. Though stout low-level drying from the northeast over the Great Lakes will impede the initial northward extent of rain on Friday, the overall translation of deep moisture northward should overcome the low-level dry air and bring an area of rain across most of the area by late Friday. Poor mid-level lapse rates will greatly limit thunderstorm chances. A gradual warmup appears in store this weekend into early next week as broad ridging builds over the north-central CONUS. However, there remains substantial model disagreement as to whether a larger southwest CONUS trough late this week becomes cut-off over the southern Plains/Texas or remains loosely tied to the western edge of the ridge. The latter solution would bring cooler and more unsettled weather to the area late in the weekend and delay any potential warm- up to next week. As an added note, we are nearing the start of the Beach Hazards season. Given the potential for multiple periods of northeast winds and higher waves this week/weekend into next week, swim risk messaging may need to increase in the next couple days. Kluber && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 No major forecast concerns for the terminals for this TAF period. Mid-level cloud cover continues to stream over the Chicago area terminals associated with a plume of moisture on the backside of a elevated frontal zone. While BKN to OVC 10000-15000 ft ceilings are expected to linger overnight (especially at GYY), skies will scatter out around daybreak as high pressure builds into the area. VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the forecast period. Winds will remain breezy out of the northwest tonight with occasional gusts in the upper teens. Directions will become northeasterly around 12-13z Wednesday and remain as such for the rest of the TAF cycle with speeds in the 10-15 kt range with occasionally higher gusts through Wednesday evening before speeds easeinto the 8-10 kt range. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Thursday for the IL nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Thursday for the IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  318 FXUS65 KCYS 200540 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1140 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly temperatures will continue for the next several days. Another round of freezing temperatures is expected Wednesday morning in areas with snow cover, with patchy frost and fog elsewhere. - Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday night. A more widespread round of showers is expected Thursday into Friday. - Above average temperatures and pleasant weather expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Chilly and unsettled weather will continue for the next several days as temperatures will be slow to return back to seasonal averages. Broad troughing will remain over the west through the end of the work week, with a series of weak vort-maxes providing limited precipitation potential. The cold surface high pressure system is located over the central and northern plains, keeping fairly light winds and cold temperatures over the area today. Visible satellite imagery shows plentiful snow cover lingering over portions of Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave located over eastern Utah is supporting modest isentropic lift just to our south. This lift will very slowly creep north and eastward overnight and into Wednesday morning, which will support some isolated light shower activity through the period. This afternoon, expect this to be mainly in Albany and Laramie counties, but this will spread north and east overnight and into Wednesday morning. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible. As the mid-level lift pushes into our area, the surface high will retreat to the east, initiating southerly winds over much of the High Plains tonight. With moisture remaining quite elevated, we will need to watch for some fog tonight. Along and east of the Laramie Range, this will be upslope fog, whereas areas further west can expect some patchy radiation fog thanks to clearing skies, lingering moisture, and snow cover. Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties are more likely to remain clear overnight, and with the snow cover and light winds, another cold night is anticipated. Rawlins not only obliterated their daily record low this morning by dropping to 8F, but they also broke the previous monthly record low for May! Tonight will not be quite as cold, but a daily record low is still forecast for Rawlins again. Existing Freeze Watches were upgraded to a Freeze Warning for these areas. In addition, a Frost Advisory was spread one row of zones eastward. Current thinking is that further east, there will be enough cloud cover to prevent widespread frost issues, but the cloud deck edge main remain east of Platte and Niobrara counties. If clouds remain more limited than anticipated, frost could spread eastward, which will be monitored this evening. Wednesday will remain cool relative to seasonal averages with plenty of cloud cover, especially east of the Laramie Range. Drier air will start to move into our western zones, which will set up a dry-line / wind shift boundary somewhere in between the Laramie Range and the Wyoming/Nebraska state line. Some limited instability will setup along this boundary. While forcing looks quite limited, we may manage to kick off an isolated storm or two. PoPs generally remain between 20 and 40%. With moisture remaining elevated over the High Plains, we'll be looking at another chance for some fog and low clouds Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Frost and freeze concerns will be more limited, mainly in Converse, Carbon, and Albany counties, though increasing cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer than the preceding few nights. By Thursday, amore potent upper level low will dive down from Canada across the northern Rockies. This will be slow moving, pushing a few showers into our western zones during the morning hours. The dryline and wind shift boundary should remain in place into Thursday but it may be a little more diffuse. The main forcing with the upper level trough and strong isentropic lift looks to be fairly well timed with daytime heating, arriving in the early to mid afternoon hours. Expect numerous showers with isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms to expand in coverage through the afternoon hours and into the evening. Instability looks relatively unimpressive, around the 400 to 800 J/kg range, but a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out. Coverage of rainfall should be fairly good with this event. Most of the area has a 60% or greater chance for wetting rainfall (0.1" or more). For once, the higher probabilities are actually located in the Nebraska panhandle thanks to the instability and ample low-level moisture present. Shower activity will likely continue well into the night, and possibly even into Friday morning before the potent upper level low clears to the east and brings precipitation to an end. PoPs are fairly aggressive now, around 60 to 80% for most of the area, but this was toned down slightly from the NBM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 The long term should be a mostly quiet weather period with some initial precipitation on Friday leading to warm and dry conditions by the weekend. Friday starts on the backside of a quick moving clipper system that will see widespread shower and some thunderstorm chances across the CWA. Thankfully this activity will be mostly passing in nature with limited instability and support for stronger activity, and by peak heating later in the day the best forcing should be far enough east that activity will be lessening to dissipating across the region. Into the weekend and early next week the upper levels will see a weak ridge of high pressure take control that will keep us mostly clear and increase temperatures. While some passing showers may be possible, it will be mostly relegated to the high terrain from orographic flow as stronger systems and better moisture are not expected until beyond the long term. Otherwise this will lead to the return of warmer conditions, with spring like temperatures in the 50's to 60's on Friday giving way to 70's and 80's by Sunday and Monday, with a chance for our eastern zones possibly peaking into the 90's on Monday. With the increasing warmth comes decreasing moisture, and enhanced fire weather concerns may return for the Nebraska Panhandle Sunday and Monday as moisture has not been notable enough to produce significant greenup as of this writing. While winds are currently expected to remain too weak to produce critical fire weather concerns, the dry nature of the region will still be conducive of problematic control problems if new fires do start up. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1140 MDT Tue May 19 2026 Lighter winds, generally less than 10 knots, will continue for the overnight hours across all terminals. In addition, precipitation chances will increase over the next several hours at KCYS and then spread eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle between 12 and 15Z, with KAIA and KSNY having the best chances. This precipitation will bring in lower CIGs and reduced VIS, which could make flight categories dip down to MVFR and/or IFR conditions. Winds will ramp up again, starting around 12Z across southeast Wyoming and between 15 and 18Z for the Nebraska sites. So, expect gusty southerly winds increasing to 20-30 knots. With the added moisture that we've seen across southeast Wyoming over the past day orso, BR/FG once again may be possible, greatest chance at KRWL and KCYS tonight. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ102-106-107-117. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ101-115. Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ104-105-109>111-113-116. NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for NEZ095. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ/TJT  344 FXUS66 KPQR 200541 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1041 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...Dry and benign weather is expected across the region through much of the next week with high pressure remaining in place over the Northeast Pacific. Weak systems aloft may bring enhanced cloud cover on some days, but rain chances are minimal. Uncertainty in the forecast increases Sunday into Monday as chances for precipitation return. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Monday night...Broad upper-level ridging continues to build over the Northeast Pacific with persistent northwesterly flow streaming onshore from the Gulf of Alaska. This pattern will remain largely the same through Wednesday, with weak upper shortwaves bringing marine air inland and allowing pockets of mist or drizzle along the coast through the overnight and early morning hours. Temperatures will remain seasonable, around 60 degrees on the coast and near 70 degrees along the I-5 corridor. As offshore ridging shifts east late in the week, temperatures will trend warmer, reaching the 60s to near 70 degrees on the coast and upper 70s to mid 80s inland. This will support widespread Minor HeatRisk excepting only the immediate coast and high Cascade crest. Chances for Moderate HeatRisk are 20-35% in Portland and the adjacent northern Willamette Valley, 5-20% in Salem and Albany/Corvallis, and 5% or less elsewhere. Concerns for hazardous weather otherwise remain low. Friday through the holiday weekend, uncertainty in the evolution and possible break-down of the upper-level ridge yields growing uncertainty in forecast temperatures and precipitation. In general, as the ridge deamplifies, temperatures are more likely to trend cooler through the period, especially by Monday. The 80%-confidence envelope (the difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles) in temperature widens from 8-13 degrees on Friday and Saturday to 13-19 degrees on Sunday and Monday along the I-5 corridor, with warmer scenarios resulting from a more persistent ridge and cooler scenarios from a more rapid break down. There continues to be greater consensus of an upper-level trough digging over the Northeast Pacific on Monday, supporting much cooler temperatures and 30-60% chances for rain across the region, with the highest chances to the north of US-20 and in areas of higher terrain. -36 && .AVIATION...Northwest flow over continues over the forecast area supporting a mix of MVFR conditions along the coast and VFR inland. The summer-like pattern supporting marine stratus along the coast and MVFR CIGs is expected to persist through the overnight hours. VFR conditions inland are expected for a few more hours before chances for MVFR conditions increase. Guidance suggests some stratus backbuilding into the Willamette Valley from the Cascade Foothills. Chances for MVFR CIGs inland increase after 08z with all terminals seeing a 30-60% chance through 16-18z, highest in the southern Willamette Valley around KEUG and in the eastern Portland metro. Conditions expected to improve back to VFR by mid to late morning inland and early afternoon along the coast. Light winds overnight, becoming north/northwesterly Wednesday morning between 5-10 kt. Could see some gusts to around 20 kt at KONP during the afternoon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR conditions with a chance for a short period of MVFR CIGs earlier Wednesday morning. Guidance shows backbuilding clouds along the Cascades pushing eastward starting around 09Z Wed. 30-60% chance for MVFR conditions developing and impacting the eastern metro, mainly KTTD and KPDX with lower chances at KUAO and KHIO. If these conditions manifest, improvement towards VFR starting around 18Z Wed. Light winds overnight, becoming north/northwesterly 6-10 kt after 18z Wednesday. -19 && .MARINE...Northerlies are expected to persist through much of the week as the summer-like pattern settles in. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as a surface thermal trough strengthens over the region. Therefore, have updated the current suite of Small Craft Advisories as gusts up to 25 kt are expected across all zones with the exception of PZZ251, this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 feet are expected through the week as well. Chances increase on Thursday and Friday for widespread wind gusts for all marine zones. Small Craft Advisories are in place for the Columbia River Bar Wednesday morning due to strong/very strong ebb currents which will produce conditions hazardous to small craft. Strong/very strong ebb currents are possible during the morning hours each day this week. -42/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ252-253- 271-272. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ252-271-272. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ253. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  543 FXUS61 KPHI 200545 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 145 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. 2. A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. 3. Significantly cooler temperatures and showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will remain in place through tonight before it starts to flatten on its northwest side during Wednesday. This along with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic will continue to drive a southwesterly flow of early season (anomalous) heat across our area through Wednesday. Temperatures peak in the 90s for many areas again Wednesday afternoon, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. While the surface dew points will mix out some during peak heating this afternoon due to the drier ground and boundary layer, this stretch of early season heat, with additional record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. The Heat Advisory remains in place across much of the region, where the heat index criteria starts at 100F (the urban I-95 corridor criteria starts at 96F through June). While some areas will probably fall a little short, the potential for greater impacts (lack of acclimation) continues to drive our decision. Where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore continued to not include the immediate coastal zones in the Heat Advisory. Peak heat indices will be near 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east during Wednesday as a strong cold front starts to arrive. Despite it being a little cooler from Berks County, the Lehigh Valley into northern New Jersey Wednesday, it will be another day of hot and humid conditions. Given the consecutive stretch of this early season heat, opted to continue the current Heat Advisory through 8 PM Wednesday but extended the far north and west segment (also through 8 PM Wednesday). High temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how quickly cloud cover arrives along with showers and some thunderstorms, especially north and west of I-95. Either way, we will have a high launching pad once again for temperatures to start Wednesday and it will still be rather hot. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will settle across our area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night before stalling near Delmarva into Thursday. Showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, and there looks to be a zone of higher instability across our central and southern zones Wednesday afternoon. It is in these areas where convection may try to organize a bit more as it develops eastward and encounters plenty of instability. The deep-layer shear is on the marginal side (strongest shear to our northwest) as are the mid level lapse rates, however a hot boundary layer will result in steep low-level lapse rates. The combination of the steep low-level lapse rates and any stronger convective cores, locally strong to damaging winds (downbursts) will be possible. Due to the lower shear convection may struggle to organize, however given the hot air mass in place some linear or small clustering could develop from about the Philadelphia metro on south and eastward late in the afternoon and evening. The coverage of stronger convection is of lower confidence, however given the lower shear values the severe thunderstorm risk looks isolated. General rainfall totals are 0.10- 0.50 inches, however given precipitable water values of 1.5-2.0 inches, localized higher amounts are quite possible with any stronger showers or thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms should end by late Wednesday evening, with some showers lingering in the wake of the cold front. KEY MESSAGE 3...Significantly cooler temperatures and showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. A cold front is forecast to settle and then stall to our south Thursday and into the holiday weekend. Some ripples of energy ride along and north of it and this looks to bring some rounds of showers to our region. A more organized surface low well to our west may provide an increase in showers or a period of rain later Friday and Saturday. The precipitation may become enhanced some as surface high pressure to our northeast wedges southwestward into our area creating some cool air damming. This will all result in much cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday, then some warming should take place Sunday and into Memorial Day. The pattern looks active though and therefore some additional showers are quite possible right into Memorial Day. While not great timing, our region needs rain as a long-term drought continues. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...VFR overall with increasing clouds during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms arrive later in the afternoon and evening with areas of sub-VFR conditions. Locally gusty winds possible with a stronger thunderstorm. Southwest winds increasing to 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence on timing details. Outlook... Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions with some showers. Friday through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions with showers at times, especially late Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will be gusty, to 20 knots, through Wednesday, however a hot air mass over the chilly ocean water is resulting in a very strong inversion just about the surface. This is limiting the vertical mixing. While seas in the southerly flow could build to 5 feet through Wednesday, it is very marginal and therefore the Small Craft Advisory was cancelled. There is the potential for isolated gusty thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday evening. Outlook... Thursday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Friday and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions should occur. Sunday...Seas may linger around 5 feet, otherwise the conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Rip Currents... On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will range from 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. On Thursday, winds become northeast 10 to 15 mph at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County, and 15 to 20 mph at the rest of the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. There will be a southerly swell with a period around 6 seconds. Breaking waves will be 1 to 3 feet. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County and a MODERATE risk for the rest of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Surface temperatures inland will be in the 90s again on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Some record breaking temperatures are forecast through Wednesday. High temperatures today and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 (new record today) Reading (RDG) 96/1962 (new record today) Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 (record tied today) Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 (new record today) Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-070- 071-101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ007>010-012- 013-015-017>020-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Gorse AVIATION...AKL/Gorse MARINE...AKL/Gorse/MPS  413 FXUS63 KGID 200544 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1244 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory tonight into Wednesday morning for areas near/north of Highway 92. - Light rain is expected in western areas during the day Wednesday. A few showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) move in from the west Wednesday night. - Additional showers/t-storms Thursday evening through Friday. The threat for severe weather remains low. - A drying and warming trend is expected this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures remain relatively cool today behind the system that resulted in multiple rounds of severe weather over the last 3-4 days. Tonight, temperatures are anticipated to drop into the 30s and 40s, aided by light winds and mostly clear skies under surface high pressure. Clouds are then anticipated to increase early Wednesday morning, which should keep temperatures from dropping much below 35 degrees. Nevertheless, this may result in some frost formation, potentially damaging sensitive plants in areas near/north of Highway 92. The Frost Advisory area is "generous," mainly because we are so far into the growing season already. Many areas, especially in southern parts of Howard, Sherman, and Nance counties, likely will not see any frost impact. Wednesday will remain cool, and rain is expected to slide in from the west as an upper trough pushes into the central Plains. Many areas will remain dry, but western zones could pick up 0.05-0.15". Later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, isolated to scattered showers/t-storms become possible, but instability is very limited and no severe weather is expected. Late Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is expected to cross the northern Plains, bringing more widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region. The severe threat remains minimal, but this COULD bring some relief to drought- stricken areas of western Nebraska. Low rain chances linger on Saturday, but overall things will trend drier and warmer for the Memorial Day weekend as upper level ridging returns to the north/central Plains. After almost a week of near to below- normal temperatures, 80s are expected to return for Sunday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will generally range from east to southeast between 5 to 10 knots. There is a small chance (around 20% to 30%) of MVFR ceilings at KEAR around 18z but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-046- 047. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Schuldt  430 FXUS63 KJKL 200545 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 145 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorms will become more prevalent today, with rain chances continuing through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1123 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 The main change to the forecast was to lower overnight PoPs in our western and northern counties; this better reflects radar trends given a lull in showers and storms. Temperatures and dewpoints were also nudged to better fit current observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time. UPDATE Issued at 707 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Given ongoing convection located primarily in Whitley and Laurel counties, the main change to the forecast at this time was to increase hourly PoPs for the southwestern portion of our forecast area. Convective coverage is still expected to diminish around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Other than that, temperatures and dewpoints were nudged and winds were adjusted to be more in line with current observations. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 One more hot and mostly sunny afternoon is underway across eastern Kentucky. Satellite imagery shows an extensive cumulus field across the area and radar shows some spotty convection near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment. Thermometers are also near record territory for this date, ranging in the mid 80s for most. The latest weather map shows the high pressure responsible for the hot and dry weather of recent days now departing off the East Coast, though still dominating over the southeast US. Meanwhile, an ~1004 mb surface low is situated northeast of Lake Superior while a cold front extends southward from the low across the Ozarks and Southern Plains. Aloft, an around 588 dam ridge remains over much of the Southeast CONUS. Upstream, a 500 hPa trough is passing through Central Canada and brushing the northern Plains while a trailing shortwave is situated over the Great Basin. Vorticity energy is streaming northeastward from the Western Gulf area and across the mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys in the southwest flow between these troughs and the Southeastern ridge. The northern stream trough will flatten and lift into eastern Canada through the short-term period along with the remnant Great Basin shortwave trailing as the ridging only slowly subsides over the Southeast CONUS. Meanwhile, the surface low will lift northeast toward Labrador while deepening ~990 mb. The low's trailing cold front will only slowly cross the Lower Ohio River late tonight and sag across eastern Kentucky during the day on Wednesday. Initially, upper level vort energy ejecting northeast from the Western Gulf coast should aid in the development of diurnally- driven scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, primarily near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment though an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out further east. Renewed convective activity may impact locations near and north of I-64 Wednesday morning predawn as the boundary approaches our area. Ahead of this boundary, the 19/12z HREF shows 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE building by afternoon with 20 to 30 kts of surface-500 hPa shear south of I-64 by Wednesday midday to afternoon. This may be sufficient for some cell organization, especially for convection that develops discretely or in clusters out ahead of the cold frontal boundary. SPC has included most of the area under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday for an isolated hail or damaging wind threat. Cloud layer winds will tend to force cells that develop along the actual cold front to move back atop a more stable post-frontal environment, limiting overall extent and vigor of convection along the true surface boundary. While PWATs ahead of the boundary will rise to near or over 1.50 inches, progressive cell movement and dry antecedent conditions (Moderate to Extreme Drought) should preclude any notable hydro concerns outside any urban/poor drainage areas that get a quick inch or two of rain under the heaviest activity. For Wednesday night, shower activity, mainly light, is likely to linger as disturbances aloft continue to drift over the forecast area. In sensible terms, spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through mid-evening, diminishing after sunset. Showers may develop again toward morning, especially near and north of I-64 and closer to central Kentucky. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 60s. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread in from the northwest on Wednesday with highs ranging in the upper 70s northwest of I-64 to the upper 80s in the deepest valleys near the KY-VA border. Showers linger Wednesday night while temperatures settle back into the lower 50s north of I-64 to the mid 60s near the KY- TN border. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 The forecast period begins with the region situated on the backside of a departing cold front. Although the boundary will be sagging southward, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the area. Given marginal instability and weak kinematic profiles, severe weather is not anticipated, and activity should remain largely garden-variety. Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover will suppress daytime heating, keeping afternoon highs on the cooler side. Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 70s across the northern portions of the area, while areas along the Tennessee border should top out in the upper 70s. Overnight lows for Thursday into Friday morning will remain mild as a quasi-stationary boundary begins to lift northward as a warm front, initiating a warming trend. This warm front will cross the region on Friday, serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This wet pattern will persist through the weekend as precipitable water values climb well above 1.50 inches within a deep moisture profile characterized by a skinny CAPE distribution. Furthermore, ECMWF Shift of Tails (SoT) values are progged to approach 0.8 on Friday before exceeding 0.8 Sunday into Monday. For context, a SoT greater than 0.8 is highly indicative of an unusual event relative to the climatological norm. As Fridays synoptic evolution locks the region into a pattern supportive of repeated training rounds of convection, this event may ultimately be classified as climatologically anomalous. An analysis of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble systems reveals strong model consensus, with nearly all Total QPF members indicating that rainfall totals upwards of 3.00 inches are possible through Monday morning. The current deterministic forecast package projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area. Locations along the West Virginia and Virginia borders will likely see lower totals due to local downsloping effects. Once the stalled boundary finally shifts eastward on Monday, another surface low is progged to develop and track northeastward into the area. This system will bring a secondary round of showers and storms, keeping the region wet through the remainder of the forecast period. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift away from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks toward a much wetter synoptic setup. While the expected heavy rainfall will help reduce the current precipitation deficit, overall totals will still track below normal for this time of year. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday) ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Valley fog has developed in and around locations that saw rain during the afternoon and evening Tuesday, including at least briefly at KSME and KLOZ. This fog may continue intermittently through 09z-12z this morning, or until increasing lower cloud cover provides sufficient insolation to dissipate fog. Otherwise, the forecast features widespread VFR gradually diminishing to sub-VFR conditions as shower and thunderstorm activity increases through the morning and afternoon, with activity become more showery in nature after about 23z-02z, as the instability is mostly tapped out by that time as a weak cold front stalls from near KSJS to KJKL to north of KSME around 00z Thursday. Widespread MVFR or lower conditions are then likely after 00z as the front remains across the area and shower activity continues through the end of the TAF period. Thunderstorm activity will be most prevalent in the afternoon period, and a few storms could be on the strong side with gusty winds and hail. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...FAGAN/JP SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...CMC  576 FXUS64 KSJT 200545 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1245 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible for this evening and tonight across the Edwards Plateau and western Concho Valley. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon, with some being severe. Expect these storms to continue developing and expanding in coverage through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Most CAMs eventually expand this convection into a somewhat organized MCS, and move it south into south Texas later tonight. The main concerns will continue to be large hail and damaging winds. In addition, precipitable water values are between 1 and 1.5 inches, and with the generally slow movement of these storms, flash flooding will also be a concern. For Wednesday, CAMs disagree with each other on the coverage and intensity of possible convection, but with a boundary in the area, the moisture remaining in place, and continued southwest flow with embedded shortwave energy, we will likely have another at least medium (20%-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon as afternoon heating affects the area. We will continue to see at least a Slight Risk for severe storms, mainly for our southern counties Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The upper level pattern shows persistent troughing over the western US, especially over the Desert Southwest and Baja California, for Thursday through this weekend. This places the southern Plains in predominantly southwest flow aloft during this time. Several weak embedded waves will be ejected eastward by the trough into west Texas for Thursday through Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly to southeasterly flow should continue to advect a moist, unstable airmass into west central Texas over top of the boundary that stalled across Texas on Tuesday. On Thursday there are medium to high (40-75%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches are expected which may lead to more heavy rain and flooding concerns, especially across eastern counties. Chances for storms look lower on Friday after the first upper-level wave passes and the aforementioned surface boundary lifts northward to the central Plains. The upper-level trough over the Baja will move eastward into Texas on Saturday while the surface front drops southward into west Texas. Afternoon thunderstorm chances should increase again for Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of this front. Models show this upper low potentially becoming a weak cutoff low over east Texas for early next week while another upper trough approaches from the western US. This setup would keep our neck of the woods in an active pattern with chances for thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday. The risk of severe weather is difficult to determine at this time until the picture becomes a bit clearer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thunderstorm complex has moved east, temporarily leaving VFR conditions. However, stratus with MVFR ceilings was moving back into KABI and the rest of the terminals should fall back to MVFR overnight. Ceilings should rise to VFR by early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but isolated thunderstorms may also affect the rest of the terminals. A larger complex of storms will move in late evening from west to east, with MVFR ceilings returning by midnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 63 78 63 / 30 60 70 10 San Angelo 77 62 80 63 / 50 70 40 20 Junction 80 63 80 63 / 50 80 50 20 Brownwood 77 63 77 62 / 30 70 70 20 Sweetwater 75 62 78 63 / 40 60 50 10 Ozona 78 62 81 63 / 70 70 30 30 Brady 77 63 77 63 / 40 70 60 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...04  540 FXUS65 KGJT 200545 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1145 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures linger into Wednesday morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect for the lower basins of northwest Colorado. - After Wednesday, temperatures begin to trend above normal and will continue that way through the weekend. - Precipitation is periodically possible throughout the week, mostly confined to the higher terrain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 952 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Overnight clearing skies will contribute to sub-freezing temperatures into the early morning Wednesday. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for northwestern Colorado and are set to expire at 9 AM. We are currently in the midst of a pattern shift, where ridging and high pressure will begin to build this weekend. The weather will be generally dry and quiet as this transition occurs, with the exception of some of the higher terrain locations. Wednesday temperatures will still remain below normal, but that will be the last day with below normal temperatures for the current week. Some scattered afternoon rain and snow showers are possible (30-50%) in the central and southern mountains Wednesday afternoon. Warming temperatures associated with the building ridge will keep any snow accumulations very minimal and confined to the highest elevations for that time period. On Thursday, another shortwave trough will begin to propagate through the area, bringing lift and weak moisture to the northern half of our CWA. Some model guidance suggests this trough may take a more southerly track which would favor precipitation chances along I-70. As more high resolution model guidance comes out, more certainty will be revealed for the most favorable location for moisture. But at this point, the current forecast keeps rain and high elevation snow chances primarily for the northern areas. Past Thursday, some pockets of vorticity and available moisture may support terrain based afternoon convection each day as we move into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 A frontal boundary stretching across the Four Corners and Colorado is pushing cloud cover northeast over the terminals this morning. This will keep some upper low to mid level clouds in the ceilings. KASE could see breakpoints with shower development early Wednesday morning, but still a low chance with PROB30 language only at this time. This trend will hold true against the Continental Divide Wednesday, with a few showers forming on the terrain. Moisture remains rather weak though, so not expecting widespread aviation concerns. Gusty outflow winds will be a concern for valley terminals(KTEX, KGUC) near terrain based showers. Afternoon winds will gust around 20 mph across the region Wednesday afternoon then sit down around sunset. VFR conditions will close out this period, as models hint at pushing this frontal boundary eastward Wednesday night. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  647 FXUS63 KGLD 200546 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1146 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week. - Marginal severe risk Thursday afternoon and evening, primarily in Colorado, but could see that into northwest Kansas through the evening hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough will remain anchored over the western CONUS through Thursday, then will merge with a closed upper low over the northern Rockies on Friday. Shortwaves ejecting eastward from these systems will result in occasional chances for shower and isolated thunderstorms. The first wave moves out of southern Colorado tonight and northeastward into central Nebraska tomorrow. Scattered light rain showers will develop tonight through Wednesday morning, best chances will be north of Interstate 70. Some weak instability does develop along the Front Range Wednesday afternoon where scattered thunderstorms will develop. Deep layer shear around 50kts will be sufficient for supercells as they migrate eastward across the plains, but with rapidly diminishing instability do not think they will impact our area. However, the remnant showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm with some weak MUCAPE will be moving across the area Wednesday evening. Not expecting any hazards with this activity other than localized wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Showers should persist into the overnight hours with the upper trough axis still to the west, with best chances south of Interstate 70. Thursday will see a somewhat similar scenario, but shifted northward as the northern Rockies upper low strengthens and a stronger shortwave trough moves across eastern Colorado at the time of peak heating. The instability axis will shift further east and the REFS has a corridor of 1000-1500 j/kg from Limon to Fort Morgan along with 35kts of deep layer shear. While the surface-based instability will rapidly weaken after 00Z, MUCAPE of at least 500 j/kg as well as deep layer shear of 40kts are forecast as the showers and thunderstorms move in from Colorado Thursday night. The parameters suggest a marginally severe storm or two will be possible with some pockets of MUCAPE up to 1000 j/kg forecast by the NAM through about 06z before weakening. NBM has rain amounts of up to 1" in eastern Colorado Thursday evening with the stronger storms, then around 0.25-0.50" in the rest of the area overnight with rain and isolated storms. The upper trough axis and associated surface cold front will be slowly moving through the area Friday morning with showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing. This morning activity should limit the afternoon instability, though it is possible some clearing could occur on the western and southern edges of the forecast area. Also will need to see where the front ends up in the afternoon as new convection could develop along it. However, both the GFS and ECMWF currently have the front well to the south, entering Oklahoma, while the NAM is slower and has the front in the southern part of the area. Since this is still a few days out and there will be multiple days of convection which may impact the ultimate timing and location of the front, confidence is low in the details and any potential severe hazards on Friday. Temperatures through the period show little variation with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 110 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Saturday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough along the Rocky Mountains. Expect mostly sunny skies and a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25-35% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties Sunday and Monday. Warm temperatures continue Tuesday with highs forecast in the 80s. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible Tuesday for the western CWA. With relative humidity (RH) values overall trending down and forecast in the low 20s for Tuesday, fire weather potential will need to be monitored through the week. Models are in disagreement on the track and evolution of a surface low off the coast of Baja California that starts to develop late Sunday. If this surface low ends up tracking toward our region, we have potential for an active pattern and severe weather potential late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 GLD: VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period, with ceilings at or above ~6,000 ft AGL. SE winds at 7-12 knots will increase to 12-15 knots w/gusts to ~20 knots a few hours after sunrise and persist through the afternoon. Winds will back to the ESE-E and decrease to 10-12 knots after sunset, near the end of the 06Z TAF period. MCK: VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period, with ceilings at or above ~5,000 ft AGL. There is low probability (~30%) for MVFR conditions associated with showers after sunrise, mainly between ~12-16Z. SE winds at 5-10 knots will modestly increase to 10-13 knots a few hours after sunrise and persist through the afternoon. Winds will back to the ESE-E after sunset, near the end of the 06Z TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...Vincent  691 FXUS63 KTOP 200547 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1247 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures through Thursday then much warmer late this weekend into early next week. - Precipitation chances return Wednesday night and continue into early Friday though no severe weather expected. - Mainly dry conditions likely for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cloud cover slowly diminishing with cool north winds keeping early afternoon temps in the 50s. Clearing trend continues into tonight though northeast winds stay up somewhat and should keep any frost potential in check; NBM 10th percentile has mid 30s for lows in northern portions of Republic and Washington Counties. Dry air remains in place Wednesday but little advection should keep highs in the 60s. South to southeast flow returns around 850 mb Wednesday night inducing weak though consistent isentropic upglide into at least Thursday night for high rain chances at all locations over this period. Better coverage and intensity may come Thursday night as a southern branch upper wave moves through. Instability remains meager with MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg though PW around 1.25 inches could support some decent rain. Rain and cloud keeps Thursday's highs cool again and 60s could be aggressive in a wetter scenario. Should see a break in precip Friday for warmer temperatures. Upper troughing remains just upstream into early Saturday which supports modest precip chances Friday night but features to support precipitation beyond this are uncertain at best with large spreads in solutions by Monday evening. A general southerly low-level flow supports temperatures back above normal by Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR for the period with mid clouds increasing into the end of the period ahead of the next weather system. ENE winds increase to around or just above 10kts later this morning into the afternoon as the surface ridge shifts gradually east. Should remain dry this period with any precipitation likely holding until sometime the next period. There could be an hour or so of shallow ground fog mainly at KTOP but this appears to be too low probability to mention. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Drake  759 FXUS62 KRAH 200549 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 149 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Made a downward adjustment to high temperatures on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 235 PM Tuesday... 1) Hot and dry through Wednesday. 2) Rain chances return Thursday, with chances persisting into early next week. Low confidence in high temps Thursday and especially Friday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 235 PM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and dry through Wednesday. Surface high pressure is located off the SE coast with mid-level ridging over the region. This is allowing for the extended period of southerly winds bringing hot temperatures and mainly dry conditions to continue through Wednesday. This afternoon, temperatures are still expected to rise generally into the mid 90s. Low level thicknesses are similar tomorrow afternoon, suggesting that highs should rise into the mid 90s again. Lows both nights also look to only drop into the mid-to-upper 60s, which will provide little relief from the heat. Thus, the HeatRisk both days is mostly Moderate (level 2 of 4), with a few isolated patches of Major (3 of 4). This means that heat may effect those without access to cooling and hydration, especially those who are sensitive to heat. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances return Thursday, with chances persisting into early next week. Low confidence in high temps Thursday and especially Friday. Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge may once again strengthen and lift newd across the region Thu night through Sat, with several s/w disturbances tracking across the Plains and MS Valley. A s/w will clip the region over the weekend, with high pressure strengthening again off the Southeast US coast early next week. At the surface, cold front approaching from the north will slide southward across central NC Thu aft/eve. A CAD air mass should set up through Fri/Fri night as high pressure tracking across the Northeast US ridges swd into the area and warm, moist air overruns the cool, stable boundary layer resulting in overcast skies and rain. Still expect the wedge to erode Sat/Sat night, with the front lifting nnwwd back across the area. However, the spread in available guidance increases beyond from Sat onward, with significant differences and forecast implications for central NC. The EC erodes the wedge on by Sat night, while the GFS keeps it in place into Mon. Precipitation: The best chances for showers/storms will be Thu along and ahead of the backdoor cold front as it moves into and across the area. In the wake of the front, warm air advecting in above the cooler, stable boundary layer could result in some light rain through at least Fri/Fri night over central NC. Regardless of what happens with the wedge, expect daily chances for precipitation Sat- Mon, with temperatures and instability the primary areas of uncertainty. Where/when the wedge erodes and a warm front lifts nwd across the area, there will be the chance for additional diurnally driven convection on the warm side of the boundary, while rain will be favored north of it. Temperatures: Highs Thu will be impacted by the timing of the front and the convection ahead/along it. For now, expect highs ranging from mid 80s north to low 90s south. There is a large bust potential wrt highs on Fri given the potential for CAD to briefly set up and possible continued rain into it. For now have highs ranging from upper 60s north to low/mid 80s south, but with below average confidence. Lows Thu and Fri nights expected to range from mid 50s north to mid 60s south. Generally expect temperatures to moderate back to near/slightly above normal over the weekend and early next week, but that will depend on when the wedge erodes. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions are generally expected across central NC over the 24 hour TAF period. While patchy fog can't be completely ruled out early this morning in the far SE (including FAY), current surface observations show only a couple sites near the southern NC coast are reporting reduced visibilities. Satellite imagery also depicts less coverage of fog compared to last night at this time, and model guidance (including the HREF, HRRR and RAP) is less bullish for fog. So opted to leave out mention in the FAY TAF, but it can't be totally ruled out in the far SE. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear with S/SW winds in the 5-10 kt range. Outlook: Flight restrictions will return on Thursday as a cold front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms along with gusty NE winds to the region. Sub-VFR ceilings also look to persist into Friday in the Triad and potentially RDU as a CAD regime looks to set up over the region. Daily shower/storm chances will also be possible through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022 May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 May 23: KFAY: 72/2011 May 24: KGSO: 69/2019 KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000 May 25: KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10/Helock AVIATION...Danco/Helock CLIMATE...RAH  712 FXUS63 KDVN 200548 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1248 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a cooler than normal second half of the week, rain chances will be on the increase just before the weekend. - A pattern change over the weekend will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the area next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Slowly clearing skies will be seen tonight into Wednesday with cooler than normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Thursday through Friday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of a storm system. Low to medium (20-40%) confidence on rainfall. The second half of the work week will be characterized by cooler than normal temperatures. The global models have a storm system forecast to impact the Midwest late in the week but there are timing differences. Interestingly, most ensemble members of the global models take the main surface low east of the Mississippi which raises questions regarding the overall rainfall potential for the area. The timing differences between the various models and their ensembles result in an overall risk for rain that potentially could start as early as Thursday or hold off until Friday. Based on the overall large scale picture, the various global models are indicating very late Thursday night into Friday as being the most likely time period for any rain to occur. Here the model consensus has a 60-70% chance of rain. Rain would then linger into Friday evening before ending. Overall rainfall amounts will be variable; Some locations will see under 0.25 inches of rain while some may see close to an inch. Sunday through Tuesday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of warmer than normal temperatures The holiday weekend will be mainly dry although a rogue diurnal shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Starting Sunday the pattern change will be noticeable as temperatures trend above normal and are then expected to remain above normal next week. All models show an upper level ridge building along the east coast which will place the Midwest in southwest flow aloft. Humidity levels will be on the increase with dew points raising initially into the upper 50s and lower 60s; tolerable for all but the most sensitive people. Starting Tuesday humidity levels will be much more noticeable and uncomfortable as dew points climb into the mid 60s. The increased moisture combined with the very warm temperatures and a passing upper level disturbance is expected to result in mainly diurnal convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right now the model consensus has rain chances at 15 to 25 percent. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with light NW winds turning to the NNE on Wednesday, generally around 10 kts or less. An area of low clouds between 3000-5000 ft AGL will linger near DBQ through the overnight before dissipating early Wednesday AM but still anticipating mainly VFR ceilings there. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Uttech  737 FXUS66 KLOX 200548 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1048 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...19/852 PM. Light offshore flow will continue through Wednesday leading to clear skies and warm temperatures. Beginning Thursday there will be a return to cooler May Grey conditions which will last through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...19/850 PM. ***UPDATE*** Weak offshore flow teamed up with totally sunny skies today to bring a 5 to 10 degree warm up to almost all of the forecast area today. Unfortunately the warm temps and light offshore flow also brought low humidities and some canyon winds which combined to produce a hazardous fire weather environment which did not help the fire fighters. Current forecast looks good with a return of onshore flow by late morning Wednesday which will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling to the csts/vlys with up to 10 degrees across the SBA south coast due to the lack of north flow. The interior will continue to warm tomorrow by about 6 degrees. ***From Previous Discussion*** Very little change to the previous forecasts through the rest of this week. Temperatures will peak Wednesday, generally 1-3 degrees warmer than today, except around 5 degrees warmer in the Antelope Valley. Light offshore flow will start the day but will turn onshore by afternoon or sooner at the coast. Warmer valleys will reach the lower 90s while areas towards the coast will be in the 70s and 80s. These are roughly 5-10 degrees above normal. While the upper level pattern remains more or less the same through the rest of the week, the primary change will be the reversal from offshore to onshore flow beginning Thursday which will bring temperatures back down to near normal levels by the weekend. This will also coincide with a return of the marine layer, as early as Thursday in some areas but possibly not til Friday or Saturday for the valleys. One exception to this may be southwest Santa Barbara County where a 2-4mb offshore gradient during the overnight hours will likely create nightly Sundowners with winds gusting between 25 and 40 mph at times, particularly Wednesday and Thursday nights. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...19/209 PM. The rest of the 7 day forecast into early next week is very benign as the baggy trough will persist with moderate to strong onshore flow through the period. This is likely to maintain temperatures near to slightly below normal temperatures with a steady dose of night and morning low clouds and fog covering most coast and valley areas. And once again there is the possible exception across southwestern Santa Barbara County where offshore flow returns Monday night with gusty north winds at times. && .AVIATION...20/0544Z. At 0522Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion with a top of 900 ft with a temperature of 26 C. High confidence in CAVU TAFs. There is a 20% chance of 5SM FU at KVNY. KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...19/755 PM. High confidence in current forecast. Through this weekend, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels, with a few exceptions of local SCA level gusts during the afternoons and evenings. Across the outer waters south of Port San Luis, local gusts to SCA levels will be possible each afternoon/evening through Friday, and again on Sunday. For the inner waters along the Central Coast south of Port San Luis, off the coast of Point Dume, across the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel, local gusts to SCA levels will be possible on Wednesday afternoon through early evening. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Lund SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  751 FXUS66 KOTX 200549 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1049 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - Potential cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday: Region remains on the backside of ridge extending into northern BC. Tuesdays afternoons instability will subside and calmer conditions expected tonight. Most of the region will remain in a dry, warming trend for the next several days. Weak shortwaves will continue to move North to South along the backside of the ridge. Along with afternoon heat, the waves will generate enough instability to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Best locations continue to be Northeast WA and the Idaho Panhandle with a 10-20% probability. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 30 mph and very small hail around pea size or less. Winds will also be breezy down the Okanogan Valley with gusts near 30 mph for Wednesday afternoon. The ridge shifts east and over the Inland Northwest. It will keep Thursday and Friday drier and warmer than previous days. Saturday will start a transition period as the the ridge starts to breakdown and trough begins to move into the Pacific Northwest. Highs for the period will be in the 70s to low 80s. Minor heat risk is expected across the region. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and low 50s. Sunday through Wednesday: Ensembles are in good agreement with the ridge breakdown and trough arrival. The main difference is timing. The GEFS is pushing it across the region starting late Sunday through Monday. The ECMWF is about 24 hours slower. Either way, the start of next week is expected to cooler and wetter than the end of this week. Snow levels will lower to around 5000 ft to perhaps bring light snow for the higher elevations of the Cascades. Precip amounts are expected to be light with a range of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will spark across northeast Washington and north Idaho again Wednesday afternon with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Winds will be fairly light but shift towards northerly component in the afternoon as south-north pressure gradient increases with a dry front passage from the north. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 45 70 43 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 45 68 42 71 47 74 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 Pullman 43 66 41 69 44 73 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 47 71 47 74 49 78 / 00 10 0 0 0 Colville 40 74 37 76 43 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 43 67 41 70 45 73 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Kellogg 43 67 41 71 45 75 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Moses Lake 45 77 48 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 50 77 52 78 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 47 77 47 78 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  778 FXUS61 KBOX 200550 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 150 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Signs of potentially salvaging at least one dry weekend day, but uncertainty remains high. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Final day of record warmth today with highs in the 90s away from the immediate coast. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms by the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and some hail. - Cooler temperatures through Memorial Day Weekend. Unsettled weather returns for the weekend with periods of rain possible, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Final day of record warmth today with highs in the 90s away from the immediate coast. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms by the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and some hail. One more day with near record temperatures on tap before a drastic return to your regularly scheduled May weather. The Heat Advisory remains in effect as we see an anomolously warm airmass remaining overhead, even as the upper level ridge begins to break down. Expecting a mix of sun and diurnal clouds, with westerly downslope flow once again contributing to temp maxima in the CT and Merrimack valleys. Again, will have to go to the immediate south coast to escape the heat but a slight shift in wind direction may bring those hot temps closer to the shore than on Tuesday. Relief then arrives behind a cold front which is dragged through the region from west to east between late morning and this evening. This warm and moist airmass (dewpoints climb into the mid 60s) produces a decent amount of instability, albeit a bit less than Tuesday, around 1,000 J/kg while model soundings show very steep low level lapse rates (8.5 C/km). Convergence ahead of the cold front will act on this airmass to produce a broken line of relatively shallow thunderstorms, limited in depth and organization by poor ML lapse rates and marginal 0-6 km bulk shear respectively. Unlike Tuesday's more northward severe risk, the best instability and resultant t-storm chance looks to be south of the MA pike where some damage wind gusts would be the main risk. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures through Memorial Day Weekend. Unsettled weather returns for the weekend with periods of rain possible, but confidence is low. High pressure slowly builds in on Thursday into Friday suppressing any rainfall to the south; some guidance wants to keep rain close enough to the southern periphery to brush the south coast with rain showers the first half of Thursday. Ensemble guidance is a bit more bullish on measurable rainfall Thursday morning than the current forecast, so that may end up needing to be bumped up in the future. Looking to the holiday weekend, as discussed last night the AI guidance continues to be dry, with a stronger high suppressing unsettled weather just to the south over the mid Atlantic while the traditional models are wetter and colder. That being said, the GFS continues to also suppress the rain south until Monday while the ECMWF has at least slowed the arrival, to perhaps salvage Saturday. That being said, ensemble guidance doesn't seem to have caught on to any drying ideas, still bullish on rain both days (both the GEFS and EPS). The main idea is, there remains a great deal of uncertainty with regard to the holiday weekend, but still leaning the forecast on a wetter and cooler (50s and low 60s) solution. Temperature-wise, after a seasonable Thu/Fri in the upper 60s/low 70s the weekend is looking like it may be colder than normal for late May. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Through 12Z...High confidence. Low to moderate confidence for ACK CIGS VFR overnight for most of the terminals. Possible IFR at ACK with areas of fog (lower confidence). SW winds 8-15 kts. LLWS possible for east and southeast terminals overnight. Wednesday...Moderate confidence (TSRA chances). VFR. Scattered TSRA along and ahead of a cold front in the afternoon and evening. Given widely scattered nature and uncertainty in location of TSRA, have included PROB30 groups for terminals PVD south. WSW winds 8-12 kts with gusts 20-25 kts turning NW behind the cold front between 16-00Z. Brief strong gusts possible in any thunderstorms. Wednesday night...Moderate confidence. VFR. Some SHRA may linger/expand over southern terminals overnight into Thursday morning. Light NW winds becoming N. Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light winds. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday through Friday: VFR. Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday: High confidence. Small craft advisories remain in effect through 06z Thurs. SW winds of 15-25 kt continues this afternoon and overnight Seas will also be building to around 4-6 ft, with some 7 footers possible tonight over the southern waters. Mainly dry weather prevails through tonight with a few showers or thunderstorms possible for the northern waters., Some fog may persist and expand across the southern waters tonight on increasing southwest winds. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ003>007- 010>019-026. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...BW MARINE...BW CLIMATE...BW  826 FXUS64 KMAF 200551 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1251 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Strong to severe storms remain possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly from the southern Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos. Large hail (up to 2 inches or greater), damaging winds (up to 70 mph), and frequent lightning will accompany the most intense storms that develop. - Strong to severe storms are expected once again on Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be threats as well as localized flash flooding. - Shower and storm chances continue into the weekend as additional disturbances move overhead. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Surface observations indicate that the cold front extends from just east of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains to the Upper Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin as of 2 PM CDT this afternoon. A cooler and drier airmass remains in place over the rest of the forecast area behind the cold front, and we ended up lowering afternoon high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s behind this boundary. SPC mesoscale analysis shows a corridor of moderate instability with CAPE values of 1500-3000 J/KG along and just of this boundary over the southern Permian Basin and into the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Big Bend where temperatures are in the upper 80s to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A shortwave impulse embedded within southwesterly flow aloft will move across west Texas this afternoon and we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the southern Basin and Lower Trans Pecos near the boundary and to the east of the trailing dryline late this afternoon into this evening. The moderate instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and increasing effective bulk shear will support organized storm growth and supercell development over these locations. Large hail up to 2"+ in diameter and damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe modes with any supercell storms that develop. The tornado threat will be lower, but still cannot be ruled out with supercells that develop in the vicinity of the front. Heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flash flooding. The severe threat should by mid to late evening as storms move east of our region. Cooler temperatures return tonight with lows in the 50s over parts of southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, as well as higher terrain areas. Lows will be in the 60s to near 70 over our central and southern zones. Another active day is expected Wednesday as shortwave impulses continue to translate over the forecast area within the southwesterly flow aloft. The surface boundary will remain oriented from the southeast New Mexico Plains to the Trans Pecos. Shower/storm coverage will increase over much of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, with the greatest coverage (50-70%) over the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and Big Bend. Instability and shear parameters will once again favor organized convection with a few storms capable of becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds. The greatest instability will be over the Permian Basin into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend where large hail over golfball size (potentially 2"+) will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. The severe threat may shift to our east by late Wednesday evening but a few showers and storms may persist into Thursday night under the southwesterly flow aloft. Localized flash flooding will be possible with storms that have intense rainfall rates. Highs Wednesday afternoon remain below normal with readings in the 70s and 80s over much of the region, except 90s along the Rio Grande. Lows Wednesday night range in the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 By Friday, the dryline looks to set up somewhere along our far eastern counties or just to the east of our forecast area. Meanwhile, guidance shows an upper-level low located over Baja, leaving the region under southwest flow aloft. This may allow for an isolated shower/storm or two to develop, but the best chances are currently expected to be east of our forecast area. Chances (10-30%) of showers and storms increase Friday evening with the retreating dryline. Long-range guidance keeps us under a similar pattern through the weekend/early next week (with the help of upslope flow), yielding shower and storm chances each day in the extended. At this time, there is uncertainty in rainfall totals, which will depend on where remnant boundaries set up and the track of the aforementioned upper-level low. Otherwise, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the 80s (90s in many spots on Friday) for most each day. Overnight lows bottom out into the 50s and 60s each night. Greening && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Easterly to southeasterly flow holds on across the area with speeds around 10-15kts with occasional gusts around 20kts. MVFR CIGs move in from the east between 10-12z and linger into the day today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 60 81 61 / 40 60 40 10 Carlsbad 83 59 88 60 / 30 30 20 0 Dryden 84 64 85 64 / 40 80 30 20 Fort Stockton 85 61 87 62 / 60 60 30 20 Guadalupe Pass 79 58 81 60 / 20 20 10 10 Hobbs 75 55 82 55 / 40 40 30 10 Marfa 86 51 82 50 / 20 40 20 30 Midland Intl Airport 77 60 82 61 / 50 60 30 10 Odessa 78 61 82 62 / 50 60 30 10 Wink 82 60 86 60 / 40 50 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...93  782 FXUS65 KBOU 200550 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1150 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled Tuesday through Friday with scattered to numerous showers and a few storms, most numerous in/near the Front Range. - Warming and drying trend for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1259 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough over the Great Basin with southwest flow across Colorado. The right entrance of a 100-110 knot jet will provide lift for bands of showers. Radar and satellite imagery indicate this jet lift is increasing with showers currently forming. Showers will continue through the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Best jet lift exits the area this evening, but upslope flow and ascent ahead of the trough should provide enough lift for light showers to continue tonight. The best chance for showers shifts over eastern Colorado by sunrise Wednesday morning. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening as upslope flow persist and lift ascent from the trough continues.  Colorado will be between systems late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. We finally see some sunshine, which will push temperatures into the 60s. This will help destabilize the airmass, with SBCAPE climbing to 500-1000 J/kg. Lift increases throughout the day ahead of an upper level trough moving east- southeast across Wyoming. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening. Depending on the amount of instability, a few of the storms could be severe. Something to monitor over the next two days. Areas of rain are expected to linger into the overnight hours Thursday and by Friday morning, rain showers will exit the eastern plains. Most of Friday is expected to be dry with temperatures in the 60s across northeast Colorado. A weak wave embedded in the flow aloft will bring scattered showers late Friday and early Saturday.  An upper level ridge begins to build over the Central and Southern Rockies Saturday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms decrease, but there may be enough moisture for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s across northeast Colorado. Ridging will be centered over the Central Rockies Sunday and the first half of Monday. Temperatures will continue to warm under the ridge with highs in the 70s to lower 80s across northeast Colorado. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be very low Sunday, but increase Monday as the ridge slides off to the east late in the day. For next Tuesday, models show an upper level trough digging south across the northwest part of the country. Ahead of this, we should see a round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.  && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/... Issued at 1143 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Light rain and mist will continue near the TAF sites through the early morning. Rain will likely clear out of the KBJC area first and KAPA last. We'll see a brief break in rain chances in the mid to late morning, before they return. Showers and storms are expected to form in the area around 17Z to 19Z and then progress eastward over the next couple of hours. This will be the best chance of showers and storms. There is potential for some lingering rain after the initial push, but models are starting to trend further south with that activity, so the best chance for additional rain in the afternoon and evening will be at KAPA. MVFR CIGs are present this evening and will continue through tomorrow morning, before they start to lift around 14Z to 16Z to low end VFR for the afternoon (4000ft to 6000ft). && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...AP  901 FXUS62 KRAH 200553 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 155 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Highs Thu continue to trend warmer, due to a slightly slower backdoor front. * Latest NBM still looks too warm for Fri highs in the NW/Triad, so have held highs on the low side of guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 155 AM Wednesday... 1) Continued very hot today, and Thu now looks almost as warm for much of the area. 2) We'll enter a wet pattern starting Thu afternoon, with above normal rain chances expected into the middle of next week. A wedge setup will lead to cooler temps Fri, particularly in the Piedmont. && .DISCUSSION... As of 155 AM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued very hot today, and Thu now looks almost as warm for much of the area. We'll see at least one more day of hot temperatures today, as persistence rules, given little to no change in the overall pattern. Confidence remains quite high that we'll see continued anomalously hot weather, as strong ridging near the surface through the mid levels persists, including 500 mb heights and 850 mb temps in the 95th-99th percentile according to the HREF. Low level thicknesses hold around 20 m above normal today, favoring highs once again in the low-mid 90s, with isolated upper 90s. We'll still see a lowering of dewpoints with deep mixing, such that apparent temps will hold under 100F, however the Heat Risk will again be at level 2 of 4 (Moderate), with isolated patches of level 3 of 4 (High), indicating highly anomalous heat that could lead to heat illnesses, especially for more sensitive or vulnerable populations. And the intense sunshine and a generally light breeze will again elevate the WBGT index. As such, in addition to frequent water breaks, spending time resting in the shade is encouraged, especially for those working or exercising outdoors. We still expect a backdoor front to approach our northern border Thu, however the models continue a gradual slowing trend, with the front making slow progress through our northern tier of counties during the mid to late afternoon. This will allow much of the area S of the front (including areas along and S of Hwy 64) to heat up, given the still-high low level thicknesses near 15 m above normal, although the development of convective clouds in the afternoon (along with late-day showers and a few storms) should keep temps under today's highs. Expect highs from the low-mid 80s near the VA border ranging to the low 90s in our far S. KEY MESSAGE 2... We'll enter a wet pattern starting Thu afternoon, with above normal rain chances expected into the middle of next week. A wedge setup will lead to cooler temps Fri, particularly in the Piedmont. First, regarding temps Fri, the front will settle along the southern and eastern edges of the CWA Thu night, with cool high pressure nosing in from the north as its center shifts from the N Great Lakes across New England and just off the Northeast coast. This source high is fairly strong, ~1035 mb over SE Quebec by late Fri night, with current surface dewpoints in the 40s at its core. And it will be briefly anchored by confluent flow followed by a building narrow ridge aloft, which will favor a CAD event with wedging down through the Piedmont Fri. Have leaned closer to the NBM10Pct and mean statistical guidance for Fri highs across the N and W Piedmont, yielding highs in the upper 60s to around 70 from INT/GSO to TDF/HNZ, mid-upper 70s from Albemarle through the Triangle region to Rocky Mount, and low-mid 80s across the SE CWA. Temps might need to be tweaked downward in our far NW on Sat and even Sun as well, if models continue to indicate a stubborn cool/stable pool lingering over the Piedmont. Regarding rain chances, while the details remain murky, we're confident that we're entering a wet spell with fairly high rain chances overall for several days, although not every spot will see rain each day. Showers and scattered storms are expected to develop along the front across the N starting Thu afternoon, then this precip should settle south with the front through Thu night. The breakdown of our current mid level ridge will allow for an increasingly weakly-perturbed mid level SW flow from N Mexico across TX and the Mid South across NC, providing shots of mid level DPVA acting on PW values of 125-200% of normal, along with persistent deep low level moist isentropic upglide at 295-305K sourced from both the Gulf and Atlantic. At the surface, the front will eventually lift north (perhaps delayed by a lingering stable pool in the Triad), placing us in a warm sector in flow from the S and SW for multiple days. Locally briefly heavy rain totals are possible especially late Thu into Thu night, as strengthening SW 850 mb flow and increasing ascent along the front could lead to isolated heavier rain and propagating cells on the SW side of convection. The overall CAPE and deep layer bulk shear will be on the low end through this weekend, thus no severe weather is expected. With this persistent long and wavy SW flow from N Mexico into the Carolinas combined with high low-level moisture flux from the Gulf and Atlantic through the weekend and into early next week, our rain chances are expected to remain above normal, peaking each afternoon and evening Fri through at least Tue. While this would put a damper on the long holiday weekend, it would be a welcome respite from our ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions are generally expected across central NC over the 24 hour TAF period. While patchy fog can't be completely ruled out early this morning in the far SE (including FAY), current surface observations show only a couple sites near the southern NC coast are reporting reduced visibilities. Satellite imagery also depicts less coverage of fog compared to last night at this time, and model guidance (including the HREF, HRRR and RAP) is less bullish for fog. So opted to leave out mention in the FAY TAF, but it can't be totally ruled out in the far SE. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear with S/SW winds in the 5-10 kt range. Outlook: Flight restrictions will return on Thursday as a cold front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms along with gusty NE winds to the region. Sub-VFR ceilings also look to persist into Friday in the Triad and potentially RDU as a CAD regime looks to set up over the region. Daily shower/storm chances will also be possible through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 May 22: KFAY: 73/2004 May 23: KFAY: 72/2011 May 24: KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000 May 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019 May 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield AVIATION...Danco/Helock CLIMATE...RAH  962 FXUS63 KLBF 200555 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1255 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances increase Wednesday and then again Thursday night into Friday. Some decent rainfall amounts, possibly over one- half inch are possible in spots. - A warming trend is then expected through the weekend. Highs will climb from the 70s Sunday into the 80s Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure will settle southward across Minnesota and Iowa tonight into Wednesday morning. Aloft, southwest flow will be dominate across the region ahead of a shortwave crossing the Intermountain West. Have issued a frost advisory for portions of north central Nebraska late tonight till just after sunrise Wednesday morning. This area will be the last to see an increase in cloudiness as the shortwave approaches the area late tonight. The increase in cloud should keep the rest of the area in the mid to upper 30s and frost free. As mentioned, clouds will increase, and will be a cloudy day Wednesday. Rain chances will also be on the increase. As the shortwave trough approaches from the west, mid-level WAA will be on the increase. An area of mid-level FGEN also develops, and should see a northeast to southwest band of light to perhaps briefly moderate rain develop in the morning and then begin to decrease by later in the afternoon as the FGEN weakens. As for amounts, fairly high probabilities of one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch. This would most favor southwest Nebraska. Skies clear some as the shortwave moves east of the area Wednesday night. At this time, looks like temperatures will remain above any frost potential. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The next system is already on the horizon Thursday through Friday. The probability of seeing some decent rainfall amounts is on the increase. This is supported by both the 19/12Z NAM and ECMWF which dig a negatively tilted trough farther southward into Colorado Thursday night, and then pivots northeastward across the Central Plains Friday. Looking at the various ensemble suites, confidence is high in much of the area receiving at least one-quarter of an inch, with some locations likely to exceed one-half inch of rainfall. System weakens across the area Saturday with a subtle upper trough still located over the area. Lingering cloud cover and a few isolated showers will start the Memorial Day weekend. Ridging aloft then builds across the area Sunday into Monday with a couple of very nice days expected Sunday into Monday. In fact, will become quite warm by Monday, as highs climb from the lower 80s Sunday and into mid and upper 80s Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the first half of the period with degraded conditions for late morning Wednesday. Mid and high level clouds continue to stream in to southwest Nebraska but should pose little if any impact initially. Through the night, CIGs should lower as a disturbance approaches from the west. This should lead to increasing precipitation chances and MVFR CIGs. Leaned on HREF guidance for timing into LBF terminal which favors mid to late morning. Activity should remain light enough intensity to preclude more significant impacts. Expect precipitation to depart by late afternoon with a return to VFR conditions likely. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ006-007-009- 010-028-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...NMJ  975 FXUS64 KMOB 200555 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1255 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Rain chances increase throughout the week, especially over the western half of the forecast area. - Localized patchy dense fog will be possible late tonight into Thursday morning and late Thursday night into Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Light southerly surface winds will occur through the remainder of the week as a surface ridge remains intact across the southeast states and northeast Gulf. Atmospheric moisture will remain moderate with PWATs generally ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. A continuous stream of upper mini-shortwaves moving over the lower Mississippi river in a deep southwesterly flow will result in a steady increase in shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the week, with the highest chances of precipitation occurring along and west of I-65. Isolated to low-end scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon across our inland areas, followed by isolated to scattered showers and storms, potentially numerous over southeast Mississippi, for Thursday. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are then expected Friday and Saturday, again with the highest chances occurring along and west of I-65. The light southerly wind flow mentioned earlier persisting all week does maintain some boundary-layer moisture across our area that should result in patchy to areas of late night/early morning fog over the course of the week. Visibilities are expected to lower to between 1 to 3 miles across much of the area late overnight into early morning, with patchy dense fog not being ruled out. Due to low confidence in the specific locations potentially being impacted by areas of dense fog, we will just need to see how thing unfold before needing any Dense Fog Advisories. High temperatures inland will reach the middle 80s to lower 90s today and Thursday. These highs will be about 3 to 6 degrees above normal. Due to the increase in clouds and rain chances Friday and Saturday, highs will return closer to normal values. Lows however will remain steady through Saturday with upper 60s to lower 70s inland and middle 70s along the coast. These lows will be about 6 to 11 degrees above normal. /22 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate this evening to IFR mainly along the I-10 corridor. Further north, conditions should remain VFR as high clouds from thunderstorms to our west move over the area. Some localized fog could temporary reduce visibilities mainly along the I-10 corridor and into interior southcentral Alabama. MVFR to VFR conditions should return during the morning with isolated to scattered showers and storms developing across inland Alabama and inland Mississippi during the afternoon. Temporary reductions in visibilities and ceilings could be possible with the strongest of storms. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 88 71 86 72 / 10 10 40 40 Pensacola 87 73 86 74 / 10 0 20 20 Destin 85 74 85 75 / 10 0 10 10 Evergreen 91 69 90 69 / 30 20 30 10 Waynesboro 88 69 87 70 / 40 30 60 50 Camden 89 69 88 69 / 20 30 50 30 Crestview 91 68 90 69 / 20 0 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  987 FXUS62 KCHS 200555 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 155 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All Key Messages and sections were updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Areas of fog, locally dense, are possible across the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia this morning. - 2) Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of fog, locally dense, are possible across the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia this morning. Low-level moisture appears to be a tad deeper compared to the past few mornings with higher 1000 hPa condensation pressure deficits noted. The risk for shallow fog will increase over the next few hours as the boundary layer decouples and radiational cooling maximizes. With slightly favorable fog parameters in place, shallow fog layers could thicken a bit more than what has been experienced over the past few mornings resulting in a bit more in the way of meaningful fog and lower visibilities. The fog that does form could be locally dense at times with visibilities dropping to 1/4 NM or less at times, especially near bodies of water and other low-lying areas such as marshes, swamps and large ditches. The area from Reidsville to Townsend north to Hampton, Beaufort and Walterboro, including parts of the Savannah Metro Area, looks to be the corridor of most concern for more meaningful fog development through daybreak. The need for a Special Weather Statement or even a Dense Fog Advisory will be reassessed as the early morning progresses. KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. The area will remain along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well defined Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low positioned near 29N/75W at 20/06z. Broad subsidence aloft along the western flanks of the TUTT will continue to reside over the area through tonight with subtropical ridging progged to hold aloft across much of the Southeast States. The TUTT is forecast to slowly weaken and remain well offshore as the it propagates west/northwest along the backside of the Subtropical Anticyclone meandering near Bermuda. The net result will be a continuation of warm, rain-free conditions with some high clouds spreading in at times. Low-level thicknesses are progged to max out about 10-30 meters higher than Tuesday as subsidence aloft builds. Highs are poised to warm into the lower-mid 90s inland with upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches. Temperatures across the coastal counties will remain what somewhat tempered as another robust, pure sea breeze circulation propagates steadily inland through the afternoon. Similar to the past few nights, it will take until the early morning hours Thursday before the boundary fully decouples and influences from the afternoon sea breeze wane. Lows will range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. Low- level moisture profiles and 1000 hPa condensation pressure deficits do not look as favorable for fog development compared to this morning, but some shallow ground fog appears likely, especially away from the immediate coast. Upper level ridging lingers across the southeastern CONUS Thursday, as a sfc cold front stalls out along the Tennessee River Valley. As such, should see largely dry conditions prevail across our area, with highs forecast to rise into the lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. Will see the aforementioned cold front sag southward over the Carolinas by Friday, causing the upper level ridge to shift over the Atlantic. While the exact position ofthe front and how far south it progresses will be the key factor in determining rainfall coverage and amounts, current trends continue to favor a strong Atlantic ridge. This would keep the front displaced just to our west and north, and thus limit our chances for seeing meaningful rainfall. Ensemble guidance continues to follow this trend as well, with probabilities for seeing rainfall greater than an inch through Saturday remaining less than 25%. So, while trends currently favor a drier, less impactful event, still encourage folks to monitor the latest forecast as subtle shifts in track may still occur. Otherwise, expect the severe potential with any shower/storm to remain low, given the lack of forcing and moisture in place. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 20/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/JZI: The risk for fog will increase through daybreak. It is not exactly clear how significant any fog will become with the better fog parameters forecast to remain west and southwest of both terminals; however, guidance is trending lower with vsbys and the 06z TAFs will reflect this trend. Prevailing vsbys were limited to low-end MVFR at both terminals with TEMPO groups dropping right to alternate minimums at KCHS and just below alternate minimums at KJZI. The fog will likely remain somewhat shallow so cig establishment is not expected. The fog will quickly mix out after daybreak with conditions quickly returning to VFR by 13z. VFR will then prevail for the remainder of the 06z TAF period. KSAV: The risk for fog will increase through daybreak. The terminal looks to be positioned the area of most favorable fog parameters, but it remains unclear how low vsbys will go given low-level moisture still remains fairly shallow. Expect MVFR vsbys by 09z with prevailing conditions dropping to alternate minimums by 10z. Opted for a TEMPO group for 1/2SM BR BKN003 with the anticipation of some pockets of dense fog occurring. The fog will quickly mix out after daybreak with conditions quickly returning to VFR by 13z. VFR will then prevail for the remainder of the 06z TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist with the region positioned along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. East/southeast winds will prevail with speeds less than 15 kt, although some local enhancement along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor will likely occur with the sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Thursday through Sunday: No marine concerns are expected. High pressure to the east will drive onshore east-southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 feet through the period. Rip Currents: A lingering 9 sec, 2-3 ft swell will keep a moderate rip current risk in place for all beaches through this evening. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  106 FXUS62 KMFL 200557 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 157 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 156 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through this evening. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are the main threats. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all urban areas through the end of the week. Heat indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The pattern will remain generally unchanged through the short term period, with an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf and over the peninsula and an upper level low meandering over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters, extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining some moisture advection near the surface. However, overnight observations from the 00Z MFL sounding and ACARS flights at KMIA show a pocket of drier air intruding near the mid-levels. Water vapor imagery suggests this is dry air being pulled southward along the western periphery of the upper level low currently east of the Bahamas, and model guidance supports a continuation of this phenomenon at least through Thursday. In fact, most modeled PWATs within the ensemble guidance envelope are trending below average for this time of year, really highlighting the shift from conditions earlier in the week. With prevailing easterly flow and some low-level moisture still in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries over interior/southwest FL each afternoon. However, with drier air aloft and weak forcing and steering, any activity that develops should be transient and sub-severe in nature, with occasional lightning and some gusty winds the main impacts. Some spots could get half an inch to an inch of rain, but otherwise the risk of localized flooding remains low at this time. Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), with heat indices peaking in the mid 90s across the East Coast, and up into the triple digits across southwest FL. Warm overnight temperatures, especially across the East Coast, will impede much in the way of relief, especially for any vulnerable communities. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 156 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern aloft across the southeast CONUS through the end of the week. The upper low over the western Atlantic will begin to dissolve and high pressure ridging over the Gulf will shift eastward over the Florida peninsula. Pressure heights will increase slightly across the region heading into next week, with a new H5 centroid positioning itself over north Florida by Sunday afternoon. Pressure heights will generally be in the 588 dm to 592 dm range through the period, which are within the upper quartile for this time of year. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will keep the easterly wind regime through the middle of next week. This pattern will continue to advect some waves of higher moisture, where PWATs may climb up to 1.8 inches. But for the most part, precipitable water content will generally remain about average at 1.4 to 1.5 inches. Models are not showing as clear cut of a middle dry layer, but ridging aloft should contribute to some mid-level subsidence and suppression of stronger storm activity. Overall, with easterly flow prevailing, the highest chances for afternoon storm activity will focus along the Gulf breeze over interior and southwest Florida each afternoon. Temperatures will trend slightly higher for the weekend and towards the beginning of next week. Maximum temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the Atlantic coast to the mid 90s in southwest Florida. Heat indices will climb into the mid 100s for parts of Collier and Monroe counties. At this time, Heat Advisories look unlikely, but the NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool continues to show increased chances (40% to 50%) of Major HeatRisk. These conditions will affect anyone without proper hydration or cooling. Some guidance is also showing that overnight lows may stay quite warm across the east coast metros, with temperatures only dropping to upper 70s and low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the period. Easterly- southwesterly winds prevail, with the potential for SHRA/TSRA present at KAPF. AT KAPF, a Gulf breeze is forecast to develop in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Generally benign boating conditions will prevail as alight to moderate easterly breeze persists across the local waters. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day, but will favor the Gulf waters under this easterly wind regime. Gustier winds and rough seas are possible in and around thunderstorm activity. && .BEACHES... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Strong onshore flow will continue to promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 78 89 79 / 20 20 10 10 West Kendall 89 74 90 75 / 20 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 89 77 90 78 / 20 20 10 10 Homestead 88 76 89 77 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 86 79 87 79 / 20 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 86 78 87 78 / 20 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 90 78 91 79 / 20 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 86 78 88 79 / 20 10 20 10 Boca Raton 86 78 87 79 / 20 10 10 10 Naples 91 74 91 76 / 70 30 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....NMP AVIATION...ATV  155 FXUS63 KGRR 200559 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 159 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief Window For Showers and Storms this Afternoon - Dry and Cooler Wednesday into Thursday, Frost Possible - Showers and Storms Return Friday into Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Brief Window For Showers and Storms this Afternoon Thunderstorms have developed east of a Kalamazoo to Lansing line. It is in this area where surface based CAPE is highest (1500 to 2000 J/kg) with shear values around 35 knots. This is also in the area of better moisture convergence. Downdraft CAPE values are also around 1000 J/kg. With these factors strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through 5pm with damaging winds as the primary risk and small hail as the secondary. As we head into the evening our instability and shear move east with dry conditions moving in behind the cold front. - Dry and Cooler Wednesday into Thursday, Frost Possible High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid 50s to 60s. Within this cooler air mass frost is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning mainly for inland and northern portions of the forecast area. There is a 20 percent chance that areas along and north of US-10 for temperatures at or below freezing. If winds stay in the 5 to 15 mph range overnight, frost would not be a concern. - Showers and Storms Return Friday into Saturday Low level moisture returns ahead of a shortwave trough expected to move through Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This will bring another round of showers and storms to the area with drier conditions trending for the rest of the weekend into next week. There is decent agreement as seen in the cluster analysis with most members keeping the area dry with temperatures warming up again into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 159 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 A cold front has progressed through all of the TAF sites as we approach 06z with west to northwest winds now prevailing. Main post frontal concern is the extent of MVFR ceilings that may develop the remainder of the night. At this point, JXN is the only TAF site with a MVFR ceiling. We do think that there will be some expansion of the MVFR ceilings early this morning especially south and east of GRR. These lower ceilings may persist through the morning hours. This afternoon and evening VFR weather is expected. Northwest winds at 5-15 knots will veer to the north and northeast this afternoon and this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Winds and waves will gradually come down this evening with some isolated Small Craft Advisory gusts through the overnight. If winds trend lower the Small Craft Advisory could end earlier. A brief period of northerly Small Craft Advisory winds and 4 foot waves is possible Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, easterly winds will keep wave heights down through the remainder of the week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Duke MARINE...RAH  156 FXUS64 KJAN 200559 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1259 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will need to be monitored for the next several days. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 806 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through tonight... Broad scale ascent, combined with deep moisture and Theta E advection/convergence, is leading to scattered showers and storms across the area. Majority of the convection has struggled and been more of the pulse variety. Any storms that take some northerly propagation the most favorably aligned to the light southerly mean low level bulk shear. Water vapor imagery indicate a broad mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) over the east to southeast TX, which is driving the moist advection into the southeast propagating cold pool. This is keeping continued storm activity, with the highest coverage of colliding boundaries west of the MS River while more isolated coverage to the east. Convective allowing models (CAMs) continue to indicate this will sag to the east-southeast through around midnight, leading to some storms festering through that period. REFS thunder probs persist but continue to go downward after midnight to 1AM, so convection should only be weakening showers as it approaches the Interstate 55 corridor, if that. Lows will be seasonably warm, with some patchy visibility reductions in the Pine Belt and some low stratus overnight through just after daybreak. Updates were shipped out earlier. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 In the near term, the threat for severe weather has diminished some with most guidance showing a more limited shear/thermodynamic environment as a convective system over the ArkLaTex region makes its way toward northwestern portions of our area. The shear/boundary relationship is less than ideal for getting severe weather with this system, however, if storms develop in the increasing low level warm advection during peak ahead of the system, then those storms could move in more favorable direction to take advantage of the low level shear and bring some gusty winds. With all of that said, we've removed the slight risk and trimmed back the marginal risk area some based on the latest guidance. Looking ahead, an unusually long duration of wet weather is setting up for the foreseeable future as a large and persistent trough to ridge longwave pattern sets up over the CONUS. In the big picture, this will bring our region a steady stream of subtropical moisture with seasonably high precipitable water values, and multiple upper level perturbations that will provide lift and help initiate multiple rounds of convective rainfall. Given that precipitation efficiency will be high, we'll need to monitor for potential heavy rainfall threat areas where deep convection can persist the longest. SLU CIPS analogs reveal some heavy rainfall analogs from the historic archives that suggest a flash flood threat could evolve based on our current guidance forecasts, but the details are too uncertain as of now to provide formal messaging. Keep in mind that with each day that accumulates significant rainfall, antecedent conditions will become more favorable for a flood threat. Otherwise, it appears the thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly favorable for severe weather concerns given the deep layer moisture and influence from the southeast CONUS. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Local radars had a band of -SHRA/-TSRA across the cntrl TAF sites at 0530Z. This activity wl become -RA as it stalls over cntrl MS. Away from the TSRA VFR conditions wl prevail until after 08Z when MVFR/IFR cigs wl develop east and se.The northern TAF sites wl remain in VFR until the aftn when isold to sct -TSRA redevelop. The TSRA wl spread into east and se MS by 23Z. The TSRA wl diminish after 01Z Thu but -SHRA wl remain possible through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 85 70 83 / 60 80 60 100 Meridian 69 87 70 84 / 40 50 40 90 Vicksburg 69 84 69 82 / 70 80 70 100 Hattiesburg 69 87 71 84 / 20 60 40 90 Natchez 70 85 71 83 / 60 80 70 90 Greenville 68 82 68 82 / 60 90 90 90 Greenwood 68 84 69 82 / 60 80 80 100 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/EC/22  135 FXUS64 KMRX 200558 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 158 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue today with highs roughly 10 degrees above normal. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected today and into the weekend. A few strong storms are possible today, and perhaps Friday as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Coverage of showers and storms will be greater today due to an increase in forcing thanks to a weak shortwave and frontal boundary moving into the area. HREF mean CAPE values are around 500 to 800 J/kg for most of the area. SPC Day 1 Outlook has a marginal risk in place for northeast TN and our southwest VA counties. This appears warranted as there will be some low-end 0-6km bulk shear across these areas; HREF means generally yield around 20 kts. For this reason, a few strong to severe storms are possible during the late afternoon/evening hours. The main threats will be small hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Models still showing an increase in PW values, around 1.6 to 1.8 inches, on Thursday. Widespread to numerous showers and storms are expected areawide through the day. Due to the moisture increase, some locally to moderate to heavy downpours are expected. The severe threat is lower than Wednesday though due to an absence of shear. A warm, moist southerly flow will continue on Friday. In addition, an area of low pressure will be moving northeast from the lower Mississippi River Valley and into Missouri. This will allow for showers and storms across the region. LREF means show low/moderate instability and low-end 0-6km bulk shear across much of the area. If this occurs, a few strong to severe storms will be possible areawide. Shower and storm chances continue over the weekend and into early next week as we remain in a southwest flow pattern. With an upper trough to our northwest, and high pressure to our southeast, several disturbances will move thorugh the southwest flow and across our region. The environment will continue to be moist and unstable and will support continued chances for showers and storms each day. The primary impacts during this timeframe lightning and locally heavy rainfall. QPF through the next 7 days will widely vary across our area. Some areas will receive several inches of rain and other areas much less. Areas that see repeated showers and storms over numerous days will see the most rainfall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 An unsettled weather pattern begins today. Scattered showers and TS possible, primarily in the late afternoon into early evening hours, PROB30s cover the more probable timeframe. Cannot rule out activity overnight late in the period, though thunder is less likely. A few gusty winds up to 20 knots outside of any TS, primarily at TYS. Outside of storms, VFR skies expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 66 86 66 / 60 40 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 66 84 66 / 40 20 90 50 Oak Ridge, TN 88 64 84 64 / 50 30 90 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 63 82 61 / 30 60 100 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...Wellington