217 FXUS64 KBRO 200600 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 100 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1256 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Key Messages: * Day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected through next weekend and possibly beyond amid a major shift in the weather pattern. * Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible through next weekend. * There is a low-medium chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday morning; greatest chances over the Northern Ranchlands. * The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms with the exception of northern Jim Hogg and Zapata counties which is under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). * The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has our northwestern sections under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Wednesday evening/night and all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk for both Thursday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An increasingly active/wet weather pattern signifying a major pattern change from dry to wet remains the primary weather concern through the forecast period or through early next week. Through tonight and into Wednesday morning, we're tracking trends and the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop as ongoing convection over Central Texas propagates southward along an outflow boundary. As of this update, there remains a low-medium (20- 60%) chance/confidence for showers and thunderstorms to develop and impact our region. As far as timing, the estimated time of arrival for storms is expected to be somewhere between the hours of 3-9 AM CDT Wednesday morning. One of the primary uncertainties is whether or not the MCSs/complexes of storms upstream across Central Texas will maintain it's momentum as it propagates southward through tonight into Wednesday morning. Some of the latest models favors a more eastward placement suggesting that most of the activity will pass to our northeast (i.e. Coastal areas of Corpus Christi) by Wednesday morning with maybe some stratiform showers/isolated thunder developing along or immediately behind the outflow boundary. Capping and the time of day could also serve as limiting factors in the magnitude of storms, especially further south along the Rio Grande Valley. That said, the best chances are across the Rio Grande Plains and the Northern Ranchlands tonight through Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms though tonight into Wednesday morning for all of Deep South Texas with the exception of northern Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties, which are under a Slight Risk. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been applied to northern Brooks, jim Hogg, and Zapata counties. We'll continue to monitor trends through tonight and update as necessary. Wednesday through early next week, day-to-day or near day-to-day rain chances is expected. Driving this active pattern is an active southwest flow aloft sub-tropical jet in which multiple impulses/shortwave energies tracking over the Sierra Madre, and a nearby frontal boundary to our north. Persistent southerly flow near the sfc will continue to pool in deep tropical moisture helping to maintain high atmospheric water content through early next week. This is justified with sample maximum precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.80-2.50 inches, some 1-3 STDEVs above normal and above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for mid to late May. Furthermore, high instability values will be present through this week with steep mid level lapse rates between 6.5-8.0 C/km, SBCAPE values between 2,000-4,000 J/kg, MLCAPE values between 1,000-2,000 J/kg, a moderately to very unstable atmosphere with Showalter values ranging between -2 and -6. All in all, the combination of a favorable mid-upper level 500 mb steering pattern, high atmospheric moisture content, and high instability will support a noticeable change to a wetter/active weather pattern through the remainder of this week and possibly beyond. The best chances for rain this week looks to be on Thursday and then again over the weekend (i.e. Friday night through Sunday). Wednesday evening/night, 30-50% PoPs exist primarily along and west of IH-69C/US-281. Thursday-Thursday night, 30-60% chances exists with widespread categorical chances (50-60%) for showers and thunderstorms exists during the day on Thursday, and over the Northern Ranchlands and areas along and west of IH-69C/US-281. Meanwhile, 30-50% chances exists over the mid-lower Rio Grande Valley on Thursday. Friday night through Sunday, PoPs range between 40-70%. Additional chances (to a lower extent; between 20-50%) exists through early next week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the atmospheric and forcing ingredients highlighted above. However, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat. Given the high atmospheric moisture content available, heavy rainfall and instances of flooding is possible through next weekend. This is especially true for slow moving thunderstorms that repeatedly track over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has our northwestern section (i.e. Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and northwestern Brooks) under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday Night and all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for both Thursday and Saturday. Through Saturday, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) or rainfall amounts are still expected to range between 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The rain to come will certainly prove to be beneficial, helping to further improve the D1 (Moderate) to D2 (Severe) Drought status across the region. Temperature-wise, the combination of the heat ridge relaxing and day-to-day storm chances will allow for temperatures to run near normal levels for late May. Through early next week, high temperatures will generally range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will run slightly above normal with readings mainly in the 70s (lower 80s Cameron County and over SPI). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Breezy winds can be expected during the daylight hours, with lighter winds at night. An elongated line of showers and thunderstorms is currently slowly working south through central Texas, and future amendments to the TAFS may been to be made closer to sunrise this morning if this convection sustains and approaches the aerodromes from the north. && .MARINE... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions will persist through Thursday evening. Friday through early next week, moderate seas along with light to moderate winds are expected. Daily or near daily shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 50 20 HARLINGEN 92 76 90 75 / 20 20 50 30 MCALLEN 93 77 91 77 / 20 30 50 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 74 90 74 / 40 50 60 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 80 85 81 / 20 10 40 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 78 89 78 / 20 10 50 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$  373 FXUS61 KAKQ 200602 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 202 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation section for the 00z TAFs Lowered high temperatures slightly on Thursday and Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and dry conditions continue through much of the day tomorrow. A strong cold front will bring the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area later tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. 2) Cooler and more unsettled conditions Thursday and especially Friday in the wake of the front. Cool and unsettled conditions may continue through much of the Holiday Weekend as the front lingers near the area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and dry conditions continue through much of the day tomorrow. A strong cold front will bring the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area later tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. High pressure remains centered well offshore leading to continued warm S-SW flow across the area this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed into the low-mid 90s for most locations away from the immediate coast. Near-record highs are possible this afternoon, with the best chance for a record high at Richmond. Remaining mild tonight with lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s. Highs on Wednesday will again range from the mid to upper 90s inland to the lower 90s closer to the coast. By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms are expected to develop, focusing along the pre- frontal trough to our northwest. Model trends continue to slow the arrival of the cold front, lagging into later Wednesday evening across the north, and Thursday morning south of US-460 into NE NC. 12z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through much of Wednesday evening. SPC has maintained a Day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for the northern half of the forecast area with the afternoon update. The risk of severe storms still looks marginal locally, with the better instability and forcing located to our N/NW. Still think there is a decent potential storms may begin to dissipate by the time they reach the local area. Still, a few stronger to severe storms remain possible, especially for areas north of Richmond and over to the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with any stronger storms, though an isolated instance of large hail cannot be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler and more unsettled conditions Thursday and especially Friday in the wake of the front. Cool and unsettled conditions may continue through much of the Holiday Weekend as the front lingers near the area. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada late Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south of the area Thursday. The cold front then settles south of the area and stalls over the Carolinas on Friday. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values allow rain chances to ramp up quickly late Thursday and Thursday night, leaving an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup for Friday, with highs in the 60s to 70s forecast. Still some uncertainty with respect to the cool air/CAD wedge setup as we head into the weekend. There are some indications that the airmass may linger through much of Saturday (and potentially Sunday) before a warm front slowly lifts over the area and the CAD airmass erodes. The front then likely gets hung up over northern portions of the area and lingers into early next week. This will lead to the potential for continued unsettled conditions throughout the holiday weekend and cooler temperatures than currently in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. Gradual warming is expected heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/20 TAF period. Clear or mostly clear skies are forecast for the bulk of the forecast period, with clouds increasing from the NW late this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. There's a low- end chance for showers/storms to impact RIC/SBY late in the period, with chances remain much too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time. Rain chances increase at RIC/SBY after 00z/8pm this evening into early Thu morning. SW winds ~10kt through the period, with occasional gusts to 20 kt through this afternoon. Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible starting early Thu morning as a cold front brings showers and isolated storms to the local area. An unsettled pattern will likely bring additional restrictions through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through Wednesday with primarily S-SW winds. - A front crosses the waters Thursday morning, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions from Thursday through Friday due to NE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. High pressure will remain anchored near Bermuda through Wednesday, while a cold front slowly approaches from the north (but the front will remain north of the waters through Wednesday evening). Current marine wind obs indicate S-SW winds of 10-15 kt. Winds will increase to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on the bay this evening-early tonight (and 15-20 kt w/ 25 kt gusts on the ocean). Winds diminish back to 10-15 kt by late tonight, and remain in that range through Wed with the stagnant pattern. Will likely see a few 20 kt gusts on the bay late Wed aftn-Wed evening. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds behind it. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt from Thursday through Friday. SCAs appear likely for portions of the bay (due to winds) and coastal waters N of the VA-NC border (due to seas building to 5-6 ft behind the front). Local wind probabilities show a relatively high (60-90%) chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the middle/lower bay from Thu-Fri. Winds diminish and become more variable this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes some. While the GFS still has 10-20 kt NE winds over the weekend, it is an outlier at this time. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) through Wednesday, with a low risk elsewhere. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk. && .CLIMATE... As of 950 PM EDT Tuesday... Tue 5/19: Richmond tied a record high min (71), and SBY also tied the record high min (70). No record high highs were set or tied. Another day of near-record to record- breaking heat is expected today, both for record highs and record high minimum temperatures. See below for reference.Record High Temps for Wed 5/20: Record High/Year Location 5/20 -------- ---- Richmond 97 (2022) Norfolk 98 (1996) Salisbury 98 (1911) Eliz. City 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for Wed 5/20: Record High Min T/Year Location 5/20 -------- ---- Richmond 71 (2018) Norfolk 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM AVIATION...AC/MAM MARINE...ERI CLIMATE...LKB/MAM  447 FXUS61 KALY 200605 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 205 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Areal coverage of showers associated with incoming cold front for today continues to decrease. Also, severe threat has shifted even farther south, with any Marginal Risk area remaining south of the ALY forecast area for today. Models continue to disagree on the handling of precip for this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered showers remain possible today with incoming cold front. A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible across the mid Hudson Valley, western MA and NW CT late this morning through mid afternoon. 2) A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected Thursday into Friday with the next chance for a widespread rainfall over the weekend, although the exact timing, duration and amount of rainfall is still uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Incoming cold front tracks east/southeast across the region this morning through mid afternoon. Limited instability and upper level forcing should keep shower coverage isolated to scattered for most areas, with some areas receiving little or no rainfall today. Closer to I-84 including the mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, NW CT and the Berkshires, there might be just enough instability (MU CAPE generally 500-750 J/kg) for a few thunderstorms. However, overall limited instability should keep any thunderstorms below severe limits. For areas near and north of I-90, the isolated to scattered showers should occur mainly this morning, though a couple of passing showers/sprinkles could linger into late afternoon/evening. South of I-90, showers/thunderstorms are expected late this morning through mid afternoon. The front will slow down south of the region tonight as a weak wave of low pressure tracks along it. This may allow showers to linger well into the night close to I-84, with some showers possibly persisting into Thursday morning in these areas before ending. KEY MESSAGE 2... In the wake of the cold front, a return to seasonably cool conditions is expected. In fact, low temperatures Thursday night may drop into the lower/mid 30s across portions of the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, the Lake George/Saratoga region and souther VT. As of May 21, the growing season will be underway in all portions of the Albany forecast area, including the southern Adirondacks. Some frost advisories may be issued for portions of these areas for Thursday night, with other areas dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Models continue to vary regarding potential for rainfall this weekend, with main complication stemming from downstream upper level low across Atlantic Canada, along with disturbances rotating around its western periphery. Depending on the timing and strength of these disturbances, a confluent upper level flow may persist across northern/eastern New England, limiting the north/east extent of stratiform rainfall. As of now, it appears that the best chance for rain on Saturday will be mainly south and west of Albany, with rain chances then slowly increasing from southwest to northeast Saturday night into Sunday. A separate upper level disturbance may bring additional showers for a portion of Monday. Should the aforementioned confluent flow hold on longer, areas north and east of Albany could remain dry for a good portion of the upcoming weekend, while a weaker confluent upper level flow (and more progressive downstream shift of the upper level low/trough) could result in a more widespread rainfall across the region. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06z Thursday...As of 1:15 AM EDT, flying conditions are VFR at all terminals. Generally VFR conditions expected through thenext several hours, although some brief patchy fog/mist can't be ruled out at GFL through the next few hours. Confidence is rather low, so have not included IFR conditions in the TAF, but IFR vsbys possible if fog develops. Otherwise, increasing mid-level clouds expected towards sunrise ahead of an approaching cold front. This front could result in a few showers developing with brief MVFR vsby reductions this morning, but coverage of showers will be isolated at best. Best chance for a brief shower with MVFR vsby reductions is at POU. Behind the cold front, mid-level clouds scatter out but high clouds remain SCT to BKN through the end of the TAF period with prevailing VFR conditions. Winds will be at around 5 kt or less through the remainder of the overnight period. Will note that LLWS was added for all terminals with 35-40 kt low-level jet overhead through shortly after sunrise. Winds this morning switch to the W/SW at 5-10 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt, strengthening to 10-15 kt from the west with gusts up to 25-30 kt (strongest at ALB/PSF) through the afternoon and evening. Gusts generally diminish after sunset this evening, with winds veering to the NW at 5-10 kt through 06z Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27/24 AVIATION...35  441 FXUS64 KBMX 200604 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 104 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 102 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026 - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week, with the greatest chance for heavy rainfall in northwest areas. - Muggy conditions and high temperatures will create a minor to moderate daily heat risk across Central Alabama. && .DISCUSSION... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing off to our west ahead of an approaching cold front. CAMs continue to hint at this activity dissipating as it nears the MS/AL stateline. If any of this activity does make it into the area, it will be across our northwest areas. The aforementioned front will stall across the state tomorrow and linger through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft will guide several H5 impulses through the region. This will lead to elevated chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. Each day will feature diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. The majority of this activity will be pulse-like storms as shear profiles are not too impressive. Greatest chances each day will be across our northern areas where low level moisture convergence will be maximized along the stalled boundary. The boundary retreats back to the north over the weekend, leaving a plume of moist air in place across the region. Bouts of H5 energy will continue to stream across the southeast, leading to increased chances for showers and storms daily. Select forecast soundings depict a nearly saturated atmospheric column and a deep warm cloud depth. This would help promote periods of heavy rainfall at times. Rainfall amounts have trended up recently with 2-3" forecast across our northwest areas. Areas back to our southeast will see around 1" or less. With that said, pockets of higher amounts are likely, especially if these storms turn into efficient rainfall producers. Latest LREF guidance suggests a low (20-30%) chance for amounts over 3". Increased cloud cover will knock a few degrees off our highs for the rest of the week with temperatures generally settling into the mid 80s daily. Those across our southeastern areas will remain near 90. Lows look to fall into the mid 60s for most. Muggy and warm conditions will lead to a minor to moderate heat risk daily across Central Alabama. This would primarily affect those who are extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the 24 forecast. Light and variable winds tonight ahead of our next system will become south- southwest 5-10kts during the day. A moderate chance for showers is anticipated for Wednesday afternoon as convection will move in/develop ahead of a surface boundary. Only confident enough to mention TS for AUB in the afternoon, will hold off at the other terminals for now with only an SHRA mention. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A stalled cold front and continued bouts of upper level energy will keep rain chances elevated through the end of the week. MinRH values will generally remain over 50% daily. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 64 84 64 / 60 50 70 70 Anniston 86 64 84 65 / 60 50 50 50 Birmingham 87 67 85 67 / 20 50 60 60 Tuscaloosa 87 68 86 68 / 20 50 60 70 Calera 89 66 86 66 / 20 40 50 50 Auburn 89 68 87 68 / 50 30 30 20 Montgomery 89 68 88 68 / 40 40 30 20 Troy89 68 88 67 / 50 40 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...08  430 FXUS65 KTFX 200603 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1203 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front brings a round of scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms today, mostly over central and north- central Montana. - This activity will transition to general areas of rain and mountain snow as it moves into southwest Montana tonight into Thursday morning. - The precipitation decreases in coverage by Thursday afternoon,with much warmer and drier conditions moving in for most if not all of the holiday weekend. - An approaching cold front will bring breezy to windy conditions and increased shower and thunderstorm activity Monday into Tuesday followed by a period of cooler temperatures, mountain snow, and lower elevation rain. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Scattered showers over the plains have continued well into the evening hours despite the loss of diurnal heating. The biggest concern with these showers have been localized gusty winds, with a top wind gust of 50 mph reported near the Big Sandy area. Northwesterly flow aloft will maintain these isolated showers through around 1 or 2 AM. Otherwise, the focus shifts to a trough and attendant cold front that will dive southeastward and initiate a round of scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms over north-central and central MT later this morning and afternoon. Cooler surface temperatures with ML CAPE struggling to reach a couple hundred J/kg will reduce the overall impact from this activity, though isolated instances gusty winds over 40 mph, small hail/graupel, and productive downpours will be present with the stronger cores. The forcing from the trough pushes this activity into southwest MT tonight into Thursday morning, with H700 temperatures falling to around -5C and supporting accumulating snow down to 6000 ft. Snow impacts for Thursday morning look to the be greatest over the higher terrain of Madison and Gallatin counties and will mostly be in the form of cold and wet outdoor conditions. Temperatures will run a few degrees below average on Thursday before weak ridging aloft warms things up heading into the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will be strong enough to mix gusty winds to the surface Sunday and Monday while temperatures warm well into the 70s and 80s. The next trough and cold front will usher in a more unstable southwesterly flow aloft early next week for increased shower and thunderstorm activity and more breezy to windy conditions, windiest over southwest MT. Some storms may become strong to severe depending on the troughs's timing, strength and whether it undergoes shearing or splitting. Note that closed lows such as this one often run a little slower than model guidance. This may result in hotter and drier weather on Monday if the cold front runs late and arrives on Tuesday. There will be at least a period of cooler temperatures and more widespread precipitation/mountain snow on the backside of this system heading towards mid-week, particularly if the main circulation stays close enough to exert a stronger influence over the Northern Rockies. - RCG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Today's showers and thunderstorms will transition to areas of rain and mountain snow tonight into Thursday morning... Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms develop over central and north-centrtal MT by the late morning hours. This activity will bring more productive rainfall than those of the last couple of days. Although severe weather is not expected with the cooler temperatures behind the front, there may be localized instances of gusty winds over 40 mph, small hail or graupel, and heavy downpours over a quarter inch with the stronger cores. This activity will expand in coverage and become more stratiform as it slides southward into southwest MT tonight into Thursday morning. H700 temperatures falling to around -4 to -7C combined with lingering convective processes may drop snow levels as low as 5000 ft at times, though accumulating snow looks to primarily be confined to areas above 6000 to 6500 ft and even higher. Snowfall amounts look to be most significant over the northern portions of the Madison/Gallatin ranges where the probabilities for 3 inches of snow or more are currently running above 70% tonight through Thursday morning. Other mountain areas of the southwest, along the Continental Divide, and over the central island ranges will generally see trace amounts up to around an inch or two on the high end. Overall, cold and wet outdoor recreation will be the primary impact with this system. Total rainfall/liquid equivalent amounts will generally range between a tenth to a quarter inch for most lower elevation locations with a sharp decreasing gradient to just a few hundreths or so along the Hi-Line and the drier southwest valleys along and west of I15. Of course rainfall amounts in excess of a half inch will be more common for areas over and near higher terrain. Precipitation diminishes and becomes more scattered in nature by Thursday afternoon. - RCG && .AVIATION... 20/06z TAF Period An upper level disturbance moving over the Northern Rockies will spread precipitation from north to south across North Central through Southwest Montana, with VFR CIGS falling to MVFR/low-VFR between 15-21z Wednesday and then persisting through the remainder of the 2006/2106 TAF period. While terminals will predominately see light rain or rain showers the KGTF, KLWT, and KHLN terminals have the best opportunity for an isolated thunderstorms; however, even these chances were to low to mention. Mountain obscuration will begin to increase between 09-15z Wednesday. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 56 36 60 37 / 90 60 20 0 CTB 54 33 62 37 / 70 20 10 0 HLN 63 36 61 37 / 60 90 20 0 BZN 61 33 56 31 / 30 90 50 0 WYS 56 28 51 23 / 20 90 40 0 DLN 61 33 58 32 / 10 80 30 0 HVR 61 34 65 35 / 50 10 20 0 LWT 56 33 55 33 / 80 60 40 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  521 FXUS65 KBOI 200606 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1206 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry with temperatures warming through Friday. - Well above normal temperatures over Memorial Day Weekend. Gusty winds and a few mountain showers on Memorial Day. - Turning cooler with gusty winds and increasing chance of precipitation starting Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Our region will remain positioned on the western edge of upper level troughing through Thursday. While the focus of organized precipitation will remain to our east, daytime instability will support widespread cumulus buildups over the mountains as seen this afternoon. There's a slight chance that showers could develop from the cumulus field across e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho mtns each afternoon. Localized gusty winds will be possible from showers or more robust cumulus (with or w/o precipitation). Shower chances briefly increase to 15-25% in the w-central Idaho mtns and s-central Idaho zones Wednesday night in response to a passing shortwave trough. Otherwise it's dry and temperatures are on the way up, leaving behind any frost/freeze concerns for the Snake Plain. By Thursday high temperatures will be several degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Western US by the end of this week, bringing generally clear, warm and dry conditions to the region through Monday. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above normal. The ridge will reach peak strength on Sunday, with high temperatures near 90F in the Treasure Valley. By Monday, models indicate that an upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest will begin to increase chances for precipitation. The upper level trough will move inland on Tuesday, with about half of the models showing that the trough will evolve into a closed low over the Pacific NW by Tuesday or Wednesday. In either scenario, temperatures will cool down 10-20 degrees by Tuesday increasing winds and chance of showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance). && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1159 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR. Scattered to broken middle and high clouds. Isolated rain showers in the central Idaho mountains and in southern Twin Falls County after 20Z. Surface winds variable less than 10 kt, becoming WNW 10-20 kt after 20Z. Gusts to 25 kt in the Snake Basin east of KBOI after 20Z. Winds aloft at 10kft NW 15-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Scattered to broken clouds AOA 15kft. Surface winds SE 5-10 kt, becoming WNW 10-20 kt after 20Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....LC SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JB  589 FXUS64 KLCH 200607 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 107 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled pattern will be in place into the Memorial Day Holiday weekend as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level disturbances to work with a very moist air mass. - The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding into early next week. - All interests in flood prone low-lying areas or flood prone urban poor drainage area, along with those along stream and river basins should keep aware of the latest flood risk forecasts. - Temperatures will remain on the warm and humid side through the period. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A complex of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move eastward across the forecast area into Acadiana and then gradually weaken by daybreak. Showers and occasional thunderstorms will continue behind the line before also gradually decreasing by morning. Some high rain fall rates, brief gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be the main concerns for the next few hours. The ongoing convection is expected to work over the atmosphere enough that it is expected to take a while on Wednesday to activity going again. With a very moist air mass and daytime heating, showers and storms are expected to develop by early to mid afternoon with the higher chances where the old boundary will be located across the forecast area. No real changes are seen in the ongoing forecast for the remainder of the week and into the holiday weekend, as generally an upper level trough will be found across the Western US into the Rockies with an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf and northwest Caribbean. In between the sub-tropical jet will stream over the forecast area bringing mid and upper level moisture from the Tropical Pacific to go along with the low level Gulf moisture from the southerly flow around a surface high east of the region. This will allow the forecast area to see a highly anomalous moist air mass with daily PWAT values over the 90th percentile of 1.79 inches and near the Max Moving Average of 2+ inches. Meanwhile, mean layer relative humidity between 100H-50H will be over 80 percent. Warm cloud precipitation processes will also be noted as the warm cloud layer is projected to be from 11k to 15k feet, noting an almost tropical like air mass. So, we do know that there will be several days of high rain chances with possible locally heavy rainfall and a flood risk. WPC has outlined a majority of the forecast area in a Marginal (1 out of 4) to Slight (2 out of 4) Risk or at least a 5 to 25 percent chance of excessive rainfall leading to flooding for each day through Sunday, and extended WPC hazards keep a risk of heavy rainfall with flooding possible all the way through May 27. What is of a lower confidence is the timing each day of when the precipitation will be the most widespread and at its heaviest. It will not rain all the time, but the timing of each upper level disturbance and if it comes during max daytime heating, will be the story of when the rain chances will be the highest. So each day will be more fine tuned the closer in time we get to each day. Also, as the antecedent conditions become more moist with wet grounds, and hydro flow begin to increase, the risk for flooding may increase in time. Otherwise, temperatures will remain rather warm with humid conditions through the period. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A complex of showers and thunderstorms willcontinue to move east across the forecast area during the overnight. The strongest activity is expected to be at the KLFT and KARA terminals with some low visibility due to the heavy rain along with gusty winds. As the intensity of the shower activity decreases, expect mainly MVFR ceilings and visibilities to develop through 20/14z. Daytime heating will bring about another chance for showers and thunderstorms after 20/19z. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure across the northern Gulf with a stalled frontal boundary to the north. This will allow for a persistent light to moderate southeast flow and light to modest seas through the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also continue through the week and remain high into the weekend as a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Expect modest southerly winds to continue through the next several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon Minimum RH values will be above 70 percent through the week into the weekend. High chances for daily showers and thunderstorms are also expected through the week into early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The high minimum relative humidity values and expected wet antecedent conditions is expected to keep fire weather in check. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...07  603 FXUS64 KLIX 200608 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 108 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and widespread Wednesday through the weekend. 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the northwest to less than an inch of much of coastal MS and extreme SELA. - Minor coastal flooding may slightly impact typically known problem areas like Waveland, MS today around midday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper ridging over New England this morning, with a weak upper low stuck underneath it over the Bahamas. The main upper trough extended from Lake Superior to Arizona, but there were shortwaves over Missouri and Texas moving northeast in the southwesterly mid level flow. At midnight, an outflow boundary was over extreme northwest portions of the area to the west of Baton Rouge and McComb, while the true cold front extended from near St. Louis to near Dallas. A weakening band of showers and thunderstorms was just ahead of the outflow boundary. Temperatures around the area at midnight were in the 70s. The general upper pattern doesn't show a lot of change across our area through the end of the week. We stay in southwesterly flow with impulses moving through that flow at 18 to 24 hour intervals. Each impulse will have the potential to produce a few hours of showers and thunderstorms. Timing of individual impulses moving through the flow becomes increasingly problematic as we get further out in the forecast. Precipitable water values remain in the 1.7 to 1.9 range, which puts it close to the 90th percentile climatologically. So, any of these thunderstorms could put down a quick inch or so of precipitation. If repeat cells occur in a short period over an urban area, it's going to cause a problem. In the near term, there's not much agreement as to which area gets dumped on. A few areas could get several inches of rain while others get little or nothing. Actually more concerned about the cumulative effect on areas than on short term events. Between now and Saturday afternoon, it won't be a surprise if somewhere near Baton Rouge gets dumped on, but confidence isn't high enough to pin point an area consistently to justify a flood watch just yet. Little day to day change in temperatures for the rest of the week. What will determine high and low temperatures is when does the rain occur. Areas that see thunderstorms in the late morning hours will be least likely to reach their forecast highs and lows. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The active pattern will persist into the long term period as the active southwesterly flow aloft continues along with the series of impulses leading to more scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially when the diurnal cycle and each impulse match up in terms of timing. Overall, the pattern doesn't appear to change through the period. The higher QPF will reside west of I55 with somewhat lower rainfall amounts over the MS Gulf Coast closer to the upper level ridge that will remain parked over the northeast Gulf or western Atlantic. With PWATS nearing 2.0" at times and several rounds of convection, hydro concerns will continue to remain possible through most of the medium range with poor drainage and urbanized areas most at risk. Otherwise, temperatures will remain mild, but with cloudiness and higher rain chances, temps will be right around average for late May. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR/MVFR conditions through the cycle with a couple of opportunities for convective development. First will be overnight for the western half of the area as a decaying line of storms moves closer to those terminals. Additional convective development will be possible this afternoon and evening. If convection moves over a terminal there will be a bit more erratic winds as well as IFR or perhaps lower in the heaviest rainfall. Otherwise, winds will remain light to moderate from the south. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A large area of high pressure will remain situated over the western Atlantic through the week and into the weekend. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds will bounce around headline criteria with sustained winds right around to slightly below 15 kts, especially closer to the coast and west of the MS River. As for showers and thunderstorms, daily isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day however the bulk of the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorms locally hazardous winds and waves can be expected. Any minor coastal flooding that occurred yesterday should quickly abate and expecting tides to be a little lower each day through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW  987 FXUS64 KLIX 200611 CCA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 111 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and widespread Wednesday through the weekend. 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the northwest to less than an inch of much of coastal MS and extreme SELA. - Minor coastal flooding may slightly impact typically known problem areas like Waveland, MS today around midday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper ridging over New England this morning, with a weak upper low stuck underneath it over the Bahamas. The main upper trough extended from Lake Superior to Arizona, but there were shortwaves over Missouri and Texas moving northeast in the southwesterly mid level flow. At midnight, an outflow boundary was over extreme northwest portions of the area to the west of Baton Rouge and McComb, while the true cold front extended from near St. Louis to near Dallas. A weakening band of showers and thunderstorms was just ahead of the outflow boundary. Temperatures around the area at midnight were in the 70s. The general upper pattern doesn't show a lot of change across our area through the end of the week. We stay in southwesterly flow with impulses moving through that flow at 18 to 24 hour intervals. Each impulse will have the potential to produce a few hours of showers and thunderstorms. Timing of individual impulses moving through the flow becomes increasingly problematic as we get further out in the forecast. Precipitable water values remain in the 1.7 to 1.9 range, which puts it close to the 90th percentile climatologically. So, any of these thunderstorms could put down a quick inch or two of precipitation. If repeat cells occur in a short period over an urban area, it's going to cause a problem. In the near term, there's not much agreement as to which area gets dumped on. A few areas could get several inches of rain while others get little or nothing. Actually more concerned about the cumulative effect on areas than on short term events. Between now and Saturday afternoon, it won't be a surprise if somewhere near Baton Rouge or McComb gets dumped on more than once, but confidence isn't high enough to pin point an area consistently to justify a flood watch just yet. Little day to day change in temperatures for the rest of the week. What will determine high and low temperatures is when does the rain occur. Areas that see thunderstorms in the late morning hours will be least likely to reach their forecast highs and lows. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The active pattern will persist into the long term period as the active southwesterly flow aloft continues along with the series of impulses leading to more scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially when the diurnal cycle and each impulse match up in terms of timing. Overall, the pattern doesn't appear to change through the period. The higher QPF will reside west of I55 with somewhat lower rainfall amounts over the MS Gulf Coast closer to the upper level ridge that will remain parked over the northeast Gulf or western Atlantic. With PWATS nearing 2.0" at times and several rounds of convection, hydro concerns will continue to remain possible through most of the medium range with poor drainage and urbanized areas most at risk. Otherwise, temperatures will remain mild, but with cloudiness and higher rain chances, temps will be right around average for late May. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR/MVFR conditions through the cycle with a couple of opportunities for convective development. First will be overnight for the western half of the area as a decaying line of storms moves closer to those terminals. Additional convective development will be possible this afternoon and evening. If convection moves over a terminal there will be a bit more erratic winds as well as IFR or perhaps lower in the heaviest rainfall. Otherwise, winds will remain light to moderate from the south. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A large area of high pressure will remain situated over the western Atlantic through the week and into the weekend. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds will bounce around headline criteria with sustained winds right around to slightly below 15 kts, especially closer to the coast and west of the MS River. As for showers and thunderstorms, daily isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day however the bulk of the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorms locally hazardous winds and waves can be expected. Any minor coastal flooding that occurred yesterday should quickly abate and expecting tides to be a little lower each day through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW  162 FXUS61 KILN 200615 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 215 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased precipitation chances today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers will linger today as a cold front moves to the southeast. A cooler airmass will settle into the region Thursday offering a temporary dry periods 2) Periods of rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected Friday with the potential for heavy rain. Additional chances for precipitation through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A slow moving surface cold front over northwest Ohio will slip south to the Ohio River and stall out this morning. Mid and upper level flow remains southwesterly with a secondary mid level short wave pivoting northeast thru the Ohio Valley today. This will cause a weak surface wave to ripple along the front and moisture to override it. Anomalously high moisture is over the region with ILN/s 00Z sounding recording a PWAT of 1.5 inches. This breaks the daily record of 1.48 for 5/20 00Z soundings. Expect fairly widespread shower activity to linger into the day today and with the potential for some weak instability across the area (especially the southeast) some embedded thunderstorms will be possible into this afternoon. Any lingering pcpn across our area looks to taper off heading into this evening as shortwave exits the area. With the PWAT plume of 1.5 to 1.6 inches across the area - the potential exists for an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in local swaths with the heaviest across the south. This could lead to a lower end flooding threat, especially for areas across our Indiana counties, where 1 to locally 2 inches of rain fell with Monday's event. A cooler airmass and a temporary dry period will observed on Thursday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2) Additional rounds of mid level energy will lift northeast through the Ohio Valley Friday into the weekend. A southerly low level jet of 35-40 KTS will transport moisture back into the area with PWATs of 1.6 to 1.8 inches. This will lead to widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms. A signal for heavy rain exits and additional rainfall on Friday and Friday night of 1-2 inches is possible with the potential for locally 3+. This will have to monitored as we get closer to a flood potential threat. In continued moist southwest flow, temperatures will moderate warmer through the weekend. The potential will exist for additional chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend but this will be at least somewhat dependent on the timing and placement of the mid level energy. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A slow moving surface cold front over northwest Ohio will slip south to the Ohio River and stall out this morning. Mid and upper level flow remains southwesterly with a secondary mid level short wave pivoting northeast thru the Ohio Valley today. This will cause a weak surface wave to ripple along the front and moisture to override it. Additional storms expected to continue to redevelop this morning, with potential for multiple waves of showers/storms until the shortwave exits the area this evening. CIGs expected to quickly lower to MVFR and then IFR with the passage of the front. Probabilities continue to remain high from guidance to warrant IFR CIGs through majority of daytime hours and into this evening. CIGs may slowly improve to MVFR late in the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Friday into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR  189 FXUS61 KRNK 200615 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 215 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Storms will develop across the mountains by late afternoon and will persist into the evening. Lesser chances east of the mountains, which will still be under the influence of the ridge, limiting storm chances. Have lowered temperatures across the board on Friday given strong wedging signal in short range guidance. An Air Quality Alert has been issued for Caswell, Rockingham, and Stokes Counties in NC through 12AM Thursday due to code orange for ground level ozone. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend, beginning with a cold front today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend, beginning with a cold front today. A cold front is will approach the region from the northwest later today as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. Shear remains modest, but return moisture flow, along with strong surface heating should result in CAPE exceeding 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. This, along with increased forcing from the approaching front should provide a favorable environment for storms to develop across the mountains by later this afternoon/evening. Storms could produce localized damaging wind gusts and some hail. Lingering subsidence from high pressure ridging should keep much of the Piedmont free of rain/storms through the evening. By Thursday, the cold front looks to become quasi-stationary across Virginia and the Tennessee valley. As this occurs, high pressure pushes across the Great Lakes region leading to east/northeast flow across the forecast area. This will lead to some isentropic ascent across the area as warm moist air from the south rides up over this cool but shallow pocket of air at the surface. With stable air at the surface, the threat for severe weather looks to be minimal; however, shower activity looks very likely with rain forecast throughout the day areawide. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, especially across the VA/NC border region, where better instability overlap may occur closer to the stationary boundary. Wedging will strengthen on Friday as the surface high pressure over the Great Lakes moves northeast towards the Quebec/Ontario border. Given a more favorable high location and continued showers, temperatures will likely remain on the cooler side of guidance, so have trended Friday daytime highs lower. Repeated rounds of rain will occur throughout the weekend with continues southwest flow advecting moist air north over the wedging high pressure... While this may ruin outdoor holiday weekend plans, it will hopefully bring much needed rainfall to the region at a steady enough rate to provide some agricultural and drought relief to the area. Although repeated rainfall looks to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced rainfall is not looking very likely, therefore flooding potential remains very localized. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Area-wide VFR flight conditions continue as high pressure remains dominant. Isolated valley fog possible near day break...LWB being the most likely to see impacts if it does form. Between 20-21z, scattered storms will begin to develop along the Blue Ridge and points west, which would bring sub-VFR to any terminal they impact. Coverage increases near the end of the TAF period, though storms will remain scattered as a cold front pushes into the area. Any storm could be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, though severe weather would be isolated to the strongest storms. DAN will remain well southeast of the convection, keeping VFR through the end of the TAF period. Showers and lower clouds could set in by late tonight and into early Thursday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Rain showers and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week as the front slows down over the Mid Atlantic, which will lead to periods of sub- VFR at all terminals each day through the weekend. This typical summertime pattern with daily chances of afternoon showers/storms will persist into next week. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible this afternoon. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Wednesday, May 20, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 98 in 1934 70 in 1998 94 Lynchburg 96 in 1941 68 in 1902 94 Danville 97 in 1996 68 in 2018 96 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 1996 83 Blacksburg 90 in 1934 66 in 1893 89 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/EB AVIATION...AS/JCB CLIMATE...RCS  456 FXUS61 KBUF 200621 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 221 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes made from the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will move across the region this morning, bringing a few showers followed by drier and much cooler weather to close out the work week. 2) Unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will move across the region this morning, bringing a few showers followed by drier and much cooler weather to close out the work week. GOES water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough over east- central Canada this morning. An area of low pressure is located over central Quebec with an associated cold front stretching south across southern Ontario. A moist and mild airmass resides across the forecast area and scattered showers are possible early this morning. The front will move across the forecast area later this morning and drier and cooler air will filter into the region. Temperatures will fall through the daytime hours with high temperatures met early in the day. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s by late afternoon. An abrupt cool down is expected across the region through the end of the work week. Temperatures at 850 will fall to the single digits as high pressure builds across the region. Low temperatures will fall into the 40s tonight and Thursday night. A favorable set-up for radiational cooling is expected Thursday night, especially east of Lake Ontario and areas of patchy frost inland from Lake Ontario can't be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. Ensemble mean 500mb heights indicate an upper level ridge building into the eastern Great Lakes region during the first half of the weekend. Following this, the pattern is expected to become zonal from Sunday through Monday. Deep southerly flow is expected to move into the region ahead of a warm front Friday night through Saturday. The chance of showers will increase from south to north across the forecast area Friday night through Saturday. This time period supports the potential for a widespread, soaking rain. Then, an upper level trough is expected to move north of the Great Lakes region Sunday through Monday, maintaining chances for showers and a few storms. Temperatures will get back to seasonal normals Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers will move across the forecast area overnight. Reductions in flight cats will be possible within any heavier showers to IFR VSBYs. Outside of showers, mainly VFR CIGs early this morning will lower to MVFR and then IFR through daybreak as a cold front crosses the region. Higher terrain LIFR will be possible at times closer to daybreak for a few hours. A low level jet will cause a few hours of LLWS from KIAG to KBUF & to KROC. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the passing cold front. This will result in improving flight conditions after daybreak, with all terminals expected to be VFR by mid/late morning, with KJHW taking the longest for flight categories to improve. Outlook... Thursday through Friday...VFR. Saturday and Sunday...Potential for low end VFR/MVFR due to a low pressure system introducing rain to the region from the south. && .MARINE... A cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes today. Northwest winds will increase on the Lakes today, with an uptick in winds on the eastern end of Lake Ontario. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for this region through this evening. Winds will be lighter on Lake Erie, however may be enough to produce choppy conditions. Winds will then begin to relax as high pressure builds into the region, however a tight pressure gradient may produce choppy conditions on Lake Erie Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...SW MARINE...HSK  453 FXUS61 KPBZ 200621 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 221 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Marginal Risk area for severe storms today has expanded back northwest slightly, but still remains well south of Pittsburgh. Confidence in a quite wet Memorial Day weekend continues to increase. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A conditional threat of isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts exists southeast of Pittsburgh this afternoon. 2) Confidence in soaking rainfall during the Memorial Day weekend continues to increase. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Some scattered showers continue across the region during the early morning hours in a moist environment with lingering outflow boundaries. More concentrated showers and thunderstorms are expected to arrive after sunrise as a weak shortwave rides northeastward ahead of a cold front that is slated to cross today. The front should be draped across the northwestern portion of the CWA at 12Z, and should cross through the Pittsburgh area around midday. Ongoing rain and cloud cover ahead of the boundary lend some uncertainty to the amount of destabilization that will be able to occur over our southeastern counties this afternoon. REFS guidance suggests 500-1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE by 18Z in this area, while the HREF goes a little higher in Preston/Tucker Counties, furthest ahead of the front. Shear in the 0-6km layer in this area is not too impressive, remaining under 30 knots ahead of the front, which will limit storm organization. Still, there may be a relatively brief window during the mid-to-late afternoon for tall storms to take advantage of marginal DCAPE to produce isolated strong to damaging gusts. Hail appears to be a secondary threat due to generally poor mid-level lapse rates and the limited shear. SPC has issued a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for areas southeast of a rough line from Connellsville PA to New Martinsville WV. The passage of the front should end any severe threat by 00Z. Some very localized instances of heavy rainfall are also possible with these storms. Cloud-layer flow will be largely parallel to the front, which could encourage storm training. Also, expected precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.6 inches is at the very top of climatology. HREF/REFS max precip potential suggest localized 1.5- 1.75 inch totals are not out of the question in northern West Virginia. Still, 3-hour FFG values are generally near or just above 2 inches in this area, and thus anything more than an isolated water issue or two is not expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... The front may waver near the southern reaches of the CWA through Thursday night, keeping occasional rain chances in the forecast, especially south of I-70. The environment favorable for strong convection and heavy rainfall will have departed though, and no major impact from this activity is expected. Memorial Day weekend continues to look quite wet overall. Surface low pressure lifts northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley to our west Friday into Saturday, bringing the boundary back north as a warm front and pushing a broad inverted trough into our region. This should return anomalously high precipitable water values back north, accompanied by broad isentropic lift. Also during this time, surface high pressure is forecast to be centered over the Upper Great Lakes and New England states. This setup is similar to past events that have generated 2+ inches of rainfall across the local area, though it should be noted that minor deviations (e.g., east-west positioning of the low or strength of the ridge) could result in the axis of heaviest rainfall shifting around (or away from) the local area. Nevertheless, the NBM continues to illustrate a 60-80% chance for at least aninch of 24-hr rainfall accumulation Friday into Saturday, and a 20-50% chance for 2+ inches. A second wave of rain is then forecast Sunday into Monday though that one appears a bit more progressive in nature thanks to a potential Great Lakes shortwave that has some forward momentum. NBM probabilities for an inch top out in the 20-30 percent range between 12Z Sunday and 12Z Monday. When looking at the total 72-hour period from 12Z Friday to 12Z Monday, the NBM has a 50 to 65 percent chance for 2 inches or more of rain across the majority of the forecast area. Extended machine-learning guidance suggests severe weather chances remain quite low through this period, so that aspect is of lesser concern. However, MMEFS river guidance does suggest some potential impact on area rivers by early next week in higher-end precipitation scenarios, with a number of forecast points on the larger rivers potentially reaching action stage. This also suggests that flooding issues on smaller streams and creeks may become an issue in time. It is too early to discuss specifics and forecast details are yet to be solidified, but this signal will warrant monitoring through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and a few thunderstorms have continued to diminish for most areas tonight as these have outrun the more favorable instability, looking at the latest mesoanalysis and 00Z instability charts. A cold front will continue to approach the area through morning, with additional showers crossing the area. MVFR restrictions are also expected to develop with increasing low level moisture associated with the front. A gradual decrease to IFR is expected for most ports after FROPA from mid morning into the afternoon. Areas from HLG to MGW will see a potential for a thunderstorm with diurnal instability building ahead of the later FROPA. Included a prob30 at HLG, with a tempo at MGW where there is a higher potential for thunderstorms from mid to late afternoon. A wind shift to the NW, and eventually N, is also expected after the passage of the front. Some improvement back to MVFR is expected by evening, though a crossing wave along the front could spread a few more showers across the region. Outlook... Restrictions will likely continue into tonight with the crossing wave along the front. VFR should return to most airports on Thursday as high pressure briefly builds in from the N, though MGW could see restrictions continue through late morning. Widespread restrictions in rain are expected to overspread the region from S-N Friday into Saturday with a warm front. Some improvement is possible Sunday until a cold front approaches later in the day. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL/Cermak AVIATION...WM  502 FXUS64 KFWD 200621 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 121 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Following a lull in rain chances during the daytime, additional thunderstorms will spread into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Locally heavy rain is possible, with a low potential for strong or severe thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Trailing stratiform precipitation lingers across portions of Central Texas early this morning following the departure of convective complexes along a cold front. This light rain and occasional thunder will continue to taper off heading towards sunrise, with a stabilized and worked-over airmass in its wake. Without any well-defined MCV features present, there will be minimal forcing for any new convective development within the CWA through the morning aside from weak warm advection at the 850mb level. With trailing subsidence in the mid-levels seemingly in place between shortwave disturbances, it appears likely that most of the daytime will be dry today while we await additional thunderstorms arriving from the west later this evening. With mostly cloudy skies along with post-frontal ENE winds, highs will struggle to make it out of the 70s. By late afternoon, the radar should become active across West Texas in response to another pronounced shortwave pivoting through parent large-scale mid-level troughing. This should send one or more convective clusters towards the CWA late this evening or overnight. A lack of deep-layer shear will result in storms that struggle to organize despite moderate instability, and so the overall potential for any organized severe weather is quite low. However, an isolated storm could become strong or marginally severe heading into Thursday as this slow-moving activity continues to progress eastward across the CWA. This will be especially true for any convection that may still exist on Thursday afternoon when destabilization will be further aided by daytime heating. However, the most prominent threat will likely be flooding, as slow storm motions and efficient rainfall processes support locally heavy rain. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Although modest height rises may overspread the area heading into Friday, the recovery of stronger southerly flow and a higher theta-e airmass will still support scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, most of which will likely be diurnally driven. This airmass recovery will also mean a return to warmer and more humid conditions, with highs in the mid 80s and heat index values around 90 on Friday afternoon. By Saturday, a diffuse upper-level low will drift into the Southern Plains where it will linger for a few days while the synoptic pattern remains fairly stagnant. This regime will allow for daily thunderstorm chances to continue over the weekend and into early next week. While activity would likely reach a maximum during peak heating each day, the weakness aloft and occasional subtle shortwaves rounding the low could support showers and thunderstorms outside of traditional diurnal time periods. The presence of this low will also mean very weak shear through the column, and most convection would likely resemble activity more characteristic of summertime thunderstorms. Strong instability but weak shear should lead to mainly ordinary cell or multicellular storm modes with a reduced potential for organized severe weather. Slow storm motions will continue to support a flooding threat through, especially after multiple consecutive days of rainfall for some locations. Increased cloud cover will continue to provide below normal temperatures through the extended forecast period with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR/IFR cigs are expanding across D10 with this expected to persist through daybreak, before IFR slowly improves to low end MVFR. A reduction in visibilities is also likely to around 3-4SM. Ceilings should improve to above 2kft early afternoon with a gradual clearing and return to VFR around 21Z. Lingering rain and remains across the KACT region with a few lightning strikes in the vicinity. This will diminish over the next couple of hours with low end VFR ceilings persisting, before the onset of MVFR around 12Z. There's a ~30% chance of IFR between 12- 15Z, but no mention has been included. Will be monitoring for adjustments as needed with trends over the next few hours. MVFR will also continue well into the afternoon before clearing for KACT, with winds shifting more easterly through the period at all sites. Beyond 06Z, chances for showers and storms will return to all of North and Central TX as well as additional ceilings, but this will be assessed in future TAF issuances. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 66 81 67 / 90 30 30 60 Waco 88 70 80 67 / 90 100 30 60 Paris 79 63 80 65 / 90 40 30 50 Denton 83 64 79 65 / 90 30 30 60 McKinney 81 65 80 66 / 90 30 30 60 Dallas 88 66 82 67 / 90 30 30 60 Terrell 84 66 81 66 / 90 40 30 60 Corsicana 84 68 83 69 / 90 60 30 60 Temple 90 69 81 68 / 80 70 40 60 Mineral Wells 82 63 78 63 / 90 50 30 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Gordon  589 FXAK67 PAJK 200622 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1022 PM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 .EVENING UPDATE AND 06Z AVIATION UPDATE... The forecast remains on track as a low pressure system and associated front continue to push into the gulf. The main change has been to wind speeds and gusts as winds have not been as strong as initially forecasted. Currently, the strongest winds remain over the far northern gulf near Cape St. Elias with gusts up to 45 kts occurring. SE winds across the northern and northeast gulf will continue to increase, becoming gale force Wednesday morning, as pushes over the area. Heaviest rain and strongest are still on track to impact the area late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. .AVIATION...A front continues to push into the area bringing moderate to heavy rain which will reduce ceilings and visibilities. We are already seeing the impacts of this front as it has reached Yakutat reducing ceilings below 1000 ft and visibilities around 4 to 6 SM. As this front continues to push eastward, the rest of SE AK will see aviation conditions decrease with widespread IFR to MVFR ceilings Wednesday morning. This will mainly be due to lowered ceilings AoB 1500 ft, but with heaviest rain visibilities are also likely to decrease. Along with rain we will see winds quickly increase as the front approaches the panhandle. The strongest winds are anticipated to be across the central panhandle with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts. Other areas will also see windy conditions with winds around 10 kts and gusts around 25 kts possible. Yakutat is the most likely to experience wind shear of 30 to 40 kts around 2000 ft during the morning hours as the low pressure system pushes inland. As for fog, forecast confidence has decreased in fog development over the southern panhandle due to cloud cover expected to develop sooner than initially anticipated. That being said, there is a slight chance for a few isolated and protected areas to see patchy fog late tonight into early Wednesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Wednesday a gale force system brings widespread rain to the region. - Showers over the panhandle on Thursday, then another front weakening and falling apart Friday. - Quick look at the holiday weekend is, it is becoming more likely that a potentially stronger Summer system to move to the panhandle Sunday. && .SHORT TERM...The active (by spring standards) pattern looks set to continue through the duration of the period, as a series of troughs and ridges continue to move up along the eastern flank of a Rossby wave over the Pacific. A ridge moving over the southern panhandle will bring drier weather through late Tuesday night for areas south of Frederick Sound. The northern half of SE AK will see lingering showers as moisture rotates in along the ridge axis, further fueled by the remnants of a shortwave trough which will move in through Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, a far better developed system moves into the Gulf, deepening as it moves toward Anchorage. The low will throw a gale force front into the panhandle, which is progged to arrive Wednesday morning across the Outer Coast and by Wednesday afternoon for the rest of the area. This front will bring with it periods of widespread moderate rain and windy conditions. Given the presence of saturation across the atmospheric column, most of SE AK will see a total of ~1 to 2 inches of rain. Given the system's trajectory,the NE Gulf Coast favored for the greater totals. The far southern panhandle will be the exception, as they could receive lower totals of ~0.5 to 1 inch as the bulk of the initial system moves north, although a trailing cold front moving through Wednesday night will bring some additional rainfallto this area. Flooding concerns are not expected, as snow levels will remain on the lower side for this time of year, and so do not expect much augmentation of the streams from mountain runoff, alongside the rain itself. Some snow may mix in with rain during the overnight hours - especially Thursday night - at White Pass, but do not expect any significant accumulations. Gusty winds will also be widespread, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph on Wednesday across much of central and northern SE AK, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph for the southern panhandle. The system will depart on Thursday, with another ridge moving across the panhandle. Similar to the previous ridge, the best chances of some lingering rain showers will be for the northern half of the area and the inner coastal mountains, while the south will be mostly on the drier side by late Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will trend toward the cooler side, with low temperatures getting down into the low 40s or even upper 30s. .LONG TERM.../ Friday to Tuesday / A front sweeps the western gulf Thursday evening and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night and Friday. Yakutat should see good rain rates Thursday night and early. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend. For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / Damp conditions look to be the norm for Saturday as an area of vorticity/trough like feature moves through the panhandle. Highest likelihood of precipitation is from the central panhandle southward, though the amount of precip looks to be light. For Sunday into Monday however, what was looking like a decent strength system heading toward Dixon Entrance area yesterday, has switched tracks farther south, taking any higher winds and precip mostly with it. Only the GFS is keeping more impactful winds and precip in the area for Sunday into Monday (though it is an outlier), and even then it is mostly for the southern half of the panhandle. This farther south track does mean a higher likelihood of drier weather for the northern panhandle Sunday into Monday due to downsloping conditions from easterly flow, and there is a chance that the drier weather could extend into the south as well if the current southward trend of the low track continues. Monday could also turn out to be one of the warmer days of the weekend with high temps approaching the upper 50s with several breaks in the cloud cover possible. Into mid next week the trend reverses back to damp and cool conditions as more systems come into the panhandle from the gulf. && .MARINE...Winds continue to diminish in the wake of a front which moved through on Sunday, although respectable southerly flow will persist in Northern Lynn Canal through the foreseeable future. A system moving across the Gulf on Tuesday arrives in SE AK on Wednesday, bringing gale force winds to the N and NE Gulf Coast, and small craft conditions to the inner channels. Outside coastal waters: Winds have diminished substantially in the wake of the last system, and seas have trended down overnight down to 6 to 7 ft for most areas based upon buoy observations. Winds will trend upwards again on Tuesday across the Gulf, and by Tuesday night for the outer coast, as another system approaches SE AK. Expect the strongest winds to be largely focused around the northern gulf and gulf coast, though gale force winds could extend as far south as Cape Edgecumbe. Waveheights should ramp back up as this system moves in, reaching 12-15 ft on Wednesday. Winds and waveheights then diminish late Wednesday into Thursday as the system departs. Inside Channels: Similar to Sunday night, winds across the inner channels diminished overnight Monday into Tuesday. The lone exception once again was Lynn Canal, where elevated southerly flow of ~20 kt persist. Winds will ramp back up to 10-15 kt on Tuesday across the board, as southerly flow is sustained by a weak wave moving onshore. Wednesday will see widespread sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30 kt as a strong warm front moves onshore, alongside elevated seas, with ocean entrances reaching 10+ feet, and areas where swell reaches seeing additional inclement conditions. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ323-325- 327. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661. && $$ UPDATE...EAB SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM...Bezenek/EAL AVIATION...EAB MARINE...AP Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  713 FXUS61 KCAR 200624 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 224 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... -Fog has developed and is lingering in the St. John Valley, and along the Downeast coast, reducing visibility. Expected to dissipate as the sun rises. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty winds, along with very warm and dry conditions, leads to fire weather concerns today, despite a few rain showers Downeast. 2) Below average temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday and Saturday mornings across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds, along with very warm and dry conditions, leads to fire weather concerns today, despite a few rain showers Downeast. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure and warm front moves northeast further into Canada, as associated cold front moves through Maine this evening. Since front moves through later in the day, northern and eastern Maine remain in the warm sector of the system throughout most of the day, warming the region up pretty well. Daytime highs in the upper-70s to low-80s in the north, mid-80s in Central Highlands to Southern Aroostook, and mid-to-upper 80s Downeast. Relatively decent pressure gradient behind this low pressure system, alongside decent mixing, which allows for gusty winds tomorrow, peaking in the afternoon around 30-35 mph in the north and 25-30mph Downeast. Minimum relative humidity values generally in the 30s today, resulting in some fire weather concerns. There is some instability, primarily in the Downeast region, that could support some developing rain showers during the afternoon. These showers are not anticipated to be severe, or long lived. But there could be a quick burst of rain and maybe a rumble of thunder before sunset, primarily in Hancock and/or Washington counties. KEY MESSAGE 2... Below average temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday and Saturday mornings across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The frost/freeze program will expand across much of the rest of northern and eastern Maine on Thursday except across the North Woods and most of the Saint John Valley, where it begins on June 1. Strong cold air advection is expected Thursday behind a cold front, with 1000-500mb thicknesses dropping below 540dam for much of the forecast area by Thursday night. With a strong jet streak overhead and moderate surface pressure gradient, decoupling is less likely except across the most sheltered valley locations. Drier air with dew points in the mid 20s may also prevent frost formation. Even without frost and full decoupling, some damage to sensitive plants is possible in these conditions as 2 meter temperatures fall into the mid 30s north of Baxter State Park and some of the cooler valleys of the North Woods fall to around freezing. By Friday night the surface ridge of high pressure extends over the area from central Quebec. This will lead to lighter winds and a better chance of decoupling over more of the area, especially the lower elevations of northern Maine. Low temperatures into early Saturday morning may be a few to several degrees lower than blended guidance as a result. Dew points will also be higher in the upper 20s and lower 30s, leading to more frost formation potential across northern zones. A warm front across southern New England will lead to a shield of cirrus clouds approaching southern parts of the area late, which may cut down on cooling potential closer to the coast. Below average temperatures will continue for Saturday and Saturday night, but amoderation is expected as high pressure moves over and eventually east of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Today: Generally VFR, except for MVFR/IFR at KFVE and KBHB in fog. Fog is expected to dissipate by morning. During the day, VFR conditions. SW winds around 10-15 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts possible. LLWS until daybreak. Tonight: VFR. N/NW winds Gusts 20-25 kts possible. Thursday: VFR. NW winds at 10-15 kts. Gusts 20-25 kts possible. Thursday night to Saturday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts during the day Friday, otherwise NW at 5-10 kts. Saturday night to Sunday: VFR with light and variable winds, shifting SE at 5-10 kts Sunday. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for outer waters in effect until this evening, with seas around 5ft and a few gusts to 25kts possible. Marine fog has already developed, and should burn off when sun rises. Chance for passing rain today. SW winds today, shifting WNW by Thursday. Winds and seas will remain below advisory criteria Thursday night through early next week. The lightest winds and seas are expected this weekend, with winds around 5 kts and seas 1 to 2 feet or less. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050- 051. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/MWS AVIATION...ASB/MWS  710 FXUS63 KAPX 200624 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 224 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Seasonably cool temperatures and quiet weather return today through the rest of the work week. -Frost/freeze concerns continue tonight and Thursday night. -Temperatures slowly build through the rest of the week into early next week with periodic chances of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Pattern Synopsis: A 500mb troughing pattern begins to break down and progress northeast this morning as a somewhat zonal flow positions itself over Northern Michigan. Post-frontal northwest flow at the surface will draw a cool cP air influence into the Great Lakes Region, resulting in seasonably cool temperatures and overall quiet weather through the remainder of the work week. Conditions turn more active this weekend as low-amplitude shortwave troughing develops over the Canadian Rockies until it reaches the central U.S. and then lifts through the Great Lakes Region. Disheveled surface low pressure will provide enough energy to return some scattered showers around the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. The remainder of the forecast period will remain relatively quiet as upstream ridging returns subsidence aloft and surface high pressure settles over the central U.S. with temperatures building above normal for late May. Forecast Details: Today through Friday...Post frontal northwest flow will build cold and quiet weather across the Northwoods. Surface highs will be below normal for this time period as the coldest day (today) will only reach highs in the mid 50s to low 60s for most areas. The only concern at this time period is the chilly overnight temperatures falling into the mid to low 30s. Temperatures will be near freezing as cloud cover clears late, which impacts the true efficiency of overnight radiational cooling processes. Areas along the interior northern lower and eastern upper will likely observe a short period of temperatures at or below freezing while areas closer to lakes remain slightly warmer. Saturday and Sunday...The previously mentioned shortwave will return light shower chances this weekend as guidance depicts low pressure tracking through the Mississippi Valley across Michigan. With weakening upper level dynamics combined with the strongest forcing to our south, highest probabilities remain below a quarter inch for the entire event. Nevertheless, light stratiform rain this Saturday and lingering moisture behind the system provide less than ideal weather for the holiday weekend. Monday and Tuesday Outlook...Upstream ridging pattern originating from the southwest and progressing across the county will support a gradual rise in temperatures across the Great Lakes region. Southerly air influence combined with diurnal heating processes will return high temperatures to the 70s and 80s across the CWA. Subsidence aloft will return high pressure, keeping precipitation chances minimal next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Some pockets of lingering sub-VFR CIGs over the next several hours for parts of northern MI, but a return to VFR expected area-wide by daybreak this morning. Occasionally breezy northwest winds through Wednesday before winds turn light/variable tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321- 322. && $$ DISCUSSION...SJC AVIATION...MJG  956 FXUS61 KCLE 200627 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 227 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for western counties until 7PM this evening. Some convection has begun to develop upstream of the area and is expected to move into the destabilizing area across NW OH. Current temperatures have surged into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. The primary concern remains strong winds. Will need to continue to monitor conditions further east to determine if any expansion is needed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The entire area remains highlighted in Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. Primary threat remains strong winds, although localized heavy rainfall and small hail are possible. 2) A big cool down is on the way for Wednesday and Thursday as high moves into the area. 3) An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... This afternoon, a few light showers continue to linger across far NEOH and NWPA, keeping cloud cover over that portion of the area and limiting keeping destabilization at a minimum right now. However, across western counties, cloud decks have scattered out and temperatures have quickly rose into the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, trending towards the low 70s. This has allowed for rapid destabilization with modeled soundings suggesting SB CAPE already in the 2000-2500 J/kg range and steepening low level lapse rates close to 8 C/km. The best shear with this event should remain north of the area with bulk shear values in the 15-25 knot range. Given these environmental conditions, would not be surprised to see some isolated storms develop this afternoon ahead of a main line expected to push east later this evening. DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg add confidence that the primary hazard concern with any convection with be strong to damaging winds. Cannot rule out some small hail, especially in the discrete cells ahead of the primary line. The tornado threat remains very low, although not zero, given the best shear is to the north of the area. Any quick spin ups that do occur would likely be embedded within the line of convection this evening. The final concern is locally heavy rainfall, especially in the most developed cells, that could lead to localized ponding on area roads. Modeled soundings suggest that brief training of cells could occur this evening along the boundary which would coincide in timing with an increased warm cloud layer and PWAT push. Overall concern for widespread flooding this evening remains low, but to highlight the potential WPC has included the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) ERO today. KEY MESSAGE 2... Late tonight, a strong cold front is expected to move east across the area, marking a transition back to much cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be nearly 20 degrees cooler compared to today, only climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s as 850mb of 5-7C nudge south over the area. Some lingering showers will be possible across the southern tier of counties on Wednesday before the cold front fully pushes south and high pressure dries everything out through Thursday. Unfortunately, that means that Wednesday will be rather dreary as cloud coverage across the area lingers before peaks of sunshine return on Thursday. To compliment daytime highs, overnight lows Wednesday night will fall into the low to mid 40s and into the upper 40s to low 50s Thursday night. At this point, there is no concern for a late season frost. KEY MESSAGE 3... The upcoming holiday weekend will be fairly unsettled as multiple shortwave troughs push east across the region, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area as a near stationary boundary settles somewhere near the CWA. Initially, this boundary on Friday should begin to push north of the area, marking a transition back to warmer and more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Then this boundary will ebb and flow over the CWA as the aforementioned troughs push east. As moisture increases over the area, multiple rounds of rainfall, potentially heavy at times, will result in possible flood concerns across area rivers and potential aerial flooding where rain persists. WPC has already highlighted the area in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. The thunder potential should be isolated to daytime hours as diurnal instability adds additional support for shower development, but any severe potential remains uncertain at this time. Highs throughout the weekend will be in the 70s with mild overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... A cold front is near TOL as of 6z and will sweep southeast across all terminals through 11-12z. Ahead of the front mainly VFR prevails, though with a few showers towards central Ohio and some patchy lower ceilings across far eastern OH and northwestern PA. All will fall to low MVFR to IFR with the frontal passage...have IFR included at MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI, and can't rule out brief IFR at CLE. Showers will fill back in this morning, mainly south of TOL-CLE-ERI, before exiting to the south and southeast late this afternoon and evening. Some occasional visibility restrictions may accompany these showers, especially at MFD/CAK/YNG. Ceilings gradually climb through MVFR and back to VFR late this morning and afternoon from north to south as drier air gradually filters in. Winds will turn initially northwest and then quickly north-northeast at around 10kt behind the front this morning and persist at that general speed and direction into tonight. Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times in rain late Friday through Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief non-VFR again possible Sunday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Winds are quickly turning north-northeast early this morning as a cold front crosses the lake. Winds will briefly increase to around 15kt across the western and central basins this morning, which will briefly build waves to 2-4 feet with those waves being driven towards the shore. Winds briefly lull this afternoon. A stronger pressure gradient is expected Thursday into Friday as high pressure slides north and northeast of Lake Erie. Winds will turn northeast tonight and increase to 15-20kt. Winds will remain northeast and increase further to 20-25kt at times Thursday and Thursday night. Winds gradually turn more easterly and then southeasterly Friday and Friday night, remaining elevated at 15-25kt until late Friday night or early Saturday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will be needed for most or all nearshore waters beginning overnight tonight or early Thursday. Will not hoist those with this package but they will be coming today at some point. Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, generally southerly winds may be elevated enough to cause issues for smaller craft on Saturday. Winds will trend lighter for Sunday and Monday and eventually come around to the northwest. It will be unsettled with periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, with a drying trend likely by Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  915 FXUS61 KOKX 200626 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 226 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Heat Advisory remains in effect for NYC and northeast New Jersey as hot weather continues through this afternoon. 2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, followed by lingering showers tonight into early Thursday. 3) Unsettled with periods of showers expected for the upcoming holiday weekend along with a much cooler airmass over the region. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue today with good boating weather early in the day, and water temperatures still in the 50s.s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... No changes were made to the heat advisory for the NYC metro and NE NJ which remains in effect until 8pm. One last hot day is expected today as the region remains on the NW periphery of western Atlantic ridging. Temperatures should end up a few degrees lower compared to Tuesday in the warmest spots, but still will reach the low to potentially mid 90s in NE NJ and portions of the NYC metro away from the Atlantic coast. Elsewhere, highs will reach the mid to upper 80s except for 70s to low 80s closest to the coast. Followed the same trend as recent days and blended in some of MAV/MET guidance along with the 10th percentile of the NBM, since the NBM deterministic continues to run too hot. This is especially true for locations more impacted by a bit more onshore flow. Max heat indices will reach the mid 90s in the Advisory area and generally the upper 80s to low 90s for other locations away from the immediate coast. Temperatures and heat indices may drop significantly in the mid to late afternoon if showers and thunderstorms develop. There is a chance the Advisory will be cancelled sooner than 8pm if this scenario were to occur. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening. The front will serve as a mechanism to develop showers along with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. SPC has continued to outline a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the southern two-thirds of the region. A few of the storms may become severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Timing for the severe thunderstorm potential continues to be from 2pm-8pm. The latest CAMs are still offering varying coverage of convective development with some just showing isolated coverage with others scattered to a bit more numerous. The cold front will provide convergence along with falling heights aloft. Strong heating today should provide enough instability to promote convective development, first early this afternoon for the interior and then the rest of the area by mid to late afternoon. Lingering convection may still impact portions of the coast this evening as the front sags south across the area. While brief heavy downpours are possible in any shower or thunderstorm, quick storm motion will mitigate the potential for anything more than nuisance flooding. Showers will likely linger the first half of the night near the coast as the front works offshore. There may also be some redevelopment of showers late tonight into early Thursday morning as a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front. The low pressure is tied to a passing jet streak to our north, associated with a broad trough over Northern New England and southeast Canada. There is still some uncertainty with this feature as some of the model guidance keeps the showers just south of Long Island. Conditions should dry out Thursday afternoon, but lingering cloud cover may persist through much of the day. Best chance for some clearing looks to be well northwest of the NYC metro. Daytime temperatures on Thursday will only be in the 60s, 20-30 degrees cooler than Wednesday. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The end of the week will remain dry and much cooler. The dry period will be short-lived as unsettled weather with periods of showers looks likely for the upcoming holiday weekend. The frontal boundary that moves through today/Wednesday will remain to our south with multiple disturbances/waves of low pressure moving along it through the weekend. Moisture from these systems will overrun high pressure to our north and east. The main challenge for this period is timing when the most widespread shower activity will occur. The highest probabilities currently are from late Friday through early Sunday. However, there is still some uncertainty, especially if the surface ridging from the high is stronger. This would help suppress the showers a bit further south, with at least the northern half of the region seeing less rainfall. Chances for showers continue late Sunday into Memorial Day as additional energy may pass to west or northwest. Otherwise, will remain mostly cloudy through the weekend with temperatures likely running below normal for late May in the low to mid 60s. Nighttime temperatures should be in the 50s. The frontal boundary may get pushed further south by next Tuesday, which could help lower any chance for showers. .KEY MESSAGE 4... One last day of cold water safety concerns due to another day of hot air temperatures. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold frontal passage occurs this aftn and eve. High pres builds N of the area on Thu. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 18Z. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop after 18Z, with the best chance from 21-00Z. Kept TSRA chances in a PROB30 at this time as confidence in the coverage of TSRA remains uncertain. If a thunderstorm does occur, it could be strong to severe with brief strong gusty winds up to possibly 40 to 50 kt. MVFR or lower conditions possible in any TSRA. Aft the fropa, CIGS lower to around 4000ft overnight with the potential for additional shwrs. Confidence in shwrs is low so they have not been included in the TAFs. WSW winds this mrng, becoming NW this afternoon and evening aft the fropa. The flow veers further to the NE aft 8-9Z Thu. Wind speeds generally around 10-15 kt much of the TAF period with gusts to near 20 kt this afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible to refine timing of showers and thunderstorms today. MVFR CIGS possible aft 00Z Thu, but the probability was too low to include in the TAFs attm. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late Tonight: Mainly VFR with NW winds veering to the NE. Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions possible early for coastal terminals and NYC terminals at times with a chance of showers. Mainly VFR thereafter. Friday: Possible showers and MVFR conditions. Chances of showers increase late day into night. Showers become likely at night. Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt. Sunday: MVFR or lower with chances of showers. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters through early this evening. Winds will likely be marginal and overall below 25 kt, but there still may be a few gusts nearshore around 25kt. Seas should build to 5-6 ft, especially east of Fire Island Inlet. 5 ft seas could linger east of Moriches Inlet into the evening, so have extended the SCA for these waters until 11 pm. In addition to the elevated seas and marginally gusty winds, a cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening will bring with it the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with gusts in excess of 35 kt. Conditions tonight through Friday are expected to remain below SCA levels with a cold front south of the waters. The next chance for SCA conditions will be this weekend as several waves of low pressure pass along the cold front to our south. One last day of cold water safety concerns due to another day of hot air temperatures. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176- 178. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353- 355. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS AVIATION...JMC/MW MARINE...DS  974 FXUS62 KTAE 200627 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 227 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - A HIGH RISK of rip currents at area beaches into the Memorial Day weekend. Beach- goers are urged to consult lifeguards on surf conditions and discouraged to enter the surf if red or double red flags are flying. - Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend. Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95 degree range. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. Coverage will then increase over this weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger storms. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper ridging extends from the Bay of Campeche northeast through the tri state region into the Carolinas and off the mid Atlantic coast. To the west, longwave troughing extends through the Rockies southwest to off the Baja coast. In between the trough and ridge lies a cold front from the Great Lakes southwest to Texas. This front will edge slowly over the next few days to northern Alabama and Georgia while the upper ridge shifts east. With the shifting of the ridge east into the weekend, this will allow higher PWATs (1.6- 1.8 inches) to shift from west to east through the area while drier air to also shift southeast into the Florida peninsula. Rain chances today will primarily be associated with the Emerald Coast seabreeze where higher PWATs reside with development in the mid afternoon hours shifting north into the evening hours. Rain chances Thursday and Friday will be relatively low (20-30%) before losing some of the influence of the ridge as it heads east. Rain chances gradually increase this weekend into early next week with the better chances Monday and Tuesday (30-60%) favoring seabreeze development and subsequent boundary interactions. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns. In the meantime, upper high translates to off the southeast US coast Tuesday which will act as a suppressor once again towards mid week next week, especially in the eastern half of the area where PWATs fall to 1.2 inches east with 1.8 inches west. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices will run in the mid to upper 90s with around 100F in some spots this weekend with the increase in moisture. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of tonight. Patchy fog and lowered (IFR) cigs are possible at ECP and DHN around daybreak. Later in the afternoon, the same terminals will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the evening. Erratic winds and frequent lightning will be the main concerns. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for our remaining terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature into early next week. This will maintain light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and seas of 1-3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop thisafternoon first in the Florida panhandle and move north into southeast Alabama later today and then this evening across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Moving forward into the weekend, chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms increase with a majority of the districts standing at a 30-60% chance. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns. Afternoon dispersions are fair to good each day and afternoon humidities are well above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Heavy downpours beneath the core of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may lead to localized and short-lived nuisance flooding in urban or poor drainage areas, mainly from Saturday onward as thunderstorm coverage increases and the air mass moistens further. Larger scale flooding and river flooding are not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 71 92 71 / 10 0 20 0 Panama City 87 72 87 73 / 30 0 0 0 Dothan 90 69 90 68 / 50 20 10 10 Albany 91 69 92 70 / 10 0 20 10 Valdosta 92 70 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 Cross City 92 70 92 72 / 10 20 20 0 Apalachicola 85 73 86 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Haner  442 FXUS65 KPIH 200631 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1231 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost & freeze conditions persist through the rest of the week - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Thursday - Temperatures return to 10-15 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Trends still point toward an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms later today and continuing through Thursday afternoon. Low pressure drops south out of Canada and actually deepens as it swings across the state. At the moment, we may see little to no chance of precipitation once we get into the Stanley Basin and Wood River Valley. Precipitation amounts range from just a few hundredths to closer to 0.25" across portions of the eastern and southeast highlands. In reality, wherever we can get heavier showers or bands to develop, 0.25" can easily be achieved through tomorrow. Looking at probability forecasts, the higher end amounts in any given 12 hour period do indicate that 0.30-0.50" could occur in these situations. It will be breezy occasionally in the next 36 hours, with the only impact coming Thursday with gusty northeast winds on American Falls Reservoir. We will likely exceed thresholds for a northeast wind event and a LAKE WIND ADVISORY needed down the road. It will be just cold enough that we will will see some light snow accumulations on highest peaks and ridgelines as well. It looks like frost/freeze conditions (outside of typical colder spots this time of year) may linger through Saturday morning. We have a FREEZE WARNING and FROST ADVISORY for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley for this morning. For tonight, a FROST ADVISORY may be needed for portions the Arco Desert and INL area. Friday morning will likely see freeze conditions across most of the Snake Plain, and frost conditions in rural spots Saturday morning. We do eventually warm back up, but it won't be until we return to southwest flow over the weekend and early next week. We will be well into the 70s and 80s for afternoon highs. With the next low moving into the region starting Tuesday, we will quickly drop back into the 60s (based on the latest Blend of Models forecasts) by midweek. We will likely also not be shower or storm free ahead of that storm. We continue to see small surges of moistures which COULD set of a few light showers/sprinkles and thunderstorms. Right now, we are keeping any potential at 15% or less until Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 920 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Winds have settled down for the night. A few mid to high level clouds may drift over the sites overnight. Expect winds to increase mid to late afternoon with increasing clouds through the day. SUN should turn upvalley around midday with a gradual turn to the southwest late in the afternoon. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051-053>055. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ052. && $$ DISCUSSION...Keyes AVIATION...13  979 FXUS64 KCRP 200634 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 134 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 -Line of storms will move through the area early this morning bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds. - Multiple rounds of storms are expected through the upcoming weekend. At least a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding each day, with a potentially increasing risk of river flooding later in the period as rainfall totals add up. - Hazardous beach conditions persist for one more day, with a high risk of rip currents expected along the Middle Texas Coast and a chance for minor coastal flooding with today's high tide cycle. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Synoptic Overview: A very active and wet spring pattern will prevail for at least the next 7 days as the subtropical jet is positioned over South Texas, directing a procession of low to medium amplitude mid-lvl disturbances over the area. At the surface, a nearly stationary cold front is analyzed over Central Texas early this morning. This boundary should remain north of our area, and then eventually lift back northward Thursday into Friday. The overall low-lvl synoptic pattern will be characterized by warm and moist S-SE flow through Saturday, although the presence of outflow boundaries/cold pools and associated mesoscale gradients will likely complicate the surface picture at times. Forecast Details: The aforementioned pattern will be characterized by elevated rain chances (generally 50 to 80%) more or less every day through early next week. Despite lower than normal predictability due to the progressive/low-amplitude nature of the mid-lvl disturbances, at this point there are a few potentially more impactful periods to highlight within the broader active period. 1.) Early this morning: A progressive MCS (which originally initiated near the stationary front well to our north) is moving through the area early this morning, bringing locally heavy rainfall (1-3 inch totals) and strong to even damaging winds (although current radar trends are not overly impressive). This feature should clear the area around or just after daybreak. 2.) Tonight into Thursday: Convection will likely develop over the higher terrain of NE Mexico this afternoon, and then aided by lift from a low amplitude shortwave will likely progress eastward into the Rio Grande Plains this evening/tonight and then towards the Coastal Plains Thursday morning. While overall this system looks smaller-scale and likely weaker (due to less instability) than this morning's disturbance there is an outside chance at an isolated severe gust and potential hydro concerns (dependent upon this morning's rainfall totals). Guidance loosely favors the southern half our area to experience the highest totals, but given the less organized nature of this disturbance not particularly confident in placement. 3.) Late Friday night into Saturday: The highest amplitude mid-lvl disturbance of the period moves into the area late Friday night into Saturday. Although we are just outside of the CAM range, another MCS with heavy rainfall seems probable to accompany this system. Assuming we will be "primed" due to antecedent rainfall earlier in the period, hydro concerns may become amplified with this period. The aforementioned mid-lvl disturbance looks to cut-off near or just north of our area Sunday into early next week. If this low can progress far enough north/east we would have at least a brief period of somewhat drier conditions as drier filters into the area on its western flank. Conversely, if it stalls more or less overhead we will likely see continued wet conditions into Memorial Day/Tuesday. Temperatures through the entire period will be highly dependent upon convective timing, although assuming the overnight period remains most active, highs should largely run near to just below normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The main concern for the first half of the TAF period will be a line of storms progged to move through early this morning. Currently 06 to 12Z looks to be the most probable time frame for direct terminal impacts, with strong winds (gusts in excess of 35 kts) and temporary visibility reductions the primary concerns. Winds will generally be out of the SE outside of gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflows. Most shower/thunderstorm activity moves offshore leading to VFR conditions through the afternoon. From 00Z, thunderstorm activity off the mountains of Mexico will move eastward, though timing on this will depend on exact timing/location of storm development, so I have added PROB30s from 00Z-06Z for KCOT/KLRD/ALI for thunderstorm/shower activity. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) easterly-southeasterly winds are expected to prevail through the work week with seas decreasing to 3 to 4 ft by late this afternoon. Several rounds of thunderstorms can be expected through the weekend with the first round expected early to mid morning today. Brief periods of strong winds (greater than 34 kts), elevated seas, and reduced visibility can be expected in storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 No fire weather concerns through the week as moisture increases and minimum RHs remain over 50% area-wide. Medium to high rain chances (50-80%) are expected each day through Saturday. These should be solid wetting rains with aerial averaged totals largely in the 2 to 4 inch range through Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 89 76 86 75 / 50 40 70 40 Victoria 88 73 84 71 / 50 50 90 60 Laredo 93 72 88 72 / 30 70 80 50 Alice 90 74 87 72 / 50 40 80 50 Rockport 89 78 87 77 / 50 40 70 50 Cotulla 89 71 86 70 / 40 80 70 40 Kingsville 89 75 87 73 / 40 40 80 40 Navy Corpus 86 78 85 78 / 40 40 60 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-343>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NC/91 AVIATION...NC/91  080 FXUS63 KBIS 200636 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 136 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near or below freezing temperatures across much of eastern and central North Dakota tonight into early Wednesday morning. - Slightly warmer Wednesday through Friday, with medium chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning late Wednesday afternoon. - Above normal temperatures favored this weekend and especially early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The isolated shower in north central North Dakota has dissipated. Radar now shows light reflectivity approaching from northeast Montana. Haven't seen any signs that this is reaching the ground as ceilings remain high and model soundings shows very low RH in the lower levels. Nevertheless, did add a slight chance of sprinkles to northwest and north central North Dakota through Wednesday morning. UPDATE Issued at 940 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A little warm advection and a weak impulse along the International Border was enough to create an isolated shower in the north central this evening. Webcams showed some rain hitting the ground. Added a few hours of pops to cover this. Currently the shower is moving through Renville County and into Western Bottineau county near Lansford. Observation near Bowbells earlier indicated some IP with the cell earlier, which isn't surprising given the cold temperatures aloft. Otherwise not much going on this evening with remaining clouds dissipating. Current dewpoints are in the low to mid 30s. No changes to current frost/freeze headlines. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No significant changes needed for the early evening update. Winds will subside over central ND. In the west, winds are beginning to shift southerly. This trend will spread east into central ND tonight. Clear to partly cloudy skies this evening with frost/freeze highlights over all of central and portions of western ND. Increasing winds and clouds later tonight in the west are expected to limit the extent of any frost, and keep temperatures above freezing, especially in the far west. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough continues to dig across Western CONUS locking in a cooler airmass across the Plains. Surface high pressure continues to move overhead. This will help clear skies this afternoon and lead to cool overnight temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s to 60s across the area. Clear skies and radiational cooling are forecast to lead to low temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s. There is a good shot of freeze and frost occurring tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern and parts of central North Dakota while a Frost Advisory has been issued across parts for southwestern and central North Dakota. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s and 70s. Wind will shift from northwesterly tonight to southeasterly tomorrow as surface high pressure shifts off to the southeast in Minnesota and surface low pressure moves into eastern Montana. This will lead to breezy conditions across the central and eastern half of the state by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into the northwest by the afternoon hours as an upper level wave approaches the region. An upper level low is forecast to stall out over southern Saskatchewan Thursday and Friday. Cyclonic flow aloft will usher in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms until the end of the week. There is around 70 percent chance that that portions of western and central North Dakota could see up to 0.25 of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This cooler pattern will keep temperatures in the 60s to 70sdaily until warming up by the weekend. The NBM 25th percentile begins to push the upper 70s to lower 80s and the NBM 75th percentile has lower 90s. There is fairly high confidence for warm weather to start off next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are mostly expected through the forecast period. A few sprinkles are possible across northwest and north central North Dakota through Wednesday morning, with no impacts to aviation. From mid Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop over western and north central North Dakota. Heavier showers and storms could produce brief downpours with IFR visibility and gusty winds. Outside of showers and storms, southerly winds will increase over central North Dakota Wednesday morning and afternoon, with sustained speeds reaching 20-30 kts and gusts as high as 35 kts. In western North Dakota, expect southerly winds around 15 kts with low level wind shear through early Wednesday morning, then becoming more southwesterly around 10-15 kts through the afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ003-004-012-019-020-022-035-041-042-044-055>062. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ005-013-023- 025-036-037-046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Hollan  145 FXUS64 KAMA 200637 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 137 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thunderstorms will be possible today. There is a chance for some storms to be severe with large hail being the main threat. Thunderstorm chances will be daily from Thursday through Tuesday. Some storms Thursday and Friday could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Some fog or mist may occur Thursday morning alongside shower and thunderstorm activity. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 H500 troughing continues through the short term period. Today, H500 winds will strengthen and create upper level forcing for thunderstorms later this afternoon. Low to mid level moisture profiles are strongest further south of the High Plains, though sufficient Theta-E for convection should extend all the way to the Oklahoma Panhandle based off Tuesday's model guidance. Overnight surface winds will veer from northeast to southeast. South to southeasterly wind flow will also aid in moisture transport into our CWA. Tomorrow, theta-e profiles remain generally high across the region. Surface wind flow remains south to southeasterly and measurable QPF remains spread across the combined Panhandles. The highest concentration of rainfall remains forecast to occur tonight through Thursday morning. 00Z CAMs suggest that showers and thunderstorms are more likely to advance from the Southern Plains than off the high terrain in New Mexico. Concerns are still present that pockets of subsidence will exist as showers move into the Panhandle region. This will lend to a more scattered than widespread storm mode; and given the convective nature, not every location will receive equivalent rainfall totals. SBCIN will still be present by the time storms arrive in the early afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to be higher than SBCAPE across the area; therefore, elevated storms are anticipated and inhibition will be overcome since parcels will be lifting above the cap. Steep mid- level lapse rates and sufficient 0-6 km bulk shear will create an environment conditionally favorable for severe storms with hail as the primary hazard. The main weakness to this setup is the lack of quality MLCAPE. Instability will be highest across the southwestern Texas Panhandle with values over 1,000 J/kg possible. Storms that move into this zone will have the highest chance of becoming severe. Cloud coverage is expected to be extensive across the High Plains today, with little breaks from cover to allow for substantial day time heating. Given these conditions, highs will be below average for this time of year ranging from the 60s to lower 70s. Lows this morning will be in the 40s with some lower 50s likely in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Tonight into Thursday morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue though this period. Mesoscale parameters are expected to be unfavorable for night time convection to become severe. Mist and some fog may also be present alongside the shower activity given the moisture through the region. Cloud coverage will remain high through much of the day, but there may be a window of clearing Thursday afternoon from west to east. This will allow highs to reach the 70s and create enough heating for instability to increase. The most recent CAMs display thunderstorms forming off the high terrain once again, but this time holding together as the move east into the Panhandles. Storms tomorrow are expected to be surface based with CAPE values between 1,500 - 2,000 J/kg. The highest effective shear is expected across the northwest combined Panhandles, but favorable SBCAPEand sufficient low and mid-level lapse rates may allow for a the conditional severe threat to exist further south of our northwest zone. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper level troughing continues through much of the long term period. High temperatures will steadily return to average values heading into the weekend. Friday to Sunday expect 70s to lower 80s. Monday and beyond current trends suggest we return to the mid 80s. The potential for severe thunderstorms still exits in the east on Friday; however, concerns remain prevalent on dryline placement and how diffuse it may be by the time convective initiation is expected to occur. The NBM remain set on +50% PoPs Saturday afternoon, but as we head into next week, we may see a decline for rain chances across the CWA. Rangel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions tonight will become MVFR later this morning. The National Blend of Models guidance suggests that IFR ceilings will begin near sunrise and linger through the afternoon. The highest confidence for thunderstorms currently exists for KAMA, so PROB30 has been added for the afternoon and evening period. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are possible but chances are much lower for impacts at this time. MVFR ceilings should continue through the majority of the remaining 06Z TAF period. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55  073 FXUS64 KHGX 200636 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 136 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this week. Some may be strong at times. Locally heavy rainfall also possible. - Risk of flooding/flash flooding will need to be monitored, moreso later this week/weekend as rain totals begin adding up and the ground becomes more saturated. - Mariners should be prepared for the multiple rounds of storms. Winds and seas will be higher in and near storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 First round of storms, one of many to come, is in the process of working its way through the region. Main inpact from these were 30-50mph gusts and some localized heavy downpours. Totals have mainly been under an inch, but there's a few spots that've seen 1-4". Expect rainfall to taper off in the morning hours, and we'll likely be stabilized for a good while afterwards so have trimmed POPs back for the remainder of the day. We will remain in an unsettled wx pattern for several days ahead...characterized by persistent western troffiness and us being positioned within a very messy southwesterly flow aloft in advance. With deep Gulf moisture in place (PW's 1.7-2.1"), chances of dirnally driven precip will be in place at a minimum. But stronger impulses embedded in the flow aloft will likely trigger more organized storm complexes at times, along with the potential for some stronger storms & heavier rain rates...which can occur during the nighttime hours as well. Unfortunately in this type of pattern, the problem is actually identifying these disturbances when they're beyond 12-24 hours out, then adjusting for periods of stabilization afterwards. Right now, we're eyeballing the next next stronger impulse and associated widerspread precip making its way in from the west toward Thursday morning. Each round will probably bring somewhere in the order of 0.5-3.0" rainfall to the area. In the short term, we should be able to handle another round or maybe two without too many flood issues, other than the typical localized variety. But as days wear on, the precip totals begin adding up, and the ground becomes increasingly saturated...we'll have be be cognizant of the potential for increasing flood/flash flood impacts in the days ahead. Guidance remains wet thru the holiday weekend into early next week as the western mid-upper trof moves into Texas...and possibly another trof dropping into about the same area later next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Two lines of TSRA are the primary concern tonight. One line is about to push offshore in the vicinity of Galveston Bay. The other one is moving east to southeastward from the Brazos Valley. Rain and storms will likely continue impacting many of our terminals tonight, until the storms push offshore by morning. Light to occasionally gusty E to ENE winds expected behind the storms. Near the coast, there may be a period of strong, gust E to SE winds as the storms push offshore. Mostly MVFR conditions expected in the morning, followed by a BKN VFR cloud deck in the afternoon. Next round of SHRA/TSRA may not arrive until late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are in the process of pushing off the coast. Some 30 to 40 knot gusts are anticipated along the leading band of storms as they pass southward. Winds could be chaotic in terms of speed and direction through mid to late morning Wednesday with a localized tight pressure gradient in the vicinity of a MCV. We could see somewhat of a lull in speeds at times in the coming hours, but quickly increase again for 4 to 8 hours Wednesday morning. Have broadbrushed a SCA for all waters to take these factors into account. Otherwise, an unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend...with additional rounds of storms likely. Unfortunately, each individual complex will be difficult to time beyond 12 to 24 hours. During breaks in between systems, look for light to moderate onshore winds and 3-5 foot seas. 47 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected this evening through Monday. The first round will start tonight bringing 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 5-7+". With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr are possible in the heaviest downpours. Anywhere we see these intense rainfall rates, localized flash flooding is possible. That being said, we are not anticipating widespread river flooding just yet; however, this will help prime the soils as we continue with a wet pattern. As the week progresses, multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall on top of primed soils will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall, flash and riverine flooding comes this holiday weekend as intense rainfall rates will bring accumulated values of 4-6+" across most of southeast Texas Saturday into Monday. Widespread action to minor stage flooding is expected with moderate to isolated major stage flooding possible depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 83 70 79 70 / 30 50 90 60 Houston (IAH) 83 73 82 73 / 30 40 80 50 Galveston (GLS) 84 78 84 79 / 40 30 60 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-350- 355-370-375. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ335. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Cassel MARINE...47  177 FXUS62 KMLB 200638 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 238 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Continued High Risk for life-threatening rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! - Temperatures see little change into early next week, but increasing humidity into the weekend will produce heat index values near or above 100 degrees and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. - Isolated coastal showers continue. However, most convection will be focused over the interior, moving towards the west coast into the evening. Overall, many locations will stay dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Today-Tonight...A rinse and repeat forecast today, as a ridge remains placed northeast of the local area. The only difference today looks to be a very minor reduction in east to southeast flow. However, winds are still expected to increase to around 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze, with gusts to near 20 mph, especially along the coast. Winds then become light overnight, a reduction from the previous few days. High temperatures continue in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the 70s, but near 80 along the coast. With little change to the overall pattern, have maintained a low chance (15%) for onshore- moving showers through tonight across coastal areas, knowing that CAMs struggle to resolve these features. A slight reduction in the east coast sea breeze is expected to allow for a more interior collision over the peninsula, though it still favors areas well west of Orlando. Outside of light coastal showers, the sea breeze will be the focus of convection this afternoon, with PoPs 20-40%. Drier air in the mid-levels leading to DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C could once again support a strong storm or two, with gusty winds near 50 mph and small hail, as well as lightning strikes. Any showers and storms that develop will drift westerly, inland from the coast. Thursday-Wednesday...High pressure remains off of the eastern US seaboard through the forecast period, though it is expected to drift southward towards Florida into mid-week next week and strengthen. Meanwhile, a mid to upper level low north of the Bahamas drifts eastward late this week, with upper level ridging subsequently developing over the peninsula. Locally, little change remains expected to the weather pattern over the next seven days. East to southeast flow prevails on the southern periphery of the ridge. Winds increase each afternoon to 10-15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, behind the sea breeze as it moves inland. The strongest gusts are expected along the coast. The daily sea breeze collision will continue to favor the far interior, if not western half of the peninsula. Thus, that's where the highest rainfall chances are for the afternoons and into the evening hours (PoPs 20-50%). A slight increase in moisture this weekend looks to have little effect on PoPs, as ridging develops aloft. Regardless, isolated coastal showers embedded within onshore flow are expected to persist through much of the period, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. However, most areas will likely remain dry overall. Lingering drier air in the mid- levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday, before increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures reduce that threat into the weekend. E/SE flow holds high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which rise into the upper 90s to low 100s. Humid conditions and little relief overnight dueto temperatures remaining in the 70s (and near 80 along the coast) will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk and even a developing Major HeatRisk for several ECFL locations (including the Orlando metro). Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks in an air- conditioned space. A High Risk or high- end Moderate Risk for rip currents looks to continue through the week into the weekend, thanks to onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east to southeast flow through the weekend. Winds remain around 10-15 kts, with gusts near 20 kts along the coast behind the sea breeze. Shallow, low-level moisture will support at least isolated showers through the weekend. However, a majority of convection will develop over land areas along the sea breeze and drift farther westward. Seas 2-4 ft prevail into the weekend, though occasionally reach up to 5 ft well offshore. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. East winds 10-15 KT this afternoon with locally higher gusts will decrease to around 5 KT overnight. East to east-southeast winds will increase to around 10 KT by 14Z and then increase to 8-12 KT with gusts to around 20 KT in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Much like today, scattered showers will be moving onshore through the morning/early afternoon before transitioning to the interior with the inland moving sea breeze in the afternoon. Have included VCSH wording along the coast starting at 14Z and then transitioning to the interior at 20/21Z. Isolated showers will continue to push along the coast through tomorrow night. However timing and coverage are too low to warrant VC wording at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 72 89 75 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 90 72 91 74 / 30 10 30 10 MLB 86 77 88 79 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 87 76 88 78 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 91 73 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 SFB 91 72 92 74 / 30 10 40 0 ORL 90 72 91 74 / 30 10 40 10 FPR 86 75 88 77 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wishard AVIATION...Law  325 FXUS61 KLWX 200641 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 241 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some subtle changes in regards to the timing of scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon along with placement of greatest coverage. A sharp cooldown with on and off rain chances expected Thursday through the upcoming holiday weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening as a strong cold front crosses ending the record heat. 2) Turning showery and sharply cooler Thursday into early next week with several days of much needed rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. Relief is on the way today as a strong cold front approaches the region. The front will break the record heat while bringing renewed strong to severe thunderstorm chances to the region. Temperatures will quickly climb from the mid 60s and low 70s this morning back into the mid to upper 90s east of the mountains. Dewpoints will also hover close to 70 degrees making for more of that true summertime feel in the DMV. The added heat and humidity combined with the strong cold front will be the catalyst for thunderstorm development today. The entire region remains in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out 5) for severe weather per SPC. This aligns with CSU Learning Machine probabilities along with NCARS AI NWP Convective Forecast and NSSL Probs for the afternoon and evening period. The coverage storms looks to be scattered to numerous although the severe threat will be isolated given west to southwest flow aloft. MLCAPE values will peak in the 1000-2000 j/kg range this afternoon with 0-6km shear values less than 30 kts. This would support multicellular clusters capable of producing damaging winds (downbursts) and large hail. Current 00z CAM guidance shows a variety of solutions when it comes to timing. General consensus is for convection to fire along a lee side trough east of the Alleghenies/toward I-81 early to mid afternoon between 1- 4 pm before sliding east into the metros between 3-9pm. The greatest coverage of storms (i.e best organization) appears to be north of I- 66/US-50 given the progression of the front as it drops in from the northwest. Locations further south may see more of a smattering of storms (in multiple rounds) pushing through. Still believe there will be enough coverage of severe thunderstorms for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued at some point this afternoon for portions of the area. Not expecting flash flooding given current 6 hr QPF values around 1-2" and 3 hr FFG values just above those marks. Could see some increased runoff in typical urban /poor drainage areas and areawide with recent drought concerns. Convection should start to wane between 9-11pm tonight, but showers could linger well into the overnight as the cold front crosses. Lows tonight will fall back into the mid 50s and low 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning showery and sharply cooler Thursday into early next week with several days of much needed rainfall. Synoptically, looking at a transient/wedge pattern Thursday into the upcoming holiday week. Weak troughing will reside over the Ohio River Valley with high pressure locked across New England/Great Lakes region. The combination of these two features along a stalled front to the south will lead to persistent onshore flow into the region. As a result, expect several days of on and off shower/thunderstorm activity through the remainder of week into the Memorial Day holiday. Sunshine will be limited with plenty of cloud cover expected and cooler than normal temperatures as a result of the east to northeast flow. Highs Thursday will take a 25 to 30 degree dive behind the front with many locations struggling to push 70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to run below normal on Friday, struggling to make it into the 60s. Ensemble guidance shows much larger spread in temperatures Saturday through Monday, with some solutions keeping us locked into low cloud cover and temperatures in the 50s/60s, while some other solutions try to break us out of the low clouds, causing temperatures to climb into the 70s. The most notable thing in the extended, outside of the sharp cooldown will be the much needed rainfall as a result of this active pattern. Periods of on and off showers with overrunning along the boundary will yield rain totals of 1 to 3 inches through early next week. Some localized amounts of 4"+ are possible back across the Alleghenies and up into central/northeast MD. With that said, this should ease some of the severe and extreme drought across the region. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue across the terminals through 18z/2pm ahead of a strong cold front. Sub-VFR restrictions return at times this afternoon and evening due to widespread showers and strong/severe thunderstorms. Expect convection to initiate in the vicinity of KMRB/KHGR/KSHD between 18-21/2-5pm advancing east toward the I-95 corridor terminals between 20-24z/4-8pm. Did opt for TEMPOs toward BWI/MTN/MRB with PROB30s further south toward IAD/CHO/DCA given hi-res model output suggesting a greater focus of convection north of I-66/US-50. Winds will remain out of the west/southwest ahead of the front before shifting back to the north and northwest Thursday at 5 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts at times. Some low CIGS may hang on through Thursday morning as the front slowly sags south of the region. Periodic rain showers moving through the region on Thursday afternoon and evening bring additional sub-VFR periods at terminals Wind gusts could reach 15 to 20 knots on Thursday before gradually decreasing. Sub-VFR conditions possible Friday through Sunday with multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Winds generally northeast to east 5 to 10 knots, more gusty in heavy showers. && .MARINE... Winds may near low-end SCA levels in south to southwesterly channeling this afternoon and evening (mainly open/wider waters), and then again in northerly channeling on Thursday. SMWs appear possible this afternoon and evening as thunderstorms move over the waters. East to northeast SCA level winds are expected over much of the bay and surrounding inlets Friday and Saturday given increased onshore flow. No marine hazards are expected Sunday and Monday with winds switching back to the south and southeast. && .CLIMATE... Here are some daily temperature records during the May 19-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None.WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ533-534-537-542-543. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ534-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...KLW/DHOF/EST AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/EST MARINE...KLW/DHOF/EST  396 FXHW60 PHFO 200642 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 842 PM HST Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Trade winds will steadily increase Wednesday through Thursday night and will bring windy conditions by Thursday. Wind speeds could increase to wind advisory level, especially over Maui County and the Big Island on Thursday. Passing showers will continue to ride in with the breezy to windy trade winds through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Latest satellite imagery shows a band of moisture just east of the state which should be arriving late tonight into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers will ride in with the strengthening trade winds, which should mainly be focused over windward and mauka area. A few showers will also be possible over leeward areas. A drier air mass will move in late Wednesday into Thursday, but with the windy conditions, light passing showers are still expected over windward and mauka areas. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM HST Tue May 19 2026 Radar showed scattered showers over the Kona slopes this afternoon, along with isolated windward and mauka showers on all islands. Cloud cover ranged from mostly clear to overcast, with the clearer conditions generally over leeward areas. Showers should weaken around sunset, but a few will continue overnight mainly windward and mauka. Models remain consistent showing trade winds drying out and increasing in speed through Thursday. Higher wind speeds, potentially reaching wind advisory level, will arrive tomorrow and continue into Friday and perhaps Friday night. Showers will decrease both in number and intensity once the drier air arrives, with the main drying occurring Wednesday afternoon into the evening. A consistent moderate to occasionally strong trade wind flow is expected to continue through the weekend and well into next week as a large surface high to our north remains strong enough to dominate our weather. A band or two of enhanced moisture may arrive after the weekend, but it's too soon to time that out reliably. && .AVIATION... Moderate to fresh trade winds will strengthen Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds. Showers will mostly affect windward and mountain areas as well as the night time and early morning hours. Drier air could fill in later tomorrow night, limiting showers. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration may be needed tomorrow morning, before drier conditions settle in later on Wednesday. The increasing trade winds and inversion tonight and Wednesday will likely require AIRMET Tango. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 PM HST Tue May 19 2026 Locally fresh trades become strong with localized near-gales during the latter half of the week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect and will eventually be expanded to all waters as winds and seas build later this week. Small, short to medium period NNW swell filling in today. This will be followed later this week by a small NNW swell emanating from a strong low near the Aleutian Islands. A series of small, long period SSW swells supports near-average surf along S shores. Meanwhile, strengthening trades maintain elevated surf and short period fresh swell along E facing shores into next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ Update...Kino DISCUSSION...Parker AVIATION...Tsamous MARINE...JVC  488 FXUS62 KGSP 200644 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 244 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast continues to trend cooler for late this week and wetter through the early part of next week. The aviation discussion was updated to reflect the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front will approach the area today and then stall nearby through the weekend, resulting in cooler and wetter weather through Memorial Day weekend. The threat for severe thunderstorms and excessive rain appears to be low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: A cold front will approach the area today and then stall nearby through the weekend, resulting in cooler and wetter weather through Memorial Day weekend. The threat for severe thunderstorms and excessive rain appears to be low at this time. One more seasonally hot day today, then the forecast gets more uncertain. The situation today looks similar to yesterday as the western Carolinas are under a col region of sorts, resulting from the TUTT low north of the Bahamas superimposed on the old upper ridge deamplifying off the East Coast. Meanwhile, a cold frontal boundary will be making slow progress east of the OH Valley and over the TN valley region. The upshot is that we won't have much in the way of support for deep convection or buoyancy through tonight, at least not east of the mtns. There will probably be enough differential heating over the mtns to support some shower activity, especially in light of the isolated development yesterday, so a chance was kept there. The showers should taper off within a few hours of sunset. Plenty of sun and a lack of convection should allow us to get about ten degrees above normal again, but the air mass remains dry enough to prevent any real heat problems. Thursday should be the transition day as the guidance moves the old cold front into our region even as mid/upper ridging tries to rebuild overhead. Guidance indicates that southwest flow aloft will become better established which should help provide more fuel while the frontal boundary provides more focus. Temperatures are a concern. Highs are forecast to be 5-10 degrees above normal again because the convection doesn't really get going until mid/late afternoon, but if that were to begin by midday, temps might not get as warm as expected. The overall risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain appears to be relatively low, but Thursday probably has the best shot of any day upcoming because of better sfc-based CAPE which tops out around 2500 J/kg and some weak southwesterly shear. Because of the convective nature of the expected precip, some will win and many will lose. The expectation is that the boundary will be pushed south across the fcst area Thursday night by high pressure moving across the Great Lakes. This transitory sfc high to our north will support a cold air damming wedge for at least Friday, dropping our temps ten degrees or more. The CAD signal appears stronger with this cycle. Some of the guidance has temps struggling to get out of the 60s in the typical wedge areas and that could happen if sufficient low level isentropic lift develops. Note that several of the models do just that and the raw model temps support undercutting the NBM substantially, so the expectation is that our high temp for Friday will drift cooler. Precip probs climb into the likely/categorical ranges and seem to stay there through the holiday weekend and don't improve until the middle of next week. The latest guidance supports this idea with a prolonged moisture flow from the Gulf because of a favorable mean trof/ridge pattern. Expectations should be managed at this point, but if the models stick with this idea, we could actually see enough rain to be beneficial across some parts of the region over the five day period. The QPF has been increased. At any rate, the drought shouldn't get any worse. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR should prevail at all terminals through the period, but there are few details worth mentioning. First, we will be on the lookout for low stratus moving up from the Coastal Plain around daybreak, though it is not nearly as extensive as it was this time last night. Second, scattered showers/storms may develop over the mountains this afternoon, though the latest model guidance keeps storms more isolated than we have in our forecast. Will maintain a PROB30 at KAVL anyway until there is more confidence in it not happening. Otherwise, light/variable wind through sunrise will become light SW to S once again, and a few stratocu are expected. Wednesday night should be quiet again, but clouds will start to increase late. Outlook: An approaching front and increasing moisture will bring a more active pattern for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday afternoon and then continuing through the end of the week. Cold-air damming may produce widespread MVFR to IFR cigs thru the day Friday. The potential for overnight fog/low clouds will increase through the period as well. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ PM  506 FXUS64 KLZK 200644 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 144 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 144 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 -Chances for showers/thunderstorms remains for western into northwest sections through the morning hours -Drier later this afternoon into early Thursday -Better chances for more organized convection later Thursday into midday Friday -Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Most of the convection has moved SE of the state early this Wed morning...with mostly dry conditions ongoing. However...the main SFC boundary remains west/NW of the state where the lower dewpts are noted. An upper wave was drifting into the state early this morning...with some new convection developing along the AR/OK border near/south of FSM just ahead of the main SFC boundary. Expect some additional convection to continue to develop in this same region ...and areas just north into the morning hrs. Coverage of convection looks to decrease by later this morning into the afternoon hrs as the upper wave moves east of AR...and upper ridging develops overhead. However...keep some mention of convection for central/SRN sections late this afternoon into the evening hrs as the SFC front/dewpt boundary drops further south into the state. POPs will increase back north on Thu into Fri as the SFC front lifts back north as a warm front. A new upper shortwave will also lift NE over the region around this same timeframe...aiding in providing lift for more organized/widespread convection Thu night/Fri morning. While the threat for seeing SVR Wx remains low at this time...mainly due to timing of the Thu night/Fri system...there may still be an isolated strong/SVR TSRA during this time frame. Locally heavy rainfall may also be seen...which may lead to an isolated flash flood threat. There will be a brief lull in the convection Fri afternoon/evening...but an unsettled pattern will persist through the Memorial Day weekend into next week. Flow aloft will persist from the SW over the region...and upper waves will pass overhead throughout the period. This will keep chances for precip elevated pretty much every day through the end of the forecast. Chances for SVR Wx look uncertain...and will depend on details specific to each day regarding instability and SHR. Several rounds of rainfall may be seen during this period...but exact placement of heaviest amounts also remains uncertain at this time. Even so...some areas will continue to see beneficial rainfall that should help improve the ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Generally poor flight conditions expected through the period. Sfc winds will remain variable across the state at generally less than 10 kts. Uncertainty remains regarding coverage of RA/TS activity through the period. Lowest cigs/vsby expected through 14z this morning. Some sites could see VFR conditions by 21/00z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 74 60 75 64 / 30 10 50 90 Camden AR 82 64 77 64 / 30 20 80 90 Harrison AR 69 58 71 61 / 20 10 50 80 Hot Springs AR 81 63 75 64 / 20 20 60 90 Little Rock AR 78 62 75 64 / 30 10 50 90 Monticello AR 81 66 79 66 / 40 30 80 90 Mount Ida AR 80 64 74 65 / 30 20 70 90 Mountain Home AR 70 58 73 61 / 30 10 40 80 Newport AR 75 61 77 64 / 50 10 50 90 Pine Bluff AR 80 64 77 65 / 30 20 60 90 Russellville AR 79 63 75 64 / 20 10 60 90 Searcy AR 76 60 76 63 / 30 10 50 90 Stuttgart AR 79 64 77 66 / 30 10 50 90 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...67  698 FXUS61 KCTP 200645 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 245 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Low/marginal severe storm risk area now confined to the southern tier of CPA this afternoon into early evening * Reiterating bearish trend for max temps Friday and Saturday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over the southern tier of CPA this afternoon/evening 2) Major cooldown to close out the week and start Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall over 1 inch Friday and Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A few storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over the southern tier of CPA this afternoon/evening Sfc cold front crossing western Lake Erie at 06Z will advance south and east across CPA today before stalling out to the south of the MD line tonight into Thursday. Moist and unstable air ahead of the cold front combined with increasing low level convergence will lead to sct thunderstorm development by the afternoon across the southeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the fcst area. The instability along with sufficient 0-6km shear and steep low level lapse rates should support a few stronger storms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts. SPC rolled over the D2 MRGL risk (level 1 out of 5) to D1 with a slight south/east shift in the outlook area. HREF/REFS also indicate potential for locally heavy rainfall >1" near the MD line as showers and storms likely persist through the evening into the overnight period across the southern tier of CPA. ----------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Major cooldown to close out the week and start Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall over 1 inch Friday and Saturday Relief from the early season heat wave arrives in earnest on Thursday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower vs. Wednesday across the LSV. Strong high pressure slides from the Lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast to close out the week. Model data shows the high channeling southward down the east-side of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming (CAD) event heading into Memorial Day weekend. Increasing CAD signal strength enhanced by moderately strong east/southeast low level flow and soaking rainfall has prompted a considerable bearish/lower adjustment to max temps Friday and Saturday. In fact, highs on Saturday are near daily record lows at several locations (mini/max). Guidance may be too optimistic in rebounding temps Sunday into Monday, but opted to keep baseline NBM for now. That said, the trend will be to moderate warmer with steadier rain giving way to more showery conditions for the unofficial start of summer. NBM/WPC QPF continues to show widespread 48hr rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range Friday-Saturday. The cool/stable air will cap rates with longer duration helping to mitigate flooding risk in most areas. The forecast rainfall is much needed over the far south central/southeastern counties who remain under D1-D2 moderate to severe drought conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions prevail as of 01Z Wednesday, with these conditions likely (80-90% confidence) to continue at all airfields outside of BFD through ~12Z Wednesday. In this timeframe, approaching a line of SHRA with embedded TSRA will approach NW PA closer to the ~03/04Z timeframe. This will likely bring low-end VFR to high-end MVFR ceilings which will persist throughout the entire overnight period and throughout much of the evening hours on Wednesday (~22/23Z Wednesday). Closer to the 12Z timeframe, increasing signals for IFR at BFD based on a consensus of HREF ensemble members and multiple cycles of GLAMP model guidance, so have decided to include these in the TAFs with moderate (~40-50%) confidence on timing. A brief period of lower ceilings trending towards LIFR will be possible; however, confidence remains too low for inclusion in the 00Z TAFs. Elsewhere, the aforementioned line of SHRA/TSRA is expected to diminish in intensity/coverage overnight, leading many airfields unlikely to receive any SHRA in the 00Z-12Z Wednesday timeframe. Recent HREF runs have been fairly consistent with the progression of a low-level cloud deck across all of central Pennsylvania, so have included these mentions and slightly adjusted timing based on recent HREF/NBM/GLAMP model guidance in order to outline initial onset of MVFR restrictions. There is high (~70-80%) confidence on SHRA/TSRA reforming during the late morning to early afternoon hours (mainly after 16Z) with increasing coverage into the evening hours. Current SHRA mentions have been included at all terminals across central Pennsylvania based on recent forecast/HREF/GLAMP model guidance with most uncertainty with respect to timing. In terms of TSRA coverage, the highest potential at this time is outlined across SE PA (MDT/LNS) where enough instability will be present in order for some mentions in the TAF. At this time, have trended towards PROB30s; however, if the cold frontal passage trends quicker than forecast, could see mentions removed at MDT/LNS in future TAF packages. Outlook... Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat-Sun...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Beaty  757 FXUS61 KCTP 200646 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 246 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Low/marginal severe storm risk area now confined to the southern tier of CPA this afternoon into early evening * Reiterating bearish trend for max temps Friday and Saturday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over the southern tier of CPA this afternoon/evening 2) Major cooldown to close out the week and start Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall over 1 inch Friday and Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A few storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over the southern tier of CPA this afternoon/evening Sfc cold front crossing western Lake Erie at 06Z will advance south and east across CPA today before stalling out to the south of the MD line tonight into Thursday. Moist and unstable air ahead of the cold front combined with increasing low level convergence will lead to sct thunderstorm development by the afternoon across the southeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the fcst area. The instability along with sufficient 0-6km shear and steep low level lapse rates should support a few stronger storms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts. SPC rolled over the D2 MRGL risk (level 1 out of 5) to D1 with a slight south/east shift in the outlook area. HREF/REFS also indicate potential for locally heavy rainfall >1" near the MD line as showers and storms likely persist through the evening into the overnight period across the southern tier of CPA. ----------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Major cooldown to close out the week and start Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall over 1 inch Friday and Saturday Relief from the early season heat wave arrives in earnest on Thursday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower vs. Wednesday across the LSV. Strong high pressure slides from the Lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast to close out the week. Model data shows the high channeling southward down the east-side of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming (CAD) event heading into Memorial Day weekend. Increasing CAD signal strength enhanced by moderately strong east/southeast low level flow and soaking rainfall has prompted a considerable bearish/lower adjustment to max temps Friday and Saturday. In fact, highs on Saturday are near daily record lows at several locations (mini/max). Guidance may be too optimistic in rebounding temps Sunday into Monday, but opted to keep baseline NBM for now. That said, the trend will be to moderate warmer with steadier rain giving way to more showery conditions for the unofficial start of summer. NBM/WPC QPF continues to show widespread 48hr rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range Friday-Saturday. The cool/stable air will cap rates with longer duration helping to mitigate flooding risk in most areas. The forecast rainfall is much needed over the far south central/southeastern counties who remain under D1-D2 moderate to severe drought conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The MCS across western PA this evening has largely decayed, with the main flight impacts being brief westerly wind gusts around 20-25 kts & spotty showers for the Central Mountains (primarily KAOO/KUNV) through 07-08Z Wednesday. Ceilings are expected to lower NW-SE as a cold front approaches, with highest confidence in restrictions at KBFD/KJST. Downsloping W/NW winds are expected to limit the extent of ceiling restrictions to MVFR elsewhere, with improvements to VFR after the front passes during the evening. There is high (~70-80%) confidence on SHRA/TSRA reforming during the late morning to early afternoon hours (mainly after 16Z) with increasing coverage into the evening hours. Current SHRA mentions have been included at all terminals based on recent forecast/HREF/GLAMP model guidance with most uncertainty with respect to timing. In terms of TSRA coverage, the highest potential at this time is outlined across SE PA (MDT/LNS) where HREF highlights SBCAPE upwards of around 1000 J/kg, though SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg may support TSRA across KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT as well, with PROB30s added to address this possibility. Locally gusty winds are possible as well given low- level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km in the afternoon, though confidence is low regarding the extent and strength of wind gusts. Winds shift northerly behind the frontal passage this evening, with anafrontal rain developing across South/East PA during the evening/overnight hours. Outlook... Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat-Sun...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Beaty/Teare  679 FXUS63 KMQT 200645 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 245 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures through the rest of the work week. Frost is possible the next few nights. - A dry work week is followed up by light rain this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The going forecast remains on track this morning as GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery shows some pockets of low stratus and some high cirrus but otherwise unimpactful weather over the UP. RAP analysis shows expansive 1024 mb high pressure centered over the eastern Dakotas yet covering most of the north-central CONUS. Anywhere not affected by low stratus will see efficient radiational cooling tonight with decreasing northwest winds in addition to the ongoing 850mb cold advection. This 1-2 punch of cooling will bring lows near freezing this morning for most. While a slackening pressure gradient from the approaching high and low pressure over Quebec getting further away will result in decreasing winds, the long fetch of the NW winds will keep wave heights in excess of 4 feet for the nearshore Lake Superior waters adjacent to Alger and Luce counties into this afternoon, which may be hazardous to small craft. For the week ahead, with the only precipitation chances in the forecast having low impacts associated with them, the two biggest areas of impactful weather will be the potential for particularly dry weather this work week and frost impacting the beginning of growing season. With high pressure dominating the forecast for the rest of the work week, RHs will fall in the afternoon hours, with some spots seeing minimum RHs Thursday and Friday well into the mid- 20s. Thankfully, light winds mainly gusting under 15 kt will limit any wildfire concerns. With Friday beginning frost/freeze headlines, the LREF has increased chances of the interior UP seeing sub-36 degree lows Friday morning, now as high as 55%. A hard freeze is not expected as chances of sub-freezing lows sub-10%. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Amended at 246 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure and dry air building in from the west behind the previous day's cold front sets up a quiet pattern for the remainder of the work week as it slides over the Great Lakes region. Precipitation does not return until this weekend as a trough over the Plains pivots northeast over the region. Details around this are murky, but impacts likely will be low as instability is nil and probabilities of exceeding 0.5 inches of rain in 24 hours holds at 10% of less. Drier and warmer weather is progged to return early next week with high pressure possibly returning. This quieter period is captured in the CPC precipitation outlooks with near normal for the 6-10 day and slightly below normal for the 8-14 day. Despite zonal flow developing aloft by this afternoon, low level CAA into today yields temps between 5-15F below normal. Lows in the 30s to low 40s this morning will only warm into the 40s to mid 50s for most today, save for a few spots reaching low 60s south-central. Temps dip even lower tonight into the upper 20s to upper 30s. While it is still early for growing season, some patchy frost is possible tonight and widespread frost is anticipated Wednesday night. A ridge over the southeast CONUS begins to build late week while a trough deepens over the Rockies. This strengthens southerly flow and WAA increasing temps closer to normal by this weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s to low 50s. Patchy frost is possible again Thursday night, but no headlines are planned yet this week given slow start to growing season. In the wake of the weekend system, a strong mid level ridge looks to build over the Midwest, favoring the warming trend to continue into next week. CPC temperature outlooks both show the UP under ~65-70% chances for above normal temps to close out the month. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 116 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions prevail over the TAF sites through the period, except for up to 50% chances of transient MVFR ceilings at SAW this morning. Expect light winds primarily out of the northwest to north throughout the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Amended at 246 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Winds over the east settle below 20 kts this morning and likely remain sub-20 kts across the lake through Friday as high pressure persists over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Significant wave heights of 4-6 ft over the east settle below 4 ft by this afternoon and likely remain 4 ft or less the remainder of the forecast period. This light wind pattern may even persist into next week with no significant systems on the horizon this weekend and high pressure favored to return next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE...GS DISCUSSION...77/GS AVIATION...GS MARINE...77/GS  099 FXUS64 KEWX 200655 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 155 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier conditions during the day today as the atmosphere recovers from storms this morning. - Active weather pattern continues through the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend. Rounds of storms with heavy rain could lead to localized flooding.&& .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Early this morning, a complex of showers and thunderstorms was making its way south out of our area with only some lingering light activity expected behind it the next couple of hours. A stable atmosphere will be in place this morning into most of the afternoon will mainly dry conditions expected though an isolated shower can't be ruled out. Cloud cover and the cooler start to the morning will keep temperatures mainly in the 80s today with a light southerly wind. Late this afternoon and evening, we should begin to destabilize again. At the same time, another disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft will be moving over the area which should help scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop in the west. A corridor of moderate instability over West Texas into the western southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains along with sufficient shear values will bring another evening of an isolated severe storm risk as storms first move into the area mid afternoon or early evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the main hazards with the severe risk lessening as the storms continue east overnight. Additionally, a risk for flooding is seen as above normal moisture will allow for storms to produce heavy rain with high rain rates. Those that received rain last night will be more prone to flooding with this next round with this pattern continuing through the week. Another period of more stable conditions should be seen behind the passing complex of storms which will likely bring another period of mostly dry weather Thursday with cooler highs again in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A bit of a broken record in these discussions as daily rain chances continue into early week. Multiple disturbances within the upper- level southwesterly flow and moist air will be the main drivers for this wet pattern. Each round of storms will influence the following day's storm potential, so confidence on precise timing and placement for any activity is low in the long-term forecast. Guidance does continue to indicate some kind of disturbance aloft moving over the area late Thursday into Friday keeping the trend more favorable timing in the evening and overnight. Another period to look out for continues to be the weekend as shortwave moves over the area. For those with holiday weekend plans, we don't expect the entire weekend to be a washout but do prepare for stormy conditions at times that will be better known as we get closer. A messy synoptic pattern but near to above average moisture keep periods of low rain chances into next week. Each round of rainfall will continue to moisten/saturate soils, increasing the potential for runoff which may eventually lead to flash flooding or river flooding. Given the dependence on where each round of storms moves across, pinpointing exact rainfall totals is difficult though we do expect some widespread beneficial rainfall. Those that see storms continuing to track over their area could eventually see flooding and cannot rule out a Flood Watch later in the week or weekend. Continue to monitor the forecast and always have a way to receive warning information. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 147 AM CDTWed May 20 2026 The strongest thunderstorm activity is now south of terminals though lingering stratiform rain with isolated thunder will continue the next few hours. Drier weather then returns along with brief lowering of ceilings to MVFR to IFR before VFR conditions return this afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop in West Texas and move east into our area late afternoon or early evening. Have included a PROB30 group at KDRT to account for this activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 83 71 81 70 / 10 70 70 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 71 81 70 / 10 70 70 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 70 82 69 / 10 70 60 40 Burnet Muni Airport 79 67 79 67 / 10 70 80 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 85 68 85 69 / 30 90 20 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 81 69 79 68 / 10 60 80 40 Hondo Muni Airport 85 69 82 68 / 10 70 50 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 83 71 81 70 / 10 70 70 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 72 81 71 / 20 50 80 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 70 82 71 / 10 70 60 40 Stinson Muni Airport 85 70 82 71 / 10 70 60 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...27  147 FXUS65 KBYZ 200656 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1256 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening; main risks are small hail, erratic wind gusts and localized moderate rainfall. - Cool and wet weather system brings widespread rain and snow in the mountains above 7000 feet, tonight through Thursday. - Over a half inch of precip is expected along southern mountains and foothills (>75% chance). North aspects of southern mountains will see 6" or more of snowfall (80% chance). The opening of the Beartooth Highway on Friday may be impacted. - Warming trend Friday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Through next Tuesday... Water vapor imagery shows a distinct shortwave dropping thru BC/AB in northerly flow aloft, downstream of a strong upper level ridge off the Pacific coast. This wave is expected to form a weak mid level low as it reaches southern AB tomorrow, and is our primary weather-maker over the next 36hrs. This begins with increased t-storm potential this afternoon and evening, with high res models suggesting development beginning in our W/NW around noon (early start per the increasing synoptic scale ascent). Instability is very modest (100-400 j/kg) but the tall/skinny cape w/ relatively low freezing levels should support small hail, along with erratic wind gusts and localized moderate rainfall. Heads up to those w/ outdoor plans in the evening. A cold front arrives from the north in the late afternoon (pre- frontal temps should reach the 60s to low 70s) and the diurnal convection will evolve to a precip event tonight thru Thursday. As energy digs thru western MT into southeast ID, upslope N=NE winds will deepen and thus precip will become most widespread over our southern upslope areas, gradually shifting eastward thru the day tomorrow. Chances of at least 0.50" of rain are high in these upslope areas (>75%) but even Billings-Hardin could see a half inch (50% chance). Lesser amounts will fall over the north and east of Rosebud County (0.05-0.25"). Will need to monitor for a potential axis of enhanced frontogenesis as the trof pivots to our west, which along with the upsloping could produce over an inch of precip on the north aspects of the Beartooths/Pryors/northern Bighorns...and among these areas latest models show western Big Horn County has the greatest potential. In addition to the precip, snow will fall above 7kft with several inches of accumulation in the aforementioned upslope areas. The Beartooth Hwy is scheduled to open Friday but there may be some plowing needed first. Lower elevation high temps Thursday will be cool (upper 40s and 50s) but expect a return to the 60s Friday as the system exits and is replaced by rising heights. One final note, as the synoptic forcing shifts east Thursday there should be enough instability for the development of scattered diurnal showers on the back side of the trof. Friday through the weekend will trend warmer and be mostly dry, but there may be enough weak shortwave activity thru the backed zonal flow for isolated diurnal convection, at least over the mountains. Look for temps back to the 70s Saturday and into the low-mid 80s Sunday. The first half of next week will see the next Pacific trof begin to move inland in some fashion. Cluster analyses show high spread in potential solutions with this trof, ranging from an open wave across the northern Rockies to a deep low forming over the SW CONUS. Impossible to determine at this time, but generally speaking look for a warm start to the next work week (80s) then modest cooling and increasing chances of showers/t-storms per the advancing trof. If another dynamic low forms to our SW/W it may allow for a push of plains moisture and greater instability for potential t-storms. Something to monitor. JKL .AVIATION... VFR will prevail through the first half of today with mid clouds on the increase from an approaching weather system. An associated cold front will drop through the area this afternoon and evening bringing increasing chances for showers and weak thunderstorms. Wind gusts up to 25 kts are possible with the frontal passage, and thunderstorms will be capable of gusty and erratic winds to 30 kts, small hail and brief downpours. MVFR conditions are possible with the showers/thunderstorms, with showers becoming more prominent this evening, spreading east overnight. Mountains will become obscured this afternoon and evening due to rain/snow. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 068 043/056 039/069 045/079 051/085 053/089 054/082 4/T +8/T 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 12/T LVM 063 036/054 032/067 040/076 046/081 048/084 048/074 4/T +8/T 10/B 00/U 11/U 22/T 15/T HDN 070 041/057 037/071 040/079 046/085 049/089 051/083 2/T 99/T 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/T MLS 072 044/062 040/069 042/078 048/084 051/090 055/086 2/T 66/W 21/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/N 4BQ 071 042/058 040/066 041/076 047/083 051/089 056/086 2/T 26/T 52/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/N BHK 072 038/065 038/066 038/076 047/083 050/088 055/086 2/T 36/T 63/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/N SHR 067 038/049 033/064 035/073 040/081 043/087 045/082 2/T 2+/T 51/U 01/U 01/U 00/U 02/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings