299 FXUS65 KFGZ 200700 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1200 AM MST Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week and into the weekend, along with typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION...Aside from weak troughing over the west, quasi- zonal flow largely remains in control through much of this week. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected through at least at least Saturday as a result. Winds look to generally remain light, however the aforementioned troughing will keep some typical spring- time afternoon breezes (20-30 mph) over the higher terrain. A weak low looks to eject off the Pacific into the southwest early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase in PWATs from the resulting increase in moisture advection into Arizona. As of now, a few isolated afternoon showers and possibly thunderstorms look probable over the White Mountains this weekend, then potentially spreading to more of the higher terrain for Monday and Tuesday. However, surface moisture at this point still looks fairly minimal, so much of the activity at this time looks to be high-based in nature. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 20/06Z through Thursday 21/06Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, S-SW 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts daytime. OUTLOOK...Thursday 21/06Z through Saturday 23/06Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Daytime winds SW-W 5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20- 25 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%. Friday through Sunday....Continued dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on Friday, rising to 10-20% over the weekend. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  433 FXUS63 KGID 200702 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 202 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The Frost Advisory for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties will expire at 8AM this morning. - A handful of showers will move into a few western portions of the area this morning. A few more showers and non-severe storms will move in again later this evening and overnight tonight (35-65% chances, concentrated south of I-80). - Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances will return Thursday and Friday. Most area can expect to see between 0.25-0.5" of precipitation accumulation through Friday night. - Highs today and Thursday will stick in the upper 50s to mid 60s followed by a gradual warming trend back to the 80s by Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures this morning approaching the mid 30s across a few portions of the area north of I-80 will bring the potential for frost formation. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties through 7AM. The cooler temperatures that were observed yesterday will continue to stick around for the next three days as weak surface winds among mostly overcast skies will prevent highs from warming out of the mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows the next 3 nights should continue to fall between the upper 30s to lower 50s, generally only warming a few degrees each night. Higher surface pressure centered over the Plains/Midwest region today and tomorrow will serve as the damper to the surface winds. Light to steady winds out of the east to southeast will last through Thursday. Speeds will primarily stick between 5-10MPH with occasional gusts as high as 20MPH possible. The main story in the short-term will be the potential for precipitation that will come in in the form of several waves of showers and non-severe thunderstorms over the next several days (through Friday night). Starting out this morning with a few showers crawling up from the southwest, another more widespread coverage of showers and weak thunderstorms will push back in later tonight and into early Thursday morning (35-65% chances concentrated south of I- 80). There is generally not enough instability out to threaten any sort of severe weather threat (only 0-200J/kg of CAPE). Aloft, the continuation of intermountain west troughing will keep the area underneath a zone of weak isentropic assent paired with mid- level CVA along the downstream side of the mid-level trough. These features will provide continued support for developing areas of showers and weak thunderstorms across the foothills of the Rockies over the next few days. The waves of showers/storms will continue to track up into portions of central Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas should expected to see between mainly 0.25-0.5+" of precipitation through Friday night. The best individual precipitation chances currently lie overnight Wednesday as well as Thursday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures remain relatively cool today behind the system that resulted in multiple rounds of severe weather over the last 3-4 days. Tonight, temperatures are anticipated to drop into the 30s and 40s, aided by light winds and mostly clear skies under surface high pressure. Clouds are then anticipated to increase early Wednesday morning, which should keep temperatures from dropping much below 35 degrees. Nevertheless, this may result in some frost formation, potentially damaging sensitive plants in areas near/north of Highway 92. The Frost Advisory area is "generous," mainly because we are so far into the growing season already. Many areas, especially in southern parts of Howard, Sherman, and Nance counties, likely will not see any frost impact. Wednesday will remain cool, and rain is expected to slide in from the west as an upper trough pushes into the central Plains. Many areas will remain dry, but western zones could pick up 0.05-0.15". Later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, isolated to scattered showers/t-storms become possible, but instability is very limited and no severe weather is expected. Late Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is expected to cross the northern Plains, bringing more widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region. The severe threat remains minimal, but this COULD bring some relief to drought- stricken areas of western Nebraska. Low rain chances linger on Saturday, but overall things will trend drier and warmer for the Memorial Day weekend as upper level ridging returns to the north/central Plains. After almost a week of near to below- normal temperatures, 80s are expected to return for Sunday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will generally range from east to southeast between 5 to 10 knots. There is a small chance (around 20% to 30%) of MVFR ceilings at KEAR around 18z but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-046- 047. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Stump DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Schuldt  418 FXUS63 KSGF 200702 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 202 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light shower chances (20-50%) across the area through sunrise, dissipating into mid-morning. Residual flooding from previous heavy rainfall persists through today. - Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday. - Additional rain chances (40-70%) throughout the weekend with a gradual warming trend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 This Morning: A cooler morning to start this Wednesday with temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. Widespread stratiform clouds continue to envelop the area, with patchy areas of drizzle and fog resulting in reduced visibilities. As we progress through the overnight period, the 850mb front sinks through the region in the vicinity of lingering jet dynamics and lift. This will support scattered showers through sunrise, with any thunder chances (< 20%) remaining marginal at best. No severe or flooding are expected with this activity. As we progress into mid to late morning, any lingering showers will dissipate giving way to a cool and cloudy day across the Ozarks. This Afternoon-Tonight: A cooler afternoon across the area with NBM keeping highs in the middle to upper 60s areawide. Light east-northeast winds accompany the cooler temperatures. Residual flooding lingers through today, as heavy rainfall amounts resulted in rises along area waterways. The period of dry time will be short-lived as rain chances slowly increase overnight tonight into Thursday morning as additional mid-level energy ejects out across the central CONUS. Lows fall into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thursday-Friday: Ensemble guidance are in good agreement that shortwave energy translates through southwest flow and overspreads the region on Thursday. Moisture return will gradually tick up through Thursday across the southern half of the area with dewpoints reaching into the lower to middle 60s. Meanwhile, temperatures gradually rebound into Thursday with highs warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will be slow to overspread the area until Thursday evening/night, and persist into the overnight/Friday morning. Rain chances remain high (70-90%) through Friday morning, before gradually shifting east with the system's passage on Friday afternoon/evening. The environment remains rather benign in terms of supporting any severe weather, with instability limited across the area. However, any convection that does occur will increase the potential for heavy rainfall. WPC has highlighted the areas along and west of Highway 65 in a Slight (2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Thursday into Friday. This aligns well with our messaging, as the primary concern with this late week system will be localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Soils remain saturated across portions of the area, in particular along and north of Interstate 44. Elevated streamflows are being observed in this area. As more CAMs come into sight, we will work to pin down the area of heaviest rainfall and associated amounts. This Weekend: As we progress into the weekend, a gradual warming trend continues over the area with highs returning to near average in the upper 70s to lower 80s. High temperatures each day this weekend could be impacted by cloud cover and additional rain chances. Confidence is gradually increasing in weekend rain chances (40-70%), though there remains some uncertainties on the exact timing and location of each system. For the time being, we are not expecting all-day washouts. Next Week: An active pattern looks to persist into early next week as progress into late May. Additional rain chances are in the forecast, though confidence is low on the extent of coverage into early next week. Check back for updates. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Light drizzle/fog and IFR to LIFR ceilings are ongoing. Through the night, showers that have already started to develop will increase in coverage, including a low potential for lightning. Outside of showers, expect light drizzle/fog to continue. Ceilings are expected to gradually lift on Wednesday, improving to MVFR by late morning or early afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Titus  434 FXUS65 KGGW 200702 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 102 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A frontal passage will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An isolated storm or two may be on the stronger side with wind gusts to 60 mph. - A second round of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the ND border Thursday afternoon. - Warmer temperatures are expected beginning Friday with 80s for highs beginning Sunday onward. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Forecast begins with northwest flow running from British COlumbia through eastern Montana and to the central US Plains. A series of ridge trough couplets are embedded within this flow pattern. Today into Tonight: the first upper trough in NW flow moves into the area this morning. This system will bring a cold front across eastern montana this afternoon and evening with rain showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. SPC's HREF shows some isolated cells within this frontal passage producing wind gusts up to 60 mph which will need to be monitored. The passage itself looks like it will be a 6 hour trek across the area starting around noon and exiting around 6 to 7 PM. Precip will be very hit- and-miss with most areas receiving nothing but a few location getting 1 to 2 tenths of an inch max. Thursday: The surface trough that moves into the region during the previous afternoons kind of stalls out at the ND border and will become a focal point from the morning to afternoon hours for additional showers and isolated thunderstorms. These do not look severe yet at this time. Thursday night into Sunday: Conditions will clear and warm through these time periods with maybe a weak shower possible Saturday night. Sunday night onward: Synoptic ensembles are starting to firm up on a ridge moving into the region and then closing up into a high pressure system for a short time Monday and Tuesday with very warm temperatures. Butting up against this will be a deeply amplified trough across the Pacific Northwest. These two features will play chicken for awhile with a chance at the high/ridge over eastern Montana to break down and southern flow with strong thunderstorms to take over Tuesday to Thursday afternoon. If the ridge stays put, we'll be dry and hot. If it moves forward then we become wet quickly with possible severe Wx depending on timing. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes to NBM were focused to hourly PoPs in the late afternoon and evening along with during the day on Wednesday. Hourly NBM data had a definitive 6 hour bias that was throwing natural hourly trends off. Used and NPoP blend of available CAMs and shrink stretched up PoPs a few percent afterward to try to quick blend in a slightly better trend. Also did this for Wind and Wind Gust to better capture the timing of the frontal passage that was washed out by NBM. Confidence in timing any showers and thunderstorms today is HIGH. Confidence in severe winds gusts from cells embedded in the system Wednesday is LOW. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0345Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. DISCUSSION: Expect VFR and mid to high clouds across the region through the night and early morning Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area late morning to early afternoon and take about a 6 hour trek across the region. There is a outside chance (5-20%) for one or two cells to become severe with wind gusts up to 50kts, but the chance at any given terminal is too low to place in the TAFs directly till they are clear on radar this coming afternoon. Storms should exit all terminals by about 02Z before clearing out for most of the night with only and isolated showers possible from then on. LLWS: There is a small chance(10-30%) for some low level wind shear at KGDV and KSDY between 06Z and 12Z this morning. WIND: S to SW at 10 to 15 kts through mid morning. Veering W in the late morning. Briefly increasing to 15-25 kts with the frontal passage this afternoon. Becoming light and variable Wednesday evening. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  419 FXUS65 KPUB 200702 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 102 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the plains (storms expected to last well into the early AM hours over far eastern plains). - A few Strong to Severe Storms expected over the plains Thursday. - Gradual warming trend through the period (No significant fire weather concerns expected though through the period). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1259 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Today into Tonight... The main concern during the short term will be another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected over the southern mtns by early afternoon, moving onto the plains later this afternoon and over the far eastern plains this evening. Storms today are not expected to be all that strong, although small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially along the southern I-25 corridor. The one issue is the storms may last well into the early AM hours over the far eastern plains, especially north of US50. As for temp, it will be cool once again this afternoon, with max temps only int the U50s to L70s across the plains. The coolest weather over the plains will be over N El Paso county, with the warmest temperatures over the southern I-25 corridor, The San Luis Valley should see highs in the U60s. A couple of inches of snow will be possible at the higher elevations of the central mountains and Pikes Peak. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1259 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Overall trend in the weather during this period will be gradually warming temperatures. 70s on THursday will be replaced by temps approaching 90 by mid week next week. We will also it becoming drier. Fortunately, surface winds are not expected to be strong and widespread critical RH values are not anticipated, so fire weather concerns will be low. The main concern during this long term forecast period will be on Thursday as favorable shear will be in place and sufficient instability will be over the plains, and expect a good chance to see some rotating storms over the plains during this day as CAMS are showing some modest helicity swaths moving over the plains during the late afternoon and early evening time periods. Likewise I anticipate the possibility of large hail and damaging winds, with a low end tornado threat possible. SPC still has the fcst area under a marginal risk, but it does have a 2% percent tornado threat over all of the plains on the 06 UTC SWODY2. For Fri and Sat, we will see some thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, but expect the activity to be weaker and more isolated. Drier weather is expected the rest of the period, but we may see a ramp up in activity over the interior on Tuesday afternoon. \/Hodanish && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1102 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 KCOS and KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF period as thick low level clouds persist and keep ceiling heights low. In addition, ongoing rain is expected to persist into the portions of the overnight hours, which will bring reduced visibilities as well. This rain is expected to end by early morning, with dry conditions lasting into the afternoon hours. With that said, showers and thunderstorms are again anticipated to push over the higher terrain and toward the TAF sites. These showers and storms may bring brief periods of reduced visibilities and sudden increase in winds. Otherwise, winds will continue to remain around and less than 10 knots through this TAF period. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. While dry conditions are expected through this TAF period, rain showers will be around with the San Luis Valley tonight, and these may impact the TAF site, bringing slightly reduced visibilities if so. Winds will remain light, at and less than 10 knots, through tomorrow morning, with winds quickly increasing in magnitude tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing develops. Otherwise, low to mid level clouds will steadily rise in heights through tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...SIMCOE  530 FXUS63 KLBF 200705 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances increase today across southwestern NE into the central Sandhills, with highs from the mid 50s to near 60. - Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with 60%+ potential for seeing wetting rainfall across much of southwest Nebraska. - Temperatures warm early next week with dry conditions before a deep upper-level low approaches from the west towards mid-week leading to low-confidence in precise extended forecast details. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM CDT for eastern portions of north central Nebraska, where skies will remain mostly clear, light and variable winds, and low reach 33 to 35 degrees, with areas of frost. An increase in light south winds and increasing cloudiness overnight should limit frost formation to the west. Today, a disturbance currently over central Colorado will lift northeast this morning into the southeast panhandle and southwest, and the central Sandhills this afternoon. This will bring likely rain chances to areas mainly near and south of Highway 2 and mainly cloudy skies, with stratus persisting through much of the day. Warm air advection indicated mainly in the H7 to H6 layer with weak frontogenesis diminishing in the afternoon as the disturbance lifts northeast today. South of Highway 2, HREF probability of a tenth of an inch or more is 60 to 80 percent, with a 60 percent probability of a quarter inch or more portions of southwest Nebraska. Rain is not expected to reach portions of the northeast today. Highs only in the mid 50s southwestern areas, to near 60 northeast. Tonight, skies clear some across the north. Another disturbance will move from eastern CO, across Kansas and far southern Nebraska. Far southwest Nebraska will maintain a slight chance for showers overnight. At this time, looks like temperatures will remain above any frost potential from 35 to around 40. Thursday, the next system will deepen from Montana into the central Rockies. Downstream, moisture will be on the increase from the Southern Plains into western Nebraska as surface low pressure deepens across New Mexico into southern Colorado. Southeast winds will become breezy across the west by afternoon. Highs to range from the mid 60s northern Nebraska, to the upper 50s to lower 60s south. There will be low chances for showers in the morning across the south. A lead disturbance will extend from southeast Wyoming into the Colorado Front Range by late afternoon. This will bring increasing chances for showers and few thunderstorms across the west and south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thursday Night/Friday...by late afternoon, convection should be ongoing along the I-25 corridor from eastern Wyoming down through central Colorado. This occurs as lee troughing draws southeasterly moist flow up to the Front Range. This occurs as upper-level troughing crosses the Great Basin and approaches the Continental Divide. Within a moderately sheared environment, a narrow ribbon of modest instability should support a limited severe threat well to our southwest. As alluded to, this narrow ribbon of greater MUCAPE will not extend far east. That said, persistent advection of theta-e rich air off the surface and weak MUCAPE around 250-500 j/kg should sustain convection ahead of the main upper-level low into southwest Nebraska. Dry air does not appear to be a limiting factor, as persistent southeasterly flow will maintain 7+ g/kg mixing ratios which is near the median value of LBF RAOB climatology for late May. While light showers are favored in the evening hours, the convection originating from I-25 should begin to move into southwest Nebraska near Midnight with further expansion of convection through the early morning Friday. NBM probabilities for rainfall ramp up quickly during this timeframe: with potential for exceeding 0.10" reaching 80%+ Friday morning for much of the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska, and nearly 60-80% probabilities for exceeding 0.25" in the same timeframe for the same areas. The increased low- level moisture and ongoing precipitation is expected to hold temperatures in check and Thursday night lows have been boosted across the board as a result. Through early Friday, the main upper- level will cross the Central Rockies and begin to transition from neutral to negative tilt. Precipitation will continue through the day with ample instability to support thunderstorms. With stronger shear in place to the south, the threat for severe weather should favor western Kansas. Afternoon highs may be on the cooler side with values only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s. A trailing surface trough will settle into western Nebraska by later in the day and this along with the passing trough axis will bring a swift end to precipitation west to east across the area though some wrap around moisture from the h5 low may persist across our northern zones. Behind departing precipitation, low temperatures should again fall to the lower 40s with a few locations threatening the upper 30s. Saturday and beyond...heights build across the Central High Plains behind the exiting mid-level disturbance. Ridging will build across the Desert Southwest and cross the Rockies by early next week. This will coincide with warming temperatures as NBM guidance show median temperatures at their warmest values of the forecast period: the middle to upper 80s by Sunday and Monday. This will promote well above normal temperatures with dry conditions for much of the region. The upper pattern becomes fairly convoluted towards the middle of next week as a deep h5 low takes shape over the Pacific Northwest and settles east. Progression of this system is somewhat uncertain, with deterministic solutions varying on timing and placement of this and downstream influencing features. Because of this, confidence in extended forecast details is limited and will likely remain this way until extended guidance begins to hone in on a similar solution. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the first half of the period with degraded conditions for late morning Wednesday. Mid and high level clouds continue to stream in to southwest Nebraska but should pose little if any impact initially. Through the night, CIGs should lower as a disturbance approaches from the west. This should lead to increasing precipitation chances and MVFR CIGs. Leaned on HREF guidance for timing into LBF terminal which favors mid to late morning. Activity should remain light enough intensity to preclude more significant impacts. Expect precipitation to depart by late afternoon with a return to VFR conditions likely. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ006-007-009- 010-028-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...NMJ  504 FXUS65 KREV 200704 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1204 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures warm to around 5-10 degrees above normal by mid to late week. * Warming temperatures will support afternoon cumulus buildups near the Sierra, with low-end thunder chances Thursday into the weekend. * Afternoon west breezes continue this week, with somewhat stronger breezes possible by Memorial Day into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Chances to hit 90 in W NV and 80 in the Tahoe Basin this weekend has quickly dropped to near zero as a shortwave impacts the area. More details on that in subsequent paragraphs. For now, highs will be 5-10 degrees above average with afternoon temps topping out in the mid 80s and 70s for valleys and higher elevations, respectively. Typical west winds and dry conditions will prevail for much of the area through at least Friday. For the Sierra and Sierra Front, we're seeing chances for showers and thunderstorms this week. Surface heating will allow for cumulus buildups along the higher terrain today, continuing through Friday. Thursday, those buildups will mature into shower chances, mainly south of the Tahoe Basin through Mono county. Thunderstorm chances remain below 5% and CAPE values barely reach 50 J/kg. Some precip may fall out of the sky with those juicier clouds (model soundings do show inverted-V profiles, though), but any accumulations will be light. Friday looks to be more impactful with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances expanding into the Tahoe Basin and the Sierra Front. CAPE values increase to 100-200 J/kg, with PWATs increasing to 0.5-0.6". Isolated shower chances with the occasional lightning strike may bring impacts to recreation. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors! Model agreement remains mixed as we look towards the weekend; they agree on a shortwave, but not necessarily the placement nor the timing of said shortwave. Additionally, the models are having difficulty resolving just how deep the shortwave may get. This could bring additional impacts for the holiday weekend, including gustier winds and isolated thunderstorms. Check back here for more concrete details as we get closer. -Giralte && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the week with no significant visibility or precipitation impacts at the main terminals. Winds remain typical for late May, with afternoon west to southwest breezes most days. Peak gusts will generally remain around 15-25 kt. Afternoon cumulus buildups are possible near the Sierra crest west of MMH Wednesday, with low-end isolated shower or thunderstorm chances Thursday into the weekend near the Sierra, northeast California, and far western Nevada. Impacts will be limited to isolated mountain obscurations and possible gusty, erratic winds. -Johnston/Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  627 FXUS62 KCAE 200706 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 306 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Previous forecast adjustments mainly continued with this forecast package. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAF. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Above normal temperatures likely through Thursday; some uncertainty in temperatures this weekend. - 2. Rain chances increase late week onward. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures likely through Thursday; some uncertainty in temperatures this weekend. Strong upper ridge expected to persist over the eastern CONUS into the upcoming weekend. This will generally bring above normal temperatures to the forecast area over the next several days, however heat indices are expected to remain well below any headline criteria. With that in mind, there is some uncertainty regarding temperatures particularly Friday and Saturday, as there remains some potential for weak cold air damming over mainly the northern half of the forecast area. The latest round of model guidance continues to depict some ridging of surface high pressure south along the eastern Appalachians with strengthening southwest flow aloft. Depending on the strength of this wedge, it is possible that temperatures will be several degrees cooler than blended guidance currently advertises. Temperatures on Friday were therefore adjusted a few degrees cooler, especially impacting the northern portion of the forecast area. It remains to be seen whether these conditions will linger for several days or not, but the blocking pattern in place does indicate the potential is there. It was also noted that the NBM and LREF interquartile ranges for high temps Friday into early next week are 5-8 degrees F depending on the model, further supporting lower confidence in the high temperature forecast over the holiday weekend. Key Message 2: Rain chances increase late week onward. Dry conditions persist today with the ridge overhead and high pressure offshore. Expect just some fair weather cu with the peak heating of the day. The upper low offshore under the ridge has created a blocking pattern which is keeping conditions stagnant. There looks to be a slight shift eastward of the large scale pattern in the coming days, with the potential for weak CAD conditions to develop. IVT will be increasing across the Deep South into the TN valley, however it still looks like the best moisture will remain to our west, though potentially as close as the Upstate. Even so, persistent southwest flow aloft and the potential for some overrunning should lead to increased moisture over the Southeast from Thursday through Memorial Day. There remains discrepancies between the ECENS and NAEFS forecast PWAT values, with the EC generally showing better moisture for our forecast area. Initially, it appears the best chance of rain will be Friday into Saturday when the wedge develops. Additional periods of increased rain potential are then expected into early next week, as a few shortwaves move through the larger scale flow and provide additional upper support. It still appears QPFs should be fairly modest given limited moisture transport and the overall upper ridge still in place. NBM probabilities of greater than 0.5" through 00Z Monday range from 80% west of the I-20 corridor to about 60% near the I-95 corridor. These values then drop to 65% and 35% respectively when looking at potential of greater than 1". && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions with brief restrictions possible before sunrise. A similar synoptic pattern in place early this morning with high pressure offshore and southerly flow leading to continued lingering low level moisture in place. As a result, with models generally supportive of brief restrictions and favoring a persistence forecast, have included brief restrictions early this morning at AIK/AGS/OGB with IFR visibilities possible. Any low clouds or fog expected to dissipate shortly after sunrise with southerly winds around 5 knots and a few cumulus around 6kft. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase Thursday and into this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EC AVIATION...96  641 FXUS64 KMAF 200706 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Showers and storms are expected today beginning early this afternoon and continuing into this evening. Any strong to severe storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. We will also monitor for flash flooding. - Shower and storm chances continue through this weekend as additional disturbances move overhead. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The cold front that moved through the area on Tuesday has washed out across the southern half of the region and will be one of the catalysts for convection during the day today. In addition to the front, plenty of moisture and instability will be available to help some storms become strong to severe. Forecast soundings continue to show plenty of shear, 1000-2000J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates favorable for large hail and damaging winds in the most organized storms. Hi-res ensembles show activity getting an early start on the day around or just afternoon with convection developing near the Davis Mountains/Pecos River Valley and moving east into the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Coverage increases during the afternoon and some upscale growth into multicellular clusters or lines of storms may occur before exiting the region tonight after sunset. Daytime highs to the north of the stalled front will struggle to reach out of the 70s as low clouds keep temperatures from moving much. To the south and west of the front, mainly west of the Pecos River, highs will reach into the 80s with 90s along the Rio Grande. Tonight sees a lull in convection as the daytime activity decays or moves off to the east. The dryline establishes itself west of Midland/Odessa near or just west of the TX/NM border. The dryline's position and any leftover boundaries from today will impact where any convection develops on Thursday. Coverage overall will be lower as the upper level support available for storms today will be weaker for Thursday. Similar to today though, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with any severe storms that develop. Localized flash flooding will also be possible, particularly from Reagan County southward into eastern Pecos and portions of Terrell County that saw significant rainfall on Tuesday. Highs on Thursday remain below normal, but increase into the 80s for most. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thursday night sees activity once again decay and move off to the east of our area. Friday and through the weekend, a similar pattern continues where daytime convection will be dependent on where the dryline sets up in the CWA and the timing of any upper level disturbances that move in from the west. Medium to long range guidance shows this occurring roughly each day Friday through Sunday with a decrease in activity for Monday. Temperatures through the weekend will hover near or just below normal in the 80s to low 90s. Unsurprisingly, Rio Grande Village and the surrounding low Desert of Big Bend may still reach the century mark on those days, but temperatures will be otherwise unremarkable for late May. Given the isolated to scattered nature of each day's showers and storms, rain amounts will be tough to pin down. Rain chances continue evening into the middle of next week, but that portion of the forecast remains subject to change. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Easterly to southeasterly flow holds on across the area with speeds around 10-15kts with occasional gusts around 20kts. MVFR CIGs move in from the east between 10-12z and linger into the day today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 59 81 61 / 60 50 30 10 Carlsbad 82 59 90 60 / 30 30 10 10 Dryden 84 64 86 65 / 50 50 10 20 Fort Stockton 83 61 88 63 / 50 50 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 79 59 81 59 / 20 10 0 0 Hobbs 73 55 84 56 / 60 20 20 10 Marfa 85 52 82 50 / 40 20 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 75 60 83 62 / 70 30 10 10 Odessa 75 60 84 63 / 70 30 10 10 Wink 80 60 88 61 / 50 30 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93  616 FXUS64 KOUN 200706 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through early next week. - Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next week. A few strong to severe storms are possible on Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure, centered over the north-central Plains, will continue to provide for northeasterly winds today. Isentropic ascent could lead to patchy drizzle/fog and a few showers this morning. As isentropic ascent weakens this afternoon, ceilings will gradually lift and we may see a little sun. With extensive stratus, afternoon temperatures will only peak in the 60's to 70's. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A shortwave embedded within southwest flow aloft, coupled with weak upslope flow, will provide for a low chance of showers/storms again this evening across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Rain chances will increase overnight and spread across central Oklahoma, with high POPs during the day on Thursday due to the approach of the upper wave. Abundant cloud-cover will keep high temperatures below- average on Thursday (upper 60's to mid 70's) with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely. Given anomalously high precipitable water content, which is prog'd to be well above the 90th percentile, efficient/heavy rainfall appears likely during the day on Thursday. Storm total QPF of 1 to 2 inches is forecast for areas along/east of the I-44 corridor. Locally higher amounts (2-4 inches) are possible with thunderstorms, which will bring the risk of flash flooding. CAMS would suggest this risk is initially southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas in the morning and then southeastern Oklahoma by afternoon. By Friday morning, surface winds return to the south and temperatures climb into the upper 70's to mid 80's. A northern stream trough ejects over the central plains on Friday with the H500 jet maxima passing north of our area. A few models (NAM/GFS) suggest the dryline may advance into portions of W/SW Oklahoma on Friday afternoon, but for now, the model consensus keeps the dryline west of the 100th meridian. Despite this, there is a conditional severe storm risk on Friday afternoon/evening over northwest/western Oklahoma - owing mainly to moderate instability, given meager wind speeds aloft and weak forcing. Hail up to the size of golfballs and severe wind gusts are possible if storm development is realized. Shower and storm chances then spread across the rest of Oklahoma on Friday night with signs of a potential MCS propagating across the area overnight. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The upcoming holiday weekend is forecast to be on the cool-side for Oklahoma standards, with highs in the upper 70's to mid-80's. Shower/storm chances increase Saturday afternoon with precipitation likely by Saturday evening in association with a weak upper trough. Moderate to strong instability could lead to strong to severe storm chances late Saturday. However, organized severe storms could be tough to come by given weak shear. Rain chances generally decrease Sunday through Tuesday, with the higher probabilities over southeastern Oklahoma and the return of seasonable temperatures. Thompson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Continues to look like widespread MVFR along with periods of IFR ceilings expected through the forecast period. There remains a good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday morning before we get a break with increasing chances again tomorrow evening. Otherwise, east to northeast winds of mainly 8-12kts across all the terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 68 58 70 59 / 20 60 90 50 Hobart OK 71 57 73 58 / 20 60 70 40 Wichita Falls TX 74 60 74 59 / 20 70 80 30 Gage OK 71 52 70 54 / 20 60 60 30 Ponca City OK 67 55 69 58 / 0 50 70 60 Durant OK 78 65 74 64 / 10 50 90 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...30  854 FXUS63 KDVN 200710 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 210 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a cooler than normal second half of the week, rain chances will be on the increase just before the weekend. - A pattern change over the weekend will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the area next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Today: High pressure across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region will bring dry and seasonably cool conditions to the area with highs in the low to mid 60s. Light NE winds are expected through the day mainly under 15 mph. It will be cool again tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s for much of the area. Thursday: As the high pressure system begins to shift more into the eastern Great Lakes region, easterly winds will increase locally (gusting around 20 mph) and act to hold the dry air in place with dewpoints remaining in the 40s. Forecast highs are only a touch warmer in the mid/upper 60s. Due to the dry low- levels, most of the day should be dry with only low chances for spotty light rain/sprinkles across the west (10-15%). Increasing moisture advection aloft at night will result in better chances for rain late (20-50%), especially across the south/southwest outlook area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thursday night through Friday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of a storm system. Low to medium (20-40%) confidence on rainfall. The second half of the work week will be characterized by cooler than normal temperatures. The global models have a storm system forecast to impact the Midwest late in the week but there are timing differences. Interestingly, most ensemble members of the global models take the main surface low east of the Mississippi which raises questions regarding the overall rainfall potential for the area. Based on the overall large scale picture, the various global models are indicating Friday morning and afternoon as being the most likely time period for any rain to occur. Here the model consensus has a 50-80% chance of rain. Rain would then linger into Friday evening before ending. Overall rainfall amounts will be variable; some locations will see under 0.25 inches of rain while some may see close to a half inch. Sunday through Tuesday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of warmer than normal temperatures The holiday weekend will be mainly dry although a rogue diurnal shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Starting Sunday the pattern change will be noticeable as temperatures trend above normal and are then expected to remain above normal next week. All models show an upper level ridge building along the east coast which will place the Midwest in southwest flow aloft. Humidity levels will be on the increase with dew points raising initially into the upper 50s and lower 60s; tolerable for all but the most sensitive people. Starting Tuesday, humidity levels will be much more noticeable and uncomfortable as dew points climb into the mid 60s. The increased moisture combined with the very warm temperatures and a passing upper level disturbance is expected to result in mainly diurnal convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right now the model consensus has rain chances at 15 to 25 percent. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with light NW winds turning to the NNE on Wednesday, generally around 10 kts or less. An area of low clouds between 3000-5000 ft AGL will linger near DBQ through the overnight before dissipating early Wednesday AM but still anticipating mainly VFR ceilings there. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...08/ZU AVIATION...Uttech  211 FXUS65 KRIW 200713 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 113 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Virga showers will occur this afternoon, developing over the western mountains and moving over the Bighorn, Wind River and Upper Green River Basins. Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with any passing shower. - Precipitation arrives from the northwest late tonight and becomes widespread Thursday. Cooler temperatures by Thursday evening could lead to a period of light snow in upslope- favored areas around Lander and Beaver Rim. - Forecast trends continue to favor widespread high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s for the three-day Memorial Day holiday weekend. Other than a few late day showers, conditions look dry each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 The warming trend continues today, but temperatures will still be below normal for central and southern portions of the CWA. Eastern portions of the Bighorn Basin will have near normal highs near 70F. Virga showers will be more widespread across the CWA this afternoon, as winds aloft back to the west-southwest through the day. Most of the showers will develop over the western mountains and move over the Bighorn, Wind River and Upper Green River Basins through the afternoon. Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with these showers, as dewpoint depressions will range between 30 and 50 degrees. Winds outside of any potential outflow will be light, 20 mph or less. Precipitation chances will become more focused over northwestern portions tonight as the storm drops southward, gradually pushing east and south into the Bighorn Basin, the western valleys and the Upper Green River Basin through the overnight hours. Snow levels will be as high as 9500 ft early in the evening and drop to around 7000 ft by 12Z Thursday. The associated cold front with this incoming storm system will drop southward over the CWA through the overnight hours as well, extending along a Casper-to-Riverton-to Kemmerer line by 12Z Thursday. The front will then slowly push through Natrona and Sweetwater counties through the rest of the morning, with a leeside low developing over northeast portions of WY by 18Z. The aforementioned area of precipitation will continue to move over the CWA through the rest of the day. Model trends have warmed the associated 700mb cold pool that pushes through the Bighorn and Wind River Basins during the afternoon and are now forecasted to be around minus 4C/minus 5C (snow levels as low as 6000 ft). Areas along and north of a Meeteetse-to-Lovell line could still see rain changing over to snow after 18Z. However, precipitation looks to end during the afternoon along a Jackson-to-Cody-to-Lovell line as drier air begins to advect in from the northwest behind the storm. Similar conditions could occur at Lander by 00Z with a greater chance for accumulating snow. There will be an added upslope component, aided by a potential 700mb low moving along the Divide between 00Z and 06Z. This could be enough to dynamically cool the column and lead to snow for the Lander Foothills. Current forecast is for conditions to quickly dry out from west to east through the overnight hours Thursday night, but if the storm slows down precipitation could continue over central and southern portions through 12Z Friday. Initial snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches are forecasted over the Absaroka, Wind River and the northern half of the Bighorn Mountains, with up to 4 inches over the Tetons, Gros Ventres and portions of Yellowstone. Temperatures rebound quickly on Friday, with a chance for showers over the far western mountains again in the afternoon as a weak shortwave moves over the area. Afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms will be possible over the holiday weekend as highs reach the middle to upper 80s by Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1042 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals Northwest flow aloft backs to the west as a shortwave drops south toward the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon. Weak showers develop over the mountains 19Z-21Z/Wednesday and move east into the basins and valleys around KJAC and KBPI. Any impacts would be brief and confidence is not high enough to include PROB30, with KJAC being the most likely terminal. Shortwave energy and deeper moisture reaches northwest Wyoming around KJAC late in the period, so a PROB30 group has been added beginning at 04Z/Thursday. In general, cloud cover increases and begins to slowly lower after 00Z/Thursday. Wednesday afternoon westerly surface wind 10-18kts decreases to 7- 10kts around 02Z/Thursday. Mountain tops occasionally obscured after 00Z/Thursday over northwest Wyoming. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals All terminals to be VFR through the forecast period. Weak showers develop over the Absaroka and Wind River Ranges 19Z-21Z/Wednesday and slowly track east into the basins during the afternoon. Impacts are likely to be confined to gusty outflow wind 25-35kts, with convection around KCOD the most likely to produce these gusts. Otherwise, KCPR to see 10-18kt westerly wind during the day with occasional late day westerly wind 9-13kts at KRIW and KLND. The arrival of more robust shortwave energy in northwest Wyoming leads to a better chance of light rain showers at KCOD late in the period. This shortwave will begin to push a cold front accompanied by northerly surface wind through the Bighorn Basin after about 03Z/Thursday. Mountain tops obscured after 00Z/Thursday in the Absaroka Range. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for WYZ005-006-011- 016>020. && $$ DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...CNJ/LaVoie  341 FXUS63 KLMK 200716 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 316 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Periods of showers and storms will move across southern Indiana and portions of north-central Kentucky this morning. Heavy rainfall will be possible with localized flooding across southern Indiana. * Another round of showers and storms is expected this afternoon. A marginal risk of strong/severe storms exists across the east- central and eastern Kentucky with damaging winds being the main threat. * Busy weather pattern will ramp back up late Thursday and through the holiday weekend with episodic bouts of showers/storms with heavy, but welcome rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Broad southwest flow continues aloft across the region this morning. A small perturbation moving northeast within this flow has helped kick off a persistent band of showers/storms from western Kentucky into southwestern Indiana. This corridor of convection is rooted within the low-level jet axis and also resides in a PWAT plume extending from west TN northeastward into southern Indiana. Within this corridor PWAT values are running in the 1.5-1.9 inch range. This convection will move off to the northeast through the remainder of the overnight hours and move across southern Indiana where recent rainfall has fallen in the last 24-36 hours. The convection has generated some cool outflow which is surging eastward toward the I- 65 corridor. PWAT values do decrease markedly east of the I-65 corridor. Given that we have some elevated instability in the I-65 corridor and points west, expect this outflow to generate some additional shower/storms from Hartford northeast through the Louisville metro over the next few hours. Shear remains very marginal here, so severe weather is not anticipated. However, a swath of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will move across saturated soils over southern Indiana and may produce some local hydro issues this morning. Current flood watch over southern Indiana continues to look good and no headline changes will be made with this forecast. Moving into the daytime hours, surface cold front off to our west this morning will move into the region this morning and into the afternoon hours. As this occurs, another small perturbation aloft will move northeast across the region and produce another round of convection across the region. As the cold front heads eastward through Kentucky, some diurnal heating will be noted across the central and eastern portions of the forecast area. MLCAPE is forecast to rise into the 800-1300 J/kg range this afternoon. Model soundings show rather poor mid-level lapse rates, but the low-level lapse rates are pretty steep. That, along with convergence along the front should allow widespread showers with some embedded thunderstorms to track across the region. Some of the storms could be strong this afternoon, mainly east of the I-65 corridor. Main threats will be heavy rainfall and gusty thunderstorm winds. Highs today will feature a gradient with readings only reaching the low- mid 70s across the west, with upper 70s to lower 80s out in the I-75 corridor. Surface cold front is expected to continue eastward this evening with showers ending from northwest to the southeast into the late overnight period. Cool northerly flow will usher in some cooler air into the region. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-upper 50s across southern Indiana with lower 60s across southern Kentucky. For Thursday, we'll see a brief pause in the wet weather as the front stalls out to our south. Blended PoPs keep some chances of showers down across southern KY, but this looks a bit too aggressive and I expect those PoPs to decrease over the next few runs. Highs on Thursday will be a little cooler than normal with readings only reaching the lower 70s over southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Mid-upper 70s will be found over the southern part of Kentucky. The stalled out front will start to return northward late Thursday night as a warm front. Ahead of that warm front, another round of showers is likely to develop in advance of that feature. Lows will range from the upper 50s over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky to the lower 60s over southern Kentucky. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 For the extended portion of the forecast period, unsettled weather looks likely for Friday and through the Memorial Day weekend as broad southwest flow will remain in place across the region. Several weak perturbations aloft will move through the region bringing episodic bouts/rounds of showers and storms to the region. Now, this doesn't appear to be a total washout in all places. However, several rounds of showers/storms will be moving across the region and will bring heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds at times. The upper level pattern will flatten out a bit by Monday with a possible split flow pattern developing as we may get a cut off low to develop over portions of Texas. Confluent flow east of the cutoff low across the Ohio Valley will allow a frontal boundary to remain nearly stationary across the region and this feature will be a focus of renewed convective development through the end of the forecast period. Moisture transport into the region will be high and PWATs will be running well above climatology here. So periods of heavy rainfall are expected. This rainfall will be welcome to much of Kentucky that has seen a rather dry period of weather of late. QPF amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible across the region with locally higher amounts in areas that see training. While much of this rainfall could see good infiltration into the ground, we could end up seeing some hydro problems develop in areas that have seen recent rainfall. Highs on Friday will generally be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Temperatures for Saturday through Tuesday will see daytime highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Looking past the 7 day period, longer range guidance suggests that we could see some high latitude blocking redevelop over Canada which will result in a fairly amplified flow pattern across the CONUS. There is a pretty decent signal in the data suggesting above normal rainfall closing out May and heading into early June, though temperatures look to remain seasonal through this time frame. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 For the remainder of the overnight period, conditions will start off as VFR at the terminals with ceilings gradually lowering toward dawn. Scattered convection will be possible, mainly west of a line from BWG to HNB. Surface cold front will push through the region after dawn which will allow winds to shift to the northwest. As we move into the late morning hours, an upper level perturbation will move northeast along the sagging front which will kick off additional showers/storms, mainly east of a line from BWG to LEX. Cigs will likely drop into the IFR range with MVFR vsbys due to rain/storms. Convective activity will push off to the east toward the end of the period with IFR cigs remaining in place. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ032. IN...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....MJ AVIATION.....MJ  356 FXUS65 KVEF 200716 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1216 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend continues through Memorial Day Weekend, with afternoon highs climbing to 6 to 8 degrees above-normal. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday. Today will be the coolest day of the forecast period as heights rise over the region in the wake of last weekend's windy trough. The Desert Southwest will remain situated between an eastern Pacific area of high pressure to the west and persistent troughing in the central CONUS to the east. As a result, expect occasional breezy afternoons as shortwave troughs ride along our northwest flow aloft. HeatRisk will peak Saturday through Monday, with widespread Minor (Level 1 on a scale of 0 to 4), and pockets of Moderate (Level 2) in the lower desert valleys such as Death Valley, Moapa Valley, and the Colorado River Valley. Increased outdoor activity can be expected with the holiday weekend, so people are encouraged to bring along with them plenty of water, sunscreen, and take frequent breaks in the shade and/or air conditioning. There is a continued signal that unsettled weather returns for the middle of next week, but details are murky at this time. Stay tuned to the forecast if you have travel or outdoor recreation plans! && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Northeasterly winds will become northwesterly overnight, dropping to around 5-10KT, before veering to the northeast again by late Tuesday morning. Winds thereafter will remain around 8KT or less, gradually veering to the southeast through the afternoon and becoming variable after sunset. VFR conditions will continue with a few high clouds around 25kft expected to move into the area Tuesday evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds areawide will drop to around 5-10KT through the night with gusty northerly winds returning by mid-morning at the Colorado River terminals. Gusts will peak at around 25KT through mid-afternoon. Elsewhere, winds will generally remain under 10KT. VFR conditions prevail areawide, with bands of high clouds around 25kft across southern areas this evening, and increasing mid-level and high clouds from the north late in the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Berc For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  467 FXUS61 KBTV 200721 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 321 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes were made to the forecast. Breezes remain today as a cold front moves through the region bringing sharply cooler conditions for the end of the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Temperatures trend lower today but remain 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages for many locations before trending sharply cooler for Thursday. Some locations outside the Champlain Valley may experience some frost Thursday night. 2. Breezy winds continue today and tonight as a front sweeps through the region bringing some chances of showers as well. 3. Chances for showers continue at times early next week while temperatures trend a bit warmer. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, but remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Warmest spots will be in southern Vermont where there will be potential for more heating ahead of the boundary. Highs in the 70s are forecast with low 80s for southern Vermont locations. Northwest flow will dominate behind the front bringing sharply cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday with highs likely in the mid/upper 50s to around 60 degrees , then 60s respectively. This will be around 10 degrees below seasonal averages on Thursday before trending back to near normal by Friday. Temperatures continue to moderate over the weekend back to around seasonal averages with highs near 70 degrees for the Champlain Valley. Thursday night, high pressure is favored to be overhead with temperatures likely falling below 40 degrees in the Adirondacks and across northeastern Vermont. With a very dry airmass over the region, frost potential will rise. KEY MESSAGE 2: Winds will be breezy today with flow turning northwest behind a cold front. Gusts will likely range 20 to 25 mph for most locations with up to 30 mph for typically windier locations like the Hwy 11 corridor in northern New York and along Lake Champlain. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the broad portion of Lake Champlain. Gusts will likely linger over Lake Champlain tonight before decreasing Thursday with high pressure moving overhead. Showers chances will continue this morning and remain possible along the front as it swings through today, but amounts will generally be light and less than 0.1". KEY MESSAGE 3: There remains some notable spread in potential for showers both on Sunday and Monday. Generally the 00Z guidance has shifted chances for rain slightly, such that Sunday is more likely to be dry and Monday more likely to be showery as an upper level ridge departs and a weak low pressure area slides across our region. The potential for rain on Sunday is higher early in the day, tied to a band of mid-level frontogenesis lifting northeastward across our region. Therefore, midday onward conditions should trend dry. That being said, it remains very possible that precipitation is spotty or non-existant given the potential that the ridge of high pressure in place causes precipitation to be mainly virga. It also appears rain on Monday (Memorial Day) is favored for the morning, although again the model spread is high enough to expect this forecast to change. Therefore, keep abreast of the forecast if you have holiday plans; it will probably not be an all day rain with a progressive westerly upper level pattern and lack of a stationary boundary. All in all, while rain could impact outdoor activities somewhat, thunder chances are minimal through this period. Precipitation will probably not be hydrologically significant with rainfall amounts mainly ranging from about 0.1" (reasonable low amount) to 1" (reasonable high amount) before we move back into a drier pattern. With chances for showers decreasing moving into Tuesday, temperatures will tend to rise above normal, currently forecast to reach the low to mid 70s following a couple of days with highs mainly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail early this morning with some LLWS through 10Z, especially at our higher elevation terminals, in a frontal zone with limited moisture. There are some isolated showers with generally light precipitation such that impacts are not expected. Have maintained some prob 30 at sites including SLK and EFK when chances for a shower are highest this morning, and a tempo for lower ceilings at SLK where probabilities of IFR cloud bases at 11Z currently exceed 30%. Otherwise a cold front will largely move through uneventfully from about 12Z through 15Z. Behind the boundary skies will trend clear as dry, breezy westerly winds develop with frequent gusts largely 20 to 25 knots. Winds will shift northerly by 00Z, and gusts should continue at sites like BTV and MPV through the remainder of the period. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Gradient winds are expected to come up after sunrise bringing more consistent northwesterly gusts around 25kts over the broad waters. As a result, have opted to keep the Lake Wind Advisory going despite the respite in wind gusts. Tonight, flow turns more northerly and aligns with the major axis of Lake Champlain favoring increased gusts up to 30kts and waves building towards the southern shores. Much lighter winds are expected Thursday with high pressure building over the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Boyd AVIATION...Kutikoff MARINE...Boyd  448 FXUS64 KSJT 200720 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 220 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible this afternoon and tonight mainly in Crockett county, Concho Valley and I-10 corridor. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms today into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 With afternoon heating and a weak embedded shortwaves CAMs are indicating scattered showers to develop this afternoon, particularly in western zones including Crockett county and Concho Valley mid afternoon, which move east in the late afternoon. A second stronger band of showers and thunderstorm is then indicated moving through tonight, beginning in western zones around 10 PM. Some storms could become severe as MUCAPES increase to 2500 J/KG mainly along and south of a Big Lake to Junction line. SPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms west of a Sterling City...Mertzon...Sonora line with marginal risk east to Sweetwater, Ballinger to Eden and Junction. The CAMs do indicated the stronger convection in Crockett county and I-10 corridor. Large hail is the main threat. Cooler otherwise today with clouds and storm. Highs range from the mid 70s north to upper 70s south. Lows overnight will be in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The upper level pattern shows persistent troughing over the western US, especially over the Desert Southwest and Baja California, for Thursday through this weekend. This places the southern Plains in predominantly southwest flow aloft during this time. Several weak embedded waves will be ejected eastward by the trough into west Texas for Thursday through Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly to southeasterly flow should continue to advect a moist, unstable airmass into west central Texas over top of the boundary that stalled across Texas on Tuesday. On Thursday there are medium to high (40-75%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches are expected which may lead to more heavy rain and flooding concerns, especially across eastern counties. Chances for storms look lower on Friday after the first upper-level wave passes and the aforementioned surface boundary lifts northward to the central Plains. The upper-level trough over the Baja will move eastward into Texas on Saturday while the surface front drops southward into west Texas. Afternoon thunderstorm chances should increase again for Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of this front. Models show this upper low potentially becoming a weak cutoff low over east Texas for early next week while another upper trough approaches from the western US. This setup would keep our neck of the woods in an active pattern with chances for thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday. The risk of severe weather is difficult to determine at this time until the picture becomes a bit clearer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thunderstorm complex has moved east, temporarily leaving VFR conditions. However, stratus with MVFR ceilings was moving back into KABI and the rest of the terminals should fall back to MVFR overnight. Ceilings should rise to VFR by early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but isolated thunderstorms may also affect the rest of the terminals. A larger complex of storms will move in late evening from west to east, with MVFR ceilings returning by midnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 63 78 63 / 30 60 70 10 San Angelo 77 62 80 63 / 50 70 40 20 Junction80 63 80 63 / 60 80 50 20 Brownwood 77 63 77 62 / 40 70 70 20 Sweetwater 75 62 78 63 / 40 60 50 10 Ozona 78 62 81 63 / 60 70 30 30 Brady 77 63 77 63 / 40 70 60 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...04  531 FXUS66 KOTX 200722 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1222 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 10-30% chance of pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms northeastern WA and north Idaho Wednesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - 90% chance for a cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue Wednesday afternoon in northeast Washington and north Idaho. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing into the high 70s and 80s by Friday and continuing through the weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. There is high confidence for cooler and unsettled conditions to return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: A shortwave in southern Alberta will bring a dry cold front from the north Wednesday evening. There will be a 10- 30% chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in northeast Washington and north Idaho this afternoon as a 110 kt jet streak dives in from central BC and into north central Washington. Instability will be maximized around the ID/MT border in the late afternoon with around 300-600 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Farther west in northeast Washington, drier boundary layer conditions will lead to higher cloud bases thus less available surface based CAPE. Effective bulk shear will be weak around 15-20 kt so expect single cells. Main risks with these cells will be gusty outflows up to 30 mph, isolated lightning, and small hail around pea size. Farther west this afternoon and early evening, there will be elevated fire weather conditions with dry and breezy north winds 10-15 mph down the Okanogan valley, eastern Waterville Plateau, and northern Basin. Behind this system, the Inland NW will be mild with above normal 500 mb heights through Saturday thanks to high pressure off the coast. Temperatures will climb from the upper 60s to low 80s today to the high 70s to upper 80s by Friday and through the weekend. Sunday through Wednesday: Changes are coming as the ensemble clusters indicate a 90% chance of a trough in the Gulf of Alaska diving south towards the Pacific NW Sunday and Monday. This will bring a cooling trend early next week and chances for rain and high elevation snow. There is still a 3000 ft spread for the 10th to 90th percentile snow levels in the Cascades Monday and Tuesday. The colder solutions have snow levels around 3500-4500 ft and the warmer solutions having snow levels around 6500-7500 ft. This period will need to be monitored for folks headed out into the high backcountry for potential light snow. /db && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will spark across northeast Washington and north Idaho again Wednesday afternon with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Winds will be fairly light but shift towards northerly component in the afternoon as south-north pressure gradient increases with a dry front passage from the north. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 70 43 71 46 76 49 / 200 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 68 42 71 47 74 49 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 66 41 68 44 73 46 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 71 46 74 48 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 73 37 76 43 79 46 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 67 40 70 45 73 47 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 67 41 72 45 75 47 / 30 20 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 77 48 78 48 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 77 53 78 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 77 47 78 50 82 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  610 FXPQ50 PGUM 200725 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 525 PM ChST Wed May 20 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Isolated showers will continue through tonight before briefly increasing to scattered Thursday afternoon through evening. Combined seas of 6 to 8 feet and a high risk of rip currents along east- facing reefs continue through Thursday afternoon before gradually subsiding. Models continue to trend towards a wetter weekend due to the potential of a tropical disturbance tracking through the Marianas. && .Discussion... Satellite imagery depicts a fairly dry trade-wind regime, although some patches of moderate showers and mostly cloudy skies have been intermittent across the Marianas throughout the day. This pattern is expected to continue, increasing from isolated to scattered showers as a trade-wind trough tracks through the region beginning with Guam as early as Thursday afternoon followed by Rota, Tinian, and Saipan through the evening. Beyond Thursday, the region may experience a brief return to isolated showers and winds from 15 to 20 miles per hour on Friday, before an uptick in shower coverage and a slight chance of thunderstorms is possible starting Saturday. Model guidance continues to portray a potential disturbance developing in central Micronesia and tracking north-northwest through the Marianas early next week. Confidence continues to grow in wetter impacts across the region starting Saturday through the holiday weekend, but the disturbance itself has yet to be realized as development is still in its earliest stages. We will continue to monitor and communicate conditions as the weekend nears. && .Marine... Combined seas of 6 to 8 feet will prevail across the region through Thursday afternoon as the easterly trade swell continues to elevate sea heights. Buoy and altimetry data supports swells capable of producing surf up to 9 feet, so, there is a high risk of rip currents along east-facing reefs and is expected to continue through Thursday afternoon before dropping to moderate Thursday night. A moderate risk of rip currents is also prevalent along north-facing reefs and will continue over the next several days. Sea heights will start to subside Thursday night and may hover 4 to 6 feet throughout the weekend. && .Eastern Micronesia... The leading edge of the Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) remains the primary driver for weather across eastern Micronesia. Extensive heavy showers and some thunderstorms are expected to continue at Pohnpei through Thursday night and at Kosrae through Thursday, followed by a brief and slight decrease in shower coverage. Then, showers and thunderstorms will again peak during the weekend as an ITCZ surge is expected to backbuild across the Marshalls as trade-wind flow continues to bulk against the NET and associated developing disturbance, followed by a disintegration in the southeasterly component that will push the ITCZ back toward the central Pacific by early next week. This backbuilding will bring gusty, heavy and intense showers to Majuro before the weekend, with some near gale- force gusts expected near the heaviest showers. As the aforementioned disturbance heads further west and/or northwest, showers and thunderstorms will return to a more patchy coverage across the region, but a dry spell is not likely to develop as the primary convergence zone remains across all three islands. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet near Pohnpei and Kosrae, and 5 to 7 feet near Majuro, are expected to taper down a foot over the coming days, to then remain as such for the rest of the forecast period as trade swell remains moderate. && .Western Micronesia... Satellite observations show isolated to scattered showers across the region. Altimetry shows combined seas between 4 and 7 feet. A relative lull is ongoing across western Micronesia. For Palau and Yap, weather conditions look to be in and out of an active phase through much of the week with 30 to 40 percent PoPs through Saturday. As we head into next week, a monsoon tail looks to develop across the region, bringing increased shower activity. Additionally, a tropical disturbance may reside within or just north of the region next week. This would help enhance rainfall across Palau and Yap in the extended range. Uncertainty remains high on the location or strength of any potential tropical disturbance next week, but there is medium confidence for increased rainfall, either due to direct impacts of a tropical disturbance or from the monsoon tail that forms south of it. Across Chuuk State, initial conditions are relatively quiet with scattered showers. Shower coverage looks to increase to numerous tomorrow due to the convergence from the monsoon-like trough to the west, the NET to the south, and the ITCZ to the east meets across Chuuk State. As this convergence comes together, low-level vorticity will begin to concentrate over Chuuk State as the early stages of a tropical disturbance begins to form. Widespread locally heavy rainfall is expected Friday night through Saturday night for Chuuk, as the tropical disturbance shifts west and shifts the inflow band over Chuuk. Showers and thunderstorm coverage will slowly decrease starting Sunday, but an active pattern looks to remain. Marine conditions are between 4 and 7 feet and look to stay benign through the week. Some choppy seas will be possible across Chuuk State near heavier showers. As the monsoon tail intensifies next week, seas look to rise near Palau and Yap. Those with marine interest across Palau and Yap should continue to monitor the forecast to remain up to date. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Mesa East Micronesia: Montvila West Micronesia: Williams  711 FXUS61 KAKQ 200727 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 327 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion and key messages. Lowered high temperatures across the north tomorrow, but increased them across the south. Lowered temperatures a bit more for Friday and Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Another hot day ahead today, with Thursday also looking quite warm for the southern half of the area. A strong cold front brings the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area late this evening. 2) An increasingly unsettled pattern takes shape from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend. Generally cooler to start, with periods of rain Thursday night and Friday, followed by a low-confidence temperature forecast for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another hot day ahead today, with Thursday also looking quite warm for the southern half of the area. A strong cold front brings the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area late this evening. High pressure remains centered well offshore, with breezy S-SW flow across the area this morning. Temperatures are quite mild, with readings averaging 70-75 deg F region-wide as of 07z. Another day of near-record highs is forecast this afternoon, with the record of 97F at RIC looking particularly susceptible to being eclipsed. Upper ridging holds for one more day area- wide, as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s and keeping max heat index values generally capped right around actual high air temperatures, which will once again range from the mid to upper 90s inland to the lower 90s closer to the coast under a mostly sunny sky. As for the well-advertised cold front, multi-model consensus continues to slow its arrival, lagging into later this evening across the north, pushing into southern VA south of US-460 into NE NC later tomorrow morning/early afternoon. 00z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching the far northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through much of Wednesday evening. SPC has more or less maintained a Day 1 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the northern half of the forecast area, though the risk of severe storms over the local area still looks quite marginal. Given the slower timing of the front, it still appears that the better instability and forcing remain to our N/NW. Storm timing over the local area is quite likely to hold off long enough that cells will start to dissipate as they arrive after 00z tonight into early Thursday morning. That said, there remains some potential for a few stronger to severe storms, mainly for far northern portions of the area north of Richmond, over to the Northern Neck, and the MD Eastern Shore. Specifically, the best chance of stronger storms likely comes in the event of convective outflows from more widespread storms to our NNW. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat with any storms that can penetrate the area, though mid-level lapse rates do steepen to 6.5-7 C/km as low levels moisten up this evening. Therefore, an isolated instance of large hail cannot be completely ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled pattern takes shape from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend. Generally cooler to start, with periods of rain Thursday night and Friday, followed by a low-confidence temperature forecast for the weekend. A shortwave trough is still forecast to eject northeast across the northern Plains and upper Midwest late tonight, pushing intoOntario and Quebec Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south through the rest of the area Thursday. The slower frontal timing will allow much of the southern half of the area, mainly south of US-460, to sneak out another very warm day ahead of the boundary as it slowly drops south into the Carolinas later Thursday into Friday. While highs remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the northern half of the area, highs well into the 80s are forecast across south-central and southeast VA into northeast NC. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values will allow rain chances to ramp up quickly Thursday afternoon, especially along and south of US-58. Showers and scattered storms are expected to develop and focus along the front as it drops across the southern third of the area Thursday afternoon into Thu evening, eventually settling over the Carolinas on Friday. In its wake, an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup takes hold for Friday. Forecast highs remain in the 60s to 70s Friday with periods of mainly stratiform light rain and drizzle. There is still some uncertainty with respect to the durability of the cool air/CAD wedge setup heading into the weekend. Namely, because of the mid-level ridging, there is a growing signal that the warm front remains pinned to our south a bit longer, therefore holding the wedge airmass in place into the weekend. This injects a bit more uncertainty into temperatures for Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well. Eventually, the warm front does lift back north over the area to fully erode the CAD airmass Sunday and Monday. Stagnant flow will then likely result in that weakening frontal boundary getting hung up over northern portions of the area late in the holiday weekend into early next week. This leads to the potential for continued unsettled conditions lingering throughout the holiday weekend. Cooler temperatures than currently in the forecast are quite possible for both Saturday and Sunday, though quick warming is likely heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. The unsettled pattern will allow for rain chances virtually every day from Thursday through the middle of next week. While the weekend certainly doesn't look to be a washout, rain chances will be higher than they've been of late each day into the middle of next week. Hopefully holiday plans won't be interrupted, but at this stage in the ongoing drought, any rainfall is welcome! && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/20 TAF period. Clear or mostly clear skies are forecast for the bulk of the forecast period, with clouds increasing from the NW late this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. There's a low- end chance for showers/storms to impact RIC/SBY late in the period, with chances remain much too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time. Rain chances increase at RIC/SBY after 00z/8pm this evening into early Thu morning. SW winds ~10kt through the period, with occasional gusts to 20 kt through this afternoon. Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible starting early Thu morning as a cold front brings showers and isolated storms to the local area. An unsettled pattern will likely bring additional restrictions through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters today and tonight. - A front crosses the waters Thursday morning, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions from Thursday through Friday due to NE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. High pressure remains stretched across the Southeast this morning, producing SW winds of 10-15 kts across the local waters. This stagnant pattern will allow winds to remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt. with some gusts to 20 kts in the Bay and coastal waters late this afternoon and into this evening. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late tonight into Thursday morning. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday with increasing NE winds in its wake. Guidance continues to trend upwards with wind speeds, as the front is forecast to stall across our just south of our area. Gradient winds will remain elevated through Friday, but may struggle to increase as much in the southern waters due to the location of the front. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt from Thursday through Friday. SCAs appear likely for portions of the bay (due to winds) and coastal waters N of the VA-NC border (due to seas building to 5-6 ft behind the front). Local wind probabilities show a relatively high (60-90%) chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the middle/lower bay from Thu-Fri. At this time, the front is progged to lift north Friday night, which will allow winds to diminish this weekend as the gradient relaxes some. If the front lifts more slowly on Friday night into Saturday, the northern waters could still see SCA winds linger through portions of Saturday. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) today, with a low risk elsewhere. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk. Increasing seas and lingering stronger winds in the wake of the front will produce a high rip risk at all beaches to end the week on Friday. && .CLIMATE... As of 950 PM EDT Tuesday... Tue 5/19: Richmond tied a record high min (71), and SBY also tied the record high min (70). No record high highs were set or tied. Another day of near-record to record- breaking heat is expected today, both for record highs and record high minimum temperatures. See below for reference. Record High Temps for Wed 5/20: Record High/Year Location 5/20 -------- ---- Richmond 97 (2022) Norfolk 98 (1996) Salisbury 98 (1911) Eliz. City 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for Wed 5/20: Record High Min T/Year Location 5/20 -------- ---- Richmond 71 (2018) Norfolk 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM AVIATION...AC/MAM MARINE...ERI/NB CLIMATE...LKB/MAM  680 FXUS65 KBOU 200726 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 126 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled Tuesday through Friday with scattered to numerous showers and a few storms. - Warming and drying trend for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 109 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Cooler temperatures and rain chances are expected to continue through the workweek. An upper level trough will remain to our west/northwest through Thursday. Ahead of the trough, we'll see decent large scale lift. And with the moisture already present thanks to the rain the past few days, this will be enough to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms during this time. For today, instability is on the lower end (MLCAPEs 400 J/kg or less), so we're not expecting any severe storms this afternoon. The one thing we will need to keep an eye on the potential for landspouts. High res models have a Denver cyclone developing near the urban corridor this afternoon and we do have some weak surface CAPEs in that area, so landspouts are not out of the question. For Thursday, coverage and intensity of storms look a bit higher. Moisture will be ushered into the area at the surface, QG lift ahead of the trough will be stronger, and we could see some breaks in the clouds in the late morning allowing for some surface heating and increased lapse rates/instability for Thursday afternoon. The highest chance of stronger storms will be in our southeastern counties where the better shear and instability overlap. Right now, the main hazard looks like large hail, but we can't rule out an isolated tornado or strong winds as well. The upper level trough will move over the area and off to the northeast overnight Thursday into early Friday. A cold front will also move through overnight, dropping temperatures a few degrees for Friday. Rain chances will continue on Friday as a secondary, weaker trough develops to our northwest and moves over the area late Friday into Saturday. Coverage and intensity of showers and storms will be lower than what we're expecting on Thursday. After that secondary trough moves through, upper level ridging will start to build over the area. A warming trend will begin on Saturday, with highs reaching into the upper 80s for portions of the plains by Monday. The warming trend will be halted on Tuesday as another trough approaches from the west, cloud cover increases, and precip chances return to the mountains and potentially the plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/... Issued at 1143 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Light rain and mist will continue near the TAF sites through the early morning. Rain will likely clear out of the KBJC area first and KAPA last. We'll see a brief break in rain chances in the mid to late morning, before they return. Showers and storms are expected to form in the area around 17Z to 19Z and then progress eastward over the next couple of hours. This will be the best chance of showers and storms. There is potential for some lingering rain after the initial push, but models are starting to trend further south with that activity, so the best chance for additional rain in the afternoon and evening will be at KAPA. MVFR CIGs are present this evening and will continue through tomorrow morning, before they start to lift around 14Z to 16Z to low end VFR for the afternoon (4000ft to 6000ft). && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...AP  715 FXUS65 KLKN 200727 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1227 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend Wednesday through Sunday * High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Sunday afternoon about ten degrees above normal for this time of year && .UPDATE... Issued at 1212 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 No changes have been made to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A trough of low pressure will remain in the vicinity of Eastern Nevada this afternoon through Wednesday. An atmospheric disturbance will dive southward along the trough of low pressure Wednesday night and Thursday. Precipitation associated with this atmospheric disturbance should remain northeast of Elko County. Zonal flow aloft will prevail Thursday night and Friday. A ridge of high pressure will build northwestward across the Silver State this weekend into early next week. A warming trend is expected Wednesday through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a warming trend Wednesday through Sunday. Moderate forecast confidence in high temperatures Sunday afternoon about ten degrees above normal for this time of year. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions today and tonight at all terminals. Mostly sunny early this morning with increasing clouds late this morning through the early evening hours. Generally SCT-BKN FL100-120, BKN-OVC FL200. Diminishing clouds later this evening and overnight. Light NW winds of 5-10kts gusting 10-15kts, occasionally variable. && .FIRE WEATHER... Light NW winds 5 to 10 mph gusting to around 15 mph this afternoon. There is a 15% chance of showers and 5% chance of thunderstorms in northern FWZ 470 near Jackpot this afternoon, though any precipitation would be less than a couple hundredths of an inch or just virga. Otherwise dry and storm-free across all zones. Temperatures will be trending warmer through the weekend. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...96 FIRE WEATHER...96  816 FXUS63 KGRB 200728 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 228 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost or freeze headlines may be needed tonight as lows fall into the low to mid 30s over the Northwoods. - Below normal temperatures continue throughout the week, warming back up during the Memorial Day weekend. - Dry through at least early Friday with periodic rain chances throughout the Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Early Morning Analysis...Despite surface high pressure nudging into the area from the west early this morning, isolated light rain showers or sprinkles were occurring over north-central WI aided by a 500mb vort max overhead, with mostly cloudy skies occurring elsewhere. The cloud cover will limit any frost development from occurring this morning especially in far north-central WI where temperatures are most favorable. Rain Chances...The surface high pressure is progged to reside over the area today into Friday, keeping dry weather in place for the remainder of the work week. Model guidance is suggesting the next chance for rain arrives Friday night into Saturday, as a southern stream system lifts across IL/IN/MI. This would leave the forecast area in the north/northwest precip shield of this system, minimizing the potential for any thunderstorms. However, the latest guidance is indicating the southern stream system may track further to the south and east, lowering the potential for precip in the area for Friday night into Saturday. Trailing behind this system is an upper-level trough/frontal passage that looks to bring another chance for rain sometime between Saturday night into Sunday, which may include the potential for thunderstorms. There are also signs of a shortwave moving over the area for Memorial Day, which could also bring rain and thunderstorm potential. Despite these features, the Memorial Day holiday weekend does not appear to be a washout, and more along the lines of periodic chances for showers and storms. Temperatures/Frost Potential...Below normal temperatures are expected through Saturday, with today and Thursday being the cooler of the days with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Given the cooler temperatures tonight (lows in the low to mid 30s across the Northwoods and upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere) and high pressure overhead, where clouds clear and winds become calm, anticipate frost development, mainly across the Northwoods. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed. High temps gradually warm into the 60s for Friday and Saturday before rising into the 70s for Sunday, and potentially into the 80s for early next week. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Low-end VFR clouds will remain across the area overnight, with a few MVFR ceiling over far north-central WI. Downsloping northwest winds will eventually help scatter out some of the clouds early Wednesday. Isolated sprinkles will continue overnight, mainly across north-central WI, but will have no impacts to aviation. Additional low-end VFR clouds are expected on Wednesday especially during the morning hours, with a few high-end MVFR ceilings possible in north-central WI. High clouds will also be in the region, especially in the Wednesday afternoon/evening. West/northwest winds will remain under 10 kts late this evening and overnight. Onshore flow near Lake Michigan could switch winds to the east for a time overnight at GRB/MTW. North winds under 10 kts are expected on Wednesday, with a lake breeze shifting winds to the east across eastern WI in the afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....KrukAVIATION.......Bersch  807 FXUS63 KJKL 200728 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 328 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorms will become more prevalent today, with widespread rain chances continuing through the next seven days, including the holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 A cold front will move southeast into eastern Kentucky this afternoon, then come to a stall later tonight through Thursday along the TN and VA borders. Meanwhile, broad forcing for ascent increases across the area through the day as a slow-moving shortwave approaches from the southwest, with the shortwave becoming gradually sheared out across southeastern Kentucky tonight into Thursday as shortwave ridging builds over the area by Thursday evening. As the front approaches from the northwest today and the aforementioned shortwave approaches from the southwest, rain chances will steadily increase. Current dew points in the 60s combined with a developing mid-level 30-40 kt speed max ahead of the shortwave will provide the kinematics and thermodynamics for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with low to moderate buoyancy from surface high temperatures forecast to reach the lower to mid 80s for much of the area, warmest in the Big Sandy Basin. Thus, a few isolated severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds and hail the primary severe threats. Additionally, downpours may cause localized high water issues in poor drainage areas. Showers and thunderstorm activity transitions to more of a shower/rain threat tonight into Thursday as the shortwave becomes sheared and the cold front stalls near or along the TN and VA state lines, creating more of an overrunning situation. The building upper ridging Thursday may allow for northwestern parts of the forecast area, especially toward the I-64 corridor and Bluegrass region, to stay mostly if not completely dry, as shower activity becomes more confined with time closer to the stalled front across southeastern Kentucky. Temperatures tonight will likely cool into the 50s, especially for northern areas behind the cold front, while lower to mid 60s for lows are expected toward the TN border to the south of the stalling front. Thursday's highs will be below normal for northern and central parts of the forecast area, likely around 70 degrees under persistent cloud cover and shower chances, with highs closer to normal near and south of the front near the TN and VA borders. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 The forecast period begins with the region likely situated north of a frontal zone Thursday night as a shortwave in southwest flow approaches the region. This should support the boundary lifting north as a warm front as a sfc wave rides into the OH Valley. With the northwest lifting warm front, it is probable that chances of convection will spread north through the overnight period Thursday night. Overnight lows are still expected to be mild as the warm front lifts north across the area. This warm front will cross the region on Friday, serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the day as another wave moves along the boundary and treks toward the Great Lakes for Friday night. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This boundary likely remains north of the area to start the weekend, before sagging back into the OH Valley and stalling to end the period. Passing disturbances and the moist airmass, with PWs per the 12Z LREF generally in the 1.3 to 1.7 inch range, or the 90th percentile, should at least be conducive for a diurnal uptick in convection for Friday to Monday. The 12Z Tuesday LREF event totals through 8 PM EDT on Monday have a min to max range of 0.75 inches to near 7 inches, while the 25th to 75th percentile range from 1.5 or 1.75 inches near the VA border to 3.75 inches in the north and west. Recent deterministic guidance projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area, with lesser amounts near 1.5 inches in southeastern KY near the West Virginia and Virginia borders, due to local downsloping effects. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift toward a much wetter synoptic setup, a stark difference from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks and months. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to mid 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday) ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Valley fog has developed in and around locations that saw rain during the afternoon and evening Tuesday, including at least briefly at KSME and KLOZ. This fog may continue intermittently through 09z-12z this morning, or until increasing lower cloud cover provides sufficient insolation to dissipate fog. Otherwise, the forecast features widespread VFR gradually diminishing to sub-VFR conditions as shower and thunderstorm activity increases through the morning and afternoon, with activity become more showery in nature after about 23z-02z, as the instability is mostly tapped out by that time as a weak cold front stalls from near KSJS to KJKL to north of KSME around 00z Thursday. Widespread MVFR or lower conditions are then likely after 00z as the front remains across the area and shower activity continues through the end of the TAF period. Thunderstorm activity will be most prevalent in the afternoon period, and a few storms could be on the strong side with gusty winds and hail. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JP/VORST/CMC AVIATION...CMC  151 FXUS61 KRLX 200733 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 333 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Marginal Risk for severe storms today has expanded northwestward to encompass parts of southeast Ohio and continues to highlight a wind and hail threat. A soaking holiday is still on tap for Memorial Day in response to a wafting frontal boundary. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms blanket the forecast area today amid an advancing cold front. Activity today could serve up damaging wind gusts from stronger storms and localized high water issues within heavier downpours and/or training cells. 2) The end of the work week into Memorial Day weekend will feature episodic rounds of showers and storms with the frontal boundary hung up over the region. Cooler temperatures on Thursday will gradually rebound towards unseasonably warm readings by the end of the weekend and into the start of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level troughing in the Great Lakes region will drive a cold front into the forecast area today, beginning a stretch of active weather through the holiday weekend. Radar trends at the time of writing depicts scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms streaming through Ohio and grazing our far northwestern zones. As the front slips into the forecast area today, moisture drawing up ahead of the boundary will help serve up additional rounds of showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Messaging has remained unchanged for convective activity progged for this afternoon, with an axis of destabilization taking place in locations that remain south of the frontal boundary. Only minor modifications were made to the Day One convective outlook, which now expands the Marginal Risk back into our southeast Ohio counties. This suggests a slightly slower progression of the front and more opportunity for instability to make an appearance during peak heating hours. Adequate CAPE and shear levels support isolated damaging winds with storms today in addition to a lesser threat for hail. Storms will be ongoing late tonight along the higher terrain as the frontal boundary sluggishly passes overhead, but becoming mainly stratiform rain in the wake of FROPA. Forecast rainfall amounts ranging from half an inch to an inch from today into Thursday morning will help to put a dent in our prevailing drought conditions. Early morning CAMs do suggest a ribbon of higher amounts streaming in late this evening into the overnight hours from southwestern West Virginia up into the northeast mountains associated with a burst of heavier rain. This could impose localized water issues as heavy, and potentially repetitive, showers and storms press up through this corridor. With climatologically high PWATs invading the area today, floated around the idea of flash flooding concerns, but opted to hold off with this issuance as 3 hour flash flood guidance for the CWA remains above two inches, coupled with antecedent dry soils so far this spring. KEY MESSAGE 2... The frontal boundary will complete its passage through the Central Appalachians Thursday morning, but will become hung up over the Carolinas and the Mississippi Valley as it contends with a strong area of high pressure parked offshore. The close proximity of the boundary will result in ongoing showers and storms for our mountainous areas and as far west as the Charleston metro area during the day Thursday, while locations to the north and west relish in drier weather courtesy of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. The front will continue to promote unsettled weather over the area through the end of the week as the boundary remains draped just to our south, eventually lifting back north as a warm front heading into the holiday weekend. Widespread chances for rain and afternoon thunderstorms prevail as moisture continues usher in from the southwest as we remain in this holding pattern due to the nettlesome front. Impacts from this multi-day soaking rain could eventually be observed as local creeks and streams gradually become overwhelmed by excessive runoff. Cooler temperatures infiltrate the area on Thursday in the wake of the cold front, bringing an end to the early season heatwave. Should see temperatures gradually rebound each day as the aforementioned boundary lifts as a warm front, returning daytime highs to unseasonably warm readings for Sunday and Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overnight showers and storms crossing through the heart of Ohio will slowly progress southeastward this morning in response to an advancing cold front. This front will serve up additional activity throughout the day, with a gradual decline in ceilings by this afternoon along and behind the boundary. VFR conditions to start will be followed by a period of SHRA/VCTS late this morning into the afternoon, then concluding the valid TAF period with crashing ceilings. By late tonight, all terminals are progged to drop to low MVFR to LIFR/IFR amid ongoing moderate to heavy rain. This boundary is expected to stir up active weather for the end of the week and into the holiday weekend, likely resulting in restricted flight conditions as a result. Should see a wind shift from southwest to northwest throughout the day amid the encroaching cold front. Outside of strong winds produced by thunderstorms, occasional gusts around 15kts could be observed this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, medium on Wednesday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions associated with showers and storms on Wednesday may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with showers and/or low stratus, especially in/near the mountains. Brief IFR is also possible at times Friday through the weekend with showers and/or thunderstorms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05  109 FXUS63 KIND 200732 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 332 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch remains in effect until 2pm today across south central Indiana - Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend && .DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 332 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Today - Precip along the cold front slowed southward progress this evening, but the boundary will continue to slowly sag through the region today. Upper level waves moving along the front will produce additional showers and a few thunderstorms today, primarily across the southeastern half of the area, and mainly through mid afternoon before rain chances rapidly taper off across the area. Will maintain the flood watch in place across the south given this expectation and continued plentiful deep moisture through midday. Relatively minimal instability will limit coverage and intensity of thunderstorms, with no severe weather expected. Tonight through Tuesday - High pressure will produce cooler conditions through much of the rest of the work week, with rain chances returning as a broad upper level low and associated shortwave disturbances pull a warmer and moist airmass back into the region. Model agreement is fairly high on what may end up being a washout on Friday, though discrepancies increase quite a bit beyond then. Blend PoPs have increased in the past 24 hours for the holiday weekend, though there is significant uncertainty in coverage at any one time, and changes are likely in the coming days. Nonetheless, rain chances and above normal temperatures will characterize the coming holiday weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 119 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Impacts: - Showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily from HUF/IND southeastward - Ceilings likely to deteriorate to MVFR, with IFR at BMG Discussion: A cold front has temporarily stalled over the area and is producing additional showers and a few thunderstorms across the southeastern half of the area tonight. This will continue much of the overnight and additional showers will be possible during the day on Wednesday. Trapped low level moisture along and north of the boundary as it slowly pushes southward will cause ceilings to deteriorate overnight, falling to MVFR at least briefly at all sites later this morning. BMG will likely drop into IFR at least briefly, but MVFR may predominate at all sites except LAF much of the period. Winds will generally be north/northwesterly early, but gradually become northerly then northeasterly with time. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for INZ052>055-060>064- 067>072. && $$ AVIATION...Nield DISCUSSION...Nield  227 FXUS65 KABQ 200735 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 135 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 - A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists over southeastern NM this afternoon and early evening. - Strong gusty easterly winds pushing into Santa Fe and ABQ this morning will taper off this morning. - The threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark favored to return to the middle Rio Grande Valley and surrounding highlands this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft with embedded small disturbances and mid to upper level moisture producing broken skies remains aloft over NM this morning. With a stubbornly slow moving upper level trough still over UT/AZ, these southwesterly winds will remain thru western NM thru the short term period. A moist continental airmass that pushed into eastern NM behind yesterday's cold front remains entrenched and has pushed westward thru the gaps of the central mountain chain bringing gusty easterly/southeasterly winds into Santa Fe and ABQ. This airmass has shunted the intrusion of a maritime tropical airmass from the Gulf southward into the TX Big Bend region. This is favoring the shallow more stable continental airmass persisting over eastern NM thru much of the today. A blanket of low stratus is beginning to develop along the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo's on GeoColor satellite imagery this hour and is favored to expand further over eastern NM. Some the soupier Gulf moisture will try to work its way northward however, pushing up the Pecos River Valley into southeastern NM, perhaps further north along the central highlands as well. This is favoring a scenario where higher convective instability existing along the south-central highlands and eastern slopes of the south-central mountains with lesser instability further north and east across eastern NM. Coupled with strong southwesterly vertical wind shear marking 45-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear, this is yielding a marginal risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. There is considerable uncertainty regarding how far the soupier low-level Gulf moisture can intrude northward and how entrenched the low stratus blanket will be thru east-central and northeastern NM, especially given the higher level cloud coverage tonight. Simply put, the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms favors southeastern NM, with lower chances as one goes northward towards I-40. Lighter showers mixed with drizzle is favored further north than that toward the CO border. Thursday sees a similar set up as today with higher moisture pushing back west thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley in the morning before retreating toward TX in the afternoon, replaced by drier southwesterly winds advancing from western NM. The aforementioned boundary between the interior moist continental airmass and soupier maritime tropical airmass from the Gulf becomes rather diffuse with southerly winds through far eastern NM. While another round of low clouds with light drizzle is favored over portions of eastern NM Thursday morning, this will quickly burn off with chances for scattered afternoon thunderstorms favoring development along a sharpening dryline. Any thunderstorm activity will track northeastward toward the TX/OK Panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Low level moisture across eastern NM will advance back west a few counties deep from TX Thursday night into Friday morning. Thiswill be short-lived before the stalled upper level H5 trough finally treks eastward over CO. This will bring drier westerly flow advancing all the way through the NM/TX line Friday afternoon, shutting down precipitation chances. A cold front will back south and west thru eastern NM Friday night into Saturday morning behind the departing upper level trough. This will return increased low- level moisture to eastern NM once again as a ridge of high pressure begins to develop over the AZ/NM this weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor eastern areas Saturday and Sunday with drier conditions along and west of the central mountain chain. Convective outflow will try to push low-level moisture further west by Monday allowing for a brief expansion of thunderstorm activity into the Rio Grande Valley toward the Continental Divide. Thereafter, an upper level trough over the Great Basin region will bring strengthening dry southwesterly flow into the Desert Southwest. The increase in shear overriding the residual low-level moisture across NM would favor strong to severe thunderstorm activity across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. Drier conditions punch further east across NM by next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 A surge of easterly winds are pushing their thru the gaps of the central mountain chain this hour, already having produced strong southeasterly gusts at KSAF >40kts. Based on ABX radar observations, it is currently pushing thru Tijeras Canyon toward KABQ and is expected to surpass 35kts b/w 06Z to 10Z at times when an Airport Weather Warning has been issued for. Otherwise, the main aviation impacts look to be the development of IFR/MVFR ceilings or even isolated LIFR ceilings across eastern NM tonight and thru Wednesday morning. There is considerable uncertainty with how persistent these lower ceilings will be through the day Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity is also likely over portions of NM, notably southeastern NM Wednesday afternoon, but to what degree, coverage, and intensity is highly uncertain. TAF AMDs will likely be necessary for KROW because of this uncertainty, and will be dictated by when low ceilings clear or not clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Elevated fire weather with breezy dry southwesterly winds over western NM with higher moisture and excellent recoveries alongside southeasterly winds over eastern NM remains today and Thursday. The Rio Grande Valley will see higher moisture push in thru the gaps of the central mountain chain this morning and tonight, mixed out by dry southwesterlies in the afternoon. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will favor eastern NM as well, with the strongest thunderstorms favoring southeastern portions of the area. Drier westerlies advance eastward toward TX Friday afternoon, replaced by another cold front from CO thru eastern NM bringing a return of low-level moisture and good to excellent recoveries Saturday. Daily rounds of slower moving afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor areas along the central mountain chain Saturday and Sunday with gusty outflow winds pushing moisture westward into the Rio Grande Valley and Continental Divide Monday. Thus Monday is favored to see the most westward coverage of afternoon thunderstorm activity. Wetting footprints will be relatively small until Tuesday when faster storm motions will be favored. Drier southwesterlies advance back thru western and central NM Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 42 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 73 31 75 32 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 74 40 75 40 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 35 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 72 42 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 40 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 42 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 50 76 50 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 74 46 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 79 40 80 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 84 44 84 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 33 69 33 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 73 49 73 48 / 20 5 5 0 Pecos........................... 70 43 74 40 / 30 40 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 41 70 41 / 20 0 5 0 Red River....................... 59 34 61 34 / 20 5 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 30 66 29 / 30 10 20 0 Taos............................ 74 37 74 35 / 20 5 10 0 Mora............................ 66 42 70 39 / 30 50 30 0 Espanola........................ 80 45 81 43 / 20 5 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 73 48 75 47 / 20 20 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 45 78 44 / 20 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 83 54 82 54 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 51 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 50 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 87 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 85 51 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 46 85 47 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 51 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 80 53 80 52 / 5 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 52 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 48 76 48 / 10 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 78 48 77 48 / 5 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 77 44 78 44 / 10 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 40 79 40 / 10 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 69 44 74 44 / 30 20 10 0 Mountainair..................... 79 45 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 46 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 75 50 73 51 / 10 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 58 40 66 39 / 20 60 60 30 Raton........................... 64 42 70 40 / 40 50 60 20 Springer........................ 65 43 72 40 / 30 50 60 10 Las Vegas....................... 63 45 72 42 / 30 50 20 5 Clayton......................... 61 47 71 47 / 30 60 60 50 Roy............................. 60 45 71 44 / 40 50 50 10 Conchas......................... 68 48 80 48 / 60 50 40 10 Santa Rosa...................... 68 47 77 46 / 60 50 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 70 50 80 50 / 60 40 50 20 Clovis.......................... 69 51 80 52 / 50 20 30 5 Portales........................ 70 50 81 51 / 50 20 30 5 Fort Sumner..................... 73 50 82 49 / 60 30 20 10 Roswell......................... 80 55 86 55 / 40 20 5 0 Picacho......................... 78 50 82 52 / 40 10 20 0 Elk............................. 81 49 82 50 / 20 5 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  408 FXUS63 KDMX 200738 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool today through Friday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s. - Spotty showers move into the area on Thursday, becoming more widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening and Friday. Severe weather is unlikely. - Warming trend this weekend with a return to the 80s. The forecast is dry from later Saturday through early next week with precipitation chances returning late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Very patchy early morning fog has developed in parts of northwest Iowa where high cloud have cleared out and temperatures have cooled to near the dewpoint. Widespread fog is not expected this morning, but shallow fog may develop in low lying areas through sunrise. Temperatures falling off quickly behind the clouds to create this patchy fog development is also the area we are watching for frost potential early this morning. Temperatures in far northwest reaches of the area are around 38-41 degrees and have reached their dewpoints. It is possible temperatures fall another degree or two through the morning, but with only a handful of sites skimming the upper 30s frost is not expected to be widespread. It will be another cool day today with high pressure keeping warmer air well south of the state. At the same time, a long wave trough is developing across the western US. This will slowly move west, with the first indication being high clouds filtering into Iowa this afternoon. Temperatures remain chilly on Thursday in the low 60s. That trough will shift east with two embedded vorticity maxes. The southern vorticity max begins to lift into the area on Thursday morning but will battle dry air, resulting in spotty precipitation across the area in the morning to afternoon. The northern vorticity max with upper level trough axis swings across the area later Thursday and on Friday, providing the next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms across the area, as outlined below. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 By Thursday evening a 500 MB trough will be moving over the U.S. Rockies, and will subsequently become negatively tilted as it emerges over the northern High Plains Thursday night and Friday. As this trough swings across the region, it will generate a broad swath of rain associated with surging moisture, increasing winds aloft, and modest theta-e advection. This swath will enter our southwestern counties Thursday night and move across our forecast area on Friday. Instability will be very limited with surface temperatures only in the 50s to lower 60s, but will still be sufficient for a few elevated thunderstorms at times though severe weather will be unlikely. The rain will move out to the northeast late Friday, after which one last lobe of vorticity clearing out the larger-scale trough will cross Iowa late Saturday. Moisture will be much more limited and it remains to be seen whether any additional showers or thunderstorms will occur in association with that feature. For now 70-80% POPs are carried across Iowa Thursday night into Friday, with only 10-20% POPs on Saturday. In the first half of next week, from around Sunday to Wednesday, a large thermal trough will build over the central U.S., as a blocking pattern sets up with a large 500 MB low forming over the western U.S. Synoptically this would tend to support significantly warmer and generally dry weather for our region. However, there will initially be a week 500 MB trough/low over Texas as the larger ridge begins forming on Sunday, and long- range models are at odds with how that feature will interact with the ridge. The EC and GEM essentially wash out the low as it is overwhelmed by the larger thermal ridge, however, the GFS maintains it as a discrete feature that becomes trapped in the ridge and advects slowly northward over Iowa early next week. This leads to rapidly decreasing confidence in forecast details in the outer periods, however, even in the GFS solution generally warmer temperatures would still be favored, and it seems a safe bet that the cool weather of today and the next several days will be broken as we head into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Winds will be light from the northwest overnight before gradually shifting to becoming from the east by the end of the period, with wind speeds under 10kts at all sites. Skies will remain mostly clear through about 20z Wednesday, before a weak system will bring cloud bases down to FL120. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Hagenhoff/Rotter  554 FXUS66 KMFR 200741 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1241 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .DISCUSSION...High pressure and dry northwest flow aloft will keep dry weather going through the remainder of this week along with a warming trend. High temperatures today will be a few to several degrees above normal, but warmer air aloft will bring temperatures around 10-15F above normal from Thursday through the weekend. The air mass is pretty dry, but we'll get marine pushes from time to time that will bring bouts of nighttime/morning stratus to the coast, coastal valleys and Umpqua Basin. One such marine push is occuring this morning, which could be deep enough to cause some spillover clouds to bank up against the Siskiyous around the Rogue Valley this morning, but that's about it. By late Friday, models are showing a weak impulse offshore and some moisture/weak instability near the NorCal mountains (mainly south of here -- Sierra). This raises the idea of thunder, but the probability of anything occurring this far north is 10% or less. Same goes for Saturday pm/eve. As we maintain the dry airmass and breezy afternoons, there will be at least an elevated threat for fire weather conditions each day. However, fuel conditions per fire agencies reveal the overall fire weather threat will remain low to moderate. Given the low RH values and breezy winds each afternoon, people should exercise caution with any outdoor activities that could cause sparks or flames. Bottom line is that fire season was declared early this year, so these precautionary actions should already be in place, but its especially important when we have these elevated fire weather days. Looking ahead, there are indications that the ridge will begin to break down over the weekend, with the potential for a more robust trough to enter the Pacific Northwest around Memorial Day that could bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to the forecast area. Model suites still are not in solid agreement with this scenario, with several differences primarily in trough strength, but also its timing, so confidence is also still on the low side. This will warrant a close eye for those with plans for the Memorial Day holiday. Most inland areas should have a 5-10F cool down along with enhanced to locally gusty winds, and a chance of showers. && .AVIATION...20/12Z TAFs...A weak impulse is passing over the region this morning, with a marine push resulting in IFR/MVFR ceilings over the marine waters and along the coast, and eventually the coastal valleys and Umpqua Basin by daybreak, including at North Bend and Roseburg. Marine layer depth (up to around 5000 feet) allows for the potential for some clouds to form and bank up against the Siskiyous this morning. These may cause local terrain obscuration but should be VFR above Medford. Any low flight conditions will clear through the morning or even early afternoon, with VFR then expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. && .MARINE...Updated 1200 AM PDT Wednesday, May 20, 2026...A thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas over the coastal waters through Friday night. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. Through this stretch, very steep seas of 10-12 ft are most likely south of Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. Guidance shows winds will strengthen Wednesday/Thursday with the potential (35-55% chance) for gales (gusts) across portions of the southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south. The pattern will ease some this weekend as an upper trough pushes in from the NW. This should bring lighter winds and lower seas, especially by Sunday. Model scenarios indicate another trough moving through Sunday night into Monday, but the strength of the trough is the main source of uncertainty at this time. We should get a better handle on this in the coming days. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. && $$  621 FXUS63 KICT 200742 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 242 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below average temperatures through Thursday or Friday, warming trend thereafter. - Off-and-on scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms tonight through the weekend (highest chances through Friday night), with additional off-and-on chances Tuesday through next week. Widespread severe weather is unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: PREDAWN HOURS--EARLY THIS MORNING...Should see isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms over far southeast KS, underneath the right entrance region of an upper jet, and in vicinity of a persistent 850-700mb trough/moist axis. Marginal instability will prevent strong/severe storms or widespread heavy rainfall. THIS EVENING--WEEKEND...A train of shortwaves traversing Mid-America will support periodic off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances this evening through the weekend, but likely most widespread tonight through Friday night. While a few strong storms and pockets of heavy rainfall are possible, marginal instability combined with relatively weak shear and forcing should preclude widespread chances for severe weather. The only caveat to that may be late Friday, when increasing instability and mid-level lapse rates may support a few severe storms, especially west-southwest of the forecast area. There's quite a bit of spread between various model solutions on how much rain we'll receive through the weekend. However, the overall consensus supports the greatest potential for one inch or more generally east of the KS Turnpike, with generally less than one inch west of the Turnpike. Of course, locally higher amounts are always possible. NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus digs a rather deep longwave trough across the western CONUS. Increasing deep moisture and instability should support continued off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances, especially Tuesday through week's end. While widespread severe weather appears unlikely, there remains some uncertainty on the timing and magnitude of ejecting shortwaves and the speed of the flow aloft, along with available instability. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. TEMPERATURES: Below average temperatures are likely today through Thursday and possibly even Friday, as Canadian high pressure exerts its influence on Mid-America, along with mostly cloudy skies and periodic precipitation. Daytime highs mostly in the 60s and 70s are expected, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. As we head into Saturday and beyond, a warming trend back to above average temperatures is expected, as heights/thickness gradually increase over the Heartland. Widespread daytime highs in the 80s are probable by Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings continue to linger over the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas while VFR prevails over central and south central Kansas. Very little change is anticipated through the night although the stratus may build downward approaching IFR during the predawn hours in southeast Kansas. Light northeast winds will prevail tonight gradually veering to the east on Wednesday. Low clouds may linger over the CNU terminal through the 24-hour period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...MWM  672 FXUS62 KMHX 200744 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 344 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Thursday's front has continued trending a bit later, reflected in the most recent forecast. Aviation section updated for 20/06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Fog chances pick up early this morning for portions of eastern NC 2) Above normal to near- record high temperatures and rain- free conditions to continue today. 3) A frontal system approaches the area Thursday, bringing the next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...With a similar setup to the past couple nights, we are expecting low stratus and fog to spread over SW portions of the CWA this morning. Best chances are in Onslow/Duplin county, decreasing as you go further north and east. Fog and low stratus will quickly scour out by 9 AM. KEY MESSAGE 2...Notably warm low- level thicknesses beneath an anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through Thursday afternoon. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses this afternoon yielding highs generally in the lower 90s across the coastal plain, but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s. This will fall a few degrees short of records, but is still around 10 degrees above normal for mid to late May. Thursday's front has trended later with this update, entering the region around 21-00Z. As a result, southerly flow should help us warm up Thursday as well, although sea breeze and increased cloud cover/rain chances may keep us a few degrees colder than today. Regardless, highs around 90 are expected inland. before the sea breeze cools us down. Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging aloft will provide sufficient subsidence to suppress convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze (the usual suspect spots over Dare County and Down East Carteret come to mind here) today. Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the forecast for today. Thursday we will have a bit more moisture to play with as the front approaches from the north. As a result, we may see some isolated to scattered convection along the sea breeze. Chance PoPs/PoTThunder are in the forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening along the sea breeze. Where the sea breeze collides with the approaching cold front PoPs and QPF are maximized. KEY MESSAGE 3...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break down some starting Thursday and into the weekend, allowing a front to drop south late Thursday into Friday and then stall as it encounters the persistent ridging that has been over the region for much of the past week. Confidence continues to increase on the front reaching our CWA, with the most likely outcome being the front briefly stalling over NC. The front will likely linger over the area for a couple days before the boundary eventually lifts back northward over the weekend with ridging building back in its wake. The trend of a slower frontal passage has held tonight, with the front not reaching our area from the north until late afternoon into the evening. Therefore, forecast highs will once again reach the 80s and 90s with persistent southerly flow. Increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance depicts a 30-40% chance of over a quarter inch of rainfall, especially along and north of Highway 64 along the frontal boundary on Thursday. Ahead of the front, the pre- storm environment should be sufficiently unstable for a few storms as CAPE rises to 1000-1500 J/kg. With forecast steep low-level lapse rates and modest dry air aloft, combined with PWATs in the 1.5-1.75" range, the environment would be marginally conducive for the risk of a strong downburst in a more organized storm. Said organization, however, would require some amount of deep level shear and this appears lacking with 0-6 km values under 20 kt. The odds of a stronger storm appear to be around 10% or less as of this afternoon, in line with CSU and NCAR ML guidance, but trends will continue to be monitored. The severe risk will likely be muted on Friday with the frontal boundary to our south or easterly winds decreasing instability, then return to a low- probability regime for Saturday. Beyond here, the front becomes weak enough that diurnal sea and sound breezes become dominant, focusing the highest shower and thunderstorm chances inland. Each of these days carries a low, highly conditional severe risk as well per ML guidance. Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over urban areas like Greenville, Jacksonville, and New Bern, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing drought. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Brief drops to LIFR are noted in Onslow and Duplin counties as of 7Z. Conditions are expected to worsen through the early morning hours in this region as we decouple and moisture builds near the surface. the expectation is for a more widespread VLIFR to IFR fog and low stratus to initiate in the Onslow Duplin area before slowly progressing north and east. Like the past two nights, it will struggle to get too far north and east, being contained to the SW zones. Locally dense fog will be possible. Worst conditions expected at OAJ, with ISO and EWN at the fringe of the fog and low stratus. PGV could see brief drops to MVFR around sunrise, but probs of anything worse are very low. Conditions improve quickly after 12z with VFR conditions then forecast through the rest of today once they improve. Light SW winds tonight increasing in the afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze as they shift to become southerly. Gusts behind the sea breeze could reach 15-20 knots. Wednesday night/Thursday, we will see another night of light to calm winds and substantial low level moisture, ushering in another night of sub-VFR probs. With the focus on this morning's impacts in the 6Z TAF cycle, elected to hold off on messaging Wednesday night's probs until the 12Z cycle. Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions Thu into the weekend. && .MARINE... A summer-like pattern continues through tomorrow afternoon, with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters within 20nm of the coast, where funneling could result in some brief periods of 25kt gusts in the afternoon. Seas will continue to hover around 2-3ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening. Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area Thursday afternoon/evening, then meander around the area through the upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front, with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the front across the Ablemarle Sound and adjacent waters on Thursday afternoon and evening. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Sunday as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MS/RJ AVIATION...RJ MARINE...MS/RJ  972 FXUS63 KFSD 200746 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 246 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and freeze conditions continue this morning with temperatures falling into the 30s across the area. Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory remain in effect until 8 AM CDT. - Very patchy fog this morning may reduce visibility to below one mile at times. Fog dissipates by mid morning. - Scattered showers return this afternoon mainly west of the James River Valley with light accumulations expected. - Cooler conditions continue this week. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Severe weather not expected. However, some ensemble guidance suggests up to a 40 percent chance for a half an inch of rain during this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Calm winds and mostly clear skies are allowing temperatures to plummet into the mid 30s to lower 40s, with lows still expected to fall into the lower/mid 30s across the area. Freeze Warning for portions of the US Hwy 14 corridor and Frost Advisory elsewhere remain on track. A couple of sites across northwestern IA and southeastern SD have developed fog early this morning, leading to visibility below one mile at times. Expect fog to lift by mid morning. Forecast for the rest of the day remains on track as the next mid level waves moves out of NE. CAMs still show some showers west of the James River later today into tonight, with some weak instability through the saturated layer. Dry sub cloud layer with bases around 5k ft might limit how much reaches the surface, especially with surface high pressure meandering east today. Highs warm into the lower/mid 60s with increasing clouds. This is about 10 degrees below normal for late May. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cool high pressure settles into the area tonight and will bring a very good chance for temperatures tall to or below 35 for most of the area with temperatures at or below freezing possible north of I- 90. Thus a freeze warning is in place for highway 14 and nearby locations in SD with a frost advisory for the remainder of the area. Isolated pockets of fog will be possible early Wednesday morning but at this time it does not appear as though it will become more widespread. A weak wave will move through the area on Wednesday which could bring a few sprinkles but overall should mainly be an increase in mid level clouds. Otherwise slightly more mild temperatures are expected as southerly flow develops and brings highs back into the 60s for most locations. Another weak wave moves across NE on Thursday and could bring some light showers to the Missouri River corridor into northwest IA. Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture with the system is very limited. A bit stronger and more negatively tilted system will swing through on Friday bringing the next best chance for rainfall. Instability very minor with CAPE values generally 500 J/kg or less. The model soundings do indicate the potential for some efficient rainfall however so maybe some half inch or so amounts will be possible. The latest ensemble output indicating about a 10 to 30 percent chance for more than a half an inch and the latest Nam is indicating a couple of areas with more than a half an inch. Long story short, only minor impacts expected with no severe weather. As this system moves northeast and out of the area a few lingering showers will be possible on Saturday, but warmer temperatures will begin to work into the region. Sunday through the middle of next week will see troughiness to the west and ridging to the east, leaving the area in warmer southerly flow. While there is very little agreement, there should be a couple of weaker waves that could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but for now confidence is too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise highs should be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Mostly clear conditions will likely persist throughout the first half of the day before clouds cover increases for the south with our next wave. Besides a few scattered showers mainly west of the James River Valley, most areas should remain dry. Otherwise, light and variable winds will become more southerly with the breeziest conditions west of I-29. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for SDZ050-054>071. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for SDZ038>040-052- 053. MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098. IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...05  042 FXUS64 KSHV 200750 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 250 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis through the course of the next seven days. - As soils become saturated from repeated rounds of rainfall, the risk of flash flooding will become a concern late this week and into the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Some trailing stratiform precipitation remains across our Northeast and Central Louisiana zones in wake of early convection along a well defined outflow boundary. This lingering rain should eventually taper off overnight, as a stable and work-over atmosphere settles in place. There is a diminishing thunderstorm complex moving out of CentraL Texas, which could make it into portions of our Deep East Texas zones before daybreak, but confidence is low. However, decided to keep some slight chance POPS in those zones to be on the safe side. We could also see an isolated shower or thunderstorm near a slow moving cold front north of I-30 across SE Oklahoma and adjacent SW Arkansas. Due to the rain cooled airmass, lows tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 60s, which is pretty close to current temperatures over the region. Some patchy fog will also be possible with wet soils and light winds in place. For Wednesday, expect a much quieter day across the area. But, with the aforementioned cool front pushing into the region, some isolated showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out, especially during the afternoon hours with peak heating. Models are all over the place in terms of precipitation chances, so decided to stick with the NBM's coverage and lower the chances. Wednesday night into Thursday, the cool front will continue to push through the area. However, the flow aloft will remain southwesterly, bringing a potent disturbance through the flow and a complex of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. It appears this active southwesterly flow pattern will continue through the weekend, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will continue as we move into the first half of next week, as an upper trough and associated cool front moves into the region. Widespread organized severe weather will be on the lower end through this time period, but an isolated strong to severe threat can't be ruled out. Also, with the potential consecutive days of rainfall, an elevated flood risk could develop over the area. /20/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Showers in the wake of deeper convection is trying to dissipate across the eastern half of our airspace currently and that should be the trend overnight. As this precipitation dissipates in coverage, we should begin seeing IFR or LIFR ceilings develop in its wake and can't rule out at least MVFR VSBYs as well so have tried to trend TAFs that way the closer we get to sunrise. Look for those ceilings to slowly but gradually give way to MVFR ceilings and eventually low VFR or these ceilings will scatter out all together by late morning into the afternoon hours. Any convection today should be widely scattered at best so chose not to mention any Wx with this TAF package. Look for mostly variable to NE to ENE winds with speeds generally under 10kts through the 00z TAF package. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 81 68 83 / 30 80 90 70 MLU 69 84 68 83 / 30 60 90 80 DEQ 64 75 63 81 / 30 70 90 50 TXK67 79 67 83 / 30 70 90 60 ELD 65 79 65 81 / 30 60 90 70 TYR 69 78 67 83 / 40 90 80 50 GGG 69 79 68 83 / 30 90 80 60 LFK 71 81 69 84 / 30 80 80 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...13  157 FXUS65 KMSO 200753 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 153 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A system dropping into central Montana today will push a boundary southward through western Montana driving thunderstorm activity through the afternoon and into the evening. - Dry and increasingly warm conditions return later in the week, temperatures nearing 80 degrees(or warmer) by the weekend for many locations. - Watching Monday for potential fire weather concerns in southwest Montana ahead of the next system. Western Montana will see showers again today, as a boundary moves through the region those showers will become focused along the boundary. Scattered thunderstorms are possible especially as the boundary passes, the main threat being graupel, small hail, and gusty outflows 25-35 mph. Timing on the boundary: around noon Kalispell, MT, between 4-6pm I-90, and 7-9pm Bitterroot Valley and Butte, MT. The highest precipitation will be in the mountains and mainly US-93 and points east to the Continental Divide. A drying and warming trend begins Wednesday lasting into the weekend. If you like warm and dry, the weekend will be quite pleasant with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Hells Canyon will be the warmest, where temperatures around 90F are possible. The forecast for Memorial Day onward still has questions. Of note, the National Blend of Models, which is the starting point of our forecast, now clearly shows a cooldown and increase in precipitation chances Monday into Tuesday. Seasonal models have pointed to the last week of May as ending wetter than normal, time will tell. && .AVIATION...A slightly unstable west-northwest flow will intersect with a upper level cold front dropping out of Canada today. while mainly disorganized shower activity is expected, along that boundary more organized showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Any shower will be capable of graupel, small hail, and erratic outflow gusts 24 to 33 kts. Shower activity will wane near sunset and partial clearing is expected. Areas that receive precipitation may have isolated pockets of fog, especially near rivers. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$  300 FXUS63 KDTX 200756 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 356 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool through Friday. - Rain returns by Friday night and continues into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... A surface cold front progressed across the area overnight and a strong marine augmented pneumonia front continues to surge south and west early this morning. An impressive 10 to 25 degree temperature drop has been observed behind this feature. The frontal inversion traps a stratus deck overhead early today, but this shows signs of giving way with time as drier air arrives from the north. Some sunshine looks likely across the north later today but high cloud remains more pervasive across the south. 850mb temps settle in the 1 to 3 C range today, carrying a much cooler day with highs in the lower to mid 60s. North to northeast flow off Lake Huron holds temps near the lakeshore in the 50s. Upper jet streak entrance region overhead gains an increasingly anticyclonic orientation through the day, causing expansive high pressure to spread from the Midwest into the Great Lakes tonight. Another release of dense marine air spreads across the area late this evening and sends temps down into the 40s and dew points into the 30s. Could see some patchy frost Thursday morning in the cooler locales of the Saginaw Valley and Thumb if wind ends up going calm, but expectation is for the persistent northeast gradient and a veil of mid/high cloud to prevent widespread frost development. Light wind maintains a northerly component through much of Thursday, holding temperatures in a similar range compared to today. Strong deep layer stability and mid-level dry air ensure dry conditions through the day and most of Friday. Slightly milder conditions are forecast Thursday night with more cloud cover in the vicinity. Longwave trough over the High Plains helps direct a shortwave from the western Gulf coast toward the Great Lakes late Friday. The attendant surge of moisture brings relatively high confidence in widespread stratiform rain Friday night into Saturday, with a notable shift among the bulk of ensemble guidance toward a later start time - likely after sunset Friday. Placement of steadiest rain will be subject to the eventual track of low pressure and efficiency of warm conveyor moisture advection, but will note 12z LREF grand ensemble probabilities target southeastern portions of the area with a 50% chance to exceed 1 inch by Saturday afternoon. Deep layer southwest flow ensues Saturday as the wave lifts through, with warm advection boosting temps back into the 70s to finish the holiday weekend. Another shortwave capitalizes on burgeoning instability to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. A warming trend follows next week with good consensus among grand ensemble 500mb progs in depicting an omega blocking ridge setting up over Ontario by late week. && .MARINE... High pressure will fill in across the Great Lakes this morning and will slowly move across the region tomorrow before washing out across the Continental Northeast by Friday morning. This will bring dry weather through the midweek period. Northwest and north flow in the wake of a cold front will bring some slightly elevated winds across north and north-central Lake Huron with gusts 20 to 25 knots. A heightened wave field reaching the Thumb nearshore prompted a Small Craft Advisory this afternoon and evening. As the high pressure system moves over the Great Lakes on Thursday, winds will begin to veer to the northeast and will hold northeast-east through Friday. The next low pressure system is then expected to enter the Great Lakes late Friday into Saturday which will bring the next potential for showers and thunderstorms. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 AVIATION... Low level cold advection has resulted in saturation and VFR stratus this evening between 2.0 and 5.0 kft agl. Depth of the saturation may continue to be enough to result in light rain shower activity or drizzle this evening, although confidence in duration and occurrence is low. Abrupt dry air advection with midlevel isentropic downglide is then expected to push through all of the area after 09z. Shallow cold front and density discontinuity will push southward through the Detroit taf sites around 9z this morning. Boundary layer cloud will be possible with diurnal heating late morning with clearing during the evening. D21/DTW Convection...Low probability for additional thunderstorm activity this evening. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorms this evening. * High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ421-441. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......AM AVIATION.....CB You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  324 FXUS63 KILX 200757 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 257 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier weather settles into the region through Thursday, though a few light morning showers remain south of Interstate 72. Daytime high temperatures will stay near 70 degrees. - Widespread rain will move across central Illinois Friday afternoon and evening. While rain is highly likely, total amounts remain uncertain and could range between 0.10 and 0.90 inches. - Temperatures warm into the upper 70s this weekend and continue to climb next week. High confidence exists that afternoon heat in the mid 80s will return by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Scattered showers may persist through late morning for areas near and south of Interstate 72 as a mid-level shortwave trough over SE Missouri tracks northeast along a baggy baroclinic zone. With the primary axis of instability now shifted toward the Ohio River Valley, any resulting precipitation should remain light, with a minimal risk of thunderstorms. Although HREF CAM guidance varies, with some models depicting dry conditions, the mean HREF QPF suggests totals up to one- tenth of an inch near I-72, with up to one-quarter of an inch possible south of a Taylorville-to-Paris line. Otherwise, a cooler and drier trend is taking shape today and Thursday as surface high pressure settles over the Great Lakes region. High temperatures may struggle to reach 70 degrees, while overnight lows drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Some forecast models also indicate that a lake breeze from Lake Michigan may penetrate as far inland as the I-74 corridor late this afternoon and again tomorrow, likely resulting in a cooler feel during the evening hours. The period of dry weather will be short-lived. By Friday morning, a series of shortwave impulses is expected to move northward from the lower-Mississippi Valley, preceding a more significant trough moving through the central United States. This shift in the atmospheric pattern will push a surface front into central Illinois around midday Friday. Consequently, widespread showers are anticipated across the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening, driven by isentropic ascent and warm-air advection. While limited instability should prevent severe convective weather, high precipitable water (PWAT) values may lead to high rainfall efficiency. Forecasted rainfall totals remain uncertain; the 100-member LREF global ensemble shows a 25th-75th percentile range of 0.10 to 0.90 inches for our forecast area. While confidence in the occurrence of rain is high, the specific accumulation amounts among model guidance remain highly variable. Though, it is worth noting that this same guidance currently focuses the higher QPF across SE Illinois. As the front shifts northward through the region on Friday, temperatures are expected to surge this weekend, with highs reaching the upper 70s both Saturday and Sunday. The main upper trough axis swinging through the Midwest may trigger additional scattered showers over the weekend. However, following the passage of the initial frontal zone on Friday, mid-level RH profiles appear significantly drier, resulting in substantially lower QPF for Saturday and Sunday. Heading into next week, global deterministic models suggest the development of a Rex block over the Plains. The progression of the associated upper low will ultimately dictate rain and storm potential through early next week. Current indications suggest that areas south of I-72 are best positioned for rainfall as the low portion of the block pivots up the Mississippi Valley while the high-pressure side loiters over the Corn Belt. There is strongermodel agreement regarding temperatures, with mid-to- upper 80s heat forecast to return by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cooler, drier continental airmass is settling over the Great Lakes region behind a cold front. This will gradually shift the back edge of MVFR ceilings south of the central Illinois terminals overnight. Winds will generally remain northerly through Wednesday morning, shifting northeast prior to sunset. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...MJA  374 FXUS63 KGRR 200759 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 359 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather through Thursday night with frost possible tonight - Rain back in the forecast Friday into the weekend - Warmer and mainly dry early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Dry weather through Thursday night with frost possible tonight Surface high pressure will bring dry weather today through Thursday night. Clouds will gradually erode today with partly cloudy skies expected tonight. We may need a Frost Advisory tonight across Central Lower Michigan, but after coordination with other offices decided to hold off on the advisory/warning decision until later today as there may be a good amount of high clouds around yet which would affect low temperatures. In addition, there is a fair amount of wind in the lowest 2,000 feet. A partly cloudy day is expected on Thursday with mid and high clouds streaming in from the west. It will be cooler than normal today and Thursday with highs in the 50s and 60s today warming to the 60s on Thursday. Normal highs are around 70. - Rain back in the forecast Friday into the weekend Rain returns to the forecast on Friday and especially for Friday night and Saturday. A shortwave trough aloft lifts from the Southern Plains states into the Great Lakes for Friday night and Saturday with an upper trough then swinging through on Sunday. A healthy surge of moisture comes in on a low level jet Friday night and Saturday which is when we should have the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms. This time frame will essentially be affected by a warm front of sorts with a cold front moving through on Sunday. Bottom line is the weather will be a bit unsettled during this time. - Warmer and mainly dry early next week Warmer and drier weather is expected early next week with zonal flow aloft trending towards ridging. At the surface, ridging will be in place. High temperatures will be warming into the 70s to near 80 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 159 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 A cold front has progressed through all of the TAF sites as we approach 06z with west to northwest winds now prevailing. Main post frontal concern is the extent of MVFR ceilings that may develop the remainder of the night. At this point, JXN is the only TAF site with a MVFR ceiling. We do think that there will be some expansion of the MVFR ceilings early this morning especially south and east of GRR. These lower ceilings may persist through the morning hours. This afternoon and evening VFR weather is expected. Northwest winds at 5-15 knots will veer to the north and northeast this afternoon and this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Our typical advancing high scenario presents itself today on the first day of the Surf Zone Forecast season. A high building into the Great Lakes from the northwest winds increase northerly winds down the shoreline through an enhanced pressure gradient along the lakeshore. The combination of the high building in and thermal affects (troughing developing over the Lower Peninsula) due to a thinning of the low clouds produces stronger winds down the shoreline. The winds can be seen in the HRRR guidance. While we are not expecting many swimmers today (buoy water temps are in the lower 50s) we will still issue a Beach Hazard Statement as the season has begun. A corresponding Small Craft Advisory will be in effect as well, both running from 100pm into tonight. Winds go offshore late tonight and into Thursday which will lead to improving conditions. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight for MIZ056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>846. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Duke  380 FXUS66 KEKA 200759 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1259 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Clear and dry conditions will remain through the week with a warming trend through Thursday. A weak and shallow marine layer will hang along shore. Temperatures will trend lower this weekend weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Northerly winds are much lighter, but will be breezy in the afternoons close to shore. - Generally clear skies and dry conditions, even along shore, through the week. - Conditions will warm through Thursday with highs in the interior peaking near 90. && .DISCUSSION...(Now through Friday)...Quiet and settled weather conditions persist across the forecast area as a broad upper- level ridge continue to build into the Northeastern Pacific. Latest satellite imagery shows an "insiders weak shortwave trough" driving southward across the Pacific NW toward northern California overnight. This is bringing increasing high clouds across the area. Meanwhile, low clouds and patchy fog have been developing around the Humboldt Bay and vicinity. Otherwise, low clouds and patchy fog is expected to lift and clear out by late morning with diurnal heating and increasing nortwesterly winds. Afternoon tempeartures are forecast to be generally in the mid- to upper 80s. Coastal areas are expected to be similar like yesterday's reading, with high in the low- to mid 60s. A warming trend with above normal warm temperatures and minor heatrisk is forecast to continue through Thursday for the interior, when the heat will peak. A sharper marine inversion combined with onshore flow will most likely support the formation of a a more proper, shallow marine layer the next few nights, but daytime clearing remains most likely (80%) each afternoon. /ZVS .EXTENDED DISCUSSION...(Saturday through Tuesday)...High pressure will weaken again this weekend, allow for slight cooling and more marine influence to push inland. Most models show a stronger and more consistent layer of marine stratus forming around Humboldt Bay and other protected areas, aided by gentle but persistent onshore flow. Most ensemble members continue to show a trough dipping across the Pacific Northwest early next week. The trough, however, will most likely be dry with only light drizzle on the coast and some weak showers inland. Even on the far North Coast, the chance of wetting rain is less than 10 percent. /JHW && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFs)...Coastal stratus has developed around the Humboldt Bay and vicinity. As result, MVFR ceilings are reported at KACV. There is a 30-40% chances for IFR ceilings at ACV between 12Z-16Z. Meanwhile, mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCEC with the interior offshore flow; however, nearshore south winds may advect some low clouds into CEC overnight. There is a 30-40% chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings impacting CEC between 13Z-16Z. For the interior, including KUKI, prevailing VFR conditions through the forecast period. Expect breezy N-NW winds around 10-20 kts each afternoon with higher gusts for the terminals, diminishing after 21/02Z. /ZVS && .MARINE...Gale-force gust northerly winds and very steep, hazardous seas are expected to continue through Friday across the outer waters. Meanwhile, moderate to strong gusty winds and steep seas are forecast ro continue for the inner waters. However, localized gale-force gusts are anticipated to redevelop again around Pt St George and in the lee of Cape Mendocino this afternoon. Northelry winds are expected to diminish this weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient relaxes. Seas will also subside this weekend, and could be below 6 feet across the waters by Sunday. /ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450- 455. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 10 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  429 FXUS63 KDLH 200759 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 259 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd on north, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s and threaten sensitive vegetation. A Frost Advisory has been issued for areas to the south. - Cool temps continue through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. - Near-critical fire weather conditions may develop on Thursday due to relative humidity dropping to 25 percent and gusty south winds up to 20 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 For the overnight hours and early this morning, a blanket of cloud cover is helping to moderate our temperatures. Because of this, temperatures will not get quite as low as previously forecast. However, despite this slight moderation, most areas within the current headlines will still see those frost and freeze conditions. Make sure tender plants and sensitive vegetation remain protected through the early morning hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, chilly and cloudy conditions will persist across the Northland with scattered rain showers/sprinkles. Temperatures tonight will highly depend on the cloud cover. Satellite imagery shows a cellular nature to the clouds, which have broken out best over north-central Minnesota, but the cumulus field still extends well to the west and south. This creates a classic spring conundrum for overnight low temperatures when the mean of guidance is near freezing. High confidence exists for clearing and colder temperatures in the southwestern sections of our region, while lower confidence remains for the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Am least confident (40-60%) in getting below 35 degrees over northwest Wisconsin due to the cloud cover, so have issued a Frost Advisory for all of northwest Wisconsin and Pine County in Minnesota. Around the Brainerd Lakes, I have the most confidence they will clear out and have gone below guidance with min temps around freezing. Farther north and into the Arrowhead, confidence in cloud cover lowers again, but the incoming air is cold enough I still have high confidence in freezing temperatures. A Freeze Warning has been issued tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd and northward, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s. Wednesday will give us a sunny and milder day with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with cooler conditions near Lake Superior. Clear skies Wednesday night will allow for rapid cooling once again, leading to another night of patchy frost across the area with lows in the mid 30s. Frost Advisories are possible, even likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. On Thursday, high pressure departs to the east, bringing sunny skies, southerly winds warmer temperatures which continue into Friday. Highs both days should get into the 60s with upper 50s near Lake Superior. Rain chances return Friday night through Saturday as an upper level trough moves out of the Northern Plains and across the Great Lakes. Mostly cloudy skies and damp conditions will keep Saturday highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Upper level ridging to our west and southerly flow across the region will bring a surge of much warmer temperatures to the region for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend. I expect highs on Monday to be well above normal. However, this will be a fairly active pattern with shortwaves likely to dive through this upper level pattern, and we also have some chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Some lingering cloud cover may lead to brief MVFR ceilings at DLH and INL. Winds will remain light and variable through Wednesday afternoon for all except DLH and HIB, which could see a few easterly gusts from the lake breeze. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Northwest winds will gradually back to the southeast and east across Western Lake Superior today, remaining below ten knots with waves of one foot or less. East winds will persist on Thursday, gradually increasing to 10 to 15 knots while waves remain below three feet. Stronger winds and building waves are anticipated by Friday and Saturday as a low pressure system approaches. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Northwest winds early this morning will remain light and variable today under high pressure. Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will drop below 30 percent for much of the Northland, with some areas seeing below 25 percent in northeast Minnesota. A lake breeze will move inland from Lake Superior in the early afternoon, leading to a quick wind shift, a shot of cold air, and rising relative humidity values in a short amount of time. Fire weather concerns significantly increase on Thursday. Gusty south winds up to 20 mph will combine with minimum relative humidity values falling to 25 percent. The most critical conditions are expected from the northern border southward through the Brainerd Lakes. Moisture returns by Friday, bringing humidity values above 30 percent. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>037. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ038. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142. && $$ UPDATE...KML DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML