940 FXUS66 KOTX 072239 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 339 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical Fire Weather: Red Flag Warnings in effect Tuesday and Wednesday due to a combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity. - Thunderstorm Potential: Slight (10 to 20 percent) chance for high- based showers and thunderstorms across Eastern WA and North ID Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Critical fire weather conditions will continue for Central Washington Tuesday evening and expand across Eastern WA Wednesday afternoon and evening as a dry cold front tracks through the region. The front will bring a low (10 to 20 percent) chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms over Eastern WA and North ID Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will decrease slightly but remain breezy Thursday and Friday, keeping fire weather conditions elevated through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday evening through Wednesday: Relative humidity has fallen into the teens across much of the region as of Tuesday afternoon with poor recoveries expected Tuesday night. Gusty southwest winds will persist Tuesday afternoon and evening across the western Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley, and west winds will increase Tuesday evening along the Cascade foothills Thursday evening as a dry cold front approaches. Consequently, Red Flag Warnings are in effect through 10 PM Tuesday for the Moses Lake and Wenatchee areas northward up the Okanogan Valley. The cold front will crawl inland overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, bringing slight cooling and a shift into zonal flow. Winds will remain breezy across Central WA Tuesday night before strengthening and expanding across the rest of Eastern WA and North ID Wednesday. A second round of Red Flag warnings have been issued for Wednesday across these zones where fuels have been declared dry enough to support fire weather highlights. Widespread westerly gusts of 25-30 mph will spread over the Columbia Basin, Palouse, Spokane area, Northeast WA, and North ID. The windiest spots near Cascade gaps and over exposed areas of the Basin will see gusts up to 30-40 mph. While not exceptionally strong, these winds will meet critical thresholds for fire weather concerns. Ahead of the front, mid-level moisture moving up from Oregon will create enough instability to bring low (but nonzero) chances for elevated convection. A few hi-res models continue to depict isolated thunderstorms tracking from southwest to northeast across the Cascade Crest, over the eastern third of WA, and over North ID late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Any precip generated with these storms will have to fall through a large layer of dry air before reaching the surface. Thus, most if not all precip will likely evaporate before hitting the ground. Confidence is low in there being enough lift to trigger storms, but given the dry boundary layer and critical fire weather conditions expected for Wednesday, any lightning strikes would pose a fire hazard. The current forecast carries a 10 to 15 percent chance of sprinkles and a 5 to 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. Behind the front, precipitable water values fall back to 60 to 80 percent of normal, keeping humidity levels low despite slightly cooler temperatures. The Cascades and east slopes will be the exception, where a deep marine layer spilling over from the west side will keep humidities higher (25 to 35 percent). Thursday through Saturday: Elevated west-southwest winds persist Thursday under continued zonal flow. While winds speeds will be lighter than those on Wednesday, widespread breezy conditions with gusts of 20 to 25 mph will maintain elevated fire weather concerns. Friday will see similar wind speeds and gusts out of the west-southwest. By Saturday, there is growing confidence that the next trough will shift into the region, bringing another round of gusty winds. The latest NBM indicates a 40 to 70 percent chance of sustained wind speeds exceeding 20 mph across Central WA. Chances climb as high as 80 percent down the Okanogan Valley. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected TAF sites through the period. Winds will shift to the southwest around 22Z for Central WA including KEAT, KMWH, and KOMK with gusts 15-25kts. Winds will later shift west for KEAT around 00-02Z and will ramp up further with gusts to 30 kts overnight. KPUW will also have increasing winds with gusts into the 20 kt range overnight. There is a 10-15% chance of sprinkles and a 5% chance of lightning over the eastern third of WA and the ID Panhandle between 06Z and 18Z, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. Low confidence for sprinkles or lightning impacting TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 62 88 56 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 62 87 57 84 56 85 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 57 83 51 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 64 92 60 90 59 93 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 57 89 53 86 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 61 87 56 84 57 86 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 59 84 56 81 54 84 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 60 91 54 90 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 66 87 60 88 61 88 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 62 92 55 91 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin - Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705). ID...None. && $$  101 FXUS63 KGLD 072242 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 442 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm and shower chances return on Tuesday through Thursday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 111 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 This afternoon into the evening, as the 500 mb ridge axis stars to move out of the CWA, an 850 mb low coming out of the Northern Rockies is expected to sweep a weak cold front over the CWA. This will lead to some scattered storms moving into the CWA from the northwest. We expect these storms to be decaying as they reach the northwestern CWA around 0-3Z. Precipitation looks to fully end by 6- 9Z. Most likely hazards with these storms will be winds in the 40-55 kts range, and hail up to around 1 inch. The wind may lead to blowing dust, creating reduced visibility. From today's convection, localized plumes of dust are the more likely dust threat, versus a haboob. Wednesday is a stronger copy of Tuesday. Storms look to be entering the western CWA around 22-0Z. The potential for severe winds increases with tomorrow, and if a bowing segment is able to form, winds up around 70 MPH are likely. This increases the blowing dust threat, and both plumes and a haboob are possible from the thunderstorm winds tomorrow afternoon and evening. The hail threat increases, but shear looks to remain very low. Most likely hail will be less than 1.25 inches, but an exceptionally strong storm could produce 2 inch hail. There is massive disagreement in coverage for storms tomorrow. One solution has storms entering the western fringe of the CWA, turning southbound, and decaying. This would keep hazards limited to west of U.S. 385 and end the threat by 5Z. Conversely, the other option is the storms form into a broken QLCS and move east-southeast across the CWA. This increases the wind threat, and introduces an extremely low flooding risk as trailing, back-building storms would have a 10% chance of occurring. This second scenario could have convection persisting until around 9Z in the CWA. Besides the potential for back-building storms, we are not expecting a lot of precipitation to come from these storms today and tomorrow. There will be a threat of dry lightning to start fires with these storms. However, we are not expecting any critical fire weather conditions as RH values remain above criteria. Temperatures throughout the short-term are still expected to warm into the 90s with lows in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 144 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ***Thursday/Friday*** Upper-level flow looks to be approximately zonal Thursday and Friday. A shortwave trough making its way across the Rocky Mountains would support a surface low in Colorado during the afternoon and evening Thursday. Southeasterly winds may be allowed to develop ahead of the surface low during the afternoon and evening hours, allowing high temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thunderstorms are possible across a convergence zone centered approximately in Eastern Colorado. LREF and NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance both suggest at least a 60% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Thursday across this zone. Surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg seem likely as well according to LREF guidance. The severe potential with these storms will depend on whether stronger winds develop in the mid and upper levels. GFS and EC guidance appears consistent that upper-level winds may only support marginal severe thunderstorms, with most soundings showing 35 kts or less of 0-6 km shear. However, if 75th percentile or better 0-500 mb shear can be experienced (35 kts or greater), some of these storms may be allowed to produce severe hail and wind. Confidence in severe thunderstorms developing Thursday is around 5-10% at this time. The shortwave trough may stick around into Friday. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Thunderstorms are possible again, though appear to be less likely than Thursday. NBM guidance shows the best chances for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation on Friday across portions of West- Central Kansas, but is still only 45% or less. Similar CAPE values to Thursday are in play across this zone, though vertical wind shear may be even weaker. Confidence in severe weather occurring Friday is 5% or less. ***Saturday-Tuesday*** Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the remainder of the forecast will be dominated by broad upper-level ridging overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s. Drying across the forecast area may help prevent heat index values from rising to the level of a Heat Advisory as well. Precipitation appears unlikely Saturday through Tuesday, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows probabilities around 10% or less across the forecast region to see greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 429 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Winds will continue to be southeasterly with gusts in the 20-30 kts range this afternoon until about 3-4Z. We are expecting a cold front this evening to remain west of the TAF sites, which would bring in showers and some chaotic winds. We are not expecting impacts to either of the airports, but between 3-9Z, there is a 10-20% chance of northwesterly winds and precipitation. **KGLD VISIBILITY: Parts are on order, there is no estimated return to service at this time. Until then, amendments for visibility should not be expected for KGLD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...CA  754 FXUS63 KILX 072256 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 556 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will be most focused from Thursday night into Saturday, with potential for a number of storms tracking along a slow-moving front. There is a 30-40% chance of receiving at least 2 inches of rain in areas near/south of I-70 during this period, with an attendant concern for flooding. - Severe weather potential is more uncertain, but a level 1 risk is in place for Thursday afternoon and night over all of the area. Damaging winds would be the main concern. - A trend toward warmer and more humid conditions is expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning across northeast Arkansas, which has triggered a few stray showers across the southeast CWA early this afternoon. Little movement in this feature is expected through mid week, until a shortwave begins to dig across the central Plains and moves into the Mississippi Valley toward Thursday. Local weather in the short term shouldn't change too much, with Wednesday's high temperatures similar to today (mid 80s) and a few showers again south of I-70. As we get into Thursday, a cold front will settle southward as the shortwave approaches. Chances of showers/storms increase by afternoon, and will be highest from Thursday night into Friday afternoon (60-80%). A number of ensemble outputs suggest it may take until Saturday to fully get the front out of the area, as it becomes more stationary near the Ohio Valley. As such, areas near/south of I-70 will see the high PoP's lingering through the start of the weekend. With the front generally parallel to the upper flow, waves of storms with heavy rain will be a concern, and a level 2 risk of excessive rainfall is in place for Friday/Friday night in that area. Severe-wise, both the NAM and GFS show low level winds ramping up Thursday evening across especially the southern half of the forecast area (>40 knots), suggesting an increasing MCS threat. Morning SPC Day3 outlook introduced a level 1 risk over most of the forecast area, but suggested a potential increase in risk as the details become more clear. The upper air pattern continues to show an evolution toward a strong high developing over the central Rockies and western High Plains during the weekend, then spreading across the central CONUS early next week. 500 mb heights near 600 dm are progged by the GFS and European models, which would be a couple standardized deviations above normal, and as we get closer to mid week, ridging would amplify just east of the Rockies. Core of the warmest weather in this pattern would stay more to our west, though seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected over our area through next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Light to calm winds and low dewpoint depressions will lead to patchy MVFR fog late tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will dominate through Wednesday afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart DISCUSSION...Geelhart AVIATION...25  772 FXUS66 KEKA 072257 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 357 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures along the coast with persistent overnight and morning coastal stratus and through mid week. - A gradual warming trend is expected late this week and into the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS...Mostly diurnal, pervasive coastal stratus will continue the pattern of low clouds, fog, and seasonal temperatures along and near the coast through Wednesday. Better chances for clearing are expected Wednesday and Thursday along the coast. Inland areas will see warm afternoon temperatures early this week before a building high pressure system ushers in hotter conditions for interior valleys by late week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest is continuing to bring onshore flow leading to coastal stratus and near normal summertime temperatures. Highs in the 90s are expected today in Trinity and Lake counties. Closer to the coast the marine layer may deepen slightly and bring some slightly cooler temperatures to near coastal areas such as Garberville and Gasquet. The immediate coast is not expected to see much if any clearing. Wednesday, the upper level trough starts to move over the area which may aid in some scattering of clouds at the coast with areas near the coast starting to see some warming. High pressure is forecast to begin building into the area on Thursday with the flow aloft in the Pacific Northwest becoming more zonal. This is expected to warm temperatures another few degrees and help keep the marine layer mixed out. Friday and into the weekend the ensembles are showing the upper level ridge retrograde slightly towards the west. The models are not in great agreement on how far west this will go and this will directly impact how quickly the heat will build in. Currently the forecast only has a slight warmup. This is still the potential for more warming, but is currently not looking all that hot and only slightly above seasonal normals. MKK && .AVIATION...Onshore flow is expected for coastal terminals of Northwest California today. This will reinforce a rather persistent coastal stratus layer along the coast and up nearshore river valleys. This afternoon/evening, coastal stratus is expected to cling a bit more over the coastal areas with only minimal scattering/lifting of low clouds. LIFR/IFR conditions are expected again along the coast throughout tonight with some potential for for early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are anticipated for most inland terminals throughout the TAF period. /JLW && .MARINE...Northerly winds are building again this afternoon/evening. These will be strongest south of Cape Mendocino and especially in the lee of the Cape. In addition, steep wind driven waves will build through the end of the week. Also, there are a couple of small swells. Tonight and through the work week, the winds are forecast to remain in the 20 to 25 kt range in the outer waters. The inner waters are expected to increase as well, but may be less persistent and slower to increase. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  742 FXUS66 KHNX 072256 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 356 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .UPDATE... Aviation section updated. && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir AND Lake Isabella through 11 PM PDT Thursday, July 7. Beware of unsettled waters. 2. Slow but steady warmup this week, with Heat Risk reaching elevated to major levels by weekend. 3. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will create significant fire risk, particularly in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties. 4. Increased chance for Sierra Nevada thunderstorms late this weekend into Monday with monsoonal moisture pushing into our region. 5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... The Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir and Lake Isabella has been extended to 11PM Thursday following model runs from this morning continuing to show high probability for gusts exceeding 25 MPH, especially in the late afternoon and early evening. High confidence also extends to the Kern River Valley, for which a Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Isabella has been issued, also until 11 PM Thursday. Models continue to be in good agreement regarding the steady development of a high pressure ridge over our area, eventually evolving into a larger Omega block centered over the Four Corners and upper plains. As this develops, temperatures across our area will steadily increase. By Friday, there is high confidence for widespread triple digit heat across the San Joaquin Valley, Kern River Valley, and Mojave Desert. NBM further indicates a 40-50% probability for temperatures above 110 in the lower elevations of the Mojave Desert, including Ridgecrest and China Lake. Widespread, high probability for Moderate heat risk will continued to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory product. Concurrent with the warming trend will be a decrease in minimum relative humidities. Minimum relative humidity in the teens across most the region to mid single digits in the Mojave Desert are expected to coincide with the regional warmup. The combination of hot, dry, and diurnally windy conditions will create significant fire concerns, particularly in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties. Looking further ahead, the establishment of an Omega block over the Four Corners will begin to redirect monsoonal moisture into our area. While this eastward shift of the high will help cool down the hot regional temperatures, this will also introduce an increased probability for thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Slope. There is still large uncertainty regarding the probability of dry vs wetting thunderstorms, but a Red Flag Warning may be in order in the coming days if confidence for the former (dry lightning) increases. Water temperatures are still in the upper 60s and low 70s and much colder near water flowing from higher elevations. Exercise cold water safety at all times. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Slight (5-10%) chance for thunderstorms along the Sierra Crest until 03Z 8 Jul. && .FIRE WEATHER... The combination of hot temperatures, low relative humidity, and diurnal gusts will lead to increased fire risk region wide, with a particular focus on eastern Kern and Tulare County. Current Hot-Dry-Windy Index guidance places eastern Kern County above the 75th percentile Wednesday and onwards, significantly increasing the risk of fire starts. The monsoonal moisture push into our region late this weekend into next week will be closely monitored for the probability of dry lightning. If confidence continues to increase, a Red Flag Warning will follow, with the Mojave Slope and Sierra Nevadas the most likely regions affected. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ300. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ332. && $$ public...ND aviation....BB weather.gov/hanford