014 FXUS61 KBOX 072301 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 701 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cancelled the flood watch for CT and lowered rainfall totals across Connecticut and Central Massachusetts to 1 to 2 inches. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast && .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues through this evening, shifting offshore overnight. Minor ponding in poor drainage areas possible. Dry conditions Wednesday with seasonable temperatures. - Warm, humid weather returns late in the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days but better chances looking to be on Friday. - Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain continues through this evening, shifting offshore overnight. Minor ponding in poor drainage areas possible. Dry conditions Wednesday with seasonable temperatures. Surface low pressure slowly shifts offshore tonight bring the bulk of the rain with it. Rain continues for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening with a brief pocket or two of heavier rain rates possible. Rain slowly shifts eastward tonight tapering off from west to east. We have had plenty of beneficial rainfall over the last 36 hours or so with 1"+ in many areas and 4"+ in isolated areas on the Cape/Islands. There have been reports of ponding water on roads and minor flooding in poor drainage urban areas, so expect that to be possible through this evening in spots. Overall not expecting a widespread flash flood threat with perhaps another few tenths to a half inch through the overnight. Any remaining showers exit the outer Cape and Islands before sunrise. High pressure settles in for Wednesday resulting in a dry day with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Winds will be light out of the N/NW with sea breezes possible along the east coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm, humid weather returns late in the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days but better chances looking to be on Friday. After a couple of soggy and seasonably cooler days to begin the workweek, by Thursday and Friday we turn warmer, humid and more unsettled again. Amid a broader WSW flow aloft, a weak disturbance aloft in that flow in vicinity of the lower Ohio Valley could bring some risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly to southwestern/southern portions of Southern New England later Thursday into Thursday night. Still think the better potential for storms is closer to the mid-Atlantic/north-central Appalachians closer to the disturbance aloft, so PoPs on Thursday are on the low side. Friday looks to offer a better potential for thunderstorms as a sagging cold frontal boundary from northern New England interacts with a warm and rather sticky (e.g dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s) airmass. Neither day harbors much in the way of severe weather potential with poor middle-tropospheric lapse rates leading to tall- skinny CAPE profiles and deep layer shear in the 30 kt range, and this is reflected by low to nil severe weather probs per NSSL/CSU severe weather machine learning guidance. Will point out the 12z deterministic GFS seems an outlier compared to multi-model consensus and its own ensemble, which offers a pretty coherent sfc low trekking through Southern New England on Friday and would bring another soaking rain. Warm and humid weather prevails both days with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, supporting heat indices in the mid 90s to mid/upper 90s, more likely falling short of heat headlines. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend. For the weekend the 500 mb pattern transitions to one of cyclonic flow/troughing in themean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to mid 80s) and lower humidity levels. Weekend appears favorable for outdoor plans with nice summer weather. We'll be on the western periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge of nearly 600 dm building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We could have to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the ridge but it looks as though the weekend ends up drier than not. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAF Update: Tonight: High confidence in trends but lower on timing. IFR-LIFR ceilings prevail for areas from ORH south and east, with MVFR prevailing at BDL. Band of moderate to heavy rain near ORH to BED/BOS will sag southward through 03z to the Cape and Islands with IFR-visby rain. Gradual improvement in visbys with rain diminishing from west to east through 04z, but could linger until 07-08z for the eastern MA coast. Categories also slowly improve to VFR levels overnight for the interior, but still stay in the MVFR-IFR range for BOS, PVD and the Cape airports. NE winds 8-16 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, highest winds/gusts coastal/eastern MA. Winds thru overnight turn to N with a decrease in speed to around 6-12 kt. Wednesday: High confidence in trends but moderate on timing. Lingering sub-VFR ceilings and areas BR for BOS, PVD and the lift through 14z, and around 16z on the Cape. VFR thereafter. Northerly winds around 5 kt, but possible late-day seabreeze at BOS, after 19z if it develops. Wednesday night...High confidence. VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. NE gusts to 30 kt with MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visbys in moderate to heavy rain thru 02z. Visbys improve with winds backing to northerly with lighter speeds thru rest of overnight; ceilings will be slowly lifting but not likely to go full VFR until mid- morning Wed. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Night...High confidence. Winds decrease across the inner waters allowing SCAs to drop off this evening. In the coastal waters, NE winds with gusts around 25 kts. Seas build to 5 ft tonight with areas of 6 ft possible in the outer waters. Winds decrease Wednesday morning; however, SCAs may need to be extended through Wednesday night for outer waters due to 5 ft seas. Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>235-237-251-256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-254- 255. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/Mensch AVIATION...Loconto/BW MARINE...Loconto/Mensch  955 FXUS63 KICT 072300 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 600 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances return to mainly central Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Damaging winds will be the primary concerns with the strongest storms. - Additional storms appear likely Thursday night through Saturday evening. Strong to severe storms remain possible with this activity. - Slight warming trend expected through Thursday, then a return to near normal temperatures heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a mid/upper low swirling near the Lower Mississippi River Valley as continued upper ridging persists over the region. This will allow for continued dry conditions through Wednesday afternoon alongside highs largely in the middle to upper 90s, with heat index values around or slightly above 100 degrees possible especially in south central Kansas. A change in the recent dry pattern arrives late Wednesday as a shortwave tracks eastward into the Plains. This will allow for a weak frontal zone to slowly shift southward into the area late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Short-term guidance suggests the potential for storms growing into a cluster further north and tracking to the southeast across southern Nebraska and north central Kansas. Better support for storm potential should reside to our north and west, though propagation vectors suggest portions of central and perhaps even south central Kansas may see scattered activity particularly after midnight and lasting into early Thursday morning. With healthy DCAPE in place, damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat as storms move through the area. Storm chances will return later Thursday and Friday as outflow from overnight activity kicks off another round of convection by the evening/overnight timeframe. Per the prior discussion, widespread severe weather appears unlikely at this time, though modest shear paired with decent buoyancy may continue to promote strong to severe storms heading into the weekend. Furthermore, additional rounds of rainfall may lead to localized flooding concerns especially Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures toward the latter half of the week will be influenced by storm coverage overnight and whether skies clear out in time for peak heating. For now, guidance suggests highs in the mid 90s on Thursday and then near 90 beginning Friday and lasting into the beginning of next week. If cloud cover from overnight storms limits insolation into the afternoon, it may be a struggle to reach the current forecast values through Saturday. As things stand, however, heat index values around/above 100 degrees are forecast in southeast Kansas for the afternoon and early evening hours beginning Thursday and potentially lasting into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 559 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the next 24hrs with light southeast winds tonight switching to the south on Wednesday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...CDJ  185 FXAK69 PAFG 072305 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 305 PM AKDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS... While there will be some day-by-day change, warm weather will continue across much of the Interior and North Slope the next few days, with daily thunderstorm chances. Today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible across the Western Interior, interior Seward Peninsula, and western North Slope. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across most of the remainder of the Interior and North Slope. Tomorrow, the risk for thunderstorms shifts northward, with scattered storms again possible in the west-central/northwestern Interior and North Slope. While thunderstorm chances will be a bit lower in the southwestern Interior, numerous to widespread showers and isolated storms will be possible. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Warm and dry daytime temperatures in the 70s and 80s are expected again today. A heat advisory is in effect for the Yukon Flats for highs near 85F Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures cool late Wednesday into Thursday. - Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across much of the Central and Eastern Interior with the exception of the Yukon Flats. - Tuesday night into Wednesday, southerly flow through Isabel Pass will support gap winds gusting between 40 to 45 mph. - Heavier rain is expected in the south-central Interior Wednesday evening into Thursday. Up to a few quarters of an inch could occur from near Minchumina and to the southwest. West Coast and Western Interior... - Temperatures will continue to be warm with daytime highs in the 70s and low 80s in Interior valleys. Along the coast, highs will be in the 50s/60s. Temperatures will cool across the region on Wednesday. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon across the Western Interior with numerous thunderstorms in the southern half. The thunderstorm threat will shift northward again Wednesday, with coverage becoming isolated to scattered. - Heavy rainfall along the northern slopes of the Western AK Range and in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley could support rain totals ranging from around a quarter inch to over an inch. - Stronger southwesterly/westerly winds will develop Wednesday afternoon and gusts up to 20 mph will be possible throughout the western Interior Valleys through Thursday night. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Warm temperatures expected. Daytime temperatures warm into the 50s near Utqiagvik to the low 80s on the Arctic Plains. A heat advisory is in effect for the Arctic Plains for through Thursday. - Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the Brooks Range and Western Arctic Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... The strong, persistent ridge (around 570 dm at 500 mb) over northeastern Alaska has shifted eastward since yesterday, but warm-to-hot temperatures will continue across the Interior today. Temperatures with the ridge at 850 mb are forecast to reach around 8 to 15 C across most of the Interior and North Slope, with 14 to 16 C possible in the Yukon Flats and Eastern Brooks Range today. This will support widespread surface highs in the 70s and 80s this afternoon, with the Yukon Flats potentially reaching the mid to high 80s. Vertically-stacked lows in the southeastern Bering Sea and eastern Gulf of Alaska will also have impacts on the weather in the area; the former of these two will push moisture into southwestern Alaska while the latter draws moisture into the southern/southeastern Interior. As a subtle shortwave trough moves northwestward across the Alaska Range and Western Interior where LIs will widely range from −1 to −3 C with a few hundred J/kg of surface-based CAPE, plentiful showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible. Isolated storms will also be possible in much of the eastern Interior. From tonight into tomorrow, the ridge will shift eastward, allowing for temperatures to cool by a few degrees across the area, but temperatures will still remain warmer than normal. Southerly flow through the Alaska Range will support gap winds through Isabel Pass which could gust upwards of 40 mph. The eastward movement of the ridge will also allow for showers and storm chances to extend eastward across the North Slope and Brooks Range, with scattered thunderstorms possible in the northwestern Interior, Brooks Range, and inland portions of the North Slope. These storms will have similarly low LIs and SBCAPE to today to work with. Isolated storms will remain possible elsewhere in the northern Interior but especially in the higher terrain. Farther south into the southwestern Interior, while thunderstorm chances will be much more limited than they have been recently, an isolated storm could still occur, and widespread showers are likely. From the northern slopes of the Western Alaska Range into the Upper Kuskokwim Valley, anywhere from a quarter inch to over an inch of rain will be possible through Thursday morning, contingent on where individual rain showers/storms track. Lower totals of around a quarter to a half inch of rain will be possible in eastern portions of the Lower and Middle Yukon Valleys during this same time frame. By Thursday, ridging will begin to shift westward again, but it will not be quite as strong as earlier this week, and with abundant moisture/cloud cover, it could be a 'dirty ridge' with showers and storms underneath it, with temperatures generally still being a few degrees cooler. Any thunderstorms will generally be focused in the Brooks Range and in the higher terrain of the Eastern Interior (especially along the Canadian border). Increasing westerly to southwesterly wind gusts will be possible, especially in the higher terrain and in Western Alaska, with gusts up to around 20 mph possible in the valleys. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday, the prominent ridge that has taken hold over the western portion of the state will break down, allowing ample moisture and energy to advance north. This will serve as the catalyst for numerous thunderstorms, with storms continuing to expand into the Brooks and Arctic Plains. Expect big lightning days over the next 48 hours for the west, with storms bringing increased chances for heavy rain. Anticipate the focus of storms to rotate clockwise from the western Interior today, northwest Wednesday, and to the east by the weekend. Another hot/dry day is in place for the Arctic Plains persisting into Wednesday before beginning to see some relief. Furthermore Wednesday, cooler temperatures and higher min RH penetrate into the southwest near lower Yukon, working north into the western Interior through the weekend. Focus for hot/dry will likely remain over the Yukon Flats. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Friday through Monday. A broad upper level ridge will keep much of Alaska warm and relatively dry through Friday before an upper level low moves east from the Bering Strait on Saturday. This pattern shift will bring cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover, and expanded chances for showers. Rain will spread into the YK Delta through Saturday with scattered showers becoming more common through the weekend across the state. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across portions of the Eastern Interior and areas of higher terrain in the Eastern Brooks Range where daytime heating provides enough instability, though coverage should become more limited as the cooler, wetter pattern settles in. By Monday, forecast guidancesuggests ridging may begin rebuilding, spreading from the northeast to the southwest across the state into the Bering Sea while low pressure lingers over the Gulf of Alaska. Showers may develop across the eastern Alaska Range and Upper Tanana Valley, but forecast confidence decreases early next week. There remains uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts and whether the ridge becomes strong enough to bring drier weather or if another low pressure system moves into the state from the Bering Sea, resulting in a more unsettled pattern. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Fire Weather Watch for AKZ916-918-919-928. Red Flag Warning for AKZ918-919-923-928-929. Heat Advisory for AKZ833. Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808. PK...None. && $$ DS Fire Weather - Park Extended - Cruz  282 FXUS64 KLZK 072306 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again Tuesday and to a lesser extent Wednesday afternoons. Severe weather is not expected. - Temperatures look to be close to seasonal averages for the next several days at least. - Heat index values approach heat advisory criteria late in the week over parts of the east and the Arkansas River Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection did fire up pretty much on schedule Monday afternoon through mid evening with only a few lingering cells noted over the far southwest at this time. As is usually the case with diurnally driven convection, it is a story of the haves and have nots with radar estimates ranging from not a drop to a few instances where as much as three inches fell. Other than the weakening convection over the southwest, it is generally rain free across the state although a pop up shower or storm can never be discounted. Skies are partly cloudy with some slightly cooler and drier air now in place behind a frontal boundary, temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The piece of energy responsible for the convection on Monday is now located over NE Arkansas in the base of a weak, positively tilted trough. This feature will finally clear the state by mid to late afternoon but before it does, additional diurnally convection is expected as the airmass remains moist and unstable. CAMS guidance is showing the convection much more scattered in nature versus Monday and dissipating quickly with the loss of daytime heating. The aforementioned upper trough will remain over the FA on Wednesday but with the energy well to the NE, any precipitation looks to be the typical afternoon through early evening convection as higher pressure tries to nose into the region from the southeast. This set up will likely stick around through Friday with precipitation chances trending upwards over the weekend and into early next week as a backdoor front approaches from the NE. Temperatures look to be typical for early to mid July across the FA with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s today and then just 90s across the board moving forward. Lows also look close to seasonal averages. Heat indices will be well below criteria through Thursday when some areas of eastern Arkansas and the river valley get close to or exceed criteria. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this evening across much of the state. The best chance for storms will be across central and southern terminals. MVFR/IFR are possible where storms set up. Elsewhere, MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Low VIS and CIGs are likely with thunderstorms in addition to gusty winds. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to come to an end just after sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 70 91 73 95 / 20 20 0 10 Camden AR 70 92 73 95 / 20 30 10 10 Harrison AR 68 90 72 93 / 10 10 0 10 Hot Springs AR 72 93 74 95 / 10 30 10 0 Little Rock AR 73 93 75 96 / 10 20 10 10 Monticello AR 72 92 74 94 / 20 40 10 10 Mount Ida AR 71 91 73 93 / 10 40 10 0 Mountain Home AR 69 89 72 92 / 20 10 10 10 Newport AR 71 91 74 96 / 30 10 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 72 92 74 95 / 10 30 10 10 Russellville AR 72 94 75 96 / 10 10 0 10 Searcy AR 70 92 73 96 / 20 20 10 0 Stuttgart AR 73 92 75 96 / 10 20 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...73  303 FXUS65 KRIW 072307 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 507 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today is another day of seasonable temperatures with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, with the main concerns being frequent lightning, strong wind gusts around 50 mph, pea-to dime-sized hail, and brief heavy rain. Showers are expected to linger overnight from west-central WY eastward toward eastern WY. - Wednesday will see another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with near seasonable temperatures. Strong storms are possible over Johnson County late Wednesday afternoon. Showers will again linger Wednesday night into Thursday morning over some areas. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again Thursday afternoon over central WY, and perhaps Friday afternoon across western WY. Temperatures begin to climb on Friday to 5-10 degrees above normal. - Very warm to hot temperatures are expected this weekend along with dry conditions. Record-breaking temperatures are possible Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, with mid 90s in the western valleys, and 100 to 105 degrees in the basins east of the divide. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 As I wrote in a couple of discussions last week about this same time of day, another shortwave trough is moving from the northeast Great Basin through Wyoming. Moisture is ample with surface dew points ranging from the low 40s to the mid 50s and precipitable water values around two-thirds to three-quarters of an inch. Based on the RIW 18Z sounding (still in flight), as temperatures reach around 90 F, CAPE around 1000 J/kg will allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop and continue through the afternoon and into the evening. As of 1210 PM, convection has already initiated in the Upper Green River Basin and near Cokeville and Flaming Gorge, moving ENE today. The area from southwest WY toward central WY and into Johnson County will have the higher probabilities of thunderstorms today, with gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph the primary threat, especially in areas where the dew point depressions are larger. Brief heavy rain even from higher cloud bases and small(ish) hail will also occur with frequent lightning. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms for northeast WY, so storms that develop around Johnson County from 5 to 8 PM have a higher chance of producing severe convective weather. CAMs and mesoscale models continue to show areas of showers through midnight across much of western and central WY too. The general instability and increased boundary layer moisture continues into Wednesday for more isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary threat, with stronger storms expected yet again over Johnson County. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms continue to linger across the state early this morning. As of writing this around 0100 MDT, a couple flashes of lightning have been detected over portions of western WY. However, convective activity is gradually waning with clusters of lightning continuing to decrease. Precipitation chances will remain mostly across western and northern WY through the predawn hours. Showers and storms will continue to trek east through the morning with the bulk dissipating by sunrise. A shortwave will be the main instigator for the "active" weather today and Wednesday. The shortwave currently is making its way across Montana while ushering in above normal moisture to the region. This can be seen with PWATs being nearly 100-150% above normal across much of the area. Dewpoints also reflect this with portions of the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County likely to see values in the 50s this afternoon. As for temperatures, they will be similar to Monday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s east of the Divide and low to mid 80s west of the Divide. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible later this afternoon and evening. Coverage today will shift farther south with northwestern WY likely having lesser chances of seeing a shower or storm compared to elsewhere. Precipitation chances across the forecast area aside from northwestern WY look to range from 20-40% with the best chances being over central and portions of southern WY. The other aspect regarding the convection possible this afternoon and evening, will be the potential for a few strong to severe storms developing. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of the state with a marginal risk (1 out of 5). The only exception to this is portions of northwestern and western WY, specifically much of YNP and the Tetons/Jackson Hole where the marginal risk has been excluded. There is a very small sliver of slight risk (2 out of 5) for a portion of Johnson County mainly due to large hail threat. The setup is a wide swath of above normal moisture across the area. Morning cloud cover is expected to gradually clear by the early afternoon with daytime heating helping produce CAPE values around 500 J/kg over much of the state. Some CAMs are highlighting portions of Johnson County and central WY with swaths of CAPE nearing 1000 J/kg. So if this were to occur, there could be more juice for any storms that develop. Steep low to mid level lapse rates are forecast over much of the state as well. The other factor will be favorable dynamics as a result of the nearby short wave. Low to mid level wind shear values currently look to range from 25 to 35 knots. Overall, the main threat today will be strong gusty winds with CAMs highlighting favorable Downdraft CAPE values. Storms could produce strong gusty outflow winds of 50 mph or more at times. There does remain a threat for hail with the most favorable locations being central and northern WY, specifically Johnson County. Otherwise, frequent lightning and brief moderate rainfall may be possible with any storms. Showers and thunderstorms may linger into the late evening hours Tuesday and possibly into the early morning hours Wednesday. Wednesday has trended towards another day with possible afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This once again is the result of lingering moisture and the exiting shortwave. Currently, much of the state looks to have similar chances for precipitation as Tuesday. However, chances for strong to severe storms looks to diminish and shift farther east. The SPC currently has far eastern portions of Johnson and Natrona Counties in a marginal risk with the main concerns being strong gusty winds and hail. Aside from these locations, the remainder of the state will see similar hazards as the previous days with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail possible. No, there does not seem to have been a technical glitch in the long term forecast models, it really is looking to be that hot this weekend. Some long term models have done a good job of indicating this heat as early as last week. Barring some miraculous shift in the weather pattern, we are likely to see a period of dangerously hot, record breaking temperatures this weekend. This heat will be the result of an anomalously potent high pressure ridge that builds across the western/central CONUS. Temperatures start to turn up Friday with current highs getting into the mid to upper 90s east of the Divide and upper 80s to low 90s west of the Divide. The warmest temperatures look to arrive for the weekend. Guidance is showing western valleys such as Star Valley and Jackson Hole possibly seeing highs around 95F Saturday. Locations east of the Divide to no surprise are warmer, with central basins seeing highs nearing the century mark. Northern locations, such as portions of the Bighorn Basin may see highs nearing 105F. Sunday looks even warmer with locations west of the Divide seeing 20-40% of highs nearing 100F. East of the Divide central basins have 20-50% for highs around 105F. Portions of the Bighorn Basin may see highs near 110F with chances sitting around 10-30%. These percentages are to show the potential range for high temperatures. So if there is a 20-50% for highs near 105F, its likely the highs will at least be greater than 100F. There is increasing likelihood that numerous daily high temperature records and even all-time high temperature records may be met or broken. Climate data at KLND goes back to 1891 and the current all time high temperature is 102F set back in 1935 on July 27th. Currently, the NBM has a forecast high of 104F for Sunday, so that should give an idea of how historic this period of heat may be. Yes, this degree of heat can be dangerous for those who are at risk or do not use caution. So be sure to stay up to date on the forecast and be prepared, especially if planning outdoor activities! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 506 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection continues into Tuesday evening before coverage and intensity begin to subside between 02Z-05Z/Wednesday. Gusty wind 25- 40kts remains the primary hazard. However, better surface moisture could still allow for brief, less than 30-minute, MVFR to IFR visibility over the north-half of the state, while a dry sub-cloud base over the south favors gusty outflow wind 30-45kts. Moisture in the northern Great Basin persists in streaming northeast across the forecast area much of tonight. As a result, light showers linger overnight, especially across the southern-third of Wyoming. By 15Z/Wednesday, cloud cover clears the region and allows for better daytime heating heading into the afternoon. This sets the stage for another round of afternoon convection, although coverage should be less than that of Tuesday. Confidence is highest for Wednesday afternoon storms in the vicinity of KRKS and near the northern terminals of KCOD and KWRL where PROB30 groups have been included. Otherwise, all terminals to be VFR through the period with the possible exception of the aforementioned short-term MVFR. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...McDonald DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...CNJ/Rowe  400 FXUS63 KGRR 072309 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 709 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slow moving front brings rain, storms late week - Upper High builds in early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Slow moving front brings rain, storms late week Quasi-zonal flow regime this week with upper height falls attending a slow-moving cold front sagging south through the Great Lakes. We will see chances for showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday night through Friday as the front becomes almost parallel to the flow. By Thursday, training of storms could result in minor flooding but in most areas rainfall should be beneficial rather than excessive. Severe weather chances are marginal Wednesday night with limited instability and deep layer shear. - Upper High builds in early next week The rains should end across the southern zones over the weekend as the front sags south then large scale subsidence and drying begins with an upper high across the Northern Plains edging into Lower Michigan. Expect warm and dry for early next week before heights fall as an upper trough amplifies across eastern Canada. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 708 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Any remaining Cu will diminish after sunset with limited Cu development possible again on Wednesday around 5kft. Can't rule out some patchy ground fog overnight, with the best signal at JXN which climatologically is also our favored site for fog development. Have not included restrictions at any terminal besides JXN given low confidence (20-30% chance) of MVFR conditions at these sites, with moderate confidence (near 50%) at JXN. Any fog that develops will diminish shortly after daybreak given strong July mixing with VFR conditions then expected through the end of the TAF period. Winds will become light and variable overnight before increasing to 5-8 knots from the southwest on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Fairly tranquil weather this week except for the possibility of thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy downpours Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Wind direction will be frequently changing with north winds tonight going south on Wednesday then north again on Thursday and Friday, but generally remaining at or below 15 knots. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Wednesday night for MIZ050-056-057-064-065-071. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Ostuno  409 FXUS63 KIWX 072309 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 709 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures are expected through the remainder of the week. Temperatures and humidity levels may creep upward late this weekend into early next week. - Dry conditions are expected through early Thursday. Chances of showers and storms will increase later Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 No significant changes were made to the inherited forecast for this cycle. Quiet conditions prevail today courtesy of broad subsidence associated w/ the building upper-level ridge. Weak flow aloft will persist through mid-week as the bulk of the mid & upper level jet energy remains well to the north. Chances for precipitation should increase by later Thursday as the ridge flattens in response to a low-amplitude short wave traversing the flow across the Lower Great Lakes. Increasing flow aloft should contribute to shear profiles supportive of organized convection, though it is difficult to tell at this point whether sufficient instability will exist for a more substantial forward-propgating severe MCS or more of a heavy rain threat with expected PWATs approaching or exceeding 2 inches. Still, high confidence exists in a large portion of the area receiving measurable rainfall from Thursday night through Friday. /Hammer Previous Discussion (Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026): The very slow moving mid/upper level trough that has produced multiple days of scattered showers and storms is now slowly pushing across the eastern Great Lakes region this morning. A broad upper vort filament extends to the southwest across central Indiana, trailing back to a closed low feature across northeast Arkansas. Mid/upper level ridging will begin to build back into the southern Great Lakes region in the wake of this broad negative upper height anomaly with an associated broad low level anticyclone building in from the northwest through Wednesday. The progression of this wave pattern and northerly low level flow east of the ridge axis will allow for a drier airmass across central/northern Lower MI (~0.60 PWATs in 00Z APX RAOB) to advect southward across the local area. This drier airmass combined with broad synoptic scale subsidence will provide pleasant conditions today. Highs should be 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday based mostly on increased insolation. Light/calm winds and mainly clear skies are expected tonight as anticyclone builds east. May need to watch for some patchy fog potential across far NE IN/NW OH early Wednesday on eastern periphery of the high building eastward. Some high clouds may also clip southern/southeast portion of the forecast area in association with eastward migration of the Lower MS Valley cut-off low which could also help limit fog formation. Wednesday should largely feature similar conditions to that of Tuesday with perhaps another degree or two of warming with modification of low level airmass in subsidence regime. Dew points will remain in check in low-mid 60s however. For Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper level short wave currently lifting across ID/western MT will help deamplify western CONUS upper ridge and this short wave is expected to dampen across the northern Great Lakes Wed PM. Dry conditions will persist through Wednesday night as better low level moisture transport remains confined to the Plains into the Upper MS Valley. Best moisture convergence across the central Plains could give rise to another convectively enhanced vort max shifting eastward into IL/IN Thursday afternoon into Friday. At the same time, guidance is in general agreement that upstream western CONUS ridge will start to amplify againwhich raises some question as to how far north and east pocket of better instability can reach during this period from the Mid MS Valley. This low amplitude flattened flow pattern will provide some better westerly shear by the late Wed/Thu period, but instability magnitudes is an item of lower confidence with possibility that effective low level boundary and reservoir of better instability could be confined west and southwest of the local area. More veered westerly deep layer flow by Thursday could yield some weak propagation vectors, and with high PWAT airmass in place by this time, cannot rule out some decent rainfall amounts late Thursday/Friday. However, some possibility exists that areas west/southwest of the local area may be most favored for heavier rainfall. Some low PoPs were maintained into Saturday given uncertainty in evolution of any convective enhancement to short waves, although by this time, bulk of guidance suggests drying trend as effective frontal boundary may slip south of the area. Medium range guidance continues to suggest more pronounced amplification of the central CONUS ridge by late weekend into early next week that should support a warming trend toward the end of the period with some increase in humidity. It is possible some upward adjustments may be needed to temps by next Monday with deterministic/ensemble guidance starting to come into a little better agreement by next Monday regarding this scenario. After Monday, confidence begins to wane as ensemble spreads become more dramatic in the handling of the extent of strength of waves topping this ridge affecting the longitudinal placement of the ridge axis by the middle of next week. Mainly dry conditions have been maintained for the weekend into Monday when guidance exhibits this stronger agreement in ridge placement. /Marsili && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 702 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions through most of the period especially for KSBN. Some MVFR vsbys in mist/patchy fog possible from 08z through 12z Wed for KFWA with clear skies, light winds, and expectations of only one to two degree dew point depressions overnight tonight. Light southwesterly winds around 5 to 7 kts through this TAF period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight CDT Wednesday night for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Wednesday night for MIZ078-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hammer/Marsili AVIATION...Andersen  451 FXUS64 KOUN 072309 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 601 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - A few isolated showers and storms may be possible today across southeast/south central and western Oklahoma. - Storm chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend with a slight shift in the pattern aloft. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through next weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A few showers have developed in the cumulus field across western Oklahoma along an axis from Woodward to Duncan and Ardmore. The CAMs (mainly the Hi-res NAM and the ARW) only marginally showed this area and of course the NBM had no clue, so have added some low POPs along the axis of the best cumulus field into western Oklahoma. These storms should be isolated and mainly diurnal, but mesoanalysis does show high Downdraft CAPE values (~1500 J/kg) that any strong, established core could produce some strong winds. Later tonight, a number of the CAMs have some signal of at least isolated convection in southeast Oklahoma toward sunrise, similar to what we saw with the ACCAS field this morning. So have added an area of slight chance POPs across the southeast early Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Some lingering showers may persist in the morning in the southeast with additional development of isolated showers/storms again in the afternoon southeast. A shortwave moves through the central Rockies on Thursday and into the central Plains Thursday night. Storms will likely develop over the High Plains of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon, and push into the Plains Thursday night. Although the best chances of storms will be farther north, there is still potential for some of these storms to move across northern Oklahoma. Warmer highs are expected Wednesday and Thursday as low-level flow veers with more of a downslope component, and the low-level thermal axis shift east from the High Plains toward the lower plains. With this veering low-level flow also comes lower dewpoints, so heat index values will be kept somewhat in check by the lower humidity. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Temperatures are expected to be cooler into the weekend as the ridge remains across the Desert Southwest, eventually moving northward across the rockies. Although temperatures will be cooler, the low- level moisture will increase as well. In turn, heat indices will remain in the 100-105 F range through the weekend. Widespread rain and thunderstorm chances will be possible through Sunday. Similar temperatures/heat indices are expected into early next week. Bunker && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Cumulus clouds are beginning to dissipate for the night across the area. Cloud development may be a little more sporadic tomorrow with winds remaining out of the south or south-southwest, but with moist soils would expect at least some areas scattered in the 5,000-7,000 foot range. Winds will be near or below 12 knots with VFR visibilities. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 72 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 73 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 74 100 78 101 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 72 101 76 101 / 0 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 70 95 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 74 97 79 98 / 20 20 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...04  699 FXUS63 KDDC 072311 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 611 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple opportunities for organized thunderstorm activity, particularly late evening into late night, Wednesday Night through early Saturday Morning. - Large area of 1/2" or more total rainfall during the above mentioned period likely across much of southwest and west central Kansas (50 to 60% chance). - Pattern chance to much drier period beginning this weekend, continuing through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thunderstorm coverage, severity, and timing will all be among the main forecast challenges over the next several days until we see a pattern shift this weekend. The positive-tilted ridge axis which was centered across Colorado into western Kansas will continue to break down as somewhat stronger mid tropospheric flow enters the Colorado Rockies and adjacent central High Plains. The increased mid level flow will act to enhance the low level leeside trough, thus enhancing convergence as well as upslope flow north of wherever a surface low develops. All of these things combined will support mesoscale convective system (MCS) activity from eastern Colorado into western Kansas beginning Wednesday evening. This morning's 12Z run of the HREF model appears to be lining up well with the global model ensemble systems (100-member Grand Ensemble) and its mean QPF field, lending higher confidence in Wednesday Night's MCS tracking more over the northwestern third of Kansas. As such, higher POPs in the NBM will be confined to the northwestern third of the DDC CWA. It still appears as though Wednesday Night/early Thursday Morning's MCS will push an outflow boundary across southwest Kansas, which would likely stall out, weaken, and eventually become replaced by broad east-southeasterly winds back into far southwest/west central Kansas into eastern Colorado -- setting the stage for a better MCS scenario for southwestern Kansas Thursday Night. POPs continue to go up on the NBM given increasing run-to-run consistency among more of the global model ensemble members. A formidable MCS should track east- southeastward through the night across much of southwest Kansas with increasing signals of 1/2" or more 24-hour rainfall amounts, highest 35-45% generally north of a Syracuse to Dodge City to La Crosse line. There will likely be one more opportunity for a MCS to impact portions of southwest Kansas Friday Night/early Saturday morning as NBM does maintain some 20-30% probabilities of 1/2" more rainfall in the 24-hr period 7am Friday to 7am Saturday (CDT), but much of this will depend on air mass recovery from Thursday Night's event. After Friday Night, a large upper level high will develop and expand across much of the central CONUS, with signals of the center of this high being north of Southwest Kansas. This synoptic setup would favor a heat wave focused more on areas north and northwest of our southwest Kansas region, thus probabilities of 100+ for highs have actually been decreasing in the medium range portion of the forecast going into next week as daily highs in the lower to mid 90s appear more likely now vs. upper 90s to lower 100s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Dying storms will move out of Colorado late this evening and provide a mid and high level cloud deck over western Kansas through the morning hours on Wednesday. Winds should stay breezy sustained around 12 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts at times. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Tatro  794 FXUS63 KLSX 072311 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 611 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures gradually warm through Thursday or Friday. - The potential for showers and thunderstorms increases late Thursday through Saturday with at least a low threat for severe thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Broad surface high pressure remains centered near the Mississippi River at the Iowa/Illinois border. The flow around this high has led to the more modest humidity the past few days along with cooler temperatures. Looking aloft, our region is in a weakness in between two ridges. The ridge that brought our recent heat has weakened and shifted southeast into the western Atlantic, while a new ridge has strengthened over the Rocky Mountains. In the weakness in between we see multiple weak lows stretching from the Rio Grande through the Midsouth and to New England. The one nearest to us is currently spinning near southeast Missouri making very slow progress toward the Ohio River. With enough lingering low level moisture and cooler temperatures aloft within the trough, instability has built up with the heat of the day. With added support from the vorticity aloft, we'll see isolated showers and a few embedded thunderstorms this afternoon mainly in southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. With little to no wind shear to work with, any storms will be of the pulse variety with primarily a threat for locally heavy downpours and lightning. These should dissipate for the most part within a couple of hours of sunset. We'll see a similar story for Wednesday, but with slightly warmer temperatures and perhaps a little less coverage of showers locally. The trough weakens and slowly pushes east while we get another day of July sun working to modify the air mass in place. Temperatures begin to approach 90 degrees, especially in central Missouri closer to the influence of the western ridge. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A shortwave trough rounding the top of the western ridge will dip southeast into the Upper Midwest on Thursday, sliding a surface cold front southward into Iowa and northern Illinois. Our area should remain south of the front on Thursday allowing for another day of warming, into the low 90s. Thankfully, though, humidity remains modest without a significant moisture connection to the Gulf, meaning heat index values top out only around 100 degrees. As the front continues to dip southward it will serve as a focus for multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the coming days as additional shortwave troughs track eastward in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Wind shear does increase just enough to support some storm organization with the potential for one or more Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) to develop mainly Thursday evening and again Friday evening. Where these more organized thunderstorms develop there will exist a greater threat for damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Each round of storms has the net effect of gradually shifting the surface boundary southward, though how quickly this progression occurs remains to be seen. This frontal positioning, and any cloud cover associated with the rounds of thunderstorms, will impact the temperature forecast Friday and Saturday. If the front doesn't move very quickly southward and we see strong sunshine, then Friday could be just as hot or a bit hotter than Thursday. The latest forecast assumes more cloud cover and a gradual southward push of the front, leading to lower high temperatures each day through Saturday. Late in the weekend the western ridge strengthens and expands into the Northern Plains. This has the effect of pushing surface high pressure southward through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday, further shoving the surface front southward. With the front further south, the daily threat of storms also shifts southward leading to a drier forecast as we go into early next week. But with the ridge building to our north we'll also see temperatures begin to rise again. Guidance varies on how the ridge progresses, with some eventually pushing the center of the ridge over our area. Thus there's some uncertainty on just how hot it will get. However, confidence in high temperatures in the 90s increases each day through the middle of next week, with NBM probability of 90+ reaching about 50 to 60 percent by Tuesday. However, with the surface high nearby it will block access to richer Gulf moisture, keeping humidity levels more modest for this time of year and holding heat index values in check. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions and light winds are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period. Overnight, there is a low probability for impactful fog primarily at river valley sites (JEF/SUS/CPS), but this has struggled to materialize the past couple of nights under similar conditions, and has been omitted from the TAF due to low confidence. Some afternoon cumulus is likely again near the end of the period with weak showers east and south of local terminals. BRC && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  865 FXUS63 KOAX 072312 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-normal temperatures continue through the work week, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. - Periodic chances for showers and storms Wednesday through Friday. Main hazards with any strong-severe storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding. - A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected this weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Another quiet day today with mostly clear skies and light winds generally out of the south. High pressure remains over the region for one more day before a jet streak pushing east out of California breaks down the ridge leading to a more active weather pattern for the rest of the week. Highs today will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices warming into the low-to-mid 90s. As the ridge breaks down, we'll see the return of the low-level jet, advecting more moisture into the region from the Gulf. At the same time, we'll see a shortwave pull the main active frontal boundary back south to right near the Nebraska-South Dakota state line. Over the next few days we'll see shortwaves interact with this boundary as well as nocturnal activation of the low-level jet leading to periodic storm chances across our area. Wednesday with increasing moisture expect to see increasing cloud cover, especially through the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures won't be much warmer than we see today, but humidity will be about 5 to 10 percent higher, bringing heat indices up into the mid-to-upper 90s. The previously mentioned shortwave moving through during the day tomorrow could activate a few pop-up showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary threat with these storms appears to be damaging winds due to dry air in the lower levels keeping cloud bases fairly high. Model soundings show a fairly decent inverted-v signature, indicative of a damaging wind threat. Still think any severe weather will be fairly isolated at this time due to weak environmental shear. The better chance for more widespread storms will be with an MCS rolling through out of central Nebraska overnight. This MCS develops from afternoon/evening storms that start out over eastern Colorado/western Nebraska, coming together and likely maturing at it's strongest over central Nebraska. As it moves into our area, we should see a weakening trend with damaging winds being the primary threat. This is corroborated by the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook showing a level 2 "slight" risk over central Nebraska transitioning to a level 1 "marginal" risk over eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Thursday's weather will be highly dependent on what happens with storms overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, but guidance is in fairly good agreement with showers lingering across our area through Thursday morning. Cloud cover likely will keep temperatures cooler through the afternoon, though highs will still be in the 80s. Thursday night, we expect another MCS to roll through, more across far southern portions of our area with potential for more heavy rain and low threat for damaging winds. Depending on this system's track, we could see showers and storms linger into Friday morning as well, with temperatures again staying somewhat milder through the afternoon with highs in the 80s. Going into the weekend, we see a strong ridge start to build up over the Rockies signaling a prolonged period of heat on it's way. Temperatures will start trending back upward on Saturday while expanding High Pressure spreads over the Northern Plains to Great Lakes region. Highs on Saturday will warm back into the mid 80s to near 90, continuing this trend back into the upper 80s to mid 90s on Sunday. Extended guidance has slowed down the warming trend, getting us closer to Extreme Heat more likely toward Monday-Tuesday of next week now. Rain chances are likely to dry up, so if you haven't had to use your sprinklers yet this season, you might want to make sure they're working here soon. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Relatively light south winds continue this evening into tonight. A widely scattered cumulus deck around 5 kft should dissipate later this evening. Increasing clouds is forecast on Wednesday as our next weather system approaches. During the morning into the afternoon, winds shift towards the southwest with scattered cumulus developing around 6 kft. Any showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to remain north and west of the area until late in the period. OFK can expect a low chance of thunderstorms during Wednesday afternoon, but timing and coverage remains low confidence at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Chehak  749 FXUS64 KBMX 072312 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026 - Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for much of the upcoming week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. - Pattern Change Next Week: A very strong and elongated ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over the center of the U.S. by next week. As a result, confidence is increasing for above-average temperatures by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 132 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Just after midday, scattered showers and storms have formed primarily over western and northwestern counties, driven by a remnant MCV and an eastward-moving outflow boundary from Mississippi. Additionally, a weak mid-level closed low over the Missouri bootheel continues to offer synoptic lift. Consequently, scattered to numerous showers and storms are projected to develop across the CWA through the afternoon, with the best coverage across western and northwestern counties. Typical summertime hazards can be expected with these storms, including frequent lightning, heavy tropical downpours, and gusty winds ranging from 20 to 30 mph. Conditions will remain hot and humid as afternoon highs reach the low to mid-90s, pushing heat indices to 100 degrees or slightly above. Over the next few days, the closed low is forecast to slowly drift northeastward and weaken into an open wave, though lingering 500mb lift will stretch southward into the Tennessee Valley. This will maintain afternoon chances for scattered showers and storms through Thursday. Flow at 500mb turns temporarily zonal for Friday and Saturday before a larger CONUS pattern shift takes shape by Sunday. An anomalous 500mb ridge is advertised to greatly expand across much of the country by Monday, spanning from the Four Corners region to the Great Plains and Great Lakes. While the Deep South sits on the southeastern periphery of the ridge, a rare July surface front will slide southward into the area by Sunday. This front, combined with mid- level shortwave impulses embedded in northwesterly flow, is forecast to trigger widespread shower and storm development on both Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, model confidence decreases due to global guidance variations regarding the depth and scale of the 500mb CONUS ridge. Nevertheless, confidence is building for above-average temperatures across the Deep South toward the end of next week, though daily convective coverage appears more uncertain at this time. 56/GDG && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Lingering showers and storms are expected to persist through 02z. Subsequent clearing and calm winds will support the development of patchy fog at MGM, EET, and TCL from 10z to 13z, potentially reducing visibilities to less than 5 SM at times. Additional showers and storms are anticipated Wednesday afternoon as diurnal heating interacts with residual boundaries; therefore, a PROB30 for TSRA has been included for TCL, EET, and BHM where the most confidence exists for convective development. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week. Thunderstorms will also remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain little to none for most of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 91 72 91 / 20 50 40 60 Anniston 71 91 73 90 / 30 40 30 50 Birmingham 73 92 74 92 / 20 40 30 40 Tuscaloosa 72 91 73 92 / 20 40 30 40 Calera 72 94 73 94 / 20 40 30 40 Auburn 74 91 74 91 / 30 20 20 30 Montgomery 74 94 75 93 / 30 20 20 30 Troy 73 93 74 92 / 30 30 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...56/GDG AVIATION...16  796 FXUS64 KTSA 072312 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Isolated afternoon storms today and Wednesday, particularly in SE OK and NW AR. - Temperatures near normal today, then rising above normal for the remainder of the week. Heat indices in the low-mid 100s possible Wednesday onward. - Thunderstorm chances trend higher late week through the weekend. - The Arkansas River near Muskogee remains in action stage but below flood stage. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon with a mid-level low lingering over Arkansas. Storm coverage should be less than yesterday and focused more across SE OK and into NW AR. Locally gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and cloud-to-ground lightning will remain the primary hazards with any storms today. Convection is likely to decrease after sunset as the atmosphere stabilizes. A few isolated storms may linger into the night near the aforementioned area of low pressure/upper trough axis, but much of this is likely to remain east and south of the forecast area. Otherwise, conditions similar to last night are expected with decreasing clouds and lows within a few degrees of 70. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 CAMs suggest at least low potential for isolated precip near the Red River again Wednesday morning. Additional isolated showers and pulse thunderstorms will be possible again during the afternoon, with the most focus across higher terrain of SE OK and W-Central AR. Warmer afternoon temperatures are likely across the area tomorrow, especially E OK, as upper level ridging expands into the area. Wednesday night into Thursday, a shortwave ejects out of the Rockies and moves into the C Plains. This is not currently expected to impact our area much, though temperatures Thursday will likely warm slightly given an increase in southwest sfc winds. Will need to monitor dew point trends tomorrow and especially Thursday as heat indices may once again flirt with advisory-criteria...mainly for the typical parts of NE OK and the AR River Valley. Thursday night into Friday, another wave moves east into the plains and forces a frontal boundary south into or near northern portions of the CWA. Renewed thunderstorm chances occur as a result, mainly along and north of Hwy 412. The front will tend to remain nearby in some form as the upper level pattern becomes more favorable for more widespread diurnal convection this weekend. Ridging is forecast to become displaced to the west with weak troughing moving into the S Plains Saturday and Sunday. By early next week, upper ridging re-intensifies across the northern plains with the aforementioned wave sliding along the southern and western periphery. Heights generally increase over our area through midweek with warmer and drier conditions returning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Aside from the potential for a storm in or around the KFSM terminal in the near term, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with some morning mid cloud across eastern OK and afternoon cu at all sites. The main exception will be potential for fog at KFYV. There was dense fog there last night but that was also following rain. Guidance is a lot less bullish with the fog forecast for tonight, but to hedge the going forecast for TEMPO light MVFR fog will be kept. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 96 78 98 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 73 96 76 98 / 10 20 10 0 MLC 72 96 77 97 / 10 20 10 0 BVO 68 94 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 68 92 72 94 / 10 20 10 0 BYV 67 91 73 94 / 10 20 10 0 MKO 71 94 76 97 / 10 20 10 0 MIO 68 93 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 F10 70 95 76 96 / 10 20 10 0 HHW 72 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...30  975 FXAK67 PAJK 072315 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 315 PM AKDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - An organized band of stronger showers is over Baranof and Prince of Wales Island and will continue to move inland Tuesday evening - A slight chance of isolated thunderstorms will be possible, with potentially gusty outflows from the stronger cells - Active weather continues midweek as shower potential continues Wednesday and another front moves into the central and southern panhandle through the evening && .SHORT TERM.../ through Thursday night / The with the inner frontal band wraps spinning showers along the coast line of Baranof Island to Cape Edgecumbe and then westward into the gulf. Some of the showers are stronger with locally gusty winds, the Low will drift ESE into the southern panhandle overnight before falling apart. Mid level support and orographic lifting may allow stronger convection sufficient to spark a few isolated thunderstorm for the southern portion of the panhandle this evening and perhaps Wednesday afternoon towards the Misty Fjords area of the panhandle. Should see showers tapering off over the south, but the next incoming trough across the southern gulf to the southern panhandle Wednesday evening/night. The northern gulf and panhandle is looking drier and the front is sweeping to the area, but not over the northeast gulf. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/...After the low pressure on Thursday brings a front across the southern half of the panhandle, this low will move southeastward and dissipate quickly as it gets near Haida Gwaii overnight into Friday morning. The remnants of this low will keep some precipitation chances into the morning for the far southern panhandle Friday. As for the northern panhandle, a low to the NE of the panhandle in Canada will bring a band of showers southeastward Friday. The timing and extent of this easterly wave is still uncertain at this time, associated with some disagreement on the timing of a shortwave and upper level band of vorticity moving through the area around the upper level low in Canada, and the overall presence of the upper level low into the end of the week as some ridging attempts to build over the interior and Yukon. The confidence as of now is for the wave to push through the northern panhandle from Skagway and Haines down Lynn Canal through Friday morning, into the central panhandle by the afternoon hours, before just grazing the coastal mountains of the southern panhandle by the evening. This uncertain pattern continues into the weekend as the possibility of some weak easterly waves impacting the panhandle lasts through Sunday night with this main low sitting to the NE. None of these waves appear to have as much confidence past Friday's shortwave, but with the ridging building over the Gulf and panhandle into this weekend, the chances for drier weather and breaks in the cloud cover is higher for this weekend across much of the panhandle as this more benign pattern sets in. && .AVIATION...Active pattern from an aviation standpoint for the southern half of the panhandle while a line of showers work their way eastward towards Prince of Wales Island. Looking at NUCAPS soundings out ahead of the front, there is some evidence of less than expected lapse rates between 850-500 mb, with good confidence, however, this may change with the 0z Annette sounding. Regardless, embedded thunderstorm development, particularly in southern PoW and southern Clarence Strait including Ketchikan is possible due to orographic lift. Guidance does indicate that CAPE values greater than 300 J/kg are possible ahead of this system, partly with assistance of daytime heating around the Ketchikan area. Any thunderstorms that dodevelop are expected to be associated with wind gusts up to 35 knots, CIGs AoB 2000 ft, and moderate rain showers with visibilities less than 4 SM. Behind this convective system, unstable conditions will still be present without a clear lifting mechanism; however, it is possible to see some occasional rain showers. && .MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the inside waters mainly remain southeasterly around or below 10 kts with the exception of Clarence Strait and Taiya Inlet. These areas have seen southerly winds increase to around 20 kts late this morning into this afternoon. Along with this, a slight chance of thunderstorms continues into this evening for southern areas. The main impact will be erratic gusty winds that can quickly increase. Todays higher winds will remain into tonight before the overall wind trend is diminishing winds. The next front starts to make its way through the gulf tomorrow. This will once again increase winds. Again the main areas, with strongest winds, are most likely to be over N Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait. Those areas could see winds increase to 15 to 20 kts. Winds and seas will then diminish once again Thursday. Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): An area of low pressure remains just west of Baranof Island slowly moving southeasterly. Due to this low, areas from Baranof Island southward will continue to see south to southwesterly winds around 20 kts into this evening. There continues to be a slight chance of thunderstorms along the coast, south of Baranof Island into tonight. The main impact from any thunderstorm development will be gusty winds. There may also be a few lightning strikes possible. Later winds will then begin to diminish into Wednesday. The next front will then move across the gulf Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will once again increase winds to around 20 kts from the southeast. We may see some of these increased winds last into Thursday before a broad ridge enters the gulf decreasing winds. This ridge will also change wind direction to become more northwesterly. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM...Contino AVIATION...NC MARINE...EAB Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  017 FXUS61 KPBZ 072315 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 715 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flash flood watch cancelled in western PA. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) More limited convection on Wednesday 2) Unsettled pattern Thursday through the weekend, with some severe thunderstorm and flood potential && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Conditions are expected to be less favorable for convection on Wednesday, with flat ridging and a possible cap aloft. Expect the best chance for convection across the higher terrain areas, though outflows and low convective temperatures could result in a shower or storm outside of the terrain as well. KEY MESSAGE 2... The Thursday period and into the weekend will feature a trough setting up over the east and deepening. This will allow multiple shortwaves to pass through the forecast area in northwest flow. The Thursday through Saturday period will feature the best chance for showers and thunderstorms to create some issues with flood or severe weather. Daytime heating each day along with the lift in place will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop by midday and persist through the evening. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is in place for Friday and Saturday. As well, although not outlooked by SPC, the CSU machine learning highlights the area for Thursday through Saturday with a potential of severe weather due to the wind outlook. This setup into the weekend will need monitored for an upgrade to a Marginal in SPC and/or the potential for a Flood Watch Thursday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR prevails to begin the TAF window as shower and storm activity wanes and moves further south and east with the departing shortwave. Morning fog and stratus still looks in store for many ports overnight but effects may be curbed a touch without reinforcing moisture from additional rainfall this afternoon and evening. As such, some prevailing groups have been cut back to TEMPO groups. Fog impacts seem likely closest to river valleys, the eastern ridges and south of PIT in areas that did see rain this past afternoon. Fog and low stratus are expected to lift and break beginning after sunrise but widespread VFR may not return until mid- afternoon. A couple of PROB30 groups have been included for LBE and MGW, where additional isolated shower and storm activity is expected tomorrow afternoon. Outlook... Mainly VFR broken by morning fog and stratus is expected through Thursday under high pressure and capping warmth aloft. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday as the high begins to weaken. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Milcarek/Shallenberger AVIATION...AK  964 FXUS64 KBRO 072315 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 615 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 * Hot conditions continue through the week. Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk each day, mainly in the Valley becoming more widespread this weekend. Heat indices will climb to between 100 and 110 degrees each day. * Daily thunderstorm chances will be low (generally under 20%) through midweek, before increasing on Friday. * There is generally a low risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate late this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 An upper level trough of low pressure extending from New England southwestward and sfc high pressure over the SE U.S. has led to a bit more unsettled weather than previously anticipated. While rain chances overall will remain low (20% or less) over the next few days, high moisture content will allow any thunderstorm or shower activity to produce heavy rainfall. This could lead to localized areas of ponding of water of roadways and low lying/poor drainage areas. Late week, moisture will deepen allowing for slightly higher chances of precipitation, especially Friday afternoon (20-30%). The high PWATs will lead to areas of heavy rain with localized areas of ponding of water. Rain chances will taper off through Saturday. Temperature wise, not expecting much change in what we have seen. Any cloud cover and precipitation chances will help cool things off and lower the heat risk at times through the week. Expecting generally Moderate Heat Risk across the region, especially headed into the weekend and next week. Heat indices are expected to be between 100 and 110 degrees each day. There is a low risk of rip currents at area beaches through could increase to moderate by thins weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with breezy southeasterly winds diminishing this evening and returning mid to late Wednesday morning. An isolated shower or thunderstorm along the sea breeze may develop Wednesday afternoon and progress from east to west. && .MARINE... Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Favorable marine conditons will prevail on the waters off the lower Texas coast. Generally seas of 2-3 feet increasing to 4 feet over the weekend are expected with 5 to 7 second periods. Isolated showers or thunderstorms could lead to locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 94 79 93 / 0 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 77 96 75 94 / 0 10 10 20 MCALLEN 79 99 78 97 / 0 20 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 87 / 0 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 78 91 / 0 10 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis LONG TERM....68-McGinnis AVIATION...56-Hallman  948 FXUS64 KLCH 072314 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 614 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weakness aloft will continue to support scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. - Shower activity is expected to decrease for Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. - A weakness redevelops over the weekend along with deeper tropical like moisture helping to increase shower and thunderstorm activity. - Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.) && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure overhead, providing a light and variable flow across the forecast area. Aloft, a weak upper level trough is over the Ark-La-Tex, between weak ridging to the east and west. Area radar shows showers and storms ongoing along the coast/south of I-10, as well as another area of convection streaming southward between Shreveport and Alexandria driven by the upper trough. Coverage of storms should gradually increase through the afternoon as per usual, as diurnal heating begins to ramp up. Some storms, particularly those moving in from the north, will be capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts, with SPC having outlined a large part of the CWA north of I-190 in a Marginal Risk for damaging winds today. In addition, WPC has once again outlined most of the region (excluding lower Acadiana) in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today. This is mainly due to the fact a lot of this convection will be very slow moving, capable of producing localized heavy downpours. Showers and storms will taper off with sunset this evening, giving way to another warm and humid night. Tomorrow, the upper trough will begin to break down as ridging to the west and east expand towards each other overhead. Thereafter, weak ridging will become situated across the southern CONUS through the end of the week. This will shift us towards a more typical summertime pattern through the next few days, with slightly lower POPs each afternoon and temperatures warming into the low to mid 90s through the afternoon. By the weekend, POPs ramp up once again as upper ridging shifts towards the Rockies allowing a weakness to develop overhead once again. This weakness aloft together with the seabreeze/diurnal heating will result in more widespread afternoon activity each day from Saturday into early next week. This will keep afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, with max heat indices in the low to mid 100s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection will decrease through early evening, however storms will once again increase through mid day to afternoon Wednesday. This could produce periods of lower vis and ceilings at any terminal. Winds will be light and generally south to southwest. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection ongoing between roughly I-190 and the coast will continue to expand in coverage and intensity through the next few hours as daytime heating continues to ramp up. These storms will be capable of producing localized gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and torrential rainfall capable of reducing VIS into the 1-3SM range. This convection will be most widespread across the I-10 corridor this afternoon, but AEX may begin to see some storms a bit later in the day as well. Convection will taper off post-sunset this evening, giving way to light to calm winds and VFR conditions overnight through the first part of tomorrow.&& .MARINE... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf through the week. This will keep a light south to southwest flow in place. A weakness aloft will also allow showers and storms into mid week, and again this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 No fire weather concerns through the period. Scattered diurnal showers and storms are anticipated Today and Wednesday from a weakness aloft, with lower rain chances Thursday and Friday. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...05  941 FXUS64 KLUB 072314 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 614 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Hot with very low (less than 10 percent) rain chances across the area tonight through Wednesday night. - Continuing hot temperatures heading into the weekend. Rain chances will improve slightly Thursday and Friday, mainly for areas north and west of Lubbock. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Increasing ridging aloft has brought slightly warmer and drier conditions to the forecast area today. 12 pm West Texas Mesonet obs are showing most sites running a few degrees warmer and drier than this time yesterday. Some convection is already firing off in the northern NM mountains but with with north-northeasterly steering flow across eastern NM and West TX this activity should remain pinned to the higher terrain. And this will lead into a mostly clear and mild night with lows in the 60s and 70s. The warming trend will continue Wednesday with highs in the middle to upper 90s on the Caprock and upper 90s to about 102 in the Rolling Plains. Once again, we expect afternoon t-storms to develop across nrn NM, but this round should drift a little farther east Wednesday evening across the Panhandles where the steering flow turns westerly, while remaining very weak. So, there's a small chance this activity could brush our northern counties late Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 By Thursday, the upper ridge, while broad, will re-center westward enough such that flow aloft will start to transition to northwesterly. This will bring better chances for the daily convection in New Mexico to propagate southeastward into our area Thursday and Friday evenings. The Thursday chances will likely be limited to our northwest counties, but it looks like there will be better chance late Friday for storms to progress farther east and south across the Caprock. It will be hot both days with highs in the upper 90s to about 103. By the weekend, medium range guidance shows the upper ridge building quickly northward into Utah and Colorado. This will keep the worst of the heat off to our northwest, in fact temperatures should ease back Sat and Sun as a broad trough develops over TX and OK. Pinning rain chances down this weekend is difficult in this pattern with generally moist, easterly flow but little in the way of prominent focusing mechanisms. Still, the moist upslope flow and a weaker cap suggests that afternoon and evening t-storm chances will continue at least through Monday, with some model suggestions that an easterly wave moving across TX could keep rain chances going through at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 00Z TAFs VFR through period. Generally clear skies with a few afternoon cumulus will prevail along with light SE breezes veering SSW after 12Z/08. JW && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...13  934 FXUS64 KMEG 072314 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 614 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase through Friday. Heat indices may reach Heat Advisory criteria as early as Thursday for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. The heat will continue into the weekend. - A slow-moving upper level disturbance will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon. Storm coverage will become more isolated on Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A slow-moving upper level trough extended from central AR through the lower Mississippi River Valley at midday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus mainly along and east to the trough axis through early evening, aided by deep layer shear up to 25KT and mixed layer CAPE to 1500J/kg. HRRR depicts DCAPE less than 700J/kg, suggesting limited microburst potential. The upper level trough will weaken through Wednesday, and lift out Wednesday night, beginning a warmer and drier phase of the forecast. While an isolated storm or two can't be ruled out Thursday and Friday, the main storm track will extend from the northern Great Plains into the middle-Mississipp and Ohio River valleys. A series of shortwaves will pass through that region, dropping midlevel heights and reinforcing a stationary front across southern MO and Ohio River Valley. Midlevel heights will lower over the Midsouth by Sunday, as a northern branch trough settles in the Ozarks underneath an amplifying ridge over the northern Great Plains. Low convective inhibition, numerous surface boundaries and PWAT in excess of 2 inches suggest decent storm coverage on Sunday. Early next week, east/northeast flow aloft will prevail over the Midsouth, around the southern periphery of a 600dam 500mb height ridge centered over the central plains. GEFS and EPS mean PWAT values decrease to 1.4 to 1.6 inches, as subsidence settles in from the north. Depending on the position of the upper ridge axis, rain chances may be limited to isolated daytime thunderstorms south of I-40 by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Light and variable winds are expected overnight as a surface boundary remains stalled across the area. Any saturated surfaces may see some reduction in visibility due to fog development. MVFR visibilities are most likely in any fog development, but MKL has the highest probability of IFR visibility occurring. Slight southward propagation of the boundary is anticipated overnight, which could initiate showers and thunderstorms earlier than normal for a summertime pattern. The HRRR and NAMnest have some showers near MEM as early as 14z, but the best chances of a thunderstorm remain confined to the afternoon hours. PPROB30s were carried for thunderstorm chances. Overall, expect VFR conditions outside of any fog or thunderstorms. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the Mid-South this week. Relative humidity levels are expected to stay above 40 percent with light 20ft winds. Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast daily during peak heating. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...DNM  061 FXUS63 KTOP 072316 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 616 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry tonight and most of Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s into the 90s. - Chances for showers/storms return Wednesday evening and continue through Friday, though it won't be raining the entire time. - Near to above average temperatures hold this week before heat builds early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery along with upper air analysis showed a broad upper level ridge extending from southeast AZ, northeast across the central high Plains. A low amplitude upper level trough was rounding the upper ridge axis across the central Rockies. A more amplified upper level trough was moving onshore across BC Canada. A second upper level trough was located across the southern Hudson Bay region of Canada. The 17Z surface map showed a surface cold front extending from the western UP of Michigan, west-southwest across northern WI into central MN, then west across central SD into northeast WY. A lee surface trough was located across the central and southern high Plains. This afternoon and Tonight will be mostly clear. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday through Thursday night: The H5 ridge across the central high plains will flatten causing the mid level flow to become more zonal across the central Plains. A weak perturbation will move from the central high Plains east- southeast across KS. The combination of convergence along the surface trough in eastern CO, a surface cold front pushing south across western NE into northwest KS, and ascent ahead of the mid level perturbation will cause numerous thunderstorms to develop during the late afternoon and evening hours cross western KS/eastern CO. Several CAMs show these storms congealing into a complex of severe storms as they move east- southeast across west central KS and south central NE. RAP/HRRR CAMs forecast MLCAPE to increase to 2000-3000 J/KG by 00Z THU across west central and north central KS but the effective shear will remain below 30 KTS. If these storms maintain their intensity as they move east-southeast, then there will be a chance for damaging wind gusts across north central KS Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning. The Fv3 CAM shows a line of storms developing along a cold front across south central NE, that could move into north central KS earlier in the evening. Even though the instability axis decreases slightly as it shifts east ahead of the thunderstorm complex, the outflow boundary may undercut the complex of storms as they move east across northeast and east central KS, which may decrease the wind gusts to below severe criteria. However, if a complex of storms/QLCS keeps up with the OFB, then northeast and east central KS may see isolated severe wind gusts through the early morning hours of Thursday. Thursday, the front/outflow boundary will stall out across the far southern counties or just south of the CWA. The boundary will then extend west-northwest into western KS and eastern CO. The NAM12 and GFS forecast another complex of storms developing on the high Plains of eastern CO and moving southeast. At least the NAM12 shows the better theta-e axis extending from southeast KS, west-northwest into western KS and eastern CO. Therefore, the severe thunderstorm complex that develops in eastern CO, may move southeast and remain south of the CWA, though the southern counties may bet clipped by the severe thunderstorm complex late thursday night. HREF/NBM ensembles show a 50 to 60 percent probability of receiving 0.5" or greater of QPF across the CWA from Wednesday night through early Friday morning. Friday through Saturday: The front may remain nearly stationary along the southern counties of the CWA. The chance for showers and thunderstorms may continue as weak mid-level perturbations move east-southeat across the central and southern Plains. The H5 ridge across the Four Corners region will begin to amplify northeast across NE/SD and the chances for showers and thunderstorms will diminish through the afternoon hours of Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday: The H5 ridge will amplify across the northern and central Plains through Tuesday. The mid level winds will become easterly next week. TUTT lows may round the southern periphery of the H5 ridge axis along the Gulf Coast. The TUTT lows will provide enough ascent for thunderstorms across southeast and southern TX. The deep moist convection may block some of the richer Gulf moisture from advecting northward into the central Plains, thus dewpoints next week during the afternoon hours may remain below 70 degrees. Even with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s both Monday and Tuesday, the heat indices may only reach the upper 90s to near 103 degrees. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR TAFs persist. Chance for some shallow ground fog at KTOP early Wednesday morning, but confidence still remains low so kept out mention at this time. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Griesemer  044 FXUS66 KPDT 072315 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 415 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot, dry, and breezy conditions persist, allowing elevated fire weather concerns to continue in the Columbia Basin and Kittitas Valley. - Temperatures peak today, with areas across the basin reaching triple digits. - Chances of isolated thunderstorms (10-25%) across Central Oregon and the Eastern Mountains. && .DISCUSSION... Radar shows dry conditions, with satellite showing cumulus clouds developing across Central Oregon and the Blue Mountains. Worth noting NBM advertises 10-25% chances of thunderstorms developing across there, with HRW NSSL and HRW FV3 advertising isolated cells developing later this afternoon. Precipitable water figures are less than 1.25 inches, suggesting these will be dry in nature. Not expecting these storms to produce an abundant lightning or be severe, with gusty winds and pea size hail being the biggest expected impacts. For the rest of the day, low relative humidities prevail through much of the region with parts of the Columbia Basin reaching the upper 90s to low triple digits. Red Flag Warnings prevail through the Basin and Yakima/Kittitas Valley region through 10 PM as critical fire weather conditions continue. Temperatures will cool off tomorrow and through the week with an oncoming shortwave allowing high temperatures to drop in the upper 80s to low 90s through much of the lower elevated regions (70-90% chance). Breezy winds will continue with tight pressure gradient formation via shortwaves and on-coming low pressure systems with sustained winds of 10 to 25 mph from the west and northwest. Otherwise, not anticipating precipitation with the lack of moisture and low precipitable water values. Temperatures remain steady in the upper 80s to low 90s through the rest of the week (70-90% chance). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Based on HRRR model fields surface winds will increase over the evening, maintaining gusts as high as 30 mph at DLS and increasing with time at PDT/YKM through midnight. Ceilings and visibility are not restrictive although a brief window of HZ in the 4 to 6 mile range is possible at PDT around 12-15z due to smoke from a nearby fire. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag Warnings are issued for WA690, WA691, and OR691 from now until 10 PM today (Tuesday) due to breezy conditions and low relative humidities. Dry air with breezy winds will persist through the Columbia Basin and Kittitas Valley through at least Friday/Saturday (70-90% chance) allowing elevated fire weather concerns to prevail. Isolated areas across WA690, WA691, and OR691 could reach red flag criteria through the week. Additionally, slight chances of isolated thunderstorms (10-25%) across Central Oregon and the Eastern Mountains could develop later this afternoon. Guidance advertises low precipitable water values less than 1.25 inches, allowing the assumption that most of the storms will be dry with no wetting rains expected. Worth noting that we're not expecting these storms to produce abundant lightning and that they stay isolated in nature. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 59 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 65 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 64 93 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 60 91 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 63 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 57 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 52 86 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 59 87 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 55 89 51 89 / 10 0 0 0 DLS 61 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690-691. OR...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ691. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...71 FIRE WEATHER...95  132 FXUS63 KDVN 072318 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 618 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...00z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms Wednesday night and Thursday. - Building heat this weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet weather is expected into tonight and Wednesday with high pressure gradually shifting to our southeast into the Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will be in the 60s and given the humid conditions there could be some patchy shallow fog in favored low-lying locations. For Wednesday, expect another very warm July day with highs generally in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, with peak afternoon heat indices in the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Upper level pattern to transition to a more zonal flow, with several shortwaves moving through by the end of the work week. During the day on Wednesday, the active storm track will remain north of the area over MN and WI, as a cool front drops south into IA. While forcing along and behind the front is not overly impressive, scattered showers/storms are still forecast to develop aided by 30-40kt mid-level flow, dropping southeast closer to the northwest portions of the CWA Wednesday night/early Thursday. The question becomes will they actually reach our area before dissipating and CAM guidance is mixed. Better synoptic lift will be displaced to the north and to the west of the CWA, but if storms do reach the northern CWA they will occur in a high PW+sufficient thermodynamic environment to support a few isolated strong to severe storms. RAP forecast soundings also support this idea and still has DCAPE values around 600 J/Kg at 03z near the Hwy 20 corridor. Not all areas will see rain however and there will be many dry hours during the day Thursday. The aforementioned cool front to drop south and stall out somewhere over the southern half of the CWA Thursday afternoon while another stronger shortwave shown by several deterministic and ensemble solutions moves across Iowa. A more favorable kinematic parameter space is also being suggested with this wave leading to a chance of stong/severe storms. As a result, the SPC now has a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for areas along and south of line from Washington IA to Sterling IL. In addition, a very moist environment will be in place leading to a heavy rain threat. Beyond Friday, all deterministic and ensemble guidance show a large anomalous 598 dam 500mb ridge building into the central CONUS. Above normal temperatures are likely and with the maturing crops adding additional moisture into the atmosphere, we could see more heat headlines by early next week. The latest CPC 6-10 day outlook (encompassing the majority of next week) strongly favors above normal temperatures across the Midwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure will continue another VFR TAF cycle through Wed afternoon, with light and variable sfc winds tonight, trending to light south to southwest from late Wed morning into the afternoon. Southwest winds may reach 10 KTs Wed afternoon at CID. Back to tonight, some chance for ground and valley fog in spots. Will put a 3 hour window of 5SM MVFR fog at CID like what occurred this Tuesday morning, but they may have a south wind increasing to 5 KTs by that time limiting even MVFR fog from forming. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Gross/Uttech AVIATION...12  135 FXUS63 KIND 072318 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 718 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry through Thursday afternoon - Unsettled pattern with multiple opportunities for rain and storms late Thursday through the weekend - Heavy rainfall producing flooding and strong storms possible Thursday night into Friday && .DISCUSSION (This Evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday with dry weather. A frontal boundary will drift into the area and become nearly stationary by late Thursday. This will bring a return to an unsettled pattern for late week into the weekend with opportunities for rain and thunderstorms. Upper level ridging will return to the region by early next week with warm and dry conditions developing. This Afternoon through Thursday Night High pressure exerting its influence over the region this afternoon as the deeper moisture plume has been shifted into the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. As a result drier air has filtered south taking an edge off the oppressive airmass over the last week. 18Z temperatures were generally in the low to mid 80s with partly cloudy skies. Much of the next 36-48 hours will remain dry for central Indiana as the aforementioned high pressure remains a primary influence. Fairly extensive cu field over the forecast area this afternoon but expect that to gradually diminish to the south through late day as drier air and subsidence advect in from the north. High clouds will linger overnight into Wednesday as the remnant upper level low continues to spin over western Kentucky and Tennessee. As the feature gradually weakens and moves towards the region...the moisture plume will pull back north slightly on Wednesday afternoon and open up the potential for isolated convection to drift back into far southern portions of the forecast area. Subtle surface ridging will maintain dry conditions through the rest of the forecast area through Wednesday night. Much of Thursday will end up being quiet as well as the upper level wave departs off to the east and leaves weak ridging aloft over the region into the afternoon. An increase in moisture and instability will introduce the possibility for isolated convection but the focus will turn towards a stronger wave aloft traveling in tandem with a frontal boundary that will eventually become quasi-stationary over the forecast area by Thursday evening. Deep convergence developing along the boundary and the expansion of a low level jet into the region will support widespread strong convection developing Thursday night with the potential for training storms in the vicinity of the boundary as the low level jet becomes nearly parallel. PWATs will surge to near 2 inches over the southern half of the forecast area with flooding again becoming a concern from efficient rainfall processes. Storms may carry a risk for damaging winds as well...particularly if the convection Thursday evening can become outflow dominant. At this point...greatest impacts from storms Thursday night will be focused across the southern half of the forecast area. Highs will return to the mid and upper 80s through Thursday with the possibility for a few locations to make a run at 90 Thursday afternoon. Friday Through Saturday Night Long range guidance depicts an active pattern persisting through the end of the week with multiple disturbances tracking through the region. Deep moisture remaining in place and sufficient forcing from the multiple waves will keep rain chances elevated through Saturday. Daytime heating atop the anomalously moist environment should promote moderate to strong instability each day. Meanwhile, slight enhancement of mid-upper level flow will support up to 30 kt of effective shear. A few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the period given the ample instability and modest shear at times. The greater concern late this week will be the potential for heavy rainfall. Highly efficient warm rain processes in addition to the expected multiple rounds of convection could lead to localized flash flooding. Precipitable water values over 2.0 inches are expected which exceeds the 90th percentile for climatology this time of year. Efficient rainfall rates combined with repeated storms will be the main threat to monitor for flooding, especially if training occurs. Sunday Onward Model guidance generally depicts a low pressure system departing early Sunday morning. Broad cyclonic flow across the region and lingering low-level moisture will support low chances for showers and storms. Upper ridging should then build in aloft late Sunday into early next week providing more tranquil weather. There is some uncertainty on how far east the upper ridge builds which leads to lower confidence in the forecast. If the ridge remains further west, subtle impulse riding the northern periphery of the ridge could promote MCSs or storm clusters propagating towards central Indiana. This scenario appears unlikely early next week, but guidance suggest this could play out towards the middle of next week as the upper ridge begins to break down. Increasing heights aloft and warmer 850mb temperatures advecting towards the region will lead to warming temperatures. Look for highs to reach the upper 80s to possibly near 90F early next week. Humid conditions combined with the heat may result in heat indices approaching the mid 90s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 718 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Impacts: - Patchy fog possible predawn Wednesday Discussion: High pressure has expanded across central Indiana this afternoon with drier air expanding south. Diurnal cu field in place but should gradually diminish through late day. High clouds though will linger tonight into Wednesday as a remnant upper low continues to spin over the lower Ohio Valley. Cannot rule out brief restrictions in fog predawn Wednesday at the outlying terminals but confidence too low to mention at this time. Northeast winds through the rest of the day will become light and variable tonight and Wednesday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Ryan/Eckhoff DISCUSSION...Ryan/Melo  125 FXUS64 KFWD 072318 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 618 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms are expected again today with a few severe downburst wind gusts possible. - Another round of showers will be possible Wednesday afternoon before hot and dry conditions return through Friday. Rain could return as early as this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Recent radar trends have shown increasing storm coverage over portions of Deep East TX along an outflow boundary that is pushing to the southwest. This line may extend further westward into our eastern counties within the next few hours. At this time, only segments of this line are severe due to the lack of upper-level support. There may be some intermittent damaging wind gusts associated with this line over the next few hours along with lightning and locally heavy rainfall. In addition, CAMs are highlighting another afternoon with pop-up convection generally east of I-35. This convection is expected to be less severe than the ongoing line of storms, but expect lightning and occasional gusty winds to still accompany these pop-ups. Showers could linger through much of the night in places even without daytime heating. Temperatures overnight should fall into the low to mid 70s. A similar setup looks likely tomorrow afternoon, with heat indices of 100-103 and afternoon convection in our eastern half. There is potential for outflow boundaries from tonight's activity to linger and act as a focus for development tomorrow, but will be clearer in future packages. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The upper-level trough over much of the eastern CONUS should push to focus more on the Mississippi Valley Wednesday afternoon, with much of Texas falling back under a high. Surface flow will become more southwesterly and advect drier air into the region. The dry air and general subsidence will work to inhibit rain activity through much of the week apart from some typical summer afternoon convection. Heat indices will likely peak at 100-105 through the week with only a bit of relief from the southerly winds. The next chance of widespread rain likely won't be until an upper- level trough pushes south into the Southern Plains on Saturday. The combined rain chances, increased cloud cover, and cooler airmass behind the front could provide a noticeable cooldown into the low to mid 90s beginning on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 An outflow boundary is surging WNW across the DFW Metroplex at this hour, resulting in a brief wind shift to northerly or northwesterly before prevailing SE winds return. Thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of the DFW terminals which will have the potential to produce erratic, downburst winds up to 60 mph with any of the stronger activity. Can expect a brief reduction in visibility in the vicinity of any heavier showers and thunderstorms, however MVFR criteria is not anticipated. Convection should gradually diminish within a couple of hours after sunset. Can expect slightly lower storm coverage tomorrow mainly after 20Z, with the highest coverage expected to the north and east of DFW. Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions will remain in place through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 99 79 100 / 30 10 0 0 Waco 76 97 77 97 / 30 10 0 0 Paris 73 94 75 96 / 30 20 0 0 Denton 75 99 77 100 / 20 100 0 McKinney 74 97 77 99 / 30 20 0 0 Dallas 79 100 81 101 / 30 20 0 0 Terrell 75 97 77 99 / 30 20 0 0 Corsicana 75 99 77 100 / 30 20 0 0 Temple 73 98 75 98 / 30 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 72 98 74 99 / 20 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Crumbacher LONG TERM....Crumbacher AVIATION...Brauer  335 FXUS61 KBTV 072321 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 721 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 229 PM EDT Tuesday... Rain chances have lowered and trended quicker to end on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 229 PM EDT Tuesday... 1. Quiet weather, then showers and some thunderstorms remain likely Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the region. 2. Dry weekend and some showers early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 229 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Aside from lingering light rain in southern Vermont, possible very localized showers late this afternoon in the western foothills of the Adirondacks, and fog development in the typical locations late tonight, there is little weather to speak of through Thursday morning. Following a cool start to the day, abundant sun and light winds will result in efficient warming tomorrow. As 925 millibar temperatures warm a bit relative to today, near 21 to 23 Celsius, we should see highs in the mid to upper 80s in most locations. Tomorrow night with increasing clouds and a bit more near surface west/southwest winds bringing in more humid air, we will not be quite as cool to start the day on Thursday. The latest guidance for Thursday's expected showers appears to be in fairly good agreement in this forecast cycle, where a weak front draped west to east develops right over the region during the afternoon and slowly shifts southward. In a marginally unstable environment, driven off of increasing moisture convergence in a higher PWAT environment, cells will tend to develop on the north side of this boundary rather than south. This pattern with very dry air aloft south of the boundary suggests warm sector coverage of convection will be quite limited. At this time, there appears to be a relatively narrow threat area closer to the International Border during the afternoon and first part of the evening, shifting southward with time into the Adirondacks and central Vermont by evening. The Storm Prediction Center currently shows a general thunder risk, which seems reasonable considering the small overlap area of 1000 J/kg of CAPE and 30-40 knots of bulk shear near the front (greater shear north, greater instability south). Still think a storm or two could reach severe wind levels in this environment, but the risk of this is low. Similarly, there is no Excessive Rainfall Outlook at this time; antecedent dryness and only a small ribbon of anomalous deep moisture points to only brief heavy rainfall associated with any stronger thunderstorms in northernmost portions of New York and Vermont. Have noted that with this front sinking southward and little additional shortwave energy passing through Thursday night, precipitation will tend to become lighter or even diminish as it moves into southern Vermont. In general, the risk of showers, and especially heavy rain, for July 10th is low with these trends as cool northerly flow brings our humidity back down during the course of the day Friday. Perhaps southern portions of Vermont will have enough lingering heat and humidity to spark a thunderstorm, but trends in the data are suggesting Friday is mainly a dry day for our region; expect PoPs will trend lower. KEY MESSAGE 2: This weekend will be dry both in terms of precipitation and humidity, with no rain expected and low humidity. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. Lows overnight will be relatively comfortable, in the 50s to around 60. The heat and humidity begin to build in for the beginning of next week, but a cold front looks to come through before they can become fully established. It will be accompanied with a round of showers and potential thunderstorms, but the exact timing and extent of the precipitation remain uncertain. This is the typical July setup where the potential for strong to severe storms will be watched, but it will be conditional on factors like the exact timing of the frontal passage, the strength of the synoptic forcing and the amount of instability that will be able to develop ahead of it. However, the the front does look to be relatively strong for the time of year, with the potential for a notably cooler airmass on the backside. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...Conditions are VFR at this time. Patchy fog development is expected in climo favored spots like KMPV and KSLK, but also at KRUT since it received rain into the afternoon. Overall, highest confidence is in KMPV, and noted prevailing 3SM with a 1SM TEMPO from 07z-11z, and will monitor trends overnight. Any fog that forms lifts by 12Z and VFR conditions will persist through tomorrow. Light or terrain driven flow is expected, tonight, and will favor southwest to northwest after 12z, followed by a shift to southwest or south beyond 22z. Wind speeds will be about 4-8 knots through the period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Kutikoff AVIATION...Haynes  433 FXUS66 KSGX 072322 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 422 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to strengthen and move closer to the region through the middle of the week, bringing hotter weather and increased heat risk to inland regions. Slow cooling occurs by the weekend as the area of high pressure moves to the northeast. In its wake, monsoonal moisture moves into the region on Sunday into at least the first half of next week. This will bring increased rain chances to inland areas with greater humidity for all. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... Low clouds cleared beautifully off the coast this morning with clear skies remaining over inland areas. Time to turn up the heat this week! High temperatures will begin to feel warmer each day through Thursday as a 595 dm high over the Arizona/New Mexico border moves east and subtly strengthens. By Wednesday and Thursday, 850 mb readings go near to just over 30C over the deserts, highest over all on Thursday when the peak of the heat is expected to occur. High temperatures will range from 100-105 across the Inland Empire, locally higher in the high desert. Lower deserts will see hot temperatures near 114-117 degrees. Even the mountains will be hot, so please do not venture outdoors during the late morning or afternoon hours as temperatures soar into the upper 80s to mid 90s. High temperatures for select mountain areas on Wednesday and Thursday will be near 95 in Julian, and upper 80s in Idyllwild, Big Bear and Lake Arrowhead. Moderate to major heat risk is expected during this time for inland regions, so please take breaks, drink plenty of water and check on family and friends if you must be outside for long periods of time. Temperatures will be near average toward the coast as the marine layer keeps these regions generously cooler in the 70s and lower 80s. Low clouds will move into the coast and far western valleys each night. && .LONG TERM... By Friday, the area of high pressure slowly weakens, which will pull down temperatures by a few degrees, but still warm. The high begins to shift to the northeast as a troughing pattern develops off the West Coast. Clockwise flow around the high with the help of the trough off the coast will help funnel in subtropical moisture from the south and southwest. This will aid in an increase in humidity and a chance for showers and thunderstorms as the monsoon begins to wake up. Saturday looks to remain dry, with slightly more humid conditions. By sometime on Sunday, the area of high pressure moves closer to the Four Corners region, providing a better opportunity for increased moisture to enter the Desert Southwest. Model guidance is in good agreement on increasing PWAT values through the early part of next week. Exact details on timing and who sees rain or storms from this is still very preliminary. NBM shows chances for precipitation starting Sunday into at least the middle of next week across the mountains and deserts, locally into far inland valleys. As for temperatures, the region will still remain warm with highs well into the 90s across the Inland Empire and high desert, and 80s for the mountains and western valleys. && .AVIATION... 072320Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 700-1200 ft will redevelop and push 15-20 miles inland 06-10Z. Vis restrictions of 3- 5 SM possible near KCRQ and other higher coastal terrain. Low clouds and any vis restrictions will scatter 16-18Z. .Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Gusts near 21 kt are expected into thisevening in the outer waters, especially near San Clemente Island. Winds will decrease into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains- San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CO  499 FXUS61 KBGM 072323 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 723 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be a few degrees warmer than the previous forecast. Otherwise, no significant change with the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of fog are expected in valley locations tonight and Wednesday morning before a couple days of warmer temperatures and more humid air across all of central NY and northeast PA. 2) Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the region Thursday and Friday before quiet weather and high pressure build back in for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Departing low pressure off the New England coast that brought widespread rainfall of 1 to 4 inches or more to the region will continue to move to the east/northeast tonight. A weak surface high on the western edge of the low is expected to form over the interior Northeast tonight and work in combination with the overall wet antecedent surface conditions to produce areas of fog, especially in the valley locations. Drier air will continue to filter in from the north tonight and cause cloud cover to dissipate. Mostly clear skies and light winds combined with the near surface moisture should be sufficient for fog development. On Wednesday, the nearly stationary surface high across the region will combine with building heights aloft to produce large scale suppression and a deep layer of dry air to keep weather conditions quiet and dry. A robust amount of sun on Wednesday along with a high July sun angle should allow temperatures to climb into the 80s for much of the region of central NY and ne PA. Surface dew points in the low to mid 60s will make it feel a couple degrees warmer than the air temperature. A weak short wave may traverse the region quickly Wed night which could limit the extent of fog, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty (only 15 to 20% chance of showers) in this wave and the chances for rain. Temperatures in the morning on Thursday will start out very mild in the mid to upper 60s, along with nearly saturated conditions and high dew points in the 60s as well. As the boundary layer mixes through the day, the morning fog and low clouds will dissipate and allow conditions to be favorable for further heating. With 850mb temperatures +16 to +18 degC and residual large scale suppression ahead of the incoming shortwave, surface temperatures should be able to climb well into the 80s and potentially a few lower 90s are not out of the question. Heat indices 90-95 are possible, especially in the lake plain south of Lake Ontario and the interior valley locations. KEY MESSAGE 2... As temperatures and humidity increase on Thursday, the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases as well. A southern wave will slide east across portions of the northern Mid Atlantic region in the early afternoon and trigger a few showers and storms from the southern tier of NY south into northeast PA. A northern wave will move slowly in from the northwest during the day and produce a broad area of convection that will move NW to SE through the region into the evening and overnight hours. Thunderstorm parameters are not overly indicative of severe weather on Thursday. ML CAPE values around 800-1000 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates by the early afternoon will create favorable conditions, however there does appear to be several capping inversions that need to be overcome to be able to tap into this energy. The shear on Thursday is also unfavorable for sustained and mature convection. The early afternoon convection in ne PA should be on the weaker side, and there is likely more concern for strong to a few severe storms with the incomingfront from the northwest where wrn/central NY will have more time to overcome the inversions and will also be able to tap into slightly more deep layer shear. The heat is dampened a bit on Friday but temperatures should still be able to climb into the 80s for much of the region. Dew points remain in the 60s and lower 70s and the short wave may stall out across the area to allow convection to develop Friday afternoon in the vicinity of this boundary. We will need to monitor the threat for stronger storms on Friday and Fri night along this boundary. Deep layer shear will be enhanced with the combination of a modest jet streak aloft and an embedded short wave. During Friday night the long wave trough rotates through and brings in a more mild air mass with temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s for the weekend and much lower humidity. Rain chances will also be significantly reduced this weekend under a fairly dry pattern. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Any ceilings breaking up this evening or lifting to VFR early. Conditions continue to look favorable for fog formation overnight with IFR to LIFR fog possible at KITH,KBGM, KRME and KELM. VFR on Wednesday after any fog burns off. Outlook: Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM. Friday into Saturday...Cold front could move in and stall, leading to persistent showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT AVIATION...MWG  535 FXUS62 KMLB 072325 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2206 - Scattered showers and lightning storms continue this afternoon and evening, becoming locally numerous in coverage along the sea breeze collision. A few strong storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, localized wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and heavy rainfall. - Drier air begins to build mid to late week, reducing rain chances Wednesday and especially on Thursday. - A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, please visit heat.gov. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2206 Current-Wednesday... Highest afternoon/evening rain chances continue across the eastern peninsula with late day sea breeze/boundary collisions. ISOLD-SCT lightning storms will develop initially along the inland moving sea breezes (east/west), with coverage and intensity (SCT-NMRS/40-60% today & 20-40% Wed) increasing late day/early evening from numerous boundary collisions. Storm steering will, again, be light out of the west bringing some storms back to the coast, though movement will be slow/erratic at times surrounding stronger collisions. A few storms locally strong with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-55 mph locally, and heavy downpours leading to minor/nuisance flooding which will be handled with Flood Advisories as necessary. Activity will diminish thru mid evening, though light debris rainfall could linger a bit. Skies gradually thinning thru the night. Max temps in the L-M90s with peak heat indices 104-107F ahead of sea breeze/precip. On Wed, we could see some U90s north of I-4. We may flirt with 108F+ over a large portion of the area on Wed and later shifts will monitor in the event a Heat Advisory is necessary. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Min temps consistent and in the 70s with conditions remaining very humid. Thu-Mon...Weak high pressure ridging continues across the central to north/central FL peninsula into the weekend. Drier air forecast Thu/Fri with arrival of Saharan Dust leading to a period of below normal rain chances. Mostly dry on Thu (5-20% - highest moisture north of I-4) and 10-50% - highest south/Okeechobee for Fri. Latest model guidance has gone higher with PoPs this weekend (20-60%), highest south of Orlando on Sat & highest north of I-4 on Sun. PoPs 30-60% on Mon with highest again north of I-4. The main weather story for this period will center around the building heat across the area. Mid-level ridging across the region will become stronger as subsidence increases and H500 temps range between -5.5C to -7.0C. This will lead to a period of above normal temperatures, especially near and north of I-4. Expect highs in the L-M90s near the coast and M-U90s into the interior - highest values near/north of I-4. A building (Widespread Major to locally Extreme) HeatRisk is expected to affect those without adequate cooling and hydration. Trends will be monitored for any potential Heat Advisories as peak heat index values may near or exceed the 108F threshold across portions of the area by late week. A mid to upper level trough digs into the southeast U.S. early next week, and temperatures gradually fall a couple/few degrees by Mon. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2206 Thru Sat...Weak high pressure ridging will lift slowly from south- central FL toward the central & north-central peninsula thru late week. This will produce generally favorable winds/seas. Expect one more day ofshowers and lightning storms potentially affecting the intracoastal and near shore waters in the late afternoon & evening, then a period of drier conditions mid to late week, though cannot rule out ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection during this time. Light SW/S flow will transition onshore each afternoon with sea breeze formation and push inland. Late aftn/evening winds may increase to 14-17 kts over the open Atlc (generally north of the Cape), but otherwise speeds AOB 15 kts. Winds and seas locally higher invof convection. Seas 1-2 ft occasionally increase to 3 ft far offshore early this week, and by Thursday seas build to more widely range 2-3 ft across the local waters (perhaps 4 ft briefly well offshore north of Cape). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Lingering VCSH/VCTS near MCO, SFB, and TIX will diminish over the next couple of hours, with VFR conditions forecast to prevail overnight along with mostly dry weather. Light and variable winds are forecast at all the terminals tonight. Winds pick up out of the SE after 16Z on Wednesday along the coast as the ECSB develops and moves inland. Drier air will limit rain and storm chances tomorrow, with only a mention of VCSH at MCO, ISM, and SFB after 20Z. S to SE winds around 10 knots at all terminals, weakening to around 5 knots into Wednesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 93 77 94 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 77 95 78 97 / 30 30 20 10 MLB 77 92 78 92 / 10 20 10 0 VRB 76 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 0 LEE 78 94 79 95 / 20 20 20 20 SFB 77 95 78 97 / 30 30 20 20 ORL 77 94 79 96 / 30 30 20 20 FPR 75 91 76 92 / 10 20 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Tollefsen  555 FXUS64 KAMA 072325 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Hot temperatures continue to hold for the Panhandles with potential to see triple-digit temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to return starting Wednesday with activity possible clear into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Present model agreement continues to see the upper-level ridge and associate high pressure hold over the Panhandles this afternoon and evening. With this more stagnate pattern in place, present CAMs have seen any activity developing off the Southern Front Range struggle to actually move off the mountains and into the Panhandles. Still a few of the early morning CAMs runs have tried to force a shower or two across our west this evening. However, given the present dry air being seen across our south and the very weak storm motion today, those chances are more focused in our far northwest. Moving into Wednesday, does see the beginning of a pattern shift as models see an upper-level trough try to force it way east out of the Alaska Region. In doing this the trough will force the upper-level ridge and its associated high pressure to retreat southwest out the Panhandles. This retreat will then open us up to better potential for showers and thunderstorms that evening as the first or many short-waves push across. In terms of severe potential for the today, most model soundings have see us struggle in terms of instability with any CAPE values struggling to reach 1000 J/kg. However, those same models are showing decent inverted V style soundings with DCAPE upwards 1700 J/kg. With this signal present, it would possible to see thunderstorms capable of producing outflow wind gusts upwards of 70 mph, especially in the north where both chances and ingredients are at their best. Meanwhile in our south, present models look to favor drier and hotter conditions holding with the morning and early afternoon seeing southwesterly flow down in the lower levels. With southwesterly flow present, potential will be there for temperature to be slightly warmer than models are calling for which could result much of the south reaching or nearing the triple digit mark that afternoon. In some of our hotter locations, like the Palo Duro Canyon, these hotter temperature can be amplified to the point that a heat related product may be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 As we progress towards the end of the week, model do see the retreat of the high holding which will allow for the Panhandles to fall back into a more northwesterly to zonal upper-level flow pattern. This patter is more ideal in opening us up to more short- wave activity expected to push through clear into the weekend. As it stands, present model runs keep chances of showers and thunderstorms present each day with best chances mostly holding in our north. Thursday and Friday in particular, continues to trend as best chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms with models depicting more potent short-waves pushing across the Central Great Plains that afternoon. Of course the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could be present each day. However, current models runs for Thursday are more focused on winds being the main impact given the high amounts of DCAPE present. Regardless, still lingering high pressure to our southwest will look to keep temperature hot with most locations looking to stay in the mid to upper 90s for the rest of the week. However in some of our locations like the Palo Duro Canyon and Canadian River Valley, the terrain influence could see temperatures rise to much more. This potential will only look to increase as we near Sunday with many of the models seeing the ridge and its upper-level high return and push further north into the Great Plains for most of next week. Should this trend hold, then the Panhandles could be in for very hot and dry week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be out of the south-southeast at 10-20 kts with slightly higher gusts at times. There could be marginal LLWS at times overnight, but confidence is too low to include mentions at this time. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...38  501 FXUS64 KEPZ 072323 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 523 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 521 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Isolated thunderstorms this evening, mainly over the Gila and lowlands adjacent to the Arizona Border. - Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-102; except highs Thursday/Friday 101-106. - Increase in thunderstorm coverage by Sunday and Monday with somewhat cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The ever-so-persistent high pressure will still be overhead the northwest part of NM today but will begin meandering westward over SW AZ and SoCal tomorrow. Moisture stays trapped under the high each day through Saturday allowing for daily thunderstorm chances. Scattered mountain storms will initiate over the higher terrain, spreading outflows to the lowlands which may trigger off some isolated storms. PWs will range from 1" to around 1.2" with the better moisture being seen Friday and Saturday. Weak steering flow and insufficient shear with this high pressure will lead to slow storm motions which will add to the flooding threat with storms. By Friday and into Saturday the high looks to shift north over Utah and Colorado. An inverted trough looks to cross the Gulf and may head up to the Borderland by the end of the weekend and early next week which could bring more moisture (PWs of 1.2" - 1.3") and areawide rain chances. High temperatures stay near seasonal average today and tomorrow but hotter temperatures expected Thursday through Saturday, but Friday looks the hottest right now. Temperatures in El Paso and the lower valley Thursday and Friday will be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria (highs of 105F+). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected with FEW-SCT250 along with occasional FEW070-120. Winds will generally be from the south or southeast with speeds AOB 10 knots along with the occasional gust to 20 knots. Storm outflows could cause shifts at any site this evening, especially DMN, and TAFs will amended as needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Near critical to critical min RHs persists in the lowlands today through Saturday with values generally 11-20%. Area mountain min RHs will generally be 20-35%. 20 foot winds each afternoon will stay light at 5-10 mph with calm winds overnight. Daily thunderstorm chances exists for the mountains each day through Saturday with isolated storms in the lowlands. Sunday and early next week looks potentially more active with more areawide rain chances with a tropical system potentially heading over the area at this time. This will increase min RHs above critical thresholds Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be near seasonal today and tomorrow but even hotter temperatures expected Thursday through Saturday with Friday being the hottest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 99 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 94 68 96 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 67 97 70 101 / 0 0 10 0 Alamogordo 68 97 73 100 / 0 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 51 74 54 77 / 0 20 10 40 Truth or Consequences 69 98 71 101 / 0 20 20 10 Silver City 64 92 65 94 / 10 40 20 50 Deming 66 100 68 103 / 0 10 20 10 Lordsburg 69 99 70 100 / 10 20 20 10 West El Paso Metro 74 99 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 66 97 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 71 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 65 92 69 94/ 0 0 0 10 Fabens 71 100 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 70 97 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 98 78 102 / 0 0 10 10 Jornada Range 68 98 72 101 / 0 10 10 0 Hatch 69 101 71 104 / 0 10 10 0 Columbus 72 101 74 104 / 0 10 10 0 Orogrande 67 96 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 86 59 88 / 0 20 10 60 Mescalero 54 86 57 88 / 0 20 20 30 Timberon 52 82 55 85 / 0 10 0 30 Winston 59 89 60 92 / 10 50 20 30 Hillsboro 66 95 69 98 / 10 30 20 30 Spaceport 65 97 68 100 / 0 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 57 92 59 95 / 10 50 20 50 Hurley 63 95 65 97 / 10 30 20 40 Cliff 64 98 65 100 / 10 30 30 40 Mule Creek 62 94 63 97 / 20 30 30 30 Faywood 64 93 66 96 / 10 20 20 40 Animas 69 99 71 101 / 20 20 20 0 Hachita 67 98 69 100 / 0 10 20 10 Antelope Wells 69 99 71 100 / 0 10 20 20 Cloverdale 65 93 66 94 / 10 20 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown  534 FXUS64 KHGX 072325 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot conditions will continue through the forecast period. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. - Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Stronger cells will be capable of producing some 25-45 mph wind gusts. - A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive late in the week and weekend. Warm, muggy conditions persist with daily chances of rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are popping up early this afternoon, mainly over the coastal counties. This activity is driven primarily by daytime heating and mesoscale seabreeze boundaries. Further north, weak mid-level troughiness sitting over the ArkLaTex region will also contribute to some forcing this afternoon. Combined with PW values in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range, scattered activity cannot be ruled out, primarily north of I-10, through this evening. With DCAPE values roughly between 1,000-1,220 J/kg, dry air aloft could easily accelerate downdrafts, resulting in localized strong wind gusts with the strongest storms. Locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning will also be a risk. Expect activity to taper off between 7-9pm with the loss of daytime heating. From Wednesday through the end of the workweek, a drying trend is expected as a mid-level ridge over the Rockies gradually strengthens, suppressing overall moisture availability. However, persistent southerly surface flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture inland. Paired with daytime heating and seabreeze interactions, expect the typical pattern of isolated morning showers along the coast, transitioning into isolated storms further inland by afternoon. Model guidance points to Friday as having the best overall rain chances during this mid-week stretch. Heading into Saturday and the rest of the forecast period, southeast Texas will be positioned in a relative weakness between two ridges. Despite a bit of broad mid-level subsidence, a surge of moisture will filter into the region, leading to rain and storm chances (30 to 60 %) over the weekend. Mid to upper level pattern will keep the region under the influence of persistent troughiness, ahead of an approaching backdoor cool front moving south from the northeast. Therefore, daily chances of showers and storms will continue through the upcoming week. Temperature-wise, conditions will remain seasonably hot and typical for July standards. Highs mainly in the mid 90s, with peak heat indices ranging from 100-107F. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the area, especially north of I-10, through the early/mid evening hours. Maintained TEMPO groups at KUTS and KCXO through 01-02Z/8-9 PM CDT for the best potential of thunderstorms. By or just before 03Z/10 PM, precipitation should all be dissipated and VFR should prevail at all TAF sites. Patchy, light fog is anticipated to develop again near sunrise Wednesday, highest probabilities along and west of I-45. Once whatever fog that develops erodes and ceilings lift, VFR will prevail through much of the day. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop again along the seabreeze. Any heavy/strong shower or storm that moves over any terminals will cause visibilities to drop to IFR/MVFR levels. Added PROB30 groups for TSRA at most sites, generally between 18-00Z Thursday, though exact coverage and probabilities are still unknown at this time. Winds stay mostly light through the period, with light southwest surface winds in the morning veering more out of the south in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas (generally 1-3 ft) will prevail through most of the period as surface high remains strong across the eastern Gulf. A daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and storms is anticipated, with the best chances Friday - Saturday and the upcoming week. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 96 77 96 / 20 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 79 97 79 96 / 30 20 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 84 90 / 10 20 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Mejia MARINE...JM  541 FXUS65 KCYS 072325 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 525 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon through Thursday with heavy rainfall, hail, and strong gusty winds possible. - A ridge builds late in the long term, drying the area out and heating things up. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 151 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Current regional observations are already a little toasty along and east of I-25 with temperatures in the low to mid 90s, except under the mid and high level cloud cover. A few spots near Chadron and Scottsbluff could reach 100 before storms move in this afternoon. The south to southeast winds are advecting in 40 to 50 degree dewpoints over the Nebraksa Panhandle areas. Aloft we have decent near saturated mid layers and a shortwave which will help kick off some elevated and high based convection. Wind shear is lacking in todays environment, much like it was yesterday. The bulk wind shear values are in the 20-30 knot ranges which will favor pulse type storms with short lifespans. Some gusty winds can be anticipated with DCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range combined with dry adiabatic sub cloud layer lapse rates. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a marginal to slight probabilities over much of the area for severe hail and winds. The environment does favor marginally severe hail and winds to 60 mph with the most impressive thunderstorms. Towards the northern CWA counties and in the upper Nebraska Panhandle areas there may be better instability and DCAPE values on the higher end to support winds to +70 mph. At the time of writing this discussion we have convective initiation near Cheyenne which should become more widespread with a favored propagation along the east and northern flanks. More widespread development is anticipated in the next few hours area wide moving to the northeast. Towards the evening marginally severe hail looks possible for mainly the Panhandle area. By midnight most areas should be free of storms, except for a possible complex moving through Carbon County late in the night. Briefly mention that some fire zones in Carbon and Albany County will have elevated fire conditions this afternoon. Patchy areas of red flag conditions are possible when RH values dip into the teens and winds increase. Additionally, dry thunderstorms are possible. Condition coverage is not great enough to issue a red flag product. Wednesday is similar to today, but shear and upper level flow appears better given another shortwave moves in from the west. This shortwave is well timed with the peak afternoon heating and should promote widespread thunderstorms. Surface winds are rather weak and will keep low level shear on the low side. Hodographs are straight and most of the instability above the freezing level will favor large hail development. Surface spreads will be less than the last few days which will help more precipitation reach the surface. Shear to the south of the shortwave feature are anticipated to be in the 40-50 knot ranges which is adequate for supercells in the northern Panhandle areas. With mostly speed shear these storms will be predisposed to grow upscale into line segments. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 151 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thursday...As has been typical in the past week, a neutrally tilted shortwave trough, or perturbation aloft, will develop along the Wyoming and Nebraska state line, with an associated low level convergence axis along the I-25 corridor, sparking scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening east of I-25, with lesser coverage further west. Temperatures will be moderated by cloud and convective precipitation coverage, with 700 mb temperatures yielding maximum temperatures in the 80s. Friday...The atmosphere dries out considerably with shortwave ridging aloft bulging over eastern Wyoming, and with 700 mb temperatures from 12 to 15 Celsius, producing decent convective inhibition, CIN, thunderstorms are quite unlikely. A warming trend develops with less cloud and convective coverage. Saturday through Tuesday...Ridging aloft dominates our region, with quite dry air at low and mid levels, accompanied by 700 mb temperatures from 15 to 20 Celsius, thus chances for late day showers and thunderstorms will be minimal at best, and dry weather will prevail. The 700 mb temperatures will yield maximum temperatures in the 90 to 105 degree range. A weak perturbation and a slight increase in mid level moisture may spark isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 525 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are rolling through the CWA currently, with some uncertainty if a terminal may get impacted, kept the PROB30s that were issued in the prior TAF issuance. Most of the activity should be winding down by 03Z this evening with possible obscurations at KAIA and KCDR. Have a TEMPO group to account for this. Otherwise, winds will become light to generally less than 10 knots across all the sites this evening. There will be an uptick in winds Wednesday morning with gusts to around 20 knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RV LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RZ  564 FXUS65 KGJT 072325 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 525 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue today and tomorrow, favoring the terrain. - Chances for wetting rains remain low. Gusty outflow winds and dry lightning pose threats for new/existing wildfires. - Localized critical fire weather conditions emerge Thursday for southeast UT and southwest CO. - Afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal are forecast this weekend, with triple digits possible in most desert valley areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY: Elevated moisture in the area is bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to eastern Utah and western Colorado. This activity has been favoring the higher terrain, but non- zero chances of precipitation exist across most of the CWA through the evening today. Precipitable water (PW) anomalies from this moisture advection will peak today, reaching only around 150% of normal. This morning's 18Z sounding at GJT reported 0.77in of PW, which falls around the 75th percentile when looking at GJT's PW climatology for today. This is an increase from yesterday's 18Z sounding, which reported 0.52in of PW. Considering the still very dry surface conditions, and the only marginally above normal midlevel moisture, a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated today. Despite this, many of today's showers and storms have already produced measurable precipitation. Most observations are only a few hundredths of an inch, but a handful of observations are over a tenth of an inch. Regardless, dry thunderstorms and the associated fire starts risk remains a concern. LINGERING MOISTURE TOMORROW: Tomorrow drier air begins to move back into the region, but lingering moisture will allow for showers and storms over the higher terrain. With the return of drier air, isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible. A slight uptick in afternoon wind gusts will lead to increased coverage of localized fire weather conditions, primarily in the Four Corners region. However, the gusts in these localized areas are forecast to be marginal. INCREASING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS: Coverage of critical fire weather conditions may increase on Thursday as marginal wind gusts become more widespread in the Four Corners region and southern high terrain. These marginal winds keep confidence too low to issue any fire weather products with this forecast package, so stay tuned to see how the wind gust forecast might evolve in future updates. Confidence in dry and hot conditions this weekend continues to increase. High pressure overhead will keep a dry airmass in place, resulting in widespread single digit minimum relative humidity values. Triple digit temperatures are forecast across the desert valley areas of eastern Utah and western Colorado beginning Friday, with the hottest temperatures occurring on Saturday and Sunday. The current weekend forecast for the Grand Valley includes potential for high temperatures to reach 105 degrees. So, be sure to monitor how the forecast evolves and remain weather aware as temperatures climb this week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 522 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Gusty winds are on the decline this evening, though ongoing thunderstorms may still drop strong outflows over some terminals, mostly over the high terrain. Thunderstorm potential diminishes over the next couple hours though, leaving few to scattered cloud cover with little impacts. VFR conditions should prevail for most locations, but look for brief periods of MVFR conditions due to reduced vis should any lingering strong storms pass over a terminal. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow with the highest chance of precipitation over HDN. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1013 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Today region-wide moisture is hitting its peak for most locations across the area. Despite the moisture, relative humidity values are still falling below 20% in some areas. Greater surface relative humidity values in the higher terrain, especially across the highest elevations of the San Juan Mountains, should allow for more rain to reach ground today. Observed rainfall has generally be less than a tenth of an inch, but a some storms have been able to produce wetting rains. A few storms could be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall through the evening which, if they track of an active fire or burn scar, could prompt debris flow concerns. The probability of this remains low, but non-negligible. Despite this, dry thunderstorms still remain a concern through the evening today, bringing about a risk of new lightning ignitions and gusty outflow winds which could impact new and existing wildfires. Isolated dry thunderstorm concerns continue tomorrow and possibly into Thursday before storm potential almost entirely diminishes. As hotter and drier conditions settle in Friday and into the weekend, fire conditions could become exacerbated. High confidence in relatively mild winds should keep critical fire weather coverage on the more isolated end, generally favoring the Four Corners region. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GF AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...TGJT  607 FXUS62 KGSP 072326 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 726 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms each afternoon through Friday, primarily across western North Carolina. Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases Saturday across the whole forecast area and remains elevated into early next week. Isolated severe storms may produce damaging winds this afternoon and again Thursday. 2. Generally hot and humid conditions through Saturday before cooler and less humid conditions return Sunday into early next week. Those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air- conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Scattered diurnal thunderstorms each afternoon through Friday, primarily across western North Carolina. Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases Saturday across the whole forecast area and remains elevated into early next week. Isolated severe storms may produce damaging winds this afternoon and again Thursday. While a typical summertime Bermuda High pattern continues over the Southeast at large, a weak, almost stationary frontal zone is seen north of the upper ridge near the NC/VA border. This front extends between an upper low in the mid-Mississippi Valley and low pressure off the Jersey Shore. Moisture pooling in proximity to the frontal boundary should maintain elevated dewpoints this afternoon and marginally higher convective potential particularly in our NC zones. The MS Valley low will drift slowly northeastward tonight into Wednesday, beginning to open into a more progressive shortwave, while the East Coast low moves farther out into the Atlantic. The frontal zone shifts slightly farther north in response. Dewpoints look to mix out slightly lower Wed afternoon, and coverage is forecast to be slightly lesser as well. Coverage may however tick back upward over the mountains Thursday afternoon as the weakening shortwave drifts overhead. Steering flow through Thursday is west-southwesterly; ridgetop convergence as usual will be a driver for convective initiation with propagation mainly toward the northeast as a result. Hence, through Thursday, convective coverage looks to remain very sparse over the lower Piedmont--with PoPs generally below 15 percent--especially over the more southern GA/SC zones. Weak shear suggests mainly pulse-storm threats today and Wednesday, and thus the possibility of isolated damaging microbursts. Deep-layer shear increases with the arrival of the shortwave Thursday, so storms that day may have slightly more potential to organize along cold pools though not necessarily resulting in higher severe risk. A shortwave is shown to pass north of the CWA Friday, possibly with a weak trailing convergence zone which could maintain some nondiurnal convective activity near the TN border Friday night. Heights concurrently rise over the central CONUS, with a subsequent shortwave moving past the developing ridge and bringing a better defined cold front south through the CWA, such that a more active northwest-flow regime sets up Saturday through Monday. The ingredients don't quite come together to necessarily put us in an MCS track, but we may at least have the exposure to disturbances originating upstream which could promote convective development locally. As of now the most active day appears to be Sunday when most locations in the CWA receive a 60-70% PoP. Key message 2: Generally hot and humid conditions through Saturday before cooler and less humid conditions return Sunday into early next week. Those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air- conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. Seasonably hot and humid conditions will continue through Saturday. Temperatures are hovering a little above normal today, with dewpoints remaining elevated in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary just north of the area. As that boundary shifts northward for Thursday, dewpoints potentially will trend a little lower, though temperatures trend a degree or two higher; these offset such that heat index tops out at similar levels, generally in the upper 90s to low 100s, thus a tad below advisory criteria. Temperatures trend cooler by Sunday as heights fall over the Eastern Seaboard in the wake of weak shortwaves, bringing a weak cold front southward through the area. The cooler airmass, combined with increased cloud cover near the front, actually bring temperatures below normal Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening, mainly along the I-85 corridor and across the mountains near the Tennessee border. Ongoing TSRA at KGSP will continue pushing east and will clear the airfield shortly while additional TSRA moves into the CLT area. Temporary restrictions are likely with any convection. Showers and storms will dissipate through the evening with an overall quiet night expected. Mountain valley fog will once again be likely with potential impacts at KAVL along with the potential for another round of fog at KHKY. Any fog will quickly mix out after sunrise with a return to VFR through the rest of the morning. Another batch of isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms is possible, mainly across North Carolina tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light and variable overnight with southwest winds during the day tomorrow. A few low-end gusts will be possible across the Upstate. Outlook: The North Carolina terminals will have the best potential to see TSRA chances return each afternoon and evening Wednesday through Friday. More widespread SHRA/TSRA expected across all terminals Saturday to Monday. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in locations that see appreciable rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ JCW/TW  607 FXUS62 KGSP 072326 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 726 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms each afternoon through Friday, primarily across western North Carolina. Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases Saturday across the whole forecast area and remains elevated into early next week. Isolated severe storms may produce damaging winds this afternoon and again Thursday. 2. Generally hot and humid conditions through Saturday before cooler and less humid conditions return Sunday into early next week. Those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air- conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Scattered diurnal thunderstorms each afternoon through Friday, primarily across western North Carolina. Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases Saturday across the whole forecast area and remains elevated into early next week. Isolated severe storms may produce damaging winds this afternoon and again Thursday. While a typical summertime Bermuda High pattern continues over the Southeast at large, a weak, almost stationary frontal zone is seen north of the upper ridge near the NC/VA border. This front extends between an upper low in the mid-Mississippi Valley and low pressure off the Jersey Shore. Moisture pooling in proximity to the frontal boundary should maintain elevated dewpoints this afternoon and marginally higher convective potential particularly in our NC zones. The MS Valley low will drift slowly northeastward tonight into Wednesday, beginning to open into a more progressive shortwave, while the East Coast low moves farther out into the Atlantic. The frontal zone shifts slightly farther north in response. Dewpoints look to mix out slightly lower Wed afternoon, and coverage is forecast to be slightly lesser as well. Coverage may however tick back upward over the mountains Thursday afternoon as the weakening shortwave drifts overhead. Steering flow through Thursday is west-southwesterly; ridgetop convergence as usual will be a driver for convective initiation with propagation mainly toward the northeast as a result. Hence, through Thursday, convective coverage looks to remain very sparse over the lower Piedmont--with PoPs generally below 15 percent--especially over the more southern GA/SC zones. Weak shear suggests mainly pulse-storm threats today and Wednesday, and thus the possibility of isolated damaging microbursts. Deep-layer shear increases with the arrival of the shortwave Thursday, so storms that day may have slightly more potential to organize along cold pools though not necessarily resulting in higher severe risk. A shortwave is shown to pass north of the CWA Friday, possibly with a weak trailing convergence zone which could maintain some nondiurnal convective activity near the TN border Friday night. Heights concurrently rise over the central CONUS, with a subsequent shortwave moving past the developing ridge and bringing a better defined cold front south through the CWA, such that a more active northwest-flow regime sets up Saturday through Monday. The ingredients don't quite come together to necessarily put us in an MCS track, but we may at least have the exposure to disturbances originating upstream which could promote convective development locally. As of now the most active day appears to be Sunday when most locations in the CWA receive a 60-70% PoP. Key message 2: Generally hot and humid conditions through Saturday before cooler and less humid conditions return Sunday into early next week. Those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air- conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. Seasonably hot and humid conditions will continue through Saturday. Temperatures are hovering a little above normal today, with dewpoints remaining elevated in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary just north of the area. As that boundary shifts northward for Thursday, dewpoints potentially will trend a little lower, though temperatures trend a degree or two higher; these offset such that heat index tops out at similar levels, generally in the upper 90s to low 100s, thus a tad below advisory criteria. Temperatures trend cooler by Sunday as heights fall over the Eastern Seaboard in the wake of weak shortwaves, bringing a weak cold front southward through the area. The cooler airmass, combined with increased cloud cover near the front, actually bring temperatures below normal Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening, mainly along the I-85 corridor and across the mountains near the Tennessee border. Ongoing TSRA at KGSP will continue pushing east and will clear the airfield shortly while additional TSRA moves into the CLT area. Temporary restrictions are likely with any convection. Showers and storms will dissipate through the evening with an overall quiet night expected. Mountain valley fog will once again be likely with potential impacts at KAVL along with the potential for another round of fog at KHKY. Any fog will quickly mix out after sunrise with a return to VFR through the rest of the morning. Another batch of isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms is possible, mainly across North Carolina tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light and variable overnight with southwest winds during the day tomorrow. A few low-end gusts will be possible across the Upstate. Outlook: The North Carolina terminals will have the best potential to see TSRA chances return each afternoon and evening Wednesday through Friday. More widespread SHRA/TSRA expected across all terminals Saturday to Monday. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in locations that see appreciable rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ JCW/TW  730 FXUS63 KGID 072329 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 629 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot Wednesday, thunderstorms are likely by evening (50-80% chance). Some of these storms may be severe with damaging wind and large hail. - Thursday will be noticably cooler (mainly 80s) with another chance for evening/overnight thunderstorms favoring areas south of I-80 (marginal risk of severe thunderstorms) - Overall drier conditions by this weekend into next week and heating back up into the 90s by Sunday and at least several days thereafter. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Summer Heat... Hot weather with highs in the 90s will persist into Wednesday afternoon. A cold front sinking south Wednesday evening will bring thunderstorms to the area (Wednesday evening/night) and cooler weather for Thursday through Saturday (highs mainly in the 80s). A strong and unusually anomalous upper level ridge (600 decameters at 500 mb) is projected to initially build over the Rocky Mountains this weekend and slide east into the plains early next week. This will result in hot and dry conditions even by July standards. Our projected highs early next week in the lower to mid 90s may be too cool and would not be surprised to see upper 90s and even some 100 degree temperatures if this upper ridge patter fully materializes. Wednesday and Thursday Severe Thunderstorm Threat... We have two remaining decent chances to get moisture before the upper ridge builds in and precipitation is likely to shut off for awhile. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Nebraska counties will be Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Kansas counties will be Thursday night. Unfortunately this rain may come in the form of severe weather for some areas with the main threat being the wind gusts, but also at least a marginal hail threat as well. There are currently two main areas to watch Wednesday afternoon/evening. The first area will be along the cold front with afternoon heating mainly across our northern and northeastern areas where storms may initially develop, will probably be more isolated, but will be slower moving and capable of dumping heavier 1" plus rainfall amounts. There is lower confidence in this initial thunderstorm development. However, there is higher confidence that a more widespread line of thunderstorms will develop west of our forecast area later Wednesday evening associated with the upper level shortwave and then track east across much of our area Wednesday night. This later precipitation will bring mainly a severe wind threat to our area with some of these thunderstorms, rain amounts generally less than 1" but more widespread. The Thursday night rain chances are pretty high in the NBM (50-70%), but storms may end up being further south. Best chances for storms Thursday night will be south of I-80 and even higher across north central Kansas. The severe threat Thursday night should be more marginal than on Wednesday evening. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions expected through TAF period. SCT-BKN high level clouds are possible overnight becoming FEW-SCT during the day. Southerly winds decrease overnight becoming light during the day on Wednesday and variable during the afternoon as winds switch from southerly to northerly behind a front. Scattered thunderstorms are possible just past the TAF period, so a PROB30 group was kept out of the TAF. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Davis  921 FXUS63 KLOT 072331 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 631 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonably warm weather through Wednesday, then shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday. - A corridor of heavy rainfall may occur somewhere in the region Thursday-Friday, though confidence in local impacts remains low. - Mainly dry, warmer weather expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 12Z upper air analysis depicts a short-wave upper level ridge axis across northern IL, between a lingering mid-level trough over the lower Missouri/Ohio valleys to the south of more zonal westerly flow across the northern tier of the CONUS. A low- amplitude short wave within this zonal flow was evident in GOES vapor imagery across the upper Midwest, but is weakening/shearing as it encounters the aforementioned ridge. At the surface, weak high pressure was centered over our northwestern cwa early this afternoon, with plenty of sunshine allowing seasonable temperatures (low-80s warming toward the mid-80s), relatively modest humidity levels and light/variable winds. Farther to the south, into central IL, surface dew points remain in the mid-upper 60s making for somewhat more muggy conditions as well as contributing to a developing diurnal cumulus field. Despite the cu field, RAP forecast soundings depict an inversion ~800 mb which should prevent any convective updrafts from growing deep enough to support any precipitation. The surface high is forecast to drift southeast across the remainder of the forecast area tonight into Wednesday, maintaining dry weather conditions. Surface winds will turn southwesterly Wednesday, allowing slightly warmer temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. Another slightly more vigorous short wave is progged to track east-southeast from the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Height falls associated with this wave will erode the northeastward extent of the mid-level ridge across our region, with faster westerly flow to settle across the forecast area by early Thursday morning. Meanwhile, an associated surface low will track across MN/WI into northern lower MI during that time, trailing a cold front back across WI/IA/NE. Return flow ahead of this front will supply renewed warm/moist advection into the Plains and upper Mississippi Valley during the period, which in turn is expected to result in developing convection along the front to our west/northwest Wednesday night. Current 12Z CAM guidance indicates the bulk of this will occur well north/west of the cwa, though there is some potential for decaying storms to work into the IL/WI border area by sunrise Thursday morning especially if a significant outflow boundary develops. Greater shower and thunderstorm chances appear to be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night however, as the approaching cold front slowly sags southeast across the forecast area. There continues to be a signal in various guidance for a more amplified short wave (potentially convectively-enhanced from an MCS across the Plains late Wednesday) to track east across the area in this Thursday-Thursday night period. Given increasing low-level moisture (dew points progged into the low-70s) and enhanced mid-level westerly flow (40-45 kts depending on model - and the potential to be stronger if an upstream MCV develops), the balance of instability and shear would likely support some increased risk of severe storms. In addition, forecast precipitable water values of around 2" would also support the potential for locally heavy rainfall, which we certainly don't need in the wake of recent heavy rains. SPC and WPC both have portions of our area in marginal (level 1 of 5/4)outlooks for severe weather and flood potential respectively. At this time, there's still quite a bit of spread in guidance with respect to the mesoscale features which will ultimately affect the details, so we'll have to continue to monitor things. Based on current timing in guidance, the surface cold front is progged to gradually shift south of the forecast area through Friday-Friday night. This looks to shift thunderstorm potential off to the south, though perhaps still across the southern half of our forecast area. From the weekend into early next week, there is decent global ensemble guidance agreement in rebuilding of upper ridging across the central CONUS and upper Midwest. Initially, this supports surface high pressure across the Great Lakes region, though with a return of some 90-degree heat (though likely with some lake-cooling). Eventually however, models weaken the eastern extent of the ridge in the Monday- Tuesday time frame and indicate a trend toward a pattern of northwest flow aloft which we'll have to watch for "ring of fire" MCS potential by the end of the period. Ratzer && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are forecasted through the TAF period with no hazardous weather expected. Light northeast winds are being observed closer to Lake Michigan with light northwest winds farther inland. Winds will diminish overnight, before turning to the southeast and eventually southwest tomorrow morning increasing to around 10 knots by midday. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight CDT Wednesday night for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  012 FXUS61 KRNK 072333 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 733 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes to the flood watch. Aviation updated. Grids updated to account for radar/high-res guidance trends which showing a more downward trend this evening compared to last night. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding across the Piedmont. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: A few heavier storms could bring gusty winds and localized flooding east of the mountains this evening before dissipating. Higher CAPES (3000 J/kg) earlier in the Piedmont leading to strong/severe storms, with plenty of CGs. Airmass is highly moist with PWATS over 2 inches in the Piedmont hence the flood watch through midnight, but radar trends looking less likely for anything more than isolated flooding issues for now. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the beginning of next week. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and roughly westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. This front will be the focus for daily threat of showers/storms with greatest coverage from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the front essentially stalling over the area, will have to contend with a multi-day threat for localized heavy rain and marginally severe storms. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes early Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for Friday and Saturday, with the front passing south of the region on Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal for approaching the middle of July, and widespread excessive heat is not forecast to return at least for this part of the country. The ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is shifting west over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Look for mainly VFR through this evening, outside any shower/storms that may bring sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. Looks like showers fade by late evening but thinking flow turning northeast will bring lower cigs and some fog to area, especially northwest of a line from LWB-DAN. Am leaning toward lower cigs in the mountains, then 1-3kft at ROA/LYH/DAN. In general expect light winds (under 5kts). Should see gradual improvement to VFR by 14z-15z Wednesday. Scattered storms will again fire up in the 17-19z time frame, but best coverage will be after 19z. Not enough to have in TAFS except VCTS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Potentially drier early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ024-034-035- 044>047-058-059. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM/WP AVIATION...PM/WP  018 FXUS63 KARX 072333 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 633 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms are likely (60-80%) Wednesday, primarily during the afternoon into the overnight bringing heavy rainfall. Amounts of 1 inch or more possible (30-50%) with localized amounts of 2-3 inches. - Strong to severe storms may accompany the heavy rainfall Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. - Seasonable temperatures are expected throughout much of the week with highs in the low to mid 80s before warming through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Rest of Today Fairly quiet conditions are expected to linger throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening as weak upper ridging remains situated across the region. There does appear to be some low potential for a stray shower or storm mainly along and north of I-90 ahead of sunset given a few hours where MLCAPE reaches 1000-1500 J/kg per RAP/HRRR/RRFS soundings. The main uncertainty regarding this potential is the lack of a definitive forcing mechanism for convective initiation. Currently thinking any convective development sits at a 10-15% chance. Wednesday - Thursday: Heavy Rain and Strong to Severe Storms More zonal flow takes hold late this evening into the overnight hours, allowing several shortwaves to translate eastward and spark convective development across portions of central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. CAM guidance and short-range ensembles such as the 07.12z REFS/HREF suggest the bulk of convective activity will remain to the north along a surface boundary that currently extends from South Dakota across Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin and along with it, the heaviest rainfall. However, towards the morning hours, showers and storms should begin to move into Taylor and Clark Counties (30-60%) bringing a period of heavy rainfall. The aforementioned boundary begins to slide southeastward through the Wednesday as another leading to showers and storms across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue along this boundary given favorable PWATs in excess of 1.7 inches, above the 90th percentile of climatology, and warm cloud depths of 10-12kft. Boundary relative flow is somewhat parallel rather than orthogonal such that the risk of training is slightly reduced. That said, there is still some decent probabilities for amounts greater than 1 inch of rain in the 07.13z NBM which sits at 30-50%. The 07.12z HREF/REFS 24hr LPMM also suggest some pockets of 2-3 inches are possible along and north of I-90 which would lead to some flooding concerns, especially over southeast Minnesota where the greatest rainfall amounts occurred last week. There is also some flooding concern for areas that see multiple rounds of rain such as north-central Wisconsin. That said, the progressive nature of the boundary should help keep mitigate some of the flooding risk. On top of the heavy rain threat, storms that develop Wednesday may become strong to severe. MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg would support stronger updrafts, although shear is the biggest uncertainty regarding organized convection. There is a few hour window where stronger 500hPa flow aloft elongates hodographs in the 3-6km layer, resulting in shear values of 30-35kts which would support some supercellular structures in storms that initially develop. This would result in a short period where hail could pose a threat, but given the previously discussed warm cloud depths and a WBZ height above 10kft, hail is a lower end threat. However, this upper flow quickly diminishes with time resulting in wind shear being confined to the 0-3km. Thiswould suggest the severe threat would transition to damaging winds as cold pool development and upscale growth to more of a linear mode occurs. Friday - Early Next Week: Warmer Temperatures Return Over the weekend, mid to upper level ridging begins to build across the United States which is noted in most/all of the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Heights associated with this ridge are expected to be fairly impressive, reaching 594-600dam at 500hPa, which the 07.00z NAEFS highlights as near or exceeding the maximum heights within climatology. Surface temperatures trend warmer this weekend into next week in response to these rising heights. There's still quite a bit of spread within the various ensemble suites regarding what the temperatures will ultimately be, but interquartile spreads suggest highs in the upper 80s are favored, but possibly reach into the low 90s. Dewpoint temperatures also increase during this period as the 07.07z NBM suggests a 30-60% probability to exceed 70 degrees highest over northeast Iowa, translating to apparent temperatures in the 90s. Will need to continue monitoring trends, but a return to warm and muggy conditions looks to be on the horizon. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for most of this TAF cycle. The main aviation concern will be the potential for showers or thunderstorms, which is highest towards the end of this TAF period. However, there is a low chance (10-20 percent) for a shower or thunderstorm to approach the terminals early Wednesday morning. If any showers or storms move over the sites Wednesday afternoon, low ceilings and visibility can be expected with MVFR to IFR conditions. Have included PROB30 groups to account for the thunderstorm potential starting at 20z. Otherwise, the wind will remain light around 10 kts or less out of the south to southwest during this 24 hour period. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Falkinham AVIATION...Muscha  038 FXUS63 KMQT 072333 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 733 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening along the Great Lakes lakes breezes. - Showers and thunderstorms become widespread Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. There is a Slight Risk (category 2 out of 5) of excessive rainfall and up to a Marginal Risk (Category 1 of 5) of severe weather. - Temperatures will remain closer to normal through the mid-week, and start to increase by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 GOES water vapor and RAP surface analysis show a weak frontal boundary trailing a stout low centered over the Hudson Bay in Canada. Though this boundary led to some perfunctory convection across the WI border this morning, it has by now passed nearly out of the UP with no initiation. Clearing cloud cover has resulted in warm temperatures above 80 in most locations (in the high 80s in Menominee County) as well as an active cumulus field over the central UP. From radar imagery, a lake breeze initiated from the Lake Superior shoreline at approximately 1:30 pm, and has by now reached KI Sawyer. SPC mesoanalysis currently shows upwards of 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE across most of the CWA and up to 2000 J/kg in spots, as well as 1.1" - 1.3" of PWATs this afternoon. Between the diurnal instability and lake breeze, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible in the central UP this afternoon and evening. Some spots could experience stronger storms and higher accumulations; though the 90th percentile of NBM 6-hour QPF distributions is generally only 0.25", higher amounts can't be ruled out due to adequate buoyancy and plenty of moisture. The main story is the precipitation potential thanks to the Hudson Bay low shortwave approaching the region, which is expected to bring widespread periods of rain and thunderstorms throughout Wednesday and into Thursday. As flow becomes strongly zonal, this embedded wave brings vorticity maxes overspreading the CWA throughout the day on Wednesday. Models agree that some form of upper level lift, possibly enhanced due to rear-right entrance region positioning, will be present, though the exact placement and timing of the trailing jet streak lobe differ. Embedded within this flow is an east-west equivalent potential temperature boundary at low and mid levels which propagates slowly through the area on Wednesday, pressing from the arrowhead of MN between Tuesday evening and finally exiting southeast on Thursday midday. PWATs during this time frame are anomalously high: NAEFS ESAT table shows PWATs above the 90th percentile (1.5" - 1.75") covering the UP by 12Z on Wednesday and persisting for nearly 24 hours, with locally higher amounts (above 1.75"). Given the moist atmosphere and forcing mechanisms present tomorrow, we are outlooked in the General Thunderstorms, Marginal, and Slight categories by SPC, and in the Marginal and Slight categories by WPC's ERO. However, HREF mean SBCAPE tops out at 500 J/kg only along WI border, and HRRR shear profiles appear weak to modest at best. Thus, with lower potential for severe storms, the main concern is somewhat large rain accumulations throughout Wednesday and into Thursday. NBM shows up to 55% probability of over 1" of rain falling over a 24-hour period between Wednesday and Thursday mornings, and 6-hour distributions show that most rain will fall in the overnight hours on Wednesday evening. Though higher-end totals are below flash flood guidance, training showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as the theta-E boundary aligns with flow aloft. Though flood watches are not issued at this time, this possibility accounts for the WPC's categorization of the UP within a Slight Risk. The area dries out by midday Thursday as high pressure moves back in behind the Hudson Bay low, and temperatures should be relatively close to climate normal. Friday marks the beginning of a large ridge building over the Great Plains and extending from the Sierra Mtns to the Appalachians. Anticyclonic mid-level flow sends warm toward the Upper Midwest, resulting in very warm temperatures by Sunday && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 732 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Generally VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening across the area. More widespread showers along with isolated thunderstorms will move in late tonight, which will cause the flight category at all terminals to drop to MVFR after 10Z with IFR conditions likely developing at IWD by 12Z and at SAW by 15Z. Rain showers taper off at IWD and CMX Wednesday afternoon, but additional showers and storms will be possible at SAW into the evening. Generally light winds are expected through the TAF period, with the exception of the immediate vicinity of any thunderstorms that develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Light winds prevail on Lake Superior and the Bay of Green Bay through the period. Periods of rain and thunderstorms commence Tuesday evening through Thursday morning, with most activity expected Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. During this time, winds may be higher near outflow boundaries, though severe storms are not expected. As high pressure builds back in on Thursday, winds lay down through Saturday afternoon. Significant wave heights are expected to be less than 1 ft. Southwesterly flow picks up to 20 knots Sunday and Monday, with gusts to 25 knots and waves to 4 ft. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RE AVIATION...LC MARINE...RE  961 FXUS64 KEWX 072332 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 632 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Low chance for showers and storms this afternoon, but locally heavy rainfall is possible with any storms that form. - Warm temperatures persist through the week with most areas remaining dry Wednesday and Thursday. - Increased moisture brings scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend with perhaps a slight drop in temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Satellite imagery and regional radar show a remnant MCV centered over northern Maverick and southern Val Verde county. This disturbance was responsible for several inches of rainfall for the Edwards Plateau and portions of the Rio Grande Plains yesterday. Additional showers and storms are expected to form in the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon and evening, with locally heavy downpours and minor flooding being the primary concern. Elsewhere, a weak mid- level trough sagging south over the ArkLaTex will result in shower and storm development over the eastern part of the state. Here locally, remnant moisture and strong daytime heating should allow some activity to develop this afternoon and evening over areas generally along and east of US 281, but a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out over the Edwards Plateau again. Any activity will produce locally heavy rainfall capable of minor flooding given slow storm motions. Storms that do form should fizzle out quickly after 03Z. Wednesday will be a hot and dry day with the aforementioned MCV and mid-level trough out of the picture and shortwave ridging building over south central Texas. Temperatures will start out in the upper 60s to middle 70s, warming into the mid to upper 90s by the afternoon along with mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thursday will be yet another dry day with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s again. Heat indices should remain tame given adequate afternoon mixing lowering dewpoints by later in the day. Friday starts the transition to increasing moisture as a disturbance/inverted trough over the southwestern Gulf lifts northward and brings a good chance for showers and storms back into the picture for the weekend. PWATs will surge into the 2-2.25" range Saturday and Sunday, which would result in heavy rainfall rates and tropical-like downpours in any showers or storms that form. Beyond Sunday, a more active pattern may develop with broadscale troughing noted over the western CONUS and southern Plains states while the subtropical high moves over the northern Plains. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions remain across the region, isolated SHRA/TSRA continue to remain possible near KAUS this evening as multiple outflow boundaries approach the terminal. This boundary has already moved through KSAT sparking off some -SHRA/-TSRA as noted in this forecast. Otherwise, expect VFR cigs this evening and overnight with brief possible MVFR cigs around daybreak for all I-35 terminals. Winds should relax overnight before increasing again by late morning into the afternoon and remaining southerly and generally under 10 knots. For KDRT VFR cigs expected throughout the period with easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots overnight turning SE and increasing to around 10 knots after sunrise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 98 76 97 / 20 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 97 74 97 / 20 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 97 73 97 /20 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 96 74 95 / 20 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 96 76 97 / 20 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 97 76 97 / 20 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 96 72 96 / 20 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 97 73 97 / 30 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 97 76 97 / 30 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 96 75 96 / 20 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 96 74 96 / 20 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM....MMM AVIATION...CJM  019 FXUS65 KPUB 072333 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 533 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily shot of showers and thunderstorms through Friday, initially forming over the mts by midday then spreading across the plains. - Increasing flash flood threat for the Aspen Acres burn scar Wednesday and Thursday. - Severe weather threat for the far eastern plains Thursday. - Hot and dry conditions continue over the weekend into next week, as upper high pressure builds across the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Flat upper high pressure area stretches from southern CA across the Four Corners into the US southern Plains. Currently...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across the higher terrain this afternoon, with more activity along the Continental Divide compared to the eastern mts. Temps as of 1 PM have warmed into the upper 70s across the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Tonight...Hi-res models indicate that ongoing convection will push east through 9 PM, then percolate over the far eastern plains north of the Palmer Divide overnight. Do not think that there will be any flooding issues for area burn scars this afternoon and early eve, but of course will continue to monitor for any storm overachievers. Main storm threats continue to be erratic wind gusts 40-50 mph and cloud to ground lightning. Expect overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys, mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains, and moderate overnight humidity recovery for area wildfires. Finally, overnight convection to the north is progged to push an outflow boundary down into southeast colorado, which will provide additional llvl support for activity tomorrow. Tomorrow...Upper pattern remains in place, with llvl E-SE winds supporting what short range models have been indicating for a few days, which is a stronger signal for more widespread convection all along the eastern mts. Best time window for shower and thunderstorm development will be between noon and 2 PM, with the greatest areal coverage between 2 PM and 6 PM. Therefore, went ahead and issued a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar from noon until 8 pm, due to the increased potential for a storm to track across the newly burned area and produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Elsewhere, convection should push east across the eastern plains through the afternoon and early evening, and there is a slight chance that one or two of those storms may become strong to possibly severe across Kiowa, bent and Prowers counties. Expect high temps in the 80s for the high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the plains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Wednesday night and Thursday...Little change to the upper pattern, with the flat ridge remaining in place across the region through Thu. Any lingering convection Wed night is expected to diminish by midnight, with a mild night anticipated. A stronger upper shortwave crosses the state on Thu, with hi-res models predicting CAPE around 1500 j/kg and increasing bulk shear for the eastern plains. Latest SPC guidance has much of the plains outlooked in a Marginal to Slight category, so while convection will still need to be monitored for rainfall rates across area burn scars, farther east damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the concern. Latest guidance is leaning towards high temps a degree or two cooler for Thu, especially across the east, with 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Another concern to note, critical fire weather conditions make a return to the San Luis Valley Thu afternoon. Friday...Upper high starts to amplify once again through the day, leading to drying across UT and western CO. Long range models do show another upper disturbance dropping south across the central US plains and eastern CO, keeping storm chances in play for the CO plains Fri afternoon and evening. Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Spotty critical fire weather conditions continue across the San Luis Valley. Saturday through Tuesday...Upper ridge migrates to the north and northeast over the weekend and into the upcoming work week, providing for hot and dry conditions. However, this movement does open the door for some monsoon moisture to start creeping northward into the Four Corners region. At this time, effects are negligible in the extended, but there remains some hope for the second half of the month. Moore && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 527 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 KALS...showers and thunderstorms will continue across the San Luis Valley into this evening with gusty outflow winds to near 35 kts as they pass. VFR conditions will prevail overnight into Wednesday afternoon. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms are expected across the San Luis Valley that will likely impact the terminal. KCOS and KPUB...showers and thunderstorms will impact both terminals this evening. Gusty outflow winds near 35 kts will accompany the storms, along with brief heavy rain. KPUB will see smoke with slightly reduced VIS due to the outflow winds. VFR conditions will then prevail overnight into Wednesday morning. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms will impact the terminals on Wednesday afternoon with gusty outflow winds. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOZLEY  146 FXUS61 KRLX 072336 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 736 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the week, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. 2) Near seasonable temperatures are expected through the period, with dense valley fog possible in some locations at night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Locally heavy rain will remain possible throughout the rest of the work week and into the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place amid some forcing from a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend amid relatively weak steering flow of 10 knots or less. This combined with afternoon/evening heating results in the potential for slow-moving showers and storms w/ heavy rainfall. Activity today and tomorrow will be of the isolated to scattered variety, with the higher chances for rain tomorrow shifting slightly southward corresponding with the movement of the aforementioned frontal boundary. Showers and storms could be more widespread at times Thursday into the weekend as a series of upper waves progress overhead. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across much of the forecast area through Thursday, with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall Friday into the weekend. While organized severe weather is not currently anticipated, given progged Mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg each afternoon, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out, especially later in the work week. The main hazard with any stronger storms would be damaging winds via collapsing cores. Drier weather attempts to build into the area late this weekend into early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2... Overall, temperatures are expected to remain +/- 5 degrees of seasonable norms throughout the period. This translates into highs across the lowlands in the 80s, with lows in the mid to upper 60s, all amid continued high humidity. Some fog development is anticipated most nights given the recent wet weather, with dense fog possible in some locations. Fog will be most prevalent across valley locations and/or areas that receive rainfall the prior afternoon/evening. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A heavy shower or thunderstorm may briefly drop visibility to MVFR at CKB or EKN from 00Z to 04Z this evening. Otherwise, the evening will start with area-wide VFR conditions and light and variable winds. IFR/LIFR fog is expected to develop at most TAF sites overnight, along with broken to scattered low ceilings. Fog will dissipate between 12Z and 14Z Wednesday, and VFR conditions will return with light westerly winds. Pop-up thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday afternoon with VCTS included at all of the sites beyond 18Z. Light and variable flow is expected through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and placement of fog and low ceilings overnight may vary. Timing and extent of Wednesday afternoon thunderstorms may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L M M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions associated with thunderstorms remain possible into the weekend, more likely in the afternoon and evening hours. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, primarily across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GW AVIATION...26  184 FXUS63 KAPX 072337 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 737 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain/thunderstorms return midweek. Locally heavy rain is the primary concern. - Trending drier for much of the weekend into at least early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Shortwave ridging continues locally this afternoon before turning more zonal later tonight and eventually weakly troughed later Wednesday into Thursday. Attendant nearly stationary/slow-moving frontal boundary will make slow southeastward progress across northern Michigan Wednesday through Thursday, providing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Thursday, generally drier conditions expected to prevail locally. That said, latest trends continue to suggest there'll be a northern stream wave or two to monitor over the coming weekend into early next week for at least low precip chances as impressive ridging/heat dome builds upstream over the Front Range and central/southern Plains. Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated across much of northern MI this afternoon through tonight, although a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE and lake breeze processes may be enough to kick off an isolated shower/storm across the eastern U.P. this afternoon. Chances for this are low, but not quite low enough to not mention. Focus turns to the very late tonight through Thursday. Several pieces of shortwave energy will have influence across the area, along with a slow-moving boundary that'll crawl southeast across the forecast area through this time frame. By Wednesday morning, deep layer moisture expected to already be in place across the eastern U.P. with PWs in excess of 1.5-1.75". This moisture gradually sags south with time Wednesday afternoon/night into Thursday. Greatest instability on Wednesday with focus over northern areas as well -- with the heaviest rain potential during the day Wednesday across the eastern U.P., the tip of the mitt, perhaps stretching down into sections of northwest lower by late in the day. WPC maintains a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall across these areas. By Wednesday night into Thursday, best forcing gradually slides southeast, eventually shifting the axis of most numerous showers/ storms over a broader area of northern lower. WPC's excessive rain outlook for Thursday features much of northern lower in a Marginal Risk (level 1/4). Localized instances of flash flooding appear to be the main threat with these showers/storms, especially if the axis of best forcing and instability manifest across parts of the forecast area, given efficient rain production and potential for training convection. While this threat is area-wide, it's likely heightened for those where FFG is lowest as a result of heavy rain several days ago (tip of the mitt, parts of Leelanau, Antrim, Charlevoix counties). While severe weather doesn't appear to be a glaring threat, limited instability combined with increased flow aloft and 25-35 kts of 0- 6km shear may result in a few stronger storms capable of producing damaging winds Wednesday into Wednesday night. This lines up pretty well with SPC's latest D2 SWO that paints a Marginal Risk (level 1/5 across much of northern lower, with a higher threat for severe storms to our west across WI. This low end threat may continue across parts of northeast lower MI Thursday. Trending drier Friday into the weekend. Main story across the CONUS during this time likely to be impressive ridging/heat dome building across the Intermountain West into the nation's midsection (600+ dM 500mb heights possible by Monday -- some +2 to 3 sigma above climatological mean). Uncertainty exists how far north and east this feature builds late in the weekend into next week, which will play driver to our sensible weather locally. Latest trends suggest warming temperatures heading into early next week, with limited precip chances, but should this upper high remain suppressed south and west, additional precip chances would become more likely. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 737 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 After MBL/APN had a touch of fog this morning, have some brief restrictions possible at those sites overnight again. Otherwise, clouds will be increasing, especially PLN/CIU, with have excellent chances for showers and MVFR cigs to develop on Wednesday. VFR elsewhere. Light winds. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJG AVIATION...JZ  272 FXUS63 KDLH 072339 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 639 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rainfall is possible tonight from the Brainerd Lakes to the Hayward Lakes this evening through early Wednesday morning. Localized flash flooding and minor flooding are possible. - A Flood Watch in effect tonight through late Wednesday morning from the Brainerd Lakes east to Pine County where the risk of flooding is greatest. - Minimal precipitation in the extended forecast with potentially impressive heat this weekend into next week. - A brief cooldown on Wednesday with a break in the humidity until late this week when hot weather returns Saturday. The risk of heat-related illness will increase. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Main stories for this forecast package involve the potential for heavy rain tonight and early Wednesday then the warm-up this weekend into next week which will raise the potential for heat- related illness. Synopsis... As of 19Z this afternoon a nearly stationary front stretched from near Watertown, SD to near St. Cloud, MN to near Bayfield, WI. Regional radar mosaic revealed an area of light rain over eastern North Dakota with showers over a portion of northwest Minnesota. A compact MCS was noted over west-central Minnesota while an MCV from early morning convection was centered over far northeast South Dakota within an area of stratiform rain. The latest SPC RAP analysis revealed MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg over east-central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota with a gradient northward along and just north of the front. This afternoon through Wednesday morning... Expect the MCS to propagate eastward along the instability gradient through late afternoon. It will likely strengthen as greater instability builds ahead and to the south of the complex. Meanwhile the trailing MCV will create a localized enhancement in convergence and lift in its wake. The showers over North Dakota and northwest Minnesota are forecast to spread eastward into northern Minnesota by this evening in response to a lobe of 500 mb vorticity over North Dakota this afternoon which will propagate eastward through tonight. The main focus for heavy rainfall and a small risk of severe storms will be found along and north of the front. This evening, an 850 mb low-level jet is forecast to develop and create enhanced low-level convergence along and north of the front. Instability will become somewhat limited overnight with MUCAPE values of 500-2000 J/kg straddling the front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in north-central South Dakota this afternoon and propagate eastward with time tonight. Meanwhile additional storms are forecast to develop over central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. The strongest moisture advection will be over the Brainerd Lakes by 08.06Z and will propagate farther eastward overnight. A reservoir of PWAT values of 2 to 2.5 inches is forecast to build over central Minnesota in response to southerly theta-e advection through late evening. Freezing heights will be around 13kft which combined with limited instability and 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots should produce low-centroid storms and efficient precipitation production. Several CAMs reveal a training patter of storms tonight over central Minnesota which raises the potential for widespread 1-3 inch rainfall amounts. Isolated 2-4 inch amounts are certainly possible. With all these factors in mind along the the recent rainfall over the Northland, we decided to issue a Flood Watch from the Brainerd Lakes east into Pine County. That area is the most likely to see excessive rainfall. Flash flood guidance over the watch area ranges from 1.5 to 2.25 inches in 1 hour and1.8-2.5 inches in 3 hours. Those precipitation rates are well within reach given this setup. The severe weather risk is more limited. The modest instability and mid-level winds will limit the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greater potential for severe storms is to the southwest of my area. The existence of the MCS/MCV combination has the potential to displace the strongest convergence south of the Northland for tonight, which would shift the area of heavy rain potential out of our area. These trends will need to be monitored through this evening. Showers and storms will persist overnight and slowly taper off from west to east Wednesday morning. The risk of flash flooding decreases rapidly as storms weaken. Wednesday afternoon and evening... The front is expected to loiter over the southern third of Minnesota into central Wisconsin Wednesday. Another round of showers and storms is forecast to our south which may propagate eastward into the Hayward and Phillips areas during the late afternoon and evening hours. Depending on how far east the heavy rain tonight occurs, there may be a chance of flash flooding over those areas. Temperature will generally trend cooler for Wednesday due in part to lingering cloud cover. Northeast winds will allow a weak lake breeze to propagate well inland keeping temps cooler. Look for high temperatures in the low 80s north and south to the low to upper 70s from the Brainerd Lakes into NW WI and shoreline areas of the Arrowhead. Thursday through early next week... We will enter a period of quieter weather for the remainder of this week. Widespread rain chances dwindle as zonal flow develops over the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Upper- level ridging will build Sunday into early next week which will allow strong southwesterly theta-e advection to bring a return of upper 80s to low 90s temperatures. Dewpoints will increase as well. The risk of heat-related illness will trend higher starting as early as Saturday and persisting through Wednesday at least. Several rounds of heat headlines may be needed. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thunderstorms move into central Minnesota this evening towards sunset and affect terminals along and south of the Iron Range. Periods of IFR visibilities are expected tonight due to heavy rainfall for a 3-6 hour period at any given terminal south of the Range. Anywhere from 1-3 inches of new rainfall is possible for the Brainerd Lakes to the inland northwest Wisconsin as the heavy rainfall ends Wednesday morning. Rain showers linger behind the band of heavy rainfall into Wednesday mid-day as IFR becoming MVFR skies slowly clear out. The Borderlands looks ot largely remain without heavy rainfall and limited to scattered light showers and fog tonight. Fog is also forecast late tonight to build behind the heavy rain showers into early Wednesday morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Relatively light winds and waves of less than 2 feet are forecast for the remainder of the week. There is a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms tonight over western Lake Superior. A few storms may be strong with small hail and wind gusts to 30 knots. Persistent southwest winds are forecast Sunday through Tuesday which would build waves from Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Small Craft Advisories may eventually be needed. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Showers and storms are forecast to develop tonight mainly from the Brainerd Lakes eastward into northwest Wisconsin. Heavy rain is possible with these storms with 1-3 inches of rain possible and localized areas of 2-4 inches. A secondary area of rain and storms is possible farther north over northern Minnesota. It is possible that areas closer to the International Border receive little to no rain. Light northerly winds continue (outside of any thunderstorms) tonight and Wednesday. RH values will dry out into the 35-45 percent range north of a line from Northome to Ely to near Grand Portage. Clouds and showers will keep RHs higher south of US-2. After Wednesday morning the potential for widespread rain dwindles. A warm-up expected this weekend into next week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for MNZ033-034-036-038. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...NLy MARINE...Huyck FIRE WEATHER...Huyck  235 FXUS64 KOHX 072338 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 638 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and weekend. Heat index values near 100 degrees are possible mid to late week, mainly west of the Plateau. - Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with the stronger, slower-moving storms. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 We've had very persistent weather conditions across the area the past several days. At times convective parameters have changed to influence the overall coverage/intensity of showers and storms, and that will continue to be the case. For today, observed and forecast soundings suggest a bit of a mix of slow-moving heavy rainfall producers given PWs 1.8" to 1.9" for areas west of I-65. There's already been isolated activity near the Tennessee River this morning, mainly mod-heavy showers, in proximity to better moisture profiles and the lingering upper-low swirling over the Mid Mississippi Valley. Areas east of I-65 have a little more mid- level dry air/DCAPE. This suggests an increased probability of strong storms and isolated damaging winds, but the overall severe threat is very low and storm intensity will be somewhat transient given little wind shear. Guidance is bringing best coverage of convection today across the northern half of Middle Tennessee, but all areas could have at least scattered activity through the afternoon and evening. For tomorrow the air mass isn't appearing to change much. There's still plenty of moisture and diurnal instability around. The weak upper-low just to our west is forecast to devolve into a more open shortwave trough and move slowly northeast toward Kentucky. Regardless, this feature aloft will continue to influence afternoon/evening convection through tomorrow evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The aforementioned shortwave will be slowly scooting' northeast on Thursday. Best rain/storm chances will be across the eastern portions of Middle Tennessee as a result. However, medium-ragne guidance continues to depict a zonal flow thereafter with passing perturbations late week which will interact with moist, unstable air and a surface boundary. Waves of mainly diurnal convection are forecast Friday through Sunday as a result. The overall risk of severe weather and flooding is low, but some of these details will be more predictable as we get closer to late week since an increase in mid-level flow is progged. Guidance & ensembles are shifting to drier conditions early next week. Throughout the forecast period there are no temperature-related issues, just typical summer heat and humidity. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A weak surface boundary remains stretched across Middle Tennessee this evening and has provided the focus for convection for most of the afternoon, with still considerable activity ongoing as we head into the evening. In the near term, KBNA and KMQY are the most likely to be affected for the next hour or so. Overnight, we once again expect widespread fog across the region, although we're not confident that IFR conditions will develop, so we'll keep it MVFR for now at all terminals. Tomorrow, once again, we expect afternoon convection to develop which we've handled with PROB30 remarks. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 88 71 91 / 20 50 20 30 Clarksville 70 87 70 91/ 20 60 20 30 Crossville 66 83 66 83 / 20 70 30 60 Columbia 69 88 69 90 / 20 50 30 40 Cookeville 68 84 68 85 / 20 70 50 60 Jamestown 66 83 66 84 / 20 70 40 50 Lawrenceburg 68 86 69 88 / 20 50 40 50 Murfreesboro 70 89 70 91 / 20 50 30 40 Waverly 69 86 69 90 / 20 50 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Rose  264 FXUS66 KOTX 072339 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 439 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical Fire Weather: Red Flag Warnings in effect Tuesday and Wednesday due to a combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity. - Thunderstorm Potential: Slight (10 to 20 percent) chance for high- based showers and thunderstorms across Eastern WA and North ID Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Critical fire weather conditions will continue for Central Washington Tuesday evening and expand across Eastern WA Wednesday afternoon and evening as a dry cold front tracks through the region. The front will bring a low (10 to 20 percent) chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms over Eastern WA and North ID Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will decrease slightly but remain breezy Thursday and Friday, keeping fire weather conditions elevated through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday evening through Wednesday: Relative humidity has fallen into the teens across much of the region as of Tuesday afternoon with poor recoveries expected Tuesday night. Gusty southwest winds will persist Tuesday afternoon and evening across the western Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley, and west winds will increase Tuesday evening along the Cascade foothills Thursday evening as a dry cold front approaches. Consequently, Red Flag Warnings are in effect through 10 PM Tuesday for the Moses Lake and Wenatchee areas northward up the Okanogan Valley. The cold front will crawl inland overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, bringing slight cooling and a shift into zonal flow. Winds will remain breezy across Central WA Tuesday night before strengthening and expanding across the rest of Eastern WA and North ID Wednesday. A second round of Red Flag warnings have been issued for Wednesday across these zones where fuels have been declared dry enough to support fire weather highlights. Widespread westerly gusts of 25-30 mph will spread over the Columbia Basin, Palouse, Spokane area, Northeast WA, and North ID. The windiest spots near Cascade gaps and over exposed areas of the Basin will see gusts up to 30-40 mph. While not exceptionally strong, these winds will meet critical thresholds for fire weather concerns. Ahead of the front, mid-level moisture moving up from Oregon will create enough instability to bring low (but nonzero) chances for elevated convection. A few hi-res models continue to depict isolated thunderstorms tracking from southwest to northeast across the Cascade Crest, over the eastern third of WA, and over North ID late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Any precip generated with these storms will have to fall through a large layer of dry air before reaching the surface. Thus, most if not all precip will likely evaporate before hitting the ground. Confidence is low in there being enough lift to trigger storms, but given the dry boundary layer and critical fire weather conditions expected for Wednesday, any lightning strikes would pose a fire hazard. The current forecast carries a 10 to 15 percent chance of sprinkles and a 5 to 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. Behind the front, precipitable water values fall back to 60 to 80 percent of normal, keeping humidity levels low despite slightly cooler temperatures. The Cascades and east slopes will be the exception, where a deep marine layer spilling over from the west side will keep humidities higher (25 to 35 percent). Thursday through Saturday: Elevated west-southwest winds persist Thursday under continued zonal flow. While winds speeds will be lighter than those on Wednesday, widespread breezy conditions with gusts of 20 to 25 mph will maintain elevated fire weather concerns. Friday will see similar wind speeds and gusts out of the west-southwest. By Saturday, there is growing confidence that the next trough will shift into the region, bringing another round of gusty winds. The latest NBM indicates a 40 to 70 percent chance of sustained wind speeds exceeding 20 mph across Central WA. Chances climb as high as 80 percent down the Okanogan Valley. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: VFR weather will prevail across the region through the 00z TAF cycle. Light to modest breezes at most of the TAF sites will subside overnight, with the exception of KEAT and potentially KPUW. At KEAT, northwesterly shift and increase will likely occur between 00-02z, with occasional gusts to 30kts possible and through the Cascade gaps overnight. Lower confidence for breezy southwest winds (gusts 20-25kts) reaching KPUW overnight. A dry cold front will then move through the region Wednesday morning, which will cause breezy to windy westerly winds to emerge through the day. There is also a low chance of sprinkles (10-15%) and dry thunderstorms (5%) between 06z and 18z with this front, though confidence remains too low to mention in the TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. Low confidence for sprinkles affecting the TAF sites, very low confidence in thunderstorm chances. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 62 88 56 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 62 87 57 84 56 85 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 57 83 51 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 64 92 60 90 59 93 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 57 89 53 86 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 61 87 56 84 57 86 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 59 84 56 81 54 84 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 60 91 54 90 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 66 87 60 88 61 88 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 62 92 55 91 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin - Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$  303 FXUS63 KFGF 072340 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 640 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 2 out of 5 risk this evening into the morning hours for severe hail, damaging wind gusts, and excessive rainfall/flash flooding. This threat exists along and south of interstate 94 and Highway 10 (southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota). - Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Mostly just rain and a few thunderstorms across our forecast area currently, but some elevated storms starting to develop in south central ND near the SD border. This will spread into southeastern ND during the later part of this evening, and tried to reflect this and radar trends in the POP grids but will probably have to make adjustments later. With deep layer bulk shear around 35 kts and MU CAPE over 1000 J/kg, will have to watch for some elevated hail developing near the SD border in the next few hours. Heavy rain will also likely be an issue with several of the ensembles showing some extremely heavy QPF amounts in their outlying solutions. Flood watch for west central MN continues. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...Synopsis... Ensembles are in good agreement with the large scale pattern over the next 7 days, depicting the current zonal flow to transition into a sort of omega block pattern with ridging across the central CONUS. Details less certain of course. ...Severe and Flash Flood Potential... Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough across Montana slowly propagating eastward. As this feature continue to propagate eastward this evening, anticipate a strong 850mb jet to develop with nose of this feature into the southern Red River Valley. Currently, showers are developing along a 700mb boundary across central North Dakota, with additional activity associated with an MCV across the southern RRV and west central Minnesota. This activity will continue eastward, although impacts will be minimal. Later this evening, the 850mb front will shift north as the low level jet increases. Surface instability will remain across South Dakota, but with instability along the elevated front and stronger warm air advection there is a very high chance for elevated thunderstorms along and south of I-94/Hwy10. Severe Potential...Freezing levels are near 15 Kft, but given the elevated nature of the storms potential exists for near severe to severe hail given MUCAPE near 2000 J/Kg and effective shear near 50 knots. Potential also exists for severe wind given the anticipated strong low level bulk shear, even with the storm being elevated. The elevated nature of the storms will limit severe potential, but will not eliminate severe potential. Excessive rainfall/flash flood potential...Anticipate heavy rainfall rates given PWATS near 1.75 inches along with soundings indicating efficient rainfall rate processes (plus high freezing level). Given the west to east position of the elevated front, potential also exists for training storms. CAM guidance indicating mean rainfall 1-2 inches with max rainfall near 5 inches. Given all of this, plus the rain that fell yesterday (1-2 inches) across west central Minnesota, will issue a flood watch for flash flood potential (10p-7a). ...Dangerous Heat... As the ridging builds into the weekend, anticipate max temperatures 95F-100F (maybe a bit warmer) across much of the region Saturday through Monday. Heat risk, wet bulb globe temp, and heat index values all indicate a dangerous heat episode. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Currently VFR at all TAF sites with some thunderstorms around KFAR and showers at KGFK and theMN airports. Have VCSH or prevailing rain for much of this evening for all except KDVL. KFAR could get down to MVFR visibility with any heavier cells that go across, but not confident enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will move away from our TAF sites between 08 and 12Z tonight. Decreasing clouds and VFR conditions for the second half of the period. Winds that are northwesterly around 8-10 kts at some locations will become light and variable, then pick up again out of the northeast at 8 to 10 kts tomorrow. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for MNZ029>032-040. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...JR  298 FXUS63 KLMK 072339 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 739 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds this afternoon and evening, and again on Wednesday afternoon and evening. * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Cutoff low continues to meander near the Mississippi and Ohio River confluence, and the associated PWAT airmass is up around 2" through the column. Scattered showers and storms have developed in this moist and moderately unstable (2000 J/KG of ML CAPE) airmass, however there isn't a lot of deep layer shear as has been the case the past several days. The end result continues to be slow-moving heavy rain producers that develop on remnant outflow from previous storms, and the collapse rather quickly. Basin average QPF amounts won't be all that impressive, however localized amounts close to 2 inches are possible in fairly short periods of time. A few Flash Flood instances may arise, and scattered Flood Advisories seem probable through the diurnal peak late afternoon through the evening. Convection is expected to diminish later this evening with a quiet overnight in store. There will likely be patchy fog development once again, especially in area that see swaths of heavier rain today. After highs in the mid to upper 80s today, mild low temps only in the upper 60s and low 70s are expected tonight. The pesky closed upper low will start to get picked up by the prevailing westerlies tomorrow, and will likely transition to an open shortwave as it slowly slides through the area. The morning will likely start off quiet, however initiation of scattered showers and storms is expected by late morning into the afternoon once convective temps are reached. Another rinse/repeat day with diurnally driven slow-moving showers and storms capable of locally heavy rainfall. A few Flash Flood Warnings and/or a handful of Flood Advisories continue to be likely. Temps will be similar to today in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thursday - Sunday... The closed upper low that had plagued the area through mid week will finally get picked up by the prevailing westerlies by Thursday. This feature will move east as an open wave, with more of a subsident airmass in place behind the departing trough axis. As a result, we have lower chances for showers and storms, along with lighter expected rainfall amounts through the day. This could be the one day we don't get a bunch of diurnally driven pulse storms in the afternoon and evening, and more just a few lingering showers earlier in the day. Will be looking for highs in the mid to upper 80s. By Thursday night, focus will shift upstream as a shortwave embedded within the zonal flow aloft ejects toward our region. This feature is likely to trigger some sort of convective complex upstream during peak heating, and then work toward our area into the overnight. Depending on how much of a cold pool this gets going, and time of arrival it seems feasible that a wind threat could accompany any complex that survives into our area late Thursday night Friday morning. Overall, the deep layer shear profile isn't too impressive, and storms would likely be arriving during the diurnal minimum. However, all you need is a good cold pool pushing into some lingering MU CAPE, which we will likely have, and marginally sufficient deep layer shear contributing to MCS maintenance. Will carry pretty widespread pops in the late Thursday night/early Friday morning time frame. Could be some concern with localized flooding given wet antecedent conditions ahead of this wave, and PWATs potentially surging over 2" through the column with this wave. One thing that could mitigate the early flood threat, however, would be the likely progressive nature of the complex as it moves through the area. At this very least, this wave may set the stage for higher flooding concerns with the following waves expected into the weekend. A concerning setup looks to continue into the weekend as progressive zonal flow aloft persists over our area, while a slow moving surface front sinks into our region and stalls. This W-E oriented boundary will be parallel to the upper flow, and with multiple moisture-laden shortwaves riding along it, we'll expected repeated rounds of shower and storms through Saturday night. The final wave sometime Saturday into early Sunday could be the most potent, and if we have already seen multiple rounds of showers and storms we could be set up for some more concerning flood potential by this time. Ensemble plumes through the weekend show most clustering around 2-4" of rain for basin average amounts, however 07/00z deterministic runs show swaths of 4-6" across the area. Given the setup with moderate instability, periods of high PWATs near 2" through the column, and tall/skinny CAPE combined with high freezing levels (14-15K feet), think localized amounts could potentially be higher. Especially with the W-E training of multiple waves over the same area. Will be ramping up messaging today, and may have to start mentioning potential for significant localized flooding as a possibility through the weekend. Will mention one scenario that could help us dodge a round or two through the weekend. If we can get one of the upstream MCS to really blast through our region, it could potentially set up the convectively reinforced boundary farther south. Of course, we would likely have to pay the price with a higher damaging wind threat if that did happen, so I guess it could be a "pick your poison" type of deal. Sunday Night - Tuesday... Interesting pattern change as we go into early next week. Strong upper riding characterized by H5 heights around 600 dam will build into the central CONUS, with eastern fringes of influence into our area. This should bring us into a drier/warmer pattern with the previous frontal boundary sinking well south. The setup transitions to a Rex Block pattern through at least mid week, and should give us some relief from the relentless rain for a little bit, however at the expense of increasing temps back toward the 90s. This will be a notable change after weekend temps more in the lower and mid 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 739 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Currently, scattered rain showers are showing a weakening trend and moving NE out of the area. Another fog potential tonight as winds are very light with some added moisture from todays precip. Sites are expected to stay MVFR, however RGA has the best chance of IFR vis since the site received direct rainfall throughout the day. Tomorrow afternoon and evening rain chances will return with more isolated showers and storms, much like today. Ceilings will drop around 5k ft for several hours, but return above 10k ft by 00z. Winds will be light and variable throughout the day tomorrow as a surface high begins to move through the region. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...CAL  409 FXUS63 KDMX 072343 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 643 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and sunny conditions continue today, with warmer temperatures near 90 expected Wednesday. - Thunderstorm chances return Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. A few storms may producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall over north central Iowa. - Additional rainfall around 1 to 2 inches Wednesday through Thursday may slow or worsen ongoing improvement along area rivers. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Today's conditions over Iowa show a similar picture to this time yesterday, with cumulus clouds speckling sunny skies. Winds are light and generally out of the south and temperatures have warmed into the 80s. Heat index values are a bit higher in the upper 80s and low 90s thanks to the moist upper 60 to 70 dewpoints and little cooling from the wind. Surface high pressure is to be thanked for another day of nice conditions, but will be steadily departing the area tonight into Wednesday. Return flow on the backside of the high pressure will bring the warm, moist low to mid-level moisture stream back into Iowa. This will first result in warmer temperatures on Wednesday as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s for some. This moist air will also bring some increased cloudiness and rain/thunderstorm chances to Iowa Wednesday through Friday. The first of this rain and cloudiness could come as early as mid- to late Wednesday morning, as convective debris lingers into Iowa from overnight convection in the Dakotas and Minnesota tonight. Most of short-range guidance has this activity diminishing by the time it arrives in our forecast area, as the airmass over Iowa will be more stable than farther north, at least in the morning hours. However, we saw storms persist into Iowa this morning under less favorable conditions, so it's certainly possible a few showers or even a thunderstorm grazes northern Iowa this morning. Fortunately, these storms would be elevated with less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, so anticipate storms will be sub-severe albeit with some gusty winds possible given the dry sub-cloud air. A boundary is then expected to set up over western into northern Iowa through the day Wednesday, as a very subtle 500 mb shortwave passes from west to east across northern Iowa. The combination of this weak wave and boundary will result in thunderstorm chances over northern Iowa Wednesday afternoon through the evening. The thunderstorm environment through this period isn't necessarily jumping off the page, depicting modest instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and marginal deep layer shear (25 to 35 kts of 0-6 km shear). This is sufficient for a few organized updrafts and strong to severe storms. The main risk with storms will be the damaging wind potential, as a well-mixed boundary layer ahead of the boundary will promote evaporative cooling and enhanced winds down to the surface. Hail will also be a possibility, although large hail may be difficult to come by, barring an increase in wind shear allowing for supercell development. Finally, the tornado risk also appears low with relatively high LCLs and marginal low level SRH (50 to 100 m2/s2) but can't rule it out with any storms tied into a surface boundary. With 1.7" to 2.0" precipitable water values along the boundary, efficient rainfall may occur with these storms. Rainfall amounts around an inch are expected, with localized pockets of 2 to 3 inches possible, mainly over north central Iowa. The severe thunderstorm potential generally wanes late Wednesday evening and overnight, but isolated to scattered elevated storm activitymay still linger along the boundary as it sags southward into the overnight hours. That said, a lull in activity is possible overnight before more storms begin to move in from the west early Thursday morning, being fed by the LLJ nosed up into the Plains. Model guidance isn't in complete agreement for how this second round of storms will look, as the northward extent of the jet varies among solutions. This comes in the form of a mesoscale convective system, but track will be dependent on the jet and the final position of the boundary. Damaging winds could be possible should this MCS hold on into central Iowa, although guidance is trying to dissipate the system as it enters the state early Thursday. Of similar concern would be more heavy rainfall associated with this system as it moves through, as well as redevelopment associated with any MCVs as it moves through the state Thursday. It's tough to put too much stock in redevelopment on leftover mesoscale features at this range, but will want to watch high resolution models as additional thunderstorm development is possible again Thursday afternoon over far southern Iowa and into Missouri. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 One more shortwave passes through the 500 mb pattern on Friday, bringing more shower and storm chances to the state, albeit to a lower confidence given a lot of the moisture transport will be focused to the south of Iowa. After this Friday wave, 500 mb ridging fills in aloft, keeping conditions dry and warm for most of the state through the weekend. Highs by next week climb back into the upper 80s and potentially the low 90s. This high pressure looks to stick around for a few days, before eventually breaking down late next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions to prevail through the end of this TAF period. The rest of the night will feature light winds with mostly clear skies. As we near the end of this TAF period showers and storms will start to push into northern Iowa. Confidence is medium (30-50%) that storms will be impacting KMCW at the end of this TAF period that a PROB30 group has been introduced. Confidence is too low to include PROB30 groups at any other terminals at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Rivers and streams in central Iowa continue to see increased flows as water continues to route through the system. One river in central Iowa maintains a flood warning, which is the South Skunk River near Colfax (CFXI4) that has actively crested at moderate flood stage and will be falling below flood stage this afternoon. This portion of the South Skunk River flows into the Oskaloosa (OOAI4) area, but at this point should remain below it's minor flood stage. Other rivers within the Des Moines and Cedar River basins are also at increased levels as water works it's way down stream, albeit all below flood stage and continuing to recede. Additional rainfall later this week, especially Wednesday evening through Friday, could lead to slower improvement and/or additional rises on area rivers, depending on what basins this rain affects. The heaviest rain looks like it will fall over north central Iowa, and should be in isolated pockets. However, should one of these isolated pockets fall in the wrong spots, conditions may be exacerbated. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dodson LONG TERM...Dodson AVIATION...TDR HYDROLOGY...Dodson  412 FXUS65 KPIH 072343 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 543 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms expected through tomorrow evening with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms - Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon across the southern highlands along the Utah border due to thunderstorms, and potentially again Wednesday - Drier weather returns for the second half of the week with hot conditions likely for the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are still expected across two main areas through tonight. The first is currently ongoing and should expand in coverage is south of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. The expectation is to see some seepage (likely outflow-related) into the Magic Valley and Snake Plain around Pocatello and Blackfoot. We will see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms with this batch, along with a 50-90% chance of gusts of 35-55 mph. There is a MARGINAL RISK in this area for strong winds. The other area across the mountains from around Mackay through Island Park. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts of 35-55 mph and just a small chance of rain and thunder. There will likely be outflow across other areas and MAYBE some thunderstorms developing along those boundaries, but confidence in any one location seeing that right now is too low to forecast. We will This should last past midnight in some spots but pretty much done by sunrise. Tomorrow's round is likely a little more widespread, but the two more concentrated areas will be in the central mountains through Island Park and higher elevations south of the Snake Plain. The potential for strong outflow winds is very similar to tomorrow, but increased a bit overall due to increased coverage. Starting Thursday and through the weekend, dry and hot conditions are still expected. Highs by the weekend, especially Sunday will be in the mid 90s to low 100s. The highest end range is still pushing hotter spots closer to 105, but that is likely a combination of full sunshine and potentially ongoing bias with the Blend of Models in more extreme heat events. It is something worth watching however at this point. The trend is still showing high pressure building in, BUT the center of the ridge may stay far enough east to allow limited monsoon moisture arriving by Monday, and deeper moisture toward the middle of next week. At the moment, the Blend is forecasting this type of trend starting Monday. There is still a fairly even split on WHEN the deeper moisture might arrive, based on where the ridge centers itself. Half (or close to half) keep it still far enough west to hold off until mid-week, while the rest bring it in as soon as Monday. Daily high temperatures in that type of pattern will be highly dependent on the amount of clouds and storms around each day. At the moment, temperatures will likely stay in the 90s for the most part as a general trend. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 543 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Activity this afternoon is very isolated, although KBYI and KPIH could both still see a shower or storm pass through tonight as activity shifts northeastward. There will be a break in activity this evening through early tomorrow afternoon before scattered convection returns. Probability of thunder Wednesday afternoon is highest at further west, with 30 to 40 at KPIH, 60 to 70 at KBYI, and 40 to 50 at KSUN. PROB30 may be changed to predominant thunderstorms for the latter two sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through early evening with red flag warnings in effect for zones 413 and 427. Expect the storms to dissipateovernight. The threat for storms exists again on Wednesday with a red flag warning in place again Wednesday afternoon in zone 427 which is targeted for the most activity by the models. Left the other zones out with only isolated coverage expected. Dry conditions are expected Thursday through Sunday with extremely hot conditions expected to be in place the weekend with many low elevation locations reaching triple digits with widespread minimum humidity well below 15 percent. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ413-427. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ427. && $$ DISCUSSION...Keyes AVIATION...Cropp FIRE WEATHER...GK/13  441 FXUS61 KALY 072344 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 744 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Mentioning the showers have ended and patchy to areas of fog developing tonight. /15 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The showers ended with patchy to areas of valley mist and fog developing tonight. 2) Temperatures will begin to warm again beginning tomorrow, though lower humidity will likely keep heat indices below dangerous levels in most places through the end of the weekend. 3) The next chances for thunderstorms come Thursday and potentially Friday with the passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure continues to move away from Cape Cod late this afternoon. High pressure will be ridging in over NY and New England tonight. The clouds will continue to erode from the I-90 corridor south and east overnight. Patchy to areas of radiational mist/fog will form with clear/clearing skies, recent wet ground and light to calm winds from north to south over the region tonight. Some of the fog may be locally dense in the valley areas. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure swiftly builds into the region behind the departing system tonight, reinforcing dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England. Dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place through at least Thursday morning with temperatures trending to and just above normal. That said, highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with low enough levels of humidity as to not pose any risks of heat-related illness. A few degrees worth of warming Thursday with higher dewpoints may challenge our Heat Advisory criteria, particularly throughout portions of the Hudson River Valley, but confidence is low in this element of the forecast. In fact, the latest LREF indicates a less than 10% chance for heat indices greater than or equal to 95F Thursday. Seasonable to just above seasonable warmth will then continue through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3... The next best opportunity for convection will be Thursday and potentially Friday as a series of boundaries track through the region. There continues to be some uncertainty pertaining to the timing of the boundary progressions. However, at this time, the best opportunity for thunderstorms looks to be Thursday as clouds may limit our instability for Friday. And while confidence is not yet high in the severe potential, medium-range guidance suggesting 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and 25-30kt of bulk shear hint at the potential for some organization of any developing storms. We will continue to monitor over the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thu...VFR conditions open the TAF cycle for KALB- KGFL with sct-bkn stratocumulus at 3.5-4 KFT and KPOU/KPSF are MVFR with cigs in the 1.5-3.0 kft AGL range with the rain showers recently ending. The skies will continue to clear from north to south quickly tonight with radiational mist/fog first forming at KGFL between 03Z-06Z/Wed, and then KALB/KPOU between 06Z-09Z/Wed and KPSF 03Z-07Z/WED. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will likely develop in the mist/fog at all the TAF sites especially between 06Z-12Z/WED, and then an improvement between 12Z-14Z/WED with the mist/fog dissipating. VFR conditions will return with a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus in the late morning through the afternoon. The winds winds will become light and variable a 3 KT or less or calm early tonight. The winds will be light from south/southwest at 4-8 KT in the late morning into the afternoon with high pressure in control. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday:High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday to Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12/15 AVIATION...15  458 FXUS61 KILN 072344 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 744 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes from previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered thunderstorms are possible today. 2) Isolated storms will persist through mid-week before a larger system arrives near the end of the working week, reintroducing a heavy rain threat. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/KG along with a stalled boundary over ILN/s southeast counties will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. These scattered thunderstorms will occur generally southeast of I-71. Expect coverage of storms to be more limited compared to Monday. The combination of very moist airmass with PWAT values in excess of 1.6 inches and slow storm motions will lead to the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out some isolated strong wind gusts. Storms expected to dissipate early this evening with the loss of heating. KEY MESSAGE 2) A weakening low deamplifies as it lifts north-northeast from the Lower MS Valley into the Southern Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. As this system clips our southerly counties a renewed chance for largely diurnal scattered thunderstorms will be observed Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, a shortwave embedded in the westerlies will track east- southeast through the Great Lakes late this week. An associated slow moving surface cold front will track through the Great Lakes region. This feature looks to impact our area Thursday through Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms once again expected in a very moist airmass. PWATs of 2 inches or more will offer the potential for heavy rain and potential flooding. WPC has placed a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Friday and Saturday across our area from I-70 southward for this risk. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main aviation impacts will be from the fog development tonight. Have at least an MVFR reduction at every terminal, with more impacts expected at KLUK with more fog development in the river valley. Fog lifts shortly after daybreak Wednesday, with VFR conditions expected the rest of the day. A mix of cu, mid and high level clouds expected during the daytime. Winds quickly subside this evening and generally remain around 5 kts or less through the taf period. There will be some variability in wind direction, eventually shifting towards the NW on Wednesday. Outlook...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...Clark  611 FXUS64 KHUN 072345 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 645 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1056 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through the week. - Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the lower 90s each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 An area of showers and thunderstorms extending from west of Pulaski, to east of Decatur, Cullman, and north of Birmingham was moving ENE 15-20 mph. Over model output today (especially the shorter- range) has not handled this convection well. Output however was showing this activity progressing to the east across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. With strong daytime heating pushing highs into the lower 90s, surface based CAPES have risen to around 3000 J/kg, with 0-3km lapse rates of 7.5C to 8.5C. This has helped to produce a few strong to severe storms. Strong to damaging wind gusts are the main threat from strong or severe storms, along with marginally severe hail. Convection should wane this evening with a loss of daytime heating. The GFS/LAMP MOS guidance has trended downward on fog development in the late night. Will follow this trend, but a few wind sheltered valley locations, as well as areas that received recent wetting rainfall would be more susceptible for fog. Muggy conditions are forecast with lows tonight from the upper 60s to lower 70s and light winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1056 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Upper troughing over the region should gradually flatten during Wed-Thu, with a zonal upper flow returning for the late week. In a similar environment with forecast precipitable water amounts of 1.6" to 1.8", daytime heating and resultant instability will bring scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the afternoon. Mainly "general" thunderstorm strength is expected, with a risk of strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. High temperatures for the mid week should rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with corresponding heat index values in the mid/upper 90s. Shower chances should fade Wed night with a loss of daytime heating. Lows again should fall from the upper 60s to lower 70s. An almost repeat forecast for Thu with high temperatures again upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat index mid 90s to 101 degrees. The daytime heating and resultant instability will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon hours. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours again the main threat posed by the stronger storms. Lows Thu night should cool only into the lower 70s && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 902 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 The upper low finally gets pushed off to the east on Friday as a more zonal flow takes shape across the Southeast. This will limit the coverage in showers and storms on Friday afternoon. A weak cold front begins to drop southward this weekend. While this will not provide much relief to the warm and humid airmass, it will provide a more favorable area for showers and storms to develop. Therefore, medium (40-70%) chances of afternoon showers and storms are forecast both Saturday and Sunday. An upper level trough digs down along the East Coast on Monday. This will bring northerly flow to the local forecast area. As a result, only low chances for precip is forecast on Monday. Throughout the long term period, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions have prevailed early this evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms over NW AL. Left VCTS as prevailing for now but will likely amend once this activity dies down with the loss of daytime heating. Additional thunderstorms are forecast tomorrow afternoon with medium chances (40-50%) peaking near the end of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....GH AVIATION...25  743 FXUS65 KSLC 072346 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 546 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1050 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... - High based showers and thunderstorms will develop over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming late this afternoon into the evening, with any storms that develop capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts, with the threat returning Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions over some southern Utah valleys this afternoon. The threat of critical fire weather conditions will expand into the mountains of southern Utah for Wednesday. - There is increasing confidence that a notable heat wave will develop over the weekend, with many valleys forecast to see HeatRisk values in the red (major) range, and some northern Utah valleys seeing values in the purple (extreme) range Saturday into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1050 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... A broad area of high pressure is centered over the central United States this morning, with Utah and southwest Wyoming under a breezy southwest flow on the back side of this feature, enhanced by some shortwave energy moving over the top of the ridge. Highs today will be similar to yesterday, with maxes running up to 5F above seasonal normals. Though the southwest flow is drawing some moisture northward, relative humidities will still be low enough in some valleys of southern Utah to combine with the breezy winds to result in areas of critical fire weather conditions. Guidance continues to indicate a setup favorable for another round of strong to severe convection for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon. A shortwave is expected to move over northern portions of the area late this afternoon into the early evening with some decent jet support providing upper level divergence. Combined with anticipated bulk effective shear of 30-40 kts, this has the potential to bring a bit of more organized convection. Given the high based nature of these storms, primary threat will be strong, gusty outflow winds and isolated dry lightning. However, cannot rule out some hail. Overall, have increased POPs a bit over northern Utah to account for the threat and extended the mentionable POPs into the first part of the overnight hours given model trends. With the central US ridge expected to weaken tomorrow, the flow aloft over the area is expected to have more of a westerly component, tapping into a dry slot over the California coast. This will drop relative humidities from southwest to northeast over the forecast area, resulting in more widespread critical fire weather conditions as winds remain elevated. Some moisture will remain over parts of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, with more shortwave energy expected to move through during the late afternoon and early evening once again. This feature looks better defined than the one expected today, with a weak boundary in association with it, so if anything seeing better dynamics for tomorrow compared to today, though the main threat will shift slightly farther north. Drier air is expected to continue to move in through the remainder of the work week. By Friday, a ridge centered near southern Nevada will start to expand, before the axis shifts overhead Saturday and east of the area on Sunday. There is high confidence that this will bring some of the hottest temperatures of the season so far, particularly for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. HeatRisk forecasts show red (major) values for many valleys across the area, with perhaps the exception of the lowest southern Utah valleys. By Sunday, there is an increasing chance of purple (extreme) HeatRisk values for some northern Utahvalleys, including the Cache Valley and Wasatch Front. There is high confidence that these highs will challenge at least daily records, with some guidance indicating monthly records, and, in the case of Logan, all-time records will be in play. Predictably, this will significantly increase the chance of heat related illnesses across the area over the upcoming weekend. As the ridge continues east of the area early next week, there is increasing confidence that temperatures will move from extremely hot to just hot, with guidance showing highs "just" 5-10F above seasonal normals by day seven. Increasing southerly flow could also bring a return of moisture by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... KSLC...Northwest winds and VFR conditions will continue through 03Z. Outflow from storms over northwestern Utah arriving around 04Z will produce a couple hours of gusty northwesterly winds. THere is a 40% chance these winds gust in excess of 25 KTS through 06Z. There is also a 30% chance of a rain shower during this timeframe. Thereafter VFR conditions with southeast winds can be expected overnight through Wednesday morning, with a 30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms impacting the terminal Wednesday. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will wind down across most areas south of I-80 after 02Z. Another area of showers and thunderstorms moving out of Nevada will cross northern Utah late this evening, accompanied by gusty outflow winds potentially exceeding 30 KTS. These will diminish after 08Z leaving VFR conditions and light winds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon mainly across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 136 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon over portions of northern and eastern Utah. These storms will be high-based, particularly for northern Utah, and will bring the threat of isolated dry lightning into the early evening. Meanwhile, breezy southerly winds will combine with continued dry conditions over the valleys of southern Utah to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions. A drying trend will begin Wednesday, lasting through the upcoming weekend. With breezy conditions persisting, much of central and southern Utah will see areas of critical fire weather conditions for Wednesday before winds decrease for Thursday. Strong high pressure will build for the upcoming weekend, bringing very dry conditions and the potential for record breaking heat by Sunday. Conditions will become less hot to start the work week, with the potential for moisture to return by the middle of next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ492-495-497-498. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ493-496. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  769 FXUS65 KTFX 072347 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 547 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers continue along Central MT/Hi-line through the evening, with a storm or two capable of producing gusty winds, small to large hail, and localized flash flooding. - Better chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive Wednesday afternoon, with gusty winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall as the primary hazards. - Dry and hot conditions build in towards the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 113 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: The small shortwave will continue to track across Central MT/Hi- line this afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to develop as a result through the evening hours. Current mesoanalysis shows CAPE building towards 1,000 j/kg. Bulk shear around 20kts at the time suggests thunderstorms could struggle to become strong to severe at first, before better shear moves in late this afternoon. With the shortwave tracking east across the state, the thunderstorm threat will mainly be across Hill, Blaine, and Fergus Counties. One or two strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong winds and small to large hail. Very high PWATs of 1 to 1.2" across North-Central MT also brings a localized flash flooding threat for any storm that produces heavy rainfall. Behind this shortwave, a stable airmass settles in for the night and Wednesday morning. Hi-res models show ample low level moisture for the development of patchy fog across the Golden Triangle Region tonight into the morning. Though, this will largely depend on how much rain the areas receives today. Weak southwest flow aloft tomorrow will continue to bring in moist and unstable air into the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop along a cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and evening. Overall forcing and shear are better which gives better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. Severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard due to deep mixing and 1,000+ j/kg of DCAPE. However, these high based storms have all the instability being at the mid levels so I can't rule out isolated large hail. PWATs nearing an inch will also bring another heavy rainfall threat with a low end chance for localized flash flooding over burn scars and urban areas. Thursday through the weekend, an upper-level ridge will build in across the state, bringing drier weather and hot temperatures. Current forecast temperatures reach the mid to upper 90s this weekend. The stress impact from this ridge will largely depend on how much we cool off at night. Currently there's a 40-70% chance minimum temperatures of 65 degrees and higher Sunday and Monday. Ensembles hint at monsoonal moisture could come back next week with ridging, bringing a return for precipitation. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: One concern earlier today for the thunderstorm potential was the small lingering mesoscale convective vortex system this morning will limit surface heating and instability. Though it looks to be areas that got a little sun was able to rebuild instability quickly. However, the chances for strong to severe storms this afternoon will be isolated. For thunderstorm chances Wednesday, the north Central MT plains look to be the best corridor for strong to severe thunderstorms. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 08/00Z TAF Period Isolated showers and thunderstorms on-going across portions of Central and Southwest Montana this evening until 03Z. Potential for shallow fog/mist and MVFR conditions to develop between 11Z and 14Z in the valleys and low lying areas of North Central Montana primarily impacting KHVR. Thunderstorms Wednesday from North Central to Southwest Montana with a chance for some to be severe from 22Z through the end of the period possibly impacting KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN, and KEKS. - Akins && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 55 91 57 87 / 10 20 30 0 CTB 53 86 56 82 / 10 10 0 0 HLN 56 88 56 86 / 0 30 20 0 BZN 53 87 53 86 / 0 10 30 0 WYS 45 82 45 81 / 10 10 20 0 DLN 52 84 51 85 / 0 10 20 0 HVR 53 90 57 86 / 10 10 20 0 LWT 51 86 53 84 / 10 10 40 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  848 FXUS61 KBUF 072349 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 749 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Inserted low chance PoPs across portions of the North Country to account for lingering diurnally-driven showers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few leftover showers in the North Country early this evening, then additional widely scattered showers/storms possible across the Southern Tier Wednesday. 2) The next round of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected late Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A few leftover showers in the North Country early this evening, then additional widely scattered showers/storms possible across the Southern Tier Wednesday. Daytime heating/instability coupled with a lake breeze boundary triggered some spotty showers across the North Country during the late afternoon hours...some of which are still hanging on as of early this evening. These will gradually fade out this evening with the loss of heating and the collapse of the lake breeze boundary. Otherwise...dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday morning...with renewed daytime heating/instability and a developing lake breeze boundary to the lee of Lake Erie then potentially supporting some additional widely scattered showers and storms across the Southern Tier Wednesday afternoon/early evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...The next round of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected late Thursday through Friday. Mid-level trough and an associated weak cold front will pass across the central Great Lakes Thursday afternoon, where said cold front will eventually pass across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. Ahead of the feature, weak forcing will overspread the region, supporting a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon. A southwest wind will support a stable lake shadow to expand northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and therefor keep these locations on the dry side. As the front makes it further east and eventually crosses the area, expect widespread showers and a few scattered thunderstorms to pass southeast across the area. Due to the timing of arrival of the front being past the peak diurnal heating, the severe potential will be kept to a minimum. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few leftover spotty showers and brief/highly localized restrictions across the North Country early this evening should end by 02z-03z with the loss of heating. Otherwise...mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling and narrowing dewpoint depressions tonight... leading to the development of LIFR/IFR valley fog across the Southern Tier (including at KJHW) and some patchier IFR/MVFR fog across the rest of western New York...with the latter most likely to affect the KIAG/KBUF terminals. Any fog that forms tonight will then mix out within a few hours after sunrise on Wednesday...leaving behind predominantly VFR conditions for the rest of the day. The one exception to this will be across the Southern Tier Wednesday afternoon...where increasing diurnal instability and a developing lake breeze boundary may lead to the development of some widely scattered showers/storms and attendant brief/localized restrictions. Outlook... Wednesday night...Patchy fog with local IFR, otherwise VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms inland from the lakes in the afternoon. Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely at times. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... A light to modest easterly to southeasterly flow will prevail across the Lower Great Lakes tonight. Light winds will then follow on Wednesday as a ridge of surface high pressure settles overhead. All in all, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. An approaching cold front Thursday will cause southwest/west winds to increase...supporting the development of choppy conditions on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAJ/JJR AVIATION...EAJ/JJR MARINE...EAJ/JJR  809 FXUS63 KGRB 072348 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 648 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts of north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. - There is a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms (15-30% chance) and heavy rain (15% chance) on Wednesday afternoon and evening, primarily across central and east- central Wisconsin. Damaging winds and localized flooding will be the main threats, but isolated large hail and a tornado are also possible. - Monitoring the potential for excessive heat early next week as high temperatures rise into the low to middle 90s on Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak sfc trough across northeast Wisconsin early this afternoon. Dewpoints have been creeping up this morning and are comfortably in the low to middle 60s. Meanwhile, a weak cold front is draped across western Lake Superior and central Minnesota, with upstream convective clusters developing across the northern Plains that will eventually influence our weather over the next 24 TO 36 hours. Scattered Afternoon/Evening Storms: With further daytime heating, instability is projected to rise into the 1000-1500 j/kg range this afternoon over north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. Low level moisture convergence will be favorable for pop up showers and storms along a weak surface trough, with 3-8 PM being the most favored time period. Brief wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and heavy downpours will be possible with any showers today before dissipating around mid- evening. Wednesday Afternoon and Evening Severe/Heavy Rain Risk: Attention turns to late tonight when the upstream cold front sags into northern Wisconsin, bringing clusters of thunderstorms across northern Wisconsin late tonight into Wednesday morning. This first round should exit by late morning, but its evolution (coverage & timing) will help determine the severe potential for late afternoon and evening. There is potential for outflow to create an effective front over central and east-central Wisconsin, but considerable uncertainty exists how this will evolve. If the atmosphere can recover, potential instability from 1500-2500 j/kg and effective shear of 25 to 30 kts will support organized storms from 3-9 PM. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but an organized storm could also produce isolated large hail and an isolated tornado. Locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches is under a 15% chance, with the greatest potential across central and east- central Wisconsin. Excessive Heat Potential Early Next Week: After the threat of strong storms ends Wednesday night, the slow moving front sags south on Thursday, leaving only light rain potential over central and east-central Wisconsin. High pressure then moves across the area on Friday through the weekend. By early next week, we will be monitoring the potential for excessive heat. A potent sub-tropical ridge is expected to build over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes in the 95-100 percentile. There is a 60-80% chance of 850 mb temps greater than 20C on Monday and Tuesday, which would equate to surface highs in the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions will continue into the evening hours, with a few cumulus clouds hanging around with increasing mid and high clouds. A stray shower will remain possible over mainly northern WI through around sunset, but activity so far this afternoon has been pretty limited, so will not include at RHI. As a cold front slowly sags into the region, clusters of showers and storms and lower clouds are likely to impact the region from 09Z-16Z, with an additional round Wednesday afternoon/evening. Continued to use TEMPO groups at all TAF sites to highlight the greatest potential for storms, but timing details will need to be fine-tuned as exact timing of the storms becomes clearer. MVFR ceilings and visibilities (locally IFR) will be possible within the shower/storm activity. Winds will remain mainly under 5 kts tonight, then become south to southwest Wednesday morning, with a few gusts around 15 kts. Winds will shift to the north and become variable Wednesday afternoon and evening behind the front. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC AVIATION.......Bersch  828 FXUS64 KLIX 072349 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 649 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 639 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. - Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle. - Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday night) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Through the end of the workweek, a fairly typical Summer pattern will be in place across the area. A weak upper level trough axis moving through the Tennessee Valley will continue to extend southwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Thursday, but overall forcing will remain limited across the region. PWATS will be near average through Thursday, but a plume of deeper moisture will feed into the area on Friday pushing PWATS up to around the 75th percentile. Overall, the main driver of convective activity through Friday will be the normal diurnally driven seabreeze cycle. Offshore convection will be in place in the early to mid- morning hours along a weak landbreeze boundary each day. By late morning and early afternoon, the landbreeze boundary will shift back onshore as a seabreeze boundary. As the seabreeze moves inland, in response to temperatures climbing into the lower 90s over land, scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire up first along the coast. The seabreeze won't make it too far inland from the coast, but outflow boundaries from the initial convection will spread further inland and allow for additional convective activity. Boundary interactions between outflows and a developing lakebreeze around Lake Pontchartrain will further support additional convective activity in the afternoon hours each day. Rain chances will be near average in the 40 to 50 percent range through Thursday, but the increase in PWATS on Friday will support greater convective coverage and PoP of 50 to 70 percent. Severe potential will be low, but an isolated strong thunderstorm producing gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph and street flooding has a high likelihood of forming each day. Where it does not rain, seasonably warm conditions with heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected each day. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The upcoming weekend will see continued higher PWATS of around the 75th percentile as the tropical moisture that fed into the region Friday lingers over the Gulf South. Convection will be continue to be entirely diurnally driven as weak upper level ridging sits over the area. Much like the days before, the seabreeze cycle will drive our convective activity with storms offshore in the morning gradually developing along the coast and then moving inland as the day proceeds. Heavy downpours of around 2 inches per hour will lead to some localized street flooding issues and winds could gust to 30 mph at times with the strongest storms. Temperatures will be near average in the lower 90s and heat indices will rise to between 100 and 105 each day. Pretty much a rinse and repeat pattern from the days before. Monday is the more interesting day as a slow moving frontal boundary pushes southward into the region. Deep tropical moisture will still be in place over the area and moisture convergence ahead of the boundary will drive PWATStoward the daily max for this time of year with values of 2.3 to 2.4 inches expected. There is still uncertainty in the exact convective mode that will develop as this front sinks to the south, but convection will be less diurnally forced and more driven by the boundary itself. Model sounding profiles are moist adiabatic and very warm aloft indicating a high potential for very heavy rainfall to occur over the region as warm processes take hold in the upper levels. Rainfall rates of 3+ inches per hour are probable on Monday and flash flooding will be a greater concern across the entire forecast area. The severe potential is lower given a lack of both speed and directional shear, but some gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph could develop with the strongest convective activity. With high convective coverage and cloud cover in place, temperatures will also be cooler than average on Monday with readings generally remaining in the upper 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Most of the convection that impacted several terminals this afternoon has dissipated in the last 60-90 minutes and will not mention at the beginning of the forecast period. VFR across all terminals at issuance time, with quite a bit of cirrus overcast. The most recent runs of convection allowing models indicates little, if any, overnight redevelopment of convection. The boundary that went through the local area last night appears to be lifting to the northeast, and has likely moved north of all terminals except KMCB and KGPT, and should clear those in the next hour or two. Anticipate VFR conditions to continue overnight. Could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings as the cumulus field develops on Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered convection again expected to develop during the afternoon hours tomorrow and will use PROB30 for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Winds will remain from a WSW direction through much of the week and speeds will remain mostly around 10kt but a few days could rise to near 15kt. Winds shift to due south then to the southeast by the end of the week but remain around 10kt. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, mostly during the morning hours. A few may be strong producing erratic gusty winds and/or waterspouts, with locally hazardous seas. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...RW MARINE...PG  048 FXUS62 KJAX 072355 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 755 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Afternoon Isolated To Scattered Thunderstorms Today, Decreasing Chances Through the Week - Heat Advisory Wednesday (12-6 PM). Peak Heat Index 105-112 Most Areas. Major Heat Risk through the week. - Moderate Rip Current Risk Beaches Today && .UPDATE... Convection is beginning to dwindle as surface begins to cool. There are still a few boundaries and isolated thunderstorms trekking along I-10 where residual instability may support a few more showers or storms through 10 PM before activity completely fades. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. The big concern over the next few days will be the heat as convective relief will be much more limited. A new heat advisory will be in effect Wednesday during the noon to 6 PM window where Heat Index values may peak into the upper 100s as temperatures reach the mid/upper 90s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights for Today and Tonight: - Hot / above normal temperatures. Heat Advisory for coastal southeast GA. Other locations will see heat indices near 103-107. - Typical summer-time scattered afternoon/early evening storms High pressure ridge axis will remain just south of the local area across the Central/Southern Florida Peninsula and will continue a hot and humid Southwest Flow with scattered afternoon/early evening storms along and ahead of the Gulf Coast sea breeze which will meet the East Coast sea breeze along the I-95 corridor late this afternoon into the early evening hours before pushing offshore into the Atlantic after sunset. Mid level lapse rates remain weak and expect just a few strong storms with gusty winds 40-50 mph, frequent lightning and heavy downpours, but cannot rule out an isolated severe storm along the I-95 corridor where sea breeze mergers could produce brief wind gusts to 60 mph and/or funnel cloud/waterspout activity. PWATs around 2 inches will promote a quick 1-2 inches in the more intense storms, but overall heavy rainfall threat remains only low to moderate due to the storm motion around 15 mph or so. Temps will peak in the middle 90s this afternoon before convection and outflows from storms reach most locations, and peak heat indices generally around 105F, with some locations along coastal SE GA reaching around 108F, and will keep Heat Advisory in place, as any convection will reach these areas latest in the day. Above normal temps continue tonight with lows in the mid 70s inland, and upper 70s to near 80F along the St. Johns River and Atlantic Coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons - Lower convective chances Weak surface ridging will stretch across southern FL Wednesday. With the ridge to the south, the flow from the southwest will continue. However, with the ridge fairly weak the flow will be lighter than the last few days. The lighter flow will result in a slower progression of convection from southwest to northeast across area. The lighter flow will also allow the east coast sea breeze to move further inland that recently, likely reaching the I95 corridor in the afternoon. In general Wednesday will be drier, but the clash of the sea breeze boundaries over the I95 corridor, will result in greatest chance there. With lower convective chances, and a slower progression of the Gulf sea breeze, temperatures will be trend warmer, with the potential for heat advisory criteria heat indices increasing. The ridge will strengthen as it moves north over forecast area Thursday into Thursday night. With the ridge building overhead, subsidence will help to minimize convective chances. The light flow, and lower convective chances will again push heat indices near, or into heat advisory range. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential Friday and Saturday afternoons - Convective chances increase this period The surface ridge will remain overhead through Saturday, as it slowly weakens. The ridge will continue to suppress convective chances, especially on Friday when ridge will be stronger. The heat indices near or above advisory criteria will continue into Saturday day. The ridge will move more to the south Sunday into Monday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This pattern will yield a flow from the west. Convective chances will be greater Sunday, and likely on Monday due to the proximity of the front. It will not be as warm Sunday into Monday due to precipitation and cloud coverage, but still trend above average. The cold front is currently forecast to slide all the way to near the GA/FL line Tuesday. Convergence along this front will yield higher than normal precipitation chances. Temperatures will be near to a little below average Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... For the most part the afternoon convection is winding down at area terminals. However, there's still "untapped" instability lingering across portions of NE FL which may result in showers and isolated TSRA through 01-02z. Beyond that, VFR conditions will persist with light southwesterly flow overnight. Possible to have some shallow fog near at inland terminals as clouds scatter out. More limited convective coverage is expected Wednesday as upper ridging establishes over Florida. Still anticipate, a chance of showers is possible but confidence on timing right now so have only included VC SHRA at this time but expect a later sea breeze merger. Otherwise, southwesterly flow will keep the sea breeze from pushing beyond KCRG/KSSI/KSGJ Wednesday afternoon. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a prolonged southwest flow during the day followed by evening wind surges from the south to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters each day through the week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rip currents through the end of the week in the mostly offshore flow with afternoon/early evening sea breeze, while surf remains generally in the 1-2 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through Monday. A cold front is expected to move south into the area Tuesday. Lower than normal precipitation chances forecast through Saturday, then above normal for Sunday through Tuesday. Heat Advisory conditions will be possible each afternoon from Wednesday through Saturday. Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 97 77 97 / 20 10 10 0 SSI 78 96 80 96 / 30 10 10 10 JAX 77 97 78 98 / 30 20 10 10 SGJ 77 96 77 96 / 20 20 10 10 GNV 75 96 75 97 / 10 10 10 20 OCF 74 95 76 96 / 10 10 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225- 232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533- 633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for GAZ136- 152>154-162-163-165-166-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$  042 FXUS62 KTBW 072355 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 755 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast during the morning hours and then push inland and become scattered during the afternoon and evening Wednesday. - Drier air will move into the area late Wednesday into early Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 755 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms continue over the interior this evening, but these should be winding down soon with fair dry weather overnight. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along the Nature Coast south through Tampa Bay Wednesday morning, with more isolated to scattered convection over inland areas Wednesday afternoon. Then some drier air will move into the region limiting convection Thursday. Current forecast looks on track with no changes needed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 755 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 An isolated shower or thunderstorm will remain possible around the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY and RSW this evening, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail overnight into early Wednesday morning. Some MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in a few showers/thunderstorms around Tampa Bay late morning into early afternoon, then possible in scattered mid- afternoon into early evening convection at LAL, PGD, FMY, and RSW. Light and variable winds overnight into Wednesday morning will become southwest to west late morning into early afternoon Wednesday with gusty and erratic winds possible near showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Over the next few days, we can expect to see a deviance in the pattern that we have been in over the last week or so as dust from the Saharan Desert moves its way into Florida. Today looks similar to yesterday, as the southwesterly flow produced early west coast storms that have moved and developed further inland as the afternoon continues. Heat index values have also reached into the triple digits. After today is when the Saharan dust will move into our area, reaching west central Florida in the evening hours on Wednesday. This will reduce storm and shower chances greatly, though isolated showers may still be possible. With these reduced chances brings elevated temperatures, with heat index values potentially reaching up to 110 on Thursday. Over the weekend, a front will be pushing through that will limit the northward advancement of the dust, allowing for some showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern region of Florida. After this trough moves through, conditions will remain warm and dry as the dust continues to linger in our area. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Marine conditions remain pleasant outside of any shower or storm activity. Winds remain below 10 kts and seas less than 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of low level moisture remains in the area. Saharan dust will drift over south Florida beginning tomorrow before drifting further north as the weekend approaches. This will keep rain chances low and conditions hot. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 93 81 95 / 10 20 10 10 FMY 78 96 78 97 / 20 20 10 20 GIF 76 95 77 97 / 30 30 20 10 SRQ 79 94 79 94 / 10 20 10 10 BKV 75 95 75 96 / 10 20 10 10 SPG 81 94 81 95 / 10 20 10 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis  096 FXUS64 KMRX 072356 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 756 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 738 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day. - Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Currently, there are two areas of surface convergence that is focusing convection this afternoon. One over southern Kentucky into southwest Virginia and another over the northern Plateau. Scattered to numerous storms have developed there. PWs are from 1.7 to 1.8 inches with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Best theta-e ridge axis is over the northern Plateau. The 850-300mb mean wind is almost parallel with the west to east boundary over southern KY to SW VA. This area has the greatest threat for localized flash flooding. As this boundary sinks slowly south into northern Plateau/NE TN, there will be an increased threat there. The latest MPD also illustrates this threat of isolated flash flooding. Severe storm threat is limited to mainly the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee where DCAPES are the highest with values of 800- 900. Else where DCAPES are rather limted with values of 400-700. Mid-level lapse rates are also quite limited less than 5.5 degrees. For the remainder of today and this evening, an upper trough will remain across the mid-Mississippi valley with southwest flow over the southern Appalachians. Mid level water vapor loop continues to depict this upper low pressure trough quite well. REFS and HREF depicts scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon into the early evening hours. Noticed the latest radar shows an cluster of storms moving east northeast across northern Alabama which may move into southeast Tennessee late this afternoon. Besides the convection, low clouds and fog development are likely overnight with localized dense fog anticipated. For Wednesday and Thursday, this upper trough will slowly move east toward the region with southwest flow aloft remaining. However, the trough will weaken with the greatest chance of convection along and north of interstate 40. Overall, airmass changes very little so impacts from the storms will be similar to this afternoon's environment. For Friday into next weekend, a series of jet streak/short-waves will move across the Plains states, Ohio valley, into the mid- Atlantic Region. A frontal boundary will move across the region Sunday as well. Eventually a digging upper trough over the eastern United States keep the unsettled weather conditions with more widespread showers and storms. For early next week, upper trough axis moves east with surface ridging building into the Tennessee valley. Drier conditions can be expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Storms are currently isolated across the region. Storm chances at all terminals are low for the rest of the night. Some fog is possible tonight mainly near TRI. Not expecting fog to be as bad as last night since none of the terminals got significant rain today. Showers and storms are expected to be isolated near the terminals tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 72 90 / 20 40 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 71 87 / 30 50 40 70 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 70 87 / 40 60 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 68 85 / 40 40 40 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.&& $$ DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...McD  089 FXUS65 KPSR 072356 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 456 PM MST Tue Jul 7 2026 .UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures continue this week resulting in areas of major Heat Risk and Extreme Heat Warnings through Thursday across lower desert locations. - Isolated thunderstorms over higher terrain areas of eastern Arizona will send gusty outflow winds towards lower elevations of south-central Arizona the next couple days. - The weather pattern will become very favorable for moisture import and more widespread thunderstorm activity next week. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... Early afternoon objective analysis depicts a sprawling subtropical ridge over the SW Conus with one particular anti-cyclone center directly over central Arizona. H5 heights currently near 594dm will increase slightly to near 596dm Wednesday as the core of the high pressure system continues to retrograde towards the California coast. Model agreement on this evolution is excellent yielding very narrow spread in numerical guidance, and resulting in temperatures solidly 5F-10F above normal the next few days. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect despite hovering below daily records and only coincident with patchy major HeatRisk owing to the fact this episode is occurring during the peak of climatological temperatures. A gradual increase in boundary layer moisture will also restrict the amount of nocturnal cooling such that even morning lows only retreat into the 80s/lower 90s. While the direct passage of strong subtropical ridging would typically result in widespread subsidence, this will not entirely be the case the next few days. Upper level support in the form of jet level divergence will encourage deep convective updrafts over mountainous areas of eastern Arizona as low level 7-9 g/kg mixing ratios will be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm development. Sitting under the ridge axis and given the limited moisture availability, storms may be more isolated and short-lived this afternoon/evening, however DCape values in excess of 1500 J/kg will support locally strong, gusty winds and semi-organized outflow boundaries attempting to propagate westward. It's unlikely strong, gusty winds reach into higher population centers this evening, however HREF members indicate more aggressive storm development Wednesday with better organized outflows capable of longer duration propagation. There is also a distinct possibility of multiple organized outflow boundaries Wednesday evening, and it's conceivable boundary collisions could spark additional deep convection, though low level mixing ratios below 10 g/kg would certainly limit this possibility over lower elevations and high resolution modeling only partially alludes to this outcome. Regardless, some gusts 25-35 mph and localized blowing dust appears more likely tomorrow versus today possibly skirting the southern and eastern parts of the Phoenix metro. Thunderstorm activity may revert back to an isolated mountain event Thursday as the northern stream jet core shifts south in the Great Basin suppressing the more favorable divergence aloft into northern Mexico/SE Arizona. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... Above normal temperatures with at least high-end moderate HeatRisk is forecast for Friday, before gradual cooling and eventually a big uptick in monsoon storm activity arrives over the weekend into early next week. Forecast highs Friday are still ranging from 110-114 degrees across the western lower deserts, while lowering heights over central and eastern Arizona should allow for highs to lower to 108-112 degrees. Low level moisture is also shown to start increasing again as early as Friday with moisture streamingoff the Gulf of California. However, drier air aloft will dilute some of this low level moisture increase and it's likely to take a couple days for moisture and instability to increase enough for storm potential to ramp back up. Shower and storm chances are currently expected to pick up on Saturday across at least southeast Arizona with some potential for decaying activity into the south-central Arizona lower deserts Saturday evening/night. Starting Sunday or Monday, models are really setting up the region to become quite active as there is good agreement shifting the high center somewhere to our northeast. Guidance is favoring a very large ridge with record or near record H5 heights setting up over the Northern Plains by Sunday. The ridge is expected to be very expansive stretching as far west as the Four Corners area and as far east as the Ohio River Valley. As of right now, the large scale flow is likely to become blocked with this ridge lasting through most, if not all of next week. The expected large expanse and strength of this ridge should be quite beneficial for increasing moisture and storm chances over much of the Desert Southwest next week. Although uncertainty remains, especially with how much moisture and with any potential disturbances that are likely to move over or near our region, we are anticipating our first decent period of monsoon activity next week. It is too early to speculate on which days will be the most active, but NBM/WPC PoPs for Sunday are already as high as 30-40% over eastern and south-central Arizona. Once the monsoon activity kicks into gear, temperatures should also begin to dip closer to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1740Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major weather concerns are expected through the TAF period. Winds will continue to be out of the west through this afternoon and evening with a low chance of a brief easterly shift due to an outflow from the east. However, current analysis show the outflow weakening so confidence is low that it will reach the terminals. Otherwise, an established easterly shift won't be until just past midnight tonight, where periods of VRB may also be possible through the overnight hours. Tomorrow afternoon will be almost identical to today's with an early westerly shift and gusts in the mid teens. FEW mid to high level clouds will persist. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Some minor gusty winds will continue to be the main aviation concern throughout the TAF period under clear skies. Winds at KIPL will favor the SE through the afternoon before switching around to the SW this evening. At KBLH, winds will fluctuate between the SSE to SW. Overall sustained speeds will remain aob 12 kts, with some occasional afternoon/evening gusts near 20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds with isolated lightning over the far eastern districts the next few afternoons will be the main fire weather concern. Outside of any potential outflows, winds should favor light and diurnal trends with typical afternoon breeziness around 20 mph. Afternoon RH values between 10-15% will be common across the region. Overnight recoveries will offer only limited to modest relief as MaxRH values range generally between 20- 45%. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal through the middle of the week, with the lowest elevations reaching between 110- 115 degrees. A decrease in monsoon activity is likely late week, before picking up again and becoming more widespread by early next week. Moisture levels and humidities should also improve considerably by early next week, alleviating much of the fire weather concerns. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8PM MST Thursday for AZZ530>534- 536>551-553>555-559-560-562. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ562-564>570. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Ryan/Smith FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman