294 FXUS61 KCLE 080000 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the eastern half of the area into this evening. No significant impacts are expected. 2) The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late Thursday into Friday as a cold front moves across the region. Heavy rain is possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest satellite and surface observations reveal a weak surface trough lingering across the eastern half of the area this afternoon. Although some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening, especially near the OH/PA border, the overall intensity and coverage of the precipitation will be limited compared to the previous couple of days, given a lack of forcing and increased mid-level dry air. Thus, not anticipating any significant impacts with the rain, other than a few brief heavy downpours. The weak surface trough appears to linger into Wednesday, albeit a bit further east, limiting rain chances to mainly NW PA or along the OH/PA border in the afternoon. As was the case over the past several nights, weak flow and a moist ground will result in patchy to areas of fog tonight into Wednesday morning, particularly inland across North-Central and Northeast Ohio. KEY MESSAGE 2... Attention then turns towards the next low pressure system and cold front Thursday into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be approaching from the north along and ahead of the cold front Thursday night, but also from the west Friday morning as a shortwave tracks east along the front into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region. Will continue to monitor timing and location trends for this shortwave. Though we can't rule out a stronger storm or two with this system, heavy rain and isolated flooding still appears to be the primary concern with PWATs approaching or exceeding 1.80 inches. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR will prevail through the first half of the night as surface high pressure builds down from the north, but lingering low- level moisture and an inversion combined with small temp/dew point spreads will cause widespread mist and fog to develop late tonight. Trended visibilities lower in this set of TAFs compared to the 18Z set since confidence is increasing for widespread fog and mist in the 08-13Z timeframe. Rapid improvement is expected through mid morning Wednesday, with VFR through the day. Winds will turn light and variable tonight before becoming W to NW Wednesday morning and increasing to 5-10 knots through the day. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Generally good marine conditions expected through the week with winds of 15 knots or less. High pressure over the Central Great Lakes will result in a land/lake breeze tonight/Wednesday. Southwesterly winds expected Thursday ahead of a front approaching from the north. The front will be slow to pass with winds eventually shifting out of the north/northeast by Friday night. Next potential for showers and thunderstorms that could impact marine conditions is during the Thursday - Friday time frame. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kahn AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...10  382 FXUS64 KSHV 080000 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 700 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - The potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through this evening, especially along and north of I-30 with additional redevelopment elsewhere possible overnight and early to midday Wednesday across much of the region. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures will return Wednesday through at least the first half of the weekend, with drier conditions returning Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Scattered convection has quickly deepened and across much of Lower E TX, as what convection originated earlier this morning along a weak NW to SE H925-850 convergence zone along the base of of the weak upper trough extending from the Mid-South SW into the TX Hill Country, has built SW along an extensive outflow bndry into the hotter, more unstable air characteristic of MLCapes of 2000-3000 J/kg. Elsewhere, CIN is still holding firm across portions of extreme NE TX into much of N LA, where earlier morning convection has cooled and stabilized the air mass. None of the morning CAMs or 12Z deterministic progs have initialized well with the ongoing convection, although the greatest confidence for afternoon convection remains over portions of ECntrl and Deep E TX this afternoon, where weak convergence along the SW propagating outflow bndry within the aforementioned unstable air mass should result in renewed development. Elsewhere, mainly isolated afternoon convection is expected near this weak trough axis, once the CIN is able to weaken with added diurnal heating, and should diminish this evening once the air mass stabilizes. While the center of the weak upper low is progged to drift NE through the Mid-South tonight into the OH valley Wednesday, the attendant troughiness aloft should again focus isolated to scattered convection over the region, although the extent of development remains uncertain especially given the poor initialization of the various models. Did expand upon the slight chance/chance pops areawide Wednesday, although the greatest coverage may trend farther S and E as the key trough aloft begins to drift ESE into SE TX/Cntrl and Ern LA. This trough should exit the region to the E into the Lower MS Valley Thursday, thus returning hotter (above normal) heat and drier conditions to the region. This trend should continue into Friday, although weak ridging aloft is progged to expand W along the Gulf coast which could induce more in the way of weak afternoon seabreeze convection, as well as additional isolated to widely scattered convection farther N along the hot and unstable air mass that will should be characteristic along the Wrn periphery of the ridge. Amplifying upper ridging over the Rockies remains progged to expand E into the Plains and Midwest late this weekend into the start of the new work week, thus expanding the intense heat dome over these areas. However, the center of this ridging should remain far enough N of our region, but an extended E to W weakness aloft should sink S along the base of the ridge across the region Sunday through midweek, providing the focus for Erly wave convection that will be most active during the afternoon/evening during peak heating. The increase in cloud cover/resulting convection should result in afternoon temps slightly tapering back closer to the daily norms, with the convection providing some relief to the afternoon heat. 15 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 For the ArkLaTex terminals, break this evening, but focus perhaps later for KTXK with TS N of I-30 sinking S, but sundown may halt much. Otherwise, models look to get the day running with predawn to mid morning TS development along I-20. So we have VCTS KGGG to KMLU by 15Z. Meanwhile, KTYR may have a bout of heavy FG 09-13Z. S/SW winds will prevail at 0-4KT and then 5-10KT daylight with gusts to 40KT near heavy downpours. Upper trough will soon lift away and convection along with mid to late day on Tuesday. /24/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon across portions of Lower East Texas south of I-20. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 93 77 95 / 30 30 10 0 MLU 73 94 76 96 / 30 40 10 10 DEQ 70 93 73 95 / 10 20 10 0 TXK 73 95 76 98 / 20 20 10 0 ELD 71 92 74 94 / 20 30 10 10 TYR 74 96 78 97 / 30 20 10 0 GGG 74 95 77 96 / 30 30 10 0 LFK 75 95 76 96 / 40 20 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...24  593 FXUS64 KJAN 080005 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 705 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels of heat (limited to elevated) will return late this week and persist into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Through Wednesday night: For this afternoon at least, the forecast area is getting a temporary reprieve from the active convective pattern, but a semi-organized convective cluster over north MS is developing southward, and outflow from this system this should increase thunderstorm chances along the Hwy 82 corridor as we approach early evening. Any storms that develop should diminish later this evening with mostly quiet weather conditions overnight. Going into Wednesday, we may see greater diurnal storm coverage with the continuation of cyclonic upper level flow associated with the LMV trough. Thursday through the weekend: Rain chances will diminish for Thu- Fri as the subtropical ridge rebuilds over the forecast area. Accompanying the building ridge will be an increasing heat danger risk with H850 temps approach 21 deg C and low level flow developing a more westerly component. For now, we will message this threat with a heat danger graphic, but expect that a heat advisory will eventually be needed for portions of the area. Early next week: Global models have a had a strong signal for a shortwave trough rotating around the ridge and sending a boundary toward our area in the Mon-Tue time frame, and this could support a significant round or two of convective rainfall. Along with this, the heat would diminish to below dangerous levels. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 All TAF sites are VFR this evening and this will continue through the period. Cannot rule out some minor ground fog early on Wednesday./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 40 10 Meridian 92 73 92 73 / 40 10 30 10 Vicksburg 91 73 91 75 / 30 10 50 20 Hattiesburg 93 74 94 75 / 30 20 30 30 Natchez 92 73 93 75 / 30 30 30 20 Greenville 91 73 91 74 / 30 10 40 10 Greenwood 91 73 92 74 / 40 10 40 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15  582 FXUS65 KBOI 080004 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 604 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, mainly across the higher terrain of eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho south of the Snake Basin. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday across the higher terrain of central and southern Idaho. - Storms may produce strong gusty outflow winds, possibly moving through the Treasure and Magic Valleys today and Wednesday. - Hot temperatures through the week and into the weekend. - Breezy winds each afternoon, especially Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 245 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring monsoon moisture to the area today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected along the NV border this afternoon and south of the Snake Basin in Idaho. Isolated thunderstorms possible near Baker County this afternoon and evening too. Dry low levels support shower and thunderstorm outflow wind gusts up to 40-60 mph. Storms will lift northeast off the higher terrain south of the Snake River and weaken as they enter the Snake River Valley. However, gusty outflow winds are possible as storms dissipate in both the Treasure and Magic valleys late this afternoon and evening, with around a 10-20% chance of storms holding together into the valleys. An upper level trough moving into British Columbia on Wednesday will begin to push moisture to the east. This will limit the chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain of southern and central Idaho, although thunderstorms and outflow gusts may also drift north into the Magic Valley. A weak, dry cold front will move through Wednesday night and Thursday pushing the lingering moisture and thunderstorm threat to the east. Temperatures will remain steady on Wednesday, then cool a few degrees Thursday behind the front. The front will bring gusty winds to the area Wednesday night, continuing into Thursday across southern Idaho with gusts 20-35 mph. Low humidity with gusty winds will increase fire weather concerns. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 245 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026 High pressure aloft will begin to develop over the Great Basin come Friday, before expanding east over the Rocky Mountains and the High Plains. A trough over southeast Alaska will help keep our area under southwest flow aloft and the hottest temperatures to the east. However, lower elevation temperatures will still rise to the upper 90s/near triple digits throughout the long- term period. These temperatures will result in widespread moderate with localized major HeatRisk for this weekend into early next week. Each afternoon will feature breezy winds across higher terrain, with gusts to 20-30 mph. Come Monday, monsoonal moisture will begin to work around the ridge and across our area. The Grand Ensemble continues to show a strong signal for this moisture, with precipitable water values increasing to near the 95th percentile of climatology by Monday afternoon. With moisture values that high, the flash flood risk will have to be monitored (especially across recently burned areas), as the threat of showers and thunderstorms increases come Monday/Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 558 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Mainly VFR. High density altitude this week due to heat. Isolated showers/thunderstorms near NV border in OR/ID. Storms capable of 30-50 kt outflows, brief heavy rain, and potential for blowing dust. Localized terrain obscuration from wildfire smoke. Surface winds outside of storms: variable 10 kt or less. Occasional gusts around 15 kt through sunset. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable or SW 5-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. A 30% chance of storm outflow gusts to 20-30 kt this evening from dissipating storms. Measurable rain unlikely. Visibility reductions due to nearby wildfire smoke, with foothills obscured. High density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt through this evening, transitioning to SE-E 5-12 kt after sunset. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W to WNW 15-20 kt this evening. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-426. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ423- 426. OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....NF  650 FXUS61 KAKQ 080006 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 806 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the 18z TAFS Flood watch remains in effect for the Piedmont, central and southeast Virginia, and northeast North Carolina. The watch is in effect from 3 PM to midnight. A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) remains for Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Flood Watch remains effect for the Piedmont, central and SE VA, and NE NC this afternoon and evening. Widespread slow- moving showers and thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban, poor drainage, and other flood prone areas. Storms could potentially approach severe levels with damaging winds the primary threat. 2) Near-normal temperatures are expected for most of this week. Additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms added for Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A Flood Watch remains effect for the Piedmont, central and SE VA, and NE NC this afternoon and evening. Widespread slow- moving showers and thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban, poor drainage, and other flood prone areas. Storms could potentially approach severe levels with damaging winds the primary threat. Afternoon weather analysis shows primarily weak zonal flow aloft with subtle kinks within the flow. At the surface, a cold front is sagged across east-central VA to SE VA. North of the front slightly cooler temperatures are in place with temps ranging between the upper 70s to low 80s. While south of the frontal passage temps range in the middle to upper 80s to even low 90s. Along and south of the front continues to remain the best areas to see the potential for a storm potentially producing a strong to severe wind gust. However, the severe threat remains quite marginal given the bad lapse rates, weak DCAPE, and very weak shear. The only thing going for the storms is a hot and humid environment with MLcape values in excess of 2500J/kg. With a hot and humid environment in place the main threat today is the potential for Flash Flooding. Across the entire CWA (even behind the front) PWATS are between 2-2.3". These PWATS mixed with the modest to strong MLCApe will help allow storms to produce heavy rainfall potentially leading to Flash Flooding. The 12z HREF continues to lock in with ~30% chc of 3"/3hr primarily along and S of the I-64 corridor, with localized pockets of 4-6" possible. With the models remaining consistent the Flood Watch remains in effect for the Piedmont, central and southeast Virginia, and northeast North Carolina. KEY MESSAGE 2...Near-normal temperatures are expected for most of this week. Additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms added for Thursday. Through the much of the week and into the weekend a typical summer time pattern will be present with weak synoptic flow aloft and a hot and humid airmass at the surface. This will allow for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue. For Wednesday, the front will have passed through the area and temperatures will feel "slightly" cooler with upper 70s to low 80s north of I-64 and along the coast. While further south temps will be in the middle to upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will once again impact the area but should primarily remain sub-severe. The best chance for a stronger storm would be across the SW where the hotter temperatures are expected. Thursday looks to be the better for a chance of stronger to severe storms as a stronger shortwave is progged to move through the area and keeps storms slightly more organized. The main threat at this time continues to be damaging winds as a hot and humid environment will be in place with high temperatures in the lower 90s. Another front may cross the area Saturday with higher PoPs returning. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 805 PM EDT Tuesday... Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the area this evening, with ORF and PHF currently seeing light to moderate rainfall. With the more sporadic nature of this convection, timing thunderstorm development at the varying terminals proved to be a difficult task, so a rough estimate was put in place and will be amended as necessary. There was more minimal development expected near SBY, so have removed the PROB30 for TSRA for the time being, but again, will adjust the TAF as necessary if storms start to develop near that area. Guidance is suggesting that there will be some fog development in the piedmont that could creep into RIC's area. Have maintained mention of BR at RIC, but could see it other terminals, especially ones that see rain tonight. Otherwise, Low-end MVFR to IFR CIGs are expected to develop tonight through early afternoon tomorrow as flow becomes onshore. Light winds are expected overnight tonight, becoming east to southeast tomorrow between 5-10 kts. Outlook: MVFR/IFR cigs potentially linger Wednesday morning, especially along the coast. The best potential for showers/tstms Wednesday pushes farther inland with onshore flow. Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms return Thursday, with the probability 20% or less by Friday, and 30-50% by Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected this week. Light southerly flow becomes NE and briefly increases to 10-15 kt Wednesday morning. - Elevated winds and waves from strong thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon and evening. Benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Latest wind observations show light winds less than 5 kts that are generally onshore. Winds off of the MD Eastern Shore are a touch higher, around 10 kt. Seas are around 2ft for most waters, around 3ft in the northern coastal waters. Onshore flow continues through tomorrow on the north side of a slow moving cold front. Winds pick to around 10-15kt over all marine zones late tonight, staying slightly breezy through Wednesday night. Seas will be able to build to 3-4ft during this time. Winds turn SE Thurs then SW Thurs night and Fri, generally staying below 15kt. Seas stay around 3ft through the end of the week. There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Heavy rain is the main concern today and Wed, but gusty winds will still be possible. Chances for severe storms increases Thurs and Fri. SMWs will be issued as necessary. . && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar is down due to mechanical issues without an estimated time of return. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032- 102. VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ048-060>062- 065>069-079>090-092-097-098-509>518-520-523>525-528>531. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET AVIATION...HET/NB MARINE...AC EQUIPMENT...  782 FXUS62 KMHX 080009 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 809 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Heat Advisory has been allowed to expire. The forecast has trended somewhat drier overnight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A more active pattern persists into midweek, with showers and storms expected each day, some of which could bring gusty winds and heavy rain. 2) Another round of dangerously high heat and humidity builds mid to late week into the weekend. 3) A very unstable atmosphere develops in tandem with the high heat and humidity mid to late in the week, and could produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 740pm, there was an ongoing cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms impacting portions of Beaufort, Hyde, and Washington Counties. The storms appear to be hitting their peak, and should gradually weaken with time as the airmass gradually stabilizes with increasing inhibition. Meanwhile, there is another convective cluster near Raleigh that is generally tracking slowly east. The downstream airmass across our northwestern coastal plain counties is still unstable, but with increasing inhibition, we expect that convection to gradually weaken as it shifts east this evening. In light of this, it appears that we will have another night with a reduced risk of convection (like last night). PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: At first glance today had a rather similar setup across ENC compared to yesterday as weak upper ridging extends N towards ENC keeping the area under a hot airmass. With that in mind, initial thought was substantial coverage of showers and storms along and ahead of the sea breeze this afternoon. However, this has not materialized to this point. Current thinking is slightly drier conditions above 500mb noted on the 12Z sounding today compared to yesterday, paired with less instability (2-3k instead of 4-6k) might be the reason for the lesser coverage. Still, scattered showers and tstorms are expected ahead of the sea breeze as updrafts slowly saturate the air above 500, eating way at the "cap" aloft. Of note, near Alligator River and NOBX there is enough convergence to overcome the drier air aloft, and this region is still expected to see numerous to widespread tstorms. Weak shear keeps storms more "pulse-like" with weak steering flow making the storms slow moving and back building. With all this in mind, storms will be capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Where heavy rain rates linger, flash flooding will be a concern today. Tomorrow a backdoor cold front/seabreeze combo will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. Guidance continues to suggest PoPs remain around the 50-80% range as the back door cold front provides some additional forcing. Instability however should be less as more cloudy skies get in the way. SPC has portions of ENC under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather as well on Wed with damaging winds (40-60 mph) being the main hazard within the strongest storms. WPC has kept much of the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow as well. Beyond mid week, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with heat indices 100-110 in the forecast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Not much change in forecast thinking from Thurs onwards as low level thicknesses remain around normal values which places inland temps in the mid to upper 90s across ENC. With dewpoints in the 70s there could be widespread heat indices around 100-110 each afternoon from Thurs into Sat. Probabilistic heat risk shows a 60% + chance for reaching major heat risk values with the greatest risk coming on Thurs/Fri so additional heat advisories may come into play later this week. KEY MESSAGE 3...With the aforementioned high heat and humidity expected Thurs into this weekend, a very unstable atmosphere develops with the potential for ML CAPES to near 3500 J/KG each day, and SFC based instability between 4000-5000 J/KG. As is typical this time of year, deep layer shear will not be too strong, but any storms that can develop with some upper level support could produce strong downdraft/microburst winds and very heavy rain characterized by PW's exceeding 2". Will also be monitoring Sunday as the next potential front makes an appearance across ENC which could help to focus thunderstorm activity and bring more shear to the area. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TSRA activity continues to primarily impact areas of ENC east of the TAF sites, and it appears that the risk of additional TSRA will remain low the remainder of the night. Therefore, TSRA have been taken out of the TAFs until tomorrow afternoon. Another round of SCT TSRA appears likely again then. In the meantime, there may be another risk of sub-VFR stratus and/or reduced VIS tonight, especially for areas that saw rainfall today. Outlook (Wednesday night through Sunday): Beyond Wed, more typical iso to widely sct activity expected as ridging rebuilds into ENC so a much lower threat for sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... 15-25 kt SW winds this evening with 2-5 ft. Expect winds to ease close to daybreak Wed once again. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible across our waters again on Wednesday as a shortwave moves through bringing a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas. Outlook (Wednesday through Sunday): Weakening front moves into the waters on Wed, though as is typical in July, the front appears to wash out, with any N'rly flow behind it short lived with return flow developing Wed evening. SW'rly winds look to strengthen some on Thurs/Fri as a thermal trough strengthens across the area bringing our next potential threat for SCA's to the waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/RCF/RJ AVIATION...RM/RCF MARINE...RCF/RJ  796 FXUS63 KMKX 080009 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 709 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main hazards. Locally heavy rain and urban and small stream flooding will be possible well into the night. - A continuation of scattered storms or redevelopment is forecast for Thursday. Locally heavy rain and urban and small stream flooding will remain possible. - Hot and muggy conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 709 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet weather will continue for the evening and overnight hours under the influence of surface high pressure centered to the south of the forecast area. Scattered cumulus early this evening will diminish, with few to scattered high clouds expected overnight. Temps are expected to be within a few degrees of normal overnight. In all, the forecast looks on track for the evening and overnight hours. DDV && .SHORT TERM... Issued 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Tonight through Friday: A pleasant and seasonal summer day will continue this afternoon with a lake breeze moving wwd into the inland counties. High pressure will shift se of the area tnt while a sfc trough develops from the central high plains into srn MN. Low to mid level warm, moist advection north of this feature will support clusters of thunderstorms from the nrn Great Plains into the nrn half of WI through Wed AM. For later Wed afternoon and night the sfc trough/cold front will slowly sag sewd toward srn WI with an upstream and slow moving shortwave trough approaching. The shortwave trough and cold front will slowly pass on Thu. MLCAPE will build to 1300-1800 J/KG by late Wed afternoon with effective shear around 20 kts. CAMs and deterministic models still have some timing differences but there has been a quicker trend for the onset of storms. A low end severe threat for damaging winds and large hail is forecast mainly north of Madison and Milwaukee. For later in the evening and overnight, more of a locally heavy rain and urban and small stream flood potential will exist. This is supported by a wly 25 kt low level jet and associated thetae advection within the thermal ridge and the approaching weak shortwave trough. This is in conjunction with PWATs of 1.5-2.0 inches and weak corfidi vectors. The CAMs and model QPF suggest the flood threat should remain isolated. Ongoing scattered storms and additional storms are then expected on Thu with the passage of the cold front and shortwave trough. Only marginal CAPE is expected with rather weak effective shear continuing. Thus the severe threat will be very low with more of a concern for urban and small stream flooding once again. Nely winds will bring a slightly cooler and drier airmass for Friday as high pressure builds from the nrn Great Lakes into WI. Seasonal temps and humidity is forecast. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Friday night through Tuesday: Synopsis: The slow-moving surface front responsible for Wednesday & Thursday's thunderstorm chances will be near or just south of the state line Friday evening. If the feature remains close enough to the border, it could trigger a few more scattered storms over far southern Wisconsin Friday evening before shifting south this weekend. Pronounced upper ridging will build into the northern Great Plains from the Great Basin this weekend, reaching maximum strength and amplitude over the Upper Mississippi Valley early next week. With the center of the ridge in close proximity, large-scale subsidence will keep conditions dry from the weekend through the conclusion of the long term period. Beneath the subsidence, south to southwesterly low level winds will advect a very warm Great Plains air mass into the area. Heat will thus return to southern Wisconsin from the weekend into early next week. Elevated humidity will accompany the hot temperatures. Friday Evening: Could see a few scattered storms in far southern Wisconsin (along/south of I-94 & US-18) if a slow-moving surface front remains close enough to the state line. Precise frontal progression up to this point in the period will be heavily driven by afternoon/evening thunderstorms & attendant outflows on Wednesday and Thursday, which thus makes it difficult to know where exactly it will set up at this time. Most available guidance suggests it will be far enough south to preclude any thunderstorm development in southern Wisconsin Friday evening, though there are a few solutions hinting that the front could remain closer to the state line. Have thus maintained 15-20% precip probs from the NBM in the afternoon update, with further refinements to come as forecast confidence increases Wednesday-Thursday. Sunday through Tuesday: Hot and humid conditions return to the area thanks to renewed ridging building in from the west. Currently appears that afternoon heat indices in the 90s will be a good bet, particularly on Monday and Tuesday. How high readings reach and whether/not heat headlines will become necessary will ultimately depend on the depth and quality of moisture in place across the region, which remains a source of uncertainty this far out. Will be monitoring trends and refining the forecast as this portion of the period draws closer. Quigley && .AVIATION... Issued 709 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet weather will continue for the evening and overnight hours under the influence of surface high pressure centered to the south of the forecast area. Scattered cumulus early this evening will diminish, with few to scattered high clouds expected overnight along with light winds. A chance for shower and storms is expected to gradually increase from the north late Wednesday morning into the evening hours. Locations along and north of I-94 have the best chance for seeing scattered showers/storms tomorrow through the evening hours. A few strong to severe storms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours. Widespread southwest winds 5-10 knots tomorrow may become south to southeast by early afternoon near the lake. Scattered to broken cumulus around 5 kt feet is expected tomorrow, with some lower ceilings possible north towards Fond du Lac and Sheboygan by the evening hours. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure around 30.1 inches over Lake MI and lower MI will shift southeast into the lower Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley for Wednesday. Expect light south winds over the northern portions of the lake this afternoon, with light and variable winds to the south. Modest south southwest winds will then develop tonight and continue on Wednesday, as weak low pressure around 29.8 inches and an accompanying cold front approaches from the Northern Great Plains. Modest southwest winds Wednesday night will become northwest to north behind the frontal passage Thursday into Friday, with high pressure around 30.0 inches building into the the Upper Great Lakes region. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  753 FXUS65 KBOU 080008 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 608 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased moisture expected to bring an uptick in shower and storm coverage this afternoon and evening, with an isolated severe wind threat across the plains. - Higher probabilities of thunderstorms with a few strong to severe storms from the Front Range eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. - Hot temperatures arrive Saturday lasting through at least Tuesday with a minimal chance of any thunderstorms for heat relief. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 213 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Visible satellite imagery shows convective clouds have formed across the higher terrain today. In addition, it shows a decent amount of smoke in our CWA to the south of I-70. The smoke, combined with the heat, is helping to create unpleasant conditions outside this afternoon. The coverage of the showers and storms will be between 30-50% across our forecast area today. Dew points have remained elevated despite what the high resolution models had expected. KFNL, KLMO, and KBDU all had dew points in the low 50s at 1:15pm resulting in better instability than forecast. This may lead to more intense updrafts that lead to a few severe wind gusts from the foothills across the eastern plains. While some areas will see brief heavy rain, most areas will see little to no rainfall. The center of the ridge of high pressure aloft will slide southwestward Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow for slightly better 500 and 250 mb flow aloft each day resulting in deep layer shear between 25-35 knots on Wednesday and 30-40 knots on Thursday. With moderate east-northeasterly surface flow bringing in moisture and instability, strong to severe storms are expected each day. SPC has the eastern plains outlined in a slight risk for severe storms with damaging wind gusts the primary threat each day. The storms, clouds, and increased low level moisture will be able to cool temperatures as well. Highs on Wednesday across the plains will be in the low 90s with the upper 80s expected on Thursday. Instability will weaken on Friday as somewhat cooler conditions are expected. Shower and storm coverage will decrease to isolated coverage. An anomalously strong ridge will develop on Saturday and will position itself roughly over Wyoming to South Dakota Sunday through Tuesday. There will be very warm air aloft with 500 mb temperatures roughly -3 to -5 C over our forecast area during this period. This will suppress the chance for storms and cloud cover. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures will be well above normal. The interesting thing about the position of this ridge is that southeast winds look likely to develop across almost our entire forecast area. If this verifies, it will actually lead to moist, upslope flow across the plains and this will help to keep temperatures below 100 degrees in most areas. If the winds don't end up being easterly and keep more of a southwesterly component, temperatures may soar above 100 degrees across the I-25 corridor which may lead to Heat Advisories. To the west of the Continental Divide, the likely downslope, southeasterly winds will result in record high temperatures. Highs may reach the mid 90s in the Middle Park and the low 90s in North Park. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 606 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Current radar imagery shows outflows lingering near the Denver metro area as a few lightning strikes over the foothills. We expect shower and thunderstorm activity to diminish by 02Z-04Z and winds to turn to light SSW drainage at KDEN and KAPA, while KBJC stays more westerly to variable at times. We have opted to keep smoke out of the TAF for tomorrow giventhat winds aloft are expected to turn to the NW overnight which would help relieve smoke concentrations. Winds tomorrow will start out light and variable before shifting to the NE in the early afternoon. If a cyclone forms, KAPA would likely experience SE winds. Thunderstorms are expected to start developing over foothills in the early afternoon and will be tracking east and over the airports between 20Z and 02Z. The primary concern will be dry microbursts and gusty outflows, up to 35-40KT. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Danielson AVIATION...AA  783 FXUS65 KLKN 080009 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 509 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to slowly diminish in coverage from west to east across Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening through Wednesday * Temperatures will remain above seasonal values this week * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon from Friday through Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Isolated to scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue this evening across northeastern Nevada with the highest probability over Elko county. From remote observation platforms, these storms have had been a mix of mostly wet with a few dry ones out there with storm speeds of 10 to 15 mph. Look for lows in the 50s and 60s tonight. By Wednesday, models are showing the drier mass continuing its eastward push into the region. Precipitable water values will drop to a half-inch or less with the highest values across portions of Elko and WHite Pine counties, east to the border with Utah (greater than a half inch). Consequently, the highest chances for isolated showers and wet/dry thunderstorms will again be in northeastern Elko county. Highs will be in the 90s with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Thursday through the weekend. All models are showing the upper ridge retrograding to the west on Thursday before moving back east and building during the early weekend period. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected during this time frame but temperatures will be warming in response to building heights. On Thursday, highs will be in the low to mid 90s, but warming to the mid 90s to low 100s on Friday, with a few degrees of additional warming on Saturday. This is leading to minor to moderate HeatRisk impacts across northern and central Nevada with the increasing probability of heat headlines needed of portions of the area through the weekend, including Sunday. Though Sunday could see a degree or two of cooling, the main heat impacts remain. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Afternoon breezes to 20 mph will be possible over the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The PoP, weather, sky and wind grids were adjusted for the short term forecast due to fire weather concerns. Low to moderate confidence exists for PoP coverage tomorrow. Moderate to high confidence on upper ridge build late in the week, with high confidence on HeatRisk for Friday and the weekend. && .AVIATION... ISOLD -TSRA are expected across northeastern Nevada through the evening. Best chances for VCTS is at the KEKO and KENV terminals. Winds will generally light below 20 knots, though outflow wind gusts could reach 35 knots. Rapid reductions to CIGS/VSBY to MVFR are possible with the strongest storms. Expect additional storms tomorrow across mainly northeast Nevada with KEKO and KENV terminals with VCTS. VFR conditions will persist at all other locations. Winds will be light with gusts to 22KT possible AMD NOT SKED continues for KEKO due to communications issue. && .FIRE WEATHER... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of northern and central Nevada through the evening. Coverage is expected to diminish tomorrow with wet/dry thunderstorms mainly over portions of Elko county. By Thursday and Friday, afternoon temperatures will begin to soar into the triple digits by the weekend bringing moderate HeatRisk to the area. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86  005 FXUS62 KFFC 080010 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 810 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered (15-30%) showers and thunderstorms possible each evening, increasing through the weekend. A few storms may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph. - Low chances (15-25%) for daily afternoon thunderstorms and warm temperatures remain the main forecast highlights through this week. - Heat index values peak each afternoon between 95 and 105. Heat advisory for portions of Southeast GA on Wednesday && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Typical summertime pattern in store the next 48 hours with lower than climo pop chances, despite there being a mid and upper level low situated over the TN Valley and GA sitting in a what should be a good location for higher coverage. The lower coverage can largely be attributed to the warmer values in the mid levels with 500 and 700mb temps running around the 90th percentile combined with lower than average mid level dewpoints. Regardless, a few isolated shower and TS will be possible coinciding with max heating in the late afternoon and early eve today and again on Wednesday. With a slight SW flow aloft across the area on Wednesday, will be looking for pockets of mid and upper level moisture rotating northeast around the subtropical ridge which could help locally enhance shower and TS coverage. Otherwise, the random isolated to scattered development is in store. On the temp side, have issued a Heat Advisory for portions of Middle GA for Wednesday. Max temps are slightly higher on Wednesday in combination with a slight increase in Td values bring HI values up to as high as 108. As a result, have included many of the counties that reach 104 to 108 across that region. Peaking ahead to Thursday, and a Heat Advisory may be needed again for a similar location. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Afternoon thunderstorms will continue to linger in the long term, and their chances will slowly increase through the second half of the work week as a stationary front slides down across the southeast. This should provide the region with a source of lift and as a result storms will increase in coverage from scattered chances to likely especially across the northern part of the state on Friday. The approaching front and afternoon convection should bring us some relief from the heat though. Highs in the low to mid 90s with apparent temps in the triple digits will continue through Saturday before falling back into the 80s by the end of the weekend. The one saving grace here is that as storms become more numerous in the afternoon, radiation cooling will help prevent a number of sites across the CWA from seeing peak heat during the afternoon and temps may not rise as high as they would without them. Widespread severe weather isn't too much of a concern later this week, though plenty of instability will mean that at least a few storms will likely over achieve. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 809 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conds prevail all TAF sites thru pd. W winds become light overnight, 5 kts or less, then pick up tomorrow morning to 5-10 kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High for all elements CRS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 95 74 94 / 10 10 10 20 Atlanta 75 93 75 92 / 10 20 10 30 Blairsville 66 85 66 84 / 10 30 20 50 Cartersville 73 92 73 91 / 10 20 10 40 Columbus 75 94 75 93 / 20 10 10 30 Gainesville 73 93 73 91 / 10 10 10 20 Macon 7594 75 94 / 10 10 10 30 Rome 72 91 72 91 / 10 20 10 50 Peachtree City 73 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 30 Vidalia 77 98 77 98 / 20 10 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for GAZ074-084>086- 096>098-104>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...CRS  063 FXUS66 KMTR 080011 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 511 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Seasonably cool temperatures today before a warming trend begins Wednesday through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents today through Friday - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night) Seasonal to seasonally cool temperatures continue today into tomorrow thanks to a deep marine layer and expansive layer of marine stratus. The marine layer is forecast to remain between 1500-2000 feet through tomorrow as troughing continues to our west over the Pacific Ocean. Marine stratus will return across much of the interior Bay Area and Central Coast tonight with pockets of fog possible across the North Bay Valleys and along the coast. If you are missing clear skies today, you will have a better chance at seeing them tomorrow. Confidence is higher tomorrow that stratus will recede by late morning/early afternoon across the interior as surface high pressure strengthens and the marine layer compresses to around 1000-1500 feet. The marine layer will help keep much of the area seasonally cool with high temperatures in the 50s to 60s along the coast and 70s to 80s across the interior Bay Area. The one exception will be the interior Central Coast where temperatures are seasonal to seasonally warm in the 80s to 90s. Marine layer influence on the interior Central Coast is minimal with building high pressure across the desert southwest having a stronger influence on that region. Breezy afternoon and evening winds continue across mountain gaps/passes (the Salinas Valley, San Bruno Gap, the Altamont Pass) and along the coast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (Thursday through next Monday) The forecast begins to change Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure across the Desert Southwest retrogrades, becoming centered more over Southern California. This allows temperatures to warm up by a few (~4-5) degrees outside of coastal areas and the bay shoreline. For the interior Bay Area this results in temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with pockets of 90s in the far North Bay and far interior East Bay. The warmest locations will be in the interior Central Coast where temperatures look to be in the low 100s Thursday and Friday. The NBM deterministic is running closer to the 90th percentile for the interior Central Coast but even the mean NBM forecast keeps temperatures around 100. All that to say, whatever way you look at it the interior Central Coast will be hot on Thursday. Temperatures will remain fairly similar to this through the rest of the extended forecast as upper level ridging builds over California. High temperatures will fluctuate by 1-2 degrees but will largely stay in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s along the coast, 70s along the bay shoreline, and 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Long range models are showing early potential for strong upper level ridging to build across the Intermountain West early to mid next week. This is likely to bring above normal temperatures with initial guidance for Tuesday showing temperatures warming across the interior East Bay and interior Central Coast. This is certainly something to keep an eye on if not for the heat impacts but the fire weather risk. In addition to the hotter conditions expected in the long term, there is the potential for dry lightning Sunday into Monday. On the synoptic scale, upper level high pressure will more northeastward (towards the Intermountain West) Sunday into Monday while upper level troughing deepens over the Pacific Ocean. Our region is still primarily influenced by the upper level ridge, but, the deepening trough will result in stronger southeasterly flow across Southern California, Arizona, and the Gulf of California. This will bring a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California northward into California. PWAT values look to be between 1-1.5" Sunday into Monday which is approximately 150-200% of normal for this time of year. The highest PWAT values are currently forecast across the Central Coast, South Bay, and East Bay. At the same time, the 700- 500 mb lapse rates are between 7-8 C/km which are favorable for convection to develop. If all these ingredients are able to come together, then it is likely we would see high-based thunderstorms across portions of our CWA. Given the elevated nature of any potential thunderstorms, any precipitation that falls would evaporate before reaching the surface. The two most likely hazards would then be dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds. Hot and dry conditions this week will prime the environment for fire starts by further drying out fuels and making them more susceptible to fire starts if thunderstorms develop. Fire weather concerns are elevated Sunday into early next week as a result of the dry lightning threat. While the pattern appears conducive for thunderstorm development, there remains some uncertainty regarding specific details. The nature of these specific details may modulate the risk for a high-based convective event. This is a good time to stay tuned to the forecast as we move into the domain of higher resolution short term models and the forecast becomes clearer later this week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 502 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Marine layer stratus remains the main focus of the forecast. All terminals will develop a ceiling at some point tonight, with cloud bases in the MVFR-IFR category. Vicinity of SFO...The ceiling never cleared today, and the window is probably closed now as the stratus coverage is increasing. The ceiling will gradually lower from MVFR to IFR over the next 6 hours. While there is a good argument for a persistence forecast, I'm going to lean optimistic with a scattered window tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain WNW, decreasing through the evening before strengthening back to at least 20 knots sustained tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Clearer than the terminal for the next few hours or so before the clouds fill up the bay tonight. Monterey Bay Terminals...MRY never lost the ceiling, and it's close to returning to SNS. There could be some brief clearing this evening, however as the Monterey Bay is mostly cloud free. The more likely outcome is the convergence along the coastline will be enough to at least keep MRY under MVFR conditions before lowering overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 916 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Moderate to strong breezes are forecast across area waters, including the bays over the next 24 hours. Northwesterly swell between 6 and 8 feet will continue, with approximately 2 to 3 foot secondary long period southerly swell persisting through the week. While winds diminish to largely gentle breezes across bays, strong breezes and rough seas will persist through early Thursday across the Pacific coast waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday and continue into this weekend. This will increase fire weather concerns slightly as fuels rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. Given the combination of potential for dry lightning and dry fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest information. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Bain Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  269 FXUS61 KOKX 080014 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 814 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Improving conditions expected tonight will lead to a gradual warming trend through the end of the week. 2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday afternoon and evenings. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Wave of low pressure passes well offshore tonight allowing for drier air to filter into the low levels. Lingering light rain, mainly across CT and parts of LI, will end this evening. Dry conditions will return overnight and continue through Thursday morning. High pressure builds over the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will start to warm, but still remain below average with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The high pressure will shift to the southeast and offshore on Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs reaching near seasonable levels in the lower to middle 80s. The warmest day of forecast period will likely be Friday. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s. Max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures/heat indices will be lower for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The forecast heat indices on Friday are below the 1 day heat advisory criteria (100-104 for any length of time). .KEY MESSAGE 2... A weak shortwave aloft is forecast to pass across the northeast on Thursday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is likely to set up across the area. The combination of these features supports the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Modeling has differed in the placement of the focus for convection, but current consensus indicates the highest probabilities across the southern half of the area including the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. Showers/storms that develop in the afternoon may gradually work east towards southern CT and Long Island in the evening. CAPE values are not too impressive with forecast soundings indicating 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE away from any sea breeze influence. 0-6km shear is weak with on average of about 20 kt. This should limit severe potential and SPC currently only has the area in a general thunderstorm risk for Day 3/Thursday. A slightly more amplified shortwave trough axis is expected to pass across the northeast on Friday. This system should drag a cold front through the area late Friday into Friday night. The system will bring potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. The latest model consensus brings the highest probabilities to areas north and west of the NYC metro. Shear is a bit stronger averaging around 25-30 kt with similar CAPE valued as Thursday. Specific details on any severe weather threat are uncertain since this is still 4 days out, but CSU MLP does indicate a marginal probability for a severe thunderstorm. PWATs are progged to range from 1.75-2.00 inches both days. It is too early to determine if there will be any flooding impacts and WPC currently does not have the area in an excessive rainfall outlook. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The ensemble mean synoptic pattern across the CONUS indicates ridging across the west and NW flow/troughing over the east and Western Atlantic. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure willcontinue to pull away from the area tonight, while high pressure builds in from the west. The high then moves offshore Wednesday afternoon. Gradually improving to VFR from west to east overnight. Any additional precipitation will be limited to light rain or drizzle, mainly at the eastern terminals this evening. NNE to NE winds at around 10 knots with a few gusts to around 20 kt early, then gradually diminishing overnight. Winds will shift to the S/SW early Wednesday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of improving ceiling categories overnight may be delayed by 1 to 3 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday-Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday-Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet through 18z (2 pm) Wednesday due to lingering 5-6 ft seas. Seas will diminish west of Moriches Inlet tonight and then on all waters on Wednesday with high pressure returning. A frontal system passes across the waters late Friday into Friday night. Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists into Friday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS AVIATION...DW MARINE...DS  265 FXUS63 KPAH 080014 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 714 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily chances for showers and storms (ranging from 30-60%) are forecast through next weekend. Stronger afternoon storms are possible through mid week; however, severe chances remain less than 5%. Somewhat greater severe probabilities (5-15%) may creep into the Quad State area later Thursday through Saturday. Any storm will be capable of producing localized flooding through the weekend. - Patchy fog is expected to develop late tonight into Wednesday morning. Locally dense fog will be possible with visibilities dropping to or below 1/4 mile. - High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s through Wednesday, which is at or slightly below normal. Warmer temperatures (low 90s) Thursday and possibly Friday will likely yield heat index values above 100. Temperatures will cool down again for next weekend, into the mid to upper 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 An upper-level trough will linger overhead through much of the week. This will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm activity, largely during the peak afternoon heating each day. The overall severe weather risk is expected to be limited; however, pulse-type thunderstorms (typical summer thunderstorms) do have the potential to produce localized damaging winds. Overall flow in the atmosphere is expected to be too light (less than 20kts) to have much in the way of organized strong to severe storms. There will be plenty of moisture around, leading to very heavy downpours under any of the thunderstorms each day and possibly localized flooding with the slow- moving nature of the storms. The flow will flatten a bit toward the end of the week, allowing temperatures to warm and winds to increase across the area. In fact, shear increases closer to 25-35kts for Thursday into Friday (especially over southern IL and southwest IN), which will be enough to give the Quad State a little better organized severe weather threat. Damaging winds and large hail currently look to be the main threats from those storms along with heavy rainfall. The flatter flow will allow temperatures to warm up again, into the low 90s. The combination of warmer temperatures and increased humidity (dewpoints in the mid 70s) , will allow heat index values to exceed 100 degrees Thursday and possibly Friday afternoon. Over the weekend, upper-level troughing will slide overhead once again, allowing for a bit cooler temperatures and scattered afternoon showers and storms (30-60% chance). Flow is expected to decrease once again (20kts or less, especially on Sunday), so isolated severe afternoon thunderstorms will be the main threat again. Upper-level ridging will build across the central US for Monday into Tuesday, bringing a return of heat, but little to no chance for rain. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Patchy fog could develop overnight at the terminals with visibilities falling into the 2-5SM range. Winds will be light tonight increasing to around 5 knots on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible again on Wednesday with PROB30 mentioned for TSRA. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...AD  412 FXUS65 KFGZ 080017 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 517 PM MST Tue Jul 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue over portions of eastern and central Arizona today and Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, drier conditions are expected with only isolated storms over the White Mountains. Moisture begins to ramp up again this weekend and into next week. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon through at least Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...A ridge centered along the AZ-NM border continues to allow for favorable flow of moisture into our area, and storms are currently ongoing in eastern AZ. Storm intensity is slightly higher than yesterday, but still remains somewhat suppressed with warm air aloft. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and cloud-to- ground lightning are the primary hazards from storms. Localized downpours will also lead to a low, but nonzero chance for flash flooding over sensitive areas (burn scars). Hi-res guidance indicates potential for storms as far west as Flagstaff and the Kaibab Plateau in the late afternoon. Storms will diminish after sunset today. Similar activity can be expected tomorrow, though the ridge begins to flatten and introduce a drier westerly flow aloft. By Thursday and Friday, the flattened ridge centers to our west. This will push most of the convective activity to our south, though some storms will likely hang around the White Mountains each day. By the weekend, the ridge is forecast to strengthen and rapidly shift to our northeast. Confidence is increasing that we will enter a favorable monsoon pattern by early next week. Stay tuned for further updates on this period! Heat will also be a concern through the week. The primary concern is the lowest elevations of the Grand Canyon, where temperatures are forecast to exceed 110 degrees each day this week. Similar temperatures will be felt An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the Grand Canyon below 4000 ft through Wednesday, becoming an Extreme Heat Watch thereafter through Saturday. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 08/00Z through Thursday 09/00Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA east of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line through around 03Z then dissipating. Brief MVFR and gusty/erratic winds possible in storms. Another round of ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA after 18Z-20Z Wed. Winds are SW 10-20 kts through 03Z, becoming light and VRB overnight and then SW 10-20 kts again after 18Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/00Z through Saturday 11/00Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD storms possible SE of a KPAN-KSJN line on Thursday and Friday afternoons. Winds are SW-W 10-20 kts each afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Most areas will remain hot and dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over eastern Arizona. Isolated activity developing as far west as a Flagstaff to Payson line on Wednesday, then shifting to Heber eastward on Thursday. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wetting rains. Friday through Sunday...Hot and mostly dry. Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountain region on Friday, before activity starts moving back west and north Saturday and Sunday. Expect southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph on Friday becoming lighter at 5-15 mph and more variable on Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  786 FXUS62 KILM 080027 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 827 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 00Z aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... -1)Heat will continue to build over the next several days. The heat index values will become increasingly dangerous after the midweek period. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat will continue to build over the next several days. The heat index values will become increasingly dangerous after the midweek period. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Heat will continue to build over the next several days. The heat index values will become increasingly dangerous after the midweek period. And although no real thermal advection is noted Wednesday mixing is forecast to be a bit deeper for a few degrees of added heat during the afternoon hours. This is also forecast to allow inland dewpoints to fall a bit, but another Heat Advisory is anticipated. Higher dewpoints could pool along the immediate coast for HI values that flirt with warning criteria. Thursday through Saturday the ridge will flatten, which sometimes supports an abating of the heat. Not so this week as the increased flow in the low to mid levels actually leads to some weak and unwanted WAA. Temperatures will rapidly warm into the upper 90s after lows within a degree of 80 each day. Heat index values solidly in advisory criteria all 3 days and once again there may be a coastal vs inland gradient in dewpoints, highest east. A few coastal counties could meet Extreme Heat Warning thresholds (HI of 110 or above). Thereafter the massive ridging aloft moves west and we wind up in NW flow. This will curb the heat though perhaps not all the way down to climo. The vort-laden NW flow will also leave the area prone to rounds of thunderstorms that will likely be on the strong side as NW flow storms often organize a cold pool. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... No more activity is expected for the terminals tonight with predominant VFR. The only point of uncertainty is the large amount of rainfall the Myrtles got which could lead to some decent coverage of low stratus late tonight. Winds could go calm late inland as well which might bring the threat of fog, particularly to KLBT. Have only accounted for occasional stratus at this time but hopefully confidence will increase with the next TAF cycle. Otherwise, lower coverage for storms is expected for Wednesday with best chances along the sea breeze and for SE NC. Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sunday. && .MARINE... The Piedmont trough will remain in place through most of the period and be the dominant wind-maker as the Bermuda High is displaced eastward. Winds remain solidly SW save for the seabreeze acceleration. A slight westward jog off the offshore high will increase winds Thursday into Friday and less so Saturday. A brief window of advisory-worthy 6 ft seas is tough to rule out. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...MBB DISCUSSION...MBB AVIATION...LEW MARINE...MBB  944 FXUS63 KBIS 080030 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE 730 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms spreading across much of western and central North Dakota today through tonight. There is a low risk of strong to severe storms along and south of the I-94 corridor with this activity. - A cooling trend is expected through midweek, before a warming trend occurs late this week and into next weekend. - Very hot this weekend and early next week with temperatures above 100 degrees possible, and heat index values of 100 to 105. && .UPDATE... Issued at 728 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Numerous thunderstorms are developing south of I-94 and east of Highway 83 early this evening. The main hazard from these storms will be torrential rainfall, which may cause localized flooding. Classic setup for excessive rainfall from training convection through this evening with 850 mb moisture transport vectors pointed into mid/low level frontogenesis and perpendicular to Corfidi vectors. Anomalously high precipitable water and deep warm cloud layers also support very high rainfall rates. Recent CAMs favor backbuilding convection as far west as Lake Oahe through late evening, but there is uncertainty which side of the ND/SD border this could fall on. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues as a short wave digs across the main flow aloft this afternoon bringing chances for thunderstorms in North Dakota. There is a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorm possible this afternoon along the MUCAPE axis along the North and South Dakota border. Precipitable water around 1.5 inches will move across the region supporting high rainfall rates which have been observed in South Dakota this morning. Localized flooding is possible if thunderstorms train over an area for a couple of hours. Some of the CAMs show an area of strong thunderstorms developing in the southern James River Valley this afternoon. However the southern James River Valley had an MCV roll through the region so the environment may be a little worked over. The greatest risk for strong storms remain in South Dakota. Daily chances will continue across the state as multiple waves move across the region as Quasi-zonal flow persists. CSU ML program and NSSL ML Program does highlight a low chance of severe weather Thursday into the weekend. Thursday is now outlooked for a marginal risk for large hail and damaging winds. Severe weather chances will continue through the week due increased instability, due to warmer temperatures, low level moisture, and multiple waves. Temperatures are forecast to slowly decrease by tomorrow into the 70s and 80s before ramping back up into the 80s and 90s by the weekend. An upper level ridge is forecast to build back over the west this coming weekend supporting a round of hot weather. The NBM 25th to 75th on Sunday does range from the lower 90s to lower 100s for KBIS. The current NBM forecast for Sunday and Monday is 100 and 99. Thus, there is high confidence in hot temperatures for early next week leading to heat headlines. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 728 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Strong thunderstorms will impact south central and southeast North Dakota this evening, with heavy rain reducing visibility to IFR levels, gusty winds, and possibly some small hail. The strongest storms are likely to remain south of KJMS and KBIS. MVFR ceilings are possible across southwest and south central North Dakota through Wednesday morning, perhaps falling to IFR or even LIFR in the southwest. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally be easterly at around 5-10 kts. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Hollan  346 FXUS63 KABR 080037 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 737 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms (level 2 out of 5) is in place today. All severe threats, including wind of 60 to 75 miles per hour, hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter, and tornadoes will be possible. - There is also a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding (a level 2 of 4 threat) in place over much of the area today. The greatest chances for excessive rainfall will be over north central and northeast SD as well as western MN. These areas have already received 1-3 inches of rain from this morning's storms. These areas are expected to see an additional 1-2" of rain at least, with the heaviest rain expected in the evening. Areas that see multiple round of storms may see as much as 2-4" of rain in total. - A slight cooldown is expected Wednesday through at least Thursday, with widespread near-normal to just below normal high temperatures (low to mid 80s). Signs point to a warming trend beginning by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 731 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 was expanded across north central SD eastward into the James River valley to account for elevated convection across northern SD capable of producing hail. Best instability remains further south over the CWA and have seen convection trying to form west of Pierre. Have been adjusting PoPs this evening to account for radar trends. Will be watching the northern CWA for flooding potential as well, especially for those areas just north of Hwy 12 who received heavy rainfall earlier this morning. Aviation discussion has also been update below for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 As of about 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the low 80s with winds out of the north behind the front and out of the southeast ahead of the front. This front will once again be the focus for storm development late this afternoon into the evening hours. The storms from this morning have moved out of the forecast area, leaving behind some rainfall totals between 1.5 and 2 inches, localized up to 3 inches. This will play a role in flooding potential later this afternoon and evening. A low pressure system starts to move into southwest SD today with a nose moving into south central SD. Storms will start to form in this area of low pressure and along the front in central SD around 5 to 7 PM. The environment lacks low level shear but surface to 1 km SRH from the RAP is pretty good along the front. This will be supportive of tornadoes. Lapse rates are around 7-7.5 C/km and there is plenty of CAPE to support supercells with large hail 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60-75 mph. SPC has highlighted the forecast area in slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather with a 2% tornado risk along and around the front. The HREF shows storm motion in generally a southwesterly direction at 5 to 10 kts, so very slow. This, combined with PWAT values of 1.5 to 2 inches will increase chances of flooding, especially in east/northeast SD. There is potential for storms to become more linear and transition into a MCS with an increased chance for damaging winds. Storms are expected to last into the morning hours of Wednesday. The next big story of the forecast is a ridge that moves into our area from the west this weekend into next week. This will result in several days of hot weather. Highs Sunday through Tuesday are expected to be 10-20 degrees above average for this time of year with heat index values near or exceeding 100 degrees. This will put HeatRisk into the moderate to major categories, with portions of central and northeast SD reaching the extreme category both Monday and Tuesday. This will affect anyone. Make sure to keep a look out for signs of heat related illnesses, especially with outdoor events. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 731 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Areas of TSRA/+TSRA across central SD this evening will be affecting KPIR/KMBG. MVFR/IFR VSBY possible in heavier downpours, and cannot rule out GR (hail) as well. MVFR or even areas of IFR CIGs are forecast to increase across the region later tonight into Wednesday morning. These lower CIGs are also possible this evening across KMBG in TSRA/+TSRA. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...TMT  574 FXUS64 KCRP 080043 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 743 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 742 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts this week, with peak heat indices between 103-108 degrees. - Low chances of daily isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains through Thursday. Rain chances increase east Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A mid-level weakness stretched from Arkansas across Del Rio and over Mexico has split the ridging over the region and is allowing for a bit of an increase in lower to mid-level moisture today. This should help develop at least isolated sea breeze showers this afternoon and evening. Some Mexican convection is also possible late this evening into tonight, but if it does make it to the Rio Grande would expect it to hold pretty close to there, and not extend across South Texas. As ridging regains control tomorrow, mid-level moisture advection isn't quite as strong and would expect a slightly less active sea breeze, but an isolated shower or storm would still be possible. A better push of tropical moisture moves into the area late Thursday through Saturday with an associated mid-level disturbance trying to push into the area, mainly along the coast. This will provide a better chance for showers and storms, especially through the Coastal Plains and the Victoria Crossroads. Rainfall totals overall are not expected to be especially high, but with PWAT values of 2-2.5", some heavy downpours with localized totals around an inch would be possible, most likely in the Victoria Crossroads. Temperatures remain near to even slightly below normal - if it feels like we've been saying that a lot, we have! In fact the number of days with temperatures more than 4 degrees above normal May1-now this year is a fraction of what we've seen over the past several summers! (3-6 days across the area for this year.) A lot of this is probably related to much wetter than normal period we've had. Lets hope I didn't jinx it! Anyway - seasonal temperatures continue with highs in the 90s daily. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Heat index values generally range between 103 and 108 daily. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 742 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period although there is a 30 percent chance for periods of MVFR ceilings Wednesday morning. Southeasterly winds trend 5 to 10kts overnight, before strengthening and becoming gusty after 18Z Wednesday as the sea breeze shifts inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Gentle to moderate south-southeasterly winds (BF 3-4) will persist into midweek before becoming primarily moderate to fresh (BF 4-5), particularly across the southern bays and southern nearshore waters. Low daily rain chances will also continue through much of the week before increasing by late week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 93 77 92 / 10 10 0 20 Victoria 74 96 75 96 / 10 20 0 20 Laredo 77 99 77 99 / 20 10 10 10 Alice 74 96 75 95 / 10 20 0 20 Rockport 81 92 82 91 / 10 20 0 10 Cotulla 76 98 76 98 / 20 10 10 10 Kingsville 75 93 75 93 / 10 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 81 90 82 90 / 10 10 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...NC/91  054 FXZS60 NSTU 080055 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 155 PM SST Tue Jul 7 2026 .Discussion... Latest satellite data shows a trough to the north moving toward the Samoa Island chain. Model trends have been consistent in bringing this trough over the Islands tonight through Wednesday night. Additionally, a trough associated with a low pressure system to the southwest is forecast to merge with the aforementioned trough. This pattern will increase the potential for flash flooding, particularly on Wednesday. Expect widespread showers and variable winds to remain tonight through Wednesday night. However, thunderstorm development could produce gusty winds at times. As the low pressure system tracks east, a high pressure system building behind it will restore southerly trade winds through the weekend. Showers will diminish to scattered Thursday night and persist through the new week. && .Marine... Calm seas are currently observed as a winds have weakened across the area. Latest wave heights reported by the PacIOOS buoys range from 5 to 7 feet, which is below advisory criteria. However, thunderstorms expected later tonight may lead to hazardous ocean conditions. Hence, a small craft advisory remains in effect. Model guidance continues to bring a strong south swell into coastal waters on Wednesday. High surf and strong rip currents are expected to persist through Thursday before the swell gradually subsides over the weekend. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory Flash Flood Watch && $$ TM  178 FXUS62 KCHS 080057 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 857 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Messages have been updated to remove heat/humidity and strong to severe thunderstorms this evening. The Aviation Section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. The Marine Section has been updated to reflect ongoing conditions. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Hot and humid conditions will persist through much of the week. - 2) Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Hot and humid conditions will persist through much of the week. The heat and humidity will build Wednesday as ridging aloft strengthens. 850 hPa temperature are forecast to warm to 20-22C with low-thicknesses peaking 1437-1440 meters. These values typically support highs within a 1-2 degrees either side of 100 degrees. Dewpoints are expected to mix out somewhat (lower-mid 70s) during the afternoon, but dewpoint pooling (upper 70s/lower 80s) near/behind the sea breeze should push heat indices to dangerous levels across parts of the coastal corridor with max heat indices peaking in the 112-116 degree range for several hours. Farther inland, heat indices should generally peak 105-110 range. Given the above noted trends, an Excessive Heat Watch has been posted for the coastal corridor, including both the Charleston and Savannah Metro areas, with a Heat Advisory for much of interior Southeast Georgia into Southeast South Carolina. Only the area from Jenkins County to Hampton County look to fall short of the 108 heat index criteria for a Heat Advisory. Warming temperatures aloft will help limit afternoon convection with only isolated coverage expected. There are some CAMs that support a bit more coverage so this will need to be watched as some areas could fall short of warning/advisory criteria if convection becomes more scattered. Heat is expected to continue through the end of the week with heat indices likely around the 105 to 110 range and highs in the mid to upper 90s area wide. Heat products look to continue at least through Thursday and possibly into Friday with the highest probability of reaching advisory criteria mainly east of I-95 and closer to the coast including the Charleston and Savannah metro areas. While heat indices may not be as high as early week, the bigger issue will be long duration heat stress mainly along the coastal areas where heat indices might not drop to below 100 degrees until well into the evening and overnight hours with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Several days of intense heat and minimal cooling overnight has been reflected in the HeatRisk product with widespread Major (level 3 of 4) and a corridor of Extreme (level 4 of 4) along the immediate coast Thursday and Friday. Regardless of any heat products this will continue to bring a risk of heat-related impacts, especially to those more vulnerable to heat or those without adequate cooling/hydration. KEY MESSAGE 1: Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. The region will be situated between high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland through much of the week, with ridging the primary feature aloft. Larger scale forcing is lacking, but isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day largely due to daytime heating and mesoscale boundaries like the sea breeze. Coverage will be highest in the afternoon and early evenings, before dwindling after sunset with loss of insolation. While the environment favors mainly pulse-type convection, a couple strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with any storms, but flooding risk is low especially given the hot and dry conditions of late. Rain chances will likely increase Sunday into Monday as a more potent shortwave trough moves across the mid-atlantic. Expect storm coverage to increase Sunday afternoon compared to the normal summertime pattern. Storms will likely be focused along a sagging front that will slowly drift south with time. Given the increased coverage and maybe a little more deep layer flow, a couple strong to severe storms with damaging winds may be possible on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Thursday. However, an isolated shower/thunderstorm could impact any terminal Wednesday afternoon. Timing and confidence remain too low to mention showers/thunderstorms in the latest TAF issuance. Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be a risk for tstm impacts at the terminals each afternoon/evening, especially at KCHS and KSAV. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: The pressure pattern should support south-southwest winds between 15 to 20 kts, with a few gusts up to 25 kt near the coast this evening. Given the limited duration and spatial coverage of stronger gusts, have opted to keep local waters out of Small Craft Advisories. Seas should range between 2-4 ft, but slowly subside about a foot late tonight. Wednesday: A southerly flow regime will prevail with some sea breeze enhancements likely along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor where gusts near 20 kt will be possible. A typical summer time nocturnal surge will impact the area Wednesday night with south to southwest winds 15-20 kt. Gusts could near 25 kt at times, but durations do not quite look frequent enough for a Small Craft Advisory at this time. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 8: KCHS: 100/2016 KSAV: 101/2010 July 10: KCHS: 100/1986 KCXM: 99/1986 July 11: KCXM: 100/2001 July 12: KCXM: 97/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 7: KCHS: 80/2017 KCXM: 82/2022 KSAV: 80/1883 July 8: KCHS: 82/2016 KCXM: 83/2016 KSAV: 80/1990 July 9: KCHS: 80/1998 KCXM: 85/1998 KSAV: 80/1883 July 10: KCHS: 81/1986 KCXM: 82/1986 July 11: KCHS: 80/2016 KCXM: 82/2016 July 12: KCHS: 79/2020 KCXM: 82/1998 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for GAZ099>101- 114-115-137-216-238-240. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for GAZ217>219-239-241. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for SCZ043-044- 147. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for SCZ045-148>152. MARINE...None. && $$  178 FXUS62 KCHS 080057 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 857 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Messages have been updated to remove heat/humidity and strong to severe thunderstorms this evening. The Aviation Section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. The Marine Section has been updated to reflect ongoing conditions. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Hot and humid conditions will persist through much of the week. - 2) Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Hot and humid conditions will persist through much of the week. The heat and humidity will build Wednesday as ridging aloft strengthens. 850 hPa temperature are forecast to warm to 20-22C with low-thicknesses peaking 1437-1440 meters. These values typically support highs within a 1-2 degrees either side of 100 degrees. Dewpoints are expected to mix out somewhat (lower-mid 70s) during the afternoon, but dewpoint pooling (upper 70s/lower 80s) near/behind the sea breeze should push heat indices to dangerous levels across parts of the coastal corridor with max heat indices peaking in the 112-116 degree range for several hours. Farther inland, heat indices should generally peak 105-110 range. Given the above noted trends, an Excessive Heat Watch has been posted for the coastal corridor, including both the Charleston and Savannah Metro areas, with a Heat Advisory for much of interior Southeast Georgia into Southeast South Carolina. Only the area from Jenkins County to Hampton County look to fall short of the 108 heat index criteria for a Heat Advisory. Warming temperatures aloft will help limit afternoon convection with only isolated coverage expected. There are some CAMs that support a bit more coverage so this will need to be watched as some areas could fall short of warning/advisory criteria if convection becomes more scattered. Heat is expected to continue through the end of the week with heat indices likely around the 105 to 110 range and highs in the mid to upper 90s area wide. Heat products look to continue at least through Thursday and possibly into Friday with the highest probability of reaching advisory criteria mainly east of I-95 and closer to the coast including the Charleston and Savannah metro areas. While heat indices may not be as high as early week, the bigger issue will be long duration heat stress mainly along the coastal areas where heat indices might not drop to below 100 degrees until well into the evening and overnight hours with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Several days of intense heat and minimal cooling overnight has been reflected in the HeatRisk product with widespread Major (level 3 of 4) and a corridor of Extreme (level 4 of 4) along the immediate coast Thursday and Friday. Regardless of any heat products this will continue to bring a risk of heat-related impacts, especially to those more vulnerable to heat or those without adequate cooling/hydration. KEY MESSAGE 1: Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. The region will be situated between high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland through much of the week, with ridging the primary feature aloft. Larger scale forcing is lacking, but isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day largely due to daytime heating and mesoscale boundaries like the sea breeze. Coverage will be highest in the afternoon and early evenings, before dwindling after sunset with loss of insolation. While the environment favors mainly pulse-type convection, a couple strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with any storms, but flooding risk is low especially given the hot and dry conditions of late. Rain chances will likely increase Sunday into Monday as a more potent shortwave trough moves across the mid-atlantic. Expect storm coverage to increase Sunday afternoon compared to the normal summertime pattern. Storms will likely be focused along a sagging front that will slowly drift south with time. Given the increased coverage and maybe a little more deep layer flow, a couple strong to severe storms with damaging winds may be possible on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Thursday. However, an isolated shower/thunderstorm could impact any terminal Wednesday afternoon. Timing and confidence remain too low to mention showers/thunderstorms in the latest TAF issuance. Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be a risk for tstm impacts at the terminals each afternoon/evening, especially at KCHS and KSAV. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: The pressure pattern should support south-southwest winds between 15 to 20 kts, with a few gusts up to 25 kt near the coast this evening. Given the limited duration and spatial coverage of stronger gusts, have opted to keep local waters out of Small Craft Advisories. Seas should range between 2-4 ft, but slowly subside about a foot late tonight. Wednesday: A southerly flow regime will prevail with some sea breeze enhancements likely along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor where gusts near 20 kt will be possible. A typical summer time nocturnal surge will impact the area Wednesday night with south to southwest winds 15-20 kt. Gusts could near 25 kt at times, but durations do not quite look frequent enough for a Small Craft Advisory at this time. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 8: KCHS: 100/2016 KSAV: 101/2010 July 10: KCHS: 100/1986 KCXM: 99/1986 July 11: KCXM: 100/2001 July 12: KCXM: 97/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 7: KCHS: 80/2017 KCXM: 82/2022 KSAV: 80/1883 July 8: KCHS: 82/2016 KCXM: 83/2016 KSAV: 80/1990 July 9: KCHS: 80/1998 KCXM: 85/1998 KSAV: 80/1883 July 10: KCHS: 81/1986 KCXM: 82/1986 July 11: KCHS: 80/2016 KCXM: 82/2016 July 12: KCHS: 79/2020 KCXM: 82/1998 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for GAZ099>101- 114-115-137-216-238-240. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for GAZ217>219-239-241. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for SCZ043-044- 147. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for SCZ045-148>152. MARINE...None. && $$