445 FXUS61 KCAR 080101 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 901 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Tweaked POPs for early tonight based on radar trends. - Tweaked Key Messages for Timing. - Aviation discussion update for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wildfire smoke will remain aloft tonight and possibly again on Wednesday leading to milky skies, in areas not overrun by high clouds. 2) Increasing heat and humidity mid to late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wildfire smoke will remain aloft today into tonight leading to milky skies, in areas not overrun by high clouds. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Wildfires across Western Quebec have led to a decent amounts of smoke aloft across much of New England and the Canadian Maritimes. 500mb ridge over the Gaspe Peninsula and weak vertically stacked low drifting south of the CWA this afternoon has led to mostly stagnant flow aloft. The smoke trapped mainly well above 6000ft AGL is drifting and spreading around the region. High clouds across the Downeast into Central Highlands are masking the haze/smoke but overall with elevated smoke we saw milky skies today. This is expected to continue into tonight looking at the HRRR/RAP smoke models remaining consistent. Another round of smoke late tonight into tomorrow but confidence is low, but conditions begin to change with increasing moisture. KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity mid to late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Wednesday to Friday will be the warmest days this week. We are not looking at heat to the levels we saw a few days ago, as heat indices are expected to peak roughly 10F below what we saw, and cloud cover should limit direct sun. Wednesday will features highs generally in the low to mid 80s, with perhaps a few upper 80s in the north. The air will be relatively dry with dewpoints in the 50s, so heat indices Wednesday won't be any higher than the temperatures. Heading into Thursday, temperatures look about a bit cooler than Wednesday over the north, but a bit warmer than Wednesday Downeast. Highs over interior Downeast and into the Bangor region should be in the upper 80s Thursday. Dewpoints will also be creeping up into the 60s to near 70F. Heat indices Thursday won't be much different than the temperatures. Then on Friday, cooler, drier air works into the north behind a cold front, while Downeast may be just a touch cooler than Thursday, but there is some uncertainty based on how quickly the cold front can move through. Wednesday looks dry, but the possibility of storms exists Thursday and Friday. Tentatively, it looks like the greater threat of storms on Thursday is north of Bangor, while on Friday, the threat shifts more toward areas from Central Highlands to Bangor and then to the coast. It's possible the front will move through fast enough to where any storms are south of the area Friday. For Thursday and/or Friday, this doesn't look like a particularly potent setup for severe thunderstorms, but we can't rule out an isolated strong/severe storm, especially if the forcing can align with daytime heating either Thursday or Friday. The weekend looks dry with 70s to low 80s north and mid 80s south. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight...Mainly VFR for Aroostook terminals, though may see patchy fog. MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys Downeast terminals late, most likely at BHB. Confidence lower at BGR but added TEMPO for lower vsby in FG/BR. Light and variable winds. Wednesday...IFR/MVFR early at BHB and BGR in low stratus and patchy fog, quickly improving to VFR by mid-morning. VFR elsewhere. SSW winds 5-10kts. Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR, though patchy valley and coastal fog is possible. SW winds 5 kts or less. Thursday...VFR. MVFR possible Aroostook terminals in showers and possible -tsra. WSW winds around 10 kts. Thursday Night-Friday...VFR/MVFR in showers and tstms. W winds 5kts becoming NW 5-15kts Friday morning. Friday Night and Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts. Sunday...VFR. N-NW winds around 5kt. && .MARINE... Patchy fog again later tonight into Wednesday morning. Seas remain under 5ft and wind gusts remain below 25kts all waters through Wednesday. Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, there is about a 50 percent chances of SW winds reaching 25 kts or seas reaching 5 ft mainly from 25-60 NM ahead of a cold front. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the waters Thursday night into Friday. Winds/seas below SCA conditions this weekend with just some passing clouds. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTS/21/JS/JMM AVIATION...CTS/21/JS/JMM  388 FXUS63 KMPX 080100 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 800 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch for heavy rain and flash flood potential due to training thunderstorms tonight across central MN. - Isolated to scattered severe storms expected for west-central MN south of the heaviest rainfall. - Heavy rain and severe weather risk shift to eastern MN and western WI for Wednesday. - Drier and much warmer pattern expected this weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Tonight into Wednesday... The primary forecast concern continues to be the potential for very heavy rain amounts and localized flash flooding tonight across central Minnesota. There are several factors that point towards this being a prime environment for flooding; favorable soundings with long and skinny CAPE profiles, warm cloud layer depth over 12k ft, PWATs within the 99th percentile for early July, and relatively slow cloud layer winds parallel to the boundary. The one caveat is that many of the hi-res models have struggled to capture the morning convection that tracked across eastern SoDak and western Minnesota. While these storms may end up limiting storm development later today, the more likely impact is that we see the stationary boundary set up further south than what the model consensus has been up to this point. In fact, you are already beginning to see that shift with the some of the latest 18z model runs (including the HRRR and RRFS). Wherever this boundary officially sets up, will be the axis for the highest rain amounts overnight. As the LLJ increases tonight, efficient moisture advection and lift will occur on the nose of the jet (near the stationary boundary). As storms go up along the boundary, they will push east, leaving space for more storms to build behind them. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" are expected, with localized amounts of 4 or more inches possible within this zone of training storms. The HREF ensemble max amounts peak around 5-6". A Flood Watch has been issued to highlight this potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to training thunderstorms across central MN overnight. The convection this morning and afternoon should limit the overall severe threat tonight, or at the very least keep the majority of it south of I-94 withing the moist/unstable warm sector. The greatest severe threat would be damaging winds and large hail, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out given low LCLs. The boundary shifts south tomorrow, shifting the heavy rain and severe weather risk with it as well. This will put eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin under the main risks, with severe wind and hail the main threats. Depending on how far south the boundary sets up, southeast MN may be looking at a higher risk for any flooding given the recent heavy rain across the region just a few days ago. A Flood Watch is not as likely tomorrow, though it a short fused alert may be leveraged if needed. Thursday into Next Week... Any lingering rain should be mostly wrapped by Thursday, bringing us to a stretch of drier weather with upper level heights building overhead. There continues to be a strong signal for prolonged heat. Humidity is expected to be not as dramatic as our previous stint of heat, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will be the main talking point after getting past our active weather tonight and tomorrow. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 747 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Tranquil start to the TAFs as precip has dissipated across the entirety of the WFO MPX coverage area at initialization time. However, CAMs still portray a complex of RA/TSRA moving eastward from the Dakotas late this evening and through much of the overnight hours from west-central to east-central MN into northwestern WI. Fairly high confidence that all TAF sites north of RWF-MKT will see a combination of RA/TSRA for multiple periods during the first half of this TAF period, with conditions likely into MVFR and possibly IFR. After this morning round of convection, there is a chance of an additional round of RA/TSRA mid-to-late afternoon Wednesday, mainly for southern- eastern MN into western WI. The earlier timeframe has the better confidence, thus have used TEMPO for the earlier timeframe then transitioned to PROB30s for the later timeframe. Winds will also be tricky with the surface front responsible for the precipitation sitting across MN/WI throughout this TAF period. Speeds under 10kt expected throughout but the directions may run variable from time to time. KMSP...VFR to start with fairly thick mid-level clouds at initialization. First window for RA/TSRA looks to overnight, prior to and through sunrise (thus potentially impacting morning push traffic). Currently have conditions within MVFR but IFR conditions due to visibility in heavier rain and/or low ceilings cannot be ruled out. Clouds then remain in place throughout the day with some uncertainty as to whether an additional round of convection develops early-mid afternoon. Currently have that second/later round as a PROB30 and will need to see how models evolve that round. But, TSRA still viable in that afternoon round so have kept its mention there as well. Winds will remain under 10kts outside of convection, so it becomes a matter of quick directional changes with the surface front atop the area and convection outflows making for short-duration changes. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR chc IFR cigs in mrng. VFR aftn. Wind NE 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for Douglas-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Todd. Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for Benton-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...JPC  815 FXUS66 KMFR 080109 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 609 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...Updated the Aviation Section... .AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... Weak instability over far northeast Klamath and far northwest Lake counties may produce a few thunderstorms early this evening. A marine layer will likely keep North Bend/KOTH under overcast IFR/MVFR ceilings through most of Wednesday morning, with some gradual improvement to a scattered layer expected again during the late morning into the early evening. Farther inland, all terminals are expected to be under VFR conditions through Wednesday afternoon with one caveats. The marine layer will likely be strong enough overnight to bring MVFR ceilings to Roseburg/KRBG for a few hours around sunrise again. Otherwise, expecting typical diurnal breezes this evening and Wednesday afternoon into the evening. && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Monday, July 7, 2026...Moderate north winds continue south of Cape Blanco, which will maintain steep seas through tonight. The thermal trough intensifies Wednesday, with gusty north winds and very steep seas expected south of Cape Blanco, and areas of Small Craft Advisory winds and seas spreading north to Cape Arago. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but then returns with additional north winds and steep seas by late weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1206 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026/ KEY POINTS... * Low chance (10-15 percent) of thunderstorms from Crater Lake north and northeast this afternoon. * Typical summer weather continues through the week. * Gusty winds and very low humidities possible east of the Cascades this weekend. * In the long term, a pattern change may bring monsoonal moisture and atmospheric instability. In this outcome, East Side thunderstorms are possible early next week. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows an extensive area of marine layer stratus along the coast, which has burned back from filling all of the coastal valleys and much of the Umpqua Basin this morning. Also, cumulus fields have developed along the Cascade crest. Otherwise, conditions are mostly clear on yet another relatively typical summer day. Southern Oregon and far northern California remain under southwest flow aloft, between a trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska, and broad strong ridging over the Four Corners and Central Plains. This will keep the weather in our area fairly stable, with dry conditions and high temperatures around 5 degrees above normal for this time of year, but there are a few caveats. The first is a very slight chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon along the Cascades from Crater Lake north, and to some areas to the northeast. Some residual energy, moisture, and instability remain behind the departing shortwave from yesterday, and this has already brought some cumulus development to that area as early as 10 am this morning. Likely, nothing will develop, and if it does, it will be highly isolated with little impact, but it is, as we say, a non-zero chance. Second, we will see the passage of a dry cold front Wednesday. Little will mark the passage of the fronts, other than a strong marine push, as they will be dissipating or weakening quite a bit before even making it onshore, but we do expect some increased winds Tuesday and to a lesser extent Wednesday afternoon. Today looks like the breezier day, with slightly weaker winds but drier conditions Wednesday. Then, after a rather mundane Thursday, another dry front arrives this weekend, likely with stronger winds and continued dry conditions Friday and Saturday afternoons. There are some fire weather concerns that arise during these periods, as very dry air will flow in ahead of these fronts. Most concerns will be concentrated over the East Side, in particular southern Lake County and Modoc County, but other locations such as the Rogue and Shasta valleys will be breezy and dry as well. Looking beyond this weekend, model suites show the southwest flow strengthening aloft as the offshore trough digs slightly south and the ridge over the central US strengthens and builds north. This would essentially set up a classic monsoonal pattern that could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but it is far too soon to know the exact timing and location. We will keep an eye on this over the coming days and update as necessary. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  960 FXUS62 KTAE 080110 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 910 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 910 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances expected this afternoon. Chances decrease to more isolated activity the rest of the work week before increasing again early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures expected throughout the week. Heat advisory conditions (108 F or higher heat index) look possible this week. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The only update was a small increase in winds over the Gulf waters for the rest of tonight, averaging about a 2-3 knot increase based on latest CAMS guidance. Otherwise similar to last night, spotty convection will again start to form overnight near the coast and over the nearshore waters. Observed water temperatures at Panama City and Apalachicola are running a bathwater-warm 89 and 87 degrees respectively, providing plenty of warm moist air for late-night landbreeze-focused convection. && .SHORT TERM and LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Monday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Currently we are sitting in moist southwesterly flow, funneled between high pressure attempting to build in over Florida from the atlantic, and an area of low pressure well to our north being absorbed into the mean flow. This pattern is keeping PWATs near the two inch mark for much of the CWA. This combination of heat and moisture will keep us very close to heat advisory levels through the next several days. Expected apparent temperatures will be ranging from 101-105 for most areas, with pockets of higher values possible. The expanding ridge axis should begin to limit afternoon convection as the week continues, remaining in place through much of the extended forecast. Combined with a more zonal flow to our north, this will keep us in a similar-ish pattern of limited convection suppressed by high pressure. A return to a more active pattern is expected as we start next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 910 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The next 24 hours will be very similar to the last 24 hours. VFR conditions will prevail. Convective timing and expressions of confidence are the main TAF forecasting challenges. Convection will form near the coast and over the nearshore waters during the pre-dawn hours, bringing thunderstorm at least inside the southern portion of ECP's 10-mile range ring and possibly over the terminal. After sunrise, convection will start to favor inland areas such as TLH by midday. Convection may struggle to advance as far inland as DHN and ABY on Wed afternoon, so have left out any mention of convection for ABY. Convection near VLD will be pretty spotty and may not ultimately move across the terminal. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through Thursday, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bring lower, but more variable, winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Relatively low fire weather concerns, outside of high dispersions in our NE counties, will prevail the next few days. Afternoon humidities will be in the 40 to 50% range. Scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon with coverage decreasing the rest of the week, with only isolated storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest through the period but localized increases across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons. Dispersions will be fair to good. Main concerns outside fire weather will be heat indices possibly reaching advisory criteria Wednesday and Thursday with pockets reaching near 110 F. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A typical summertime pattern will remain in place today and Wednesday but lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely by the end of the week. Widespread rainfall amounts of less than an inch are forecast with localized higher amounts if a slower- moving thunderstorm passes over. No flooding is expected, although rainfall amounts will increase again by Sunday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 95 76 95 / 10 50 10 20 Panama City 80 92 81 92 / 40 30 20 20 Dothan 75 95 75 94 / 10 20 10 20 Albany 76 95 76 95 / 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 76 96 76 97 / 0 10 10 10 Cross City 77 95 77 96 / 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 81 90 81 90 / 20 20 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Wednesday for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Humphreys LONG TERM....Humphreys AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys HYDROLOGY...Humphreys  250 FXUS63 KIND 080113 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 913 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry through Thursday afternoon - Unsettled pattern with multiple opportunities for rain and storms late Thursday through the weekend - Heavy rainfall producing flooding and strong storms possible Thursday night into Friday && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 913 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Afternoon cumulus is beginning to rapidly dissipate as boundary layer convective processes cease. Winds are expected to become light and variable tonight which, along with clear to partly cloudy skies, may allow for some patchy fog formation. Debris cirrus continues to stream northward from thunderstorm activity over southern Illinois, and this may persist due to influence from an upper-level low. Fog potential is therefore maximized in locations that remain free of overhead cirrus. As of right now, this appears to be across our northwestern CWA from Terre Haute to Kokomo northwestward. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out elsewhere, however, since the cirrus may be thin at times. && .DISCUSSION (This Evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday with dry weather. A frontal boundary will drift into the area and become nearly stationary by late Thursday. This will bring a return to an unsettled pattern for late week into the weekend with opportunities for rain and thunderstorms. Upper level ridging will return to the region by early next week with warm and dry conditions developing. This Afternoon through Thursday Night High pressure exerting its influence over the region this afternoon as the deeper moisture plume has been shifted into the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. As a result drier air has filtered south taking an edge off the oppressive airmass over the last week. 18Z temperatures were generally in the low to mid 80s with partly cloudy skies. Much of the next 36-48 hours will remain dry for central Indiana as the aforementioned high pressure remains a primary influence. Fairly extensive cu field over the forecast area this afternoon but expect that to gradually diminish to the south through late day as drier air and subsidence advect in from the north. High clouds will linger overnight into Wednesday as the remnant upper level low continues to spin over western Kentucky and Tennessee. As the feature gradually weakens and moves towards the region...the moisture plume will pull back north slightly on Wednesday afternoon and open up the potential for isolated convection to drift back into far southern portions of the forecast area. Subtle surface ridging will maintain dry conditions through the rest of the forecast area through Wednesday night. Much of Thursday will end up being quiet as well as the upper level wave departs off to the east and leaves weak ridging aloft over the region into the afternoon. An increase in moisture and instability will introduce the possibility for isolated convection but the focus will turn towards a stronger wave aloft traveling in tandem with a frontal boundary that will eventually become quasi-stationary over the forecast area by Thursday evening. Deep convergence developing along the boundary and the expansion of a low level jet into the region will support widespread strong convection developing Thursday night with the potential for training storms in the vicinity of the boundary as the low level jet becomes nearly parallel. PWATs will surge to near 2 inches over the southern half of the forecast area with flooding again becoming a concern from efficient rainfall processes. Storms may carry a risk for damaging winds as well...particularly if the convection Thursday evening can become outflow dominant. At this point...greatest impacts from storms Thursday night will be focused across the southern half of the forecast area. Highs will return to the mid and upper 80s through Thursday with the possibility for a few locations to make a run at 90 Thursday afternoon. Friday Through Saturday Night Long range guidance depicts an active pattern persisting through the end of the week with multiple disturbances tracking through the region. Deep moisture remaining in place and sufficient forcing from the multiple waves will keep rain chances elevated through Saturday. Daytime heating atop the anomalously moist environment should promote moderate to strong instability each day. Meanwhile, slight enhancement of mid-upper level flow will support up to 30 kt of effective shear. A few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the period given the ample instability and modest shear at times. The greater concern late this week will be the potential for heavy rainfall. Highly efficient warm rain processes in addition to the expected multiple rounds of convection could lead to localized flash flooding. Precipitable water values over 2.0 inches are expected which exceeds the 90th percentile for climatology this time of year. Efficient rainfall rates combined with repeated storms will be the main threat to monitor for flooding, especially if training occurs. Sunday Onward Model guidance generally depicts a low pressure system departing early Sunday morning. Broad cyclonic flow across the region and lingering low-level moisture will support low chances for showers and storms. Upper ridging should then build in aloft late Sunday into early next week providing more tranquil weather. There is some uncertainty on how far east the upper ridge builds which leads to lower confidence in the forecast. If the ridge remains further west, subtle impulse riding the northern periphery of the ridge could promote MCSs or storm clusters propagating towards central Indiana. This scenario appears unlikely early next week, but guidance suggest this could play out towards the middle of next week as the upper ridge begins to break down. Increasing heights aloft and warmer 850mb temperatures advecting towards the region will lead to warming temperatures. Look for highs to reach the upper 80s to possibly near 90F early next week. Humid conditions combined with the heat may result in heat indices approaching the mid 90s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 718 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Impacts: - Patchy fog possible predawn Wednesday Discussion: High pressure has expanded across central Indiana this afternoon with drier air expanding south. Diurnal cu field in place but should gradually diminish through late day. High clouds though will linger tonight into Wednesday as a remnant upper low continues to spin over the lower Ohio Valley. Cannot rule out brief restrictions in fog predawn Wednesday at the outlying terminals but confidence too low to mention at this time. Northeast winds through the rest of the day will become light and variable tonight and Wednesday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Eckhoff AVIATION...Ryan/Eckhoff DISCUSSION...Ryan/Melo  551 FXUS61 KLWX 080123 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Flood Watch was cancelled as the flood threat has diminished across the area. Showers continue across portions of the area through late this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms is expected through this evening. - 2) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening. As of 18Z/2PM EDT, showers and thunderstorms were steadily developing west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Additional development looks probable into the central VA piedmont given towering cumulus along a stalled front. To the north, widespread stratus remains. Underneath mainly overcast skies, temperatures are gradually rising through the 70s (north) and 80s (south). The expectation is for the front to meander north to south, generally being repositioned by convective-scale processes and where cloud breaks occur. A weak wave of low pressure approaching western MD drifts east tonight, giving the front a reinforcing push to the south. A tropical air mass remains in place with precipitable water values staying in the 2 to 2.25 inch range. The tropospheric flow stays on the weaker side which favors slow and rather chaotic cell motions. Latest high-resolution models continue to focus for more concentrated convection along/west of US-15 until early evening, then north-central VA this evening. This generally marks where the Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for flash flooding today. With heavy rainfall characterized by intense rainfall rates and a threat for repeat/training convection, Flood Watches remain in effect. The watch may need to be expanded into NoVA. The most vulnerable spots would be areas hit by recent heavy rainfall over the past couple of days, as well as urban areas or areas of complex terrain. River and stream levels began low due to ongoing drought conditions. However, these have risen in some areas recently which makes them more vulnerable to future flooding. On the severe weather side of the equation, moist profiles and a lack of steeper low-level lapse rates or shear should keep the severe weather threat low, though a couple storms may produce locally gusty winds in the I-64 corridor. By mid-week, the parent frontal zone is expected to reach the Carolinas while stretching back up into the central Appalachians. As an upstream shortwave trough continues to shear on its eastward approach, the residual energetics from this feature will keep convection in the forecast. Any severe threat appears minimal, but some non-zero flood threat persists given recent bouts of heavy rainfall mainly near the stalled front over west-central VA. Owing to mainly east to northeasterly surface winds, Wednesday will yield below average temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with mid 60s to mid 70s for the mountains. KEY MESSAGE 2...Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend. A nearly zonal flow aloft is expected during this time while several upper-level disturbances pass through the area. A weak boundary overhead Wednesday will lift to the north as a warm front Thursday allowing for more warm and humid conditions that persist through the weekend. The lifting warm front could trigger thunderstorms mainly east of the Blue Ridge late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The combination of having the boundary overhead Wednesday along with the increase heat and humidity late in the week will cause daily shower/thunderstorm chances, with the highest probabilities for convection being in the afternoon and evening hours each day. The highest coverage of showers/t-storms may be Thursday where most guidance is showing a strong upper-level disturbance in the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Another weak boundary may move into the area during the weekend, bringing more unsettled conditions. High pressure will likely return briefly late in the weekend, then another vigorous shortwave may approach early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly MVFR conditions (in the form of lower CIGs) were being observed at the TAF sites as of 18Z/2PM EDT (though IAD was still having intermittent IFR CIGs). A gradual lifting and scattering of these clouds may result in a period of VFR late this afternoon into this evening. Thunderstorms were developing west of the Blue Ridge, with mid to late afternoon the most likely period for TS near MRB/CHO. This evening, as a ripple of low pressure glides along the stalled boundary over the area, TS may become possible in the metros. Confidence in coverage is low. Another round of low ceilings is expected tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds turn more easterly through the day with some diurnal showers and thunderstorms possible. Any stronger storm could yield brief sub-VFR conditions, though precip chances are much lower in the metros Wednesday and therefore not mentioned in the TAF at this time. VFR conditions are most likely for most of the time Thursday through Saturday, but a few showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. There may be a higher focus for strong storms Thursday. && .MARINE... Sub-advisory caliber winds are expected across the waters given weaker gradients through at least mid week. Any hazardous conditions are likely going to be tied to convection, lightning, and any accompanying gust fronts/outflows. Additional thunderstorm chances are maintained in the afternoon/evening forecast. Special Marine Warnings are looking less likely through Wednesday as most storms may stay west of the waters. Through mid-week, expect mainly east to northeasterly winds at or below 10 knots Southerly winds are expected Thursday and could briefly approach SCA levels. Some strong afternoon/evening storms are possible as a cold front approaches. A west to northwest flow is expected Friday into Saturday. The flow may turn onshore during each afternoon/evening. Winds should remain below SCA criteria most of the time, but a few showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, especially during the afternoon and evening. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Light onshore (east to northeast flow) the next couple days followed by southerly flow will cause rising tides over the next couple of days. This will likely result in near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline the second half of this week. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/DHOF AVIATION...AVS/BRO/DHOF MARINE...AVS/BRO/DHOF  710 FXUS63 KJKL 080126 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 926 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms through the week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. - Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility through the next 7 days, with a threat of at least isolated flash flooding each day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 926 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026 After an active afternoon of convection driven largely by varying outflows beneath weak steering currents aloft, the precipitation is waning quickly. Even so, a few rogue showers/thunderstorms continue to pop up at times. Will look for the quieter regime to continue tonight, with an overall decrease in clouds as convection lessens with loss of instability. However, confidence in overnight sky condition is meager. With enough clearing, fog could become widespread, especially where precip occurred. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 238 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Weak flow persists across the Bluegrass State this afternoon, with a closed mid-level and upper low over the Mid-South region and a weak quasi-stationary boundary/front located just south to the south and parallel of the Ohio River. Humid and moderately unstable conditions persist to the south of the front, and will likely serve as the impetus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, diminishing this evening. The relatively weak flow aloft will support somewhat slow storm motions, which could result in locally excessive rainfall and resulting high water issues. The aforementioned surface boundary retreats north of the Ohio River overnight tonight as mid-level flow increases modestly from the south and southwest ahead of the weakening/filling mid-level low to the west. This will keep low chances of showers and storms in the forecast, but where this is any clearing fog is likely to develop, especially after midnight and lasting into the mid-morning Wednesday before lifting/burning off. Expect little in the way of ridge-valley splits given the high humidity and little change in air mass. Mid-level flow will be a bit stronger over southeastern Kentucky Wednesday, but is not expected at this time to be enough to support organized convection. The biggest impact may be to help provide a bit more progressive storm motions, as high humidity and moderate instability remain across eastern Kentucky to the south of the quasi- stationary front/boundary, which is likely to be located by Wednesday afternoon between the Ohio River and Interstate 64. Would thus expect scattered to numerous showers and storms once again Wednesday afternoon into early evening before activity slowly diminishes with the loss of daytime heating. Isolated instances of flash flooding will again be possible where heavy rain moves repeatedly over the same area. The mid-level low continues to weaken into an open trough and crosses the area Wednesday night, supporting at least some shower/thunderstorm chance through the overnight. Where there is any clearing, expect widespread fog to develop once again with little in the way of ridge-valley splits in temperatures once again. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 302 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast. Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday, as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the Intermountain West. For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall, and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday. Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday, with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms were ongoing at the start of the period. They were bringing localized sub-VFR conditions, but otherwise, conditions were VFR. The precipitation will decline further this evening and my be largely gone overnight. Even so, it can't be guaranteed that there won't be something pop up. At this point, the probability is too low to include mentions at any of the TAF sites. However, as clouds decrease, fog is forecast to develop late tonight and last into Wednesday morning. This is forecast to bring generalized IFR or worse conditions, with the worst expected to be in valleys and where significant rain occurred. The extent of clearing will be a factor in the extent of fog, with clearing favoring more fog. Whatever fog there is will dissipate on Wednesday morning, possibly converting to a low cloud deck before leaving. VFR conditions then return until more showers/thunderstorms develop after daytime heating occurs. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL  999 FXUS65 KBYZ 080137 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 737 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. A few storms may be severe with hail, strong winds, and heavy rain being the main threats. - Trending drier Thursday, though a chance of showers and thunderstorms remains over eastern Montana (medium chance). - Very hot conditions this weekend into Monday. High temperatures in the low to mid 100s with overnight low temperatures in the 60s to 70s will increase the risk of heat related impacts. && .UPDATE... Fairly quiet evening but there was recently a severe t-storms near Broadview (which has since weakened) and there are a couple of additional weak t-storms near Billings. All of this activity seems to be a result of boundary interactions within an environment capable of sustaining strong storms. Mesoanalysis does not show any real focus for additional storm development and instability is decreasing as we approach sunset so expect storms to gradually diminish over the next few hours as they track west to east. Boundary layer is moist and we could see localized fog tonight. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move east through the area this afternoon and evening. With modest instability and wind shear, a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe over south- eastern Montana and north- eastern Wyoming with wind, hail, and heavy rain being the main threats. Currently, the risk of severe is greatest between 2PM and 11PM MDT. The one thing to watch is modeled atmospheric soundings suggest a mid- level cap may limit the extent of convection today. This is reflected in the latest High- Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model runs. Will have to see how the atmosphere recovers over eastern Montana after this morning's showers and thunderstorms. So far, a good amount of convective inhibition remains, but as temperatures warm, this will decrease. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast once again Wednesday afternoon and evening, however, this activity is expected to remain over and near the mountains and foothills initially with little forcing mechanism outside of orographics. By the evening, an approaching shortwave trough looks to develop additions showers and thunderstorms over south-central Montana that move east over the plains, gradually decreasing as they move east into the night. While good instability will favor a few strong to severe thunderstorms over portions of southern Montana and northern Wyoming, limited shear may inhibit thunderstorm organization causing them to be more short-lived. A bit drier air near the surface may also favor strong winds as the main threat, though hail and heavy rain remain possible with any thunderstorm that develops. Thursday looks to be a mostly dry day as the air mass dries out even more. With that said, a few diurnal showers and thunderstorms are possible over eastern Montana (medium chance). Friday into early next week, the focus turns to the very hot conditions that are forecast to develop over the region. Currently, high temperatures on Friday are in the upper 80s to 90s before high temperatures warm into the upper 90s to mid 100s Saturday and Sunday. Monday looks to be a bit "cooler" with high temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s. In addition to these hot daytime temperatures, overnight low temperatures are expected to remain in the 60s to 70s this weekend into early next week. This will provide little relief from the heat, especially for those without access to air conditioning. The one thing to watch is what happens with wildfire smoke. Should smoke aloft be transported into the region, this may keep daytime temperatures down a bit. However, hot conditions are expected either way, so plan now to protect yourself from the heat. With the heat, a few all-time record high temperatures may be challenged this weekend. Below are the current all- time record high temperatures at each of our climate stations: Billings 108F Livingston 105F Miles City 111F Sheridan 107F Baker 109F Next week looks to remain hot, but there are signals that monsoonal moisture and energy will return by the middle part of the week, re-introducing at least a slight chance of precipitation to portions of the area. LA .AVIATION... 00z Discussion. Isolated thunderstorms near KBIL and eastward will slowly diminish thru the remainder of the evening. Though coverage of this activity is isolated, the air mass is quite moist and localized heavy rain remains a possibility until ~06z. Localized fog is expected later tonight and this could impact TAF sites from KBIL eastward, but the risk is low (10%) at this time. Look for scattered thunderstorms again Wednesday afternoon. Outside of heavy rain and localized fog, VFR will prevail across the region over the next 24hrs. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060/091 062/091 063/096 066/103 070/106 072/098 071/094 22/T 20/U 00/U 00/G 00/G 00/U 11/U LVM 054/089 054/089 055/095 058/098 061/101 064/095 062/090 12/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 01/U 13/T HDN 059/091 060/091 061/097 063/104 067/107 070/100 069/096 32/U 21/U 10/U 00/G 00/G 00/U 12/W MLS 057/087 061/090 061/097 067/103 071/106 074/101 071/096 41/U 21/U 00/U 00/G 00/G 10/G 11/U 4BQ 060/089 061/090 061/096 067/103 071/106 074/101 070/096 42/U 22/T 20/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 11/U BHK 052/083 057/089 057/093 062/101 066/103 068/100 065/094 40/B 12/T 10/U 10/G 00/G 00/U 01/U SHR 056/087 056/088 056/095 061/101 064/106 069/099 067/095 44/T 33/T 10/U 00/G 00/G 00/U 13/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  324 FXHW60 PHFO 080148 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 348 PM HST Tue Jul 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce breezy to windy trades for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Showers will primarily focus along windward and mauka areas. However, an increase in shower coverage and frequency is anticipated later this week and into the weekend, with higher rain accumulations likely occurring during the nocturnal hours. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and satellite imagery shower isolated to scattered showers moving into windward and mauka areas on the trade wind flow this afternoon, with more moisture focused over the eastern end of the state. This has been the short term trend with consistent rainfall over the northeast-facing coastal areas of the Big Island bringing 2 to 3+ inches of rain to those areas in the last 24 hours, whereas elsewhere across the state, windward areas have only seen a few hundredths to a couple of tenths of an inch over the same period. Strong high pressure centered far north of the state will continue to drive breezy to windy trades across the region through the weekend. The typical windier areas across Maui County and the Big Island continue to flirt with Wind Advisory conditions this afternoon, with a few sites touching 30 mph sustained at times and consistently gusting to 40 mph. Elsewhere, winds have been around 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. Looking aloft, Hawaii will remain under weak ridging through early next week as it lies between two upper-level lows, one to the east, the other to the west. The breezy to windy trades will generally focus clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas throughout the period. However, batches of deep tropical moisture will move across the area Wednesday night through Friday night, again Sunday into Monday, and more will follow next week. As these batches of deeper moisture move through with precipitable water values reaching 1.5 to 2 inches, the inversion will weaken and lift, increasing shower coverage and frequency across the state. In addition to the potential for an uptick in shower activity, dew points will be on the rise, leading to muggier conditions through the weekend. && .AVIATION... Breezy to windy trades will continue through Wednesday and bring low clouds and scattered showers predominately to windward and mountain areas. There will also be isolated spillover into leeward sites. VFR will prevail for most sites, with occasional localized MVFR mainly for windward/mountain sites associated with the stronger showers. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure remains centered north of the state, which is driving fresh to strong trade winds across all coastal waters. An advanced scatterometer (ASCAT) pass from late morning revealed that these winds are still in place over large portions of the area, and although winds may shift a bit more easterly and ease slightly, decided to continue the Small Craft Advisory through tonight. A few zones may be drop out of the SCA by Wednesday, but most areas are likely to see an extension in time of the SCA through the next several days. A moderate, medium- to long-period south southwest (190-200 degrees) swell continues to generate moderate surf below advisory criteria along south facing shores. This swell energy will gradually lower through the remainder of the week. Expect small surf for south facing shores leading into this weekend, with mainly background energy. Another moderate, long-period south southwest swell (210-220 degrees) is expected to fill in Sunday, but due to the direction of the source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell. Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. A small, moderate period west (280 degrees) swell is expected to arrive this weekend and linger into early next week. No significant swells are expected out of the north or northwest. Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the second half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel. && $$ DISCUSSION...Farris AVIATION...Parker MARINE...Vaughan  449 FXUS65 KRIW 080151 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 751 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms have primarily ended across the forecast area this evening. Any additional showers and storms will be very isolated through the night. - Wednesday will see another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with near seasonable temperatures. Strong storms are possible over Johnson County late Wednesday afternoon. Showers will again linger Wednesday night into Thursday morning over some areas. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again Thursday afternoon over central WY, and perhaps Friday afternoon across western WY. Temperatures begin to climb on Friday to 5-10 degrees above normal. - Very warm to hot temperatures are expected this weekend along with dry conditions. Record-breaking temperatures are possible Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, with mid 90s in the western valleys, and 100 to 105 degrees in the basins east of the divide. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 As I wrote in a couple of discussions last week about this same time of day, another shortwave trough is moving from the northeast Great Basin through WY. Moisture is ample with surface dewpoints ranging from the low 40s to the mid 50s and precipitable water values around two-thirds to three-quarters of an inch. Based on the RIW 18Z sounding (still in flight), as temperatures reach around 90F, CAPE around 1000 J/kg will allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop and continue through the afternoon and into the evening. As of 1210 PM, convection has already initiated in the Upper Green River Basin and near Cokeville and Flaming Gorge, moving ENE today. The area from southwest WY toward central WY and into Johnson County will have the higher probabilities of thunderstorms today, with gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph the primary threat, especially in areas where the dewpoint depressions are larger. Brief heavy rain even from higher cloud bases and small(ish) hail will also occur with frequent lightning. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms for northeast WY, so storms that develop around Johnson County from 5 to 8 PM have a higher chance of producing severe convective weather. CAMs and mesoscale models continue to show areas of showers through midnight across much of western and central WY too. The general instability and increased boundary layer moisture continues into Wednesday for more isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary threat, with stronger storms expected yet again over Johnson County. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms continue to linger across the state early this morning. As of writing this around 0100 MDT, a couple flashes of lightning have been detected over portions of western WY. However, convective activity is gradually waning with clusters of lightning continuing to decrease. Precipitation chances will remain mostly across western and northern WY through the predawn hours. Showers and storms will continue to trek east through the morning with the bulk dissipating by sunrise. A shortwave will be the main instigator for the "active" weather today and Wednesday. The shortwave currently is making its way across Montana while ushering in above normal moisture to the region. This can be seen with PWATs being nearly 100-150% above normal across much of the area. Dewpoints also reflect this with portions of the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County likely to see values in the 50s this afternoon. As for temperatures, they will be similar to Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s east of the Divide and low to mid 80s west of the Divide. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible later this afternoon and evening. Coverage today will shift farther south with northwestern WY likely having lesser chances of seeing a shower or storm compared to elsewhere. Precipitation chances across the forecast area aside from northwestern WY look to range from 20-40% with the best chances being over central and portions of southern WY. The other aspect regarding the convection possible this afternoon and evening, will be the potential for a few strong to severe storms developing. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of the state with a marginal risk (1 out of 5). The only exception to this is portions of northwestern and western WY, specifically much of YNP and the Tetons/Jackson Hole where the marginal risk has been excluded. There is a very small sliver of slight risk (2 out of 5) for a portion of Johnson County mainly due to large hail threat. The setup is a wide swath of above normal moisture across the area. Morning cloud cover is expected to gradually clear by the early afternoon with daytime heating helping produce CAPE values around 500 J/kg over much of the state. Some CAMs are highlighting portions of Johnson County and central WY with swaths of CAPE nearing 1000 J/kg. So if this were to occur, there could be more juice for any storms that develop. Steep low to mid level lapse rates are forecast over much of the state as well. The other factor will be favorable dynamics as a result of the nearby short wave. Low to mid level wind shear values currently look to range from 25 to 35 knots. Overall, the main threat today will be strong gusty winds with CAMs highlighting favorable downdraft CAPE values. Storms could produce strong gusty outflow winds of 50 mph or more at times. There does remain a threat for hail with the most favorable locations being central and northern WY, specifically Johnson County. Otherwise, frequent lightning and brief moderate rainfall may be possible with any storms. Showers and thunderstorms may linger into the late evening hours Tuesday and possibly into the early morning hours Wednesday. Wednesday has trended towards another day with possible afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This once again is the result of lingering moisture and the exiting shortwave. Currently, much of the state looks to have similar chances for precipitation as Tuesday. However, chances for strong to severe storms looks to diminish and shift farther east. The SPC currently has far eastern portions of Johnson and Natrona Counties in a marginal risk with the main concerns being strong gusty winds and hail. Aside from these locations, the remainder of the state will see similar hazards as the previous days with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail possible. No, there does not seem to have been a technical glitch in the long term forecast models, it really is looking to be that hot this weekend. Some long term models have done a good job of indicating this heat as early as last week. Barring some miraculous shift in the weather pattern, we are likely to see a period of dangerously hot, record breaking temperatures this weekend. This heat will be the result of an anomalously potent high pressure ridge that builds across the western/central CONUS. Temperatures start to turn up Friday with current highs getting into the middle to upper 90s east of the Divide and upper 80s to lower 90s west of the Divide. The warmest temperatures look to arrive for the weekend. Guidance is showing western valleys such as Star Valley and Jackson Hole possibly seeing highs around 95F Saturday. Locations east of the Divide to no surprise are warmer, with central basins seeing highs nearing the century mark. Northern locations, such as portions of the Bighorn Basin may see highs nearing 105F. Sunday looks even warmer with locations west of the Divide seeing 20-40% of highs nearing 100F. East of the Divide central basins have 20-50% for highs around 105F. Portions of the Bighorn Basin may see highs near 110F with chances sitting around 10-30%. These percentages are to show the potential range for high temperatures. So if there is a 20-50% for highs near 105F, its likely the highs will at least be greater than 100F. There is increasing likelihood that numerous daily high temperature records and even all-time high temperature records may be met or broken. Climate data at KLND goes back to 1891 and the current all time high temperature is 102F set back in 1935 on July 27th. Currently, the NBM has a forecast high of 104F for Sunday, so that should give an idea of how historic this period of heat may be. Yes, this degree of heat can be dangerous for those who are at risk or do not use caution. So be sure to stay up to date on the forecast and be prepared, especially if planning outdoor activities! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 506 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection continues into Tuesday evening before coverage and intensity begin to subside between 02Z-05Z/Wednesday. Gusty wind 25- 40kts remains the primary hazard. However, better surface moisture could still allow for brief, less than 30-minute, MVFR to IFR visibility over the north-half of the state, while a dry sub-cloud base over the south favors gusty outflow wind 30-45kts. Moisture in the northern Great Basin persists in streaming northeast across the forecast area much of tonight. As a result, light showers linger overnight, especially across the southern-third of Wyoming. By 15Z/Wednesday, cloud cover clears the region and allows for better daytime heating heading into the afternoon. This sets the stage for another round of afternoon convection, although coverage should be less than that of Tuesday. Confidence is highest for Wednesday afternoon storms in the vicinity of KRKS and near the northern terminals of KCOD and KWRL where PROB30 groups have been included. Otherwise, all terminals to be VFR through the period with the possible exception of the aforementioned short-term MVFR. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...McDonald DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...CNJ/Rowe