816 FXUS63 KFSD 080215 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 915 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is potential for strong to severe storms tonight. Large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging winds to 70 mph are the main hazards. An isolated tornado is possible as well. - Strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening along south of Highway 18. At this time, there is only a 20-30% chance for storms to become severe but trends will be monitored. - High temperatures look to rise to the 90s to 100 degree mark towards the end of this coming weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 913 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The forecast for tonight remains largely on track with a couple of exceptions. The first being the delayed onset of convection. The CAMs guidance for tonight continues to indicate stronger storms should be on going over central South Dakota as of 9 pm CDT. This delay may be due to the fact that warming through the mid-levels has been stronger tonight than originally forecast earlier today. This warming continues to keep a cap on the environment preventing surface based convection from initiating. Second, convergence at the surface is rather weak. With no strong forcing for ascent, there just isn't the kick needed to get air parcels moving upward. However, in the next couple of hours the mid-level wave moves northeast through the region and the LLJ intensifies. From this point an increase in strong to severe elevated convection is still anticipated. The main threats remain hail to the size of a ping-pong ball, wind gusts to 70 mph, and heavy downpours. As the system grows upscale into a line, the main threat will transition to damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. One final note: the best storm dynamics remain along and north of Highway 14, and it is this area that has the highest risk for severe weather. This is outlined in SPC Day 1 Outlook of a Slight (level 2 of 5). Outside of storm chances winds will be light and variable and lows will be warm in the upper 60s to low 70s. Short term guidance diverges here on how storms will evolve Wednesday morning through the rest of the day. The HRRR and the RAP keep broader showers and thunderstorms going along the slow moving front, bringing rain to most of the region. The HiResARW, FV3, and NamNest keep showers and storms very isolated keeping most of the region dry. Broader mid-range guidance tells a similar story with some favoring more widespread showers and others more isolated. As far as the rest of Wednesday, persistent and thicker cloud cover will keep our highs a bit cooler than the past two days, in the 80s to low 90s for areas along and south of Highway 18. Lows will be in the 60s. The quasi-stationary front continues to slowly sink southeast through the day Wednesday. Fairly good Theta-e advection brings in more rich, unstable air that pools along the south side, mainly over northeast Nebraska, extreme southeast South Dakota, and northwest Iowa. A strong cap will be in place for much of the afternoon, but will begin to erode by the early evening. Similar to tonight a shallow mid-level wave will progress east through the region at the same time the LLJ increases. This should work to trigger another round of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms with hail to the size of a quarter and 60 mph wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet conditions persist this afternoon with high temperatures warming to the mid to upper 80s and low 90s. Latest satellite and surface obs show a , outflow boundary from morning storms that is set up along from Huron South Dakota to De Smet South Dakota, to Canby Minnesota. The main effective boundary is also visible on satellite well northwest of the area. These boundaries will serve as the areas for new thunderstorms to develop on later this afternoon as a mid level wave interacts with the boundaries. Large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging winds to 70 mph will be the main hazards. While the tornado threat will be mostly north and west of the area, a local/isolated tornado threat is possible along the boundary as the mean wind is oriented parallel to it, allowing for a longer resonance time for a storm to ingest the boundary driven helicity. These storms look to develop later this afternoon around 5 pm or later as the mid level wave catches up to the boundary. A second round of showers and some storms will develop across the Black Hills this afternoon and push eastwards. These storms will cross the state of South Dakota and get into locations east river this evening. The environment does not look all that favorable as less moisture (and associated instability) will be available in this area. At the same time, vertical shear will also be weaker in this same area as well. While the strengthening low level jet could keep elevated showers and isolated storms going, any storm that persists into the forecast area is not expected to be strong to severe Any chance for a strong to severe storm will come to an end by 3 am or a little earlier. Though these showers may persist through the forecast area overnight. Latest guidance shows these showers continuing to persist throughout the day on Wednesday. This will bring some cloud cover to the area which will keep temperatures just a little bit cooler. As the same time, the previously mentioned boundary will be sliding southwards through the area. This boundary looks to slide just far enough to the south that additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms could develop on it. Latest hi-res guidance shows these storms developing across parts of northwest Iowa tomorrow afternoon before exiting the area in the evening. While this looks to be the consensus amongst the guidance, some uncertainty regarding how far south the boundary gets remains. If the boundary gets hung up, then severe storm chances could increase during the daylight hours tomorrow. As of now, the latest REFS shows a 20-30% chance for reflectivity values to exceed 40 dBZ. Thus, think the most likely scenario for tomorrow is for elevated showers and weak storms push through the majority of the area. The exception will be portions of northwest Iowa, generally near and south/southeast of highway-60 where a pre-frontal trough where enough surface heating could result in a few severe storms during the afternoon timeframe. Will keep an eye on this potential. Any chance for strong to severe storms will come to an end during the evening hours as the surface boundary and pre-frontal trough push southeast of the area. Thursday looks to be a pleasant Summer day as high temperatures warm to the 80s and winds stay light out of the north/northeast. High temperatures look to warm to 80s while humidity values remain modest. There looks to be enough instability to develop a few showers to an isolated thunderstorm. Any storm that does develop is not expected to be strong to severe as vertical shear profiles will be weak. As of now, only have a 20-40% chance for these showers to weak storms to develop. Chances for rain will be trending downwards into the evening hours as the boundary layer stabilizes. Friday will see continued near seasonable temperatures with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Highs will begin to warm as an upper level ridge begins to build on Saturday. Highs will warm a bit more to the mid 80s to mid 90s Saturday afternoon. The ridge looks to build up over the Rocky Mountains on Sunday before quickly translating to over the Northern Plains by early next week. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance places the peak of the ridge up to 597 to 600 dam. This will result in much hotter temperatures returning to the area with high temperatures into the 90s to potentially the low 100s. The ensembles support this as they show a broad 40-100% chance for high temperatures to exceed 90F and a 40-70% chance for highs to break 100F. The highest probabilities lie across central South Dakota. With the center of the ridge places directly over the Northern Plains, the upper level jet and associated gradients will be north of the area. This looks to leave mostly dry and hot conditions Sunday through Tuesday at this time. Humid conditions will accompany the heat so heat headlines will be possible. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail this period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front and move in from the west later this evening into the overnight. Some of these could be strong to severe producing hail to the size of a golf ball and wind gusts to 60 kts. Areas under stronger storms could see ceiling and visibility decreases down to MVFR and brief IFR. Some erratic wind gusts will also be possible as the storms progress through. Winds behind the front will become northerly and light through Wednesday. Due to the slow moving nature of this system, showers and storms could linger through the end of the period, especially at KFSD and KSUX. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AJP DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...AJP  004 FXUS61 KRNK 080224 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1024 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flood watch dropped as torrential rains are not expected in the watch area the rest of the evening, outside a stray shower or storm. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding across the Piedmont. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: A few heavier storms could bring gusty winds and localized flooding east of the mountains this evening before dissipating. Higher CAPES (3000 J/kg) earlier in the Piedmont leading to strong/severe storms, with plenty of CGs. Airmass is highly moist with PWATS over 2 inches in the Piedmont hence the flood watch through midnight, but radar trends looking less likely for anything more than isolated flooding issues for now. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the beginning of next week. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and roughly westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. This front will be the focus for daily threat of showers/storms with greatest coverage from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the front essentially stalling over the area, will have to contend with a multi-day threat for localized heavy rain and marginally severe storms. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes early Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for Friday and Saturday, with the front passing south of the region on Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal for approaching the middle of July, and widespread excessive heat is not forecast to return at least for this part of the country. The ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is shifting west over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Look for mainly VFR through this evening, outside any shower/storms that may bring sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. Looks like showers fade by late evening but thinking flow turning northeast will bring lower cigs and some fog to area, especially northwest of a line from LWB-DAN. Am leaning toward lower cigs in the mountains, then 1-3kft at ROA/LYH/DAN. In general expect light winds (under 5kts). Should see gradual improvement to VFR by 14z-15z Wednesday. Scattered storms will again fire up in the 17-19z time frame, but best coverage will be after 19z. Not enough to have in TAFS except VCTS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Potentially drier early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM/WP AVIATION...PM/WP  175 FXUS65 KTFX 080230 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 830 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Better chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive Wednesday afternoon, with severe wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rainfall as the primary hazards. - Dry and hot conditions build in towards the weekend. - A few record high temperatures are possible this weekend. && .UPDATE... Updated forecast for this evening is out. The main change was just to adjust pops towards current trends. Precipitation has moved east over North Central MT, thus pops removed over the north. Scattered thunderstorms continue around West Yellowstone for a few more hours. With recent precip in the Havre area, some patchy fog is possible in this region by morning. The other main concern is the potential for severe storms on Wednesday. The latest HRRR is showing the potential for several storms capable of producing strong/severe wind gusts on Wed afternoon. Thus portions of the CWA are already under a marginal risk for the potential of severe storms Wed, and this will continue to be looked at closely overnight. Looking ahead further, it should be a hot and mostly dry weekend, with the rest of the forecast on track. Brusda && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 200 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: The small shortwave will continue to track across Central MT/Hi- line this afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to develop as a result through the evening hours. Current mesoanalysis shows CAPE building towards 1,000 j/kg. Bulk shear around 20kts at the time suggests thunderstorms could struggle to become strong to severe at first, before better shear moves in late this afternoon. With the shortwave tracking east across the state, the thunderstorm threat will mainly be across Hill, Blaine, and Fergus Counties. One or two strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong winds and small to large hail. Very high PWATs of 1 to 1.2" across North-Central MT also brings a localized flash flooding threat for any storm that produces heavy rainfall. Behind this shortwave, a stable airmass settles in for the night and Wednesday morning. Hi-res models show ample low level moisture for the development of patchy fog across the Golden Triangle Region tonight into the morning. Though, this will largely depend on how much rain the areas receives today. Weak southwest flow aloft tomorrow will continue to bring in moist and unstable air into the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop along a cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and evening. Overall forcing and shear are better which gives better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. Severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard due to deep mixing and 1,000+ j/kg of DCAPE. However, these high based storms have all the instability being at the mid levels so I can't rule out isolated large hail. PWATs nearing an inch will also bring another heavy rainfall threat with a low end chance for localized flash flooding over burn scars and urban areas. Thursday through the weekend, an upper-level ridge will build in across the state, bringing drier weather and hot temperatures. Current forecast temperatures reach the mid to upper 90s this weekend. The stress impact from this ridge will largely depend on how much we cool off at night. Currently there's a 40-70% chance minimum temperatures of 65 degrees and higher Sunday and Monday. Ensembles hint at monsoonal moisture could come back next week with ridging, bringing a return for precipitation. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: One concern earlier today for the thunderstorm potential was the small lingering mesoscale convective vortex system this morningwill limit surface heating and instability. Though it looks to be areas that got a little sun was able to rebuild instability quickly. However, the chances for strong to severe storms this afternoon will be isolated. For thunderstorm chances Wednesday, the north Central MT plains look to be the best corridor for strong to severe thunderstorms. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 08/00Z TAF Period Isolated showers and thunderstorms on-going across portions of Central and Southwest Montana this evening until 03Z. Potential for shallow fog/mist and MVFR conditions to develop between 11Z and 14Z in the valleys and low lying areas of North Central Montana primarily impacting KHVR. Thunderstorms Wednesday from North Central to Southwest Montana with a chance for some to be severe from 22Z through the end of the period possibly impacting KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN, and KEKS. - Akins && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 55 91 57 87 / 0 20 30 0 CTB 53 86 56 82 / 0 10 0 0 HLN 56 88 56 86 / 0 30 20 0 BZN 53 87 53 86 / 0 10 30 0 WYS 45 82 45 81 / 20 10 20 0 DLN 52 84 51 85 / 0 10 20 0 HVR 53 90 57 86 / 0 10 20 0 LWT 51 86 53 84 / 0 10 40 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  387 FXUS62 KKEY 080233 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1033 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A typical summertime pattern will continue through the middle of the week, with near or slightly below normal rain chances and warm and muggy conditions continuing. - A weak Saharan Air Layer is on track to move over the Florida Keys by mid week and diminish shower chances for a day or two. Heat indices may creep towards 110 around mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Our KBYX radar was particularly busy earlier this afternoon as outflow boundaries stemming from South Florida converged with the east to southeasterly flow across our area. The result was pockets of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. The most "electric" storms occurred just offshore to the north of Key West, and eventually steering closer to the Marquesas Keys. While this activity dodged the few surface observation sites we have, the ASOS at Key West International Airport did report thunder at times as the thunderstorms worked themselves over. SHortly after sunset, virtually all of the activity diminished, and only a few isolated showers are currently percolating across the Southeast Gulf waters well to the north of the Lower Keys. There aren't any obvious ghost boundaries currently being detected on radar, so the uniform easterly flow should keep things from reigniting here in the very short term. High pressure draped over the region is ensuring that we feel the summer season. As we are typing up this evening update, air temperatures are still in the upper 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. This means our heat indices are still near 100F along the Keys, even though sunset was a couple of hours ago. Preliminary observation data shows high temperatures along the Florida Keys today were in the lower 90s, but our hot spot was Big Pine Key with 96F this afternoon. GOES-19 Dust detection shows some Saharan Air Layer (SAL) nudging into the area, and this should help to keep a lid on PoPs. With a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms slated for our overnight hours, around a 20% chance, this seems reasonable while these last few showers work themselves out. No changes or updates are proposed for the current forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, gentle to modestly moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail over the next few days as the western edge of an Atlantic ridge strengthens and lifts northward into Central Florida. Winds will tend to peak in the evening where periodic cautions may be required for portions of Keys waters. Advisories cannot be completely ruled out at this time. Shower coverage will wax and wane between slight and a chance, with a day or two drier stretch arriving mid week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with only FEW to SCT clouds based near FL025. Isolated pockets of afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible, around 10% to 20% chance, near the Keys, but we are opting to keep the current TAF package dry due to the uncertainty related to the timing and location. Surface winds will oscillate between east and southeasterly near 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 92 84 92 / 20 10 10 0 Marathon 83 92 84 92 / 20 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at:www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  418 FXUS63 KLSX 080235 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 935 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures gradually warm through Thursday or Friday. - The potential for showers and thunderstorms increases late Thursday through Saturday with at least a low threat for severe thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Broad surface high pressure remains centered near the Mississippi River at the Iowa/Illinois border. The flow around this high has led to the more modest humidity the past few days along with cooler temperatures. Looking aloft, our region is in a weakness in between two ridges. The ridge that brought our recent heat has weakened and shifted southeast into the western Atlantic, while a new ridge has strengthened over the Rocky Mountains. In the weakness in between we see multiple weak lows stretching from the Rio Grande through the Midsouth and to New England. The one nearest to us is currently spinning near southeast Missouri making very slow progress toward the Ohio River. With enough lingering low level moisture and cooler temperatures aloft within the trough, instability has built up with the heat of the day. With added support from the vorticity aloft, we'll see isolated showers and a few embedded thunderstorms this afternoon mainly in southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. With little to no wind shear to work with, any storms will be of the pulse variety with primarily a threat for locally heavy downpours and lightning. These should dissipate for the most part within a couple of hours of sunset. We'll see a similar story for Wednesday, but with slightly warmer temperatures and perhaps a little less coverage of showers locally. The trough weakens and slowly pushes east while we get another day of July sun working to modify the air mass in place. Temperatures begin to approach 90 degrees, especially in central Missouri closer to the influence of the western ridge. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A shortwave trough rounding the top of the western ridge will dip southeast into the Upper Midwest on Thursday, sliding a surface cold front southward into Iowa and northern Illinois. Our area should remain south of the front on Thursday allowing for another day of warming, into the low 90s. Thankfully, though, humidity remains modest without a significant moisture connection to the Gulf, meaning heat index values top out only around 100 degrees. As the front continues to dip southward it will serve as a focus for multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the coming days as additional shortwave troughs track eastward in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Wind shear does increase just enough to support some storm organization with the potential for one or more Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) to develop mainly Thursday evening and again Friday evening. Where these more organized thunderstorms develop there will exist a greater threat for damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Each round of storms has the net effect of gradually shifting the surface boundary southward, though how quickly this progression occurs remains to be seen. This frontal positioning, and any cloud cover associated with the rounds of thunderstorms, will impact the temperature forecast Friday and Saturday. If the front doesn't move very quickly southward and we see strong sunshine, then Friday could be just as hot or a bit hotter than Thursday. The latest forecast assumes more cloud cover and a gradual southward push of the front, leading to lower high temperatures each day through Saturday. Late in the weekend the western ridge strengthens andexpands into the Northern Plains. This has the effect of pushing surface high pressure southward through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday, further shoving the surface front southward. With the front further south, the daily threat of storms also shifts southward leading to a drier forecast as we go into early next week. But with the ridge building to our north we'll also see temperatures begin to rise again. Guidance varies on how the ridge progresses, with some eventually pushing the center of the ridge over our area. Thus there's some uncertainty on just how hot it will get. However, confidence in high temperatures in the 90s increases each day through the middle of next week, with NBM probability of 90+ reaching about 50 to 60 percent by Tuesday. However, with the surface high nearby it will block access to richer Gulf moisture, keeping humidity levels more modest for this time of year and holding heat index values in check. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 931 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF. While a few weak showers have developed just southeast of STL this evening, this activity is not likely to directly impact the terminal and should diminish by the start of the period. Light winds are expected overnight, with a low chance for shallow fog at river valley sites (SUS/JEF/CPS), but given that fog struggled to develop last night under very similar conditions, probabilities remain too low to include in the TAF at this time. VFR cumulus is expected again tomorrow afternoon, with another limited opportunity for weak showers near St. Louis terminals in the afternoon. However, once again the majority of this activity is expected to remain southeast of the terminal, and the probability of direct impacts to terminals remains too low (less than 30%) for TAF mention at this time. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  621 FXUS61 KCTP 080243 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1043 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Flood Watch issued for the southern Alleghenies & Laurel Highlands until 12AM Wednesday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible in south central PA this afternoon into tonight && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible in south central PA this afternoon into tonight Considerable breaks in the clouds has allowed for convective development over southwest PA late this morning into the early afternoon. High moisture content environment remains in place with slow moving showers/storms capable of producing intense rain rates. Cumulative rainfall over the past few days has lead to increased soil sensitivity and significantly reduced FFG. Hires ensemble guidance (HREF/REFS) shows the southern Alleghenies and Laurels Highlands with the highest odds for localized 2-3" rainfall amounts. WPC has maintained a level 2/4 excessive rain risk for this area and we issued a flood watch until 12AM Wed to highlight the short-term flooding threat. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week, especially Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs generally in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Plenty of low level moisture still in place across the region. Areas east of a KBFD-KDUJ-KAOO line will keep the MVFR ceilings through the first half of the night. Brought these locations down to IFR or LIFR in BR/FG. Confidence is high (>70%) for LIFR in FG at KUNV as it has for the past several mornings. The remainder of sites will hold at VFR throuigh most of the night with an occasional dip to MVFR. Winds will remain less than 5 kts overnight. Model guidance does indicate a slow improvement trend after 12Z Wednesday, thus have continued the trend of increasing visibilities and ceilings during the mid and late day. Winds will shift to a general southerly direction but will remain less than 8kts. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Mainly dry early. Numerous to many SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon. Intermittent impacts likely. Sat-Sun...Chance of showers and a few storms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bauco DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bauco AVIATION...Tyburski  886 FXUS63 KFGF 080253 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 953 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 2 out of 5 risk this evening into the morning hours for severe hail, damaging wind gusts, and excessive rainfall/flash flooding. This threat exists along and south of interstate 94 and Highway 10 (southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota). - Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...Synopsis... Ensembles are in good agreement with the large scale pattern over the next 7 days, depicting the current zonal flow to transition into a sort of omega block pattern with ridging across the central CONUS. Details less certain of course. ...Severe and Flash Flood Potential... Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough across Montana slowly propagating eastward. As this feature continue to propagate eastward this evening, anticipate a strong 850mb jet to develop with nose of this feature into the southern Red River Valley. Currently, showers are developing along a 700mb boundary across central North Dakota, with additional activity associated with an MCV across the southern RRV and west central Minnesota. This activity will continue eastward, although impacts will be minimal. Later this evening, the 850mb front will shift north as the low level jet increases. Surface instability will remain across South Dakota, but with instability along the elevated front and stronger warm air advection there is a very high chance for elevated thunderstorms along and south of I-94/Hwy10. Severe Potential...Freezing levels are near 15 Kft, but given the elevated nature of the storms potential exists for near severe to severe hail given MUCAPE near 2000 J/Kg and effective shear near 50 knots. Potential also exists for severe wind given the anticipated strong low level bulk shear, even with the storm being elevated. The elevated nature of the storms will limit severe potential, but will not eliminate severe potential. Excessive rainfall/flash flood potential...Anticipate heavy rainfall rates given PWATS near 1.75 inches along with soundings indicating efficient rainfall rate processes (plus high freezing level). Given the west to east position of the elevated front, potential also exists for training storms. CAM guidance indicating mean rainfall 1-2 inches with max rainfall near 5 inches. Given all of this, plus the rain that fell yesterday (1-2 inches) across west central Minnesota, will issue a flood watch for flash flood potential (10p-7a). ...Dangerous Heat... As the ridging builds into the weekend, anticipate max temperatures 95F-100F (maybe a bit warmer) across much of the region Saturday through Monday. Heat risk, wet bulb globe temp, and heat index values all indicate a dangerous heat episode. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 953 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection continues to be the main aviation impacts for the next few hours as a weakening thunderstorm complex brings some rain and lightning to the KBJI and KFAR area. Should start transitioning over to more VCSH by 06Z with just a few lingering spits as the primary complex moves further from our airports. Clouds behind the convective complex look to remain VFR, with light and variable winds starting to pick up out of the northeast by tomorrow morning. Decreasing clouds and northeast winds 8 to 10 kts will continue through most of tomorrow, and winds will become light and variable by the end of the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ029>032-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...JR  893 FXUS64 KJAN 080253 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 953 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels of heat (limited to elevated) will return late this week and persist into the weekend. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The showers/storms have dissipated across the area this evening and expect mainly partly cloudy skies to prevail overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s./15/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Through Wednesday night: For this afternoon at least, the forecast area is getting a temporary reprieve from the active convective pattern, but a semi-organized convective cluster over north MS is developing southward, and outflow from this system this should increase thunderstorm chances along the Hwy 82 corridor as we approach early evening. Any storms that develop should diminish later this evening with mostly quiet weather conditions overnight. Going into Wednesday, we may see greater diurnal storm coverage with the continuation of cyclonic upper level flow associated with the LMV trough. Thursday through the weekend: Rain chances will diminish for Thu- Fri as the subtropical ridge rebuilds over the forecast area. Accompanying the building ridge will be an increasing heat danger risk with H850 temps approach 21 deg C and low level flow developing a more westerly component. For now, we will message this threat with a heat danger graphic, but expect that a heat advisory will eventually be needed for portions of the area. Early next week: Global models have a had a strong signal for a shortwave trough rotating around the ridge and sending a boundary toward our area in the Mon-Tue time frame, and this could support a significant round or two of convective rainfall. Along with this, the heat would diminish to below dangerous levels. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 All TAF sites are VFR this evening and this will continue through the period. Cannot rule out some minor ground fog early on Wednesday./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 73 91 73 / 10 20 40 10 Meridian 92 73 92 73 / 40 10 30 10 Vicksburg 91 73 91 75 / 30 20 50 20 Hattiesburg 93 74 94 75 / 30 10 30 30 Natchez 92 73 93 75 / 30 20 30 20 Greenville 91 73 91 74 / 30 10 40 10 Greenwood 91 73 92 74 / 40 10 40 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/  005 FXUS64 KOUN 080256 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 956 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 955 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - A few isolated showers and storms may be possible today across southeast/south central and western Oklahoma. - Storm chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend with a slight shift in the pattern aloft. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through next weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A few showers have developed in the cumulus field across western Oklahoma along an axis from Woodward to Duncan and Ardmore. The CAMs (mainly the Hi-res NAM and the ARW) only marginally showed this area and of course the NBM had no clue, so have added some low POPs along the axis of the best cumulus field into western Oklahoma. These storms should be isolated and mainly diurnal, but mesoanalysis does show high Downdraft CAPE values (~1500 J/kg) that any strong, established core could produce some strong winds. Later tonight, a number of the CAMs have some signal of at least isolated convection in southeast Oklahoma toward sunrise, similar to what we saw with the ACCAS field this morning. So have added an area of slight chance POPs across the southeast early Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Some lingering showers may persist in the morning in the southeast with additional development of isolated showers/storms again in the afternoon southeast. A shortwave moves through the central Rockies on Thursday and into the central Plains Thursday night. Storms will likely develop over the High Plains of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon, and push into the Plains Thursday night. Although the best chances of storms will be farther north, there is still potential for some of these storms to move across northern Oklahoma. Warmer highs are expected Wednesday and Thursday as low-level flow veers with more of a downslope component, and the low-level thermal axis shift east from the High Plains toward the lower plains. With this veering low-level flow also comes lower dewpoints, so heat index values will be kept somewhat in check by the lower humidity. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Temperatures are expected to be cooler into the weekend as the ridge remains across the Desert Southwest, eventually moving northward across the rockies. Although temperatures will be cooler, the low- level moisture will increase as well. In turn, heat indices will remain in the 100-105 F range through the weekend. Widespread rain and thunderstorm chances will be possible through Sunday. Similar temperatures/heat indices are expected into early next week. Bunker && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Skies are clearing out tonight with VFR conditions expected to continue. Winds will shift to south-southwesterly at most sites tomorrow morning and remain that way during the day. There will be a few showers in southeast Oklahoma, but precipitation chances at DUA of 10-20 percent don't quite justify a PROB30 as of the 06Z TAF issuance. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 94 72 99 78 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 97 73 100 77 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 97 74 100 78 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 97 72 101 76 / 10 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 90 70 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 94 74 97 79 / 20 20 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...04