415 FXUS63 KDTX 080304 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1104 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm tomorrow with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. - Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. High humidity will bring a threat for locally heavy rainfall with any storm. - Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions return this weekend. - A heat wave is possible next week (3 consecutive days of 90+ degrees). && .AVIATION... High pressure maintains quiet aviation conditions early tonight with light winds and a few scattered mid clouds lingering across the area. Main item through remainder of the night will be the potential for patchy ground fog development as low level moisture lingers across east and south portions of the forecast area. Data continues to suggest a few hours of MVFR and possible IFR visibility restrictions prior to sunrise. Any visibility restrictions will begin to lift as daytime mixing develops. Expecting VFR conditions to prevail afterwards. Scattered showers will be possible near the end of this TAF period towards MBS. D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for visibility 1/2SM or less and ceilings 200 feet or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 DISCUSSION... Surface ridge and drier air held strong over Lower Michigan most of the day, but the eastern half of the CWA finally saw some SCT-BKN CU development this afternoon as surface dew pts pushed into the 60s. Very dry mid levels (12z DTX 700 MB dew pt depression checked in at 36 C) will preclude any shower/thunderstorm activity. Upper level energy/jet forcing tracking through the Great Basin, northeast through the northern Rockies and into northern Ontario tonight. Multiple shortwaves are present, but the main 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge and moisture axis (PW values 1.75-2 inches) will remain around the Straights through the day on Wednesday. The last vestiges of 850-700 MB Theta-E trough will hold over southeast Michigan to provide another dry and warm day as temps push into the upper 80s. The cold front/moisture axis will sag south Wednesday evening into Thursday, providing the focus for showers and thunderstorms. A stronger shortwave tracking through Iowa will likely slow the southward progression of the cold front over southern Lower Michigan, which could allow for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night- even potentially into Friday if the stronger Canadian model is to believed. As usual, the 12z NAM most aggressive with instability building during Thursday, with MLcapes reaching 2000+ J/kg, along with just enough 0-6 bulk shear of 30-35 knots to draw concern for severe storms. However, other models are more subdued. With weak mid level lapse rates and weaker wind fields, we would expect mostly strong, sub-severe thunderstorms, though isolated, precip loaded marginal severe downbursts are possible given the higher DCAPE values indicated. With good moisture (PW values around 1.75"/700 MB dew pts in excess of 2 C), heavy rain and localized flooding are a concern with repeated rounds of storms. But right now, no clear signal indicated, as euro ensembles struggle to even support qpf aoa 0.5" in a 24 hour period. A building upper level ridge over the Northern Plains during the weekend will be the main weather story, with this heat dome pushing into the Upper Mississippi River Valley/Western Great Lakes early next week. Another heat wave is possible next week for southeast Michigan, but the exact strength and location of ridge center will have to be worked out, as we could end up on the outer fringe and be susceptible to the ridge riders diving southeast from Central Canada. MARINE... High pressure continues to sit atop the Great Lakes today into Wednesday, allowing light winds and dry conditions to persist. A front will bring rain and the possibility for a thunderstorm Thursday into Friday. This will also provide the best chance for slightly breezy conditions with gusts around 20 knots. As this front moves out of our region Friday, we see another high pressure entering the region into the weekend, providing calmer and drier conditions. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......TO/AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  430 FXUS63 KICT 080329 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1029 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances return to mainly central Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Damaging winds will be the primary concerns with the strongest storms. - Additional storms appear likely Thursday night through Saturday evening. Strong to severe storms remain possible with this activity. - Slight warming trend expected through Thursday, then a return to near normal temperatures heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a mid/upper low swirling near the Lower Mississippi River Valley as continued upper ridging persists over the region. This will allow for continued dry conditions through Wednesday afternoon alongside highs largely in the middle to upper 90s, with heat index values around or slightly above 100 degrees possible especially in south central Kansas. A change in the recent dry pattern arrives late Wednesday as a shortwave tracks eastward into the Plains. This will allow for a weak frontal zone to slowly shift southward into the area late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Short-term guidance suggests the potential for storms growing into a cluster further north and tracking to the southeast across southern Nebraska and north central Kansas. Better support for storm potential should reside to our north and west, though propagation vectors suggest portions of central and perhaps even south central Kansas may see scattered activity particularly after midnight and lasting into early Thursday morning. With healthy DCAPE in place, damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat as storms move through the area. Storm chances will return later Thursday and Friday as outflow from overnight activity kicks off another round of convection by the evening/overnight timeframe. Per the prior discussion, widespread severe weather appears unlikely at this time, though modest shear paired with decent buoyancy may continue to promote strong to severe storms heading into the weekend. Furthermore, additional rounds of rainfall may lead to localized flooding concerns especially Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures toward the latter half of the week will be influenced by storm coverage overnight and whether skies clear out in time for peak heating. For now, guidance suggests highs in the mid 90s on Thursday and then near 90 beginning Friday and lasting into the beginning of next week. If cloud cover from overnight storms limits insolation into the afternoon, it may be a struggle to reach the current forecast values through Saturday. As things stand, however, heat index values around/above 100 degrees are forecast in southeast Kansas for the afternoon and early evening hours beginning Thursday and potentially lasting into Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Great flying weather expected over the region for the next 24hrs with VFR conditions. Light southeast winds will switch to the south during the day on Wednesday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...CDJ  639 FXUS66 KMFR 080334 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 834 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...Updated the Marine Section... .AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... Weak instability over far northeast Klamath and far northwest Lake counties may produce a few thunderstorms early this evening. A marine layer will likely keep North Bend/KOTH under overcast IFR/MVFR ceilings through most of Wednesday morning, with some gradual improvement to a scattered layer expected again during the late morning into the early evening. Farther inland, all terminals are expected to be under VFR conditions through Wednesday afternoon with one caveats. The marine layer will likely be strong enough overnight to bring MVFR ceilings to Roseburg/KRBG for a few hours around sunrise again. Otherwise, expecting typical diurnal breezes this evening and Wednesday afternoon into the evening. && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Tuesday, July 7, 2026...Moderate north winds continue south of Cape Blanco, which will maintain steep seas through tonight. The thermal trough intensifies Wednesday, with gusty north winds and very steep seas expected south of Cape Blanco, and Small Craft Advisory winds and seas spreading north to Cape Arago. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but then returns with gusty north winds and steep seas during the weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1206 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026/ KEY POINTS... * Low chance (10-15 percent) of thunderstorms from Crater Lake north and northeast this afternoon. * Typical summer weather continues through the week. * Gusty winds and very low humidities possible east of the Cascades this weekend. * In the long term, a pattern change may bring monsoonal moisture and atmospheric instability. In this outcome, East Side thunderstorms are possible early next week. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows an extensive area of marine layer stratus along the coast, which has burned back from filling all of the coastal valleys and much of the Umpqua Basin this morning. Also, cumulus fields have developed along the Cascade crest. Otherwise, conditions are mostly clear on yet another relatively typical summer day. Southern Oregon and far northern California remain under southwest flow aloft, between a trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska, and broad strong ridging over the Four Corners and Central Plains. This will keep the weather in our area fairly stable, with dry conditions and high temperatures around 5 degrees above normal for this time of year, but there are a few caveats. The first is a very slight chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon along the Cascades from Crater Lake north, and to some areas to the northeast. Some residual energy, moisture, and instability remain behind the departing shortwave from yesterday, and this has already brought some cumulus development to that area as early as 10 am this morning. Likely, nothing will develop, and if it does, it will be highly isolated with little impact, but it is, as we say, a non-zero chance. Second, we will see the passage of a dry cold front Wednesday. Little will mark the passage of the fronts, other than a strong marine push, as they will be dissipating or weakening quite a bit before even making it onshore, but we do expect some increased winds Tuesday and to a lesser extent Wednesday afternoon. Today looks like the breezier day, with slightly weaker winds but drier conditions Wednesday. Then, after a rather mundane Thursday, another dry front arrives this weekend, likely with stronger winds and continued dry conditions Friday and Saturday afternoons. There are some fire weather concerns that arise during these periods, as very dry air will flow in ahead of these fronts. Most concerns will be concentrated over the East Side, in particular southern Lake County and Modoc County, but other locations such as the Rogue and Shasta valleys will be breezy and dry as well. Looking beyond this weekend, model suites show the southwest flow strengthening aloft as the offshore trough digs slightly south and the ridge over the central US strengthens and builds north. This would essentially set up a classic monsoonal pattern that could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but it is far too soon to know the exact timing and location. We will keep an eye on this over the coming days and update as necessary. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  745 FXUS64 KLUB 080338 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1038 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Daily thunderstorm chances return Thursday and continue through next week. - Hot temperatures continue through next week with a slight cool down beginning Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 After a quiet and pleasant Tuesday, a similar overnight period is expected. Current surface observations show light to moderate southeasterly winds. These upslope winds are causing higher terrain thunderstorms to develop across northeastern NM. However, these storms are not expected to reach our area. A lee surface trough currently across CO is expected to shift to the east by early Wednesday morning. This will result in shifting the winds to the southwest. Convergence along the southern boundary of the surface trough across the Texas Panhandle could result in isolated rain showers across northern zones of the CWA early in the morning. At the moment, chances for these rain showers are low, however cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, the night will be mild with lows in the upper 60s across the southwestern Texas Panhandle and upper 70s across the southern Rolling Plains. Wednesday will be very similar to today with dry conditions and hot temperatures. Upper ridging that expanded across the region today will prevail through Wednesday. Thickness increases due to the ridge will slightly warm temperatures Wednesday with highs in the upper 90s on the Caprock and triple digits off the Caprock. Early Wednesday morning, the aforementioned surface trough will tighten the pressure gradient giving way to breezy southwesterly winds through the early afternoon. Winds are expected to shift to the south to southeast later in the afternoon after the surface trough deamplifies and a secondary lee surface trough develops across southern CO and northern NM. Subsidence below the ridging will keep conditions dry. Southeasterly upslope flow will result in thunderstorms developing across northern NM. Northwesterly flow from the upper pattern will help scattered thunderstorms track to the southeast. CAMs are indicating these storms will die off before reaching our CWA border, however there is a low chance for these storms to sustain themselves and make their way into our northwestern corner. If this does occur, they are expected to be sub-severe and short-lived. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The main focus of the long term is hot temperatures and daily storm chances. The upper ridging mentioned in the short term discussion will slightly retreat Thursday, however slight thickness increases and southerly surface flow will bring hot temperatures again. Highs in the upper 90s are expected across the Caprock and triple digits off the Caprock. A passing upper embedded shortwave will aide in thunderstorm chances thursday evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeastern NM and shift southeast with the aide of upper northwesterly flow, however models indicate storms will reach the far southern Texas Panhandle during the evening before quickly dying out. The rest of the region is expected to remain dry. A similar set up is expected Friday, however with better surface moisture, we will see higher and more coverage thunderstorm chances. The upper ridging will slightly shift north although still sitting across southwestern CONUS. Another upper embedded shortwave will pass over NM and the Texas Panhandle. This will result in thunderstorms developing to the north and east of the forecast area before expanding into our region.Better coverage is expected Friday with thunderstorm chances across much of the caprock and northern portions off the Caprock. Over the weekend and the beginning of next week, the upper ridging will remain across southwestern CONUS, however is expected to expand northward across the Rockies while a very positively tilted upper trough sits across southeastern CONUS. Northwesterly flow with this regime and multiple passing shortwaves with bring daily thunderstorm chances through at least Tuesday. We will see upper 90s to lower 10s again on Friday and Saturday. The upper pattern change as well as daily precipitation chances will bring a slight cool down next week, however highs still remain in the 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 00Z TAFs VFR through period. Generally clear skies with a few afternoon cumulus will prevail along with light SE breezes veering SSW after 12Z/08. JW && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...13  848 FXUS64 KMAF 080343 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1043 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1038 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Low (20-30%) chance of showers/storms this afternoon over portions of the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos. Isolated (15-20%) storms will be possible over the Big Bend again on Wednesday. - Warmer than average temperatures persist throughout the work week, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 An upper-level ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon. Deep layer subsidence is keeping skies mostly sunny with dry conditions over the majority of our forecast area this afternoon. The exception could be down in Terrell County and portions of the Big Bend later this afternoon where a weak shortwave impulse rounding the southeastern periphery of the ridge could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms. We will maintain 10-20% POPs over this portion of our CWA through the late afternoon hours. The upper ridge will otherwise remain the dominant feature across our region through Wednesday night. Isolated showers/storms may develop over the southern Big Bend again Wednesday afternoon, but dry weather conditions are otherwise forecast to remain prevalent. Lows tonight and Wednesday night are mostly expected to range in the 60s to mid 70s. Highs Wednesday afternoon should reach into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees for most locations, except around 90 degrees over the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Very warm and dry conditions continue to be expected through the end of the work week owing to an upper-level ridge of high pressure over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Afternoon highs are forecast to range from the mid 90s to lower triple digits Thursday and Friday. Some spots along the Rio Grande look to see readings between 105 and 110 degrees on these days. It is worth stressing the increased risk of heat-related illness if you must be outside for an extended period of time under these conditions. To protect yourself from the heat, be sure to drink plenty of water/electrolyte beverages, take frequent breaks under shade or inside a building with air conditioning, and wear light-weight/light-colored clothing. Aside from the heat, surface troughing, southeasterly upslope flow, and disturbances aloft yield a low (10-30%) chance of isolated showers/storms over portions of the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau region and Guadalupe Mountains both days. Additional convection may develop across portions of southeast New Mexico Friday evening as a surface lee cyclone passes to our north. The aforementioned upper-level ridge of high pressure shifts towards the Central Rockies this weekend, allowing for high temperatures to cool a few degrees by Saturday. Shortwave impulses embedded within the periphery of the ridge provides upper-level moisture and forcing for ascent, increasing storm chances across much of the area on Sunday. At this time, the best chances currently look to reside in and around the Davis Mountains. Increased cloud cover and persistent southeasterly upslope flow yield cooler temperatures, with highs generally in the low-to-mid 90s Sunday and Monday. Greening && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. Convective chances will be nil, but forecast soundings develop a cu field late Wednesday morning/early afternoon, mainly West Texas terminals, w/bases ~ 4.5-5 kft AGL.&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 70 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 70 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 69 95 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 64 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 68 95 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 57 90 61 93 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 71 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 71 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 70 98 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...99  934 FXUS64 KMEG 080345 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase through Friday. Heat index values may reach Heat Advisory criteria as early as Thursday for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. The heat will continue into the weekend. - A slow-moving upper level disturbance will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon. Storm coverage will become more isolated on Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 00Z upper air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite trends still show an upper-level low located at the base of a longwave trough situated across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this upper level low have weakened considerably and have become elevated since sunset due to the loss of daytime instability. Late evening temperatures were in the 70s across the Mid-South. Recent rainfall and clearing skies overnight may result in the development of patchy fog, especially over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, West Tennessee, and portions of north Mississippi. The upper-level trough will gradually lift out of the Lower Mississippi Valley by Wednesday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, especially east of the Mississippi River. Conditions will remain favorable for diurnal pulse-type thunderstorms during peak heating. Strong wind gusts and localized heavy rain are possible with any strong storms. Convective coverage will diminish on Thursday and Friday as the recent wet pattern yields to a warmer and humid regime. Temperatures may climb into the mid 90s along and west of the Mississippi River. This heat, combined with high surface dewpoints, may necessitate a Heat Advisory on Thursday. There is moderate confidence that rain chances will increase over the upcoming weekend as upper-level flow transitions to the northwest, allowing for several shortwave troughs to enhance convective chances across the area with precipitable water values increasing again to 2 inches over the weekend. By early next week, confidence is high for a strong upper-level ridge to develop over the Central and Northern Plains. This lends to moderate confidence in drier northeasterly winds minimizing mostly afternoon and early evening rain chances across the Mid- South, especially north of I-40. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Light and variable winds are expected overnight as a surface boundary remains stalled across the area. Any saturated surfaces may see some reduction in visibility due to fog development. MVFR visibilities are most likely in any fog development. Slight southward propagation of the boundary is anticipated in the early morning hours, which could initiate showers and thunderstorms earlier than normal for a summertime pattern. The NAMnest has some showers near MEM as early as 14z, but the best chances of a thunderstorm remain confined to the afternoon hours. PPROB30s were carried for thunderstorm chances. Overall, expect VFR conditions outside of any fog or thunderstorms. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the Mid-South this week. Relative humidity levels are expected to stay above 40 percent with light 20ft winds. Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast daily during peak heating. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...DNM  980 FXUS63 KBIS 080347 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1047 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through tonight, but severe weather and heavy rain are no longer anticipated. - Cooler temperatures continue through Wednesday, followed by a strong warming trend through the weekend. - Very hot this weekend and early next week, with daily high temperatures and maximum heat indices around 95 to 105. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The risk for excessive rainfall appears to have shifted into north central and northeast South Dakota. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible though along the ND/SD border east of Lake Oahe into the overnight hours. Severe weather is also no longer anticipated this evening through tonight. A separate area of scattered showers across northwest and north central North Dakota may persist into the overnight hours. A mention of patchy fog was added to much of southwest and south central North Dakota from late tonight to mid Wednesday morning. Potential contributing factors to fog formation include fresh rainfall from earlier today, low dewpoint depressions, an east- northeast upslope flow, and existing low stratus. UPDATE Issued at 728 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Numerous thunderstorms are developing south of I-94 and east of Highway 83 early this evening. The main hazard from these storms will be torrential rainfall, which may cause localized flooding. Classic setup for excessive rainfall from training convection through this evening with 850 mb moisture transport vectors pointed into mid/low level frontogenesis and perpendicular to Corfidi vectors. Anomalously high precipitable water and deep warm cloud layers also support very high rainfall rates. Recent CAMs favor backbuilding convection as far west as Lake Oahe through late evening, but there is uncertainty which side of the ND/SD border this could fall on. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues as a short wave digs across the main flow aloft this afternoon bringing chances for thunderstorms in North Dakota. There is a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorm possible this afternoon along the MUCAPE axis along the North and South Dakota border. Precipitable water around 1.5 inches will move across the region supporting high rainfall rates which have been observed in South Dakota this morning. Localized flooding is possible if thunderstorms train over an area for a couple of hours. Some of the CAMs show an area of strong thunderstorms developing in the southern James River Valley this afternoon. However the southern James River Valley had an MCV roll through the region so the environment may be a little worked over. The greatest risk for strong storms remain in South Dakota. Daily chances will continue across the state as multiple waves move across the region as Quasi-zonal flow persists. CSU ML program and NSSL ML Program does highlight a low chance of severe weather Thursday into the weekend. Thursday is now outlooked for a marginal risk for large hail and damaging winds. Severe weather chances will continue through the week due increased instability, due to warmer temperatures, low level moisture, and multiple waves. Temperatures are forecast to slowly decrease by tomorrow into the 70s and 80s before ramping back up into the 80s and 90s by the weekend. An upper level ridge is forecast to build back over the west this coming weekend supporting a round of hot weather. The NBM 25th to 75th on Sunday does range from the lower 90s to lower 100s for KBIS. The current NBM forecast for Sunday and Monday is 100 and 99. Thus, there is high confidence in hot temperatures for early next week leading to heat headlines. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Scattered showers will remain possible across northwest and north central North Dakota into the overnight hours, as will a few showers and thunderstorms along the ND/SD border. Other than possible brief MVFR visibility restrictions from rainfall at KXWA and KMOT, major terminals are no longer expected to see significant impacts from showers or storms. MVFR/IFR ceilings have developed over much of southwest North Dakota this evening. The low ceilings could spread eastward over south central North Dakota later tonight into Wednesday morning, while persisting in the southwest. There could also be patchy fog across southwest and south central North Dakota later tonight into early Wednesday morning. Confidence in the presence, coverage, and intensity of fog is not high enough to mention in TAFs at this time. Winds through the forecast period will generally be southeast to northeast around 5-10 kts. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Hollan  060 FXUS63 KAPX 080350 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1150 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain/thunderstorms return midweek. Locally heavy rain is the primary concern. - Trending drier for much of the weekend into at least early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Shortwave ridging continues locally this afternoon before turning more zonal later tonight and eventually weakly troughed later Wednesday into Thursday. Attendant nearly stationary/slow-moving frontal boundary will make slow southeastward progress across northern Michigan Wednesday through Thursday, providing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Thursday, generally drier conditions expected to prevail locally. That said, latest trends continue to suggest there'll be a northern stream wave or two to monitor over the coming weekend into early next week for at least low precip chances as impressive ridging/heat dome builds upstream over the Front Range and central/southern Plains. Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated across much of northern MI this afternoon through tonight, although a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE and lake breeze processes may be enough to kick off an isolated shower/storm across the eastern U.P. this afternoon. Chances for this are low, but not quite low enough to not mention. Focus turns to the very late tonight through Thursday. Several pieces of shortwave energy will have influence across the area, along with a slow-moving boundary that'll crawl southeast across the forecast area through this time frame. By Wednesday morning, deep layer moisture expected to already be in place across the eastern U.P. with PWs in excess of 1.5-1.75". This moisture gradually sags south with time Wednesday afternoon/night into Thursday. Greatest instability on Wednesday with focus over northern areas as well -- with the heaviest rain potential during the day Wednesday across the eastern U.P., the tip of the mitt, perhaps stretching down into sections of northwest lower by late in the day. WPC maintains a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall across these areas. By Wednesday night into Thursday, best forcing gradually slides southeast, eventually shifting the axis of most numerous showers/ storms over a broader area of northern lower. WPC's excessive rain outlook for Thursday features much of northern lower in a Marginal Risk (level 1/4). Localized instances of flash flooding appear to be the main threat with these showers/storms, especially if the axis of best forcing and instability manifest across parts of the forecast area, given efficient rain production and potential for training convection. While this threat is area-wide, it's likely heightened for those where FFG is lowest as a result of heavy rain several days ago (tip of the mitt, parts of Leelanau, Antrim, Charlevoix counties). While severe weather doesn't appear to be a glaring threat, limited instability combined with increased flow aloft and 25-35 kts of 0- 6km shear may result in a few stronger storms capable of producing damaging winds Wednesday into Wednesday night. This lines up pretty well with SPC's latest D2 SWO that paints a Marginal Risk (level 1/5 across much of northern lower, with a higher threat for severe storms to our west across WI. This low end threat may continue across parts of northeast lower MI Thursday. Trending drier Friday into the weekend. Main story across the CONUS during this time likely to be impressive ridging/heat dome building across the Intermountain West into the nation's midsection (600+ dM 500mb heights possible by Monday -- some +2 to 3 sigma above climatological mean). Uncertainty exists how far north and east this feature builds late in the weekend into next week, which will play driver to our sensible weather locally. Latest trends suggest warming temperatures heading into early next week, with limited precip chances, but should this upper high remain suppressed south and west, additional precip chances would become more likely. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Some brief fog restrictions are possible again overnight at MBL/APN. Otherwise, clouds will be increasing Wednesday, earliest in the north (PLN/CIU). Showers will expand/develop southward Wed afternoon and evening, with TSRA possible at CIU/PLN and maybe APN. Cigs will eventually lower to MVFR at CIU/PLN/APN, with low-end VFR by Wed evening TVC/MBL. Light winds. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJG AVIATION...JZ  165 FXUS63 KGRB 080353 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts of north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. - There is a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms (15-30% chance) and heavy rain (15% chance) on Wednesday afternoon and evening, primarily across central and east- central Wisconsin. Damaging winds and localized flooding will be the main threats, but isolated large hail and a tornado are also possible. - Monitoring the potential for excessive heat early next week as high temperatures rise into the low to middle 90s on Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak sfc trough across northeast Wisconsin early this afternoon. Dewpoints have been creeping up this morning and are comfortably in the low to middle 60s. Meanwhile, a weak cold front is draped across western Lake Superior and central Minnesota, with upstream convective clusters developing across the northern Plains that will eventually influence our weather over the next 24 TO 36 hours. Scattered Afternoon/Evening Storms: With further daytime heating, instability is projected to rise into the 1000-1500 j/kg range this afternoon over north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. Low level moisture convergence will be favorable for pop up showers and storms along a weak surface trough, with 3-8 PM being the most favored time period. Brief wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and heavy downpours will be possible with any showers today before dissipating around mid- evening. Wednesday Afternoon and Evening Severe/Heavy Rain Risk: Attention turns to late tonight when the upstream cold front sags into northern Wisconsin, bringing clusters of thunderstorms across northern Wisconsin late tonight into Wednesday morning. This first round should exit by late morning, but its evolution (coverage & timing) will help determine the severe potential for late afternoon and evening. There is potential for outflow to create an effective front over central and east-central Wisconsin, but considerable uncertainty exists how this will evolve. If the atmosphere can recover, potential instability from 1500-2500 j/kg and effective shear of 25 to 30 kts will support organized storms from 3-9 PM. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but an organized storm could also produce isolated large hail and an isolated tornado. Locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches is under a 15% chance, with the greatest potential across central and east- central Wisconsin. Excessive Heat Potential Early Next Week: After the threat of strong storms ends Wednesday night, the slow moving front sags south on Thursday, leaving only light rain potential over central and east-central Wisconsin. High pressure then moves across the area on Friday through the weekend. By early next week, we will be monitoring the potential for excessive heat. A potent sub-tropical ridge is expected to build over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes in the 95-100 percentile. There is a 60-80% chance of 850 mb temps greater than 20C on Monday and Tuesday, which would equate to surface highs in the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected late this evening, with increasing mid and high clouds. Some patchy fog may develop for a time as dewpoints remain the mid 60s in spots. As a cold front slowly sags into the region, clusters of showers and storms and lower clouds are likely to impact the region from 09Z-16Z, with an additional round(s) Wednesday afternoon/evening. Continued to use TEMPO groups at all TAF sites to highlight the greatest potential for storms, but timing details will need to be fine-tuned as exact timing of the storms becomes clearer. MVFR ceilings and visibilities (locally IFR) will be possible within the shower/storm activity. Lingering showers and a few storms are expected Wednesday evening. Winds will remain mainly under 5 kts overnight, then become south to southwest Wednesday morning, with a few gusts around 15 kts. Winds will shift to the north and become variable Wednesday afternoon and evening behind the front. Fog is likely late Wednesday evening into early Thursday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC AVIATION.......Bersch  204 FXUS64 KHUN 080355 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1055 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1056 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the lower 90s each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Shower/storm activity from earlier this evening has dwindled in coverage and intensity, with just a lone shower moving across the NW AL landscape as of 10 PM. With the nocturnal inversion now in place and limited forcing, little to no shower activity is expected for the overnight. Areas that received heavier rainfall earlier today would be most prone to any fog development, along with the patchy fog that may typically occur in the narrow valleys of NE AL. That would include especially southern portions of Cullman County. A mid/upr closed low centered over the Mid-Miss Valley region will transform into more of an open wave and become increasingly sheared as it moves to the NE on Wednesday. Dynamic lift on its SE flank may once again help to trigger isolated to scattered areas of showers/storms. It is still difficult to forecast which areas may be more favored for convection tomorrow. One might reasonably suspect areas closer to the parent upr low. However, convergent low-level flow evident in streamline analyses (albeit weak) appears favored in southern portions of the area, which is collocated with a more favorable thermodynamic environment. Thus, the argument could be made for slightly higher POPs in southern areas. Apart from these other forcing mechanisms, convection will tend to be the result of differential sfc heating and outflow boundaries. The latest guidance suite suggests perhaps a weaker thermodynamic profile for Wednesday (than Tuesday), although some strong updrafts and thus downdrafts could occur capable of producing strong winds, but the threat for severe weather appears to be very small. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 On Thursday the sheared tendrils of mid/upr vorticity following the parent upr low/wave will cross the area, aiding in the the potential for shower/storm development once again. This would probably be favored in eastern areas per the guidance suite. POPs are thus a little higher there during peak heating in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, mean mid/upr-lvl flow will become more zonal in nature in the TN/OH Valleys amidst an increase in upr westerly flow in the southern branch of a split-flow jet. This will help to enhance shower/storm development to our north with the potential for outflows leading to further convection in our area. This actually goes for both Thursday and Friday. Thermodynamic profiles look downburst"y" both days, with steep low-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture, and high vertical theta-e differences present. Currently, we're just outlooked for "general" thunderstorm activity, which may be owing partly to the coverage expected, however, this may need to be watched over the coming days. Outside of any thick clouds and shower/storm presence, conditions will continue to feel summer-like with heat indices still pushing 100 degrees both days. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures willbe near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much of a threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration. Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may also result in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions have prevailed early this evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms over NW AL. Left VCTS as prevailing for now but will likely amend once this activity dies down with the loss of daytime heating. Additional thunderstorms are forecast tomorrow afternoon with medium chances (40-50%) peaking near the end of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25  245 FXUS64 KBRO 080356 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1056 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 * Hot conditions continue through the week. Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk each day, mainly in the Valley becoming more widespread this weekend. Heat indices will climb to between 100 and 110 degrees each day. * Daily thunderstorm chances will be low (generally under 20 percent) through Thursday, before increasing (to near 30 to 40 percent) Friday through Saturday. * There is generally a low risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The 500mb ridge is expected to pivot west towards Southern California into late this week, before working northeast towards the Northern Plains over the weekend and early next week. This will allow weaker pressure and increasing moisture to settle along the lower Texas coast for much of the forecast period, generally maintaining isolated sea breeze showers or thunderstorms each afternoon from east to west. The best chance of rain will occur Friday into Saturday, currently near 30 to 40 percent, with a shortwave disturbance along the coast increasing instability and a surge of above normal moisture Thursday through Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms late this week into next week will be efficient rain makers with rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour. Have heavily tweaked NBM POP grids into Day 5 to be a bit more realistic with coverage into Saturday and lean into typical sea breeze timing. Mid summer temperatures into the mid to upper 90s for most inland locations continue, with a cooler beach and warmer brush country. Expect a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through much of the forecast period, with brief relief where clouds, showers, or thunderstorms can develop. Long period swell increases into the weekend and early next week offshore, potentially bringing a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents along the lower Texas coast. Astronomical tides build this weekend as we near the New Moon, which may narrow already narrow beaches at high tide cycles this weekend into next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with breezy southeasterly winds diminishing this evening and returning mid to late Wednesday morning. An isolated shower or thunderstorm along the sea breeze may develop Wednesday afternoon and progress from east to west. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the coastal waters through most of the forecast period with strong high pressure northwest of the Gulf. Expect an afternoon chop each day on the bay, with Gulf seas of generally 2 to 3 feet, gradually building towards 3 to 4 feet late this weekend into next week with longer period swells. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 94 79 93 / 0 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 77 96 75 94 / 0 10 10 20 MCALLEN 79 99 78 97 / 0 20 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 87 / 0 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 78 91 / 0 10 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...56-Hallman