887 FXUS66 KSEW 080410 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 910 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .UPDATE... No major changes to the inherited forecast this evening. A decaying front is tracking across the area with little to no precipitation. Though, low-level onshore flow has picked up with 25 mph wind gusts observed over Whidbey Island so far tonight. Marine stratus will become widespread overnight into Wednesday morning. Low temperatures are forecast to bottom out between the lower to upper 50s. The previous discussion remains below along with an updated marine/aviation section: && .SYNOPSIS... Warm conditions will persist for the interior today ahead of cooler conditions through the remainder of the week. A weak frontal system will bring slight chances of rain to higher elevations on Wednesday, with dry conditions through the rest of the week. Drier and warmer conditions are forecast early next week as high pressure builds over the western US. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Warm temperatures will remain in place across the interior today under southwest flow aloft as the next weather system approaches. Highs are on track to peak in the upper 70s to low 80s for areas surrounding and south of the Puget Sound. Areas along the water will see cooler temperatures today peaking in the 60s as onshore flow continues to bring in marine air. A weakening frontal system will cross the region tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing in cooler temperatures alongside chances for drizzle. Weak convergence may form some showers behind the frontal passage over the northern Puget Sound, but confidence is low over whether this convergence would produce any measurable rainfall. Increased onshore flow will cause low stratus to expand inland Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with sunshine returning each afternoon. Highs will peak near normal in the mid 70s across the lowlands and in the mid 60s along the coast. In addition, with flow shifting onshore, smoke from nearby wildfires will remain north and east of western Washington. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A low pressure system stalled over Vancouver Island will swing a weak front across western Washington on Friday, bringing chances for light rain over the northern Olympic Peninsula and North Cascades. Elsewhere, onshore flow will continue to promote morning low clouds breaking up by the afternoon. This storm system will slowly meander eastward to the north, limiting chances for rain in western Washington over the weekend. Temperatures will continue to hover near normal on Saturday and Sunday, and instability from the nearby storm system will bring chances for isolated thunderstorms (5%-10%) along the Canada border. High pressure will continue to build over the central US early next week, with a deep low pressure system dropping southward in the Gulf of Alaska. This will promote warmer temperatures across western Washington with southwest flow aloft, but uncertainty remains over the degree of warming by early next week. Ensembles show a most likely scenario of highs in the upper 70s to low 80s next Monday and Tuesday. 15 && .AVIATION... A closed low over central British Columbia will maintain west/southwesterly flow over the area tonight. Expecting stratus to fill back into the region this evening, first along the coast then seeping inland with the help of a weak frontal system that will move across the area overnight into early Wednesday. Probabilities for MVFR or lower cigs will increase between around 10-13Z. Periods of IFR or lower conditions cannot be ruled out area-wide, though the highest likelihood is along the coast and into the Kitsap Peninsula. Expect cigs to scatter behind the frontal passage after around 18- 21Z Wed, with the exception of over the central Puget Sound area where post-frontal convergence will keep lower cigs and place and perhaps squeeze out some light showers or drizzle. Relatively light winds expected for the remainder of the overnight with west to southwest winds turning more north in the late afternoon/early evening Wednesday. KSEA...VFR conditions continue through late tonight. MVFR cigs expected to return after around 09-11Z Wed with periods of IFR possible, mostly likely between 13-17Z Wed. A slow lift is expected with low-end VFR conditions possible after around 21Z Wed. Convergence behind the front look to keep ceilings in the picture through much of the day. Light west to northwest winds this evening will trend more southerly overnight, 5 kt or less. SW winds resume during the day and will likely turn to W to NW by Wednesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Broad high pressure will continue over area waters through Thursday. A weak frontal system will move across the waters late tonight into early Wednesday. However, high pressure is expected to immediately rebuild behind the front. High pressure will weaken late in the week as a low pressure system prepares to swing south towards area waters. Onshore flow will continue the rest of the week through Strait of Juan de Fuca. A stronger push of westerlies has arrived this evening through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and a Gale Warning is in effect through Thursday morning. Small craft winds are also spilling into Admiralty Inlet this afternoon, and a small craft advisory will continue through the early overnight hours. Another strong push is expected Wednesday afternoon. Guidance still supports a 55-65% chance of gales through the Strait of Juan de Fuca Wednesday afternoon, and the Gale Warning has been issued Wednesday afternoon. Additional headlines are possible throughout the rest of the week. Seas expected to remain below 10 ft through the weekend. Portions of the coastal waters may see steep seas on Wednesday/Thursday as seas build to 6-8 ft with a dominant period of 7-8 seconds. 29 && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire concerns will remain low through the week with continued onshore flow bringing moist air into the region. This will promote higher humidities across western Washington with good overnight recoveries. Warming and drying is forecast early next week, though conditions are not expected to reach critical fire weather thresholds. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning from 2 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Admiralty Inlet. && $$  434 FXUS66 KLOX 080418 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 918 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...07/207 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge building over the region. Some relief from the heat is likely this weekend as the ridge breaks down and opens the door for possible monsoon showers or thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...07/207 PM. High confidence in moderate heat risk away from the coast through at least Thursday in response to a ridge peaking near 596 dm over the region Wednesday and Thursday before gradually weakening and shifting into the Four Corners region this weekend. No changes to the associated Heat Advisory that runs through Friday. Heat will peak for most areas Wednesday and Thursday before a decent cooling trend begins Friday. Peak highs are expected to be 70s to mid 80s near the coast, 90-105 valleys and lower mountains/desert. Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening (advisory in effect) and possible again Wednesday and Thursday evenings for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well as interior areas due to combined hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Night to morning low clouds will mostly be relegated to the Central Coast, although an eddy in response to the Sundowner winds may squeeze pockets of low clouds and dense fog under the building ridge, especially for southern Los Angeles County. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/206 PM. The ridge at least briefing breaks down this weekend before likely nosing back into the region during the middle part of next week. Broad southeast to southerly flow aloft will support a 10-20 percent chance (highest mountains and deserts) of monsoon showers or thunderstorms this weekend into next week. The added moisture may add to at least low to moderate heat risk in the region, with heat potentially building closer to the coast. && .AVIATION...08/0417Z. At 0346z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top of 2000 ft deep with a temperature of 27 C. High confidence in VFR for KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, cigs may be off by 1-3 hours. Low confidence in cigs for KSBA and southward, but there is a 30% chance for brief cigs. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no low clouds developing this evening. Low clouds could arrive as late a 14Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...07/849 PM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Thursday across the Outer Waters. There is a 50-70% chance of Gale Force winds Wednesday afternoon and again Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid- week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend. SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel greatest during the afternoon and evening hours through at least Thursday. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoons/evenings through Thursday. For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through tonight. Otherwise, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday forzones 38-88-343>345-353-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zone 368. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe AVIATION...Phillips/Rorke MARINE...RM/Lund/CC/SF SYNOPSIS...RM weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  535 FXUS65 KGJT 080422 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1022 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue today, favoring the terrain. - Chances for wetting rains remain low. Gusty outflow winds and dry lightning pose threats for new/existing wildfires. - Localized critical fire weather conditions emerge Thursday for southeast UT and southwest CO. - Afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal are forecast this weekend, with triple digits possible in most desert valley areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 LINGERING MOISTURE: The area of high pressure centered over the Four Corners will shift west today, cutting off the Western Slope from the little surge of moisture we've been under the last few days. Drier air begins to advect in from the west, although enough moisture is expected to linger in the mid-levels to keep the chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This activity will favor the higher terrain along the Divide, as well as the higher terrain of the eastern Uintas. Surface levels remain dry, limiting the potential for any wetting rain. A few hundredths to maybe a tenth of an inch are possible. The primary threats with any storms will be outflow winds capable of producing 35-45 mph gusts, and frequent lightning. Some of this moisture could linger into Thursday, mainly along the Northern Divide mountains, with similar impacts. FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL: Winds are expected to be relatively light through the next seven days, outside of those enhanced by nearby convection. However, an area of elevated winds is expected around the Four Corners, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible. As a result, localized critical fire weather conditions will be possible in this area. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN: As high pressure builds back into the Southwest this weekend, hotter and drier conditions will return for the Western Slope. Daily humidity minimums will be in the single digits to low teens, and temperatures will jump to 5-15 degrees above normal. Triple digit highs are likely for the lower elevations starting on Saturday and carrying into next week. For Grand Junction, it looks as though we'll get close to the all-time record high of 107 on Sunday, as the current forecast has a high of 106. Luckily, winds will remain on the lighter side, limiting fire weather concerns through the period. Even still, be aware of potential spark sources if out recreating this weekend. Additionally, be mindful if spending time outdoors in heat. Be sure to stay hydrated, wear loose and light-colored clothing, and limit activity during the hottest part of the day. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 522 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Gusty winds are on the decline this evening, though ongoing thunderstorms may still drop strong outflows over some terminals, mostly over the high terrain. Thunderstorm potential diminishes over the next couple hours though, leaving few to scattered cloud cover with little impacts. VFR conditions should prevail for most locations, but look for brief periods of MVFR conditions due to reduced vis should any lingering strong storms pass over a terminal. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow with the highest chance of precipitation over HDN. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Isolated dry thunderstorm concerns continue today and possibly into Thursday before storm potential almost entirely diminishes. Surface relative humidity values remain low, below 20%, across the lower elevations. Greater surface relative humidity values in the higher terrain, especially across the highest elevations of the San Juan Mountains,should allow for more rain to reach ground. Chances of wetting rains remain low, under 10%, but not zero. A few storms could be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall through the evening which, if they track over an active fire or burn scar, could prompt debris flow concerns. The probability of this remains low, but non-negligible. Dry thunderstorms still remain a concern through the evening hours, bringing about a risk of new lightning ignitions and gusty outflow winds which could impact new and existing wildfires. As hotter and drier conditions settle in Friday and into the weekend, fire conditions could become exacerbated. Lighter winds are expected through the weekend, however pockets of 25-35 mph gusts are possible across southwest Colorado and Southeast Utah. Coverage of these gustier winds will be limited, however, keeping critical fire weather conditions localized. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...BGB/TGJT  528 FXUS65 KVEF 080422 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 922 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over portions of northern Mohave County this afternoon, but otherwise, dry conditions with warming temperatures will continue through the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Through next Monday. A seasonably hot day is underway across the region this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies for most of the area. An area of agitated cumulus has popped up over far northeastern Mohave County, where isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon. Very little rainfall is expected from this convection, though lightning strikes and gusty downburst winds could accompany the stronger showers and thunderstorms. This activity will drift east of the area prior to sunset, with dry conditions otherwise expected. As ridging continues building over the region, increasing thicknesses will allow temperatures to continue warming through the end of the week, topping out around 5 to 7 degrees above normal and resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4) and pockets of localized Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4). This heat will be dangerous for anyone spending time outdoors without adequate hydration or access to shade and air conditioning, especially those who are vulnerable to heat- related illnesses. In addition to the heat and dry conditions, afternoon breezes are expected each day, which will maintain a heightened fire risk across much of southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona. As the aforementioned ridge builds and settles over the Four Corners Region, prevailing southerly flow around its periphery will allow for an influx of monsoonal moisture into the area beginning this weekend. By Sunday, ensemble guidance indicates mean precipitable water values exceeding 1.00 inch along and south of I-15, with moisture continuing to work its way northward through the end of the forecast period and beyond. Fairly broadbrushed precipitation chances return to the area by next Monday, though fine-scale details regarding precise location and timing of potential thunderstorms will be refined in later forecasts. The main takeaway is that while hot temperatures look to stick around, cluster analyses, ensemble guidance, and climatology all lean toward a more traditional monsoon thunderstorm pattern becoming established beginning early next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Similar wind patterns to the past few days are expected through the upcoming TAF period. Light southwest winds tonight will become light and variable Wednesday morning. Winds around 18Z may vary 150 to 180 (true) as speeds pick up to around 8KT. Isolated gusts over 15KT are possible with these south to southeast winds. By 21Z, the winds become southwest and gusts more frequent, gusting over 20KT through the afternoon. Winds will diminish like most evenings as southwest wind at 8KT or less develop for the evening and overnight period. VFR skies persist. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 18Z through 04Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package..Other than at KDAG where west winds at 10-15KT will persist through the night, light winds under 10KT are expected across the region. On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will develop by the afternoon with speed around 10KT and gusts 15-25KT. Winds will diminish after sunset for much of the region, except KDAG where gusty west-southwest winds are expected to develop around 00Z. VFR skies expected through the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Phillipson AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  687 FXUS64 KLIX 080429 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1129 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. - Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle. - Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Not a lot of difference in coverage of storms for today when compared to yesterday. The biggest difference will be new locations may get storms where they did not yesterday and some areas that were hit yesterday will get hit again today. Very typical for summer. Higher PW values will move through in waves for the next several days, at least through Friday. These higher values move through during the day and lower at night giving way to a diurnally driven storm environment. The weekend will be a bit different as high PW values come in and stay for a few days which means more coverage of heavy rainfall potential. Each day will carry the same potential for strong/severe storms which is pretty much every day there are any storms present during the summer. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Upper ridging is expected to build across the Rockies over the next few days. As that ridge builds into the central Plains early next week, there will be a weakness in the 500 mb pattern between that ridge and one between the Bahamas and Bermuda. That weakness or trough will move from the Ohio Valley Saturday, into our area by Monday and into the eastern Gulf Tuesday. A weak surface boundary may also be associated with the trough. Precipitable water values are expected to be near or above the 90th percentile Saturday night through Monday (2.10 inches) and possibly topping out around 2.3 inches on Monday before dropping to near the mean (1.7 inches) by late Tuesday. This should enhance (scattered to numerous) convective coverage during convectively favored times Sunday and Monday...peak heating hours over land zones, late night and morning in marine areas. Of course, with precipitable water values that high, there will be a threat of at least localized heavy rainfall, but pinpointing exactly where that will occur 5 or 6 days from now is problematical. As the column dries out somewhat late on Tuesday, we'll probably see less areal coverage of convection, and a lesser threat of heavy rainfall, but low level lapse rates steepen and DCAPE values increase to over 1000 j/kg, so the wind threat will increase. Still looks to be rather warm on Sunday, as storms may not develop until mid-afternoon, with highs probably 90 to 95. Areal coverage of storms increases Monday and likely develops a little earlier, so slightly lower high temperatures should be expected. Guidance from the Tuesday global operational models was within a degree or two of each other, so there's not likely to be much of a shift in the NBM numbers. Won't entirely rule out the need for a Heat Advisory Sunday, but at this point, the numbers say it's borderline at best. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 TSRA today will be timed in PROB30 groups as coverage will be somewhat similar to yesterday. Terminals that are impacted by TSRA will produce at most MVFR conditions temporarily. All activity will begin to decay with the loss of daytime heating. Outside TSRA, VFR will be the rule at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Winds will remain from a WSW direction through much of the week and speeds will remain mostly around 10kt but a few days could rise to near 15kt. Winds shift to due south then to the southeast by the weekend but remain around 10kt. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, mostly during the morning hours. A few may be strong producing erratic gusty winds and/or waterspouts, with locally hazardous seas. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE  735 FXUS64 KEPZ 080430 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1030 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening but thunderstorm chances increase over the weekend and into Monday. - Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-102; except highs Thursday/Friday 101-106. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Summertime subtropical high is anchored over the Desert SW this evening with a moisture plume extending across the AZ-NM border up into the Central and Northern Rockies and High Plains. Considerable mid-level dry air has pushed south from the Plains and into much of the CWA. 00z sounding showed a meager 0.53" PW, and as a result, convective coverage has been notably lower, limited mainly to the Gila. Moisture across Central and Northern NM will pivot back to the south for Wednesday, and the GFS and NAM show PWs increasing back closer to an inch. Convective coverage should therefore increase. NBM was very pessimistic for the lowlands with POPs below 15%, but I increased them in line with the moisture increase and N'LY flow aloft. It shouldn't take much to drive isolated storms into the lowlands on outflows, and the HRRR supports this theory. We essentially repeat this pattern again Thursday though the center of the 500 mb high will nudge to the west. Highs will also creep upward through Friday with most lowlands above 100. Friday will start a transition. The 500 mb high will center itself back over NM, but it will also start shifting north. Initially, this will lower convective coverage given the proximity of the high, but the northward shift will allow moisture to move in from Mexico with highest POPs across the mountains and the International Border Friday night. As we go into the weekend and into next week, the high will continue to shift northward before centering itself near WY. This will allow an increase in moisture, decrease in highs, and increase in storm and rain chances. Rotating around the high will be inverted troughs though the GFS and Euro do not agree on their positions. POPs remain broad- brushed by the NBM, generally ranging 20-50% for any given 6 hour period. Heavy rain would be the main concern with these storms with the GFS showing PWs near 1.5". && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected with FEW-SCT250, but FEW- SCT050-150 will be more likely late afternoon and into tomorrow evening. ISO TSRA/SHRA cannot be ruled out after 21z, but chance of occurrence is low. These storms will also trigger outflow boundaries with subsequent wind shifts. Outside of storms, winds will be light, generally from the southeast with speeds near 10 knots and occasional gusts to 20 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Near critical to critical min RHs persists in the lowlands today through Saturday with values generally 11-20%. Area mountain min RHs will generally be 20-35%. 20 foot winds each afternoon will stay light at 5-10 mph with calm winds overnight. Daily thunderstorm chances exists for the mountains each day through Saturday with isolated storms in the lowlands. Sunday and early next week looks potentially more active with more areawide rain chances with a tropical system potentially heading over the area at this time. This will increase min RHs above critical thresholds Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be near seasonal today and tomorrow but even hotter temperatures expected Thursday through Saturday with Friday being the hottest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 100 77 102 / 0 0 20 20 Sierra Blanca 63 94 67 96 / 0 0 0 20 Las Cruces 67 98 70 100 / 0 0 20 20 Alamogordo 68 97 73 100 / 0 10 20 20 Cloudcroft 51 74 54 76 / 0 20 20 40 Truth or Consequences 69 98 71 100 / 0 10 20 20 Silver City 64 92 65 94 / 10 30 20 50 Deming 66 100 68 103 / 0 0 20 20 Lordsburg 69 99 70 100 / 10 10 20 20 West El Paso Metro 74 99 77 101 / 0 0 20 20 Dell City 66 97 69 99 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 71 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 20 Loma Linda 65 92 69 94 / 0 0 20 20 Fabens 71 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Teresa 70 97 73 100 / 0 0 20 20 White Sands HQ 74 99 77 101 / 0 10 20 20 Jornada Range 68 98 72 100 / 0 10 20 20 Hatch 69 102 71 104 / 0 10 20 20 Columbus 72 101 74 104 / 0 0 20 30 Orogrande 67 96 70 99 / 0 10 20 20 Mayhill 55 86 58 88 / 0 20 20 60 Mescalero 54 86 58 88 / 0 20 20 30 Timberon 52 82 55 84 / 0 20 20 20 Winston 59 90 61 92 / 0 50 20 40 Hillsboro 66 96 69 98 / 0 20 20 30 Spaceport 65 97 67 100 / 0 10 20 20 Lake Roberts 57 93 59 95 / 10 60 20 50 Hurley 63 95 65 97 / 10 20 20 50 Cliff 64 98 65 100 / 10 30 20 40 Mule Creek 62 95 63 96 / 20 30 20 20 Faywood 64 93 66 95 / 0 20 20 40 Animas 69 100 71 101 / 10 10 20 40 Hachita 67 99 69 100 / 0 0 20 30 Antelope Wells 69 99 70 100 / 0 0 20 40 Cloverdale 65 94 66 94 / 10 10 20 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown  864 FXUS63 KUNR 080434 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1034 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Active through mid week as a series of disturbances move through the region, with severe thunderstorms possible today, more isolated Wed and Thur -Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Monday) Issued at 1025 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Impulse filled westerly flow will be in place over the region through Thursday as a frontal boundary remains in place. Near daily chances for thunderstorms can be expected with severe storms possible at times, best chances today. Sfc front stalled across the FA today. The front has settled further south that previous model runs indicated yesterday, with a southward shift of the best severe potential. Moderately strong impulse will kick out of WY/MT in the the afternoon and evening and will drive CI there. Storms may also fire along the Pine Ridge and INVOF of the front if capping can be overcome. Another location for CI will be northern BH if the inhibition is also overcome. Given progged ML CAPE of 1-2.5 KJ/KG, deep bulk layer shear of 35 to 45 knots (highest north of the sfc front), expect supercells to be possible with strong rotating updrafts, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Best chances for rotating storms will be along and north of the sfc front. Still a very small window for tornadoes with any storms near the sfc front, which will start shifting SW into SW SD this afternoon. Storms will carry across the region through the evening and overnight, possibly lingering into the morning Wed as elevated activity. More storms are possible Wed and Thur as sufficient LL moisture will be in place with weak stability and additional impulses. The best chances for storms will be across the western third Wed with chances expanding to the entire FA Thur. Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend, with dry and hot conds expected. Impressive temps of 35 to almost 40C at h85 with close to 6000 H5 heights over WY, will offer record to near record highs well into the 100s with 110 to 115 possible on portions of the Plains, esp Sunday and Monday. Ridge begins to breaks down across the Northern Plains the middle of next week, with storm chances returning as the active northern periphery of the ridge settles south. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1032 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thunderstorms will continue move across western South Dakota over the next couple of hours. Frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds can be expected with any stronger convective cores. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions also expected around any heavier precipitation cores. Conditions will begin to improve around 09z as storms diminish and move out of the region. Areas of lower ceilings and patchy fog may develop over northwestern South Dakota between 06z and 17z; MVFR/IFR conditions are possible. Another round of storms will begin to develop over northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota starting around 08/19z and lasting through the remainder of the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...Schultz  860 FXUS66 KSGX 080434 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 934 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to strengthen and move closer to the region through the middle of the week, bringing hotter weather and increased heat risk to inland regions. Slow cooling occurs by the weekend as the area of high pressure moves to the northeast. In its wake, monsoonal moisture moves into the region on Sunday into at least the first half of next week. This will bring increased rain chances to inland areas with greater humidity for all. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... Low clouds cleared beautifully off the coast this morning with clear skies remaining over inland areas. Time to turn up the heat this week! High temperatures will begin to feel warmer each day through Thursday as a 595 dm high over the Arizona/New Mexico border moves east and subtly strengthens. By Wednesday and Thursday, 850 mb readings go near to just over 30C over the deserts, highest over all on Thursday when the peak of the heat is expected to occur. High temperatures will range from 100-105 across the Inland Empire, locally higher in the high desert. Lower deserts will see hot temperatures near 114-117 degrees. Even the mountains will be hot, so please do not venture outdoors during the late morning or afternoon hours as temperatures soar into the upper 80s to mid 90s. High temperatures for select mountain areas on Wednesday and Thursday will be near 95 in Julian, and upper 80s in Idyllwild, Big Bear and Lake Arrowhead. Moderate to major heat risk is expected during this time for inland regions, so please take breaks, drink plenty of water and check on family and friends if you must be outside for long periods of time. Temperatures will be near average toward the coast as the marine layer keeps these regions generously cooler in the 70s and lower 80s. Low clouds will move into the coast and far western valleys each night. && .LONG TERM... By Friday, the area of high pressure slowly weakens, which will pull down temperatures by a few degrees, but still warm. The high begins to shift to the northeast as a troughing pattern develops off the West Coast. Clockwise flow around the high with the help of the trough off the coast will help funnel in subtropical moisture from the south and southwest. This will aid in an increase in humidity and a chance for showers and thunderstorms as the monsoon begins to wake up. Saturday looks to remain dry, with slightly more humid conditions. By sometime on Sunday, the area of high pressure moves closer to the Four Corners region, providing a better opportunity for increased moisture to enter the Desert Southwest. Model guidance is in good agreement on increasing PWAT values through the early part of next week. Exact details on timing and who sees rain or storms from this is still very preliminary. NBM shows chances for precipitation starting Sunday into at least the middle of next week across the mountains and deserts, locally into far inland valleys. As for temperatures, the region will still remain warm with highs well into the 90s across the Inland Empire and high desert, and 80s for the mountains and western valleys. && .AVIATION... 080430Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 800-1200 ft have developed offshore, re-developing and pushing inland 15-20 miles inland 06-10Z, and into OC 09-13z. Vis restrictions of 3-5 SM possible near KCRQ and other higher coastal terrain. Low clouds and any vis restrictions will scatter 15-17Z. VFR through the afternoon. Low clouds with similar bases re-develop offshore after 00z Thu. .Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Gusts near 21 kt are expected through this evening in the outer waters, especially near San Clemente Island. Winds will decrease into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains- San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink  907 FXUS61 KRLX 080436 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1236 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains on track and is consistent with the previous package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and into the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Locally heavy rainfall will remain a possibility throughout the rest of the work week and into the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place amid some forcing from a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves. Steering flow remains light today, at 10 knots or less, but does pickup from Thursday into the weekend as upper air dynamics begin to rule. This will mean mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today will become more driven by the upper air pattern for Thursday into the weekend. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend. With the ground already saturated in many locations, localized flash flooding remains a threat. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dense fog is possible early this morning, especially at locations receiving rainfall last afternoon and evening. Expect a cumulus deck to form by mid morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms causing restrictions this afternoon and evening. Dense fog can be expected again Wednesday night where rainfall occurs this afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and density of fog early this morning could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/08/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H L L M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L M M M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions associated with thunderstorms remain possible into the weekend, more likely in the afternoon and evening hours. Dense fog is possible each night in areas that receive rainfall the afternoon and evening before. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY  909 FXUS64 KLUB 080436 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1135 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Daily thunderstorm chances return Thursday and continue through next week. - Hot temperatures continue through next week with a slight cool down beginning Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 After a quiet and pleasant Tuesday, a similar overnight period is expected. Current surface observations show light to moderate southeasterly winds. These upslope winds are causing higher terrain thunderstorms to develop across northeastern NM. However, these storms are not expected to reach our area. A lee surface trough currently across CO is expected to shift to the east by early Wednesday morning. This will result in shifting the winds to the southwest. Convergence along the southern boundary of the surface trough across the Texas Panhandle could result in isolated rain showers across northern zones of the CWA early in the morning. At the moment, chances for these rain showers are low, however cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, the night will be mild with lows in the upper 60s across the southwestern Texas Panhandle and upper 70s across the southern Rolling Plains. Wednesday will be very similar to today with dry conditions and hot temperatures. Upper ridging that expanded across the region today will prevail through Wednesday. Thickness increases due to the ridge will slightly warm temperatures Wednesday with highs in the upper 90s on the Caprock and triple digits off the Caprock. Early Wednesday morning, the aforementioned surface trough will tighten the pressure gradient giving way to breezy southwesterly winds through the early afternoon. Winds are expected to shift to the south to southeast later in the afternoon after the surface trough deamplifies and a secondary lee surface trough develops across southern CO and northern NM. Subsidence below the ridging will keep conditions dry. Southeasterly upslope flow will result in thunderstorms developing across northern NM. Northwesterly flow from the upper pattern will help scattered thunderstorms track to the southeast. CAMs are indicating these storms will die off before reaching our CWA border, however there is a low chance for these storms to sustain themselves and make their way into our northwestern corner. If this does occur, they are expected to be sub-severe and short-lived. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The main focus of the long term is hot temperatures and daily storm chances. The upper ridging mentioned in the short term discussion will slightly retreat Thursday, however slight thickness increases and southerly surface flow will bring hot temperatures again. Highs in the upper 90s are expected across the Caprock and triple digits off the Caprock. A passing upper embedded shortwave will aide in thunderstorm chances thursday evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeastern NM and shift southeast with the aide of upper northwesterly flow, however models indicate storms will reach the far southern Texas Panhandle during the evening before quickly dying out. The rest of the region is expected to remain dry. A similar set up is expected Friday, however with better surface moisture, we will see higher and more coverage thunderstorm chances. The upper ridging will slightly shift north although still sitting across southwestern CONUS. Another upper embedded shortwave will pass over NM and the Texas Panhandle. This will result in thunderstorms developing to the north and east of the forecast area before expanding into our region. Better coverage is expected Friday with thunderstorm chances across much of the caprock and northern portions off the Caprock. Over the weekend and the beginning of next week, the upper ridging will remain across southwestern CONUS, however is expected to expand northward across the Rockies while a very positively tilted upper trough sits across southeastern CONUS. Northwesterly flow with this regime and multiple passing shortwaves with bring daily thunderstorm chances through at least Tuesday. We will see upper 90s to lower 10s again on Friday and Saturday. The upper pattern change as well as daily precipitation chances will bring a slight cool down next week, however highs still remain in the 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR and generally light winds will continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...19  081 FXUS62 KRAH 080441 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1241 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 243 PM Tuesday... 1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh. 2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 PM Tuesday... 1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh. A moist and unstable air mass will remain in place across central North Carolina through Wednesday as weak mid-level flow and a backdoor cold front sagging south from Virginia provide a favorable environment for scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Most deterministic and convection-allowing guidance suggests the greatest convective coverage will occur each afternoon and evening, with outflow boundaries being the focus this afternoon and evening and the backdoor front and any residual outflow boundaries serving as primary foci for storm development on Wednesday. While widespread organized severe weather is not expected, moderate instability will support a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with stronger multicells. The severe weather risk should remain highest where storms can interact with the southward-moving boundary, especially across northern half of the forecast area. The flash flood threat may ultimately become the greater concern. Deep tropical moisture, slow storm motions, and the potential for repeated development along the frontal zone could produce localized heavy rainfall totals. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues to highlight the greatest concern across the northern and northeastern portions of central North Carolina both today and Wednesday, where the proximity of the backdoor front may favor more persistent or training convection. Localized flash flooding will be possible, particularly in urban areas and other flood-prone locations where multiple rounds of heavy rainfall occur. 2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through Saturday. Each day through the end of the work week is expected to trend a degree or two hotter as afternoon temperatures climb into the lower and middle 90s. Combined with continued high humidity, heat indices will likely reach or exceed 100 degrees across much of central North Carolina during this time. The experimental HeatRisk forecast shows major (Level 3 of 4) continuing or perhaps expanding a bit each day south and east of the Triad through Saturday. This level of heat can be dangerous for anyone without adequate cooling or hydration, especially those spending extended periods outdoors. A weak front approaching late in the weekend should bring at least modest relief beginning Sunday, with temperatures easing back closer to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1241 AM Wednesday... Some isolated pockets of convection continue near RWI this morning, otherwise conditions have dried out and remain VFR. As a weak backdoor cold front approaches from the northeast overnight, we should see at least some amount of MVFR stratus make a run at GSO/INT/RDU/RWI closer to daybreak. In addition, abundant rainfall Tuesday evening should set the stage for at least some MVFR vsbys through daybreak although quite a bit of high cloud cover should prevent this from becoming widespread/dense. Attention turns toward the afternoon where the presence of a stalled surface boundary and lee troughing should serve as the focus for another round of afternoon showers and storms. The most widespread convection is expected from approx 20Z - 02Z before waning after midnight. Brief MVFR restrictions can be expected within any given thunderstorm. Outlook: A persistent summertime pattern will support generally VFR conditions outside of daily afternoon and evening convection through the end of the week. Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible in thunderstorms each day, with localized late night or early morning fog or stratus following heavier rainfall. Outside of convection, no widespread or prolonged aviation impacts are expected. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...np AVIATION...Leins/np  115 FXUS63 KOAX 080442 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-normal temperatures continue through the work week, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. - Periodic chances for storms Wednesday through Friday. Main hazards with any strong to severe storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding. - A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected this weekend into next week. Excessive heat is a concern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet weather is expected tonight, but a gradual increase in middle to upper- level clouds are an indication of changes to come. Overall, light winds and mostly clear skies can be expected overnight as temperatures fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will slide east across the Upper Midwest, pushing a cold front into northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. A few showers or storms may linger as the front pushes into the area, but these should be limited and weakening. Temperatures warm into the lower 90s during the afternoon, helping to erode the capping inversion. Concurrently, a secondary shortwave moves east out of the central Rockies. This feature and the cold front help to initiate storms along the front by mid-afternoon across northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa. Storms gradually sag southeast through the afternoon and evening along the front, approaching the I-80 corridor during the evening, before moving into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning. There is a marginal to slight risk (5-15% chance) of severe storms with this activity. The main hazards will be damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding with any strong to severe storms. Overall, limited wind shear and high cloud bases should help to limit much of the severe risk. Thursday and Friday likely offer the nicest weather of the forecast period. Despite the cold front, clouds keep temperatures warm in the upper 60s and lower 70s heading into Thursday morning. In contrast, cooler temperatures filter in by afternoon with middle 80s for all. Additional showers and storms chances (10-30%) are expected across the southern half of the area from activity spreading east from the Rockies. That said, surface high pressure limits this potential. Friday offers much of the same weather as Thursday, though rain chances are a touch higher (20-40%). By this weekend into next week, a return to hot and humid weather is forecast. Upper-level ridging and increasing heights will effectively keep the area dry through this time period with increasing temperatures throughout. Upper 80s return this weekend, before 90s to near 100 arrive heading through next week. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, heat indices near 100 are probable. This heat will continued to be monitored as any further increases could result in excessive heat concerns. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Relatively light south winds continue this evening into tonight. A widely scattered cumulus deck around 5 kft should dissipate later this evening. Increasing clouds is forecast on Wednesday as our next weather system approaches. During the morning into the afternoon, winds shift towards the southwest with scattered cumulus developing around 6 kft. Any showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to remain north and west of the area until late in the period. OFK can expect a low chance of thunderstorms during Wednesday afternoon, but timing and coverage remains low confidence at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...Chehak  124 FXUS64 KTSA 080442 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Isolated to widely scattered storm Wednesday - Thursday with localized downburst winds possible. - Heat builds Wednesday into Thursday and heat advisories may be needed. - Storm chances trend higher Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures likely near to slightly below normal through this same time frame. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The weak frontal zone that currently extends through far SE OK will lift northward through the day Wednesday. Dewpoints will trend higher for most locals by afternoon and heat index values of 100 to 105 will be common. A brief window of heat advisory criteria may develop but confidence is low in both extent and duration at this time. Isolated afternoon storms are likely Wednesday afternoon most anywhere across the forecast area. Coverage likely remains low but will include mentionable precip chances to reflect the potential. Stronger storms will be capable of downburst winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Stronger wave moves into central Plains Wednesday night with the low level jet responding with a corridor of high based convection possibly spreading into NE OK late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The veered low level flow and potential for lower dewpoints to mix eastward should result in the hottest temperatures of the week by Thursday afternoon. Heat advisory headlines appear likely at this time. Afternoon storm potential Thursday varies amongst model solutions but a low chance across northern locations appears warranted. This corridor will also be nearer slightly stronger flow so an uptick in severe potential could develop pending storm development. An MCS is expected to develop Thursday night across the High Plains and spread eastward toward the forecast area Thursday night into early Friday. This scenario carries uncertainties typical with MCS evolution, but the pattern is favorable and higher precip chances will be shown for northern portions of the forecast area. The pattern evolution over the weekend generally favors building ridging over the western CONUS which then becomes centered over the northern Plains by early next week. This keeps the local region on the periphery of the the upper ridge and allows for daily precip chances with temps near to possibly slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Aside from the potential for a storm in or around the KFSM terminal in the near term, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with some morning mid cloud across eastern OK and afternoon cu at all sites. The main exception will be potential for fog at KFYV. There was dense fog there last night but that was also following rain. Guidance is a lot less bullish with the fog forecast for tonight, but to hedge the going forecast for TEMPO light MVFR fog will be kept. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 97 78 99 / 0 20 10 20 FSM 73 96 76 98 / 0 20 10 20 MLC 72 96 78 98 / 20 20 10 10 BVO 68 95 76 97 / 0 0 20 20 FYV 68 92 74 94 / 0 20 10 20 BYV 67 91 72 94 / 10 20 0 20 MKO 71 95 77 97 / 0 20 0 20 MIO 68 93 74 95 / 0 0 10 20 F10 70 96 76 97 / 0 20 0 20 HHW 72 94 76 96 / 20 20 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30  202 FXUS65 KSLC 080445 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1050 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... - High based showers and thunderstorms will develop over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming late this afternoon into the evening, with any storms that develop capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts, with the threat returning Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions over some southern Utah valleys this afternoon. The threat of critical fire weather conditions will expand into the mountains of southern Utah for Wednesday. - There is increasing confidence that a notable heat wave will develop over the weekend, with many valleys forecast to see HeatRisk values in the red (major) range, and some northern Utah valleys seeing values in the purple (extreme) range Saturday into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1050 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... A broad area of high pressure is centered over the central United States this morning, with Utah and southwest Wyoming under a breezy southwest flow on the back side of this feature, enhanced by some shortwave energy moving over the top of the ridge. Highs today will be similar to yesterday, with maxes running up to 5F above seasonal normals. Though the southwest flow is drawing some moisture northward, relative humidities will still be low enough in some valleys of southern Utah to combine with the breezy winds to result in areas of critical fire weather conditions. Guidance continues to indicate a setup favorable for another round of strong to severe convection for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon. A shortwave is expected to move over northern portions of the area late this afternoon into the early evening with some decent jet support providing upper level divergence. Combined with anticipated bulk effective shear of 30-40 kts, this has the potential to bring a bit of more organized convection. Given the high based nature of these storms, primary threat will be strong, gusty outflow winds and isolated dry lightning. However, cannot rule out some hail. Overall, have increased POPs a bit over northern Utah to account for the threat and extended the mentionable POPs into the first part of the overnight hours given model trends. With the central US ridge expected to weaken tomorrow, the flow aloft over the area is expected to have more of a westerly component, tapping into a dry slot over the California coast. This will drop relative humidities from southwest to northeast over the forecast area, resulting in more widespread critical fire weather conditions as winds remain elevated. Some moisture will remain over parts of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, with more shortwave energy expected to move through during the late afternoon and early evening once again. This feature looks better defined than the one expected today, with a weak boundary in association with it, so if anything seeing better dynamics for tomorrow compared to today, though the main threat will shift slightly farther north. Drier air is expected to continue to move in through the remainder of the work week. By Friday, a ridge centered near southern Nevada will start to expand, before the axis shifts overhead Saturday and east of the area on Sunday. There is high confidence that this will bring some of the hottest temperatures of the season so far, particularly for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. HeatRisk forecasts show red (major) values for many valleys across the area, with perhaps the exception of the lowest southern Utah valleys. By Sunday, there is an increasing chance of purple (extreme) HeatRisk values for some northern Utahvalleys, including the Cache Valley and Wasatch Front. There is high confidence that these highs will challenge at least daily records, with some guidance indicating monthly records, and, in the case of Logan, all-time records will be in play. Predictably, this will significantly increase the chance of heat related illnesses across the area over the upcoming weekend. As the ridge continues east of the area early next week, there is increasing confidence that temperatures will move from extremely hot to just hot, with guidance showing highs "just" 5-10F above seasonal normals by day seven. Increasing southerly flow could also bring a return of moisture by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... KSLC...Gusty northwest winds will diminish before switching to the southeast between 07 and 08Z. Thereafter VFR conditions with southeast winds can be expected through Wednesday morning, with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms impacting the terminal after 19Z Wednesday afternoon. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Lingering showers and thunderstorms across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming will diminish by 09Z, leaving VFR conditions and light winds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon mainly across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible around KBCE Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 136 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon over portions of northern and eastern Utah. These storms will be high-based, particularly for northern Utah, and will bring the threat of isolated dry lightning into the early evening. Meanwhile, breezy southerly winds will combine with continued dry conditions over the valleys of southern Utah to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions. A drying trend will begin Wednesday, lasting through the upcoming weekend. With breezy conditions persisting, much of central and southern Utah will see areas of critical fire weather conditions for Wednesday before winds decrease for Thursday. Strong high pressure will build for the upcoming weekend, bringing very dry conditions and the potential for record breaking heat by Sunday. Conditions will become less hot to start the work week, with the potential for moisture to return by the middle of next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ492-495-497-498. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ493-496. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  240 FXUS65 KSLC 080445 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered high-based convection is expected to across northern/central UT and southwest WY tomorrow afternoon with gusty outflow winds capable of gusts to 50mph with scattered severe gusts in excess of 58mph. - Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southern UT tomorrow afternoon as gusts increase with a decrease in RH. - Probabilities for a notable heat wave developing late this week continue to increase resulting in areas of major HeatRisk developing statewide. Valley temperatures are forecast to reach and/or exceed 100F Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Large-scale ridging continues to build over the Four Corners region with southwesterly flow persisting overhead. Mid- level moisture will continue to overspread UT into tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave trough pushes across northwest UT, deepening somewhat with eastern extent. As such, high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern and central UT as well as southwest WY. Mid-level flow associated with the trough ranging from 40-50kts is forecast to push across northern UT in the afternoon hours, serving to increase eff. shear to around 20-30kts, potentially resulting in the development of organized convection and longer-lived storms. Additionally, DCAPE continues to remain quite high to around 1600-1800J/kg, and with ample flow aloft, scattered instances of strong to severe wind gusts (58mph) appear likely with the potential of a few gusts to 70mph. The highest confidence for these gusts reside in western Box Elder county due to low confidence regarding eastern extent. Later tomorrow evening into Thursday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly/zonal following the departure of the trough ejecting northeast. Drier air working its way in with the westerly flow with modest height rises across the region will provide enough large- scale subsidence to keep most areas dry with convection remaining across higher terrain. Additionally, temperatures will remain moderated, albeit still quite hot during this time given a more stagnant upper air pattern. On Friday, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build significantly centered over the Four Corners with high confidence regarding the development of dangerously hot temperatures. On Friday, most valley locations will approach 100F across much of UT. On Saturday, nearly all valley locations are forecast to break into the 100s with lower Washington nearing 110F. Similar temperatures are expected to occur on Sunday and Monday across the entirety of the forecast area. Regarding HeatRisk, most valley locations will see "Major" develop, particularly along the I-15 corridor on Saturday with pockets of "Extreme" developing along the northern Wasatch Front. Both areas of "Major" and "Extreme" will increase in size on Sunday, expanding into both Salt Lake City and Provo, given expected poor overnight recoveries across the aforementioned areas. The threat continues on Monday, primarily along the Wasatch Front. && .AVIATION, Issued 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... KSLC...Gusty northwest winds will diminish before switching to the southeast between 07 and 08Z. Thereafter VFR conditions with southeast winds can be expected through Wednesday morning, with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms impacting the terminal after 19Z Wednesday afternoon. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Lingering showers and thunderstorms across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming will diminish by 09Z, leaving VFR conditions and light winds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon mainly across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible around KBCE Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 136 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon over portions of northern and eastern Utah. These storms will be high-based, particularly for northern Utah, and will bring the threat of isolated dry lightning into the early evening. Meanwhile, breezy southerly winds will combine with continued dry conditions over the valleys of southern Utah to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions. A drying trend will begin Wednesday, lasting through the upcoming weekend. With breezy conditions persisting, much of central and southern Utah will see areas of critical fire weather conditions for Wednesday before winds decrease for Thursday. Strong high pressure will build for the upcoming weekend, bringing very dry conditions and the potential for record breaking heat by Sunday. Conditions will become less hot to start the work week, with the potential for moisture to return by the middle of next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ492-495-497-498. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ493-496. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  299 FXUS63 KDVN 080448 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms Wednesday night and Thursday. - Building heat this weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet weather is expected into tonight and Wednesday with high pressure gradually shifting to our southeast into the Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will be in the 60s and given the humid conditions there could be some patchy shallow fog in favored low-lying locations. For Wednesday, expect another very warm July day with highs generally in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, with peak afternoon heat indices in the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Upper level pattern to transition to a more zonal flow, with several shortwaves moving through by the end of the work week. During the day on Wednesday, the active storm track will remain north of the area over MN and WI, as a cool front drops south into IA. While forcing along and behind the front is not overly impressive, scattered showers/storms are still forecast to develop aided by 30-40kt mid-level flow, dropping southeast closer to the northwest portions of the CWA Wednesday night/early Thursday. The question becomes will they actually reach our area before dissipating and CAM guidance is mixed. Better synoptic lift will be displaced to the north and to the west of the CWA, but if storms do reach the northern CWA they will occur in a high PW+sufficient thermodynamic environment to support a few isolated strong to severe storms. RAP forecast soundings also support this idea and still has DCAPE values around 600 J/Kg at 03z near the Hwy 20 corridor. Not all areas will see rain however and there will be many dry hours during the day Thursday. The aforementioned cool front to drop south and stall out somewhere over the southern half of the CWA Thursday afternoon while another stronger shortwave shown by several deterministic and ensemble solutions moves across Iowa. A more favorable kinematic parameter space is also being suggested with this wave leading to a chance of stong/severe storms. As a result, the SPC now has a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for areas along and south of line from Washington IA to Sterling IL. In addition, a very moist environment will be in place leading to a heavy rain threat. Beyond Friday, all deterministic and ensemble guidance show a large anomalous 598 dam 500mb ridge building into the central CONUS. Above normal temperatures are likely and with the maturing crops adding additional moisture into the atmosphere, we could see more heat headlines by early next week. The latest CPC 6-10 day outlook (encompassing the majority of next week) strongly favors above normal temperatures across the Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF cycle. Light southwest winds under 10kts is expected, with mostly sunny skies. Scattered showers and storms to remain north and west of the terminals this evening through at least 03z.09. These may reach DBQ by the end of the period, but confidence too low to include any mention at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Gross/Uttech AVIATION...Gross  378 FXUS64 KOHX 080450 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1150 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and weekend. Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible mid to late week, mainly west of the Plateau. - Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with stronger, slower-moving storms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Earlier convection has dissipated but moistened soils will increase chances for radiational fog tonight/early Wednesday morning. There's roughly a 20-40% chance for patchy dense fog to develop across Middle TN with locations that received rain earlier today being the most likely candidates. Tomorrow will be fairly similar to today. An upper low over western KY/TN will drift to the east and become more of an open shortwave trough by the evening. With plenty of instability and PWATs in the 1.75-2"+ range, scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Bulk shear will be meager, so chances are low for storms to become severe. Like today, the more likely outcome will be storms producing torrential downpours that could cause some localized flooding concerns. We'll warm up a bit on Thursday with slightly drier air moving in from the west thanks to the flow aloft becoming more zonal. This may keep the bulk of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms relegated to the eastern half of Middle TN, but any storm will still be capable of producing heavy rain with PWATs around 1.5-1.75". Heat indicies will reach the upper-90s to low-100s across the central and western portions of the state. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Greater chances for widespread diurnal showers and thunderstorms will return Friday-Saturday. There's a low chance for severe storms Friday and Saturday, but shortwaves moving through aloft will provide more shear than we've seen over the past couple of days, especially north of I-40. PWATs will continue to be high, meaning any storm will be capable of heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding concerns. Heat indices near 100 remain possible for areas generally west of the Cumberland Plateau through Saturday. Next week looks warmer and drier but without concern for dangerous heat indices like last week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A weak surface boundary remains stretched across Middle Tennessee this evening and has provided the focus for convection for most of the afternoon, with still considerable activity ongoing as we head into the evening. In the near term, KBNA and KMQY are the most likely to be affected for the next hour or so. Overnight, we once again expect widespread fog across the region, although we're not confident that IFR conditions will develop, so we'll keep it MVFR for now at all terminals. Tomorrow, once again, we expect afternoon convection to develop which we've handled with PROB30 remarks. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 71 88 72 / 60 20 60 30 Clarksville 87 70 87 71 / 80 30 60 20 Crossville 82 66 82 66 / 70 20 70 30 Columbia 88 69 88 70 / 50 20 50 20 Cookeville 84 68 84 68 / 70 20 60 40 Jamestown 83 66 83 66 / 70 20 70 40 Lawrenceburg 86 68 86 69 / 40 20 50 30 Murfreesboro 89 70 88 70 / 50 20 60 30 Waverly 86 69 87 70 / 70 20 50 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cahill LONG TERM....Cahill AVIATION.....Rose  437 FXUS63 KUNR 080452 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1052 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active through Thursday as a series of disturbances move through the region. - A few severe thunderstorms again possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially over northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and southwest South Dakota. - Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temperatures possible and dangerous heat. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1052 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Massaged PoPs and QPF this evening through the overnight and Wednesday to better match radar trends and the new 00z suite of CAMs. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms should weaken a bit overnight and trend east, ending/exiting the region by sunrise. A break follows before our next round of convection develops around 1-2pm Wednesday afternoon across northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and southwest South Dakota. While a couple storms may spill just east of these areas, this region should see most of the activity and the best chance for a few strong to severe storms. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms in this corridor. Shear around 35kts and decent instability should support pulsing single cells and transient supercell structures with lightning, wind gusts of 50 to 65 MPH, and dime to golf ball size hail. Storms may tend to cluster a bit in the evening, and largely end by 11 PM. Significant heat along with possible critical fire weather conditions still expected to start Saturday and continue into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Monday) Issued at 1025 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Impulse filled westerly flow will be in place over the region through Thursday as a frontal boundary remains in place. Near daily chances for thunderstorms can be expected with severe storms possible at times, best chances today. Sfc front stalled across the FA today. The front has settled further south that previous model runs indicated yesterday, with a southward shift of the best severe potential. Moderately strong impulse will kick out of WY/MT in the the afternoon and evening and will drive CI there. Storms may also fire along the Pine Ridge and INVOF of the front if capping can be overcome. Another location for CI will be northern BH if the inhibition is also overcome. Given progged ML CAPE of 1-2.5 KJ/KG, deep bulk layer shear of 35 to 45 knots (highest north of the sfc front), expect supercells to be possible with strong rotating updrafts, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Best chances for rotating storms will be along and north of the sfc front. Still a very small window for tornadoes with any storms near the sfc front, which will start shifting SW into SW SD this afternoon. Storms will carry across the region through the evening and overnight, possibly lingering into the morning Wed as elevated activity. More storms are possible Wed and Thur as sufficient LL moisture will be in place with weak stability and additional impulses. The best chances for storms will be across the western third Wed with chances expanding to the entire FA Thur. Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend, with dry and hot conds expected. Impressive temps of 35 to almost 40C at h85 with close to 6000 H5 heights over WY, will offer record to near record highs well into the 100s with 110 to 115 possible on portions of the Plains, esp Sunday and Monday. Ridge begins to breaks down across the Northern Plains the middle of next week, with storm chances returning as the active northern periphery of the ridge settles south. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1032 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thunderstorms will continue move across western South Dakota over the next couple of hours. Frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds can be expected with any stronger convective cores. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions also expected around any heavier precipitation cores. Conditions will begin to improve around 09z as storms diminish and move out of the region. Areas of lower ceilings and patchy fog may develop over northwestern South Dakota between 06z and 17z; MVFR/IFR conditions are possible. Another round of storms will begin to develop over northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota starting around 08/19z and lasting through the remainder of the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...Schultz  427 FXUS65 KPUB 080451 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1051 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily shot of showers and thunderstorms through Friday, initially forming over the mts by midday then spreading across the plains. - Increasing flash flood threat for the Aspen Acres burn scar Wednesday and Thursday. - Severe weather threat for the far eastern plains Thursday. - Hot and dry conditions continue over the weekend into next week, as upper high pressure builds across the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Flat upper high pressure area stretches from southern CA across the Four Corners into the US southern Plains. Currently...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across the higher terrain this afternoon, with more activity along the Continental Divide compared to the eastern mts. Temps as of 1 PM have warmed into the upper 70s across the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Tonight...Hi-res models indicate that ongoing convection will push east through 9 PM, then percolate over the far eastern plains north of the Palmer Divide overnight. Do not think that there will be any flooding issues for area burn scars this afternoon and early eve, but of course will continue to monitor for any storm overachievers. Main storm threats continue to be erratic wind gusts 40-50 mph and cloud to ground lightning. Expect overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys, mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains, and moderate overnight humidity recovery for area wildfires. Finally, overnight convection to the north is progged to push an outflow boundary down into southeast colorado, which will provide additional llvl support for activity tomorrow. Tomorrow...Upper pattern remains in place, with llvl E-SE winds supporting what short range models have been indicating for a few days, which is a stronger signal for more widespread convection all along the eastern mts. Best time window for shower and thunderstorm development will be between noon and 2 PM, with the greatest areal coverage between 2 PM and 6 PM. Therefore, went ahead and issued a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar from noon until 8 pm, due to the increased potential for a storm to track across the newly burned area and produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Elsewhere, convection should push east across the eastern plains through the afternoon and early evening, and there is a slight chance that one or two of those storms may become strong to possibly severe across Kiowa, bent and Prowers counties. Expect high temps in the 80s for the high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the plains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Wednesday night and Thursday...Little change to the upper pattern, with the flat ridge remaining in place across the region through Thu. Any lingering convection Wed night is expected to diminish by midnight, with a mild night anticipated. A stronger upper shortwave crosses the state on Thu, with hi-res models predicting CAPE around 1500 j/kg and increasing bulk shear for the eastern plains. Latest SPC guidance has much of the plains outlooked in a Marginal to Slight category, so while convection will still need to be monitored for rainfall rates across area burn scars, farther east damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the concern. Latest guidance is leaning towards high temps a degree or two cooler for Thu, especially across the east, with 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Another concern to note, critical fire weather conditions make a return to the San Luis Valley Thu afternoon. Friday...Upper high starts to amplify once again through the day, leading to drying across UT and western CO. Long range models do show another upper disturbance dropping south across the central US plains and eastern CO, keeping storm chances in play for the CO plains Fri afternoon and evening. Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Spotty critical fire weather conditions continue across the San Luis Valley. Saturday through Tuesday...Upper ridge migrates to the north and northeast over the weekend and into the upcoming work week, providing for hot and dry conditions. However, this movement does open the door for some monsoon moisture to start creeping northward into the Four Corners region. At this time, effects are negligible in the extended, but there remains some hope for the second half of the month. Moore && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1047 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 KALS...VFR condition overnight into Wednesday afternoon at the terminal. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon across the San Luis Valley and could impact the terminal. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the main concerns. KCOS and KPUB...and outflow boundary will move across the terminals through 06z turning winds easterly around 10 kts. These winds will return to diurnally driven overnight and light. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain by mid afternoon and spread across the terminals into the evening. Brief heavy rainfall, lightning and gusty outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOZLEY  543 FXUS63 KDDC 080455 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures today with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. - Severe thunderstorms are possible each evening/night through Friday, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. - Strong upper level ridge will build over the weekend into next week, resulting in little to no precipitation chances and afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Late evening water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal weak ridging is in place atop the Desert Southwest, zonal flow across the northern Rockies/plains, and nebulous flow in between over the central plains. Short range guidance agrees the weak upper ridge will break down/retrograde further through the day Wednesday. Despite the weakening subsidence aloft, 850-mb temperatures are progged to increase by 4-5 degrees C, which will translate to afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Late Wednesday afternoon, the combination of the retrograding ridge and a weak upper level disturbance moving across the northern plains will result in weak height falls/modest strengthening of zonal flow over the central plains. Latest HREF suggests thunderstorms will develop over southeast WY/northeast CO and adjacent areas amidst sufficient moisture/instability and deep-layer shear for updraft organization. With time, upscale growth into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) appears the most likely scenario as this activity moves southeast into northwest KS, potentially impacting our northern zones after sunset and bringing a marginally severe wind gust threat. Daytime Thursday, little to no change in the synoptic pattern is expected as modest zonal flow remains anchored over the central and northern plains. In the wake of the previous night's MCS, convective outflow spread out over southwest KS will be modified by strong solar insolation, eventually resulting in southeast flow becoming re-established. As a result, afternoon highs will range from the low/mid 90s north of US-50 to the upper 90s/near 100 across our southern zones near the KS/OK border. Once again, a weak upper level impulse moving across the central Rockies will engender convective initiation over the higher terrain in eastern CO by mid-afternoon. HREF members exhibit strong agreement suggesting thunderstorms will rapidly congeal into an MCS, move east into western KS around 00Z, and roll across our area through the evening and into the overnight period. Given a favorable CAPE/shear parameter space, this MCS will pose a primarily severe wind gust threat, although severe hail is possible near the KS/CO border within any semi-discrete cells that can persist as convection enters our area. Friday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree thunderstorms are once again possible Friday evening/night as yet another weak upper level wave ejects onto the central plains. Beyond Friday however, ensembles agree a strong, cut-off high will expand northward through the High Plains, with the core of this ridge reaching north of southwest KS. While this evolution likely means little to no precipitation chances, the warmest lower-tropospheric temperatures will be drawn north of our CWA, supporting afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through mid- next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Winds will oscillate between southeast and southwest through 06Z Thursday, remaining sustained in the 10-15 kt range with gusts to 20 kts during the mid-morning through late afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Springer  600 FXUS63 KDMX 080456 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and sunny conditions continue today, with warmer temperatures near 90 expected Wednesday. - Thunderstorm chances return Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. A few storms may producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall over north central Iowa. - Additional rainfall around 1 to 2 inches Wednesday through Thursday may slow or worsen ongoing improvement along area rivers. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Today's conditions over Iowa show a similar picture to this time yesterday, with cumulus clouds speckling sunny skies. Winds are light and generally out of the south and temperatures have warmed into the 80s. Heat index values are a bit higher in the upper 80s and low 90s thanks to the moist upper 60 to 70 dewpoints and little cooling from the wind. Surface high pressure is to be thanked for another day of nice conditions, but will be steadily departing the area tonight into Wednesday. Return flow on the backside of the high pressure will bring the warm, moist low to mid-level moisture stream back into Iowa. This will first result in warmer temperatures on Wednesday as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s for some. This moist air will also bring some increased cloudiness and rain/thunderstorm chances to Iowa Wednesday through Friday. The first of this rain and cloudiness could come as early as mid- to late Wednesday morning, as convective debris lingers into Iowa from overnight convection in the Dakotas and Minnesota tonight. Most of short-range guidance has this activity diminishing by the time it arrives in our forecast area, as the airmass over Iowa will be more stable than farther north, at least in the morning hours. However, we saw storms persist into Iowa this morning under less favorable conditions, so it's certainly possible a few showers or even a thunderstorm grazes northern Iowa this morning. Fortunately, these storms would be elevated with less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, so anticipate storms will be sub-severe albeit with some gusty winds possible given the dry sub-cloud air. A boundary is then expected to set up over western into northern Iowa through the day Wednesday, as a very subtle 500 mb shortwave passes from west to east across northern Iowa. The combination of this weak wave and boundary will result in thunderstorm chances over northern Iowa Wednesday afternoon through the evening. The thunderstorm environment through this period isn't necessarily jumping off the page, depicting modest instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and marginal deep layer shear (25 to 35 kts of 0-6 km shear). This is sufficient for a few organized updrafts and strong to severe storms. The main risk with storms will be the damaging wind potential, as a well-mixed boundary layer ahead of the boundary will promote evaporative cooling and enhanced winds down to the surface. Hail will also be a possibility, although large hail may be difficult to come by, barring an increase in wind shear allowing for supercell development. Finally, the tornado risk also appears low with relatively high LCLs and marginal low level SRH (50 to 100 m2/s2) but can't rule it out with any storms tied into a surface boundary. With 1.7" to 2.0" precipitable water values along the boundary, efficient rainfall may occur with these storms. Rainfall amounts around an inch are expected, with localized pockets of 2 to 3 inches possible, mainly over north central Iowa. The severe thunderstorm potential generally wanes late Wednesday evening and overnight, but isolated to scattered elevated storm activity may still linger along the boundary as it sags southward into the overnight hours. That said, a lull in activity is possible overnight before more storms begin to move in from the west early Thursday morning, being fed by the LLJ nosed up into the Plains. Model guidance isn't in complete agreement for how this second round of storms will look, as the northward extent of the jet varies among solutions. This comes in the form of a mesoscale convective system, but track will be dependent on the jet and the final position of the boundary. Damaging winds could be possible should this MCS hold on into central Iowa, although guidance is trying to dissipate the system as it enters the state early Thursday. Of similar concern would be more heavy rainfall associated with this system as it moves through, as well as redevelopment associated with any MCVs as it moves through the state Thursday. It's tough to put too much stock in redevelopment on leftover mesoscale features at this range, but will want to watch high resolution models as additional thunderstorm development is possible again Thursday afternoon over far southern Iowa and into Missouri. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 One more shortwave passes through the 500 mb pattern on Friday, bringing more shower and storm chances to the state, albeit to a lower confidence given a lot of the moisture transport will be focused to the south of Iowa. After this Friday wave, 500 mb ridging fills in aloft, keeping conditions dry and warm for most of the state through the weekend. Highs by next week climb back into the upper 80s and potentially the low 90s. This high pressure looks to stick around for a few days, before eventually breaking down late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions to prevail through Wednesday afternoon. Skies will be mostly clear overnight with light winds out of the north. Clouds will gradually increase throughout the day along with shower/storm chances. Confidence is medium (30-50%) that showers and storms will impact northern Iowa after 18Z. PROB30 groups have been continued at KMCW and introduced at KFOD and KALO to represent this. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Rivers and streams in central Iowa continue to see increased flows as water continues to route through the system. One river in central Iowa maintains a flood warning, which is the South Skunk River near Colfax (CFXI4) that has actively crested at moderate flood stage and will be falling below flood stage this afternoon. This portion of the South Skunk River flows into the Oskaloosa (OOAI4) area, but at this point should remain below it's minor flood stage. Other rivers within the Des Moines and Cedar River basins are also at increased levels as water works it's way down stream, albeit all below flood stage and continuing to recede. Additional rainfall later this week, especially Wednesday evening through Friday, could lead to slower improvement and/or additional rises on area rivers, depending on what basins this rain affects. The heaviest rain looks like it will fall over north central Iowa, and should be in isolated pockets. However, should one of these isolated pockets fall in the wrong spots, conditions may be exacerbated. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dodson LONG TERM...Dodson AVIATION...TDR HYDROLOGY...Dodson  635 FXUS63 KGID 080457 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1157 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot Wednesday, thunderstorms are likely by evening (50-80% chance). Some of these storms may be severe with damaging wind and large hail. - Thursday will be noticably cooler (mainly 80s) with another chance for evening/overnight thunderstorms favoring areas south of I-80 (marginal risk of severe thunderstorms) - Overall drier conditions by this weekend into next week and heating back up into the 90s by Sunday and at least several days thereafter. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Summer Heat... Hot weather with highs in the 90s will persist into Wednesday afternoon. A cold front sinking south Wednesday evening will bring thunderstorms to the area (Wednesday evening/night) and cooler weather for Thursday through Saturday (highs mainly in the 80s). A strong and unusually anomalous upper level ridge (600 decameters at 500 mb) is projected to initially build over the Rocky Mountains this weekend and slide east into the plains early next week. This will result in hot and dry conditions even by July standards. Our projected highs early next week in the lower to mid 90s may be too cool and would not be surprised to see upper 90s and even some 100 degree temperatures if this upper ridge patter fully materializes. Wednesday and Thursday Severe Thunderstorm Threat... We have two remaining decent chances to get moisture before the upper ridge builds in and precipitation is likely to shut off for awhile. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Nebraska counties will be Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Kansas counties will be Thursday night. Unfortunately this rain may come in the form of severe weather for some areas with the main threat being the wind gusts, but also at least a marginal hail threat as well. There are currently two main areas to watch Wednesday afternoon/evening. The first area will be along the cold front with afternoon heating mainly across our northern and northeastern areas where storms may initially develop, will probably be more isolated, but will be slower moving and capable of dumping heavier 1" plus rainfall amounts. There is lower confidence in this initial thunderstorm development. However, there is higher confidence that a more widespread line of thunderstorms will develop west of our forecast area later Wednesday evening associated with the upper level shortwave and then track east across much of our area Wednesday night. This later precipitation will bring mainly a severe wind threat to our area with some of these thunderstorms, rain amounts generally less than 1" but more widespread. The Thursday night rain chances are pretty high in the NBM (50-70%), but storms may end up being further south. Best chances for storms Thursday night will be south of I-80 and even higher across north central Kansas. The severe threat Thursday night should be more marginal than on Wednesday evening. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Other than possible thunderstorms Wednesday evening (mainly 23-04Z) VFR conditions are expected at EAR/GRI. Winds turn to the south/southwest early Wednesday and will turn to the north late in the period after thunderstorms depart the area. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Mangels  617 FXUS64 KBMX 080457 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1157 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1156 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026 - Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for much of the upcoming week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. - Pattern Change Next Week: A very strong and elongated ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over the center of the U.S. by next week. As a result, confidence is increasing for above-average temperatures by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026 The region remains influenced by a weak mid-level closed low situated over the Central Mississippi River Valley, which continues to provide synoptic lift. This system, interacting with remnant outflow boundaries, will drive the increase in scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area. While activity is expected to peak during the afternoon, particularly across northern counties, some storms may persist into the overnight hours over the next 48 hours. Expected hazards include frequent lightning, heavy tropical downpours, and gusty winds of 20- 30 mph. Persistent hot and humid conditions will continue to impact the area, keeping afternoon highs in the low to mid-90s and heat indices at or above 100 degrees, consistent with the broader pattern of dangerous heat persisting across the Southeast. The closed low will gradually drift northeastward and weaken, leading to a decrease in overall forcing and storm coverage. By Friday, rain chances will decrease and become confined primarily to the eastern portion of the area, returning to the typical isolated to scattered, diurnally driven convective regime. Heat indices will also increase by Friday into Saturday with readings possibly reaching 105 degrees, which may approach or meet Heat Advisory criteria. A pattern shift begins on Sunday as an anomalous 500 mb ridge expands across the CONUS, eventually pushing a rare July surface front southward into the area. This boundary, in tandem with mid- level shortwave impulses embedded in northwesterly flow, is forecast to trigger widespread shower and storm development for both Sunday and Monday, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds remaining the primary concerns. By the middle of next week, model confidence decreases due to differences between deterministic and ensemble guidance, though confidence is increasing for above- average temperatures across the region. 16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Lingering showers and storms are expected to persist through 02z. Subsequent clearing and calm winds will support the development of patchy fog at MGM, EET, and TCL from 10z to 13z, potentially reducing visibilities to less than 5 SM at times. Additional showers and storms are anticipated Wednesday afternoon as diurnal heating interacts with residual boundaries; therefore, a PROB30 for TSRA has been included for TCL, EET, and BHM where the most confidence exists for convective development. NOTE: Added AMD NOT SKED for TCL for a communication issue this afternoon. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week. Thunderstorms will also remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain little to none for most of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 91 72 91 / 10 50 40 50 Anniston 71 91 73 90 / 10 40 30 50 Birmingham 73 92 74 92 / 10 40 30 50 Tuscaloosa 72 91 73 92 / 10 40 20 40 Calera 72 94 73 94 / 10 40 20 50 Auburn 74 91 74 91 / 20 20 20 40 Montgomery 74 94 75 93 / 20 20 20 50 Troy 72 93 74 92 / 20 20 20 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...16