728 FXUS64 KSHV 080500 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight across east Texas and the I-30 corridor, becoming more widespread during the late morning and afternoon hours. - Quiet and dry weather will return Thursday and continue through the end of the week, with areawide highs in the low to middle 90s. - Unsettled weather looks to return Sunday and continue into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection has largely diminished across the ArkLaTex this evening, and while high resolution short range models have struggled to resolve development of new storms, particularly in regards to position and timing, additional redevelopment overnight cannot be ruled out. Based on high precipitable water values, the most likely regions to favor convection will be across east Texas and along the I-30 corridor. Guidance suggests this overnight impulse of moisture will propagate southeast into southern Arkansas and northwest Louisiana near daybreak, followed by another afternoon of areawide storm chances driven by the lingering axis, diminishing by mid evening. Overnight tonight, lows look to drop into the low to middle 70s, followed by highs in the low to middle 90s tomorrow at the majority of sites, aside from those where cloud cover and precipitation limit warming. Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, the upper level trough over the arkLaTex will lift north and east over the Mississippi and Ohio Valley, taking the axis with it and leaving the region dry through the end of the work week and beginning of the weekend. By early Saturday into Sunday, ridging over the western CONUS will amplify, forming a closed high over the Four Corners region which will drift north over the northern Plains. Steering around this high will at least open the door to afternoon sea breeze convection reaching our southern zones Saturday, followed by more widespread convection Sunday into early next week as easterly flow delivers a series of weaknesses our way, assuming we remain to the southeast of the ridge. The proximity of this upper level ridging looks to help sustain our summertime heat, though presence of convection may manage to limit runaway heating. At this point, highs in the 90s look to remain entrenched in place, with more sites aiming at the middle 90s. Lows will continue in the middle to upper 70s throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions currently prevailing across our entire airspace attm as we are seeing some remnant debris cloud cover from previous convection across portions of SW AR as well as NE TX and NW LA. If we see any nocturnal convection overnight, it will likely be tied to the I-20 and 30 Corridors of NE TX, perhaps spreading eastward into SW AR and NW LA near or just after sunrise Wed Morning so have accounted for this in the 06z TAF package. Otherwise, another day of diurnally driven mostly scattered convection across the remainder of our airspace before convection dissipates during the mid to late evening hours on Wed. Also cannot rule out patchy MVFR VSBYS the closer we get to sunrise in the morning with mostly clear skies areawide currently. Winds will be varying from SE to SW with speeds generally under 10kts during this TAF package except variable and more gusty in and around convection. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this morning and afternoon across the region./26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 86 72 93 77 / 60 30 30 10 MLU 92 73 94 76 / 20 30 40 10 DEQ 92 70 93 73 / 20 10 20 10 TXK 92 73 95 76 / 20 20 20 10 ELD 90 71 92 74 / 20 20 30 10 TYR 95 74 96 78 / 50 30 20 10 GGG 89 74 95 77 / 50 30 30 10 LFK 94 75 95 76 / 60 40 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...13  724 FXUS66 KMTR 080500 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1000 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Seasonably cool temperatures today before a warming trend begins Wednesday through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents today through Friday - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night) Seasonal to seasonally cool temperatures continue today into tomorrow thanks to a deep marine layer and expansive layer of marine stratus. The marine layer is forecast to remain between 1500-2000 feet through tomorrow as troughing continues to our west over the Pacific Ocean. Marine stratus will return across much of the interior Bay Area and Central Coast tonight with pockets of fog possible across the North Bay Valleys and along the coast. If you are missing clear skies today, you will have a better chance at seeing them tomorrow. Confidence is higher tomorrow that stratus will recede by late morning/early afternoon across the interior as surface high pressure strengthens and the marine layer compresses to around 1000-1500 feet. The marine layer will help keep much of the area seasonally cool with high temperatures in the 50s to 60s along the coast and 70s to 80s across the interior Bay Area. The one exception will be the interior Central Coast where temperatures are seasonal to seasonally warm in the 80s to 90s. Marine layer influence on the interior Central Coast is minimal with building high pressure across the desert southwest having a stronger influence on that region. Breezy afternoon and evening winds continue across mountain gaps/passes (the Salinas Valley, San Bruno Gap, the Altamont Pass) and along the coast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (Thursday through next Monday) The forecast begins to change Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure across the Desert Southwest retrogrades, becoming centered more over Southern California. This allows temperatures to warm up by a few (~4-5) degrees outside of coastal areas and the bay shoreline. For the interior Bay Area this results in temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with pockets of 90s in the far North Bay and far interior East Bay. The warmest locations will be in the interior Central Coast where temperatures look to be in the low 100s Thursday and Friday. The NBM deterministic is running closer to the 90th percentile for the interior Central Coast but even the mean NBM forecast keeps temperatures around 100. All that to say, whatever way you look at it the interior Central Coast will be hot on Thursday. Temperatures will remain fairly similar to this through the rest of the extended forecast as upper level ridging builds over California. High temperatures will fluctuate by 1-2 degrees but will largely stay in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s along the coast, 70s along the bay shoreline, and 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Long range models are showing early potential for strong upper level ridging to build across the Intermountain West early to mid next week. This is likely to bring above normal temperatures with initial guidance for Tuesday showing temperatures warming across the interior East Bay and interior Central Coast. This is certainly something to keep an eye on if not for the heat impacts but the fire weather risk. In addition to the hotter conditions expected in the long term, there is the potential for dry lightning Sunday into Monday. On the synoptic scale, upper level high pressure will more northeastward (towards the Intermountain West) Sunday into Monday while upper level troughing deepens over the Pacific Ocean. Our region is still primarily influenced by the upper level ridge, but, the deepening trough will result in stronger southeasterly flow across Southern California, Arizona, and the Gulf of California. This will bring a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California northward into California. PWAT values look to be between 1-1.5" Sunday into Monday which is approximately 150-200% of normal for this time of year. The highest PWAT values are currently forecast across the Central Coast, South Bay, and East Bay. At the same time, the 700- 500 mb lapse rates are between 7-8 C/km which are favorable for convection to develop. If all these ingredients are able to come together, then it is likely we would see high-based thunderstorms across portions of our CWA. Given the elevated nature of any potential thunderstorms, any precipitation that falls would evaporate before reaching the surface. The two most likely hazards would then be dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds. Hot and dry conditions this week will prime the environment for fire starts by further drying out fuels and making them more susceptible to fire starts if thunderstorms develop. Fire weather concerns are elevated Sunday into early next week as a result of the dry lightning threat. While the pattern appears conducive for thunderstorm development, there remains some uncertainty regarding specific details. The nature of these specific details may modulate the risk for a high-based convective event. This is a good time to stay tuned to the forecast as we move into the domain of higher resolution short term models and the forecast becomes clearer later this week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The marine layer stratus is making its nightly push inland. Some drier air has filtered into the North Bay, keeping STS and APC in the clear for now. Eventually all terminals will develop a ceiling, with a lowering trend through the night. Expect MVFR-IFR flight conditions. Vicinity of SFO...The ceiling is 1,300 feet at the moment, and slowly lowering. MVFR conditions are likely to persist through around 09Z when the chance for high IFR increases. Winds will remain WNW, strengthening to around 20 knots tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... Despite the dry pocket over the Monterey Bay, coastal convergence is enough to sustain a ceiling over both MRY and SNS, and it's now unlikely to improve as the night wares on. Expect MVFR conditions to gradually lower to high IFR by sunrise. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 947 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Buoys are reporting a fresh to strong NW breeze across the coastal waters. These conditions will persist for several days as rough seas build to 8-12 feet. Meanwhile a low, long period SW swell will persist through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday and continue into this weekend. This will increase fire weather concerns slightly as fuels rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. Given the combination of potential for dry lightning and dry fuels, it is important to stay up todate on the forecast for the latest information. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  075 FXUS63 KBIS 080506 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1206 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through tonight, but severe weather and heavy rain are no longer anticipated. - Cooler temperatures continue through Wednesday, followed by a strong warming trend through the weekend. - Very hot this weekend and early next week, with daily high temperatures and maximum heat indices around 95 to 105. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thunderstorms have almost completely pushed out of the forecast area, although some thunder remains over southeast Dickey county. A few showers are traversing the northwest forecast area. Additional showers could approach the far southwest late tonight. All of this activity was addressed in the previous update. No changes to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The risk for excessive rainfall appears to have shifted into north central and northeast South Dakota. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible though along the ND/SD border east of Lake Oahe into the overnight hours. Severe weather is also no longer anticipated this evening through tonight. A separate area of scattered showers across northwest and north central North Dakota may persist into the overnight hours. A mention of patchy fog was added to much of southwest and south central North Dakota from late tonight to mid Wednesday morning. Potential contributing factors to fog formation include fresh rainfall from earlier today, low dewpoint depressions, an east- northeast upslope flow, and existing low stratus. UPDATE Issued at 728 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Numerous thunderstorms are developing south of I-94 and east of Highway 83 early this evening. The main hazard from these storms will be torrential rainfall, which may cause localized flooding. Classic setup for excessive rainfall from training convection through this evening with 850 mb moisture transport vectors pointed into mid/low level frontogenesis and perpendicular to Corfidi vectors. Anomalously high precipitable water and deep warm cloud layers also support very high rainfall rates. Recent CAMs favor backbuilding convection as far west as Lake Oahe through late evening, but there is uncertainty which side of the ND/SD border this could fall on. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues as a short wave digs across the main flow aloft this afternoon bringing chances for thunderstorms in North Dakota. There is a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorm possible this afternoon along the MUCAPE axis along the North and South Dakota border. Precipitable water around 1.5 inches will move across the region supporting high rainfall rates which have been observed in South Dakota this morning. Localized flooding is possible if thunderstorms train over an area for a couple of hours. Some of the CAMs show an area of strong thunderstorms developing in the southern James River Valley this afternoon. However the southern James River Valley had an MCV roll through the region so the environment may be a little worked over. The greatest risk for strong storms remain in South Dakota. Daily chances will continue across the state as multiple waves move across the region as Quasi-zonal flow persists. CSU ML program and NSSL ML Program does highlight a low chance of severe weather Thursday into the weekend. Thursday is now outlooked for a marginal risk for large hail and damaging winds. Severe weather chances will continue through the week due increased instability, due to warmer temperatures, low level moisture, and multiple waves. Temperatures are forecast to slowly decrease by tomorrow into the 70s and 80s before ramping back up into the 80s and 90s by the weekend. An upper level ridge is forecast to build back over the west this coming weekend supporting a round of hot weather. The NBM 25th to 75th on Sunday does range from the lower 90s to lower 100s for KBIS. The current NBM forecast for Sunday and Monday is 100 and 99. Thus, there is high confidence in hot temperatures for early next week leading to heat headlines. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure will build over the forecast area tonight behind exiting showers and thunderstorms. Widespread low stratus and fog are possible over much of the forecast area tonight with western and southern areas currently favored. MVFR to IFR visibilities and ceilings are expected where stratus/fog develop with LIFR conditions possible. Low stratus will lift by midday with VFR conditions expected thereafter. Generally light easterly flow through the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...TWH  117 FXUS65 KCYS 080507 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1107 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon through Thursday with heavy rainfall, hail, and strong gusty winds possible. - A ridge builds late in the long term, drying the area out and heating things up. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 151 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Current regional observations are already a little toasty along and east of I-25 with temperatures in the low to mid 90s, except under the mid and high level cloud cover. A few spots near Chadron and Scottsbluff could reach 100 before storms move in this afternoon. The south to southeast winds are advecting in 40 to 50 degree dewpoints over the Nebraksa Panhandle areas. Aloft we have decent near saturated mid layers and a shortwave which will help kick off some elevated and high based convection. Wind shear is lacking in todays environment, much like it was yesterday. The bulk wind shear values are in the 20-30 knot ranges which will favor pulse type storms with short lifespans. Some gusty winds can be anticipated with DCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range combined with dry adiabatic sub cloud layer lapse rates. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a marginal to slight probabilities over much of the area for severe hail and winds. The environment does favor marginally severe hail and winds to 60 mph with the most impressive thunderstorms. Towards the northern CWA counties and in the upper Nebraska Panhandle areas there may be better instability and DCAPE values on the higher end to support winds to +70 mph. At the time of writing this discussion we have convective initiation near Cheyenne which should become more widespread with a favored propagation along the east and northern flanks. More widespread development is anticipated in the next few hours area wide moving to the northeast. Towards the evening marginally severe hail looks possible for mainly the Panhandle area. By midnight most areas should be free of storms, except for a possible complex moving through Carbon County late in the night. Briefly mention that some fire zones in Carbon and Albany County will have elevated fire conditions this afternoon. Patchy areas of red flag conditions are possible when RH values dip into the teens and winds increase. Additionally, dry thunderstorms are possible. Condition coverage is not great enough to issue a red flag product. Wednesday is similar to today, but shear and upper level flow appears better given another shortwave moves in from the west. This shortwave is well timed with the peak afternoon heating and should promote widespread thunderstorms. Surface winds are rather weak and will keep low level shear on the low side. Hodographs are straight and most of the instability above the freezing level will favor large hail development. Surface spreads will be less than the last few days which will help more precipitation reach the surface. Shear to the south of the shortwave feature are anticipated to be in the 40-50 knot ranges which is adequate for supercells in the northern Panhandle areas. With mostly speed shear these storms will be predisposed to grow upscale into line segments. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 151 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thursday...As has been typical in the past week, a neutrally tilted shortwave trough, or perturbation aloft, will develop along the Wyoming and Nebraska state line, with an associated low level convergence axis along the I-25 corridor, sparking scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening east of I-25, with lesser coverage further west. Temperatures will be moderated by cloud and convective precipitation coverage, with 700 mb temperatures yielding maximum temperatures in the 80s. Friday...The atmosphere dries out considerably with shortwave ridging aloft bulging over eastern Wyoming, and with 700 mb temperatures from 12 to 15 Celsius, producing decent convective inhibition, CIN, thunderstorms are quite unlikely. A warming trend develops with less cloud and convective coverage. Saturday through Tuesday...Ridging aloft dominates our region, with quite dry air at low and mid levels, accompanied by 700 mb temperatures from 15 to 20 Celsius, thus chances for late day showers and thunderstorms will be minimal at best, and dry weather will prevail. The 700 mb temperatures will yield maximum temperatures in the 90 to 105 degree range. A weak perturbation and a slight increase in mid level moisture may spark isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1104 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Mostly quiet conditions tonight as the remaining showers and storms continue to move out of the region. Most terminals will see light and variable winds overnight, while portions of the Nebraska Panhandle may see some low clouds. KCDR and KAIA may see lower-level clouds develop between 10 and 15Z this morning. MVFR to near IFR conditions are possible. Clouds clear out in the mid-morning hours everywhere. Primary concern tomorrow will be another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms, some of which may be severe. Damaging winds and large hail are possible with storms in the afternoon. However, gusty and erratic winds are possible in and around any shower or storm the develops in the afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RV LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...AM  211 FXUS63 KOAX 080509 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1209 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-normal temperatures continue through the work week, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. - Periodic chances for storms Wednesday through Friday. Main hazards with any strong to severe storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding. - A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected this weekend into next week. Excessive heat is a concern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet weather is expected tonight, but a gradual increase in middle to upper- level clouds are an indication of changes to come. Overall, light winds and mostly clear skies can be expected overnight as temperatures fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will slide east across the Upper Midwest, pushing a cold front into northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. A few showers or storms may linger as the front pushes into the area, but these should be limited and weakening. Temperatures warm into the lower 90s during the afternoon, helping to erode the capping inversion. Concurrently, a secondary shortwave moves east out of the central Rockies. This feature and the cold front help to initiate storms along the front by mid-afternoon across northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa. Storms gradually sag southeast through the afternoon and evening along the front, approaching the I-80 corridor during the evening, before moving into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning. There is a marginal to slight risk (5-15% chance) of severe storms with this activity. The main hazards will be damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding with any strong to severe storms. Overall, limited wind shear and high cloud bases should help to limit much of the severe risk. Thursday and Friday likely offer the nicest weather of the forecast period. Despite the cold front, clouds keep temperatures warm in the upper 60s and lower 70s heading into Thursday morning. In contrast, cooler temperatures filter in by afternoon with middle 80s for all. Additional showers and storms chances (10-30%) are expected across the southern half of the area from activity spreading east from the Rockies. That said, surface high pressure limits this potential. Friday offers much of the same weather as Thursday, though rain chances are a touch higher (20-40%). By this weekend into next week, a return to hot and humid weather is forecast. Upper-level ridging and increasing heights will effectively keep the area dry through this time period with increasing temperatures throughout. Upper 80s return this weekend, before 90s to near 100 arrive heading through next week. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, heat indices near 100 are probable. This heat will continued to be monitored as any further increases could result in excessive heat concerns. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Have introduced the timing of thunderstorms to Wednesday evening at all three TAF sites. These two hour windows are to be considered early stabs at timing. Changes should be expected by the time the convection actually begins. Storms are actually possible from about 4pm at KOFK to as late as 7am at KOMA and KLNK. These bookend times are outliers. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...Nicolaisen  174 FXUS64 KLZK 080509 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1209 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again Tuesday and to a lesser extent Wednesday afternoons. Severe weather is not expected. - Temperatures look to be close to seasonal averages for the next several days at least. - Heat index values approach heat advisory criteria late in the week over parts of the east and the Arkansas River Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection did fire up pretty much on schedule Monday afternoon through mid evening with only a few lingering cells noted over the far southwest at this time. As is usually the case with diurnally driven convection, it is a story of the haves and have nots with radar estimates ranging from not a drop to a few instances where as much as three inches fell. Other than the weakening convection over the southwest, it is generally rain free across the state although a pop up shower or storm can never be discounted. Skies are partly cloudy with some slightly cooler and drier air now in place behind a frontal boundary, temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The piece of energy responsible for the convection on Monday is now located over NE Arkansas in the base of a weak, positively tilted trough. This feature will finally clear the state by mid to late afternoon but before it does, additional diurnally convection is expected as the airmass remains moist and unstable. CAMS guidance is showing the convection much more scattered in nature versus Monday and dissipating quickly with the loss of daytime heating. The aforementioned upper trough will remain over the FA on Wednesday but with the energy well to the NE, any precipitation looks to be the typical afternoon through early evening convection as higher pressure tries to nose into the region from the southeast. This set up will likely stick around through Friday with precipitation chances trending upwards over the weekend and into early next week as a backdoor front approaches from the NE. Temperatures look to be typical for early to mid July across the FA with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s today and then just 90s across the board moving forward. Lows also look close to seasonal averages. Heat indices will be well below criteria through Thursday when some areas of eastern Arkansas and the river valley get close to or exceed criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 All convection has ended across the region but isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon through early evening. The isolated nature of the convection precludes adding them to any specific terminal. Otherwise widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period with the exception of brief MVFR conditions around sunrise. Winds will generally be light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 73 95 77 / 20 0 10 0 Camden AR 92 73 95 75 / 30 10 10 0 Harrison AR 90 72 93 77 / 10 0 10 0 Hot Springs AR 93 74 95 77 / 20 10 10 0 Little Rock AR 93 75 96 78 / 20 10 10 0 Monticello AR 92 74 94 77 / 30 10 10 0 Mount Ida AR 91 73 93 77 / 30 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 89 72 92 76 / 0 0 10 10 Newport AR 91 74 96 78 / 20 0 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 92 74 95 77 / 30 10 10 0 Russellville AR 94 75 96 78 / 10 10 10 10 Searcy AR 92 73 96 77 / 20 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 92 75 96 78 / 20 10 20 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...56  354 FXUS63 KILX 080510 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1210 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will be most focused from Thursday night into Saturday, with potential for a number of storms tracking along a slow-moving front. There is a 30-40% chance of receiving at least 2 inches of rain in areas near/south of I-70 during this period, with an attendant concern for flooding. - Severe weather potential is more uncertain, but a level 1 risk is in place for Thursday afternoon and night over all of the area. Damaging winds would be the main concern. - A trend toward warmer and more humid conditions is expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning across northeast Arkansas, which has triggered a few stray showers across the southeast CWA early this afternoon. Little movement in this feature is expected through mid week, until a shortwave begins to dig across the central Plains and moves into the Mississippi Valley toward Thursday. Local weather in the short term shouldn't change too much, with Wednesday's high temperatures similar to today (mid 80s) and a few showers again south of I-70. As we get into Thursday, a cold front will settle southward as the shortwave approaches. Chances of showers/storms increase by afternoon, and will be highest from Thursday night into Friday afternoon (60-80%). A number of ensemble outputs suggest it may take until Saturday to fully get the front out of the area, as it becomes more stationary near the Ohio Valley. As such, areas near/south of I-70 will see the high PoP's lingering through the start of the weekend. With the front generally parallel to the upper flow, waves of storms with heavy rain will be a concern, and a level 2 risk of excessive rainfall is in place for Friday/Friday night in that area. Severe-wise, both the NAM and GFS show low level winds ramping up Thursday evening across especially the southern half of the forecast area (>40 knots), suggesting an increasing MCS threat. Morning SPC Day3 outlook introduced a level 1 risk over most of the forecast area, but suggested a potential increase in risk as the details become more clear. The upper air pattern continues to show an evolution toward a strong high developing over the central Rockies and western High Plains during the weekend, then spreading across the central CONUS early next week. 500 mb heights near 600 dm are progged by the GFS and European models, which would be a couple standardized deviations above normal, and as we get closer to mid week, ridging would amplify just east of the Rockies. Core of the warmest weather in this pattern would stay more to our west, though seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected over our area through next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure over the region tonight will result in light and variable winds and primarily clear skies. This will set the stage for some fog development late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will set up out of the S/SW by midday with some diurnal cumulus around 030-040. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart DISCUSSION...Geelhart AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  408 FXUS64 KLCH 080511 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible along the sea breeze this afternoon. - Shower activity is expected to decrease for Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. - A weakness redevelops over the weekend along with deeper tropical like moisture helping to increase shower and thunderstorm activity. - Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.) && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection has dissipated through the past evening, however nocturnal showers may redevelop over the coastal waters and along the coast through early morning. The forecast reasoning hasn't changed much over the past few days. The subtropical ridge remains stretched from the Atlantic into the gulf. This is keeping a light onshore flow locally. Aloft, a weakness stretches along the mid-Mississippi Valley into west LA and east TX. This is between an upper ridge over the SW Atlantic and another ridge centered over the Rockies. The two upper ridge will bridge the gap over east TX and west LA through the second half of the work week. Rain chances will decrease today from the prior two days, however isolated to widely scattered convection is still anticipated this afternoon. Slightly lower chances are expected Thu and Fri. This weekend the ridge over the Rockies will build northeast and into the northern plains by Monday. As the ridge lifts northeast, a weakness aloft will once again develop over the norther gulf coast. Thunderstorm chances will once again increase. Temperatures will remain near climo norms for the date through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thunderstorms will once again increase through mid day to afternoon along the sea breeze. This could produce periods of lower vis and ceilings at any terminal. Winds will be light and generally south to southwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the gulf through the weekend. This will keep a light onshore flow in place. Isolated to widely scattered nocturnal showers and storms will be possible each morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 No fire weather concerns at this time. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected today along the sea breeze, however coverage will decrease Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds in. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05 AVIATION...05  635 FXUS61 KCLE 080512 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 112 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update... .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the eastern half of the area into this evening. No significant impacts are expected. 2) The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late Thursday into Friday as a cold front moves across the region. Heavy rain is possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest satellite and surface observations reveal a weak surface trough lingering across the eastern half of the area this afternoon. Although some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening, especially near the OH/PA border, the overall intensity and coverage of the precipitation will be limited compared to the previous couple of days, given a lack of forcing and increased mid-level dry air. Thus, not anticipating any significant impacts with the rain, other than a few brief heavy downpours. The weak surface trough appears to linger into Wednesday, albeit a bit further east, limiting rain chances to mainly NW PA or along the OH/PA border in the afternoon. As was the case over the past several nights, weak flow and a moist ground will result in patchy to areas of fog tonight into Wednesday morning, particularly inland across North-Central and Northeast Ohio. KEY MESSAGE 2... Attention then turns towards the next low pressure system and cold front Thursday into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be approaching from the north along and ahead of the cold front Thursday night, but also from the west Friday morning as a shortwave tracks east along the front into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region. Will continue to monitor timing and location trends for this shortwave. Though we can't rule out a stronger storm or two with this system, heavy rain and isolated flooding still appears to be the primary concern with PWATs approaching or exceeding 1.80 inches. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... The main aviation weather concern for this 06z TAF update will be some patchy to areas of fog possible through sunrise across NEOH and NWPA. For FDY, TOL, ERI, and CLE, MVFR light fog 3sm to 5sm will be possible between 09z and 13z this morning. The better chance for MVFR fog will be at MFD, CAK, and YNG between 08z and 13z with also the potential for a brief period of IFR 2sm fog and broken ceilings around 700 feet. We have TEMPO groups mentioning this potential. After sunrise, the patchy fog and any low stratus ceilings will quickly lift out to VFR conditions with mostly clear skies after 14z this morning. VFR is expected for the rest of the TAF period later today into this evening. Winds will be light and variable through this morning before becoming northwesterly to northerly 5-10 knots through the rest of today. Light and variable winds return again this evening. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Overall good marine conditions are expected today and tomorrow with winds around 10 knots or less and waves 1 foot. High pressure will keep the weather quiet over the eastern Great Lakes. A light land and lake breeze will be possible early this morning and later this afternoon. Southwesterly winds around 10 knots are expected Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will be with slow to pass through. Winds will eventually shift out of the north by late Friday. Next potential thunderstorms that could impact localized marine conditions is Thursday evening into Friday. High pressure will build back over Lake Erie this weekend with northeasterly flow 10 to 15 knots on Saturday and waves 1 to 3 feet. NW winds 5 to 10 knots expected Sunday and waves 1 to 2 feet. Marine headlines are not expected for Lake Erie through this weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kahn AVIATION...77 MARINE...77  797 FXUS61 KBOX 080515 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 115 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cancelled the flood watch for CT and lowered rainfall totals across Connecticut and Central Massachusetts to 1 to 2 inches. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast && .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues through this evening, shifting offshore overnight. Minor ponding in poor drainage areas possible. Dry conditions Wednesday with seasonable temperatures. - Warm, humid weather returns late in the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days but better chances looking to be on Friday. - Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain continues through this evening, shifting offshore overnight. Minor ponding in poor drainage areas possible. Dry conditions Wednesday with seasonable temperatures. Surface low pressure slowly shifts offshore tonight bring the bulk of the rain with it. Rain continues for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening with a brief pocket or two of heavier rain rates possible. Rain slowly shifts eastward tonight tapering off from west to east. We have had plenty of beneficial rainfall over the last 36 hours or so with 1"+ in many areas and 4"+ in isolated areas on the Cape/Islands. There have been reports of ponding water on roads and minor flooding in poor drainage urban areas, so expect that to be possible through this evening in spots. Overall not expecting a widespread flash flood threat with perhaps another few tenths to a half inch through the overnight. Any remaining showers exit the outer Cape and Islands before sunrise. High pressure settles in for Wednesday resulting in a dry day with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Winds will be light out of the N/NW with sea breezes possible along the east coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm, humid weather returns late in the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days but better chances looking to be on Friday. After a couple of soggy and seasonably cooler days to begin the workweek, by Thursday and Friday we turn warmer, humid and more unsettled again. Amid a broader WSW flow aloft, a weak disturbance aloft in that flow in vicinity of the lower Ohio Valley could bring some risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly to southwestern/southern portions of Southern New England later Thursday into Thursday night. Still think the better potential for storms is closer to the mid-Atlantic/north-central Appalachians closer to the disturbance aloft, so PoPs on Thursday are on the low side. Friday looks to offer a better potential for thunderstorms as a sagging cold frontal boundary from northern New England interacts with a warm and rather sticky (e.g dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s) airmass. Neither day harbors much in the way of severe weather potential with poor middle-tropospheric lapse rates leading to tall- skinny CAPE profiles and deep layer shear in the 30 kt range, and this is reflected by low to nil severe weather probs per NSSL/CSU severe weather machine learning guidance. Will point out the 12z deterministic GFS seems an outlier compared to multi-model consensus and its own ensemble, which offers a pretty coherent sfc low trekking through Southern New England on Friday and would bring another soaking rain. Warm and humid weather prevails both days with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, supporting heat indices in the mid 90s to mid/upper 90s, more likely falling short of heat headlines. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend. For the weekend the 500 mb pattern transitions to one of cyclonic flow/troughing in themean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to mid 80s) and lower humidity levels. Weekend appears favorable for outdoor plans with nice summer weather. We'll be on the western periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge of nearly 600 dm building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We could have to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the ridge but it looks as though the weekend ends up drier than not. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Wednesday: High confidence in trends but moderate on timing. Lingering sub-VFR ceilings and areas BR for BOS, PVD and the lift through 14z, and around 16z on the Cape. VFR thereafter. Northerly winds around 5 kt, but possible late-day seabreeze at BOS, after 19z if it develops. Wednesday night...High confidence. VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Majority of the rain has ended but areas of -DZ are possible thru 10z. Ceilings will be slowly lifting but not likely to go full VFR until mid- morning Wed. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Night...High confidence. Winds decrease across the inner waters allowing SCAs to drop off this evening. In the coastal waters, NE winds with gusts around 25 kts. Seas build to 5 ft tonight with areas of 6 ft possible in the outer waters. Winds decrease Wednesday morning; however, SCAs may need to be extended through Wednesday night for outer waters due to 5 ft seas. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250- 254-255. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/Mensch AVIATION...Loconto/FT MARINE...Loconto/Mensch  798 FXUS61 KPHI 080517 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 117 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation Section for 6Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly cloudy and cool weather overnight with the return of sunshine and warmer weather on Wednesday. 2) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through Saturday as a cold front approaches and crosses through the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly Cloudy and cool weather overnight with the return of sunshine and warmer weather on Wednesday. Overnight, the marine layer will likely remain in place. Given relatively moist low-levels from recent rainfall, guidance indicates that there may be some patchy areas of fog that develop overnight. Hard to pin point where exactly this may occur at this time. Otherwise, the frontal boundary that has been nearby the past several days will finally push well south of the area on Wednesday. With high pressure building in, this will yield the return on some sunshine with temperatures in the 70s and 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through Saturday as a cold front approaches and crosses through the region. Isolated showers start to develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning before coverage starts to increase more for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a piece of upper-level energy moves through the region. Winds out of the southwest on Thursday will allow moisture to increase through the day. From these showers and thunderstorms, there is the potential for heavy rain. PWAT values will increase to upwards of 2 inches along with a warm cloud layer process. All of this said, these showers and thunderstorms will have the ability to be efficient rainfall producers. There is also the signal for a marginal severe weather threat. Increasing instability as temperatures reach the 80s for many along with rising humidity and some supportive lapse rates are forecast. The magnitude of shear values supporting storm organization is a little more uncertain. The primary concern with any strong to severe thunderstorm is damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the Eastern Shore of MD in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms look to diminish in coverage into Thursday night. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms look to develop ahead of the cold front moving through the area into Saturday. Once again, as moisture increases ahead of the front, PWAT values look to increase upwards of 2 inches with these showers and thunderstorms having the potential to produce heavy rain. In terms of any severe weather threat, there is forecast to be instability present as temperatures reach near 90 for many along with increasing humidity. Shear values and lapse rates look more marginal currently. There remains uncertainty in how the whole set-up evolves in terms of support for severe thunderstorms. Some machine learning guidance does hint at a potential for a marginal severe weather potential though. Depending on how quickly the front sinks south of our area on Saturday will play a role in how much shower and thunderstorm activity lingers. A high pressure system will try to build in from the north this weekend which will start to limit the precipitation potential, particularly on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of overnight...There are likely to be some breaks in a low stratus deck overnight with cloud heights also fluctuating between 3000-3500 feet. General trend will be from MVFR to VFR through the night but there are likely to continue to be fluctuations back and forth. Northeast winds generally 3-7 knots. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...Generally VFR except MVFR cigs could linger at times through the morning at ACY and even potentially at MIV. All sites should be VFR by the afternoon though. Northeast winds 3-7 knots becoming south and then SW through the afternoon at around 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Thursday through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, but scattered showers and storms could result in temporary restrictions to MVFR or even IFR. Sunday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... North-northeast winds around 10-15 kt are expected to continue overnight with seas mainly around 3-4 feet. Some seas offshore may approach 5 feet overnight, but right now kept just below as guidance has waned a bit. Observations will continue to be monitored this evening. For Wednesday, northeast winds around 15 kt in the morning will diminish and settle out of the south around 5-10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3-4 feet. Fair weather expected. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...Conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast Thursday through Saturday. Rip Currents... For Wednesday, northeast winds will linger much of the day, strongest in the northern beaches, which when combined with moderate easterly swell at 7-8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk of rip currents across northern NJ beaches but LOW further south where winds are a little more relaxed (DE) and/or the shoreline is more parallel to the wind (southern NJ). For Thursday, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomes more southeasterly. This combination gives a MODERATE risk for the northern NJ beaches and DE beaches, but a LOW risk for the southern NJ beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Guzzo AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Guzzo/RCM MARINE...DeSilva/Guzzo/RCM  786 FXUS64 KMRX 080516 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 116 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 114 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day. - Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Currently, there are two areas of surface convergence that is focusing convection this afternoon. One over southern Kentucky into southwest Virginia and another over the northern Plateau. Scattered to numerous storms have developed there. PWs are from 1.7 to 1.8 inches with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Best theta-e ridge axis is over the northern Plateau. The 850-300mb mean wind is almost parallel with the west to east boundary over southern KY to SW VA. This area has the greatest threat for localized flash flooding. As this boundary sinks slowly south into northern Plateau/NE TN, there will be an increased threat there. The latest MPD also illustrates this threat of isolated flash flooding. Severe storm threat is limited to mainly the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee where DCAPES are the highest with values of 800- 900. Else where DCAPES are rather limited with values of 400-700. Mid-level lapse rates are also quite limited less than 5.5 degrees. For the remainder of today and this evening, an upper trough will remain across the mid-Mississippi valley with southwest flow over the southern Appalachians. Mid level water vapor loop continues to depict this upper low pressure trough quite well. REFS and HREF depicts scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon into the early evening hours. Noticed the latest radar shows an cluster of storms moving east northeast across northern Alabama which may move into southeast Tennessee late this afternoon. Besides the convection, low clouds and fog development are likely overnight with localized dense fog anticipated. For Wednesday and Thursday, this upper trough will slowly move east toward the region with southwest flow aloft remaining. However, the trough will weaken with the greatest chance of convection along and north of interstate 40. Overall, airmass changes very little so impacts from the storms will be similar to this afternoon's environment. For Friday into next weekend, a series of jet streak/short-waves will move across the Plains states, Ohio valley, into the mid- Atlantic Region. A frontal boundary will move across the region Sunday as well. Eventually a digging upper trough over the eastern United States keep the unsettled weather conditions with more widespread showers and storms. For early next week, upper trough axis moves east with surface ridging building into the Tennessee valley. Drier conditions can be expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main impact again through the night and early morning hours will be fog development, which has already been seen in and around TRI. At least temporary reductions to LIFR have been maintained for TRI with MVFR or less likely at TYS. However, the overall fog potential looks lower than last night. Throughout the day, a return to VFR is expected area-wide with near westerly winds. Scattered showers and storms are likely again with PROB30s added in at TYS and TRI. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 73 91 / 20 50 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 72 88 / 40 70 30 80 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 70 88 / 30 70 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN68 85 67 85 / 40 80 40 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...BW  792 FXUS64 KOHX 080517 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and weekend. Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible mid to late week, mainly west of the Plateau. - Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with stronger, slower-moving storms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Earlier convection has dissipated but moistened soils will increase chances for radiational fog tonight/early Wednesday morning. There's roughly a 20-40% chance for patchy dense fog to develop across Middle TN with locations that received rain earlier today being the most likely candidates. Tomorrow will be fairly similar to today. An upper low over western KY/TN will drift to the east and become more of an open shortwave trough by the evening. With plenty of instability and PWATs in the 1.75-2"+ range, scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Bulk shear will be meager, so chances are low for storms to become severe. Like today, the more likely outcome will be storms producing torrential downpours that could cause some localized flooding concerns. We'll warm up a bit on Thursday with slightly drier air moving in from the west thanks to the flow aloft becoming more zonal. This may keep the bulk of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms relegated to the eastern half of Middle TN, but any storm will still be capable of producing heavy rain with PWATs around 1.5-1.75". Heat indicies will reach the upper-90s to low-100s across the central and western portions of the state. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Greater chances for widespread diurnal showers and thunderstorms will return Friday-Saturday. There's a low chance for severe storms Friday and Saturday, but shortwaves moving through aloft will provide more shear than we've seen over the past couple of days, especially north of I-40. PWATs will continue to be high, meaning any storm will be capable of heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding concerns. Heat indices near 100 remain possible for areas generally west of the Cumberland Plateau through Saturday. Next week looks warmer and drier but without concern for dangerous heat indices like last week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Patchy dense fog will develop tonight mainly outside of the Nashville area and will bring periods of IFR/LIFR conditions. Fog should lift by 13z with VFR conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again after 17z and will continue through 02z. MVFR/IFR conditions in any showers or thunderstorms. Light winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 72 91 74 / 60 30 30 40 Clarksville 87 71 91 75 / 60 20 20 40 Crossville 82 66 83 68 / 70 30 60 40 Columbia 88 70 91 72 / 50 20 30 30 Cookeville 84 68 85 70 / 60 40 60 50 Jamestown 83 66 84 68 / 70 40 60 40 Lawrenceburg 86 69 88 71 / 50 30 40 40 Murfreesboro 88 70 91 72 / 60 30 30 50 Waverly 87 70 90 73 / 50 20 10 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cahill LONG TERM....Cahill AVIATION.....Mueller  804 FXUS66 KLOX 080517 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1017 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...07/207 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge building over the region. Some relief from the heat is likely this weekend as the ridge breaks down and opens the door for possible monsoon showers or thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...07/1016 PM. ***UPDATE*** Highs today were very similar to yesterday, notably cooler along the Central Coast, which saw morning marine layer clouds and warmer 80s and 90s for many valleys and the interior. Sundowner winds began early today, allowed for highs to reach the warm 80s along much of the Santa Barbara south coast. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer over the next few days, especially for the interior and valleys. However, highs were cooled slightly along the Central Coast where again we should see plenty of marine layer clouds. Winds have picked up significantly along the western Santa Ynez range this evening, with local gusts peaking around 55-58 mph over peaks and through windy canyons, supported by the offshore Santa Barbara to Santa Maria gradient peaking around 5.3 mb. Will likely need another wind advisory for this area to cover Wednesday evening, although winds may be a touch lighter than they were tonight. ***From Previous Discussion*** High confidence in moderate heat risk away from the coast through at least Thursday in response to a ridge peaking near 596 dm over the region Wednesday and Thursday before gradually weakening and shifting into the Four Corners region this weekend. No changes to the associated Heat Advisory that runs through Friday. Heat will peak for most areas Wednesday and Thursday before a decent cooling trend begins Friday. Peak highs are expected to be 70s to mid 80s near the coast, 90-105 valleys and lower mountains/desert. Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening (advisory in effect) and possible again Wednesday and Thursday evenings for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well as interior areas due to combined hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Night to morning low clouds will mostly be relegated to the Central Coast, although an eddy in response to the Sundowner winds may squeeze pockets of low clouds and dense fog under the building ridge, especially for southern Los Angeles County. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/206 PM. The ridge at least briefing breaks down this weekend before likely nosing back into the region during the middle part of next week. Broad southeast to southerly flow aloft will support a 10-20 percent chance (highest mountains and deserts) of monsoon showers or thunderstorms this weekend into next week. The added moisture may add to at least low to moderate heat risk in the region, with heat potentially building closer to the coast. && .AVIATION...08/0417Z. At 0346z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top of 2000 ft deep with a temperature of 27 C. High confidence in VFR for KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, cigs may be off by 1-3 hours. Low confidence in cigs for KSBA and southward, but there is a 30% chance for brief cigs. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no low clouds developing this evening. Low clouds could arrive as late a 14Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...07/849 PM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Thursday across the Outer Waters. There is a 50-70% chance of Gale Force winds Wednesday afternoon and again Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid- week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend. SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel greatest during the afternoon and evening hours through at least Thursday. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoons/evenings through Thursday. For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through tonight. Otherwise, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zone 368. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/Munroe AVIATION...Phillips/Rorke MARINE...RM/Lund/CC/SF SYNOPSIS...RM weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  817 FXUS61 KBGM 080517 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 117 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant change with the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity are expected across Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania today and tomorrow. 2) Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the region Thursday and Friday before quiet weather and high pressure build back in for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level low has shifted east with weak high pressure building in behind it. This will allow skies to gradually clear with winds becoming light and variable. Morning patchy fog is expected to burn off soon after sunrise. A cool start to the day will quickly give way to warming afternoon temperatures as abundant sunshine and the strong July sun angle help temperatures climb into the 80s across much of the region. Overall, a quiet and pleasant day is in store. Attention then turns to a weak shortwave approaching later this evening, bringing a small chance for showers across portions of the Southern Tier, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected elsewhere. KEY MESSAGE 2... Southwesterly flow develops Thursday as 850 mb temperatures rise into the +16 to +18 degrees C range. Surface temperatures should climb well into the 80s, with a few lower 90s not out of the question. Heat indices in the 90 to 95 degree range will be possible, especially across the Lake Ontario Plain and interior valleys. As temperatures and dew points increase, so too will the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A southern wave moving east across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic during the early afternoon will trigger isolated showers and storms from the Southern Tier of NY south into northeast PA. Later in the day a northern wave approaching from the northwest will generate a broader area if convection that progresses northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours. Model guidance continues to indicate favorable instability, with ML CAPE values around 800-1000 J/Kg and steep low level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest the cap may weaken enough for storm development, though shear remains on the weaker side and may limit sustained or mature convection. The early afternoon activity over northeast PA should remain relatively weak, with greater concern for strong to locally severe storms accompanying the incoming front from the northwest. Western and central NY will have more time to erode the inversion and tap into slightly stronger deep layer shear. Sounding profiles also support a localized flash flood threat, with long skinny CAPE, PWATS of 1.5 to 2 inches, and warm cloud depths around 11-12 kft. This threat appears greatest from Thursday afternoon through the overnight period, particularly across northeast PA. Temperatures Friday will be slightly cooler, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s, though dew points remain elevated in the 60s and lower 70s. A lingering boundary may serve as a focus for additional convection Friday afternoon and evening. The threat for stronger storms Friday into Friday night will need to be monitored as deep layer shear increases in response to a modest jet streak aloft and embedded shortwave. By Friday night a longwave trough will move through the region, ushering in a cooler and less humid air mass for the weekend with highs mainly in the 70s and lower 80s. Rain chances will also diminish considerably as a drier pattern settles over the area. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Any ceilings breaking up this evening or lifting to VFR early. Conditions continue to look favorable for fog formation overnight with IFR to LIFR fog possible at KITH,KBGM, KRME and KELM. VFR on Wednesday after any fog burns off. Outlook: Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM. Friday into Saturday...Cold front could move in and stall, leading to persistent showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT/ES AVIATION...MWG  837 FXUS62 KCAE 080519 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 119 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Airmass tomorrow is trending slightly drier, leading to lower dew points and heat index values. However, heat indices are still expected to be over 100F. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Hot conditions continue across the area, with limited chances for thunderstorms the next couple of days. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Hot conditions continue across the area, with limited chances for thunderstorms the next couple of days. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front. Mid to upper level ridging over the Florida peninsula is expected to build northward today, partially in response to a trough over the lower Mississippi Valley. Dry mid-level air is also expected to remain in place, which is forecast to mix down to the surface in the afternoon. This will lead to lower dew points than previously forecast, and subsequently lower heat index values. However, heat indices are still expected to reach the 100-105F range across the area this afternoon, with a few locations slightly higher. In addition, this drier air will lead to just a low (up to ~10-15%) chance for an isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the eastern portions of the forecast area. The aforementioned trough over the lower Mississippi Valley is expected to move eastward tomorrow and lift northward around the ridge over the area. As it does, the latest guidance stretches it out some. So, while the chances for thunderstorms are a bit higher tomorrow due to this, they do remain on the low side (up to ~20%). Lower rain chances continue on Friday as weak forcing continues. An approaching front for the weekend brings a greater chance for shower and thunderstorm activity to the region. Flow aloft is also forecast to become more zonal, which could lead to the front and associated precipitation chances lingering into next week. As has been emphasized over the past week, the ongoing heat remains a concern. Temperatures are expected to remain 3-6 degrees above normal through Saturday, with height indices reaching the low to mid-100s. Most locations should remain below Heat Advisory criteria (108F), so no Heat Advisories are anticipated at this time. Continue to practice heat safety, especially with prolonged heat expected to persist. Please remain diligent if you have outdoor activities planned. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A drier air mass in place today should yield relatively quiet weather with only isolated convection expected this afternoon, too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise typical diurnal cumulus is expected to develop by 15z with surface heating and southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots expected by 16z with some gusts to 15 to 18 knots during the afternoon due to deep mixing. Winds should diminish to around 5 knots by 09/02z. Low chances of morning fog/stratus. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Daily rain chances and possible restrictions continue through at least midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...29 AVIATION...23  840 FXUS63 KARX 080519 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms are likely (60-80%) Wednesday, primarily during the afternoon into the overnight bringing heavy rainfall. Amounts of 1 inch or more possible (30-50%) with localized amounts of 2-3 inches. - Strong to severe storms may accompany the heavy rainfall Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. - Seasonable temperatures are expected throughout much of the week with highs in the low to mid 80s before warming through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Rest of Today Fairly quiet conditions are expected to linger throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening as weak upper ridging remains situated across the region. There does appear to be some low potential for a stray shower or storm mainly along and north of I-90 ahead of sunset given a few hours where MLCAPE reaches 1000-1500 J/kg per RAP/HRRR/RRFS soundings. The main uncertainty regarding this potential is the lack of a definitive forcing mechanism for convective initiation. Currently thinking any convective development sits at a 10-15% chance. Wednesday - Thursday: Heavy Rain and Strong to Severe Storms More zonal flow takes hold late this evening into the overnight hours, allowing several shortwaves to translate eastward and spark convective development across portions of central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. CAM guidance and short-range ensembles such as the 07.12z REFS/HREF suggest the bulk of convective activity will remain to the north along a surface boundary that currently extends from South Dakota across Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin and along with it, the heaviest rainfall. However, towards the morning hours, showers and storms should begin to move into Taylor and Clark Counties (30-60%) bringing a period of heavy rainfall. The aforementioned boundary begins to slide southeastward through the Wednesday as another leading to showers and storms across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue along this boundary given favorable PWATs in excess of 1.7 inches, above the 90th percentile of climatology, and warm cloud depths of 10-12kft. Boundary relative flow is somewhat parallel rather than orthogonal such that the risk of training is slightly reduced. That said, there is still some decent probabilities for amounts greater than 1 inch of rain in the 07.13z NBM which sits at 30-50%. The 07.12z HREF/REFS 24hr LPMM also suggest some pockets of 2-3 inches are possible along and north of I-90 which would lead to some flooding concerns, especially over southeast Minnesota where the greatest rainfall amounts occurred last week. There is also some flooding concern for areas that see multiple rounds of rain such as north-central Wisconsin. That said, the progressive nature of the boundary should help keep mitigate some of the flooding risk. On top of the heavy rain threat, storms that develop Wednesday may become strong to severe. MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg would support stronger updrafts, although shear is the biggest uncertainty regarding organized convection. There is a few hour window where stronger 500hPa flow aloft elongates hodographs in the 3-6km layer, resulting in shear values of 30-35kts which would support some supercellular structures in storms that initially develop. This would result in a short period where hail could pose a threat, but given the previously discussed warm cloud depths and a WBZ height above 10kft, hail is a lower end threat. However, this upper flow quickly diminishes with time resulting in wind shear being confined to the 0-3km. Thiswould suggest the severe threat would transition to damaging winds as cold pool development and upscale growth to more of a linear mode occurs. Friday - Early Next Week: Warmer Temperatures Return Over the weekend, mid to upper level ridging begins to build across the United States which is noted in most/all of the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Heights associated with this ridge are expected to be fairly impressive, reaching 594-600dam at 500hPa, which the 07.00z NAEFS highlights as near or exceeding the maximum heights within climatology. Surface temperatures trend warmer this weekend into next week in response to these rising heights. There's still quite a bit of spread within the various ensemble suites regarding what the temperatures will ultimately be, but interquartile spreads suggest highs in the upper 80s are favored, but possibly reach into the low 90s. Dewpoint temperatures also increase during this period as the 07.07z NBM suggests a 30-60% probability to exceed 70 degrees highest over northeast Iowa, translating to apparent temperatures in the 90s. Will need to continue monitoring trends, but a return to warm and muggy conditions looks to be on the horizon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions throughout much of the overnight give way to shower and storm concerns throughout the morning through evening hours for Wednesday. Will have to watch to see if storms in north-central WI shown in the CAMs early this morning could make their way to the I-90 corridor (under 20% chance), however the bulk of the CAMs keep the I-90 corridor storm free until afternoon. MVFR to IFR reductions are to be expected with any storms and a few storms may be strong to severe with gusty to locally damaging wind gusts. Cigs will remain predominantly VFR outside of any storms but will lower to low-VFR and perhaps MVFR north of I-90 towards 06z Thursday. Winds will remain from the southwest throughout much of the day at around 6-12 kts. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Falkinham AVIATION...Naylor  826 FXUS64 KAMA 080518 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Hot temperatures continue to hold for the Panhandles with potential to see triple-digit temperatures this afternoon and Thursday. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to return starting tonight in the northwest, with activity possible clear into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure continues to dominate the combined Panhandles with temperatures reaching the upper 90s to 100-105. Mid level moisture continues to be present with cumulus clouds likely to form in the afternoon heat. Scattered high based clouds may continue to help provide relief for PDC and the Canadian River Valley from reaching full heating potential and is the one of the main reasons a heat advisory is likely not needed today or tomorrow afternoon. Breezy southwest winds associated with a surface trough will also help mix some of the heat from the canyon walls out of the park. With the mid level moisture, will be on the watch for some disturbances in the flow aloft to spark thunderstorms both this afternoon/evening and again tomorrow afternoon/evening. The northwest has the best chances to see storm activity move in from off the higher terrain to the west. Looking at having quasi northwest flow over the next day or two with the best chance for PoPs in the northwest to northern combined Panhandles. PoPs tonight are currently sitting at around 20 to 30 percent. Going into tomorrow, PoPs spread over much more of the area with the northern half of the combined Panhandles seeing 50 to 60 PoPs tomorrow night. This will be thanks to a much larger shortwave expected to move across the Central to Southern Great Plains. For today a modest 500 to maybe 1200 J/Kg of MUCAPE will be possible with little to no shear to work with. The main threat for potentially severe storms will be the high based LCLs and DCAPE values leading to a downburst potential. Strong lapse rates may lead to quick storm growth and with vertically stacked storms quick downbursts. Tomorrow, shear may increase some to around 25 kts with a slight increase in the severe potential. However, with such warm mid to upper levels, hail growth difficult to achieve. Gusty summer time thunderstorms likely to be the threat still just with longer lasting storms that could scattered across more of the Panhandles under better upper level support. CAPE values are progged to increase especially across the northern Panhandles, potentially upwards of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg MU. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Staying under the eastern periphery of a mid to upper level ridge, the combined Panhandles are expected to continue to see highs in the mid 90s to lower triple digits through the extended period. Mid to upper level disturbances are expected to continue to help with storm chances through the weekend as well. With PoPs increasing to upwards of 65 percent Friday night. Lowering back to 20s and maybe 30s Saturday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12Z TAF period. Southerly winds may be a bit breezy with some gust up to 25 to 30 kts. Also, before those winds pick up KDHT and KGUY may experience some LLWS between 10Z and 16Z this morning. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...03  011 FXUS61 KBGM 080521 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 121 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant change with the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity are expected across Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania today and tomorrow. 2) Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the region Thursday and Friday before quiet weather and high pressure build back in for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level low has shifted east with weak high pressure building in behind it. This will allow skies to gradually clear with winds becoming light and variable. Morning patchy fog is expected to burn off soon after sunrise. A cool start to the day will quickly give way to warming afternoon temperatures as abundant sunshine and the strong July sun angle help temperatures climb into the 80s across much of the region. Overall, a quiet and pleasant day is in store. Attention then turns to a weak shortwave approaching later this evening, bringing a small chance for showers across portions of the Southern Tier, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected elsewhere. KEY MESSAGE 2... Southwesterly flow develops Thursday as 850 mb temperatures rise into the +16 to +18 degrees C range. Surface temperatures should climb well into the 80s, with a few lower 90s not out of the question. Heat indices in the 90 to 95 degree range will be possible, especially across the Lake Ontario Plain and interior valleys. As temperatures and dew points increase, so too will the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A southern wave moving east across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic during the early afternoon will trigger isolated showers and storms from the Southern Tier of NY south into northeast PA. Later in the day a northern wave approaching from the northwest will generate a broader area if convection that progresses northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours. Model guidance continues to indicate favorable instability, with ML CAPE values around 800-1000 J/Kg and steep low level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest the cap may weaken enough for storm development, though shear remains on the weaker side and may limit sustained or mature convection. The early afternoon activity over northeast PA should remain relatively weak, with greater concern for strong to locally severe storms accompanying the incoming front from the northwest. Western and central NY will have more time to erode the inversion and tap into slightly stronger deep layer shear. Sounding profiles also support a localized flash flood threat, with long skinny CAPE, PWATS of 1.5 to 2 inches, and warm cloud depths around 11-12 kft. This threat appears greatest from Thursday afternoon through the overnight period, particularly across northeast PA. Temperatures Friday will be slightly cooler, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s, though dew points remain elevated in the 60s and lower 70s. A lingering boundary may serve as a focus for additional convection Friday afternoon and evening. The threat for stronger storms Friday into Friday night will need to be monitored as deep layer shear increases in response to a modest jet streak aloft and embedded shortwave. By Friday night a longwave trough will move through the region, ushering in a cooler and less humid air mass for the weekend with highs mainly in the 70s and lower 80s. Rain chances will also diminish considerably as a drier pattern settles over the area. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fog formation is expected through early this morning with IFR to LIFR fog possible at KITH, KBGM, KRME and KELM. VFR conditions expected at all terminals after 13z. Outlook: Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM. Friday into Saturday...Cold front could move in and stall, leading to persistent showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT/ES AVIATION...KL  043 FXUS64 KSJT 080522 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1222 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and dry conditions return for today though Friday with afternoon highs near or above the 100 degree mark. - Low to medium (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions today with temperatures around or slightly above normal. Highs will be in the 90s across much of the area and around 100 across the northwest Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The upper-level ridge will continue to be the main feature through Friday. This means hot and dry conditions will persist across the region during this time with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Conditions should remain below Heat Advisory criteria but this will be monitored. A new area of low pressure will develop at the surface across Oklahoma and Kansas by Thursday. As a result, southerly winds will become breezier with gusts over 20 MPH at times each afternoon. Looking ahead to this weekend, models are in good agreement that the ridge will shift to the northern Plains and strengthen. An area of vorticity will rotate around the base of this ridge into the southern Plains. This should lead to a more unsettled pattern with increased rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The winds will be from the south and a little gusty Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 97 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 92 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 95 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...21  114 FXUS63 KEAX 080525 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions continue with highs into the lower 90s on Wednesday. - Not as hot with multiple chances for rain and storms, some strong, Wednesday night though Saturday. - Hot and dry returns next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Rest of today and tomorrow... High pressure will slowly move east, but will still be the main force for us through the day tomorrow. This will keep us in the same mostly sunny and light wind setup through the day tomorrow. The slow ramp up in temperature will continue tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s as WAA drives more heat in. Wednesday night through the weekend... Wednesday night will see the upper high start to retreat, allowing for us to move into a more active pattern aloft where multiple shortwaves will move through. The first round on Wednesday night into Thursday morning will most likely be off to our west and north closer to the cold front and main area of forcing. Whatever develops will likely be decaying as it heads east, but some ensemble members do keep it together long enough for us to see some rain on Thursday morning. Chances for strong to severe storms are low for this as the better environment remains closer to the front. How this morning rain and possible convection plays out will be key in determining the heat impacts for Thursday. If we can stay cloudy from this rain it will limit the heat vs clearing out or staying clear will cause a more significant heat risk day. Overall right now it is south of I-70 that has the highest chance for heat impacts on Thursday as it will be farther from possible morning rain and closer to the WAA from the advancing warm front. It is this same warm front that will drive the next round of rain and storms for Kansas and Missouri. As this front lifts north it will provide the CI mechanism for the next round of storms. SPC has a marginal (1 out of 5) severe risk for Thursday tied to this chance. Ample instability, but more spread in guidance on the shear. Will need to get more CAM runs to better resolve where the severe threat could set up. This boundary looks to stall over us and will provide additional chances for rain until it moves out on Saturday. Next week...An impressive ridge looks to build in early next week with a possible 600 dm upper high possible over the Midwest. This would easily bring temperatures into the 90s. The bigger question on impacts will be how much moisture we will see. Current guidance has dew points right on the edge of what would be another week of extreme heat. Fairly high confidence on the temperatures, but less on the dew points and therefore the overall heat risk. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions under generally clear skies are expected through the period. Winds should be light and variable through the overnight period before becoming generally southerly by mid to late Wednesday morning, remaining light. The current TAF period should remain dry, but showers and thunderstorms may be possible after 6z Thursday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Carletta AVIATION...BMW  098 FXUS63 KIND 080524 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 124 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry and seasonal conditions today, low chance for rain in southern Indiana - Strong to severe storms and flash flooding possible late Thursday into Thursday night - Additional rain Friday through the weekend with pockets of flooding && .DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Overview. Dry and pleasant weather is expected for today with seasonable temperatures. On Thursday, a strong cold front will move into the region, bringing a risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding Thursday night. This front will then stall over the area, keeping chances for showers and storms in the forecast from Friday through the weekend and into early next week, leading to the potential for flooding with total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches. Today through Thursday. The broader synoptic pattern today features mid-level ridging centered over the Ohio Valley that will gradually suppress southward as a northern stream shortwave trough digs across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure positioned over the eastern Great Lakes will maintain a dry easterly to southeasterly low-level flow across central Indiana. Forecast soundings exhibit a notable mid-level subsidence inversion along with deep dry air. This dry airmass and large-scale subsidence will inhibit convective development today, keeping the entire forecast area dry with afternoon high temperatures rising into the mid-80s. The synoptic pattern transitions rapidly on Thursday as a northern stream shortwave trough deepens over Ontario, driving a surface cold front south-southwestward toward the area. Ahead of this boundary, a robust low-level jet will advect an anomalously moist, tropical airmass northward. PWAT values are modeled to surge toward 2.00 to 2.25 inches, which sits well above the 90th percentile for early July. HREF and ensemble guidance indicates rapid destabilization Thursday afternoon ahead of the front, with MLCAPE expanding to 1500- 2500 J/kg. Convective initiation is expected along and ahead of the front by late Thursday afternoon and evening. While deep-layer shear remains modest at 25-35 knots, linear forcing along the front will support organized multicell clusters and transient supercell structures. Damaging downburst winds and isolated severe hail represent the primary convective hazards. A flash flooding threat will develop Thursday night. As the surface front slows down and aligns parallel to the mid-level westerly flow, Corfidi vectors indicate a high potential for cell training. Warm-cloud depths exceeding 12,000 feet will optimize warm-rain processes, yielding exceptionally high precipitation efficiency. Localized rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour are anticipated, capable of producing widespread flash flooding and areal flooding across central Indiana overnight. Friday Through Tuesday. From Friday through the weekend, the surface frontal zone is forecast to become quasi-stationary across the Ohio Valley as it encounters a flat sub-tropical ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast states, blocking its southward progression. Within this weak steering regime, successive low-amplitude mid-level shortwaves will track along the frontal zone, interacting with the lingering tropical moisture reservoir where PWATs remain elevated between 1.75 and 2.00 inches. This setup will support daily rounds of convective clusters and multi-cell arrays through Sunday. Medium-range ensemble guidance (GEFS and EPS) exhibits high consensus regarding a prolonged, heavy rainfall footprint across the Ohio Valley due to this stalledboundary. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 60-80% chance of widespread total rainfall exceeding 2.00 inches across central Indiana through Sunday evening. Within corridors experiencing persistent convective training or repeated cell tracking, probabilistic clusters indicate a 30-40% chance of localized totals exceeding 4.00 inches. Given the saturated antecedent conditions expected from Thursday night's convection, this additional rainfall will sustain and exacerbate risks for river flooding and ongoing areal flooding through the weekend. The unsettled pattern will gradually transition into early next week as the main upper-level trough shifts into eastern Canada, allowing northwest flow aloft to develop over the Midwest. While the primary stalled frontal boundary will diffuse or push slightly south of the state, embedded shortwaves within the northwest flow will maintain daily chance-level probabilities (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures throughout the period will remain near or slightly below seasonal normals in the low to mid-80s due to widespread cloud cover and precipitation, though high ambient dewpoints in the lower 70s will maintain elevated humidity levels. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impacts: - None Discussion: Other than a low chance for patchy, non-dense fog towards daybreak today, VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with diurnal cu development towards 15Z. This cu will dissipate towards 00Z with high cloud coverage increasing through the night tonight. Winds will generally be light and variable through the TAF period, predominately out of the north through daybreak, then west to southwest during the day. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...White DISCUSSION...White  123 FXUS63 KMQT 080525 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 125 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening along the Great Lakes lakes breezes. - Showers and thunderstorms become widespread Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. There is a Slight Risk (category 2 out of 5) of excessive rainfall and up to a Marginal Risk (Category 1 of 5) of severe weather. - Temperatures will remain closer to normal through the mid-week, and start to increase by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 GOES water vapor and RAP surface analysis show a weak frontal boundary trailing a stout low centered over the Hudson Bay in Canada. Though this boundary led to some perfunctory convection across the WI border this morning, it has by now passed nearly out of the UP with no initiation. Clearing cloud cover has resulted in warm temperatures above 80 in most locations (in the high 80s in Menominee County) as well as an active cumulus field over the central UP. From radar imagery, a lake breeze initiated from the Lake Superior shoreline at approximately 1:30 pm, and has by now reached KI Sawyer. SPC mesoanalysis currently shows upwards of 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE across most of the CWA and up to 2000 J/kg in spots, as well as 1.1" - 1.3" of PWATs this afternoon. Between the diurnal instability and lake breeze, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible in the central UP this afternoon and evening. Some spots could experience stronger storms and higher accumulations; though the 90th percentile of NBM 6-hour QPF distributions is generally only 0.25", higher amounts can't be ruled out due to adequate buoyancy and plenty of moisture. The main story is the precipitation potential thanks to the Hudson Bay low shortwave approaching the region, which is expected to bring widespread periods of rain and thunderstorms throughout Wednesday and into Thursday. As flow becomes strongly zonal, this embedded wave brings vorticity maxes overspreading the CWA throughout the day on Wednesday. Models agree that some form of upper level lift, possibly enhanced due to rear-right entrance region positioning, will be present, though the exact placement and timing of the trailing jet streak lobe differ. Embedded within this flow is an east-west equivalent potential temperature boundary at low and mid levels which propagates slowly through the area on Wednesday, pressing from the arrowhead of MN between Tuesday evening and finally exiting southeast on Thursday midday. PWATs during this time frame are anomalously high: NAEFS ESAT table shows PWATs above the 90th percentile (1.5" - 1.75") covering the UP by 12Z on Wednesday and persisting for nearly 24 hours, with locally higher amounts (above 1.75"). Given the moist atmosphere and forcing mechanisms present tomorrow, we are outlooked in the General Thunderstorms, Marginal, and Slight categories by SPC, and in the Marginal and Slight categories by WPC's ERO. However, HREF mean SBCAPE tops out at 500 J/kg only along WI border, and HRRR shear profiles appear weak to modest at best. Thus, with lower potential for severe storms, the main concern is somewhat large rain accumulations throughout Wednesday and into Thursday. NBM shows up to 55% probability of over 1" of rain falling over a 24-hour period between Wednesday and Thursday mornings, and 6-hour distributions show that most rain will fall in the overnight hours on Wednesday evening. Though higher-end totals are below flash flood guidance, training showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as the theta-E boundary aligns with flow aloft. Though flood watches are not issued at this time, this possibility accounts for the WPC's categorization of the UP within a Slight Risk. The area dries out by midday Thursday as high pressure moves back in behind the Hudson Bay low, and temperatures should be relatively close to climate normal. Friday marks the beginning of a large ridge building over the Great Plains and extending from the Sierra Mtns to the Appalachians. Anticyclonic mid-level flow sends warm toward the Upper Midwest, resulting in very warm temperatures by Sunday && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions for most of tonight begin to deteriorate into the pre- dawn hours as a batch of showers, possibly with some thunder, approach the area. This will cause the flight category at all terminals to drop to MVFR, first closer to 10Z at IWD and then from 12-15Z at CMX and SAW. Ceilings lower further to IFR mid to late morning. Rain showers taper off at IWD and CMX Wednesday afternoon with a gradual improvement to VFR, but additional showers and storms will be possible at SAW into the evening. MVFR restrictions linger at SAW the rest of the forecast period. Generally light winds are expected through the TAF period, with the exception of the immediate vicinity of any thunderstorms that develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Light winds prevail on Lake Superior and the Bay of Green Bay through the period. Periods of rain and thunderstorms commence Tuesday evening through Thursday morning, with most activity expected Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. During this time, winds may be higher near outflow boundaries, though severe storms are not expected. As high pressure builds back in on Thursday, winds lay down through Saturday afternoon. Significant wave heights are expected to be less than 1 ft. Southwesterly flow picks up to 20 knots Sunday and Monday, with gusts to 25 knots and waves to 4 ft. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RE AVIATION...LC MARINE...RE  168 FXUS63 KTOP 080525 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry tonight and most of Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s into the 90s. - Chances for showers/storms return Wednesday evening and continue through Friday, though it won't be raining the entire time. - Near to above average temperatures hold this week before heat builds early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery along with upper air analysis showed a broad upper level ridge extending from southeast AZ, northeast across the central high Plains. A low amplitude upper level trough was rounding the upper ridge axis across the central Rockies. A more amplified upper level trough was moving onshore across BC Canada. A second upper level trough was located across the southern Hudson Bay region of Canada. The 17Z surface map showed a surface cold front extending from the western UP of Michigan, west-southwest across northern WI into central MN, then west across central SD into northeast WY. A lee surface trough was located across the central and southern high Plains. This afternoon and Tonight will be mostly clear. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday through Thursday night: The H5 ridge across the central high plains will flatten causing the mid level flow to become more zonal across the central Plains. A weak perturbation will move from the central high Plains east- southeast across KS. The combination of convergence along the surface trough in eastern CO, a surface cold front pushing south across western NE into northwest KS, and ascent ahead of the mid level perturbation will cause numerous thunderstorms to develop during the late afternoon and evening hours cross western KS/eastern CO. Several CAMs show these storms congealing into a complex of severe storms as they move east- southeast across west central KS and south central NE. RAP/HRRR CAMs forecast MLCAPE to increase to 2000-3000 J/KG by 00Z THU across west central and north central KS but the effective shear will remain below 30 KTS. If these storms maintain their intensity as they move east-southeast, then there will be a chance for damaging wind gusts across north central KS Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning. The Fv3 CAM shows a line of storms developing along a cold front across south central NE, that could move into north central KS earlier in the evening. Even though the instability axis decreases slightly as it shifts east ahead of the thunderstorm complex, the outflow boundary may undercut the complex of storms as they move east across northeast and east central KS, which may decrease the wind gusts to below severe criteria. However, if a complex of storms/QLCS keeps up with the OFB, then northeast and east central KS may see isolated severe wind gusts through the early morning hours of Thursday. Thursday, the front/outflow boundary will stall out across the far southern counties or just south of the CWA. The boundary will then extend west-northwest into western KS and eastern CO. The NAM12 and GFS forecast another complex of storms developing on the high Plains of eastern CO and moving southeast. At least the NAM12 shows the better theta-e axis extending from southeast KS, west-northwest into western KS and eastern CO. Therefore, the severe thunderstorm complex that develops in eastern CO, may move southeast and remain south of the CWA, though the southern counties may bet clipped by the severe thunderstorm complex late thursday night. HREF/NBM ensembles show a 50 to 60 percent probability of receiving 0.5" or greater of QPF across the CWA from Wednesday night through early Friday morning. Friday through Saturday: The front may remain nearly stationary along the southern counties of the CWA. The chance for showers and thunderstorms may continue as weak mid-level perturbations move east-southeat across the central and southern Plains. The H5 ridge across the Four Corners region will begin to amplify northeast across NE/SD and the chances for showers and thunderstorms will diminish through the afternoon hours of Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday: The H5 ridge will amplify across the northern and central Plains through Tuesday. The mid level winds will become easterly next week. TUTT lows may round the southern periphery of the H5 ridge axis along the Gulf Coast. The TUTT lows will provide enough ascent for thunderstorms across southeast and southern TX. The deep moist convection may block some of the richer Gulf moisture from advecting northward into the central Plains, thus dewpoints next week during the afternoon hours may remain below 70 degrees. Even with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s both Monday and Tuesday, the heat indices may only reach the upper 90s to near 103 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Some patchy ground fog is again briefly possible at KTOP towards sunrise, but otherwise VFR conditions with light south- southeast winds will continue for the next 24 hours. Any storms moving in from the west towards KMHK look to hold off until after the end of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Reese  174 FXUS64 KBRO 080526 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 * Hot conditions continue through the week. Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk each day, mainly in the Valley becoming more widespread this weekend. Heat indices will climb to between 100 and 110 degrees each day. * Daily thunderstorm chances will be low (generally under 20 percent) through Thursday, before increasing (to near 30 to 40 percent) Friday through Saturday. * There is generally a low risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The 500mb ridge is expected to pivot west towards Southern California into late this week, before working northeast towards the Northern Plains over the weekend and early next week. This will allow weaker pressure and increasing moisture to settle along the lower Texas coast for much of the forecast period, generally maintaining isolated sea breeze showers or thunderstorms each afternoon from east to west. The best chance of rain will occur Friday into Saturday, currently near 30 to 40 percent, with a shortwave disturbance along the coast increasing instability and a surge of above normal moisture Thursday through Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms late this week into next week will be efficient rain makers with rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour. Have heavily tweaked NBM POP grids into Day 5 to be a bit more realistic with coverage into Saturday and lean into typical sea breeze timing. Mid summer temperatures into the mid to upper 90s for most inland locations continue, with a cooler beach and warmer brush country. Expect a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through much of the forecast period, with brief relief where clouds, showers, or thunderstorms can develop. Long period swell increases into the weekend and early next week offshore, potentially bringing a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents along the lower Texas coast. Astronomical tides build this weekend as we near the New Moon, which may narrow already narrow beaches at high tide cycles this weekend into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR is anticipated at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Breezy winds during the daylight hours will become light for the nighttime. Clear to partly cloudy skies will also prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the coastal waters through most of the forecast period with strong high pressure northwest of the Gulf. Expect an afternoon chop each day on the bay, with Gulf seas of generally 2 to 3 feet, gradually building towards 3 to 4 feet late this weekend into next week with longer period swells. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 78 93 79 / 10 10 20 10 HARLINGEN 95 75 94 76 / 20 10 20 10 MCALLEN 99 77 97 79 / 20 10 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 76 97 77 / 20 10 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 87 81 / 10 10 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 91 79 / 10 10 20 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$  243 FXUS61 KOKX 080527 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 127 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Improving conditions expected tonight will lead to a gradual warming trend through the end of the week. 2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday afternoon and evenings. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Wave of low pressure passes well offshore tonight allowing for drier air to filter into the low levels. Dry conditions will return overnight and continue through Thursday morning. High pressure builds over the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will start to warm, but still remain below average with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The high pressure will shift to the southeast and offshore on Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs reaching near seasonable levels in the lower to middle 80s. The warmest day of forecast period will likely be Friday. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s. Max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures/heat indices will be lower for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The forecast heat indices on Friday are below the 1 day heat advisory criteria (100-104 for any length of time). .KEY MESSAGE 2... A weak shortwave aloft is forecast to pass across the northeast on Thursday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is likely to set up across the area. The combination of these features supports the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Modeling has differed in the placement of the focus for convection, but current consensus indicates the highest probabilities across the southern half of the area including the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. Showers/storms that develop in the afternoon may gradually work east towards southern CT and Long Island in the evening. CAPE values are not too impressive with forecast soundings indicating 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE away from any sea breeze influence. 0-6km shear is weak with on average of about 20 kt. This should limit severe potential and SPC currently only has the area in a general thunderstorm risk for Day 3/Thursday. A slightly more amplified shortwave trough axis is expected to pass across the northeast on Friday. This system should drag a cold front through the area late Friday into Friday night. The system will bring potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. The latest model consensus brings the highest probabilities to areas north and west of the NYC metro. Shear is a bit stronger averaging around 25-30 kt with similar CAPE valued as Thursday. Specific details on any severe weather threat are uncertain since this is still 4 days out, but CSU MLP does indicate a marginal probability for a severe thunderstorm. PWATs are progged to range from 1.75-2.00 inches both days. It is too early to determine if there will be any flooding impacts and WPC currently does not have the area in an excessive rainfall outlook. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The ensemble mean synoptic pattern across the CONUS indicates ridging across the west and NW flow/troughing over the east and Western Atlantic. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure will continue to pull away from the area overnight, while high pressure builds in fromthe west. The high then moves offshore by afternoon. Gradually improving to VFR from west to east overnight. NNE to NE winds less than 10 kt overnight will shift to the S/SW early Wednesday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of improving ceiling categories overnight may be delayed by 1 to 2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday-Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday-Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet through 18z (2 pm) Wednesday due to lingering 5-6 ft seas. Seas will diminish west of Moriches Inlet tonight and then on all waters on Wednesday with high pressure returning. A frontal system passes across the waters late Friday into Friday night. Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists into Friday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS AVIATION...DW MARINE...JP/DS  264 FXUS62 KMFL 080528 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 126 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - The heat will be the primary threat for the next couple days as overall rain chances remain lower. Heat indices will run from around 105 to 110 degrees each day, creating moderate to extreme HeatRisk each day. Wear light-weight, light color clothing and stay hydrated. - As drier air works into the area, rain chances decline for the next few days. Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible, with gusty winds and frequent lightning remaining the primary threats. - Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Weak ridging is in place across the FL peninsula as the subtropical ridge axis remains well to the east. In response, a light easterly flow continues throughout the column. This flow is beginning to advect a drier and more stable airmass into the region from the Caribbean, becoming more pronounced over the next 24 hours or so. As this drier air mixes into the region, the overall potential for thunderstorm activity will decline. There is still a window tomorrow morning for what will likely be lower-topped showers to develop before the drier air mixes through the column. However, once the sea breeze pushes inland, what thunderstorm activity remains should transition inland. Along the SWFL coast, this won't be quite be as pronounced. With a light easterly flow, this favors a slightly delayed sea breeze initiation. When the east coast sea breeze collides with the west coast sea breeze later in the day, the added moisture pooling should still support some thunderstorms. However, with some drier air, overall coverage is still expected to be lower; and unlike the east coast, there won't be any morning storms. With lower rain chances, there is an elevated risk for heat-related impacts. Early storms tomorrow along the FL East coast will favor higher dewpoints (and thus higher apparent or "feels-like" temperatures) until that moisture can mix out. Even once this occurs, the increase in ambient air temperature will negate any relief. Thus, heat indices up to around 110 degrees should be expected in the east coast metro. Meanwhile, a warm and humid start across the interior and SWFL will still favor high heat indices; maybe slightly lower through the morning, but ticking up to around 110 as daytime heating progresses. This will push the HeatRisk into the high category for the day. If spending time outdoors, be sure to wear appropriate clothing. Stay hydrated and in the shade as much as possible, take breaks, and know the signs of heat-related illnesses. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 While the overall synoptic patterns remains fairly static into next week, the dry air will not stick around for days. As the weekend approaches, the drier air will advect out of the region, once again replaced by deeper moisture. This favors better shower and thunderstorm chances across the region once again for Friday and Saturday. However, another pocket of drier air looks to advect into the region late into the weekend, with lower rain chances again on for Sunday and Monday. Once again, by the middle of next week, moisture rebounds and greater thunderstorm coverage returns. However, there will be some adjustments to the timing of thunderstorms as the ridge axis shifts farther away. In response to this shift, the flow will turn a bit more southerly (and more WSW along the SWFL coast). Overall, though, this won't lead to any drastic changes across the region. On days and in areas where there is better storm coverage, the overall impact from the heat will be lower. On the drier days, the heat impacts will again be more elevated with limited relief from thunderstorm activity. Regardless of thunderstorm activity, it will be important to continue practicing good heat safety. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Little to no rain chances across south Florida today. VFR should prevail through the TAF. Easterly flow will increase to around 10 knots along the east coast today, but for the west coast a light onshore wind will develop as the seabreeze fights the background easterly flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Drier conditions are expected across Atlantic waters beginning tonight and lasting through at least Thursday. As the subtropical ridge axis builds into the area, this may bring an uptick in winds and seas beginning Wednesday nigh. Winds will generally remain out of the east or southeast for the next several days, gradually subsiding again by late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 82 94 82 / 10 0 0 10 West Kendall 93 79 94 79 / 10 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 94 81 95 81 / 10 0 0 10 Homestead 93 81 93 81 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 83 93 82 / 10 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 82 92 82 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 95 82 96 83 / 10 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 92 80 93 81 / 20 0 0 0 Boca Raton 91 82 92 82 / 20 0 0 0 Naples 94 78 96 79 / 20 10 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>070-072-074-075-168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....Harrigan AVIATION...99  488 FXUS63 KGRR 080532 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 132 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slow moving front brings rain, storms late week - Upper High builds in early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Slow moving front brings rain, storms late week Quasi-zonal flow regime this week with upper height falls attending a slow-moving cold front sagging south through the Great Lakes. We will see chances for showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday night through Friday as the front becomes almost parallel to the flow. By Thursday, training of storms could result in minor flooding but in most areas rainfall should be beneficial rather than excessive. Severe weather chances are marginal Wednesday night with limited instability and deep layer shear. - Upper High builds in early next week The rains should end across the southern zones over the weekend as the front sags south then large scale subsidence and drying begins with an upper high across the Northern Plains edging into Lower Michigan. Expect warm and dry for early next week before heights fall as an upper trough amplifies across eastern Canada. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 132 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Still just a weak signal in the models for patchy early morning shallow fog. Any such visibility restrictions will end shortly after sunrise. Expecting few to scattered clouds at or above 5,000 feet today. From the complex of storms currently in northwest Wisconsin, there is a slight chance of them reaching Ludington (LDM) as diminishing showers after 16 Z. Additional thunderstorms developing in Wisconsin this afternoon may nose in toward MKG to GRR after 00 Z, though this is only supported by a few models among the HREF. Any surviving shower or thunderstorm complex would produce some northwest shifts in wind against the prevailing light southwest winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Fairly tranquil weather this week except for the possibility of thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy downpours Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Wind direction will be frequently changing with north winds tonight going south on Wednesday then north again on Thursday and Friday, but generally remaining at or below 15 knots. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ050-056-057- 064-065-071. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...CAS MARINE...Ostuno  473 FXUS64 KTSA 080532 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Isolated to widely scattered storm Wednesday - Thursday with localized downburst winds possible. - Heat builds Wednesday into Thursday and heat advisories may be needed. - Storm chances trend higher Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures likely near to slightly below normal through this same time frame. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The weak frontal zone that currently extends through far SE OK will lift northward through the day Wednesday. Dewpoints will trend higher for most locals by afternoon and heat index values of 100 to 105 will be common. A brief window of heat advisory criteria may develop but confidence is low in both extent and duration at this time. Isolated afternoon storms are likely Wednesday afternoon most anywhere across the forecast area. Coverage likely remains low but will include mentionable precip chances to reflect the potential. Stronger storms will be capable of downburst winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Stronger wave moves into central Plains Wednesday night with the low level jet responding with a corridor of high based convection possibly spreading into NE OK late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The veered low level flow and potential for lower dewpoints to mix eastward should result in the hottest temperatures of the week by Thursday afternoon. Heat advisory headlines appear likely at this time. Afternoon storm potential Thursday varies amongst model solutions but a low chance across northern locations appears warranted. This corridor will also be nearer slightly stronger flow so an uptick in severe potential could develop pending storm development. An MCS is expected to develop Thursday night across the High Plains and spread eastward toward the forecast area Thursday night into early Friday. This scenario carries uncertainties typical with MCS evolution, but the pattern is favorable and higher precip chances will be shown for northern portions of the forecast area. The pattern evolution over the weekend generally favors building ridging over the western CONUS which then becomes centered over the northern Plains by early next week. This keeps the local region on the periphery of the the upper ridge and allows for daily precip chances with temps near to possibly slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Few to scattered mid clouds are forecast across the CWA tonight through Wednesday afternoon as a frontal zone makes its way northeast through the region. Isolated areas of reduced visibility remain possible early morning with the greater potential for KFYV. Thus, will continue a tempo group for timing of greater potential. A slight chance of convection is forecast for parts of southeast Oklahoma early morning and then across much of the CWA during the afternoon hours. Due to limited anticipated coverage and impacts to any one terminal, will keep TAFs dry at this time. During the evening hours, as mid clouds dissipate, high clouds are forecast to begin spreading into northeast Oklahoma. Winds through the period start out variable and become south to southwest during the day Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 97 78 99 80 / 20 10 20 20 FSM 96 76 98 79 / 20 10 20 0 MLC 96 78 98 80 / 20 10 10 0 BVO 95 76 97 77 / 0 20 20 20 FYV 92 74 94 76 / 20 10 20 10 BYV 91 72 94 76 / 20 0 20 10 MKO 95 77 9779 / 20 0 20 0 MIO 93 74 95 77 / 0 10 20 20 F10 96 76 97 78 / 20 0 20 0 HHW 94 76 96 77 / 20 0 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20  474 FXUS65 KGJT 080532 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1132 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue today, favoring the terrain. - Chances for wetting rains remain low. Gusty outflow winds and dry lightning pose threats for new/existing wildfires. - Localized critical fire weather conditions emerge Thursday for southeast UT and southwest CO. - Afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal are forecast this weekend, with triple digits possible in most desert valley areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 LINGERING MOISTURE: The area of high pressure centered over the Four Corners will shift west today, cutting off the Western Slope from the little surge of moisture we've been under the last few days. Drier air begins to advect in from the west, although enough moisture is expected to linger in the mid-levels to keep the chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This activity will favor the higher terrain along the Divide, as well as the higher terrain of the eastern Uintas. Surface levels remain dry, limiting the potential for any wetting rain. A few hundredths to maybe a tenth of an inch are possible. The primary threats with any storms will be outflow winds capable of producing 35-45 mph gusts, and frequent lightning. Some of this moisture could linger into Thursday, mainly along the Northern Divide mountains, with similar impacts. FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL: Winds are expected to be relatively light through the next seven days, outside of those enhanced by nearby convection. However, an area of elevated winds is expected around the Four Corners, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible. As a result, localized critical fire weather conditions will be possible in this area. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN: As high pressure builds back into the Southwest this weekend, hotter and drier conditions will return for the Western Slope. Daily humidity minimums will be in the single digits to low teens, and temperatures will jump to 5-15 degrees above normal. Triple digit highs are likely for the lower elevations starting on Saturday and carrying into next week. For Grand Junction, it looks as though we'll get close to the all-time record high of 107 on Sunday, as the current forecast has a high of 106. Luckily, winds will remain on the lighter side, limiting fire weather concerns through the period. Even still, be aware of potential spark sources if out recreating this weekend. Additionally, be mindful if spending time outdoors in heat. Be sure to stay hydrated, wear loose and light-colored clothing, and limit activity during the hottest part of the day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue at this hour but they will continue to diminish through the overnight. Still, some gusty winds and some lightning will remain possible. Tomorrow, enough moisture will remain in the atmosphere for another day of isolated convection though coverage will be less than seen today. Gusty outflow winds will be the main concern. Did not include any storms in TAF sites. VFR conditions will remain in place with some minor smoke also remaining possible across the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Isolated dry thunderstorm concerns continue today and possibly into Thursday before storm potential almost entirely diminishes. Surface relative humidity values remain low, below 20%, across the lower elevations. Greater surface relative humidity values in the higher terrain, especially across the highest elevations of the San Juan Mountains, should allow for more rain to reach ground. Chances of wettingrains remain low, under 10%, but not zero. A few storms could be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall through the evening which, if they track over an active fire or burn scar, could prompt debris flow concerns. The probability of this remains low, but non-negligible. Dry thunderstorms still remain a concern through the evening hours, bringing about a risk of new lightning ignitions and gusty outflow winds which could impact new and existing wildfires. As hotter and drier conditions settle in Friday and into the weekend, fire conditions could become exacerbated. Lighter winds are expected through the weekend, however pockets of 25-35 mph gusts are possible across southwest Colorado and Southeast Utah. Coverage of these gustier winds will be limited, however, keeping critical fire weather conditions localized. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...BGB/TGJT  678 FXUS66 KPDT 080537 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1037 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm to hot, dry, and breezy to locally windy conditions will continue through the week. Elevated fire weather concerns to continue in the Columbia Basin and Kittitas Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Convection over the Blue Mountains and Wallowa County will taper off and/or exit to the northeast over the next few hours. Farther west, there is a very low (5-10%) chance of high-based showers developing over the Columbia Basin overnight. /86 Temperatures will cool off tomorrow and through the week with an oncoming shortwave allowing high temperatures to drop in the upper 80s to low 90s through much of the lower elevated regions (70-90% chance). Breezy winds will continue with tight pressure gradient formation via shortwaves and oncoming low pressure systems with sustained winds of 10 to 25 mph from the west and northwest. Otherwise, not anticipating precipitation with the lack of moisture and low precipitable water values. Temperatures remain steady in the upper 80s to low 90s through the rest of the week (70-90% chance). /95 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast at all sites for the next 24 hours. Breezy winds will persist into the night for wind-prone sites within the Columbia Basin, with more variable winds for central Oregon sites. There is a very low (5-10%) chance of high-based showers developing overnight across the Columbia Basin, but confidence was too low to include any mention in the 06Z TAFs. PDT has observed reductions in VSBY down to as low as 5-6SM the past few mornings around sunrise due to smoke from the nearby North Cayuse wildfire. Westerly to southwesterly winds overnight tonight should keep VFR conditions in place (80% confidence) Wednesday morning. /86 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry air with breezy winds will persist through the Columbia Basin and Kittitas Valley through at least Friday/Saturday (70-90% chance) allowing elevated fire weather concerns to prevail. Isolated areas across WA690, WA691, and OR691 could reach red flag criteria through the week. /95 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 59 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 65 90 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 64 93 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 60 92 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 63 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 57 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 52 86 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 59 88 53 87 / 30 0 0 0 GCD 55 90 51 89 / 10 0 0 0 DLS 61 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...95  734 FXUS63 KIWX 080538 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 138 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet today with highs in the mid/upper 80s. - Thunderstorms are likely Thursday evening and overnight. Isolated severe storms and heavy rain are possible with the best chances south of US-30. - Low chances for a few storms Friday and Saturday but turning dry and hot again next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another tranquil weather day today as broad mid/upper level ridging and low level theta-e sink remain centered directly over our CWA. Some patchy fog is possible this morning but limited near- surface moisture and some clouds in the SE will keep coverage and density in check. Highs today likely very similar to yesterday though perhaps a degree or two warmer given some subtle WAA and airmass modification under strong July sun. Lows tonight only in the mid/upper 60s due to slowly increasing low level moisture and a slightly warmer afternoon. Main forecast concern is thunderstorm potential Thu evening/ overnight. A weak (convectively modified) midlevel shortwave will approach the area Thu evening. A modest increase in low level SW flow ahead of this wave will bring better moisture into the region but it's worth noting far better theta-e surge remains focused over central and southern IL/IN. Midlevel lapse rates remain paltry and 0-1km MLCAPE values likely struggle to get much above 1000 J/kg. Wind/shear profiles are also light with only around 20 kts of flow at 850mb and 0-6km bulk shear values are 25-30 kts at best. These parameters are marginally supportive of a few strong/severe storms. However, expect coverage of strong storms to remain low given weak mid/upper level support for upward ascent and better moisture convergence focused to our south. The best chances for a few strong storms currently appear to be roughly 22-04Z south of US-30 but that could change over the next 24-36 hours. Will also have to keep an eye on the overnight hours as some solutions send an MCS through central IL/IN late Thu night into Fri morning that could clip our southern zones with some heavy rain. Still think better chances for this will be just south of our area along the main moisture gradient but confidence isn't high and will watch this closely over the next few forecast cycles. The rest of the forecast is mainly quiet. A few SCT storms will be possible again late Friday and perhaps on Sat. Friday's chances will be dependent on exact timing and evolution of potential morning MCS but suspect a return to dry/stable NE flow behind this wave will keep most of the area dry for most of this time. Again, best chances for a stray shower/storm will be south of US-30. No severe weather expected given even more marginal instability and shear profiles. Large/strong (600+ dam) midlevel ridge then expected to develop over the central CONUS early next week and likely nose into our region at some point. Still some disagreement here with GFS keeping the ridge just to our west and allowing a backdoor cold front midweek while ECMWF (and to a lesser extent the Canadian) bulldoze the ridge into our region leaving us hotter and drier. Slight preference for the latter but overall no changes to the concensus initialization at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Patchy fog/BR is the main aviation concern this morning. Overall moisture profiles don't support a widespread/dense fog threat but some patchy BR can't be ruled out, especially at KFWA. Will hold with just a TEMPO MVFR mention for now given low confidence. Otherwise VFR conditions with just a few diurnal cu and light SW winds. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT Wednesday night for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078-177- 277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...AGD  763 FXUS64 KJAN 080539 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels of heat (limited to elevated) will return late this week and persist into the weekend. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The showers/storms have dissipated across the area this evening and expect mainly partly cloudy skies to prevail overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s./15/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Through Wednesday night: For this afternoon at least, the forecast area is getting a temporary reprieve from the active convective pattern, but a semi-organized convective cluster over north MS is developing southward, and outflow from this system this should increase thunderstorm chances along the Hwy 82 corridor as we approach early evening. Any storms that develop should diminish later this evening with mostly quiet weather conditions overnight. Going into Wednesday, we may see greater diurnal storm coverage with the continuation of cyclonic upper level flow associated with the LMV trough. Thursday through the weekend: Rain chances will diminish for Thu- Fri as the subtropical ridge rebuilds over the forecast area. Accompanying the building ridge will be an increasing heat danger risk with H850 temps approach 21 deg C and low level flow developing a more westerly component. For now, we will message this threat with a heat danger graphic, but expect that a heat advisory will eventually be needed for portions of the area. Early next week: Global models have a had a strong signal for a shortwave trough rotating around the ridge and sending a boundary toward our area in the Mon-Tue time frame, and this could support a significant round or two of convective rainfall. Along with this, the heat would diminish to below dangerous levels. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR flight conditions with light, southwesterly winds will prevail through the period. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 73 93 73 / 40 10 20 0 Meridian 92 73 93 74 / 30 10 40 10 Vicksburg 91 75 93 75 / 50 20 10 0 Hattiesburg 94 75 94 75 / 30 30 30 0 Natchez 93 75 94 74 / 30 20 10 0 Greenville 91 74 94 76 / 40 10 10 0 Greenwood 92 74 94 75 / 40 40 20 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/SW  784 FXUS65 KABQ 080539 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1139 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1135 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week. A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day. A low risk of severe storms exists on Thursday across northeast NM. - Hotter temperatures through the weekend will result in a moderate heat risk across lower elevation locations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure aloft has started building more over northwestern NM with overall higher PWATs of 0.8 to 1.0 inch in this region. Some spokes of relatively drier air have rotated into the southeastern half of the state, lowering theta-E values and convective potential there. This will keep the northwestern half of NM favored for storms through the evening with very slow clockwise steering flow around the upper high. The slow storm motions will allow for heavy downpours, but northwestern areas will have a lot of dry sub-cloud air to contend with (surface dewpoints in the 30's and low 40's) and overcome, so virga and dry storms with gusty and erratic winds will be of concern there. Storms will slowly propagate into valleys and lowlands through the evening via outflows and mesoscale cold pools, but again overall storm motion will be sluggish, often at 5 mph or less. By Wednesday, the upper high will elongate westward from western NM into the Pacific. This will allow drier air to start wrapping into northwestern NM while a southwest-to-northeast oriented corridor re- establishes itself over the state. Consequently, storms will reduce over northwestern areas Wednesday while expanding more eastward off of the Sangre de Cristos during the afternoon and early evening with remaining southwestern and central zones replaying similar to today. Temperatures will gain a degree or two in many zones, posing minor to locally moderate heat impacts with lots of 90's being observed. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Into Thursday the high will remain elongated on a west-east axis, centering just offshore of southern CA. This will actually introduce a modest speed max aloft (50-60 kt at 300 mb) that will nose its way toward the Four Corners. This will introduce enough momentum aloft over northwestern NM, enough to mix down some drier air and breezy west winds (gusts to 25 mph). This drier air will shut down storms in northwestern NM Thursday afternoon, but remaining areas should still observe isolated to scattered storms. The upper high builds its centroid back over NM on Friday with more dry air pivoting into the state from the northwest. This will further eat away at our storm coverage on Friday with the southwestern, south central and northeastern high country still left supporting scattered afternoon cells. The aforementioned speed max aloft will be weakening as it traverses CO into KS on Friday, so surface breezes are not projected to be quite as high as on Thursday. This jet on Friday looks to usher a shortwave trough into the southern plains, that could send convection into northeastern NM Friday night while setting the stage for more storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristos on Saturday, as moisture and upslope flow could increase there. High pressure would start to build north of NM into Saturday, and more-so into Sunday and Monday. This will allow a seepage of subtropical moisture into the southern half of NM early next week. The shortwave in northeastern NM on Friday could add some enhancement to storm development as it pushes southwestward through the weekend, but there is fairly low confidence on the trajectory of this feature so far out. For now, the POPs favor northeastern zones Saturday, shifting toward southern high terrain areas Sunday and Monday while warm to hot (near to slightly above normal) temperatures prevail. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Lingering -SHRA with broken mid level cigs will clear gradually thru sunrise. SHRA/TS will develop over the high terrain between 12pm and 2pm then move erratically south and east into nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset. Direct hits will be capable of outflow wind gusts near 40KT, brief moderate to heavy rain, patchy BLDU, and lightning strikes. SHRA will linger over central and eastern NM thru Wednesday evening along with broken mid level cigs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Storms will favor the northwestern half of NM through the evening, but overall wetting footprints will be quite small and isolated. In the northwestern parts of NM, drier low layer air will keep storms from being as efficient at producing rainfall as they otherwise would, so virga, gusty and erratic winds, and dry lightning will continue to pose a threat there through the evening. Drier air will spill farther into northwestern NM on Wednesday, and even more each day through the end of the week, leading to fewer storms there. Meanwhile, slow-moving thunderstorms will continue to develop over remaining high terrain areas before slowly propagating into adjacent valleys and lowlands during the evenings. One day of modest concern is Thursday when stronger winds aloft will mix down to the surface, especially in northwestern zones where gusts of 25 will be common with a few gusts even reaching close to 30 mph. Humidity will have lowered considerably by this time (below 10% in the afternoon). Westerly breezes will redevelop over these areas again on Friday, but speeds will come down 5-10 mph. The focus for storms will shift along and east of the central mountain chain Saturday, before slowly pivoting toward the southern half of the state through early next week. Opportunities for soaking rainfall will still be rather isolated and sparse, so relief to our dry fuels and high ERC's will be slow to come. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 98 64 98 / 5 0 10 0 Dulce........................... 49 93 50 93 / 20 10 20 5 Cuba............................ 58 92 58 92 / 20 20 10 5 Gallup.......................... 56 92 56 93 / 10 30 10 5 El Morro........................ 57 87 56 89 / 10 50 10 10 Grants.......................... 56 91 56 93 / 10 40 20 20 Quemado......................... 58 88 58 90 / 20 70 50 10 Magdalena....................... 64 89 64 92 / 5 40 20 40 Datil........................... 59 85 59 88 / 10 60 20 20 Reserve......................... 54 93 54 96 / 10 60 50 40 Glenwood........................ 58 97 58 100 / 20 40 20 40 Chama........................... 48 84 49 85 / 30 30 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 63 88 63 89 / 30 40 10 30 Pecos........................... 56 90 56 92 / 20 40 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 86 55 87 / 50 20 20 20 Red River....................... 48 76 48 77 / 50 30 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 43 81 42 82 / 20 50 20 20 Taos............................ 52 88 53 90 / 30 20 10 20 Mora............................ 53 85 54 86 / 30 40 20 40 Espanola........................ 60 96 61 97 / 30 10 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 62 9061 91 / 20 10 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 93 59 94 / 10 10 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 98 66 99 / 10 10 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 97 66 99 / 10 10 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 99 65 101 / 5 10 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 99 67 100 / 10 10 20 10 Belen........................... 64 99 64 101 / 5 10 20 10 Bernalillo...................... 65 99 65 100 / 20 10 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 62 98 62 100 / 5 10 20 10 Corrales........................ 65 99 66 101 / 10 10 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 63 98 63 100 / 5 10 20 10 Placitas........................ 66 94 67 96 / 20 10 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 66 98 67 100 / 10 10 20 10 Socorro......................... 70 101 71 102 / 0 20 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 91 62 92 / 20 10 20 10 Tijeras......................... 62 92 62 94 / 10 10 20 10 Edgewood........................ 58 92 59 94 / 10 20 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 94 54 95 / 10 20 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 57 89 57 90 / 10 30 20 20 Mountainair..................... 60 92 60 94 / 10 20 40 10 Gran Quivira.................... 60 90 61 92 / 5 20 60 20 Carrizozo....................... 64 93 67 95 / 5 10 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 58 86 61 87 / 5 30 30 50 Capulin......................... 56 88 54 86 / 20 40 20 70 Raton........................... 54 92 53 91 / 20 50 20 40 Springer........................ 55 93 55 92 / 20 30 10 50 Las Vegas....................... 56 89 56 90 / 20 30 10 40 Clayton......................... 65 96 63 94 / 10 20 20 40 Roy............................. 61 92 60 90 / 5 40 20 30 Conchas......................... 66 100 65 99 / 5 20 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 64 96 64 96 / 5 20 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 69 100 69 100 / 0 0 20 10 Clovis.......................... 67 97 67 98 / 0 0 5 10 Portales........................ 67 98 69 100 / 0 0 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 67 98 68 99 / 0 0 10 20 Roswell......................... 69 99 71 101 / 0 0 10 10 Picacho......................... 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 20 30 Elk............................. 59 91 62 92 / 0 5 10 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...42  849 FXUS61 KALY 080541 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 141 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Mentioning the showers have ended and patchy to areas of fog developing tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The showers ended with patchy to areas of valley mist and fog developing tonight. 2) Temperatures will begin to warm again beginning tomorrow, though lower humidity will likely keep heat indices below dangerous levels in most places through the end of the weekend. 3) The next chances for thunderstorms come Thursday and potentially Friday with the passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure continues to move away from Cape Cod late this afternoon. High pressure will be ridging in over NY and New England tonight. The clouds will continue to erode from the I-90 corridor south and east overnight. Patchy to areas of radiational mist/fog will form with clear/clearing skies, recent wet ground and light to calm winds from north to south over the region tonight. Some of the fog may be locally dense in the valley areas. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure swiftly builds into the region behind the departing system tonight, reinforcing dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England. Dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place through at least Thursday morning with temperatures trending to and just above normal. That said, highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with low enough levels of humidity as to not pose any risks of heat-related illness. A few degrees worth of warming Thursday with higher dewpoints may challenge our Heat Advisory criteria, particularly throughout portions of the Hudson River Valley, but confidence is low in this element of the forecast. In fact, the latest LREF indicates a less than 10% chance for heat indices greater than or equal to 95F Thursday. Seasonable to just above seasonable warmth will then continue through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3... The next best opportunity for convection will be Thursday and potentially Friday as a series of boundaries track through the region. There continues to be some uncertainty pertaining to the timing of the boundary progressions. However, at this time, the best opportunity for thunderstorms looks to be Thursday as clouds may limit our instability for Friday. And while confidence is not yet high in the severe potential, medium-range guidance suggesting 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and 25-30kt of bulk shear hint at the potential for some organization of any developing storms. We will continue to monitor over the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thu...Skies continue to clear tonight with radiational fog already underway at KGFL with vis bouncing between MVFR and IFR. While ALB and PSF remain VFR, the low dew point depressions indicate fog will likely develop now through 08 UTC with IFR vis/cigs persisting for 1 to 3 hours before the morning sun burns it off. Less confidence at POU where clouds have lingered so only show a TEMPO group for IFR vis/cigs from 07 - 11 UTC. Then, high pressure today will quickly result in clearing conditions and VFR conditions returning by 12 - 13 UTC. Winds will remain light and variable through the end of the TAF period at all sites. Additional fog may redevelop again tonight, highest confidence at GFL, given increasing humidity and mainly clear skies once again. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday to Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIGWX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...31  802 FXUS61 KILN 080540 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 140 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes from previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow primarily south of I-70. 2) A larger system arrives near the end of the working week, reintroducing a heavy rain and localized flooding threat. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A loosely organized low lifting northeast from the Gulf through the Appalachians this evening into Thursday. As this system clips our southerly counties, a renewed chance for largely diurnal scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Overall severe threat is low, but an increase in low and mid level moisture (PWATs around 1.9 inches along the Ohio River) and training storm motion may result in an isolated flooding threat. KEY MESSAGE 2) Attention then turns toward the end of the working week and into the weekend when the chances for heavy rainfall increase. A slow moving cold front sagging down from Canada will lay out zonally across the southern Ohio Valley. This zonal flow will provide the focus for several shortwave disturbances to ride along and drop southeast through the Great Lakes region later this week. These features look to impact our area Thursday through Saturday, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms once again expected in a very moist airmass. PWATs of 2+ inches, skinny CAPE, the potential for W to E training storms, and multiple rounds of storms will introduce a heavy rain and localized flooding threat. While our entire area will receive accumulating rainfall, the greatest QPF footprint appears currently to be across central Kentucky, with a widespread 1-3 inches currently painted across KY from Thurs- Sat based on ensemble plumes, with the gradient lessening the farther north you go. Of course, locally higher amounts will be possible with stronger storms and those locations is where the greatest flooding threat will be. Many details still remain to be worked out, but will likely start messaging the heavy rain threat for areas south of I-70. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Once again, patchy fog develops across the region in nearly calm conditions, though the densest should be confined to southeast Ohio/ north central Kentucky. For now, have only dropped VSBYs briefly at LUK, ILN, and LCK. Fog should burn off after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions. Diurnal cu are expected with some high clouds drifting in. Scattered PM thunderstorms are expected in southern Ohio/ north central Kentucky, though the signal seems to remain well southeast of our TAF sites. However, mentioning the the chance here for awareness. Winds out of the north on Wednesday should be around 5 knots or so and will subside again after sunset to light and variable. Patchy fog is once again possible Wednesday night. Outlook...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Aiena AVIATION...Aiena  816 FXUS63 KFSD 080540 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is potential for strong to severe storms tonight. Large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging winds to 70 mph are the main hazards. An isolated tornado is possible as well. - Strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening along and south of Highway 18. At this time, there is only a 20-30% chance for storms to become severe but trends will be monitored. - High temperatures look to rise to the 90s to 100 degree mark towards the end of this coming weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 913 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The forecast for tonight remains largely on track with a couple of exceptions. The first being the delayed onset of convection. The CAMs guidance for tonight continues to indicate stronger storms should be on going over central South Dakota as of 9 pm CDT. This delay may be due to the fact that warming through the mid-levels has been stronger tonight than originally forecast earlier today. This warming continues to keep a cap on the environment preventing surface based convection from initiating. Second, convergence at the surface is rather weak. With no strong forcing for ascent, there just isn't the kick needed to get air parcels moving upward. However, in the next couple of hours the mid-level wave moves northeast through the region and the LLJ intensifies. From this point an increase in strong to severe elevated convection is still anticipated. The main threats remain hail to the size of a ping-pong ball, wind gusts to 70 mph, and heavy downpours. As the system grows upscale into a line, the main threat will transition to damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. One final note: the best storm dynamics remain along and north of Highway 14, and it is this area that has the highest risk for severe weather. This is outlined in SPC Day 1 Outlook of a Slight (level 2 of 5). Outside of storm chances winds will be light and variable and lows will be warm in the upper 60s to low 70s. Short term guidance diverges here on how storms will evolve Wednesday morning through the rest of the day. The HRRR and the RAP keep broader showers and thunderstorms going along the slow moving front, bringing rain to most of the region. The HiResARW, FV3, and NamNest keep showers and storms very isolated keeping most of the region dry. Broader mid-range guidance tells a similar story with some favoring more widespread showers and others more isolated. As far as the rest of Wednesday, persistent and thicker cloud cover will keep our highs a bit cooler than the past two days, in the 80s to low 90s for areas along and south of Highway 18. Lows will be in the 60s. The quasi-stationary front continues to slowly sink southeast through the day Wednesday. Fairly good Theta-e advection brings in more rich, unstable air that pools along the south side, mainly over northeast Nebraska, extreme southeast South Dakota, and northwest Iowa. A strong cap will be in place for much of the afternoon, but will begin to erode by the early evening. Similar to tonight a shallow mid-level wave will progress east through the region at the same time the LLJ increases. This should work to trigger another round of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms with hail to the size of a quarter and 60 mph wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet conditions persist this afternoon with high temperatures warming to the mid to upper 80s and low 90s. Latest satellite and surface obs show a , outflow boundary from morning storms that is set up along from Huron South Dakota to De Smet South Dakota, to Canby Minnesota. The main effective boundaryis also visible on satellite well northwest of the area. These boundaries will serve as the areas for new thunderstorms to develop on later this afternoon as a mid level wave interacts with the boundaries. Large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging winds to 70 mph will be the main hazards. While the tornado threat will be mostly north and west of the area, a local/isolated tornado threat is possible along the boundary as the mean wind is oriented parallel to it, allowing for a longer resonance time for a storm to ingest the boundary driven helicity. These storms look to develop later this afternoon around 5 pm or later as the mid level wave catches up to the boundary. A second round of showers and some storms will develop across the Black Hills this afternoon and push eastwards. These storms will cross the state of South Dakota and get into locations east river this evening. The environment does not look all that favorable as less moisture (and associated instability) will be available in this area. At the same time, vertical shear will also be weaker in this same area as well. While the strengthening low level jet could keep elevated showers and isolated storms going, any storm that persists into the forecast area is not expected to be strong to severe Any chance for a strong to severe storm will come to an end by 3 am or a little earlier. Though these showers may persist through the forecast area overnight. Latest guidance shows these showers continuing to persist throughout the day on Wednesday. This will bring some cloud cover to the area which will keep temperatures just a little bit cooler. As the same time, the previously mentioned boundary will be sliding southwards through the area. This boundary looks to slide just far enough to the south that additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms could develop on it. Latest hi-res guidance shows these storms developing across parts of northwest Iowa tomorrow afternoon before exiting the area in the evening. While this looks to be the consensus amongst the guidance, some uncertainty regarding how far south the boundary gets remains. If the boundary gets hung up, then severe storm chances could increase during the daylight hours tomorrow. As of now, the latest REFS shows a 20-30% chance for reflectivity values to exceed 40 dBZ. Thus, think the most likely scenario for tomorrow is for elevated showers and weak storms push through the majority of the area. The exception will be portions of northwest Iowa, generally near and south/southeast of highway-60 where a pre-frontal trough where enough surface heating could result in a few severe storms during the afternoon timeframe. Will keep an eye on this potential. Any chance for strong to severe storms will come to an end during the evening hours as the surface boundary and pre-frontal trough push southeast of the area. Thursday looks to be a pleasant Summer day as high temperatures warm to the 80s and winds stay light out of the north/northeast. High temperatures look to warm to 80s while humidity values remain modest. There looks to be enough instability to develop a few showers to an isolated thunderstorm. Any storm that does develop is not expected to be strong to severe as vertical shear profiles will be weak. As of now, only have a 20-40% chance for these showers to weak storms to develop. Chances for rain will be trending downwards into the evening hours as the boundary layer stabilizes. Friday will see continued near seasonable temperatures with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Highs will begin to warm as an upper level ridge begins to build on Saturday. Highs will warm a bit more to the mid 80s to mid 90s Saturday afternoon. The ridge looks to build up over the Rocky Mountains on Sunday before quickly translating to over the Northern Plains by early next week. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance places the peak of the ridge up to 597 to 600 dam. This will result in much hotter temperatures returning to the area with high temperatures into the 90s to potentially the low 100s. The ensembles support this as they show a broad 40-100% chance for high temperatures to exceed 90F and a 40-70% chance for highs to break 100F. The highest probabilities lie across central South Dakota. With the center of the ridge places directly over the Northern Plains, the upper level jet and associated gradients will be north of the area. This looks to leave mostly dry and hot conditions Sunday through Tuesday at this time. Humid conditions will accompany the heat so heat headlines will be possible. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are forming along a quasi-stationary boundary over central South Dakota. These are expected to slowly move southeast through the region tonight. Some storms could be strong to severe producing large hail, heavy rain, and wind gusts to 60 kts. Southerly winds will become breezy and variable as the front moves through. Behind the front winds will be northerly and light. Isolated to scattered storms may continue through much of the day over eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. VFR conditions are expected to prevail except for areas under storms. Ceilings and visibility may decrease to MVFR and briefly IFR under the strongest storms. By Wednesday afternoon another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the same slow moving boundary. This time focused over northeast Nebraska, extreme southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Risks will be large hail, heavy rainfall, and gusts to 50 kts. Storms look to push southeast of the region by the end of the end of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AJP DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...AJP  814 FXUS63 KSGF 080540 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20-50% chance of isolated to scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms along and south of I-44 this afternoon with even lesser chances Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds to 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms. Most stay dry. - Rain chances increase to 40-70% Thursday night through Saturday. Marginal risk for severe storms Thursday night. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall Thursday through the weekend. - Highs in the 80s today and Tuesday, returning into the 90s midweek. Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis show a compact upper level low has shifted into northeast Arkansas. Afternoon temps in the 80s and dews in the 60s to around 70 have created an environment of ML CAPEs approaching 2000j/kg. Convective temps around 79 on the morning sounding have been reached and the cumulus field has since blossomed with isolated showers and storms developing over south central Missouri. Isolated Storm Chances This Afternoon: Highest chances for storms this afternoon will likely be southeast of Interstate 44, closer to the lift from the upper low. Looking at the pulse severe potential, the main limiting factors seems to be weak 0-3km theta e diffs and slightly lower RH above 600mb, however like previous days, we could still see a few stronger cells producing downburst winds around 50mph, lightning and brief heavy rainfall as storm motions will be slow and erratic. Many locations will stay dry. Storm coverage will likely decrease after sunset given loss of daytime heating and the exit of the upper low. There is a low chance for some patchy fog overnight again however not seeing a signal for anything dense or overly widespread at this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Wednesday: Ensembles suggest that the upper low will continue to slowly move even further away on Wednesday. Rain chances look to be less than 20 percent across south central Missouri. Warmer air will begin to advect in with highs in the 80s however a few locations west of Springfield may reach 90. Rain Chances Thursday into the Weekend: Ensembles continue to suggest that an upper ridge will attempt to build across the western US however pieces of energy will attempt to move into the area beginning Thursday and continuing off and on into the weekend. Increasing moisture and lift will allow for rain chances to increase across the area however details remain uncertain and will likely only be better resolved once we get into the mesoscale range (24-48hrs before event). There does look to be a signal for an MCS to develop across the plains Wednesday night. This is mainly on the nose of a strengthening low level jet. The exact track of the MCS is uncertain but most guidance takes it into central Missouri during the day Thursday and weakens it. We will need to monitor for any boundaries that could fire off additional storms during the day however confidence is low. There is currently a marginal risk for severe storms across the northern half of the area if storms can re-fire during the afternoon and evening. Additional energy then slides down into the area on Friday and Saturday which will provide more focus for storms however this type of pattern has a low predictability in exact timing and chances given that the preceding days storms will affect the thermo environment of the day before. Currently rain chances are in the 40-70% range Friday night through Saturday however this will likely change with future updates. The WPC continues to highlight a marginal risk for excessive rainfall during this entire time frame. Latest NBM probs for 1 inch or more of rainfall has increased into the 30-50% range which suggests an increasing trend for at least one MCS to traverse the area during this time frame. Ensemble cluster analysis then shows a further south trend with precip chances/amounts Sunday onward. Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday: Precip chances will highly impact temps/heat these two days however the latest NWS Heat Risk tool shows the area in the moderate category with even some pockets of major heat risk. This is likely due to temps in the low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 70s. There is the potential for heat indicies to reach 100 however its highly dependent on clouds. Main message is to expect an increase in the heat in this timeframe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Flight conditions overnight will be VFR at the regions TAF sites with clear skies and generally light and variable surface winds. Some patchy fog could be possible again in valleys across the eastern Ozarks tonight into early morning. There is a low chance for some brief MVFR visibilities at the KBBG site around sunrise and across portions of the eastern Ozarks. Additional diurnal afternoon isolated to scattered cloud cover will again develop Wednesday afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Hatch  805 FXUS64 KHUN 080540 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the lower 90s each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Shower/storm activity from earlier this evening has dwindled in coverage and intensity, with just a lone shower moving across the NW AL landscape as of 10 PM. With the nocturnal inversion now in place and limited forcing, little to no shower activity is expected for the overnight. Areas that received heavier rainfall earlier today would be most prone to any fog development, along with the patchy fog that may typically occur in the narrow valleys of NE AL. That would include especially southern portions of Cullman County. A mid/upr closed low centered over the Mid-Miss Valley region will transform into more of an open wave and become increasingly sheared as it moves to the NE on Wednesday. Dynamic lift on its SE flank may once again help to trigger isolated to scattered areas of showers/storms. It is still difficult to forecast which areas may be more favored for convection tomorrow. One might reasonably suspect areas closer to the parent upr low. However, convergent low-level flow evident in streamline analyses (albeit weak) appears favored in southern portions of the area, which is collocated with a more favorable thermodynamic environment. Thus, the argument could be made for slightly higher POPs in southern areas. Apart from these other forcing mechanisms, convection will tend to be the result of differential sfc heating and outflow boundaries. The latest guidance suite suggests perhaps a weaker thermodynamic profile for Wednesday (than Tuesday), although some strong updrafts and thus downdrafts could occur capable of producing strong winds, but the threat for severe weather appears to be very small. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 On Thursday the sheared tendrils of mid/upr vorticity following the parent upr low/wave will cross the area, aiding in the the potential for shower/storm development once again. This would probably be favored in eastern areas per the guidance suite. POPs are thus a little higher there during peak heating in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, mean mid/upr-lvl flow will become more zonal in nature in the TN/OH Valleys amidst an increase in upr westerly flow in the southern branch of a split-flow jet. This will help to enhance shower/storm development to our north with the potential for outflows leading to further convection in our area. This actually goes for both Thursday and Friday. Thermodynamic profiles look downburst"y" both days, with steep low-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture, and high vertical theta-e differences present. Currently, we're just outlooked for "general" thunderstorm activity, which may be owing partly to the coverage expected, however, this may need to be watched over the coming days. Outside of any thick clouds and shower/storm presence, conditions will continue to feel summer-like with heat indices still pushing 100 degrees both days. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures will be near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much of a threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration. Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may also result in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next few hours; however, guidance indicates that lower VIS and CIGs (down to IFR/LIFR) will again occur later tonight through early this morning due to fog and/or low stratus development. Have included this in in the TAFs for both terminals by 10/11Z. Expecting these conditions to erode through 13Z or so, with VFR returning for mid to late morning. Then, another day of low to medium (20-50%) chances of showers and storms is forecast. There is uncertainty in exactly where and when the storms will develop and track; however, these may bring temporary reductions in VIS and CIGs as well as gusty winds and frequent lightning where they do develop. Any activity is slated to then wane through the evening hours. Outside of storms, expect calm winds at night with westerly winds around 5 knots or so during the day. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...26  933 FXUS61 KCAR 080543 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 143 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to ongoing forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wildfire smoke will remain over the area today leading to milky skies, in areas not overrun by high clouds. Small chance in smoke mixing down toward the surface on Thursday afternoon over the north. 2) Increasing heat and humidity today through late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wildfire smoke will remain over the area today leading to milky skies, in areas not overrun by high clouds. Small chance in smoke mixing down toward the surface on Thursday afternoon over the north. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Wildfires across Western Quebec will continue to be trapped over the area today per the latest HRRR smoke guidance. A milky appearance to the sky will be present across the north and west this morning and should be able to be seen over southern areas this afternoon as low- mid clouds move east and out of the area. Fortunately the smoke will remain aloft today, but there are some indications that it may begin to mix down tomorrow afternoon with pre-frontal trough moving through the north per 00z HRRR and RRFS. KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity today through late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Temperatures will climb to above normal today with highs in the mid- upper 80s across the north this afternoon. Southern areas will be able to reach into the low-mid 80s but will be delayed in warming with low clouds and fog expected early this morning. Mostly sunny skies expected across the north this morning (albeit a little smokey) with skies becoming mostly sunny this afternoon over Downeast as low pressure moves east. A pre-frontal trough will be approaching the area tonight from Canada with dewpoints rising into the 60s ahead of it. Expect an area of showers to move into the north and west during the evening with the main energy forcing heading twd the Maritimes shortly after midnight, with a break in the showers overnight into the late morning hours. By this time, the trough should be over central areas with showers re-developing over the Central Highlands as next piece of upper level energy moves in. Given marginal instability present along the trough, cannot rule out thunderstorms by mid-late afternoon. It looks like the greater threat of storms on Friday, will be from Bangor to the coast. It's possible the front will move through fast enough to where any storms are south of the area Friday. Cannot rule out a strong storm for Thursday or Friday, however the bigger threat looks to be locally heavy rainfall out of any storm that develops. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12z...VFR Aroostook terminals. Cannot rule out IFR vsbys and cigs at BHB between 08z-11z with BGR experiencing IFR cigs after 08z. Light and variable, near calm winds. Today...VFR. Light winds becoming S 5kts in the afternoon. Tonight...Mainly VFR, though cannot rule out patchy coastal fog at BHB. S winds 5kts or less. Thursday...VFR/MVFR possible in showers and possible -tsra. W winds 5-10kts. Thursday Night-Friday...VFR/MVFR in showers and tstms. W winds 5kts becoming NW 5-15kts Friday morning. Friday Night-Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts, gusts to 20 kt. Saturday Night-Sunday...VFR. N-NW winds around 5kt. && .MARINE... Visibilities reduced in patchy fog this morning. Seas will remain below 5ft over all waters, with wind gusts remaining below 25kts all waters through Thursday. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the waters Thursday night into Friday. Winds/seas below SCA conditions this weekend with just some passing clouds. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/JMM AVIATION...21/JMM  909 FXUS64 KBMX 080542 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1241 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 - Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for much of the upcoming week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. - Pattern Change Next Week: A very strong and elongated ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over the center of the U.S. by next week. As a result, confidence is increasing for above-average temperatures by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026 The region remains influenced by a weak mid-level closed low situated over the Central Mississippi River Valley, which continues to provide synoptic lift. This system, interacting with remnant outflow boundaries, will drive the increase in scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area. While activity is expected to peak during the afternoon, particularly across northern counties, some storms may persist into the overnight hours over the next 48 hours. Expected hazards include frequent lightning, heavy tropical downpours, and gusty winds of 20- 30 mph. Persistent hot and humid conditions will continue to impact the area, keeping afternoon highs in the low to mid-90s and heat indices at or above 100 degrees, consistent with the broader pattern of dangerous heat persisting across the Southeast. The closed low will gradually drift northeastward and weaken, leading to a decrease in overall forcing and storm coverage. By Friday, rain chances will decrease and become confined primarily to the eastern portion of the area, returning to the typical isolated to scattered, diurnally driven convective regime. Heat indices will also increase by Friday into Saturday with readings possibly reaching 105 degrees, which may approach or meet Heat Advisory criteria. A pattern shift begins on Sunday as an anomalous 500 mb ridge expands across the CONUS, eventually pushing a rare July surface front southward into the area. This boundary, in tandem with mid- level shortwave impulses embedded in northwesterly flow, is forecast to trigger widespread shower and storm development for both Sunday and Monday, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds remaining the primary concerns. By the middle of next week, model confidence decreases due to differences between deterministic and ensemble guidance, though confidence is increasing for above- average temperatures across the region. 16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 Isolated thunderstorms are moving towards and around KMGM through the next few hours, with a TEMPO in for impacts at KMGM site. Otherwise, enough low level moisture could cause fog development for a couple of hours in the early morning. Diurnal convection will be possible through the afternoon Wednesday, with the greatest chances at all TAF sites except KMGM and KAUO. Left mention of shower or thunder out of these two TAF sites for now due to uncertainty and low confidence in any convection moving over the TAF site. NOTE: Added AMD NOT SKED for TCL for a communication issue this afternoon. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week. Thunderstorms will also remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain little to none for most of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 72 91 72 / 50 40 50 30 Anniston 91 73 90 73 / 40 30 50 30 Birmingham 92 74 92 74 / 40 30 50 20 Tuscaloosa 91 73 92 74 / 40 20 40 20 Calera 94 73 94 74 / 40 20 50 20 Auburn 91 74 91 74 / 20 20 40 20 Montgomery 94 75 93 75 / 20 20 50 20 Troy 93 74 92 74 / 20 20 40 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...24  135 FXUS62 KFFC 080546 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 146 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered (15-30%) showers and thunderstorms possible each evening, increasing through the weekend. A few storms may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph. - Low chances (15-25%) for daily afternoon thunderstorms and warm temperatures remain the main forecast highlights through this week. - Heat index values peak each afternoon between 95 and 105. Heat advisory for portions of Southeast GA on Wednesday && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Typical summertime pattern in store the next 48 hours with lower than climo pop chances, despite there being a mid and upper level low situated over the TN Valley and GA sitting in a what should be a good location for higher coverage. The lower coverage can largely be attributed to the warmer values in the mid levels with 500 and 700mb temps running around the 90th percentile combined with lower than average mid level dewpoints. Regardless, a few isolated shower and TS will be possible coinciding with max heating in the late afternoon and early eve today and again on Wednesday. With a slight SW flow aloft across the area on Wednesday, will be looking for pockets of mid and upper level moisture rotating northeast around the subtropical ridge which could help locally enhance shower and TS coverage. Otherwise, the random isolated to scattered development is in store. On the temp side, have issued a Heat Advisory for portions of Middle GA for Wednesday. Max temps are slightly higher on Wednesday in combination with a slight increase in Td values bring HI values up to as high as 108. As a result, have included many of the counties that reach 104 to 108 across that region. Peaking ahead to Thursday, and a Heat Advisory may be needed again for a similar location. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Afternoon thunderstorms will continue to linger in the long term, and their chances will slowly increase through the second half of the work week as a stationary front slides down across the southeast. This should provide the region with a source of lift and as a result storms will increase in coverage from scattered chances to likely especially across the northern part of the state on Friday. The approaching front and afternoon convection should bring us some relief from the heat though. Highs in the low to mid 90s with apparent temps in the triple digits will continue through Saturday before falling back into the 80s by the end of the weekend. The one saving grace here is that as storms become more numerous in the afternoon, radiation cooling will help prevent a number of sites across the CWA from seeing peak heat during the afternoon and temps may not rise as high as they would without them. Widespread severe weather isn't too much of a concern later this week, though plenty of instability will mean that at least a few storms will likely over achieve. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Some SCT high clouds streaming across the area but mainly CLR skies this morning. Ceilings and VSBYs should stay VFR except in and around any afternoon convection. With a bit drier airmass across the region, Diurnally driven convection should be very isolated so have decided to keep precip out of the TAF sites Today. Winds are light and variable this morning but will see winds increase into the 3-8kt range out of the W to SW just after sunrise. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 94 74 94 / 10 20 20 30 Atlanta 75 92 75 92 / 10 30 30 40 Blairsville 66 84 66 85 / 10 40 20 60 Cartersville 73 91 73 92 / 20 30 30 50 Columbus 75 93 75 93 / 10 30 20 20 Gainesville 73 91 73 92 / 10 20 20 20 Macon 75 94 75 94 / 0 20 10 20 Rome 72 91 72 91 / 20 40 20 50 Peachtree City 73 91 73 91 / 10 30 20 30 Vidalia 77 98 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ074-084>086-096>098-104>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...01  189 FXUS63 KABR 080547 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1247 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms (level 2 out of 5) is in place today. All severe threats, including wind of 60 to 75 miles per hour, hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter, and tornadoes will be possible. - There is also a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding (a level 2 of 4 threat) in place over much of the area today. The greatest chances for excessive rainfall will be over north central and northeast SD as well as western MN. These areas have already received 1-3 inches of rain from this morning's storms. These areas are expected to see an additional 1-2" of rain at least, with the heaviest rain expected in the evening. Areas that see multiple round of storms may see as much as 2-4" of rain in total. - A slight cooldown is expected Wednesday through at least Thursday, with widespread near-normal to just below normal high temperatures (low to mid 80s). Signs point to a warming trend beginning by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs. Also, allowed Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 to expire at midnight local time, but did reposition the Flood Watch from north central SD over to northeast SD into west central MN, valid until 5 AM CDT, to cover ongoing (and any future developing) heavy rain-producing thunderstorms there. UPDATE Issued at 731 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 was expanded across north central SD eastward into the James River valley to account for elevated convection across northern SD capable of producing hail. Best instability remains further south over the CWA and have seen convection trying to form west of Pierre. Have been adjusting PoPs this evening to account for radar trends. Will be watching the northern CWA for flooding potential as well, especially for those areas just north of Hwy 12 who received heavy rainfall earlier this morning. Aviation discussion has also been update below for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 As of about 12:30 PM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the low 80s with winds out of the north behind the front and out of the southeast ahead of the front. This front will once again be the focus for storm development late this afternoon into the evening hours. The storms from this morning have moved out of the forecast area, leaving behind some rainfall totals between 1.5 and 2 inches, localized up to 3 inches. This will play a role in flooding potential later this afternoon and evening. A low pressure system starts to move into southwest SD today with a nose moving into south central SD. Storms will start to form in this area of low pressure and along the front in central SD around 5 to 7 PM. The environment lacks low level shear but surface to 1 km SRH from the RAP is pretty good along the front. This will be supportive of tornadoes. Lapse rates are around 7-7.5 C/km and there is plenty of CAPE to support supercells with large hail 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60-75 mph. SPC has highlighted the forecast area in slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather with a 2% tornado risk along and around the front. The HREF shows storm motion in generally a southwesterly direction at 5 to 10 kts, so very slow. This, combined with PWAT values of 1.5 to 2 inches will increase chances of flooding, especially in east/northeast SD. There is potential for storms to become more linear and transition into a MCS with an increased chance for damaging winds.Storms are expected to last into the morning hours of Wednesday. The next big story of the forecast is a ridge that moves into our area from the west this weekend into next week. This will result in several days of hot weather. Highs Sunday through Tuesday are expected to be 10-20 degrees above average for this time of year with heat index values near or exceeding 100 degrees. This will put HeatRisk into the moderate to major categories, with portions of central and northeast SD reaching the extreme category both Monday and Tuesday. This will affect anyone. Make sure to keep a look out for signs of heat related illnesses, especially with outdoor events. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Areas of TSRA/+TSRA across northeast SD into west central MN early this morning will be affecting KABR/KATY for the first couple of hours of the TAF valid period. MVFR/IFR vsbys can be expected with the heavy rain-producing thunderstorms there. KABR is dealing with a comms issue, but in house real-time data should permit for amendments to KABR TAF. KMBG comms have also gone down, and will be carrying AMD NOT SKED on that TAF. MVFR/IFR CIGs are forecast to develop/increase across the region by morning and persist for, at least, the first half of the day before there is any potential of VFR conditions returning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for SDZ006>008- 011-021. MN...Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT early this morning for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...10  147 FXUS63 KMPX 080545 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch for heavy rain and flash flood potential due to training thunderstorms tonight across central MN. - Isolated to scattered severe storms expected for west-central MN south of the heaviest rainfall. - Heavy rain and severe weather risk shift to eastern MN and western WI for Wednesday. - Drier and much warmer pattern expected this weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Tonight into Wednesday... The primary forecast concern continues to be the potential for very heavy rain amounts and localized flash flooding tonight across central Minnesota. There are several factors that point towards this being a prime environment for flooding; favorable soundings with long and skinny CAPE profiles, warm cloud layer depth over 12k ft, PWATs within the 99th percentile for early July, and relatively slow cloud layer winds parallel to the boundary. The one caveat is that many of the hi-res models have struggled to capture the morning convection that tracked across eastern SoDak and western Minnesota. While these storms may end up limiting storm development later today, the more likely impact is that we see the stationary boundary set up further south than what the model consensus has been up to this point. In fact, you are already beginning to see that shift with the some of the latest 18z model runs (including the HRRR and RRFS). Wherever this boundary officially sets up, will be the axis for the highest rain amounts overnight. As the LLJ increases tonight, efficient moisture advection and lift will occur on the nose of the jet (near the stationary boundary). As storms go up along the boundary, they will push east, leaving space for more storms to build behind them. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" are expected, with localized amounts of 4 or more inches possible within this zone of training storms. The HREF ensemble max amounts peak around 5-6". A Flood Watch has been issued to highlight this potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to training thunderstorms across central MN overnight. The convection this morning and afternoon should limit the overall severe threat tonight, or at the very least keep the majority of it south of I-94 withing the moist/unstable warm sector. The greatest severe threat would be damaging winds and large hail, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out given low LCLs. The boundary shifts south tomorrow, shifting the heavy rain and severe weather risk with it as well. This will put eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin under the main risks, with severe wind and hail the main threats. Depending on how far south the boundary sets up, southeast MN may be looking at a higher risk for any flooding given the recent heavy rain across the region just a few days ago. A Flood Watch is not as likely tomorrow, though it a short fused alert may be leveraged if needed. Thursday into Next Week... Any lingering rain should be mostly wrapped by Thursday, bringing us to a stretch of drier weather with upper level heights building overhead. There continues to be a strong signal for prolonged heat. Humidity is expected to be not as dramatic as our previous stint of heat, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will be the main talking point after getting past our active weather tonight and tomorrow. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Broad swath of rain with embedded thunderstorms has started making its way ESE over central MN. Fairly high confidence that all TAF sites north of RWF-MKT will see a combination of RA/TSRA for multiple periods during the first half of this TAF period, with conditions likely into MVFR and possibly IFR. After this morning round of convection, there is a chance of an additional round of RA/TSRA mid-to-late afternoon Wednesday, mainly for southern- eastern MN into western WI. The earlier timeframe has the better confidence, thus have used TEMPO for the earlier timeframe then transitioned to PROB30s for the later timeframe. Winds will also be tricky with the surface front responsible for the precipitation sitting across MN/WI throughout this TAF period. Speeds under 10kt expected throughout but the directions may run variable from time to time, and winds may have sharp directional changes along with brief increases in speed near and within TSRA. KMSP...VFR to start with passing high clouds at initialization. First window for RA/TSRA looks to come a few hours prior to and then through sunrise (thus potentially impacting morning push traffic). Currently have conditions within MVFR but IFR conditions due to visibility in heavier rain and/or low ceilings cannot be ruled out. Clouds then remain in place throughout the day with some uncertainty as to whether an additional round of convection develops early-mid afternoon. Currently have that second/later round as a PROB30 and will need to see how models evolve that round. But, TSRA still viable in that afternoon round so have kept its mention there as well. Winds will remain under 10kts outside of convection, so it becomes a matter of quick directional changes with the surface front atop the area and convection outflows making for short-duration changes. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI-SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Douglas-Pope- Stearns-Stevens-Todd. Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Kanabec- Mille Lacs-Morrison. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...JPC  245 FXUS64 KMOB 080549 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. - A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper trough extending from the lower Great Lakes to east Texas has an embedded cutoff low centered over the confluence of Ohio and Mississippi rivers visible on water vapor imagery. This trough will lift northeastward and diminish through Thursday morning as it gets caught up in increasingly westerlies. An upper ridge over Florida, a small portion of the southeast states, and the eastern Gulf will persist into the weekend as a series of weak shortwaves pass over the Ohio River region. The upper ridge will get nudged westward over the weekend as a stronger shortwave dives southeastward from the Ohio River to the eastern seaboard with a large upper high building over the central U.S. putting our region under northwest flow aloft. A weak surface low is expected to develop offshore on Monday under the trough and send a backdoor surface cool front into the region late Monday night. The diurnal pattern continues through the near term with isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each day as a seabreeze pushes inland and dissipates through mid- evening. Rain chances will increase to 30-50% on Saturday, followed by scattered to numerous coverage on Sunday and numerous to widespread coverage on Monday. As with all summertime convection, instances of stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty surface winds and locally heavy downpours can be expected. High temperatures the rest of the week will average just above normal, with lows about 4 to 9 degrees above normal. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 72 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with isolated short-duration instances as high as 110 degrees. /22 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period at area TAF sites. Brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities can be expected in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and early evening hours. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southwest to west flow will prevail through late week, becoming southerly Friday into the weekend. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet by the weekend. Expect winds and seas to be higher in and around storms. SS/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 95 76 93 76 / 20 10 30 0 Pensacola 95 80 93 81 / 20 10 30 10 Destin 93 82 92 82 / 20 10 30 10 Evergreen 93 74 93 73 / 10 20 40 10 Waynesboro 94 74 93 73 / 20 20 40 10 Camden 91 74 90 74 / 10 20 40 10 Crestview 96 76 93 75 / 30 10 40 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  223 FXUS64 KSJT 080548 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1248 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and dry conditions return for today though Friday with afternoon highs near or above the 100 degree mark. - Low to medium (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions today with temperatures around or slightly above normal. Highs will be in the 90s across much of the area and around 100 across the northwest Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Upper level ridging over our area will result in hot and dry conditions through the beginning of the weekend. Highs will be in the mid 90s to near 102 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. A weakness aloft develops on Sunday and Monday as the primary upper ridge shifts northward of the region. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures for the beginning of the week. In addition, models indicate an upper level trough setting up which would lead to increasing chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The winds will be from the south and a little gusty Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 97 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 92 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 95 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...21  237 FXUS66 KPQR 080549 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1049 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow and varying degrees of morning cloud cover will bring seasonable temperatures July 8-12 along with continued dry weather, aside from a 10-15% chance of light rain or drizzle in Pacific and Clatsop counties on Friday. Temperatures trend warmer July 13-14 as upper level flow becomes southwesterly upstream of an amplifying upper level ridge over the central U.S. && .DISCUSSION...Tuesday night through Monday night...The forecast is highlighted by persistent onshore flow, seasonable temperatures, and continued dry weather aside from a 10-15% chance of light rain or drizzle in Pacific and Clatsop counties on Friday. Model ensemble guidance is in good agreement for an extended period of near zonal flow aloft from Tuesday night through at least Thursday night. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly late Friday into the weekend. At the surface, onshore flow is expected to persist each day. This typical summer-time weather pattern will bring temperatures that are close to average for this time of year, along with varying degrees of morning cloud cover and plenty of afternoon sun. Total model spread for temperatures Wednesday through Friday is very narrow, suggesting confidence is high in regards to the temperature forecast. Expect highs ranging between 77-83 degrees Thursday and Friday for inland valleys, coolest over the Cowlitz Valley and lower Columbia and warmest over the Willamette Valley, Portland metro, Columbia River Gorge, and Upper Hood River Valley. Expect highs in the 60s for the coast and high Cascades. Morning lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s are expected both inland and at the coast. As such, HeatRisk will stay in the Minor category. It is also worth mentioning a decaying cool front will bring a 10-15% chance of light rain or drizzle over Pacific and Clatsop counties on Friday, especially in the morning when forecast soundings depict saturated conditions in the lowest 0.75-1.0 km of the atmosphere. No impacts would occur with this precipitation if it does occur, with total rain amounts of only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Model spread for temperatures begins to increase slightly over the weekend for inland valleys, with highs ranging anywhere from the mid 70s to mid 80s. The outcome will be highly dependent on how widespread morning cloud cover is and how early in the day cloud cover is able to scatter out. The current forecast favors more widespread and persistent cloud cover on Saturday when compared to Sunday, and the deterministic NBM reflects this by keeping highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees on Saturday versus low to mid 80s on Sunday. Beyond the weekend, confidence is high temperatures will begin to warm early next week with less cloud cover. This warming trend is in response to increasing 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures upstream of an amplifying upper level ridge over the central United States. Since the ridge axis will be located east of the Rocky Mountains and far removed from the Pacific Northwest, extreme heat is not expected. Instead, a more modest warm-up is likely with high temperatures most likely peaking somewhere in the mid to upper 80s for inland valleys. Meanwhile, the coast will remain cooler with highs staying in the 60s. There is a 15-35% chance for highs of 90 degrees or warmer across the Willamette Valley, Portland/Vancouver metro, Columbia River Gorge, and Upper Hood River Valley on Monday. Chances for highs above 95 degrees are under 10%, which further backs up the expectation that extreme heat is not expected. Nevertheless, the slight warm-up may be just enough to result in an increase from a Minor HeatRisk to a Moderate HeatRisk; probabilistic HeatRisk guidance suggests there is a 20-40% chance for a Moderate HeatRisk in the aforementioned areas. -23 && .AVIATION...Onshore flow will continue to support marine stratus along the coast. Coastal sites are expected to maintain sub-VFR conditions through the overnight and into Wednesday morning. Could see stratus hang on until the early afternoon but VFR conditions are expected to return by late afternoon. Guidance shows higher chances for stratus developing along the lower Columbia and into the Portland metro area early Wed morning, with around a 40-60% chance of MVFR CIGs after 10z Wed. Lower chances (20-30%) for MVFR stratus exist for the southern Willamette Valley. Northerly winds expected to weaken overnight, increasing again after 18z Wednesday to around 10 kt. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Stratus is likely to develop by 10-12z Wed morning with chances for MVFR CIGs increasing to around 60-70% after 10z Wed. Northerly winds weaken overnight, increasing again to around 10 kt after 18z. -19/DH && .MARINE...High pressure will maintain north to northwesterly winds across the coastal waters through the week. A weak cold front near Vancouver Island will dissipate later this evening as winds generally remain 15 kt or less through Wednesday morning. Pressure gradients tighten across the waters later Wed afternoon as northerlies increase with gusts to at least 20 kt south of Cape Falcon through Wed night. There is around a 40-50% chance for wind gusts up to 25 kt south of Cape Foulweather, so will continue to monitor forecast trends to determine if a Small Craft Advisory is needed for the coastal waters off the central Oregon coast. Latest guidance suggests similar conditions continue into Thursday with winds easing on Friday as another weak front approaches the waters. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  258 FXUS63 KLMK 080550 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds this afternoon and evening, and again on Wednesday afternoon and evening. * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Cutoff low continues to meander near the Mississippi and Ohio River confluence, and the associated PWAT airmass is up around 2" through the column. Scattered showers and storms have developed in this moist and moderately unstable (2000 J/KG of ML CAPE) airmass, however there isn't a lot of deep layer shear as has been the case the past several days. The end result continues to be slow-moving heavy rain producers that develop on remnant outflow from previous storms, and the collapse rather quickly. Basin average QPF amounts won't be all that impressive, however localized amounts close to 2 inches are possible in fairly short periods of time. A few Flash Flood instances may arise, and scattered Flood Advisories seem probable through the diurnal peak late afternoon through the evening. Convection is expected to diminish later this evening with a quiet overnight in store. There will likely be patchy fog development once again, especially in area that see swaths of heavier rain today. After highs in the mid to upper 80s today, mild low temps only in the upper 60s and low 70s are expected tonight. The pesky closed upper low will start to get picked up by the prevailing westerlies tomorrow, and will likely transition to an open shortwave as it slowly slides through the area. The morning will likely start off quiet, however initiation of scattered showers and storms is expected by late morning into the afternoon once convective temps are reached. Another rinse/repeat day with diurnally driven slow-moving showers and storms capable of locally heavy rainfall. A few Flash Flood Warnings and/or a handful of Flood Advisories continue to be likely. Temps will be similar to today in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Thursday - Sunday... The closed upper low that had plagued the area through mid week will finally get picked up by the prevailing westerlies by Thursday. This feature will move east as an open wave, with more of a subsident airmass in place behind the departing trough axis. As a result, we have lower chances for showers and storms, along with lighter expected rainfall amounts through the day. This could be the one day we don't get a bunch of diurnally driven pulse storms in the afternoon and evening, and more just a few lingering showers earlier in the day. Will be looking for highs in the mid to upper 80s. By Thursday night, focus will shift upstream as a shortwave embedded within the zonal flow aloft ejects toward our region. This feature is likely to trigger some sort of convective complex upstream during peak heating, and then work toward our area into the overnight. Depending on how much of a cold pool this gets going, and time of arrival it seems feasible that a wind threat could accompany any complex that survives into our area late Thursday night Friday morning. Overall, the deep layer shear profile isn't too impressive, and storms would likely be arriving during the diurnal minimum. However, all you need is a good cold pool pushing into some lingering MU CAPE, which we will likely have, and marginally sufficient deep layer shear contributing to MCS maintenance. Will carry pretty widespread pops in the late Thursday night/early Friday morning time frame. Could be some concern with localized flooding given wet antecedent conditions ahead of this wave, and PWATs potentially surging over 2" through the column with this wave. One thing that could mitigate the early flood threat, however, would be the likely progressive nature of the complex as it moves through the area. At this very least, this wave may set the stage for higher flooding concerns with the following waves expected into the weekend. A concerning setup looks to continue into the weekend as progressive zonal flow aloft persists over our area, while a slow moving surface front sinks into our region and stalls. This W-E oriented boundary will be parallel to the upper flow, and with multiple moisture-laden shortwaves riding along it, we'll expected repeated rounds of shower and storms through Saturday night. The final wave sometime Saturday into early Sunday could be the most potent, and if we have already seen multiple rounds of showers and storms we could be set up for some more concerning flood potential by this time. Ensemble plumes through the weekend show most clustering around 2-4" of rain for basin average amounts, however 07/00z deterministic runs show swaths of 4-6" across the area. Given the setup with moderate instability, periods of high PWATs near 2" through the column, and tall/skinny CAPE combined with high freezing levels (14-15K feet), think localized amounts could potentially be higher. Especially with the W-E training of multiple waves over the same area. Will be ramping up messaging today, and may have to start mentioning potential for significant localized flooding as a possibility through the weekend. Will mention one scenario that could help us dodge a round or two through the weekend. If we can get one of the upstream MCS to really blast through our region, it could potentially set up the convectively reinforced boundary farther south. Of course, we would likely have to pay the price with a higher damaging wind threat if that did happen, so I guess it could be a "pick your poison" type of deal. Sunday Night - Tuesday... Interesting pattern change as we go into early next week. Strong upper riding characterized by H5 heights around 600 dam will build into the central CONUS, with eastern fringes of influence into our area. This should bring us into a drier/warmer pattern with the previous frontal boundary sinking well south. The setup transitions to a Rex Block pattern through at least mid week, and should give us some relief from the relentless rain for a little bit, however at the expense of increasing temps back toward the 90s. This will be a notable change after weekend temps more in the lower and mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 146 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The trend from the last few days continues with lots of moisture at the surface. Areas that saw rain showers earlier in the day are more likely to see fog tonight, but there is a decent amount of cloud cover that will limit cooling, limiting fog development to some degree. Parts of the region, mainly southern and eastern Kentucky, could see fog drop visibilities into IFR levels. This could happen at LEX, BWG, and RGA. More optimistic at SDF and HNB where MVFR could happen, mainly at HNB. Later in the day, more scattered slow moving showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...KDW  301 FXUS66 KOTX 080551 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1051 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical Fire Weather: Red Flag Warnings in effect Tuesday and Wednesday due to a combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity. - Thunderstorm Potential: Slight (10 to 20 percent) chance for high- based showers and thunderstorms across Eastern WA and North ID Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Critical fire weather conditions will continue for Central Washington Tuesday evening and expand across Eastern WA Wednesday afternoon and evening as a dry cold front tracks through the region. The front will bring a low (10 to 20 percent) chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms over Eastern WA and North ID Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will decrease slightly but remain breezy Thursday and Friday, keeping fire weather conditions elevated through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday evening through Wednesday: Relative humidity has fallen into the teens across much of the region as of Tuesday afternoon with poor recoveries expected Tuesday night. Gusty southwest winds will persist Tuesday afternoon and evening across the western Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley, and west winds will increase Tuesday evening along the Cascade foothills Thursday evening as a dry cold front approaches. Consequently, Red Flag Warnings are in effect through 10 PM Tuesday for the Moses Lake and Wenatchee areas northward up the Okanogan Valley. The cold front will crawl inland overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, bringing slight cooling and a shift into zonal flow. Winds will remain breezy across Central WA Tuesday night before strengthening and expanding across the rest of Eastern WA and North ID Wednesday. A second round of Red Flag warnings have been issued for Wednesday across these zones where fuels have been declared dry enough to support fire weather highlights. Widespread westerly gusts of 25-30 mph will spread over the Columbia Basin, Palouse, Spokane area, Northeast WA, and North ID. The windiest spots near Cascade gaps and over exposed areas of the Basin will see gusts up to 30-40 mph. While not exceptionally strong, these winds will meet critical thresholds for fire weather concerns. Ahead of the front, mid-level moisture moving up from Oregon will create enough instability to bring low (but nonzero) chances for elevated convection. A few hi-res models continue to depict isolated thunderstorms tracking from southwest to northeast across the Cascade Crest, over the eastern third of WA, and over North ID late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Any precip generated with these storms will have to fall through a large layer of dry air before reaching the surface. Thus, most if not all precip will likely evaporate before hitting the ground. Confidence is low in there being enough lift to trigger storms, but given the dry boundary layer and critical fire weather conditions expected for Wednesday, any lightning strikes would pose a fire hazard. The current forecast carries a 10 to 15 percent chance of sprinkles and a 5 to 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. Behind the front, precipitable water values fall back to 60 to 80 percent of normal, keeping humidity levels low despite slightly cooler temperatures. The Cascades and east slopes will be the exception, where a deep marine layer spilling over from the west side will keep humidities higher (25 to 35 percent). Thursday through Saturday: Elevated west-southwest winds persist Thursday under continued zonal flow. While winds speeds will be lighter than those on Wednesday, widespread breezy conditions with gusts of 20 to 25 mph will maintain elevated fire weather concerns. Friday will see similar wind speeds and gusts out of the west-southwest. By Saturday, there is growing confidence that the next trough will shift into the region, bringing another round of gusty winds. The latest NBM indicates a 40 to 70 percent chance of sustained wind speeds exceeding 20 mph across Central WA. Chances climb as high as 80 percent down the Okanogan Valley. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected at all terminals throughout the forecast period. Winds have currently relaxed at every TAF site but EAT, where they will continue being elevated overnight. A cold front will move through the forecast area tomorrow morning, increasing winds around 15-18Z for many of the TAF sites. Wind gusts will be 20-25kts, and EAT has the best chance at seeing 25-30kt wind gusts. Aside from EAT and MWH which will stay breezy through 06Z tomorrow, winds will relax around 01-03Z. There is a low chance of sprinkles (10-15%) and dry thunderstorms (5%) between 06z and 18z with this front, though confidence remains too low to mention in the TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. Low confidence for sprinkles affecting the TAF sites, very low confidence in thunderstorm chances. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 62 88 56 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 62 87 57 84 56 85 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 57 83 51 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 64 92 60 90 59 93 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 57 89 53 86 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 61 87 56 84 57 86 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 59 84 56 81 54 84 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 60 91 54 90 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 66 87 60 88 61 88 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 62 92 55 91 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin - Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705). ID...None. && $$  334 FXUS62 KMLB 080551 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 151 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2206 - Scattered showers and lightning storms continue this afternoon and evening, becoming locally numerous in coverage along the sea breeze collision. A few strong storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, localized wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and heavy rainfall. - Drier air begins to build mid to late week, reducing rain chances Wednesday and especially on Thursday. - A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, please visit heat.gov. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2206 Current-Wednesday... Highest afternoon/evening rain chances continue across the eastern peninsula with late day sea breeze/boundary collisions. ISOLD-SCT lightning storms will develop initially along the inland moving sea breezes (east/west), with coverage and intensity (SCT-NMRS/40-60% today & 20-40% Wed) increasing late day/early evening from numerous boundary collisions. Storm steering will, again, be light out of the west bringing some storms back to the coast, though movement will be slow/erratic at times surrounding stronger collisions. A few storms locally strong with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-55 mph locally, and heavy downpours leading to minor/nuisance flooding which will be handled with Flood Advisories as necessary. Activity will diminish thru mid evening, though light debris rainfall could linger a bit. Skies gradually thinning thru the night. Max temps in the L-M90s with peak heat indices 104-107F ahead of sea breeze/precip. On Wed, we could see some U90s north of I-4. We may flirt with 108F+ over a large portion of the area on Wed and later shifts will monitor in the event a Heat Advisory is necessary. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Min temps consistent and in the 70s with conditions remaining very humid. Thu-Mon...Weak high pressure ridging continues across the central to north/central FL peninsula into the weekend. Drier air forecast Thu/Fri with arrival of Saharan Dust leading to a period of below normal rain chances. Mostly dry on Thu (5-20% - highest moisture north of I-4) and 10-50% - highest south/Okeechobee for Fri. Latest model guidance has gone higher with PoPs this weekend (20-60%), highest south of Orlando on Sat & highest north of I-4 on Sun. PoPs 30-60% on Mon with highest again north of I-4. The main weather story for this period will center around the building heat across the area. Mid-level ridging across the region will become stronger as subsidence increases and H500 temps range between -5.5C to -7.0C. This will lead to a period of above normal temperatures, especially near and north of I-4. Expect highs in the L-M90s near the coast and M-U90s into the interior - highest values near/north of I-4. A building (Widespread Major to locally Extreme) HeatRisk is expected to affect those without adequate cooling and hydration. Trends will be monitored for any potential Heat Advisories as peak heat index values may near or exceed the 108F threshold across portions of the area by late week. A mid to upper level trough digs into the southeast U.S. early next week, and temperatures gradually fall a couple/few degrees by Mon. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2206 Thru Sat...Weak high pressure ridging will lift slowly from south- central FL toward the central & north-central peninsula thru late week. This will produce generally favorable winds/seas. Expect one more day ofshowers and lightning storms potentially affecting the intracoastal and near shore waters in the late afternoon & evening, then a period of drier conditions mid to late week, though cannot rule out ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection during this time. Light SW/S flow will transition onshore each afternoon with sea breeze formation and push inland. Late aftn/evening winds may increase to 14-17 kts over the open Atlc (generally north of the Cape), but otherwise speeds AOB 15 kts. Winds and seas locally higher invof convection. Seas 1-2 ft occasionally increase to 3 ft far offshore early this week, and by Thursday seas build to more widely range 2-3 ft across the local waters (perhaps 4 ft briefly well offshore north of Cape). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers and lightning storms. TAFs begin with light and variable winds. Winds will increase from the SW at 5-10kts before backing SE at the coastal TAF sites into the afternoon and evening at 6-12kts. VCTS is forecast at KDAB after 18Z and at the Orlando Metro TAF sites after 20Z before showers and lightning storms diminish by around 01Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 77 95 77 / 30 20 20 0 MCO 96 78 97 78 / 20 20 10 0 MLB 92 78 93 78 / 20 10 0 0 VRB 92 77 93 77 / 10 10 0 0 LEE 95 79 96 80 / 20 10 10 0 SFB 96 78 97 78 / 30 30 20 0 ORL 95 79 96 79 / 30 30 20 0 FPR 92 76 92 76 / 10 10 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-164-254-259-264. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Fehling  360 FXUS64 KHGX 080553 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1253 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot conditions continue. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. - Scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Lower, but non-zero, rain chances Thursday. - A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive Thursday night and Friday. Warm, muggy conditions persist with daily chances of rain through the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mid level trof axis will remain stretched across SE TX today and Thursday. PW's around 2" closer to the coast should allow for some scattered seabreeze activity to develop as the day progresses. Slightly lower moisture availability Thursday should keep things a bit more isolated in nature. Daytime highs and heat indices will be about the same as they have been the past couple of days. Thursday night into Friday, an inverted mid level trof in the Gulf will push wwd toward and into Mexico and south Tx. In the low levels, a tighter pressure gradient will transport some deeper tropical moisture into the region. PW values between 2.1-2.4" look to hang around through the weekend into early next week setting the stage for continued chances of mainly scattered, diurnally driven activity. Overall coverage will vary on a day-to-day basis with subtle fluctuations of moisture values, clouds, and heating. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the area, especially north of I-10, through the early/mid evening hours. Maintained TEMPO groups at KUTS and KCXO through 01-02Z/8-9 PM CDT for the best potential of thunderstorms. By or just before 03Z/10 PM, precipitation should all be dissipated and VFR should prevail at all TAF sites. Patchy, light fog is anticipated to develop again near sunrise Wednesday, highest probabilities along and west of I-45. Once whatever fog that develops erodes and ceilings lift, VFR will prevail through much of the day. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop again along the seabreeze. Any heavy/strong shower or storm that moves over any terminals will cause visibilities to drop to IFR/MVFR levels. Added PROB30 groups for TSRA at most sites, generally between 18-00Z Thursday, though exact coverage and probabilities are still unknown at this time. Winds stay mostly light through the period, with light southwest surface winds in the morning veering more out of the south in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A remnant, diffuse outflow boundary from Tuesday night's storms could provide somewhat of a focus for isolated storm development early this morning in the Galveston Bay area. Otherwise, a more typical summertime pattern will persist into Thursday with the seabreeze the primary driver for iso-sct precip. Shower and storm chances increase late Thursday night and into the weekend as deeper moisture flows into the region. Best chances in the marine environment should generally be in the late night through early afternoon hours then transition inland. Onshore flow will prevail through the period. Speeds in the 10-15kt range today should slightly increase to closer to 15g20kt heading into Thursday and Friday along with a corresponding bump in the seas into the 3-4ft range. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 76 96 76 / 10 20 0 10 Houston (IAH) 97 78 96 79 / 30 20 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 82 / 20 0 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Mejia MARINE...47  333 FXUS64 KMAF 080551 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Low chance (~10%) of isolated storms this afternoon over the Big Bend and southeast New Mexico plains. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mid to upper ridging persists and amplifies today into tomorrow over the Desert SW into Intermountain West, resulting in a warming trend in temperatures as increased sinking and warming motion occurs. With the mid to upper air pattern shifting and core of ridging forecast to be farther west than previously forecast, there will be room for terrain induced disturbances riding easterly flow aloft south of the ridge to focus lift and moisture convergence over northern and southern parts of the area. As a result, PoPs will be low (less than 10%) but not zero over the SE NM plains and Big Bend, where we cannot rule out a stray shower/storm today or tomorrow. However, with PWATs remaining close to 1.00", dew point depressions remaining greater than 20F, and light south/southeast winds overlain by light east/northeast winds, rainfall accumulations are likely to remain light and the main risk remaining lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and strong winds in any stronger storms. Highs today rise into the 95F-100F range even for much of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend and remain in the 85F-90F range for higher elevations. Lows tonight fall into the 70F-75F range southern and eastern parts of the region, 65F- 70F in cooler regions, and 60F-65F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos. Tomorrow offers similar to today in terms of temperatures. However, highs rise a few degrees warmer into the triple digits along the Pecos River, on the Upper Trans Pecos, northeast Permian Basin, and along the Presidio Valley into Big Bend, and 95F-100F highs elsewhere apart from highs into the 90F-95F range higher elevations. Tomorrow night, lows similar to today but warmer can be expected. South/southeast winds prevail through the period with dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s F, mid 40s to lower 50s F basins of Culberson County into northern Guadalupes, maintaining a dry but stagnant feel to the air despite the warming trend. Increased rain chances at the end of the week into the weekend are still in the forecast. More details on this in the Long Term Discussion below. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package as warm and mainly dry conditions are expected through Saturday. This is thanks to an elongated upper ridge of high pressure over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. High temperatures are forecast to generally range from the mid 90s to lower 100s Friday afternoon. Warmer temperatures between 105 to 110 degrees are expected for areas along the Rio Grande and Pecos River. These high temperatures will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses for those outdoors for prolonged periods. Be sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and necessary precautions if outdoors! By Friday night, the ridge weakens and transitions northward into the Central Rockies. As a result, this will cool high temperatures a couple of degrees on Saturday compared to Friday. Besides the heat, surface troughing across the southern Rockies, upslope flow, and disturbances within the flow aloft creates a low chance (10-30%) of isolated storms over the Guadalupe, Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico plains, andportions of far West Texas both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Sunday, the aforementioned ridge of high pressure shifts farther northeast toward the Northern High Plains. Shortwave impulses rounding the periphery of the ridge brings upper-level moisture and ascent, thus increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms areawide Sunday through early next week. Northeasterly flow aloft and southeasterly surface winds increase cloud cover, keeping afternoon highs cooler in the low to mid 90s for most locations Sunday through Tuesday. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. Convective chances will be nil, but forecast soundings develop a cu field late Wednesday morning/early afternoon, mainly West Texas terminals, w/bases ~ 4.5-5 kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 99 72 101 73 / 0 0 10 0 Dryden 96 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 91 68 93 70 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 95 70 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 90 61 93 63 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 96 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 98 73 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...99  311 FXUS65 KFGZ 080551 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1051 PM MST Tue Jul 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue over portions of eastern and central Arizona into Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, drier conditions are expected with storms confined to mainly the White Mountains. Moisture begins to ramp up again this weekend and into next week. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon through at least Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...A ridge centered along the AZ-NM border continues to allow for favorable flow of moisture into our area, and storms are currently ongoing in eastern AZ. Storm intensity is slightly higher than yesterday, but still remains somewhat suppressed with warm air aloft. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and cloud-to- ground lightning are the primary hazards from storms. Localized downpours will also lead to a low, but nonzero chance for flash flooding over sensitive areas (burn scars). Hi-res guidance indicates potential for storms as far west as Flagstaff and the Kaibab Plateau in the late afternoon. Storms will diminish after sunset today. Similar activity can be expected tomorrow, though the ridge begins to flatten and introduce a drier westerly flow aloft. By Thursday and Friday, the flattened ridge centers to our west. This will push most of the convective activity to our south, though some storms will likely hang around the White Mountains each day. By the weekend, the ridge is forecast to strengthen and rapidly shift to our northeast. Confidence is increasing that we will enter a favorable monsoon pattern by early next week. Stay tuned for further updates on this period! Heat will also be a concern through the week. The primary concern is the lowest elevations of the Grand Canyon, where temperatures are forecast to exceed 110 degrees each day this week. Similar temperatures will be felt An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the Grand Canyon below 4000 ft through Wednesday, becoming an Extreme Heat Watch thereafter through Saturday. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 08/06Z through Thursday 09/06Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA east of KPGA-KINW through around 08Z. Another round of ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA after 18Z-20Z Wed, with the highest coverage south of a KPAN-KINW-KRQE line. Winds light and VRB overnight and then SW 10-20 kts again after 18Z Wed. Gusty/erratic wind gusts up to 35 kts possible with shower activity. OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/06Z through Saturday 11/06Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA possible SE of a KPAN-KRQE line on Thursday and Friday afternoons. Winds SW-W 10-20 kts each afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Most areas will remain hot and dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over eastern Arizona. Isolated activity developing as far west as a Flagstaff to Payson line on Wednesday, then shifting to Heber eastward on Thursday. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wetting rains. Friday through Sunday...Hot and mostly dry. Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountain region on Friday, before activity starts moving back west and north Saturday and Sunday. Expect southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph on Friday becoming lighter at 5-15 mph and more variable on Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  473 FXUS61 KAKQ 080555 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 155 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the 18z TAFS Flood watch remains in effect for the Piedmont, central and southeast Virginia, and northeast North Carolina. The watch is in effect from 3 PM to midnight. A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) remains for Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Flood Watch remains effect for the Piedmont, central and SE VA, and NE NC this afternoon and evening. Widespread slow- moving showers and thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban, poor drainage, and other flood prone areas. Storms could potentially approach severe levels with damaging winds the primary threat. 2) Near-normal temperatures are expected for most of this week. Additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms added for Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A Flood Watch remains effect for the Piedmont, central and SE VA, and NE NC this afternoon and evening. Widespread slow- moving showers and thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban, poor drainage, and other flood prone areas. Storms could potentially approach severe levels with damaging winds the primary threat. Afternoon weather analysis shows primarily weak zonal flow aloft with subtle kinks within the flow. At the surface, a cold front is sagged across east-central VA to SE VA. North of the front slightly cooler temperatures are in place with temps ranging between the upper 70s to low 80s. While south of the frontal passage temps range in the middle to upper 80s to even low 90s. Along and south of the front continues to remain the best areas to see the potential for a storm potentially producing a strong to severe wind gust. However, the severe threat remains quite marginal given the bad lapse rates, weak DCAPE, and very weak shear. The only thing going for the storms is a hot and humid environment with MLcape values in excess of 2500J/kg. With a hot and humid environment in place the main threat today is the potential for Flash Flooding. Across the entire CWA (even behind the front) PWATS are between 2-2.3". These PWATS mixed with the modest to strong MLCApe will help allow storms to produce heavy rainfall potentially leading to Flash Flooding. The 12z HREF continues to lock in with ~30% chc of 3"/3hr primarily along and S of the I-64 corridor, with localized pockets of 4-6" possible. With the models remaining consistent the Flood Watch remains in effect for the Piedmont, central and southeast Virginia, and northeast North Carolina. KEY MESSAGE 2...Near-normal temperatures are expected for most of this week. Additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms added for Thursday. Through the much of the week and into the weekend a typical summer time pattern will be present with weak synoptic flow aloft and a hot and humid airmass at the surface. This will allow for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue. For Wednesday, the front will have passed through the area and temperatures will feel "slightly" cooler with upper 70s to low 80s north of I-64 and along the coast. While further south temps will be in the middle to upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will once again impact the area but should primarily remain sub-severe. The best chance for a stronger storm would be across the SW where the hotter temperatures are expected. Thursday looks to be the better for a chance of stronger to severe storms as a stronger shortwave is progged to move through the area and keeps storms slightly more organized. The main threat at this time continues to be damaging winds as a hot and humid environment will be in place with high temperatures in the lower 90s. Another front may cross the area Saturday with higher PoPs returning. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Wednesday... A weak cold front was slowly pushing S across southern VA as of 06z. Primarily VFR. However, onshore flow will develop behind the front, and IFR/MVFR cigs should gradually overspread the area through 08z. Scattered nearly stationary showers and some isolated tstms linger through 08-10z, but are not expected to directly impact any of the TAF sites at this time. Any IFR cigs linger through 14-15z, before gradually lifting to MVFR, and then VFR by mid to late aftn. Isolated to scattered showers linger through this morning, with a few tstms possible by early aftn. However, the best chances move W of a line from RIC to ECG by later in the aftn. The wind will generally be E/ENE 5-10kt through the day, before shifting to ESE later in the aftn and evening. Additional IFR/MVFR stratus potentially develops late tonight into Thursday morning. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms return Thursday, with the probability 20% or less by Friday (better chances N/NW of an RIC-SBY line), then 40-60% by Saturday, and less than 30% Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected this week. Light southerly flow becomes NE and briefly increases to 10-15 kt Wednesday morning. - Elevated winds and waves from strong thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon and evening. Benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Latest wind observations show light winds less than 5 kts that are generally onshore. Winds off of the MD Eastern Shore are a touch higher, around 10 kt. Seas are around 2ft for most waters, around 3ft in the northern coastal waters. Onshore flow continues through tomorrow on the north side of a slow moving cold front. Winds pick to around 10-15kt over all marine zones late tonight, staying slightly breezy through Wednesday night. Seas will be able to build to 3-4ft during this time. Winds turn SE Thurs then SW Thurs night and Fri, generally staying below 15kt. Seas stay around 3ft through the end of the week. There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Heavy rain is the main concern today and Wed, but gusty winds will still be possible. Chances for severe storms increases Thurs and Fri. SMWs will be issued as necessary. . && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar is down due to mechanical issues without an estimated time of return. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AC EQUIPMENT...  450 FXUS61 KCTP 080555 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 155 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Flood Watch issued for the southern Alleghenies & Laurel Highlands until 12AM Wednesday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible in south central PA this afternoon into tonight && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible in south central PA this afternoon into tonight Considerable breaks in the clouds has allowed for convective development over southwest PA late this morning into the early afternoon. High moisture content environment remains in place with slow moving showers/storms capable of producing intense rain rates. Cumulative rainfall over the past few days has lead to increased soil sensitivity and significantly reduced FFG. Hires ensemble guidance (HREF/REFS) shows the southern Alleghenies and Laurels Highlands with the highest odds for localized 2-3" rainfall amounts. WPC has maintained a level 2/4 excessive rain risk for this area and we issued a flood watch until 12AM Wed to highlight the short-term flooding threat. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week, especially Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs generally in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Plenty of low level moisture still in place across the region. Areas east of a KBFD-KDUJ-KAOO line will keep the MVFR ceilings through the first half of the night. Brought these locations down to IFR or LIFR in BR/FG. Confidence is high (>70%) for LIFR in FG at KUNV as it has for the past several mornings. The remainder of sites will see a mix between VFR and MVFR conditions overnight, with alternations between the two possible. Visibilities are expected to be mostly VFR at these sites as well. Model guidance does indicate a slow improvement trend after 12Z Wednesday, thus have continued the trend of increasing visibilities and ceilings during the mid and late day. Winds will shift to a general southerly direction but will remain less than 8kts. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Mainly dry early. Numerous to many SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon. Intermittent impacts likely. Sat-Sun...Chance of showers and a few storms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bauco DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bauco AVIATION...Lambrech/Tyburski  462 FXUS63 KJKL 080555 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 155 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of locally dense fog will affect the area through the morning commute. - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. - Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility through the next 7 days, with a threat of at least isolated flash flooding each day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 135 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Aside from beefing up the fog and adding an SPS, no significant changes were made to the forecast - mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones. UPDATE Issued at 926 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026 After an active afternoon of convection driven largely by varying outflows beneath weak steering currents aloft, the precipitation is waning quickly. Even so, a few rogue showers/thunderstorms continue to pop up at times. Will look for the quieter regime to continue tonight, with an overall decrease in clouds as convection lessens with loss of instability. However, confidence in overnight sky condition is meager. With enough clearing, fog could become widespread, especially where precip occurred. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 238 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Weak flow persists across the Bluegrass State this afternoon, with a closed mid-level and upper low over the Mid-South region and a weak quasi-stationary boundary/front located just south to the south and parallel of the Ohio River. Humid and moderately unstable conditions persist to the south of the front, and will likely serve as the impetus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, diminishing this evening. The relatively weak flow aloft will support somewhat slow storm motions, which could result in locally excessive rainfall and resulting high water issues. The aforementioned surface boundary retreats north of the Ohio River overnight tonight as mid-level flow increases modestly from the south and southwest ahead of the weakening/filling mid-level low to the west. This will keep low chances of showers and storms in the forecast, but where this is any clearing fog is likely to develop, especially after midnight and lasting into the mid-morning Wednesday before lifting/burning off. Expect little in the way of ridge-valley splits given the high humidity and little change in air mass. Mid-level flow will be a bit stronger over southeastern Kentucky Wednesday, but is not expected at this time to be enough to support organized convection. The biggest impact may be to help provide a bit more progressive storm motions, as high humidity and moderate instability remain across eastern Kentucky to the south of the quasi- stationary front/boundary, which is likely to be located by Wednesday afternoon between the Ohio River and Interstate 64. Would thus expect scattered to numerous showers and storms once again Wednesday afternoon into early evening before activity slowly diminishes with the loss of daytime heating. Isolated instances of flash flooding will again be possible where heavy rain moves repeatedly over the same area. The mid-level low continues to weaken into an open trough and crosses the area Wednesday night, supporting at least some shower/thunderstorm chance through the overnight. Where there is any clearing, expect widespread fog to develop once again with little in the way of ridge-valley splits in temperatures once again. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at302 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast. Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday, as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the Intermountain West. For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall, and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday. Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday, with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Already the fog and low stratus are starting to affect the majority of the TAF sites at the 06Z issuance with IFR and MVFR conditions reported. This is expected to bring generalized IFR or worse conditions, with the poorest expected to be in valleys and where significant rain occurred on Tuesday. Look for the fog to dissipate later this morning a couple of hours after sunrise, possibly converting to or merging with a low cloud deck before clearing out. VFR conditions then return until more showers/ thunderstorms develop after daytime heating builds. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL  570 FXUS61 KCTP 080557 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 157 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Flood Watch issued for the southern Alleghenies & Laurel Highlands until 12AM Wednesday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible in south central PA this afternoon into tonight && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible in south central PA this afternoon into tonight Considerable breaks in the clouds has allowed for convective development over southwest PA late this morning into the early afternoon. High moisture content environment remains in place with slow moving showers/storms capable of producing intense rain rates. Cumulative rainfall over the past few days has lead to increased soil sensitivity and significantly reduced FFG. Hires ensemble guidance (HREF/REFS) shows the southern Alleghenies and Laurels Highlands with the highest odds for localized 2-3" rainfall amounts. WPC has maintained a level 2/4 excessive rain risk for this area and we issued a flood watch until 12AM Wed to highlight the short-term flooding threat. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week, especially Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs generally in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Plenty of low level moisture still in place across the region. Areas east of a KBFD-KDUJ-KAOO line will likely drop down to IFR or LIFR in BR/FG for the back half of the night. Confidence is high (>70%) for LIFR in FG at KUNV as it has for the past several mornings. The remainder of sites will see a mix between VFR and MVFR conditions overnight, with alternations between the two possible. Visibilities are expected to be mostly VFR at these sites as well. Model guidance does indicate a slow improvement trend after 12Z Wednesday, thus have continued the trend of increasing visibilities and ceilings during the mid and late day. Winds will shift to a general southerly direction but will remain less than 8kts. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Mainly dry early. Numerous to many SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon. Intermittent impacts likely. Sat-Sun...Chance of showers and a few storms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bauco DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bauco AVIATION...Lambrech/Tyburski  578 FXUS62 KJAX 080557 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 157 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms Today, Decreasing Chances Through the Week - Heat Advisory Today. Peak Heat Index 105-111 Most Areas. Major Heat Risk through the rest of the Week - Moderate Rip Current Risk Beaches Today && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Heat Advisory in effect today - Lower convective chances today Stacked high pressure ridge axis will remain over south central FL area continuing the deep southwesterly flow. PWATs are about 1.8 to 1.9 inches, and so are still close to normal. Mean layer flow is a little weaker today and moisture levels in the 1000-700mb layer are drier than the past 2 days. This combined with warm temps aloft and the prevailing southwest flow will result in lower coverage/chances of showers and storms today, mainly in the 20-30 percent range. Strongest storm potential will be along the dominant west coast sea breeze and later in the afternoon along the east coast sea breeze. The latter feature will be able to move inland a little further than the past 2 days given the weaker flow. Any isolated convection this evening will tend to dissipate through 11 pm. Less cloud cover, slightly warmer temps at 925 mb and 850 mb, and weak flow will enable even hotter temperatures than Mon and Tue. Currently have a heat advisory in effect today with some areas topping out near 110. High temps in the mid to upper 90s anticipated and not far from record highs. These records are noted below in the climate section. Muggy overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s expected. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential for Thursday and Friday Afternoons - Lower convective chances Upper air ridging strengthens, limiting convection for the end of the work week. Precipitation chances Thursday remain isolated over north central Florida and the northeast FL coast south of St. Augustine in the afternoon and evening where some moisture lingers, with northeast Florida and southeast Georgia likely remaining dry on Friday. With mostly sunny skies and very limited showers and storms, dangerous heat will be the main concern both days. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast as southwesterly winds continue. Afternoon heat indices will approach 102-110 degrees both days, Heat Advisories may be necessary for portions of northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential Saturday Afternoon - Convective chances increase Sunday Onward Convection will gradually increase daily Saturday onward, with coverage Saturday mainly isolated to scattered as both sea breezes push inland. Sunday, stronger southwest flow will bring higher convective chances closer to the I-95 corridor to the coast where the Gulf sea breeze meets the pinned Atlantic sea breeze later in the afternoon. Afternoon max heat index values remain dangerously high Saturday, approaching Heat Advisory conditions. By Sunday, temperatures drop a few degrees area-wide as more storms are expected. Monday and Tuesday, precipitation chances increase to near 60-70% as a front approaches from the north. Higher cloud cover and storm chances will lower temperatures back to near normal in the lower to mid 90s to start off the new week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will persist overnight with light southwesterly flow. There may be some mist near at VQQ toward early morning. More limited convective coverage is expected today as upper ridging establishes over Florida. Still anticipate a 20-30 percent chance of showers and a storm, but low confidence on timing right now so have only included VCSH/VCTS. Otherwise, southwesterly flow will keep the east coast sea breeze from pushing beyond KCRG/KSSI/KSGJ this afternoon. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a prolonged southwest flow during the day followed by evening wind surges from the south to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters each day through the week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents continues today through the end of the week due to fairly low surf conditions from prevailing offshore flow. Some enhanced potential still looks likely for the northern beaches by late afternoon from Mayport northward due to stronger southeast wind component each day. Surf remains generally in the 1-2 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersion North Of I-10 Through The Week High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through Monday, with drier than normal conditions forecast through Saturday. This will lead to above average temperatures and dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values through Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Sunday, with patchy to areas of high afternoon dispersion north of I-10 expected each day. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above critical values. Precipitation chances increase early next week as a front approaches from the north. Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows. && .CLIMATE... Summer heat is certainly here. There is potential for some locations to get to the century mark today with probability of this occurrence at about 20-30 percent. These probabilities look a bit higher for Thursday and Friday. For the next few days, here are the record high temperatures that are within 3 degrees of the current forecast: July 8th: KJAX: 100/1879 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 100/2016 July 9th: KJAX: 101/1879 KGNV: 99/1932 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 101/2016 July 10th: KJAX: 102/1879 KGNV: 99/1914 KAMG: 99/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 July 11th: KGNV: 100/1900 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/1998 July 12th: KGNV: 99/1902 KCRG: 99/1981 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 77 97 77 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 96 80 96 80 / 10 10 10 10 JAX 97 78 98 77 / 20 10 10 0 SGJ 96 77 96 78 / 20 10 10 0 GNV 96 75 97 75 / 10 10 20 0 OCF 95 76 96 76 / 10 10 20 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-152>154-162-163-165-166-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$  570 FXUS61 KCTP 080557 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 157 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Flood Watch issued for the southern Alleghenies & Laurel Highlands until 12AM Wednesday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible in south central PA this afternoon into tonight && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible in south central PA this afternoon into tonight Considerable breaks in the clouds has allowed for convective development over southwest PA late this morning into the early afternoon. High moisture content environment remains in place with slow moving showers/storms capable of producing intense rain rates. Cumulative rainfall over the past few days has lead to increased soil sensitivity and significantly reduced FFG. Hires ensemble guidance (HREF/REFS) shows the southern Alleghenies and Laurels Highlands with the highest odds for localized 2-3" rainfall amounts. WPC has maintained a level 2/4 excessive rain risk for this area and we issued a flood watch until 12AM Wed to highlight the short-term flooding threat. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week, especially Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs generally in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Plenty of low level moisture still in place across the region. Areas east of a KBFD-KDUJ-KAOO line will likely drop down to IFR or LIFR in BR/FG for the back half of the night. Confidence is high (>70%) for LIFR in FG at KUNV as it has for the past several mornings. The remainder of sites will see a mix between VFR and MVFR conditions overnight, with alternations between the two possible. Visibilities are expected to be mostly VFR at these sites as well. Model guidance does indicate a slow improvement trend after 12Z Wednesday, thus have continued the trend of increasing visibilities and ceilings during the mid and late day. Winds will shift to a general southerly direction but will remain less than 8kts. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Mainly dry early. Numerous to many SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon. Intermittent impacts likely. Sat-Sun...Chance of showers and a few storms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bauco DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bauco AVIATION...Lambrech/Tyburski  578 FXUS62 KJAX 080557 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 157 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms Today, Decreasing Chances Through the Week - Heat Advisory Today. Peak Heat Index 105-111 Most Areas. Major Heat Risk through the rest of the Week - Moderate Rip Current Risk Beaches Today && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Heat Advisory in effect today - Lower convective chances today Stacked high pressure ridge axis will remain over south central FL area continuing the deep southwesterly flow. PWATs are about 1.8 to 1.9 inches, and so are still close to normal. Mean layer flow is a little weaker today and moisture levels in the 1000-700mb layer are drier than the past 2 days. This combined with warm temps aloft and the prevailing southwest flow will result in lower coverage/chances of showers and storms today, mainly in the 20-30 percent range. Strongest storm potential will be along the dominant west coast sea breeze and later in the afternoon along the east coast sea breeze. The latter feature will be able to move inland a little further than the past 2 days given the weaker flow. Any isolated convection this evening will tend to dissipate through 11 pm. Less cloud cover, slightly warmer temps at 925 mb and 850 mb, and weak flow will enable even hotter temperatures than Mon and Tue. Currently have a heat advisory in effect today with some areas topping out near 110. High temps in the mid to upper 90s anticipated and not far from record highs. These records are noted below in the climate section. Muggy overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s expected. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential for Thursday and Friday Afternoons - Lower convective chances Upper air ridging strengthens, limiting convection for the end of the work week. Precipitation chances Thursday remain isolated over north central Florida and the northeast FL coast south of St. Augustine in the afternoon and evening where some moisture lingers, with northeast Florida and southeast Georgia likely remaining dry on Friday. With mostly sunny skies and very limited showers and storms, dangerous heat will be the main concern both days. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast as southwesterly winds continue. Afternoon heat indices will approach 102-110 degrees both days, Heat Advisories may be necessary for portions of northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential Saturday Afternoon - Convective chances increase Sunday Onward Convection will gradually increase daily Saturday onward, with coverage Saturday mainly isolated to scattered as both sea breezes push inland. Sunday, stronger southwest flow will bring higher convective chances closer to the I-95 corridor to the coast where the Gulf sea breeze meets the pinned Atlantic sea breeze later in the afternoon. Afternoon max heat index values remain dangerously high Saturday, approaching Heat Advisory conditions. By Sunday, temperatures drop a few degrees area-wide as more storms are expected. Monday and Tuesday, precipitation chances increase to near 60-70% as a front approaches from the north. Higher cloud cover and storm chances will lower temperatures back to near normal in the lower to mid 90s to start off the new week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will persist overnight with light southwesterly flow. There may be some mist near at VQQ toward early morning. More limited convective coverage is expected today as upper ridging establishes over Florida. Still anticipate a 20-30 percent chance of showers and a storm, but low confidence on timing right now so have only included VCSH/VCTS. Otherwise, southwesterly flow will keep the east coast sea breeze from pushing beyond KCRG/KSSI/KSGJ this afternoon. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a prolonged southwest flow during the day followed by evening wind surges from the south to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters each day through the week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents continues today through the end of the week due to fairly low surf conditions from prevailing offshore flow. Some enhanced potential still looks likely for the northern beaches by late afternoon from Mayport northward due to stronger southeast wind component each day. Surf remains generally in the 1-2 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersion North Of I-10 Through The Week High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through Monday, with drier than normal conditions forecast through Saturday. This will lead to above average temperatures and dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values through Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Sunday, with patchy to areas of high afternoon dispersion north of I-10 expected each day. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above critical values. Precipitation chances increase early next week as a front approaches from the north. Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows. && .CLIMATE... Summer heat is certainly here. There is potential for some locations to get to the century mark today with probability of this occurrence at about 20-30 percent. These probabilities look a bit higher for Thursday and Friday. For the next few days, here are the record high temperatures that are within 3 degrees of the current forecast: July 8th: KJAX: 100/1879 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 100/2016 July 9th: KJAX: 101/1879 KGNV: 99/1932 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 101/2016 July 10th: KJAX: 102/1879 KGNV: 99/1914 KAMG: 99/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 July 11th: KGNV: 100/1900 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/1998 July 12th: KGNV: 99/1902 KCRG: 99/1981 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 77 97 77 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 96 80 96 80 / 10 10 10 10 JAX 97 78 98 77 / 20 10 10 0 SGJ 96 77 96 78 / 20 10 10 0 GNV 96 75 97 75 / 10 10 20 0 OCF 95 76 96 76 / 10 10 20 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-152>154-162-163-165-166-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$