744 FXUS62 KRAH 080600 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Heat Advisory issued today && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 AM Wednesday... 1) Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. 2) Long duration heat concerns coming to an end after today. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 AM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain Early morning satellite, radar, and surface analysis show decaying convection across eastern NC. Surface obs show a northeasterly wind shift at many sites, driven primarily from the outflow from Tuesday night's convection. This wind shift is oriented roughly along US-64 as of 06Z. A weak synoptic backdoor cold front remains across northern VA this morning, with a secondary weak trough across the western Piedmont. Meanwhile to the west, a quasi-stationary upper wave over AR/TN is beginning to open up and trek northeastward through the lower OH valley. For today, the upper trough to our west will provide a broad area of ascent across the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. Modest upper support from the approaching wave, along with the proximity of the aforementioned outflow boundary and Piedmont trough, will support another round of afternoon showers and storms. Much like the past several days, deep layer shear is lacking but we have plenty of MLCAPE to work with (1500-2500 J/kG) and PW's remain anomalously high (2-2.2"). Any storms that form will be capable of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. The majority of the forecast area remains outlooked within a SPC MRGL risk. Storm chances ramp up after 18Z and should linger into the mid/late evening hours per 00Z HREF, tapering off area-wide after midnight. To the south of the stalled outflow boundary, temps will warm considerably into the mid/upper 90s. This, combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, will yield another afternoon of dangerously high heat index values and we've gone ahead with another Heat Advisory for locations south and east of Raleigh (Sandhills, central and southern Coastal Plain). Starting it a little earlier today as heat index values will already be above 100 in some spots by 11 AM. If storms get going in these areas early, the Advisory may be cancelled prior to it's expected ending time of 8 PM. KEY MESSAGE 2...Long duration heat concerns coming to an end after today. A strong mid-level anticyclone over the FL peninsula, 00z RAOBS sampled 595 dam Tues evening, ridging up into the Carolinas will become suppressed southward Thurs as a meandering shortwave trough over the TN Valley begins to shift eastward. Additionally, near normal PWAT values will advect into the area Thurs and combine with westerly downsloping flow, albeit weak, to allow surface dew points to mix out into the 60s where greatest low-lvl thickness and associated 2m temperatures will likely still reach into the upper 90s Thurs and Fri. This should limit heat indices max out in the low 100s. Heat Risk does still feature a level 3 risk for the Sandhills, eastern Piedmont and the southern Coastal Plain, but 2-meter temperatures are only 5-10 degrees above normal for mid-July with some degree of acclimation likely starting to set in. Nevertheless, be aware of the signs of heat exhaustion, especially if you much be outside and partake in strenuous activity. A break from the seasonably anomalous heat is expected as increased cloud cover and precipitation chances increase Fri through Sun as a convectively perturbed, and seasonably moist, shear axis slowly sags southward through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast. Mid-lvl convergence on the backside of troughing over the northern Atlantic may also sufficiently strengthen surface high pressure over the Northeast to push a backdoor cold front into the Carolinas Sun night into Mon. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1241 AM Wednesday... Some isolated pockets of convection continue near RWI this morning, otherwise conditions have dried out and remain VFR. As a weak backdoor cold front approaches from the northeast overnight, we should see at least some amount of MVFR stratus make a run at GSO/INT/RDU/RWI closer to daybreak. In addition, abundant rainfall Tuesday evening should set the stage for at least some MVFR vsbys through daybreak although quite a bit of high cloud cover should prevent this from becoming widespread/dense. Attention turns toward the afternoon where the presence of a stalled surface boundary and lee troughing should serve as the focus for another round of afternoon showers and storms. The most widespread convection is expected from approx 20Z - 02Z before waning after midnight. Brief MVFR restrictions can be expected within any given thunderstorm. Outlook: A persistent summertime pattern will support generally VFR conditions outside of daily afternoon and evening convection through the end of the week. Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible in thunderstorms each day, with localized late night or early morning fog or stratus following heavier rainfall. Outside of convection, no widespread or prolonged aviation impacts are expected. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-077-078-085-086-088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leins/AS AVIATION...Leins/np  755 FXUS65 KBOU 080600 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1200 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms, with a few strong to severe storms, are expected from the Front Range eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. - Hot temperatures arrive Saturday lasting through at least Tuesday with a minimal chance of any thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 213 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Visible satellite imagery shows convective clouds have formed across the higher terrain today. In addition, it shows a decent amount of smoke in our CWA to the south of I-70. The smoke, combined with the heat, is helping to create unpleasant conditions outside this afternoon. The coverage of the showers and storms will be between 30-50% across our forecast area today. Dew points have remained elevated despite what the high resolution models had expected. KFNL, KLMO, and KBDU all had dew points in the low 50s at 1:15pm resulting in better instability than forecast. This may lead to more intense updrafts that lead to a few severe wind gusts from the foothills across the eastern plains. While some areas will see brief heavy rain, most areas will see little to no rainfall. The center of the ridge of high pressure aloft will slide southwestward Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow for slightly better 500 and 250 mb flow aloft each day resulting in deep layer shear between 25-35 knots on Wednesday and 30-40 knots on Thursday. With moderate east-northeasterly surface flow bringing in moisture and instability, strong to severe storms are expected each day. SPC has the eastern plains outlined in a slight risk for severe storms with damaging wind gusts the primary threat each day. The storms, clouds, and increased low level moisture will be able to cool temperatures as well. Highs on Wednesday across the plains will be in the low 90s with the upper 80s expected on Thursday. Instability will weaken on Friday as somewhat cooler conditions are expected. Shower and storm coverage will decrease to isolated coverage. An anomalously strong ridge will develop on Saturday and will position itself roughly over Wyoming to South Dakota Sunday through Tuesday. There will be very warm air aloft with 500 mb temperatures roughly -3 to -5 C over our forecast area during this period. This will suppress the chance for storms and cloud cover. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures will be well above normal. The interesting thing about the position of this ridge is that southeast winds look likely to develop across almost our entire forecast area. If this verifies, it will actually lead to moist, upslope flow across the plains and this will help to keep temperatures below 100 degrees in most areas. If the winds don't end up being easterly and keep more of a southwesterly component, temperatures may soar above 100 degrees across the I-25 corridor which may lead to Heat Advisories. To the west of the Continental Divide, the likely downslope, southeasterly winds will result in record high temperatures. Highs may reach the mid 90s in the Middle Park and the low 90s in North Park. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/... Issued at 1144 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Drainage winds will prevail overnight, before winds turn more to the northwest in the mid to late morning and eventually turn north/northeast by the late morning to early afternoon. Showers and storms are expected to begin developing in the higher terrain and the foothills around 18Z today. These storms will then push eastward impacting all three TAF sites this afternoon. This activity will be scattered, so we have a tempo at all three TAF sites (BJC starts at 19Z and APA and DEN start at 20Z). The majority of the storms are expected to moveout around 00Z, with a low potential for some lingering showers. Winds after the storms move through are a bit tricky. Right now, we have NE to SE winds turning variable after the storms push east, but we could see outflow boundaries move through any of the TAF sites from strong convection to the east. We'll have to keep an eye on any potential outflow boundaries and gusty winds this evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Danielson AVIATION...AP  886 FXUS63 KAPX 080602 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 202 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers & storms increase thru the day today, esp tonight into Thurs. Isolated strong storms are possible along with localized flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: SPC mesoanalysis currently shows plenty of column moisture pooling across portions of MN and vicinity, poised to make a run eastward and advect into northern MI today into Thursday. Combine that with several embedded west to east, or WNW to ESE perturbations within the flow, convectively agitated or otherwise, and the chances for showers and thunderstorms increases through the day today, continuing into Thursday. Additionally, sfc frontal boundary will slowly sag southward today into Thursday, with the potential for low pressure system to slightly organize and ride along this boundary. This could result in a corridor of enhanced rainfall. The best combination of low level convergence, upper level divergence (due to multiple disturbances in the upper level flow), and progged instability will be tonight into portions of Thursday, realizing the best potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and isolated stronger storms capable of gusty winds. Locales with recent heavy rains (Tip of the Mitt and portions of Leelanau, Antrim and Charlevoix counties) will be more sensitive to heavy rain rates and thus a slightly heightened flooding potential. Showers and storms this morning and midday will likely focus across Tip of the Mitt and Eastern Upper, with northwest lower MI in play afternoon/evening and beyond as convection west of Lake MI tries to develop and move into northern MI. Looking at the latest model guidance shows a wide range of outcomes, pretty typical for a system such as this. One piece of guidance that is quite bullish is the RAP, which is insistent on a more compact low pressure system riding the sfc frontal boundary with significant sfc convergence near and just to the north of this feature and subsequently unleashing some healthy rain totals across some of the aforementioned sensitive areas. There are definitely other pieces of guidance hinting at a healthy rainfall as well, with the progged environment/sounding tonight into early Thursday nothing short of tropical. The limiting factor may be the instability quality, but when the column is this saturated with warm cloud depths ~12+ kft, efficient and heavy rainfall will occur with the slightest hints of convective precipitation. This particular model (RAP) may easily be influenced by convective feedback producing a more compact low pressure system and enhanced area of convergence, so will need to monitor model and observational trends. That does not change the environment in place tonight into Thursday, just depends on the quality of the instability and where the best lift sets up. Showers and storms, capable of locally heavy rain, will continue on Thursday, a southward trend with time into northern and central lower Michigan as the forcing and best instability/moisture oozes southward. Although moisture is quite high and EBWD is pretty marginal, would not be surprised to see a isolated stronger storm near Saginaw Bay and vicinity based on the current progged soundings, given convection initiates. Precipitation chances will wane through the night, with a mostly dry weekend. Temperatures warm back into the 80s this weekend as ridging builds across a good chunk of the CONUS and thus heights rise across N MI. Couple pieces of deterministic guidance show a piece of energy well to the north and east with the potential to produce precipitation on Sunday, but ensemble 50th percentile 24 hr QPF is not impressed with this potential, and neither is our current fcst for this weekend. The heat is on...across the central portions of the country next week as potent/anomalous high pressure builds across the Northern Plains vicinity. Consequently, this feature will keep northern Michigan pretty warm at least into early to mid next week (plenty of 80s with some 90s sprinkled in). We'll be keeping an eye on any robust pieces of energy on the north and northeast side of this high pressure system attempting to, or not to, slide into N MI. Right now, the signal for impactful weather within the ENS suite is pretty low, at least during the early portions of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Some brief fog restrictions are possible again overnight at MBL/APN. Otherwise, clouds will be increasing Wednesday, earliest in the north (PLN/CIU). Showers will expand/develop southward Wed afternoon and evening, with TSRA possible at CIU/PLN and maybe APN. Cigs will eventually lower to MVFR at CIU/PLN/APN, with low-end VFR by Wed evening TVC/MBL. Light winds. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...JZ  952 FXUS63 KGLD 080603 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1203 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm and shower chances return on Tuesday through Thursday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 111 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 This afternoon into the evening, as the 500 mb ridge axis stars to move out of the CWA, an 850 mb low coming out of the Northern Rockies is expected to sweep a weak cold front over the CWA. This will lead to some scattered storms moving into the CWA from the northwest. We expect these storms to be decaying as they reach the northwestern CWA around 0-3Z. Precipitation looks to fully end by 6- 9Z. Most likely hazards with these storms will be winds in the 40-55 kts range, and hail up to around 1 inch. The wind may lead to blowing dust, creating reduced visibility. From today's convection, localized plumes of dust are the more likely dust threat, versus a haboob. Wednesday is a stronger copy of Tuesday. Storms look to be entering the western CWA around 22-0Z. The potential for severe winds increases with tomorrow, and if a bowing segment is able to form, winds up around 70 MPH are likely. This increases the blowing dust threat, and both plumes and a haboob are possible from the thunderstorm winds tomorrow afternoon and evening. The hail threat increases, but shear looks to remain very low. Most likely hail will be less than 1.25 inches, but an exceptionally strong storm could produce 2 inch hail. There is massive disagreement in coverage for storms tomorrow. One solution has storms entering the western fringe of the CWA, turning southbound, and decaying. This would keep hazards limited to west of U.S. 385 and end the threat by 5Z. Conversely, the other option is the storms form into a broken QLCS and move east-southeast across the CWA. This increases the wind threat, and introduces an extremely low flooding risk as trailing, back-building storms would have a 10% chance of occurring. This second scenario could have convection persisting until around 9Z in the CWA. Besides the potential for back-building storms, we are not expecting a lot of precipitation to come from these storms today and tomorrow. There will be a threat of dry lightning to start fires with these storms. However, we are not expecting any critical fire weather conditions as RH values remain above criteria. Temperatures throughout the short-term are still expected to warm into the 90s with lows in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 144 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ***Thursday/Friday*** Upper-level flow looks to be approximately zonal Thursday and Friday. A shortwave trough making its way across the Rocky Mountains would support a surface low in Colorado during the afternoon and evening Thursday. Southeasterly winds may be allowed to develop ahead of the surface low during the afternoon and evening hours, allowing high temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thunderstorms are possible across a convergence zone centered approximately in Eastern Colorado. LREF and NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance both suggest at least a 60% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Thursday across this zone. Surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg seem likely as well according to LREF guidance. The severe potential with these storms will depend on whether stronger winds develop in the mid and upper levels. GFS and EC guidance appears consistent that upper-level winds may only support marginal severe thunderstorms, with most soundings showing 35 kts or less of 0-6 km shear. However, if 75th percentile or better 0-500 mb shear can be experienced (35 kts or greater), some of these storms may be allowed to produce severe hail and wind. Confidence in severe thunderstorms developing Thursday is around 5-10% at this time. The shortwave trough may stick around into Friday. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Thunderstorms are possible again, though appear to be less likely than Thursday. NBM guidance shows the best chances for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation on Friday across portions of West- Central Kansas, but is still only 45% or less. Similar CAPE values to Thursday are in play across this zone, though vertical wind shear may be even weaker. Confidence in severe weather occurring Friday is 5% or less. ***Saturday-Tuesday*** Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the remainder of the forecast will be dominated by broad upper-level ridging overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s. Drying across the forecast area may help prevent heat index values from rising to the level of a Heat Advisory as well. Precipitation appears unlikely Saturday through Tuesday, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows probabilities around 10% or less across the forecast region to see greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period at both terminals. At KGLD, thunderstorms are expected to transition to rain within the first hour. Rain is expected to end around 8Z at KGLD. For both terminals, low level wind shear is expected through at least 11Z and potentially last through 13-14Z. Then winds are forecast to become lighter around 5-10 knots. For KGLD, winds are forecast to veer through the day from out of the south to out of the northwest to out of the east. For KMCK, winds are forecast to vary between out of the south and out of the east. There is a chance for thunderstorms from 0Z to the end of the period. These could be severe. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...KAK/Rhoades  989 FXUS62 KILM 080604 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 204 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have issued an Extreme Heat Warning for eastern parts of the area with a Heat Advisory elsewhere. && .KEY MESSAGES... -1)Extreme heat will be in place for the next few days across the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Extreme heat will be in place for the next few days across the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...The synoptic pattern shifts slightly today as the mid level low inches across the Tennessee Valley. The response across the eastern Carolinas will be subtle ridging. This will limit convection somewhat and push the axis of activity to the north. Northern zones of our CWA may see some activity later in the day. Its worth noting the new day one outlook from SPC has jogged the marginal risk a bit further north. The aforementioned events allow surface temperatures to increase slightly and with prolific dewpoints heat indices have eclipsed the 110 threshold in many areas mainly east. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for these areas. A what is seemingly daily Heat Advisory has been issued well inland. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are currently in place and confidence is generally high they will remain so. So far there is little indication of sea/ocean stratus along the coast. Inland areas that saw decent rainfall amounts earlier remain prone to some fog/stratus development but fog formation just seems very difficult with these temperatures and there remains some wind in the column. Finally with less coverage of convection expected later today only Wilmington has thunder mentioned in the form of a Prob 30 group. Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sunday. && .MARINE... The Piedmont trough will remain in place through most of the period and be the dominant wind-maker as the Bermuda High is displaced eastward. Winds remain solidly SW save for the seabreeze acceleration. A slight westward jog off the offshore high will increase winds Thursday into Friday and less so Saturday. A brief window of marginal advisory-worthy 6 ft seas cannot be ruled out. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK KEY MESSAGES...SHK DISCUSSION...SHK AVIATION...SHK MARINE...SHK  970 FXUS66 KLOX 080604 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1104 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...07/207 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge building over the region. Some relief from the heat is likely this weekend as the ridge breaks down and opens the door for possible monsoon showers or thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...07/1016 PM. ***UPDATE*** Highs today were very similar to yesterday, notably cooler along the Central Coast, which saw morning marine layer clouds and warmer 80s and 90s for many valleys and the interior. Sundowner winds began early today, allowed for highs to reach the warm 80s along much of the Santa Barbara south coast. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer over the next few days, especially for the interior and valleys. However, highs were cooled slightly along the Central Coast where again we should see plenty of marine layer clouds. Winds have picked up significantly along the western Santa Ynez range this evening, with local gusts peaking around 55-58 mph over peaks and through windy canyons, supported by the offshore Santa Barbara to Santa Maria gradient peaking around 5.3 mb. Will likely need another wind advisory for this area to cover Wednesday evening, although winds may be a touch lighter than they were tonight. ***From Previous Discussion*** High confidence in moderate heat risk away from the coast through at least Thursday in response to a ridge peaking near 596 dm over the region Wednesday and Thursday before gradually weakening and shifting into the Four Corners region this weekend. No changes to the associated Heat Advisory that runs through Friday. Heat will peak for most areas Wednesday and Thursday before a decent cooling trend begins Friday. Peak highs are expected to be 70s to mid 80s near the coast, 90-105 valleys and lower mountains/desert. Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening (advisory in effect) and possible again Wednesday and Thursday evenings for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well as interior areas due to combined hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Night to morning low clouds will mostly be relegated to the Central Coast, although an eddy in response to the Sundowner winds may squeeze pockets of low clouds and dense fog under the building ridge, especially for southern Los Angeles County. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/206 PM. The ridge at least briefing breaks down this weekend before likely nosing back into the region during the middle part of next week. Broad southeast to southerly flow aloft will support a 10-20 percent chance (highest mountains and deserts) of monsoon showers or thunderstorms this weekend into next week. The added moisture may add to at least low to moderate heat risk in the region, with heat potentially building closer to the coast. && .AVIATION...08/0603Z. At 0518Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1400 ft deep with a temperature of 27 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 25 percent chc for LIFR conds through 16Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Moderate confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z. Low confidence in TAFs for KSMO and KLAX (40 percent chc of IFR cigs 11Z-17Z) and KLGB (40 percent chc of no cigs) KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of OVC008 conds 11Z-17Z). Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...07/849 PM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Thursday across the Outer Waters. There is a 50-70% chance of Gale Force winds Wednesday afternoon and again Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid- week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend. SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel greatest during the afternoon and evening hours through at least Thursday. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoons/evenings through Thursday. For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through tonight. Otherwise, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zone 368. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/Munroe AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...RM/Lund/CC/SF SYNOPSIS...RM weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  154 FXHW60 PHFO 080608 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 808 PM HST Tue Jul 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce breezy to windy trades for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Showers will primarily focus along windward and mauka areas. However, an increase in shower coverage and frequency is anticipated later this week and into the weekend, with higher rain accumulations likely occurring during the nocturnal hours. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Minor adjustments were made to PoPs to account for current trends. Previous forecast remains on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 PM HST Tue Jul 7 2026 Current radar and satellite imagery shows isolated to scattered showers moving into windward and mauka areas on the trade wind flow this afternoon, with more moisture focused over the eastern end of the state. This has been the short term trend with consistent rainfall over the northeast-facing coastal areas of the Big Island bringing 2 to 3+ inches of rain to those areas in the last 24 hours, whereas elsewhere across the state, windward areas have only seen a few hundredths to a couple of tenths of an inch over the same period. Strong high pressure centered far north of the state will continue to drive breezy to windy trades across the region through the weekend. The typical windier areas across Maui County and the Big Island continue to flirt with Wind Advisory conditions this afternoon, with a few sites touching 30 mph sustained at times and consistently gusting to 40 mph. Elsewhere, winds have been around 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. Looking aloft, Hawaii will remain under weak ridging through early next week as it lies between two upper-level lows, one to the east, the other to the west. The breezy to windy trades will generally focus clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas throughout the period. However, batches of deep tropical moisture will move across the area Wednesday night through Friday night, again Sunday into Monday, and more will follow next week. As these batches of deeper moisture move through with precipitable water values reaching 1.5 to 2 inches, the inversion will weaken and lift, increasing shower coverage and frequency across the state. In addition to the potential for an uptick in shower activity, dew points will be on the rise, leading to muggier conditions through the weekend. && .AVIATION... Issued at 348 PM HST Tue Jul 7 2026 Breezy to windy trades will continue through Wednesday and bring low clouds and scattered showers predominately to windward and mountain areas. There will also be isolated spillover into leeward sites. VFR will prevail for most sites, with occasional localized MVFR mainly for windward/mountain sites associated with the stronger showers. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 PM HST Tue Jul 7 2026 Strong high pressure remains centered north of the state, which is driving fresh to strong trade winds across all coastal waters. An advanced scatterometer (ASCAT) pass from late morning revealed that these winds are still in place over large portions of the area, and although winds may shift a bit more easterly and ease slightly, decided to continue the Small Craft Advisory through tonight. A few zones may be drop out of the SCA by Wednesday, but most areas are likely to see an extension in time of the SCA through the next several days. A moderate, medium- to long-period south southwest (190-200 degrees) swell continues to generate moderate surf below advisory criteria along south facing shores. This swell energy will gradually lower through the remainder of the week. Expect small surf for south facing shores leading into this weekend, with mainly background energy. Another moderate, long-period south southwest swell (210-220 degrees) is expected to fill in Sunday, but due to the direction of the source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell. Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. A small, moderate period west (280 degrees) swell is expected to arrive this weekend and linger into early next week. No significant swells are expected out of the north or northwest. Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the second half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel. && $$ UPDATE...Walsh DISCUSSION...Farris AVIATION...Parker MARINE...Vaughan  123 FXUS65 KBOI 080607 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1207 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, mainly across the higher terrain of eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho south of the Snake Basin. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday across the higher terrain of central and southern Idaho. - Storms may produce strong gusty outflow winds, possibly moving through the Treasure and Magic Valleys today and Wednesday. - Hot temperatures through the week and into the weekend. - Breezy winds each afternoon, especially Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 245 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026 Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring monsoon moisture to the area today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected along the NV border this afternoon and south of the Snake Basin in Idaho. Isolated thunderstorms possible near Baker County this afternoon and evening too. Dry low levels support shower and thunderstorm outflow wind gusts up to 40-60 mph. Storms will lift northeast off the higher terrain south of the Snake River and weaken as they enter the Snake River Valley. However, gusty outflow winds are possible as storms dissipate in both the Treasure and Magic valleys late this afternoon and evening, with around a 10-20% chance of storms holding together into the valleys. An upper level trough moving into British Columbia on Wednesday will begin to push moisture to the east. This will limit the chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain of southern and central Idaho, although thunderstorms and outflow gusts may also drift north into the Magic Valley. A weak, dry cold front will move through Wednesday night and Thursday pushing the lingering moisture and thunderstorm threat to the east. Temperatures will remain steady on Wednesday, then cool a few degrees Thursday behind the front. The front will bring gusty winds to the area Wednesday night, continuing into Thursday across southern Idaho with gusts 20-35 mph. Low humidity with gusty winds will increase fire weather concerns. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 245 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026 High pressure aloft will begin to develop over the Great Basin come Friday, before expanding east over the Rocky Mountains and the High Plains. A trough over southeast Alaska will help keep our area under southwest flow aloft and the hottest temperatures to the east. However, lower elevation temperatures will still rise to the upper 90s/near triple digits throughout the long- term period. These temperatures will result in widespread moderate with localized major HeatRisk for this weekend into early next week. Each afternoon will feature breezy winds across higher terrain, with gusts to 20-30 mph. Come Monday, monsoonal moisture will begin to work around the ridge and across our area. The Grand Ensemble continues to show a strong signal for this moisture, with precipitable water values increasing to near the 95th percentile of climatology by Monday afternoon. With moisture values that high, the flash flood risk will have to be monitored (especially across recently burned areas), as the threat of showers and thunderstorms increases come Monday/Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1204 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 Mainly VFR. Isolated showers/thunderstorms in far E Oregon and SW Idaho, dissipating by Wed/08Z. Scattered storms return Wed afternoon mainly across SW Idaho. Storms capable of 30-50 kt outflows, brief heavy rain, and blowing dust. Localized terrain obscuration from wildfire smoke. High density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds outside of storms: variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable or SW 5-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Potential for outflow wind gusts 15-25 kt and light rain before Wed/08Z due to dissipating storms. Then, a 30% chance of shower/thunderstorm outflows (30-50 kt) reaching KBOI after Wed/23Z. Visibility reductions due to nearby wildfire smoke, with foothills obscured. High density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds: light and variable, transitioning to SE-E 5-12 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL over KBOI: W-S 10-20 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-426. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....NF  348 FXUS64 KFWD 080610 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 110 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms are expected this afternoon mainly east of I-35. Strong winds will be the main threat with any storms. - Hot and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with low storm chances returning across the region by this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Water vapor imagery indicates that a persistent weakness in the mid level heights associated with a slow moving trough is still present from the Ozarks southward into the Arklatex and East Texas early this morning, although drier air has nudged eastward. This is supported by the GOES PW imagery which indicates a notable push of drier air into our western counties mainly west of I-35. This intrusion of drier air is indicative of mid level ridging expanding back eastward and will eventually nudge our weak upper trough out of the region by Thursday. Until then, weak low level convergence will be sufficient to generate isolated convection across the region again today and particularly this afternoon. Radar and satellite trends over the last hour suggest this weak convergence is working on a moist boundary layer featuring modest instability and weak capping as more convective cloud features are noted in IR imagery. As a result, we'll likely see some scattered showers/storms through the early morning hours mainly across our northeast counties. This will continue to be the favored area for additional storms this afternoon with coverage expected to be less than the last couple of days. We'll keep PoPs confined to areas east of I-35 this afternoon with rain chances capped at around 20%. Increasing mid level heights will lead to another hot day with most areas west of I-35 at or slightly above 100 degrees. Areas to the east will be in the mid/upper 90s. Any convective activity should decrease in coverage through the early evening hours. Similar to the last few days though, deep boundary layer mixing and generally high cloud bases will support a few strong wind gusts with any storms this afternoon and evening. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Ridging will briefly expand eastward on Thursday and Friday keeping things hot and dry across the region. Highs will top out at or just above 100 degrees both days, but troughing will become more amplified over the eastern CONUS during this time and a diffuse frontal boundary will sag south through the Plains by Saturday. We'll likely stay dry through Saturday with the exception of some isolated sea breeze storms to the south spreading into our far southern counties during the late afternoon/evening hours. Meanwhile, our upper ridge will amplify and strengthen to 600dm over the Intermountain West late Saturday into Sunday as it spreads into the Central and Northern Plains early next week. This would put North Texas on the southern periphery of the stronger ridge to the north and weaker ridging over the southeastern Gulf. This mid level deformation zone between the two ridges would feature a moisture rich easterly and southerly flow pattern and may serve as an area of weak frontogenesis in an east/west band from northern Louisiana into North Texas. While often not significant in terms of temperature gradient, these focused areas of moisture convergence in the summer within an environment that is moisture rich and modestly unstable can feature extended periods of convective development within the bands of strongest ascent beyond the typical diurnally driven convective cycle. The latest ECMWF guidance, and to a lesser extent the GFS, hints at this scenario with an east/west oriented band of modest QPF through early next week. While we certainly don't want to overhype rain chances during an extended period of hot and dry weather, it will be something we'll need to monitor going into the weekend and early next week given at least a low potential for heavy rainfall. For now, we'll show steadily increasing rain chances late Saturday night through Monday with the highest rain chances (~40-60%) on Monday. Along with increased cloud cover, we'll see temperatures drop a few degrees Sunday through Tuesday. Dunn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with generally southerly winds around 10 kt. These winds will increase a bit this afternoon and tonight. There is a low chance for thunderstorms this afternoon with the bulk of the convective activity expected to be to the east of the major airports. We'll leave any mention of TS out of the current TAF based on the latest trends in observational data. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 80 100 79 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 99 77 100 78 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 95 75 97 76 / 20 0 0 0 Denton 100 78 100 78 / 10 0 0 0 McKinney 98 78 99 78 / 20 0 0 0 Dallas 99 81 101 81 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 97 77 99 77 / 20 0 0 0 Corsicana 97 76 99 77 / 20 10 0 0 Temple 99 75 99 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 100 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  530 FXUS61 KBTV 080613 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 213 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes have been made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Tranquil weather will continue across the region today, with showers and some thunderstorms likely Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the region. 2. Seasonably warm and dry heading into the weekend. Shower chances return to start next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Other than some overnight fog in some of the more favored locations, tranquil weather is expected to prevail across the region today. High temperatures will climb into the 80s areawide this afternoon, with plenty of sunshine expected throughout the day. The period of active weather continues to be Thursday afternoon and evening as showers and thunderstorms develop across the region as a cold front moves through the region. SPC has placed the northern portion of the region in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, meaning isolated severe storms are possible. The most favorable conditions for any thunderstorm develop look to be along the International Border, where more favorable instability and shear are expected. Some of the latest CAM guidance shows about 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across the region. Model soundings show the potential for some heavy rainfall with any storms that do develop, with warm cloud depths over 10kft and favorable CAPE profiles, however it looks to be a fairly narrow band of anomalously deep moisture and things should be moving enough to limit impacts. The cold front looks to shift southward overnight Thursday into Friday, with drier conditions expected across the region by the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind a cold front on Friday, drier air aloft will advect from the northwest lending to a comfortable, seasonably warm weekend. Saturday will be the pick of the weekend with cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and lower dewpoints in the low 50s. A brisk north wind to around 10-20 MPH will bring a slight bite to the air Saturday afternoon, especially in the Champlain Valley. By Sunday, temperatures start to rebound back to the mid to upper 80s, with a positively tilted long wave trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic. A cutoff low will dive south from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday as ridging slides south from Canada. Dry air in the mid to upper levels should shunt much of the precipitation to our south, but some shower activity in southern Vermont along the northern periphery of the system, due to advective southerly flow, cannot be ruled out. Models then become spread on a system heading into next week. A weak cold front is expected to slide south early next week as surface high pressure somewhat breaks down over southern New England. Model timing remains large with the GFS ensembles depicting a more delayed frontal passage closer to Tuesday into Wednesday due to a more persistent ridge and dry air keeping the front at bay. The Euro ensembles are a bit faster with a Monday into Tuesday frontal passage with a faster ridge departure. Depending on the timing of the front, instability for stronger storms could be possible as the front will coincide with a strengthening jet streak and associated LLJ, in addition to decent frontogenesis in the low to mid levels. Regardless of timing, high temperatures and dewpoints look unlikely early next week as the front will help to reduce any threat of extreme heat or humidity. Furthermore, precipitation chances Monday through Wednesday are trending up along the International Border, though the southward extent of any shower activity as the front sags south, remains uncertain with dry air in place. Notably cooler and drier air looks to follow behind the front into mid to late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Fog has begun to develop in the Connecticut River due to the rainfall we saw yesterday. RUT has already gone to IFR with fog around the terminal, however, due to southeast flow, expectations are that the terminal should bounce between IFR and MVFR, and perhaps up to VFR at times through 10Z, with some slow improvements back to prevailing VFR by 13Z based on NAM3 soundings. MPV may also see fog, though later between 08-11Z due to already achieving their crossover temperature. There are some low stratus clouds moving across the Adirondacks that may contribute to limited fog, however, GOES 19 satellite already depicts some fog moving north up the White River Valley. The aforementioned low stratus should hold off any fog at SLK for a few hours, but brief nearby BCFG with MVFR vsbys cannot be ruled out near sunrise as these clouds drift east and thin. Elsewhere, clear skies will persist though the rest of tonight and into the daylight hours today with some fair weather cumulus to 4000- 6000ft agl. Light, under 10 knot, winds will turn westerly during the day today then become southerly after sunset. A lake breeze will be possible at BTV/PBG this afternoon as well. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer DISCUSSION...Kremer/Danzig AVIATION...Danzig  806 FXUS61 KBOX 080616 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 216 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters has been extended until 8 pm this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm today with sea breezes possible along the east coast. - Becoming warmer with increasing humidity Thursday and Friday. Chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly on Friday. - Much drier and cooler this upcoming weekend as a cooler airmass settles in. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1... Dry and warm today with sea breezes possible along the east coast. High pressure settles in for Wednesday with dry and clear conditions building in for the entire CWA by the afternoon. Could see some lingering patches of fog along the Cape and Islands with some patchy low level moisture. Expecting any fog to quickly mix out this morning with mid level RH values falling to 5-10%. Expect a dry and clear day with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Winds will be light out of the N/NW with sea breezes possible along the east coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Becoming warmer with increasing humidity Thursday and Friday. Chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly on Friday. Broad WSW flow brings warmer and increasingly humid conditions Thursday and Friday. The warm and humid airmass pairs with a weak disturbance arriving from the Ohio Valley to bring a risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly to portions of Southern New England later Thursday into Thursday night. CSU machine learning probs still highlight the greatest chance for severe weather over the Mid Atlantic Ensemble guidance continues to show a better potential for thunderstorms on Friday with a cold front moving into southern New England later in the day. the front moves into a moist unstable airmass marked by dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. In terms of instability, the NBM shows a 40-60% chance for CAPE values >1000J/kg across the interior. That said, the risk of severe weather is still quite low with poor middle-tropospheric lapse rates leading to tall-skinny CAPE profiles and deep layer shear in the 30 kt range. Higher confidence in warm, humid weather both days with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, supporting heat indices in the mid 90s to mid/upper 90s, more likely falling short of heat headlines. KEY MESSAGE 3...Much drier and cooler this upcoming weekend as a cooler airmass settles in. For the weekend the 500 mb pattern transitions to one of cyclonic flow/troughing in the mean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to mid 80s) and lower humidity levels. Weekend appears favorable for outdoor plans with nice summer weather. We'll be on the western periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge of nearly 600 dm building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We could have to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the ridge but it looks as though the weekend ends up drier than not. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Wednesday: High confidence in trends but moderate on timing. Lingering sub-VFR ceilings and areas BR for BOS, PVD and the lift through 14z, and around 16z on the Cape. VFR thereafter. Northerly winds around 5 kt, but possible late-day seabreeze at BOS, after 19z if it develops. Wednesday night...High confidence. VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Majority of the rain has ended but areas of -DZ are possible thru 10z. Ceilings will be slowly lifting but not likely to go full VFR until mid- morning Wed. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday Night...High confidence. SCA conditions continue in the the coastal waters through the day today with NE wind gusts around 25 kts. Conditions improve overnight into Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. A weak front approaches the region later Thursday with showers and thunderstorms possible over the southern waters. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250- 254-255. && $$ DISCUSSION...FT AVIATION...FT MARINE...FT  834 FXUS65 KGGW 080618 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1218 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures expected today with mainly dry weather. - Look for chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight mainly in the west. - Expect highs to reach the 90s Friday with the hot weather continuing into next week. Highs in most areas are expected to above 100 on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A few isolated showers will linger early this morning in the east. With heavy rain no longer expected, the Flood Watch for parts of NE Montana has been cancelled. A shortwave ridge today will bring dry weather to the region with warmer temperatures. A shortwave trough moves through the area tonight with chances for showers and thunderstorms along and west of MT 13. Upper ridge builds into Montana on Thursday and remain over the area in varying degrees into next week. Look for hot and mainly dry weather for the next several days. At this point, it looks like some areas will have highs near 100 on Saturday and most areas will have highs above 100 on Sunday. Excessive heat products are likely for this weekend based on the current forecast highs. Monday and beyond are expected to be not as hot with highs mainly in the 90s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Tweaks were made for near term pops mainly for consistency and collaboration. Low confidence on shower and thunderstorm chances tonight. High confidence on the hot weather coming this weekend. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: Wednesday July 8 at 0600Z FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR - IFR this morning, VFR this afternoon and tonight. DISCUSSION: Low clouds are expected over NE Montana this morning that will bring MVFR and IFR ceilings at times until 16z. Skies will clear by late morning with scattered daytime cumulus expected this afternoon. Mid level clouds are expected tonight with a chance of showers and thunderstorms at times at KGGW and KOLF and areas to the west. WIND: East winds will 5 to 10 knots will become light and variable early this morning and remain variable at 10 knots or less today and tonight. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  867 FXUS66 KHNX 080619 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1119 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir and Lake Isabella through 11 PM PDT Thursday, July 9. Beware of unsettled waters. 2. Slow but steady warmup this week, with widespread Moderate Heat Risk by the weekend and isolated areas of Major Heat Risk. 3. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will create elevated fire risk, particularly in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties. 4. Increased chance for Sierra Nevada thunderstorms late this weekend into Monday with monsoonal moisture pushing into our region. 5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... Zonal synoptic flow has set up over much of California, with the region caught between a low pressure system to the north off the coast of British Columbia and an area of high pressure centered over the Four Corners region of the southwestern US. The current flow is resulting in seasonal conditions over the area, being clear and dry with temperatures around average. These conditions will continue for Wednesday before the high pressure gradually slides westward over southern California. The rising pressure will also cascade over central California, raising temperatures into the triple digits for the San Joaquin Valley as early as Thursday, though probabilities are more likely (70 to 80 percent) on Friday and Saturday. The warming temperatures will be linked to a drying trend across the area, with minimum relative humidity expected between 15 and 20 percent across the Central Valley Thursday through Sunday. Lower minimums are expected for the Sierra Nevada and Kern Desert at 5 to 10 percent. A tighter pressure gradient on Thursday will bring occasional breezy winds for the valley areas, but will keep stronger gusts going at San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella, and in the Mojave Desert Slopes. These gusts will gradually wane into the weekend as the high pressure begins to erode. In the latter part of the weekend and into early next week, a low pressure trough will push into the Pacific Northwest, nudging the aforementioned high pressure eastward over the Great Basin. This will turn the prevailing flow over central California to the southeast, maintaining and potentially rising temperatures into the low 100s for the lower elevations. An influx of monsoon moisture will also accompany the warm-up, and will result in chances for thunderstorms, mainly across the Sierra Nevada starting Monday. This is due to the moisture rising and condensing as it interacts with the elevated terrain in the region. Current chances for thunderstorms in the Sierra sit at 20 to 30 percent for both Monday and Tuesday of next week. As we get further into next week, the ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin appears likely to retrograde westwards, strengthening again over California and raising temperatures back to around five degrees above season averages. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warmer and drier conditions are expected for the region through the weekend due to high pressure building in from the southwest. As stated above, minimum relative humidity values for the Central Valley will be around 15 to 20 percent Thursday through Saturday, with values between 5 and 15 percent for the Sierra Nevada and the Mojave Desert. Values in the foothill areas are expected around 20 percent. These minRH values will improve slightly in the lower elevations early next week, and dramatically around 40 to 50 percent in the Sierra Nevada due to monsoonal moisture moving into the region. However, the moisture adds risk for thunderstorms across the higher elevations which could result in new fire starts on cured fuels. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ300-332. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy weather.gov/hanford  893 FXUS61 KPBZ 080620 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 220 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The chances for showers and thunderstorms have decreased over the upcoming weekend. Otherwise no major changes to the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Morning fog, then mainly dry with limited convection potential today 2) Unsettled pattern through Friday, with lesser chances for showers/storms over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated showers continue early this morning along a boundary from Armstrong to Forest counties. These should gradually end with waning instability. Otherwise, with low level moisture in place, areas of fog and stratus are expected again early this morning. This should mix out after sunrise. Expect most of the day to be dry for much of the area today under flat ridging and capping warmth aloft. Surface convergence near a weakening surface boundary could result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially east of Pittsburgh. Precipitable water is progged to be lower than recent days, ranging from 1.2 to 1.4 inches east of Pittsburgh, though the flow aloft is weak. Expect any flood potential to be very low and localized. KEY MESSAGE 2... A shortwave trough is expected to advance out of the Midwest tonight, approaching and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region late tonight into Thursday. An increase in showers and thunderstorms is expected. The most numerous coverage is expected to be south of Pittsburgh, where the best moisture and upper level support is progged. Shear is expected to be around 20kt, with ML CAPE ranging from around 500 j/kg north of I-80, to around 1200 j/kg south of I-70. This should result in a limited potential for severe weather. Another, stronger shortwave is progged for a Friday passage. Maintained categorical POPs for showers and thunderstorms. Instability should be limited with existing cloud cover through the day, though precipitable water is expected to increase. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Current NBM probabilities of 1 inch of rain range from 35 to near 50 percent. A surface boundary is progged to set up across the Lower Ohio Valley on Saturday into Sunday. This will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast, with the highest POPs south of PIT. The overall severe weather and flood potential is expected to be low over the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect conditions to deteriorate to IFR for most sites by early morning as fog and stratus develop with low level moisture in place. These conditions should gradually improve through the morning as mixing begins after sunrise. The CU rule and model soundings indicate a broken cumulus layer is likely through the day, though cigs heights should be in the VFR category. Convergence along a surface boundary could result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms east of PIT this afternoon. Maintained a prob 30 mention for LBE, MGW and DUJ for this potential. Elsewhere, capping warmth aloft should preclude a TAF mention at this time. Expect partial clearing tonight, as convection wanes. Outlook... Patchy morning fog and stratus is possible again Thursday morning, with restrictions in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing from Thursday morning through the rest of the day. More widespread showers and possible thunderstorms are expected Friday with a crossing shortwave. Additional morning fog and stratus is possible through the weekend, with shower/thunderstorm potential mainly south of PIT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM  159 FXUS62 KTAE 080622 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 222 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Rain chances decrease some the next few days but a typical summer time pattern remains. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures expected throughout the week. Heat advisory conditions likely across the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The western Atlantic ridge begins to exert its influence on the sensible weather today as it builds west. Drier mid-level air rotating in from the south and southeast should keep our POPs lower across the eastern Florida Big Bend and into portions of Georgia. Elsewhere, across the Florida Panhandle and western Florida Big Bend, favorable seabreeze convergence should at least help keep isolated to scattered shower and storm activity around. With the ridge building, we should see temperatures climb a few degrees, especially across our eastern zones where POPs are lower. With this in mind, have issued a heat advisory for these areas. While heat indices across much of the area touch or slightly exceed 108, we have not issued a heat advisory for the entire forecast area. The main arguments against one across the Panhandle and parts of the Big Bend were the higher rain chances, and which will provide relief in the afternoon. For tonight, rain chances drop off after sunset but like the last few days, late overnight isolated showers/storms can't be ruled out along/near the coastal regions on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Rain chances will likely become more isolated Thursday and Friday as the upper level ridge remains prominent. A few weak shortwaves moving north of the ridge could help spawn better chances inland across our AL/GA counties. Additionally, some heat advisory concerns could continue. By the weekend rain chances will slowly increase as the Western Atlantic ridge becomes suppressed by several impulses moving down the eastern side of an expansive upper level ridge across the western US. By next week rain chances could return to above normal levels as an active pattern sets up on the southern periphery of the large upper level ridge across the northern US. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Yet another round of thunderstorms expected this TAF period with ECP first to be impacted early this morning, then TLH in the aftn. Other terminals look to experience spotty convective coverage. Thunder is mentioned at ECP/TLH/VLD and kept the mention out of DHN/ABY where confidence is lowest. Otherwise, VFR conds prevail away from thunderstorms amidst SW winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through Thursday, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Relatively low fire weather concerns, outside of higher dispersions across southwest Georgia counties, will prevail the next few days. Afternoon humidities will be in the 40 to 50% range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon with coverage decreasing the rest of the week, with only isolated storms possible Thursday and Friday. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest through the period but localized increases across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons. Main concerns outside fire weather will be heat indices possibly reaching advisory criteria today with pockets reaching near 110 F. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A typical summertime pattern will remain in place today but lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely by the end of the week. Widespread rainfall amounts of less than an inch are forecast with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. No flooding is expected, although rainfall amounts will increase again by early next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 76 95 75 / 50 10 20 0 Panama City 92 81 92 80 / 30 20 20 10 Dothan 95 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 0 Albany 95 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 0 Valdosta 96 76 97 75 / 10 10 10 0 Cross City 95 77 96 76 / 10 0 10 0 Apalachicola 90 81 90 80 / 20 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ018-019-028-029-034-118-128-134. High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ114. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ124>131-144>148-158>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  194 FXUS63 KGRB 080623 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 123 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms along with heavy rain possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across central and east-central Wisconsin. Damaging winds and localized flooding will be the main threats, but small hail and an isolated tornado are also possible. - Continue to monitor the potential for excessive heat early next week as high temperatures rise into the low to middle 90s on Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A complex of thunderstorms across Minnesota was working into northwest WI early this morning. There have been a few warnings with this complex so far. This complex is expected to move into north-central WI between 09z-12z and across far northeast WI after 12z. Several models continue to show convection developing south of the current cluster of storms towards 12z that could impact locations south of Highway 29. Previous forecast had pops, thus not much change in this area. Later this morning into the afternoon, several solutions to contend with that leave some questions in how widespread severe weather will be. This was seen in the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Outlook that has shifted the Slight Risk (Level 2) is little further south. The latest HRRR would support the morning convection south of Highway 29 with another complex developing along and south of the Highway 29 corridor later this afternoon, between 2 pm and 4 pm west of the Fox Valley, and from 4 pm to 7 pm for Green Bay and the Fox Valley east to the lakeshore. Bufkit soundings indicated 1,000 to 2,000 J/KG of CAPE and 0-6 km shear values around 30 knots to support severe storms. Strong/damaging winds and heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding are the main risk. Small hail and an isolated tornado are also possible. Showers and scattered storms will continue tonight, ending across the north late. Showers and a few storms will continue across east-central WI through the night into Thursday. The chances of showers and storms continue into Thursday afternoon across central and east-central WI, although severe weather is not expected. Dry conditions expected this weekend into early next week. 500mb ridge building across the central United States early next week will bring well above normal temperatures along the potential for excessive heat and heat related impacts as high temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to middle 90s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected late this evening, with increasing mid and high clouds. Some patchy fog may develop for a time as dewpoints remain the mid 60s in spots. As a cold front slowly sags into the region, clusters of showers and storms and lower clouds are likely to impact the region from 09Z-16Z, with an additional round(s) Wednesday afternoon/evening. Continued to use TEMPO groups at all TAF sites to highlight the greatest potential for storms, but timing details will need to be fine-tuned as exact timing of the storms becomes clearer. MVFR ceilings and visibilities (locally IFR) will be possible within the shower/storm activity. Lingering showers and a few storms are expected Wednesday evening. Winds will remain mainly under 5 kts overnight, then become south to southwest Wednesday morning, with a few gusts around 15 kts. Winds will shift to the north and become variable Wednesday afternoon and evening behind the front. Fog is likely late Wednesday evening into early Thursday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Eckberg AVIATION.......Bersch  294 FXUS61 KRNK 080625 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No headlines are expected, but storms today are still capable of localized flash flooding and damaging winds. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding. A frontal boundary stretches from west to east across the forecast area this morning and remain in the vicinity today. This boundary, along with an approaching upper wave will provide enough forcing for scattered afternoon storms to develop. Although shear remains nearly non existent, a very moist and unstable airmass in place should support a few strong multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Flash flooding remains a concern as well...Precipitable Water values still around 2" and a potential for training/backbuilding storms will persist into late this evening. Storms will begin to lessen by midnight. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the beginning of next week. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and roughly westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. This front will be the focus for daily threat of showers/storms with greatest coverage from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the front essentially stalling over the area, will have to contend with a multi-day threat for localized heavy rain and marginally severe storms. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes early Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for Friday and Saturday, with the front passing south of the region on Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal for the middle of July, and widespread excessive heat is not forecast to return, at least for this part of the country. The ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is shifting west over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expecting some vsby restriction to develop by sunrise this morning. Low level moisture, along with partly clear skies should aid in fog develop over the next few hours. This fog will likely impact most terminals at least through 12Z/8AM. Once fog lifts, will have mostly VFR across the area. Afternoon storms possible again today, mainly from 17z through 00z time frame, with the potential of a few lingering beyond that period. Storms will be capable of very heavy rain and erratic gusty winds. In general expect light winds (under 5kts). EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Potentially drier early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/PM AVIATION...BMG/PM  620 FXUS64 KMRX 080628 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day. - Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning. - A wet pattern will likely be in place this weekend and may pose a more widespread flooding threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The latest surface analysis shows that the boundary to our north has moved into the region and is over Northern Tennessee stretching back to a low in Arkansas. In the upper levels, a weak cut-off low or trough remains just to our west centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley today. This trough will slowly drift eastward into our region by Thursday. Showers and storms have mostly dissipated and it should remain quiet through the early morning hours according to the NBM and CAMs. Patchy fog is likely through the early morning hours mainly in locations that received a lot of rain the last couple of days. By this afternoon, showers and storms will return with that boundary still lurking somewhere nearby and a trough just to the west. HRRR has isolated convection this afternoon but the rest of the CAMs look more scattered. NBM suggests isolated coverage in the Valley and more scattered in the higher terrain. Isolated flooding issues will be possible again today. PWAT values may be a tad lower today closer to 1.5 inches but steering flow will still be westerly and parallel to the boundary. Therefore, some training may occur. A few strong storms may produce some gusty winds with good instability and DCAPE values but the threat is too low for the SPC outlook. Another round of widespread showers and storms are expected on Thursday as the trough moves closer and remnants of the surface boundary linger. Friday through the weekend a trough will be over the Eastern U.S. and a ridge will be building into the Central U.S. A series of minor waves moving through the pattern will bring multiple rounds of showers and storms possibly into the night. Friday through Saturday may pose a higher flood risk with high rain rates due to deep moisture and good instability. The wet pattern will continue through at least Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main impact again through the night and early morning hours will be fog development, which has already been seen in and around TRI. At least temporary reductions to LIFR have been maintained for TRI with MVFR or less likely at TYS. However, the overall fog potential looks lower than last night. Throughout the day, a return to VFR is expected area-wide with near westerly winds. Scattered showers and storms are likely again with PROB30s added in at TYS and TRI. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 72 90 73 / 30 20 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 71 88 72 / 40 40 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 88 71 / 60 30 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 85 68 / 30 60 70 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...BW  835 FXUS62 KGSP 080630 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 230 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Highs trending cooler Sunday into Monday with cold air damming expected to develop. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday before cooler and less humid conditions return Sunday into early next week. Those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. 2. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected across mainly western North Carolina through Friday before a cold front brings better shower and thunderstorm chances back area-wide this weekend into Monday. A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible during peak heating hours each day through Friday, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday before cooler and less humid conditions return Sunday into early next week. Those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. Hot and humid conditions linger through Saturday east of the mountains as the western periphery of the Bermuda High lingers over the western Atlantic. Despite highs east of the mountains climbing into the low to mid 90s each day, dewpoints are expected to mix out each afternoon keeping heat indices below advisory criteria (<105 degrees). Breezy SW/W winds will develop each afternoon/early evening east of the mountains with gusts expected to remain well below advisory criteria, ranging from 15-25 mph. Breezy winds will allow for some relief from the humid airmass each day. Temperatures will end up around 4-7 degrees above normal area wide through Saturday thanks to low-level flow being mainly W/SW'ly. The Bermuda High gets nudged farther south as a cold front tracks across the region this weekend, bringing a cooler and less humid airmass behind it Sunday into early next week. Cold air damming looks to develop in the wake of the front late this weekend into early next week as surface high pressure builds over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. CAD may allow highs to actually fall below normal on both Sunday and Monday, which we won't complain about for mid- July and could definitely use after the last week. Key message 2: Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected across mainly western North Carolina through Friday before a cold front brings better shower and thunderstorm chances back area- wide this weekend into Monday. A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible during peak heating hours each day through Friday, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop. Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue across mainly western North Carolina through Friday. Some activity could develop across the South Carolina Upstate and northeast Georgia depending on how outflow boundaries propagate the next few afternoons. Per usual, a few strong, sub-severe storms are possible during peak heating hours with the severe storm potential expected to remain isolated. The main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop is damaging wind gusts from microbursts thanks to weak deep layer shear and decent destabilization expected each afternoon. Better shower and thunderstorm chances return area-wide this weekend into Monday ahead of and along a cold front. Although deep layer shear will be slightly better, cloud cover along with cooler temperatures (especially on Sunday andMonday due to CAD developing) could limit destabilization. Thus, confidence on the severe weather potential with this front is low. Drier conditions should return by Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into the region behind the departing front. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR outside of morning fog/stratus and afternoon/evening TSRA. Fog and stratus have already developed across portions of the mountain valleys this morning and will continue to spread and thicken through daybreak. KHKY could also see fog and stratus develop through daybreak but confidence is lower compared to KAVL. Any fog/stratus that develops will lift around or shortly after sunrise. TSRA should remain more isolated this afternoon and evening, with the NC terminals have the best chance to see activity develop. Thus, went with PROB30s for TSRA and associated restrictions late this afternoon into early this evening at KAVL, KHKY, and KCLT. The SC terminals should remain dry today. Calm to light and VRB winds will linger through the early morning hours before picking up out of the SW east of the mountains and mainly NW at KAVL. Wind speeds will gradually increase throughout the day across most terminals with speeds ranging from 5-12 kts. However, lighter winds are expected at KAVL and KHKY. Low-end gusts may develop across the SC terminals this afternoon/early evening. Lighter winds return tonight with wind direction turning more WSW east of the mountains. Outlook: The NC terminals will have the best potential to see TSRA each afternoon and evening through Friday. SHRA/TSRA chances return for all terminals this weekend into Monday. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in locations that see appreciable rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ AR  149 FXUS61 KGYX 080633 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 233 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Rain moves away from the coast, with a warm up getting underway today. 2. Return to above average temperatures during the latter half of the work week with increasing humidity. Thunderstorm chances increase Thursday afternoon onward. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Rain continues to move away from the coast this morning as low pressure tracks out to sea. Broad high pressure gradually builds in from the west through the daytime, bringing abundant sunshine. With the sunshine, temps rise into the 80s across most of the area today. A seabreeze is expected along the coast during the afternoon hours, knocking temps back into the 70s this afternoon. A quiet night is expected with lows generally bottoming out in the 60s. As dew points continue to creep up with the warming airmass, nighttime valley fog is likely again tonight through the northern valleys and the CT River Valley. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A typical summertime pattern is expected mid to late week as temperatures warm into the middle to upper 80s with a few spots approaching the 90 degree mark. The warmest day looks to be Thursday with dew points climbing into the middle to upper 60s. This may result in afternoon heat indices to approach 95F for a couple of hours, mainly across southern NH. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible, especially across the mtns and towards the Canadian Border as a cold front sags southward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible on Friday with high temperatures roughly 5 degrees cooler than those of Thursday but it will remain humid. Temperatures look to largely remain near or a bit above avg this weekend into early next week with typical diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms possible at times. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Rain moves away from southern NH terminals, with IFR to MVFR ceilings improving to VFR toward daybreak along the coast. RKD likely takes until late morning to return to VFR. LEB and HIE likely see a period of nighttime valley fog clear by mid morning. VFR then prevails today, but valley fog will be possible again tonight at these same terminals. VFR likely prevails elsewhere tonight. Outlook: Thursday-Sunday: Mainly VFR conditions expected with TEMPO restrictions possible at times within scattered SHRA/-TSRA, especially during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Seas lower below SCA levels across the southern waters through daybreak. Fair conditions return as high pressure gradually builds across the waters today and low pressure exits the Gulf of Maine. Fair conditions continue tonight. Seas outside of the bays may approach 5 ft Thursday PM but otherwise winds and seas will likely largely remain below SCA criteria through early next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Clair/Tubbs  414 FXUS64 KEWX 080637 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 137 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Lowering rain chances Wednesday and Thursday, but increasing again Friday through at least the weekend. - Daytime heat mainly in the 90s continues into next week with heat index values reaching into the 100-105 range for many areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A weak shear axis over TX is connecting two synoptic scale lows, one to the SW over Mexico and the other to the NE over the mid Mississippi valley. These two anchors are pulling opposite each other, but there was still enough shear and pooled moisture to give pretty good coverage of rainfall, especially over areas S of Highway 90. This looks to be a slight over achievement versus what was expected, and this has us looking at a few stray coastal showers or storms in the daytime for Wednesday despite low PoPs by the majority of solutions. We still saw a good bit of heating and temperatures were mostly in line with projections despite the added cloud cover. Therefore, we should still expect a healthy dose of summer heat for today, regardless of whether the skies get cloud-filled or not. Thursday will also reflect the steady hot days with not enough shear aloft to generate significant rain chances. But thanks to the overachieving rain events over the spring and so far this summer, the summer heat has mostly been curbed by weakly dominant subtropical ridging over TX and enough moisture in the soil and vegetation to keep most areas away from those triple digits. The apparent temperature isn't holding back, and there continue to be daily areas getting into the 100s up to 105. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday starts the transition to increasing moisture as a disturbance/inverted trough over the southwestern Gulf lifts northward and brings a good chance for showers and storms back into the picture for the weekend. PWATs will surge into the 2-2.25" range at times this weekend, and some of the models are showing a pretty active area over the eastern half Friday afternoon. Despite the added moisture, the summer heat isn't expected to pull back much, but perhaps the ambient temps might dip a few degrees. Model timing has been inconsistent, leading to some related inconsistency in the model blends. Given that this moisture could be enough to trigger new activity at most if not all hours of the day, we'll mainly favor 30 to 50 type PoPs this weekend, and hopefully get better timing signals as more hi res and rapid refresh model data comes into the picture. Going into the work week the upper ridge strengthens, but is centered well north of TX. Thus we could wind up with multiple days of tropical rain chances or at least some air-mass daytime convection going into the middle of the week. Daytime highs remain on a plateau with most areas seeing low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Monitoring a cluster of rain and storm activity in the Rio Grande Plains that is living northward but this cluster is expected to weaken over the next few hours with no impacts across the TAF sites. Otherwise, skies are beginning mostly clear but few to bkn low clouds develop later overnight into this morning. Some MVFR ceilings could develop at the San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF), otherwise looks to remain VFR at KAUS and KDRT. VFR flight conditions return to all sites by mid-morning and mainly remain through the end of the TAF period. Light to moderate winds are expected, primarily coming out of the south and/or southeast. Highest gusts could reach into the 20 to 25 kt range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 97 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 76 96 77 / 10 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 96 74 95 73 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 77 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 94 73 94 74 / 10 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 95 75 95 76 / 10 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...62  481 FXUS64 KEWX 080638 CCA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 138 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Lowering rain chances Wednesday and Thursday, but increasing again Friday through at least the weekend. - Daytime heat mainly in the 90s continues into next week with heat index values reaching into the 100-105 range for many areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A weak shear axis over TX is connecting two synoptic scale lows, one to the SW over Mexico and the other to the NE over the mid Mississippi valley. These two anchors are pulling opposite each other, but there was still enough shear and pooled moisture to give pretty good coverage of rainfall, especially over areas S of Highway 90. This looks to be a slight over achievement versus what was expected, and this has us looking at a few stray coastal showers or storms in the daytime for Wednesday despite low PoPs by the majority of solutions. We still saw a good bit of heating and temperatures were mostly in line with projections despite the added cloud cover. Therefore, we should still expect a healthy dose of summer heat for today, regardless of whether the skies get cloud-filled or not. Thursday will also reflect the steady hot days with not enough shear aloft to generate significant rain chances. But thanks to the overachieving rain events over the spring and so far this summer, the summer heat has mostly been curbed by weakly dominant subtropical ridging over TX and enough moisture in the soil and vegetation to keep most areas away from those triple digits. The apparent temperature isn't holding back, and there continue to be daily areas getting into the 100s up to 105. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday starts the transition to increasing moisture as a disturbance/inverted trough over the southwestern Gulf lifts northward and brings a good chance for showers and storms back into the picture for the weekend. PWATs will surge into the 2-2.25" range at times this weekend, and some of the models are showing a pretty active area over the eastern half Friday afternoon. Despite the added moisture, the summer heat isn't expected to pull back much, but perhaps the ambient temps might dip a few degrees. Model timing has been inconsistent, leading to some related inconsistency in the model blends. Given that this moisture could be enough to trigger new activity at most if not all hours of the day, we'll mainly favor 30 to 50 type PoPs this weekend, and hopefully get better timing signals as more hi res and rapid refresh model data comes into the picture. Going into the work week the upper ridge strengthens, but is centered well north of TX. Thus we could wind up with multiple days of tropical rain chances or at least some air-mass daytime convection going into the middle of the week. Daytime highs remain on a plateau with most areas seeing low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Monitoring a cluster of rain and storm activity in the Rio Grande Plains that is lifting northward but this cluster is expected to weaken over the next few hours with no impacts across the TAF sites. Otherwise, skies are beginning mostly clear but few to bkn low clouds develop later overnight into this morning. Some MVFR ceilings could develop at the San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF), otherwise looks to remain VFR at KAUS and KDRT. VFR flight conditions return to all sites by mid-morning and mainly remain through the end of the TAF period. Light to moderate winds are expected, primarily coming out of the south and/or southeast. Highest gusts could reach into the 20 to 25 kt range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 97 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 76 96 77 / 10 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 96 74 95 73 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 77 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 94 73 94 74 / 10 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 95 75 95 76 / 10 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...62  738 FXUS62 KCHS 080638 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 238 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions for the majority of the week. - 2) Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions for the majority of the week. The center of a H5 595 dam ridge will remain over middle FL this afternoon, with a ridge extending northward across the Southeast U.S. today. The ridging will provide the region with very warm llvl thicknesses. An area of broad low pressure is forecast to remain over the central Carolinas this afternoon, supporting SW winds across SE GA and SC. Due to the SW winds, the sea breeze may begin an hour or two later this afternoon compared to earlier this week. Given the warm llvl thicknesses, slower sea breeze, and decent insolation, high temperatures in the upper 90s will be common this afternoon, some locations may peak at 100 degrees. However, 90th percentile guidance indicates that KCHS will likely continue the 2nd longest streak of consecutive days with temperatures <100 degrees on record, 2595 days. The record number of days in 5784 which ended 6/18/1970. The hot temperatures combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s should yield heat index values greater than 108 degrees for most of the forecast area. Coastal counties of SC/GA are forecast to see heat index values to peak between 110 to 115 degrees. The dangerous heat index values will be highlighted with an Extreme Heat Warning, elsewhere a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM. Late afternoon thunderstorms may provide some pockets of relief from the heat. The heat wave is expected to continue through the end of the week with heat indices likely around the 105 to 110 range and highs in the mid to upper 90s area wide. Heat products look to continue at least through Thursday and possibly into Friday with the highest probability of reaching advisory criteria mainly east of I-95 and closer to the coast including the Charleston and Savannah metro areas. While heat indices may not be as high as this afternoon, the bigger issue will be long duration heat stress mainly along the coastal areas where heat indices might not drop to below 100 degrees until well into the evening and overnight hours with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Several days of intense heat and minimal cooling overnight has been reflected in the HeatRisk product with widespread Major (level 3 of 4) and a corridor of Extreme (level 4 of 4) along the immediate coast Thursday and Friday. Regardless of any heat products this will continue to bring a risk of heat-related impacts, especially to those more vulnerable to heat or those without adequate cooling/hydration. KEY MESSAGE 2: Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. Hot and humid conditions should yield moderate instability across the coastal counties once the sea breeze develops and pushes inland this afternoon into early this evening. Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS indicated very little thunderstorm coverage this afternoon, due to dewpoint mixing well into the 60s west of the sea breeze. However, HREF does indicate isolated to scattered thunderstorms near the sea breeze this afternoon. The forecast will feature SCHC to CHC PoPs across the coastal counties during the late afternoon and evening. This pattern is expected to continue for Thursday through Saturday, with isolated coverage on Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will likely increase Sunday into Monday as a more potent shortwave trough moves across the mid-atlantic. Expect storm coverage to increase Sunday afternoon compared to the normal summertime pattern. Storms will likely be focused along a sagging front that will slowly drift south with time. Given the increased coverage and maybe a little more deep layer flow, a couple strong to severe storms with damaging winds may be possible on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 6Z TAFs: Terminals will remain VFR with light southwest winds this morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the sea breeze this afternoon, expected to develop near or over the terminals between 20-24Z, highlighted with PROB30. In the wake of the sea breeze, winds will shift from the south-southwest with gusts near 20 kts, especially at KJZI. Convection and wind gusts should dissipated early this evening. Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be a risk for tstm impacts at the terminals each afternoon/evening, especially at KCHS and KSAV. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: The pressure pattern should support south- southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts, with occasional gusts into the low 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to favor 3 to 4 ft. Thursday and Friday: Surges in the wake of the sea breeze may result in southwest winds to increase each afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday. Wind gusts may peak around 25 kts, possibly requiring Small Craft Advisories. The short duration of the elevated winds should keep wave heights between 3 to 4 ft. This weekend into Monday: The pressure pattern should support south- southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts, with occasional gusts into the low 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to favor 3 to 4 ft. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 8: KCHS: 100/2016 KSAV: 101/2010 July 9: KCXM: 99/1986 July 10: KCHS: 100/1986 KCXM: 99/1986 KSAV: 102/1879 July 11: KCXM: 100/2001 July 12: KCXM: 97/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 8: KCXM: 83/2016 KSAV: 80/1990 July 9: KCHS: 80/1998 KCXM: 85/1998 KSAV: 80/1883 July 10: KCHS: 81/1986 KCXM: 82/1986 July 11: KCHS: 80/2016 KCXM: 82/2016 July 12: KCHS: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101-114-115-137-216-238-240. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217>219-239-241. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ043-044-147. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ045-148>152. MARINE...None. && $$ NED  643 FXUS65 KPUB 080640 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1240 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue Today through Friday, forming over the mountains each day and moving over the plains. - Flash flooding concerns persist for the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Severe weather will be possible over the eastern plains, especially on Thursday. - Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Weak zonal flow continues aloft, but an incoming surge of cooler air from the north will bring active weather to the region this afternoon and evening. Showers and storms will fire, mainly over our eastern mountains, by around 2PM, before activity continues off to the southeast through the remainder of the day. Some areas could see brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, warranting a Flash Flood Watch for the area around the Aspen Acres Fire, 12PM through 8PM. Showers will be a bit more plentiful than the last few days, with the chance for a few stronger to marginally severe storms closer to the KS border, where moisture and low-level forcing are both a bit more abundant. Meanwhile, temps during the day will be similar to yesterday, with 80s over the high valleys, and 90s to low- 100s over the eastern plains. Storms move off to the east-southeast overnight, with mild lows and good moisture recovery heading into Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A flattening upper ridge remains in place overhead on Thursday, with a shortwave passing through the region during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to fire as the wave passes and pushes a weak front down, some of which will likely be strong to severe. Latest SPC guidance shows a Slight Risk for severe weather over most of our eastern plains. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, with 80s to mid-90s for most areas. For Friday, easterly surface winds over the plains, combined with a passing wave to our northeast, will bring plenty of moisture to the eastern plains, along with sufficient lift for another round of afternoon convection. Temperatures will be similar to Thursday, if a few degrees cooler over the eastern plains. Looking into this weekend and early next week, a broad area of high pressure is still expected to build in from the southwest. This will lead to progressively hotter and drier conditions. Winds appear light enough, for now, to avoid any major fire weather concerns, but the hope is for more moisture to move in as the high pressure continues shifting east into the second half of the month. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1047 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 KALS...VFR condition overnight into Wednesday afternoon at the terminal. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon across the San Luis Valley and could impact the terminal. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the main concerns. KCOS and KPUB...and outflow boundary will move across the terminals through 06z turning winds easterly around 10 kts. These winds will return to diurnally driven overnight and light. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain by mid afternoon and spread across the terminals into the evening. Brief heavy rainfall, lightning and gusty outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MOZLEY  730 FXUS65 KTFX 080641 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1241 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Better chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive Wednesday afternoon, with severe wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rainfall as the primary hazards. - Dry and hot conditions build in towards the weekend. - A few record high temperatures are possible this weekend. && .UPDATE... /Issued 830 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026/ Updated forecast for this evening is out. The main change was just to adjust pops towards current trends. Precipitation has moved east over North Central MT, thus pops removed over the north. Scattered thunderstorms continue around West Yellowstone for a few more hours. With recent precip in the Havre area, some patchy fog is possible in this region by morning. The other main concern is the potential for severe storms on Wednesday. The latest HRRR is showing the potential for several storms capable of producing strong/severe wind gusts on Wed afternoon. Thus portions of the CWA are already under a marginal risk for the potential of severe storms Wed, and this will continue to be looked at closely overnight. Looking ahead further, it should be a hot and mostly dry weekend, with the rest of the forecast on track. Brusda && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 830 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: The small shortwave will continue to track across Central MT/Hi- line this afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to develop as a result through the evening hours. Current mesoanalysis shows CAPE building towards 1,000 j/kg. Bulk shear around 20kts at the time suggests thunderstorms could struggle to become strong to severe at first, before better shear moves in late this afternoon. With the shortwave tracking east across the state, the thunderstorm threat will mainly be across Hill, Blaine, and Fergus Counties. One or two strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong winds and small to large hail. Very high PWATs of 1 to 1.2" across North-Central MT also brings a localized flash flooding threat for any storm that produces heavy rainfall. Behind this shortwave, a stable airmass settles in for the night and Wednesday morning. Hi-res models show ample low level moisture for the development of patchy fog across the Golden Triangle Region tonight into the morning. Though, this will largely depend on how much rain the areas receives today. Weak southwest flow aloft tomorrow will continue to bring in moist and unstable air into the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop along a cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and evening. Overall forcing and shear are better which gives better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. Severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard due to deep mixing and 1,000+ j/kg of DCAPE. However, these high based storms have all the instability being at the mid levels so I can't rule out isolated large hail. PWATs nearing an inch will also bring another heavy rainfall threat with a low end chance for localized flash flooding over burn scars and urban areas. Thursday through the weekend, an upper-level ridge will build in across the state, bringing drier weather and hot temperatures. Current forecast temperatures reach the mid to upper 90s this weekend. The stress impact from this ridge will largely depend on how much we cool off at night. Currently there's a 40-70% chance minimum temperatures of 65 degrees and higher Sunday and Monday. Ensembles hint at monsoonal moisture could come back next week with ridging, bringing a return for precipitation. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: One concern earlier today for the thunderstorm potential was the small lingering mesoscale convective vortex system this morning will limit surface heating and instability. Though it looks to be areas that got a little sun was able to rebuild instability quickly. However, the chances for strong to severe storms this afternoon will be isolated. For thunderstorm chances Wednesday, the north Central MT plains look to be the best corridor for strong to severe thunderstorms. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 08/06Z TAF Period While VFR conditions will be the rule overnight tonight and most of the day Wednesday, BR/FG over portions of northeastern Montana this evening will move westward, likely affecting KHVR and possibly affecting KCTB. After a dry morning, a few TSRA will develop across the plains, staring over the Rocky Mountain Front before moving eastward. A few of the storms may be capable of producing some gusty winds or hail east of Interstate 15. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 55 91 57 87 / 0 20 30 0 CTB 53 86 56 82 / 0 10 0 0 HLN 56 88 56 86 / 0 30 20 0 BZN 53 87 53 86 / 0 10 30 0 WYS 45 82 45 81 / 20 10 20 0 DLN 52 84 51 85 / 0 10 20 0 HVR 53 90 57 86 / 0 10 20 0 LWT 51 86 53 84 / 0 10 40 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  949 FXUS63 KMQT 080644 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 244 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms pass over the UP today through Thursday AM, with the highest rain totals expected in the south half. There is a Slight Risk (category 2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall and up to a Marginal Risk (Category 1 of 5) of severe weather. - Temperatures will remain closer to normal through the mid- week, and start to increase by the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The going forecast remains on track this morning. Similar to last night, MRMS reflectivity mosaic shows a rather robust line of thunderstorms draped across MN, but the nearest detected lightning is still nearly 100 miles WSW of Ironwood at 06Z, so impacts to the UP prior to 12Z are looking minimal. RAP analysis shows mostly zonal flow from Quebec to the Dakotas at the base of a deep closed low over Hudson Bay. A subtle shortwave over the western Dakotas will pivot through this zonal flow and be the forcing supporting not only the ongoing disturbed weather upstream, but also showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday morning. The biggest chance in the 00Z HREF for today's rainfall is the southward shift of the heaviest axis of total QPF by about a tier of counties. The zone with mean QPF accumulation over 0.5 inches is now limited to the MI/WI state line and the counties bordering Lake Michigan, with Menominee County and western Delta County seeing the highest chances at over an inch of rain at 40-60%. This has resulted in the WPC Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall shifting to just covering the south-central UP. Also covering the south-central UP is a Marginal Risk of severe weather as instability has trended upwards somewhat with HREF mean SBCAPE climbing to 750-1000 J/kg in the south-central with 30-40 kt of mean 0-6km shear and around 100 m2s2 of 0-3km SRH. As the surface trough struggles to depart from the Upper Great Lakes, some light rain showers may (~30% chance) over the south-central and Lake Michigan-adjacent communities into Thursday morning. A quieter pattern then settles in for the late week and beyond as robust ridging sets up over the central CONUS (500mb heights above the 99th percentile of climatology over the Northern Plains by Sunday). This puts the UP in northwesterly flow aloft, which will initially keep temperatures close to normal, but as the upper ridge gets closer to the UP by early next week, the high heights lead to warmer temperatures, with the NBM deterministic even calling for 90s for the typical warm spots on Monday. Precipitation forecasts are too widely spread to divert from the NBM with this forecast package. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Amended at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main story is the precipitation potential thanks to the Hudson Bay low shortwave approaching the region, which is expected to bring widespread periods of rain and thunderstorms throughout today and into Thursday. As flow becomes strongly zonal, this embedded wave brings vorticity maxes overspreading the CWA throughout today. Models agree that some form of upper level lift, possibly enhanced due to rear-right entrance region positioning, will be present, though the exact placement and timing of the trailing jet streak lobe differ. Embedded within this flow is an east-west equivalent potential temperature boundary at low and mid levels which propagates slowly through the area today, finally exiting southeast on Thursday midday. PWATs during this time frame are anomalously high: NAEFS ESAT table shows PWATs above the 90th percentile (1.5" - 1.75") covering the UP by 12Z today and persisting for nearly 24 hours, with locally higher amounts (above 1.75"). Given the moist atmosphere and forcing mechanisms present tomorrow, we are outlooked in the General Thunderstorms, Marginal, and Slight categories by SPC, and in the Marginal and Slight categories by WPC's ERO. However, HREF mean SBCAPE tops out at 500 J/kg only along WI border, and HRRR shear profiles appear weak to modest at best. Thus, with lower potential for severe storms, the main concern is somewhat large rain accumulations throughout Wednesday and into Thursday. NBM shows up to 55% probability of over 1" of rain falling over a 24-hour period between Wednesday and Thursday mornings, and 6-hour distributions show that most rain will fall in the overnight hours on Wednesday evening. Though higher-end totals are below flash flood guidance, training showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as the theta-E boundary aligns with flow aloft. Though flood watches are not issued at this time, this possibility accounts for the WPC's categorization of the UP within a Slight Risk. The area dries out by midday Thursday as high pressure moves back in behind the Hudson Bay low, and temperatures should be relatively close to climate normal. Friday marks the beginning of a large ridge building over the Great Plains and extending from the Sierra Mtns to the Appalachians. Anticyclonic mid-level flow sends warm toward the Upper Midwest, resulting in very warm temperatures by Sunday && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions for most of tonight begin to deteriorate into the pre- dawn hours as a batch of showers, possibly with some thunder, approach the area. This will cause the flight category at all terminals to drop to MVFR, first closer to 10Z at IWD and then from 12-15Z at CMX and SAW. Ceilings lower further to IFR mid to late morning. Rain showers taper off at IWD and CMX Wednesday afternoon with a gradual improvement to VFR, but additional showers and storms will be possible at SAW into the evening. MVFR restrictions linger at SAW the rest of the forecast period. Generally light winds are expected through the TAF period, with the exception of the immediate vicinity of any thunderstorms that develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Amended at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Light winds prevail on Lake Superior and the Bay of Green Bay through the period. Periods of rain and thunderstorms will be over the lake through Thursday morning. During this time, winds may be higher near outflow boundaries, though severe storms are not expected. As high pressure builds back in on Thursday, winds lay down through Saturday afternoon. Significant wave heights are expected to be less than 1 ft. Southwesterly flow picks up to 20 knots Sunday and Monday, with gusts to 25 knots and waves to 4 ft. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE...GS DISCUSSION...RE/GS AVIATION...LC MARINE...RE/GS  189 FXUS64 KOUN 080647 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 147 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A few isolated showers and storms may be possible today across southeast/south central Oklahoma. - Storm chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible Thursday evening into early Friday morning. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through next weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 There continues to be a signal for isolated showers and thunderstorms into early this morning, primarily aided by perturbations within the northwest flow aloft. Increasing mid- level heights today will help temperatures this afternoon get into the low 100s across much of the area. Given the upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints, especially across south central Oklahoma, heat indices will range from 100-105 F for most of the forecast area. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, with no severe weather expected. The best chance for storms this afternoon will be across south central and southeastern Oklahoma. Bunker && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Storms will likely develop over the High Plains of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon, and push into the Plains Thursday night. Although the best chances of storms will be farther north, there is still potential for some of these storms to move across northern Oklahoma. These storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts as they move into northern Oklahoma. As storms move into Oklahoma, they are expected to weaken. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than on Thursday, but overall there won't be much relief from the heat. Hottest heat indices during the afternoon will be across southern and south central Oklahoma. More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible Friday evening as storms move in from the high Plains. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aforementioned showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday across much of the area. Temperatures will be cooler over the weekend, however, with increasing surface dewpoints, afternoon heat indices will still be in the 100s. Mid-level ridge will shift to the north across the central and high Plains into next week, helping to keep temperatures near average across the southern Plains. As of right now, the overall synoptic pattern next week will support above average temperatures and below average precipitation. Bunker && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Skies are clearing out tonight with VFR conditions expected to continue. Winds will shift to south-southwesterly at most sites tomorrow morning and remain that way during the day. There will be a few showers in southeast Oklahoma, but precipitation chances at DUA of 10-20 percent don't quite justify a PROB30 as of the 06Z TAF issuance. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 99 78 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 100 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 101 76 101 73 / 10 20 10 40 Ponca City OK 96 77 98 78 / 0 20 10 10 Durant OK 98 80 99 80 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...04  221 FXUS65 KLKN 080648 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1148 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to slowly diminish in coverage from west to east across Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening through this evening * Temperatures will remain above seasonal values this week * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon from Friday through Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: For today, models are showing a drier air mass continuing its eastward push into the region. Precipitable water values will drop to a half- inch or less with the highest values across portions of Elko and WHite Pine counties, east to the border with Utah (greater than a half inch). Consequently, the highest chances for isolated showers and wet/dry thunderstorms will again be in northeastern Elko county. Highs will be in the 90s with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Thursday through the weekend. All models are showing the upper ridge retrograding to the west on Thursday before moving back east and building during the early weekend period. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected during this time frame but temperatures will be warming in response to building heights. On Thursday, highs will be in the low to mid 90s, but warming to the mid 90s to low 100s on Friday, with a few degrees of additional warming on Saturday. This is leading to minor to moderate HeatRisk impacts across northern and central Nevada with the increasing probability of heat headlines needed of portions of the area through the weekend, including Sunday. Though Sunday could see a degree or two of cooling, the main heat impacts remain. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Afternoon breezes to 20 mph will be possible over the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The PoP, weather, sky and wind grids were adjusted for the short term forecast due to fire weather concerns. Low to moderate confidence exists for PoP coverage today. Moderate to high confidence on upper ridge build late in the week, with high confidence on HeatRisk for Friday and the weekend. && .AVIATION... Expect storms on Wednesday across mainly northeast Nevada with KEKO and KENV terminals with VCTS. VFR conditions will persist at all other locations. Winds will be light with gusts to 22KT possible AMD NOT SKED continues for KEKO due to communications issue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Coverage of thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish this afternoon with wet/dry thunderstorms mainly over portions of Elko county. By Thursday and Friday, afternoon temperatures will begin to soar into the triple digits by the weekend bringing moderate HeatRisk to the area. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86  287 FXUS63 KPAH 080651 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 151 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily chances for showers and storms (ranging from 30-80%) are forecast through the weekend, peaking Thursday night through Saturday. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to an increased flash flooding threat Thursday evening through Saturday. - While we can't rule out a strong storm today, severe chances are quite low (less than 5%). Probabilities for severe storms have increased for Thursday, now up to 15%, focused anytime from late afternoon through the overnight. The pattern may favor additional chances (5-15%) for severe storms on Friday and possibly Saturday. - High temperatures remain slightly below normal in the mid to upper 80s today. Warmer temperatures (low 90s) return Thursday and possibly Friday which may produce heat index values above 100. Temperatures will cool down again for the weekend, into the mid to upper 80s. It appears increasingly likely we will exceed 90 again by Tuesday of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper level trough that has resided over our area for days will linger for one more day before pushing east of our area on Thursday. Thus today should be similar to the past couple of days with scattered showers and storms. Very limited flow to work with though so severe threat will remain quite low, just your typical summer time storms with gusty winds and very heavy downpours. The slow moving nature of the storms may lead to some localized flooding instances again. Right on the heels of the upper trough departing will be a series of disturbances sweeping across from the Plains into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to increased flow aloft, particularly 850-700mb, which will yield deep layer shear pushing 25-35 kts by late Thursday afternoon through Friday. Bit less confidence on Saturday, but at least some enhancement of the flow (20-25 kts) may remain in place. At the same time, southwest flow at the surface will increase ushering in a warmer airmass as temperatures push the low 90s again coupled with mid 70s dewpoints on Thursday. This will lead to heat index values ranging from 98 to 103 and push MLCAPE values over 2500j/kg. While convective evolution varies amongst model guidance, the environment in place will support an increased threat for organized storms as early as late Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight. The new day 2 outlook from SPC has increased to a slight risk across the northern half of the region which certainly seems justified. Damaging winds appear to be the greatest concern, with DCAPE values pushing over 1200j/kg on soundings. Additional rounds of severe storms are certainly possible Friday and maybe lingering into Saturday, with ML probabilities continuing to suggest 5-15% severe probs for those days. Guidance is trending wetter for late week, with repeated rounds of heavy rain leading to an increasing flash flooding threat. Won't be surprised if we end up needing another Flood Watch issued for the Thursday evening through Saturday period. Precipitable water values will consistently be at or above 2" during this period. While the LREF grand ensemble maintains fairly low probabilities (15-30%) for receiving over 2" through Sunday morning, several of the CAMs and even the GFS are depicting swaths of 2-4" and perhaps localized higher. WPC has us outlooked in a slight risk ERO for Thursday through Saturday. A strong upper level ridge will build across the Midwest/Plains early to mid next week, which will finally help dry us out with several completely dry days expected. While there is an increased chance for reaching 90 again by next Tuesday (50-70% via the LREF), the brunt of this heatwave may end up staying centered to our west. So for now, it doesn't look as brutally hot as last week was for our region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Patchy fog could develop overnight at the terminals with visibilities falling into the 2-5SM range. Winds will be light tonight increasing to around 5 knots on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible again on Wednesday with PROB30 mentioned for TSRA. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...AD  499 FXUS62 KMLB 080657 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, please visit heat.gov. - A Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today where peak heat index values are forecast to reach up to 109F. - Building dry air will reduce rain chances through the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today-Thursday... Noticeably lower rain chances are forecast mid week as waves of drier air pass through the mid levels. Isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms today (10-30%) trend mostly dry on Thursday. However, there is low confidence in an isolated shower (~20%) near and north of the Orlando metro Thursday where a thin ribbon of deeper moisture may be present. As rain chances are reduced, the greatest forecast emphasis shifts towards a period of increasing heat as high pressure builds over the region. Above normal temperatures will be greatest across interior areas near and north of I-4 each day ranging the mid to upper 90s today, and more widely spreading the upper 90s by Thursday. Across the southern interior, highs mostly range the mid 90s with low to mid 90s spreading the coast. Peak heat index values are forecast to top out around 105-107F across the north today, but higher peak heat index values up to 109F are forecast across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today. Cannot rule out additional Heat Advisories across portions of east central Florida on Thursday. Warm conditions will persist after sunset and into the evenings with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s through midnight. Overnight lows mostly range the mid to upper 70s. Friday-Tuesday... High pressure continues to control the local weather pattern, keeping a period of above normal temperatures through the weekend. Expect only small variations in afternoon highs each day with the hottest conditions persisting across interior regions near and north of I-4 (upper 90s) through at least Saturday. Elsewhere, mid 90s continue with a few areas of low 90s along portions of the immediate coast. The abnormally hot pattern begins to slowly breakdown early next week as a mid to upper level trough digs into the eastern U.S., and highs are nudged closer to normal values by Tuesday. Heat index values exceeding 108F will continue to be monitored with the potential for Heat Advisories across portions of the area into the back half of the week. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Despite surges of locally higher PWATs, model soundings suggest a layer of drier air continuing through the mid levels. This should generally help to suppress rain chances again on Friday, and NBM PoPs have trended down over the last few forecast packages, now showing only a 20-30% PoP in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. By Saturday a weak mid level disturbance lifts across south Florida, weakening as it approaches portions of central Florida. Currently keeping NBM PoPs (30-60%) Saturday with the highest coverage south, but will note high uncertainty as global ensemble members show high spread. A better chance to see scattered showers and storms could be by early next week as the influence of high pressure begins to break down aloft. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An axis of high pressure over the local Atlantic waters will maintain southerly winds and favorable boating conditions. Light south to southwest winds shift south to southeast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Late afternoon and evening winds may increase to 14-18 kts over the open Atlantic (generally north of the Cape). Seas hold mostly 2-3 ft through late week, occasionally building to 4 ft well offshore north of the Cape. Drier air will keep lower rain chances across the local waters the next few days with isolated to scattered showers and storms returning this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers and lightning storms. TAFs begin with light and variable winds. Winds will increase from the SW at 5-10kts before backing SE at the coastal TAF sites into the afternoon and evening at 6-12kts. VCTS is forecast at KDAB after 18Z and at the Orlando Metro TAF sites after 20Z before showers and lightning storms diminish by around 01Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 8 July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 98 (1981) 97 (2022) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 98 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (1969) 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 100 (1908) 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 97 (1998) 96 (2023) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 98 (2024) 96 (2024) 97 (2022) 96 (2020) Fort Pierce 97 (2024) 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 77 95 77 / 30 20 20 0 MCO 96 78 97 78 / 20 20 10 0 MLB 92 78 93 78 / 20 10 0 0 VRB 92 77 93 77 / 10 10 0 0 LEE 95 79 96 80 / 20 10 10 0 SFB 96 78 97 78 / 30 30 20 0 ORL 95 79 96 79 / 30 30 20 0 FPR 92 76 92 76 / 10 10 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-164-254-259-264. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Fehling