900 FXUS63 KARX 080703 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 203 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of thunderstorms are expected today, one north of I-94 this morning and a second across much of the area this afternoon and evening. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall with modest probabilities (30-50%) for over 1 inch of rainfall and localized spots seeing upwards of 2 to 4 inches. - Some storms this afternoon and evening may be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. - Seasonable temperatures are expected throughout much of the week with highs in the low to mid 80s before warming through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today - Thursday: Storms Expected, Some Strong to Severe with the Potential for Heavy Rainfall this Afternoon and Evening Storms ongoing early this morning across portions of central MN will shift into north-central WI throughout the early morning hours as suggested throughout much of the CAMs as a shortwave impulse situated in western MN pushes eastward. Noting some gravity wave signatures in the convection over western MN that might try to propagate slightly more southward of where the CAMs currently suggest, overall not confident in how this would manifest but could see some strong wind gusts with any organized convection north of I-94 early this morning, especially considering the respectable 0-3km shear profiles in the recent RAP. Otherwise, as this early morning convection in north-central WI departs, the key question is exactly where the resultant boundary left behind is located to initiate afternoon convection. Run-to-run consistency in many of the CAMs has not been overly consistent with a variety of storm modes and locations being present keeping forecast confidence for the afternoon and evening somewhat low. That being said, the environment depicted in the RAP suggests fairly weak deep-layer shear profiles with relatively skinny instability. As a result, would expect any supercellular structures that do develop to struggle as updraft/downdraft separation would not be maintained for very long. Consequently, would expect storms to trend multi-cellular or linear quickly depending on what forcing is present. Overall, the hail threat with these storms appears somewhat limited due to the deep warm cloud depths, lack of robust deep layer shear and skinny instability profiles. However, certainly could see some damaging wind gusts with significant precipitation loading in storms as well as with any linear modes. In addition to the severe potential, the parameter space for heavy rainfall is respectable with precipitable waters of around 1.75" and warm cloud depths to around 3.5-4km. Consequently, the 00z HREF has medium probabilities (30-50%) for rainfall amounts over 1" across much of the local area. However, cannot rule out some localized rainfall amounts in the 2-4" range as the 00z HREF has some amounts in this range in the higher percentile members. The key point of uncertainty that remains is again related to where storms may frequent the same locations as much of the CAMs have conflicting opinions on where convection may trek earlier in the afternoon. That being said, there has been some increasing signal during the late afternoon and evening for a more pronounced frontal passage to interact with convection in the local area and force it upscale, most notably seen in the recent HRRR and NAM Nest runs. This would likely coincide with a shortwave, currently situated over South Dakota, pushing through the area during the evening and overnight. In this scenario, more organization of cold pools could lead to a damaging wind risk as well. Additional storms cannot be ruled out overnight and into the early morning hours with any differential heating boundaries, but given the degree of surface stability overnight and into the early morning hours on Thursday, the severe potential with these should be minimal. Friday - Early Next Week: Warmer Temperatures Return Over the weekend, mid to upper level ridging begins to build across the United States which is noted in most/all of the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Heights associated with this ridge are expected to be fairly impressive, reaching 594-600dam at 500hPa, which the 07.00z NAEFS highlights as near or exceeding the maximum heights within climatology. Surface temperatures trend warmer this weekend into next week in response to these rising heights. There's still quite a bit of spread within the various ensemble suites regarding what the temperatures will ultimately be, but interquartile spreads suggest highs in the upper 80s are favored, but possibly reach into the low 90s. Dewpoint temperatures also increase during this period as the 07.07z NBM suggests a 30-60% probability to exceed 70 degrees highest over northeast Iowa, translating to apparent temperatures in the 90s. Will need to continue monitoring trends, but a return to warm and muggy conditions looks to be on the horizon && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions throughout much of the overnight give way to shower and storm concerns throughout the morning through evening hours for Wednesday. Will have to watch to see if storms in north-central WI shown in the CAMs early this morning could make their way to the I-90 corridor (under 20% chance), however the bulk of the CAMs keep the I-90 corridor storm free until afternoon. MVFR to IFR reductions are to be expected with any storms and a few storms may be strong to severe with gusty to locally damaging wind gusts. Cigs will remain predominantly VFR outside of any storms but will lower to low-VFR and perhaps MVFR north of I-90 towards 06z Thursday. Winds will remain from the southwest throughout much of the day at around 6-12 kts. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Falkinham/Naylor AVIATION...Naylor  928 FXUS66 KOTX 080704 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1204 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical Fire Weather: Red Flag Warnings in effect Wednesday due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. - Thunderstorm Potential: Slight (5 to 10 percent) chance for high- based showers and thunderstorms across Eastern WA and North ID early Wednesday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Critical fire weather conditions will continue for Central Washington and expand across Eastern WA this afternoon and evening as a dry cold front tracks through the region. The front will bring a low (5 to 10 percent) chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms over Eastern WA and North ID early Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will decrease slightly but remain breezy Thursday and Friday, keeping fire weather conditions elevated through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday: A strong low off the Canadian coast will move inland and usher in a strong dry cold front through the forecast area later this morning. Winds will increase across much of central Washington, with widespread wind gusts 20 to 30 mph expected and wind gusts 35 to 45 mph expected along the Cascade gaps. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to be widespread today. Current models show an 8 to 10 mb pressure gradient between SEA and COE. These higher wind gusts could result in blowing objects alongside challenging driving for high profile vehicles. As such, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for a significant portion of central and eastern Washington from 11 AM to 10 PM tonight. Areas included in the Red Flag Warning are the the Okanogan Valley, Cascade foothills, Waterville Plateau, Western Columbia Basin, Spokane area, Colville Reservation, and Northeast Washington foothills area. Ahead of the front, a weak vorticity maximum will move through alongside mid level moisture, resulting in a small (5 to 10 percent chance) but impactful chance for elevated across eastern Washington later this morning. A couple hundred Joules of CAPE with steep lower level lapse rates and an inverted V sounding will support a low chance for dry thunderstorms, with very little precipitation expected. While chances are low for any thunderstorm development, this is a high impact scenario when combined with already critical fire weather conditions later in the day, as any lightning strikes will pose a fire hazard. Any convection that forms will be monitored extremely closely this morning. Thursday through Sunday: Zonal flow following the frontal passage will keep winds elevated on Thursday, particularly across the Cascade gaps. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, roughly 50% of clusters show another trough moving through the area, which would result in continued fire weather concerns through the first part of the weekend. The other 50% of clusters show the trough staying just offshore enough to not impact winds as intensely. Conditions will continue to be warm and dry with temperatures in the mid to high 80s. Monday through Tuesday: Clusters then begin favoring a broad ridge setting up and strengthening over much of the Western US at the beginning of next work week. This will result in warming temperatures, with long-term models projecting highs to return to the 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Alongside clusters showing good agreement in this ridge, the CPC's 8-14 day temperature outlook shows a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. Additionally, the CPC's probabilistic 8-14 day outlook hazards page shows a 20-40% chance for extreme heat in southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. /AS && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected at all terminals throughout the forecast period. Winds have currently relaxed at every TAF site but EAT, where they will continue being elevated overnight. A cold front will move through the forecast area tomorrow morning, increasing winds around 15-18Z for many of the TAF sites. Wind gusts will be 20-25kts, and EAT has the best chance at seeing 25-30kt wind gusts. Aside from EAT and MWH which will stay breezy through 06Z tomorrow, winds will relax around 01-03Z. There is a low chance of sprinkles (10-15%) and dry thunderstorms (5%) between 06z and 18z with this front, though confidence remains too low to mention in the TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. Low confidence for sprinkles affecting the TAF sites, very low confidence in thunderstorm chances. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 89 57 85 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 87 57 84 56 85 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 84 51 81 50 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 93 60 90 59 93 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 90 53 86 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 87 56 84 55 85 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 84 56 81 54 84 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 91 54 90 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 87 61 88 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 92 57 90 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)- Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)- Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)- Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$  045 FXUS66 KEKA 080706 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1206 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 KEY MESSAGES * Persistent Stratus: Seasonably cool conditions along the immediate coast will alternate with typical night and morning low clouds and fog. * Building Interior Heat: A robust ridge of high pressure will maximize temperature anomalies across all inland valleys, including Lake, Trinity, and interior Mendocino counties, starting late this week. .SYNOPSIS...A strong surface high pressure system over the eastern Pacific interacting with an intense inland thermal trough will maintain a shallow marine layer along the coast, bringing overnight low clouds and localized dense fog. Inland areas will remain dry and hot under a building upper-level ridge. Triple- digit heat will become widespread across the interior valleys of Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake counties by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...The 500 mb analysis shows a building upper-level ridge over the southwest U.S. extending into California. The persistent coastal marine layer is a result of a tight low-level onshore pressure gradient between the offshore marine high and the interior thermal low. Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings and some visibility restrictions will impact coastal areas through the morning hours. Expect partial afternoon clearing along the immediate coast as daytime heating deepens the mixing layer slightly, though low stratus will return rapidly after sunset. Inland areas will experience significant heating as the upper ridge strengthens and moves westward. Subsidence will compress the marine layer, keeping it shallow and confined to the coast and immediate valleys. High temperatures on Wednesday will reach the 90s to near 100 degrees across the interior valleys of Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake counties. By Thursday, triple-digit heat will expand across all interior zones, with the highest values expected in the deepest valley floors. && .AVIATION...The marine boundary layer remains firmly established along the coast. KACV and KCEC are experiencing IFR to LIFR conditions due to low stratus and fog, with visibilities lower than 1 mile at times. Clearing to VFR is expected by early Wednesday afternoon before stratus returns after 03z. KUKI will remain consistently VFR with clear skies and typical diurnal wind shifts. && .MARINE...The pressure gradient between the offshore high and the inland thermal low is tightening across the waters. Winds south of Cape Mendocino are sustained at 20 to 25 knots, producing steep, wind-driven seas that warrant a continuation of the Small Craft Advisory for the southern inner and southern outer waters. In the northern outer waters, wind speeds are modeled to increase to 20 to 25 knots with wave heights reaching 9 feet at a short 8- second dominant period late tonight. These waves will be steep and choppy. A Small Craft Advisory may be issued on this shift to address these conditions, or the decision may be deferred to the upcoming midnight shift to see if trends continue. Northern inner waters will remain comfortably below advisory thresholds. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  541 FXUS61 KOKX 080712 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Clearing conditions today will lead to a gradual warming trend through the end of the week. 2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday afternoon and evenings. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A wave of low pressure continues to push offshore this morning allowing for drier air to filter into the low levels. Dry conditions expected through Thursday morning. High pressure builds over the area today. Temperatures will start to warm, but still remain below average with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The high pressure will shift to the southeast and offshore on Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs reaching near seasonable levels in the lower to middle 80s. The warmest day of forecast period will likely be Friday. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s. Max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures/heat indices will be lower for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The forecast heat indices on Friday are below the 1 day heat advisory criteria (100-104 for any length of time). .KEY MESSAGE 2... A weak shortwave aloft is forecast to pass across the northeast on Thursday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is likely to set up across the area. The combination of these features supports the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Modeling has differed in the placement of the focus for convection, but current consensus indicates the highest probabilities across the southern half of the area including the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. Showers/storms that develop in the afternoon may gradually work east towards southern CT and Long Island in the evening. CAPE values are not too impressive with forecast soundings indicating 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE away from any sea breeze influence. 0-6km shear is weak with on average of about 20 kt. This should limit severe potential and SPC currently only has the area in a general thunderstorm risk for Day 2/Thursday. A slightly more amplified shortwave trough axis is expected to pass across the northeast on Friday. This system should drag a cold front through the area late Friday into Friday night. The system will bring potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. The latest model consensus brings the highest probabilities to areas north and west of the NYC metro. Shear is a bit stronger averaging around 25-30 kt with similar CAPE valued as Thursday. Specific details on any severe weather threat are uncertain since this is still 3 days out, but CSU MLP does indicate a marginal probability for a severe thunderstorm. PWATs are progged to range from 1.75-2.00 inches both days. It is too early to determine if there will be any flooding impacts and WPC currently does not have the area in an excessive rainfall outlook. However, given the high moisture content, any thunderstorm can produce heavy rainfall rates. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The ensemble mean synoptic pattern across the CONUS indicates ridging across the west and NW flow/troughing over the east and Western Atlantic. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure will continue to pull away from the area overnight, while high pressure builds in from the west. The high then moves offshore by afternoon. Gradually improving to VFR from west to east overnight. NNE to NE winds less than 10 kt overnight will shift to the S/SW early Wednesday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of improving ceiling categories overnight may be delayed by 1 to 2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday-Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday-Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet through 2 pm due to lingering 5-6 ft seas. Seas will diminish on all waters today with high pressure returning. A frontal system passes across the waters late Friday into Friday night. Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists into Friday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS/MW AVIATION...DW MARINE...DS/MW  729 FXUS63 KDVN 080714 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 214 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms late this evening. Main hazard will be damaging wind. - Additional storms Thursday and Friday, with isolated severe possible and heavy downpours. - Above normal temperatures next week, with a prolonged period of heat becoming more likely. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Morning satellite and radar imagery show an MCS over MN/SD that recent loops have begun to show signs of weakening, especially its eastward extent. Closer to home, weak high pressure was overhead with very light south winds. Temperatures were 2 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Another warm and humid day is in store for the region, with slightly warmer 850mb temps (18-19C), similar mixing depths, and plentiful sunshine yielding afternoon highs near 90 degrees and heat indices in the lower 90s. Attention then turns to the evolution of storms initiating to our northwest this afternoon/evening. The latest 00z HREF and 00z REFS neighborhood and paintball progs show two main areas to watch this evening for storm development; over west central WI/southeast MN and another over western IA. Sufficient instability (CAPE 1500-2000 J/Kg) and moisture will be in place as storms fire along a cool front. However, marginal deep layer shear, weak mid-level lapse rates, and not ideal time of arrival become the limiting factors and lead to lower confidence in severe storms reaching our area. Nonetheless, will need to watch the activity out west this evening for any developing cold pools. If they can maintain their strength and reach the northwest portions of the CWA, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. The SPC has introduced a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms north of a line from Belle Plaine to Dyersville. The primary hazard will be damaging wind with any bowing segments and with slow storm motions, heavy rain will also be possible. A general timing of severe storms would be between 7pm and midnight. There will also be sub-severe activity in the area during this period and overnight. Thursday morning low temperatures will only drop into the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday...the aforementioned cold front to drop south and stall over northern MO, with another shortwave progged to move along it during the afternoon/evening. A strengthening mid-level jet and low level convergence may allow for widely scattered showers/storms to develop during the afternoon and evening as suggested by the 00z REFS. Whether this activity will bring a severe risk is still uncertain. Cloud debris from any morning storms may limit atmosphere recovery and thereby keep the severe risk further to our south and east. In any case, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms remains for northeast MO and west central IL. Friday-Saturday...frontal boundary to continue to drop well to the south of the area, taking with it any lingering precipitation. Some 00z model solutions (NAM/GFS) show yet another shortwave tracking east out of the central Plains Friday, bringing with it scattered showers/storms along an elevated theta-e boundary. As a result, the forecast has 30-50% chances for storms primarily south of I-80 during the afternoon and evening. Severe potential is a little uncertain, with marginal deep layer shear. However, if a convectively augmented MCV were to take place upstream enhancing the wind field, then some severe storms would be possible. Looking into Saturday, high pressure to build into the area behind departing system resulting in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures in the middle 80s. Early next week...model guidance continues to show a large anomalous upper ridge (12z NAEFS/ENS 2.5 to 3 sigma from their ensemble mean) building into the central CONUS. In fact, the 12z GEFS/ENS/GEPS has this ridge encompassing most of the lower 48 by 12z Tuesday with its center not that far away from the local area. As a result, a prolonged period of dry conditions, above normal temps, and building heat is likely. Factoring in evapotranspiration of maturing crops, I wouldn't be surprised to see more heat headlines needed for at least a portion of the area. Apparent T probabilities of 95 degrees or higher off the LREF (100 member ensemble of the GEFS/ENS/GEPS) are in the 40-60% range Tuesday-Thursday. If that were not enough, the latest CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook has a Moderate (40-60%) risk of extreme heat for most of the CWA July 15th-17th. Summer heat lovers rejoice, but for all the rest of us, we will need to wait until later in the month for some relief perhaps from storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF cycle. Light southwest winds under 10kts is expected, with mostly sunny skies. Scattered showers and storms to remain north and west of the terminals this evening through at least 03z.09. These may reach DBQ by the end of the period, but confidence too low to include any mention at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gross LONG TERM...Gross AVIATION...Gross  828 FXUS61 KPHI 080716 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is an increasing potential for flash flooding and severe weather for Thursday and Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Sunshine returns for today with light winds and highs generally in the low to mid 80s. 2) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through at least Friday as a cold front approaches and crosses through the region. 3) Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday for portions of the area before drier conditions return by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Sunshine returns for today with light winds and highs generally in the low to mid 80s. Weak high pressure will gradually build in as we head into the day today and this will bring a return to at least partly sunny skies with highs for most areas in the low to mid 80s. Winds will be light but generally onshore so that will keep it a bit cooler near the coast where highs should be mainly in the upper 70s. It will also be cooler over the Pocono Plateau where highs should be in the upper 70s as well. It will still be a little on the humid side but not nearly as oppressive as some of our recent days so the heat index should only be a few degrees higher than the temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through at least Friday as a cold front approaches and crosses through the region. Isolated showers start to develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning before coverage starts to increase more for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a piece of upper-level energy moves through the region. Winds out of the southwest on Thursday will allow moisture to increase through the day. From these showers and thunderstorms, there is the potential for heavy rain. PWAT values will increase to upwards of 2 inches along with a warm cloud layer process. All of this said, these showers and thunderstorms will have the ability to be efficient rainfall producers bringing the potential for more flash flooding. In fact the Weather Prediction Center now has much of the area in MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday. There is also the signal for a marginal severe weather threat. Increasing instability as temperatures reach the 80s for many along with rising humidity and some supportive lapse rates are forecast. The magnitude of shear values supporting storm organization is still a little more uncertain. The primary concern with any strong to severe thunderstorm is damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the MARGINAL risk for severe storms northward to include most of our County Warning with the exception of the Poconos and portions of central and northern NJ. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms look to develop ahead of the cold front moving southward into the area. Once again, as moisture increases ahead of the front, PWAT values look to increase upwards of 2 inches with these showers and thunderstorms having the potential to produce heavy rain and flash flooding. In terms of any severe weather threat, ML CAPES look to reach at least around 1000 j/kg and shear looks to be a bit stronger than Thursday. So there looks to be at least some threat for severe weather once again with the biggest threat again being damaging winds. Finally worth noting for Friday, temperatures around 90 for many along with higher dew points will result in heat indices peaking in the mid 90s to low 100s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday for portions of the area before drier conditions return by Sunday. Tricky forecast for Saturday as some of our forecast guidance clears the front far enough south to keep the area mainly dry while other guidance moves it through more slowly which would keep showers and storms around. We stayed close to the National Blend of Models (NBM) with this forecast and are forecasting POPs around 20-40 percent from the Philly area southward with lower POPs farther north where it stands a better chance of being dry. Expect highs mainly in the 80s with more comfortable humidity levels compared to Friday. Sunday is shaping up to be free of precipitation with seasonable temperatures, comfortable humidity levels, and a partly to mostly sunny sky. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of overnight...There are likely to be some breaks in a low stratus deck overnight with cloud heights also fluctuating between 3000-3500 feet. General trend will be from MVFR to VFR through the night but there are likely to continue to be fluctuations back and forth. Northeast winds generally 3-7 knots. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...Generally VFR except MVFR cigs could linger at times through the morning at ACY and even potentially at MIV. All sites should be VFR by the afternoon though. Northeast winds 3-7 knots becoming south and then SW through the afternoon at around 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Thursday through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, but scattered showers and storms could result in temporary restrictions to MVFR or even IFR. Sunday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... North-northeast winds around 10-20 knots early this morning shifting to east and then southeast through the day Wednesday and diminishing some as well. Generally expect seas around 3-4 feet. Little change for Wednesday night with southwest winds around 10 knots and seas around 3 feet or so. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...Conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Some showers and thunderstorms are likely over the waters by late Thursday into Thursday night and again for later Friday. Some scattered storms could linger Saturday before fair weather returns Sunday. Rip Currents... For Wednesday, northeast winds will linger much of the day, strongest in the northern beaches, which when combined with moderate easterly swell at 7-8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk of rip currents across northern NJ beaches but LOW further south where winds are a little more relaxed (DE) and/or the shoreline is more parallel to the wind (southern NJ). For Thursday, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomes more southeasterly. This combination gives a MODERATE risk for the northern NJ beaches and DE beaches, but a LOW risk for the southern NJ beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Guzzo AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Guzzo MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Guzzo  829 FXUS65 KBYZ 080716 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 116 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be severe and produce hail, strong winds, and heavy rain. - Trending drier Thursday; a chance of thunderstorms over the east and south. - Very hot this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will exceed 100 degrees most locations over the weekend, and temps on Sunday may challenge all-time records. Protect yourself from the heat! && .DISCUSSION... Through next Tuesday... Scattered thunderstorms with very heavy rain near Sheridan and across far southeast MT should end by 09z early this morning. Satellite imagery shows an area of low clouds over northeast MT. As skies in our area clear out there could be some low clouds and/or localized fog develop before sunrise (the boundary layer remains quite moist). Fog is not a common occurrence in mid-July. Next weak shortwave along the Pacific coast will move eastward and help to produce another round of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Though the air mass will begin to trend drier, pwats remain above normal today. Expect temps in the upper 80s and lower 90s to be warm enough to prevent capping, as was a limiting issue for Tuesday's convection. Shear is marginal but appears strong enough to support a few strong to severe storms. HREF shows most potent helicity tracks over southern Big Horn and Sheridan Counties so this may be the area to watch. Greatest potential for t-storms overall seems to be over our south this afternoon, but by evening a trailing PV max arrives from the west and helps to produce showers and weak t-storms in the evening. Air mass dries further Thursday and convection will be more isolated and should be limited to the south and east. Temps Thursday will be comparable to today, i.e. seasonable. Heights begin to build Friday as a trof deepens along the Pacific coast, and temps will respond accordingly (highs in the 90s). Though there remains uncertainty, area of PV lifting out of the northern great basin may yield isolated high-based weak t-storms mainly over the mountains and foothills late in the day. Anomalously strong upper level high building the intermountain west will bring very hot weather this weekend. Triple digit heat is a certainty with this air mass. Heights are expected to build to near 600dam, and deterministic models continue to show 700mb temps rising to near +18C Saturday and +20C (or a bit warmer) Sunday. Typical July mixing would result in highs in the 105-110F range on Sunday, which means we are talking about potential all- time records (listed below). There are potential flies in the ointment, including the question of lofted smoke from fires to our south, and the effects of boundary layer moisture from recent rains. All told, the combination of triple digit heat and increasingly warm nighttime temperatures (60s & 70s) will significantly elevate heat risk concerns. Please plan accordingly. Well above normal temps continue next Monday & Tuesday but ensemble consensus is for slight cooling, for a couple of possible reasons. There may be weak shortwave energy in southern Canada that flattens the ridge and introduces NE winds, but more likely there will be an increase in monsoon moisture as the ridge becomes centered to our southeast. The possibility of high-based convection w/lightning at some point early next week will be problematic with regard to fire potential, as the fine fuels will be baked this weekend with the heat and sub-10% humidities. Below are the all-time record high temperatures at each of our climate stations: Billings 108F Livingston 105F Miles City 111F Sheridan 107F Baker109F JKL .AVIATION... Patchy fog east of Billings is expected to burn off by around 15z. Precipitation chances (20-50%) enter after 18z today with the best chances being south of Billings. Isolated severe storms are expected with strong wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain being the main threats. MVFR conditions are possible with these storms due to heavy rain decreasing visibility. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger north of Billings until around 12Z Thursday. Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 092 063/091 064/096 066/103 070/108 073/099 071/094 2/T 10/U 01/U 10/G 00/G 00/U 11/U LVM 090 055/090 055/093 057/102 061/103 064/096 062/092 1/U 21/U 01/U 20/G 00/G 00/U 23/T HDN 092 061/092 060/097 064/103 068/109 071/101 070/096 2/T 10/U 10/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 11/B MLS 087 062/092 062/097 067/102 071/109 075/101 070/095 1/U 21/U 00/U 10/G 00/G 10/G 11/U 4BQ 089 062/091 061/096 067/103 071/107 075/102 070/096 2/T 23/T 31/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 11/U BHK 084 057/089 057/093 063/101 066/106 070/100 065/093 0/U 02/T 20/U 10/G 00/G 00/U 01/B SHR 088 057/089 057/095 061/103 066/107 069/099 067/094 5/T 22/T 21/U 10/G 00/N 00/U 13/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  000 FXUS63 KLBF 080723 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 223 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across the western Sandhills, southwest and central Nebraska, with large hail and damaging winds possible. - Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon/evening, favoring areas west of Highway 83, with damaging winds and isolated severe hail the main concerns. - Much warmer temperatures arrive this weekend ahead of anomalous heat setting in for early next week where daily highs in the upper 90s to low 100s appear probable for Sunday through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances late this afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough moving across the Dakotas into MN will push a cold front south through western NE with a northeast to east wind in the afternoon. Highs not as hot, from the mid 80s north central to the low 90s southwest. A few showers and storms are possible in the northeast this morning into this afternoon and possibly further south into Custer County this afternoon. This is in closer proximity to the surface front. In the higher terrain to our west, storms are expected to develop by mid afternoon in an easterly upslope environment and move east into the western Sandhills late afternoon and evening. Storms coverage looks more scattered by this evening across the western Sandhills, southwest and central NE. SBCAPEs by late afternoon will be highest near 2500 J/kg across the southeast, and 1000-2000 across the west. Deep layer shear will be around 35 to 40 kts. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, with isolated large hail also possible. A Slight Risk for severe storms south of a line from Hay Springs through Bartlett. A secondary threat of locally heavy rainfall, where storms are slow moving or train across the same areas. Could see an MCS develop overnight, mainly across south central or southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorm activity will diminish after midnight as weak surface high pressure settles over the area and winds become light and variable. Lows slightly cooler from upper 50s northwest Sandhills to near 65 southeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday/Thursday Night...Modest high pressure will glance the area early in the day with return southeasterly flow becoming established by midday. How potential convection across Kansas impedes moisture advection into the area remains unclear but overall thinking is adequate recovery should be anticipated locally. Beneath persistent anomalous warmth aloft, temperatures should manage to seasonable levels. This paints widespread 80s across the area with a select few approaching 90F. As the influence of a modest EML lingers over the area, moderate instability should develop favoring the Panhandle region where low-level moisture should be most impressive. MLCAPE values are progged to climb to around 1500-2000 j/kg within nominal deep layer shear as 0-6km BWD values reach 25-35 knots which will support organized multicell to isolated supercell development. Convection should develop off the higher terrain during peak heating and track east within the zonal steering flow aloft. Storm motions should be typical of early July, relatively slow. This should delay most activity arriving into our western zones until the early evening. With loss of daytime heating, boundary layer stabilization will hinder eastward progression of activity and MLCIN increases quickly. With lack of any appreciable supporting theta-e advection off the surface, convection should wane quickly by mid/late evening. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for areas west of a Merriman to Paxton line with roughly a 100 mile Marginal Risk buffer to the east. This aligns with the thinking that convection will wane quickly between Highway 61 and 83 corridors and casts doubt on meaningful rainfall chances east of the latter. Main severe threats will consist of damaging wind gusts though isolated severe hail will be possible west of Highway 61. Parent shortwave trough will cross late in the evening with h5 low forming over central and eastern Nebraska. Backside convergence may support persistent light PoPs overnight but NBM probabilities paint low potential for beneficial rainfall. Will keep Slight Chance and Chance PoPs for now, generally limited to 40% or less. Friday and beyond...heights begin to build by later in the day Friday but timing of upper-level low and its departure is low confidence at this time. Model blend maintains low-end PoPs through the bulk of the day which is somewhat supported by various deterministic solutions so see little reason to stray from these significantly. Cooler temperatures appear possible but variations in NWP output limits confidence in this. Attention quickly turns to the looming heat wave arriving this weekend and persisting into next week. Upper ridge will quickly amplify by early weekend with 595+ dam h5 heights overspreading Wyoming and much of western Nebraska by Sunday. This aligns with NAEFS highlighting h2 and h5 heights surpassing model climatologies for the time of year. Similarly, temperatures aloft will be approaching climatological maximums, particularly at h5 and h7. The warmer temperatures aloft combined with the high pressure dome will quell any and all rainfall potential in the extended period. As it stands now, expansive middle to upper 90s are in the forecast for early next week with a few locations approaching triple digits. Forecast highs at North Platte and Valentine in particular would fall in the upper range of each site's respective climatology with values at Valentine likely to exceed the 90th percentile in climatology each day Sunday through Wednesday. As impressive as this warmth appears likely to be, we should fall short of record highs. Nevertheless, given the anticipated magnitude of heat over consecutive days with little relief overnight (heat indices struggling to fall be 70F at times), concern is high for vulnerable folks to prolonged heat. Will need to closely monitor day-to-day trends in forecast highs as headlines may be necessary to account for this. Anomalous upper ridging appears likely to continue over the Central Plains through much of next week with ridge breakdown appearing likely by Thursday. This may break the heat and allow appreciable rainfall chances to return though precise details are uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Decaying convection to the west will shift multiple outflow boundaries east through western Nebraska. These should bring wind shifts and brief gusty winds as a result before subsiding. The majority of the overnight should remain VFR with the threat of light rain likely remaining VFR conditions should anything approach KVTN. Towards daybreak, NWP guidance hints at IFR/LIFR conditions across far northern Nebraska. NAM/HRRR both suggest this potential so inserted a quick TEMPO group to account for this. It is entirely plausible this remains north of the airspace and could be removed with future amendments. Will monitor trends. VFR conditions are likely for much if not the remainder of the forecast period. Diurnal cumulus should form over KLBF and will lead to low-end VFR conditions. Later Wednesday night, convection will again form to the west andthreaten southwest Nebraska, including KLBF. Coverage is in question at this time so will insert another PROB30 to account for this. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...NMJ  127 FXUS63 KGLD 080727 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 127 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm and shower chances continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few showers and storms continue to slowly push east through the area within a small MCS. Given recent trends, the precipitation should continue to weaken and end by about 3-4 am. The rest of the early morning hours is then forecast to see mostly cloudy skies with temperatures lowering into the 60s. During the daytime hours, zonal flow is forecast over the area, leading to similar temperatures in the 90s. Winds are forecast to be a bit lighter as the center of the surface low drifts through the area. Speeds are forecast to be around 5 to 15 mph with winds varying in direction. Mostly sunny skies are forecast with the cloud cover early in the morning forecast to dissipate and push east. Late in the afternoon around 4-6pm, another round of storms that is forecast to develop along the higher terrain just west of the area is expected to push into Eastern Colorado. The majority of solutions have the surface low remaining in the area and have a semi solid line develop and move through the entire area from west to east as an upper shortwave pushes through the Plains. However, there still remains the NAM 3km and some ECMWF Ensemble members that suggest the low will sag further south and help drag the forcing a bit further south. In this scenario, storms would likely move south/southeast and be more confined to along and south of I-70. Currently, the split looks to be about 75/25, so the current forecast reflects the whole area seeing storms. The storms are forecast to be severe at times, mainly with wind gusts of 60-75 mph with either lines or clusters of storms. This would pose a concern for blowing dust, with a wall of dust possible if a clean severe outflow can develop. The cluster and linear storm modes should keep hail a bit on the smaller side around 0.5-1.25". The MUCAPE of 500-2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear of 30-40 kts also supports marginally severe hail. There could maybe be an instance of 2 inch hail if a cell can persist within the clusters or form ahead of the main lines and stay organized. The tornado threat looks to be on the low side with LCLs generally above 1000 meters, low level shear around 5 kts and 0-3km shear around 15 kts. Best chance would be with any truly linear segment orientated north to south. The flooding threat continues to also remain low with storms forecast to progress fairly steadily. Flooding could develop if multiple clusters produce outflows that help storms train or stall over an area. Most of the storm activity looks to again end around 3am for the area. Cloud cover should linger, especially for eastern portions of the area. This could lead to temperatures staying in the 70s for those under cloud cover. Otherwise, temperatures should drop into the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 144 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ***Thursday/Friday*** Upper-level flow looks to be approximately zonal Thursday and Friday. A shortwave trough making its way across the Rocky Mountains would support a surface low in Colorado during the afternoon and evening Thursday. Southeasterly winds may be allowed to develop ahead of the surface low during the afternoon and evening hours, allowing high temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thunderstorms are possible across a convergence zone centered approximately in Eastern Colorado. LREF and NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance both suggest at least a 60% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Thursday across this zone. Surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg seem likely as well according to LREF guidance. The severe potential with these storms will depend on whether stronger winds develop in the mid and upper levels. GFS and EC guidance appears consistent that upper-level winds may only support marginal severe thunderstorms, with most soundings showing 35 kts or less of 0-6 km shear. However, if 75th percentile or better 0-500 mb shear can be experienced (35 kts or greater), some of these storms may be allowed to produce severe hail and wind. Confidence in severe thunderstorms developing Thursday is around 5-10% at this time. The shortwave trough may stick around into Friday. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Thunderstorms are possible again, though appear to be less likely than Thursday. NBM guidance shows the best chances for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation on Friday across portions of West- Central Kansas, but is still only 45% or less. Similar CAPE values to Thursday are in play across this zone, though vertical wind shear may be even weaker. Confidence in severe weather occurring Friday is 5% or less. ***Saturday-Tuesday*** Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the remainder of the forecast will be dominated by broad upper-level ridging overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s. Drying across the forecast area may help prevent heat index values from rising to the level of a Heat Advisory as well. Precipitation appears unlikely Saturday through Tuesday, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows probabilities around 10% or less across the forecast region to see greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period at both terminals. At KGLD, thunderstorms are expected to transition to rain within the first hour. Rain is expected to end around 8Z at KGLD. For both terminals, low level wind shear is expected through at least 11Z and potentially last through 13-14Z. Then winds are forecast to become lighter around 5-10 knots. For KGLD, winds are forecast to veer through the day from out of the south to out of the northwest to out of the east. For KMCK, winds are forecast to vary between out of the south and out of the east. There is a chance for thunderstorms from 0Z to the end of the period. These could be severe. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...KAK/Rhoades  116 FXUS63 KGRR 080727 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 327 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers and Storms This Evening Through Thursday - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered Showers and Storms This Evening Through Thursday Overall a decent signal for a few rounds of scattered thunderstorms between late this evening and late Thursday, but fairly unimpressive environment and dynamics that will keep details of predictability low (when and where exactly it will storm) low and also cap potential at just a marginal threat of wind/hail. But the confidence is fair via the HREF for three main windows for storms: late evening weakening storms crossing the lake toward areas north and west of Grand Rapids, then some elevated Thu morning thunderstorms in west-central and central Michigan, then more surface-based storms Thu afternoon east of US-131. Also early this afternoon, can't rule out a weakening thunderstorm surviving into Ludington. Much about this setup is on the positive but weak side for supporting storms: the sagging cold front, the upper-level jet dynamics, the moistening low-levels and 850 mb moisture transport, the cooling mid-upper levels that will yield about 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE (perhaps more Thu afternoon), and about 20 knots of deep- layer shear. Despite the midlevelds also expected to be rather moist, the well mixed lower atmosphere both this evening and Thu afternoon should support about 500 J/kg of DCAPE per the HRRR, allowing for a chance for a coalesced cold pool to sweep into West Michigan this evening with 30-40 mph gusts, then isolated near- severe wind gusts in mid/southern Michigan Thu afternoon. - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up PoPs are about 10 percent through the weekend as upper level ridging and surface high pressure is most favored over Lower Michigan. A heat wave is expected to develop this weekend to early next week from the Intermountain West into the Northern Plains, with 500 mb heights potentially reaching 600 dekameters over the Dakotas on Monday per the ECE. This plume of 21-24 C air at 850 mb may advect into Michigan from the west-northwest, making highs in the 90s possible Mon to Tue/Wed. The ECE and CMC are the most aggressive with the heat, and GEFS a little less but still quite warm. Dew points may be in the mid 60s this time, less humid than last week's heat wave. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 132 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Still just a weak signal in the models for patchy early morning shallow fog. Any such visibility restrictions will end shortly after sunrise. Expecting few to scattered clouds at or above 5,000 feet today. From the complex of storms currently in northwest Wisconsin, there is a slight chance of them reaching Ludington (LDM) as diminishing showers after 16 Z. Additional thunderstorms developing in Wisconsin this afternoon may nose in toward MKG to GRR after 00 Z, though this is only supported by a few models among the HREF. Any surviving shower or thunderstorm complex would produce some northwest shifts in wind against the prevailing light southwest winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds over the water will mostly be from the south-southwest 5 to 15 knots today, though weakening showers or thunderstorms crossing the lake this afternoon and/or evening may cause shifting winds to west/northwest and gusts 20-30 knots or perhaps stronger. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ050-056-057- 064-065-071. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...CAS MARINE...CAS  270 FXUS61 KPHI 080729 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 329 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is an increasing potential for flash flooding and severe weather for Thursday and Friday. Updated Rip currents section of Marine discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Sunshine returns for today with light winds and highs generally in the low to mid 80s. 2) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through at least Friday as a cold front approaches and crosses through the region. 3) Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday for portions of the area before drier conditions return by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Sunshine returns for today with light winds and highs generally in the low to mid 80s. Weak high pressure will gradually build in as we head into the day today and this will bring a return to at least partly sunny skies with highs for most areas in the low to mid 80s. Winds will be light but generally onshore so that will keep it a bit cooler near the coast where highs should be mainly in the upper 70s. It will also be cooler over the Pocono Plateau where highs should be in the upper 70s as well. It will still be a little on the humid side but not nearly as oppressive as some of our recent days so the heat index should only be a few degrees higher than the temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through at least Friday as a cold front approaches and crosses through the region. Isolated showers start to develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning before coverage starts to increase more for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a piece of upper-level energy moves through the region. Winds out of the southwest on Thursday will allow moisture to increase through the day. From these showers and thunderstorms, there is the potential for heavy rain. PWAT values will increase to upwards of 2 inches along with a warm cloud layer process. All of this said, these showers and thunderstorms will have the ability to be efficient rainfall producers bringing the potential for more flash flooding. In fact the Weather Prediction Center now has much of the area in MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday. There is also the signal for a marginal severe weather threat. Increasing instability as temperatures reach the 80s for many along with rising humidity and some supportive lapse rates are forecast. The magnitude of shear values supporting storm organization is still a little more uncertain. The primary concern with any strong to severe thunderstorm is damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the MARGINAL risk for severe storms northward to include most of our County Warning with the exception of the Poconos and portions of central and northern NJ. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms look to develop ahead of the cold front moving southward into the area. Once again, as moisture increases ahead of the front, PWAT values look to increase upwards of 2 inches with these showers and thunderstorms having the potential to produce heavy rain and flash flooding. In terms of any severe weather threat, ML CAPES look to reach at least around 1000 j/kg and shear looks to be a bit stronger than Thursday. So there looks to be at least some threat for severe weather once again with the biggest threat again being damaging winds. Finally worth noting for Friday, temperatures around 90 for many along with higher dew points will result in heat indices peaking in the mid 90s to low 100s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday for portions of the area before drier conditions return by Sunday. Tricky forecast for Saturday as some of our forecast guidance clears the front far enough south to keep the area mainly dry while other guidance moves it through more slowly which would keep showers and storms around. We stayed close to the National Blend of Models (NBM) with this forecast and are forecasting POPs around 20-40 percent from the Philly area southward with lower POPs farther north where it stands a better chance of being dry. Expect highs mainly in the 80s with more comfortable humidity levels compared to Friday. Sunday is shaping up to be free of precipitation with seasonable temperatures, comfortable humidity levels, and a partly to mostly sunny sky. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of overnight...There are likely to be some breaks in a low stratus deck overnight with cloud heights also fluctuating between 3000-3500 feet. General trend will be from MVFR to VFR through the night but there are likely to continue to be fluctuations back and forth. Northeast winds generally 3-7 knots. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...Generally VFR except MVFR cigs could linger at times through the morning at ACY and even potentially at MIV. All sites should be VFR by the afternoon though. Northeast winds 3-7 knots becoming south and then SW through the afternoon at around 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Thursday through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, but scattered showers and storms could result in temporary restrictions to MVFR or even IFR. Sunday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... North-northeast winds around 10-20 knots early this morning shifting to east and then southeast through the day Wednesday and diminishing some as well. Generally expect seas around 3-4 feet. Little change for Wednesday night with southwest winds around 10 knots and seas around 3 feet or so. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...Conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Some showers and thunderstorms are likely over the waters by late Thursday into Thursday night and again for later Friday. Some scattered storms could linger Saturday before fair weather returns Sunday. Rip Currents... For today, northeast winds 10 to 15 mph will veer to east and then southeast in the afternoon diminishing to around 5-10 mph. The onshore flow when combined with moderate easterly swell at 7-8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk of rip currents across northern NJ beaches but LOW further south where winds are a little more relaxed (DE) and/or the shoreline is more parallel to the wind (southern NJ). For Thursday, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomes more southeasterly. This combination gives a MODERATE risk for the northern NJ beaches and DE beaches, but a LOW risk for the southern NJ beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Guzzo AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Guzzo MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Guzzo  348 FXUS62 KMHX 080730 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 330 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A heat advisory has been issued today for Greene, Lenoir, Duplin, Onslow, Jones, Carteret, Craven, and Pamlico Counties starting at 11AM. Issued a small craft advisory for the coastal waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible once again today as a weak cold front washes out across the region. Some of these storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain. 2) Dangerous heat and humidity persists across ENC into this weekend. 3) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms later this weekend into early next week as instability builds across ENC. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorm activity from last night has since weakened with just some isolated showers noted across ENC this morning. Latest surface analysis shows this ongoing activity is currently riding east just to the south of a slow moving cold front which is noted near the NC/VA border. General expectation is for this front to gradually move south through the day eventually stalling and washing out across ENC, bisecting the area around or just north of Hwy 70 this afternoon. This backdoor cold front will combine with the seabreeze and will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development later this morning and afternoon. While CAM guidance has come in slightly drier than previous runs, I am a bit skeptical of this outcome given the poor performance of the CAMs over the last few days. For now to not completely rule it out, have lowered PoPs slightly closer to 40-60% to lend credence to the potential scattered nature of activity. But will note, synoptically it would make sense to have more precip coverage today as compared to yesterday, so wont be shocked if I am slightly too low on PoPs and adjustments upwards are needed later this morning. To the south of this front a warm and unstable airmass will be in place outside of the N'rn OBX and far NE'rn counties as the front will move through these locations first. A combination of ample moisture and hot temps today will result in MLCAPE building during peak heating to around 2000-3000 J/kg across ENC with the highest values noted along the Crystal Coast and just south of the aforementioned front. Will note some guidance has MLCAPE values building closer to 3000+ J/kg this afternoon which could act to increase thunderstorm strength. In addition to this, with the front moving south we may have slightly more deep layer shear as compared to previous days (closer to 25kts). All of this could lead to a few storms becoming strong to severe in nature this afternoon. SPC has portions of ENC under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather with damaging winds (40-60 mph) and small hail being the main hazard within the strongest storms. In addition to this, given the slow moving nature of the front, storm motions will be rather slow, and with PWATs generally around 2-2.5 inches across the region any thunderstorm that develops will be a rather efficient rainmaker. So in addition to the severe threat we will also have a threat for localized flash flooding, and WPC has kept much of the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as well. Beyond today, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with heat indices around 100-110 in the forecast later this week. As we get into the weekend, an upper trough and associated surface front look to approach from the north and west bringing the next threat for increased shower and thunderstorm activity KEY MESSAGE 2...While we sound like a broken record, we will continue to be hot and humid across ENC into this weekend. Today the hottest temps (upper 80s to mid 90s) will be noted south of the previously mentioned cold front today. While cooler temps (low to mid 80s) will be noted along the OBX which is where the front will move through first. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s we will once again see heat indices today around the 100-110F range across the Crystal Coast. As a result have issued a heat advisory for the same area as yesterday as areas from Greene/Pamlico County south have the best chance to reach heat advisory criteria given later timing for showers and storms here. This also coincides with the major heat risk footprint across the CWA. As we get into Thursday and into this weekend expect to see continued hot and humid conditions as temps get into the 90s each day with the hottest temps occuring on Thurs/Fri. Lows each night only get into the mid 70s to low 80s not bringing much relief to the area each night. With dewpoints in the 70s there could be widespread heat indices around 100-110 each afternoon from Thurs into Sat. Probabilistic heat risk shows a 60% + chance for reaching major heat risk values with the greatest risk coming on Thurs/Fri so additional more widespread heat advisories may come into play over the next few days before we finally cool off Sun/early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3... Some changes with regards to this weekend as instability has trended down with MLCAPE values likely closer to 1000-2000 J/kg this weekend as more cloud cover may be noted this weekend. Either way, with an upper level trough, mid level shortwave and surface front approaching from the north and west this weekend an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances is likely. While instability has trended down, with a cold front moving into the area from the north and west could see a few stronger storms this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low stratus has developed across portions of the Crystal Coast and SW'rn counties impacting the OAJ/EWN terminals as of this update as low level moisture has pooled across these areas. This has brought IFR ceilings to these terminals with generally VFR conditions noted elsewhere. Generally expect these low clouds to persist into daybreak, perhaps expanding slightly before lifting around 12/13Z. Have TEMPO groups to account for this threat across EWN/OAJ while ISO/PGV hold on to a VFR TAF into daybreak. Afterwards a cold front will begin to approach from the north which will bring yest another round of TSRA to portions of ENC. Any thunderstorm that impacts the area would bring a threat for brief periods of sub-VFR ceilings/vis mainly after 18Z. For now given the scattered nature of this activity have just used VCTS at the terminals this afternoon but can expect a mix of PROB30/TEMPO groups as we get closer in time and nail down exact timing for storms for each terminal. Otherwise once the front stalls and washes out will likely see a return to VFR conditions to all of ENC this evening. Outlook (Wednesday night through Sunday): Beyond Wed, more typical iso to widely sct activity expected as ridging rebuilds into ENC so a much lower threat for sub-VFR conditions. However, as we get into the weekend as an upper level trough and associated surface front approaches increasing chances for showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions will be noted. && .MARINE... Have issued a small craft advisory along the coastal waters from Hatteras Island south to Onslow Bay as latest obs have shown frequent SW'rly wind gusts up to 25 kts overnight. While this small craft advisory currently goes out until 8AM today, have seen a recent reduction in wind gusts so could end this small craft earlier than previously anticipated. Either way, latest obs across our waters show widespread 10-20 kt SW'rly winds with a few gusts up to 25 kts across our waters this morning. With a weak backdoor cold front approaching from the north, expect the gradient to weaken across our waters today allowing winds to ease to 5-15 kts by this afternoon. Winds will shift to a NE-ENE direction to the north of the front and remain SW'rly to the south of the front. The front is forecast to bisect our waters around Hatteras Island before washing out this evening. In addition to the weak wind shift, scattered showers and thunderstorm will be possible today along this front bringing a risk for locally enhanced winds and seas. As we get into tonight, front dissipates ending the thunderstorm threat and allowing winds to become S'rly across all waters varying from SE-SW at 5-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 2-5 ft into Tuesday morning across our coastal waters. Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): A summer time pattern with a strengthening thermal trough is forecast from Thurs on into this weekend. This will result in increasing SW'rly winds each afternoon through Sat bringing our next threat for small craft conditions to our waters. Next frontal passage occurs over the weekend as well brining increased chances or showers and thunderstorms Sat night into Sun. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ079-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ154- 156-158. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCF AVIATION...RCF MARINE...RCF  530 FXUS62 KTBW 080731 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are forecast for at least the rest of the week, with afternoon heat index values of over 100 expected to be near Heat Advisory levels in some spots each day. - Drier air moving into the area will limit rain chances today through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Weak mid-level ridging will hold over Florida through the rest of the week. At the surface, the ridge axis extending from the Atlantic across southern Florida today will gradually lift north through the rest of the week, resulting in mainly westerly flow today becoming more southeasterly and easterly by late this week and into the weekend. This ridging at the surface and aloft will result in warm temperatures, with heat index values approaching heat advisory criteria in a few places each afternoon through the rest of the week. While afternoon thunderstorms typically provide some relief from the heat, rain chances through the rest of the week will unfortunately be lower than normal as a Saharan air layer pushes west into the state, bringing in drier conditions aloft. For today, a few showers could shift onshore and develop along the west coast in the morning, then isolated to scattered showers and storms will shift inland through the afternoon. The driest air is expected to be overhead on Thursday, with no mentions of rain in the forecast across the entire area. Moisture will start to return on Friday, with scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast for areas south of the Tampa Bay, but mainly rain free conditions expected to hold over the Nature Coast. Moisture will continue to return through the weekend before a weak cold front stalls out over northern Florida early next week, resulting in higher rain totals for Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few showers or storms will be possible shifting onshore during the morning and early afternoon hours, mainly after 15z around the Tampa Bay. Scattered storms will then be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours, with the highest chances over the interior around KLAL. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure ridging from the Atlantic into the southern coastal waters today will setup light and generally westerly flow, with drier air keeping rain chances low through the rest of the week. The ridge will lift north late in the week, allowing winds to turn to southeasterly and then easterly, but wind speeds will generally remain less than headline criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Slightly drier air will filter into the area through the rest of the week, limiting rain chances. However, critically low relative humidity is not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 81 95 82 / 20 10 10 0 FMY 96 78 97 78 / 20 20 10 10 GIF 96 77 97 77 / 30 20 10 0 SRQ 92 80 95 80 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 95 76 97 76 / 20 10 10 0 SPG 94 81 95 82 / 20 10 10 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming  676 FXUS61 KCTP 080735 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 335 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slightly lower PoPs Thursday for areas north of I-80. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Relative minimum in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. 2) Rain chances increase for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Relative minimum in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Areas of fog and low clouds have developed and will gradually dissipate after sunrise. A few slow moving showers are ongoing along a boundary that cuts across southwestern portions of the forecast area. Radar estimates show that a few localized areas in Bedford and Fulton Counties have seen rain totals as high as 2 inches since midnight, but rainfall rates have been low enough to prevent any worries about flash flooding. These showers should continue through the rest of the night, before dissipating through the morning. Upper level flow becomes more zonal today and weak high pressure at the surface sets up over the eastern half of Pennsylvania. As a result, expect skies to become partly cloudy for the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Model soundings show a relatively strong capping inversion over most of central PA this afternoon, which should limit the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. That being said, we may still see isolated to scattered showers and storms develop on the higher terrain of the Alleghenies. Any storms that do develop will be capable of producing heavy downpours, but the flash flood threat appears to be low. KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances increase for the end of the week. An upper level trough will set up over the northeastern US for the end of the week. A few weak disturbances moving through the trough will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop on Thursday, particularly over the southern half of the area. There is still some uncertainty regarding storm coverage, but any storms that do develop will be very efficient rain producers Most guidance shows precipitable water values climbing to near 2 inches along and south of the turnpike, tall, skinny CAPE profiles, and a sufficiently deep warm cloud layer in excess of 11,000 feet. This, combined with slow storm motions, may support a flash flood threat over southern PA. Though shear is expected to be weak, there is some potential for storms to slowly organize as they move eastward through the afternoon. SPC has added a marginal risk for severe weather that covers the Lower Susquehanna Valley with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. A stronger shortwave will move through on Friday leading to additional thunderstorm development ahead of a cold front. Instability looks to be limited, but storms will still have a very moist environment to work with so heavy rainfall will be possible. Uncertainty begins to increase as we head into the weekend. Rain chances for Saturday will depend on how quickly the cold front from Friday drops south of the area. We could see scattered showers and storms if the front lingers over southern PA, but we would be mainly dry if it is quicker to slide off to the south. Sunday is looking like a mainly dry day as most guidance has the boundary well to our south. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Plenty of low level moisture still in place across the region. Areas east of a KBFD-KDUJ-KAOO line will likely drop down to IFR or LIFR in BR/FG for the back half of the night. Confidence is high (>70%) for LIFR in FG at KUNV as it has for the past several mornings. The remainder of sites will see a mix between VFR and MVFR conditions overnight, with alternations between the two possible. Visibilities are expected to be mostly VFR at these sites as well. Model guidance does indicate a slow improvement trend after 12Z Wednesday, thus have continued the trend of increasing visibilities and ceilings during the mid and late day. Winds will shift to a general southerly direction but will remain less than 8kts. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Mainly dry early. Numerous to many SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon. Intermittent impacts likely. Sat-Sun...Chance of showers and a few storms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Bauco DISCUSSION...Bauco AVIATION...Lambrech/Tyburski  646 FXUS63 KFSD 080735 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 235 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated showers and storms continue through mid morning. Although severe risk is low, an isolated wind gust as high as 60 mph is possible, mainly along US Highway 14 through 4 AM. - Scattered storms return this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are possible along/southeast of a Lake Andes to Sioux Falls to Jeffers line. Main threats are strong winds to 65 mph and hail to quarter size. - High temperatures rise into the 90s toward 100 degrees this weekend and into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A muggy and warm start to this Wednesday with temperatures/dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds are elevated enough to preclude any fog development. Elevated storms are expanding in coverage along the strengthening LLJ. Main severe risk through the next couple of hours remains along the US Hwy 14 corridor where ample DCAPE exists. Main threat would be a wind gust to 60 mph through 4 AM CDT. Biggest question for later today is exactly where the boundary ends up, as it will aid in for our later day storm development. Although we'll likely have some cloud cover around, we should recover back into the upper 80s and lower 90s south of I-90. With dew points in the lower 70s, should have modest instability as the cap erodes through the afternoon. Greatest severe risk is across northeastern NE and northwestern IA, where a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been introduced. Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk remains along and south from a Lake Andes to Sioux Falls to Jeffers line. Main threats are going to be wind gusts to 65 mph as LL lapse rates and DCAPE increase and quarter sized hail. Potential limiting factor for hail is the 0-6km shear values around 20 kts, although these increase to near 30 kts by the evening. Isolated activity may linger in our southern forecast area through the early overnight hours. Otherwise, mostly dry weather is expected with slightly cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet conditions persist this afternoon with high temperatures warming to the mid to upper 80s and low 90s. Latest satellite and surface obs show a , outflow boundary from morning storms that is set up along from Huron South Dakota to De Smet South Dakota, to Canby Minnesota. The main effective boundary is also visible on satellite well northwest of the area. These boundaries will serve as the areas for new thunderstorms to develop on later this afternoon as a mid level wave interacts with the boundaries. Large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging winds to 70 mph will be the main hazards. While the tornado threat will be mostly north and west of the area, a local/isolated tornado threat is possible along the boundary as the mean wind is oriented parallel to it, allowing for a longer resonance time for a storm to ingest the boundary driven helicity. These storms look to develop later this afternoon around 5 pm or later as the mid level wave catches up to the boundary. A second round of showers and some storms will develop across the Black Hills this afternoon and push eastwards. These storms will cross the state of South Dakota and get into locations east river this evening. The environment does not look all that favorable as less moisture (and associated instability) will be available in this area. At the same time, vertical shear will also be weaker in this same area as well. While the strengthening low level jet could keep elevated showers and isolated storms going, any storm that persists into the forecast area is not expected to be strong to severe Any chance for a strong to severe stormwill come to an end by 3 am or a little earlier. Though these showers may persist through the forecast area overnight. Latest guidance shows these showers continuing to persist throughout the day on Wednesday. This will bring some cloud cover to the area which will keep temperatures just a little bit cooler. As the same time, the previously mentioned boundary will be sliding southwards through the area. This boundary looks to slide just far enough to the south that additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms could develop on it. Latest hi-res guidance shows these storms developing across parts of northwest Iowa tomorrow afternoon before exiting the area in the evening. While this looks to be the consensus amongst the guidance, some uncertainty regarding how far south the boundary gets remains. If the boundary gets hung up, then severe storm chances could increase during the daylight hours tomorrow. As of now, the latest REFS shows a 20-30% chance for reflectivity values to exceed 40 dBZ. Thus, think the most likely scenario for tomorrow is for elevated showers and weak storms push through the majority of the area. The exception will be portions of northwest Iowa, generally near and south/southeast of highway-60 where a pre-frontal trough where enough surface heating could result in a few severe storms during the afternoon timeframe. Will keep an eye on this potential. Any chance for strong to severe storms will come to an end during the evening hours as the surface boundary and pre-frontal trough push southeast of the area. Thursday looks to be a pleasant Summer day as high temperatures warm to the 80s and winds stay light out of the north/northeast. High temperatures look to warm to 80s while humidity values remain modest. There looks to be enough instability to develop a few showers to an isolated thunderstorm. Any storm that does develop is not expected to be strong to severe as vertical shear profiles will be weak. As of now, only have a 20-40% chance for these showers to weak storms to develop. Chances for rain will be trending downwards into the evening hours as the boundary layer stabilizes. Friday will see continued near seasonable temperatures with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Highs will begin to warm as an upper level ridge begins to build on Saturday. Highs will warm a bit more to the mid 80s to mid 90s Saturday afternoon. The ridge looks to build up over the Rocky Mountains on Sunday before quickly translating to over the Northern Plains by early next week. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance places the peak of the ridge up to 597 to 600 dam. This will result in much hotter temperatures returning to the area with high temperatures into the 90s to potentially the low 100s. The ensembles support this as they show a broad 40-100% chance for high temperatures to exceed 90F and a 40-70% chance for highs to break 100F. The highest probabilities lie across central South Dakota. With the center of the ridge places directly over the Northern Plains, the upper level jet and associated gradients will be north of the area. This looks to leave mostly dry and hot conditions Sunday through Tuesday at this time. Humid conditions will accompany the heat so heat headlines will be possible. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are forming along a quasi-stationary boundary over central South Dakota. These are expected to slowly move southeast through the region tonight. Some storms could be strong to severe producing large hail, heavy rain, and wind gusts to 60 kts. Southerly winds will become breezy and variable as the front moves through. Behind the front winds will be northerly and light. Isolated to scattered storms may continue through much of the day over eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. VFR conditions are expected to prevail except for areas under storms. Ceilings and visibility may decrease to MVFR and briefly IFR under the strongest storms. By Wednesday afternoon another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the same slow moving boundary. This time focused over northeast Nebraska, extreme southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Risks will be large hail, heavy rainfall, and gusts to 50 kts. Storms look to push southeast of the region by the end of the end of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...AJP  904 FXUS63 KDLH 080738 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 238 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rainfall is possible over inland northwest to north- central Wisconsin this morning. Moderate to pockets of heavy rainfall falling on top of previously heavy rainfall persists for the Brainerd Lakes to Pine County region. - A Flood Watch is in effect through late this morning from the Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin ending at Washburn County where the risk of flooding is greatest. - Minimal precipitation in the extended forecast with potentially impressive heat this weekend into next week. - The risk of heat-related illness will increase from Saturday into Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Heavy rainfall is ongoing across the southern Brainerd Lakes to inland northwest Wisconsin region early this morning. Observed rainfall of 1 to 2.5 inches has been observed so far in this area, although highest right around the Hinckley part of western Pine County where discrete strong thunderstorms moved overheard a few hours ago. An additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches still possible into the early morning daylight hours today for this entire area though of the Northland. The Flood Watch was expanded earlier into the Burnett and Washburn Counties as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could bring minor flooding to these counties into the commute hours today. As the heaviest rainfall clears east of the forecast area later this morning, persistent rain showers and capped at mid-levels isolated thunderstorms are possible for far eastern Minnesota, the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. A notable instability gradient sits just south of the region with southern Price County on the far northern edge of it. If, a big if, this gradient can shift a bit further northward then a few strong thunderstorms producing small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph are possible for Price County in north-central Wisconsin. But right now the confidence is fairly low for any strong to severe storms is fairly low. Guidance continues to trend warmer for the late weekend to early week heat. HeatRisk brings in a general 30-70% chance of Major heat impacts (highest in north-central MN and lowest in inland northwest WI and Arrowhead), but there is high confidence for at least areawide Moderate heat impacts Sunday. High temperatures could in the upper-80s to low-90s are forecast. This heat lasts into early next week then. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Main stories for this forecast package involve the potential for heavy rain tonight and early Wednesday then the warm-up this weekend into next week which will raise the potential for heat- related illness. Synopsis... As of 19Z this afternoon a nearly stationary front stretched from near Watertown, SD to near St. Cloud, MN to near Bayfield, WI. Regional radar mosaic revealed an area of light rain over eastern North Dakota with showers over a portion of northwest Minnesota. A compact MCS was noted over west-central Minnesota while an MCV from early morning convection was centered over far northeast South Dakota within an area of stratiform rain. The latest SPC RAP analysis revealed MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg over east-central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota with a gradient northward along and just north of the front. This afternoon through Wednesday morning... Expect the MCS to propagate eastward along the instability gradient through late afternoon. It will likely strengthen as greater instability builds ahead and to the south of the complex. Meanwhile the trailing MCV will create a localized enhancement in convergence and lift in its wake. The showers over North Dakota and northwest Minnesota are forecast to spread eastward into northern Minnesota by this evening in response to a lobe of 500 mb vorticity over North Dakota this afternoon which will propagate eastward through tonight. The main focus for heavy rainfall and a small risk of severe storms will be found along and north of the front. This evening, an 850 mb low-level jet is forecast to develop and create enhanced low-level convergence along and north of the front. Instability will become somewhat limited overnight with MUCAPE values of 500-2000 J/kg straddling the front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in north-central South Dakota this afternoon and propagate eastward with time tonight. Meanwhile additional storms are forecast to develop over central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. The strongest moisture advection will be over the Brainerd Lakes by 08.06Z and will propagate farther eastward overnight. A reservoir of PWAT values of 2 to 2.5 inches is forecast to build over central Minnesota in response to southerly theta-e advection through late evening. Freezing heights will be around 13kft which combined with limited instability and 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots should produce low-centroid storms and efficient precipitation production. Several CAMs reveal a training patter of storms tonight over central Minnesota which raises the potential for widespread 1-3 inch rainfall amounts. Isolated 2-4 inch amounts are certainly possible. With all these factors in mind along the the recent rainfall over the Northland, we decided to issue a Flood Watch from the Brainerd Lakes east into Pine County. That area is the most likely to see excessive rainfall. Flash flood guidance over the watch area ranges from 1.5 to 2.25 inches in 1 hour and 1.8-2.5 inches in 3 hours. Those precipitation rates are well within reach given this setup. The severe weather risk is more limited. The modest instability and mid-level winds will limit the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greater potential for severe storms is to the southwest of my area. The existence of the MCS/MCV combination has the potential to displace the strongest convergence south of the Northland for tonight, which would shift the area of heavy rain potential out of our area. These trends will need to be monitored through this evening. Showers and storms will persist overnight and slowly taper off from west to east Wednesday morning. The risk of flash flooding decreases rapidly as storms weaken. Wednesday afternoon and evening... The front is expected to loiter over the southern third of Minnesota into central Wisconsin Wednesday. Another round of showers and storms is forecast to our south which may propagate eastward into the Hayward and Phillips areas during the late afternoon and evening hours. Depending on how far east the heavy rain tonight occurs, there may be a chance of flash flooding over those areas. Temperature will generally trend cooler for Wednesday due in part to lingering cloud cover. Northeast winds will allow a weak lake breeze to propagate well inland keeping temps cooler. Look for high temperatures in the low 80s north and south to the low to upper 70s from the Brainerd Lakes into NW WI and shoreline areas of the Arrowhead. Thursday through early next week... We will enter a period of quieter weather for the remainder of this week. Widespread rain chances dwindle as zonal flow develops over the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Upper- level ridging will build Sunday into early next week which will allow strong southwesterly theta-e advection to bring a return of upper 80s to low 90s temperatures. Dewpoints will increase as well. The risk of heat-related illness will trend higher starting as early as Saturday and persisting through Wednesday at least. Several rounds ofheat headlines may be needed. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorms along the WI/MN stateline move into northwest Wisconsin over the next hour. Expect rainfall visibility impacts at all terminals along and south of the Iron Range through 12-15Z today. Periods of IFR visibilities are expected tonight due to heavy rainfall for a 3-6 hour period at any given terminal south of the Range. Anywhere from 1-3 inches of new rainfall is possible for the Brainerd Lakes to inland northwest Wisconsin as the heavy rainfall ends Wednesday morning. Rain showers linger behind the band of heavy rainfall into the daylight hours today as IFR becoming MVFR skies slowly clear out. The Borderlands looks to largely remain without heavy rainfall and limited to scattered light showers and fog. An even more widespread round of fog builds after 03Z Thurs across most of northwest Wisconsin and parts of far eastern Minnesota. In time IFR vis and maybe ceilings could be needed in TAFs for this late Wednesday night to early Thursday morning fog potential. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Light winds and minimal wave activity is likely for the next few days outside of any thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms move over the lake this morning and cannot be entirely ruled out along the shorelines either this afternoon. Dense marine fog may form tonight for the Twin Ports to South Shore. Advisories may be needed in time for this possible dense fog tonight. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Heavy rainfall was observed for all districts south of the Iron Range early this morning. The heaviest rainfall moves out of region through inland northwest Wisconsin later this morning. Afternoon isolated thunderstorms today though keep a slight chance of gusty and erratic winds for far eastern Minnesota and across northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. A notable gradient in observed minimum relative humidity is expected today for northern Minnesota. MinRHs from 30-40% are forecast along and north of the Iron Range and across the Arrowhead and closer to 50-60% along and south of US Hwy 2. Generally dry conditions with MinRHs from 30-45% are forecast Thursday. Winds today through Friday remain light and slowly increase from the southwest Saturday into Sunday. Seasonable temperatures through Friday warm Saturday and become hot and humid Sunday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ033-034-036- 038. WI...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ006-007. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...NLy DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...NLy MARINE...NLy FIRE WEATHER...NLy  917 FXUS64 KCRP 080739 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 239 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts this week, with peak heat indices between 103-108 degrees. - Low rain chances through Thursday along the Coastal Plains, medium rain chances Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 South Texas lies within a mid-level weakness stretching SW from Arkansas into NE Mexico which is currently splitting ridging over the Fl Peninsula and ridging over the SW US. Although this weakness will persist some subtle height rises will be observed tomorrow with PWATs generally in the 1.6 inch range (near normal). Any storms should be sea-breeze driven with coverage largely being isolated (15- 25%) and focused over the Coastal Plains in the afternoon. Although a surge of tropical moisture will approach the area from the southeast on Thursday, it's leading edge should not reach the area until after peak diurnal heating, so expect similar isolated sea- breeze activity. The aforementioned moisture plume (PWATs up to 2-2.3 inches) and accompanying mid-lvl easterly disturbance will approach the area late Thursday into Friday bringing increasing rain chances Friday into Saturday. At the moment the system looks progressive enough that the rain will be beneficial and manageable, but naturally given those 90-95th percentile PWATs some areas will see heavy downpours and isolated high rain totals. Rain chances Sunday into early next week will be dependent upon if the disturbance and moisture plume lift north-northeast of the area, or remains near the area. For now NBM suggests isolated PoPs but these may need to be increased as the time period approaches. High temperatures remain near normal through the period with highs ranging from 90 near the coast to around 100 in the Rio Grande Plains. Lows will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with the spatial gradient reversed from the highs (as is typical in southeasterly flow). Peak heat index values generally range between 103 and 108 daily. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Predominately, VFR condition can be expected throughout much of this TAF cycle. Some sites could drop to MVFR due to ceilings and visibilities but should recover by mid-morning. Winds will be light over night and increase to moderate levels in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Gentle to moderate south-southeasterly winds (BF 3-4) will persist through the workweek. Low daily rain chances will also continue through much of the week before increasing into the moderate range by late week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 76 92 79 / 10 10 10 20 Victoria 96 75 95 77 / 20 10 10 10 Laredo 99 76 98 77 / 10 10 10 0 Alice 95 74 94 75 / 20 10 10 10 Rockport 92 82 91 82 / 10 10 10 30 Cotulla 98 75 98 76 / 0 10 10 0 Kingsville 93 75 92 76 / 10 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 90 81 90 82 / 10 0 10 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC/91 AVIATION...JCP/84  858 FXUS64 KJAN 080738 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 238 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels of heat returns late this week and persist into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today through next Tuesday...A mid/upper level trough residing about the region will gradually weaken and become absorbed in quasi-zonal flow across the country. This will allow sub-tropical ridging to increase its presence across the Lower Mississippi River Valley late this week and into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure centered to the southeast of the CWA will maintain southerly flow across the region, thus keeping humid conditions across the area. With the presence of the trough nearby today and Thursday, decent chances for diurnally driven convection will remain in the forecast. Convection will linger into the evening hours, before finally dissipating as daytime heating wanes. Gusty winds, locally heavy downpours, and frequent lightning will be possible with the most intense storms. As the aforementioned sub-tropical high builds in Friday into the weekend, rain chances will lessen a bit but still be confined to mainly the afternoon and early evening hours. With highs topping out in the low to middle 90s each afternoon and dew points in the 70s, afternoon heat index values will climb to around 105F in many locations Thursday into the at least Saturday. If this trend continues in future model data, a "Heat Advisory" may be needed for portions of the area late this week and into the weekend. Better rain chances currently look to return to the forecast at the beginning of next week. This is due to a frontal boundary that's progged to sink south into the region. If this scenario indeed verifies, the widespread showers and storms over the area will bring an end to the heat stress across the forecast area for at least a few days. /19/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR flight conditions with light, southwesterly winds will prevail through the period. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 92 73 92 74 / 20 10 30 10 Meridian 93 73 93 74 / 30 10 40 10 Vicksburg 92 75 93 76 / 40 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 94 75 94 75 / 20 20 40 10 Natchez 93 75 94 75 / 30 10 20 0 Greenville 92 74 94 77 / 30 10 40 10 Greenwood 92 74 94 76 / 30 20 50 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/SW  054 FXUS63 KICT 080743 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 243 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Off-and-on thunderstorm chances tonight through Saturday night, especially during the evening, nighttime, and early morning hours. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a handful of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible throughout this period. - Mostly seasonable temperatures expected the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: TODAY...Currently there is a weak cluster of showers/storms progressing east-southeast over western Kansas. Thinking this activity will likely dissipate before reaching central and south- central KS. However, short-term guidance suggests this activity will develop an MCV tracking over central KS today. While we're thinking convective inhibition will probably be enough to keep thunderstorms initiation at-bay, cannot completely rule an isolated storm or two associated with this MCV from about midday through the early evening, mainly west of the Flint Hills. TONIGHT...Better chances for thunderstorms will arrive tonight, as a few clusters of thunderstorms track east-southeast off the High Plains and southern Nebraska, in response to a slow-moving cold front approaching from the north-northwest. Thinking by the time activity reaches the forecast area, the primary hazards with these loosely organized thunderstorm complexes will be 50-65 mph winds, small hail, and perhaps locally heavy rain (although progressive nature of storms should prevent widespread heavy rain). THURSDAY--THURSDAY NIGHT...Tonight's thunderstorms should gradually exit southeast KS Thursday morning. For the afternoon and evening, most CAM solutions generate a decently strong cold pool with tonight's convection, which should drive the convectively-augmented frontal zone further south than the global models are suggesting, likely over southern KS or northern OK. Consequently, thinking any isolated thunderstorm chances late Thursday will be over south- central and southeast KS in vicinity of this boundary. For Thursday evening and night, we are expecting another MCS or two to track east- southeast off the High Plains, and track along/north of the draped/stalled frontal zone (probably track generally along/south of I-70, although there is high uncertainty on its exact track). Similar to tonight, the primary hazard with this activity will be locally severe wind gusts. FRIDAY--SATURDAY NIGHT...The lingering frontal zone combined with shortwave energy continuing to top the building western CONUS ridge should support continued off-and-on thunderstorm chances Friday through Saturday night. Locally severe wind gusts will remain the primary hazard throughout this period. SUNDAY--MONDAY...The upper ridge looks to build so far north that weak shortwave energy is expected to progress northeast to southwest across Mid-America late weekend into early next week. This combined with slightly cooler temperatures aloft south of the ridge may support a smattering of isolated showers/storms Sunday through Monday evening, mainly over southern KS. TEMPERATURES: TODAY--SATURDAY...Thinking the next few days will probably the warmest of the next 7 days, especially today areawide, and Thursday over southern KS. A post-thunderstorm outflow airmass will likely keep temperatures in check generally north of Highway 54/400 Thursday. Heat indices may touch 105 over south-central and southeast KS both days, but thinking it's too marginal for a heat advisory. Friday and Saturday will likely feature an ever-so-slight cool down, as thickness decreases a bit north of the weakening stalled frontal zone. SUNDAY--NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a rather anomalous upper ridge building across the central and western CONUS. Normally this would be a recipe for a developing heat wave across Kansas. However, the ridge looks to progress far enough north to keep Kansas to the south of the greatest thickness and associated highest temperatures. Consequently, daytime temperatures may end up being rather seasonable in the upper 80s through mid 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Great flying weather expected over the region for the next 18 hrs with VFR conditions. Light southeast winds will switch to the south during the day on Wednesday. By later this evening, thunderstorm chances are expected to increase from the west, as activity rolls east-southeast off the High Plains. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...CDJ  188 FXUS62 KMFL 080745 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 345 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors. - Little to no rainfall today and tomorrow; scattered to numerous storms Friday and Saturday, and some could be strong. - Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A general synoptic picture of the eastern CONUS consists of a shortwave/closed low over the MS/TN Valleys, a shortwave off the Northeast US coast that's embedded in the northern stream, a ridge over Florida, and a TUTT over the far southeastern Bahamas. At the surface, the shortwaves have their respective surface reflections as does the ridge. Satellite imagery depicts the initial wave of the SAL spreading over south Florida this morning. Over the next two days, low-level ridging will provide south Florida with steady SE flow and moisture advection under the hot and dry SAL. This setup will severely limit any shower or thunderstorm development and also allow for the mixing of anomalously warm temperatures to the surface. While some of the dry air may alleviate high dewpoints as it mixes to the surface, this is going to be most likely across the interior. At the coasts and near the Lake, near-surface moisture from the maritime influence should keep dewpoints rather high. Highs are forecast to climb into the mid and upper 90s each afternoon, with heat indices in the 105-110 range (possibly a little higher across SW FL). Heat will be, by far, the main sensible weather concern through the short-term and beyond. A heat advisory is in effect for most of south Florida today and will likely be needed again tomorrow. Take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The MS/TN Valley shortwave will drift east and elongate as it slowly phases in with the northern stream as a shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. At the same time the TUTT over the Bahamas will make gradual westward process and weaken a bit as it does so. Direct forcing for ascent from the TUTT appears as though it will remain south of south Florida. However, daily rounds of convection under the TUTT, that will eventually be responsible for its weakening, will advect NW across south Florida in the form of weak MCVs and moisture anomalies. This weak mid-level forcing and addition of moisture may help overcome the SAL and allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop across south Florida on Friday and Saturday. Just where and when the best rain chances will be remains highly dependent on convective development over the Bahamas and Cuba over the coming days, and is too hard to pinpoint at this time. We could also see a greater potential for severe downbursts in the strongest storms as the low/mid-level SAL increases the potential for evaporative cooling on the storm- scale. Where storms are not expected, it will remain hot and heat advisories may continue through late-week into the weekend. The finer details on just how widespread the heat will be should become more clear as the precipitation forecast gains more confidence. Drought-busting rain is not anticipated as widespread totals are forecast to remain under an inch for the two day period. As the influence from the TUTT move away by the end of the weekend, the SAL becomes re-established across south Florida, with anomalously warm low/mid-level temperatures overspreading the region once again. Expect heat concerns to be more widespread once again, and potentially more severe than earlier in the week. The shower and thunderstorm forecast is tricky as there will likely be convection further north in Florida, associated with forcing from the fractured southern half of the elongated shortwave mentioned above and associated surface trough. While steering flow appears to be mostly westerly, it could be that any robust convection propagates into the warm and unstable south Florida region in the evenings. In general though, rain chances will be lower than typical for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Little to no rain chances across south Florida today. VFR should prevail through the TAF. Easterly flow will increase to around 10 knots along the east coast today, but for the west coast a light onshore wind will develop as the seabreeze fights the background easterly flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds and seas will increase a bit through the remainder of the week as the western edge of high pressure spreads across the SW Atlantic and SE Gulf. Showers and storms are unlikely both today and tomorrow, but rain chances will increase Friday into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 82 94 82 / 10 0 0 10 West Kendall 93 78 94 80 / 10 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 94 81 95 82 / 10 0 0 10 Homestead 93 81 93 81 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 82 93 83 / 10 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 91 82 92 82 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 95 82 96 83 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 92 80 93 81 / 20 0 0 0 Boca Raton 91 82 92 82 / 20 0 0 0 Naples 95 78 96 79 / 20 20 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>070-072-074-075-168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM....Harrigan AVIATION...Harrigan  334 FXUS61 KAKQ 080747 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 347 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Marginal severe risk (level 1 out of 5) continues for Thursday and a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been added for Thursday as well. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. 2) Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. 3) Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. An upper level trough is located in vicinity of the New England coast early this morning. Meanwhile, a shortwave feature is tracking across the Mid-Atlantic coast on the southern periphery of the upper trough. At the surface, a stationary to slow moving cold front lingers over southern VA and coastal NE NC. An area of low-level streamline convergence is located in vicinity of the Northern Neck, and this is coincident with an axis of PW values of 2.3-2.4" and modest surface based instability. An area of slow moving to nearly stationary heavy rain and embedded tstms has lingered over the Northern Neck and there have been some reports of flooding early this morning. The latest trends from the HRRR depict that this area of streamline convergence lingers in vicinity of the western shore of the Ches. Bay through the morning. Therefore, some localized flooding from excessive rainfall will be possible, but also highly localized, and could creep into Hampton Roads. Otherwise, the best chances of showers and aftn tstms gradually shifts to the SW today as the cold front moves through the region. Coverage of showers/tstms will be less today compared to the prior two days. Hence the flash flood threat will be more limited and localized this afternoon. A few stronger tstm cores are possible, and this could produce some localized damaging wind gusts across interior southern VA and NE NC. Not as hot today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s/around 80F at the coast, to the mid 80s inland. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. The mid/upper level flow becomes more progressive Thursday and Friday. The 500mb flow increases to 30-35kt Thursday afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave trough, with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave trough. With strengthening mid level flow and strong surface heating strong to locally severe tstms are possible each afternoon. The question on Friday is coverage given more drier downslope flow. Additionally, the 00z/08 HREF has a decent signal for heavy rain from NE of the RIC metro to the lower MD Eastern Shore (and points N). High temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. Dewpoints should drop enough each afternoon to keep heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, but readings up to ~105F are possible in NE NC (especially along the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound). KEY MESSAGE 3...Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Chances of afternoon/evening showers/tstms continues Saturday as a cold front slowly sags through the region. Otherwise, trending drier Sunday into early next week as high pressure returns in the wake of the cold front. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday, before a warming trend commences Tuesday into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Wednesday... A weak cold front was slowly pushing S across southern VA as of 06z. Primarily VFR. However, onshore flow will develop behind the front, and IFR/MVFR cigs should gradually overspread the area through 08z. Scattered nearly stationary showers and some isolated tstms linger through 08-10z, but are not expected to directly impact any of the TAF sites at this time. Any IFR cigs linger through 14-15z, before gradually lifting to MVFR, and then VFR by mid to late aftn. Isolated to scattered showers linger through this morning, with a few tstms possible by early aftn. However, the best chances move W of a line from RIC to ECG by later in the aftn. The wind will generally be E/ENE 5-10kt through the day, before shifting to ESE later in the aftn and evening. Additional IFR/MVFR stratus potentially develops late tonight into Thursday morning. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms return Thursday, with the probability 20% or less by Friday (better chances N/NW of an RIC-SBY line), then 40-60% by Saturday, and less than 30% Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected this week. NE 10-15 kt winds are expected through most of today. - The risk of thunderstorms is lower today but increases again Thursday and Friday. Generally benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this morning are E-NE 10-15 kt on the north side of a slow moving backdoor cold front. Similar winds continue through today, diminishing slightly and turning to the S-SE this evening into tonight as the front lifts back N. Seas will generally be around 3 ft during this time and around 4 ft 20+ nm offshore. S-SW sub-SCA flow is expected Thursday and Friday with 2-3 ft seas. Another front is forecast to cross the waters Saturday. Winds swing around to the N/NW Saturday and then NE Sunday. While daily chances for storms are anticipated through the week, the chance today is comparatively lower than the past few days. Still, showers this morning could pose an isolated waterspout threat in the western Chesapeake Bay. Chances for more widespread storms, some strong to severe, increase Thursday and Friday. SMWs will be issued as necessary. A moderate rip current risk is forecast today due to nearshore 3 ft waves and choppy surf. A low risk returns for the rest of the week. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed today for some additional calibration. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HET AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SW EQUIPMENT...AKQ  369 FXUS63 KLMK 080748 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds this afternoon and evening. * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today, an upper low, embedded in a weak upper trough, is expected to get picked up by zonal flow. Stronger upper flow remains well north of the region which is causing the Lower Ohio Valley to lack meaningful wind energy, but we continue to have plenty of moisture with precipitable water values between 1.8-2" covering most of our CWA. Our top row of Indiana counties is in an area with slightly less moisture with PWATs between 1.6-1.8". This afternoon, diurnal warming will once again increase MLCAPE instability to between 1,300 to 1,800 J/kg which might be slightly less than what we saw yesterday, but we can expected scattered slow moving showers and thunderstorms to pose an isolated flooding threat for any area that gets stuck under a heavy downpour. Highs are expected to reach into the 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Tonight, we start to see the pattern change as what was the upper low begins to move east out of the area. This will begin the movement of the higher PWATs eastward. The high PWATs won't make it out of the area before Thursday morning, but any remaining showers and thunderstorms will begin dissipating as we lose diurnal heating. Patchy fog will once again be possible as temperatures fall. Lows are expected to drop to either side of 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday, as the remnants of the former upper low gets carried off to the east, PWATs try to drop below 1.5". The day might not be completely dry, but any diurnally driven chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely be more isolated than they have been. As a surface low begins approaching the Lower Ohio Valley from the west, an increasing pressure gradient and added WAA will help drive slightly warmer temperatures, closer to 90 along and west of Interstate 65. Thursday evening into the early night, there is a chance that a system will continue moving east from the Plains and make it's way into the Lower Ohio Valley. Even though shear over the region is low, higher instability values could help an already developed system to sustain itself. This could bring a threat of strong to severe winds before weakening as the system moves off to the east later in the night. Friday into the weekend, a messy west to east oriented boundary is expected to set up and drop south through the Ohio Valley. This is expected to bring a return of PWAT values over 2". There could be some marginal instability at times, but overall the severe threat looks fairly low at this point. The main concern is expected to be flooding. Unlike the earlier activity Thursday evening which is expected to be quick moving, some of the later activity along the boundary Friday and Saturday could possibly be slower moving and see multiple rounds of heavy showers causing increased chances for flash flooding. If we get breaks in rounds of rain, the region will see less issues than if areas don't get a break from continuous showers. Early next week, precipitation chances look to finally drop as moisture gets pushed south of the CWA. High pressure behind the front is expected to bring clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures in the low 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 146 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The trend from the last few days continues with lots of moisture at the surface. Areas that saw rain showers earlier in the day are more likely to see fog tonight, but there is a decent amount of cloud cover that will limit cooling, limiting fog development to some degree. Parts of the region, mainly southern and eastern Kentucky, could see fog drop visibilities into IFR levels. This could happen at LEX, BWG, and RGA. More optimistic at SDF and HNB where MVFR could happen, mainly at HNB. Later in the day, more scattered slow moving showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...KDW  398 FXUS64 KLZK 080750 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 250 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon but with less coverage than days past. Rain chances decrease even more Thursday and Friday. - Temperatures will remain very warm but at or near seasonal averages. Heat advisories may be needed over the east Thursday and possibly Friday which will be the warmest days of the week. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as several upper level systems move through. Precipitation will not be restricted to just the hottest time of the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 |Not many value added changes to make to the current forecast this morning as guidance has remained consistent with previous thinking. As expected, convection did fire up Tuesday afternoon and quickly dissipated after sunset. Conditions across the FA this morning are generally clear with temperatures currently a few degrees warmer versus previous nights and range from the lower to mid 70s. The upper level feature that largely drove the convection the past few days is now over western Tennessee and slowly moving away. Any convection today will once again be diurnally driven but the CAMS guidance shows more sporadic coverage and a broadbrush 20% should suffice. With less cloud coverage/precipitation chances in the forecast, widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected. Convection coverage will diminish Thursday/Friday as upper level high pressure tries to nose in resulting in the warmest days of the week with highs well in the 90s for everyone. No heat related headlines will be needed today but heat index values over our eastern zones may require a heat advisory Thursday and possibly Friday. Precipitation chances increase this weekend as a messy pattern develops allowing several weak shortwaves to move through the prevailing flow. Moisture remains elevated and precipitation chances will not be restricted to just the afternoon through early evening hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances. Early next week, the upper pattern begins to morph with a strong upper level ridge developing over the 4 corners and into the northern plains. If this does come to fruition, precipitation chances go back down with NE upper flow developing but temperatures will remain quite warm && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 All convection has ended across the region but isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon through early evening. The isolated nature of the convection precludes adding them to any specific terminal. Otherwise widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period with the exception of brief MVFR conditions around sunrise. Winds will generally be light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 73 95 77 / 20 0 10 10 Camden AR 92 73 96 75 / 30 10 10 0 Harrison AR 90 73 94 77 / 20 0 20 10 Hot Springs AR 93 74 96 77 / 20 10 10 0 Little Rock AR 93 76 97 78 / 20 10 10 0 Monticello AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 0 Mount Ida AR 91 74 94 77 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 89 72 93 76 / 20 0 30 10 Newport AR 91 74 96 78 / 20 0 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 92 74 96 77 / 30 10 20 0 Russellville AR 94 75 97 78 / 20 10 10 10 Searcy AR 92 73 97 77 / 20 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 92 75 97 78 / 20 10 20 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...56