688 FXUS63 KDMX 080810 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited patchy fog in low lying areas this morning. - Thunderstorm chances return into this afternoon through Thursday morning. A few storms may produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall. - Additional rainfall around 1 to 2 inches Wednesday through Thursday may slow or worsen ongoing improvement along area rivers. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A look at observations across Central Iowa early this morning indicate temperatures in the low 70s, with dewpoints near the same values in some isolated locations under clear skies and calm or very light winds, leading to some patchy fog. While patchy fog may continue to form mainly in low lying areas until sunrise or so, a look further north into Minnesota shows a line of showers and thunderstorms near a boundary that are moving east-southeast with time. The convective debris (cloud shield) is extending southward, which has already started to move into northern Iowa and will likely continue the descent south through the morning, keeping fog formation relatively minimal. The aforementioned boundary is ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough that is currently over the Dakotas, which will continue to push east throughout the day, while the boundary gradually shifts slowly southeastward today. CAM guidance generally indicates that these showers and storms will not arrive into northern Iowa until around 17-18z, though this may be too slow, given how convection is at least slightly further south at this time and may result in an earlier arrival closer to mid-morning. If the current storms in southern Iowa do die before reaching the northern parts of the forecast area, additional storm development is expected to occur near/along this sagging front, with higher confidence in showers and storms entering northern Iowa by early-mid afternoon. Ahead of this feature, conditions across Iowa will be on the hot and humid side, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s, which will allow for instability to increase into the afternoon and remain through the evening, with values around 1500-2000 J/kg and shear values around 30 knots that will be favorable for storms to grow upscale to at least some degree. Less favorable lapse rates below 7 C/km and high freezing level heights (15 kft) will likely lead to difficulty in large hail development, though the damaging wind potential is much more favorable as storms gradually congeal into lines. The risk for a few isolated tornadoes also remains, though low, with SRH values below 100 m2s2 and limited directional shear. The Slight Risk per SPC was expanded further south and west to highlight the increasing potential for severe weather in these areas. A look at the environment for heavy rain potential indicates high PWAT values near 2 inches overhead towards the evening and overnight as this boundary nears the I-80 corridor, paired with the aforementioned deep warm cloud depths. The risk would increase further for flooding if any particular areas sees multiple storms, which would increase concerns substantially for new and renewed rises of rivers and also the potential flash flooding risk, especially in areas that received the several inches of rain late last week. Through Thursday morning, the expectation per various models suggests that storms should generally have descended into south central to southern Iowa, with the lingering potential for severe weather as forcing for lift increases with some presence of the low level jet into west/southwest Iowa. Total rainfall amounts by Thursday morning are indicated around 1-2 inches, with isolated 3 inches possible over western into west central Iowa and lower values elsewhere across the state. As the boundary moves across southern Iowa, there remains a signal of a developing MCV that tracks eastward, which would bring a renewed potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Recent guidance though has this feature further south into Missouri but still near southern Iowa, so will need to keep an eye on this. As this system departs later in the day, additional convection may fire off again over southern Iowa where the front may linger yet, though severe weather potential by this point looks more limited. The overall evolution of storm placement and track into Thursday will be heavily dependent on how the activity plays out later today into tonight, so trends will be very important to monitor. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 One more shortwave passes through the 500 mb pattern on Friday, bringing more shower and storm chances to the state, albeit to a lower confidence given a lot of the moisture transport will be focused to the south of Iowa. After this Friday wave, 500 mb ridging fills in aloft, keeping conditions dry and warm for most of the state through the weekend. Highs by next week climb back into the upper 80s and potentially the low 90s. This high pressure looks to stick around for a few days, before eventually breaking down late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions to prevail through Wednesday afternoon. Skies will be mostly clear overnight with light winds out of the north. Clouds will gradually increase throughout the day along with shower/storm chances. Confidence is medium (30-50%) that showers and storms will impact northern Iowa after 18Z. PROB30 groups have been continued at KMCW and introduced at KFOD and KALO to represent this. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Rivers and streams in central Iowa continue to see increased flows as water continues to route through the system. One river in central Iowa maintains a flood warning, which is the South Skunk River near Colfax (CFXI4) that has actively crested at moderate flood stage and will be falling below flood stage this afternoon. This portion of the South Skunk River flows into the Oskaloosa (OOAI4) area, but at this point should remain below it's minor flood stage. Other rivers within the Des Moines and Cedar River basins are also at increased levels as water works it's way down stream, albeit all below flood stage and continuing to recede. Additional rainfall later this week, especially Wednesday evening through Friday, could lead to slower improvement and/or additional rises on area rivers, depending on what basins this rain affects. The heaviest rain looks like it will fall over north central Iowa, and should be in isolated pockets. However, should one of these isolated pockets fall in the wrong spots, conditions may be exacerbated. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bury LONG TERM...Dodson AVIATION...TDR HYDROLOGY...Dodson  715 FXUS63 KGID 080810 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected this evening into tonight (mainly 7pm to midnight). Wind and hail are the primary threats. - Another round of thunderstorms is expected Thursday evening. A few strong to marginally severe storms remain possible, although coverage looks more spotty. - The main severe threat shifts south of the area for Friday, although a few isolated t-storms remain possible. - Dry and increasingly warm conditions return for the weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently, showers and weak thunderstorms stretch from northwest Kansas up through the Sandhills and are gradually moving eastward. These should continue to weaken early this morning, but a few light showers/sprinkles cannot be ruled out. This may linger through midday as well, although little to no impacts are expected. This afternoon, temperatures climb into the 90s for most of the area as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Isolated storms are expected to develop near this front this evening, with additional storms moving out of western KS/NE. Initially, storms may pose a threat for severe hail, transitioning to a wind threat as storms merge into one or more lines/clusters (probably favoring the southern half of the area). Output from CAMs does not suggest "high-end" winds, but gusts near 60 MPH seem likely on at least a scattered basis. Thursday trends cooler as the cold front moves through. As such, the primary t-storm threat shifts further south and west. Nevertheless, there is still a low chance for a few strong to marginally severe storms as storms arrive from the west later Thursday evening. Thunderstorm chances continue Friday, although coverage should be more spotty, and the main severe threat appears to be to our south near a stalled frontal boundary. Upper level ridging will then promote a mostly dry and warming trend through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Summer Heat... Hot weather with highs in the 90s will persist into Wednesday afternoon. A cold front sinking south Wednesday evening will bring thunderstorms to the area (Wednesday evening/night) and cooler weather for Thursday through Saturday (highs mainly in the 80s). A strong and unusually anomalous upper level ridge (600 decameters at 500 mb) is projected to initially build over the Rocky Mountains this weekend and slide east into the plains early next week. This will result in hot and dry conditions even by July standards. Our projected highs early next week in the lower to mid 90s may be too cool and would not be surprised to see upper 90s and even some 100 degree temperatures if this upper ridge patter fully materializes. Wednesday and Thursday Severe Thunderstorm Threat... We have two remaining decent chances to get moisture before the upper ridge builds in and precipitation is likely to shut off for awhile. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Nebraska counties will be Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Kansas counties will be Thursday night. Unfortunately this rain may come in the form of severe weather for some areas with the main threat being the wind gusts, but also at least a marginal hail threat as well. There are currently two main areas to watch Wednesday afternoon/evening. The first area will be along the cold front with afternoon heating mainly across our northern and northeastern areas where storms may initially develop, will probably be more isolated, but will be slower moving and capable of dumping heavier 1" plus rainfall amounts. There is lower confidence in this initial thunderstorm development. However, there is higher confidence that a more widespread line of thunderstorms will develop west of our forecast area later Wednesday evening associated with the upper level shortwave and then track east across much of our area Wednesday night. This later precipitation will bring mainly a severe wind threat to our area with some of these thunderstorms, rain amounts generally less than 1" but more widespread. The Thursday night rain chances are pretty high in the NBM (50-70%), but storms may end up being further south. Best chances for storms Thursday night will be south of I-80 and even higher across north central Kansas. The severe threat Thursday night should be more marginal than on Wednesday evening. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Other than possible thunderstorms Wednesday evening (mainly 23-04Z) VFR conditions are expected at EAR/GRI. Winds turn to the south/southwest early Wednesday and will turn to the north late in the period after thunderstorms depart the area. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Mangels  853 FXUS65 KTFX 080812 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 212 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail. - A few showers and thunderstorms in Southwest Montana Thursday and Friday afternoon. - Trending hotter toward the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday looking hottest. && .DISCUSSION... Meteorological Overview: Upper level troughing well off to the northwest over northern BC will progress eastward through the day today, eventually emerging into northwestern AB by the evening. Flow aloft across the region will largely be zonal, but be ever so slightly cyclonic in nature given the disturbance off to the northwest. This weakly cyclonic nature of the flow will combine with sufficient daytime heating to result in at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region by mid-afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings suggest wind will be the primary concern with the strongest thunderstorms, but increasing shear through the afternoon combine with respectable instability will yield a large hail threat as well. This activity exits eastward late evening or early overnight. The main upper level disturbance passes eastward into Thursday, though some lingering instability across SW MT will yield a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon. Thereafter an upper level ridge begins to build in across the Central CONUS and interior west, which will allow for temperatures to climb heading into the weekend. While the hottest conditions look to remain off to the east and southeast, afternoon temperatures rising well into the 90s in many areas this weekend will pose impacts to those with outdoor plans. Plan for plenty of hydration and rest breaks if planning to be outside this weekend. Heading into next week the ridge looks to slide eastward ever so slightly, which looks to open the door for some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. -AM Uncertainty: The main source of uncertainty today looks to be just how strong forcing will be for thunderstorm activity. As of now the main wave with the upper level disturbance looks to remain well north of the region. Forecast soundings show a small amount of convective inhibition, which would not require too much forcing to result in convective initiation. Should this forcing be slightly stronger, shower and thunderstorm activity would become much more widespread this afternoon and evening and vice versa. Looking ahead toward the weekend, the main source of uncertainty will be associated with just how hot it gets across the region. As of now there is roughly a 50% chance for afternoon highs to reach or exceed 100F on Sunday over the plains. -AM && .AVIATION... 08/06Z TAF Period While VFR conditions will be the rule overnight tonight and most of the day Wednesday, BR/FG over portions of northeastern Montana this evening will move westward, likely affecting KHVR and possibly affecting KCTB. After a dry morning, a few TSRA will develop across the plains, staring over the Rocky Mountain Front before moving eastward. A few of the storms may be capable of producing some gusty winds or hail east of Interstate 15. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 92 57 88 56 / 20 20 0 0 CTB 86 55 82 54 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 89 57 87 56 / 30 20 0 0 BZN 87 53 87 54 / 20 20 0 0 WYS 83 46 83 46 / 20 20 0 0 DLN 85 52 85 52 / 20 20 0 0 HVR 91 57 87 56 / 10 20 0 0 LWT 86 54 83 53 / 10 40 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  853 FXUS65 KTFX 080812 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 212 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail. - A few showers and thunderstorms in Southwest Montana Thursday and Friday afternoon. - Trending hotter toward the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday looking hottest. && .DISCUSSION... Meteorological Overview: Upper level troughing well off to the northwest over northern BC will progress eastward through the day today, eventually emerging into northwestern AB by the evening. Flow aloft across the region will largely be zonal, but be ever so slightly cyclonic in nature given the disturbance off to the northwest. This weakly cyclonic nature of the flow will combine with sufficient daytime heating to result in at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region by mid-afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings suggest wind will be the primary concern with the strongest thunderstorms, but increasing shear through the afternoon combine with respectable instability will yield a large hail threat as well. This activity exits eastward late evening or early overnight. The main upper level disturbance passes eastward into Thursday, though some lingering instability across SW MT will yield a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon. Thereafter an upper level ridge begins to build in across the Central CONUS and interior west, which will allow for temperatures to climb heading into the weekend. While the hottest conditions look to remain off to the east and southeast, afternoon temperatures rising well into the 90s in many areas this weekend will pose impacts to those with outdoor plans. Plan for plenty of hydration and rest breaks if planning to be outside this weekend. Heading into next week the ridge looks to slide eastward ever so slightly, which looks to open the door for some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. -AM Uncertainty: The main source of uncertainty today looks to be just how strong forcing will be for thunderstorm activity. As of now the main wave with the upper level disturbance looks to remain well north of the region. Forecast soundings show a small amount of convective inhibition, which would not require too much forcing to result in convective initiation. Should this forcing be slightly stronger, shower and thunderstorm activity would become much more widespread this afternoon and evening and vice versa. Looking ahead toward the weekend, the main source of uncertainty will be associated with just how hot it gets across the region. As of now there is roughly a 50% chance for afternoon highs to reach or exceed 100F on Sunday over the plains. -AM && .AVIATION... 08/06Z TAF Period While VFR conditions will be the rule overnight tonight and most of the day Wednesday, BR/FG over portions of northeastern Montana this evening will move westward, likely affecting KHVR and possibly affecting KCTB. After a dry morning, a few TSRA will develop across the plains, staring over the Rocky Mountain Front before moving eastward. A few of the storms may be capable of producing some gusty winds or hail east of Interstate 15. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 92 57 88 56 / 20 20 0 0 CTB 86 55 82 54 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 89 57 87 56 / 30 20 0 0 BZN 87 53 87 54 / 20 20 0 0 WYS 83 46 83 46 / 20 20 0 0 DLN 85 52 85 52 / 20 20 0 0 HVR 91 57 87 56 / 10 20 0 0 LWT 86 54 83 53 / 10 40 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  211 FXUS63 KTOP 080817 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms move across the area tonight. Locally damaging wind gusts and heavy rain possible, mainly towards north-central KS. - Storm chances continue Thursday and Friday, though details of each round will be dependent on how prior convection evolves. - Temperatures generally stay near average through the weekend, followed by a warming trend next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another quiet morning across eastern KS, but lee troughing and convection over the central High Plains are signs of change on the way. Surface ridging near the KS/MO will shift away today as the cut- off upper low over the Ozarks finally gets kicked eastward. As southerly low-level flow gets reestablished, today should be a few degrees warmer than the past few. Highs climb into the mid 90s for most, with heat indices generally 95-100. As lee troughing continues to deepen to our west, another round of convection will develop this evening across western KS and southwest NE. Persistent isentropic ascent around 700 mb should help keep convection going into north- central KS, particularly if an appreciable cold pool can develop. Effective shear has trended a bit stronger (to around 30 kts) compared to yesterday, so have more confidence now in damaging wind potential (gusts 60-65 mph) as storms approach north-central KS towards midnight. Increasing capping and weaker instability with eastern extent means storms should still weaken eventually as they approach eastern KS. Could also see some locally heavy rain totals of 2-4" across north-central KS, given 1.75" PWATs and some degree of training convection. While this could result in isolated flooding issues, the steady eastward motion of the system keeps the potential for larger flooding issues low, especially with the past few days of dry conditions. The overnight storms shift to the east by mid-morning tomorrow, with increasing confidence that this will push an outflow boundary/effective cold front southward through most of the area. So adjusted high temperatures Thursday 4-5 degrees cooler, closer to the HREF mean in the mid/upper 80s. Confidence is lower with additional precipitation chances Thursday afternoon into Friday. If the main boundary stays south of the area, as is trending more likely, that would reduce chances for PM severe thunderstorm development. Could still see some scattered showers and storms north of the boundary, mainly Thursday and Friday nights as the LLJ strengthens isentropic ascent. Could see some lingering rain chances through the weekend as the boundary stays nearby across Oklahoma and Arkansas. However we should generally dry out as the boundary sags farther south and upper ridging strengthens over the Rockies. By next week, this ridging will further strengthen and expand northeast over the Northern Plains. Very good consistency in the LREF for 500 mb heights to approach 600 dam somewhere over the north-central CONUS. So very good confidence in heat increasing next week, though at least through mid-week the most anomalous heat should stay to our north. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Some patchy ground fog is again briefly possible at KTOP towards sunrise, but otherwise VFR conditions with light south- southeast winds will continue for the next 24 hours. Any storms moving in from the west towards KMHK look to hold off until after the end of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Reese  361 FXUS65 KPIH 080822 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 222 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms - Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon for fire weather zone 427 due to thunderstorms - Drier weather returns for Thursday and beyond with hot conditions likely for the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect another round of thunderstorms this afternoon. Best chances are across the southern highlands through the Magic Valley and into the central mountains. Although isolated storms are possible across east Idaho. Dew points are still relatively comparable to what we've seen the past couple days. So expect a mix of wet and dry storms with gusty outflow winds likely. Underneath one of the thunderstorm cores, a quick 0.10 inches of rain or so is possible. A weak cold front, really more of a dry line, arrives Thursday. Timing is a bit slower than we've seen in previous runs. As a result we could still see some isolated storms Thursday if the dry air doesn't arrive by afternoon. Forecast remains dry for Thursday with uncertainty still high as to whether or not enough moisture is still around for storms. Hot and dry weather arrives for the weekend. Heat risk values continue to favor potential heat alerts over the weekend as highs approach 100 for many of our lower elevation communities. It looks like it may be a bit breezy over the weekend, so this could feel more like a blast furnace. Temps cool slightly by Monday, but still mid to upper 90s for the lower elevations. By Tuesday temps cool into the lower to mid 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Main concern is impacts from thunderstorms which could affect SUN, PIH, and BYI from mid afternoon into the early evening. These sites have the best chances of seeing storms with at least a 30% probability. Looking at lesser chances at IDA and DIJ. Gusty erratic outflow winds are the main concern with storms this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected once again this afternoon. The best chances for storms is across fire zone 427. Gusty outflow winds are likely near storms. Drier weather is likely for Thursday. Hot, dry and perhaps windy weather is expected over the weekend which could warrant additional red flag warnings. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ427. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...13  468 FXUS63 KILX 080825 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 325 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms today: Isolated afternoon thunderstorms (20% to 30% chance) may develop south of Interstate 72 today, ending quickly after sunset. - Heavy rain and flash flood risk Thursday through Saturday: A stalled front brings a 60% to 70% chance of rain and storms to central and southern Illinois. Slow- moving storms could trigger localized flash flooding, with a 30% chance of rainfall exceeding 2 inches south of Interstate 72. - Extreme heat or active storms next week: High uncertainty exists for mid-July. A shifting high-pressure system could bring either dangerous heat and humidity or periodic storm complexes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .Today through Tonight... The dominant feature this morning remains a pesky, cut-off upper-level low spinning near the lower Ohio River Valley. As a downstream ridge axis shifts eastward, slight low-level warming will take place with 850 mb temperatures nudging upward. This will translate to afternoon highs climbing into the upper 80s to near 90F. Diurnal heating combined with residual low-level moisture will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms (20-30% chance), primarily gridded south of the Interstate 72 corridor closer to the departing low's periphery. Any activity should quickly diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. .Thursday through Saturday Night... A notable shift in the synoptic pattern is anticipated by Thursday as strong shortwave energy digs into the upper Midwest. This will guide a weakening mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) and push a surface cold front into central Illinois by Thursday afternoon, ultimately breaking down the persistent ridge. However, since the main upper-level dynamics are forecast to outpace the surface front, the boundary will likely align parallel to the mid-level flow. Consequently, the front is expected to shear out and stall over central or southern Illinois from Friday into Saturday. This stalled boundary will serve as the primary focal point for unsettled weather to close out the week, yielding high probabilities (60-70%) for rain. Ahead of the front, a moderately to strongly unstable environment will materialize, with MUCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep- layer vertical wind shear is progged to peak near a modest 30 knots Thursday afternoon before weakening into Friday. While the enhanced shear profiles on Thursday could support localized, pulse-like downbursts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, the primary operational concern is shifting toward flash flooding driven by highly efficient warm-cloud processes. Precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast to surge above 2.0 inches, which sits well above the 90th percentile for July climatology. Consequently, training and back-building convective cells producing torrential rainfall rates will be the main hazard to monitor, especially late Thursday night into Friday when Corfidi upshear vectors dramatically lower in magnitude, signaling slow-moving or anchoring storm structures. And yet, model guidance continues to exhibit notable variance regarding the exact spatial placement of this boundary. Solution A (GEFS/GEPS) keeps the surface boundary and multiple waves of heavy rain further north squarely across our CWA, which would maximize the local flash flood risk. Solution B (ECMWF/EPS) has been steadfast in pushing the surface boundary considerably further south by Friday and Saturday, which would keep much of our CWA dry to finish the week. Blended (NBM) and ensemble (LREF) guidance lean toward a prolific, potentially multi-day rainfall event, showing about a 30% chance of exceeding 2 inches of rainfall through Sunday morning, primarily for areas south of I-72. Given the model divergence, we will continue to message this as a low- probability, but potentially high-impact rainfall event. .Sunday through Wednesday... Once the stalled front finally dissipates or shunts south late in the weekend, long-range guidance exhibits excellent agreement regarding the rapid expansion of a high-amplitude subtropical ridge over the central United States. Medium-range ensembles (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) consistently project an anomalous upper-level high centering over the Central Plains during the July 13-16 timeframe. Sensible weather across central Illinois during this extended period will depend heavily on the exact longitudinal positioning of this ridge core. A more western ridge orientation would place the local area under active, northwest flow aloft. This pattern would open the door for periodic, ridge-riding Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) that would temper afternoon temperatures via persistent cloud cover and convective debris. Conversely, if the ridge core migrates further eastward directly into the Corn Belt, a spell of dangerous, excessive heat and humidity could rapidly develop by mid-July. Given the typical model variance at day 6 and day 7, trends will be monitored closely over the coming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure over the region tonight will result in light and variable winds and primarily clear skies. This will set the stage for some fog development late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will set up out of the S/SW by midday with some diurnal cumulus around 030-040. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  529 FXUS65 KMSO 080826 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 226 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Breezy winds 15 to 25 mph on Wednesday will cause choppy conditions on area lakes. A few thunderstorms are possible in southwest Montana and Lemhi County. - Warmest temperatures of the summer this weekend through early next week. - Low relative humidity and increased west winds will result in elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday and Sunday A weak cold front moving through western Montana and north-central Idaho will briefly suppress the current high-pressure system today. While conditions will remain generally warm and dry, this frontal passage will generate breezy westerly winds, particularly across northwest and west-central Montana. Sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph are expected, which will likely create choppy and hazardous boating conditions on area lakes, with Flathead Lake being of primary concern. Concurrently, thunderstorm activity will increase across southwest Montana and Lemhi County compared to yesterday. The primary hazard associated with these storms will be sudden, gusty outflow winds. High-resolution models indicate a 20 to 30 percent probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph with storms along the Interstate 90 corridor from Garrison Junction to Butte, and along Interstate 15 south of Butte. There remains a lower probability of around 10 percent that isolated gusts could reach up to 55 mph in the most intense storms. High pressure will rebuild across the region heading into the weekend, temporarily reducing thunderstorm activity for Thursday and Friday while initiating a significant warming trend. By Sunday, daytime highs are forecast to reach the 90s across the valleys of western Montana, with triple-digit heat expected in the lower Salmon and Clearwater river valleys. The combination of an approaching upper-level jet streak bringing increased westerly winds, low daytime relative humidity, and soaring temperatures will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across much of the Northern Rockies by Saturday and Sunday. This early-season heat wave also introduces an increased heat risk for vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and the very young, prompting the potential issuance of Heat Advisories. Notably, the most abnormally hot conditions may develop along the Continental Divide into southwest Montana. Current projections show a 20 percent chance for temperatures in Butte to reach 100 degrees on Sunday, which would tie an all-time historical record set on July 22, 1931. Looking toward the middle of next week, forecast guidance indicates a potential shift in the prevailing weather pattern. Between July 13th and 15th, a significant surge of subtropical moisture is projected to enter the region. This influx of moisture would elevate the risk for widespread, rain-producing thunderstorms across western Montana and north-central Idaho, providing a distinct change from the dry, and windy conditions anticipated over the weekend. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to widely prevail across the airspace today, though a weak cold frontal passage will introduce localized aviation hazards. West to northwest surface winds will increase across northwest and west-central Montana terminals, with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph (15 to 20 knots) anticipated. Meanwhile, scattered convective activity will develop across southwest Montana and Lemhi County. The primary threat to aviation operations from these thunderstorms will be erratic, strong outflow boundaries. High-resolution guidance indicates a 20 to 30 percent probability of convective wind gusts exceeding 35 knots near flight routes and terminals along the I-90 and I-15 corridorssouth of Garrison Junction, with a 10 percent probability of localized gusts reaching up to 50 knots in the most intense cells. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$  812 FXUS61 KCTP 080831 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 431 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slightly lower PoPs Thursday for areas north of I-80. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Relative minimum in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. 2) Rain chances increase for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Relative minimum in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Areas of fog and low clouds have developed and will gradually dissipate after sunrise. A few slow moving showers are ongoing along a boundary that cuts across southwestern portions of the forecast area. Radar estimates show that a few localized areas in Bedford and Fulton Counties have seen rain totals as high as 2 inches since midnight, but rainfall rates have been low enough to prevent any worries about flash flooding. These showers should continue through the rest of the night, before dissipating through the morning. Upper level flow becomes more zonal today and weak high pressure at the surface sets up over the eastern half of Pennsylvania. As a result, expect skies to become partly cloudy for the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Model soundings show a relatively strong capping inversion over most of central PA this afternoon, which should limit the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. That being said, we may still see isolated to scattered showers and storms develop on the higher terrain of the Alleghenies. Any storms that do develop will be capable of producing heavy downpours, but the flash flood threat appears to be low. KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances increase for the end of the week. An upper level trough will set up over the northeastern US for the end of the week. A few weak disturbances moving through the trough will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop on Thursday, particularly over the southern half of the area. There is still some uncertainty regarding storm coverage, but any storms that do develop will be very efficient rain producers Most guidance shows precipitable water values climbing to near 2 inches along and south of the turnpike, tall, skinny CAPE profiles, and a sufficiently deep warm cloud layer in excess of 11,000 feet. This may support a flash flood threat over southern PA. Though shear is expected to be weak, there is some potential for storms to slowly organize as they move eastward through the afternoon. SPC has added a marginal risk for severe weather that covers the Lower Susquehanna Valley with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. A stronger shortwave will move through on Friday leading to additional thunderstorm development ahead of a cold front. Instability looks to be limited, but storms will still have a very moist environment to work with so heavy rainfall will be possible. Uncertainty begins to increase as we head into the weekend. Rain chances for Saturday will depend on how quickly the cold front from Friday drops south of the area. We could see scattered showers and storms if the front lingers over southern PA, but we would be mainly dry if it is quicker to slide off to the south. Sunday is looking like a mainly dry day as most guidance has the boundary well to our south. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Plenty of low level moisture still in place across the region. Areas east of a KBFD-KDUJ-KAOO line will likely drop down to IFR or LIFR in BR/FG for the back half of the night. Confidence is high (>70%) for LIFR in FG at KUNV as it has for the past several mornings. The remainder of sites will see a mix between VFR and MVFR conditions overnight, with alternations between the two possible. Visibilities are expected to be mostly VFR at these sites as well. Model guidance does indicate a slow improvement trend after 12Z Wednesday, thus have continued the trend of increasing visibilities and ceilings during the mid and late day. Winds will shift to a general southerly direction but will remain less than 8kts. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Mainly dry early. Numerous to many SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon. Intermittent impacts likely. Sat-Sun...Chance of showers and a few storms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Bauco DISCUSSION...Bauco AVIATION...Lambrech/Tyburski  905 FXUS63 KLSX 080832 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 332 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm temperatures continue today, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly south and east of St. Louis. - More widespread thunderstorms are expected Thursday through Saturday. Some storms could be severe Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An upper level low near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois today. The low will drift northeast and weaken, eventually opening into a more progressive wave this evening. This will bring the chance for convection associated with this system to an end for our area. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday, except over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois due to more extensive cloud cover and scattered convection associated with the upper low. The next upstream short wave is already producing convection over the northeastern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. The wave will dig farther into the Midwest today, and then the next behind it will move into the Midwest late tonight, further amplifying the upper flow. Guidance shows another round of convection over eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that moves into northwest Missouri this evening. The convection will continue moving east overnight, and could reach central and northeast Missouri before 12Z Thursday morning, although it should be weak by that time and coverage may be limited. Carney && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Latest guidance suggests tonight's convection will generate an MCV which will track across the area on Thursday. Additionally, the composite outflow/surface front will drift across northern Missouri into central Illinois during the afternoon and provide a focus for convective development. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s along with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s and steepening lapserates are forecast to produce very unstable conditions with CAPE in excess of 2000 J/Kg. Guidance also shows increasing deep- layer shear up to around 35kts which would support organized convection. Think the most likely scenario is that thunderstorms develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV/composite cold front over central or northeast Missouri and get organized into a broken line which moves quickly east-southeast. Damaging winds are the most likely threat, though some large hail is also possible given the CAPE profiles in model soundings. Think the severe thunderstorm threat should end during the evening as instability wanes. However, the low level boundary looks like it will remain draped over our area, most likely across the Ozarks, but this is uncertain. Models show a west-southwest low level jet developing during the evening which rides over the boundary producing moderate to strong moisture convergence. Convection is therefore likely to redevelop in the vicinity of the boundary and possibly train along it which would pose a heavy rain threat. Friday's weather continues to depend heavily on convective trends Thursday night. However, current thinking is the boundary will remain over our area, possibly drifting northward through the day as southerly flow increases ahead of another wave. The GFS develops 2000+ J/Kg of CAPE during the afternoon coincident with 30+ kts of shear which will produce another round of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening which could be severe. The long wave upper level ridge over the western U.S. begins strengthening and building east Friday night into Saturday. This will eventually push warmer air aloft into the Mid Mississippi Valley and finally cap the low levels. Additionally, the downstream long wave over the eastern U.S. will drag a drier airmass into the Great Lakes and Midwest. This will turn the low level flow over our area to the northeast and finally the surface boundary south. However, it's unclear how quickly this will happen. Guidance PoPs have increased Saturday and Sunday as the models build the ridge eastward more slowly in the latest runs. Additionally the LREF cluster analysis is showing variance in the position and amplitude of the ridge as it strengthens this weekend. This lends a great deal of uncertainty to the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, particularly across the Ozarks where the boundary would likely linger for the longest time. While PoPs now linger into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday continue to look warm and dry under the influence of the upper level ridge. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 931 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF. While a few weak showers have developed just southeast of STL this evening, this activity is not likely to directly impact the terminal and should diminish by the start of the period. Light winds are expected overnight, with a low chance for shallow fog at river valley sites (SUS/JEF/CPS), but given that fog struggled to develop last night under very similar conditions, probabilities remain too low to include in the TAF at this time. VFR cumulus is expected again tomorrow afternoon, with another limited opportunity for weak showers near St. Louis terminals in the afternoon. However, once again the majority of this activity is expected to remain southeast of the terminal, and the probability of direct impacts to terminals remains too low (less than 30%) for TAF mention at this time. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  069 FXUS62 KFFC 080839 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 439 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered (15-30%) showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening, increasing through the weekend. A few storms may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph. - Heat index values peak each afternoon between 95 and 105. Heat advisory for portions of Southeast GA Today. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across the area this morning. A slightly drier airmass has moved in across the region which should help keep diurnally driven convection to a minimum this afternoon. We are still under West to Southwesterly flow with temps again expected in the 90s so some isolated showers and thunderstorms area still expected this afternoon and evening. SPC has the entire state under a general thunderstorm risk today. Best timeframe for convective storms looks to be between 2-10PM. Moisture begins to slowly increase across the region Thu so will see another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms but becoming more scattered in coverage. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Heading into the latter part of the week and weekend, flow aloft becomes more broad while the Bermuda high continues to churn over the Atlantic. Southwest winds return, advecting moisture into the southeast once again. For this, shower and thunderstorm chances increase into the weekend. By the end of the weekend, flow aloft responds to a stout ridge building out west, turning upper winds N/NW. At the surface, guidance does indicate a weak frontal boundary that could cross the area toward the beginning of next week. If this materializes, a brief period of drier air and a small break from the heat. Long range models show northern Georgia highs in the mid to upper 80s by Sunday with low 90s elsewhere. Overall, diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances daily and some cooler temps possible over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Some SCT high clouds streaming across the area but mainly CLR skies this morning. Ceilings and VSBYs should stay VFR except in and around any afternoon convection. With a bit drier airmass across the region, Diurnally driven convection should be very isolated so have decided to keep precip out of the TAF sites Today. Winds are light and variable this morning but will see winds increase into the 3-8kt range out of the W to SW just after sunrise. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 95 75 95 75 / 10 10 20 20 Atlanta 93 76 93 75 / 10 10 30 30 Blairsville 85 66 85 67 / 20 10 40 20 Cartersville 92 73 92 73 / 20 20 30 30 Columbus 95 76 94 75 / 10 10 30 20 Gainesville 93 73 92 74 / 10 10 20 20 Macon 95 76 95 75 / 10 0 20 10 Rome 91 72 91 72 / 20 20 40 20 Peachtree City 92 73 92 73 / 10 10 30 20 Vidalia 98 78 99 78 / 10 10 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ074-084>086-096>098-104>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....Patterson AVIATION...01  180 FXUS63 KLOT 080842 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 342 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm today with highs in the mid-upper 80s. - A corridor of heavy rainfall may occur somewhere in the region Thursday PM, though confidence in local impacts remains low. The strongest storms may be capable of gusty to locally damaging wind gusts, mainly south of I-80. - Mainly dry, warmer weather expected this weekend through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds are light and variable to calm early this morning amidst an expansive area of surface high pressure. Radiational cooling under clear skies may lead to patchy fog development, mainly southeast of a Pontiac, IL to Valparaiso, IN line where dewpoints depressions are lowest. Can't fully rule out very shallow and locally dense fog over low-lying open areas and fields. Any fog that does develop will quickly erode after daybreak. The mid-upper ridge axis will gradually shift east today allowing a return of southwesterly low-level flow to the area, which paired with mostly sunny skies will lead to a seasonably warm day with highs in the mid-upper 80s (upper 70s to lower 80s possible along the Lake County, IL lakeshore where winds lean southeast in the afternoon). To our northwest a shortwave and associated trailing cold front will lead to thunderstorm development across IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. This activity may attempt to drift into northwest Illinois very late tonight, likely in a decaying phase. Nevertheless, can't fully rule out gusty outflow winds and a few lightning strikes northwest of a Dixon to Waukegan, IL line after midnight. Looking ahead to Thursday through early Friday morning, the surface front and/or residual outflow boundary may stall over the area during the day. While there has been an overall southward trend in model guidance over the past 24 hours with respect to where the corridor of heaviest rainfall is most favored, there remains notable model spread in where this boundary ends up as well as the strength and position of a separate convectively augmented wave (and associated MCV) from the Central Plains that is expected to move across the region. Even with a southerly shift in its track, continue to have concerns that localized areas or even a narrow corridor of heavy rainfall may materialize within the vicinity of the aforementioned stalled boundary on the north side of the system (hinted at in the 6Z HRRR/NAMNest). Given the local susceptibility to flooding from recent heavy rains, will need to continue monitoring model and observational trends closely. The strongest storms will be capable of precip loaded gusty to locally damaging wind gusts, though the better potential for severe weather exists just south of the area into central and southern Illinois where the stronger mid-level flow is expected. The forecast for Friday will be largely dependent on Thursday, though in general the greatest coverage of showers and storms is favored south of the area. Have maintained precip chances (20-40%) south of the Chicago metro to account for any showers and storms that develop on the northern edge of another wave expected to move across central and southern Illinois. North to northeasterly low-level flow will lead to slightly cooler temperatures, in the lower 80s for inland areas and 70s near the lakeshore. While a few diurnally driven showers and storms can't be ruled out on Saturday, upper level ridging expands across the central CONUS over the weekend into early next week which should lead to mainly dry conditions into the first part of next week with temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. Given we will be on the northeast periphery of the ridge we will have to monitor the potential for thunderstorm complexes rounding the ridge across the broader region toward midweek. Petr && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No major forecast concerns expected for this TAF period as high pressure will remain in control. Light (speeds around 5 kt) and variable winds are expected tonight before directions settle into a southwesterly orientation by Wednesday morning. Speeds will increase on Wednesday into the 10-12 kt range with a chance for the occasional mid to upper teen kt gust. Any gusts that materialize Wednesday afternoon should diminish after sunset but with the high shifting east and a disturbance beginning to approach the area it looks like winds will stay elevated (around 10-11 kts) Wednesday night. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies tonight with diurnal cumulus clouds developing Wednesday afternoon resulting in scattered VFR skies. However, there has been some patchy 4000-5000 ft stratus developing across southern WI and northwest IL. While the expectation is for these clouds to remain transient, there is a signal for some of these clouds to thicken up and possibly mix down into some patchy fog near RFD. Since confidence on fog or low stratus is low confidence have opted to forgo a formal mention in the RFD TAF, but did add a FEW040 mention to tease the potential. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ001-INZ002- INZ010-INZ011. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  222 FXUS63 KJKL 080845 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 445 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally dense fog will affect much of the area through the morning commute. - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. - Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility through the next 7 days, with a threat of at least isolated flash flooding each day. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 445 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 08Z sfc analysis still shows a weak and ill defined pressure pattern over eastern Kentucky. This is allowing the diurnal cycle to be the main driver of the weather. At night, the convection dies off along with much of the clouds allowing very limited radiation cooling and the development of fog - becoming dense in the valleys. Again due to high humidity there is minimal terrain differences showing up in the temperatures. Specifically, readings are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s with similar dewpoints, amid light to calm winds. An SPS is again in effect for areas of dense fog early this morning across the entirety of the JKL CWA. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast even as they indicate more amplification to end the work week. Initially, they all depict a positively tilted 5h trough in place over the Tennessee Valley through western Kentucky. This trough will fill and dampen through Thursday as it slowly drifts east with very small height falls for the area. Late in the period the westerlies at mid-level running through the northern Ohio Valley start to speed up and settle south toward Kentucky. This essentially sets the stage for additional short waves - some probably convectively induced from upstream - to impact the area into the start of the weekend. Given the good enough agreement among the models through 00Z Friday, the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids with some adjustment applied for very minor terrain details in temperatures tonight. As for PoPs, consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage were included from the latest CAM runs. These were again smoothed and fitted to a reasonable diurnal trend - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics possibly extending the convection later into the nights than the past couple of them. Sensible weather features typical summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be warm and humid with mainly afternoon and evening convection. Overlaid on this fairly predictable pattern will be the potential for outside influence in the form of waves at mid level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly on Thursday and beyond. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - becoming cumulative by week's end with isolated flood concerns peaking. In addition to the excessive rain, we will also need to be on the look out for organized convection from those strengthening and nearing westerlies bringing perturbances closer to the area such that damaging wind gusts could be possible from any more organized storms Thursday afternoon and evening - especially over our western zones. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Thursday evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday. The previous long term discussion follows: Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast. Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday, as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the Intermountain West. For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall, and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday. Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday, with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Already the fog and low stratus are starting to affect the majority of the TAF sites at the 06Z issuance with IFR and MVFR conditions reported. This is expected to bring generalized IFR or worse conditions, with the poorest expected to be in valleys and where significant rain occurred on Tuesday. Look for the fog to dissipate later this morning a couple of hours after sunrise, possibly converting to or merging with a low cloud deck before clearing out. VFR conditions then return until more showers/ thunderstorms develop after daytime heating builds. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL  476 FXUS64 KHUN 080848 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the lower 90s each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Temperatures across north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee are currently in the lower to mid 70s according to surface observations. Lows may ultimately be few degrees cooler (especially over portions of NE AL and southern middle Tennessee), but not expecting temperatures to cool too much more over the next few hours before sunrise with dew points in the lower 70s. With low dew point depressions, fog remains a concern through early this morning. In fact, the Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows either fog development or low stratus (or a combination) for many areas over NE AL, north-central AL, and into southern middle Tennessee. There have been a couple sites that have reported dense fog over the past hour or two as well, but this is not widespread. Regardless, we will continue to monitor observations in case a Dense Fog Advisory becomes necessary. If you encounter fog while traveling this morning, make sure to use your low beam headlights and keep plenty of space in between you and the vehicle in front of you. Low ceilings and/or visibilities will persist through early this morning but erode through mid- morning. Our focus then shifts to the low to medium (30-50%) chances of showers and storms this afternoon and into this evening. Current thinking and our forecast remains on track for this afternoon (see details below), with highs topping out in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Previous Discussion: A mid/upr closed low centered over the Mid-Miss Valley region will transform into more of an open wave and become increasingly sheared as it moves to the NE on Wednesday. Dynamic lift on its SE flank may once again help to trigger isolated to scattered areas of showers/storms. It is still difficult to forecast which areas may be more favored for convection tomorrow. One might reasonably suspect areas closer to the parent upr low. However, convergent low-level flow evident in streamline analyses (albeit weak) appears favored in southern portions of the area, which is collocated with a more favorable thermodynamic environment. Thus, the argument could be made for slightly higher POPs in southern areas. Apart from these other forcing mechanisms, convection will tend to be the result of differential sfc heating and outflow boundaries. The latest guidance suite suggests perhaps a weaker thermodynamic profile for Wednesday (than Tuesday), although some strong updrafts and thus downdrafts could occur capable of producing strong winds, but the threat for severe weather appears to be very small. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 On Thursday the sheared tendrils of mid/upr vorticity following the parent upr low/wave will cross the area, aiding in the the potential for shower/storm development once again. This would probably be favored in eastern areas per the guidance suite. POPs are thus a little higher there during peak heating in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, mean mid/upr-lvl flow will become more zonal in nature in the TN/OH Valleys amidst an increase in upr westerly flow in the southern branch of a split-flow jet. This will help to enhance shower/storm development to our north with the potential for outflows leading to further convection in our area. This actually goes for both Thursday and Friday. Thermodynamic profiles look downburst"y" both days, with steep low-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture, and high vertical theta-e differences present. Currently, we're just outlooked for "general" thunderstorm activity, which may be owing partly to the coverage expected, however, this may need to be watched over the coming days. Outside of any thick clouds and shower/storm presence, conditions will continue to feel summer-like with heat indices still pushing 100 degrees both days. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures will be near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much of a threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration. Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may also result in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next few hours; however, guidance indicates that lower VIS and CIGs (down to IFR/LIFR) will again occur later tonight through early this morning due to fog and/or low stratus development. Have included this in in the TAFs for both terminals by 10/11Z. Expecting these conditions to erode through 13Z or so, with VFR returning for mid to late morning. Then, another day of low to medium (20-50%) chances of showers and storms is forecast. There is uncertainty in exactly where and when the storms will develop and track; however, these may bring temporary reductions in VIS and CIGs as well as gusty winds and frequent lightning where they do develop. Any activity is slated to then wane through the evening hours. Outside of storms, expect calm winds at night with westerly winds around 5 knots or so during the day. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26/KDW SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...26  512 FXUS65 KRIW 080849 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 249 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another warm day with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms (up to a 2 and 5 chance), mainly in the afternoon and evening. The best chance will be East of the Continental Divide. - Thunderstorms chances trend down and temperatures trend upward starting Thursday and especially this weekend. - The hottest weather over the year and potentially in some time arrives this weekend, with some all time record high temperatures possible. The best chance all time record high temperatures will be on Sunday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 I have a question for you this morning. What do these things have in common: gas pressure and volume, supply and demand and speed and travel time. If you answered inverse relationships, you would be right. And that is what we will have over the next week, as the temperature goes up, the chance of convection goes down. Today will be somewhat similar to yesterday. Another shortwave will be moving through the area. We also continue to have fairy steep low and mid level lapse rates. Instability values are also decent, with some portions of the area (mainly the northeastern portions of the area) having over 1000 J/Kg of CAPE and lifted indices as low as minus 5. There will be one difference though, and this will be a trend over the next few days. And that is that precipitable water values are a lower than yesterday, especially West of the Divide. But even East of the Divide, values are 10 to 20 percent lower. It is still around 130 percent of normal though. As a result, it will be another day anywhere from a 1 in 5 to 2 out of 5 chance of a shower or thunderstorm, with the best chance in the afternoon and evening and across northern and far southern Wyoming. The lowest chance will be across the west with less than a 1 in 10 chance. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, near to somewhat above normal. As for any stronger storms, the best chance would be over Johnson County where there is a marginal risk, with strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail the main threats. Strong wind gusts will be a threat with any shower or thunderstorm though, even further west where dew point depressions will be larger. The downward trend in convection continues on Thursday as drier works a little further east. There will still be some convection around, but most would be confined to East of the Divide again and especially in Johnson and Natrona Counties where the deepest moisture will remain. Temperatures look largely similar to today. The inverse relationship really begins on Friday as ridging over the desert southwest begins to push northward with rising heights and temperatures aloft. This is the day when below normal precipitable waters will push across the entire area. We can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm, mainly over the northern mountains, but even here the chance is less than 1 out of 5. Temperatures will also begin to really rise, with the normally warmer spots seeing high temperatures approaching 100. It is Saturday when we really begin to throw some coal into the blast furnace, otherwise known as a death ridge. Heights across the area will climb to over 5950 meters at 500 millibars, and bring definitely the hottest weather of the year. The NBM ensemble gives a greater than 1 out of 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees in locations 5200 feet or below, with a nearly 100 percent chance in the warmer spots likely from Thermopolis up to Greybull. All locations below 6500 feet have a 4 out of 5 chance of temperatures over 90 degrees. Some records will likely fall on this day. With the dry air inplace and warm temperatures aloft, the chance of convection looks just about nil. However, the heat looks to peak on Monday. This mornings guidance shows 700 millibar temperatures climbing as high as 24 degrees celsius. This combined with nearly full sunshine will lead to one of the hottest days in quite a while. Ensemble guidance shows a nearly 100 percent chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees below 5500 feet, and places like Rock Springs, Green River and even Jackson have a greater than 1 out 3 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees. When we go up to 105 degrees, ensemble guidance gives a greater than 4 out of 5 chance of this from Thermopolis to Greybull, with Riverton even having a 1 out of 2 chance. And going up even further, to 110, there is a 2 out of 5 chance a place like Greybull or Worland could reach this temperature. We could see some all time high temperatures fall on this day as the 5980 500 millibar ridge will be centered just about over Wyoming. We should begin to take a couple of degrees off of the highs on Monday as the ridge retreats to the east just a bit. However, most areas below 5500 feet will again have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees. And with the ridge moving East, some moisture, mainly of the mid level variety will begin to come around the back side of the ridge. A couple of storms are possible on Monday, but chances increase more on Tuesday and into Wednesday. With the low levels remaining rather dry, these thunderstorms would produce more wind than rain though. Convection should be on the isolated side though with most locations not seeing one on any given day. Temperatures will drop somewhat from the blast furnace levels of the weekend, but look to remain above normal through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1058 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Prevailing VFR conditions through the TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon. Coverage will be less than Tuesday afternoon. Western terminals (KJAC, KBPI, KPNA) should miss out on most of the convection Wednesday afternoon and evening, although there is still a low chance (around 10-15%). Most terminals have PROB30 groups for -TSRA and strong VRB wind. Conditions may drop as low as IFR in the strongest storms if they move directly over a terminal. Isolated rain showers will move through southern portions of the area, with some showers in the vicinity of KRKS overnight and early Wednesday morning. Wind will be light tonight into Wednesday morning. Wind should become breezy (10-15 knots) Wednesday afternoon, but will be quite VRB due to numerous outflow boundaries from showers and storms. Isolated wind gusts to 50 knots are possible with the strongest storms Wednesday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...Rowe  035 FXUS63 KBIS 080859 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 359 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures remain today, followed by a strong warming trend through the weekend. - Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. - Very hot this weekend and early next week, with daily high temperatures and maximum heat indices around 95 to 105. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A broad quasi-zonal upper level flow will continue over the region through the remainder of the workweek, followed by significant upper level ridging over a large portion of the western and central Conus. This could bring a significant prolonged heatwave to western and central ND this weekend into early next week. Currently, the latest satellite imagery show a number of waves moving through the broad upper level flow. Latest radar shows an area of isolated showers situated over northwest ND. Patches of low stratus/fog have been noted under breaks of high level cirrus, but as of yet nothing widespread. As we head into the early morning hours guidance suggests, and it seems reasonable, given the low T/Td spreads we will see an increase in stratus and fog. Guidance does favor western and southern portions of the forecast area. For today, forecast soundings suggest instability will remain weak this morning. However with an approaching shortwave currently indicated over eastern Montana, there may be enough forcing to keep a mention of showers in the forecast. Soundings dry out this afternoon and mostly dry conditions are expected. Afternoon convection off the higher terrain in Wyoming and southeast Montana should remain south and east of the forecast area later today, but an evening thunderstorm can not be ruled out in the far southwest. Another wave tracking along the International Border may fire convection over central Montana, and if it holds together could move into far western ND towards daybreak Thursday. The severe threat by this time would be low. On Thursday, the aforementioned wave tracks across the state and a surface trough lingers over the area. It will become very unstable over western ND Thursday afternoon with RAP forecast MLCAPE values around 3000 J/Kg. Bulk shear is marginal, ranging from 25 to 35 knots. Forcing for ascent will be modest with only weak impulses moving through a slowly building ridge. If there is enough forcing to overcome some low level capping, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across most of the forecast area Thursday. Shear vectors are not completely perpendicular to the surface boundary but enough so that a supercell thunderstorm can't be ruled out. The main threats Thursday afternoon and evening would be large hail to the size of golf balls and 60 mph winds. After Thursday, attention shifts to the potential for a prolonged heat threat through the weekend and into early next week. Friday will see daytime highs climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s, but the most impactful heat will be over the weekend and early next week. Daytime highs of 90 to 100 on Saturday, and 95 to 105 Sunday may necessitate the need for a long term Heat Hazard, especially since overnight low temperatures remain at or above the 70 degree mark. At this time, Sunday looks to be the most oppressive day with heat indices above 100 degrees across most of the forecast area, and up to 108 degrees in a few areas. However if you consider the HeatRisk and WBGT, a case could be made for a long term hazard encompassing Saturday through Monday, given the warm overnight lows. We still have a while to ponder, but if current forecast trends hold, it will definitely be a veryhot weekend. With a lot of outdoor events going on, we will definitely be increasing our heat related messaging. The oppressive heat should limit thunderstorm activity over the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure will build over the forecast area tonight behind exiting showers and thunderstorms. Widespread low stratus and fog are possible over much of the forecast area tonight with western and southern areas currently favored. MVFR to IFR visibilities and ceilings are expected where stratus/fog develop with LIFR conditions possible. Low stratus will lift by midday with VFR conditions expected thereafter. Generally light easterly flow through the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH