493 FXUS63 KEAX 080905 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 405 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather and Slight (2/4) risk for excessive rainfall mainly west of I-35 tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. - Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather Thursday evening for areas east of the KC metro. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. - Rain chances stick around through Sunday. Highest rainfall totals from today through Sunday are forecast to fall north of I-70 with a widespread 1-3" with localized higher amounts towards NE MO. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today will be one of the last dry days of the week with mostly sunny skies and highs reaching the lower 90s. Clouds to start to build in from NW to SE this evening ahead of our next disturbance. Guidance shows mid-level shortwave moving through the northern Plains late tonight which will generate an MCS. So far, the environment still looks better (lift and shear) over the NE/IA border just to our NW. Though, we do expect the MCS to clip our western counties Thursday morning as the MCS starts to dive south from SE NE. With this MCS, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. SPC has issued a Slight risk (1/5) for severe weather mostly just for Atchison co since the better lift will be closer to the front that'll be draped over NE/IA. A Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather has also been issued for areas mainly west of I-35 and north of the KC metro. WPC issued a Slight risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall over the NW portion of the state and a Marginal risk (1/4) for areas mostly along and west of Highway 65. The slight risk was likely issued because of the 1 hr flash flood guidance over that area as it'd only take 1-2"/hr rain rates to generate flash flooding. The ERO outlook encapsulates the areas that are the most likely to get clipped by the MCS early Thursday morning. The MCS will get most of its moisture from the LLJ overnight into Thursday. Once the LLJ decouples on Thursday morning, the MCS is expected to dissipate. Seems that the MCS gets caught up moving along the shortwave and pushes northeast through the rest of the state as it slowly dissipates. This will be one of those days where the morning convection will heavily influence the evening convection. Guidance has clouds sticking around until early afternoon which is why we've lowered the high temperatures on Thursday for areas mainly north of I-70 by a few degrees to account for the clouds impacting daytime highs. Areas south of the interstate may not be impacted by the morning convection and may stay less cloudy throughout the day. Those areas will also be closer to the warm front that'll be hanging out over AR and will likely experience more WAA. Heat index values will range from 100-104 degrees for those areas. If we can destabilize over NW MO, there could be a few pop-up thunderstorms initiating along the leftover MCS boundary near the KC metro by late afternoon. The question isn't if we can destabilize, it's where we're going to destabilize and where the boundary ends up stalling out for Thursday afternoon convection. Again, if NW MO can conjure up a proper environment, storms will start there. If not, storms may initiate a bit further east of the KC metro near the Highway 65 and I-70 intersection over north-central MO. Wherever these storms decide to initiate, they will signal the start of the next round of severe weather for our area. The MCS appears to get a boost from a surface low or shortwave of some sort on Thursday evening and that's when the system starts to get itself together. SPC has upgraded portions of the area to a Slight risk (2/5) for severe weather. The Slight risk covers a pretty large portion of the state and starts east of the KC metro and goes just south of Chillicothe down to Lebanon, east past St. Louis. We are expecting damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain to be the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. These individual storms will merge into an MCS and push east through the evening/overnight hours. Referring back to the most recent July 4th MCS that moved through the area, there were several counties that lost power with that storm system. With winds possibly close to that speed once again, have multiple ways to receive warnings ahead of any power outages that may occur and be prepared for nighttime severe weather. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The warm front lifts north for the weekend and the latest model guidance has it settling near I-70 for Friday through Sunday. This front, coupled with several vort maxima forecast to eject from the passing wave, will bring us a rainy weekend. Chances for rain are 30-60% for Friday with the highest chance for rain occurring overnight into Saturday. Saturday features a 30-40% chance for rain for most of the day and Sunday has a 15-30% chance for rain with chances decreasing through the day. Due to the placement of the front, highest rainfall totals from today through Sunday are forecast to fall north of I-70 with a widespread 1-3" with localized higher amounts towards NE MO. The rain/clouds moving in this weekend will help to keep temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 80s. With the start of next week expected to be dry, high temperatures are forecast get back into the mid 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions under generally clear skies are expected through the period. Winds should be light and variable through the overnight period before becoming generally southerly by mid to late Wednesday morning, remaining light. The current TAF period should remain dry, but showers and thunderstorms may be possible after 6z Thursday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Williams  454 FXUS65 KFGZ 080905 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 205 AM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...For most, mainly hot and dry conditions are expected through the end of this week. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue over portions of eastern and central Arizona Wednesday, but expect less activity Thursday and Friday. Then, Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up this weekend and into next week. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon through at least Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...The ridge axis that has been along the AZ/NM border for the last few days has started to flatten and retrograde to the west this morning. Before this fully develops, expect another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Navajo and Apache counties, as well as northern Gila County and possibly eastern Yavapai and southern Coconino counties. Moisture values are decent over much of the CWA, but the deepest moisture still resides south of the Mogollon Rim and across much of southeastern Arizona. Any convection moving into this air mass this afternoon could develop into isolated, yet fairly strong storms. By Thursday and Friday, the ridge position to our west will drive most moisture south of the CWA, with the only activity likely being over or just south of the White Mountains. This will be short-lived. By Saturday and Sunday, the ridge rapidly rebounds, strengthens and then moves into a very favorable flow pattern for the North American Monsoon. This is starting to look like our official start, as all of next week is now looking quite robust. As the moisture pool wobbles in and out of the CWA, we expect very warm temperatures to continue, possibly not peaking until Saturday or Sunday. The Extreme Heat Warning for the Grand Canyon is in effect through Saturday evening. Other lower elevations will experience similar conditions, but are not in any EHW products. That is about it, moisture teases us for a few days and then, it surely looks like the Monsoon begins. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION...Wednesday 08/06Z through Thursday 09/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA east of KPGA-KINW through 08Z. Another round of ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA after 18Z-20Z Wed, with the highest coverage south of a KPAN-KINW-KRQE line. Winds light and VRB overnight and then SW 10-20 kts again after 18Z Wed. Gusty/erratic wind gusts up to 35 kts possible with shower activity. OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/06Z through Saturday 11/06Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA possible SE of a KPAN-KRQE line on Thursday and Friday afternoons. Winds SW-W 10-20 kts each afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Most areas will remain hot and dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over eastern Arizona Wednesday, with more isolated activity as far west as a Flagstaff to Payson line. Thunderstorm activity Thursday mainly over the White Mountains. Stronger storms either day will be capable of producing wetting rains. Friday through Sunday...Hot and mostly dry. Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountain region on Friday, before activity starts moving back west and north Saturday and especially Sunday. Expect southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph on Friday. Winds becoming lighter and more variable for Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ006 below 4000 feet. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  520 FXUS61 KRLX 080905 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 505 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains on track and is consistent with the previous package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and into the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Locally heavy rainfall will remain a possibility throughout the rest of the work week and into the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place amid some forcing from a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves. Steering flow remains light today, at 10 knots or less, but does pickup from Thursday into the weekend as upper air dynamics begin to rule. This will mean mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today will become more driven by the upper air pattern for Thursday into the weekend. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend. With the ground already saturated in many locations, localized flash flooding remains a threat. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... After patchy dense fog lifts, expect a cumulus deck to form by mid morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms causing restrictions this afternoon and evening. Dense fog can be expected again Wednesday night where rainfall occurs this afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog lifting could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/08/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L M H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M L L L M M H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions associated with thunderstorms remain possible into the weekend, more likely in the afternoon and evening hours. Dense fog is possible each night in areas that receive rainfall the afternoon and evening before. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY  290 FXUS63 KSGF 080916 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 416 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less than 20% chance for isolated thunderstorms in south central Missouri this afternoon. Gusty winds to 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms. Most areas stay dry. - Rain chances increase to 40-70% Thursday night through Saturday. Slight risk for severe storms Thursday night. Marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall Thursday through the weekend. - Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 It's a clear and calm night this morning with temperatures in the low 70s. The surface low pressure system is moving east into the Ohio Valley and taking its cloud cover with it. Clear nighttime skies and mild temperatures with little to no wind will allow for the development of some patchy fog in south central Missouri during the early morning hours. Winds will slowly become southerly today as weak warm air advection returns. As the low to the east continues to produce its diurnal convection, it is possible some of the precipitation will make it into the southeastern reaches of the CWA this afternoon. This potential is low, and PoPs remain largely 20% or less. Otherwise, we'll enjoy mostly sunny skies with fair weather Cu today, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and light southwest winds. Lows will be a few degrees warmer tonight with the return to southerly flow, in the upper 60s our east to the mid 70s in the west. Slightly stronger winds overnight should preclude any fog risk tonight into tomorrow morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The breaking news of the forecast tonight is that central Missouri has been included in an upgrade to a Slight risk (2/5) for severe storms on Thursday by the SPC. As we transition into an upper level pattern characterized by zonal-ish flow with many embedded shortwaves and pockets of energy, a string of active weather begins to set up. Weakening showers and storms move in from the west early Thursday morning while a more robust system is expected to follow late Thursday night, which is responsible for the Slight risk. Short- term models and CAMs have come into better agreement on this solution over the last few runs. However, there still remains some uncertainty regarding how warm/unstable the airmass is able to become after morning precipitation moves through central Missouri. If cloud cover clears quickly and destabilization is maximized, the primary severe hazard would be damaging winds with a linear storm mode. The warmest days of the period will be Thursday and Friday, when some areas may see a heat index of 100 degrees or more. This signal returns again early to mid next week. Chances for thunderstorms continue for the next several days as southerly flow continues, shortwave energy traverses the high pressure to our southwest, and the ingredients come together each afternoon. Some days will see higher chances and better coverage than others; Friday and Saturday, PoPs are currently up to 60-70% in some areas while Sunday into early next week have a closer to 30-40% chance to see afternoon thunderstorms(as the high itself moves closer and suppresses convective activity). There is some risk for excessive rainfall for part or all of the area all the way through at least Sunday Temperatures stay pretty steady after Friday, with southerly flow and precipitation working to cancel out their affects. Highs will generally land in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Flight conditions overnight will be VFR at the regions TAF sites with clear skies and generally light and variable surface winds. Some patchy fog could be possible again in valleys across the eastern Ozarks tonight into early morning. There is a low chance for some brief MVFR visibilities at the KBBG site around sunrise and across portions of the eastern Ozarks. Additional diurnal afternoon isolated to scattered cloud cover will again develop Wednesday afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Hatch  341 FXUS61 KBGM 080918 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 518 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant change with the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity are expected across Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania today and tomorrow. 2) Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the region Thursday and Friday before quiet weather and high pressure build back in for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level low has shifted east with weak high pressure building in behind it. This will allow skies to gradually clear with winds becoming light and variable. Morning patchy fog is expected to burn off soon after sunrise. A cool start to the day will quickly give way to warming afternoon temperatures as abundant sunshine and the strong July sun angle help temperatures climb into the 80s across much of the region. Overall, a quiet and pleasant day is in store. Attention then turns to a weak shortwave approaching later this evening, bringing a small chance for showers across portions of the Southern Tier, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected elsewhere. KEY MESSAGE 2... Southwesterly flow develops Thursday as 850 mb temperatures rise into the +16 to +18 degrees C range. Surface temperatures should climb well into the 80s, with a few lower 90s not out of the question. Heat indices in the 90 to 95 degree range will be possible, especially across the Lake Ontario Plain and interior valleys. As temperatures and dew points increase, so too will the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A southern wave moving east across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic during the early afternoon will trigger isolated showers and storms from the Southern Tier of NY south into northeast PA. Later in the day a northern wave approaching from the northwest will generate a broader area if convection that progresses northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours. Model guidance continues to indicate favorable instability, with ML CAPE values around 800-1000 J/Kg and steep low level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest the cap may weaken enough for storm development, though shear remains on the weaker side and may limit sustained or mature convection. The early afternoon activity over northeast PA should remain relatively weak, with greater concern for strong to locally severe storms accompanying the incoming front from the northwest. Western and central NY will have more time to erode the inversion and tap into slightly stronger deep layer shear. Sounding profiles also support a localized flash flood threat, with long skinny CAPE, PWATS of 1.5 to 2 inches, and warm cloud depths around 11-12 kft. This threat appears greatest from Thursday afternoon through the overnight period, particularly across northeast PA. Temperatures Friday will be slightly cooler, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s, though dew points remain elevated in the 60s and lower 70s. A lingering boundary may serve as a focus for additional convection Friday afternoon and evening. The threat for stronger storms Friday into Friday night will need to be monitored as deep layer shear increases in response to a modest jet streak aloft and embedded shortwave. By Friday night a longwave trough will move through the region, ushering in a cooler and less humid air mass for the weekend with highs mainly in the 70s and lower 80s. Rain chances will also diminish considerably as a drier pattern settles over the area. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Chances for fog development is decreasing, therefore taken out of all terminals. VFR conditions expected through the rest of the period.Outlook: Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM. Friday into Saturday...Cold front could move in and stall, leading to persistent showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT/ES AVIATION...KL  440 FXUS64 KMOB 080922 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 422 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. - A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper trough extending from the lower Great Lakes to east Texas has an embedded cutoff low centered over the confluence of Ohio and Mississippi rivers visible on water vapor imagery. This trough will lift northeastward and diminish through Thursday morning as it gets caught up in increasingly westerlies. An upper ridge over Florida, a small portion of the southeast states, and the eastern Gulf will persist into the weekend as a series of weak shortwaves pass over the Ohio River region. The upper ridge will get nudged westward over the weekend as a stronger shortwave dives southeastward from the Ohio River to the eastern seaboard with a large upper high building over the central U.S. putting our region under northwest flow aloft. A weak surface low is expected to develop offshore on Monday under the trough and send a backdoor surface cool front into the region late Monday night. The diurnal pattern continues through the near term with isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each day as a seabreeze pushes inland and dissipates through mid- evening. Rain chances will increase to 30-50% on Saturday, followed by scattered to numerous coverage on Sunday and numerous to widespread coverage on Monday. As with all summertime convection, instances of stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty surface winds and locally heavy downpours can be expected. High temperatures the rest of the week will average just above normal, with lows about 4 to 9 degrees above normal. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 72 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with isolated short-duration instances as high as 110 degrees. /22 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period at area TAF sites. Brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities can be expected in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and early evening hours. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 95 76 93 76 / 20 10 30 0 Pensacola 95 80 93 81 / 20 10 30 10 Destin 93 82 92 82 / 20 10 30 10 Evergreen 93 74 93 73 / 10 20 40 10 Waynesboro 94 74 93 73 / 20 20 40 10 Camden 91 74 90 74 / 10 20 40 10 Crestview 96 76 93 75 / 30 10 40 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  529 FXUS65 KVEF 080925 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 225 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and warming temperatures will continue through the end of the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday. High pressure builds aloft and temperatures are on the rise through the rest of the week. Afternoon high temperatures will top out between 5 and 7 degrees above normal and Las Vegas has a 40 to 50 percent chance of a high of at least 110 degrees each afternoon between Thursday and Saturday. Hot daytime temperatures combined with warm overnight low temperatures will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for most locations. This level of heat will affect those who do not have access to sufficient cooling and hydration, as well as those who are especially vulnerable to heat related illnesses. The position of the high should maintain dry conditions and afternoon breezes, which prompt elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region today and tomorrow. A classic monsoon setup develops this weekend as high pressure becomes established over the Four Corners region and southerly flow advects moisture into the Desert Southwest. PWAT values of an inch or more cover areas along and southeast of Interstate 15 on Sunday, at which point the best precipitation chances will exist over high terrain in northwestern Arizona. Moisture increases and POPs spread north through the first half of next week, generally favoring high terrain where orographic lift favors thunderstorm formation. Finer details on timing and location of storms should become more apparent over the next few days. Other than storm potential, lowering heights aloft and the moisture influx should help lower temperatures by a few degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Similar wind patterns to the past few days are expected through the upcoming TAF period. Light southwest winds tonight will become light and variable Wednesday morning. Winds around 18Z may vary 150 to 180 (true) as speeds pick up to around 8KT. Isolated gusts over 15KT are possible with these south to southeast winds. By 21Z, the winds become southwest and gusts more frequent, gusting over 20KT through the afternoon. Winds will diminish like most evenings as southwest wind at 8KT or less develop for the evening and overnight period. VFR skies persist. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 18Z through 04Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package..Other than at KDAG where west winds at 10-15KT will persist through the night, light winds under 10KT are expected across the region. On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will develop by the afternoon with speed around 10KT and gusts 15-25KT. Winds will diminish after sunset for much of the region, except KDAG where gusty west-southwest winds are expected to develop around 00Z. VFR skies expected through the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  821 FXUS65 KPSR 080932 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 232 AM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures will continue through the rest of this week resulting in areas of major Heat Risk and Extreme Heat Warnings through Thursday across lower desert locations. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also continue over higher terrain areas of eastern Arizona today and to a lesser degree for Thursday and Friday. - The weather pattern will become very favorable for moisture import and more widespread thunderstorm activity by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... A modestly strong high pressure ridge continues to impact the region bringing hot temperatures and areas of Major HeatRisk. The ridge is becoming more elongated with a new ridge center forecast to form off the coast of southern California later today. Despite this subtle shift, H5 heights over the Desert Southwest will remain stable between 593-596dm through most of Thursday. Forecast highs peak today and/or Thursday across the region, ranging from 110-114 degrees across the south-central Arizona lower deserts to 112-117 degrees across southeast California and far southwest Arizona. Overnight lows will also be very uncomfortable as low level moisture has increased enough to prevent efficient nocturnal cooling. Lows over the next couple of nights will range from around 80 degrees over the cooler rural lower desert areas to as warm as the lower 90s in central Phoenix. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect for the bulk of the area through Thursday evening. Moisture within the region has improved since last week, but it mostly lies on the eastern fringes of the ridge as dry air continues to advect northeastward through southern California into the western 2/3rds of Arizona. Moisture profiles across the area are expected to remain stable today, but then somewhat decrease Thursday into Friday. Today's daytime convection should be very similar to what occurred yesterday with most of the scattered showers and storms remaining east of the Globe area, but another modest outflow is likely to form and attempt to push into eastern portions of the Phoenix area. Decreasing shower and storm coverage is then expected for Thursday as moisture decreases slightly and the upper level pattern becomes less favorable for deeper convection. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... The weather pattern will undergo a noticeable shift Friday and through the weekend as the high pressure ridge quickly tracks northeastward, with the center reaching Utah Saturday. The ridge is then forecast to expand, strengthen, and become the main driver of strong moisture advection back into the Desert Southwest going into next week. Friday should be another mostly dry day with hot temperatures still being the main concern across the area. Forecast highs are shown dipping a couple of degrees, but lower desert highs are still likely to top 110 degrees with small pockets of Major HeatRisk remaining, mainly across southeast California. Very limited convective potential on Friday should be confined to southeast Arizona with less than 10% PoPs across our CWA. As the high center finally shifts to our north into Saturday, it should first open up eastern and southern Arizona to an easterly moisture fetch. Moisture is still likely to be fairly limited on Saturday with afternoon convection currently favored more across southeast Arizona, but once the steering flow shifts out of the east moisture advection and storm chances are expected to spread westward through the rest of Arizona starting Sunday. Although forecast uncertainty remains fairly high going into next week, ensembles generally agree we will enter a period of active monsoon weather. The subtropical high is favored to stay positioned over the Northern Plains into the Central Rockies for much of next week which will allow for fairly persistent moist easterly flow into the Desert Southwest. Ensemble member forecast PWATs show a wide spread, but also a meaningful average increase likely pushing past 1.3-1.4" starting Sunday. Forecast PoPs increase into a 20-40% range starting Sunday and generally stay there through the first half of next week. Any notable easterly waves moving through the flow will surely help drive our convective potential, but pinpointing those this far out is a dubious proposition. Outside of the expected increase in monsoon storm activity, temperatures should slip further toward seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0900Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Gusty outflow winds this evening from distant storms will be the main aviation weather issue throughout the TAF period. Through this afternoon, the overall wind pattern will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with light easterly to variable winds early this morning shifting out of the west by the mid/late morning hours with some occasional afternoon gusts in the upper teens to around 20 kts. Thereafter, thunderstorm activity materializing well to the east and southeast of Phoenix is likely to send an outflow boundary from the south and east early this evening with potential peak gusts between 20-25 kts. Winds should diminish a few hours after the outflow passage with easterly winds prevailing through the overnight hours. FEW mid to high level clouds will persist through the TAF period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns under clear skies can be expected throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, southeasterly winds will prevail throughout most of the period with the exception of a temporary shift out of the west early this evening. At KBLH, winds will generally fluctuate between the south-southeast to south-southwest with occasional afternoon gusts between 20-25 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds with isolated lightning over the far eastern districts the next few afternoons will be the main fire weather concern. Outside of any potential outflows, winds should favor light and diurnal trends with typical afternoon breeziness around 20 mph. Afternoon RH values between 10-15% will be common across the region. Overnight recoveries will offer only limited to modest relief as MaxRH values range generally between 20- 45%. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal through the middle of the week, with the lowest elevations reaching between 110- 115 degrees. A decrease in monsoon activity is likely late week, before picking up again and becoming more widespread by early next week. Moisture levels and humidities should also improve considerably by early next week, alleviating much of the fire weather concerns. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ530>534- 536>551-553>555-559-560-562. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ562-564>570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  972 FXPQ50 PGUM 080936 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 736 PM ChST Wed Jul 8 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Visible satellite imagery reveals cloudy skies from Guam to partly cloudy skies over Tinian and Saipan, as well as pulses of outflow boundaries from the southwest. Tanapag buoy shows combined seas around 10 ft, with altimetry data indicating 15 ft seas well west of the region. && .Discussion... The Marianas remain within the tail-end of a monsoon trough from the southwest, producing gusty winds within heavier showers and multiple outflow boundaries that produced brief, heavy showers over the islands throughout the day. This pattern is expected to continue while gradually diminishing as STY Bavi continues its trek away from the Marianas. To the east, a subtropical ridge extending into a col will take place over the Marianas through the next few days, bringing light and variable winds starting after midnight. The associated moisture from the monsoon trough and upper-level support will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast Thursday, followed by a drier regime Friday through Saturday. There is the possibility of a tropical disturbance to track near or through the Marianas over the weekend, but uncertainty is high regarding strength and timing, so scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were kept until midweek to reflect the potential for unsettled weather. && .Marine... STY Bavi and its associated monsoon trough will continue an elevated west swell and a secondary southwest swell, producing hazardous seas to small craft and hazardous surf along west and south facing reefs. As this system continues moving away, swells and surf will gradually diminish, so most hazardous conditions will potentially subside by the weekend. A high risk of rip currents exists along north, south, and west facing reefs at least through Friday afternoon. && .Tropical Systems... Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) is located over the Philippine Sea near 17N133E, or roughly 640 miles northwest of Yap, and 680 miles north of Palau. Bavi continues to move west at around 13 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 155 mph. Bavi is expected to make a turn toward the northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed through Thursday, potentially exiting the region west of 130E by Thursday afternoon. In the meantime, the broad, surging monsoon pattern feeding into Bavi will continue to produce hazardous seas and surf across far Western Micronesia. A weak, disorganised tropical disturbance is located near Kosrae at roughly 6N162E, Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Invest 97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across the area with little organization. Generally more showers are located within the convergent northeast flank, across the western Marshall Islands, and Pohnpei and Kosrae States. 97W is still rated "sub-low" by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, meaning it is not expected to develop over the next several days, but will continue to be monitored for potential development. Pulses of shower and isolated thunderstorm development are expected to continue as it drifts westward over the next day or so. For more information on Super Typhoon Bavi, please refer to the Public Advisory issued by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW. && .Eastern Micronesia... Wet and unsettled weather will continue at Pohnpei through Thursday with high-end scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to persist. A weak circulation, Invest 97W, is located near Kosrae this evening with isolated to scattered showers observed in the vicinity of the island. These showers will likely fill in at Kosrae this evening as convergence behind the weak circulation moves in from the east. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will then continue at Kosrae through Thursday. Ensemble guidance suggests that Invest 97W will lift slowly to the west- northwest over the coming days with little to no development expected. Shower chances will top out around low-end scattered at Majuro into Friday with shower coverage expected to increase throughout Friday and into the weekend. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will continue through the rest of week. Seas consist of a west-northwest swell and a small, southeast swell at Pohnpei and Kosrae and an east swell, a small, south swell, and a small, west swell at Majuro. Gentle to moderate winds are expected through the rest of the week at Kosrae and Pohnpei with light to gentle winds expected at Majuro. A shift to southerly winds is forecast starting tomorrow at Kosrae and spreading to Pohnpei by Friday morning as Invest 97W lifts to the west-northwest. Periods of fresh south winds will be possible at both sites starting on Thursday. && .Western Micronesia... Satellite late this afternoon reveals swaths of middle and upper level cloud cover across much of the region, mainly associated with deep convection around Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) to the north- northwest, and within the convergent trailing monsoon pattern in its wake. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms prevail within the rain bands to the north and northwest of Yap, and to the northwest of Palau. For Chuuk, scattered showers are seen within the weakly convergent northerly flow that extends across the state. Scattered showers will continue for Yap and Palau through at least Friday as the unsettled monsoon pattern overhead gradually moves away. Late this weekend into early next week, models highlight an unsettled pattern developing across much of the region that is in part associated with a developing tropical disturbance over eastern Micronesia, Invest 97W. Periods of numerous locally heavy showers will be possible for Yap, Palau, and Chuuk starting around Sunday night. Palau and Yap remain within the surging monsoon flow to the south of Super Typhoon Bavi (09W). Scatterometry from this morning revealed a broad area of 30 to 35 mph winds across the northern Republic of Palau and 20 to 30 mph winds across Yap Proper. Altimetry and Yap buoy data depict hazardous seas around 12 to 15 feet, generated by elevated northwest swell from STY Bavi, elevated southwest monsoon swell, and wind waves. Currently, a Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect for Yap due to steep dangerous seas around 15 feet. The elevated swells are also generating dangerous surf to 16 feet along north and west facing reefs and shorelines, and a High Surf Warning remains in effect through late tonight. For Palau, a High Surf Warning and Small Craft Advisory remain in effect. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for both Yap and Palau. As Bavi continues to pull away toward the northwest over the next few days, the monsoon pattern will shift northwest with it, and winds, seas, and surf will gradually subside. With this, the Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect through late tonight for Yap, followed by a Small Craft Advisory. The High Surf Warning and the Coastal Flood Statement are set to expire late tonight for Yap and Palau, followed by a High Surf Advisory. Seas and surf are expected to remain hazardous through Friday afternoon and advisories may be extended if swells and surf remain elevated for longer than anticipated. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Thursday for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for MPZ001>003.High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Thursday for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST Thursday for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas: Mesa East Micronesia: Whisnant West Micronesia/Tropical: DeCou  947 FXUS61 KCAR 080935 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 535 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Update for 12z aviation discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wildfire smoke will remain over the area today leading to milky skies, in areas not overrun by high clouds. Small chance in smoke mixing down toward the surface on Thursday afternoon over the north. 2) Increasing heat and humidity today through late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wildfire smoke will remain over the area today leading to milky skies, in areas not overrun by high clouds. Small chance in smoke mixing down toward the surface on Thursday afternoon over the north. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Wildfires across Western Quebec will continue to be trapped over the area today per the latest HRRR smoke guidance. A milky appearance to the sky will be present across the north and west this morning and should be able to be seen over southern areas this afternoon as low- mid clouds move east and out of the area. Fortunately the smoke will remain aloft today, but there are some indications that it may begin to mix down tomorrow afternoon with pre-frontal trough moving through the north per 00z HRRR and RRFS. KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity today through late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Temperatures will climb to above normal today with highs in the mid- upper 80s across the north this afternoon. Southern areas will be able to reach into the low-mid 80s but will be delayed in warming with low clouds and fog expected early this morning. Mostly sunny skies expected across the north this morning (albeit a little smokey) with skies becoming mostly sunny this afternoon over Downeast as low pressure moves east. A pre-frontal trough will be approaching the area tonight from Canada with dewpoints rising into the 60s ahead of it. Expect an area of showers to move into the north and west during the evening with the main energy forcing heading twd the Maritimes shortly after midnight, with a break in the showers overnight into the late morning hours. By this time, the trough should be over central areas with showers re-developing over the Central Highlands as next piece of upper level energy moves in. Given marginal instability present along the trough, cannot rule out thunderstorms by mid-late afternoon. It looks like the greater threat of storms on Friday, will be from Bangor to the coast. It's possible the front will move through fast enough to where any storms are south of the area Friday. Cannot rule out a strong storm for Thursday or Friday, however the bigger threat looks to be locally heavy rainfall out of any storm that develops. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Today...VFR. Light winds becoming S 5kts in the afternoon. Tonight...Mainly VFR, though cannot rule out patchy coastal fog at BHB. Could also see MVFR cigs move into FVE late. S winds 5kts or less. Thursday...VFR/MVFR possible in showers and possible -tsra. W winds 5-10kts. Thursday Night-Friday...VFR/MVFR in showers and tstms. W winds 5kts becoming NW 5-15kts Friday morning. Friday Night-Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts, gusts to 20 kt. Saturday Night-Sunday...VFR. N-NW winds around 5kt. && .MARINE... Visibilities reduced in patchy fog this morning. Seas will remain below 5ft over all waters, with wind gusts remaining below 25kts all waters through Thursday. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the waters Thursday night into Friday. Winds/seas below SCA conditions this weekend with just some passing clouds. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. &&$$ DISCUSSION...21/JMM AVIATION...21/JMM  248 FXUS61 KALY 080941 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 541 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) introduced in the Day 2 SPC Convective Outlook focused in the western Adirondacks. Damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storms. Lowered dew points Thursday and Friday to reduce coverage of potentially hitting heat advisory criteria, especially on Thursday. Changed shower/thunderstorm wording on Thursday to coverage (isolated/scattered) rather than probabilistic (slight chance/chance) given weak forcing. WPC also introduce a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in far northern Herkimer and Hamilton County on Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The combination of increasing heat and humidity presents a low chance for isolated areas where heat index values near 95 degrees in the Greater Capital District on Thursday. However, given isolated nature, heat advisories are unlikely. 2) There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and Friday as a cold front approaches with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms tomorrow in the western Adirondacks. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After a dry and very pleasant day today, southwest flow redevelops tomorrow as high pressure pushes off the East Coast. 850 hPa isotherms rise to +16C to +18C as subtle warm front lifts northeastward from the mid-Atlantic. Deep enough mixing as morning sun mixes with increasing afternoon clouds should support temperatures warming into the mid-80s to around 90 in valley areas. Latest probabilistic guidance shows a 30 to 60% chance that valley areas from the Greater Capital District into the Lake George/Saratoga Region will reach or exceed 90 degrees on Thursday. This combined with increasing humidity values gives a medium chance for heat index values to reach the low to mid 90s. Given the isolated nature of the heat index values around 95 degrees plus HeatRisk categories mainly only around Minor (level 1 of 4), heat advisories are unlikely. KEY MESSAGE 2... A very warm and increasing humid air mass will be in place both Thursday and Friday as weak boundaries and height falls approach ahead of a broad trough slowly shifting eastward through the Great Lakes. Despite the warm/humid air mass, latest medium range guidance continues to show overall low instability values both days mainly near or under 1000 J/kg likely due to weak lapse rates and rather warm temperatures aloft from weak upper level forcing. Deep layer shear values, however, are still sufficient to support some organized convection ranging 25-30kts tomorrow and increasing to 30-35kts on Friday as a cold front approaches and the trough moves overhead. Given a pressure trough approaching from Western NY/southern Canada and a few shortwaves tracking mainly near and south of I-90 on Thursday, shower and thunderstorm coverage looks isolated to scattered. Convection looks to initiate during the typical peak heating hours. Highest chances for showers/storms remain south of I-90 closer to the incoming shortwaves and in the western Adirondacks as the leading edge of the trough/stronger winds aloft slide eastward. The latest HREF shows a 10% chance for updraft helicity values to exceed 20m/s Thurs P.M, suggesting some stronger updraft potential. Latest SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook introduced a marginal risk for severe weather into the North Country and Western NY, grazing our western Adirondacks areas. Damaging winds are the primary hazard from any severe storms. Cloud coverage increases on Friday so temperatures should fall a few degrees but humidity remains elevated which will support instability values similar to Thursday. Overall forcing remains weak with broad troughing from the GreatLakes shifting overhead but with minimal height falls and a weak sfc cold front also approaching. The increased sfc forcing should lead to more widespread precipitation Friday afternoon into the evening from west to east. While deep layer shear increases, overall instability still looks low given warm temperatures aloft and weak lapse rates (especially if cloud coverage remains rather high) so severe weather potential again appears low. Latest SPC convective outlooks keep the Northeast just in a general thunder both days with WPC outlining far northern Herkimer/Hamilton County in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Thurs into Thurs night likely due to incoming cold front. Even still, we do not expect flooding issues. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thu...Skies continue to clear tonight with radiational fog already underway at KGFL with vis bouncing between MVFR and IFR. While ALB and PSF remain VFR, the low dew point depressions indicate fog will likely develop now through 08 UTC with IFR vis/cigs persisting for 1 to 3 hours before the morning sun burns it off. Less confidence at POU where clouds have lingered so only show a TEMPO group for IFR vis/cigs from 07 - 11 UTC. Then, high pressure today will quickly result in clearing conditions and VFR conditions returning by 12 - 13 UTC. Winds will remain light and variable through the end of the TAF period at all sites. Additional fog may redevelop again tonight, highest confidence at GFL, given increasing humidity and mainly clear skies once again. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...31  327 FXUS63 KIND 080943 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 543 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry today with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, low chance for rain in southern Indiana - Strong to severe storms and flash flooding possible late Thursday into Thursday night - Additional rain Friday through the weekend with pockets of flooding && .DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Overview. Dry and pleasant weather is expected for today with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. On Thursday, a strong cold front will move into the region, bringing a risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding Thursday night. This front will then stall over the area, keeping chances for showers and storms in the forecast from Friday through the weekend and into early next week, leading to the potential for flooding with total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches. Today through Thursday. The broader synoptic pattern today features mid-level ridging centered over the Ohio Valley that will gradually suppress southward as a northern stream shortwave trough digs across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure positioned over the eastern Great Lakes will maintain a dry easterly to southeasterly low-level flow across central Indiana. Forecast soundings exhibit a notable mid-level subsidence inversion along with deep dry air. This dry airmass and large-scale subsidence will inhibit convective development today, keeping the entire forecast area dry with afternoon high temperatures rising into the mid-80s. The synoptic pattern transitions rapidly on Thursday as a northern stream shortwave trough deepens over Ontario, driving a surface cold front south-southwestward toward the area. Ahead of this boundary, a robust low-level jet will advect an anomalously moist, tropical airmass northward. PWAT values are modeled to surge toward 2.00 to 2.25 inches, which sits well above the 90th percentile for early July. HREF and ensemble guidance indicates rapid destabilization Thursday afternoon ahead of the front, with MLCAPE expanding to 1500- 2500 J/kg. Convective initiation is expected along and ahead of the front by late Thursday afternoon and evening. While deep-layer shear remains modest at 25-35 knots, linear forcing along the front will support organized multicell clusters and transient supercell structures. Damaging downburst winds and isolated severe hail represent the primary convective hazards. A flash flooding threat will develop Thursday night. As the surface front slows down and aligns parallel to the mid-level westerly flow, Corfidi vectors indicate a high potential for cell training. Warm-cloud depths exceeding 12,000 feet will optimize warm-rain processes, yielding exceptionally high precipitation efficiency. Localized rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour are anticipated, capable of producing widespread flash flooding and areal flooding across central Indiana overnight. Friday Through Tuesday. From Friday through the weekend, the surface frontal zone is forecast to become quasi-stationary across the Ohio Valley as it encounters a flat sub-tropical ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast states, blocking its southward progression. Within this weak steering regime, successive low-amplitude mid-level shortwaves will track along the frontal zone, interacting with the lingering tropical moisture reservoir where PWATs remain elevated between 1.75 and 2.00 inches. This setup will support daily rounds of convective clusters and multi-cell arrays through Sunday. Medium-range ensemble guidance (GEFS and EPS) exhibits high consensus regarding a prolonged, heavy rainfall footprint across theOhio Valley due to this stalled boundary. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 60-80% chance of widespread total rainfall exceeding 2.00 inches across central Indiana through Sunday evening. Within corridors experiencing persistent convective training or repeated cell tracking, probabilistic clusters indicate a 30-40% chance of localized totals exceeding 4.00 inches. Given the saturated antecedent conditions expected from Thursday night's convection, this additional rainfall will sustain and exacerbate risks for river flooding and ongoing areal flooding through the weekend. The unsettled pattern will gradually transition into early next week as the main upper-level trough shifts into eastern Canada, allowing northwest flow aloft to develop over the Midwest. While the primary stalled frontal boundary will diffuse or push slightly south of the state, embedded shortwaves within the northwest flow will maintain daily chance-level probabilities (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures throughout the period will remain near or slightly below seasonal normals in the low to mid-80s due to widespread cloud cover and precipitation, though high ambient dewpoints in the lower 70s will maintain elevated humidity levels. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 542 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impacts: - None Discussion: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of brief MVFR vsbys at BMG through 13Z. Diurnal cu is expected to develop towards 15Z with coverage expected to remain FEW to SCT. This cu will dissipate towards 00Z with high cloud coverage increasing through the night tonight. Winds will generally be light and variable through the TAF period, predominately out of the north through daybreak, then west to southwest during the day. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...White DISCUSSION...White  554 FXUS65 KBOI 080948 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 348 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across portions of southern Idaho. Storms may produce outflow wind gusts up to 40-60 mph, possibly moving through the Treasure and Magic Valleys. - Gusty winds late this afternoon and evening, with breezy conditions continuing each afternoon through the week. - Hot temperatures continue, hottest Friday and Saturday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Moisture will linger over southwest Idaho today under southwesterly flow aloft, bringing another round of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain south of the Snake River in far southern Idaho and lift northeast. Storms are expected to weaken upon reaching the Snake Basin, but a few storms will persist as they enter the Magic Valley and southern Boise Mountains. Lightning and gusty winds 40-60 mph will be the primary hazards from storms, with localized blowing dust possible from outflows. Brief heavy rain is also possible in stronger storms. Thunderstorms should track to the east of the Boise Metro, but outflow gusts to 40 mph from distant storms are possible. Otherwise today, expect similar temperatures to yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 90s in the lower elevations with 80s to lower 90s in mountain valleys. Late this afternoon and evening, northwest wind gusts 20-35 mph will develop in many areas as an upper trough over British Columbia tracks east and sends a weak, dry cold front through our area. Breezy conditions with gusts 15-30 mph will continue into Thursday, strongest across southern Idaho. Breezy and dry conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions. Westerly flow aloft will push moisture and the accompanying thunderstorm threat to our east. High temperatures will cool by 3-5 degrees. On Friday, a strong upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest will begin to build north, bringing hotter temperatures. Lower valleys will reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. For Boise, there is around a 50-60% chance of reaching triple digits for the first time this season. Southwest flow aloft will bring breezy conditions to the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... The center of a strong upper level ridge will move across the Rocky Mountains and into the Northern Plains this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will remain very hot on Saturday with lower valley highs around 100 degrees. Temperatures should cool a couple degrees for the rest of the period as the ridge axis moves east. However, a slight shift west of the ridge would produce hotter temperatures. Expect locally breezy conditions each afternoon. Ensembles are in excellent agreement that monsoonal moisture will work its way north around the ridge into our area early next week. This will reintroduce the potential for showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain. An increase of clouds and precipitation will also likely aid in the slight cooldown. Ensemble mean precipitable water values climb to 150-200% of normal, or above the 90th percentile. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding especially on recent burn scars could be a concern with deep moisture in place. Additionally, after a period of hot, dry conditions, lightning on dry fuels could be a concern for new fire starts, especially if significant rainfall ends up being more limited. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1204 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 Mainly VFR. Isolated showers/thunderstorms in far E Oregon and SW Idaho, dissipating by Wed/08Z. Scatteredstorms return Wed afternoon mainly across SW Idaho. Storms capable of 30-50 kt outflows, brief heavy rain, and blowing dust. Localized terrain obscuration from wildfire smoke. High density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds outside of storms: variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable or SW 5-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Potential for outflow wind gusts 15-25 kt and light rain before Wed/08Z due to dissipating storms. Then, a 30% chance of shower/thunderstorm outflows (30-50 kt) reaching KBOI after Wed/23Z. Visibility reductions due to nearby wildfire smoke, with foothills obscured. High density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds: light and variable, transitioning to SE-E 5-12 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL over KBOI: W-S 10-20 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-426. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....ST AVIATION.....SH  710 FXUS65 KSLC 080954 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 354 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... - Scattered high-based convection is expected to across northern/central UT and southwest WY tomorrow afternoon with gusty outflow winds capable of gusts to 50mph with scattered severe gusts in excess of 58mph. - Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southern UT tomorrow afternoon as gusts increase with a decrease in RH. - Probabilities for a notable heat wave developing late this week continue to increase resulting in areas of major HeatRisk developing statewide. Valley temperatures are forecast to reach and/or exceed 100F Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... Large-scale ridging continues to build over the Four Corners region with southwesterly flow persisting overhead. Mid- level moisture will continue to overspread UT into tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave trough pushes across northwest UT, deepening somewhat with eastern extent. As such, high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern and central UT as well as southwest WY. Mid-level flow associated with the trough ranging from 40-50kts is forecast to push across northern UT in the afternoon hours, serving to increase eff. shear to around 20-30kts, potentially resulting in the development of organized convection and longer-lived storms. Additionally, DCAPE continues to remain quite high to around 1600-1800J/kg, and with ample flow aloft, scattered instances of strong to severe wind gusts (58mph) appear likely with the potential of a few gusts to 70mph. The highest confidence for these gusts reside in western Box Elder county due to low confidence regarding eastern extent. Later tomorrow evening into Thursday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly/zonal following the departure of the trough ejecting northeast. Drier air working its way in with the westerly flow with modest height rises across the region will provide enough large- scale subsidence to keep most areas dry with convection remaining across higher terrain. Additionally, temperatures will remain moderated, albeit still quite hot during this time given a more stagnant upper air pattern. On Friday, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build significantly centered over the Four Corners with high confidence regarding the development of dangerously hot temperatures. On Friday, most valley locations will approach 100F across much of UT. On Saturday, nearly all valley locations are forecast to break into the 100s with lower Washington nearing 110F. Similar temperatures are expected to occur on Sunday and Monday across the entirety of the forecast area. Regarding HeatRisk, most valley locations will see "Major" develop, particularly along the I-15 corridor on Saturday with pockets of "Extreme" developing along the northern Wasatch Front. Both areas of "Major" and "Extreme" will increase in size on Sunday, expanding into both Salt Lake City and Provo, given expected poor overnight recoveries across the aforementioned areas. The threat continues on Monday, primarily along the Wasatch Front. && .AVIATION, Issued 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... KSLC...Gusty northwest winds will diminish before switching to the southeast between 07 and 08Z. Thereafter VFR conditions with southeast winds can be expected through Wednesday morning, with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms impacting the terminal after 19Z Wednesday afternoon. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Lingering showers and thunderstorms across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming will diminish by 09Z, leaving VFR conditions and light winds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon mainly across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible around KBCE Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...The airmass will trend drier today under a west- southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts west off the northern Baja coast. Afternoon relative humidities will drop below 15% across most of central and southern Utah, down to the single digits in some valley locales. Meanwhile, across northern Utah, lingering moisture will maintain isolated to scattered mainly high-based showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry lightning and gusty outflow winds being the main threat. While chances of showers and thunderstorms across the central mountains and adjacent valleys are nonzero, they are expected to be much more isolated there today. Meanwhile, enhanced winds combined with the low humidities will once again drive critical fire weather conditions across portions of central and southern Utah today. The drying trend will continue across the area through the rest of the week, with humidities continuing to trend downward across the area and overnight recoveries become increasingly poor especially across central and southern Utah. Convection will become increasingly isolated during this time as well. Thursday may continue to bring critical fire weather conditions as winds remain enhanced especially across southern Utah. As high pressure builds back into the area for the weekend into the beginning of next week, dry and very hot conditions can be expected. Temperatures are very likely to reach at least 100 degrees in most valleys over the weekend, while relative humidities in the single digits will be common. However, the pattern still looks favorable for moisture to increase into the area beginning early next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-495-497- 498. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ493-496. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Cheng For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  738 FXUS65 KTWC 080955 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 255 AM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day this week, with the potential for an increase in storm coverage over the weekend. Hot temperatures for much of the week before cooling off this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...The monsoon ridge axis continues to slowly re- orientate itself into a E-W orientation over the next 24 hrs with the high centered W of nrn Baja. Well above normal high temperatures continue with moderate to major HeatRisk for much of the area. Extreme Heat Warning for the much of Pima county, south-central and southeast Pinal county and the Gila River vly of Graham county has been extended until Thursday evening. Early morning satellite imagery showed partly to mostly cloudy conditions while KEMX radar showed elevated light showers, sprinkles or virga moving W-SW across the area. Clouds/showers dissipating by 4 am. Satellite derived PWAT values are up, for the most part versus 24 hours ago, and ranged from 0.80" east to up to 1.35" from Tucson west. to 1.15". At the surface dew points were ranged from the upper 40s to the upper 50s with localized spots in the lower 60s. Convective activity today will shift a bit further west than yesterday with western extent over south-central Pinal and central Pima county. Main threat from storms this afternoon and early evening will be outflow winds of 35 to 50 mph, blowing dust (especially W/NW of Tucson) and brief moderate rain with strongest cells. Steering flow will move storms from generally the west. Thursday and Friday: The center of the monsoon high that is west of nrn Baja today lifts NE across the state during this period. Some minor drying of PWATs across the area which may limit thunderstorm activity to mainly south and east of Tucson both days. Highs remaining on the hot side. This weekend: As the monsoon high moves into the central Rockies the flow aloft becomes more favorable out of the E-SE. PWATs, per ensembles, increase areawide thanks to moisture influx from Sonoran thunderstorm outflows moving north and potential gulf surges. The added moisture this will increase the flash flooding threat with Saturday, at this time, likely having the highest threat. Highs will be around normal. Active monsoon pattern continues early next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 09/12Z. Debris clouds AOA 10k ft AGL cont to diminish thru 08/15z. Clouds bases of 9k-11k ft AGL re-developing aft 08/18z along with ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. Potential for outflow winds up to 45 kts thru 09/04Z. Clouds and storms diminishing aft 09/05z thru end of valid pd. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, SFC wind less than 12 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Above normal high temperatures (4-7 degrees) through Thursday, with highs lowering to around normal over the upcoming weekend. Min RH values in the lower elevations in the 13-17 percent range through Friday, increasing 5-10 percent by late in the weekend into early next week. Outside of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20- foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph into early next week. There will be a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon/evening hours this work week. There is the potential for increasing thunderstorm chances and coverage this weekend. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ501-502- 504>506-509. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  774 FXUS66 KSGX 080956 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 256 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will continue the warming today with widespread moderate or greater HeatRisk for inland areas into Friday with widespread major HeatRisk for the lower deserts through Thursday. For Sunday into next week, monsoonal moisture in southeast flow alot will increase the humidity and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms with the greater chances over the mountains each afternoon and early evening. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM... High pressure aloft will continue to strengthen across the area today with forecast 500 mb heights later today above the 95th percentile, but not quite record setting for the date. High pressure will then slowly weaken through Thursday night before beginning to restrengthen on Friday. Widespread moderate or greater HeatRisk will continue for the Inland Empire, mountain elevations below 6000 feet, and the deserts through Friday with widespread major HeatRisk for the lower deserts through Thursday. The Excessive Heat Warning for the lower deserts and Heat Advisories for the Inland Empire and mountain elevations below 6000 feet through Thursday may need to be extended through Friday. High temperatures for today will warm and few to around 5 degrees for inland areas with not much change on Thursday. High temperatures on Friday will only cool slightly. High temperatures for today and Thursday will range from near average at the coast to 5 to 10 degrees above average for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys. High temperatures for today and Thursday will range from the 70s near the coast to the mid 90s to 105 for the Inland Empire with 112 to 118 for the lower deserts. While these high temperatures are expected to mostly remain below daily high temperature records, there could be a few record warm low temperatures in the mountains. The marine layer will continue to become slightly shallower with night and morning coastal low clouds spreading into the far western valleys at times. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)... The center of high pressure aloft across southern California into Arizona on Friday will strengthen and move toward the northeast over the weekend. The flow aloft across the area will become southeasterly over the weekend into early next week with monsoonal moisture increasing for Sunday into early next week. Over the past couple of days, ECMWF ensemble precipitable water values have trended higher while the spread between wetter and drier ensemble members has narrowed. There will be a slight chance for showers on Sunday with greater chances for shower and thunderstorms over the mountains on Monday afternoon. Chances for afternoon and early evening thunderstorms for the mountains could continue through at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... 080930Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 900-1300 ft have filled into most of San Diego County coastal areas up to 15 miles inland and are now filling into the OC lowlands from south to north. Vis restrictions of 3-5 SM along higher coastal terrain and locally in valleys east of I-15. Low clouds and any vis restrictions will scatter 15-17Z. VFR through the afternoon. Low clouds with similar bases re-develop offshore after 00z Thu, filling into coastal SD County (up to 15 miles inland) and southern OC from 05-09z. Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Breezy gusts near San Clemente Island will continue to diminish through the morning. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains- San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink