969 FXUS66 KLOX 081000 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 300 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...07/1125 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge over the region. Some relief from the heat is likely this weekend as the ridge breaks down and opens the door for possible monsoon showers or thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...08/1212 AM. An upper high will be centered over Srn CA today through Friday. Hgts will range from 594 to 596 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal. There will be onshore flow to the east strongest in the afternoon, but a few mb weaker than it was earlier this week. There will be a mb or two of offshore flow from the north in the mornings turning weakly onshore to the north in the afternoons. The marine layer has been smooshed down to about 800 ft by the hier than pressure aloft. The lack of an eddy means that there will only be minimal (if any) low clouds south of Pt Conception. The normal amount of onshore flow across the Central Coast will bring that area consistent night through morning low clouds today through Friday. Max temps will be the main concern through the short term. The hier than normal hgts, lack of a solid marine layer and only weak to moderate onshore flow in the afternoon will all add up to warmer than normal conditions. Look for 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming today under the subsidence from the upper high. This will bring vly highs of 92 to 103 degrees. Most max temps south of Pt Conception will be 4 to 8 degrees over normal. The Central Coast will only have near normal temps as the cooling sea breeze will greatly modify their temps. Most areas south of Pt Conception will see little change in temps on Thursday, but a weaker sea breeze will allow for 3 to 5 degrees of warming across the Central Coast. A 2 to 3 mb uptick in onshore flow on Friday will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys on Friday, but max temps will remain a few degrees over normals. A heat advisory is in effect for the LA vlys and interior cstl sections as well as all of the mtns and far interior vlys (please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all details). Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening and Thursday evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...08/226 AM. The upper high that will sit atop of Srn CA for the next three days will shift to the NE late Friday through Sunday. It will eventually reach the Dakotas. This movement will set up SE flow into Srn CA. At the sfc mdt to stg onshore flow will continue both to the N and E. The SE flow will bring in monsoon moisture and there will be partly to mostly cloudy skies through the period as plenty of mid and high level clouds stream into and over the area. The moisture will not be low enough to create a convective threat on Saturday. For Sunday to Tuesday, however, the monsoon moisture will lower enough to bring a 10-20 percent chc of showers/isolated TSTMs to portions of LA and (less of a chc) VTA counties. The best chc of showers will be over eastern LA county and esp the eastern San Gabriels. At the low levels, due to the increased onshore flow, night through morning low clouds and fog will affect most of csts and some portions of the lower vlys. Look for 3 to 6 degrees of cooling on Saturday which will bring mid 70s to lower 80s to the csts (lower 70s at the beaches) and mid 80s to mid 90s in the vlys. These max temps are close to seasonal normals. There will be little day to day chg in temps Sun and Mon. Tuesday may warm a few degrees as the clouds thin out and the onshore flow relaxes a bit. && .AVIATION...08/0959Z. At 0538Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1400 ft deep with a temperature of 27 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 25 percent chc for LIFR conds through 16Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z. Low confidence in TAFs for KSMO and KLAX (40 percent chc of IFR cigs 12Z-17Z) and KLGB (40 percent chc of no cigs) KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of OVC008 conds 12Z-17Z). Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...08/239 AM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Thursday across the Outer Waters. There is a 50-70% chance of Gale Force winds this afternoon and evening and again Thursday. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid- week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend. SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel greatest during the afternoon and evening hours through at least Thursday. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoons/evenings through Thursday. For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through tonight. Otherwise, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT this morning for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Friday for zone 368. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...RM/Lund/CC/SF SYNOPSIS...RM weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  234 FXUS63 KMKX 081003 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 503 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon into this evening, with the better chances north of a Mineral Point, to Madison, to Sheboygan line. Damaging winds are the main hazard, along with some hail. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding may occur later this afternoon into Thursday morning, mainly in northern portions of the area. - Showers and storms may occur again Thursday afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and hail may occur. - Hot and muggy conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 503 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Storms continue to shift east across northern Wisconsin back into central Minnesota, where the low level jet nose is pointing into with focused warm air advection and frontogenesis near the frontal boundary. Some warm air and moisture advection in the low levels may help to generate a few showers and storms into the morning hours, perhaps early this afternoon, that may clip northern portions of the area. Left 20 to 40 percent chances in the forecast for this period. May see cirrus anvils move more into the area and may linger more into this morning and early afternoon, especially west. Despite this, there should be 1000 to 1500 J/kg of mean layer CAPE that develops this afternoon, with 20 to 25 knots of deep layer bulk shear. CAMs are generally showing scattered convection developing along the approaching cold front from middle to later this afternoon to the west of the area, then shifting into the area by early this evening. There remains some uncertainty with the strength of the storms if they arrive in northwest and far northern parts of the area later toward and after sunset. Still, if they arrive earlier, there should be some severe storm potential, with damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning the main hazards. Some hail may occur as well. The better chances will be north of a Mineral Point, to Madison, to Sheboygan line. Locally heavy rainfall and perhaps some localized flooding impacts may linger later tonight into Thursday morning in northern portions of the area, with additional showers and storms with high precipitable water values and possible training of storms. There may be some showers and storms that develop Thursday afternoon and early evening, as the front sags south through the area. Gusty winds and hail may occur, as there is enough mean layer CAPE and shear to produce a few stronger storms. Wood && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Tonight through Thursday: Dry weather is expected to continue into tonight under high pressure. A few showers and a storm or two could brush the north toward daybreak into mid-morning Wednesday as warm air advection and deeper moisture push into the area. Storms are then likely mainly along and north of I-94 late afternoon into the evening hours as instability and moisture continue to increase ahead of an approaching shortwave. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any slow moving or training storms, as precipitable water values push 2 inches. Still think there is a chance for a few strong to severe storms given ample instability and marginal deep layer shear. Hail and strong winds are the main severe concerns. Should be plenty of time for temps to warm Wednesday before widespread clouds and precip move in, so kept high temps largely in the upper 80s. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 90 degree reading or two, especially along and south of I-94. Isolated to scattered storms are expected to hang around Wednesday night into early Thursday as instability and plenty of moisture linger while the shortwave moves through. Could see some redevelopment Thursday afternoon as the surface trough drops through southern Wisconsin. Locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns Wed night into Thu, though wouldn't be surprised by a stronger storm or two producing some hail and gusty winds Thursday afternoon into early evening. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Friday through Tuesday: Mainly dry weather is likely from Friday into early next week as an upper ridge builds in and surface high pressure largely sits over the region. Not out of the question to see a few storms sneak over the top of the ridge into southern Wisconsin as the ridge moves in late this week and begins to flatten by mid-week next week. Overall though, dry weather should prevail much of the time along with increasing temperatures this weekend into early next week. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 503 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few showers and storms may occur into the morning hours, perhaps early this afternoon, that may clip northern portions of the area including the Sheboygan terminal. May see middle to high clouds from storms to the north and northwest move more into the area and may linger into this morning and early afternoon, especially for the Madison and Janesville terminals. Some scattered to broken 4000 to 5000 foot AGL clouds may occur and linger during this time. Light to modest southwest winds are expected today, though south to southeast winds with a lake breeze may occur for terminals close to Lake Michigan. These winds may remain near or east of the terminals close to the lakeshore. Scattered storms should develop along the approaching cold front from middle to later this afternoon to the west of the area, then shifting into the area by early this evening. There remains some uncertainty with the strength of the storms if they arrive in northwest and far northern parts of the area later toward and after sunset. Still, if they arrive earlier, there should be some severe storm potential, with damaging winds the main hazard. Some hail may occur as well. The better chances will be north of a Mineral Point, to Madison, to Sheboygan line. Locally higher winds, along with reduced visibility and ceilings, are possible with any storms. Light and variable winds are expected otherwise. Ceilings may drop to 1000 to 1500 feet AGL later tonight into Thursday morning in northern portions of the area. Locally heavy rainfall may linger later tonight into Thursday morning in northern portions of the area, including the Sheboygan terminal, with additional showers and storms. There may be some showers and storms that develop Thursday afternoon and early evening, as the front sags south through the area. Gusty winds and hail may occur. Winds should gradually shift north to northeast as the front moves southward through the area. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 503 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure around 30.1 inches will shift southeast into the Ohio Valley today. Modest south winds will continue today, as weak low pressure around 29.8 inches and an accompanying cold front approaches from the Northern Great Plains. Modest southwest winds tonight will become north behind the frontal passage Thursday into Thursday night. An area of thunderstorms may move east across northern portions of Lake Michigan this morning. Gusty winds and hail may occur. Scattered thunderstorms are likely at times later this afternoon into this evening, mainly over northern and central portions of the lake, with chances lingering later tonight and spreading southward. A few strong to severe storms are possible, with damaging winds the main hazard along with some hail. There are chances for thunderstorms at times Thursday into early Thursday evening, mainly over southern portions of the lake. A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail are possible Thursday afternoon and early evening. Winds will become north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.1 inches builds into the the region. The high should continue to bring light to modest winds for the weekend. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  253 FXUS65 KRIW 081003 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 403 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another warm day with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms (up to a 2 and 5 chance), mainly in the afternoon and evening. The best chance will be East of the Continental Divide. - Thunderstorms chances trend down and temperatures trend upward starting Thursday and especially this weekend. - The hottest weather over the year and potentially in some time arrives this weekend, with some all time record high temperatures possible. The best chance all time record high temperatures will be on Sunday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 I have a question for you this morning. What do these things have in common: gas pressure and volume, supply and demand and speed and travel time. If you answered inverse relationships, you would be right. And that is what we will have over the next week, as the temperature goes up, the chance of convection goes down. Today will be somewhat similar to yesterday. Another shortwave will be moving through the area. We also continue to have fairy steep low and mid level lapse rates. Instability values are also decent, with some portions of the area (mainly the northeastern portions of the area) having over 1000 J/Kg of CAPE and lifted indices as low as minus 5. There will be one difference though, and this will be a trend over the next few days. And that is that precipitable water values are a lower than yesterday, especially West of the Divide. But even East of the Divide, values are 10 to 20 percent lower. It is still around 130 percent of normal though. As a result, it will be another day anywhere from a 1 in 5 to 2 out of 5 chance of a shower or thunderstorm, with the best chance in the afternoon and evening and across northern and far southern Wyoming. The lowest chance will be across the west with less than a 1 in 10 chance. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, near to somewhat above normal. As for any stronger storms, the best chance would be over Johnson County where there is a marginal risk, with strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail the main threats. Strong wind gusts will be a threat with any shower or thunderstorm though, even further west where dew point depressions will be larger. The downward trend in convection continues on Thursday as drier works a little further east. There will still be some convection around, but most would be confined to East of the Divide again and especially in Johnson and Natrona Counties where the deepest moisture will remain. Temperatures look largely similar to today. The inverse relationship really begins on Friday as ridging over the desert southwest begins to push northward with rising heights and temperatures aloft. This is the day when below normal precipitable waters will push across the entire area. We can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm, mainly over the northern mountains, but even here the chance is less than 1 out of 5. Temperatures will also begin to really rise, with the normally warmer spots seeing high temperatures approaching 100. It is Saturday when we really begin to throw some coal into the blast furnace, otherwise known as a death ridge. Heights across the area will climb to over 5950 meters at 500 millibars, and bring definitely the hottest weather of the year. The NBM ensemble gives a greater than 1 out of 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees in locations 5200 feet or below, with a nearly 100 percent chance in the warmer spots likely from Thermopolis up to Greybull. All locations below 6500 feet have a 4 out of 5 chance of temperatures over 90 degrees. Some records will likely fall on this day. With the dry air inplace and warm temperatures aloft, the chance of convection looks just about nil. However, the heat looks to peak on Monday. This mornings guidance shows 700 millibar temperatures climbing as high as 24 degrees celsius. This combined with nearly full sunshine will lead to one of the hottest days in quite a while. Ensemble guidance shows a nearly 100 percent chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees below 5500 feet, and places like Rock Springs, Green River and even Jackson have a greater than 1 out 3 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees. When we go up to 105 degrees, ensemble guidance gives a greater than 4 out of 5 chance of this from Thermopolis to Greybull, with Riverton even having a 1 out of 2 chance. And going up even further, to 110, there is a 2 out of 5 chance a place like Greybull or Worland could reach this temperature. We could see some all time high temperatures fall on this day as the 5980 500 millibar ridge will be centered just about over Wyoming. We should begin to take a couple of degrees off of the highs on Monday as the ridge retreats to the east just a bit. However, most areas below 5500 feet will again have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees. And with the ridge moving East, some moisture, mainly of the mid level variety will begin to come around the back side of the ridge. A couple of storms are possible on Monday, but chances increase more on Tuesday and into Wednesday. With the low levels remaining rather dry, these thunderstorms would produce more wind than rain though. Convection should be on the isolated side though with most locations not seeing one on any given day. Temperatures will drop somewhat from the blast furnace levels of the weekend, but look to remain above normal through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 359 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions should continue through 12Z Thursday. It will be another day of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms around the area (20 to 40 percent chance), although coverage will be less. As a result, we have continued to PROB30 for all terminals except KJAC, KPNA and KBPI. There is around a 15 percent chance for those three terminals after 19Z today, but not enough confidence to include in the TAFs at this time. The main threat from any shower or storms will be wind gusts over 40 knots. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in any heavier thunderstorms. All convection should end around 06Z Thursday. Otherwise, except wind to be between 8 to 12 knots at all terminals this afternoon and evening with gusts to around 18 knots except in vicinity of outflow boundaries. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Hattings  268 FXUS61 KILN 081004 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 604 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes from previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow primarily south of I-70. 2) A larger system arrives near the end of the working week, reintroducing a heavy rain and localized flooding threat. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A loosely organized low lifting northeast from the Gulf through the Appalachians this evening into Thursday. As this system clips our southerly counties, a renewed chance for largely diurnal scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Overall severe threat is low, but an increase in low and mid level moisture (PWATs around 1.9 inches along the Ohio River) and training storm motion may result in an isolated flooding threat. KEY MESSAGE 2) Attention then turns toward the end of the working week and into the weekend when the chances for heavy rainfall increase. A slow moving cold front sagging down from Canada will lay out zonally across the southern Ohio Valley. This zonal flow will provide the focus for several shortwave disturbances to ride along and drop southeast through the Great Lakes region later this week. These features look to impact our area Thursday through Saturday, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms once again expected in a very moist airmass. PWATs of 2+ inches, skinny CAPE, the potential for W to E training storms, and multiple rounds of storms will introduce a heavy rain and localized flooding threat. While our entire area will receive accumulating rainfall, the greatest QPF footprint appears currently to be across central Kentucky, with a widespread 1-3 inches currently painted across KY from Thurs- Sat based on ensemble plumes, with the gradient lessening the farther north you go. Of course, locally higher amounts will be possible with stronger storms and those locations is where the greatest flooding threat will be. Many details still remain to be worked out and the axis of highest QPF may shift, but will likely start messaging the heavy rain threat for areas south of I-70. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Patchy fog burns off after sunrise and diurnal cu build in during the afternoon. Some high level cirrus will overspread from the south. Calm winds this morning will give way to very light northerly flow around 5 knots or so through the afternoon hours. Scattered PM thunderstorms are expected in southern Ohio/ north central Kentucky and almost added in a PROB30 at LUK and CVG from 00z tonight through 4z Thursday, but signal is more robust to the southeast of the TAF sites so held off. However, mentioning the chance here for awareness. Winds subside again after sunset and patchy fog will develop again, mostly in river valleys and rural areas. Outlook...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Aiena AVIATION...Aiena  439 FXUS65 KCYS 081007 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 407 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and Thursday with heavy rainfall, hail, and strong gusty winds possible. - A ridge builds late in the long term, drying the area out and developing Red Flag and potential heat advisory conditions through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 405 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A small plume of showers is slowly weakening as it moves eastward along I-80 this morning. Only a trace to couple hundredths is expected from this shower, so no beneficial rain is expected unfortunately. Another shortwave is expected to push across the region this afternoon. Hi-res models have initiation starting around 20z but the majority of the forcing won't arrive until about 00z in the form of lobes of strong vorticity. RAP has 3CAPE around 5-600 joules with MUCAPE around 1100 joules. The models maintain a rather straight hodograph for the mid-levels while the sounding indicates a rather dry lower level. This environment best suits gusty winds and large sized hail. With 0-6 Bulk shear around 50-60 kts in the Panhandle there's enough shear to separate the storms updraft and downdraft for sustained intensity. Given the setup of a shortwave with accompanying vortmaxes the HRRR and NAM-nest are probably the most reliable given their history with this setup. Both models have thunderstorms occurring in two phases with the weaker set of thunderstorms happening first. The two models diverge in the second phase as the HRRR has all the stronger storms developing north of our forecast area then dropping south into the Panhandle from South Dakota for a classic Dawes county clipper scenario. THe Nam-nest has all the forcing staying over our area from 00z to 06z and the Panhandle getting all the storms. So it will be interesting to see where the forcing sets up for our thunderstorms to utilize. SPC has the far-eastern portion of Wyoming and the all of the Panhandle in a slight risk for this afternoon with hail and high winds as the main threat. The models have the storms ending between 06z to 08z however the intermountain west looks to lose the shear closer to 04z so our severe potential window looks to be from 22z to 04z or 2pm to 10pm tomorrow. Thursday looks to be a wash rinse repeat of today. The same ingredients are present however the bulk shear looks to be a tiny bit weaker Thursday afternoon. However, the Panhandle does receive more a little bit more moisture at the surface Thursday compared to today. This means the storms will have a more energy to utilize but with weaker shear. Thunderstorms look to initiate around 21z again and last until 04z. Given the weaker shear these thunderstorms are more likely to be pulsy in nature with decent microburst potential but also able to produce some severe hail when they pulse up. Given the history with this section of the Intermountain west, Severe winds will be possible with collapsing cores and in the stratiform region of the storms with accumulating hail with a couple quarters thrown in there. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 405 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday, the upper level pattern starts to change as an upper level ridge starts to build around the Intermountain West and expand into the Central plains. The global models have come into an agreement about the ridge becoming pretty stout and will dry us out possible through the start of the next work week. NAEFS has most of Wyoming and the Panhandle in the 90th and above percentile through the end of next week. It will be HOT and Dry in the long term for a possible extended Red Flag warning for our entire CWA due to the already dryfuels and low RH's. However, the important wind component may not show up while under this broad ridge until Sunday as a shortwave looks to give us some breezy conditions worthy of a Red Flag. Temperatures will rise into the 80's and 90's this weekend with potential 90's and 100's by the start of the next work week. Staying cool will be a must and if you have to work outside may sure to take plenty of breaks and snack between meals so your body can retain some electrolytes that will be lost from sweating. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1104 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Mostly quiet conditions tonight as the remaining showers and storms continue to move out of the region. Most terminals will see light and variable winds overnight, while portions of the Nebraska Panhandle may see some low clouds. KCDR and KAIA may see lower-level clouds develop between 10 and 15Z this morning. MVFR to near IFR conditions are possible. Clouds clear out in the mid-morning hours everywhere. Primary concern tomorrow will be another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms, some of which may be severe. Damaging winds and large hail are possible with storms in the afternoon. However, gusty and erratic winds are possible in and around any shower or storm the develops in the afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...AM  377 FXUS66 KPDT 081006 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 306 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooling trend through Thursday. - Dry and locally breezy conditions through the week. - Elevated fire weather concerns through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and infrared satellite imagery shows light returns lingering across eastern Wallowa county under mostly clear skies. This is in response to the upper level trough that approached the area during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday, bringing some strong thunderstorms to areas of Grant and Union counties. The trough axis passed overnight which kept winds breezy across the Kittitas Valley, Columbia Gorge, and the Blue Mountain foothills. Flow aloft has turned more from the west and zonal in the wake of the passing system this morning, leading to slightly cooler temperatures today associated with a weak cold front. High temperatures will reach into the low to mid-90s across the Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain foothills, which is 2-4 degrees above normal. Another dissipating shortwave will bring another weak blast of cooler air on Thursday as high temperatures approach near normal values. The weak, dissipating shortwaves both today and Thursday will allow daily pressure gradients to develop along the Cascades, keeping winds breezy through the afternoon hours across the Columbia Basin. The GFS and NAM advertise a gradient of 8-10mb between Portland and Spokane today, which correlates to sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph out of the west. Peak winds are expected to occur after 5 PM and subside late in the evening. Northwest sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts up to 40 mph are expected in the Kittitas Valley, and will peak earlier around 3 PM and extend through the evening. Advisory-level winds are not expected as the NBM suggests only a 30-35% chance of sustained winds of 30 mph or greater, or gusts of 45 mph or greater over the Kittitas Valley. Advisory level wind chances are much lower in the Columbia Basin, 10% or less. An upper level low will continue dropping along the British Columbia coast through the remainder of the week, stalling just north of Vancouver Island Saturday morning. Weak, shortwaves will spin off this parent low to bring similar afternoon winds through the remainder of the week. The ECMWF AI ensembles and GFS AI ensembles are in good agreement with a strong high pressure center developing across the 4 corners region Saturday as the low stalls off the British Columbia coast. This enhances southwest flow aloft and increasing high temperatures into the mid-90s across the Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain foothills, and Central Oregon through the weekend. The high shifts northeast and into the Plains as the low offshore weakens and lifts northeast into Central British Columbia, northern Alberta, and northern Saskatchewan early next week - effectively riding up and over the central CONUS ridge. Winds across the area will subside on Sunday into Monday, but humidities are expected to dry as the large ridge infiltrates its influence into the area from the southeast. 75 && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Widespread breezy winds through the morning and afternoon with sustained wind of 10-20kts and gusts of 20-25kts. 25kft ceilings this morning will clear late in the afternoon through early evening. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through the week for WA690, WA691, OR691, and OR703, peaking through the afternoon hours associated with the incoming weak shortwaves. Afternoon humidities will also hover in the upper teens to mid-20s each day, with moderate to good overnight recoveries between 40-60%. Thursday is expected to be the most concerning day as minimum humidities of 15-20% and west northwest winds between 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will be possible. Higher winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are likely across the Kittitas Valley Thursday. Very low afternoon humidities dropping near single digit values are also forecast for OR700 and OR696 on Thursday. These concerns on Thursday will be further analyzed, but no fire weather product is anticipated at this time. 75 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 88 55 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 90 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 93 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 92 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 91 58 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 82 54 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 86 48 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 88 53 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 90 51 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 85 58 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...75 FIRE WEATHER...75  456 FXUS62 KRAH 081008 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 608 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Heat Advisory issued today && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 AM Wednesday... 1) Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. 2) Long duration heat concerns coming to an end after today. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 AM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain Early morning satellite, radar, and surface analysis show decaying convection across eastern NC. Surface obs show a northeasterly wind shift at many sites, driven primarily from the outflow from Tuesday night's convection. This wind shift is oriented roughly along US-64 as of 06Z. A weak synoptic backdoor cold front remains across northern VA this morning, with a secondary weak trough across the western Piedmont. Meanwhile to the west, a quasi-stationary upper wave over AR/TN is beginning to open up and trek northeastward through the lower OH valley. For today, the upper trough to our west will provide a broad area of ascent across the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. Modest upper support from the approaching wave, along with the proximity of the aforementioned outflow boundary and Piedmont trough, will support another round of afternoon showers and storms. Much like the past several days, deep layer shear is lacking but we have plenty of MLCAPE to work with (1500-2500 J/kG) and PW's remain anomalously high (2-2.2"). Any storms that form will be capable of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. The majority of the forecast area remains outlooked within a SPC MRGL risk. Storm chances ramp up after 18Z and should linger into the mid/late evening hours per 00Z HREF, tapering off area-wide after midnight. To the south of the stalled outflow boundary, temps will warm considerably into the mid/upper 90s. This, combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, will yield another afternoon of dangerously high heat index values and we've gone ahead with another Heat Advisory for locations south and east of Raleigh (Sandhills, central and southern Coastal Plain). Starting it a little earlier today as heat index values will already be above 100 in some spots by 11 AM. If storms get going in these areas early, the Advisory may be cancelled prior to it's expected ending time of 8 PM. KEY MESSAGE 2...Long duration heat concerns coming to an end after today. A strong mid-level anticyclone over the FL peninsula, 00z RAOBS sampled 595 dam Tues evening, ridging up into the Carolinas will become suppressed southward Thurs as a meandering shortwave trough over the TN Valley begins to shift eastward. Additionally, near normal PWAT values will advect into the area Thurs and combine with westerly downsloping flow, albeit weak, to allow surface dew points to mix out into the 60s where greatest low-lvl thickness and associated 2m temperatures will likely still reach into the upper 90s Thurs and Fri. This should limit heat indices max out in the low 100s. Heat Risk does still feature a level 3 risk for the Sandhills, eastern Piedmont and the southern Coastal Plain, but 2-meter temperatures are only 5-10 degrees above normal for mid-July with some degree of acclimation likely starting to set in. Nevertheless, be aware of the signs of heat exhaustion, especially if you much be outside and partake in strenuous activity. A break from the seasonably anomalous heat is expected as increased cloud cover and precipitation chances increase Fri through Sun as a convectively perturbed, and seasonably moist, shear axis slowly sags southward through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast. Mid-lvl convergence on the backside of troughing over the northern Atlantic may also sufficiently strengthen surface high pressure over the Northeast to push a backdoor cold front into the Carolinas Sun night into Mon. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 608 AM Wednesday... Fog has avoided most of the terminals this morning (aside from RDU and occasionally RWI ). What fog remains should quickly mix out by 13Z with VFR weather expected at all sites through mid afternoon. Attention turns toward the presence of a stalled surface boundary and lee troughing, which should serve as the focus for another round of afternoon showers and storms. The most widespread convection is expected from approx 20Z - 02Z before waning after midnight. Brief MVFR restrictions can be expected within any given thunderstorm. Outlook: A persistent summertime pattern will support generally VFR conditions outside of daily afternoon and evening convection through the end of the week. Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible in thunderstorms each day, with localized late night or early morning fog or stratus following heavier rainfall. Outside of convection, no widespread or prolonged aviation impacts are expected. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-077-078-085-086-088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leins/AS AVIATION...Leins/np  820 FXUS63 KDDC 081010 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 510 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures today with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. - Severe thunderstorms are possible each evening/night through Friday, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. - Strong upper level ridge will build over the weekend into next week, resulting in little to no precipitation chances and afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Late evening water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal weak ridging is in place atop the Desert Southwest, zonal flow across the northern Rockies/plains, and nebulous flow in between over the central plains. Short range guidance agrees the weak upper ridge will break down/retrograde further through the day Wednesday. Despite the weakening subsidence aloft, 850-mb temperatures are progged to increase by 4-5 degrees C, which will translate to afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Late Wednesday afternoon, the combination of the retrograding ridge and a weak upper level disturbance moving across the northern plains will result in weak height falls/modest strengthening of zonal flow over the central plains. Latest HREF suggests thunderstorms will develop over southeast WY/northeast CO and adjacent areas amidst sufficient moisture/instability and deep-layer shear for updraft organization. With time, upscale growth into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) appears the most likely scenario as this activity moves southeast into northwest KS, potentially impacting our northern zones after sunset and bringing a marginally severe wind gust threat. Daytime Thursday, little to no change in the synoptic pattern is expected as modest zonal flow remains anchored over the central and northern plains. In the wake of the previous night's MCS, convective outflow spread out over southwest KS will be modified by strong solar insolation, eventually resulting in southeast flow becoming re-established. As a result, afternoon highs will range from the low/mid 90s north of US-50 to the upper 90s/near 100 across our southern zones near the KS/OK border. Once again, a weak upper level impulse moving across the central Rockies will engender convective initiation over the higher terrain in eastern CO by mid-afternoon. HREF members exhibit strong agreement suggesting thunderstorms will rapidly congeal into an MCS, move east into western KS around 00Z, and roll across our area through the evening and into the overnight period. Given a favorable CAPE/shear parameter space, this MCS will pose a primarily severe wind gust threat, although severe hail is possible near the KS/CO border within any semi-discrete cells that can persist as convection enters our area. Friday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree thunderstorms are once again possible Friday evening/night as yet another weak upper level wave ejects onto the central plains. Beyond Friday however, ensembles agree a strong, cut-off high will expand northward through the High Plains, with the core of this ridge reaching north of southwest KS. While this evolution likely means little to no precipitation chances, the warmest lower-tropospheric temperatures will be drawn north of our CWA, supporting afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through mid- next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Very isolated early morning convection near/east of Dodge City and Hays will move east and dissipate over the next few hours. Currently it appears that any of these isolated storms will stay far enough east of the TAF sites so no plans to include a mention of thunder at this time between 12z and 14z. If conditions change closer to issuance will adjust accordingly. For the rest of the day...ceilings in the 9000 to 15000ft AGL will give way to clearing skies by the early afternoon as a surface boundary moves into far southwest Kansas. The location of this surface boundary will also result in southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots shifting to the south southwest. Although there may be an isolated thunderstorm or two (<20%) near this surface boundary late day, the better chance (30-50%) for convection will be after 02z Thursday as thunderstorms cross north central and southwest Kansas. As these storms pass the southerly winds will shift to the northeast and become gusty. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Burgert  860 FXUS66 KSEW 081011 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 311 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow will lead to mild weather across western Washington this week and into the weekend. Expect a slight chance of showers in the Olympics and northern Cascades. Drier and warmer conditions are forecast early next week as high pressure builds over the western US. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A weak/dry front is passing through western WA early this morning with increasing onshore flow. This onshore push will bring cooler conditions to the region and keep temperatures closer to average. Expect highs in the lower to mid 70s in the interior with 60s along the coast. Highest winds will be through the strait. Low pressure will remain over B.C./Alberta on Thursday with zonal flow over WA. Ongoing onshore flow will result in morning clouds with afternoon sunbreaks. Temperatures will track close to seasonal averages. On Friday, the low will shift W/SW and offshore and the flow aloft will become more southwesterly. A moisture tap will bring a few high-based showers to the Olympics and northern Cascades. The chance for wetting rains is low, though. The chance for thunderstorms is low too (less than 10 percent). 33 && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Low pressure will linger offshore through the weekend, keeping western WA slightly cooler and mild. There's a slight chance of showers again in the Olympics and northern Cascades although total rainfall is low. The low ejects northeastward and heights build early next week as strong high pressure forms over the western/central CONUS. Warmer temperatures are expected with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s in the interior on Monday and Tuesday. The coast will remain cooler and in the 60s due to NW winds. 33 && .AVIATION...Increased westerly flow as a weak cold front moves through W WA is allowing stratus to fill back into the region. MVFR/IFR conditions are being observed along the coast with MVFR conditions spreading inland, becoming widespread by 10-12Z Wed. Periods of IFR or lower conditions cannot be ruled out area- wide, though the highest likelihood is along the coast and into the Kitsap Peninsula. Expect cigs to scatter and improve to VFR behind the frontal passage after around 18-21Z Wed, with the exception of over the central Puget Sound area where post- frontal convergence will keep lower cigs and place and perhaps squeeze out some light showers or drizzle for another few hours. There's a 70-90% chance MVFR or lower cigs return to the coast by 04-06Z Thu around and north of KUIL, and a 40-60% chance along the rest of the coast after 06Z Thu. There's also a 20- 40% chance of MVFR cigs returning inland after 09Z Thu with chances peaking around and after sunrise (12-16Z). Relatively light winds less than 10 kts expected, west to northwest for locations west of the Puget Sound and west to southwest east of the Puget Sound. Winds for locations east of the Puget Sound shift more northerly after 16-18Z Wed. KSEA...MVFR cigs expected to return after around 11-13Z Wed with a 20-35% chance for periods of IFR cigs, mostly likely between 13-17Z Wed. A slow lift is expected with low-end VFR conditions possible after around 21Z Wed. Convergence behind the front look to keep ceilings in the picture through much of the day. Light south to southwest winds 5 kt or less will likely turn to west to northwest after 19-21Z Wed. && .MARINE...Onshore flow will prevail through the remainder of the week and weekend. Highest wind/waves will be found through the Strait of Juan de Fuca during the afternoon and evening hours. Gales or Small Craft Advisory westerly winds are expected through the strait each day. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER...Onshore flow will lead to near average temperatures and higher humidities, thus keeping the overall fire weather danger low. Dry and warmer conditions are forecast early next week although minimum humidities will not reach critical thresholds. && && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Admiralty Inlet. && $$  194 FXUS61 KBUF 081015 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 615 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather through the first half of Thursday with above average temperatures and rising humidity levels. 2) The next round of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather through the first half of Thursday with above average temperatures and rising humidity levels. The main impact for today and Thursday will be the return of above average temperatures and rising humidity levels. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s both days across the lower elevations away from lake influences. Humidity will also creep upward, with heat indices in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most of the lower elevations, and possibly mid 90s for areas just south of Lake Ontario and the western Finger Lakes. Otherwise, weak ridging will provide mainly dry weather across western and north-central NY through midday Thursday. The main exception will be across the western Southern Tier this afternoon where deeper moisture will combine with diurnal heating bringing the potential for some scattered showers/storms along an inland of a developing Lake Erie lake breeze boundary. This activity will move east through the afternoon, before dissipating this evening with the loss of daytime heating. KEY MESSAGE 2...The next round of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon through Friday. Mid level trough and attendant weak cold front will press southeast into the central Great Lakes Thursday afternoon, with weak forcing and a modest uptick in deeper moisture starting to overspread the area ahead these features. While this will bring the possibility for a few widely scattered and storms, a more substantial southwest flow will develop ahead of the approaching cold front supporting a more expansive stable lake shadow northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, likely keeping locations northeast of the lakes dry. That said, hi-res CAMs now coming into view hinting at the possibility for an isolated more robust shower/storm along the Lake Erie/Lake Ontario lake breeze boundary just south of Lake Ontario, as well as along a Lake Ontario lake breeze toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. The best chance for widespread showers and a few storms will be Thursday night through Friday morning as the weak cold front slowly slides southeast across the region. A few showers and scattered storms may linger into Friday afternoon before the front finally presses further south of the area. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A light E to ESE flow across PA continues to advect the western edge of better low level Atlantic flow into interior portions of the western Southern Tier (east of KJHW) early this morning. This has caused LIFR/VLIFR CIGS to overtop areas of valley fog (KELZ/KOLE) that formed overnight as seen on Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery. Further west toward KJHW, periods of SCT to BKN low VFR CIGS have limited valley fog formation. Thus as we near daybreak, any flight reductions should be relatively short-lived as fog mixes out within a couple hours after sunrise. Otherwise, predominantly VFR conditions will prevail today. The one exception to this will be across the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes region this afternoon, where increasing diurnal instability and a developing lake breeze boundary may lead to the development of some scattered showers/storms and attendant brief/localized restrictions. Whatever convection that forms across the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes region this afternoon will then die out fairly quickly withthe loss of heating this evening. Outside of this dry/VFR conditions will largely prevail, save for some possible patchy valley fog and attendant MVFR/IFR across the Southern Tier again later tonight. Outlook... Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms inland from the lakes in the afternoon. Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely at times. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Winds will generally remain 10 knots or less through the end of the work week with conditions remaining well below SCA criteria. The best chance for some light to possibly moderate chop at times will be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night ahead of and behind a weak passing cold front. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM/JJR MARINE...JM  416 FXUS64 KSJT 081025 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 525 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and dry conditions return for today though Friday with afternoon highs near or above the 100 degree mark. - Low to medium (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions today with temperatures around or slightly above normal. Highs will be in the 90s across much of the area and around 100 across the northwest Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Upper level ridging over our area will result in hot and dry conditions through the beginning of the weekend. Highs will be in the mid 90s to near 102 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. A weakness aloft develops on Sunday and Monday as the primary upper ridge shifts northward of the region. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures for the beginning of the week. In addition, models indicate an upper level trough setting up which would lead to increasing chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The winds will be from the south and a little gusty this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 97 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 92 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 95 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...21  459 FXUS66 KMFR 081027 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 327 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY POINTS... * Typical summer weather for the remainder of the week: seasonable temperatures and humidities, gusty afternoon winds. * Pattern amplifies Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-30 mph) Friday- Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring heightened fire weather concerns (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * Thunderstorm pattern early next week. Best chances east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. && .DISCUSSION...Another quiet summer morning underway today. The marine layer blankets the coast from Gold Beach southward as well as the Coquille Basin and Coastal Ranges. Skies are clear everywhere else. The marine layer will continue nudging inland this morning, possibly making it to Roseburg around sunrise, but morning clouds will give way to sunshine by the afternoon hours. Westerly flow will prevail today into Thursday under a mostly zonal flow pattern with flat high pressure to the south and a broad trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more stable air mass with thunderstorm potential remaining well east of the area. There will likely be some cumulus buildups today east of the Cascades and across northern California, and a stray shower (5% chance) can't be ruled out. A dry front will pass through the region today. This will bring another day of enhanced afternoon breezes as well as a general cooling trend in afternoon temperatures today that will persist into the weekend. Instead of temperatures being 8 to 10 degrees above normal like recent days, high temperatures through the weekend will hover within a few degrees of normal, equating to low 90s West/upper 80s East. With this general cool down, we'll see an uptick in afternoon humidities, so despite the enhanced afternoon winds, fire weather concerns will be somewhat mitigated by the slightly cooler temperatures. The pattern transitions on Friday with high pressure to the south moving eastward into the Great Basin region, then amplifying on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward Friday into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly again and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tighter gradients. This pattern will bring a round of strong, gusty winds to the region Friday and Saturday when gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 30 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions could be possible east of the Cascades Friday and Saturday, most widespread on Saturday. Low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, and this will ease winds some compared to Saturday, but conditions will still be quite breezy. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough. Daytime humidities will trend slightly upward and the flow will turn more southerly heading into the early part of next week. This pattern will bear watching for thunderstorm potential as south to southwesterly flow could push some monsoonal moisture into the region. While this is still 5 to 7 days out and plenty of time for details to change between now and then, it currently looks like we'll skate by on Sunday without any convective activity. Monday through Wednesday, however, there could be enough moisture and instability in the region for thunderstorm activity. Given that the region is on the western periphery of that strong high pressure, it currently looks like the best chances would be across eastern areas, though it's worth noting that current guidance shows enough moisture across the West Side for thunderstorm development potentially on Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates as models hone in on additional details. && .AVIATION...(08/06Z TAFs)...A marine layer will likely keep North Bend/KOTH under overcast IFR/MVFR ceilings through most of Wednesday morning, with some gradual improvement to a scattered layer expected again during the late morning into the early evening. The marine layer is expected to return to the same portions of the coast after 03Z on Wednesday evening. Farther inland, all terminals are expected to be under VFR conditions through Wednesday afternoon with one caveat. The marine layer will likely be strong enough overnight to bring MVFR ceilings to Roseburg/KRBG for a few hours around sunrise again. Otherwise, expecting typical diurnal breezes Wednesday afternoon into the evening. && .MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Wednesday, July 8, 2026...Moderate north winds continue south of Cape Blanco, which will maintain steep seas through this morning. The thermal trough strengthens later this morning, resulting in increasing north winds and very steep seas developing south of Gold Beach. Small Craft Advisory winds and seas will spread north to Cape Arago. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but could strengthen again late weekend with gusty north winds and steep seas. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  476 FXUS62 KGSP 081027 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 627 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Highs trending cooler Sunday into Monday with cold air damming expected to develop. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday before cooler and less humid conditions return Sunday into early next week. Those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. 2. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected across mainly western North Carolina through Friday before a cold front brings better shower and thunderstorm chances back area- wide this weekend into Monday. A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible during peak heating hours each day through Friday, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday before cooler and less humid conditions return Sunday into early next week. Those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. Hot and humid conditions linger through Saturday east of the mountains as the western periphery of the Bermuda High lingers over the western Atlantic. Despite highs east of the mountains climbing into the low to mid 90s each day, dewpoints are expected to mix out each afternoon keeping heat indices below advisory criteria (<105 degrees). Breezy SW/W winds will develop each afternoon/early evening east of the mountains with gusts expected to remain well below advisory criteria, ranging from 15-25 mph. Breezy winds will allow for some relief from the humid airmass each day. Temperatures will end up around 4-7 degrees above normal area wide through Saturday thanks to low-level flow being mainly W/SW'ly. The Bermuda High gets nudged farther south as a cold front tracks across the region this weekend, bringing a cooler and less humid airmass behind it Sunday into early next week. Cold air damming looks to develop in the wake of the front late this weekend into early next week as surface high pressure builds over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. CAD may allow highs to actually fall below normal on both Sunday and Monday, which we won't complain about for mid- July and could definitely use after the last week. Key message 2: Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected across mainly western North Carolina through Friday before a cold front brings better shower and thunderstorm chances back area- wide this weekend into Monday. A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible during peak heating hours each day through Friday, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop. Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue across mainly western North Carolina through Friday. Some activity could develop across the South Carolina Upstate and northeast Georgia depending on how outflow boundaries propagate the next few afternoons. Per usual, a few strong, sub-severe storms are possible during peak heating hours with the severe storm potential expected to remain isolated. The main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop is damaging wind gusts from microbursts thanks to weak deep layer shear and decent destabilization expected each afternoon. Better shower and thunderstorm chances return area-wide this weekend into Monday ahead of and along a cold front. Although deep layer shear will be slightly better, cloud cover along with cooler temperatures (especially on Sunday and Monday due to CAD developing) could limit destabilization. Thus, confidence on the severe weather potential with this front is low. Drier conditions should return by Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into the region behind the departing front. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 12Z TAF period outside of morning fog/stratus and afternoon/evening TSRA. Any fog/stratus that developed overnight will lift around or shortly after sunrise. TSRA should be more confined to the NC terminals this afternoon and evening. Opted to upgrade KAVL and KHKY to TEMPOs for TSRA and associated restrictions late this afternoon/early this evening as confidence is higher that these terminals will see activity. With lower confidence at KCLT, maintained the PROB30 for TSRA and associated restrictions late this afternoon/early this evening. The SC terminals should remain dry today. Calm to light and VRB winds will linger through the early morning hours before picking up out of the SW east of the mountains and mainly NW at KAVL. Winds will gradually increase today across most terminals with speeds ranging from 5-12 kts. However, lighter winds are expected at KAVL and KHKY. Low-end gusts may develop across the SC terminals this afternoon/early evening. Lighter winds return tonight with wind direction turning more WSW east of the mountains. Fog and stratus should develop across the mountain valleys again overnight into daybreak Thursday so have hinted at this at KAVL towards the end of the TAF period. KHKY could see MVFR fog develop around daybreak Thursday so have this mentioned towards the end of the TAF period as well. Outlook: The NC terminals will have the best potential to see TSRA each afternoon and evening through Friday. SHRA/TSRA chances return for all terminals this weekend into Monday. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in locations that see appreciable rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ AR  596 FXUS61 KBGM 081030 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 630 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant change with the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity are expected across Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania today and tomorrow. 2) Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the region Thursday and Friday before quiet weather and high pressure build back in for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level low has shifted east with weak high pressure building in behind it. This will allow skies to gradually clear with winds becoming light and variable. Morning patchy fog is expected to burn off soon after sunrise. A cool start to the day will quickly give way to warming afternoon temperatures as abundant sunshine and the strong July sun angle help temperatures climb into the 80s across much of the region. Overall, a quiet and pleasant day is in store. Attention then turns to a weak shortwave approaching later this evening, bringing a small chance for showers across portions of the Southern Tier, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected elsewhere. KEY MESSAGE 2... Southwesterly flow develops Thursday as 850 mb temperatures rise into the +16 to +18 degrees C range. Surface temperatures should climb well into the 80s, with a few lower 90s not out of the question. Heat indices in the 90 to 95 degree range will be possible, especially across the Lake Ontario Plain and interior valleys. As temperatures and dew points increase, so too will the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A southern wave moving east across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic during the early afternoon will trigger isolated showers and storms from the Southern Tier of NY south into northeast PA. Later in the day a northern wave approaching from the northwest will generate a broader area if convection that progresses northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours. Model guidance continues to indicate favorable instability, with ML CAPE values around 800-1000 J/Kg and steep low level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest the cap may weaken enough for storm development, though shear remains on the weaker side and may limit sustained or mature convection. The early afternoon activity over northeast PA should remain relatively weak, with greater concern for strong to locally severe storms accompanying the incoming front from the northwest. Western and central NY will have more time to erode the inversion and tap into slightly stronger deep layer shear. Sounding profiles also support a localized flash flood threat, with long skinny CAPE, PWATS of 1.5 to 2 inches, and warm cloud depths around 11-12 kft. This threat appears greatest from Thursday afternoon through the overnight period, particularly across northeast PA. Temperatures Friday will be slightly cooler, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s, though dew points remain elevated in the 60s and lower 70s. A lingering boundary may serve as a focus for additional convection Friday afternoon and evening. The threat for stronger storms Friday into Friday night will need to be monitored as deep layer shear increases in response to a modest jet streak aloft and embedded shortwave. By Friday night a longwave trough will move through the region, ushering in a cooler and less humid air mass for the weekend with highs mainly in the 70s and lower 80s. Rain chances will also diminish considerably as a drier pattern settles over the area. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A mix of fog and low ceilings have brought LIFR restrictions to KBGM, which is expected to last until at least 13z/14z. The current MVFR/Fuel Alt deck over KELM is also expected to last until at least 13z/14z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for all terminals after 14z. Outlook: Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM. Friday into Saturday...Cold front could move in and stall, leading to persistent showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT/ES AVIATION...KL  716 FXUS61 KPHI 081034 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 634 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation section for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Sunshine returns for today with light winds and highs generally in the low to mid 80s. 2) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through at least Friday as a cold front approaches and crosses through the region. 3) Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday for portions of the area before drier conditions return by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Sunshine returns for today with light winds and highs generally in the low to mid 80s. Weak high pressure will gradually build in as we head into the day today and this will bring a return to at least partly sunny skies with highs for most areas in the low to mid 80s. Winds will be light but generally onshore so that will keep it a bit cooler near the coast where highs should be mainly in the upper 70s. It will also be cooler over the Pocono Plateau where highs should be in the upper 70s as well. It will still be a little on the humid side but not nearly as oppressive as some of our recent days so the heat index should only be a few degrees higher than the temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through at least Friday as a cold front approaches and crosses through the region. Isolated showers start to develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning before coverage starts to increase more for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a piece of upper-level energy moves through the region. Winds out of the southwest on Thursday will allow moisture to increase through the day. From these showers and thunderstorms, there is the potential for heavy rain. PWAT values will increase to upwards of 2 inches along with a warm cloud layer process. All of this said, these showers and thunderstorms will have the ability to be efficient rainfall producers bringing the potential for more flash flooding. In fact the Weather Prediction Center now has much of the area in MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday. There is also the signal for a marginal severe weather threat. Increasing instability as temperatures reach the 80s for many along with rising humidity and some supportive lapse rates are forecast. The magnitude of shear values supporting storm organization is still a little more uncertain. The primary concern with any strong to severe thunderstorm is damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the MARGINAL risk for severe storms northward to include most of our County Warning with the exception of the Poconos and portions of central and northern NJ. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms look to develop ahead of the cold front moving southward into the area. Once again, as moisture increases ahead of the front, PWAT values look to increase upwards of 2 inches with these showers and thunderstorms having the potential to produce heavy rain and flash flooding. In terms of any severe weather threat, ML CAPES look to reach at least around 1000 j/kg and shear looks to be a bit stronger than Thursday. So there looks to be at least some threat for severe weather once again with the biggest threat again being damaging winds. Finally worth noting for Friday, temperatures around 90 for many along with higher dew points will result in heat indices peaking in the mid 90s to low 100s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday for portions of the area before drier conditions return by Sunday. Tricky forecast for Saturday as some of our forecast guidance clears the front far enough south to keep the area mainly dry while other guidance moves it through more slowly which would keep showers and storms around. We stayed close to the National Blend of Models (NBM) with this forecast and are forecasting POPs around 20-40 percent from the Philly area southward with lower POPs farther north where it stands a better chance of being dry. Expect highs mainly in the 80s with more comfortable humidity levels compared to Friday. Sunday is shaping up to be free of precipitation with seasonable temperatures, comfortable humidity levels, and a partly to mostly sunny sky. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Generally VFR except MVFR cigs could linger at times through the morning at ACY and even potentially at MIV. All sites should be VFR by the afternoon though. Northeast winds 3-7 knots becoming south and then SW through the afternoon at around 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR through the evening. Overnight, clouds will increase with some low stratus potentially affect TAF sites towards 12z. Winds south to southwest 3-7 knots. Low confidence. Outlook... Thursday through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, but scattered showers and storms could result in temporary restrictions to MVFR or even IFR. Sunday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... North-northeast winds around 10-20 knots early this morning shifting to east and then southeast through the day Wednesday and diminishing some as well. Generally expect seas around 3-4 feet. Little change for Wednesday night with southwest winds around 10 knots and seas around 3 feet or so. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...Conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Some showers and thunderstorms are likely over the waters by late Thursday into Thursday night and again for later Friday. Some scattered storms could linger Saturday before fair weather returns Sunday. Rip Currents... For today, northeast winds 10 to 15 mph will veer to east and then southeast in the afternoon diminishing to around 5-10 mph. The onshore flow when combined with moderate easterly swell at 7-8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk of rip currents across northern NJ beaches but LOW further south where winds are a little more relaxed (DE) and/or the shoreline is more parallel to the wind (southern NJ). For Thursday, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomes more southeasterly. This combination gives a MODERATE risk for the northern NJ beaches and DE beaches, but a LOW risk for the southern NJ beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Guzzo AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Guzzo MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Guzzo  851 FXUS61 KRNK 081038 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 638 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No headlines are expected, but storms today are still capable of localized flash flooding and damaging winds. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding. A frontal boundary stretches from west to east across the forecast area this morning and remain in the vicinity today. This boundary, along with an approaching upper wave will provide enough forcing for scattered afternoon storms to develop. Although shear remains nearly non existent, a very moist and unstable airmass in place should support a few strong multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Flash flooding remains a concern as well...Precipitable Water values still around 2" and a potential for training/backbuilding storms will persist into late this evening. Storms will begin to lessen by midnight. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the beginning of next week. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and roughly westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. This front will be the focus for daily threat of showers/storms with greatest coverage from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the front essentially stalling over the area, will have to contend with a multi-day threat for localized heavy rain and marginally severe storms. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes early Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for Friday and Saturday, with the front passing south of the region on Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal for the middle of July, and widespread excessive heat is not forecast to return, at least for this part of the country. The ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is shifting west over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Some areas of dense fog this morning. This fog will likely impact some terminals through at least 12Z/8AM. Once fog lifts, will have mostly VFR across the area. Afternoon storms possible again today, mainly from 17z through 00z time frame, with the potential of a few lingering beyond that period. Storms will be capable of very heavy rain and erratic gusty winds. In general expect light winds (under 5kts). Another round of early morning fog again on Thursday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Potentially drier early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/PM AVIATION...BMG/PM  843 FXUS64 KLIX 081038 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 538 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 501 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. - Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle. - Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Not a lot of difference in coverage of storms for today when compared to yesterday. The biggest difference will be new locations may get storms where they did not yesterday and some areas that were hit yesterday will get hit again today. Very typical for summer. Higher PW values will move through in waves for the next several days, at least through Friday. These higher values move through during the day and lower at night giving way to a diurnally driven storm environment. The weekend will be a bit different as high PW values come in and stay for a few days which means more coverage of heavy rainfall potential. Each day will carry the same potential for strong/severe storms which is pretty much every day there are any storms present during the summer. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Upper ridging is expected to build across the Rockies over the next few days. As that ridge builds into the central Plains early next week, there will be a weakness in the 500 mb pattern between that ridge and one between the Bahamas and Bermuda. That weakness or trough will move from the Ohio Valley Saturday, into our area by Monday and into the eastern Gulf Tuesday. A weak surface boundary may also be associated with the trough. Precipitable water values are expected to be near or above the 90th percentile Saturday night through Monday (2.10 inches) and possibly topping out around 2.3 inches on Monday before dropping to near the mean (1.7 inches) by late Tuesday. This should enhance (scattered to numerous) convective coverage during convectively favored times Sunday and Monday...peak heating hours over land zones, late night and morning in marine areas. Of course, with precipitable water values that high, there will be a threat of at least localized heavy rainfall, but pinpointing exactly where that will occur 5 or 6 days from now is problematical. As the column dries out somewhat late on Tuesday, we'll probably see less areal coverage of convection, and a lesser threat of heavy rainfall, but low level lapse rates steepen and DCAPE values increase to over 1000 j/kg, so the wind threat will increase. Still looks to be rather warm on Sunday, as storms may not develop until mid-afternoon, with highs probably 90 to 95. Areal coverage of storms increases Monday and likely develops a little earlier, so slightly lower high temperatures should be expected. Guidance from the Tuesday global operational models was within a degree or two of each other, so there's not likely to be much of a shift in the NBM numbers. Won't entirely rule out the need for a Heat Advisory Sunday, but at this point, the numbers say it's borderline at best. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 TSRA today will be timed in PROB30 groups as coverage will be somewhat similar to yesterday. Terminals that are impacted by TSRA will produce at most MVFR conditions temporarily. All activity will begin to decay with the loss of daytime heating. Outside TSRA, VFR will be the rule at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Winds will remain from a WSW direction through much of the week and speeds will remain mostly around 10kt but a few days could rise to near 15kt. Winds shift to due south then to the southeast by the weekend but remain around 10kt. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, mostly during the morning hours. A few may be strong producing erratic gusty winds and/or waterspouts, with locally hazardous seas. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE  038 FXUS61 KGYX 081043 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 643 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor update to the Aviation section for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Rain moves away from the coast, with a warm up getting underway today. 2. Return to above average temperatures during the latter half of the work week with increasing humidity. Thunderstorm chances increase Thursday afternoon onward. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Rain continues to move away from the coast this morning as low pressure tracks out to sea. Broad high pressure gradually builds in from the west through the daytime, bringing abundant sunshine. With the sunshine, temps rise into the 80s across most of the area today. A seabreeze is expected along the coast during the afternoon hours, knocking temps back into the 70s this afternoon. A quiet night is expected with lows generally bottoming out in the 60s. As dew points continue to creep up with the warming airmass, nighttime valley fog is likely again tonight through the northern valleys and the CT River Valley. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A typical summertime pattern is expected mid to late week as temperatures warm into the middle to upper 80s with a few spots approaching the 90 degree mark. The warmest day looks to be Thursday with dew points climbing into the middle to upper 60s. This may result in afternoon heat indices to approach 95F for a couple of hours, mainly across southern NH. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible, especially across the mtns and towards the Canadian Border as a cold front sags southward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible on Friday with high temperatures roughly 5 degrees cooler than those of Thursday but it will remain humid. Temperatures look to largely remain near or a bit above avg this weekend into early next week with typical diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms possible at times. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Valley fog at CON and LEB will dissipate over the next hour or two. Low cigs at RKD will also scatter by mid morning. VFR then prevails today, but valley fog will be possible again tonight at LEB, HIE, and CON. VFR likely prevails elsewhere tonight. Outlook: Thursday-Sunday: Mainly VFR conditions expected with TEMPO restrictions possible at times within scattered SHRA/-TSRA, especially during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Seas lower below SCA levels across the southern waters through daybreak. Fair conditions return as high pressure gradually builds across the waters today and low pressure exits the Gulf of Maine. Fair conditions continue tonight. Seas outside of the bays may approach 5 ft Thursday PM but otherwise winds and seas will likely largely remain below SCA criteria through early next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Clair/Tubbs AVIATION...Schroeter  068 FXUS64 KLUB 081043 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 543 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 543 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Daily thunderstorm chances return Thursday and continue through next week. - Hot temperatures continue through next week with a slight cool down beginning Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 After a quiet and pleasant Tuesday, a similar overnight period is expected. Current surface observations show light to moderate southeasterly winds. These upslope winds are causing higher terrain thunderstorms to develop across northeastern NM. However, these storms are not expected to reach our area. A lee surface trough currently across CO is expected to shift to the east by early Wednesday morning. This will result in shifting the winds to the southwest. Convergence along the southern boundary of the surface trough across the Texas Panhandle could result in isolated rain showers across northern zones of the CWA early in the morning. At the moment, chances for these rain showers are low, however cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, the night will be mild with lows in the upper 60s across the southwestern Texas Panhandle and upper 70s across the southern Rolling Plains. Wednesday will be very similar to today with dry conditions and hot temperatures. Upper ridging that expanded across the region today will prevail through Wednesday. Thickness increases due to the ridge will slightly warm temperatures Wednesday with highs in the upper 90s on the Caprock and triple digits off the Caprock. Early Wednesday morning, the aforementioned surface trough will tighten the pressure gradient giving way to breezy southwesterly winds through the early afternoon. Winds are expected to shift to the south to southeast later in the afternoon after the surface trough deamplifies and a secondary lee surface trough develops across southern CO and northern NM. Subsidence below the ridging will keep conditions dry. Southeasterly upslope flow will result in thunderstorms developing across northern NM. Northwesterly flow from the upper pattern will help scattered thunderstorms track to the southeast. CAMs are indicating these storms will die off before reaching our CWA border, however there is a low chance for these storms to sustain themselves and make their way into our northwestern corner. If this does occur, they are expected to be sub-severe and short-lived. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The main focus of the long term is hot temperatures and daily storm chances. The upper ridging mentioned in the short term discussion will slightly retreat Thursday, however slight thickness increases and southerly surface flow will bring hot temperatures again. Highs in the upper 90s are expected across the Caprock and triple digits off the Caprock. A passing upper embedded shortwave will aide in thunderstorm chances thursday evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeastern NM and shift southeast with the aide of upper northwesterly flow, however models indicate storms will reach the far southern Texas Panhandle during the evening before quickly dying out. The rest of the region is expected to remain dry. A similar set up is expected Friday, however with better surface moisture, we will see higher and more coverage thunderstorm chances. The upper ridging will slightly shift north although still sitting across southwestern CONUS. Another upper embedded shortwave will pass over NM and the Texas Panhandle. This will result in thunderstorms developing to the north and east of the forecast area before expanding into our region. Better coverage is expected Friday with thunderstorm chances across much of the caprock and northern portions off the Caprock. Over the weekend and the beginning of next week, the upper ridging will remain across southwestern CONUS, however is expected to expand northward across the Rockies while a very positively tilted upper trough sits across southeastern CONUS. Northwesterly flow with this regime and multiple passing shortwaves with bring daily thunderstorm chances through at least Tuesday. We will see upper 90s to lower 10s again on Friday and Saturday. The upper pattern change as well as daily precipitation chances will bring a slight cool down next week, however highs still remain in the 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR and southerly winds will continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...19  999 FXUS66 KPQR 081042 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 342 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow and varying degrees of morning cloud cover will bring seasonable temperatures July 8-11 along with continued dry weather. Temperatures trend warmer July 12-14 as upper level flow becomes southwesterly upstream of an amplifying upper level ridge over the central U.S. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday...The forecast is highlighted by persistent onshore flow, seasonable temperatures, and continued dry weather across the CWA. Model ensemble guidance is in good agreement for an extended period of near zonal flow aloft from Tuesday night through at least Thursday night. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly late Friday into the weekend. At the surface, onshore flow is expected to persist. This typical summer-time weather pattern will bring temperatures that are around normal for this time of year. Onshore flow at the surface will also result in varying degrees of morning cloud cover and plenty of afternoon sun. Expect daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for inland valleys with highs in the low 60s to low 70s along the coast and high Cascades through Saturday. As the weekend approaches, model spread for temperatures begins to increase slightly over the weekend for inland valleys, with highs ranging anywhere from the upper 70s to upper 80s, with the coast and Cascades warming in a similar pattern, thus having daytime highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. The daytime high will be highly dependent on how widespread morning cloud cover is and how early in the day cloud cover is able to scatter out. The current forecast favors more widespread and persistent cloud cover on Saturday when compared to Sunday. Beyond the weekend, confidence is high temperatures will begin to warm early next week with less cloud cover. This warming trend is in response to increasing 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures upstream of an amplifying upper level ridge over the central United States. Since the ridge axis will be located east of the Rocky Mountains and far removed from the Pacific Northwest, extreme heat is not expected with this synoptic pattern. Instead, a more modest warm-up is likely with high temperatures most likely peaking in the mid to upper 80s for inland valleys. Meanwhile, the coast will remain cooler with highs staying in the low 60s to low 70s. It should be noted that there is a 15-35% chance for highs of 90 degrees or warmer across the Willamette Valley, Portland/Vancouver metro, Columbia River Gorge, and Upper Hood River Valley on Monday and a 20-50% chance for highs of 90 degrees or warmer on Tuesday. Chances for highs above 95 degrees on Monday and Tuesday are around 10-20%, with the highest probability on Tuesday. While this pattern does not favor extreme heat; probabilistic HeatRisk guidance suggests there is a 20-50% chance for Moderate HeatRisk within the Willamette Valley,Portland/Vancouver metro, Columbia River Gorge, and Upper Hood River Valley Monday and Tuesday, with higher probabilities on Tuesday. /42-23 && .AVIATION...Onshore flow will continue through the TAF period, which will support marine stratus along the coast. Coastal sites are expected to maintain a mixture of IFR to LIFR conditions through at least 16Z-19Z Wednesday. Current observations are showing marine stratus pushing southward along the Columbia River bringing MVFR conditions to KPDX, KVUO and KTTD. Said stratus has a 30-50% chance of also spreading and impacting KUAO, KMMV and KHIO through 18Z-20Z Wednesday. 20-30% chance for MVFR stratus impacting KSLE and KEUG through 20Z Wednesday as well. Any lowered flight conditions that develop within the Willamette Valley should improve to VFR around 19Z-22Z Wednesday and should persist through the remainder of the TAF period. As for coastal locations, conditions should improve towards VFR/MVFR around 19Z-21Z Wednesday, but will return towards IFR/LIFR around 04Z-06Z Thursday. Northerly winds expected to increase around 18Z-20Z Wednesday to around 10 kt. In addition, gusts are expected to develop for inland and coastal locations. For inland locations, gusts up to 20 kt starting around 19Z-21Z Wednesday through 04Z-06Z Thursday. For coastal locations, gusts up to 25 kt possible starting around 18Z-20Z Wednesday through 03Z-05Z Thursday. Afterwards, northerly winds will continue but less than 10 kt for the remainder of the TAF period. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Current MVFR conditions will improve towards VFR starting around 17Z-19Z Wednesday. Northerly winds expected to increase around 18Z-20Z Wednesday to around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt starting around 19Z Wednesday through around 04Z Thursday. /42 && .MARINE...Broad troughing over the eastern Pacific will help to maintain north to northwest winds, generally 15 kt or less across all waters. Isolated gusts up to 20 kt possible this afternoon and Thursday afternoon for locations south of Cape Foulweather. Seas around 4 to 6 ft. Latest guidance suggests similar conditions continue into Thursday with winds easing slightly on Friday as a weak front approaches the waters. Otherwise, relatively benign conditions expected to persist through the week and into the weekend. /42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  095 FXUS61 KBGM 081044 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 644 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant change with the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity are expected across Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania today and tomorrow. 2) Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the region Thursday and Friday before quiet weather and high pressure build back in for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level low has shifted east with weak high pressure building in behind it. This will allow skies to gradually clear with winds becoming light and variable. Morning patchy fog is expected to burn off soon after sunrise. A cool start to the day will quickly give way to warming afternoon temperatures as abundant sunshine and the strong July sun angle help temperatures climb into the 80s across much of the region. Overall, a quiet and pleasant day is in store. Attention then turns to a weak shortwave approaching later this evening, bringing a small chance for showers across portions of the Southern Tier, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected elsewhere. KEY MESSAGE 2... Southwesterly flow develops Thursday as 850 mb temperatures rise into the +16 to +18 degrees C range. Surface temperatures should climb well into the 80s, with a few lower 90s not out of the question. Heat indices in the 90 to 95 degree range will be possible, especially across the Lake Ontario Plain and interior valleys. As temperatures and dew points increase, so too will the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A southern wave moving east across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic during the early afternoon will trigger isolated showers and storms from the Southern Tier of NY south into northeast PA. Later in the day a northern wave approaching from the northwest will generate a broader area if convection that progresses northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours. Model guidance continues to indicate favorable instability, with ML CAPE values around 800-1000 J/Kg and steep low level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest the cap may weaken enough for storm development, though shear remains on the weaker side and may limit sustained or mature convection. The early afternoon activity over northeast PA should remain relatively weak, with greater concern for strong to locally severe storms accompanying the incoming front from the northwest. Western and central NY will have more time to erode the inversion and tap into slightly stronger deep layer shear. Sounding profiles also support a localized flash flood threat, with long skinny CAPE, PWATS of 1.5 to 2 inches, and warm cloud depths around 11-12 kft. This threat appears greatest from Thursday afternoon through the overnight period, particularly across northeast PA. Temperatures Friday will be slightly cooler, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s, though dew points remain elevated in the 60s and lower 70s. A lingering boundary may serve as a focus for additional convection Friday afternoon and evening. The threat for stronger storms Friday into Friday night will need to be monitored as deep layer shear increases in response to a modest jet streak aloft and embedded shortwave. By Friday night a longwave trough will move through the region, ushering in a cooler and less humid air mass for the weekend with highs mainly in the 70s and lower 80s. Rain chances will also diminish considerably as a drier pattern settles over the area. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A mix of fog and low ceilings have brought LIFR restrictions to KBGM. It will slowly lift and dissipate through around 13z. The current MVFR/Fuel Alt deck over KELM is also expected to last until 13z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for all terminals after 13z. Outlook: Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR; High pressure building in, morning fog likely, mainly at ELM. Friday into Saturday...Cold front could move in and stall, leading to persistent showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT/ES AVIATION...KL  089 FXUS62 KFFC 081044 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 644 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered (15-30%) showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening, increasing through the weekend. A few storms may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph. - Heat index values peak each afternoon between 95 and 105. Heat advisory for portions of Southeast GA Today. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across the area this morning. A slightly drier airmass has moved in across the region which should help keep diurnally driven convection to a minimum this afternoon. We are still under West to Southwesterly flow with temps again expected in the 90s so some isolated showers and thunderstorms area still expected this afternoon and evening. SPC has the entire state under a general thunderstorm risk today. Best timeframe for convective storms looks to be between 2-10PM. Moisture begins to slowly increase across the region Thu so will see another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms but becoming more scattered in coverage. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Heading into the latter part of the week and weekend, flow aloft becomes more broad while the Bermuda high continues to churn over the Atlantic. Southwest winds return, advecting moisture into the southeast once again. For this, shower and thunderstorm chances increase into the weekend. By the end of the weekend, flow aloft responds to a stout ridge building out west, turning upper winds N/NW. At the surface, guidance does indicate a weak frontal boundary that could cross the area toward the beginning of next week. If this materializes, a brief period of drier air and a small break from the heat. Long range models show northern Georgia highs in the mid to upper 80s by Sunday with low 90s elsewhere. Overall, diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances daily and some cooler temps possible over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Some SCT mid to high clouds streaming across the area but mainly clear skies this morning. Ceilings and VSBYs should stay VFR except in and around any afternoon convection. With a bit drier airmass across the region, Diurnally driven convection should be very isolated so still keeping precip out of the TAF sites Today. Winds are light and variable this morning but will see winds increase into the 5-10kt range out of the W to SW just after sunrise. Wind speeds will diminish some after sunset. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 95 75 95 75 / 10 10 20 20 Atlanta 93 76 93 75 / 10 10 30 30 Blairsville 85 66 85 67 / 20 10 40 20 Cartersville 92 73 92 73 / 20 20 30 30 Columbus 95 76 94 75 / 10 10 30 20 Gainesville 93 73 92 74 / 10 10 20 20 Macon 95 76 95 75 / 10 0 20 10 Rome 91 72 91 72 / 20 20 40 20 Peachtree City 92 73 92 73 / 10 10 30 20 Vidalia 98 78 99 78 / 10 10 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ074-084>086-096>098-104>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....Patterson AVIATION...01  123 FXUS63 KDTX 081045 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 645 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of morning fog lift for mostly sunny skies and high temperatures near 90 this afternoon. - There is a chance of showers and ordinary thunderstorms toward the Tri Cities and northern Thumb tonight. - Thunderstorms spread southward while increasing coverage and intensity Thursday and Thursday night. An isolated damaging wind gust and locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards in thunderstorms. - Dry weather with near normal temperatures settle in Friday through the weekend. - A heat wave is possible next week (3 consecutive days of 90+ degrees). && .AVIATION... A stripe of low stratus/ground fog is in place from western Metro Detroit into the eastern Thumb early this morning. This is expected to dissipate within the first hour or so of the new forecast period as diurnal mixing begins. Otherwise, high pressure maintains benign aviation weather today with VFR skies as cloud is confined to pockets of high cirrus and light west-southwest winds. An approaching cold front overnight could offer a shower chance around MBS near the end of the current forecast period however better potential looks to arrive Thursday morning. D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for visibility 1/2SM or less and ceilings 200 feet or less early this morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 DISCUSSION... Weak high pressure maintains control of conditions in SE Mi while shifting toward the Atlantic coast and SE States today. After areas of fog, morning sun allows full daytime heating into pockets of cumulus for the afternoon. Light SW wind then helps temperatures finish near 90, a few degrees above normal for early July. Not far to the NW is the next cold front focusing showers/storms along and ahead of it into the northern Great Lakes. Consensus of the new 00Z regional/global deterministic models and hi-res ensembles shows activity still north of MBS early this evening. This assumes the ongoing upper Midwest convection fades on schedule by early afternoon, before the next round of surface based storms develop farther west again during peak heating. The front and low level moisture axis extend roughly from the Straits into the central Plains late this afternoon ahead of the surface wave also on schedule to ripple along the frontal zone tonight. The low amplitude short wave and surface reflection delay the southward progress of the front which is already subject to a mostly zonal large scale mid/upper level configuration on the south fringe of the northern stream westerlies. This timing limits shower/storm potential to the Tri Cities and northern Thumb later tonight and Thursday morning, a trend represented adequately in the NBM data. Slow southward progress of the front is also a consistent theme in the latest model solutions for Thursday and Thursday night as the boundary remains on the southern fringe of the northern stream westerlies across Canada. Very slow progression of the long wave pattern nudges the front southward into a favorable position to focus convection across southern Lower Mi, especially during peak heating in the afternoon and evening. Predictability is low on individual low amplitude short waves and/or MCVs, however the front and leading moisture axis with moderate zonal flow aloft still provide a favorable storm environment. HREF and REFS mean surface based CAPE are in good agreement with forecasts in the 1000-1500 J/kg range and with 0-6 km westerly bulk shear near 30 knots adequate for low end multicell clusters capable of an isolated damaging wind gust in line with the SPC Day2 Marginal Risk. However, locally heavy rainfall may end up being the primary hazard as the storm environment carries PW in the 1.5 to 2 inch range and considering the slow pace of frontal passage. The northern stream westerlies amplify just enough to build high pressure over northern Ontario into the northern Great Lakes early Friday. This pushes the front south of the Ohio border after some lingering showers during the morning. Slightly cooler and less humid air gains ground in the afternoon and especially Friday night when temperature guidance offers lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A lengthy period of dry weather follows for the weekend as the northern Ontario surface high builds into Lower Mi with temperatures near or slightly above normal through Sunday. A new round of heat is then on track to increase over the Great Lakes as the mid/upper level ridge builds over the central States. It is trending toward a better position to block Gulf/Atlantic humidity, however a warming trend appears solid for high temperatures returning into the lower and mid 90s during the early to middle part of next week. MARINE... The high pressure system that was over the Great Lakes the last several days will wash out across the Appalachia region today which veer wind direction to the south and southwest. A weak pressure gradient will maintain light winds while conditions remain dry for most locations, outside of some rain shower chances across the northern Great Lakes today and tonight. A cold front will then move through the region Thursday which will bring scattered to numerous rain showers along with some embedded thunderstorms. Lingering rain and thunderstorm chances will be possible on Friday across the southern Great Lakes before high pressure builds back in, providing dry weather and light winds through the weekend. HYDROLOGY... A slow moving cold front settles through southern Lower Michigan Thursday and Thursday night serving as the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area. Rainfall totals averaging around 0.5 inch are most likely with a chance of near 1 inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm coverage. The slow movement of the front could also produce more than one round of thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than 1 inch within a few hours time. Flooding potential in this scenario is still limited to ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of urban and other prone areas. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers into Friday morning and then comes to an end Friday afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....KDK DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......AM HYDROLOGY....BT You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  134 FXUS63 KIWX 081045 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 645 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet today with highs in the mid/upper 80s. - Thunderstorms are likely Thursday evening and overnight. Isolated severe storms and heavy rain are possible with the best chances south of US-30. - Low chances for a few storms Friday and Saturday but turning dry and hot again next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another tranquil weather day today as broad mid/upper level ridging and low level theta-e sink remain centered directly over our CWA. Some patchy fog is possible this morning but limited near- surface moisture and some clouds in the SE will keep coverage and density in check. Highs today likely very similar to yesterday though perhaps a degree or two warmer given some subtle WAA and airmass modification under strong July sun. Lows tonight only in the mid/upper 60s due to slowly increasing low level moisture and a slightly warmer afternoon. Main forecast concern is thunderstorm potential Thu evening/ overnight. A weak (convectively modified) midlevel shortwave will approach the area Thu evening. A modest increase in low level SW flow ahead of this wave will bring better moisture into the region but it's worth noting far better theta-e surge remains focused over central and southern IL/IN. Midlevel lapse rates remain paltry and 0-1km MLCAPE values likely struggle to get much above 1000 J/kg. Wind/shear profiles are also light with only around 20 kts of flow at 850mb and 0-6km bulk shear values are 25-30 kts at best. These parameters are marginally supportive of a few strong/severe storms. However, expect coverage of strong storms to remain low given weak mid/upper level support for upward ascent and better moisture convergence focused to our south. The best chances for a few strong storms currently appear to be roughly 22-04Z south of US-30 but that could change over the next 24-36 hours. Will also have to keep an eye on the overnight hours as some solutions send an MCS through central IL/IN late Thu night into Fri morning that could clip our southern zones with some heavy rain. Still think better chances for this will be just south of our area along the main moisture gradient but confidence isn't high and will watch this closely over the next few forecast cycles. The rest of the forecast is mainly quiet. A few SCT storms will be possible again late Friday and perhaps on Sat. Friday's chances will be dependent on exact timing and evolution of potential morning MCS but suspect a return to dry/stable NE flow behind this wave will keep most of the area dry for most of this time. Again, best chances for a stray shower/storm will be south of US-30. No severe weather expected given even more marginal instability and shear profiles. Large/strong (600+ dam) midlevel ridge then expected to develop over the central CONUS early next week and likely nose into our region at some point. Still some disagreement here with GFS keeping the ridge just to our west and allowing a backdoor cold front midweek while ECMWF (and to a lesser extent the Canadian) bulldoze the ridge into our region leaving us hotter and drier. Slight preference for the latter but overall no changes to the concensus initialization at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure and relatively dry air throughout the column will ensure VFR conditions and light winds through the period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078-177- 277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...AGD  335 FXUS63 KARX 081046 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 546 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of thunderstorms are expected today, one north of I-94 this morning and a second across much of the area this afternoon and evening. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall with modest probabilities (30-50%) for over 1 inch of rainfall and localized spots seeing upwards of 2 to 4 inches. - Some storms this afternoon and evening may be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. - Seasonable temperatures are expected throughout much of the week with highs in the low to mid 80s before warming through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today - Thursday: Storms Expected, Some Strong to Severe with the Potential for Heavy Rainfall this Afternoon and Evening Storms ongoing early this morning across portions of central MN will shift into north-central WI throughout the early morning hours as suggested throughout much of the CAMs as a shortwave impulse situated in western MN pushes eastward. Noting some gravity wave signatures in the convection over western MN that might try to propagate slightly more southward of where the CAMs currently suggest, overall not confident in how this would manifest but could see some strong wind gusts with any organized convection north of I-94 early this morning, especially considering the respectable 0-3km shear profiles in the recent RAP. Otherwise, as this early morning convection in north-central WI departs, the key question is exactly where the resultant boundary left behind is located to initiate afternoon convection. Run-to-run consistency in many of the CAMs has not been overly consistent with a variety of storm modes and locations being present keeping forecast confidence for the afternoon and evening somewhat low. That being said, the environment depicted in the RAP suggests fairly weak deep-layer shear profiles with relatively skinny instability. As a result, would expect any supercellular structures that do develop to struggle as updraft/downdraft separation would not be maintained for very long. Consequently, would expect storms to trend multi-cellular or linear quickly depending on what forcing is present. Overall, the hail threat with these storms appears somewhat limited due to the deep warm cloud depths, lack of robust deep layer shear and skinny instability profiles. However, certainly could see some damaging wind gusts with significant precipitation loading in storms as well as with any linear modes. In addition to the severe potential, the parameter space for heavy rainfall is respectable with precipitable waters of around 1.75" and warm cloud depths to around 3.5-4km. Consequently, the 00z HREF has medium probabilities (30-50%) for rainfall amounts over 1" across much of the local area. However, cannot rule out some localized rainfall amounts in the 2-4" range as the 00z HREF has some amounts in this range in the higher percentile members. The key point of uncertainty that remains is again related to where storms may frequent the same locations as much of the CAMs have conflicting opinions on where convection may trek earlier in the afternoon. That being said, there has been some increasing signal during the late afternoon and evening for a more pronounced frontal passage to interact with convection in the local area and force it upscale, most notably seen in the recent HRRR and NAM Nest runs. This would likely coincide with a shortwave, currently situated over South Dakota, pushing through the area during the evening and overnight. In this scenario, more organization of cold pools could lead to a damaging wind risk as well. Additional storms cannot be ruled out overnight and into the early morning hours with any differential heating boundaries, but given the degree of surface stability overnight and into the early morning hours on Thursday, the severe potential with these should be minimal. Friday - Early Next Week: Warmer Temperatures Return Over the weekend, mid to upper level ridging begins to build across the United States which is noted in most/all of the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Heights associated with this ridge are expected to be fairly impressive, reaching 594-600dam at 500hPa, which the 07.00z NAEFS highlights as near or exceeding the maximum heights within climatology. Surface temperatures trend warmer this weekend into next week in response to these rising heights. There's still quite a bit of spread within the various ensemble suites regarding what the temperatures will ultimately be, but interquartile spreads suggest highs in the upper 80s are favored, but possibly reach into the low 90s. Dewpoint temperatures also increase during this period as the 07.07z NBM suggests a 30-60% probability to exceed 70 degrees highest over northeast Iowa, translating to apparent temperatures in the 90s. Will need to continue monitoring trends, but a return to warm and muggy conditions looks to be on the horizon && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 546 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions across much of the area this morning gives way to increasing coverage of storms by afternoon with corresponding MVFR and IFR reductions. Storms will begin to develop during the mid- afternoon and will form into a broken line while gradually pushing south with time. These storms may be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. Storms will eventually push south of I-90 in the 00z to 03z timeframe leaving behind low-VFR cigs in their wake. As we head into the overnight, low-level moisture stuck under the inversion will aid in developing likely (70- 90% chance in the recent HREF) MVFR stratus with even the potential for IFR stratus (40-70% chance in the recent HREF) at KRST after 09z. Winds will be from the southwest during the daytime hours today but will gradually shift to northerly overnight in the wake of a frontal passage. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Falkinham/Naylor AVIATION...Naylor  332 FXUS63 KFGF 081046 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 546 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 1 out of 5 risk Thursday overnight for the Devils Lake basin. Isolated severe storms possible. - Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The higher end scenerio of severe storms and very heavy rainfall overnight did not occur. That is a good thing. Flood watch was cancelled early. A few showers yet around SE ND into WC MN early this morning, otherwise a dry day today with mix of cloud and sun. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...Synopsis... Ensembles are in good agreement with the large scale pattern over the next 7 days, depicting the current zonal flow to transition into a sort of omega block pattern with ridging across the central CONUS. Details less certain of course. ...Severe and Flash Flood Potential... Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough across Montana slowly propagating eastward. As this feature continue to propagate eastward this evening, anticipate a strong 850mb jet to develop with nose of this feature into the southern Red River Valley. Currently, showers are developing along a 700mb boundary across central North Dakota, with additional activity associated with an MCV across the southern RRV and west central Minnesota. This activity will continue eastward, although impacts will be minimal. Later this evening, the 850mb front will shift north as the low level jet increases. Surface instability will remain across South Dakota, but with instability along the elevated front and stronger warm air advection there is a very high chance for elevated thunderstorms along and south of I-94/Hwy10. Severe Potential...Freezing levels are near 15 Kft, but given the elevated nature of the storms potential exists for near severe to severe hail given MUCAPE near 2000 J/Kg and effective shear near 50 knots. Potential also exists for severe wind given the anticipated strong low level bulk shear, even with the storm being elevated. The elevated nature of the storms will limit severe potential, but will not eliminate severe potential. Excessive rainfall/flash flood potential...Anticipate heavy rainfall rates given PWATS near 1.75 inches along with soundings indicating efficient rainfall rate processes (plus high freezing level). Given the west to east position of the elevated front, potential also exists for training storms. CAM guidance indicating mean rainfall 1-2 inches with max rainfall near 5 inches. Given all of this, plus the rain that fell yesterday (1-2 inches) across west central Minnesota, will issue a flood watch for flash flood potential (10p-7a). ...Dangerous Heat... As the ridging builds into the weekend, anticipate max temperatures 95F-100F (maybe a bit warmer) across much of the region Saturday through Monday. Heat risk, wet bulb globe temp, and heat index values all indicate a dangerous heat episode. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 953 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection continues to be the main aviation impacts for the next few hours as a weakening thunderstorm complex brings some rain and lightning to the KBJI and KFAR area. Should start transitioning over to more VCSH by 06Z with just a few lingering spits as the primary complex moves further from our airports. Clouds behind the convective complex look to remain VFR, with light and variable winds starting to pick up out of the northeast by tomorrow morning. Decreasing clouds and northeast winds 8 to 10 kts will continue through most of tomorrow, and winds will become light and variable by the end of the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None.&& $$ UPDATE...Riddle/JR DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...JR  309 FXUS64 KAMA 081045 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 545 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Hot temperatures continue to hold for the Panhandles with potential to see triple-digit temperatures this afternoon and Thursday. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to return starting tonight in the northwest, with activity possible clear into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure continues to dominate the combined Panhandles with temperatures reaching the upper 90s to 100-105. Mid level moisture continues to be present with cumulus clouds likely to form in the afternoon heat. Scattered high based clouds may continue to help provide relief for PDC and the Canadian River Valley from reaching full heating potential and is the one of the main reasons a heat advisory is likely not needed today or tomorrow afternoon. Breezy southwest winds associated with a surface trough will also help mix some of the heat from the canyon walls out of the park. With the mid level moisture, will be on the watch for some disturbances in the flow aloft to spark thunderstorms both this afternoon/evening and again tomorrow afternoon/evening. The northwest has the best chances to see storm activity move in from off the higher terrain to the west. Looking at having quasi northwest flow over the next day or two with the best chance for PoPs in the northwest to northern combined Panhandles. PoPs tonight are currently sitting at around 20 to 30 percent. Going into tomorrow, PoPs spread over much more of the area with the northern half of the combined Panhandles seeing 50 to 60 PoPs tomorrow night. This will be thanks to a much larger shortwave expected to move across the Central to Southern Great Plains. For today a modest 500 to maybe 1200 J/Kg of MUCAPE will be possible with little to no shear to work with. The main threat for potentially severe storms will be the high based LCLs and DCAPE values leading to a downburst potential. Strong lapse rates may lead to quick storm growth and with vertically stacked storms quick downbursts. Tomorrow, shear may increase some to around 25 kts with a slight increase in the severe potential. However, with such warm mid to upper levels, hail growth difficult to achieve. Gusty summer time thunderstorms likely to be the threat still just with longer lasting storms that could scattered across more of the Panhandles under better upper level support. CAPE values are progged to increase especially across the northern Panhandles, potentially upwards of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg MU. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Staying under the eastern periphery of a mid to upper level ridge, the combined Panhandles are expected to continue to see highs in the mid 90s to lower triple digits through the extended period. Mid to upper level disturbances are expected to continue to help with storm chances through the weekend as well. With PoPs increasing to upwards of 65 percent Friday night. Lowering back to 20s and maybe 30s Saturday night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorms will be possible mostly after 00z today for Guymon and Dalhart, but won't rule out a thunderstorm starting around either terminal between 21z-00z. However, confidence for that is too low at this time. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong downdrafts. Otherwise, expect winds to become breezy out of the southwest during the day today, mostly in the morning before weakening some in the afternoon. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...52  380 FXUS64 KEWX 081048 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 548 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 539 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Lowering rain chances Wednesday and Thursday, but increasing again Friday through at least the weekend. - Daytime heat mainly in the 90s continues into next week with heat index values reaching into the 100-105 range for many areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A weak shear axis over TX is connecting two synoptic scale lows, one to the SW over Mexico and the other to the NE over the mid Mississippi valley. These two anchors are pulling opposite each other, but there was still enough shear and pooled moisture to give pretty good coverage of rainfall, especially over areas S of Highway 90. This looks to be a slight over achievement versus what was expected, and this has us looking at a few stray coastal showers or storms in the daytime for Wednesday despite low PoPs by the majority of solutions. We still saw a good bit of heating and temperatures were mostly in line with projections despite the added cloud cover. Therefore, we should still expect a healthy dose of summer heat for today, regardless of whether the skies get cloud-filled or not. Thursday will also reflect the steady hot days with not enough shear aloft to generate significant rain chances. But thanks to the overachieving rain events over the spring and so far this summer, the summer heat has mostly been curbed by weakly dominant subtropical ridging over TX and enough moisture in the soil and vegetation to keep most areas away from those triple digits. The apparent temperature isn't holding back, and there continue to be daily areas getting into the 100s up to 105. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday starts the transition to increasing moisture as a disturbance/inverted trough over the southwestern Gulf lifts northward and brings a good chance for showers and storms back into the picture for the weekend. PWATs will surge into the 2-2.25" range at times this weekend, and some of the models are showing a pretty active area over the eastern half Friday afternoon. Despite the added moisture, the summer heat isn't expected to pull back much, but perhaps the ambient temps might dip a few degrees. Model timing has been inconsistent, leading to some related inconsistency in the model blends. Given that this moisture could be enough to trigger new activity at most if not all hours of the day, we'll mainly favor 30 to 50 type PoPs this weekend, and hopefully get better timing signals as more hi res and rapid refresh model data comes into the picture. Going into the work week the upper ridge strengthens, but is centered well north of TX. Thus we could wind up with multiple days of tropical rain chances or at least some air-mass daytime convection going into the middle of the week. Daytime highs remain on a plateau with most areas seeing low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Patchy low-level clouds for portions of the central half of the region are currently resulting in MVFR ceilings across the San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF). For the first few hours of the TAF period, the sky coverage could fluctuate between VFR conditions with sct low clouds and MVFR with bkn to ovc low clouds. By mid-morning, all sites should resume VFR levels with light to moderate south to southeasterly breezes. Highest wind gusts could reach into the 20 to 25 kt range in the afternoon through the evening hours. Rain chances are lower today but there could be a stray shower at times. However, locations to the eastin the coastal plains would be most favored. With this in mind, chances remain too low to insert any mentions within this TAF package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 96 77 95 / 10 0 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 96 75 95 / 10 0 0 30 Burnet Muni Airport 74 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 73 94 74 92 / 10 0 0 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 96 75 95 / 10 0 0 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 97 77 95 / 10 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 94 76 93 / 10 0 0 30 Stinson Muni Airport 75 95 76 93 / 10 0 0 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...62  450 FXUS63 KAPX 081051 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 651 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers & storms increase thru the day today, esp tonight into Thurs. Isolated strong storms are possible along with localized flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: SPC mesoanalysis currently shows plenty of column moisture pooling across portions of MN and vicinity, poised to make a run eastward and advect into northern MI today into Thursday. Combine that with several embedded west to east, or WNW to ESE perturbations within the flow, convectively agitated or otherwise, and the chances for showers and thunderstorms increases through the day today, continuing into Thursday. Additionally, sfc frontal boundary will slowly sag southward today into Thursday, with the potential for low pressure system to slightly organize and ride along this boundary. This could result in a corridor of enhanced rainfall. The best combination of low level convergence, upper level divergence (due to multiple disturbances in the upper level flow), and progged instability will be tonight into portions of Thursday, realizing the best potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and isolated stronger storms capable of gusty winds. Locales with recent heavy rains (Tip of the Mitt and portions of Leelanau, Antrim and Charlevoix counties) will be more sensitive to heavy rain rates and thus a slightly heightened flooding potential. Showers and storms this morning and midday will likely focus across Tip of the Mitt and Eastern Upper, with northwest lower MI in play afternoon/evening and beyond as convection west of Lake MI tries to develop and move into northern MI. Looking at the latest model guidance shows a wide range of outcomes, pretty typical for a system such as this. One piece of guidance that is quite bullish is the RAP, which is insistent on a more compact low pressure system riding the sfc frontal boundary with significant sfc convergence near and just to the north of this feature and subsequently unleashing some healthy rain totals across some of the aforementioned sensitive areas. There are definitely other pieces of guidance hinting at a healthy rainfall as well, with the progged environment/sounding tonight into early Thursday nothing short of tropical. The limiting factor may be the instability quality, but when the column is this saturated with warm cloud depths ~12+ kft, efficient and heavy rainfall will occur with the slightest hints of convective precipitation. This particular model (RAP) may easily be influenced by convective feedback producing a more compact low pressure system and enhanced area of convergence, so will need to monitor model and observational trends. That does not change the environment in place tonight into Thursday, just depends on the quality of the instability and where the best lift sets up. Showers and storms, capable of locally heavy rain, will continue on Thursday, a southward trend with time into northern and central lower Michigan as the forcing and best instability/moisture oozes southward. Although moisture is quite high and EBWD is pretty marginal, would not be surprised to see a isolated stronger storm near Saginaw Bay and vicinity based on the current progged soundings, given convection initiates. Precipitation chances will wane through the night, with a mostly dry weekend. Temperatures warm back into the 80s this weekend as ridging builds across a good chunk of the CONUS and thus heights rise across N MI. Couple pieces of deterministic guidance show a piece of energy well to the north and east with the potential to produce precipitation on Sunday, but ensemble 50th percentile 24 hr QPF is not impressed with this potential, and neither is our current fcst for this weekend. The heat is on...across the central portions of the country next week as potent/anomalous high pressure builds across the Northern Plains vicinity. Consequently, this feature will keep northern Michigan pretty warm at least into early to mid next week (plenty of 80s with some 90s sprinkled in). We'll be keeping an eye on any robust pieces of energy on the north and northeast side of this high pressure system attempting to, or not to, slide into N MI. Right now, the signal for impactful weather within the ENS suite is pretty low, at least during the early portions of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 651 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions this morning will give way to increasing chances for MVFR cigs developing this afternoon into this evening, especially across KCIU and KPLN. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany these lower cigs, although uncertainty remains rather significant with regards to organization, coverage, and timing of these showers/storms. MVFR (IFR?) cigs and shower/storm threat will expand south with time this evening into the overnight. Some of these storms could produce brief periods of heavy rain, resulting in vis restrictions at times. In addition, some gusty and erratic winds are possible with any stronger storms. Further adjustments to the forecast are more than anticipated.&& .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...MSB  499 FXUS62 KMHX 081053 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 653 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A heat advisory has been issued today for Greene, Lenoir, Duplin, Onslow, Jones, Carteret, Craven, and Pamlico Counties starting at 11AM. Have cancelled the small craft advisory for the coastal waters. Have updated the aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible once again today as a weak cold front washes out across the region. Some of these storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain. 2) Dangerous heat and humidity persists across ENC into this weekend. 3) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms later this weekend into early next week as instability builds across ENC. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorm activity from last night has since weakened with just some isolated showers noted across ENC this morning. Latest surface analysis shows this ongoing activity is currently riding east just to the south of a slow moving cold front which is noted near the NC/VA border. General expectation is for this front to gradually move south through the day eventually stalling and washing out across ENC, bisecting the area around or just north of Hwy 70 this afternoon. This backdoor cold front will combine with the seabreeze and will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development later this morning and afternoon. While CAM guidance has come in slightly drier than previous runs, I am a bit skeptical of this outcome given the poor performance of the CAMs over the last few days. For now to not completely rule it out, have lowered PoPs slightly closer to 40-60% to lend credence to the potential scattered nature of activity. But will note, synoptically it would make sense to have more precip coverage today as compared to yesterday, so wont be shocked if I am slightly too low on PoPs and adjustments upwards are needed later this morning. To the south of this front a warm and unstable airmass will be in place outside of the N'rn OBX and far NE'rn counties as the front will move through these locations first. A combination of ample moisture and hot temps today will result in MLCAPE building during peak heating to around 2000-3000 J/kg across ENC with the highest values noted along the Crystal Coast and just south of the aforementioned front. Will note some guidance has MLCAPE values building closer to 3000+ J/kg this afternoon which could act to increase thunderstorm strength. In addition to this, with the front moving south we may have slightly more deep layer shear as compared to previous days (closer to 25kts). All of this could lead to a few storms becoming strong to severe in nature this afternoon. SPC has portions of ENC under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather with damaging winds (40-60 mph) and small hail being the main hazard within the strongest storms. In addition to this, given the slow moving nature of the front, storm motions will be rather slow, and with PWATs generally around 2-2.5 inches across the region any thunderstorm that develops will be a rather efficient rainmaker. So in addition to the severe threat we will also have a threat for localized flash flooding, and WPC has kept much of the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as well. Beyond today, PoPs return back to climo (20-40%) as more typical seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly build in the process as ridging begins to build once again, with heat indices around 100-110 in the forecast later this week. As we get into the weekend, an upper trough and associated surface front look to approach from the north and west bringing the next threat for increased shower and thunderstorm activity KEY MESSAGE 2...While we sound like a broken record, we will continue to be hot and humid across ENC into this weekend. Today the hottest temps (upper 80s to mid 90s) will be noted south of the previously mentioned cold front today. While cooler temps (low to mid 80s) will be noted along the OBX which is where the front will move through first. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s we will once again see heat indices today around the 100-110F range across the Crystal Coast. As a result have issued a heat advisory for the same area as yesterday as areas from Greene/Pamlico County south have the best chance to reach heat advisory criteria given later timing for showers and storms here. This also coincides with the major heat risk footprint across the CWA. As we get into Thursday and into this weekend expect to see continued hot and humid conditions as temps get into the 90s each day with the hottest temps occuring on Thurs/Fri. Lows each night only get into the mid 70s to low 80s not bringing much relief to the area each night. With dewpoints in the 70s there could be widespread heat indices around 100-110 each afternoon from Thurs into Sat. Probabilistic heat risk shows a 60% + chance for reaching major heat risk values with the greatest risk coming on Thurs/Fri so additional more widespread heat advisories may come into play over the next few days before we finally cool off Sun/early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3... Some changes with regards to this weekend as instability has trended down with MLCAPE values likely closer to 1000-2000 J/kg this weekend as more cloud cover may be noted this weekend. Either way, with an upper level trough, mid level shortwave and surface front approaching from the north and west this weekend an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances is likely. While instability has trended down, with a cold front moving into the area from the north and west could see a few stronger storms this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A mix of low stratus and patchy fog has developed across portions of inland ENC this morning with low stratus and thunderstorms noted along the OBX near Hatteras. Expect any leftover low stratus and fog to dissipate within the next hour or two across ENC. Have put TEMPO groups in for reduced ceilings/vis until 13Z to account for this. Afterwards expect widespread VFR conditions outside of the OBX where patchy areas of sub-VFR conditions will continue as isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms impact the area. As we get into the late morning and afternoon, a cold front will begin to approach from the north which will bring yest another round of TSRA to portions of ENC. Any thunderstorm that impacts the area would bring a threat for brief periods of sub-VFR ceilings/vis mainly after 18Z. For now given the scattered nature of this activity have just used VCTS and PROB30 groups at the terminals to account for this threat. Otherwise once the front stalls and washes out this evening will likely see a return to VFR conditions to all of ENC. Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): Beyond Wed, more typical iso to widely sct activity expected as ridging rebuilds into ENC so a much lower threat for sub-VFR conditions. However, as we get into the weekend as an upper level trough and associated surface front approaches increasing chances for showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions will be noted. && .MARINE... Have issued a small craft advisory along the coastal waters from Hatteras Island south to Onslow Bay as latest obs have shown frequent SW'rly wind gusts up to 25 kts overnight. While this small craft advisory currently goes out until 8AM today, have seen a recent reduction in wind gusts so could end this small craft earlier than previously anticipated. Either way, latest obs acrossour waters show widespread 10-20 kt SW'rly winds with a few gusts up to 25 kts across our waters this morning. With a weak backdoor cold front approaching from the north, expect the gradient to weaken across our waters today allowing winds to ease to 5-15 kts by this afternoon. Winds will shift to a NE-ENE direction to the north of the front and remain SW'rly to the south of the front. The front is forecast to bisect our waters around Hatteras Island before washing out this evening. In addition to the weak wind shift, scattered showers and thunderstorm will be possible today along this front bringing a risk for locally enhanced winds and seas. As we get into tonight, front dissipates ending the thunderstorm threat and allowing winds to become S'rly across all waters varying from SE-SW at 5-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 2-5 ft into Tuesday morning across our coastal waters. Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): A summer time pattern with a strengthening thermal trough is forecast from Thurs on into this weekend. This will result in increasing SW'rly winds each afternoon through Sat bringing our next threat for small craft conditions to our waters. Next frontal passage occurs over the weekend as well brining increased chances or showers and thunderstorms Sat night into Sun. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ079-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCF AVIATION...RCF MARINE...RCF  503 FXUS63 KOAX 081053 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 553 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-normal temperatures continue through the work week, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. - Periodic chances for storms Wednesday through Friday. Main hazards with any strong to severe storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding. - A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected this weekend into next week. Excessive heat is a concern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet weather is expected tonight, but a gradual increase in middle to upper- level clouds are an indication of changes to come. Overall, light winds and mostly clear skies can be expected overnight as temperatures fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will slide east across the Upper Midwest, pushing a cold front into northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. A few showers or storms may linger as the front pushes into the area, but these should be limited and weakening. Temperatures warm into the lower 90s during the afternoon, helping to erode the capping inversion. Concurrently, a secondary shortwave moves east out of the central Rockies. This feature and the cold front help to initiate storms along the front by mid-afternoon across northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa. Storms gradually sag southeast through the afternoon and evening along the front, approaching the I-80 corridor during the evening, before moving into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning. There is a marginal to slight risk (5-15% chance) of severe storms with this activity. The main hazards will be damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding with any strong to severe storms. Overall, limited wind shear and high cloud bases should help to limit much of the severe risk. Thursday and Friday likely offer the nicest weather of the forecast period. Despite the cold front, clouds keep temperatures warm in the upper 60s and lower 70s heading into Thursday morning. In contrast, cooler temperatures filter in by afternoon with middle 80s for all. Additional showers and storms chances (10-30%) are expected across the southern half of the area from activity spreading east from the Rockies. That said, surface high pressure limits this potential. Friday offers much of the same weather as Thursday, though rain chances are a touch higher (20-40%). By this weekend into next week, a return to hot and humid weather is forecast. Upper-level ridging and increasing heights will effectively keep the area dry through this time period with increasing temperatures throughout. Upper 80s return this weekend, before 90s to near 100 arrive heading through next week. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, heat indices near 100 are probable. This heat will continued to be monitored as any further increases could result in excessive heat concerns. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 549 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect southerly winds to dominate the day until a boundary pushes into northeast Nebraska this afternoon. Winds north of that boundary will be coming out of the north. Thunderstorms are possible most of the afternoon, evening, and into the overnight, generally working form the northwest to the southeast. Timing is still nebulous at this point. There is lots of uncertainty and each site may get more than one round of storms, but I've highlighted the most likely two hours of -TSRA at all three sites. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...Nicolaisen  573 FXUS61 KBTV 081055 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 655 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes have been made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Tranquil weather will continue across the region today, with showers and some thunderstorms likely Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the region. 2. Seasonably warm and dry heading into the weekend. Shower chances return to start next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Other than some overnight fog in some of the more favored locations, tranquil weather is expected to prevail across the region today. High temperatures will climb into the 80s areawide this afternoon, with plenty of sunshine expected throughout the day. The period of active weather continues to be Thursday afternoon and evening as showers and thunderstorms develop across the region as a cold front moves through the region. SPC has placed the northern portion of the region in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, meaning isolated severe storms are possible. The most favorable conditions for any thunderstorm develop look to be along the International Border, where more favorable instability and shear are expected. Some of the latest CAM guidance shows about 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across the region. Model soundings show the potential for some heavy rainfall with any storms that do develop, with warm cloud depths over 10kft and favorable CAPE profiles, however it looks to be a fairly narrow band of anomalously deep moisture and things should be moving enough to limit impacts. The cold front looks to shift southward overnight Thursday into Friday, with drier conditions expected across the region by the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind a cold front on Friday, drier air aloft will advect from the northwest lending to a comfortable, seasonably warm weekend. Saturday will be the pick of the weekend with cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and lower dewpoints in the low 50s. A brisk north wind to around 10-20 MPH will bring a slight bite to the air Saturday afternoon, especially in the Champlain Valley. By Sunday, temperatures start to rebound back to the mid to upper 80s, with a positively tilted long wave trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic. A cutoff low will dive south from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday as ridging slides south from Canada. Dry air in the mid to upper levels should shunt much of the precipitation to our south, but some shower activity in southern Vermont along the northern periphery of the system, due to advective southerly flow, cannot be ruled out. Models then become spread on a system heading into next week. A weak cold front is expected to slide south early next week as surface high pressure somewhat breaks down over southern New England. Model timing remains large with the GFS ensembles depicting a more delayed frontal passage closer to Tuesday into Wednesday due to a more persistent ridge and dry air keeping the front at bay. The Euro ensembles are a bit faster with a Monday into Tuesday frontal passage with a faster ridge departure. Depending on the timing of the front, instability for stronger storms could be possible as the front will coincide with a strengthening jet streak and associated LLJ, in addition to decent frontogenesis in the low to mid levels. Regardless of timing, high temperatures and dewpoints look unlikely early next week as the front will help to reduce any threat of extreme heat or humidity. Furthermore, precipitation chances Monday through Wednesday are trending up along the International Border, though the southward extent of any shower activity as the front sags south, remains uncertain with dry air in place. Notably cooler and drier air looks to follow behind the front into mid to late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Fog in the vicinity of MPV/RUT is expected to lift and dissipate by 13Z. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the daylight hours today with light west southwest winds under 10 knots. Light channeled flow in the St. Lawrence Valley could lead to occasional gusts at MSS to 15 knots. Furthermore, a lake breeze is expected at BTV/PBG late this morning into the afternoon, before flow becomes more terrain and channeled driven. Winds will turn more southerly this evening into tonight. Cloud decks will be 4-8kft agl, and mainly terrain driven, turning more clear than cloudy overnight. With any clearing tonight, some fog may be possible at MPV, but due to a detachment from rain, and some uncertainty with how much clearing there is tonight, have left any visibility reduction trends out of this TAF package. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer DISCUSSION...Danzig/Kremer AVIATION...Danzig  575 FXUS62 KMLB 081055 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 655 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, please visit heat.gov. - A Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today where peak heat index values are forecast to reach up to 109F. - Building dry air will reduce rain chances through the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today-Thursday... Noticeably lower rain chances are forecast mid week as waves of drier air pass through the mid levels. Isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms today (10-30%) trend mostly dry on Thursday. However, there is low confidence in an isolated shower (~20%) near and north of the Orlando metro Thursday where a thin ribbon of deeper moisture may be present. As rain chances are reduced, the greatest forecast emphasis shifts towards a period of increasing heat as high pressure builds over the region. Above normal temperatures will be greatest across interior areas near and north of I-4 each day ranging the mid to upper 90s today, and more widely spreading the upper 90s by Thursday. Across the southern interior, highs mostly range the mid 90s with low to mid 90s spreading the coast. Peak heat index values are forecast to top out around 105-107F across the north today, but higher peak heat index values up to 109F are forecast across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today. Cannot rule out additional Heat Advisories across portions of east central Florida on Thursday. Warm conditions will persist after sunset and into the evenings with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s through midnight. Overnight lows mostly range the mid to upper 70s. Friday-Tuesday... High pressure continues to control the local weather pattern, keeping a period of above normal temperatures through the weekend. Expect only small variations in afternoon highs each day with the hottest conditions persisting across interior regions near and north of I-4 (upper 90s) through at least Saturday. Elsewhere, mid 90s continue with a few areas of low 90s along portions of the immediate coast. The abnormally hot pattern begins to slowly breakdown early next week as a mid to upper level trough digs into the eastern U.S., and highs are nudged closer to normal values by Tuesday. Heat index values exceeding 108F will continue to be monitored with the potential for Heat Advisories across portions of the area into the back half of the week. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Despite surges of locally higher PWATs, model soundings suggest a layer of drier air continuing through the mid levels. This should generally help to suppress rain chances again on Friday, and NBM PoPs have trended down over the last few forecast packages, now showing only a 20-30% PoP in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. By Saturday a weak mid level disturbance lifts across south Florida, weakening as it approaches portions of central Florida. Currently keeping NBM PoPs (30-60%) Saturday with the highest coverage south, but will note high uncertainty as global ensemble members show high spread. A better chance to see scattered showers and storms could be by early next week as the influence of high pressure begins to break down aloft. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An axis of highpressure over the local Atlantic waters will maintain southerly winds and favorable boating conditions. Light south to southwest winds shift south to southeast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Late afternoon and evening winds may increase to 14-18 kts over the open Atlantic (generally north of the Cape). Seas hold mostly 2-3 ft through late week, occasionally building to 4 ft well offshore north of the Cape. Drier air will keep lower rain chances across the local waters the next few days with isolated to scattered showers and storms returning this weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 651 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers and lightning storms. TAFs begin with light and variable winds. Winds will increase from the SW at 5-10kts before backing SE at the coastal TAF sites into the afternoon and evening at 6-12kts. VCTS is forecast at KDAB after 18Z and at the Orlando Metro TAF sites after 20Z before showers and lightning storms diminish by around 01Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 8 July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 98 (1981) 97 (2022) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 98 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (1969) 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 100 (1908) 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 97 (1998) 96 (2023) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 98 (2024) 96 (2024) 97 (2022) 96 (2020) Fort Pierce 97 (2024) 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 77 95 77 / 30 20 20 0 MCO 96 78 97 78 / 20 20 10 0 MLB 92 78 93 78 / 20 10 0 0 VRB 92 77 93 77 / 10 10 0 0 LEE 95 79 96 80 / 20 10 10 0 SFB 96 78 97 78 / 30 30 20 0 ORL 95 79 96 79 / 30 30 20 0 FPR 92 76 92 76 / 10 10 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-164-254-259-264. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Fehling  567 FXUS63 KGRR 081055 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 655 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers and Storms This Evening Through Thursday - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered Showers and Storms This Evening Through Thursday Overall a decent signal for a few rounds of scattered thunderstorms between late this evening and late Thursday, but fairly unimpressive environment and dynamics that will keep details of predictability low (when and where exactly it will storm) low and also cap potential at just a marginal threat of wind/hail. But the confidence is fair via the HREF for three main windows for storms: late evening weakening storms crossing the lake toward areas north and west of Grand Rapids, then some elevated Thu morning thunderstorms in west-central and central Michigan, then more surface-based storms Thu afternoon east of US-131. Also early this afternoon, can't rule out a weakening thunderstorm surviving into Ludington. Much about this setup is on the positive but weak side for supporting storms: the sagging cold front, the upper-level jet dynamics, the moistening low-levels and 850 mb moisture transport, the cooling mid-upper levels that will yield about 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE (perhaps more Thu afternoon), and about 20 knots of deep- layer shear. Despite the midlevelds also expected to be rather moist, the well mixed lower atmosphere both this evening and Thu afternoon should support about 500 J/kg of DCAPE per the HRRR, allowing for a chance for a coalesced cold pool to sweep into West Michigan this evening with 30-40 mph gusts, then isolated near- severe wind gusts in mid/southern Michigan Thu afternoon. - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up PoPs are about 10 percent through the weekend as upper level ridging and surface high pressure is most favored over Lower Michigan. A heat wave is expected to develop this weekend to early next week from the Intermountain West into the Northern Plains, with 500 mb heights potentially reaching 600 dekameters over the Dakotas on Monday per the ECE. This plume of 21-24 C air at 850 mb may advect into Michigan from the west-northwest, making highs in the 90s possible Mon to Tue/Wed. The ECE and CMC are the most aggressive with the heat, and GEFS a little less but still quite warm. Dew points may be in the mid 60s this time, less humid than last week's heat wave. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 655 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Fog has developed at Holland (BIV), and vicinity Muskegon (MKG) and Fremont (FFX) as seen on webcams and nighttime microphysics satellite images. Patchy shallow fog may also be present in a number of other locations. This fog will mix away quickly with daytime heating underway. Expecting few to scattered clouds at or above 5,000 feet today. Thunderstorm development in Wisconsin today will eventually move toward MKG and GRR (and north) after 00 Z. Confidence in the storms reaching MKG and GRR is fairly low but worth a prob30. Those storms may bring a northwest wind shift and briefly gustier winds. Scattered thunderstorms may continue to develop into Thursday morning mainly north of MKG, GRR, and LAN. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds over the water will mostly be from the south-southwest 5 to 15 knots today, though weakening showers or thunderstorms crossing the lake this afternoon and/or evening may cause shifting winds to west/northwest and gusts 20-30 knots or perhaps stronger. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ050-056-057- 064-065-071. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...CAS MARINE...CAS  561 FXUS64 KLZK 081055 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 555 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon but with less coverage than days past. Rain chances decrease even more Thursday and Friday. - Temperatures will remain very warm but at or near seasonal averages. Heat advisories may be needed over the east Thursday and possibly Friday which will be the warmest days of the week. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as several upper level systems move through. Precipitation will not be restricted to just the hottest time of the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 |Not many value added changes to make to the current forecast this morning as guidance has remained consistent with previous thinking. As expected, convection did fire up Tuesday afternoon and quickly dissipated after sunset. Conditions across the FA this morning are generally clear with temperatures currently a few degrees warmer versus previous nights and range from the lower to mid 70s. The upper level feature that largely drove the convection the past few days is now over western Tennessee and slowly moving away. Any convection today will once again be diurnally driven but the CAMS guidance shows more sporadic coverage and a broadbrush 20% should suffice. With less cloud coverage/precipitation chances in the forecast, widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected. Convection coverage will diminish Thursday/Friday as upper level high pressure tries to nose in resulting in the warmest days of the week with highs well in the 90s for everyone. No heat related headlines will be needed today but heat index values over our eastern zones may require a heat advisory Thursday and possibly Friday. Precipitation chances increase this weekend as a messy pattern develops allowing several weak shortwaves to move through the prevailing flow. Moisture remains elevated and precipitation chances will not be restricted to just the afternoon through early evening hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances. Early next week, the upper pattern begins to morph with a strong upper level ridge developing over the 4 corners and into the northern plains. If this does come to fruition, precipitation chances go back down with NE upper flow developing but temperatures will remain quite warm && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible once again this afternoon through early evening. However, the isolated nature of the convection precludes adding them to any specific terminal. Otherwise widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period with the exception of brief MVFR conditions around sunrise. Winds will generally be light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 73 95 77 / 20 0 10 10 Camden AR 92 73 96 75 / 30 10 10 0 Harrison AR 90 73 94 77 / 20 0 20 10 Hot Springs AR 93 74 96 77 / 20 10 10 0 Little Rock AR 93 76 97 78 / 20 10 10 0 Monticello AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 0 Mount Ida AR 91 74 94 77 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 89 72 93 76 / 20 0 30 10 Newport AR 91 74 96 78 / 20 0 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 92 74 96 77 / 30 10 20 0 Russellville AR 94 75 97 78 / 20 10 10 10 Searcy AR 92 73 97 77 / 20 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 92 75 97 78 / 20 10 20 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONGTERM....56 AVIATION...56  632 FXUS62 KILM 081056 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 656 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated with 12Z Tafs Issuance. Have issued an Extreme Heat Warning for eastern parts of the area with a Heat Advisory elsewhere. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)Extreme heat will be in place for the next few days across the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Extreme heat will be in place for the next few days across the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...The synoptic pattern shifts slightly today as the mid level low inches across the Tennessee Valley. The response across the eastern Carolinas will be subtle ridging. This will limit convection somewhat and push the axis of activity to the north. Northern zones of our CWA may see some activity later in the day. Its worth noting the new day one outlook from SPC has jogged the marginal risk a bit further north. The aforementioned events allow surface temperatures to increase slightly and with prolific dewpoints heat indices have eclipsed the 110 threshold in many areas mainly east. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for these areas. A what is seemingly daily Heat Advisory has been issued well inland. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected thruout the majority of the 24 hr TAF Issuance period. Looking at possible MVFR from convection in the vicinity of the sea breeze and also concentrated across inland Southeast NC. Only used 4 to 6 hr PROB30 groups to indicate the time line of this convection. Overall, does not look as widespread as the past few days given the weak dirty mid-level ridging approaching the region. Winds generally WSW-W 5 to 10 kt thru the day except when the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Looking at SSW-SW winds 10-20 kt at the coastal terminals that should last well after sunset this evening. Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sun. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sunday due to a possible CFP. && .MARINE... The Piedmont trough will remain in place through most of the period and be the dominant wind-maker as the Bermuda High is displaced eastward. Winds remain solidly SW save for the seabreeze acceleration. A slight westward jog off the offshore high will increase winds Thursday into Friday and less so Saturday. A brief window of marginal advisory-worthy 6 ft seas cannot be ruled out. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/SHK KEY MESSAGES...SHK DISCUSSION...SHK AVIATION...DCH MARINE...SHK  621 FXUS64 KHUN 081055 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 555 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the lower 90s each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Temperatures across north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee are currently in the lower to mid 70s according to surface observations. Lows may ultimately be few degrees cooler (especially over portions of NE AL and southern middle Tennessee), but not expecting temperatures to cool too much more over the next few hours before sunrise with dew points in the lower 70s. With low dew point depressions, fog remains a concern through early this morning. In fact, the Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows either fog development or low stratus (or a combination) for many areas over NE AL, north-central AL, and into southern middle Tennessee. There have been a couple sites that have reported dense fog over the past hour or two as well, but this is not widespread. Regardless, we will continue to monitor observations in case a Dense Fog Advisory becomes necessary. If you encounter fog while traveling this morning, make sure to use your low beam headlights and keep plenty of space in between you and the vehicle in front of you. Low ceilings and/or visibilities will persist through early this morning but erode through mid- morning. Our focus then shifts to the low to medium (30-50%) chances of showers and storms this afternoon and into this evening. Current thinking and our forecast remains on track for this afternoon (see details below), with highs topping out in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Previous Discussion: A mid/upr closed low centered over the Mid-Miss Valley region will transform into more of an open wave and become increasingly sheared as it moves to the NE on Wednesday. Dynamic lift on its SE flank may once again help to trigger isolated to scattered areas of showers/storms. It is still difficult to forecast which areas may be more favored for convection tomorrow. One might reasonably suspect areas closer to the parent upr low. However, convergent low-level flow evident in streamline analyses (albeit weak) appears favored in southern portions of the area, which is collocated with a more favorable thermodynamic environment. Thus, the argument could be made for slightly higher POPs in southern areas. Apart from these other forcing mechanisms, convection will tend to be the result of differential sfc heating and outflow boundaries. The latest guidance suite suggests perhaps a weaker thermodynamic profile for Wednesday (than Tuesday), although some strong updrafts and thus downdrafts could occur capable of producing strong winds, but the threat for severe weather appears to be very small. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 On Thursday the sheared tendrils of mid/upr vorticity following the parent upr low/wave will cross the area, aiding in the the potential for shower/storm development once again. This would probably be favored in eastern areas per the guidance suite. POPs are thus a little higher there during peak heating in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, mean mid/upr-lvl flow will become more zonal in nature in the TN/OH Valleys amidst an increase in upr westerly flow in the southern branch of a split-flow jet. This will help to enhance shower/storm development to our north with the potential for outflows leading to further convection in our area. This actually goes for both Thursday and Friday. Thermodynamic profiles look downburst"y" both days, with steep low-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture, and high vertical theta-e differences present. Currently, we're just outlooked for "general" thunderstorm activity, which may be owing partly to the coverage expected, however, this may need to be watched over the coming days. Outside of any thick clouds and shower/storm presence, conditions will continue to feel summer-like with heat indices still pushing 100 degrees both days. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures will be near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much of a threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration. Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may also result in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Low stratus in addition to fog has formed overnight and some of the fog has become dense in a few locations. For the terminals, this has led to mainly MVFR conditions at MSL, but varying VIS at HSV. Therefore, have included temporary low VIS and CIGs at both TAF sites through 14Z (but VIS down to 1/4SM at times for HSV). We will continue to monitor this over the next few hours, but any fog and/or stratus should erode through mid-morning. Then, the main concern for the day will be showers and storms this afternoon. There remains uncertainty in exactly where and when storms will develop and track; however, these bring the potential for temporary reductions in VIS and CIGs as well as gusty winds and frequent lightning where they do develop. Showers and storms are then slated to diminish this evening. Outside of storms, expect calm winds at night with westerly winds around 5 knots or so during the day. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...26