876 FXUS62 KTBW 081100 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 700 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are forecast for at least the rest of the week, with afternoon heat index values of over 100 expected to be near Heat Advisory levels in some spots each day. - Drier air moving into the area will limit rain chances today through Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 654 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Best rain chances today will be near Tampa Bay midday followed by higher storm chances for KLAL. Coverage is not expected to be all that high, but enough for a PROB30 group for just KLAL. Low rain chances continue for tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Weak mid-level ridging will hold over Florida through the rest of the week. At the surface, the ridge axis extending from the Atlantic across southern Florida today will gradually lift north through the rest of the week, resulting in mainly westerly flow today becoming more southeasterly and easterly by late this week and into the weekend. This ridging at the surface and aloft will result in warm temperatures, with heat index values approaching heat advisory criteria in a few places each afternoon through the rest of the week. While afternoon thunderstorms typically provide some relief from the heat, rain chances through the rest of the week will unfortunately be lower than normal as a Saharan air layer pushes west into the state, bringing in drier conditions aloft. For today, a few showers could shift onshore and develop along the west coast in the morning, then isolated to scattered showers and storms will shift inland through the afternoon. The driest air is expected to be overhead on Thursday, with no mentions of rain in the forecast across the entire area. Moisture will start to return on Friday, with scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast for areas south of the Tampa Bay, but mainly rain free conditions expected to hold over the Nature Coast. Moisture will continue to return through the weekend before a weak cold front stalls out over northern Florida early next week, resulting in higher rain totals for Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure ridging from the Atlantic into the southern coastal waters today will setup light and generally westerly flow, with drier air keeping rain chances low through the rest of the week. The ridge will lift north late in the week, allowing winds to turn to southeasterly and then easterly, but wind speeds will generally remain less than headline criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Slightly drier air will filter into the area through the rest of the week, limiting rain chances. However, critically low relative humidity is not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 81 95 82 / 20 10 10 0 FMY 96 78 97 78 / 20 20 10 10 GIF 96 77 97 77 / 30 20 10 0 SRQ 92 80 95 80 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 95 76 97 76 / 20 10 10 0 SPG 94 81 95 82 / 20 10 10 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Aviation...Carlisle Previous...Fleming  864 FXUS63 KLSX 081100 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 600 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm temperatures continue today, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly south and east of St. Louis. - More widespread thunderstorms are expected Thursday through Saturday. Some storms could be severe Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An upper level low near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois today. The low will drift northeast and weaken, eventually opening into a more progressive wave this evening. This will bring the chance for convection associated with this system to an end for our area. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday, except over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois due to more extensive cloud cover and scattered convection associated with the upper low. The next upstream short wave is already producing convection over the northeastern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. The wave will dig farther into the Midwest today, and then the next behind it will move into the Midwest late tonight, further amplifying the upper flow. Guidance shows another round of convection over eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that moves into northwest Missouri this evening. The convection will continue moving east overnight, and could reach central and northeast Missouri before 12Z Thursday morning, although it should be weak by that time and coverage may be limited. Carney && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Latest guidance suggests tonight's convection will generate an MCV which will track across the area on Thursday. Additionally, the composite outflow/surface front will drift across northern Missouri into central Illinois during the afternoon and provide a focus for convective development. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s along with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s and steepening lapserates are forecast to produce very unstable conditions with CAPE in excess of 2000 J/Kg. Guidance also shows increasing deep- layer shear up to around 35kts which would support organized convection. Think the most likely scenario is that thunderstorms develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV/composite cold front over central or northeast Missouri and get organized into a broken line which moves quickly east-southeast. Damaging winds are the most likely threat, though some large hail is also possible given the CAPE profiles in model soundings. Think the severe thunderstorm threat should end during the evening as instability wanes. However, the low level boundary looks like it will remain draped over our area, most likely across the Ozarks, but this is uncertain. Models show a west-southwest low level jet developing during the evening which rides over the boundary producing moderate to strong moisture convergence. Convection is therefore likely to redevelop in the vicinity of the boundary and possibly train along it which would pose a heavy rain threat. Friday's weather continues to depend heavily on convective trends Thursday night. However, current thinking is the boundary will remain over our area, possibly drifting northward through the day as southerly flow increases ahead of another wave. The GFS develops 2000+ J/Kg of CAPE during the afternoon coincident with 30+ kts of shear which will produce another round of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening which could be severe.The long wave upper level ridge over the western U.S. begins strengthening and building east Friday night into Saturday. This will eventually push warmer air aloft into the Mid Mississippi Valley and finally cap the low levels. Additionally, the downstream long wave over the eastern U.S. will drag a drier airmass into the Great Lakes and Midwest. This will turn the low level flow over our area to the northeast and finally the surface boundary south. However, it's unclear how quickly this will happen. Guidance PoPs have increased Saturday and Sunday as the models build the ridge eastward more slowly in the latest runs. Additionally the LREF cluster analysis is showing variance in the position and amplitude of the ridge as it strengthens this weekend. This lends a great deal of uncertainty to the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, particularly across the Ozarks where the boundary would likely linger for the longest time. While PoPs now linger into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday continue to look warm and dry under the influence of the upper level ridge. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday morning. Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening, generally south and east of St. Louis in proximity to an upper level disturbance. The strongest storms may produce gusty winds and MVFR/IFR flight conditions in brief heavy rain. Additionally, there is a slight chance that thunderstorms which develop over the Great Plains this evening may reach parts of central and northeast Missouri between 10-12Z Thursday morning. However, confidence is too low at this point to mention in central Missouri terminal forecasts. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  887 FXUS63 KPAH 081100 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 600 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily chances for showers and storms (ranging from 30-80%) are forecast through the weekend, peaking Thursday night through Saturday. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to an increased flash flooding threat Thursday evening through Saturday. - While we can't rule out a strong storm today, severe chances are quite low (less than 5%). Probabilities for severe storms have increased for Thursday, now up to 15%, focused anytime from late afternoon through the overnight. The pattern may favor additional chances (5-15%) for severe storms on Friday and possibly Saturday. - High temperatures remain slightly below normal in the mid to upper 80s today. Warmer temperatures (low 90s) return Thursday and possibly Friday which may produce heat index values above 100. Temperatures will cool down again for the weekend, into the mid to upper 80s. It appears increasingly likely we will exceed 90 again by Tuesday of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper level trough that has resided over our area for days will linger for one more day before pushing east of our area on Thursday. Thus today should be similar to the past couple of days with scattered showers and storms. Very limited flow to work with though so severe threat will remain quite low, just your typical summer time storms with gusty winds and very heavy downpours. The slow moving nature of the storms may lead to some localized flooding instances again. Right on the heels of the upper trough departing will be a series of disturbances sweeping across from the Plains into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to increased flow aloft, particularly 850-700mb, which will yield deep layer shear pushing 25-35 kts by late Thursday afternoon through Friday. Bit less confidence on Saturday, but at least some enhancement of the flow (20-25 kts) may remain in place. At the same time, southwest flow at the surface will increase ushering in a warmer airmass as temperatures push the low 90s again coupled with mid 70s dewpoints on Thursday. This will lead to heat index values ranging from 98 to 103 and push MLCAPE values over 2500j/kg. While convective evolution varies amongst model guidance, the environment in place will support an increased threat for organized storms as early as late Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight. The new day 2 outlook from SPC has increased to a slight risk across the northern half of the region which certainly seems justified. Damaging winds appear to be the greatest concern, with DCAPE values pushing over 1200j/kg on soundings. Additional rounds of severe storms are certainly possible Friday and maybe lingering into Saturday, with ML probabilities continuing to suggest 5-15% severe probs for those days. Guidance is trending wetter for late week, with repeated rounds of heavy rain leading to an increasing flash flooding threat. Won't be surprised if we end up needing another Flood Watch issued for the Thursday evening through Saturday period. Precipitable water values will consistently be at or above 2" during this period. While the LREF grand ensemble maintains fairly low probabilities (15-30%) for receiving over 2" through Sunday morning, several of the CAMs and even the GFS are depicting swaths of 2-4" and perhaps localized higher. WPC has us outlooked in a slight risk ERO for Thursday through Saturday. A strong upper level ridge will build across the Midwest/Plains early to mid next week, which will finally help dry us out with several completely dry days expected. While there is an increased chance for reaching 90 again by next Tuesday (50-70% via the LREF), the brunt of this heatwave may end up staying centered to our west. So for now, it doesn't look as brutally hot as last week was for our region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another round of scattered convection will develop today, primarily focused from midday through early evening. Outside of convection, light winds are expected. Cigs will primarily be VFR with bases ranging from 4-10kft range. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SP DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...SP  030 FXUS61 KAKQ 081102 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 702 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Marginal severe risk (level 1 out of 5) continues for Thursday and a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been added for Thursday as well. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. 2) Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. 3) Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. An upper level trough is located in vicinity of the New England coast early this morning. Meanwhile, a shortwave feature is tracking across the Mid-Atlantic coast on the southern periphery of the upper trough. At the surface, a stationary to slow moving cold front lingers over southern VA and coastal NE NC. An area of low-level streamline convergence is located in vicinity of the Northern Neck, and this is coincident with an axis of PW values of 2.3-2.4" and modest surface based instability. An area of slow moving to nearly stationary heavy rain and embedded tstms has lingered over the Northern Neck and there have been some reports of flooding early this morning. The latest trends from the HRRR depict that this area of streamline convergence lingers in vicinity of the western shore of the Ches. Bay through the morning. Therefore, some localized flooding from excessive rainfall will be possible, but also highly localized, and could creep into Hampton Roads. Otherwise, the best chances of showers and aftn tstms gradually shifts to the SW today as the cold front moves through the region. Coverage of showers/tstms will be less today compared to the prior two days. Hence the flash flood threat will be more limited and localized this afternoon. A few stronger tstm cores are possible, and this could produce some localized damaging wind gusts across interior southern VA and NE NC. Not as hot today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s/around 80F at the coast, to the mid 80s inland. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. The mid/upper level flow becomes more progressive Thursday and Friday. The 500mb flow increases to 30-35kt Thursday afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave trough, with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave trough. With strengthening mid level flow and strong surface heating strong to locally severe tstms are possible each afternoon. The question on Friday is coverage given more drier downslope flow. Additionally, the 00z/08 HREF has a decent signal for heavy rain from NE of the RIC metro to the lower MD Eastern Shore (and points N). High temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. Dewpoints should drop enough each afternoon to keep heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, but readings up to ~105F are possible in NE NC (especially along the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound). KEY MESSAGE 3...Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Chances of afternoon/evening showers/tstms continues Saturday as a cold front slowly sags through the region. Otherwise, trending drier Sunday into early next week as high pressure returns in the wake of the cold front. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday, before a warming trend commences Tuesday into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Wednesday... A weak cold front was slowly pushing S across southern VA as of 11z. IFR/LIFR conditions prevailed at ORF, PHF, and ECG, with MVFR at RIC and VFR at SBY. Brief IFR cigs are possible at RIC through 14-15z, with occasional MVFR cigs at SBY. IFR/LIFR cigs at PHF and ORF should gradually lift to MVFR by 14-15z and 15-16z at ECG. Scattered showers in vicinity of PHF and ORF have the potential to produce brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain through ~15z. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers linger through this morning, with a few tstms possible by early aftn. However, the best chances move W of a line from RIC to ECG by later in the aftn. The wind will generally be E/ENE 5-10kt through the day, before shifting to ESE later in the aftn and evening. Additional IFR/MVFR stratus potentially develops late tonight into Thursday morning. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms return Thursday, with the probability 20% or less by Friday (better chances N/NW of an RIC-SBY line), then 40-60% by Saturday, and less than 30% Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected this week. NE 10-15 kt winds are expected through most of today. - The risk of thunderstorms is lower today but increases again Thursday and Friday. Generally benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this morning are E-NE 10-15 kt on the north side of a slow moving backdoor cold front. Similar winds continue through today, diminishing slightly and turning to the S-SE this evening into tonight as the front lifts back N. Seas will generally be around 3 ft during this time and around 4 ft 20+ nm offshore. S-SW sub-SCA flow is expected Thursday and Friday with 2-3 ft seas. Another front is forecast to cross the waters Saturday. Winds swing around to the N/NW Saturday and then NE Sunday. While daily chances for storms are anticipated through the week, the chance today is comparatively lower than the past few days. Still, showers this morning could pose an isolated waterspout threat in the western Chesapeake Bay. Chances for more widespread storms, some strong to severe, increase Thursday and Friday. SMWs will be issued as necessary. A moderate rip current risk is forecast today due to nearshore 3 ft waves and choppy surf. A low risk returns for the rest of the week. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed today for some additional calibration. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HET AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SW EQUIPMENT...  079 FXUS63 KGID 081103 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 603 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected this evening into tonight (mainly 7pm to midnight). Wind and hail are the primary threats. - Another round of thunderstorms is expected Thursday evening. A few strong to marginally severe storms remain possible, although coverage looks more spotty. - The main severe threat shifts south of the area for Friday, although a few isolated t-storms remain possible. - Dry and increasingly warm conditions return for the weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently, showers and weak thunderstorms stretch from northwest Kansas up through the Sandhills and are gradually moving eastward. These should continue to weaken early this morning, but a few light showers/sprinkles cannot be ruled out. This may linger through midday as well, although little to no impacts are expected. This afternoon, temperatures climb into the 90s for most of the area as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Isolated storms are expected to develop near this front this evening, with additional storms moving out of western KS/NE. Initially, storms may pose a threat for severe hail, transitioning to a wind threat as storms merge into one or more lines/clusters (probably favoring the southern half of the area). Output from CAMs does not suggest "high-end" winds, but gusts near 60 MPH seem likely on at least a scattered basis. Thursday trends cooler as the cold front moves through. As such, the primary t-storm threat shifts further south and west. Nevertheless, there is still a low chance for a few strong to marginally severe storms as storms arrive from the west later Thursday evening. Thunderstorm chances continue Friday, although coverage should be more spotty, and the main severe threat appears to be to our south near a stalled frontal boundary. Upper level ridging will then promote a mostly dry and warming trend through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Summer Heat... Hot weather with highs in the 90s will persist into Wednesday afternoon. A cold front sinking south Wednesday evening will bring thunderstorms to the area (Wednesday evening/night) and cooler weather for Thursday through Saturday (highs mainly in the 80s). A strong and unusually anomalous upper level ridge (600 decameters at 500 mb) is projected to initially build over the Rocky Mountains this weekend and slide east into the plains early next week. This will result in hot and dry conditions even by July standards. Our projected highs early next week in the lower to mid 90s may be too cool and would not be surprised to see upper 90s and even some 100 degree temperatures if this upper ridge patter fully materializes. Wednesday and Thursday Severe Thunderstorm Threat... We have two remaining decent chances to get moisture before the upper ridge builds in and precipitation is likely to shut off for awhile. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Nebraska counties will be Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Kansas counties will be Thursday night. Unfortunately this rain may come in the form of severe weather for some areas with the main threat being the wind gusts, but also at least a marginal hail threat as well. There are currently two main areas to watch Wednesday afternoon/evening. The first area will be along the cold front with afternoon heating mainly across our northern and northeastern areas where storms may initially develop, will probably be more isolated, but will be slower moving and capable of dumping heavier 1" plusrainfall amounts. There is lower confidence in this initial thunderstorm development. However, there is higher confidence that a more widespread line of thunderstorms will develop west of our forecast area later Wednesday evening associated with the upper level shortwave and then track east across much of our area Wednesday night. This later precipitation will bring mainly a severe wind threat to our area with some of these thunderstorms, rain amounts generally less than 1" but more widespread. The Thursday night rain chances are pretty high in the NBM (50-70%), but storms may end up being further south. Best chances for storms Thursday night will be south of I-80 and even higher across north central Kansas. The severe threat Thursday night should be more marginal than on Wednesday evening. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 553 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: South to southwest winds are expected today with scattered mid to high clouds. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move through the GRI/EAR area between 00-06Z. There is a low chance for stratus behind the thunderstorms Thursday morning, although confidence in this occurring is too low to warrant anything more than a SCT020 for now. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Mangels  211 FXUS61 KCTP 081106 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 706 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slightly lower PoPs Thursday for areas north of I-80. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Relative minimum in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. 2) Rain chances increase for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Relative minimum in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Areas of fog and low clouds have developed and will gradually dissipate after sunrise. A few slow moving showers are ongoing along a boundary that cuts across southwestern portions of the forecast area. Radar estimates show that a few localized areas in Bedford and Fulton Counties have seen rain totals as high as 2 inches since midnight, but rainfall rates have been low enough to prevent any worries about flash flooding. These showers should continue through the rest of the night, before dissipating through the morning. Upper level flow becomes more zonal today and weak high pressure at the surface sets up over the eastern half of Pennsylvania. As a result, expect skies to become partly cloudy for the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Model soundings show a relatively strong capping inversion over most of central PA this afternoon, which should limit the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. That being said, we may still see isolated to scattered showers and storms develop on the higher terrain of the Alleghenies. Any storms that do develop will be capable of producing heavy downpours, but the flash flood threat appears to be low. KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances increase for the end of the week. An upper level trough will set up over the northeastern US for the end of the week. A few weak disturbances moving through the trough will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop on Thursday, particularly over the southern half of the area. There is still some uncertainty regarding storm coverage, but any storms that do develop will be very efficient rain producers Most guidance shows precipitable water values climbing to near 2 inches along and south of the turnpike, tall, skinny CAPE profiles, and a sufficiently deep warm cloud layer in excess of 11,000 feet. This may support a flash flood threat over southern PA. Though shear is expected to be weak, there is some potential for storms to slowly organize as they move eastward through the afternoon. SPC has added a marginal risk for severe weather that covers the Lower Susquehanna Valley with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. A stronger shortwave will move through on Friday leading to additional thunderstorm development ahead of a cold front. Instability looks to be limited, but storms will still have a very moist environment to work with so heavy rainfall will be possible. Uncertainty begins to increase as we head into the weekend. Rain chances for Saturday will depend on how quickly the cold front from Friday drops south of the area. We could see scattered showers and storms if the front lingers over southern PA, but we would be mainly dry if it is quicker to slide off to the south. Sunday is looking like a mainly dry day as most guidance has the boundary well to our south. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Moist low level conditions continue to promote low clouds and visibility restrictions across many airfields this morning. High pressure building in will allow for improvement of conditions as the morning progresses. VFR should prevail by the afternoon as the subsidence and increasing sunshine scatter out the clouds which will be most prevalent in the east.Winds will shift from out of the east to out of the south region wide by the early afternoon. These winds will remain light though in the 5-10mph range at most without much gustiness. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in the west, particularly in the southwest corner of our area, this afternoon. However, confidence is low (<30%) that any that form will directly impact BFD, JST or AOO for any long period of time. Any shower or t-storm that forms though carries the potential for heavy rainfall. Early signal is pointing towards visibility restrictions across the airfields late tonight (likely after 06Z) with IFR visibility confidence increasing further west. Timing and restriction amounts may be dictated by how widespread precipitation is in the afternoon. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Mainly dry early. Numerous to many SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon. Intermittent impacts likely. Sat-Sun...Chance of showers and a few storms but lower chances than Thu/Fri. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Bauco DISCUSSION...Bauco AVIATION...Lambrech  253 FXUS63 KILX 081107 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 607 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms today: Isolated afternoon thunderstorms (20% to 30% chance) may develop south of Interstate 72 today, ending quickly after sunset. - Heavy rain and flash flood risk Thursday through Saturday: A stalled front brings a 60% to 70% chance of rain and storms to central and southern Illinois. Slow- moving storms could trigger localized flash flooding, with a 30% chance of rainfall exceeding 2 inches south of Interstate 72. - Extreme heat or active storms next week: High uncertainty exists for mid-July. A shifting high-pressure system could bring either dangerous heat and humidity or periodic storm complexes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .Today through Tonight... The dominant feature this morning remains a pesky, cut-off upper-level low spinning near the lower Ohio River Valley. As a downstream ridge axis shifts eastward, slight low-level warming will take place with 850 mb temperatures nudging upward. This will translate to afternoon highs climbing into the upper 80s to near 90F. Diurnal heating combined with residual low-level moisture will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms (20-30% chance), primarily gridded south of the Interstate 72 corridor closer to the departing low's periphery. Any activity should quickly diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. .Thursday through Saturday Night... A notable shift in the synoptic pattern is anticipated by Thursday as strong shortwave energy digs into the upper Midwest. This will guide a weakening mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) and push a surface cold front into central Illinois by Thursday afternoon, ultimately breaking down the persistent ridge. However, since the main upper-level dynamics are forecast to outpace the surface front, the boundary will likely align parallel to the mid-level flow. Consequently, the front is expected to shear out and stall over central or southern Illinois from Friday into Saturday. This stalled boundary will serve as the primary focal point for unsettled weather to close out the week, yielding high probabilities (60-70%) for rain. Ahead of the front, a moderately to strongly unstable environment will materialize, with MUCAPE values climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep- layer vertical wind shear is progged to peak near a modest 30 knots Thursday afternoon before weakening into Friday. While the enhanced shear profiles on Thursday could support localized, pulse-like downbursts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, the primary operational concern is shifting toward flash flooding driven by highly efficient warm-cloud processes. Precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast to surge above 2.0 inches, which sits well above the 90th percentile for July climatology. Consequently, training and back-building convective cells producing torrential rainfall rates will be the main hazard to monitor, especially late Thursday night into Friday when Corfidi upshear vectors dramatically lower in magnitude, signaling slow-moving or anchoring storm structures. And yet, model guidance continues to exhibit notable variance regarding the exact spatial placement of this boundary. Solution A (GEFS/GEPS) keeps the surface boundary and multiple waves of heavy rain further north squarely across our CWA, which would maximize the local flash flood risk. Solution B (ECMWF/EPS) has been steadfast in pushing the surface boundary considerably further south by Friday and Saturday, which would keep much of our CWA dry to finish the week. Blended (NBM) and ensemble (LREF) guidance lean toward a prolific, potentially multi-day rainfall event, showing about a 30% chance of exceeding 2 inches of rainfall through Sunday morning, primarily for areas south of I-72. Given the model divergence, we will continue to message this as a low- probability, but potentially high-impact rainfall event. .Sunday through Wednesday... Once the stalled front finally dissipates or shunts south late in the weekend, long-range guidance exhibits excellent agreement regarding the rapid expansion of a high-amplitude subtropical ridge over the central United States. Medium-range ensembles (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) consistently project an anomalous upper-level high centering over the Central Plains during the July 13-16 timeframe. Sensible weather across central Illinois during this extended period will depend heavily on the exact longitudinal positioning of this ridge core. A more western ridge orientation would place the local area under active, northwest flow aloft. This pattern would open the door for periodic, ridge-riding Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) that would temper afternoon temperatures via persistent cloud cover and convective debris. Conversely, if the ridge core migrates further eastward directly into the Corn Belt, a spell of dangerous, excessive heat and humidity could rapidly develop by mid-July. Given the typical model variance at day 6 and day 7, trends will be monitored closely over the coming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure over the region is resulting in light and variable or calm winds this morning along with mostly clear skies. Confidence in fog this morning has lowered thus have pulled mention from the TAF. Diurnal cumulus will develop as we head into the late morning and early afternoon hours, and is expected to be between 030 and 040. Couldn't rule out a brief window of MVFR ceilings as a result, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  248 FXUS64 KMAF 081107 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 607 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Low chance (~10%) of isolated storms this afternoon over the Big Bend and southeast New Mexico plains. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mid to upper ridging persists and amplifies today into tomorrow over the Desert SW into Intermountain West, resulting in a warming trend in temperatures as increased sinking and warming motion occurs. With the mid to upper air pattern shifting and core of ridging forecast to be farther west than previously forecast, there will be room for terrain induced disturbances riding easterly flow aloft south of the ridge to focus lift and moisture convergence over northern and southern parts of the area. As a result, PoPs will be low (less than 10%) but not zero over the SE NM plains and Big Bend, where we cannot rule out a stray shower/storm today or tomorrow. However, with PWATs remaining close to 1.00", dew point depressions remaining greater than 20F, and light south/southeast winds overlain by light east/northeast winds, rainfall accumulations are likely to remain light and the main risk remaining lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and strong winds in any stronger storms. Highs today rise into the 95F-100F range even for much of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend and remain in the 85F-90F range for higher elevations. Lows tonight fall into the 70F-75F range southern and eastern parts of the region, 65F- 70F in cooler regions, and 60F-65F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos. Tomorrow offers similar to today in terms of temperatures. However, highs rise a few degrees warmer into the triple digits along the Pecos River, on the Upper Trans Pecos, northeast Permian Basin, and along the Presidio Valley into Big Bend, and 95F-100F highs elsewhere apart from highs into the 90F-95F range higher elevations. Tomorrow night, lows similar to today but warmer can be expected. South/southeast winds prevail through the period with dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s F, mid 40s to lower 50s F basins of Culberson County into northern Guadalupes, maintaining a dry but stagnant feel to the air despite the warming trend. Increased rain chances at the end of the week into the weekend are still in the forecast. More details on this in the Long Term Discussion below. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package as warm and mainly dry conditions are expected through Saturday. This is thanks to an elongated upper ridge of high pressure over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. High temperatures are forecast to generally range from the mid 90s to lower 100s Friday afternoon. Warmer temperatures between 105 to 110 degrees are expected for areas along the Rio Grande and Pecos River. These high temperatures will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses for those outdoors for prolonged periods. Be sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and necessary precautions if outdoors! By Friday night, the ridge weakens and transitions northward into the Central Rockies. As a result, this will cool high temperatures a couple of degrees on Saturday compared to Friday. Besides the heat, surface troughing across the southern Rockies, upslope flow, and disturbances within the flow aloft creates a low chance (10-30%) of isolated storms over the Guadalupe, Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico plains, and portions offar West Texas both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Sunday, the aforementioned ridge of high pressure shifts farther northeast toward the Northern High Plains. Shortwave impulses rounding the periphery of the ridge brings upper-level moisture and ascent, thus increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms areawide Sunday through early next week. Northeasterly flow aloft and southeasterly surface winds increase cloud cover, keeping afternoon highs cooler in the low to mid 90s for most locations Sunday through Tuesday. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions with south/southeast winds at terminals through the period. Winds forecast to gust up to 15 to 20 knots ore more beginning 15Z-19Z through 20Z-22Z and continuing until 00Z-02Z before decreasing back below 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 97 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 71 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 96 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 90 67 93 69 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 96 69 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 90 60 93 62 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 95 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 98 72 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...94  194 FXUS66 KMFR 081106 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 406 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...08/12Z TAFs...Marine stratus will maintain IFR/LIFR conditions along the coast from Cape Blanco northward and Gold Beach southward through most of the morning. Some some gradual improvement to a scattered layer is expected again later this morning, but will return to similar areas after 03z this evening. Farther inland, the marine stratus could bring some MVFR ceilings into portions of the Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg, around sunrise, but will quickly burn off by late morning. All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period with the typical increase in afternoon breezes this afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026/ KEY POINTS... * Typical summer weather for the remainder of the week: seasonable temperatures and humidities, gusty afternoon winds. * Pattern amplifies Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-30 mph) Friday- Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring heightened fire weather concerns (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * Thunderstorm pattern early next week. Best chances east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. DISCUSSION...Another quiet summer morning underway today. The marine layer blankets the coast from Gold Beach southward as well as the Coquille Basin and Coastal Ranges. Skies are clear everywhere else. The marine layer will continue nudging inland this morning, possibly making it to Roseburg around sunrise, but morning clouds will give way to sunshine by the afternoon hours. Westerly flow will prevail today into Thursday under a mostly zonal flow pattern with flat high pressure to the south and a broad trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more stable air mass with thunderstorm potential remaining well east of the area. There will likely be some cumulus buildups today east of the Cascades and across northern California, and a stray shower (5% chance) can't be ruled out. A dry front will pass through the region today. This will bring another day of enhanced afternoon breezes as well as a general cooling trend in afternoon temperatures today that will persist into the weekend. Instead of temperatures being 8 to 10 degrees above normal like recent days, high temperatures through the weekend will hover within a few degrees of normal, equating to low 90s West/upper 80s East. With this general cool down, we'll see an uptick in afternoon humidities, so despite the enhanced afternoon winds, fire weather concerns will be somewhat mitigated by the slightly cooler temperatures. The pattern transitions on Friday with high pressure to the south moving eastward into the Great Basin region, then amplifying on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward Friday into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly again and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tighter gradients. This pattern will bring a round of strong, gusty winds to the region Friday and Saturday when gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 30 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions could be possible east of the Cascades Friday and Saturday, most widespread on Saturday. Low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, and this will ease winds some compared to Saturday, but conditions will still be quite breezy. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough. Daytime humidities will trend slightly upward and the flow will turn more southerly heading into the early part of next week. This pattern will bear watching for thunderstorm potential as south to southwesterly flow could push some monsoonal moisture into the region. While this is still 5 to 7 days out and plenty of time for details to change between now and then, it currently looks like we'll skate by on Sunday without any convective activity. Monday through Wednesday, however, there could be enough moisture and instability in the region for thunderstorm activity. Given that the region is on the western periphery of that strong high pressure, it currently looks like the best chances would be across eastern areas, though it's worth noting that current guidance shows enough moisture across the West Side for thunderstorm development potentially on Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates as models hone in on additional details. MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Wednesday, July 8, 2026...Moderate north winds continue south of Cape Blanco, which will maintain steep seas through this morning. The thermal trough strengthens later this morning, resulting in increasing north winds and very steep seas developing south of Gold Beach. Small Craft Advisory winds and seas will spread north to Cape Arago. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but could strengthen again late weekend with gusty north winds and steep seas. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  321 FXUS62 KCHS 081108 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 708 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions for the majority of the week. - 2) Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions for the majority of the week. The center of a H5 595 dam ridge will remain over middle FL this afternoon, with a ridge extending northward across the Southeast U.S. today. The ridging will provide the region with very warm llvl thicknesses. An area of broad low pressure is forecast to remain over the central Carolinas this afternoon, supporting SW winds across SE GA and SC. Due to the SW winds, the sea breeze may begin an hour or two later this afternoon compared to earlier this week. Given the warm llvl thicknesses, slower sea breeze, and decent insolation, high temperatures in the upper 90s will be common this afternoon, some locations may peak at 100 degrees. However, 90th percentile guidance indicates that KCHS will likely continue the 2nd longest streak of consecutive days with temperatures <100 degrees on record, 2595 days. The record number of days in 5784 which ended 6/18/1970. The hot temperatures combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s should yield heat index values greater than 108 degrees for most of the forecast area. Coastal counties of SC/GA are forecast to see heat index values to peak between 110 to 115 degrees. The dangerous heat index values will be highlighted with an Extreme Heat Warning, elsewhere a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM. Late afternoon thunderstorms may provide some pockets of relief from the heat. The heat wave is expected to continue through the end of the week with heat indices likely around the 105 to 110 range and highs in the mid to upper 90s area wide. Heat products look to continue at least through Thursday and possibly into Friday with the highest probability of reaching advisory criteria mainly east of I-95 and closer to the coast including the Charleston and Savannah metro areas. While heat indices may not be as high as this afternoon, the bigger issue will be long duration heat stress mainly along the coastal areas where heat indices might not drop to below 100 degrees until well into the evening and overnight hours with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Several days of intense heat and minimal cooling overnight has been reflected in the HeatRisk product with widespread Major (level 3 of 4) and a corridor of Extreme (level 4 of 4) along the immediate coast Thursday and Friday. Regardless of any heat products this will continue to bring a risk of heat-related impacts, especially to those more vulnerable to heat or those without adequate cooling/hydration. KEY MESSAGE 2: Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. Hot and humid conditions should yield moderate instability across the coastal counties once the sea breeze develops and pushes inland this afternoon into early this evening. Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS indicated very little thunderstorm coverage this afternoon, due to dewpoint mixing well into the 60s west of the sea breeze. However, HREF does indicate isolated to scattered thunderstorms near the sea breeze this afternoon. The forecast will feature SCHC to CHC PoPs across the coastal counties during the late afternoon and evening. This pattern is expected to continue for Thursday through Saturday, with isolated coverage on Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will likely increase Sunday into Monday as a more potent shortwave trough movesacross the mid-atlantic. Expect storm coverage to increase Sunday afternoon compared to the normal summertime pattern. Storms will likely be focused along a sagging front that will slowly drift south with time. Given the increased coverage and maybe a little more deep layer flow, a couple strong to severe storms with damaging winds may be possible on Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z TAFs: Terminals will remain VFR with light southwest winds this morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the sea breeze this afternoon, expected to develop near or over the terminals between 20-24Z, highlighted with PROB30. In the wake of the sea breeze, winds will shift from the south-southwest with gusts near 20 kts, especially at KJZI. Convection and wind gusts should dissipated early this evening. Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be a risk for tstm impacts at the terminals each afternoon/evening, especially at KCHS and KSAV. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: The pressure pattern should support south- southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts, with occasional gusts into the low 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to favor 3 to 4 ft. Thursday and Friday: Surges in the wake of the sea breeze may result in southwest winds to increase each afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday. Wind gusts may peak around 25 kts, possibly requiring Small Craft Advisories. The short duration of the elevated winds should keep wave heights between 3 to 4 ft. This weekend into Monday: The pressure pattern should support south- southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts, with occasional gusts into the low 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to favor 3 to 4 ft. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 8: KCHS: 100/2016 KSAV: 101/2010 July 9: KCXM: 99/1986 July 10: KCHS: 100/1986 KCXM: 99/1986 KSAV: 102/1879 July 11: KCXM: 100/2001 July 12: KCXM: 97/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 8: KCXM: 83/2016 KSAV: 80/1990 July 9: KCHS: 80/1998 KCXM: 85/1998 KSAV: 80/1883 July 10: KCHS: 81/1986 KCXM: 82/1986 July 11: KCHS: 80/2016 KCXM: 82/2016 July 12: KCHS: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101-114-115-137-216-238-240. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217>219-239-241. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ043-044-147. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ045-148>152. MARINE...None. && $$ NED  277 FXUS63 KUNR 081108 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 508 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active through Thursday as a series of disturbances move through the region. - A few severe thunderstorms again possible this afternoon and evening, especially over northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and southwest South Dakota. - Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temperatures possible and dangerous heat. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1052 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Massaged PoPs and QPF this evening through the overnight and Wednesday to better match radar trends and the new 00z suite of CAMs. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms should weaken a bit overnight and trend east, ending/exiting the region by sunrise. A break follows before our next round of convection develops around 1-2pm Wednesday afternoon across northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and southwest South Dakota. While a couple storms may spill just east of these areas, this region should see most of the activity and the best chance for a few strong to severe storms. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms in this corridor. Shear around 35kts and decent instability should support pulsing single cells and transient supercell structures with lightning, wind gusts of 50 to 65 MPH, and dime to golf ball size hail. Storms may tend to cluster a bit in the evening, and largely end by 11 PM. Significant heat along with possible critical fire weather conditions still expected to start Saturday and continue into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Monday) Issued at 1025 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Impulse filled westerly flow will be in place over the region through Thursday as a frontal boundary remains in place. Near daily chances for thunderstorms can be expected with severe storms possible at times, best chances today. Sfc front stalled across the FA today. The front has settled further south that previous model runs indicated yesterday, with a southward shift of the best severe potential. Moderately strong impulse will kick out of WY/MT in the the afternoon and evening and will drive CI there. Storms may also fire along the Pine Ridge and INVOF of the front if capping can be overcome. Another location for CI will be northern BH if the inhibition is also overcome. Given progged ML CAPE of 1-2.5 KJ/KG, deep bulk layer shear of 35 to 45 knots (highest north of the sfc front), expect supercells to be possible with strong rotating updrafts, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Best chances for rotating storms will be along and north of the sfc front. Still a very small window for tornadoes with any storms near the sfc front, which will start shifting SW into SW SD this afternoon. Storms will carry across the region through the evening and overnight, possibly lingering into the morning Wed as elevated activity. More storms are possible Wed and Thur as sufficient LL moisture will be in place with weak stability and additional impulses. The best chances for storms will be across the western third Wed with chances expanding to the entire FA Thur. Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend, with dry and hot conds expected. Impressive temps of 35 to almost 40C at h85 with close to 6000 H5 heights over WY, will offer record to near record highs well into the 100s with 110 to 115 possible on portions of the Plains, esp Sunday and Monday. Ridge begins to breaks down across the Northern Plains the middle of next week, with storm chances returning as the active northern periphery of the ridge settles south. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued At 508 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Low cigs (IFR) are currently being observed over some of our South Dakota plains, lurking just to the east of KRAP. Confidence on this deck creeping into the terminal is low...perhaps 40 percent for/60 percent against. Have added SCT012 to the 12z TAF and will monitor satellite and observational trends for any needed amendments. Most guidance supports these low clouds through 15-16z/9-10am over the plains before they rapidly burn off with diurnal heating. Then, attention turns to our next period of thunderstorm potential, generally 19-05z/1pm to 11pm across the region today. Only minor tweaks made to ongoing PROB30s for KGCC and KRAP based on the latest CAMs. Frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds can be expected with any stronger convective cores, along with transient MVFR/IFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected tonight into Thursday morning as skies partially clear and precip concerns end. A glance at RH/dew point guidance suggests the potential for fog or low stratus is perhaps a bit less compared to this morning, but we'll continue to evaluate as that period draws closer in the forecast. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...KSmith  572 FXUS64 KSHV 081110 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 610 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight across east Texas and the I-30 corridor, becoming more widespread during the late morning and afternoon hours. - Quiet and dry weather will return Thursday and continue through the end of the week, with areawide highs in the low to middle 90s. - Unsettled weather looks to return Sunday and continue into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection has largely diminished across the ArkLaTex this evening, and while high resolution short range models have struggled to resolve development of new storms, particularly in regards to position and timing, additional redevelopment overnight cannot be ruled out. Based on high precipitable water values, the most likely regions to favor convection will be across east Texas and along the I-30 corridor. Guidance suggests this overnight impulse of moisture will propagate southeast into southern Arkansas and northwest Louisiana near daybreak, followed by another afternoon of areawide storm chances driven by the lingering axis, diminishing by mid evening. Overnight tonight, lows look to drop into the low to middle 70s, followed by highs in the low to middle 90s tomorrow at the majority of sites, aside from those where cloud cover and precipitation limit warming. Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, the upper level trough over the arkLaTex will lift north and east over the Mississippi and Ohio Valley, taking the axis with it and leaving the region dry through the end of the work week and beginning of the weekend. By early Saturday into Sunday, ridging over the western CONUS will amplify, forming a closed high over the Four Corners region which will drift north over the northern Plains. Steering around this high will at least open the door to afternoon sea breeze convection reaching our southern zones Saturday, followed by more widespread convection Sunday into early next week as easterly flow delivers a series of weaknesses our way, assuming we remain to the southeast of the ridge. The proximity of this upper level ridging looks to help sustain our summertime heat, though presence of convection may manage to limit runaway heating. At this point, highs in the 90s look to remain entrenched in place, with more sites aiming at the middle 90s. Lows will continue in the middle to upper 70s throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Some isolated convection has been developing and dissipating all night near and north of the I-20 Corridor of NE TX into SW AR and we will continue seeing this to start the 12z TAF package as well. Decided to prevail VCTS at the TYR/GGG and TXK terminals as a result, delaying VCTS to mid to late morning at the SHV terminal and not beginning VCTS til early afternoon at our remaining terminals. Should see convection dissipating in the 00z-03z timeframe with VFR conditions prevailing overnight tonight. Winds will be varying from SE to SW with speeds generally under 10kts during this TAF package except variable and more gusty in and around convection. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this morning and afternoon across the region. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 93 77 95 77 / 40 10 0 0 MLU 94 76 95 77 / 40 10 10 0 DEQ 93 73 95 76 / 30 10 0 0 TXK 94 76 97 77 / 30 10 0 0 ELD 91 74 94 76 / 40 10 10 0 TYR 96 78 97 78 / 30 0 0 0 GGG 95 77 96 77 / 40 0 0 0 LFK 95 76 96 76 / 20 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...13  696 FXUS64 KBMX 081112 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 610 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 - Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for much of the upcoming week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. - Pattern Change Next Week: A very strong ridge of high pressure will allow confidence to increase for above-average temperatures by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026 The region remains influenced by a weak mid-level closed low situated over the Central Mississippi River Valley, which continues to provide synoptic lift. This system, interacting with remnant outflow boundaries, will drive the increase in scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area. While activity is expected to peak during the afternoon, particularly across northern counties, some storms may persist into the overnight hours over the next 48 hours. Expected hazards include frequent lightning, heavy tropical downpours, and gusty winds of 20- 30 mph. Persistent hot and humid conditions will continue to impact the area, keeping afternoon highs in the low to mid-90s and heat indices at or above 100 degrees, consistent with the broader pattern of dangerous heat persisting across the Southeast. The closed low will gradually drift northeastward and weaken, leading to a decrease in overall forcing and storm coverage. By Friday, rain chances will decrease and become confined primarily to the eastern portion of the area, returning to the typical isolated to scattered, diurnally driven convective regime. Heat indices will also increase by Friday into Saturday with readings possibly reaching 105 degrees, which may approach or meet Heat Advisory criteria. A pattern shift begins on Sunday as an anomalous 500 mb ridge expands across the CONUS, eventually pushing a rare July surface front southward into the area. This boundary, in tandem with mid- level shortwave impulses embedded in northwesterly flow, is forecast to trigger widespread shower and storm development for both Sunday and Monday, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds remaining the primary concerns. By the middle of next week, model confidence decreases due to differences between deterministic and ensemble guidance, though confidence is increasing for above- average temperatures across the region. 16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 Plenty of low level moisture will continue to bring MVFR ceilings and visibility to the area, with improvement to VFR conditions expected by midmorning. Diurnal convection will again be expected through the afternoon Wednesday, with the greatest chances at all TAF sites except KMGM and KAUO. Left mention of shower or thunder out of these TAFs for now due to uncertainty and low confidence in any convection moving over the TAF site. Through the night tonight, low level moisture will again be higher with fog development possible again through the early morning. Left mention out of each TAF for now, and will include later when confidence increases. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week. Thunderstorms will also remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain little to none for most of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 72 91 72 / 50 40 50 30 Anniston 91 73 90 73 / 40 30 50 30 Birmingham 92 74 92 74 / 40 30 50 20 Tuscaloosa 91 73 92 74 / 40 20 40 20 Calera 94 73 94 74 / 40 20 50 20 Auburn 91 74 91 74 / 20 20 40 20 Montgomery 94 75 93 75 / 20 20 50 20 Troy 93 74 92 74 / 20 20 40 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...24  668 FXUS64 KEPZ 081111 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 511 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 451 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening but thunderstorm chances increase over the weekend and into Monday. - Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-102; except highs Thursday/Friday 101-106. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Summertime subtropical high is anchored over the Desert SW this evening with a moisture plume extending across the AZ-NM border up into the Central and Northern Rockies and High Plains. Considerable mid-level dry air has pushed south from the Plains and into much of the CWA. 00z sounding showed a meager 0.53" PW, and as a result, convective coverage has been notably lower, limited mainly to the Gila. Moisture across Central and Northern NM will pivot back to the south for Wednesday, and the GFS and NAM show PWs increasing back closer to an inch. Convective coverage should therefore increase. NBM was very pessimistic for the lowlands with POPs below 15%, but I increased them in line with the moisture increase and N'LY flow aloft. It shouldn't take much to drive isolated storms into the lowlands on outflows, and the HRRR supports this theory. We essentially repeat this pattern again Thursday though the center of the 500 mb high will nudge to the west. Highs will also creep upward through Friday with most lowlands above 100. Friday will start a transition. The 500 mb high will center itself back over NM, but it will also start shifting north. Initially, this will lower convective coverage given the proximity of the high, but the northward shift will allow moisture to move in from Mexico with highest POPs across the mountains and the International Border Friday night. As we go into the weekend and into next week, the high will continue to shift northward before centering itself near WY. This will allow an increase in moisture, decrease in highs, and increase in storm and rain chances. Rotating around the high will be inverted troughs though the GFS and Euro do not agree on their positions. POPs remain broad- brushed by the NBM, generally ranging 20-50% for any given 6 hour period. Heavy rain would be the main concern with these storms with the GFS showing PWs near 1.5". && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected with FEW-SCT250 in the afternoon through tomorrow evening. ISO TSRA/SHRA at TAF sites cannot be ruled out after 21z, but chance of occurrence is low. These storms will also trigger outflow boundaries with subsequent wind shifts. Outside of storms, winds will be light, generally from the southeast with speeds near 10 knots and occasional gusts to 20 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 451 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mostly dry and warm pattern continues. Near critical min RHs persists in the lowlands through Saturday with values generally 11-20%. Area mountain min RHs will generally be 20-35%. 20 foot winds each afternoon will stay light at 5-10 mph with calm winds overnight. Daily thunderstorm chances exists for the mountains each day through Saturday with isolated storms in the lowlands. Sunday and early next week looks potentially more active with more areawide rain chances with increased moisture moving into the region. This will increase min RHs above critical thresholds Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be near seasonal today, but even hotter temperatures expected Thursday through Saturday with Friday being the hottest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 102 78 103 / 20 20 20 0 Sierra Blanca 67 96 69 97 / 0 20 20 10 Las Cruces 70 100 71 101 / 20 20 20 0 Alamogordo 73 100 74 101 / 20 20 20 10 Cloudcroft 54 76 55 78 / 20 40 20 40 Truth or Consequences 71 100 72 101 / 20 20 20 0 Silver City 65 94 66 94 / 20 50 20 30 Deming 68 103 69 103 / 20 20 20 0 Lordsburg 70 100 69 100 / 20 20 30 10 West El Paso Metro 77 101 77 102 / 20 20 20 0 Dell City 69 99 71 101 / 0 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 74 102 75 103 / 0 20 20 0 Loma Linda 69 94 70 95 / 20 20 20 10 Fabens 74 102 75 103 / 0 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 73 100 73 102 / 20 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 77 101 78 102 / 20 20 20 0 Jornada Range 72 100 72 102 / 20 20 20 0 Hatch 71 104 72 105 / 20 20 20 0 Columbus 74 104 75 104 / 20 30 30 0 Orogrande 70 99 71 100 / 20 20 20 10 Mayhill 58 88 60 89 / 20 60 20 40 Mescalero 58 88 58 90 / 20 30 20 40 Timberon 55 84 57 86 / 20 20 20 30 Winston 61 92 62 93 / 20 40 20 20 Hillsboro 69 98 69 99 / 20 30 20 10 Spaceport 67 100 69 101 / 20 20 20 0 Lake Roberts 59 95 59 95 / 20 50 20 30 Hurley 65 97 66 98 / 20 50 20 20 Cliff 65 100 66 100 / 20 40 20 20 Mule Creek 63 96 63 96 / 20 20 20 20 Faywood 66 95 66 96 / 20 40 20 20 Animas 71 101 69 99 / 20 40 50 10 Hachita 69 100 68 99 / 20 30 40 10 Antelope Wells 70 100 68 97 / 20 40 50 10 Cloverdale 66 94 63 91 / 20 50 60 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen  845 FXUS64 KBRO 081113 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 613 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 * Hot conditions continue through the week. Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk each day, mainly in the Valley becoming more widespread this weekend. Heat indices will climb to between 100 and 110 degrees each day. * Daily thunderstorm chances will be low (generally under 20 percent) through Thursday, before increasing (to near 30 to 40 percent) Friday through Saturday. * There is generally a low risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The 500mb ridge is expected to pivot west towards Southern California into late this week, before working northeast towards the Northern Plains over the weekend and early next week. This will allow weaker pressure and increasing moisture to settle along the lower Texas coast for much of the forecast period, generally maintaining isolated sea breeze showers or thunderstorms each afternoon from east to west. The best chance of rain will occur Friday into Saturday, currently near 30 to 40 percent, with a shortwave disturbance along the coast increasing instability and a surge of above normal moisture Thursday through Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms late this week into next week will be efficient rain makers with rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour. Have heavily tweaked NBM POP grids into Day 5 to be a bit more realistic with coverage into Saturday and lean into typical sea breeze timing. Mid summer temperatures into the mid to upper 90s for most inland locations continue, with a cooler beach and warmer brush country. Expect a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through much of the forecast period, with brief relief where clouds, showers, or thunderstorms can develop. Long period swell increases into the weekend and early next week offshore, potentially bringing a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents along the lower Texas coast. Astronomical tides build this weekend as we near the New Moon, which may narrow already narrow beaches at high tide cycles this weekend into next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR is anticipated at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Breezy winds during the daylight hours will become light for the nighttime. Clear to partly cloudy skies will also prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the coastal waters through most of the forecast period with strong high pressure northwest of the Gulf. Expect an afternoon chop each day on the bay, with Gulf seas of generally 2 to 3 feet, gradually building towards 3 to 4 feet late this weekend into next week with longer period swells. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 78 93 79 / 10 10 20 10 HARLINGEN 95 75 94 76 / 20 10 20 10 MCALLEN 99 77 97 79 / 20 10 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 76 97 77 / 20 10 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 87 81 / 10 10 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 91 79 / 10 10 20 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$  875 FXUS64 KCRP 081115 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 615 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts this week, with peak heat indices between 103-108 degrees. - Low rain chances through Thursday along the Coastal Plains, medium rain chances Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 South Texas lies within a mid-level weakness stretching SW from Arkansas into NE Mexico which is currently splitting ridging over the Fl Peninsula and ridging over the SW US. Although this weakness will persist some subtle height rises will be observed tomorrow with PWATs generally in the 1.6 inch range (near normal). Any storms should be sea-breeze driven with coverage largely being isolated (15- 25%) and focused over the Coastal Plains in the afternoon. Although a surge of tropical moisture will approach the area from the southeast on Thursday, it's leading edge should not reach the area until after peak diurnal heating, so expect similar isolated sea- breeze activity. The aforementioned moisture plume (PWATs up to 2-2.3 inches) and accompanying mid-lvl easterly disturbance will approach the area late Thursday into Friday bringing increasing rain chances Friday into Saturday. At the moment the system looks progressive enough that the rain will be beneficial and manageable, but naturally given those 90-95th percentile PWATs some areas will see heavy downpours and isolated high rain totals. Rain chances Sunday into early next week will be dependent upon if the disturbance and moisture plume lift north-northeast of the area, or remains near the area. For now NBM suggests isolated PoPs but these may need to be increased as the time period approaches. High temperatures remain near normal through the period with highs ranging from 90 near the coast to around 100 in the Rio Grande Plains. Lows will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s with the spatial gradient reversed from the highs (as is typical in southeasterly flow). Peak heat index values generally range between 103 and 108 daily. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A couple of sites will remain below VFR due to low ceilings and visibilities early this morning. By mid-morning, those sites should rebound back to VFR conditions. Winds will remain light this morning before increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 20-24 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Gentle to moderate south-southeasterly winds (BF 3-4) will persist through the workweek. Low daily rain chances will also continue through much of the week before increasing into the moderate range by late week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 76 92 79 / 10 10 10 20 Victoria 96 75 95 77 / 20 10 10 10 Laredo 99 76 98 77 / 10 10 10 0 Alice 95 74 94 75 / 20 10 10 10 Rockport 92 82 91 82 / 10 10 10 30 Cotulla 98 75 98 76 / 0 10 10 0 Kingsville 93 75 92 76 / 10 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 90 81 90 82 / 10 0 10 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC/91 AVIATION...JCP/84  861 FXUS64 KOHX 081114 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 614 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and weekend. Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible mid to late week, mainly west of the Plateau. - Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with stronger, slower-moving storms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Earlier convection has dissipated but moistened soils will increase chances for radiational fog tonight/early Wednesday morning. There's roughly a 20-40% chance for patchy dense fog to develop across Middle TN with locations that received rain earlier today being the most likely candidates. Tomorrow will be fairly similar to today. An upper low over western KY/TN will drift to the east and become more of an open shortwave trough by the evening. With plenty of instability and PWATs in the 1.75-2"+ range, scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Bulk shear will be meager, so chances are low for storms to become severe. Like today, the more likely outcome will be storms producing torrential downpours that could cause some localized flooding concerns. We'll warm up a bit on Thursday with slightly drier air moving in from the west thanks to the flow aloft becoming more zonal. This may keep the bulk of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms relegated to the eastern half of Middle TN, but any storm will still be capable of producing heavy rain with PWATs around 1.5-1.75". Heat indicies will reach the upper-90s to low-100s across the central and western portions of the state. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Greater chances for widespread diurnal showers and thunderstorms will return Friday-Saturday. There's a low chance for severe storms Friday and Saturday, but shortwaves moving through aloft will provide more shear than we've seen over the past couple of days, especially north of I-40. PWATs will continue to be high, meaning any storm will be capable of heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding concerns. Heat indices near 100 remain possible for areas generally west of the Cumberland Plateau through Saturday. Next week looks warmer and drier but without concern for dangerous heat indices like last week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 IFR/LIFR patchy fog mainly outside of the Nashville area will improve over the next few hour with VFR conditions returning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again after 17z and will continue through 02z. MVFR/IFR conditions in any showers or thunderstorms. Light winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 72 90 74 / 60 30 20 60 Clarksville 87 71 91 74 / 60 40 30 60 Crossville 82 66 83 67 / 50 30 50 40 Columbia 88 69 90 72 / 50 30 30 40 Cookeville 84 68 84 70 / 70 40 50 60 Jamestown 83 66 84 68 / 60 40 50 40 Lawrenceburg 86 69 88 71 / 40 30 50 40 Murfreesboro 88 70 90 72 / 60 40 30 60 Waverly 87 70 90 73 / 40 30 20 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TNZ024- 056>058-060-061-075-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cahill LONG TERM....Cahill AVIATION.....Mueller  874 FXUS65 KGJT 081115 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 515 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue today, favoring the terrain. - Chances for wetting rains remain low. Gusty outflow winds and dry lightning pose threats for new/existing wildfires. - Localized critical fire weather conditions emerge Thursday for southeast UT and southwest CO. - Afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal are forecast this weekend, with triple digits possible in most desert valley areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 LINGERING MOISTURE: The area of high pressure centered over the Four Corners will shift west today, cutting off the Western Slope from the little surge of moisture we've been under the last few days. Drier air begins to advect in from the west, although enough moisture is expected to linger in the mid-levels to keep the chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This activity will favor the higher terrain along the Divide, as well as the higher terrain of the eastern Uintas. Surface levels remain dry, limiting the potential for any wetting rain. A few hundredths to maybe a tenth of an inch are possible. The primary threats with any storms will be outflow winds capable of producing 35-45 mph gusts, and frequent lightning. Some of this moisture could linger into Thursday, mainly along the Northern Divide mountains, with similar impacts. FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL: Winds are expected to be relatively light through the next seven days, outside of those enhanced by nearby convection. However, an area of elevated winds is expected around the Four Corners, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible. As a result, localized critical fire weather conditions will be possible in this area. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN: As high pressure builds back into the Southwest this weekend, hotter and drier conditions will return for the Western Slope. Daily humidity minimums will be in the single digits to low teens, and temperatures will jump to 5-15 degrees above normal. Triple digit highs are likely for the lower elevations starting on Saturday and carrying into next week. For Grand Junction, it looks as though we'll get close to the all-time record high of 107 on Sunday, as the current forecast has a high of 106. Luckily, winds will remain on the lighter side, limiting fire weather concerns through the period. Even still, be aware of potential spark sources if out recreating this weekend. Additionally, be mindful if spending time outdoors in heat. Be sure to stay hydrated, wear loose and light-colored clothing, and limit activity during the hottest part of the day. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 513 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another round of convection is expected again today though models are suggesting coverage should be less than seen yesterday. Either way, the main concerns remain gusty outflow winds and lightning. Not enough confidence to put any mention in TAF sites, however. A few afternoon gusts of 20 to 25kts will also be possible, outside of any showers or storms. VFR conditions remain predominant. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Isolated dry thunderstorm concerns continue today and possibly into Thursday before storm potential almost entirely diminishes. Surface relative humidity values remain low, below 20%, across the lower elevations. Greater surface relative humidity values in the higher terrain, especially across the highest elevations of the San Juan Mountains, should allow for more rain to reach ground. Chances of wetting rains remain low, under 10%, but not zero. A few storms could be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall through the evening which, if they track over an active fire or burn scar, could prompt debris flow concerns. The probability of this remains low, but non-negligible. Dry thunderstorms still remain a concern through the evening hours, bringing about a risk of new lightning ignitions and gusty outflow winds which could impact new and existing wildfires. As hotter and drier conditions settle in Friday and into the weekend, fire conditions could become exacerbated. Lighter winds are expected through the weekend, however pockets of 25-35 mph gusts are possible across southwest Colorado and Southeast Utah. Coverage of these gustier winds will be limited, however, keeping critical fire weather conditions localized. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...BGB/TGJT  948 FXUS63 KTOP 081116 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 616 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms move across the area tonight. Locally damaging wind gusts and heavy rain possible, mainly towards north-central KS. - Storm chances continue Thursday and Friday, though details of each round will be dependent on how prior convection evolves. - Temperatures generally stay near average through the weekend, followed by a warming trend next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another quiet morning across eastern KS, but lee troughing and convection over the central High Plains are signs of change on the way. Surface ridging near the KS/MO will shift away today as the cut- off upper low over the Ozarks finally gets kicked eastward. As southerly low-level flow gets reestablished, today should be a few degrees warmer than the past few. Highs climb into the mid 90s for most, with heat indices generally 95-100. As lee troughing continues to deepen to our west, another round of convection will develop this evening across western KS and southwest NE. Persistent isentropic ascent around 700 mb should help keep convection going into north- central KS, particularly if an appreciable cold pool can develop. Effective shear has trended a bit stronger (to around 30 kts) compared to yesterday, so have more confidence now in damaging wind potential (gusts 60-65 mph) as storms approach north-central KS towards midnight. Increasing capping and weaker instability with eastern extent means storms should still weaken eventually as they approach eastern KS. Could also see some locally heavy rain totals of 2-4" across north-central KS, given 1.75" PWATs and some degree of training convection. While this could result in isolated flooding issues, the steady eastward motion of the system keeps the potential for larger flooding issues low, especially with the past few days of dry conditions. The overnight storms shift to the east by mid-morning tomorrow, with increasing confidence that this will push an outflow boundary/effective cold front southward through most of the area. So adjusted high temperatures Thursday 4-5 degrees cooler, closer to the HREF mean in the mid/upper 80s. Confidence is lower with additional precipitation chances Thursday afternoon into Friday. If the main boundary stays south of the area, as is trending more likely, that would reduce chances for PM severe thunderstorm development. Could still see some scattered showers and storms north of the boundary, mainly Thursday and Friday nights as the LLJ strengthens isentropic ascent. Could see some lingering rain chances through the weekend as the boundary stays nearby across Oklahoma and Arkansas. However we should generally dry out as the boundary sags farther south and upper ridging strengthens over the Rockies. By next week, this ridging will further strengthen and expand northeast over the Northern Plains. Very good consistency in the LREF for 500 mb heights to approach 600 dam somewhere over the north-central CONUS. So very good confidence in heat increasing next week, though at least through mid-week the most anomalous heat should stay to our north. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions with light SSE winds will persist through this evening. After midnight, storms should move west to east across the area, with some gusty winds possible towards KMHK. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Reese  974 FXUS64 KHGX 081117 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 617 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot conditions continue. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. - Scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Lower, but non-zero, rain chances Thursday. - A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive Thursday night and Friday. Warm, muggy conditions persist with daily chances of rain through the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mid level trof axis will remain stretched across SE TX today and Thursday. PW's around 2" closer to the coast should allow for some scattered seabreeze activity to develop as the day progresses. Slightly lower moisture availability Thursday should keep things a bit more isolated in nature. Daytime highs and heat indices will be about the same as they have been the past couple of days. Thursday night into Friday, an inverted mid level trof in the Gulf will push wwd toward and into Mexico and south Tx. In the low levels, a tighter pressure gradient will transport some deeper tropical moisture into the region. PW values between 2.1-2.4" look to hang around through the weekend into early next week setting the stage for continued chances of mainly scattered, diurnally driven activity. Overall coverage will vary on a day-to-day basis with subtle fluctuations of moisture values, clouds, and heating. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A fairly typical summertime TAF pattern is expected through this cycle. Brief MVFR cigs/vis are possible over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR prevails through this cycle. Have maintained the mention of VCSH through the morning for the sites closer to the coast with PROB30s for TSRA across all terminals through the afternoon hours as convection is expected along the sea-breeze. Any storms that develops will likely lead to brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vis and gusty winds. Convection should wane by 00Z or shortly after. Winds will become light and variable once again overnight into Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A remnant, diffuse outflow boundary from Tuesday night's storms could provide somewhat of a focus for isolated storm development early this morning in the Galveston Bay area. Otherwise, a more typical summertime pattern will persist into Thursday with the seabreeze the primary driver for iso-sct precip. Shower and storm chances increase late Thursday night and into the weekend as deeper moisture flows into the region. Best chances in the marine environment should generally be in the late night through early afternoon hours then transition inland. Onshore flow will prevail through the period. Speeds in the 10-15kt range today should slightly increase to closer to 15g20kt heading into Thursday and Friday along with a corresponding bump in the seas into the 3-4ft range. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 76 96 76 / 10 20 0 10 Houston (IAH) 97 78 96 79 / 30 20 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 82 / 20 0 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Castillo MARINE...47  007 FXUS63 KDLH 081118 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 618 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rainfall is possible over inland northwest to north- central Wisconsin this morning. Moderate to pockets of heavy rainfall falling on top of previously heavy rainfall persists for the Brainerd Lakes to Pine County region. - A Flood Watch is in effect through late this morning from the Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin ending at Washburn County where the risk of flooding is greatest. - Minimal precipitation in the extended forecast with potentially impressive heat this weekend into next week. - The risk of heat-related illness will increase from Saturday into Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Heavy rainfall is ongoing across the southern Brainerd Lakes to inland northwest Wisconsin region early this morning. Observed rainfall of 1 to 2.5 inches has been observed so far in this area, although highest right around the Hinckley part of western Pine County where discrete strong thunderstorms moved overheard a few hours ago. An additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches still possible into the early morning daylight hours today for this entire area though of the Northland. The Flood Watch was expanded earlier into the Burnett and Washburn Counties as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could bring minor flooding to these counties into the commute hours today. As the heaviest rainfall clears east of the forecast area later this morning, persistent rain showers and capped at mid-levels isolated thunderstorms are possible for far eastern Minnesota, the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. A notable instability gradient sits just south of the region with southern Price County on the far northern edge of it. If, a big if, this gradient can shift a bit further northward then a few strong thunderstorms producing small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph are possible for Price County in north-central Wisconsin. But right now the confidence is fairly low for any strong to severe storms is fairly low. Guidance continues to trend warmer for the late weekend to early week heat. HeatRisk brings in a general 30-70% chance of Major heat impacts (highest in north-central MN and lowest in inland northwest WI and Arrowhead), but there is high confidence for at least areawide Moderate heat impacts Sunday. High temperatures could in the upper-80s to low-90s are forecast. This heat lasts into early next week then. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Main stories for this forecast package involve the potential for heavy rain tonight and early Wednesday then the warm-up this weekend into next week which will raise the potential for heat- related illness. Synopsis... As of 19Z this afternoon a nearly stationary front stretched from near Watertown, SD to near St. Cloud, MN to near Bayfield, WI. Regional radar mosaic revealed an area of light rain over eastern North Dakota with showers over a portion of northwest Minnesota. A compact MCS was noted over west-central Minnesota while an MCV from early morning convection was centered over far northeast South Dakota within an area of stratiform rain. The latest SPC RAP analysis revealed MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg over east-central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota with a gradient northward along and just north of the front. This afternoon through Wednesday morning... Expect the MCS to propagate eastward along the instability gradient through late afternoon. It will likely strengthen as greater instability builds ahead and to the south of the complex. Meanwhile the trailing MCV will create a localized enhancement in convergence and lift in its wake. The showers over North Dakota and northwest Minnesota are forecastto spread eastward into northern Minnesota by this evening in response to a lobe of 500 mb vorticity over North Dakota this afternoon which will propagate eastward through tonight. The main focus for heavy rainfall and a small risk of severe storms will be found along and north of the front. This evening, an 850 mb low-level jet is forecast to develop and create enhanced low-level convergence along and north of the front. Instability will become somewhat limited overnight with MUCAPE values of 500-2000 J/kg straddling the front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in north-central South Dakota this afternoon and propagate eastward with time tonight. Meanwhile additional storms are forecast to develop over central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. The strongest moisture advection will be over the Brainerd Lakes by 08.06Z and will propagate farther eastward overnight. A reservoir of PWAT values of 2 to 2.5 inches is forecast to build over central Minnesota in response to southerly theta-e advection through late evening. Freezing heights will be around 13kft which combined with limited instability and 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots should produce low-centroid storms and efficient precipitation production. Several CAMs reveal a training patter of storms tonight over central Minnesota which raises the potential for widespread 1-3 inch rainfall amounts. Isolated 2-4 inch amounts are certainly possible. With all these factors in mind along the the recent rainfall over the Northland, we decided to issue a Flood Watch from the Brainerd Lakes east into Pine County. That area is the most likely to see excessive rainfall. Flash flood guidance over the watch area ranges from 1.5 to 2.25 inches in 1 hour and 1.8-2.5 inches in 3 hours. Those precipitation rates are well within reach given this setup. The severe weather risk is more limited. The modest instability and mid-level winds will limit the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greater potential for severe storms is to the southwest of my area. The existence of the MCS/MCV combination has the potential to displace the strongest convergence south of the Northland for tonight, which would shift the area of heavy rain potential out of our area. These trends will need to be monitored through this evening. Showers and storms will persist overnight and slowly taper off from west to east Wednesday morning. The risk of flash flooding decreases rapidly as storms weaken. Wednesday afternoon and evening... The front is expected to loiter over the southern third of Minnesota into central Wisconsin Wednesday. Another round of showers and storms is forecast to our south which may propagate eastward into the Hayward and Phillips areas during the late afternoon and evening hours. Depending on how far east the heavy rain tonight occurs, there may be a chance of flash flooding over those areas. Temperature will generally trend cooler for Wednesday due in part to lingering cloud cover. Northeast winds will allow a weak lake breeze to propagate well inland keeping temps cooler. Look for high temperatures in the low 80s north and south to the low to upper 70s from the Brainerd Lakes into NW WI and shoreline areas of the Arrowhead. Thursday through early next week... We will enter a period of quieter weather for the remainder of this week. Widespread rain chances dwindle as zonal flow develops over the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Upper- level ridging will build Sunday into early next week which will allow strong southwesterly theta-e advection to bring a return of upper 80s to low 90s temperatures. Dewpoints will increase as well. The risk of heat-related illness will trend higher starting as early as Saturday and persisting through Wednesday at least. Several rounds of heat headlines may be needed. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will steadily depart the area today. The primary site that could still see heavy rain and thunderstorms today is HYR, with some vicinity showers possible through this morning at all other TAF sites. A IFR to MVFR ceiling should also continue to push out of the area through today, with mostly VFR conditions expected. Fog is expected to develop overnight, with IFR to LIFR visibilities possible for most terminals except INL. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Light winds and minimal wave activity is likely for the next few days outside of any thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms move over the lake this morning and cannot be entirely ruled out along the shorelines either this afternoon. Dense marine fog may form tonight for the Twin Ports to South Shore. Advisories may be needed in time for this possible dense fog tonight. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Heavy rainfall was observed for all districts south of the Iron Range early this morning. The heaviest rainfall moves out of region through inland northwest Wisconsin later this morning. Afternoon isolated thunderstorms today though keep a slight chance of gusty and erratic winds for far eastern Minnesota and across northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. A notable gradient in observed minimum relative humidity is expected today for northern Minnesota. MinRHs from 30-40% are forecast along and north of the Iron Range and across the Arrowhead and closer to 50-60% along and south of US Hwy 2. Generally dry conditions with MinRHs from 30-45% are forecast Thursday. Winds today through Friday remain light and slowly increase from the southwest Saturday into Sunday. Seasonable temperatures through Friday warm Saturday and become hot and humid Sunday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ038. WI...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ006-007. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...NLy DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Levens MARINE...NLy FIRE WEATHER...NLy  059 FXUS63 KDVN 081119 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 619 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms late this evening. Main hazard will be damaging wind. - Additional storms Thursday and Friday, with isolated severe possible and heavy downpours. - Above normal temperatures next week, with a prolonged period of heat becoming more likely. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Morning satellite and radar imagery show an MCS over MN/SD that recent loops have begun to show signs of weakening, especially its eastward extent. Closer to home, weak high pressure was overhead with very light south winds. Temperatures were 2 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Another warm and humid day is in store for the region, with slightly warmer 850mb temps (18-19C), similar mixing depths, and plentiful sunshine yielding afternoon highs near 90 degrees and heat indices in the lower 90s. Attention then turns to the evolution of storms initiating to our northwest this afternoon/evening. The latest 00z HREF and 00z REFS neighborhood and paintball progs show two main areas to watch this evening for storm development; over west central WI/southeast MN and another over western IA. Sufficient instability (CAPE 1500-2000 J/Kg) and moisture will be in place as storms fire along a cool front. However, marginal deep layer shear, weak mid-level lapse rates, and not ideal time of arrival become the limiting factors and lead to lower confidence in severe storms reaching our area. Nonetheless, will need to watch the activity out west this evening for any developing cold pools. If they can maintain their strength and reach the northwest portions of the CWA, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. The SPC has introduced a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms north of a line from Belle Plaine to Dyersville. The primary hazard will be damaging wind with any bowing segments and with slow storm motions, heavy rain will also be possible. A general timing of severe storms would be between 7pm and midnight. There will also be sub-severe activity in the area during this period and overnight. Thursday morning low temperatures will only drop into the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday...the aforementioned cold front to drop south and stall over northern MO, with another shortwave progged to move along it during the afternoon/evening. A strengthening mid-level jet and low level convergence may allow for widely scattered showers/storms to develop during the afternoon and evening as suggested by the 00z REFS. Whether this activity will bring a severe risk is still uncertain. Cloud debris from any morning storms may limit atmosphere recovery and thereby keep the severe risk further to our south and east. In any case, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms remains for northeast MO and west central IL. Friday-Saturday...frontal boundary to continue to drop well to the south of the area, taking with it any lingering precipitation. Some 00z model solutions (NAM/GFS) show yet another shortwave tracking east out of the central Plains Friday, bringing with it scattered showers/storms along an elevated theta-e boundary. As a result, the forecast has 30-50% chances for storms primarily south of I-80 during the afternoon and evening. Severe potential is a little uncertain, with marginal deep layer shear. However, if a convectively augmented MCV were to take place upstream enhancing the wind field, then some severe storms would be possible. Looking into Saturday, high pressure to build into the area behind departing system resulting in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures in the middle 80s. Early next week...model guidance continues to show a large anomalous upper ridge (12z NAEFS/ENS 2.5 to 3 sigma from their ensemble mean) building into the central CONUS. In fact, the 12z GEFS/ENS/GEPS has this ridge encompassing most of the lower 48 by 12z Tuesday with its center not that far away from the local area. As a result, a prolonged period of dry conditions, above normal temps, and building heat is likely. Factoring in evapotranspiration of maturing crops, I wouldn't be surprised to see more heat headlines needed for at least a portion of the area. Apparent T probabilities of 95 degrees or higher off the LREF (100 member ensemble of the GEFS/ENS/GEPS) are in the 40-60% range Tuesday-Thursday. If that were not enough, the latest CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook has a Moderate (40-60%) risk of extreme heat for most of the CWA July 15th-17th. Summer heat lovers rejoice, but for all the rest of us, we will need to wait until later in the month for some relief perhaps from storms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with mostly clear skies and light winds. We will start the day with light and variable winds, becoming more southwesterly by 15-18z throughout. No sig wx is expected at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gross LONG TERM...Gross AVIATION...Gunkel  181 FXUS64 KOUN 081121 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 621 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 610 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A few isolated showers and storms may be possible today across southeast/south central Oklahoma. - Storm chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible Thursday evening into early Friday morning. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through next weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 There continues to be a signal for isolated showers and thunderstorms into early this morning, primarily aided by perturbations within the northwest flow aloft. Increasing mid- level heights today will help temperatures this afternoon get into the low 100s across much of the area. Given the upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints, especially across south central Oklahoma, heat indices will range from 100-105 F for most of the forecast area. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, with no severe weather expected. The best chance for storms this afternoon will be across south central and southeastern Oklahoma. Bunker && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Storms will likely develop over the High Plains of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon, and push into the Plains Thursday night. Although the best chances of storms will be farther north, there is still potential for some of these storms to move across northern Oklahoma. These storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts as they move into northern Oklahoma. As storms move into Oklahoma, they are expected to weaken. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than on Thursday, but overall there won't be much relief from the heat. Hottest heat indices during the afternoon will be across southern and south central Oklahoma. More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible Friday evening as storms move in from the high Plains. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aforementioned showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday across much of the area. Temperatures will be cooler over the weekend, however, with increasing surface dewpoints, afternoon heat indices will still be in the 100s. Mid-level ridge will shift to the north across the central and high Plains into next week, helping to keep temperatures near average across the southern Plains. As of right now, the overall synoptic pattern next week will support above average temperatures and below average precipitation. Bunker && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated showers and storms may develop this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma, but there is not enough confidence in exact location of development for a PROB30 mention in this TAF issuance. Winds will be around 5 to 15 knots out of the south at all sites today with some low end gusts to near 20 knots possible. An additional round of showers and storms may develop late tonight into the overnight hours across northern Oklahoma. A PROB30 was used at WWR, PNC, SWO for this potential. However, confidence is still low on how widespread and southward any shower or storm activity will move tonight. Any storms that develop today and tonight will be capable of erratic and gusty winds and lightning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 99 78 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 100 78 101 79 / 0 0 00 Gage OK 101 76 101 73 / 10 20 10 40 Ponca City OK 96 77 98 78 / 0 20 10 10 Durant OK 98 80 99 80 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...23  069 FXUS65 KFGZ 081120 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 420 AM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...For most, mainly hot and dry conditions are expected through the end of this week. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue over portions of eastern and central Arizona Wednesday, but expect less activity Thursday and Friday. Then, Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up this weekend and into next week. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon through at least Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...The ridge axis that has been along the AZ/NM border for the last few days has started to flatten and retrograde to the west this morning. Before this fully develops, expect another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Navajo and Apache counties, as well as northern Gila County and possibly eastern Yavapai and southern Coconino counties. Moisture values are decent over much of the CWA, but the deepest moisture still resides south of the Mogollon Rim and across much of southeastern Arizona. Any convection moving into this air mass this afternoon could develop into isolated, yet fairly strong storms. By Thursday and Friday, the ridge position to our west will drive most moisture south of the CWA, with the only activity likely being over or just south of the White Mountains. This will be short-lived. By Saturday and Sunday, the ridge rapidly rebounds, strengthens and then moves into a very favorable flow pattern for the North American Monsoon. This is starting to look like our official start, as all of next week is now looking quite robust. As the moisture pool wobbles in and out of the CWA, we expect very warm temperatures to continue, possibly not peaking until Saturday or Sunday. The Extreme Heat Warning for the Grand Canyon is in effect through Saturday evening. Other lower elevations will experience similar conditions, but are not in any EHW products. That is about it, moisture teases us for a few days and then, it surely looks like the Monsoon begins. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION...Wednesday 08/12Z through Thursday 09/12Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. SCT SHRA/TSRA, primarily over southern Apache and Navajo counties during the afternoon, may produce brief MVFR. Some ISOLD cells may push as far west as a KFLG/KPAN line by late afternoon. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25kts. OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/12Z through Saturday 11/12Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions, as activity moves south. ISOLD storms possible INVOF the White Mtns each afternoon. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Most areas will remain hot and dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over eastern Arizona Wednesday, with more isolated activity as far west as a Flagstaff to Payson line. Thunderstorm activity Thursday mainly over the White Mountains. Stronger storms either day will be capable of producing wetting rains. Friday through Sunday...Hot and mostly dry. Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountain region on Friday, before activity starts moving back west and north Saturday and especially Sunday. Expect southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph on Friday. Winds becoming lighter and more variable for Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ006 below 4000 feet. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  265 FXUS62 KJAX 081123 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 723 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated To Widely Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms Today, - Decreasing Chances Through the Week. Wednesday: Peak Heat Index 105-111 Most Areas. Major Heat Risk through the rest of the Week - Moderate Rip Current Risk Beaches Today && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Heat Advisory most areas today - Lower convective chances today Stacked high pressure ridge axis will remain over south central FL area continuing the deep southwesterly flow. PWATs are about 1.8 to 1.9 inches, and so are still close to normal. Mean layer flow is a little weaker today and moisture levels in the 1000-700mb layer are drier than the past 2 days. This combined with warm temps aloft and the prevailing southwest flow will result in lower coverage/chances of showers and storms today, mainly in the 20-30 percent range. Strongest storm potential will be along the dominant west coast sea breeze and later in the afternoon along the east coast sea breeze. The latter feature will be able to move inland a little further than the past 2 days given the weaker flow. Any isolated convection this evening will tend to dissipate through 11 pm. Less cloud cover, slightly warmer temps at 925 mb and 850 mb, and weak flow will enable even hotter temperatures than Mon and Tue. Currently have a heat advisory in effect today with some areas topping out close to 110. High temps in the mid to upper 90s anticipated and not far from record highs. These records are noted below in the climate section. Muggy overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s expected. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential for Thursday and Friday Afternoons - Lower convective chances Upper air ridging strengthens, limiting convection for the end of the work week. Precipitation chances Thursday remain isolated over north central Florida and the northeast FL coast south of St. Augustine in the afternoon and evening where some moisture lingers, with northeast Florida and southeast Georgia likely remaining dry on Friday. With mostly sunny skies and very limited showers and storms, dangerous heat will be the main concern both days. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast as southwesterly winds continue. Afternoon heat indices will approach 102-110 degrees both days, Heat Advisories may be necessary for portions of northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential Saturday Afternoon - Convective chances increase Sunday Onward Convection will gradually increase daily Saturday onward, with coverage Saturday mainly isolated to scattered as both sea breezes push inland. Sunday, stronger southwest flow will bring higher convective chances closer to the I-95 corridor to the coast where the Gulf sea breeze meets the pinned Atlantic sea breeze later in the afternoon. Afternoon max heat index values remain dangerously high Saturday, approaching Heat Advisory conditions. By Sunday, temperatures drop a few degrees area-wide as more storms are expected. Monday and Tuesday, precipitation chances increase to near 60-70% as a front approaches from the north. Higher cloud cover and storm chances will lower temperatures back to near normal in the lower to mid 90s to start off the new week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will persist this morning. More limited convective coverage is expected today as upper ridging establishes over Florida. Still anticipate a 20-30 percent chance of showers and a storm, but low confidence on timing right now so have only included VCSH/VCTS. Otherwise, southwesterly flow will keep the sea breeze from pushing beyond KCRG/KSSI/KSGJ this afternoon. VFR conds expected again tonight following any isolated evening convection, except for the usual patchy MVFR fog at VQQ from 07-11Z. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a southwest flow through early afternoon followed by late afternoon and evening wind surges from the south to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters each day through the week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents continues today through the end of the week due to fairly low surf conditions from prevailing offshore flow. Some enhanced potential still looks likely for the northern beaches by late afternoon from Mayport northward due to stronger southeast wind component each day. Surf remains generally in the 1-2 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 FROM - Wednesday Through Sunday High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through Monday, with drier than normal conditions forecast through Saturday. This will lead to above average temperatures and dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values through Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Sunday, with patchy to areas of high afternoon dispersion north of I-10 expected each day. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above critical values. Precipitation chances increase early next week as a front approaches from the north. Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows. && .CLIMATE... Summer heat is certainly here. There is potential for some locations to get to the century mark today with probability of this occurrence at about 20-30 percent. These probabilities look a bit higher for Thursday and Friday. For the next few days, here are the record high temperatures that are within 3 degrees of the current forecast: July 8th: KJAX: 100/1879 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 100/2016 July 9th: KJAX: 101/1879 KGNV: 99/1932 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 101/2016 July 10th: KJAX: 102/1879 KGNV: 99/1914 KAMG: 99/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 July 11th: KGNV: 100/1900 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/1998 July 12th: KGNV: 99/1902 KCRG: 99/1981 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 76 98 76 / 20 20 10 0 SSI 94 80 94 80 / 30 30 10 10 JAX 98 77 99 77 / 20 20 10 0 SGJ 96 77 97 77 / 20 20 20 0 GNV 97 75 98 75 / 20 10 10 0 OCF 96 75 97 75 / 20 20 20 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. MARINE...None. && $$  232 FXUS63 KLOT 081122 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 622 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm today with highs in the mid-upper 80s. - A corridor of heavy rainfall may occur somewhere in the region Thursday PM, though confidence in local impacts remains low. The strongest storms may be capable of gusty to locally damaging wind gusts, mainly south of I-80. - Mainly dry, warmer weather expected this weekend through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds are light and variable to calm early this morning amidst an expansive area of surface high pressure. Radiational cooling under clear skies may lead to patchy fog development, mainly southeast of a Pontiac, IL to Valparaiso, IN line where dewpoints depressions are lowest. Can't fully rule out very shallow and locally dense fog over low-lying open areas and fields. Any fog that does develop will quickly erode after daybreak. The mid-upper ridge axis will gradually shift east today allowing a return of southwesterly low-level flow to the area, which paired with mostly sunny skies will lead to a seasonably warm day with highs in the mid-upper 80s (upper 70s to lower 80s possible along the Lake County, IL lakeshore where winds lean southeast in the afternoon). To our northwest a shortwave and associated trailing cold front will lead to thunderstorm development across IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. This activity may attempt to drift into northwest Illinois very late tonight, likely in a decaying phase. Nevertheless, can't fully rule out gusty outflow winds and a few lightning strikes northwest of a Dixon to Waukegan, IL line after midnight. Looking ahead to Thursday through early Friday morning, the surface front and/or residual outflow boundary may stall over the area during the day. While there has been an overall southward trend in model guidance over the past 24 hours with respect to where the corridor of heaviest rainfall is most favored, there remains notable model spread in where this boundary ends up as well as the strength and position of a separate convectively augmented wave (and associated MCV) from the Central Plains that is expected to move across the region. Even with a southerly shift in its track, continue to have concerns that localized areas or even a narrow corridor of heavy rainfall may materialize within the vicinity of the aforementioned stalled boundary on the north side of the system (hinted at in the 6Z HRRR/NAMNest). Given the local susceptibility to flooding from recent heavy rains, will need to continue monitoring model and observational trends closely. The strongest storms will be capable of precip loaded gusty to locally damaging wind gusts, though the better potential for severe weather exists just south of the area into central and southern Illinois where the stronger mid-level flow is expected. The forecast for Friday will be largely dependent on Thursday, though in general the greatest coverage of showers and storms is favored south of the area. Have maintained precip chances (20-40%) south of the Chicago metro to account for any showers and storms that develop on the northern edge of another wave expected to move across central and southern Illinois. North to northeasterly low-level flow will lead to slightly cooler temperatures, in the lower 80s for inland areas and 70s near the lakeshore. While a few diurnally driven showers and storms can't be ruled out on Saturday, upper level ridging expands across the central CONUS over the weekend into early next week which should lead to mainly dry conditions into the first part of next week with temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. Given we will be on the northeast periphery of the ridge we will have to monitor the potential for thunderstorm complexes rounding the ridge across the broader region toward midweek. Petr && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - Period of showers, isolated storm, Thursday morning with better chances for showers/storms Thursday afternoon/evening. High pressure will result in a generally quiet day weather wise with FEW to SCT VFR skies. Winds will gradually increase through the morning with speeds around 10-12 kts this afternoon. In fact, an occasional mid to upper teen kt gust cannot be ruled out this afternoon. Heading into tonight, winds will ease into the 6-8 kt range with increasing clouds as a disturbance dives towards the area out of MN and WI. While a line of showers and thunderstorms will be drifting southward towards northern IL tonight, the expectation is for this line to weaken prior to reaching the terminals. However, there is a chance 20-30% chance that some showers reach RFD late tonight into Thursday morning. Additionally, there is also the potential for the decaying showers/storms to push an outflow boundary into the area that could result in a brief period of breezy (20-22 kt) winds particularly at RFD. That said, there has been some guidance hinting at the idea that some showers (and perhaps an isolated storm) try to redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary Thursday morning. While forecast soundings don't look terrible from an instability and moisture perspective, the large spread in guidance on coverage makes confidence low as to whether or not anything will materialize and/or reach the terminals. For now did opt to include a VCSH mention at ORD and MDW Thursday morning to tease some activity around and allude to the low confidence on coverage. Regardless on what happens Thursday morning, a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected for Thursday afternoon and evening. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ001-INZ002- INZ010-INZ011. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  245 FXUS63 KSGF 081122 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 622 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less than 20% chance for isolated thunderstorms in south central Missouri this afternoon. Gusty winds to 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms. Most areas stay dry. - Rain chances increase to 40-70% Thursday night through Saturday. Slight risk for severe storms Thursday night. Marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall Thursday through the weekend. - Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 It's a clear and calm night this morning with temperatures in the low 70s. The surface low pressure system is moving east into the Ohio Valley and taking its cloud cover with it. Clear nighttime skies and mild temperatures with little to no wind will allow for the development of some patchy fog in south central Missouri during the early morning hours. Winds will slowly become southerly today as weak warm air advection returns. As the low to the east continues to produce its diurnal convection, it is possible some of the precipitation will make it into the southeastern reaches of the CWA this afternoon. This potential is low, and PoPs remain largely 20% or less. Otherwise, we'll enjoy mostly sunny skies with fair weather Cu today, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and light southwest winds. Lows will be a few degrees warmer tonight with the return to southerly flow, in the upper 60s our east to the mid 70s in the west. Slightly stronger winds overnight should preclude any fog risk tonight into tomorrow morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The breaking news of the forecast tonight is that central Missouri has been included in an upgrade to a Slight risk (2/5) for severe storms on Thursday by the SPC. As we transition into an upper level pattern characterized by zonal-ish flow with many embedded shortwaves and pockets of energy, a string of active weather begins to set up. Weakening showers and storms move in from the west early Thursday morning while a more robust system is expected to follow late Thursday night, which is responsible for the Slight risk. Short- term models and CAMs have come into better agreement on this solution over the last few runs. However, there still remains some uncertainty regarding how warm/unstable the airmass is able to become after morning precipitation moves through central Missouri. If cloud cover clears quickly and destabilization is maximized, the primary severe hazard would be damaging winds with a linear storm mode. The warmest days of the period will be Thursday and Friday, when some areas may see a heat index of 100 degrees or more. This signal returns again early to mid next week. Chances for thunderstorms continue for the next several days as southerly flow continues, shortwave energy traverses the high pressure to our southwest, and the ingredients come together each afternoon. Some days will see higher chances and better coverage than others; Friday and Saturday, PoPs are currently up to 60-70% in some areas while Sunday into early next week have a closer to 30-40% chance to see afternoon thunderstorms(as the high itself moves closer and suppresses convective activity). There is some risk for excessive rainfall for part or all of the area all the way through at least Sunday Temperatures stay pretty steady after Friday, with southerly flow and precipitation working to cancel out their affects. Highs will generally land in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026VFR conditions expected through the period with light surface winds and mostly clear skies. A short period of MVFR VIS for BBG this morning that will clear with the sunrise. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Nelson  324 FXUS61 KOKX 081125 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 725 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. Updated for 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Clearing conditions today will lead to a gradual warming trend through the end of the week. 2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday afternoon and evenings. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A wave of low pressure continues to push offshore this morning allowing for drier air to filter into the low levels. Dry conditions expected through Thursday morning. High pressure builds over the area today. Temperatures will start to warm, but still remain below average with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The high pressure will shift to the southeast and offshore on Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs reaching near seasonable levels in the lower to middle 80s. The warmest day of forecast period will likely be Friday. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s. Max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures/heat indices will be lower for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The forecast heat indices on Friday are below the 1 day heat advisory criteria (100-104 for any length of time). .KEY MESSAGE 2... A weak shortwave aloft is forecast to pass across the northeast on Thursday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is likely to set up across the area. The combination of these features supports the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Modeling has differed in the placement of the focus for convection, but current consensus indicates the highest probabilities across the southern half of the area including the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. Showers/storms that develop in the afternoon may gradually work east towards southern CT and Long Island in the evening. CAPE values are not too impressive with forecast soundings indicating 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE away from any sea breeze influence. 0-6km shear is weak with on average of about 20 kt. This should limit severe potential and SPC currently only has the area in a general thunderstorm risk for Day 2/Thursday. A slightly more amplified shortwave trough axis is expected to pass across the northeast on Friday. This system should drag a cold front through the area late Friday into Friday night. The system will bring potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. The latest model consensus brings the highest probabilities to areas north and west of the NYC metro. Shear is a bit stronger averaging around 25-30 kt with similar CAPE valued as Thursday. Specific details on any severe weather threat are uncertain since this is still 3 days out, but CSU MLP does indicate a marginal probability for a severe thunderstorm. PWATs are progged to range from 1.75-2.00 inches both days. Some lingering MVFR at KGON through about 12Z.It is too early to determine if there will be any flooding impacts and WPC currently does not have the area in an excessive rainfall outlook. However, given the high moisture content, any thunderstorm can produce heavy rainfall rates. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The ensemble mean synoptic pattern across the CONUS indicates ridging across the west and NW flow/troughing over the east and Western Atlantic. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds over the terminals today and heads offshore this evening. Some lingering MVFR at KGON through about 12Z. VFR. NNE to NE winds less than 10 kt will shift to the S/SW early Wednesday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday-Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday-Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet through 2 pm due to lingering 5-6 ft seas. Seas will diminish on all waters today with high pressure returning. A frontal system passes across the waters late Friday into Friday night. Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS/MW AVIATION...DBR MARINE...DS/MW  332 FXUS63 KEAX 081125 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather and Slight (2/4) risk for excessive rainfall mainly west of I-35 tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. - Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather Thursday evening for areas east of the KC metro. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. - Rain chances stick around through Sunday. Highest rainfall totals from today through Sunday are forecast to fall north of I-70 with a widespread 1-3" with localized higher amounts towards NE MO. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today will be one of the last dry days of the week with mostly sunny skies and highs reaching the lower 90s. Clouds to start to build in from NW to SE this evening ahead of our next disturbance. Guidance shows mid-level shortwave moving through the northern Plains late tonight which will generate an MCS. So far, the environment still looks better (lift and shear) over the NE/IA border just to our NW. Though, we do expect the MCS to clip our western counties Thursday morning as the MCS starts to dive south from SE NE. With this MCS, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. SPC has issued a Slight risk (1/5) for severe weather mostly just for Atchison co since the better lift will be closer to the front that'll be draped over NE/IA. A Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather has also been issued for areas mainly west of I-35 and north of the KC metro. WPC issued a Slight risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall over the NW portion of the state and a Marginal risk (1/4) for areas mostly along and west of Highway 65. The slight risk was likely issued because of the 1 hr flash flood guidance over that area as it'd only take 1-2"/hr rain rates to generate flash flooding. The ERO outlook encapsulates the areas that are the most likely to get clipped by the MCS early Thursday morning. The MCS will get most of its moisture from the LLJ overnight into Thursday. Once the LLJ decouples on Thursday morning, the MCS is expected to dissipate. Seems that the MCS gets caught up moving along the shortwave and pushes northeast through the rest of the state as it slowly dissipates. This will be one of those days where the morning convection will heavily influence the evening convection. Guidance has clouds sticking around until early afternoon which is why we've lowered the high temperatures on Thursday for areas mainly north of I-70 by a few degrees to account for the clouds impacting daytime highs. Areas south of the interstate may not be impacted by the morning convection and may stay less cloudy throughout the day. Those areas will also be closer to the warm front that'll be hanging out over AR and will likely experience more WAA. Heat index values will range from 100-104 degrees for those areas. If we can destabilize over NW MO, there could be a few pop-up thunderstorms initiating along the leftover MCS boundary near the KC metro by late afternoon. The question isn't if we can destabilize, it's where we're going to destabilize and where the boundary ends up stalling out for Thursday afternoon convection. Again, if NW MO can conjure up a proper environment, storms will start there. If not, storms may initiate a bit further east of the KC metro near the Highway 65 and I-70 intersection over north-central MO. Wherever these storms decide to initiate, they will signal the start of the next round of severe weather for our area. The MCS appears to get a boost from a surface low or shortwave of some sort on Thursday evening and that's when the system starts to get itself together. SPC has upgraded portions of the area to a Slight risk (2/5) for severe weather. The Slight risk covers a pretty large portion of the state and starts east of the KC metro and goes just south of Chillicothe down to Lebanon, east past St. Louis. We are expecting damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain to be the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. These individual storms will merge into an MCS and push east through the evening/overnight hours. Referring back to the most recent July 4th MCS that moved through the area, there were several counties that lost power with that storm system. With winds possibly close to that speed once again, have multiple ways to receive warnings ahead of any power outages that may occur and be prepared for nighttime severe weather. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The warm front lifts north for the weekend and the latest model guidance has it settling near I-70 for Friday through Sunday. This front, coupled with several vort maxima forecast to eject from the passing wave, will bring us a rainy weekend. Chances for rain are 30-60% for Friday with the highest chance for rain occurring overnight into Saturday. Saturday features a 30-40% chance for rain for most of the day and Sunday has a 15-30% chance for rain with chances decreasing through the day. Due to the placement of the front, highest rainfall totals from today through Sunday are forecast to fall north of I-70 with a widespread 1-3" with localized higher amounts towards NE MO. The rain/clouds moving in this weekend will help to keep temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 80s. With the start of next week expected to be dry, high temperatures are forecast get back into the mid 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 TAF sites will remain at VFR for most of the day with clear skies and variable winds. Showers and thunderstorms move in overnight after 06z. Winds turn southwesterly tonight and gust near 10 knots. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Williams  411 FXUS63 KFSD 081127 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 627 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated showers and storms continue through mid morning. Although severe risk is low, an isolated wind gust as high as 60 mph is possible, mainly along US Highway 14 through 4 AM. - Scattered storms return this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are possible along/southeast of a Lake Andes to Sioux Falls to Jeffers line. Main threats are strong winds to 65 mph and hail to quarter size. - High temperatures rise into the 90s toward 100 degrees this weekend and into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A muggy and warm start to this Wednesday with temperatures/dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds are elevated enough to preclude any fog development. Elevated storms are expanding in coverage along the strengthening LLJ. Main severe risk through the next couple of hours remains along the US Hwy 14 corridor where ample DCAPE exists. Main threat would be a wind gust to 60 mph through 4 AM CDT. Biggest question for later today is exactly where the boundary ends up, as it will aid in for our later day storm development. Although we'll likely have some cloud cover around, we should recover back into the upper 80s and lower 90s south of I-90. With dew points in the lower 70s, should have modest instability as the cap erodes through the afternoon. Greatest severe risk is across northeastern NE and northwestern IA, where a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been introduced. Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk remains along and south from a Lake Andes to Sioux Falls to Jeffers line. Main threats are going to be wind gusts to 65 mph as LL lapse rates and DCAPE increase and quarter sized hail. Potential limiting factor for hail is the 0-6km shear values around 20 kts, although these increase to near 30 kts by the evening. Isolated activity may linger in our southern forecast area through the early overnight hours. Otherwise, mostly dry weather is expected with slightly cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet conditions persist this afternoon with high temperatures warming to the mid to upper 80s and low 90s. Latest satellite and surface obs show a , outflow boundary from morning storms that is set up along from Huron South Dakota to De Smet South Dakota, to Canby Minnesota. The main effective boundary is also visible on satellite well northwest of the area. These boundaries will serve as the areas for new thunderstorms to develop on later this afternoon as a mid level wave interacts with the boundaries. Large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging winds to 70 mph will be the main hazards. While the tornado threat will be mostly north and west of the area, a local/isolated tornado threat is possible along the boundary as the mean wind is oriented parallel to it, allowing for a longer resonance time for a storm to ingest the boundary driven helicity. These storms look to develop later this afternoon around 5 pm or later as the mid level wave catches up to the boundary. A second round of showers and some storms will develop across the Black Hills this afternoon and push eastwards. These storms will cross the state of South Dakota and get into locations east river this evening. The environment does not look all that favorable as less moisture (and associated instability) will be available in this area. At the same time, vertical shear will also be weaker in this same area as well. While the strengthening low level jet could keep elevated showers and isolated storms going, any storm that persists into the forecast area is not expected to be strong to severe Any chance for a strong to severe storm willcome to an end by 3 am or a little earlier. Though these showers may persist through the forecast area overnight. Latest guidance shows these showers continuing to persist throughout the day on Wednesday. This will bring some cloud cover to the area which will keep temperatures just a little bit cooler. As the same time, the previously mentioned boundary will be sliding southwards through the area. This boundary looks to slide just far enough to the south that additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms could develop on it. Latest hi-res guidance shows these storms developing across parts of northwest Iowa tomorrow afternoon before exiting the area in the evening. While this looks to be the consensus amongst the guidance, some uncertainty regarding how far south the boundary gets remains. If the boundary gets hung up, then severe storm chances could increase during the daylight hours tomorrow. As of now, the latest REFS shows a 20-30% chance for reflectivity values to exceed 40 dBZ. Thus, think the most likely scenario for tomorrow is for elevated showers and weak storms push through the majority of the area. The exception will be portions of northwest Iowa, generally near and south/southeast of highway-60 where a pre-frontal trough where enough surface heating could result in a few severe storms during the afternoon timeframe. Will keep an eye on this potential. Any chance for strong to severe storms will come to an end during the evening hours as the surface boundary and pre-frontal trough push southeast of the area. Thursday looks to be a pleasant Summer day as high temperatures warm to the 80s and winds stay light out of the north/northeast. High temperatures look to warm to 80s while humidity values remain modest. There looks to be enough instability to develop a few showers to an isolated thunderstorm. Any storm that does develop is not expected to be strong to severe as vertical shear profiles will be weak. As of now, only have a 20-40% chance for these showers to weak storms to develop. Chances for rain will be trending downwards into the evening hours as the boundary layer stabilizes. Friday will see continued near seasonable temperatures with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Highs will begin to warm as an upper level ridge begins to build on Saturday. Highs will warm a bit more to the mid 80s to mid 90s Saturday afternoon. The ridge looks to build up over the Rocky Mountains on Sunday before quickly translating to over the Northern Plains by early next week. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance places the peak of the ridge up to 597 to 600 dam. This will result in much hotter temperatures returning to the area with high temperatures into the 90s to potentially the low 100s. The ensembles support this as they show a broad 40-100% chance for high temperatures to exceed 90F and a 40-70% chance for highs to break 100F. The highest probabilities lie across central South Dakota. With the center of the ridge places directly over the Northern Plains, the upper level jet and associated gradients will be north of the area. This looks to leave mostly dry and hot conditions Sunday through Tuesday at this time. Humid conditions will accompany the heat so heat headlines will be possible. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An area of SHRA/TSRA continues to move east across southwestern MN and IA, with some gusts around 25 knots and MVFR conditions. Additional showers are moving east across portions of SD, with some lower conditions, including isolated IFR and lower stratus toward K1D8 - think that this will largely stay away from the area, but may see some lowering along US Hwy 14. Additional scattered showers/storms are expected this afternoon and evening. Confidence in timing andnorthern extent is lower than average, so have omitted mention from KFSD. Could see some MVFR conditions with SHRA/TSRA later today. Isolated stronger storms could produce wind gusts in excess of 50 knots and quarter size hail. Most of the area and period outside the concerns above should remain at least lower end VFR. Some guidance hints at lower stratus toward the end of the period but confidence is too low to include at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...SG  366 FXUS64 KTSA 081126 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Isolated to widely scattered storm Wednesday - Thursday with localized downburst winds possible. - Heat builds Wednesday into Thursday and heat advisories may be needed. - Storm chances trend higher Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures likely near to slightly below normal through this same time frame. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The weak frontal zone that currently extends through far SE OK will lift northward through the day Wednesday. Dewpoints will trend higher for most locals by afternoon and heat index values of 100 to 105 will be common. A brief window of heat advisory criteria may develop but confidence is low in both extent and duration at this time. Isolated afternoon storms are likely Wednesday afternoon most anywhere across the forecast area. Coverage likely remains low but will include mentionable precip chances to reflect the potential. Stronger storms will be capable of downburst winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Stronger wave moves into central Plains Wednesday night with the low level jet responding with a corridor of high based convection possibly spreading into NE OK late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The veered low level flow and potential for lower dewpoints to mix eastward should result in the hottest temperatures of the week by Thursday afternoon. Heat advisory headlines appear likely at this time. Afternoon storm potential Thursday varies amongst model solutions but a low chance across northern locations appears warranted. This corridor will also be nearer slightly stronger flow so an uptick in severe potential could develop pending storm development. An MCS is expected to develop Thursday night across the High Plains and spread eastward toward the forecast area Thursday night into early Friday. This scenario carries uncertainties typical with MCS evolution, but the pattern is favorable and higher precip chances will be shown for northern portions of the forecast area. The pattern evolution over the weekend generally favors building ridging over the western CONUS which then becomes centered over the northern Plains by early next week. This keeps the local region on the periphery of the the upper ridge and allows for daily precip chances with temps near to possibly slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Few to broken mid clouds should remain common through this afternoon over the CWA. A slight chance of storms is also forecast through this afternoon as a frontal boundary lifts northeast through the region. With isolated coverage and uncertainty of impacting any one terminal will continue to keep TAFs dry at this time. Any convection that can move over a terminal will be capable of gusty winds and brief heavy rains. Mid clouds this evening should begin to dissipate ahead of increasing high clouds overnight tonight from a disturbance moving across the central Plains. A slight chance of showers/storms returns late in the period for parts of northeast Oklahoma. Winds through the period start out variable and become south to southwesterly during the day today. Winds aloft increase tonight and will carry low level wind shear for all TAF sites. VFR conditions should persist through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 97 78 99 80 / 20 10 20 20 FSM 96 76 98 79 / 20 10 20 0 MLC 96 78 98 80 / 20 10 10 0 BVO 95 76 97 77 / 0 20 20 20FYV 92 74 94 76 / 20 10 20 10 BYV 91 72 94 76 / 20 0 20 10 MKO 95 77 97 79 / 20 0 20 0 MIO 93 74 95 77 / 0 10 20 20 F10 96 76 97 78 / 20 0 20 0 HHW 94 76 96 77 / 20 0 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20  537 FXUS63 KLMK 081130 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 730 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds this afternoon and evening. * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today, an upper low, embedded in a weak upper trough, is expected to get picked up by zonal flow. Stronger upper flow remains well north of the region which is causing the Lower Ohio Valley to lack meaningful wind energy, but we continue to have plenty of moisture with precipitable water values between 1.8-2" covering most of our CWA. Our top row of Indiana counties is in an area with slightly less moisture with PWATs between 1.6-1.8". This afternoon, diurnal warming will once again increase MLCAPE instability to between 1,300 to 1,800 J/kg which might be slightly less than what we saw yesterday, but we can expected scattered slow moving showers and thunderstorms to pose an isolated flooding threat for any area that gets stuck under a heavy downpour. Highs are expected to reach into the 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Tonight, we start to see the pattern change as what was the upper low begins to move east out of the area. This will begin the movement of the higher PWATs eastward. The high PWATs won't make it out of the area before Thursday morning, but any remaining showers and thunderstorms will begin dissipating as we lose diurnal heating. Patchy fog will once again be possible as temperatures fall. Lows are expected to drop to either side of 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday, as the remnants of the former upper low gets carried off to the east, PWATs try to drop below 1.5". The day might not be completely dry, but any diurnally driven chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely be more isolated than they have been. As a surface low begins approaching the Lower Ohio Valley from the west, an increasing pressure gradient and added WAA will help drive slightly warmer temperatures, closer to 90 along and west of Interstate 65. Thursday evening into the early night, there is a chance that a system will continue moving east from the Plains and make it's way into the Lower Ohio Valley. Even though shear over the region is low, higher instability values could help an already developed system to sustain itself. This could bring a threat of strong to severe winds before weakening as the system moves off to the east later in the night. Friday into the weekend, a messy west to east oriented boundary is expected to set up and drop south through the Ohio Valley. This is expected to bring a return of PWAT values over 2". There could be some marginal instability at times, but overall the severe threat looks fairly low at this point. The main concern is expected to be flooding. Unlike the earlier activity Thursday evening which is expected to be quick moving, some of the later activity along the boundary Friday and Saturday could possibly be slower moving and see multiple rounds of heavy showers causing increased chances for flash flooding. If we get breaks in rounds of rain, the region will see less issues than if areas don't get a break from continuous showers. Early next week, precipitation chances look to finally drop as moisture gets pushed south of the CWA. High pressure behind the front is expected to bring clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures in the low 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 726 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current satellite shows areas of fog and low stratus across portions of KY and southern Indiana, affecting LEX, RGA, and HNB and within close proximity to BWG. Fog and low stratus will burn off quickly after sunrise, so expect VFR conditions to prevail after 13Z. Latest surface analysis shows a stationary boundary draped across KY, which combined with diurnal heating and abundant moisture will likely result in another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Expect torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning in and around any stronger cells. Winds will be light, outside of storms, predominately from the S to SW. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...CG  564 FXUS66 KMTR 081130 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A warming trend today through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Today and tonight) A 500 mb high pressure system centered over the southwestern states is forecast to continue shifting essentially westward to southern California and northern Mexico over the next 24 hours. A 500 mb trough of low pressure is over the eastern Pacific. Onshore winds will continue to usher stratus inland through morning, with diurnal surface warming mixing out much of the stratus by late morning and afternoon. Daytime highs will be in the 60s coastside, 60s/70s bayside to the 80s/90s inland. Stratus returns tonight. Lows will be in the 50s except lower to mid 60s at higher elevations tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) The aforementioned high pressure system will be nearly stationary on Thursday then it'll shift northeastward Friday through early next week. Daytime highs will be coolest along the coast with 60s, 60s/70s bayside and in the 80s/90s inland to the lower 100s far inland mainly over the southern interior. Night-time lows will cool to the 50s/60s. Southerly winds aloft on the periphery of the high will rather quickly transport mid-level sub-tropical/tropical moisture to our forecast area beginning Saturday evening and night. There are hints in the GFS for example that a mid level moisture gradient to our southwest will straddle the coastal waters and offshore waters late Saturday/Sunday then again Tuesday. The intrusion of dry air above lifting moist air parcels/layers tilt the lapse rates much more steeply leading to convection. There may be a temporary increase in mid level instability traversing our forecast area early in the week. A sign for minimal potential, at this time at least GFS forecast soundings are indicating essentially no convective potential (mucape) over our forecast area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 411 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 MVFR at all terminals except KSTS, which is IFR, and these conditions should persist through the morning until stratus begins to retreat later this morning. The one exception may be KMRY that may drop into IFR, however a weak otter eddy appears to be maintaining MVFR attm. Vicinity of SFO...High confidence in MVFR ceilings to prevail until lifting by early afternoon. Breezy onshore flow will persist through today and tonight before easing after midnight, however shouldn't be as strong as yesterday. High confidence on MVFR ceilings developing later tonight with only moderate confidence in IFR ceilings. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...KMRY continues to hover between MVFR/IFR with guidance suggesting IFR ceilings are possible between now and mid-morning. However, a weak circulation of the Monterey Peninsula appears to be holding the low MIFR ceilings in place. Moderate confidence that KMRY remains MVFR through the day but subsequent updates may hint at a short window of VFR mid-afternoon today. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 411 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Fresh to strong northwest breezes will continue across the coastal waters through the remainder ofthe work week, with rough seas building to 8-12 feet. A low, long period southwest swell will persist through Friday as well, easing into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday and continue into this weekend. This will increase fire weather concerns slightly as fuels rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. Given the combination of potential for dry lightning and dry fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest information. && .BEACHES... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  694 FXUS61 KPBZ 081131 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 731 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 12Z aviation discussion, and to remove mention of morning showers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Morning fog, then mainly dry with limited convection potential today 2) Unsettled pattern through Friday, with lesser chances for showers/storms over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Earlier isolated showers have faded. Lingering low-level moisture underneath an inversion has led to another round of fog and stratus, similar to recent mornings. This should mix out through the morning. Expect most of the day to be dry for much of the area today under flat ridging and capping warmth aloft. Surface convergence near a weakening surface boundary could result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially east of Pittsburgh. Precipitable water is progged to be lower than recent days, ranging from 1.2 to 1.4 inches east of Pittsburgh, though the flow aloft is weak. Expect any flood potential to be very low and localized. KEY MESSAGE 2... A shortwave trough is expected to advance out of the Midwest tonight, approaching and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region late tonight into Thursday. An increase in showers and thunderstorms is expected. The most numerous coverage is expected to be south of Pittsburgh, where the best moisture and upper level support is progged. Shear is expected to be around 20kt, with ML CAPE ranging from around 500 j/kg north of I-80, to around 1200 j/kg south of I-70. This should result in a limited potential for severe weather. Another, stronger shortwave is progged for a Friday passage. Maintained categorical POPs for showers and thunderstorms. Instability should be limited with existing cloud cover through the day, though precipitable water is expected to increase. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Current NBM probabilities of 1 inch of rain range from 35 to near 50 percent. A surface boundary is progged to set up across the Lower Ohio Valley on Saturday into Sunday. This will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast, with the highest POPs south of PIT. The overall severe weather and flood potential is expected to be low over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low fog and stratus has brought IFR to LIFR conditions this morning with the worst of the restrictions in areas that received rain in the past 24 hours. With mixing, expect restrictions will erode shortly after 12z for most but may hang on an hour or two longer for FKL and DUJ. The CU rule and model soundings indicate a scattered to broken VFR cumulus layer is likely through the day. Weak surface convergence and aid in lift from orographic ascent could produce a few showers and storms east of Pittsburgh, but coverage should overall be less today than the previous few days as warmer mid-level air puts a lid on updraft strength. Maintained a PROB30 -TSRA mention for LBE, MGW and DUJ for this potential. Elsewhere, forcing looks to be too minimal to support any development. Light west-northwest wind today will relax to light and variable overnight tonight with some cirrus. A shortwave will track up through the Ohio Valley and likely spark off additional showers after midnight in northern West Virginia primarily confining impacts to MGW. Expect that we will see another round of fog develop in the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning with the light wind, remnant ground moisture, and scattering of clouds, again most dense where rain falls today. Confidence is lower for MGW even if rain does fall there today as additional showers overnight would negate dense fog development. Outlook... Scattered showers and thunderstorms could bring periodicrestrictions again on Thursday. More widespread showers and possible thunderstorms are expected Friday with a crossing shortwave. Additional morning fog and stratus is possible through the weekend, with shower/thunderstorm potential mainly south of PIT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM/CL AVIATION...MLB  766 FXUS64 KJAN 081133 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 633 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels of heat returns late this week and persist into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today through next Tuesday...A mid/upper level trough residing about the region will gradually weaken and become absorbed in quasi-zonal flow across the country. This will allow sub-tropical ridging to increase its presence across the Lower Mississippi River Valley late this week and into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure centered to the southeast of the CWA will maintain southerly flow across the region, thus keeping humid conditions across the area. With the presence of the trough nearby today and Thursday, decent chances for diurnally driven convection will remain in the forecast. Convection will linger into the evening hours, before finally dissipating as daytime heating wanes. Gusty winds, locally heavy downpours, and frequent lightning will be possible with the most intense storms. As the aforementioned sub-tropical high builds in Friday into the weekend, rain chances will lessen a bit but still be confined to mainly the afternoon and early evening hours. With highs topping out in the low to middle 90s each afternoon and dew points in the 70s, afternoon heat index values will climb to around 105F in many locations Thursday into the at least Saturday. If this trend continues in future model data, a "Heat Advisory" may be needed for portions of the area late this week and into the weekend. Better rain chances currently look to return to the forecast at the beginning of next week. This is due to a frontal boundary that's progged to sink south into the region. If this scenario indeed verifies, the widespread showers and storms over the area will bring an end to the heat stress across the forecast area for at least a few days. /19/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Patchy fog will be possible near HEZ, resulting in IFR/LIFR flight conditions until 14Z. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions with southwest winds between 5-8 kts will prevail through the period. Winds are expected to shift to the south after 00Z Thursday. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 92 73 92 74 / 20 10 30 10 Meridian 93 73 93 74 / 30 10 40 10 Vicksburg 92 75 93 76 / 40 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 94 75 94 75 / 20 20 40 10 Natchez 93 75 94 75 / 30 10 20 0 Greenville 92 74 94 77 / 30 10 40 10 Greenwood 92 74 94 76 / 30 20 50 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/SW  712 FXUS65 KABQ 081132 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 532 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week. A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day. A low risk of severe storms exists on Thursday and Friday across northeast NM. - Hotter temperatures through the weekend will result in a moderate heat risk across lower elevation locations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 00Z RAOBs over the western U.S. showed the center of a 596dm H5 high between Flagstaff and ABQ while a 60-80kt jet stream enters northern CA and NV. The monsoon moisture plume is draped from southwest to northeast across NM where PWATs are slightly below climo for early July. Surface dewpoints are still only in the 40s in most areas. The moisture plume will rotate clockwise today and become compressed into central and southern NM while the upper level jet approaches the Great Basin. Storms will develop in the high terrain around noon then move erratically south and east into nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset. The stronger cells will be capable of producing small footprints with rainfall amounts >0.50". Showers will linger into late this evening followed by gradually clearing skies overnight. By Thursday, drier westerly flow will filter into northern and western NM as the upper level speed max moves into southern UT. Max temps will approach 100F around Farmington and within parts of the middle RGV. A Heat Advisory may be needed. The majority of storms will focus over the southern high terrain and high plains of eastern NM. Any showers that develop north and west of ABQ will be drier with strong outflows and little to no rainfall. A few cells farther south will still be capable of producing rainfall amounts >0.50" with more erratic steering flow expected. There is a moderate chance for a few storms to develop on the Raton Ridge Thursday afternoon then move southeast across the northeast plains into Thursday night. SPC has a small 'Slight Risk' area given the stronger shear with the approaching jet max. There is a greater chance for a more organized area of storms over eastern CO and western KS Thursday night, which helps force a moist boundary southwest into northeast NM for Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday is expected to be similar to Thursday but with greater coverage of storms across northeast NM and slightly hotter temps in the RGV. The setup appears more favorable for storms to develop along the Raton Ridge then become strong to severe while moving southeast across northeast NM. MOS guidance peaks on Friday with the hottest temps so far this season at ABQ, so confidence on a Heat Advisory is higher. Convection over northeast NM is shown forcing low level moisture even farther west to the central mt chain Friday night. Meanwhile, the H5 high center is beginning to take shape again near the Four Corners into Saturday. Another round of Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the RGV and western NM. Moderate precip chances focus along and east of the central mt chain with slow north to south steering flow. These storms force even greater low level moisture west across the RGV and into western NM Sunday. The upper high will then eject northeast into the northern Great Plains by Sunday and open the door to a rich tap of monsoon moisture over NM thru Wednesday. NBM QPF probs are showing increasing chances for higher daily precip in several areas, particularly southern and western NM. However, there is still uncertainty with the placement and strength of the upper high and trajectory of the deeper moisture. There is potential for a large area of dry air near and above 500mb to advect westward beneath the upper level ridge which would limit storm coverage over NM. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated to scattered SHRA/TS will develop on the high terrain between 12pm and 3pm then move erratically south and east into nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset. Direct hits will be capable of outflow wind gusts near 40KT, brief moderate to heavy rain, patchy BLDU, and lightning strikes. SHRA will linger over central and eastern NM thru this evening followed by partial clearing overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Storms with small footprints of wetting rainfall will occur again today around the high terrain, the nearby highlands of central NM, and more of northeast NM. Storm motion will be slow and erratic to the south and east. Any storms across western NM will be drier in nature with strong outflow winds and little to no rainfall. Even drier westerly flow will spread across northwest NM Thursday and Friday with several hours of single digit humidity and northwest breezes each afternoon. A few hours of near critical fire weather will occur. However, winds are the limiting factor despite ERC values above the 90th percentile. Meanwhile, more storms with wetting rainfall are still possible for northeast NM and the southern high terrain Thursday and Friday. Moisture will surge west to the central mt chain Saturday with increasing coverage of storms with wetting rainfall. Outflow from this activity will force low level moisture farther west toward the AZ border Sunday. Storm chances are trending higher for southern and western NM Sunday thru Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 98 64 98 61 / 0 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 93 50 93 48 / 10 20 5 0 Cuba............................ 92 58 92 58 / 20 10 5 0 Gallup.......................... 92 56 93 57 / 30 10 5 0 El Morro........................ 87 56 89 58 / 50 10 10 0 Grants.......................... 91 56 93 58 / 40 20 20 0 Quemado......................... 88 58 90 60 / 70 50 10 10 Magdalena....................... 89 64 92 66 / 40 20 40 20 Datil........................... 85 59 88 61 / 60 20 20 10 Reserve......................... 93 54 96 54 / 60 50 40 20 Glenwood........................ 97 58 100 58 / 40 20 40 20 Chama........................... 84 49 85 49 / 30 20 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 88 63 89 64 / 40 10 30 0 Pecos........................... 90 56 92 57 / 40 20 20 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 55 87 54 / 20 20 20 0 Red River....................... 76 48 77 47 / 30 20 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 81 42 82 41 / 50 20 20 0 Taos............................ 88 53 90 53 / 20 10 20 0 Mora............................ 85 54 86 54 / 40 20 40 5 Espanola........................ 96 61 97 61 / 10 10 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 90 61 91 62 / 10 20 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 59 94 59 / 10 20 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 66 99 66 / 10 20 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 66 99 67 / 10 20 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 65 101 66 / 10 20 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 67 100 67 / 10 20 10 0 Belen........................... 99 64 101 65 / 10 20 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 99 65 100 66 / 10 20 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 62 100 63 / 10 20 10 5 Corrales........................ 99 66 101 66 / 10 20 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 98 63 100 64 / 10 20 10 5 Placitas........................ 94 67 96 67 / 10 20 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 98 67 100 67 / 10 20 10 0 Socorro......................... 101 71 102 72 / 20 20 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 62 92 62 / 10 20 10 5 Tijeras......................... 92 62 94 62 / 10 20 10 5 Edgewood........................ 92 59 94 60 / 20 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 54 95 55 / 20 30 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 89 57 90 57 / 30 20 20 10 Mountainair..................... 92 60 94 61 / 20 40 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 90 61 92 62 / 20 60 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 93 67 95 69 / 10 40 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 86 61 87 63 / 30 30 50 20 Capulin......................... 88 54 86 53 / 40 20 70 20 Raton........................... 92 53 91 52 / 50 20 40 20 Springer........................ 93 55 92 55 / 30 10 50 10 Las Vegas....................... 89 56 90 56 / 30 10 40 10 Clayton......................... 96 63 94 61 / 20 20 40 40 Roy............................. 92 60 90 59 / 40 20 30 20 Conchas......................... 100 65 99 64 / 20 30 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 96 64 96 64 / 20 20 30 20 Tucumcari....................... 100 69 100 67 / 0 20 10 30 Clovis.......................... 97 67 98 67 / 0 5 10 10 Portales........................ 98 69 100 69 / 0 5 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 98 68 99 68 / 0 10 20 20 Roswell......................... 99 71 101 72 / 0 10 10 10 Picacho......................... 94 65 96 66 / 0 20 30 20 Elk............................. 91 62 92 64 / 5 10 50 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42  864 FXUS63 KGRB 081137 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 637 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms along with heavy rain possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across central and east-central Wisconsin. Damaging winds and localized flooding will be the main threats, but small hail and an isolated tornado are also possible. - Continue to monitor the potential for excessive heat early next week as high temperatures rise into the low to middle 90s on Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A complex of thunderstorms across Minnesota was working into northwest WI early this morning. There have been a few warnings with this complex so far. This complex is expected to move into north-central WI between 09z-12z and across far northeast WI after 12z. Several models continue to show convection developing south of the current cluster of storms towards 12z that could impact locations south of Highway 29. Previous forecast had pops, thus not much change in this area. Later this morning into the afternoon, several solutions to contend with that leave some questions in how widespread severe weather will be. This was seen in the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Outlook that has shifted the Slight Risk (Level 2) is little further south. The latest HRRR would support the morning convection south of Highway 29 with another complex developing along and south of the Highway 29 corridor later this afternoon, between 2 pm and 4 pm west of the Fox Valley, and from 4 pm to 7 pm for Green Bay and the Fox Valley east to the lakeshore. Bufkit soundings indicated 1,000 to 2,000 J/KG of CAPE and 0-6 km shear values around 30 knots to support severe storms. Strong/damaging winds and heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding are the main risk. Small hail and an isolated tornado are also possible. Showers and scattered storms will continue tonight, ending across the north late. Showers and a few storms will continue across east-central WI through the night into Thursday. The chances of showers and storms continue into Thursday afternoon across central and east-central WI, although severe weather is not expected. Dry conditions expected this weekend into early next week. 500mb ridge building across the central United States early next week will bring well above normal temperatures along the potential for excessive heat and heat related impacts as high temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to middle 90s. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers and storms, mainly north of Highway 29, were moving across the area early this morning. To the south of Highway 29, isolated showers and storms were noted at the 12z TAF issues. This trend should continue through mid morning. Additional showers and storms are expected to later this morning into this evening. Strong or severe storms are possible with strong/damaging winds across central and east-central WI, especially along and south of Highway 29. For tonight, rain showers and a few storms should continue. The rain should end across the far while lingering Thursday across central and east-central WI. Areas of fog and low stratus deck in the IFR category is anticipated across much of the area. There is a chance of showers and storms over central and east-central WI into Thursday afternoon. CIGS should gradually improve on Thursday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Eckberg AVIATION.......Eckberg  848 FXUS65 KCYS 081136 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 536 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and Thursday with heavy rainfall, hail, and strong gusty winds possible. - A ridge builds late in the long term, drying the area out and developing Red Flag and potential heat advisory conditions through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 405 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A small plume of showers is slowly weakening as it moves eastward along I-80 this morning. Only a trace to couple hundredths is expected from this shower, so no beneficial rain is expected unfortunately. Another shortwave is expected to push across the region this afternoon. Hi-res models have initiation starting around 20z but the majority of the forcing won't arrive until about 00z in the form of lobes of strong vorticity. RAP has 3CAPE around 5-600 joules with MUCAPE around 1100 joules. The models maintain a rather straight hodograph for the mid-levels while the sounding indicates a rather dry lower level. This environment best suits gusty winds and large sized hail. With 0-6 Bulk shear around 50-60 kts in the Panhandle there's enough shear to separate the storms updraft and downdraft for sustained intensity. Given the setup of a shortwave with accompanying vortmaxes the HRRR and NAM-nest are probably the most reliable given their history with this setup. Both models have thunderstorms occurring in two phases with the weaker set of thunderstorms happening first. The two models diverge in the second phase as the HRRR has all the stronger storms developing north of our forecast area then dropping south into the Panhandle from South Dakota for a classic Dawes county clipper scenario. THe Nam-nest has all the forcing staying over our area from 00z to 06z and the Panhandle getting all the storms. So it will be interesting to see where the forcing sets up for our thunderstorms to utilize. SPC has the far-eastern portion of Wyoming and the all of the Panhandle in a slight risk for this afternoon with hail and high winds as the main threat. The models have the storms ending between 06z to 08z however the intermountain west looks to lose the shear closer to 04z so our severe potential window looks to be from 22z to 04z or 2pm to 10pm tomorrow. Thursday looks to be a wash rinse repeat of today. The same ingredients are present however the bulk shear looks to be a tiny bit weaker Thursday afternoon. However, the Panhandle does receive more a little bit more moisture at the surface Thursday compared to today. This means the storms will have a more energy to utilize but with weaker shear. Thunderstorms look to initiate around 21z again and last until 04z. Given the weaker shear these thunderstorms are more likely to be pulsy in nature with decent microburst potential but also able to produce some severe hail when they pulse up. Given the history with this section of the Intermountain west, Severe winds will be possible with collapsing cores and in the stratiform region of the storms with accumulating hail with a couple quarters thrown in there. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 405 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday, the upper level pattern starts to change as an upper level ridge starts to build around the Intermountain West and expand into the Central plains. The global models have come into an agreement about the ridge becoming pretty stout and will dry us out possible through the start of the next work week. NAEFS has most of Wyoming and the Panhandle in the 90th and above percentile through the end of next week. It will be HOT and Dry in the long term for a possible extended Red Flag warning for our entire CWA due to the already dry fuels and low RH's. However, the important wind component may not show up while under this broad ridge until Sunday as a shortwave looks to give us some breezy conditions worthy of a Red Flag. Temperatures will rise into the 80's and 90's this weekend with potential 90's and 100's by the start of the next work week. Staying cool will be a must and if you have to work outside may sure to take plenty of breaks and snack between meals so your body can retain some electrolytes that will be lost from sweating. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 536 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 There are some low clouds and some patchy fog developing in near KAIA to temporarily impact ceiling and visibility. Patchy fog is also developing near KCDR to temporarily reduce visibilities. However the fog/low stratus should burn off relatively quick with this summer sun. Showers and Thunderstorms look to occur in two phases today for the Wyoming terminals. First phase looks to start the shower development around 19z for klar and 20z for KCYS. The second phase looks have thunderstorms moving through after 23z and continuing through 03z. The panhandle is expected to have thunderstorms between 0z and 04z this evening. Models do want to have some thunderstorms drop south over KCDR around 04z for the classic Dawes clipper. All thunderstorm activity looks to end around 06z. A nocturnal inversion looks to setup around 07z causing the winds to be light and variable until 12z tomorrow. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...MM  894 FXUS63 KMQT 081138 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 738 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms pass over the UP today through Thursday AM, with the highest rain totals expected in the south half. There is a Slight Risk (category 2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall and up to a Marginal Risk (Category 1 of 5) of severe weather. - Temperatures will remain closer to normal through the mid- week, and start to increase by the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The going forecast remains on track this morning. Similar to last night, MRMS reflectivity mosaic shows a rather robust line of thunderstorms draped across MN, but the nearest detected lightning is still nearly 100 miles WSW of Ironwood at 06Z, so impacts to the UP prior to 12Z are looking minimal. RAP analysis shows mostly zonal flow from Quebec to the Dakotas at the base of a deep closed low over Hudson Bay. A subtle shortwave over the western Dakotas will pivot through this zonal flow and be the forcing supporting not only the ongoing disturbed weather upstream, but also showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday morning. The biggest chance in the 00Z HREF for today's rainfall is the southward shift of the heaviest axis of total QPF by about a tier of counties. The zone with mean QPF accumulation over 0.5 inches is now limited to the MI/WI state line and the counties bordering Lake Michigan, with Menominee County and western Delta County seeing the highest chances at over an inch of rain at 40-60%. This has resulted in the WPC Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall shifting to just covering the south-central UP. Also covering the south-central UP is a Marginal Risk of severe weather as instability has trended upwards somewhat with HREF mean SBCAPE climbing to 750-1000 J/kg in the south-central with 30-40 kt of mean 0-6km shear and around 100 m2s2 of 0-3km SRH. As the surface trough struggles to depart from the Upper Great Lakes, some light rain showers may (~30% chance) over the south-central and Lake Michigan-adjacent communities into Thursday morning. A quieter pattern then settles in for the late week and beyond as robust ridging sets up over the central CONUS (500mb heights above the 99th percentile of climatology over the Northern Plains by Sunday). This puts the UP in northwesterly flow aloft, which will initially keep temperatures close to normal, but as the upper ridge gets closer to the UP by early next week, the high heights lead to warmer temperatures, with the NBM deterministic even calling for 90s for the typical warm spots on Monday. Precipitation forecasts are too widely spread to divert from the NBM with this forecast package. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Amended at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main story is the precipitation potential thanks to the Hudson Bay low shortwave approaching the region, which is expected to bring widespread periods of rain and thunderstorms throughout today and into Thursday. As flow becomes strongly zonal, this embedded wave brings vorticity maxes overspreading the CWA throughout today. Models agree that some form of upper level lift, possibly enhanced due to rear-right entrance region positioning, will be present, though the exact placement and timing of the trailing jet streak lobe differ. Embedded within this flow is an east-west equivalent potential temperature boundary at low and mid levels which propagates slowly through the area today, finally exiting southeast on Thursday midday. PWATs during this time frame are anomalously high: NAEFS ESAT table shows PWATs above the 90th percentile (1.5" - 1.75") covering the UP by 12Z today and persisting for nearly 24 hours, with locally higher amounts (above 1.75"). Given the moist atmosphere and forcing mechanisms present tomorrow, we are outlooked in the General Thunderstorms, Marginal, and Slight categories by SPC, and in the Marginal and Slight categories by WPC's ERO. However, HREF mean SBCAPE tops out at 500 J/kg only along WI border, and HRRR shear profiles appear weak to modest at best. Thus, with lower potential for severe storms, the main concern is somewhat large rain accumulations throughout Wednesday and into Thursday. NBM shows up to 55% probability of over 1" of rain falling over a 24-hour period between Wednesday and Thursday mornings, and 6-hour distributions show that most rain will fall in the overnight hours on Wednesday evening. Though higher-end totals are below flash flood guidance, training showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as the theta-E boundary aligns with flow aloft. Though flood watches are not issued at this time, this possibility accounts for the WPC's categorization of the UP within a Slight Risk. The area dries out by midday Thursday as high pressure moves back in behind the Hudson Bay low, and temperatures should be relatively close to climate normal. Friday marks the beginning of a large ridge building over the Great Plains and extending from the Sierra Mtns to the Appalachians. Anticyclonic mid-level flow sends warm toward the Upper Midwest, resulting in very warm temperatures by Sunday && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 731 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all sites, though conditions are forecast to deteriorate throughout the period as multiple rounds of -SHRA and up to 40 percent chances of -TSRA at SAW/IWD bring ceilings down to MVFR and IFR today. As chances of rain decrease or end altogether this evening, the remnant near-surface moisture from the preceding rainfall will bring chances of fog formation overnight. IWD and CMX are 40-60% likely to hit MVFR visibility but only around 30% likely of IFR or lower, so MVFR will be the prevailing category for this TAF, but if confidence increases, TEMPO or prevailing IFR or lower could be introduced. At SAW, confidence is higher in lower ceilings and visibility, with over 50% chances of IFR ceilings and nearly 50 percent chances of IFR visibility with 30-50% chances of LIFR, so a PROB30 group of lingering -SHRA will cover the LIFR with IFR prevailing. && .MARINE... Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Amended at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Light winds prevail on Lake Superior and the Bay of Green Bay through the period. Periods of rain and thunderstorms will be over the lake through Thursday morning. During this time, winds may be higher near outflow boundaries, though severe storms are not expected. As high pressure builds back in on Thursday, winds lay down through Saturday afternoon. Significant wave heights are expected to be less than 1 ft. Southwesterly flow picks up to 20 knots Sunday and Monday, with gusts to 25 knots and waves to 4 ft. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE...GS DISCUSSION...RE/GS AVIATION...GS MARINE...RE/GS  947 FXUS63 KBIS 081139 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 639 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures remain today, followed by a strong warming trend through the weekend. - Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. - Very hot this weekend and early next week, with daily high temperatures and maximum heat indices around 95 to 105. && .UPDATE... Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated showers continue over portions of northwest and central ND early this morning. Made some minor adjustments to pops to account for this. Stratus/fog has not been as forecast as was feared, but low ceilings and patchy fog do remain in a few areas this morning. Overall few changes needed for the early morning update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A broad quasi-zonal upper level flow will continue over the region through the remainder of the workweek, followed by significant upper level ridging over a large portion of the western and central Conus. This could bring a significant prolonged heatwave to western and central ND this weekend into early next week. Currently, the latest satellite imagery show a number of waves moving through the broad upper level flow. Latest radar shows an area of isolated showers situated over northwest ND. Patches of low stratus/fog have been noted under breaks of high level cirrus, but as of yet nothing widespread. As we head into the early morning hours guidance suggests, and it seems reasonable, given the low T/Td spreads we will see an increase in stratus and fog. Guidance does favor western and southern portions of the forecast area. For today, forecast soundings suggest instability will remain weak this morning. However with an approaching shortwave currently indicated over eastern Montana, there may be enough forcing to keep a mention of showers in the forecast. Soundings dry out this afternoon and mostly dry conditions are expected. Afternoon convection off the higher terrain in Wyoming and southeast Montana should remain south and east of the forecast area later today, but an evening thunderstorm can not be ruled out in the far southwest. Another wave tracking along the International Border may fire convection over central Montana, and if it holds together could move into far western ND towards daybreak Thursday. The severe threat by this time would be low. On Thursday, the aforementioned wave tracks across the state and a surface trough lingers over the area. It will become very unstable over western ND Thursday afternoon with RAP forecast MLCAPE values around 3000 J/Kg. Bulk shear is marginal, ranging from 25 to 35 knots. Forcing for ascent will be modest with only weak impulses moving through a slowly building ridge. If there is enough forcing to overcome some low level capping, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across most of the forecast area Thursday. Shear vectors are not completely perpendicular to the surface boundary but enough so that a supercell thunderstorm can't be ruled out. The main threats Thursday afternoon and evening would be large hail to the size of golf balls and 60 mph winds. After Thursday, attention shifts to the potential for a prolonged heat threat through the weekend and into early next week. Friday will see daytime highs climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s, but the most impactful heat will be over the weekend and early next week. Daytime highs of 90 to 100 on Saturday, and 95 to 105 Sunday may necessitate the need for a long term Heat Hazard, especially since overnight low temperatures remain at or above the 70 degree mark. At this time, Sunday looks to be the most oppressive day with heat indices above 100 degrees across most of the forecast area, and up to 108 degrees in a few areas. However if you consider the HeatRisk and WBGT, a case could be made for a long term hazard encompassing Saturday through Monday, given the warm overnight lows. We still have a while to ponder, but if current forecast trends hold, it will definitely be a very hot weekend. With a lot of outdoor events going on, we will definitely be increasing our heat related messaging. The oppressive heat should limit thunderstorm activity over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Low stratus and fog at KDIK to begin the 12Z TAF period. Kept a mention of low ceilings and some fog through 16 UTC. Elsewhere no mention of MVFR or lower ceilings/vsbys, but they can not be ruled out at any site through mid morning. Once VFR conditions are reached at KDIK, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period at all sites. Will need to monitor for a possible mention of patchy fog Thursday morning, but to uncertain to add with this issuance. Surface winds light and variable around 12 knots or less through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH  112 FXUS63 KDMX 081144 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 644 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited patchy fog in low lying areas this morning. - Thunderstorm chances return into this afternoon through Thursday morning. A few storms may produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall. - Additional rainfall around 1 to 2 inches Wednesday through Thursday may slow or worsen ongoing improvement along area rivers. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A look at observations across Central Iowa early this morning indicate temperatures in the low 70s, with dewpoints near the same values in some isolated locations under clear skies and calm or very light winds, leading to some patchy fog. While patchy fog may continue to form mainly in low lying areas until sunrise or so, a look further north into Minnesota shows a line of showers and thunderstorms near a boundary that are moving east-southeast with time. The convective debris (cloud shield) is extending southward, which has already started to move into northern Iowa and will likely continue the descent south through the morning, keeping fog formation relatively minimal. The aforementioned boundary is ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough that is currently over the Dakotas, which will continue to push east throughout the day, while the boundary gradually shifts slowly southeastward today. CAM guidance generally indicates that these showers and storms will not arrive into northern Iowa until around 17-18z, though this may be too slow, given how convection is at least slightly further south at this time and may result in an earlier arrival closer to mid-morning. If the current storms in southern Iowa do die before reaching the northern parts of the forecast area, additional storm development is expected to occur near/along this sagging front, with higher confidence in showers and storms entering northern Iowa by early-mid afternoon. Ahead of this feature, conditions across Iowa will be on the hot and humid side, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s, which will allow for instability to increase into the afternoon and remain through the evening, with values around 1500-2000 J/kg and shear values around 30 knots that will be favorable for storms to grow upscale to at least some degree. Less favorable lapse rates below 7 C/km and high freezing level heights (15 kft) will likely lead to difficulty in large hail development, though the damaging wind potential is much more favorable as storms gradually congeal into lines. The risk for a few isolated tornadoes also remains, though low, with SRH values below 100 m2s2 and limited directional shear. The Slight Risk per SPC was expanded further south and west to highlight the increasing potential for severe weather in these areas. A look at the environment for heavy rain potential indicates high PWAT values near 2 inches overhead towards the evening and overnight as this boundary nears the I-80 corridor, paired with the aforementioned deep warm cloud depths. The risk would increase further for flooding if any particular areas sees multiple storms, which would increase concerns substantially for new and renewed rises of rivers and also the potential flash flooding risk, especially in areas that received the several inches of rain late last week. Through Thursday morning, the expectation per various models suggests that storms should generally have descended into south central to southern Iowa, with the lingering potential for severe weather as forcing for lift increases with some presence of the low level jet into west/southwest Iowa. Total rainfall amounts by Thursday morning are indicated around 1-2 inches, with isolated 3 inches possible over western into west central Iowa and lower values elsewhere across the state. As the boundary moves across southern Iowa, there remains a signal of a developing MCV that tracks eastward, which would bring a renewed potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Recent guidance though has this feature further south into Missouri but still near southern Iowa, so will need to keep an eye on this. As this system departs later in the day, additional convection may fire off again over southern Iowa where the front may linger yet, though severe weather potential by this point looks more limited. The overall evolution of storm placement and track into Thursday will be heavily dependent on how the activity plays out later today into tonight, so trends will be very important to monitor. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 One more shortwave passes through the 500 mb pattern on Friday, bringing more shower and storm chances to the state, albeit to a lower confidence given a lot of the moisture transport will be focused to the south of Iowa. After this Friday wave, 500 mb ridging fills in aloft, keeping conditions dry and warm for most of the state through the weekend. Highs by next week climb back into the upper 80s and potentially the low 90s. This high pressure looks to stick around for a few days, before eventually breaking down late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Clouds will gradually increase from northwest to southeast today, ahead of showers and thunderstorms that are expected to move with a passing boundary across the state this afternoon to evening. Cannot rule out a storm this morning near KMCW given current radar trends, but confidence is not high that these storms will hold together, so have left out at this time and will monitor. While VFR conditions are generally expected, there could be brief periods of MVFR conditions as storms pass through due to visibility and ceiling restrictions. Winds will increase out of the southwest during the daytime hours, then turn variable tonight into Thursday, though storms could produce brief gusty winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Rivers and streams in central Iowa continue to see increased flows as water continues to route through the system. Rivers within the Des Moines and Cedar River basins are at increased levels as water works it's way down stream, albeit all below flood stage and continuing to recede. Additional rainfall later this week, especially this evening through Friday, could lead to slower improvement and/or additional rises on area rivers, depending on what basins this rain affects. The heaviest rain looks like it will fall over north central Iowa, and should be in isolated pockets. However, should one of these isolated pockets fall in the wrong spots, conditions may be exacerbated. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bury LONG TERM...Dodson AVIATION...Bury HYDROLOGY...Dodson/Bury  316 FXUS65 KBOU 081146 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 546 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with a few strong to severe storms, are expected from the Front Range eastward today and Thursday. - Prolonged period of hot temperatures arrive Saturday, lasting through at least Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances remain low during this period. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 202 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Storms are expected to form over the foothills and I-25 corridor early this afternoon, progressing eastward throughout the afternoon and early evening. The strength and coverage of these initial storms near I-25 and the urban corridor will depend heavily on surface moisture. Some of the high res models have the higher dewpoints mixing out and pulling east in the early afternoon, which will hinder storms. Others, keep the moisture closer to the foothills. If the surface moisture does end up staying further west, we could see a few isolated strong to severe storms near the I-25 corridor, with the coverage and intensity of storms increasing as they move east. While strong winds will be the primarily hazard, mid level lapse rates and shear will be large enough that we could see a few storms produce severe sized hail. The threat for strong winds will increase later in the event as storms start to merge together in our eastern plains counties. Isolated areas could see periods of heavy rainfall as well with these storms. This activity is expected to exit our area by the late evening. On Thursday, it looks like we could see a Denver Cyclone set up and a weak disturbance move through the flow aloft. The east/southeasterly surface winds will keep dewpoints on the higher end for a good portion of the plains. These ingredients will combine to produce scattered to numerous thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Once again, the main threat will be strong winds, particularly in our eastern counties, but we could see a few initial supercells which produce severe sized hail in the afternoon. I do want to put a caveat in here though that with the decent thunderstorm coverage we're expecting today, outflow boundaries will likely linger somewhere over the area early Friday, which could impact initial conditions and the location of convective development for Thursday afternoon. We could see some additional thunderstorm development on Friday, but coverage and confidence in storms is lower compared to today and tomorrow. The upper level ridge will strengthen and shift north and west starting Saturday, putting the center of the high in the Colorado/Wyoming/Utah area for the weekend. Models are currently indicating that this ridge could strengthen to around 600dm (which is very strong). The ridge will sit over our area through at least the middle of next week. Strong subsidence under the upper level ridge will act to limit rain chances for this weekend and into the middle part of next week and will allow for clear skies, sunshine, and plenty of warming. We do have 2 things that could help us to keep temperatures below record breaking levels. The first is that models are actually keeping the warmest temperatures aloft to our west and north during this time period. And the second is that surface winds look like they may have more of an easterly component than a westerly component. This will provide weak upslope rather than the warm,dry downslope conditions that we see with westerly surface winds. With this being said, we're still looking at a prolonged period of above normal temperatures for the whole area, but we may be able to escape record breaking high temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/... Issued at 428 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026West/southwest winds will gradually turn northwest then northeast throughout the morning. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher elevations and foothills around noon before progressing east towards the terminals. The most likely timing for storms this afternoon will be 19Z-23Z at KBJC and 20Z to 24Z at KDEN and KAPA. Storms will be scattered and intermittent during these time periods, producing gusty and variable winds. This activity is forecast to move out of the TAF sites by 00Z, with a chance for a few lingering showers or storms. In the evening, outflow from the storms to the east and northeast could impact the airports in the mid to late evening. However, confidence in wind speed and wind direction from any outflow boundaries are low. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...AP  353 FXUS63 KLBF 081148 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 648 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across the western Sandhills, southwest and central Nebraska, with large hail and damaging winds possible. - Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon/evening, favoring areas west of Highway 83, with damaging winds and isolated severe hail the main concerns. - Much warmer temperatures arrive this weekend ahead of anomalous heat setting in for early next week where daily highs in the upper 90s to low 100s appear probable for Sunday through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances late this afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough moving across the Dakotas into MN will push a cold front south through western NE with a northeast to east wind in the afternoon. Highs not as hot, from the mid 80s north central to the low 90s southwest. A few showers and storms are possible in the northeast this morning into this afternoon and possibly further south into Custer County this afternoon. This is in closer proximity to the surface front. In the higher terrain to our west, storms are expected to develop by mid afternoon in an easterly upslope environment and move east into the western Sandhills late afternoon and evening. Storms coverage looks more scattered by this evening across the western Sandhills, southwest and central NE. SBCAPEs by late afternoon will be highest near 2500 J/kg across the southeast, and 1000-2000 across the west. Deep layer shear will be around 35 to 40 kts. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, with isolated large hail also possible. A Slight Risk for severe storms south of a line from Hay Springs through Bartlett. A secondary threat of locally heavy rainfall, where storms are slow moving or train across the same areas. Could see an MCS develop overnight, mainly across south central or southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorm activity will diminish after midnight as weak surface high pressure settles over the area and winds become light and variable. Lows slightly cooler from upper 50s northwest Sandhills to near 65 southeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday/Thursday Night...Modest high pressure will glance the area early in the day with return southeasterly flow becoming established by midday. How potential convection across Kansas impedes moisture advection into the area remains unclear but overall thinking is adequate recovery should be anticipated locally. Beneath persistent anomalous warmth aloft, temperatures should manage to seasonable levels. This paints widespread 80s across the area with a select few approaching 90F. As the influence of a modest EML lingers over the area, moderate instability should develop favoring the Panhandle region where low-level moisture should be most impressive. MLCAPE values are progged to climb to around 1500-2000 j/kg within nominal deep layer shear as 0-6km BWD values reach 25-35 knots which will support organized multicell to isolated supercell development. Convection should develop off the higher terrain during peak heating and track east within the zonal steering flow aloft. Storm motions should be typical of early July, relatively slow. This should delay most activity arriving into our western zones until the early evening. With loss of daytime heating, boundary layer stabilization will hinder eastward progression of activity and MLCIN increases quickly. With lack of any appreciable supporting theta-e advection off the surface, convection should wane quickly by mid/late evening. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for areas west of a Merriman to Paxton line with roughly a 100 mile Marginal Risk buffer to the east. This aligns with the thinking that convection will wane quickly between Highway 61 and 83 corridors and casts doubt on meaningful rainfall chances east of the latter. Main severe threats will consist of damaging wind gusts though isolated severe hail will be possible west of Highway 61. Parent shortwave trough will cross late in the evening with h5 low forming over central and eastern Nebraska. Backside convergence may support persistent light PoPs overnight but NBM probabilities paint low potential for beneficial rainfall. Will keep Slight Chance and Chance PoPs for now, generally limited to 40% or less. Friday and beyond...heights begin to build by later in the day Friday but timing of upper-level low and its departure is low confidence at this time. Model blend maintains low-end PoPs through the bulk of the day which is somewhat supported by various deterministic solutions so see little reason to stray from these significantly. Cooler temperatures appear possible but variations in NWP output limits confidence in this. Attention quickly turns to the looming heat wave arriving this weekend and persisting into next week. Upper ridge will quickly amplify by early weekend with 595+ dam h5 heights overspreading Wyoming and much of western Nebraska by Sunday. This aligns with NAEFS highlighting h2 and h5 heights surpassing model climatologies for the time of year. Similarly, temperatures aloft will be approaching climatological maximums, particularly at h5 and h7. The warmer temperatures aloft combined with the high pressure dome will quell any and all rainfall potential in the extended period. As it stands now, expansive middle to upper 90s are in the forecast for early next week with a few locations approaching triple digits. Forecast highs at North Platte and Valentine in particular would fall in the upper range of each site's respective climatology with values at Valentine likely to exceed the 90th percentile in climatology each day Sunday through Wednesday. As impressive as this warmth appears likely to be, we should fall short of record highs. Nevertheless, given the anticipated magnitude of heat over consecutive days with little relief overnight (heat indices struggling to fall be 70F at times), concern is high for vulnerable folks to prolonged heat. Will need to closely monitor day-to-day trends in forecast highs as headlines may be necessary to account for this. Anomalous upper ridging appears likely to continue over the Central Plains through much of next week with ridge breakdown appearing likely by Thursday. This may break the heat and allow appreciable rainfall chances to return though precise details are uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are largely expected through the forecast period. A brief period of low-stratus may envelope KVTN and introduce some IFR/LIFR conditions, but this should be limited to an hour or so. Thereafter, expecting only passing mid to high level clouds with general northeasterly winds remaining fairly modest. Later today, thunderstorms should develop out west and introduce thicker high level clouds. Only KLBF will see the potential for -TSRA but this remains low confidence so continue to cover with a PROB30. Signals again point to at least some IFR conditions in our north late tonight so did include a mention at KVTN but this should remain north of LBF. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...NMJ  502 FXUS63 KFGF 081153 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 653 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 1 out of 5 risk Thursday overnight for the Devils Lake basin. Isolated severe storms possible. - Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The higher end scenerio of severe storms and very heavy rainfall overnight did not occur. That is a good thing. Flood watch was cancelled early. A few showers yet around SE ND into WC MN early this morning, otherwise a dry day today with mix of cloud and sun. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...Synopsis... Ensembles are in good agreement with the large scale pattern over the next 7 days, depicting the current zonal flow to transition into a sort of omega block pattern with ridging across the central CONUS. Details less certain of course. ...Severe and Flash Flood Potential... Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough across Montana slowly propagating eastward. As this feature continue to propagate eastward this evening, anticipate a strong 850mb jet to develop with nose of this feature into the southern Red River Valley. Currently, showers are developing along a 700mb boundary across central North Dakota, with additional activity associated with an MCV across the southern RRV and west central Minnesota. This activity will continue eastward, although impacts will be minimal. Later this evening, the 850mb front will shift north as the low level jet increases. Surface instability will remain across South Dakota, but with instability along the elevated front and stronger warm air advection there is a very high chance for elevated thunderstorms along and south of I-94/Hwy10. Severe Potential...Freezing levels are near 15 Kft, but given the elevated nature of the storms potential exists for near severe to severe hail given MUCAPE near 2000 J/Kg and effective shear near 50 knots. Potential also exists for severe wind given the anticipated strong low level bulk shear, even with the storm being elevated. The elevated nature of the storms will limit severe potential, but will not eliminate severe potential. Excessive rainfall/flash flood potential...Anticipate heavy rainfall rates given PWATS near 1.75 inches along with soundings indicating efficient rainfall rate processes (plus high freezing level). Given the west to east position of the elevated front, potential also exists for training storms. CAM guidance indicating mean rainfall 1-2 inches with max rainfall near 5 inches. Given all of this, plus the rain that fell yesterday (1-2 inches) across west central Minnesota, will issue a flood watch for flash flood potential (10p-7a). ...Dangerous Heat... As the ridging builds into the weekend, anticipate max temperatures 95F-100F (maybe a bit warmer) across much of the region Saturday through Monday. Heat risk, wet bulb globe temp, and heat index values all indicate a dangerous heat episode. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A mix bag of sky cover out there this morning predominately mix of high and mid clouds and that is the trend today before clearing takes hold later today and especially tonight. Light winds north to 10 kts today and then near calm tonight. May have some local fog tonight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle/JR DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...Riddle  494 FXUS65 KTFX 081152 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 552 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail. - A few showers and thunderstorms in Southwest Montana Thursday and Friday afternoon. - Trending hotter toward the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday looking hottest. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 212 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026/ Meteorological Overview: Upper level troughing well off to the northwest over northern BC will progress eastward through the day today, eventually emerging into northwestern AB by the evening. Flow aloft across the region will largely be zonal, but be ever so slightly cyclonic in nature given the disturbance off to the northwest. This weakly cyclonic nature of the flow will combine with sufficient daytime heating to result in at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region by mid-afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings suggest wind will be the primary concern with the strongest thunderstorms, but increasing shear through the afternoon combine with respectable instability will yield a large hail threat as well. This activity exits eastward late evening or early overnight. The main upper level disturbance passes eastward into Thursday, though some lingering instability across SW MT will yield a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon. Thereafter an upper level ridge begins to build in across the Central CONUS and interior west, which will allow for temperatures to climb heading into the weekend. While the hottest conditions look to remain off to the east and southeast, afternoon temperatures rising well into the 90s in many areas this weekend will pose impacts to those with outdoor plans. Plan for plenty of hydration and rest breaks if planning to be outside this weekend. Heading into next week the ridge looks to slide eastward ever so slightly, which looks to open the door for some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. -AM Uncertainty: The main source of uncertainty today looks to be just how strong forcing will be for thunderstorm activity. As of now the main wave with the upper level disturbance looks to remain well north of the region. Forecast soundings show a small amount of convective inhibition, which would not require too much forcing to result in convective initiation. Should this forcing be slightly stronger, shower and thunderstorm activity would become much more widespread this afternoon and evening and vice versa. Looking ahead toward the weekend, the main source of uncertainty will be associated with just how hot it gets across the region. As of now there is roughly a 50% chance for afternoon highs to reach or exceed 100F on Sunday over the plains. -AM && .AVIATION... 08/12Z TAF Period While VFR conditions are the general rule this morning, a few areas of dense fog are present along the US 2 corridor, particularly KCTB and KHVR. Any fog should clear up by 14z, though I left it in the TAFs until 15z as a slight buffer. Otherwise, after a dry morning, a few TSRA will develop across the plains, staring over the Rocky Mountain Front before moving eastward. A few of the storms may be capable of producing some gusty winds or hail east of Interstate 15. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 92 57 88 56 / 20 20 0 0 CTB 86 55 82 54 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 89 57 87 56 / 30 20 0 0 BZN 87 53 87 54 / 20 20 0 0 WYS 83 46 83 46 / 20 20 0 0 DLN 85 52 85 52 / 20 20 0 0 HVR 91 57 87 56 / 10 20 0 0 LWT 86 54 83 53 / 10 40 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  585 FXUS62 KCAE 081155 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 755 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Hot conditions continue across the area, with limited chances for thunderstorms the next couple of days. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Hot conditions continue across the area, with limited chances for thunderstorms the next couple of days. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front. Mid to upper level ridging over the Florida peninsula is expected to build northward today, partially in response to a trough over the lower Mississippi Valley. Dry mid-level air is also expected to remain in place, which is forecast to mix down to the surface in the afternoon. This will lead to lower dew points than previously forecast, and subsequently lower heat index values. However, heat indices are still expected to reach the 100-105F range across the area this afternoon, with a few locations slightly higher. In addition, this drier air will lead to just a low (up to ~10-15%) chance for an isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the eastern portions of the forecast area. The aforementioned trough over the lower Mississippi Valley is expected to move eastward tomorrow and lift northward around the ridge over the area. As it does, the latest guidance stretches it out some. So, while the chances for thunderstorms are a bit higher tomorrow due to this, they do remain on the low side (up to ~20%). Lower rain chances continue on Friday as weak forcing continues. An approaching front for the weekend brings a greater chance for shower and thunderstorm activity to the region. Flow aloft is also forecast to become more zonal, which could lead to the front and associated precipitation chances lingering into next week. As has been emphasized over the past week, the ongoing heat remains a concern. Temperatures are expected to remain 3-6 degrees above normal through Saturday, with height indices reaching the low to mid-100s. Most locations should remain below Heat Advisory criteria (108F), so no Heat Advisories are anticipated at this time. Continue to practice heat safety, especially with prolonged heat expected to persist. Please remain diligent if you have outdoor activities planned. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A drier air mass in place today should yield relatively quiet weather with only isolated convection expected this afternoon, too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise typical diurnal cumulus is expected to develop by 15z with surface heating and southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots expected by 16z with some gusts to 15 to 18 knots during the afternoon due to deep mixing. Winds should diminish to around 5 knots by 09/02z. Low chances of morning fog/stratus. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Daily rain chances and possible restrictions continue through at least midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...29 AVIATION...96  552 FXUS65 KVEF 081154 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 454 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and warming temperatures will continue through the end of the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday. High pressure builds aloft and temperatures are on the rise through the rest of the week. Afternoon high temperatures will top out between 5 and 7 degrees above normal and Las Vegas has a 40 to 50 percent chance of a high of at least 110 degrees each afternoon between Thursday and Saturday. Hot daytime temperatures combined with warm overnight low temperatures will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for most locations. This level of heat will affect those who do not have access to sufficient cooling and hydration, as well as those who are especially vulnerable to heat related illnesses. The position of the high should maintain dry conditions and afternoon breezes, which prompt elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region today and tomorrow. A classic monsoon setup develops this weekend as high pressure becomes established over the Four Corners region and southerly flow advects moisture into the Desert Southwest. PWAT values of an inch or more cover areas along and southeast of Interstate 15 on Sunday, at which point the best precipitation chances will exist over high terrain in northwestern Arizona. Moisture increases and POPs spread north through the first half of next week, generally favoring high terrain where orographic lift favors thunderstorm formation. Finer details on timing and location of storms should become more apparent over the next few days. Other than storm potential, lowering heights aloft and the moisture influx should help lower temperatures by a few degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Breezy south-southeast winds will set up later this morning around 8 kts, though can't rule out an occasional gust between 15 and 20 kts. Wind direction will gradually veer through the afternoon, but expect directional variability between 140 and 220 for a couple of hours until winds settle from the southwest. After this point, expect gusts around 25 kts. Gusts fall off after sunset. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 17 and 04Z with a max temperature of 109. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Expect gusty south- southwesterly winds at Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites this afternoon, with speeds between 20 and 25 kts. KBIH will have breezy south-southeast winds before veering west-northwest in the late-afternoon. KDAG will experience gusty west winds between 25 and 30 kts. No operationally significant cloud cover. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter