833 FXUS63 KJKL 081200 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally dense fog will affect much of the area through the morning commute. - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. - Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility through the next 7 days, with a threat of at least isolated flash flooding each day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 725 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Almost a repeat of yesterday morning with a need for a Dense Fog Advisory, though it seems to be lifting to a stratus so may not be as much of a concern for valleys now. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These tweaks have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 445 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 08Z sfc analysis still shows a weak and ill defined pressure pattern over eastern Kentucky. This is allowing the diurnal cycle to be the main driver of the weather. At night, the convection dies off along with much of the clouds allowing very limited radiation cooling and the development of fog - becoming dense in the valleys. Again due to high humidity there is minimal terrain differences showing up in the temperatures. Specifically, readings are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s with similar dewpoints, amid light to calm winds. An SPS is again in effect for areas of dense fog early this morning across the entirety of the JKL CWA. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast even as they indicate more amplification to end the work week. Initially, they all depict a positively tilted 5h trough in place over the Tennessee Valley through western Kentucky. This trough will fill and dampen through Thursday as it slowly drifts east with very small height falls for the area. Late in the period the westerlies at mid-level running through the northern Ohio Valley start to speed up and settle south toward Kentucky. This essentially sets the stage for additional short waves - some probably convectively induced from upstream - to impact the area into the start of the weekend. Given the good enough agreement among the models through 00Z Friday, the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids with some adjustment applied for very minor terrain details in temperatures tonight. As for PoPs, consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage were included from the latest CAM runs. These were again smoothed and fitted to a reasonable diurnal trend - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics possibly extending the convection later into the nights than the past couple of them. Sensible weather features typical summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be warm and humid with mainly afternoon and evening convection. Overlaid on this fairly predictable pattern will be the potential for outside influence in the form of waves at mid level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly on Thursday and beyond. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - becoming cumulative by week's end with isolated flood concerns peaking. In addition to the excessive rain, we will also need to be on the look out for organized convection from those strengthening and nearing westerlies bringing perturbances closer to the area such that damaging wind gusts could be possible from any more organized storms Thursday afternoon and evening - especially over our western zones. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Thursday evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday. The previous long term discussion follows: Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast. Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday, as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the Intermountain West. For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall, and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday. Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday, with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The fog and low stratus are affecting the majority of the TAF sites at the 12Z issuance with VLIFR conditions reported. This is expected to possibly convert to or merge with a low cloud deck before clearing out. VFR conditions then return until more showers/ thunderstorms develop after daytime heating builds. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions likely lingering later into the evening than the past couple of nights. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...GREIF  188 FXUS61 KRLX 081208 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 808 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have updated fog coverage across the area over the next hour or so, which should continue to steadily lift / dissipate. Have also removed any rain mention from the forecast until late morning. Fairly widespread fog / stratus this morning should delay any convective shower development across the central/southern zones a bit longer than originally progged. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and into the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Locally heavy rainfall will remain a possibility throughout the rest of the work week and into the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place amid some forcing from a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves. Steering flow remains light today, at 10 knots or less, but does pickup from Thursday into the weekend as upper air dynamics begin to rule. This will mean mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today will become more driven by the upper air pattern for Thursday into the weekend. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend. With the ground already saturated in many locations, localized flash flooding remains a threat. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... After patchy dense fog lifts, expect a cumulus deck to form by mid morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms causing restrictions this afternoon and evening. Dense fog can be expected again Wednesday night where rainfall occurs this afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog lifting could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M H M H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions associated with thunderstorms remain possible into the weekend, more likely in the afternoon and evening hours. Dense fog is possible each night in areas that receive rainfall the afternoon and evening before. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY/GW AVIATION...RPY  553 FXUS65 KSLC 081212 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 612 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... - Scattered high-based convection is expected to across northern/central UT and southwest WY tomorrow afternoon with gusty outflow winds capable of gusts to 50mph with scattered severe gusts in excess of 58mph. - Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southern UT tomorrow afternoon as gusts increase with a decrease in RH. - Probabilities for a notable heat wave developing late this week continue to increase resulting in areas of major HeatRisk developing statewide. Valley temperatures are forecast to reach and/or exceed 100F Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026... Large-scale ridging continues to build over the Four Corners region with southwesterly flow persisting overhead. Mid- level moisture will continue to overspread UT into tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave trough pushes across northwest UT, deepening somewhat with eastern extent. As such, high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern and central UT as well as southwest WY. Mid-level flow associated with the trough ranging from 40-50kts is forecast to push across northern UT in the afternoon hours, serving to increase eff. shear to around 20-30kts, potentially resulting in the development of organized convection and longer-lived storms. Additionally, DCAPE continues to remain quite high to around 1600-1800J/kg, and with ample flow aloft, scattered instances of strong to severe wind gusts (58mph) appear likely with the potential of a few gusts to 70mph. The highest confidence for these gusts reside in western Box Elder county due to low confidence regarding eastern extent. Later tomorrow evening into Thursday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly/zonal following the departure of the trough ejecting northeast. Drier air working its way in with the westerly flow with modest height rises across the region will provide enough large- scale subsidence to keep most areas dry with convection remaining across higher terrain. Additionally, temperatures will remain moderated, albeit still quite hot during this time given a more stagnant upper air pattern. On Friday, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build significantly centered over the Four Corners with high confidence regarding the development of dangerously hot temperatures. On Friday, most valley locations will approach 100F across much of UT. On Saturday, nearly all valley locations are forecast to break into the 100s with lower Washington nearing 110F. Similar temperatures are expected to occur on Sunday and Monday across the entirety of the forecast area. Regarding HeatRisk, most valley locations will see "Major" develop, particularly along the I-15 corridor on Saturday with pockets of "Extreme" developing along the northern Wasatch Front. Both areas of "Major" and "Extreme" will increase in size on Sunday, expanding into both Salt Lake City and Provo, given expected poor overnight recoveries across the aforementioned areas. The threat continues on Monday, primarily along the Wasatch Front. && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions can be expected through the day, with southeast winds this morning switching to northwest around 18-19z. There is a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms impacting the terminal after 20Z this afternoon. Northerly winds will likely continue through 06-07z this evening, with a 30% chance of gusts over 26kt/30mph between 01-03z due to outflows. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the day, with generally diurnal winds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening mainly across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible around KBCE this afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms will bring periods of erratic and gusty winds. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 354 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... The airmass will trend drier today under a west- southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts west off the northern Baja coast. Afternoon relative humidities will drop below 15% across most of central and southern Utah, down to the single digits in some valley locales. Meanwhile, across northern Utah, lingering moisture will maintain isolated to scattered mainly high-based showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry lightning and gusty outflow winds being the main threat. While chances of showers and thunderstorms across the central mountains and adjacent valleys are nonzero, they are expected to be much more isolated there today. Meanwhile, enhanced winds combined with the low humidities will once again drive critical fire weather conditions across portions of central and southern Utah today. The drying trend will continue across the area through the rest of the week, with humidities continuing to trend downward across the area and overnight recoveries become increasingly poor especially across central and southern Utah. Convection will become increasingly isolated during this time as well. Thursday may continue to bring critical fire weather conditions as winds remain enhanced especially across southern Utah. As high pressure builds back into the area for the weekend into the beginning of next week, dry and very hot conditions can be expected. Temperatures are very likely to reach at least 100 degrees in most valleys over the weekend, while relative humidities in the single digits will be common. However, the pattern still looks favorable for moisture to increase into the area beginning early next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-495-497- 498. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ493-496. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Cheng FIRE WEATHER...Cheng For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  903 FXUS65 KBOI 081221 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 621 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across portions of southern Idaho. Storms may produce outflow wind gusts up to 40-60 mph, possibly moving through the Treasure and Magic Valleys. - Gusty winds late this afternoon and evening, with breezy conditions continuing each afternoon through the week. - Hot temperatures continue, hottest Friday and Saturday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 348 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 Moisture will linger over southwest Idaho today under southwesterly flow aloft, bringing another round of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain south of the Snake River in far southern Idaho and lift northeast. Storms are expected to weaken upon reaching the Snake Basin, but a few storms will persist as they enter the Magic Valley and southern Boise Mountains. Lightning and gusty winds 40-60 mph will be the primary hazards from storms, with localized blowing dust possible from outflows. Brief heavy rain is also possible in stronger storms. Thunderstorms should track to the east of the Boise Metro, but outflow gusts to 40 mph from distant storms are possible. Otherwise today, expect similar temperatures to yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 90s in the lower elevations with 80s to lower 90s in mountain valleys. Late this afternoon and evening, northwest wind gusts 20-35 mph will develop in many areas as an upper trough over British Columbia tracks east and sends a weak, dry cold front through our area. Breezy conditions with gusts 15-30 mph will continue into Thursday, strongest across southern Idaho. Breezy and dry conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions. Westerly flow aloft will push moisture and the accompanying thunderstorm threat to our east. High temperatures will cool by 3-5 degrees. On Friday, a strong upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest will begin to build north, bringing hotter temperatures. Lower valleys will reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. For Boise, there is around a 50-60% chance of reaching triple digits for the first time this season. Southwest flow aloft will bring breezy conditions to the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 348 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 The center of a strong upper level ridge will move across the Rocky Mountains and into the Northern Plains this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will remain very hot on Saturday with lower valley highs around 100 degrees. Temperatures should cool a couple degrees for the rest of the period as the ridge axis moves east. However, a slight shift west of the ridge would produce hotter temperatures. Expect locally breezy conditions each afternoon. Ensembles are in excellent agreement that monsoonal moisture will work its way north around the ridge into our area early next week. This will reintroduce the potential for showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain. An increase of clouds and precipitation will also likely aid in the slight cooldown. Ensemble mean precipitable water values climb to 150-200% of normal, or above the 90th percentile. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding especially on recent burn scars could be a concern with deep moisture in place. Additionally, after a period of hot, dry conditions, lightning on dry fuels could be a concern for new fire starts, especially if significant rainfall ends up being more limited. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 605 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 Mainly VFR. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly across far southwest and south-central Idaho, impacting the Magic Valley terminals. Storms capable of 30-50 kt outflows, brief heavy rain, and blowing dust. Localized terrain obscuration from wildfire smoke. High density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds outside of storms: variable less than 10 kt this morning, becoming W-NW 5-15 kt this afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt late afternoon and evening, except 25-35 kt KBKE-KONO. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable or SW-W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. A 30% chance of shower/thunderstorm outflows (30-40 kt) reaching KBOI after Wed/23Z. Minor visibility reductions due to wildfire smoke this morning, with foothills obscured in smoke at times from fire activity. High density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds: SE 5-10 kt this morning, becoming NW 8-13 kt with gusts to 20 kt by Wed/21Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL over KBOI: SW-W 10-15 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-426. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....ST SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....ST  925 FXUS66 KOTX 081223 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 523 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical Fire Weather: Red Flag Warnings in effect Wednesday due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. - Thunderstorm Potential: Slight (5 to 10 percent) chance for high- based showers and thunderstorms across Eastern WA and North ID early Wednesday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Critical fire weather conditions will continue for Central Washington and expand across Eastern WA this afternoon and evening as a dry cold front tracks through the region. The front will bring a low (5 to 10 percent) chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms over Eastern WA and North ID early Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will decrease slightly but remain breezy Thursday and Friday, keeping fire weather conditions elevated through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday: A strong low off the Canadian coast will move inland and usher in a strong dry cold front through the forecast area later this morning. Winds will increase across much of central Washington, with widespread wind gusts 20 to 30 mph expected and wind gusts 35 to 45 mph expected along the Cascade gaps. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to be widespread today. Current models show an 8 to 10 mb pressure gradient between SEA and COE. These higher wind gusts could result in blowing objects alongside challenging driving for high profile vehicles. As such, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for a significant portion of central and eastern Washington from 11 AM to 10 PM tonight. Areas included in the Red Flag Warning are the the Okanogan Valley, Cascade foothills, Waterville Plateau, Western Columbia Basin, Spokane area, Colville Reservation, and Northeast Washington foothills area. Ahead of the front, a weak vorticity maximum will move through alongside mid level moisture, resulting in a small (5 to 10 percent chance) but impactful chance for elevated convection across eastern Washington later this morning. A couple hundred J/kg of CAPE with steep lower level lapse rates and an inverted V sounding will support a low chance for dry thunderstorms, with very little precipitation expected. While chances are low for any thunderstorm development, this is a high impact scenario when combined with already critical fire weather conditions later in the day, as any lightning strikes will pose a fire hazard. Any convection that forms will be monitored extremely closely this morning. Thursday through Sunday: Zonal flow following the frontal passage will keep winds elevated on Thursday, particularly across the Cascade gaps. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, roughly 50% of clusters show another trough moving through the area, which would result in continued fire weather concerns through the first part of the weekend. The other 50% of clusters show the trough staying just offshore enough to not impact winds as intensely. Conditions will continue to be warm and dry with temperatures in the mid to high 80s. Monday through Tuesday: Clusters then begin favoring a broad ridge setting up and strengthening over much of the Western US at the beginning of next work week. This will result in warming temperatures, with long-term models projecting highs to return to the 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Alongside clusters showing good agreement in this ridge, the CPC's 8-14 day temperature outlook shows a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. Additionally, the CPC's probabilistic 8-14 day outlook hazards page shows a 20-40% chance for extreme heat in southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. /AS && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. A cold front is moving through the forecast area, increasing winds around 15-18Z for many of the TAF sites. Wind gusts will be 20-25kts, and EAT has the best chance at seeing 25-30kt wind gusts. EAT and MWH will stay breezy through 06Z tomorrow. Other TAF sites winds will relax around 01-03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 89 57 85 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 87 57 84 56 85 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 84 51 81 50 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 93 60 90 59 93 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 90 53 86 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 87 56 84 55 85 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 84 56 81 54 84 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 91 54 90 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 87 61 88 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 92 57 90 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)- Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)- Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)- Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$  022 FXAK68 PAFC 081228 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 428 AM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A shortwave trough over the western Copper River Basin is running up against a second wave draped over Southwest Alaska and Kodiak Island this morning. Rain continues across Kodiak Island north to the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula and across the Talkeetna Mountains and Susitna Valley. Between these two features, bands of showers have developed in weak low-level convergence and moisture advection. A coastal ridge, combined with lower pressure across Southern Alaska, has allowed southeasterly gap winds to persist, especially through Turnagain Arm and across West Anchorage. For Palmer and the Copper River Valley, these winds have diminished overnight and become less gusty. The trough over Southcentral will elongate, getting stretched by both the westerly flow across Southcentral and the trough over Kodiak Island sliding east into the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow showers to continue through this afternoon across the Susitna Valley and eastern half of the Kenai Peninsula. Scattered showers will also remain possible across the Cook Inlet region. Southeasterly gap winds will pick back up by around noon, albeit with less intensity than that of yesterday, across typical locations. Models continue to struggle with the evolution and track of the next shortwave moving from Yukon, Canada over the Alaska Range and interior Southcentral for Thursday. Placement of the trough will dictate location of the steadiest precipitation through Thursday. As of Wednesday morning, the track of this wave looks to be from Paxson southwest across the southern Susitna Valley. As the trough and surface low sweep across the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday and into the southeastern Gulf Thursday, it will pull the aforementioned trough to the south along with it. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday with most locations reaching high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, with near 70 for Homer, Seward, Valdez, Kodiak, and Cordova as a warmer northerly flow aloft develops along with gusty northerly gap winds. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday morning)... A low pressure system in the southeastern Bering Sea continues to push its front through Southwest Alaska today. As a result, expect rain to continue across much of Southwest today before it begins to taper off this afternoon and evening from west to east. By this afternoon and evening, the low center will have transferred its energy across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) to form a new low in the Gulf of Alaska around Kodiak Island. For Thursday, an upper-level shortwave, originating from the interior of the state, will drop southward across the Kuskokwim Valley. Due to the timing of this feature arriving Thursday morning, the atmosphere looks relatively stable and therefore the lightning threat will be very low. There is still some uncertainty on the ultimate track this feature will take. However, as it appears now, most rainfall from this system will fall from Sleetmute and east to the Western Alaska Range. Rain tapers off Thursday night into Friday morning with some leftover showers lingering along the Western Alaska Range. The next weather-maker features more uncertainty with regards to the track and progression of a North Pacific low that is poised to move along the Aleutian Chain and eventually into the Bering Sea for the rest of Friday and into Saturday. More on this in a moment...First off and setting the stage for this North Pacific low is a relatively strong ridge across the western and central Bering thismorning. This ridge axis, currently centered across the Western (Shemya) and Central (Adak/Atka) Aleutians, will shift eastward across to the Eastern Aleutians (Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan) and Pribilof Islands by Thursday morning. This will open the door for the North Pacific low mentioned above to sends its front to Adak/Atka and Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan by Thursday afternoon and evening. The strongest winds are expected to be sustained small-craft (with gale-force gusts) southerly to southwesterlies in the North Pacific marine zones south of Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan. Expect light to moderate rain also to accompany this system. Now for the uncertainty...There details are murky on how far north this system will lift into the Bering Sea on Friday and its ultimate track on Friday evening into Saturday with regards to the mainland Southwest forecast. If the system system remains farther south along and tracks along the Aleutian Chain, expect the heaviest rain and gusty winds to remain confined more to the Aleutian Chain and AKPEN. Conversely, if the system ends up taking a more northern track into the Bering, expect a more expansive coverage or rain into the Pribilof Island and into Southwest Alaska Friday into Saturday. Stay tuned to the forecast as updates are made and details hopefully become more clear with time on the track of this system. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... The long term forecast starts on Saturday with troughing and frontal systems in the Gulf of Alaska. A front will move into Mainland Alaska on Saturday, bringing rainfall and elevated wind speeds. Rainfall is expected in Southcentral by Sunday as troughing moves into the Gulf of Alaska. Confidence on the intensity of rainfall is uncertain at this point and could be lighter or heavier depending on how strong the the fronts are. Sunday will see an upper level ridge start to build back into the Bering, the ridge will build through Tuesday, likely leading to widespread low stratus or fog for the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. By Monday, the current thinking is that the upper trough will move further south into the North Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. Once this happens, it is likely that conditions across Southern Alaska will begin to dry out with lingering showers remaining. Tuesday will be similar to Monday with skies clearing out further for mainland Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Daytime heating could lead to showers over inland areas. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC...Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will persist today, weakening a bit this morning and then reintensifying this afternoon. While winds wont be quite as strong as yesterday, gusts to 25 kts will be possible through much of the day. There will be showers in the vicinity of the Terminal this morning, with a chance for a shower to encroach on the terminal. Despite the rain, VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period. Turnagain winds will dissipate overnight and a seabreeze will take over, causing winds to turn southwesterly by mid morning tomorrow. && $$  389 FXUS64 KLCH 081237 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 737 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible along the sea breeze this afternoon. - Shower activity is expected to decrease for Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. - A weakness redevelops over the weekend along with deeper tropical like moisture helping to increase shower and thunderstorm activity. - Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.) && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection has dissipated through the past evening, however nocturnal showers may redevelop over the coastal waters and along the coast through early morning. The forecast reasoning hasn't changed much over the past few days. The subtropical ridge remains stretched from the Atlantic into the gulf. This is keeping a light onshore flow locally. Aloft, a weakness stretches along the mid-Mississippi Valley into west LA and east TX. This is between an upper ridge over the SW Atlantic and another ridge centered over the Rockies. The two upper ridge will bridge the gap over east TX and west LA through the second half of the work week. Rain chances will decrease today from the prior two days, however isolated to widely scattered convection is still anticipated this afternoon. Slightly lower chances are expected Thu and Fri. This weekend the ridge over the Rockies will build northeast and into the northern plains by Monday. As the ridge lifts northeast, a weakness aloft will once again develop over the norther gulf coast. Thunderstorm chances will once again increase. Temperatures will remain near climo norms for the date through the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 732 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most the day across the TAF sites. Only contingency are areas of VCTS that may encroach toward terminals. Winds expected to be light and southerly through this evening. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the gulf through the weekend. This will keep a light onshore flow in place. Isolated to widely scattered nocturnal showers and storms will be possible each morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 No fire weather concerns at this time. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected today along the sea breeze, however coverage will decrease Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds in. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05 AVIATION...30