612 FXUS63 KJKL 081330 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 930 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. - Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility through the next 7 days, with a threat of at least isolated flash flooding each day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire, with satellite imagery showing fog and low stratus burning off fairly rapidly. Primary update was to trend higher with Sky cover, utilizing more of a blend of models. Otherwise, updates to hourly T/Td grids were made in the near term, with the latest observations used to initialize the NDFD database. UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Almost a repeat of yesterday morning with a need for a Dense Fog Advisory, though it seems to be lifting to a stratus so may not be as much of a concern for valleys now. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These tweaks have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 445 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 08Z sfc analysis still shows a weak and ill defined pressure pattern over eastern Kentucky. This is allowing the diurnal cycle to be the main driver of the weather. At night, the convection dies off along with much of the clouds allowing very limited radiation cooling and the development of fog - becoming dense in the valleys. Again due to high humidity there is minimal terrain differences showing up in the temperatures. Specifically, readings are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s with similar dewpoints, amid light to calm winds. An SPS is again in effect for areas of dense fog early this morning across the entirety of the JKL CWA. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast even as they indicate more amplification to end the work week. Initially, they all depict a positively tilted 5h trough in place over the Tennessee Valley through western Kentucky. This trough will fill and dampen through Thursday as it slowly drifts east with very small height falls for the area. Late in the period the westerlies at mid-level running through the northern Ohio Valley start to speed up and settle south toward Kentucky. This essentially sets the stage for additional short waves - some probably convectively induced from upstream - to impact the area into the start of the weekend. Given the good enough agreement among the models through 00Z Friday, the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids with some adjustment applied for very minor terrain details in temperatures tonight. As for PoPs, consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage were included from the latest CAM runs. These were again smoothed and fitted to a reasonable diurnal trend - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics possibly extending the convection later into the nights than the past couple of them. Sensible weather features typical summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be warm and humid with mainly afternoon and evening convection. Overlaid on this fairly predictable pattern will be the potential for outside influence in the form of waves at mid level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly on Thursday and beyond. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - becoming cumulative by week's end with isolated flood concerns peaking. In addition to the excessive rain, we will also need to be on the look out for organized convection from those strengthening and nearing westerlies bringing perturbances closer to the area such that damaging wind gusts could be possible from any more organized storms Thursday afternoon and evening - especially over our western zones. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Thursday evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday. The previous long term discussion follows: Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast. Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday, as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the Intermountain West. For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall, and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday. Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday, with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The fog and low stratus are affecting the majority of the TAF sites at the 12Z issuance with VLIFR conditions reported. This is expected to possibly convert to or merge with a low cloud deck before clearing out. VFR conditions then return until more showers/ thunderstorms develop after daytime heating builds. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions likely lingering later into the evening than the past couple of nights. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...GREIF  867 FXUS63 KIND 081338 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 938 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry today with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, low chance for rain in southern Indiana - Strong to severe storms and flash flooding possible late Thursday into Thursday night - Additional rain Friday through the weekend with pockets of flooding && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 937 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments needed. Current KIND Radar imagery depicts isolated showers and storms south of the forecast area with quiet weather conditions across central Indiana. The isolated convection is associated with a weak mid-upper level disturbance which will crawl northward during the day. This may support isolated showers or storms over far southern counties by the afternoon. Otherwise, expect weak surface high pressure to remain the dominant weather feature promoting quiet weather for most areas. Look for another warm, but near seasonal day in the mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Overview. Dry and pleasant weather is expected for today with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. On Thursday, a strong cold front will move into the region, bringing a risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding Thursday night. This front will then stall over the area, keeping chances for showers and storms in the forecast from Friday through the weekend and into early next week, leading to the potential for flooding with total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches. Today through Thursday. The broader synoptic pattern today features mid-level ridging centered over the Ohio Valley that will gradually suppress southward as a northern stream shortwave trough digs across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure positioned over the eastern Great Lakes will maintain a dry easterly to southeasterly low-level flow across central Indiana. Forecast soundings exhibit a notable mid-level subsidence inversion along with deep dry air. This dry airmass and large-scale subsidence will inhibit convective development today, keeping the entire forecast area dry with afternoon high temperatures rising into the mid-80s. The synoptic pattern transitions rapidly on Thursday as a northern stream shortwave trough deepens over Ontario, driving a surface cold front south-southwestward toward the area. Ahead of this boundary, a robust low-level jet will advect an anomalously moist, tropical airmass northward. PWAT values are modeled to surge toward 2.00 to 2.25 inches, which sits well above the 90th percentile for early July. HREF and ensemble guidance indicates rapid destabilization Thursday afternoon ahead of the front, with MLCAPE expanding to 1500- 2500 J/kg. Convective initiation is expected along and ahead of the front by late Thursday afternoon and evening. While deep-layer shear remains modest at 25-35 knots, linear forcing along the front will support organized multicell clusters and transient supercell structures. Damaging downburst winds and isolated severe hail represent the primary convective hazards. A flash flooding threat will develop Thursday night. As the surface front slows down and aligns parallel to the mid-level westerly flow, Corfidi vectors indicate a high potential for cell training. Warm-cloud depths exceeding 12,000 feet will optimize warm-rain processes, yielding exceptionally high precipitation efficiency. Localized rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour are anticipated, capable of producing widespread flash flooding and areal flooding across central Indiana overnight. Friday Through Tuesday. From Friday through the weekend, the surface frontal zone is forecast to become quasi-stationary across the Ohio Valley as it encounters a flat sub-tropical ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast states, blocking its southward progression. Within this weak steering regime, successive low-amplitude mid-level shortwaves will track along the frontal zone, interacting with the lingering tropical moisture reservoir where PWATs remain elevated between 1.75 and 2.00 inches. This setup will support daily rounds of convective clusters and multi-cell arrays through Sunday. Medium-range ensemble guidance (GEFS and EPS) exhibits high consensus regarding a prolonged, heavy rainfall footprint across the Ohio Valley due to this stalled boundary. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 60-80% chance of widespread total rainfall exceeding 2.00 inches across central Indiana through Sunday evening. Within corridors experiencing persistent convective training or repeated cell tracking, probabilistic clusters indicate a 30-40% chance of localized totals exceeding 4.00 inches. Given the saturated antecedent conditions expected from Thursday night's convection, this additional rainfall will sustain and exacerbate risks for river flooding and ongoing areal flooding through the weekend. The unsettled pattern will gradually transition into early next week as the main upper-level trough shifts into eastern Canada, allowing northwest flow aloft to develop over the Midwest. While the primary stalled frontal boundary will diffuse or push slightly south of the state, embedded shortwaves within the northwest flow will maintain daily chance-level probabilities (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures throughout the period will remain near or slightly below seasonal normals in the low to mid-80s due to widespread cloud cover and precipitation, though high ambient dewpoints in the lower 70s will maintain elevated humidity levels. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 542 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impacts: - None Discussion: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of brief MVFR vsbys at BMG through 13Z. Diurnal cu is expected to develop towards 15Z with coverage expected to remain FEW to SCT. This cu will dissipate towards 00Z with high cloud coverage increasing through the night tonight. Winds will generally be light and variable through the TAF period, predominately out of the north through daybreak, then west to southwest during the day. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Melo AVIATION...White DISCUSSION...White  493 FXAK69 PAFG 081356 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 556 AM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather continues in the northern half of Alaska with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected in the northwest on Wednesday. In the southern half of Alaska it will be cooler and wetter, with between a quarter and a half an inch of rain possible for a large swath of the southern Interior through Thursday. Westerly winds in the West Coast and Western Interior will strengthen Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. Friday and Saturday, the Interior will warm back up ahead of a new system arriving on the West Coast. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Warm and dry conditions persist in the northern Interior through Saturday. Daytime temperatures in the mid 70s and low 80s are expected. A heat advisory is in effect for the Yukon Flats for highs near 85F again Wednesday. Temperatures cool in the southern Interior late Wednesday into Thursday. - Heavier rain is expected in the southern Interior Wednesday evening into Thursday. A swath from Fortymile Country to the Tanana Valley to the Kuskokwim Valley may receive up to a few quarters of an inch of rain and up to an inch or more in the Alaska Range. - Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Central Interior Wednesday afternoon. They are expected to develop mostly over the Ray Mountains and northern White Mountains, but may also form over high terrain farther east. - Southerly winds gusting up to 50 mph through the Alaska Range passes will die down by Wednesday afternoon. West Coast and Western Interior... - Scattered to isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon in the Western Interior from the Middle Yukon Valley to the Kobuk Valley. - Heavy rainfall along the northern slopes of the Western AK Range and in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley could support rain totals ranging from a quarter of an inch to over an inch. - Temperatures will begin to cool slightly with daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s in Interior valleys on Wednesday and dropping lower into the 70s Thursday. Along the coast, highs will be in the 50s/60s. - Stronger southwesterly/westerly winds will develop Wednesday afternoon and gusts up to 20 mph will be possible throughout the western Interior Valleys through Thursday night. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Hot temperatures will continue through Thursday. Daytime temperatures warm into the 50s near Utqiagvik to the low 80s on the eastern Arctic Plains. A heat advisory is in effect for the Arctic Plains for Thursday. - Max temperatures on the North Slope will be closer to 70 on Friday and Saturday, and into the 60s on Sunday. - Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the Brooks Range and Western Arctic Plains Wednesday. Then they will shift to the Central Brooks Range on Thursday and the eastern Range on Friday. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... A pair of lows, a 544 decameter in Bristol Bay and a 549 dam over the Panhandle, are responsible for cooler and wetter conditions in the Southern Interior Wednesday and Thursday. A ridge positioned over Canada but extending over Northern Alaska, is keeping the North Slope and Yukon Flats hot and dry. Between them, thunderstorms will develop. There are two main swaths of precipitation, one for each low. The first will arrive in the Western Alaska Range/Kuskokwim Valley Wednesday morning and rain through Wednesday evening. NBM 25th and 75th percentile create a range between 0.25-0.50" at the low end and 0.75 to 1.00" at the high end. Using McGrath as a sample point, many ensemble model members are forecasting between 0.5 and 0.75 inches with a few modelruns at an inch or more. I expect a widespread area in the Kuskokwim Valley of between a quarter and three quarters of an inch of rain with some areas where it is heavier seeing up to an inch on Wednesday. The second band of precipitation is associated with the low over the panhandle. It comes in from the east over Fortymile Country a bit later on Wednesday afternoon and continues to wrap around west into the Tanana Valley and Alaska Range on Thursday. Rain totals range between a quarter of an inch to an inch for much of the Interior south of Circle in a 24 hour period. The eastern Alaska Range could see around 2 inches due to upslope flow. Apart from the two main bands of precipitation, showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. The best chance for scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday will be in the Western Interior, from the Middle Yukon Valley, near Galena, and north into the Western Brooks Range. Isolated thunderstorms will have a chance to develop over the higher terrain in the rest of the northern Interior as well. The Yukon Flats and Eastern North Slope will remain dry and hot again today with temperatures peaking near 85F in the Yukon Flats and near 80 north of the Brooks Range. Thursday, as the Bristol Bay low moves east into the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge builds in from the Bering which will connect with the ridge over the Northeast. Weather will continue to be warm in the northern parts of the Interior, reaching the upper 70s and low 80s. Isolated thunderstorms will develop southeast of the new ridge axis, in the Central Interior. Widespread rain in the Southern Interior will dissipate through throughout the day as the low in the Gulf moves away, but it will mean cooler temperatures in the southern Interior on Thursday, likely below 70F. Friday, thunderstorm coverage shifts eastward along with the low in the Gulf and ridge which is becoming more established over the State. Isolated thunderstorms will develop in the eastern Interior and eastern Brooks Range Friday afternoon. Temperatures will begin to increase for the majority of the Interior, back into the upper 70s/low 80s. Broad scale troughing over the West Coast and Western Interior will keep temperatures cooler, in the 60s. && .FIRE WEATHER... As a low pressure system centered over Bristol Bay this morning tracks east towards the Gulf of Alaska, cooler temperatures and ample moisture will continue to advect north as gap winds ramp up through Alaska Range passes first followed by a broad increase in synoptic winds later today into Thursday regionwide. Following another active thunderstorm day across Western Alaska yesterday with over 3,000 lightning strikes, another unsettled day is on tap today with another round of scattered thunderstorms extending from the Lower/Middle Yukon north through the Brooks Range and onto the Southern Arctic Plains. Cooler temperatures and cloudier conditions building in farther south will work to limit convection, with onshore winds along the West Coast limiting thunderstorm development out that direction. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the Interior Kotzebue Sound and Northwest Interior north of Galena to Ambler, which will be coordinated with AICC later today on a potential upgrade to a Red Flag Warning. At this time, isolated to scattered coverage looks more likely farther inland up through the western North Slope region. While temperatures will see some relief over the southern half of our CWA, highs in the 70s to low 80s will continue for the Northern Interior north onto the Southern Arctic Plains. While the North Slope sees temperatures moderate later in the week, the warmest conditions across our region are expected to continue for the Yukon Flats. As the aforementioned low tracks east into the Gulf on Thursday, a northeast oriented upper level ridge will quickly fill in behind. This setup will allow for northeasterly flow to develop across the Southern Interior Wednesday night into Thursday, supporting more scattered to widespread light rain showers. With this precipitation will be a large cloud shield, further limiting convection and pushing best chances north of the Tanana to around the Fortymile, North-Central Interior, and Brooks Range. By Friday, the ridge axis will shift to being directly overhead and will lead to warming and drying conditions across Northern Alaska, with any isolated thunderstorms over the Central/Eastern Interior and Brooks Range trending more isolated. Looking ahead, there is increasing confidence towards another upper level trough working east from Siberia Friday into the weekend, with more widespread precipitation chance and cooler temperatures expected regionwide as thunderstorm coverage becomes increasingly isolated. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Saturday through Tuesday. Generally, models are in agreement that there will be an upper-level low near the Bering Strait on Saturday morning, though the ECMWF has weak ridging over the SE portions of the state while the GFS has ridging over the NE. Both models have the ridging weakening throughout the day and the GFS has a weaker low being pushed into the Gulf of Alaska Saturday night while the ECMWF doesn't. However the ECMWF does have the low that was near the Bering Strait going into the Gulf on Monday morning while the GFS keeps it over the Bering Sea and eventually move of mainland Alaska. This differs from what earlier model runs were hinting at, so it is possible that this forecast may change once again. Limited impacts are expected for either of these solutions, both producing scattered showers over the state throughout the period. Uncertainty remains regarding precipitation timing, location, and amount. Cooler, but relatively seasonal temperatures are still expected. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Fire Weather Watch for AKZ916-918-919-928. Heat Advisory for AKZ833. Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852. && $$ Troyke MacKay - Fire Wx Extended - Lewis  515 FXHW60 PHFO 081357 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 357 AM HST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce breezy to windy trades into the weekend. Showers will primarily focus along windward and mauka areas. An increase in shower coverage and frequency is anticipated later this week and into the weekend, with higher rain accumulations likely occurring during the overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and satellite imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward and mauka areas on the trade wind flow this morning. Strong high pressure centered far north of the state will continue to drive breezy to windy trades across the region through the weekend. Looking aloft, Hawaii will remain under weak ridging through early next week as it lies between two upper- level lows, one to the east, the other to the west. The breezy to windy trades will generally focus clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas throughout the period. However, batches of deep tropical moisture will move across the area tonight through Friday night, again Sunday into Monday, and more will follow next week. As these batches of deeper moisture move through with PWATs reaching 1.5 to 2 inches, the inversion will weaken and lift, increasing shower coverage and frequency across the state. In addition to the potential for an uptick in shower activity, dew points will be on the rise, leading to muggier conditions through the weekend. && .AVIATION... Breezy to locally trades will continue today and once again bring low clouds and scattered showers predominately to windward and mountain areas. There will also be isolated spillover into leeward sites. VFR will prevail for most sites, with occasional localized MVFR mainly for windward/mountain sites associated with the shower activity. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration above 2500 ft for north through east sections of the Big Island. Sierra may be dropped by later this morning as clouds and showers become less widespread. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure remains centered north of the state, which is driving fresh to strong trade winds across all coastal waters. No ASCAT pass available overnight, but hi-resolution guidance keeps Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds in many of the coastal water zones though tonight, so will be extending the current SCA through then. Very little chance is expected to the strength of the high or the pressure gradient across the islands, so will continue to remain around the advisory threshold for most waters over the coming days. Windy zones around Big Island and Maui County will likely be extended beyond tonight at a minimum for the SCA, with the possibility of more zones. A moderate, medium period south southwest (190-200 degrees) swell continues to generate moderate surf below advisory criteria along south facing shores. This swell energy will gradually lower through the remainder of the week. Expect small surf for south facing shores leading into this weekend, with mainly background energy. Another moderate, long-period south southwest swell (210 degrees) is expected to fill in Saturday night, but due to the direction of the source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell. Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. A small, moderate period west (280 degrees) swell is expected to arrive this weekend and linger into early next week. No significant swells are expected out of the north or northwest. Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the second half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Foster