819 FXUS62 KCHS 081403 CCA AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Charleston SC 1003 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions for the majority of the week. - 2) Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions for the majority of the week. The center of a H5 595 dam ridge will remain over middle FL this afternoon, with a ridge extending northward across the Southeast U.S. today. The ridging will provide the region with very warm llvl thicknesses. An area of broad low pressure is forecast to remain over the central Carolinas this afternoon, supporting SW winds across SE GA and SC. Due to the SW winds, the sea breeze may begin an hour or two later this afternoon compared to earlier this week. Given the warm llvl thicknesses, slower sea breeze, and decent insolation, high temperatures in the upper 90s will be common this afternoon, some locations may peak at 100 degrees. However, 90th percentile guidance indicates that KCHS will likely continue the 2nd longest streak of consecutive days with temperatures <100 degrees on record, 2596 days. The record number of days in 5784 which ended 6/18/1970. The hot temperatures combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s should yield heat index values greater than 108 degrees for most of the forecast area. Coastal counties of SC/GA are forecast to see heat index values to peak between 110 to 115 degrees. The dangerous heat index values will be highlighted with an Extreme Heat Warning, elsewhere a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM. Late afternoon thunderstorms may provide some pockets of relief from the heat. The heat wave is expected to continue through the end of the week with heat indices likely around the 105 to 110 range and highs in the mid to upper 90s area wide. Heat products look to continue at least through Thursday and possibly into Friday with the highest probability of reaching advisory criteria mainly east of I-95 and closer to the coast including the Charleston and Savannah metro areas. While heat indices may not be as high as this afternoon, the bigger issue will be long duration heat stress mainly along the coastal areas where heat indices might not drop to below 100 degrees until well into the evening and overnight hours with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Several days of intense heat and minimal cooling overnight has been reflected in the HeatRisk product with widespread Major (level 3 of 4) and a corridor of Extreme (level 4 of 4) along the immediate coast Thursday and Friday. Regardless of any heat products this will continue to bring a risk of heat-related impacts, especially to those more vulnerable to heat or those without adequate cooling/hydration. KEY MESSAGE 2: Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. Hot and humid conditions should yield moderate instability across the coastal counties once the sea breeze develops and pushes inland this afternoon into early this evening. Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS indicated very little thunderstorm coverage this afternoon, due to dewpoint mixing well into the 60s west of the sea breeze. However, HREF does indicate isolated to scattered thunderstorms near the sea breeze this afternoon. The forecast will feature SCHC to CHC PoPs across the coastal counties during the late afternoon and evening. This pattern is expected to continue for Thursday through Saturday, with isolated coverage on Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will likely increase Sunday into Monday as a more potent shortwave trough moves across the mid-atlantic. Expect storm coverage to increase Sunday afternoon compared to the normal summertime pattern. Storms will likely be focused along a sagging front that will slowly drift south with time. Given the increased coverage and maybe a little more deep layer flow, a couple strong to severe storms with damaging winds may be possible on Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z TAFs: Terminals will remain VFR with light southwest winds this morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the sea breeze this afternoon, expected to develop near or over the terminals between 20-24Z, highlighted with PROB30. In the wake of the sea breeze, winds will shift from the south-southwest with gusts near 20 kts, especially at KJZI. Convection and wind gusts should dissipated early this evening. Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be a risk for tstm impacts at the terminals each afternoon/evening, especially at KCHS and KSAV. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: The pressure pattern should support south- southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts, with occasional gusts into the low 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to favor 3 to 4 ft. Thursday and Friday: Surges in the wake of the sea breeze may result in southwest winds to increase each afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday. Wind gusts may peak around 25 kts, possibly requiring Small Craft Advisories. The short duration of the elevated winds should keep wave heights between 3 to 4 ft. This weekend into Monday: The pressure pattern should support south- southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts, with occasional gusts into the low 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to favor 3 to 4 ft. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 8: KCHS: 100/2016 KSAV: 101/2010 July 9: KCXM: 99/1986 July 10: KCHS: 100/1986 KCXM: 99/1986 KSAV: 102/1879 July 11: KCXM: 100/2001 July 12: KCXM: 97/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 8: KCXM: 83/2016 KSAV: 80/1990 July 9: KCHS: 80/1998 KCXM: 85/1998 KSAV: 80/1883 July 10: KCHS: 81/1986 KCXM: 82/1986 July 11: KCHS: 80/2016 KCXM: 82/2016 July 12: KCHS: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101-114-115-137-216-238-240. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217>219-239-241. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ043-044-147. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ045-148>152. MARINE...None. && $$ NED  926 FXUS61 KLWX 081405 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1005 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some minor adjustments may be needed for sky, rain chances, and temperatures today, but the overall theme of the forecast remains the same. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Brief cool down before a warm up through Friday, which is accompanied by daily shower and thunderstorm chances. - 2) Turning cooler with less humidity over the weekend, but daily storm chances persist. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Brief cool down before a warm up through Friday, which is accompanied by daily shower and thunderstorm chances. The cold front is now positioned across North Carolina. While the area is post- frontal in nature, moisture content remains high as noted by the upper 60s to low 70s dew points. Additionally, this is also supported by the elevated precipitable water values, averaging around 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Showers continue to develop in this environment given some very weak instability combined with convergence on the southwest periphery of high pressure over New England along with easterly upslope flow. Most of the showers are light to moderate in nature, with the axis gradually shifting southwest as drier air works in from the northeast. This dry air is leading to a break in the clouds across northeast Maryland, while mixing is more pronounced across portions of the Allegheny Highlands with the dissipation of morning fog/stratus. Clouds will be more persistent in between within the convergence axis. Today's shower and thunderstorm chances will stay mainly near and west of U.S. 15. As an upper low initially over western Tennessee should continue to shear on its eastward approach toward the Appalachian Mountains. Some added lift with the approach of this trough will work in conjunction with terrain circulations to aid in diurnal convective development. Weak shear profiles will limit any severe threat; however, there is a non-zero flood threat for locations hit by recent heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the Blue Ridge westward. Overall temperatures should stay fairly close to yesterday's numbers. Most can expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, with slightly cooler readings in the mountains. Moving toward Thursday, all signs point toward an uptick in convection across the Mid-Atlantic region. The earlier mentioned upper trough across Tennessee is likely to push through during the core heating hours. With 500-mb winds approaching 30 to 35 knots, this will contribute to deep layer shear to around 30 knots. Steep low-level lapse rates are forecast to contribute to downdraft CAPEs near 1,000 J/kg. This would be supportive for some degree of damaging wind threat, particularly in the taller updrafts. As such, the Storm Prediction Center continues to advertise a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Thursday from I-81 eastward to the Atlantic coast. A flash flood threat would accompany any slower moving convection or areas which see repeat activity. By Friday, this is likely to mark the warmest day of the week with high temperatures returning to the low 90s. However, for early/mid July standards, this is fairly close to climatology. Further storm chances arise, particularly during the afternoon to evening hours, as a trailing more pronounced shortwave nears the region. This system also drives a cold front through by early in the weekend. Until this occurs, will maintain higher chances for showers and thunderstorms. While convective-scale details vary among models, there is certainly a non-zero threat of flash flooding over the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning cooler with less humidity over the weekend, but daily storm chancespersist. On Saturday morning, the longwave pattern indicates a broad trough will begin to exit the Canadian Maritimes down along the Mid-Atlantic coast. This brings a slow moving cold front through the area on Saturday before the system settles over North Carolina by late in the weekend. Post-frontal northerlies will bring a gradual downtick in dew points and thus humidity levels. Depending on how quickly this front tracks through, some shower chances likely continue across the area for portions of the weekend. Daily temperatures fall in the post-frontal environment, generally running around 2 to 5 degrees below average. Highs each days should be in the low/mid 80s, with 70s across mountain locales. Heading into early next week, the synoptic-scale pattern features a broad ridge over the Four Corners into the Northern Plains. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft should occur off to the east over the northeastern U.S. In this regime, box- and-whisker temperature plots show near to below average temperatures for early next week. Heights begin to build toward the middle of next week as the upstream ridge attempts to expand eastward. Temperatures likely return to the 90s as this occurs. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The combination of light onshore coupled with a moist boundary layer has supported low ceilings. These bases have been teeteringon the IFR/MVFR threshold, though slow lifting should occur through the day. It may take until the mid/late afternoon to fully return to VFR as low clouds linger in the onshore flow, with the most persistent clouds across MRB, IAD, and DCA. While some scattered showers are around this morning, these are gradually shifting away from the terminals. The greatest chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon will be at CHO. Winds gradually shift to south to southeasterly by this evening before turning calm tonight. Another round of low clouds are looking likely which would support additional restrictions. Daily convective chances return to the picture on Thursday and Friday. This is in response to a series of shortwave troughs that track in from the west. Convective-driven restrictions are possible in this environment, particularly during the afternoon to evening hours. Winds remain southerly on Thursday before shifting to westerly by Friday. The next cold front moves through on Saturday which yields a shift to northerly winds. Some frontal showers may support a few restrictions before the system moves toward the Virginia/North Carolina by Sunday. At that point, winds turn more easterly with mainly VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Typical summertime gradients should keep the marine waters free of any long-fused hazardous weather products (i.e., Small Craft Advisories). However, as usual, hazardous boating conditions will often be driven by convection, strong outflows/gust fronts, and frequent lightning. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Thursday into Friday as a series of shortwave troughs move in from the west. Special Marine Warnings will be needed for the more robust thunderstorm activity. During this period, winds shift to southerly for Thursday with gusts up to around 10 to 15 knots. Thereafter, winds turn more westerly on Friday with a slight decrease in gusts. For the weekend, a cold front tracks through on Saturday which may support some hazardous marine conditions due to thunderstorms. Winds will be out of the north before shifting to easterly for the second half of the weekend. Gusts each day should top out around 10 to 15 knots. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Light onshore (east to northeast flow) the next couple days followed by southerly flow will cause rising tides over the next couple of days. This will likely result in near minor flooding of vulnerableshoreline the second half of this week. Annapolis will likely reach the minor flood threshold this evening, and potentially Thursday evening. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO AVIATION...ADS/BRO MARINE...BRO  430 FXUS62 KKEY 081410 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1010 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Saharan Air Layer is moving across the Florida Keys. The SAL is on track to lift out of the Keys by the weekend. - Heat will be the primary weather concern this week. Heat indices may creep towards 110 before the weekend. - Shower coverage is expected to increase at the end of the week while a low in the upper atmosphere tracks westward across the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A drier pattern is setting up across the Florida Keys this morning. A glance at the sky indicates a washed out, or milky, color amidst a general lack of cloud cover. The morning 12Z KKEY sounding offered an explanation, the Saharan Air Layer moved over the Florida Keys before sunrise. The sounding sampled a pronounced inversion just above 4000 feet and a dry adiabatic lapse rate to 700 mb. Satellite observations from CIMSS also show a distinct layer of drier air over the Florida Keys. While the SAL will define part of the weather this afternoon, that is not the only weather feature of note. Breezes across the reef freshened to gentle to moderate before sunrise. Last night's slight northward movement of the Atlantic ridge could let moderate to fresh breezes develop across the southern waters of the Florida Keys. In sum, relatively expect minimal shower coverage, sustained southeasterly breezes, and reduced visibility from the Saharan air. No changes are necessary for the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A surface Atlantic ridge stretching westward across the Florida Peninsula has now lifted northward into Central Florida. This with the ridge strengthening slightly will help to freshen breezes across Keys waters over the next few days. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening hours and lull during the day. At least cautions will be required periodically for portions of Keys waters through this stretch. Winds will trend downwards this weekend as the ridge weakens. From synopsis, winds will trend upwards over the next couple of days as the Atlantic ridge across Central Florida strengthens. Light to gentle breezes will become moderate to fresh by tonight. Winds will tend to peak in the evenings and lull slightly during the day. At least marine cautions will be required to most Keys waters over the next few days. Breezes are expected to ease back gradually through the weekend. Shower and thunder chances will be slight or less over the next few days, but trend sharply upwards late in the week as a weak low level trough pushes westward across our area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming period. Winds are expected to freshen in the late afternoon and overnight. VIS will be slightly reduced by the presence of the Saharan Air Layer over the Florida Keys, but not to the point of MVFR VIS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The Atlantic ridge will remain across Central Florida and help drive moderate east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys. A few hours of breezy conditions will be likely in the very late afternoon and evening hours and tend to lull during the day. Forecast soundings indicate a healthy dose of lower level inhibition and drying based just above 900 mb. This should help to keep rain and thunder chances slight to nil over the next couple of days. Expect highs to remain near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Rather humid conditions will persist due to dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Through the latter portion of the week and into the weekend, a cut off upperlow will wobble its way westward across the Central Bahamas and into Cuba. An associated lower level trough is still expected to work its way across our general area late in the work week and the start of the weekend. While guidance has been trending weaker with the inverted trough, they still depict subtle and messy lower level troughing and associated swathes of increasing moisture. Expect rain and thunder chances to pick up Thursday night and lingering into the weekend. Winds should trend downwards slightly through this period as the surface ridge lifts further northward and weakens slightly. The lower levels are expected to dry out considerably beginning in the second half of the weekend, allowing rain and thunder chances to come down. Weakening ridging will try to hold on across the Florida Peninsula and keep breezes generally gentle to moderate east to southeasterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 84 91 83 / 20 10 0 20 Marathon 90 84 90 83 / 20 0 0 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  734 FXUS61 KOKX 081416 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1016 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gradual warming trend through the end of the week. 2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday afternoon and evenings. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure moves into the open Atlantic today, while weak high pressure slides southwest of the region, allowing for dry conditions expected through Thursday morning. Temperatures will be slightly below average with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The high pressure will shift to the southeast and offshore on Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs reaching near seasonable levels in the lower to middle 80s. The warmest day of forecast period will likely be Friday. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s. Max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures/heat indices will be lower for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The forecast heat indices on Friday are below the 1 day heat advisory criteria (100-104 for any length of time). .KEY MESSAGE 2... A weak shortwave aloft is forecast to pass across the northeast on Thursday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is likely to set up across the area. The combination of these features supports the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Modeling has differed in the placement of the focus for convection, but current consensus indicates the highest probabilities across the southern half of the area including the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. Showers/storms that develop in the afternoon may gradually work east towards southern CT and Long Island in the evening. CAPE values are not too impressive with forecast soundings indicating 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE away from any sea breeze influence. 0-6km shear is weak with on average of about 20 kt. This should limit severe potential and SPC currently only has the area in a general thunderstorm risk for Day 2/Thursday. A slightly more amplified shortwave trough axis is expected to pass across the northeast on Friday. This system should drag a cold front through the area late Friday into Friday night. The system will bring potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. The latest model consensus brings the highest probabilities to areas north and west of the NYC metro. Shear is a bit stronger averaging around 25-30 kt with similar CAPE valued as Thursday. Specific details on any severe weather threat are uncertain since this is still 3 days out, but CSU MLP does indicate a marginal probability for a severe thunderstorm. PWATs are progged to range from 1.75-2.00 inches both days. Some lingering MVFR at KGON through about 12Z.It is too early to determine if there will be any flooding impacts and WPC currently does not have the area in an excessive rainfall outlook. However, given the high moisture content, any thunderstorm can produce heavy rainfall rates. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The ensemble mean synoptic pattern across the CONUS indicates ridging across the west and NW flow/troughing over the east and Western Atlantic. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds over the terminals today and heads offshore this evening.VFR. NNE to NE winds less than 10 kt will shift to the S/SW early Wednesday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday-Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday-Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet through 2 pm due to lingering 4-5 ft seas. Seas will diminish on all waters today with high pressure returning. A frontal system passes across the waters late Friday into Friday night. Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV/MW AVIATION...DBR MARINE...NV/MW  774 FXUS62 KTAE 081418 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1018 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1018 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Rain chances decrease some the next few days but a typical summer time pattern remains. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures expected throughout the week. Heat advisory conditions likely across the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1018 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The forecast is currently on track, updates do not appear necessary this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The western Atlantic ridge begins to exert its influence on the sensible weather today as it builds west. Drier mid-level air rotating in from the south and southeast should keep our POPs lower across the eastern Florida Big Bend and into portions of Georgia. Elsewhere, across the Florida Panhandle and western Florida Big Bend, favorable seabreeze convergence should at least help keep isolated to scattered shower and storm activity around. With the ridge building, we should see temperatures climb a few degrees, especially across our eastern zones where POPs are lower. With this in mind, have issued a heat advisory for these areas. While heat indices across much of the area touch or slightly exceed 108, we have not issued a heat advisory for the entire forecast area. The main arguments against one across the Panhandle and parts of the Big Bend were the higher rain chances, and which will provide relief in the afternoon. For tonight, rain chances drop off after sunset but like the last few days, late overnight isolated showers/storms can't be ruled out along/near the coastal regions on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Rain chances will likely become more isolated Thursday and Friday as the upper level ridge remains prominent. A few weak shortwaves moving north of the ridge could help spawn better chances inland across our AL/GA counties. Additionally, some heat advisory concerns could continue. By the weekend rain chances will slowly increase as the Western Atlantic ridge becomes suppressed by several impulses moving down the eastern side of an expansive upper level ridge across the western US. By next week rain chances could return to above normal levels as an active pattern sets up on the southern periphery of the large upper level ridge across the northern US. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Made some minor tweaks to the TAFs from the 6Z package with respect to convective timing based on the latest CAMs guidance and radar trends. Highest confidence in thunderstorms this aftn is at TLH where TEMPO groups are in place. Added a PROB30 for TSRA at DHN as signals have increased for aftn convection invof the terminal. Otherwise, VFR conds prevail away from thunderstorms amidst SW winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through Thursday, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Relatively low fire weather concerns, outside ofhigher dispersions across southwest Georgia counties, will prevail the next few days. Afternoon humidities will be in the 40 to 50% range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon with coverage decreasing the rest of the week, with only isolated storms possible Thursday and Friday. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest through the period but localized increases across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons. Main concerns outside fire weather will be heat indices possibly reaching advisory criteria today with pockets reaching near 110 F. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A typical summertime pattern will remain in place today but lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely by the end of the week. Widespread rainfall amounts of less than an inch are forecast with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. No flooding is expected, although rainfall amounts will increase again by early next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 76 95 76 / 40 10 20 0 Panama City 91 81 92 81 / 30 10 20 10 Dothan 94 76 95 75 / 20 20 30 10 Albany 96 77 95 76 / 20 10 20 0 Valdosta 97 76 97 76 / 20 10 10 0 Cross City 95 77 96 77 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 90 81 90 81 / 20 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ018-019-028-029- 034-118-128-134. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ124>131-144>148- 158>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  600 FXAK67 PAJK 081443 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 643 AM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SHORT TERM.../through Friday/...A weakening low in the eastern gulf has become disconnected from its upper level support, with most associated shower activity further east over Sumner Strait and Frederick Sound as of this discussion. This feature should gradually drift eastward before eventually being overtaken by an approaching frontal wave from the south later in the day today. This approaching wave will bring further enhanced shower activity from south to north, expected to reach Frederick Sound and central Chatham Strait, though scattered showers remain possible for the inner channels as far north as Gustavus and Juneau. Though precipitation totals are not expected to be as high as the the system at the start of this week, heavier showers are expected for the far southern panhandle with a slight chance of thunderstorm development through this afternoon. Even without lightning, heavier showers could bring significant drops in visibility and gusty erratic winds which could be hazardous to boaters caught unprepared. The far northern gulf and inner channels look to remain fairly dry for this same period, though for the northern gulf coast this could lead to some patchy fog Thursday morning, as Yakutat cleared out in the early morning today just in time for shallow fog to move in briefly. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably warm through the period, with slightly warmer temperatures up north away from aforementioned showers and associated cloud cover today and Thursday. Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week, with a wave originating in Canada pushing showers into the northern panhandle Friday. Stay tuned for updates today and Thursday on how things will play out heading into the weekend. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/...After the low pressure on Thursday brings a front across the southern half of the panhandle, this low will move southeastward and dissipate quickly as it gets near Haida Gwaii overnight into Friday morning. The remnants of this low will keep some precipitation chances into the morning for the far southern panhandle Friday. As for the northern panhandle, a low to the NE of the panhandle in Canada will bring a band of showers southeastward Friday. The timing and extent of this easterly wave is still uncertain at this time, associated with some disagreement on the timing of a shortwave and upper level band of vorticity moving through the area around the upper level low in Canada, and the overall presence of the upper level low into the end of the week as some ridging attempts to build over the interior and Yukon. The confidence as of now is for the wave to push through the northern panhandle from Skagway and Haines down Lynn Canal through Friday morning, into the central panhandle by the afternoon hours, before just grazing the coastal mountains of the southern panhandle by the evening. This uncertain pattern continues into the weekend as the possibility of some weak easterly waves impacting the panhandle lasts through Sunday night with this main low sitting to the NE. None of these waves appear to have as much confidence past Friday's shortwave, but with the ridging building over the Gulf and panhandle into this weekend, the chances for drier weather and breaks in the cloud cover is higher for this weekend across much of the panhandle as this more benign pattern sets in. && .AVIATION/...Until 12Z Thursday/...Overall, a low & its associated front approach & bring their impacts through the southern & central Panhandle from midday today through tonight, progressively lowering flight conditions through the MVFR category, approaching IFR late tonight for more southern areas. The restof Southeast Alaska will be in the MVFR/VFR category range, leaning more toward the VFR side as the aforementioned front will have less influence the farther north you go through the Panhandle. Early this morning, PAYA experienced some shallow fog, bringing VISs down to LIFR for a short period, but that has since thinned-out since sunrise. Per usual, the northern Lynn Canal region will remain breezy through this evening, especially the PAGY area due to a tighter southerly pressure gradient over that area. It will get breezy out of the southeast as the front approaches the Clarence Strait area, including PAKT this afternoon through the end of the TAF period. LLWS does not look to be of significant concern. && .MARINE... Inside Waters(Southeast Alaskan Inner Channels): A low with its associated front will push its way northeastward into the Southern Inner Channels this afternoon into Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 25 kt for the tonight period for the Dixon Entrance & southern Clarence Strait before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. The rest of the Inner Channels should remain around 20 kt or less during the same timeframe. Then, the pressure gradient relaxes & winds & seas calm as a ridge of high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday. Outside Waters(Eastern Gulf of Alaska): A low with its associated front will push its way northeastward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska late this morning into Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 20-25 kt along the front just to the northeast of the low center tonight over the east-central & southeastern Gulf before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. Expect 7 to 9 ft seas over the aforementioned region through Thursday evening. Then, the pressure gradient relaxes & winds & seas appreciably calm as a ridge of high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-662-663. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...Contino AVIATION...JLC MARINE...JLC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  576 FXUS61 KOKX 081442 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1042 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gradual warming trend through the end of the week. 2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday afternoon and evenings. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure moves into the open Atlantic today, while weak high pressure slides southwest of the region, allowing for dry conditions expected through Thursday morning. Temperatures will be slightly below average with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The high pressure will shift to the southeast and offshore on Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs reaching near seasonable levels in the lower to middle 80s. The warmest day of forecast period will likely be Friday. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s. Max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures/heat indices will be lower for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The forecast heat indices on Friday are below the 1 day heat advisory criteria (100-104 for any length of time). .KEY MESSAGE 2... A weak shortwave aloft is forecast to pass across the northeast on Thursday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is likely to set up across the area. The combination of these features supports the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Modeling has differed in the placement of the focus for convection, but current consensus indicates the highest probabilities across the southern half of the area including the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. Showers/storms that develop in the afternoon may gradually work east towards southern CT and Long Island in the evening. CAPE values are not too impressive with forecast soundings indicating 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE away from any sea breeze influence. 0-6km shear is weak with on average of about 20 kt. This should limit severe potential and SPC currently only has the area in a general thunderstorm risk for Day 2/Thursday. A slightly more amplified shortwave trough axis is expected to pass across the northeast on Friday. This system should drag a cold front through the area late Friday into Friday night. The system will bring potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. The latest model consensus brings the highest probabilities to areas north and west of the NYC metro. Shear is a bit stronger averaging around 25-30 kt with similar CAPE valued as Thursday. Specific details on any severe weather threat are uncertain since this is still 3 days out, but CSU MLP does indicate a marginal probability for a severe thunderstorm. PWATs are progged to range from 1.75-2.00 inches both days. Some lingering MVFR at KGON through about 12Z.It is too early to determine if there will be any flooding impacts and WPC currently does not have the area in an excessive rainfall outlook. However, given the high moisture content, any thunderstorm can produce heavy rainfall rates. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The ensemble mean synoptic pattern across the CONUS indicates ridging across the west and NW flow/troughing over the east and Western Atlantic. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds over the terminals today and heads offshore this evening.VFR conditions are expected. NNE to NE winds less than 10 kt will shift to the S/SW early this afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday-Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday-Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet through 2 pm due to lingering 4-5 ft seas. Seas will diminish on all waters today with high pressure returning. A frontal system passes across the waters late Friday into Friday night. Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV/MW AVIATION...BJG/DBR MARINE...NV/MW  636 FXUS63 KBIS 081444 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 944 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures remain today, followed by a strong warming trend through the weekend. - Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. - Very hot this weekend and early next week, with daily high temperatures and maximum heat indices around 95 to 105. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Continued broad, low PoPs across parts of the north and central to account for widely scattered showers this morning. Otherwise, going forecast looks good for today. UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated showers continue over portions of northwest and central ND early this morning. Made some minor adjustments to pops to account for this. Stratus/fog has not been as forecast as was feared, but low ceilings and patchy fog do remain in a few areas this morning. Overall few changes needed for the early morning update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A broad quasi-zonal upper level flow will continue over the region through the remainder of the workweek, followed by significant upper level ridging over a large portion of the western and central Conus. This could bring a significant prolonged heatwave to western and central ND this weekend into early next week. Currently, the latest satellite imagery show a number of waves moving through the broad upper level flow. Latest radar shows an area of isolated showers situated over northwest ND. Patches of low stratus/fog have been noted under breaks of high level cirrus, but as of yet nothing widespread. As we head into the early morning hours guidance suggests, and it seems reasonable, given the low T/Td spreads we will see an increase in stratus and fog. Guidance does favor western and southern portions of the forecast area. For today, forecast soundings suggest instability will remain weak this morning. However with an approaching shortwave currently indicated over eastern Montana, there may be enough forcing to keep a mention of showers in the forecast. Soundings dry out this afternoon and mostly dry conditions are expected. Afternoon convection off the higher terrain in Wyoming and southeast Montana should remain south and east of the forecast area later today, but an evening thunderstorm can not be ruled out in the far southwest. Another wave tracking along the International Border may fire convection over central Montana, and if it holds together could move into far western ND towards daybreak Thursday. The severe threat by this time would be low. On Thursday, the aforementioned wave tracks across the state and a surface trough lingers over the area. It will become very unstable over western ND Thursday afternoon with RAP forecast MLCAPE values around 3000 J/Kg. Bulk shear is marginal, ranging from 25 to 35 knots. Forcing for ascent will be modest with only weak impulses moving through a slowly building ridge. If there is enough forcing to overcome some low level capping, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across most of the forecast area Thursday. Shear vectors are not completely perpendicular to the surface boundary but enough so that a supercell thunderstorm can't be ruled out. The main threats Thursday afternoon and evening would be large hail to the size of golf balls and 60 mph winds. After Thursday, attention shifts to the potential for a prolonged heat threat through the weekend and into early next week. Friday will see daytime highs climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s, but the most impactful heat will be over the weekend and early next week. Daytime highs of 90to 100 on Saturday, and 95 to 105 Sunday may necessitate the need for a long term Heat Hazard, especially since overnight low temperatures remain at or above the 70 degree mark. At this time, Sunday looks to be the most oppressive day with heat indices above 100 degrees across most of the forecast area, and up to 108 degrees in a few areas. However if you consider the HeatRisk and WBGT, a case could be made for a long term hazard encompassing Saturday through Monday, given the warm overnight lows. We still have a while to ponder, but if current forecast trends hold, it will definitely be a very hot weekend. With a lot of outdoor events going on, we will definitely be increasing our heat related messaging. The oppressive heat should limit thunderstorm activity over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Low stratus and fog at KDIK to begin the 12Z TAF period. Kept a mention of low ceilings and some fog through 16 UTC. Elsewhere no mention of MVFR or lower ceilings/vsbys, but they can not be ruled out at any site through mid morning. Once VFR conditions are reached at KDIK, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period at all sites. Will need to monitor for a possible mention of patchy fog Thursday morning, but to uncertain to add with this issuance. Surface winds light and variable around 12 knots or less through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Jones DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH