033 FXUS64 KHUN 081535 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The fog has been stubborn to erode this morning but visibilities finally improved after 8am. Today, we will have another low to medium chance (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms across the TN Valley. Today, an upper low in the southern OH Valley will become an open wave today and there is a stationary boundary to our north as well. This boundary will scoot southward as the wave swings through today. Combined with lingering boundaries out there, we'll see low chances (20-60%) across the TN Valley, mainly this afternoon and early evening. Highest coverage seems to be north of the TN River, closer to that boundary. Instability will be just over 1,000 J/kg, with weak bulk shear and high PWATS just under 2", leaving our main hazards as gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Daytime highs will reach the upper 80s to 90 degrees with heat index values in the upper 90s. Tonight, with an abundance of moisture in place and light/variable winds, patchy fog is possible once again. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 On Thursday, that open wave will weaken and continue to lift northeastward but the stationary boundary that scooted southward may stall over the TN Valley. This will bring low to medium chances (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. These storms can create gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However, would not rule out a downburst with the PWATS ~1.6", DCAPE ~1300 J/Kg, ML CAPE 1600-1900 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees. SPC has placed us in a Marginal outlook (risk level 1/5) on Friday. A weak trough will be along the eastern seaboard with a few weak disturbances sliding through ahead of a shortwave up in the Midwest. Friday afternoon and evening forecast soundings look even better for an opportunity to see downbursts. Instability will increase towards 3,000 J/kg, PWATS ~1.8, ThetaE difference ~30C and pretty steep low level lapse rates. Local strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the primary hazards. Looking into Saturday, forecast soundings suggest another potential afternoon and evening with storms that could produce downbursts. The storms may be the main story, however do not forget about the heat. Heat index values Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Stay weather aware Thursday through Saturday and ensure you stay safe indoors, outdoors, and on the go. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures will be near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much of a threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration. Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may also result in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Low stratus in addition to fog has formed overnight and some of the fog has become dense in a few locations. For the terminals, this has led to mainly MVFR conditions at MSL, but varying VIS at HSV. Therefore, have included temporary low VIS and CIGs at both TAF sites through 14Z (but VIS down to 1/4SM at times for HSV). We will continue to monitor this over the next few hours, but any fog and/or stratus should erode through mid-morning. Then, the main concern for the day will be showers and storms this afternoon. There remains uncertainty in exactly where and when storms will develop and track; however, these bring the potential for temporary reductions in VIS and CIGs as well as gusty winds and frequent lightning where they do develop. Showers and storms are then slated to diminish this evening. Outside of storms, expect calm winds at night with westerly winds around 5 knots or so during the day. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....JMS LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...26  013 FXUS65 KTWC 081534 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 833 AM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day this week, with the potential for an increase in storm coverage over the weekend. Hot temperatures for much of the week before cooling off this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Very little change in the forecast today versus 24 hours ago. The two main weather impacts continue to be the hot temperatures/Extreme Heat and thunderstorm chances today. High temperatures will top out 4-7 degrees above normal and the Extreme Heat Warning is now in effect until 8 pm MST Thursday. For more information on this product, please refer to PHXNPWTWC. Blended total precipitable water satellite imagery shows PW values ranging from 0.80" along the New Mexico state line to around 1.40" over central/western Pima County. The CAMS show the extent of the convective activity today will be further west than yesterday, or roughly east of a Oracle to Sells line. The Sky Island Mountains and White Mountains will be the first to initiate between noon and 1 pm, working into the lower deserts later in the afternoon through the evening hours. Steering flow today will be northeast to east at 10- 15 knots. The main threats today will be gusty outflow winds to 40- 45 mph, blowing dust along Interstate 10 in both Pinal and Cochise counties, as well as brief localized heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. The current forecast is on track. No planned updates to the grids/text products. For more information on the latter periods of the forecast, please refer to PREV DISCUSSION section below. && .AVIATION...Valid through 09/18Z. Generally clear skies/SKC conditions becoming FEW-SCT (locally BKN) at 9k-11k ft AGL aft 08/19z with ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. There is the potential for outflow winds up to 45 kts between 08/20Z and 09/04Z. Clouds and thunderstorms diminishing after 09/04z. Outside of any thunderstorm outflows, SFC wind less than 12 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Above normal high temperatures (4-7 degrees) through Thursday, with highs lowering to around normal over the upcoming weekend. Min RH values in the lower elevations in the 13-17 percent range through Friday, increasing 5-10 percent by late in the weekend into early next week. Outside of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph into early next week. There will be a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon/evening hours this work week. There is the potential for increasing thunderstorm chances and coverage this weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION...The monsoon ridge axis continues to slowly re- orientate itself into a E-W orientation over the next 24 hrs with the high centered W of nrn Baja. Well above normal high temperatures continue with moderate to major HeatRisk for much of the area. Extreme Heat Warning for the much of Pima county, south-central and southeast Pinal county and the Gila River vly of Graham county has been extended until Thursday evening. Early morning satellite imagery showed partly to mostly cloudy conditions while KEMX radar showed elevated light showers, sprinkles or virga moving W-SW across the area. Clouds/showers dissipating by 4 am. Satellite derived PWAT values are up, for the most part versus 24 hours ago, and ranged from 0.80" east to up to 1.35" from Tucson west. to 1.15". At the surface dew points were ranged from the upper 40s to the upper 50s with localized spots in the lower 60s. Convective activity today will shift a bit further west than yesterday with western extent over south-central Pinal and central Pima county. Main threat from storms this afternoon and early evening will be outflow winds of 35 to 50 mph, blowing dust (especially W/NW of Tucson) and brief moderate rain with strongest cells. Steering flow will move storms from generally the west. Thursday and Friday: The center of the monsoon high that is west of nrn Baja today lifts NE across the state during this period. Some minor drying of PWATs across the area which may limit thunderstorm activity to mainly south and east of Tucson both days. Highs remaining on the hot side. This weekend: As the monsoon high moves into the central Rockies the flow aloft becomes more favorable out of the E-SE. PWATs, per ensembles, increase areawide thanks to moisture influx from Sonoran thunderstorm outflows moving north and potential gulf surges. The added moisture this will increase the flash flooding threat with Saturday, at this time, likely having the highest threat. Highs will be around normal. Active monsoon pattern continues early next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ501-502- 504>506-509. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  848 FXUS65 KPIH 081559 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 959 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms - Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon for fire weather zone 427 due to thunderstorms - Drier weather returns for Thursday and beyond with hot conditions likely for the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect another round of thunderstorms this afternoon. Best chances are across the southern highlands through the Magic Valley and into the central mountains. Although isolated storms are possible across east Idaho. Dew points are still relatively comparable to what we've seen the past couple days. So expect a mix of wet and dry storms with gusty outflow winds likely. Underneath one of the thunderstorm cores, a quick 0.10 inches of rain or so is possible. A weak cold front, really more of a dry line, arrives Thursday. Timing is a bit slower than we've seen in previous runs. As a result we could still see some isolated storms Thursday if the dry air doesn't arrive by afternoon. Forecast remains dry for Thursday with uncertainty still high as to whether or not enough moisture is still around for storms. Hot and dry weather arrives for the weekend. Heat risk values continue to favor potential heat alerts over the weekend as highs approach 100 for many of our lower elevation communities. It looks like it may be a bit breezy over the weekend, so this could feel more like a blast furnace. Temps cool slightly by Monday, but still mid to upper 90s for the lower elevations. By Tuesday temps cool into the lower to mid 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 956 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main impacts will be potential thunderstorms impacting all TAF sites EXCEPT DIJ, where it appears any lingering shower/storm potential will be minimal and/or not close enough to the airport. We have included PROB30 for BYI, SUN, PIH, and IDA for gusts over 35kts, with some potential for gusts exceeding 45-50kts. We should see showers and storms clear these TAF sites later this evening. VFR weather is expected although we might see a brief reduction during any storm that ends up producing heavier rainfall. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected once again this afternoon. The best chances for storms is across fire zone 427. Gusty outflow winds are likely near storms. Drier weather is likely for Thursday. Hot, dry and perhaps windy weather is expected over the weekend which could warrant additional red flag warnings. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ427. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...Keyes FIRE WEATHER...13  839 FXUS66 KSEW 081559 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 859 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Onshore flow will lead to mild weather across western Washington this week and into the weekend. Expect a slight chance of showers in the Olympics and northern Cascades. Drier and warmer conditions are forecast early next week as high pressure builds over the western US. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak/dry front is passing through western WA early this morning with increasing onshore flow. This onshore push will bring cooler conditions to the region and keep temperatures closer to average. Expect highs in the lower to mid 70s in the interior with 60s along the coast. Highest winds will be through the strait. Low pressure will remain over B.C./Alberta on Thursday with zonal flow over WA. Ongoing onshore flow will result in morning clouds with afternoon sunbreaks. Temperatures will track close to seasonal averages. On Friday, the low will shift W/SW and offshore and the flow aloft will become more southwesterly. A moisture tap will bring a few high-based showers to the Olympics and northern Cascades. The chance for wetting rains is low, though. The chance for thunderstorms is low too (less than 10 percent). 33 && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will linger offshore through the weekend, keeping western WA slightly cooler and mild. There's a slight chance of showers again in the Olympics and northern Cascades although total rainfall is low. The low ejects northeastward and heights build early next week as strong high pressure forms over the western/central CONUS. Warmer temperatures are expected with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s in the interior on Monday and Tuesday. The coast will remain cooler and in the 60s due to NW winds. 33 && .AVIATION... This morning holds more MVFR/IFR ceilings as stratus is present across most of the area. Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR behind a front between 18Z-21Z. Winds will turn northerly this afternoon. There is a 60-80% probability for at least MVFR ceilings to return to the coast starting at 08Z Thursday, and a 15-25% probability inland near Seattle. West to southwest winds will turn more north in the late afternoon/ early evening today. KSEA...MVFR ceilings will continue through this morning while gradually improving to VFR. Smoke aloft is possible due to regional wildfires. Convergence behind the front look to keep ceilings in the picture through much of the day. Southwesterly winds turn northerly this afternoon and remain near 4 to 8 knots, easing again overnight. && .MARINE... Onshore flow will prevail through the remainder of the week and weekend. Highest wind/waves will be found through the Strait of Juan de Fuca during the afternoon and evening hours. Gales or Small Craft Advisory westerly winds are expected through the strait each day. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... Onshore flow will lead to near average temperatures and higher humidities, thus keeping the overall fire weather danger low. Dry and warmer conditions are forecast early next week although minimum humidities will not reach critical thresholds. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$