862 FXUS62 KJAX 081618 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated To Widely Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms Today, - Decreasing Chances Through the Week. Wednesday: Peak Heat Index 105-111 Most Areas. Major Heat Risk through the rest of the Week - Moderate Rip Current Risk Beaches Today && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Heat Advisory most areas today - Lower convective chances today No major changes to the ongoing forecast as mid level ridge remains south of the local area with a hot and humid west to southwest steering flow across the region. PWATs still remain in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range, so will still support widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon/evening, with a few strong storms still possible with gusty winds to 40-50 mph. The W-SW flow will keep the East Coast sea breeze pinned along the I-95 corridor this afternoon and will support the current Heat Advisory in place as Max temps still reach into the mid/upper 90s with peak Heat Indices in the 105- 110F range area-wide, and even some 110-115F readings into Coastal SE GA counties. Any lingering isolated storms this evening should fade after sunset with all activity ending by midnight or at least pushed into the Atlantic Coastal waters. Above normal temps continue overnight with lows in the mid/upper 70s inland and near 80F along the St. Johns River/Atlantic Coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential for Thursday and Friday Afternoons - Lower convective chances Upper air ridging strengthens, limiting convection for the end of the work week. Precipitation chances Thursday remain isolated over north central Florida and the northeast FL coast south of St. Augustine in the afternoon and evening where some moisture lingers, with northeast Florida and southeast Georgia likely remaining dry on Friday. With mostly sunny skies and very limited showers and storms, dangerous heat will be the main concern both days. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast as southwesterly winds continue. Afternoon heat indices will approach 102-110 degrees both days, Heat Advisories may be necessary for portions of northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential Saturday Afternoon - Convective chances increase Sunday Onward Convection will gradually increase daily Saturday onward, with coverage Saturday mainly isolated to scattered as both sea breezes push inland. Sunday, stronger southwest flow will bring higher convective chances closer to the I-95 corridor to the coast where the Gulf sea breeze meets the pinned Atlantic sea breeze later in the afternoon. Afternoon max heat index values remain dangerously high Saturday, approaching Heat Advisory conditions. By Sunday, temperatures drop a few degrees area-wide as more storms are expected. Monday and Tuesday, precipitation chances increase to near 60-70% as a front approaches from the north. Higher cloud cover and storm chances will lower temperatures back to near normal in the lower to mid 90s to start off the new week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... More limited convective coverage is expected this afternoon and evening as upper ridging establishes over Florida. Still anticipate a 20-30 percent chance of showers and a storm, but low confidence on any specific timing so will keep just mentionof VCSH/VCTS through sunset this evening. VFR conds expected again tonight following any isolated evening convection, except for the usual patchy MVFR fog at VQQ from 07-11Z. SW flow develops again Thursday morning with SCT clouds developing between 2000-3000 ft by 14Z once again, but any potential MVFR CIGS will be brief, so no TEMPO groups included at this time. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a southwest flow through early afternoon followed by late afternoon and evening wind surges from the south to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters each day through the week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents continues through the end of the week due to fairly low surf conditions from prevailing offshore flow. Some enhanced potential still looks likely for the northern beaches by late afternoon from Mayport northward due to stronger southeast wind component each day. Surf remains generally in the 1-2 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 FROM - Wednesday Through Saturday High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through Monday, with drier than normal conditions forecast through Saturday. This will lead to above average temperatures and dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values through Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Sunday, with patchy to areas of high afternoon dispersion north of I-10 expected each day. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above critical values. Precipitation chances increase early next week as a front approaches from the north. Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows. && .CLIMATE... Summer heat is certainly here. There is potential for some locations to get to the century mark today with probability of this occurrence at about 20-30 percent. These probabilities look a bit higher for Thursday and Friday. For the next few days, here are the record high temperatures that are within 3 degrees of the current forecast: July 8th: KJAX: 100/1879 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 100/2016 July 9th: KJAX: 101/1879 KGNV: 99/1932 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 101/2016 July 10th: KJAX: 102/1879 KGNV: 99/1914 KAMG: 99/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 July 11th: KGNV: 100/1900 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/1998 July 12th: KGNV: 99/1902 KCRG: 99/1981 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 76 97 77 97 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 80 96 80 97 / 20 10 0 10 JAX 76 98 77 99 / 20 10 0 10 SGJ 77 97 78 96 / 20 10 0 10 GNV 74 97 75 97 / 10 0 0 10 OCF 75 97 76 97 / 10 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232- 233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$  031 FXUS63 KLMK 081625 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Forecast Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds this afternoon and evening. * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Lifted a longer duration Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA in coordination with surrounding offices. The headline will start tomorrow afternoon and run through late Saturday evening. May have to adjust it some once each successive wave of rain become more clear, but for now it appears the entire area has a threat of flooding during this stretch. Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected from as early as Thursday afternoon until late Saturday evening. Several inches of rain are possible during this stretch, especially for areas that see repeated rounds. Several factors will contribute toward intense and efficient rainfall rates including moderate instability, high freezing levels, some training potential, and slow storm movement at times. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today, an upper low, embedded in a weak upper trough, is expected to get picked up by zonal flow. Stronger upper flow remains well north of the region which is causing the Lower Ohio Valley to lack meaningful wind energy, but we continue to have plenty of moisture with precipitable water values between 1.8-2" covering most of our CWA. Our top row of Indiana counties is in an area with slightly less moisture with PWATs between 1.6-1.8". This afternoon, diurnal warming will once again increase MLCAPE instability to between 1,300 to 1,800 J/kg which might be slightly less than what we saw yesterday, but we can expected scattered slow moving showers and thunderstorms to pose an isolated flooding threat for any area that gets stuck under a heavy downpour. Highs are expected to reach into the 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Tonight, we start to see the pattern change as what was the upper low begins to move east out of the area. This will begin the movement of the higher PWATs eastward. The high PWATs won't make it out of the area before Thursday morning, but any remaining showers and thunderstorms will begin dissipating as we lose diurnal heating. Patchy fog will once again be possible as temperatures fall. Lows are expected to drop to either side of 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday, as the remnants of the former upper low gets carried off to the east, PWATs try to drop below 1.5". The day might not be completely dry, but any diurnally driven chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely be more isolated than they have been. As a surface low begins approaching the Lower Ohio Valley from the west, an increasing pressure gradient and added WAA will help drive slightly warmer temperatures, closer to 90 along and west of Interstate 65. Thursday evening into the early night, there is a chance that a system will continue moving east from the Plains and make it's way into the Lower Ohio Valley. Even though shear over the region is low, higher instability values could help an already developedsystem to sustain itself. This could bring a threat of strong to severe winds before weakening as the system moves off to the east later in the night. Friday into the weekend, a messy west to east oriented boundary is expected to set up and drop south through the Ohio Valley. This is expected to bring a return of PWAT values over 2". There could be some marginal instability at times, but overall the severe threat looks fairly low at this point. The main concern is expected to be flooding. Unlike the earlier activity Thursday evening which is expected to be quick moving, some of the later activity along the boundary Friday and Saturday could possibly be slower moving and see multiple rounds of heavy showers causing increased chances for flash flooding. If we get breaks in rounds of rain, the region will see less issues than if areas don't get a break from continuous showers. Early next week, precipitation chances look to finally drop as moisture gets pushed south of the CWA. High pressure behind the front is expected to bring clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures in the low 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 726 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current satellite shows areas of fog and low stratus across portions of KY and southern Indiana, affecting LEX, RGA, and HNB and within close proximity to BWG. Fog and low stratus will burn off quickly after sunrise, so expect VFR conditions to prevail after 13Z. Latest surface analysis shows a stationary boundary draped across KY, which combined with diurnal heating and abundant moisture will likely result in another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Expect torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning in and around any stronger cells. Winds will be light, outside of storms, predominately from the S to SW. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081- 082. IN...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ UPDATE...BJS SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...CG  331 FXUS63 KJKL 081632 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1232 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - There is a high chance of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is expected at times through the first half of this weekend, with a threat of isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. - A Flood Watch has been issued for flash flood potential across the area, and is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Saturday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A Flood Watch has been issued from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for the growing potential for more widespread instances of flash flooding. Before then, from this afternoon through Thursday morning, isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible with any localized excessive rainfall from slow- moving and/or training showers and thunderstorms. Hourly PoPs were generally expanded and increased from the prior forecast for the remainder of today and tonight, with little other needed changes to the grids at this time in the near term. UPDATE Issued at 930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire, with satellite imagery showing fog and low stratus burning off fairly rapidly. Primary update was to trend higher with Sky cover, utilizing more of a blend of models. Otherwise, updates to hourly T/Td grids were made in the near term, with the latest observations used to initialize the NDFD database. UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Almost a repeat of yesterday morning with a need for a Dense Fog Advisory, though it seems to be lifting to a stratus so may not be as much of a concern for valleys now. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These tweaks have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 445 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 08Z sfc analysis still shows a weak and ill defined pressure pattern over eastern Kentucky. This is allowing the diurnal cycle to be the main driver of the weather. At night, the convection dies off along with much of the clouds allowing very limited radiation cooling and the development of fog - becoming dense in the valleys. Again due to high humidity there is minimal terrain differences showing up in the temperatures. Specifically, readings are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s with similar dewpoints, amid light to calm winds. An SPS is again in effect for areas of dense fog early this morning across the entirety of the JKL CWA. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast even as they indicate more amplification to end the work week. Initially, they all depict a positively tilted 5h trough in place over the Tennessee Valley through western Kentucky. This trough will fill and dampen through Thursday as it slowly drifts east with very small height falls for the area. Late in the period the westerlies at mid-level running through the northern Ohio Valley start to speed up and settle south toward Kentucky. This essentially sets the stage for additional short waves - some probably convectively induced from upstream - to impact the area into the start of the weekend. Given the good enough agreement among the models through 00Z Friday, the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids with some adjustment applied for very minor terrain details in temperatures tonight. As for PoPs, consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage were included from the latest CAM runs. These were again smoothed and fitted to a reasonable diurnal trend - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics possibly extending the convection later into the nights than the past couple of them. Sensible weather features typical summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be warm and humid with mainly afternoon and evening convection. Overlaid on this fairly predictable pattern will be the potential for outside influence in the form of waves at mid level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly on Thursday and beyond. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - becoming cumulative by week's end with isolated flood concerns peaking. In addition to the excessive rain, we will also need to be on the look out for organized convection from those strengthening and nearing westerlies bringing perturbances closer to the area such that damaging wind gusts could be possible from any more organized storms Thursday afternoon and evening - especially over our western zones. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Thursday evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday. The previous long term discussion follows: Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast. Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday, as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the Intermountain West. For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall, and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday. Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday, with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The fog and low stratus are affecting the majority of the TAF sites at the 12Z issuance with VLIFR conditions reported. This is expected to possibly convert to or merge with a low cloud deck before clearing out. VFR conditions then return until more showers/ thunderstorms develop after daytime heating builds. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions likely lingering later into the evening than the past couple of nights. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...GREIF  468 FXUS66 KLOX 081636 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 936 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...07/1125 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge over the region. Some relief from the heat is likely this weekend as the ridge breaks down and opens the door for possible monsoon showers or thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...08/935 AM. ***UPDATE*** Sunny skies and hot weather on tap today, with the Heat Advisories still in place for areas away of the coast. Another round of Sundowner winds are expected tonight across Southwest Santa Barbara County, with gusts up to 55 mph possible. Thus, a Wind Advisory will be issued by the afternoon for that area. Otherwise the short-term forecast is on track, and no changes were needed for the morning update in short-term forecast. ***From Previous Discussion*** An upper high will be centered over Srn CA today through Friday. Hgts will range from 594 to 596 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal. There will be onshore flow to the east strongest in the afternoon, but a few mb weaker than it was earlier this week. There will be a mb or two of offshore flow from the north in the mornings turning weakly onshore to the north in the afternoons. The marine layer has been smooshed down to about 800 ft by the hier than pressure aloft. The lack of an eddy means that there will only be minimal (if any) low clouds south of Pt Conception. The normal amount of onshore flow across the Central Coast will bring that area consistent night through morning low clouds today through Friday. Max temps will be the main concern through the short term. The hier than normal hgts, lack of a solid marine layer and only weak to moderate onshore flow in the afternoon will all add up to warmer than normal conditions. Look for 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming today under the subsidence from the upper high. This will bring vly highs of 92 to 103 degrees. Most max temps south of Pt Conception will be 4 to 8 degrees over normal. The Central Coast will only have near normal temps as the cooling sea breeze will greatly modify their temps. Most areas south of Pt Conception will see little change in temps on Thursday, but a weaker sea breeze will allow for 3 to 5 degrees of warming across the Central Coast. A 2 to 3 mb uptick in onshore flow on Friday will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys on Friday, but max temps will remain a few degrees over normals. A heat advisory is in effect for the LA vlys and interior cstl sections as well as all of the mtns and far interior vlys (please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all details). Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening and Thursday evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...08/226 AM. The upper high that will sit atop of Srn CA for the next three days will shift to the NE late Friday through Sunday. It will eventually reach the Dakotas. This movement will set up SE flow into Srn CA. At the sfc mdt to stg onshore flow will continue both to the N and E. The SE flow will bring in monsoon moisture and there will be partly to mostly cloudy skies through the period as plenty of mid and high level clouds stream into and over the area. The moisture will not be low enough to create a convective threat on Saturday. For Sunday to Tuesday, however, the monsoon moisture will lower enough to bring a 10-20 percent chc of showers/isolated TSTMs to portions of LA and (less of a chc) VTA counties. The best chc of showers will be over eastern LA county and esp the eastern San Gabriels. At the low levels, due to the increased onshore flow, night through morninglow clouds and fog will affect most of csts and some portions of the lower vlys. Look for 3 to 6 degrees of cooling on Saturday which will bring mid 70s to lower 80s to the csts (lower 70s at the beaches) and mid 80s to mid 90s in the vlys. These max temps are close to seasonal normals. There will be little day to day chg in temps Sun and Mon. Tuesday may warm a few degrees as the clouds thin out and the onshore flow relaxes a bit. && .AVIATION...08/0959Z. At 0538Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1400 ft deep with a temperature of 27 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 25 percent chc for LIFR conds through 16Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z. Low confidence in TAFs for KSMO and KLAX (40 percent chc of IFR cigs 12Z-17Z) and KLGB (40 percent chc of no cigs) KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of OVC008 conds 12Z-17Z). Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...08/239 AM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Thursday across the Outer Waters. There is a 50-70% chance of Gale Force winds this afternoon and evening and again Thursday. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid- week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend. SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel greatest during the afternoon and evening hours through at least Thursday. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoons/evenings through Thursday. For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through tonight. Otherwise, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/KL AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...RM/Lund/CC/SF SYNOPSIS...RM weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  667 FXUS64 KOHX 081643 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and weekend. Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible through the end of the week, mainly west of the Plateau. - Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with stronger, slower-moving storms. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 As a low pressure system swirls near the bootheel of MO on satellite, showers and thunderstorms are beginning to kick off in Middle Tennessee. We're expecting coverage to increase as the low pushes east this afternoon and evening. While some of these thunderstorms will be loud, produce heavy downpours, and maybe include some gusty winds, we're not expecting any severe storms today. Shear is extremely low, meaning the storms won't be able to really sustain themselves long enough to become severe despite a fair amount of instability. Highs will get into the mid to upper 80s, with heat indices in the 90s this afternoon. Thursday will be similar for the area, with warmer highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. WAA will continue for the area through Saturday aloft, but the temperatures will have to contend with the precipitation. Despite this, we will still have heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s both Thursday and Friday. While the outlooked area remains north of the KY/TN state line, we're still looking at scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as the morning hours on Thursday. Greatest chances for thunderstorms seems to be east of I-65 currently, but other locations could see them as well. Again, we are not expecting severe storms at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Into the weekend, as various rain chances careen through Middle Tennessee, our chances for flooding will also increase as high PWATs continue to be a threat. Given the already saturated soils, and the risk for another 3 to 4 inches through Sunday, a Flood watch has been issued for Thursday through Sunday. We could also see some isolated severe storms Friday into Saturday, as we are in a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) outlook for severe weather from SPC. Marginal is the best word to describe our risk, as shear remains in the barely double digits which is far below what is necessary for sustained storms but CAPE is high across the region. Similar setups to what's going on in the short term, with the addition of some remnant outflow boundaries from previous storms. Hazards right now look to be mainly gusty winds and heavy rain, with no tornado risk expected at this time. Into next week, things look warmer, yet drier. I don't mean fewer rain chances, I mean less humidity. Walking outdoors will no longer feel like walking through a swimming pool, with heat indices forecasted to be close to air temperature through mid-week next week. Unfortunately, it does appear as rain chances will continue as NW flow will set up over Middle Tennessee as we find ourselves east of a strengthening ridge for the beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 IFR/LIFR patchy fog mainly outside of the Nashville area will improve over the next few hour with VFR conditions returning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again after 17z and will continue through 02z. MVFR/IFR conditions in any showers or thunderstorms. Light winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 71 90 74 / 80 30 30 70 Clarksville 87 70 91 74 / 80 30 30 70 Crossville 82 65 82 67 / 70 30 60 70 Columbia 88 69 90 72 / 70 30 40 50 Cookeville 84 67 84 70 / 80 40 60 70 Jamestown 83 66 83 68 / 70 40 60 70 Lawrenceburg 86 68 87 71 / 60 30 50 50 Murfreesboro 88 70 90 72 / 80 40 40 60 Waverly 87 69 90 73 / 50 30 30 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Mueller  965 FXUS63 KGLD 081649 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1049 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm and shower chances continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few showers and storms continue to slowly push east through the area within a small MCS. Given recent trends, the precipitation should continue to weaken and end by about 3-4 am. The rest of the early morning hours is then forecast to see mostly cloudy skies with temperatures lowering into the 60s. During the daytime hours, zonal flow is forecast over the area, leading to similar temperatures in the 90s. Winds are forecast to be a bit lighter as the center of the surface low drifts through the area. Speeds are forecast to be around 5 to 15 mph with winds varying in direction. Mostly sunny skies are forecast with the cloud cover early in the morning forecast to dissipate and push east. Late in the afternoon around 4-6pm, another round of storms that is forecast to develop along the higher terrain just west of the area is expected to push into Eastern Colorado. The majority of solutions have the surface low remaining in the area and have a semi solid line develop and move through the entire area from west to east as an upper shortwave pushes through the Plains. However, there still remains the NAM 3km and some ECMWF Ensemble members that suggest the low will sag further south and help drag the forcing a bit further south. In this scenario, storms would likely move south/southeast and be more confined to along and south of I-70. Currently, the split looks to be about 75/25, so the current forecast reflects the whole area seeing storms. The storms are forecast to be severe at times, mainly with wind gusts of 60-75 mph with either lines or clusters of storms. This would pose a concern for blowing dust, with a wall of dust possible if a clean severe outflow can develop. The cluster and linear storm modes should keep hail a bit on the smaller side around 0.5-1.25". The MUCAPE of 500-2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear of 30-40 kts also supports marginally severe hail. There could maybe be an instance of 2 inch hail if a cell can persist within the clusters or form ahead of the main lines and stay organized. The tornado threat looks to be on the low side with LCLs generally above 1000 meters, low level shear around 5 kts and 0-3km shear around 15 kts. Best chance would be with any truly linear segment orientated north to south. The flooding threat continues to also remain low with storms forecast to progress fairly steadily. Flooding could develop if multiple clusters produce outflows that help storms train or stall over an area. Most of the storm activity looks to again end around 3am for the area. Cloud cover should linger, especially for eastern portions of the area. This could lead to temperatures staying in the 70s for those under cloud cover. Otherwise, temperatures should drop into the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 144 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ***Thursday/Friday*** Upper-level flow looks to be approximately zonal Thursday and Friday. A shortwave trough making its way across the Rocky Mountains would support a surface low in Colorado during the afternoon and evening Thursday. Southeasterly winds may be allowed to develop ahead of the surface low during the afternoon and evening hours, allowing high temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thunderstorms are possible across a convergence zone centered approximately in Eastern Colorado. LREF and NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance both suggest at least a 60% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Thursday across this zone. Surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg seem likely as well according to LREF guidance. The severe potential with these storms will depend on whether stronger winds develop in the mid and upper levels. GFS and EC guidance appears consistent that upper-level winds may only support marginal severe thunderstorms, with most soundings showing 35 kts or less of 0-6 km shear. However, if 75th percentile or better 0-500 mb shear can be experienced (35 kts or greater), some of these storms may be allowed to produce severe hail and wind. Confidence in severe thunderstorms developing Thursday is around 5-10% at this time. The shortwave trough may stick around into Friday. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Thunderstorms are possible again, though appear to be less likely than Thursday. NBM guidance shows the best chances for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation on Friday across portions of West- Central Kansas, but is still only 45% or less. Similar CAPE values to Thursday are in play across this zone, though vertical wind shear may be even weaker. Confidence in severe weather occurring Friday is 5% or less. ***Saturday-Tuesday*** Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the remainder of the forecast will be dominated by broad upper-level ridging overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s. Drying across the forecast area may help prevent heat index values from rising to the level of a Heat Advisory as well. Precipitation appears unlikely Saturday through Tuesday, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows probabilities around 10% or less across the forecast region to see greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1043 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KMCK and KGLD through the period. Winds are forecast to be fairly light this afternoon, favoring an east-northeasterly direction. Storms look to move through the region this evening into the overnight hours. Expect strong gusts with the leading edge of the storms from the northwest, potentially with blowing dust too. Behind the storms, winds will favor a northwesterly direction, before favoring a northeasterly direction later in the morning Thursday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...CA  077 FXUS63 KGRB 081653 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1153 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms along with heavy rain possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across central and east-central Wisconsin. Damaging winds and localized flooding will be the main threats, but small hail and an isolated tornado are also possible. - Continue to monitor the potential for excessive heat early next week as high temperatures rise into the low to middle 90s on Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A complex of thunderstorms across Minnesota was working into northwest WI early this morning. There have been a few warnings with this complex so far. This complex is expected to move into north-central WI between 09z-12z and across far northeast WI after 12z. Several models continue to show convection developing south of the current cluster of storms towards 12z that could impact locations south of Highway 29. Previous forecast had pops, thus not much change in this area. Later this morning into the afternoon, several solutions to contend with that leave some questions in how widespread severe weather will be. This was seen in the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Outlook that has shifted the Slight Risk (Level 2) is little further south. The latest HRRR would support the morning convection south of Highway 29 with another complex developing along and south of the Highway 29 corridor later this afternoon, between 2 pm and 4 pm west of the Fox Valley, and from 4 pm to 7 pm for Green Bay and the Fox Valley east to the lakeshore. Bufkit soundings indicated 1,000 to 2,000 J/KG of CAPE and 0-6 km shear values around 30 knots to support severe storms. Strong/damaging winds and heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding are the main risk. Small hail and an isolated tornado are also possible. Showers and scattered storms will continue tonight, ending across the north late. Showers and a few storms will continue across east-central WI through the night into Thursday. The chances of showers and storms continue into Thursday afternoon across central and east-central WI, although severe weather is not expected. Dry conditions expected this weekend into early next week. 500mb ridge building across the central United States early next week will bring well above normal temperatures along the potential for excessive heat and heat related impacts as high temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to middle 90s. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Late this morning, a cold front stretches from west-central Wisconsin to north-central Wisconsin. MVFR to IFR ceilings exist along and north of the front while VFR conditions prevail to the south and south of RHI. This front will provide the focus for clusters of showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm redevelopment is expected 19-20Z with impacts into RHI/AUW/CWA starting during this timeframe. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and proceed into the Fox Valley in the 22-23Z period. Strong storms are likely with gusts in excess of 40 mph possible with ceilings and visibilities falling to MVFR and IFR/LIFR respectively. After the initial push of storms, scattered showers with embedded thunder looking to continue through much of the evening, while light showers could persist across parts of central and east- central WI into Thu morning. Late tonight, there is a decent signal for ground fog to develop. Central and north-central WI have potential for sub-IFR visibilities. The fog should lift into a MVFR stratus deck after about 15Z. Winds will belight over the period. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Eckberg AVIATION.......MPC  136 FXUS63 KDDC 081655 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1155 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures today with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. - Severe thunderstorms are possible each evening/night through Friday, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. - Strong upper level ridge will build over the weekend into next week, resulting in little to no precipitation chances and afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Late evening water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal weak ridging is in place atop the Desert Southwest, zonal flow across the northern Rockies/plains, and nebulous flow in between over the central plains. Short range guidance agrees the weak upper ridge will break down/retrograde further through the day Wednesday. Despite the weakening subsidence aloft, 850-mb temperatures are progged to increase by 4-5 degrees C, which will translate to afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Late Wednesday afternoon, the combination of the retrograding ridge and a weak upper level disturbance moving across the northern plains will result in weak height falls/modest strengthening of zonal flow over the central plains. Latest HREF suggests thunderstorms will develop over southeast WY/northeast CO and adjacent areas amidst sufficient moisture/instability and deep-layer shear for updraft organization. With time, upscale growth into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) appears the most likely scenario as this activity moves southeast into northwest KS, potentially impacting our northern zones after sunset and bringing a marginally severe wind gust threat. Daytime Thursday, little to no change in the synoptic pattern is expected as modest zonal flow remains anchored over the central and northern plains. In the wake of the previous night's MCS, convective outflow spread out over southwest KS will be modified by strong solar insolation, eventually resulting in southeast flow becoming re-established. As a result, afternoon highs will range from the low/mid 90s north of US-50 to the upper 90s/near 100 across our southern zones near the KS/OK border. Once again, a weak upper level impulse moving across the central Rockies will engender convective initiation over the higher terrain in eastern CO by mid-afternoon. HREF members exhibit strong agreement suggesting thunderstorms will rapidly congeal into an MCS, move east into western KS around 00Z, and roll across our area through the evening and into the overnight period. Given a favorable CAPE/shear parameter space, this MCS will pose a primarily severe wind gust threat, although severe hail is possible near the KS/CO border within any semi-discrete cells that can persist as convection enters our area. Friday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree thunderstorms are once again possible Friday evening/night as yet another weak upper level wave ejects onto the central plains. Beyond Friday however, ensembles agree a strong, cut-off high will expand northward through the High Plains, with the core of this ridge reaching north of southwest KS. While this evolution likely means little to no precipitation chances, the warmest lower-tropospheric temperatures will be drawn north of our CWA, supporting afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through mid- next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Southerly winds will become fairly light later this afternoon as a broad, but weak low pressure expands slowly across southwest Kansas. With the exception of LBL, winds should remain fairly light through this evening ahead of thunderstorms later tonight. Thunderstorms willremain in the TAFs for all airports DDC, GCK, LBL, and HYS (PROB30 group) for a 4-hour period. Given the hot air mass in place, the probability for VFR flight category much of this period is very high, except for a brief time in thunderstorms late tonight. After any storms late tonight, winds may briefly be gusty out of the northeast but eventually become light and variable as a weak synoptic pressure gradient remains in place across much of Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Umscheid