484 FXUS62 KMFL 081702 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 101 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors. - Little to no rainfall today and tomorrow; scattered to numerous storms Friday and Saturday, and some could be strong. - Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A general synoptic picture of the eastern CONUS consists of a shortwave/closed low over the MS/TN Valleys, a shortwave off the Northeast US coast that's embedded in the northern stream, a ridge over Florida, and a TUTT over the far southeastern Bahamas. At the surface, the shortwaves have their respective surface reflections as does the ridge. Satellite imagery depicts the initial wave of the SAL spreading over south Florida this morning. Over the next two days, low-level ridging will provide south Florida with steady SE flow and moisture advection under the hot and dry SAL. This setup will severely limit any shower or thunderstorm development and also allow for the mixing of anomalously warm temperatures to the surface. While some of the dry air may alleviate high dewpoints as it mixes to the surface, this is going to be most likely across the interior. At the coasts and near the Lake, near-surface moisture from the maritime influence should keep dewpoints rather high. Highs are forecast to climb into the mid and upper 90s each afternoon, with heat indices in the 105-110 range (possibly a little higher across SW FL). Heat will be, by far, the main sensible weather concern through the short-term and beyond. A heat advisory is in effect for most of south Florida today and will likely be needed again tomorrow. Take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The MS/TN Valley shortwave will drift east and elongate as it slowly phases in with the northern stream as a shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. At the same time the TUTT over the Bahamas will make gradual westward process and weaken a bit as it does so. Direct forcing for ascent from the TUTT appears as though it will remain south of south Florida. However, daily rounds of convection under the TUTT, that will eventually be responsible for its weakening, will advect NW across south Florida in the form of weak MCVs and moisture anomalies. This weak mid-level forcing and addition of moisture may help overcome the SAL and allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop across south Florida on Friday and Saturday. Just where and when the best rain chances will be remains highly dependent on convective development over the Bahamas and Cuba over the coming days, and is too hard to pinpoint at this time. We could also see a greater potential for severe downbursts in the strongest storms as the low/mid-level SAL increases the potential for evaporative cooling on the storm- scale. Where storms are not expected, it will remain hot and heat advisories may continue through late-week into the weekend. The finer details on just how widespread the heat will be should become more clear as the precipitation forecast gains more confidence. Drought-busting rain is not anticipated as widespread totals are forecast to remain under an inch for the two day period. As the influence from the TUTT move away by the end of the weekend, the SAL becomes re-established across south Florida, with anomalously warm low/mid-level temperatures overspreading the region once again. Expect heat concerns to be more widespread once again, and potentially more severe than earlier in the week. The shower and thunderstorm forecast is tricky as there will likely be convection further north in Florida, associated with forcing from the fractured southern half of the elongated shortwave mentioned above and associated surface trough. While steering flow appears to be mostly westerly, it could be that any robust convection propagates into the warm and unstable south Florida region in the evenings. In general though, rain chances will be lower than typical for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR through the 18Z TAF period. SE winds around 10 kts with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Light and variable winds overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds and seas will increase a bit through the remainder of the week as the western edge of high pressure spreads across the SW Atlantic and SE Gulf. Showers and storms are unlikely both today and tomorrow, but rain chances will increase Friday into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 94 82 93 / 0 0 10 20 West Kendall 78 94 80 93 / 0 0 10 20 Opa-Locka 81 95 82 94 / 0 0 10 20 Homestead 81 93 81 93 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 82 93 83 92 / 0 0 0 20 N Ft Lauderdale 82 92 82 92 / 0 0 0 30 Pembroke Pines 82 96 83 95 / 0 0 0 20 West Palm Beach 80 93 81 92 / 0 0 0 30 Boca Raton 82 92 82 91 / 0 0 0 30 Naples 78 96 79 95 / 20 10 10 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>070-072- 074-075-168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM....Harrigan AVIATION...CMF  542 FXUS63 KUNR 081703 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1103 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Unsettled through Thursday as a series of disturbances move through the region -Sufficient moisture and shear is in place to support a few strong to severe storms -Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Tuesday) Issued at 1103 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impulse filled westerly flow remains in place over the FA. Daily chances for thunderstorms can be expected with strong to severe storms possible at times, through Thursday. Weak impulse will advect through the SW third this afternoon and support TS clusters. Ample LL moisture in place combined with sufficient deep layer shear will support a few strong to severe storms, with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, mainly INVOF of the Black Hills. Given ML CAPE of 1-2 KJ/KG, deep bulk layer shear of 35 to 40 knots expect isolated supercells to be possible, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Storms will carry SE across the SW FA through the evening. More storms are expected Thur as sufficient LL moisture will be in place with weak stability and another impulse. Best chances for storms will be in the afternoon/evening. Similar CAPE/shear parameters will be in place to again support a few strong to severe storms, esp over the SW third. Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend, with dry and hot conds expected. Hot temps around 35C at h85 with close to 6000m H5 heights over WY, will offer record to near record highs well into the 100s with some areas seeing readings around 110 on portions of the Plains, esp Sunday and Monday. However, given how dry the BL will be with dewpoints falling into the 20s in the west to the 50s east, apparent T's will only top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s, highest on the SD Plains, supporting adv level numbers. Ridge begins to retrograde the middle of next week, with storm chances returning as the active northern periphery of the ridge settles back south. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued At 508 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Low cigs (IFR) are currently being observed over some of our South Dakota plains, lurking just to the east of KRAP. Confidence on this deck creeping into the terminal is low...perhaps 40 percent for/60 percent against. Have added SCT012 to the 12z TAF and will monitor satellite and observational trends for any needed amendments. Most guidance supports these low clouds through 15-16z/9-10am over the plains before they rapidly burn off with diurnal heating. Then, attention turns to our next period of thunderstorm potential, generally 19-05z/1pm to 11pm across the region today. Only minor tweaks made to ongoing PROB30s for KGCC and KRAP based on the latest CAMs. Frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds can be expected with any stronger convective cores, along with transient MVFR/IFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected tonight into Thursday morning as skies partially clear and precip concerns end. A glance at RH/dew point guidance suggests the potential for fog or low stratus is perhaps a bit less compared to this morning, but we'll continue to evaluate as that period draws closer in the forecast. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...KSmith  795 FXUS63 KIWX 081709 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 109 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet today with highs in the mid/upper 80s. - Thunderstorms are likely Thursday evening and overnight. Isolated severe storms and heavy rain are possible with the best chances south of US-30. - Low chances for a few storms Friday and Saturday but turning dry and hot again next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another tranquil weather day today as broad mid/upper level ridging and low level theta-e sink remain centered directly over our CWA. Some patchy fog is possible this morning but limited near- surface moisture and some clouds in the SE will keep coverage and density in check. Highs today likely very similar to yesterday though perhaps a degree or two warmer given some subtle WAA and airmass modification under strong July sun. Lows tonight only in the mid/upper 60s due to slowly increasing low level moisture and a slightly warmer afternoon. Main forecast concern is thunderstorm potential Thu evening/ overnight. A weak (convectively modified) midlevel shortwave will approach the area Thu evening. A modest increase in low level SW flow ahead of this wave will bring better moisture into the region but it's worth noting far better theta-e surge remains focused over central and southern IL/IN. Midlevel lapse rates remain paltry and 0-1km MLCAPE values likely struggle to get much above 1000 J/kg. Wind/shear profiles are also light with only around 20 kts of flow at 850mb and 0-6km bulk shear values are 25-30 kts at best. These parameters are marginally supportive of a few strong/severe storms. However, expect coverage of strong storms to remain low given weak mid/upper level support for upward ascent and better moisture convergence focused to our south. The best chances for a few strong storms currently appear to be roughly 22-04Z south of US-30 but that could change over the next 24-36 hours. Will also have to keep an eye on the overnight hours as some solutions send an MCS through central IL/IN late Thu night into Fri morning that could clip our southern zones with some heavy rain. Still think better chances for this will be just south of our area along the main moisture gradient but confidence isn't high and will watch this closely over the next few forecast cycles. The rest of the forecast is mainly quiet. A few SCT storms will be possible again late Friday and perhaps on Sat. Friday's chances will be dependent on exact timing and evolution of potential morning MCS but suspect a return to dry/stable NE flow behind this wave will keep most of the area dry for most of this time. Again, best chances for a stray shower/storm will be south of US-30. No severe weather expected given even more marginal instability and shear profiles. Large/strong (600+ dam) midlevel ridge then expected to develop over the central CONUS early next week and likely nose into our region at some point. Still some disagreement here with GFS keeping the ridge just to our west and allowing a backdoor cold front midweek while ECMWF (and to a lesser extent the Canadian) bulldoze the ridge into our region leaving us hotter and drier. Slight preference for the latter but overall no changes to the concensus initialization at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 107 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few fair weather cu this afternoon and very high cirrus. Mid level clouds will start to increase on Thursday morning in advance of the next weather system. Light southwest winds will also start to increase on Thursday, but will generally remain around 10 kts or less. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078-177- 277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...Cobb  138 FXUS63 KABR 081711 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect Thursday afternoon through evening for north central South Dakota and parts of central South Dakota west of the Missouri River. Hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main threats. - A slight cooldown is expected today and Thursday, with widespread near-normal to just below normal high temperatures (upper 70s to low 80s). A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 See below for an aviation discussion for the 18z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 While the severe threat has ended this morning as of 08Z, concern has shifted to ongoing flooding over parts of northeastern South Dakota. Keeping a close eye out for flood/flash flood potential this morning given the volume of rain that has fallen over the region. As of 08Z, most areas across northeastern South Dakota have seen 2-4" over the past 24 hours, with the heaviest hit areas seeing 4-5". The next chances for rain comes on Thursday, mainly along and west of the Missouri River during the afternoon to evening hours. A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place for north central South Dakota as well as parts of central South Dakota west of the Missouri River. CAPE/Shear combo of 1000-2000 J/kg and 25-35 knots respectively will support hail as a potential threat. Wind will also be a concern, with ample areas of DCAPE over 1000 J/kg present. Overall confidence is fairly low at this point given that these conditions are fairly marginal, but the threat will certainly be there. A broad upper-level ridge begins to build over the western and central CONUS over the weekend, allowing for a significant warmup to occur. By Sunday and Monday, high temperatures may exceed 100 degrees. The latest NBM probabilities sit at 50-80% chances to reach 100 degrees both days. As far as Heat Risk, Major to possibly Extreme Heat Risk will be in place, with the highest levels being on Monday afternoon. This indicates the potential for widespread heat impacts, particularly for those sensitive to heat. Ensemble clusters show a persistent signal for this ridge to sit overhead, so above normal temperatures can most likely be expected through the end of the week. The ridge will also shut down any potential for rain, leading to a dry forecast over the weekend and into at least the start of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to continue for KABR, KATY, an KPIR into the afternoon before the low ceilings from lower clouds will clear out. KMBG will stay in VFR with KABR and KPIR becoming VFR during the early afternoon. KATY on the other hand will have to lower clouds sticking around for longer, which will cause IFR/MVFR ceilings to be around into the evening before clearing to VFR. Northeasterly winds will continue to stick around through the day, with the winds shifting to be from the east southeast during the morning over KPIR and KMBG. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...12 DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...12  173 FXUS64 KOUN 081711 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A few isolated showers and storms may be possible today across southeast/south central Oklahoma. - Storm chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible Thursday evening into early Friday morning. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through next weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 There continues to be a signal for isolated showers and thunderstorms into early this morning, primarily aided by perturbations within the northwest flow aloft. Increasing mid- level heights today will help temperatures this afternoon get into the low 100s across much of the area. Given the upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints, especially across south central Oklahoma, heat indices will range from 100-105 F for most of the forecast area. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, with no severe weather expected. The best chance for storms this afternoon will be across south central and southeastern Oklahoma. Bunker && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Storms will likely develop over the High Plains of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon, and push into the Plains Thursday night. Although the best chances of storms will be farther north, there is still potential for some of these storms to move across northern Oklahoma. These storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts as they move into northern Oklahoma. As storms move into Oklahoma, they are expected to weaken. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than on Thursday, but overall there won't be much relief from the heat. Hottest heat indices during the afternoon will be across southern and south central Oklahoma. More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible Friday evening as storms move in from the high Plains. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aforementioned showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday across much of the area. Temperatures will be cooler over the weekend, however, with increasing surface dewpoints, afternoon heat indices will still be in the 100s. Mid-level ridge will shift to the north across the central and high Plains into next week, helping to keep temperatures near average across the southern Plains. As of right now, the overall synoptic pattern next week will support above average temperatures and below average precipitation. Bunker && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon across central and south central Oklahoma, but chances are too low for mention in the TAFs. Additional showers and storms will be possible across northern Oklahoma later tonight for which prob30s have been included. Any storms that develop today and tonight will be capable of erratic and gusty winds and lightning. Winds will show a typical diurnal pattern with afternoon veering and breeziness. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 101 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 78 101 78 100 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 101 72 99 / 10 10 40 10 Ponca City OK 78 99 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 Durant OK 80 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...14  098 FXUS64 KSHV 081711 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this afternoon hours. - Quiet and dry weather will return Thursday and continue through the end of the week, with areawide highs in the low to middle 90s. - Unsettled weather looks to return Sunday and continue into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A lingering upper-trough extending from the Ohio River Valley southwest into the ArkLaTex, combined with a weak surface boundary across northeast Texas along the I-30 corridor, will provide enough instability to generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across much of the region today. Weak ridging to build across the region on Thursday in the wake of the front shifting north and the upper-trough exiting the region. Under a subsident dome of high pressure, temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 90s on both Thursday and Friday with otherwise dry conditions prevailing. A latitudinally oriented broad upper-level trough and surface front to build south across the region late in the weekend and will linger areawide through the end of the forecast period on Tuesday night. Instability associated with the trough and surface boundary will allow for periods of convection across portions of the ArkLatex each day. Additionally, with increased mixing and cloud-cover, high temperatures will be slightly cooler than what is expected for July, averaging in the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Monday and Tuesday. /05/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Some isolated convection has been developing and dissipating all night near and north of the I-20 Corridor of NE TX into SW AR and we will continue seeing this to start the 12z TAF package as well. Decided to prevail VCTS at the TYR/GGG and TXK terminals as a result, delaying VCTS to mid to late morning at the SHV terminal and not beginning VCTS til early afternoon at our remaining terminals. Should see convection dissipating in the 00z-03z timeframe with VFR conditions prevailing overnight tonight. Winds will be varying from SE to SW with speeds generally under 10kts during this TAF package except variable and more gusty in and around convection. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this morning and afternoon across the region. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 95 77 95 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 76 96 77 96 / 20 10 10 0 DEQ 73 95 76 94 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 76 97 77 97 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 74 95 76 95 / 20 10 0 0 TYR 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 77 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 76 96 76 95 / 10 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...13  242 FXUS66 KPDT 081713 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1013 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooling trend through Thursday. - Dry and locally breezy conditions through the week. - Elevated fire weather concerns through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and infrared satellite imagery shows light returns lingering across eastern Wallowa county under mostly clear skies. This is in response to the upper level trough that approached the area during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday, bringing some strong thunderstorms to areas of Grant and Union counties. The trough axis passed overnight which kept winds breezy across the Kittitas Valley, Columbia Gorge, and the Blue Mountain foothills. Flow aloft has turned more from the west and zonal in the wake of the passing system this morning, leading to slightly cooler temperatures today associated with a weak cold front. High temperatures will reach into the low to mid-90s across the Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain foothills, which is 2-4 degrees above normal. Another dissipating shortwave will bring another weak blast of cooler air on Thursday as high temperatures approach near normal values. The weak, dissipating shortwaves both today and Thursday will allow daily pressure gradients to develop along the Cascades, keeping winds breezy through the afternoon hours across the Columbia Basin. The GFS and NAM advertise a gradient of 8-10mb between Portland and Spokane today, which correlates to sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph out of the west. Peak winds are expected to occur after 5 PM and subside late in the evening. Northwest sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts up to 40 mph are expected in the Kittitas Valley, and will peak earlier around 3 PM and extend through the evening. Advisory-level winds are not expected as the NBM suggests only a 30-35% chance of sustained winds of 30 mph or greater, or gusts of 45 mph or greater over the Kittitas Valley. Advisory level wind chances are much lower in the Columbia Basin, 10% or less. An upper level low will continue dropping along the British Columbia coast through the remainder of the week, stalling just north of Vancouver Island Saturday morning. Weak, shortwaves will spin off this parent low to bring similar afternoon winds through the remainder of the week. The ECMWF AI ensembles and GFS AI ensembles are in good agreement with a strong high pressure center developing across the 4 corners region Saturday as the low stalls off the British Columbia coast. This enhances southwest flow aloft and increasing high temperatures into the mid-90s across the Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain foothills, and Central Oregon through the weekend. The high shifts northeast and into the Plains as the low offshore weakens and lifts northeast into Central British Columbia, northern Alberta, and northern Saskatchewan early next week - effectively riding up and over the central CONUS ridge. Winds across the area will subside on Sunday into Monday, but humidities are expected to dry as the large ridge infiltrates its influence into the area from the southeast. 75 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions persist through all sites. No major CIG or VIS issues expected. Only concern will be breezy winds at DLS, RDM, BDN, and YKM. Breezy winds will persist in DLS, with winds decreasing in PDT by 05Z. RDM and BDN will see winds develop to around 15-25 knot gusts from 0820Z to 0905Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through the week for WA690, WA691, OR691, and OR703, peaking through the afternoon hours associated with the incoming weak shortwaves. Afternoon humidities will also hover in the upper teens to mid-20s each day, with moderate togood overnight recoveries between 40-60%. Thursday is expected to be the most concerning day as minimum humidities of 15-20% and west northwest winds between 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will be possible. Higher winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are likely across the Kittitas Valley Thursday. Very low afternoon humidities dropping near single digit values are also forecast for OR700 and OR696 on Thursday. These concerns on Thursday will be further analyzed, but no fire weather product is anticipated at this time. 75 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 88 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 90 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 93 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 92 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 91 58 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 82 54 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 86 47 87 48 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 88 53 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 90 50 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 85 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...95 FIRE WEATHER...95  318 FXUS64 KJAN 081714 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels of heat returns late this week and persist into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today through next Tuesday...A mid/upper level trough residing about the region will gradually weaken and become absorbed in quasi-zonal flow across the country. This will allow sub-tropical ridging to increase its presence across the Lower Mississippi River Valley late this week and into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure centered to the southeast of the CWA will maintain southerly flow across the region, thus keeping humid conditions across the area. With the presence of the trough nearby today and Thursday, decent chances for diurnally driven convection will remain in the forecast. Convection will linger into the evening hours, before finally dissipating as daytime heating wanes. Gusty winds, locally heavy downpours, and frequent lightning will be possible with the most intense storms. As the aforementioned sub-tropical high builds in Friday into the weekend, rain chances will lessen a bit but still be confined to mainly the afternoon and early evening hours. With highs topping out in the low to middle 90s each afternoon and dew points in the 70s, afternoon heat index values will climb to around 105F in many locations Thursday into the at least Saturday. If this trend continues in future model data, a "Heat Advisory" may be needed for portions of the area late this week and into the weekend. Better rain chances currently look to return to the forecast at the beginning of next week. This is due to a frontal boundary that's progged to sink south into the region. If this scenario indeed verifies, the widespread showers and storms over the area will bring an end to the heat stress across the forecast area for at least a few days. /19/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR flight conditions with southwest winds between 5-8 kts will prevail through the period. Variable winds are expected to shift to the south after 00Z Thursday. /OAJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 92 73 92 74 / 20 10 30 10 Meridian 93 73 93 74 / 30 10 40 10 Vicksburg 92 75 93 76 / 40 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 94 75 94 75 / 20 20 40 10 Natchez 93 75 94 75 / 30 10 20 0 Greenville 92 74 94 77 / 30 10 40 10 Greenwood 92 74 94 76 / 30 20 50 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/19/OAJ  464 FXUS63 KIND 081717 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry today with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, low chance for rain in southern Indiana - Strong to severe storms and flash flooding possible late Thursday into Thursday night - Additional rain Friday through the weekend with pockets of flooding && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 937 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments needed. Current KIND Radar imagery depicts isolated showers and storms south of the forecast area with quiet weather conditions across central Indiana. The isolated convection is associated with a weak mid-upper level disturbance which will crawl northward during the day. This may support isolated showers or storms over far southern counties by the afternoon. Otherwise, expect weak surface high pressure to remain the dominant weather feature promoting quiet weather for most areas. Look for another warm, but near seasonal day in the mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Overview. Dry and pleasant weather is expected for today with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. On Thursday, a strong cold front will move into the region, bringing a risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding Thursday night. This front will then stall over the area, keeping chances for showers and storms in the forecast from Friday through the weekend and into early next week, leading to the potential for flooding with total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches. Today through Thursday. The broader synoptic pattern today features mid-level ridging centered over the Ohio Valley that will gradually suppress southward as a northern stream shortwave trough digs across the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure positioned over the eastern Great Lakes will maintain a dry easterly to southeasterly low-level flow across central Indiana. Forecast soundings exhibit a notable mid-level subsidence inversion along with deep dry air. This dry airmass and large-scale subsidence will inhibit convective development today, keeping the entire forecast area dry with afternoon high temperatures rising into the mid-80s. The synoptic pattern transitions rapidly on Thursday as a northern stream shortwave trough deepens over Ontario, driving a surface cold front south-southwestward toward the area. Ahead of this boundary, a robust low-level jet will advect an anomalously moist, tropical airmass northward. PWAT values are modeled to surge toward 2.00 to 2.25 inches, which sits well above the 90th percentile for early July. HREF and ensemble guidance indicates rapid destabilization Thursday afternoon ahead of the front, with MLCAPE expanding to 1500- 2500 J/kg. Convective initiation is expected along and ahead of the front by late Thursday afternoon and evening. While deep-layer shear remains modest at 25-35 knots, linear forcing along the front will support organized multicell clusters and transient supercell structures. Damaging downburst winds and isolated severe hail represent the primary convective hazards. A flash flooding threat will develop Thursday night. As the surface front slows down and aligns parallel to the mid-level westerly flow, Corfidi vectors indicate a high potential for cell training. Warm-cloud depths exceeding 12,000 feet will optimize warm-rain processes, yielding exceptionally high precipitation efficiency. Localized rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour are anticipated, capable of producing widespread flash flooding and areal flooding across central Indiana overnight. Friday Through Tuesday. From Friday through the weekend, the surface frontal zone is forecast to become quasi-stationary across the Ohio Valley as it encounters a flat sub-tropical ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast states, blocking its southward progression. Within this weak steering regime, successive low-amplitude mid-level shortwaves will track along the frontal zone, interacting with the lingering tropical moisture reservoir where PWATs remain elevated between 1.75 and 2.00 inches. This setup will support daily rounds of convective clusters and multi-cell arrays through Sunday. Medium-range ensemble guidance (GEFS and EPS) exhibits high consensus regarding a prolonged, heavy rainfall footprint across the Ohio Valley due to this stalled boundary. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 60-80% chance of widespread total rainfall exceeding 2.00 inches across central Indiana through Sunday evening. Within corridors experiencing persistent convective training or repeated cell tracking, probabilistic clusters indicate a 30-40% chance of localized totals exceeding 4.00 inches. Given the saturated antecedent conditions expected from Thursday night's convection, this additional rainfall will sustain and exacerbate risks for river flooding and ongoing areal flooding through the weekend. The unsettled pattern will gradually transition into early next week as the main upper-level trough shifts into eastern Canada, allowing northwest flow aloft to develop over the Midwest. While the primary stalled frontal boundary will diffuse or push slightly south of the state, embedded shortwaves within the northwest flow will maintain daily chance-level probabilities (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures throughout the period will remain near or slightly below seasonal normals in the low to mid-80s due to widespread cloud cover and precipitation, though high ambient dewpoints in the lower 70s will maintain elevated humidity levels. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impacts: - Isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out near KBMG this afternoon Discussion: VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A weak mid-upper level low near far southern Indiana could support a stray shower or storm near KBMG this afternoon, but confidence is too low for an explicit mention in the TAF. Winds will generally be light through the period. Winds will also be variable through the afternoon before then becoming predominately southwesterly tonight. Brief patchy fog cannot be ruled out towards daybreak Thursday near the outlying TAF sites, but confidence is low. An approaching system will bring a greater chance for convection at the very end of the TAF period towards Thursday evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Melo AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...White  473 FXUS63 KMQT 081717 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers continue and/or redevelop this afternoon and evening, becoming most widespread over the southern half of the UP. A couple of stronger storms resulting in gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out over the south-central UP. - Temperatures will remain closer to normal through the mid-week, and start to increase by the weekend. Highs around 90 are becoming more likely Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Early afternoon water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show quasi- zonal flow over the upper Great Lakes with a good deal of coincident moisture, sampled by 12Z KMPX RAOB with a 1.71 in PWAT. Upstream vorticity maxima are located over SW Ontario and the western Dakotas. Subtle NE/SW oriented low-level wind shift boundary is located roughly from western Marquette County through central Gogebic County. It is upon this boundary that we will have to watch for convective redevelopment this afternoon. With weak midlevel lapse rates, any instability will have to be generated from diurnal heating, which is a question mark given the extensive cloud cover across the region. There are some breaks in the cloud cover, and SBCAPE around the WI border region could approach 1000 J/kg should these breaks continue. With strong effective bulk shear around 40 kt, some more organized convection cannot be ruled out from mid- afternoon into the evening, especially for Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta Counties, where strong wind gusts would be the main threat. Given the moist atmosphere and tendency for the low-level boundary to be parallel to the cloud- layer winds, some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, exemplified by the 12Z HREF LPMM showing values in excess of 2" in 6 hours (representing possible local max amounts). Upstream vorticity maxima continue to push through tonight, allowing the low-level boundary and deeper moisture to settle south of the area. While showers and a few storms could linger over Menominee County for the first part of the night, high pressure building from the north will result in dry weather elsewhere with patchy fog possible. Synoptic-scale subsidence is favored for Thu/Fri with seasonable temps. This weekend into early next week, anomalous midlevel anticyclone over the Four Corners region will build into the northern Plains by early next week. Impressive 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam are modeled by early next week over the northern Plains, +2 to +3 sigma as we approach the hottest time of the year. 850 mb temps in the low to possibly mid-20s (C) are similarly impressive. The upshot is growing confidence in a period of highs approaching or exceeding 90F Sunday through Tuesday. It does appear that humidity will be less of an additive factor to the apparent temps than the previous heat spell at the end of June/early July, as low-level trajectories will have more of a westerly/downsloping component off the high plains. Given the lack of deep-layer moisture and positioning downstream of the apex of the ridge, convective potential is fairly low until probably Tuesday, when there are indications of a possible backdoor front/ridge rider. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 731 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all sites, though conditions are forecast to deteriorate throughout the period as multiple rounds of -SHRA and up to 40 percent chances of -TSRA at SAW/IWD bring ceilings down to MVFR and IFR today. As chances of rain decrease or end altogether this evening, the remnant near-surface moisture from the preceding rainfall will bring chances of fog formation overnight. IWD and CMX are 40-60% likely to hit MVFR visibility but only around 30% likely of IFR or lower, so MVFR will be the prevailing category for this TAF, but if confidence increases, TEMPO or prevailing IFR or lower could be introduced. At SAW, confidence is higher in lower ceilings and visibility, with over 50% chances of IFR ceilings and nearly 50 percent chances of IFR visibility with 30-50% chances of LIFR, so a PROB30 group of lingering -SHRA will cover the LIFR with IFR prevailing. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure building over the lake in the wake of a weak frontal boundary will maintain light winds through at least Saturday. Rain showers may lead to areas of fog through at least Thursday morning. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out this evening, especially closer to the shoreline, but overall potential is low. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thompson AVIATION...GS MARINE...Thompson  461 FXUS64 KFWD 081716 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms are expected this afternoon mainly east of I-35. Strong winds and heavy rain will be the main threats with any storms. - Hot and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with low storm chances returning across the region by this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Quasi-stationary convection occurred across Hopkins county overnight into this morning in which MRMS has estimated as much as 7 inches of rainfall has fallen prompting QPE to FFG ratios exceeding 200%, translating to a localized region of 6-hour 200 year ARIs. As PWAT ranges from 1.5- 1.7" over the region in addition to a warm cloud depth of extending up to 6 km AGL based off the 12Z Fort Worth sounding, was not surprised to see efficient warm rain processes with these storms. Another hot and humid day is in store for North Central Texas today, as we remain under weak flow aloft with a broad longwave trough located to our south. Similar to the previous few days, we will continue the typical diurnal pattern of shallow low-level moisture mixing out with daytime heating as high temperatures will reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees today. As dewpoints are expected to decrease into the mid to upper 60s, heat index values will range from 100 to 105 degrees which is just below heat index criteria, although individuals should make sure to stay hydrated especially during any outdoor activities. Though coverage will be lower than yesterday, can expect a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the early evening hours with weak flow aloft and and sufficient destabilization with high resolution ensemble guidance showing 1000 J/Kg SBCAPE. Coverage will likely be highest in areas north and east of the DFW Metroplex where the greatest low-level moisture is with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and frequent lightning, but also can't rule out a few sub- severe wind gusts up to 50 mph as forecast soundings 20-25 degree surface dewpoint depressions. Similar to yesterday, most activity should be over by sunset as the boundary layer begins to stabilize. Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with southerly winds ranging from 5-10 mph and gusts peaking around 15-20 mph. As a result, overnight lows are again expected to remain quite balmy, with temperatures only dropping to near 80 degrees for the Metroplex, with mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Thursday, expect drier conditions as 500 mb heights are around the 85th percentile underneath the broad ridge that is encompassing most of the country. High temperatures are expected to approach the 100 degree mark with heat indices remaining below advisory criteria as we continue the diurnal trend of mixing out boundary layer moisture through the afternoon, leaving dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows will again remain muggy under gusty conditions, with temperatures only dropping to around or just below 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The long term period will feature an amplifying mid-level ridge, with 500 mb heights increasing to 594 dam over the 4 Corners region by this weekend. This will result in high temperatures remaining around 5 degrees above average (climatology for DFW on Friday is 95 degrees). Long term ensemble guidance is hinting at a weak surface front pushing to the south from an attendant surface low located over Southern Kansas, which may serve as a focal point for a few showers and thunderstorms across North Central Texas Saturday night into Sunday, however this will depend on how far south the front progresses. Confidence in spatial coverage of rainfall is uncertain at this time, but with PWAT values ranging from the 85th to 90th percentile, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms. In addition to weak flow aloft (around 5 knots at 500 mb), storms will likely be slow-moving which may introduce a flooding threat. Stay tuned for more details as this gets closer... With increasing precipitation chances and therefore cloud cover, can expect highs to cool down slightly to the mid-90s by early next week with rain chances each day as moisture remains trapped underneath the ridge. Weak easterly mid-level flow may allow for a few sea-breeze induced showers and thunderstorms to drift inland, mainly impacting our southern and eastern counties in addition to stronger moisture return into North Central Texas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours, with thunderstorms expected to stay well to the east of the DFW Metroplex terminals this afternoon. Aside from a few high clouds, can anticipate the typical onset of cumulus into the afternoon with cloud bases around 5 kft. Winds today will remain primarily out of the south and are expected to increase to around 10 knots after sunset, with peak gusts of 15-20 knots. Any outflow boundaries from convection to the east of the Metroplex will have the ability to briefly shift the wind direction and produce gusty and erratic winds. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 100 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 77 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 75 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 78 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 78 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 101 81 100 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 76 99 77 98 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 75 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 75 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brauer LONG TERM....Brauer AVIATION...Brauer  442 FXUS64 KLCH 081716 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible along the sea breeze this afternoon. - Shower activity is expected to decrease for Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. - A weakness redevelops over the weekend along with deeper tropical like moisture helping to increase shower and thunderstorm activity. - Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.) && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Convection has dissipated through the past evening, however nocturnal showers may redevelop over the coastal waters and along the coast through early morning. The forecast reasoning hasn't changed much over the past few days. The subtropical ridge remains stretched from the Atlantic into the gulf. This is keeping a light onshore flow locally. Aloft, a weakness stretches along the mid-Mississippi Valley into west LA and east TX. This is between an upper ridge over the SW Atlantic and another ridge centered over the Rockies. The two upper ridge will bridge the gap over east TX and west LA through the second half of the work week. Rain chances will decrease today from the prior two days, however isolated to widely scattered convection is still anticipated this afternoon. Slightly lower chances are expected Thu and Fri. This weekend the ridge over the Rockies will build northeast and into the northern plains by Monday. As the ridge lifts northeast, a weakness aloft will once again develop over the norther gulf coast. Thunderstorm chances will once again increase. Temperatures will remain near climo norms for the date through the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along/south of the I-10 corridor into this evening, possibly expanding further north later this afternoon as well. Like the last few days, if any of these storms pass over the terminals they will be capable of producing heavy downpours that cause reductions in VIS along with frequent lightning. Outside of these storms, VFR conditions and light and variable winds should prevail throughout the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the gulf through the weekend. This will keep a light onshore flow in place. Isolated to widely scattered nocturnal showers and storms will be possible each morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 No fire weather concerns at this time. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected today along the sea breeze, however coverage will decrease Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds in. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05 AVIATION...17  494 FXUS64 KSJT 081717 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1217 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and dry conditions return for today though Friday with afternoon highs near or above the 100 degree mark. - Low to medium (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions today with temperatures around or slightly above normal. Highs will be in the 90s across much of the area and around 100 across the northwest Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Upper level ridging over our area will result in hot and dry conditions through the beginning of the weekend. Highs will be in the mid 90s to near 102 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. A weakness aloft develops on Sunday and Monday as the primary upper ridge shifts northward of the region. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures for the beginning of the week. In addition, models indicate an upper level trough setting up which would lead to increasing chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas this afternoon. A few very isolated showers remain possible but given the very limited coverage, will not include at this time. Otherwise, south winds will continue and will continue to be gusty during daylight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 97 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 95 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 98 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 92 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 95 73 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...07  424 FXUS66 KHNX 081716 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1016 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir and Lake Isabella through 11 PM PDT Thursday, July 9. Beware of unsettled waters. 2. Slow but steady warmup this week, with widespread Moderate Heat Risk by the weekend and isolated areas of Major Heat Risk. 3. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will create elevated fire risk, particularly in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties. 4. Increased chance for Sierra Nevada thunderstorms late this weekend into next week with monsoonal moisture pushing into our region. 5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir and Lake Isabella through 11 PM PDT Thursday, July 9. Sustained winds to 25 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph will create hazardous conditions for small craft and high-profile vehicles. Zonal flow prevails at the moment as a high pressure sits over the Four Corners region, bringing the area dry and warm conditions, with high temperatures a bit above normal. The high pressure will retrograde westward over the next day or two, bringing further increased temperatures. High temperatures in the Valley today will be in the upper 90s, increasing to the upper 90s and low 100s Thursday. Desert highs will be in the low 100s today, increasing to 105 to 115 tomorrow. As the high moves westward, winds will increase in the desert. Maximum wind gusts will be 20-25 mph in the Valley today and 15-20 mph Thursday. In eastern Kern and Tulare Counties, maximum wind gusts will be 35-45 mph today, increasing to 40-55 mph tomorrow. These winds will be hazardous to drivers in the area, particularly those in high-profile vehicles. Relative humidity will also decrease as the high moves westward. Minimum relative humidities will be 20-25% in the Valley today, decreasing to 14-18% tomorrow. In the desert, minimum relative humidities will be 6-10% today, decreasing to 4-8% tomorrow. The distinct combination of above-average temperatures, windy conditions, and dry air will create concerning fire conditions in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties Wednesday through Friday. As we move into the weekend, the high will migrate northeastward. This will alter overall flow to a southeasterly direction, bringing a surge of monsoon moisture to the region. As this happens, lightning chances will increase along the Sierra Crest and into the desert, with a 5-10% probability of lightning Sunday, increasing to 10-30% on Monday and continuing similarly through at least the early part of the week. Despite the surge of moisture, there will also be a dry lightning risk associated with some storms. As the heat continues, be sure to take appropriate precautions and check in on and make arrangements for vulnerable people and animals. Brachycephalic (short-nose) breeds will have particular difficulties with the heat and should be kept indoors. If driving or boating in an area with a Wind Advisory, take appropriate precautions. Water temperatures are still in the upper 60s and low 70s and much colder near water flowing from higher elevations. Exercise cold water safety at all times. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warmer and drier conditions are moving into the area today and tomorrow. Minimum relative humidities will be 20-25% in the Valley today, decreasing to 14-18% tomorrow. In the desert, minimum relative humidities will be 6-10% today, decreasing to 4-8% tomorrow. Meanwhile, gusty winds will prevail in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties (maximum wind gusts will be 35-45 mph today, increasing to 40-55 mph tomorrow). This combination of heat, dry air, and wind will create elevated fire concerns in the aforementioned areas today through Friday. A surge of monsoon moisture will arrive later Sunday. While this will improve humidities slightly, it will create a notable increase in lightning chances, including the possibility of dry lightning. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ300-332. && $$ public...AC aviation....AC weather.gov/hanford  553 FXUS63 KOAX 081719 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-normal temperatures continue through the work week, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. - Periodic chances for storms Wednesday through Friday. Main hazards with any strong to severe storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding. - A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected this weekend into next week. Excessive heat is a concern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet weather is expected tonight, but a gradual increase in middle to upper- level clouds are an indication of changes to come. Overall, light winds and mostly clear skies can be expected overnight as temperatures fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will slide east across the Upper Midwest, pushing a cold front into northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. A few showers or storms may linger as the front pushes into the area, but these should be limited and weakening. Temperatures warm into the lower 90s during the afternoon, helping to erode the capping inversion. Concurrently, a secondary shortwave moves east out of the central Rockies. This feature and the cold front help to initiate storms along the front by mid-afternoon across northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa. Storms gradually sag southeast through the afternoon and evening along the front, approaching the I-80 corridor during the evening, before moving into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning. There is a marginal to slight risk (5-15% chance) of severe storms with this activity. The main hazards will be damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding with any strong to severe storms. Overall, limited wind shear and high cloud bases should help to limit much of the severe risk. Thursday and Friday likely offer the nicest weather of the forecast period. Despite the cold front, clouds keep temperatures warm in the upper 60s and lower 70s heading into Thursday morning. In contrast, cooler temperatures filter in by afternoon with middle 80s for all. Additional showers and storms chances (10-30%) are expected across the southern half of the area from activity spreading east from the Rockies. That said, surface high pressure limits this potential. Friday offers much of the same weather as Thursday, though rain chances are a touch higher (20-40%). By this weekend into next week, a return to hot and humid weather is forecast. Upper-level ridging and increasing heights will effectively keep the area dry through this time period with increasing temperatures throughout. Upper 80s return this weekend, before 90s to near 100 arrive heading through next week. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, heat indices near 100 are probable. This heat will continued to be monitored as any further increases could result in excessive heat concerns. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 KOFK: Expect VFR conditions through much of the period at the terminal. A thunderstorm has developed northeast of Albion and is moving ESE. A few additional showers are beginning to pop up across northern Nebraska. There is a brief period where a thunderstorm may impact be in the vicinity of the terminal at the start of the TAF time. Additional chances for showers and a few storms are expected by 23Z, with the best chance after 02Z. Expect winds to become northerly around 5-10kts this evening. KOMA: VFR conditions are expected for much of the period at the terminal. There are a few light showers/storms that have developed across northern Nebraska. These should stay clear of the terminal. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected by around 03Z. Any storms that develop will have the potential of producing some strong winds and possibly some hail. A few lingering showers/storms will be possible after 06Z; however, confidence in coverage across the area after this time is a little less certain. Southerly winds shift to the east this evening before becoming northerly by 12Z. KLNK: VFR conditions are expected for much of the period at the terminals. Expect southerly winds this afternoon into early evening, transitioning to easterly after 07Z and becoming northerly by 13Z. There is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this evening, mainly after 03Z. The main concerns with any storms will be strong winds and some hail. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...ANW  724 FXUS63 KFGF 081721 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 1 out of 5 risk Thursday overnight for the Devils Lake basin. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms. - Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week. && UPDATE Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The higher end scenario of severe storms and very heavy rainfall overnight did not occur. That is a good thing. Flood watch was cancelled early. A few showers yet around SE ND into WC MN early this morning, otherwise a dry day today with mix of cloud and sun. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...Synopsis... Ensembles are in good agreement with the large scale pattern over the next 7 days, depicting the current zonal flow to transition into a sort of omega block pattern with ridging across the central CONUS. Details less certain of course. ...Severe and Flash Flood Potential... Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough across Montana slowly propagating eastward. As this feature continue to propagate eastward this evening, anticipate a strong 850mb jet to develop with nose of this feature into the southern Red River Valley. Currently, showers are developing along a 700mb boundary across central North Dakota, with additional activity associated with an MCV across the southern RRV and west central Minnesota. This activity will continue eastward, although impacts will be minimal. Later this evening, the 850mb front will shift north as the low level jet increases. Surface instability will remain across South Dakota, but with instability along the elevated front and stronger warm air advection there is a very high chance for elevated thunderstorms along and south of I-94/Hwy10. Severe Potential...Freezing levels are near 15 Kft, but given the elevated nature of the storms potential exists for near severe to severe hail given MUCAPE near 2000 J/Kg and effective shear near 50 knots. Potential also exists for severe wind given the anticipated strong low level bulk shear, even with the storm being elevated. The elevated nature of the storms will limit severe potential, but will not eliminate severe potential. Excessive rainfall/flash flood potential...Anticipate heavy rainfall rates given PWATS near 1.75 inches along with soundings indicating efficient rainfall rate processes (plus high freezing level). Given the west to east position of the elevated front, potential also exists for training storms. CAM guidance indicating mean rainfall 1-2 inches with max rainfall near 5 inches. Given all of this, plus the rain that fell yesterday (1-2 inches) across west central Minnesota, will issue a flood watch for flash flood potential (10p-7a). ...Dangerous Heat... As the ridging builds into the weekend, anticipate max temperatures 95F-100F (maybe a bit warmer) across much of the region Saturday through Monday. Heat risk, wet bulb globe temp, and heat index values all indicate a dangerous heat episode. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR skies this afternoon with a some FEW to SCT cumulus through 00z at 4-6kt. Winds vary a bit across the region but are mostly northeast at 5-10 kts and gusts to 12kts. Winds with nearing high pressure will go light and variable overnight with southerly flow prevailing on the west side of high pressure by Thursday afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...TT  711 FXUS63 KGID 081721 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected this evening into tonight (mainly 7pm to midnight). Wind and hail are the primary threats. - Another round of thunderstorms is expected Thursday evening. A few strong to marginally severe storms remain possible, although coverage looks more spotty. - The main severe threat shifts south of the area for Friday, although a few isolated t-storms remain possible. - Dry and increasingly warm conditions return for the weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently, showers and weak thunderstorms stretch from northwest Kansas up through the Sandhills and are gradually moving eastward. These should continue to weaken early this morning, but a few light showers/sprinkles cannot be ruled out. This may linger through midday as well, although little to no impacts are expected. This afternoon, temperatures climb into the 90s for most of the area as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Isolated storms are expected to develop near this front this evening, with additional storms moving out of western KS/NE. Initially, storms may pose a threat for severe hail, transitioning to a wind threat as storms merge into one or more lines/clusters (probably favoring the southern half of the area). Output from CAMs does not suggest "high-end" winds, but gusts near 60 MPH seem likely on at least a scattered basis. Thursday trends cooler as the cold front moves through. As such, the primary t-storm threat shifts further south and west. Nevertheless, there is still a low chance for a few strong to marginally severe storms as storms arrive from the west later Thursday evening. Thunderstorm chances continue Friday, although coverage should be more spotty, and the main severe threat appears to be to our south near a stalled frontal boundary. Upper level ridging will then promote a mostly dry and warming trend through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Summer Heat... Hot weather with highs in the 90s will persist into Wednesday afternoon. A cold front sinking south Wednesday evening will bring thunderstorms to the area (Wednesday evening/night) and cooler weather for Thursday through Saturday (highs mainly in the 80s). A strong and unusually anomalous upper level ridge (600 decameters at 500 mb) is projected to initially build over the Rocky Mountains this weekend and slide east into the plains early next week. This will result in hot and dry conditions even by July standards. Our projected highs early next week in the lower to mid 90s may be too cool and would not be surprised to see upper 90s and even some 100 degree temperatures if this upper ridge patter fully materializes. Wednesday and Thursday Severe Thunderstorm Threat... We have two remaining decent chances to get moisture before the upper ridge builds in and precipitation is likely to shut off for awhile. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Nebraska counties will be Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Kansas counties will be Thursday night. Unfortunately this rain may come in the form of severe weather for some areas with the main threat being the wind gusts, but also at least a marginal hail threat as well. There are currently two main areas to watch Wednesday afternoon/evening. The first area will be along the cold front with afternoon heating mainly across our northern and northeastern areas where storms may initially develop, will probably be more isolated, but will be slower moving and capable of dumping heavier 1" plusrainfall amounts. There is lower confidence in this initial thunderstorm development. However, there is higher confidence that a more widespread line of thunderstorms will develop west of our forecast area later Wednesday evening associated with the upper level shortwave and then track east across much of our area Wednesday night. This later precipitation will bring mainly a severe wind threat to our area with some of these thunderstorms, rain amounts generally less than 1" but more widespread. The Thursday night rain chances are pretty high in the NBM (50-70%), but storms may end up being further south. Best chances for storms Thursday night will be south of I-80 and even higher across north central Kansas. The severe threat Thursday night should be more marginal than on Wednesday evening. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR conditions may be possible between 12-15z for KGRI with bases expected to remain in VFR conditions thorough the rest of the day/night. The main aviation impact within the 18z TAF would be from a few storms (possibly severe) that will near and potentially pass between the terminals between mainly 0-8z following the passing of a cold front. There is a chance for a stronger to severe storm to near/clip wither one the of TAF sites between mainly 2-5z. Gusty winds and hail may be possible. Surface winds today should soon hand out of the south before meandering over to a northerly direction overnight and a northeasterly direction wednesday morning. Beyond the influence from a evening thunderstorms, wind gusts are not expected to exceed 20kts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Stump  613 FXUS64 KLUB 081719 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Daily thunderstorm chances return Thursday and continue through next week. - Hot temperatures continue through next week with a slight cool down beginning Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 After a quiet and pleasant Tuesday, a similar overnight period is expected. Current surface observations show light to moderate southeasterly winds. These upslope winds are causing higher terrain thunderstorms to develop across northeastern NM. However, these storms are not expected to reach our area. A lee surface trough currently across CO is expected to shift to the east by early Wednesday morning. This will result in shifting the winds to the southwest. Convergence along the southern boundary of the surface trough across the Texas Panhandle could result in isolated rain showers across northern zones of the CWA early in the morning. At the moment, chances for these rain showers are low, however cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, the night will be mild with lows in the upper 60s across the southwestern Texas Panhandle and upper 70s across the southern Rolling Plains. Wednesday will be very similar to today with dry conditions and hot temperatures. Upper ridging that expanded across the region today will prevail through Wednesday. Thickness increases due to the ridge will slightly warm temperatures Wednesday with highs in the upper 90s on the Caprock and triple digits off the Caprock. Early Wednesday morning, the aforementioned surface trough will tighten the pressure gradient giving way to breezy southwesterly winds through the early afternoon. Winds are expected to shift to the south to southeast later in the afternoon after the surface trough deamplifies and a secondary lee surface trough develops across southern CO and northern NM. Subsidence below the ridging will keep conditions dry. Southeasterly upslope flow will result in thunderstorms developing across northern NM. Northwesterly flow from the upper pattern will help scattered thunderstorms track to the southeast. CAMs are indicating these storms will die off before reaching our CWA border, however there is a low chance for these storms to sustain themselves and make their way into our northwestern corner. If this does occur, they are expected to be sub-severe and short-lived. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The main focus of the long term is hot temperatures and daily storm chances. The upper ridging mentioned in the short term discussion will slightly retreat Thursday, however slight thickness increases and southerly surface flow will bring hot temperatures again. Highs in the upper 90s are expected across the Caprock and triple digits off the Caprock. A passing upper embedded shortwave will aide in thunderstorm chances thursday evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeastern NM and shift southeast with the aide of upper northwesterly flow, however models indicate storms will reach the far southern Texas Panhandle during the evening before quickly dying out. The rest of the region is expected to remain dry. A similar set up is expected Friday, however with better surface moisture, we will see higher and more coverage thunderstorm chances. The upper ridging will slightly shift north although still sitting across southwestern CONUS. Another upper embedded shortwave will pass over NM and the Texas Panhandle. This will result in thunderstorms developing to the north and east of the forecast area before expanding into our region. Better coverage is expected Friday with thunderstorm chances across much of the caprock and northern portions off the Caprock. Over the weekend and the beginning of next week, the upper ridging will remain across southwestern CONUS, however is expected to expand northward across the Rockies while a very positively tilted upper trough sits across southeastern CONUS. Northwesterly flow with this regime and multiple passing shortwaves with bring daily thunderstorm chances through at least Tuesday. We will see upper 90s to lower 10s again on Friday and Saturday. The upper pattern change as well as daily precipitation chances will bring a slight cool down next week, however highs still remain in the 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR remains firmly in place and will continue thru the prd. Expecting breezy (10-15G20KT) SW winds at all three terminals through at least 00Z. After 00Z winds will slacken a bit but remain from the southwest. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...28  644 FXUS65 KABQ 081720 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1120 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1106 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms. - A low risk of severe storms exists Thursday and Friday across far northeast NM, mainly in Union County. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 00Z RAOBs over the western U.S. showed the center of a 596dm H5 high between Flagstaff and ABQ while a 60-80kt jet stream enters northern CA and NV. The monsoon moisture plume is draped from southwest to northeast across NM where PWATs are slightly below climo for early July. Surface dewpoints are still only in the 40s in most areas. The moisture plume will rotate clockwise today and become compressed into central and southern NM while the upper level jet approaches the Great Basin. Storms will develop in the high terrain around noon then move erratically south and east into nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset. The stronger cells will be capable of producing small footprints with rainfall amounts >0.50". Showers will linger into late this evening followed by gradually clearing skies overnight. By Thursday, drier westerly flow will filter into northern and western NM as the upper level speed max moves into southern UT. Max temps will approach 100F around Farmington and within parts of the middle RGV. A Heat Advisory may be needed. The majority of storms will focus over the southern high terrain and high plains of eastern NM. Any showers that develop north and west of ABQ will be drier with strong outflows and little to no rainfall. A few cells farther south will still be capable of producing rainfall amounts >0.50" with more erratic steering flow expected. There is a moderate chance for a few storms to develop on the Raton Ridge Thursday afternoon then move southeast across the northeast plains into Thursday night. SPC has a small 'Slight Risk' area given the stronger shear with the approaching jet max. There is a greater chance for a more organized area of storms over eastern CO and western KS Thursday night, which helps force a moist boundary southwest into northeast NM for Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday is expected to be similar to Thursday but with greater coverage of storms across northeast NM and slightly hotter temps in the RGV. The setup appears more favorable for storms to develop along the Raton Ridge then become strong to severe while moving southeast across northeast NM. MOS guidance peaks on Friday with the hottest temps so far this season at ABQ, so confidence on a Heat Advisory is higher. Convection over northeast NM is shown forcing low level moisture even farther west to the central mt chain Friday night. Meanwhile, the H5 high center is beginning to take shape again near the Four Corners into Saturday. Another round of Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the RGV and western NM. Moderate precip chances focus along and east of the central mt chain with slow north to south steering flow. These storms force even greater low level moisture west across the RGV and into western NM Sunday. The upper high will then eject northeast into the northern Great Plains by Sunday and open the door to a rich tap of monsoon moisture over NM thru Wednesday. NBM QPF probs are showing increasing chances for higher daily precip in several areas, particularly southern and western NM. However, there is still uncertainty with the placement and strength of the upper high and trajectory of the deeper moisture. There is potential for a large area of dry air near and above 500mb to advect westward beneath the upper level ridge which would limit storm coverage over NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR prevails areawide, except for where locally MVFR conditions will accompany afternoon thunderstorm activity developing over the high terrain before moving over surrounding lower elevations of mostly central and western NM. Will need to monitor potential for east canyon wind thru KABQ b/w 23Z to 03Z, amds may become necessary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Storms with small footprints of wetting rainfall will occur again today around the high terrain, the nearby highlands of central NM, and more of northeast NM. Storm motion will be slow and erratic to the south and east. Any storms across western NM will be drier in nature with strong outflow winds and little to no rainfall. Even drier westerly flow will spread across northwest NM Thursday and Friday with several hours of single digit humidity and northwest breezes each afternoon. A few hours of near critical fire weather will occur. However, winds are the limiting factor despite ERC values above the 90th percentile. Meanwhile, more storms with wetting rainfall are still possible for northeast NM and the southern high terrain Thursday and Friday. Moisture will surge west to the central mt chain Saturday with increasing coverage of storms with wetting rainfall. Outflow from this activity will force low level moisture farther west toward the AZ border Sunday. Storm chances are trending higher for southern and western NM Sunday thru Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 98 65 98 63 / 0 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 94 49 93 48 / 10 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 92 58 91 59 / 20 10 0 0 Gallup.......................... 91 55 93 58 / 30 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 88 56 89 58 / 50 10 5 0 Grants.......................... 92 57 93 58 / 40 20 10 0 Quemado......................... 89 59 90 61 / 70 50 0 10 Magdalena....................... 90 64 90 66 / 40 20 30 20 Datil........................... 86 60 87 62 / 60 20 20 20 Reserve......................... 94 54 95 55 / 60 50 20 20 Glenwood........................ 98 58 99 59 / 40 20 40 30 Chama........................... 86 49 86 49 / 30 20 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 88 63 88 65 / 40 10 20 5 Pecos........................... 91 57 90 58 / 40 20 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 56 86 56 / 30 20 30 0 Red River....................... 79 48 77 48 / 30 20 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 82 39 82 38 / 50 20 20 5 Taos............................ 90 52 90 52 / 20 10 20 0 Mora............................ 87 54 86 55 / 40 20 40 10 Espanola........................ 97 60 95 61 / 10 10 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 91 63 90 63 / 10 20 30 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 60 94 60 / 10 20 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 69 97 70 / 10 20 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 65 99 66 / 10 20 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 101 65 100 65 / 10 20 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 68 99 68 / 10 20 5 10 Belen........................... 100 64 100 65 / 10 20 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 100 66 100 67 / 10 20 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 100 63 10063 / 10 20 10 20 Corrales........................ 101 66 100 67 / 10 20 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 100 64 100 65 / 10 20 10 20 Placitas........................ 96 67 96 68 / 10 20 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 100 66 99 67 / 10 20 5 10 Socorro......................... 101 70 101 71 / 20 20 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 92 63 92 64 / 10 20 10 10 Tijeras......................... 93 63 93 63 / 10 20 10 10 Edgewood........................ 94 59 94 60 / 20 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 55 95 56 / 30 30 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 90 57 89 58 / 30 30 10 20 Mountainair..................... 93 59 93 61 / 20 40 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 91 62 91 63 / 20 60 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 93 67 94 68 / 10 40 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 86 59 86 63 / 30 30 40 20 Capulin......................... 89 54 86 53 / 40 20 60 20 Raton........................... 93 53 90 54 / 50 20 50 20 Springer........................ 94 55 92 55 / 30 20 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 90 56 89 57 / 40 20 40 20 Clayton......................... 97 63 94 61 / 20 20 40 30 Roy............................. 93 60 90 59 / 40 20 30 20 Conchas......................... 101 66 99 65 / 20 30 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 96 64 95 64 / 30 30 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 100 69 100 68 / 0 20 5 30 Clovis.......................... 97 68 99 68 / 0 5 5 20 Portales........................ 98 69 99 70 / 0 5 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 99 69 99 69 / 0 10 10 10 Roswell......................... 99 70 101 72 / 0 10 5 5 Picacho......................... 95 65 96 66 / 0 20 20 20 Elk............................. 93 62 93 64 / 5 10 50 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...24  739 FXUS61 KBUF 081721 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 121 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal updates made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Slightly above normal average temperature today and Thursday with rising humidity levels 2) Showers and thunderstorm expected Thursday afternoon through Friday, where a few thunderstorms may become severe (Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall Thursday). && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Slightly above normal temperatures today and Thursday with rising humidity levels Surface high pressure centered across the Ohio Valley and through the eastern Great Lakes and into New England this afternoon will settle southeastward through the first half of Thursday. As such, warmer temperatures and higher humidity levels are advecting into the region, supporting highs today and Thursday to topple out in the low to mid 80s, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s. As such, it will feel rather warm and muggy with heat indices approaching the upper 80s across the higher terrain and low 90s in the lower elevations. KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon through Friday, where a few thunderstorms may become severe (Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall Thursday). A mid-level trough and attendant weak cold front will drop southeast into the central Great Lakes Thursday afternoon, advecting weak forcing and a deeper moisture source (PWAT values climbing up towards 1.5 to 1.75 inches) to overspread the region ahead of these features. This will likely support a few showers and thunderstorms to develop out ahead of the features, especially now with the timing of this feature being a few hours earlier in the day and better aligning with diurnal heating effects. The combination of the timing of peak diurnal instability, lake breeze boundaries northeast of the lakes, the weak additional forcing and moisture Thursday afternoon, will support a few storms to become strong to severe where damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the primary threats. All of this being said, there is a Marginal Risk for both Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall for much of northern portions of New York State Thursday. The better chance for widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will be Thursday night through Friday morning as the weak cold front gradually slide southeast across the region. A few showers and scattered storms may linger into Friday afternoon before the front pushes further south of the region. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... For the 18Z TAFS an MVFR/IFR deck of stratus across the Southern Tier continues to fade this early afternoon. In its wake, an increase in modest daytime instability and lake breeze boundary formations will form a few showers and isolated thunder this afternoon, near KJHW and points inland through the Genesee Valley. To the north a northern Erie lake breeze circulation may produce an isolated shower between KBUF and KIAG, though confidence remains low at this time to include within the TAFs. Otherwise a narrow ridge of high pressure tonight will continue to fade as a cold front from the Central Great Lakes approaches. Within the light wind flow tonight Southern Tier valley fog will likely form, especially in any areas that received a shower from the afternoon/evening hours. Will place VCFG within the KJHW TAF with filling valley fog nearing the airfield. The upstream cold front and associated convection will likely hold off until after the end of this TAF cycle, with storms blossoming in the 18Z-00Z timeframe near KBUF/KIAG as well as KART. Outlook... Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely at times. Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Generally light winds (10 knots or less) on the lakes through the rest of the week and into the weekend, supporting conditions to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The best chances for some light to a possible moderate chop at times will be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night ahead of and in the wake of a passing weak cold front. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAJ AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...EAJ  758 FXUS61 KPHI 081722 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 122 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation section for 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Sunshine returns for today with light winds and highs generally in the low to mid 80s. 2) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through at least Friday as a cold front approaches and crosses through the region. 3) Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday for portions of the area before drier conditions return by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Sunshine returns for today with light winds and highs generally in the low to mid 80s. Weak high pressure will gradually build in as we head into the day today and this will bring a return to at least partly sunny skies with highs for most areas in the low to mid 80s. Winds will be light but generally onshore so that will keep it a bit cooler near the coast where highs should be mainly in the upper 70s. It will also be cooler over the Pocono Plateau where highs should be in the upper 70s as well. It will still be a little on the humid side but not nearly as oppressive as some of our recent days so the heat index should only be a few degrees higher than the temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through at least Friday as a cold front approaches and crosses through the region. Isolated showers start to develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning before coverage starts to increase more for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a piece of upper-level energy moves through the region. Winds out of the southwest on Thursday will allow moisture to increase through the day. From these showers and thunderstorms, there is the potential for heavy rain. PWAT values will increase to upwards of 2 inches along with a warm cloud layer process. All of this said, these showers and thunderstorms will have the ability to be efficient rainfall producers bringing the potential for more flash flooding. In fact the Weather Prediction Center now has much of the area in MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday. There is also the signal for a marginal severe weather threat. Increasing instability as temperatures reach the 80s for many along with rising humidity and some supportive lapse rates are forecast. The magnitude of shear values supporting storm organization is still a little more uncertain. The primary concern with any strong to severe thunderstorm is damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the MARGINAL risk for severe storms northward to include most of our County Warning with the exception of the Poconos and portions of central and northern NJ. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms look to develop ahead of the cold front moving southward into the area. Once again, as moisture increases ahead of the front, PWAT values look to increase upwards of 2 inches with these showers and thunderstorms having the potential to produce heavy rain and flash flooding. In terms of any severe weather threat, ML CAPES look to reach at least around 1000 j/kg and shear looks to be a bit stronger than Thursday. So there looks to be at least some threat for severe weather once again with the biggest threat again being damaging winds. Finally worth noting for Friday, temperatures around 90 for many along with higher dew points will result in heat indices peaking in the mid 90s to low 100s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday for portions of the area before drier conditions return by Sunday. Tricky forecast for Saturday as some of our forecast guidance clears the front far enough south to keep the area mainly dry while other guidance moves it through more slowly which would keep showers and storms around. We stayed close to the National Blend of Models (NBM) with this forecast and are forecasting POPs around 20-40 percent from the Philly area southward with lower POPs farther north where it stands a better chance of being dry. Expect highs mainly in the 80s with more comfortable humidity levels compared to Friday. Sunday is shaping up to be free of precipitation with seasonable temperatures, comfortable humidity levels, and a partly to mostly sunny sky. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...VFR. S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence. Tonight...VFR initially. MVFR or lower CIGs in stratus developing by or after 09Z. Light S to nearly calm winds. Moderate confidence. Thursday through Thursday night...Any sub-VFR CIGs become VFR by or after 15Z. SHRA/TSRA develop after 18Z over western terminals and taper off over eastern terminals by 02Z Friday. Sub-VFR conds in the heaviest SHRA/TSRA, and then sub-VFR conds in BR and/or stratus late Thursday night. Moderate confidence overall. Outlook... Friday through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, but scattered showers and storms could result in temporary restrictions to MVFR or even IFR. Sunday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... North-northeast winds around 10-20 knots early this morning shifting to east and then southeast through the day Wednesday and diminishing some as well. Generally expect seas around 3-4 feet. Little change for Wednesday night with southwest winds around 10 knots and seas around 3 feet or so. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...Conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Some showers and thunderstorms are likely over the waters by late Thursday into Thursday night and again for later Friday. Some scattered storms could linger Saturday before fair weather returns Sunday. Rip Currents... For today, northeast winds 10 to 15 mph will veer to east and then southeast in the afternoon diminishing to around 5-10 mph. The onshore flow when combined with moderate easterly swell at 7-8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk of rip currents across northern NJ beaches but LOW further south where winds are a little more relaxed (DE) and/or the shoreline is more parallel to the wind (southern NJ). For Thursday, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomes more southeasterly. This combination gives a MODERATE risk for the northern NJ beaches and DE beaches, but a LOW risk for the southern NJ beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Guzzo AVIATION...DeSilva/MPS MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Guzzo  755 FXUS63 KEAX 081722 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather and Slight (2/4) risk for excessive rainfall mainly west of I-35 tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. - Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather Thursday evening for areas east of the KC metro. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. - Rain chances stick around through Sunday. Highest rainfall totals from today through Sunday are forecast to fall north of I-70 with a widespread 1-3" with localized higher amounts towards NE MO. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today will be one of the last dry days of the week with mostly sunny skies and highs reaching the lower 90s. Clouds to start to build in from NW to SE this evening ahead of our next disturbance. Guidance shows mid-level shortwave moving through the northern Plains late tonight which will generate an MCS. So far, the environment still looks better (lift and shear) over the NE/IA border just to our NW. Though, we do expect the MCS to clip our western counties Thursday morning as the MCS starts to dive south from SE NE. With this MCS, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. SPC has issued a Slight risk (1/5) for severe weather mostly just for Atchison co since the better lift will be closer to the front that'll be draped over NE/IA. A Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather has also been issued for areas mainly west of I-35 and north of the KC metro. WPC issued a Slight risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall over the NW portion of the state and a Marginal risk (1/4) for areas mostly along and west of Highway 65. The slight risk was likely issued because of the 1 hr flash flood guidance over that area as it'd only take 1-2"/hr rain rates to generate flash flooding. The ERO outlook encapsulates the areas that are the most likely to get clipped by the MCS early Thursday morning. The MCS will get most of its moisture from the LLJ overnight into Thursday. Once the LLJ decouples on Thursday morning, the MCS is expected to dissipate. Seems that the MCS gets caught up moving along the shortwave and pushes northeast through the rest of the state as it slowly dissipates. This will be one of those days where the morning convection will heavily influence the evening convection. Guidance has clouds sticking around until early afternoon which is why we've lowered the high temperatures on Thursday for areas mainly north of I-70 by a few degrees to account for the clouds impacting daytime highs. Areas south of the interstate may not be impacted by the morning convection and may stay less cloudy throughout the day. Those areas will also be closer to the warm front that'll be hanging out over AR and will likely experience more WAA. Heat index values will range from 100-104 degrees for those areas. If we can destabilize over NW MO, there could be a few pop-up thunderstorms initiating along the leftover MCS boundary near the KC metro by late afternoon. The question isn't if we can destabilize, it's where we're going to destabilize and where the boundary ends up stalling out for Thursday afternoon convection. Again, if NW MO can conjure up a proper environment, storms will start there. If not, storms may initiate a bit further east of the KC metro near the Highway 65 and I-70 intersection over north-central MO. Wherever these storms decide to initiate, they will signal the start of the next round of severe weather for our area. The MCS appears to get a boost from a surface low or shortwave of some sort on Thursday evening and that's when the system starts to get itself together. SPC has upgraded portions of the area to a Slight risk (2/5) for severe weather. The Slight risk covers a pretty large portion of the state and starts east of the KC metro and goes just south of Chillicothe down to Lebanon, east past St. Louis. We are expecting damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain to be the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. These individual storms will merge into an MCS and push east through the evening/overnight hours. Referring back to the most recent July 4th MCS that moved through the area, there were several counties that lost power with that storm system. With winds possibly close to that speed once again, have multiple ways to receive warnings ahead of any power outages that may occur and be prepared for nighttime severe weather. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The warm front lifts north for the weekend and the latest model guidance has it settling near I-70 for Friday through Sunday. This front, coupled with several vort maxima forecast to eject from the passing wave, will bring us a rainy weekend. Chances for rain are 30-60% for Friday with the highest chance for rain occurring overnight into Saturday. Saturday features a 30-40% chance for rain for most of the day and Sunday has a 15-30% chance for rain with chances decreasing through the day. Due to the placement of the front, highest rainfall totals from today through Sunday are forecast to fall north of I-70 with a widespread 1-3" with localized higher amounts towards NE MO. The rain/clouds moving in this weekend will help to keep temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 80s. With the start of next week expected to be dry, high temperatures are forecast get back into the mid 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The same quiet aviation weather that we have seen over the past few days will continue through the evening. Late tonight into tomorrow morning this will change as showers and storms move in from the west. This could lead to a period of MVFR in the heavier showers/storms. Kept with the PROB30 for now as there is still uncertainty on the exact timing of when this would pass each terminal and how strong they will be. The environment ahead of the storms will be dependent on how strong of a LLJ forms. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Carletta  768 FXUS64 KEWX 081722 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION (18Z TAFS)... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Lowering rain chances Wednesday and Thursday, but increasing again Friday through at least the weekend. - Daytime heat mainly in the 90s continues into next week with heat index values reaching into the 100-105 range for many areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A weak shear axis over TX is connecting two synoptic scale lows, one to the SW over Mexico and the other to the NE over the mid Mississippi valley. These two anchors are pulling opposite each other, but there was still enough shear and pooled moisture to give pretty good coverage of rainfall, especially over areas S of Highway 90. This looks to be a slight over achievement versus what was expected, and this has us looking at a few stray coastal showers or storms in the daytime for Wednesday despite low PoPs by the majority of solutions. We still saw a good bit of heating and temperatures were mostly in line with projections despite the added cloud cover. Therefore, we should still expect a healthy dose of summer heat for today, regardless of whether the skies get cloud-filled or not. Thursday will also reflect the steady hot days with not enough shear aloft to generate significant rain chances. But thanks to the overachieving rain events over the spring and so far this summer, the summer heat has mostly been curbed by weakly dominant subtropical ridging over TX and enough moisture in the soil and vegetation to keep most areas away from those triple digits. The apparent temperature isn't holding back, and there continue to be daily areas getting into the 100s up to 105. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday starts the transition to increasing moisture as a disturbance/inverted trough over the southwestern Gulf lifts northward and brings a good chance for showers and storms back into the picture for the weekend. PWATs will surge into the 2-2.25" range at times this weekend, and some of the models are showing a pretty active area over the eastern half Friday afternoon. Despite the added moisture, the summer heat isn't expected to pull back much, but perhaps the ambient temps might dip a few degrees. Model timing has been inconsistent, leading to some related inconsistency in the model blends. Given that this moisture could be enough to trigger new activity at most if not all hours of the day, we'll mainly favor 30 to 50 type PoPs this weekend, and hopefully get better timing signals as more hi res and rapid refresh model data comes into the picture. Going into the work week the upper ridge strengthens, but is centered well north of TX. Thus we could wind up with multiple days of tropical rain chances or at least some air-mass daytime convection going into the middle of the week. Daytime highs remain on a plateau with most areas seeing low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Persistent south to southeasterly flow is expected through the period. VFR ceilings look like a good bet through this forecast cycle, however, there is an outside shot at a brief hour or two of MVFR ceilings at AUS, SAT, and SSF tomorrow morning. For now, it is not in the TAF as confidence is too low to include. Some wind gusts up and over 20 kts are expected on Thursday as southerly flow starts to ramp up. No other big changes for this forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 98 77 95 / 10 0 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 97 77 95 / 10 0 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 97 76 94 / 0 0 0 30 Burnet Muni Airport 74 96 73 94 / 10 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 98 76 95 / 10 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 74 95 75 93 / 0 0 0 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 76 95 / 10 0 0 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 97 77 95 / 0 10 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 76 93 / 0 0 0 30 Stinson Muni Airport 76 95 77 93 / 0 0 0 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...MMM  779 FXUS65 KBOI 081723 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1123 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across portions of southern Idaho. Storms may produce outflow wind gusts up to 40-60 mph, possibly moving through the Treasure and Magic Valleys. - Gusty winds late this afternoon and evening, with breezy conditions continuing each afternoon through the week. - Hot temperatures continue, hottest Friday and Saturday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 348 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 Moisture will linger over southwest Idaho today under southwesterly flow aloft, bringing another round of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will develop along the higher terrain south of the Snake River in far southern Idaho and lift northeast. Storms are expected to weaken upon reaching the Snake Basin, but a few storms will persist as they enter the Magic Valley and southern Boise Mountains. Lightning and gusty winds 40-60 mph will be the primary hazards from storms, with localized blowing dust possible from outflows. Brief heavy rain is also possible in stronger storms. Thunderstorms should track to the east of the Boise Metro, but outflow gusts to 40 mph from distant storms are possible. Otherwise today, expect similar temperatures to yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 90s in the lower elevations with 80s to lower 90s in mountain valleys. Late this afternoon and evening, northwest wind gusts 20-35 mph will develop in many areas as an upper trough over British Columbia tracks east and sends a weak, dry cold front through our area. Breezy conditions with gusts 15-30 mph will continue into Thursday, strongest across southern Idaho. Breezy and dry conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions. Westerly flow aloft will push moisture and the accompanying thunderstorm threat to our east. High temperatures will cool by 3-5 degrees. On Friday, a strong upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest will begin to build north, bringing hotter temperatures. Lower valleys will reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. For Boise, there is around a 50-60% chance of reaching triple digits for the first time this season. Southwest flow aloft will bring breezy conditions to the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 348 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 The center of a strong upper level ridge will move across the Rocky Mountains and into the Northern Plains this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will remain very hot on Saturday with lower valley highs around 100 degrees. Temperatures should cool a couple degrees for the rest of the period as the ridge axis moves east. However, a slight shift west of the ridge would produce hotter temperatures. Expect locally breezy conditions each afternoon. Ensembles are in excellent agreement that monsoonal moisture will work its way north around the ridge into our area early next week. This will reintroduce the potential for showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain. An increase of clouds and precipitation will also likely aid in the slight cooldown. Ensemble mean precipitable water values climb to 150-200% of normal, or above the 90th percentile. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding especially on recent burn scars could be a concern with deep moisture in place. Additionally, after a period of hot, dry conditions, lightning on dry fuels could be a concern for new fire starts, especially if significant rainfall ends up being more limited. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1123 AM MDT WEDJUL 8 2026 Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in far SW and S-central Idaho, including KJER/KTWF. Storms capable of outflows to 30-50 kt, brief heavy rain, and blowing dust. Localized terrain obstruction from wildfire smoke. High density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds outside of storms: W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts to 25 kt late afternoon and evening, except 25-35 kt near KBKE-KONO. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude this week due to heat. Foothills obscured in smoke at times from nearby fires. Surface winds: NW 8-13 kt with gusts to around 20 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL over KBOI: SW-W 10-15 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-424- 426. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....ST  870 FXUS62 KMLB 081725 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 125 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, please visit heat.gov. - A Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today where peak heat index values are forecast to reach up to 109F. - Building dry air will reduce rain chances through the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today-Thursday... Noticeably lower rain chances are forecast mid week as waves of drier air pass through the mid levels. Isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms today (10-30%) trend mostly dry on Thursday. However, there is low confidence in an isolated shower (~20%) near and north of the Orlando metro Thursday where a thin ribbon of deeper moisture may be present. As rain chances are reduced, the greatest forecast emphasis shifts towards a period of increasing heat as high pressure builds over the region. Above normal temperatures will be greatest across interior areas near and north of I-4 each day ranging the mid to upper 90s today, and more widely spreading the upper 90s by Thursday. Across the southern interior, highs mostly range the mid 90s with low to mid 90s spreading the coast. Peak heat index values are forecast to top out around 105-107F across the north today, but higher peak heat index values up to 109F are forecast across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today. Cannot rule out additional Heat Advisories across portions of east central Florida on Thursday. Warm conditions will persist after sunset and into the evenings with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s through midnight. Overnight lows mostly range the mid to upper 70s. Friday-Tuesday... High pressure continues to control the local weather pattern, keeping a period of above normal temperatures through the weekend. Expect only small variations in afternoon highs each day with the hottest conditions persisting across interior regions near and north of I-4 (upper 90s) through at least Saturday. Elsewhere, mid 90s continue with a few areas of low 90s along portions of the immediate coast. The abnormally hot pattern begins to slowly breakdown early next week as a mid to upper level trough digs into the eastern U.S., and highs are nudged closer to normal values by Tuesday. Heat index values exceeding 108F will continue to be monitored with the potential for Heat Advisories across portions of the area into the back half of the week. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Despite surges of locally higher PWATs, model soundings suggest a layer of drier air continuing through the mid levels. This should generally help to suppress rain chances again on Friday, and NBM PoPs have trended down over the last few forecast packages, now showing only a 20-30% PoP in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. By Saturday a weak mid level disturbance lifts across south Florida, weakening as it approaches portions of central Florida. Currently keeping NBM PoPs (30-60%) Saturday with the highest coverage south, but will note high uncertainty as global ensemble members show high spread. A better chance to see scattered showers and storms could be by early next week as the influence of high pressure begins to break down aloft. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An axis of highpressure over the local Atlantic waters will maintain southerly winds and favorable boating conditions. Light south to southwest winds shift south to southeast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Late afternoon and evening winds may increase to 14-18 kts over the open Atlantic (generally north of the Cape). Seas hold mostly 2-3 ft through late week, occasionally building to 4 ft well offshore north of the Cape. Drier air will keep lower rain chances across the local waters the next few days with isolated to scattered showers and storms returning this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A band of deeper moisture across north central FL is already leading to isolated storm development north of KMCO, near KSFB and KDAB. Should see at least scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly north and inland of KMLB through this afternoon and evening as sea breeze boundaries push inland and collide. Continued VCTS for sites from KMLB northward, but also added TEMPO groups for MVFR TSRA impacts for inland TAF sites eastward toward KDAB and KTIX where best storm potential exists. Storms will diminish in coverage through the evening hours, with dry conditions overnight. Looks even drier into tomorrow, with low shower and storms chances (10-20%) near to north of KMCO in the afternoon/early evening on Thursday. Winds will be somewhat light and variable, becoming E/SE around 10 knots along the coast with the east coast sea breeze. Winds then decrease and become light and variable once again overnight through Thursday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 8 July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 98 (1981) 97 (2022) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 98 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (1969) 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 100 (1908) 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 97 (1998) 96 (2023) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 98 (2024) 96 (2024) 97 (2022) 96 (2020) Fort Pierce 97 (2024) 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 95 77 94 / 30 20 20 10 MCO 78 97 77 97 / 20 10 10 20 MLB 78 93 78 92 / 10 0 0 10 VRB 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 79 96 79 96 / 20 20 20 10 SFB 78 97 77 97 / 20 20 20 20 ORL 78 96 78 96 / 20 10 10 20 FPR 76 93 76 92 / 10 10 0 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-164- 254-259-264. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Weitlich  852 FXUS62 KRAH 081725 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 125 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increased chances for precipitation Saturday and Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 125 PM Wednesday... 1) Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain; both hazards are of less concern on Thursday. 2) Chances for diurnally driven convection each day through the weekend, before drying out early-mid next week. Continued warm Fri and Sat, with near to below normal temperatures Sun and Mon. && .DISCUSSION... As of 125 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain; both hazards are of less concern on Thursday. A stationary front has moved very little over the last six hours and is noticeable on visible satellite, extending from northwest to southeast in the vicinity of VUJ, SOP, and FAY. It is just north of this boundary that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, with the threat coming from damaging wind gusts. While the wind shear is negligible, the continued hot and humid conditions have allowed for MLCAPE values between 2000 and 3000 J/kg and DCAPE values as high as 1000 J/kg across the southwest. Peak thunderstorm coverage is likely from 5-8pm this evening. In addition, a heat advisory remains in effect south of the Triangle for heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees this afternoon. The coverage of thunderstorms should be less on Thursday, with the bulk of the thunderstorms expected to remain north and west of the forecast area. In addition, while high temperatures will be nearly the same between today and tomorrow, slightly drier air moving into the region Thursday should result in lower humidity and drop heat index values below advisory criteria. KEY MESSAGE 2... Chances for diurnally driven convection each day through the weekend, before drying out early-mid next week. Continued warm Fri and Sat, with near to below normal temperatures Sun and Mon. Aloft, a broad upper trough will sit over the region as a s/w progresses esewd across the Plains and into the MS Valley Fri/Fri night. The s/w will help amplify the trough as it continues esewd across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic over the weekend. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level anticyclone will strengthen over the Desert Southwest Fri/Sat, then lift nwd across the Rockies and ewd over the nrn/cntl Plains Sat night through Sun night. The trough will get pushed south and east next week as the high builds across the nrn/n- cntl CONUS. At the surface, a trough will remain in place over the area through Sat. A backdoor cold front should push swd-sswwd across the area Sun/Mon, while an area of low pressure develops off the Southeast US coast. The ridge may remain over the area as the low lifts newd along and off the East Coast Tue/Wed, but details are less clear that far out. Expect the greatest chances and coverage of convective activity Sat and Sun. As for temperatures, the warmest day should be Fri, with highs ranging from low 90s NW to upper 90s SE. Sun and Mon should be the (relatively) coolest days, with highs ranging from low-mid 80s N and NW to upper 80s/around 90 degrees S and SE. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 125 PM Wednesday... TAF period: While the 18Z TAFs do not call for any flight restrictions, there is definitely potential for these conditions to occur. One source of cig/vis restrictions would come from scattered thunderstorms which are currently in PROB30 groups at all terminals this afternoon/evening. Anywhere that a thunderstorm occurs, there could be brief flight restrictions. A second source of cig/vis restrictions are model soundings showing shallow low stratus between midnight and sunrise. Models are not in universal agreement that this would happen, and the sounding appears unlikely to occur if a given location doesn't receive any rainfall, but should thunderstorms develop over terminals, this will greatly increase the probability that later flight restrictions will develop due to additional low-level moisture. The wind will generally be light and variable with surface high pressure just off the Delmarva Peninsula. Outlook: Diurnally-driven thunderstorms should decrease in coverage on Thursday and Friday, primarily just influencing INT/GSO. A cold front passing from north to south over North Carolina this weekend will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, with more scattered coverage occurring on Monday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-077-078-085-086- 088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/10 AVIATION...Green  868 FXUS63 KLSX 081725 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm temperatures continue today, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly south and east of St. Louis. - More widespread thunderstorms are expected Thursday through Saturday. Some storms could be severe Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An upper level low near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois today. The low will drift northeast and weaken, eventually opening into a more progressive wave this evening. This will bring the chance for convection associated with this system to an end for our area. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday, except over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois due to more extensive cloud cover and scattered convection associated with the upper low. The next upstream short wave is already producing convection over the northeastern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. The wave will dig farther into the Midwest today, and then the next behind it will move into the Midwest late tonight, further amplifying the upper flow. Guidance shows another round of convection over eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that moves into northwest Missouri this evening. The convection will continue moving east overnight, and could reach central and northeast Missouri before 12Z Thursday morning, although it should be weak by that time and coverage may be limited. Carney && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Latest guidance suggests tonight's convection will generate an MCV which will track across the area on Thursday. Additionally, the composite outflow/surface front will drift across northern Missouri into central Illinois during the afternoon and provide a focus for convective development. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s along with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s and steepening lapse rates are forecast to produce very unstable conditions with CAPE in excess of 2000 J/Kg. Guidance also shows increasing deep- layer shear up to around 35kts which would support organized convection. Think the most likely scenario is that thunderstorms develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV/composite cold front over central or northeast Missouri and get organized into a broken line which moves quickly east-southeast. Damaging winds are the most likely threat, though some large hail is also possible given the CAPE profiles in model soundings. Think the severe thunderstorm threat should end during the evening as instability wanes. However, the low level boundary looks like it will remain draped over our area, most likely across the Ozarks, but this is uncertain. Models show a west-southwest low level jet developing during the evening which rides over the boundary producing moderate to strong moisture convergence. Convection is therefore likely to redevelop in the vicinity of the boundary and possibly train along it which would pose a heavy rain threat. Friday's weather continues to depend heavily on convective trends Thursday night. However, current thinking is the boundary will remain over our area, possibly drifting northward through the day as southerly flow increases ahead of another wave. The GFS develops 2000+ J/Kg of CAPE during the afternoon coincident with 30+ kts of shear which will produce another round of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening which could be severe.The long wave upper level ridge over the western U.S. begins strengthening and building east Friday night into Saturday. This will eventually push warmer air aloft into the Mid Mississippi Valley and finally cap the low levels. Additionally, the downstream long wave over the eastern U.S. will drag a drier airmass into the Great Lakes and Midwest. This will turn the low level flow over our area to the northeast and finally the surface boundary south. However, it's unclear how quickly this will happen. Guidance PoPs have increased Saturday and Sunday as the models build the ridge eastward more slowly in the latest runs. Additionally the LREF cluster analysis is showing variance in the position and amplitude of the ridge as it strengthens this weekend. This lends a great deal of uncertainty to the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, particularly across the Ozarks where the boundary would likely linger for the longest time. While PoPs now linger into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday continue to look warm and dry under the influence of the upper level ridge. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few isolated showers/weak thunderstorms are expected through early this evening, though mainly across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. KSTL/KCPS has ongoing activity nearby, but this may tend to weaken and shift elsewhere over the next hour or two. Dry weather is expected tonight, with rain chances increasing on Thursday, though mainly after 18Z. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  863 FXUS64 KMAF 081725 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Isolated thunderstorms (10-20%) will be possible this afternoon over the Big Bend. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mid to upper ridging persists and amplifies today into tomorrow over the Desert SW into Intermountain West, resulting in a warming trend in temperatures as increased sinking and warming motion occurs. With the mid to upper air pattern shifting and core of ridging forecast to be farther west than previously forecast, there will be room for terrain induced disturbances riding easterly flow aloft south of the ridge to focus lift and moisture convergence over northern and southern parts of the area. As a result, PoPs will be low (less than 10%) but not zero over the SE NM plains and Big Bend, where we cannot rule out a stray shower/storm today or tomorrow. However, with PWATs remaining close to 1.00", dew point depressions remaining greater than 20F, and light south/southeast winds overlain by light east/northeast winds, rainfall accumulations are likely to remain light and the main risk remaining lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and strong winds in any stronger storms. Highs today rise into the 95F-100F range even for much of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend and remain in the 85F-90F range for higher elevations. Lows tonight fall into the 70F-75F range southern and eastern parts of the region, 65F- 70F in cooler regions, and 60F-65F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos. Tomorrow offers similar to today in terms of temperatures. However, highs rise a few degrees warmer into the triple digits along the Pecos River, on the Upper Trans Pecos, northeast Permian Basin, and along the Presidio Valley into Big Bend, and 95F-100F highs elsewhere apart from highs into the 90F-95F range higher elevations. Tomorrow night, lows similar to today but warmer can be expected. South/southeast winds prevail through the period with dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s F, mid 40s to lower 50s F basins of Culberson County into northern Guadalupes, maintaining a dry but stagnant feel to the air despite the warming trend. Increased rain chances at the end of the week into the weekend are still in the forecast. More details on this in the Long Term Discussion below. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package as warm and mainly dry conditions are expected through Saturday. This is thanks to an elongated upper ridge of high pressure over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. High temperatures are forecast to generally range from the mid 90s to lower 100s Friday afternoon. Warmer temperatures between 105 to 110 degrees are expected for areas along the Rio Grande and Pecos River. These high temperatures will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses for those outdoors for prolonged periods. Be sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and necessary precautions if outdoors! By Friday night, the ridge weakens and transitions northward into the Central Rockies. As a result, this will cool high temperatures a couple of degrees on Saturday compared to Friday. Besides the heat, surface troughing across the southern Rockies, upslope flow, and disturbances within the flow aloft creates a low chance (10-30%) of isolated storms over the Guadalupe, Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico plains, and portions of far West Texas both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Sunday, the aforementioned ridge of high pressure shifts farther northeast toward the Northern High Plains. Shortwave impulses rounding the periphery of the ridge brings upper-level moisture and ascent, thus increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms areawide Sunday through early next week. Northeasterly flow aloft and southeasterly surface winds increase cloud cover, keeping afternoon highs cooler in the low to mid 90s for most locations Sunday through Tuesday. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will remain southerly to southeasterly up to 10-15 knots with occasional higher gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 97 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 71 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 96 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 91 67 93 69 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 96 69 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 90 60 93 62 / 10 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 95 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 98 72 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...21  804 FXUS64 KTSA 081724 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Isolated to widely scattered storm today and Thursday with localized strong downburst winds possible. - Heat builds today into Thursday and Heat Advisories may be needed. - Storm chances trend higher Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures likely near to slightly below normal through this same time frame. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The area remains positioned between upper level ridging to the west and an area of lower pressure over the southeastern US today. A diffuse front remains draped across the CWA with lee troughing across the central high plains. This pattern will allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon. HREF neighborhood probabilities continue to indicate southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas will be most favored for any development, though low chances will exist across much of the area. Precipitation chances diminish this evening with loss of daytime heating. By late tonight into Thursday morning, a shortwave will move east out of the Rockies and traverse the central plains, providing additional low rain/storm chances across NE OK and NW AR after 06z. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across parts of NE OK and the AR River Valley. With dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s, heat index values are forecast to warm into the lower 100s this afternoon. A few locations may briefly warm into advisory criteria (105F+) but coverage is expected to remain low and relatively brief, which precludes advisory issuance at this time. With that said, if conditions trend warmer, a short-fused advisory may be warranted. Low temperatures will be quite warm tonight as light southerly winds persist. A few of the warmer locations my struggle to fall below 80 degrees, but most locations will land in the mid to upper 70s tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing to start Thursday morning, particularly along and north of I-44. Any activity could leave a boundary in place across northern portions of the area and low rain and storm chances will continue across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into the afternoon hours. Overall, coverage continues to vary within short-range guidance, but at least isolated activity will be possible during the day with the aforementioned shortwave in the vicinity. Given stronger wind shear along the KS and MO borders, a couple strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. As the wave passes, surface winds are likely to increase out of the southwest during the day given a tight NW-SE pressure gradient. This will increase afternoon temperatures further, with highs potentially approaching 100 degrees in the typically warmer areas (Tulsa metro and AR River Valley). While dewpoints will likely be lower as well, any areas in NE OK or the AR River Valley unaffected by morning/afternoon convection will likely still experience heat indices near or above 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for portions of the area, but with uncertainties regarding any remnant outflow boundaries and afternoon convection, will hold off issuing with this forecast package. Thursday night into Friday, a stronger wave is expected to produce an MCS that will track east off the central high plains. While this activity will likely move toward the FA, convective evolution andpotential impacts to our area remain uncertain. CAMs are not overly excited at the moment, but the potential will remain under this pattern and slight chance PoPs were maintained near the KS and MO borders. Any remnant outflow boundaries may provide focus for additional development during the day Friday. Similar to Thursday, limited severe potential will exist, with strong to severe wind gusts possible. As the wave progresses east, it will push a frontal boundary south into S KS. This front will tend to remain in the vicinity and sag southward over the weekend. As weak troughing aloft develops over the area, rain and storm chances will trend up Friday night through this weekend. Upper level ridging strengthens over the northern plains early next week, with a persistent weakness in heights over our area. This will continue to provide low precipitation chances across the FA, but with a trend toward drier conditions by mid-late week as ridging expands into the area. Temperatures will move back to seasonal averages under this pattern next week, though heat indices will still approach or exceed 100 degrees at times. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with mainly diurnal low cloudiness this afternoon and late tonight, into tomorrow morning, mid and high cloud. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are again expected but the chance of on-station impacts is low at any one place. BVO will be most likely to see a shower late tonight into early tomorrow morning, and a VCSH will be included. There is a low chance of thunder with that activity but will not be mentioned. LLWS potential remains likely at all sites late tonight into early tomorrow, but particularly the NE OK ones. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 97 79 100 79 / 20 10 20 20 FSM 96 77 98 79 / 20 10 10 10 MLC 96 79 97 79 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 95 75 98 75 / 0 20 20 20 FYV 92 72 95 76 / 20 10 20 10 BYV 91 73 95 77 / 20 0 20 20 MKO 95 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 0 MIO 93 75 96 75 / 0 20 20 20 F10 96 77 97 79 / 20 10 10 0 HHW 94 77 95 76 / 20 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...22  807 FXUS65 KRIW 081724 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1124 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures through the afternoon and early evening with best chances for stronger thunderstorms with 20-30% coverage across southern Sweetwater and up to northern Johnson County. Gusty outflow winds up to 45 to 55 mph the main threat between 1300-1900L. - Warming trend through the weekend with a downward trend for thunderstorm activity. - The hottest weather over the year and potentially in some time arrives this weekend, with some all time record high temperatures possible. The best chance all time record high temperatures will be on Sunday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 I have a question for you this morning. What do these things have in common: gas pressure and volume, supply and demand and speed and travel time. If you answered inverse relationships, you would be right. And that is what we will have over the next week, as the temperature goes up, the chance of convection goes down. Today will be somewhat similar to yesterday. Another shortwave will be moving through the area. We also continue to have fairy steep low and mid level lapse rates. Instability values are also decent, with some portions of the area (mainly the northeastern portions of the area) having over 1000 J/Kg of CAPE and lifted indices as low as minus 5. There will be one difference though, and this will be a trend over the next few days. And that is that precipitable water values are a lower than yesterday, especially West of the Divide. But even East of the Divide, values are 10 to 20 percent lower. It is still around 130 percent of normal though. As a result, it will be another day anywhere from a 1 in 5 to 2 out of 5 chance of a shower or thunderstorm, with the best chance in the afternoon and evening and across northern and far southern Wyoming. The lowest chance will be across the west with less than a 1 in 10 chance. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, near to somewhat above normal. As for any stronger storms, the best chance would be over Johnson County where there is a marginal risk, with strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail the main threats. Strong wind gusts will be a threat with any shower or thunderstorm though, even further west where dew point depressions will be larger. The downward trend in convection continues on Thursday as drier works a little further east. There will still be some convection around, but most would be confined to East of the Divide again and especially in Johnson and Natrona Counties where the deepest moisture will remain. Temperatures look largely similar to today. The inverse relationship really begins on Friday as ridging over the desert southwest begins to push northward with rising heights and temperatures aloft. This is the day when below normal precipitable waters will push across the entire area. We can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm, mainly over the northern mountains, but even here the chance is less than 1 out of 5. Temperatures will also begin to really rise, with the normally warmer spots seeing high temperatures approaching 100. It is Saturday when we really begin to throw some coal into the blast furnace, otherwise known as a death ridge. Heights across the area will climb to over 5950 meters at 500 millibars, and bring definitely the hottest weather of the year. The NBM ensemble gives a greater than 1 out of 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees in locations 5200 feet or below, with a nearly 100 percent chance in the warmer spots likely from Thermopolis up to Greybull. All locations below 6500 feet have a 4 out of 5 chance of temperatures over 90 degrees. Some records willlikely fall on this day. With the dry air in place and warm temperatures aloft, the chance of convection looks just about nil. However, the heat looks to peak on Monday. This mornings guidance shows 700 millibar temperatures climbing as high as 24 degrees celsius. This combined with nearly full sunshine will lead to one of the hottest days in quite a while. Ensemble guidance shows a nearly 100 percent chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees below 5500 feet, and places like Rock Springs, Green River and even Jackson have a greater than 1 out 3 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees. When we go up to 105 degrees, ensemble guidance gives a greater than 4 out of 5 chance of this from Thermopolis to Greybull, with Riverton even having a 1 out of 2 chance. And going up even further, to 110, there is a 2 out of 5 chance a place like Greybull or Worland could reach this temperature. We could see some all time high temperatures fall on this day as the 5980 500 millibar ridge will be centered just about over Wyoming. We should begin to take a couple of degrees off of the highs on Monday as the ridge retreats to the east just a bit. However, most areas below 5500 feet will again have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees. And with the ridge moving East, some moisture, mainly of the mid level variety will begin to come around the back side of the ridge. A couple of storms are possible on Monday, but chances increase more on Tuesday and into Wednesday. With the low levels remaining rather dry, these thunderstorms would produce more wind than rain though. Convection should be on the isolated side though with most locations not seeing one on any given day. Temperatures will drop somewhat from the blast furnace levels of the weekend, but look to remain above normal through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Multiple weak shortwaves will work their way east across/near Wyoming within zonal flow aloft Wednesday. One wave was cruising across southern Montana, while another was approaching northern Utah accompanied by an ACCAS field late Wednesday morning. These waves combine with mid-level moisture to again produce afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms. PROB30 groups are included for most terminals, with activity favored over/near KRKS, KCOD, and KWRL. Temperature-dew point spreads increase Wednesday afternoon leading to the primary hazard being gusty outflow wind 35-45kts. The more robust storms could still produce a very brief, less than 30-minute, period of MVFR visibility. The best chance would be east of the Continental Divide where moisture profiles would be more favorable. Deeper convection wanes around sunset tonight, but enough mid-level moisture remains to allow for lingering light showers overnight, mainly across the south. Other than convective outflows, gusty westerly surface wind 10-20kts blows during the afternoon and early evening at terminals west of the Divide. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...CNJ  874 FXUS66 KPQR 081725 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 1025 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Updated Aviation and Marine discussions .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow and varying degrees of morning cloud cover will bring seasonable temperatures July 8-11 along with continued dry weather. Temperatures trend warmer July 12-14 as upper level flow becomes southwesterly upstream of an amplifying upper level ridge over the central U.S. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday...The forecast is highlighted by persistent onshore flow, seasonable temperatures, and continued dry weather across the CWA. Model ensemble guidance is in good agreement for an extended period of near zonal flow aloft from Tuesday night through at least Thursday night. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly late Friday into the weekend. At the surface, onshore flow is expected to persist. This typical summer-time weather pattern will bring temperatures that are around normal for this time of year. Onshore flow at the surface will also result in varying degrees of morning cloud cover and plenty of afternoon sun. Expect daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for inland valleys with highs in the low 60s to low 70s along the coast and high Cascades through Saturday. As the weekend approaches, model spread for temperatures begins to increase slightly over the weekend for inland valleys, with highs ranging anywhere from the upper 70s to upper 80s, with the coast and Cascades warming in a similar pattern, thus having daytime highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. The daytime high will be highly dependent on how widespread morning cloud cover is and how early in the day cloud cover is able to scatter out. The current forecast favors more widespread and persistent cloud cover on Saturday when compared to Sunday. Beyond the weekend, confidence is high temperatures will begin to warm early next week with less cloud cover. This warming trend is in response to increasing 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures upstream of an amplifying upper level ridge over the central United States. Since the ridge axis will be located east of the Rocky Mountains and far removed from the Pacific Northwest, extreme heat is not expected with this synoptic pattern. Instead, a more modest warm-up is likely with high temperatures most likely peaking in the mid to upper 80s for inland valleys. Meanwhile, the coast will remain cooler with highs staying in the low 60s to low 70s. It should be noted that there is a 15-35% chance for highs of 90 degrees or warmer across the Willamette Valley, Portland/Vancouver metro, Columbia River Gorge, and Upper Hood River Valley on Monday and a 20-50% chance for highs of 90 degrees or warmer on Tuesday. Chances for highs above 95 degrees on Monday and Tuesday are around 10-20%, with the highest probability on Tuesday. While this pattern does not favor extreme heat; probabilistic HeatRisk guidance suggests there is a 20-50% chance for Moderate HeatRisk within the Willamette Valley,Portland/Vancouver metro, Columbia River Gorge, and Upper Hood River Valley Monday and Tuesday, with higher probabilities on Tuesday. /42-23 && .AVIATION...Relatively weak west to northwest flow aloft today as a broad upper level trough persists over the region. Onshore flow in the lower levels has pushed marine stratus to the coast and into parts of southwest Washington and the northern Willamette Valley, reaching as far south as KUAO. IFR to lower-end MVFR CIGs are expected to persist at coastal terminals through 19-21z this afternoon, while inland MVFR stratus should scatter out by 18-20z. Predominately VFR conditions are then expected to remain for inland terminals through much of the TAF period, as there is currently just a 10-20% chance for stratus to redevelop tomorrow morning. Coastal locations are more likely to see marine stratus push back onshore after 04-08z Thursday with around a 30-40% chance of IFR conditions developing. Northwest winds are expected to increase this afternoon to around 10-15 kt, while gusts up to 25 kt will be possible along the central Oregon coast. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR stratus is expected to improve toward VFR around 18-20z as clouds scatter out this afternoon. Northwest winds are also expected to increase to around 10-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible between 00-06z Thu. /DH && .MARINE...High pressure will maintain north to northwesterly winds across the coastal waters through the week. Winds generally remain around 15 kt or less, though pressure gradients are expected to tighten later this afternoon and evening producing gusts up to 25 kt near the central Oregon coast. Thus, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters south of Cape Foulweather between 3 PM today and 2 AM tonight. Isolated gusts up to 20-22 kt will also be possible south of Cape Falcon. Conditions ease slightly on Thursday, and moreso on Friday, as a weak front approaches the waters. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  990 FXUS63 KDVN 081727 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms late this evening. Main hazard will be damaging wind. - Additional storms Thursday and Friday, with isolated severe possible and heavy downpours. - Above normal temperatures next week, with a prolonged period of heat becoming more likely. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Morning satellite and radar imagery show an MCS over MN/SD that recent loops have begun to show signs of weakening, especially its eastward extent. Closer to home, weak high pressure was overhead with very light south winds. Temperatures were 2 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Another warm and humid day is in store for the region, with slightly warmer 850mb temps (18-19C), similar mixing depths, and plentiful sunshine yielding afternoon highs near 90 degrees and heat indices in the lower 90s. Attention then turns to the evolution of storms initiating to our northwest this afternoon/evening. The latest 00z HREF and 00z REFS neighborhood and paintball progs show two main areas to watch this evening for storm development; over west central WI/southeast MN and another over western IA. Sufficient instability (CAPE 1500-2000 J/Kg) and moisture will be in place as storms fire along a cool front. However, marginal deep layer shear, weak mid-level lapse rates, and not ideal time of arrival become the limiting factors and lead to lower confidence in severe storms reaching our area. Nonetheless, will need to watch the activity out west this evening for any developing cold pools. If they can maintain their strength and reach the northwest portions of the CWA, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. The SPC has introduced a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms north of a line from Belle Plaine to Dyersville. The primary hazard will be damaging wind with any bowing segments and with slow storm motions, heavy rain will also be possible. A general timing of severe storms would be between 7pm and midnight. There will also be sub-severe activity in the area during this period and overnight. Thursday morning low temperatures will only drop into the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday...the aforementioned cold front to drop south and stall over northern MO, with another shortwave progged to move along it during the afternoon/evening. A strengthening mid-level jet and low level convergence may allow for widely scattered showers/storms to develop during the afternoon and evening as suggested by the 00z REFS. Whether this activity will bring a severe risk is still uncertain. Cloud debris from any morning storms may limit atmosphere recovery and thereby keep the severe risk further to our south and east. In any case, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms remains for northeast MO and west central IL. Friday-Saturday...frontal boundary to continue to drop well to the south of the area, taking with it any lingering precipitation. Some 00z model solutions (NAM/GFS) show yet another shortwave tracking east out of the central Plains Friday, bringing with it scattered showers/storms along an elevated theta-e boundary. As a result, the forecast has 30-50% chances for storms primarily south of I-80 during the afternoon and evening. Severe potential is a little uncertain, with marginal deep layer shear. However, if a convectively augmented MCV were to take place upstream enhancing the wind field, then some severe storms would be possible. Looking into Saturday, high pressure to build into the area behinddeparting system resulting in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures in the middle 80s. Early next week...model guidance continues to show a large anomalous upper ridge (12z NAEFS/ENS 2.5 to 3 sigma from their ensemble mean) building into the central CONUS. In fact, the 12z GEFS/ENS/GEPS has this ridge encompassing most of the lower 48 by 12z Tuesday with its center not that far away from the local area. As a result, a prolonged period of dry conditions, above normal temps, and building heat is likely. Factoring in evapotranspiration of maturing crops, I wouldn't be surprised to see more heat headlines needed for at least a portion of the area. Apparent T probabilities of 95 degrees or higher off the LREF (100 member ensemble of the GEFS/ENS/GEPS) are in the 40-60% range Tuesday-Thursday. If that were not enough, the latest CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook has a Moderate (40-60%) risk of extreme heat for most of the CWA July 15th-17th. Summer heat lovers rejoice, but for all the rest of us, we will need to wait until later in the month for some relief perhaps from storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for much, if not all, of the TAF period. Current observations show a field of daytime cumulus at 3500 ft developing along a line from BRL to MLI to just south of DBQ. Winds through daylight hours will remain light and variable. Late tonight in the 09/02-07Z window, there is potential for a decaying cluster of storms to move into eastern IA and impact CID/DBQ. At this time, low confidence in storms continuing has kept these as a PROB30, with mention of TS only at DBQ, where confidence is highest but still limited. If storms are stronger, there may be some brief MVFR/IFR vsbys in heavy rain at CID/DBQ. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gross LONG TERM...Gross AVIATION...Ellingworth  014 FXUS63 KJKL 081728 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 128 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - There is a high chance of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is expected at times through the first half of this weekend, with a threat of isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. - A Flood Watch has been issued for flash flood potential across the area, and is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Saturday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A Flood Watch has been issued from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for the growing potential for more widespread instances of flash flooding. Before then, from this afternoon through Thursday morning, isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible with any localized excessive rainfall from slow- moving and/or training showers and thunderstorms. Hourly PoPs were generally expanded and increased from the prior forecast for the remainder of today and tonight, with little other needed changes to the grids at this time in the near term. UPDATE Issued at 930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire, with satellite imagery showing fog and low stratus burning off fairly rapidly. Primary update was to trend higher with Sky cover, utilizing more of a blend of models. Otherwise, updates to hourly T/Td grids were made in the near term, with the latest observations used to initialize the NDFD database. UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Almost a repeat of yesterday morning with a need for a Dense Fog Advisory, though it seems to be lifting to a stratus so may not be as much of a concern for valleys now. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These tweaks have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 445 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 08Z sfc analysis still shows a weak and ill defined pressure pattern over eastern Kentucky. This is allowing the diurnal cycle to be the main driver of the weather. At night, the convection dies off along with much of the clouds allowing very limited radiation cooling and the development of fog - becoming dense in the valleys. Again due to high humidity there is minimal terrain differences showing up in the temperatures. Specifically, readings are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s with similar dewpoints, amid light to calm winds. An SPS is again in effect for areas of dense fog early this morning across the entirety of the JKL CWA. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast even as they indicate more amplification to end the work week. Initially, they all depict a positively tilted 5h trough in place over the Tennessee Valley through western Kentucky. This trough will fill and dampen through Thursday as it slowly drifts east with very small height falls for the area. Late in the period the westerlies at mid-level running through the northern Ohio Valley start to speed up and settle south toward Kentucky. This essentially sets the stage for additional short waves - some probably convectively induced from upstream - to impact the area into the start of the weekend. Given the good enough agreement among the models through 00Z Friday, the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids with some adjustment applied for very minor terrain details in temperatures tonight. As for PoPs, consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage were included from the latest CAMruns. These were again smoothed and fitted to a reasonable diurnal trend - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics possibly extending the convection later into the nights than the past couple of them. Sensible weather features typical summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be warm and humid with mainly afternoon and evening convection. Overlaid on this fairly predictable pattern will be the potential for outside influence in the form of waves at mid level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly on Thursday and beyond. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - becoming cumulative by week's end with isolated flood concerns peaking. In addition to the excessive rain, we will also need to be on the look out for organized convection from those strengthening and nearing westerlies bringing perturbances closer to the area such that damaging wind gusts could be possible from any more organized storms Thursday afternoon and evening - especially over our western zones. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Thursday evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday. The previous long term discussion follows: Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast. Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday, as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the Intermountain West. For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall, and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday. Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday, with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A mix of conditions is expected this afternoon and evening with scattered showers/ thunderstorms persisting through much of the period. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions likely lingering later into the evening than the past couple of nights. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...CMC  038 FXUS63 KTOP 081729 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms move across the area tonight. Locally damaging wind gusts and heavy rain possible, mainly towards north-central KS. - Storm chances continue Thursday and Friday, though details of each round will be dependent on how prior convection evolves. - Temperatures generally stay near average through the weekend, followed by a warming trend next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another quiet morning across eastern KS, but lee troughing and convection over the central High Plains are signs of change on the way. Surface ridging near the KS/MO will shift away today as the cut- off upper low over the Ozarks finally gets kicked eastward. As southerly low-level flow gets reestablished, today should be a few degrees warmer than the past few. Highs climb into the mid 90s for most, with heat indices generally 95-100. As lee troughing continues to deepen to our west, another round of convection will develop this evening across western KS and southwest NE. Persistent isentropic ascent around 700 mb should help keep convection going into north- central KS, particularly if an appreciable cold pool can develop. Effective shear has trended a bit stronger (to around 30 kts) compared to yesterday, so have more confidence now in damaging wind potential (gusts 60-65 mph) as storms approach north-central KS towards midnight. Increasing capping and weaker instability with eastern extent means storms should still weaken eventually as they approach eastern KS. Could also see some locally heavy rain totals of 2-4" across north-central KS, given 1.75" PWATs and some degree of training convection. While this could result in isolated flooding issues, the steady eastward motion of the system keeps the potential for larger flooding issues low, especially with the past few days of dry conditions. The overnight storms shift to the east by mid-morning tomorrow, with increasing confidence that this will push an outflow boundary/effective cold front southward through most of the area. So adjusted high temperatures Thursday 4-5 degrees cooler, closer to the HREF mean in the mid/upper 80s. Confidence is lower with additional precipitation chances Thursday afternoon into Friday. If the main boundary stays south of the area, as is trending more likely, that would reduce chances for PM severe thunderstorm development. Could still see some scattered showers and storms north of the boundary, mainly Thursday and Friday nights as the LLJ strengthens isentropic ascent. Could see some lingering rain chances through the weekend as the boundary stays nearby across Oklahoma and Arkansas. However we should generally dry out as the boundary sags farther south and upper ridging strengthens over the Rockies. By next week, this ridging will further strengthen and expand northeast over the Northern Plains. Very good consistency in the LREF for 500 mb heights to approach 600 dam somewhere over the north-central CONUS. So very good confidence in heat increasing next week, though at least through mid-week the most anomalous heat should stay to our north. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions continue through this evening before showers/storms approach terminals after 06z. Guidance has been a bit inconsistent in timing and coverage of storms, but confidence is high enough to include mention of TS for a few hours. Storms move east of terminals around sunrise Thursday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Flanagan  114 FXUS61 KBOX 081730 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 130 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters has been extended until 8 pm this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm today with sea breezes possible along the east coast. - Becoming warmer with increasing humidity Thursday and Friday. Chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly on Friday. - Much drier and cooler this upcoming weekend as a cooler airmass settles in. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry and warm today with sea breezes possible along the east coast. High pressure settles in for Wednesday with dry and clear conditions building in for the entire CWA by the afternoon. Could see some lingering patches of fog along the Cape and Islands with some patchy low level moisture. Expecting any fog to quickly mix out this morning with mid level RH values falling to 5-10%. Expect a dry and clear day with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Winds will be light out of the N/NW with sea breezes possible along the east coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Becoming warmer with increasing humidity Thursday and Friday. Chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly on Friday. Broad WSW flow brings warmer and increasingly humid conditions Thursday and Friday. The warm and humid airmass pairs with a weak disturbance arriving from the Ohio Valley to bring a risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly to portions of Southern New England later Thursday into Thursday night. CSU machine learning probs still highlight the greatest chance for severe weather over the Mid Atlantic Ensemble guidance continues to show a better potential for thunderstorms on Friday with a cold front moving into southern New England later in the day. the front moves into a moist unstable airmass marked by dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. In terms of instability, the NBM shows a 40-60% chance for CAPE values >1000J/kg across the interior. That said, the risk of severe weather is still quite low with poor middle-tropospheric lapse rates leading to tall-skinny CAPE profiles and deep layer shear in the 30 kt range. Higher confidence in warm, humid weather both days with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, supporting heat indices in the mid 90s to mid/upper 90s, more likely falling short of heat headlines. KEY MESSAGE 3...Much drier and cooler this upcoming weekend as a cooler airmass settles in. For the weekend the 500 mb pattern transitions to one of cyclonic flow/troughing in the mean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to mid 80s) and lower humidity levels. Weekend appears favorable for outdoor plans with nice summer weather. We'll be on the western periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge of nearly 600 dm building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We could have to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the ridge but it looks as though the weekend ends up drier than not. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. Light and variable winds away from the south coastal terminals, except a seabreeze at BOS until 00-02z. FEW-SCT cloud deck around 4kft Wednesday night...High confidence. VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts. Thursday...High confidence. VFR. SW winds 8-12 kts with gusts 20-25 kts. Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible after 20Z. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday Night...High confidence. SCA conditions continue in the the coastal waters through the day today with NE wind gusts around 25 kts. Conditions improve overnight into Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. A weak front approaches the region later Thursday with showers and thunderstorms possible over the southern waters. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007- 014>016-019-022-024. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250- 254-255. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/McMinn AVIATION...Loconto/McMinn MARINE...Loconto/McMinn  216 FXUS62 KGSP 081731 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 131 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the public forecast. The Aviation section has been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Seasonally hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday, then a slight cool-down for Sunday and Monday. Though a Heat Advisory is not likely to be issued, those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. 2. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected across mainly western North Carolina through Friday before a cold front brings better shower and thunderstorm chances area-wide this weekend into Monday. A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible during peak heating hours each day through Friday, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Seasonally hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday, then a slight cool-down for Sunday and Monday. Though a Heat Advisory is not likely to be issued, those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. The Bermuda High slowly breaks down through the end of the week and will be replaced by a weak upper trof that will support increasing storm coverage, yet temps will remain seasonally hot through Saturday...generally five degrees or so above normal. Typical summertime humidity will also continue to be a factor, but dewpoint is expected to mix out enough to keep us from reaching Heat Advisory criteria each afternoon. Model guidance continues to show a bit more breezy than usual in the afternoons, which might feel like a bit of a relief, but more likely the relief will come from showers and storms. By the weekend, a weak front will drop down into the region courtesy of a short wave in the nrn stream, which will eventually push the front through perhaps on Sunday. The increase in storm coverage and cloud cover may drop the temps back to normal Sunday, but more likely that will happen for Monday. There remains plenty of uncertainty as to the development of weak cold air damming early in the week because of a transitory sfc high moving across New England, but for now we will keep the below normal temps Monday. Some of the guidance suggests the cooler air will linger into Tuesday. Welcome relief...if it develops. Key message 2: Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected across mainly western North Carolina through Friday before a cold front brings better shower and thunderstorm chances area-wide this weekend into Monday. A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible during peak heating hours each day through Friday, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop. For the afternoon, the main concern is the Marginal Risk of severe storms over the northwest Piedmont and northern part of metro Charlotte, but really anywhere east of the mountains where storms develop. The environment is characterized by sfc-based CAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range, but with dCAPE above 800 J/kg everywhere east of the mtns, and sfc-delta theta-e around 30K. Thus, the environment is supportive of wet microbursts outside the mtns, even if the HRRR shows the convective activity mainly over central NC. More of the same is expected for Thursday and Friday, with improving coverage each day, above climo, and favoring the mtns the most even if the pulse-severe risk might be slightly higher east of the mtns. The main hazard with any severe storms will remain damaging wind gusts from microbursts. As the coverage improves, the flash flood risk will also increase over mainly the NC mountains as we get into this weekend and the boundary sinks down into the region. Precipitable water will climb up into the 2 inch vicinity which is approaching the top end of the climatology. Note the Day3-5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a slight risk in the TN valley into the west side of the mtns, so we will be watching that situation. Drier conditions should return by Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into the region behind the departing front. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Prevailing VFR across the region through the TAF period, with the usual caveats for diurnal thunderstorms and the usual mtn valley fog potential at KAVL. A cumulus field will continue to develop over the region through the afternoon and a brief broken low cloud ceiling can't be ruled out, but the cloud bases will be 050 or higher. The main concern will be thunderstorms through early evening, and our thinking hasn't changed with regard to the NC terminals having the best chances. Will maintain the TEMPO at KAVL because of the convection already forming on the ridges, and the PROB30 over the Piedmont/foothill locations. The HRRR still doesn't develop storms over the Upstate terminals, so they are left out and will be amended if necessary. Wind should stay SW with some low end gusts over the Upstate. Fair weather should prevail across the region tonight. No indication of fog/low clouds right now at KAVL, but that will change if storms happen there. Expect a very similar day on Thursday. Outlook: The NC terminals will have the best potential to see TSRA each afternoon and evening through Friday. SHRA/TSRA chances return for all terminals this weekend into Monday. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in locations that see appreciable rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ PM  213 FXUS63 KUNR 081731 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1131 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Unsettled through Thursday as a series of disturbances move through the region -Sufficient moisture and shear is in place to support a few strong to severe storms -Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Tuesday) Issued at 1103 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impulse filled westerly flow remains in place over the FA. Daily chances for thunderstorms can be expected with strong to severe storms possible at times, through Thursday. Weak impulse will advect through the SW third this afternoon and support TS clusters. Ample LL moisture in place combined with sufficient deep layer shear will support a few strong to severe storms, with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, mainly INVOF of the Black Hills. Given ML CAPE of 1-2 KJ/KG, deep bulk layer shear of 35 to 40 knots expect isolated supercells to be possible, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Storms will carry SE across the SW FA through the evening. More storms are expected Thur as sufficient LL moisture will be in place with weak stability and another impulse. Best chances for storms will be in the afternoon/evening. Similar CAPE/shear parameters will be in place to again support a few strong to severe storms, esp over the SW third. Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend, with dry and hot conds expected. Hot temps around 35C at h85 with close to 6000m H5 heights over WY, will offer record to near record highs well into the 100s with some areas seeing readings around 110 on portions of the Plains, esp Sunday and Monday. However, given how dry the BL will be with dewpoints falling into the 20s in the west to the 50s east, apparent T's will only top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s, highest on the SD Plains, supporting adv level numbers. Ridge begins to retrograde the middle of next week, with storm chances returning as the active northern periphery of the ridge settles back south. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1127 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 With the low clouds nearly burnt off, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However, brief chances of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon around 20Z lasting into the evening for both sites. These storms may produce erratic and gusty winds as well as frequent lightning. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...Schweigert  211 FXUS64 KHUN 081731 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The fog has been stubborn to erode this morning but visibilities finally improved after 8am. Today, we will have another low to medium chance (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms across the TN Valley. Today, an upper low in the southern OH Valley will become an open wave today and there is a stationary boundary to our north as well. This boundary will scoot southward as the wave swings through today. Combined with lingering boundaries out there, we'll see low chances (20-60%) across the TN Valley, mainly this afternoon and early evening. Highest coverage seems to be north of the TN River, closer to that boundary. Instability will be just over 1,000 J/kg, with weak bulk shear and high PWATS just under 2", leaving our main hazards as gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Daytime highs will reach the upper 80s to 90 degrees with heat index values in the upper 90s. Tonight, with an abundance of moisture in place and light/variable winds, patchy fog is possible once again. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 On Thursday, that open wave will weaken and continue to lift northeastward but the stationary boundary that scooted southward may stall over the TN Valley. This will bring low to medium chances (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. These storms can create gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However, would not rule out a downburst with the PWATS ~1.6", DCAPE ~1300 J/Kg, ML CAPE 1600-1900 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees. SPC has placed us in a Marginal outlook (risk level 1/5) on Friday. A weak trough will be along the eastern seaboard with a few weak disturbances sliding through ahead of a shortwave up in the Midwest. Friday afternoon and evening forecast soundings look even better for an opportunity to see downbursts. Instability will increase towards 3,000 J/kg, PWATS ~1.8, ThetaE difference ~30C and pretty steep low level lapse rates. Local strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the primary hazards. Looking into Saturday, forecast soundings suggest another potential afternoon and evening with storms that could produce downbursts. The storms may be the main story, however do not forget about the heat. Heat index values Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Stay weather aware Thursday through Saturday and ensure you stay safe indoors, outdoors, and on the go. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures will be near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much ofa threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration. Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may also result in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Daytime heating of a moist airmass has in part lead to the development of isolated showers across the area. Cell movement was east around 10kt. Additional shower and thunderstorm formation should occur across the Tenn Valley this afternoon into the evening. Given move activity was in progress more to the west, have higher confidence of convection impacting KMSL, so have a TEMPO (~50% PoPs) in for afternoon storms. Lesser rain chances (~30%) will be realized at KHSV so maintained PROB30 concerning convection. Although in the TAFs have CIG/VSBY reductions to MVFR, brief lower values cannot be ruled out due to the heavier showers and/or stronger storms, along with erratic gusty winds. Shower activity should end this evening. Fog development also cannot be ruled out in the late night, and would be more prevalent in/near areas that received wetting rainfall. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....JMS LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RSB  217 FXUS64 KOHX 081731 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and weekend. Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible through the end of the week, mainly west of the Plateau. - Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with stronger, slower-moving storms. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 As a low pressure system swirls near the bootheel of MO on satellite, showers and thunderstorms are beginning to kick off in Middle Tennessee. We're expecting coverage to increase as the low pushes east this afternoon and evening. While some of these thunderstorms will be loud, produce heavy downpours, and maybe include some gusty winds, we're not expecting any severe storms today. Shear is extremely low, meaning the storms won't be able to really sustain themselves long enough to become severe despite a fair amount of instability. Highs will get into the mid to upper 80s, with heat indices in the 90s this afternoon. Thursday will be similar for the area, with warmer highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. WAA will continue for the area through Saturday aloft, but the temperatures will have to contend with the precipitation. Despite this, we will still have heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s both Thursday and Friday. While the outlooked area remains north of the KY/TN state line, we're still looking at scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as the morning hours on Thursday. Greatest chances for thunderstorms seems to be east of I-65 currently, but other locations could see them as well. Again, we are not expecting severe storms at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Into the weekend, as various rain chances careen through Middle Tennessee, our chances for flooding will also increase as high PWATs continue to be a threat. Given the already saturated soils, and the risk for another 3 to 4 inches through Sunday, a Flood watch has been issued for Thursday through Sunday. We could also see some isolated severe storms Friday into Saturday, as we are in a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) outlook for severe weather from SPC. Marginal is the best word to describe our risk, as shear remains in the barely double digits which is far below what is necessary for sustained storms but CAPE is high across the region. Similar setups to what's going on in the short term, with the addition of some remnant outflow boundaries from previous storms. Hazards right now look to be mainly gusty winds and heavy rain, with no tornado risk expected at this time. Into next week, things look warmer, yet drier. I don't mean fewer rain chances, I mean less humidity. Walking outdoors will no longer feel like walking through a swimming pool, with heat indices forecasted to be close to air temperature through mid-week next week. Unfortunately, it does appear as rain chances will continue as NW flow will set up over Middle Tennessee as we find ourselves east of a strengthening ridge for the beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another day of popup convection is underway. Have kept the PROB30s going for all sites this afternoon given the expansive coverage of isolated storms. Other than the persistence precip forecast, expect light south/southwest winds and VFR conditions. More of the same tomorrow, though perhaps greater convective coverage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 90 74 90 / 30 30 70 80 Clarksville 70 91 74 89 / 30 30 70 70 Crossville 65 82 67 83 / 30 60 70 90 Columbia 69 90 72 90 / 30 40 50 70 Cookeville 67 84 70 84 / 40 60 70 90 Jamestown 66 83 68 83 / 40 60 70 90 Lawrenceburg 68 87 71 88 / 30 50 50 80 Murfreesboro 70 90 72 90 / 40 40 60 80 Waverly 69 90 73 89 / 30 30 60 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Dirkes  075 FXUS65 KPSR 081730 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1030 AM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .UPDATE...18Z Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures will continue through the rest of this week resulting in areas of major Heat Risk and Extreme Heat Warnings through Thursday across lower desert locations. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also continue over higher terrain areas of eastern Arizona today and to a lesser degree for Thursday and Friday. - The weather pattern will become very favorable for moisture import and more widespread thunderstorm activity by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... A modestly strong high pressure ridge continues to impact the region bringing hot temperatures and areas of Major HeatRisk. The ridge is becoming more elongated with a new ridge center forecast to form off the coast of southern California later today. Despite this subtle shift, H5 heights over the Desert Southwest will remain stable between 593-596dm through most of Thursday. Forecast highs peak today and/or Thursday across the region, ranging from 110-114 degrees across the south-central Arizona lower deserts to 112-117 degrees across southeast California and far southwest Arizona. Overnight lows will also be very uncomfortable as low level moisture has increased enough to prevent efficient nocturnal cooling. Lows over the next couple of nights will range from around 80 degrees over the cooler rural lower desert areas to as warm as the lower 90s in central Phoenix. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect for the bulk of the area through Thursday evening. Moisture within the region has improved since last week, but it mostly lies on the eastern fringes of the ridge as dry air continues to advect northeastward through southern California into the western 2/3rds of Arizona. Moisture profiles across the area are expected to remain stable today, but then somewhat decrease Thursday into Friday. Today's daytime convection should be very similar to what occurred yesterday with most of the scattered showers and storms remaining east of the Globe area, but another modest outflow is likely to form and attempt to push into eastern portions of the Phoenix area. Decreasing shower and storm coverage is then expected for Thursday as moisture decreases slightly and the upper level pattern becomes less favorable for deeper convection. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... The weather pattern will undergo a noticeable shift Friday and through the weekend as the high pressure ridge quickly tracks northeastward, with the center reaching Utah Saturday. The ridge is then forecast to expand, strengthen, and become the main driver of strong moisture advection back into the Desert Southwest going into next week. Friday should be another mostly dry day with hot temperatures still being the main concern across the area. Forecast highs are shown dipping a couple of degrees, but lower desert highs are still likely to top 110 degrees with small pockets of Major HeatRisk remaining, mainly across southeast California. Very limited convective potential on Friday should be confined to southeast Arizona with less than 10% PoPs across our CWA. As the high center finally shifts to our north into Saturday, it should first open up eastern and southern Arizona to an easterly moisture fetch. Moisture is still likely to be fairly limited on Saturday with afternoon convection currently favored more across southeast Arizona, but once the steering flow shifts out of the east moisture advection and storm chances are expected to spread westward through the rest of Arizona starting Sunday. Although forecast uncertainty remains fairly high going into next week, ensembles generally agreewe will enter a period of active monsoon weather. The subtropical high is favored to stay positioned over the Northern Plains into the Central Rockies for much of next week which will allow for fairly persistent moist easterly flow into the Desert Southwest. Ensemble member forecast PWATs show a wide spread, but also a meaningful average increase likely pushing past 1.3-1.4" starting Sunday. Forecast PoPs increase into a 20-40% range starting Sunday and generally stay there through the first half of next week. Any notable easterly waves moving through the flow will surely help drive our convective potential, but pinpointing those this far out is a dubious proposition. Outside of the expected increase in monsoon storm activity, temperatures should slip further toward seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Breezy outflow winds during the evening will be the main aviation concern during the TAF period. Best timing to see a sudden switch out of the E/SE from one of these boundaries looks to be between 02-04Z, with gusts 20-25 kt in accompaniment. In the meantime, W'rly winds will prevail through the afternoon, with typical gusts in the mid-teens to around 20 kt. The E'rly turn mentioned above with the evening outflow will stick through Thursday morning. Other than distant convective CU over eastern Arizona, skies around the terminals will be mostly clear. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours. Winds at KIPL will generally be out of the SE, with perhaps a very brief switch out of the SW this evening. At BLH, familiar diurnal trends will prevail as winds swing between SSE and SW, with gusts this afternoon around 20-25 kt. Periods of VRB conditions may also be observed during the nighttime hours, especially at KIPL. Clear skies will be common across the region through Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds with isolated lightning over the far eastern districts the next few afternoons will be the main fire weather concern. Outside of any potential outflows, winds should favor light and diurnal trends with typical afternoon breeziness around 20 mph. Afternoon RH values between 10-15% will be common across the region. Overnight recoveries will offer only limited to modest relief as MaxRH values range generally between 20- 45%. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal through the middle of the week, with the lowest elevations reaching between 110- 115 degrees. A decrease in monsoon activity is likely late week, before picking up again and becoming more widespread by early next week. Moisture levels and humidities should also improve considerably by early next week, alleviating much of the fire weather concerns. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ530>534- 536>551-553>555-559-560-562. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ562-564>570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  276 FXUS61 KALY 081733 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 133 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) introduced in the Day 2 SPC Convective Outlook focused in the western Adirondacks. Damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storms. Lowered dew points Thursday and Friday to reduce coverage of potentially hitting heat advisory criteria, especially on Thursday. Changed shower/thunderstorm wording on Thursday to coverage (isolated/scattered) rather than probabilistic (slight chance/chance) given weak forcing. WPC also introduce a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in far northern Herkimer and Hamilton County on Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The combination of increasing heat and humidity presents a low chance for isolated areas where heat index values near 95 degrees in the Greater Capital District on Thursday. However, given isolated nature, heat advisories are unlikely. 2) There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and Friday as a cold front approaches with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms tomorrow in the western Adirondacks. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After a dry and very pleasant day today, southwest flow redevelops tomorrow as high pressure pushes off the East Coast. 850 hPa isotherms rise to +16C to +18C as subtle warm front lifts northeastward from the mid-Atlantic. Deep enough mixing as morning sun mixes with increasing afternoon clouds should support temperatures warming into the mid-80s to around 90 in valley areas. Latest probabilistic guidance shows a 30 to 60% chance that valley areas from the Greater Capital District into the Lake George/Saratoga Region will reach or exceed 90 degrees on Thursday. This combined with increasing humidity values gives a medium chance for heat index values to reach the low to mid 90s. Given the isolated nature of the heat index values around 95 degrees plus HeatRisk categories mainly only around Minor (level 1 of 4), heat advisories are unlikely. KEY MESSAGE 2... A very warm and increasing humid air mass will be in place both Thursday and Friday as weak boundaries and height falls approach ahead of a broad trough slowly shifting eastward through the Great Lakes. Despite the warm/humid air mass, latest medium range guidance continues to show overall low instability values both days mainly near or under 1000 J/kg likely due to weak lapse rates and rather warm temperatures aloft from weak upper level forcing. Deep layer shear values, however, are still sufficient to support some organized convection ranging 25-30kts tomorrow and increasing to 30-35kts on Friday as a cold front approaches and the trough moves overhead. Given a pressure trough approaching from Western NY/southern Canada and a few shortwaves tracking mainly near and south of I-90 on Thursday, shower and thunderstorm coverage looks isolated to scattered. Convection looks to initiate during the typical peak heating hours. Highest chances for showers/storms remain south of I-90 closer to the incoming shortwaves and in the western Adirondacks as the leading edge of the trough/stronger winds aloft slide eastward. The latest HREF shows a 10% chance for updraft helicity values to exceed 20m/s Thurs P.M, suggesting some stronger updraft potential. Latest SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook introduced a marginal risk for severe weather into the North Country and Western NY, grazing our western Adirondacks areas. Damaging winds are the primary hazard from any severe storms. Cloud coverage increases on Friday so temperatures should fall a few degrees but humidity remains elevated which will support instability values similar to Thursday. Overall forcing remains weak with broad troughing from the Great Lakes shifting overhead but with minimal height falls and a weak sfc cold front also approaching. The increased sfc forcing should lead to more widespread precipitation Friday afternoon into the evening from west to east. While deep layer shear increases, overall instability still looks low given warm temperatures aloft and weak lapse rates (especially if cloud coverage remains rather high) so severe weather potential again appears low. Latest SPC convective outlooks keep the Northeast just in a general thunder both days with WPC outlining far northern Herkimer/Hamilton County in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Thurs into Thurs night likely due to incoming cold front. Even still, we do not expect flooding issues. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals throughout this TAF period. Light and variable winds start off the period alongside clear skies, although some high clouds and fair weather cumulus are present at KGFL and KALB. Persistent clear skies and calm winds overnight will lead to the potential for some mist/fog formation at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF, which could bring temporary vis restrictions in the early morning hours of Thursday. Any mist/fog that does form should quickly dissipate by 12Z Thursday, giving way to widespread VFR conditions through the end of the period. Winds will slightly strengthen tomorrow morning and prevail out of the south to southwest, accompanied by some additional fair weather low-to- mid level cumulus and high clouds. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...23  260 FXUS63 KDMX 081732 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited patchy fog in low lying areas this morning. - Thunderstorm chances return into this afternoon through Thursday morning. A few storms may produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall. - Additional rainfall around 1 to 2 inches Wednesday through Thursday may slow or worsen ongoing improvement along area rivers. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A look at observations across Central Iowa early this morning indicate temperatures in the low 70s, with dewpoints near the same values in some isolated locations under clear skies and calm or very light winds, leading to some patchy fog. While patchy fog may continue to form mainly in low lying areas until sunrise or so, a look further north into Minnesota shows a line of showers and thunderstorms near a boundary that are moving east-southeast with time. The convective debris (cloud shield) is extending southward, which has already started to move into northern Iowa and will likely continue the descent south through the morning, keeping fog formation relatively minimal. The aforementioned boundary is ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough that is currently over the Dakotas, which will continue to push east throughout the day, while the boundary gradually shifts slowly southeastward today. CAM guidance generally indicates that these showers and storms will not arrive into northern Iowa until around 17-18z, though this may be too slow, given how convection is at least slightly further south at this time and may result in an earlier arrival closer to mid-morning. If the current storms in southern Iowa do die before reaching the northern parts of the forecast area, additional storm development is expected to occur near/along this sagging front, with higher confidence in showers and storms entering northern Iowa by early-mid afternoon. Ahead of this feature, conditions across Iowa will be on the hot and humid side, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s, which will allow for instability to increase into the afternoon and remain through the evening, with values around 1500-2000 J/kg and shear values around 30 knots that will be favorable for storms to grow upscale to at least some degree. Less favorable lapse rates below 7 C/km and high freezing level heights (15 kft) will likely lead to difficulty in large hail development, though the damaging wind potential is much more favorable as storms gradually congeal into lines. The risk for a few isolated tornadoes also remains, though low, with SRH values below 100 m2s2 and limited directional shear. The Slight Risk per SPC was expanded further south and west to highlight the increasing potential for severe weather in these areas. A look at the environment for heavy rain potential indicates high PWAT values near 2 inches overhead towards the evening and overnight as this boundary nears the I-80 corridor, paired with the aforementioned deep warm cloud depths. The risk would increase further for flooding if any particular areas sees multiple storms, which would increase concerns substantially for new and renewed rises of rivers and also the potential flash flooding risk, especially in areas that received the several inches of rain late last week. Through Thursday morning, the expectation per various models suggests that storms should generally have descended into south central to southern Iowa, with the lingering potential for severe weather as forcing for lift increases with some presence of the low level jet into west/southwest Iowa. Total rainfall amounts by Thursday morning are indicated around 1-2 inches, with isolated 3 inches possible over western into west central Iowa and lower values elsewhere across the state. As the boundary moves across southern Iowa, there remains a signal of a developing MCV that tracks eastward, which would bring a renewed potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Recent guidance though has this feature further south into Missouri but still near southern Iowa, so will need to keep an eye on this. As this system departs later in the day, additional convection may fire off again over southern Iowa where the front may linger yet, though severe weather potential by this point looks more limited. The overall evolution of storm placement and track into Thursday will be heavily dependent on how the activity plays out later today into tonight, so trends will be very important to monitor. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 One more shortwave passes through the 500 mb pattern on Friday, bringing more shower and storm chances to the state, albeit to a lower confidence given a lot of the moisture transport will be focused to the south of Iowa. After this Friday wave, 500 mb ridging fills in aloft, keeping conditions dry and warm for most of the state through the weekend. Highs by next week climb back into the upper 80s and potentially the low 90s. This high pressure looks to stick around for a few days, before eventually breaking down late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites at this issuance. However, as a surface boundary dives south into Iowa, increasing chances for showers and storms will exist. Showers and storms will bring categorical reductions and gusty and erratic outflow winds. Showers will taper off toward 12Z but behind the departing showers and storms, MVFR CIGS will impact KFOD, KMCW and KALO through the rest of the period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Rivers and streams in central Iowa continue to see increased flows as water continues to route through the system. Rivers within the Des Moines and Cedar River basins are at increased levels as water works it's way down stream, albeit all below flood stage and continuing to recede. Additional rainfall later this week, especially this evening through Friday, could lead to slower improvement and/or additional rises on area rivers, depending on what basins this rain affects. The heaviest rain looks like it will fall over north central Iowa, and should be in isolated pockets. However, should one of these isolated pockets fall in the wrong spots, conditions may be exacerbated. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bury LONG TERM...Dodson AVIATION...Vorst HYDROLOGY...Dodson  251 FXUS63 KLMK 081732 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 132 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds this afternoon and evening. * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Lifted a longer duration Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA in coordination with surrounding offices. The headline will start tomorrow afternoon and run through late Saturday evening. May have to adjust it some once each successive wave of rain become more clear, but for now it appears the entire area has a threat of flooding during this stretch. Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected from as early as Thursday afternoon until late Saturday evening. Several inches of rain are possible during this stretch, especially for areas that see repeated rounds. Several factors will contribute toward intense and efficient rainfall rates including moderate instability, high freezing levels, some training potential, and slow storm movement at times. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today, an upper low, embedded in a weak upper trough, is expected to get picked up by zonal flow. Stronger upper flow remains well north of the region which is causing the Lower Ohio Valley to lack meaningful wind energy, but we continue to have plenty of moisture with precipitable water values between 1.8-2" covering most of our CWA. Our top row of Indiana counties is in an area with slightly less moisture with PWATs between 1.6-1.8". This afternoon, diurnal warming will once again increase MLCAPE instability to between 1,300 to 1,800 J/kg which might be slightly less than what we saw yesterday, but we can expected scattered slow moving showers and thunderstorms to pose an isolated flooding threat for any area that gets stuck under a heavy downpour. Highs are expected to reach into the 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Tonight, we start to see the pattern change as what was the upper low begins to move east out of the area. This will begin the movement of the higher PWATs eastward. The high PWATs won't make it out of the area before Thursday morning, but any remaining showers and thunderstorms will begin dissipating as we lose diurnal heating. Patchy fog will once again be possible as temperatures fall. Lows are expected to drop to either side of 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday, as the remnants of the former upper low gets carried off to the east, PWATs try to drop below 1.5". The day might not be completely dry, but any diurnally driven chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely be more isolated than they have been. As a surface low begins approaching the Lower Ohio Valley from the west, an increasing pressure gradient and added WAA will help drive slightly warmer temperatures, closer to 90 along and west of Interstate 65. Thursday evening into the early night, there is a chance that a system will continue moving east from the Plains and make it's way into the Lower Ohio Valley. Even though shear over the region is low, higher instability values could help an already developed system to sustain itself. This could bring a threat of strong to severe winds before weakening as the system moves off to the east later in the night. Friday into the weekend, a messy west to east oriented boundary is expected to set up and drop south through the Ohio Valley. This is expected to bring a return of PWAT values over 2". There could be some marginal instability at times, but overall the severe threat looks fairly low at this point. The main concern is expected to be flooding. Unlike the earlier activity Thursday evening which is expected to be quick moving, some of the later activity along the boundary Friday and Saturday could possibly be slower moving and see multiple rounds of heavy showers causing increased chances for flash flooding. If we get breaks in rounds of rain, the region will see less issues than if areas don't get a break from continuous showers. Early next week, precipitation chances look to finally drop as moisture gets pushed south of the CWA. High pressure behind the front is expected to bring clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures in the low 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A low pressure system centered around the MO/IL/KY state line will meander eastward across the area through tonight, triggering scattered afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms. With storms ongoing, the highest chances at the airfields will be over the next 6 hours, which was captured in prob30 groups. However, there is a lower (20-30%) chance thunderstorms could linger for another couple hours beyond 00z. By around 09z Thursday morning, patchy fog and low stratus is forecast to develop over the area; tempo groups were added at the terminals where confidence was highest. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081- 082. IN...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ UPDATE...BJS SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...JRB  268 FXUS66 KLOX 081733 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1033 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...07/1125 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge over the region. Some relief from the heat is likely this weekend as the ridge breaks down and opens the door for possible monsoon showers or thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...08/935 AM. ***UPDATE*** Sunny skies and hot weather on tap today, with the Heat Advisories still in place for areas away of the coast. Another round of Sundowner winds are expected tonight across Southwest Santa Barbara County, with gusts up to 55 mph possible. Thus, a Wind Advisory will be issued by the afternoon for that area. Otherwise the short-term forecast is on track, and no changes were needed for the morning update in short-term forecast. ***From Previous Discussion*** An upper high will be centered over Srn CA today through Friday. Hgts will range from 594 to 596 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal. There will be onshore flow to the east strongest in the afternoon, but a few mb weaker than it was earlier this week. There will be a mb or two of offshore flow from the north in the mornings turning weakly onshore to the north in the afternoons. The marine layer has been smooshed down to about 800 ft by the hier than pressure aloft. The lack of an eddy means that there will only be minimal (if any) low clouds south of Pt Conception. The normal amount of onshore flow across the Central Coast will bring that area consistent night through morning low clouds today through Friday. Max temps will be the main concern through the short term. The hier than normal hgts, lack of a solid marine layer and only weak to moderate onshore flow in the afternoon will all add up to warmer than normal conditions. Look for 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming today under the subsidence from the upper high. This will bring vly highs of 92 to 103 degrees. Most max temps south of Pt Conception will be 4 to 8 degrees over normal. The Central Coast will only have near normal temps as the cooling sea breeze will greatly modify their temps. Most areas south of Pt Conception will see little change in temps on Thursday, but a weaker sea breeze will allow for 3 to 5 degrees of warming across the Central Coast. A 2 to 3 mb uptick in onshore flow on Friday will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys on Friday, but max temps will remain a few degrees over normals. A heat advisory is in effect for the LA vlys and interior cstl sections as well as all of the mtns and far interior vlys (please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all details). Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening and Thursday evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...08/226 AM. The upper high that will sit atop of Srn CA for the next three days will shift to the NE late Friday through Sunday. It will eventually reach the Dakotas. This movement will set up SE flow into Srn CA. At the sfc mdt to stg onshore flow will continue both to the N and E. The SE flow will bring in monsoon moisture and there will be partly to mostly cloudy skies through the period as plenty of mid and high level clouds stream into and over the area. The moisture will not be low enough to create a convective threat on Saturday. For Sunday to Tuesday, however, the monsoon moisture will lower enough to bring a 10-20 percent chc of showers/isolated TSTMs to portions of LA and (less of a chc) VTA counties. The best chc of showers will be over eastern LA county and esp the eastern San Gabriels. At the low levels, due to the increased onshore flow, night through morning low clouds and fog will affect most of csts and some portions of the lower vlys. Look for 3 to 6 degrees of cooling on Saturday which will bring mid 70s to lower 80s to the csts (lower 70s at the beaches) and mid 80s to mid 90s in the vlys. These max temps are close to seasonal normals. There will be little day to day chg in temps Sun and Mon. Tuesday may warm a few degrees as the clouds thin out and the onshore flow relaxes a bit. && .AVIATION...08/1711Z. At 1606z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1400 ft deep with a temperature of 22 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 25 percent chc of IFR conds redeveloping this evening around 5-7z and lasting through 16Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z. Low confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLAX, KPRB (40 percent chc of IFR cigs 10Z-17Z) and KLGB (40 percent chc of no cigs) KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of OVC008 conds 12Z-17Z). Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...08/239 AM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Thursday across the Outer Waters. There is a 50-70% chance of Gale Force winds this afternoon and evening and again Thursday. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid- week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend. SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel greatest during the afternoon and evening hours through at least Thursday. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoons/evenings through Thursday. For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through tonight. Otherwise, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/KL AVIATION...SF MARINE...RM/Lund/CC/SF SYNOPSIS...RM weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  333 FXUS62 KFFC 081735 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered (15-30%) showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening, increasing through the weekend. A few storms may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph. - Heat index values peak each afternoon between 95 and 105. Heat advisory for portions of Southeast GA Today. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across the area this morning. A slightly drier airmass has moved in across the region which should help keep diurnally driven convection to a minimum this afternoon. We are still under West to Southwesterly flow with temps again expected in the 90s so some isolated showers and thunderstorms area still expected this afternoon and evening. SPC has the entire state under a general thunderstorm risk today. Best timeframe for convective storms looks to be between 2-10PM. Moisture begins to slowly increase across the region Thu so will see another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms but becoming more scattered in coverage. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Heading into the latter part of the week and weekend, flow aloft becomes more broad while the Bermuda high continues to churn over the Atlantic. Southwest winds return, advecting moisture into the southeast once again. For this, shower and thunderstorm chances increase into the weekend. By the end of the weekend, flow aloft responds to a stout ridge building out west, turning upper winds N/NW. At the surface, guidance does indicate a weak frontal boundary that could cross the area toward the beginning of next week. If this materializes, a brief period of drier air and a small break from the heat. Long range models show northern Georgia highs in the mid to upper 80s by Sunday with low 90s elsewhere. Overall, diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances daily and some cooler temps possible over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Rinse and repeat forecast. VFR CU field cigs today should wane this evening. Expect a similar day again tomorrow with CU field developing by 16z with TS chances increasing tomorrow moreso than today. Added a prob30 for ATL, and will need one for other sites in future updates. Winds will remain west running 5 to 10 kts...with gusts and more variable direction in and around storms. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 95 74 94 74 / 0 0 20 20 Atlanta 93 75 93 75 / 10 0 20 10 Blairsville 85 66 84 66 / 20 10 40 20 Cartersville 92 72 91 73 / 10 0 30 20 Columbus 95 75 94 75 / 10 0 30 20 Gainesville 93 73 92 73 / 10 0 20 20 Macon 95 75 95 75 / 10 0 20 10 Rome 91 71 90 72 / 20 10 40 30 Peachtree City 92 73 92 73 / 10 0 30 10 Vidalia 98 78 99 78 / 20 0 10 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ074-084>086- 096>098-104>113. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ085-086-097- 098-106-108>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...30  295 FXUS65 KPUB 081734 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1134 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue Today through Friday, forming over the mountains each day and moving over the plains. - Flash flooding concerns persist for the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Severe weather will be possible over the eastern plains, especially on Thursday. - Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Weak zonal flow continues aloft, but an incoming surge of cooler air from the north will bring active weather to the region this afternoon and evening. Showers and storms will fire, mainly over our eastern mountains, by around 2PM, before activity continues off to the southeast through the remainder of the day. Some areas could see brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, warranting a Flash Flood Watch for the area around the Aspen Acres Fire, 12PM through 8PM. Showers will be a bit more plentiful than the last few days, with the chance for a few stronger to marginally severe storms closer to the KS border, where moisture and low-level forcing are both a bit more abundant. Meanwhile, temps during the day will be similar to yesterday, with 80s over the high valleys, and 90s to low- 100s over the eastern plains. Storms move off to the east-southeast overnight, with mild lows and good moisture recovery heading into Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A flattening upper ridge remains in place overhead on Thursday, with a shortwave passing through the region during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to fire as the wave passes and pushes a weak front down, some of which will likely be strong to severe. Latest SPC guidance shows a Slight Risk for severe weather over most of our eastern plains. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, with 80s to mid-90s for most areas. For Friday, easterly surface winds over the plains, combined with a passing wave to our northeast, will bring plenty of moisture to the eastern plains, along with sufficient lift for another round of afternoon convection. Temperatures will be similar to Thursday, if a few degrees cooler over the eastern plains. Looking into this weekend and early next week, a broad area of high pressure is still expected to build in from the southwest. This will lead to progressively hotter and drier conditions. Winds appear light enough, for now, to avoid any major fire weather concerns, but the hope is for more moisture to move in as the high pressure continues shifting east into the second half of the month. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Isolated to scattered convection will fire over the mts by midday then track east, so maintained PROB30 wording from roughly 20z-02z for all three sites for -TSRA and VRB gusts 35-40 kts. Further east, storms may become strong to severe, producing gusts up to 60 mph and large hail. Light diurnal sfc winds are forecast by around midnight and for the remainder of the forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO/KT LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MOORE  332 FXUS66 KOTX 081735 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1035 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical Fire Weather: Red Flag Warnings in effect Wednesday due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. - Thunderstorm Potential: Slight (5 to 10 percent) chance for high- based showers and thunderstorms across Eastern WA and North ID early Wednesday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Critical fire weather conditions will continue for Central Washington and expand across Eastern WA this afternoon and evening as a dry cold front tracks through the region. The front will bring a low (5 to 10 percent) chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms over Eastern WA and North ID early Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will decrease slightly but remain breezy Thursday and Friday, keeping fire weather conditions elevated through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday: A strong low off the Canadian coast will move inland and usher in a strong dry cold front through the forecast area later this morning. Winds will increase across much of central Washington, with widespread wind gusts 20 to 30 mph expected and wind gusts 35 to 45 mph expected along the Cascade gaps. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to be widespread today. Current models show an 8 to 10 mb pressure gradient between SEA and COE. These higher wind gusts could result in blowing objects alongside challenging driving for high profile vehicles. As such, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for a significant portion of central and eastern Washington from 11 AM to 10 PM tonight. Areas included in the Red Flag Warning are the the Okanogan Valley, Cascade foothills, Waterville Plateau, Western Columbia Basin, Spokane area, Colville Reservation, and Northeast Washington foothills area. Ahead of the front, a weak vorticity maximum will move through alongside mid level moisture, resulting in a small (5 to 10 percent chance) but impactful chance for elevated convection across eastern Washington later this morning. A couple hundred J/kg of CAPE with steep lower level lapse rates and an inverted V sounding will support a low chance for dry thunderstorms, with very little precipitation expected. While chances are low for any thunderstorm development, this is a high impact scenario when combined with already critical fire weather conditions later in the day, as any lightning strikes will pose a fire hazard. Any convection that forms will be monitored extremely closely this morning. Thursday through Sunday: Zonal flow following the frontal passage will keep winds elevated on Thursday, particularly across the Cascade gaps. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, roughly 50% of clusters show another trough moving through the area, which would result in continued fire weather concerns through the first part of the weekend. The other 50% of clusters show the trough staying just offshore enough to not impact winds as intensely. Conditions will continue to be warm and dry with temperatures in the mid to high 80s. Monday through Tuesday: Clusters then begin favoring a broad ridge setting up and strengthening over much of the Western US at the beginning of next work week. This will result in warming temperatures, with long-term models projecting highs to return to the 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Alongside clusters showing good agreement in this ridge, the CPC's 8-14 day temperature outlook shows a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. Additionally, the CPC's probabilistic 8-14 day outlook hazards page shows a 20-40% chance for extreme heat in southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. /AS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: A cold front moving through the Inland Northwest will bring dry and gusty winds across the region today. Flight conditions are expected to remain VFR today. Winds have begun to increase with southwesterly to westerly gusts generally between 20 to 25 knots. The windiest location will be in the lee of the Cascades, particularly at KEAT where gusts 28 to 32 knots are expected this afternoon into the early evening. Winds will remain breezy at KEAT through the night with winds at KMWH weakening around 06Z. Winds will relax across other TAF sites around 01-03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 89 57 85 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 87 57 84 56 85 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 84 51 81 50 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 93 60 90 59 93 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 90 53 86 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 87 56 84 55 85 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 84 56 81 54 84 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 91 54 90 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 87 61 88 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 92 57 90 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)- Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)- Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)- Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$  401 FXUS61 KAKQ 081737 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 137 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the 18z TAF && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. 2) Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. 3) Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. An upper level trough is located in vicinity of the New England coast early this morning. Meanwhile, a shortwave feature is tracking across the Mid-Atlantic coast on the southern periphery of the upper trough. At the surface, a stationary to slow moving cold front lingers over southern VA and coastal NE NC. An area of low-level streamline convergence is located in vicinity of the Northern Neck, and this is coincident with an axis of PW values of 2.3-2.4" and modest surface based instability. An area of slow moving to nearly stationary heavy rain and embedded tstms has lingered over the Northern Neck and there have been some reports of flooding early this morning. The latest trends from the HRRR depict that this area of streamline convergence lingers in vicinity of the western shore of the Ches. Bay through the morning. Therefore, some localized flooding from excessive rainfall will be possible, but also highly localized, and could creep into Hampton Roads. Otherwise, the best chances of showers and aftn tstms gradually shifts to the SW today as the cold front moves through the region. Coverage of showers/tstms will be less today compared to the prior two days. Hence the flash flood threat will be more limited and localized this afternoon. A few stronger tstm cores are possible, and this could produce some localized damaging wind gusts across interior southern VA and NE NC. Not as hot today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s/around 80F at the coast, to the mid 80s inland. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. The mid/upper level flow becomes more progressive Thursday and Friday. The 500mb flow increases to 30-35kt Thursday afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave trough, with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave trough. With strengthening mid level flow and strong surface heating strong to locally severe tstms are possible each afternoon. The question on Friday is coverage given more drier downslope flow. Additionally, the 00z/08 HREF has a decent signal for heavy rain from NE of theRIC metro to the lower MD Eastern Shore (and points N). High temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. Dewpoints should drop enough each afternoon to keep heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, but readings up to ~105F are possible in NE NC (especially along the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound). KEY MESSAGE 3...Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Chances of afternoon/evening showers/tstms continues Saturday as a cold front slowly sags through the region. Otherwise, trending drier Sunday into early next week as high pressure returns in the wake of the cold front. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday, before a warming trend commences Tuesday into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 136 PM EDT Wednesday... A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGS have been noted across the area this afternoon. SBY remains VFR while the rest of the terminals remain MVFR and low level clouds continue to clear. Latest satellite imagery shows the clouds clearing across the area and VFR CIGS should return to all terminals between 20-22z. In addition to the low CIGS, isolated showers and thunderstorms have initiated across portions of the Piedmont and NE NC. The thunderstorm near ECG ~1730z has started to weaken but could remain in the vicinity of the terminal for the next hour. Otherwise the showers should remain clear of the VA terminals especially ORF and PHF through the afternoon/evening. However, a shower/thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of RIC. Winds this afternoon remain out of the NE and E ~5-10kt. By tonight, winds become variable and a warm front lifts north. As this front lifts north a period of MVFR and IFR CIGS cannot be ruled out across NC and VA. These CIGS should clear by the mid to late morning of Thursday. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms return Thursday, with the probability 20% or less by Friday (better chances N/NW of an RIC-SBY line), then 40-60% by Saturday, and less than 30% Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected this week. NE 10-15 kt winds are expected through most of today. - The risk of thunderstorms is lower today but increases again Thursday and Friday. Generally benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this morning are E-NE 10-15 kt on the north side of a slow moving backdoor cold front. Similar winds continue through today, diminishing slightly and turning to the S-SE this evening into tonight as the front lifts back N. Seas will generally be around 3 ft during this time and around 4 ft 20+ nm offshore. S-SW sub-SCA flow is expected Thursday and Friday with 2-3 ft seas. Another front is forecast to cross the waters Saturday. Winds swing around to the N/NW Saturday and then NE Sunday. While daily chances for storms are anticipated through the week, the chance today is comparatively lower than the past few days. Still, showers this morning could pose an isolated waterspout threat in the western Chesapeake Bay. Chances for more widespread storms, some strong to severe, increase Thursday and Friday. SMWs will be issued as necessary. A moderate rip current risk is forecast today due to nearshore 3 ft waves and choppy surf. A low risk returns for the rest of the week. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed today for some additional calibration. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HET AVIATION...AJZ/HET MARINE...SW EQUIPMENT...  390 FXUS64 KEPZ 081737 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening but thunderstorm chances increase over the weekend and into early next week, especially over the lowlands. - Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-102; except highs Thursday and Friday from 101 to 106. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 WV shows a moisture gradient across the area with the Gila region having highest moisture and southeast the least. Upper high just off the coast of SoCal with ridge axis extending across the CWA. Looks like a repeat of yesterday with most storms over the NW with some isolated storms on the Sacs. Limited instability but dry low levels would support some modest outflows onto the lowlands. May see some late evening storms move from the north and into Otero county but it looks like those will have a hard time sustaining too far south. Not much change in the pattern for Thu either, but there will be a small increase in low level moisture instability which would support some stronger outflows and some isolated lowland storms going into the evening hours. High temperatures will be the hottest during these days as well with the lowlands in the 100-105 range. May see a couple places above 105 in the lower RGV but for now will hold off on any Heat Advisories. Fri/Sat will see the upper high build over the Four Corners region and setup a return to NE flow across the area. Moisture remains marginal with surface dew points mainly in the 40s, but stronger flow aloft favoring pushing outflows onto the lowlands from NE to SW will help to trigger storms areawide. NBM PoPs were basically non-existent outside of the mountains east of the RGV and increased both days to isolated/low chance. Temperatures will start a gradual cool down here with the increased moisture. Going into early next week, the upper high will move further N and a little east onto the Northern Plains. This puts the area in an easterly flow with moisture continuing to increase over the region. Looking at trajectories though, the area will not be in a direct Gulf tap with the best moisture south of us in Mexico streaming up into southern AZ. This could easily change though depending on the exact placement of the high. No matter what, we will have "cooler" temperatures which will be closer to normal which is in the lower to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250 through most of the period. Typical afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms forming over the higher elevations, especially the Gila region again with just a few storms possibly moving onto the lowlands due to outflows. Did not include any mention of thunder except a VCTS around 00Z at KTCS where it looks like the best chances will be, if not rain, at least a stronger outflow. Winds generally southeast AOB 12KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The next couple of days will be the biggest fire concern with high temperatures over the lowlands into the 100-105 range and the mountains mainly in the 90s. RH's will fall into the teens with some 20s in the higher elevations. Winds will remain light though as high pressure dominates and just some gusty winds with thunderstorm outflows. The upper high starts to shift northeast this weekend into early next week which will bring in a more favorable monsoonal flow with easterly winds and daily storm chances areawide. Temperatures will be fall off to near normal by early next week andmin RH's into the 20s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 102 78 104 / 0 0 20 0 Sierra Blanca 71 96 71 98 / 0 0 10 0 Las Cruces 70 100 72 102 / 10 0 20 0 Alamogordo 73 100 76 101 / 20 20 20 40 Cloudcroft 54 76 57 78 / 30 40 40 60 Truth or Consequences 70 100 74 102 / 10 10 20 20 Silver City 66 94 67 94 / 20 50 40 40 Deming 69 101 71 103 / 0 10 30 20 Lordsburg 70 100 70 100 / 10 20 30 20 West El Paso Metro 75 101 78 103 / 0 0 20 0 Dell City 69 99 72 101 / 0 10 20 20 Fort Hancock 72 102 77 104 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 67 94 71 95 / 0 10 20 20 Fabens 73 102 76 104 / 0 0 20 10 Santa Teresa 72 100 74 102 / 0 0 20 0 White Sands HQ 74 101 79 103 / 10 10 20 10 Jornada Range 68 99 74 102 / 10 10 20 0 Hatch 71 103 73 105 / 10 0 20 10 Columbus 73 104 76 104 / 0 0 20 0 Orogrande 70 101 73 100 / 0 20 20 30 Mayhill 59 89 61 89 / 30 60 50 50 Mescalero 56 88 60 90 / 30 40 30 50 Timberon 55 84 58 86 / 20 30 30 40 Winston 60 91 62 93 / 20 40 40 20 Hillsboro 68 97 70 99 / 10 30 30 20 Spaceport 67 100 70 102 / 10 10 20 10 Lake Roberts 55 94 60 95 / 20 50 50 40 Hurley 67 97 67 98 / 20 50 30 30 Cliff 61 99 67 98 / 20 50 40 20 Mule Creek 58 96 64 97 / 20 30 30 30 Faywood 66 95 67 97 / 20 30 30 30 Animas 68 100 70 100 / 10 20 40 10 Hachita 69 100 69 99 / 10 20 30 10 Antelope Wells 70 99 69 97 / 10 20 40 20 Cloverdale 66 93 65 91 / 0 30 60 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz  411 FXUS65 KSLC 081737 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High based convection will again develop this afternoon, primarily over northern portions of the forecast area. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong outflow winds to 60 mph. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. Critical fire weather conditions will continue Thursday over southern Utah. - A notable heat wave will develop over the weekend with high temperatures challenging daily and monthly records Saturday and Sunday. Most valleys and some mountain valleys have a greater than 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red (major) range, bringing an increased chance of heat related illnesses. - Confidence is increasing the monsoonal moisture will move into the area by the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure is centered roughly near the Utah/Colorado border late this morning, putting Utah and southwest Wyoning under a breezy west to southwest flow aloft. High based moisture remains in place over northern Utah, while drier air advects in from the southwest. High temperatures will stay on the mild side with maxes running up to 5F above seasonal normals. A weak shortwave is expected to move through the ridge and across northern portions of the forecast area late this afternoon into the evening, with the feature looking a bit better defined than the one that moved through yesterday. Overall, seeing less in the way of shear compared to yesterday, but a bit more CAPE, up to 500 J/kg most likely. Thus, already starting to see showers and thunderstorms developing, currently focused over northwest Utah, with areal coverage and extent both increase late this afternoon into the evening. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong and gusty outflow winds, with the possibility of at least isolated severe gusts later today. The ridge axis is expected to redevelop off the southern California coast on Thursday, bringing a more westerly component to the flow and allowing additional drier air to make its way into the area, particularly over southern Utah. With some moisture continuing to linger and another shortwave on track to move through during the afternoon, anticipate the development of at least a few showers and thunderstorms, though coverage will likely be a bit less than what is anticipated for today. As the airmass continues to dry and strong high pressure builds substantially over the western United States, confidence is high in temperatures across Utah and southwest Wyoming shooting up to record challenging levels for Saturday and Sunday. Guidance continues to show the center of the ridge over Utah on Saturday and just east of the area on Sunday. Guidance has, if anything, gone up with regard to the forecast compared to yesterday, with the majority of valleys and mountain valleys showing at least a 60 percent chance of red (major) HeatRisk for both Saturday and Sunday. It seems all but certain that daily temperature records will be broken, with some monthly and (in the case of the Cache Valley) all time records forecast to be broken. Given this and many valley low temperatures staying in the 70s overnight, this will predictably bring a quite increased chance of heat related illnesses over the weekend. Given the high confidence in the forecast, have gone ahead and issued an Extreme Heat Watch for all of those areas with at least a 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red, which includes just about all valleys (lower Washington county excluded) and many mountain valleys. As the forecast comes in clearer focus over thenext couple of days, upcoming shifts will make decisions about advisories and warnings. With southerly flow expected to increase over the area for the early and middle part of the upcoming week, models continue to indicate a high likelihood of monsoonal moisture returning to the area, bringing temperatures down and rain chances up. While this would decrease the fire danger, it brings an increased potential for flash flooding, particularly for southern Utah. && .AVIATION, Issued 612 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... KSLC...VFR conditions can be expected through the day, with southeast winds this morning switching to northwest around 18-19z. There is a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms impacting the terminal after 20Z this afternoon. Northerly winds will likely continue through 06-07z this evening, with a 30% chance of gusts over 26kt/30mph between 01-03z due to outflows. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the day, with generally diurnal winds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening mainly across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible around KBCE this afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms will bring periods of erratic and gusty winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...The airmass will trend drier today under a west- southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts west off the northern Baja coast. Afternoon relative humidities will drop below 15% across most of central and southern Utah, down to the single digits in some valley locales. Meanwhile, across northern Utah, lingering moisture will maintain isolated to scattered mainly high-based showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry lightning and gusty outflow winds being the main threat. While chances of showers and thunderstorms across the central mountains and adjacent valleys are nonzero, they are expected to be much more isolated there today. Meanwhile, enhanced winds combined with the low humidities will once again drive critical fire weather conditions across portions of central and southern Utah today. The drying trend will continue across the area through the rest of the week, with humidities continuing to trend downward across the area and overnight recoveries become increasingly poor especially across central and southern Utah. Convection will become increasingly isolated during this time as well. Breezy conditions are expected to persist into Thursday and perhaps Friday as relative humidities continue to decrease. For now, have extended the Red Flag Warning for southern Utah into Thursday, and will keep an eye on trends for Friday. As high pressure builds back into the area for the weekend into the beginning of next week, dry and very hot conditions can be expected. Temperatures are very likely to reach at least 100 degrees in most valleys over the weekend, while relative humidities in the single digits will be common. However, the pattern still looks favorable for moisture to increase into the area beginning early next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ101>108-114>116-118>122-128>131. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-497. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ493. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ495-498. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ496. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Cheng FIRE WEATHER...Cheng/Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  467 FXUS61 KCLE 081739 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 139 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Marginal Risk for severe weather has been added across Northwest Ohio and Lake Erie for late Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Tranquil conditions expected until later Thursday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times late Thursday through Friday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for a few storms to produce damaging wind gusts over northwestern portions of the area Thursday evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with some storms late Thursday into Friday. 3) A period of drier weather with limited precipitation chances is expected this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Brief ridging surface and aloft today into early Thursday. For today, will be on the lookout for patchy fog first thing this morning. A mainly dry and somewhat warm day is expected today with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s (slightly cooler in the far northeast, perhaps touching 90 in Toledo). Can't rule out a stray shower or storm over the hills of Northwest PA this afternoon, but that should be it. Quiet weather persists tonight as any showers/storms with a weak Ohio Valley shortwave stay to our south. Lows will mainly settle in the 60s with perhaps just a bit of patchy fog in the usual inland valleys overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled weather returns late Thursday into Friday as a cold front gradually approaches and crosses the area. A good portion of Thursday will remain dry. A shortwave tracking through the upper Ohio Valley will spark scattered showers/storms that may affect far eastern Ohio and inland northwestern PA during the afternoon. Otherwise, convection will likely develop closer to the approaching cold front from lower MI into northern IN during peak heating hours on Thursday, with a shortwave moving across the southern Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening encouraging this development. This activity will likely spread towards Northwest OH and Lake Erie late Thursday afternoon or evening. It is somewhat uncertain if this activity can progress east-southeast across more of the area later Thursday evening as it begins outrunning the front, though the southern reaches of lift associated with the aforementioned shortwave and a modest but moist west-southwesterly low-level jet may allow activity to maintain across the area Thursday evening into Thursday night. The front itself slowly crosses Lake Erie late Thursday night or early Friday, and then gradually sags across the area through Friday afternoon or early evening before clearing. There are some hints that convection may re-develop along the front over or near Lake Erie late Thursday night or early Friday morning. This is not as confident, but either way there will likely be a blossoming of showers and storms along and south of the front during the day Friday as we see heating of the moist pre-frontal airmass. Shower/storm chances will decrease from north to south Friday afternoon and evening as the front clears the area. In terms of severe weather potential, it is overall on the lower side with this system. The SPC has included Northwest OH and Lake Erie in a Day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated damaging wind gusts late Thursday. 20-25 knots of deep-layer shear and a strongly heated and mixed low-level airmass could support loose convective organization and cold pool development, which can support the marginal damaging wind risk. Otherwise, the environment features marginal and skinny instability profiles and overall limited wind shear, which argues against a more significant severe weather threat. The environment does become conducive to efficient rain rates with any convection late Thursday into Friday as precipitable water values climb to near 1.80", with warm mid-levels supporting skinnier instability profiles. A modest west-southwest low-level jet feeding into the sagging west-east oriented cold front could also support a little bit of training. While coverage and placement of convection becomes more uncertain Thursday night into Friday, will need to keep in mind the potential for an isolated heavy rain and flash flooding risk. The WPC does have a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding Thursday into Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3... The late week front may still be close enough by to maintain a low risk for showers or a storm in our far southern counties on Saturday. Otherwise, high pressure builds into the southern Great Lakes through the weekend, providing for a more prolonged period of tranquil conditions. Strong ridging is expected to build over the Plains late this weekend into early next week. Northwest flow aloft on the eastern side of this ridge will become established across the area, though dry conditions associated with continued surface high pressure should limit the potential for convection to spill in from the northwest through Monday and Tuesday. A warming trend is expected early next week as said ridge tries expanding to the east, but there is uncertainty over how quickly troughing over New England gets kicked out which will affect our temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Patchy MVFR ceilings are being observed across the Mahoning Valley this afternoon as diurnal cu have developed. These heights should continue to lift this afternoon, leaving all terminals in VFR conditions for much of the period. The exception to this will be KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG which may once again see a mix of fog/low stratus that impacts terminals between 09Z and sunrise. With moisture gradually diminishing, confidence is not as high as prior days so opted to handle the potential with a TEMPO. Light and variable winds are expected to continue through Thursday morning before increasing to 5-10 knots from the west-southwest by late morning. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Quiet marine conditions are expected to persist across Lake Erie through the weekend. High pressure today and tomorrow will keep winds from the southwest at 5-10 knots and waves in the nearshore below 2 feet. Thursday night, a cold front will sag south of the lake marking a shift to west-northwest winds. There is a potential for scattered thunderstorms during the evening hours which may locally enhance winds and waves, but widespread conditions should remain calm. The cold front continues to push south on Friday as high pressure returns from the north over the lake. Winds will gradually shift to northeasterly at 10-15 knots on Saturday and Sunday afternoons with waves in the western basin building to 1-3 feet. Overnight winds will remain calm. There are no anticipated marine headlines at this time. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...04 MARINE...04  438 FXUS65 KTFX 081738 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1138 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail. - A few showers and thunderstorms in Southwest Montana Thursday and Friday afternoon. - Trending hotter toward the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday looking hottest. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 552 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026/ Meteorological Overview: Upper level troughing well off to the northwest over northern BC will progress eastward through the day today, eventually emerging into northwestern AB by the evening. Flow aloft across the region will largely be zonal, but be ever so slightly cyclonic in nature given the disturbance off to the northwest. This weakly cyclonic nature of the flow will combine with sufficient daytime heating to result in at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region by mid-afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings suggest wind will be the primary concern with the strongest thunderstorms, but increasing shear through the afternoon combine with respectable instability will yield a large hail threat as well. This activity exits eastward late evening or early overnight. The main upper level disturbance passes eastward into Thursday, though some lingering instability across SW MT will yield a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon. Thereafter an upper level ridge begins to build in across the Central CONUS and interior west, which will allow for temperatures to climb heading into the weekend. While the hottest conditions look to remain off to the east and southeast, afternoon temperatures rising well into the 90s in many areas this weekend will pose impacts to those with outdoor plans. Plan for plenty of hydration and rest breaks if planning to be outside this weekend. Heading into next week the ridge looks to slide eastward ever so slightly, which looks to open the door for some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. -AM Uncertainty: The main source of uncertainty today looks to be just how strong forcing will be for thunderstorm activity. As of now the main wave with the upper level disturbance looks to remain well north of the region. Forecast soundings show a small amount of convective inhibition, which would not require too much forcing to result in convective initiation. Should this forcing be slightly stronger, shower and thunderstorm activity would become much more widespread this afternoon and evening and vice versa. Looking ahead toward the weekend, the main source of uncertainty will be associated with just how hot it gets across the region. As of now there is roughly a 50% chance for afternoon highs to reach or exceed 100F on Sunday over the plains. -AM && .AVIATION... 08/18Z TAF Period Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move from west to east across Southwest through North Central Montana between 18z this afternoon and 00-06z this evening, with the greatest concentration of showers and storms occurring along and north of the US Hwy 12 corridor. VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the duration of the 0818/0918 TAF period with the exception of beneath showers/storms when brief MVFR/low-VFR conditions will occur. Additionally, patchy fog may develop near the KHVR terminal during between 10-14z Thursday, but confidence in this occurring is low given that only a few Hi-Res members support this scenario. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 57 88 56 93 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 55 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 57 87 56 90 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 53 87 54 89 / 20 10 100 WYS 46 83 46 84 / 20 20 30 0 DLN 52 85 52 89 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 57 87 56 92 / 60 0 0 0 LWT 54 83 53 89 / 40 10 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  436 FXUS66 KMFR 081738 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1038 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... VFR conditions are expected throughout the valid TAF period with the one caveat along/near the coast. There will be a deck of low clouds over KOTH; however, at this time these should remain FEW/SCT which would not lead to any categorical changes. Will need to watch conditions overnight in case the marine layer is thick enough to produce a BKN/OVC layer. Otherwise, expecting diurnal breezes today/tonight. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026/ Updated AVIATION Discussion... AVIATION...08/12Z TAFs...Marine stratus will maintain IFR/LIFR conditions along the coast from Cape Blanco northward and Gold Beach southward through most of the morning. Some some gradual improvement to a scattered layer is expected again later this morning, but will return to similar areas after 03z this evening. Farther inland, the marine stratus could bring some MVFR ceilings into portions of the Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg, around sunrise, but will quickly burn off by late morning. All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period with the typical increase in afternoon breezes this afternoon and evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026/ KEY POINTS... * Typical summer weather for the remainder of the week: seasonable temperatures and humidities, gusty afternoon winds. * Pattern amplifies Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-30 mph) Friday- Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring heightened fire weather concerns (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * Thunderstorm pattern early next week. Best chances east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. DISCUSSION...Another quiet summer morning underway today. The marine layer blankets the coast from Gold Beach southward as well as the Coquille Basin and Coastal Ranges. Skies are clear everywhere else. The marine layer will continue nudging inland this morning, possibly making it to Roseburg around sunrise, but morning clouds will give way to sunshine by the afternoon hours. Westerly flow will prevail today into Thursday under a mostly zonal flow pattern with flat high pressure to the south and a broad trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more stable air mass with thunderstorm potential remaining well east of the area. There will likely be some cumulus buildups today east of the Cascades and across northern California, and a stray shower (5% chance) can't be ruled out. A dry front will pass through the region today. This will bring another day of enhanced afternoon breezes as well as a general cooling trend in afternoon temperatures today that will persist into the weekend. Instead of temperatures being 8 to 10 degrees above normal like recent days, high temperatures through the weekend will hover within a few degrees of normal, equating to low 90s West/upper 80s East. With this general cool down, we'll see an uptick in afternoon humidities, so despite the enhanced afternoon winds, fire weather concerns will be somewhat mitigated by the slightly cooler temperatures. The pattern transitions on Friday with high pressure to the south moving eastward into the Great Basin region, then amplifying on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward Friday into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly again and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tighter gradients. This pattern will bring a round of strong, gusty winds to the region Friday and Saturday when gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 30 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions could be possible east of the Cascades Friday and Saturday, most widespread on Saturday. Low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, and this will ease winds some compared to Saturday, but conditions will still be quite breezy. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough. Daytime humidities will trend slightly upward and the flow will turn more southerly heading into the early part of next week. This pattern will bear watching for thunderstorm potential as south to southwesterly flow could push some monsoonal moisture into the region. While this is still 5 to 7 days out and plenty of time for details to change between now and then, it currently looks like we'll skate by on Sunday without any convective activity. Monday through Wednesday, however, there could be enough moisture and instability in the region for thunderstorm activity. Given that the region is on the western periphery of that strong high pressure, it currently looks like the best chances would be across eastern areas, though it's worth noting that current guidance shows enough moisture across the West Side for thunderstorm development potentially on Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates as models hone in on additional details. MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Wednesday, July 8, 2026...Moderate north winds continue south of Cape Blanco, which will maintain steep seas through this morning. The thermal trough strengthens later this morning, resulting in increasing north winds and very steep seas developing south of Gold Beach. Small Craft Advisory winds and seas will spread north to Cape Arago. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but could strengthen again late weekend with gusty north winds and steep seas. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  525 FXUS63 KFSD 081740 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated showers and storms continue through mid morning. Although severe risk is low, an isolated wind gust as high as 60 mph is possible, mainly along US Highway 14 through 4 AM. - Scattered storms return this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are possible along/southeast of a Lake Andes to Sioux Falls to Jeffers line. Main threats are strong winds to 65 mph and hail to quarter size. - High temperatures rise into the 90s toward 100 degrees this weekend and into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A muggy and warm start to this Wednesday with temperatures/dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds are elevated enough to preclude any fog development. Elevated storms are expanding in coverage along the strengthening LLJ. Main severe risk through the next couple of hours remains along the US Hwy 14 corridor where ample DCAPE exists. Main threat would be a wind gust to 60 mph through 4 AM CDT. Biggest question for later today is exactly where the boundary ends up, as it will aid in for our later day storm development. Although we'll likely have some cloud cover around, we should recover back into the upper 80s and lower 90s south of I-90. With dew points in the lower 70s, should have modest instability as the cap erodes through the afternoon. Greatest severe risk is across northeastern NE and northwestern IA, where a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been introduced. Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk remains along and south from a Lake Andes to Sioux Falls to Jeffers line. Main threats are going to be wind gusts to 65 mph as LL lapse rates and DCAPE increase and quarter sized hail. Potential limiting factor for hail is the 0-6km shear values around 20 kts, although these increase to near 30 kts by the evening. Isolated activity may linger in our southern forecast area through the early overnight hours. Otherwise, mostly dry weather is expected with slightly cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Quiet conditions persist this afternoon with high temperatures warming to the mid to upper 80s and low 90s. Latest satellite and surface obs show a , outflow boundary from morning storms that is set up along from Huron South Dakota to De Smet South Dakota, to Canby Minnesota. The main effective boundary is also visible on satellite well northwest of the area. These boundaries will serve as the areas for new thunderstorms to develop on later this afternoon as a mid level wave interacts with the boundaries. Large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging winds to 70 mph will be the main hazards. While the tornado threat will be mostly north and west of the area, a local/isolated tornado threat is possible along the boundary as the mean wind is oriented parallel to it, allowing for a longer resonance time for a storm to ingest the boundary driven helicity. These storms look to develop later this afternoon around 5 pm or later as the mid level wave catches up to the boundary. A second round of showers and some storms will develop across the Black Hills this afternoon and push eastwards. These storms will cross the state of South Dakota and get into locations east river this evening. The environment does not look all that favorable as less moisture (and associated instability) will be available in this area. At the same time, vertical shear will also be weaker in this same area as well. While the strengthening low level jet could keep elevated showers and isolated storms going, any storm that persists into the forecast area is not expected to be strong to severe Any chance for a strong to severe storm will come to an end by 3 am or a little earlier. Though these showers may persist through the forecast area overnight. Latest guidance shows these showers continuing to persist throughout the day on Wednesday. This will bring some cloud cover to the area which will keep temperatures just a little bit cooler. As the same time, the previously mentioned boundary will be sliding southwards through the area. This boundary looks to slide just far enough to the south that additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms could develop on it. Latest hi-res guidance shows these storms developing across parts of northwest Iowa tomorrow afternoon before exiting the area in the evening. While this looks to be the consensus amongst the guidance, some uncertainty regarding how far south the boundary gets remains. If the boundary gets hung up, then severe storm chances could increase during the daylight hours tomorrow. As of now, the latest REFS shows a 20-30% chance for reflectivity values to exceed 40 dBZ. Thus, think the most likely scenario for tomorrow is for elevated showers and weak storms push through the majority of the area. The exception will be portions of northwest Iowa, generally near and south/southeast of highway-60 where a pre-frontal trough where enough surface heating could result in a few severe storms during the afternoon timeframe. Will keep an eye on this potential. Any chance for strong to severe storms will come to an end during the evening hours as the surface boundary and pre-frontal trough push southeast of the area. Thursday looks to be a pleasant Summer day as high temperatures warm to the 80s and winds stay light out of the north/northeast. High temperatures look to warm to 80s while humidity values remain modest. There looks to be enough instability to develop a few showers to an isolated thunderstorm. Any storm that does develop is not expected to be strong to severe as vertical shear profiles will be weak. As of now, only have a 20-40% chance for these showers to weak storms to develop. Chances for rain will be trending downwards into the evening hours as the boundary layer stabilizes. Friday will see continued near seasonable temperatures with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Highs will begin to warm as an upper level ridge begins to build on Saturday. Highs will warm a bit more to the mid 80s to mid 90s Saturday afternoon. The ridge looks to build up over the Rocky Mountains on Sunday before quickly translating to over the Northern Plains by early next week. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance places the peak of the ridge up to 597 to 600 dam. This will result in much hotter temperatures returning to the area with high temperatures into the 90s to potentially the low 100s. The ensembles support this as they show a broad 40-100% chance for high temperatures to exceed 90F and a 40-70% chance for highs to break 100F. The highest probabilities lie across central South Dakota. With the center of the ridge places directly over the Northern Plains, the upper level jet and associated gradients will be north of the area. This looks to leave mostly dry and hot conditions Sunday through Tuesday at this time. Humid conditions will accompany the heat so heat headlines will be possible. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Latest satellite shows a mix of mid/upper level clouds and low level stratus across the area this afternoon. The low level stratus is sitting at MVFR/IFR levels with no obstruction to visibility. This stratus has been persistent across KHON and continues to push southeast just behind an advancing cold front. Should see this stratus make it into KFSD just after the period begins. This front will also be responsible for new thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening, primarily across parts of northwest Iowa and adjacent areas. As of now, the new storms may develop just east of both KFSD and KSUX. Have left only PROB30 groups in their TAFs but this may change as confidence in storm location increases. The storms will push out of the area this evening as winds turn northerly behind the front. Additional MVFR/IFR stratus looks to develop late tonight along and east of I-29. This new stratus looks to continue into the morning hours before dissipating to end the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...Meyers  545 FXUS63 KGRR 081741 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 141 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers and Storms This Evening Through Thursday - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered Showers and Storms This Evening Through Thursday Overall a decent signal for a few rounds of scattered thunderstorms between late this evening and late Thursday, but fairly unimpressive environment and dynamics that will keep details of predictability low (when and where exactly it will storm) low and also cap potential at just a marginal threat of wind/hail. But the confidence is fair via the HREF for three main windows for storms: late evening weakening storms crossing the lake toward areas north and west of Grand Rapids, then some elevated Thu morning thunderstorms in west-central and central Michigan, then more surface-based storms Thu afternoon east of US-131. Also early this afternoon, can't rule out a weakening thunderstorm surviving into Ludington. Much about this setup is on the positive but weak side for supporting storms: the sagging cold front, the upper-level jet dynamics, the moistening low-levels and 850 mb moisture transport, the cooling mid-upper levels that will yield about 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE (perhaps more Thu afternoon), and about 20 knots of deep- layer shear. Despite the midlevelds also expected to be rather moist, the well mixed lower atmosphere both this evening and Thu afternoon should support about 500 J/kg of DCAPE per the HRRR, allowing for a chance for a coalesced cold pool to sweep into West Michigan this evening with 30-40 mph gusts, then isolated near- severe wind gusts in mid/southern Michigan Thu afternoon. - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up PoPs are about 10 percent through the weekend as upper level ridging and surface high pressure is most favored over Lower Michigan. A heat wave is expected to develop this weekend to early next week from the Intermountain West into the Northern Plains, with 500 mb heights potentially reaching 600 dekameters over the Dakotas on Monday per the ECE. This plume of 21-24 C air at 850 mb may advect into Michigan from the west-northwest, making highs in the 90s possible Mon to Tue/Wed. The ECE and CMC are the most aggressive with the heat, and GEFS a little less but still quite warm. Dew points may be in the mid 60s this time, less humid than last week's heat wave. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The ongoing cluster of storms over Central Lake Michigan is forecast to move just south of MKG. Otherwise, thunderstorms from Wisconsin look to arrive after 02z across Central Michigan. Impacts to GRR/MKG remain low in confidence so will maintain existing PROB30s. Scattered showers and storms then continue overnight mainly north of GRR/MKG/LAN with greater coverage possible later Thursday morning. There's a signal for a line of storms to develop near JXN/LAN after 15z, which given lwo confidence have included PROB30s for now. Any storms may contain brief increases in wind and wind shifts. Otherwise expect mainly west or southwest winds aob 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds over the water will mostly be from the south-southwest 5 to 15 knots today, though weakening showers or thunderstorms crossing the lake this afternoon and/or evening may cause shifting winds to west/northwest and gusts 20-30 knots or perhaps stronger. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ050-056-057- 064-065-071. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...CAS  552 FXUS63 KLBF 081741 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1241 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across the western Sandhills, southwest and central Nebraska, with large hail and damaging winds possible. - Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon/evening, favoring areas west of Highway 83, with damaging winds and isolated severe hail the main concerns. - Much warmer temperatures arrive this weekend ahead of anomalous heat setting in for early next week where daily highs in the upper 90s to low 100s appear probable for Sunday through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances late this afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough moving across the Dakotas into MN will push a cold front south through western NE with a northeast to east wind in the afternoon. Highs not as hot, from the mid 80s north central to the low 90s southwest. A few showers and storms are possible in the northeast this morning into this afternoon and possibly further south into Custer County this afternoon. This is in closer proximity to the surface front. In the higher terrain to our west, storms are expected to develop by mid afternoon in an easterly upslope environment and move east into the western Sandhills late afternoon and evening. Storms coverage looks more scattered by this evening across the western Sandhills, southwest and central NE. SBCAPEs by late afternoon will be highest near 2500 J/kg across the southeast, and 1000-2000 across the west. Deep layer shear will be around 35 to 40 kts. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, with isolated large hail also possible. A Slight Risk for severe storms south of a line from Hay Springs through Bartlett. A secondary threat of locally heavy rainfall, where storms are slow moving or train across the same areas. Could see an MCS develop overnight, mainly across south central or southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorm activity will diminish after midnight as weak surface high pressure settles over the area and winds become light and variable. Lows slightly cooler from upper 50s northwest Sandhills to near 65 southeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday/Thursday Night...Modest high pressure will glance the area early in the day with return southeasterly flow becoming established by midday. How potential convection across Kansas impedes moisture advection into the area remains unclear but overall thinking is adequate recovery should be anticipated locally. Beneath persistent anomalous warmth aloft, temperatures should manage to seasonable levels. This paints widespread 80s across the area with a select few approaching 90F. As the influence of a modest EML lingers over the area, moderate instability should develop favoring the Panhandle region where low-level moisture should be most impressive. MLCAPE values are progged to climb to around 1500-2000 j/kg within nominal deep layer shear as 0-6km BWD values reach 25-35 knots which will support organized multicell to isolated supercell development. Convection should develop off the higher terrain during peak heating and track east within the zonal steering flow aloft. Storm motions should be typical of early July, relatively slow. This should delay most activity arriving into our western zones until the early evening. With loss of daytime heating, boundary layer stabilization will hinder eastward progression of activity and MLCIN increases quickly. With lack of any appreciable supporting theta-e advection off the surface, convection should wane quickly bymid/late evening. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for areas west of a Merriman to Paxton line with roughly a 100 mile Marginal Risk buffer to the east. This aligns with the thinking that convection will wane quickly between Highway 61 and 83 corridors and casts doubt on meaningful rainfall chances east of the latter. Main severe threats will consist of damaging wind gusts though isolated severe hail will be possible west of Highway 61. Parent shortwave trough will cross late in the evening with h5 low forming over central and eastern Nebraska. Backside convergence may support persistent light PoPs overnight but NBM probabilities paint low potential for beneficial rainfall. Will keep Slight Chance and Chance PoPs for now, generally limited to 40% or less. Friday and beyond...heights begin to build by later in the day Friday but timing of upper-level low and its departure is low confidence at this time. Model blend maintains low-end PoPs through the bulk of the day which is somewhat supported by various deterministic solutions so see little reason to stray from these significantly. Cooler temperatures appear possible but variations in NWP output limits confidence in this. Attention quickly turns to the looming heat wave arriving this weekend and persisting into next week. Upper ridge will quickly amplify by early weekend with 595+ dam h5 heights overspreading Wyoming and much of western Nebraska by Sunday. This aligns with NAEFS highlighting h2 and h5 heights surpassing model climatologies for the time of year. Similarly, temperatures aloft will be approaching climatological maximums, particularly at h5 and h7. The warmer temperatures aloft combined with the high pressure dome will quell any and all rainfall potential in the extended period. As it stands now, expansive middle to upper 90s are in the forecast for early next week with a few locations approaching triple digits. Forecast highs at North Platte and Valentine in particular would fall in the upper range of each site's respective climatology with values at Valentine likely to exceed the 90th percentile in climatology each day Sunday through Wednesday. As impressive as this warmth appears likely to be, we should fall short of record highs. Nevertheless, given the anticipated magnitude of heat over consecutive days with little relief overnight (heat indices struggling to fall be 70F at times), concern is high for vulnerable folks to prolonged heat. Will need to closely monitor day-to-day trends in forecast highs as headlines may be necessary to account for this. Anomalous upper ridging appears likely to continue over the Central Plains through much of next week with ridge breakdown appearing likely by Thursday. This may break the heat and allow appreciable rainfall chances to return though precise details are uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will largely be expected through the forecast period. Cloud cover will clear out in exchange for generally clear skies early Wednesday afternoon. North northeast winds will remain fairly light, 5 - 10 kts through the day and into the evening. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms should develop out of the west and introduce thicker mid to high level clouds. KLBF could some impacts but confidence remains low enough that only a PROB30 has been added to cover this. Guidance suggest that northern Nebraska could see some IFR conditions early Thursday morning, but should stay north of KLBF. By mid Thursday morning winds should shift to more east southeasterly at 5 - 10 kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...MRS  537 FXUS63 KSGF 081741 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1241 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less than 20% chance for isolated thunderstorms in south central Missouri this afternoon. Gusty winds to 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms. Most areas stay dry. - Rain chances increase to 40-70% Thursday night through Saturday. Slight risk for severe storms Thursday night. Marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall Thursday through the weekend. - Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 It's a clear and calm night this morning with temperatures in the low 70s. The surface low pressure system is moving east into the Ohio Valley and taking its cloud cover with it. Clear nighttime skies and mild temperatures with little to no wind will allow for the development of some patchy fog in south central Missouri during the early morning hours. Winds will slowly become southerly today as weak warm air advection returns. As the low to the east continues to produce its diurnal convection, it is possible some of the precipitation will make it into the southeastern reaches of the CWA this afternoon. This potential is low, and PoPs remain largely 20% or less. Otherwise, we'll enjoy mostly sunny skies with fair weather Cu today, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and light southwest winds. Lows will be a few degrees warmer tonight with the return to southerly flow, in the upper 60s our east to the mid 70s in the west. Slightly stronger winds overnight should preclude any fog risk tonight into tomorrow morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The breaking news of the forecast tonight is that central Missouri has been included in an upgrade to a Slight risk (2/5) for severe storms on Thursday by the SPC. As we transition into an upper level pattern characterized by zonal-ish flow with many embedded shortwaves and pockets of energy, a string of active weather begins to set up. Weakening showers and storms move in from the west early Thursday morning while a more robust system is expected to follow late Thursday night, which is responsible for the Slight risk. Short- term models and CAMs have come into better agreement on this solution over the last few runs. However, there still remains some uncertainty regarding how warm/unstable the airmass is able to become after morning precipitation moves through central Missouri. If cloud cover clears quickly and destabilization is maximized, the primary severe hazard would be damaging winds with a linear storm mode. The warmest days of the period will be Thursday and Friday, when some areas may see a heat index of 100 degrees or more. This signal returns again early to mid next week. Chances for thunderstorms continue for the next several days as southerly flow continues, shortwave energy traverses the high pressure to our southwest, and the ingredients come together each afternoon. Some days will see higher chances and better coverage than others; Friday and Saturday, PoPs are currently up to 60-70% in some areas while Sunday into early next week have a closer to 30-40% chance to see afternoon thunderstorms(as the high itself moves closer and suppresses convective activity). There is some risk for excessive rainfall for part or all of the area all the way through at least Sunday Temperatures stay pretty steady after Friday, with southerly flow and precipitation working to cancel out their affects. Highs will generally land in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current VFR conditions at 18Z consist of southwesterly 5-10 kt winds and a sparse cu field at 4-5 kft. This will continue through 00-02Z. At that time, a warm front will move through, shifting the light winds to more southerly, with the cu field dissipating with sunset. Main aviation concern comes after 10Z. Guidance suggests a decaying thunderstorm complex could move in from the west or northwest between 10-13Z. There is a 30-50% chance of this at JLN, and a 20-40% chance of it reaching SGF and JLN. There is lingering uncertainty on if scattered remnant showers remain over the TAF sites through the remainder of the period. Have placed a PROB30 at this timeframe to capture the uncertainty. Otherwise, winds will shift to southwesterly at 8-12 kts after 12Z with multiple layers of cloud debris from the decaying complex. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Price  553 FXUS65 KGJT 081741 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1141 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue today, favoring the terrain. - Chances for wetting rains remain low. Gusty outflow winds and dry lightning pose threats for new/existing wildfires. - Localized critical fire weather conditions emerge Thursday for southeast UT and southwest CO. - Afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal are forecast this weekend, with triple digits possible in most desert valley areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 LINGERING MOISTURE: The area of high pressure centered over the Four Corners will shift west today, cutting off the Western Slope from the little surge of moisture we've been under the last few days. Drier air begins to advect in from the west, although enough moisture is expected to linger in the mid-levels to keep the chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This activity will favor the higher terrain along the Divide, as well as the higher terrain of the eastern Uintas. Surface levels remain dry, limiting the potential for any wetting rain. A few hundredths to maybe a tenth of an inch are possible. The primary threats with any storms will be outflow winds capable of producing 35-45 mph gusts, and frequent lightning. Some of this moisture could linger into Thursday, mainly along the Northern Divide mountains, with similar impacts. FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL: Winds are expected to be relatively light through the next seven days, outside of those enhanced by nearby convection. However, an area of elevated winds is expected around the Four Corners, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible. As a result, localized critical fire weather conditions will be possible in this area. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN: As high pressure builds back into the Southwest this weekend, hotter and drier conditions will return for the Western Slope. Daily humidity minimums will be in the single digits to low teens, and temperatures will jump to 5-15 degrees above normal. Triple digit highs are likely for the lower elevations starting on Saturday and carrying into next week. For Grand Junction, it looks as though we'll get close to the all-time record high of 107 on Sunday, as the current forecast has a high of 106. Luckily, winds will remain on the lighter side, limiting fire weather concerns through the period. Even still, be aware of potential spark sources if out recreating this weekend. Additionally, be mindful if spending time outdoors in heat. Be sure to stay hydrated, wear loose and light-colored clothing, and limit activity during the hottest part of the day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1138 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Lingering moisture will allow for widely scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening hours. The main threat will continue to be gusty outflow winds in the 35 to 50 mph range if the storm is near an airfield. Due to the limited coverage confidence is low in timing and placement but did place PROB30 in some of the TAFs. Otherwise winds will be fairly light under prevailing VFR conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Isolated dry thunderstorm concerns continue today and possibly into Thursday before storm potential almost entirely diminishes. Surface relative humidity values remain low, below 20%, across the lower elevations. Greater surface relative humidity values in the higher terrain, especially across the highest elevations of the San Juan Mountains, should allow for more rain to reach ground. Chances of wetting rains remain low, under 10%, but not zero. A few storms could be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall through the evening which, if they track over an active fire or burn scar, could prompt debris flow concerns. The probability of this remains low, but non-negligible. Dry thunderstorms still remain a concern through the evening hours, bringing about a risk of new lightning ignitions and gusty outflow winds which could impact new and existing wildfires. As hotter and drier conditions settle in Friday and into the weekend, fire conditions could become exacerbated. Lighter winds are expected through the weekend, however pockets of 25-35 mph gusts are possible across southwest Colorado and Southeast Utah. Coverage of these gustier winds will be limited, however, keeping critical fire weather conditions localized. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...BGB/TGJT  612 FXUS63 KBIS 081743 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures remain today, followed by a strong warming trend through the weekend. - Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. - Very hot this weekend and early next week, with daily high temperatures and maximum heat indices around 95 to 105. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Clusters of light rain showers continue across the northwest and north central. Otherwise the going forecast looks good. UPDATE Issued at 935 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Continued broad, low PoPs across parts of the north and central to account for widely scattered showers this morning. Otherwise, going forecast looks good for today. UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated showers continue over portions of northwest and central ND early this morning. Made some minor adjustments to pops to account for this. Stratus/fog has not been as forecast as was feared, but low ceilings and patchy fog do remain in a few areas this morning. Overall few changes needed for the early morning update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A broad quasi-zonal upper level flow will continue over the region through the remainder of the workweek, followed by significant upper level ridging over a large portion of the western and central Conus. This could bring a significant prolonged heatwave to western and central ND this weekend into early next week. Currently, the latest satellite imagery show a number of waves moving through the broad upper level flow. Latest radar shows an area of isolated showers situated over northwest ND. Patches of low stratus/fog have been noted under breaks of high level cirrus, but as of yet nothing widespread. As we head into the early morning hours guidance suggests, and it seems reasonable, given the low T/Td spreads we will see an increase in stratus and fog. Guidance does favor western and southern portions of the forecast area. For today, forecast soundings suggest instability will remain weak this morning. However with an approaching shortwave currently indicated over eastern Montana, there may be enough forcing to keep a mention of showers in the forecast. Soundings dry out this afternoon and mostly dry conditions are expected. Afternoon convection off the higher terrain in Wyoming and southeast Montana should remain south and east of the forecast area later today, but an evening thunderstorm can not be ruled out in the far southwest. Another wave tracking along the International Border may fire convection over central Montana, and if it holds together could move into far western ND towards daybreak Thursday. The severe threat by this time would be low. On Thursday, the aforementioned wave tracks across the state and a surface trough lingers over the area. It will become very unstable over western ND Thursday afternoon with RAP forecast MLCAPE values around 3000 J/Kg. Bulk shear is marginal, ranging from 25 to 35 knots. Forcing for ascent will be modest with only weak impulses moving through a slowly building ridge. If there is enough forcing to overcome some low level capping, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across most of the forecast area Thursday. Shear vectors are not completely perpendicular to the surface boundary but enough so that a supercell thunderstorm can't be ruled out. The main threats Thursday afternoon and evening would be large hail to the size of golf balls and 60 mph winds. After Thursday, attention shifts to the potential for a prolonged heat threat through the weekend and into early next week. Friday will see daytime highs climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s, but the most impactful heat will be over the weekend and early next week. Daytime highs of 90 to 100 on Saturday, and 95 to 105 Sunday may necessitate the need for a long term Heat Hazard, especially since overnight low temperatures remain at or above the 70 degree mark. At this time, Sunday looks to be the most oppressive day with heat indices above 100 degrees across most of the forecast area, and up to 108 degrees in a few areas. However if you consider the HeatRisk and WBGT, a case could be made for a long term hazard encompassing Saturday through Monday, given the warm overnight lows. We still have a while to ponder, but if current forecast trends hold, it will definitely be a very hot weekend. With a lot of outdoor events going on, we will definitely be increasing our heat related messaging. The oppressive heat should limit thunderstorm activity over the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR with a few areas in the south central of BKN MVFR CIGs this afternoon. Winds will be southeasterly 5 to 10kts, calming after sunset. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Smith  641 FXUS61 KBGM 081744 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 144 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant change with the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity are expected across Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania today and tomorrow. 2) Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the region Thursday and Friday before quiet weather and high pressure build back in for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level low has shifted east with weak high pressure building in behind it. This will allow skies to gradually clear with winds becoming light and variable. Morning patchy fog is expected to burn off soon after sunrise. A cool start to the day will quickly give way to warming afternoon temperatures as abundant sunshine and the strong July sun angle help temperatures climb into the 80s across much of the region. Overall, a quiet and pleasant day is in store. Attention then turns to a weak shortwave approaching later this evening, bringing a small chance for showers across portions of the Southern Tier, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected elsewhere. KEY MESSAGE 2... Southwesterly flow develops Thursday as 850 mb temperatures rise into the +16 to +18 degrees C range. Surface temperatures should climb well into the 80s, with a few lower 90s not out of the question. Heat indices in the 90 to 95 degree range will be possible, especially across the Lake Ontario Plain and interior valleys. As temperatures and dew points increase, so too will the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A southern wave moving east across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic during the early afternoon will trigger isolated showers and storms from the Southern Tier of NY south into northeast PA. Later in the day a northern wave approaching from the northwest will generate a broader area if convection that progresses northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours. Model guidance continues to indicate favorable instability, with ML CAPE values around 800-1000 J/Kg and steep low level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest the cap may weaken enough for storm development, though shear remains on the weaker side and may limit sustained or mature convection. The early afternoon activity over northeast PA should remain relatively weak, with greater concern for strong to locally severe storms accompanying the incoming front from the northwest. Western and central NY will have more time to erode the inversion and tap into slightly stronger deep layer shear. Sounding profiles also support a localized flash flood threat, with long skinny CAPE, PWATS of 1.5 to 2 inches, and warm cloud depths around 11-12 kft. This threat appears greatest from Thursday afternoon through the overnight period, particularly across northeast PA. Temperatures Friday will be slightly cooler, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s, though dew points remain elevated in the 60s and lower 70s. A lingering boundary may serve as a focus for additional convection Friday afternoon and evening. The threat for stronger storms Friday into Friday night will need to be monitored as deep layer shear increases in response to a modest jet streak aloft and embedded shortwave. By Friday night a longwave trough will move through the region, ushering in a cooler and less humid air mass for the weekend with highs mainly in the 70s and lower 80s. Rain chances will also diminish considerably as a drier pattern settles over the area. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. A weak disturbance moves through tonight, mainly affecting the Southern Tier andsouth with some isolated rain showers and potentially brief MVFR cigs. ELM could fog if the clouds dont stick around after the disturbance passes but only have an IFR tempo right now due to lower confidence. SYR and RME will see mainly clear skies and VFR through tomorrow evening. Outlook: Thursday Afternoon...Mainly VFR. Friday...Cold front could moves in, with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Saturday into Monday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJT/ES AVIATION...AJG  635 FXUS66 KSGX 081743 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1043 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will continue the warming today with widespread moderate or greater HeatRisk for inland areas into Friday with widespread major HeatRisk for the lower deserts through Thursday. For Sunday into next week, monsoonal moisture in southeast flow aloft will increase the humidity and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms with the greater chances over the mountains each afternoon and early evening. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... High pressure aloft will continue to strengthen across the area today with forecast 500 mb heights later today above the 95th percentile, but not quite record setting for the date. High pressure will then slowly weaken through Thursday night before beginning to restrengthen on Friday. Widespread moderate or greater HeatRisk will continue for the Inland Empire, mountain elevations below 6000 feet, and the deserts through Friday with widespread major HeatRisk for the lower deserts through Thursday. The Excessive Heat Warning for the lower deserts and Heat Advisories for the Inland Empire and mountain elevations below 6000 feet through Thursday may need to be extended through Friday. High temperatures for today will warm and few to around 5 degrees for inland areas with not much change on Thursday. High temperatures on Friday will only cool slightly. High temperatures for today and Thursday will range from near average at the coast to 5 to 10 degrees above average for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys. High temperatures for today and Thursday will range from the 70s near the coast to the mid 90s to 105 for the Inland Empire with 112 to 118 for the lower deserts. While these high temperatures are expected to mostly remain below daily high temperature records, there could be a few record warm low temperatures in the mountains. The marine layer will continue to become slightly shallower with night and morning coastal low clouds spreading into the far western valleys at times. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)... The center of high pressure aloft across southern California into Arizona on Friday will strengthen and move toward the northeast over the weekend. The flow aloft across the area will become southeasterly over the weekend into early next week with monsoonal moisture increasing for Sunday into early next week. Over the past couple of days, ECMWF ensemble precipitable water values have trended higher while the spread between wetter and drier ensemble members has narrowed. There will be a slight chance for showers on Sunday with greater chances for shower and thunderstorms over the mountains on Monday afternoon. Chances for afternoon and early evening thunderstorms for the mountains could continue through at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... 081730Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds have cleared inland locations but are hanging onto the OC coast and a few areas of the SD coast. These low clouds based around 1,400ft MSL should clear at least OC in the next hour with a 30-40% chance of it sticking along areas of the SD coast through 20Z. VFR conditions will prevail through 02-04Z when low clouds with bases 700-1,100ft MSL will start developing along SD coast. Low clouds will increase in coverage and push north and inland up to 20 miles 07-09Z. Clouds will begin to clear inland locations after 15Z, clearing most coastal sites by 18Z. .Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Martin AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane  887 FXUS63 KDLH 081747 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rainfall is possible over inland northwest to north- central Wisconsin this morning. Moderate to pockets of heavy rainfall falling on top of previously heavy rainfall persists for the Brainerd Lakes to Pine County region. - A Flood Watch is in effect through late this morning from the Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin ending at Washburn County where the risk of flooding is greatest. - Minimal precipitation in the extended forecast with potentially impressive heat this weekend into next week. - The risk of heat-related illness will increase from Saturday into Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Heavy rainfall is ongoing across the southern Brainerd Lakes to inland northwest Wisconsin region early this morning. Observed rainfall of 1 to 2.5 inches has been observed so far in this area, although highest right around the Hinckley part of western Pine County where discrete strong thunderstorms moved overheard a few hours ago. An additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches still possible into the early morning daylight hours today for this entire area though of the Northland. The Flood Watch was expanded earlier into the Burnett and Washburn Counties as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could bring minor flooding to these counties into the commute hours today. As the heaviest rainfall clears east of the forecast area later this morning, persistent rain showers and capped at mid-levels isolated thunderstorms are possible for far eastern Minnesota, the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. A notable instability gradient sits just south of the region with southern Price County on the far northern edge of it. If, a big if, this gradient can shift a bit further northward then a few strong thunderstorms producing small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph are possible for Price County in north-central Wisconsin. But right now the confidence is fairly low for any strong to severe storms is fairly low. Guidance continues to trend warmer for the late weekend to early week heat. HeatRisk brings in a general 30-70% chance of Major heat impacts (highest in north-central MN and lowest in inland northwest WI and Arrowhead), but there is high confidence for at least areawide Moderate heat impacts Sunday. High temperatures could in the upper-80s to low-90s are forecast. This heat lasts into early next week then. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Main stories for this forecast package involve the potential for heavy rain tonight and early Wednesday then the warm-up this weekend into next week which will raise the potential for heat- related illness. Synopsis... As of 19Z this afternoon a nearly stationary front stretched from near Watertown, SD to near St. Cloud, MN to near Bayfield, WI. Regional radar mosaic revealed an area of light rain over eastern North Dakota with showers over a portion of northwest Minnesota. A compact MCS was noted over west-central Minnesota while an MCV from early morning convection was centered over far northeast South Dakota within an area of stratiform rain. The latest SPC RAP analysis revealed MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg over east-central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota with a gradient northward along and just north of the front. This afternoon through Wednesday morning... Expect the MCS to propagate eastward along the instability gradient through late afternoon. It will likely strengthen as greater instability builds ahead and to the south of the complex. Meanwhile the trailing MCV will create a localized enhancement in convergence and lift in its wake. The showers over North Dakota and northwest Minnesota are forecastto spread eastward into northern Minnesota by this evening in response to a lobe of 500 mb vorticity over North Dakota this afternoon which will propagate eastward through tonight. The main focus for heavy rainfall and a small risk of severe storms will be found along and north of the front. This evening, an 850 mb low-level jet is forecast to develop and create enhanced low-level convergence along and north of the front. Instability will become somewhat limited overnight with MUCAPE values of 500-2000 J/kg straddling the front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in north-central South Dakota this afternoon and propagate eastward with time tonight. Meanwhile additional storms are forecast to develop over central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. The strongest moisture advection will be over the Brainerd Lakes by 08.06Z and will propagate farther eastward overnight. A reservoir of PWAT values of 2 to 2.5 inches is forecast to build over central Minnesota in response to southerly theta-e advection through late evening. Freezing heights will be around 13kft which combined with limited instability and 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots should produce low-centroid storms and efficient precipitation production. Several CAMs reveal a training patter of storms tonight over central Minnesota which raises the potential for widespread 1-3 inch rainfall amounts. Isolated 2-4 inch amounts are certainly possible. With all these factors in mind along the the recent rainfall over the Northland, we decided to issue a Flood Watch from the Brainerd Lakes east into Pine County. That area is the most likely to see excessive rainfall. Flash flood guidance over the watch area ranges from 1.5 to 2.25 inches in 1 hour and 1.8-2.5 inches in 3 hours. Those precipitation rates are well within reach given this setup. The severe weather risk is more limited. The modest instability and mid-level winds will limit the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greater potential for severe storms is to the southwest of my area. The existence of the MCS/MCV combination has the potential to displace the strongest convergence south of the Northland for tonight, which would shift the area of heavy rain potential out of our area. These trends will need to be monitored through this evening. Showers and storms will persist overnight and slowly taper off from west to east Wednesday morning. The risk of flash flooding decreases rapidly as storms weaken. Wednesday afternoon and evening... The front is expected to loiter over the southern third of Minnesota into central Wisconsin Wednesday. Another round of showers and storms is forecast to our south which may propagate eastward into the Hayward and Phillips areas during the late afternoon and evening hours. Depending on how far east the heavy rain tonight occurs, there may be a chance of flash flooding over those areas. Temperature will generally trend cooler for Wednesday due in part to lingering cloud cover. Northeast winds will allow a weak lake breeze to propagate well inland keeping temps cooler. Look for high temperatures in the low 80s north and south to the low to upper 70s from the Brainerd Lakes into NW WI and shoreline areas of the Arrowhead. Thursday through early next week... We will enter a period of quieter weather for the remainder of this week. Widespread rain chances dwindle as zonal flow develops over the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Upper- level ridging will build Sunday into early next week which will allow strong southwesterly theta-e advection to bring a return of upper 80s to low 90s temperatures. Dewpoints will increase as well. The risk of heat-related illness will trend higher starting as early as Saturday and persisting through Wednesday at least. Several rounds of heatheadlines may be needed. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are seen around the Northland early this afternoon as a frontal boundary remains draped across the region. Isolated to scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms will be possible along and south of this front through this afternoon, mainly across interior northwest Wisconsin. Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR later this afternoon. Heading into tonight, fog is expected to develop and affect all terminals except for INL. VSBYs are expected to fall to IFR or lower at DLH, HIB, and HYR with MVFR ceilings at BRD. IFR stratus will also be possible at HYR. Conditions will then rapidly improve to VFR after daybreak. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Light winds and minimal wave activity is likely for the next few days outside of any thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms move over the lake this morning and cannot be entirely ruled out along the shorelines either this afternoon. Dense marine fog may form tonight for the Twin Ports to South Shore. Advisories may be needed in time for this possible dense fog tonight. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of interior northwest Wisconsin this afternoon, mainly Price County and adjacent areas. Additional rainfall up to 0.10-0.15" will be possible in this area. Dry conditions will prevail elsewhere. RH values are still forecast to vary widely across the region, with readings of 30-45% along and north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead with values above 50% elsewhere. Winds will be variable this afternoon at 5 to 10 mph. A dry and warming pattern is expected to setup for the remainder of the week and into the weekend outside of very low shower and thunderstorm chances in far northern areas Friday afternoon into Friday night. Highs will reach into the 80s Thursday- Saturday with 90s in the mix by Sunday. Thursday looks to be the driest day in terms of RH with values of 25-35% along and north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead with values of 35 to 45% elsewhere. Increasing humidity heading into the weekend will keep minimum values at around 35% or above. Winds will remain under 15 mph into Saturday with some gusts to around 20 mph by Sunday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...NLy DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...BJH MARINE...NLy FIRE WEATHER...BJH  899 FXUS64 KLIX 081747 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Through the end of the workweek, very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. - Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle. - Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Generally, upper level conditions are reflective of the typical summertime pattern with high pressure stretching from the Atlantic Bermuda high westward to the desert southwest. There are some weaknesses in the northcentral Gulf coast that allow shallow intrusions of lower pressure and weak troughing. At the surface, the Bermuda high extends into the north central Gulf providing some light southerly flow around its western periphery. Typical weather pattern is daytime highs in the low to mid 90s and apparent temperatures just below the 108 degree theshold for heat headlines, overnight lows hang in the upper 70s giving slight opportunities for cooling, and convection is governed by sea breeze boundaries and remnant boundaries after intial convection collapses. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 That weak trough described in the short term conditions will move from the Ohio Valley Saturday, into our area by Monday and into the eastern Gulf Tuesday. A weak surface boundary may also be associated with the trough. Precipitable water values are expected to be near or above the 90th percentile Saturday night through Monday (2.10 inches) and possibly topping out around 2.3 inches on Monday before dropping to near the mean (1.7 inches) by late Tuesday. This should enhance (scattered to numerous) convective coverage during convectively favored times Sunday and Monday...peak heating hours over land zones, late night and morning in marine areas. Of course, with precipitable water values that high, there will be a threat of at least localized heavy rainfall, but pinpointing exactly where that will occur 5 or 6 days from now is problematical. As the column dries out somewhat late on Tuesday, we'll probably see less areal coverage of convection, and a lesser threat of heavy rainfall, but low level lapse rates steepen and DCAPE values increase to over 1000 j/kg, so the wind threat will increase. Still looks to be rather warm on Sunday, as storms may not develop until mid-afternoon, with highs probably 90 to 95. Areal coverage of storms increases Monday and likely develops a little earlier, so slightly lower high temperatures should be expected. Guidance from the Tuesday global operational models was within a degree or two of each other, so there's not likely to be much of a shift in the NBM numbers. Won't entirely rule out the need for a Heat Advisory Sunday, but at this point, the numbers say it's borderline at best. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions predominate and will continue through the period, with the exception that scattered convection is possible. Conditions will deteriorate in the vicinity of any storms that do develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds shift to due south then to the southeast bythe weekend but remain around 10kt. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, mostly during the morning hours. A few may be strong producing erratic gusty winds and/or waterspouts, with locally hazardous seas. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...DS MARINE...DS  962 FXUS63 KARX 081750 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of thunderstorms are expected today, one north of I-94 this morning and a second across much of the area this afternoon and evening. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall with modest probabilities (30-50%) for over 1 inch of rainfall and localized spots seeing upwards of 2 to 4 inches. - Some storms this afternoon and evening may be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. - Seasonable temperatures are expected throughout much of the week with highs in the low to mid 80s before warming through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today - Thursday: Storms Expected, Some Strong to Severe with the Potential for Heavy Rainfall this Afternoon and Evening Storms ongoing early this morning across portions of central MN will shift into north-central WI throughout the early morning hours as suggested throughout much of the CAMs as a shortwave impulse situated in western MN pushes eastward. Noting some gravity wave signatures in the convection over western MN that might try to propagate slightly more southward of where the CAMs currently suggest, overall not confident in how this would manifest but could see some strong wind gusts with any organized convection north of I-94 early this morning, especially considering the respectable 0-3km shear profiles in the recent RAP. Otherwise, as this early morning convection in north-central WI departs, the key question is exactly where the resultant boundary left behind is located to initiate afternoon convection. Run-to-run consistency in many of the CAMs has not been overly consistent with a variety of storm modes and locations being present keeping forecast confidence for the afternoon and evening somewhat low. That being said, the environment depicted in the RAP suggests fairly weak deep-layer shear profiles with relatively skinny instability. As a result, would expect any supercellular structures that do develop to struggle as updraft/downdraft separation would not be maintained for very long. Consequently, would expect storms to trend multi-cellular or linear quickly depending on what forcing is present. Overall, the hail threat with these storms appears somewhat limited due to the deep warm cloud depths, lack of robust deep layer shear and skinny instability profiles. However, certainly could see some damaging wind gusts with significant precipitation loading in storms as well as with any linear modes. In addition to the severe potential, the parameter space for heavy rainfall is respectable with precipitable waters of around 1.75" and warm cloud depths to around 3.5-4km. Consequently, the 00z HREF has medium probabilities (30-50%) for rainfall amounts over 1" across much of the local area. However, cannot rule out some localized rainfall amounts in the 2-4" range as the 00z HREF has some amounts in this range in the higher percentile members. The key point of uncertainty that remains is again related to where storms may frequent the same locations as much of the CAMs have conflicting opinions on where convection may trek earlier in the afternoon. That being said, there has been some increasing signal during the late afternoon and evening for a more pronounced frontal passage to interact with convection in the local area and force it upscale, most notably seen in the recent HRRR and NAM Nest runs. This would likely coincide with a shortwave, currently situated over South Dakota, pushing through the area during the evening and overnight. In this scenario, more organization of cold pools could lead to a damaging wind risk as well.Additional storms cannot be ruled out overnight and into the early morning hours with any differential heating boundaries, but given the degree of surface stability overnight and into the early morning hours on Thursday, the severe potential with these should be minimal. Friday - Early Next Week: Warmer Temperatures Return Over the weekend, mid to upper level ridging begins to build across the United States which is noted in most/all of the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Heights associated with this ridge are expected to be fairly impressive, reaching 594-600dam at 500hPa, which the 07.00z NAEFS highlights as near or exceeding the maximum heights within climatology. Surface temperatures trend warmer this weekend into next week in response to these rising heights. There's still quite a bit of spread within the various ensemble suites regarding what the temperatures will ultimately be, but interquartile spreads suggest highs in the upper 80s are favored, but possibly reach into the low 90s. Dewpoint temperatures also increase during this period as the 07.07z NBM suggests a 30-60% probability to exceed 70 degrees highest over northeast Iowa, translating to apparent temperatures in the 90s. Will need to continue monitoring trends, but a return to warm and muggy conditions looks to be on the horizon && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Primarily VFR conditions continue through the next few hours with light southwest winds ahead of expected showers and storms that move northwest to southeast across the region this afternoon into tonight, generally in the 20z to 09z timeframe. That said, there are some storms have already developed along I-35 this afternoon. These storms are expected to bring heavy rainfall leading to MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities. Also can't rule out some strong gusty winds as they move through. MVFR to IFR ceilings linger through the overnight hours behind the showers/storms. There is also the indication that patchy fog could develop across the region alongside these lower ceilings, but any fog that does develop should burn off fairly quickly through the morning hours. Confidence in fog impacts is currently not high enough to include at the TAF sites, but is something to monitor overnight. Winds gradually shift to the northwest through Thursday morning generally 10KT or less. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Falkinham/Naylor AVIATION...Falkinham  052 FXUS63 KIWX 081753 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 153 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet today with highs in the mid/upper 80s. - Thunderstorms are likely Thursday evening and overnight. Isolated severe storms and heavy rain are possible with the best chances south of US-30. - Low chances for a few storms Friday and Saturday but turning dry and hot again next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main forecast concern over the next 24 to 48 hours continues to be the increased potential for convection w/ the passage of a weak mid-level short wave from Thursday evening through Friday AM. Little has changed w/ regard to the overall forecast thinking as confidence has increased in a more southeastward trajectory of the short wave, leaving the bulk of our CWA with very meager instability/shear profiles while the most ripe theta-e air mass (and better wind profiles) remain well to the south. Still think the focus area will remain south of US-30, but still some uncertainty here w/ mesoscale influences. As such, not comfortable trending PoPs downward at this point even though it seems central and southern IL/IN may be in a more favorable position. There remain some hints at a nocturnal MCS tracking across the region overnight, possibly impacting a set of our southern zones. Would anticipate heavy rain and localized flooding to be the primary hazard for this event, but a couple strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. /Hammer Previous Discussion (Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026): Another tranquil weather day today as broad mid/upper level ridging and low level theta-e sink remain centered directly over our CWA. Some patchy fog is possible this morning but limited near-surface moisture and some clouds in the SE will keep coverage and density in check. Highs today likely very similar to yesterday though perhaps a degree or two warmer given some subtle WAA and airmass modification under strong July sun. Lows tonight only in the mid/upper 60s due to slowly increasing low level moisture and a slightly warmer afternoon. Main forecast concern is thunderstorm potential Thu evening/ overnight. A weak (convectively modified) midlevel shortwave will approach the area Thu evening. A modest increase in low level SW flow ahead of this wave will bring better moisture into the region but it's worth noting far better theta-e surge remains focused over central and southern IL/IN. Midlevel lapse rates remain paltry and 0- 1km MLCAPE values likely struggle to get much above 1000 J/kg. Wind/shear profiles are also light with only around 20 kts of flow at 850mb and 0-6km bulk shear values are 25-30 kts at best. These parameters are marginally supportive of a few strong/severe storms. However, expect coverage of strong storms to remain low given weak mid/upper level support for upward ascent and better moisture convergence focused to our south. The best chances for a few strong storms currently appear to be roughly 22-04Z south of US-30 but that could change over the next 24-36 hours. Will also have to keep an eye on the overnight hours as some solutions send an MCS through central IL/IN late Thu night into Fri morning that could clip our southern zones with some heavy rain. Still think better chances for this will be just south of our area along the main moisture gradient but confidence isn't high and will watch this closely over the next few forecast cycles. The rest of the forecast is mainly quiet. A few SCT storms will be possible again late Friday and perhaps on Sat. Friday's chances will be dependent on exact timing and evolution of potential morning MCS but suspect a return to dry/stable NE flow behind this wave will keep most of the areadry for most of this time. Again, best chances for a stray shower/storm will be south of US-30. No severe weather expected given even more marginal instability and shear profiles. Large/strong (600+ dam) midlevel ridge then expected to develop over the central CONUS early next week and likely nose into our region at some point. Still some disagreement here with GFS keeping the ridge just to our west and allowing a backdoor cold front midweek while ECMWF (and to a lesser extent the Canadian) bulldoze the ridge into our region leaving us hotter and drier. Slight preference for the latter but overall no changes to the concensus initialization at this time. /AGD && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 107 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few fair weather cu this afternoon and very high cirrus. Mid level clouds will start to increase on Thursday morning in advance of the next weather system. Light southwest winds will also start to increase on Thursday, but will generally remain around 10 kts or less. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078-177- 277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hammer/AGD AVIATION...Cobb  034 FXUS65 KVEF 081752 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1052 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and warming temperatures will continue through the end of the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday. High pressure builds aloft and temperatures are on the rise through the rest of the week. Afternoon high temperatures will top out between 5 and 7 degrees above normal and Las Vegas has a 40 to 50 percent chance of a high of at least 110 degrees each afternoon between Thursday and Saturday. Hot daytime temperatures combined with warm overnight low temperatures will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for most locations. This level of heat will affect those who do not have access to sufficient cooling and hydration, as well as those who are especially vulnerable to heat related illnesses. The position of the high should maintain dry conditions and afternoon breezes, which prompt elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region today and tomorrow. A classic monsoon setup develops this weekend as high pressure becomes established over the Four Corners region and southerly flow advects moisture into the Desert Southwest. PWAT values of an inch or more cover areas along and southeast of Interstate 15 on Sunday, at which point the best precipitation chances will exist over high terrain in northwestern Arizona. Moisture increases and POPs spread north through the first half of next week, generally favoring high terrain where orographic lift favors thunderstorm formation. Finer details on timing and location of storms should become more apparent over the next few days. Other than storm potential, lowering heights aloft and the moisture influx should help lower temperatures by a few degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds will shift to the southwest early in the forecast period, increasing to around 10-15KT with gusts to 20-25KT through the afternoon. Gusts are expected to diminish quickly after sunset with the loss of heating, with winds becoming light and variable by daybreak. Following a similar pattern on Thursday, winds shift to the southeast by mid-morning, then veer to the southwest during the afternoon with another round of gusts to 20-25KT expected thereafter. VFR conditions with clear skies will continue, with a high temperature of 109F and temperatures exceeding 100F through 04Z this evening, and again on Thursday after 18Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds across much of the region will shift to the south- southwest this afternoon, with gusts to 20-25KT common through sunset. An exception to this will be in the northern Owens Valley including KBIH, where winds generally follow daily patterns until mid-afternoon, when a push of westerly winds around 10-15KT is expected through sunset, followed by a northeasterly shift before winds become light and settle out of the northwest overnight. At KDAG in the western Mojave Desert, winds generally remain westerly, with periodic gusts to around 25KT through midnight. Tonight, winds become lighter across the area, with another round of elevated/gusty southerly to southwesterly winds developing late in the period. VFR conditions with no operationally significant cloud cover will continue. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...PhillipsonFor more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  065 FXUS61 KOKX 081754 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 154 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gradual warming trend through the end of the week. 2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday afternoon and evenings. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure moves into the open Atlantic today, while weak high pressure slides southwest of the region, allowing for dry conditions expected through Thursday morning. Temperatures will be slightly below average with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The high pressure will shift to the southeast and offshore on Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs reaching near seasonable levels in the lower to middle 80s. The warmest day of forecast period will likely be Friday. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s. Max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures/heat indices will be lower for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The forecast heat indices on Friday are below the 1 day heat advisory criteria (100-104 for any length of time). .KEY MESSAGE 2... A weak shortwave aloft is forecast to pass across the northeast on Thursday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is likely to set up across the area. The combination of these features supports the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Modeling has differed in the placement of the focus for convection, but current consensus indicates the highest probabilities across the southern half of the area including the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. Showers/storms that develop in the afternoon may gradually work east towards southern CT and Long Island in the evening. CAPE values are not too impressive with forecast soundings indicating 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE away from any sea breeze influence. 0-6km shear is weak with on average of about 20 kt. This should limit severe potential and SPC currently only has the area in a general thunderstorm risk for Day 2/Thursday. A slightly more amplified shortwave trough axis is expected to pass across the northeast on Friday. This system should drag a cold front through the area late Friday into Friday night. The system will bring potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. The latest model consensus brings the highest probabilities to areas north and west of the NYC metro. Shear is a bit stronger averaging around 25-30 kt with similar CAPE valued as Thursday. Specific details on any severe weather threat are uncertain since this is still 3 days out, but CSU MLP does indicate a marginal probability for a severe thunderstorm. PWATs are progged to range from 1.75-2.00 inches both days. Some lingering MVFR at KGON through about 12Z.It is too early to determine if there will be any flooding impacts and WPC currently does not have the area in an excessive rainfall outlook. However, given the high moisture content, any thunderstorm can produce heavy rainfall rates. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The ensemble mean synoptic pattern across the CONUS indicates ridging across the west and NW flow/troughing over the east and Western Atlantic. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. Scattered showersand thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon at the NYC area terminals, as well as at KSWF. PROB30 groups were maintained during the timeframe where TSRA is most likely, which is generally between 18Z and 22Z Thursday, depending on location (on the earlier side for the terminals farther to the west; on the later side to the east). Winds are shifting to S/SW this afternoon at less than 10kts and will remain that way through Thursday afternoon. Winds pick up slightly at 10-15kts Thursday afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday afternoon through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet through 2 pm due to lingering 4-5 ft seas. Seas will diminish on all waters today with high pressure returning. A frontal system passes across the waters late Friday into Friday night. Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV/MW AVIATION...BJG MARINE...NV/MW  071 FXUS62 KCAE 081754 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 154 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor adjustments made to key message, hot and mainly dry conditions are expected this afternoon and on Thursday with heat index values as high as 105 degrees. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Hot conditions continue across the area, with limited chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and on Thursday. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Hot conditions continue across the area, with limited chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and on Thursday. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front. Latest 500mb analysis shows a mid-level ridge axis centered across the eastern forecast area this afternoon. This feature, combined with stable conditions in the 700-500mb layer, suggests that any thunderstorm coverage this afternoon will be isolated in nature. Any convection that does form should struggle to have significant vertical development therefore the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is low but non-zero given the ample CAPE and DCAPE available. Based on current satellite imagery, it appears southern and eastern portions of the CWA would be most likely to see isolated showers and thunderstorms and this is reflected in the PoP forecast. In terms of the heat threat for today, MaxT was bumped down by a few degrees in most spots based on current trends in the observations, but values should still top out in the mid-90s with a few spots in the upper 90s. Heat Index values will generally be between 100 and 105 degrees. The aforementioned trough over the lower Mississippi Valley is expected to move eastward tomorrow and lift northward around the ridge over the area. As it does, the latest guidance stretches it out some. So, while the chances for thunderstorms are a bit higher tomorrow due to this, they do remain on the low side (up to ~20%) suggesting similar weather conditions to today. The latest model guidance for Friday suggests a higher risk for thunderstorms, mainly across the northern and western counties. An approaching front for the weekend brings a greater chance for shower and thunderstorm activity to the region. Flow aloft is also forecast to become more zonal, which could lead to the front and associated precipitation chances lingering into next week. As has been emphasized over the past week, the ongoing heat remains a concern. Temperatures are expected to remain 3-6 degrees above normal through Saturday, with heat indices reaching the low to mid-100s. Most locations should remain below Heat Advisory criteria (108F), so no Heat Advisories are anticipated at this time. Continue to practice heat safety, especially with prolonged heat expected to persist. Please remain diligent if you have outdoor activities planned. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. VFR conditions in place at all the terminals with cumulus clouds developing around 5kft this afternoon. Latest satellite observations shows these clouds are remaining flat as the upper ridge is over the area with limited upscale growth expected through the afternoon. While isolated storms remain possible, probability remains around 10 percent or less for impacts to the terminals with upper ridging over the area. Westerly winds with gusts between 15 to 20 knots expected through the afternoon with winds becoming light tonight and diminishing cumulus clouds. Breezy westerly winds expected once again tomorrow with convection not expected through 18z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon storms this weekend and into early next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...7 AVIATION...96  072 FXUS64 KMRX 081754 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 154 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 147 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day. - Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning. - A wet pattern will likely be in place this weekend and may pose a more widespread flooding threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The latest surface analysis shows that the boundary to our north has moved into the region and is over Northern Tennessee stretching back to a low in Arkansas. In the upper levels, a weak cut-off low or trough remains just to our west centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley today. This trough will slowly drift eastward into our region by Thursday. Showers and storms have mostly dissipated and it should remain quiet through the early morning hours according to the NBM and CAMs. Patchy fog is likely through the early morning hours mainly in locations that received a lot of rain the last couple of days. By this afternoon, showers and storms will return with that boundary still lurking somewhere nearby and a trough just to the west. HRRR has isolated convection this afternoon but the rest of the CAMs look more scattered. NBM suggests isolated coverage in the Valley and more scattered in the higher terrain. Isolated flooding issues will be possible again today. PWAT values may be a tad lower today closer to 1.5 inches but steering flow will still be westerly and parallel to the boundary. Therefore, some training may occur. A few strong storms may produce some gusty winds with good instability and DCAPE values but the threat is too low for the SPC outlook. Another round of widespread showers and storms are expected on Thursday as the trough moves closer and remnants of the surface boundary linger. Friday through the weekend a trough will be over the Eastern U.S. and a ridge will be building into the Central U.S. A series of minor waves moving through the pattern will bring multiple rounds of showers and storms possibly into the night. Friday through Saturday may pose a higher flood risk with high rain rates due to deep moisture and good instability. The wet pattern will continue through at least Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered showers and storms are expected across the region through the evening. Updated timings of PROB30s based on latest radar and CAM trends. Persistence forecast with brief morning fog at KTRI. Southwest winds will be breezy for TYS/TRI tomorrow, with gusts around 20kts possible. Another period of scattered showers and storms are expected tomorrow afternoon, and future TAF issuances may likely need to include some mention of at least vicinity activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 73 91 / 20 40 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 88 72 88 / 40 60 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 71 88 / 30 60 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 85 68 85 / 60 70 40 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...KRS  158 FXUS64 KLCH 081756 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1256 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible along the sea breeze this afternoon. - Shower activity is expected to decrease for Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. - A weakness redevelops over the weekend along with deeper tropical like moisture helping to increase shower and thunderstorm activity. - Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.) && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure overhead, providing a light southwest to west flow across the forecast area. Aloft, a weakness remains over the Ark-La-Miss, with weak ridging to the west and east. Area radar shows a few isolated showers and storms ongoing along and south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon, with coverage slowly expanding as we move towards max heating hours. The weakness aloft will provide some additional support for convection this afternoon however, it doesn't look like coverage will be quite that of the last few days. Nevertheless, WPC has once again outlined the entire forecast area within the Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today. With only scattered activity expected this afternoon, the inclusion of this outlook is strictly to cover the possibility of slow moving heavy downpours that could cause very localized flooding issues over more urban areas. Otherwise, it looks like (shocker) another hot and humid afternoon with highs reaching into the low to mid 90s. Tomorrow and Friday, what remains of the weakness aloft continues to break down as ridging to the west and east expand towards each other overhead. As weak ridging become situated across the southern CONUS through the end of the week, it will tamper our daily chance for showers and storms down a bit for a couple of days. While we won't dry out completely, we will see much more sunshine than rain through the next couple of days. Temperature wise, we continue to reach into the low to mid 90s through the afternoon, with heat indices peaking in the mid 100s. By the weekend, POPs ramp up once again as upper ridging shifts west and becomes situated over the Rockies allowing a weakness to develop overhead once again. This weakness aloft together with the seabreeze/diurnal heating will result in more widespread afternoon activity each day from Saturday into early next week. This will keep afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, with max heat indices in the low to mid 100s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along/south of the I-10 corridor into this evening, possibly expanding further north later this afternoon as well. Like the last few days, if any of these storms pass over the terminals they will be capable of producing heavy downpours that cause reductions in VIS along with frequent lightning. Outside of these storms, VFR conditions and light and variable winds should prevail throughout the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Surface high pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf through the week. This will keep a light south to southwest flow and low seas in place. Isolated to widely scattered shower and storms will be possible each day, with coverage increasing a bit by the late weekend into early next week as another weakness develops aloft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No fire weather concerns at this time. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected today along the sea breeze, however coverage will decrease Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds in. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...17  200 FXUS64 KSHV 081757 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this afternoon hours. - Quiet and dry weather will return Thursday and continue through the end of the week, with areawide highs in the low to middle 90s. - Unsettled weather looks to return Sunday and continue into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A lingering upper-trough extending from the Ohio River Valley southwest into the ArkLaTex, combined with a weak surface boundary across northeast Texas along the I-30 corridor, will provide enough instability to generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across much of the region today. Weak ridging to build across the region on Thursday in the wake of the front shifting north and the upper-trough exiting the region. Under a subsident dome of high pressure, temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 90s on both Thursday and Friday with otherwise dry conditions prevailing. A latitudinally oriented broad upper-level trough and surface front to build south across the region late in the weekend and will linger areawide through the end of the forecast period on Tuesday night. Instability associated with the trough and surface boundary will allow for periods of convection across portions of the ArkLatex each day. Additionally, with increased mixing and cloud-cover, high temperatures will be slightly cooler than what is expected for July, averaging in the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Monday and Tuesday. /05/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will continue through much of not all of the 08/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has developed across Deep E TX into much of N LA/extreme Srn AR, with weak decaying convection slowly drifting SE across portions of extreme NE TX W of TXK. This convection is mostly associated with low AC cigs between 8-11kft, which will likely persist through much of the afternoon before diminishing. Convection coverage this afternoon remains highly uncertain, with the best confidence in at least isolated convection occurring by mid/late afternoon over portions of Deep E TX across NCntrl LA. Have maintained VCTS mention for the SHV/MLU terminals only, but even this may be a stretch and will continue to monitor trends and will remove as needed. Any convection that develops should diminish by early evening, although some AC/cirrus cigs may linger this evening before thinning overnight. Scattered stratocu (with the potential for some brief low MVFR cigs) may develop by/after 12Z Thursday across portions of Lower E TX (S of I-20) and N LA, before lifting into a scattered cu field by mid to late morning. SSW winds 5-7kts this afternoon will become S 3-8kts after 00Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon across the region for any isolated strong storms that develop. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 95 77 95 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 76 96 77 96 / 20 10 10 0 DEQ 73 95 76 94 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 76 97 77 97 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 74 95 76 95 / 20 10 0 0 TYR 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 77 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 76 96 76 95 / 10 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...15  311 FXUS61 KPBZ 081759 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 159 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes have been made to the forecast, as overall model trends have remained fairly stable. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening, mainly south and east of Pittsburgh 2) Unsettled pattern Thursday through Saturday, with at least some potential for heavy rainfall and isolated flooding concerns, especially south of I-70. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Flat ridging aloft, along with drier air above 700mb, is keeping clouds and showers suppressed to the north and west of Pittsburgh. To the east and south of the city, better overall moisture (1.3 to 1.5 inch precipitable water) and terrain/low- level convergence are helping to fuel isolated to scattered showers. To this point, the capping and dry air aloft is stunting updraft growth for the most part, keeping cloud tops warmer than -10C and thus preventing lightning generation. Continued updraft attempts may eventually allow convection to get tall enough for a few thunderstorms, but shear and CAPE profiles remain unfavorable for severe weather. Brief downpours are possible and overall weak flow is encouraging slow storm motion, but any instances of heavier rainfall and/or potential flooding issues should remain very isolated at best, limited to locations that see multiple cells. Activity will decrease in coverage and intensity this evening as daytime heating is lost, and a brief areawide precipitation lull is expected during the mid to late evening. Another round of at least patchy fog is in the cards given the weak flow and lingering low-level moisture. KEY MESSAGE 2... A dampening shortwave trough is forecast to ride up the Ohio Valley tonight, with the axis crossing the Central Appalachians on Thursday. With the deeper moisture and best mid-level support/weak low-level convergence accompanying this wave, increased coverage of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms is expected mainly south of I-70 after 06Z Thursday, and remaining generally south of Pittsburgh during the daylight hours. Continued weak shear and low downdraft CAPE values should once again keep severe weather threats to a minimum. However, there may be a small uptick in heavy rain/flooding potential. HREF means suggest 1.6 to 1.8 inch precipitable water values tomorrow afternoon, and max precipitation progs indicate that isolated 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals may be possible in areas that receive multiple storms. At this time, flooding probabilities remain too limited in scope to consider a Flood Watch. A somewhat more vigorous shortwave is slated for a Friday passage. The track appears similar to the Thursday disturbance, but better areawide moisture potential plus some upper support from the right entrance region of a northeast CONUS upper jet should promote more widespread rain coverage. Again, severe weather threats remain muted, but rain totals/flood threats will need to be monitored south of I-70, as this region is once again pegged by ensembles as having higher precip totals. WPC notes this as well, bringing a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of excessive rainfall south of Pittsburgh on Friday. A boundary may set up shop near the Mason/Dixon Line on Saturday, keeping higher rain chances once again to the south of Pittsburgh, and potentially continuing an isolated flood risk there. Passage of the front Sunday will bring a drier trend to the region that is expected to continue into the middle of next week, along with a slow warming trend. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The CU rule and model soundings indicate a scattered to broken VFR cumulus layer is likely through the day. Weak surface convergence and aid in lift from orographic ascent could produce a few showers and storms east of Pittsburgh, but coverage should overall be less today than the previous few days as warmer mid-level air puts a lid on updraft strength. Maintained a TEMPO -TSRA mention for LBE, MGW and DUJ for this potential. Elsewhere, forcing looks to be too minimal to support any development. Light west-northwest wind today will relax to light and variable overnight tonight with some cirrus. A shortwave will track up through the Ohio Valley and likely spark off additional showers after midnight in northern West Virginia primarily confining impacts to MGW. Expect that we will see another round of fog develop in the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning with the light wind, remnant ground moisture, and scattering of clouds, again most dense where rain falls today. Confidence in impacts at any TAF site is too low to be included at this time, but will continue to be evacuated throughout the afternoon. Confidence is even lower for MGW even if rain does fall there today as additional showers overnight would negate dense fog development. Outlook... Scattered showers and thunderstorms could bring periodic restrictions again on Thursday primarily south and east of Pittsburgh. More widespread showers and possible thunderstorms are expected Friday with a crossing shortwave. Additional morning fog and stratus is possible through the weekend, with shower/thunderstorm potential mainly south of PIT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...MLB/JNC