368 FXUS62 KTAE 081800 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Rain chances decrease some the next few days but a typical summer time pattern remains. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures expected throughout the week. Heat advisory conditions likely across the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The western Atlantic ridge begins to exert its influence on the sensible weather today as it builds west. Drier mid-level air rotating in from the south and southeast should keep our POPs lower across the eastern Florida Big Bend and into portions of Georgia. Elsewhere, across the Florida Panhandle and western Florida Big Bend, favorable seabreeze convergence should at least help keep isolated to scattered shower and storm activity around. With the ridge building, we should see temperatures climb a few degrees, especially across our eastern zones where POPs are lower. With this in mind, have issued a heat advisory for these areas. While heat indices across much of the area touch or slightly exceed 108, we have not issued a heat advisory for the entire forecast area. The main arguments against one across the Panhandle and parts of the Big Bend were the higher rain chances, and which will provide relief in the afternoon. For tonight, rain chances drop off after sunset but like the last few days, late overnight isolated showers/storms can't be ruled out along/near the coastal regions on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Rain chances will likely become more isolated Thursday and Friday as the upper level ridge remains prominent. A few weak shortwaves moving north of the ridge could help spawn better chances inland across our AL/GA counties. Additionally, some heat advisory concerns could continue. By the weekend rain chances will slowly increase as the Western Atlantic ridge becomes suppressed by several impulses moving down the eastern side of an expansive upper level ridge across the western US. By next week rain chances could return to above normal levels as an active pattern sets up on the southern periphery of the large upper level ridge across the northern US. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another afternoon of isolated to scattered showers and storms impacting area terminals throughout the afternoon and early evening. MVFR to IFR conditions may briefly occur near/under any downpours and/or thunderstorms. Conditions improve shortly after sunset as activity winds down for the night. Showers and storms are then again expected to begin moving inland tomorrow shortly after sunrise. Wash, rinse, repeat. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through Thursday, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Relatively low fire weather concerns, outside of higher dispersions across southwest Georgia counties, will prevail the next few days. Afternoon humidities will be in the 40 to 50%range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon with coverage decreasing the rest of the week, with only isolated storms possible Thursday and Friday. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest through the period but localized increases across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons. Main concerns outside fire weather will be heat indices possibly reaching advisory criteria today with pockets reaching near 110 F. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A typical summertime pattern will remain in place today but lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely by the end of the week. Widespread rainfall amounts of less than an inch are forecast with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. No flooding is expected, although rainfall amounts will increase again by early next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 95 76 96 / 10 20 0 20 Panama City 81 92 81 92 / 10 20 10 10 Dothan 76 95 75 95 / 20 30 10 30 Albany 77 95 76 96 / 10 20 0 20 Valdosta 76 97 76 97 / 10 10 0 10 Cross City 77 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 81 90 81 91 / 10 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ018-019-028-029- 034-118-128-134. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ124>131-144>148- 158>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  325 FXUS63 KPAH 081800 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Repeat daily storms has lead to a Flood Watch for Thursday afternoon-Saturday night. 1 to 2 inches cumulative rainfall is forecast on average, but locally higher amounts 2-3x that are possible if and where storms repeat over the same areas. - Best strong to severe storm chance is late Thursday into Thursday night. - Smaller non-zero severe weather chances exist again Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An upper low's meandering presence today will offer enough convergence/uplift to produce scattered showers/storms. With little to no shear aloft, it'll be primarily warm/moist/instability driven during the heating hours especially, with localized heavy rain from slow to non moving storms the main hazard. Lightning and collapsing storms producing gusty winds are also potential hazards. The wave drifts east late tonight and tmrw, as we go into a synoptic warm-sector like shift in the surface environment. This will drive dew points more broadly into the mid 70s, offering plenty of moisture for the approaching/incoming perturbations that begin streaming in later in the day tmrw and esp tmrw night to begin to produce a period of more active showers/storms across the area. With bulk shear increasing into the 25-35 kts range, this will be enough to add severe (slight risk) potential for any storms from late tmrw into tmrw night, in addition to the continued heavy rain/localized flooding risk. More such wave(s) and similar boundary lay-out may make for another small (marginal risk) svr threat late Friday into Friday night. All these successive rounds of heavy rainfall, esp if they fall over the same areas, will heighten the flooding risk and is why a Flood Watch is now in effect thru Saturday night. More storms/potential heavy rains come heading into the weekend. As a result, the WPC excessive rainfall outlook heightens from MRGNL to SLGT risk during the Flood Watch time frame. After the weekend, the signal is to go slightly drier thru roughly the first half of next week. Temps may mute somewhat with all the convection, then hover around climo as we work into the drier (relative) pattern early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered storms may offer temporary drops in CIGS/VSBYS, primarily during the heating hours today. Patchy fog is possible as bases scatter out and winds are light late tonight, which may offer some restrictions to vsbys. More convective chances enter the forecast as the day wears on tmrw. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022. && $$  386 FXUS64 KLUB 081800 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Daily thunderstorm chances return Thursday and continue through Tuesday. For Thursday and Friday, the storm chances are generally confined to areas north and west of Lubbock. - Hot temperatures continue through Saturday, followed by a slight cooldown Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 At midday Wednesday, mostly clear skies existed across the forecast area. A flattened upper ridge was positioned over the SW CONUS, with an upper low over the Ohio Valley. A weak sfc low was located over SW KS, which contributed to breezy SW winds this morning. As a weak shortwave ejects this afternoon, modest sfc pressure falls over SE CO will turn winds to S/SE locally. Convection will develop along the higher terrain of north NM/CO by this evening and spread east, but any upper support from the aforementioned shortwave will be focused towards W KS, thus the expectation is our forecast area stays dry tonight. For Thurs, a similar evolution to today is expected as another impulse traverses the upper ridge. This will once again result in SW sfc winds during the morning followed by S/SE flow during Thurs afternoon. High temps will be similar to Wed, perhaps a degree or two warmer, generally in the upper 90s on the Caprock and low triple digits off the Caprock. This shortwave is expected to be slightly deeper, and track a bit further southeast, than tonight's wave, which does introduce some low precip chances (10-20%) to the northwest portions of the forecast area Thurs evening, but the better precip chances will once again be focused from I-40 northward into W KS. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 There is high confidence that the synoptic pattern will feature a strengthening ridge, with height rises occurring to our west and north as the ridge expands into the northern Plains this weekend. While there may be some modest height rises locally, it will not be sufficient to stymie precip development and at least some precip chances exist within the forecast area Fri-Tues, generally in the afternoon or evening. Fri evening features a similar pattern to Wed-Thurs, thus precip chances are once again focused across the northwest CWA (20%) and increase north of our forecast area. Precip chances expand and include much of the region both Sat evening (20-50%) and Sun afternoon/evening (20-40%). A slow moving front over the central Plains/Midwest will gradually be nudged southward by the sfc high that develops over the Midwest in response to the upper ridge. As this occur, the higher PWAT airmass will gradually shift south of our area, lowering the precip chances. The model blend kept a low chance (20%) of precip across the southern half of the forecast area on Mon/Tues, but the better precip chances (30-40%) will be to the south of our forecast area. While any storms that do form will be capable of producing gusty winds, organized severe storms appear unlikely over the next week owing to weak deep layer shear and uninspiring mid-level lapse rates. Temperatures will remain similar through Saturday, then trend slightly cooler early next week (highs on the Caprock in the low 90s, mid 90s off the Caprock). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR remains firmly in place and will continue thru the prd. Expecting breezy (10-15G20KT) SW winds at all three terminals through at least 00Z. After 00Z winds will slacken a bit but remain from the southwest. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...28  453 FXUS64 KMEG 081801 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase through Friday. Heat index values will approach 105 degrees on Thursday and Friday for portions of the Mid-South, especially areas along and west of the Mississippi River. The heat will continue into the weekend. - A slow-moving upper-level disturbance will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week. The stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A compact upper-level low continues to spin over the lower OH Valley today. This feature will continue to provide large-scale ascent across the region, aiding the development of scattered convection this afternoon. The environment remains very moist, with precipitable water (PWAT) near 2.0" across the CWA. Very weak deep-layer shear and a modicum of mid-level dry air will again result in an environment favorable for locally heavy downpours and perhaps a few microbursts. That said, the severe weather threat remains generally low today. Convection will likely continue into the early evening hours with a few cells potentially persisting longer. PoPs were extended after 7 PM in some areas. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The heat is expected to build slightly on Thursday and Friday, with highs climbing 2-4 degrees across the CWA. This is in response to the aforementioned upper-level trough moving east toward the Appalachians. This should lead to slightly lower diurnal coverage of thunderstorms and less cloud cover. The NBM is pushing heat indices to 105-109 degrees tomorrow afternoon, mainly in the MS delta and west of the MS River. However, the NBM appears to be overdoing dewpoints and may have a slight warm bias. It's not out of the question that a few areas reach 105F (heat index), but coverage should be low enough to preclude a Heat Advisory. Will let the next shift reassess this potential. Otherwise, expect scattered diurnal convection with an early evening lull. CAMs continue to indicate increasing convective development Thursday night as activity upstream over MO/KY moves ESE into portions of the MO Bootheel, far northeast AR, and northwest TN. PWATs remain high, and the guidance indicates the potential for training storms in this corridor. The flooding risk will primarily be driven by short-duration rainfall rates (especially in more urban areas), but there is a potential for 2-3+ inches of rain should all ingredients come together. A Flood Watch has been issued to account for this flooding risk, roughly along and north of a line from Corning, AR, to Dyersburg, TN, to Parsons, TN, beginning at 1 PM Thursday. This watch will continue through Friday and Saturday, given the likelihood of daily redevelopment. There is also a slightly higher risk for severe weather on Friday given the strong instability and potential for microburst activity. The marginal risk (level 1/5) captures this risk sufficiently. Moving into the weekend, the upper-level ridge quickly builds over the Rockies and Northern/Central Plains, with 500-mb geopotential heights near or just above 600 dam by early next week. These heights exceed climatology for the Northern Plains, indicative of a very strong upper-level ridge. The good news is that we'll be removed from the anomalous mid-level heights on the southern periphery of the ridge, limiting our temperature-related impacts. This pattern will result in deep easterly flow that will maintain a relatively moist, unstable air mass Monday through midweek. Expect the status quo of afternoon/evening convection each day with temperatures remaining near or slightly below climatology. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty about how this pattern will evolve during the latter half of the week. Will the ridge retreat over the western CONUS, or will it persist over the middle of the country? A slight majority of the GEFS members (and to a lesser degree the EPS) are more aggressive with the trough digging over the eastern CONUS by mid/late next week. This builds the western ridge, promoting northwest flow aloft across the Mid- South. This pattern would likely result in lower diurnal PoPs due to a drier air mass, but could also open the door for MCS activity. Still a lot of details to sort through with these scenarios. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main aviation concern over the next 24 to 30 hours will be chances for convection. Storms have already formed this afternoon in the Mid-South and will generally move off to the east and east southeast. Coverage should not be overly widespread; therefore will account for thunderstorm potential with PROB30 groups. Locally reduced visibility and ceilings are likely if a thunderstorm directly impacts a terminal. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail. Winds through the period will generally be out of the southwest to south and less than 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No fire weather concerns are anticipated across the Mid-South through the next week. Minimum relative humidity is forecast to remain above 40 percent each day with generally light 20-foot winds. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, with the most likely time during the afternoon and early evening hours. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for ARZ009. MO...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for MOZ113-115. MS...None. TN...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for TNZ001>004-019>022-054-055. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ AVIATION...TAB  441 FXUS65 KTFX 081801 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1201 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms across Southwest and Central Montana Thursday and Friday afternoon. - Trending hotter toward the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday looking hottest. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Upper level troughing well off to the northwest over northern BC will progress eastward through the day today, eventually emerging into northwestern AB by the evening. Flow aloft across the region will largely be zonal, but be ever so slightly cyclonic in nature given the disturbance off to the northwest. This weakly cyclonic nature of the flow will combine with sufficient daytime heating to result in at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region by mid-afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings suggest wind will be the primary concern with the strongest thunderstorms, but increasing shear through the afternoon combine with respectable instability will yield a large hail threat as well. This activity exits eastward late evening or early overnight. The main upper level disturbance passes eastward into Thursday, though some lingering instability across SW MT will yield a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon. Thereafter an upper level ridge begins to build in across the Central CONUS and interior west, which will allow for temperatures to climb heading into the weekend. While the hottest conditions look to remain off to the east and southeast, afternoon temperatures rising well into the 90s in many areas this weekend will pose impacts to those with outdoor plans. Plan for plenty of hydration and rest breaks if planning to be outside this weekend. Heading into next week the ridge looks to slide eastward ever so slightly, which looks to open the door for some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall through this Evening... Confidence has increased through the morning that an isolated severe thunderstorm or two will occur through the timeframe that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of Southwest through North Central Montana, generally along and east of a Havre, to Great Falls, to Helena, to Butte, to Big Hole Pass line. BUFKIT soundings across these areas show deep inverted-V's with CIGS of 9-12kft, which would suggest that damaging winds would be the primary hazard for these areas. With that being said BUFKIT soundings over the plains of Central and North Central Montana, especially across Fergus and Blaine Counties, do support sufficient instability within the hail growth zone for the potential of hailstones to approach 1" but less than ideal shear will likely be the limiting factor for hail to exceed severe criteria. Hot Temperatures this Weekend... Climate anomaly indicators continue to support the potential for an unusual to very unusual period of hot temperatures, with respect to early to mid-July climatology, across the Northern Rockies; especially along and east of a Lewistown, to Helena, to Chief Joseph Pass line where EFIs are in excess of 0.6. This is not to say that areas north and west of this line will not also see hot temperatures, but with respect to July climatology readings will not be as anomalous. The tables below depict Low End (NBM5.0 10th Percentiles), Most Likely (50th Percentiles), and High End (NBM5.0 90th Percentiles) scenarios with respect to high and low temperatures over the weekend; withlarger spreads between the three scenarios suggesting greater uncertainty due to a combination of cloud cover/wind speeds and directions/latent heat release while smaller spreads suggest greater certainty. Saturday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 83 | 87 | 91 Cut Bank 89 | 93 | 97 Havre 93 | 100 | 104 Great Falls 94 | 99 | 103 Lewistown 91 | 96 | 100 Helena 93 | 98 | 101 White Sulphur Springs 91 | 95 | 97 Bozeman 95 | 98 | 100 Dillon 91 | 96 | 99 Ennis 92 | 96 | 98 West Yellowstone 86 | 90 | 91 Sunday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 78 | 87 | 94 Cut Bank 84 | 93 | 99 Havre 92 | 101 | 107 Great Falls 93 | 100 | 106 Lewistown 92 | 99 | 106 Helena 92 | 99 | 106 White Sulphur Springs 92 | 99 | 103 Bozeman 97 | 101 | 105 Dillon 92 | 98 | 103 Ennis 96 | 100 | 103 West Yellowstone 90 | 94 | 96 Sat. Night's Low Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 55 | 58 | 63 Cut Bank 54 | 59 | 66 Havre 59 | 62 | 68 Great Falls 57 | 62 | 67 Lewistown 55 | 59 | 64 Helena 61 | 64 | 68 White Sulphur Springs 53 | 57 | 60 Bozeman 57 | 61 | 65 Dillon 55 | 58 | 62 Ennis 57 | 60 | 63 West Yellowstone 47 | 52 | 57 Sun. Night's Low Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 49 | 58 | 65 Cut Bank 50 | 60 | 68 Havre 56 | 63 | 71 Great Falls 57 | 63 | 70 Lewistown 54 | 59 | 66 Helena 61 | 67 | 71 White Sulphur Springs 54 | 58 | 63 Bozeman 57 | 62 | 66 Dillon 56 | 61 | 65 Ennis 57 | 60 | 65 West Yellowstone 49 | 54 | 59 At this time these scenarios would tend to suggest that while daytime temperatures will be hot across most areas, especially on Sunday, temperatures will cool sufficiently enough during the overnight hours to provide some relief from the heat. This relief offsets the need for Extreme Heat highlights at this time, but at the event draws closer Heat Advisories may be need for some locations. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 08/18Z TAF Period Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move from west to east across Southwest through North Central Montana between 18z this afternoon and 00-06z this evening, with the greatest concentration of showers and storms occurring along and north of the US Hwy 12 corridor. VFR conditions will generallyprevail throughout the duration of the 0818/0918 TAF period with the exception of beneath showers/storms when brief MVFR/low-VFR conditions will occur. Additionally, patchy fog may develop near the KHVR terminal during between 10-14z Thursday, but confidence in this occurring is low given that only a few Hi-Res members support this scenario. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 55 88 55 93 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 54 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 56 88 56 91 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 52 88 54 90 / 20 10 10 0 WYS 45 83 45 84 / 20 20 30 0 DLN 50 86 52 89 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 56 88 56 92 / 60 0 0 0 LWT 52 83 53 89 / 40 10 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  560 FXUS64 KEWX 081803 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 103 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Low rain chances for the rest of today and Thursday, but increasing again Friday through at least middle next week - Daytime heat mainly in the 90s continues into next week with heat index values reaching into the 100-107 range for many areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast for South Central Texas for the rest of this afternoon. Highs are anticipated to reach the mid to upper 90s for the most part. Heat index values are likely to range from 100 to 107. Rain chances are limited across the local area through this evening. However, a few locations along and east of Highway 281 could experience a quick shower or thunderstorm late this afternoon. A clear night is in store across South Central Texas with overnight lows in 70s. Drier weather conditions are forecast for South Central Texas on Thursday with less than 10 percent probability of rain. Highs are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 90s across most locations with heat index values in the 100 to 107 along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Another clear night is forecast for Thursday night with overnight lows in the mid 70s for the most part. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A weather pattern change takes place on Friday and continues into Saturday. The subtropical ridge stays over the four corners region while an inverted upper level trough lingers over the Rio Grande Plains through the period. With pwats at 2+ inches over the Coastal Plains, Interstate 35, and the Hill Country, we are forecasting scattered shower and thunderstorm activity (30 to 50 percent probability of rain) across those areas. Slow moving storms could produce heavy downpours and 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in a short period of time. Also, shower and storm activity could shift to the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau late afternoons into the early evenings through the period. As far as the day time high temperatures for Friday and Saturday, they remain the in the 90s with heat index values ranging from 100 to 107 along and east of the I-35 corridor. Weather conditions continue unsettled on Sunday into the middle of next week with rain chances for most of South Central Texas as outflow boundaries move from central Texas into the local area, a slow moving inverted upper level trough, and sea breeze enhanced convective activity. Dry weather returns on Thursday as the subtropical high takes control. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Persistent south to southeasterly flow is expected through the period. VFR ceilings look like a good bet through this forecast cycle, however, there is an outside shot at a brief hour or two of MVFR ceilings at AUS, SAT, and SSF tomorrow morning. For now, it is not in the TAF as confidence is too low to include. Some wind gusts up and over 20 kts are expected on Thursday as southerly flow starts to ramp up. No other big changes for this forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 98 77 95 / 10 0 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 97 77 95 / 10 0 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 97 76 94 / 0 0 0 30 Burnet Muni Airport 74 96 73 94 / 10 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 98 76 95 / 10 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 74 95 75 93 / 0 0 0 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 76 95 / 10 0 0 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 97 77 95 / 0 10 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 76 93 / 0 0 0 30 Stinson Muni Airport 76 95 77 93 / 0 0 0 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...MMM  642 FXUS65 KFGZ 081805 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1105 AM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...For most, mainly hot and dry conditions are expected through the end of this week. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue over portions of eastern and central Arizona Wednesday, but expect less activity Thursday and Friday. Then, Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up this weekend and into next week. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon through at least Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...The ridge axis that has been along the AZ/NM border for the last few days has started to flatten and retrograde to the west this morning. Before this fully develops, expect another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Navajo and Apache counties, as well as northern Gila County and possibly eastern Yavapai and southern Coconino counties. Moisture values are decent over much of the CWA, but the deepest moisture still resides south of the Mogollon Rim and across much of southeastern Arizona. Any convection moving into this air mass this afternoon could develop into isolated, yet fairly strong storms. By Thursday and Friday, the ridge position to our west will drive most moisture south of the CWA, with the only activity likely being over or just south of the White Mountains. This will be short-lived. By Saturday and Sunday, the ridge rapidly rebounds, strengthens and then moves into a very favorable flow pattern for the North American Monsoon. This is starting to look like our official start, as all of next week is now looking quite robust. As the moisture pool wobbles in and out of the CWA, we expect very warm temperatures to continue, possibly not peaking until Saturday or Sunday. The Extreme Heat Warning for the Grand Canyon is in effect through Saturday evening. Other lower elevations will experience similar conditions, but are not in any EHW products. That is about it, moisture teases us for a few days and then, it surely looks like the Monsoon begins. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION...Wednesday 08/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...Primarily VFR conditions. Brief MVFR possible in SCT SHRA/TSRA, primarily over southern Apache and Navajo counties during the afternoon. Some ISOLD cells may push as far west as a KFLG/KPAN line by late afternoon. Winds are SW 10-20 kts through 03Z, becoming light and VRB overnight. OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/18Z through Saturday 11/18Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD storms possible INVOF the White Mtns each afternoon. Winds are SW-W 10-20 kts each day, light and VRB or terrain during the overnight periods. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Most areas will remain hot and dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over eastern Arizona Wednesday, with more isolated activity as far west as a Flagstaff to Payson line. Thunderstorm activity Thursday mainly over the White Mountains. Stronger storms either day will be capable of producing wetting rains. Friday through Sunday...Hot and mostly dry. Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountain region on Friday, before activity starts moving back west and north Saturday and especially Sunday. Expect southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph on Friday. Winds becoming lighter and more variable for Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  689 FXUS63 KARX 081806 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 106 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clusters of storms developing over southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin advance southeast this evening. Some storms may be severe and produce locally heavy rainfall of (1-3"), mainly west of the Mississippi River. - Quieter weather for the remainder of the week with a 20-30% chance of afternoon storms for Thursday. - Cooler for the end of the week with warmth returning early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This Afternoon: Severe Weather and Heavy Rain Risk A convective complex that moved through central Minnesota gradually decayed and shifted northward through the morning hours as it ran into a more stable airmass, with the back edge of the anvil shield serving as the trigger for new convective development around noon as return southerly flow streamed up through the Siouxland. These cells have already grown into a multi-cell complex with additional cells developing further upstream along I-90. Given the earlier initiation timeframe and continued convective debris lingering over the forecast area, concerns area shifting more towards a heavy rain threat vs. severe threat with these storms. There looks to be a period before 00Z where storms could train along the I-90 corridor in southeastern Minnesota before the convective cold pools take over and propagate to the southeast, which should result in the convective complex sagging southward as well. Multiple runs of the HRRR through the day have been focusing the QPF axis of 1-3 inches (with some pixels of 4-5 inches) between I-35 and Highway 52 in southeast Minnesota and far northeast Iowa, an area that remains saturated from last week's deluge. Given these trends, have issued a flood watch for much of the area west of the Mississippi River through midnight tonight. There severe threat remains on the table, but will probably be more focused west of the Mississippi River (maybe even closer to I-35) where there will be better recovery of the airmass. There is some southeastward elongation in the 1-5-km hodographs that could support some storms organization, but with cells already growing upscale into clusters, severe weather will likely be focused in narrow corridors where the convective cold pools can organize. As the storms become more outflow dominant in the evening, the severe weather threat should wane. Thursday Afternoon: Scattered Showers and Storms Cooler and slightly less humid air filters southward on Thursday in the wake of this afternoon's storms, but vertical thermal profiles will still support pulse convection during the afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and little to no inhibition. Shear profiles and forcing will be weak and therefore storms will struggle to organize. Very localized heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches would be the main threat with these storms given their slower storm motions. Cool End to the Week, Warmer Next Week Upper level ridging builds in for the weekend and into early next week, keeping the threat for rainfall at bay while at the same time pumping heat northward into the northern CONUS. At this point, the warmest temperatures are progged to be more over High Plains with the Upper Mississippi River Valley falling under a weak east to southeasterly flow under or just west of the surface high pressure reflection. This may act to temper temperatures and dewpoints compared to locations further west, though to the exact degree is less certain. Highs are still forecast to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s no matter how you slice the forecast, making it feel solidly like summer. The ridge flattens around midweek, but how fast it amplifies earlier in the week will dictate whether this flattening brings convection down into our region or if the storms stay to the north and we remain under the heat. The various ensembles groups remain in their respective camps on how this will unfold with no clear leaning one way or another. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Primarily VFR conditions continue through the next few hours with light southwest winds ahead of expected showers and storms that move northwest to southeast across the region this afternoon into tonight, generally in the 20z to 09z timeframe. That said, there are some storms have already developed along I-35 this afternoon. These storms are expected to bring heavy rainfall leading to MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities. Also can't rule out some strong gusty winds as they move through. MVFR to IFR ceilings linger through the overnight hours behind the showers/storms. There is also the indication that patchy fog could develop across the region alongside these lower ceilings, but any fog that does develop should burn off fairly quickly through the morning hours. Confidence in fog impacts is currently not high enough to include at the TAF sites, but is something to monitor overnight. Winds gradually shift to the northwest through Thursday morning generally 10KT or less. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ086>088-094>096. IA...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for IAZ008>011-018-019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skow AVIATION...Falkinham  699 FXUS63 KDTX 081806 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 206 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance of showers and ordinary thunderstorms toward the Tri Cities and northern Thumb tonight. - Thunderstorms spread southward while increasing coverage and intensity Thursday and Thursday night. An isolated damaging wind gust and locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards in thunderstorms. - Dry weather with near normal temperatures settle in Friday through the weekend. - A heat wave is possible next week (3 consecutive days of 90+ degrees). && .AVIATION... Diurnal cumulus field based from 4-6 kft AGL has filled in this afternoon with periods of SCT-BKN coverage, amidst a deepening boundary-layer. The high pressure influence preserves VFR conditions through the rest of today, for all Southeast Michigan terminals. Winds remain light, AOB 10 knots, generally holding from the west- southwest. Lighter overnight winds trend toward calm, late. A slow moving frontal boundary will drift south across southern Lower Michigan on Thursday leading to showers and thunderstorms. At this time, only have enough confidence that MBS and FNT will get showers and storms before 18Z Thursday. Did add PROB30 groups to establish an initial onset time for those terminals, with an earlier introduction of rain for MBS. High degree of uncertainty with overnight potential for perhaps several rounds of showers/storms glancing MBS. D21/DTW Convection...Scattered thunderstorms are possible as early as 17Z Thursday afternoon, but are more likely to arrive/develop closer to 19Z. Two or three total rounds of storms are possible before Friday morning. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceiling at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon. * Medium for thunder Thursday afternoon and/or evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 DISCUSSION... Weak high pressure maintains control of conditions in SE Mi while shifting toward the Atlantic coast and SE States today. After areas of fog, morning sun allows full daytime heating into pockets of cumulus for the afternoon. Light SW wind then helps temperatures finish near 90, a few degrees above normal for early July. Not far to the NW is the next cold front focusing showers/storms along and ahead of it into the northern Great Lakes. Consensus of the new 00Z regional/global deterministic models and hi-res ensembles shows activity still north of MBS early this evening. This assumes the ongoing upper Midwest convection fades on schedule by early afternoon, before the next round of surface based storms develop farther west again during peak heating. The front and low level moisture axis extend roughly from the Straits into the central Plains late this afternoon ahead of the surface wave also on schedule to ripple along the frontal zone tonight. The low amplitude short wave and surface reflection delay the southward progress of the front which is already subject to a mostly zonal large scale mid/upper level configuration on the south fringe of the northern stream westerlies. This timing limits shower/storm potential to the Tri Cities and northern Thumb later tonight and Thursday morning, a trend represented adequately in the NBM data. Slow southward progress of the front is also a consistent theme in the latest model solutions for Thursday and Thursday night as the boundary remains on the southern fringe of the northern stream westerlies across Canada. Very slow progression of the long wave pattern nudges the front southward into a favorable position to focus convection across southern Lower Mi, especially during peak heating in the afternoon and evening. Predictability is low on individual low amplitude short waves and/or MCVs, however the front and leading moisture axis with moderate zonal flow aloft still provide a favorable storm environment. HREF and REFS mean surface based CAPE are in good agreement with forecasts in the 1000-1500 J/kg range and with 0-6 km westerly bulk shear near 30 knots adequate for low end multicell clusters capable of an isolated damaging wind gust in line with the SPC Day2 Marginal Risk. However, locally heavy rainfall may end up being the primary hazard as the storm environment carries PW in the 1.5 to 2 inch range and considering the slow pace of frontal passage. The northern stream westerlies amplify just enough to build high pressure over northern Ontario into the northern Great Lakes early Friday. This pushes the front south of the Ohio border after some lingering showers during the morning. Slightly cooler and less humid air gains ground in the afternoon and especially Friday night when temperature guidance offers lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A lengthy period of dry weather follows for the weekend as the northern Ontario surface high builds into Lower Mi with temperatures near or slightly above normal through Sunday. A new round of heat is then on track to increase over the Great Lakes as the mid/upper level ridge builds over the central States. It is trending toward a better position to block Gulf/Atlantic humidity, however a warming trend appears solid for high temperatures returning into the lower and mid 90s during the early to middle part of next week. MARINE... The high pressure system that was over the Great Lakes the last several days will wash out across the Appalachia region today which veer wind direction to the south and southwest. A weak pressure gradient will maintain light winds while conditions remain dry for most locations, outside of some rain shower chances across the northern Great Lakes today and tonight. A cold front will then move through the region Thursday which will bring scattered to numerous rain showers along with some embedded thunderstorms. Lingering rain and thunderstorm chances will be possible on Friday across the southern Great Lakes before high pressure builds back in, providing dry weather and light winds through the weekend. HYDROLOGY... A slow moving cold front settles through southern Lower Michigan Thursday and Thursday night serving as the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area. Rainfall totals averaging around 0.5 inch are most likely with a chance of near 1 inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm coverage. The slow movement of the front could also produce more than one round of thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than 1 inch within a few hours time. Flooding potential in this scenario is still limited to ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of urban and other prone areas. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers into Friday morning and then comes to an end Friday afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....KGK DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......AM HYDROLOGY....BT You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  759 FXUS63 KLOT 081807 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 107 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm today with highs in the mid-upper 80s. - A corridor of heavy rainfall may occur somewhere in the region Thursday PM, though confidence in local impacts remains low. The strongest storms may be capable of gusty to locally damaging wind gusts, mainly south of I-80. - Mainly dry, warmer weather expected this weekend through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds are light and variable to calm early this morning amidst an expansive area of surface high pressure. Radiational cooling under clear skies may lead to patchy fog development, mainly southeast of a Pontiac, IL to Valparaiso, IN line where dewpoints depressions are lowest. Can't fully rule out very shallow and locally dense fog over low-lying open areas and fields. Any fog that does develop will quickly erode after daybreak. The mid-upper ridge axis will gradually shift east today allowing a return of southwesterly low-level flow to the area, which paired with mostly sunny skies will lead to a seasonably warm day with highs in the mid-upper 80s (upper 70s to lower 80s possible along the Lake County, IL lakeshore where winds lean southeast in the afternoon). To our northwest a shortwave and associated trailing cold front will lead to thunderstorm development across IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. This activity may attempt to drift into northwest Illinois very late tonight, likely in a decaying phase. Nevertheless, can't fully rule out gusty outflow winds and a few lightning strikes northwest of a Dixon to Waukegan, IL line after midnight. Looking ahead to Thursday through early Friday morning, the surface front and/or residual outflow boundary may stall over the area during the day. While there has been an overall southward trend in model guidance over the past 24 hours with respect to where the corridor of heaviest rainfall is most favored, there remains notable model spread in where this boundary ends up as well as the strength and position of a separate convectively augmented wave (and associated MCV) from the Central Plains that is expected to move across the region. Even with a southerly shift in its track, continue to have concerns that localized areas or even a narrow corridor of heavy rainfall may materialize within the vicinity of the aforementioned stalled boundary on the north side of the system (hinted at in the 6Z HRRR/NAMNest). Given the local susceptibility to flooding from recent heavy rains, will need to continue monitoring model and observational trends closely. The strongest storms will be capable of precip loaded gusty to locally damaging wind gusts, though the better potential for severe weather exists just south of the area into central and southern Illinois where the stronger mid-level flow is expected. The forecast for Friday will be largely dependent on Thursday, though in general the greatest coverage of showers and storms is favored south of the area. Have maintained precip chances (20-40%) south of the Chicago metro to account for any showers and storms that develop on the northern edge of another wave expected to move across central and southern Illinois. North to northeasterly low-level flow will lead to slightly cooler temperatures, in the lower 80s for inland areas and 70s near the lakeshore. While a few diurnally driven showers and storms can't be ruled out on Saturday, upper level ridging expands across the central CONUS over the weekend into early next week which should lead to mainly dry conditions into the first part of next week with temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. Given we will be on the northeast periphery of the ridge we will have to monitor the potential for thunderstorm complexes rounding the ridge across the broader region toward midweek. Petr && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will continue through much, if not all, of the period amid persistent SW winds averaging up to around 10 knots. There are a few windows for precipitation on Thursday, highlighted by TS potential late Thursday afternoon and evening. First, a line of TS developing from northwest Iowa to northern Wisconsin this evening is expected to gradually decay with southeast extent overnight. SHRA may survive into far northern Illinois after daybreak, so have maintained PROB30 SHRA for RFD. Next, the residual outflow boundary from the earlier storms should wash out across the area during the morning, but foster sporadic SHRA through at least mid afternoon. Have therefore maintained VCSH during this window, though it is feasible that the Chicago terminals remain completely dry during the morning and early afternoon. Finally, a mid-level wave crossing southern Wisconsin Thursday afternoon will provide a renewed focus for TS develop over northern Illinois between the 19 and 02Z (particularly 21-01Z at ORD/MDW). There remains uncertainty in both coverage and location (TS may remain just south of the terminals), but any TS will be slow-moving and produce torrential rainfall. Also, any initial TS originating from southern Wisconsin could push an outflow boundary with a N/NE wind shift across ORD/MDW/GYY prior to or during any TS at the terminals. Kluber && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ001-INZ002- INZ010-INZ011. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  833 FXUS65 KCYS 081809 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1209 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and Thursday with heavy rainfall, hail, and strong gusty winds possible. - A ridge builds late in the long term, drying the area out and developing Red Flag and potential heat advisory conditions through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 405 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A small plume of showers is slowly weakening as it moves eastward along I-80 this morning. Only a trace to couple hundredths is expected from this shower, so no beneficial rain is expected unfortunately. Another shortwave is expected to push across the region this afternoon. Hi-res models have initiation starting around 20z but the majority of the forcing won't arrive until about 00z in the form of lobes of strong vorticity. RAP has 3CAPE around 5-600 joules with MUCAPE around 1100 joules. The models maintain a rather straight hodograph for the mid-levels while the sounding indicates a rather dry lower level. This environment best suits gusty winds and large sized hail. With 0-6 Bulk shear around 50-60 kts in the Panhandle there's enough shear to separate the storms updraft and downdraft for sustained intensity. Given the setup of a shortwave with accompanying vortmaxes the HRRR and NAM-nest are probably the most reliable given their history with this setup. Both models have thunderstorms occurring in two phases with the weaker set of thunderstorms happening first. The two models diverge in the second phase as the HRRR has all the stronger storms developing north of our forecast area then dropping south into the Panhandle from South Dakota for a classic Dawes county clipper scenario. THe Nam-nest has all the forcing staying over our area from 00z to 06z and the Panhandle getting all the storms. So it will be interesting to see where the forcing sets up for our thunderstorms to utilize. SPC has the far-eastern portion of Wyoming and the all of the Panhandle in a slight risk for this afternoon with hail and high winds as the main threat. The models have the storms ending between 06z to 08z however the intermountain west looks to lose the shear closer to 04z so our severe potential window looks to be from 22z to 04z or 2pm to 10pm tomorrow. Thursday looks to be a wash rinse repeat of today. The same ingredients are present however the bulk shear looks to be a tiny bit weaker Thursday afternoon. However, the Panhandle does receive more a little bit more moisture at the surface Thursday compared to today. This means the storms will have a more energy to utilize but with weaker shear. Thunderstorms look to initiate around 21z again and last until 04z. Given the weaker shear these thunderstorms are more likely to be pulsy in nature with decent microburst potential but also able to produce some severe hail when they pulse up. Given the history with this section of the Intermountain west, Severe winds will be possible with collapsing cores and in the stratiform region of the storms with accumulating hail with a couple quarters thrown in there. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 405 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday, the upper level pattern starts to change as an upper level ridge starts to build around the Intermountain West and expand into the Central plains. The global models have come into an agreement about the ridge becoming pretty stout and will dry us out possible through the start of the next work week. NAEFS has most of Wyoming and the Panhandle in the 90th and above percentile through the end of next week. It will be HOT and Dry in the long term for a possible extended Red Flag warning for our entire CWA due to the already dry fuels and low RH's. However, the important wind component may not show up while under this broad ridge until Sunday as a shortwave looks to give us some breezy conditions worthy of a Red Flag. Temperatures will rise into the 80's and 90's this weekend with potential 90's and 100's by the start of the next work week. Staying cool will be a must and if you have to work outside may sure to take plenty of breaks and snack between meals so your body can retain some electrolytes that will be lost from sweating. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1128 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A relatively active day for thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon and evening, as the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, to the east of a Lusk to Cheyenne line, including far southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for this afternoon exists elsewhere to the west of a Lusk to Cheyenne line. Synoptically, a negatively tilted shortwave trough aloft will move into western Nebraska this evening, while a low level convergence axis develops along the Interstate 25 corridor, then storms will develop and strengthen as they develop and propagate across far southeast Wyoming, and especially the Nebraska Panhandle, where scattered thunderstorms may conglomerate and develop into a Mesoscale Convective Complex, or MCC, somewhere over the northern or central Nebraska Panhandle this evening, thunderstorms will likely end across the Nebraska Panhandle in the 03Z timeframe. Wyoming TAFS...Using the 16Z HRRR, which has consistently been fairly accurate with respect to timing, high confidence, and expect thunderstorm initiation between 18Z and 20Z from a Douglas to Laramie line, with storms strengthening along the I-25 corridor near 22Z, and mostly moving into western Nebraska around 00Z to 02Z. Expect TEMPO for thunderstorms at Rawlins and Laramie for much of the afternoon and into the early evening hours, and some storms will produce low level turbulence, strong downdrafts, as well as gusty and erratic winds up to 45 knots, along with brief MVFR visibility restrictions. VFR prevails however, with clouds clearing out late this evening and overnight. As is typical, expect gusty gradient and mix down winds until sunset. At Cheyenne, best chance for thunderstorms, and high confidence, according to the likely accurate 16Z run of the HRRR, will be from 20Z to 02Z, with storm initiation around 20Z, and storms increasing in coverage and intensity from 22Z to 01Z. Some storms will produce low level turbulence, strong downdrafts, as well as gusty and erratic winds up near 50 knots, along with brief MVFR visibility restrictions. VFR prevails however, with clouds clearing out late this evening and overnight. As is typical, expect gusty gradient and mix down winds until sunset. Nebraska TAFS...High confidence in the 16Z HRRR run, which has consistently shown thunderstorms developing and/or propagating along the Wyoming and Nebraska state line around 23Z, and crossing the Panhandle during the 00Z to 03Z time frame, with clusters of thunderstorms and a possible MCC, Mesoscale Convective Complex, forming this evening, somewhere over the northern or central Nebraska Panhandle and propagating southeastward. The strongest storms will be capable of producing one inch diameter hail or larger, wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and locally heavy rainfall, along with low level turbulence, and strong downdrafts. Brief MVFR will be likely during the thunderstorms this evening, with skies clearing out late this evening and late tonight. As is typical, expect gusty gradient winds and mix down winds until sunset. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None.NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...RUBIN  153 FXUS63 KAPX 081812 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI 212 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain and isolated strong storms through Thursday. - Significant heat and humidity builds once again by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Deep moisture will overspread northern Michigan tonight into Thursday as several mid level shortwaves ride along a quasi- stationary frontal boundary layed out across central Wisconsin into northern Michigan. Enhanced low level convergence along this boundary will provide the potential for locally heavy rains. The front will eventually sag south of the area, setting northern Michigan up for a mainly dry weekend. Significant heat and humidity build early next week as high amplitude ridging strengthens over the center of the CONUS. A myriad of model solutions tonight, largely influenced by convective evolution during the day and residual boundaries. Tonight likely features the best combination of moisture and forcing for heavy rain and possibly localized flooding with PWATs surging toward 200% of normal. Forecast soundings show deep moisture through the column, warm layer cloud depths to 12k+ and skinny CAPE - overall a favorable look for heavy rain. The activity tonight will be a very efficient heavy rain producer and we will have to watch for possible flooding in any areas with antecedent high soil moistures from recent rains (Leelanau County through the Tip of the Mitt). Later tonight into Thursday, a surface low will ride along the boundary draped across the area, further enhancing rain potential and slowing any southward drift of the front. The shower and storm chances continue on Thursday, with a slow southward shift in focus as the aforementioned boundary slowly sinks southward. Although only marginal instability through Thursday, a few stronger storms will be possible with gusty winds the main threat (due to precipitation loading). A nice summer weekend shaping up for northern Michigan with mainly dry conditions and highs in the 80s. Generally comfortable humidity levels as well, with a slight rise in surface dewpoints by Sunday as moisture begins to work back into the Great Lakes. A washed out frontal boundary on Sunday could be the focusing mechanism for a shower or storm but most of that appears to remain north of our area. More significant heat returns early next week as a large amplitude ridge builds to our west. Rising humidity will accompany the heat, with heat indices likely pushing well into the 90s (or higher). Some of the warmest temperatures for the week may occur early in the week, where the mid level cap will be strongest and convective development limited (much like occurred a week ago). The cap breaks down by midweek and "ridge runner" convective complexes will be possible across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Afternoon cu developing with cloud bases near 3-5kft, with some SHRA expected, esp for CIU/PLN and possibly TVC...expect SHRA/TSRA will pop up this afternoon, esp near APN after 21z. Visbys likely VFR/MVFR but could go lower in showers/storms, esp tonight. Currently expect a period of IFR/LIFR and DZ/BR across CIU/PLN as a low pressure crosses the Tip of the Mitt, but could break up toward morning instead. Best shot at widespread RA/TSRA will be this evening -- watch for storms over WI to track into TVC/MBL... and think another shot at RA/TSRA toward 9-12z as low strengthens. Winds light and generally vrb; lake breezes this afternoon and land breezes possible tonight at coastal sites, turning more N for CIU/PLN and E for APN toward morning. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JK AVIATION...FEF  233 FXUS63 KGRB 081813 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 113 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain expected this afternoon and evening, mainly between 3 and 8 PM over central and east-central Wisconsin. Damaging winds are the primary threat. - Torrential rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour within the strongest storms will create a risk for localized flash flooding, especially in urban, low-lying, and poorly drained areas. - Trends continue to be monitored for the excessive heat potential early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front stretching from west-central to north-central Wisconsin early this afternoon. Morning showers and storms have exited over northern Lake Michigan, giving way to partial clearing across central and east-central Wisconsin where temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s. Cooler temperatures in the lower to middle 70s persist across the north where cloud cover and rainfall were more widespread. Cloud cover is becoming more extensive again over southern Minnesota in association with a remnant MCV. Focus of this forecast remains on the severe weather and flash flooding potential through this evening. Severe Weather and Flood Outlook: Destabilization is actively taking place early this afternoon over central and east-central Wisconsin where mixed- layer CAPE is climbing upwards of 1000 J/kg. With further solar heating, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop in a buoyant airmass south of the front and across central Wisconsin in the 18-20Z time frame. These storms should track east through the afternoon before propagating southeast this evening as a cold pool becomes established. Deep layer shear of 25 to 35 knots is expected in the area of greatest concern across central and east- central Wisconsin. This shear profile will be supportive of a few bowing structures and perhaps an isolated supercell. Given the modest shear aloft, conditions will be most favorable for damaging wind gusts rather than severe hail. High freezing levels around 15,000 feet and poor mid-level lapse rates do not favor large hail, except within the strongest rotating updrafts. A weak, isolated tornado will also be possible, most likely focused along an outflow boundary or lake breeze where low- level vorticity is enhanced. The greatest period of concern is from 3 to 7 PM before storms shift south and east of the forecast area. Scattered shower and storm activity could persist into the overnight period, but a stabilizing atmosphere should keep intensities below severe levels. Upper-level flow will be nearly parallel to the surface front within a corridor of precipitable water values approaching 2.00 inches and high freezing levels. High rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are expected in the strongest storms, which could lead to localized flash flooding in vulnerable urban, low-lying, and poorly drained areas. Fog Potential Late Tonight: After the rain winds down late tonight into Thursday morning, there is a decent signal for fog development, particularly across central to north-central Wisconsin where clearing will occur first. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding how long showers stick around into Thursday. A moist boundary layer, weak cyclonic flow in the low levels, and weak shortwave impulses aloft could keep light showers lingering into the afternoon over central and east- central Wisconsin. Excessive Heat Outlook: An amplified upper air pattern featuring a dominant upper- level ridge is expected to build northeast into the region Friday through the weekend and persist into early next week. High pressure at the surface will slide across the area Friday through the weekend. While minor signals for spotty shower activity exist in some medium-range guidance, forcing is non- existent beneath the building ridge, and a dry forecast has been maintained. The primary story in the extended period will be potential for excessive heat. Very warm air aloft will accompany the building ridge will argue for surface high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Coupled with humidities remaining high, minor heat- related impacts appear possible at this time for those outdoors. Some relief from the heat and humidity is expected towards the middle to end of the next work week as the ridge begins to suppress southward. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Late this morning, a cold front stretches from west-central Wisconsin to north-central Wisconsin. MVFR to IFR ceilings exist along and north of the front while VFR conditions prevail to the south and south of RHI. This front will provide the focus for clusters of showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm redevelopment is expected 19-20Z with impacts into RHI/AUW/CWA starting during this timeframe. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and proceed into the Fox Valley in the 22-23Z period. Strong storms are likely with gusts in excess of 40 mph possible with ceilings and visibilities falling to MVFR and IFR/LIFR respectively. After the initial push of storms, scattered showers with embedded thunder looking to continue through much of the evening, while light showers could persist across parts of central and east- central WI into Thu morning. Late tonight, there is a decent signal for ground fog to develop. Central and north-central WI have potential for sub-IFR visibilities. The fog should lift into a MVFR stratus deck after about 15Z. Winds will be light over the period. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC AVIATION.......MPC  240 FXUS61 KRLX 081813 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 213 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion. As of 808 AM Wednesday... Have updated fog coverage across the area over the next hour or so, which should continue to steadily lift / dissipate. Have also removed any rain mention from the forecast until late morning. Fairly widespread fog / stratus this morning should delay any convective shower development across the central/southern zones a bit longer than originally progged. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and into the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Locally heavy rainfall will remain a possibility throughout the rest of the work week and into the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place amid some forcing from a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves. Steering flow remains light today, at 10 knots or less, but does pickup from Thursday into the weekend as upper air dynamics begin to rule. This will mean mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today will become more driven by the upper air pattern for Thursday into the weekend. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend. With the ground already saturated in many locations, localized flash flooding remains a threat. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed across the area this afternoon, providing brief MVFR/IFR restrictions at times. This trend is expected to continue through the evening, with activity gradually diminishing after sunset, with the potential for another developing round later tonight into Thursday morning. More widespread restrictions are expected tonight with developing fog and/or stratus, with LIFR or worse progged for most terminals. Fog/stratus gradually lifts/dissipates through ~ 12 to 14Z, with MVFR CIGs possible thereafter with developing diurnal Cu. MVFR VSBY restrictions are also possible with any heavier showers or storms. Light and variable flow is expected today, going calm in most areas tonight. Light west-southwest flow develops on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary. Restrictions overnight into Thursday morning with fog, stratus, and additional rainfall will vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend, more likely in the afternoon and evening hours. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY/GW AVIATION...GW  470 FXUS61 KILN 081818 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 218 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes from previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow primarily south of I-70. 2) A larger system arrives near the end of the working week, reintroducing a heavy rain and localized flooding threat. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A loosely organized low over the Lower Ohio Valley to track slowly east thru the region thru Thursday. As this system tracks to our south - the northern periphery of showers and thunderstorms will affect the southern portion of ILN/s forecast area. Storms will continue to develop in the moderately unstable airmass across the south this afternoon. A very moist environment will exist with PWAT values at 1.75 inches or above. This moist environment and slow storm motion will lead to a threat for heavy rain and localized flooding. Model solutions show a slight down tick in shower and storm coverage later this evening with an increase in coverage late tonight into early Thursday as the shortwave tracks thru the area. There may be a diurnal uptick in the east Thursday afternoon as the system exits the area. KEY MESSAGE 2) The westerlies will push south late this week with an associated slow moving cold front sagging south from Canada and laying out parallel to the mid level flow across the southern Ohio Valley. This zonal flow will provide the focus for several shortwave disturbances which track thru the region this week. These shortwaves and and associated showers and thunderstorms will impact our area Thursday night through Saturday. A very moist environment will be in place with PWAT values of 2+ inches. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms and the very moist airmass, will offer the threat for heavy rain and localized flooding. The greatest QPF footprint appears to be across ILN/s southern counties, with a widespread 1-3 inches with a gradient lessening the farther north you go. Locally higher amounts will be possible with stronger storms and where training storms develop. Uncertainty on the exact placement and amounts exits but will continue to message the heavy rain threat for areas south of I-70. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weakly organized low over the Lower Ohio Valley to track slowly east thru the region thru Thursday. As this system tracks to our south - the northern periphery of showers and thunderstorms will affect the southern portion of ILN/s forecast area. Storms have developed in the moderately unstable airmass across the south this afternoon. Have a tempo mention at KCVG and KLUK for this threat for a thunderstorm this afternoon. Model solutions show a slight down tick in shower and storm coverage this evening with an increase in coverage late tonight into early Thursday as the shortwave tracks thru the area. Have a prob30 mention of a thunderstorm in the southern TAF sites for this threat. There may be a diurnal uptick in the east Thursday afternoon as the system exits the area - which could affect the Central Ohio TAF sites. Have kept conditions generally VFR but brief MVFR to IFR vsby and ceiling restriction are possible in storms. Winds subside again after sunset and patchy fog may develop again tonight but due to the increase in clouds have not mentioned any visibility restrictions in the TAF/s. Outlook...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR  457 FXUS62 KFFC 081818 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 218 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered (15-30%) showers and thunderstorm each afternoon and evening, increasing each day and maximizing this weekend. A few storms may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph. - Heat index values peak each afternoon between 95 and 105. Heat advisory for portions of Southeast GA Today and again on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another hot and dry once again today despite the modest low level and deeper moisture in place. Similar to yesterday, sounding data showing 500 and 700 mb temps running warm and in the 90th percentile climo range. Combined with a small cap just above the freezing level and clouds will struggle to gain any vertical growth and momentum. Changes begin to happen tonight into tomorrow as the mid level ridge anchored over FL begins to break down and shift east as a ridging develops over the western US. Additional moisture and less inhibition will become more available Thursday afternoon thus pops begin to creep back up to near normal starting Thursday PM. Temps and dpts on Thu will be similar to today thus have continued the Heat Adv. for portions of middle GA on Thursday. Looking ahead, it is likely necessary again on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorm chances during the afternoon are expected to increase as we approach the weekend, especially across the northern part of the state. A slow moving front across the southern appalachians will eventually stall out over the southeast as the long term picks up bringing unsettled weather along and north of I-20 this weekend. By Monday, the front will begin to move off increasing rain chances for the entire CWA. The models indicate cooler and drier conditions are possible as we start next week, but the timing hasn't been consistent between the runs. What that looks like will ultimately come down to how quickly the weekend's stationary front leaves the area. Widespread severe weather isn't too much of a concern later this weekend. The SPC has us in a Marginal Risk on Saturday for far NE Georgia. The threat is mainly conditional to discreet afternoon convection and the primary threat will be the possibility for damaging winds. The approaching front and afternoon convection should bring us some relief from the heat though. Highs in the low to mid 90s with apparent temps in the triple digits will continue through Saturday before falling back into the 80s by the end of the weekend. The one saving grace here is that as storms become more numerous in the afternoon, radiation cooling will help prevent a number of sites across the CWA from seeing peak heat during the afternoon and temps may not rise as high as they would without them. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Rinse and repeat forecast. VFR CU field cigs today should wane this evening. Expect a similar day again tomorrow with CU field developing by 16z with TS chances increasing tomorrow moreso than today. Added a prob30 for ATL, and will need one for other sites in future updates. Winds will remain west running 5 to 10 kts...with gusts and more variable direction in and around storms. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 94 74 94 / 0 20 20 30 Atlanta 75 93 75 92 / 0 20 10 40 Blairsville 66 84 66 84 / 10 40 20 70 Cartersville 72 91 73 92 / 0 30 20 60Columbus 75 94 75 93 / 0 30 20 20 Gainesville 73 92 73 92 / 0 20 20 30 Macon 75 95 75 94 / 0 20 10 20 Rome 71 90 72 91 / 10 40 30 60 Peachtree City 73 92 73 91 / 0 30 10 40 Vidalia 78 99 78 98 / 0 10 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ074-084>086- 096>098-104>113. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ085-086-097- 098-106-108>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...30  443 FXUS63 KABR 081818 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect Thursday afternoon through evening for north central South Dakota and parts of central South Dakota west of the Missouri River. Hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main threats. - A slight cooldown is expected today and Thursday, with widespread near-normal high temperatures (upper 70s to 80s). A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 There area some low clouds over portions of central and northeastern SD this morning. The lower clouds should dissipate by the afternoon and mostly clear skies will be around during the afternoon. While there is some instability over central SD this afternoon, there is a capped environment over central and northeastern SD that should keep storms and showers from developing during the evening into tonight. Temperatures today and Thursday will be around normal for this time of the year, with highs in the 70s to 80s. A frontal boundary will be moving into SD Thursday afternoon through the night with some warm, moist temperatures sneaking in during the day. There will be higher instability Thursday afternoon over northwestern SD, with CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, which will help with storm development as the frontal boundary pushes through late Thursday afternoon. During the evening, the environment for storms will weaken, with CAPE values dropping into the 1000 J/kg and even lower during the overnight hours. The storms will move east into central and northeastern SD into the weaker environment which will start to weaken the storms and cause them to dissipate. High-res models are still forecasting scattered storms to move into north central SD and some area west of the Missouri River Thursday evening before dissipating as they move east. There is a slight (level 2 out of 5) to marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for these storms to become severe over north central SD. The primary hazards in these storms will be hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60-70 mph. An upper-level ridge will be starting to develop over SD Friday into the weekend and early next week. This ridge will be pushing warm, humid air up into central and northeastern SD through the weekend and onward. Temperatures warm to be around 5-15 degrees warmer than normal on Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Then they will increase even more Sunday and Monday to be in the mid 90s to mid 100s. Heat index values will get up into the mid 90s to triple digits Sunday and Monday. There is a 30-50% chance for heat risk to reach Major category Saturday, with a 75-95% chance Sunday and Monday. There is also a 25-45% chance of the Heat Risk to get into the Extreme category Monday. Those who are sensitive to heat as well as those who lack cooling and hydration through the day could develop heat illnesses. The ridge and high pressure will also help to keep storms and showers from developing and moving into central and northeastern SD through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to continue for KABR, KATY, an KPIR into the afternoon before the low ceilings from lower clouds will clear out. KMBG will stay in VFR with KABR and KPIR becoming VFR during the early afternoon. KATY on the other hand will have to lower clouds sticking around for longer, which will cause IFR/MVFR ceilings to be around into theevening before clearing to VFR. Northeasterly winds will continue to stick around through the day, with the winds shifting to be from the east southeast during the morning over KPIR and KMBG. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...12  545 FXUS62 KMLB 081820 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2206 - A building HeatRisk is expected into late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, please visit heat.gov. - A Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties thru 6PM today where peak heat index values are forecast to reach up to 109F. Elsewhere, peak heat indices may approach 107F. - Building dry air will reduce rain chances through the end of the work-week, though increasing shower and lightning storm chances return this weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2206 Current-Thursday...Drier air gradually filters into the area leading to below normal diurnal (ISOLD-WDLY SCT) rain chances (10-30%) during this period. Strengthening mid-level ridging will promote subsidence across the area. Light/variable morning flow will transition onshore at the coast in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Limited moisture, daytime heating, and boundary collisions will be the main factors in any shower/storm development. Storm steering will be light (out of S/SW), but may be erratic at times from boundary collisions. Any storm could become locally strong with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-55 mph locally, and heavy downpours. Activity will diminish thru mid evening. The main weather story will be max temps in the L-M90s and some U90s too, esp near/north of I-4. Widespread peak heat indices 104-107F and 108-110F possible locally - esp where Heat Advisories go into effect. Widespread Major to Areas of Extreme HeatRisk will be possible. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Take frequent hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C if you feel unwell. Min temps consistent and well into the 70s with conditions remaining humid. Fri-Tue...Building high pressure ridging continues across the area into the weekend. The weak surface high pressure ridge axis will meander between south-central FL and north-central FL into early next week. Drier air continues into Fri with reduced rain chances, but pockets of moisture will surge back into the area this weekend promoting a closer return to normal diurnal shower/storm chances. Fri precip chances 10-30% (highest near Lake Okee), with 20-60% on Sat/Sun - highest south of Orlando on Sat & then near/north of Orlando on Sun. Generally 30-70% rain chances are forecast Mon/Tue. With that said, still the building HeatRisk continues into the weekend with only brief relief (couple/few degrees) Mon/Tue. Fairly stout mid-level ridging continues across the central FL peninsula thru the weekend, with gradual break-down Mon-Tue with arrival of troughing across the Deep South. Shortwave energy will provide aid for convection and the higher PoP values already mentioned. This ridging will lead to a period of above normal temperatures, highest values near and north of I-4. Expect highs in the L-M90s near the coast and M-U90s into the interior. A building (Widespread Major to Areas of Extreme) HeatRisk is expected to affect those without adequate cooling and hydration. Trends will be monitored for any potential Heat Advisories as peak heat index values may near or exceed the 108F threshold across portions of the area (Fri-Sun). && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2206 Thru Sun...Weak high pressure ridging will meander between the south- central and north-central FL peninsula thru the weekend. This will produce generally favorable winds/seas. Shower and lightning storm chances will remain isolated to widely scattered (at best) into the weekend as drier air moves into the region. Light SW/S flow will transition onshore each afternoon with sea breeze formation and push inland. Late aftn/evening winds may increase to 14-18 kts over the open Atlc (generally north of the Cape), but otherwise speeds AOB 15 kts. Winds and seas locally higher invof convection. Seas 1-2 ft occasionally increase to 3 ft offshore, and by Thursday seas build to more widely range 2-3 ft across the local waters (perhaps 4 ft briefly over the Volusia waters). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2206 A band of deeper moisture across north central FL is already leading to isolated storm development north of KMCO, near KSFB and KDAB. Should see at least scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly north and inland of KMLB through this afternoon and evening as sea breeze boundaries push inland and collide. Continued VCTS for sites from KMLB northward, but also added TEMPO groups for MVFR TSRA impacts for inland TAF sites eastward toward KDAB and KTIX where best storm potential exists. Storms will diminish in coverage through the evening hours, with dry conditions overnight. Looks even drier into tomorrow, with low shower and storms chances (10-20%) near to north of KMCO in the afternoon/early evening on Thursday. Winds will be somewhat light and variable, becoming E/SE around 10 knots along the coast with the east coast sea breeze. Winds then decrease and become light and variable once again overnight through Thursday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2206 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 8 July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 98 (1981) 97 (2202) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 98 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (1969) 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 100 (1908) 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 97 (1998) 96 (2203) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 98 (2204) 96 (2204) 97 (2202) 96 (2200) Fort Pierce 97 (2204) 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 95 77 94 / 30 20 20 10 MCO 78 97 77 97 / 20 10 10 20 MLB 78 93 78 92 / 10 0 0 10 VRB 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 79 96 79 96 / 20 20 20 10 SFB 78 97 77 97 / 20 20 20 20 ORL 78 96 78 96 / 20 10 10 20 FPR 76 93 76 92 / 10 10 0 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-164- 254-259-264. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Weitlich  692 FXUS61 KBTV 081822 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 222 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... 1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. 2. A warming trend and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front passes through the region late in the day tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing some showers and thunderstorms. Before then, a very weak area of low pressure will track up the Saint Lawrence Valley tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Most of the rain during the day will fall along a stationary warm front oriented west to east along and north of the international border. Thankfully, the synoptic forcing will be weak and the atmosphere will lack some components for heavy rainfall, so any flooding remains unlikely despite a potentially problematic synoptic setup. The rain will fall in multiple rounds that are moving and have gaps in between them. These showers and storms will move southeast through the region later in the afternoon and in the evening. In northern areas, 0-6 KM shear looks to reach 30-35 KT, while it looks to remain well under 30 KT farther south. CAPE values look to range in the 500-750 J range where clouds associated with this initial rain do not remain in place. This leads to a marginal threat for severe weather, where isolated strong to severe storms are possible, mainly across northern areas. However, poor lapse rates and dry air aloft will further lower the severe threat. The main threat would be damaging winds. Behind the front, cooler and drier air infiltrates the region on Friday and will remain in place for the weekend. High temperatures this weekend look to be in the upper 70s and 80s, while lows should be in the 50s to around 60. Humidity will be relatively low and dry weather will prevail through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging will build into the Northern Plains early next week while an upper trough exits to our east. This will place northern NY and New England under northwest flow. Models continue to indicate a couple of weak fronts/surface troughs to ride through this northwest flow and cross our region. However, timing varies quite a bit from model and run to run, leading to considerable uncertainty. Both moisture and warmth will increase through this period, with highs approaching 90F and dewpoints rising into the 60s. With this in mind, any thunderstorms could be on the strong side if any boundaries/fronts happen to push across the region during peak heating. The exact timing is difficult to pin point this far out though, especially given the differences in model solutions, so have stayed with NBM/WPC forecast for now, with 25-40% PoPs each afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire TAF period. FEW-SCT clouds AOA 5000 ft this afternoon will erode overnight, with winds becoming light and variable. There are some indications that KMPV could see another round of early morning fog, but confidence is not enough to include in the TAF at this time. Otherwise, clouds start to increase after 12z Thu, especially in northern areas as a cold front approaches the international border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with the frontal passage, but the bulk of this activity will occur after 18z, so have not included in the TAF at this time. Winds remaining less than 10 kt through 18z Thu. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Hastings AVIATION...Hastings  680 FXUS61 KGYX 081822 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 222 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence has increased that southeastern New Hampshire is going to see heat index values greater then 95F Thursday afternoon. A Heat Advisory has been issued accordingly. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Heat and humidity build Thursday, lasting through Friday before a slow moving front brings cooler and drier air by late Friday night. 2. A couple of weak cold fronts bring a chance of thunderstorms on both Thursday and Friday afternoons and evenings. Some of these could be strong to severe. 3. Mostly dry with seasonable temperatures this weekend with a warming trend possible during the early to middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Latest model guidance is all in good agreement on warm and sticky weather beginning Thursday as 850 mb temperatures climb to +16-18C under a low amplitude ridge that will be quickly swinging through the region. This supports surface temperatures in the upper 80s to 90F, with southwesterly flow providing an extra boost to valley locations that may push them more toward 91-92F via downsloping. The southwesterly winds are also going to bring elevated dewpoints (middle to upper 60s) that will push heat indices up above 90 in many locations. The southern New Hampshire portion of the Merrimack Valley may even see heat index values in 95+ range, so have gone ahead with a Heat Advisory for Eastern Hillsborough and Interior Rockingham. The sea breeze likely gets kept at bay, so these aforementioned warm temperatures should be realized right down to the coast. For areas north of the mountains, the front looks to begin to sag south of the International Border bringing increased cloud cover and showers/storms (detailed in Key Message 2). This stunts warming potential, limiting these locations to the low to mid 80s. As the front continues to sink southward Friday cooler and drier air will be moving in behind it. As of now areas north of the mountains stand the best chance of seeing a more pleasant day with highs in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints down into the upper 50s and low 60s. South of the mountains, 850 mb temperatures around +17C linger in southern zones so those locations are likely to see another day with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to 90F. Elevated dewpoints linger too, but with temperatures a little bit lower on Friday, heat indices should be as well. Guidance is still struggling slightly with the timing of the front, but it looks like by late Friday night most locations should be seeing the relief with low temperatures dropping into the 50s and 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... In addition to the heat and humidity, a couple of weak cold fronts will also bring chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon to early evening hours each day for Thursday and Friday. For Thursday, the higher overall chances for storms will be across the north in closer to proximity to the cold front itself, and some of these could be strong to severe with 30-35 kt of effective shear and around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE per the HREF ensemble mean (some deterministic guidance has more instability). Farther south, instability is forecast to be more in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, but coverage may be more limited because of lesser forcing, lesser shear, and some dry air aloft. However, if storms do develop in southern areas, they may carry more of a wind threat with the dry air aloft bringing more in the way of DCAPE. PWATs climbing over 1.50" and deepening warm cloud depths will also support efficient rain rates, and with flow roughly parallel the boundary, we'll have to monitor for a localized flash flood risk if any training can set up. This lines up well with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall from WPC in and around the mountains. Most guidance has this front pushing offshore Friday morning with a secondary front approaching later in the day, and lift from this front should again allow showers and storms to develop in the afternoon. Today's 12Z guidance doesn't look to bring quite as much instability, but there still may be enough for a couple of strong to severe storms as shear parameters look fairly similar to Thursday (the higher potential looks to be south of the mountains this time). KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Surface high pressure builds toward New England over the weekend, but a 500mb shortwave may provide enough lift for a few showers on Saturday. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast with fairly seasonable temperatures in the 80s. For the early to middle part of next week, there is high confidence in a strong ridge of high pressure to become centered over the Central and Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes. Some expansion of the ridge is possible toward the Northeast to bring a warming trend, but we also may remain more on the eastern periphery to bring occasional chances of showers/storms ("ridge rollers") and more cloud cover. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday....VFR conditions continue through Thursday afternoon with LEB and HIE possible seeing localized IFR conditions after 06Z as valley fog develops again tonight. Any valley fog that forms should clear out after 12Z or 13Z with the prevailing condition turning back to VFR. Some TEMPO MVFR is possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Outlook... Thursday night: Mostly VFR with MVFR remaining possible as showers and storms linger. IFR fog is also possible again, especially in locations that see rain and valleys, but uncertainty is high regarding that. Friday: Lingering IFR possible at LEB through around 13Z due to valley fog. VFR otherwise, but afternoon thunderstorms could bring TEMPO IFR to MVFR restrictions. Saturday-Sunday: Mainly VFR. However, nighttime/early morning valley fog may bring IFR to LIFR restrictions, mainly at HIE and LEB. Monday: TEMPO IFR to MVFR possible due to afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, VFR. && .MARINE... Winds shift southwesterly tonight with that being the prevailing wind through Thursday. High pressure builds back over the Atlantic keeping wind gusts and waves generally below SCA thresholds. The exception may come Thursday night as high pressure moves off to the east and some 5ft seas creep into the outer coastal waters, but at this time the extent does not warrant an SCA. Friday-Wednesday...SCA conditions are not expected through at least the weekend. A weak cold front crosses Friday with a brief wind shift to the north later in the day into Friday night. High pressure then builds across the Northeastern US over the weekend before shifting to the east early next week. As the high shifts east, south to southwest flow may approach SCA levels during the early to middle parts of next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NHZ012-013. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Combs  761 FXUS62 KCHS 081824 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions for the majority of the week. - 2) Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week with increasing rain chances Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions for the majority of the week. The heat is on across the low country with several observations on the humid side of the seabreeze approaching 110 to 113 mainly across the coastal strip. Given the rather impressive high pressure in place holding off most convection until later this afternoon, its is probably safe to say that most areas should reach at least advisory criteria and remain at advisory criteria for the remainder of the afternoon. Excessive heat conditions seem to be occurring right at or just east of the seabreeze where downright disgusting dewpoints in the upper 70s to near 80 are combining with air temps in the mid to upper 90s. The only relief from the heat will be any showers this afternoon but that might be hard to come by. Very little relief from the heat is expected tonight as lows will only drop into the upper 70s to low 80s and heat indices will likely remain in the mid to upper 90s well after midnight tonight, especially for the coastal areas. These warm overnight conditions could result in prolonged heat stress, especially for more vulnerable communities and those without adequate cooling overnight. Oppressive heat and humidity will continue Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. The ridge aloft will maintain control through the end of the week, but then starts to get suppressed to the south as west to east oriented troughing drifts in from the north over the weekend. High temperatures look quite similar each day Thursday through Saturday, with widespread upper 90s and isolated instances of triple digits. Surface winds will start off each day out of the west- southwest, allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 90s. Then the sea breeze will take hold and push mid to upper 70s dewpoints inland. The result is expected to yield the highest heat indices along the coastal corridor with values well into the 105-110 degree range and some areas into the 110-115 degree range. Further inland, heat indices should mostly top out around 105. To make conditions more uncomfortable, overnight lows will likely linger in the upper 70s, and even low 80s right along the coast. For heat headlines, the configuration of the Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning will be nearly identical to Wednesday with the only difference being Inland Berkeley as an advisory and not a warning. Then for Friday and Saturday, the footprint of the Heat Advisory will likely shrink and we might not even need an Extreme Heat Warning area. Also, convective coverage each afternoon does not look high enough to provide a significant disruption to the heat and humidity. Starting Sunday, and especially into next week, temperatures should cool off as a boundary sags into the region and supports increased rain chances and greater coverage of thunderstorms each day. KEY MESSAGE 2: Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. Satellite and radar observations this afternoon have already shown some signs of convective develop along the seabreeze, mainly north of the Charleston metro across Berkeley county. Overall guidance still remains rather weak with convective development; however, given trends and the slow progression of the seabreeze a few isolated thunderstorms should be expected over the next couple of hours. Given rather warm 850 mb tempsfrom subsidence underneath the ridge, storms may struggle and will likely focus where what outflows that do develop interact with the seabreeze. Storms should subside by early evening. The pattern should continue to support only isolated to scattered convective coverage Thursday through Saturday, due to a lack of any notable features to drive development. There will continue to be a low end threat of an isolated severe storm or locally heavy rainfall, mainly where boundary interactions occur. As we move into Sunday and next week, a pattern change looks to be on the horizon. The upper ridge is expected to get suppressed to the south as a west to east trough drops in from the north. This should bring a front into the area which will linger for a few days. Increased convective coverage is expected, which will hopefully bring beneficial rains to the area and possibly even some risk of locally excessive rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail across the area through most of the forecast. Winds have remained light out of the southwest; except behind the seabreeze where some gustier conditions to around 20 knots are possible out of the south-southwest. Combination of satellite and radar observations shows some isolated showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop along the seabreeze interface mainly in the vicinity of KCHS. Winds and storms should relax during the early evening with VFR conditions prevailing for the remainder of the overnight and morning hours. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR. There will be a low end risk of thunderstorm impacts each afternoon and evening, primarily at KCHS and KSAV. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: Overall pattern that has been in place should remain in place with south-southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts, with occasional gusts into the low 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to favor 3 to 4 ft. Thursday through Monday: The overall pattern will be on repeat Thursday through Saturday as southwest flow surges each afternoon and evening. Wind speeds should solidly reach the 15-20 knot range each day, with gusts approaching 25 knots along the SC coast and the adjacent coastal waters. Seas should mostly be in the 2-4 ft range, but could rise up to around 5 ft during times of peak surging in the evening hours. It is possible that short duration Small Craft Advisories could be needed, mainly for the SC waters and the Charleston Harbor. Then by Sunday, and especially Monday, conditions should feature lower wind speeds as a boundary drops into the area from the north. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 8: KCHS: 100/2016 KSAV: 101/2010 July 9: KCXM: 99/1986 July 10: KCHS: 100/1986 KCXM: 99/1986 KSAV: 102/1879 July 11: KCXM: 100/2001 July 12: KCXM: 97/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 8: KCXM: 83/2016 KSAV: 80/1990 July 9: KCHS: 80/1998 KCXM: 85/1998 KSAV: 80/1883 July 10: KCHS: 81/1986 KCXM: 82/1986 July 11: KCHS: 80/2016 KCXM: 82/2016 July 12: KCHS: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101-114- 115-137-216-238-240. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217>219-239-241. SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ043-044-147. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ045- 148>152. MARINE...None. && $$ Black  992 FXUS62 KTBW 081827 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 227 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are forecast for at least the rest of the week, with afternoon heat index values of over 100 expected to be near Heat Advisory levels in some spots each day. - Drier air moving into the area will limit rain chances through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Weak mid-level ridging remains over the region this afternoon while the surface ridge axis stretches across the southern Florida peninsula. Also in play for the next couple of days will be a Saharan air layer that will push west into the state, bringing drier conditions aloft and lowering rain chances. For the rest of today, we'll see scattered storms mainly east of I-75, but rain chances are basically out of the forecast entirely for Thursday. As we head toward the end of the week and into the weekend, the surface ridge will drift northward while we also get some moisture return. This will lead to a more southeasterly background wind and an increase in rain chances, with the best chances inland as the sea breeze moves eastward each afternoon. Rain chances increase further for early next week as a frontal boundary stalls over north Florida. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected. A few storms will be near KLAL this afternoon, but otherwise TAF sites are expected to be rain-free through tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure will keep light winds in place for the next several days with no headlines expected. Rain chances remain low through tomorrow, then gradually increase starting Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Rain chances will remain limited over the next couple of days with relatively drier air in place. Fire weather concerns are low, however, as relative humidity values will still remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 96 81 96 / 10 10 0 40 FMY 78 97 78 97 / 10 10 10 70 GIF 77 97 76 97 / 20 10 0 30 SRQ 79 95 79 96 / 0 0 0 60 BKV 75 97 76 98 / 10 10 0 20 SPG 81 95 81 96 / 0 10 0 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Carlisle  913 FXUS64 KHUN 081826 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 126 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Convection has finally started popping across the TN Valley with greater coverage currently in NW AL. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening and capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Once storms dissipate later this evening, winds will slack to become light and variable. With all the moisture in place, this will allow for patchy fog development. Fog coverage could increase if cloud cover decreases further than forecasted. Lows will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 On Thursday, that open wave will weaken and continue to lift northeastward but the stationary boundary that scooted southward may stall over the TN Valley. This will bring low to medium chances (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. These storms can create gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However, would not rule out a downburst with the PWATS ~1.6", DCAPE ~1300 J/Kg, ML CAPE 1600-1900 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees. SPC has placed us in a Marginal outlook (risk level 1/5) on Friday. A weak trough will be along the eastern seaboard with a few weak disturbances sliding through ahead of a shortwave up in the Midwest. Friday afternoon and evening forecast soundings look even better for an opportunity to see downbursts. Instability will increase towards 3,000 J/kg, PWATS ~1.8, ThetaE difference ~30C and pretty steep low level lapse rates. Local strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the primary hazards. Looking into Saturday, forecast soundings suggest another potential afternoon and evening with storms that could produce downbursts. The storms may be the main story, however do not forget about the heat. Heat index values Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Stay weather aware Thursday through Saturday and ensure you stay safe indoors, outdoors, and on the go. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures will be near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much of a threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration. Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may also result in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Daytime heating of a moist airmass has in part lead to the development of isolated showers across the area. Cell movement was east around 10kt. Additional shower and thunderstorm formation should occur across the Tenn Valley this afternoon into the evening. Given move activity was in progress more to the west, have higher confidence of convection impacting KMSL, so have a TEMPO (~50% PoPs) in for afternoon storms. Lesser rain chances (~30%) will be realized at KHSV so maintained PROB30 concerning convection. Although in the TAFs have CIG/VSBY reductions to MVFR, brief lower values cannot be ruled out due to the heavier showers and/or stronger storms, along with erratic gusty winds. Shower activity should end this evening. Fog development also cannot be ruled out in the late night, and would be more prevalent in/near areas that received wetting rainfall. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....JMS LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RSB  852 FXUS64 KMOB 081826 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 126 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. - A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper trough extending from the lower Great Lakes to east Texas has an embedded cutoff low centered over the confluence of Ohio and Mississippi rivers visible on water vapor imagery. This trough will lift northeastward and diminish through Thursday morning as it gets caught up in increasingly westerlies. An upper ridge over Florida, a small portion of the southeast states, and the eastern Gulf will persist into the weekend as a series of weak shortwaves pass over the Ohio River region. The upper ridge will get nudged westward over the weekend as a stronger shortwave dives southeastward from the Ohio River to the eastern seaboard with a large upper high building over the central U.S. putting our region under northwest flow aloft. A weak surface low is expected to develop offshore on Monday under the trough and send a backdoor surface cool front into the region late Monday night. The diurnal pattern continues through the near term with isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each day as a seabreeze pushes inland and dissipates through mid- evening. Rain chances will increase to 30-50% on Saturday, followed by scattered to numerous coverage on Sunday and numerous to widespread coverage on Monday. As with all summertime convection, instances of stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty surface winds and locally heavy downpours can be expected. High temperatures the rest of the week will average just above normal, with lows about 4 to 9 degrees above normal. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 72 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with isolated short-duration instances as high as 110 degrees. /22 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Afternoon thunderstorms are unlikely, but cannot be ruled out. /73 && .MARINE... Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 40 Pensacola 79 93 79 92 / 10 30 20 30 Destin 81 92 81 91 / 20 20 20 30 Evergreen 74 94 74 93 / 10 40 10 50 Waynesboro 74 95 74 94 / 20 30 10 20 Camden 74 93 75 93 / 10 40 10 30 Crestview 75 95 75 93 / 10 30 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  118 FXUS64 KAMA 081828 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 128 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Hot temperatures continue to hold for the Panhandles with potential to see triple-digit temperatures this afternoon and Thursday. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to return starting tonight in the northwest, with activity possible clear into the weekend. - A dry and hot pattern may return next week with high pressure looking to settle over the Central and Northern Great Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The beginning of a pattern shift is expected today as models see an upper-level trough try to force it way east out of the Alaska Region. In doing this the trough will force the upper-level ridge and its associated high pressure to retreat southwest out the Panhandles. This retreat will then open us up to better potential for showers and thunderstorms this evening as the first or many short-waves push across. Currently the best chances are mostly across the Northwest, however early morning runs of the CAMs have seen some storms extend further south than initially expected with some low chances (10 to 15 percent) of reaching the I-40 corridor this evening. As for Thursday, model agreement continues to see a much stronger short-wave push through leading much better chances (30 to 50 percent) of showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Panhandles that evening and night. What we will need to be monitor, however, is the potential for lingering boundaries from today’s activity. If these boundaries can stay within the Panhandles, then it is possible for activity to start much earlier and further south then present forecasts have. In terms of potential impacts for today and Thursday, most model soundings have see us struggle in terms of instability with any CAPE values struggling to reach 1000 J/kg for both days across our north. However, those same models are showing decent inverted V style soundings with DCAPE upwards 1700 to 1900 J/kg. With this signal present, it would possible to see thunderstorms capable of producing outflow wind gusts upwards of 70 mph, especially in the north where both chances and DCAPE are at their best. However if we can get storms to spread further south Thursday, then there is some slightly better CAPE and moisture to work with that could result in large hail and localized minor flooding concerns for the day. Meanwhile the south will also have to deal with the potential impact of warmer than expected temperatures for both days. While normally this would not be much of a concern, this slight increase could result in much of the south reaching or nearing the triple digit mark for both afternoons. In some of our hotter locations, like the Palo Duro Canyon, these hotter temperature can be amplified to the point that a heat related product may be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 As we progress towards the end of the week, model do see the retreat of the high holding which will allow for the Panhandles to fall back into a more northwesterly to zonal upper-level flow pattern. This patter is more ideal in opening us up to more short- wave activity pushing through clear into the weekend. As it stands, present model runs have been keeping chances of showers and thunderstorms present each day. Friday in particular, continues to trend as best chances (30 to 50 percent) for showers and thunderstorms with models depicting more potent short-waves pushing across the Central Great Plains that afternoon. Of course the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could be present each day, with current CAMs seeing much better CAPE values present for Friday. Regardless, still lingering high pressure to our southwest will look to keep temperatures hot with most locations looking to stay in the mid to upper 90s for the rest of the week. However in some of our locations like the Palo Duro Canyon and Canadian River Valley, the terrain influence could see temperatures rise to much more. This potential will only look to increase as we near Sunday with many of the models seeing the ridge and its upper-level high return and push further north into the Great Plains for most of next week. While this push may briefly help push storms chances further south on for the weekend, the Panhandles could be in for a hot and dry week, should the pattern hold into the next work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 As of this afternoon, dry conditions are still holding with all terminals reporting VFR conditions. However, a shortwave is expected to push across the Panhandles later this evening that could produce showers and thunderstorms across most of the Northern Panhandles. Currently impacts are more likely for KDHT and KGUY, with timing from CAMS seeing it more likely after 00 UTC. The main threat from these storms is more likely to be strong to damaging winds, through brief pockets of heavy rainfall and small hail can't be fully ruled. Meanwhile, KAMA is very unlikely to see impacts from storms this evening, with only a couple of CAMS giving us around a 10% chance of anything developing. Otherwise, storms looked to weaken around the midnight time frame, with VFR conditions looking to return not long after. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11  138 FXUS64 KBRO 081828 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 128 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 114 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 * Hot summer conditions continue through the week. Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk each day, mainly in the Valley becoming more widespread this weekend. Heat indices will climb to between 100 and 110 degrees each day. * Daily rain and thunderstorm chances will increase from 10-25% Wednesday/Thursday to 25-40% Friday/Saturday. While severe weather is not expected, any storms that develop are capable of heavy to torrential rainfall, gusty winds and small hail. * There is generally a low risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Our region is currently sandwiched between an area of upper level low pressure across Central Mexico and another area of upper level low across the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley. In other words, Deep South Texas is situated within a narrow corridor of upper level ridge. Latest suite of hi-res and global guidance remain in agreement that the generally benign weather should continue through Thursday morning, with shower and thunderstorms coverage remaining isolated to widely scattered and transient in nature. Earlier this morning, composite radar and visible satellite shows an area of disorganized convection moving northwards from Tamaulipas and falling apart as it approaches the international border. Surface obs also indicate drier air from the top of the boundary layer mixing down, with mostly to partly sunny skies prevailing away from the coast and dew points falling into the low 70s from upper 70s. PWAT values are about 1.8 inches, which is around the 75th percentile of SPC sounding climatology for our area. While there is negligible shear to get storms organized, any storms that do develop is capable of locally heavy downpours, gusty winds and even small hail. Otherwise, chance of showers and thunderstorms increase from 10-25 percent today/Thursday to 25-40 percent for Friday/Saturday. This is because a surge of tropical moisture looks to approach our region from the southeast by Thursday and certainly into Friday. PWATs increase to between 2 to 2.2 inches, which is 90-95th percentile of sounding climatology for the Brownsville, TX upper air site. Currently, there are no excessive rainfall outlooks from WPC for our area due to low confidence in flash flooding but this is something to monitor in the coming days. 1-hour Flash Flood Guidance across the RGV is quite high, with 2.5 to 3.5 inches per hour according to WGRFC owing to the fact that it has been over three weeks since our last widespread rainfall. One thing to note is that while the official forecast might indicate a lack of area wide significant rainfall, such an environment is capable of producing highly efficient rainfall rates with locally quick couple of inches of rainfall in just 30 to 45 minutes. It is almost impossible to pinpoint exactly where ahead of time, however, given the isolated to widely scattered nature of the showers and thunderstorms. In the absence of shear, the main triggers for locally heavy rainfall and isolated storms will be the sea breeze and local outflow boundaries, which can be quite messy in a weakly forced environment. Bottom line, if you do have outdoor plans, please keep an eye to the sky and be ready to go indoors if thunder roars. Drier weather looks to return for Sunday into early next week. Early indications are that rain chances would increase towards middle part of next week as a cold front approaches from the north but confidence is low this far out. Looking at the CPC 6-10 day outlook, there is a 40-50 percent probability of above normal rainfall and 33-50 percent probability of above normal temperatures for our CWA. Typical mid-summer temperatures into the mid to upper 90s for most inland locations continue, with a cooler beach and warmer brush country. Expect a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through much of the forecast period, with brief relief where clouds, showers, or thunderstorms can develop. Combined with the oppressive humidity with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, heat index values are expected to top out in the 105-110 range away from the coast. Long period swell increases into the weekend and early next week offshore, potentially bringing a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents along the lower Texas coast. Astronomical tides build this weekend as we near the New Moon, which may narrow already narrow beaches at high tide cycles this weekend into next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR is anticipated at the terminals through the next 12 to 18 hours. Breezy south-southeast or southerly winds with 15-20 kt gusts at times during the daylight hours will become light for the nighttime. Clear to partly cloudy skies will also prevail through Thursday 12z. Towards the end of the TAF period, the probability of MVFR conditions increase as chance for diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms increase by mid day Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Light to moderate south-southeasterly winds continue across the coastal waters through most of the forecast period with strong high pressure northwest of the Gulf. The only exception will be during periods of thunderstorms, where brief periods of strong wind gusts along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible especially during the afternoon hours. Expect an afternoon chop each day on the bay, with Gulf seas of generally 2 to 3 feet, gradually building towards 3 to 4 feet late this weekend into next week with longer period swells. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 93 79 93 / 0 20 30 30 HARLINGEN 75 94 76 94 / 0 20 20 30 MCALLEN 77 97 79 97 / 0 20 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 97 77 97 / 0 20 0 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 81 87 / 0 30 40 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 91 78 91 / 0 20 30 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...88-Chai LONG TERM....88-Chai AVIATION...88-Chai  455 FXUS63 KMQT 081831 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 231 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers continue and/or redevelop this afternoon and evening, becoming most widespread over the southern half of the UP. A couple of stronger storms resulting in gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out over the south-central UP. - Temperatures will remain closer to normal through the mid-week, and start to increase by the weekend. Highs around 90 are becoming more likely Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Early afternoon water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show quasi- zonal flow over the upper Great Lakes with a good deal of coincident moisture, sampled by 12Z KMPX RAOB with a 1.71 in PWAT. Upstream vorticity maxima are located over SW Ontario and the western Dakotas. Subtle NE/SW oriented low-level wind shift boundary is located roughly from western Marquette County through central Gogebic County. It is upon this boundary that we will have to watch for convective redevelopment this afternoon. With weak midlevel lapse rates, any instability will have to be generated from diurnal heating, which is a question mark given the extensive cloud cover across the region. There are some breaks in the cloud cover, and SBCAPE around the WI border region could approach 1000 J/kg should these breaks continue. With strong effective bulk shear around 40 kt, some more organized convection cannot be ruled out from mid- afternoon into the evening, especially for Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta Counties, where strong wind gusts would be the main threat. Given the moist atmosphere and tendency for the low-level boundary to be parallel to the cloud- layer winds, some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, exemplified by the 12Z HREF LPMM showing values in excess of 2" in 6 hours (representing possible local max amounts). Upstream vorticity maxima continue to push through tonight, allowing the low-level boundary and deeper moisture to settle south of the area. While showers and a few storms could linger over Menominee County for the first part of the night, high pressure building from the north will result in dry weather elsewhere with patchy fog possible. Synoptic-scale subsidence is favored for Thu/Fri with seasonable temps. This weekend into early next week, anomalous midlevel anticyclone over the Four Corners region will build into the northern Plains by early next week. Impressive 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam are modeled by early next week over the northern Plains, +2 to +3 sigma as we approach the hottest time of the year. 850 mb temps in the low to possibly mid-20s (C) are similarly impressive. The upshot is growing confidence in a period of highs approaching or exceeding 90F Sunday through Tuesday. It does appear that humidity will be less of an additive factor to the apparent temps than the previous heat spell at the end of June/early July, as low-level trajectories will have more of a westerly/downsloping component off the high plains. Given the lack of deep-layer moisture and positioning downstream of the apex of the ridge, convective potential is fairly low until probably Tuesday, when there are indications of a possible backdoor front/ridge rider. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 231 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 General trend for IWD and CMX is improving conditions to VFR into the evening hours before deteriorating due to fog by Thursday morning. For SAW, showers and higher probabilities of lower ceilings earlier in the evening lead to improvement only to MVFR before deteriorating due to fog. At IWD, visbility has improved from LIFR to VFR in the past two hours, and LIFR ceilings are expectedto lift to MVFR by 23Z as showers clear out. Similar at CMX; current VFR conditions should persist until around 04Z. SAW currently has greatest probabilities of IFR ceilings with ongoing showers, which are expected to run into fog in the morning. Recent rainfall and light winds at all three sites are expected to lead to fog prior to sunrise; LAMP probabilities of LIFR ceilings and visibility are increasing with more recent model runs, lending confidence to fog solution. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure building over the lake in the wake of a weak frontal boundary will maintain light winds through at least Saturday. Rain showers may lead to areas of fog through at least Thursday morning. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out this evening, especially closer to the shoreline, but overall potential is low. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thompson AVIATION...RE MARINE...Thompson  282 FXUS65 KBOU 081830 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1230 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with a few strong to severe storms over the eastern plains. - Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Thursday, with the severe threat possibly expanding west to the Front Range. - Prolonged period of hot temperatures arrive Saturday, lasting through at least Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances remain low during this period. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warm, dry, and gusty west winds prevail along and west of I-25. Mid level moisture and a weak wave will help produce isolated/scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph possible with this activity. Radar shows a boundary across Weld County where west/northwest winds meet the northeast winds. East of this boundary, the northeast winds are ushering in moisture with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The main severe weather threat today is east of the boundary. In addition to much better moisture, ML CAPE reaches 500-1500J/kg. Main threat will be gusty outflow winds up to 70 mph, but a few storms could produce severe hail as well. Storms will progress eastward across the plains, exiting the area this evening.  A few overnight showers will also be possible over the mountains where a weak wave will track. For Thursday, the pattern will generally be the same with a few slight differences. We'll see stronger westerly flow aloft Thursday as a speed max passes over the area. Better moisture is expected to push westward, but there is some uncertainty just how far west it will be. Where better moisture resides, we'll see MLCAPE of 1000-2000J/kg and plenty of shear for severe thunderstorms. The initial storms are expected to form over the higher terrain. Storms should increase in strength and coverage as they travel eastward, encountering better instability and moisture. High-Res models favor a couple line segments. or possibly one large line tracking across the eastern plains during the afternoon and early evenings hours, favoring a strong wind threat.   Upper level ridge off to the southwest begins to strengthen Friday. Flow aloft weakens and turns to the northwest. Low level flow will continue to be easterly, helping to hold onto better moisture across the plains and possibly as far west as the urban corridor. Expect another round of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms to track across the urban corridor and eastern plains.   For Saturday through Wednesday...the upper level high builds northward and will be centered over the Central and Southern Rockies Saturday. Temperatures will warm into the mid 90s across northeast Colorado. Easterly low level winds may help hold some moisture across eastern Colorado, however warm air aloft is expected to cap the atmosphere, and prevent storms from forming. The upper level high lifts northward and then remains semi- stationary over the north central part of the country through the middle of next week. Very warm temperatures are expected with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. Easterly low level flow will prevail during this period and provide just enough cooling to prevent widespread low 100 degree heat from occurring. These east winds likely hold in enough moisture to limit the fire weather threat as well. Very warm air aloft continues to cap the atmosphere. Can't rule out a few thunderstorms over the higher terrain early to mid next week. Steering winds will be from the east, meaning storms will have a westerly component when they develop. This will keep the urban corridor dry this weekend and for most (perhaps all)of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. North winds may briefly be gusty this afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots possible at DEN and APA and 30 knots at BJC. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop after 19Z with strong outflow winds that could potentially reach 45 knots at DEN and APA. After these storms move out of the area, southeast winds are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening. There will generally be light winds tonight with drainage flow although a weak boundary may bring north winds at all terminals by 10-12Z. Thursday looks similar to today with afternoon showers and storms producing strong outflow winds up to 45 knots. The most likely timing for storms is between 20-23Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...Danielson  609 FXUS65 KRIW 081832 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1232 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures through the afternoon and early evening with best chances for stronger thunderstorms with 20-30% coverage across southern Sweetwater and up to northern Johnson County. Gusty outflow winds up to 45 to 55 mph the main threat between 1300-1900L. - Warming trend through the weekend with a downward trend for thunderstorm activity. - The hottest weather over the year and potentially in some time arrives this weekend, with some all time record high temperatures possible. The best chance all time record high temperatures will be on Sunday afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 More clearing from the overnight hours than yesterday that will give way to a bit better instability from Sweetwater to Natrona Counties. Radar is starting to increase in activity off the Uintas that will eventually push into southern Sweetwater County in the next hour and expand north and east through the remainder of the afternoon. Eastern Fremont to Natrona Counties will be of concern from 1600-1800L pushing east of the CWA by 1900L. The other area of note continues to be Johnson County for later in the afternoon before sunset with storms coming in off the Bighorns from Montana. However, the instability may not be quite as high with HiRes models completely missing the early morning convection that rolled in from Yellowstone straight east into Johnson County that looks to be finally dissipating as it moves into eastern portions of the county. Main threats still will be outflow winds as per usual over 50 mph being possible. Dewpoint depressions don't look quite as good as yesterday but severe gusts always still possible, even with the green blobs out of radar range. Heat still on for the weekend into next week with NBM still pinging the widespread triple digits, stay tuned! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 I have a question for you this morning. What do these things have in common: gas pressure and volume, supply and demand and speed and travel time. If you answered inverse relationships, you would be right. And that is what we will have over the next week, as the temperature goes up, the chance of convection goes down. Today will be somewhat similar to yesterday. Another shortwave will be moving through the area. We also continue to have fairy steep low and mid level lapse rates. Instability values are also decent, with some portions of the area (mainly the northeastern portions of the area) having over 1000 J/Kg of CAPE and lifted indices as low as minus 5. There will be one difference though, and this will be a trend over the next few days. And that is that precipitable water values are a lower than yesterday, especially West of the Divide. But even East of the Divide, values are 10 to 20 percent lower. It is still around 130 percent of normal though. As a result, it will be another day anywhere from a 1 in 5 to 2 out of 5 chance of a shower or thunderstorm, with the best chance in the afternoon and evening and across northern and far southern Wyoming. The lowest chance will be across the west with less than a 1 in 10 chance. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, near to somewhat above normal. As for any stronger storms, the best chance would be over Johnson County where there is a marginal risk, with strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail the main threats. Strong wind gusts will be a threat with any shower or thunderstorm though, even further west where dew point depressions will be larger. The downward trend in convection continues on Thursday as drier works a little further east. There will still be some convection around, but most would be confined to East of the Divide again and especially in Johnson and Natrona Counties where the deepest moisture will remain. Temperatures look largely similar to today. The inverse relationship really begins on Friday as ridging over the desert southwest begins to push northward with rising heights and temperatures aloft. This is the day when below normal precipitable waters will push across the entire area. We can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm, mainly over the northern mountains, but even here the chance is less than 1 out of 5. Temperatures will also begin to really rise, with the normally warmer spots seeing high temperatures approaching 100. It is Saturday when we really begin to throw some coal into the blast furnace, otherwise known as a death ridge. Heights across the area will climb to over 5950 meters at 500 millibars, and bring definitely the hottest weather of the year. The NBM ensemble gives a greater than 1 out of 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees in locations 5200 feet or below, with a nearly 100 percent chance in the warmer spots likely from Thermopolis up to Greybull. All locations below 6500 feet have a 4 out of 5 chance of temperatures over 90 degrees. Some records will likely fall on this day. With the dry air in place and warm temperatures aloft, the chance of convection looks just about nil. However, the heat looks to peak on Monday. This mornings guidance shows 700 millibar temperatures climbing as high as 24 degrees celsius. This combined with nearly full sunshine will lead to one of the hottest days in quite a while. Ensemble guidance shows a nearly 100 percent chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees below 5500 feet, and places like Rock Springs, Green River and even Jackson have a greater than 1 out 3 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees. When we go up to 105 degrees, ensemble guidance gives a greater than 4 out of 5 chance of this from Thermopolis to Greybull, with Riverton even having a 1 out of 2 chance. And going up even further, to 110, there is a 2 out of 5 chance a place like Greybull or Worland could reach this temperature. We could see some all time high temperatures fall on this day as the 5980 500 millibar ridge will be centered just about over Wyoming. We should begin to take a couple of degrees off of the highs on Monday as the ridge retreats to the east just a bit. However, most areas below 5500 feet will again have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees. And with the ridge moving East, some moisture, mainly of the mid level variety will begin to come around the back side of the ridge. A couple of storms are possible on Monday, but chances increase more on Tuesday and into Wednesday. With the low levels remaining rather dry, these thunderstorms would produce more wind than rain though. Convection should be on the isolated side though with most locations not seeing one on any given day. Temperatures will drop somewhat from the blast furnace levels of the weekend, but look to remain above normal through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Multiple weak shortwaves will work their way east across/near Wyoming within zonal flow aloft Wednesday. One wave was cruising across southern Montana, while another was approaching northern Utah accompanied by an ACCAS field late Wednesday morning. These waves combine with mid-level moisture to again produce afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms. PROB30 groups are included for most terminals, with activity favored over/near KRKS, KCOD, and KWRL. Temperature-dew point spreads increase Wednesday afternoon leading to the primary hazard being gusty outflow wind 35-45kts. The more robust storms could still produce a very brief, less than 30-minute, period of MVFR visibility. The best chance would be east of the Continental Divide where moisture profiles would be more favorable. Deeper convection wanes around sunset tonight, but enough mid-level moisture remains to allow for lingering light showers overnight, mainly across the south. Other than convective outflows, gusty westerly surface wind 10-20kts blows during the afternoon and early evening at terminals west of the Divide. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...CNJ  714 FXUS64 KSJT 081833 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 133 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and dry conditions return for today though Friday with afternoon highs near or above the 100 degree mark. - Low to medium (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Early this afternoon skies were partly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds were generally from the south at 5 to 15 MPH. At the upper levels a 593dam ridge remains in place over the Desert Southwest and west Texas. Meanwhile, a warm and somewhat humid airmass was over west central Texas with dewpoints around 60. The ridge will continue to strengthen and expand eastward through tomorrow which should allow rain chances to be near zero everywhere today and Thursday. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s to around 100 each afternoon. An area of surface low pressure will move eastward through the central Plains tomorrow. As a result, winds will be slightly more out of the southwest and around 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 25. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper-level ridge will continue to be the predominant weather feature on Friday. This means hot and dry conditions will persist across the region with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Conditions should remain below Heat Advisory criteria. Looking ahead to this weekend, models remain in good agreement that the ridge will shift to the northern Plains and strengthen. Meanwhile an area of mid-level vorticity will rotate around the base of this ridge into the southern Plains. The low-level flow should become more southeasterly during this time and advect more gulf moisture into west central Texas. As a result, this should lead to a more unsettled pattern across the region with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms especially Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas this afternoon. A few very isolated showers remain possible but given the very limited coverage, will not include at this time. Otherwise, south winds will continue and will continue to be gusty during daylight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 75 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 74 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 76 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 73 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 73 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...07  797 FXUS65 KVEF 081835 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1135 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday. High pressure will gradually build into the area over the next few days from the west. The center of the high will push across Nevada on Friday night and then move near the Four Corners on Saturday which will begin to open the door to monsoonal moisture. More on that later. In the meantime, above normal temperatures will be the rule. We will be very close to or at 110 for high temperatures in Las Vegas through Saturday. We have not hit 110 yet this year and on average we reach that level about 10 times per year. As the moisture builds into the region aloft, the chance of thunderstorms will also increase. With isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday although instability, if any will be quite limited, and then more scattered coverage on Monday. The moisture increase will mainly be in the mid and upper levels initially and that will keep the main concerns with any thunderstorms being dry lightning and strong and gusty winds. Moisture will likely be with us for much of the week and any additional details with respect to thunderstorm activity will become better resolved over the next few days. The increased moisture will however, reduce our high temperatures by several degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds will shift to the southwest early in the forecast period, increasing to around 10-15KT with gusts to 20-25KT through the afternoon. Gusts are expected to diminish quickly after sunset with the loss of heating, with winds becoming light and variable by daybreak. Following a similar pattern on Thursday, winds shift to the southeast by mid-morning, then veer to the southwest during the afternoon with another round of gusts to 20-25KT expected thereafter. VFR conditions with clear skies will continue, with a high temperature of 109F and temperatures exceeding 100F through 04Z this evening, and again on Thursday after 18Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds across much of the region will shift to the south- southwest this afternoon, with gusts to 20-25KT common through sunset. An exception to this will be in the northern Owens Valley including KBIH, where winds generally follow daily patterns until mid-afternoon, when a push of westerly winds around 10-15KT is expected through sunset, followed by a northeasterly shift before winds become light and settle out of the northwest overnight. At KDAG in the western Mojave Desert, winds generally remain westerly, with periodic gusts to around 25KT through midnight. Tonight, winds become lighter across the area, with another round of elevated/gusty southerly to southwesterly winds developing late in the period. VFR conditions with no operationally significant cloud cover will continue. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Czyzyk AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  842 FXAK67 PAJK 081836 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1036 AM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .UPDATE...To the aviation section following the 18Z TAF issuance... && .AVIATION...An approaching front from a Gulf low will bring moderate to heavy showers to the southern panhandle this afternoon and evening, lowering CIGs and VSBYs into low end MVFR with potential brief drops to IFR during passing showers. These showers could push as far north as PAGS and PAJN into the afternoon. A steady downward trend is expected throughout the day, and conditions across the southern panhandle are unlikely to improve before tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the northern panhandle will experience minimal impacts from this system, likely remaining VFR through today. Winds will generally blow out of the SE ahead of the front, keeping many sites across the panhandle breezy through this evening. A tighter southerly pressure gradient will bring particularly breezy conditions to the PAGY area, while PAKT should be monitored for gusts around 15-20 kts from this afternoon through the end of the TAF period. LLWS is not expected to be a significant concern during this frontal passage. && SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Active weather continues as another front moves into the central and southern panhandle through this evening - Heavier showers are expected for the far southern panhandle with a slight chance (15%) of thunderstorm development - Elevated winds across the panhandle due to tightening pressure gradient, becoming gusty as showers pass through SHORT TERM.../through Friday/...A weakening low in the eastern gulf has become disconnected from its upper level support, with most associated shower activity further east over Sumner Strait and Frederick Sound as of this discussion. This feature should gradually drift eastward before eventually being overtaken by an approaching frontal wave from the south later in the day today. This approaching wave will bring further enhanced shower activity from south to north, expected to reach Frederick Sound and central Chatham Strait, though scattered showers remain possible for the inner channels as far north as Gustavus and Juneau. Though precipitation totals are not expected to be as high as the the system at the start of this week, heavier showers are expected for the far southern panhandle with a slight chance of thunderstorm development through this afternoon. Even without lightning, heavier showers could bring significant drops in visibility and gusty erratic winds which could be hazardous to boaters caught unprepared. The far northern gulf and inner channels look to remain fairly dry for this same period, though for the northern gulf coast this could lead to some patchy fog Thursday morning, as Yakutat cleared out in the early morning today just in time for shallow fog to move in briefly. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably warm through the period, with slightly warmer temperatures up north away from aforementioned showers and associated cloud cover today and Thursday. Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week, with a wave originating in Canada pushing showers into the northern panhandle Friday. Stay tuned for updates today and Thursday on how things will play out heading into the weekend. LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/...After the low pressure on Thursday brings a front across the southern half of the panhandle, this low will move southeastward and dissipate quickly as it gets near Haida Gwaii overnight into Friday morning. The remnants of this low will keep some precipitation chances into the morning for the far southern panhandle Friday. As for the northern panhandle, a low to the NE of the panhandle in Canada will bring a band of showers southeastward Friday. The timing and extent of this easterly wave is still uncertain at this time, associated with some disagreement on the timing of a shortwave and upper level band of vorticity moving through the area around the upper level low in Canada, and the overall presence of the upper level low into the end of the week as some ridging attempts to build over the interior and Yukon. The confidence as of now is for the wave to push through the northern panhandle from Skagway and Haines down Lynn Canal through Friday morning, into the central panhandle by the afternoon hours, before just grazing the coastal mountains of the southern panhandle by the evening. This uncertain pattern continues into the weekend as the possibility of some weak easterly waves impacting the panhandle lasts through Sunday night with this main low sitting to the NE. None of these waves appear to have as much confidence past Friday's shortwave, but with the ridging building over the Gulf and panhandle into this weekend, the chances for drier weather and breaks in the cloud cover is higher for this weekend across much of the panhandle as this more benign pattern sets in. MARINE... Inside Waters(Southeast Alaskan Inner Channels): A low with its associated front will push its way northeastward into the Southern Inner Channels this afternoon into Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 25 kt for the tonight period for the Dixon Entrance & southern Clarence Strait before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. The rest of the Inner Channels should remain around 20 kt or less during the same timeframe. Then, the pressure gradient relaxes & winds & seas calm as a ridge of high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday. Outside Waters(Eastern Gulf of Alaska): A low with its associated front will push its way northeastward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska late this morning into Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 20-25 kt along the front just to the northeast of the low center tonight over the east-central & southeastern Gulf before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. Expect 7 to 9 ft seas over the aforementioned region through Thursday evening. Then, the pressure gradient relaxes & winds & seas appreciably calm as a ridge of high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-662-663. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...Contino AVIATION...BAS MARINE...JLC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  878 FXUS63 KOAX 081837 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 137 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - |Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight. The main hazards will be strong winds, hail, and localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. - A few showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through Friday across the region. - A pattern shift Saturday will bring a return of the heat on Sunday and into the extended forecast. Widespread highs in the 90s and lows in the 60s and 70s are expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers and a few weak thunderstorms have fired up along a cold front and are currently moving across northeastern Nebraska/northwestern Iowa. This activity is expected to continue over the next few hours. Heading into the evening, models are showing a line of thunderstorms developing along the cold front. MLCAPE values of 2500+ are expected along with DCAPE values of 1000+, particularly for areas extending from along and south of a line from Fremont to Utica. A few single thunderstorms will eventually congeal into a line as it moves southeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected with wind, hail, and localized flooding be the main concerns. Precipitable water values are in the 1.4-1.7" range, so any storms that are able to get going could be efficient rain makers. Right now, the best chance for strong storms will be after 7pm. Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight. A few showers/storms may linger into the morning Thursday, before tapering off by early afternoon. Enjoy the cooler temperatures as highs reach the mid-80s for most locations. Afternoon high temperatures will be dependent on how soon the rain and clouds clear out. A quicker exit would allow us to warm slightly higher than forecasted temperatures, while a delayed exit would result in cooler temps. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures, dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s, so it will feel pretty muggy. A shortwave trough moves across the region Thursday afternoon/evening, bringing a chance for a few additional showers and storms. Friday will bring more relief from the heat as highs climb into the low to mid-80s. However, dewpoints will once again be in the 60s and 70s, so it will feel pretty muggy. Another shortwave trough slides across eastern Nebraska Friday afternoon, bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday through the rest of the extended forecast: An upper ridge builds over the region with surface high pressure centered over Iowa and Illinois. While we will have a break from the thunderstorms, the heat is expected to return. The CPC is showing that there is a good chance of above normal temperatures occurring across the Midwest and Great Plains in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Sunday highs will reach into the 80s and low 90s. Heading into the start of next week, widespread 90s will return. Lows will be in the low 70s several nights. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 KOFK: Expect VFR conditions through much of the period at the terminal. A thunderstorm has developed northeast of Albion and is moving ESE. A few additional showers are beginning to pop up across northern Nebraska. There is a brief period where a thunderstorm may impact be in the vicinity of the terminal at the start of the TAF time. Additional chances for showers and a few storms are expected by 23Z, with the best chance after 02Z. Expect winds to become northerly around 5-10kts this evening. KOMA: VFR conditions are expected for much of the period at the terminal. There are a few light showers/storms that have developed across northern Nebraska. These should stay clear of the terminal. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected by around 03Z. Any storms that develop will have the potential of producing some strong winds and possibly some hail. A few lingering showers/storms will be possible after 06Z; however, confidence in coverage across the area after this time is a little less certain. Southerly winds shift to the east this evening before becoming northerly by 12Z. KLNK: VFR conditions are expected for much of the period at the terminals. Expect southerly winds this afternoon into early evening, transitioning to easterly after 07Z and becoming northerly by 13Z. There is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this evening, mainly after 03Z. The main concerns with any storms will be strong winds and some hail. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...ANW  904 FXUS62 KKEY 081838 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 238 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Saharan Air Layer is moving across the Florida Keys. The SAL is on track to lift out of the Keys by the weekend. - Heat will be the primary weather concern this week. Heat indices may creep towards 110 before the weekend. - Shower coverage is expected to increase at the end of the week while a low in the upper atmosphere tracks westward across the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The Saharan Air Layer reduced shower and cloud coverage considerably across the Florida Keys coastal waters this afternoon. KBYX radar scans highlighted stray, fast moving showers around the Keys. Gusts near showers that were able to form generated gusts capable of 20 knots. Breezes are gradually increasing from light to gentle to gentle to moderate across the Florida Keys waters as the Atlantic ridge strengthens slightly and lifts north towards central Florida. Thus, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for the Bayside and Gulfside waters, Hawk Channel, and the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, winds will trend upwards over the next couple of days as the Atlantic ridge across Central Florida strengthens. Light to gentle breezes will become moderate to fresh during the evening hours. Winds will tend to peak in the evenings and lull slightly during the day. At least marine cautions will be required to most Keys waters over the next few days. Breezes are expected to ease back gradually through the weekend. Shower and thunder chances will be slight or less over the next few days, but trend sharply upwards late in the week as a weak low level trough pushes westward across our area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH. Dust from the Saharan Air Layer will reduce VIS slightly at both terminals, but it is unlikely MVFR VIS will develop unless a stray shower moves over the terminal. Near surface winds will steadily increase during the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The Atlantic ridge will remain across Central Florida and help drive moderate east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys. A few hours of breezy conditions will be likely in the very late afternoon and evening hours and tend to lull during the day. Forecast soundings indicate a healthy dose of lower level inhibition and drying based just above 900 mb. This should help to keep rain and thunder chances slight to nil over the next couple of days. Expect highs to remain near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Rather humid conditions will persist due to dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Through the latter portion of the week and into the weekend, a cut off upper low will wobble its way westward across the Central Bahamas and into Cuba. An associated lower level trough is still expected to work its way across our general area late in the work week and the start of the weekend. While guidance has been trending weaker with the inverted trough, they still depict subtle and messy lower level troughing and associated swathes of increasing moisture. Expect rain and thunder chances to pick up Thursday night and lingering into the weekend. Winds should trend downwards slightly through this period as the surface ridge lifts further northward and weakens slightly. The lower levels are expected to dry out considerably beginning in the second half of the weekend, allowing rain and thunder chances to come down. Weakening ridging will try to hold on across the Florida Peninsula and keep breezes generally gentle to moderate east to southeasterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 91 83 91 / 10 0 20 30 Marathon 84 90 83 90 / 0 0 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  916 FXUS63 KJKL 081838 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 238 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - There is a high chance of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is expected at times through the first half of this weekend, with a threat of isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. - A Flood Watch has been issued for flash flood potential across the area, and is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Saturday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A Flood Watch has been issued from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for the growing potential for more widespread instances of flash flooding. Before then, from this afternoon through Thursday morning, isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible with any localized excessive rainfall from slow- moving and/or training showers and thunderstorms. Hourly PoPs were generally expanded and increased from the prior forecast for the remainder of today and tonight, with little other needed changes to the grids at this time in the near term. UPDATE Issued at 930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 The Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire, with satellite imagery showing fog and low stratus burning off fairly rapidly. Primary update was to trend higher with Sky cover, utilizing more of a blend of models. Otherwise, updates to hourly T/Td grids were made in the near term, with the latest observations used to initialize the NDFD database. UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Almost a repeat of yesterday morning with a need for a Dense Fog Advisory, though it seems to be lifting to a stratus so may not be as much of a concern for valleys now. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These tweaks have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 445 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 08Z sfc analysis still shows a weak and ill defined pressure pattern over eastern Kentucky. This is allowing the diurnal cycle to be the main driver of the weather. At night, the convection dies off along with much of the clouds allowing very limited radiation cooling and the development of fog - becoming dense in the valleys. Again due to high humidity there is minimal terrain differences showing up in the temperatures. Specifically, readings are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s with similar dewpoints, amid light to calm winds. An SPS is again in effect for areas of dense fog early this morning across the entirety of the JKL CWA. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast even as they indicate more amplification to end the work week. Initially, they all depict a positively tilted 5h trough in place over the Tennessee Valley through western Kentucky. This trough will fill and dampen through Thursday as it slowly drifts east with very small height falls for the area. Late in the period the westerlies at mid-level running through the northern Ohio Valley start to speed up and settle south toward Kentucky. This essentially sets the stage for additional short waves - some probably convectively induced from upstream - to impact the area into the start of the weekend. Given the good enough agreement among the models through 00Z Friday, the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids with some adjustment applied for very minor terrain details in temperatures tonight. As for PoPs, consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage were included from the latest CAMruns. These were again smoothed and fitted to a reasonable diurnal trend - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics possibly extending the convection later into the nights than the past couple of them. Sensible weather features typical summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be warm and humid with mainly afternoon and evening convection. Overlaid on this fairly predictable pattern will be the potential for outside influence in the form of waves at mid level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly on Thursday and beyond. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - becoming cumulative by week's end with isolated flood concerns peaking. In addition to the excessive rain, we will also need to be on the look out for organized convection from those strengthening and nearing westerlies bringing perturbances closer to the area such that damaging wind gusts could be possible from any more organized storms Thursday afternoon and evening - especially over our western zones. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Thursday evening. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains. For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday. By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed. Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A mix of conditions is expected this afternoon and evening with scattered showers/ thunderstorms persisting through much of the period. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions likely lingering later into the evening than the past couple of nights. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...CMC  902 FXUS64 KBMX 081838 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 138 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 136 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 - Thunderstorms: Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for now through the beginning of next week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. && .DISCUSSION... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026 The region remains influenced by a weak mid-level closed low situated over the Central Mississippi River Valley, which continues to provide synoptic lift. This system, interacting with remnant outflow boundaries, will drive the increase in scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area. While activity is expected to peak during the afternoon, particularly across northern counties, some storms may persist into the overnight hours over the next 48 hours. Expected hazards include frequent lightning, heavy tropical downpours, and gusty winds of 20- 30 mph. Persistent hot and humid conditions will continue to impact the area, keeping afternoon highs in the low to mid-90s and heat indices at or above 100 degrees, consistent with the broader pattern of dangerous heat persisting across the Southeast. The closed low will gradually drift northeastward and weaken, leading to a decrease in overall forcing and storm coverage. By Friday, rain chances will decrease and become confined primarily to the eastern portion of the area, returning to the typical isolated to scattered, diurnally driven convective regime. Heat indices will also increase by Friday into Saturday with readings possibly reaching 105 degrees, which may approach or meet Heat Advisory criteria. A pattern shift begins on Sunday as an anomalous 500 mb ridge expands across the CONUS, eventually pushing a rare July surface front southward into the area. This boundary, in tandem with mid- level shortwave impulses embedded in northwesterly flow, is forecast to trigger widespread shower and storm development for both Sunday and Monday, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds remaining the primary concerns. By the middle of next week, model confidence decreases due to differences between deterministic and ensemble guidance, though confidence is increasing for above- average temperatures across the region. 16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 Generally VFR conditions are expected outside of storms. Widely scattered diurnally enhanced summertime convection will be possible for this afternoon. Only confident enough for a PROB30 group at TCL, BHM, and EET. It is too hard to pinpoint. Will be monitoring closely for any needed amendments. Otherwise, winds will be out of the west to west-northwest 5-10kts outside of convection with mixing and light and variable overnight. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue. Thunderstorms will remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain low through the beginning of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 91 72 91 / 20 50 30 50 Anniston 72 90 73 90 / 20 40 30 50 Birmingham 74 91 74 92 / 20 40 30 50 Tuscaloosa 73 91 74 92 / 20 40 20 30 Calera 73 94 73 95 / 20 40 30 40 Auburn 74 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 30 Montgomery 75 93 74 93 / 10 40 20 20 Troy 74 93 73 92 / 10 40 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...08  043 FXUS63 KMPX 081841 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 141 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing showers and storms could produce brief gusty winds and localized flooding. Chance for severe weather is low. - Another round of storms is possible this afternoon and evening favoring southern to southeastern MN and western WI. - Chances for additional rainfall after today are few and far between, with temperatures heating up into the weekend and even more into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The radar mosaic as of 245am shows a few clusters of generally weak storms moving across the region, with the most notable being clusters over western WI moving east, in western Stearns moving east, and in eastern SoDak moving east. The main concern has transitioned from the severe threat earlier in the night to a localized/flash flooding threat as the lower level inversion has resulted in significant low level capping and a lack of wind gusts making it to the surface. The last few storms could still produce a gust or two, but generally we expect to see little in the way of traditional severe weather threats from this point forward due to a lack of instability. As far as the flooding threat goes, we are not completely out of the woods yet but the trajectory of the storms moving in this morning is farther south than what moved through earlier in the night, and as such the flooding threat is a bit lower as we have yet to see storms moving through an area that was already hit. We may end up issuing a couple flood warnings yet tonight, but the overall risk is a bit lower than it was looking thanks to the different locations of separate storms. In general compared to the guidance, the later rounds of storms have been farther south of the HREF PMM QPF which was favoring an area from St. Cloud to Brainerd, and instead this round is more clustered from St. Cloud to Mankato. A couple inches of rain are possible from the storms moving in, and for those that have been mostly dry so far we will struggle to see any significant flooding from this. The one exception would be urban areas that lead to significant runoff, so we are not quite completely out of the woods yet. The frontal boundary along which the storms have been moving is expected to sag southwards throughout the day, and there are some pretty significant timing differences between the CAMs still. The RRFS produces a couple storms in northern Iowa that move towards southern MN as early as 10-11am, with the HRRR keeping storms around from this morning much later and re-forming storms generally shortly before or around 6pm. Forecast soundings from the HRRR in southern MN show a healthy 2500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE by 3pm with little if any capping and adiabatic surface lapse rates allowing for decent mixing, so I wouldn't be surprised if storms started to fire a bit earlier than the model reflectivity is suggesting for the post- morning round. The main limiting factor will be the shear as the hodograph is fairly unidirectional with the majority of the profile favoring westerly winds with a slight southward tilt in the lower levels. Speed shear is still good enough to maintain storms as they get going, so while spinning storms would be less likely outside of storm/outflow interactions, storms should be able to maintain their strength if they remain discreet enough. Overall the inclusion of the marginal/slight SPC risks is welcome for southern MN as we certainly have the thermodynamics and just enough dynamics to support the storms. As the storms exit later today, that is pretty much it for rain chances for the foreseeable future as we transition to the incoming heat dome that has been advertised byus and the weather enterprise in general. There is some uncertainty remaining in just how warm we get as can be seen if you compare the 500mb maps beginning Sunday through midweek from the GEFS/EPS respectively. The GEFS trough is more progressive in eastern North America which allows the ridge to flatten earlier, resulting in a marginally weaker dome of heat which would promote low to mid 90s as our warmest temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. The EPS is a bit slower, resulting in taller 500mb heights almost reaching 600dam, with EPS mean highs in the upper 90s for early next week. We are more than likely looking at heat headlines regardless of which wins out for at least a Monday/Tuesday next week, with more possible depending on which ultimately is closer to reality. Precipitation chances will be absent as long as the ridge is in place as large scale subsidence will be present, with the longer range ensemble meteograms showing very few members with appreciable rain chances until at least Thursday next week and even then it is less than 20% of EPS members. The NAEFS continue to highlight near maxed out 500mb heights and 99th percentile temperatures for this time of year to nobodies surprise. It might be a good idea to prep a bit early for this heat wave and find ways to keep cool next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tricky forecast through this evening with the wavy/wobbly surface front draped over the area in combination with multiple disturbances aloft helping spawn scattered showers/thunderstorms through this evening. Still the best chances for precipitation will be southern-eastern MN through western WI. Therefore, have kept AXN-STC dry while other sites have mention of mainly -RA as CB/TS mention is too difficult to pinpoint with any confidence at any given site. Will need to see how radar trends evolve in order to issue an AMD with CB/TS but the hazard for any given site cannot be ruled out. Behind the precip, ceilings look to drop to MVFR for most locations overnight through Thursday morning, followed by gradually clearing skies as Thursday progresses. Winds will generally run under 10kts, which may force directions to have varying directions. In addition, the thunderstorms and associated outflow boundaries may produce localized breezy/gusty conditions. KMSP...Best timing for rainfall looks to be within the earliest portion of the 08/18z TAF as the greater chances of CB/TS looks to be south and east of MSP, thus have kept mention of MSP precip to just -RA. Still could have some thunder/lightning but no organized storms look to reach MSP today. Conditions become tranquil with lowering ceilings tonight through sunrise tomorrow, followed by partial clearing during the day Thursday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Freeborn. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...JPC  032 FXUS64 KCRP 081841 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 141 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 140 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts this week, with peak heat indices between 103-108 degrees. - Low rain chances through Thursday along the Coastal Plains, medium rain chances Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Just a few seabreeze showers/storms today thanks to slightly lower deep moisture across the area today. Will see a similar situation tomorrow, though a plume of tropical moisture will be approaching, so probably a bit more convection than today. Temperatures both today and tomorrow will remain near normal. For Friday and Saturday that moisture plume really moves over the area and will have a weak shortwave rotating through the area between ridging over Florida and ridging to the northwest of the area. Will see an increase in convective activity with the aforementioned conditions with PoPs in the 40% range, especially east. PWAT values top two inches an should allow for some heavier downpours. Totals are generally expected to be under half an inch, but as typically happens with this type of convection, slow moving storms will create isolated higher amounts. Moving into next week the mid-level pattern continues to be fairly active with shortwaves, but right now it looks mainly to bring rain chances to the Victoria Crossroads. Temperatures remain near normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mainly VFR conditions in the forecast for this period. Less coverage of showers/storms this afternoon, but will still see some in the VCT region. Have VCTS mentioned for that site. Otherwise typically afternoon southeast breezes with scattered CU this afternoon. Overnight looks less conducive for low CIGS/VIS restrictions than past few nights, but do still have a brief MVFR VIS mentioned for ALI. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mainly moderate south-southeasterly winds (BF 3-4) will persist through the rest of the work week. A few showers and storms possible today and tomorrow with increasing potential Friday and Saturday. Winds will become more weak to moderate next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 92 78 91 / 0 10 20 30 Victoria 76 96 77 95 / 0 10 20 40 Laredo 76 99 77 97 / 10 10 10 20 Alice 74 95 75 93 / 0 20 10 40 Rockport 82 91 82 91 / 0 10 20 30 Cotulla 76 98 77 96 / 10 10 0 30 Kingsville 74 93 76 91 / 0 10 10 40 Navy Corpus 81 90 82 90 / 0 10 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...PH/83  110 FXUS63 KJKL 081842 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - There is a high chance of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is expected at times through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday, with a threat of isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. - A Flood Watch has been issued for increased flash flood potential across the area, and is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 241 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A mid-level closed low over the Lower OH/TN Valley will slowly fill and become an open wave this evening into the overnight as it moves up the Ohio River Valley. Westerly flow then builds in its wake Thursday into Thursday night, with another wave and associated convection approaching from the west and west-northwest Thursday night into Friday morning. Numerous convective showers and storms have already developed across the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon. An overall increasing trend in convective activity is likely as the afternoon progresses in a moderately unstable environment with high PWs and lower to mid 70s dewpoints. A bit stronger mid-level flow than yesterday means storm motions are a bit more progressive than yesterday, but the potential for training of heavy rain still exists, particularly in areas where soils are already saturated from recent previous heavy rainfall. Thus, an isolated flash flood potential remains through Thursday morning. Flash flood potential increases Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, as another round of afternoon and evening convection is expected on top of increasingly wet soils. Attention then turns to a potentially significant round of heavy rain at the very end of the period towards dawn Friday with the arrival of one or more mesoscale convective systems. Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued starting at 18z Thursday afternoon, continuing into the first half of the weekend. With an active weather pattern and high humidity through the period, expect continued mild/warm overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s, with little if any ridge-valley temperature splits. Highs Thursday will be tempered somewhat by cloud cover and redeveloping shower and thunderstorm activity, with lower to mid 80s expected. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains. For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday. By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed. Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A mix of conditions is expected this afternoon and evening with scattered showers/ thunderstorms persisting through much of the period. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions likely lingering later into the evening than the past couple of nights. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...CMC  186 FXUS64 KOUN 081844 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 144 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A few isolated showers and storms are possible today across southeast/south central Oklahoma. - Storm chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through this week with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds are out of the southwest along and west of I-35 as of the noon hour. This is tracking with surface temperatures warming a degree or two faster than NBM/official guidance, which is unsurprising in that regime. Parts of central and southern Oklahoma stand a good chance of seeing their first 100-degree day of 2026. Convection should be pretty limited in scope today given the lack of cumulus development to this point. Near-term guidance suggests that we will eventually see weak convection in south central/southeast Oklahoma where surface winds will remain a little more backed and dewpoints stand a better chance of holding in the low-to-mid 70s. Dry mid-levels and hot boundary layers will promote 1,600+ J/kg of DCAPE, so wouldn't be surprised to see downbursts even with small cores. Winds remain southwesterly tonight. NBM suggests low temperatures near 80 degrees, and with the breeze remaining from that direction I'd be hard-pressed to say that it will be wrong. Meister && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tomorrow will be almost as hot as today along and south of an advancing cold front. There's a weak signal for showers just before daybreak along the front in north central Oklahoma with several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. In all likelihood, that activity will taper off during the morning hours and lead the boundary to stall there. That boundary is a potential focusing mechanism for further convection in the afternoon and evening hours across northern and western Oklahoma. A moist layer in the mid-levels may prevent ginormous DCAPE values from being realized, but a low-end downburst threat will persist. Otherwise, heat continues to be the story with a pretty good chance that we will need Heat Advisories near and just south of the front. A more organized round of storms is probable across the Central Plains late tomorrow evening with near-easterly surface winds and a decent reservoir of instability to work with. A reasonable expectation would be that storms arrive into northwest Oklahoma around 9:00 pm. Whether this is a cluster, organized MCS, or just decaying updrafts remains to be seen. The primary concerns would be damaging winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Uncertainty increases on Friday given the potential for modulation of the frontal boundary. However, that will be the focusing point for both heat risk and storm potential along and south of it - perhaps from north central Oklahoma toward the I-40 corridor. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aforementioned showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday across much of the area. Temperatures will be cooler over the weekend, however, with increasing surface dewpoints, afternoon heat indices will still be in the 100s. Mid-level ridge will shift to the north across the central and high Plains into next week, helping to keep temperatures near average across the southern Plains. As of right now, the overall synoptic pattern next week will support above average temperaturesand below average precipitation. Bunker && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon across central and south central Oklahoma, but chances are too low for mention in the TAFs. Additional showers and storms will be possible across northern Oklahoma later tonight for which prob30s have been included. Any storms that develop today and tonight will be capable of erratic and gusty winds and lightning. Winds will show a typical diurnal pattern with afternoon veering and breeziness. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 101 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 78 101 78 100 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 101 72 99 / 10 10 40 10 Ponca City OK 78 99 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 Durant OK 80 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-013-020-026- 032. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...04 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...14  321 FXUS66 KMTR 081845 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1145 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A warming trend today through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 923 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Stratus coverage is dissipating across the region at a much faster pace than yesterday. Temperatures remain seasonal to seasonally cool today with interior highs in the 80s and coastal/bay shoreline highs in the 60s to 70s. The interior Central Coast remains seasonally warm with highs in the 80s to 90s today. A warming trend remains on track for tomorrow with interior high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s expected. Portions of the interior Central Coast will be in the upper 90s to low 100s. We continue to monitor the potential for thunderstorms late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Today and tonight) A 500 mb high pressure system centered over the southwestern states is forecast to continue shifting essentially westward to southern California and northern Mexico over the next 24 hours. A 500 mb trough of low pressure is over the eastern Pacific. Onshore winds will continue to usher stratus inland through morning, with diurnal surface warming mixing out much of the stratus by late morning and afternoon. Daytime highs will be in the 60s coastside, 60s/70s bayside to the 80s/90s inland. Stratus returns tonight. Lows will be in the 50s except lower to mid 60s at higher elevations tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) The aforementioned high pressure system will be nearly stationary on Thursday then it'll shift northeastward Friday through early next week. Daytime highs will be coolest along the coast with 60s, 60s/70s bayside and in the 80s/90s inland to the lower 100s far inland mainly over the southern interior. Night-time lows will cool to the 50s/60s. Southerly winds aloft on the periphery of the high will rather quickly transport mid-level sub-tropical/tropical moisture to our forecast area beginning Saturday evening and night. There are hints in the GFS for example that a mid level moisture gradient to our southwest will straddle the coastal waters and offshore waters late Saturday/Sunday then again Tuesday. The intrusion of dry air above lifting moist air parcels/layers tilt the lapse rates much more steeply leading to convection. There may be a temporary increase in mid level instability traversing our forecast area early in the week. A sign for minimal potential, at this time at least GFS forecast soundings are indicating essentially no convective potential (mucape) over our forecast area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Satellite is currently showing stratus clearing from most terminals. Widespread VFR conditions are expected by 19-20Z today, except at HAF where it will remain IFR-MVFR throughout the TAF period. A northwest to west wind flow will persist at sites south of the Golden Gate, meanwhile North Bay terminals experience southwest to southerly winds. Fresh to moderate breezes are forecast between 10- 15 kt across our area. The marine layer returns again this evening after 02-03Z Thursday with more borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings at most terminals. Low to medium confidence (30-40% chance)on whether LVK and SJC will develop MVFR ceilings as it is dependent on if the marine layer deepens beyond 1000 feet. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR ceilings are still hovering around the terminal, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail after 19Z today. Moderate breezes with embedded gusts increase through the afternoon. MVFR ceilings begin to fill in around 05Z Thursday followed by IFR ceilings around 08Z, which persist through 19Z Thursday. Medium confidence on the arrival and scattering of the stratus. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar general pattern to SFO. Winds ease slightly earlier and MVFR/IFR ceilings arrive shortly after SFO. Ceilings are expected to scatter out before SFO Thursday morning as well. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has cleared at MRY and SNS with VFR expected to continue through this afternoon. Guidance is in agreement that stratus will return early this evening (approx. 00- 03Z) and remain through late tomorrow morning. The marine layer will lower to 1200-1000 ft tonight which may result in the marine layer lowering to IFR overnight. LAMP guidance suggests LIFR conditions and reductions in visibility are possible early tomorrow morning but confidence is low to moderate. Breezy onshore winds are expected this afternoon/evening before winds ease overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 923 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Rough seas with heights between 8-12 ft continue to build into the weekend across the waters accompanied with a long period southerly swell. Northwest fresh to strong breezes with near gale force gusts persist into the weekend. Seas are expected to subside slightly (8- 10 ft) next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday and continue into this weekend. This will increase fire weather concerns slightly as fuels rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. Given the combination of potential for dry lightning and dry fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest information. && .BEACHES... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead tominor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  420 FXUS64 KMRX 081847 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 247 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day. - Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning. - A wet pattern will likely be in place this weekend and may pose a more widespread flooding threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently the synoptic pattern consist of weak ridging atop the far southeastern CONUS with an upper low slowly meandering into the mid- Mississippi River Valley. Additionally, a diffuse stationary boundary can be noted on the north and western fringes of the CWA. Isolated to scattered convection has developed in typical summer- time diurnal fashion, and will continue throughout this afternoon and evening. Best coverage is generally expected in vicinity of higher terrain, with slightly lesser chances across valley locations. Latest model derived soundings from CAMs paint MLCAPE between 1000- 2000 J/kg with PWAT values 1.5 to 1.8 inches. The fairly moist profiles are between the 75th and 90th percentiles per KBNA sounding climatology and limit DCAPE values to 400-700 J/kg. The lower DCAPE values will help to limit downburst potential but the anomalous moisture availability and LCL-EL mean wind nearly parallel to the boundary could lead to isolated flooding with any training convection. Overall, a gusty winds and localized flooding the main concerns. The aforementioned upper low will continue to translate east Thursday with the surface boundary expected to be draped west to east just to our south. The thermodynamic environment will remain fairly persistent, along with the primary hazards of gusty winds and localized flooding with the strongest activity. As we transition into Friday and continue into the weekend, an upper level trough will amplify over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Region. Clusters of storms may develop beneath slightly enhanced mid to upper level flow Friday afternoon. GFS soundings depict an elevated mixed layer across southern portions of the forecast area during this time, which could enhance the potential for a few strong to severe gusts making it to the surface. Additionally, both ensemble and deterministic guidance agree that PWAT values will increase to just north of two inches Friday onward. Guidance hints that a boundary will be draping towards the area late Friday into Saturday and could result in a prolonged period with showers and storms tapping into the anomalous PWATs. Flash flooding threat likely to continue, if not increase, into the weekend. Though, the expected location of the greatest axis of precip still remains a little fuzzy. A Flood Watch may be needed with future forecast packages. The front will work south of the region with decreasing chances of precip as we head into the new work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered showers and storms are expected across the region through the evening. Updated timings of PROB30s based on latest radar and CAM trends. Persistence forecast with brief morning fog at KTRI. Southwest winds will be breezy for TYS/TRI tomorrow, with gusts around 20kts possible. Another period of scattered showers and storms are expected tomorrow afternoon, and future TAF issuances may likely need to include some mention of at least vicinity activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 89 72 90 / 10 40 30 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 8771 87 / 30 60 60 90 Oak Ridge, TN 69 87 70 86 / 30 60 60 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 67 84 / 50 70 60 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS AVIATION...KRS  449 FXUS63 KBIS 081848 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures remain today, followed by a strong warming trend through the weekend. - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. - Very hot this weekend and early next week, with daily high temperatures 95 to 105. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently quasi-zonal flow is over the Northern Plains and northern Rockies. At the surface, a high pressure is in far southern Canada, influencing the Dakotas and eastern Montana. Around the high is a stationary front from central Montana to Nebraska, and back up to Minnesota. A very slight wave in the zonal flow has created light rain showers in northern North Dakota today. Thursday another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the evening. All of western and central North Dakota is in a level 1 risk, with a smaller area through the middle part of the state of a level 2 risk. A weak surface low pressure will move east across the International Border in the western half of the state. With at least 35 knots of shear, and the shear vector perpendicular to that stationary front, isolated super cells are possible in western and central North Dakota. With ample surface heating and moisture advecting into the state, the middle third of the state was upgraded to a level 2 risk. The current forecast for hail size is up to 2 inches and 60mph wind gust. Convection will likely start discrete before becoming clusters as outflow boundaries collide through the event. Timing and location are unfortunately low confidence as the various CAMs have differences. The general consensus for a start time is in between 21 and 00z in western ND, and moving southeast, exiting our area by 10z. Looking ahead to this very hot weekend, a large upper level high will strengthen over the Desert Southwest. This will create a ridge over the Northern Plains, allowing that clockwise moving high to push the hot air northward at the 850mb level. The current deterministic NBM temperature forecast continue to show lower triple digits for western and parts of central ND Sunday and Monday, but overall the extreme heat will last from Friday through at least Tuesday. One thing to note for Sunday and Monday, is that the deterministic temperatures have been the 75th percentile of the NBM, meaning there is likely a warm bias occurring and actual temperatures won't be as high. This morning's run, already has come down closer to the 50th percentile, although that is still in the triple digits. The large upper high will slowly roll to the northeast and end up centered on the Central Plains by Monday. An Alberta Clipper moving through Minnesota will then squish the high back to the west. This will squeeze the very warm temperatures down to the South Dakota border, while the rest of the state drops to the 80s or low 90s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR with a few areas in the south central of BKN MVFR CIGs this afternoon. Winds will be southeasterly 5 to 10kts, calming after sunset. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith  445 FXUS65 KABQ 081848 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1248 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms. - A low risk of severe storms exists Thursday and Friday across far northeast NM, mainly in Union County. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The H5 remains flat and elongated west to east from NM to just offshore the northern Baja Peninsula today with only modest low level moisture beneath it across New Mexico. Widespread surface Td's in the 40s to 50s is beginning to yield this afternoon's crop of isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the high terrain. Steering flow will generally take storms off the Sangre de Cristo's S/SE over the adjacent highlands late today, reaching near the Sacramento Mts this evening. Some of these storms may be capable of briefly producing upwards of an inch of rain over the Sangre de Cristo's, but any flash flood potential is low. Rainfall rates with this particular cluster will steadily lower as they progress southward toward south-central NM this evening. Storm motions along the Continental Divide will be slower and erratic with short lifespans. Relatively drier boundary layer conditions with brief rain potential will heighten the risk for dry lightning and strong and abrupt dry downburst wind gusts. Evening convection will die down to about the midnight hour through central and south-central NM with erratic gusty outflow winds also calming thru the evening hours. After a relatively calm overnight into morning period, Thursday will see the H5 high continue to flatten and migrate westward, allowing for drier westerlies to expand through more of northwestern and north-central NM. This will shunt afternoon thunderstorms moreso to areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts, as well as over the southwest mountains in the Gila NF area, and south-central mountains near Ruidoso. Stronger westerlies aloft overriding the CO Rockies will provide for better bulk shear, allowing for a marginal risk of storms moving east off the Sangre de Cristo's to become strong to severe over Colfax and Union Counties Thursday afternoon. The H5 high builds back east over NM Friday, but afternoon thunderstorm initiation will favor the same areas with another marginal risk for some to become strong to severe along and east of the Sangre de Cristo's. The subtle difference will be the increase in high temperatures Friday into the low 100s for more lower elevation areas. Some areas including Farmington and Albuquerque may need Heat Advisories. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The H5 high begins to evolve into a more classically shaped NAM Monsoon high centered over the Four Corners region Saturday. This will keep the heat going over western NM with some lower level moisture still present through eastern NM. Afternoon storms will favor areas along the eastern slopes of the central mountain chain with relatively slow storm motions threatening heavy rainfall over recent burn scars. PWATs climb toward the 0.90" to 1.00" mark Sunday as the monsoon high builds toward the 600dm mark over WY, allowing for Gulf moisture to advance further west through the state. This will set the stage for more scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain of central andsouthern NM. There may also be some surface boundaries present across eastern NM capable of being a focal point for convective updrafts as well. The near 600-602dm high sets up its domain over the northern Great Plains early next week, continuing a healthy influx of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf through mostly the southern half to two- thirds of NM. Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain before migrating westward over surrounding lower elevations is the favored pattern each day. Any storm will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, threatening flash flooding where storms pass over the same areas repeatedly. High temperatures also trend down with the high migrating away from NM, lowering the heat risk. One area for uncertainty regarding afternoon thunderstorm chances early next week revolves around global numerical models no longer strongly resolving an easterly wave feature pushing into NM from TX. Suppression on the western fringe of this feature would act to lower thunderstorm potential, increasing again as its axis moves into the state, but there is less of a signal for that with the 12Z model runs this morning. Something to watch out for regarding next week's thunderstorm potential. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR prevails areawide, except for where locally MVFR conditions will accompany afternoon thunderstorm activity developing over the high terrain before moving over surrounding lower elevations of mostly central and western NM. Will need to monitor potential for east canyon wind thru KABQ b/w 23Z to 03Z, amds may become necessary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No by the book critical fire weather concerns through the next 7 days. However, very dry conditions with heat building and very low humidity remains. Prevailing winds will be the limiting factor for any fire weather concerns. Abrupt and erratic wind gusts accompanied by an increased dry lightning potential does exist where isolated to scattered thunderstorms pass across mainly central, northern, and western NM through the rest of the week. More rain efficient thunderstorms enter eastern NM Saturday, spreading westward Sunday into early next week each afternoon as the main monsoon high develops to the north and migrates over the northern Great Plains next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 98 63 97 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 49 93 48 94 / 10 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 58 91 59 92 / 10 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 55 93 58 93 / 10 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 56 89 58 89 / 10 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 57 93 58 94 / 20 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 59 90 61 90 / 50 0 10 0 Magdalena....................... 64 90 66 92 / 20 30 20 10 Datil........................... 60 87 62 88 / 20 20 20 5 Reserve......................... 54 95 55 95 / 50 20 20 30 Glenwood........................ 58 99 59 99 / 20 40 30 30 Chama........................... 49 86 49 87 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 63 88 65 90 / 10 20 5 5 Pecos........................... 57 90 58 92 / 20 20 10 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 86 56 88 / 20 30 0 0 Red River....................... 48 77 48 78 / 20 20 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 39 82 38 83 / 20 20 5 10 Taos............................ 52 90 52 91 / 10 20 0 0 Mora............................ 54 86 55 87 / 20 40 10 20 Espanola........................ 60 95 61 98 / 10 20 5 0 Santa Fe........................63 90 63 92 / 20 30 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 94 60 95 / 20 20 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 97 70 99 / 20 10 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 99 66 100 / 20 10 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 100 65 102 / 20 5 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 99 68 100 / 20 5 10 0 Belen........................... 64 100 65 102 / 20 10 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 100 67 101 / 20 5 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 100 63 101 / 20 10 20 0 Corrales........................ 66 100 67 102 / 20 5 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 64 100 65 101 / 20 10 20 0 Placitas........................ 67 96 68 97 / 20 10 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 99 67 100 / 20 5 10 0 Socorro......................... 70 101 71 104 / 20 10 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 92 64 93 / 20 10 10 0 Tijeras......................... 63 93 63 94 / 20 10 10 0 Edgewood........................ 59 94 60 95 / 20 10 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 95 56 96 / 30 10 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 57 89 58 91 / 30 10 20 10 Mountainair..................... 59 93 61 95 / 40 10 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 62 91 63 94 / 60 20 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 67 94 68 97 / 40 20 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 59 86 63 89 / 30 40 20 40 Capulin......................... 54 86 53 86 / 20 60 20 60 Raton........................... 53 90 54 90 / 20 50 20 40 Springer........................ 55 92 55 93 / 20 40 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 56 89 57 90 / 20 40 20 20 Clayton......................... 63 94 61 92 / 20 40 30 10 Roy............................. 60 90 59 90 / 20 30 20 20 Conchas......................... 66 99 65 99 / 30 20 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 64 95 64 96 / 30 20 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 69 100 68 100 / 20 5 30 0 Clovis.......................... 68 99 68 99 / 5 5 20 0 Portales........................ 69 99 70 101 / 5 0 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 69 99 69 101 / 10 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 70 101 72 103 / 10 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 65 96 66 97 / 20 20 20 5 Elk............................. 62 93 64 94 / 10 50 10 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  496 FXUS63 KGLD 081850 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1250 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This afternoon, we are still expecting temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s across the CWA, likely the warmest of the week. There is a weak stationary boundary that is set up over northeastern Colorado. This may form some weak showers early this afternoon, which could drain some of the instability from the environment for the storms later today. There is only a 5-10% chance of this occurring though. The main line of storms will be coming from a 500 mb shortwave trough. Overall, today is a stronger copy of Tuesday. Storms look to be entering the western CWA around 22-0Z. Most likely, we will see a broken line of storms fire off in eastern Colorado and fill into a QLCS by 0-3Z. Wind is the primary threat with these storms, especially if a bowing segment in the QLCS is able to form. Winds up to 85 MPH would be possible in this case, which would create a blowing dust hazard, maybe even a haboob. Most likely, wind gusts will be in the 55-70 MPH range, which could lead to blowing dust, but a haboob becomes slightly less likely and localized plumes of dust would become the hazard. Effective shear looks to be on the low-end side for this event, mainly in the 20-35 kts range. This is still enough for some severe hail to form, but makes it less likely. LCLs are forecast to be above 2 km. That combined with the poor shear means tornadoes are extremely unlikely this evening. The severe threat looks to end around 6Z, but showers may linger until closer to 9-12Z. Over the past multiple runs, the NAMNest has been showing a second solution to today's convection. This would have a cell form around or south of Limon, CO and move to the southeast in the early evening. Then, around 4-5Z, around the Tri-State border, another round of storms fires and move to the east-southeast. This solution is less likely, but if it occurs the wind threat lowers significantly, the hail threat increases to 2 inches being possible, and severe convection may last until closer to 9Z. In addition to these threats, there is a 25% chance that some backbuilding fingers from the main line of convection produce 1-2 inches of rain. It's unlikely, but this could produce localized flash flooding overnight tonight. Tomorrow's severe threat is very similar to today, with slightly better shear. Low level flow may be a few knots higher, which looks to push effective shear closer to the 35 kts mark. This increases the likelihood of hail, but maximum hail size remains around 1.75 inches. There is a slightly higher chance of a brief tornado, but still less than 2%. Models are in better agreement that tomorrow will be a QLCS moving across the CWA with wind being the primary threat, still. The dust potential does decrease due to recent precipitation, but is still a possibility. Once again, a 500 mb shortwave trough looks to spark off the main wave of storms, entering the CWA around 22-0Z. However, there is a 20% chance that another weak boundary fires off some weak showers and storms in eastern Colorado around 18-20Z. This convection may once again lower instability and decrease the severe risk for Friday evening. The main wave of the convection looks to have severe potential until around 6-9Z Friday morning. As far as a flooding threat, this increases with Thursday night's storms. PWATS in the 1.2-1.6 inch range are expectedand there are more models that are trying to show leading edge and backbuilding fingers of convection. This could lead to precipitation totals in the 2-4 inch range. Combined with tonight's precipitation, this increases the overnight flash flooding risk to around 30%. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today, but still in the 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to remain around 60s in the western CWA and around 70 in the eastern CWA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 144 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ***Thursday/Friday*** Upper-level flow looks to be approximately zonal Thursday and Friday. A shortwave trough making its way across the Rocky Mountains would support a surface low in Colorado during the afternoon and evening Thursday. Southeasterly winds may be allowed to develop ahead of the surface low during the afternoon and evening hours, allowing high temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thunderstorms are possible across a convergence zone centered approximately in Eastern Colorado. LREF and NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance both suggest at least a 60% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Thursday across this zone. Surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg seem likely as well according to LREF guidance. The severe potential with these storms will depend on whether stronger winds develop in the mid and upper levels. GFS and EC guidance appears consistent that upper-level winds may only support marginal severe thunderstorms, with most soundings showing 35 kts or less of 0-6 km shear. However, if 75th percentile or better 0-500 mb shear can be experienced (35 kts or greater), some of these storms may be allowed to produce severe hail and wind. Confidence in severe thunderstorms developing Thursday is around 5-10% at this time. The shortwave trough may stick around into Friday. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Thunderstorms are possible again, though appear to be less likely than Thursday. NBM guidance shows the best chances for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation on Friday across portions of West- Central Kansas, but is still only 45% or less. Similar CAPE values to Thursday are in play across this zone, though vertical wind shear may be even weaker. Confidence in severe weather occurring Friday is 5% or less. ***Saturday-Tuesday*** Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the remainder of the forecast will be dominated by broad upper-level ridging overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s. Drying across the forecast area may help prevent heat index values from rising to the level of a Heat Advisory as well. Precipitation appears unlikely Saturday through Tuesday, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows probabilities around 10% or less across the forecast region to see greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1043 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KMCK and KGLD through the period. Winds are forecast to be fairly light this afternoon, favoring an east-northeasterly direction. Storms look to move through the region this evening into the overnight hours. Expect strong gusts with the leading edge of the storms from the northwest, potentially with blowing dust too. Behind the storms, winds will favor a northwesterly direction, before favoring a northeasterly direction later in the morning Thursday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...CA  489 FXUS65 KBYZ 081850 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1250 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be severe and produce hail, strong winds, and heavy rain. - Trending drier Thursday; a chance of thunderstorms over the east and south. - Record hot this weekend into early next week! High temperatures will exceed 100 degrees most locations over the weekend, and temps on Sunday may challenge all-time records. && .DISCUSSION... Next 7 Days... A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through Montana this afternoon bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This wave of energy is not forecast to be too strong and thus a majority of storm initiation should occur over the mountains, esepcailly those closer to the MT/WY state line. The initial push of mid to upper level lift tries to push through on the earlier side today putting most of the forecast area under broad subsidence by 00z. Some models do push through another, even weaker, vort max just after 00z which could provide enough lift in conjunction with the terrain to initiate another round of convection. In terms of convective/severe ingredients, the sheer is not overly impressive. The RAP/NAM models show a broad area of 30kts of Effective Bulk Shear over eastern MT/WY this afternoon and evening with localized higher pockets. 30kts is enough to sustain some convection with widely isolated severe convection possible. Moisture is actually pretty good for this region as observed dew points are already in the 50s to low 60s F which should be plenty for any storm to work with. Mid level lapse rates wil be in excess of 7-8 C/Km this afternoon and evening across the region of interest with even higher values the farther SW you go. The main limiting factor to convection today appears to be the presence of a capping inversion. With high temperatures today forecast in the 90s this should be able to be overcome, however some models show a stronger cap than others. The lack of shear and the relatively straight hodograph shape may prevent any storm from getting too strong, however the inverted-v type soundings and modest CAPE in the hail growth zone could certainly support an isolated severe storm later today. Thursday could bring another chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly along and south of the MT/WY state line. These storms are not expected to become severe. Widely isolated severe storms are possible however, over extreme southeast MT and into SD. The big story remains the potentially record breaking heat in store for this weekend. Long range models and their ensembles are consistent in developing a strong ridge over the high plains in the coming days. On Saturday, both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles bring 594 dm 500mb heights into the region with those increasing to 597 dm heights Sunday. This alone would signal the hottest temperatures of the season. Deterministic ECMWF and GFS 700mb temperature values are around 18-20C for Saturday and 20-22C for Sunday. This translates to temperatures at least near 100F Saturday and in excess of 100F Sunday. There have been some model runs showing higher values at 700mb in addition to the 35-40C 850mb temperatures possible. While the NBM was a touch too high with high temperatures during the June heat wave, the deterministic NBM shows most of our climate sites approaching or eclipsing our all time record highs Sunday with temps over 110F not out of the question. With soaring temps and minimal to no moisture advection low to very low RH values are forecast this weekend as well. Min RH values in the teens across the region with single digits in and near WY are forecast during the particularly hot days of Saturdayand Sunday. The "good news" is that there will also be very litte wind with this heat which should keep fire concerns lower than they could be. As we look ahead into next week though there is a signal for the potential for some breezy conditions to make an appearance. Speaking of next week, ensembles keep the temperatures above average for the entirety of next week. The GFS Ensemble actually shifts the ridge axis to the west and centers it nearly over our CWA which would keep high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100F in Billings nearly every day. It is important to take precautions with heat like this. Temperatures never before recorded in this region are possible on Sunday. Avoid the outdoors during the afternoon and spend as much time as possible in air conditioning. Be sure to frequently check on those more at risk in the heat, such as the elderly or those with chronic health risks. The danger of the heat does not end with sunset. Low tempeatures forecast in the 70s for much of the region Sun/Mon AM does not give the body a chance to cool down. Additionally, those localities in/near cities are likely to stay hotter through the overnight period due to the urban heat island effect. Remember that extreme heat is the number one weather related killer. Below are the all-time record high temperatures at each of our climate stations: Billings, MT 108F Livingston, MT 105F Miles City, MT 111F Sheridan, WY 107F Baker, MT 109F WMR .AVIATION... 18z Discussion...VFR conditions will prevail outside of convective activity through Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms, with fairly high bases (~8-10kft AGL) are expected for most of the area this afternoon and evening, with more scattered activity along the southern state line zones. KBIL/KMLS/KSHR TAF locations have prob30 groups to account for this activity. There is a tempo for KLVM this afternoon for convective wind gusts funneling north along the Yellowstone river and impacting the terminal at times this afternoon (20-23z). Wind gusts around 40kts can be expected with even lighter convection, and a few gusts over 50kts can't be ruled out with stronger cells. Brief MVFR conditions can be expected near precipitation areas. Convection should dissipate by 06z. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 061/092 063/097 065/104 069/107 072/096 071/095 068/094 21/U 02/T 10/G 00/G 00/U 11/U 32/T LVM 053/090 055/093 057/102 061/101 062/094 062/091 059/090 31/U 01/U 00/G 00/G 01/U 13/T 44/T HDN 059/092 061/097 064/104 067/109 070/098 069/097 067/097 20/U 01/U 10/G 00/G 00/U 11/B 32/T MLS 061/092 061/098 066/104 070/108 073/098 068/096 068/096 21/U 02/W 10/G 00/G 00/U 11/B 22/T 4BQ 061/091 061/096 066/104 070/106 075/098 070/097 068/095 22/T 21/U 20/G 00/G 00/U 01/U 22/T BHK 057/089 057/094 062/100 065/104 070/098 064/094 063/092 23/W 11/U 20/U 00/G 00/U 11/U 22/T SHR 055/088 056/094 060/102 064/105 067/097 065/095 063/094 33/T 22/T 00/G 00/N 00/U 02/T 33/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Saturday morning through late Sunday night FOR ZONES 29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235. WY...Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Saturday morning through late Sunday night FOR ZONE 199. && $$ weather.gov/billings  576 FXUS61 KAKQ 081852 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 252 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Marine Discussion, no significant marine forecast changes && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. 2) Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. 3) Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. An upper level trough is located in vicinity of the New England coast early this morning. Meanwhile, a shortwave feature is tracking across the Mid-Atlantic coast on the southern periphery of the upper trough. At the surface, a stationary to slow moving cold front lingers over southern VA and coastal NE NC. An area of low-level streamline convergence is located in vicinity of the Northern Neck, and this is coincident with an axis of PW values of 2.3-2.4" and modest surface based instability. An area of slow moving to nearly stationary heavy rain and embedded tstms has lingered over the Northern Neck and there have been some reports of flooding early this morning. The latest trends from the HRRR depict that this area of streamline convergence lingers in vicinity of the western shore of the Ches. Bay through the morning. Therefore, some localized flooding from excessive rainfall will be possible, but also highly localized, and could creep into Hampton Roads. Otherwise, the best chances of showers and aftn tstms gradually shifts to the SW today as the cold front moves through the region. Coverage of showers/tstms will be less today compared to the prior two days. Hence the flash flood threat will be more limited and localized this afternoon. A few stronger tstm cores are possible, and this could produce some localized damaging wind gusts across interior southern VA and NE NC. Not as hot today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s/around 80F at the coast, to the mid 80s inland. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. The mid/upper level flow becomes more progressive Thursday and Friday. The 500mb flow increases to 30-35kt Thursday afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave trough, with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave trough. With strengthening mid level flow and strong surface heating strong to locally severe tstms are possible each afternoon. The question on Friday is coverage given more drier downslope flow. Additionally, the 00z/08 HREF has a decent signal for heavy rain from NE of the RIC metro to the lower MD Eastern Shore (and points N). High temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. Dewpoints should drop enough each afternoon to keep heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, but readings up to ~105F are possible in NE NC (especially along the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound). KEY MESSAGE 3...Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Chances of afternoon/evening showers/tstms continues Saturday as a cold front slowly sags through the region. Otherwise, trending drier Sunday into early next week as high pressure returns in the wake of the cold front. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday, before a warming trend commences Tuesday into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 136 PM EDT Wednesday... A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGS have been noted across the area this afternoon. SBY remains VFR while the rest of the terminals remain MVFR and low level clouds continue to clear. Latest satellite imagery shows the clouds clearing across the area and VFR CIGS should return to all terminals between 20-22z. In addition to the low CIGS, isolated showers and thunderstorms have initiated across portions of the Piedmont and NE NC. The thunderstorm near ECG ~1730z has started to weaken but could remain in the vicinity of the terminal for the next hour. Otherwise the showers should remain clear of the VA terminals especially ORF and PHF through the afternoon/evening. However, a shower/thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of RIC. Winds this afternoon remain out of the NE and E ~5-10kt. By tonight, winds become variable and a warm front lifts north. As this front lifts north a period of MVFR and IFR CIGS cannot be ruled out across NC and VA. These CIGS should clear by the mid to late morning of Thursday. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms return Thursday, with the probability 20% or less by Friday (better chances N/NW of an RIC-SBY line), then 40-60% by Saturday, and less than 30% Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected this week. E-NE 10-15 kt winds are expected through the rest of today. - The risk of thunderstorms is lower today but increases again Thursday and Friday. Benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this afternoon are E-NE at 10-15 kt on the north side of a slow moving backdoor cold front. Winds are expected to diminish slightly and shift out of the S-SE overnight at the front lifts north. Seas will be around 3 ft during this time and around 4 ft 20+ nm offshore. S-SE winds prevail into the early morning Thursday before shifting out of the W-SW during the afternoon and into Friday with 2- 4 ft seas. Winds swing around to the N-NW Saturday and then NE Sunday. Daily chances for storms are anticipated through the week, however, the chance this afternoon is comparatively lower than the past few days. Chances for more widespread storms, some strong to severe, increase Thursday and Friday as the cold front progresses north. SMWs will be issued as necessary. A moderate rip current risk is forecast today due to nearshore 3 ft waves and choppy surf. A low risk returns for the rest of the week. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed today for some additional calibration. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HET AVIATION...AJZ/HET MARINE...SW/AGK EQUIPMENT...  545 FXUS61 KRNK 081851 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 251 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... With stalled front over the area expecting daily threat of showers and storms through the upcoming weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms through this evening will bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and flash flooding. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms through this evening will bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and flash flooding. A stationary front bisects the forecast area from northwest to southeast with light northeast wind east of the mountains converging with westerly wind on west side of the mountains. Convergent zone runs along a BLF-GSO line and this will be the corridor to watch for development of deep convection. Mean winds aloft are out of the west at about 15 mph so look for an eastward drift of the activity with potential for isolated damaging wind gusts due to water loading within the downdraft cores. There is also potential for localized flash flooding per environment supporting high rain efficiency, PWATs running 1.70 over the mountains to as much as 2" over the piedmont... backbuilding and training cells being the most problematic. With front providing as a lifting mechanism, deep convection may linger a bit longer tonight compared to normal airmass storms, but overall think activity goes dormant toward midnight with areas of stratus and fog re-developing per shallow stable wedge east of the mountains. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will be a continued focus for showers/storms again Thursday with greatest coverage from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the front essentially stalled over the area, will have to contend with another day for localized heavy rain and marginally severe storms. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for early next week. Temperatures through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal and may actually cool to below normal for a few days early next week. The ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is shifting west over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered unorganized showers and thunderstorms will persist through sunset then dissipate after loss of daytime heating. Expect locally heavy downpours with downdraft wind gusts of 15-30kts. Away from deep convection expect VFR. After heating of the day showers dissipate areas of fog and stratus will develop overnight with potential for widespread low cigs/vsbys leading to period of IFR conditions late tonight and early Thursday. Cycle repeats itself Thursday, fog/stratus lifting after 14Z followed by cloud build-ups around noon and scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. In general expect light winds (under 5kts), but gusty near thunderstorms. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Potentially drier looks to arrive for early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM AVIATION...PM  654 FXUS61 KPHI 081855 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 255 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The risk for severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding Thursday afternoon and evening has slightly increased for portions of southeast Pennsylvania, the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Humidity returns on Thursday along with potential severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Humidity returns on Thursday along with potential severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. Weak high pressure over western New York and western Pennsylvania slides to the south and east this evening and will be off the Mid- Atlantic coast tonight. Return flow sets up behind the departing high, and a light southerly flow tonight will increase during the day Thursday. Dew points in the mid 60s this evening will increase into the upper 60s tonight, and then into the mid 70s on Thursday. Although temperatures will "only" be in the mid 80s or so, which is right around normal for this time of the year, the heat index will be in the low to mid 90s due to those high dew points. The main concern on Thursday will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. With low pressure approaches from the west and tracks towards the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening. A mid-level trough will move into the Northeast with some shortwave energy passing through the Delaware Valley, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey. SBCAPE values will be in excess of 1500 J/kg with PWATS from 2-2.5 inches, highest values from the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, south into Delmarva. 0-6 km shear will be from 25 to 30 kt. The two main threats from severe weather will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather (2 out of 5) for the Delaware Valley south of Philadelphia, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) from around Philadelphia north to Allentown. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, the eastern shores of Maryland, and Delaware, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) for the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. Although some showers and thunderstorms will fire up over far western portions of the forecast area from noon-2pm, the main timing will be from 4pm-10pm across the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. While showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and localized flash flooding are likely for the northern zones as well, the highest impacts in terms of potential severe weather and flash flooding should be focused generally south of Philadelphia. A warm and muggy night with patchy fog developing Thursday night after showers and thunderstorms come to an end by midnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of a cold front moving southward into the area. Similarly to Thursday, moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front, where PWAT values are progged to be in excess of 1.8 inches. This supports that any given shower or storm will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As of now, the majority of our forecast area is highlighted in an MARGINAL risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. In terms of the severe weather threat, ML CAPES are expected to reach at least 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values around 30 kt. Given better frontal forcing, there looks to be at least another opportunity for severe weather. As of now, SPC has our entire area highlighted in just a general thunder risk, however some of the MLP guidance indicate higher probabilities especially in terms of damaging winds. It is also worth noting that Friday will be quite sticky outside with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. This will result in heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. We may get close to Heat Advisory criteria in some spots, but basis the current forecast, heat indicies are expected to remain just below advisory criteria. There remains a vast amount of uncertainty with how Saturday will pan out as guidance continues to struggle with how quickly the cold front clears the area. Some guidance slows the progression of the front, keeping more in the way of showers around on Saturday, whereas others show a faster progression, yielding mainly dry weather. As mentioned by the previous shift, opted to stay very close to NBM PoPs for this period, which keeps 10-30% PoPs north, with 30-60% PoPs mainly across south Jersey and the Delmarva. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s. By Sunday and into early next week, guidance is showing an expansive upper level ridge setting up over the northern High Plains. This will yield dry weather and mainly clear skies across the Mid- Atlantic. Temperatures will be around normal for Sunday and Monday, but will swing back above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...VFR. S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence. Tonight...VFR initially. MVFR or lower CIGs in stratus developing by or after 09Z. Light S to nearly calm winds. Moderate confidence. Thursday through Thursday night...Any sub-VFR CIGs become VFR by or after 15Z. SHRA/TSRA develop after 18Z over western terminals and taper off over eastern terminals by 02Z Friday. Sub-VFR conds in the heaviest SHRA/TSRA, and then sub-VFR conds in BR and/or stratus late Thursday night. Moderate confidence overall. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR with periods of sub-VFR possible. A chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Saturday though Saturday night...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of sub-VFR conditions. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday through Monday...VFR. No significant weather expected. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight through Thursday night. South to southwest winds around 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Thursday afternoon, becoming W 5 to 10 kt Thursday night. Seas 2 to 3 feet. VSBY restrictions in fog possible tonight, then again Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain and gusty winds will impact the waters late Thursday afternoon and evening. Outlook... Friday through Monday...No marine headlines are expected at this time. Winds will largely remain between 5-15 kt through Sunday, with winds up to 20 kt possible on Monday. Seas around 2-4 feet. A chance for showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening through Saturday, with fair weather returning for Sunday and Monday. Rip Currents... For today, northeast winds 10 to 15 mph will veer to east and then southeast in the afternoon diminishing to around 5-10 mph. Theonshore flow when combined with moderate easterly swell at 7-8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk of rip currents across northern NJ beaches but LOW further south where winds are a little more relaxed (DE) and/or the shoreline is more parallel to the wind (southern NJ). For Thursday, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomes more southeasterly. This combination gives a MODERATE risk for the northern NJ beaches and DE beaches, but a LOW risk for the southern NJ beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/MPS AVIATION...DeSilva/MPS MARINE...DeSilva/MPS  650 FXUS63 KBIS 081855 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures remain today, followed by a strong warming trend through the weekend. - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. - Very hot this weekend and early next week, with daily high temperatures 95 to 105. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently quasi-zonal flow is over the Northern Plains and northern Rockies. At the surface, a high pressure is in far southern Canada, influencing the Dakotas and eastern Montana. Around the high is a stationary front from central Montana to Nebraska, and back up to Minnesota. A very slight wave in the zonal flow has created light rain showers in northern North Dakota today. Thursday another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the evening. All of western and central North Dakota is in a level 1 risk, with a smaller area through the middle part of the state of a level 2 risk. A weak surface low pressure will move east across the International Border in the western half of the state. With at least 35 knots of shear, and the shear vector perpendicular to that stationary front, isolated super cells are possible in western and central North Dakota. With ample surface heating and moisture advecting into the state, the middle third of the state was upgraded to a level 2 risk. The current forecast for hail size is up to 2 inches and 60mph wind gust. Convection will likely start discrete before becoming clusters as outflow boundaries collide through the event. Timing and location are unfortunately low confidence as the various CAMs have differences. The general consensus for a start time is in between 21 and 00z in western ND, and moving southeast, exiting our area by 10z. Looking ahead to this very hot weekend, a large upper level high will strengthen over the Desert Southwest. This will create a ridge over the Northern Plains, allowing that clockwise moving high to push the hot air northward at the 850mb level. The current deterministic NBM temperature forecast continue to show lower triple digits for western and parts of central ND Sunday and Monday, but overall the extreme heat will last from Friday through at least Tuesday. One thing to note for Sunday and Monday, is that the deterministic temperatures have been the 75th percentile of the NBM, meaning there is likely a warm bias occurring and actual temperatures won't be as high. This morning's run, already has come down closer to the 50th percentile, although that is still in the triple digits. Like every very warm day in the state, there will be a strong south wind, with gust up to 30mph through the weekend. The large upper high will slowly roll to the northeast and end up centered on the Central Plains by Monday. An Alberta Clipper moving through Minnesota will then squish the high back to the west. This will squeeze the very warm temperatures down to the South Dakota border, while the rest of the state drops to the 80s or low 90s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR with a few areas in the south central of BKN MVFR CIGs this afternoon. Winds will be southeasterly 5 to 10kts, calming after sunset. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith  629 FXUS63 KICT 081854 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 154 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon, mainly across central Kansas. - Thunderstorm chances increase tonight across primarily central Kansas and last into Thursday. Widespread severe weather is not expected, though the strongest storms may be capable of damaging winds and small hail. - Continued chances for showers and storms through the weekend, especially late overnight into the early morning hours. - Mostly seasonable temperatures through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight a flattening upper ridge over the Rockies as an MCV tracks eastward across central Kansas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed as a result of this feature and will remain possible across central Kansas this afternoon. Severe weather appears unlikely at this time. A slow-moving cold front currently draped across Nebraska will shift southward through the rest of today into the evening hours. Showers and storms are progged to develop near this boundary in the High Plains and track eastward into the forecast area later tonight on the nose of a strengthening LLJ. Locally, the best chances for storms continue to lie in central Kansas and to the north where better instability lies, though uncertainty remains regarding intensity by the time activity reaches the forecast area. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary concern with the strongest activity, though small hail and locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well. Outflow from storms tonight will drive an effective front southward into southern Kansas throughout the day on Thursday. Convergence along this boundary may result in isolated storms during the late afternoon and evening hours particularly in south central and southeast Kansas, though a solid cap aloft may hinder storm development. Additionally, an MCS coming in off the High Plains will bring more rain chances to the area, though as mentioned in the previous discussion, the track for this feature remains uncertain as some solutions carry this complex as far south as Wichita or as far north as the I-70 corridor. Damaging wind gusts will once again be the primary threats with this activity should storms manage to hold together. Rain chances will continue Friday into Saturday as the frontal zone stalls out over the forecast area. Damaging winds will continue to be the primary hazard with the strongest activity. Furthermore, additional opportunities for precipitation may return to begin next week with mid/long-range guidance highlighting northeasterly shortwaves reaching the forecast area along the bottom of the upper high. At this point, the best chances appear to reside in southern Kansas, so most of the forecast area is expected to remain dry for this period. Regarding temperatures, highs in the upper 90s are forecast across southern Kansas for Thursday before a slight cooldown into the low to mid 90s arrives Friday and lasts into the beginning of next week. Models continue to depict a strong mid/upper ridge building across the central CONUS to start next week, though as the prior discussion pointed out, this may actually build too far north for abnormally warm temperatures to be realized in our area. As such, seasonable highs near 90 continue to be forecast Monday through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for all sites. However there are a few showers starting to develop in central KS that have the potential to impact KRSL/KGBD. Thesecould cause some gusty winds as they move though. There is enough instability for TS development but not expecting any storm to become severe at this time although it bears watching as the afternoon progresses. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...SGS  633 FXUS63 KIND 081854 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers or a stray thunderstorm possible across far south- central Indiana through this afternoon - Strong to severe storms and flash flooding possible late Thursday into Thursday night - Additional rain Friday through the weekend with localized flooding possible && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This afternoon through tonight... Weak surface high pressure is providing mostly quiet weather across central Indiana this afternoon. Current KIND radar imagery does depict isolated to scattered convection just south of the forecast area. This convection is associated with a weak mid-upper level low and a deeper plume of moisture which has slowly lifted north. The disturbance may promote isolated showers or a stray storm across far south-central Indiana through the afternoon. Otherwise, look for tranquil weather to continue through the overnight. Brief patchy fog cannot be ruled out towards daybreak Thursday due to very light winds and low-level moisture still in place. Thursday Through Saturday Night... Guidance continues to depict an active pattern developing with multiple disturbances tracking through the region. The first wave moving in late Thursday will push a cold front into central Indiana. The boundary is then expected to stall with additional shortwaves traversing the Ohio Valley. Deep moisture remaining in place and sufficient forcing from the multiple waves will keep rain chances elevated. Daytime heating atop the anomalously moist environment should promote moderate to strong instability Thursday. Meanwhile, slight enhancement of mid-upper level flow from the passing shortwave will promote up to 30 kt of effective shear supporting the potential for loosely organized convection. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the ample instability and sufficient deep layer shear. Forecast soundings depict steep lapse rates, moderate-strong instability, and DCAPE values approaching 1000-1200 J/KG which suggest storms are capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. The greater concern late this week will be the potential for heavy rainfall. Highly efficient warm rain processes in addition to the expected multiple rounds of convection could lead to localized flash flooding. Precipitable water values over 2.0 inches are expected which exceeds the 90th percentile for climatology this time of year. Efficient rainfall rates combined with repeated storms will be the main threat to monitor for flooding, especially if training occurs. Models have continue to gradually shift southward with the primary treat for heavy rainfall now across far south-central Indiana or locations further south. Sunday Onward Model guidance generally depicts a low pressure system departing early Sunday morning. Broad cyclonic flow across the region and lingering low-level moisture will support low chances for showers and storms. Upper ridging should then build in aloft late Sunday into early next week providing more tranquil weather. Guidance suggest the ridge begins to retrograde towards the middle of next resulting in northwest flow aloft. This would allow for shortwaves to track towards the region mid-late week returning precipitation chances to the forecast. Exact details remain uncertain at this time due to diverging model solutions. Increasing heights aloft and warmer 850mb temperatures advecting towards the region will lead to warming temperatures. Look for highs to reach the upper 80s to possibly near 90F early next week. Humid conditions combined with the heat may result in heat indices approaching the mid 90s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impacts: - Isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out near KBMG this afternoon Discussion: VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A weak mid-upper level low near far southern Indiana could support a stray shower or storm near KBMG this afternoon, but confidence is too low for an explicit mention in the TAF. Winds will generally be light through the period. Winds will also be variable through the afternoon before then becoming predominately southwesterly tonight. Brief patchy fog cannot be ruled out towards daybreak Thursday near the outlying TAF sites, but confidence is low. An approaching system will bring a greater chance for convection at the very end of the TAF period towards Thursday evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Melo  665 FXUS63 KLMK 081855 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 255 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds late this afternoon and evening. * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. * A drier overall pattern looks to take hold for early to middle next week. Look for highs in the upper 80s to near 90. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Now - Tonight... The closed upper low that has plagued the region for the past several days will finally get picked up by the prevailing westerlies this evening, and exit the region later tonight as an open shortwave. Ahead of this feature, PWATs have pooled into the 2-2.1" range throughout the column. The lack of deep layer shear is promoting slow storm movement, and with tall/skinny CAPE profiles combined with deep freezing levels above 14K feet, efficient heavy rainers will occur. Localized Flash Flooding will continue to be a threat through this afternoon and evening with HREF LMPP data suggesting isolated pockets of 2-4" amounts are possible in 1 to 2 hours. This is similar to what we have seen the past few days for some areas. Expect a handful of Flood Advisories and a few Flash Flood Warnings through this evening. Some slow moving showers and storms could linger deeper into tonight, mainly across our eastern CWA ahead of the upper trough axis, but overall confidence is low in how deep they will survive past peak heating. Thursday - Sunday... The late week into the weekend upper pattern will feature progressive zonal flow, with a series of shortwaves and/or convection induced MCV's traversing our area. Meanwhile, a surface frontal boundary will slowly sink southward across the region during this time. The end result will be waves of showers and thunderstorms riding along a nearly-stationary frontal boundary, and roughly parallel to the upper flow. Expect there to be some sort of mostly dry period on Thursday as lingering showers exit our east with the departing shortwave and we remain subsident for a bit behind the feature. Later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, focus will shift upstream to the next shortwave embedded within the flow. Some sort of cluster and/or clusters of showers and storms are expected to develop upstream ahead of this feature, and then work into our area later Thursday night into Friday. This cluster is expected to carry a Damaging Wind threat along with heavy rainfall capable of producing Flash Flooding. There isn't a whole lot of deep layer shear available for strong MCS maintenance (20-25 knots with the synoptic flow), however if you can get enough of a cold pool going from clusters of storms, we do have some lingering elevated instability over our area into the overnight to support sustained forward propagating convection. As a result, we'll carry a damaging wind threat into late Thursday night/Friday morning which matches with the SPC Day 2 Outlook nicely. W/NW CWA will have the greatest threat with lower confidence farther east given the diurnal minimum and uncertainty in how much of a cold pool push the convective complex will have. The other threat will be heavy rainfall given PWATs approaching 2" through the column and already wet antecedent conditions across the area. Not loving the 08/12z HREF 48 QPF Max and LPMM data for our area through Friday morning. It shows several pockets of 3-7" QPF amounts. It should be noted that some of that rainfall is from this afternoon (Wed afternoon), but still those are concerning amounts as these products have handled the "high-end" potential quite well with our recent rainfall events. Flood Watch was lifted for the entire CWA starting Thursday afternoon and running through late Saturday evening to account for the multi-wave threat. That multi-wave threat will continue into the weekend as shortwaves continue to eject into our area from upstream, likely creating training convective clusters with each wave. It is possible that any one of these waves (including Thursday night's) could have enough of a cold pool push to push the overall convectively reinforced boundary farther south. Two favorable things could come from this. 1.) The axis of heavier rainfall could shift from the northern CWA to the southern, or 2.) the axis of heavier rainfall could shift farther south into TN. Any wave in this series of waves that can be dodged will be helpful. Worst case scenario would be the same area getting hit with each wave. Flooding could become quite severe if that scenario played out. Will continue to message significant flooding possibilities into the weekend given the antecedent wet conditions, possibilities of some high end rainfall totals in spots, and intense rainfall rates overwhelming urban or already saturated grounds. Turn Around, Don't Drown! By later Saturday night into Sunday morning, there is decent agreement that the upper trough axis of the final shortwave will start to slide south through our area, cutting off the deeper moisture and the shortwave feed. Strong upper ridging will build across the central CONUS with the eastern fringes trying to win out over our area as we go into Sunday. Will keep some lingering shower chances in our CWA during this time, but overall not to the magnitude we saw late week into the first part of the weekend. Expecting highs mostly in the mid 80s each day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday, as the remnants of the former upper low gets carried off to the east, PWATs try to drop below 1.5". The day might not be completely dry, but any diurnally driven chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely be more isolated than they have been. As a surface low begins approaching the Lower Ohio Valley from the west, an increasing pressure gradient and added WAA will help drive slightly warmer temperatures, closer to 90 along and west of Interstate 65. Thursday evening into the early night, there is a chance that a system will continue moving east from the Plains and make it's way into the Lower Ohio Valley. Even though shear over the region is low, higher instability values could help an already developed system to sustain itself. This could bring a threat of strong to severe winds before weakening as the system moves off to the east later in the night. Friday into the weekend, a messy west to east oriented boundary is expected to set up and drop south through the Ohio Valley. This is expected to bring a return of PWAT values over 2". There could be some marginal instability at times, but overall the severe threat looks fairly low at this point. The main concern is expected to be flooding. Unlike the earlier activity Thursday evening which is expected to be quick moving, some of the later activity along the boundary Friday and Saturday could possibly be slower moving and see multiple rounds of heavy showers causing increased chances for flash flooding. If we get breaks in rounds of rain, the region will see less issues than if areas don't get a break from continuous showers. Early next week, precipitation chances look to finally drop as moisture gets pushed south of the CWA. High pressure behind the front is expected to bring clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures in the low 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A low pressure system centered around the MO/IL/KY state line will meander eastward across the area through tonight, triggering scattered afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms. With storms ongoing, the highest chances at the airfields will be over the next 6 hours, which was captured in prob30 groups. However, there is a lower (20-30%) chance thunderstorms could linger for another couple hours beyond 00z. By around 09z Thursday morning, patchy fog and low stratus is forecast to develop over the area; tempo groups were added at the terminals where confidence was highest. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081- 082. IN...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...JRB  712 FXUS63 KMKX 081856 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms are possible this evening mainly north of a Mineral Point, to Madison, to Sheboygan line. Damaging winds and large hail are the main hazards. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding may occur in the same areas. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again Thursday afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and small hail may occur. - Hot and muggy conditions return early next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight and Thursday: An outflow boundary continues to trigger showers over Racine County early this afternoon with likely some development for Kenosha County soon. Otherwise a cluster of storms is moving ewd across far nrn IA and adjacent MN. This area of storms has developed in a region of weak warm, moist advection and on the srn periphery of a vorticity maximum that stretches from central WI into se MN. Additional showers and storms are currently developing over central WI as well. Expect convection to grow in coverage and intensity the remainder of the afternoon over the aforementioned areas as MLCAPE builds to 1500-2000 J/KG. Effective shear will range from 30-40 kts over central WI but decreasing to 20 kts over srn WI with a lessening of overall shear toward the early evening. Nevertheless, enough CAPE and storm organization will support a decent potential for severe thunderstorms for a time toward central WI. For later in the evening and overnight, more of a locally heavy rain and urban and small stream flood potential will exist. This is supported by a wly 25 kt low level jet and associated thetae advection within the thermal ridge and the approaching weak shortwave trough from the nw. This is in conjunction with PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches and weak corfidi vectors. The CAMs and model QPF suggest the flood threat should remain isolated. Ongoing scattered storms and additional storms are then expected on Thu with the passage of the cold front and shortwave trough. Only marginal CAPE is expected with rather weak effective shear continuing. Thus the severe threat will be very low as well as an isolated heavy rain threat. Nely winds will bring a slightly cooler and drier airmass for Friday as high pressure builds from the nrn Great Lakes into WI. Seasonal temps and humidity is forecast. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Saturday through Wednesday: Primarily dry weather is predicted this weekend through the middle of next week. An upper-level ridge building over the Plains and moving toward the Great Lakes region this weekend with high geopotential height values alongside a surface high pressure system are likely to persist during this period. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 80s range, increasing into the low 90s next week. Zawlocki/Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Sct-bkn035-040 cumulus this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and isold storms will affect far se WI early this afternoon, then widespread showers and scattered storms this evening toward central and sw WI. Areas of MVFR Cigs via stratus will then develop from central WI toward srn WI early Thu AM and linger through the afternoon. Patchy light fog may also develop late tnt into Thu AM especially toward central and south central WI. More scattered showers and storms are forecast on Thu. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure around 30.1 inches will remain over the Ohio Valley today and tonight. Modest south winds will continue today, as weak low pressure around 29.8 inches and an accompanying cold front approaches from Upper Michigan and northwest Wisconsin. Light to modest southerly winds tonight will become north behind the frontal passage Thursday into Thursday night. Winds will become north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.1 inches builds into the the region. The high should continue to bring light to modest winds for the weekend. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  693 FXUS66 KSGX 081855 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1155 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A strong area of high pressure will bring hot weather through the middle of the week for areas away from the coast. Slight cooling occurs by the weekend as high pressure moves to the northeast. In its wake, monsoonal moisture moves into the region on Sunday into at least the first half of next week. This will bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances to inland areas with greater humidity for the entire region. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... It's getting warm out there...highs by late morning have eclipsed 100 degrees in parts of the lower deserts. A lovely walk outside our office was had, but that early July sun angle definitely made those 70s feel quite toasty! Moderate (level 3 of 5) to Major (level 4 of 5) HeatRisk is now expected for inland regions through Friday, as the heat alerts have been extended one more day. We would like to remind everyone to practice good heat safety: drink plenty of water, seek shade, and take breaks if working/spending time outside, and check on family, friends, and neighbors. Hiking in the mountains is also discouraged! During this time period, high temperatures in the lower desert will be near 115 degrees and near 100 to 110 in the high desert. Areas of the Inland Empire will warm up to 105 degrees each day as well, with plentiful 90s in the SD/RIV County mountains and inland valleys. Low temperatures will cool off pretty well for most areas, but the lower deserts will remain warm in the upper 70s and 80s. The area of high pressure over the region this week will move to the northeast by this weekend. This will give the opportunity for the flow aloft to move in from the southeast, bringing in greater monsoonal moisture to the region in the form of higher humidity and chances for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday will remain dry, where humidity will first start to increase. Models indicate PWAT's peaking by Sunday through Monday, along with a noted indication of increased CAPE across inland areas. Southeast flow aloft becomes more apparent by Sunday (possibly as early as early Sunday morning), where slight chances of rain begin to be introduced for parts of the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across primarily the mountains and deserts, locally into the eastern parts of the valleys in Inland Empire and San Diego County, through at least the middle of next week. The forecast shows the highest chances of storms on Monday afternoon across our mountain areas. With this flow pattern, higher humidity will remain across the entire region, including coastal areas, for this weekend into the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... 081730Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds have cleared inland locations but are hanging onto the OC coast and a few areas of the SD coast. These low clouds based around 1,400ft MSL should clear at least OC in the next hour with a 30-40% chance of it sticking along areas of the SD coast through 20Z. VFR conditions will prevail through 02-04Z when low clouds with bases 700-1,100ft MSL will start developing along SD coast. Low clouds will increase in coverage and push north and inland up to 20 miles 07-09Z. Clouds will begin to clear inland locations after 15Z, clearing most coastal sites by 18Z. .Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane