861 FXUS61 KBOX 081900 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Rip Current Statement is in effect through this evening for eastern and ocean facing beaches in Massachusetts. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 pm this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Becoming warmer with increasing humidity through the end of the work week. - Warm, humid weather returns late in the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days but better chances looking to be on Friday. - Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Becoming warmer with increasing humidity through the end of the work week. High pressure and mostly clear skies continue through most of Thursday. 925mb temperatures rising to near 20C and plenty of sunshine will allow for surface temperatures to begin to creep up above seasonable norms... likely near 90 across most of southern New England by Thursday. Humidity will begin to increase under broad WSW flow, with dewpoints increasing to near or just above 70 (at times) Thursday. A cold front moving through Thursday evening could bring chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the night/overnight, but the highest risk currently remains in western MA. A Rip Current Statement has also been issued through this evening for eastern MA, primarily for ocean facing beaches, due to prolonged northeasterly flow and 5+ ft seas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered thunderstorms along a cold front Friday afternoon to early evening. Although severe weather potential looks minimal at this time, lightning and torrential downpours are the main risks. Warm and humid weather continues into Friday to go along with partly to mostly cloudy skies. A cold front will be gradually sagging southward from northern New England during the early afternoon in northern MA and reaching the southern CT-RI-MA coastline by early evening. This will pose a better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop than compared to Thursday. The biggest uncertainties specific to the thunderstorm forecast are the degree of instability we can muster and how quickly will the front progress offshore. Both the 12z NAM and 12z GFS capture the instability envelope well, with the NAM's CAPE values around 1500- 2500 J/kg due to its high-dewpoint bias, while the GFS's overmixing bias shows considerably lower values at around 500 J/kg or less. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle; shear values are also on the lower side at around 30 kt, which should mitigate or limit any organized severe weather potential outside of water-loaded downdrafts. The main risks looks to be lightning and slow-moving heavy downpours, which could lead to instances of street flooding in areas that see repeated thunderstorms. Latest guidance indicates 700- 500 mb heights which become increasingly parallel to the southward- sagging frontal boundary, which adds to the risk for slower- moving storms and also casts some uncertainty when we clear out, with the Canadian guidance suggesting post-frontal light rains lingering into part of Saturday along the South Coast. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend into early next week. Even if the cold front from Friday night takes a little bit longer to fully clear out from the South Coast, we should be trending drier by Saturday late morning. The 500 mb pattern then transitions to one of cyclonic flow/troughing in the mean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to mid 80s) and lower humidity levels than experienced for late in the week. Weekend appears favorable for outdoor plans withnice summer weather. We'll be on the far western periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge which latest guidance still shows reaching to nearly 600 dm building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We still might need to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the ridge but it looks as though the weekend into early next week ends up drier than not. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. Light and variable winds away from the south coastal terminals, except a seabreeze at BOS until 00-02z. FEW-SCT cloud deck around 4kft Wednesday night...High confidence. VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts. Thursday...High confidence. VFR. SW winds 8-12 kts with gusts 20-25 kts. Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible after 20Z. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Friday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Morning...High confidence. SCA conditions continue in the the coastal waters through this evening with NE wind gusts around 25 kts. Conditions improve overnight into Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. A weak front approaches the region later Thursday with showers and thunderstorms possible over the southern waters. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007- 014>016-019-022-024. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250- 254-255. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/McMinn AVIATION...Loconto/McMinn MARINE...Loconto/McMinn  044 FXUS62 KILM 081902 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking. && .KEY MESSAGES... -1)The heatwave continues in the near term. 2)Releif from the heat and good rain chances in the offering this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...The heatwave continues in the near term. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Although the ridge that has been overhead will flatten in the coming days it will take a more significant shift in the synoptic pattern to temper afternoon heat below advisory thresholds through Saturday. The low amplitude aloft that results of the flattened ridge will help some lower dewpoints to mix down away from the coast for HI values that remain in advisory thresholds as they did today. Of lower confidence is areas close to the coast where dewpoints could remain higher and HI values get closer to but generally fall short of Warning criteria as they did today. For this reason and to avoid possibly confusing double headlines have held off on a Heat Watch for tomorrow especially after collab w neighbors where we feel HI values will fall short (except for CHS where higher dewpoints have pooled and HIs of 110+ have materialized). KEY MESSAGE 2...Releif from the heat and good rain chances in the offering this weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The pattern change needed as mentioned above may take place on Sunday. The ridge that has been plaguing the east for quite some time will be shifting over the west-central part of the nation and be amplifying considerably. This will drive a cold front into the area. With plenty of antecedent heat and moisture the setup should be quite stormy Sunday and Monday, some storms possibly on the strong side. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR for the most part. Storm coverage much lower today and favoring NC and less so the seabreeze. FLO probably stays dry. Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... Little to no deviations from SW flow as typical of the time of year. Wind speeds do increase Thursday into Friday as Atlantic High retrogrades and the Piedmont trough strengthens. A window of SCA late Friday or Friday night. A cold front on Sunday will bring veering winds even as speeds tick down a bit, but wave faces could still steepen from the directional variability. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096- 099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ039- 054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB KEY MESSAGES...MBB DISCUSSION...MBB AVIATION...MBB MARINE...MBB  139 FXUS65 KREV 081903 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1203 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds will pose fire and recreation concerns each afternoon through Saturday. * Increasing temperatures into the weekend will bring areas of moderate to locally major HeatRisk for Saturday. * A monsoonal pattern may increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION... The summer time pattern of recent has featured subtle ridging to our south with the Aleutian Low spinning on the Gulf of Alaska kicking shortwaves into the periphery of the ridge. This is the case again today, with an increased afternoon gusts as the noticeable effect. We will see gusts reaching 30-35 mph today, with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s and isolated areas near 100 for western Nevada. Sierra valleys will see highs in the 80s, with locations along US-395 climbing toward 90. The warming trend will continue as the weekend approaches, with yet another wrinkle of a shortwave in the flow increasing afternoon gusts again for Friday. These elevated winds will bring impacts to recreation, such as choppy lakes in the afternoons. Additionally, localized areas of elevated fire weather concerns today due to low relative humidities aligning with the timing of the afternoon gusts arrive this afternoon and again for Friday afternoon. See the Fire Weather section of this discussion for details. As we heat up into the weekend, anticipate isolated areas of Major HeatRisk across the warmer valleys of western Nevada, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the majority of northeastern California and northwestern Nevada for Saturday. This warming trend will be on the decline Sunday into Monday as yet another shortwave spins off the parent Aleutian Low and migrates toward our region. A nudge in the center of the ridge circulation to our east may allow a monsoonal flow to set up for midweek, but confidence is low on timing and location with variance in model solutions at this time. HRICH && .AVIATION... * Widespread VFR across the region with increasing afternoon westerly gusts 25-30 kts. Thursday will have VFR conditions with afternoon westerly gusts 20-25 kts. Friday will be similar to today, with westerly afternoon gusts returning to 25-30 kts. HRICH && .FIRE WEATHER... * Increasing afternoon westerly gusts of 30-35 mph today will align with areas of low RH (6-15%) for the Sierra Front, Basin and Range and isolated valleys along the Sierra. This will bring a couple hours of isolated elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. Similar conditions return for Friday. HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  158 FXUS63 KTOP 081904 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are expected to move across the area tonight. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain being the main hazards. - Low chances (15-30%) for showers/storms during the daytime hours Thursday and Friday with higher chances (30-60%) Thursday night and Friday night. - Temperatures hold near average through the weekend, then gradually warm up next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Quasi-zonal flow resides across the Central Plains this afternoon with a surface low located over eastern Colorado. Ahead of this feature, increased southerly winds and deeper mixing have bumped temperatures into the low to mid 90s with heat index values approaching 100 in some areas. A MCV spinning over central Kansas has produced some showers and isolated thunderstorms and the potential for isolated showers/storms will continue as this features shifts east into an unstable and uncapped airmass this afternoon. Weak shear should preclude any severe potential, although inverted-V soundings would support stronger wind gusts if any storm does develop. The evolution of this MCV does lead to at least some additional uncertainty in how convection evolves this evening, but overall thinking remains consistent with previous shifts. As energy moves through the mean flow, convection will spark near the surface low across western Kansas and along a surface boundary in eastern/southern Nebraska and move into the area from the north and west. CAMs have been inconsistent in timing, coverage, and intensity of storms, although recent runs have come into better agreement in WAA showers/storms forming ahead of any complex that moves south out of Nebraska or in from the west. Best chances for severe weather will be with any line segment that does move into the area. An increasing cap along with decreasing instability through the overnight hours should still work to weaken storms as they push south early Thursday. Damaging wind gusts of 60-65 MPH remain the main severe hazard. PWATs around 1.75" will support heavy downpours and the potential for locally heavy rainfall, but the progression of storms should keep any flooding isolated in nature. Showers and storms exit the area by mid-morning Thursday as the front sags into east central Kansas and stalls. Highs on Thursday will be dependent upon how far south the front makes it and where any residual outflow boundary and cloud cover reside. There could be a large temperature gradient across the area, ranging from the low to mid 90s across central and north-central Kansas down to the low to mid 80s across far northeast Kansas. Any additional development during the afternoon and evening would likely be focused near the surface front that is progged to lie near the I-35 corridor. Another complex of storms that develops across the High Plains will work towards the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. The severe potential is low again with this round, but there could be some strong wind gusts with this activity. A similar set-up appears likely for Friday; low chance for an afternoon or evening storm with increasing shower/storm chances Friday night into Saturday morning. The boundary slowly oozes south early next week as mid-level ridging expands south and east across the central CONUS. Dry and hotter conditions are likely through the middle of next week, with some uncertainty in how hot temperatures will reach. The NBM is on the upper-end of the ensemble envelope with highs in the mid to upper 90s. While temperatures of this magnitude are plausible, easterly winds through the entire troposphere donot seem overly conducive for this level of heat. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions continue through this evening before showers/storms approach terminals after 06z. Guidance has been a bit inconsistent in timing and coverage of storms, but confidence is high enough to include mention of TS for a few hours. Storms move east of terminals around sunrise Thursday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan  390 FXUS63 KFSD 081908 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The potential for strong to severe storms will return to the area from 4 pm to 10 pm. Large hail up to half dollar size and damaging winds to 65 mph are the main hazards. Locally heavy rain could result in ponding in low-lying/urban areas. - High temperatures remain on track to rise to the 90s to 100 degree mark towards this weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few light rain showers persist across mainly northwest Iowa this afternoon. A surface trough and associated cold front continue to track through the forecast area early this afternoon. The mid level clouds associated with these light rain showers continue to sit over mainly northwest Iowa and surrounding locations. This has prevented locations in this area from heating out. The cooler temperatures look to also delay new convective development as the cold front pushes into this area. Still, these clouds look to clear/break up enough to allow adequate instability to develop with a magnitude up to about 2,000 J/kg over the course of the afternoon timeframe. Vertical shear values will be on the weaker side of things with a magnitude of roughly 20-30 knots. Latest hi-res guidance shows that a small, bi-modal severe weather event is on the table for this afternoon and evening. Storms look to develop on both the pre- frontal trough and trailing cold front. Storm development looks to take place across mainly northwest Iowa and adjacent areas this afternoon with a timeframe from from about 4 pm to 10 pm. With the cold frontal forcing, storms look to grow into a line as they push out of the area this evening. While vertical shear magnitudes will be on the lower side, hodographs show a weak but classic veer-back profile. With weak cold advection aloft, lapse rates will steepen just a bit more and allow for a large hail threat. Soundings do show slightly more saturated profiles in the hail growth zone (HGZ) which will tone down the hail threat a bit, with some of the largest stones growing up to half dollar size. DCAPE values will be sufficient with values up to 800 to 1,000 J/kg, keeping a damaging wind threat in place with the strongest gusts up to 65 mph. The large hail threat will come with the initial storm development before transitioning to a damaging wind threat as storms grow upscale. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall could result in localized ponding in low lying/urban areas as storms roll through. The storm threat will end this evening, leaving mostly quiet conditions for the overnight hours. Low temperatures will fall to the 60s. Seasonable and mostly dry conditions will return for the end of the week with high temperatures remaining in the 80s to just touching 90F. Winds will be light, making for a pleasant Thursday and Friday. Heights begin to rise aloft on Saturday, beginning to warm temperatures with highs rising to the 80s and 90s. Sunday will kick off the first day of near to above normal temperatures as medium range and ensemble guidance show a 600 dam ridge building into the Northern Plains. This ridge looks to persist through the first half of next week, brining hot and humid conditions with it. The ensembles show a 60-100% chance for highs to exceed 90F Sunday through Tuesday near and west of I-29. Chances for exceeding 100F drop to 40-70% for the same period of time with Tuesday having the highest probabilities. The ensembles also show a broad 40-100% chance for dew points to exceed 60F as well. All these probabilities to say that hot and humid conditions are expected late this weekend and into early next week. A few ensemble members show the ridge beginningto flatten next Wednesday which could begin to trend temperatures down. There remains uncertainty regarding how long the ridge remains strong so something to keep an eye on heading forward. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Latest satellite shows a mix of mid/upper level clouds and low level stratus across the area this afternoon. The low level stratus is sitting at MVFR/IFR levels with no obstruction to visibility. This stratus has been persistent across KHON and continues to push southeast just behind an advancing cold front. Should see this stratus make it into KFSD just after the period begins. This front will also be responsible for new thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening, primarily across parts of northwest Iowa and adjacent areas. As of now, the new storms may develop just east of both KFSD and KSUX. Have left only PROB30 groups in their TAFs but this may change as confidence in storm location increases. The storms will push out of the area this evening as winds turn northerly behind the front. Additional MVFR/IFR stratus looks to develop late tonight along and east of I-29. This new stratus looks to continue into the morning hours before dissipating to end the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...Meyers  369 FXUS63 KGLD 081908 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 108 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This afternoon, we are still expecting temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s across the CWA, likely the warmest of the week. There is a weak stationary boundary that is set up over northeastern Colorado. This may form some weak showers early this afternoon, which could drain some of the instability from the environment for the storms later today. There is only a 5-10% chance of this occurring though. The main line of storms will be coming from a 500 mb shortwave trough. Overall, today is a stronger copy of Tuesday. Storms look to be entering the western CWA around 22-0Z. Most likely, we will see a broken line of storms fire off in eastern Colorado and fill into a QLCS by 0-3Z. Wind is the primary threat with these storms, especially if a bowing segment in the QLCS is able to form. Winds up to 85 MPH would be possible in this case, which would create a blowing dust hazard, maybe even a haboob. Most likely, wind gusts will be in the 55-70 MPH range, which could lead to blowing dust, but a haboob becomes slightly less likely and localized plumes of dust would become the hazard. Effective shear looks to be on the low-end side for this event, mainly in the 20-35 kts range. This is still enough for some severe hail to form, but makes it less likely. LCLs are forecast to be above 2 km. That combined with the poor shear means tornadoes are extremely unlikely this evening. The severe threat looks to end around 6Z, but showers may linger until closer to 9-12Z. Over the past multiple runs, the NAMNest has been showing a second solution to today's convection. This would have a cell form around or south of Limon, CO and move to the southeast in the early evening. Then, around 4-5Z, around the Tri-State border, another round of storms fires and move to the east-southeast. This solution is less likely, but if it occurs the wind threat lowers significantly, the hail threat increases to 2 inches being possible, and severe convection may last until closer to 9Z. In addition to these threats, there is a 25% chance that some backbuilding fingers from the main line of convection produce 1-2 inches of rain. It's unlikely, but this could produce localized flash flooding overnight tonight. Tomorrow's severe threat is very similar to today, with slightly better shear. Low level flow may be a few knots higher, which looks to push effective shear closer to the 35 kts mark. This increases the likelihood of hail, but maximum hail size remains around 1.75 inches. There is a slightly higher chance of a brief tornado, but still less than 2%. Models are in better agreement that tomorrow will be a QLCS moving across the CWA with wind being the primary threat, still. The dust potential does decrease due to recent precipitation, but is still a possibility. Once again, a 500 mb shortwave trough looks to spark off the main wave of storms, entering the CWA around 22-0Z. However, there is a 20% chance that another weak boundary fires off some weak showers and storms in eastern Colorado around 18-20Z. This convection may once again lower instability and decrease the severe risk for Friday evening. The main wave of the convection looks to have severe potential until around 6-9Z Friday morning. As far as a flooding threat, this increases with Thursday night's storms. PWATS in the 1.2-1.6 inch range are expected and there are more models that are trying to show leading edge and backbuilding fingers of convection. This could lead to precipitation totals in the 2-4 inch range. Combined with tonight's precipitation, this increases the overnight flash flooding risk to around 30%. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today, but still in the 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to remain around 60s in the western CWA and around 70 in the eastern CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday appears to be the last in a series of days with diurnally driven thunderstorms developing and persisting through the evening hours. Confidence in this time period is somewhat lower than normal since it will strongly depend on how thunderstorms develop tonight and tomorrow night. That being said, general pattern appears to hold frontal zone to the south of area, with generally easterly upslope flow throughout the day. Best large scale forcing for ascent appears to just skirt the CWA south of Interstate 70 as weak H7-H5 low moves into SW Kansas. As mentioned before, confidence in details is low at this point and time but overall pattern supports another round of thunderstorms developing over higher terrain and moving to the east southeast in the evening hours. Directional shear will be better than previous days, although overall wind speeds aloft are on the weaker side Friday will likely provide the best shear profiles for organized storms. Similar to the past few days, highest threat will be for organized areas of damaging winds through the evening followed by threat for hail in the 1" to 1.75" range. Blowing dust threat will depend greatly on how and where precipitation falls on Thursday and morning cloud cover. Confidence in these specifics are very low at this point however, resulting in low confidence in dust threat. Region will move into a warm and dry pattern as strong H5 597 dm ridge develops and builds into the northern plains through the start of the week. While there is a small threat for precipitation/thunderstorms on periphery of the H5 ridge Saturday this potential drops off rapidly through the rest of the period as subsidence under strong ridge. With probabilities of this magnitude of ridging fairly high based on ensemble probabilities, confidence in hot and overall dry weather is high. With temperatures climbing into the 90s, possibly upper 90s by mid week, the primary expected impacts. Right now, dewpoints should remain high enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions, but will have to keep a close eye on heat indices through the start of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1043 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KMCK and KGLD through the period. Winds are forecast to be fairly light this afternoon, favoring an east-northeasterly direction. Storms look to move through the region this evening into the overnight hours. Expect strong gusts with the leading edge of the storms from the northwest, potentially with blowing dust too. Behind the storms, winds will favor a northwesterly direction, before favoring a northeasterly direction later in the morning Thursday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...CA  428 FXUS63 KDTX 081909 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance of showers and non-severe thunderstorms along and north of I-69 this evening and tonight. - Thunderstorms will spread southward while increasing in coverage and intensity Thursday and Thursday night. Isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards. The best chance for the marginally severe storms looks to be across the Detroit Metro Area and points south Thursday afternoon and evening. - Dry weather with near-normal temperatures settles in for the weekend. - A heat wave is possible next week (3 consecutive days of 90+ degrees). && .DISCUSSION... Gradual height falls into tomorrow as a series of upper level disturbances track through the Great Lakes region, helping to slowly drive the cold front and moisture plume over the northern Great Lakes south. Although the 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge does weaken and becomes less organized tomorrow. Will continue to favor the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity over the north half of the CWA this evening into tomorrow morning. In line with the 12z HRRR, it looks like the bulk of activity in the late afternoon will reside over the Detroit Metro area and locations south. Bulk of model solutions still only indicating MLcapes up around 1000 J/kg with weak wind shear (25 knots or less of 0-6 KM bulk shear). NAM remains one of the more aggressive solutions, with MLcapes of 1500-2000 J/kg. With higher DCAPE values and machine learning highlighting Detroit Metro area with damaging wind threat, marginal risk still looks justified. With weak mid level lapse rates and weaker wind fields, we would expect mostly strong, sub-severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours. The cold front looks to reach the southern Michigan border by 12z Friday, and then more or less holds stationary or washes out. There is a low chance of some spotty leftover showers across south half of the CWA Friday morning, with a diurnal flareup possible in the afternoon as main 500 MB trough axis crosses Lake Michigan. A building upper level ridge (~600 DAM at 500 MB) will establish over the Northern Plains this weekend. The ridge center looks to be far enough west that the Central Great Lakes will remain on the fringe and susceptible to a shortwave or two diving southeast from Central Canada, triggering isolated-scattered showers for the second half of the weekend into Monday. The upper level ridge then looks to fold over and an extension of the west-east axis arrives for Tuesday and lingers in Wednesday. Highs in the low to mid 90s looks likely both those days, but with manageable dew pts in the low to mid 60s expected, heat indices look to fall short of 100 degrees. && .MARINE... Southern Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie shore look to remain relatively calm this evening through the overnight hours with a light breeze out of the southwest. Northern Lake Huron and the Saginaw Bay area have the possibility of some rain showers tonight, along with some modest wind flow veering from the south to southwest through the overnight hours. Winds can be expected to be in the 10 to 15 knot range this afternoon/evening, with gusts of 20 knots possible. Any thunderstorm threat this evening would be limited to the bay area, where locally strong wind gusts could occur. Tomorrow we expect to have a weak low pressure system trek across North Lower Michigan, bringing the chance for showers and even an isolated severe weather threat from Saginaw Bay down to the Lake Erie shore. The main threat for any thunderstorms that could develop tomorrow would be damaging wind gusts. Nonetheless Lake Huron and Saginaw bay can expect light winds veering from the southwest to the north throughout the day tomorrow, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible depending on the positioning of the low pressure tomorrow. Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie shore can expect light winds as well tomorrow veering from the southwest to the west throughout the day tomorrow. Friday onwards a high pressure system is expected to develop over the region, bringing warmer and calmer weather throughout the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... A slow moving cold front settles through southern Lower Michigan Thursday and Thursday night, serving as the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area. Basin average rainfall of a quarter to half an inch is expected, with a chance of near 1 inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm coverage. The slow movement of the front could also produce more than one round of thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than 1 inch within a few hours time. Flooding potential in this scenario is still limited to minor flooding of urban and other prone areas. Scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers into Friday, mainly south of M-59, before coming to an end Friday evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 AVIATION... Diurnal cumulus field based from 4-6 kft AGL has filled in this afternoon with periods of SCT-BKN coverage, amidst a deepening boundary-layer. The high pressure influence preserves VFR conditions through the rest of today, for all Southeast Michigan terminals. Winds remain light, AOB 10 knots, generally holding from the west- southwest. Lighter overnight winds trend toward calm, late. A slow moving frontal boundary will drift south across southern Lower Michigan on Thursday leading to showers and thunderstorms. At this time, only have enough confidence that MBS and FNT will get showers and storms before 18Z Thursday. Did add PROB30 groups to establish an initial onset time for those terminals, with an earlier introduction of rain for MBS. High degree of uncertainty with overnight potential for perhaps several rounds of showers/storms glancing MBS. D21/DTW Convection...Scattered thunderstorms are possible as early as 17Z Thursday afternoon, but are more likely to arrive/develop closer to 19Z. Two or three total rounds of storms are possible before Friday morning. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceiling at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon. * Medium for thunder Thursday afternoon and/or evening. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......ZB/TF HYDROLOGY....SF AVIATION.....KGK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  510 FXUS63 KEAX 081910 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 210 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Our stretch of dry weather comes to an end late tonight into early tomorrow morning and this wetter pattern will continue into the weekend. - Strong to severe storms will be possible with strong winds and heavy rainfall as the primary risks. - Hot and dry weather returns next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight into Tomorrow... The upper level pattern looks to become more active as multiple shortwaves moves through the central CONUS. After one last day of quieter summer weather today the first round of weather looks to arrive late tonight into tomorrow morning. Storms are expected to initiate across the Upper Midwest and High Plains this evening near the cold front and track east this evening into tonight. The primary severe environment is where SPC has their highest risks are well to our west. Upscale growth into a MCS is very possible and this occurrence is what could give us a severe risk. Many of the CAMs show some amount of upscale growth, so it does seem like the more likely solution. If a MCS can develop with the aid of a robust LLJ we could see the MCS maintain itself well into eastern Kansas and Missouri. The primary threat with this will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. As the LLJ decouples, the storm would start to fall apart. How far east this gets before falling apart will play a key role in the rest of the day on Thursday. If it gets deep into Missouri before falling apart this will keep us cloudier and cooler keeping heat risks much lower. The forecast has clearly trended more in this direction over the past day. More of the spread now between the modeling systems is how far south to take this cooler solution. North of I-70 seems most likely, but some take it even farther. For later in the day the better environment does seem to be to the east and south, but storms could well initiate over western Missouri. Recent trends have started to favor farther east and SPC has updated their slight risk for tomorrow farther east to account for this. Once again how the morning plays out will be key as if we see an MCS a it may leave behind a MCV and that would be a favored area for additional CI. The more organized convection with the larger wind threat likely seems east where more destabilization will occur or farther south closer to the warm front. Friday into the Weekend... Thursday's warm front will continue north and likely stall out over us Friday and Saturday before finally moving out on Sunday. This will provide more lift for additional rain chances. Looking towards the global ensembles there is signal for rain all the way through Sunday evening when spread starts to increase with more dry members starting to show up. This does not look like it will be a rain all the time kind of setup, but more of an intermittent rain. Timing when this will start and stop at this range is not something that can be done with much accuracy. Instability will be sufficient for thunderstorms, but the shear profile does not look as favorable for severe storms. However anytime you get instability with steep lapse rates some stronger storms are possible and with this SPC does have a marginal risk south of I-70 on Friday. Next Week... There is strong agreement between the global deterministic models that a large ridge will develop over the central CONUS early next week. There is more variability in how this evolves over the rest of the week. This favors a return to hotter and dry weather for the next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The same quiet aviation weather that we have seen overthe past few days will continue through the evening. Late tonight into tomorrow morning this will change as showers and storms move in from the west. This could lead to a period of MVFR in the heavier showers/storms. Kept with the PROB30 for now as there is still uncertainty on the exact timing of when this would pass each terminal and how strong they will be. The environment ahead of the storms will be dependent on how strong of a LLJ forms. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Carletta AVIATION...Carletta  618 FXUS63 KGID 081910 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 210 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms, a few severe, is expected this evening between mainly 6PM and 3AM. Hail up to the size of half dollars with wind gusts up to near 70MPH will be possible within the strongest storms. - A few more scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night for mainly a few western and southern portions of the area. Hail up to the size of golfballs with wind gusts up to near 60MPH may be possible. - Though a small 10-30% storm chance returns Friday night, the rest of the 7-day forecast period will be favored to remain dry (10-40% chance of >0.1" of precipitation) - Temperatures are expected to warm up over the weekend with at least a 4+ day streak of 90+ degree highs expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight and Thursday... A cold front, currently draped across northern Nebraska, will later be expected to dip southward into much of south central Nebraska this evening and later on into north central Kansas overnight. A few storms will be expected to fire up along this front between mainly 6PM and 3AM as the front drifts southward. In addition, a cluster of scattered storms (recently observed cumulus expanding across northeast Colorado) will later be expected to roll in from off the High Plains. These storms will possibly merge with activity developing along the cold front, expanding the coverage of and extending the time of lingering storms through the early morning hours of Thursday. The latest high-resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) guidance has recently backed precipitation potential off by around 20% with a now a more broad range forecast of 30-70% PoPs across the area for tonight. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST models have come in a bit drier (more scattered storm coverage) and continue to diverge on when and where the best storm potential will come. The HRRR is more aggressive with the earlier convection occurring along the cold front between mainly 5PM and midnight. As result, the HRRR keeps the bulk of the storms mainly north of I-80. The NAMNEST on the other hand is more aggressive with the overnight convection rolling in from the high plains. As result, it keeps a majority of the storms concentrated south of I-80 and later in the night (2-8AM). In reality, the best scenario tonight would likely be a combination of the two scenarios where a few storms do initially form along the front and approach later in the night from the west. Given somewhat favorable conditions for thunderstorm maintenance (1,500-2,5000J/kg of MUCAPE with 25-40kts of bulk shear), it is more than reasonable to suspect that a few of these storms would be able to take on some strong to severe characteristics. Though hail up to the size of half dollars may be possible, the hail threat will mainly fall within the initial storms firing up along the front. The main severe threat tonight, however, will likely be the potential for gusty winds up to near 70MPH, especially within storms racing in from the west. The main uncertainty for severe weather this evening will be if the storms firing along the front earlier in the evening/night inhibit the severe potential for the later storms coming in from the west. There is somewhat of a concern if the convection along the front may undercut the severe threat overnight to a degree, though the presence of a steady 20-30kts low-level jet across north central Kansas may also play a small role. In addition, the merging of these two storms clusters could create an expansive area of heavy downpours. The possibility of 1" per hour rainfall rates (1.5-1.8" PWAT values) mixed in with the potential for multiplewaves of thunderstorm activity could bring meaningful precipitation amounts (up to 1-2+") to a handful of locations (10- 20% of the coverage area). The Weather Prediction Center has also introduced a slight risk of excessive rainfall (15-40% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point) to the full area. Given the overall decrease in expected storm coverage, the flash flood potential has also overall decreased some as well. Beyond the precipitation chances tonight, the light to steady surface winds (5-15MPH) will back from the southerly directions this afternoon to an easterly one overnight. Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will drop highs to the mid 80s to low 90s for Thursday. Though the potential for severe weather returns Thursday night (Marginal risk for western and southern portions of the area), the overall storm coverage may likely be more isolated and concentrated towards far west/south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A few storms, again racing out from off the High Plains just after 10PM, will have to potential to clip a few western/southern portions of the area. These storms, given the time of night, will probably be on a downward trend, leading us to speculate that the severe threat should mostly be more isolated rather than widespread. Friday into Next Week... Though one final low-end chance for storms does lie Friday night (10- 30% chances), the main story Friday into next week will be the heat. Highs Friday through the middle of next week will begin a gradual climb from the mid to upper 80s to the low to mid 90s. This warm up will come as a massive ridge is favored to form across much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions starting on Saturday. This ridging pattern is in good agreement within the long-range ensembles to stick around for most if not all of next week (>80% confidence). The presence of this massive ridge should bring warm, subsiding air to the region that will work to thwart off most of the precipitation potential next week. (The LREF {Long Range Ensemble Forecast} only shows a 10-40% chance for at least 0.1" of precipitation through the week). The main uncertainty at this time will be for how substantial the warmup will become (will highs next week peak in the upper 90s or low 100s?). What does look almost certain will be the presence of a streak of 90+ degree days. The only forecast element that could keep such a streak from taking place would be from a rogue daytime thunderstorm or excessive cloud cover that manages to peak in (not very likely to occur underneath such pattern). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR conditions may be possible between 12-15z for KGRI with bases expected to remain in VFR conditions thorough the rest of the day/night. The main aviation impact within the 18z TAF would be from a few storms (possibly severe) that will near and potentially pass between the terminals between mainly 0-8z following the passing of a cold front. There is a chance for a stronger to severe storm to near/clip either one the of TAF sites between mainly 2-5z. Gusty winds and hail may be possible. Surface winds today should soon hang out of the south before meandering over to a northerly direction overnight and a northeasterly direction Wednesday morning. Beyond the influence from a evening thunderstorm, wind gusts are not expected to exceed 20kts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Stump  766 FXHW60 PHFO 081912 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 912 AM HST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trades deliver showers windward and mauka into the weekend. Potential for several hours of moderate rain along select windward slopes tonight potentially lingering into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... A well-developed and weakly convergent band of shower bearing cu is advancing toward Windward Maui and the Hamakua Coast of the Big Island at press time this morning. Given orientation perpendicular to the island chain and appearance on visible satellite, suspect a few inches of rain will be possible for select windward locales tonight. Primary concern is potential for this feature to shear apart as it encounters acceleration of the boundary layer flow upon approaching the Alenuihaha Channel between the Big Island and Maui. For that reason, and because guidance demonstrates questionable handling of this feature, will leave official forecast untouched pending further observational evidence this afternoon. Regardless, some degree of enahnced showers can be expected from Windward Kauai through the Hamakua Coast tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM HST Wed Jul 8 2026 Current radar and satellite imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward and mauka areas on the trade wind flow this morning. Strong high pressure centered far north of the state will continue to drive breezy to windy trades across the region through the weekend. Looking aloft, Hawaii will remain under weak ridging through early next week as it lies between two upper- level lows, one to the east, the other to the west. The breezy to windy trades will generally focus clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas throughout the period. However, batches of deep tropical moisture will move across the area tonight through Friday night, again Sunday into Monday, and more will follow next week. As these batches of deeper moisture move through with PWATs reaching 1.5 to 2 inches, the inversion will weaken and lift, increasing shower coverage and frequency across the state. In addition to the potential for an uptick in shower activity, dew points will be on the rise, leading to muggier conditions through the weekend. && .AVIATION... Breezy to locally strong trades will continue today and once again bring low clouds and scattered showers predominately to windward and mountain areas. There will also be isolated spillover into leeward sites. VFR will prevail for most sites, with occasional localized MVFR mainly for windward/mountain sites associated with the shower activity. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 AM HST Wed Jul 8 2026 Strong high pressure remains centered north of the state, which is driving fresh to strong trade winds across all coastal waters. No ASCAT pass available overnight, but hi-resolution guidance keeps Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds in many of the coastal water zones though tonight, so will be extending the current SCA through then. Very little chance is expected to the strength of the high or the pressure gradient across the islands, so will continue to remain around the advisory threshold for most waters over the coming days. Windy zones around Big Island and Maui County will likely be extended beyond tonight at a minimum for the SCA, with the possibility of more zones. A moderate, medium period south southwest (190-200 degrees) swell continues to generate moderate surf below advisory criteria along south facing shores. This swell energy will gradually lower through the remainder of the week. Expect small surf for south facing shores leading into this weekend, with mainly background energy. Another moderate, long-period south southwest swell (210 degrees) is expected to fill in Saturday night, but due to the direction of the source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell. Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. A small, moderate period west (280 degrees) swell is expected to arrive this weekend and linger into early next week. No significant swells are expected out of the north or northwest. Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the second half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...JVC DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Tsamous MARINE...Foster  728 FXUS61 KCTP 081912 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 312 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Upgrade to level 2/4 excessive rain and flash flood risk for south central and southeast PA Thursday afternoon & evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Torrential downpours and strong to locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may impact portions of south central PA Thursday afternoon and evening && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Torrential downpours and strong to locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may impact portions of south central PA Thursday afternoon and evening Most CAM guidance indicates a forward-propagating tstm cluster moving across southern PA/northern MD and the DelMarVa area tomorrow afternoon before tracking offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by late evening. SPC upgraded to a level 2/5 SLGT risk which clips southern York and Lancaster Counties. The remainder of the Lower Susquehanna Valley is in a level 1/5 MRGL risk with potential for strong to perhaps locally damaging wind gusts dependent/contingent on location of strongest storms. The best CAPE and shear overlap is forecast farther to the south over the DelMarVa. HREF shows 2+ inch pwats available this area to drive very intense rain rates and increased flash flood risk. WPC will upgrade the excessive rainfall outlook to level 2/4 for Thursday in their updated forecast later this afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sub-VFR ceilings and visibility have improved to VFR at most terminals as of 18Z. Outside of a brief shower/t-storm downpour in the vicinity of KJST/KAOO/KUNV, expect VFR flying to continue into early tonight with waning shower activity. Outlook... Thu-Fri...T-storm impacts likely during the afternoon. AM low clouds and fog possible. Sat...Reduced chance and more limited coverage of PM showers/t-storm. Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR/no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Steinbugl  785 FXUS63 KLMK 081912 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 312 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds late this afternoon and evening. * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. * A drier overall pattern looks to take hold for early to middle next week. Look for highs in the upper 80s to near 90. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Now - Tonight... The closed upper low that has plagued the region for the past several days will finally get picked up by the prevailing westerlies this evening, and exit the region later tonight as an open shortwave. Ahead of this feature, PWATs have pooled into the 2-2.1" range throughout the column. The lack of deep layer shear is promoting slow storm movement, and with tall/skinny CAPE profiles combined with deep freezing levels above 14K feet, efficient heavy rainers will occur. Localized Flash Flooding will continue to be a threat through this afternoon and evening with HREF LMPP data suggesting isolated pockets of 2-4" amounts are possible in 1 to 2 hours. This is similar to what we have seen the past few days for some areas. Expect a handful of Flood Advisories and a few Flash Flood Warnings through this evening. Some slow moving showers and storms could linger deeper into tonight, mainly across our eastern CWA ahead of the upper trough axis, but overall confidence is low in how deep they will survive past peak heating. Thursday - Sunday... The late week into the weekend upper pattern will feature progressive zonal flow, with a series of shortwaves and/or convection induced MCV's traversing our area. Meanwhile, a surface frontal boundary will slowly sink southward across the region during this time. The end result will be waves of showers and thunderstorms riding along a nearly-stationary frontal boundary, and roughly parallel to the upper flow. Expect there to be some sort of mostly dry period on Thursday as lingering showers exit our east with the departing shortwave and we remain subsident for a bit behind the feature. Later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, focus will shift upstream to the next shortwave embedded within the flow. Some sort of cluster and/or clusters of showers and storms are expected to develop upstream ahead of this feature, and then work into our area later Thursday night into Friday. This cluster is expected to carry a Damaging Wind threat along with heavy rainfall capable of producing Flash Flooding. There isn't a whole lot of deep layer shear available for strong MCS maintenance (20-25 knots with the synoptic flow), however if you can get enough of a cold pool going from clusters of storms, we do have some lingering elevated instability over our area into the overnight to support sustained forward propagating convection. As a result, we'll carry a damaging wind threat into late Thursday night/Friday morning which matches with the SPC Day 2 Outlook nicely. W/NW CWA will have the greatest threat with lower confidence farther east given the diurnal minimum and uncertainty in how much of a cold pool push the convective complex will have. The other threat will be heavy rainfall given PWATs approaching 2" through the column and alreadywet antecedent conditions across the area. Not loving the 08/12z HREF 48 QPF Max and LPMM data for our area through Friday morning. It shows several pockets of 3-7" QPF amounts. It should be noted that some of that rainfall is from this afternoon (Wed afternoon), but still those are concerning amounts as these products have handled the "high-end" potential quite well with our recent rainfall events. Flood Watch was lifted for the entire CWA starting Thursday afternoon and running through late Saturday evening to account for the multi-wave threat. That multi-wave threat will continue into the weekend as shortwaves continue to eject into our area from upstream, likely creating training convective clusters with each wave. It is possible that any one of these waves (including Thursday night's) could have enough of a cold pool push to push the overall convectively reinforced boundary farther south. Two favorable things could come from this. 1.) The axis of heavier rainfall could shift from the northern CWA to the southern, or 2.) the axis of heavier rainfall could shift farther south into TN. Any wave in this series of waves that can be dodged will be helpful. Worst case scenario would be the same area getting hit with each wave. Flooding could become quite severe if that scenario played out. Will continue to message significant flooding possibilities into the weekend given the antecedent wet conditions, possibilities of some high end rainfall totals in spots, and intense rainfall rates overwhelming urban or already saturated grounds. Turn Around, Don't Drown! By later Saturday night into Sunday morning, there is decent agreement that the upper trough axis of the final shortwave will start to slide south through our area, cutting off the deeper moisture and the shortwave feed. Strong upper ridging will build across the central CONUS with the eastern fringes trying to win out over our area as we go into Sunday. Will keep some lingering shower chances in our CWA during this time, but overall not to the magnitude we saw late week into the first part of the weekend. Expecting highs mostly in the mid 80s each day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Ridging building over the Intermountain West and Great Plains looks to expand eastward toward/into the region by the end of the weekend, though model differences exist in the northeastward extent of that ridge. From WPC's cluster analysis, about 70% of long-range ensemble membership builds the ridge solidly into our area - favoring an increasingly warm and dry pattern early next week - while the remaining 30% would suggest a less amplified ridge that favors near- normal temperatures and allows disturbances to trigger thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A low pressure system centered around the MO/IL/KY state line will meander eastward across the area through tonight, triggering scattered afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms. With storms ongoing, the highest chances at the airfields will be over the next 6 hours, which was captured in prob30 groups. However, there is a lower (20-30%) chance thunderstorms could linger for another couple hours beyond 00z. By around 09z Thursday morning, patchy fog and low stratus is forecast to develop over the area; tempo groups were added at the terminals where confidence was highest. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081- 082. IN...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...JRB  817 FXUS64 KHGX 081913 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot conditions continue. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. - Scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Strong gusty winds, locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning are the main risks with the strongest storms. Lower, but non- zero, rain chances Thursday. - A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive Thursday night and Friday. Daily chances of showers and storms will continue through the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A weak mid-level trough axis remains stretched across southeast Texas, interacting with our typical summertime sea breeze pattern. Early this afternoon, obs show PW values in the 1.7-1.9 inch range, and near 2.0 inches closer to the coast. Daytime heating and sufficient moisture will continue to support isolated to scattered, diurnally driven sea breeze showers/storms through early this evening. While dry air aloft is driving decent mixing, any stronger storms will be capable of producing localized downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds (25-45 mph) through the evening hours. A rinse-and-repeat forecast is expected on Thursday, with isolated coastal showers/storms in the morning, developing further inland in the afternoon. However, chances will be lower due to a lack of moisture. Heading into Friday and the weekend, an inverted mid-level trough over the southwestern Gulf and a tightening pressure gradient over our region will open the gates for a deeper tropical moisture surge. This deep moisture profile, combined with persistent weakness/vorticity maxes aloft, will set up the stage for more scattered to widespread showers and storms (40 to 75%) persisting into at least mid-week next week. Seasonal summer heat continues with highs climbing into the mid 90s. Hot conditions paired with persistent southerly to southwesterly flow, and more Gulf moisture will result in peak heat indices in the triple digits (100-107F). Temperatures are progged to be a few degrees cooler next week given higher PoPs. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A fairly typical summertime TAF pattern is expected through this cycle. Brief MVFR cigs/vis are possible over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR prevails through this cycle. Have maintained the mention of VCSH through the morning for the sites closer to the coast with PROB30s for TSRA across all terminals through the afternoon hours as convection is expected along the sea-breeze. Any storms that develops will likely lead to brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vis and gusty winds. Convection should wane by 00Z or shortly after. Winds will become light and variable once again overnight into Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds (generally from the south-southwest) and seas between 1 and 3 ft will prevail through most of the period. However, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to slightly stronger winds (gusts up to 20 kts at times) and seas up to 4-5 ft (offshore) late tonight through late Friday. A typical summer pattern continues with a daily risk of isolated to scattered morning showers and storms, gradually moving further inland in the afternoon. The best rain/storm chances arrive Friday through Saturday and then again in the upcoming week as different disturbances move through the region. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 97 76 95 / 20 10 10 20 Houston (IAH) 78 96 79 95 / 20 20 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 82 90 / 0 20 20 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Castillo MARINE...JM  016 FXUS65 KGGW 081916 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 116 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Yet another round of thunderstorms is expected late this afternoon into tonight. A few storms may be severe with 60 mph wind gusts, large hail, lightning, and brief heavy rain. - An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for Saturday morning through Saturday night with dangerously hot and humid conditions expected. - Temperatures will moderate early next week, but are expected to remain above average. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Another round of thunderstorms is expected this afternoon into tonight. A few storms may be severe with wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail, lightning, and brief heavy rain. A large upper ridge will become established over the western U.S. with the axis sliding east of the region this weekend. This will build hot and dry weather conditions into much of eastern Montana. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued from Saturday morning through Sunday night. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 90s to low 100s. Highs on Sunday will reach upper 90s to mid 100s with some ensemble means pointing to near 110 degrees in the Yellowstone River Valley. Look for limited overnight recoveries each night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Humidity will also be a concern. In the northeast zones this may lead to highs coming in below forecast expectations, but the trade off may be dew points in the 65 to 70 degree range. Elsewhere across NE Montana dew points will still range from the mid 40s to the mid 60s. The humidity combined with hot temperatures with low nighttime recoveries will add risk for heat related illnesses. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Minor adjustments were made to short term pops for collaboration and consistency. Otherwise, ensembles show decent consensus on track and evolution for storms this evening, with confidence increasing on extreme heat conditions unfolding this weekend. Heat impact levels are already showing warning criteria for most of the region by Sunday. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: Wednesday July 8 at 1915Z FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR to IFR. DISCUSSION: Lingering low clouds this afternoon may lead to IFR ceilings at times. Otherwise look for VFR. Thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight will be fairly hit or miss but may reduce visibilities if passing directly over a taf site. WIND: East to southeast winds will range 5 to 15 kts through 06Z before becoming light and variable. Look for gusty and shifting winds near any storms. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan- Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  052 FXUS66 KSTO 081917 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1217 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-normal high temperatures today; slightly warmer than yesterday with continued onshore flow in the evening and overnight hours. - Near to above-normal temperatures and areas of Moderate HeatRisk Thursday-Saturday, with continued onshore flow moderating overnight temperatures. - Potential for monsoonal moisture to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies are being observed this afternoon across interior NorCal. Marine intrusion was once again prominent across the Delta and Sacramento county areas this morning and has quickly lifted out of the area as the sun rose. Overall, mostly pleasant temperatures are being observed at the time of this discussion, with low 70s to low 80s across the region. Zonal heights aloft with broad ridging to the south will allow for slightly higher temperatures compared to yesterday. Weak troughing to the north of the CWA may introduce some very slight chances of showers near Mount Shasta today, but activity is expected to remain out of our area of responsibility. Ridging is expected to move east and into the desert southwest through the remainder of the week. Pattern will result in slightly weaker onshore flow, allowing for daytime high temperatures to climb to more seasonable like / slightly warmer beginning tomorrow and continuing into next week. Confidence is increasing in monsoonal moisture moving into the area early next week as high pressure is near the Four Corners region. Latest forecast package has increased the chances of mountain thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon through at least Wednesday. What remains unclear is exactly how far west and north the monsoonal moisture surge will be, along with sufficient instability aloft. EC ensemble members for CAPE (Most Unstable Parcel) show messy solutions depicting where instability may be early next week. EFI reveals Shift of Tails for QPF nosing into portions of the Valley, foothills, and mountains south of I-80, and overall pattern recognition are at least boosting confidence slightly in some t-storm development. We expect confidence and what potential threats the area may see to increase in the coming days as solutions become more clear. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail over interior NorCal the next 24 hours. Surface winds below 15 kts from the south, except in the northern San Joaquin Valley where north winds below 15 kts will persist. A small chance (less than 10%) locally low ceilings in the Sacramento County area tomorrow morning, where MVFR/IFR conditions may develop from marine layer intrusion. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  096 FXUS61 KALY 081919 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon for a few storms that could become severe. Primary hazards are strong winds and heavy downpours. 2) Heat and humidity build back in for eastern New York and western New England tomorrow into Friday for minor heat-related impacts. After a return to seasonal temperatures for this weekend, another warming trend begins next week with minor to moderate heat- related impacts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Based on latest forecast trends, scattered rain showers return tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning across eastern New York and western New England. A few thunderstorms could develop ahead of an approaching cold front where some could become severe with damaging winds and heavy downpours being the primary hazards. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to support a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon. Then for Friday, a few non-severe thunderstorms could develop before the cold front moves through the Greater Capital Region and the Mid-Hudson Valley. Primary hazards are strong winds associated with any thunderstorms. Continue to monitor the latest forecast with any changes. KEY MESSAGE 2... Humid conditions return tomorrow into Friday as the surface high pressure system heads east and a low pressure system arrives over the Great Lakes region. Associated with this weather system is warmer than normal temperatures with highs forecasted to range in the low 80s for higher terrain locations to low 90s for valleys before a cold front moves through Friday night bringing relief from the heat and humidity for this weekend. Based on latest forecast trends, feels-like temperatures range in the low to mid-90s for valley locations. For the Mid-Hudson Valley, forecast confidence remains steady on not reaching heat advisory criteria as more than 2 hours are needed for feels-like temperatures above 95 degrees. While it could be reached for one hour, the impacts remain minor for those more extremely susceptible to the heat and without cooling. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks when working outdoors during peak heating hours. Beginning early next week, we continue to monitor potential minor to moderate heat-related impacts as temperatures have medium chances to climb into the mid-90s for valley locations. Feels-like temperatures could climb into the upper 90s if humid conditions returns. Keep up to date on the latest forecast as we get closer to next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals throughout this TAF period. Light and variable winds start off the period alongside clear skies, although some high clouds and fair weather cumulus are present at KGFL and KALB. Persistent clear skies and calm winds overnight will lead to the potential for some mist/fog formation at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF, which could bring temporary vis restrictions in the early morning hours of Thursday. Any mist/fog that does form should quickly dissipate by 12Z Thursday, giving way to widespread VFR conditions through the end of the period. Winds will slightly strengthen tomorrow morning and prevail out of the south to southwest, accompanied by some additional fair weather low-to- mid level cumulus and high clouds. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...23  163 FXUS65 KPIH 081921 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 121 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms - Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon for fire weather zone 427 due to thunderstorms - Drier weather returns for Thursday and beyond with hot conditions likely for the weekend. Many low elevations will reach 100 degrees by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Main impact this afternoon and evening will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is at least a slight chance everywhere but most likely spot is in the southern hills south of interstates 84 and 86. Will have much less activity on Thursday but a very slight chance remains. Will start to see the warming Thursday with highs in the 80s mountains and into the low 90s valleys. By Friday will have dry conditions with no thunderstorm threat. Low elevations will reach the mid 90s with 80s to lower 90s mountains. By Saturday and Sunday expecting many low elevations to reach 100 degrees. May see a bit of a wind increase Saturday into Sunday with some 20 to 30 mph wind gusts expected. In the long term as the upper level strong ridge pushes east a bit there is the potential some monsoonal moisture may work north on the back side of the ridge by Tuesday and next Wednesday. So there is at least the potential for some increase in moisture and showers and thunderstorms returning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 956 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main impacts will be potential thunderstorms impacting all TAF sites EXCEPT DIJ, where it appears any lingering shower/storm potential will be minimal and/or not close enough to the airport. We have included PROB30 for BYI, SUN, PIH, and IDA for gusts over 35kts, with some potential for gusts exceeding 45-50kts. We should see showers and storms clear these TAF sites later this evening. VFR weather is expected although we might see a brief reduction during any storm that ends up producing heavier rainfall. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected once again this afternoon. The best chances for storms is across fire zone 427. Gusty outflow winds are likely near storms. Drier weather is likely for Thursday. Hot, dry and perhaps windy weather is expected over the weekend which could warrant additional red flag warnings. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ427. && $$ DISCUSSION...GK AVIATION...Keyes FIRE WEATHER...13  247 FXUS63 KDDC 081923 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) severe storms both Tonight and Thursday Night for primarily a damaging straight line wind risk. - Large thunderstorm system late Thursday evening/night may lead to isolated to widely scattered excessive rainfall potential with latest NBM 95th percentile showing some 3"+ amounts (1-in-20 chance at any location) - Hot and dry pattern late weekend into next week, however chance of significant heat wave impacts across southwest Kansas are low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Prolonged thunderstorm chances tonight through early Saturday morning will be the main forecast challenge. The first decent chance will be later on this evening as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) develops across eastern Colorado within increasing moist upslope low level winds. Latest convection-allowing models and ensemble systems (particularly the experimental GSL version of the REFS) have a pretty strong signal of organized strong to severe thunderstorms rolling across mainly far west central and northwest Kansas with some weakening signal after 05Z (Midnight CDT) as storms move east of the U283 corridor. This weakening signal it mainly due to weaker deep layer shear and low level moist inflow later at night. Regardless, at least a small MCS should survive east of U283, generally along the I-70 corridor. Latest NBM 12-hr QPF probs are also not all that high with only a 20-25% chance of 1/4" or more QPF late tonight along the K96 to I-70 corridor. The greater signal for numerous strong/severe thunderstorms continues to be Thursday Night as better kinematic and thermodynamic fields will support a longer-lived, more organized strong to severe MCS. QPF signals are also much higher of a larger area of west central and southwest Kansas with 24-hr (1 PM Thursday to 1 PM Friday CDT) chances of 1/4" in the 50 to 60% range for roughly two-thirds of the DDC NWS forecast area, generally northwest of a Liberal to Pratt line. Same time frame 1"+ probs are showing 25-35% probability scattered about southwest Kansas from the 13Z NBM, and it would not be surprising to see a few spots see two inches of rain just from Thursday Night's event alone with 90th percentile QPF well above two inches in some locations. A third and final round of thunderstorms Friday Night will be possible as well, most likely focused farther south and probably south of our DDC forecast area entirely -- especially if Thursday Night/Friday morning's forecast big MCS event pushes the effective boundary pretty far to the south. Heading into the medium range next week, the large scale pattern will evolve towards a highly anomalous upper level high centered across the central CONUS. Latest Grand Ensemble of the Big 3 global models ECMWF ENS, NCEP GEFS, and Canadian GEPS show a mean 500mb high position forming over the Colorado/Wyoming Rockies moving across the Northern Great Plains through early to mid next week with 50-60% probability of 600 decameter high center. Such an anomalous high that far north would actually put southwest Kansas in a stronger than normal deep easterly flow regime, thus keeping the excessive heat risk farther north through this period. We will likely see daily highs in the lower to mid 90s much of next week with perhaps a slow ramp up toward upper 90s/near 100 by the end of our 7-day forecast period. This pattern would not support much rainfall given the large scale subsidence in vicinity of the upper high. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Southerly winds will become fairly light later this afternoon asa broad, but weak low pressure expands slowly across southwest Kansas. With the exception of LBL, winds should remain fairly light through this evening ahead of thunderstorms later tonight. Thunderstorms will remain in the TAFs for all airports DDC, GCK, LBL, and HYS (PROB30 group) for a 4-hour period. Given the hot air mass in place, the probability for VFR flight category much of this period is very high, except for a brief time in thunderstorms late tonight. After any storms late tonight, winds may briefly be gusty out of the northeast but eventually become light and variable as a weak synoptic pressure gradient remains in place across much of Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid  286 FXUS61 KRLX 081924 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 324 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expanded fog coverage for tonight, but otherwise, the forecast remains on track and is consistent with the previous package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding going forward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed today along a lingering surface boundary. Steering flow remains light today, at 10 knots or less, resulting in a slow movement of activity, with localized totals of 1-2" already observed in some areas. Activity should begin to gradually decrease towards/after sunset, with an additional round possible later tonight into Thursday morning as a shortwave moves overhead, as well as additional diurnal development Thursday afternoon/evening. After a somewhat quieter Thursday night, the most widespread rainfall is expected Friday and Saturday as a cold front slowly approaches from the north and a more robust shortwave crosses overtop on Friday, with another approaching late Saturday. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across much of the forecast area through Thursday, with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall Friday and Saturday. Given the scattered coverage of activity today into Thursday and low confidence in placement of heaviest rainfall, have opted to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch. This will however continue to be monitored going forward. While organized severe weather is not currently anticipated, given progged Mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg most afternoons, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out. The hazard associated with any heavy storms would be strong winds via collapsing cores. Drier weather attempts to build into the area late this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed across the area this afternoon, providing brief MVFR/IFR restrictions at times. This trend is expected to continue through the evening, with activity gradually diminishing after sunset, with the potential for another developing round later tonight into Thursday morning. More widespread restrictions are expected tonight with developing fog and/or stratus, with LIFR or worse progged for most terminals. Fog/stratus gradually lifts/dissipates through ~ 12 to 14Z, with MVFR CIGs possible thereafter with developing diurnal Cu. MVFR VSBY restrictions are also possible with any heavier showers or storms. Light and variable flow is expected today, going calm in most areas tonight. Light west-southwest flow develops on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary. Restrictions overnight into Thursday morning with fog, stratus, and additional rainfall will vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L= LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend, more likely in the afternoon and evening hours. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GW AVIATION...GW  397 FXUS61 KBGM 081926 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 326 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm temperatures and increasing humidity are expected across Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania into Friday. 2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the region Thursday afternoon through Friday before quiet weather and high pressure build back in for the weekend. 3) After seasonal temperatures this weekend, heat builds into the area through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Weak ridging over the area has brought mostly sunny skies and has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. Temps should rise a few degrees more as we enter peak afternoon heating. WSW flow returns tonight as the ridge slides east and a trough digs into the Great Lakes. This flow will push warmer, more humid air into the region. Temperatures Thursday will climb into the mid 80s to low 90s for most, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. The higher dewpoints will make if feel a little muggy out, but we will not be hot enough to necessitate any heat headlines. The axis of the aforementioned trough will move through the area Thursday night into Friday morning. This will help push temperatures down into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. A ridge will build into the central US this weekend, bringing WNW flow to the area and seasonable temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2... Most of the area should stay dry today, although a weak shortwave looks to move into central PA, kicking off some isolated showers across the western Finger Lakes later this afternoon into the evening. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out but severe storms are not expected. More widespread rain showers and storms are expected for Thursday into Friday, with 2 different features helping to generate precipitation across portions of our area. First, a shortwave will push into the Mid-Atlantic Thursday morning, kicking off scattered showers and storms across portions of NEPA. Most of the heavier rain looks to stay to the south, but showers and storms may skirt portions of the Wyoming Valley into the southern Catskills starting in the late morning through the afternoon hours. Guidance shows weak CAPE and shear over the area during much of the afternoon, keeping any convection that develops elevated and weak. The cap looks to break later in the afternoon and evening, but the forcing will be east of the area, limiting precipitation. The better chance for strong to isolated severe storms will be across the northern portion of the CWA as a frontal boundary on the leading edge of the trough axis moves into the area late in the afternoon to evening hours. Stronger bulk shear of 25-35kts is modeled to accompany this boundary with modest CAPE around 1000 j/kg. This should kick off some scattered storms, with a few isolated severe storms possible. Damaging winds would be the main threat with these storms. Isolated flash flooding will also be possible as the CAPE over the area looks to be long and skinny, with PWATs in the 1.5-2in range, warm cloud depths around 12k feet and MBE vectors of 5-10kts. These parameters point to slow moving or back building storms with heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding. This threat looks to be the greatest from the late afternoon into the early overnight hours. The frontal boundary looks to push through the area Thursday night into Friday morning, but the timing is currently a little unsure with some models have an early overnight passage, while others push it through late overnight/early Friday morning, slowing down in the late morning/early afternoon as it approaches the NY/PA border. If the passage is towards the later solution, a shortwave moving into the area from western PA will kick off scattered showers and storms across the Twin Tiers and into the Poconos during the afternoon and evening hours. The slow moving frontal boundary near the NY/PA border providing enhanced lift of warm, moist air as the shortwave moves across the region could generate multiple storms with heavy downpours impacting the same areas causing isolated flash flooding. Because of this, a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been issued for this area. Precipitation chances move out of the area by late evening, with high pressure building in for the weekend. Key Message 3... A very strong ridge will build across the central US starting Monday, bringing very hot weather to the area. Some of this heat will propagate along the northern edge of the ridge and slide into our area starting Tuesday. Widespread mid 80s to low 90s will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A front and associated trough may dig into the area after Wednesday, bringing some cooler weather, but confidence in this is low at this time as model guidance is too varied on the timing of the front and when/if the ridge weakens. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. A weak disturbance moves through tonight, mainly affecting the Southern Tier and south with some isolated rain showers and potentially brief MVFR cigs. ELM could fog if the clouds dont stick around after the disturbance passes but only have an IFR tempo right now due to lower confidence. SYR and RME will see mainly clear skies and VFR through tomorrow evening. Outlook: Thursday Afternoon...Mainly VFR. Friday...Cold front could moves in, with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Saturday into Monday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTC AVIATION...AJG  380 FXUS65 KBOI 081926 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 126 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms across portions of southern Idaho may produce outflow wind gusts up to 40-60 mph through this evening. - Hot with breezy afternoon winds through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Thunderstorms got off to an early start today with the first strike hitting before 10AM this morning. Activity will continue into the early evening bringing the potential for local wind gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest outflow winds will be focused east of Hwy 51 and Mountain Home and south of Hwy 20 out to Fairfield. It's not unreasonable that a westward propagating outflow extends further into the Treasure Valley this evening though it is going to be a race between thunderstorm outflows and an evening wind push from the northwest. For now, expect the northwest winds to win the race for most of the Treasure Valley. These winds will first push through SE Oregon counties early this evening, bringing gusts 30 to 40 mph in the typically winder locations. A quieter hot and dry pattern settles in after this evening. High temperatures on Thursday are a few degrees cooler than today with northwest winds ramping up in the afternoon. The heat builds on Friday as an upper high over the Desert SW expands northward. This will put lower elevations near 100 and mountain valleys near 90. Winds will be lighter at lower elevations as southwest flow aloft brings breezy winds to higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Hot temperatures will persist throughout the long-term period, with the well-advertised ridge shifting east over the Rockies/High Plains. this will bring lower elevation temperatures in the upper-90s and around triple digits. Saturday appears to be the hottest day of the period, with temperatures throughout lower elevations near 100 degrees and localized areas near 105 degrees for daytime highs. Overnight lows will generally stay 5-10 degrees above normal as well. Come Monday, the signal for a monsoonal push remains, with ensemble guidance continuing to carry precipitable water values around the 95th percentile of climatology. This moisture will help reintroduce thunderstorms into the forecast come Monday and beyond, especially over higher terrain. With that moisture, flash flooding could be a concern, especially over recent burn scars. Another aspect will be the lightning over dry fuels after a long stretch of hot and dry conditions. The antecedent dry conditions combined with lightning potential increases the concern of new fire starts, especially if initial storms take on a dry posture. Both of these hazards will need to be monitored in the days to come. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1123 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in far SW and S-central Idaho, including KJER/KTWF. Storms capable of outflows to 30-50 kt, brief heavy rain, and blowing dust. Localized terrain obstruction from wildfire smoke. High density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds outside of storms: W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts to 25 kt late afternoon and evening, except 25-35 kt near KBKE-KONO. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude this week due to heat. Foothills obscured in smoke at times from nearby fires. Surface winds: NW 8-13 kt with gusts to around 20 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL over KBOI: SW-W 10-15 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-424- 426. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF  422 FXUS65 KCYS 081927 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 127 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and Thursday with heavy rainfall, hail, and strong gusty winds possible. - A ridge builds into the long term, drying the area out and developing Red Flag and potential heat advisory conditions through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 As of this afternoon the dryline is noted on radar right around the I-25 corridor and retreating westwards into Cheyenne proper. Development has begun along this boundary with a few storms noted, but nothing strong currently. Forecast sounding profiles across the region note inverted V's, which combined with DCAPE values into the 1000-1500 J/kg range would be indicative of high based storms with strong wind gusts the primary hazards. That being said, there is a little bit of instability across the region, and some meager support for updrafts, so we can't rule out a storm or two to have at least some hail, whether it be severe in size or small accumulating hail. Finally, moisture is actually notably plentiful east of I-25 despite the dry surface, with PWAT values into the 1-1.5" range. With the scattered nature of storm development, if any we get multiple stronger storms training over the same location, a marginal risk of excessive rainfall will be possible. Storms will continue into the early evening, but by around 8-9 PM storms should be on the decline as support wanes. Moving into Thursday, our severe risk continues once again along and east of the I-25 corridor, but this time profiles will support a bit more organization to storm development. Initial storms should go up during the early afternoon with steep mid- level lapse rates and modest instability around 1000-2000 J/kg, which would support isolated storms capable of both large hail and damaging winds. This batch of activity though will likely grow upscale into a more linear feature, which will shift the primary hazard into mostly strong winds as storms evolve into western Nebraska. And like today, PWAT values into the 1-1.5" range should fuel at least a meager risk of localized flooding. Once again as the sun goes down we'll see storm activity wane and/or move out of our area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday...The atmosphere dries out somewhat compared to today and Thursday, with shortwave ridging aloft bulging over eastern Wyoming. The 12Z GFS indicates decent low and mid level moisture for far southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, and diurnal heating and low level mechanical lift, along with a passing perturbation, will likely produce isolated late day showers and thunderstorms from I-25 eastward, and we may see our POPS and thunderstorm coverage increase somewhat in the next few model runs and days. Saturday through Wednesday...Ridging aloft dominates our region, with quite dry air at low and mid levels, accompanied by 700 mb temperatures from 14 to 21 Celsius, thus chances for late day showers and thunderstorms will be nearly nil and non existent, and dry weather will prevail. The 700 mb temperatures will yield maximum temperatures in the 90 to 105 degree range. A weak perturbation and a slight increase in mid level moisture may spark isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday, and moreso on Wednesday, along the convective inhibition aloft gradient along the I-25 corridor and further to the west. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1128 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A relatively active day for thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon and evening, as the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, to the east of a Lusk to Cheyenne line, including far southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for this afternoon exists elsewhere to the west of a Lusk to Cheyenne line. Synoptically, a negatively tilted shortwave trough aloft will move into western Nebraska this evening, while a low level convergence axis develops along the Interstate 25 corridor, then storms will develop and strengthen as they develop and propagate across far southeast Wyoming, and especially the Nebraska Panhandle, where scattered thunderstorms may conglomerate and develop into a Mesoscale Convective Complex, or MCC, somewhere over the northern or central Nebraska Panhandle this evening, thunderstorms will likely end across the Nebraska Panhandle in the 03Z timeframe. Wyoming TAFS...Using the 16Z HRRR, which has consistently been fairly accurate with respect to timing, high confidence, and expect thunderstorm initiation between 18Z and 20Z from a Douglas to Laramie line, with storms strengthening along the I-25 corridor near 22Z, and mostly moving into western Nebraska around 00Z to 02Z. Expect TEMPO for thunderstorms at Rawlins and Laramie for much of the afternoon and into the early evening hours, and some storms will produce low level turbulence, strong downdrafts, as well as gusty and erratic winds up to 45 knots, along with brief MVFR visibility restrictions. VFR prevails however, with clouds clearing out late this evening and overnight. As is typical, expect gusty gradient and mix down winds until sunset. At Cheyenne, best chance for thunderstorms, and high confidence, according to the likely accurate 16Z run of the HRRR, will be from 20Z to 02Z, with storm initiation around 20Z, and storms increasing in coverage and intensity from 22Z to 01Z. Some storms will produce low level turbulence, strong downdrafts, as well as gusty and erratic winds up near 50 knots, along with brief MVFR visibility restrictions. VFR prevails however, with clouds clearing out late this evening and overnight. As is typical, expect gusty gradient and mix down winds until sunset. Nebraska TAFS...High confidence in the 16Z HRRR run, which has consistently shown thunderstorms developing and/or propagating along the Wyoming and Nebraska state line around 23Z, and crossing the Panhandle during the 00Z to 03Z time frame, with clusters of thunderstorms and a possible MCC, Mesoscale Convective Complex, forming this evening, somewhere over the northern or central Nebraska Panhandle and propagating southeastward. The strongest storms will be capable of producing one inch diameter hail or larger, wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and locally heavy rainfall, along with low level turbulence, and strong downdrafts. Brief MVFR will be likely during the thunderstorms this evening, with skies clearing out late this evening and late tonight. As is typical, expect gusty gradient winds and mix down winds until sunset. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN  571 FXUS63 KFGF 081931 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 2 out of 5 risk Thursday overnight for the Devils Lake basin. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms. - Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Synopsis... Zonal flow across the northern CONUS today will gradually give way to more meridional flow by this weekend as ridging builds across the Rockies and Plains. Clusters then depict a couple stronger waves riding along the periphery of the ridge in Interior Canada. This could have impacts reaching some of the local thresholds for Heat Advisories or even an Extreme Heat Warning this weekend so the impact of these waves in the placement and amplitude of the ridge will certainly be something to watch. Along with these waves comes chances for some scattered rain though no drought busters. The main rain chance to be aware of looks to be Thursday evening/overnight mainly across our eastern North Dakota counties with chance for some strong to severe activity. - Thursday Severe Risk Amid mostly zonal to slightly NW flow will come a shortwave tomorrow with a developing low level jet in the evening ahead the pacific trough. As moisture surges north in central North Dakota with dewpoints nearing 70 potentially there will be no shortage CAPE with upwards of 3000-4000 MUCAPE and enough shear along clockwise curved hodographs for initially robust supercell structures. Capable of golf ball sized hail and potentially a few tornadoes though a later initiation time may shunt the tornado threat (an earlier storm start time may yield a higher threat.) Regardless as storms work east into our forecast area and namely the Devils Lake Basin around 7-9pm they should transition to a more elevated mode and the surface begins to cool with the cessation of daytime heating and hazards will evolve to primarily hail and an increasing wind threat storms likely congeal into one or more lines/bowing segments. Hazards for our area are hail to 1.75" and winds to 60mph. - Heat Impacts For this weekend as heat builds there is high confidence in much of eastern North Dakota seeing air temperatures cresting 90 degrees as early as Saturday and lasting through at least Monday when highs fall back into the 80s for the middle of next week. During this stretch the 25-75th percentile spread on potential high temperatures is a reasonable 5-8 degrees meaning while temps could end up slightly warmer or cooler than currently being forecast it is unlikely highs will only be in the lower 80s rather than lower 90s. Along with the warm temps will be heat indices near to above 100 Saturday through Monday. With this heat headlines look to be in order with Sunday being the hottest day of the stretch. Will wait until tomorrow at the earliest to issue any headlines for Saturday but it will be a proper July scorcher of a weekend regardless of any products being issued. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR skies this afternoon with a some FEW to SCT cumulus through 00z at 4-6kt. Winds vary a bit across the region but are mostly northeast at 5-10 kts and gusts to 12kts. Winds with nearing high pressure will go light and variable overnight with southerly flow prevailing on the west side of high pressure by Thursday afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...TT  572 FXUS63 KLSX 081931 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe Thursday and Friday afternoons with damaging winds the primary threat along with locally heavy rainfall. - Mostly dry weather with temperatures slightly above average are forecast Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Dry weather is forecast tonight with light winds and seasonably warm temperatures. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the mid-Missouri Valley and head east/southeast late tonight into early Thursday morning. This activity should weaken gradually with time as it enters central/northeast Missouri due to an abating low-level jet and lesser instability to work with. A remnant MCV is likely to remain from this morning convection and work eastward. By early-mid afternoon, this feature should help develop renewed convection downstream, mostly likely along/east of the Mississippi River. Instability will increase with time, and combined with some enhanced (~30 knots) effective shear downstream of the aforementioned MCV, at least a few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur. Damaging winds will be the main threat along with locally heavy rainfall from roughly 2 PM until 10 PM. While the severe threat likely will wane by mid-late evening, the low-level jet does ramp up. Enhanced low-level moisture convergence on the nose of the jet should lead to fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms across southeast Missouri and far southwest Illinois. These storms may tend to train (especially if they stay elevated) over the same areas so the threat for isolated flash flooding may increase. Precipitable water values are expected to be high, generally above 1.75" or closer to the 95th percentile of climatology. Flash flood guidance though is also real high (>3"/3 hr), and the low-level jet does veer about 30 degrees from 0600 to 1200 UTC Friday. This should help shift convection equatorward overnight, lessening the duration of accumulating rainfall. Therefore, will hold off on a flash flood watch for now. Gosselin && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Friday - Saturday Night) Forecast uncertainty increases after Thursday night. Deterministic model guidance is hinting at another midlevel shortwave trough (or convectively-induced MCV) moving eastward in zonal flow aloft. The timing/track/strength of this feature is unknown, but additional showers and thunderstorms should develop by Friday afternoon. Similar to Thursday afternoon, there should be plenty of instability and just enough shear in place for the threat of damaging wind gusts. At this early juncture, the best chances of thunderstorms and severe weather would be across southeast Missouri. This is where the effective frontal boundary is most likely to be located, but the exact location will of course depend heavily on the evolution of convection Thursday night. Friday night into Saturday morning may have a subsequent round of showers and thunderstorms as the low-level jet increases. Exactly where and how organized this round will be is highly uncertain, but I would tend to favor southeast Missouri and points south. Each preceding round of convection may tend to shift the effective front farther south and deterministic guidance (especially coarser resolution) tends to be too far north with these subsequent rounds. If parts of southeast Missouri and adjacent southwest Illinois do end up receiving additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, the flash flood threat would increase though at this time range there is too much uncertainty to say whether or not any given location will see multiple rounds. (Sunday - Next Wednesday) A record-breaking mid/upper level ridge is forecast to amplify across the northern Plains late this weekend into early next week with deep northeasterly flow across the mid-Mississippi Valley. A shift to dry weather along with temperatures running slightly above normal seems likely during this period of time. There is some uncertainty with the exact strength/placement of the mid/upper level ridge heading into the middle of next week. One cluster of the 500-hPa height pattern has a more elongated west-east ridge (~25% of LREF members) over our area. If this scenario were to occur, highs more into the mid 90s would be expected. However, even in that scenario, surface dewpoints should tend to lower with time and heat index values likely would stay largely below 100 degrees. On the other end of the spectrum, there is a cluster (~10% of members) that has a much deeper trough moving across the Great Lakes/northeast. This scenario would potentially lead to much cooler (highs mid 80s) temperatures. The current forecast lies between these two opposite ends of the spectrum, and more toward the middle two clusters which comprises a large majority of LREF members. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few isolated showers/weak thunderstorms are expected through early this evening, though mainly across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. KSTL/KCPS has ongoing activity nearby, but this may tend to weaken and shift elsewhere over the next hour or two. Dry weather is expected tonight, with rain chances increasing on Thursday, though mainly after 18Z. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  651 FXUS64 KMAF 081932 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Isolated thunderstorms (10-20%) will be possible this afternoon over the Big Bend and over higher terrain areas Thursday and Friday. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An upper-level ridge continues to extend across the Desert Southwest and into southeast New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon. Deep layer subsidence underneath this feature is largely suppressing cloud cover across our region early this afternoon except for a few high-based cumulus. Weak upslope flow and ascent along the northern periphery of a weak shortwave impulse over northern Mexico could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Big Bend region this afternoon, but any activity that develops should diminish by early this evening. Low temperatures early Thursday morning should average near normal with readings mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The upper-level ridge will continue to stretch from southern California into west Texas again on Thursday. Mostly sunny skies can expected again across our region with hot temperatures in the mid 90s to around 103 degrees over most places. Weak upslope flow could result in the development of a couple of isolated cells over the higher terrain Thursday afternoon, but POPs will be 20% or less. Lows Thursday night remain seasonably warm in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper-level ridge will strengthen over the Four Corners and adjacent Rocky Mountains and northern High Plains Friday through the weekend. Isolated afternoon convection will remain confined to higher terrain areas both Friday and Saturday with mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures persisting over the rest of the forecast area. An easterly to northeasterly mid-level flow pattern generally returns late this weekend into early next week as our forecast area becomes positioned to the south of the building ridge over the central and northern Plains. Medium range and ensemble guidance indicate an increase in deep layer moisture with this pattern with precipitable water values rising to between 1.5- 1.75 inches early next week. Shortwave impulses in the mid-level flow along with the increased moisture and afternoon heating/ instability will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of our region Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most areas both days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will remain southerly to southeasterly up to 10-15 knots with occasional higher gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 101 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 93 70 94 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 70 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 61 92 63 95 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...21  684 FXUS61 KOKX 081933 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 333 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and flash flood threat on Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. Increasingly warm and muggy on Thu and Fri, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s for one day on Friday. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Good agreement on Mid-Mississippi River valley closed upper low shearing towards the region Thu aft/eve, with a resultant weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid- Atlantic, and lee/pre-frontal surface trough developing and approaching from the west. These features should be able to provide a trigger/focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across NYC/NJ metro and N&W in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment. Severe threat should be limited in this environment, but can't rule out an isolated damaging pulse wet microburst threat, particularly if there is more in the way of sun allowing for moderate instability development. Environment is more conducive to an isolated flash flood threat with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and MBE vectors less than 5kt. Higher flash flood threat appears to be across SE PA/S NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Still an isolated flash flood risk is signaled for the NYC/NE NJ metro region in the high res- guidance, depicted thru being on the edge of HREF 10% ensemble prob for 3"/3hr, and HRSW ARW and NSSL WRF indicating max NY/NJ metro neighborhood value of 2 1/2 to 3" in 3/hr in WPC URRD. Will address in HWO, and let midnight shift evaluate any northward trends. Diminishing severe/flash flood threat in the late evening in wake of trough. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a stronger cold front approaching the region in the afternoon/evening. Trigger and focus is once again there for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri aft/eve, with an isolated severe/flash flood threat. A slightly better severe threat on Friday aft/eve with 30-35kt deep layer shear profile to complement marginal to locally moderate instability environment. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Flash flood threat looks a bit lower than Thursday with slightly lower PWATS (mid- level drying in wake of Thursday pre- frontal trough) and quicker anticipated storm movement. Flash flood threat will ultimately be contingent on moisture pooling ahead of cold front, storm coverage, and potential SW to NE training along frontal boundary based on MBE vectors. Temperatures will continue to moderate to near seasonable levels on Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s On Friday, with max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon at the NYC area terminals, as well as at KSWF. PROB30 groups were maintained during the timeframe where TSRA is most likely, which is generally between 18Z and 22Z Thursday, depending on location (on the earlier side for the terminals farther to the west; on the later side to the east). Winds are shifting to S/SW this afternoon at less than 10kts and will remain that way through Thursday afternoon. Winds pick up slightly at 10-15kts Thursday afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday afternoon through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected Thu and Fri with modest S/SW flow of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible fro ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into MOnday with high pressure building towards and then over the waters. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV AVIATION...MD MARINE...NV  710 FXUS65 KTWC 081935 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1235 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day this week, with the potential for an increase in storm coverage over the weekend. Hot temperatures for much of the week before cooling off this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Very little change in the forecast versus 24 hours ago. High pressure aloft extends from west of the northern Baja Peninsula northeast into western New Mexico. By Thursday and Friday the upper high will shift westward when it will be centered over the eastern Pacific through the northern Baja and into western Arizona. Over the weekend, the monsoon high shifts northeastward to north of the Four Corners into the central/high plains. With the upper high nearly overhead or very close by, Heat will be a concern through Thursday. High temperatures will top out 4-7 degrees above normal and an Extreme Heat Warning is in now effect through 8 pm MST Thursday. The Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the much of Pima County, south-central and southeast Pinal County and the Gila River Valley of Graham County. Moderate HeatRisk covers much of southeast Arizona through Thursday, with pockets of Major HeatRisk in the warning area. For more information on this product, please refer to PHXNPWTWC. Precipitable Water values currently range from 0.80" along the New Mexico state line to around 1.35" over central/western Pima County. The higher PW values are forecasted to get shunted east/southeast of Tucson Thursday into Friday as the upper high lifts northeast across the state. By Saturday and Sunday, PW values increase from near 1" in the White Mountains to between 1.3"-1.5" from Tucson southward along the International Border. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances today/tonight will be roughly east of a line from Oracle to Sells. The steering flow remains northeast to southwest at 10-15 mph. The main threats will be gusty outflow winds to 40-45 mph, blowing dust along Interstate 10 in both Pinal and Cochise counties and localized heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. On Thursday and Friday, the thunderstorm coverage will shift slightly eastward, roughly east of a line from Safford to Tucson to Nogales. By this weekend, the steering flow shifts to an east to west direction, as the upper high becomes centered north/northeast of the Four Corners. Given the forecasted increase in PW's, Flash Flooding will become a concern. WPC has already issued an Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Saturday (Day 4), which highlights much of southeast Arizona in a Marginal Risk. Thunderstorm chances and coverage increase over the weekend to include all of southeast Arizona, including central and western Pima County. In addition, mid-level steering flow looks favorable for the potential for some clustering of storms and/or organized convection which could lead to an enhanced severe threat. This active pattern then continues into the early part of next week. High temperatures over the weekend will lower to right around normal, which is the lower 100s in the lower deserts from Tucson westward and in the Gila River Valley, with mid to upper 90s in the lower elevation locations of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. By early next week, forecasted high temperatures will lower to 1-3 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z. FEW-SCT (locally BKN) clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL and ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/ -TSRA. There is the potential for outflow winds up to 45 kts thru 09/04Z. Clouds and storms diminishing between 09/04Z and 09/17Z. Aft 09/19Z through the end of the forecast period, SCT-BKN clouds at 8k- 11k ft AGL and ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly east of KTUS. Outside of any thunderstorm outflows, SFC wind less than 12 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Above normal high temperatures (4-7 degrees) through Thursday, with highs lowering to around normal over the upcoming weekend. Min RH values in the lower elevations in the 13-20 percent range through Friday, increasing 5-10 percent by late in the weekend into early next week. Outside of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20- foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph into early next week. There will be a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon/evening hours through Friday. There is the potential for increasing thunderstorm chances and coverage this weekend into early next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ501-502- 504>506-509. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  799 FXUS63 KLBF 081937 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 237 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening/overnight across much of western and north central Nebraska - Additional chances of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday - Main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall both today and Thursday - Warmer temperatures this weekend into next week with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main concern in the short term will be storm development this afternoon and evening/overnight and again on Thursday. A frontal boundary will continue to sag southward across the state and a trof moving in from the west, this will become the focus for storm development. A few of the CAMs have convection starting as early as 20z, which tend to favor this early convective development given the environment and having seeing already started to see some convective development across northeastern NE and seeing some upscale growth on satellite. 0 to 6 km shear will increase through the afternoon with 35 to 40 kts expected across the Sandhills. MUCAPE values increase to around 2500 to 3000 J/kg by late this afternoon. Moisture will be abundant with dew points across the area in the 60s. Expect storms to initially be discrete developing along the frontal boundary and could see additional development from the higher terrain across the Panhandle moving into the CWA. Expect that the storms across western Nebraska may evolve into more bowing segments with damaging wind gusts. The main hazards will be strong, damaging winds and large hail, along with a threat for heavy rainfall. SPC has highlighted western Nebraska generally from a line near Pine Ridge to Tryon to North Platte to Curtis and westward as the greatest threat to see the strongest, damaging wind gusts. There will be the potential for additional development of thunderstorms later this evening, continuing into the overnight hours as the LLJ increases, maintaining storm development and will see the threat for heavy rainfall as PWATs increase greater than 1.50". The area of greatest concern will be along and south of interstate 80 and points eastward into central Nebraska where a marginal risk for excessive rainfall is possible, with portions of eastern Lincoln, Custer and Frontier highlighted by a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Expect any overnight thunderstorm activity to end by the early morning hours on Thursday. As for Thursday, there will be another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms again in the afternoon and evening. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across the Panhandle and move into the area. 0 to 6 km shear will be around 30 kts across western Nebraska with MUCAPE around 1500 to 2200 J/kg. This should be sufficient enough to sustain a few isolated thunderstorms tomorrow with the greatest threats being strong winds and large hail and a secondary threat of heavy rainfall. Generally expect the greatest threat for strong to severe storms to be along and west of a line from HWY 83 westward. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 After Thursday, an upper level ridge will start to build in from the west. Heading into the weekend as the ridge moves eastward temperatures warm into the 90s on Saturday and Sunday. The upper level ridge continues to build and move eastward becoming centered over the Central Plains CONUS by early next week and remain over the area through the late next week. Good signal continues to show supporting temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will largely be expected through the forecast period. Cloud cover will clear out in exchange for generally clear skies early Wednesday afternoon. North northeast winds will remain fairly light, 5 - 10 kts through the day and into the evening. By mid to late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms should develop out of the west and introduce thicker mid to high level clouds. KLBF could some impacts but confidence remains low enough that only a PROB30 has been added to cover this. Guidance suggest that northern Nebraska could see some IFR conditions early Thursday morning, but should stay north of KLBF. By mid Thursday morning winds should shift to more east southeasterly at 5 - 10 kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...MRS  793 FXUS63 KLOT 081937 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 237 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances return Thursday, with the potential for localized heavy rainfall Thursday afternoon and evening. Strongest storms may also be capable of localized gusty winds, mainly south of I-80. - Mainly dry, warmer weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A warm, dry afternoon is underway across the forecast area as an area of weak surface high pressure drifts slowly southeast of the cwa. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms were noted across southeast WI, where west-southwesterly return flow has brought a return of low-70s surface dew points, though drier low-levels and warmer mid-level temps across our local area should provide enough of a cap to minimize any convective threat here for the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase across northern IL toward daybreak Thursday however, as an area of thunderstorms currently developing across IA/MN/WI eventually approaches the area. High-res CAM guidance continues to be in good agreement that this area of convection will be in a weakening/decaying mode by that time, though may push an outflow boundary into the area after 1-3 AM. Given the diurnal instability minima during the early morning, guidance is not very excited about convective development along the remnant outflow, though isolated to widely-scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible generally along/north of the I-88 corridor especially by late morning as daytime warming eventually destabilizes the boundary layer. Scattered thunderstorm chances do increase from midday Thursday into the evening, as the synoptic cold front slowly pushes southeast into the forecast area along with some support from an approaching mid-level short wave. This wave appears weaker than some model runs had been depicting over the past few days, resulting in weaker mid-level westerly flow (20-25 kts as opposed to ~40 kts in some runs previously). Overall weaker forcing, and relatively poor forecast mid-level lapse rates, appear to be responsible for the sparser convective footprint in current CAM guidance across the cwa. There is still some support in current CAM runs for a remnant MCV (from an MCS forecast to develop along the NE/KS border later tonight) to approach the area later in the afternoon/evening which looks to yield somewhat greater shower/thunderstorm coverage during that time. Similar to earlier runs however, the exact track (while perhaps a bit south of previous forecasts) remains of somewhat lower confidence. In any case, these slow-moving storms will provide a threat of heavy rainfall, with localized amounts of 1-2" possible. Weaker mid-level flow (Corfidi propagation vectors potentially 5-10 mph to the ESE), precipitable water values approaching 2" and deep warm-cloud depths all support the likelihood of torrential downpours with some of these storms. Soil moisture, river/creek levels and storm water retention facilities continue to run quite high in portions of the cwa where repeated heavy rains occurred over the past week - especially across portions of the central and southern Chicago metro area. This raises concern for any additional localized heavy rainfall to potentially cause renewed flooding. With this in mind, have collaborated with WPC to include appropriate portions of our forecast area in their Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook in a slight (level 2 of 4) risk. The surface cold front is progged to continue to work southeast across the forecast area Thursday night, eventually slowing further and becoming nearly stationary across downstate IL/IN on Friday. This should allow showers and lingering storms to diminish from NW to SE Thursday night, while surface high pressure builds across the upper Midwest. Drier east-northeast low-level flow will bring drier and more stable conditions to much of northeast IL/northwest IN Friday, while isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorm chances linger mainly off to the south of I-80 during the diurnally favored afternoon and early evening hours. Diurnal precip chances should continue to shift south over the weekend, as the Great Lakes surface high settles a little farther southward. Longer-range ensemble guidance continues to depict an upper- level ridge building eastward across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region later this weekend into early/mid next week. This looks to support a period of dry and warmer weather conditions (highs in the low-90s in many spots) in the extended period. Unlike last week however, current ensembles indicate heat within a less humid air mass. As usual on the north/northeast periphery of an upper ridge, We'll need to continue to monitor the potential for thunderstorm clusters to slide into our area, especially toward the middle of next week as a short wave is progged to rotate across Ontario and parts of the Lakes. Ratzer && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will continue through much, if not all, of the period amid persistent SW winds averaging up to around 10 knots. There are a few windows for precipitation on Thursday, highlighted by TS potential late Thursday afternoon and evening. First, a line of TS developing from northwest Iowa to northern Wisconsin this evening is expected to gradually decay with southeast extent overnight. SHRA may survive into far northern Illinois after daybreak, so have maintained PROB30 SHRA for RFD. Next, the residual outflow boundary from the earlier storms should wash out across the area during the morning, but foster sporadic SHRA through at least mid afternoon. Have therefore maintained VCSH during this window, though it is feasible that the Chicago terminals remain completely dry during the morning and early afternoon. Finally, a mid-level wave crossing southern Wisconsin Thursday afternoon will provide a renewed focus for TS develop over northern Illinois between the 19 and 02Z (particularly 21-01Z at ORD/MDW). There remains uncertainty in both coverage and location (TS may remain just south of the terminals), but any TS will be slow-moving and produce torrential rainfall. Also, any initial TS originating from southern Wisconsin could push an outflow boundary with a N/NE wind shift across ORD/MDW/GYY prior to or during any TS at the terminals. Kluber && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ001-INZ002- INZ010-INZ011. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  863 FXUS61 KAKQ 081939 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 339 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight Risk for severe weather has been added for the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore for Thursday. Updated Marine Discussion, no significant marine forecast changes && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)Showers and thunderstorms persist this afternoon potentially leading to isolated Flash Flooding and perhaps a strong to severe wind gust. 2) Slightly warmer summertime temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. 3) Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 339 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. Afternoon weather analysis shows weak zonal flow aloft across the eastern half of the United States. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front has been noted far south of the area and is currently in NC. Behind the front a modest warm and moist airmass is in place with temperatures in the low to middle 80s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. This environment is favorable for showers and thunderstorms that have already to begun to initiate along a secondary boundary that is draped across NE NC and stretching up along the route-15 corridor. This boundary will be the most favorable area for a storm to produce strong to severe downbursts as the storms will struggle to maintain themselves off the boundary due to the weak synoptics in place. In addition, very isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out given a moist environment in place with PWATS between 1.9-2.2" and MLcape values between 1500-2000J/kg. Again the most favorable area would be along the boundary where storms can initiate and potentially train over the same area. For tonight, the showers and storms will decrease in coverage as day time heating is lost. Areas that receive rain could see the potential for patchy fog development tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. Models continue to hint on a slightly stronger mid/upper level flow Thursday and Friday. A 500mb trough is forecasted to be 30-35kt by Thursday afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave, with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave. With the upper levels strengthening and strong diurnal heating a strong to severe wind gust cannot be ruled out each day. For Thursday severe threat the 12z CAMs have hinted on much stronger convection occuring over the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. This makes sense as it is best colocated with strong instability and the left exit region of the weak jet steak. These portions could also see the highest potential of localized flash flooding as storms have the potential to train over the same areas. Friday continues to remain questionable as downsloping will occur giving the storms less coverage. In addition to the storms, temperatures are progged to climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. These warm temps mixed with high dews will allow for heat indices to climb in the upper 90 to lower 100s. The best place for heat indices to reach 105 would be along the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound. With such low coverage of the 105 heat indices, no Heat Advisories has been issued at this time. KEY MESSAGE 3...Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms chances continue through Saturday as a cold front pushed through the area. By the end of the weekend and into next week models hint on a drier patterns as high pressure returns to the area. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday, before a warming trend commences Tuesday into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 136 PM EDT Wednesday... A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGS have been noted across the area this afternoon. SBY remains VFR while the rest of the terminals remain MVFR and low level clouds continue to clear. Latest satellite imagery shows the clouds clearing across the area and VFR CIGS should return to all terminals between 20-22z. In addition to the low CIGS, isolated showers and thunderstorms have initiated across portions of the Piedmont and NE NC. The thunderstorm near ECG ~1730z has started to weaken but could remain in the vicinity of the terminal for the next hour. Otherwise the showers should remain clear of the VA terminals especially ORF and PHF through the afternoon/evening. However, a shower/thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of RIC. Winds this afternoon remain out of the NE and E ~5-10kt. By tonight, winds become variable and a warm front lifts north. As this front lifts north a period of MVFR and IFR CIGS cannot be ruled out across NC and VA. These CIGS should clear by the mid to late morning of Thursday. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms return Thursday, with the probability 20% or less by Friday (better chances N/NW of an RIC-SBY line), then 40-60% by Saturday, and less than 30% Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected this week. E-NE 10-15 kt winds are expected through the rest of today. - The risk of thunderstorms is lower today but increases again Thursday and Friday. Benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this afternoon are E-NE at 10-15 kt on the north side of a slow moving backdoor cold front. Winds are expected to diminish slightly and shift out of the S-SE overnight at the front lifts north. Seas will be around 3 ft during this time and around 4 ft 20+ nm offshore. S-SE winds prevail into the early morning Thursday before shifting out of the W-SW during the afternoon and into Friday with 2- 4 ft seas. Winds swing around to the N-NW Saturday and then NE Sunday. Daily chances for storms are anticipated through the week, however, the chance this afternoon is comparatively lower than the past few days. Chances for more widespread storms, some strong to severe, increase Thursday and Friday as the cold front progresses north. SMWs will be issued as necessary. A moderate rip current risk is forecast today due to nearshore 3 ft waves and choppy surf. A low risk returns for the rest of the week. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed tomorrow for some additional calibration. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET AVIATION...AJZ/HET MARINE...SW/AGK EQUIPMENT...  854 FXUS65 KMSO 081938 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Breezy winds 15 to 25 mph today will cause choppy conditions on area lakes. Thunderstorms are possible in southwest Montana and Lemhi County, with about a 5% chance of a severe storm. - Warmest temperatures of the summer this weekend through early next week. - Low relative humidity and increased west winds will result in elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday and Sunday. Radar returns early this morning showed waning convection over northwest Montana spawned by an elongated trough of low pressure centered over the coast of British Columbia. A surface low south and east of this trough will push a cold front through the Northern Rockies this afternoon, bringing increased winds. Expect choppy conditions on area lakes, especially Flathead Lake this afternoon. Instability, aided by the cold front, will also increase this afternoon, bringing chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The geographical focus of thunderstorm activity will be southwest Montana and Lemhi County. The combination of instability, shear, and moisture will be greatest for eastern Lemhi and Silver Bow counties, which is where there will be about a 5% chance for a severe thunderstorm (58 mph winds and/or 1 inch diameter hail). The rest of southwest Montana and Lemhi County should expect thunderstorms to produce gusty outflow winds of about 30-40 mph, small hail, brief heavy rain, and lightning. High pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies going into the weekend. Thunderstorm activity will decrease on Thursday. Model soundings indicate some increased instability on Friday evening, so not ruling out another round of (sub-severe) thunderstorms then. Temperatures will bounce up on Saturday and stay elevated into early next week. Expect daytime high temperatures in the 90s for the valleys of western Montana and triple digits in the Hells Canyon and lower Salmon river valleys. An upper level jet streak will move over the Northern Rockies on Saturday. Strong winds, along with abnormally high temperatures and low relative humidity, will result in concerns for near- critical fire weather conditions in southwest Montana and Lemhi County on Saturday and Sunday. Next week will bring an increase in subtropical moisture. This influx of moisture would elevate the risk for widespread, rain- producing thunderstorms across western Montana and north-central Idaho by midweek, providing a distinct change from the dry, and windy conditions anticipated over the weekend. && .AVIATION...West to northwest surface winds will increase across northwest and west-central Montana terminals, with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph (15 to 20 knots) anticipated. Meanwhile, scattered convective activity is expected across southwest Montana and Lemhi County. The primary threat to aviation operations from these thunderstorms will be erratic, strong outflow boundaries. High- resolution guidance indicates a 25 to 35 percent probability of convective wind gusts exceeding 35 knots near flight routes and terminals along the I-90 and I-15 corridors south of Garrison Junction, with a 5 percent probability of localized gusts reaching up to 50 knots in the most intense cells. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$  975 FXUS63 KILX 081941 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 241 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will bring a risk for damaging wind gusts on Thursday afternoon and evening, with the greatest chances for damaging winds south of I-72. - Periods of heavy rainfall will be a concern from Thursday afternoon through Saturday. The greatest concern for heavy rainfall and flooding potential will also be south of I-72, where there is a 20-30% chance of rainfall exceeding 2 inches. - Potential exists for extreme heat around the middle of next week, though some uncertainty remains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ** THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY ** An unstable airmass with MLCAPE perhaps in excess of 2000 J/kg will reside south of an approaching frontal boundary on Thursday afternoon. It is anticipated that one or more MCVs emanating from overnight convective activity in the central Plains will serve as forcing mechanisms to help initiate convection on Thursday afternoon in central/southeast Illinois. Though shear even into Thursday morning may be on the weak side, the MCV(s) should at least locally enhance 0-6 km shear by Thursday afternoon/evening. In addition, forecast DCAPE values are in excess of 1100-1200 J/kg, particularly south of I-72 where the most likely track of an MCV is. All of these factors together indicate elevated damaging wind potential particularly south of I-72, with an SPC Level 2 severe risk there. It is worth noting that there is some variability concerning the path/development of potential MCVs, with greater convective development perhaps occuring north or south of the most likely track. ** HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY - SATURDAY ** On Thursday, multiple model solutions depict precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches across much of central and southeast Illinois. Steering flow appears to be oriented perpendicular to the initial wave of rainfall Thursday afternoon, but a second wave perhaps associated with a second MCV later in the evening/overnight may provide more of a heavy rain threat with training elements becoming more likely. The path of the MCV(s) on Thursday, as well as associated convective development Thursday afternoon/evening, will be determining factors in how far south the effective frontal boundary pushes going into Friday. Should that boundary become stalled at some point, the heavy rain threat will increase further. Chances of greater than 2 inches of rainfall at any given point near and south of I-72 through Saturday night currently are in the 20-30% range. Isolated totals in excess of 4-5 inches are not outside the realm of possibility, though confidence is low regarding where these isolated high totals may be most likely. ** MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ** Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the pattern for next week. Most solutions depict a strong 500 mb ridge over the central and northern Plains, with variability regarding how far east the center of that ridge spreads and to what degree the ridge influences weather over central and southeast Illinois. A trough centered near Hudson Bay will also have the potential to provide some moderating influence to the ridge, as well as a chance for storms in northwest flow. WPC cluster algorithm for Thu Jul 16 currently shows about 20% of global solutions with the stronger Hudson Bay trough, with about 80% of solutions having a stronger central Plains ridge and/or a weaker trough to the northwest. CPC has the Midwest in a slight-moderate risk for extreme high temperatures during this time period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are largely anticipated to continue at all TAF sites through 18z Thursday. Brief MVFR ceilings may occur early this afternoon. Otherwise, there is a low (~20%) probability of ceilings below 6 kft after 12z Thursday morning as decaying storms approach from the northwest. Low confidence in any fog development Thursday morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...AAT DISCUSSION...AAT AVIATION...AAT  023 FXUS61 KCLE 081942 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 342 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains generally on track. The Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded to include the eastern lakeshore areas and includes more of Northwest Ohio. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms return to the local area Thursday night and Friday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Northwest Ohio and extending east along the lakeshore Thursday evening/night. 2) Conditions dry out over the weekend with temperatures trending above normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a trough moving northeast through the Ohio Valley with moisture spreading north ahead of it. Meanwhile, a northern stream trough is moving into the Upper Midwest and will cross Lake Erie Thursday evening/night. The airmass remains very dry this afternoon with surface high pressure in place but the high is expected to weaken on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the north. Most of the day on Thursday will be dry but can not rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the lake breeze in Northeast Ohio/Northwest Pennsylvania. Otherwise a chance for showers and thunderstorms will be possible in Northwest Ohio by late afternoon with coverage increasing Thursday night as the front approaches. ML CAPE values are forecast to reach 1500-2000 J/kg in NW Ohio along with shear increasing Thursday evening as the shortwave trough passes aloft. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather has been expanded slightly to include more of Northwest Ohio and now extends eastward along the lakeshore which seems reasonable. The primary concern will be wind gusts of 50-60 mph with thunderstorms Thursday evening. Moisture advection will continue on Thursday night with PW values increasing to over 2 inches. Will continue with high pops for Thursday night as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. Will need to monitor for pockets of locally heavy rainfall with training of storms possible with the mean flow set up nearly parallel to the storm motion. On Friday another shortwave will track through the Ohio Valley. Instability may be kept to modest values with higher cloud cover expected. Still expecting continued shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday as the surface front is slow to clear the area. KEY MESSAGE 2... While a few showers may linger across the south on Saturday, the trend will be for drier conditions to develop over the weekend with high pressure building to the north. Low pops remain across the south into Saturday followed by a mostly dry forecast through the extended. While temperatures will be near normal over the weekend, a strong upper level ridge tries to expand east into the Great Lakes early next week. Temperatures are forecast to surpass 90 degrees in portions of the area but will depend on the our proximity to the ridge. There is a larger spread in ensemble temperatures next week based on if the ridge is overhead or if we are on the downstream side of it. Will be monitoring the overall pattern evolution over the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Patchy MVFR ceilings are being observed across the Mahoning Valley this afternoon as diurnal cu have developed. These heights should continue to lift this afternoon, leaving all terminals in VFR conditions for much of the period. The exception to this will be KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG which may once again see a mix of fog/low stratus that impacts terminals between 09Z and sunrise. With moisture gradually diminishing, confidence is not as high as prior days so opted to handle the potential with a TEMPO. Light and variable winds are expected to continue through Thursday morning before increasing to 5-10 knots from the west-southwest by late morning. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Quiet marine conditions are expected to persist across Lake Erie through the weekend. High pressure today and tomorrow will keep winds from the southwest at 5-10 knots and waves in the nearshore below 2 feet. Thursday night, a cold front will sag south of the lake marking a shift to west-northwest winds. There is a potential for scattered thunderstorms during the evening hours which may locally enhance winds and waves, but widespread conditions should remain calm. The cold front continues to push south on Friday as high pressure returns from the north over the lake. Winds will gradually shift to northeasterly at 10-15 knots on Saturday and Sunday afternoons with waves in the western basin building to 1-3 feet. Overnight winds will remain calm. There are no anticipated marine headlines at this time. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...04 MARINE...04  026 FXUS61 KLWX 081942 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 342 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is increasing in a threat for severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding on Thursday. A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for Annapolis for tonight's high tide. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Saturday. - 2) Drier conditions return early next week, along with a slight uptick in temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday. A frontal zone has stalled out across North Carolina, arcing northward along the Appalachian Mountains. Weak high pressure is positioned to the north, with onshore flow responsible for the abundance of low clouds and cooler temperatures. Most showers and thunderstorms are developing along the southern and western periphery of the forecast area this afternoon, closer to the frontal zone. The severe weather threat is low. However, precipitable water values remain high in this zone, and slow storm motions could result in heavy rainfall totals. This could result in an isolated instance of flooding, especially if it falls in an area which has recently seen heavy rain. Low clouds will likely fill back in tonight, with some fog or mist possible in some locations. There will also be an opportunity for some showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms during the second half of the night through mid Thursday morning due to warm advection and PVA across the stalled frontal zone. This activity shouldn't be hazardous, but there may be some briefly heavy rain. An upper level low over the Tennessee Valley today will open and eject eastward on Friday. The frontal zone will likely lift northward, allowing deeper moisture to advect over the region along with slightly higher temperatures. A wave of low pressure may also develop along the boundary. All combined, convection will likely initiate over the terrain and within a pressure trough during the midday hours, spreading eastward through the afternoon. Coverage will likely be high enough, combined with shear up to 30 kt, that activity could congeal into clusters east of the Blue Ridge. This could result in strong to damaging wind gusts. Given the moist profiles and weak low level winds, higher end wind damage is less likely compared to some recent events. Confidence is increasing in the overall severe weather potential, with SPC indicating a Slight Risk now along the I-95 corridor. Even though storms will have some forward motion, precipitable water values over 2 inches will lead to very heavy rain rates. Thus any repetitive or conglomerating storms could result in flash flooding, especially if the rain were to fall in more sensitive areas. WPC has increased the excessive rainfall outlook to Slight for a large part of the area. Storms will likely quickly exit during the evening hours. Temperatures will likely tick up a bit more on Friday, with some areas crossing into the 90s. A more pronounced shortwave trough will approach, helping push a cold front southward toward the area. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop again in the warm and humid air mass, although there is some question in coverage and strength given unidirectional westerly flow along with lower instability compared to Thursday. With that said, there will be some mentionable shear with the trough, and storms will be capable of producing heavy rain rates. Thus there could be an attendant risk for damaging winds and flooding depending on how the details unfold. The front will remain nearby on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will linger, although the exactdetails become more uncertain by this point. Temperatures are also likely lower with the front overhead. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions return early next week, along with a slight uptick in temperatures. High pressure moves overhead on Sunday, along with a broad upper- level ridge forming over the northern Plains. Heights begin to build toward the middle of next week as the upstream ridge attempts to expand eastward. This will lead to a gradual decrease in rain & thunderstorm chances early next week, as well as a gradual uptick in temperature forecasts. After falling to the low 80s on Sunday in the wake of Saturday's cold front, highs could reach the low-to-mid 90s by midweek, which will overall be a return to near-normal temperatures for this period of the summer. Cloud cover could still be slow to clear on Sunday, but should gradually become sunnier by Monday and Tuesday. Looking ahead, a deep upper-level trough begins to form over the Northeast by midweek, which could introduce additional rain chances as it passes through by late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds are slowly lifting and scattering out this afternoon, although it may take a couple more hours for all locations to return to VFR. The greatest chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening will be at CHO. While confidence has increased enough for a TAF mention, it is uncertain how well thunderstorms hold together crossing the Blue Ridge into a slightly more stable airmass. Winds gradually shift to south to southeasterly by this evening. Another round of low clouds are looking likely tonight, and some patchy fog/mist is also possible toward dawn. There is also an increasing chance of showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms crossing the area in advance of a warm front late tonight through mid morning Thursday. Given model disagreement in timing and coverage, only included a PROB30 for now. Expect a return to VFR conditions by mid morning Thursday. Confidence is increasing in thunderstorms developing near MRB early Thursday afternoon before progressing east across the area during the afternoon to early evening. Strong wind gusts and very heavy rain will be possible. Fog may form in the wake of the storms Thursday night. There will be a threat of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday as a cold front slowly settles across the area. After the front passes to the south early Sunday, predominantly VFR conditions are expected through Monday. Northerly winds shift easterly by Sunday evening. && .MARINE... A wavering front and weak pressure gradients will result in sub-advisory winds through Friday. Southerly winds tonight and Thursday will shift westerly Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible both Thursday and Friday, with the greatest chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and early evening. A cold front tracks through on Saturday, potentially causing a few showers over the waters and thunderstorm-associated gusts. Outside of thunderstorms, winds stay below SCA thresholds through the weekend and into early next week. Winds flow northwesterly Saturday before shifting easterly by Sunday evening. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Anomalies are around 1-1.5 feet this afternoon. Winds will turn more southerly tonight, leading to a further uptick in water levels. This will likely result in near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline through the end of the week. Annapolis is most likely to reach the minor flood threshold, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for tonight's high tide. Havre de Grace will also be close. A gradual decline in water levels is expected this weekend. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AMEDT Thursday for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADS/SRT AVIATION...ADS/SRT MARINE...ADS/SRT  044 FXUS64 KMOB 081943 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. - A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper trough now lifting across the Tennessee Valley will continue to weaken as it becomes absorbed into the westerlies through Thursday, resulting in a weak zonal flow pattern aloft through Friday. Seasonably high moisture, with PWATs locally exceeding 2 inches, along with strong instability will maintain our typical summertime pattern through Friday. Coverage appears a bit lower this afternoon compared to Thursday and Friday. Latest CAM guidance suggests scattered showers and storms developing near the coast during the morning hours on Thursday and Friday along the land breeze. This activity would be expected to shift inland by afternoon as our background low-level flow becomes more southwesterly on Thursday, allowing the sea breeze to progress a bit farther inland each afternoon. Any stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. A pattern shift takes shape this weekend into early next week as a pronounced positively tilted shortwave trough extends westward from larger-scale troughing developing off the northeast U.S. coast. As a large upper high builds over the north-central U.S., this shortwave will dive southeastward, placing the area under a northwesterly midlevel flow and driving a large-scale backdoor cold front south into the region late in the weekend into early next week. Increasing moisture ahead of this disturbance will support a gradual increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms, with scattered to numerous activity (40-60% PoPs) expected by Saturday and potentially widespread coverage in spots on Sunday and Monday. Ensemble mean PWATs climbing above the 90th percentile of climatology may favor enhanced rainfall rates, and trends will be monitored for a localized flooding threat. Uncertainty exists regarding the exact timing and southward extent of the front and shortwave progression, which will influence where the heaviest rainfall ultimately develops. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot through Saturday, with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 90s and peak afternoon heat indices in the 100-107 range. Overnight lows offer little relief with mid 70s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Increased rainfall and cloud cover along with the potential cool front entering the region may bring highs down into the 80s for many areas Sunday into early next week, especially over the interior. At the beaches, a Low risk of rip currents is expected today and Thursday before increasing to a Moderate risk on Friday for all area beaches, persisting through the weekend. JGC/98 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Afternoon thunderstorms are unlikely, but cannot be ruled out. /73 && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southwest to west flow will prevail through late week, becoming southerly Friday into the weekend. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet by the weekend. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 40 Pensacola 79 93 79 92 / 10 30 20 30 Destin 81 92 81 91 / 20 20 20 30 Evergreen 74 94 74 93 / 10 40 10 50 Waynesboro 74 95 74 94 / 20 30 10 20 Camden 74 93 75 93 / 10 40 10 30 Crestview 75 95 75 93 / 10 30 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  074 FXUS65 KPUB 081943 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 143 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday, forming over the mountains each day and moving over the plains. - Flash flooding concerns persist for the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Severe weather will be possible over the eastern plains this evening, then again Thursday and Friday. - Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, as moisture gradually increases across western Colorado starting Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Flat upper high pressure area continues to stretch from southern CA across the Four Corners into the US southern Plains. Upper shortwaves sliding across the region will kick off convective activity through this evening, and again on Thursday. Currently...A bit more convective activity across the forecast area this afternoon, with all storms slowly pushing east and are struggling to maintain any strength, at least initially. As of 1 PM, temps have warmed into the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Main plains locations will likely hit 100F later this afternoon. Tonight...Main concerns this evening will be flash flood threat across the Aspen Acres burn scar, and developing severe weather threat for the far eastern plains. Given current activity on radar, feel that the Flash Flood Watch for the AA Fire is a good thing this evening through 8 PM. Given how fresh the burn is and how hydrophobic the ground likely is, any storm crossing the area will be a concern. Much of the activity should push east of the AA Fire by 8 PM. Second, SPC had painted a large portion of the eastern plains within a Slight, and even have an Enhanced touching Kiowa County. There is some favorable CAPE for the plains tonight, but does not necessarily sync up with the best forecast bulk shear. Regardless, as storms push east late this afternoon and eve they may be able to tap into the increased llvl moisture and some favorable shear, enough for potentially some damaging wind gusts and large hail. Best time window out east looks to be now until 8 PM, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Crowley, Otero, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties. Plan on mild overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Tomorrow...Similar set-up for Thursday, though a degree or two cooler, and hi-res models are showing much more favorable CAPE and bulk shear for the plains. Therefore, with the continuing threat of greater areal coverage of storms along the eastern slopes of the eastern mts, issued another Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres Fire for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Across the east, SPC Day 2 Outlook paints much of the plains within a Slight area, and it actually looks more favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon through the eve. As for fire weather conditions, some spotty critical conditions may develop across the San Luis Valley in the afternoon, but at this time winds are a little questionable so will hold off on any highlights. Farther north for Fire Zone 220, affecting the Willow Fire, near critical fire weather conditions are forecast as well with gusty winds definitely there, and only question will be how low the RH gets in the aftn. Look for high temps in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday night and Friday...Plan on a mild night with moderate RH recovery, with lows in the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. Upper high starts to amplifyFriday, leading to drying across UT and western CO. Long range models do show another upper disturbance dropping south across the central US plains and eastern CO, keeping storm chances in play for the CO plains Fri afternoon and evening, some of which will likely be strong to severe. Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Spotty critical fire weather conditions continue across the San Luis Valley, as well as across Lake and Chaffee counties. Saturday through Wednesday...Upper ridge migrates to the north and northeast over the weekend and into the upcoming work week, providing for lingering hot conditions for the entire area into the middle of the upcoming work week. Though the eastern plains will likely remain dry, the track of the upper high does allow for some monsoon moisture to start creeping northward into western CO starting Monday, with some isolated convection spilling over along the Continental Divide. Moore && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Isolated to scattered convection will fire over the mts by midday then track east, so maintained PROB30 wording from roughly 20z-02z for all three sites for -TSRA and VRB gusts 35-40 kts. Further east, storms may become strong to severe, producing gusts up to 60 mph and large hail. Light diurnal sfc winds are forecast by around midnight and for the remainder of the forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOORE  114 FXUS63 KSGF 081945 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less than 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in south central Missouri this afternoon. Most areas stay dry. - 30-50% chances of storms Thursday, and 40-70% chance Thursday night. Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes. - Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday, but cloud cover and rain chances limit confidence in excessive heat occurring. - 40-75% rain chances continue into the weekend with attendant low confidence in locations of severe and flooding risks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The closed mid-level low that has been sitting over Missouri is still very, very slowly moving eastward, currently centered just NE of the Missouri bootheel as noted in water vapor imagery. The moisture that was residing within the low has therefore also shifted east, with locally northerly flow aloft bringing in dry very dry air over much of our region as noted in our 12Z sounding. Due to the drier air, despite temperatures on track to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, dewpoints in the 60s will limit Heat Index values to below 100 F. Elsewhere, flow is somewhat more zonal, most notably within the relatively stronger flow across the northern CONUS. At the southern periphery of the stronger flow, a synoptic surface cold front is situated over NE into IA/MN. South of MO, a surface warm front is developing as a result of weak lee cyclogenesis over the OK/TX panhandle region. Low chance for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon: Due to the pocket of moisture situated within the weak closed low aloft in the bootheel region, weak small showers have fired in extreme south-central MO. This is expected to continue through the heat of the day with only a 15-20% chance of isolated showers and storms over the same region. Given the very small area of these showers as well as the isolated nature, many areas will remain dry. Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon: Thunderstorms across the central Plains are expected to be dissipating as they translate east into our region early Thursday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible along this remnant complex through Thursday morning (30-50% chance). These are expected to remain sub-severe as wind shear will be quite weak. The complex will create an Mesoscale Convective Vortex that will move east through Missouri during the day Thursday. The resulting subtle turning of winds with height ahead of the MCV will locally enhance shear (generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49) with lift along residual outflow within this regime to focus new thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon (generally after 2 PM). Short-term guidance is still a bit varied on the magnitude of shear which will influence hazards a bit, but the HREF mean suggests 20-30 kts of deep-layer shear, promoting multi-cell clusters as the main storm mode. High temperatures in the lower 90s will result in inverted-V temperature in conjunction with sufficient Theta-E diffs which could promote greater downdrafts and microbursts within any stronger storm. Therefore, damaging winds up to 60 to 70 mph will be the main risk. Any taller storm may produce small hail up to quarters at the largest size. There is a conditional risk for landspouts and/or tornadoes depending on how the MCV influences the environment. Three things need to occur for this risk to evolve. 1) The MCV needsto be strong enough to increase low-level shear/curvature. 2) Dewpoints need to be on the upper-end of the percentile spectrum (mid to upper 70s). And 3) temperatures need to be a bit cooler to lower dewpoint depressions and resulting LCLs. If these occur, some weak tornadoes will be possible. On the flipside, strong surface heating could lead to >8 C/km 0-1 km lapse rates, which in the vicinity of near surface vorticity from the MCV and synoptic fronts, could promote lanspouts. These are both very low confidence and conditional risks, however. We will need to see how conditions evolve through the day Thursday. Slight (2 of 4) Risk for flooding Thursday night: As night falls, focus then shifts to more of a flooding risk. A 30-40 kt nocturnal low-level jet is forecast to develop across southern Missouri, which will be in the vicinity of the daytime storm's outflows and the synoptic surface fronts. Convergence at the nose of the LLJ within a zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 1.8-2.0 in PWATs (ranged from HREF mean and RAP forecasts) will bring a 40-75% chance for further shower and thunderstorm development throughout Thursday night. Due to any residual outflow and the synoptic front resulting in a largely W-E orientation, parallel to the mean 850-500 mb flow, training of storms and resulting excessive rainfall and flash flooding will be possible overnight Thursday. Thermodynamics will allow for thunderstorms with rain rates up to 1-3 in/hr. That said, the orientation of the LLJ will be west-southwesterly, which may limit the overall magnitude of isentropic upglide lift which may keep coverage on the lower side keeping the flooding threat very localized to where storms train most. Anywhere that sees multiple storms may see localized amounts up to 3-5 inches. Additionally, with elevated instability and sufficient shear, large hail up to quarters will be possible, but given the warm and moist profiles, the risk is expected to be lower (5% or less within 25 miles of any point. Low confidence HeatRisk Thursday and Friday: Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 90s Thursday and Friday with moisture increasing. This may lead to Heat Index values around 100-105 F. However, with expected MCV cloud debris and outflow each day, confidence is limited in widespread excessive heat. Greater Heat Index values would be limited to areas that see the most sunshine during the daytime. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 40-75% rain chances continue through the weekend: With only weak mid-level energy traversing the central CONUS through the weekend, the synoptic thermal boundary will only slowly sag southward which will allow it to hang around the region Friday through Sunday. This will continue to bring 40-75% rain chances through Sunday (highest being 50-75% Friday night). Given little modification to the surrounding environment, some severe storms and localized flooding will continue to be possible through Sunday. At the moment, the entire area is in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe weather Friday and a Marginal (1 of 4) to Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall Friday through Sunday. Exact details are still very uncertain due to weak flow aloft making mesoscale details of each complex very important in how the location and magnitude of threats evolve each day. "Cooler" Temperatures to begin next week: An overturning wave break over the northern CONUS into the southeast states will bring more seasonable temperatures to the area to start next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. In the extended 7-14 day range, the wave break will dip into the Ozarks, bringing another heat dome to the area. The CPC gives a 60-70% chance of Heat Index values exceeding 105 Fat some point during the July 13-17 timeframe. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current VFR conditions at 18Z consist of southwesterly 5-10 kt winds and a sparse cu field at 4-5 kft. This will continue through 00-02Z. At that time, a warm front will move through, shifting the light winds to more southerly, with the cu field dissipating with sunset. Main aviation concern comes after 10Z. Guidance suggests a decaying thunderstorm complex could move in from the west or northwest between 10-13Z. There is a 30-50% chance of this at JLN, and a 20-40% chance of it reaching SGF and JLN. There is lingering uncertainty on if scattered remnant showers remain over the TAF sites through the remainder of the period. Have placed a PROB30 at this timeframe to capture the uncertainty. Otherwise, winds will shift to southwesterly at 8-12 kts after 12Z with multiple layers of cloud debris from the decaying complex. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Price  340 FXUS64 KBMX 081947 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 247 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 243 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 - Thunderstorms: Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for now through the beginning of next week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 243 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 In the lower levels this afternoon, a stationary boundary is situated well to our northwest and north, from AR into TN/KY. It will meander a bit through Thursday before fizzling out. In the upper levels, there is a weakening upper low over the Mid MS River Valley that is expected to open up and be absorbed into the main zonal flow to the north of it by late Thursday. Through the short term that will help to focus our diurnal convection generally to the northern third of Central Alabama with more isolated activity in the south. Also in the upper levels, flat ridging over the SW US coast is expected to expand across the Western US this weekend. Guidance has a shortwave progressing eastward out of it Friday that will allow for troughing to build across portions of Eastern Conus this weekend. That with plenty of low level onshore flow moisture will allow for continued increased storm chances for this weekend. In addition, the upper flow will in turn help to nudge a rare July surface front southward. There is a medium chance that this front may have enough push to get through Central Alabama during the first part of next week in the Monday and Tuesday time frame. The extra cloud cover and rain chances will help to keep temperature down a couple of degrees. However, we are not expecting any major cool down at this time as the boundary may stall and push back northward by the middle of next week. 08 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 Generally VFR conditions are expected outside of storms. Widely scattered diurnally enhanced summertime convection will be possible for this afternoon. Only confident enough for a PROB30 group at TCL, BHM, and EET. It is too hard to pinpoint. Will be monitoring closely for any needed amendments. Otherwise, winds will be out of the west to west-northwest 5-10kts outside of convection with mixing and light and variable overnight. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue. Thunderstorms will remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain low through the beginning of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 91 72 91 / 20 50 30 50 Anniston 72 90 73 90 / 20 40 30 50 Birmingham 74 91 74 92 / 20 40 30 50 Tuscaloosa 73 91 74 92 / 20 40 20 30 Calera 73 94 73 95 / 20 40 30 40 Auburn 74 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 30 Montgomery 75 93 74 93 / 10 40 20 20 Troy 74 93 73 92 / 10 40 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  432 FXUS61 KOKX 081950 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 350 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and flash flood threat on Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. Increasingly warm and muggy on Thu and Fri, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s for one day on Friday. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Good agreement on Mid-Mississippi River valley closed upper low shearing towards the region Thu aft/eve, with a resultant weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid- Atlantic, and lee/pre-frontal surface trough developing and approaching from the west. These features should be able to provide a trigger/focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across NYC/NJ metro and N&W in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment. Severe threat should be limited in this environment, but can't rule out an isolated damaging pulse wet microburst threat, particularly if there is more in the way of sun allowing for moderate instability development. Environment is more conducive to an isolated flash flood threat with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and MBE vectors less than 5kt. Higher flash flood threat appears to be across SE PA/S NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Still an isolated flash flood risk is signaled for the NYC/NE NJ metro region in the high res- guidance, depicted thru being on the edge of HREF 10% ensemble prob for 3"/3hr, and HRSW ARW and NSSL WRF indicating max NY/NJ metro neighborhood value of 2 1/2 to 3" in 3/hr in WPC URRD. Will address in HWO, and let midnight shift evaluate any northward trends. Diminishing severe/flash flood threat in the late evening in wake of trough. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a stronger cold front approaching the region in the afternoon/evening. Trigger and focus is once again there for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri aft/eve, with an isolated severe/flash flood threat. A slightly better severe threat on Friday aft/eve with 30-35kt deep layer shear profile to complement marginal to locally moderate instability environment. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Flash flood threat looks a bit lower than Thursday with slightly lower PWATS (mid- level drying in wake of Thursday pre- frontal trough) and quicker anticipated storm movement. Flash flood threat will ultimately be contingent on moisture pooling ahead of cold front, storm coverage, and potential SW to NE training along frontal boundary based on MBE vectors. Temperatures will continue to moderate to near seasonable levels on Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s On Friday, with max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon at the NYC area terminals, as well as at KSWF. PROB30 groups were maintained during the timeframe where TSRA is most likely, which is generally between 18Z and 22Z Thursday, depending on location (on the earlier side for the terminals farther to the west; on the later side to the east). Winds have shifted to S/SW at less than 10kts and will remain that way through Thursday afternoon. Winds pick up slightly at 10-15kts Thursday afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday afternoon through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected Thu and Fri with modest S/SW flow of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible fro ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into MOnday with high pressure building towards and then over the waters. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV AVIATION...BJG MARINE...NV  462 FXUS63 KDMX 081951 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight, with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. - Heavy rainfall is possible with storms tonight, with a slight uptrend in precip totals. - High pressure is expected to set up over the central U.S. this weekend into next week, bringing much warmer temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently, showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across southern Minnesota along a boundary which is expected to push south/southeast through the afternoon and evening. This forecast gets tricky because there are two areas where convection is expected. The first is along the aforementioned boundary across southern MN, and the other is along an area of deep moisture convergence across western Iowa/eastern Nebraska. Other than potential forcing mechanisms, the environment is more or less the same for each area. Shear is somewhat lacking for widespread severe weather, with 0-6km values between 25kts on the low end and 45kts on the high end depending on the model. The most favorable areas for shear are across far northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, with another somewhat favorable area in western Iowa. The primary hazards with storms today are damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. As for the damaging winds, soundings have the inverted-V shape to them with T/Td spreads at the surface of nearly 20 degrees. D-CAPE values are between 1000 and 1500 J/kg across much of Iowa and guidance shows wind gusts of between 60 and 70mph through the evening. Some potential uncertainty exists with how long storms would remain severe. Weaker shear values may lead to cold pools outrunning storm clusters which leads to a shorter and less widespread severe window. Should this be the case, after thunderstorms mature redevelopment could occur between the outflow boundary and the main cluster. New updrafts in this in between zone would lower the severe wind threat later this evening. As for heavy rain, PWAT values still remain in the neighborhood of 2". Storms are expected to be somewhat slow-moving today, between 25 and 30mph. Rainfall totals have been trending upward slightly. REFS and HREF values for the 90th percentile are still between 2 and 3 inches in areas of western and northern Iowa. Both are also hinting at a signal for isolated instances of 3-4" or more of rainfall. Mean values from the HREF and REFS are between 1 and 2 inches. Of note, the axis of heaviest rainfall is still being progged away from areas that received heavy rainfall this past weekend. With regards to the hail and tornado threat for tonight, both are low and very conditional. Hail is a balancing act between high CAPE values (2000-3000 J/kg) and decent lapse rates (7+ C/km) will be fighting a very high melting level and weak shear. The tornado threat is much more conditional and will be very short lived. Overall SRH values are very low across much of the area, and a brief spin-up along the boundary with storm initiation is possible, in addition to a few funnel clouds due to enhanced stretching, although both cases have a low chance of happening. Overnight, as the cluster to the west grows it is expected to dive south and ride the CAPE gradient. For the most part, this cluster will be limited in its northern and eastern extent through the evening. Some guidance suggests that after sunset, instability is lost and storms across central Iowa aren't able to sustain themselves, limiting the spatial coverage to west-central and southwestern Iowa. The Low Level Jet is expected to kick in sometime around midnight, although it doesn't look like it will have a large impact on any activity this far north. If the LLJ can nose further into Iowa, this would help increase storm coverage into central and south-central Iowa as the cluster moves to the southeast. Tomorrow will be warm, humid, and largely dry through the day. Highs around the state will range from the mid 80s to potentially the low 90s. Compared to previous forecasts, the LLJ is progged to kick in farther south across Missouri. With the LLJ coming in farther south, some showers and thunderstorms may graze far southern Iowa tomorrow night as opposed to being more widespread across southern Iowa. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another 500mb shortwave is progged to pass over Iowa Friday before a high sets up this weekend pancakes much of the central U.S. Monday. Once the high sets up, an increase in temperatures is expected with highs making a run for the 90s through the early part of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites at this issuance. However, as a surface boundary dives south into Iowa, increasing chances for showers and storms will exist. Showers and storms will bring categorical reductions and gusty and erratic outflow winds. Showers will taper off toward 12Z but behind the departing showers and storms, MVFR CIGS will impact KFOD, KMCW and KALO through the rest of the period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Area rivers and streams that peaked earlier this week after the heavy rain late last week into the weekend continue to recede but many in the Cedar and Des Moines basins remain elevated, some close to action stage. 3 hour flash flood guidance in much of northern to central Iowa is only 2-2.5" with much higher amounts in western and southern Iowa. This is largely due to the footprint of where the heavy rain has occurred most recently. Similarly, NASA SPoRT 10 cm soil moisture remains elevated near the Hwy 20-Hwy 30 corridors. Some inconsistencies remain in models on how widespread storms will be through portions of central Iowa with greater confidence in the far north/northeast and in the west/southwest. Despite this, it may not take much rain to renew flooding in locations that have recently experienced flooding so issued a Flood Watch for those areas, and in locations in northeast Iowa where model QPF is highest with HREF PMM data suggesting 2-3", localized 4". These QPF totals are also seen in portions of western Iowa, but as previously noted, flash flood guidance is much higher in these areas. In terms of the environment, Pwats top out around 2" near and along the boundary as it moves southward through the night. These are combined with more than sufficient warm cloud depths. Storm motions aren't overly slow, but repeated rounds of rain may still occur as additional storms form on the outflow from initial storms. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ006-016-047- 059. Flood Watch through Thursday morning for IAZ007-017-025>028- 036>039-048>050-060-061. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Vorst HYDROLOGY...05  530 FXUS65 KSLC 081953 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 153 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... - High based convection will again develop this afternoon, primarily over northern portions of the forecast area. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong outflow winds to 60 mph. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. Critical fire weather conditions will continue Thursday over southern Utah. - A notable heat wave will develop over the weekend with high temperatures challenging daily and monthly records Saturday and Sunday. Most valleys and some mountain valleys have a greater than 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red (major) range, bringing an increased chance of heat related illnesses. - Confidence is increasing the monsoonal moisture will move into the area by the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... High pressure is centered roughly near the Utah/Colorado border late this morning, putting Utah and southwest Wyoning under a breezy west to southwest flow aloft. High based moisture remains in place over northern Utah, while drier air advects in from the southwest. High temperatures will stay on the mild side with maxes running up to 5F above seasonal normals. A weak shortwave is expected to move through the ridge and across northern portions of the forecast area late this afternoon into the evening, with the feature looking a bit better defined than the one that moved through yesterday. Overall, seeing less in the way of shear compared to yesterday, but a bit more CAPE, up to 500 J/kg most likely. Thus, already starting to see showers and thunderstorms developing, currently focused over northwest Utah, with areal coverage and extent both increase late this afternoon into the evening. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong and gusty outflow winds, with the possibility of at least isolated severe gusts later today. The ridge axis is expected to redevelop off the southern California coast on Thursday, bringing a more westerly component to the flow and allowing additional drier air to make its way into the area, particularly over southern Utah. With some moisture continuing to linger and another shortwave on track to move through during the afternoon, anticipate the development of at least a few showers and thunderstorms, though coverage will likely be a bit less than what is anticipated for today. As the airmass continues to dry and strong high pressure builds substantially over the western United States, confidence is high in temperatures across Utah and southwest Wyoming shooting up to record challenging levels for Saturday and Sunday. Guidance continues to show the center of the ridge over Utah on Saturday and just east of the area on Sunday. Guidance has, if anything, gone up with regard to the forecast compared to yesterday, with the majority of valleys and mountain valleys showing at least a 60 percent chance of red (major) HeatRisk for both Saturday and Sunday. It seems all but certain that daily temperature records will be broken, with some monthly and (in the case of the Cache Valley) all time records forecast to be broken. Given this and many valley low temperatures staying in the 70s overnight, this will predictably bring a quite increased chance of heat related illnesses over the weekend. Given the high confidence in the forecast, have gone ahead and issued an Extreme Heat Watch for all of those areas with at least a 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red, which includes just about all valleys (lower Washington county excluded) and many mountain valleys. As the forecast comes in clearer focus over the next couple of days, upcoming shifts will make decisions about advisories and warnings. With southerly flow expected to increase over the area for the early and middle part of the upcoming week, models continue to indicate a high likelihood of monsoonal moisture returning to the area, bringing temperatures down and rain chances up. While this would decrease the fire danger, it brings an increased potential for flash flooding, particularly for southern Utah. && .AVIATION... KSLC...There is low confidence in wind direction this afternoon and especially this evening given isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area. The main lightning threat will be limited to before 00z, however gusty outflow winds will remain a major question through 08z or so. Outside of any localized outflow winds, northwesterlies should prevail through the afternoon, becoming reinforced around ~02-04z with gusts to 20-30kts as broader outflow from storms over northwest Utah reach KSLC. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty outflow winds will continue to develop this afternoon primarily across northern Utah and portions of eastern Utah. The main lightning threat will be mostly during the afternoon hours, though outflow winds will remain a threat through 08z or so across the north. Thus, confidence is low in wind direction for the northern TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... The airmass will trend drier today under a west- southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts west off the northern Baja coast. Afternoon relative humidities will drop below 15% across most of central and southern Utah, down to the single digits in some valley locales. Meanwhile, across northern Utah, lingering moisture will maintain isolated to scattered mainly high-based showers and thunderstorms, with isolated dry lightning and gusty outflow winds being the main threat. While chances of showers and thunderstorms across the central mountains and adjacent valleys are nonzero, they are expected to be much more isolated there today. Meanwhile, enhanced winds combined with the low humidities will once again drive critical fire weather conditions across portions of central and southern Utah today. The drying trend will continue across the area through the rest of the week, with humidities continuing to trend downward across the area and overnight recoveries become increasingly poor especially across central and southern Utah. Convection will become increasingly isolated during this time as well. Breezy conditions are expected to persist into Thursday and perhaps Friday as relative humidities continue to decrease. For now, have extended the Red Flag Warning for southern Utah into Thursday, and will keep an eye on trends for Friday. As high pressure builds back into the area for the weekend into the beginning of next week, dry and very hot conditions can be expected. Temperatures are very likely to reach at least 100 degrees in most valleys over the weekend, while relative humidities in the single digits will be common. However, the pattern still looks favorable for moisture to increase into the area beginning early next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ101>108-114>116-118>122-128>131. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-493-497. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ495-496-498. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Cunningham FIRE WEATHER...Cheng/Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  700 FXUS63 KMPX 081957 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe thunderstorms are possible in these areas. The primary concern is damaging winds. - Chances for additional rainfall after today are few and far between, with temperatures heating up into the 90s this weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Let's begin! Regional radar highlights decaying showers along a quasi-stationary boundary draped across southern Minnesota and into west-central Wisconsin. This boundary will be the catalyst for additional thunderstorm develop this afternoon/evening that I'll touch on later. The winner from last night's rainfall was central MN where 2 to 4" fell with lesser amounts across south-central MN, the Twin Cities Metro, and western WI. Fast forwarding to current time, overcast skies have limited temperatures to the 70s with light winds present. This has made for a rather gloomy and damp day across the region. This afternoon through Tonight... our attention turns back to the stalled frontal boundary draped across southern MN. Instability will build in along and ahead of this boundary this afternoon. Forecast soundings along I-90 paint 2000+ MLCAPE and sufficient lapse rates given the better atmospheric recovery. The limiting factor will the lack of better low level wind shear. This shouldn't prevent severe weather but it'll limit how impactful or the higher end threats. Forecast soundings are supportive of clusters or multi-celluar storms that could include an embedded supercell-type structure. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of S MN and WC WI this afternoon and evening to address the potential for severe. However, the frontal boundary's position along or just north of I-90 will limit the potential impacts to MPX's CWA. Storms initiate mid- late afternoon in SC and SE MN along the I-90 corridor. As the storms intensify they'll likely move downstream to ARX and DMX's CWA in N IA/SE MN so the window for severe weather is mostly closed, but non-zero. The primary concerns will be damaging winds and maybe a brief tornado yet again the best chance of severe exists down stream given the current position of the frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall is also possible along I-90 but the storm motion will limit the potential for any significant rainfall amounts. Thursday through Saturday... the winds of change begin to usher in a pattern change. Broad troughing over the Gulf of Alaska will begin to dig into the Pacific NW and off the West Coast. This causes our mid and upper level pattern to amplify in response to the western troughing. The ridge begins building in over the Central Plains and Mountain West Friday into Saturday. This will usher in a less active, much warmer pattern for the weekend and into next week. Sunday through the middle of next week... An impressive 600dm ridge will become centered over southern Minnesota. I am opting to lean onto the AIFS & ECMWF suite more than the GEFS for the upcoming warm up given the consistency with both the deterministic Euro and the AIFS + their ensembles. There is still some uncertainty for the exact intensity and placement, but a 597 to 600dm ridge typically means we'll have some impressive heat in place Sunday into the middle of next week. This is a fairly stand out pattern that is not typical for this portion of the CONUS. The EPS has a +3 sigma anomaly with respect to the 500mb ridge. That's about as much of an outlier event as you can get. That also means that our machine learning guide will likely be slightly cooler with respect to surface temps given this falls out of most historical cases it would use to train on. Will it be a dry heat? Well for some it will be a drier heat than we previously had, but surface dew points still end up in the mid to upper 60s each day. This is far better than if they were in the mid to upper 70s. It is too early to say if we'll have any extreme heat products, but the lack of higher humidity/Td's means we'll rely more so on actual air temps. It will also limit our rain/storm chances as the jet will be directed up and over the ridge. Any ridge rider MCS should be well into Canada. The meteorology would support potential highs in the mid to upper 90s Sunday-Tuesday time frame... with a chance of 100 degrees not out of the question depending on how things pan out. EPS has ~10% chance Monday & Tuesday across I-90 and into the Twin Cities metro so it's not a great chance, but there is a chance. BPH OUT. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tricky forecast through this evening with the wavy/wobbly surface front draped over the area in combination with multiple disturbances aloft helping spawn scattered showers/thunderstorms through this evening. Still the best chances for precipitation will be southern-eastern MN through western WI. Therefore, have kept AXN-STC dry while other sites have mention of mainly -RA as CB/TS mention is too difficult to pinpoint with any confidence at any given site. Will need to see how radar trends evolve in order to issue an AMD with CB/TS but the hazard for any given site cannot be ruled out. Behind the precip, ceilings look to drop to MVFR for most locations overnight through Thursday morning, followed by gradually clearing skies as Thursday progresses. Winds will generally run under 10kts, which may force directions to have varying directions. In addition, the thunderstorms and associated outflow boundaries may produce localized breezy/gusty conditions. KMSP...Best timing for rainfall looks to be within the earliest portion of the 08/18z TAF as the greater chances of CB/TS looks to be south and east of MSP, thus have kept mention of MSP precip to just -RA. Still could have some thunder/lightning but no organized storms look to reach MSP today. Conditions become tranquil with lowering ceilings tonight through sunrise tomorrow, followed by partial clearing during the day Thursday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Freeborn. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...JPC