030 FXUS65 KPIH 082001 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 201 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms - Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon for fire weather zone 427 due to thunderstorms - Drier weather returns for Thursday and beyond with hot conditions likely for the weekend. Many low elevations will reach 100 degrees by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Main impact this afternoon and evening will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is at least a slight chance everywhere but most likely spot is in the southern hills south of interstates 84 and 86. Will have much less activity on Thursday but a very slight chance remains. Will start to see the warming Thursday with highs in the 80s mountains and into the low 90s valleys. By Friday will have dry conditions with no thunderstorm threat. Low elevations will reach the mid 90s with 80s to lower 90s mountains. By Saturday and Sunday expecting many low elevations to reach 100 degrees. May see a bit of a wind increase Saturday into Sunday with some 20 to 30 mph wind gusts expected. In the long term as the upper level strong ridge pushes east a bit there is the potential some monsoonal moisture may work north on the back side of the ridge by Tuesday and next Wednesday. So there is at least the potential for some increase in moisture and showers and thunderstorms returning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 956 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main impacts will be potential thunderstorms impacting all TAF sites EXCEPT DIJ, where it appears any lingering shower/storm potential will be minimal and/or not close enough to the airport. We have included PROB30 for BYI, SUN, PIH, and IDA for gusts over 35kts, with some potential for gusts exceeding 45-50kts. We should see showers and storms clear these TAF sites later this evening. VFR weather is expected although we might see a brief reduction during any storm that ends up producing heavier rainfall. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Red flag warning remains in effect for zone 427 until 8 pm with scattered thunderstorms expected. Will have at least isolated coverage all zones this evening. Expect much less thunderstorm coverage on Thursday with hot and dry conditions Saturday and Sunday. Expect a bit of a wind increase Saturday and Sunday as well and could have Red flag conditions for low humidity and wind gusts in zones 475,476, 410 and 411 mainly. In the long term could see a monsoonal moisture increase later next week mid week time frame which may increase chance of showers and thunderstorms again. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ427. && $$ DISCUSSION...GK AVIATION...Keyes FIRE WEATHER...GK  841 FXUS66 KPQR 082000 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 100 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow will continue to yield dry and seasonable weather through this weekend. Temperatures trend warmer early next week as high pressure builds over the Plains. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Tuesday...Largely zonal flow aloft beneath the base of an upper-level trough moving inland through British Columbia has supported more widespread low cloud cover this morning. Satellite trends depict rapid clearing and mostly sunny skies are expected today across the region, save perhaps the far-northern Oregon and south Washington coasts. Another upper trough or closed low moving into British Columbia this weekend will see flow aloft turn southwesterly, resulting in only minor changes to the sensible weather locally, namely a farther inland penetration and delayed clearing of overnight and morning cloud cover. As such, seasonable weather will continue with afternoon high temperatures within a few degrees of 80F inland and in the low to mid 60s along the coast, overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, and largely dry conditions. The only exception may be areas of mist or drizzle along the coast and Coast Range during the early morning hours when marine stratus cover is at its thickest. Early next week, there is high confidence that broad upper ridging will develop over the Central Plains, pushing heights aloft higher and favoring a warming trend locally. Most-likely high temperatures through the first half of next week look to reach the mid to upper 80s inland and mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast, while overnight lows similarly push a few degrees warmer into the 50s across the region. This combination of temperatures continues to support Minor HeatRisk across the majority of the region with isolated areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Portland/Vancouver metro and through the Columbia Gorge. There remains a broad region from Salem north through the Lower Cowlitz Valley and east along the I-84 corridor through the Gorge where there is a 20-50% chance of Moderate HeatRisk on both Monday and Tuesday if forecast temperatures trend warmer, with the highest likelihood in the Lower Tualatin Valley (Beaverton, Tigard, Tualatin) and neighboring portions of Multnomah and Clackamas Counties (Portland, Wilsonville). Chances for Major HeatRisk are 5% or less across the region. Uncertainty in the temperature forecast increases beyond midweek as consensus is relatively low in the long-term evolution of the strong upper ridge. Nonetheless, chances for rain remain minimal through the period. -36 && .AVIATION...Relatively light west to northwest flow aloft today as a broad upper level trough persists over the region. Predominately VFR conditions are expected for inland terminals through much of the TAF period, as there is currently just a 10-20% chance for stratus to redevelop tomorrow morning. Any lingering stratus is expected to scatter out by 21z this afternoon. Coastal locations are more likely to see marine stratus push back onshore after 06-10z Thursday with around a 30-40% chance of IFR conditions developing. Northwest winds are expected to increase this afternoon to around 10-15 kt, while gusts up to 25 kt will be possible along the central Oregon coast. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected with few lingering clouds this afternoon. Only around a 10% chance of MVFR stratus redeveloping after 12z Thu. Northwest winds are expected to increase to around 10-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible between 00-06z Thu. /DH && .MARINE...High pressure will maintain north to northwesterly winds across the coastal waters through the week. Winds generally remain around 15 kt or less, though pressure gradients are expected to tighten later this afternoon and evening producing gusts up to 25 kt near the central Oregon coast. Thus, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters south of Cape Foulweather between 3 PM today and 2 AM tonight. Isolated gusts up to 20-22 kt will also be possible south of Cape Falcon. Conditions ease slightly on Thursday, and moreso on Friday, as a weak front approaches the waters. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  188 FXUS62 KTAE 082003 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 403 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Rain chances decrease some the next couple of days but a increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend and through early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Heat advisory conditions will be in play across the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 DCAPE is sufficient to support isolated marginally-severe storms this afternoon, mainly across our Florida counties. Convective coverage will decrease on Thursday as deep-layer ridging becomes the dominant synoptic-scale influence. Temperatures will remain above normal, but heat indices should remain below advisory criteria across most areas. However, portions of the central and western Big Bend west to the Panama City area may be the exception. The overnight shift will do a final evaluation before any heat advisory is issued. &&sweeps by to our north. A positively-tilted long wave trough .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Ridging will suppress convective activity across much of the area on Friday. However, increased coverage is expected across Southeast Alabama as a bit of shortwave energy sweeps by to our north. A positively-tilted long wave trough will then settle into the Southeast over the weekend and stall just north of the forecast area early next week, along with an attendant surface front. These features will ramp up convective coverage considerably. One more day of above normal temperatures is expected on Saturday. Temps will be near normal on Sunday before extensive cloud cover from showers and storms keep afternoon temps below normal from Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another afternoon of isolated to scattered showers and storms impacting area terminals throughout the afternoon and early evening. MVFR to IFR conditions may briefly occur near/under any downpours and/or thunderstorms. Conditions improve shortly after sunset as activity winds down for the night. Showers and storms are then again expected to begin moving inland tomorrow shortly after sunrise. Wash, rinse, repeat. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through Thursday, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 With a typical summer pattern in place, there are little to no fire weather concerns. Fog Concerns and Other Remarks...No widespread fog is expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts around an inch are forecast for our Florida counties with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. Lower totals are forecast to the north. No flooding is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 94 76 95 / 0 30 0 10 Panama City 81 92 80 92 / 20 30 10 20 Dothan 76 94 75 94 / 0 20 10 40 Albany 76 95 76 95 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 76 97 75 96 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 77 96 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 Apalachicola 81 90 80 90 / 0 20 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ018-019-028-029- 034-118-128-134. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ124>131-144>148- 158>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM....Wool AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Wool HYDROLOGY...Wool  045 FXUS63 KDVN 082001 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 301 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms late this evening for areas north of a line from Belle Plaine IA to Platteville WI. The main hazards will be damaging winds and heavy rain. - Additional storms are likely Thursday and Friday, with heavy downpours and isolated severe possible. - Above normal temperatures next week, with a prolonged period of heat becoming more likely. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current radar and satellite observations show areas of convection along a broken line from northeast NE to west-central WI. These storms will be much of the story for tonight. As the shortwave moves east, storms are expected to grow upscale into a line and move southeast, reaching the Highway 20 and I-380 corridors around 9-10 PM. However, the question is whether they will decay or continue. While CAPE will be sufficient to sustain any updrafts at 1500-2000 J/kg, low lapse rates and limited shear will will be limiting factors. Guidance still remains quite mixed, with the 12Z REFS favoring storms continuing while the 12Z HREF has the storms decay as they reach eastern Iowa. If storms are able to maintain themselves, there is potential for strong to severe storms. This appears most likely for areas north of a line from Belle Plaine IA to Platteville WI. Damaging winds will be the primary severe threat due to DCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Heavy rain will also be possible, which may pose a flash flooding threat, especially in areas that received heavy rain last week. As a result, both SPC and WPC have a Slight/Level 2 risk for severe storms and excessive rainfall for tonight north of a line from Belle Plaine IA to Platteville WI. Additional storm chances are in store for Thursday as a boundary moves southward across the region. A similar environment to today will be in place with moderate instability, low lapse rates, and 15- 25 kts of shear, as well as the potential for lingering showers and clouds from overnight. Thunderstorms will be possible as the boundary passes through, but the threat of strong to severe storms will be low. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday... A final shortwave on Friday will bring the last near-term chances for rainfall. Atmospheric moisture will be greatest along and south of Interstate 80, with guidance showing up to 1.5 inch PWATs and dewpoints in the low 70s. Showers and storms are likely, though severe storms are not expected due to marginal deep layer shear. However, if a convectively augmented MCV were to take place upstream enhancing the wind field, then some severe storms would be possible. Saturday and beyond... Model guidance continues to show a large anomalous upper ridge (00z NAEFS/ENS 2.0 to 2.8 sigma from their ensemble mean) building into the central CONUS. In fact, the 00z GEFS/ENS/GEPS has this ridge encompassing most of the lower 48 by 12z Tuesday with its center not that far away from the local area. As a result, a prolonged period of dry conditions, above normal temps, and building heat is likely. Factoring in evapotranspiration of maturing crops, more heat headlines may be needed for at least a portion of the area. Apparent T probabilities of 95 degrees or higher off the LREF (100 member ensemble of the GEFS/ENS/GEPS) are in the 30-50% range Tuesday-Thursday. If that were not enough, the latest CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook has a Moderate (40-60%) risk of extreme heat for most of the CWA July 16th-18th. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for much, if not all, of the TAF period. Current observations show a field of daytime cumulus at 3500 ft developing along a line from BRL to MLI to just south of DBQ. Winds through daylight hours will remain light and variable. Late tonight in the 09/02-07Z window, there is potential for a decaying cluster of storms to move into eastern IA and impact CID/DBQ. At this time, low confidence in storms continuing has kept these as a PROB30, with mention of TS only at DBQ, where confidence is highest but still limited. If storms are stronger, there may be some brief MVFR/IFR vsbys in heavy rain at CID/DBQ. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ellingworth LONG TERM...Ellingworth/Gross AVIATION...Ellingworth  251 FXUS61 KPHI 082004 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 404 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The risk for severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding Thursday afternoon and evening has slightly increased for portions of southeast Pennsylvania, the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Humidity returns on Thursday along with potential severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Humidity returns on Thursday along with potential severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. Weak high pressure over western New York and western Pennsylvania slides to the south and east this evening and will be off the Mid- Atlantic coast tonight. Return flow sets up behind the departing high, and a light southerly flow tonight will increase during the day Thursday. Dew points in the mid 60s this evening will increase into the upper 60s tonight, and then into the mid 70s on Thursday. Although temperatures will "only" be in the mid 80s or so, which is right around normal for this time of the year, the heat index will be in the low to mid 90s due to those high dew points. The main concern on Thursday will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. With low pressure approaches from the west and tracks towards the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening. A mid-level trough will move into the Northeast with some shortwave energy passing through the Delaware Valley, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey. SBCAPE values will be in excess of 1500 J/kg with PWATS from 2-2.5 inches, highest values from the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, south into Delmarva. 0-6 km shear will be from 25 to 30 kt. The two main threats from severe weather will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather (2 out of 5) for the Delaware Valley south of Philadelphia, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) from around Philadelphia north to Allentown. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, the eastern shores of Maryland, and Delaware, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) for the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. Although some showers and thunderstorms will fire up over far western portions of the forecast area from noon-2pm, the main timing will be from 4pm-10pm across the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. While showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and localized flash flooding are likely for the northern zones as well, the highest impacts in terms of potential severe weather and flash flooding should be focused generally south of Philadelphia. A warm and muggy night with patchy fog developing Thursday night after showers and thunderstorms come to an end by midnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of a cold front moving southward into the area. Similarly to Thursday, moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front, where PWAT values are progged to be in excess of 1.8 inches. This supports that any given shower or storm will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As of now, the majority of our forecast area is highlighted in an MARGINAL risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. In terms of the severe weather threat, ML CAPES are expected to reach at least 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values around 30 kt. Given better frontal forcing, there looks to be at least another opportunity for severe weather. As of now, SPC has our entire area highlighted in just a general thunder risk, however some of the MLP guidance indicate higher probabilities especially in terms of damaging winds. It is also worth noting that Friday will be quite sticky outside with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. This will result in heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. We may get close to Heat Advisory criteria in some spots, but basis the current forecast, heat indicies are expected to remain just below advisory criteria. There remains a vast amount of uncertainty with how Saturday will pan out as guidance continues to struggle with how quickly the cold front clears the area. Some guidance slows the progression of the front, keeping more in the way of showers around on Saturday, whereas others show a faster progression, yielding mainly dry weather. As mentioned by the previous shift, opted to stay very close to NBM PoPs for this period, which keeps 10-30% PoPs north, with 30-60% PoPs mainly across south Jersey and the Delmarva. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s. By Sunday and into early next week, guidance is showing an expansive upper level ridge setting up over the northern High Plains. This will yield dry weather and mainly clear skies across the Mid- Atlantic. Temperatures will be around normal for Sunday and Monday, but will swing back above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...VFR. S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence. Tonight...VFR initially. MVFR or lower CIGs in stratus developing by or after 09Z. Light S to nearly calm winds. Moderate confidence. Thursday through Thursday night...Any sub-VFR CIGs become VFR by or after 15Z. SHRA/TSRA develop after 18Z over western terminals and taper off over eastern terminals by 02Z Friday. Sub-VFR conds in the heaviest SHRA/TSRA, and then sub-VFR conds in BR and/or stratus late Thursday night. Moderate confidence overall. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR with periods of sub-VFR possible. A chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Saturday though Saturday night...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of sub-VFR conditions. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday through Monday...VFR. No significant weather expected. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight through Thursday night. South to southwest winds around 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Thursday afternoon, becoming W 5 to 10 kt Thursday night. Seas 2 to 3 feet. VSBY restrictions in fog possible tonight, then again Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain and gusty winds will impact the waters late Thursday afternoon and evening. Outlook... Friday through Monday...No marine headlines are expected at this time. Winds will largely remain between 5-15 kt through Sunday, with winds up to 20 kt possible on Monday. Seas around 2-4 feet. A chance for showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening through Saturday, with fair weather returning for Sunday and Monday. Rip Currents... For Thursday, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomes more southeasterly. This combination gives a MODERATErisk for the northern NJ beaches, with a LOW risk further south. For Friday, winds turn southwesterly, and the swell weakens. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/MPS AVIATION...DeSilva/MPS MARINE...DeSilva/MPS/RCM  283 FXUS65 KPSR 082005 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 105 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures will continue this week resulting in areas of major Heat Risk and Extreme Heat Warnings through Thursday across lower desert locations. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue over higher terrain areas of eastern Arizona today and to a lesser extent Thursday and Friday. - The weather pattern will become very favorable for moisture import and more widespread thunderstorm activity by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... Elongated subtropical ridging in a retrogressive phase continues to be the dominant feature across the SW Conus with twin 596dm H5 anti- cyclone centers over NE Arizona and just off the southern California coast respectively. This retrogression will persist the next 48 hours as shortwave energy and westerly jet energy break over the ridge into the Great Basin. This evolution will also act to dampen midtropospheric heights with H5 levels falling closer to 592-594dm by Friday before the high pressure center builds back northeast behind the departing northern stream shortwave. Despite these subtle shifts in positioning and intensity, confidence is excellent that temperatures 5F-10F above normal will be common across the region the next several days with today and Thursday the hottest days. With areas of major HeatRisk persisting, Extreme Heat Warnings continue through Thursday, and may need a small expansion in future forecasts across parts of SE California Friday juxtaposed with the core of the high pressure center. Objective analysis indicates a marked increase in moisture across much of south-central Arizona since yesterday with 7-9 g/kg low level mixing ratios enveloping most of the Arizona CWA with total column PWATs in excess of 1.00". Farther south closer to the international border, mixing ratios 10-11 g/kg, H8 dewpoints greater than 10C, and PWATS near 1.50" were analyzed, though this more thermodynamically favorable airmass will only be transported north with aid of strong outflow boundaries. With better instability in place and very favorable stretching and divergence aloft, mountain storms over Gila County should be more robust this afternoon with DCAPE better than 1500 J/kg promoting strong outflow boundaries. Additional outflows from convection over southern Arizona may also surge north into the forecast area this evening importing additional moisture to the area. While colliding outflow boundaries would be beneficial for new thunderstorm development over lower elevations, forecast soundings and HREF output are not particularly bullish on this outcome, and have maintained POPs under 10% (though not impossible for an isolated storm to erupt this evening given the otherwise excellent synoptic setup). Thunderstorm coverage and impacts will decrease Thursday and Friday as the aforementioned upper jet progressing through the Great Basin imparts greater subsidence and midlevel warming into the CWA while shifting the better synoptics towards the international border. Isolated storms are still possible over mountains of eastern Arizona (and certainly into southern Arizona), however despite near steady state moisture profiles, stronger inhibition over lower elevations and lack of effective boundaries should preclude any notable storm chances. However, there is convincing evidence from model output that a large convective complex over northern Sonora Friday evening will send a pool of greater theta-e into central Arizona with mixing ratios above 10 g/kg and PWATs near 1.50" setting the stage for a more convectively active period of the monsoon over the weekend and next week. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... The weather pattern will undergo a noticeable shift through the weekend as the high pressure ridge quickly tracks northeastward with the center reaching Utah Saturday. The ridge is then forecast to expand, strengthen, and become the main driver of strong moisture advection back into the Desert Southwest next week. As the high center finally shifts to our north into Saturday, it should first open up eastern and southern Arizona to an easterly moisture fetch. Moisture is still likely to be fairly limited on Saturday with afternoon convection currently favored more across southeast Arizona, but once the steering flow shifts out of the east moisture advection and storm chances are expected to spread westward through the rest of Arizona starting Sunday. Although forecast uncertainty remains fairly high going into next week, ensembles generally agree we will enter a period of active monsoon weather. The subtropical high is favored to stay positioned over the Northern Plains into the Central Rockies for much of next week which will allow for fairly persistent moist easterly flow into the Desert Southwest. Ensemble member forecast PWATs show a wide spread, but also a meaningful average increase likely pushing past 1.3-1.4" starting Sunday. Forecast PoPs increase into a 20-40% range starting Sunday and generally stay there through the first half of next week. Any notable easterly waves moving through the flow will surely help drive our convective potential, but pinpointing those this far out is a dubious proposition. Outside of the expected increase in monsoon storm activity, temperatures should slip further toward seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Breezy outflow winds during the evening will be the main aviation concern during the TAF period. Best timing to see a sudden switch out of the E/SE from one of these boundaries looks to be between 02- 04Z, with gusts 20-25 kt in accompaniment. In the meantime, W'rly winds will prevail through the afternoon, with typical gusts in the mid-teens to around 20 kt. The E'rly turn mentioned above with the evening outflow will stick through Thursday morning. Other than distant convective CU over eastern Arizona, skies around the terminals will be mostly clear. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours. Winds at KIPL will generally be out of the SE, with perhaps a very brief switch out of the SW this evening. At BLH, familiar diurnal trends will prevail as winds swing between SSE and SW, with gusts this afternoon around 20-25 kt. Periods of VRB conditions may also be observed during the nighttime hours, especially at KIPL. Clear skies will be common across the region through Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds with isolated lightning over the far eastern districts the next few afternoons will be the main fire weather concern. Outside of any potential outflows, winds should favor light and diurnal trends with typical afternoon breeziness around 20 mph. Afternoon RH values between 10-15% will be common across the region. Overnight recoveries will offer only limited to modest relief as MaxRH values range generally between 20- 45%. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal through the middle of the week, with the lowest elevations reaching between 110- 115 degrees. A decrease in monsoon activity is likely late week, before picking up again and becoming more widespread by early next week. Moisture levels and humidities should also improve considerably by early next week, alleviating much of the fire weather concerns. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PMMST Thursday for AZZ530>534- 536>551-553>555-559-560-562. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ562-564>570. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman  413 FXUS66 KMFR 082007 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 107 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Typical summer weather for the remainder of the week: seasonable temperatures and humidities, gusty afternoon winds. * Pattern amplifies Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-30 mph) Friday- Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring heightened fire weather concerns (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * Thunderstorm pattern early next week. Best chances east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. DISCUSSION...Skies are clear across the area today, except for a few residual marine layer clouds along the coast, and some developing cumulus fields beginning to pop up over the higher terrain of the Cascades and East Side. Westerly flow will prevail today into Thursday under a mostly zonal flow pattern with flat high pressure to the south and a broad trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more stable air mass with thunderstorm potential remaining well east of the area. A stray shower (5% chance) can't be ruled out from the cumulus buildups today, but chances are very low. A dry front will pass through the region today. This will bring another day of enhanced afternoon breezes as well as a general cooling trend in afternoon temperatures today that will persist into the weekend. Instead of temperatures being 8 to 10 degrees above normal like recent days, high temperatures through the weekend will hover within a few degrees of normal, equating to low 90s West/upper 80s East. With this general cool down, we'll see an uptick in afternoon humidities, so despite the enhanced afternoon winds, fire weather concerns will be somewhat mitigated by the slightly cooler temperatures. The pattern transitions on Friday with high pressure to the south moving eastward into the Great Basin region, then amplifying on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward Friday into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly again and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tighter gradients. This pattern will bring a round of strong, gusty winds to the region Friday and Saturday when gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 30 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions could be possible east of the Cascades Friday and Saturday, most widespread on Saturday. See the fire discussion below for more information. Low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, and this will ease winds some compared to Saturday, but conditions will still be quite breezy. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough. Daytime humidities will trend slightly upward and the flow will turn more southerly heading into the early part of next week. This pattern will bear watching for thunderstorm potential as south to southwesterly flow could push some monsoonal moisture into the region. While this is still 5 to 7 days out and plenty of time for details to change between now and then, it currently looks like we'll skate by on Sunday without any convective activity. Monday through Wednesday, however, there could be enough moisture and instability in the region for thunderstorm activity. Given that the region is on the western periphery of that strong high pressure, it currently looks like the best chances would be across eastern areas, though it's worth noting that current guidance shows enough moisture across the West Side for thunderstorm development potentially on Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates as models hone in on additional details. && .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... VFR conditions are expected throughout the valid TAF period with the one caveat along/near the coast. There will be a deck of low clouds over KOTH; however, at this time these should remain FEW/SCT which would not lead to any categorical changes. Will need to watch conditions overnight in case the marine layer is thick enough to produce a BKN/OVC layer. Otherwise, expecting diurnal breezes today/tonight. -Guerrero && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, July 8, 2026...The latest models have trended towards a stronger thermal trough than previously expected. Now, gusty winds and steep wind-driven seas are expected to spread to all of the southern Oregon waters by this evening, and very steep seas will develop south of Gold Beach. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but could strengthen again late weekend with gusty north winds and steep seas. && .FIRE WEATHER (Updated at 100 PM Wednesday, July 8th)... This week will be noted by warm seasonable temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy afternoon wind speeds. This will ultimately result in elevated fire weather conditions starting tomorrow (Thurs). The areas of concern for tomorrow are both the Rogue and Illinois valleys, northern California, and eastside areas. This threat will further increase to near critical or critical fire weather conditions by Friday for eastside areas (Modoc, Klamath, and Lake counties). The threat of critical fire weather conditions will linger through the weekend. Saturday is currently the higher potential for critical fire weather conditions as well as the larger extent of areas with low RH and enhanced breezes, and these areas include eastside areas for both Oregon and northern California (Klamath, Lake, eastern Siskiyou, and Modoc counties). Saturday has lower RH values through the afternoon compared to Friday, but both days will be breezy with gusts around 30-35 mph (potentially 40mph in the windier places). Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lesser end of the spectrum. Regardless, Friday through Sunday will likely experience elevated to critical fire weather conditions with Red Flag Warnings likely developing through this stretch. In the extended forecast, early to middle of next week, we are seeing a signal for thunderstorms with increasing confidence over the last 24 hours. Monsoonal moisture will increase through this stretch, so storms may be on the wetter side; however, lightning over dry fuels will be a concern given our continued stretch of warm and dry weather. At this time, Wednesday has the higher potential for abundant lightning, but we could see thunderstorm activity Monday through Wednesday. Models are trying to develop a tropical storm off the coast of Baja California this weekend which could increase the monsoonal moisture pattern into the forecast area early to middle of next week. -Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  913 FXUS64 KJAN 082012 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 312 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels (limited to elevated) of heat will return Thursday and persist into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This afternoon through tonight: As was the case yesterday, we're seeing most of the deep convection focused outside of our forecast area this afternoon. A few storms could manage to move in or develop over the area as we go through the evening, but coverage should stay fairly sparse by July standards. Thursday into the weekend: Rain chances will diminish for Thu- Fri and remain relatively low for this time of the year as the subtropical ridge rebuilds over the forecast area. Accompanying the building ridge will be an increasing heat danger risk with H850 temps approach 21 deg C and low level flow developing a more westerly component. We will continue to message this threat with a heat danger graphic and coordinate with neighboring forecast areas concerning any heat advisory issuances that may become necessary. Early to mid next week: Global models have a had a strong signal for a shortwave trough rotating around the ridge and sending a boundary toward our area in the Mon-Tue time frame, and this could support a significant round or two of convective rainfall. Along with this, the heat will diminish to below dangerous levels. For next Wednesday, a typical mid summer regime with convective rainfall focused mainly over southern portions of the area should exist. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR flight conditions with southwest winds between 5-8 kts will prevail through the period. Variable winds are expected to shift to the south after 00Z Thursday. /OAJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 93 74 93 / 10 30 10 10 Meridian 73 93 74 94 / 20 30 0 10 Vicksburg 75 93 76 93 / 10 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 75 94 75 94 / 10 20 0 40 Natchez 75 94 75 94 / 10 10 0 10 Greenville 74 94 76 94 / 20 10 0 0 Greenwood 74 94 75 94 / 30 40 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/OAJ  005 FXUS65 KFGZ 082036 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 136 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue over portions of eastern and central Arizona today Expect less activity Thursday and Friday, then Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up this weekend and into next week. Dangerous heat is also expected through the period for portions of Northern AZ, including Glen and Marble Canyons and the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon. && .DISCUSSION...The ridge that has been driving the influx of moisture into northern AZ has flattened and is retrograding to the west. This will begin to introduce a drier westerly flow aloft, however plenty of moisture still lingers across the area. Today remains a fairly similar setup to yesterday, with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms currently firing over eastern AZ. Storms intensity is just a little higher than previous days, though the primary hazards from storms remain gusty outflow winds, lightning, and small hail. Localized downpours will also lead to a low risk for flash flooding over sensitive areas (burn scars). By Thursday and Friday, the flattened ridge establishes to our west. This will push most of the convective activity to our south under drier northwest flow, though some storms will likely hang around the White Mountains each day. By the weekend, the ridge is forecast to strengthen and rapidly shift to our northeast. This would be a favorable flow pattern for the North American Monsoon. The ensemble mean PW approaches the 90th percentile for this time of year by Monday. The current forecast calls for precipitation chances ramping up on Sunday-Monday with the best coverage of storms along/south of the Mogollon Rim. Stay tuned for further updates on this period! Heat will also be a concern through the week with above normal July temperatures forecasted each day. The Extreme Heat Warning for the Grand Canyon below 4000 ft has been extended through Sunday, with temperatures in excess of 110 degrees expected each day at Phantom Ranch. An Extreme Heat Warning has also been issued for Marble and Glen Canyons on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures forecasted to reach moderate-extreme HeatRisk. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 08/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...Primarily VFR conditions. Brief MVFR possible in SCT SHRA/TSRA, primarily over southern Apache and Navajo counties during the afternoon. Some ISOLD cells may push as far west as a KFLG/KPAN line by late afternoon. Winds are SW 10-20 kts through 03Z, becoming light and VRB overnight. OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/18Z through Saturday 11/18Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD storms possible INVOF the White Mtns each afternoon. Winds are SW-W 10-20 kts each day, light and VRB or terrain during the overnight periods. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Hot and mainly dry conditions, aside from isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon in the White Mountains. Winds west/southwest 10-20 mph each day. Saturday through Monday...Hot, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Wetting rains possible in any stronger storm. Winds light and variable Saturday, becoming south/southeast 5- 15 mph on Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Saturday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  274 FXPQ50 PGUM 082043 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU Issued by National Weather Service Honolulu HI 643 AM ChST Thu Jul 9 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Infrared satellite imagery reveals mostly cloudy skies over the Marianas. Tanapag buoy shows combined seas around 10 ft. && .Discussion... Upper ridging in the wake of STY Bavi are supporting subtle pressure rises over the Marianas. Attendant surface ridging will support light to variable winds and inhibit deep convection through Saturday. Guidance remains in strong agreement that a tropical disturbance will over or immediately south of the Marianas during the latter half of the weekend. Some development of this feature is possible but remains uncertain at this time. In any case, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be prevalent through the middle of next week. && .Marine... STY Bavi and its associated monsoon trough maintain an elevated west swell and a secondary southwest swell resulting in seas hazardous to small craft. Hazardous surf also continues along west and south facing reefs. As the system moves away, swells and surf will gradually diminish. A high risk of rip currents exists along north, south, and west facing reefs at least through Friday afternoon. && .Tropical Systems... Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) is located over the Philippine Sea near 18N131E, or roughly 750 miles northwest of Yap, and 750 miles north of Palau. Bavi continues to move west-northwest at around 12 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 145 mph. Bavi is expected to make a turn toward the northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed through today, potentially exiting the region west of 130E by this afternoon. In the meantime, the broad, surging monsoon pattern feeding into Bavi will continue to produce hazardous seas and surf across far Western Micronesia. A weak, disorganized tropical disturbance is located near Kosrae at roughly 4N160E, Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Invest 97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across the area with little organization. Generally more showers are located within the convergent northeast flank, across the western Marshall Islands, and Pohnpei and Kosrae States. 97W is still rated "sub-low" by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, meaning it is not expected to develop over the next several days, but will continue to be monitored for potential development. Pulses of shower and isolated thunderstorm development are expected to continue as it drifts westward over the next day or so. For more information on Super Typhoon Bavi, please refer to the Public Advisory issued by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW. && .Eastern Micronesia... Wet and unsettled weather will continue at Pohnpei through today with high-end scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms persisting. A weak circulation, Invest 97W, located south of Kosrae is supporting isolated to scattered showers in the Kosrae to Pohnpei corridor. Ensemble guidance suggests that Invest 97W will lift slowly west-northwest over the coming days with little to no development expected. Shower chances will top out around low- end scattered at Majuro into Friday with shower coverage then expected to increase throughout Friday and into the weekend. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will continue through the rest of week. Seas consist of a west-northwest swell and a small, southeast swell at Pohnpei and Kosrae and an east swell, a small, south swell, and a small, west swell at Majuro. Gentle to moderate winds are expected through the rest of the week at Kosrae and Pohnpei with light to gentle winds expected at Majuro. Winds arecurrently transitioning to southerly over Kosrae today and will reach Pohnpei by Friday morning as Invest 97W lifts to the west-northwest. Periods of fresh south winds will be possible for both islands and their nearshore waters. && .Western Micronesia... Latest satellite imagery indicates organized convection gradually transitioning west of the forecast area as weak surface ridging builds southward over the area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms prevail within the rain bands to the north and northwest of Yap, and to the northwest of Palau. Limited shower activity in the vicinity of Chuuk where aforementioned surface ridging has already arrived. Scattered showers will continue for Yap and Palau through at least Friday as the unsettled monsoon pattern overhead gradually moves away. Late this weekend into early next week, models highlight an unsettled pattern developing across much of the region that is in part associated with a developing tropical disturbance over eastern Micronesia, Invest 97W. Periods of numerous locally heavy showers will be possible for Yap, Palau, and Chuuk starting around Sunday night. Palau and Yap remain within the surging monsoon flow to the south of Super Typhoon Bavi (09W). The elevated swells are also generating hazardous seas to the Small Craft Advisory threshold and advisory level surf along north and west facing reefs && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas: JVC Tropical Systems: JVC Eastern Micronesia: JVC Western Micronesia: JVC  268 FXUS66 KOTX 082042 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 142 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical Fire Weather: Red Flag Warnings in effect Wednesday due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. - Elevated fire weather conditions through the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Critical fire weather conditions will continue through Wednesday evening for central and eastern Washington. Weather will remain and dry through the week with breezy afternoon winds. This will keep fire weather conditions elevated through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday night through Sunday: A cold front traversing the Inland Northwest is resulting in dry and breezy conditions this afternoon and evening. Critical fire weather conditions will continue across much of central and eastern Washington through the evening. Winds will gradually weaken tonight across most areas, though breezy conditions will persist in the lee of the Cascades. Through early Friday, the region will remain under a zonal flow aloft, situated south of an upper- level trough over western Canada. Diurnal marine pushes into western Washington will tighten the cross- Cascade pressure gradient daily, driving enhanced evening winds through the Cascade gaps. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions will persist for the next couple of days, particularly through the Cascade gaps of the Cascades, due to the combination of low relative humidity and breezy winds. By late Friday, upper-level flow shifts southwesterly as a closed low migrates southeastward along the British Columbia coast and a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest. This pattern will keep temperatures warm across the Inland Northwest under the subtle influence of the ridge. On Saturday, the upper-level low along the BC coast low is projected to track northeastward, with winds increasing aloft, and generating more widespread breezy conditions during the afternoon and evening. This will bring continued elevated fire weather concerns, with the highest confidence (60-90% probability) for sustained winds exceeding 15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 20% focused in the Okanogan Valley. Monday through Thursday: Uncertainty in the synoptic pattern increases significantly next week with respect to additional systems coming off the Pacific and how far north the upper-level ridge will amplify into the Inland Northwest. If the arrival of the next system is as early as Monday night, this will stunt amplification into the INW, with temperatures remaining similar to the weekend and a risk of thunderstorms early in the week. If the Pacific systems are delayed until the Wednesday or Thursday timeframe, this would allow the upper-level ridge to build into the INW, with temperatures warming significantly and a risk for thunderstorms by mid-week. During the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe, there is a 7 to 11 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles for maximum temperatures in the NBM, highlighting this uncertainty. /vmt && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: A cold front moving through the Inland Northwest will bring dry and gusty winds across the region today. Flight conditions are expected to remain VFR today. Winds have begun to increase with southwesterly to westerly gusts generally between 20 to 25 knots. The windiest location will be in the lee of the Cascades, particularly at KEAT where gusts 28 to 32 knots are expected this afternoon into the early evening. Winds will remain breezy at KEAT through the night with winds at KMWH weakening around 06Z. Winds will relax across other TAF sites around 01-03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 56 86 57 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 57 84 57 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 51 82 51 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 60 91 59 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 53 87 54 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 56 84 55 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 56 82 55 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 55 90 56 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 61 88 62 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 58 91 59 89 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$  340 FXUS65 KGJT 082044 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 244 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Terrain based showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon with wetting rains unlikely. - Showers will shift northward on Thursday with areas north of highway 50 favored. - Localized critical fire weather conditions favor southeast UT and southwest CO Thursday afternoon. - Excessive heat watch has been issued for Saturday and Sunday afternoon for near record temperatures in the lower valleys of eastern Utah and western Colorado. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Widespread terrain based showers and thunderstorms have developed across the region this afternoon. This morning's Grand Junction sounding would have you believe this to be a robust summer thunderstorm event. Unfortunately, the stingy moisture profile we've been working with this week is still robbing much of this mid level moisture. Observations from storms in southwest Colorado show wetting rains have actually made it to the surface in a few spots. Elsewhere, much lighter values are turning up. Showers and storms will taper towards sunset. A weak upper level disturbance working across the Great Basin beneath a weak jet streak could keep some shower activity alive into late tonight. As these showers decay, some gusty outflow winds are likely to bounce around some valleys. This could fan some wildfires too. Thursday, that upper level disturbance will reside overhead northeast UT and northwest CO. As a result, afternoon convection will favor the northern half of our CWA down to about highway 50, as drier air invades the column around the Four Corners. With some wetting rains in southwest CO this afternoon, I would expect a couple of showers to get a start on the south shoulders of the San Juans Thursday, despite model hesitancy down there. Broad high pressure begins to lift into the region from the south on Friday. Some high res guidance hints at an isolated shower or two on the northern mountains, but nothing southward. This will begin a buildup of excessively high temperatures this weekend beneath stubborn high pressure parked over the West. An Excessive Heat Watch was issued for all of our lower valleys on Saturday and Sunday to account for widespread triple digit temperatures. Some of the lower desert valleys will approach 108 degrees by Sunday. Critical fire weather begins to taper Thursday, favoring the Four Corners. Lighter winds beneath the high Friday and beyond will further suppress fire weather conditions. Models begin to hint at some moisture working beneath the high onto the San Juans Sunday. Eyes will continue to focus southward to see if any hope for additional moisture emerges Monday and beyond. Moisture starved and wildfire weary, any sign of rainfall will be greeted with hope on the West Slope this year. For now it looks like those triple digit temperatures will continue to bake the lower valleys next week, unless we get some afternoon showers and thunderstorms to cool things off. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1138 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Lingering moisture will allow for widely scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening hours. The main threat will continue to be gusty outflow winds in the 35 to 50 mph range if the storm is near an airfield. Due to the limited coverage confidence is low in timing and placement but did place PROB30 in some of the TAFs. Otherwise winds will be fairly light under prevailing VFR conditions. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ001-002-005>008-011-014-020>023. UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ022-024-027-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTB AVIATION...TGJT  329 FXUS66 KLOX 082044 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 144 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...08/143 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge over the region. Temperatures will decrease slightly over the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Monsoonal showers or thunderstorms will be possible starting Saturday. Temperatures will begin to build once again on Tuesday, potentially reaching Major HeatRisk levels, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...08/131 PM. An upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region through Friday, before starting to move NE on Saturday. 500 mb heights will range from 594 to 596 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal for this time of year. There will be onshore flow to the east strongest in the afternoon, but a few mb weaker than it was earlier this week. There will be a mb or two of offshore flow from the north in the mornings turning weakly onshore to the north in the afternoons. High temperatures continue to be the main concern through the forecast period. With rising 500mb heights through Thursday, lack of a solid marine layer, and only weak to moderate onshore flow in the afternoon, conditions will be warmer than normal for this time of year. High temperatures through Thursday will range 92-103 across the valleys and 75-92 across the coasts/inland coasts. These temperatures are 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. On Friday and over the weekend, 500 mb heights will decrease with a slight increase in onshore flow, leading to a few degrees of cooling. However, temperatures will remain above normal for the time of year. However, temperatures will start to increase again next week, even warmer than this week. Thus, The Heat Advisory for all the valleys, mountains, and Los Angeles Inland Coast has been extended through Tuesday morning (please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all details). Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening and Thursday evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County, and a Wind Advisory is in effect late this afternoon into early Thursday morning. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...08/139 PM. As previously mentioned, the upper level high pressure will shift NE late Friday through Sunday, and eventually reach the Dakotas. This northeastward shift will open the door for SE flow into Southern California. Meanwhile, at the surface, moderate to strong onshore flow will continue both to the north and east. With the SE flow, monsoonal moisture will move into the region Sunday night, lasting through basically all of the next week. While the moisture won't reach the region until Sunday night, there is still instability that will bring a 10-20% chance of dry thunderstorms on Sunday. However, once the moisture moves in Sunday night, PWATs will raise to 1-1.5 inches across most of the region (even up to Paso Robles) through at least Tuesday, bringing a 10-20% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to Southern California. As for the heat, another warming trend will start up Tuesday through Thursday, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk, and a 30% chance of Major HeatRisk to most of the region during those days. Thus, an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for the majority of the region, with temperatures of 90-112 degrees possible away from the coast. Additionally, the monsoonal moisture will add to the discomfort of the heat. && .AVIATION...08/1711Z. At 1606z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1400 ft deep with a temperature of 22 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 25 percent chc of IFR conds redeveloping this evening around 5-7z and lasting through 16Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z. Low confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLAX, KPRB (40 percent chc of IFR cigs 10Z-17Z) and KLGB (40 percent chc of no cigs) KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of OVC008 conds 12Z-17Z). Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...08/104 PM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Friday morning across the Outer Waters. There is a 50-70% chance of Gale Force winds this afternoon and evening into Friday morning. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid- week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend. SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel greatest during the afternoon and evening hours through at least Thursday. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoons/evenings through Thursday morning. For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through tonight. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...08/104 PM. A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through next week. With the swell, the potential for larger surf and greater risk for rip currents will continue. High tides are expected to increase this weekend going into next week with Monday expected to be the highest tide of 7.0 to 7.6 ft above MLLW. There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding next week with the high tides and south swell. One thing that will need to be watched into next week will be the potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential tropical development. Thunderstorms are also possible starting Sunday and going through next week with a 10-20% chance. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory now in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/KL AVIATION...SF MARINE...RM/Lund/CC/SF BEACHES...SF SYNOPSIS...RM/KL weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox