726 FXUS65 KSLC 082124 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 323 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... - High based convection will again develop this afternoon, primarily over northern portions of the forecast area. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong outflow winds to 60 mph. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. Critical fire weather conditions will continue Thursday over southern Utah. - A notable heat wave will develop over the weekend with high temperatures challenging daily and monthly records Saturday and Sunday. Most valleys and some mountain valleys have a greater than 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red (major) range, bringing an increased chance of heat related illnesses. - Confidence is increasing the monsoonal moisture will move into the area by the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... High pressure is centered roughly near the Utah/Colorado border late this morning, putting Utah and southwest Wyoning under a breezy west to southwest flow aloft. High based moisture remains in place over northern Utah, while drier air advects in from the southwest. High temperatures will stay on the mild side with maxes running up to 5F above seasonal normals. A weak shortwave is expected to move through the ridge and across northern portions of the forecast area late this afternoon into the evening, with the feature looking a bit better defined than the one that moved through yesterday. Overall, seeing less in the way of shear compared to yesterday, but a bit more CAPE, up to 500 J/kg most likely. Thus, already starting to see showers and thunderstorms developing, currently focused over northwest Utah, with areal coverage and extent both increase late this afternoon into the evening. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong and gusty outflow winds, with the possibility of at least isolated severe gusts later today. The ridge axis is expected to redevelop off the southern California coast on Thursday, bringing a more westerly component to the flow and allowing additional drier air to make its way into the area, particularly over southern Utah. With some moisture continuing to linger and another shortwave on track to move through during the afternoon, anticipate the development of at least a few showers and thunderstorms, though coverage will likely be a bit less than what is anticipated for today. As the airmass continues to dry and strong high pressure builds substantially over the western United States, confidence is high in temperatures across Utah and southwest Wyoming shooting up to record challenging levels for Saturday and Sunday. Guidance continues to show the center of the ridge over Utah on Saturday and just east of the area on Sunday. Guidance has, if anything, gone up with regard to the forecast compared to yesterday, with the majority of valleys and mountain valleys showing at least a 60 percent chance of red (major) HeatRisk for both Saturday and Sunday. It seems all but certain that daily temperature records will be broken, with some monthly and (in the case of the Cache Valley) all time records forecast to be broken. Given this and many valley low temperatures staying in the 70s overnight, this will predictably bring a quite increased chance of heat related illnesses over the weekend. Given the high confidence in the forecast, have gone ahead and issued an Extreme Heat Watch for all of those areas with at least a 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red, which includes just about all valleys (lower Washington county excluded) and many mountain valleys. As the forecast comes in clearer focus over the next couple of days, upcoming shifts will make decisions about advisories and warnings. With southerly flow expected to increase over the area for the early and middle part of the upcoming week, models continue to indicate a high likelihood of monsoonal moisture returning to the area, bringing temperatures down and rain chances up. While this would decrease the fire danger, it brings an increased potential for flash flooding, particularly for southern Utah. && .AVIATION, Issued 153 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... KSLC...There is low confidence in wind direction this afternoon and especially this evening given isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area. The main lightning threat will be limited to before 00z, however gusty outflow winds will remain a major question through 08z or so. Outside of any localized outflow winds, northwesterlies should prevail through the afternoon, becoming reinforced around ~02-04z with gusts to 20-30kts as broader outflow from storms over northwest Utah reach KSLC. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty outflow winds will continue to develop this afternoon primarily across northern Utah and portions of eastern Utah. The main lightning threat will be mostly during the afternoon hours, though outflow winds will remain a threat through 08z or so across the north. Thus, confidence is low in wind direction for the northern TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER...The airmass has trended drier today under a west- southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts west off the northern Baja coast. Meanwhile, across northern Utah,lingering moisture and instability has brought high-based showers and thunderstorms that will continue into the evening, with isolated dry lightning and gusty outflow winds being the main threat. Enhanced winds combined with the low humidities have brought critical fire weather conditions across portions of central and southern Utah today. The drying trend will continue across the area through the rest of the week, with humidities continuing to trend downward across the area and overnight recoveries become increasingly poor especially across central and southern Utah. Convection will become increasingly isolated during this time as well. Breezy conditions are expected to persist into Thursday and perhaps Friday as relative humidities continue to decrease. For now, have extended the Red Flag Warning for southern Utah into Thursday, and will keep an eye on trends for Friday. As high pressure builds back into the area for the weekend into the beginning of next week, dry and very hot conditions can be expected. Temperatures are very likely to reach at least 100 degrees in most valleys over the weekend, while relative humidities in the single digits will be common. However, the pattern still looks favorable for moisture to increase into the area beginning early next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ101>108-114>116-118>122-128>131. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-493-497. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ495-496-498. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Cunningham FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  898 FXUS66 KEKA 082127 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 227 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 KEY MESSAGES * Persistent Stratus: Seasonably cool conditions along the immediate coast will alternate with typical night and morning low clouds and fog. * Building Interior Heat: A robust ridge of high pressure will maximize temperature anomalies across all inland valleys, including Lake, Trinity, and interior Mendocino counties, starting late this week. .SYNOPSIS...Diurnal, shallow coastal stratus is anticipated for coastal and near coastal areas with better chances for scattering or clearing each afternoon through the end of the week. Inland areas will remain dry and hot under a building upper-level ridge. && .DISCUSSION...The fringes of an upper level trough centered over British Columbia and an upper level ridge over the Southwest US are interacting with each other over Northwest California. Last night and this morning, the upper level low brought more zonal flow to the region which aided in deepening coastal stratus and then led to clearing/scattering stratus this afternoon for most coastal areas due to atmospheric mixing. Inland areas will experience heating as the upper ridge strengthens and moves westward late this week and into the weekend. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will become widespread across the interior valleys of Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake counties by Thursday. Subsidence will compress the marine layer, keeping it shallow and confined to the coast and immediate valleys. Late this weekend and into next week, the placement of the upper ridge over the Southwest will determine the path of monsoonal moisture over the western US. Next week has the potential to heat up and dry out more than the end of this week, as well. The monsoonal moisture could cause instability in the atmosphere, mainly over northeastern Trinity County early next week. As of now, chances for isolated thunderstorms look low, but this pattern will be monitored for any potential impacts to Northwest California. /JLW && .AVIATION...Chances for longer periods of cleared or scattered low clouds are expected to continue this afternoon and evening for coastal terminals. As high pressure becomes more dominant in the region late this week, coastal stratus is expected to be less widespread and more shallow. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to redevelop for terminals in the Humboldt Bay area and nearshore areas of the Eel River Valley. Along the Del Norte Coast, coastal stratus development could be staved off as northerly winds increase closer to shore. VFR conditions are forecast for inland terminals throughout the TAF period. /JLW && .MARINE...The pressure gradient between the offshore lower level high and the inland thermal low is tightening across the waters. Winds south of Cape Mendocino are sustained at 20 to 25 knots, producing steep, wind-driven seas in the southern marine zones. A Gale Watch has been hoisted for the southern outer waters for Thursday as widespread frequent gusts over 34 knots seems to be increasingly likely. In the northern outer waters, wind speeds are modeled to increase to 20 to 25 knots with wave heights reaching 9 feet at a short 8- second dominant period late tonight. Throughout the northern marine zones, steep seas will create hazardous conditions for small craft. As a result, small craft advisories have been added for the northern marine zones, as well, for Thursday and Friday. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ415-450. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT Friday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475. Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  170 FXUS65 KLKN 082131 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 231 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to slowly diminish in coverage from west to east across Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon. Coverage Thursday is expected to be near the Utah border * Temperatures will remain above seasonal values this week * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon from Friday through Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Radar has shown several strong to severe thunderstorms moving across portions of northeast Elko county this afternoon. Moisture continues to remain highest in this area with precipitable water values of two-thirds to three-quarters of an inch will remain over the area. CAPE values of 400 to 700J/kg along with sufficient 0-3km bulk shear (30-40kt) and 0-3km helicity of 100-200m2/sec2 are promoting severe storms in the area. The intensity is expected to diminish during the early evening hours tonight. Other locales are seeing mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. By tomorrow, drier air will continue migrating east across the area. Kept isolated showers and thunderstorms in far eastern Nevada. Otherwise, most locations will be on the dry side. Highs will be in the mid 90s with overnight lows in the 50s. Friday through early next week. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected during this time frame but temperatures will be warming in response to building heights. The heat is expected to commence on Friday with highs reaching the mid 90s to low 100s, with a few degrees of additional warming on Saturday. Record high temperatures for Elko, Eureka, and Ely may be met during this time. This is leading to minor to moderate HeatRisk impacts across northern and central Nevada with the increasing probability of heat headlines needed for portions of the area through the weekend, including Sunday. Though Sunday could see a degree or two of cooling, the main heat impacts remain. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Afternoon breezes to 20 mph will be possible over the area. Look for additional degrees of cooling Monday and Tuesday as a large and expansive upper ridge dominates the weather across the United States. Models are showing a southerly fetch of moisture, which will increase the chances for thunderstorms over the forecast area early next week. Will need to continue watching for possible fire weather concerns. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The PoP, weather, sky and wind grids were adjusted for the short term forecast due to fire weather concerns. High confidence on the upper ridge strengthening late in the week, with high confidence on HeatRisk for Friday through the weekend. Confidence is low on the timing and coverage of storms for early next week. && .AVIATION... Expect storms on Wednesday across mainly northeast Nevada with KEKO and KENV terminals with VCTS. VFR conditions will persist at all other locations. Winds will be light with gusts to 22KT possible AMD NOT SKED continues for KEKO due to communications issue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity continues across fire weather zones 438/469/470 through this evening. Through the rest of the week temperatures continue to rise increasing HeatRisk by the weekend when afternoon highs across all fire weather zones are expected to climb to triple digits. Elevated fire weather conditions due to winds and low relative humidity are a possibility across northern and portions of central Nevada Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be hot with minimum relative humidity values between 4 and 8%. This will need to be watch for the potential of headline fire products. Lastly, models are showing a southerly fetch of moisture, which will increase the chances for thunderstorms over the forecast area early next week. Will need to continue watching for possible fire weather concerns. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86  481 FXUS66 KMTR 082135 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 235 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Warmer weather continues through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) Seasonally cool to seasonal temperatures continue through the remainder of today before a warming trend kicks off tomorrow. Upper level high pressure will continue to strengthen over the desert southwest as we head into Thursday. Temperatures are expected to warm by 2-5 degrees across the interior with most locations reaching the mid to upper 80s. Far northern North Bay and East Bay may reach the low to mid 90s with the interior Central Coast reaching the upper 90s to low 100s. If you're looking for cooler weather, coastal areas and the bay shoreline will stay in the 60s to 70s. HeatRisk remains Minor for most of the region with patchy Moderate HeatRisk forecast across the far interior Central Coast. As temperatures start to rise again, make sure to take breaks in the shade and stay hydrated while outdoors. Diurnally breezy winds continue in the afternoon and evening with gusts between 20 to 30 mph possible in favored windy locations (Altamont Pass, Salinas Valley). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) The warming trend continues through the extended forecast period as high pressure remains in place over the desert southwest. Interior high temperatures may fluctuate a degree or two each day but will generally remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. Hot spots in the far North Bay, East Bay, and Interior Central Coast will be in the upper 90s to low 100s. Coastal areas and the bay shoreline warm up slightly but will stay in the 70s (coast) to upper 70s/low 80s (bay shoreline). By late this weekend, the center of the upper level ridge will shift slightly northeastward over the Intermountain West where it will continue to strengthen heading into next week. Temperatures look to warm further early next week with Moderate HeatRisk forecast across portions of the Bay Area and higher elevations. Conditions do not currently meet Heat Advisory criteria but this may be reevaluated as we get closer in time. Thunderstorms remain possible late this weekend into early next week as monsoonal moisture moves into California from the Gulf of California/Baja California. The moisture source remains good with PWATs in excess of 1", about 150-200% or normal for this time of year. The 700-500 mb lapse rates remain around 7 C/km which is decent. The question becomes how much instability (MUCAPE) we will have. Current models show isolated pockets of minimal MUCAPE across our region but this is by no means widespread or a substantial amount. Longer term models can sometimes struggle with instability across our region so we will be able to better assess this parameter as we move into the range of higher resolution/short term models. While we are still expecting little to no precipitation with this moisture surge, the ECMWF is showing the potential for some light rain (< 0.1") along the coast Sunday into Monday. Fire weather concerns remain if thunderstorms are able to develop with storms possible across the Bay Area and Central Coast. It is recommended to stay up to date on the forecast especially as we get into the range of higher resolution models and get a better idea of the overall setup. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Satellite is currently showing stratus clearing from most terminals. Widespread VFR conditions are expected by 19-20Z today, except at HAF where it will remain IFR-MVFR throughout the TAF period. A northwest to west wind flow will persist at sites south of the Golden Gate, meanwhile North Bay terminals experience southwest to southerly winds. Fresh to moderate breezes are forecast between 10- 15 kt across our area. The marine layer returns again this evening after 02-03Z Thursday with more borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings at most terminals. Low to medium confidence (30-40% chance) on whether LVK and SJC will develop MVFR ceilings as it is dependent on if the marine layer deepens beyond 1000 feet. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR ceilings are still hovering around the terminal, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail after 19Z today. Moderate breezes with embedded gusts increase through the afternoon. MVFR ceilings begin to fill in around 05Z Thursday followed by IFR ceilings around 08Z, which persist through 19Z Thursday. Medium confidence on the arrival and scattering of the stratus. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar general pattern to SFO. Winds ease slightly earlier and MVFR/IFR ceilings arrive shortly after SFO. Ceilings are expected to scatter out before SFO Thursday morning as well. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has cleared at MRY and SNS with VFR expected to continue through this afternoon. Guidance is in agreement that stratus will return early this evening (approx. 00- 03Z) and remain through late tomorrow morning. The marine layer will lower to 1200-1000 ft tonight which may result in the marine layer lowering to IFR overnight. LAMP guidance suggests LIFR conditions and reductions in visibility are possible early tomorrow morning but confidence is low to moderate. Breezy onshore winds are expected this afternoon/evening before winds ease overnight. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Northwest winds remain fresh to strong as embedded near gale force gusts increase into the weekend. Wind driven moderate seas (5-8 ft) build to rough (9-11 ft) this evening into the weekend paired with a long period southerly swell. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday and continue into this weekend. This will increase fire weather concerns slightly as fuels rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. Given the combination of potential for dry lightning and dry fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest information. && .BEACHES... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  908 FXUS63 KDDC 082142 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 442 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) severe storms both Tonight and Thursday Night for primarily a damaging straight line wind risk. - Large thunderstorm system late Thursday evening/night may lead to isolated to widely scattered excessive rainfall potential with latest NBM 95th percentile showing some 3"+ amounts (1-in-20 chance at any location) - Hot and dry pattern late weekend into next week, however chance of significant heat wave impacts across southwest Kansas are low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Prolonged thunderstorm chances tonight through early Saturday morning will be the main forecast challenge. The first decent chance will be later on this evening as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) develops across eastern Colorado within increasing moist upslope low level winds. Latest convection-allowing models and ensemble systems (particularly the experimental GSL version of the REFS) have a pretty strong signal of organized strong to severe thunderstorms rolling across mainly far west central and northwest Kansas with some weakening signal after 05Z (Midnight CDT) as storms move east of the U283 corridor. This weakening signal it mainly due to weaker deep layer shear and low level moist inflow later at night. Regardless, at least a small MCS should survive east of U283, generally along the I-70 corridor. Latest NBM 12-hr QPF probs are also not all that high with only a 20-25% chance of 1/4" or more QPF late tonight along the K96 to I-70 corridor. The greater signal for numerous strong/severe thunderstorms continues to be Thursday Night as better kinematic and thermodynamic fields will support a longer-lived, more organized strong to severe MCS. QPF signals are also much higher of a larger area of west central and southwest Kansas with 24-hr (1 PM Thursday to 1 PM Friday CDT) chances of 1/4" in the 50 to 60% range for roughly two-thirds of the DDC NWS forecast area, generally northwest of a Liberal to Pratt line. Same time frame 1"+ probs are showing 25-35% probability scattered about southwest Kansas from the 13Z NBM, and it would not be surprising to see a few spots see two inches of rain just from Thursday Night's event alone with 90th percentile QPF well above two inches in some locations. A third and final round of thunderstorms Friday Night will be possible as well, most likely focused farther south and probably south of our DDC forecast area entirely -- especially if Thursday Night/Friday morning's forecast big MCS event pushes the effective boundary pretty far to the south. Heading into the medium range next week, the large scale pattern will evolve towards a highly anomalous upper level high centered across the central CONUS. Latest Grand Ensemble of the Big 3 global models ECMWF ENS, NCEP GEFS, and Canadian GEPS show a mean 500mb high position forming over the Colorado/Wyoming Rockies moving across the Northern Great Plains through early to mid next week with 50-60% probability of 600 decameter high center. Such an anomalous high that far north would actually put southwest Kansas in a stronger than normal deep easterly flow regime, thus keeping the excessive heat risk farther north through this period. We will likely see daily highs in the lower to mid 90s much of next week with perhaps a slow ramp up toward upper 90s/near 100 by the end of our 7-day forecast period. This pattern would not support much rainfall given the large scale subsidence in vicinity of the upper high. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 442 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR is expected to continue through thisTAF period, with generally good flying weather prevailing. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to remain primarily west of US 83 (GCK-LBL) line through 06z Fri, with limited confidence of impacts on any airport. As such, removed mention of thunder at all TAFs, but left a VCTS/CB mention at GCK around 06z Fri. Otherwise, broken cirrus overnight with light winds. Light winds will continue daylight Thursday, with continued VFR. A much stronger signal for a thunderstorm complex is evident just after this TAF period, 00-12z Fri, when impacts to aviation operations are expected. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Turner  387 FXUS66 KPDT 082151 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 251 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and locally breezy for the next few days. - Elevated fire weather concerns through the end of the week. - Increasing heat around the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Dry westerly flow will be over the region through Thursday. By Friday, the flow becomes more southwesterly, in response to low pressure off the coast of British Columbia and high pressure near the Four Corners. This ridge of high pressure will expand north and eventually west as we move into next week. Diurnally breezy conditions are expected, mainly over the Cascade Gaps, Simcoe Highlands, Kittitas Valley and Columbia Basin and Gorge. Winds gusts will mainly be in the 20 to 30 mph range. NBM probabilities of wind gusts >= 25 mph are greater than 80 percent through Saturday. However, wind gusts >= 39 mph are generally less than 50 percent, with the exception of the Kittitas Valley. As we get into next week, a large area of high pressure over the Great Basin will move northward then eventually westward. Guidance has been very consistent in bringing increasingly hot weather starting around the middle of the week. What guidance has been less consistent about is exactly how hot it gets and how long it will last. Some of that is simply due to the time scale of the forecast. Some of that is due to the position of the ridge and how it sets up. Temperatures close to 100 degrees, if not above 100 degrees look to start around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week in the lower elevations and potentially go up from there. A 40 to 50 percent chance of moderate HeatRisk returning with Major Heat Risk at least in the Columbia Basin and Yakima Valleys is possible as well. If some of the more bullish guidance ends up being correct, there could end up being multiple days of 100 plus temperatures in the lower elevation areas. Stay tuned on this one. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions persist through all sites. No major CIG or VIS issues expected. Only concern will be breezy winds at DLS, RDM, BDN, and YKM. Breezy winds will persist in DLS, with winds decreasing in PDT by 05Z. RDM and BDN will see winds develop to around 15-25 knot gusts from 0820Z to 0905Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Diurnally breezy winds over the next few days in the 20 to 30 mph range (with locally higher areas) combined with RH values will keep elevated fire weather concerns. A red flag warning is in effect for the Kittitas Valley through this evening as winds have been quite gusty there. For Thursday, winds will be marginal, around 30 mph again, with RH values mainly in the teens. The area of focus on shifts to the Columbia Basin and Gorge and will need to see if any headlines become necessary. Breezy winds continue Friday and Saturday, but RH values look to be slightly higher....in the 20s in many locations. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 88 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 90 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 93 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 92 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 91 58 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 82 54 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 86 47 87 48 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 88 53 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 90 50 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 85 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...95 FIRE WEATHER...77