752 FXUS66 KMTR 082200 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 300 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Warmer weather continues through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) Seasonally cool to seasonal temperatures continue through the remainder of today before a warming trend kicks off tomorrow. Upper level high pressure will continue to strengthen over the desert southwest as we head into Thursday. Temperatures are expected to warm by 2-5 degrees across the interior with most locations reaching the mid to upper 80s. Far northern North Bay and East Bay may reach the low to mid 90s with the interior Central Coast reaching the upper 90s to low 100s. If you're looking for cooler weather, coastal areas and the bay shoreline will stay in the 60s to 70s. HeatRisk remains Minor for most of the region with patchy Moderate HeatRisk forecast across the far interior Central Coast. As temperatures start to rise again, make sure to take breaks in the shade and stay hydrated while outdoors. Diurnally breezy winds continue in the afternoon and evening with gusts between 20 to 30 mph possible in favored windy locations (Altamont Pass, Salinas Valley). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) The warming trend continues through the extended forecast period as high pressure remains in place over the desert southwest. Interior high temperatures may fluctuate a degree or two each day but will generally remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. Hot spots in the far North Bay, East Bay, and Interior Central Coast will be in the upper 90s to low 100s. Coastal areas and the bay shoreline warm up slightly but will stay in the 70s (coast) to upper 70s/low 80s (bay shoreline). By late this weekend, the center of the upper level ridge will shift slightly northeastward over the Intermountain West where it will continue to strengthen heading into next week. Temperatures look to warm further early next week with Moderate HeatRisk forecast across portions of the Bay Area and higher elevations. Conditions do not currently meet Heat Advisory criteria but this may be reevaluated as we get closer in time. Thunderstorms remain possible late this weekend into early next week as monsoonal moisture moves into California from the Gulf of California/Baja California. The moisture source remains good with PWATs in excess of 1", about 150-200% or normal for this time of year. The 700-500 mb lapse rates remain around 7 C/km which is decent. The question becomes how much instability (MUCAPE) we will have. Current models show isolated pockets of minimal MUCAPE across our region but this is by no means widespread or a substantial amount. Longer term models can sometimes struggle with instability across our region so we will be able to better assess this parameter as we move into the range of higher resolution/short term models. While we are still expecting little to no precipitation with this moisture surge, the ECMWF is showing the potential for some light rain (< 0.1") along the coast Sunday into Monday. Fire weather concerns remain if thunderstorms are able to develop with storms possible across the Bay Area and Central Coast. It is recommended to stay up to date on the forecast especially aswe get into the range of higher resolution models and get a better idea of the overall setup. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Satellite is currently showing stratus clearing from most terminals. Widespread VFR conditions are expected by 19-20Z today, except at HAF where it will remain IFR-MVFR throughout the TAF period. A northwest to west wind flow will persist at sites south of the Golden Gate, meanwhile North Bay terminals experience southwest to southerly winds. Fresh to moderate breezes are forecast between 10- 15 kt across our area. The marine layer returns again this evening after 02-03Z Thursday with more borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings at most terminals. Low to medium confidence (30-40% chance) on whether LVK and SJC will develop MVFR ceilings as it is dependent on if the marine layer deepens beyond 1000 feet. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR ceilings are still hovering around the terminal, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail after 19Z today. Moderate breezes with embedded gusts increase through the afternoon. MVFR ceilings begin to fill in around 05Z Thursday followed by IFR ceilings around 08Z, which persist through 19Z Thursday. Medium confidence on the arrival and scattering of the stratus. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar general pattern to SFO. Winds ease slightly earlier and MVFR/IFR ceilings arrive shortly after SFO. Ceilings are expected to scatter out before SFO Thursday morning as well. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has cleared at MRY and SNS with VFR expected to continue through this afternoon. Guidance is in agreement that stratus will return early this evening (approx. 00- 03Z) and remain through late tomorrow morning. The marine layer will lower to 1200-1000 ft tonight which may result in the marine layer lowering to IFR overnight. LAMP guidance suggests LIFR conditions and reductions in visibility are possible early tomorrow morning but confidence is low to moderate. Breezy onshore winds are expected this afternoon/evening before winds ease overnight. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Northwest winds remain fresh to strong as embedded near gale force gusts increase into the weekend. Wind driven moderate seas (5-8 ft) build to rough (9-11 ft) this evening into the weekend paired with a long period southerly swell. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warmer and drier conditions continue into this weekend. This increases fire weather concerns slightly as fuels are forecast to rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. The main forecast concern is the lack of instability across our region which may prevent convection from developing. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. && .BEACHES... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  029 FXUS65 KPUB 082202 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 402 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday, forming over the mountains each day and moving over the plains. - Flash flooding concerns persist for the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Severe weather will be possible over the eastern plains this evening, then again Thursday and Friday. - Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, as moisture gradually increases across western Colorado starting Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 400 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Updated to add blowing dust for the San Luis Valley for the next couple of hours. Decaying thunderstorms are pushing winds 50 to 60 mph across the valley, and areas of blowing dust, mainly across eastern portions of the valley, are seeing very low visibilities, less than one mile. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Flat upper high pressure area continues to stretch from southern CA across the Four Corners into the US southern Plains. Upper shortwaves sliding across the region will kick off convective activity through this evening, and again on Thursday. Currently...A bit more convective activity across the forecast area this afternoon, with all storms slowly pushing east and are struggling to maintain any strength, at least initially. As of 1 PM, temps have warmed into the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Main plains locations will likely hit 100F later this afternoon. Tonight...Main concerns this evening will be flash flood threat across the Aspen Acres burn scar, and developing severe weather threat for the far eastern plains. Given current activity on radar, feel that the Flash Flood Watch for the AA Fire is a good thing this evening through 8 PM. Given how fresh the burn is and how hydrophobic the ground likely is, any storm crossing the area will be a concern. Much of the activity should push east of the AA Fire by 8 PM. Second, SPC had painted a large portion of the eastern plains within a Slight, and even have an Enhanced touching Kiowa County. There is some favorable CAPE for the plains tonight, but does not necessarily sync up with the best forecast bulk shear. Regardless, as storms push east late this afternoon and eve they may be able to tap into the increased llvl moisture and some favorable shear, enough for potentially some damaging wind gusts and large hail. Best time window out east looks to be now until 8 PM, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Crowley, Otero, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties. Plan on mild overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Tomorrow...Similar set-up for Thursday, though a degree or two cooler, and hi-res models are showing much more favorable CAPE and bulk shear for the plains. Therefore, with the continuing threat of greater areal coverage of storms along the eastern slopes of the eastern mts, issued another Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres Fire for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Across the east, SPC Day 2 Outlook paints much of the plains within a Slight area, and it actually looks more favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon through the eve. As for fire weather conditions, some spotty critical conditions may develop across the San Luis Valley in the afternoon, but at this time winds are a little questionable so will hold off on any highlights. Farther north for Fire Zone 220, affecting the Willow Fire, near critical fire weather conditions are forecast as well with gusty winds definitely there, and only question will be how low the RH gets in the aftn. Look for high temps in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday night and Friday...Plan on a mild night with moderate RH recovery, with lows in the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. Upper high starts to amplify Friday, leading to drying across UT and western CO. Long range models do show another upper disturbance dropping south across the central US plains and eastern CO, keeping storm chances in play for the CO plains Fri afternoon and evening, some of which will likely be strong to severe. Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Spotty critical fire weather conditions continue across the San Luis Valley, as well as across Lake and Chaffee counties. Saturday through Wednesday...Upper ridge migrates to the north and northeast over the weekend and into the upcoming work week, providing for lingering hot conditions for the entire area into the middle of the upcoming work week. Though the eastern plains will likely remain dry, the track of the upper high does allow for some monsoon moisture to start creeping northward into western CO starting Monday, with some isolated convection spilling over along the Continental Divide. Moore && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Isolated to scattered convection will fire over the mts by midday then track east, so maintained PROB30 wording from roughly 20z-02z for all three sites for -TSRA and VRB gusts 35-40 kts. Further east, storms may become strong to severe, producing gusts up to 60 mph and large hail. Light diurnal sfc winds are forecast by around midnight and for the remainder of the forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOORE  282 FXUS63 KGLD 082208 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 408 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This afternoon, we are still expecting temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s across the CWA, likely the warmest of the week. There is a weak stationary boundary that is set up over northeastern Colorado. This may form some weak showers early this afternoon, which could drain some of the instability from the environment for the storms later today. There is only a 5-10% chance of this occurring though. The main line of storms will be coming from a 500 mb shortwave trough. Overall, today is a stronger copy of Tuesday. Storms look to be entering the western CWA around 22-0Z. Most likely, we will see a broken line of storms fire off in eastern Colorado and fill into a QLCS by 0-3Z. Wind is the primary threat with these storms, especially if a bowing segment in the QLCS is able to form. Winds up to 85 MPH would be possible in this case, which would create a blowing dust hazard, maybe even a haboob. Most likely, wind gusts will be in the 55-70 MPH range, which could lead to blowing dust, but a haboob becomes slightly less likely and localized plumes of dust would become the hazard. Effective shear looks to be on the low-end side for this event, mainly in the 20-35 kts range. This is still enough for some severe hail to form, but makes it less likely. LCLs are forecast to be above 2 km. That combined with the poor shear means tornadoes are extremely unlikely this evening. The severe threat looks to end around 6Z, but showers may linger until closer to 9-12Z. Over the past multiple runs, the NAMNest has been showing a second solution to today's convection. This would have a cell form around or south of Limon, CO and move to the southeast in the early evening. Then, around 4-5Z, around the Tri-State border, another round of storms fires and move to the east-southeast. This solution is less likely, but if it occurs the wind threat lowers significantly, the hail threat increases to 2 inches being possible, and severe convection may last until closer to 9Z. In addition to these threats, there is a 25% chance that some backbuilding fingers from the main line of convection produce 1-2 inches of rain. It's unlikely, but this could produce localized flash flooding overnight tonight. Tomorrow's severe threat is very similar to today, with slightly better shear. Low level flow may be a few knots higher, which looks to push effective shear closer to the 35 kts mark. This increases the likelihood of hail, but maximum hail size remains around 1.75 inches. There is a slightly higher chance of a brief tornado, but still less than 2%. Models are in better agreement that tomorrow will be a QLCS moving across the CWA with wind being the primary threat, still. The dust potential does decrease due to recent precipitation, but is still a possibility. Once again, a 500 mb shortwave trough looks to spark off the main wave of storms, entering the CWA around 22-0Z. However, there is a 20% chance that another weak boundary fires off some weak showers and storms in eastern Colorado around 18-20Z. This convection may once again lower instability and decrease the severe risk for Friday evening. The main wave of the convection looks to have severe potential until around 6-9Z Friday morning. As far as a flooding threat, this increases with Thursday night's storms. PWATS in the 1.2-1.6 inch range are expected and there are more models that are trying to show leading edge and backbuilding fingers of convection. This could lead to precipitation totals in the 2-4 inch range. Combined with tonight's precipitation, this increases the overnight flash flooding risk to around 30%. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today, but still in the 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to remain around 60s in the western CWA and around 70 in the eastern CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday appears to be the last in a series of days with diurnally driven thunderstorms developing and persisting through the evening hours. Confidence in this time period is somewhat lower than normal since it will strongly depend on how thunderstorms develop tonight and tomorrow night. That being said, general pattern appears to hold frontal zone to the south of area, with generally easterly upslope flow throughout the day. Best large scale forcing for ascent appears to just skirt the CWA south of Interstate 70 as weak H7-H5 low moves into SW Kansas. As mentioned before, confidence in details is low at this point and time but overall pattern supports another round of thunderstorms developing over higher terrain and moving to the east southeast in the evening hours. Directional shear will be better than previous days, although overall wind speeds aloft are on the weaker side Friday will likely provide the best shear profiles for organized storms. Similar to the past few days, highest threat will be for organized areas of damaging winds through the evening followed by threat for hail in the 1" to 1.75" range. Blowing dust threat will depend greatly on how and where precipitation falls on Thursday and morning cloud cover. Confidence in these specifics are very low at this point however, resulting in low confidence in dust threat. Region will move into a warm and dry pattern as strong H5 597 dm ridge develops and builds into the northern plains through the start of the week. While there is a small threat for precipitation/thunderstorms on periphery of the H5 ridge Saturday this potential drops off rapidly through the rest of the period as subsidence under strong ridge. With probabilities of this magnitude of ridging fairly high based on ensemble probabilities, confidence in hot and overall dry weather is high. With temperatures climbing into the 90s, possibly upper 90s by mid week, the primary expected impacts. Right now, dewpoints should remain high enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions, but will have to keep a close eye on heat indices through the start of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 406 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail at both KMCK and KGLD through the period. Winds are forecast to be fairly light this afternoon, favoring an east-northeasterly direction. Storms look to move through the region this evening into the overnight hours. Expect strong gusts with the leading edge of the storms from the northwest, potentially with blowing dust too. Heavy rain and blowing dust may lead to temporarily IFR visibilities and ceilings. Behind the storms, winds will favor a northwesterly direction, before favoring a northeasterly direction later in the morning Thursday. Another similar round of storms is forecast tomorrow evening. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...CA  471 FXUS63 KOAX 082227 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 527 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - |Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight. The main hazards will be strong winds, hail, and localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. - A few showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through Friday across the region. - A pattern shift Saturday will bring a return of the heat on Sunday and into the extended forecast. Widespread highs in the 90s and lows in the 60s and 70s are expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers and a few weak thunderstorms have fired up along a cold front and are currently moving across northeastern Nebraska/northwestern Iowa. This activity is expected to continue over the next few hours. Heading into the evening, models are showing a line of thunderstorms developing along the cold front. MLCAPE values of 2500+ are expected along with DCAPE values of 1000+, particularly for areas extending from along and south of a line from Fremont to Utica. A few single thunderstorms will eventually congeal into a line as it moves southeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected with wind, hail, and localized flooding be the main concerns. Precipitable water values are in the 1.4-1.7" range, so any storms that are able to get going could be efficient rain makers. Right now, the best chance for strong storms will be after 7pm. Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight. A few showers/storms may linger into the morning Thursday, before tapering off by early afternoon. Enjoy the cooler temperatures as highs reach the mid-80s for most locations. Afternoon high temperatures will be dependent on how soon the rain and clouds clear out. A quicker exit would allow us to warm slightly higher than forecasted temperatures, while a delayed exit would result in cooler temps. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures, dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s, so it will feel pretty muggy. A shortwave trough moves across the region Thursday afternoon/evening, bringing a chance for a few additional showers and storms. Friday will bring more relief from the heat as highs climb into the low to mid-80s. However, dewpoints will once again be in the 60s and 70s, so it will feel pretty muggy. Another shortwave trough slides across eastern Nebraska Friday afternoon, bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday through the rest of the extended forecast: An upper ridge builds over the region with surface high pressure centered over Iowa and Illinois. While we will have a break from the thunderstorms, the heat is expected to return. The CPC is showing that there is a good chance of above normal temperatures occurring across the Midwest and Great Plains in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Sunday highs will reach into the 80s and low 90s. Heading into the start of next week, widespread 90s will return. Lows will be in the low 70s several nights. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 522 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorm development is underway along a front draped across northeast Nebraska this evening. Storms will quickly grow into a larger cluster that slowly pushes southward into the overnight period. Confidence is high (80%) that each terminal will see thunderstorms tonight, with some amendments/refinements likely needed in exact timing. Patchy MVFR to IFR conditions are possible under any heavier thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms will also be possible, with pockets of damaging wind gusts (up to 50 kts) and hail (up to 1.50 inches). Severe weather potential will gradually diminish into the overnight period. Storms will clear from north to south during the early morning hours Thursday, with patchy MVFR ceilings possible into the morning hours behind the clearing showers. Winds will remain out of the south ahead of the front, quickly shifting to northerly behind the front. Winds will remain at 8-12 kts, besides when augmented by thunderstorm gusts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...Wood  940 FXUS64 KMAF 082235 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 535 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 533 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Isolated thunderstorms (10-20%) will be possible this afternoon over the Big Bend and over higher terrain areas Thursday and Friday. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An upper-level ridge continues to extend across the Desert Southwest and into southeast New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon. Deep layer subsidence underneath this feature is largely suppressing cloud cover across our region early this afternoon except for a few high-based cumulus. Weak upslope flow and ascent along the northern periphery of a weak shortwave impulse over northern Mexico could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Big Bend region this afternoon, but any activity that develops should diminish by early this evening. Low temperatures early Thursday morning should average near normal with readings mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The upper-level ridge will continue to stretch from southern California into west Texas again on Thursday. Mostly sunny skies can expected again across our region with hot temperatures in the mid 90s to around 103 degrees over most places. Weak upslope flow could result in the development of a couple of isolated cells over the higher terrain Thursday afternoon, but POPs will be 20% or less. Lows Thursday night remain seasonably warm in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper-level ridge will strengthen over the Four Corners and adjacent Rocky Mountains and northern High Plains Friday through the weekend. Isolated afternoon convection will remain confined to higher terrain areas both Friday and Saturday with mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures persisting over the rest of the forecast area. An easterly to northeasterly mid-level flow pattern generally returns late this weekend into early next week as our forecast area becomes positioned to the south of the building ridge over the central and northern Plains. Medium range and ensemble guidance indicate an increase in deep layer moisture with this pattern with precipitable water values rising to between 1.5- 1.75 inches early next week. Shortwave impulses in the mid-level flow along with the increased moisture and afternoon heating/ instability will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of our region Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most areas both days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. Convective chances will be nil, but forecast soundings develop a cu field late Thursday morning/early afternoon, mainly West Texas terminals, w/bases ~ 4.5-8 kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 101 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 93 70 94 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 70 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 61 92 63 95 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 &&.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...99  018 FXUS63 KIWX 082236 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 636 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet today with highs in the mid/upper 80s. - Thunderstorms are likely Thursday evening and overnight. Isolated severe storms and heavy rain are possible with the best chances south of US-30. - Low chances for a few storms Friday and Saturday but turning dry and hot again next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main forecast concern over the next 24 to 48 hours continues to be the increased potential for convection w/ the passage of a weak mid-level short wave from Thursday evening through Friday AM. Little has changed w/ regard to the overall forecast thinking as confidence has increased in a more southeastward trajectory of the short wave, leaving the bulk of our CWA with very meager instability/shear profiles while the most ripe theta-e air mass (and better wind profiles) remain well to the south. Still think the focus area will remain south of US-30, but still some uncertainty here w/ mesoscale influences. As such, not comfortable trending PoPs downward at this point even though it seems central and southern IL/IN may be in a more favorable position. There remain some hints at a nocturnal MCS tracking across the region overnight, possibly impacting a set of our southern zones. Would anticipate heavy rain and localized flooding to be the primary hazard for this event, but a couple strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. /Hammer Previous Discussion (Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026): Another tranquil weather day today as broad mid/upper level ridging and low level theta-e sink remain centered directly over our CWA. Some patchy fog is possible this morning but limited near-surface moisture and some clouds in the SE will keep coverage and density in check. Highs today likely very similar to yesterday though perhaps a degree or two warmer given some subtle WAA and airmass modification under strong July sun. Lows tonight only in the mid/upper 60s due to slowly increasing low level moisture and a slightly warmer afternoon. Main forecast concern is thunderstorm potential Thu evening/ overnight. A weak (convectively modified) midlevel shortwave will approach the area Thu evening. A modest increase in low level SW flow ahead of this wave will bring better moisture into the region but it's worth noting far better theta-e surge remains focused over central and southern IL/IN. Midlevel lapse rates remain paltry and 0- 1km MLCAPE values likely struggle to get much above 1000 J/kg. Wind/shear profiles are also light with only around 20 kts of flow at 850mb and 0-6km bulk shear values are 25-30 kts at best. These parameters are marginally supportive of a few strong/severe storms. However, expect coverage of strong storms to remain low given weak mid/upper level support for upward ascent and better moisture convergence focused to our south. The best chances for a few strong storms currently appear to be roughly 22-04Z south of US-30 but that could change over the next 24-36 hours. Will also have to keep an eye on the overnight hours as some solutions send an MCS through central IL/IN late Thu night into Fri morning that could clip our southern zones with some heavy rain. Still think better chances for this will be just south of our area along the main moisture gradient but confidence isn't high and will watch this closely over the next few forecast cycles. The rest of the forecast is mainly quiet. A few SCT storms will be possible again late Friday and perhaps on Sat. Friday's chances will be dependent on exact timing and evolution of potential morning MCS but suspect a return to dry/stable NE flow behind this wave will keep most of the areadry for most of this time. Again, best chances for a stray shower/storm will be south of US-30. No severe weather expected given even more marginal instability and shear profiles. Large/strong (600+ dam) midlevel ridge then expected to develop over the central CONUS early next week and likely nose into our region at some point. Still some disagreement here with GFS keeping the ridge just to our west and allowing a backdoor cold front midweek while ECMWF (and to a lesser extent the Canadian) bulldoze the ridge into our region leaving us hotter and drier. Slight preference for the latter but overall no changes to the concensus initialization at this time. /AGD && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 632 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR cigs/vsbys through the remainder of this TAF period. Mid clouds begin to increase ahead of an incoming disturbance that will move through just beyond this period. Southwesterly winds around 10 kts becoming breezy with gusts up to 18 kts after 18z Thu. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078-177- 277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD/Hammer AVIATION...Andersen  182 FXUS62 KMFL 082240 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 640 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 639 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors. - Little to no rainfall today and tomorrow; scattered to numerous storms Friday and Saturday, and some could be strong. - Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A general synoptic picture of the eastern CONUS consists of a shortwave/closed low over the MS/TN Valleys, a shortwave off the Northeast US coast that's embedded in the northern stream, a ridge over Florida, and a TUTT over the far southeastern Bahamas. At the surface, the shortwaves have their respective surface reflections as does the ridge. Satellite imagery depicts the initial wave of the SAL spreading over south Florida this morning. Over the next two days, low-level ridging will provide south Florida with steady SE flow and moisture advection under the hot and dry SAL. This setup will severely limit any shower or thunderstorm development and also allow for the mixing of anomalously warm temperatures to the surface. While some of the dry air may alleviate high dewpoints as it mixes to the surface, this is going to be most likely across the interior. At the coasts and near the Lake, near-surface moisture from the maritime influence should keep dewpoints rather high. Highs are forecast to climb into the mid and upper 90s each afternoon, with heat indices in the 105-110 range (possibly a little higher across SW FL). Heat will be, by far, the main sensible weather concern through the short-term and beyond. A heat advisory is in effect for most of south Florida today and will likely be needed again tomorrow. Take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The MS/TN Valley shortwave will drift east and elongate as it slowly phases in with the northern stream as a shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. At the same time the TUTT over the Bahamas will make gradual westward process and weaken a bit as it does so. Direct forcing for ascent from the TUTT appears as though it will remain south of south Florida. However, daily rounds of convection under the TUTT, that will eventually be responsible for its weakening, will advect NW across south Florida in the form of weak MCVs and moisture anomalies. This weak mid-level forcing and addition of moisture may help overcome the SAL and allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop across south Florida on Friday and Saturday. Just where and when the best rain chances will be remains highly dependent on convective development over the Bahamas and Cuba over the coming days, and is too hard to pinpoint at this time. We could also see a greater potential for severe downbursts in the strongest storms as the low/mid-level SAL increases the potential for evaporative cooling on the storm- scale. Where storms are not expected, it will remain hot and heat advisories may continue through late-week into the weekend. The finer details on just how widespread the heat will be should become more clear as the precipitation forecast gains more confidence. Drought-busting rain is not anticipated as widespread totals are forecast to remainunder an inch for the two day period. As the influence from the TUTT move away by the end of the weekend, the SAL becomes re-established across south Florida, with anomalously warm low/mid-level temperatures overspreading the region once again. Expect heat concerns to be more widespread once again, and potentially more severe than earlier in the week. The shower and thunderstorm forecast is tricky as there will likely be convection further north in Florida, associated with forcing from the fractured southern half of the elongated shortwave mentioned above and associated surface trough. While steering flow appears to be mostly westerly, it could be that any robust convection propagates into the warm and unstable south Florida region in the evenings. In general though, rain chances will be lower than typical for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Light easterly winds expected overnight increasing slightly to around 10 kts Thursday afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze expected at APF. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds and seas will increase a bit through the remainder of the week as the western edge of high pressure spreads across the SW Atlantic and SE Gulf. Showers and storms are unlikely both today and tomorrow, but rain chances will increase Friday into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 94 82 93 / 0 10 0 30 West Kendall 78 94 80 94 / 0 10 10 30 Opa-Locka 81 95 82 95 / 0 10 0 30 Homestead 81 93 81 93 / 0 10 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 83 93 83 93 / 0 10 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 82 93 82 92 / 0 10 10 30 Pembroke Pines 82 96 83 95 / 0 10 10 30 West Palm Beach 80 93 81 93 / 0 10 10 30 Boca Raton 82 92 82 91 / 0 0 10 30 Naples 78 96 78 95 / 10 20 10 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM....Harrigan AVIATION...CMF  707 FXUS64 KAMA 082249 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 549 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Hot temperatures continue to hold for the Panhandles with potential to see triple-digit temperatures this afternoon and Thursday. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to return starting tonight in the northwest, with activity possible clear into the weekend. - A dry and hot pattern may return next week with high pressure looking to settle over the Central and Northern Great Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The beginning of a pattern shift is expected today as models see an upper-level trough try to force it way east out of the Alaska Region. In doing this the trough will force the upper-level ridge and its associated high pressure to retreat southwest out the Panhandles. This retreat will then open us up to better potential for showers and thunderstorms this evening as the first or many short-waves push across. Currently the best chances are mostly across the Northwest, however early morning runs of the CAMs have seen some storms extend further south than initially expected with some low chances (10 to 15 percent) of reaching the I-40 corridor this evening. As for Thursday, model agreement continues to see a much stronger short-wave push through leading much better chances (30 to 50 percent) of showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Panhandles that evening and night. What we will need to be monitor, however, is the potential for lingering boundaries from today’s activity. If these boundaries can stay within the Panhandles, then it is possible for activity to start much earlier and further south then present forecasts have. In terms of potential impacts for today and Thursday, most model soundings have see us struggle in terms of instability with any CAPE values struggling to reach 1000 J/kg for both days across our north. However, those same models are showing decent inverted V style soundings with DCAPE upwards 1700 to 1900 J/kg. With this signal present, it would possible to see thunderstorms capable of producing outflow wind gusts upwards of 70 mph, especially in the north where both chances and DCAPE are at their best. However if we can get storms to spread further south Thursday, then there is some slightly better CAPE and moisture to work with that could result in large hail and localized minor flooding concerns for the day. Meanwhile the south will also have to deal with the potential impact of warmer than expected temperatures for both days. While normally this would not be much of a concern, this slight increase could result in much of the south reaching or nearing the triple digit mark for both afternoons. In some of our hotter locations, like the Palo Duro Canyon, these hotter temperature can be amplified to the point that a heat related product may be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 As we progress towards the end of the week, model do see the retreat of the high holding which will allow for the Panhandles to fall back into a more northwesterly to zonal upper-level flow pattern. This patter is more ideal in opening us up to more short- wave activity pushing through clear into the weekend. As it stands, present model runs have been keeping chances of showers and thunderstorms present each day. Friday in particular, continues to trend as best chances (30 to 50 percent) for showers and thunderstorms with models depicting more potent short-waves pushing across the Central Great Plains that afternoon. Of course the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could be presenteach day, with current CAMs seeing much better CAPE values present for Friday. Regardless, still lingering high pressure to our southwest will look to keep temperatures hot with most locations looking to stay in the mid to upper 90s for the rest of the week. However in some of our locations like the Palo Duro Canyon and Canadian River Valley, the terrain influence could see temperatures rise to much more. This potential will only look to increase as we near Sunday with many of the models seeing the ridge and its upper-level high return and push further north into the Great Plains for most of next week. While this push may briefly help push storms chances further south on for the weekend, the Panhandles could be in for a hot and dry week, should the pattern hold into the next work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Main focus for the 00z period is with thunderstorm potential near KGUY and KDHT this evening where confidence is relatively highest. Activity is spotty and may be hard to time, but could become more widespread in the coming hours. Regardless, mentions of thunder have been maintained and amendments may be needed. Any thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts over 40 kts. Otherwise, winds will be mostly out of the south at 10-20 kts for a majority of the period, but will be more erratic overnight. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...38  739 FXUS66 KPDT 082250 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 350 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and locally breezy for the next few days. - Elevated fire weather concerns through the end of the week. - Increasing heat around the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Dry westerly flow will be over the region through Thursday. By Friday, the flow becomes more southwesterly, in response to low pressure off the coast of British Columbia and high pressure near the Four Corners. This ridge of high pressure will expand north and eventually west as we move into next week. Diurnally breezy conditions are expected, mainly over the Cascade Gaps, Simcoe Highlands, Kittitas Valley and Columbia Basin and Gorge. Winds gusts will mainly be in the 20 to 30 mph range. NBM probabilities of wind gusts >= 25 mph are greater than 80 percent through Saturday. However, wind gusts >= 39 mph are generally less than 50 percent, with the exception of the Kittitas Valley. As we get into next week, a large area of high pressure over the Great Basin will move northward then eventually westward. Guidance has been very consistent in bringing increasingly hot weather starting around the middle of the week. What guidance has been less consistent about is exactly how hot it gets and how long it will last. Some of that is simply due to the time scale of the forecast. Some of that is due to the position of the ridge and how it sets up. Temperatures close to 100 degrees, if not above 100 degrees look to start around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week in the lower elevations and potentially go up from there. A 40 to 50 percent chance of moderate HeatRisk returning with Major Heat Risk at least in the Columbia Basin and Yakima Valleys is possible as well. If some of the more bullish guidance ends up being correct, there could end up being multiple days of 100 plus temperatures in the lower elevation areas. Stay tuned on this one. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions persist with no CIG or VIS issues expected. Breezy winds will initiate for the majority of the sites, persisting through the majority of the period. No precip or thunder events expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Diurnally breezy winds over the next few days in the 20 to 30 mph range (with locally higher areas) combined with RH values will keep elevated fire weather concerns. A red flag warning is in effect for the Kittitas Valley through this evening as winds have been quite gusty there. For Thursday, winds will be marginal, around 30 mph again, with RH values mainly in the teens. The area of focus on shifts to the Columbia Basin and Gorge and will need to see if any headlines become necessary. Breezy winds continue Friday and Saturday, but RH values look to be slightly higher....in the 20s in many locations. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 55 88 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 60 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 57 91 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 57 91 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 58 90 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 54 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 47 87 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 53 88 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 50 90 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 58 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...95 FIRE WEATHER...77  133 FXUS63 KTOP 082257 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 557 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are expected to move across the area tonight. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain being the main hazards. - Low chances (15-30%) for showers/storms during the daytime hours Thursday and Friday with higher chances (30-60%) Thursday night and Friday night. - Temperatures hold near average through the weekend, then gradually warm up next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Quasi-zonal flow resides across the Central Plains this afternoon with a surface low located over eastern Colorado. Ahead of this feature, increased southerly winds and deeper mixing have bumped temperatures into the low to mid 90s with heat index values approaching 100 in some areas. A MCV spinning over central Kansas has produced some showers and isolated thunderstorms and the potential for isolated showers/storms will continue as this features shifts east into an unstable and uncapped airmass this afternoon. Weak shear should preclude any severe potential, although inverted-V soundings would support stronger wind gusts if any storm does develop. The evolution of this MCV does lead to at least some additional uncertainty in how convection evolves this evening, but overall thinking remains consistent with previous shifts. As energy moves through the mean flow, convection will spark near the surface low across western Kansas and along a surface boundary in eastern/southern Nebraska and move into the area from the north and west. CAMs have been inconsistent in timing, coverage, and intensity of storms, although recent runs have come into better agreement in WAA showers/storms forming ahead of any complex that moves south out of Nebraska or in from the west. Best chances for severe weather will be with any line segment that does move into the area. An increasing cap along with decreasing instability through the overnight hours should still work to weaken storms as they push south early Thursday. Damaging wind gusts of 60-65 MPH remain the main severe hazard. PWATs around 1.75" will support heavy downpours and the potential for locally heavy rainfall, but the progression of storms should keep any flooding isolated in nature. Showers and storms exit the area by mid-morning Thursday as the front sags into east central Kansas and stalls. Highs on Thursday will be dependent upon how far south the front makes it and where any residual outflow boundary and cloud cover reside. There could be a large temperature gradient across the area, ranging from the low to mid 90s across central and north-central Kansas down to the low to mid 80s across far northeast Kansas. Any additional development during the afternoon and evening would likely be focused near the surface front that is progged to lie near the I-35 corridor. Another complex of storms that develops across the High Plains will work towards the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. The severe potential is low again with this round, but there could be some strong wind gusts with this activity. A similar set-up appears likely for Friday; low chance for an afternoon or evening storm with increasing shower/storm chances Friday night into Saturday morning. The boundary slowly oozes south early next week as mid-level ridging expands south and east across the central CONUS. Dry and hotter conditions are likely through the middle of next week, with some uncertainty in how hot temperatures will reach. The NBM is on the upper-end of the ensemble envelope with highs in the mid to upper 90s. While temperatures of this magnitude are plausible, easterly winds through the entire troposphere donot seem overly conducive for this level of heat. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of TS overnight. There is a good enough signal from the CAMs and MOS guidance to maintain TEMPO groups for TOP and FOE. There continues to be lower confidence for MHK where CAMs suggest TS just skirting to the east of the terminal. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Wolters