401 FXUS65 KSLC 082301 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 501 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... - High based convection will again develop this afternoon, primarily over northern portions of the forecast area. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong outflow winds to 60 mph. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. Critical fire weather conditions will continue Thursday over southern Utah. - A notable heat wave will develop over the weekend with high temperatures challenging daily and monthly records Saturday and Sunday. Most valleys and some mountain valleys have a greater than 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red (major) range, bringing an increased chance of heat related illnesses. - Confidence is increasing the monsoonal moisture will move into the area by the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... High pressure is centered roughly near the Utah/Colorado border late this morning, putting Utah and southwest Wyoning under a breezy west to southwest flow aloft. High based moisture remains in place over northern Utah, while drier air advects in from the southwest. High temperatures will stay on the mild side with maxes running up to 5F above seasonal normals. A weak shortwave is expected to move through the ridge and across northern portions of the forecast area late this afternoon into the evening, with the feature looking a bit better defined than the one that moved through yesterday. Overall, seeing less in the way of shear compared to yesterday, but a bit more CAPE, up to 500 J/kg most likely. Thus, already starting to see showers and thunderstorms developing, currently focused over northwest Utah, with areal coverage and extent both increase late this afternoon into the evening. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong and gusty outflow winds, with the possibility of at least isolated severe gusts later today. The ridge axis is expected to redevelop off the southern California coast on Thursday, bringing a more westerly component to the flow and allowing additional drier air to make its way into the area, particularly over southern Utah. With some moisture continuing to linger and another shortwave on track to move through during the afternoon, anticipate the development of at least a few showers and thunderstorms, though coverage will likely be a bit less than what is anticipated for today. As the airmass continues to dry and strong high pressure builds substantially over the western United States, confidence is high in temperatures across Utah and southwest Wyoming shooting up to record challenging levels for Saturday and Sunday. Guidance continues to show the center of the ridge over Utah on Saturday and just east of the area on Sunday. Guidance has, if anything, gone up with regard to the forecast compared to yesterday, with the majority of valleys and mountain valleys showing at least a 60 percent chance of red (major) HeatRisk for both Saturday and Sunday. It seems all but certain that daily temperature records will be broken, with some monthly and (in the case of the Cache Valley) all time records forecast to be broken. Given this and many valley low temperatures staying in the 70s overnight, this will predictably bring a quite increased chance of heat related illnesses over the weekend. Given the high confidence in the forecast, have gone ahead and issued an Extreme Heat Watch for all of those areas with at least a 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red, which includes just about all valleys (lower Washington county excluded) and many mountain valleys. As the forecast comes in clearer focus over the next couple of days, upcoming shifts will make decisions about advisories and warnings. With southerly flow expected to increase over the area for the early and middle part of the upcoming week, models continue to indicate a high likelihood of monsoonal moisture returning to the area, bringing temperatures down and rain chances up. While this would decrease the fire danger, it brings an increased potential for flash flooding, particularly for southern Utah. && .AVIATION... KSLC...Southerly winds will likely prevail for another couple of hours until northwesterly outflow winds from storms over far NW-UT reach KSLC between 0130-02z. Winds could briefly gust to 25-35kts, with gusts around 20-25kts continuing for a couple hours thereafter. Winds are likely to gradually veer towards light and southeasterly, and may become light and variable overnight. VFR conditions will prevail. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Storms currently over Uinta Co., WY and portions of E-UT will gradually diminish by 02-03z. Over NW-UT, current storms will weaken and gradually shift eastward through the evening across N-UT/SW-WY. These storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds. Additionally, these storms will produce a larger-scale outflow, bringing gusty northwesterly winds to the Wasatch Front sites and KLGU this evening. Once storms diminish, after 07-08z, winds will become light and terrain-driven. More thunderstorms and outflow winds are expected across similar areas on Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 323 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... The airmass has trended drier today under a west- southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts west off the northern Baja coast. Meanwhile, across northern Utah,lingering moisture and instability has brought high-based showers and thunderstorms that will continue into the evening, with isolated dry lightning and gusty outflow winds being the main threat. Enhanced winds combined with the low humidities have brought critical fire weather conditions across portions of central and southern Utah today. The drying trend will continue across the area through the rest of the week, with humidities continuing to trend downward across the area and overnight recoveries become increasingly poor especially across central and southern Utah. Convection will become increasingly isolated during this time as well. Breezy conditions are expected to persist into Thursday and perhaps Friday as relative humidities continue to decrease. For now, have extended the Red Flag Warning for southern Utah into Thursday, and will keep an eye on trends for Friday. As high pressure builds back into the area for the weekend into the beginning of next week, dry and very hot conditions can be expected. Temperatures are very likely to reach at least 100 degrees in most valleys over the weekend, while relative humidities in the single digits will be common. However, the pattern still looks favorable for moisture to increase into the area beginning early next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ101>108-114>116-118>122-128>131. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-493-497. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ495-496-498. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Cunningham FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  515 FXUS65 KPIH 082302 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 502 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms - Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon for fire weather zone 427 due to thunderstorms - Drier weather returns for Thursday and beyond with hot conditions likely for the weekend. Many low elevations will reach 100 degrees by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Main impact this afternoon and evening will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is at least a slight chance everywhere but most likely spot is in the southern hills south of interstates 84 and 86. Will have much less activity on Thursday but a very slight chance remains. Will start to see the warming Thursday with highs in the 80s mountains and into the low 90s valleys. By Friday will have dry conditions with no thunderstorm threat. Low elevations will reach the mid 90s with 80s to lower 90s mountains. By Saturday and Sunday expecting many low elevations to reach 100 degrees. May see a bit of a wind increase Saturday into Sunday with some 20 to 30 mph wind gusts expected. In the long term as the upper level strong ridge pushes east a bit there is the potential some monsoonal moisture may work north on the back side of the ridge by Tuesday and next Wednesday. So there is at least the potential for some increase in moisture and showers and thunderstorms returning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 502 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered convection and numerous outflow boundaries will continue to threaten the terminals through late tonight. Outflow winds are largely ranging 35 to 45 mph with some locally stronger gusts. Convection will cease for the overnight hours before isolated storms return Thursday afternoon. Probability of thunder will be less than 30 at all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Red flag warning remains in effect for zone 427 until 8 pm with scattered thunderstorms expected. Will have at least isolated coverage all zones this evening. Expect much less thunderstorm coverage on Thursday with hot and dry conditions Saturday and Sunday. Expect a bit of a wind increase Saturday and Sunday as well and could have Red flag conditions for low humidity and wind gusts in zones 475,476, 410 and 411 mainly. In the long term could see a monsoonal moisture increase later next week mid week time frame which may increase chance of showers and thunderstorms again. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ427. && $$ DISCUSSION...GK AVIATION...Cropp FIRE WEATHER...GK  559 FXUS63 KJKL 082303 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 703 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch has been issued for increased flash flood potential across the area from Thursday afternoon through early Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 703 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Have incorporated latest radar and mesoscale model trends into the forecast, giving a more notable drop off in convection midway through the night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 241 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A mid-level closed low over the Lower OH/TN Valley will slowly fill and become an open wave this evening into the overnight as it moves up the Ohio River Valley. Westerly flow then builds in its wake Thursday into Thursday night, with another wave and associated convection approaching from the west and west-northwest Thursday night into Friday morning. Numerous convective showers and storms have already developed across the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon. An overall increasing trend in convective activity is likely as the afternoon progresses in a moderately unstable environment with high PWs and lower to mid 70s dewpoints. A bit stronger mid-level flow than yesterday means storm motions are a bit more progressive than yesterday, but the potential for training of heavy rain still exists, particularly in areas where soils are already saturated from recent previous heavy rainfall. Thus, an isolated flash flood potential remains through Thursday morning. Flash flood potential increases Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, as another round of afternoon and evening convection is expected on top of increasingly wet soils. Attention then turns to a potentially significant round of heavy rain at the very end of the period towards dawn Friday with the arrival of one or more mesoscale convective systems. Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued starting at 18z Thursday afternoon, continuing into the first half of the weekend. With an active weather pattern and high humidity through the period, expect continued mild/warm overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s, with little if any ridge-valley temperature splits. Highs Thursday will be tempered somewhat by cloud cover and redeveloping shower and thunderstorm activity, with lower to mid 80s expected. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains. For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday withPWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday. By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed. Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A mix of conditions is expected this afternoon and evening with scattered showers/ thunderstorms persisting through much of the period. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions likely lingering later into the evening than the past couple of nights. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...CMC  625 FXUS64 KCRP 082305 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 605 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts this week, with peak heat indices between 103-108 degrees. - Low rain chances through Thursday along the Coastal Plains, medium rain chances Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Just a few seabreeze showers/storms today thanks to slightly lower deep moisture across the area today. Will see a similar situation tomorrow, though a plume of tropical moisture will be approaching, so probably a bit more convection than today. Temperatures both today and tomorrow will remain near normal. For Friday and Saturday that moisture plume really moves over the area and will have a weak shortwave rotating through the area between ridging over Florida and ridging to the northwest of the area. Will see an increase in convective activity with the aforementioned conditions with PoPs in the 40% range, especially east. PWAT values top two inches an should allow for some heavier downpours. Totals are generally expected to be under half an inch, but as typically happens with this type of convection, slow moving storms will create isolated higher amounts. Moving into next week the mid-level pattern continues to be fairly active with shortwaves, but right now it looks mainly to bring rain chances to the Victoria Crossroads. Temperatures remain near normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, although there will be a low chance of MVFR cigs/vis Thursday morning at KVCT and KCRP with a medium chance of sub-VFR conditions at KALI Thursday morning. Southeast winds around 10 to 15 kts this evening will generally trend into the 5 to 10 knot range overnight before increasing again out of the south-southeast late Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mainly moderate south-southeasterly winds (BF 3-4) will persist through the rest of the work week. A few showers and storms possible today and tomorrow with increasing potential Friday and Saturday. Winds will become more weak to moderate next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 92 78 91 / 10 10 20 30 Victoria 76 96 77 95 / 20 10 20 40 Laredo 76 99 77 97 / 10 10 10 20 Alice 74 95 75 93 / 10 20 10 40 Rockport 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 20 30 Cotulla 76 98 77 96 / 10 10 0 30 Kingsville 74 93 76 91 / 10 10 10 40 Navy Corpus 81 90 82 90 / 10 10 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...NC/91  696 FXUS61 KCAR 082306 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 706 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - 7:06PM UPDATE...Canadian Radars shows an area of showers approaching the St. Lawrence River Valley in Quebec. This area will slowly drift towards the North Woods in the Maine/Quebec Borderlands. Cannot rule out an isolated lightning strike so made some minor tweaks to the overnight POPs and thunder chances. Additionally, adjusted sky conditions based on the latest satellite imagery. There is smoke aloft that continues the very milky skies. HRRR/RAP smoke models continue to indicate the possibility of near surface smoke tomorrow afternoon along the pre-frontal trough. Confidence remains low on if this will result in visibility reduction so opted to not put smoke into the forecast just yet. Also models continue to mainly confine this smoke across Northern 1/3rd of the CWA. Will continue to monitor those trends. - 00z TAF UPDATE...See discussion below for an update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wildfire smoke will remain over the area today leading to milky skies, in areas not overrun by high clouds. Small chance in smoke mixing down toward the surface on Thursday afternoon over the north. 2) Increasing heat and humidity today through late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wildfire smoke will remain over the area today leading to milky skies, in areas not overrun by high clouds. Small chance in smoke mixing down toward the surface on Thursday afternoon over the north. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Wildfire smoke aloft continues to approach from the northwest late this afternoon into tonight. A milky appearance to the sky could be present over the area through the day on Thursday. There are some indications that smoke could begin to mix down towards the surface Thursday afternoon with a pre-frontal trough entering the north per 12z HRRR and RRFS. KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity today through late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A pre-frontal trough will approach the area tonight. An area of showers will likely move into the north and west during the evening. Showers will continue to push southwards through Thursday afternoon, spreading across the Downeast region. Given marginal instability present along the trough, cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms in the Bangor and Downeast regions by mid to late afternoon. Above normal temperatures will continue as well, with temperatures prior to the trough lifting into the upper 80s throughout the Bangor and Interior Downeast regions. Behind the pre-frontal trough, the north will likely remain warmer than average, with highs lifting up to around 80 under continued southwest warm air advection. Temperatures may not lift as high should upper level smoke trend thicker into Thursday afternoon, blocking incoming solar radiation. It looks like the greater threat of storms will be on Friday from Bangor to the coast. However, timing of frontal passage is still uncertain and this will determine how far north storms set up. A slower frontal passage may means storms could fire off around noon in northern and central areas but a faster passage may mean storms are mainly confined to southern areas. Guidance is still showing both solutions but generally leaning towards the latter. Cannot rule out a strong storm for Thursday or Friday, however the bigger threat looks to be locally heavy rainfall out of any storm that develops. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 00z TAF UPDATE... Tonight...Mainly VFR, though cannot completely rule out patchy coastal fog at BHB. Brief MVFR cigs are possible from KPQI northwards late tonight as rain showers move through. S to SW winds 5kts or less. Thursday...VFR/MVFR possible in showers and isolated -tsra. Added PROB30 to HUL and BGR where confidence is slightly higher. Winds shift W behind a frontal passage at 5 to 10 kts. Thursday night....VFR/MVFR in rain showers. Winds light and variable. Friday...VFR/MVFR in showers and tstms, especially at southern terminals. NW winds 5-15kts. Friday Night-Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts, gusts to 20 kt. Saturday Night-Sunday...VFR. N-NW winds around 5kt. Sunday Night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Monday...VFR except possible MVFR in any showers/tstms at northern terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts. && .MARINE... Seas will remain below 5 ft over all waters, with wind gusts remaining below 25 kts all waters through Thursday night. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the waters Thursday night into Friday. Patchy fog could reduce visibility tonight and Thursday night. Winds/seas below SCA conditions this weekend and Monday with just some passing clouds. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AES/SM/JS AVIATION...AES/SM/JS  685 FXUS62 KTAE 082305 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 705 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 704 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Rain chances decrease some the next couple of days but a increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend and through early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Heat advisory conditions will be in play across the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 DCAPE is sufficient to support isolated marginally-severe storms this afternoon, mainly across our Florida counties. Convective coverage will decrease on Thursday as deep-layer ridging becomes the dominant synoptic-scale influence. Temperatures will remain above normal, but heat indices should remain below advisory criteria across most areas. However, portions of the central and western Big Bend west to the Panama City area may be the exception. The overnight shift will do a final evaluation before any heat advisory is issued. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Ridging will suppress convective activity across much of the area on Friday. However, increased coverage is expected across Southeast Alabama as a bit of shortwave energy sweeps by to our north. A positively-tilted long wave trough will then settle into the Southeast over the weekend and stall just north of the forecast area early next week, along with an attendant surface front. These features will ramp up convective coverage considerably. One more day of above normal temperatures is expected on Saturday. Temps will be near normal on Sunday before extensive cloud cover from showers and storms keep afternoon temps below normal from Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 704 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity has come to an end this evening. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the upcoming TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to return mid-morning for ECP, and continue through the afternoon for DHN, TLH, and ABY terminals. MVFR cigs or lower are possible if storms move directly overhead. Coverage isn't very high, as noted by PROB30 groups. Otherwise, southwest winds around 5-10 kts can be expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through Thursday, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 With a typical summer pattern in place, there are little to no fire weather concerns. Fog Concerns and Other Remarks...No widespread fog is expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts around an inch are forecast for our Florida counties with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. Lower totals are forecast to the north. No flooding is expected.&& .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 94 76 95 / 0 30 0 10 Panama City 81 92 80 92 / 20 30 10 20 Dothan 76 94 75 94 / 0 20 10 40 Albany 76 95 76 95 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 76 97 75 96 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 77 96 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 Apalachicola 81 90 80 90 / 0 20 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ018-019-028-029- 034-118-128-134. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ124>131-144>148- 158>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM....Wool AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Wool HYDROLOGY...Wool  357 FXUS61 KGYX 082314 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 714 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence has increased that southeastern New Hampshire is going to see heat index values greater then 95F Thursday afternoon. A Heat Advisory has been issued accordingly. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Heat and humidity build Thursday, lasting through Friday before a slow moving front brings cooler and drier air by late Friday night. 2. A couple of weak cold fronts bring a chance of thunderstorms on both Thursday and Friday afternoons and evenings. Some of these could be strong to severe. 3. Mostly dry with seasonable temperatures this weekend with a warming trend possible during the early to middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Latest model guidance is all in good agreement on warm and sticky weather beginning Thursday as 850 mb temperatures climb to +16-18C under a low amplitude ridge that will be quickly swinging through the region. This supports surface temperatures in the upper 80s to 90F, with southwesterly flow providing an extra boost to valley locations that may push them more toward 91-92F via downsloping. The southwesterly winds are also going to bring elevated dewpoints (middle to upper 60s) that will push heat indices up above 90 in many locations. The southern New Hampshire portion of the Merrimack Valley may even see heat index values in 95+ range, so have gone ahead with a Heat Advisory for Eastern Hillsborough and Interior Rockingham. The sea breeze likely gets kept at bay, so these aforementioned warm temperatures should be realized right down to the coast. For areas north of the mountains, the front looks to begin to sag south of the International Border bringing increased cloud cover and showers/storms (detailed in Key Message 2). This stunts warming potential, limiting these locations to the low to mid 80s. As the front continues to sink southward Friday cooler and drier air will be moving in behind it. As of now areas north of the mountains stand the best chance of seeing a more pleasant day with highs in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints down into the upper 50s and low 60s. South of the mountains, 850 mb temperatures around +17C linger in southern zones so those locations are likely to see another day with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to 90F. Elevated dewpoints linger too, but with temperatures a little bit lower on Friday, heat indices should be as well. Guidance is still struggling slightly with the timing of the front, but it looks like by late Friday night most locations should be seeing the relief with low temperatures dropping into the 50s and 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... In addition to the heat and humidity, a couple of weak cold fronts will also bring chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon to early evening hours each day for Thursday and Friday. For Thursday, the higher overall chances for storms will be across the north in closer to proximity to the cold front itself, and some of these could be strong to severe with 30-35 kt of effective shear and around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE per the HREF ensemble mean (some deterministic guidance has more instability). Farther south, instability is forecast to be more in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, but coverage may be more limited because of lesser forcing, lesser shear, and some dry air aloft. However, if storms do develop in southern areas, they may carry more of a wind threat with the dry air aloft bringing more in the way of DCAPE. PWATs climbing over 1.50" and deepening warm cloud depths will also support efficient rain rates, and with flow roughly parallel the boundary, we'll have to monitor for a localized flash flood risk if any training can set up. This lines up well with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall from WPC in and around the mountains. Most guidance has this front pushing offshore Friday morning with a secondary front approaching later in the day, and lift from this front should again allow showers and storms to develop in the afternoon. Today's 12Z guidance doesn't look to bring quite as much instability, but there still may be enough for a couple of strong to severe storms as shear parameters look fairly similar to Thursday (the higher potential looks to be south of the mountains this time). KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Surface high pressure builds toward New England over the weekend, but a 500mb shortwave may provide enough lift for a few showers on Saturday. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast with fairly seasonable temperatures in the 80s. For the early to middle part of next week, there is high confidence in a strong ridge of high pressure to become centered over the Central and Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes. Some expansion of the ridge is possible toward the Northeast to bring a warming trend, but we also may remain more on the eastern periphery to bring occasional chances of showers/storms ("ridge rollers") and more cloud cover. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through Thursday....VFR conditions continue through Thursday afternoon with LEB and HIE possible seeing localized IFR conditions after midnight as valley fog develops again tonight. This is more or less a persistence based forecast with a slight delay in timing due to drier conditions. Any valley fog that forms should clear out quickly after sunrise with the prevailing condition turning back to VFR. Some TEMPO MVFR is possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon but confidence is too low to add to TAFs at this time. Outlook... Thursday night: Mostly VFR with MVFR remaining possible as showers and storms linger. IFR fog is also possible again, especially in locations that see rain and valleys, but uncertainty is high regarding that. Friday: Lingering IFR possible at LEB through around 13Z due to valley fog. VFR otherwise, but afternoon thunderstorms could bring TEMPO IFR to MVFR restrictions. Saturday-Sunday: Mainly VFR. However, nighttime/early morning valley fog may bring IFR to LIFR restrictions, mainly at HIE and LEB. Monday: TEMPO IFR to MVFR possible due to afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, VFR. && .MARINE... Winds shift southwesterly tonight with that being the prevailing wind through Thursday. High pressure builds back over the Atlantic keeping wind gusts and waves generally below SCA thresholds. The exception may come Thursday night as high pressure moves off to the east and some 5ft seas creep into the outer coastal waters, but at this time the extent does not warrant an SCA. Friday-Wednesday...SCA conditions are not expected through at least the weekend. A weak cold front crosses Friday with a brief wind shift to the north later in the day into Friday night. High pressure then builds across the Northeastern US over the weekend before shifting to the east early next week. As the high shifts east, south to southwest flow may approach SCA levels during the early to middle parts of next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NHZ012-013. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Combs AVIATION...Legro  414 FXUS63 KBIS 082315 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. - A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the week, with very hot daily high temperatures around 95 to 105 forecast this weekend through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update. Earlier showers across portions of the northwest and north central have dissipated. Have tweaked sky grids this evening, but otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently quasi-zonal flow is over the Northern Plains and northern Rockies. At the surface, a high pressure is in far southern Canada, influencing the Dakotas and eastern Montana. Around the high is a stationary front from central Montana to Nebraska, and back up to Minnesota. A very slight wave in the zonal flow has created light rain showers in northern North Dakota today. Thursday another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the evening. All of western and central North Dakota is in a level 1 risk, with a smaller area through the middle part of the state of a level 2 risk. A weak surface low pressure will move east across the International Border in the western half of the state. With at least 35 knots of shear, and the shear vector perpendicular to that stationary front, isolated super cells are possible in western and central North Dakota. With ample surface heating and moisture advecting into the state, the middle third of the state was upgraded to a level 2 risk. This moisture advection will create pockets of 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The current forecast for hazards are hail size is up to 2 inches and 60mph wind gusts. Convection will likely start discrete before becoming clusters as outflow boundaries collide through the event. Timing and location are unfortunately low confidence as the various CAMs have differences. The general consensus for a start time is in between 21 and 00z in western ND, and moving southeast, exiting our area by 10z. Looking ahead to this very hot weekend, a large upper level high will strengthen over the Desert Southwest. This will create a ridge over the Northern Plains, allowing that clockwise moving high to push the hot air northward at the 850mb level. The current deterministic NBM temperature forecast continue to show lower triple digits for western and parts of central ND Sunday and Monday, but overall the extreme heat will last from Friday through at least Tuesday. One thing to note for Sunday and Monday, is that the deterministic temperatures have been the 75th percentile of the NBM, meaning there is likely a warm bias occurring and actual temperatures won't be as high. This morning's run, already has come down closer to the 50th percentile, although that is still in the triple digits. Like every very warm day in the state, there will be a strong south wind, with gust up to 30mph through the weekend. The large upper high will slowly roll to the northeast and end up centered on the Central Plains by Monday. An Alberta Clipper moving through Minnesota will then squish the high back to the west. This will squeeze the very warm temperatures down to the South Dakota border, while the rest of the state drops to the 80s or low 90s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility is generally expected at all terminals throughout the 00Z TAF period. Late tonight into Thursdaymorning, there will be some chances for scattered showers west of Highway 83 (which runs between Bismarck and Minot). Where these showers do develop, periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible. Confidence in when and where these showers are too low to include mentions at any given TAF site at this time. Higher chances for showers and some thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially across the north. Winds are generally expected to remain light to very light this evening through Wednesday afternoon, gradually turning out of a generally easterly direction at the start of the TAF period to a more south southwesterly direction by the end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Adam  349 FXUS64 KHGX 082314 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot conditions continue. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. - Scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Strong gusty winds, locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning are the main risks with the strongest storms. Lower, but non- zero, rain chances Thursday. - A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive Thursday night and Friday. Daily chances of showers and storms will continue through the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A weak mid-level trough axis remains stretched across southeast Texas, interacting with our typical summertime sea breeze pattern. Early this afternoon, obs show PW values in the 1.7-1.9 inch range, and near 2.0 inches closer to the coast. Daytime heating and sufficient moisture will continue to support isolated to scattered, diurnally driven sea breeze showers/storms through early this evening. While dry air aloft is driving decent mixing, any stronger storms will be capable of producing localized downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds (25-45 mph) through the evening hours. A rinse-and-repeat forecast is expected on Thursday, with isolated coastal showers/storms in the morning, developing further inland in the afternoon. However, chances will be lower due to a lack of moisture. Heading into Friday and the weekend, an inverted mid-level trough over the southwestern Gulf and a tightening pressure gradient over our region will open the gates for a deeper tropical moisture surge. This deep moisture profile, combined with persistent weakness/vorticity maxes aloft, will set up the stage for more scattered to widespread showers and storms (40 to 75%) persisting into at least mid-week next week. Seasonal summer heat continues with highs climbing into the mid 90s. Hot conditions paired with persistent southerly to southwesterly flow, and more Gulf moisture will result in peak heat indices in the triple digits (100-107F). Temperatures are progged to be a few degrees cooler next week given higher PoPs. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Latest radar and satellite imagery show mainly quiet weather around the forecast area, with VFR prevailing at all TAF sites. Will need to monitor for further thunderstorm development over the next couple of hours, but overall dry weather is anticipated through the remainder of the night. Overnight tonight, patchy fog/stratus clouds are expected to develop again in a few spots. Added TEMPO groups for brief MVFR ceilings around sunrise at locations that have seen ceilings over the past few mornings. Any ceilings that do develop should lift and dissipate by mid/late morning. The SAL will make its return tomorrow and should help mitigate or suppress widespread seabreeze thunderstorm activity. However, a few spotty showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with the seabreeze through the afternoon. At this time, coverage and probabilities are too low (below 30%) to mention any chance of precipitation in the TAFs through tomorrow evening. Surface winds remain light out of the SW/S through tomorrow morning, with a slight bump in wind speeds out of the south during the afternoon light. Overall, VFR is anticipated to prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds (generally from the south-southwest) and seas between 1 and 3 ft will prevail through most of the period. However, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to slightly stronger winds (gusts up to 20 kts at times) and seas up to 4-5 ft (offshore) late tonight through late Friday. A typical summer pattern continues with a daily risk of isolated to scattered morning showers and storms, gradually moving further inland in the afternoon. The best rain/storm chances arrive Friday through Saturday and then again in the upcoming week as different disturbances move through the region. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 97 76 95 / 20 10 10 20 Houston (IAH) 78 96 79 95 / 20 20 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 82 90 / 0 20 20 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Mejia MARINE...JM  454 FXUS64 KLUB 082315 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Daily thunderstorm chances return Thursday and continue through Tuesday. For Thursday and Friday, the storm chances are generally confined to areas north and west of Lubbock. - Hot temperatures continue through Saturday, followed by a slight cooldown Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 At midday Wednesday, mostly clear skies existed across the forecast area. A flattened upper ridge was positioned over the SW CONUS, with an upper low over the Ohio Valley. A weak sfc low was located over SW KS, which contributed to breezy SW winds this morning. As a weak shortwave ejects this afternoon, modest sfc pressure falls over SE CO will turn winds to S/SE locally. Convection will develop along the higher terrain of north NM/CO by this evening and spread east, but any upper support from the aforementioned shortwave will be focused towards W KS, thus the expectation is our forecast area stays dry tonight. For Thurs, a similar evolution to today is expected as another impulse traverses the upper ridge. This will once again result in SW sfc winds during the morning followed by S/SE flow during Thurs afternoon. High temps will be similar to Wed, perhaps a degree or two warmer, generally in the upper 90s on the Caprock and low triple digits off the Caprock. This shortwave is expected to be slightly deeper, and track a bit further southeast, than tonight's wave, which does introduce some low precip chances (10-20%) to the northwest portions of the forecast area Thurs evening, but the better precip chances will once again be focused from I-40 northward into W KS. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 There is high confidence that the synoptic pattern will feature a strengthening ridge, with height rises occurring to our west and north as the ridge expands into the northern Plains this weekend. While there may be some modest height rises locally, it will not be sufficient to stymie precip development and at least some precip chances exist within the forecast area Fri-Tues, generally in the afternoon or evening. Fri evening features a similar pattern to Wed-Thurs, thus precip chances are once again focused across the northwest CWA (20%) and increase north of our forecast area. Precip chances expand and include much of the region both Sat evening (20-50%) and Sun afternoon/evening (20-40%). A slow moving front over the central Plains/Midwest will gradually be nudged southward by the sfc high that develops over the Midwest in response to the upper ridge. As this occur, the higher PWAT airmass will gradually shift south of our area, lowering the precip chances. The model blend kept a low chance (20%) of precip across the southern half of the forecast area on Mon/Tues, but the better precip chances (30-40%) will be to the south of our forecast area. While any storms that do form will be capable of producing gusty winds, organized severe storms appear unlikely over the next week owing to weak deep layer shear and uninspiring mid-level lapse rates. Temperatures will remain similar through Saturday, then trend slightly cooler early next week (highs on the Caprock in the low 90s, mid 90s off the Caprock). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR TAFs thru 00Z/09 with mainly clear skies and a southerly breeze. JW && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...13  489 FXUS64 KMEG 082316 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 616 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase through Friday. Heat index values will approach 105 degrees on Thursday and Friday for portions of the Mid-South, especially areas along and west of the Mississippi River. The heat will continue into the weekend. - A slow-moving upper-level disturbance will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week. The stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A compact upper-level low continues to spin over the lower OH Valley today. This feature will continue to provide large-scale ascent across the region, aiding the development of scattered convection this afternoon. The environment remains very moist, with precipitable water (PWAT) near 2.0" across the CWA. Very weak deep-layer shear and a modicum of mid-level dry air will again result in an environment favorable for locally heavy downpours and perhaps a few microbursts. That said, the severe weather threat remains generally low today. Convection will likely continue into the early evening hours with a few cells potentially persisting longer. PoPs were extended after 7 PM in some areas. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The heat is expected to build slightly on Thursday and Friday, with highs climbing 2-4 degrees across the CWA. This is in response to the aforementioned upper-level trough moving east toward the Appalachians. This should lead to slightly lower diurnal coverage of thunderstorms and less cloud cover. The NBM is pushing heat indices to 105-109 degrees tomorrow afternoon, mainly in the MS delta and west of the MS River. However, the NBM appears to be overdoing dewpoints and may have a slight warm bias. It's not out of the question that a few areas reach 105F (heat index), but coverage should be low enough to preclude a Heat Advisory. Will let the next shift reassess this potential. Otherwise, expect scattered diurnal convection with an early evening lull. CAMs continue to indicate increasing convective development Thursday night as activity upstream over MO/KY moves ESE into portions of the MO Bootheel, far northeast AR, and northwest TN. PWATs remain high, and the guidance indicates the potential for training storms in this corridor. The flooding risk will primarily be driven by short-duration rainfall rates (especially in more urban areas), but there is a potential for 2-3+ inches of rain should all ingredients come together. A Flood Watch has been issued to account for this flooding risk, roughly along and north of a line from Corning, AR, to Dyersburg, TN, to Parsons, TN, beginning at 1 PM Thursday. This watch will continue through Friday and Saturday, given the likelihood of daily redevelopment. There is also a slightly higher risk for severe weather on Friday given the strong instability and potential for microburst activity. The marginal risk (level 1/5) captures this risk sufficiently. Moving into the weekend, the upper-level ridge quickly builds over the Rockies and Northern/Central Plains, with 500-mb geopotential heights near or just above 600 dam by early next week. These heights exceed climatology for the Northern Plains, indicative of a very strong upper-level ridge. The good news is that we'll be removed from the anomalous mid-level heights on the southern periphery of the ridge, limiting our temperature-related impacts. This pattern will result in deep easterly flow that will maintain a relatively moist, unstable air mass Monday through midweek. Expect the status quo of afternoon/evening convection each day with temperatures remaining near or slightly below climatology. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty about how this pattern will evolve during the latter half of the week. Will the ridge retreat over the western CONUS, or will it persist over the middle of the country? A slight majority of the GEFS members (and to a lesser degree the EPS) are more aggressive with the trough digging over the eastern CONUS by mid/late next week. This builds the western ridge, promoting northwest flow aloft across the Mid- South. This pattern would likely result in lower diurnal PoPs due to a drier air mass, but could also open the door for MCS activity. Still a lot of details to sort through with these scenarios. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms are still ongoing at the start of the 00z taf period. This activity will slowly dwindle as instability begins to wane. Light and variable winds are anticipated overnight with some remnant cirrus from today's thunderstorms. A shortwave will cross the airspace tomorrow threatening another round of showers and thunderstorms. VFR conditions should prevail except for localized visibility reductions in thunderstorms. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No fire weather concerns are anticipated across the Mid-South through the next week. Minimum relative humidity is forecast to remain above 40 percent each day with generally light 20-foot winds. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, with the most likely time during the afternoon and early evening hours. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for ARZ009. MO...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for MOZ113-115. MS...None. TN...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for TNZ001>004-019>022-054-055. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ AVIATION...DNM  654 FXUS61 KBGM 082320 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 720 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm temperatures and increasing humidity are expected across Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania into Friday. 2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the region Thursday afternoon through Friday before quiet weather and high pressure build back in for the weekend. 3) After seasonal temperatures this weekend, heat builds into the area through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Weak ridging over the area has brought mostly sunny skies and has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. Temps should rise a few degrees more as we enter peak afternoon heating. WSW flow returns tonight as the ridge slides east and a trough digs into the Great Lakes. This flow will push warmer, more humid air into the region. Temperatures Thursday will climb into the mid 80s to low 90s for most, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. The higher dewpoints will make if feel a little muggy out, but we will not be hot enough to necessitate any heat headlines. The axis of the aforementioned trough will move through the area Thursday night into Friday morning. This will help push temperatures down into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. A ridge will build into the central US this weekend, bringing WNW flow to the area and seasonable temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2... Most of the area should stay dry today, although a weak shortwave looks to move into central PA, kicking off some isolated showers across the western Finger Lakes later this afternoon into the evening. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out but severe storms are not expected. More widespread rain showers and storms are expected for Thursday into Friday, with 2 different features helping to generate precipitation across portions of our area. First, a shortwave will push into the Mid-Atlantic Thursday morning, kicking off scattered showers and storms across portions of NEPA. Most of the heavier rain looks to stay to the south, but showers and storms may skirt portions of the Wyoming Valley into the southern Catskills starting in the late morning through the afternoon hours. Guidance shows weak CAPE and shear over the area during much of the afternoon, keeping any convection that develops elevated and weak. The cap looks to break later in the afternoon and evening, but the forcing will be east of the area, limiting precipitation. The better chance for strong to isolated severe storms will be across the northern portion of the CWA as a frontal boundary on the leading edge of the trough axis moves into the area late in the afternoon to evening hours. Stronger bulk shear of 25-35kts is modeled to accompany this boundary with modest CAPE around 1000 j/kg. This should kick off some scattered storms, with a few isolated severe storms possible. Damaging winds would be the main threat with these storms. Isolated flash flooding will also be possible as the CAPE over the area looks to be long and skinny, with PWATs in the 1.5-2in range, warm cloud depths around 12k feet and MBE vectors of 5-10kts. These parameters point to slow moving or back building storms with heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding. This threat looks to be the greatest from the late afternoon into the early overnight hours. The frontal boundary looks to push through the area Thursday night into Friday morning, but the timing is currently a little unsure with some models have an early overnight passage, while others push it through late overnight/early Friday morning, slowing down in the late morning/early afternoon as it approaches the NY/PA border. If the passage is towards the later solution, a shortwave moving into the area from western PA will kick off scattered showers and storms across the Twin Tiers and into the Poconos during the afternoon and evening hours. The slow moving frontal boundary near the NY/PA border providing enhanced lift of warm, moist air as the shortwave moves across the region could generate multiple storms with heavy downpours impacting the same areas causing isolated flash flooding. Because of this, a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been issued for this area. Precipitation chances move out of the area by late evening, with high pressure building in for the weekend. Key Message 3... A very strong ridge will build across the central US starting Monday, bringing very hot weather to the area. Some of this heat will propagate along the northern edge of the ridge and slide into our area starting Tuesday. Widespread mid 80s to low 90s will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A front and associated trough may dig into the area after Wednesday, bringing some cooler weather, but confidence in this is low at this time as model guidance is too varied on the timing of the front and when/if the ridge weakens. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR throughout the TAF period. Will have to watch for possible fog at KELM overnight. Also, a MVFR stratus deck may work into KAVP for a few hours as well. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours. Confidence and expected coverage at this time only warrants mention of a VFR shower in the afternoon hours Thursday. Outlook: Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Friday...Cold front could moves in, with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Restrictions possible. Saturday into Monday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTC AVIATION...MWG  677 FXUS61 KPHI 082320 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 720 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for 0Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Humidity returns on Thursday along with potential severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Humidity returns on Thursday along with potential severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. Weak high pressure over western New York and western Pennsylvania slides to the south and east this evening and will be off the Mid- Atlantic coast tonight. Return flow sets up behind the departing high, and a light southerly flow tonight will increase during the day Thursday. Dew points in the mid 60s this evening will increase into the upper 60s tonight, and then into the mid 70s on Thursday. Although temperatures will "only" be in the mid 80s or so, which is right around normal for this time of the year, the heat index will be in the low to mid 90s due to those high dew points. The main concern on Thursday will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. With low pressure approaches from the west and tracks towards the Mid- Atlantic by Thursday evening. A mid-level trough will move into the Northeast with some shortwave energy passing through the Delaware Valley, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey. SBCAPE values will be in excess of 1500 J/kg with PWATS from 2-2.5 inches, highest values from the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, south into Delmarva. 0-6 km shear will be from 25 to 30 kt. The two main threats from severe weather will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather (2 out of 5) for the Delaware Valley south of Philadelphia, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) from around Philadelphia north to Allentown. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, the eastern shores of Maryland, and Delaware, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) for the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. Although some showers and thunderstorms will fire up over far western portions of the forecast area from noon-2pm, the main timing will be from 4pm-10pm across the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. While showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and localized flash flooding are likely for the northern zones as well, the highest impacts in terms of potential severe weather and flash flooding should be focused generally south of Philadelphia. A warm and muggy night with patchy fog developing Thursday night after showers and thunderstorms come to an end by midnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of a cold front moving southward into the area. Similarly to Thursday, moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front, where PWAT values are progged to be in excess of 1.8 inches. This supports that any given shower or storm will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As of now, the majority of our forecast area is highlighted in an MARGINAL risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. In terms of the severe weatherthreat, ML CAPES are expected to reach at least 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values around 30 kt. Given better frontal forcing, there looks to be at least another opportunity for severe weather. As of now, SPC has our entire area highlighted in just a general thunder risk, however some of the MLP guidance indicate higher probabilities especially in terms of damaging winds. It is also worth noting that Friday will be quite sticky outside with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. This will result in heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. We may get close to Heat Advisory criteria in some spots, but basis the current forecast, heat indicies are expected to remain just below advisory criteria. There remains a vast amount of uncertainty with how Saturday will pan out as guidance continues to struggle with how quickly the cold front clears the area. Some guidance slows the progression of the front, keeping more in the way of showers around on Saturday, whereas others show a faster progression, yielding mainly dry weather. As mentioned by the previous shift, opted to stay very close to NBM PoPs for this period, which keeps 10-30% PoPs north, with 30-60% PoPs mainly across south Jersey and the Delmarva. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s. By Sunday and into early next week, guidance is showing an expansive upper level ridge setting up over the northern High Plains. This will yield dry weather and mainly clear skies across the Mid- Atlantic. Temperatures will be around normal for Sunday and Monday, but will swing back above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR initially. MVFR or lower CIGs in stratus developing near dawn. Light S to nearly calm winds. Low confidence. Thursday through Thursday night...Any sub-VFR CIGs become VFR by 18Z. SHRA/TSRA develop after 18Z and may linger through 0Z. Sub- VFR conds in the heaviest SHRA/TSRA, and then sub-VFR conds in BR and/or stratus late Thursday night. Moderate confidence overall. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR with periods of sub- VFR possible. A chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Saturday though Saturday night...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of sub-VFR conditions. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday through Monday...VFR. No significant weather expected. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight through Thursday night. South to southwest winds around 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Thursday afternoon, becoming W 5 to 10 kt Thursday night. Seas 2 to 3 feet. VSBY restrictions in fog possible tonight, then again Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain and gusty winds will impact the waters late Thursday afternoon and evening. Outlook... Friday through Monday...No marine headlines are expected at this time. Winds will largely remain between 5-15 kt through Sunday, with winds up to 20 kt possible on Monday. Seas around 2-4 feet. A chance for showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening through Saturday, with fair weather returning for Sunday and Monday. Rip Currents... For Thursday, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomes more southeasterly. This combination gives a MODERATE risk for the northern NJ beaches, with a LOW risk further south. For Friday, winds turn southwesterly, and the swell weakens. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/MPS AVIATION...DeSilva/MPS/RCM MARINE...DeSilva/MPS/RCM  698 FXUS63 KGID 082320 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 620 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms, a few severe, is expected this evening between mainly 6PM and 3AM. Hail up to the size of half dollars with wind gusts up to near 70MPH will be possible within the strongest storms. - A few more scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night for mainly a few western and southern portions of the area. Hail up to the size of golfballs with wind gusts up to near 60MPH may be possible. - Though a small 10-30% storm chance returns Friday night, the rest of the 7-day forecast period will be favored to remain dry (10-40% chance of >0.1" of precipitation) - Temperatures are expected to warm up over the weekend with at least a 4+ day streak of 90+ degree highs expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight and Thursday... A cold front, currently draped across northern Nebraska, will later be expected to dip southward into much of south central Nebraska this evening and later on into north central Kansas overnight. A few storms will be expected to fire up along this front between mainly 6PM and 3AM as the front drifts southward. In addition, a cluster of scattered storms (recently observed cumulus expanding across northeast Colorado) will later be expected to roll in from off the High Plains. These storms will possibly merge with activity developing along the cold front, expanding the coverage of and extending the time of lingering storms through the early morning hours of Thursday. The latest high-resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) guidance has recently backed precipitation potential off by around 20% with a now a more broad range forecast of 30-70% PoPs across the area for tonight. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST models have come in a bit drier (more scattered storm coverage) and continue to diverge on when and where the best storm potential will come. The HRRR is more aggressive with the earlier convection occurring along the cold front between mainly 5PM and midnight. As result, the HRRR keeps the bulk of the storms mainly north of I-80. The NAMNEST on the other hand is more aggressive with the overnight convection rolling in from the high plains. As result, it keeps a majority of the storms concentrated south of I-80 and later in the night (2-8AM). In reality, the best scenario tonight would likely be a combination of the two scenarios where a few storms do initially form along the front and approach later in the night from the west. Given somewhat favorable conditions for thunderstorm maintenance (1,500-2,5000J/kg of MUCAPE with 25-40kts of bulk shear), it is more than reasonable to suspect that a few of these storms would be able to take on some strong to severe characteristics. Though hail up to the size of half dollars may be possible, the hail threat will mainly fall within the initial storms firing up along the front. The main severe threat tonight, however, will likely be the potential for gusty winds up to near 70MPH, especially within storms racing in from the west. The main uncertainty for severe weather this evening will be if the storms firing along the front earlier in the evening/night inhibit the severe potential for the later storms coming in from the west. There is somewhat of a concern if the convection along the front may undercut the severe threat overnight to a degree, though the presence of a steady 20-30kts low-level jet across north central Kansas may also play a small role. In addition, the merging of these two storms clusters could create an expansive area of heavy downpours. The possibility of 1" per hour rainfall rates (1.5-1.8" PWAT values) mixed in with the potential for multiplewaves of thunderstorm activity could bring meaningful precipitation amounts (up to 1-2+") to a handful of locations (10- 20% of the coverage area). The Weather Prediction Center has also introduced a slight risk of excessive rainfall (15-40% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point) to the full area. Given the overall decrease in expected storm coverage, the flash flood potential has also overall decreased some as well. Beyond the precipitation chances tonight, the light to steady surface winds (5-15MPH) will back from the southerly directions this afternoon to an easterly one overnight. Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will drop highs to the mid 80s to low 90s for Thursday. Though the potential for severe weather returns Thursday night (Marginal risk for western and southern portions of the area), the overall storm coverage may likely be more isolated and concentrated towards far west/south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A few storms, again racing out from off the High Plains just after 10PM, will have to potential to clip a few western/southern portions of the area. These storms, given the time of night, will probably be on a downward trend, leading us to speculate that the severe threat should mostly be more isolated rather than widespread. Friday into Next Week... Though one final low-end chance for storms does lie Friday night (10- 30% chances), the main story Friday into next week will be the heat. Highs Friday through the middle of next week will begin a gradual climb from the mid to upper 80s to the low to mid 90s. This warm up will come as a massive ridge is favored to form across much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions starting on Saturday. This ridging pattern is in good agreement within the long-range ensembles to stick around for most if not all of next week (>80% confidence). The presence of this massive ridge should bring warm, subsiding air to the region that will work to thwart off most of the precipitation potential next week. (The LREF {Long Range Ensemble Forecast} only shows a 10-40% chance for at least 0.1" of precipitation through the week). The main uncertainty at this time will be for how substantial the warmup will become (will highs next week peak in the upper 90s or low 100s?). What does look almost certain will be the presence of a streak of 90+ degree days. The only forecast element that could keep such a streak from taking place would be from a rogue daytime thunderstorm or excessive cloud cover that manages to peak in (not very likely to occur underneath such pattern). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Sub-VFR conditions possible in thunderstorms that may impact KEAR/KGRI through 4-6z. Otherwise VFR conditions are favored through TAF period. Scattered thunderstorms are developing over the area, currently near KGRI but storms may also develop near/over KEAR. Storms will be capable of producing sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds (40-60mph). Storms should exit KGRI/KEAR around 4-6z, first at KEAR then KGRI. SCT-BKN low VFR clouds will linger through the mid-late morning hours before skies clear during the afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected through the overnight hours (outside of storms), with winds becoming northeasterly during the late morning hours on Thursday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Davis  782 FXUS64 KLCH 082321 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 621 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible along the sea breeze this afternoon. - Shower activity is expected to decrease for Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. - A weakness redevelops over the weekend along with deeper tropical like moisture helping to increase shower and thunderstorm activity. - Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.) && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure overhead, providing a light southwest to west flow across the forecast area. Aloft, a weakness remains over the Ark-La-Miss, with weak ridging to the west and east. Area radar shows a few isolated showers and storms ongoing along and south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon, with coverage slowly expanding as we move towards max heating hours. The weakness aloft will provide some additional support for convection this afternoon however, it doesn't look like coverage will be quite that of the last few days. Nevertheless, WPC has once again outlined the entire forecast area within the Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today. With only scattered activity expected this afternoon, the inclusion of this outlook is strictly to cover the possibility of slow moving heavy downpours that could cause very localized flooding issues over more urban areas. Otherwise, it looks like (shocker) another hot and humid afternoon with highs reaching into the low to mid 90s. Tomorrow and Friday, what remains of the weakness aloft continues to break down as ridging to the west and east expand towards each other overhead. As weak ridging become situated across the southern CONUS through the end of the week, it will tamper our daily chance for showers and storms down a bit for a couple of days. While we won't dry out completely, we will see much more sunshine than rain through the next couple of days. Temperature wise, we continue to reach into the low to mid 90s through the afternoon, with heat indices peaking in the mid 100s. By the weekend, POPs ramp up once again as upper ridging shifts west and becomes situated over the Rockies allowing a weakness to develop overhead once again. This weakness aloft together with the seabreeze/diurnal heating will result in more widespread afternoon activity each day from Saturday into early next week. This will keep afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, with max heat indices in the low to mid 100s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered showers and storms continue to taper slowly this late afternoon, with calmer conditions tonight. With exception to some patchy fog, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Surface high pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf through the week. This will keep a light south to southwest flow and low seas in place. Isolated to widely scattered shower and storms will be possible each day, with coverage increasing a bit by the late weekend into early next week as another weakness develops aloft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No fire weather concerns at this time. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected today along the sea breeze, however coverage will decrease Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds in. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...87  664 FXUS64 KMRX 082320 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 720 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 717 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day. - Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning. - A wet pattern will likely be in place this weekend and may pose a more widespread flooding threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently the synoptic pattern consist of weak ridging atop the far southeastern CONUS with an upper low slowly meandering into the mid- Mississippi River Valley. Additionally, a diffuse stationary boundary can be noted on the north and western fringes of the CWA. Isolated to scattered convection has developed in typical summer- time diurnal fashion, and will continue throughout this afternoon and evening. Best coverage is generally expected in vicinity of higher terrain, with slightly lesser chances across valley locations. Latest model derived soundings from CAMs paint MLCAPE between 1000- 2000 J/kg with PWAT values 1.5 to 1.8 inches. The fairly moist profiles are between the 75th and 90th percentiles per KBNA sounding climatology and limit DCAPE values to 400-700 J/kg. The lower DCAPE values will help to limit downburst potential but the anomalous moisture availability and LCL-EL mean wind nearly parallel to the boundary could lead to isolated flooding with any training convection. Overall, a gusty winds and localized flooding the main concerns. The aforementioned upper low will continue to translate east Thursday with the surface boundary expected to be draped west to east just to our south. The thermodynamic environment will remain fairly persistent, along with the primary hazards of gusty winds and localized flooding with the strongest activity. As we transition into Friday and continue into the weekend, an upper level trough will amplify over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Region. Clusters of storms may develop beneath slightly enhanced mid to upper level flow Friday afternoon. GFS soundings depict an elevated mixed layer across southern portions of the forecast area during this time, which could enhance the potential for a few strong to severe gusts making it to the surface. Additionally, both ensemble and deterministic guidance agree that PWAT values will increase to just north of two inches Friday onward. Guidance hints that a boundary will be draping towards the area late Friday into Saturday and could result in a prolonged period with showers and storms tapping into the anomalous PWATs. Flash flooding threat likely to continue, if not increase, into the weekend. Though, the expected location of the greatest axis of precip still remains a little fuzzy. A Flood Watch may be needed with future forecast packages. The front will work south of the region with decreasing chances of precip as we head into the new work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 With little change to the air mass across the TN Valley over the past 24 hours, the TAFs will generally follow persistence. TRI is expected to have low clouds develop late tonight, dropping to low MVFR but possibly IFR at times. TYS has a lower chance of MVFR cigs so a TEMPO will be mentioned there. CHA will stay VFR but a brief MVFR period cannot be ruled out. Showers and storms will develop in the area tomorrow afternoon, but confidence on their location and timing is too low to mention yet in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 89 72 90 / 10 40 30 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 71 87 / 30 60 60 90 Oak Ridge, TN 69 87 70 86 / 30 60 60 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 67 84 / 50 70 60 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS AVIATION...DGS  813 FXUS63 KLSX 082321 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 621 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe Thursday and Friday afternoons with damaging winds the primary threat along with locally heavy rainfall. - Mostly dry weather with temperatures slightly above average are forecast Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Dry weather is forecast tonight with light winds and seasonably warm temperatures. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the mid-Missouri Valley and head east/southeast late tonight into early Thursday morning. This activity should weaken gradually with time as it enters central/northeast Missouri due to an abating low-level jet and lesser instability to work with. A remnant MCV is likely to remain from this morning convection and work eastward. By early-mid afternoon, this feature should help develop renewed convection downstream, mostly likely along/east of the Mississippi River. Instability will increase with time, and combined with some enhanced (~30 knots) effective shear downstream of the aforementioned MCV, at least a few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur. Damaging winds will be the main threat along with locally heavy rainfall from roughly 2 PM until 10 PM. While the severe threat likely will wane by mid-late evening, the low-level jet does ramp up. Enhanced low-level moisture convergence on the nose of the jet should lead to fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms across southeast Missouri and far southwest Illinois. These storms may tend to train (especially if they stay elevated) over the same areas so the threat for isolated flash flooding may increase. Precipitable water values are expected to be high, generally above 1.75" or closer to the 95th percentile of climatology. Flash flood guidance though is also real high (>3"/3 hr), and the low-level jet does veer about 30 degrees from 0600 to 1200 UTC Friday. This should help shift convection equatorward overnight, lessening the duration of accumulating rainfall. Therefore, will hold off on a flash flood watch for now. Gosselin && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Friday - Saturday Night) Forecast uncertainty increases after Thursday night. Deterministic model guidance is hinting at another midlevel shortwave trough (or convectively-induced MCV) moving eastward in zonal flow aloft. The timing/track/strength of this feature is unknown, but additional showers and thunderstorms should develop by Friday afternoon. Similar to Thursday afternoon, there should be plenty of instability and just enough shear in place for the threat of damaging wind gusts. At this early juncture, the best chances of thunderstorms and severe weather would be across southeast Missouri. This is where the effective frontal boundary is most likely to be located, but the exact location will of course depend heavily on the evolution of convection Thursday night. Friday night into Saturday morning may have a subsequent round of showers and thunderstorms as the low-level jet increases. Exactly where and how organized this round will be is highly uncertain, but I would tend to favor southeast Missouri and points south. Each preceding round of convection may tend to shift the effective front farther south and deterministic guidance (especially coarser resolution) tends to be too far north with these subsequent rounds. If parts of southeast Missouri and adjacent southwest Illinois do end up receiving additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, the flash flood threat would increase though at this time range there is too much uncertainty to say whether or not any given location will see multiple rounds. (Sunday - Next Wednesday) A record-breaking mid/upper level ridge is forecast to amplify across the northern Plains late this weekend into early next week with deep northeasterly flow across the mid-Mississippi Valley. A shift to dry weather along with temperatures running slightly above normal seems likely during this period of time. There is some uncertainty with the exact strength/placement of the mid/upper level ridge heading into the middle of next week. One cluster of the 500-hPa height pattern has a more elongated west-east ridge (~25% of LREF members) over our area. If this scenario were to occur, highs more into the mid 90s would be expected. However, even in that scenario, surface dewpoints should tend to lower with time and heat index values likely would stay largely below 100 degrees. On the other end of the spectrum, there is a cluster (~10% of members) that has a much deeper trough moving across the Great Lakes/northeast. This scenario would potentially lead to much cooler (highs mid 80s) temperatures. The current forecast lies between these two opposite ends of the spectrum, and more toward the middle two clusters which comprises a large majority of LREF members. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions continue overnight with light winds expected. The remnants of a thunderstorm complex to our west is expected to move into the region tomorrow morning, but convective activity should dissipate before it arrives. However, renewed convection is expected to begin as it arrives near the Mississippi River Thursday afternoon. These thunderstorms are most likely to affect the St louis area TAF locations while other areas are unlikely to be affected. Outside of this, conditions will remain VFR. Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  814 FXUS63 KUNR 082321 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 521 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Unsettled through Thursday as a series of disturbances move through the region -Sufficient moisture and shear is in place to support a few strong to severe storms -Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Tuesday) Issued at 1103 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impulse filled westerly flow remains in place over the FA. Daily chances for thunderstorms can be expected with strong to severe storms possible at times, through Thursday. Weak impulse will advect through the SW third this afternoon and support TS clusters. Ample LL moisture in place combined with sufficient deep layer shear will support a few strong to severe storms, with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, mainly INVOF of the Black Hills. Given ML CAPE of 1-2 KJ/KG, deep bulk layer shear of 35 to 40 knots expect isolated supercells to be possible, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Storms will carry SE across the SW FA through the evening. More storms are expected Thur as sufficient LL moisture will be in place with weak stability and another impulse. Best chances for storms will be in the afternoon/evening. Similar CAPE/shear parameters will be in place to again support a few strong to severe storms, esp over the SW third. Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend, with dry and hot conds expected. Hot temps around 35C at h85 with close to 6000m H5 heights over WY, will offer record to near record highs well into the 100s with some areas seeing readings around 110 on portions of the Plains, esp Sunday and Monday. However, given how dry the BL will be with dewpoints falling into the 20s in the west to the 50s east, apparent T's will only top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s, highest on the SD Plains, supporting adv level numbers. Ridge begins to retrograde the middle of next week, with storm chances returning as the active northern periphery of the ridge settles back south. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 519 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorms will continue move across northeast Wyoming and western/southwestern South Dakota through the evening and overnight hours. Hail, frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic winds can be expected with any stronger convective cores. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions are also expected around any heavier precipitation cores. Conditions will begin to improve between 09/10-12z as storms diminish and move out of the region. Another round of storms will begin to develop over northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota late Thursday morning, lasting through the remainder of the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...Schultz  843 FXUS64 KBMX 082323 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 623 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 622 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 - Thunderstorms: Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for now through the beginning of next week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 243 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 In the lower levels this afternoon, a stationary boundary is situated well to our northwest and north, from AR into TN/KY. It will meander a bit through Thursday before fizzling out. In the upper levels, there is a weakening upper low over the Mid MS River Valley that is expected to open up and be absorbed into the main zonal flow to the north of it by late Thursday. Through the short term that will help to focus our diurnal convection generally to the northern third of Central Alabama with more isolated activity in the south. Also in the upper levels, flat ridging over the SW US coast is expected to expand across the Western US this weekend. Guidance has a shortwave progressing eastward out of it Friday that will allow for troughing to build across portions of Eastern Conus this weekend. That with plenty of low level onshore flow moisture will allow for continued increased storm chances for this weekend. In addition, the upper flow will in turn help to nudge a rare July surface front southward. There is a medium chance that this front may have enough push to get through Central Alabama during the first part of next week in the Monday and Tuesday time frame. The extra cloud cover and rain chances will help to keep temperature down a couple of degrees. However, we are not expecting any major cool down at this time as the boundary may stall and push back northward by the middle of next week. 08 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 A weak upper level low is expected to slowly move to our north through tomorrow. This will help provide some support for thunderstorm development during the afternoon on Thursday. Otherwise, generally a diurnal pattern for winds is expected as low level ridging remains in place. Generally light to calm winds overnight, increasing to 5-7kts during the day. Given the extra forcing from the upper low tomorrow, I'll include Prob30s for TSRA at all sites due to the convection being more widespread compared to Wednesday. 25/Owen && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue. Thunderstorms will remain in the forecast during the afternoon hours, with this activity resembling the usual, diurnally driven storms we're used to seeing in the summer. Given the higher MinRH values, and afternoon thunderstorm chances, fire weather concerns will remain low through the beginning of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 91 72 91 / 20 50 30 50 Anniston 72 90 73 90 / 20 40 30 50 Birmingham 74 91 74 92 / 20 40 30 50 Tuscaloosa 73 91 74 92 / 20 40 20 30 Calera 73 94 73 95 / 20 40 30 40 Auburn 74 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 30 Montgomery 75 93 74 93 / 10 40 20 20 Troy 74 93 73 92 / 10 40 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...25/Owen  840 FXUS64 KLZK 082323 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 623 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon but with less coverage than days past. Rain chances decrease even more Thursday and Friday. - Temperatures will remain very warm but at or near seasonal averages. Heat advisories may be needed over the east Thursday and possibly Friday which will be the warmest days of the week. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as several upper level systems move through. Precipitation will not be restricted to just the hottest time of the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 |Not many value added changes to make to the current forecast this morning as guidance has remained consistent with previous thinking. As expected, convection did fire up Tuesday afternoon and quickly dissipated after sunset. Conditions across the FA this morning are generally clear with temperatures currently a few degrees warmer versus previous nights and range from the lower to mid 70s. The upper level feature that largely drove the convection the past few days is now over western Tennessee and slowly moving away. Any convection today will once again be diurnally driven but the CAMS guidance shows more sporadic coverage and a broadbrush 20% should suffice. With less cloud coverage/precipitation chances in the forecast, widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected. Convection coverage will diminish Thursday/Friday as upper level high pressure tries to nose in resulting in the warmest days of the week with highs well in the 90s for everyone. No heat related headlines will be needed today but heat index values over our eastern zones may require a heat advisory Thursday and possibly Friday. Precipitation chances increase this weekend as a messy pattern develops allowing several weak shortwaves to move through the prevailing flow. Moisture remains elevated and precipitation chances will not be restricted to just the afternoon through early evening hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances. Early next week, the upper pattern begins to morph with a strong upper level ridge developing over the 4 corners and into the northern plains. If this does come to fruition, precipitation chances go back down with NE upper flow developing but temperatures will remain quite warm && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Widespread VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with the exception being a t'storm wandering near a terminal or two. Scattered t'storm activity across the central portion of the state is expected to decrease as the sun sets this evening. Another round of afternoon convection is possible in Northern AR tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in placement and coverage remains low at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 73 94 78 / 20 0 30 10 Camden AR 92 73 95 76 / 30 10 0 0 Harrison AR 90 74 93 78 / 20 0 20 20 Hot Springs AR 92 75 94 77 / 20 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 92 76 95 78 / 20 20 10 0 Monticello AR 91 75 94 77 / 20 20 10 0 Mount Ida AR 91 74 92 77 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 89 72 92 77 / 20 0 20 20 Newport AR 91 74 96 78 / 30 0 20 20 Pine Bluff AR 91 74 95 77 / 20 10 10 0 Russellville AR 94 75 95 79 / 20 10 20 10 Searcy AR 92 73 95 77 / 20 10 10 10 Stuttgart AR 91 75 95 78 / 30 10 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...78  889 FXUS61 KBTV 082323 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 723 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... 1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. 2. A warming trend and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front passes through the region late in the day tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing some showers and thunderstorms. Before then, a very weak area of low pressure will track up the Saint Lawrence Valley tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Most of the rain during the day will fall along a stationary warm front oriented west to east along and north of the international border. Thankfully, the synoptic forcing will be weak and the atmosphere will lack some components for heavy rainfall, so any flooding remains unlikely despite a potentially problematic synoptic setup. The rain will fall in multiple rounds that are moving and have gaps in between them. These showers and storms will move southeast through the region later in the afternoon and in the evening. In northern areas, 0-6 KM shear looks to reach 30-35 KT, while it looks to remain well under 30 KT farther south. CAPE values look to range in the 500-750 J range where clouds associated with this initial rain do not remain in place. This leads to a marginal threat for severe weather, where isolated strong to severe storms are possible, mainly across northern areas. However, poor lapse rates and dry air aloft will further lower the severe threat. The main threat would be damaging winds. Behind the front, cooler and drier air infiltrates the region on Friday and will remain in place for the weekend. High temperatures this weekend look to be in the upper 70s and 80s, while lows should be in the 50s to around 60. Humidity will be relatively low and dry weather will prevail through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging will build into the Northern Plains early next week while an upper trough exits to our east. This will place northern NY and New England under northwest flow. Models continue to indicate a couple of weak fronts/surface troughs to ride through this northwest flow and cross our region. However, timing varies quite a bit from model and run to run, leading to considerable uncertainty. Both moisture and warmth will increase through this period, with highs approaching 90F and dewpoints rising into the 60s. With this in mind, any thunderstorms could be on the strong side if any boundaries/fronts happen to push across the region during peak heating. The exact timing is difficult to pin point this far out though, especially given the differences in model solutions, so have stayed with NBM/WPC forecast for now, with 25-40% PoPs each afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Generally VFR conditions are expected over the next several hours. South or southwest winds may remain at KBTV and KMSS, but winds will trend light and variable for most. Just off the ground, it seems there will be some wind that should prevent fog, but they slacken some near KMPV. Crossover temperatures will be tough to reach, and so radiation fog seems less likely, tonight, and mentioned just a 3SM TEMPO from 08z-11z there. A frontal boundary is expected to shift south after 18z with showers and thunderstorms, especially near the international border. The feature will be slow to sag south, and so it may not reach KMPV or KRUT until near or after 00z. PROB30s for TSRA were noted then for KMSS, KSLK, KPBG, and KBTV. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Isolated TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance TSRA, Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Hastings AVIATION...Haynes  937 FXUS66 KSGX 082324 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 424 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A strong area of high pressure will bring hot weather through the middle of the week for areas away from the coast. Slight cooling occurs by the weekend as high pressure moves to the northeast. In its wake, monsoonal moisture moves into the region on Sunday into at least the first half of next week. This will bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances to inland areas with greater humidity for the entire region. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSION... It's getting warm out there...highs by late morning have eclipsed 100 degrees in parts of the lower deserts. A lovely walk outside our office was had, but that early July sun angle definitely made those 70s feel quite toasty! Moderate (level 3 of 5) to Major (level 4 of 5) HeatRisk is now expected for inland regions through Friday, as the heat alerts have been extended one more day. We would like to remind everyone to practice good heat safety: drink plenty of water, seek shade, and take breaks if working/spending time outside, and check on family, friends, and neighbors. Hiking in the mountains is also discouraged! During this time period, high temperatures in the lower desert will be near 115 degrees and near 100 to 110 in the high desert. Areas of the Inland Empire will warm up to 105 degrees each day as well, with plentiful 90s in the SD/RIV County mountains and inland valleys. Low temperatures will cool off pretty well for most areas, but the lower deserts will remain warm in the upper 70s and 80s. The area of high pressure over the region this week will move to the northeast by this weekend. This will give the opportunity for the flow aloft to move in from the southeast, bringing in greater monsoonal moisture to the region in the form of higher humidity and chances for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday will remain dry, where humidity will first start to increase. Models indicate PWAT's peaking by Sunday through Monday, along with a noted indication of increased CAPE across inland areas. Southeast flow aloft becomes more apparent by Sunday (possibly as early as early Sunday morning), where slight chances of rain begin to be introduced for parts of the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across primarily the mountains and deserts, locally into the eastern parts of the valleys in Inland Empire and San Diego County, through at least the middle of next week. The forecast shows the highest chances of storms on Monday afternoon across our mountain areas. With this flow pattern, higher humidity will remain across the entire region, including coastal areas, for this weekend into the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... 082320Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 700-1200 ft MSL will start developing along the immediate coast around 04Z. Low clouds are expected to increase in coverage and push inland up to 20 miles 07-09Z. Low clouds expected to clear 16-18Z. .Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CO  047 FXUS63 KLOT 082327 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 627 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances return Thursday, with the potential for localized heavy rainfall Thursday afternoon and evening. Strongest storms may also be capable of localized gusty winds, mainly south of I-80. - Mainly dry, warmer weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A warm, dry afternoon is underway across the forecast area as an area of weak surface high pressure drifts slowly southeast of the cwa. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms were noted across southeast WI, where west-southwesterly return flow has brought a return of low-70s surface dew points, though drier low-levels and warmer mid-level temps across our local area should provide enough of a cap to minimize any convective threat here for the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase across northern IL toward daybreak Thursday however, as an area of thunderstorms currently developing across IA/MN/WI eventually approaches the area. High-res CAM guidance continues to be in good agreement that this area of convection will be in a weakening/decaying mode by that time, though may push an outflow boundary into the area after 1-3 AM. Given the diurnal instability minima during the early morning, guidance is not very excited about convective development along the remnant outflow, though isolated to widely-scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible generally along/north of the I-88 corridor especially by late morning as daytime warming eventually destabilizes the boundary layer. Scattered thunderstorm chances do increase from midday Thursday into the evening, as the synoptic cold front slowly pushes southeast into the forecast area along with some support from an approaching mid-level short wave. This wave appears weaker than some model runs had been depicting over the past few days, resulting in weaker mid-level westerly flow (20-25 kts as opposed to ~40 kts in some runs previously). Overall weaker forcing, and relatively poor forecast mid-level lapse rates, appear to be responsible for the sparser convective footprint in current CAM guidance across the cwa. There is still some support in current CAM runs for a remnant MCV (from an MCS forecast to develop along the NE/KS border later tonight) to approach the area later in the afternoon/evening which looks to yield somewhat greater shower/thunderstorm coverage during that time. Similar to earlier runs however, the exact track (while perhaps a bit south of previous forecasts) remains of somewhat lower confidence. In any case, these slow-moving storms will provide a threat of heavy rainfall, with localized amounts of 1-2" possible. Weaker mid-level flow (Corfidi propagation vectors potentially 5-10 mph to the ESE), precipitable water values approaching 2" and deep warm-cloud depths all support the likelihood of torrential downpours with some of these storms. Soil moisture, river/creek levels and storm water retention facilities continue to run quite high in portions of the cwa where repeated heavy rains occurred over the past week - especially across portions of the central and southern Chicago metro area. This raises concern for any additional localized heavy rainfall to potentially cause renewed flooding. With this in mind, have collaborated with WPC to include appropriate portions of our forecast area in their Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook in a slight (level 2 of 4) risk. The surface cold front is progged to continue to work southeast across the forecast area Thursday night, eventually slowing further and becoming nearly stationary across downstate IL/IN on Friday. This should allow showers and lingering storms to diminish from NW to SE Thursday night, while surface high pressure builds across the upper Midwest. Drier east-northeast low-level flow will bring drier and more stable conditions to much of northeast IL/northwest IN Friday, while isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorm chances linger mainly off to the south of I-80 during the diurnally favored afternoon and early evening hours. Diurnal precip chances should continue to shift south over the weekend, as the Great Lakes surface high settles a little farther southward. Longer-range ensemble guidance continues to depict an upper- level ridge building eastward across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region later this weekend into early/mid next week. This looks to support a period of dry and warmer weather conditions (highs in the low-90s in many spots) in the extended period. Unlike last week however, current ensembles indicate heat within a less humid air mass. As usual on the north/northeast periphery of an upper ridge, We'll need to continue to monitor the potential for thunderstorm clusters to slide into our area, especially toward the middle of next week as a short wave is progged to rotate across Ontario and parts of the Lakes. Ratzer && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Forecast concerns include... Chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening. Wind shift to northeast late Thursday afternoon/early evening. Possible mvfr cigs Thursday night. There will be a chance of showers toward daybreak Thursday morning across northwest IL, including RFD and along the IL/WI state line. Some of these showers may move across the terminals during the mid/late morning hours on Thursday but overall coverage looks to be low. This shower activity may also be in a weakening phase. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, but confidence is low for coverage. Made no changes to the current prob timing but its possible that some thunderstorms may lingering into the early evening Thursday and timing may need refinement with later forecasts. Lingering showers will also be possible Thursday evening. Ifr cigs/vis along with brief heavy rain will be possible with any of the thunderstorms on Thursday. But there is trend for at least scattered mvfr level clouds Thursday evening with possible mvfr cigs Thursday night into Friday morning. Southwest winds will continue tonight turning more westerly on Thursday and then a cold front will shift winds to the northeast later Thursday afternoon or early Thursday evening. The timing of this wind shift will be dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing, which could push the front through faster if coverage is more scattered during the afternoon. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for INZ001-INZ002- INZ010-INZ011. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  997 FXUS63 KMQT 082325 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 725 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers continue and/or redevelop this afternoon and evening, becoming most widespread over the southern half of the UP. A couple of stronger storms resulting in gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out over the south-central UP. - Temperatures will remain closer to normal through the mid-week, and start to increase by the weekend. Highs around 90 are becoming more likely Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Early afternoon water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show quasi- zonal flow over the upper Great Lakes with a good deal of coincident moisture, sampled by 12Z KMPX RAOB with a 1.71 in PWAT. Upstream vorticity maxima are located over SW Ontario and the western Dakotas. Subtle NE/SW oriented low-level wind shift boundary is located roughly from western Marquette County through central Gogebic County. It is upon this boundary that we will have to watch for convective redevelopment this afternoon. With weak midlevel lapse rates, any instability will have to be generated from diurnal heating, which is a question mark given the extensive cloud cover across the region. There are some breaks in the cloud cover, and SBCAPE around the WI border region could approach 1000 J/kg should these breaks continue. With strong effective bulk shear around 40 kt, some more organized convection cannot be ruled out from mid- afternoon into the evening, especially for Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta Counties, where strong wind gusts would be the main threat. Given the moist atmosphere and tendency for the low-level boundary to be parallel to the cloud- layer winds, some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, exemplified by the 12Z HREF LPMM showing values in excess of 2" in 6 hours (representing possible local max amounts). Upstream vorticity maxima continue to push through tonight, allowing the low-level boundary and deeper moisture to settle south of the area. While showers and a few storms could linger over Menominee County for the first part of the night, high pressure building from the north will result in dry weather elsewhere with patchy fog possible. Synoptic-scale subsidence is favored for Thu/Fri with seasonable temps. This weekend into early next week, anomalous midlevel anticyclone over the Four Corners region will build into the northern Plains by early next week. Impressive 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam are modeled by early next week over the northern Plains, +2 to +3 sigma as we approach the hottest time of the year. 850 mb temps in the low to possibly mid-20s (C) are similarly impressive. The upshot is growing confidence in a period of highs approaching or exceeding 90F Sunday through Tuesday. It does appear that humidity will be less of an additive factor to the apparent temps than the previous heat spell at the end of June/early July, as low-level trajectories will have more of a westerly/downsloping component off the high plains. Given the lack of deep-layer moisture and positioning downstream of the apex of the ridge, convective potential is fairly low until probably Tuesday, when there are indications of a possible backdoor front/ridge rider. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 While skies have largely cleared out at IWD and CMX, expect a deterioration to MVFR and then IFR from around 04-07Z, as fog develops over the region. At SAW, ceilings continue to drop to IFR at times, but IFR really settles in over the next few hours with fog development. LIFR visiblity eventually becomes possible at SAW as well as CMX after 06Z. IFR/LIFR lingers through the rest of thenight, then after sunrise, IWD and CMX quickly lift to MVFR and then VFR. Restrictions may linger longer at SAW, but VFR returns by late morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure building over the lake in the wake of a weak frontal boundary will maintain light winds through at least Saturday. Rain showers may lead to areas of fog through at least Thursday morning. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out this evening, especially closer to the shoreline, but overall potential is low. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for LSZ162-263>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thompson AVIATION...LC MARINE...Thompson  055 FXUS64 KBRO 082327 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 627 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 114 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 * Hot summer conditions continue through the week. Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk each day, mainly in the Valley becoming more widespread this weekend. Heat indices will climb to between 100 and 110 degrees each day. * Daily rain and thunderstorm chances will increase from 10-25% Wednesday/Thursday to 25-40% Friday/Saturday. While severe weather is not expected, any storms that develop are capable of heavy to torrential rainfall, gusty winds and small hail. * There is generally a low risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Our region is currently sandwiched between an area of upper level low pressure across Central Mexico and another area of upper level low across the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley. In other words, Deep South Texas is situated within a narrow corridor of upper level ridge. Latest suite of hi-res and global guidance remain in agreement that the generally benign weather should continue through Thursday morning, with shower and thunderstorms coverage remaining isolated to widely scattered and transient in nature. Earlier this morning, composite radar and visible satellite shows an area of disorganized convection moving northwards from Tamaulipas and falling apart as it approaches the international border. Surface obs also indicate drier air from the top of the boundary layer mixing down, with mostly to partly sunny skies prevailing away from the coast and dew points falling into the low 70s from upper 70s. PWAT values are about 1.8 inches, which is around the 75th percentile of SPC sounding climatology for our area. While there is negligible shear to get storms organized, any storms that do develop is capable of locally heavy downpours, gusty winds and even small hail. Otherwise, chance of showers and thunderstorms increase from 10-25 percent today/Thursday to 25-40 percent for Friday/Saturday. This is because a surge of tropical moisture looks to approach our region from the southeast by Thursday and certainly into Friday. PWATs increase to between 2 to 2.2 inches, which is 90-95th percentile of sounding climatology for the Brownsville, TX upper air site. Currently, there are no excessive rainfall outlooks from WPC for our area due to low confidence in flash flooding but this is something to monitor in the coming days. 1-hour Flash Flood Guidance across the RGV is quite high, with 2.5 to 3.5 inches per hour according to WGRFC owing to the fact that it has been over three weeks since our last widespread rainfall. One thing to note is that while the official forecast might indicate a lack of area wide significant rainfall, such an environment is capable of producing highly efficient rainfall rates with locally quick couple of inches of rainfall in just 30 to 45 minutes. It is almost impossible to pinpoint exactly where ahead of time, however, given the isolated to widely scattered nature of the showers and thunderstorms. In the absence of shear, the main triggers for locally heavy rainfall and isolated storms will be the sea breeze and local outflow boundaries, which can be quite messy in a weakly forced environment. Bottom line, if you do have outdoor plans, please keep an eye to the sky and be ready to go indoors if thunder roars. Drier weather looks to return for Sunday into early next week. Early indications are that rain chances would increase towards middle part of next week as a cold front approaches from the north but confidence is low this far out. Looking at the CPC 6-10 day outlook, there is a 40-50 percent probability of above normal rainfall and 33-50 percent probability of above normal temperatures for our CWA. Typical mid-summer temperatures into the mid to upper 90s for most inland locations continue, with a cooler beach and warmer brush country. Expect a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through much of the forecast period, with brief relief where clouds, showers, or thunderstorms can develop. Combined with the oppressive humidity with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, heat index values are expected to top out in the 105-110 range away from the coast. Long period swell increases into the weekend and early next week offshore, potentially bringing a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents along the lower Texas coast. Astronomical tides build this weekend as we near the New Moon, which may narrow already narrow beaches at high tide cycles this weekend into next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 00Z TAF cycle. Gusty winds to 25 kts this evening diminish following sunset. Winds increase yet again late Thursday morning, with southeasterly gusts 20-25 kts. Thursday afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms heading west/northwest with heavy rain and lightning are possible along the seabreeze. This may temporarily reduce visibility and ceiling heights to MVFR to LIFR if any showers pass over a site. && .MARINE... Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Light to moderate south-southeasterly winds continue across the coastal waters through most of the forecast period with strong high pressure northwest of the Gulf. The only exception will be during periods of thunderstorms, where brief periods of strong wind gusts along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible especially during the afternoon hours. Expect an afternoon chop each day on the bay, with Gulf seas of generally 2 to 3 feet, gradually building towards 3 to 4 feet late this weekend into next week with longer period swells. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 93 79 93 / 0 20 30 30 HARLINGEN 75 94 76 94 / 0 20 20 30 MCALLEN 77 97 79 97 / 0 20 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 97 77 97 / 0 20 0 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 81 87 / 0 30 40 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 91 78 91 / 0 20 30 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...88-Chai LONG TERM....88-Chai AVIATION...69-HK  277 FXUS63 KGRR 082331 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 731 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slow moving front brings rain tonight and Thursday - Upper High builds in early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Slow moving front brings rain tonight and Thursday Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front have shown a weakening trend last couple hours as they move over Lake Michigan and we do not expect significant rain or thunder until closer to midnight as the front sags in from the northwest. Severe and excessive rainfall threats are low overnight as the front moves through with limited instability, shear and deep moisture, but the southern zones could see some resurgent convection on Thursday morning. With deeper moisture pooling south of the front, any training of thunderstorms could bring minor flooding. Showers could linger through Friday afternoon across the southern zones as the front becomes parallel to the upper flow and slows down or stalls. - Upper High builds in early next week Large scale subsidence and drying begins over the weeknight as an upper high builds across the Northern Plains and edges into Lower Michigan. Expect a spell of hot and dry weather for early next week before heights fall as an upper trough amplifies across eastern Canada. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Main change this update was to add a bit more detail after 12Z with prevailing groups of precipitation instead of PROB30s. Rain showers seem increasingly likely during this time but there is some question regarding thunder potential earlier in the day prior to maximum diurnal destabilization. The most plausible scenario is needing a brief mention of prevailing thunder at LAN/JXN...and possibly BTL as well...towards afternoon. Given that this is too far out to assign large probabilities to, have omitted that level of detail for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy downpours will be moving southeast across Lake Michigan tonight into Thursday morning. Otherwise, conditions will continue relatively tranquil into the weekend. As high pressure builds in on Thursday into Friday, north winds could gust to 20 knots, otherwise winds should remain at 15 knots or less. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ050-056-057- 064-065-071. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...TJT MARINE...Ostuno  423 FXUS61 KAKQ 082332 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 732 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight Risk for severe weather has been added for the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore for Thursday. Updated Marine Discussion, no significant marine forecast changes && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)Showers and thunderstorms persist this afternoon potentially leading to isolated Flash Flooding and perhaps a strong to severe wind gust. 2) Slightly warmer summertime temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. 3) Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 339 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. Afternoon weather analysis shows weak zonal flow aloft across the eastern half of the United States. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front has been noted far south of the area and is currently in NC. Behind the front, a modest warm and moist airmass is in place with temperatures in the low to middle 80s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. This environment is favorable for showers and thunderstorms that have already to begun to initiate along a secondary boundary that is draped across NE NC and stretching up along the route-15 corridor. This boundary will be the most favorable area for a storm to produce strong to severe downbursts as the storms will struggle to maintain themselves off the boundary due to the weak synoptics in place. In addition, very isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out given a moist environment in place with PWATS between 1.9-2.2" and MLcape values between 1500-2000J/kg. Again the most favorable area would be along the boundary where storms can initiate and potentially train over the same area. For tonight, the showers and storms will decrease in coverage as day time heating is lost. Areas that receive rain could see the potential for patchy fog development tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. Models continue to hint on a slightly stronger mid/upper level flow Thursday and Friday. A 500mb trough is forecasted to be 30-35kt by Thursday afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave, with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave. With the upper levels strengthening and strong diurnal heating, a strong to severe wind gust cannot be ruled out each day. For the Thursday severe threat, the 12z CAMs have hinted on much stronger convection occuring over the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. This makes sense as it is best colocated with strong instability and the left exit region of the weak jet steak. These areas could also see the highest potential of localized flash flooding as storms have the potential to train over the sameareas. Friday continues to remain questionable as downsloping will occur giving the storms less coverage. In addition to the storms, temperatures are progged to climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. These warm temps mixed with high dews will allow for heat indices to climb in the upper 90 to lower 100s. The best place for heat indices to reach 105F would be along the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound. With such low coverage of the 105 heat indices, no Heat Advisories has been issued at this time. KEY MESSAGE 3...Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms chances continue through Saturday as a cold front pushed through the area. By the end of the weekend and into next week models hint on a drier patterns as high pressure returns to the area. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday, before a warming trend commences Tuesday into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 732 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions have return to most terminals aside from ECG for the time being. This will likely be brief due to the expected return of MVFR (PHF, ORF) to IFR (RIC) CIGs overnight. SBY and ECG may remain VFR for most of the night, but will continue to monitor this. There is a chance that some BR could sneak into RIC overnight. Conditions should start to improve tomorrow morning through the early afternoon, though the chance of storms starts to increase by mid- late afternoon, especially at SBY and RIC. Confidence was not high enough to include mention of storms due to uncertainty regarding timing right now, but may be added in the next few TAF updates. Winds will remain E-SE this evening, then become more southerly by tomorrow morning. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms return Thursday, with the probability 20% or less by Friday (better chances N/NW of an RIC-SBY line), then 40-60% by Saturday, and less than 30% Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected this week. E-NE 10-15 kt winds are expected through the rest of today. - The risk of thunderstorms is lower today but increases again Thursday and Friday. Benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this afternoon are E-NE at 10-15 kt on the north side of a slow moving backdoor cold front. Winds are expected to diminish slightly and shift out of the S-SE overnight at the front lifts north. Seas will be around 3 ft during this time and around 4 ft 20+ nm offshore. S-SE winds prevail into the early morning Thursday before shifting out of the W-SW during the afternoon and into Friday with 2- 4 ft seas. Winds swing around to the N-NW Saturday and then NE Sunday. Daily chances for storms are anticipated through the week, however, the chance this afternoon is comparatively lower than the past few days. Chances for more widespread storms, some strong to severe, increase Thursday and Friday as the cold front progresses north. SMWs will be issued as necessary. A moderate rip current risk is forecast today due to nearshore 3 ft waves and choppy surf. A low risk returns for the rest of the week. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed tomorrow for some additional calibration. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET AVIATION...HET/NB MARINE...SW/AGK EQUIPMENT...  413 FXUS64 KEWX 082332 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Low rain chances for the rest of today and Thursday, but increasing again Friday through at least middle next week - Daytime heat mainly in the 90s continues into next week with heat index values reaching into the 100-107 range for many areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast for South Central Texas for the rest of this afternoon. Highs are anticipated to reach the mid to upper 90s for the most part. Heat index values are likely to range from 100 to 107. Rain chances are limited across the local area through this evening. However, a few locations along and east of Highway 281 could experience a quick shower or thunderstorm late this afternoon. A clear night is in store across South Central Texas with overnight lows in 70s. Drier weather conditions are forecast for South Central Texas on Thursday with less than 10 percent probability of rain. Highs are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 90s across most locations with heat index values in the 100 to 107 along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Another clear night is forecast for Thursday night with overnight lows in the mid 70s for the most part. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A weather pattern change takes place on Friday and continues into Saturday. The subtropical ridge stays over the four corners region while an inverted upper level trough lingers over the Rio Grande Plains through the period. With pwats at 2+ inches over the Coastal Plains, Interstate 35, and the Hill Country, we are forecasting scattered shower and thunderstorm activity (30 to 50 percent probability of rain) across those areas. Slow moving storms could produce heavy downpours and 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in a short period of time. Also, shower and storm activity could shift to the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau late afternoons into the early evenings through the period. As far as the day time high temperatures for Friday and Saturday, they remain the in the 90s with heat index values ranging from 100 to 107 along and east of the I-35 corridor. Weather conditions continue unsettled on Sunday into the middle of next week with rain chances for most of South Central Texas as outflow boundaries move from central Texas into the local area, a slow moving inverted upper level trough, and sea breeze enhanced convective activity. Dry weather returns on Thursday as the subtropical high takes control. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR cigs expected throughout the forecast period at all sites, Models have backed off on possibility of MVFR so have kept mention out of this TAF package for now. Winds should calm down overnight before ramping back up during the day. Winds will be out of the south around 10-15 knots with gusts over 20 knots expected for all I-35 Terminals. For KDRT sustained winds of 12-18 knots with gusts perhaps approaching and exceeding 25 knots at times can be expected during the day Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 98 77 95 / 10 0 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 97 77 95 / 10 0 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 97 76 94 / 0 0 0 30 Burnet Muni Airport 74 96 73 94 / 10 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 98 76 95 / 10 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 74 95 75 93/ 0 0 0 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 76 95 / 10 0 0 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 97 77 95 / 0 10 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 76 93 / 0 0 0 30 Stinson Muni Airport 76 95 77 93 / 0 0 0 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...CJM  461 FXUS64 KFWD 082333 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms are expected this afternoon mainly east of I-35. Strong winds and heavy rain will be the main threats with any storms. - Hot and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with low storm chances returning across the region by this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Quasi-stationary convection occurred across Hopkins county overnight into this morning in which MRMS has estimated as much as 7 inches of rainfall has fallen prompting QPE to FFG ratios exceeding 200%, translating to a localized region of 6-hour 200 year ARIs. As PWAT ranges from 1.5- 1.7" over the region in addition to a warm cloud depth of extending up to 6 km AGL based off the 12Z Fort Worth sounding, was not surprised to see efficient warm rain processes with these storms. Another hot and humid day is in store for North Central Texas today, as we remain under weak flow aloft with a broad longwave trough located to our south. Similar to the previous few days, we will continue the typical diurnal pattern of shallow low-level moisture mixing out with daytime heating as high temperatures will reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees today. As dewpoints are expected to decrease into the mid to upper 60s, heat index values will range from 100 to 105 degrees which is just below heat index criteria, although individuals should make sure to stay hydrated especially during any outdoor activities. Though coverage will be lower than yesterday, can expect a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the early evening hours with weak flow aloft and and sufficient destabilization with high resolution ensemble guidance showing 1000 J/Kg SBCAPE. Coverage will likely be highest in areas north and east of the DFW Metroplex where the greatest low-level moisture is with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and frequent lightning, but also can't rule out a few sub- severe wind gusts up to 50 mph as forecast soundings 20-25 degree surface dewpoint depressions. Similar to yesterday, most activity should be over by sunset as the boundary layer begins to stabilize. Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with southerly winds ranging from 5-10 mph and gusts peaking around 15-20 mph. As a result, overnight lows are again expected to remain quite balmy, with temperatures only dropping to near 80 degrees for the Metroplex, with mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Thursday, expect drier conditions as 500 mb heights are around the 85th percentile underneath the broad ridge that is encompassing most of the country. High temperatures are expected to approach the 100 degree mark with heat indices remaining below advisory criteria as we continue the diurnal trend of mixing out boundary layer moisture through the afternoon, leaving dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows will again remain muggy under gusty conditions, with temperatures only dropping to around or just below 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The long term period will feature an amplifying mid-level ridge, with 500 mb heights increasing to 594 dam over the 4 Corners region by this weekend. This will result in high temperatures remaining around 5 degrees above average (climatology for DFW on Friday is 95 degrees). Long term ensemble guidance is hinting at a weak surface front pushing to the south from an attendant surface low located over Southern Kansas, which may serve as a focal point for a few showers and thunderstorms across North Central Texas Saturday night into Sunday, however this will depend on how far south the front progresses. Confidence in spatial coverage of rainfall is uncertain at this time, but with PWAT values ranging from the 85th to 90th percentile, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms. In addition to weak flow aloft (around 5 knots at 500 mb), storms will likely be slow-moving which may introduce a flooding threat. Stay tuned for more details as this gets closer... With increasing precipitation chances and therefore cloud cover, can expect highs to cool down slightly to the mid-90s by early next week with rain chances each day as moisture remains trapped underneath the ridge. Weak easterly mid-level flow may allow for a few sea-breeze induced showers and thunderstorms to drift inland, mainly impacting our southern and eastern counties in addition to stronger moisture return into North Central Texas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Though isolated TSRA has developed southwest of the Metroplex, TSRA is very unlikely at TAF sites (<10%) so have not included in TAFs. VFR and south flow at 10-15 kts will prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 102 81 100 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 79 98 77 96 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 77 96 78 95 / 10 0 0 0 Denton 80 101 81 100 / 10 0 0 0 McKinney 80 100 81 99 / 10 0 0 0 Dallas 82 101 81 100 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 78 98 78 97 / 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 79 99 77 98 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 77 98 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 100 77 99 / 20 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brauer LONG TERM....Brauer AVIATION...Darrah  391 FXUS64 KLIX 082332 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 629 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Through the end of the workweek, very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. - Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle. - Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Generally, upper level conditions are reflective of the typical summertime pattern with high pressure stretching from the Atlantic Bermuda high westward to the desert southwest. There are some weaknesses in the northcentral Gulf coast that allow shallow intrusions of lower pressure and weak troughing. At the surface, the Bermuda high extends into the north central Gulf providing some light southerly flow around its western periphery. Typical weather pattern is daytime highs in the low to mid 90s and apparent temperatures just below the 108 degree theshold for heat headlines, overnight lows hang in the upper 70s giving slight opportunities for cooling, and convection is governed by sea breeze boundaries and remnant boundaries after intial convection collapses. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 That weak trough described in the short term conditions will move from the Ohio Valley Saturday, into our area by Monday and into the eastern Gulf Tuesday. A weak surface boundary may also be associated with the trough. Precipitable water values are expected to be near or above the 90th percentile Saturday night through Monday (2.10 inches) and possibly topping out around 2.3 inches on Monday before dropping to near the mean (1.7 inches) by late Tuesday. This should enhance (scattered to numerous) convective coverage during convectively favored times Sunday and Monday...peak heating hours over land zones, late night and morning in marine areas. Of course, with precipitable water values that high, there will be a threat of at least localized heavy rainfall, but pinpointing exactly where that will occur 5 or 6 days from now is problematical. As the column dries out somewhat late on Tuesday, we'll probably see less areal coverage of convection, and a lesser threat of heavy rainfall, but low level lapse rates steepen and DCAPE values increase to over 1000 j/kg, so the wind threat will increase. Still looks to be rather warm on Sunday, as storms may not develop until mid-afternoon, with highs probably 90 to 95. Areal coverage of storms increases Monday and likely develops a little earlier, so slightly lower high temperatures should be expected. Guidance from the Tuesday global operational models was within a degree or two of each other, so there's not likely to be much of a shift in the NBM numbers. Won't entirely rule out the need for a Heat Advisory Sunday, but at this point, the numbers say it's borderline at best. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Most afternoon convection has dissipated, with the exception of a few cells near KMCB and some newly developed convection over Lake Borgne, which could impact KGPT in a few hours if it doesn't dissipate. Considering we are approaching sunset, the usual trend would be for considerable weakening to occur over the next hour. Assuming that continues, would anticipate VFR conditions overnight. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA is expected again during the afternoon hours tomorrow, and will use PROB30 once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds shift to due south then to the southeast by the weekend but remain around 10kt. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, mostly during the morning hours. A few may be strong producing erratic gusty winds and/or waterspouts, with locally hazardous seas. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...RW MARINE...DS  412 FXUS64 KTSA 082332 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Isolated to widely scattered storm today and Thursday with localized strong downburst winds possible. - Heat builds today into Thursday and Heat Advisories may be needed. - Storm chances trend higher Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures likely near to slightly below normal through this same time frame. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The area remains positioned between upper level ridging to the west and an area of lower pressure over the southeastern US today. A diffuse front remains draped across the CWA with lee troughing across the central high plains. This pattern will allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon. HREF neighborhood probabilities continue to indicate southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas will be most favored for any development, though low chances will exist across much of the area. Precipitation chances diminish this evening with loss of daytime heating. By late tonight into Thursday morning, a shortwave will move east out of the Rockies and traverse the central plains, providing additional low rain/storm chances across NE OK and NW AR after 06z. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across parts of NE OK and the AR River Valley. With dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s, heat index values are forecast to warm into the lower 100s this afternoon. A few locations may briefly warm into advisory criteria (105F+) but coverage is expected to remain low and relatively brief, which precludes advisory issuance at this time. With that said, if conditions trend warmer, a short-fused advisory may be warranted. Low temperatures will be quite warm tonight as light southerly winds persist. A few of the warmer locations my struggle to fall below 80 degrees, but most locations will land in the mid to upper 70s tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing to start Thursday morning, particularly along and north of I-44. Any activity could leave a boundary in place across northern portions of the area and low rain and storm chances will continue across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into the afternoon hours. Overall, coverage continues to vary within short-range guidance, but at least isolated activity will be possible during the day with the aforementioned shortwave in the vicinity. Given stronger wind shear along the KS and MO borders, a couple strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. As the wave passes, surface winds are likely to increase out of the southwest during the day given a tight NW-SE pressure gradient. This will increase afternoon temperatures further, with highs potentially approaching 100 degrees in the typically warmer areas (Tulsa metro and AR River Valley). While dewpoints will likely be lower as well, any areas in NE OK or the AR River Valley unaffected by morning/afternoon convection will likely still experience heat indices near or above 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for portions of the area, but with uncertainties regarding any remnant outflow boundaries and afternoon convection, will hold off issuing with this forecast package. Thursday night into Friday, a stronger wave is expected to produce an MCS that will track east off the central high plains. While this activity will likely move toward the FA, convective evolution and potential impacts to ourarea remain uncertain. CAMs are not overly excited at the moment, but the potential will remain under this pattern and slight chance PoPs were maintained near the KS and MO borders. Any remnant outflow boundaries may provide focus for additional development during the day Friday. Similar to Thursday, limited severe potential will exist, with strong to severe wind gusts possible. As the wave progresses east, it will push a frontal boundary south into S KS. This front will tend to remain in the vicinity and sag southward over the weekend. As weak troughing aloft develops over the area, rain and storm chances will trend up Friday night through this weekend. Upper level ridging strengthens over the northern plains early next week, with a persistent weakness in heights over our area. This will continue to provide low precipitation chances across the FA, but with a trend toward drier conditions by mid-late week as ridging expands into the area. Temperatures will move back to seasonal averages under this pattern next week, though heat indices will still approach or exceed 100 degrees at times. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated to widely scattered convection ongoing this evening across wrn AR, but probability of impacting any site too low to mention in forecasts. Low level jet develops late tonight, which will result in LLWS all sites for a few hours. High-based SHRA and isolated TSRA possible across nern OK and nwrn AR late tonight into Thursday morning, but again probability of impacts at any one terminal too low to mention at this time. South to southwest wind becomes gusty mid morning through the end of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 100 79 98 / 10 20 20 20 FSM 77 98 79 97 / 10 10 10 10 MLC 79 97 79 96 / 10 0 0 10 BVO 75 98 75 96 / 20 20 20 20 FYV 72 95 76 93 / 10 20 10 20 BYV 73 95 77 93 / 0 20 20 20 MKO 78 97 79 96 / 10 10 0 10 MIO 75 96 75 94 / 20 20 20 20 F10 77 97 79 96 / 10 10 0 10 HHW 77 95 76 94 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>057- 059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-354-376. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...69  405 FXUS65 KBOI 082332 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 532 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms across portions of southern Idaho may produce outflow wind gusts up to 40-60 mph through this evening. - Hot with breezy afternoon winds through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 126 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 Thunderstorms got off to an early start today with the first strike hitting before 10AM this morning. Activity will continue into the early evening bringing the potential for local wind gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest outflow winds will be focused east of Hwy 51 and Mountain Home and south of Hwy 20 out to Fairfield. It's not unreasonable that a westward propagating outflow extends further into the Treasure Valley this evening though it is going to be a race between thunderstorm outflows and an evening wind push from the northwest. For now, expect the northwest winds to win the race for most of the Treasure Valley. These winds will first push through SE Oregon counties early this evening, bringing gusts 30 to 40 mph in the typically winder locations. A quieter hot and dry pattern settles in after this evening. High temperatures on Thursday are a few degrees cooler than today with northwest winds ramping up in the afternoon. The heat builds on Friday as an upper high over the Desert SW expands northward. This will put lower elevations near 100 and mountain valleys near 90. Winds will be lighter at lower elevations as southwest flow aloft brings breezy winds to higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 126 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 Hot temperatures will persist throughout the long-term period, with the well-advertised ridge shifting east over the Rockies/High Plains. this will bring lower elevation temperatures in the upper-90s and around triple digits. Saturday appears to be the hottest day of the period, with temperatures throughout lower elevations near 100 degrees and localized areas near 105 degrees for daytime highs. Overnight lows will generally stay 5-10 degrees above normal as well. Come Monday, the signal for a monsoonal push remains, with ensemble guidance continuing to carry precipitable water values around the 95th percentile of climatology. This moisture will help reintroduce thunderstorms into the forecast come Monday and beyond, especially over higher terrain. With that moisture, flash flooding could be a concern, especially over recent burn scars. Another aspect will be the lightning over dry fuels after a long stretch of hot and dry conditions. The antecedent dry conditions combined with lightning potential increases the concern of new fire starts, especially if initial storms take on a dry posture. Both of these hazards will need to be monitored in the days to come. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 530 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening in far SW and S-central Idaho, including KJER/KTWF. Storms capable of outflows to 30-50 kt, small hail, brief heavy rain, and blowing dust. Localized terrain obstruction from wildfire smoke. High density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds outside of storms:W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts to 25 kt this evening, except 25-35 kt from KBKE-KONO. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude this week due to heat. Foothills obscured in smoke at times from nearby fires. Surface winds: W-NW 8-13 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-424- 426. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....NF  416 FXUS65 KPUB 082332 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 532 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday, forming over the mountains each day and moving over the plains. - Flash flooding concerns persist for the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Severe weather will be possible over the eastern plains this evening, then again Thursday and Friday. - Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, as moisture gradually increases across western Colorado starting Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 400 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Updated to add blowing dust for the San Luis Valley for the next couple of hours. Decaying thunderstorms are pushing winds 50 to 60 mph across the valley, and areas of blowing dust, mainly across eastern portions of the valley, are seeing very low visibilities, less than one mile. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Flat upper high pressure area continues to stretch from southern CA across the Four Corners into the US southern Plains. Upper shortwaves sliding across the region will kick off convective activity through this evening, and again on Thursday. Currently...A bit more convective activity across the forecast area this afternoon, with all storms slowly pushing east and are struggling to maintain any strength, at least initially. As of 1 PM, temps have warmed into the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Main plains locations will likely hit 100F later this afternoon. Tonight...Main concerns this evening will be flash flood threat across the Aspen Acres burn scar, and developing severe weather threat for the far eastern plains. Given current activity on radar, feel that the Flash Flood Watch for the AA Fire is a good thing this evening through 8 PM. Given how fresh the burn is and how hydrophobic the ground likely is, any storm crossing the area will be a concern. Much of the activity should push east of the AA Fire by 8 PM. Second, SPC had painted a large portion of the eastern plains within a Slight, and even have an Enhanced touching Kiowa County. There is some favorable CAPE for the plains tonight, but does not necessarily sync up with the best forecast bulk shear. Regardless, as storms push east late this afternoon and eve they may be able to tap into the increased llvl moisture and some favorable shear, enough for potentially some damaging wind gusts and large hail. Best time window out east looks to be now until 8 PM, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Crowley, Otero, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties. Plan on mild overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Tomorrow...Similar set-up for Thursday, though a degree or two cooler, and hi-res models are showing much more favorable CAPE and bulk shear for the plains. Therefore, with the continuing threat of greater areal coverage of storms along the eastern slopes of the eastern mts, issued another Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres Fire for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Across the east, SPC Day 2 Outlook paints much of the plains within a Slight area, and it actually looks more favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon through the eve. As for fire weather conditions, some spotty critical conditions may develop across the San Luis Valley in the afternoon, but at this time winds are a little questionable so will hold off on any highlights. Farther north for Fire Zone 220, affecting the Willow Fire, near critical fire weather conditions are forecast as well with gusty winds definitely there, and only question will be how low the RH gets in the aftn. Look for high temps in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday night and Friday...Plan on a mild night with moderate RH recovery, with lows in the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. Upper high starts to amplify Friday, leading to drying across UT and western CO. Long range models do show another upper disturbance dropping south across the central US plains and eastern CO, keeping storm chances in play for the CO plains Fri afternoon and evening, some of which will likely be strong to severe. Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Spotty critical fire weather conditions continue across the San Luis Valley, as well as across Lake and Chaffee counties. Saturday through Wednesday...Upper ridge migrates to the north and northeast over the weekend and into the upcoming work week, providing for lingering hot conditions for the entire area into the middle of the upcoming work week. Though the eastern plains will likely remain dry, the track of the upper high does allow for some monsoon moisture to start creeping northward into western CO starting Monday, with some isolated convection spilling over along the Continental Divide. Moore && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 528 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 KALS...a few showers will remain possible near the terminal through 02z this evening with gust winds possible. VFR conditions with light winds are forecast overnight into Thursday morning. Westerly flow increases by early afternoon, along with shower and thunderstorm chances for the San Luis Valley. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong outflow winds. KCOS and KPUB...showers and thunderstorms will remain possible this evening, especially at KPUB through around 02-03z. Gusty outflow winds near 35-40 kts will be the main concern. VFR conditions are forecast overnight into Thursday early afternoon. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms will be possible at both terminals during the mid to late afternoon hours. Gusty outflow winds to near 40 kts will be the main concern. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOZLEY  540 FXUS62 KRAH 082335 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 735 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increased chances for precipitation Saturday and Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 125 PM Wednesday... 1) Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain; both hazards are of less concern on Thursday. 2) Chances for diurnally driven convection each day through the weekend, before drying out early-mid next week. Continued warm Fri and Sat, with near to below normal temperatures Sun and Mon. && .DISCUSSION... As of 125 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain; both hazards are of less concern on Thursday. A stationary front has moved very little over the last six hours and is noticeable on visible satellite, extending from northwest to southeast in the vicinity of VUJ, SOP, and FAY. It is just north of this boundary that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, with the threat coming from damaging wind gusts. While the wind shear is negligible, the continued hot and humid conditions have allowed for MLCAPE values between 2000 and 3000 J/kg and DCAPE values as high as 1000 J/kg across the southwest. Peak thunderstorm coverage is likely from 5-8pm this evening. In addition, a heat advisory remains in effect south of the Triangle for heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees this afternoon. The coverage of thunderstorms should be less on Thursday, with the bulk of the thunderstorms expected to remain north and west of the forecast area. In addition, while high temperatures will be nearly the same between today and tomorrow, slightly drier air moving into the region Thursday should result in lower humidity and drop heat index values below advisory criteria. KEY MESSAGE 2... Chances for diurnally driven convection each day through the weekend, before drying out early-mid next week. Continued warm Fri and Sat, with near to below normal temperatures Sun and Mon. Aloft, a broad upper trough will sit over the region as a s/w progresses esewd across the Plains and into the MS Valley Fri/Fri night. The s/w will help amplify the trough as it continues esewd across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic over the weekend. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level anticyclone will strengthen over the Desert Southwest Fri/Sat, then lift nwd across the Rockies and ewd over the nrn/cntl Plains Sat night through Sun night. The trough will get pushed south and east next week as the high builds across the nrn/n- cntl CONUS. At the surface, a trough will remain in place over the area through Sat. A backdoor cold front should push swd-sswwd across the area Sun/Mon, while an area of low pressure develops off the Southeast US coast. The ridge may remain over the area as the low lifts newd along and off the East Coast Tue/Wed, but details are less clear that far out. Expect the greatest chances and coverage of convective activity Sat and Sun. As for temperatures, the warmest day should be Fri, with highs ranging from low 90s NW to upper 90s SE. Sun and Mon should be the (relatively) coolest days, with highs ranging from low-mid 80s N and NW to upper 80s/around 90 degrees S and SE. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 735 PM Wednesday... Flight restrictions may continue over the next few hours as isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to move through the region. If a thunderstorm moves over a terminal, expect lowered visibilities, lightning, and gusty winds. Also, some of the strongest cells may have some hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. Overnight after the rain exits the area, light winds and abundant moisture may support the development of low stratus, with the best chance in the northeast (RWI). However, guidance is still split on whether or not it will form leading to low confidence. Overnight, winds will be light to calm, before becoming westerly tomorrow. Storm coverage looks to decrease tomorrow, so did not include any rain chances at any TAF sites, however the best chance looks to be in the western sites starting around 21Z. Outlook: Brief restrictions will be possible again on Friday, especially in the west as another round of afternoon thunderstorms may form. A better chance for more widespread rain and the associated restrictions will be on Saturday and Sunday as a cold front approaches and moves through the region. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-077-078-085-086- 088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/10 AVIATION...LH  559 FXUS63 KABR 082335 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 635 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect Thursday afternoon through evening for north central South Dakota and parts of central South Dakota west of the Missouri River. Hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main threats. - A slight cooldown is expected today and Thursday, with widespread near-normal high temperatures (upper 70s to 80s). A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 There area some low clouds over portions of central and northeastern SD this morning. The lower clouds should dissipate by the afternoon and mostly clear skies will be around during the afternoon. While there is some instability over central SD this afternoon, there is a capped environment over central and northeastern SD that should keep storms and showers from developing during the evening into tonight. Temperatures today and Thursday will be around normal for this time of the year, with highs in the 70s to 80s. A frontal boundary will be moving into SD Thursday afternoon through the night with some warm, moist temperatures sneaking in during the day. There will be higher instability Thursday afternoon over northwestern SD, with CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, which will help with storm development as the frontal boundary pushes through late Thursday afternoon. During the evening, the environment for storms will weaken, with CAPE values dropping into the 1000 J/kg and even lower during the overnight hours. The storms will move east into central and northeastern SD into the weaker environment which will start to weaken the storms and cause them to dissipate. High-res models are still forecasting scattered storms to move into north central SD and some area west of the Missouri River Thursday evening before dissipating as they move east. There is a slight (level 2 out of 5) to marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for these storms to become severe over north central SD. The primary hazards in these storms will be hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60-70 mph. An upper-level ridge will be starting to develop over SD Friday into the weekend and early next week. This ridge will be pushing warm, humid air up into central and northeastern SD through the weekend and onward. Temperatures warm to be around 5-15 degrees warmer than normal on Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Then they will increase even more Sunday and Monday to be in the mid 90s to mid 100s. Heat index values will get up into the mid 90s to triple digits Sunday and Monday. There is a 30-50% chance for heat risk to reach Major category Saturday, with a 75-95% chance Sunday and Monday. There is also a 25-45% chance of the Heat Risk to get into the Extreme category Monday. Those who are sensitive to heat as well as those who lack cooling and hydration through the day could develop heat illnesses. The ridge and high pressure will also help to keep storms and showers from developing and moving into central and northeastern SD through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are currently forecast through the TAF period. There is potential for patchy FG/BR in the James/Big Sioux River valleys early Thursday morning, but confidence is low whether or not it affects KABR/KATY. Will revisit potential for the 06Z TAFs. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...TMT  575 FXUS65 KVEF 082335 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 430 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday. High pressure will gradually build into the area over the next few days from the west. The center of the high will push across Nevada on Friday night and then move near the Four Corners on Saturday which will begin to open the door to monsoonal moisture. More on that later. In the meantime, above normal temperatures will be the rule. We will be very close to or at 110 for high temperatures in Las Vegas through Saturday. We have not hit 110 yet this year and on average we reach that level about 10 times per year. As the moisture builds into the region aloft, the chance of thunderstorms will also increase. With isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday although instability, if any will be quite limited, and then more scattered coverage on Monday. The moisture increase will mainly be in the mid and upper levels initially and that will keep the main concerns with any thunderstorms being dry lightning and strong and gusty winds. Moisture will likely be with us for much of the week and any additional details with respect to thunderstorm activity will become better resolved over the next few days. The increased moisture will however, reduce our high temperatures by several degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...South to Southwest winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts to continue through around 03z. Gusts are expected to diminish quickly after sunset with the loss of heating, with winds becoming light and variable by daybreak. Following a similar pattern on Thursday, winds shift to the SSE-S briefly mid-morning, then veer to the S-SSW during the afternoon with another round of gusts to 20-25KT expected thereafter. VFR conditions with clear skies through the period. Expect temperatures at or above 100 degrees 17z - 03z with a high of 110 expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Daily wind pattern continuing at all sites with mainly southerly winds and gusts 20-25 kts this evening. Expect wind speeds and gusts to diminish after sunset with KDAG being an exception. For KBIH, Guidance continues to show a push of westerly winds around 10kt over the next few hours, but confidence on if and when this could occur is lower. Better confidence in a shift to NW winds overnight and into the morning for KBIH. At KDAG, stronger westerly winds persist into the evening, with gusts to around 25-28KTs through midnight. Daily wind pattern expected again on Thursday with afternoon wind gusts of 20-25 kts. Lower confidence at KBIH tomorrow as hi-res guidance shows northerly flow persisting well into the day with a much a later switchover to the south. VFR conditions with no operationally significant cloud cover will continue. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Czyzyk AVIATION...Moore For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  512 FXUS66 KHNX 082334 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 434 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .UPDATE... Updated aviation section. && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir and Lake Isabella through 11 PM PDT Thursday, July 9. Beware of unsettled waters. 2. Slow but steady warmup this week, with widespread Moderate Heat Risk by the weekend and isolated areas of Major Heat Risk. 3. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will create elevated fire risk, particularly in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties. 4. Increased chance for Sierra Nevada thunderstorms late this weekend into next week with monsoonal moisture pushing into our region. 5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir and Lake Isabella through 11 PM PDT Thursday, July 9. Sustained winds to 25 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph will create hazardous conditions for small craft and high-profile vehicles. Zonal flow prevails at the moment as a high pressure sits over the Four Corners region, bringing the area dry and warm conditions, with high temperatures a bit above normal. The high pressure will retrograde westward over the next day or two, bringing further increased temperatures. High temperatures in the Valley today will be in the upper 90s, increasing to the upper 90s and low 100s Thursday. Desert highs will be in the low 100s today, increasing to 105 to 115 tomorrow. As the high moves westward, winds will increase in the desert. Maximum wind gusts will be 20-25 mph in the Valley today and 15-20 mph Thursday. In eastern Kern and Tulare Counties, maximum wind gusts will be 35-45 mph today, increasing to 40-55 mph tomorrow. These winds will be hazardous to drivers in the area, particularly those in high-profile vehicles. Relative humidity will also decrease as the high moves westward. Minimum relative humidities will be 20-25% in the Valley today, decreasing to 14-18% tomorrow. In the desert, minimum relative humidities will be 6-10% today, decreasing to 4-8% tomorrow. The distinct combination of above-average temperatures, windy conditions, and dry air will create concerning fire conditions in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties Wednesday through Friday. As we move into the weekend, the high will migrate northeastward. This will alter overall flow to a southeasterly direction, bringing a surge of monsoon moisture to the region. As this happens, lightning chances will increase along the Sierra Crest and into the desert, with a 5-10% probability of lightning Sunday, increasing to 10-30% on Monday and continuing similarly through at least the early part of the week. Despite the surge of moisture, there will also be a dry lightning risk associated with some storms. As the heat continues, be sure to take appropriate precautions and check in on and make arrangements for vulnerable people and animals. Brachycephalic (short-nose) breeds will have particular difficulties with the heat and should be kept indoors. If driving or boating in an area with a Wind Advisory, take appropriate precautions. Water temperatures are still in the upper 60s and low 70s and much colder near water flowing from higher elevations. Exercise cold water safety at all times. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. 40 to 50 percent chance for wind gusts to exceed 20 kts at TAF sites in the San Joaquin Valley between 04Z and 07Z Thu. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warmer and drier conditions are moving into the area today and tomorrow. Minimum relative humidities will be 20-25% in the Valley today, decreasing to 14-18% tomorrow. In the desert, minimum relative humidities will be6-10% today, decreasing to 4-8% tomorrow. Meanwhile, gusty winds will prevail in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties (maximum wind gusts will be 35-45 mph today, increasing to 40-55 mph tomorrow). This combination of heat, dry air, and wind will create elevated fire concerns in the aforementioned areas today through Friday. A surge of monsoon moisture will arrive later Sunday. While this will improve humidities slightly, it will create a notable increase in lightning chances, including the possibility of dry lightning. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ300-332. && $$ public...AC aviation....McCoy weather.gov/hanford  647 FXUS63 KDLH 082336 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A mainly dry and warming pattern is expected through the forecast period. - Dangerous heat is possible Saturday and especially Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A cold front was located across northwest Wisconsin back into the Twin Cities metro area early this afternoon with high pressure building across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms were developing ahead of the cold front across northwest Wisconsin along and south of a Manitowish Waters to Hayward to Hinckley line. Cloud cover through the day has limited instability across northwest Wisconsin and no strong or severe storms are expected before activity exits the region later this evening. Heavy rainfall does remain possible across Price County into this evening with PWATs in excess of 1.7" in place per latest SPC RAP analysis. High pressure will then build in for Thursday into Thursday night with zonal flow aloft. Flow turns more northwesterly on Friday with an embedded shortwave moving through the Upper Midwest Friday afternoon into Friday night. This will bring chances for shower and a few thunderstorms, mainly along the International Border and Arrowhead. Heading into the weekend, upper level ridging will develop across the central CONUS with southerly/southwesterly flow at the surface around high pressure in the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This will pump well above normal temperatures into the region with highs in the 80s Saturday before low 90s arrive for Sunday and Monday. Increasing dewpoints are also expected this weekend which will lead to hot and humid conditions with apparent temperatures reaching into the lower to mid-90s. These conditions may lead to an increased risk of heat-related illness and heat headlines may be needed. A cold front will push across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and will bring low chances for showers and thunderstorms as it moves through. Cooler air will also arrive in the wake of the front for Wednesday as highs fall back into the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals except periodic drops to MVFR at HYR. Fog is expected tonight at HYR from earlier rain showers, dropping to IFR conditions. There's a lesser chance at DLH and HIB, but confidence is high enough to include MVFR/IFR conditions in the TAF. Winds will be light and variable throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Main forecast concern in the near term will be dense fog this afternoon and tonight. Fog has already developed along the North Shore per webcams and is expected to develop across the remainder of the nearshore waters into this evening before lifting after sunrise Thursday. Winds will remain under 10 knots through Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of interior northwest Wisconsin this afternoon, mainly Price County and adjacent areas. Additional rainfall up to 0.10-0.15" will be possible in this area. Dry conditions will prevail elsewhere. RH values are still forecast to vary widely across the region, with readings of 30-45% along and north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead with values above 50% elsewhere. Winds will be variable this afternoon at 5 to 10 mph. A dry and warming pattern is expected to setup for the remainder of the week and into the weekend outside of very low shower and thunderstorm chances in far northern areas Friday afternoon into Friday night. Highs will reach into the 80s Thursday- Saturday with 90s in the mix by Sunday. Thursday looks to be the driest day in terms of RH with values of 25-35% along and north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead with values of 35 to 45% elsewhere. Increasing humidity heading into the weekend will keep minimum values at around 35% or above. Winds will remain under 15 mph into Saturday with some gusts to around 20 mph by Sunday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...KML MARINE...BJH FIRE WEATHER...BJH  677 FXUS63 KLBF 082337 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening/overnight across much of western and north central Nebraska - Additional chances of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday - Main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall both today and Thursday - Warmer temperatures this weekend into next week with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The main concern in the short term will be storm development this afternoon and evening/overnight and again on Thursday. A frontal boundary will continue to sag southward across the state and a trof moving in from the west, this will become the focus for storm development. A few of the CAMs have convection starting as early as 20z, which tend to favor this early convective development given the environment and having seeing already started to see some convective development across northeastern NE and seeing some upscale growth on satellite. 0 to 6 km shear will increase through the afternoon with 35 to 40 kts expected across the Sandhills. MUCAPE values increase to around 2500 to 3000 J/kg by late this afternoon. Moisture will be abundant with dew points across the area in the 60s. Expect storms to initially be discrete developing along the frontal boundary and could see additional development from the higher terrain across the Panhandle moving into the CWA. Expect that the storms across western Nebraska may evolve into more bowing segments with damaging wind gusts. The main hazards will be strong, damaging winds and large hail, along with a threat for heavy rainfall. SPC has highlighted western Nebraska generally from a line near Pine Ridge to Tryon to North Platte to Curtis and westward as the greatest threat to see the strongest, damaging wind gusts. There will be the potential for additional development of thunderstorms later this evening, continuing into the overnight hours as the LLJ increases, maintaining storm development and will see the threat for heavy rainfall as PWATs increase greater than 1.50". The area of greatest concern will be along and south of interstate 80 and points eastward into central Nebraska where a marginal risk for excessive rainfall is possible, with portions of eastern Lincoln, Custer and Frontier highlighted by a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Expect any overnight thunderstorm activity to end by the early morning hours on Thursday. As for Thursday, there will be another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms again in the afternoon and evening. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across the Panhandle and move into the area. 0 to 6 km shear will be around 30 kts across western Nebraska with MUCAPE around 1500 to 2200 J/kg. This should be sufficient enough to sustain a few isolated thunderstorms tomorrow with the greatest threats being strong winds and large hail and a secondary threat of heavy rainfall. Generally expect the greatest threat for strong to severe storms to be along and west of a line from HWY 83 westward. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 After Thursday, an upper level ridge will start to build in from the west. Heading into the weekend as the ridge moves eastward temperatures warm into the 90s on Saturday and Sunday. The upper level ridge continues to build and move eastward becoming centered over the Central Plains CONUS by early next week and remain over the area through the late next week. Good signal continues to show supporting temperatures reaching themid to upper 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated thunderstorms will initially develop in the vicinity of KLBF during the early evening before a more organized thunderstorm system develops from the west and moves in later in the evening into the overnight hours over southwest Nebraska including the KLBF terminal. Locally MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds will be possible near any storm. Winds will become light and variable during the early morning hours of Thursday, along with a signal of some IFR conditions over north central to central Nebraska, impacting both terminals. Conditions across the region should largely improve back to VFR late Thursday morning along with a wind shift out of the southeast at 10 - 15 kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...MRS  665 FXUS65 KGJT 082336 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 536 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Terrain based showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon with wetting rains unlikely. - Showers will shift northward on Thursday with areas north of highway 50 favored. - Localized critical fire weather conditions favor southeast UT and southwest CO Thursday afternoon. - Excessive heat watch has been issued for Saturday and Sunday afternoon for near record temperatures in the lower valleys of eastern Utah and western Colorado. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Widespread terrain based showers and thunderstorms have developed across the region this afternoon. This morning's Grand Junction sounding would have you believe this to be a robust summer thunderstorm event. Unfortunately, the stingy moisture profile we've been working with this week is still robbing much of this mid level moisture. Observations from storms in southwest Colorado show wetting rains have actually made it to the surface in a few spots. Elsewhere, much lighter values are turning up. Showers and storms will taper towards sunset. A weak upper level disturbance working across the Great Basin beneath a weak jet streak could keep some shower activity alive into late tonight. As these showers decay, some gusty outflow winds are likely to bounce around some valleys. This could fan some wildfires too. Thursday, that upper level disturbance will reside overhead northeast UT and northwest CO. As a result, afternoon convection will favor the northern half of our CWA down to about highway 50, as drier air invades the column around the Four Corners. With some wetting rains in southwest CO this afternoon, I would expect a couple of showers to get a start on the south shoulders of the San Juans Thursday, despite model hesitancy down there. Broad high pressure begins to lift into the region from the south on Friday. Some high res guidance hints at an isolated shower or two on the northern mountains, but nothing southward. This will begin a buildup of excessively high temperatures this weekend beneath stubborn high pressure parked over the West. An Excessive Heat Watch was issued for all of our lower valleys on Saturday and Sunday to account for widespread triple digit temperatures. Some of the lower desert valleys will approach 108 degrees by Sunday. Critical fire weather begins to taper Thursday, favoring the Four Corners. Lighter winds beneath the high Friday and beyond will further suppress fire weather conditions. Models begin to hint at some moisture working beneath the high onto the San Juans Sunday. Eyes will continue to focus southward to see if any hope for additional moisture emerges Monday and beyond. Moisture starved and wildfire weary, any sign of rainfall will be greeted with hope on the West Slope this year. For now it looks like those triple digit temperatures will continue to bake the lower valleys next week, unless we get some afternoon showers and thunderstorms to cool things off. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 534 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through 06Z. The main impacts will be gusty outflow winds as strong as 35 kts, but minimal to no impacts to vis are expected and cigs should stay above ILS breakpoints. Winds calm overnight before breezy conditions with gusts up to 25 kts re-establish tomorrow afternoon beginning around 18-21Z. VFR conditions are expected to persist at all terminals throughout the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ001-002-005>008-011-014-020>023. UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ022-024-027-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTB AVIATION...TGJT  895 FXUS61 KPBZ 082341 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 741 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes have been made to the forecast, as overall model trends have remained fairly stable. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening, mainly south and east of Pittsburgh 2) Unsettled pattern Thursday through Saturday, with at least some potential for heavy rainfall and isolated flooding concerns, especially south of I-70. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Flat ridging aloft, along with drier air above 700mb, is keeping clouds and showers suppressed to the north and west of Pittsburgh. To the east and south of the city, better overall moisture (1.3 to 1.5 inch precipitable water) and terrain/low- level convergence are helping to fuel isolated to scattered showers. To this point, the capping and dry air aloft is stunting updraft growth for the most part, keeping cloud tops warmer than -10C and thus preventing lightning generation. Continued updraft attempts may eventually allow convection to get tall enough for a few thunderstorms, but shear and CAPE profiles remain unfavorable for severe weather. Brief downpours are possible and overall weak flow is encouraging slow storm motion, but any instances of heavier rainfall and/or potential flooding issues should remain very isolated at best, limited to locations that see multiple cells. Activity will decrease in coverage and intensity this evening as daytime heating is lost, and a brief areawide precipitation lull is expected during the mid to late evening. Another round of at least patchy fog is in the cards given the weak flow and lingering low-level moisture. KEY MESSAGE 2... A dampening shortwave trough is forecast to ride up the Ohio Valley tonight, with the axis crossing the Central Appalachians on Thursday. With the deeper moisture and best mid-level support/weak low-level convergence accompanying this wave, increased coverage of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms is expected mainly south of I-70 after 06Z Thursday, and remaining generally south of Pittsburgh during the daylight hours. Continued weak shear and low downdraft CAPE values should once again keep severe weather threats to a minimum. However, there may be a small uptick in heavy rain/flooding potential. HREF means suggest 1.6 to 1.8 inch precipitable water values tomorrow afternoon, and max precipitation progs indicate that isolated 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals may be possible in areas that receive multiple storms. At this time, flooding probabilities remain too limited in scope to consider a Flood Watch. A somewhat more vigorous shortwave is slated for a Friday passage. The track appears similar to the Thursday disturbance, but better areawide moisture potential plus some upper support from the right entrance region of a northeast CONUS upper jet should promote more widespread rain coverage. Again, severe weather threats remain muted, but rain totals/flood threats will need to be monitored south of I-70, as this region is once again pegged by ensembles as having higher precip totals. WPC notes this as well, bringing a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of excessive rainfall south of Pittsburgh on Friday. A boundary may set up shop near the Mason/Dixon Line on Saturday, keeping higher rain chances once again to the south of Pittsburgh, and potentially continuing an isolated flood risk there. Passage of the front Sunday will bring a drier trend to the region that is expected to continue into the middle of next week, along with a slow warming trend. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A shortwave will track up through the Ohio Valley and trigger additional showers after midnight primarily south/southeast of PIT, with impacts mostlikely limited to MGW and possibly LBE. Expect that we will see another round of fog in the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning with the light wind, remnant ground moisture, and scattering of clouds, again most dense where rain falls overnight. Confidence in impacts at any particular terminal remains too low to warrant mention at this time, but will continue monitoring for potential inclusion in subsequent TAF cycles as we watch shower activity evolve overnight. After a lull in shower activity during mid morning hours Thursday, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected in the afternoon and evening with impacts most likely south of PIT, but potentially as far north as the I-80 corridor. Outlook... More widespread showers and possible thunderstorms are expected Friday with a crossing shortwave. Additional morning fog and stratus is possible through the weekend, with shower and thunderstorm potential remaining highest south of PIT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...Cermak/JNC  913 FXUS63 KARX 082341 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 641 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clusters of storms developing over southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin advance southeast this evening. Some storms may be severe and produce locally heavy rainfall of (1-3"), mainly west of the Mississippi River. - Quieter weather for the remainder of the week with a 20-30% chance of afternoon storms for Thursday. - Cooler for the end of the week with warmth returning early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This Afternoon: Severe Weather and Heavy Rain Risk A convective complex that moved through central Minnesota gradually decayed and shifted northward through the morning hours as it ran into a more stable airmass, with the back edge of the anvil shield serving as the trigger for new convective development around noon as return southerly flow streamed up through the Siouxland. These cells have already grown into a multi-cell complex with additional cells developing further upstream along I-90. Given the earlier initiation timeframe and continued convective debris lingering over the forecast area, concerns area shifting more towards a heavy rain threat vs. severe threat with these storms. There looks to be a period before 00Z where storms could train along the I-90 corridor in southeastern Minnesota before the convective cold pools take over and propagate to the southeast, which should result in the convective complex sagging southward as well. Multiple runs of the HRRR through the day have been focusing the QPF axis of 1-3 inches (with some pixels of 4-5 inches) between I-35 and Highway 52 in southeast Minnesota and far northeast Iowa, an area that remains saturated from last week's deluge. Given these trends, have issued a flood watch for much of the area west of the Mississippi River through midnight tonight. There severe threat remains on the table, but will probably be more focused west of the Mississippi River (maybe even closer to I-35) where there will be better recovery of the airmass. There is some southeastward elongation in the 1-5-km hodographs that could support some storms organization, but with cells already growing upscale into clusters, severe weather will likely be focused in narrow corridors where the convective cold pools can organize. As the storms become more outflow dominant in the evening, the severe weather threat should wane. Thursday Afternoon: Scattered Showers and Storms Cooler and slightly less humid air filters southward on Thursday in the wake of this afternoon's storms, but vertical thermal profiles will still support pulse convection during the afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and little to no inhibition. Shear profiles and forcing will be weak and therefore storms will struggle to organize. Very localized heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches would be the main threat with these storms given their slower storm motions. Cool End to the Week, Warmer Next Week Upper level ridging builds in for the weekend and into early next week, keeping the threat for rainfall at bay while at the same time pumping heat northward into the northern CONUS. At this point, the warmest temperatures are progged to be more over High Plains with the Upper Mississippi River Valley falling under a weak east to southeasterly flow under or just west of the surface high pressure reflection. This may act to temper temperatures and dewpoints compared to locations further west, though to the exact degree is less certain. Highs are still forecast to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s no matter how you slice the forecast, making it feel solidly like summer. The ridge flattens around midweek, but how fast it amplifies earlier in the week will dictate whether this flattening brings convection down into our region or if the storms stay to the north and we remain under the heat. The various ensembles groups remain in their respective camps on how this will unfold with no clear leaning one way or another. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A cold front will move through southeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin between now and 11 pm. Once this occurs, the threat for severe weather and flooding will end. Areas of fog will be found overnight. This will produce areas of IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities through 09.14z. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ086>088-094>096. IA...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for IAZ008>011-018-019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skow AVIATION...Boyne  845 FXUS63 KEAX 082340 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Updated 00z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Our stretch of dry weather comes to an end late tonight into early tomorrow morning and this wetter pattern will continue into the weekend. - Strong to severe storms will be possible with strong winds and heavy rainfall as the primary risks. - Hot and dry weather returns next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight into Tomorrow... The upper level pattern looks to become more active as multiple shortwaves moves through the central CONUS. After one last day of quieter summer weather today the first round of weather looks to arrive late tonight into tomorrow morning. Storms are expected to initiate across the Upper Midwest and High Plains this evening near the cold front and track east this evening into tonight. The primary severe environment is where SPC has their highest risks are well to our west. Upscale growth into a MCS is very possible and this occurrence is what could give us a severe risk. Many of the CAMs show some amount of upscale growth, so it does seem like the more likely solution. If a MCS can develop with the aid of a robust LLJ we could see the MCS maintain itself well into eastern Kansas and Missouri. The primary threat with this will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. As the LLJ decouples, the storm would start to fall apart. How far east this gets before falling apart will play a key role in the rest of the day on Thursday. If it gets deep into Missouri before falling apart this will keep us cloudier and cooler keeping heat risks much lower. The forecast has clearly trended more in this direction over the past day. More of the spread now between the modeling systems is how far south to take this cooler solution. North of I-70 seems most likely, but some take it even farther. For later in the day the better environment does seem to be to the east and south, but storms could well initiate over western Missouri. Recent trends have started to favor farther east and SPC has updated their slight risk for tomorrow farther east to account for this. Once again how the morning plays out will be key as if we see an MCS a it may leave behind a MCV and that would be a favored area for additional CI. The more organized convection with the larger wind threat likely seems east where more destabilization will occur or farther south closer to the warm front. Friday into the Weekend... Thursday's warm front will continue north and likely stall out over us Friday and Saturday before finally moving out on Sunday. This will provide more lift for additional rain chances. Looking towards the global ensembles there is signal for rain all the way through Sunday evening when spread starts to increase with more dry members starting to show up. This does not look like it will be a rain all the time kind of setup, but more of an intermittent rain. Timing when this will start and stop at this range is not something that can be done with much accuracy. Instability will be sufficient for thunderstorms, but the shear profile does not look as favorable for severe storms. However anytime you get instability with steep lapse rates some stronger storms are possible and with this SPC does have a marginal risk south of I-70 on Friday. Next Week... There is strong agreement between the global deterministic models that a large ridge will develop over the central CONUS early next week. There is more variability in how this evolves over the rest of the week. This favors a return to hotter and dry weather for the next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Cloud will slowly increase through the evening with system approaching. Cloud bases and ceilings should remain VFR for most of the evening. Rain showers and thunderstorms are expected during the overnight hours, and this may result in a few hours of MVFR conditions as these move through. By mid afternoon, shower activity should push southeastward. More activity is possible late Thursday evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Carletta AVIATION...Krull  831 FXUS63 KLMK 082340 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 740 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds late this afternoon and evening. * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. * A drier overall pattern looks to take hold for early to middle next week. Look for highs in the upper 80s to near 90. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Now - Tonight... The closed upper low that has plagued the region for the past several days will finally get picked up by the prevailing westerlies this evening, and exit the region later tonight as an open shortwave. Ahead of this feature, PWATs have pooled into the 2-2.1" range throughout the column. The lack of deep layer shear is promoting slow storm movement, and with tall/skinny CAPE profiles combined with deep freezing levels above 14K feet, efficient heavy rainers will occur. Localized Flash Flooding will continue to be a threat through this afternoon and evening with HREF LMPP data suggesting isolated pockets of 2-4" amounts are possible in 1 to 2 hours. This is similar to what we have seen the past few days for some areas. Expect a handful of Flood Advisories and a few Flash Flood Warnings through this evening. Some slow moving showers and storms could linger deeper into tonight, mainly across our eastern CWA ahead of the upper trough axis, but overall confidence is low in how deep they will survive past peak heating. Thursday - Sunday... The late week into the weekend upper pattern will feature progressive zonal flow, with a series of shortwaves and/or convection induced MCV's traversing our area. Meanwhile, a surface frontal boundary will slowly sink southward across the region during this time. The end result will be waves of showers and thunderstorms riding along a nearly-stationary frontal boundary, and roughly parallel to the upper flow. Expect there to be some sort of mostly dry period on Thursday as lingering showers exit our east with the departing shortwave and we remain subsident for a bit behind the feature. Later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, focus will shift upstream to the next shortwave embedded within the flow. Some sort of cluster and/or clusters of showers and storms are expected to develop upstream ahead of this feature, and then work into our area later Thursday night into Friday. This cluster is expected to carry a Damaging Wind threat along with heavy rainfall capable of producing Flash Flooding. There isn't a whole lot of deep layer shear available for strong MCS maintenance (20-25 knots with the synoptic flow), however if you can get enough of a cold pool going from clusters of storms, we do have some lingering elevated instability over our area into the overnight to support sustained forward propagating convection. As a result, we'll carry a damaging wind threat into late Thursday night/Friday morning which matches with the SPC Day 2 Outlook nicely. W/NW CWA will have the greatest threat with lower confidence farther east given the diurnal minimum and uncertainty in how much of a cold pool push the convective complex will have. The other threat will be heavy rainfall given PWATs approaching 2" through the column and already wet antecedent conditions across the area. Not loving the 08/12z HREF 48 QPF Max and LPMM data for our area through Friday morning. It shows several pockets of 3-7" QPF amounts. It should be noted that some of that rainfall is from this afternoon (Wed afternoon), but still those are concerning amounts as these products have handled the "high-end" potential quite well with our recent rainfall events. Flood Watch was lifted for the entire CWA starting Thursday afternoon and running through late Saturday evening to account for the multi-wave threat. That multi-wave threat will continue into the weekend as shortwaves continue to eject into our area from upstream, likely creating training convective clusters with each wave. It is possible that any one of these waves (including Thursday night's) could have enough of a cold pool push to push the overall convectively reinforced boundary farther south. Two favorable things could come from this. 1.) The axis of heavier rainfall could shift from the northern CWA to the southern, or 2.) the axis of heavier rainfall could shift farther south into TN. Any wave in this series of waves that can be dodged will be helpful. Worst case scenario would be the same area getting hit with each wave. Flooding could become quite severe if that scenario played out. Will continue to message significant flooding possibilities into the weekend given the antecedent wet conditions, possibilities of some high end rainfall totals in spots, and intense rainfall rates overwhelming urban or already saturated grounds. Turn Around, Don't Drown! By later Saturday night into Sunday morning, there is decent agreement that the upper trough axis of the final shortwave will start to slide south through our area, cutting off the deeper moisture and the shortwave feed. Strong upper ridging will build across the central CONUS with the eastern fringes trying to win out over our area as we go into Sunday. Will keep some lingering shower chances in our CWA during this time, but overall not to the magnitude we saw late week into the first part of the weekend. Expecting highs mostly in the mid 80s each day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Ridging building over the Intermountain West and Great Plains looks to expand eastward toward/into the region by the end of the weekend, though model differences exist in the northeastward extent of that ridge. From WPC's cluster analysis, about 70% of long-range ensemble membership builds the ridge solidly into our area - favoring an increasingly warm and dry pattern early next week - while the remaining 30% would suggest a less amplified ridge that favors near- normal temperatures and allows disturbances to trigger thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 739 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions outside of ongoing storms will continue through the night. Visibilities may drop to the high end MVFR category in storms along with lightning and VRB winds. By 04-05Z, storms should dissipate with clouds slowly breaking up by the early morning hours. Light to calm winds may allow fog to form in a few of our airports in the morning, dropping visibilities though fog will be short lived and mix away by 12Z. VFR conditions will continue tomorrow afternoon before another more prominent line of storms approaches from the west towards the very end of the TAF period bringing gusty winds and lowered visibilities. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081- 082. IN...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.&& $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...BKF  882 FXUS66 KMFR 082341 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 441 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Typical summer weather for the remainder of the week: seasonable temperatures and humidities, gusty afternoon winds. * Pattern amplifies Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-30 mph) Friday- Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring heightened fire weather concerns (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * Thunderstorm pattern early next week. Best chances east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. DISCUSSION...Skies are clear across the area today, except for a few residual marine layer clouds along the coast, and some developing cumulus fields beginning to pop up over the higher terrain of the Cascades and East Side. Westerly flow will prevail today into Thursday under a mostly zonal flow pattern with flat high pressure to the south and a broad trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more stable air mass with thunderstorm potential remaining well east of the area. A stray shower (5% chance) can't be ruled out from the cumulus buildups today, but chances are very low. A dry front will pass through the region today. This will bring another day of enhanced afternoon breezes as well as a general cooling trend in afternoon temperatures today that will persist into the weekend. Instead of temperatures being 8 to 10 degrees above normal like recent days, high temperatures through the weekend will hover within a few degrees of normal, equating to low 90s West/upper 80s East. With this general cool down, we'll see an uptick in afternoon humidities, so despite the enhanced afternoon winds, fire weather concerns will be somewhat mitigated by the slightly cooler temperatures. The pattern transitions on Friday with high pressure to the south moving eastward into the Great Basin region, then amplifying on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward Friday into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly again and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tighter gradients. This pattern will bring a round of strong, gusty winds to the region Friday and Saturday when gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 30 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions could be possible east of the Cascades Friday and Saturday, most widespread on Saturday. See the fire discussion below for more information. Low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, and this will ease winds some compared to Saturday, but conditions will still be quite breezy. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough. Daytime humidities will trend slightly upward and the flow will turn more southerly heading into the early part of next week. This pattern will bear watching for thunderstorm potential as south to southwesterly flow could push some monsoonal moisture into the region. While this is still 5 to 7 days out and plenty of time for details to change between now and then, it currently looks like we'll skate by on Sunday without any convective activity. Monday through Wednesday, however, there could be enough moisture and instability in the region for thunderstorm activity. Given that the region is on the western periphery of that strong high pressure, it currently looks like the best chances would be across eastern areas, though it's worth noting that current guidance shows enough moisture across the West Side for thunderstorm development potentially on Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates as models hone in on additional details. && .AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with the one exception along/near the coast. There will be a deck of low clouds from near Cape Blanco north (including KOTH). Patchy low clouds are current located near Cape Blanco northward to near North Bend. Guidance supports IFR conditions developing at North Bend (KOTH) by 09z, with clearing around 15-16z. Gusty winds are expected this evening and again late tomorrow afternoon and evening at area TAF sites. && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, July 8, 2026...The latest models have trended towards a stronger thermal trough than previously expected. Now, gusty winds and steep wind-driven seas are expected to spread to all of the southern Oregon waters by this evening, and very steep seas will develop south of Gold Beach. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but could strengthen again late weekend with gusty north winds and steep seas. && .FIRE WEATHER (Updated at 100 PM Wednesday, July 8th)... This week will be noted by warm seasonable temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy afternoon wind speeds. This will ultimately result in elevated fire weather conditions starting tomorrow (Thurs). The areas of concern for tomorrow are both the Rogue and Illinois valleys, northern California, and eastside areas. This threat will further increase to near critical or critical fire weather conditions by Friday for eastside areas (Modoc, Klamath, and Lake counties). The threat of critical fire weather conditions will linger through the weekend. Saturday is currently the higher potential for critical fire weather conditions as well as the larger extent of areas with low RH and enhanced breezes, and these areas include eastside areas for both Oregon and northern California (Klamath, Lake, eastern Siskiyou, and Modoc counties). Saturday has lower RH values through the afternoon compared to Friday, but both days will be breezy with gusts around 30-35 mph (potentially 40mph in the windier places). Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lesser end of the spectrum. Regardless, Friday through Sunday will likely experience elevated to critical fire weather conditions with Red Flag Warnings likely developing through this stretch. In the extended forecast, early to middle of next week, we are seeing a signal for thunderstorms with increasing confidence over the last 24 hours. Monsoonal moisture will increase through this stretch, so storms may be on the wetter side; however, lightning over dry fuels will be a concern given our continued stretch of warm and dry weather. At this time, Wednesday has the higher potential for abundant lightning, but we could see thunderstorm activity Monday through Wednesday. Models are trying to develop a tropical storm off the coast of Baja California this weekend which could increase the monsoonal moisture pattern into the forecast area early to middle of next week. -Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  963 FXUS61 KALY 082342 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 742 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon for a few storms that could become severe. Primary hazards are strong winds and heavy downpours. 2) Heat and humidity build back in for eastern New York and western New England tomorrow into Friday for minor heat-related impacts. After a return to seasonal temperatures for this weekend, another warming trend begins next week with minor to moderate heat- related impacts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Based on latest forecast trends, scattered rain showers return tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning across eastern New York and western New England. A few thunderstorms could develop ahead of an approaching cold front where some could become severe with damaging winds and heavy downpours being the primary hazards. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to support a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon. Then for Friday, a few non-severe thunderstorms could develop before the cold front moves through the Greater Capital Region and the Mid-Hudson Valley. Primary hazards are strong winds associated with any thunderstorms. Continue to monitor the latest forecast with any changes. KEY MESSAGE 2... Humid conditions return tomorrow into Friday as the surface high pressure system heads east and a low pressure system arrives over the Great Lakes region. Associated with this weather system is warmer than normal temperatures with highs forecasted to range in the low 80s for higher terrain locations to low 90s for valleys before a cold front moves through Friday night bringing relief from the heat and humidity for this weekend. Based on latest forecast trends, feels-like temperatures range in the low to mid-90s for valley locations. For the Mid-Hudson Valley, forecast confidence remains steady on not reaching heat advisory criteria as more than 2 hours are needed for feels-like temperatures above 95 degrees. While it could be reached for one hour, the impacts remain minor for those more extremely susceptible to the heat and without cooling. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks when working outdoors during peak heating hours. Beginning early next week, we continue to monitor potential minor to moderate heat-related impacts as temperatures have medium chances to climb into the mid-90s for valley locations. Feels-like temperatures could climb into the upper 90s if humid conditions returns. Keep up to date on the latest forecast as we get closer to next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z FRI...VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU with a few cumulus and sct-bkn thin cirrus, as high pressure moves south and east of the region. With mostly clear skies and the winds becoming light to calm, so radiative mist/fog is possible once again for KGFL where vsbys/cigs may lower to IFR/LIFR levels especially between 06Z-12Z. The cirrus may be abundant enough for the conditions to lower to MVFR in terms of vsbys and there is a chance some low stratus may form, as a weak disturbance moves through 08-12Z/Thu for KALB. We included a TEMPO for IFR conditions in terms of vsbys at KPSF with low MVFR cigs also 08-12Z/Thu and MVFR conditions at KPOU. The mist/fog and stratus should burn off quickly 12Z-14Z/Thu with VFR conditions returning. A prefrontal sfc trough may bring iso-sct showers and thunderstorms in the 20Z/Thu to 00Z/Fri time frame for all the TAF sites and we used PROB30 groups which can be refined later with MVFR conditions with any thunderstorms. The winds will be south tosoutheast at 7 KT or less early tonight, and then will become light to calm. The winds increase from the south/southwest at less than 10 KTs in the late morning into the afternoon. Any thunderstorms may produce variable in direction winds with gusts 30-35KT. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...15  019 FXUS63 KAPX 082343 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 743 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain and isolated strong storms through Thursday. - Significant heat and humidity builds once again by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Deep moisture will overspread northern Michigan tonight into Thursday as several mid level shortwaves ride along a quasi- stationary frontal boundary layed out across central Wisconsin into northern Michigan. Enhanced low level convergence along this boundary will provide the potential for locally heavy rains. The front will eventually sag south of the area, setting northern Michigan up for a mainly dry weekend. Significant heat and humidity build early next week as high amplitude ridging strengthens over the center of the CONUS. A myriad of model solutions tonight, largely influenced by convective evolution during the day and residual boundaries. Tonight likely features the best combination of moisture and forcing for heavy rain and possibly localized flooding with PWATs surging toward 200% of normal. Forecast soundings show deep moisture through the column, warm layer cloud depths to 12k+ and skinny CAPE - overall a favorable look for heavy rain. The activity tonight will be a very efficient heavy rain producer and we will have to watch for possible flooding in any areas with antecedent high soil moistures from recent rains (Leelanau County through the Tip of the Mitt). Later tonight into Thursday, a surface low will ride along the boundary draped across the area, further enhancing rain potential and slowing any southward drift of the front. The shower and storm chances continue on Thursday, with a slow southward shift in focus as the aforementioned boundary slowly sinks southward. Although only marginal instability through Thursday, a few stronger storms will be possible with gusty winds the main threat (due to precipitation loading). A nice summer weekend shaping up for northern Michigan with mainly dry conditions and highs in the 80s. Generally comfortable humidity levels as well, with a slight rise in surface dewpoints by Sunday as moisture begins to work back into the Great Lakes. A washed out frontal boundary on Sunday could be the focusing mechanism for a shower or storm but most of that appears to remain north of our area. More significant heat returns early next week as a large amplitude ridge builds to our west. Rising humidity will accompany the heat, with heat indices likely pushing well into the 90s (or higher). Some of the warmest temperatures for the week may occur early in the week, where the mid level cap will be strongest and convective development limited (much like occurred a week ago). The cap breaks down by midweek and "ridge runner" convective complexes will be possible across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 741 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers will move in from west to east over the next several hours this evening. Cannot rule out a few lightning strikes near MBL this evening, but latest trends decrease confidence in this occurring the the vicinity of MBL and have thus been left out of the 00Z TAFs at this time as the line continues to weaken as it moves across the lake and better chances stay to the south. Otherwise, multiple rounds of showers and a few storms will be possible tonight into Thursday as flight conditions decay. Drops to IFR/LIFR are expected across much of northern Michigan tonight into Thursday morning before conditions begin to improve later Thursday morning into the afternoon – including VFR conditions possible for all TAF sites by 00Z Friday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JK AVIATION...DC  990 FXUS63 KICT 082343 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 643 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon, mainly across central Kansas. - Thunderstorm chances increase tonight across primarily central Kansas and last into Thursday. Widespread severe weather is not expected, though the strongest storms may be capable of damaging winds and small hail. - Continued chances for showers and storms through the weekend, especially late overnight into the early morning hours. - Mostly seasonable temperatures through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight a flattening upper ridge over the Rockies as an MCV tracks eastward across central Kansas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed as a result of this feature and will remain possible across central Kansas this afternoon. Severe weather appears unlikely at this time. A slow-moving cold front currently draped across Nebraska will shift southward through the rest of today into the evening hours. Showers and storms are progged to develop near this boundary in the High Plains and track eastward into the forecast area later tonight on the nose of a strengthening LLJ. Locally, the best chances for storms continue to lie in central Kansas and to the north where better instability lies, though uncertainty remains regarding intensity by the time activity reaches the forecast area. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary concern with the strongest activity, though small hail and locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well. Outflow from storms tonight will drive an effective front southward into southern Kansas throughout the day on Thursday. Convergence along this boundary may result in isolated storms during the late afternoon and evening hours particularly in south central and southeast Kansas, though a solid cap aloft may hinder storm development. Additionally, an MCS coming in off the High Plains will bring more rain chances to the area, though as mentioned in the previous discussion, the track for this feature remains uncertain as some solutions carry this complex as far south as Wichita or as far north as the I-70 corridor. Damaging wind gusts will once again be the primary threats with this activity should storms manage to hold together. Rain chances will continue Friday into Saturday as the frontal zone stalls out over the forecast area. Damaging winds will continue to be the primary hazard with the strongest activity. Furthermore, additional opportunities for precipitation may return to begin next week with mid/long-range guidance highlighting northeasterly shortwaves reaching the forecast area along the bottom of the upper high. At this point, the best chances appear to reside in southern Kansas, so most of the forecast area is expected to remain dry for this period. Regarding temperatures, highs in the upper 90s are forecast across southern Kansas for Thursday before a slight cooldown into the low to mid 90s arrives Friday and lasts into the beginning of next week. Models continue to depict a strong mid/upper ridge building across the central CONUS to start next week, though as the prior discussion pointed out, this may actually build too far north for abnormally warm temperatures to be realized in our area. As such, seasonable highs near 90 continue to be forecast Monday through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions expected this evening with showers/storms expected to increase in coverage over western Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Scattered showers/storms look to develop around 06z over central Kansas and spread slowly southeast during the overnight hours. Meanwhile winds will switch from the southeast to northeast/easterly direction as a frontal boundary sinks slowly southward across the area during the day on Thursday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...CDJ  942 FXUS66 KMTR 082341 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 441 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Warmer weather continues through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) Seasonally cool to seasonal temperatures continue through the remainder of today before a warming trend kicks off tomorrow. Upper level high pressure will continue to strengthen over the desert southwest as we head into Thursday. Temperatures are expected to warm by 2-5 degrees across the interior with most locations reaching the mid to upper 80s. Far northern North Bay and East Bay may reach the low to mid 90s with the interior Central Coast reaching the upper 90s to low 100s. If you're looking for cooler weather, coastal areas and the bay shoreline will stay in the 60s to 70s. HeatRisk remains Minor for most of the region with patchy Moderate HeatRisk forecast across the far interior Central Coast. As temperatures start to rise again, make sure to take breaks in the shade and stay hydrated while outdoors. Diurnally breezy winds continue in the afternoon and evening with gusts between 20 to 30 mph possible in favored windy locations (Altamont Pass, Salinas Valley). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) The warming trend continues through the extended forecast period as high pressure remains in place over the desert southwest. Interior high temperatures may fluctuate a degree or two each day but will generally remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. Hot spots in the far North Bay, East Bay, and Interior Central Coast will be in the upper 90s to low 100s. Coastal areas and the bay shoreline warm up slightly but will stay in the 70s (coast) to upper 70s/low 80s (bay shoreline). By late this weekend, the center of the upper level ridge will shift slightly northeastward over the Intermountain West where it will continue to strengthen heading into next week. Temperatures look to warm further early next week with Moderate HeatRisk forecast across portions of the Bay Area and higher elevations. Conditions do not currently meet Heat Advisory criteria but this may be reevaluated as we get closer in time. Thunderstorms remain possible late this weekend into early next week as monsoonal moisture moves into California from the Gulf of California/Baja California. The moisture source remains good with PWATs in excess of 1", about 150-200% or normal for this time of year. The 700-500 mb lapse rates remain around 7 C/km which is decent. The question becomes how much instability (MUCAPE) we will have. Current models show isolated pockets of minimal MUCAPE across our region but this is by no means widespread or a substantial amount. Longer term models can sometimes struggle with instability across our region so we will be able to better assess this parameter as we move into the range of higher resolution/short term models. While we are still expecting little to no precipitation with this moisture surge, the ECMWF is showing the potential for some light rain (< 0.1") along the coast Sunday into Monday. Fire weather concerns remain if thunderstorms are able to develop with storms possible across the Bay Area and Central Coast. It is recommended to stay up to date on the forecast especially as weget into the range of higher resolution models and get a better idea of the overall setup. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 432 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The marine layer has compressed from about 1,500 feet yesterday to about 1,000 feet today. That brings good news and bad news for aviation weather. The good news is that the spatial and temporal stratus coverage will be reduced. The low clouds won't push as far inland or last as long. The bad news is that where ceilings do form, they will be closer to the ground. There is a good chance for IFR ceilings and even visibility impacts early Thursday morning, particularly where the winds ease overnight (looking at you, STS). Vicinity of SFO...The clouds are currently banked up against the Peninsula mountains. It's hard to say if they will spill over the ridge like we saw the last couple days, or if they will have to fill in the Bay side first. If they can't get over the ridge, that would delay the onset by several hours and the terminal could stay scattered until 08Z or so in the best case scenario. On the other hand, the clouds could be there as soon as 02Z if they spill over, which is my best guess based on the current satellite loop and marine layer depth. SFO Bridge Approach...With either scenario described above, the approach should stay clear several hours longer than the terminal before the ceiling arrives early Thursday morning. Monterey Bay Terminals...With the shallower marine layer the ceilings should be 200-500 feet lower than last night, and there is an outside chance for visibility impacts if the winds die down more than expected at either MRY or SNS. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Northwest winds remain fresh to strong as embedded near gale force gusts increase into the weekend. Wind driven moderate seas (5-8 ft) build to rough (9-11 ft) this evening into the weekend paired with a long period southerly swell. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warmer and drier conditions continue into this weekend. This increases fire weather concerns slightly as fuels are forecast to rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. The main forecast concern is the lack of instability across our region which may prevent convection from developing. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. && .BEACHES... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  026 FXAK67 PAJK 082343 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Active weather continues as another front moves into the central and southern panhandle through this evening - Heavier showers are expected for the far southern panhandle with a slight chance (15%) of thunderstorm development - Elevated winds across the panhandle due to tightening pressure gradient, becoming gusty as showers pass through && .SHORT TERM.../Through 12Z Saturday/...Our next frontal wave is affecting the southern half of the region with plenty of cloudiness and numerous showers. This activity will persist tonight with some scattered showers also pushing north and impacting the inner channels, perhaps even a bit north of Juneau and Gustavus. Satellite imagery also continues to suggest some convective elements, and with some CAPE and sufficient cold air aloft combined with pockets of enhanced lift, there will be at least some gusty, heavy showers with reduced visibilities. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with strong winds as the primary hazard, especially to mariners. Farther north, including Yakutat, conditions should remain mostly dry into early Thursday. However, areas that see breaks in cloud cover overnight may again see some patchy fog development toward daybreak. With the exception of the far southern sections, precipitation chances will stay rather low Thursday. But, moisture associated with low pressure in British Columbia and a couple weak shortwaves will begin to impact the far northeast portion of the region by late in the day, which will then expand farther south on Friday. There could still be a few thunderstorms on Friday and potentially Friday night, mainly across the northern panhandle, but much of the organized activity may remain to our northeast. Recent model solutions have also leaned a little weaker with the mid level forcing and lift, so convective potential may be somewhat muted. We should have more clarity on this by late tonight or early Thursday. By Saturday, weak ridging will begin to approach the area, which should help gradually lower precipitation chances once again. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably mild across the region through the short term. High temps on Thursday may need to be bumped a bit warmer if model trends persist for a decrease in sky cover around midday Thursday. .LONG TERM... /Saturday through Wednesday/... As the low pressure system from Friday moves southeastward, the chance for a disturbance from British Colombia to bring showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder will continue for Saturday. A ridge should build in behind the high pressure system, and that should decrease chances for precipitation. By Sunday night into Monday, a low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf of Alaska. Right now, models are still disagreeing on the exact timing and strength of the low, stronger winds (up to 20 kts or 23 mph) in the Gulf and some higher rain chances are expected for Southeast Alaska with the low. As of now, the low pressure system looks to not be very organized, but it is something to monitor. Heading into next week, there will be greater confidence of the timing and impacts of the low, but we look to overall enter a wet pattern. && .AVIATION...A front associated with a low in the Gulf, is currently driving moderate to heavy localized rain showers to the southern panhandle this afternoon, lowering CIGs and VSBYs into MVFR conditions with brief drops during passing showers. Showers will linger over the southern panhandle through the night, though precipitation amounts will start to lighten and move more central by tomorrow afternoon. Sites from Sumner Strait southward are trending toward high-end IFR early tomorrow morning, while the rest of the southern panhandle will remain in prevailing MVFR conditions with increasing pockets of clearing as the front moves out. Conversely, the northern panhandle will clear out tomorrow, remaining VFR from Frederick Sound northward, though there is potential for morning low clouds to linger within the Icy Strait corridor. Winds will generally blow from the SE ahead of the front, keeping many sites across the panhandle breezy through this afternoon before steadily decreasing in the evening. However, localized winds near southern Clarence Strait will keep PAKT elevated at around 15 kts through the night. && .MARINE... Inside Waters (Inner Channels): A front ahead of a Gulf low will continue to push its way northeastward into the Southern Inner Channels this afternoon into Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 25 kt for the tonight period for the Dixon Entrance & southern Clarence Strait before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. The rest of the Inner Channels should remain around 20 kt or less during the same timeframe. Then, a weaker pressure gradient causes winds and seas to calm as high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday. Outside Waters (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The Gulf low with its associated front will continue to push its way northeastward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska through Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 20-25 kt along the front just to the northeast of the low center tonight over the east-central & southeastern Gulf before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. Expecting 6 to 8 ft seas over the aforementioned region through Thursday evening. Then, as the pressure gradient relaxes, winds and seas calm resultantly as high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-661>663. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJB LONG TERM...Musall AVIATION...BAS MARINE...BAS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  066 FXUS61 KILN 082344 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 744 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes from previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow primarily south of I-70. 2) A larger system arrives near the end of the working week, reintroducing a heavy rain and localized flooding threat. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A loosely organized low over the Lower Ohio Valley to track slowly east thru the region thru Thursday. As this system tracks to our south - the northern periphery of showers and thunderstorms will affect the southern portion of ILN/s forecast area. Storms will continue to develop in the moderately unstable airmass across the south this afternoon. A very moist environment will exist with PWAT values at 1.75 inches or above. This moist environment and slow storm motion will lead to a threat for heavy rain and localized flooding. Model solutions show a slight down tick in shower and storm coverage later this evening with an increase in coverage late tonight into early Thursday as the shortwave tracks thru the area. There may be a diurnal uptick in the east Thursday afternoon as the system exits the area. KEY MESSAGE 2) The westerlies will push south late this week with an associated slow moving cold front sagging south from Canada and laying out parallel to the mid level flow across the southern Ohio Valley. This zonal flow will provide the focus for several shortwave disturbances which track thru the region this week. These shortwaves and and associated showers and thunderstorms will impact our area Thursday night through Saturday. A very moist environment will be in place with PWAT values of 2+ inches. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms and the very moist airmass, will offer the threat for heavy rain and localized flooding. The greatest QPF footprint appears to be across ILN/s southern counties, with a widespread 1-3 inches with a gradient lessening the farther north you go. Locally higher amounts will be possible with stronger storms and where training storms develop. Uncertainty on the exact placement and amounts exits but will continue to message the heavy rain threat for areas south of I-70. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period. A few light showers are possible for the Cincinnati sites this evening. There will also be a chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the overnight and into Thursday morning. A PROB30 group has been continued for the TAF sites for this, though confidence remains too low for a TEMPO or prevailing group. Also, if some clearing develops overnight into Thursday morning, some patchy MVFR fog could occur. For now, this has not been included in the TAFs. Additional chances for showers and storms will arrive after 00Z tomorrow night. Outlook...Thunderstorms are possible Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...Hatzos  028 FXUS62 KGSP 082343 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 743 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the public forecast. The Aviation section has been updated for the 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Seasonally hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday, then a slight cool-down for Sunday and Monday. Though a Heat Advisory is not likely to be issued, those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. 2. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected across mainly western North Carolina through Friday before a cold front brings better shower and thunderstorm chances area-wide this weekend into Monday. A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible during peak heating hours each day through Friday, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Seasonally hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday, then a slight cool-down for Sunday and Monday. Though a Heat Advisory is not likely to be issued, those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas. Never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. The Bermuda High slowly breaks down through the end of the week and will be replaced by a weak upper trof that will support increasing storm coverage, yet temps will remain seasonally hot through Saturday...generally five degrees or so above normal. Typical summertime humidity will also continue to be a factor, but dewpoint is expected to mix out enough to keep us from reaching Heat Advisory criteria each afternoon. Model guidance continues to show a bit more breezy than usual in the afternoons, which might feel like a bit of a relief, but more likely the relief will come from showers and storms. By the weekend, a weak front will drop down into the region courtesy of a short wave in the nrn stream, which will eventually push the front through perhaps on Sunday. The increase in storm coverage and cloud cover may drop the temps back to normal Sunday, but more likely that will happen for Monday. There remains plenty of uncertainty as to the development of weak cold air damming early in the week because of a transitory sfc high moving across New England, but for now we will keep the below normal temps Monday. Some of the guidance suggests the cooler air will linger into Tuesday. Welcome relief...if it develops. Key message 2: Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected across mainly western North Carolina through Friday before a cold front brings better shower and thunderstorm chances area-wide this weekend into Monday. A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible during peak heating hours each day through Friday, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop. For the afternoon, the main concern is the Marginal Risk of severe storms over the northwest Piedmont and northern part of metro Charlotte, but really anywhere east of the mountains where storms develop. The environment is characterized by sfc-based CAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range, but with dCAPE above 800 J/kg everywhere east of the mtns, and sfc-delta theta-e around 30K. Thus, the environment is supportive of wet microbursts outside the mtns, even if the HRRR shows the convective activity mainly over central NC. More of the same is expected for Thursday and Friday, with improving coverage each day, above climo, and favoring the mtns the most even if the pulse-severe risk might be slightly higher east of the mtns. The main hazard with any severe storms will remain damaging wind gusts from microbursts. As the coverage improves, the flash flood risk will also increase over mainly the NC mountains as we get into this weekend and the boundary sinks down into the region. Precipitable water will climb up into the 2 inch vicinity which is approaching the top end of the climatology. Note the Day3-5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a slight risk in the TN valley into the west side of the mtns, so we will be watching that situation. Drier conditions should return by Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into the region behind the departing front. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Widely scattered showers and storms will continue to dissipate over the next several hours with no additional impacts expected at area terminals. A quiet evening is expected with only focus being on the potential for another round of mountain fog and stratus. Restrictions may be possible at KAVL through the predawn hours before any fog mixes out. Thereafter, gusty southwest winds return Thursday afternoon with another round of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly across North Carolina. Associated visibility and ceiling restrictions will be possible with any storms that develop. Outlook: The NC terminals will have the best potential to see TSRA each afternoon and evening through Friday. SHRA/TSRA chances return for all terminals this weekend into Monday. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in locations that see appreciable rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ PM/TW  094 FXUS64 KSJT 082345 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 645 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and dry conditions return for today though Friday with afternoon highs near or above the 100 degree mark. - Low to medium (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Early this afternoon skies were partly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds were generally from the south at 5 to 15 MPH. At the upper levels a 593dam ridge remains in place over the Desert Southwest and west Texas. Meanwhile, a warm and somewhat humid airmass was over west central Texas with dewpoints around 60. The ridge will continue to strengthen and expand eastward through tomorrow which should allow rain chances to be near zero everywhere today and Thursday. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s to around 100 each afternoon. An area of surface low pressure will move eastward through the central Plains tomorrow. As a result, winds will be slightly more out of the southwest and around 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 25. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper-level ridge will continue to be the predominant weather feature on Friday. This means hot and dry conditions will persist across the region with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Conditions should remain below Heat Advisory criteria. Looking ahead to this weekend, models remain in good agreement that the ridge will shift to the northern Plains and strengthen. Meanwhile an area of mid-level vorticity will rotate around the base of this ridge into the southern Plains. The low-level flow should become more southeasterly during this time and advect more gulf moisture into west central Texas. As a result, this should lead to a more unsettled pattern across the region with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms especially Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions and generally clear skies are expected through the next 24 hours. Initially somewhat gusty south winds this evening will decrease to around 10 knots at KABI, and less than 10 knots at our other TAF sites by early tonight. On Thursday, south or south-southwest winds will increase by mid-morning and continue through the afternoon. Wind speeds will be a little higher than today, and expect gusts around 22 knots at KABI, and near 20 knots at our other TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 75 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 74 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 76 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 73 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 73 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...19  392 FXUS62 KCHS 082347 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 747 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions for the majority of the week. - 2) Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week with increasing rain chances Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions for the majority of the week. Very little relief from the heat is expected tonight as lows will only drop into the upper 70s to low 80s and heat indices will likely remain in the mid to upper 90s well after midnight tonight, especially for the coastal areas. These warm overnight conditions could result in prolonged heat stress, especially for more vulnerable communities and those without adequate cooling overnight. Oppressive heat and humidity will continue Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. The ridge aloft will maintain control through the end of the week, but then starts to get suppressed to the south as west to east oriented troughing drifts in from the north over the weekend. High temperatures look quite similar each day Thursday through Saturday, with widespread upper 90s and isolated instances of triple digits. Surface winds will start off each day out of the west- southwest, allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 90s. Then the sea breeze will take hold and push mid to upper 70s dewpoints inland. The result is expected to yield the highest heat indices along the coastal corridor with values well into the 105-110 degree range and some areas into the 110-115 degree range. Further inland, heat indices should mostly top out around 105. To make conditions more uncomfortable, overnight lows will likely linger in the upper 70s, and even low 80s right along the coast. For heat headlines, the configuration of the Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning will be nearly identical to Wednesday with the only difference being Inland Berkeley as an advisory and not a warning. Then for Friday and Saturday, the footprint of the Heat Advisory will likely shrink and we might not even need an Extreme Heat Warning area. Also, convective coverage each afternoon does not look high enough to provide a significant disruption to the heat and humidity. Starting Sunday, and especially into next week, temperatures should cool off as a boundary sags into the region and supports increased rain chances and greater coverage of thunderstorms each day. KEY MESSAGE 2: Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. The pattern should continue to support only isolated to scattered convective coverage Thursday through Saturday, due to a lack of any notable features to drive development. There will continue to be a low end threat of an isolated severe storm or locally heavy rainfall, mainly where boundary interactions occur. As we move into Sunday and next week, a pattern change looks to be on the horizon. The upper ridge is expected to get suppressed to the south as a west to east trough drops in from the north. This should bring a front into the area which will linger for a few days. Increased convective coverage is expected, which will hopefully bring beneficial rains to the area and possibly even some risk of locally excessive rainfall. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 00Z TAFs: Isolated convection will quickly dissipate this evening, along with easing winds. VFR will prevail overnight into Thursday. There could be some convection Thursday afternoon, but probabilities are too low to include mention in these TAFs. Also, winds should increase with the sea breeze on Thursday, with gusts up to 20 kt at KCHS andKJZI. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR. There will be a low end risk of thunderstorm impacts each afternoon and evening, primarily at KCHS and KSAV. && .MARINE... Tonight: The overall pattern that has been in place should remain in place with south-southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts, with occasional gusts into the low 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to favor 3 to 4 ft. Thursday through Monday: The overall pattern will be on repeat Thursday through Saturday as southwest flow surges each afternoon and evening. Wind speeds should solidly reach the 15-20 knot range each day, with gusts approaching 25 knots along the SC coast and the adjacent coastal waters. Seas should mostly be in the 2-4 ft range, but could rise up to around 5 ft during times of peak surging in the evening hours. It is possible that short duration Small Craft Advisories could be needed, mainly for the SC waters and the Charleston Harbor. Then by Sunday, and especially Monday, conditions should feature lower wind speeds as a boundary drops into the area from the north. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 9: KCXM: 99/1986 July 10: KCHS: 100/1986 KCXM: 99/1986 KSAV: 102/1879 July 11: KCXM: 100/2001 July 12: KCXM: 97/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 9: KCHS: 80/1998 KCXM: 85/1998 KSAV: 80/1883 July 10: KCHS: 81/1986 KCXM: 82/1986 July 11: KCHS: 80/2016 KCXM: 82/2016 July 12: KCHS: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ099>101- 114-115-137-216-238-240. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ217>219-239-241. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ043>045- 147. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ148>152. MARINE...None. && $$ Black  273 FXUS62 KRAH 082345 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 745 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increased chances for precipitation Saturday and Sunday. * Heat Advisory has been allowed to expire at 8PM && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 125 PM Wednesday... 1) Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain; both hazards are of less concern on Thursday. 2) Chances for diurnally driven convection each day through the weekend, before drying out early-mid next week. Continued warm Fri and Sat, with near to below normal temperatures Sun and Mon. && .DISCUSSION... As of 125 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain; both hazards are of less concern on Thursday. A stationary front has moved very little over the last six hours and is noticeable on visible satellite, extending from northwest to southeast in the vicinity of VUJ, SOP, and FAY. It is just north of this boundary that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, with the threat coming from damaging wind gusts. While the wind shear is negligible, the continued hot and humid conditions have allowed for MLCAPE values between 2000 and 3000 J/kg and DCAPE values as high as 1000 J/kg across the southwest. Peak thunderstorm coverage is likely from 5-8pm this evening. In addition, a heat advisory remains in effect south of the Triangle for heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees this afternoon. The coverage of thunderstorms should be less on Thursday, with the bulk of the thunderstorms expected to remain north and west of the forecast area. In addition, while high temperatures will be nearly the same between today and tomorrow, slightly drier air moving into the region Thursday should result in lower humidity and drop heat index values below advisory criteria. KEY MESSAGE 2... Chances for diurnally driven convection each day through the weekend, before drying out early-mid next week. Continued warm Fri and Sat, with near to below normal temperatures Sun and Mon. Aloft, a broad upper trough will sit over the region as a s/w progresses esewd across the Plains and into the MS Valley Fri/Fri night. The s/w will help amplify the trough as it continues esewd across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic over the weekend. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level anticyclone will strengthen over the Desert Southwest Fri/Sat, then lift nwd across the Rockies and ewd over the nrn/cntl Plains Sat night through Sun night. The trough will get pushed south and east next week as the high builds across the nrn/n- cntl CONUS. At the surface, a trough will remain in place over the area through Sat. A backdoor cold front should push swd-sswwd across the area Sun/Mon, while an area of low pressure develops off the Southeast US coast. The ridge may remain over the area as the low lifts newd along and off the East Coast Tue/Wed, but details are less clear that far out. Expect the greatest chances and coverage of convective activity Sat and Sun. As for temperatures, the warmest day should be Fri, with highs ranging from low 90s NW to upper 90s SE. Sun and Mon should be the (relatively) coolest days, with highs ranging from low-mid 80s N and NW to upper 80s/around 90 degrees S and SE. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 735 PM Wednesday... Flight restrictions may continue over the next few hours as isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to move through the region. If a thunderstorm moves over a terminal, expect lowered visibilities, lightning, and gusty winds. Also, some of the strongest cells may have some hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. Overnight after the rain exits the area, light winds and abundant moisture may support the development of low stratus, with the best chance in the northeast (RWI). However, guidance is still split on whether or not it will form leading to low confidence. Overnight, winds will be light to calm, before becoming westerly tomorrow. Storm coverage looks to decrease tomorrow, so did not include any rain chances at any TAF sites, however the best chance looks to be in the western sites starting around 21Z. Outlook: Brief restrictions will be possible again on Friday, especially in the west as another round of afternoon thunderstorms may form. A better chance for more widespread rain and the associated restrictions will be on Saturday and Sunday as a cold front approaches and moves through the region. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/10 AVIATION...LH  243 FXUS64 KOHX 082345 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 645 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Summer heat and humidity to continue throughout the week and weekend. Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible through the end of the week, mainly west of the Plateau. - Daytime showers and storms are expected for the next several days. At this time, the risk of severe storms remains very low, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected with stronger, slower-moving storms. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 As a low pressure system swirls near the bootheel of MO on satellite, showers and thunderstorms are beginning to kick off in Middle Tennessee. We're expecting coverage to increase as the low pushes east this afternoon and evening. While some of these thunderstorms will be loud, produce heavy downpours, and maybe include some gusty winds, we're not expecting any severe storms today. Shear is extremely low, meaning the storms won't be able to really sustain themselves long enough to become severe despite a fair amount of instability. Highs will get into the mid to upper 80s, with heat indices in the 90s this afternoon. Thursday will be similar for the area, with warmer highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. WAA will continue for the area through Saturday aloft, but the temperatures will have to contend with the precipitation. Despite this, we will still have heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s both Thursday and Friday. While the outlooked area remains north of the KY/TN state line, we're still looking at scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as the morning hours on Thursday. Greatest chances for thunderstorms seems to be east of I-65 currently, but other locations could see them as well. Again, we are not expecting severe storms at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Into the weekend, as various rain chances careen through Middle Tennessee, our chances for flooding will also increase as high PWATs continue to be a threat. Given the already saturated soils, and the risk for another 3 to 4 inches through Sunday, a Flood watch has been issued for Thursday through Sunday. We could also see some isolated severe storms Friday into Saturday, as we are in a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) outlook for severe weather from SPC. Marginal is the best word to describe our risk, as shear remains in the barely double digits which is far below what is necessary for sustained storms but CAPE is high across the region. Similar setups to what's going on in the short term, with the addition of some remnant outflow boundaries from previous storms. Hazards right now look to be mainly gusty winds and heavy rain, with no tornado risk expected at this time. Into next week, things look warmer, yet drier. I don't mean fewer rain chances, I mean less humidity. Walking outdoors will no longer feel like walking through a swimming pool, with heat indices forecasted to be close to air temperature through mid-week next week. Unfortunately, it does appear as rain chances will continue as NW flow will set up over Middle Tennessee as we find ourselves east of a strengthening ridge for the beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 To the surprise of absolutely no one, more storms have developed in the warm, unstable and very humid Middle Tennessee air mass as we head into the evening. The terminals could be impacted to various degrees during the next 1 to 2 hours, but we expect the activity to really nosedive after sunset. We've included some light radiation fog at a few of the terminals for the overnight and early morning period, but winds may stay up just enough to keep it from getting too dense. Of course, we've made mention of more afternoon convective possibilities for Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 90 74 90 / 30 30 70 80 Clarksville 70 91 74 89 / 30 30 70 70 Crossville 65 82 67 83 / 30 60 70 90 Columbia 69 90 72 90 / 30 40 50 70 Cookeville 67 84 70 84 / 40 60 70 90 Jamestown 66 83 68 83 / 40 60 70 90 Lawrenceburg 68 87 71 88 / 30 50 50 80 Murfreesboro 70 90 72 90 / 40 40 60 80 Waverly 69 90 73 89 / 30 30 60 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Rose  526 FXUS61 KCLE 082350 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 750 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains generally on track. The Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded to include the eastern lakeshore areas and includes more of Northwest Ohio. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms return to the local area Thursday night and Friday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Northwest Ohio and extending east along the lakeshore Thursday evening/night. 2) Conditions dry out over the weekend with temperatures trending above normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a trough moving northeast through the Ohio Valley with moisture spreading north ahead of it. Meanwhile, a northern stream trough is moving into the Upper Midwest and will cross Lake Erie Thursday evening/night. The airmass remains very dry this afternoon with surface high pressure in place but the high is expected to weaken on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the north. Most of the day on Thursday will be dry but can not rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the lake breeze in Northeast Ohio/Northwest Pennsylvania. Otherwise a chance for showers and thunderstorms will be possible in Northwest Ohio by late afternoon with coverage increasing Thursday night as the front approaches. ML CAPE values are forecast to reach 1500-2000 J/kg in NW Ohio along with shear increasing Thursday evening as the shortwave trough passes aloft. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather has been expanded slightly to include more of Northwest Ohio and now extends eastward along the lakeshore which seems reasonable. The primary concern will be wind gusts of 50-60 mph with thunderstorms Thursday evening. Moisture advection will continue on Thursday night with PW values increasing to over 2 inches. Will continue with high pops for Thursday night as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. Will need to monitor for pockets of locally heavy rainfall with training of storms possible with the mean flow set up nearly parallel to the storm motion. On Friday another shortwave will track through the Ohio Valley. Instability may be kept to modest values with higher cloud cover expected. Still expecting continued shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday as the surface front is slow to clear the area. KEY MESSAGE 2... While a few showers may linger across the south on Saturday, the trend will be for drier conditions to develop over the weekend with high pressure building to the north. Low pops remain across the south into Saturday followed by a mostly dry forecast through the extended. While temperatures will be near normal over the weekend, a strong upper level ridge tries to expand east into the Great Lakes early next week. Temperatures are forecast to surpass 90 degrees in portions of the area but will depend on the our proximity to the ridge. There is a larger spread in ensemble temperatures next week based on if the ridge is overhead or if we are on the downstream side of it. Will be monitoring the overall pattern evolution over the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR conditions are now expected through the entire TAF period. Afternoon cumulus clouds are fading and some intermittent mid- to-high level clouds will be in and out of the airspace overnight. The fog/mist/low stratus potential for Thursday morning has greatly decreased as high pressure over the area has dried out the air mass significantly with dew points in the lower 60s. Unless low temperatures can get to near 60 degrees, there is likely not enough moisture in the atmosphere to support lower visibility or stratus. A cold front will approach the region from the west for Thursday and mid-level clouds will enter during the afternoon hours. Rain arrival is starting to become more delayed and may not reach the area until after 21z. Some isolated showers and storms may pop up along a lake breeze but it may be tough with how dry the atmosphere is ahead of the cold front. With that, will just have some VCSH conditions and keep conditions VFR. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Quiet marine conditions are expected to persist across Lake Erie through the weekend. High pressure today and tomorrow will keep winds from the southwest at 5-10 knots and waves in the nearshore below 2 feet. Thursday night, a cold front will sag south of the lake marking a shift to west-northwest winds. There is a potential for scattered thunderstorms during the evening hours which may locally enhance winds and waves, but widespread conditions should remain calm. The cold front continues to push south on Friday as high pressure returns from the north over the lake. Winds will gradually shift to northeasterly at 10-15 knots on Saturday and Sunday afternoons with waves in the western basin building to 1-3 feet. Overnight winds will remain calm. There are no anticipated marine headlines at this time. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10/Sullivan AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...04  571 FXUS61 KRNK 082351 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 751 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Showers/storms are decreasing in coverage and intensity for the remainder of the night. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Isolated thunderstorms through this evening will bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and flash flooding, although severe potential is decreasing. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Isolated thunderstorms through this evening will bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and flash flooding, although severe potential is decreasing. A stationary front bisects the forecast area from northwest to southeast with light northeast wind east of the mountains converging with westerly wind on west side of the mountains. Mean winds aloft are out of the west at about 15 mph so look for an eastward drift of the activity with potential for isolated damaging wind gusts due to water loading within the downdraft cores. There is also potential for localized flash flooding per environment supporting high rain efficiency, PWATs running 1.70 over the mountains to as much as 2" over the piedmont... backbuilding and training cells being the most problematic. After midnight, expect areas of stratus and fog redeveloping per shallow stable wedge east of the mountains. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will be a continued focus for showers/storms again Thursday with greatest coverage from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the front essentially stalled over the area, will have to contend with another day for localized heavy rain and marginally severe storms. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for early next week. Temperatures through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal and may actually cool to below normal for a few days early next week. The ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is shifting west over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Isolated showers/storms are decreasing in coverage/intensity this evening. Areas of fog and stratus will develop overnight with potential for widespread low cigs/vsbys leading to period of IFR conditions late tonight and early Thursday. Cycle repeats itself Thursday, fog/stratus lifting after 14Z followed by cloud build-ups around noon and scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. In general expect light winds (under 5 kts), but gusty near thunderstorms. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Potentially drier looks to arrive for early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM/SH AVIATION...PM/SH  493 FXUS62 KFFC 082350 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 750 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered (15-30%) showers and thunderstorm each afternoon and evening, increasing each day and maximizing this weekend. A few storms may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph. - Heat index values peak each afternoon between 95 and 105. Heat advisory for portions of Southeast GA Today and again on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another hot and dry once again today despite the modest low level and deeper moisture in place. Similar to yesterday, sounding data showing 500 and 700 mb temps running warm and in the 90th percentile climo range. Combined with a small cap just above the freezing level and clouds will struggle to gain any vertical growth and momentum. Changes begin to happen tonight into tomorrow as the mid level ridge anchored over FL begins to break down and shift east as a ridging develops over the western US. Additional moisture and less inhibition will become more available Thursday afternoon thus pops begin to creep back up to near normal starting Thursday PM. Temps and dpts on Thu will be similar to today thus have continued the Heat Adv. for portions of middle GA on Thursday. Looking ahead, it is likely necessary again on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorm chances during the afternoon are expected to increase as we approach the weekend, especially across the northern part of the state. A slow moving front across the southern appalachians will eventually stall out over the southeast as the long term picks up bringing unsettled weather along and north of I-20 this weekend. By Monday, the front will begin to move off increasing rain chances for the entire CWA. The models indicate cooler and drier conditions are possible as we start next week, but the timing hasn't been consistent between the runs. What that looks like will ultimately come down to how quickly the weekend's stationary front leaves the area. Widespread severe weather isn't too much of a concern later this weekend. The SPC has us in a Marginal Risk on Saturday for far NE Georgia. The threat is mainly conditional to discreet afternoon convection and the primary threat will be the possibility for damaging winds. The approaching front and afternoon convection should bring us some relief from the heat though. Highs in the low to mid 90s with apparent temps in the triple digits will continue through Saturday before falling back into the 80s by the end of the weekend. The one saving grace here is that as storms become more numerous in the afternoon, radiation cooling will help prevent a number of sites across the CWA from seeing peak heat during the afternoon and temps may not rise as high as they would without them. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 734 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A VFR cu field persists across portions of the area, and is expected to dissipate by 02Z. W winds of 6-10 kts will diminish to 3-6 kts after 02Z and through the overnight hours, increasing to 6-10 kts once again by 15Z on Thursday. Another cu field between 040-050 will develop by the late morning and persist through the afternoon. Isolated to scattered TSRA is forecast from mid- afternoon through the early evening on Thursday, warranting a PROB30 for TSRA at the ATL sites and CSG from 20-00Z. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 94 74 94 / 0 20 20 30 Atlanta 75 93 75 92 / 0 20 10 40 Blairsville 66 84 66 84 / 10 40 20 70 Cartersville 72 91 73 92 / 0 30 20 60 Columbus 75 94 75 93 / 0 30 20 20 Gainesville 73 92 73 92 / 0 20 20 30 Macon 75 95 75 94 / 0 20 10 20 Rome 71 90 72 91 / 10 40 30 60 Peachtree City 73 92 73 91 / 0 30 10 40 Vidalia 78 99 78 98 / 0 10 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ074-084>086- 096>098-104>113. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ085-086-097- 098-106-108>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...King  590 FXUS63 KMPX 082351 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 651 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe thunderstorms are possible in these areas. The primary concern is damaging winds. - Chances for additional rainfall after today are few and far between, with temperatures heating up into the 90s this weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Let's begin! Regional radar highlights decaying showers along a quasi-stationary boundary draped across southern Minnesota and into west-central Wisconsin. This boundary will be the catalyst for additional thunderstorm develop this afternoon/evening that I'll touch on later. The winner from last night's rainfall was central MN where 2 to 4" fell with lesser amounts across south-central MN, the Twin Cities Metro, and western WI. Fast forwarding to current time, overcast skies have limited temperatures to the 70s with light winds present. This has made for a rather gloomy and damp day across the region. This afternoon through Tonight... our attention turns back to the stalled frontal boundary draped across southern MN. Instability will build in along and ahead of this boundary this afternoon. Forecast soundings along I-90 paint 2000+ MLCAPE and sufficient lapse rates given the better atmospheric recovery. The limiting factor will the lack of better low level wind shear. This shouldn't prevent severe weather but it'll limit how impactful or the higher end threats. Forecast soundings are supportive of clusters or multi-celluar storms that could include an embedded supercell-type structure. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of S MN and WC WI this afternoon and evening to address the potential for severe. However, the frontal boundary's position along or just north of I-90 will limit the potential impacts to MPX's CWA. Storms initiate mid- late afternoon in SC and SE MN along the I-90 corridor. As the storms intensify they'll likely move downstream to ARX and DMX's CWA in N IA/SE MN so the window for severe weather is mostly closed, but non-zero. The primary concerns will be damaging winds and maybe a brief tornado yet again the best chance of severe exists down stream given the current position of the frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall is also possible along I-90 but the storm motion will limit the potential for any significant rainfall amounts. Thursday through Saturday... the winds of change begin to usher in a pattern change. Broad troughing over the Gulf of Alaska will begin to dig into the Pacific NW and off the West Coast. This causes our mid and upper level pattern to amplify in response to the western troughing. The ridge begins building in over the Central Plains and Mountain West Friday into Saturday. This will usher in a less active, much warmer pattern for the weekend and into next week. Sunday through the middle of next week... An impressive 600dm ridge will become centered over southern Minnesota. I am opting to lean onto the AIFS & ECMWF suite more than the GEFS for the upcoming warm up given the consistency with both the deterministic Euro and the AIFS + their ensembles. There is still some uncertainty for the exact intensity and placement, but a 597 to 600dm ridge typically means we'll have some impressive heat in place Sunday into the middle of next week. This is a fairly stand out pattern that is not typical for this portion of the CONUS. The EPS has a +3 sigma anomaly with respect to the 500mb ridge. That's about as much of an outlier event as you can get. That also means that our machine learning guide will likely be slightly cooler with respect to surface temps given this falls out of most historical cases it would use to train on. Will it be a dry heat? Well for some it will be a drier heat than we previously had, but surface dew points still end up in the mid to upper 60s each day. This is far better than if they were in the mid to upper 70s. It is too early to say if we'll have any extreme heat products, but the lack of higher humidity/Td's means we'll rely more so on actual air temps. It will also limit our rain/storm chances as the jet will be directed up and over the ridge. Any ridge rider MCS should be well into Canada. The meteorology would support potential highs in the mid to upper 90s Sunday-Tuesday time frame... with a chance of 100 degrees not out of the question depending on how things pan out. EPS has ~10% chance Monday & Tuesday across I-90 and into the Twin Cities metro so it's not a great chance, but there is a chance. BPH OUT. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers & thunderstorms have moved southeast of the area this evening, with only low chances for a brief shower at EAU this evening. We're expecting stratus to linger through the night, but there is uncertainty on just how low ceilings could all or visibility could drop overnight. Most likely we see MVFR ceilings develop around midnight & stick around through 7-9 AM, but some of the more lower-end models have IFR visibility developing area-wide. Best chances for IFR ceilings will be at EAU, & possibly MKT where the rain was heaviest this afternoon. Similar story with the visibility overnight, best chance for IFR visibility if not LIFR FOG will be at EAU followed by MKT. meanwhile other terminals could see some MVFR mist but visibility is generally expected to stay around 6 SM or higher. Winds will be light through the period , generally northwest to northerly tonight & northerly to northeasterly tomorrow. KMSP...Low confidence on the ceiling forecast this evening, with MVFR conditions looking most likely but also a rather high likelihood we remain VFR. Low chances for IFR ceilings/visibility, although some fog could develop overnight in the river valleys. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Freeborn. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...ETA  536 FXUS63 KSGF 082350 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 650 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less than 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in south central Missouri this afternoon. Most areas stay dry. - 30-50% chances of storms Thursday, and 40-70% chance Thursday night. Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes. - Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday, but cloud cover and rain chances limit confidence in excessive heat occurring. - 40-75% rain chances continue into the weekend with attendant low confidence in locations of severe and flooding risks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The closed mid-level low that has been sitting over Missouri is still very, very slowly moving eastward, currently centered just NE of the Missouri bootheel as noted in water vapor imagery. The moisture that was residing within the low has therefore also shifted east, with locally northerly flow aloft bringing in dry very dry air over much of our region as noted in our 12Z sounding. Due to the drier air, despite temperatures on track to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, dewpoints in the 60s will limit Heat Index values to below 100 F. Elsewhere, flow is somewhat more zonal, most notably within the relatively stronger flow across the northern CONUS. At the southern periphery of the stronger flow, a synoptic surface cold front is situated over NE into IA/MN. South of MO, a surface warm front is developing as a result of weak lee cyclogenesis over the OK/TX panhandle region. Low chance for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon: Due to the pocket of moisture situated within the weak closed low aloft in the bootheel region, weak small showers have fired in extreme south-central MO. This is expected to continue through the heat of the day with only a 15-20% chance of isolated showers and storms over the same region. Given the very small area of these showers as well as the isolated nature, many areas will remain dry. Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon: Thunderstorms across the central Plains are expected to be dissipating as they translate east into our region early Thursday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible along this remnant complex through Thursday morning (30-50% chance). These are expected to remain sub-severe as wind shear will be quite weak. The complex will create an Mesoscale Convective Vortex that will move east through Missouri during the day Thursday. The resulting subtle turning of winds with height ahead of the MCV will locally enhance shear (generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49) with lift along residual outflow within this regime to focus new thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon (generally after 2 PM). Short-term guidance is still a bit varied on the magnitude of shear which will influence hazards a bit, but the HREF mean suggests 20-30 kts of deep-layer shear, promoting multi-cell clusters as the main storm mode. High temperatures in the lower 90s will result in inverted-V temperature in conjunction with sufficient Theta-E diffs which could promote greater downdrafts and microbursts within any stronger storm. Therefore, damaging winds up to 60 to 70 mph will be the main risk. Any taller storm may produce small hail up to quarters at the largest size. There is a conditional risk for landspouts and/or tornadoes depending on how the MCV influences the environment. Three things need to occur for this risk to evolve. 1) The MCV needsto be strong enough to increase low-level shear/curvature. 2) Dewpoints need to be on the upper-end of the percentile spectrum (mid to upper 70s). And 3) temperatures need to be a bit cooler to lower dewpoint depressions and resulting LCLs. If these occur, some weak tornadoes will be possible. On the flipside, strong surface heating could lead to >8 C/km 0-1 km lapse rates, which in the vicinity of near surface vorticity from the MCV and synoptic fronts, could promote lanspouts. These are both very low confidence and conditional risks, however. We will need to see how conditions evolve through the day Thursday. Slight (2 of 4) Risk for flooding Thursday night: As night falls, focus then shifts to more of a flooding risk. A 30-40 kt nocturnal low-level jet is forecast to develop across southern Missouri, which will be in the vicinity of the daytime storm's outflows and the synoptic surface fronts. Convergence at the nose of the LLJ within a zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 1.8-2.0 in PWATs (ranged from HREF mean and RAP forecasts) will bring a 40-75% chance for further shower and thunderstorm development throughout Thursday night. Due to any residual outflow and the synoptic front resulting in a largely W-E orientation, parallel to the mean 850-500 mb flow, training of storms and resulting excessive rainfall and flash flooding will be possible overnight Thursday. Thermodynamics will allow for thunderstorms with rain rates up to 1-3 in/hr. That said, the orientation of the LLJ will be west-southwesterly, which may limit the overall magnitude of isentropic upglide lift which may keep coverage on the lower side keeping the flooding threat very localized to where storms train most. Anywhere that sees multiple storms may see localized amounts up to 3-5 inches. Additionally, with elevated instability and sufficient shear, large hail up to quarters will be possible, but given the warm and moist profiles, the risk is expected to be lower (5% or less within 25 miles of any point. Low confidence HeatRisk Thursday and Friday: Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 90s Thursday and Friday with moisture increasing. This may lead to Heat Index values around 100-105 F. However, with expected MCV cloud debris and outflow each day, confidence is limited in widespread excessive heat. Greater Heat Index values would be limited to areas that see the most sunshine during the daytime. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 40-75% rain chances continue through the weekend: With only weak mid-level energy traversing the central CONUS through the weekend, the synoptic thermal boundary will only slowly sag southward which will allow it to hang around the region Friday through Sunday. This will continue to bring 40-75% rain chances through Sunday (highest being 50-75% Friday night). Given little modification to the surrounding environment, some severe storms and localized flooding will continue to be possible through Sunday. At the moment, the entire area is in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe weather Friday and a Marginal (1 of 4) to Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall Friday through Sunday. Exact details are still very uncertain due to weak flow aloft making mesoscale details of each complex very important in how the location and magnitude of threats evolve each day. "Cooler" Temperatures to begin next week: An overturning wave break over the northern CONUS into the southeast states will bring more seasonable temperatures to the area to start next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. In the extended 7-14 day range, the wave break will dip into the Ozarks, bringing another heat dome to the area. The CPC gives a 60-70% chance of Heat Index values exceeding 105 Fat some point during the July 13-17 timeframe. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Initially, the region will see VFR flight conditions with south to southwesterly winds as the area remains between two systems, one to the east and one developing in the high plains. Models indicate the potential for a decaying thunderstorm complex could move in from the west or northwest by Thursday afternoon. As a result included a PROB30's for SGF and BBG as there is some uncertainty. Ceilings will remain VFR with lowest clouds at or above 15kft. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Hatch  511 FXUS64 KMOB 082350 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 650 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. - A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The forecast remains on track as the very sparse convection dissipates through mid-evening, followed by mild overnight temps in the mid 70s inland, upper 70s for our coastal communities, and around 80 degrees at the beaches. /22 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper trough now lifting across the Tennessee Valley will continue to weaken as it becomes absorbed into the westerlies through Thursday, resulting in a weak zonal flow pattern aloft through Friday. Seasonably high moisture, with PWATs locally exceeding 2 inches, along with strong instability will maintain our typical summertime pattern through Friday. Coverage appears a bit lower this afternoon compared to Thursday and Friday. Latest CAM guidance suggests scattered showers and storms developing near the coast during the morning hours on Thursday and Friday along the land breeze. This activity would be expected to shift inland by afternoon as our background low-level flow becomes more southwesterly on Thursday, allowing the sea breeze to progress a bit farther inland each afternoon. Any stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. A pattern shift takes shape this weekend into early next week as a pronounced positively tilted shortwave trough extends westward from larger-scale troughing developing off the northeast U.S. coast. As a large upper high builds over the north-central U.S., this shortwave will dive southeastward, placing the area under a northwesterly midlevel flow and driving a large-scale backdoor cold front south into the region late in the weekend into early next week. Increasing moisture ahead of this disturbance will support a gradual increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms, with scattered to numerous activity (40-60% PoPs) expected by Saturday and potentially widespread coverage in spots on Sunday and Monday. Ensemble mean PWATs climbing above the 90th percentile of climatology may favor enhanced rainfall rates, and trends will be monitored for a localized flooding threat. Uncertainty exists regarding the exact timing and southward extent of the front and shortwave progression, which will influence where the heaviest rainfall ultimately develops. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot through Saturday, with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 90s and peak afternoon heat indices in the 100-107 range. Overnight lows offer little relief with mid 70s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Increased rainfall and cloud cover along with the potential cool front entering the region may bring highs down into the 80s for many areas Sunday into early next week, especially over the interior. At the beaches, a Low risk of rip currents is expected today and Thursday before increasing to a Moderate risk on Friday for all area beaches, persisting through the weekend. JGC/98 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday afternoon. South- southwesterly winds less than 10 kts through mid-evening will become variable overnight. South-southwesterly winds near 10 kts will resume Thursday afternoon as a seabreeze moves inland. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southwest to west flow will prevail through late week, becoming southerly Friday into the weekend. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet by the weekend. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 40 Pensacola 79 93 79 92 / 10 30 20 30 Destin 81 92 81 91 / 20 20 20 30 Evergreen 74 94 74 93 / 10 40 10 50 Waynesboro 74 95 74 94 / 20 30 10 20 Camden 74 93 75 93 / 10 40 10 30 Crestview 75 95 75 93 / 10 30 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  481 FXUS64 KOUN 082349 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 649 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Diurnal storm chances are now waning but showers/storms may develop over northern Oklahoma overnight. - Storm chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through this week with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .UPDATE... Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Diurnally driven isolated convection has dissipated over north- central Oklahoma. A loose complex of convection is now moving eastward over the High Plains to our west. High resolution models show that this activity may wane before reaching the 100th meridian, but that forcing/ascent will translate eastward as a 40 kt low level jet kicks in. CAMs generate scattered convective showers/storms between 06-12z with HREF probabilities for >0.01 in at 40% from Woodward to Ponca City to just nw of OKC. Yet probs for >0.10 in are only 10-20%. Forecast soundings show this activity will generally remain rooted in the midlevels, so severe weather will be unlikely. Have increased overnight PoPs along and north of I40 into the 15-40% range. && .UPDATE... Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Quick near-term update to include 15-20% PoPs for isolated thunderstorms over northern and southeastern Oklahoma. Current radar/satellite shows localized convective initiation occurring from roughly Clinton/Weatherford to Medford along a line of towering cumulus. This is consistent with high resolution models which show an isolated/brief storm or two within this area late this afternoon/early evening. Mesoanalysis shows a pretty unstable environment (2000-3000 j/kg SBCAPE) with modest shear (30 kt effective layer) over far northern Oklahoma, so the overall severe weather threat will be low, but an isolated instance of a downburst is not impossible. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds are out of the southwest along and west of I-35 as of the noon hour. This is tracking with surface temperatures warming a degree or two faster than NBM/official guidance, which is unsurprising in that regime. Parts of central and southern Oklahoma stand a good chance of seeing their first 100-degree day of 2026. Convection should be pretty limited in scope today given the lack of cumulus development to this point. Near-term guidance suggests that we will eventually see weak convection in south central/southeast Oklahoma where surface winds will remain a little more backed and dewpoints stand a better chance of holding in the low-to-mid 70s. Dry mid-levels and hot boundary layers will promote 1,600+ J/kg of DCAPE, so wouldn't be surprised to see downbursts even with small cores. Winds remain southwesterly tonight. NBM suggests low temperatures near 80 degrees, and with the breeze remaining from that direction I'd be hard-pressed to say that it will be wrong. Meister && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tomorrow will be almost as hot as today along and south of an advancing cold front. There's a weak signal for showers just before daybreak along the front in north central Oklahoma with several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. In all likelihood, that activity will taper off during the morning hours and lead the boundary to stall there. That boundary is a potential focusing mechanism for further convection in the afternoon and evening hours across northern and western Oklahoma. A moist layer in the mid-levels may prevent ginormous DCAPE values from being realized, but a low-end downburst threat will persist. Otherwise, heat continues to be the story with a pretty good chance that we will need Heat Advisories near and just south of the front. A more organized round of storms is probable across the Central Plains late tomorrow evening with near-easterly surface winds and a decent reservoir of instability to work with. A reasonable expectation would be that storms arrive into northwest Oklahoma around 9:00 pm. Whether this is a cluster, organized MCS, or just decaying updrafts remains to be seen. The primary concerns would be damaging winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Uncertainty increases on Friday given the potential for modulation of the frontal boundary. However, that will be the focusing point for both heat risk and storm potential along and south of it - perhaps from north central Oklahoma toward the I-40 corridor. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aforementioned showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday across much of the area. Temperatures will be cooler over the weekend, however, with increasing surface dewpoints, afternoon heat indices will still be in the 100s. Mid-level ridge will shift to the north across the central and high Plains into next week, helping to keep temperatures near average across the southern Plains. As of right now, the overall synoptic pattern next week will support above average temperatures and below average precipitation. Bunker && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Generally expect VFR conditions to prevail at all sites... however...confidence is increasing somewhat that we will see scattered convective activity translate across northern Oklahoma during the 06-12z timeframe. Maintained previous 30% probabilities for modest vis restrictions and CBs/TSRA from Woodward to Ponca City/Stillwater, and extended a tempo for less confidence (10-20%) in impacts from roughly 08-12z at Clinton, Will Rogers/OKC, and Westheimer/OUN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 101 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 78 101 78 100 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 101 72 99 / 20 10 40 10 Ponca City OK 78 99 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 Durant OK 80 98 76 97 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-013-020-026- 032. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...68 SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...20  537 FXUS64 KSHV 082350 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 650 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the early evening from Toledo Bend country toward the MS River. - Quiet and dry weather will return Thursday and continue through the end of the week, with areawide highs in the low to middle 90s. - Unsettled weather looks to return Sunday and continue into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A lingering upper-trough extending from the Ohio River Valley southwest into the ArkLaTex, combined with a weak surface boundary across northeast Texas along the I-30 corridor, will provide enough instability to generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across much of the region today. Weak ridging to build across the region on Thursday in the wake of the front shifting north and the upper-trough exiting the region. Under a subsident dome of high pressure, temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 90s on both Thursday and Friday with otherwise dry conditions prevailing. A latitudinally oriented broad upper-level trough and surface front to build south across the region late in the weekend and will linger areawide through the end of the forecast period on Tuesday night. Instability associated with the trough and surface boundary will allow for periods of convection across portions of the ArkLatex each day. Additionally, with increased mixing and cloud-cover, high temperatures will be slightly cooler than what is expected for July, averaging in the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Monday and Tuesday. /05/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR should continue aside from a storm near KLFK to KMLU again on Thursday. S/SW winds will prevail 10KT or less with scattered clouds and few if any cigs. We'll have a quiet end to the week and for Saturday, but widespread convection returns for Sunday and early next week. /24/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon across the region for any isolated strong storms that develop. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 95 77 95 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 76 96 77 96 / 20 10 10 0 DEQ 73 95 76 94 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 76 97 77 97 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 74 95 76 95 / 20 10 0 0 TYR 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 77 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 76 96 76 95 / 10 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...24  581 FXUS66 KOTX 082351 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 451 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical Fire Weather: Red Flag Warnings in effect Wednesday due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. - Elevated fire weather conditions through the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Critical fire weather conditions will continue through Wednesday evening for central and eastern Washington. Weather will remain and dry through the week with breezy afternoon winds. This will keep fire weather conditions elevated through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday night through Sunday: A cold front traversing the Inland Northwest is resulting in dry and breezy conditions this afternoon and evening. Critical fire weather conditions will continue across much of central and eastern Washington through the evening. Winds will gradually weaken tonight across most areas, though breezy conditions will persist in the lee of the Cascades. Through early Friday, the region will remain under a zonal flow aloft, situated south of an upper- level trough over western Canada. Diurnal marine pushes into western Washington will tighten the cross- Cascade pressure gradient daily, driving enhanced evening winds through the Cascade gaps. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions will persist for the next couple of days, particularly through the Cascade gaps of the Cascades, due to the combination of low relative humidity and breezy winds. By late Friday, upper-level flow shifts southwesterly as a closed low migrates southeastward along the British Columbia coast and a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest. This pattern will keep temperatures warm across the Inland Northwest under the subtle influence of the ridge. On Saturday, the upper-level low along the BC coast low is projected to track northeastward, with winds increasing aloft, and generating more widespread breezy conditions during the afternoon and evening. This will bring continued elevated fire weather concerns, with the highest confidence (60-90% probability) for sustained winds exceeding 15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 20% focused in the Okanogan Valley. Monday through Thursday: Uncertainty in the synoptic pattern increases significantly next week with respect to additional systems coming off the Pacific and how far north the upper-level ridge will amplify into the Inland Northwest. If the arrival of the next system is as early as Monday night, this will stunt amplification into the INW, with temperatures remaining similar to the weekend and a risk of thunderstorms early in the week. If the Pacific systems are delayed until the Wednesday or Thursday timeframe, this would allow the upper-level ridge to build into the INW, with temperatures warming significantly and a risk for thunderstorms by mid-week. During the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe, there is a 7 to 11 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles for maximum temperatures in the NBM, highlighting this uncertainty. /vmt && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Widespread VFR will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. In the wake of an earlier passing cold front, breezy winds will continue across the region through about 03z this evening. The highest gusts are expected in the lee of the Cascade gaps, with northwesterly gusts around 30kts possible at KEAT through 07z. Winds will remain elevated in this region overnight, though elsewhere subside to 7-8kts or less. Light to modest west-southwesterly breezes expected again for Thursday, though aside from near the Cascade gaps (possibly extending to KMWH), gusts should remain under 20kts at the TAF sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 56 86 57 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 57 84 57 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 51 82 51 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 60 91 59 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 53 87 54 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 56 84 55 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 56 82 55 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 55 90 56 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 61 88 62 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 58 91 59 89 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$  769 FXUS63 KDVN 082355 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 655 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...00z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms late this evening for areas north of a line from Belle Plaine IA to Platteville WI. The main hazards will be damaging winds and heavy rain. - Additional storms are likely Thursday and Friday, with heavy downpours and isolated severe possible. - Above normal temperatures next week, with a prolonged period of heat becoming more likely. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current radar and satellite observations show areas of convection along a broken line from northeast NE to west-central WI. These storms will be much of the story for tonight. As the shortwave moves east, storms are expected to grow upscale into a line and move southeast, reaching the Highway 20 and I-380 corridors around 9-10 PM. However, the question is whether they will decay or continue. While CAPE will be sufficient to sustain any updrafts at 1500-2000 J/kg, low lapse rates and limited shear will will be limiting factors. Guidance still remains quite mixed, with the 12Z REFS favoring storms continuing while the 12Z HREF has the storms decay as they reach eastern Iowa. If storms are able to maintain themselves, there is potential for strong to severe storms. This appears most likely for areas north of a line from Belle Plaine IA to Platteville WI. Damaging winds will be the primary severe threat due to DCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Heavy rain will also be possible, which may pose a flash flooding threat, especially in areas that received heavy rain last week. As a result, both SPC and WPC have a Slight/Level 2 risk for severe storms and excessive rainfall for tonight north of a line from Belle Plaine IA to Platteville WI. Additional storm chances are in store for Thursday as a boundary moves southward across the region. A similar environment to today will be in place with moderate instability, low lapse rates, and 15- 25 kts of shear, as well as the potential for lingering showers and clouds from overnight. Thunderstorms will be possible as the boundary passes through, but the threat of strong to severe storms will be low. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday... A final shortwave on Friday will bring the last near-term chances for rainfall. Atmospheric moisture will be greatest along and south of Interstate 80, with guidance showing up to 1.5 inch PWATs and dewpoints in the low 70s. Showers and storms are likely, though severe storms are not expected due to marginal deep layer shear. However, if a convectively augmented MCV were to take place upstream enhancing the wind field, then some severe storms would be possible. Saturday and beyond... Model guidance continues to show a large anomalous upper ridge (00z NAEFS/ENS 2.0 to 2.8 sigma from their ensemble mean) building into the central CONUS. In fact, the 00z GEFS/ENS/GEPS has this ridge encompassing most of the lower 48 by 12z Tuesday with its center not that far away from the local area. As a result, a prolonged period of dry conditions, above normal temps, and building heat is likely. Factoring in evapotranspiration of maturing crops, more heat headlines may be needed for at least a portion of the area. Apparent T probabilities of 95 degrees or higher off the LREF (100 member ensemble of the GEFS/ENS/GEPS) are in the 30-50% range Tuesday-Thursday. If that were not enough, the latest CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook has a Moderate (40-60%) risk of extreme heat for most of the CWA July 16th-18th. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Main TAF concern and challenge is trying to time a line of sctrd thunderstorms down out of northeast IA and how much they hold together and impact the sites. Tried to time a 3-4 hour window at CID, DBQ, and MLI using the latest CAMs and extrapolating upstream RADAR movement. May still be a hour or two slow as compared to reality if the storms speed up some. Chance of them produce gusty outflow winds ahead of them up to at least 35 KTs at CID and DBQ, weaker by the time the remnants of the convection get to MLI later on. Most models really decay the storms as they move southeastward through the area tonight, and BRL may stay dry until Thursday morning. Away from the storms, mainly VFR conditions with light and variable winds. With the light winds, there may be some MVFR fog toward dawn at a few sites. Expect a wind switch to the west-northwest by late Thu morning. Isolated showers and storms possible Thu afternoon but will leave out TAF mention at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ellingworth LONG TERM...Ellingworth/Gross AVIATION...12  713 FXUS65 KFGZ 082354 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 454 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue over portions of eastern and central Arizona into this evening, with less activity Thursday and Friday. Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up this weekend and into next week. Dangerous heat is also expected through the period for portions of northern Arizona, including Glen and Marble Canyons and the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon. && .DISCUSSION...The ridge that has been driving the influx of moisture into northern AZ has flattened and is retrograding to the west. This will begin to introduce a drier westerly flow aloft, however plenty of moisture still lingers across the area. Today remains a fairly similar setup to yesterday, with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms currently firing over eastern AZ. Storms intensity is just a little higher than previous days, though the primary hazards from storms remain gusty outflow winds, lightning, and small hail. Localized downpours will also lead to a low risk for flash flooding over sensitive areas (burn scars). By Thursday and Friday, the flattened ridge establishes to our west. This will push most of the convective activity to our south under drier northwest flow, though some storms will likely hang around the White Mountains each day. By the weekend, the ridge is forecast to strengthen and rapidly shift to our northeast. This would be a favorable flow pattern for the North American Monsoon. The ensemble mean PW approaches the 90th percentile for this time of year by Monday. The current forecast calls for precipitation chances ramping up on Sunday-Monday with the best coverage of storms along/south of the Mogollon Rim. Stay tuned for further updates on this period! Heat will also be a concern through the week with above normal July temperatures forecasted each day. The Extreme Heat Warning for the Grand Canyon below 4000 ft has been extended through Sunday, with temperatures in excess of 110 degrees expected each day at Phantom Ranch. An Extreme Heat Warning has also been issued for Marble and Glen Canyons on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures forecasted to reach moderate-extreme HeatRisk. && .AVIATION...Thursday 09/00Z through Friday 10/00Z...Primarily VFR conditions. Brief MVFR and gusty/erratic winds possible in ISOLD- SCT SHRA/TSRA through around 03Z, primarily east of US89/I17. Winds are SW 10-20 kts through 03Z, becoming light and VRB overnight. SW-W winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts after 18Z Thursday. OUTLOOK...Friday 10/00Z through Sunday 12/00Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD storms possible around the White Mtns Friday, spreading NW to around KFLG by Saturday afternoon. Winds SW-W 10-20 kts Friday and 5-15 kts Saturday. Light and VRB or terrain driven wind during the overnight periods. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Hot and mainly dry conditions, aside from isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon in the White Mountains. Winds west/southwest 10-20 mph each day. Saturday through Monday...Hot, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Wetting rains possible in any stronger storm. Winds light and variable Saturday, becoming south/southeast 5- 15 mph on Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Saturday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  860 FXUS64 KHUN 082357 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 657 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Convection has finally started popping across the TN Valley with greater coverage currently in NW AL. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening and capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Once storms dissipate later this evening, winds will slack to become light and variable. With all the moisture in place, this will allow for patchy fog development. Fog coverage could increase if cloud cover decreases further than forecasted. Lows will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 On Thursday, that open wave will weaken and continue to lift northeastward but the stationary boundary that scooted southward may stall over the TN Valley. This will bring low to medium chances (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. These storms can create gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However, would not rule out a downburst with the PWATS ~1.6", DCAPE ~1300 J/Kg, ML CAPE 1600-1900 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees. SPC has placed us in a Marginal outlook (risk level 1/5) on Friday. A weak trough will be along the eastern seaboard with a few weak disturbances sliding through ahead of a shortwave up in the Midwest. Friday afternoon and evening forecast soundings look even better for an opportunity to see downbursts. Instability will increase towards 3,000 J/kg, PWATS ~1.8, ThetaE difference ~30C and pretty steep low level lapse rates. Local strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the primary hazards. Looking into Saturday, forecast soundings suggest another potential afternoon and evening with storms that could produce downbursts. The storms may be the main story, however do not forget about the heat. Heat index values Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Stay weather aware Thursday through Saturday and ensure you stay safe indoors, outdoors, and on the go. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures will be near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much of a threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration. Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may alsoresult in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions have returned to the terminals after afternoon thunderstorms affected the region. Clear to mostly clear skies are forecast overnight and patchy dense fog may affect the TAF sites. Confidence in this was too low to include in the TAFs at this time but trends will be monitored this evening and fog may be added for the 06z update. Additional thunderstorms are forecast tomorrow, with higher confidence in coverage near the HSV terminal. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....JMS LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25  890 FXUS65 KTFX 082357 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 557 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms across Southwest and Central Montana Thursday and Friday afternoon. - Trending hotter toward the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday looking hottest. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1201 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Upper level troughing well off to the northwest over northern BC will progress eastward through the day today, eventually emerging into northwestern AB by the evening. Flow aloft across the region will largely be zonal, but be ever so slightly cyclonic in nature given the disturbance off to the northwest. This weakly cyclonic nature of the flow will combine with sufficient daytime heating to result in at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region by mid-afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings suggest wind will be the primary concern with the strongest thunderstorms, but increasing shear through the afternoon combine with respectable instability will yield a large hail threat as well. This activity exits eastward late evening or early overnight. The main upper level disturbance passes eastward into Thursday, though some lingering instability across SW MT will yield a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon. Thereafter an upper level ridge begins to build in across the Central CONUS and interior west, which will allow for temperatures to climb heading into the weekend. While the hottest conditions look to remain off to the east and southeast, afternoon temperatures rising well into the 90s in many areas this weekend will pose impacts to those with outdoor plans. Plan for plenty of hydration and rest breaks if planning to be outside this weekend. Heading into next week the ridge looks to slide eastward ever so slightly, which looks to open the door for some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall through this Evening... Confidence has increased through the morning that an isolated severe thunderstorm or two will occur through the timeframe that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of Southwest through North Central Montana, generally along and east of a Havre, to Great Falls, to Helena, to Butte, to Big Hole Pass line. BUFKIT soundings across these areas show deep inverted-V's with CIGS of 9-12kft, which would suggest that damaging winds would be the primary hazard for these areas. With that being said BUFKIT soundings over the plains of Central and North Central Montana, especially across Fergus and Blaine Counties, do support sufficient instability within the hail growth zone for the potential of hailstones to approach 1" but less than ideal shear will likely be the limiting factor for hail to exceed severe criteria. Hot Temperatures this Weekend... Climate anomaly indicators continue to support the potential for an unusual to very unusual period of hot temperatures, with respect to early to mid-July climatology, across the Northern Rockies; especially along and east of a Lewistown, to Helena, to Chief Joseph Pass line where EFIs are in excess of 0.6. This is not to say that areas north and west of this line will not also see hot temperatures, but with respect to July climatology readings will not be as anomalous. The tables below depict Low End (NBM5.0 10th Percentiles), Most Likely (50th Percentiles), and High End (NBM5.0 90th Percentiles) scenarios with respect to high and low temperatures over the weekend; with larger spreads between the three scenarios suggesting greater uncertainty due to a combination of cloud cover/wind speeds and directions/latent heat release while smaller spreads suggest greater certainty. Saturday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 83 | 87 | 91 Cut Bank 89 | 93 | 97 Havre 93 | 100 | 104 Great Falls 94 | 99 | 103 Lewistown 91 | 96 | 100 Helena 93 | 98 | 101 White Sulphur Springs 91 | 95 | 97 Bozeman 95 | 98 | 100 Dillon 91 | 96 | 99 Ennis 92 | 96 | 98 West Yellowstone 86 | 90 | 91 Sunday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 78 | 87 | 94 Cut Bank 84 | 93 | 99 Havre 92 | 101 | 107 Great Falls 93 | 100 | 106 Lewistown 92 | 99 | 106 Helena 92 | 99 | 106 White Sulphur Springs 92 | 99 | 103 Bozeman 97 | 101 | 105 Dillon 92 | 98 | 103 Ennis 96 | 100 | 103 West Yellowstone 90 | 94 | 96 Sat. Night's Low Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 55 | 58 | 63 Cut Bank 54 | 59 | 66 Havre 59 | 62 | 68 Great Falls 57 | 62 | 67 Lewistown 55 | 59 | 64 Helena 61 | 64 | 68 White Sulphur Springs 53 | 57 | 60 Bozeman 57 | 61 | 65 Dillon 55 | 58 | 62 Ennis 57 | 60 | 63 West Yellowstone 47 | 52 | 57 Sun. Night's Low Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 49 | 58 | 65 Cut Bank 50 | 60 | 68 Havre 56 | 63 | 71 Great Falls 57 | 63 | 70 Lewistown 54 | 59 | 66 Helena 61 | 67 | 71 White Sulphur Springs 54 | 58 | 63 Bozeman 57 | 62 | 66 Dillon 56 | 61 | 65 Ennis 57 | 60 | 65 West Yellowstone 49 | 54 | 59 At this time these scenarios would tend to suggest that while daytime temperatures will be hot across most areas, especially on Sunday, temperatures will cool sufficiently enough during the overnight hours to provide some relief from the heat. This relief offsets the need for Extreme Heat highlights at this time, but at the event draws closer Heat Advisories may be need for some && .AVIATION... 09/00Z TAF Period Scattered thunderstorms will continue moving east across Southwest to Central Montana until 03Z this evening with some storms capable of producing severe gusts over 55 kts and hail up to 1". MVFR conditions can occur within precipitation otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the evening. A chance for MVFR/IFR conditions is still possible over North Central MT and KHVR due to mist/low stratus between 10-16Z Thursday morning but should not be as widespread as Wednesday morning as most low level moisture has eroded. - Akins && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 55 88 55 93 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 54 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 56 88 56 91 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 52 88 54 90 / 20 10 10 0 WYS 45 83 45 84 / 20 20 30 0 DLN 50 86 52 89 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 56 88 56 92 / 60 0 0 0 LWT 52 83 53 89 / 40 10 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls