304 FXUS65 KRIW 090003 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 603 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly taper off this evening, with most activity done by 9 PM MDT. Until then gusty outflow wind of 45 to 55 mph will remain possible. - Warming trend through the weekend with a downward trend for thunderstorm activity as drier air moves into the region. - The hottest weather of the year arrives this weekend, with many all-time record high temperatures possible. The best chance of all time record high temperatures will be Sunday afternoon. - The extremely hot and dry conditions will result in near- critical fire weather conditions for the end of this week into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 More clearing from the overnight hours than yesterday that will give way to a bit better instability from Sweetwater to Natrona Counties. Radar is starting to increase in activity off the Uintas that will eventually push into southern Sweetwater County in the next hour and expand north and east through the remainder of the afternoon. Eastern Fremont to Natrona Counties will be of concern from 1600-1800L pushing east of the CWA by 1900L. The other area of note continues to be Johnson County for later in the afternoon before sunset with storms coming in off the Bighorns from Montana. However, the instability may not be quite as high with HiRes models completely missing the early morning convection that rolled in from Yellowstone straight east into Johnson County that looks to be finally dissipating as it moves into eastern portions of the county. Main threats still will be outflow winds as per usual over 50 mph being possible. Dewpoint depressions don't look quite as good as yesterday but severe gusts always still possible, even with the green blobs out of radar range. Heat still on for the weekend into next week with NBM still pinging the widespread triple digits, stay tuned! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 I have a question for you this morning. What do these things have in common: gas pressure and volume, supply and demand and speed and travel time. If you answered inverse relationships, you would be right. And that is what we will have over the next week, as the temperature goes up, the chance of convection goes down. Today will be somewhat similar to yesterday. Another shortwave will be moving through the area. We also continue to have fairy steep low and mid level lapse rates. Instability values are also decent, with some portions of the area (mainly the northeastern portions of the area) having over 1000 J/Kg of CAPE and lifted indices as low as minus 5. There will be one difference though, and this will be a trend over the next few days. And that is that precipitable water values are a lower than yesterday, especially West of the Divide. But even East of the Divide, values are 10 to 20 percent lower. It is still around 130 percent of normal though. As a result, it will be another day anywhere from a 1 in 5 to 2 out of 5 chance of a shower or thunderstorm, with the best chance in the afternoon and evening and across northern and far southern Wyoming. The lowest chance will be across the west with less than a 1 in 10 chance. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, near to somewhat above normal. As for any stronger storms, the best chance would be over Johnson County where there is a marginal risk, with strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail the main threats. Strong wind gusts will be a threat with any shower or thunderstorm though, even further west where dew point depressions will be larger. The downward trend in convection continues on Thursday asdrier works a little further east. There will still be some convection around, but most would be confined to East of the Divide again and especially in Johnson and Natrona Counties where the deepest moisture will remain. Temperatures look largely similar to today. The inverse relationship really begins on Friday as ridging over the desert southwest begins to push northward with rising heights and temperatures aloft. This is the day when below normal precipitable waters will push across the entire area. We can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm, mainly over the northern mountains, but even here the chance is less than 1 out of 5. Temperatures will also begin to really rise, with the normally warmer spots seeing high temperatures approaching 100. It is Saturday when we really begin to throw some coal into the blast furnace, otherwise known as a death ridge. Heights across the area will climb to over 5950 meters at 500 millibars, and bring definitely the hottest weather of the year. The NBM ensemble gives a greater than 1 out of 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees in locations 5200 feet or below, with a nearly 100 percent chance in the warmer spots likely from Thermopolis up to Greybull. All locations below 6500 feet have a 4 out of 5 chance of temperatures over 90 degrees. Some records will likely fall on this day. With the dry air in place and warm temperatures aloft, the chance of convection looks just about nil. However, the heat looks to peak on Monday. This mornings guidance shows 700 millibar temperatures climbing as high as 24 degrees celsius. This combined with nearly full sunshine will lead to one of the hottest days in quite a while. Ensemble guidance shows a nearly 100 percent chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees below 5500 feet, and places like Rock Springs, Green River and even Jackson have a greater than 1 out 3 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees. When we go up to 105 degrees, ensemble guidance gives a greater than 4 out of 5 chance of this from Thermopolis to Greybull, with Riverton even having a 1 out of 2 chance. And going up even further, to 110, there is a 2 out of 5 chance a place like Greybull or Worland could reach this temperature. We could see some all time high temperatures fall on this day as the 5980 500 millibar ridge will be centered just about over Wyoming. We should begin to take a couple of degrees off of the highs on Monday as the ridge retreats to the east just a bit. However, most areas below 5500 feet will again have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees. And with the ridge moving East, some moisture, mainly of the mid level variety will begin to come around the back side of the ridge. A couple of storms are possible on Monday, but chances increase more on Tuesday and into Wednesday. With the low levels remaining rather dry, these thunderstorms would produce more wind than rain though. Convection should be on the isolated side though with most locations not seeing one on any given day. Temperatures will drop somewhat from the blast furnace levels of the weekend, but look to remain above normal through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 550 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through sunset across the northern-third and southern-third of Wyoming this evening. The northern storms have the potential to produce brief heavy rain, small hail, and wind gusts around 35 kt. Impacts from this northern activity are most likely at COD, WRL, and BYG. Across the southern portion of the state, including RKS, the primary hazard will be wind gusts around 45kts given dry air and strong downdrafts. Convection will be more isolated in nature over the central-third of the state. Moststorms will end around sunset, with a few lingering showers through 09/0600Z. Other than convective outflows, wind speeds decrease to less than 10kts at all terminals between sunset and 09/0600Z. Isolated showers and storms return Thursday. Confidence is highest at KRKS where a PROB30 for -TSRA and gusty outflow has been added. Elsewhere, confidence is less than 30 percent. All terminals are forecast to be VFR through the period. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...CNJ/VandenBoogart  474 FXUS61 KBOX 090006 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 806 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Rip Current Statement is in effect through this evening for eastern and ocean facing beaches in Massachusetts. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 pm this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Becoming warmer with increasing humidity through the end of the work week. - Warm, humid weather returns late in the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days but better chances looking to be on Friday. - Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Becoming warmer with increasing humidity through the end of the work week. High pressure and mostly clear skies continue through most of Thursday. 925mb temperatures rising to near 20C and plenty of sunshine will allow for surface temperatures to begin to creep up above seasonable norms... likely near 90 across most of southern New England by Thursday. Humidity will begin to increase under broad WSW flow, with dewpoints increasing to near or just above 70 (at times) Thursday. A cold front moving through Thursday evening could bring chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the night/overnight, but the highest risk currently remains in western MA. A Rip Current Statement has also been issued through this evening for eastern MA, primarily for ocean facing beaches, due to prolonged northeasterly flow and 5+ ft seas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered thunderstorms along a cold front Friday afternoon to early evening. Although severe weather potential looks minimal at this time, lightning and torrential downpours are the main risks. Warm and humid weather continues into Friday to go along with partly to mostly cloudy skies. A cold front will be gradually sagging southward from northern New England during the early afternoon in northern MA and reaching the southern CT-RI-MA coastline by early evening. This will pose a better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop than compared to Thursday. The biggest uncertainties specific to the thunderstorm forecast are the degree of instability we can muster and how quickly will the front progress offshore. Both the 12z NAM and 12z GFS capture the instability envelope well, with the NAM's CAPE values around 1500- 2500 J/kg due to its high-dewpoint bias, while the GFS's overmixing bias shows considerably lower values at around 500 J/kg or less. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle; shear values are also on the lower side at around 30 kt, which should mitigate or limit any organized severe weather potential outside of water-loaded downdrafts. The main risks looks to be lightning and slow-moving heavy downpours, which could lead to instances of street flooding in areas that see repeated thunderstorms. Latest guidance indicates 700- 500 mb heights which become increasingly parallel to the southward- sagging frontal boundary, which adds to the risk for slower- moving storms and also casts some uncertainty when we clear out, with the Canadian guidance suggesting post-frontal light rains lingering into part of Saturday along the South Coast. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend into early next week. Even if the cold front from Friday night takes a little bit longer to fully clear out from the South Coast, we should be trending drier by Saturday late morning. The 500 mb pattern then transitions to one of cyclonic flow/troughing in the mean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to mid 80s) and lower humidity levels than experienced for late in the week. Weekend appears favorable for outdoor plans with nice summer weather. We'll be on the far western periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge which latest guidance still shows reaching to nearly 600 dm building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We still might need to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the ridge but it looks as though the weekend into early next week ends up drier than not. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAF Update: Wednesday night...High confidence. VFR. Light and variable winds becoming southwest. Thursday...Moderate confidence. VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible after 20Z across the western terminals. Thursday night...Moderate confidence. Lowering clouds moving in with areas of MVFR and possibly IFR. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Friday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Morning...High confidence. SCA conditions continue in the the coastal waters through this evening with NE wind gusts around 25 kts. Conditions improve overnight into Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. A weak front approaches the region later Thursday with showers and thunderstorms possible over the southern waters. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007- 014>016-019-022-024. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250- 254-255. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/McMinn AVIATION...Loconto/McMinn/Birchfield MARINE...Loconto/McMinn  554 FXUS63 KDTX 090007 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 807 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance of showers and non-severe thunderstorms along and north of I-69 this evening and tonight. - Thunderstorms will spread southward while increasing in coverage and intensity Thursday and Thursday night. Isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards. The best chance for the marginally severe storms looks to be across the Detroit Metro Area and points south Thursday afternoon and evening. - Dry weather with near-normal temperatures settles in for the weekend. - A heat wave is possible next week (3 consecutive days of 90+ degrees). && .AVIATION... VFR conditions across southeast Michigan this evening with light winds of less than 10 knots out of the west-southwest and lingering FEW/SCT clouds around 5-7kft. A slow moving frontal boundary will lead to increasingly lower ceilings and shower and thunderstorm chances mid to late tomorrow morning with the thunderstorm chances focused mainly in the afternoon. Will maintain the PROB30 chances until there is greater confidence in coverage. MBS will likely see an earlier time window for thunderstorms tomorrow, but may also seeing showers this evening as activity develops across central Michigan this evening. Coverage looks too sparse at this time to include any PROB30/TEMPO for showers this evening at MBS. D21/DTW Convection...Scattered thunderstorms remain possible Thursday afternoon within the 17-21Z window. Most likely start time is around 19Z. Two or three total rounds of storms are possible before Friday morning. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for thunder Thursday afternoon and/or evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 DISCUSSION... Gradual height falls into tomorrow as a series of upper level disturbances track through the Great Lakes region, helping to slowly drive the cold front and moisture plume over the northern Great Lakes south. Although the 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge does weaken and becomes less organized tomorrow. Will continue to favor the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity over the north half of the CWA this evening into tomorrow morning. In line with the 12z HRRR, it looks like the bulk of activity in the late afternoon will reside over the Detroit Metro area and locations south. Bulk of model solutions still only indicating MLcapes up around 1000 J/kg with weak wind shear (25 knots or less of 0-6 KM bulk shear). NAM remains one of the more aggressive solutions, with MLcapes of 1500-2000 J/kg. With higher DCAPE values and machine learning highlighting Detroit Metro area with damaging wind threat, marginal risk still looks justified. With weak mid level lapse rates and weaker wind fields, we would expect mostly strong, sub-severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours. The cold front looks to reach the southern Michigan border by 12z Friday, and then more or less holds stationary or washes out. There is a low chance of some spotty leftover showers across south half of the CWA Friday morning, with a diurnal flareup possible in the afternoon as main 500 MB trough axis crosses Lake Michigan. A building upper level ridge (~600 DAM at 500 MB) will establish over the Northern Plains this weekend. The ridge center looks to be far enough west that the Central Great Lakes will remain on the fringe and susceptible to a shortwave or two diving southeast from Central Canada, triggering isolated-scattered showers for the second half of the weekend into Monday. The upper level ridge then looks to fold over and an extension of the west-east axis arrives for Tuesday and lingers in Wednesday. Highs in the low to mid 90slooks likely both those days, but with manageable dew pts in the low to mid 60s expected, heat indices look to fall short of 100 degrees. MARINE... Southern Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie shore look to remain relatively calm this evening through the overnight hours with a light breeze out of the southwest. Northern Lake Huron and the Saginaw Bay area have the possibility of some rain showers tonight, along with some modest wind flow veering from the south to southwest through the overnight hours. Winds can be expected to be in the 10 to 15 knot range this afternoon/evening, with gusts of 20 knots possible. Any thunderstorm threat this evening would be limited to the bay area, where locally strong wind gusts could occur. Tomorrow we expect to have a weak low pressure system trek across North Lower Michigan, bringing the chance for showers and even an isolated severe weather threat from Saginaw Bay down to the Lake Erie shore. The main threat for any thunderstorms that could develop tomorrow would be damaging wind gusts. Nonetheless Lake Huron and Saginaw bay can expect light winds veering from the southwest to the north throughout the day tomorrow, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible depending on the positioning of the low pressure tomorrow. Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie shore can expect light winds as well tomorrow veering from the southwest to the west throughout the day tomorrow. Friday onwards a high pressure system is expected to develop over the region, bringing warmer and calmer weather throughout the weekend. HYDROLOGY... A slow moving cold front settles through southern Lower Michigan Thursday and Thursday night, serving as the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area. Basin average rainfall of a quarter to half an inch is expected, with a chance of near 1 inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm coverage. The slow movement of the front could also produce more than one round of thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than 1 inch within a few hours time. Flooding potential in this scenario is still limited to minor flooding of urban and other prone areas. Scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers into Friday, mainly south of M-59, before coming to an end Friday evening. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......ZB/TF HYDROLOGY....SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  765 FXUS62 KCAE 090010 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 810 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion to remove mention of convection for this evening. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Hot conditions continue across the area, with limited chances for thunderstorms through Thursday. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Hot conditions continue across the area, with limited chances for thunderstorms through Thursday. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front. Latest 500mb analysis shows a mid-level ridge axis remains centered across the eastern forecast area this evening. This along with a stable layer aloft has kept the convection at bay across the region with only an isolated shower or two developed earlier this afternoon. Everything has since dissipated and expect warm and dry conditions to continue into the overnight hours. A trough over the lower Mississippi Valley is expected to move eastward tomorrow and lift northward around the ridge over the area. As it does, the latest guidance stretches it out some. So, while the chances for thunderstorms are a bit higher tomorrow due to this, they do remain on the low side (up to ~20%) suggesting similar weather conditions to today. The latest model guidance for Friday suggests a higher risk for thunderstorms, mainly across the northern and western counties. An approaching front for the weekend brings a greater chance for shower and thunderstorm activity to the region. Flow aloft is also forecast to become more zonal, which could lead to the front and associated precipitation chances lingering into next week. As has been emphasized over the past week, the ongoing heat remains a concern. Temperatures are expected to remain 3-6 degrees above normal through Saturday, with heat indices reaching the low to mid-100s. Most locations should remain below Heat Advisory criteria (108F), so no Heat Advisories are anticipated at this time. Continue to practice heat safety, especially with prolonged heat expected to persist. Please remain diligent if you have outdoor activities planned. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Shower and storm activity have dissipated across the region this evening with only some scattered cu remaining. Winds will remain gusty through sunset, 10-12 knots. Otherwise light winds expected overnight, strengthening again Thursday morning with gusts up to 20 knots Thursday afternoon. No notable vsby or cig restrictions expected during the TAF period with only a few isolated storms likely again Thursday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon storms this weekend and into early next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...7/29 AVIATION...42  180 FXUS63 KMKX 090015 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 715 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms are possible this evening mainly north of a Mineral Point, to Madison, to Sheboygan line. Damaging winds and large hail are the main hazards. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding may occur in the same areas. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again Thursday afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and small hail may occur. - Hot and muggy conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 715 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Shower/storm chances will persist into this evening, largely along and north of I-94. Decent instability and marginal shear will keep the chance going for a severe storm or two through late evening, with strong winds the main concern along with locally heavy rainfall. A chance for showers and a few storms will continue into tonight as deep moisture lingers and a shortwave slowly moves through. Latest short term models have generally backed off on coverage of showers/storms after midnight, though. May need to trend precip chances downward the second half of the night if radar trends match what models are showing. DDV && .SHORT TERM... Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight and Thursday: An outflow boundary continues to trigger showers over Racine County early this afternoon with likely some development for Kenosha County soon. Otherwise a cluster of storms is moving ewd across far nrn IA and adjacent MN. This area of storms has developed in a region of weak warm, moist advection and on the srn periphery of a vorticity maximum that stretches from central WI into se MN. Additional showers and storms are currently developing over central WI as well. Expect convection to grow in coverage and intensity the remainder of the afternoon over the aforementioned areas as MLCAPE builds to 1500-2000 J/KG. Effective shear will range from 30-40 kts over central WI but decreasing to 20 kts over srn WI with a lessening of overall shear toward the early evening. Nevertheless, enough CAPE and storm organization will support a decent potential for severe thunderstorms for a time toward central WI. For later in the evening and overnight, more of a locally heavy rain and urban and small stream flood potential will exist. This is supported by a wly 25 kt low level jet and associated thetae advection within the thermal ridge and the approaching weak shortwave trough from the nw. This is in conjunction with PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches and weak corfidi vectors. The CAMs and model QPF suggest the flood threat should remain isolated. Ongoing scattered storms and additional storms are then expected on Thu with the passage of the cold front and shortwave trough. Only marginal CAPE is expected with rather weak effective shear continuing. Thus the severe threat will be very low as well as an isolated heavy rain threat. Nely winds will bring a slightly cooler and drier airmass for Friday as high pressure builds from the nrn Great Lakes into WI. Seasonal temps and humidity is forecast. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Saturday through Wednesday: Primarily dry weather is predicted this weekend through the middle of next week. An upper-level ridge building over the Plains and moving toward the Great Lakes region this weekend with high geopotential height values alongside a surface high pressure system are likely to persist during this period. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 80s range, increasing into the low 90s next week. Zawlocki/Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 715 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Shower/storm chances will persist into this evening, largelyalong and north of I-94. Decent instability and marginal shear will keep the chance going for a severe storm or two through late evening, with strong winds the main concern along with locally heavy rainfall. A chance for showers and a few storms will continue into tonight as deep moisture lingers and a shortwave slowly moves through. Latest short term models have generally backed off on coverage of showers/storms after midnight, though. May need to trend precip chances downward the second half of the night if radar trends match what models are showing. An additional round of showers and storms will be possible tomorrow, particulary during the afternoon hours as the surface trough drops through southern Wisconsin. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with any stronger storms. A round of MVFR ceilings will be possible late tonight into Thursday morning, particularly northwest of a line from Monroe to Port Washington, with mainly VFR conditions returning for the afternoon hours. Winds will largely be light and variable tonight, becoming westerly Thursday morning and shifting to the north from north to south during the afternoon as the surface trough drops southward. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure around 30.1 inches will remain over the Ohio Valley today and tonight. Modest south winds will continue today, as weak low pressure around 29.8 inches and an accompanying cold front approaches from Upper Michigan and northwest Wisconsin. Light to modest southerly winds tonight will become north behind the frontal passage Thursday into Thursday night. Winds will become north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.1 inches builds into the the region. The high should continue to bring light to modest winds for the weekend. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  334 FXUS61 KCTP 090018 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 818 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Upgrade to level 2/4 excessive rain and flash flood risk for south central and southeast PA Thursday afternoon & evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Torrential downpours and strong to locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may impact portions of south central PA Thursday afternoon and evening && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Torrential downpours and strong to locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may impact portions of south central PA Thursday afternoon and evening Most CAM guidance indicates a forward-propagating tstm cluster moving across southern PA/northern MD and the DelMarVa area tomorrow afternoon before tracking offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by late evening. SPC upgraded to a level 2/5 SLGT risk which clips southern York and Lancaster Counties. The remainder of the Lower Susquehanna Valley is in a level 1/5 MRGL risk with potential for strong to perhaps locally damaging wind gusts dependent/contingent on location of strongest storms. The best CAPE and shear overlap is forecast farther to the south over the DelMarVa. HREF shows 2+ inch pwats available this area to drive very intense rain rates and increased flash flood risk. WPC will upgrade the excessive rainfall outlook to level 2/4 for Thursday in their updated forecast later this afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCT-BKN low clouds will linger through this evening, particularly along and east of the Alleghenies where a corridor of moisture at 925 mb (RH values around 75-90%) will persist. This moisture will trend toward eastern Pennsylvania overnight as winds veer aloft over the western 2/3rds of the Commonwealth & allow for drier air to filter in. Areas of mist/fog will likely develop where low-level clouds clear out (KBFD/KJST/KAOO/KUNV), with cloud ceilings expected to develop and lower to MVFR-IFR where the moisture lingers (KIPT/KMDT/KLNS). Furthermore, spotty showers will be possible along and north of the PA/NY border (less than PROB30 for impacts at KBFD/KIPT at this time), with scattered shower/thunderstorm activity along the Mason-Dixon border overnight (PROB30s for -SHRA/SHRA at KMDT & KLNS between 10Z-14Z Thursday). Gradual improvements to VFR are expected through the morning as overnight mist/fog mixes out & low ceilings over eastern Pennsylvania lift through the early afternoon. A shortwave approaching from the Ohio Valley will spur on more numerous showers and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon, especially over southern/central portions of the state where better instability (MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) and forcing ahead of the shortwave overlap. Ample moisture (precipitable water values approaching 2") suggests that heavy rain may accompany this convection, with visibility restrictions to MVFR-IFR likely in the stronger showers/storms. Water-laden updrafts and modest low-level lapse rates (6-7 C/km) may also support locally gusty winds with these storms. Outlook... Fri...T-storm impacts likely during the afternoon. AM low clouds and fog possible. Sat...Reduced chance and more limited coverage of PM showers/t-storm. Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR/no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Teare  544 FXUS62 KILM 090021 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 821 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 00Z aviation discussion. The heat threat has ended for the day. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)The heatwave continues in the near term. 2)Relief from the heat and good rain chances this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...The heatwave continues in the near term. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Although the ridge that has been overhead will flatten in the coming days it will take a more significant shift in the synoptic pattern to temper afternoon heat below advisory thresholds through Saturday. The low amplitude aloft that results of the flattened ridge will help some lower dewpoints to mix down away from the coast for HI values that remain in advisory thresholds as they did today. Of lower confidence is areas close to the coast where dewpoints could remain higher and HI values get closer to but generally fall short of Warning criteria as they did today. For this reason and to avoid possibly confusing double headlines have held off on a Heat Watch for tomorrow especially after collab w neighbors where we feel HI values will fall short (except for CHS where higher dewpoints have pooled and HIs of 110+ have materialized). KEY MESSAGE 2...Relief from the heat and good rain chances this weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The pattern change needed as mentioned above may take place on Sunday. The ridge that has been plaguing the east for quite some time will be shifting over the west-central part of the nation and be amplifying considerably. This will drive a cold front into the area. With plenty of antecedent heat and moisture the setup should be quite stormy Sunday and Monday, some storms possibly on the strong side. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. Not anticipating any restrictions tonight with light SW winds. Stronger WSW winds 10-15 kts will build in tomorrow possibly higher right along the coast in the afternoon with the seabreeze. Mostly dry conditions expected. Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... Little to no deviations from SW flow as typical of the time of year. Wind speeds do increase Thursday into Friday as Atlantic High retrogrades and the Piedmont trough strengthens. A window of SCA late Friday or Friday night. A cold front on Sunday will bring veering winds even as speeds tick down a bit, but wave faces could still steepen from the directional variability. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...LEW KEY MESSAGES...MBB DISCUSSION...MBB AVIATION...LEW MARINE...MBB  681 FXUS61 KOKX 090023 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 823 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and localized flash flood threat on Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. Increasingly warm and muggy on Thu and Fri, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s for one day on Friday. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Good agreement on Mid-Mississippi River valley closed upper low shearing towards the region Thu aft/eve, with a resultant weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid- Atlantic, and lee/pre-frontal surface trough developing and approaching from the west. These features should be able to provide a trigger/focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across NYC/NJ metro and N&W in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment. Severe threat should be limited in this environment, but can't rule out an isolated damaging pulse wet microburst threat, particularly if there is more in the way of sun allowing for moderate instability development. Environment is more conducive to an isolated flash flood threat with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and MBE vectors less than 5kt. Higher flash flood threat appears to be across SE PA/S NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Still an isolated flash flood risk is signaled for the NYC/NE NJ metro region in the high res- guidance, depicted thru being on the edge of HREF 10% ensemble prob for 3"/3hr, and HiRes ARW and NSSL WRF indicating max NY/NJ metro neighborhood value of 2 1/2 to 3" in 3/hr in WPC URRD. Will address in HWO, and let midnight shift evaluate any northward trends. Diminishing severe/flash flood threat in the late evening in wake of trough. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a stronger cold front approaching the region in the afternoon/evening. Trigger and focus is once again there for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri aft/eve, with an isolated severe/flash flood threat. A slightly better severe threat on Friday aft/eve with 30-35kt deep layer shear profile to complement marginal to locally moderate instability environment. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Flash flood threat looks a bit lower than Thursday with slightly lower PWATS (mid- level drying in wake of Thursday pre- frontal trough) and quicker anticipated storm movement. Flash flood threat will ultimately be contingent on moisture pooling ahead of cold front, storm coverage, and potential SW to NE training along frontal boundary based on MBE vectors. Temperatures will continue to moderate to near seasonable levels on Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s On Friday, with max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures.&& .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Offshore high pressure will continue to move away from the area through Thursday, while a weak area of low pressure and/or surface trough moves across the area Thursday afternoon/early evening. Scattered showers/thunderstorms expected Thursday with the best chance being across the NYC terminals in the afternoon. Lower confidence elsewhere with PROB30 groups or no mention. Outside of any convection Thursday afternoon/evening, expect mainly VFR conditions. Winds will generally be less than 10 kt overnight from the S/SW, increasing to 10-15kts Thursday afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Night through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected Thu and Fri with modest S/SW flow of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into Monday with high pressure building towards and then over the waters. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV AVIATION...DW MARINE...NV  909 FXUS63 KGRB 090028 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 728 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain expected this afternoon and evening, mainly between 3 and 8 PM over central and east-central Wisconsin. Damaging winds are the primary threat. - Torrential rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour within the strongest storms will create a risk for localized flash flooding, especially in urban, low-lying, and poorly drained areas. - Trends continue to be monitored for the excessive heat potential early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front stretching from west-central to north-central Wisconsin early this afternoon. Morning showers and storms have exited over northern Lake Michigan, giving way to partial clearing across central and east-central Wisconsin where temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s. Cooler temperatures in the lower to middle 70s persist across the north where cloud cover and rainfall were more widespread. Cloud cover is becoming more extensive again over southern Minnesota in association with a remnant MCV. Focus of this forecast remains on the severe weather and flash flooding potential through this evening. Severe Weather and Flood Outlook: Destabilization is actively taking place early this afternoon over central and east-central Wisconsin where mixed- layer CAPE is climbing upwards of 1000 J/kg. With further solar heating, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop in a buoyant airmass south of the front and across central Wisconsin in the 18-20Z time frame. These storms should track east through the afternoon before propagating southeast this evening as a cold pool becomes established. Deep layer shear of 25 to 35 knots is expected in the area of greatest concern across central and east- central Wisconsin. This shear profile will be supportive of a few bowing structures and perhaps an isolated supercell. Given the modest shear aloft, conditions will be most favorable for damaging wind gusts rather than severe hail. High freezing levels around 15,000 feet and poor mid-level lapse rates do not favor large hail, except within the strongest rotating updrafts. A weak, isolated tornado will also be possible, most likely focused along an outflow boundary or lake breeze where low- level vorticity is enhanced. The greatest period of concern is from 3 to 7 PM before storms shift south and east of the forecast area. Scattered shower and storm activity could persist into the overnight period, but a stabilizing atmosphere should keep intensities below severe levels. Upper-level flow will be nearly parallel to the surface front within a corridor of precipitable water values approaching 2.00 inches and high freezing levels. High rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are expected in the strongest storms, which could lead to localized flash flooding in vulnerable urban, low-lying, and poorly drained areas. Fog Potential Late Tonight: After the rain winds down late tonight into Thursday morning, there is a decent signal for fog development, particularly across central to north-central Wisconsin where clearing will occur first. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding how long showers stick around into Thursday. A moist boundary layer, weak cyclonic flow in the low levels, and weak shortwave impulses aloft could keep light showers lingering into the afternoon over central and east- central Wisconsin. Excessive Heat Outlook: An amplified upper air pattern featuring a dominant upper- level ridge is expected to build northeast into the region Friday through the weekend and persist into early next week. High pressure at the surface will slide across the area Friday through the weekend. While minor signals for spotty shower activity exist in some medium-range guidance, forcing is non- existent beneath the building ridge, and a dry forecast has been maintained. The primary story in the extended period will be potential for excessive heat. Very warm air aloft will accompany the building ridge will argue for surface high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Coupled with humidities remaining high, minor heat- related impacts appear possible at this time for those outdoors. Some relief from the heat and humidity is expected towards the middle to end of the next work week as the ridge begins to suppress southward. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 728 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Areas of showers and isolated storms will continue into tonight as a cold front sags south across the area. Main hazards will be heavy rain and lightning, with brief gusty winds in any stronger storm. Mainly MVFR/IFR conditions are expected early this evening, locally lower in the heavier shower/storm, then ceilings and visibilities will drop through the night. Some dense fog is possible, especially across northern WI, where the showers look to be less widespread overnight. The fog will lift Thursday morning, with clearing skies expected in the afternoon. Winds will remain under 10 kts. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC AVIATION.......Bersch  417 FXUS62 KFFC 090035 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 835 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Isolated to scattered storms on Thursday will become increase in coverage, becoming numerous over the weekend. - A few storms this weekend may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph and locally heavy rain. - Heat index values peak each afternoon between 95 and 105. Heat Advisory for portions of East-Central GA on Thursday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another hot and dry once again today despite the modest low level and deeper moisture in place. Similar to yesterday, sounding data showing 500 and 700 mb temps running warm and in the 90th percentile climo range. Combined with a small cap just above the freezing level and clouds will struggle to gain any vertical growth and momentum. Changes begin to happen tonight into tomorrow as the mid level ridge anchored over FL begins to break down and shift east as a ridging develops over the western US. Additional moisture and less inhibition will become more available Thursday afternoon thus pops begin to creep back up to near normal starting Thursday PM. Temps and dpts on Thu will be similar to today thus have continued the Heat Adv. for portions of middle GA on Thursday. Looking ahead, it is likely necessary again on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorm chances during the afternoon are expected to increase as we approach the weekend, especially across the northern part of the state. A slow moving front across the southern appalachians will eventually stall out over the southeast as the long term picks up bringing unsettled weather along and north of I-20 this weekend. By Monday, the front will begin to move off increasing rain chances for the entire CWA. The models indicate cooler and drier conditions are possible as we start next week, but the timing hasn't been consistent between the runs. What that looks like will ultimately come down to how quickly the weekend's stationary front leaves the area. Widespread severe weather isn't too much of a concern later this weekend. The SPC has us in a Marginal Risk on Saturday for far NE Georgia. The threat is mainly conditional to discreet afternoon convection and the primary threat will be the possibility for damaging winds. The approaching front and afternoon convection should bring us some relief from the heat though. Highs in the low to mid 90s with apparent temps in the triple digits will continue through Saturday before falling back into the 80s by the end of the weekend. The one saving grace here is that as storms become more numerous in the afternoon, radiation cooling will help prevent a number of sites across the CWA from seeing peak heat during the afternoon and temps may not rise as high as they would without them. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 734 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A VFR cu field persists across portions of the area, and is expected to dissipate by 02Z. W winds of 6-10 kts will diminish to 3-6 kts after 02Z and through the overnight hours, increasing to 6-10 kts once again by 15Z on Thursday. Another cu field between 040-050 will develop by the late morning and persist through the afternoon. Isolated to scattered TSRA is forecast from mid- afternoon through the early evening on Thursday, warranting a PROB30 for TSRA at the ATL sites and CSG from 20-00Z. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 94 74 94 / 0 20 20 30 Atlanta75 93 75 92 / 0 20 10 40 Blairsville 66 84 66 84 / 10 40 20 70 Cartersville 72 91 73 92 / 0 30 20 60 Columbus 75 94 75 93 / 0 30 20 20 Gainesville 73 92 73 92 / 0 20 20 30 Macon 75 95 75 94 / 0 20 10 20 Rome 71 90 72 91 / 10 40 30 60 Peachtree City 73 92 73 91 / 0 30 10 40 Vidalia 78 99 78 98 / 0 10 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ085-086-097- 098-106-108>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...King  416 FXUS62 KJAX 090035 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 835 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated chances of showers Thursday afternoon - Heat Advisory Thursday. Peak Heat Index 108-111 for most areas. Heat Risk remains through the rest of the week and into the weekend. - Moderate Rip Current Risk Beaches Thursday && .UPDATE... Few lingering showers over the area will begin to clear in the next couple of hours. A light southwesterly flow and warm temperatures, in the mid to upper 70s, will be in place during the overnight hours. Another Heat Advisory was issued across the area for Thursday, as Heat Index values are expected in the 108F to 111F range from late morning and through the early evening hours. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory for Thursday Afternoon and potentially Friday Afternoon - Lower convective chances Upper air ridging strengthens, limiting convection for the end of the work week. Precipitation chances Thursday remain isolated over north central Florida and the northeast FL coast south of St. Augustine in the afternoon and evening where some moisture lingers, with northeast Florida and southeast Georgia likely remaining dry on Friday. With mostly sunny skies and very limited showers and storms, dangerous heat will be the main concern both days. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast as southwesterly winds continue. Afternoon heat indices will approach 102-110 degrees both days, Heat Advisories may be necessary for portions of northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential Saturday Afternoon - Convective chances increase Sunday Onward Convection will gradually increase daily Saturday onward, with coverage Saturday mainly isolated to scattered as both sea breezes push inland. Sunday, stronger southwest flow will bring higher convective chances closer to the I-95 corridor to the coast where the Gulf sea breeze meets the pinned Atlantic sea breeze later in the afternoon. Afternoon max heat index values remain dangerously high Saturday, approaching Heat Advisory conditions. By Sunday, temperatures drop a few degrees area-wide as more storms are expected. Monday and Tuesday, precipitation chances increase to near 60-70% as a front approaches from the north. Higher cloud cover and storm chances will lower temperatures back to near normal in the lower to mid 90s to start off the new week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... The last lingering showers/storms will move offshore early this evening, with VFR conditions developing during the overnight hours with typical MVFR fog at VQQ from 07-11Z. SW flow develops again Thursday morning with SCT clouds developing between 2000-3000 ft by 14Z once again. Showers and storms look to be limited to southern locations of the area, and then towards the coast by the afternoon. Only put mention of VCSH for now for SGJ around 19Z as Atlantic seabreeze moves inland. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a southwest flow through early afternoon followed by late afternoon and evening wind surges from the south to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters each daythrough the week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents continues through the end of the week due to fairly low surf conditions from prevailing offshore flow. Some enhanced potential still looks likely for the northern beaches by late afternoon from Mayport northward due to stronger southeast wind component each day. Surf remains generally in the 1-2 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersion North Of I-10 Through The Week High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through Monday, with drier than normal conditions forecast through Saturday. This will lead to above average temperatures and dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values through Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Sunday, with patchy to areas of high afternoon dispersion north of I-10 expected each day. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above critical values. Precipitation chances increase early next week as a front approaches from the north. Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows. && .CLIMATE... Summer heat is certainly here. There is potential for some locations to get to the century mark today with probability of this occurrence at about 20-30 percent. These probabilities look a bit higher for Thursday and Friday. For the next few days, here are the record high temperatures that are within 3 degrees of the current forecast: July 8th: KJAX: 100/1879 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 100/2016 July 9th: KJAX: 101/1879 KGNV: 99/1932 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 101/2016 July 10th: KJAX: 102/1879 KGNV: 99/1914 KAMG: 99/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 July 11th: KGNV: 100/1900 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/1998 July 12th: KGNV: 99/1902 KCRG: 99/1981 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 76 97 77 97 / 0 10 0 0 SSI 78 97 80 97 / 10 10 0 10 JAX 76 98 77 99 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 77 97 78 96 / 10 10 0 10 GNV 74 97 75 97 / 10 0 0 10 OCF 74 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225- 232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533- 633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$  246 FXAK68 PAFC 090052 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 452 PM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/ Thursday - Saturday)... Model guidance continues to struggle with the evolution and track of the next shortwave moving from the Yukon across the Alaska Range into Southcentral on Thursday. While there remains some uncertainty in the exact placement of the trough confidence is increasing that showers will become more widespread across the Susitna Valley, Talkeetna Mountains and portions of the Copper River Basin, with the axis of heaviest precipitation dependent on the eventual track of the wave. As the trough exits into the Gulf Thursday night, drier air and weak ridging will begin to build into Southcentral. This will lead to decreasing shower coverage and a warming trend on Friday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper 70s for many lower elevation locations, including Homer, Seward, Valdez, Kodiak, and Cordova. Developing northerly flow aloft will also support gusty gap winds through favored terrain, while much of the region experiences warmer and drier conditions for Friday. By Saturday, we go right back to the showers pattern. The ridge shifts east as another Gulf system approaches. Rain will spread back into portions of the southern coast, including Kodiak Island and the Homer area, while scattered showers develop across inland Southcentral. Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds will increase along the Gulf Coast and adjacent marine areas as the next system moves toward the coast. LM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)... Showers have largely tapered off this afternoon across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay as the low in the southeastern Bering Sea crosses the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf near Kodiak Island. Relatively clear skies across the Southwest Interior this afternoon will be short-lived as an upper-level shortwave originating from the interior of the state drops southward across the Kuskokwim Valley. Models continue to nudge this feature farther to the west bringing light rainfall as far west as Aniak through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Through the remainder of Thursday, most rainfall from this system will fall from Sleetmute east to the Western Alaska Range. Rain tapers off Thursday night into Friday morning with some leftover showers lingering along the Western Alaska Range. Farther west, low stratus continues to blanket the Bering Sea as an upper ridge pushes east across the eastern Aleutians and eastern Bering through Thursday. A surface low quickly lifts north out of the North Pacific with its front reaching Adak and Atka by early Thursday afternoon and Nikolski, Unalaska, and the Pribilof Islands through Thursday evening. The strongest of the winds associated with this system are expected to be sustained small- craft southerly to southwesterlies and low-end gale force gusts in the Pacific marine zones south of Atka to Akutan. Light to moderate rain across the Aleutian Chain stretching north to the Pribilofs will also accompany this system as it tracks into the southern Bering through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, the surface low in the southeastern Bering continues its northeastward track inland into Bristol Bay. As precipitation begins to spread across the Southwest coast, the system gains some additional upper level support as a more robust upper-level trough with several shortwaves rounding its base digs south across the Bering. Confidence continues to increase in the likelihood of widespread light to moderate rainfall across much of the Southwest mainland for the weekend, as the patterncontinues to trend more active and wet for Southwest Alaska. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)... Starting off the long term forecast is a continuation of the active pattern in Alaska. A longwave trough with many embedded shortwaves will move over the Alaska Mainland on Sunday. This will bring widespread rainfall to much of the Southwest and Southcentral Alaska Mainlands. Wind speeds will remain relatively light overland, but will be elevated over coastlines and ocean. Meanwhile, ridging builds into the Bering, likely leading to widespread low stratus and fog that extends into the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. By Monday, some kind of a low or trough will move into the Bering. This will push the ridge eastward and will trigger more active weather into the Bering. The ridge will briefly decrease activity over the Mainland before features move in late Monday into Tuesday. There is much uncertainty with features afterwards, but it is likely that more shortwaves or lows will move into the Mainland of Alaska, bringing widespread rainfall and elevated winds. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC...Southeast winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm will continue to slowly diminish this evening, shifting to a weak southwest wind off of the Cook Inlet by early Thursday morning. A shortwave disturbance moving in from the north could bring steady rain into the terminal later on Thursday morning, though this potential is highly uncertain given poor model handing of this feature. Even if rain does make it into the terminal late tonight into Thursday morning, expect predominantly VFR conditions to persist. && $$