658 FXHW60 PHFO 090101 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 301 PM HST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trades deliver an increased coverage of showers windward and tonight through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Stagnant upper air pattern between roughly 20N and 30N persists as the islands remain under the influence of a narrow upper ridge axis flanked on either side by cutoff lows. Expectedly, governing high pressure changes very little during the forecast period leaving the islands in a rather typical breezy trade wind pattern. A transition to a wetter trade wind pattern commences tonight as visible imagery shows a band of shower-bearing cu advancing WNW toward Maui County this afternoon. This band of showers is oriented perpendicular to the island chain and as such poses the potential to bring a few inches of rain to select windward locales as training showers become established. Given observed WNW motion and latest guidance, suspect Kauai may be the most likely to experience several hours of moderate shower activity potentially lingering into Thursday. The lead edge of a tropical airmass characterized by PWATs around 1.75" is evident on visible imagery as a SW-NE oriented band of clouds centered on 20N/150W east of the Big Island. This airmass will bring dewpoints into the low 70s and maintain the ongoing period of wetter trades into the weekend. Continued breezy trades will help take the edge off of mugginess as higher humidity builds. General signal from the medium range guidance is for increased shower coverage to continue into early next week, predominantly overnight and during the early morning hours. && .AVIATION... Breezy to locally strong ENE trade winds will continue tonight through the next few days. Periodic pockets of enhanced low level moisture will boost showers mainly along windward and mountain areas with occasional leeward spillover. Showers will also be more active during the night time and early morning hours. Overall VFR conditions are expected with passing MVFR conditions in the showers. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days. AIRMET Sierra is also possible during the overnight hours for windward and mountain areas if showers increase. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure centered north of the state continues to drive fresh to strong trade winds across all coastal waters. The ASCAT from earlier today only clipped the eastern end of the state, but confirmed Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds in the Alenuihaha Channel and across waters south of the Big Island. Hi-resolution guidance keeps Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds in many of the coastal water zones though tonight, so will keep the current SCA through then. Very little change is expected to the strength of the high or the pressure gradient across the islands, so will continue to remain around the advisory threshold for most waters over the coming days. The SCA will likely be extended beyond tonight for the typical windy zones around the Big Island and Maui County at a minimum, but additional zones might need to be included. A small to moderate, medium-period south southwest (190-200 degrees) swell continues to generate moderate surf below advisory criteria along south facing shores this afternoon. This swell energy will gradually lower through the remainder of the week. Expect small surf for south facing shores leading into this weekend, with mainly background energy. A small to moderate, long-period southwest swell (220 degrees) is expected to fill in Saturday into early next week, but due to its Tasman source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell. Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. A series of small, moderate- to long-period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells are expected to arrive this weekend and linger into early next week, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. No significant swells are expected out of the north or northwest. Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the latter half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Tsamous MARINE...Farris  773 FXUS61 KLWX 090100 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 900 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Annapolis for tonight's high tide. We are continuing to monitor showers in western MD and the eastern panhandle of WV this evening with additional pop up showers possible through the night. No changes were made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Saturday. - 2) Drier conditions return early next week, along with a slight uptick in temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday. A frontal zone has stalled out across North Carolina, arcing northward along the Appalachian Mountains. Weak high pressure is positioned to the north, with onshore flow responsible for the abundance of low clouds and cooler temperatures. Most showers and thunderstorms are developing along the southern and western periphery of the forecast area this afternoon, closer to the frontal zone. The severe weather threat is low. However, precipitable water values remain high in this zone, and slow storm motions could result in heavy rainfall totals. This could result in an isolated instance of flooding, especially if it falls in an area which has recently seen heavy rain. Low clouds will likely fill back in tonight, with some fog or mist possible in some locations. There will also be an opportunity for some showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms during the second half of the night through mid Thursday morning due to warm advection and PVA across the stalled frontal zone. This activity shouldn't be hazardous, but there may be some briefly heavy rain. An upper level low over the Tennessee Valley today will open and eject eastward on Friday. The frontal zone will likely lift northward, allowing deeper moisture to advect over the region along with slightly higher temperatures. A wave of low pressure may also develop along the boundary. All combined, convection will likely initiate over the terrain and within a pressure trough during the midday hours, spreading eastward through the afternoon. Coverage will likely be high enough, combined with shear up to 30 kt, that activity could congeal into clusters east of the Blue Ridge. This could result in strong to damaging wind gusts. Given the moist profiles and weak low level winds, higher end wind damage is less likely compared to some recent events. Confidence is increasing in the overall severe weather potential, with SPC indicating a Slight Risk now along the I-95 corridor. Even though storms will have some forward motion, precipitable water values over 2 inches will lead to very heavy rain rates. Thus any repetitive or conglomerating storms could result in flash flooding, especially if the rain were to fall in more sensitive areas. WPC has increased the excessive rainfall outlook to Slight for a large part of the area. Storms will likely quickly exit during the evening hours. Temperatures will likely tick up a bit more on Friday, with some areas crossing into the 90s. A more pronounced shortwave trough will approach, helping push a cold front southward toward the area. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop again in the warm and humid air mass, although there is some question in coverage and strength given unidirectional westerly flow along with lower instability compared to Thursday. With that said, there will be some mentionable shear with the trough, and storms will be capable of producing heavy rain rates. Thus there could be an attendant risk for damaging winds and flooding depending on how the details unfold. The front will remain nearby on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will linger, although the exact details become more uncertain by this point. Temperatures are also likely lower with the front overhead. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions return early next week, along with a slight uptick in temperatures. High pressure moves overhead on Sunday, along with a broad upper- level ridge forming over the northern Plains. Heights begin to build toward the middle of next week as the upstream ridge attempts to expand eastward. This will lead to a gradual decrease in rain & thunderstorm chances early next week, as well as a gradual uptick in temperature forecasts. After falling to the low 80s on Sunday in the wake of Saturday's cold front, highs could reach the low-to-mid 90s by midweek, which will overall be a return to near-normal temperatures for this period of the summer. Cloud cover could still be slow to clear on Sunday, but should gradually become sunnier by Monday and Tuesday. Looking ahead, a deep upper-level trough begins to form over the Northeast by midweek, which could introduce additional rain chances as it passes through by late next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds are slowly lifting and scattering out this afternoon, although it may take a couple more hours for all locations to return to VFR. The greatest chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening will be at CHO. While confidence has increased enough for a TAF mention, it is uncertain how well thunderstorms hold together crossing the Blue Ridge into a slightly more stable airmass. Winds gradually shift to south to southeasterly by this evening. Another round of low clouds are looking likely tonight, and some patchy fog/mist is also possible toward dawn. There is also an increasing chance of showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms crossing the area in advance of a warm front late tonight through mid morning Thursday. Given model disagreement in timing and coverage, only included a PROB30 for now. Expect a return to VFR conditions by mid morning Thursday. Confidence is increasing in thunderstorms developing near MRB early Thursday afternoon before progressing east across the area during the afternoon to early evening. Strong wind gusts and very heavy rain will be possible. Fog may form in the wake of the storms Thursday night. There will be a threat of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday as a cold front slowly settles across the area. After the front passes to the south early Sunday, predominantly VFR conditions are expected through Monday. Northerly winds shift easterly by Sunday evening. && .MARINE... A wavering front and weak pressure gradients will result in sub-advisory winds through Friday. Southerly winds tonight and Thursday will shift westerly Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible both Thursday and Friday, with the greatest chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and early evening. A cold front tracks through on Saturday, potentially causing a few showers over the waters and thunderstorm-associated gusts. Outside of thunderstorms, winds stay below SCA thresholds through the weekend and into early next week. Winds flow northwesterly Saturday before shifting easterly by Sunday evening. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Anomalies are around 1-1.5 feet this afternoon. Winds will turn more southerly tonight, leading to a further uptick in water levels. This will likely result in near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline through the end of the week. Annapolis is most likely to reach the minor flood threshold, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for tonight's high tide. Havre de Grace will also be close. A gradual decline in water levels is expected this weekend. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/SRT AVIATION...ADS/SRT MARINE...ADS/SRT  722 FXUS63 KJKL 090118 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 918 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will persist through the week. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch has been issued for increased flash flood potential across the area from Thursday afternoon through early Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 703 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Have incorporated latest radar and mesoscale model trends into the forecast, giving a more notable drop off in convection midway through the night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 241 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A mid-level closed low over the Lower OH/TN Valley will slowly fill and become an open wave this evening into the overnight as it moves up the Ohio River Valley. Westerly flow then builds in its wake Thursday into Thursday night, with another wave and associated convection approaching from the west and west-northwest Thursday night into Friday morning. Numerous convective showers and storms have already developed across the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon. An overall increasing trend in convective activity is likely as the afternoon progresses in a moderately unstable environment with high PWs and lower to mid 70s dewpoints. A bit stronger mid-level flow than yesterday means storm motions are a bit more progressive than yesterday, but the potential for training of heavy rain still exists, particularly in areas where soils are already saturated from recent previous heavy rainfall. Thus, an isolated flash flood potential remains through Thursday morning. Flash flood potential increases Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, as another round of afternoon and evening convection is expected on top of increasingly wet soils. Attention then turns to a potentially significant round of heavy rain at the very end of the period towards dawn Friday with the arrival of one or more mesoscale convective systems. Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued starting at 18z Thursday afternoon, continuing into the first half of the weekend. With an active weather pattern and high humidity through the period, expect continued mild/warm overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s, with little if any ridge-valley temperature splits. Highs Thursday will be tempered somewhat by cloud cover and redeveloping shower and thunderstorm activity, with lower to mid 80s expected. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains. For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday withPWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday. By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed. Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 918 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Scattered showers/thunderstorms were ongoing at the start of the period, giving localized IFR or worse conditions. Areas not recently affected by the precip were mainly VFR. An overall decrease in precip is forecast as we move into the night, with largely VFR conditions returning. The extent of lingering cloud cover is a bit uncertain. Currently, generalized mid-upper level ceilings are forecast during the night, which would limit fog development compared to last night. However, with enough of a lasting decrease in clouds, fog could become a concern and bring deteriorating conditions. Some additional showers/thunderstorms could also develop overnight and bring reductions in ceilings and visibility. This is being handled by a PROB30 group, which is also covering as a bit of a safeguard for conditions should fog develop. Uncertainty also abounds during the day on Thursday concerning timing of showers/thunderstorms. It's likely that most places will be affected at some time. However, there is so much uncertainty regarding exact timing that it has been handled with another PROB30 group in the afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL