587 FXPQ50 PGUM 090203 CCA AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU Issued by National Weather Service Honolulu HI 643 AM ChST Thu Jul 9 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Infrared satellite imagery reveals mostly cloudy skies over the Marianas. Tanapag buoy shows combined seas around 10 ft. && .Discussion... Upper ridging in the wake of STY Bavi is supporting subtle pressure rises over the Marianas. Attendant surface ridging will support light to variable winds and inhibit deep convection through Saturday. Guidance remains in strong agreement that a tropical disturbance will over or immediately south of the Marianas during the latter half of the weekend. Some development of this feature is possible but remains uncertain at this time. In any case, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be prevalent through the middle of next week. && .Marine... STY Bavi and its associated monsoon trough maintain an elevated west swell and a secondary southwest swell resulting in seas hazardous to small craft. Hazardous surf also continues along west and south facing reefs. As the system moves away, swells and surf will gradually diminish. A high risk of rip currents exists along north, south, and west facing reefs at least through Friday afternoon. && .Tropical Systems... Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) is located over the Philippine Sea near 18N131E, or roughly 750 miles northwest of Yap, and 750 miles north of Palau. Bavi continues to move west-northwest at around 12 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 145 mph. Bavi is expected to make a turn toward the northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed through today, potentially exiting the region west of 130E by this afternoon. In the meantime, the broad, surging monsoon pattern feeding into Bavi will continue to produce hazardous seas and surf across far Western Micronesia. A weak, disorganized tropical disturbance is located near Kosrae at roughly 4N160E, Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Invest 97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across the area with little organization. Generally more showers are located within the convergent northeast flank, across the western Marshall Islands, and Pohnpei and Kosrae States. 97W is still rated "sub-low" by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, meaning it is not expected to develop over the next several days, but will continue to be monitored for potential development. Pulses of shower and isolated thunderstorm development are expected to continue as it drifts westward over the next day or so. For more information on Super Typhoon Bavi, please refer to the Public Advisory issued by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW. && .Eastern Micronesia... Wet and unsettled weather will continue at Pohnpei through today with high-end scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms persisting. A weak circulation, Invest 97W, located south of Kosrae is supporting isolated to scattered showers in the Kosrae to Pohnpei corridor. Ensemble guidance suggests that Invest 97W will lift slowly west-northwest over the coming days with little to no development expected. Shower chances will top out around low- end scattered at Majuro into Friday with shower coverage then expected to increase throughout Friday and into the weekend. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will continue through the rest of week. Seas consist of a west-northwest swell and a small, southeast swell at Pohnpei and Kosrae and an east swell, a small, south swell, and a small, west swell at Majuro. Gentle to moderate winds are expected through the rest of the week at Kosrae and Pohnpei with light to gentle winds expected at Majuro. Windsare currently transitioning to southerly over Kosrae today and will reach Pohnpei by Friday morning as Invest 97W lifts to the west-northwest. Periods of fresh south winds will be possible for both islands and their nearshore waters. && .Western Micronesia... Latest satellite imagery indicates organized convection gradually transitioning west of the forecast area as weak surface ridging builds southward over the area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms prevail within the rain bands to the north and northwest of Yap, and to the northwest of Palau. Limited shower activity in the vicinity of Chuuk where aforementioned surface ridging has already arrived. Scattered showers will continue for Yap and Palau through at least Friday as the unsettled monsoon pattern overhead gradually moves away. Late this weekend into early next week, models highlight an unsettled pattern developing across much of the region that is in part associated with a developing tropical disturbance over eastern Micronesia, Invest 97W. Periods of numerous locally heavy showers will be possible for Yap, Palau, and Chuuk starting around Sunday night. Palau and Yap remain within the surging monsoon flow to the south of Super Typhoon Bavi (09W). The elevated swells are also generating hazardous seas to the Small Craft Advisory threshold and advisory level surf along north and west facing reefs && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas: JVC Tropical Systems: JVC Eastern Micronesia: JVC Western Micronesia: JVC  567 FXUS66 KLOX 090202 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 702 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...08/143 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge over the region. Temperatures will decrease slightly over the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Monsoonal showers or thunderstorms will be possible starting Saturday. Temperatures will begin to build once again on Tuesday, potentially reaching Major HeatRisk levels, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...08/131 PM. An upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region through Friday, before starting to move NE on Saturday. 500 mb heights will range from 594 to 596 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal for this time of year. There will be onshore flow to the east strongest in the afternoon, but a few mb weaker than it was earlier this week. There will be a mb or two of offshore flow from the north in the mornings turning weakly onshore to the north in the afternoons. High temperatures continue to be the main concern through the forecast period. With rising 500mb heights through Thursday, lack of a solid marine layer, and only weak to moderate onshore flow in the afternoon, conditions will be warmer than normal for this time of year. High temperatures through Thursday will range 92-103 across the valleys and 75-92 across the coasts/inland coasts. These temperatures are 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. On Friday and over the weekend, 500 mb heights will decrease with a slight increase in onshore flow, leading to a few degrees of cooling. However, temperatures will remain above normal for the time of year. However, temperatures will start to increase again next week, even warmer than this week. Thus, The Heat Advisory for all the valleys, mountains, and Los Angeles Inland Coast has been extended through Tuesday morning (please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all details). Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening and Thursday evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County, and a Wind Advisory is in effect late this afternoon into early Thursday morning. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...08/139 PM. As previously mentioned, the upper level high pressure will shift NE late Friday through Sunday, and eventually reach the Dakotas. This northeastward shift will open the door for SE flow into Southern California. Meanwhile, at the surface, moderate to strong onshore flow will continue both to the north and east. With the SE flow, monsoonal moisture will move into the region Sunday night, lasting through basically all of the next week. While the moisture won't reach the region until Sunday night, there is still instability that will bring a 10-20% chance of dry thunderstorms on Sunday. However, once the moisture moves in Sunday night, PWATs will raise to 1-1.5 inches across most of the region (even up to Paso Robles) through at least Tuesday, bringing a 10-20% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to Southern California. As for the heat, another warming trend will start up Tuesday through Thursday, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk, and a 30% chance of Major HeatRisk to most of the region during those days. Thus, an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for the majority of the region, with temperatures of 90-112 degrees possible away from the coast. Additionally, the monsoonal moisture will add to the discomfort of the heat. && .AVIATION...09/0201Z. At 00z at KLAX, there was a surface based inversion. The top of the inversion was at 2900 ft deep with a temperature of 26 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 30 percent chc of IFR conds redeveloping this evening around 5-7z and lasting through 16Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z. Low confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLAX, KPRB (40 percent chc of IFR cigs 10Z-17Z) and KLGB (40 percent chc of no cigs) KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of OVC008 conds 12Z-17Z). Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...08/104 PM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Friday morning across the Outer Waters. There is a 50-70% chance of Gale Force winds this afternoon and evening into Friday morning. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid- week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend. SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel greatest during the afternoon and evening hours through at least Thursday. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoons/evenings through Thursday morning. For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through tonight. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...08/104 PM. A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through next week. With the swell, the potential for larger surf and greater risk for rip currents will continue. High tides are expected to increase this weekend going into next week with Monday expected to be the highest tide of 7.0 to 7.6 ft above MLLW. There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding next week with the high tides and south swell. One thing that will need to be watched into next week will be the potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential tropical development. Thunderstorms are also possible starting Sunday and going through next week with a 10-20% chance. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory now in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/KL AVIATION...Phillips/SF MARINE...RM/Lund/CC/SF BEACHES...SF SYNOPSIS...RM/KL weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  202 FXUS63 KFSD 090212 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 912 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures remain on track to rise to the 90s to 100 degree mark towards this weekend and into early next week. - This weekend and most of next week are expected to be mainly dry. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The slow moving quasi-stationary front from the past couple of days has pushed off to the southeast, taking our severe weather chances with it. Light northerly surface winds behind the front have begun to cool the boundary layer. As cooling continues an inversion will quickly set in over much of the region. This will work to trap the moisture from recent rain near the surface. As we enter the early hours of Thursday morning surface temperatures are expected to fall to, or very near to, the dew point temperatures. Patchy, dense fog is likely to develop in response, especially along and east of the James River Valley. Ensemble probabilities of visibility decreasing below 5 miles is low at around 30%. However, please ensure you are prepared for rapidly changing conditions. After sunrise winds will become northeast to east but will remain light. With little mixing occurring as a result, fog may hang on until the middle of the morning. Thursday will be dry with highs climbing to around average for this time of year, in the low to mid 80s. Thursday evening a fast moving short wave could bring rain chances to the region. Uncertainty remains high as most guidance has the storms either splitting and going around our CWA, or dissipating rapidly as they move east from central South Dakota. Overall dynamics are weak, and so if storms do form the risk for severe weather is low. Friday during the day looks to be dry and mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s west of the James River Valley. This weekend a strong, high amplitude high pressure ridge will build over the central United States. This ridge will persist for much of the following week. Highs during this time will be seasonably warm for July, in the 90s with a few 100s sprinkled in. Dew points will be in the 60s with low 70s possible over northwest Iowa. As we have entered peak growing season, dew points may be influenced by evapotranspiration (aka Corn Sweat), resulting in localized higher humidity. Potentially dangerous heat index values may be possible at times. Please ensure you are properly hydrated and take breaks out of the heat. The forecast for this time is expected to remain mostly dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few light rain showers persist across mainly northwest Iowa this afternoon. A surface trough and associated cold front continue to track through the forecast area early this afternoon. The mid level clouds associated with these light rain showers continue to sit over mainly northwest Iowa and surrounding locations. This has prevented locations in this area from heating out. The cooler temperatures look to also delay new convective development as the cold front pushes into this area. Still, these clouds look to clear/break up enough to allow adequate instability to develop with a magnitude up to about 2,000 J/kg over the course of the afternoon timeframe. Vertical shear values will be on the weaker side of things with a magnitude of roughly 20-30 knots. Latest hi-res guidance shows that a small, bi-modal severe weather event is on the table for this afternoon and evening. Storms look to develop on both the pre- frontal trough and trailing cold front. Storm development looks to take place across mainly northwest Iowa and adjacent areas this afternoon with a timeframe from from about 4 pm to 10 pm. With the cold frontal forcing, storms look to grow into a line as they push out of the area this evening. While vertical shear magnitudes will be on the lower side, hodographs show a weak but classic veer-back profile. With weak cold advection aloft, lapse rates will steepen just a bit more and allow for a large hail threat. Soundings do show slightly more saturated profiles in the hail growth zone (HGZ) which will tone down the hail threat a bit, with some of the largest stones growing up to half dollar size. DCAPE values will be sufficient with values up to 800 to 1,000 J/kg, keeping a damaging wind threat in place with the strongest gusts up to 65 mph. The large hail threat will come with the initial storm development before transitioning to a damaging wind threat as storms grow upscale. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall could result in localized ponding in low lying/urban areas as storms roll through. The storm threat will end this evening, leaving mostly quiet conditions for the overnight hours. Low temperatures will fall to the 60s. Seasonable and mostly dry conditions will return for the end of the week with high temperatures remaining in the 80s to just touching 90F. Winds will be light, making for a pleasant Thursday and Friday. Heights begin to rise aloft on Saturday, beginning to warm temperatures with highs rising to the 80s and 90s. Sunday will kick off the first day of near to above normal temperatures as medium range and ensemble guidance show a 600 dam ridge building into the Northern Plains. This ridge looks to persist through the first half of next week, brining hot and humid conditions with it. The ensembles show a 60-100% chance for highs to exceed 90F Sunday through Tuesday near and west of I-29. Chances for exceeding 100F drop to 40-70% for the same period of time with Tuesday having the highest probabilities. The ensembles also show a broad 40-100% chance for dew points to exceed 60F as well. All these probabilities to say that hot and humid conditions are expected late this weekend and into early next week. A few ensemble members show the ridge beginning to flatten next Wednesday which could begin to trend temperatures down. There remains uncertainty regarding how long the ridge remains strong so something to keep an eye on heading forward. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Strong thunderstorms have exited to the southeast of our region. A few isolated light showers will remain possible through early this evening for areas of northwest Iowa. A mix of VFR and MVFR is expected to prevail for the majority of the period. A shallow inversion has begun to form trapping moisture just above the surface. Winds decrease to light and variable after sunset and as the surface continues to cool areas of patchy dense fog are expected to form. Ceilings and visibility may drop to IFR at times in the early morning hours of Thursday. Areas along and east of I-29 are the most likely to see dense fog. Ceilings and visibility improve by mid-morning and the rest of the day will be mostly sunny with light northeast winds. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AJP DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...AJP  535 FXUS63 KIND 090220 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1020 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers or a stray thunderstorm possible across far south- central Indiana through this afternoon - Strong to severe storms and flash flooding possible late Thursday into Thursday night - Additional rain Friday through the weekend with localized flooding possible && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1019 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments made to sky cover overnight. Showers in our south ended earlier this evening, which has left temperatures lower in the SW than the rest of the forecast area. Clouds are starting to thin out and push eastward. This, plus light and sometimes calm winds overnight, could again lead to patchy low lying fog prior to daybreak. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This afternoon through tonight... Weak surface high pressure is providing mostly quiet weather across central Indiana this afternoon. Current KIND radar imagery does depict isolated to scattered convection just south of the forecast area. This convection is associated with a weak mid-upper level low and a deeper plume of moisture which has slowly lifted north. The disturbance may promote isolated showers or a stray storm across far south-central Indiana through the afternoon. Otherwise, look for tranquil weather to continue through the overnight. Brief patchy fog cannot be ruled out towards daybreak Thursday due to very light winds and low-level moisture still in place. Thursday Through Saturday Night... Guidance continues to depict an active pattern developing with multiple disturbances tracking through the region. The first wave moving in late Thursday will push a cold front into central Indiana. The boundary is then expected to stall with additional shortwaves traversing the Ohio Valley. Deep moisture remaining in place and sufficient forcing from the multiple waves will keep rain chances elevated. Daytime heating atop the anomalously moist environment should promote moderate to strong instability Thursday. Meanwhile, slight enhancement of mid-upper level flow from the passing shortwave will promote up to 30 kt of effective shear supporting the potential for loosely organized convection. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the ample instability and sufficient deep layer shear. Forecast soundings depict steep lapse rates, moderate-strong instability, and DCAPE values approaching 1000-1200 J/KG which suggest storms are capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. The greater concern late this week will be the potential for heavy rainfall. Highly efficient warm rain processes in addition to the expected multiple rounds of convection could lead to localized flash flooding. Precipitable water values over 2.0 inches are expected which exceeds the 90th percentile for climatology this time of year. Efficient rainfall rates combined with repeated storms will be the main threat to monitor for flooding, especially if training occurs. Models have continue to gradually shift southward with the primary treat for heavy rainfall now across far south-central Indiana or locations further south. Sunday Onward Model guidance generally depicts a low pressure system departing early Sunday morning. Broad cyclonic flow across the region and lingering low-level moisture will support low chances for showers and storms. Upper ridging should then build in aloft late Sunday into early next week providing more tranquil weather. Guidance suggest the ridge begins to retrograde towards the middle of next resulting in northwest flow aloft. This would allowfor shortwaves to track towards the region mid-late week returning precipitation chances to the forecast. Exact details remain uncertain at this time due to diverging model solutions. Increasing heights aloft and warmer 850mb temperatures advecting towards the region will lead to warming temperatures. Look for highs to reach the upper 80s to possibly near 90F early next week. Humid conditions combined with the heat may result in heat indices approaching the mid 90s. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 747 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impacts: - Showers and Storms to enter central Indiana from the NW towards the end or shortly after the TAF period Discussion: VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally be light through much of the period and could pick up above 7 kts for tomorrow afternoon. Brief patchy fog cannot be ruled out towards daybreak Thursday near the outlying TAF sites, but confidence is low. An approaching system will bring a greater chance for convection at the very end of the TAF period towards Thursday evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...KF AVIATION...KF DISCUSSION...Melo  724 FXUS61 KOKX 090226 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1026 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and localized flash flood threat on Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. Increasingly warm and muggy on Thu and Fri, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s for one day on Friday. 3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Good agreement on Mid-Mississippi River valley closed upper low shearing towards the region Thu aft/eve, with a resultant weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid- Atlantic, and lee/pre-frontal surface trough developing and approaching from the west. These features should be able to provide a trigger/focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across NYC/NJ metro and N&W in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment. Severe threat should be limited in this environment, but can't rule out an isolated damaging pulse wet microburst threat, particularly if there is more in the way of sun allowing for moderate instability development. Environment is more conducive to an isolated flash flood threat with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and MBE vectors less than 5kt. Higher flash flood threat appears to be across SE PA/S NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Still an isolated flash flood risk is signaled for the NYC/NE NJ metro region in the high res- guidance, depicted thru being on the edge of HREF 10% ensemble prob for 3"/3hr, and HiRes ARW and NSSL WRF indicating max NY/NJ metro neighborhood value of 2 1/2 to 3" in 3/hr in WPC URRD. Will address in HWO, and let midnight shift evaluate any northward trends. Diminishing severe/flash flood threat in the late evening in wake of trough. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a stronger cold front approaching the region in the afternoon/evening. Trigger and focus is once again there for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri aft/eve, with an isolated severe/flash flood threat. A slightly better severe threat on Friday aft/eve with 30-35kt deep layer shear profile to complement marginal to locally moderate instability environment. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Flash flood threat looks a bit lower than Thursday with slightly lower PWATS (mid- level drying in wake of Thursday pre- frontal trough) and quicker anticipated storm movement. Flash flood threat will ultimately be contingent on moisture pooling ahead of cold front, storm coverage, and potential SW to NE training along frontal boundary based on MBE vectors. Temperatures will continue to moderate to near seasonable levels on Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s On Friday, with max heat indices should reach the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures.&& .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Offshore high pressure will continue to move away from the area through Thursday, while a weak area of low pressure and/or surface trough moves across the area Thursday afternoon/early evening. Scattered showers/thunderstorms expected Thursday with the best chance being across the NYC terminals in the afternoon/evening. Lower confidence elsewhere with PROB30 groups or no mention at all. Outside of any convection Thursday afternoon/evening, expect mainly VFR conditions. Winds will generally be less than 10 kt overnight from the S/SW, increasing to 10-15kts Thursday afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of convection on Thursday. A few gusts 15-20kt possible Thursday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Night through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. There is also a low chance for MVFR/IFR across the eastern terminals Thursday night. Saturday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected Thu and Fri with modest S/SW flow of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into Monday with high pressure building towards and then over the waters. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV AVIATION...DW MARINE...NV  834 FXUS63 KBIS 090230 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 930 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. - A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the week, with very hot daily high temperatures around 95 to 105 forecast this weekend through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No major adjustments to the forecast were necessary at the time of this mid evening update. Calm and dry weather persists across western and central North Dakota. Upstream of the forecast area, thunderstorms continue to develop along a pseudostationary cold front over southeastern Montana. CAMs continue to advertise these storms remaining out of our area until late tonight, when the front is expected picked up and pushed west by a surface low dropping out of southern Minnesota. By this time, they can be expected to be mainly be showers with some more isolated rumbles of thunder. UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update. Earlier showers across portions of the northwest and north central have dissipated. Have tweaked sky grids this evening, but otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently quasi-zonal flow is over the Northern Plains and northern Rockies. At the surface, a high pressure is in far southern Canada, influencing the Dakotas and eastern Montana. Around the high is a stationary front from central Montana to Nebraska, and back up to Minnesota. A very slight wave in the zonal flow has created light rain showers in northern North Dakota today. Thursday another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the evening. All of western and central North Dakota is in a level 1 risk, with a smaller area through the middle part of the state of a level 2 risk. A weak surface low pressure will move east across the International Border in the western half of the state. With at least 35 knots of shear, and the shear vector perpendicular to that stationary front, isolated super cells are possible in western and central North Dakota. With ample surface heating and moisture advecting into the state, the middle third of the state was upgraded to a level 2 risk. This moisture advection will create pockets of 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The current forecast for hazards are hail size is up to 2 inches and 60mph wind gusts. Convection will likely start discrete before becoming clusters as outflow boundaries collide through the event. Timing and location are unfortunately low confidence as the various CAMs have differences. The general consensus for a start time is in between 21 and 00z in western ND, and moving southeast, exiting our area by 10z. Looking ahead to this very hot weekend, a large upper level high will strengthen over the Desert Southwest. This will create a ridge over the Northern Plains, allowing that clockwise moving high to push the hot air northward at the 850mb level. The current deterministic NBM temperature forecast continue to show lower triple digits for western and parts of central ND Sunday and Monday, but overall the extreme heat will last from Friday through at least Tuesday. One thing to note for Sunday and Monday, is that the deterministic temperatures have been the 75th percentile of the NBM, meaning there is likely a warm bias occurring and actual temperatures won't be as high. This morning's run, already has come down closer to the 50th percentile, although that is still in the triple digits. Like every very warm day in the state, there willbe a strong south wind, with gust up to 30mph through the weekend. The large upper high will slowly roll to the northeast and end up centered on the Central Plains by Monday. An Alberta Clipper moving through Minnesota will then squish the high back to the west. This will squeeze the very warm temperatures down to the South Dakota border, while the rest of the state drops to the 80s or low 90s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 930 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility is generally expected at all terminals throughout the 00Z TAF period. Late tonight into Thursday morning, there will be some chances for scattered showers west of Highway 83 (which runs between Bismarck and Minot). Where these showers do develop, periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible. Confidence in when and where these showers are too low to include mentions at any given TAF site at this time. Higher chances for showers and some thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially across the north. Winds are generally expected to remain light to very light this evening through Wednesday afternoon, gradually turning out of a generally easterly direction at the start of the TAF period to a more south southwesterly direction by the end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Adam  111 FXUS65 KTFX 090236 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 836 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening capable of producing strong wind gusts and large hail. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms across Southwest and Central Montana Thursday and Friday afternoon. - Trending hotter toward the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday looking hottest. && .UPDATE... Made small adjustments to PoPs for this evening to represent current trends. Severe thunderstorm threat is diminishing with all showers and thunderstorms gradually ending after midnight. Slight adjustments to minimum temperatures and dewpoints for tonight. Keeping fog out of forecast presently however patchy mist or low clouds are still possible in North Central MT near dawn. Otherwise remainder of forecast is on track. - Akins && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 557 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Upper level troughing well off to the northwest over northern BC will progress eastward through the day today, eventually emerging into northwestern AB by the evening. Flow aloft across the region will largely be zonal, but be ever so slightly cyclonic in nature given the disturbance off to the northwest. This weakly cyclonic nature of the flow will combine with sufficient daytime heating to result in at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region by mid-afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings suggest wind will be the primary concern with the strongest thunderstorms, but increasing shear through the afternoon combine with respectable instability will yield a large hail threat as well. This activity exits eastward late evening or early overnight. The main upper level disturbance passes eastward into Thursday, though some lingering instability across SW MT will yield a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon. Thereafter an upper level ridge begins to build in across the Central CONUS and interior west, which will allow for temperatures to climb heading into the weekend. While the hottest conditions look to remain off to the east and southeast, afternoon temperatures rising well into the 90s in many areas this weekend will pose impacts to those with outdoor plans. Plan for plenty of hydration and rest breaks if planning to be outside this weekend. Heading into next week the ridge looks to slide eastward ever so slightly, which looks to open the door for some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall through this Evening... Confidence has increased through the morning that an isolated severe thunderstorm or two will occur through the timeframe that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of Southwest through North Central Montana, generally along and east of a Havre, to Great Falls, to Helena, to Butte, to Big Hole Pass line. BUFKIT soundings across these areas show deep inverted-V's with CIGS of 9-12kft, which would suggest that damaging winds would be the primary hazard for these areas. With that being said BUFKIT soundings over the plains of Central and North Central Montana, especially across Fergus and Blaine Counties, do support sufficient instability within the hail growth zone for the potential of hailstones to approach 1" but less than ideal shear will likely be the limiting factor for hail to exceed severe criteria. Hot Temperatures this Weekend... Climate anomaly indicators continue to support the potential for an unusual to very unusual period of hot temperatures, with respect to early to mid-July climatology, across the Northern Rockies;especially along and east of a Lewistown, to Helena, to Chief Joseph Pass line where EFIs are in excess of 0.6. This is not to say that areas north and west of this line will not also see hot temperatures, but with respect to July climatology readings will not be as anomalous. The tables below depict Low End (NBM5.0 10th Percentiles), Most Likely (50th Percentiles), and High End (NBM5.0 90th Percentiles) scenarios with respect to high and low temperatures over the weekend; with larger spreads between the three scenarios suggesting greater uncertainty due to a combination of cloud cover/wind speeds and directions/latent heat release while smaller spreads suggest greater certainty. Saturday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 83 | 87 | 91 Cut Bank 89 | 93 | 97 Havre 93 | 100 | 104 Great Falls 94 | 99 | 103 Lewistown 91 | 96 | 100 Helena 93 | 98 | 101 White Sulphur Springs 91 | 95 | 97 Bozeman 95 | 98 | 100 Dillon 91 | 96 | 99 Ennis 92 | 96 | 98 West Yellowstone 86 | 90 | 91 Sunday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 78 | 87 | 94 Cut Bank 84 | 93 | 99 Havre 92 | 101 | 107 Great Falls 93 | 100 | 106 Lewistown 92 | 99 | 106 Helena 92 | 99 | 106 White Sulphur Springs 92 | 99 | 103 Bozeman 97 | 101 | 105 Dillon 92 | 98 | 103 Ennis 96 | 100 | 103 West Yellowstone 90 | 94 | 96 Sat. Night's Low Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 55 | 58 | 63 Cut Bank 54 | 59 | 66 Havre 59 | 62 | 68 Great Falls 57 | 62 | 67 Lewistown 55 | 59 | 64 Helena 61 | 64 | 68 White Sulphur Springs 53 | 57 | 60 Bozeman 57 | 61 | 65 Dillon 55 | 58 | 62 Ennis 57 | 60 | 63 West Yellowstone 47 | 52 | 57 Sun. Night's Low Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 49 | 58 | 65 Cut Bank 50 | 60 | 68 Havre 56 | 63 | 71 Great Falls 57 | 63 | 70 Lewistown 54 | 59 | 66 Helena 61 | 67 | 71 White Sulphur Springs 54 | 58 | 63 Bozeman 57 | 62 | 66 Dillon 56 | 61 | 65 Ennis 57 | 60 | 65 West Yellowstone 49 | 54 | 59 At this time these scenarios would tend to suggest that while daytime temperatures will be hot across most areas, especially on Sunday, temperatures will cool sufficiently enough during the overnight hours to provide some relief from the heat. This relief offsets the need for Extreme Heat highlights at this time, but at the event draws closer Heat Advisories may be need for some && .AVIATION... 09/00Z TAF Period Scattered thunderstorms will continue moving east across Southwest to Central Montana until 03Z this evening with some storms capable of producing severe gusts over 55 kts and hail up to 1". MVFR conditions can occur within precipitation otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the evening. A chance for MVFR/IFR conditions is still possible over North Central MT and KHVR due to mist/low stratus between 10-16Z Thursday morning but should not be as widespread as Wednesday morning as most low level moisture has eroded. - Akins && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 56 88 55 93 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 54 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 57 88 56 91 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 53 88 54 90 / 20 10 10 0 WYS 46 83 45 84 / 20 20 30 0 DLN 51 86 52 89 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 57 88 56 92 / 60 0 0 0 LWT 54 83 53 89 / 40 10 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  733 FXUS62 KKEY 090254 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1054 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Saharan Air Layer is moving across the Florida Keys. The SAL is on track to lift out of the Keys by the weekend. - Heat will be the primary weather concern this week. Heat indices may creep towards 110 before the weekend. - Shower coverage is expected to increase at the end of the week while a low in the upper atmosphere tracks westward across the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Generally unremarkable weather has continued across the Florida Keys this evening courtesy of ridging draped over the region. Current observations along the island chain show temperatures still in the mid 80s with head indices anywhere from the mid 90s to near 100F. The silver lining, for what it's worth, is that the breeze outside is keeping things from feeling too stuffy. The ASOS at Key West International Airport has reported sustained winds near 15 mph with frequent gusts near 20 mph. Farther up the island chain, Marathon is also showing sustained winds near 15 mph, but gusts have been less frequent. Overall, a little warm, but this would feel a lot worse if the air wasn't moving like this. GOES-19 Dust indicates there is some Saharan Air Layer (SAL) across the area, and this explains the lack of shower activity on our KBYX radar. Typically, the upper air sounding would also show SAL in the area with a layer of dry air in the mid layers, but our 00Z KKEY sounding from this evening sampled notable dry air from around 900mb up to 600mb. The SAL is in there somewhere, but there is also some regular dry air too. All of this is to say the inherited nonexistent pops seem appropriate for the short term forecast. Radiational cooling is unlikely due to the elevated winds, and the field of fair weather cloud cover noted on GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics should remain through the overnight hours. Therefore, the advertised overnight lows in the mid 80s are on track to verify. No changes are proposed to the current forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across all Florida Keys local waters, excluding Florida Bay, due to fresh east to southeast breezes. Moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes will hold steady over the next few days as an Atlantic ridge draped across Central Florida strengthens. Winds will tend to peak in the evenings and lull slightly during the day. Breezes are expected to ease back gradually through the weekend. Shower and thunder chances will be slight or less over the next few days, but trend sharply upwards late in the week as a weak low level trough pushes westward across our area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Clouds based between FL025 and 035 will lead to occasional MVFR CIGs at both terminals, especially EYW, throughout the first half of the TAF period. However, the fair weather cloud field responsible for this is moving swiftly, and any MVFR observations should be short lived, minimizing any impacts. Sustained surface winds of near 15 knots will prevail out of the east to southeast, so crosswind concerns are virtually nonexistent. Weather will remain dry onsite. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 91 83 91 / 10 0 20 30 Marathon 84 90 83 90 / 0 0 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest