319 FXUS63 KFGF 090306 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1006 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 2 out of 5 risk Thursday overnight for the Devils Lake basin. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms. - Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Surface high pressure centered in southern MB will extend its influence into our area, calming winds, and helping clear skies. This may help areas of fog develop within the region. Latest high resolution guidance keeps coverage on the lower end, but does highlight areas within the Red River Valley as well as into northwest Minnesota. Should fog develop, timeframe generally resides 4 AM to 8 AM. Fog may be dense within the Red River Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Synopsis... Zonal flow across the northern CONUS today will gradually give way to more meridional flow by this weekend as ridging builds across the Rockies and Plains. Clusters then depict a couple stronger waves riding along the periphery of the ridge in Interior Canada. This could have impacts reaching some of the local thresholds for Heat Advisories or even an Extreme Heat Warning this weekend so the impact of these waves in the placement and amplitude of the ridge will certainly be something to watch. Along with these waves comes chances for some scattered rain though no drought busters. The main rain chance to be aware of looks to be Thursday evening/overnight mainly across our eastern North Dakota counties with chance for some strong to severe activity. - Thursday Severe Risk Amid mostly zonal to slightly NW flow will come a shortwave tomorrow with a developing low level jet in the evening ahead the pacific trough. As moisture surges north in central North Dakota with dewpoints nearing 70 potentially there will be no shortage CAPE with upwards of 3000-4000 MUCAPE and enough shear along clockwise curved hodographs for initially robust supercell structures. Capable of golf ball sized hail and potentially a few tornadoes though a later initiation time may shunt the tornado threat (an earlier storm start time may yield a higher threat.) Regardless as storms work east into our forecast area and namely the Devils Lake Basin around 7-9pm they should transition to a more elevated mode and the surface begins to cool with the cessation of daytime heating and hazards will evolve to primarily hail and an increasing wind threat storms likely congeal into one or more lines/bowing segments. Hazards for our area are hail to 1.75" and winds to 60mph. - Heat Impacts For this weekend as heat builds there is high confidence in much of eastern North Dakota seeing air temperatures cresting 90 degrees as early as Saturday and lasting through at least Monday when highs fall back into the 80s for the middle of next week. During this stretch the 25-75th percentile spread on potential high temperatures is a reasonable 5-8 degrees meaning while temps could end up slightly warmer or cooler than currently being forecast it is unlikely highs will only be in the lower 80s rather than lower 90s. Along with the warm temps will be heat indices near to above 100 Saturday through Monday. With this heat headlines look to be in order with Sunday being the hottest day of the stretch. Will wait until tomorrow at the earliest to issue any headlines for Saturday but it will be a proper July scorcher of a weekend regardless of any products being issued. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Other than a chance for fog within the Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota, high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Windowfor fog potential generally between 09Z-13Z, of which confidence is generally high enough of this potential to include at KFAR, but is liable to occur at KGFK as well. High pressure into the area will keep winds light and variable through the overnight and morning, and even into the afternoon with the exception of KDVL where winds increase to around 10kt out of the south after 16Z. Daytime cumulus after 15Z Friday is forecast to be rooted around 4-6kft again for the afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...CJ  013 FXUS63 KTOP 090316 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1016 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are expected to move across the area tonight. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain being the main hazards. - Low chances (15-30%) for showers/storms during the daytime hours Thursday and Friday with higher chances (30-60%) Thursday night and Friday night. - Temperatures hold near average through the weekend, then gradually warm up next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The KICT and KVNX are showing a south-southwest low level jet beginning to strengthen and nose into northeast KS. This should allow for elevated showers and storms to become more widespread across the forecast area overnight tonight, and the last several runs of the HRRR and 00Z CAMs support this. Have gone ahead and increased POPs and QPF across northeast KS. Steep lapse rates initially may allow for some robust updrafts. The main concern is going to be downdraft winds as freezing levels were sampled over 15KFT from the TOP RAOB this evening and the elevated nature of the storms with the boundary layer cooling should limit any potential spin ups but not completely rule it out. Overall the HRRR doesn't show a lot of severe wind gust potential and so the severe risk appears to be somewhat isolated. As the night goes on, surface based inhibition is forecast to only increase and storms may tend to weaken as they move east and southeast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Quasi-zonal flow resides across the Central Plains this afternoon with a surface low located over eastern Colorado. Ahead of this feature, increased southerly winds and deeper mixing have bumped temperatures into the low to mid 90s with heat index values approaching 100 in some areas. A MCV spinning over central Kansas has produced some showers and isolated thunderstorms and the potential for isolated showers/storms will continue as this features shifts east into an unstable and uncapped airmass this afternoon. Weak shear should preclude any severe potential, although inverted-V soundings would support stronger wind gusts if any storm does develop. The evolution of this MCV does lead to at least some additional uncertainty in how convection evolves this evening, but overall thinking remains consistent with previous shifts. As energy moves through the mean flow, convection will spark near the surface low across western Kansas and along a surface boundary in eastern/southern Nebraska and move into the area from the north and west. CAMs have been inconsistent in timing, coverage, and intensity of storms, although recent runs have come into better agreement in WAA showers/storms forming ahead of any complex that moves south out of Nebraska or in from the west. Best chances for severe weather will be with any line segment that does move into the area. An increasing cap along with decreasing instability through the overnight hours should still work to weaken storms as they push south early Thursday. Damaging wind gusts of 60-65 MPH remain the main severe hazard. PWATs around 1.75" will support heavy downpours and the potential for locally heavy rainfall, but the progression of storms should keep any flooding isolated in nature. Showers and storms exit the area by mid-morning Thursday as the front sags into east central Kansas and stalls. Highs on Thursday will be dependent upon how far south the front makes it and where any residual outflow boundary and cloud cover reside. There could be a large temperature gradient across the area, ranging from the low to mid 90s across central and north-central Kansas down to the low to mid 80s across far northeast Kansas. Any additional development during the afternoon and evening would likely be focused near the surface front that is progged to lie near the I-35 corridor. Another complex of storms that develops across the High Plains will work towards the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. The severe potential is low again with this round, but there could be some strong wind gusts with this activity. A similar set-up appears likely for Friday; low chance for an afternoon or evening storm with increasing shower/storm chances Friday night into Saturday morning. The boundary slowly oozes south early next week as mid-level ridging expands south and east across the central CONUS. Dry and hotter conditions are likely through the middle of next week, with some uncertainty in how hot temperatures will reach. The NBM is on the upper-end of the ensemble envelope with highs in the mid to upper 90s. While temperatures of this magnitude are plausible, easterly winds through the entire troposphere do not seem overly conducive for this level of heat. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of TS overnight. There is a good enough signal from the CAMs and MOS guidance to maintain TEMPO groups for TOP and FOE. There continues to be lower confidence for MHK where CAMs suggest TS just skirting to the east of the terminal. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Wolters DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Wolters  190 FXUS64 KBMX 090322 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1022 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1021 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 - Thunderstorms: Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for now through the beginning of next week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. && .DISCUSSION... (Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 The overall pattern doesn't change significantly over the next few days. Broad low level ridging will keep our warm/humid air mass in place and allow for our typical diurnal pattern of summertime thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoons. A very weak upper level low slowly shifts across to our north on Thursday, which could lead to slightly above normal coverage of those afternoon thunderstorms, but the overall forcing remains weak. As we go into the weekend and slow-moving boundary is expected to push southward into our area. This will provide a stronger focus for afternoon thunderstorms. Because of this, the coverage of thunderstorm activity will be higher across Central AL each afternoon Saturday through at least Monday before shifting more to the southern portions of our area by Tuesday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 A weak upper level low is expected to slowly move to our north through tomorrow. This will help provide some support for thunderstorm development during the afternoon on Thursday. Otherwise, generally a diurnal pattern for winds is expected as low level ridging remains in place. Generally light to calm winds overnight, increasing to 5-7kts during the day. Given the extra forcing from the upper low tomorrow, I'll include Prob30s for TSRA at all sites due to the convection being more widespread compared to Wednesday. Thunderstorm coverage should begin to diminish by 01z-03z Friday. 25/Owen && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns continue to be low. Our warm and moist air mass will remain in place with diurnally driving thunderstorm activity expected over the next several days. Winds will continue to generally be light during the day becoming calm during the overnight periods. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 92 72 92 / 20 30 10 60 Anniston 72 91 73 91 / 10 30 10 50 Birmingham 74 92 74 93 / 10 30 10 40 Tuscaloosa 73 91 74 93 / 10 40 10 30 Calera 73 95 74 96 / 10 40 10 40 Auburn 74 91 74 92 / 0 30 10 30 Montgomery 75 94 74 94 / 0 30 20 30 Troy 74 93 73 93 / 10 30 20 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...25/Owen AVIATION...25/Owen  302 FXUS66 KLOX 090326 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 826 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...08/826 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge of high pressure over the region. Temperatures will decrease slightly over the weekend as the ridge moves away from the region, but some heat impacts will continue. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting Sunday. Temperatures will begin to build once again on Tuesday, potentially reaching Major Heat Risk levels, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...08/826 PM. ***UPDATE*** Another warm day across the local area today during what is expected to be a prolonged stretch of warm weather. Temperatures will likely creep up a couple more degrees through Friday, especially across the interior and valleys, before slight cooling is anticipated over the upcoming weekend. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures this weekend, temperatures will remain above normal and likely warm further over the middle of next week, resulting in this expected prolonged period of warm weather. Once again, winds have really cranked up along the western Santa Ynez range this evening as the pressure gradient is currently around 4.5 mb, with gusts over 55 MPH recorded recently at both Gaviota and Refugio so far. The responsible pressure gradient is expected to relax some Thursday, with less significant Sundowner winds expected tomorrow evening. Finally, the marine layer can be seen on satellite beginning to fill in across parts of the western Santa Barbara coast, but this marine layer is expected to remain limited for areas south of Point Conception, with more clouds and patchy fog possible for the Central Coast. ***From Previous Discussion*** An upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region through Friday, before starting to move NE on Saturday. 500 mb heights will range from 594 to 59STDAFDLOX6 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal for this time of year. There will be onshore flow to the east strongest in the afternoon, but a few mb weaker than it was earlier this week. There will be a mb or two of offshore flow from the north in the mornings turning weakly onshore to the north in the afternoons. High temperatures continue to be the main concern through the forecast period. With rising 500mb heights through Thursday, lack of a solid marine layer, and only weak to moderate onshore flow in the afternoon, conditions will be warmer than normal for this time of year. High temperatures through Thursday will range 92-103 across the valleys and 75-92 across the coasts/inland coasts. These temperatures are 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. On Friday and over the weekend, 500 mb heights will decrease with a slight increase in onshore flow, leading to a few degrees of cooling. However, temperatures will remain above normal for the time of year. However, temperatures will start to increase again next week, even warmer than this week. Thus, The Heat Advisory for all the valleys, mountains, and Los Angeles Inland Coast has been extended through Tuesday morning (please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all details). Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening and Thursday evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County, and a Wind Advisory is in effect late this afternoon into early Thursday morning. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...08/139 PM. As previously mentioned, the upper level high pressure will shift NE late Friday through Sunday, and eventually reach the Dakotas. This northeastward shift will open the door for SE flow into Southern California. Meanwhile, at the surface, moderate to strong onshore flow will continue both to the north and east. With the SE flow, monsoonal moisture will move into the region Sunday night, lasting through basically all of the next week. While the moisture won't reach the region until Sunday night, there is still instability that will bring a 10-20% chance of dry thunderstorms on Sunday. However, once the moisture moves in Sunday night, PWATs will raise to 1-1.5 inches across most of the region (even up to Paso Robles) through at least Tuesday, bringing a 10-20% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to Southern California. As for the heat, another warming trend will start up Tuesday through Thursday, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk, and a 30% chance of Major HeatRisk to most of the region during those days. Thus, an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for the majority of the region, with temperatures of 90-112 degrees possible away from the coast. Additionally, the monsoonal moisture will add to the discomfort of the heat. && .AVIATION...09/0201Z. At 00z at KLAX, there was a surface based inversion. The top of the inversion was at 2900 ft deep with a temperature of 26 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 30 percent chc of IFR conds redeveloping this evening around 5-7z and lasting through 16Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z. Low confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLAX, KPRB (40 percent chc of IFR cigs 10Z-17Z) and KLGB (40 percent chc of no cigs) KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of OVC008 conds 12Z-17Z). Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...08/104 PM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Friday morning across the Outer Waters. There is a 50-70% chance of Gale Force winds this afternoon and evening into Friday morning. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid- week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend. SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel greatest during the afternoon and evening hours through at least Thursday. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoons/evenings through Thursday morning. For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through tonight. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...08/104 PM. A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through next week. With the swell, the potential for larger surf and greater risk for rip currents will continue. High tides are expected to increase this weekend going into next week with Monday expected to be the highest tide of 7.0 to 7.6 ft above MLLW. There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding next week with the high tides and south swell. One thing that will need to be watched into next week will be the potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential tropical development. Thunderstorms are also possible starting Sunday and going through next week with a 10-20% chance. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory now in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/KL/Rossi AVIATION...Phillips/SF MARINE...RM/Lund/CC/SF BEACHES...SF SYNOPSIS...RM/KL/SR weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  370 FXUS64 KLUB 090329 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1029 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Daily thunderstorm chances expected Thursday through Tuesday of next week with the greatest potential Saturday and Sunday. - Hot temperatures prevail through Saturday before a slight cool down expected early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current radar imager shows a weak outflow boundary just entering northwest Parmer County. This outflow will bring some breezy winds around 25 to 30 mph to northwestern zones. However, the boundary seems to be weakening quickly. Therefore, this boundary is not expected to make it very far through the forecast area. Small, short- lived showers have been developing along the boundary as it moved across eastern NM. However, in it's weakened state, chances for this will be low. Otherwise, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 70s to lower 80s across southern Rolling Plains. Thursday will be hot with slight thunderstorm chances across the southern Texas Panhandle. Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging dominating southwestern CONUS including much of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. The upper ridging is expected to gradually retreat west through the day, however the edge will still clip our CWA bringing northwesterly flow aloft. Thickness increases due to the upper ridging will warm temperatures a couple degrees with highs in the upper 90s on the Caprock to just below Heat Advisory level off the Caprock. Surface winds will start off the day from the southwest through the early afternoon before shifting to the southeast later in the day. A very similar thunderstorm set up as today is expected Thursday evening. Southeasterly surface upslope flow will result in thunderstorms developing across higher terrain in eastern NM. Northwesterly flow aloft will help in the storms tracking southeast to our forecast area. Models have see-sawed with how far these storms make it into our forecast area the past couple of forecasts. The greatest chances will be across the far southern Texas Panhandle, however cannot rule out these storms leaking into the northern South Plains. Severe storm potential is low with these storms. At most we will see rain showers with some breezy winds. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday will be a rinse and repeat of Thursday with hot temperatures and thunderstorm chances across northwestern zones of the CWA. Upper ridging will continue to dominate across southwestern CONUS as a broad upper trough begins to develop across eastern CONUS. With the forecast area sitting between the two upper disturbances, northwesterly flow will prevail aloft. Southeasterly surface flow will result in thunderstorms developing across higher terrain in eastern NM once again. Northwesterly upper flow will give the push these storms need to track southeast into our CWA. Thunderstorms are expected across the far southern Texas Panhandle with a low chance of expanding into the northern South Plains. Severe potential is low with these storms, however could see some gusty winds and outflows. Hot temperatures with highs in the 90s to triple digits continue Friday and Saturday. We will see a slight cool down beginning Sunday that is expected to continue through at least mid-week. Multiple upper shortwaves passing everyday will continue daily thunderstorm chances. Models indicate a weak front will approach the forecast area early next week possibly pushing the moist air to thesouth of the CWA effectively cutting short the daily thunderstorm chances. The current NBM keeps precipitation chances through Tuesday, however could see changes to future forecasts as the NBM catches up to the progression of the weak front. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR TAFs thru 00Z/09 with mainly clear skies and a southerly breeze. JW && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...13  633 FXUS64 KHUN 090337 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1037 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Mainly low to medium (30-70%) for showers and thunderstorms are expect on Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Friday. Heat index values should drop into the 95 to 100 degree range Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Most of the shower and scattered thunderstorms that impacted the area earlier have pushed east into NW GA at this time. However, isolated to scattered showers continue to develop along a boundary that stretches WSW from this activity across Marshall county to just east of the Columbus, MS radar. 1500 J/KG to 3000 J/KG seem to still be in place near and south of this boundary. Earlier shower and thunderstorm activity that formed along an outflow boundary moving southeast from NW Tennessee has dissipated with the loss of daytime heating. Clear skies are currently in place across much of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Temperatures are currently in the lower 70s to around 80 degrees in most locations. Dewpoint depressions are already 1 to 5 degrees in many locations. Expect patchy to areas of fog to form quickly this evening, especially near and west of the I-65 corridor. If we see dense fog that lasts very long or is widespread in nature will depend on whether cloud cover develops and how quickly it does tonight. Based on several mesoscale models, think that we will see some patchy fog to dense fog at times this evening, before cloud cover and mixing from a trough axis aloft that moves from NW Mississippi over the area. This should break up cloud cover and develops some shower and scattered thunderstorms development over the area after 2 or 3 AM. It is not out of the question we will need a Dense Fog Advisory for a portion of the area between now and 1 or 2 AM, before cloud cover develops and stronger forcing moves more directly over the area. However, confidence is still low at this time one will be needed. Little shear is shown as the trough axis moves into NW Alabama overnight into the daybreak hours on Thursday. However, based on current SBCAPE seen in analysis, think some instability will still be available to tap into. So, maintained a low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly producing heavy downpours and frequent lightning towards daybreak on Thursday. This activity will likely push east and just south of the area after 1 PM. However, a low to medium (30-50%) of scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the afternoon hours on Thursday. Again, instability looks too meager for any severe microbursts, but heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will be the main threats. It is expected to be cooler on Thursday with highs only in the mid 80s to around 91 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect activity to dissipate sooner Thursday evening. However, another shortwave looks to push ESE through flow aloft overnight producing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to push into southern middle Tennessee and northeastern Alabama through daybreak on Friday. Low temperatures with cloud cover and a focusing mechanism for low level moisturewill likely only drop into the lower 70s. The surface boundary associated with this upper level disturbance seems to linger over northern Alabama during the day on Friday. This would likely keep fairly high chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast(40-80%) into the early afternoon hours on Friday, before decreasing from west to east. SBCAPE climbs higher to between 2000 and 4000 J/KG in most guidance. Between the better instability, lift, and some soundings showing theta E difference values increasing again to around 30 again, severe microbursts seem possible. Again the early arrival of precipitation around daybreak and continued development in the afternoon will keep highs in the mid 80s to around 91 degrees. Models seem to be set on this pattern of another shortwave moving southeast into northern AL and NE Tennessee late Friday night into very early Saturday morning as well. This should be ample ingredients for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Temperatures when you wake up should again be in the lower 70s. A medium to high (30-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected during this period. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours will be the main threats with any thunderstorms through daybreak on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 We will remain in a humid, tropical airmass through Saturday as zonal flow aloft is challenged by broad upper troughing over the northeast Atlantic. An increase in PVE with the warm humid airmass in place ahead will result in medium to high (70-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday peaking during diurnal heating hours of the afternoon. With PWAT values between 1.8-2", localized flooding could occur across areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain. As high pressure expands across the Great Lakes, a frontal boundary will shift southward on Sunday and should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity. Temperatures behind this feature will top out in the mid to upper 80s from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with cooler overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The good news is that this will keep the HeatRisk in the Minor (level 1) category which highlights the risk for heat related illness in those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will not be as dangerous overall compared to what we have experienced lately. Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the long term forecast but will primarily be diurnally driven with a very low risk for any severe storms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions have returned to the terminals after afternoon thunderstorms affected the region. Clear to mostly clear skies are forecast overnight and patchy dense fog may affect the TAF sites. Confidence in this was too low to include in the TAFs at this time but trends will be monitored this evening and fog may be added for the 06z update. Additional thunderstorms are forecast tomorrow, with higher confidence in coverage near the HSV terminal. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25  716 FXUS63 KLSX 090340 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1040 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe Thursday and Friday afternoons with damaging winds the primary threat along with locally heavy rainfall. - Mostly dry weather with temperatures slightly above average are forecast Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Dry weather is forecast tonight with light winds and seasonably warm temperatures. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the mid-Missouri Valley and head east/southeast late tonight into early Thursday morning. This activity should weaken gradually with time as it enters central/northeast Missouri due to an abating low-level jet and lesser instability to work with. A remnant MCV is likely to remain from this morning convection and work eastward. By early-mid afternoon, this feature should help develop renewed convection downstream, mostly likely along/east of the Mississippi River. Instability will increase with time, and combined with some enhanced (~30 knots) effective shear downstream of the aforementioned MCV, at least a few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur. Damaging winds will be the main threat along with locally heavy rainfall from roughly 2 PM until 10 PM. While the severe threat likely will wane by mid-late evening, the low-level jet does ramp up. Enhanced low-level moisture convergence on the nose of the jet should lead to fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms across southeast Missouri and far southwest Illinois. These storms may tend to train (especially if they stay elevated) over the same areas so the threat for isolated flash flooding may increase. Precipitable water values are expected to be high, generally above 1.75" or closer to the 95th percentile of climatology. Flash flood guidance though is also real high (>3"/3 hr), and the low-level jet does veer about 30 degrees from 0600 to 1200 UTC Friday. This should help shift convection equatorward overnight, lessening the duration of accumulating rainfall. Therefore, will hold off on a flash flood watch for now. Gosselin && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Friday - Saturday Night) Forecast uncertainty increases after Thursday night. Deterministic model guidance is hinting at another midlevel shortwave trough (or convectively-induced MCV) moving eastward in zonal flow aloft. The timing/track/strength of this feature is unknown, but additional showers and thunderstorms should develop by Friday afternoon. Similar to Thursday afternoon, there should be plenty of instability and just enough shear in place for the threat of damaging wind gusts. At this early juncture, the best chances of thunderstorms and severe weather would be across southeast Missouri. This is where the effective frontal boundary is most likely to be located, but the exact location will of course depend heavily on the evolution of convection Thursday night. Friday night into Saturday morning may have a subsequent round of showers and thunderstorms as the low-level jet increases. Exactly where and how organized this round will be is highly uncertain, but I would tend to favor southeast Missouri and points south. Each preceding round of convection may tend to shift the effective front farther south and deterministic guidance (especially coarser resolution) tends to be too far north with these subsequent rounds. If parts of southeast Missouri and adjacent southwest Illinois do end up receiving additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, the flash flood threat would increase though at this timerange there is too much uncertainty to say whether or not any given location will see multiple rounds. (Sunday - Next Wednesday) A record-breaking mid/upper level ridge is forecast to amplify across the northern Plains late this weekend into early next week with deep northeasterly flow across the mid-Mississippi Valley. A shift to dry weather along with temperatures running slightly above normal seems likely during this period of time. There is some uncertainty with the exact strength/placement of the mid/upper level ridge heading into the middle of next week. One cluster of the 500-hPa height pattern has a more elongated west-east ridge (~25% of LREF members) over our area. If this scenario were to occur, highs more into the mid 90s would be expected. However, even in that scenario, surface dewpoints should tend to lower with time and heat index values likely would stay largely below 100 degrees. On the other end of the spectrum, there is a cluster (~10% of members) that has a much deeper trough moving across the Great Lakes/northeast. This scenario would potentially lead to much cooler (highs mid 80s) temperatures. The current forecast lies between these two opposite ends of the spectrum, and more toward the middle two clusters which comprises a large majority of LREF members. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Very light winds and a clear sky are expected for much of the night, but thunderstorms developing to the west over Kansas and western Missouri are expected to gradually push eastward Thursday morning. They'll be weakening to remnant showers as they arrive, leaving low confidence in any impacts in central Missouri or Quincy. However, as they move east toward the Mississippi River by afternoon, redevelopment is expected. This is more likely to affect the St Louis metro TAF sites, though confidence is only about 30 percent at this range. A few scattered thunderstorms may develop elsewhere Thursday afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in any other TAF. Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  805 FXUS66 KSEW 090342 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 842 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .UPDATE...No changes made in this evening's update. The marine layer has long since scoured out - leaving mostly wispy mid to high level clouds along with a nice sunset. For tonight, areas of marine stratus and possible localized fog are slated to develop. Min temps are forecast to range between the mid 40s to mid 50s. The previous discussion remains below along with an updated aviation section. && .SYNOPSIS... Onshore flow will persist through the week, keeping western Washington cooler with mixes of clouds and sun, as well as slight chances of showers over portions of the Olympics and Cascades. High pressure will build under a ridge early next week, with high temperatures climbing back into the low 80s for portions of the interior. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A pretty persistent onshore pattern continues across western WA. A weak front/trough continues to move east of the region, with cloud coverage holding on in the interior on satellite this afternoon. The cloud coverage is dissipating on the coast/north interior, with some cloud breaks delayed to late afternoon/evening. Temperatures will stay cool with highs in the 60s to low to mid 70s, with lows in the 50s through much of the short term as the onshore pattern continues. Thursday in this period appears the best day to see sunshine in the afternoon, as the onshore gradient weakens some. The overall pattern is dry, but with some forced mountain ascent with limited (but sufficient moisture), a couple showers in the Olympics and Cascades can't be ruled out this afternoon, and Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Onshore pattern will continue Saturday with a trough beginning to dip south into the Pacific, and moving onshore Sunday. Once again, a few showers will be possible Saturday and Sunday for portions of the mountains as a front drives through under the trough. Cloud coverage largely holds on through late Sunday, as the trough moves inland. Ensembles show a brief ridge building in between troughs on Monday and Tuesday. There is some disagreement as to how sharp (or broad) the trough offshore will be (which may lead to some tweaks into the next week forecast as the models get closer) but a brief warmup on Monday and Tuesday appears likely. Highs these days will climb back into the low 80s across most of the central/south interior, but there is only a 10-30% chance of Moderate (Orange) HeatRisk. Cooling off on Wednesday remains a question as to how quickly the next trough offshore moves inland. HPR && .AVIATION... Low stratus has cleared most of the regional air terminals this afternoon though some lingering scattered clouds between 4-6kft AGL persist across the central Puget sound vicinity. Otherwise...expecting return of coastal stratus late tonight and a 15-25% chance of some marginal MVFR ceilings reaching inland to Seattle by daybreak. Anticipating more rapid clearing on Thursday with VFR conditions for most TAF sites by late morning. Breezy conditions early this evening near the coast and Strait of Juan De Fuca will impact KCLM, KHQM, and KBFI through sunset before diminishing with lighter winds expected Thursday. KSEA...Improving sky conditions have developed near SEATAC this afternoon though scattered clouds with bases between 4-6kft AGL persist. An increase in cloud cover is expected tonight with a 15- 25% chance of marginal MVFR ceilings by daybreak. Overall however, ceilings and overall sky conditions are expected to be better than last night, with decreasing clouds and VFR conditions expected to return by late morning Thursday. Winds will be light through the period, favoring south and southwest directions by early Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Onshore flow will prevail through the remainder of the week and weekend. Highest wind/waves will be found through the Strait of Juan de Fuca during the afternoon and evening hours. Gales or Small Craft Advisory westerly winds are expected through the strait each day. 33/AH && .FIRE WEATHER... The current onshore pattern will continue through next weekend, which will lead to continued periods of excellent moisture recoveries (RH values) next few mornings. A ridge and high pressure pattern appear likely to briefly build into the region Monday and Tuesday next week. While the onshore pattern will largely remain in place with light winds, warmer daytime temperatures and clear skies will likely lead to RH values dipping into the 30s and 20s, with the lowest values in the south interior and Cascades. This will allow dry fine fuels to continue to dry, and so piles of dead fuels, or dry grass/shrub areas may become susceptible to fire starts Monday and Tuesday with elevated fire weather conditions. HPR && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$  847 FXUS64 KJAN 090344 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1044 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels (limited to elevated) of heat will return Thursday and persist into the weekend. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight tonight as the atmosphere is still humid and unstable, however any additional activity would likely need lift assistance from outflow boundaries left from evening convection. Showers and storms remain possible again tomorrow afternoon, mainly along and east of the Interstate 55 corridor. An isolated shower or storm could occur elsewhere. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This afternoon through tonight: As was the case yesterday, we're seeing most of the deep convection focused outside of our forecast area this afternoon. A few storms could manage to move in or develop over the area as we go through the evening, but coverage should stay fairly sparse by July standards. Thursday into the weekend: Rain chances will diminish for Thu- Fri and remain relatively low for this time of the year as the subtropical ridge rebuilds over the forecast area. Accompanying the building ridge will be an increasing heat danger risk with H850 temps approach 21 deg C and low level flow developing a more westerly component. We will continue to message this threat with a heat danger graphic and coordinate with neighboring forecast areas concerning any heat advisory issuances that may become necessary. Early to mid next week: Global models have a had a strong signal for a shortwave trough rotating around the ridge and sending a boundary toward our area in the Mon-Tue time frame, and this could support a significant round or two of convective rainfall. Along with this, the heat will diminish to below dangerous levels. For next Wednesday, a typical mid summer regime with convective rainfall focused mainly over southern portions of the area should exist. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites through the period. Isolated SHRA or TSRA through the period could cause brief reductions in visibility or impacts from thunder, but confidence in impacts is too low to include in TAFs at this time. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 93 74 93 / 10 10 10 10 Meridian 73 93 74 94 / 20 30 0 10 Vicksburg 75 94 76 93 / 10 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 75 94 75 94 / 10 20 0 40 Natchez 75 94 75 94 / 20 10 0 10 Greenville 74 94 76 94 / 20 10 0 0 Greenwood 74 94 75 94 / 30 30 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/NF  079 FXUS64 KMAF 090347 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1047 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1046 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Isolated thunderstorms (10-20%) will be possible this afternoon over the Big Bend and over higher terrain areas Thursday and Friday. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An upper-level ridge continues to extend across the Desert Southwest and into southeast New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon. Deep layer subsidence underneath this feature is largely suppressing cloud cover across our region early this afternoon except for a few high-based cumulus. Weak upslope flow and ascent along the northern periphery of a weak shortwave impulse over northern Mexico could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Big Bend region this afternoon, but any activity that develops should diminish by early this evening. Low temperatures early Thursday morning should average near normal with readings mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The upper-level ridge will continue to stretch from southern California into west Texas again on Thursday. Mostly sunny skies can expected again across our region with hot temperatures in the mid 90s to around 103 degrees over most places. Weak upslope flow could result in the development of a couple of isolated cells over the higher terrain Thursday afternoon, but POPs will be 20% or less. Lows Thursday night remain seasonably warm in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper-level ridge will strengthen over the Four Corners and adjacent Rocky Mountains and northern High Plains Friday through the weekend. Isolated afternoon convection will remain confined to higher terrain areas both Friday and Saturday with mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures persisting over the rest of the forecast area. An easterly to northeasterly mid-level flow pattern generally returns late this weekend into early next week as our forecast area becomes positioned to the south of the building ridge over the central and northern Plains. Medium range and ensemble guidance indicate an increase in deep layer moisture with this pattern with precipitable water values rising to between 1.5- 1.75 inches early next week. Shortwave impulses in the mid-level flow along with the increased moisture and afternoon heating/ instability will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of our region Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most areas both days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. Convective chances will be nil, but forecast soundings develop a cu field late Thursday morning/early afternoon, w/bases ~ 6-8 kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 101 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 93 70 94 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 70 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 61 92 63 95 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...99  164 FXUS63 KGRB 090351 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1051 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Localized flooding is possible overnight in urban, low-lying, and poorly drained areas. - Trends continue to be monitored for the excessive heat potential early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front stretching from west-central to north-central Wisconsin early this afternoon. Morning showers and storms have exited over northern Lake Michigan, giving way to partial clearing across central and east-central Wisconsin where temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s. Cooler temperatures in the lower to middle 70s persist across the north where cloud cover and rainfall were more widespread. Cloud cover is becoming more extensive again over southern Minnesota in association with a remnant MCV. Focus of this forecast remains on the severe weather and flash flooding potential through this evening. Severe Weather and Flood Outlook: Destabilization is actively taking place early this afternoon over central and east-central Wisconsin where mixed- layer CAPE is climbing upwards of 1000 J/kg. With further solar heating, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop in a buoyant airmass south of the front and across central Wisconsin in the 18-20Z time frame. These storms should track east through the afternoon before propagating southeast this evening as a cold pool becomes established. Deep layer shear of 25 to 35 knots is expected in the area of greatest concern across central and east- central Wisconsin. This shear profile will be supportive of a few bowing structures and perhaps an isolated supercell. Given the modest shear aloft, conditions will be most favorable for damaging wind gusts rather than severe hail. High freezing levels around 15,000 feet and poor mid-level lapse rates do not favor large hail, except within the strongest rotating updrafts. A weak, isolated tornado will also be possible, most likely focused along an outflow boundary or lake breeze where low- level vorticity is enhanced. The greatest period of concern is from 3 to 7 PM before storms shift south and east of the forecast area. Scattered shower and storm activity could persist into the overnight period, but a stabilizing atmosphere should keep intensities below severe levels. Upper-level flow will be nearly parallel to the surface front within a corridor of precipitable water values approaching 2.00 inches and high freezing levels. High rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are expected in the strongest storms, which could lead to localized flash flooding in vulnerable urban, low-lying, and poorly drained areas. Fog Potential Late Tonight: After the rain winds down late tonight into Thursday morning, there is a decent signal for fog development, particularly across central to north-central Wisconsin where clearing will occur first. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding how long showers stick around into Thursday. A moist boundary layer, weak cyclonic flow in the low levels, and weak shortwave impulses aloft could keep light showers lingering into the afternoon over central and east- central Wisconsin. Excessive Heat Outlook: An amplified upper air pattern featuring a dominant upper- level ridge is expected to build northeast into the region Friday through the weekend and persist into early next week. High pressure at the surface will slide across the area Friday through the weekend. While minor signals for spotty shower activity exist in some medium-range guidance, forcing is non- existent beneath the building ridge, and a dry forecast has been maintained.The primary story in the extended period will be potential for excessive heat. Very warm air aloft will accompany the building ridge will argue for surface high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Coupled with humidities remaining high, minor heat- related impacts appear possible at this time for those outdoors. Some relief from the heat and humidity is expected towards the middle to end of the next work week as the ridge begins to suppress southward. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and a couple storms will continue overnight into Thursday morning as a cold front sags south across the area. Main hazards will be heavy rain and lightning. Ceilings and visibilities will drop through the night as low clouds and fog spread in/develop, with IFR/LIFR conditions for much of the area. Some VLIFR conditions are possible, especially across northern WI. The fog will lift Thursday morning, with clearing skies expected in the afternoon. Patchy/areas of fog is again expected Thursday evening/night. Winds will remain under 10 kts. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC AVIATION.......Bersch  162 FXUS63 KUNR 090351 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 951 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Unsettled through Thursday as a series of disturbances move through the region -Sufficient moisture and shear is in place to support a few strong to severe storms -Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Convection continues this evening across portions of northeastern Wyoming, northwestern South Dakota, and southwestern South Dakota. The severe threat has largely ended. No major changes to the forecast. Meager westerly flow coupled with weak large-scale ascent will limit overall coverage and a more widespread severe threat. Expect convection initiation on the Black Hills after 1200-1300 Thursday afternoon, where marginal effective bulk shear will be in place (~25-30 knots). A few strong to severe storms are possible; large hail is a threat with any supercellular structures that can sustain themselves. Similar to the past few days, up to golf ball sized hail are possible with the strongest transient single cells. Beyond the severe threat tomorrow, building heat will become the dominant weather story along with worsening fire weather conditions through the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Tuesday) Issued at 1103 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impulse filled westerly flow remains in place over the FA. Daily chances for thunderstorms can be expected with strong to severe storms possible at times, through Thursday. Weak impulse will advect through the SW third this afternoon and support TS clusters. Ample LL moisture in place combined with sufficient deep layer shear will support a few strong to severe storms, with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, mainly INVOF of the Black Hills. Given ML CAPE of 1-2 KJ/KG, deep bulk layer shear of 35 to 40 knots expect isolated supercells to be possible, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Storms will carry SE across the SW FA through the evening. More storms are expected Thur as sufficient LL moisture will be in place with weak stability and another impulse. Best chances for storms will be in the afternoon/evening. Similar CAPE/shear parameters will be in place to again support a few strong to severe storms, esp over the SW third. Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend, with dry and hot conds expected. Hot temps around 35C at h85 with close to 6000m H5 heights over WY, will offer record to near record highs well into the 100s with some areas seeing readings around 110 on portions of the Plains, esp Sunday and Monday. However, given how dry the BL will be with dewpoints falling into the 20s in the west to the 50s east, apparent T's will only top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s, highest on the SD Plains, supporting adv level numbers. Ridge begins to retrograde the middle of next week, with storm chances returning as the active northern periphery of the ridge settles back south. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 519 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorms will continue move across northeast Wyoming and western/southwestern South Dakota through the evening and overnight hours. Hail, frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic winds can be expected with any stronger convective cores. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions are also expected around any heavier precipitation cores. Conditions will begin to improve between 09/10-12z as storms diminish and move out of the region. Another round of storms will begin to develop over northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota late Thursday morning, lasting through the remainder ofthe forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SE DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...Schultz  227 FXUS63 KUNR 090354 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 954 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Unsettled through Thursday as a series of disturbances move through the region -Sufficient moisture and shear is in place to support a few strong to severe storms -Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Convection continues this evening across portions of northeastern Wyoming, northwestern South Dakota, and southwestern South Dakota. The severe threat has largely ended. No major changes to the forecast. Meager westerly flow coupled with weak large-scale ascent will limit overall coverage and a more widespread severe threat. Expect convection initiation on the Black Hills after 1200-1300 Thursday afternoon, where marginal effective bulk shear will be in place (~25-30 knots). A few strong to severe storms are possible; large hail is a threat with any supercellular structures that can sustain themselves. Similar to the past few days, up to golf ball sized hail are possible with the strongest transient single cells. Beyond the severe threat tomorrow, building heat will become the dominant weather story along with worsening fire weather conditions through the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Tuesday) Issued at 1103 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impulse filled westerly flow remains in place over the FA. Daily chances for thunderstorms can be expected with strong to severe storms possible at times, through Thursday. Weak impulse will advect through the SW third this afternoon and support TS clusters. Ample LL moisture in place combined with sufficient deep layer shear will support a few strong to severe storms, with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, mainly INVOF of the Black Hills. Given ML CAPE of 1-2 KJ/KG, deep bulk layer shear of 35 to 40 knots expect isolated supercells to be possible, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Storms will carry SE across the SW FA through the evening. More storms are expected Thur as sufficient LL moisture will be in place with weak stability and another impulse. Best chances for storms will be in the afternoon/evening. Similar CAPE/shear parameters will be in place to again support a few strong to severe storms, esp over the SW third. Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend, with dry and hot conds expected. Hot temps around 35C at h85 with close to 6000m H5 heights over WY, will offer record to near record highs well into the 100s with some areas seeing readings around 110 on portions of the Plains, esp Sunday and Monday. However, given how dry the BL will be with dewpoints falling into the 20s in the west to the 50s east, apparent T's will only top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s, highest on the SD Plains, supporting adv level numbers. Ridge begins to retrograde the middle of next week, with storm chances returning as the active northern periphery of the ridge settles back south. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued At 954 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorms will continue move across portions of western South Dakota through the overnight hours. Transient MVFR conditions are still possible around any heavier precipitation cores. Conditions will begin to improve between 09/08-10z as storms diminish and move out of the region. Another round of storms will begin to develop over northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota around 09/18z and lasting through the remainder of the forecast period. Hail, frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic winds can be expected with any stronger convective cores. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions also expected around any heavier precipitation cores. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SE DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...Schultz