595 FXUS63 KOAX 090401 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1101 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cluster of thunderstorms will continue moving southeast this evening into the overnight hours. The main hazards will be pockets of strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. - Near-normal temperatures continue into Friday, with highs generally in the 80s. - A stretch of hot weather is expected this weekend into next week, with highs in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight through Friday... A cluster of thunderstorms have developed along a front draped across northeast Nebraska earlier this evening, supported by a shortwave trough pushing across the northern Plains. Rather limited deep-layer shear (around 20 kts) has kept the initial storm development rather stationary along this boundary. Ample instability (MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg) along with the sufficient shear has brought pockets of strong to severe storms along this cluster. Cold-pool development behind the line will lead to an eventual southward push of this system into the overnight period. As the cold-pool helps force the storms into more of an upscale cluster, isolated pockets of damaging wind gusts (pockets of 60 mph) will be one of the primary hazards over the next few hours, aided by DCAPE of 1000-1200 J/kg. The severe weather potential will gradually decay into the overnight period. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain another concern. PWAT values near 1.80-2" (above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology) and warm cloud depths of 4 km have brought efficient rainfall processes, especially when coupled with the longer residence time. Pockets of 3- 4.50 inches of rainfall have been reported, with the highest totals in western Iowa. CAM guidance continues to hint at a few scattered storms redeveloping behind the main cluster overnight, though the severe weather potential will be limited with these storms given the increasing inhibition and decreasing shear. Storms will push southward across the area overnight, clearing much of the forecast area by 7 AM. Can't rule out a few afternoon storms redeveloping along the front in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, though the better shear and instability should stay just to our south. The lingering cloud cover and slightly cooler air mass will bring afternoon highs in the low to upper 80s. Similar temperatures are expected on Friday with partly cloudy skies. Saturday and Beyond... This weekend into early next week, an amplifying mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to build over the Front Range and gradually expand eastward into the mid-Missouri Valley, leading to a warming trend and relatively dry conditions. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will take a step upward into the upper 80s to mid 90s. By Monday, most locations are expected to reach the 90s a few spots in northeast Nebraska expected to reach the triple digits. Overnight lows will remain in the low 70s. Heat index values are expected to reach the mid 90s to around 105 degrees daily. This hot pattern with minimal precipitation chances will continue into the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 522 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorm development is underway along a front draped across northeast Nebraska this evening. Storms will quickly grow into a larger cluster that slowly pushes southward into the overnight period. Confidence is high (80%) that each terminal will see thunderstorms tonight, with some amendments/refinements likely needed in exact timing. Patchy MVFR to IFR conditions are possible under any heavier thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms will also be possible, with pockets of damaging wind gusts (up to 50 kts) and hail (up to 1.50 inches). Severe weather potential will gradually diminish into the overnight period. Storms will clear from north to south during the early morning hours Thursday, with patchy MVFR ceilings possible into the morning hours behind the clearing showers. Winds will remain out of the south ahead of the front, quickly shifting to northerly behind the front. Winds will remain at 8-12 kts, besides when augmented by thunderstorm gusts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood  630 FXUS64 KOUN 090402 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1052 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered showers/storms are expected to develop over northern Oklahoma overnight. - Storm chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through this week with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .UPDATE... Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Diurnally driven isolated convection has dissipated over north- central Oklahoma. A loose complex of convection is now moving eastward over the High Plains to our west. High resolution models show that this activity may wane before reaching the 100th meridian, but that forcing/ascent will translate eastward as a 40 kt low level jet kicks in. CAMs generate scattered convective showers/storms between 06-12z with HREF probabilities for >0.01 in at 40% from Woodward to Ponca City to just nw of OKC. Yet probs for >0.10 in are only 10-20%. Forecast soundings show this activity will generally remain rooted in the midlevels, so severe weather will be unlikely. Have increased overnight PoPs along and north of I40 into the 15-40% range. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds are out of the southwest along and west of I-35 as of the noon hour. This is tracking with surface temperatures warming a degree or two faster than NBM/official guidance, which is unsurprising in that regime. Parts of central and southern Oklahoma stand a good chance of seeing their first 100-degree day of 2026. Convection should be pretty limited in scope today given the lack of cumulus development to this point. Near-term guidance suggests that we will eventually see weak convection in south central/southeast Oklahoma where surface winds will remain a little more backed and dewpoints stand a better chance of holding in the low-to-mid 70s. Dry mid-levels and hot boundary layers will promote 1,600+ J/kg of DCAPE, so wouldn't be surprised to see downbursts even with small cores. Winds remain southwesterly tonight. NBM suggests low temperatures near 80 degrees, and with the breeze remaining from that direction I'd be hard-pressed to say that it will be wrong. Meister && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tomorrow will be almost as hot as today along and south of an advancing cold front. There's a weak signal for showers just before daybreak along the front in north central Oklahoma with several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. In all likelihood, that activity will taper off during the morning hours and lead the boundary to stall there. That boundary is a potential focusing mechanism for further convection in the afternoon and evening hours across northern and western Oklahoma. A moist layer in the mid-levels may prevent ginormous DCAPE values from being realized, but a low-end downburst threat will persist. Otherwise, heat continues to be the story with a pretty good chance that we will need Heat Advisories near and just south of the front. A more organized round of storms is probable across the Central Plains late tomorrow evening with near-easterly surface winds and a decent reservoir of instability to work with. A reasonable expectation would be that storms arrive into northwest Oklahoma around 9:00 pm. Whether this is a cluster, organized MCS, or just decaying updrafts remains to be seen. The primary concerns would be damaging winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Uncertainty increases on Friday given the potential for modulation of thefrontal boundary. However, that will be the focusing point for both heat risk and storm potential along and south of it - perhaps from north central Oklahoma toward the I-40 corridor. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Aforementioned showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday across much of the area. Temperatures will be cooler over the weekend, however, with increasing surface dewpoints, afternoon heat indices will still be in the 100s. Mid-level ridge will shift to the north across the central and high Plains into next week, helping to keep temperatures near average across the southern Plains. As of right now, the overall synoptic pattern next week will support above average temperatures and below average precipitation.Clinton, Will Rogers/OKC, and Westheimer/OUN. Bunker && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 We continue to generally expect VFR conditions to prevail at all sites...however...confidence is increasing somewhat that we will see scattered convective activity translate across northern Oklahoma during the 06-12z timeframe. Maintained previous 30% probabilities for modest vis restrictions and CBs/TSRA from Woodward to Ponca City/Stillwater. We also maintained tempos at Clinton, Will Rogers/OKC, and Westheimer/OUN for temporally briefer impacts from roughly 08-12z at && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 101 78 99 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 78 101 78 100 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 101 72 99 / 20 10 40 10 Ponca City OK 78 99 74 96 / 30 10 20 10 Durant OK 80 98 76 97 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...20 SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...20  721 FXUS63 KAPX 090403 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1203 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain and isolated strong storms through Thursday. - Significant heat and humidity builds once again by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Deep moisture will overspread northern Michigan tonight into Thursday as several mid level shortwaves ride along a quasi- stationary frontal boundary layed out across central Wisconsin into northern Michigan. Enhanced low level convergence along this boundary will provide the potential for locally heavy rains. The front will eventually sag south of the area, setting northern Michigan up for a mainly dry weekend. Significant heat and humidity build early next week as high amplitude ridging strengthens over the center of the CONUS. A myriad of model solutions tonight, largely influenced by convective evolution during the day and residual boundaries. Tonight likely features the best combination of moisture and forcing for heavy rain and possibly localized flooding with PWATs surging toward 200% of normal. Forecast soundings show deep moisture through the column, warm layer cloud depths to 12k+ and skinny CAPE - overall a favorable look for heavy rain. The activity tonight will be a very efficient heavy rain producer and we will have to watch for possible flooding in any areas with antecedent high soil moistures from recent rains (Leelanau County through the Tip of the Mitt). Later tonight into Thursday, a surface low will ride along the boundary draped across the area, further enhancing rain potential and slowing any southward drift of the front. The shower and storm chances continue on Thursday, with a slow southward shift in focus as the aforementioned boundary slowly sinks southward. Although only marginal instability through Thursday, a few stronger storms will be possible with gusty winds the main threat (due to precipitation loading). A nice summer weekend shaping up for northern Michigan with mainly dry conditions and highs in the 80s. Generally comfortable humidity levels as well, with a slight rise in surface dewpoints by Sunday as moisture begins to work back into the Great Lakes. A washed out frontal boundary on Sunday could be the focusing mechanism for a shower or storm but most of that appears to remain north of our area. More significant heat returns early next week as a large amplitude ridge builds to our west. Rising humidity will accompany the heat, with heat indices likely pushing well into the 90s (or higher). Some of the warmest temperatures for the week may occur early in the week, where the mid level cap will be strongest and convective development limited (much like occurred a week ago). The cap breaks down by midweek and "ridge runner" convective complexes will be possible across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mainly light showers have spread across northern Michigan this evening and will continue at times tonight. MVFR VSBYs are being observed across some locations (including MBL) and will be possible into Thursday morning. Flight conditions will continue to degrade as the environment moistens overnight, dropping CIGs to IFR/LIFR for most areas into Thursday. Additional showers and a few storms are expected into Thursday afternoon. Flight conditions look to gradually improve through the day, likely becoming VFR for all TAF sites Thursday evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JK AVIATION...DJC  862 FXUS63 KFGF 090407 CCA AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1006 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 2 out of 5 risk Thursday overnight for the Devils Lake basin. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms. - Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Surface high pressure centered in southern MB will extend its influence into our area, calming winds, and helping clear skies. This may help areas of fog develop within the region. Latest high resolution guidance keeps coverage on the lower end, but does highlight areas within the Red River Valley as well as into northwest Minnesota. Should fog develop, timeframe generally resides 4 AM to 8 AM. Fog may be dense within the Red River Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Synopsis... Zonal flow across the northern CONUS today will gradually give way to more meridional flow by this weekend as ridging builds across the Rockies and Plains. Clusters then depict a couple stronger waves riding along the periphery of the ridge in Interior Canada. This could have impacts reaching some of the local thresholds for Heat Advisories or even an Extreme Heat Warning this weekend so the impact of these waves in the placement and amplitude of the ridge will certainly be something to watch. Along with these waves comes chances for some scattered rain though no drought busters. The main rain chance to be aware of looks to be Thursday evening/overnight mainly across our eastern North Dakota counties with chance for some strong to severe activity. - Thursday Severe Risk Amid mostly zonal to slightly NW flow will come a shortwave tomorrow with a developing low level jet in the evening ahead the pacific trough. As moisture surges north in central North Dakota with dewpoints nearing 70 potentially there will be no shortage CAPE with upwards of 3000-4000 MUCAPE and enough shear along clockwise curved hodographs for initially robust supercell structures. Capable of golf ball sized hail and potentially a few tornadoes though a later initiation time may shunt the tornado threat (an earlier storm start time may yield a higher threat.) Regardless as storms work east into our forecast area and namely the Devils Lake Basin around 7-9pm they should transition to a more elevated mode and the surface begins to cool with the cessation of daytime heating and hazards will evolve to primarily hail and an increasing wind threat storms likely congeal into one or more lines/bowing segments. Hazards for our area are hail to 1.75" and winds to 60mph. - Heat Impacts For this weekend as heat builds there is high confidence in much of eastern North Dakota seeing air temperatures cresting 90 degrees as early as Saturday and lasting through at least Monday when highs fall back into the 80s for the middle of next week. During this stretch the 25-75th percentile spread on potential high temperatures is a reasonable 5-8 degrees meaning while temps could end up slightly warmer or cooler than currently being forecast it is unlikely highs will only be in the lower 80s rather than lower 90s. Along with the warm temps will be heat indices near to above 100 Saturday through Monday. With this heat headlines look to be in order with Sunday being the hottest day of the stretch. Will wait until tomorrow at the earliest to issue any headlines for Saturday but it will be a proper July scorcher of a weekend regardless of any products being issued. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Other than a chance for fog within the Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota, high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Window for fog potential generally between 09Z-13Z, of which confidence is generally high enough of this potential to include at KFAR, but is liable to occur at KGFK as well. High pressure into the area will keep winds light and variable through the overnight and morning, and even into the afternoon with the exception of KDVL where winds increase to around 10kt out of the south after 16Z. Daytime cumulus after 15Z Friday is forecast to be rooted around 4-6kft again for the afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...CJ  864 FXUS65 KPIH 090407 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1007 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms - Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon for fire weather zone 427 due to thunderstorms - Drier weather returns for Thursday and beyond with hot conditions likely for the weekend. Many low elevations will reach 100 degrees by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Main impact this afternoon and evening will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is at least a slight chance everywhere but most likely spot is in the southern hills south of interstates 84 and 86. Will have much less activity on Thursday but a very slight chance remains. Will start to see the warming Thursday with highs in the 80s mountains and into the low 90s valleys. By Friday will have dry conditions with no thunderstorm threat. Low elevations will reach the mid 90s with 80s to lower 90s mountains. By Saturday and Sunday expecting many low elevations to reach 100 degrees. May see a bit of a wind increase Saturday into Sunday with some 20 to 30 mph wind gusts expected. In the long term as the upper level strong ridge pushes east a bit there is the potential some monsoonal moisture may work north on the back side of the ridge by Tuesday and next Wednesday. So there is at least the potential for some increase in moisture and showers and thunderstorms returning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 949 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers in the vicinity of KSUN will linger for another hour or so and then activity will end for the overnight hours. Isolated storms will return Thursday afternoon but remain north and south of the terminals. Probability of thunder will be less than 30 at all sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Red flag warning remains in effect for zone 427 until 8 pm with scattered thunderstorms expected. Will have at least isolated coverage all zones this evening. Expect much less thunderstorm coverage on Thursday with hot and dry conditions Saturday and Sunday. Expect a bit of a wind increase Saturday and Sunday as well and could have Red flag conditions for low humidity and wind gusts in zones 475,476, 410 and 411 mainly. In the long term could see a monsoonal moisture increase later next week mid week time frame which may increase chance of showers and thunderstorms again. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GK AVIATION...Cropp FIRE WEATHER...GK  251 FXUS65 KRIW 090412 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1012 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly taper off this evening, with most activity done by 9 PM MDT. Until then gusty outflow wind of 45 to 55 mph will remain possible. - Warming trend through the weekend with a downward trend for thunderstorm activity as drier air moves into the region. - The hottest weather of the year arrives this weekend, with many all-time record high temperatures possible. The best chance of all time record high temperatures will be Sunday afternoon. - The extremely hot and dry conditions will result in near- critical fire weather conditions for the end of this week into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 More clearing from the overnight hours than yesterday that will give way to a bit better instability from Sweetwater to Natrona Counties. Radar is starting to increase in activity off the Uintas that will eventually push into southern Sweetwater County in the next hour and expand north and east through the remainder of the afternoon. Eastern Fremont to Natrona Counties will be of concern from 1600-1800L pushing east of the CWA by 1900L. The other area of note continues to be Johnson County for later in the afternoon before sunset with storms coming in off the Bighorns from Montana. However, the instability may not be quite as high with HiRes models completely missing the early morning convection that rolled in from Yellowstone straight east into Johnson County that looks to be finally dissipating as it moves into eastern portions of the county. Main threats still will be outflow winds as per usual over 50 mph being possible. Dewpoint depressions don't look quite as good as yesterday but severe gusts always still possible, even with the green blobs out of radar range. Heat still on for the weekend into next week with NBM still pinging the widespread triple digits, stay tuned! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 I have a question for you this morning. What do these things have in common: gas pressure and volume, supply and demand and speed and travel time. If you answered inverse relationships, you would be right. And that is what we will have over the next week, as the temperature goes up, the chance of convection goes down. Today will be somewhat similar to yesterday. Another shortwave will be moving through the area. We also continue to have fairy steep low and mid level lapse rates. Instability values are also decent, with some portions of the area (mainly the northeastern portions of the area) having over 1000 J/Kg of CAPE and lifted indices as low as minus 5. There will be one difference though, and this will be a trend over the next few days. And that is that precipitable water values are a lower than yesterday, especially West of the Divide. But even East of the Divide, values are 10 to 20 percent lower. It is still around 130 percent of normal though. As a result, it will be another day anywhere from a 1 in 5 to 2 out of 5 chance of a shower or thunderstorm, with the best chance in the afternoon and evening and across northern and far southern Wyoming. The lowest chance will be across the west with less than a 1 in 10 chance. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, near to somewhat above normal. As for any stronger storms, the best chance would be over Johnson County where there is a marginal risk, with strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail the main threats. Strong wind gusts will be a threat with any shower or thunderstorm though, even further west where dew point depressions will be larger. The downward trend in convection continues on Thursday asdrier works a little further east. There will still be some convection around, but most would be confined to East of the Divide again and especially in Johnson and Natrona Counties where the deepest moisture will remain. Temperatures look largely similar to today. The inverse relationship really begins on Friday as ridging over the desert southwest begins to push northward with rising heights and temperatures aloft. This is the day when below normal precipitable waters will push across the entire area. We can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm, mainly over the northern mountains, but even here the chance is less than 1 out of 5. Temperatures will also begin to really rise, with the normally warmer spots seeing high temperatures approaching 100. It is Saturday when we really begin to throw some coal into the blast furnace, otherwise known as a death ridge. Heights across the area will climb to over 5950 meters at 500 millibars, and bring definitely the hottest weather of the year. The NBM ensemble gives a greater than 1 out of 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees in locations 5200 feet or below, with a nearly 100 percent chance in the warmer spots likely from Thermopolis up to Greybull. All locations below 6500 feet have a 4 out of 5 chance of temperatures over 90 degrees. Some records will likely fall on this day. With the dry air in place and warm temperatures aloft, the chance of convection looks just about nil. However, the heat looks to peak on Monday. This mornings guidance shows 700 millibar temperatures climbing as high as 24 degrees celsius. This combined with nearly full sunshine will lead to one of the hottest days in quite a while. Ensemble guidance shows a nearly 100 percent chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees below 5500 feet, and places like Rock Springs, Green River and even Jackson have a greater than 1 out 3 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees. When we go up to 105 degrees, ensemble guidance gives a greater than 4 out of 5 chance of this from Thermopolis to Greybull, with Riverton even having a 1 out of 2 chance. And going up even further, to 110, there is a 2 out of 5 chance a place like Greybull or Worland could reach this temperature. We could see some all time high temperatures fall on this day as the 5980 500 millibar ridge will be centered just about over Wyoming. We should begin to take a couple of degrees off of the highs on Monday as the ridge retreats to the east just a bit. However, most areas below 5500 feet will again have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures above 100 degrees. And with the ridge moving East, some moisture, mainly of the mid level variety will begin to come around the back side of the ridge. A couple of storms are possible on Monday, but chances increase more on Tuesday and into Wednesday. With the low levels remaining rather dry, these thunderstorms would produce more wind than rain though. Convection should be on the isolated side though with most locations not seeing one on any given day. Temperatures will drop somewhat from the blast furnace levels of the weekend, but look to remain above normal through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1000 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions prevail over the next 24 hours for most sites. A few isolated showers linger this evening, but these should largely end by midnight (09/0600Z). Mid-level cloud decks hang around in central Wyoming overnight into the morning hours, and by mid-morning, CPR could see some virga (light showers evaporating before they hit the ground). These could lead to some unexpected gusts from variable directions at (and above) CPR during the morning hours. During the afternoon hours, LND and RIW each have a slight chance (PROB30 groups added) of afternoon thunderstorms with erratic, gusty (35 to 45 kt) winds. Other sites have a smaller but non-zero chance of an isolated storm nearing the airport, so added BKN and OVC decks at these sites to hint at the possibility. RKS now looks to remain south of the better lift, so removed the PROB30 at that location for the 06Z set of TAFs. Any isolated storms and showers quickly end after sunset Thursday. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...VandenBoogart  520 FXUS61 KRLX 090419 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1219 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains on track and is consistent with the previous package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. 2) Drier weather coming for the beginning of the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. These upper waves mean that showers and thunderstorms become more likely outside of the favored afternoon and evening hours going forward. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for localized flash flooding. The biggest threat for flash flooding is expected Friday and Saturday. A Flash Flood Watch may eventually be needed. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will push southward Saturday into Sunday. The front will push south of the area for the beginning of the next work week, allowing for drier weather. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dense fog is possible early this morning, especially at locations receiving rainfall last afternoon and evening. Expect a cumulus deck to form by mid morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms causing restrictions this afternoon and evening. Wind and clouds Thursday night could prevent fog formation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low with fog in the western areas, otherwise medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and density of fog early this morning could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/09/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H L L M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L H H L M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M M M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M L H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M M M M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY  497 FXUS64 KEPZ 090418 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1018 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1016 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening but thunderstorm chances increase over the weekend and into early next week, especially over the lowlands. - Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-102; except highs Thursday and Friday from 100 to 104. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1016 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Flattened high pressure stays over SoCal Thursday before shifting over the Four Corners by Saturday. Thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon for the week ahead. Storms will be focused over the area mountains and locations along and west of the Rio Grande Thursday through Saturday. The high rapidly moves over the northern CONUS by Sunday allowing for Gulf moisture to push into the area Sunday and through at least midweek. This will add to the flooding threat if models continue to suggest this pattern with a big influx of tropical moisture. Winds will generally be light each day with some afternoon breezes. Temperatures will be warmer than average Thursday through Saturday with lowland high temperatures reaching to the upper 90s and low triple digits. Better moisture and rain chances will dip temperatures below the triple digit mark starting Sunday and into the work week. Highs during this time will be in the 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Storms and showers have mostly decayed and there does not look to be any more storm chances tonight for terminals. Expect light and variable winds overnight with clearing skies. Southeast breezes expected tomorrow with another round of thunderstorms with better storm coverage than what we've been seeing which could bring impacts to terminals tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The next couple of days will be the biggest fire concern with high temperatures over the lowlands into the 100-105 range and the mountains mainly in the 90s. RH's will fall into the teens with some 20s in the higher elevations. Winds will remain light though as high pressure dominates and just some gusty winds with thunderstorm outflows. The upper high starts to shift northeast this weekend into early next week which will bring in a more favorable monsoonal flow with easterly winds and daily storm chances areawide. Temperatures will be fall off to near normal by early next week and min RH's into the 20s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 102 78 103 / 0 10 20 10 Sierra Blanca 67 95 69 97 / 0 20 10 20 Las Cruces 70 100 70 102 / 0 20 20 20 Alamogordo 73 99 74 101 / 10 30 20 30 Cloudcroft 54 75 55 77 / 10 40 20 50 Truth or Consequences 71 99 72 102 / 10 20 20 10 Silver City 65 93 65 94 / 20 60 20 40 Deming 69 102 69 103 / 0 20 30 30 Lordsburg 70 100 69 100 / 0 20 30 30 West El Paso Metro 76 101 77 102 / 0 20 20 10 Dell City 69 99 71 101 / 0 20 0 10 Fort Hancock 74 102 75 103 / 0 20 10 20 Loma Linda 69 93 70 95 / 0 20 20 10 Fabens 74 102 75 103 / 0 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 72 100 73 101 / 0 10 20 20 White Sands HQ 77 101 78 102 / 0 20 20 10 Jornada Range 72 100 73 102 / 10 20 20 10 Hatch 71 103 72 105 / 10 20 20 20 Columbus 74 103 75 104 / 0 20 2030 Orogrande 70 98 72 100 / 0 20 20 10 Mayhill 58 87 60 89 / 0 60 20 50 Mescalero 57 87 59 90 / 10 30 20 30 Timberon 55 84 57 86 / 10 40 30 40 Winston 60 91 61 93 / 10 50 20 20 Hillsboro 68 97 69 99 / 10 30 20 10 Spaceport 67 99 69 102 / 10 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 59 94 59 95 / 20 70 20 40 Hurley 65 97 65 97 / 10 50 30 40 Cliff 66 99 65 100 / 10 50 20 40 Mule Creek 63 96 63 96 / 10 40 20 40 Faywood 66 95 66 97 / 10 40 20 30 Animas 70 100 69 99 / 0 30 40 40 Hachita 69 100 68 99 / 0 20 30 40 Antelope Wells 70 99 68 97 / 0 40 40 50 Cloverdale 66 93 64 91 / 0 50 60 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher  577 FXUS63 KDTX 090421 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1221 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will spread southward while increasing in coverage and intensity today and tonight. Isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards. The best chance for the marginally severe storms looks to be across the Detroit Metro Area and points south this afternoon and evening. - Dry weather with near-normal temperatures settles in for the weekend. - A heat wave is possible next week (3 consecutive days of 90+ degrees). && .AVIATION... VFR conditions across southeast Michigan early tonight with light winds out of the west-southwest. A slow moving frontal boundary will lead to increasingly lower ceilings and shower and thunderstorm chances into mid to late this morning with increasing thunderstorm chances focused mainly in the afternoon. Will include TEMPO groups given the higher likelihood of scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon, some of which could become strong to marginally severe. MBS will likely see an earlier time window for thunderstorms tomorrow with potential for morning showers prior to thunderstorm chances. D21/DTW Convection...Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon within the 17-23Z window. Most likely start time is around 19Z at DTW. Two or three total rounds of storms are possible before Friday morning. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for thunder this afternoon and/or evening. * Medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon and evening && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 DISCUSSION... Gradual height falls into tomorrow as a series of upper level disturbances track through the Great Lakes region, helping to slowly drive the cold front and moisture plume over the northern Great Lakes south. Although the 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge does weaken and becomes less organized tomorrow. Will continue to favor the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity over the north half of the CWA this evening into tomorrow morning. In line with the 12z HRRR, it looks like the bulk of activity in the late afternoon will reside over the Detroit Metro area and locations south. Bulk of model solutions still only indicating MLcapes up around 1000 J/kg with weak wind shear (25 knots or less of 0-6 KM bulk shear). NAM remains one of the more aggressive solutions, with MLcapes of 1500-2000 J/kg. With higher DCAPE values and machine learning highlighting Detroit Metro area with damaging wind threat, marginal risk still looks justified. With weak mid level lapse rates and weaker wind fields, we would expect mostly strong, sub-severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours. The cold front looks to reach the southern Michigan border by 12z Friday, and then more or less holds stationary or washes out. There is a low chance of some spotty leftover showers across south half of the CWA Friday morning, with a diurnal flareup possible in the afternoon as main 500 MB trough axis crosses Lake Michigan. A building upper level ridge (~600 DAM at 500 MB) will establish over the Northern Plains this weekend. The ridge center looks to be far enough west that the Central Great Lakes will remain on the fringe and susceptible to a shortwave or two diving southeast from Central Canada, triggering isolated-scattered showers for the second half of the weekend into Monday. The upper level ridge then looks to fold over and an extension of the west-east axis arrives for Tuesday and lingers in Wednesday. Highs in the low to mid 90s looks likely both those days, but with manageable dew pts in the low to mid 60s expected, heat indices look to fall short of 100 degrees. MARINE...Southern Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie shore look to remain relatively calm this evening through the overnight hours with a light breeze out of the southwest. Northern Lake Huron and the Saginaw Bay area have the possibility of some rain showers tonight, along with some modest wind flow veering from the south to southwest through the overnight hours. Winds can be expected to be in the 10 to 15 knot range this afternoon/evening, with gusts of 20 knots possible. Any thunderstorm threat this evening would be limited to the bay area, where locally strong wind gusts could occur. Tomorrow we expect to have a weak low pressure system trek across North Lower Michigan, bringing the chance for showers and even an isolated severe weather threat from Saginaw Bay down to the Lake Erie shore. The main threat for any thunderstorms that could develop tomorrow would be damaging wind gusts. Nonetheless Lake Huron and Saginaw bay can expect light winds veering from the southwest to the north throughout the day tomorrow, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible depending on the positioning of the low pressure tomorrow. Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie shore can expect light winds as well tomorrow veering from the southwest to the west throughout the day tomorrow. Friday onwards a high pressure system is expected to develop over the region, bringing warmer and calmer weather throughout the weekend. HYDROLOGY... A slow moving cold front settles through southern Lower Michigan Thursday and Thursday night, serving as the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area. Basin average rainfall of a quarter to half an inch is expected, with a chance of near 1 inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm coverage. The slow movement of the front could also produce more than one round of thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than 1 inch within a few hours time. Flooding potential in this scenario is still limited to minor flooding of urban and other prone areas. Scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers into Friday, mainly south of M-59, before coming to an end Friday evening. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......ZB/TF HYDROLOGY....SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  933 FXUS65 KVEF 090433 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 930 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday. High pressure will gradually build into the area over the next few days from the west. The center of the high will push across Nevada on Friday night and then move near the Four Corners on Saturday which will begin to open the door to monsoonal moisture. More on that later. In the meantime, above normal temperatures will be the rule. We will be very close to or at 110 for high temperatures in Las Vegas through Saturday. We have not hit 110 yet this year and on average we reach that level about 10 times per year. As the moisture builds into the region aloft, the chance of thunderstorms will also increase. With isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday although instability, if any will be quite limited, and then more scattered coverage on Monday. The moisture increase will mainly be in the mid and upper levels initially and that will keep the main concerns with any thunderstorms being dry lightning and strong and gusty winds. Moisture will likely be with us for much of the week and any additional details with respect to thunderstorm activity will become better resolved over the next few days. The increased moisture will however, reduce our high temperatures by several degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...SSW winds have remained elevated even after sunset in the 10-13 kt range with isolated higher gusts. Expect these conditions to persist for another hour or two before speeds finally drop to and below 10 kts for the rest of the night. Following a similar pattern on Thursday, winds shift to the SSE-S briefly mid-morning, then veer to the S-SSW during the afternoon with another round of gusts to 20-25KT expected thereafter. Hi-res guidance is picking up on a weak mid-upper disturbance moving through around 10/06z possibly resulting in a burst of stronger winds in the 06-11z timeframe. They have fairly consistent in showing this for a few runs, so have added gusts to 18kts toward the end of the TAF period late Thursday night into early Friday. VFR conditions with clear skies through the period. Expect temperatures at or above 100 degrees 17z - 03z with a high of 110 expected tomorrow. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Gusts have dropped off after sunset at most sites with KDAG being the exception as strong westerly winds persist through around midnight with gusts to 25 kts. Daily wind pattern expected again on Thursday with southerly afternoon wind gusts of 20-25 kts for most other locations while KDAG remains out of the WSW to WNW. Lower confidence at KBIH tomorrow as hi-res guidance continues to show northerly flow persisting well into the day with no switchover to a S direction. For now, keeping light northerly winds in the KBIH forecast through 21z, then transitioning to westerly by 00z as guidance suggests. Confidence is lower overall in the KBIH TAF due to the deviation from the normal diurnal wind pattern. High confidence in the forecast for all other sites. VFR conditions with no operationally significant cloud cover will continue. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Czyzyk AVIATION...Moore For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  081 FXUS64 KOHX 090438 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1138 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday - Drier conditions expected next week && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Our active pattern will continue for the next few days. With several embedded shortwaves aloft, slow moving boundaries at the surface, and a juicy airmass, the atmosphere is primed to support multiple rounds of torrential rain. This rain will be falling on saturated soils, leading to flash flooding concerns through the weekend. Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday. SPC has highlighted Middle TN as having a marginal risk (level 1/5) for damaging wind gusts Thursday and Friday, but the environment looks more supportive of gusty winds late Thursday night and into Friday. Thursday: A shortwave trough moving through the area tomorrow afternoon will be our main forcing mechanism for convection during the day. Some guidance is showing drier air upstairs, leading to inverted-V soundings and the potential for an isolated damaging wind gust. The CAMs are not in agreement on coverage tomorrow as the HRRR shows fairly minimal coverage while the NAM3k shows scattered storms. Regardless of coverage, any cell will be capable of producing gusty winds and torrential rain that could lead to flooding issues. Thursday night - Friday night: Concern for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding may continue into Thursday night as an increasingly strong southerly LLJ and shortwave trough traverse the Ohio River Valley. Guidance is not in agreement on coverage, but this could support multiple rounds of messy thunderstorm clusters moving across the area through the night and into Friday. Better shear will be available during this period, and PWATs will soar to 2-2.25"+ (greater than 90th percentile). The HRRR is showing a bowing segment to our north and west starting to fall apart by the time it reaches Middle TN late Thursday night with a second round following shortly after and continuing into Friday morning. The NAM3k, on the other hand, keeps us mostly dry through the night with the bulk of the activity staying north in KY. By the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop with greatest chances east of I-65. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Saturday - Sunday: Aloft, a positively tilted trough across the Midwest will transition from an open wave to a closed low that will reside over TN/KY through the weekend. At the surface, a west/east draped boundary will slowly drift south. These features will support additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Monday - Thursday: Our pattern will change a bit with the start of the new week as a broad upper ridge expands over much of the CONUS. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day but overall the pattern looks much drier than this week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 To the surprise of absolutely no one, more storms have developed in the warm, unstable and very humid Middle Tennessee air mass as we head into the evening. The terminals could be impacted to various degrees during the next 1 to 2 hours, but we expect the activity to really nosedive after sunset. We've included some light radiation fog at a few of the terminals for the overnight and early morning period, but winds may stay up just enough to keep it from getting too dense. Of course, we've made mention of more afternoon convective possibilities for Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 71 91 74 / 100 50 30 50 Clarksville 87 70 91 74 / 80 40 20 60 Crossville 83 65 83 67 / 80 40 60 50 Columbia 88 69 90 72 / 60 30 30 40 Cookeville 84 67 85 69 / 90 50 50 60 Jamestown 85 66 84 68 / 80 40 50 60 Lawrenceburg 86 68 88 71 / 60 30 40 30 Murfreesboro 88 70 91 72 / 80 60 50 50 Waverly 88 69 90 73 / 60 40 20 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cahill LONG TERM....Cahill AVIATION.....Rose  197 FXUS66 KMTR 090442 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 942 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Warmer weather continues through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) Seasonally cool to seasonal temperatures continue through the remainder of today before a warming trend kicks off tomorrow. Upper level high pressure will continue to strengthen over the desert southwest as we head into Thursday. Temperatures are expected to warm by 2-5 degrees across the interior with most locations reaching the mid to upper 80s. Far northern North Bay and East Bay may reach the low to mid 90s with the interior Central Coast reaching the upper 90s to low 100s. If you're looking for cooler weather, coastal areas and the bay shoreline will stay in the 60s to 70s. HeatRisk remains Minor for most of the region with patchy Moderate HeatRisk forecast across the far interior Central Coast. As temperatures start to rise again, make sure to take breaks in the shade and stay hydrated while outdoors. Diurnally breezy winds continue in the afternoon and evening with gusts between 20 to 30 mph possible in favored windy locations (Altamont Pass, Salinas Valley). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) The warming trend continues through the extended forecast period as high pressure remains in place over the desert southwest. Interior high temperatures may fluctuate a degree or two each day but will generally remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. Hot spots in the far North Bay, East Bay, and Interior Central Coast will be in the upper 90s to low 100s. Coastal areas and the bay shoreline warm up slightly but will stay in the 70s (coast) to upper 70s/low 80s (bay shoreline). By late this weekend, the center of the upper level ridge will shift slightly northeastward over the Intermountain West where it will continue to strengthen heading into next week. Temperatures look to warm further early next week with Moderate HeatRisk forecast across portions of the Bay Area and higher elevations. Conditions do not currently meet Heat Advisory criteria but this may be reevaluated as we get closer in time. Thunderstorms remain possible late this weekend into early next week as monsoonal moisture moves into California from the Gulf of California/Baja California. The moisture source remains good with PWATs in excess of 1", about 150-200% or normal for this time of year. The 700-500 mb lapse rates remain around 7 C/km which is decent. The question becomes how much instability (MUCAPE) we will have. Current models show isolated pockets of minimal MUCAPE across our region but this is by no means widespread or a substantial amount. Longer term models can sometimes struggle with instability across our region so we will be able to better assess this parameter as we move into the range of higher resolution/short term models. While we are still expecting little to no precipitation with this moisture surge, the ECMWF is showing the potential for some light rain (< 0.1") along the coast Sunday into Monday. Fire weather concerns remain if thunderstorms are able to develop with storms possible across the Bay Area and Central Coast. It is recommended to stay up to date on the forecast especially as we get into the range of higher resolution models and get a better idea of the overall setup. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 932 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The marine layer is even shallower than expected, bringing IFR and LIFR ceilings to the impacted terminals. On the other hand, the fact that it's shallow means it will struggle to navigate the terrain and probably won't reach the more inland terminals. Both ceiling and visibility should worsen throughout the night and early morning, particularly if the winds die down at the coastal terminals. There will likely be a window of clearing for most terminals Thursday afternoon, but it will only last about 6 hours or so before the marine layer stratus returns Thursday evening. Vicinity of SFO...While the marine layer is pretty shallow, it was just deep enough to spill over the peninsula rather than having to fill the Bay first. This led to the earlier ceiling (just after 00Z). Since then it has steadily lowered to high IFR at the moment, and there is no sign that trend will stop. There is a roughly 50/50 chance for LIFR conditions in the few hours around sunrise, indicated by a TEMPO line in the TAF. SFO Bridge Approach...Clouds will fill later and clear earlier than the terminal. Monterey Bay Terminals...The ceiling is already 400 feet at MRY, signaling that the ceilings will likely drop low enough to impact visibility through the morning. It looks like there will be enough wind to keep dense fog from forming, but that's not a guarantee by any means. It's doubtful MRY clears at all tomorrow, but SNS should have at least a few hours of sunshine in the afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 932 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Northwest winds remain fresh to strong as embedded near gale force gusts increase into the weekend. Wind driven moderate seas (5-8 ft) build to rough (9-11 ft) this evening into the weekend paired with a long period southerly swell. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warmer and drier conditions continue into this weekend. This increases fire weather concerns slightly as fuels are forecast to rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. The main forecast concern is the lack of instability across our region which may prevent convection from developing. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. && .BEACHES... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  253 FXUS63 KICT 090444 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon, mainly across central Kansas. - Thunderstorm chances increase tonight across primarily central Kansas and last into Thursday. Widespread severe weather is not expected, though the strongest storms may be capable of damaging winds and small hail. - Continued chances for showers and storms through the weekend, especially late overnight into the early morning hours. - Mostly seasonable temperatures through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight a flattening upper ridge over the Rockies as an MCV tracks eastward across central Kansas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed as a result of this feature and will remain possible across central Kansas this afternoon. Severe weather appears unlikely at this time. A slow-moving cold front currently draped across Nebraska will shift southward through the rest of today into the evening hours. Showers and storms are progged to develop near this boundary in the High Plains and track eastward into the forecast area later tonight on the nose of a strengthening LLJ. Locally, the best chances for storms continue to lie in central Kansas and to the north where better instability lies, though uncertainty remains regarding intensity by the time activity reaches the forecast area. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary concern with the strongest activity, though small hail and locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well. Outflow from storms tonight will drive an effective front southward into southern Kansas throughout the day on Thursday. Convergence along this boundary may result in isolated storms during the late afternoon and evening hours particularly in south central and southeast Kansas, though a solid cap aloft may hinder storm development. Additionally, an MCS coming in off the High Plains will bring more rain chances to the area, though as mentioned in the previous discussion, the track for this feature remains uncertain as some solutions carry this complex as far south as Wichita or as far north as the I-70 corridor. Damaging wind gusts will once again be the primary threats with this activity should storms manage to hold together. Rain chances will continue Friday into Saturday as the frontal zone stalls out over the forecast area. Damaging winds will continue to be the primary hazard with the strongest activity. Furthermore, additional opportunities for precipitation may return to begin next week with mid/long-range guidance highlighting northeasterly shortwaves reaching the forecast area along the bottom of the upper high. At this point, the best chances appear to reside in southern Kansas, so most of the forecast area is expected to remain dry for this period. Regarding temperatures, highs in the upper 90s are forecast across southern Kansas for Thursday before a slight cooldown into the low to mid 90s arrives Friday and lasts into the beginning of next week. Models continue to depict a strong mid/upper ridge building across the central CONUS to start next week, though as the prior discussion pointed out, this may actually build too far north for abnormally warm temperatures to be realized in our area. As such, seasonable highs near 90 continue to be forecast Monday through next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered showers/storms will continue to develop and increase in coverage for locations mainly along and east of the Kansas turnpike overnight. Some of the storms could produce briefperiods of heavy rainfall. Meanwhile a surface low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will drop southward across the region for late tonight into Thursday. This will cause the winds to switch around from the south to more of north then easterly direction in the wake of the frontal passage. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...CDJ  247 FXUS65 KPUB 090444 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1044 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday, forming over the mountains each day and moving over the plains. - Flash flooding concerns persist for the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Severe weather will be possible over the eastern plains this evening, then again Thursday and Friday. - Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, as moisture gradually increases across western Colorado starting Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 400 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Updated to add blowing dust for the San Luis Valley for the next couple of hours. Decaying thunderstorms are pushing winds 50 to 60 mph across the valley, and areas of blowing dust, mainly across eastern portions of the valley, are seeing very low visibilities, less than one mile. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Flat upper high pressure area continues to stretch from southern CA across the Four Corners into the US southern Plains. Upper shortwaves sliding across the region will kick off convective activity through this evening, and again on Thursday. Currently...A bit more convective activity across the forecast area this afternoon, with all storms slowly pushing east and are struggling to maintain any strength, at least initially. As of 1 PM, temps have warmed into the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Main plains locations will likely hit 100F later this afternoon. Tonight...Main concerns this evening will be flash flood threat across the Aspen Acres burn scar, and developing severe weather threat for the far eastern plains. Given current activity on radar, feel that the Flash Flood Watch for the AA Fire is a good thing this evening through 8 PM. Given how fresh the burn is and how hydrophobic the ground likely is, any storm crossing the area will be a concern. Much of the activity should push east of the AA Fire by 8 PM. Second, SPC had painted a large portion of the eastern plains within a Slight, and even have an Enhanced touching Kiowa County. There is some favorable CAPE for the plains tonight, but does not necessarily sync up with the best forecast bulk shear. Regardless, as storms push east late this afternoon and eve they may be able to tap into the increased llvl moisture and some favorable shear, enough for potentially some damaging wind gusts and large hail. Best time window out east looks to be now until 8 PM, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Crowley, Otero, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties. Plan on mild overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Tomorrow...Similar set-up for Thursday, though a degree or two cooler, and hi-res models are showing much more favorable CAPE and bulk shear for the plains. Therefore, with the continuing threat of greater areal coverage of storms along the eastern slopes of the eastern mts, issued another Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres Fire for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Across the east, SPC Day 2 Outlook paints much of the plains within a Slight area, and it actually looks more favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon through the eve. As for fire weather conditions, some spotty critical conditions may develop across the San Luis Valley in the afternoon, but at this time winds are a little questionable so will hold off on any highlights. Farther north for Fire Zone 220, affecting the Willow Fire, near critical fire weather conditions are forecast as well with gusty winds definitely there, and only question will be how low the RH gets in the aftn. Look for high temps in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thursday night and Friday...Plan on a mild night with moderate RH recovery, with lows in the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. Upper high starts to amplify Friday, leading to drying across UT and western CO. Long range models do show another upper disturbance dropping south across the central US plains and eastern CO, keeping storm chances in play for the CO plains Fri afternoon and evening, some of which will likely be strong to severe. Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Spotty critical fire weather conditions continue across the San Luis Valley, as well as across Lake and Chaffee counties. Saturday through Wednesday...Upper ridge migrates to the north and northeast over the weekend and into the upcoming work week, providing for lingering hot conditions for the entire area into the middle of the upcoming work week. Though the eastern plains will likely remain dry, the track of the upper high does allow for some monsoon moisture to start creeping northward into western CO starting Monday, with some isolated convection spilling over along the Continental Divide. Moore && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 KALS...VFR conditions overnight into early Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the San Luis Valley by mid afternoon and remain possible at the terminal through early evening. Gusty outflow winds near 40 kts may be possible with passing storms. KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions into early Thursday afternoon at both terminals. Thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain and move across the terminals by late afternoon into the early evening. Gusty outflow winds to near 40 kts are possible with passing cells. Thunderstorms look to move east during the evening, with VFR conditions after 03z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOZLEY  491 FXUS63 KAPX 090447 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1247 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue through the day today. Locally heavy rain the main concern. - Warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1213 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Rainfall has been a little lackluster Wednesday night, despite the abundant moisture. However, expect an uptick in activity this morning and through the afternoon, driven by a frontal boundary sagging south, increasing daytime instability, and a passing trough axis. With anomalous column moisture in place and respectable instability (especially south of M-32), thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall. Any better-organized storms that train over the same or sensitive areas could produce localized flooding. Deep-layer shear values remain relatively tame, and largely skinny CAPE profiles should limit the severe weather potential, though a robust storm or two is not out of the question due to the increasing heights aloft (>6km) and precipitation loading. Activity will wane this evening and overnight as the axis of anomalous moisture drifts south with the advancing frontal boundary. A quiet Friday is expected, with temperatures near or a few degrees below seasonal averages behind this boundary. A piece of energy or two riding the northwest flow—on the outer periphery of a building and eastward-migrating upper-level high—will swing through northern Michigan this weekend with little impact. The region will enter a warming trend, however, as heights steadily rise. Surface high pressure will build (or attempt to build) northeastward into Minnesota, bringing anomalously high heights aloft over northern Michigan. Consequently, temperatures will continue to rise early next week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Precipitation chances during this period will remain low, as long as the high pressure dominates the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mainly light showers have spread across northern Michigan this evening and will continue at times tonight. MVFR VSBYs are being observed across some locations (including MBL) and will be possible into Thursday morning. Flight conditions will continue to degrade as the environment moistens overnight, dropping CIGs to IFR/LIFR for most areas into Thursday. Additional showers and a few storms are expected into Thursday afternoon. Flight conditions look to gradually improve through the day, likely becoming VFR for all TAF sites Thursday evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...DJC  503 FXUS64 KHUN 090448 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1148 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1037 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Mainly low to medium (30-70%) for showers and thunderstorms are expect on Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Friday. Heat index values should drop into the 95 to 100 degree range Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Most of the shower and scattered thunderstorms that impacted the area earlier have pushed east into NW GA at this time. However, isolated to scattered showers continue to develop along a boundary that stretches WSW from this activity across Marshall county to just east of the Columbus, MS radar. 1500 J/KG to 3000 J/KG seem to still be in place near and south of this boundary. Earlier shower and thunderstorm activity that formed along an outflow boundary moving southeast from NW Tennessee has dissipated with the loss of daytime heating. Clear skies are currently in place across much of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Temperatures are currently in the lower 70s to around 80 degrees in most locations. Dewpoint depressions are already 1 to 5 degrees in many locations. Expect patchy to areas of fog to form quickly this evening, especially near and west of the I-65 corridor. If we see dense fog that lasts very long or is widespread in nature will depend on whether cloud cover develops and how quickly it does tonight. Based on several mesoscale models, think that we will see some patchy fog to dense fog at times this evening, before cloud cover and mixing from a trough axis aloft that moves from NW Mississippi over the area. This should break up cloud cover and develops some shower and scattered thunderstorms development over the area after 2 or 3 AM. It is not out of the question we will need a Dense Fog Advisory for a portion of the area between now and 1 or 2 AM, before cloud cover develops and stronger forcing moves more directly over the area. However, confidence is still low at this time one will be needed. Little shear is shown as the trough axis moves into NW Alabama overnight into the daybreak hours on Thursday. However, based on current SBCAPE seen in analysis, think some instability will still be available to tap into. So, maintained a low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly producing heavy downpours and frequent lightning towards daybreak on Thursday. This activity will likely push east and just south of the area after 1 PM. However, a low to medium (30-50%) of scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the afternoon hours on Thursday. Again, instability looks too meager for any severe microbursts, but heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will be the main threats. It is expected to be cooler on Thursday with highs only in the mid 80s to around 91 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect activity to dissipate sooner Thursday evening. However, another shortwave looks to push ESE through flow aloft overnight producing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to push into southern middle Tennessee and northeastern Alabama through daybreak on Friday. Low temperatures with cloud cover and a focusing mechanism for low level moisture will likely only dropinto the lower 70s. The surface boundary associated with this upper level disturbance seems to linger over northern Alabama during the day on Friday. This would likely keep fairly high chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast(40-80%) into the early afternoon hours on Friday, before decreasing from west to east. SBCAPE climbs higher to between 2000 and 4000 J/KG in most guidance. Between the better instability, lift, and some soundings showing theta E difference values increasing again to around 30 again, severe microbursts seem possible. Again the early arrival of precipitation around daybreak and continued development in the afternoon will keep highs in the mid 80s to around 91 degrees. Models seem to be set on this pattern of another shortwave moving southeast into northern AL and NE Tennessee late Friday night into very early Saturday morning as well. This should be ample ingredients for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Temperatures when you wake up should again be in the lower 70s. A medium to high (30-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected during this period. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours will be the main threats with any thunderstorms through daybreak on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 We will remain in a humid, tropical airmass through Saturday as zonal flow aloft is challenged by broad upper troughing over the northeast Atlantic. An increase in PVE with the warm humid airmass in place ahead will result in medium to high (70-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday peaking during diurnal heating hours of the afternoon. With PWAT values between 1.8-2", localized flooding could occur across areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain. As high pressure expands across the Great Lakes, a frontal boundary will shift southward on Sunday and should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity. Temperatures behind this feature will top out in the mid to upper 80s from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with cooler overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The good news is that this will keep the HeatRisk in the Minor (level 1) category which highlights the risk for heat related illness in those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will not be as dangerous overall compared to what we have experienced lately. Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the long term forecast but will primarily be diurnally driven with a very low risk for any severe storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Clear skies are still in place at both terminals with dewpoint depressions at zero degrees. Given that clear skies and calm winds will likely continue for a few more hours, included MVFR VSBY reductions as both terminals due to fog development (06Z to 08Z at KMSL and 06Z to 10Z at KHSV). Expect -SHRA and -TSRA to develop over both terminals (~ 8Z at KMSL and ~10Z at KHSV). This should keep dense fog from forming, but keep MVFR VSBYS in place at both terminals at times through 12Z at KMSL and 14Z at KHSV. Expect MVFR CIGS to develop around 13Z at KMSL and 15Z at KHSV. A prob30 for TSRA and MVFR VSBYS was included at both terminals later in the afternoon hours. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...KTW  537 FXUS64 KTSA 090449 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday with large area of heat advisory conditions. - Isolated to widely scattered storms Thursday through Friday generally along and north of Interstate 40. - Storm chances trend higher late Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals with the increase in daily rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Low level jet has intensified with early signs of high based convection developing near the OK / KS border region. This convection is expected to expand and spread east through Thursday morning before diminishing by early afternoon. While early day cloud cover and/out outflow may temporarily slow the daily warm up, the veered low level flow and placement of the low level thermal ridge favors temps still reaching the warmest levels of the week area wide by afternoon. Dewpoints were vastly under forecast on Wednesday, and while they are likely to be some lower on Thursday, the forecast will favor the higher value scenarios with the resultant heat index values supportive of a broad region heat advisory. Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible Thursday afternoon into the evening and somewhat stronger flow aloft would support a severe risk primarily due to downburst winds. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Convection may again expand north of the local forecast area Thursday night however confidence is low in how far south these storms would spread into the day Friday. Forecasts will retain low chances generally north of Interstate 40. The slow moving cold front will struggle to make southward advance into the region, however the upper ridge will continue to amplify across the western states and waves passing on the ridge periphery will aid in eventually pushing the boundary into the region late Friday or during the day Saturday. This boundary will then act as a favored corridor for daily shower and storm chances through the weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with deep moisture and slower storm motions. The upper ridge will intensify as it re-centers over the central and northern Plains by early next week with its influence gradually expanding southward into the local area. Lower daily rain chances and warmer temps are forecast by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated to widely scattered convection ongoing this evening across wrn AR, but probability of impacting any site too low to mention in forecasts. Low level jet develops late tonight, which will result in LLWS all sites for a few hours. High-based SHRA and isolated TSRA possible across nern OK and nwrn AR late tonight into Thursday morning, but again probability of impacts at any one terminal too low to mention at this time. South to southwest wind becomes gusty mid morning through the end of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 98 79 97 / 20 20 20 20 FSM 77 98 78 98 / 10 10 10 20 MLC 79 97 80 96 / 10 10 10 10 BVO 75 97 76 95 / 30 30 20 20 FYV 72 93 76 93 / 10 20 20 20 BYV 73 94 75 91 / 10 20 20 20 MKO 78 96 78 96 / 10 20 20 20 MIO 75 93 76 93 / 20 30 30 20 F10 77 97 79 97 / 10 20 10 10 HHW 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053-055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ119-120-129- 219-220-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...69  624 FXUS61 KBOX 090452 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1252 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Rip Current Statement is in effect through this evening for eastern and ocean facing beaches in Massachusetts. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 pm this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Becoming warmer with increasing humidity through the end of the work week. - Warm, humid weather returns late in the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days but better chances looking to be on Friday. - Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Becoming warmer with increasing humidity through the end of the work week. High pressure and mostly clear skies continue through most of Thursday. 925mb temperatures rising to near 20C and plenty of sunshine will allow for surface temperatures to begin to creep up above seasonable norms... likely near 90 across most of southern New England by Thursday. Humidity will begin to increase under broad WSW flow, with dewpoints increasing to near or just above 70 (at times) Thursday. A cold front moving through Thursday evening could bring chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the night/overnight, but the highest risk currently remains in western MA. A Rip Current Statement has also been issued through this evening for eastern MA, primarily for ocean facing beaches, due to prolonged northeasterly flow and 5+ ft seas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered thunderstorms along a cold front Friday afternoon to early evening. Although severe weather potential looks minimal at this time, lightning and torrential downpours are the main risks. Warm and humid weather continues into Friday to go along with partly to mostly cloudy skies. A cold front will be gradually sagging southward from northern New England during the early afternoon in northern MA and reaching the southern CT-RI-MA coastline by early evening. This will pose a better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop than compared to Thursday. The biggest uncertainties specific to the thunderstorm forecast are the degree of instability we can muster and how quickly will the front progress offshore. Both the 12z NAM and 12z GFS capture the instability envelope well, with the NAM's CAPE values around 1500- 2500 J/kg due to its high-dewpoint bias, while the GFS's overmixing bias shows considerably lower values at around 500 J/kg or less. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle; shear values are also on the lower side at around 30 kt, which should mitigate or limit any organized severe weather potential outside of water-loaded downdrafts. The main risks looks to be lightning and slow-moving heavy downpours, which could lead to instances of street flooding in areas that see repeated thunderstorms. Latest guidance indicates 700- 500 mb heights which become increasingly parallel to the southward- sagging frontal boundary, which adds to the risk for slower- moving storms and also casts some uncertainty when we clear out, with the Canadian guidance suggesting post-frontal light rains lingering into part of Saturday along the South Coast. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend into early next week. Even if the cold front from Friday night takes a little bit longer to fully clear out from the South Coast, we should be trending drier by Saturday late morning. The 500 mb pattern then transitions to one of cyclonic flow/troughing in the mean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to mid 80s) and lower humidity levels than experienced for late in the week. Weekend appears favorable for outdoor plans with nice summer weather. We'll be on the far western periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge which latest guidance still shows reaching to nearly 600 dm building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We still might need to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the ridge but it looks as though the weekend into early next week ends up drier than not. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Rest of tonight...High confidence. VFR. Light and variable winds becoming southwest. Perhaps a few patches of Fog mainly along the south coast. Thursday...Moderate confidence. VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible after 20Z across the western terminals. Thursday night...Moderate confidence. Lowering clouds moving in with areas of MVFR and possibly IFR. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Friday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Morning...High confidence. SCA conditions continue in the the coastal waters through this evening with NE wind gusts around 25 kts. Conditions improve overnight into Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. A weak front approaches the region later Thursday with showers and thunderstorms possible over the southern waters. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/McMinn AVIATION...FT MARINE...Loconto/McMinn  612 FXUS62 KRAH 090452 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1252 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Updated aviation discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 125 PM Wednesday... 1) Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain; both hazards are of less concern on Thursday. 2) Chances for diurnally driven convection each day through the weekend, before drying out early-mid next week. Continued warm Fri and Sat, with near to below normal temperatures Sun and Mon. && .DISCUSSION... As of 125 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered storms area-wide this afternoon, with dangerously high heat indices across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain; both hazards are of less concern on Thursday. A stationary front has moved very little over the last six hours and is noticeable on visible satellite, extending from northwest to southeast in the vicinity of VUJ, SOP, and FAY. It is just north of this boundary that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, with the threat coming from damaging wind gusts. While the wind shear is negligible, the continued hot and humid conditions have allowed for MLCAPE values between 2000 and 3000 J/kg and DCAPE values as high as 1000 J/kg across the southwest. Peak thunderstorm coverage is likely from 5-8pm this evening. In addition, a heat advisory remains in effect south of the Triangle for heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees this afternoon. The coverage of thunderstorms should be less on Thursday, with the bulk of the thunderstorms expected to remain north and west of the forecast area. In addition, while high temperatures will be nearly the same between today and tomorrow, slightly drier air moving into the region Thursday should result in lower humidity and drop heat index values below advisory criteria. KEY MESSAGE 2... Chances for diurnally driven convection each day through the weekend, before drying out early-mid next week. Continued warm Fri and Sat, with near to below normal temperatures Sun and Mon. Aloft, a broad upper trough will sit over the region as a s/w progresses esewd across the Plains and into the MS Valley Fri/Fri night. The s/w will help amplify the trough as it continues esewd across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic over the weekend. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level anticyclone will strengthen over the Desert Southwest Fri/Sat, then lift nwd across the Rockies and ewd over the nrn/cntl Plains Sat night through Sun night. The trough will get pushed south and east next week as the high builds across the nrn/n- cntl CONUS. At the surface, a trough will remain in place over the area through Sat. A backdoor cold front should push swd-sswwd across the area Sun/Mon, while an area of low pressure develops off the Southeast US coast. The ridge may remain over the area as the low lifts newd along and off the East Coast Tue/Wed, but details are less clear that far out. Expect the greatest chances and coverage of convective activity Sat and Sun. As for temperatures, the warmest day should be Fri, with highs ranging from low 90s NW to upper 90s SE. Sun and Mon should be the (relatively) coolest days, with highs ranging from low-mid 80s N and NW to upper 80s/around 90 degrees S and SE. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1252 AM Thursday... Precip has ended across the area with only a few high clouds remaining. However we are already seeing some IFR stratus making its way into the northern Coastal Plain and RWI is likely to see at least a few hours of IFR cigs through daybreak. Lesser confidence in these cigs making it into RDU so I will keep them VFR for now. Since Wednesday's precip was less widespread than previous days, fog should also be less widespread. Some isolated pockets of MVFR vsbys may develop late tonight but not confident enough to include in the 06Z TAFS. Looking at Thursday afternoon, drier air moving into the area should yield an overall decrease in precip chances area-wide. Some western Piedmont convection is possible and could drift into the Triad sites after 20Z but this morning's 00Z guidance keeps things dry elsewhere. Outlook: Brief restrictions will be possible again on Friday, especially in the west as another round of afternoon thunderstorms may form. A better chance for more widespread rain and the associated restrictions will be on Saturday and Sunday as a cold front approaches and moves through the region. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/10 AVIATION...Leins/LH  682 FXUS63 KEAX 090454 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1154 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Updated 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms Expected Overnight; Heavy Rainfall Possible - Conditional Severe Threat Thursday Afternoon; Activity May Push Further Eastward - Near Triple Digit Heat Index Values Interstate 70 and South Thursday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/ ... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 H5 short-wave trough is moving out of the eastern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Stronger surface cyclone is present over western Kansas. This will be slow to move as it is largely disconnected from any mid-level steering flow. This has setup a warm front that as of late Wednesday evening is currently stalled over eastern Kansas. Convection over the past several hours has resulted in a differential heating boundary from the Upper Midwest into the Sandhills of Nebraska, and has been able to develop some new convection heading into the overnight hours. Complicating the mesoscale view though are numerous outflow boundaries that have developed under the area upper-level divergence. Broad large-scale ascent should continue to occur as this short-wave trough move overs head, and shower/storm activity should continue overnight and through much of the morning. While there is decent CAPE ahead of these showers/storms moving in, the weaker mid-level flow away from the axis of the short-wave trough, keeping deep layer shear low, has struggled to sustain strong updrafts for an extended period of time, with most storms becoming outflow dominant in fairly short order. A few stronger cores may be possible overnight with any remaining pockets of higher CAPE, and perhaps a few isolated wind gusts around 60 MPH and or quarter-size hail may be possible with a few storms. Most of this activity will push eastward out of the forecast area before 18z. Depending on how organized activity remains, PWAT values near 2.0 inches along with deep warm-cloud processes, efficient rainfall may result in localized rainfall amounts between 1.5 and 2.0 inches, and therefore may present some hydrologic issues, including the KC metro. Redevelopment east of Interstate 35 is possible later into the afternoon and evening, depending on where the boundary ends up. If outflow boundary production from overnight convection lingers, this may greatly alter the mesoscale environment heading into the afternoon. We may see more mid-level short-wave activity in the afternoon which could increase lift across much of the area again. However, the stronger vort maxima may move further eastward out of the area before there is sufficient time for the boundary layer to destabilize. And depending on where subsequent mid-level short-wave travel, may have localized pockets of deep layer shear to help organize convection. But if cloud-cover lingers into the middle of the afternoon across the area, this may push convection initiation further eastward or may require new activity to travel further before encountering a higher CAPE environment to strengthen. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ ... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday - Sunday... Ridging will begin to build over the western Plains on Friday. Remnant troughing to slowly push eastward Friday into Saturday. A stalled frontal boundary will remain parked over the region during this time. Southerly flow south of the front will continue to pump moisture into the region as PWATs will remain in the 1.5-1.75 inches range. This moisture and lifting mechanisms will keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast for Friday through most of Sunday. Over the southern half of the forecast area (south of the stalled front), we willsee SBCAPE increase, which will allow for a small chance for strong storms. Main hazard with this will be gusty to damaging winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall. During this time, we will see highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Monday - Mid Next Week... By next week, impressive ridging will build over the central CONUS and high pressure will strengthen at the surface. These features will allow for conditions to dry out and for temperatures to increase a bit each day. Temperatures are likely to top out in the low to mid 90s mid next week. Though, dew points will remain in the mid 60s, which will keep heat indices in the upper 90s. Winds will remain light through this timeframe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers and storms will roll in across the area overnight. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings or visibility will be possible while these move through. Activity should push eastward after 18z this afternoon. Redevelopment of storms is possible late this afternoon for portions of central Missouri. Conditions should be VFR outside of periods of precipitation. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Krull LONG TERM...Wilson AVIATION...Krull  696 FXUS65 KSLC 090455 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1054 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... - High based convection will again develop this afternoon, primarily over northern portions of the forecast area. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong outflow winds to 60 mph. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening. Critical fire weather conditions will continue Thursday over southern Utah. - A notable heat wave will develop over the weekend with high temperatures challenging daily and monthly records Saturday and Sunday. Most valleys and some mountain valleys have a greater than 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red (major) range, bringing an increased chance of heat related illnesses. - Confidence is increasing the monsoonal moisture will move into the area by the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... High pressure is centered roughly near the Utah/Colorado border late this morning, putting Utah and southwest Wyoning under a breezy west to southwest flow aloft. High based moisture remains in place over northern Utah, while drier air advects in from the southwest. High temperatures will stay on the mild side with maxes running up to 5F above seasonal normals. A weak shortwave is expected to move through the ridge and across northern portions of the forecast area late this afternoon into the evening, with the feature looking a bit better defined than the one that moved through yesterday. Overall, seeing less in the way of shear compared to yesterday, but a bit more CAPE, up to 500 J/kg most likely. Thus, already starting to see showers and thunderstorms developing, currently focused over northwest Utah, with areal coverage and extent both increase late this afternoon into the evening. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong and gusty outflow winds, with the possibility of at least isolated severe gusts later today. The ridge axis is expected to redevelop off the southern California coast on Thursday, bringing a more westerly component to the flow and allowing additional drier air to make its way into the area, particularly over southern Utah. With some moisture continuing to linger and another shortwave on track to move through during the afternoon, anticipate the development of at least a few showers and thunderstorms, though coverage will likely be a bit less than what is anticipated for today. As the airmass continues to dry and strong high pressure builds substantially over the western United States, confidence is high in temperatures across Utah and southwest Wyoming shooting up to record challenging levels for Saturday and Sunday. Guidance continues to show the center of the ridge over Utah on Saturday and just east of the area on Sunday. Guidance has, if anything, gone up with regard to the forecast compared to yesterday, with the majority of valleys and mountain valleys showing at least a 60 percent chance of red (major) HeatRisk for both Saturday and Sunday. It seems all but certain that daily temperature records will be broken, with some monthly and (in the case of the Cache Valley) all time records forecast to be broken. Given this and many valley low temperatures staying in the 70s overnight, this will predictably bring a quite increased chance of heat related illnesses over the weekend. Given the high confidence in the forecast, have gone ahead and issued an Extreme Heat Watch for all of those areas with at least a 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red, which includes just about all valleys (lower Washington county excluded) and many mountain valleys. As the forecast comes in clearer focus over the next couple of days, upcoming shifts will make decisions about advisories and warnings. With southerly flow expected to increase over the area for the early and middle part of the upcoming week, models continue to indicate a high likelihood of monsoonal moisture returning to the area, bringing temperatures down and rain chances up. While this would decrease the fire danger, it brings an increased potential for flash flooding, particularly for southern Utah. && .AVIATION... KSLC...Scattered showers are forecast to persist at the KSLC terminal through 09z before drying out. Another round of thunderstorms may occur during the hours of 21-02z tomorrow, though confidence remains uncertain at this time regarding coverage. Northwest wind shift is expected to occur around 17z with drainage southerlies returning around 04z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers with occasional thunder will persist through around 09z across northern UT and southwest WY before drying out. Generally diurnal wind shifts are expected across all sites through the TAF period. Additionally, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists across most northern UT and southwest WY sites tomorrow afternoon from roughly 20-02z. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 323 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... The airmass has trended drier today under a west- southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts west off the northern Baja coast. Meanwhile, across northern Utah,lingering moisture and instability has brought high-based showers and thunderstorms that will continue into the evening, with isolated dry lightning and gusty outflow winds being the main threat. Enhanced winds combined with the low humidities have brought critical fire weather conditions across portions of central and southern Utah today. The drying trend will continue across the area through the rest of the week, with humidities continuing to trend downward across the area and overnight recoveries become increasingly poor especially across central and southern Utah. Convection will become increasingly isolated during this time as well. Breezy conditions are expected to persist into Thursday and perhaps Friday as relative humidities continue to decrease. For now, have extended the Red Flag Warning for southern Utah into Thursday, and will keep an eye on trends for Friday. As high pressure builds back into the area for the weekend into the beginning of next week, dry and very hot conditions can be expected. Temperatures are very likely to reach at least 100 degrees in most valleys over the weekend, while relative humidities in the single digits will be common. However, the pattern still looks favorable for moisture to increase into the area beginning early next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ101>108-114>116-118>122-128>131. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ495-496-498. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  787 FXUS65 KGJT 090457 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1057 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will shift northward tomorrow with areas north of highway 50 favored. - Localized critical fire weather conditions favor southeast UT and southwest CO tomorrow afternoon. - Excessive heat watch has been issued for Saturday and Sunday afternoon for near record temperatures in the lower valleys of eastern Utah and western Colorado. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1056 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure building over the Desert Southwest will move/build to the northeast over eastern Utah and Western Colorado by Sunday and expand east over the Plains going into next week. An upper level shortwave with a weak jet streak supporting it is moving across the region tonight is keeping isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms going mostly to the north of I-70, but there are a few moving through the central areas. These storms aren't producing much in the way of precip, but can kick out some gusts of 40-50 mph. Look for these storms to diminish through the overnight into the morning, but will redevelop around noon with diurnal heating. There will be few storms tomorrow than we had today and they will stay mostly to the north and will be ending by early evening due to subsidence under the high pressure pushing up from the southwest. With the high pressure moving into the region, near normal temperatures across the region tomorrow will warm to about five degrees above normal Friday, ten degrees above normal Saturday, and near record 15 degrees above normal Sunday. With high pressure over the region, the hot dry conditions will continue, but winds will be light to non existent bringing an end to the critical fire weather conditions. The high pressure does seem to pull moisture around it up into the Great Basin with models indicating a little moisture may be able to slip into the region under the high. This would generate afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but it too early to say how much moisture will make it into the region. Stay tuned for updates. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 534 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through 06Z. The main impacts will be gusty outflow winds as strong as 35 kts, but minimal to no impacts to vis are expected and cigs should stay above ILS breakpoints. Winds calm overnight before breezy conditions with gusts up to 25 kts re-establish tomorrow afternoon beginning around 18-21Z. VFR conditions are expected to persist at all terminals throughout the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ001-002-005>008-011-014-020>023. UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ022-024-027-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...DB AVIATION...TGJT  878 FXUS63 KARX 090459 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storm are possible this afternoon, mainly east of the Mississippi River. - Cooler weather to end the week with highs staying in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Warmer weather returns this weekend and continues next week as highs get in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today: Fog Early this Morning, Scattered Showers and Storms This Afternoon With the rain that fell and the subsidence behind the front that moved through, foggy conditions may occur early this morning. If skies clear out a little more then their could also be localized areas of dense fog in some locations. Northwest flow aloft along with soundings suggesting around 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support scattered showers and storms this afternoon. With weak shear in place for this afternoon, these storms will struggle to get going. East of the Mississippi River has the best chance at seeing a shower or storm. The main threat with these storms that can get going and stay organized a for a period of time would be very localized rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5" due to slower storm motion. Friday-Next Week: Cooler End to the Week with Warmer and Drier Conditions Next Week Beginning on Friday, a ridge builds into the Upper Midwest. This will limit any rainfall chances for much of next week. Temperatures get into the upper 80s to low 90s across the CWA with the warmest temperatures west of the Mississippi River. At the surface the region will be just to the east of the high pressure center which could temper our temperatures compared to the High Plains where they will be in good southerly flow and west of the high pressure center. Confidence is high on the ridge staying overhead through midweek. Afterwards is where the uncertainty begins. Ensembles and deterministic guidance show the ridge breaking down at some point and bringing the storm path more in line with the Upper Midwest, however the main difference is when this occurs. The longer the ridge stays amplified and over our area, the less likely we see convection in our region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A cold front will move through southeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin between now and 11 pm. Once this occurs, the threat for severe weather and flooding will end. Areas of fog will be found overnight. This will produce areas of IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities through 09.14z. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 After a swath of 3 to 5" fell in portions of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa and a more localized area of 5 to 7" across southern Mower County, the Cedar River is pronged to be above flood stage over the next few days as the runoff fills into the River. Little to no more rain is expected over the next few days. The lone exception is this afternoon as scattered showers and storms are possible. There is a localized possibility of 0.5 to 1.5" occurring where a storm occurs. East of the Mississippi River has the best chance at seeing a shower or storm. Given the slow storm motions, these storms could linger over a given location. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Boyne HYDROLOGY...Cecava