889 FXUS63 KBIS 090500 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. - A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the week, with very hot daily high temperatures around 95 to 105 forecast this weekend through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Quiet across western and central ND tonight. Convection over northeast Montana could sneak into the far west towards morning. Ongoing convection over southeast Montana into northwest South Dakota should remain just south of southwest North Dakota. No changes planned at this time. UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No major adjustments to the forecast were necessary at the time of this mid evening update. Calm and dry weather persists across western and central North Dakota. Upstream of the forecast area, thunderstorms continue to develop along a pseudostationary cold front over southeastern Montana. CAMs continue to advertise these storms remaining out of our area until late tonight, when the front is expected picked up and pushed west by a surface low dropping out of southern Minnesota. By this time, they can be expected to be mainly be showers with some more isolated rumbles of thunder. UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update. Earlier showers across portions of the northwest and north central have dissipated. Have tweaked sky grids this evening, but otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently quasi-zonal flow is over the Northern Plains and northern Rockies. At the surface, a high pressure is in far southern Canada, influencing the Dakotas and eastern Montana. Around the high is a stationary front from central Montana to Nebraska, and back up to Minnesota. A very slight wave in the zonal flow has created light rain showers in northern North Dakota today. Thursday another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the evening. All of western and central North Dakota is in a level 1 risk, with a smaller area through the middle part of the state of a level 2 risk. A weak surface low pressure will move east across the International Border in the western half of the state. With at least 35 knots of shear, and the shear vector perpendicular to that stationary front, isolated super cells are possible in western and central North Dakota. With ample surface heating and moisture advecting into the state, the middle third of the state was upgraded to a level 2 risk. This moisture advection will create pockets of 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The current forecast for hazards are hail size is up to 2 inches and 60mph wind gusts. Convection will likely start discrete before becoming clusters as outflow boundaries collide through the event. Timing and location are unfortunately low confidence as the various CAMs have differences. The general consensus for a start time is in between 21 and 00z in western ND, and moving southeast, exiting our area by 10z. Looking ahead to this very hot weekend, a large upper level high will strengthen over the Desert Southwest. This will create a ridge over the Northern Plains, allowing that clockwise moving high to push the hot air northward at the 850mb level. The current deterministic NBM temperature forecast continue to show lower triple digits for western and parts of central ND Sunday and Monday, but overall the extreme heat will last from Friday through at least Tuesday. One thing to note for Sunday and Monday, is that the deterministic temperatures have been the 75th percentile of the NBM, meaning there is likely a warm bias occurring and actual temperatures won't be as high. This morning's run, already has come down closer to the 50th percentile, although that is still in the triple digits. Like every very warm day in the state, there will be a strong south wind, with gust up to 30mph through the weekend. The large upper high will slowly roll to the northeast and end up centered on the Central Plains by Monday. An Alberta Clipper moving through Minnesota will then squish the high back to the west. This will squeeze the very warm temperatures down to the South Dakota border, while the rest of the state drops to the 80s or low 90s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mostly VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period. Light southerly winds expected tonight and into Thursday morning. Southerly flow then increases to 10 to 20 mph over central ND Thursday afternoon and turns westerly over western ND. Winds then become light after 00Z Friday across the forecast area. Convection could push into western ND towards morning, but strong to severe storms are not anticipated with this activity. Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening across western and central ND. Any of these storms will contain gusty and erratic winds and hail, as well as the potential for MVFR ceiling and visibilities with any heavy downpours. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...TWH  946 FXUS64 KLUB 090500 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Daily thunderstorm chances expected Thursday through Tuesday of next week with the greatest potential Saturday and Sunday. - Hot temperatures prevail through Saturday before a slight cool down expected early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current radar imager shows a weak outflow boundary just entering northwest Parmer County. This outflow will bring some breezy winds around 25 to 30 mph to northwestern zones. However, the boundary seems to be weakening quickly. Therefore, this boundary is not expected to make it very far through the forecast area. Small, short- lived showers have been developing along the boundary as it moved across eastern NM. However, in it's weakened state, chances for this will be low. Otherwise, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 70s to lower 80s across southern Rolling Plains. Thursday will be hot with slight thunderstorm chances across the southern Texas Panhandle. Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging dominating southwestern CONUS including much of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. The upper ridging is expected to gradually retreat west through the day, however the edge will still clip our CWA bringing northwesterly flow aloft. Thickness increases due to the upper ridging will warm temperatures a couple degrees with highs in the upper 90s on the Caprock to just below Heat Advisory level off the Caprock. Surface winds will start off the day from the southwest through the early afternoon before shifting to the southeast later in the day. A very similar thunderstorm set up as today is expected Thursday evening. Southeasterly surface upslope flow will result in thunderstorms developing across higher terrain in eastern NM. Northwesterly flow aloft will help in the storms tracking southeast to our forecast area. Models have see-sawed with how far these storms make it into our forecast area the past couple of forecasts. The greatest chances will be across the far southern Texas Panhandle, however cannot rule out these storms leaking into the northern South Plains. Severe storm potential is low with these storms. At most we will see rain showers with some breezy winds. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday will be a rinse and repeat of Thursday with hot temperatures and thunderstorm chances across northwestern zones of the CWA. Upper ridging will continue to dominate across southwestern CONUS as a broad upper trough begins to develop across eastern CONUS. With the forecast area sitting between the two upper disturbances, northwesterly flow will prevail aloft. Southeasterly surface flow will result in thunderstorms developing across higher terrain in eastern NM once again. Northwesterly upper flow will give the push these storms need to track southeast into our CWA. Thunderstorms are expected across the far southern Texas Panhandle with a low chance of expanding into the northern South Plains. Severe potential is low with these storms, however could see some gusty winds and outflows. Hot temperatures with highs in the 90s to triple digits continue Friday and Saturday. We will see a slight cool down beginning Sunday that is expected to continue through at least mid-week. Multiple upper shortwaves passing everyday will continue daily thunderstorm chances. Models indicate a weak front will approach the forecast area early next week possibly pushing the moist air to the south of theCWA effectively cutting short the daily thunderstorm chances. The current NBM keeps precipitation chances through Tuesday, however could see changes to future forecasts as the NBM catches up to the progression of the weak front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR and breezy southerly winds will continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...19  078 FXUS63 KDMX 090502 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1202 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight, with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. - Heavy rainfall is possible with storms tonight, with a slight uptrend in precip totals. - High pressure is expected to set up over the central U.S. this weekend into next week, bringing much warmer temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently, showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across southern Minnesota along a boundary which is expected to push south/southeast through the afternoon and evening. This forecast gets tricky because there are two areas where convection is expected. The first is along the aforementioned boundary across southern MN, and the other is along an area of deep moisture convergence across western Iowa/eastern Nebraska. Other than potential forcing mechanisms, the environment is more or less the same for each area. Shear is somewhat lacking for widespread severe weather, with 0-6km values between 25kts on the low end and 45kts on the high end depending on the model. The most favorable areas for shear are across far northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, with another somewhat favorable area in western Iowa. The primary hazards with storms today are damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. As for the damaging winds, soundings have the inverted-V shape to them with T/Td spreads at the surface of nearly 20 degrees. D-CAPE values are between 1000 and 1500 J/kg across much of Iowa and guidance shows wind gusts of between 60 and 70mph through the evening. Some potential uncertainty exists with how long storms would remain severe. Weaker shear values may lead to cold pools outrunning storm clusters which leads to a shorter and less widespread severe window. Should this be the case, after thunderstorms mature redevelopment could occur between the outflow boundary and the main cluster. New updrafts in this in between zone would lower the severe wind threat later this evening. As for heavy rain, PWAT values still remain in the neighborhood of 2". Storms are expected to be somewhat slow-moving today, between 25 and 30mph. Rainfall totals have been trending upward slightly. REFS and HREF values for the 90th percentile are still between 2 and 3 inches in areas of western and northern Iowa. Both are also hinting at a signal for isolated instances of 3-4" or more of rainfall. Mean values from the HREF and REFS are between 1 and 2 inches. Of note, the axis of heaviest rainfall is still being progged away from areas that received heavy rainfall this past weekend. With regards to the hail and tornado threat for tonight, both are low and very conditional. Hail is a balancing act between high CAPE values (2000-3000 J/kg) and decent lapse rates (7+ C/km) will be fighting a very high melting level and weak shear. The tornado threat is much more conditional and will be very short lived. Overall SRH values are very low across much of the area, and a brief spin-up along the boundary with storm initiation is possible, in addition to a few funnel clouds due to enhanced stretching, although both cases have a low chance of happening. Overnight, as the cluster to the west grows it is expected to dive south and ride the CAPE gradient. For the most part, this cluster will be limited in its northern and eastern extent through the evening. Some guidance suggests that after sunset, instability is lost and storms across central Iowa aren't able to sustain themselves, limiting the spatial coverage to west-central and southwestern Iowa. The Low Level Jet is expected to kick in sometime around midnight, although it doesn't look like it will have a large impact on any activity this far north. If the LLJ can nose further into Iowa, this would help increase storm coverage into central and south-central Iowa as the cluster moves to the southeast. Tomorrow will be warm, humid, and largely dry through the day. Highs around the state will range from the mid 80s to potentially the low 90s. Compared to previous forecasts, the LLJ is progged to kick in farther south across Missouri. With the LLJ coming in farther south, some showers and thunderstorms may graze far southern Iowa tomorrow night as opposed to being more widespread across southern Iowa. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another 500mb shortwave is progged to pass over Iowa Friday before a high sets up this weekend pancakes much of the central U.S. Monday. Once the high sets up, an increase in temperatures is expected with highs making a run for the 90s through the early part of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorms continue to move across portions of central Iowa early in the period. Gusty winds are possible in vicinity of storms along with MVFR cigs. MVFR to potentially IFR cigs are expected to develop over northern Iowa overnight and that may expand south to KDSM. Fog could occur near KMCW but at this time, expect stratus to prevail over fog. Conditions will gradually improve with cigs rising with diurnal heating and eventual clearing. KOTM could have a few showers and storms on Thu but potential is low enough to not include at this time. Mainly light wind except for any potential outflow induced winds near storms. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Area rivers and streams that peaked earlier this week after the heavy rain late last week into the weekend continue to recede but many in the Cedar and Des Moines basins remain elevated, some close to action stage. 3 hour flash flood guidance in much of northern to central Iowa is only 2-2.5" with much higher amounts in western and southern Iowa. This is largely due to the footprint of where the heavy rain has occurred most recently. Similarly, NASA SPoRT 10 cm soil moisture remains elevated near the Hwy 20-Hwy 30 corridors. Some inconsistencies remain in models on how widespread storms will be through portions of central Iowa with greater confidence in the far north/northeast and in the west/southwest. Despite this, it may not take much rain to renew flooding in locations that have recently experienced flooding so issued a Flood Watch for those areas, and in locations in northeast Iowa where model QPF is highest with HREF PMM data suggesting 2-3", localized 4". These QPF totals are also seen in portions of western Iowa, but as previously noted, flash flood guidance is much higher in these areas. In terms of the environment, Pwats top out around 2" near and along the boundary as it moves southward through the night. These are combined with more than sufficient warm cloud depths. Storm motions aren't overly slow, but repeated rounds of rain may still occur as additional storms form on the outflow from initial storms. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Thursday for IAZ006-007-016-017- 025>028-036>039-047>050-059>061. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Donavon HYDROLOGY...05  168 FXUS65 KSLC 090504 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1104 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of isolated thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of I-80 tomorrow over the higher terrain, capable of producing strong outflow winds over 50 mph. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening Thursday over portions of southern Utah. - The most significant heat wave thus far this season will develop over the weekend with high temperatures challenging daily and monthly records Saturday and Sunday. Most valleys and some mountain valleys have a greater than 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red (Major) range, bringing an increased chance of heat-related illnesses. - Confidence is increasing the monsoonal moisture will move into the area by the middle of the upcoming week, though details of which days have a higher chance of flash flooding have yet to come into focus. && .DISCUSSION... A slightly drier air mass will begin to make its way into the area tomorrow under southwest flow aloft, with the most notable drying over southern Utah. With lingering moisture over northern Utah and another subtle shortwave trough on track to move through during the afternoon, anticipate the development of at least a few showers and thunderstorms, though coverage will likely be a bit less than recent days. As the airmass continues to dry and strong high pressure builds substantially over the western United States, confidence is high in temperatures across Utah and southwest Wyoming shooting up to record challenging levels for Saturday and Sunday. Guidance continues to show the center of the ridge over Utah on Saturday and just east of the area on Sunday. Guidance has, if anything, gone up with regard to the forecast compared to yesterday, with the majority of valleys and mountain valleys showing at least a 60 percent chance of red (major) HeatRisk for both Saturday and Sunday. It seems all but certain that daily temperature records will be broken, with some monthly and (in the case of the Cache Valley) all time records forecast to be broken. Given this and many valley low temperatures staying in the 70s overnight, this will predictably bring a quite increased chance of heat related illnesses over the weekend. Given the high confidence in the forecast, have gone ahead and issued an Extreme Heat Watch for all of those areas with at least a 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red, which includes just about all valleys (lower Washington county excluded) and many mountain valleys. As the forecast comes in clearer focus over the next couple of days, upcoming shifts will make decisions about advisories and warnings. With southerly flow expected to increase over the area for the early and middle part of the upcoming week, models continue to indicate a high likelihood of monsoonal moisture returning to the area, bringing temperatures down and rain chances up. While this would decrease the fire danger, it brings an increased potential for flash flooding, particularly for southern Utah. The ECMWF ensemble probability of >1" of precipitable water, for example, indicates a 60-80% of that magnitude of moisture sitting over the entire Great Basin for a week or more starting next Tuesday. Details of which days have the best chance of flash flooding have yet to be ironed out, as that will likely involve timing of weak shortwave impulses (if any), which cannot be ascertained this far out in time. && .AVIATION... KSLC...Scattered showers are forecast to persist at the KSLC terminal through 09z before drying out. Another round of thunderstorms may occur during the hours of 21-02z tomorrow, though confidence remains uncertain at this time regarding coverage. Northwest wind shift is expected to occur around 17z with drainage southerlies returning around 04z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers with occasional thunder will persist through around 09z across northern UT and southwest WY before drying out. Generally diurnal wind shifts are expected across all sites through the TAF period. Additionally, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists across most northern UT and southwest WY sites tomorrow afternoon from roughly 20-02z. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 323 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... The airmass has trended drier today under a west- southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts west off the northern Baja coast. Meanwhile, across northern Utah,lingering moisture and instability has brought high-based showers and thunderstorms that will continue into the evening, with isolated dry lightning and gusty outflow winds being the main threat. Enhanced winds combined with the low humidities have brought critical fire weather conditions across portions of central and southern Utah today. The drying trend will continue across the area through the rest of the week, with humidities continuing to trend downward across the area and overnight recoveries become increasingly poor especially across central and southern Utah. Convection will become increasingly isolated during this time as well. Breezy conditions are expected to persist into Thursday and perhaps Friday as relative humidities continue to decrease. For now, have extended the Red Flag Warning for southern Utah into Thursday, and will keep an eye on trends for Friday. As high pressure builds back into the area for the weekend into the beginning of next week, dry and very hot conditions can be expected. Temperatures are very likely to reach at least 100 degrees in most valleys over the weekend, while relative humidities in the single digits will be common. However, the pattern still looks favorable for moisture to increase into the area beginning early next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ101>108-114>116-118>122-128>131. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ495-496-498. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Van Cleave AVIATION...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  296 FXUS61 KBGM 090507 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 107 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm and humid conditions expected today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this morning over northeast Pennsylvania followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into tonight across the area. 2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday as a frontal boundary moves through the region, with localized flash flooding possible. 3) After seasonal temperatures this weekend, heat builds into the area through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Southwesterly flow returns today as a trough begins digging into the Great Lakes. This will advect a warm and humid air mass into the region, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, with dew points rising into the mid 60s (CNY) to low 70s (NEPA). While it will feel noticeable muggy, conditions are not expected to be oppressive enough to warrant any heat headlines. As the morning progresses, the approaching trough will bring two separate features capable of generating precipitation across portions of the area. The first is a shortwave moving into the Mid-Atlantic this morning, which will support scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of NEPA. Most of the heavier rainfall is expected to remains to our south, though showers and storms may brush parts of the Wyoming Valley and into the Southern Catskills from late morning through the afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weak instability and shear across the area during this time, keeping any convection that develops elevated and relatively weak. Attention then turns to a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest later this afternoon and evening. This feature will support a broader area of convection that will progress from northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours. The greatest potential from strong to isolated severe storms will be across the northern portion of the forecast area. With bulk shear values of 25 to 35 knots and MUCAPE around 1000-1500J/KG, a few storms may be capable of producing damaging winds. In addition, isolated flash flooding will be possible. Sounding profiles remain favorable for efficient rainfall production, with long and skinny CAPE profiles, PWATs between 1.5 and 2 inches, warm cloud depths near 12K feet and MBE vectors of just 5 to 10 knots. These parameters support slow moving or back building convection capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. This threat appears greatest from late afternoon through the overnight hours. KEY MESSAGE 2... The frontal boundary is expected to push through the area Thursday night into Friday morning, though the exact timing remains somewhat uncertain. Some guidance favors a quicker passage during the early overnight hours, while other solutions delay the front until late overnight or early Friday morning before slowing it near the NY/PA border through late morning and early afternoon. Should the slower solution verify, a shortwave lifting east from western PA would support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Twin Tiers and spreading into the Poconos during the afternoon and evening hours. The presence of a slow moving frontal boundary near the NY/PA border combined with the enhanced lift associated with the shortwave and a warm, moisture rich air mass could support multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the same locations, further increasing the potential for isolated flash flooding. Given this setup, the area remains within a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Key Message 3... A broad area of high pressure is expected to become established over the central US early next week, with an upper level ridge expanding eastward into the region. This pattern favors a return to very warm conditions, with model guidance indicating 850 mb temperatures rising into the +16 C to +20 C range. As a result, widespread mid 80s to lower 90s are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Attention then turns to a trough attempting to dig into the Northeast later next week, which could bring a return to cooler temperatures. However confidence remains low regarding how successful this trough will be in suppressing the ridge and delivering meaningful cooling to the region. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR throughout the TAF period. Will have to watch for possible fog at KELM overnight. Also, a MVFR stratus deck may work into KAVP for a few hours as well. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours. Confidence and expected coverage at this time only warrants mention of a VFR shower in the afternoon hours Thursday. Outlook: Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Friday...Cold front could moves in, with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Restrictions possible. Saturday into Monday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ES/JTC AVIATION...MWG  350 FXUS64 KLZK 090509 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1209 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon but with less coverage than days past. Rain chances decrease even more Thursday and Friday. - Temperatures will remain very warm but at or near seasonal averages. Heat advisories may be needed over the east Thursday and possibly Friday which will be the warmest days of the week. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as several upper level systems move through. Precipitation will not be restricted to just the hottest time of the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 |Not many value added changes to make to the current forecast this morning as guidance has remained consistent with previous thinking. As expected, convection did fire up Tuesday afternoon and quickly dissipated after sunset. Conditions across the FA this morning are generally clear with temperatures currently a few degrees warmer versus previous nights and range from the lower to mid 70s. The upper level feature that largely drove the convection the past few days is now over western Tennessee and slowly moving away. Any convection today will once again be diurnally driven but the CAMS guidance shows more sporadic coverage and a broadbrush 20% should suffice. With less cloud coverage/precipitation chances in the forecast, widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected. Convection coverage will diminish Thursday/Friday as upper level high pressure tries to nose in resulting in the warmest days of the week with highs well in the 90s for everyone. No heat related headlines will be needed today but heat index values over our eastern zones may require a heat advisory Thursday and possibly Friday. Precipitation chances increase this weekend as a messy pattern develops allowing several weak shortwaves to move through the prevailing flow. Moisture remains elevated and precipitation chances will not be restricted to just the afternoon through early evening hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances. Early next week, the upper pattern begins to morph with a strong upper level ridge developing over the 4 corners and into the northern plains. If this does come to fruition, precipitation chances go back down with NE upper flow developing but temperatures will remain quite warm && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect VFR conditions to prevail across all sites between the forecast period of early Thursday morning and early Friday morning. A few instances of thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arkansas or at the sites of KHRO and KBPK later Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 94 78 93 76 / 20 20 20 40 Camden AR 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 93 78 92 75 / 30 20 30 40 Hot Springs AR 94 77 94 77 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 95 78 95 78 / 10 10 10 0 Monticello AR 94 77 94 77 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 92 77 91 77 / 0 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 92 77 91 74 / 30 30 30 40 Newport AR 96 78 96 77 / 20 20 20 40 Pine Bluff AR 95 77 95 77 / 10 10 0 0 Russellville AR 95 79 95 78 / 20 10 0 10 Searcy AR 95 77 95 76 / 20 10 20 10 Stuttgart AR 95 78 95 78 / 10 10 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...74  372 FXUS66 KSGX 090509 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1009 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A strong area of high pressure will bring hot weather through the middle of the week for areas away from the coast. Slight cooling occurs by the weekend as high pressure moves to the northeast. In its wake, monsoonal moisture moves into the region on Sunday into at least the first half of next week. This will bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances to inland areas with greater humidity for the entire region. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... It's getting warm out there...highs by late morning have eclipsed 100 degrees in parts of the lower deserts. A lovely walk outside our office was had, but that early July sun angle definitely made those 70s feel quite toasty! Moderate (level 3 of 5) to Major (level 4 of 5) HeatRisk is now expected for inland regions through Friday, as the heat alerts have been extended one more day. We would like to remind everyone to practice good heat safety: drink plenty of water, seek shade, and take breaks if working/spending time outside, and check on family, friends, and neighbors. Hiking in the mountains is also discouraged! During this time period, high temperatures in the lower desert will be near 115 degrees and near 100 to 110 in the high desert. Areas of the Inland Empire will warm up to 105 degrees each day as well, with plentiful 90s in the SD/RIV County mountains and inland valleys. Low temperatures will cool off pretty well for most areas, but the lower deserts will remain warm in the upper 70s and 80s. The area of high pressure over the region this week will move to the northeast by this weekend. This will give the opportunity for the flow aloft to move in from the southeast, bringing in greater monsoonal moisture to the region in the form of higher humidity and chances for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday will remain dry, where humidity will first start to increase. Models indicate PWAT's peaking by Sunday through Monday, along with a noted indication of increased CAPE across inland areas. Southeast flow aloft becomes more apparent by Sunday (possibly as early as early Sunday morning), where slight chances of rain begin to be introduced for parts of the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across primarily the mountains and deserts, locally into the eastern parts of the valleys in Inland Empire and San Diego County, through at least the middle of next week. The forecast shows the highest chances of storms on Monday afternoon across our mountain areas. With this flow pattern, higher humidity will remain across the entire region, including coastal areas, for this weekend into the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... 090500Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 800-1200 ft MSL are beginning to move on land, patchy through 08z, filling in coverage up to 20 miles inland by 12z. Low clouds expected to clear 16-18Z. VFR through the evening. Low clouds with similar bases form offshore after 03z. .Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink  587 FXUS61 KPHI 090510 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 110 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for 06Z TAFs && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Humidity returns on Thursday along with potential severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Humidity returns on Thursday along with potential severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. Weak high pressure over western New York and western Pennsylvania slides to the south and east this evening and will be off the Mid- Atlantic coast tonight. Return flow sets up behind the departing high, and a light southerly flow tonight will increase during the day Thursday. Dew points in the mid 60s this evening will increase into the upper 60s tonight, and then into the mid 70s on Thursday. Although temperatures will "only" be in the mid 80s or so, which is right around normal for this time of the year, the heat index will be in the low to mid 90s due to those high dew points. The main concern on Thursday will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. With low pressure approaches from the west and tracks towards the Mid- Atlantic by Thursday evening. A mid-level trough will move into the Northeast with some shortwave energy passing through the Delaware Valley, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey. SBCAPE values will be in excess of 1500 J/kg with PWATS from 2-2.5 inches, highest values from the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, south into Delmarva. 0-6 km shear will be from 25 to 30 kt. The two main threats from severe weather will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather (2 out of 5) for the Delaware Valley south of Philadelphia, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) from around Philadelphia north to Allentown. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, the eastern shores of Maryland, and Delaware, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) for the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. Although some showers and thunderstorms will fire up over far western portions of the forecast area from noon-2pm, the main timing will be from 4pm-10pm across the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. While showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and localized flash flooding are likely for the northern zones as well, the highest impacts in terms of potential severe weather and flash flooding should be focused generally south of Philadelphia. A warm and muggy night with patchy fog developing Thursday night after showers and thunderstorms come to an end by midnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of a cold front moving southward into the area. Similarly to Thursday, moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front, where PWAT values are progged to be in excess of 1.8 inches. This supports that any given shower or storm will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As of now, the majority of our forecast area is highlighted in an MARGINAL risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. In terms of the severe weather threat, ML CAPES are expected to reach at least 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values around 30 kt. Given better frontal forcing, there looks to be at least another opportunity for severe weather. As of now, SPC has our entire area highlighted in just a general thunder risk, however some of the MLP guidance indicate higher probabilities especially in terms of damaging winds. It is also worth noting that Friday will be quite sticky outside with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. This will result in heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. We may get close to Heat Advisory criteria in some spots, but basis the current forecast, heat indicies are expected to remain just below advisory criteria. There remains a vast amount of uncertainty with how Saturday will pan out as guidance continues to struggle with how quickly the cold front clears the area. Some guidance slows the progression of the front, keeping more in the way of showers around on Saturday, whereas others show a faster progression, yielding mainly dry weather. As mentioned by the previous shift, opted to stay very close to NBM PoPs for this period, which keeps 10-30% PoPs north, with 30-60% PoPs mainly across south Jersey and the Delmarva. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s. By Sunday and into early next week, guidance is showing an expansive upper level ridge setting up over the northern High Plains. This will yield dry weather and mainly clear skies across the Mid- Atlantic. Temperatures will be around normal for Sunday and Monday, but will swing back above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Tonight (through 12z)...Primarily VFR though some MVFR stratus develops late at all terminals except KACY sometime between 10z-12z. Winds generally light, though favoring a south/southwest direction. Moderate confidence. Today...Primarily VFR though scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and early evening. Coverage of showers/thunderstorms will be focused mainly from KRDG/KTTN on south. Have added TEMPO TSRA groups at all terminals except KABE as a period of thunderstorms are increasingly likely (60-70%) sometime between 18z-00z. Winds generally out of the south/southwest around 10 kt with higher gusts anticipated in any thunderstorms. Moderate confidence overall. Thursday Night...Primarily VFR as showers and thunderstorms move offshore. Cannot rule out some patchy fog, especially over areas that see rainfall. Winds out of the west/southwest around 5 kt or less. Low confidence. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR with periods of sub- VFR possible. A chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Saturday though Saturday night...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of sub-VFR conditions. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday through Monday...VFR. No significant weather expected. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight through Thursday night. South to southwest winds around 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Thursday afternoon, becoming W 5 to 10 kt Thursday night. Seas 2 to 3 feet. VSBY restrictions in fog possible tonight, then again Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain and gusty winds will impact the waters late Thursday afternoon and evening. Outlook... Friday through Monday...No marine headlines are expected at this time. Winds will largely remain between 5-15 kt through Sunday, with winds up to 20 kt possible on Monday. Seas around 2-4 feet. A chance for showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening through Saturday, with fair weather returning for Sunday and Monday. Rip Currents... For Thursday, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomes more southeasterly. This combination gives a MODERATE risk for the northern NJ beaches, with a LOW risk further south. For Friday, winds turn southwesterly, and the swell weakens. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/MPS AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MPS/RCM MARINE...DeSilva/MPS/RCM  489 FXUS63 KDDC 090510 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1210 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening upper level ridge will support afternoon highs today ranging from the low 90s north to the upper 90s/near 100 south. - Severe thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. - Strong upper level ridge will build over the weekend into next week, resulting in afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and little to no precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Early morning radar observations show scattered showers and thunderstorms percolating across western KS ahead of a weak upper level impulse over the central Rockies. 00Z CAM suite suggests this activity will continue to trend down over the next few hours, and the remainder of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Daytime Thursday, modest upper level zonal flow over the northern plains will expand southward into the central plains as a ridge over the far southwestern CONUS weakens and a weak disturbance shifts eastward from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Subtle height falls will help shave a few degrees off afternoon temperatures along and north of US-50, where highs will be in the low to mid 90s, but areas near and adjacent to the KS/OK border will still reach the upper 90s/low 100s. Focus then shifts to the probability of severe thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon through the evening. All HREF members agree scattered thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain in eastern CO as early as 17Z ahead of the aforementioned weak upper level impulse. Given 500-mb flow around 20 kts, convection will take its sweet time propagating eastward, but will encounter increasingly better moisture with eastward extent amidst 30-35 kts of deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. Amalgamation into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) appears the most likely scenario by the time this activity reaches the KS/CO border, which will favor a primarily severe wind gust threat as the thunderstorm complex rolls across southwest KS through the evening and into the overnight period. Some large hail threat cannot be ruled out near the KS/CO border if any semi-discrete cells can be maintained prior to ultimate upscale growth. Daytime Friday, short range ensembles agree the upper level pattern will begin to amplify as a ridge begins to build atop the High Plains. Typically, this would result in an uptick in afternoon temperatures for southwest KS, however convective outflow from the previous night's MCS and only slight height rises support afternoon highs ranging from the mid/upper 80s near I-70 to the mid 90s along the KS/OK border. Another round of severe thunderstorms appears possible Friday evening as CAMs once again show an MCS on our doorstep in far eastern CO at 00Z, but increasing subsidence over our area may limit convective coverage/maintenance, so confidence is limited. Saturday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles indicate the upper level ridge will continue to build, eventually encompassing nearly the entire CONUS with its core centered over the northern plains. This ridge positioning will actually keep the hottest temperatures displaced from southwest KS, allowing afternoon highs to hold in the low to mid 90s into mid-next week. However, the trade off will be little to no precipitation chances during this period as NBM pops are quiet (<15%) through next Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR flying conditions will prevail across all terminals for the majority of this TAF cycle, with light andvariable winds. Late in the period, high-resolution guidance are in agreement a thunderstorm complex will roll from west to east across southwest KS. Low confidence in timing of terminal impacts precluded inclusion in the TAFs, but TSRA will likely bring IFR/LIFR conditions to all terminals during the 02-06Z time frame. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Springer  471 FXUS64 KSJT 090510 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1210 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and dry conditions return for today though Friday with afternoon highs near or above the 100 degree mark. - Low to medium (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions today. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid 90s to around 102. Please follow heat safety precautions if you plan to be outside. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper-level ridge will continue to be the predominant weather feature on Friday. This means hot and dry conditions will persist across the region with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Conditions should remain below Heat Advisory criteria. Looking ahead to this weekend, models remain in good agreement that the ridge will shift to the northern Plains and strengthen. Meanwhile an area of mid-level vorticity will rotate around the base of this ridge into the southern Plains. The low-level flow should become more southeasterly during this time and advect more gulf moisture into west central Texas. As a result, this should lead to a more unsettled pattern across the region with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms especially Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The winds will be from the south and a little gusty Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 98 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 98 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 96 73 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 98 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 100 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 95 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...21  530 FXUS65 KCYS 090510 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1110 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and Thursday with heavy rainfall, hail, and strong gusty winds possible. - A ridge builds into the long term, drying the area out and developing Red Flag and potential heat advisory conditions through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 As of this afternoon the dryline is noted on radar right around the I-25 corridor and retreating westwards into Cheyenne proper. Development has begun along this boundary with a few storms noted, but nothing strong currently. Forecast sounding profiles across the region note inverted V's, which combined with DCAPE values into the 1000-1500 J/kg range would be indicative of high based storms with strong wind gusts the primary hazards. That being said, there is a little bit of instability across the region, and some meager support for updrafts, so we can't rule out a storm or two to have at least some hail, whether it be severe in size or small accumulating hail. Finally, moisture is actually notably plentiful east of I-25 despite the dry surface, with PWAT values into the 1-1.5" range. With the scattered nature of storm development, if any we get multiple stronger storms training over the same location, a marginal risk of excessive rainfall will be possible. Storms will continue into the early evening, but by around 8-9 PM storms should be on the decline as support wanes. Moving into Thursday, our severe risk continues once again along and east of the I-25 corridor, but this time profiles will support a bit more organization to storm development. Initial storms should go up during the early afternoon with steep mid- level lapse rates and modest instability around 1000-2000 J/kg, which would support isolated storms capable of both large hail and damaging winds. This batch of activity though will likely grow upscale into a more linear feature, which will shift the primary hazard into mostly strong winds as storms evolve into western Nebraska. And like today, PWAT values into the 1-1.5" range should fuel at least a meager risk of localized flooding. Once again as the sun goes down we'll see storm activity wane and/or move out of our area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday...The atmosphere dries out somewhat compared to today and Thursday, with shortwave ridging aloft bulging over eastern Wyoming. The 12Z GFS indicates decent low and mid level moisture for far southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, and diurnal heating and low level mechanical lift, along with a passing perturbation, will likely produce isolated late day showers and thunderstorms from I-25 eastward, and we may see our POPS and thunderstorm coverage increase somewhat in the next few model runs and days. Saturday through Wednesday...Ridging aloft dominates our region, with quite dry air at low and mid levels, accompanied by 700 mb temperatures from 14 to 21 Celsius, thus chances for late day showers and thunderstorms will be nearly nil and non existent, and dry weather will prevail. The 700 mb temperatures will yield maximum temperatures in the 90 to 105 degree range. A weak perturbation and a slight increase in mid level moisture may spark isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday, and moreso on Wednesday, along the convective inhibition aloft gradient along the I-25 corridor and further to the west. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1108 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers continue to move off to the east, currently only impacting the KAIA terminals with light rain. Mostly cloudy skies continue across western Nebraska for the next 1 to 2 hours before clearing out into mostly clear skies overnight. With all the precipitation this evening, isolated, patchy fog may develop at KLAR, KCYS, KBFF, KSNY, and KAIA overnight into the early morning hours. Included TEMPO groups to cover this threat, though confidence is low at this time. Another round of showers and thunderstorms returns in the afternoon, with gusty and erratic winds expected in and around any showers or storms that develop. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...AM  802 FXUS63 KOAX 090513 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1213 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cluster of thunderstorms will continue moving southeast this evening into the overnight hours. The main hazards will be pockets of strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. - Near-normal temperatures continue into Friday, with highs generally in the 80s. - A stretch of hot weather is expected this weekend into next week, with highs in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight through Friday... A cluster of thunderstorms have developed along a front draped across northeast Nebraska earlier this evening, supported by a shortwave trough pushing across the northern Plains. Rather limited deep-layer shear (around 20 kts) has kept the initial storm development rather stationary along this boundary. Ample instability (MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg) along with the sufficient shear has brought pockets of strong to severe storms along this cluster. Cold-pool development behind the line will lead to an eventual southward push of this system into the overnight period. As the cold-pool helps force the storms into more of an upscale cluster, isolated pockets of damaging wind gusts (pockets of 60 mph) will be one of the primary hazards over the next few hours, aided by DCAPE of 1000-1200 J/kg. The severe weather potential will gradually decay into the overnight period. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain another concern. PWAT values near 1.80-2" (above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology) and warm cloud depths of 4 km have brought efficient rainfall processes, especially when coupled with the longer residence time. Pockets of 3- 4.50 inches of rainfall have been reported, with the highest totals in western Iowa. CAM guidance continues to hint at a few scattered storms redeveloping behind the main cluster overnight, though the severe weather potential will be limited with these storms given the increasing inhibition and decreasing shear. Storms will push southward across the area overnight, clearing much of the forecast area by 7 AM. Can't rule out a few afternoon storms redeveloping along the front in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, though the better shear and instability should stay just to our south. The lingering cloud cover and slightly cooler air mass will bring afternoon highs in the low to upper 80s. Similar temperatures are expected on Friday with partly cloudy skies. Saturday and Beyond... This weekend into early next week, an amplifying mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to build over the Front Range and gradually expand eastward into the mid-Missouri Valley, leading to a warming trend and relatively dry conditions. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will take a step upward into the upper 80s to mid 90s. By Monday, most locations are expected to reach the 90s a few spots in northeast Nebraska expected to reach the triple digits. Overnight lows will remain in the low 70s. Heat index values are expected to reach the mid 90s to around 105 degrees daily. This hot pattern with minimal precipitation chances will continue into the work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are now south of all three TAF sites. Could see a isolated shower or two pop up overnight at KOMA or KLNK, but at odds of under 20%, have left out of TAF for now. Expect dry conditions to be most likely. KOFK is likely to see LIFR conditions develop with fog and low cigs developing just before sunrise. Otherwise expect VFR conditions to return by 10 AM. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None.&& $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Nicolaisen  848 FXUS62 KMFL 090514 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 114 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors. - Little to no rainfall today; scattered to numerous storms Friday and Saturday, and some could be strong. - Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A general synoptic picture of the eastern CONUS consists of a shortwave/closed low over the MS/TN Valleys, a shortwave off the Northeast US coast, ridging over Florida, and a TUTT over the far southeastern Bahamas. Southeast flow facilitated by the high pressure over the western Atlantic and Florida peninsula will continue to advect a dusty Saharan air mass across the area today which should limit any afternoon thunderstorm potential and lead to mainly clear skies throughout the day. While the drier and dusty air could act to bring down dewpoints if it mixes to the surface, heat index values will still climb into the 105-110 degree range as the southeast flow should still continue to advect moisture at the lower levels. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for all of South Florida today. Take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat. The departure of this Saharan air mass is expected on Friday and subsequently, rain chances will increase with thunderstorms developing mainly across interior and Southwest Florida Friday afternoon. PWATs climb from the 1.3-1.5 inch range to the 1.8-2 inch range by Friday evening which is near normal for early July. The aforementioned TUTT will be at our doorstep by late Friday which could also act to enhance the coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms enhanced divergence aloft associated with the TUTT will remain to the south of the area and it will also be weakening as it approaches from the Southeast. With enhanced low level moisture, another very hot day is expected on Friday with heat index values reaching the 105-110 degree range. Another heat advisory is probable. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The shortwave across the central CONUS will continue to drift east and elongate as it slowly phases in with the northern stream as a shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. Simultaneously, the aforementioned TUTT will continue to progress just south of the region heading into the weekend. High pressure remains across the western Atlantic which will maintain southeasterly flow through the weekend and will advect an additional plume of Saharan dust across the area by mid-weekend. Ahead of the arrival of drier air, scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across interior and Southwest Florida on Saturday afternoon. PWATs begin to drop back into the 1.3-1.4 inch range on Sunday and Monday which should limit the convective potential towards the end of the weekend into early next week. Maximum rain chances will drop into the 20-40% through Wednesday. Hot conditions are expected to continue through the period, especially for locations that don't receive relief from afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid-upper 90s each afternoon with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees. Additional head advisories will be likely through the remainder of the weekend and into the upcoming work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light southeasterly winds increasing by late morning with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Winds and seas will increase a bit through the remainder of the week as the western edge of high pressure spreads across the SW Atlantic and SE Gulf. Showers and storms are unlikely today, but rain chances will increase Friday into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 94 82 93 81 / 10 0 30 20 West Kendall 94 80 94 78 / 10 10 30 20 Opa-Locka 95 82 95 81 / 10 0 30 20 Homestead 93 81 93 80 / 10 10 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 93 83 93 82 / 10 10 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 82 92 81 / 10 10 30 10 Pembroke Pines 96 83 95 82 / 10 10 30 20 West Palm Beach 93 81 93 80 / 10 10 30 10 Boca Raton 92 82 91 81 / 0 10 30 10 Naples 96 78 95 78 / 20 10 70 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...Rizzuto  899 FXUS63 KDLH 090515 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A mainly dry and warming pattern is expected through the forecast period. - Dangerous heat is possible Saturday and especially Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A cold front was located across northwest Wisconsin back into the Twin Cities metro area early this afternoon with high pressure building across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms were developing ahead of the cold front across northwest Wisconsin along and south of a Manitowish Waters to Hayward to Hinckley line. Cloud cover through the day has limited instability across northwest Wisconsin and no strong or severe storms are expected before activity exits the region later this evening. Heavy rainfall does remain possible across Price County into this evening with PWATs in excess of 1.7" in place per latest SPC RAP analysis. High pressure will then build in for Thursday into Thursday night with zonal flow aloft. Flow turns more northwesterly on Friday with an embedded shortwave moving through the Upper Midwest Friday afternoon into Friday night. This will bring chances for shower and a few thunderstorms, mainly along the International Border and Arrowhead. Heading into the weekend, upper level ridging will develop across the central CONUS with southerly/southwesterly flow at the surface around high pressure in the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This will pump well above normal temperatures into the region with highs in the 80s Saturday before low 90s arrive for Sunday and Monday. Increasing dewpoints are also expected this weekend which will lead to hot and humid conditions with apparent temperatures reaching into the lower to mid-90s. These conditions may lead to an increased risk of heat-related illness and heat headlines may be needed. A cold front will push across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and will bring low chances for showers and thunderstorms as it moves through. Cooler air will also arrive in the wake of the front for Wednesday as highs fall back into the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 All VFR conditions overnight may deteriorate with areas of MVFR to IFR fog. Conditions should improve back to VFR for all terminals after sunrise. Light winds through the day. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Main forecast concern in the near term will be dense fog this afternoon and tonight. Fog has already developed along the North Shore per webcams and is expected to develop across the remainder of the nearshore waters into this evening before lifting after sunrise Thursday. Winds will remain under 10 knots through Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of interior northwest Wisconsin this afternoon, mainly Price County and adjacent areas. Additional rainfall up to 0.10-0.15" will be possible in this area. Dry conditions will prevail elsewhere. RH values are still forecast to vary widely across the region, with readings of 30-45% along and north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead with values above 50% elsewhere. Winds will be variable this afternoon at 5 to 10 mph. A dry and warming pattern is expected to setup for the remainder of the week and into the weekend outside of very low shower and thunderstorm chances in far northern areas Friday afternoon into Friday night. Highs will reach into the 80s Thursday- Saturday with 90s in the mix by Sunday.Thursday looks to be the driest day in terms of RH with values of 25-35% along and north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead with values of 35 to 45% elsewhere. Increasing humidity heading into the weekend will keep minimum values at around 35% or above. Winds will remain under 15 mph into Saturday with some gusts to around 20 mph by Sunday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121- 140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...Levens MARINE...BJH FIRE WEATHER...BJH  851 FXUS63 KMKX 090515 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again Thursday afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and small hail may occur along with locally heavy rainfall. - Hot and muggy conditions return early next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Tonight through Thursday Isolated showers and storms are possible tonight into early Thursday as instability and plenty of moisture linger while a shortwave moves through. Models have backed off on overall precip coverage for tonight, so bumped precip chances down to the 20-40 percent range. Clouds and dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 will keep temps from falling much more the remainder of the night. Could see some redevelopment of storms by Thursday afternoon as a surface trough drops through southern Wisconsin. Still wouldn't be surprised by a stronger storm or two producing some small hail and gusty winds during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with any slow moving stronger storms. Went with high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s tomorrow given the surface trough dropping through, plenty of clouds, and shower/storm chances. It will be a humid day again, with dewpoints lingering around 70. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Friday through Wednesday: Mainly dry weather is likely from Friday into early next week as an upper ridge builds in and surface high pressure largely sits over the region. Not out of the question to see a few storms sneak over the top of the ridge into southern Wisconsin as the ridge moves in late this week and begins to flatten by mid-week next week. Overall though, dry weather should prevail much of the time along with increasing temperatures this weekend into early next week. Highs around 90 are possible Monday through Wednesday. Dewpoints will in the mid 60s to around 70 will be a little lower than the last stretch of 90+ degree temps, which should keep heat afternoon heat indices from reaching the 100 degree mark. Currently expecting the heat index to top out in the 90-95 degree range Mon-Wed. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A chance for showers and a few storms will continue into tonight as deep moisture lingers and a shortwave slowly moves through. Models are still trending toward isolated coverage overnight, so lowered the precip chances a bit. An additional round of showers and storms will be possible tomorrow, particulary during the afternoon hours as the surface trough drops through southern Wisconsin. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with any stronger storms. A round of MVFR ceilings will be possible late tonight into Thursday morning, particularly northwest of a line from Monroe to Port Washington, with mainly VFR conditions returning for the afternoon hours. Winds will largely be light and variable tonight, becoming westerly Thursday morning and shifting to the north from north to south during the afternoon as the surface trough drops southward. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 High pressure around 30.0 inches will remain over the Ohio River Valley through tonight. Light south winds will continue tonight, as weak low pressure around 29.8 inches and an accompanying cold front approaches from Upper Michigan and northwest Wisconsin. Light winds will become north behind the frontal passage Thursday into Thursday night. Winds will become north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.0 inches builds into the the region from the northwest. The high should continueto bring light to modest winds for the weekend. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  839 FXUS64 KAMA 090514 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Hot temperatures continue to hold for the Panhandles with potential to see triple-digit temperatures this afternoon. - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances continue today through Sat night. Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. - A dry and hot pattern may return next week with high pressure looking to settle over the Central and Northern Great Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Hot temperatures under a mid to upper level ridge are expected to continue today and tomorrow. Mid level moisture along with upper level disturbances in the ridge are expected to introduce late afternoon into evening thunderstorm chances. For today though, a bit of negative H7 theta-e advection is progged for the southern TX Panhandle potentially taking away a shot for areas in the southern FA to get any rainfall. For the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle, where better moisture will exist, could potentially see CAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/Kg. This could allow stronger and higher updrafts to develop and collapse with little shear to work with. This is adding an increased threat for damaging wind gusts compared to last evening. Still not expecting much in way of beneficial rainfall under this pattern. CAMs are looking less excited, especially for counties east of the far western stack of counties in the Panhandles. While Thursday had previously looked better for PoPs across much of the FA, it is now Friday that is looking to be the better day. Once again, highs are expected to be in the upper 90s with the usual warm spots hitting the 100-104 degree range Friday afternoon. Mid- level moisture is expected to stay in the northern combined Panhandles, pretty much areas north of I-40. This area is expected to have a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts once again as better instability will be for storms to strengthen and unleash a good amount of rain into high DCAPE areas. Shear is expected to be slightly better, however, the hail risk is still in question with such warm temperatures aloft in the middle of summer. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another round of slight chance to chance PoPs exists Sat night as the pattern continues with subtle variations. Pops drop off after Sat night with a bit of upper level ridge suppression. This will allow the combined Panhandles to come under southeasterly winds at the surface. Leading to increasing Tds and not has high afternoon temperatures Mon into Wed. However, still seeing highs progged in the 90s. Though the NBM is not giving very much in way of PoPs Sunday night onward, would not rule out slight changes in the rain forecast as those days get closer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period. The caveat is there is a prob30 for thunder at all three terminals after 00Z Friday. Expect southerly winds to prevail with speeds up to 15 gust 25 kts outside of any thunder influence. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...03  874 FXUS66 KPDT 090515 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1015 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and locally breezy for the next few days. - Elevated fire weather concerns through the end of the week. - Increasing heat around the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Dry westerly flow will be over the region through Thursday. By Friday, the flow becomes more southwesterly, in response to low pressure off the coast of British Columbia and high pressure near the Four Corners. This ridge of high pressure will expand north and eventually west as we move into next week. Diurnally breezy conditions are expected, mainly over the Cascade Gaps, Simcoe Highlands, Kittitas Valley and Columbia Basin and Gorge. Winds gusts will mainly be in the 20 to 30 mph range. NBM probabilities of wind gusts >= 25 mph are greater than 80 percent through Saturday. However, wind gusts >= 39 mph are generally less than 50 percent, with the exception of the Kittitas Valley. As we get into next week, a large area of high pressure over the Great Basin will move northward then eventually westward. Guidance has been very consistent in bringing increasingly hot weather starting around the middle of the week. What guidance has been less consistent about is exactly how hot it gets and how long it will last. Some of that is simply due to the time scale of the forecast. Some of that is due to the position of the ridge and how it sets up. Temperatures close to 100 degrees, if not above 100 degrees look to start around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week in the lower elevations and potentially go up from there. A 40 to 50 percent chance of moderate HeatRisk returning with Major Heat Risk at least in the Columbia Basin and Yakima Valley is possible as well. If some of the more bullish guidance ends up being correct, there could end up being multiple days of 100 plus temperatures in the lower elevation areas. Stay tuned on this one. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast at all sites for the next 24 hours. Skies will be mostly clear aside from periodic passing high clouds. Winds will be diurnally and terrain-driven, strongest at DLS where breezy gap winds are expected Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Diurnally breezy winds over the next few days in the 20 to 30 mph range (with locally higher areas) combined with RH values will keep elevated fire weather concerns. For Thursday, winds will be marginal, around 30 mph again, with RH values mainly in the teens. The area of focus on shifts to the Columbia Basin and Gorge and will need to see if any headlines become necessary. Breezy winds continue Friday and Saturday, but RH values look to be slightly higher....in the 20s in many locations. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 55 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 60 90 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 57 92 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 57 92 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 58 91 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 54 85 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 47 88 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 53 89 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 50 91 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 58 89 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...77  962 FXUS63 KABR 090517 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect Thursday afternoon through evening for north central South Dakota and parts of central South Dakota west of the Missouri River. Hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main threats. - A slight cooldown is expected today and Thursday, with widespread near-normal high temperatures (upper 70s to 80s). A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 850 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few models are indicating patchy fog potential late tonight into early Thursday morning across the eastern CWA, so added mention of this. Most probable areas appear to be in/near the James and Big Sioux river valleys. With mostly clear skies overnight and light winds, along with wet soils, certainly not out of the question. Otherwise, no big changes to the forecast for the overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 There area some low clouds over portions of central and northeastern SD this morning. The lower clouds should dissipate by the afternoon and mostly clear skies will be around during the afternoon. While there is some instability over central SD this afternoon, there is a capped environment over central and northeastern SD that should keep storms and showers from developing during the evening into tonight. Temperatures today and Thursday will be around normal for this time of the year, with highs in the 70s to 80s. A frontal boundary will be moving into SD Thursday afternoon through the night with some warm, moist temperatures sneaking in during the day. There will be higher instability Thursday afternoon over northwestern SD, with CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, which will help with storm development as the frontal boundary pushes through late Thursday afternoon. During the evening, the environment for storms will weaken, with CAPE values dropping into the 1000 J/kg and even lower during the overnight hours. The storms will move east into central and northeastern SD into the weaker environment which will start to weaken the storms and cause them to dissipate. High-res models are still forecasting scattered storms to move into north central SD and some area west of the Missouri River Thursday evening before dissipating as they move east. There is a slight (level 2 out of 5) to marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for these storms to become severe over north central SD. The primary hazards in these storms will be hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60-70 mph. An upper-level ridge will be starting to develop over SD Friday into the weekend and early next week. This ridge will be pushing warm, humid air up into central and northeastern SD through the weekend and onward. Temperatures warm to be around 5-15 degrees warmer than normal on Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Then they will increase even more Sunday and Monday to be in the mid 90s to mid 100s. Heat index values will get up into the mid 90s to triple digits Sunday and Monday. There is a 30-50% chance for heat risk to reach Major category Saturday, with a 75-95% chance Sunday and Monday. There is also a 25-45% chance of the Heat Risk to get into the Extreme category Monday. Those who are sensitive to heat as well as those who lack cooling and hydration through the day could develop heat illnesses. The ridge and high pressure will also helpto keep storms and showers from developing and moving into central and northeastern SD through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG There could be some sub-VFR vsbys in fog at KABR/KATY (perhaps even some spotty MVFR stratus/cigs) by sunrise Thursday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are currently forecast during the TAF period. Closer to the end of the TAF valid period, some showers/storms out west may be rolling into the KMBG/KPIR terminals. Have introduced some PROB30 mention for this potential. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...10  091 FXUS62 KJAX 090520 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 120 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorms Today & Friday. Storm coverage increases this weekend and early next week. - Dangerous Heat Through the Weekend. Heat Advisory Today for All of Northeast FL and Southeast GA. - Moderate Rip Current Risk Beaches Thursday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Heat Advisory Area-Wide Today - Isolated Afternoon and Evening Storms Another hot day ahead today as mid to upper level ridging continues to build. Mostly sunny skies and southwesterly winds will allow high temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s, with max heat index values in the 105-111 degree range, prompting a Heat Advisory from 11am-8pm. Forecast high temperatures today are just below previous record highs, see climate section below. Convective chances are lower today due to the subsidence and drier air in place, however CAMs continue indicate a window for isolated storms later this afternoon near Marion/Putnam/St. Johns/Flagler counties. An additional area of isolated convection is expected near the Altamaha river basin towards coastal southeast Georgia. Another night of mild temperatures forecast, lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential for Friday and Saturday - Lower convective chances Friday, but increased chance Saturday Low to mid level ridge over central FL on Friday will nudge further north into Saturday while moisture continues to remain somewhat limited in the 1000-700 mb layer. In fact, there will be pockets PWATs that will be near or below 1.6 inches on Friday. We do see some increase in moisture across northeast FL on Saturday so appears we will see an uptick in rain chances for Saturday, at least for northeast FL. At this time, will show rain chances limited to about 10-20 percent for Friday and 20-55 percent for Saturday, with highest chances over northeast FL, and lowest over interior southeast GA. There is possibility of higher POPs for Friday over inland northeast FL as shown by recent HREF and HRRR guidance. Steering flow through about 500 mb continues to be southwest to south on Friday. However, on Saturday, as the mean layer ridge drifts north, flow transitions to south, even southeast over northeast FL, but still weak southwesterly for southeast GA. The main concern continues to be dangerous heat risk both days. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast as southwesterly winds continue. Max temp may hit century max Afternoon heat indices will approach 102-110 degrees both days, Heat Advisories may be necessary for portions of northeast FL and the southeast GA. A couple of things that throw some uncertainty in the max temp forecast is that we may see more high clouds on Friday, and overall more clouds on Saturday with a better chance of precip. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights During This Period: = Sunday through Wednesday - Unsettled weather develops by Sunday Afternoon Onward - Not as hot Monday to Wednesday The low to mid level ridge axis will shift back south Saturday into Sunday while flow turns more westerly and a frontal boundary slowly sags southward over the southeast. Pre-frontal troughing is possible across srn GA on Sunday, with the frontal boundary probably pushing into southeast GA by then or at least by Monday night. More abundant moisture pushes into the area on Sunday and continuesMonday and Tuesday while ridging pushes well to the south over southern FL. The front looks ill-defined by Wednesday as preliminary data suggests it will be diffuse over south GA. Unsettled weather each day with rain likely chances (at 55-70 percent) Sunday, maybe up to 60-80 percent Monday. Likely rain chances continues Tuesday and Wednesday. There some concern for locally heavy rainfall, localized flooding Sunday through Tuesday though the recent dry weather should help to minimize some of the impacts. By Sunday, temperatures drop a few degrees area-wide as more storms are expected. Higher cloud coverage and storm chances will lower temperatures back to near normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday to Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions continue through the overnight hours other than typical MVFR fog at VQQ from around 07-11Z. SW flow develops again Thursday morning, with the sea breeze impacting SSI and SGJ in the afternoon. Showers and storms look to be limited to SGJ and SSI Thursday afternoon into the evening. Have placed VCTS for SGJ but with lower confidence near SSI, have left VCSH for now. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a southwest flow through early afternoon followed by late afternoon and evening wind surges from the south to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters each day through the week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents continues through the end of the week due to fairly low surf conditions from prevailing offshore flow. Some enhanced potential still looks likely for the northern beaches by late afternoon from Mayport northward due to stronger southeast wind component each day. Surf remains generally in the 1-2 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-10 FROM TODAY - Through Saturday - Heat Advisory In Effect Today High pressure ridge will prevailing just south of the area through Saturday. Drier than normal conditions are forecast today through Friday and then rain chances begin to increase Saturday through early next week as a front approaches from the north. Above average temperatures and dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values expected through Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Friday, with areas of high afternoon dispersion near and north of I-10 expected each day. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above critical values. Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected through Friday night. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows. && .CLIMATE... Summer heat continues. There is potential for some locations to get to the century mark today with probability of this occurrence at about 30 to 40 percent. These probabilities look a bit higher for Friday. For the next few days, here are the record high temperatures that are within 3 degrees of the current forecast: July 9th: KJAX: 101/1879 KGNV: 99/1932 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 101/2016 July 10th: KJAX: 102/1879 KGNV: 99/1914 KAMG: 99/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 July 11th: KGNV: 100/1900 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/1998 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 77 97 76 / 10 0 0 10 SSI 97 80 97 80 / 10 0 10 0 JAX 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 97 78 96 78 / 10 0 100 GNV 97 75 97 76 / 0 0 10 10 OCF 97 76 97 77 / 0 0 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. MARINE...None. && $$  205 FXUS63 KMPX 090521 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe thunderstorms are possible in these areas. The primary concern is damaging winds. - Chances for additional rainfall after today are few and far between, with temperatures heating up into the 90s this weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Let's begin! Regional radar highlights decaying showers along a quasi-stationary boundary draped across southern Minnesota and into west-central Wisconsin. This boundary will be the catalyst for additional thunderstorm develop this afternoon/evening that I'll touch on later. The winner from last night's rainfall was central MN where 2 to 4" fell with lesser amounts across south-central MN, the Twin Cities Metro, and western WI. Fast forwarding to current time, overcast skies have limited temperatures to the 70s with light winds present. This has made for a rather gloomy and damp day across the region. This afternoon through Tonight... our attention turns back to the stalled frontal boundary draped across southern MN. Instability will build in along and ahead of this boundary this afternoon. Forecast soundings along I-90 paint 2000+ MLCAPE and sufficient lapse rates given the better atmospheric recovery. The limiting factor will the lack of better low level wind shear. This shouldn't prevent severe weather but it'll limit how impactful or the higher end threats. Forecast soundings are supportive of clusters or multi-celluar storms that could include an embedded supercell-type structure. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of S MN and WC WI this afternoon and evening to address the potential for severe. However, the frontal boundary's position along or just north of I-90 will limit the potential impacts to MPX's CWA. Storms initiate mid- late afternoon in SC and SE MN along the I-90 corridor. As the storms intensify they'll likely move downstream to ARX and DMX's CWA in N IA/SE MN so the window for severe weather is mostly closed, but non-zero. The primary concerns will be damaging winds and maybe a brief tornado yet again the best chance of severe exists down stream given the current position of the frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall is also possible along I-90 but the storm motion will limit the potential for any significant rainfall amounts. Thursday through Saturday... the winds of change begin to usher in a pattern change. Broad troughing over the Gulf of Alaska will begin to dig into the Pacific NW and off the West Coast. This causes our mid and upper level pattern to amplify in response to the western troughing. The ridge begins building in over the Central Plains and Mountain West Friday into Saturday. This will usher in a less active, much warmer pattern for the weekend and into next week. Sunday through the middle of next week... An impressive 600dm ridge will become centered over southern Minnesota. I am opting to lean onto the AIFS & ECMWF suite more than the GEFS for the upcoming warm up given the consistency with both the deterministic Euro and the AIFS + their ensembles. There is still some uncertainty for the exact intensity and placement, but a 597 to 600dm ridge typically means we'll have some impressive heat in place Sunday into the middle of next week. This is a fairly stand out pattern that is not typical for this portion of the CONUS. The EPS has a +3 sigma anomaly with respect to the 500mb ridge. That's about as much of an outlier event as you can get. That also means that our machine learning guide will likely be slightly cooler with respect to surface temps given this falls out of most historical cases it would use to train on. Will it be a dry heat? Well for some it will be a drier heat than we previously had, but surface dew points still end up in the mid to upper 60s each day. This is far better than if they were in the mid to upper 70s. It is too early to say if we'll have any extreme heat products, but the lack of higher humidity/Td's means we'll rely more so on actual air temps. It will also limit our rain/storm chances as the jet will be directed up and over the ridge. Any ridge rider MCS should be well into Canada. The meteorology would support potential highs in the mid to upper 90s Sunday-Tuesday time frame... with a chance of 100 degrees not out of the question depending on how things pan out. EPS has ~10% chance Monday & Tuesday across I-90 and into the Twin Cities metro so it's not a great chance, but there is a chance. BPH OUT. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Satellite imagery shows some persistent lower-mid level cloud cover that has been hovering from 025-040 in an area from MSP to RWF and farther south, and there is little reason to not believe that it will persist into a good portion of the night. Guidance has backtracked on how aggressive the lowering of CIGS/VIS will be during the first 6-8 hours of the period, thus have went with a more conservative approach keeping most sites at VFR or high MVFR with the main exception being MKT. Winds will be light and variable overnight at or below 3kts, which should allow radiation fog when coupled with the rain seen today. We may end needing to chase some observations with AMDs as we see how the cloud cover affects the lower level fog. KMSP...Elected to keep things borderline MVFR/VFR after 09z as guidance was still relatively bullish on bringing at least some lowering VSBY this morning, however kept it to 3kft CIGS and 6sm. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...TDH  089 FXUS64 KJAN 090520 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels (limited to elevated) of heat will return Thursday and persist into the weekend. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight hours as the atmosphere is still humid and unstable. However, any additional activity would likely need lift assistance from outflow boundaries left from evening convection. Showers and storms remain possible again tomorrow afternoon, mainly along and east of the Interstate 55 corridor. An isolated shower or storm could occur elsewhere. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This afternoon through tonight: As was the case yesterday, we're seeing most of the deep convection focused outside of our forecast area this afternoon. A few storms could manage to move in or develop over the area as we go through the evening, but coverage should stay fairly sparse by July standards. Thursday into the weekend: Rain chances will diminish for Thu- Fri and remain relatively low for this time of the year as the subtropical ridge rebuilds over the forecast area. Accompanying the building ridge will be an increasing heat danger risk with H850 temps approach 21 deg C and low level flow developing a more westerly component. We will continue to message this threat with a heat danger graphic and coordinate with neighboring forecast areas concerning any heat advisory issuances that may become necessary. Early to mid next week: Global models have a had a strong signal for a shortwave trough rotating around the ridge and sending a boundary toward our area in the Mon-Tue time frame, and this could support a significant round or two of convective rainfall. Along with this, the heat will diminish to below dangerous levels. For next Wednesday, a typical mid summer regime with convective rainfall focused mainly over southern portions of the area should exist. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Overall, VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog and low stratus, mainly south of the Interstate 20 corridor, could yield a 1-3 hour period of MVFR/IFR categories around day break at sites where observed. Conditions will begin improving back to VFR status shortly after sunrise, with isolated to scattered convection . possible in areas mainly east of the Interstate 55 corridor. Winds overnight will generally be light from the southwest to calm. These will increase from the southwest between 5-10 knots by late morning. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 93 74 93 75 / 10 10 10 0 Meridian 93 74 94 75 / 30 0 10 0 Vicksburg 94 76 93 76 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 94 75 94 76 / 20 0 40 10 Natchez 94 75 94 75 / 10 0 10 0 Greenville 94 76 94 77 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 94 75 94 76 / 30 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19  117 FXUS64 KOHX 090520 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday - Drier conditions expected next week && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Our active pattern will continue for the next few days. With several embedded shortwaves aloft, slow moving boundaries at the surface, and a juicy airmass, the atmosphere is primed to support multiple rounds of torrential rain. This rain will be falling on saturated soils, leading to flash flooding concerns through the weekend. Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday. SPC has highlighted Middle TN as having a marginal risk (level 1/5) for damaging wind gusts Thursday and Friday, but the environment looks more supportive of gusty winds late Thursday night and into Friday. Thursday: A shortwave trough moving through the area tomorrow afternoon will be our main forcing mechanism for convection during the day. Some guidance is showing drier air upstairs, leading to inverted-V soundings and the potential for an isolated damaging wind gust. The CAMs are not in agreement on coverage tomorrow as the HRRR shows fairly minimal coverage while the NAM3k shows scattered storms. Regardless of coverage, any cell will be capable of producing gusty winds and torrential rain that could lead to flooding issues. Thursday night - Friday night: Concern for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding may continue into Thursday night as an increasingly strong southerly LLJ and shortwave trough traverse the Ohio River Valley. Guidance is not in agreement on coverage, but this could support multiple rounds of messy thunderstorm clusters moving across the area through the night and into Friday. Better shear will be available during this period, and PWATs will soar to 2-2.25"+ (greater than 90th percentile). The HRRR is showing a bowing segment to our north and west starting to fall apart by the time it reaches Middle TN late Thursday night with a second round following shortly after and continuing into Friday morning. The NAM3k, on the other hand, keeps us mostly dry through the night with the bulk of the activity staying north in KY. By the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop with greatest chances east of I-65. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Saturday - Sunday: Aloft, a positively tilted trough across the Midwest will transition from an open wave to a closed low that will reside over TN/KY through the weekend. At the surface, a west/east draped boundary will slowly drift south. These features will support additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Monday - Thursday: Our pattern will change a bit with the start of the new week as a broad upper ridge expands over much of the CONUS. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day but overall the pattern looks much drier than this week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Patchy IFR/LIFR fog through 12z mainly outside of the Nashville area. VFR conditions for all terminals after 13z. Low chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms after 18z. MFVR/IFR possible in any showers or thunderstorms. Light southerly winds under 6 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 74 90 73 / 30 50 70 70 Clarksville 91 74 89 72 / 20 60 70 70 Crossville 83 67 83 67 / 60 50 90 80 Columbia 90 72 89 72 / 30 40 60 60 Cookeville 85 69 84 69 / 50 60 90 80 Jamestown 84 68 83 67 / 50 60 90 90 Lawrenceburg 88 71 87 71 / 40 30 70 60 Murfreesboro 91 72 90 72 / 50 50 70 70 Waverly 90 73 89 72 / 20 50 50 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cahill LONG TERM....Cahill AVIATION.....Seider  053 FXUS66 KHNX 090519 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1019 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir and Lake Isabella through 11 PM PDT Thursday, July 9. Beware of unsettled waters. 2. Slow but steady warmup this week, with widespread Moderate Heat Risk by the weekend and isolated areas of Major Heat Risk. 3. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will create elevated fire risk, particularly in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties. 4. Increased chance for Sierra Nevada thunderstorms late this weekend into next week with monsoonal moisture pushing into our region. 5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure sliding westward over southern and central California from the Four Corners region is contributing to a gradual warming trend that will become more evident in the late week and weekend. Thursday brings a 40 to 50 percent probability for maximum temperatures to exceed 100 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley, especially for the southern and western areas. However, as the high continues to build, these probabilities jump to 80 to 90 percent for the valley areas on Friday and Saturday. For the remainder of the region, temperatures will be around five degrees above season averages going into the weekend. A tighter pressure gradient on the north side of the high will result in gustier conditions especially for the areas in the lee of area mountain ranges and the typical wind prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella, and the Mojave Desert Slopes. Lake Wind Advisories remain in effect for the lake areas listed until 11 PM Thursday. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are expected for San Luis Reservoir and west winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph for Lake Isabella. A drying trend will coincide with the triple-digit heat, with minimum relative humidity on Thursday expected between 12 and 20 percent for the San Joaquin Valley, and between 5 and 10 percent for the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County Desert. These low humidity values will slowly improve through the next few days before a dramatic increase due to monsoonal moisture pushing into the region from the southeast. Between Sunday and Monday, the aforementioned high pressure system will slide eastward over the Great Basin, prompting the upper level flow to shift to the southeast. This will bring warm, moist air to the region, maintaining temperatures in the low 100s for the lower elevations, but resulting in chances for showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Ensemble guidance from the National Blend of Models expresses a 50 to 60 percent probability for at least one-tenth of an inch over 24 hours ending 5 AM Tuesday for the Sierra between Fresno and Tulare Counties. There is also a 20 to 30 percent probability for thunderstorms across this area each day Monday through at least Wednesday as there is little deviation in the synoptic pattern through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. 40 to 50 percent chance for wind gusts to exceed 20 kts at TAF sites in the San Joaquin Valley between 04Z and 07Z Thu. && .FIRE WEATHER... Rising temperatures into this weekend will create drier conditions across the region, with minimum relative humidity values at 12 to 20 percent across the San Joaquin Valley and between 5 and 10 percent for the Sierra Nevada and Kern County Desert Thursday. A gradual improvement will occur over the following days, but largely remain within 5 percent of Thursday's minimums. Stronger wind gusts approaching 40 mph in the Mojave Desert Slopes will cause elevated fire weather conditions when combined with the low RH values. In the late weekend, an influx of monsoonal moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra Nevada, with chances currently sitting at 20 to 30 percent each day beginning Monday. Outside of the mountain areas, temperatures will remain above 100 degrees as flow tracks into the region from the southeast. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ300-332. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy weather.gov/hanford  292 FXUS63 KMQT 090524 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 124 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers continue and/or redevelop this afternoon and evening, becoming most widespread over the southern half of the UP. A couple of stronger storms resulting in gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out over the south-central UP. - Temperatures will remain closer to normal through the mid-week, and start to increase by the weekend. Highs around 90 are becoming more likely Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Early afternoon water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show quasi- zonal flow over the upper Great Lakes with a good deal of coincident moisture, sampled by 12Z KMPX RAOB with a 1.71 in PWAT. Upstream vorticity maxima are located over SW Ontario and the western Dakotas. Subtle NE/SW oriented low-level wind shift boundary is located roughly from western Marquette County through central Gogebic County. It is upon this boundary that we will have to watch for convective redevelopment this afternoon. With weak midlevel lapse rates, any instability will have to be generated from diurnal heating, which is a question mark given the extensive cloud cover across the region. There are some breaks in the cloud cover, and SBCAPE around the WI border region could approach 1000 J/kg should these breaks continue. With strong effective bulk shear around 40 kt, some more organized convection cannot be ruled out from mid- afternoon into the evening, especially for Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta Counties, where strong wind gusts would be the main threat. Given the moist atmosphere and tendency for the low-level boundary to be parallel to the cloud- layer winds, some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, exemplified by the 12Z HREF LPMM showing values in excess of 2" in 6 hours (representing possible local max amounts). Upstream vorticity maxima continue to push through tonight, allowing the low-level boundary and deeper moisture to settle south of the area. While showers and a few storms could linger over Menominee County for the first part of the night, high pressure building from the north will result in dry weather elsewhere with patchy fog possible. Synoptic-scale subsidence is favored for Thu/Fri with seasonable temps. This weekend into early next week, anomalous midlevel anticyclone over the Four Corners region will build into the northern Plains by early next week. Impressive 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam are modeled by early next week over the northern Plains, +2 to +3 sigma as we approach the hottest time of the year. 850 mb temps in the low to possibly mid-20s (C) are similarly impressive. The upshot is growing confidence in a period of highs approaching or exceeding 90F Sunday through Tuesday. It does appear that humidity will be less of an additive factor to the apparent temps than the previous heat spell at the end of June/early July, as low-level trajectories will have more of a westerly/downsloping component off the high plains. Given the lack of deep-layer moisture and positioning downstream of the apex of the ridge, convective potential is fairly low until probably Tuesday, when there are indications of a possible backdoor front/ridge rider. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fog and low stratus developing over the UP as mid and upper level cloud cover moves out of the area is causing IWD and CMX to drop to IFR as of the start of the forecast period. At SAW, ceilings have dropped further to LIFR. LIFR visiblity eventually becomes possible at SAW as well as CMX by 09Z. IFR/LIFR lingers through the rest of the night, then after sunrise, IWD and CMX quickly liftto MVFR and then VFR. Restrictions may linger longer at SAW, but VFR returns by late morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure building over the lake in the wake of a weak frontal boundary will maintain light winds through at least Saturday. Rain showers may lead to areas of fog through at least Thursday morning. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out this evening, especially closer to the shoreline, but overall potential is low. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-243-244-263>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thompson AVIATION...LC MARINE...Thompson  290 FXUS64 KMRX 090523 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 123 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 119 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day. - Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning. - A wet pattern will likely be in place this weekend and may pose a more widespread flooding threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Currently the synoptic pattern consist of weak ridging atop the far southeastern CONUS with an upper low slowly meandering into the mid- Mississippi River Valley. Additionally, a diffuse stationary boundary can be noted on the north and western fringes of the CWA. Isolated to scattered convection has developed in typical summer- time diurnal fashion, and will continue throughout this afternoon and evening. Best coverage is generally expected in vicinity of higher terrain, with slightly lesser chances across valley locations. Latest model derived soundings from CAMs paint MLCAPE between 1000- 2000 J/kg with PWAT values 1.5 to 1.8 inches. The fairly moist profiles are between the 75th and 90th percentiles per KBNA sounding climatology and limit DCAPE values to 400-700 J/kg. The lower DCAPE values will help to limit downburst potential but the anomalous moisture availability and LCL-EL mean wind nearly parallel to the boundary could lead to isolated flooding with any training convection. Overall, a gusty winds and localized flooding the main concerns. The aforementioned upper low will continue to translate east Thursday with the surface boundary expected to be draped west to east just to our south. The thermodynamic environment will remain fairly persistent, along with the primary hazards of gusty winds and localized flooding with the strongest activity. As we transition into Friday and continue into the weekend, an upper level trough will amplify over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Region. Clusters of storms may develop beneath slightly enhanced mid to upper level flow Friday afternoon. GFS soundings depict an elevated mixed layer across southern portions of the forecast area during this time, which could enhance the potential for a few strong to severe gusts making it to the surface. Additionally, both ensemble and deterministic guidance agree that PWAT values will increase to just north of two inches Friday onward. Guidance hints that a boundary will be draping towards the area late Friday into Saturday and could result in a prolonged period with showers and storms tapping into the anomalous PWATs. Flash flooding threat likely to continue, if not increase, into the weekend. Though, the expected location of the greatest axis of precip still remains a little fuzzy. A Flood Watch may be needed with future forecast packages. The front will work south of the region with decreasing chances of precip as we head into the new work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 119 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Rain has largely exited the area with lower clouds and patchy being what to watch into the early morning hours. Currently, the best chances for MVFR ceilings are at TYS and TRI with TRI having the best chance for fog or IFR ceilings. CHA is expected to see clouds at or below 3,000 feet, but ceilings will be less common at that level. TRI will be slowest to improve back to VFR, potentially not until the early afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected again with slightly better coverage than yesterday. PROB30s were introduced at all 3 sites since there are fairly equal chances at each. && .PRELIMINARYPOINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 72 88 / 30 80 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 71 85 / 60 90 70 90 Oak Ridge, TN 70 86 70 85 / 60 90 70 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 84 67 81 / 60 90 90 100 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS AVIATION...BW  309 FXUS65 KBOI 090524 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1124 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot with breezy afternoon winds through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 126 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 Thunderstorms got off to an early start today with the first strike hitting before 10AM this morning. Activity will continue into the early evening bringing the potential for local wind gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest outflow winds will be focused east of Hwy 51 and Mountain Home and south of Hwy 20 out to Fairfield. It's not unreasonable that a westward propagating outflow extends further into the Treasure Valley this evening though it is going to be a race between thunderstorm outflows and an evening wind push from the northwest. For now, expect the northwest winds to win the race for most of the Treasure Valley. These winds will first push through SE Oregon counties early this evening, bringing gusts 30 to 40 mph in the typically winder locations. A quieter hot and dry pattern settles in after this evening. High temperatures on Thursday are a few degrees cooler than today with northwest winds ramping up in the afternoon. The heat builds on Friday as an upper high over the Desert SW expands northward. This will put lower elevations near 100 and mountain valleys near 90. Winds will be lighter at lower elevations as southwest flow aloft brings breezy winds to higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 126 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 Hot temperatures will persist throughout the long-term period, with the well-advertised ridge shifting east over the Rockies/High Plains. this will bring lower elevation temperatures in the upper-90s and around triple digits. Saturday appears to be the hottest day of the period, with temperatures throughout lower elevations near 100 degrees and localized areas near 105 degrees for daytime highs. Overnight lows will generally stay 5-10 degrees above normal as well. Come Monday, the signal for a monsoonal push remains, with ensemble guidance continuing to carry precipitable water values around the 95th percentile of climatology. This moisture will help reintroduce thunderstorms into the forecast come Monday and beyond, especially over higher terrain. With that moisture, flash flooding could be a concern, especially over recent burn scars. Another aspect will be the lightning over dry fuels after a long stretch of hot and dry conditions. The antecedent dry conditions combined with lightning potential increases the concern of new fire starts, especially if initial storms take on a dry posture. Both of these hazards will need to be monitored in the days to come. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1123 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 VFR. Localized terrain obstruction from wildfire smoke. High density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds: W-NW 5- 15 kt, with gusts 20-25 kt from KMUO to KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-W 5-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude this week due to heat. Foothills obscured in smoke at times from nearby fires. Surface winds: W-NW 8- 13 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....NF  391 FXUS66 KMFR 090527 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1027 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Typical summer weather for the remainder of the week: seasonable temperatures and humidities, gusty afternoon winds. * Pattern amplifies Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-30 mph) Friday- Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring heightened fire weather concerns (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * Thunderstorm pattern early next week. Best chances east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. DISCUSSION...Skies are clear across the area today, except for a few residual marine layer clouds along the coast, and some developing cumulus fields beginning to pop up over the higher terrain of the Cascades and East Side. Westerly flow will prevail today into Thursday under a mostly zonal flow pattern with flat high pressure to the south and a broad trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more stable air mass with thunderstorm potential remaining well east of the area. A stray shower (5% chance) can't be ruled out from the cumulus buildups today, but chances are very low. A dry front will pass through the region today. This will bring another day of enhanced afternoon breezes as well as a general cooling trend in afternoon temperatures today that will persist into the weekend. Instead of temperatures being 8 to 10 degrees above normal like recent days, high temperatures through the weekend will hover within a few degrees of normal, equating to low 90s West/upper 80s East. With this general cool down, we'll see an uptick in afternoon humidities, so despite the enhanced afternoon winds, fire weather concerns will be somewhat mitigated by the slightly cooler temperatures. The pattern transitions on Friday with high pressure to the south moving eastward into the Great Basin region, then amplifying on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward Friday into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly again and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tighter gradients. This pattern will bring a round of strong, gusty winds to the region Friday and Saturday when gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 30 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions could be possible east of the Cascades Friday and Saturday, most widespread on Saturday. See the fire discussion below for more information. Low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, and this will ease winds some compared to Saturday, but conditions will still be quite breezy. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough. Daytime humidities will trend slightly upward and the flow will turn more southerly heading into the early part of next week. This pattern will bear watching for thunderstorm potential as south to southwesterly flow could push some monsoonal moisture into the region. While this is still 5 to 7 days out and plenty of time for details to change between now and then, it currently looks like we'll skate by on Sunday without any convective activity. Monday through Wednesday, however, there could be enough moisture and instability in the region for thunderstorm activity. Given that the region is on the western periphery of that strong high pressure, it currently looks like the best chances would be across eastern areas, though it's worth noting that current guidance shows enough moisture across the West Side for thunderstorm development potentially on Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates as models hone in on additional details. && .AVIATION (06Z TAFs)... VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with the one exception along/near the coast. Low clouds are expected to develop late tonight from near Cape Blanco north (including KOTH) and from near Brookings southward. Guidance supports IFR conditions developing at North Bend (KOTH) beginning around 09-10z, with clearing around 15-16z. Gusty winds are expected again tomorrow afternoon and evening at area TAF sites. && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, July 8, 2026...The latest models have trended towards a stronger thermal trough than previously expected. Now, gusty winds and steep wind-driven seas are expected to spread to all of the southern Oregon waters by this evening, and very steep seas will develop south of Gold Beach. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but could strengthen again late weekend with gusty north winds and steep seas. && .FIRE WEATHER (Updated at 100 PM Wednesday, July 8th)... This week will be noted by warm seasonable temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy afternoon wind speeds. This will ultimately result in elevated fire weather conditions starting tomorrow (Thurs). The areas of concern for tomorrow are both the Rogue and Illinois valleys, northern California, and eastside areas. This threat will further increase to near critical or critical fire weather conditions by Friday for eastside areas (Modoc, Klamath, and Lake counties). The threat of critical fire weather conditions will linger through the weekend. Saturday is currently the higher potential for critical fire weather conditions as well as the larger extent of areas with low RH and enhanced breezes, and these areas include eastside areas for both Oregon and northern California (Klamath, Lake, eastern Siskiyou, and Modoc counties). Saturday has lower RH values through the afternoon compared to Friday, but both days will be breezy with gusts around 30-35 mph (potentially 40mph in the windier places). Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lesser end of the spectrum. Regardless, Friday through Sunday will likely experience elevated to critical fire weather conditions with Red Flag Warnings likely developing through this stretch. In the extended forecast, early to middle of next week, we are seeing a signal for thunderstorms with increasing confidence over the last 24 hours. Monsoonal moisture will increase through this stretch, so storms may be on the wetter side; however, lightning over dry fuels will be a concern given our continued stretch of warm and dry weather. At this time, Wednesday has the higher potential for abundant lightning, but we could see thunderstorm activity Monday through Wednesday. Models are trying to develop a tropical storm off the coast of Baja California this weekend which could increase the monsoonal moisture pattern into the forecast area early to middle of next week. -Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for ORZ624. CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warninguntil 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  502 FXUS64 KLCH 090530 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower activity is expected to decrease today and tomorrow as an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. - A weakness redevelops over the weekend along with deeper tropical like moisture helping to increase convection. - Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.) && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Current conditions remain fairly average and humid, with temps in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints a few degrees shy of there. At the surface, the high pressure over the area / SE will maintain light southerly to calm flow for the next several days. Aloft, the upper weakness will continue to break down as the ridges off the CA and FL coasts both shift further into the CONUS. While this will not completely inhibit our run of the mill seabreeze / diurnally driven showers and storms, it will help in stopping it from being as widespread as in days previous. Going into the weekend, we will see a return in convection as the upper ridge loses its influence over the area, allowing for a weak trough and frontal boundary to move southward. Tropical moisture will become focused across the Gulf Coast region, with PWATs nearing or exceeding the 90th percentile. Those things in conjunction with diurnal processes will allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms from this weekend into the end of this forecast cycle. Albeit warm, temperatures over the next few days will only be a few degrees above their climatological averages. With the expected rain and cloud cover this weekend, MaxTs will likely be kept in check. The aforementioned boundary is a front only by name, as it will make no noticeable difference to temps or dewpoints. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mostly VFR conditions ongoing and expected to prevail for most of this TAF cycle with exception to areas of patchy fog overnight. This afternoon and evening the chances of showers and storms will be a bit more limited, with lower confidence in coverage. && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Surface high pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf through the week. This will keep a light south to southwest flow and low seas in place. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible each day, with coverage increasing a bit by the late weekend into early next week as another weakness develops aloft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 No fire weather concerns at this time. Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible in the afternoon to early evening along the sea breeze today and tomorrow, however coverage will be limited as an upper ridge builds in. Higher rain chances return this weekend. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87 AVIATION...87  714 FXUS61 KGYX 090532 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 132 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Heat and humidity returns today. It is only expected to last through Friday before temperatures return to more seasonable readings. 2. As a cold front approaches the region showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours today and Friday. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with strong wind gusts the most likely hazard. 3. Mostly dry with seasonable temperatures this weekend with a warming trend possible during the early to middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Deep southwesterly flow will draw and heat and humidity back north today. There has not been much change in modeling since the last update, with guidance still favoring 850 mb temps in the +16 to +18C range. This is supportive of upper 80s to near 90 high temps. Southwesterly downsloping may allow the Merrimack Valley to tack on a couple extra degrees. Couple that with the humidity and apparent temps will be in the mid 60s from ASH/MHT eastward to the Seacoast. The Heat Advisory area looks good for now. Encroaching cloud cover will limit the northward extent of the heat. This will be even more true of Fri. Mid level temps will get knocked back a degree or two, and as a result high temps will be more like the mid to upper 80s. Especially with the dewpoints remaining high, it will will still feel pretty steamy, but I do not anticipate the need for an additional Heat Advisory at this time. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible thru Fri as the front slowly crosses the region. The thermodynamic environment will be fairly marginal, with weaker lapse rates aloft. However we will attempt to make up for that with the high heat and humidity south of the front. Bulk shear today should be at least on the order of 25 kt, and so any storm that does get going may stay organized. Largely unidirectional winds and drying aloft will support gusty to damaging wind as the primary hazard. At this time SPC only has a small portion of Coos County in the marginal risk for severe storms, but I could see that getting expanded south and eastward. Similarly on Fri the threat will push farther south as the front continues to sag into the area. Overall the forecast soundings Fri have more moisture, so we can add torrential rainfall as another hazard. Once again marginal CAPE and shear profile will support isolated strong to severe storms. Wind remains the primary storm hazard. On both days various machine learning convective guidance indicates marginal risk of severe weather. So I could see the new Day 2 severe weather outlook including a marginal risk in the, or at the very least the need to be prepared for stronger storms Fri afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Surface high pressure will build over New England this weekend, allowing for warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions. A few diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out though, especially on Saturday as an H5 s/wv trof slides across the region. A long wave H5 ridge axis will gradually move east for the early to middle part of next week. Warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected on Monday and Tuesday before an approaching frontal boundary and H5 s/wv trof moves towards the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, possibly resulting in showers and thunderstorms. The timing of this trof and front will play a large role in temperatures as well as the timing of greatest rain chances for the middle to latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions continue through this afternoon with LEB and HIE possible seeing localized IFR conditions after midnight as valley fog develops again tonight. This is more or less a persistence based forecast with a slight delay in timing due to drier conditions. Any valley fog that forms should clear out quickly after sunrise with the prevailing condition turning back to VFR. Some TEMPO MVFR is possible in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but confidence is too low to add to TAFs at this time. As the front gets closer there will be a growing threat for marine fog and stratus, especially towards Fri morning. Outlook: Friday: VFR conditions expected to prevail over most of the area. IFR or lower possible in fog/stratus over the Midcoast. Local MVFR or lower possible in showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon across the southern half of the area. Saturday-Sunday Night: Mainly VFR conditions expected. TEMPO restrictions are possible Saturday PM within possible SHRA/-TSRA. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Areas of fog likely begin to develop tonight and continue thru Fri until the front crosses the waters. Some strong thunderstorms are possible Fri afternoon over the nearshore waters. Outlook: A brief period of SCA conditions are possible Monday evening outside of the bays with S wind gusts up to 25 kts and seas of 3-5 ft. Otherwise, winds and seas will largely remain below SCA criteria through early next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NHZ012-013. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Legro/Tubbs AVIATION...Legro/Tubbs MARINE...Legro/Tubbs  762 FXUS63 KARX 090533 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1233 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storm are possible this afternoon, mainly east of the Mississippi River. - Cooler weather to end the week with highs staying in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Warmer weather returns this weekend and continues next week as highs get in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today: Fog Early this Morning, Scattered Showers and Storms This Afternoon With the rain that fell and the subsidence behind the front that moved through, foggy conditions may occur early this morning. If skies clear out a little more then their could also be localized areas of dense fog in some locations. Northwest flow aloft along with soundings suggesting around 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support scattered showers and storms this afternoon. With weak shear in place for this afternoon, these storms will struggle to get going. East of the Mississippi River has the best chance at seeing a shower or storm. The main threat with these storms that can get going and stay organized a for a period of time would be very localized rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5" due to slower storm motion. Friday-Next Week: Cooler End to the Week with Warmer and Drier Conditions Next Week Beginning on Friday, a ridge builds into the Upper Midwest. This will limit any rainfall chances for much of next week. Temperatures get into the upper 80s to low 90s across the CWA with the warmest temperatures west of the Mississippi River. At the surface the region will be just to the east of the high pressure center which could temper our temperatures compared to the High Plains where they will be in good southerly flow and west of the high pressure center. Confidence is high on the ridge staying overhead through midweek. Afterwards is where the uncertainty begins. Ensembles and deterministic guidance show the ridge breaking down at some point and bringing the storm path more in line with the Upper Midwest, however the main difference is when this occurs. The longer the ridge stays amplified and over our area, the less likely we see convection in our region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 IFR low-stratus and potentially fog is expected to continue developing throughout the overnight across much of the local area. This will likely persist throughout the overnight and into the morning before diurnal mixing quickly mixes out fog and low-stratus giving way to VFR conditions by afternoon. One thing we will need to watch is if any 1/4SM can develop as both the GLAMP and HREF hint some degree of a footprint for it in southeast MN and portions of west-central WI where clearing in the anvil shield from earlier thunderstorms may take place. Opted not to include in the KRST TAF for now but will amend to include 1/4SM fog if trends favor this. Otherwise, some isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible east of the Mississippi River this afternoon, however the probability of these reaching KLSE was too low (10% chance) to include any mention at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 After a swath of 3 to 5" fell in portions of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa and a more localized area of 5 to 7" across southern Mower County, the Cedar River is pronged to be above flood stage over the next few days as the runoff fills into the River. Little to no more rain is expected over the next few days. The lone exception is this afternoon as scattered showers and storms are possible. There is a localized possibility of 0.5 to 1.5" occurring where a storm occurs. East of the Mississippi River hasthe best chance at seeing a shower or storm. Given the slow storm motions, these storms could linger over a given location. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Naylor HYDROLOGY...Cecava  691 FXUS63 KGID 090532 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1232 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms, a few severe, is expected this evening between mainly 6PM and 3AM. Hail up to the size of half dollars with wind gusts up to near 70MPH will be possible within the strongest storms. - A few more scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night for mainly a few western and southern portions of the area. Hail up to the size of golfballs with wind gusts up to near 60MPH may be possible. - Though a small 10-30% storm chance returns Friday night, the rest of the 7-day forecast period will be favored to remain dry (10-40% chance of >0.1" of precipitation) - Temperatures are expected to warm up over the weekend with at least a 4+ day streak of 90+ degree highs expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight and Thursday... A cold front, currently draped across northern Nebraska, will later be expected to dip southward into much of south central Nebraska this evening and later on into north central Kansas overnight. A few storms will be expected to fire up along this front between mainly 6PM and 3AM as the front drifts southward. In addition, a cluster of scattered storms (recently observed cumulus expanding across northeast Colorado) will later be expected to roll in from off the High Plains. These storms will possibly merge with activity developing along the cold front, expanding the coverage of and extending the time of lingering storms through the early morning hours of Thursday. The latest high-resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) guidance has recently backed precipitation potential off by around 20% with a now a more broad range forecast of 30-70% PoPs across the area for tonight. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST models have come in a bit drier (more scattered storm coverage) and continue to diverge on when and where the best storm potential will come. The HRRR is more aggressive with the earlier convection occurring along the cold front between mainly 5PM and midnight. As result, the HRRR keeps the bulk of the storms mainly north of I-80. The NAMNEST on the other hand is more aggressive with the overnight convection rolling in from the high plains. As result, it keeps a majority of the storms concentrated south of I-80 and later in the night (2-8AM). In reality, the best scenario tonight would likely be a combination of the two scenarios where a few storms do initially form along the front and approach later in the night from the west. Given somewhat favorable conditions for thunderstorm maintenance (1,500-2,5000J/kg of MUCAPE with 25-40kts of bulk shear), it is more than reasonable to suspect that a few of these storms would be able to take on some strong to severe characteristics. Though hail up to the size of half dollars may be possible, the hail threat will mainly fall within the initial storms firing up along the front. The main severe threat tonight, however, will likely be the potential for gusty winds up to near 70MPH, especially within storms racing in from the west. The main uncertainty for severe weather this evening will be if the storms firing along the front earlier in the evening/night inhibit the severe potential for the later storms coming in from the west. There is somewhat of a concern if the convection along the front may undercut the severe threat overnight to a degree, though the presence of a steady 20-30kts low-level jet across north central Kansas may also play a small role. In addition, the merging of these two storms clusters could create an expansive area of heavy downpours. The possibility of 1" per hour rainfall rates (1.5-1.8" PWAT values) mixed in with the potential for multiplewaves of thunderstorm activity could bring meaningful precipitation amounts (up to 1-2+") to a handful of locations (10- 20% of the coverage area). The Weather Prediction Center has also introduced a slight risk of excessive rainfall (15-40% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point) to the full area. Given the overall decrease in expected storm coverage, the flash flood potential has also overall decreased some as well. Beyond the precipitation chances tonight, the light to steady surface winds (5-15MPH) will back from the southerly directions this afternoon to an easterly one overnight. Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will drop highs to the mid 80s to low 90s for Thursday. Though the potential for severe weather returns Thursday night (Marginal risk for western and southern portions of the area), the overall storm coverage may likely be more isolated and concentrated towards far west/south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A few storms, again racing out from off the High Plains just after 10PM, will have to potential to clip a few western/southern portions of the area. These storms, given the time of night, will probably be on a downward trend, leading us to speculate that the severe threat should mostly be more isolated rather than widespread. Friday into Next Week... Though one final low-end chance for storms does lie Friday night (10- 30% chances), the main story Friday into next week will be the heat. Highs Friday through the middle of next week will begin a gradual climb from the mid to upper 80s to the low to mid 90s. This warm up will come as a massive ridge is favored to form across much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions starting on Saturday. This ridging pattern is in good agreement within the long-range ensembles to stick around for most if not all of next week (>80% confidence). The presence of this massive ridge should bring warm, subsiding air to the region that will work to thwart off most of the precipitation potential next week. (The LREF {Long Range Ensemble Forecast} only shows a 10-40% chance for at least 0.1" of precipitation through the week). The main uncertainty at this time will be for how substantial the warmup will become (will highs next week peak in the upper 90s or low 100s?). What does look almost certain will be the presence of a streak of 90+ degree days. The only forecast element that could keep such a streak from taking place would be from a rogue daytime thunderstorm or excessive cloud cover that manages to peak in (not very likely to occur underneath such pattern). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR Ceilings possible ~10-15z, otherwise VFR conditions expected during TAF period. SCT-BKN stratus will build over the area through sunrise. Some of this stratus may fall to MVFR, though the duration at KGRI/KEAR is uncertain. Due to the scattered nature of MVFR status, a TEMPO group was used to indicate this potential. Stratus clears by the mid-late morning hours, first at KEAR then KGRI, with high level clouds possible through the end of the TAF period. Light and variable winds become northerly, shifting the northeast Thursday morning, then to the east Thursday evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Davis  666 FXUS64 KSHV 090531 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1231 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Elevated afternoon dew points together with highs in the low to middle 90s will result in heat indices above 105 degrees for portions of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from noon through 8 PM. - Quiet and dry weather will continue through the end of the week, with areawide highs in the low to middle 90s. - Showers and storms are expected to return this weekend north and east, likely to continue into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 After a prolonged unsettled and challenging pattern lately, the ArkLaTex looks to remain dry and quiet today and through the end of this work week. Without rain cooling effects, areawide heat will prevail as highs take aim at the lower to middle 90s. Guidance has lately underestimated dew points across our northwestern quadrant, and accounting for recent patterns, these seasonal temperatures will result in heat indices of 105 degrees or greater for several hours this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for the impacted counties from noon through 8 PM today. Precautions should be taken to limit outdoor exposure, stay hydrated, and have access to air conditioning. As this week draws to a close, the ArkLaTex will see little in the way of upper level steering in the wake of this week's trough, while upper level ridging amplifies to our west. Friday looks to remain mostly dry across the region, though some afternoon sea breeze driven convection may just barely manage to make it into our southernmost zones. Otherwise, expect more highs in the middle 90s, and another round of lows in the middle to upper 70s. By early Saturday into Sunday, ridging over the western CONUS will amplify, forming a closed high over the Four Corners region. Recent solutions are suggesting that as this ridge amplifies, an emerging trough over the Midwest will be tilted as it gradually stalls over the Appalachians. The westward extend of latitudinal amplification of this trough will determine ArkLaTex weather this weekend and into early next week. The latest consensus indicates that the trough will provide forcing upon which moisture impulses will develop and result in an unsettled pattern for the weekend and into early next week, with areawide rainfall chances at times, and the most likely repeated impacts across our northern and eastern zones. At this point, highs in the 90s look to remain entrenched in place, with the only potential exception being upper 80s in southern Arkansas with repeated rainfall and cloud cover. Lows will continue in the 70s throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Quickly decaying convection across SC AR attm looks like it will miss our ELD terminal and should slide just east of our MLU terminal assuming it will hold together. Otherwise, does not look like we will see overnight convection impacting any of our airspace so we should remain VFR overnight areawide. The only fly in the ointment so to speak would be patchy MVFR VSBYS at the LKF, MLU or ELD terminals just prior to sunrise. Did account for this possibility with the 06z TAF package. Otherwise, we should see a growing cu field during the day Thursday but moisture does not appear sufficient enough to support much in the way of any sustained low level ceilings through the day Thursday. Low level pressure gradient is a little tighter than in previous days so did allow for some 16- 20kt gusts by mid morning and continuing through the day at the TYR and GGG terminals. Otherwise look for mostly SSW to S winds with speeds generally near 10kts post sunrise on Thursday. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 96 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 96 77 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 95 75 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 97 77 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 95 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 97 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 96 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 96 76 95 77 / 0 0 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059-070. LA...None. OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...13  795 FXUS61 KCAR 090534 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 134 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Models continue to indicate near surface smoke mixing down over the north this afternoon, with another surge on Friday. Confidence remains too low regarding visibility reductions so have opted not to include in forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wildfire smoke may be able to mix down to the surface over the north this afternoon through Friday. 2) Increasing heat and humidity with a chance of thunderstorms today and Friday. 3) Temperatures increase early next week before the next system approaches mid week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wildfire smoke may be able to mix down to the surface over the north this afternoon through Friday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A pre-frontal trough currently along the St. Lawrence will move through the region today. As it pushes south thru the area expect that there should be enough mixing to allow smoke to mix down to the surface over nrn Aroostook this afternoon, gradually spreading further south during the overnight hours based on the latest HRRR, RRFS and Canadian. The main cold front will move through tonight, allowing more smoke to mix toward the surface on Friday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity with a chance of thunderstorms today and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Accompanying the pre-frontal trough will be heat and humidity with showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Light showers will be moving across the north early this morning and with pre- frontal trough likely to be near central areas this afternoon, instability will be present along and south of the boundary. At this time it appears the best chance for storms will exist from the Central Highlands over into the Upper Penobscot Valley this afternoon and evening. This boundary will gradually wash out this evening with the main cold front dropping out of Canada tonight. Showers move over the area tonight ahead of the front with most of the thunder confined over Downeast early tonight with elevated instability present. Cannot rule out another opportunity for storms along the coast Friday afternoon but this will depend on timing of fropa. KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures increase early next week before the next system approaches mid week. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in behind the departing front this weekend, bringing seasonable temperatures and clear skies. A ridge begins to move into the area on Sunday, increasing temperatures for the first part of the week. Temperatures are expected to be about 5-10 degrees above average, though increased humidity is not expected. Another trough approaches mid week which could bring some precipitation starting in the north late Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12z this morning...Mainly VFR. Outside chance of MVFR vsbys at BHB in patchy fog between 08 and 11z this morning. S winds 5kts. Today...Mainly VFR. FVE may drop to MVFR cigs between 08-14z this morning before improving to VFR. Cannot rule out chance for -tsra at HUL and BGR and have included PROB30 from 19-01z this afternoon for potential. Thunder looks to be isolated at this time. SSW winds 5- 10kts, becoming WNW this afternoon. Tonight...VFR/MVFR in rain showers with very isolated -tsra Downeast terminals this evening. Light and variable winds. Friday...VFR/MVFR in showers and -tsra, especially BGR and BHB. NW winds 5-15kts. Friday Night-Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts, gusts to 20 kt. An afternoon sea breeze could produce S winds 5-10 kt at BHB. Saturday Night-Sunday...VFR. N-NW winds around 5kt. An afternoon sea breeze could produce S winds 5-10 kt at BHB. SundayNight...VFR. Light and variable winds. Monday...VFR except possible MVFR in any showers/tstms at northern terminals late Monday. SW winds 5 to 10 kts. && .MARINE... Winds remain aob 25kts all waters through Friday. Seas remain below 5ft all waters before increasing to 5-6 feet from 25-60NM this evening through Friday morning. Seas then diminish to between 2-4 feet through Friday. Patchy fog may reduce visibility this morning and again late tonight. Winds/seas below SCA conditions this weekend and Monday with just some passing clouds. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/JMM AVIATION...21/JMM  806 FXUS63 KILX 090534 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will bring a risk for damaging wind gusts on Thursday afternoon and evening, with the greatest chances for damaging winds south of I-72. - Periods of heavy rainfall will be a concern from Thursday afternoon through Saturday. The greatest concern for heavy rainfall and flooding potential will also be south of I-72, where there is a 20-30% chance of rainfall exceeding 2 inches. - Potential exists for extreme heat around the middle of next week, though some uncertainty remains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ** THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY ** An unstable airmass with MLCAPE perhaps in excess of 2000 J/kg will reside south of an approaching frontal boundary on Thursday afternoon. It is anticipated that one or more MCVs emanating from overnight convective activity in the central Plains will serve as forcing mechanisms to help initiate convection on Thursday afternoon in central/southeast Illinois. Though shear even into Thursday morning may be on the weak side, the MCV(s) should at least locally enhance 0-6 km shear by Thursday afternoon/evening. In addition, forecast DCAPE values are in excess of 1100-1200 J/kg, particularly south of I-72 where the most likely track of an MCV is. All of these factors together indicate elevated damaging wind potential particularly south of I-72, with an SPC Level 2 severe risk there. It is worth noting that there is some variability concerning the path/development of potential MCVs, with greater convective development perhaps occuring north or south of the most likely track. ** HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY - SATURDAY ** On Thursday, multiple model solutions depict precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches across much of central and southeast Illinois. Steering flow appears to be oriented perpendicular to the initial wave of rainfall Thursday afternoon, but a second wave perhaps associated with a second MCV later in the evening/overnight may provide more of a heavy rain threat with training elements becoming more likely. The path of the MCV(s) on Thursday, as well as associated convective development Thursday afternoon/evening, will be determining factors in how far south the effective frontal boundary pushes going into Friday. Should that boundary become stalled at some point, the heavy rain threat will increase further. Chances of greater than 2 inches of rainfall at any given point near and south of I-72 through Saturday night currently are in the 20-30% range. Isolated totals in excess of 4-5 inches are not outside the realm of possibility, though confidence is low regarding where these isolated high totals may be most likely. ** MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ** Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the pattern for next week. Most solutions depict a strong 500 mb ridge over the central and northern Plains, with variability regarding how far east the center of that ridge spreads and to what degree the ridge influences weather over central and southeast Illinois. A trough centered near Hudson Bay will also have the potential to provide some moderating influence to the ridge, as well as a chance for storms in northwest flow. WPC cluster algorithm for Thu Jul 16 currently shows about 20% of global solutions with the stronger Hudson Bay trough, with about 80% of solutions having a stronger central Plains ridge and/or a weaker trough to the northwest. CPC has the Midwest in a slight-moderate risk for extreme high temperatures during this time period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A modest SSW breeze less than 10 kt and VFR conditions will prevail overnight underthe influence of a departing ridge. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across central Illinois mid to late Thursday afternoon into the evening. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...AAT DISCUSSION...AAT AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  820 FXUS65 KFGZ 090534 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1034 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue over portions of eastern Arizona Thursday and Friday. Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up this weekend and into next week with increasing storm chances. Dangerous heat is also expected through the period for portions of northern Arizona, including Glen and Marble Canyons and the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon. && .DISCUSSION...The ridge that has been driving the influx of moisture into northern AZ has flattened and is retrograding to the west. This will begin to introduce a drier westerly flow aloft, however plenty of moisture still lingers across the area. Today remains a fairly similar setup to yesterday, with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms currently firing over eastern AZ. Storms intensity is just a little higher than previous days, though the primary hazards from storms remain gusty outflow winds, lightning, and small hail. Localized downpours will also lead to a low risk for flash flooding over sensitive areas (burn scars). By Thursday and Friday, the flattened ridge establishes to our west. This will push most of the convective activity to our south under drier northwest flow, though some storms will likely hang around the White Mountains each day. By the weekend, the ridge is forecast to strengthen and rapidly shift to our northeast. This would be a favorable flow pattern for the North American Monsoon. The ensemble mean PW approaches the 90th percentile for this time of year by Monday. The current forecast calls for precipitation chances ramping up on Sunday-Monday with the best coverage of storms along/south of the Mogollon Rim. Stay tuned for further updates on this period! Heat will also be a concern through the week with above normal July temperatures forecasted each day. The Extreme Heat Warning for the Grand Canyon below 4000 ft has been extended through Sunday, with temperatures in excess of 110 degrees expected each day at Phantom Ranch. An Extreme Heat Warning has also been issued for Marble and Glen Canyons on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures forecasted to reach moderate-extreme HeatRisk. && .AVIATION...Thursday 09/06Z through Friday 10/06Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA and areas of gusty outflow winds through around 08Z in eastern Arizona with otherwise dry conditions overnight. Brief MVFR and gusty/erratic winds possible in ISOLD SHRA/TSRA 18Z Thursday into the early evening, from the White Mtns region up to KINW and KSJN. Winds SW-W 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts after 18Z Thursday through early evening. OUTLOOK...Friday 10/06Z through Sunday 12/06Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD storms possible around the White Mtns Friday, spreading NW to around KFLG by Saturday afternoon. Winds SW-W 10-20 kts Friday and 5-15 kts Saturday. Light and VRB or terrain driven wind during the overnight periods. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Hot and mainly dry conditions, aside from isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon in the White Mountains. Winds west/southwest 10-20 mph each day. Saturday through Monday...Hot, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Wetting rains possible in any stronger storm. Winds light and variable Saturday, becoming south/southeast 5- 15 mph on Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Saturday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  875 FXUS63 KDVN 090536 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1236 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms late this evening for areas north of a line from Belle Plaine IA to Platteville WI. The main hazards will be damaging winds and heavy rain. - Additional storms are likely Thursday and Friday, with heavy downpours and isolated severe possible. - Above normal temperatures next week, with a prolonged period of heat becoming more likely. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current radar and satellite observations show areas of convection along a broken line from northeast NE to west-central WI. These storms will be much of the story for tonight. As the shortwave moves east, storms are expected to grow upscale into a line and move southeast, reaching the Highway 20 and I-380 corridors around 9-10 PM. However, the question is whether they will decay or continue. While CAPE will be sufficient to sustain any updrafts at 1500-2000 J/kg, low lapse rates and limited shear will will be limiting factors. Guidance still remains quite mixed, with the 12Z REFS favoring storms continuing while the 12Z HREF has the storms decay as they reach eastern Iowa. If storms are able to maintain themselves, there is potential for strong to severe storms. This appears most likely for areas north of a line from Belle Plaine IA to Platteville WI. Damaging winds will be the primary severe threat due to DCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Heavy rain will also be possible, which may pose a flash flooding threat, especially in areas that received heavy rain last week. As a result, both SPC and WPC have a Slight/Level 2 risk for severe storms and excessive rainfall for tonight north of a line from Belle Plaine IA to Platteville WI. Additional storm chances are in store for Thursday as a boundary moves southward across the region. A similar environment to today will be in place with moderate instability, low lapse rates, and 15- 25 kts of shear, as well as the potential for lingering showers and clouds from overnight. Thunderstorms will be possible as the boundary passes through, but the threat of strong to severe storms will be low. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday... A final shortwave on Friday will bring the last near-term chances for rainfall. Atmospheric moisture will be greatest along and south of Interstate 80, with guidance showing up to 1.5 inch PWATs and dewpoints in the low 70s. Showers and storms are likely, though severe storms are not expected due to marginal deep layer shear. However, if a convectively augmented MCV were to take place upstream enhancing the wind field, then some severe storms would be possible. Saturday and beyond... Model guidance continues to show a large anomalous upper ridge (00z NAEFS/ENS 2.0 to 2.8 sigma from their ensemble mean) building into the central CONUS. In fact, the 00z GEFS/ENS/GEPS has this ridge encompassing most of the lower 48 by 12z Tuesday with its center not that far away from the local area. As a result, a prolonged period of dry conditions, above normal temps, and building heat is likely. Factoring in evapotranspiration of maturing crops, more heat headlines may be needed for at least a portion of the area. Apparent T probabilities of 95 degrees or higher off the LREF (100 member ensemble of the GEFS/ENS/GEPS) are in the 30-50% range Tuesday-Thursday. If that were not enough, the latest CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook has a Moderate (40-60%) risk of extreme heat for most of the CWA July 16th-18th. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Decaying showers and isolated thunderstorms to push east over eastern IA over the next 1-3 hrs. Added a TEMPO at MLI for -TSRA and gusty winds around 30kts. Outside of any shower/storm activity, VFR conditions are expected with light and variable wind. Showers and isolated thunder over central IA to slowly track east and may reach CID prior to sunrise. Added PROB30 mention for this possibility and will continue to monitor trends for any amendments. Behind this round, model soundings and layer RH progs show MVFR cigs at DBQ through early afternoon, with low VFR further south. Depending on amount of clouds, additional showers/storms are possible primarily east and southeast of the terminals. However, some widely scattered activity as suggested by hi-res models is not out of the question. Confidence is too low to include any mention at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ellingworth LONG TERM...Ellingworth/Gross AVIATION...Gross  107 FXUS62 KMLB 090541 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 141 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 729 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2206 - A building HeatRisk is expected into late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, please visit heat.gov. - Building dry air will reduce rain chances through the end of the work-week, though increasing shower and lightning storm chances return this weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2206 Current-Thursday...Drier air gradually filters into the area leading to below normal diurnal (ISOLD-WDLY SCT) rain chances (10-30%) during this period. Strengthening mid-level ridging will promote subsidence across the area. Light/variable morning flow will transition onshore at the coast in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Limited moisture, daytime heating, and boundary collisions will be the main factors in any shower/storm development. Storm steering will be light (out of S/SW), but may be erratic at times from boundary collisions. Any storm could become locally strong with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-55 mph locally, and heavy downpours. Activity will diminish thru mid evening. The main weather story will be max temps in the L-M90s and some U90s too, esp near/north of I-4. Widespread peak heat indices 104-107F and 108-110F possible locally - esp where Heat Advisories go into effect. Widespread Major to Areas of Extreme HeatRisk will be possible. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Take frequent hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C if you feel unwell. Min temps consistent and well into the 70s with conditions remaining humid. Fri-Tue...Building high pressure ridging continues across the area into the weekend. The weak surface high pressure ridge axis will meander between south-central FL and north-central FL into early next week. Drier air continues into Fri with reduced rain chances, but pockets of moisture will surge back into the area this weekend promoting a closer return to normal diurnal shower/storm chances. Fri precip chances 10-30% (highest near Lake Okee), with 20-60% on Sat/Sun - highest south of Orlando on Sat & then near/north of Orlando on Sun. Generally 30-70% rain chances are forecast Mon/Tue. With that said, still the building HeatRisk continues into the weekend with only brief relief (couple/few degrees) Mon/Tue. Fairly stout mid-level ridging continues across the central FL peninsula thru the weekend, with gradual break-down Mon-Tue with arrival of troughing across the Deep South. Shortwave energy will provide aid for convection and the higher PoP values already mentioned. This ridging will lead to a period of above normal temperatures, highest values near and north of I-4. Expect highs in the L-M90s near the coast and M-U90s into the interior. A building (Widespread Major to Areas of Extreme) HeatRisk is expected to affect those without adequate cooling and hydration. Trends will be monitored for any potential Heat Advisories as peak heat index values may near or exceed the 108F threshold across portions of the area (Fri-Sun). && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2206 Thru Sun...Weak high pressure ridging will meander between the south- central and north-central FL peninsula thru the weekend. This will produce generally favorable winds/seas. Shower and lightning storm chances will remain isolated to widely scattered (at best) into the weekend as drier air moves into the region. Light SW/S flow will transition onshore each afternoon with sea breeze formationand push inland. Late aftn/evening winds may increase to 14-18 kts over the open Atlc (generally north of the Cape), but otherwise speeds AOB 15 kts. Winds and seas locally higher invof convection. Seas 1-2 ft occasionally increase to 3 ft offshore, and by Thursday seas build to more widely range 2-3 ft across the local waters (perhaps 4 ft briefly over the Volusia waters). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers and lightning storms. Light and variable winds are expected to increase from SW at 6-12kts before backing SE into the aftn/eve except at KLEE. Winds are expected to become light and variable into the overnight. VCTS is forecast at the TAF sites north of KMLB after 20Z/21Z. The potential exists for an isolated strong storm. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2206 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 8 July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 98 (1981) 97 (2202) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 98 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (1969) 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 100 (1908) 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 97 (1998) 96 (2203) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 98 (2204) 96 (2204) 97 (2202) 96 (2200) Fort Pierce 97 (2204) 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 95 76 95 76 / 20 20 0 0 MCO 97 76 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 MLB 93 77 92 78 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 94 77 92 77 / 0 0 20 0 LEE 96 78 97 78 / 20 20 20 20 SFB 97 76 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 ORL 97 77 96 77 / 20 20 10 10 FPR 93 76 91 77 / 0 0 20 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Fehling  074 FXUS63 KAPX 090541 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1247 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue through the day today. Locally heavy rain the main concern. - Warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1213 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Rainfall has been a little lackluster Wednesday night, despite the abundant moisture. The night is still young though with upstream activity beginning to increase in coverage to some extent. Nevertheless, expect an uptick in activity this morning and through the afternoon, driven by a frontal boundary sagging south, increasing daytime instability, and a passing trough axis. With anomalous column moisture in place and respectable instability (especially south of M-32), thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall. Any better-organized storms that train over the same or sensitive areas could produce localized flooding. Deep-layer shear values remain relatively tame, and largely skinny CAPE profiles should limit the severe weather potential, though a robust storm or two is not out of the question due to the increasing heights aloft (>6km) and precipitation loading. Activity will wane this evening and overnight as the axis of anomalous moisture drifts south with the advancing frontal boundary. A quiet Friday is expected, with temperatures near or a few degrees below seasonal averages behind this boundary. A piece of energy or two riding the northwest flow—on the outer periphery of a building and eastward-migrating upper-level high—will swing through northern Michigan this weekend with little impact. The region will enter a warming trend, however, as heights steadily rise. Surface high pressure will build (or attempt to build) northeastward into Minnesota, bringing anomalously high heights aloft over northern Michigan. Consequently, temperatures will continue to rise early next week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Precipitation chances during this period will remain low, as long as the high pressure dominates the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mainly light showers have spread across northern Michigan this evening and will continue at times tonight. MVFR VSBYs are being observed across some locations (including MBL) and will be possible into Thursday morning. Flight conditions will continue to degrade as the environment moistens overnight, dropping CIGs to IFR/LIFR for most areas into Thursday. Additional showers and a few storms are expected into Thursday afternoon. Flight conditions look to gradually improve through the day, likely becoming VFR for all TAF sites Thursday evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...DJC  146 FXUS63 KSGF 090542 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less than 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in south central Missouri this afternoon. Most areas stay dry. - 30-50% chances of storms Thursday, and 40-70% chance Thursday night. Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes. - Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday, but cloud cover and rain chances limit confidence in excessive heat occurring. - 40-75% rain chances continue into the weekend with attendant low confidence in locations of severe and flooding risks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The closed mid-level low that has been sitting over Missouri is still very, very slowly moving eastward, currently centered just NE of the Missouri bootheel as noted in water vapor imagery. The moisture that was residing within the low has therefore also shifted east, with locally northerly flow aloft bringing in dry very dry air over much of our region as noted in our 12Z sounding. Due to the drier air, despite temperatures on track to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, dewpoints in the 60s will limit Heat Index values to below 100 F. Elsewhere, flow is somewhat more zonal, most notably within the relatively stronger flow across the northern CONUS. At the southern periphery of the stronger flow, a synoptic surface cold front is situated over NE into IA/MN. South of MO, a surface warm front is developing as a result of weak lee cyclogenesis over the OK/TX panhandle region. Low chance for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon: Due to the pocket of moisture situated within the weak closed low aloft in the bootheel region, weak small showers have fired in extreme south-central MO. This is expected to continue through the heat of the day with only a 15-20% chance of isolated showers and storms over the same region. Given the very small area of these showers as well as the isolated nature, many areas will remain dry. Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon: Thunderstorms across the central Plains are expected to be dissipating as they translate east into our region early Thursday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible along this remnant complex through Thursday morning (30-50% chance). These are expected to remain sub-severe as wind shear will be quite weak. The complex will create an Mesoscale Convective Vortex that will move east through Missouri during the day Thursday. The resulting subtle turning of winds with height ahead of the MCV will locally enhance shear (generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49) with lift along residual outflow within this regime to focus new thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon (generally after 2 PM). Short-term guidance is still a bit varied on the magnitude of shear which will influence hazards a bit, but the HREF mean suggests 20-30 kts of deep-layer shear, promoting multi-cell clusters as the main storm mode. High temperatures in the lower 90s will result in inverted-V temperature in conjunction with sufficient Theta-E diffs which could promote greater downdrafts and microbursts within any stronger storm. Therefore, damaging winds up to 60 to 70 mph will be the main risk. Any taller storm may produce small hail up to quarters at the largest size. There is a conditional risk for landspouts and/or tornadoes depending on how the MCV influences the environment. Three things need to occur for this risk to evolve. 1) The MCV needs to be strong enough to increase low-level shear/curvature. 2) Dewpoints need to be on the upper-end of the percentile spectrum (mid to upper 70s). And 3) temperatures need to be a bit cooler to lower dewpoint depressions and resulting LCLs. If these occur, some weak tornadoes will be possible. On the flipside, strong surface heating could lead to >8 C/km 0-1 km lapse rates, which in the vicinity of near surface vorticity from the MCV and synoptic fronts, could promote lanspouts. These are both very low confidence and conditional risks, however. We will need to see how conditions evolve through the day Thursday. Slight (2 of 4) Risk for flooding Thursday night: As night falls, focus then shifts to more of a flooding risk. A 30-40 kt nocturnal low-level jet is forecast to develop across southern Missouri, which will be in the vicinity of the daytime storm's outflows and the synoptic surface fronts. Convergence at the nose of the LLJ within a zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 1.8-2.0 in PWATs (ranged from HREF mean and RAP forecasts) will bring a 40-75% chance for further shower and thunderstorm development throughout Thursday night. Due to any residual outflow and the synoptic front resulting in a largely W-E orientation, parallel to the mean 850-500 mb flow, training of storms and resulting excessive rainfall and flash flooding will be possible overnight Thursday. Thermodynamics will allow for thunderstorms with rain rates up to 1-3 in/hr. That said, the orientation of the LLJ will be west-southwesterly, which may limit the overall magnitude of isentropic upglide lift which may keep coverage on the lower side keeping the flooding threat very localized to where storms train most. Anywhere that sees multiple storms may see localized amounts up to 3-5 inches. Additionally, with elevated instability and sufficient shear, large hail up to quarters will be possible, but given the warm and moist profiles, the risk is expected to be lower (5% or less within 25 miles of any point. Low confidence HeatRisk Thursday and Friday: Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 90s Thursday and Friday with moisture increasing. This may lead to Heat Index values around 100-105 F. However, with expected MCV cloud debris and outflow each day, confidence is limited in widespread excessive heat. Greater Heat Index values would be limited to areas that see the most sunshine during the daytime. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 40-75% rain chances continue through the weekend: With only weak mid-level energy traversing the central CONUS through the weekend, the synoptic thermal boundary will only slowly sag southward which will allow it to hang around the region Friday through Sunday. This will continue to bring 40-75% rain chances through Sunday (highest being 50-75% Friday night). Given little modification to the surrounding environment, some severe storms and localized flooding will continue to be possible through Sunday. At the moment, the entire area is in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe weather Friday and a Marginal (1 of 4) to Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall Friday through Sunday. Exact details are still very uncertain due to weak flow aloft making mesoscale details of each complex very important in how the location and magnitude of threats evolve each day. "Cooler" Temperatures to begin next week: An overturning wave break over the northern CONUS into the southeast states will bring more seasonable temperatures to the area to start next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. In the extended 7-14 day range, the wave break will dip into the Ozarks, bringing another heat dome to the area. The CPC gives a 60-70% chance of Heat Index values exceeding 105 F at some point during the July 13-17 timeframe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Conditions will largely remain VFR through the period, though there are scattered chances for thunderstorms both this morning and later tonight that may temporarily reduce ceilings. There is a damaging wind threat with the storm activity later tonight, which may impact airfield operations for a short time period due to LLWS. Outside of storm activity, winds will be primarily out of the southwest at less than 10 kts. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Nelson  226 FXUS61 KRNK 090544 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 144 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Showers/storms are decreasing in coverage and intensity for the remainder of the night. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Isolated thunderstorms through this evening will bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and flash flooding, although severe potential is decreasing. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Isolated thunderstorms through this evening will bring the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and flash flooding, although severe potential is decreasing. A stationary front bisects the forecast area from northwest to southeast with light northeast wind east of the mountains converging with westerly wind on west side of the mountains. Mean winds aloft are out of the west at about 15 mph so look for an eastward drift of the activity with potential for isolated damaging wind gusts due to water loading within the downdraft cores. There is also potential for localized flash flooding per environment supporting high rain efficiency, PWATs running 1.70 over the mountains to as much as 2" over the piedmont... backbuilding and training cells being the most problematic. After midnight, expect areas of stratus and fog redeveloping per shallow stable wedge east of the mountains. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will be a continued focus for showers/storms again Thursday with greatest coverage from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the front essentially stalled over the area, will have to contend with another day for localized heavy rain and marginally severe storms. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for early next week. Temperatures through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal and may actually cool to below normal for a few days early next week. The ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is shifting west over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The pattern of scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and morning patchy dense fog continues for today. Highest confidence for fog development is west of the mountains for areas that received rain yesterday, with KBLF and KLWB the most likely to see vsbys lower than 2 SM and ceilings below 1kft. KBCB may see vsby 1SM or lower at times through the morning, but confidence is not quite as high, so only have included it as a TEMPO group. Conditions improve to VFR areawide soon after sunrise, after about 13Z or so. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected as early as 17Z, waning by 00Z Friday. Included TSRA for KBLF and KLWB, where thunderstorms should reach first, as well as KROA and KLYH, as confidence is higher a bit farther north. Left VCTS for KBCB and KDAN, as high res guidance shows some differences in how far south storms make it. Nonetheless, any storms that develop near any terminals have the potential for gusty, erratic winds, heavy rain that could quickly reduce vsby, and lightning. Forecast confidence is high in the overall pattern, low to moderate in storm coverage. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each afternoon andevening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Potentially drier conditions look to arrive for early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM/SH AVIATION...AS/PM  224 FXUS65 KABQ 090544 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1144 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1136 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms. - A low risk of severe storms exists Thursday and Friday across far northeast NM, mainly in Union County. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The H5 remains flat and elongated west to east from NM to just offshore the northern Baja Peninsula today with only modest low level moisture beneath it across New Mexico. Widespread surface Td's in the 40s to 50s is beginning to yield this afternoon's crop of isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the high terrain. Steering flow will generally take storms off the Sangre de Cristo's S/SE over the adjacent highlands late today, reaching near the Sacramento Mts this evening. Some of these storms may be capable of briefly producing upwards of an inch of rain over the Sangre de Cristo's, but any flash flood potential is low. Rainfall rates with this particular cluster will steadily lower as they progress southward toward south-central NM this evening. Storm motions along the Continental Divide will be slower and erratic with short lifespans. Relatively drier boundary layer conditions with brief rain potential will heighten the risk for dry lightning and strong and abrupt dry downburst wind gusts. Evening convection will die down to about the midnight hour through central and south-central NM with erratic gusty outflow winds also calming thru the evening hours. After a relatively calm overnight into morning period, Thursday will see the H5 high continue to flatten and migrate westward, allowing for drier westerlies to expand through more of northwestern and north-central NM. This will shunt afternoon thunderstorms moreso to areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts, as well as over the southwest mountains in the Gila NF area, and south-central mountains near Ruidoso. Stronger westerlies aloft overriding the CO Rockies will provide for better bulk shear, allowing for a marginal risk of storms moving east off the Sangre de Cristo's to become strong to severe over Colfax and Union Counties Thursday afternoon. The H5 high builds back east over NM Friday, but afternoon thunderstorm initiation will favor the same areas with another marginal risk for some to become strong to severe along and east of the Sangre de Cristo's. The subtle difference will be the increase in high temperatures Friday into the low 100s for more lower elevation areas. Some areas including Farmington and Albuquerque may need Heat Advisories. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The H5 high begins to evolve into a more classically shaped NAM Monsoon high centered over the Four Corners region Saturday. This will keep the heat going over western NM with some lower level moisture still present through eastern NM. Afternoon storms will favor areas along the eastern slopes of the central mountain chain with relatively slow storm motions threatening heavy rainfall over recent burn scars. PWATs climb toward the 0.90" to 1.00" mark Sunday as the monsoon high builds toward the 600dm mark over WY, allowing for Gulf moisture to advance further west through the state. This will set the stage for more scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain of central and southern NM.There may also be some surface boundaries present across eastern NM capable of being a focal point for convective updrafts as well. The near 600-602dm high sets up its domain over the northern Great Plains early next week, continuing a healthy influx of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf through mostly the southern half to two- thirds of NM. Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain before migrating westward over surrounding lower elevations is the favored pattern each day. Any storm will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, threatening flash flooding where storms pass over the same areas repeatedly. High temperatures also trend down with the high migrating away from NM, lowering the heat risk. One area for uncertainty regarding afternoon thunderstorm chances early next week revolves around global numerical models no longer strongly resolving an easterly wave feature pushing into NM from TX. Suppression on the western fringe of this feature would act to lower thunderstorm potential, increasing again as its axis moves into the state, but there is less of a signal for that with the 12Z model runs this morning. Something to watch out for regarding next week's thunderstorm potential. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated, gusty -SHRA lingering over the region late this evening will dissipate thru sunrise Thursday. SHRA/TS will redevelop over the high terrain between 12pm and 3pm then move erratically south and east into nearby highlands and valleys on convective outflows. The main focus will be along and east of the central mt chain. A direct hit will be capable of wind gusts >40KT with brief moderate rain and lightning strikes. A couple storms over far northeast NM may become strong between 2pm and sunset Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No by the book critical fire weather concerns through the next 7 days. However, very dry conditions with heat building and very low humidity remains. Prevailing winds will be the limiting factor for any fire weather concerns. Abrupt and erratic wind gusts accompanied by an increased dry lightning potential does exist where isolated to scattered thunderstorms pass across mainly central, northern, and western NM through the rest of the week. More rain efficient thunderstorms enter eastern NM Saturday, spreading westward Sunday into early next week each afternoon as the main monsoon high develops to the north and migrates over the northern Great Plains next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 100 62 99 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 49 95 48 95 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 58 92 59 93 / 30 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 55 93 58 93 / 20 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 56 90 59 90 / 20 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 57 94 58 95 / 20 20 0 0 Quemado......................... 59 90 60 91 / 50 5 5 0 Magdalena....................... 64 90 65 92 / 30 50 10 10 Datil........................... 60 87 61 89 / 30 30 10 5 Reserve......................... 54 96 55 97 / 40 20 10 30 Glenwood........................ 58 100 59 100 / 10 40 20 30 Chama........................... 49 87 49 87 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 63 89 65 91 / 20 40 0 5 Pecos........................... 57 91 58 92 / 20 10 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 88 56 89 / 30 30 0 0 Red River....................... 48 79 49 79 / 30 30 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 44 83 44 84 / 30 20 0 10 Taos............................ 52 91 53 92 / 10 20 0 0Mora............................ 54 87 54 88 / 20 30 0 20 Espanola........................ 60 96 61 98 / 10 20 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 63 91 64 93 / 10 10 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 94 61 96 / 20 20 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 98 70 99 / 30 10 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 99 67 100 / 30 10 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 101 65 104 / 30 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 100 68 101 / 30 10 5 0 Belen........................... 64 101 65 103 / 20 10 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 101 67 102 / 20 10 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 100 64 103 / 20 10 5 0 Corrales........................ 66 101 67 103 / 30 10 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 64 100 65 103 / 20 10 5 0 Placitas........................ 67 96 68 98 / 20 10 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 100 67 102 / 20 10 5 0 Socorro......................... 70 102 71 104 / 20 20 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 93 64 94 / 20 10 5 0 Tijeras......................... 63 93 63 95 / 30 10 5 0 Edgewood........................ 59 95 60 96 / 30 10 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 96 56 97 / 30 10 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 57 90 58 91 / 30 20 10 10 Mountainair..................... 59 94 61 96 / 40 20 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 62 92 63 94 / 60 20 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 67 95 68 97 / 30 20 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 61 87 63 88 / 20 40 20 40 Capulin......................... 54 87 53 86 / 20 60 20 60 Raton........................... 53 91 53 91 / 10 50 10 40 Springer........................ 55 93 55 93 / 20 50 5 30 Las Vegas....................... 56 90 56 91 / 10 50 5 20 Clayton......................... 63 95 61 92 / 40 40 30 10 Roy............................. 60 91 59 91 / 10 30 10 20 Conchas......................... 66 100 66 100 / 20 20 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 64 96 64 97 / 20 30 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 69 101 69 101 / 20 20 30 0 Clovis.......................... 68 100 68 100 / 0 0 20 0 Portales........................ 69 100 70 101 / 0 0 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 69 100 70 100 / 5 10 20 0 Roswell......................... 70 102 72 103 / 0 0 20 0 Picacho......................... 65 97 66 98 / 5 20 20 5 Elk............................. 62 94 64 95 / 0 50 10 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...42  409 FXUS62 KRAH 090546 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 146 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Heat Advisory issued for portions of the southern Coastal Plain. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 146 AM Thursday... 1) Slightly less hot across the NW Piedmont today but dangerous heat/humidity persists across the southern Coastal Plain. Heat concerns likely to continue into the first half of the weekend. 2) Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized convective chances continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front and potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 146 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Slightly less hot across the NW Piedmont today but dangerous heat/humidity persists across the southern Coastal Plain. Heat concerns likely to continue into the first half of the weekend. Mid level drying will briefly take hold across the area today, with many locations seeing dewpoints mix out into the mid/upper 60s this afternoon. At the same time, H5 heights will increase slightly especially across the southern Coastal Plain. In that area in particular, the slightly lower dewpoints will likely be offset by higher 2m temps and once again we will see some areas of dangerously high heat index values across the area. This time it looks to be confined to the southern Coastal Plain and points southeast, and another Heat Advisory has been issued for today. Looking ahead at Friday and Saturday, persistent mid level ridging will keep temperatures well above normal (approaching 100 in some spots across the Coastal Plain), and it's entirely likely we'll need to continue with Heat Advisories for parts of our area through Saturday. Finally by Sunday we will see some relief area-wide as temperatures retreat into the mid 80s across the NW Piedmont and upper 80s to the southeast. Near or slightly below normal temps are forecast through at least Tuesday before warming once again into the low to mid 90s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized convective chances continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front and potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and Sunday. Weak mid-lvl and convectively perturbed westerly flow will work to focus otherwise air mass convection each afternoon/evening through Friday. Moderate instability, seasonable PWAT values, and steep low- lvl lapse rates will support damaging straight-line winds as the most likely hazard each afternoon and evening, although coverage today will likely be more limited in nature with roughly neutral H5 height tendencies and PWAT values around 1.5 to 1.75" advecting into central NC during peak heating. Best chances may be more focused around southern Appalachians that moves eastward into the Piedmont and again on Friday, but perhaps aided by outflow stemming from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Precipitation chances and coverage are expected to increase heading into the weekend as anomalous mid/upper lvl ridging over the Four Corners into the Northern Plains directs a west-to-east streamer of anomalous moisture and parade of convectively induced shortwave disturbances traverse across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. At the same time, high pressure is expected to build and strengthen over the Northeast and push a backdoor cold front into and through central NC Sun into Monday. Convective chances will be muddied by several days of prior coverage and rain cooled outflow moving into the area and the approaching cold front. If adequate instability is able to develop, increased mid-lvl flow of 25-35 kts would allow for more organized convection to develop. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1252 AM Thursday...Precip has ended across the area with only a few high clouds remaining. However we are already seeing some IFR stratus making its way into the northern Coastal Plain and RWI is likely to see at least a few hours of IFR cigs through daybreak. Lesser confidence in these cigs making it into RDU so I will keep them VFR for now. Since Wednesday's precip was less widespread than previous days, fog should also be less widespread. Some isolated pockets of MVFR vsbys may develop late tonight but not confident enough to include in the 06Z TAFS. Looking toward this afternoon, drier air moving into the area should yield an overall decrease in precip chances area-wide. Some western Piedmont convection is possible and could drift into the Triad sites after 20Z but this morning's 00Z guidance keeps things dry elsewhere. Outlook: Brief restrictions will be possible again on Friday, especially in the west as another round of afternoon thunderstorms may form. A better chance for more widespread rain and the associated restrictions will be on Saturday and Sunday as a cold front approaches and moves through the region. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leins/AS AVIATION...Leins/LH  627 FXUS64 KMOB 090553 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. - A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday night through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The upper trough extending from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley will gradually deamplify as it moves slowly eastward through tonight. An upper ridge over Florida, a small portion of the southeast states, and the eastern Gulf will expand northward on Friday to fill the void as a series of weak shortwaves pass over the Ohio Valley. The upper ridge will get nudged southward over the weekend as a stronger positively tilted upper trough exits the Middle Mississippi Valley and moves slowly southeastward, eventually settling along to the Eastern Seaboard to the Northern Gulf as a large upper high builds over the central CONUS. The combination of the upper trough and a weak surface low pressure area reflected in the lower levels over our region will result in an erratic light wind flow pattern at multiple levels, but there is still a small chance of a backdoor cool front slipping into our area from the northeast late Monday night. The diurnal pattern continues through the near term with a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon, followed by a 20-40% chance on Friday as seabreezes push inland. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with scattered to numerous coverage on Saturday and numerous to widespread coverage on Sunday. Looking into early next workweek, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday followed by numerous coverage on Tuesday. As with all summertime convection, instances of stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty surface winds and locally heavy downpours can be expected. High temperatures the rest of the week will average just above normal, ranging from 90-95 degrees. Lows will be about 4 to 9 degrees above normal, with middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 73 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with isolated short duration instances as high as 110 degrees. Cooler high temperatures will occur through the first half of next week with the increase in cloud coverage an rain chances. /22 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR flight category continues to prevail across the region today. Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible again this afternoon, mainly over interior areas, temporarily reducing flight category at times. Winds generally remain light out of the south to southwest less than 5 knots through daybreak, strengthening to 5 to 10 knots late morning into the afternoon hours. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southwest to west flow will prevail through late week, becoming southerly Friday into the weekend. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet by the weekend. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 76 92 76 / 10 10 40 10 Pensacola 92 81 92 80 / 20 20 30 0 Destin 89 82 89 81 / 20 10 20 0 Evergreen 93 73 92 73 / 30 20 40 10 Waynesboro 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 20 10 Camden 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 Crestview 93 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  637 FXUS66 KPQR 090553 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1053 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow will continue to yield dry and seasonable weather through this weekend. Temperatures trend warmer early next week as high pressure builds over the Plains. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Tuesday...Largely zonal flow aloft beneath the base of an upper-level trough moving inland through British Columbia has supported more widespread low cloud cover this morning. Satellite trends depict rapid clearing and mostly sunny skies are expected today across the region, save perhaps the far-northern Oregon and south Washington coasts. Another upper trough or closed low moving into British Columbia this weekend will see flow aloft turn southwesterly, resulting in only minor changes to the sensible weather locally, namely a farther inland penetration and delayed clearing of overnight and morning cloud cover. As such, seasonable weather will continue with afternoon high temperatures within a few degrees of 80F inland and in the low to mid 60s along the coast, overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, and largely dry conditions. The only exception may be areas of mist or drizzle along the coast and Coast Range during the early morning hours when marine stratus cover is at its thickest. Early next week, there is high confidence that broad upper ridging will develop over the Central Plains, pushing heights aloft higher and favoring a warming trend locally. Most-likely high temperatures through the first half of next week look to reach the mid to upper 80s inland and mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast, while overnight lows similarly push a few degrees warmer into the 50s across the region. This combination of temperatures continues to support Minor HeatRisk across the majority of the region with isolated areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Portland/Vancouver metro and through the Columbia Gorge. There remains a broad region from Salem north through the Lower Cowlitz Valley and east along the I-84 corridor through the Gorge where there is a 20-50% chance of Moderate HeatRisk on both Monday and Tuesday if forecast temperatures trend warmer, with the highest likelihood in the Lower Tualatin Valley (Beaverton, Tigard, Tualatin) and neighboring portions of Multnomah and Clackamas Counties (Portland, Wilsonville). Chances for Major HeatRisk are 5% or less across the region. Uncertainty in the temperature forecast increases beyond midweek as consensus is relatively low in the long-term evolution of the strong upper ridge. Nonetheless, chances for rain remain minimal through the period. -36 && .AVIATION...Light zonal flow aloft persists through the day, gradually shifting southwesterly near the end of the TAF period. While inland terminals will stay VFR through the entire period, coastal terminals will likely experience MVFR/IFR CIGs between 08-20Z Thu as marine stratus pushes into the coast (20-40% chance of IFR CIGs, highest at KAST). While CIGs along the coast will likely improve back to VFR after 20Z Thu, probabilistic guidance suggests the potential of MVFR CIGs after 02-03Z Fri (20-40% chance of MVFR CIGs). Otherwise, expect mostly north to northwesterly winds through the period, 5-10 kt with afternoon gusts up to 20 kt possible at inland terminals and 7-15 kt with afternoon gusts up to 25 kt possible at coastal terminals (highest winds at KONP). KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the TAF period. Northwest winds around 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible between 00-06z Fri. ~12 && .MARINE...High pressure will maintain north to northwesterly winds across the coastal waters through the week. Winds generally remain around 15 kt or less, though pressure gradients are expected to tighten later this afternoon and evening producing gusts up to 25 kt near the central Oregon coast. Thus, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters south of Cape Foulweather between 3 PM today and 2 AM tonight. Isolated gusts up to 20-22 kt will also be possible south of Cape Falcon. Conditions ease slightly on Thursday, and moreso on Friday, as a weak front approaches the waters. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  650 FXUS62 KFFC 090554 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 154 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Isolated to scattered storms on Thursday will become increase in coverage, becoming numerous over the weekend. - A few storms this weekend may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph and locally heavy rain. - Heat index values peak each afternoon between 95 and 105. Heat Advisory for portions of East-Central GA on Thursday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another hot and dry once again today despite the modest low level and deeper moisture in place. Similar to yesterday, sounding data showing 500 and 700 mb temps running warm and in the 90th percentile climo range. Combined with a small cap just above the freezing level and clouds will struggle to gain any vertical growth and momentum. Changes begin to happen tonight into tomorrow as the mid level ridge anchored over FL begins to break down and shift east as a ridging develops over the western US. Additional moisture and less inhibition will become more available Thursday afternoon thus pops begin to creep back up to near normal starting Thursday PM. Temps and dpts on Thu will be similar to today thus have continued the Heat Adv. for portions of middle GA on Thursday. Looking ahead, it is likely necessary again on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorm chances during the afternoon are expected to increase as we approach the weekend, especially across the northern part of the state. A slow moving front across the southern appalachians will eventually stall out over the southeast as the long term picks up bringing unsettled weather along and north of I-20 this weekend. By Monday, the front will begin to move off increasing rain chances for the entire CWA. The models indicate cooler and drier conditions are possible as we start next week, but the timing hasn't been consistent between the runs. What that looks like will ultimately come down to how quickly the weekend's stationary front leaves the area. Widespread severe weather isn't too much of a concern later this weekend. The SPC has us in a Marginal Risk on Saturday for far NE Georgia. The threat is mainly conditional to discreet afternoon convection and the primary threat will be the possibility for damaging winds. The approaching front and afternoon convection should bring us some relief from the heat though. Highs in the low to mid 90s with apparent temps in the triple digits will continue through Saturday before falling back into the 80s by the end of the weekend. The one saving grace here is that as storms become more numerous in the afternoon, radiation cooling will help prevent a number of sites across the CWA from seeing peak heat during the afternoon and temps may not rise as high as they would without them. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Some isolated showers left over from yesterdays convection are slowly diminishing this morning. Expecting Mainly VFR ceilings today with some MVFR ceilings and VSBYs in and around afternoon convection. With continued moist West to Southwesterly flow will see diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours. Winds are light and variable this morning but will see winds increase into the 5-10kt range out of the W to SW just after sunrise and stay there through the evening hours. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 7494 74 93 / 20 30 20 60 Atlanta 75 92 75 91 / 10 40 20 70 Blairsville 66 84 66 83 / 20 50 50 80 Cartersville 73 92 73 90 / 10 30 40 80 Columbus 75 93 75 93 / 20 20 10 30 Gainesville 73 92 73 91 / 10 30 20 60 Macon 75 94 74 94 / 20 20 10 30 Rome 72 91 72 90 / 10 40 40 80 Peachtree City 73 91 73 91 / 10 30 20 60 Vidalia 78 98 77 98 / 10 10 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ085-086-097-098-106-108>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...01  656 FXUS64 KBRO 090554 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1254 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 * Hot summer conditions continue through the week. Moderate (level 2 of 4) risk of heat-related illness each day, mainly in the Valley becoming more widespread this weekend. Heat indices will climb to between 100 and 110 degrees each day. * Daily rain and thunderstorm chances will increase from 10-25% today to 25-50% Friday/Saturday. While severe weather is not expected, any storms that develop are capable of heavy to torrential rainfall, gusty winds and small hail. * There is generally a low risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A seasonably hot forecast on tap for deep South Texas with daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and breezy afternoon winds. An inverted trough at the surface will continue to push deep tropical moisture northward today into this weekend, gradually increasing rain chances. Convection over the Gulf slowly heading northward may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms late this morning. Depending on coverage (ie, lesser coverage and more surface heating during the morning), isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze are possible this afternoon. Rain chances increase to low-moderate (20-50%) Friday and Saturday as PWATs climb to 2.0 to 2.3 inches. Most activity is anticipated in the afternoon along the sea breeze or along outflow boundaries. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, storms will be capable of producing efficient rainfall rates and localized heavy downpours, especially under slow-moving or training convection. Given relatively dry antecedent conditions and high flash flood guidance, any flooding concerns should remain localized, though isolated nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out. Rain chances taper back to isolated coverage Sunday into early next week as ridging builds over central CONUS, shifting deeper moisture away from the region. Confidence decreases late in the period as guidance continues to differ on the evolution of an approaching frontal boundary. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the forecast, with afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 90s (upper 80s along the coast). Combined with persistent Gulf humidity, peak heat index values of 104 to 110 degrees will support a moderate risk of heat related illness. Along the coast, long-period swell and astronomical tides may increase risk of rip currents and further narrow beaches near high tide. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with breezy winds during the daylight hours and lighter winds at night. A TEMPO has been added for convection, with timing based on the HRRR model. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Moderate southerly to onshore flow with slight seas persists today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day into the weekend, bringing briefly gusty winds, heavy rain, and elevated seas. This weekend, slight seas build to moderate into next week with increasing swells. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 79 93 81 / 30 30 30 10 HARLINGEN 93 75 94 78 / 20 20 40 10 MCALLEN 96 78 97 80 / 20 10 30 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 76 97 78 / 20 10 30 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 80 87 82 / 30 30 40 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 78 91 79 / 20 30 40 10&& .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$  753 FXUS62 KCAE 090556 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 156 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added a second key message to discuss the increased rain chances and potential for cooler temperatures associated with a frontal boundary. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Hot and breezy conditions continue through the end of the week with isolated thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow. - 2. A frontal boundary brings higher rain chances for the weekend followed by increasingly likely cooler temps. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Hot and breezy conditions continue through the end of the week with isolated thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow. An mid to upper level trough over the Tennessee Valley continues to slowly trek eastward today, gradually flattening out the ridge overhead. As the trough moves eastward, it is expected to absorbed into a larger scale trough in the northern stream. A weak surface trough is anticipated to develop through the end of the week in response, leading to breezy conditions and the chance for isolated thunderstorms both today and Friday. Despite the trough moving overhead, 850mb temps are forecast to be around 21-23C, which should lead to surface temps in the upper 90s today and tomorrow. Dew points are forecast to be in the upper 60s to around 70F, resulting in heat indices in the 100-105F range both afternoons. Continue to take precautions if you need to spend prolonged time outdoors the next couple of days. Thunderstorm coverage the next couple of days doesn't look to be very high due to weak forcing mechanisms. However, forecast soundings show an inverted V profile, indicating the potential for some stronger winds with and storms that are able to develop. Key Message 2: A frontal boundary brings higher rain chances for the weekend followed by increasingly likely cooler temps. A frontal boundary draped over the Upper Midwest early this morning is forecast to get pushed southward from a shortwave moving from the Great Lakes into the Southeast through the weekend. As the front and associated upper trough approach the area, more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be anticipated for the weekend. This activity could linger into early next week as latest guidance indicates that the front stalls out near the area. In addition to the increased rain chances, it looks increasingly likely that we'll see cooler temps. The NBM interquartile range (IQR) on Monday ranges from the low to mid 80s to around 90F for the area. Given the recent hot temps, the NBM takes that into account and will likely have a warm bias. So, I would not be surprised if we end up toward the cooler end of the IQR. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Mostly clear skies expected through mid morning then diurnal cumulus expected to develop with strong heating again today. A 20 knot low level jet is supporting surface winds around 5 knots which should increase to around 10 knots by 15z. Gusty winds are again expected by midday with southwesterly winds increasing to around 12-13 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots through the afternoon. Hi-res guidance suggesting some convection impacting the CSRA late afternoon so have included a PROB30 group there. Winds should subside after sunset but remain up around 5 to 7 knots overnight with a strong low level jet forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions expected. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon storms this weekend and into early next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...29 AVIATION...23  793 FXUS63 KGRR 090557 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 157 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slow moving front brings rain tonight and Thursday - Upper High builds in early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Slow moving front brings rain tonight and Thursday Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front have shown a weakening trend last couple hours as they move over Lake Michigan and we do not expect significant rain or thunder until closer to midnight as the front sags in from the northwest. Severe and excessive rainfall threats are low overnight as the front moves through with limited instability, shear and deep moisture, but the southern zones could see some resurgent convection on Thursday morning. With deeper moisture pooling south of the front, any training of thunderstorms could bring minor flooding. Showers could linger through Friday afternoon across the southern zones as the front becomes parallel to the upper flow and slows down or stalls. - Upper High builds in early next week Large scale subsidence and drying begins over the weeknight as an upper high builds across the Northern Plains and edges into Lower Michigan. Expect a spell of hot and dry weather for early next week before heights fall as an upper trough amplifies across eastern Canada. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thunderstorm and rain vicinity and north of MKG is gradually weakening and will probably only be a factor distant north of GRR and LAN the next few hours. Expecting cloud bases mostly at or above 4,000 feet today. The big caveat to the prevailing VFR will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the day and moving east. Went with a pretty long duration window of prob30 thunderstorm as models offer a wide variety of solutions regarding coverage and location of thunderstorms at a given time. Any better-developed thunderstorm cells this afternoon, especially east of GRR-AZO, will be capable of microbursts/LLWS and temporary IFR visibility. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy downpours will be moving southeast across Lake Michigan tonight into Thursday morning. Otherwise, conditions will continue relatively tranquil into the weekend. As high pressure builds in on Thursday into Friday, north winds could gust to 20 knots, otherwise winds should remain at 15 knots or less. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...CAS MARINE...Ostuno