933 FXUS63 KLOT 090600 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 100 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances return Thursday, with the potential for localized heavy rainfall Thursday afternoon and evening. Strongest storms may also be capable of localized gusty winds, mainly south of I-80. - Mainly dry, warmer weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A warm, dry afternoon is underway across the forecast area as an area of weak surface high pressure drifts slowly southeast of the cwa. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms were noted across southeast WI, where west-southwesterly return flow has brought a return of low-70s surface dew points, though drier low-levels and warmer mid-level temps across our local area should provide enough of a cap to minimize any convective threat here for the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase across northern IL toward daybreak Thursday however, as an area of thunderstorms currently developing across IA/MN/WI eventually approaches the area. High-res CAM guidance continues to be in good agreement that this area of convection will be in a weakening/decaying mode by that time, though may push an outflow boundary into the area after 1-3 AM. Given the diurnal instability minima during the early morning, guidance is not very excited about convective development along the remnant outflow, though isolated to widely-scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible generally along/north of the I-88 corridor especially by late morning as daytime warming eventually destabilizes the boundary layer. Scattered thunderstorm chances do increase from midday Thursday into the evening, as the synoptic cold front slowly pushes southeast into the forecast area along with some support from an approaching mid-level short wave. This wave appears weaker than some model runs had been depicting over the past few days, resulting in weaker mid-level westerly flow (20-25 kts as opposed to ~40 kts in some runs previously). Overall weaker forcing, and relatively poor forecast mid-level lapse rates, appear to be responsible for the sparser convective footprint in current CAM guidance across the cwa. There is still some support in current CAM runs for a remnant MCV (from an MCS forecast to develop along the NE/KS border later tonight) to approach the area later in the afternoon/evening which looks to yield somewhat greater shower/thunderstorm coverage during that time. Similar to earlier runs however, the exact track (while perhaps a bit south of previous forecasts) remains of somewhat lower confidence. In any case, these slow-moving storms will provide a threat of heavy rainfall, with localized amounts of 1-2" possible. Weaker mid-level flow (Corfidi propagation vectors potentially 5-10 mph to the ESE), precipitable water values approaching 2" and deep warm-cloud depths all support the likelihood of torrential downpours with some of these storms. Soil moisture, river/creek levels and storm water retention facilities continue to run quite high in portions of the cwa where repeated heavy rains occurred over the past week - especially across portions of the central and southern Chicago metro area. This raises concern for any additional localized heavy rainfall to potentially cause renewed flooding. With this in mind, have collaborated with WPC to include appropriate portions of our forecast area in their Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook in a slight (level 2 of 4) risk. The surface cold front is progged to continue to work southeast across the forecast area Thursday night, eventually slowing further and becoming nearly stationary across downstate IL/IN on Friday. This should allow showers and lingering storms to diminish from NW to SE Thursday night, while surface high pressure builds across the upper Midwest. Drier east-northeast low-level flow will bring drier and more stable conditions to much of northeast IL/northwest IN Friday, while isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorm chances linger mainly off to the south of I-80 during the diurnally favored afternoon and early evening hours. Diurnal precip chances should continue to shift south over the weekend, as the Great Lakes surface high settles a little farther southward. Longer-range ensemble guidance continues to depict an upper- level ridge building eastward across the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region later this weekend into early/mid next week. This looks to support a period of dry and warmer weather conditions (highs in the low-90s in many spots) in the extended period. Unlike last week however, current ensembles indicate heat within a less humid air mass. As usual on the north/northeast periphery of an upper ridge, We'll need to continue to monitor the potential for thunderstorm clusters to slide into our area, especially toward the middle of next week as a short wave is progged to rotate across Ontario and parts of the Lakes. Ratzer && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - 20-30% chance for isolated showers early Thursday morning, mainly near RFD. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Any of which could result in localized heavy downpours and reduced visibility. - MVFR ceilings Thursday night into Friday morning with potential for patchy fog after midnight. A busy weather and complicated TAF period ahead as several disturbances will be pivoting through northern IL and northwest IN. Prior to the arrival of the disturbances, increasing VFR clouds are expected tonight with light southwest winds that will become more westerly by Thursday morning. As we head into Thursday morning, the line of decaying line of showers and embedded thunderstorms (currently in IA and southwest WI) will be moving through northwest IL. With radar continuing to show these showers eroding suspect that mostly dry conditions will prevail through Thursday morning, but with an embedded convectively enhanced low being noted within the showers cannot fully rule out some isolated showers developing around daybreak and lingering through the morning (20-30% chance). Due to the lower confidence on coverage of any morning activity have opted to maintain VCSH at all TAFs with a PROB30 at RFD where confidence is slightly higher that something could materialize. Regardless of what develops Thursday morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the outflow boundary from tonight's storms that should be draped over northern IL. While exact timing as to when the afternoon activity will kick off remains uncertain, latest forecast guidance trends seem to be leaning towards a 21-22z initiation with thunderstorms likely to persist through at least 01-02z as the boundary slowly drifts south through the terminals. Though, there is a chance that some showers could linger through the evening especially if the boundary is slower than forecast. For now have opted to maintain the broad VCSH mentions with targeted PROB30s for the better thunder windows at each location. Any showers/storms this afternoon will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours which would result in IFR visibilities and possibly even some ponding issues particularly near the saturated areas from last week's rains. Showers and storms should taper after 03z as the boundary drifts south and the associated disturbance pivots east of the area. In the wake of the boundary a northeast wind shift will occur with speeds initially around 8-10 kts but those will be waning to around 5 kts after midnight. Ceilings will also lower to MVFR behind the boundary where they look to remain for the rest of the forecast period. While there is a signal for some IFR ceilings as well, confidence on their coverage is low so have opted to handle with a SCT012 mention for now. Furthermore, there is also a decent signal for patchy fog to develop near Lake Michigan and ooze inland overnight some of which could be locally dense. At this time the 30-hour TAFs will have a 6SM BR mention to tease the fog, but more refined TEMPOs may be needed for lower visibilities as confidence grows. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  966 FXUS66 KPQR 090601 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow will continue to yield dry and seasonable weather through this weekend. Temperatures trend warmer early next week as high pressure builds over the Plains. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Tuesday...Largely zonal flow aloft beneath the base of an upper-level trough moving inland through British Columbia has supported more widespread low cloud cover this morning. Satellite trends depict rapid clearing and mostly sunny skies are expected today across the region, save perhaps the far-northern Oregon and south Washington coasts. Another upper trough or closed low moving into British Columbia this weekend will see flow aloft turn southwesterly, resulting in only minor changes to the sensible weather locally, namely a farther inland penetration and delayed clearing of overnight and morning cloud cover. As such, seasonable weather will continue with afternoon high temperatures within a few degrees of 80F inland and in the low to mid 60s along the coast, overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, and largely dry conditions. The only exception may be areas of mist or drizzle along the coast and Coast Range during the early morning hours when marine stratus cover is at its thickest. Early next week, there is high confidence that broad upper ridging will develop over the Central Plains, pushing heights aloft higher and favoring a warming trend locally. Most-likely high temperatures through the first half of next week look to reach the mid to upper 80s inland and mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast, while overnight lows similarly push a few degrees warmer into the 50s across the region. This combination of temperatures continues to support Minor HeatRisk across the majority of the region with isolated areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Portland/Vancouver metro and through the Columbia Gorge. There remains a broad region from Salem north through the Lower Cowlitz Valley and east along the I-84 corridor through the Gorge where there is a 20-50% chance of Moderate HeatRisk on both Monday and Tuesday if forecast temperatures trend warmer, with the highest likelihood in the Lower Tualatin Valley (Beaverton, Tigard, Tualatin) and neighboring portions of Multnomah and Clackamas Counties (Portland, Wilsonville). Chances for Major HeatRisk are 5% or less across the region. Uncertainty in the temperature forecast increases beyond midweek as consensus is relatively low in the long-term evolution of the strong upper ridge. Nonetheless, chances for rain remain minimal through the period. -36 && .AVIATION...Light zonal flow aloft persists through the day, gradually shifting southwesterly near the end of the TAF period. While inland terminals will stay VFR through the entire period, coastal terminals will likely experience MVFR/IFR CIGs between 08-20Z Thu as marine stratus pushes into the coast (20-40% chance of IFR CIGs, highest at KAST). While CIGs along the coast will likely improve back to VFR after 20Z Thu, probabilistic guidance suggests the potential of MVFR CIGs after 02-03Z Fri (20-40% chance of MVFR CIGs). Otherwise, expect mostly north to northwesterly winds through the period, 5-10 kt with afternoon gusts up to 20 kt possible at inland terminals and 7-15 kt with afternoon gusts up to 25 kt possible at coastal terminals (highest winds at KONP). KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the TAF period. Northwest winds around 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible between 00-06z Fri. ~12 && .MARINE...High pressure will maintain north to northwesterly winds across the coastal waters through the week. Winds generally remain around 15 kt or less, though pressure gradients are expected to tighten later this afternoon and evening producing gusts up to 25 kt near the central Oregon coast. Thus, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters south of Cape Foulweather between 3 PM today and 2 AM tonight. Isolated gusts up to 20-22 kt will also be possible south of Cape Falcon. Conditions ease slightly on Thursday, and moreso on Friday, as a weak front approaches the waters. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  128 FXUS61 KALY 090603 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 203 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon for a few storms that could become severe. Primary hazards are strong winds and heavy downpours. 2) Heat and humidity build back in for eastern New York and western New England tomorrow into Friday for minor heat-related impacts. After a return to seasonal temperatures for this weekend, another warming trend begins next week with minor to moderate heat- related impacts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Based on latest forecast trends, scattered rain showers return tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning across eastern New York and western New England. A few thunderstorms could develop ahead of an approaching cold front where some could become severe with damaging winds and heavy downpours being the primary hazards. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to support a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon. Then for Friday, a few non-severe thunderstorms could develop before the cold front moves through the Greater Capital Region and the Mid-Hudson Valley. Primary hazards are strong winds associated with any thunderstorms. Continue to monitor the latest forecast with any changes. KEY MESSAGE 2... Humid conditions return tomorrow into Friday as the surface high pressure system heads east and a low pressure system arrives over the Great Lakes region. Associated with this weather system is warmer than normal temperatures with highs forecasted to range in the low 80s for higher terrain locations to low 90s for valleys before a cold front moves through Friday night bringing relief from the heat and humidity for this weekend. Based on latest forecast trends, feels-like temperatures range in the low to mid-90s for valley locations. For the Mid-Hudson Valley, forecast confidence remains steady on not reaching heat advisory criteria as more than 2 hours are needed for feels-like temperatures above 95 degrees. While it could be reached for one hour, the impacts remain minor for those more extremely susceptible to the heat and without cooling. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks when working outdoors during peak heating hours. Beginning early next week, we continue to monitor potential minor to moderate heat-related impacts as temperatures have medium chances to climb into the mid-90s for valley locations. Feels-like temperatures could climb into the upper 90s if humid conditions returns. Keep up to date on the latest forecast as we get closer to next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z FRI...VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle with mainly clear skies as high pressure slides southeast of the region. Clear skies combined with light winds should support some radiative fog but it likely will not be as widespread as yesterday morning. Highest confidence for fog and IFR vis/cigs is for KGFL mainly from 06 - 12 UTC. There is a low chance that a subtle boundary lifting towards I-90 results in a few isolated light showers and low stratus for ALB and PSF from 10 to 14 UTC. We included a TEMPO for MVFR vis/cigs at ALB with IFR vis at PSF given potential for fog. Less confidence for fog at POU so only included a TEMPO for MVFR vis. Any fog and low stratus should burn off/lift quickly 12-14 UTC with VFR conditions returning. A prefrontal sfc trough approaches by late afternoon from the west, resulting in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms between 19 UTC and 03 UTC for all terminals. We used PROB30 groups to highlight this potential. A few scattered showers likely linger overnight asthe boundary continues to slowly press towards I-90 but confidence remains low on exact location and duration of any showers. Thus, show VFR conditions returning for all terminals with mid-level stratus. Light/calm winds through early this morning then increase from the south/southwest ranging 5 to 9kts by 15 - 17 UTC. Any thunderstorms can produce variable winds with gusts 30-35KT, even stronger should a severe storm develop. Winds remain west- southwest overnight ranging 4 to 8kts. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...31  207 FXUS61 KAKQ 090605 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight Risk for severe weather has been added for the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore for Thursday. Updated Marine Discussion, no significant marine forecast changes && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)Showers and thunderstorms persist this afternoon potentially leading to isolated Flash Flooding and perhaps a strong to severe wind gust. 2) Slightly warmer summertime temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. 3) Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 339 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. Afternoon weather analysis shows weak zonal flow aloft across the eastern half of the United States. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front has been noted far south of the area and is currently in NC. Behind the front, a modest warm and moist airmass is in place with temperatures in the low to middle 80s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. This environment is favorable for showers and thunderstorms that have already to begun to initiate along a secondary boundary that is draped across NE NC and stretching up along the route-15 corridor. This boundary will be the most favorable area for a storm to produce strong to severe downbursts as the storms will struggle to maintain themselves off the boundary due to the weak synoptics in place. In addition, very isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out given a moist environment in place with PWATS between 1.9-2.2" and MLcape values between 1500-2000J/kg. Again the most favorable area would be along the boundary where storms can initiate and potentially train over the same area. For tonight, the showers and storms will decrease in coverage as day time heating is lost. Areas that receive rain could see the potential for patchy fog development tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. Models continue to hint on a slightly stronger mid/upper level flow Thursday and Friday. A 500mb trough is forecasted to be 30-35kt by Thursday afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave, with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave. With the upper levels strengthening and strong diurnal heating, a strong to severe wind gust cannot be ruled out each day. For the Thursday severe threat, the 12z CAMs have hinted on much stronger convection occuring over the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. This makes sense as it is best colocated with strong instability and the left exit region of the weak jet steak. These areas could also see the highest potential of localized flash flooding as storms have the potential to train over the sameareas. Friday continues to remain questionable as downsloping will occur giving the storms less coverage. In addition to the storms, temperatures are progged to climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. These warm temps mixed with high dews will allow for heat indices to climb in the upper 90 to lower 100s. The best place for heat indices to reach 105F would be along the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound. With such low coverage of the 105 heat indices, no Heat Advisories has been issued at this time. KEY MESSAGE 3...Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms chances continue through Saturday as a cold front pushed through the area. By the end of the weekend and into next week models hint on a drier patterns as high pressure returns to the area. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday, before a warming trend commences Tuesday into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 205 AM EDT Thursday... Areas of stratus were developing across the region as of 06z. MVFR cigs were observed at RIC and ECG with VFR conditions elsewhere. ORF and PHF are expected to drop to MVFR through 08z, with RIC falling to IFR ~08z. SBY should primarily remain VFR with brief MVFR possible early in the morning. A few showers and perhaps a tstm could move across the region early this morning. However, confidence of directly impacting any given terminal is very low. Conditions gradually improve later this morning with VFR conditions prevailing after ~15z. There is a chc of showers and tstms later this aftn and evening. The best probability is a RIC and SBY where PROB30 groups have been added. Any tstms could produce some brief strong wind gusts. Any showers/tstms move offshore later this evening with VFR condition prevailing overnight. A light SE wind early this morning will become SSW 5-10kt today, and then light out of the SW tonight. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms by Friday is generally ~30% at RIC and 30-50% at SBY, with 20% or less elsewhere, then 60-70% by Saturday. Trending drier and VFR Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected this week. E-NE 10-15 kt winds are expected through the rest of today. - The risk of thunderstorms is lower today but increases again Thursday and Friday. Benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this afternoon are E-NE at 10-15 kt on the north side of a slow moving backdoor cold front. Winds are expected to diminish slightly and shift out of the S-SE overnight at the front lifts north. Seas will be around 3 ft during this time and around 4 ft 20+ nm offshore. S-SE winds prevail into the early morning Thursday before shifting out of the W-SW during the afternoon and into Friday with 2- 4 ft seas. Winds swing around to the N-NW Saturday and then NE Sunday. Daily chances for storms are anticipated through the week, however, the chance this afternoon is comparatively lower than the past few days. Chances for more widespread storms, some strong to severe, increase Thursday and Friday as the cold front progresses north. SMWs will be issued as necessary. A moderate rip current risk is forecast today due to nearshore 3 ft waves and choppy surf. A low risk returns for the rest of the week. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed tomorrow for some additional calibration. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SW/99 EQUIPMENT...  146 FXUS61 KBOX 090603 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 203 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED...No changes to the forecast for this update cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm with high humidity today and Friday. - Humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. - Dry and seasonably cool for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with high humidity today and Friday. A warming trend begins in earnest today as 925mb temperatures rise to near 20C with the full July sun angle. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 are likely across most of southern New England by the afternoon. Expecting a very humid day with dewpoints increasing to near or just above 70 (at times) this afternoon. A weak cold front brings a chance for widely scattered showers and an isolated storm or two. Weak forcing from a subtle shortwave should prevent a more widespread threat for strong or severe storms. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across northwest Massachusetts. Any storms that do form will have the potential to produce frequent lightning and heavy rain as PWAT values climb above 1.7 inches. KEY MESSAGE 2... Humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Warm and humid conditions continue Friday although it will likely be few degrees cooler with 925mb temps running about 3-4C cooler than Thursday. Still, dew point temperatures near 70 will keep apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Attention turns to a cold cold front sagging southward from northern New England during the early afternoon in northern MA and reaching the southern CT-RI-MA coastline by early evening. The associated forcing will be greater than Thursday so there will be a greater chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday. Latest guidance still shows significant differences in the magnitude of instability and thus the eventual convective evolution Friday afternoon. The 00z NAM's CAPE values, while somewhat lower than previous, are still around 1500- 2500 J/kg due to its high-dewpoint bias. Meanwhile, the GFS's overmixing bias shows considerably lower values at around 500 J/kg or less. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle with the NBM which has 800-1300 J/kg by Friday afternoon. In any case, the primary risks with any thunderstorm looks to be lightning and slow-moving heavy downpours, which could lead to instances of street flooding in areas that see repeated thunderstorms. Latest guidance indicates 700- 500 mb heights which become increasingly parallel to the southward- sagging frontal boundary, which adds to the risk for slower-moving storms and also casts some uncertainty when we clear out, with the Canadian guidance suggesting post-frontal light rains lingering into part of Saturday along the South Coast. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry and seasonably cool for the weekend into early next week. Trending much drier behind Friday's cold front by Saturday with any lingering moisture pulling away from the region Saturday morning. The 500 mb pattern then transitions to one of cyclonic flow/troughing in the mean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to mid 80s) and lower humidity levels than experienced for late in the week. Weekend appears favorable for outdoor plans with nice summer weather. We'll be on the far western periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge which latest guidance still shows reaching to nearly 600 dm building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We still might need to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the ridge but it looks as though the weekend into early next week ends up drier than not. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Rest of tonight...High confidence. VFR. Light and variable winds becoming southwest. Perhaps a few patches of Fog mainly along the south coast. Thursday...Moderate confidence. VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible after 20Z across the western terminals. Thursday night...Moderate confidence. Lowering clouds moving in with areas of MVFR and possibly IFR. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Morning...High confidence. Mostly tranquil conditions today as high pressure builds over the region. A weak front approaches the region later this afternoon into the evening with showers and thunderstorms possible over the southern waters. Another tranquil start to the day Friday with showers and thunderstorms developing by the afternoon. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...FT AVIATION...FT MARINE...FT  185 FXUS61 KCLE 090604 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 204 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains generally on track. The Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded to include the eastern lakeshore areas and includes more of Northwest Ohio. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms return to the local area Thursday night and Friday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Northwest Ohio and extending east along the lakeshore Thursday evening/night. 2) Conditions dry out over the weekend with temperatures trending above normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a trough moving northeast through the Ohio Valley with moisture spreading north ahead of it. Meanwhile, a northern stream trough is moving into the Upper Midwest and will cross Lake Erie Thursday evening/night. The airmass remains very dry this afternoon with surface high pressure in place but the high is expected to weaken on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the north. Most of the day on Thursday will be dry but can not rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the lake breeze in Northeast Ohio/Northwest Pennsylvania. Otherwise a chance for showers and thunderstorms will be possible in Northwest Ohio by late afternoon with coverage increasing Thursday night as the front approaches. ML CAPE values are forecast to reach 1500-2000 J/kg in NW Ohio along with shear increasing Thursday evening as the shortwave trough passes aloft. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather has been expanded slightly to include more of Northwest Ohio and now extends eastward along the lakeshore which seems reasonable. The primary concern will be wind gusts of 50-60 mph with thunderstorms Thursday evening. Moisture advection will continue on Thursday night with PW values increasing to over 2 inches. Will continue with high pops for Thursday night as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. Will need to monitor for pockets of locally heavy rainfall with training of storms possible with the mean flow set up nearly parallel to the storm motion. On Friday another shortwave will track through the Ohio Valley. Instability may be kept to modest values with higher cloud cover expected. Still expecting continued shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday as the surface front is slow to clear the area. KEY MESSAGE 2... While a few showers may linger across the south on Saturday, the trend will be for drier conditions to develop over the weekend with high pressure building to the north. Low pops remain across the south into Saturday followed by a mostly dry forecast through the extended. While temperatures will be near normal over the weekend, a strong upper level ridge tries to expand east into the Great Lakes early next week. Temperatures are forecast to surpass 90 degrees in portions of the area but will depend on the our proximity to the ridge. There is a larger spread in ensemble temperatures next week based on if the ridge is overhead or if we are on the downstream side of it. Will be monitoring the overall pattern evolution over the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR conditions are largely expected through most of the TAF period with mid to upper-level clouds streaming across the area, and conditions too dry for fog this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from the northwest Thursday evening and overnight, though low coverage of storms and uncertainty in timing will limit the inclusion of TSRA or non-VFR conditions in most TAFs. Best confidence is at KTOL where most models have convection moving in during the afternoon, when peak heating will contribute to the best chance of seeing lighting (though still relatively low so only included a PROB30). Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Quiet marine conditions expected as weak high pressure lingers over the area this morning. Southwest winds around 5-10 knots become west during the day with waves generally 2 feet or less. A cold front will sag south across Lake Erie tonight into Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near the western basin late this afternoon before coverage increases across the lake tonight. There is a low chance of thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds and briefly higher wave heights. Winds will turn west to northwest behind the front Friday, then northeast this weekend as high pressure builds north of the lake. Wave should remain 2 feet or less through Friday, with 1 to 3 feet possible in the western basin this weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Saunders  219 FXUS65 KBOU 090605 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1205 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Thursday, with the severe threat expanding further west to the Front Range. - Prolonged period of hot temperatures arrive Saturday, lasting through at least Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances remain low during this period. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warm, dry, and gusty west winds prevail along and west of I-25. Mid level moisture and a weak wave will help produce isolated/scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph possible with this activity. Radar shows a boundary across Weld County where west/northwest winds meet the northeast winds. East of this boundary, the northeast winds are ushering in moisture with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The main severe weather threat today is east of the boundary. In addition to much better moisture, ML CAPE reaches 500-1500J/kg. Main threat will be gusty outflow winds up to 70 mph, but a few storms could produce severe hail as well. Storms will progress eastward across the plains, exiting the area this evening.  A few overnight showers will also be possible over the mountains where a weak wave will track. For Thursday, the pattern will generally be the same with a few slight differences. We'll see stronger westerly flow aloft Thursday as a speed max passes over the area. Better moisture is expected to push westward, but there is some uncertainty just how far west it will be. Where better moisture resides, we'll see MLCAPE of 1000-2000J/kg and plenty of shear for severe thunderstorms. The initial storms are expected to form over the higher terrain. Storms should increase in strength and coverage as they travel eastward, encountering better instability and moisture. High-Res models favor a couple line segments. or possibly one large line tracking across the eastern plains during the afternoon and early evenings hours, favoring a strong wind threat.   Upper level ridge off to the southwest begins to strengthen Friday. Flow aloft weakens and turns to the northwest. Low level flow will continue to be easterly, helping to hold onto better moisture across the plains and possibly as far west as the urban corridor. Expect another round of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms to track across the urban corridor and eastern plains.   For Saturday through Wednesday...the upper level high builds northward and will be centered over the Central and Southern Rockies Saturday. Temperatures will warm into the mid 90s across northeast Colorado. Easterly low level winds may help hold some moisture across eastern Colorado, however warm air aloft is expected to cap the atmosphere, and prevent storms from forming. The upper level high lifts northward and then remains semi- stationary over the north central part of the country through the middle of next week. Very warm temperatures are expected with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. Easterly low level flow will prevail during this period and provide just enough cooling to prevent widespread low 100 degree heat from occurring. These east winds likely hold in enough moisture to limit the fire weather threat as well. Very warm air aloft continues to cap the atmosphere. Can't rule out a few thunderstorms over the higher terrain early to mid next week. Steering winds will be from the east, meaning storms will have a westerly component when they develop. This will keep the urban corridor dry this weekend and for most (perhaps all) of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/... Issued at 1151 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026Winds will follow typical drainage patterns overnight, with speeds around 5 to 10kts. Winds will become more variable in the early to mid morning, before eventually turning to the northeast by the late morning to early afternoon. Another round of storms are expected this afternoon. Timing will be similar to yesterdays storms, with the most likely time of 19Z to 23Z for KBJC and 20Z to 23Z for KDEN and KAPA. Erratic and gusty winds will be possible during this time period, due to strong outflow from storms. Storms should move out of the area by 00Z. The winds after this activity moves through will be tricky once again, thanks to outflow boundaries from the storms to the east potentially causing sudden wind shifts into the late evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...AP  167 FXUS65 KGGW 090604 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1204 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An intense and potentially dangerous heat wave will impact northeast Montana this weekend, where daily highs will be in the 90s and 100s and lows only get down to the upper 60s to low 70s. - There will be a risk for critical fire weather conditions for southern areas on Sunday during the peak of the heat as winds and humidity will both be in the teens. - Temperatures will moderate early next week, but are expected to remain above average. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Isolated and scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved into a more favorable environment this evening for maintenance, and should continue to drift to the east for the next several hours. Eventually the lack of heating and the establishment of a stable layer should kill off what storms are currently out there. A large upper ridge will become strongly established over the western U.S. this weekend. This is the typical pattern for giving northeast Montana very hot temperatures with clear skies. An Extreme Heat Watch is in place for Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon highs each day will be in the 90s and 100s, and some ensemble members are hinting at near 110 degrees possible in the Yellowstone River Valley on Sunday. Combine this with poor recovery (lows in the 60s and 70s each night) and higher than normal humidity (dew points in the 50s to near 70 degrees) for much of the region, and this creates a potentially dangerous heat situation for all groups of people. While conditions will moderate some and precipitation chances will return next week, overall temps will remain near to above normal for this time of year, and heat stresses could last well into next week, especially for sensitive groups. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the forecast from base this evening. Confidence continues to increase with respect to this weekend bringing dangerous heat to northeast Montana. Beyond this weekend, confidence lowers but is still moderate in continued warm conditions with a return of precipitation. Cliff && .AVIATION... UPDATED: Thursday July 9 at 0530Z FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR DISCUSSION: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to drift across northeast Montana this overnight. Of the main TAF sites, it is most likely for GGW and OLF to be impacted by these storms overnight. Conditions clear for the rest of Thursday once the storms die off. WIND: While overnight winds should remain light and variable for most areas, any airfields in the vicinity of the showers and storms could see erratic and gusty winds. Otherwise, winds will stabilize more out of the west from 5-15 kts for most of Thursday. Cliff && .FIRE WEATHER... Confidence in any critical fire weather conditions at this point is relatively low, but there is some indication that, as long as the forecast remains as it is now, that Sunday could be an elevated to near critical fire weather day, mainly for Fire Weather Zone 137 in the southwest and the southern portions of Fire Weather Zone 122. Should all the necessary conditions come together, the critical potential would be due to the extreme heat (temperatures in the 100s), low humidity (10-15% in the afternoon), and winds that are likely going to be between 10-20 mph out of the southeast. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan- Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux. && $$weather.gov/glasgow  379 FXUS63 KGLD 090609 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1209 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This afternoon, we are still expecting temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s across the CWA, likely the warmest of the week. There is a weak stationary boundary that is set up over northeastern Colorado. This may form some weak showers early this afternoon, which could drain some of the instability from the environment for the storms later today. There is only a 5-10% chance of this occurring though. The main line of storms will be coming from a 500 mb shortwave trough. Overall, today is a stronger copy of Tuesday. Storms look to be entering the western CWA around 22-0Z. Most likely, we will see a broken line of storms fire off in eastern Colorado and fill into a QLCS by 0-3Z. Wind is the primary threat with these storms, especially if a bowing segment in the QLCS is able to form. Winds up to 85 MPH would be possible in this case, which would create a blowing dust hazard, maybe even a haboob. Most likely, wind gusts will be in the 55-70 MPH range, which could lead to blowing dust, but a haboob becomes slightly less likely and localized plumes of dust would become the hazard. Effective shear looks to be on the low-end side for this event, mainly in the 20-35 kts range. This is still enough for some severe hail to form, but makes it less likely. LCLs are forecast to be above 2 km. That combined with the poor shear means tornadoes are extremely unlikely this evening. The severe threat looks to end around 6Z, but showers may linger until closer to 9-12Z. Over the past multiple runs, the NAMNest has been showing a second solution to today's convection. This would have a cell form around or south of Limon, CO and move to the southeast in the early evening. Then, around 4-5Z, around the Tri-State border, another round of storms fires and move to the east-southeast. This solution is less likely, but if it occurs the wind threat lowers significantly, the hail threat increases to 2 inches being possible, and severe convection may last until closer to 9Z. In addition to these threats, there is a 25% chance that some backbuilding fingers from the main line of convection produce 1-2 inches of rain. It's unlikely, but this could produce localized flash flooding overnight tonight. Tomorrow's severe threat is very similar to today, with slightly better shear. Low level flow may be a few knots higher, which looks to push effective shear closer to the 35 kts mark. This increases the likelihood of hail, but maximum hail size remains around 1.75 inches. There is a slightly higher chance of a brief tornado, but still less than 2%. Models are in better agreement that tomorrow will be a QLCS moving across the CWA with wind being the primary threat, still. The dust potential does decrease due to recent precipitation, but is still a possibility. Once again, a 500 mb shortwave trough looks to spark off the main wave of storms, entering the CWA around 22-0Z. However, there is a 20% chance that another weak boundary fires off some weak showers and storms in eastern Colorado around 18-20Z. This convection may once again lower instability and decrease the severe risk for Friday evening. The main wave of the convection looks to have severe potential until around 6-9Z Friday morning. As far as a flooding threat, this increases with Thursday night's storms. PWATS in the 1.2-1.6 inch range are expected and there are more models that are trying to show leading edge and backbuilding fingers of convection. This could lead to precipitation totals in the 2-4 inch range. Combined with tonight's precipitation, this increases the overnight flash flooding risk to around 30%. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today, but still in the 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to remain around 60s in the western CWA and around 70 in the eastern CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday appears to be the last in a series of days with diurnally driven thunderstorms developing and persisting through the evening hours. Confidence in this time period is somewhat lower than normal since it will strongly depend on how thunderstorms develop tonight and tomorrow night. That being said, general pattern appears to hold frontal zone to the south of area, with generally easterly upslope flow throughout the day. Best large scale forcing for ascent appears to just skirt the CWA south of Interstate 70 as weak H7-H5 low moves into SW Kansas. As mentioned before, confidence in details is low at this point and time but overall pattern supports another round of thunderstorms developing over higher terrain and moving to the east southeast in the evening hours. Directional shear will be better than previous days, although overall wind speeds aloft are on the weaker side Friday will likely provide the best shear profiles for organized storms. Similar to the past few days, highest threat will be for organized areas of damaging winds through the evening followed by threat for hail in the 1" to 1.75" range. Blowing dust threat will depend greatly on how and where precipitation falls on Thursday and morning cloud cover. Confidence in these specifics are very low at this point however, resulting in low confidence in dust threat. Region will move into a warm and dry pattern as strong H5 597 dm ridge develops and builds into the northern plains through the start of the week. While there is a small threat for precipitation/thunderstorms on periphery of the H5 ridge Saturday this potential drops off rapidly through the rest of the period as subsidence under strong ridge. With probabilities of this magnitude of ridging fairly high based on ensemble probabilities, confidence in hot and overall dry weather is high. With temperatures climbing into the 90s, possibly upper 90s by mid week, the primary expected impacts. Right now, dewpoints should remain high enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions, but will have to keep a close eye on heat indices through the start of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the TAF period. Winds will be light and out of the northwest until around 16Z when they shift to out of the east and increase to around 12 knots. After 20Z, thunderstorms will enter the area from the west as a cluster causing erratic winds. Some storms may be severe producing 1-2 inch hail and winds around 50 knots. After the cluster passes, light rain will persist through the end of the TAF period. For KMCK, generally VFR conditions will prevail with a chance of MVFR conditions through 09Z caused by thunderstorms in the area. Thunderstorms continue to pop up in the area leading to sporadic storm activity. Winds will be out of the northwest around 10 knots through 09Z. Around 19Z, winds will shift to out of the east. Low confidence in thunderstorm conditions from 00Z through the end of the TAF period. If the storms occur, they would move in from the west as a cluster and may produce large hail and strong winds. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None.NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...KAK/Rhoades  335 FXUS64 KLIX 090607 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 107 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Through the end of the workweek, very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. - Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle. - Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The region remains under generally more active southwesterly flow aloft on the western periphery of the ridge over the southwest Atlantic and northeast Gulf. With the weakness over the Mid MS River Valley the higher POPs will be across that region. However, we certainly will not be rain free during peak heating this afternoon. PWATs around 2.0" or so will assist in efficient rainfall rates...so localized flooding will remain possible. Outside of hydro related impacts, DCAPE values are also supportive of gusty winds in the stronger thunderstorm activity. Going into tonight any convection will refocus offshore. Friday looks to be similar in terms of POPs with little changes noted in the overall pattern. However, the area going into the upcoming weekend will be a bit on the wetter side with a stronger QPF signal within the globals with a few H5 impulses/vorts pushing through the region. Temperatures through the short term will remain at or slightly above average with a slight decrease in afternoon highs with the gradually increasing rain chances. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper ridging will be centered over the Dakotas and Wyoming Sunday evening, with a weaker ridge near the Bahamas. In between, will be a weakness or trough that will be centered near Interstate 40 Sunday evening, just south of Interstate 20 Monday evening, and be near the Louisiana coast Tuesday evening. The upper ridge will eventually head southeast later next week and to Georgia or the Carolinas by next weekend, but that's well beyond the scope of this forecast package. As the trough approaches from the north, precipitable water values near the 75th percentile Sunday afternoon (1.9 inches) will increase to the 90th percentile (2.1 inches) Monday afternoon. This is somewhat of a slower progression than we were looking at 24 hours ago. Additionally, the trough never really gets off the coast, so any mid level drying looks somewhat less likely to occur, with both the Euro and GFS ensembles holding precipitable water values at least near the 75th percentile. The forecast solutions from the operational global models would signal a wetter (and not as hot) period for Sunday through at least Tuesday, and probably Wednesday. If forecast soundings from the GFS are any indication, convective temperatures for Monday and Tuesday may only be in the middle 80s, which would mean an earlier start to thunderstorm development (before noon) and high temperatures remaining below 90 degrees for several days. Rainfall amounts in a cumulative sense could be fairly significant in the Sunday to Wednesday period, with WPC forecasts currently indicating 3 to 5 inches of rain in that period, with the more favored portion being the southern half of the area. We'll have to see how those trends play out over the next few days. (RW) &&.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle. However, there could be some VIS/CIG reductions during the afternoon hours where convection develops. Winds appear to remain southerly and light, but may briefly become erratic and gusty around thunderstorm activity this afternoon. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mostly onshore flow as southerly winds are forecast through the upcoming weekend. Mostly favorable marine conditions expected outside of the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. Locally, winds and seas may increase in and around convection and waterspouts will also be possible. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF  764 FXUS61 KRNK 090611 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 211 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon, lingering through this evening. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon, lingering through this evening. Stationary front still remains draped over the forecast area this morning and will continue to persist within the area through this afternoon and evening. Weaker forcing today will somewhat limit storm coverage, but still expecting a few afternoon storms to develop across the mountains initially. Storm motions today will be a bit greater with increasing westerly flow, so any storms that do form should tend to not be as stationary as the past few day. With increased storm motions, the threat of flash flooding is lower today, but any storms that exhibit training could cause some localized flooding issues given the very moist airmass that is still in place. A few stronger storms may also result in strong gusty winds, but overall this threat should remain very localized as well. Storms will diminish slowly after sunset tonight. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will be a continued focus for showers/storms again Thursday with greatest coverage from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the front essentially stalled over the area, will have to contend with another day for localized heavy rain and marginally severe storms. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for early next week. Temperatures through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal and may actually cool to below normal for a few days early next week. The ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is shifting west over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The pattern of scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and morning patchy dense fog continues for today. Highest confidence for fog development is west of the mountains for areas that received rain yesterday, with KBLF and KLWB the most likely to see vsbys lower than 2 SM and ceilings below 1kft. KBCB may see vsby 1SM or lower at times through the morning, but confidence is not quite as high, so only have included it as a TEMPO group. Conditions improve to VFR areawide soon after sunrise, after about 13Z or so. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected as early as 17Z, waning by 00Z Friday. Included TSRA for KBLF and KLWB, where thunderstorms should reach first, as well as KROA and KLYH, as confidence is higher a bit farther north. Left VCTS for KBCB and KDAN, as high res guidance shows some differences in how far south storms make it. Nonetheless, any storms that develop near any terminals have the potential for gusty, erratic winds, heavy rain that could quickly reduce vsby, and lightning. Forecast confidence is high in the overall pattern, low to moderate in storm coverage. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Potentially drier conditions look to arrive for early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/PM AVIATION...AS/PM  742 FXUS62 KTAE 090611 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 211 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Rain chances decrease some today and Friday but an increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend and through early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Some localized areas of advisory level heat indices (108 F) are possible into Friday. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper level ridge axis extending west from the Atlantic will remain over the region this afternoon while weak southwesterly flow associated with a broad upper level trough to the northwest keeps some shower and storm chances in play today. The highest rain chances will generally be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and into northern counties across central Georgia. Conditions will remain warm this afternoon and above average for this time of year as highs climb into the low to mid 90s. Localized areas of heat indices of 108 to 110 are possible, but given potential for cloud cover, some convection, and the spotty nature of these heat indices, have held off on a heat advisory today. Shower and storm chances quickly drop off this evening with mostly quiet conditions expected overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Friday is likely to be the driest and warmest afternoon of the period before rain chances increase over the weekend and next week in response to a weakening Atlantic Ridge. Additionally, a steadily building ridge across the northern Plains will lead to lowering heights across the region. As PWATs increase to well above 2 inches into early next week, well-above normal rain chances will likely develop. This should help bring relief to recent above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Prevailing VFR conds expected away from thunderstorms. Used the latest CAMs guidance to fine-tune convective timing. Coverage still appears too spotty to maintain PROB30 groups for TSRA/-TSRA. Thinking may change by the 12Z issuance. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through today, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. A wetter pattern begins to develop over the weekend and into early next week with multiple days of widespread shower and storm activity expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Relatively low fire weather concerns, outside of higher dispersions across southwest Georgia counties, will prevail the next few days. Afternoon humidities will be in the 40 to 50% range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon with coverage decreasing the rest of the week, with only isolated storms possible today and Friday. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest through the period but localized increases across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons. Main concerns outside fire weather will be heat indices possibly reaching advisory criteria today and Friday with pockets reaching near 110 F. Rain chances increase markedly Saturday into next week with high probabilities for wetting rains expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts around an inch are forecast into the weekend for our Florida counties with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. Lower totals are forecast to the north. By early next week above-normal rainfall chances will likely lead to higher rainfall totals. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 76 95 75 / 30 0 10 0 Panama City 92 80 92 79 / 30 10 20 10 Dothan 94 75 94 74 / 20 10 40 0 Albany 95 76 95 75 / 10 0 10 0 Valdosta 97 75 96 75 / 10 0 10 0 Cross City 96 76 97 77 / 10 0 10 0 Apalachicola 90 80 90 80 / 20 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  802 FXUS63 KAPX 090611 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1247 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue through the day today. Locally heavy rain the main concern. - Warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1213 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Rainfall has been a little lackluster Wednesday night, despite the abundant moisture. The night is still young though with upstream activity beginning to increase in coverage to some extent. Nevertheless, expect an uptick in activity this morning and through the afternoon, driven by a frontal boundary sagging south, increasing daytime instability, and a passing trough axis. With anomalous column moisture in place and respectable instability (especially south of M-32), thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall. Any better-organized storms that train over the same or sensitive areas could produce localized flooding. Best potential today appears to focus south of M-32, where the better forcing and instability will reside. Deep-layer shear values remain relatively tame, and largely skinny CAPE profiles should limit the severe weather potential, though a robust storm or two is not out of the question due to the increasing heights aloft (>6km) and precipitation loading. Activity will wane this evening and overnight as the axis of anomalous moisture drifts south with the advancing frontal boundary. A quiet Friday is expected, with temperatures near or a few degrees below seasonal averages behind this boundary. A piece of energy or two riding the northwest flow—on the outer periphery of a building and eastward-migrating upper-level high—will swing through northern Michigan this weekend with little impact. The region will enter a warming trend, however, as heights steadily rise. Surface high pressure will build (or attempt to build) northeastward into Minnesota, bringing anomalously high heights aloft over northern Michigan. Consequently, temperatures will continue to rise early next week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Precipitation chances during this period will remain low, as long as the high pressure dominates the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mainly light showers have spread across northern Michigan this evening and will continue at times tonight. MVFR VSBYs are being observed across some locations (including MBL) and will be possible into Thursday morning. Flight conditions will continue to degrade as the environment moistens overnight, dropping CIGs to IFR/LIFR for most areas into Thursday. Additional showers and a few storms are expected into Thursday afternoon. Flight conditions look to gradually improve through the day, likely becoming VFR for all TAF sites Thursday evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...DJC  784 FXUS64 KCRP 090611 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 111 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 109 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts this week, with peak heat indices between 103-108 degrees. - Medium rain chances Friday into the weekend, with isolated pockets of heavy rainfall and high rainfall accumulations && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A mid-lvl easterly disturbance will progress northwestward toward the area today, passing through the area tonight into Friday. We will remain on the dry side of the wave axis today with only isolated showers and storms expected. Rain chances will there increase late tonight into Friday as the disturbance moves over the area and with it a plume of tropical moisture characterized by PWATs in the 2-2.3 inch range. There is a good signal that storms would focus over the Gulf waters and coastal areas early Friday morning with this focus then gradually progressing inland by the afternoon as the disturbance lifts northwest and the sea breeze develops. Given the aforementioned tropical moisture, increasing synoptic lift, and a deep warm cloud layer suspect isolated higher totals in the 2-3 inch range will be observed (and this is supported by the 00Z CAM suite). That being said 1 hour FFG is > 3 inches essentially area-wide so significant hydro concerns are not anticipated at this time. Although the mid-lvl disturbance will lift north and weaken on Saturday the anomalous moisture plume will remain overhead so another day of scattered storms and locally heavy rainfall can be expected. By Sunday into early next week a very anomalous ridge (nearly 600 dam!) will set up over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest with a number of easterly convectively-enhanced disturbances pivoting westward towards Texas along its southern periphery. These disturbances will likely track along an 850-700mb boundary/convergence zone, creating a zone of active weather Monday through the middle of next week somewhere along the western Gulf. Guidance is not in good agreement on whether this boundary sets up north of the area or over portions of the area so will leave scattered PoPs for now, but it is something to watch as somewhere in the TX/Western LA range will likely see heavy rainfall and training of storms. Temperatures will remain near normal through the period, with some increase in heat indices heading into the weekend as dewpoints creep up with the moisture surge. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. A medium chance of MVFR ceilings and visibility at ALI has led to a TEMPO group for these conditions from 09Z-13Z Thursday. There is a low chance for MVFR condition at VCT and CRP, but confidence is too low to include a TEMPO for this. Southeast winds will diminish overnight, then increase again by midday Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mainly moderate south-southeasterly winds (BF 3-4) will persist through at least Saturday. Some isolated storms can be expected today with scattered storms expected tonight through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 78 91 80 / 10 30 40 20 Victoria 96 77 95 78 / 10 20 40 10 Laredo 99 77 97 78 / 10 10 20 10 Alice 95 75 93 77 / 10 20 40 10 Rockport 91 82 91 83 / 10 30 40 30 Cotulla 98 77 96 77 / 10 10 30 10 Kingsville 93 76 91 78 / 10 20 40 10 Navy Corpus 90 82 90 83 / 20 30 40 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None.&& $$ DISCUSSION...NC/91 AVIATION...LS/77  038 FXUS66 KLOX 090616 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1116 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...08/826 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge of high pressure over the region. Temperatures will decrease slightly over the weekend as the ridge moves away from the region, but some heat impacts will continue. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting Sunday. Temperatures will begin to build once again on Tuesday, potentially reaching Major Heat Risk levels, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...08/826 PM. ***UPDATE*** Another warm day across the local area today during what is expected to be a prolonged stretch of warm weather. Temperatures will likely creep up a couple more degrees through Friday, especially across the interior and valleys, before slight cooling is anticipated over the upcoming weekend. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures this weekend, temperatures will remain above normal and likely warm further over the middle of next week, resulting in this expected prolonged period of warm weather. Once again, winds have really cranked up along the western Santa Ynez range this evening as the pressure gradient is currently around 4.5 mb, with gusts over 55 MPH recorded recently at both Gaviota and Refugio so far. The responsible pressure gradient is expected to relax some Thursday, with less significant Sundowner winds expected tomorrow evening. Finally, the marine layer can be seen on satellite beginning to fill in across parts of the western Santa Barbara coast, but this marine layer is expected to remain limited for areas south of Point Conception, with more clouds and patchy fog possible for the Central Coast. ***From Previous Discussion*** An upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region through Friday, before starting to move NE on Saturday. 500 mb heights will range from 594 to 59STDAFDLOX6 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal for this time of year. There will be onshore flow to the east strongest in the afternoon, but a few mb weaker than it was earlier this week. There will be a mb or two of offshore flow from the north in the mornings turning weakly onshore to the north in the afternoons. High temperatures continue to be the main concern through the forecast period. With rising 500mb heights through Thursday, lack of a solid marine layer, and only weak to moderate onshore flow in the afternoon, conditions will be warmer than normal for this time of year. High temperatures through Thursday will range 92-103 across the valleys and 75-92 across the coasts/inland coasts. These temperatures are 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. On Friday and over the weekend, 500 mb heights will decrease with a slight increase in onshore flow, leading to a few degrees of cooling. However, temperatures will remain above normal for the time of year. However, temperatures will start to increase again next week, even warmer than this week. Thus, The Heat Advisory for all the valleys, mountains, and Los Angeles Inland Coast has been extended through Tuesday morning (please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all details). Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening and Thursday evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County, and a Wind Advisory is in effect late this afternoon into early Thursday morning. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...08/139 PM. As previously mentioned, the upper level high pressure will shift NE late Friday through Sunday, and eventually reach the Dakotas. This northeastward shift will open the door for SE flowinto Southern California. Meanwhile, at the surface, moderate to strong onshore flow will continue both to the north and east. With the SE flow, monsoonal moisture will move into the region Sunday night, lasting through basically all of the next week. While the moisture won't reach the region until Sunday night, there is still instability that will bring a 10-20% chance of dry thunderstorms on Sunday. However, once the moisture moves in Sunday night, PWATs will raise to 1-1.5 inches across most of the region (even up to Paso Robles) through at least Tuesday, bringing a 10-20% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to Southern California. As for the heat, another warming trend will start up Tuesday through Thursday, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk, and a 30% chance of Major HeatRisk to most of the region during those days. Thus, an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for the majority of the region, with temperatures of 90-112 degrees possible away from the coast. Additionally, the monsoonal moisture will add to the discomfort of the heat. && .AVIATION...09/0612Z. At 0538Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2300 ft deep with a temperature of 27 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 30 percent chc of VLIFR conds 10Z-15Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z. Low confidence in TAFs for KSMO (40 percent chc of IFR cigs 11Z-16Z) and KLGB, KLAX and KPRB (40 percent chc of no cigs) KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no cigs. Good confidence that VFR conds will arrive between 1630Z and 1730Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 6kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...08/1016 PM. For the outer waters, current Gale Warnings look on track ending Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will follow, lasting through at least Friday morning. Large 10-12 ft seas will subside Friday, but current SCA may need to be extended into Friday night due to winds and seas. SCA level NW-W winds, with local gusts near gale force are expected for the inner waters along the Central Coast until Thursday morning. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning. Local SCA level wind gusts are also possible for far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning. For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...08/104 PM. A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through next week. With the swell, the potential for larger surf and greater risk for rip currents will continue. High tides are expected to increase this weekend going into next week with Monday expected to be the highest tide of 7.0 to 7.6 ft above MLLW. There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding next week with the high tides and south swell. One thing that will need to be watched into next week will be the potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential tropical development. Thunderstorms are also possible starting Sunday and going through next week with a 10-20% chance. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory now in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/KL/Rossi AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Phillips BEACHES...SF SYNOPSIS...RM/KL/SR weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  386 FXAK67 PAJK 090622 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1022 PM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .UPDATE...See Aviation Section && .AVIATION...06z TAFs...Main message changes going forward for aviation is the inclusion of possible fog for the Icy Strait corridor. As seen on satellite, the main band of precipitation and lift is somewhat stalling to the south of Juneau, with a dry pocket setting up over the aforementioned area. With recent rainfall, dewpoints are relatively high, in the upper 40s. With temperatures expected to drop into the mid 40s for a low, and some clearing allowing some additional radiative cooling, could see some fog development. Confidence is low to moderate for fog development. Therefore, did not go further than IFR starting around 3 AM tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Active weather continues as another front moves into the central and southern panhandle through this evening - Heavier showers are expected for the far southern panhandle with a slight chance (15%) of thunderstorm development - Elevated winds across the panhandle due to tightening pressure gradient, becoming gusty as showers pass through SHORT TERM.../Through 12Z Saturday/...Our next frontal wave is affecting the southern half of the region with plenty of cloudiness and numerous showers. This activity will persist tonight with some scattered showers also pushing north and impacting the inner channels, perhaps even a bit north of Juneau and Gustavus. Satellite imagery also continues to suggest some convective elements, and with some CAPE and sufficient cold air aloft combined with pockets of enhanced lift, there will be at least some gusty, heavy showers with reduced visibilities. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with strong winds as the primary hazard, especially to mariners. Farther north, including Yakutat, conditions should remain mostly dry into early Thursday. However, areas that see breaks in cloud cover overnight may again see some patchy fog development toward daybreak. With the exception of the far southern sections, precipitation chances will stay rather low Thursday. But, moisture associated with low pressure in British Columbia and a couple weak shortwaves will begin to impact the far northeast portion of the region by late in the day, which will then expand farther south on Friday. There could still be a few thunderstorms on Friday and potentially Friday night, mainly across the northern panhandle, but much of the organized activity may remain to our northeast. Recent model solutions have also leaned a little weaker with the mid level forcing and lift, so convective potential may be somewhat muted. We should have more clarity on this by late tonight or early Thursday. By Saturday, weak ridging will begin to approach the area, which should help gradually lower precipitation chances once again. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably mild across the region through the short term. High temps on Thursday may need to be bumped a bit warmer if model trends persist for a decrease in sky cover around midday Thursday. LONG TERM... /Saturday through Wednesday/... As the low pressure system from Friday moves southeastward, the chance for a disturbance from British Colombia to bring showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder will continue for Saturday. A ridge should build in behind the high pressure system, and that should decrease chances for precipitation. By Sunday night into Monday, a low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf of Alaska. Right now, models are still disagreeing on the exact timing and strength of the low, stronger winds (up to 20 kts or 23 mph) in the Gulf and some higher rain chances are expected for Southeast Alaska with the low. As of now, the low pressure system looks to not be very organized, but it is something to monitor. Heading into next week, there will be greater confidence of the timing and impacts of the low, but we look to overall enter a wet pattern. AVIATION...A front associated with a low in the Gulf, is currently driving moderate to heavy localized rain showers to the southern panhandle this afternoon, lowering CIGs and VSBYs into MVFR conditions with brief drops during passing showers. Showers will linger over the southern panhandle through the night, though precipitation amounts will start to lighten and move more central by tomorrow afternoon. Sites from Sumner Strait southward are trending toward high-end IFR early tomorrow morning, while the rest of the southern panhandle will remain in prevailing MVFR conditions with increasing pockets of clearing as the front moves out. Conversely, the northern panhandle will clear out tomorrow, remaining VFR from Frederick Sound northward, though there is potential for morning low clouds to linger within the Icy Strait corridor. Winds will generally blow from the SE ahead of the front, keeping many sites across the panhandle breezy through this afternoon before steadily decreasing in the evening. However, localized winds near southern Clarence Strait will keep PAKT elevated at around 15 kts through the night. MARINE... Inside Waters (Inner Channels): A front ahead of a Gulf low will continue to push its way northeastward into the Southern Inner Channels this afternoon into Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 25 kt for the tonight period for the Dixon Entrance & southern Clarence Strait before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. The rest of the Inner Channels should remain around 20 kt or less during the same timeframe. Then, a weaker pressure gradient causes winds and seas to calm as high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday. Outside Waters (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The Gulf low with its associated front will continue to push its way northeastward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska through Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 20-25 kt along the front just to the northeast of the low center tonight over the east-central & southeastern Gulf before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. Expecting 6 to 8 ft seas over the aforementioned region through Thursday evening. Then, as the pressure gradient relaxes, winds and seas calm resultantly as high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-661>663. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJB LONG TERM...Musall AVIATION...NC MARINE...BAS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  541 FXUS63 KJKL 090625 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 225 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area from Thursday afternoon through early Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 210 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with the latest CAMs guidance for PoPs and thunder chances through dawn. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones. UPDATE Issued at 703 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 Have incorporated latest radar and mesoscale model trends into the forecast, giving a more notable drop off in convection midway through the night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 241 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 A mid-level closed low over the Lower OH/TN Valley will slowly fill and become an open wave this evening into the overnight as it moves up the Ohio River Valley. Westerly flow then builds in its wake Thursday into Thursday night, with another wave and associated convection approaching from the west and west-northwest Thursday night into Friday morning. Numerous convective showers and storms have already developed across the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon. An overall increasing trend in convective activity is likely as the afternoon progresses in a moderately unstable environment with high PWs and lower to mid 70s dewpoints. A bit stronger mid-level flow than yesterday means storm motions are a bit more progressive than yesterday, but the potential for training of heavy rain still exists, particularly in areas where soils are already saturated from recent previous heavy rainfall. Thus, an isolated flash flood potential remains through Thursday morning. Flash flood potential increases Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, as another round of afternoon and evening convection is expected on top of increasingly wet soils. Attention then turns to a potentially significant round of heavy rain at the very end of the period towards dawn Friday with the arrival of one or more mesoscale convective systems. Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued starting at 18z Thursday afternoon, continuing into the first half of the weekend. With an active weather pattern and high humidity through the period, expect continued mild/warm overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s, with little if any ridge-valley temperature splits. Highs Thursday will be tempered somewhat by cloud cover and redeveloping shower and thunderstorm activity, with lower to mid 80s expected. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026 At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains. For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday.While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday. By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed. Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 Scattered showers/thunderstorms were noted to the northwest of the area at the start of the period, but the bulk of eastern Kentucky was clear of pcpn and were reporting a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions (due to fog and low clouds). An overall minimum in precip is expected as we move through the rest of the night, with largely VFR conditions until fog potentially settles in more completely. Meanwhile, the extent of the lingering cloud cover is a bit uncertain. Currently, generalized mid-upper level ceilings are forecast during the night, which would limit fog development compared to last night. However, with enough of a lasting decrease in them, fog could become a concern and bring deteriorating conditions. Some additional showers/thunderstorms could also develop through the rest of the night and bring reductions in ceilings and visibility. Uncertainty also abounds during the day concerning timing of showers/thunderstorms. It's likely that most places will be affected at some point. However, there is so much uncertainty regarding exact timing that it has been handled with PROB30 groups in the afternoon and evening. Outside of any storm, winds will be light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from this afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL/GREIF  638 FXUS61 KCTP 090626 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 226 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Upgrade to level 2/4 excessive rain and flash flood risk for south central and southeast PA Thursday afternoon & evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Torrential downpours and strong to locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may impact portions of south central PA Thursday afternoon and evening && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Torrential downpours and strong to locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may impact portions of south central PA Thursday afternoon and evening Most CAM guidance indicates a forward-propagating tstm cluster moving across southern PA/northern MD and the DelMarVa area tomorrow afternoon before tracking offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by late evening. SPC upgraded to a level 2/5 SLGT risk which clips southern York and Lancaster Counties. The remainder of the Lower Susquehanna Valley is in a level 1/5 MRGL risk with potential for strong to perhaps locally damaging wind gusts dependent/contingent on location of strongest storms. The best CAPE and shear overlap is forecast farther to the south over the DelMarVa. HREF shows 2+ inch pwats available this area to drive very intense rain rates and increased flash flood risk. WPC will upgrade the excessive rainfall outlook to level 2/4 for Thursday in their updated forecast later this afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Over the next few hours, visibility restrictions will begin to intrude on Central PA TAf sites. Highest confidence in these restrictions are at BFD, JST, AOO, and UNV as skies clear with dry air filing in over the western 2/3rds of the Commonwealth tonight. Restrictions at IPT, MDT, and MDT later tonight and into the morning are more likely in the form of ceiling lowerings. These are most likely in the form of MVFR restrictions although may boarder on IFR at MDT and LNS as more moisture gets pumped in from the south. As the sun comes out tomorrow, this will mix out widespread restrictive mist/fog and low cloud ceilings. Restrictions are likely to return in the form of numerous showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave trough moves in from the Ohio River Valley. Greatest coverage of storms is likely in the southern tier of the state, particularly at MDT and LNS in the afternoon. With tall CAPE profiles, minimal capping, and PWATs approaching 2", repeating, scattered, heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible, leading to visibility restrictions as they pass. Isolated instances of gusty winds may also accompany these storms. In the wake of this convective activity, the moist low levels may lead to mist/fog developing over Southeast PA. At this time, the best chances for these restrictions from this fog/mist appear to be after 06Z so may introduce mentions in future TAF packages. Outlook... Fri...T-storm impacts likely during the afternoon. AM low clouds and fog possible. Sat...Reduced chance and more limited coverage of PM showers/t-storm. Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR/no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambrech  744 FXUS63 KLBF 090626 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is in place for areas west of Highway 83 Thursday afternoon/evening with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main concern. - Some lingering light rain and general thunderstorms are possible on Friday as upper-level troughing remains close by, but no severe weather is expected. - Turning much warmer this weekend with a prolonged period of above normal temperatures likely for much of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Early morning rain and thunderstorms continue to percolate across western and southwest Nebraska. This is occurring within low-level convergence from residual outflows stemming from late Wednesday night convection. Additional thunderstorms developing off the Black Hills may threaten our northwest zones and be capable of strong outflow winds along with some heavy rain but longevity into western Nebraska is in question so will keep the forecast dry in the predawn hours for these locations. With high pressure nosing in, expect temperatures to fall to the upper 50s to middle 60s. Thursday/Thursday Night...high pressure will shift east into the upper Mississippi Valley and allow east southeasterly flow to resume across the local area. Outside of areas that see recycled air from Wednesday night central Nebraska thunderstorms, should see a narrow plume of richer moisture/theta-e that will work upslope into the southern Nebraska Panhandle and far southeast Wyoming. Afternoon highs should manage to reach the middle 80s for most and upper 80s for some. By mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms should form on the nose of this moisture tongue previously mentioned as it encounters a subtle converging line near or just east of the Nebraska/Wyoming border. Earlier activity is possible off the Pine Ridge into far southern Black Hills should this better moisture nose a bit further north. In either event, believe thunderstorms should be ongoing by mid-afternoon near the Highway 71 corridor with eastward progression allowing activity to reach the local area. While moderate instability should develop to the west, this will decrease fairly rapidly with eastward extent due to a combination of poor mid-level lapse rates and more limited low-level moisture. Thus, while deep-layer shear is stronger as one goes east, the waning instability and increasing low- level capping will inhibit thunderstorm potential for areas east of Highway 83. Consecutive runs of the HREF show this outcome well with measurable rainfall probabilities peaking between Highway 385 and Highway 61 but quickly decreasing as it approaches Highway 83 towards Midnight. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas generally along and west of Highway 83 but only a marginal for an additional ~50 miles further east. This aligns well with the forecast so no adjustments appear necessary. Beneficial rainfall appears possible for some locations. NBM output shows 50%+ potential for 0.25" or more rainfall through late evening but shows that hard decline on the east side aligning with the Highway 83 corridor. Believe spotty 0.75" or higher amounts are possible and should favor southwest Nebraska. Lows will fall into the middle 50s west to middle 60s east. Friday/Friday Night...a secondary weak meso high will cross southwest Nebraska with variable winds early in the day. Aloft, more pronounced shortwave troughing with associated height falls will quickly translate east towards the middle Missouri Valley. Though heights will climb during the latter half of the day locally, the proximity to the main h5 trough with ample moisture supports at least a continuation of light rain/general thunderstorm chances early in the day but diminishing towards the evening. NAM12 guidance suggests generally dry conditions from mid-afternoon on and HREF probabilities are in agreement with this. Will keep the 15-18% PoPs populated from the model blend but should this drier trend hold firm, these will likely be removed with subsequent forecasts. Temperatures aloft remain warm with h85 values in the lower to middle 20s degC and this should allow for near seasonable temperatures even with the lack of stronger boundary layer mixing. Forecast highs range from middle 80s south to lower 90s in the far north. While no precipitation is anticipated in the late evening, lingering low-level humidity should limit overnight lows to the lower 60s for all. These are near to slightly above normal for middle July. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Saturday into Next Week...much warmer temperatures remain on track as amplifying ridge upstream will spill over the Continental Divide and onto the High Plains. High pressure will build aloft, initially over the Four Corners region early Saturday to central South Dakota by late Sunday night as h5 heights approach 600 dam. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index highlights anomalous daytime highs each day Sunday through Wednesday, though most of the anomalies remain across the Central Rockies up through South Dakota and only skirt the area. This coincides reasonably well with where greatest h5 height anomalies are found with h2 and h5 geopotential heights reaching climatological maximums over the Dakotas and much of Minnesota by early Monday. This will effectively stymie any rain potential for the period, giving us hot/dry/windy conditions. It's worth noting that NBM percentile output has backed off on the expected heat modestly with median values largely holding in the middle 90s now for areas south of the Sandhills while locations along the NE/SD border saw climbs to upper 90s and triple digits, namely Valentine. Overall thinking is largely unchanged: expect heat, potentially significant heat, to establish itself across the Central Plains early next week and persist through the middle of the week at least. Though only showing subtly in NBM output, ridge breakdown should begin sometime Wednesday/Thursday and this may force a cool front south through the area and lead to more seasonable temperatures for the late week...at least briefly. Broad upper-ridging will likely remain across much of the southern CONUS and could build north into the area again by late week. Overall, the cooler signal for Wednesday which is now shown by both deterministic ECMWF/GFS solutions, remains limited confidence but seems reasonable given expected upper-level evolution around that time. Until finer details can be sorted out, stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Ongoing convection across western and southwest Nebraska will continue to wane over the next hour or two as lift weakens and the low-levels stabilize. Outflow boundary arcing from just east of KOGA to near 1V2 (Hyannis) continues to shift east with an approximate arrival into KLBF around 0630z (130am CDT). Low clouds may envelope western Nebraska terminals briefly around daybreak Thursday and could lead to IFR/LIFR conditions. CIGs quickly improve through late morning with generally clear skies for much of the daytime. Late afternoon convection will again lead to a steady plume of high clouds arriving from the west with thunderstorms threatening at least KLBF if not KVTN as well. Will cover with a PROB30 as activity appears likely to weaken quickly on approach. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...NMJ  055 FXUS64 KEWX 090629 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 129 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hottest day of the week Thursday, and heat index values will continue topping out in the 100 to 105 degree range each day through early next week. - Ambient temperatures ease off Friday into next week as daily rain chances return. - Strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours will be possible Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weak upper level shear axis is over South TX, but mid level ridging best seen at the 700 mb level is going to keep stable weather over the region through Thursday. Heating will be enhanced slightly due to the arrival of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume, and we'll probably see temperatures bump up another degree or two, and that could take AUS to join ATT as new arrivals for triple digit temperatures for the first time of the season. Similar to the previous dust plume, this one doesn't hang around long and the hazy conditions will be replaced be more moist and tropical air during the daytime Friday. As part of a broader low pressure area aloft over much of Mexico, a lobe of 500 mb energy, lifts north into South TX Friday morning, bringing with it higher PWat values of 2 to 2.4 inches into the Coastal Prairies. This has lead to a significant bump in rain chances for Friday and will also signal some heat relief from all the clouds spreading inland. A few strong storms, mainly wind producers could develop as early day heating could create some good air contrasts as the rain cooled air spreads north. With the high PWat environment and expected northward storm motions of around 20-25 mph, some areas could see a quick 2 inch rainfall amount which to lead to some low-end flooding concerns. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Wrn US and begins to lift north over the Rockies into the Northern Plains states this weekend. The northward amplification leaves much of TX in a broadening area of weakness as the H5 vorticity feature mentioned in the Short Term becomes more loosely defined. This broad area of weakness should continue to promote 30-40 percent rain chance type of opportunity at least for Saturday. The PWat values remain elevated and over 2 inches in spots, but the higher concentration of tropical air shifts NE to between Waco and Palestine by early Saturday evening. This more chaotic pattern should give the area a more air mass storm type which means timing and locations will likely jump around a bit based on where outflow boundaries are located. Heights continue to soar over the Northern Plains Sunday and this will funnel a lot of the mid level winds south of the bubble to be out of the E and N. This should hold the pooling of moisture over North and East TX, but could lead to some boosts in rain chances over Central TX and the Coastal Prairies. The pattern is fairly similar for Monday and Tuesday, so there could be a escalating concern for flooding should the rains concentrate daily over the same spots. The pattern becomes more sketchy late next week with the GFS and ECM deterministic runs showing less agreement, so there is perhaps an opening for another quiet period as early as mid-week. The NASA Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness modeling tool suggest a larger plume moving into the Gulf early next week should help slow the recurrent convective pattern down by next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR flight conditions prevail through the period with few clouds to clear skies. South to southeasterly winds temporarily decrease through early morning before increasing to breezy levels by this afternoon and evening. Gusts could be up in the range of 25 kt across the region. Winds then subside overnight into early Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 100 77 97 78 / 0 0 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 99 77 96 78 / 0 0 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 76 95 77 / 0 0 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 98 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 100 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 98 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 75 94 76 / 0 0 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 75 95 77 / 0 0 30 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 77 96 78 / 0 0 30 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 76 94 77 / 0 0 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 98 77 94 78 / 0 0 40 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...62  260 FXUS62 KCHS 090631 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 231 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An Excessive Heat Warning and a Heat Advisory remain in effect from 11 AM this morning through 7 PM this evening. PoPs were increased this afternoon into the chance category. The Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. - 2) Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week with increasing rain chances Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. Little change in the synoptic set up over the local forecast area will yield similar conditions today that were observed yesterday. The region will remain under the influence of the western periphery of a strong 594 dam high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. At the surface high pressure will dominate over the southeastern states into the start of the weekend. Surface winds will begin each day out of the W/SW, initially limiting the inland progression of the afternoon sea breeze. This will allow temperatures to soar into the upper 90s and even 100 at some locations. Combined with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, heat index values will likely reach into the 108-112 range inland and 113-116 range along the coastal counties. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most inland zones and an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the coastal counties for today. Afternoon convection today is forecast to be isolated to scattered in coverage, limiting any potential relief from the heat. A similar forecast is in store for Friday and Saturday, although conditions look to fall just shy of Extreme Heat Warning criteria. Additional Heat Advisories are likely. Additionally, overnight lows are only forecast to dip into the upper 70s/around 80. These warm overnight conditions could result in prolonged heat stress, especially for more vulnerable communities and those without adequate cooling overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2: Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week. Today, an area of broad low pressure is forecast to remain over the central Carolinas this afternoon, supporting SW winds across SE GA and SC. Due to the SW winds, the sea breeze may begin early this afternoon, pushing inland through the rest of the afternoon into early this evening. As the sea breeze pushes inland, dewpoints should rise into the upper 70s, with some values around 80. The elevated dewpoints combined with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, moderate instability is forecast to develop across the coastal counties of SE GA/SC. Recent runs of the HRRR and HREF indicates that scattered to isolated thunderstorms developing along and near the sea breeze this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings indicate that once storms develop, steering flow should result in the storms to track east between 15 to 20 mph. Given SBCAPE between 2500-3500 J/kg and DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, the environment may support some damaging wet microbursts. Machine learning products indicates that the greatest chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will remain along and east of the I-95 corridor. Thunderstorms coverage should steadily decrease this evening, likely ending an hour or two after sunset. Friday and Saturday, the pattern will likely persist across the region. However, forecast soundings indicate slightly less PW and some potential dewpoints to mix a bit lower. The forecast will feature at least SCHC PoPs for sea breeze convection. Sunday through Tuesday, GFS and ECMWF indicates that a H5 trough will ripple over the region and persist during early next week. At the sfc, a cold front is forecast to push south over the region, possibly becoming stationary. In addition, AIFS indicates that a broad sfc low may develop over the forecast area Sunday night, pushing off the coast Monday into Monday night. Forecast soundings indicate the PW will increase to 2 to 2.2" across the region. Synoptic scale forcing along with slight to moderate instability should yield much higher shower and thunderstorm coverage. These storms may potential produce pockets of excessive rainfall given the deep moisture and possible concentration of storm coverage near the coastal low. WPC has highlighted the region with a marginal risk on Sunday and Sunday night. The marginal risk could be expanded into Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Prevailing VFR through the 06Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. S winds will gust into the 20 knot range in the afternoon with the sea breeze at all terminals. Introduced a PROB30 line for KCHS/KSAV to account for the risk of TSRA impacting the terminals tomorrow afternoon. Any convection should dissipate with nightfall and remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR. There will be a low end risk of thunderstorm impacts each afternoon and evening through Friday. Showers and thunderstorm coverage and risk of associated restrictions may increase Sunday through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Little change in the pattern is expected today, with the afternoon sea breeze bringing wind gusts approaching 25 knots to the nearshore coastal waters. Opted for no Small Craft Advisory at this juncture, however it is possible that a short duration SCA could be needed for the Charleston County nearshore waters this afternoon and into this evening. Friday into Friday Night: Surges in the wake of the sea breeze may result in southwest winds to increase during the afternoon and continue into Friday night. Wind gusts may peak around 25 kts, possibly requiring Small Craft Advisories. The short duration of the elevated winds should keep wave heights between 3 to 4 ft. This weekend into Tuesday: The pressure pattern should support south- southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts, with occasional gusts into the low 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to favor 2 to 4 ft. Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents will remain along the Charleston County coast today and Friday. Conditions will feature 2- 3 ft swell with wave periods up to 9 seconds. In addition, SSW winds will likely generate a moderate longshore current, possibly supporting rip currents near piers and jetties. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 9: KCXM: 99/1986 July 10: KCHS: 100/1986 KCXM: 99/1986 KSAV: 102/1879 July 11: KCXM: 100/2001 July 12: KCXM: 97/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 9: KCHS: 80/1998 KCXM: 85/1998 KSAV: 80/1883 July 10: KCHS: 81/1986 KCXM: 82/1986 July 11: KCHS: 80/2016 KCXM: 82/2016 July 12: KCHS: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101-114-115-137-216-238-240. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217>219-239-241. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ043>045-147. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ148>152. MARINE...None. && $$ CPM/NED  536 FXHW60 PHFO 090632 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 832 PM HST Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trades deliver an increased coverage of showers windward through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... PoPs were adjusted to account for current trends otherwise previous forecast is on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM HST Wed Jul 8 2026 Stagnant upper air pattern between roughly 20N and 30N persists as the islands remain under the influence of a narrow upper ridge axis flanked on either side by cutoff lows. Expectedly, governing high pressure changes very little during the forecast period leaving the islands in a rather typical breezy trade wind pattern. A transition to a wetter trade wind pattern commences tonight as visible imagery shows a band of shower-bearing cu advancing WNW toward Maui County this afternoon. This band of showers is oriented perpendicular to the island chain and as such poses the potential to bring a few inches of rain to select windward locales as training showers become established. Given observed WNW motion and latest guidance, suspect Kauai may be the most likely to experience several hours of moderate shower activity potentially lingering into Thursday. The lead edge of a tropical airmass characterized by PWATs around 1.75" is evident on visible imagery as a SW-NE oriented band of clouds centered on 20N/150W east of the Big Island. This airmass will bring dewpoints into the low 70s and maintain the ongoing period of wetter trades into the weekend. Continued breezy trades will help take the edge off of mugginess as higher humidity builds. General signal from the medium range guidance is for increased shower coverage to continue into early next week. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy trades will persist across the Hawaiian Islands, bringing in pockets of enahcned low-level showers across predominately windward and mauka areas. Expect periods of MVFR condiitons in areas where shower activity become heavy. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect during the overnight hours for windward and mountain areas and may likely extend areally westward as showers continue. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 PM HST Wed Jul 8 2026 Strong high pressure centered north of the state continues to drive fresh to strong trade winds across all coastal waters. The ASCAT from earlier today only clipped the eastern end of the state, but confirmed Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds in the Alenuihaha Channel and across waters south of the Big Island. Hi-resolution guidance keeps Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds in many of the coastal water zones though tonight, so will keep the current SCA through then. Very little change is expected to the strength of the high or the pressure gradient across the islands, so will continue to remain around the advisory threshold for most waters over the coming days. The SCA will likely be extended beyond tonight for the typical windy zones around the Big Island and Maui County at a minimum, but additional zones might need to be included. A small to moderate, medium-period south southwest (190-200 degrees) swell continues to generate moderate surf below advisory criteria along south facing shores this afternoon. This swell energy will gradually lower through the remainder of the week. Expect small surf for south facing shores leading into this weekend, with mainly background energy. A small to moderate, long-period southwest swell (220 degrees) is expected to fill in Saturday into early next week, but due to its Tasman source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell. Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. A series of small, moderate- to long-period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells are expected to arrive this weekend and linger into early next week, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. No significant swells are expected out of the north or northwest. Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the latter half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel. && $$ UPDATE...Walsh DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Pierce MARINE...Farris  622 FXUS62 KILM 090633 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 233 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Extreme Heat Warning issued for the coastal areas of Southeast NC and Northeast SC, with heat indices over 110. Heat Advisory issued for the remainder of the forecast area with heat indices between 105 and 109. Updated aviation discussion with the issuance of the 06Z TAFS. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)The heatwave with just isolated convection to dominate during the near term. 2)Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...The heatwave with just isolated convection to dominate during the near term. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The upper ridge axis across the area will keep a lid on the majority of any convection that tries to develop today. Isolated tstorms remain possible along the pinned sea breeze across coastal Northeast SC. Mid to upper 90s will dominate todays highs with 100+ degree readings still possible. Even the coastal locations will observe low to mid 90 degree readings. Some mixing of drier air aloft will result in upper 60s sfc dewpoints inland which will keep Heat indices within the advisory criteria. However mid to upper 70s dewpoints will remain across the coastal counties which will result in HIs breaching Extreme Heat Warning thresholds. This same scenario will play out Fri and Sat with a noted flattening of the upper ridge. Will still observe Heat Adv thresholds both Fri and Sat but max temps should remain below 100 degrees. This in part to an evolving increasing threat of convection Fri and especially Sat with debris cloudiness likely helping to hold down max temps. KEY MESSAGE 2...Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper pattern change starting Sun will help aid in dropping a cold front southward, crossing the area Sun with high pressure slow to fill in from the north thru mid-week next week. The result will be the threat for numerous showers and tstorms late Sat night thru Sun night, even after the cold front drops south of the area. This pattern change involves the upper ridge that has plagued the east for quite some time, that will be shifting to the west-central part of the nation and progged to amplify considerably. With plenty of antecedent heat and moisture, the setup should be quite stormy Sunday and Monday, with some storms possibly on the strong/severe side. Temps will also drop considerably with residual low 90s Sun for highs followed by potentially 80s for highs early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR to dominate the 06Z 24 hr TAF Issuance Period. No fog or low stratus anticipated early this morning. Diurnal Cu later this morning thru early this evening will run FEW/SCT in coverage and in the 6.5k to 9K foot level. Subsidence inversion between 700-800mb will keep Cu vertical development limited. Convergence along the pinned sea breeze, especially south of MYR, may be enough to push thru and produce isolated convection. Just not enough coverage or confidence to place in any of the coastal terminals. WSW-W 5 to 10 kt this morning, may see g15-20 kt by midday. MYR/CRE will see a pinned sea breeze waver thru them by 17-18Z and may take until 20-21Z to reach ILM. The coastal terminals could observe SSW 15 g25 kt in the wake of the sea breeze. Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sat night into Mon as a frontal system drops south across the region. && .MARINE... Piedmont trof to strengthen across the Carolinas today thru Sat. At the same time, the High over the Atlantic Waters centered well offshore from the Carolinas gets suppressed southward. As a result, looking at increasing SW-WSW winds today thru Sat. Winds speeds increase to around 20 kt with possible frequent 25+ kt gusts across the ILM NC Coastal and Offshore waters Fri thru early Sat. In addition, looking at the threat for 6+ ft short period waves, again across the ILM NC Coastal and especially both ILM NC and SC Offshore waters. With this said, SCA remains possible for the ILM NC Coastal waters Fri thru early Sat. A cold front dropping southward, will cross the local waters Sun. Look for widespread showers and tstorms Sun into early Mon. Winds after FROPA will veer to the NE resulting in temporary victory at sea conditions until the NE wind has time to work on the local waters. NE winds will have an initial surge but then taper back some. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ105>110. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108.This will drive a cold front into the area. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-059. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH KEY MESSAGES...DCH DISCUSSION...DCH AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH  680 FXUS65 KPUB 090634 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1234 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow, east of the mountains. - Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over burn scar areas, particularly around the Aspen Acres fire. - Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, with moisture slowly returning to the mountains next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1233 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today and tonight... Today's weather will be similar to yesterday, with zonal flow aloft and a passing disturbance that will help initiate showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Storms will first fire shortly after midday, mainly over and near our eastern mountains. Initial convection will be relatively slow-moving, with weak steering flow at the mid-levels. As such, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible for high risk areas. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 12-8 PM for the Aspen Acres burn area. By mid-late afternoon, convection will push further east as a northerly surge moves down over the plains. This will enhance low-level wind shear and lift, allowing for storms to increase in both coverage and intensity. Latest model runs are generous with instability, placing 500 J/kg of CAPE over I-25 by mid-afternoon, increasing to around 1000 J/kg by the KS border. All in all, the environment is looking favorable for a grouping of strong to severe storms, capable of producing gusty outflow winds, hail, and moderate to heavy rainfall. These storms will continue to slowly push east into the evening hours, departing our area prior to midnight or so. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with highs in the 80s-90s and overnight lows in the 50s- 60s for the plains and 40s for the valleys. Finally, there will be a few hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions in the San Luis Valley this afternoon, but nothing widespread enough to warrant a highlight at this time. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper-level disturbance passes to our northeast on Friday, giving us enough lift for another round of afternoon thunderstorms. Easterly upslope will be present over the plains throughout the day as well, helping advect in warm, moist air and increasing instability. Storms will once again fire over the mountains before pushing east and intensifying. There is currently a Marginal Risk for severe storms Friday afternoon, along and east of the I-25 corridor. Heading into the weekend, high pressure will continue building in across the region from the southwest. Hotter and drier conditions will set in across SE Colorado, with highs climbing back into the upper-90s over the eastern plains. More spotty fire weather conditions will be possible over the San Luis Valley each afternoon, but nothing looks particularly widespread due to weak winds beneath the high. As the upper ridge continues slowly moving east, some moisture will start returning to the Continental Divide by midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 KALS...VFR conditions overnight into early Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the San Luis Valley by mid afternoon and remain possible at the terminal through early evening. Gusty outflow winds near 40 kts may be possible with passing storms. KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions into early Thursday afternoon at both terminals. Thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain and move across the terminals by late afternoon into the early evening. Gusty outflow winds to near 40 kts are possible with passing cells. Thunderstorms look to move eastduring the evening, with VFR conditions after 03z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MOZLEY  847 FXUS64 KMAF 090636 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 136 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Low chance (10-20%) of isolated storms over higher terrain areas this afternoon. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms Sunday through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Little change in the short term as mid to upper ridging over the Intermountain West continues to provide warm and dry, fairly uneventful weather. Low (less than 15%) shower/storm chances today and tomorrow afternoon, with the greatest risks being lightning, strong winds, and brief heavy rainfall. Rainfall accumulations are expected to remain below a few tenths of an inch due to low RH and PWATs staying below 1.00". Highs 95F-100F, 100F-105F along the Pecos River and Presidio Valley, and 105F-110F for the Big Bend are forecast. While not unseasonably warm, it is still advised to take proper heat precautions if outdoors, drink plenty of water, and remain out of direct sunlight during the hottest part of the day. Accompanying this persistent warm weather will be lee troughing remaining to the west of the forecast area. This means south/southeast winds increasing to the 15 to 20 mph range each afternoon/evening into the overnight will continue to be the story. Dew point temperatures stay in the 50s and 60s F, mid 40s to lower 50s F Presidio Valley into northern Guadalupes with pronounced south/southeast winds even after winds decrease overnight. This means overnight cooling will continue to be limited, resulting in lows in the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F cooler regions of northern Lea County and adjacent foothills to the Marfa Plateau and Trans Pecos, and 60F-65F for the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos. Along the Rio Grande, lows will continue to remain in the 75F-80F range. An upper air and near surface pattern change will deliver "cooler" temperatures by Saturday and shower/storm chances areawide by late weekend into early next week. More details on these pattern changes can be found in the Long Term Discussion below. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A cooling trend is forecast to take shape across the region beginning Saturday as the upper-level ridge transitions from the Four Corners region into the Central Rockies. Saturday is expected to be the warmest day of the extended forecast period with highs ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s for most locations. Upslope flow and weak disturbances in the flow aloft will create a low chance (10-30%) of isolated storms over the higher terrain. Sunday through early next week, easterly to northeasterly flow aloft will return to the region, accompanied by shortwave impulses rounding the periphery of the ridge. As a result, cooler temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s along with increased rain/storm chances are expected areawide. Medium to long range guidance has Precipitable Water values (PWATs) slightly above the 90th climatological percentile per SPC Sounding Climatology, signaling deep layer moisture with this pattern. Ensemble guidance is in agreement with the upper-level ridge becoming more elongated across portions of the Northern High Plains by mid next week, shifting winds aloft easterly to southeasterly. This pattern again favors daily rain/storm chances with cooler than normal temperatures for mid July standards. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.Convective chances will be nil, but forecast soundings develop a cu field late Thursday morning/early afternoon, w/bases ~ 6-8 kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 101 74 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 99 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 99 73 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 93 70 94 70 / 10 0 10 0 Hobbs 98 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 92 63 95 63 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 98 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 98 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 101 74 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...99  938 FXUS64 KOUN 090637 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered showers/storms are expected to continue to develop over northern Oklahoma into the morning hours. - Severe weather will be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning, and again Friday afternoon. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through the weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this morning, mainly across northern Oklahoma. A few storms may produce gusty winds and small hail, but overall impacts are expected be very low. The more showery activity may reach as far south as the I-40 corridor by sunrise. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than on Wednesday, where most of us will get up into the low 100s. Ambient surface moisture will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s through the day, especially across the eastern half of the area. That being said, afternoon heat indices are expected to get up to between 105-109 F across these locations. A heat advisory is in effect from noon to 8 PM for much of Oklahoma. A weak boundary that is expected to stall across northern Oklahoma today, may be the focal point for thunderstorms again this afternoon. Given the moisture in place, gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms. Bunker && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A more organized line of thunderstorms will move into the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. As these cluster of storms move in, they will be capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts and frequent lightning, along with locally heavy rainfall. There is a little more uncertainty with the position of the frontal boundary on Friday, which will be largely dictated by convection early Friday morning. This boundary will be the focal point for additional thunderstorms throughout the day. A few of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Another warm day is in store on Friday with afternoon temperatures reaching the triple digits for most of us. A few perturbations within the mid-level flow pattern will help support additional thunderstorm chances through Saturday across much of the area. A few stronger storms may be capable of small hail and gusty winds. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Temperatures through the latter half of the weekend into early next week will be 5-10 degrees cooler than what we will see over the next few days. A mid-level ridge across the Desert Southwest will shift to the north, and move into the central and high Plains. Across our area, we will see mostly dry conditions and a warm up back into the mid to upper upper 90s for the latter half of the week. Bunker && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 We continue to generally expect VFR conditions to prevail at all sites...however...confidence is increasing somewhat that we will see scattered convective activity translate across northern Oklahoma during the 06-12z timeframe. Maintained previous 30% probabilities for modest vis restrictions and CBs/TSRA from Woodward to Ponca City/Stillwater. We also maintained tempos at Clinton, Will Rogers/OKC, and Westheimer/OUN for temporally briefer impacts from roughly 08-12z at && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 101 80 100 79 / 20 0 10 10 Hobart OK 101 78 100 77 / 0 00 0 Wichita Falls TX 101 79 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 101 73 99 73 / 30 30 20 40 Ponca City OK 98 77 95 76 / 20 20 20 40 Durant OK 99 80 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-017>020-023>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...20  969 FXUS64 KMOB 090638 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 138 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. - A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday night through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The upper trough extending from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley will gradually deamplify as it moves slowly eastward through tonight. An upper ridge over Florida, a small portion of the southeast states, and the eastern Gulf will expand northward on Friday to fill the void as a series of weak shortwaves pass over the Ohio Valley. The upper ridge will get nudged southward over the weekend as a stronger positively tilted upper trough exits the Middle Mississippi Valley and moves slowly southeastward, eventually settling along to the Eastern Seaboard to the Northern Gulf as a large upper high builds over the central CONUS. The combination of the upper trough and a weak surface low pressure area reflected in the lower levels over our region will result in an erratic light wind flow pattern at multiple levels, but there is still a small chance of a backdoor cool front slipping into our area from the northeast late Monday night. The diurnal pattern continues through the near term with a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon, followed by a 20-40% chance on Friday as seabreezes push inland. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with scattered to numerous coverage on Saturday and numerous to widespread coverage on Sunday. Looking into early next workweek, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday followed by numerous coverage on Tuesday. As with all summertime convection, instances of stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty surface winds and locally heavy downpours can be expected. High temperatures the rest of the week will average just above normal, ranging from 90-95 degrees. Lows will be about 4 to 9 degrees above normal, with middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 73 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with isolated short duration instances as high as 110 degrees. Cooler high temperatures will occur through the first half of next week with the increase in cloud coverage an rain chances. /22 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR flight category continues to prevail across the region today. Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible again this afternoon, mainly over interior areas, temporarily reducing flight category at times. Winds generally remain light out of the south to southwest less than 5 knots through daybreak, strengthening to 5 to 10 knots late morning into the afternoon hours. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A light to occasionally moderate generally southerly flow prevails through Saturday, becoming southwesterly Sunday and westerly by early next week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet by the weekend. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 76 92 76 / 10 10 40 10 Pensacola 92 81 92 80 / 20 20 30 0 Destin 89 82 89 81 / 20 10 20 0 Evergreen 93 73 92 73 / 30 20 40 10 Waynesboro 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 20 10 Camden 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 Crestview 93 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  147 FXUS64 KLZK 090642 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 142 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 -Temperatures across the state will remain near normal to a few degrees above normal for the next couple of days. -Rain and isolated storm chances will become less widespread, but be present from I-40 northward on Thursday and across northern Arkansas on Friday. -A cold front will dive from the north out of Missouri into Arkansas to finish the out the weekend bringing an increased chance of widespread rain and storms to the Arkansas on Sunday into the day on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The state of Arkansas will remain under the eastern edge of a H500 ridge through Friday. Into the weekend, a ridge pattern begins to amplify over the Western region of the CONUS, centered over the Four Corners region which will result in northwest flow over Arkansas. Into the next workweek, the center of the ridge becomes fixated over the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with easterly flow overall for the remainder of the period over Arkansas. At the sfc, a warm front will remain draped near the Arkansas/Missouri border keeping respectable POP chances in the forecast through Friday across the northern half of the state. Into the weekend, this feature will move northward into Missouri and stall as a stationary front across central Missouri, but remain in close enough proximity to warrant decent POP chances across the far northern tier of Arkansas. Into the late weekend/upcoming workweek, this feature is progged to become a cold front and dive back southward into Arkansas by Monday. As this transition occurs, increased POP chances will be noted statewide Sunday into Monday. For the remainder of the workweek or the middle of next week, POP chances are expected to lower slightly, but remain present as a few upper lvl disturbances meander over the state to close out the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect VFR conditions to prevail across all sites between the forecast period of early Thursday morning and early Friday morning. A few instances of thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arkansas or at the sites of KHRO and KBPK later Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 95 77 94 75 / 20 20 20 40 Camden AR 96 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 94 78 93 74 / 30 20 30 50 Hot Springs AR 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 97 79 96 78 / 10 10 10 10 Monticello AR 95 77 95 77 / 10 0 10 0 Mount Ida AR 93 77 92 76 / 0 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 94 76 92 73 / 30 30 30 40 Newport AR 96 77 95 76 / 20 20 20 40 Pine Bluff AR 96 77 95 77 / 10 10 10 0 Russellville AR 98 78 96 77 / 20 10 10 10 Searcy AR 96 77 95 75 / 20 10 20 20 Stuttgart AR 96 78 95 78 / 10 10 20 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74  199 FXUS64 KMRX 090643 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 243 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 242 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and evening; the main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning. - A wet pattern sets up Friday and continues through the weekend, which may pose a more widespread flooding threat. - Dry weather returns for the middle of next week with near normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Water vapor shows a shortwave trough located over West TN and the lower OH Valley. This trough will be tracking east through today, and be positioned over East TN by the afternoon. This may result in slightly better coverage of showers/storms than we have had over the past few days. We will continue to have plenty of moisture in the area, with PW in the 1.8-2 inch range. Slow-moving or training cells will pose an isolated flooding threat, and while some gusty winds are possible, they are unlikely to reach severe limits as DCAPE will be limited. As the shortwave trough moves east of our area Thursday evening, a trailing boundary to our north will push southward. The proximity of this boundary along with passing midlevel disturbances will keep showers/storms going into Thursday night despite the loss of heating. A stronger flow in the 850-500 mb layer also develops on Friday, which will bring some better forcing for lift across a larger area. The flow is parallel to the boundary, which will enhance the flooding potential across our northern sections. The presence of the boundary in a very moist environment with passing midlevel disturbances will keep showers and thunderstorms going Friday night and into Saturday. The flooding threat will only increase with this persistent wet pattern, with northern areas having the highest potential. A Flood Watch may be needed with future forecast packages. Neighboring offices have started Flood Watches on Thursday, but for our area, the primary flooding threat for a good portion of the area appears more likely to begin on Friday, so we will hold off at this time. Sunday and Monday a bit uncertain as to whether the front will lift away from the area as a low pressure system tracks along the OH Valley, or if it will remain near our area. The pattern shifts to drier conditions on Tuesday as a large high pressure ridge over the Plains extends east and produces a deep northerly flow across the TN Valley. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 119 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Rain has largely exited the area with lower clouds and patchy being what to watch into the early morning hours. Currently, the best chances for MVFR ceilings are at TYS and TRI with TRI having the best chance for fog or IFR ceilings. CHA is expected to see clouds at or below 3,000 feet, but ceilings will be less common at that level. TRI will be slowest to improve back to VFR, potentially not until the early afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected again with slightly better coverage than yesterday. PROB30s were introduced at all 3 sites since there are fairly equal chances at each. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 73 90 73 / 40 10 90 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 71 86 71 / 30 30 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 87 70 86 70 / 40 40 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 67 83 67 / 60 40 90 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...BW  227 FXUS61 KPHI 090644 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 244 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flood Watch was issued for southeast Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, and portions of South Jersey. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. A Flood Watch was issued for southeast PA, northern DE, and portions of South Jersey. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. A Flood Watch was issued for southeast PA, northern DE, and portions of South Jersey. High pressure moves offshore this morning with return flow setting up behind the departing high, and southerly flow strengthening through the day. Dew points will climb into the low to mid 70s. Although temperatures will "only" be in the mid 80s or so, which is right around normal for this time of the year, the heat index will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. The main concern on will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Low pressure approaches from the west and tracks towards the Mid- Atlantic by this evening A mid-level trough will move into the Northeast with some shortwave energy passing through the Delaware Valley, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey. SBCAPE values will be in excess of 1500 J/kg with PWATS from 2-2.5 inches, highest values from the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, south into Delmarva. 0-6 km shear will be from 25 to 30 kt. The two main threats from severe weather will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. Given the high PWATs and potential for some periods of training, have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch for southeast PA, northern Delaware, and portions of South Jersey from noon until Midnight. Some areas within the Flood Watch also saw a good amount of rain lately and while we are still in a drought, the soils may be overwhelmed if some training were to occur over a certain area. Rainfall rates of 1-2" are likely witin the Flood Watch area. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, the eastern shores of Maryland, and Delaware, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) for the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. Ended up leaving the rest of Delmarva out of the Watch because of the more rural nature of the landscape and ability to take more rainfall than urban areas. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather (2 out of 5) for the Delaware Valley south of Philadelphia, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) from around Philadelphia north to Allentown. No changes were made this morning to the Severe Weather Outlook. Although some showers and thunderstorms will fire up over far western portions of the forecast area from noon-2pm, the main timing will be from 3PM to 9 PM across the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. While showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and localized flash flooding are likely for the northern zones as well, the highest impacts in terms of potential severe weather and flash flooding should be focused generally south of Philadelphia. A warm and muggy night with patchy fog developing Thursday night after showers and thunderstorms come to an end by midnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of a cold front moving southward into the area. Similarly to Thursday, moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front, where PWAT values are progged to be in excess of 1.8 inches. This supports that any given shower or storm will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As of now, the majority of our forecast area is highlighted in an MARGINAL risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. Held off on expanding the Flood Watch through Friday due to uncertainty in where the heaviest rainfall will set up today. In terms of the severe weather threat, ML CAPES are expected to reach at least 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values around 30 kt. Given better frontal forcing, there looks to be at least another opportunity for severe weather. As of now, SPC has our entire area highlighted in just a general thunder risk, however some of the MLP guidance indicate higher probabilities especially in terms of damaging winds. It is also worth noting that Friday will be quite sticky outside with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. This will result in heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. We may get close to Heat Advisory criteria in some spots, but basis the current forecast, heat indicies are expected to remain just below advisory criteria. There remains a vast amount of uncertainty with how Saturday will pan out as guidance continues to struggle with how quickly the cold front clears the area. Some guidance slows the progression of the front, keeping more in the way of showers around on Saturday, whereas others show a faster progression, yielding mainly dry weather. As mentioned by the previous shift, opted to stay very close to NBM PoPs for this period, which keeps 10-30% PoPs north, with 30-60% PoPs mainly across south Jersey and the Delmarva. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s. By Sunday and into early next week, guidance is showing an expansive upper level ridge setting up over the northern High Plains. This will yield dry weather and mainly clear skies across the Mid- Atlantic. Temperatures will be around normal for Sunday and Monday, but will swing back above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Tonight (through 12z)...Primarily VFR though some MVFR stratus develops late at all terminals except KACY sometime between 10z-12z. Winds generally light, though favoring a south/southwest direction. Moderate confidence. Today...Primarily VFR though scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and early evening. Coverage of showers/thunderstorms will be focused mainly from KRDG/KTTN on south. Have added TEMPO TSRA groups at all terminals except KABE as a period of thunderstorms are increasingly likely (60-70%) sometime between 18z-00z. Winds generally out of the south/southwest around 10 kt with higher gusts anticipated in any thunderstorms. Moderate confidence overall. Thursday Night...Primarily VFR as showers and thunderstorms move offshore. Cannot rule out some patchy fog, especially over areas that see rainfall. Winds out of the west/southwest around 5 kt or less. Low confidence. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Primarily VFR but sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%) in the afternoon and evening with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Primarily VFR though cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm developing. Saturday Night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected through Friday. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt expected with seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms possible (40-60%) on the waters both Thursday afternoon and evening and Friday afternoon and evening. Outlook... Friday Night through Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated. Sunday through Sunday Night...SCA conditions possible (20-30%) as seas near 5 feet. Monday...No marine headlines expected. Rip Currents... For today, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomes more southeasterly. This combination gives a MODERATE risk for the northern NJ beaches, with a LOW risk further south. For Friday, winds turn southwesterly, and the swell weakens. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for PAZ060-070-071-101>104-106. NJ...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for NJZ016>019. DE...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich AVIATION...Hoeflich MARINE...Hoeflich  233 FXUS62 KTBW 090644 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 244 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record high temperatures with high heat index values through Friday. - Drier air moving into the area will limit rain chances through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is ridging from the Atlantic across central Florida and will largely hold in place through Saturday, then will retreat southeast as a surface trough develops north of the area. Disrupting the normal July pattern, a Saharan Air Layer moving into the forecast area from the southeast is advecting in drier conditions today. While a few stray showers or storms will be possible this afternoon, most areas can expect to see rain free conditions today. Moisture begins to return from the south on Friday and Saturday, although the Nature Coast and parts of the interior are expected to largely remain rain free again Friday afternoon. Sunday through early next week, the rain coverage pattern is expected to flip as a weak trough sets up over northern Florida and areas to the north, keeping deep moisture and the highest rain chances generally north of Interstate 4. Other than the rain chances, the main weather concern for the next few days will come from the heat. Afternoon high temperatures will run near record warm levels at least today and Friday, topping out in the mid to upper 90s. While the lack of rain and cloud cover today will help push heat index values closer to Heat Advisory levels, the drier air should lower surface dew points slightly. So while not every site is likely to reach advisory criteria today, the thinking is that heat index values exceeding 107 this afternoon will be widespread enough to justify issuing a Heat Advisory for all of west central and southwest Florida. Increased cloud cover and rain chances Friday through the weekend should then limit heat index values somewhat Friday onwards, but conditions should still be near advisory levels in a few locations into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours. The area is forecast to stay largely rain free today, although there is a low chance of an isolated storm or two developing during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 High pressure will ridge from the Atlantic into the eastern Gulf today through early next week with winds and seas remaining less than headline criteria. Rain chances will be near zero today, then moisture will start to increase from the south Friday through the weekend, allowing for increasing chances of showers and storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Somewhat drier air will hold over the area today and Friday, although relative humidity will not drop to critical levels. Little if any rain is expected today, then scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible Friday afternoon as moisture returns, mainly from around Interstate 4 south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 97 81 96 81 / 0 10 30 30 FMY 98 78 97 78 / 10 10 40 30 GIF 98 76 97 77 / 10 10 20 20 SRQ 95 79 96 79 / 0 10 30 30 BKV 97 75 98 75 / 10 10 20 30 SPG 96 81 96 81 / 0 10 30 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming  349 FXUS63 KGRB 090645 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 145 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will come to an end late this afternoon. Severe storms are not expected. - Will need to watch precipitation trends this weekend. A few storms are possible Saturday and Sunday. - Trends continue to be monitored for the excessive heat potential early next week with highs in the 90s at some locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers continued early this morning near Rhinelander and Merrill eastward into northern Door County ahead of a weak cold front that is expected to sag southward today. As the front sags southward, rain chances return to central and east-central WI this morning which will continue into the afternoon. Bufkit soundings indicated 500 to 800 J/KG of CAPE and shear values around 20 knots, thus not expecting severe weather today. The showers and storms will end from north to south this afternoon. Tranquil conditions are expected on Friday. A new wrinkle to the forecast for the weekend. High pressure is expected to set up across the state. Return flow/850mb warm advection sets up Friday night, which should result in scattered thunderstorms developing across Minnesota and western WI. Some of the activity may spill into far north-central WI towards 12z Saturday. The combination of daytime heating and possibly an outflow boundary from the overnight convection is expected to bring a chance of showers and storms across the north Saturday afternoon. Confidence is low on a dry forecast for Sunday as the Canadian/ECMWF are bringing a weak impulse across the area at 500mb. The ECMWF is more bullish than the Canadian model on the QPF output for Sunday. Will continue to monitor to see if rain will need to be added for this period. 500mb ridge builds early next week, resulting increasing heat and humidity later this weekend through the middle of next week. 850mb temperatures are pretty toasty off the ECMWF/Canadian/GFS that would support highs in the lower to middle 90s at our typical hot spots. Current forecast is a little bit lower that what the max values would be each day. None the less, it will be hot. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and a couple storms will continue overnight into Thursday morning as a cold front sags south across the area. Main hazards will be heavy rain and lightning. Ceilings and visibilities will drop through the night as low clouds and fog spread in/develop, with IFR/LIFR conditions for much of the area. Some VLIFR conditions are possible, especially across northern WI. The fog will lift Thursday morning, with clearing skies expected in the afternoon. Patchy/areas of fog is again expected Thursday evening/night. Winds will remain under 10 kts. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Eckberg AVIATION.......Bersch  669 FXUS61 KBTV 090652 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 252 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 249 AM EDT Thursday... Slightly better model agreement has lent some confidence to increase rainfall amounts near the International Border, and along the central Greens in Vermont. Localized heavy rain will be possible today due to the presence of semi-training thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 249 AM EDT Thursday... 1. Scattered showers with isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms expected today into tonight. Localized heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorm activity. 2. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week with a warming trend as well. && .DISCUSSION... As of 249 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1: While there is a possibility of some localized fog this morning, unlike yesterday, coverage will be far less than yesterday, and will be confined to the Connecticut River Valley, generally around sunrise, if any fog does form. Into the daylight hours today, a cold front currently across the Great Lakes will slowly slide eastward towards our CWA. The front will become quasi-stationary by midday today, setting up along or just north of the International Border, oriented west to east. Along the front, weak frontogenesis will help limit the strength of the front, and overall hazards. A pre-frontal trough will slide south of the boundary and help produce some showers and thunderstorms focused across northern New York and northwestern Vermont through this evening. Good instability will be hard to achieve this afternoon with plenty of expected convective debris from the west. That said, modest instability around 500- 1500J/kg should accompany the initial shortwave helping to develop some isolated to scattered thunderstorms. As the first round of showers and thunderstorms exists this evening, a brief lull in the Champlain Valley will follow until closer to midnight tonight. Showers will continue to linger across the St. Lawrence Valley however. Between midnight and sunrise Friday, the cold front will begin to slide south through the region, with a resurgence of shower and possible thunderstorm activity. Precipitation will be mainly focused over central and northern Vermont overnight. Stronger storms continue to look unlikely today due to poor mid level lapse rates and weaker shear to around 30-35 KTs. The severe threat will be mainly conditional on late morning to early afternoon shower activity, and will likely favor weak small bowing segments given skinny CAPE profiles. If any storms were to become stronger, damaging winds would be the main threat. Moisture content will be the main concern, albeit still low concerns, with this system. Storms will follow the mean flow vector which could lead to some isolated training cells over northern New York. Pwats will be around 1.5-2" across much of northern New York, and northwestern Vermont in addition to deep warm layer cloud depths. Given recent rain overperformers with similar water profiles, have increased the rainfall amounts slightly up, which has followed some trends in the CAMs over northern New York and the central Greens. Total rainfall between a quarter inch to half an inch is expected for most areas north of US-4, with locally higher in the northern St. Lawrence Valley and central Greens from thunderstorm activity. As we near July 10th, and with the potential for some brief training storms today, we wanted to say this event is not expected to be anywhere near the flooding potential of recent years. While localized heavy rains will be possible, widespread or damaging flooding potential is not expected. Showers look to be progressive and should not sit over any one area even if multiplerounds of showers are possible. As the cold front continues to slide south into Friday morning, some lingering showers are possible in southern Vermont, with perhaps some sprinkles and light showers until midday Friday. Behind the front, cooler and drier northerly air will help temperatures fall to the mid 70s to low 80s with dewpoints near 50 by Saturday afternoon. Some fog may be possible in the usual river valleys Friday night due to recent rains and clearing skies. KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging will build into the Northern Plains early next week while an upper trough exits to our east. This will place northern NY and New England under northwest flow. Models continue to indicate a couple of weak fronts/surface troughs to ride through this northwest flow and cross our region. However, timing varies quite a bit from model and run to run, leading to considerable uncertainty. Both moisture and warmth will increase through this period, with highs approaching 90F and dewpoints rising into the 60s. With this in mind, any thunderstorms could be strong if any boundaries push across the region during peak heating. The exact timing is difficult to pinpoint this far out though, especially given the differences in model solutions, so have stayed with NBM/WPC forecast for now, with 25-40% PoPs each afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Through 06Z Friday...Generally VFR conditions are expected over the next several hours. Some IFR fog has already developed at SLK, have covered this using a TEMPO group. Winds calm or light and variable overnight, RUT has a drainage wind. A frontal boundary is expected to shift south after 18z with showers and thunderstorms, especially near the international border. The feature will be slow to sag south, and so it may not reach KMPV or KRUT until near or after 00z. Outlook... Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance TSRA, Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig DISCUSSION...Danzig/Neiles AVIATION...Neiles  687 FXUS61 KBUF 090653 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 253 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures and elevated humidity levels continue today. 2) Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon through Friday, with a Marginal Risk for a few severe storms this afternoon and evening that may produce some gusty winds and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and elevated humidity levels continue today. Highs today will reach the mid to upper 80s across the lower elevations away from lake influences. When combined with elevated humidity levels, heat indices are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for most of the lower elevations, and possibly approaching the mid 90s for areas just south of Lake Ontario and the western Finger Lakes/lower Genesee Valley. KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon through Friday, with a Marginal Risk for a few severe storms this afternoon and evening that may produce some gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Mainly dry weather expected through midday or so before a weak/wavy cold frontal boundary approaches from the northwest bringing increasing chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. The tightening pressure gradient will allow a more substantial southwest flow to develop ahead of the approaching cold front supporting a more expansive stable lake shadow northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, likely keeping locations northeast of the lakes mainly dry, at least through much of the afternoon hours. Otherwise, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop again later today along and inland of lake breeze circulations. Model guidance continues to advertise a faster approach of the cold front, which will allow the boundary to take advantage of diurnal heating. Deeper moisture will also pool ahead of the boundary with PWAT values rising to 1.5 to 1.8 inches. The best 0-6km shear will be toward the North Country/SL Valley with values near 30-35 knots, and trailing off with southward extent. Main limiting factors will be overall modest instability and poor lapse rates. However, the cold front will be able to take advantage of diurnal instability, and when combined with 30-35 knots of 0-6km shear, a few severe thunderstorms may develop capable of producing strong gusty winds for which SPC has a Marginal Risk for the bulk of our area. The best chance for a few gusty thunderstorms will be from the northern Niagara Frontier east and northeast toward far northern Jefferson County and the SL Valley closer to the cold front and higher shear values. The other main threat will be heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms that do develop for which WPC has a Marginal Risk in place. Best potential for isolated flooding will lie along the lake breeze convergence boundary just south of Lake Ontario where the highest risk for training storms exists. Later this evening and tonight, the cold front will move southeast across the area producing additional showers and scattered thunderstorms. Although the risk of severe weather will be low, heavy rainfall will still be a risk with any thunderstorms. Cold front will reside just south of the area Friday, bringing continued chances for a few showers and thunderstorms again Friday afternoon, with potential for heavy rainfall with any storms across the western Southern Tier. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will largely provide our region with fair dry VFR weather through sunrise...save for some valley fog and associated MVFR/IFR across portions of the Southern Tier. As wepush into the daylight hours any valley fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise with renewed diurnal heating/mixing...with dry/VFR conditions otherwise expected to continue through midday. An initial weak cold front will then slowly approach our region from the northwest this afternoon...with this and developing lake breeze boundaries interacting with modest diurnally-driven instability and leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the lee of the lakes. These will become possible first at KIAG/KJHW during the early to mid afternoon...then at KROC/KBUF/KART as we push through the late afternoon and very early evening hours. Brief/localized reductions to MVFR/IFR will be possible within these...with the greatest potential for any convection/restrictions found at KIAG. Tonight the initial cold front will slowly ease its way south across the area...while generating scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. These may produce associated brief/ localized restrictions...with general VFR ceilings to start the night otherwise deteriorating to a mix of MVFR/IFR as a weak upslope northwesterly flow develops behind the cold front. Outlook... Friday...Additional showers and thunderstorms likely at times across interior sections with associated restrictions...otherwise a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings improving to VFR/MVFR. Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... A brief period of 10-15 knot winds ahead of an approaching cold front may cause some light to low-end moderate chop on the lakes this afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise, mainly light winds and negligible waves are expected through the end of the work week. A few stronger thunderstorms will be possible on Lake Ontario later this afternoon into the early evening, capable of producing locally higher winds and waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JJR MARINE...JM  739 FXUS62 KMLB 090655 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 255 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida from 11 AM through 8 PM for peak afternoon heat indices up to 110F. - Hot through Saturday, especially across the north where high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will keep heat indices in the mid to upper 100s, with widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts. - Below normal rain chances 30% or less continue through Friday, then rain chances pick back up closer to normal 30% to 60% from the weekend into early next week, before decreasing again. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Tonight...The weak surface pressure ridge axis from the Atlantic High slowing lifts from South Florida towards North Florida, under a high pressure ridge in roughly the same spot. Weak southerly low level flow becomes more variable, allowing the sea breezes to march inland at roughly the same rate, slightly favoring the west coast breeze and the east coast breeze from the Cape south, and colliding across the interior late in the evening. Dry air continues to filter in, knocking rain chances back to just 20% from the Orlando Metro to the Cape north (with the sea breeze collision being the primary focus), and less than 20% to the south. The environment will support rapid updraft growth for deep convection that manages to develop, and the dry air could enhance downdrafts. Primary storm hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds 40-55 mph (with a very low chance for locally high winds to 60 mph), and torrential downpours. Generally expected a late start for storms after 6 PM, but a few could pop around 4 PM. While drier as has lowered dew points a few degrees, temperatures are forecast to creep up a few more degrees, with afternoon highs in the M-U90s across most of East Central Florida, within a couple degrees of daily high temperatures records for a few locations (see Climate section below). Resulting peak afternoon Heat Indices will be near to above 108F, up to 110F along the I-95 corridor in Volusia, Brevard, and adjacent portions of inland counties. Widespread Major with areas of Extreme HeatRisk impacts are anticipated. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida from 11 AM to 8 PM. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Take frequent hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C or shade if you feel unwell. A Moderate risk of rip currents continues at the beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone. Friday-Saturday...The weak surface ridge axis stays more or less over Central Florida, continuing light southerly to southeasterly flow. Very dry air Friday plus a weak onshore component shifts the meager 20% rain chances well inland for most of the area, except to the south where the arrival of higher moisture increases rain chances to 20-30%. High temperatures remain in the M-U90s for most of the area, but the drier air shaves a few degrees off peak afternoon heat indices Friday, bringing them more into the L-M100s. A bit more moisture filters up into Central Florida Saturday, increasing rain chances closer to normal (30-60%), but also nudging peak afternoon heat indices back up towards Heat Advisory criteria near or above 107F. Widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts are forecast both days. Typical afternoon thunderstorm risks continue, though Friday will again be conditional on storms developing. Sunday-Wednesday...Some relief from the above normal heat is expected next week (not that normal Florida heat isn't still gross) as a trough building into the western Atlantic suppresses the ridge at the surface and aloft, and drier than normal air continues to advect from the south. Despite the drier air, upper level support from the trough and a front with its associated moisture sagging into the Deep South will support near to slightly above normal rain chances and higher cloud cover, knocking afternoon highs closer to normal in the L-M90s (for what that's worth). Widespread Moderate with areas of Major HeatRisk impacts are forecast, along with peak afternoon heat indices in the L-M100s. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Monday...Generally favorable winds and seas. Weak pressure ridge extending to Florida from the Atlantic High will meander north and south across the peninsula through the period, shifting flow from offshore (S-SW) today to more longshore (SW-SE) Friday and Saturday, then back more offshore early next week. The sea breeze circulation will back winds to the S-SE from the afternoon into the early overnight. Wind speeds 5-15 kts, occasionally pushing over 15 kts from the Cape north in the late evenings. Seas 1-3 feet. Low (20% or less) chances for showers and lightning storms through Friday, then chances increase closer to normal (30-60%) through the weekend into early next week, starting near the coast Saturday and Sunday, then expanding into the offshore waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers and lightning storms. Light and variable winds are expected to increase from SW at 6-12kts before backing SE into the aftn/eve except at KLEE. Winds are expected to become light and variable into the overnight. VCTS is forecast at the TAF sites north of KMLB after 20Z/21Z. The potential exists for an isolated strong storm. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 97 (2202) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 96 (2203) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 96 (2204) 97 (2202) 96 (2200) Fort Pierce 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 95 76 95 76 / 20 20 0 0 MCO 97 76 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 MLB 93 77 92 78 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 94 77 92 77 / 0 0 20 0 LEE 96 78 97 78 / 20 20 20 20 SFB 97 76 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 ORL 97 77 96 77 / 20 20 10 10 FPR 93 76 91 77 / 0 0 20 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Fehling  823 FXUS63 KIND 090657 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 257 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible, mainly this evening into tonight, with damaging winds and heavy rain/localized flooding the primary threats - Additional rain possible at times Friday through the weekend with localized flooding possible - Warmer and drier again next week, though with more modest humidity than experienced the first week of the month && .DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 TODAY AND TONIGHT - Aside from some patchy fog in the outlying and favored areas in the light winds and high humidity airmass, expect generally quiet weather this morning, with thunderstorm chances ramping up through the day as the airmass destabilizes and a convectively enhanced upper level disturbance approaches the area. CAMs in general are depicting the evolution of one or more clusters of storms into a linear structure late in the day into the overnight hours tonight, with primarily a concern for a few damaging wind gusts. Deep layer shear is modest but sufficient, and may be enhanced slightly beyond what guidance depicts by the aforementioned MCV. Diurnal timing is not ideal though moderately strong instability should remain in place into the overnight hours - approaching and possibly exceeding MUCAPE values of 2000 J/kg. Seasonably high wet-bulb zero values will limit hail threat to primarily small hail in the stronger cores absent any more discrete convection, which appears unlikely, and while a brief QLCS spin-up cannot be ruled out, damaging winds in a seasonable setting of a cold-pool driven MCS will be the primary concern. Despite precipitable water values approaching 2 inches, well in excess of the climatological 90th percentile, the (mostly) progressive CAM solutions do give some optimism that despite undeniable heavy rain potential, hydrologic threat should be relatively limited with today and tonight's convection, though mesoscale reorientation of the low level environment in the form of boundaries and the larger scale low to mid level flow will always be a concern in such setups, and the slight risk for excessive rainfall day one is certainly reasonable. Overall, current expectation is for a broken line of storms to possibly move into central Indiana during the evening hours, perhaps just prior to nightfall, and push through the area to the east/southeast - with southwestern portions of the area the most likely area for both severe and hydrologic concerns. FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY - Another upper level wave will move slowly through the region Friday into Saturday, though models differ in their handling and intensity of the disturbance. A continued moist airmass will promote at least moderate destabilization, and one or more clusters of storms will be possible Friday into Friday night and perhaps on Saturday as well, though the threat will lessen and shift southward with time, and be focused primarily along remnant boundaries from previous convection, lessening the predictability as time goes on. An isolated strong to severe threat cannot be entirely ruled out, though hydro concerns will likely be slightly more pressing as the area has been decently wet in recent weeks, and the aforementioned plentiful moisture combined with what may be fairly slow storm motions outside of more organized clusters could present a localized flash flood threat - WPC excessive rainfall outlooks outline this well. NEXT WEEK - The predominant story next week will be a reassertion of summertime heat as a brief pseudo-Rex block pattern forms with the western CONUS ridge sliding back eastward atop weak upper level low pressure to our south, gradually reconnecting with the Bermuda high over the southeast. Temperatures will climb back towards the 90 degree mark in spots, though with slightly more reasonable dewpoints than the first week of the month, keeping max apparent temperatures still toasty but far more manageable in the low to mid 90s. The high pressure aloft and at the surface will keep the area dry for the most part, though airmass thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out near peak heating many days. That said, these are quite low predictability days ahead of time and will not merit mentionable PoPs on most days. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1259 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Impacts: - MVFR, TEMPO IFR fog possible near daybreak at the outlying sites - Showers and a few storms possible after 22-00Z at all sites Discussion: Guidance has gotten more aggressive on fog formation overnight, and do see some of the rural sites already seeing visibility restrictions in line with this. Will carry MVFR/TEMPO IFR fog at the 3 outlying sites. IND should be largely protected by the urban heat island and a slight variable breeze overnight. Once fog mixes out, VFR conditions will return and remain throughout the majority of the period, the possible exception being Thursday evening when showers and a few storms are possible at the sites. Will carry VCSH for now owing to uncertainty, but thunderstorm impacts will be at least a possibility at all sites late in the TAF period. Winds will be calm to light and variable, becoming southwesterly (200-230 degrees) during the day on Thursday, with a few gusts into the 15-18KT range possible at most sites. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ AVIATION...Nield DISCUSSION...Nield