186 FXUS61 KILN 090703 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 303 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing of heavy rain potential is coming into somewhat better focus. Also, added mention of drying out and warming up next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms early this morning and then again late tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible south of I-70. 2) A low pressure system will track across the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night bringing more potential for heavy rainfall. 3) Drier and warmer conditions for next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Showers and thunderstorms have developed in the Tri-State with additional showers further east-northeast along a zone of weak convergence. This is also coincident with an axis of higher precipitable water, ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches. There is a subtle short wave moving into central Kentucky that will continue east through the morning. This will cause the showers and storms to shift east with some activity possibly lingering into this afternoon in northeast Kentucky and south central Ohio. Beyond this departing convection, it does not appear that there will be much if any showers or storms through the day with a temporarily less moist air mass moving in. Attention then shifts westward. A convective system will come rolling out of Illinois this evening and approach the region, most likely after midnight, in a weakening state. There is a range of possibilities on how this impacts the region. The HREF and REFS both want to drive more robust convection southeast, thus missing the forecast area to the south. This would mean that showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms would be all that moves into the region late tonight. Precipitable water will rebound, especially south of I-70 where it may range from 1.8 to 2 inches. Thus if any stronger echoes track into the region, there will be a continued concern for locally heavy rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 2) Short wave over the mid Mississippi Valley early Saturday will slowly push east southeast through the day and into Saturday night. Associated surface low will track from western Illinois across southern Indiana into central Kentucky. Showers and storms will occur with and in advance of the low with a more focused axis in the vicinity of a weak warm front/surface trough extending out ahead of the low. Precipitable water will be decreasing from north to south during this period. But heavy rainfall may still occur since more concentrated/robust activity is possible, and that may still be tapping into the northern gradient of the departing very moist air mass. This threat will be limited to southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky and Ohio counties near the Ohio River. KEY MESSAGE 3) Large mid level high pressure system that will be developing over the northern/central Plains will eventually extend eastward into the region. This will result in dry weather for early to mid week. In addition, temperatures will trend upwards with readings eventually getting into the upper 80s to lower 90s. At this point, the probability of heat indices even approaching advisory levels is very low, less than 20 percent. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and storms in the Cincinnati area to start will move off early in the period. In the wake of this, there could be some MVFR visibility restrictions in fog at KLUK. Otherwise, VFR will prevail with varying amounts of clouds in the 4-7kft range throughout. The chance of any additional convection affecting any of the sites is quite low until closer to 06Z Friday. Outlook...Thunderstorms are possible late tonight through Saturday night. MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight into Friday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible late Friday night into Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...35  139 FXUS61 KOKX 090702 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 302 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and localized flash flood threat during the afternoon and evening both today and Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy today and Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. 2) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... There continues to remain good agreement on Mid-Mississippi River valley closed upper low shearing towards the region later today, with a resultant weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid-Atlantic, and lee/pre-frontal surface trough developing and approaching from the west. These features should be able to provide a trigger/focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across NYC/NJ metro and N&W in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment. Severe threat should be limited in this environment, but can't rule out an isolated damaging pulse wet microburst threat, especially if the lower atmosphere is able to destabilize more than forecast. Environment is more conducive to an isolated flash flood threat with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and potential for briefly back building storms. Higher flash flood threat appears to be across SE PA/S NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Still an isolated flash flood risk is signaled for the NYC/NE NJ metro region in the high res- guidance, depicted thru being on the edge of HREF 10% ensemble prob for 3"/3hr, and HiRes ARW and NSSL WRF indicating max NY/NJ metro neighborhood value of 2 1/2 to 3" in 3/hr in WPC URRD. Given the continued signals in the hi-res guidance, will continue to address in HWO. Diminishing severe/flash flood threat in the late evening in wake of trough. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a stronger cold front approaching the region in the afternoon/evening. Trigger and focus is once again there for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri aft/eve, with an isolated severe/flash flood threat. A slightly better severe threat on Friday aft/eve with 30-35kt deep layer shear profile to complement marginal to locally moderate instability environment. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Flash flood threat looks a bit lower than Thursday with slightly lower PWATS (mid-level drying in wake of Thursday pre-frontal trough) and quicker anticipated storm movement. Flash flood threat will ultimately be contingent on moisture pooling ahead of cold front, storm coverage, and potential SW to NE training along frontal boundary. Hi-res guidance is hinting at a potential for more widespread convective activity as compared to Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate to near seasonable levels today with highs in the middle 80s. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s on Friday, with max heat indices reaching the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the terminals this afternoon. Isolated showers/thunderstorms expected with the best chance being across the NYC terminals this afternoon/evening. Lower confidence elsewhere with PROB30 groups or no mention at all. Have narrowed the timing from about 19Z - 00Z, but still some uncertainty in the timing. MVFR or lower possible in any thunderstorm. Winds will generally be less than 10 kt from the S/SW, increasing to 10-15kts Thursday afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of convection today. A few gusts S/SW 15-20kt possible this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Night through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. There is also a low chance for MVFR/IFR across the eastern terminals Thursday night. Saturday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected today and Fri with modest S/SW flow of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into Monday with high pressure building towards and then over the waters. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV/MW AVIATION...DBR MARINE...NV/MW  158 FXUS62 KGSP 090702 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 302 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday before much cooler and possibly below normal highs for mid-July return Sunday into Tuesday as cold air damming develops behind a cold front. 2. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be mostly confined to western North Carolina again today before better coverage of diurnal activity returns Friday. A cold front brings even better shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend into Monday before drier conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday before much cooler and possibly below normal highs for mid-July return Sunday into Tuesday as cold air damming develops behind a cold front. Bermuda high keeps hot and humid conditions around east of the mountains through Saturday. Although highs east of the mountains will rebound into the low to mid 90s today and tomorrow, dewpoints should mix out enough each afternoon allowing heat indices to remain below Heat Advisory criteria (<105 degrees). Highs will be cooler Saturday as the Bermuda High gets nudged southward by a cold front approaching from the north. However, afternoon temps east of the mountains will still climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices ranging mostly from the lower to upper 90s. A cold front will bring much needed relief from the heat starting Sunday. The front should push south of the GSP forecast area by daybreak Monday. Behind the front, cold air damming will gradually develop as surface high pressure centers itself over the Northeast. Cold air damming looks to be strongest on Monday and could linger through Tuesday. This will allow below normal highs to return late this weekend into early next week, with Monday potentially seeing highs drop down to 5-10 degrees below normal. Highs appear to mostly range from the lower to mid 80s east of the mountains each day. Unfortunately the break from the summer heat will be brief, as highs east of the mountains on Wednesday and Thursday will climb back into the low to mid 90s as an upper ridge builds over the central and eastern US. By Thursday we should see highs return to around 5 degrees above normal for mid-July. Key message 2: Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be mostly confined to western North Carolina again today before better coverage of diurnal activity returns Friday. A cold front brings even better shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend into Monday before drier conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday. Diurnal convection returns today, mainly across western North Carolina again. However, 00Z CAMs do show the potential for some isolated convection to develop across northeast Georgia and the South Carolina Upstate. The severe weather threat will remain very low today like we saw yesterday. However, a few strong, sub-severe storms are possible during peak heating hours. Convective coverage increases slightly on Friday and with CAMs showing the potential for more organized convection to develop, the severe threat will increase a bit compared to today. The main hazard with any severe storms that develop the next two days will be damaging wind gusts. A cold front will approach out of the north Saturday into early Sunday before tracking across the forecast area late Sunday into early Monday morning. This front will bring even better coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially Sunday into Monday. Confidence on any severe weather developing with this front remains low, especially Sunday into Monday with cold air damming expected to develop. With mainly diurnal convection likely to develop again Saturday (as the front remains well to the north), a low-end isolated severe threat will continue with damaging winds being the main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through most of the 06Z TAF period outside of the potential for morning mountain valley fog and stratus and scattered TSRA this afternoon/early evening. KAVL will have the potential to see LIFR cigs and IFR fog develop closer to daybreak so have a TEMPO from 09Z-12Z. The NC terminals will once again have the best potential to see TSRA develop this afternoon/early evening so went with PROB30s at KCLT, KAVL, and KHKY. Although 00Z high-res guidance shows the potential for a few isolated TSRA to develop across the SC terminals, confidence is too low on whether this activity would track directly over KGSP, KGMU, or KAND. Thus, maintained dry conditions at the SC terminals for now. Winds at KAVL will be mostly NW/WNW while east of the mountains will be mostly W/WSW through the period. Breezy winds will return again today, mainly east of the mountains, with gusts ranging from mostly 18-22 kts. Gusts will diminish around or just after 00Z Friday. Outlook: Better coverage of SHRA/TSRA returns for all terminals Friday into Monday. Drier conditions should develop Tuesday into Wednesday. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in locations that see appreciable rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ AR  349 FXUS65 KBYZ 090706 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 106 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Trending drier today; a chance of thunderstorms over the east and south. - Record hot this weekend into early next week! High temperatures will exceed 100 degrees most locations over the weekend, and temps on Sunday may challenge all-time records. && .DISCUSSION... Through Wednesday... Any lingering convection from the shortwave that brought showers and thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening will diminish early this morning. A shortwave moving from west to east through zonal flow over the region will bring a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southern mountains/foothills and over far southeast MT during the afternoon and evening. An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible over the far southeast during the afternoon and evening, though the better instability and shear is to the east into the Dakotas. Highs are forecast to range from the 80s to lower 90s today. As ridging builds into the region Friday, temperatures will warm further into the 90s for many places. Weak energy moving in from the southwest may be enough to generate some high-based convection late in the day evening. Heading into the weekend into early next week, there continues to be high confidence in strong ridging and anomalously high heights building over the region. Ensembles suggest 500mb heights approaching 596-600 dm for Sunday. Very warm temperatures aloft (700mb temperatures near or exceeding 20C by Sunday and 850 mb temperatures of 35-40C) will allow high temperatures to reach the 100s Saturday, with moderate chances at locations from Billings east reaching 110F Sunday. Record to near record highs, and even all-time record highs could be threatened on Sunday. Very dry conditions will accompany the heat, with RH values down into the single digits and teens Saturday and Sunday. Prepare for the extreme heat this weekend, as overnight low temperatures in the 70s will provide little relief. An Extreme Heat Watch remains in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday night. Heading into early next week, the ridge is progged by ensembles to shift east a bit, allowing temperatures to cool slightly (highs in the 90s), and monsoonal moisture to move in from the southwest into western and central portions of the area. This would allow for low to moderate shower/thunderstorm chances to return to the area. Something to watch over the coming days. Below are the all-time record high temperatures at each of our climate stations: Billings, MT 108F Livingston, MT 105F Miles City, MT 111F Sheridan, WY 107F Baker, MT 109F STP .AVIATION... Slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms for Sheridan County Wyoming and Carter County Montana. The best chances for thunderstorms are in the 18-00Z timeframe. The only TAF site that could see thunderstorms is KSHR. VFR conditions are expected Thursday for nearly all of Southeast Montana. Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 092 063/097 065/104 069/107 072/100 071/094 068/094 1/U 10/U 20/G 00/G 00/U 11/B 42/T LVM 090 054/094 056/102 060/101 063/095 062/091 059/093 1/U 01/U 20/G 00/G 01/U 23/T 43/T HDN 092 061/098 063/104 067/109 070/101 070/097 067/096 0/U 10/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 01/B 32/T MLS 092 061/099 066/105 070/108 075/102 070/096 068/097 1/U 00/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 01/B 32/W 4BQ 091 061/097 067/104 070/106 075/101 071/099 069/094 1/U 12/W 20/G 00/G 00/G 00/U 32/W BHK 090 057/094 064/100 067/104 071/100066/096 064/092 2/U 11/U 10/U 00/G 00/U 11/U 31/B SHR 088 056/094 060/102 063/105 068/099 066/096 064/094 2/T 11/U 10/G 00/N 00/U 02/T 34/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Saturday morning through late Sunday night FOR ZONES 29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235. WY...Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Saturday morning through late Sunday night FOR ZONE 199. && $$ weather.gov/billings  358 FXUS65 KLKN 090707 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1207 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms coverage Thursday is expected to be near the Utah border * Temperatures will remain above seasonal values this week * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon from Friday through Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: For Thursday, drier air will continue migrating east across the area. Kept isolated showers and thunderstorms in far eastern Nevada. Otherwise, most locations will be on the dry side. Highs will be in the mid 90s with overnight lows in the 50s. Friday through early next week. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected during this time frame but temperatures will be warming in response to building heights. The heat is expected to commence on Friday with highs reaching the mid 90s to low 100s, with a few degrees of additional warming on Saturday. Record high temperatures for Elko, Eureka, and Ely may be met during this time. This is leading to minor to moderate HeatRisk impacts across northern and central Nevada with the increasing probability of heat headlines needed for portions of the area through the weekend, including Sunday. Though Sunday could see a degree or two of cooling, the main heat impacts remain. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Afternoon breezes to 20 mph will be possible over the area. Look for additional degrees of cooling Monday and Tuesday as a large and expansive upper ridge dominates the weather across the United States. Models are showing a southerly fetch of moisture, which will increase the chances for thunderstorms over the forecast area early next week. Will need to continue watching for possible fire weather concerns. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The PoP, weather, sky and wind grids were adjusted for the short term forecast due to fire weather concerns. High confidence on the upper ridge strengthening late in the week, with high confidence on HeatRisk for Friday through the weekend. Confidence is low on the timing and coverage of storms for early next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will persist at all locations. Winds will be light with gusts to 22KT possible. AMD NOT SKED continues for KEKO due to communications issue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Through the rest of the week temperatures continue to rise increasing HeatRisk by the weekend when afternoon highs across all fire weather zones are expected to climb to triple digits. Elevated fire weather conditions due to winds and low relative humidity are a possibility across northern and portions of central Nevada Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be hot with minimum relative humidity values between 4 and 8%. This will need to be watch for the potential of headline fire products. Lastly, models are showing a southerly fetch of moisture, which will increase the chances for thunderstorms over the forecast area early next week. Will need to continue watching for possible fire weather concerns. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86  432 FXUS63 KABR 090709 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 209 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect Thursday afternoon through evening for north central and central South Dakota. Hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main threats. - A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits Sunday through Tuesday. This level of heat may cause widespread heat related impacts particularly for those without adequate cooling and those sensitive to heat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 High pressure center to the north promotes light winds this morning, shifting from northerly to southerly this morning through this afternoon as the high pressure center continues to progress eastward. The light winds and recent moisture may support fog formation this morning, particularly over the James River Valley and on the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau. Mainly high clouds this evening, which should be enough for radiative cooling to be sufficient for full saturation as well. Fog may become dense at times, and visibility may drop below a mile in some places. Focus then shifts to the potential severe weather risk this afternoon and evening. The main threat area will be over north central and a central South Dakota, where a Slight to Marginal Risk is in place. CAPE/Shear combination of 1000-2000 J/kg and roughly 30 knots will be present, supporting severe hail as a threat. Model soundings are also fairly consistent in resolving strong DCAPE of roughly 1500 J/kg and low-level lapse rates near dry adiabatic, meaning that severe wind will also be a threat. Tornado risk appears to be minimal at this point, and the heaviest storms will mainly steer clear of the areas that received flooding with Tuesday night's storms, so flooding is not a major concern. The exception to this would be along the Campbell/Walworth County border north of Selby, which was the area over north central South Dakota with the most saturated soils. While the bulk of the severe threat will be during the afternoon and evening hours, there is some signal in the high- resolution guidance for some showers to weak thunderstorms to continue through the overnight. Upper-level ridge builds over the region beginning this weekend. This ridging will allow a warmer airmass to take hold of the region, leading to a warmup to temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal. By Sunday and Monday, much of the forecast area will have the potential to reach highs of 100 degrees or higher. Latest NBM probabilities of highs on Sunday and Monday reaching 100 degrees or better have trended downward over the latest forecast cycle. Highest probabilities on Sunday are highest along and west of the Missouri River, ranging from 50 to 70 percent. Moving east, probabilities drop off to less than 10 percent east of the James River. A bit of an increase on Monday in the 50 to 70 percent probability range, which extends from the James River and west. East of the James, probability of 100 degrees drops to around 10 to 30 percent. Ensemble clusters show no signs of the upper-level ridge deteriorating or progressing eastward, meaning that these above normal temperatures are likely to stick around through next week. By Monday and Tuesday, the NWS Heat Risk shows high probabilities of reaching the Major Stage. This indicates the potential for widespread heat related impacts, particularly for those without adequate cooling and those sensitive to heat. Pockets of Extreme Heat Risk may be possible as well as the week progresses, the highest level on the scale. This indicates the potential for extended periods of heat related impacts, and caution should be taken during these times. A Heat Headline will more than likely be needed for the start of next week, but nothing will be issued at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG There could be some sub-VFR vsbys in fog at KABR/KATY (perhaps even some spotty MVFR stratus/cigs) by sunrise Thursday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are currently forecast during the TAF period. Closer to the end of the TAF valid period, some showers/storms out west may be rolling into the KMBG/KPIR terminals. Have introduced some PROB30 mention for this potential. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...10  462 FXUS61 KCLE 090709 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 309 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. The potential for rain on Saturday across our southern counties has trended slightly higher. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area late today through Friday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated damaging winds across Northwest Ohio, Lake Erie, and the eastern lakeshore late today into tonight. Some thunderstorms can also produce heavy rain through Friday. 2) Rain chances may linger into Saturday before a drying trend this weekend into early next week. Temperatures trend above average early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and gradually sag across the area Friday afternoon and evening. Aloft, a shortwave is tracking across the upper Ohio Valley this morning. A northern stream shortwave tracks across the southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Another weak shortwave will track through the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday morning. The combination of the front, shortwaves, and the return of a moist and unstable airmass will allow for occasional opportunities for showers and storms through Friday. We will largely start dry today, but may have a couple of showers from eastern OH into northwestern PA early in proximity to the Ohio Valley shortwave. Will then turn attention to extreme Northeast OH/Northwest PA early to mid-afternoon, when a lake breeze pushes inland and potentially sparks isolated to widely scattered showers/storms. Otherwise, greater rain potential waits until closer to this evening. Storms are still favored to develop in closer proximity to the front across parts of southern MI, northern IN, and far Northwest OH by late this afternoon as we reach peak heating and as a shortwave begins tracking across the southern Great Lakes. This activity will try spreading east-southeast into the area through this evening, though there is not great agreement on how far this activity can progress as it outruns the front and greatest instability. Suspect that if activity is able to organize into a cluster that it should spread at least as far east-southeast as the I-71 corridor through the evening if not a bit farther, though models show considerable disagreement on that. After perhaps a lull following the evening convection, another uptick is favored overnight as the next shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley and as the front continues slowly approaching. This uptick in showers and storms may linger into Friday morning, especially from eastern OH into PA. We'll likely see activity exit east with the shortwave Friday morning, but with the front still sagging through the area and a humid airmass in place am expecting at least scattered re-development along and ahead of the front by early afternoon, with activity continuing through the afternoon before exiting south or weakening Friday night. The SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather in the form of damaging winds across Northwest OH, Lake Erie, and the adjacent eastern lakeshore for this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG (with a tall/skinny CAPE profile) and 20-25kt of bulk shear may support loosely organized convection, with strong heating and well-mixed low- levels suggesting potential for cold pool development and organization with any clusters of storms...this can support the isolated damaging wind threat. Severe weather is unlikely on Friday due to weaker heating and minimal shear. Otherwise, the other concern is potential for locally heavy rain as precipitable waters climb to 1.75-2.00" tonight into Friday. This amount of moisture, combined withskinny instability profiles and high freezing levels, can support very efficient rain rates within convection tonight and Friday. The main concern may be overnight tonight into Friday morning when there is some signal for training convection along or just ahead of the sagging front. With plenty of disagreement on the overall evolution of convection on hi-res models, it's hard to be too confident if or where any heavy rain and potential for localized flash flooding would play out. Still, some potential is evident and the WPC has the area highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding for tonight and Friday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s today before scaling back a few degrees into the low to mid 80s on Friday. Overnight lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dew points will climb into the upper 60s to near 70 tonight and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2... A shortwave and low pressure will dive through the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night. The front will stall close to our southern counties late tonight and Saturday, and the overall setup has trended a bit farther north in recent model runs. Potential for at least some showers is enough to warrant a 20-40% forecast mention across our south on Saturday. Also have a small shower mention along parts of the western lakeshore late Friday night into Saturday, as some models suggest enough moisture for a few lake-enhanced sprinkles or showers in the ENE flow. The forecast trends drier Saturday night into Sunday, though it's worth noting that some models hint at a few isolated showers on Sunday owing to high pressure building in slower than expected and low pressure still drifting through the Ohio Valley...one small thing to monitor. High pressure does finally build in more firmly by Sunday night and lingers through the first half of the week, providing for a prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather. Temperatures are expected to warm above normal for the first half of next week, potentially into the 90s for highs, especially across Northwest Ohio. There remains a fair amount of ensemble spread regarding how quickly ridging over the central U.S. expands east next week, which will have influence on our temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR conditions are largely expected through most of the TAF period with mid to upper-level clouds streaming across the area, and conditions too dry for fog this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from the northwest Thursday evening and overnight, though low coverage of storms and uncertainty in timing will limit the inclusion of TSRA or non-VFR conditions in most TAFs. Best confidence is at KTOL where most models have convection moving in during the afternoon, when peak heating will contribute to the best chance of seeing lighting (though still relatively low so only included a PROB30). Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Quiet marine conditions expected as weak high pressure lingers over the area this morning. Southwest winds around 5-10 knots become west during the day with waves generally 2 feet or less. A cold front will sag south across Lake Erie tonight into Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near the western basin late this afternoon before coverage increases across the lake tonight. There is a low chance of thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds and briefly higher wave heights. Winds will turn west to northwest behind the front Friday, then northeast this weekend as high pressure builds north of the lake. Wave should remain 2 feet or less through Friday, with 1 to 3 feet possible in the western basin this weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Saunders  584 FXUS61 KCTP 090710 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 310 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *Flood Watch issued for this afternoon for the Lower Susquehanna Valley. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Torrential downpours and strong to locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may impact portions of south central PA this afternoon and evening. 2) Unsettled weather continues into the first half of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Torrential downpours and strong to locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may impact portions of south central PA Thursday afternoon and evening. Most CAM guidance shows numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon over south-central PA as a shortwave tracks toward the region from the Ohio Valley. These storms will be in an environment that is highly supportive of very heavy rainfall with PWATs in excess of 2 inches and tall, skinny CAPE profiles. One hour flash flood guidance is as low as 1 to 1.5 inches in some locations, so flash flooding will be possible in areas that see repeated rounds of slow moving thunderstorms. There is growing confidence that southeastern portions of the forecast area will have the best chance at seeing flash flooding, so we have issued a Flood Watch for the Lower Susquehanna Valley that will be in effect from noon through midnight. While flash flooding will be the primary hazard with thunderstorms this afternoon, there is still some potential for storms to produce a few strong to severe wind gusts. The best deep layer shear is expected to remain to our south, but there could be just enough to support some organization of storms across southern PA. SPC has maintained a slight risk that just barely clips southern York and Lancaster Counties and they have expanded the marginal risk to cover much of south-central Pennsylvania. KEY MESSAGE 2: Unsettled weather continues into the first half of the weekend. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday ahead of a cold front that will slowly cross the region into Saturday. Isolated flash flooding will be the primary concern as the environment will still be supportive of very heavy rainfall. A few showers remain possible on Saturday across the southern half of the area as the cold front will be very slow to move to our south. Sunday looks like a much drier day as the front finally moves off to the south and a strong ridge develops over the middle of the country. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Over the next few hours, visibility restrictions will begin to intrude on Central PA TAf sites. Highest confidence in these restrictions are at BFD, JST, AOO, and UNV as skies clear with dry air filing in over the western 2/3rds of the Commonwealth tonight. Restrictions at IPT, MDT, and MDT later tonight and into the morning are more likely in the form of ceiling lowerings. These are most likely in the form of MVFR restrictions although may boarder on IFR at MDT and LNS as more moisture gets pumped in from the south. As the sun comes out tomorrow, this will mix out widespread restrictive mist/fog and low cloud ceilings. Restrictions are likely to return in the form of numerous showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave trough moves in from the Ohio River Valley. Greatest coverage of storms is likely in the southern tier of the state, particularly at MDT and LNS in the afternoon. With tall CAPE profiles, minimal capping, and PWATs approaching 2", repeating, scattered, heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible, leading to visibility restrictions as they pass. Isolated instances of gusty winds may also accompany these storms. In the wake of this convective activity, the moist low levels may lead to mist/fog developing over Southeast PA. At this time, the best chances for these restrictions from this fog/mist appear to be after 06Z so may introduce mentions in future TAF packages. Outlook... Fri...T-storm impacts likely during the afternoon. AM low clouds and fog possible. Sat...Reduced chance and more limited coverage of PM showers/t-storm. Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR/no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for PAZ056-057-059-063>066. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Bauco DISCUSSION...Bauco AVIATION...Teare/Lambrech  925 FXUS62 KMHX 090713 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 313 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the northern coastal waters starting this evening and ending early Friday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dangerous heat and humidity persists across ENC into this weekend. 2) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms later this weekend into early next week as instability builds across ENC. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Previously mentioned stalled frontal boundary is beginning to lift north this morning with some isolated showers and a rumble of thunder or two possible across the northern zones and OBX going into daybreak. Not expecting anything strong with this morning activity as anything that develops will be elevated in nature. As the front lifts north, light but steady S'rly flow is forecast to develop across ENC with temps remaining steady or gradually climbing into daybreak. As we get into today, expect another hot day across ENC, though slightly less humid. Expecting highs to get into the mid to upper 90s across inland zones and low 90s along the coast and OBX. Dewpoints will remain in the 70s generally east of Hwy 17 as we mix rather efficiently across the NW'rn Coastal Plain allowing for dewpoints in the 60s here. Overall this will result in heat indices reaching 105-110F across Duplin County NE'wards to Dare County with heat indices closer to 95-104 to the north and west of these zones. As a result have kept the previously issued Heat Advisory in place with just the far NW'rn counties not in a heat advisory today. Drier conditions expected today and Friday with WSW flow aloft limited upper level forcing but could see isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours each day. Have kept SChc PoPs in the forecast today to account for this low end threat. SW flow will bring increasing low level thicknesses, warming temperatures, and a High Heat Risk across the region on Friday with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s for coastal areas south of Oregon Inlet. Heat Indices are expected to climb to around 100-110 once again Fri afternoon generally in the same areas that are seeing heat advisories today so another heat advisory for Fri across portions of ENC can't be completely ruled out. There is some uncertainty with the dewpoint forecast Fri afternoon, especially inland, as some guidance brings deeper mixing allowing dewpoints to drop well into the 60s inland from the coast, which could keep heat indices from reaching advisory criteria. Temps have trended down slightly for Saturday with most of the area remaining in a Moderate Heat Risk. KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper level trough/mid level shortwave and surface front approaching from the north and west this weekend will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday across ENC. Latest trends is for the front to approach our northern zones Saturday evening and push through the area Sun morning. This would act to bring best precip chances to ENC Sat afternoon and overnight with chances then waning through the day Sun from north to south. While instability has trended down, generally ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE Sat and 750-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE Sun, with greater upper level support and deep layer shear values closer to 25-30 kts this weekend across ENC, could see a few stronger storms this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A much quieter evening tonight as a stalled front over ENC has begun lifting north. There are some isolated showers/tstms noted along and to the north of this front across our northern zones and OBX but this activity is forecast to continue east through daybreak and push offshore soon. This activity is not anticipated to be strong but could bring some brief reductions in vis/ceilings to portions of the OBX and adjacent airports. TAF sites remain precip free through tonight. However, could see a mix of patchy fog and low stratus across inland zones and TAF sites into daybreak with a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions currently noted across ENC as of this update. Leftover fog/stratus quickly dissipates around 12/13Z today with VFR conditions then forecast for Thursday and Thurs night. There will be an isolated chance at some storms Thurs afternoon with the sea breeze. SW winds will gust around 20 kt Thurs afternoon before easing Thurs night. Outlook (Friday through Monday): Mainly iso to widely sct activity expected Friday with a lower threat for sub-VFR conditions. However, as we get into the weekend as an upper level trough and associated surface front approaches increasing chances for showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions will be noted. Could see improving conditions on Monday. && .MARINE... Not much change in the forecast since the previous update as a stalled frontal boundary located across the area has begun to lift N'wards this morning. A few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across our waters this morning but this activity should quickly exit the region by mid morning as the front lifts north of ENC. Seeing widespread 5-10 kt winds varying from E north of the front to to SSW south of the front across the waters this morning with 2-4 ft seas across our coastal waters. Expect light winds and low seas to persist through the morning today. However, as we get into the afternoon hours expect the thermal trough to develop tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in SW'rly winds increasing to around 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt with seas building to 4-7 ft. Winds will be strongest across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters and have kept SCA's for these areas while also adding the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet north to Duck. Winds relax briefly Friday morning, but then tighten again Friday afternoon as a front approaches from the NW with SCA conditions expected to redevelop over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Outlook (Saturday through Monday): Once again not much change in the forecast as conditions gradually improve Saturday, then will see a backdoor cold front drop through the waters late Saturday night and Sunday with winds becoming NE around 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. A weak area of low pressure may form along the stalled front to the south Monday keeping E-NEly flow across the waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ045>047-080-081-090-092-094-193>196-198-199- 203>205. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ158. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCF AVIATION...RCF MARINE...RCF  896 FXUS63 KPAH 090712 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 212 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms late this afternoon and into the early overnight. The main threats would be damaging winds and heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms on Friday due to a similar set up to today. - Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are possible through the weekend. Storm total amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches are possible. A Flood Watch is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon through Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 As an upper wave weakens and shifts east today a sfc warm front lifts north through the area and begins to wash out. This will push dewpoints into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon along with highs in the lower 90s. While the flow aloft remains quasi zonal, a series of kinks in the flow will provide for more active weather today and through the weekend. Today an increase in 0-6 km bulk shear to around 20-30 kts will help storms to be slightly more organized and with daytime heating comes 2,000-3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and steeper low level lapse rates (primarily over the northern half of the CWA, which lends itself to the SPC Slight Risk, level 2 of 5, today). Several CAMs suggest a late day evolution of a linear system of storms along what is left of the warm front (a low level convergence zone) over the northern half of the CWA. Primary threats would be damaging winds and heavy rainfall. A similar set up is responsible for the SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) tomorrow. Continued rounds of heavy rainfall are expected through the weekend. Should these train over the same areas, localized flooding will be a concern. Storm total rainfall of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts to around 3-5 inches are possible. This is the reason a Flood Watch is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon through Saturday night. Looking into next week, upper ridging establishes across the upper Midwest, this means the majority of the week looks drier with highs back to around average. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 MVFR vsbys are possible late night into the early morning hours. Low-end VFR clouds increase during the day, with spotty afternoon showers and a few storms. A partial or extended line of thunderstorms moves southeastward through the Quad State during the evening hours, bringing moderate to heavy rain and vsbys of MVFR/IFR (brief LIFR conditions may be possible). Some strong to severe storms are possible, mainly in the evening hours. Calm winds overnight increase to 6-8 kts out of the SSW during the day with gusts generally limited to thunderstorms. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ this afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022. && $$ DISCUSSION...HICKFORD AVIATION...ATL  972 FXUS66 KOTX 090715 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1215 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather conditions through the weekend. - Breezy winds through the Cascade gaps Thursday and Friday each afternoon and evening. - Breezy winds become more widespread Saturday afternoon with the strongest winds down the Okanogan Valley. - Warming trend early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend due to low humidity and breezy winds. A broad ridge building over the west-central U.S. early next week will bring warming temperatures across the Inland Northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday through Saturday: The region remains under zonal flow aloft through early Friday. Onshore flow into western WA will tighten the pressure gradient across the Cascades each afternoon and evening as cool marine air banks up against the mountains, resulting in recurring breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps. Relative humidity values will drop into the teens daily. Friday afternoon into Saturday, a low pressure system off the British Columbia coast shifts northeastward, placing the Inland Northwest under southwesterly flow and putting the region directly under the jet stream. This will generate more widespread breezy southwest winds. Saturday afternoon and evening, the Okanogan Valley looks like the primary area of concern with sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph coinciding with RH values in the low to mid teens. Thus, this area will have to be monitored for critical fire weather conditions. Sunday through Wednesday: A building ridge over the west-central U.S. broadens early next week, bringing a warming trend to the Inland Northwest. While confidence is growing that areas further east under the ridge axis will experience extreme heat under the ridge, temperatures across the Inland Northwest will see a more subtle increase Monday and Tuesday. Uncertainty increases by mid- week regarding the timing of the next Pacific low. A slower arrival would allow the ridge over the west-central U.S. to build further into our region, resulting in hotter temperatures, while a faster arrival would bring temperatures back down. The Climate Prediction Center is banking on a slower arrival, giving Eastern WA and North ID a 60-70 percent chance of seeing above normal temperatures in the 8-14 day outlook. The NBM isn't ready to fully commit to the hotter solution. The NBM maintains a large spread between 25th and 75th percentile temperatures. Spokane, for example, shows 25th percentile highs in the low 80s next Wednesday and Thursday, while the 75th percentile shows highs in the mid 90s. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: Widespread VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Breezy winds will persist through the Cascade gaps and down the Okanogan Valley including at KEAT and KOMK. Elsewhere, winds have subsided and will generally be 10kts or less through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 87 57 89 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 85 57 88 58 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 83 51 85 53 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 92 60 94 61 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 87 55 8855 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 84 58 87 58 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 82 55 87 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 91 57 91 56 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 90 63 89 61 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 92 58 91 57 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  304 FXUS66 KSGX 090726 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1226 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... The warming trend will continue today with high temperatures for Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. The flow across the area becomes southeasterly for Sunday into next week allowing for an influx of monsoonal moisture. For Sunday into the middle of next week, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms with the greater chances over the mountains and during the afternoon and early evening each day. Increasing humidity will result in warmer nights and higher HeatRisk by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... The warming trend will continue today with high temperatures for Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. There will be widespread major HeatRisk for the lower deserts today with widespread moderate HeatRisk for other inland areas. High temperatures for today will be around average near the coast to 5 to 10 degrees above average for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys. High temperatures for today will range from the 70s near the coast to the mid 90s to 104 for the Inland Empire with 113 to 117 for the lower deserts. Night and morning coastal low clouds will spread into the far western valleys at times into the weekend. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)... As the center of strong high pressure moves to the northeast, the flow across the area will become southeasterly allowing for an influx of monsoonal moisture for late Saturday into Sunday with growing spread by the middle of next week as to what degree that greater moisture persists. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning on Sunday with the greater chances over the mountains and during the afternoon and early evening each day. There will be warming of low temperatures with low temperatures mostly 5 to 10 degrees above average by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. For Wednesday and Thursday of next week, there could be low temperatures for the coast and valleys mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s and in the lower deserts in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Those warming low temperatures will result in higher HeatRisk for most areas with moderate or greater HeatRisk for most areas for Wednesday of next week except at higher elevations in the mountains and near the coast. There will be moderate to major HeatRisk for the lower deserts, the valleys, and inland Orange County. && .AVIATION... 090500Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 800-1200 ft MSL are beginning to move on land, patchy through 08z, filling in coverage up to 20 miles inland by 12z. Low clouds expected to clear 16-18Z. VFR through the evening. Low clouds with similar bases form offshore after 03z. Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink  304 FXUS66 KSGX 090726 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1226 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... The warming trend will continue today with high temperatures for Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. The flow across the area becomes southeasterly for Sunday into next week allowing for an influx of monsoonal moisture. For Sunday into the middle of next week, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms with the greater chances over the mountains and during the afternoon and early evening each day. Increasing humidity will result in warmer nights and higher HeatRisk by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... The warming trend will continue today with high temperatures for Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. There will be widespread major HeatRisk for the lower deserts today with widespread moderate HeatRisk for other inland areas. High temperatures for today will be around average near the coast to 5 to 10 degrees above average for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys. High temperatures for today will range from the 70s near the coast to the mid 90s to 104 for the Inland Empire with 113 to 117 for the lower deserts. Night and morning coastal low clouds will spread into the far western valleys at times into the weekend. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)... As the center of strong high pressure moves to the northeast, the flow across the area will become southeasterly allowing for an influx of monsoonal moisture for late Saturday into Sunday with growing spread by the middle of next week as to what degree that greater moisture persists. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning on Sunday with the greater chances over the mountains and during the afternoon and early evening each day. There will be warming of low temperatures with low temperatures mostly 5 to 10 degrees above average by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. For Wednesday and Thursday of next week, there could be low temperatures for the coast and valleys mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s and in the lower deserts in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Those warming low temperatures will result in higher HeatRisk for most areas with moderate or greater HeatRisk for most areas for Wednesday of next week except at higher elevations in the mountains and near the coast. There will be moderate to major HeatRisk for the lower deserts, the valleys, and inland Orange County. && .AVIATION... 090500Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 800-1200 ft MSL are beginning to move on land, patchy through 08z, filling in coverage up to 20 miles inland by 12z. Low clouds expected to clear 16-18Z. VFR through the evening. Low clouds with similar bases form offshore after 03z. Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink  786 FXUS63 KDVN 090732 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance (20-40%) of scattered showers and isolated storms today and Friday. Heavy downpours and gusty winds up to 40 mph will be the primary hazards. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions likely for much of next week, with increasing heat and humidity levels. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and storms that brought gusty winds between 30-50 mph generally north and west of the I-380 corridor and heavy rain across Benton county last evening, has since dissipated to very light showers. Water vapor imagery shows subtle shortwaves aiding in additional showers developing over central IA and southwest WI at the moment. Finally, a strong LLJ is supporting a large area of storms just west of the KC metro over northeast KS this morning. A cooler and cloudier day is expected with scattered off-and-on showers this morning. In addition, residual outflow boundaries from last night's convection and any breaks in the cloud cover will allow for more scattered storm potential this afternoon/early evening. Trying to pin down where and when these may occur is difficult in this pattern and given the wide array of model solutions decided to go with area- wide 20-40% PoPs. However, not all areas should expect rain today. Forecast soundings show a largely un-capped environment but a rather marginal CAPE/Shear overlap for severe potential locally. Thunder may also be hard to come by with weak mid-level lapse rates and the 00z REFS 1-hr thunder progs (40%) mostly confined to our southeast over central IL. Nonetheless, if a few storms do occur brief heavy downpours and gusty winds up to 40 mph would be possible in the strongest cells. Any activity to diminish quickly after sunset. Temperatures will also be a challenge today, with cloud breaks and precip duration possibly throwing a wrench in the forecast. Highs to top out in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows, to drop into the mid to upper 60s. Friday will see another shortwave move across the central Plains and bring more precipitation chances to the region. However, the timing, strength, and location of this wave is still quite uncertain. Some scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible but the severe weather risk appears minimal at this time. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This Weekend...building heights aloft and high pressure overhead to bring largely dry and seasonable temperatures. Latest NBM loaded some lingering slight/chance PoPs across west central IL on Saturday that is likely a result of the 00z NAM outlier solution. I expect these to decrease further with future forecasts. Humidity levels should also be more tolerable with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Next Week...latest deterministic and ensemble solutions still continue to show a large anomalous upper ridge building into the central CONUS. The center of this high to be over the central Plains and if it gets to 599dam as suggested by the 00z GFS, it could become a top 10 sounding for 500mb heights at OAX or ABR! Locally, this will bring a high confidence forecast of dry conditions, above normal temperatures, and building heat. Factoring in the maturing crops, heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s appear very plausible for several days. More heat headlines may be needed for at least a portion of the area next week. Apparent T probabilities of 95 degrees or higher off the LREF (100 member ensemble of the GEFS/ENS/GEPS) are in the 40-60% range Tuesday-Thursday. Taking a look at the WPC experimental heat risk product, moderate impacts are possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week. This would include those who are the most sensitive to the heat. The latest CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook also maintains a Moderate (40-60%) risk of extreme heat for most of the CWA July 16th-18th. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Decaying showers and isolated thunderstorms to push east over eastern IA over the next 1-3 hrs. Added a TEMPO at MLI for -TSRA and gusty winds around 30kts. Outside of any shower/storm activity, VFR conditions are expected with light and variable wind. Showers and isolated thunder over central IA to slowly track east and may reach CID prior to sunrise. Added PROB30 mention for this possibility and will continue to monitor trends for any amendments. Behind this round, model soundings and layer RH progs show MVFR cigs at DBQ through early afternoon, with low VFR further south. Depending on amount of clouds, additional showers/storms are possible primarily east and southeast of the terminals. However, some widely scattered activity as suggested by hi-res models is not out of the question. Confidence is too low to include any mention at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gross LONG TERM...Gross AVIATION...Gross  931 FXUS62 KILM 090735 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 335 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Extreme Heat Warning issued for the coastal areas of Southeast NC and Northeast SC, with heat indices over 110. Heat Advisory issued for the remainder of the forecast area with heat indices between 105 and 109. Added key message for upcoming high rip current risk for south- facing beaches. Updated aviation discussion with the issuance of the 06Z TAFS. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)The heatwave with just isolated convection to dominate during the near term. 2)Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area. 3)High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...The heatwave with just isolated convection to dominate during the near term. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The upper ridge axis across the area will keep a lid on the majority of any convection that tries to develop today. Isolated tstorms remain possible along the pinned sea breeze across coastal Northeast SC. Mid to upper 90s will dominate todays highs with 100+ degree readings still possible. Even the coastal locations will observe low to mid 90 degree readings. Some mixing of drier air aloft will result in upper 60s sfc dewpoints inland which will keep Heat indices within the advisory criteria. However mid to upper 70s dewpoints will remain across the coastal counties which will result in HIs breaching Extreme Heat Warning thresholds. This same scenario will play out Fri and Sat with a noted flattening of the upper ridge. Will still observe Heat Adv thresholds both Fri and Sat but max temps should remain below 100 degrees. This in part to an evolving increasing threat of convection Fri and especially Sat with debris cloudiness likely helping to hold down max temps. KEY MESSAGE 2...Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper pattern change starting Sun will help aid in dropping a cold front southward, crossing the area Sun with high pressure slow to fill in from the north thru mid-week next week. The result will be the threat for numerous showers and tstorms late Sat night thru Sun night, even after the cold front drops south of the area. This pattern change involves the upper ridge that has plagued the east for quite some time, that will be shifting to the west-central part of the nation and progged to amplify considerably. With plenty of antecedent heat and moisture, the setup should be quite stormy Sunday and Monday, with some storms possibly on the strong/severe side. Temps will also drop considerably with residual low 90s Sun for highs followed by potentially 80s for highs early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3...High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Building southerly swell will lead to a high risk of rip currents for south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. Continued hot weather and weekend timing will contribute to increased beach attendance - beachgoers should stay out of the water where a high risk of rip currents is in effect. Conditions improve on Sunday as the swell weakens, and currently a moderate rip risk is forecasted for Sunday for south-facing beaches. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR to dominate the 06Z 24 hr TAF Issuance Period. No fog or low stratus anticipated early this morning. Diurnal Cu later this morning thru early this evening will run FEW/SCT in coverage and in the 6.5k to 9K foot level.Subsidence inversion between 700-800mb will keep Cu vertical development limited. Convergence along the pinned sea breeze, especially south of MYR, may be enough to push thru and produce isolated convection. Just not enough coverage or confidence to place in any of the coastal terminals. WSW-W 5 to 10 kt this morning, may see g15-20 kt by midday. MYR/CRE will see a pinned sea breeze waver thru them by 17-18Z and may take until 20-21Z to reach ILM. The coastal terminals could observe SSW 15 g25 kt in the wake of the sea breeze. Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sat night into Mon as a frontal system drops south across the region. && .MARINE... Piedmont trof to strengthen across the Carolinas today thru Sat. At the same time, the High over the Atlantic Waters centered well offshore from the Carolinas gets suppressed southward. As a result, looking at increasing SW-WSW winds today thru Sat. Winds speeds increase to around 20 kt with possible frequent 25+ kt gusts across the ILM NC Coastal and Offshore waters Fri thru early Sat. In addition, looking at the threat for 6+ ft short period waves, again across the ILM NC Coastal and especially both ILM NC and SC Offshore waters. With this said, SCA remains possible for the ILM NC Coastal waters Fri thru early Sat. A cold front dropping southward, will cross the local waters Sun. Look for widespread showers and tstorms Sun into early Mon. Winds after FROPA will veer to the NE resulting in temporary victory at sea conditions until the NE wind has time to work on the local waters. NE winds will have an initial surge but then taper back some. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-059. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH KEY MESSAGES...DCH/VAO DISCUSSION...DCH/VAO AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH  246 FXUS64 KJAN 090743 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels (limited to elevated) of heat will return Thursday and persist into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thursday through next Wednesday: Thursday through Friday: Sub-tropical ridging will remain over the region, continuing dangerous heat concerns for Thursday and Friday. Afternoon rainfall/convection will be possible along/east of I-55 Thursday then diminishing by Friday. A pattern change beginning Friday will bring rain chances through the rest of the extended forecast. Saturday through Wednesday: A potent upper-lvl ridge will build and traverse over the Northern Plains, resulting in downstream troughing over the Mid-MS Valley. The trough will slowly push a frontal boundary towards the southeast through the weekend and into next week. As the boundary progress towards the area, rain chances (70-85%) will be greatest on Sunday and Monday. Rain will stick around through mid-week as the boundary gradually moves over the area. With the ongoing rain potential, heat relief is expected as heat indices drop below 105 degrees. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Overall, VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog and low stratus, mainly south of the Interstate 20 corridor, could yield a 1-3 hour period of MVFR/IFR categories around day break at sites where observed. Conditions will begin improving back to VFR status shortly after sunrise, with isolated to scattered convection . possible in areas mainly east of the Interstate 55 corridor. Winds overnight will generally be light from the southwest to calm. These will increase from the southwest between 5-10 knots by late morning. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 93 74 94 75 / 10 10 10 10 Meridian 93 74 94 75 / 30 10 10 10 Vicksburg 94 76 94 76 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 94 75 95 75 / 20 10 20 10 Natchez 94 74 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 94 76 94 77 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 94 75 95 76 / 30 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SW/19  315 FXUS63 KAPX 090744 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 344 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue through the day today. Locally heavy rain the main concern. - Warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1213 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Rainfall has been a little lackluster Wednesday night, despite the abundant moisture. The night is still young though with upstream activity beginning to increase in coverage to some extent. Nevertheless, expect an uptick in activity this morning and through the afternoon, driven by a frontal boundary sagging south, increasing daytime instability, and a passing trough axis. With anomalous column moisture in place and respectable instability (especially south of M-32), thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall. Any better-organized storms that train over the same or sensitive areas could produce localized flooding. Best potential today appears to focus south of M-32, where the better forcing and instability will reside. Deep-layer shear values remain relatively tame, and largely skinny CAPE profiles should limit the severe weather potential, though a robust storm or two is not out of the question due to the increasing heights aloft (>6km) and precipitation loading. Activity will wane this evening and overnight as the axis of anomalous moisture drifts south with the advancing frontal boundary. A quiet Friday is expected, with temperatures near or a few degrees below seasonal averages behind this boundary. A piece of energy or two riding the northwest flow—on the outer periphery of a building and eastward-migrating upper-level high—will swing through northern Michigan this weekend with little impact. The region will enter a warming trend, however, as heights steadily rise. Surface high pressure will build (or attempt to build) northeastward into Minnesota, bringing anomalously high heights aloft over northern Michigan. Consequently, temperatures will continue to rise early next week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Precipitation chances during this period will remain low, as long as the high pressure dominates the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 341 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 MVFR to IFR producing low clouds and areas of showers expected to impact taf locations this morning, with the most widespread showers across northern lower Michigan. Could see some embedded thunderstorms as well, with any storms perhaps dropping visibilities in locally heavy rain. Gradual improvement this afternoon as cigs begin to rise/scatter out and rain pushes off to the east. Skies continue to clear tonight. May see some late night fog/mist develop, especially if widespread rain occurs today. Light winds through the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...MSB  301 FXUS65 KPSR 090744 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1244 AM MST Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures will continue through the end of the work week resulting in areas of Major HeatRisk. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect through this evening across all of the lower desert locations, with the warning extended through Friday across western Imperial County, the Lower Colorado River Valley, and the Phoenix Metro. - The chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue over the higher terrain areas of the eastern and southeastern third of Arizona through Friday. - As deeper moisture moves in, the chances for more widespread thunderstorm activity will increase late weekend and early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... Latest objective analysis depicts an elongated subtropical ridge extending from eastern AZ through the eastern Pacific just off the coast of southern CA with 500 mb height fields ranging between 594- 596dm. With the ridging directly overhead, very hot temperatures will continue today across the region with afternoon highs ranging between 110-114 degrees across the south-central AZ lower deserts to 111-116 degrees across the western deserts. These afternoon highs combined with very warm overnight lows in the 80s to around 90 degrees in the Phoenix metro will continue to result in areas of Major HeatRisk. As a result, an Extreme Heat Warning remains in across all of the lower desert locations through this evening. The ridging will weaken slightly into Friday, resulting in slightly lower afternoon highs. However, across western Imperial County and the Lower Colorado River Valley area in particular, temperatures will still top out between 111-115 degrees with areas of Major HeatRisk continuing and thus have elected to extend the Extreme Heat Warning through Friday evening across this region. We also have elected to extend the Extreme Heat Warning through Friday for the Phoenix area as even though afternoon highs will be slightly cooler, ranging between 109-112 degrees, early morning lows will start out very warm near 90 degrees, resulting in areas of Major HeatRisk continuing. With greater subsidence and slightly drier air expected today and Friday, the overall convective coverage will decrease with activity relegated mostly across the White Mountains into the southeastern third of AZ. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As mentioned in previous discussions, the overall weather pattern heading into the weekend and next week will become more favorable for a more active monsoonal pattern to set up. The subtropical ridge will quickly migrate northeastward into the Rockies over the weekend and then set up over the Central Plains early next week while strengthening in the process. As this whole pattern evolution materializes, the mid-level flow will shift out of the east to southeast. This will introduce strong moisture transport into the Desert Southwest with the latest EPS and GEFS showing PWATs increasing to at least 1.4-1.5" starting as early as Sunday and remaining above 1.5" into next week. Moisture on Saturday will likely remain fairly limited across south- central AZ with low-level mixing ratios remaining between 9-10 g/kg, with the better moisture and thus the best convective potential remaining relegated to the higher terrain and southeastern AZ. There are strong indications from the latest guidance of a strong convective complex likely to develop over northern Sonora Saturday evening, which will likely send of pool of higher moisture into central AZ heading into Sunday with mixing ratios solidly above 10 g/kg. As a result, Sunday looks to be the first real potential for greater thunderstorm activity to materialize across the south- central AZ lower deserts with NBM PoPs solidly in the 30-50% range. With PWATs values remaining above 1.5" along with mixing ratios above 10 g/kg through the first half of next week, the potential for additional convective activity will remain in place and likely expand further west to include the western deserts as well with NBM PoPs ranging between 20-40% each day. We will also have to be on the lookout for any potential easterly waves that could enhance the convective activity, however, pinpointing the track and timing of these waves this far out is very difficult. Therefore, high uncertainty exists of which particular days next week have the potential to be more convectively active. With the increasing moisture and potential cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures this weekend into early next week will gradually retreat to near to slightly above normal levels with widespread moderate HeatRisk in place. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period. Winds will trend back towards more diurnal patterns with E/SE expected to prevail through the overnight period and a brief period of VRB tomorrow morning before a slightly earlier than normal westerly shift. Westerly winds during the afternoon (~21Z) will have some more gusts generally between 15-25 kts. Skies will remain mostly clear around the terminals. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period. Winds at KIPL will mostly be out of the SE but some models are suggesting a period of westerly gusts between 00-04Z with speeds near 20 kts. KBLH will be similar to the past several days, remaining mostly southerly, favoring a slight SSW direction. Afternoon gusts are expected at KBLH between 20-25kts into the evening hours. Otherwise clear skies will persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds with isolated lightning over the far eastern districts through Friday will be the main fire weather concern. Outside of any potential outflows, winds should favor diurnal trends with typical afternoon breeziness around 20 mph. Some stronger afternoon gusts between 20-30 mph will be common through Friday along the Lower Colorado River Valley. Afternoon RH values between 10-20% will be common across the region through Saturday. Overnight recoveries will generally range between 30-60% with the upper end of the range across the Imperial Valley and the eastern Districts. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal today, with the lowest elevations reaching between 110-115 degrees before a very gradual cool down takes place starting Friday. More widespread monsoonal activity is likely starting late this weekend and continuing into next week. Moisture levels and humidities should also improve considerably heading into next week, alleviating much of the fire weather concerns. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530-537-540- 542>544-546-548-550-551. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ531>534- 536-538-539-541-545-547-549-553>555-559-560-562. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-566-567- 569-570. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ564-565- 568. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lojero LONG TERM...Lojero AVIATION...Ryan FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Kuhlman  304 FXUS66 KMTR 090744 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1244 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Warmer weather continues through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1244 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Today and tonight) Onshore winds are ushering stratus inland. 2.8 mb ACV-SFO and 3.0 mb SFO-SAC pressure gradients support northwest to west winds. The 500 mb high pressure system centered over southern California and northern Mexico will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. Surface warming will mix out much of the stratus today by late morning and afternoon. Daytime highs today will be in the 60s coastside, 60s/70s bayside to the 80s/90s inland. Stratus returns tonight. Lows will be in the 50s except lower to mid 60s at higher elevations tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1244 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) Global model guidance is consistent showing the 500 mb high pressure system beginning to move northeastward Friday through early next week. Daytime highs will be coolest along the coast with 60s, 60s/70s bayside and in the 80s/90s inland to the lower 100s far inland mainly over the southern interior. Night-time lows will cool to the 50s/60s. Southerly winds aloft on the periphery of the high will transport mid-level sub-tropical/tropical moisture to our forecast area beginning Saturday night and Sunday and lasting through Tuesday night. We'll continue to monitor the potential for a temporary increase in mid level instability. At the earliest onset of moisture arriving, recent 00z guidance from the NAM and RRFS are mixed, the NAM shows pockets of instability to our southwest late Saturday night to early Sunday, while the RRFS does not show any mucape. 00z GFS continues to show essentially no mucape except occasional pockets of mid-level mucape. We'll continue to monitor the higher resolution models with each subsequent model run(s). A possible limiting factor for convection over our forecast area is 500 mb height ridging is forecast to extend west from the eastward departing 500 mb high center. If this occurs, broad anticyclonic flow will be present, however can't completely discount embedded thermal trough(s) within the broad anticyclonic flow given the height field; summer weather systems can be a complex mix in the various layers of the troposphere. There's currently good agreement in this westward extending 500 mb ridge scenario in the ECMWF and GFS, a good sign for less convective potential. At this time the potential for convection is a low confidence forecast because of the varied output seen so far. Please stay tuned to the latest updates. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 932 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The marine layer is even shallower than expected, bringing IFR and LIFR ceilings to the impacted terminals. On the other hand, the fact that it's shallow means it will struggle to navigate the terrain and probably won't reach the more inland terminals. Both ceiling and visibility should worsen throughout the night and early morning, particularly if the winds die down at the coastal terminals. There will likely be a window of clearing for most terminals Thursday afternoon, but it will only last about 6 hours or so before the marine layer stratus returns Thursday evening. Vicinity of SFO...While the marine layer is pretty shallow, it was just deep enough to spill over the peninsula rather than having to fill the Bay first. This led to the earlier ceiling (just after 00Z). Since then it has steadily lowered to high IFR at the moment, and there is no sign that trend will stop. There is a roughly 50/50 chance for LIFR conditions in the few hours around sunrise, indicated by a TEMPO line in the TAF. SFO Bridge Approach...Clouds will fill later and clear earlier than the terminal. Monterey Bay Terminals...The ceiling is already 400 feet at MRY, signaling that the ceilings will likely drop low enough to impact visibility through the morning. It looks like there will be enough wind to keep dense fog from forming, but that's not a guarantee by any means. It's doubtful MRY clears at all tomorrow, but SNS should have at least a few hours of sunshine in the afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 932 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Northwest winds remain fresh to strong as embedded near gale force gusts increase into the weekend. Wind driven moderate seas (5-8 ft) build to rough (9-11 ft) this evening into the weekend paired with a long period southerly swell. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warmer and drier conditions continue into this weekend. This increases fire weather concerns slightly as fuels are forecast to rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. The main forecast concern is the lack of instability across our region which may prevent convection from developing. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. && .BEACHES... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  587 FXUS65 KPIH 090747 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 147 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier weather returns today and beyond with hot conditions likely for the weekend. Many low elevations will reach 100 degrees by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Cool front/dry line arrives today. Still debatable if enough dry air works into the region before convection fires off. The NAM, GFS and HREF keeps things pretty dry, but the HRRR continues to fire off showers and thunderstorms around Arco and propagates them east to near IF and Rexburg by 00z. Decided to add a slight chance for storms in that area, but its likely that if we see anything it will probably be just virga. With that said, we could still see some descent wind gusts from the virga showers if they develop. Dry weather is likely into early next week. Hot conditions arrive over the weekend. Heat risk values are strongly pinging some form of heat products across much of our central and east Idaho and have been consistently doing so. Temps in the upper 90s to around 100 looks very likely for many of our communities. These temperatures will flirt with daily records at many sites. Given the consistency that we've been seeing will roll with a heat watch for Saturday and Sunday. Looks breezy as well over the weekend with wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range for many. This hot weather looks like it will continue into Monday, perhaps backing off some on Tuesday. Could see the heat products extending into early next week, but with less confidence at this time. Potential monsoon flow from the south looks to arrive for Wednesday and beyond bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms, added cloud cover, and somewhat lower temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Outside threat for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon which could affect IDA. Probability is too low to mention in TAF at this time. Otherwise could see some wind gusts at TAF sites to near 20 kts this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across zone 413 this afternoon. If storms develop, gusty outflow winds are likely. Otherwise very dry weather arrives for the weekend. This will allow hot weather to set in and breezy conditions as well. Depending upon fuel conditions, could see critical fire weather conditions over a large portion of the area. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for IDZ051>068-070-075. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...13  661 FXUS63 KDTX 090750 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms increase coverage and intensity while spreading from the Tri Cities and northern Thumb toward metro Detroit today. - Isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards with the strongest storms this afternoon and evening. The best chance for marginally severe storms is across the Detroit Metro Area and points south. - Dry weather and near-normal temperatures settle in for the weekend. - A new heat wave is on schedule for next week (3 consecutive days of highs 90+ degrees). && .DISCUSSION... Showers and a rumble of thunder, ongoing over central Lower Mi at forecast issuance, is sustained by a well-defined MCV shown in composite radar data. It is embedded within the low to mid level moisture axis positioned SW to NE ahead of the surface front. There is also some lingering elevated instability judging by the 00Z DTX and model soundings, an environment capable of sustaining the showers and producing a rumble of thunder through early morning. The forecast is also focused on initiation timing of the new surface based convective cycle as the front settles slowly southward across southern Lower Mi this afternoon and evening. A preferred scenario has an early day round of storms ahead of the front followed by or merging with a late day and evening phase of activity accompanying the frontal passage. The early day phase is tied to differential heating created by the showers leading up to sunrise and a hefty band of cloud debris that lingers during the morning. An outflow boundary in surface analyses has potential to provide a focusing mechanism in the differential heating zone generally north of I-69 as surface instability quickly increases. Model soundings are uncapped and favorable for development around or shortly after 12 PM as HREF mean surface based CAPE increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm clusters move from there southward toward metro Detroit mid to late afternoon while approaching severe intensity on an isolated basis and in line with the SPC Marginal Risk. Multicell organization is reachable in 25-30 kts of westerly 0-6 km bulk shear, although shown in model data to decrease from north to south across the region. Locally heavy rainfall also remains a hazard to highlight as PW rises into the 1.5 to 2 inch range within the moisture axis ahead of the front. The front itself then becomes the focus for a second round of storms that develop back toward the Tri Cities and northern Thumb late in the day and this evening. Intensity will be strongly dependent on recovery of instability before daytime heating wanes after 00Z, however scattered to numerous coverage is expected to fill in along the front as it moves into and south of the I-69 corridor this evening. The surface front/wind shift is then on schedule to move south of the Ohio border early Friday morning. The new 00Z model runs remain in good agreement on this timing, along with a few showers within the trailing mid level frontal zone still over SE Mi through the morning. Chance/scattered coverage looks reasonable in the 00Z NBM forecast update for the area generally south of I-69 Friday morning. The long wave ridge building over central Canada and the northern Plains produces surface high pressure in northern Ontario and Quebec that is strong enough to push the front farther into the Ohio valley Friday afternoon and night. The inbound air mass is slightly cooler and less humid as shown by consensus model projections of surface Td dropping into the 50s Friday night and Saturday. Continued amplification of the mid/upper level long wave ridge is centered over the Plains with a tilt toward Hudson Bay by Sunday. This configuration favors leaning the forecast toward a few days of dry weather while monitoring convective trends to the north. This leads into the weather highlight for early next week tied to a new round of heat on track to increase as the mid/upper level ridge builds into a west to east configuration from the Plains into the Great Lakes. This is in a better position to block Gulf/Atlantic humidity as a limiting factor for heat index, however the strength of the ridge adds confidence to a return of lower to mid 90s in guidance temperatures for the early to middle part of next week. && .MARINE... This afternoon we expect to have a weak low pressure system trek across North Lower Michigan, bringing the chance for showers and even an isolated severe weather threat from Saginaw Bay down to the Lake Erie shore. The main threat for any thunderstorms that could develop would be wind gusts of 34+ knots. Nonetheless Lake Huron and Saginaw bay can expect light winds veering from the southwest to the north throughout the day, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible depending on the positioning of the low pressure. Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie shore can expect light winds as well veering from the southwest to the west throughout the day. Tomorrow looks to potentially bring some modest wind flow to the Lake Huron and Bay area as a modest pressure gradient could develop between a departing low pressure and developing high pressure. This could lead to some enhanced wind flow in the bay depending on the positioning of these systems. Flow is expected to be out of the Northeast at 10 to 15 knots, with gusts of 20+ knots possible in the afternoon/evening hours. Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie Shore look to be more tame with light winds out of the north expected. A high pressure system is expected to develop over the region throughout the weekend, bringing warmer and calmer weather. && .HYDROLOGY... A slow moving cold front is on schedule to settle through southern Lower Michigan today and tonight serving as the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms. The greatest coverage and intensity is expected this afternoon and evening with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area. Basin average rainfall of a quarter to a half inch is most likely with a chance of near 1 inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm coverage. The slow movement of the front could also produce more than one round of thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than 1 inch within a few hours time. This presents minor urban flooding potential along with ponding of water on roads and in other prone areas. Scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers into Friday, mainly south of M-59, before coming to an end Friday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 AVIATION... VFR conditions across southeast Michigan early tonight with light winds out of the west-southwest. A slow moving frontal boundary will lead to increasingly lower ceilings and shower and thunderstorm chances into mid to late this morning with increasing thunderstorm chances focused mainly in the afternoon. Will include TEMPO groups given the higher likelihood of scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon, some of which could become strong to marginally severe. MBS will likely see an earlier time window for thunderstorms tomorrow with potential for morning showers prior to thunderstorm chances. D21/DTW Convection...Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon within the 17-23Z window. Most likely start time is around 19Z at DTW. Two or three total rounds of storms are possible before Friday morning. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for thunder this afternoon and/or evening.* Medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon and evening && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......ZB/TF HYDROLOGY....BT AVIATION.....AA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  633 FXUS63 KGRR 090750 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 350 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers and Storms Today - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered Showers and Storms Today Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain the mode today. While not as warm as yesterday, the humidity will be a little higher. A weak cold front slowly arriving from the northwest, weak midlevel shortwave troughing, and remnant vorticity maxima from yesterday evening's convection over the Upper Miss. River valley, should serve to initiate shower and storm development. Initially elevated convection is possible most anywhere later this morning, then more surface-based storms would be favored east of US-131 during the afternoon. CAPE should be in the range of 750-1500 J/kg. Low-level wind shear is expected to be weak, and deep layer shear of 20 kt is also on the marginal side. With weak forcing and weak storm- relative inflow, storm updrafts should be smaller-scale and less likely to produce severe hail. By afternoon, the well mixed lower levels and DCAPE around 600 J/kg would support locally gusty winds under any of the more robust storm cells, with a marginal risk of severe winds near and east of Battle Creek - Lansing. Rain today is not guaranteed in any location. However, an isolated inch or more of rain could fall in a couple spots. Added patchy fog into the forecast for early Friday morning as winds go calm and skies partially clear. Isolated showers or storms may continue to percolate in mid/southern Lower Michigan tonight into Friday. - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up Rising heights in the upper levels and a strengthening surface high over Lower Michigan this weekend will favor a dry forecast. There is about a 10 percent chance of a shower or storm popping up on Sunday, better chances north. As a 500 mb high (associated with a heat wave out west) strengthens and migrates from the SW CONUS to the Dakotas this weekend into Monday, a plume of 20-25 C air at 850 mb will advect into Michigan from the west-northwest Monday-Tuesday. High temperatures in the 90s away from Lake Michigan are well supported by the ECE and GEPS. Dew points may be a little lower than with last week's heat wave, but a heat index in the mid to upper 90s is favored. Mid to late week, the spread in solutions increases (and confidence decreases), dependent on the relative strength and position of the central CONUS high and the eastern Canadian trough, but now a majority of ECE members and about 25 percent of GEPS members (not to mention a few GEFS members) keep highs in the 90s through Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thunderstorm and rain vicinity and north of MKG is gradually weakening and will probably only be a factor distant north of GRR and LAN the next few hours. Expecting cloud bases mostly at or above 4,000 feet today. The big caveat to the prevailing VFR will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the day and moving east. Went with a pretty long duration window of prob30 thunderstorm as models offer a wide variety of solutions regarding coverage and location of thunderstorms at a given time. Any better-developed thunderstorm cells this afternoon, especially east of GRR-AZO, will be capable of microbursts/LLWS and temporary IFR visibility. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light winds and low waves expected over Lake Michigan today, with wind direction variable depending on location. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing over the lake this morning. Friday, north-northwest winds may build 2 to4 foot waves and a moderate swim risk by late afternoon. Swim risk is expected to be low this weekend with a high pressure system over the area. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...CAS MARINE...CAS  713 FXUS63 KDLH 090752 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 252 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures today and Friday before a notable warm up through the weekend with increasing humidity. Potentially dangerous heat and humidity is possible Sunday, Monday, and into early next week. - Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday. An isolated thunderstorm Friday afternoon and evening could be strong with brief gusty winds and small hail. - Minimal precipitation in the extended forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A fairly unremarkable summer day is in store for today, as surface high pressure meanders across the region. We could see some patchy dense fog this morning, especially near Lake Superior, which should burn off with visibility improving through the morning. Afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Friday, a cold front from a weak surface low to our north is expected to pass from northwest to southeast through the day. We could see some precipitation in north-central Minnesota as early as Friday morning with this disturbance, if overnight convection in the Dakotas can hold itself together. Otherwise, generally expected some widespread scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to develop through the day, peaking in coverage and intensity Friday afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a possible 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE with 30-40kts of bulk shear. If storms are able to develop, there's a chance that some of them could be on the spunkier side for north-central and NE MN bringing brief gusty winds, a quick downpour, small hail, and frequent lightning. Anyone with outdoor plans should keep an eye to the sky Friday. As that disturbance keeping trucking south and east, it may be able to spur a little showery activity through the day Saturday for the North Shore and NW WI, but chances are fairly low (15-25%) at this time. Sunday and into next week, models are in very good agreement that a robust upper level high will move into the central CONUS which should drive the heat and humidity up across the Northland. Model guidance is suggesting widespread temperatures in the 80s with several days of widespread 90s possible Sunday and Monday. This could come along with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s. Heat headlines may be needed. With this set-up, any precipitation chances would likely stem from ridge-running disturbances that can bend the flow a bit at the northern edge of the upper level high to push a disturbance through. Global model guidance suggests that the next best chance for that would be sometime early to mid next week, maybe in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, but confidence, and PoPs, are low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 All VFR conditions overnight may deteriorate with areas of MVFR to IFR fog. Conditions should improve back to VFR for all terminals after sunrise. Light winds through the day. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A light onshore lake breeze is expected today, with some afternoon gusts of 10-15 knots possible for the Twin Ports and Apostle Islands to Chequamegon Bay. While no headlines are expected, small craft users shouldn't be surprised to have a little northeast chop to work with (less than 1 foot) this afternoon, which should die down quickly into the evening. Widespread marine dense fog is expected this morning, but model guidance is in decent agreement that it should pull back away from the coasts into the open water during the day. It may return once again overnight into Friday morning. A mostly light northeast wind is expected across Western Lake Superior Friday, which will once again lead to some less-than-one-foot chop in the afternoon, but nothing hazardous. Some rain showers and thunderstorms may be able to develop Friday afternoon and evening, moving from northwest to southeast across the lake. An isolated thunderstorm or two could become strong with brief gusty winds, a quick downpour, small hail, and frequent lightning. Very isolated shower and thunderstorm development is possible again Saturday, but less likely than Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light northerly winds expected today with no precipitation. Afternoon dewpoints have trended downwards with high temperatures in the low 80s, making for a dry day today. Afternoon RH of 25-40% is expected across the Northland, with some locally especially dry spots near the Canadian border dropping below 25%. Friday, southerly winds return with some gusts of 10-15mph possible in the afternoon. This should bring with it some improved humidity (afternoon RH 35- 50%) and a 20-40% chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Northland, most likely Friday afternoon and evening. Any accumulations would be fairly light, a couple hundredths to a couple tenths. Temperatures warm through the weekend, but dewpoints in the 60s remain, so afternoon RH should fairly consistently drop into the 35-45% range, with the chance for some particularly dry spots to reach 30%. Some breezier southwest winds are possible Sunday for north-central Minnesota. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121- 140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens  741 FXUS63 KGLD 090753 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 153 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 152 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Storm activity has lowered across the area with the main gust front line clearing the area to the east, along with the surface low center east of the area. There may still be a few storms in Southwest Nebraska and adjacent counties through the night due to a cluster of storms that persisted near North Platte. It is unlikely these storms would be severe, but they could produce small hail and winds gusting to 50 mph. Parts of Eastern Colorado could drop into the 50s, while the rest of the area stays in the 60s with dewpoints in the 60s and cloud cover. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, the upper level pattern is forecast to have the area in weak northwest flow. With the lack of features initially, winds should be a bit on the lighter side at or below 15 mph. The winds will likely vary a bit in direction until a low develops west of the area later in the day. Skies should clear through the morning and allow temperatures to warm to around 90 by the mid afternoon hours. By the mid to late afternoon hours, storms are forecast to develop along the Front range and Palmer Divide. This looks to be caused by the surface low pressure deepening along the Front Range and a shortwave moving through the upper northwest flow. With storm development likely west of the area, storms should cluster or form lines as they move into the area. Some of the earliest guidance suggests parts of Eastern Colorado could see storms around 3pm, but it will likely be closer to 5-6pm again. These storms may be severe as MUCAPE is forecast to be around 1500-2000 J/kg again along with mid-level lapse rates around 8.0-8.5 C/km. The main difference that may allow storms to be a bit stronger and have a higher chance of holding together is that 0-6km shear could be 40-45 kts with the deepening surface low and shortwave both increasing the flow in the lower and mid-levels. Even with this, storms would likely still be more of a wind threat due to the cluster/linear storm mode that is forecast. The max speeds should be closer to 75 as long as storms are organized, with gusts generally around 55-65 mph. Otherwise, wind gusts would be similar to today with a few 60s, but largely in the 40s and 50s. The better shear does increase the max hail size to around 1.75-2.00 inches, though the more linear/cluster mode would likely lead to more smaller or marginally severe hail. LCLs are forecast to be high again, likely inhibiting a chance for tornadoes. There is a very low chance for flash flooding, especially as storms first cluster and may train over an area. If this occurs, rain totals could reach 1-3 inches and maybe allow for some small flash flooding. If the clusters/lines move consistently though, flash flooding is unlikely. This is currently the forecast, with the clusters moving into Eastern Colorado around 5-6pm and moving steadily east through the area. Storms would likely end around 2- 3am, unless they gust out again which would put the ending time closer to midnight. Once the storms clear, another night with light winds and temperatures in the 50s and 60s is forecast. Skies should clear in the west, but may remain cloudy for eastern portions of the area.&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday appears to be the last in a series of days with diurnally driven thunderstorms developing and persisting through the evening hours. Confidence in this time period is somewhat lower than normal since it will strongly depend on how thunderstorms develop tonight and tomorrow night. That being said, general pattern appears to hold frontal zone to the south of area, with generally easterly upslope flow throughout the day. Best large scale forcing for ascent appears to just skirt the CWA south of Interstate 70 as weak H7-H5 low moves into SW Kansas. As mentioned before, confidence in details is low at this point and time but overall pattern supports another round of thunderstorms developing over higher terrain and moving to the east southeast in the evening hours. Directional shear will be better than previous days, although overall wind speeds aloft are on the weaker side Friday will likely provide the best shear profiles for organized storms. Similar to the past few days, highest threat will be for organized areas of damaging winds through the evening followed by threat for hail in the 1" to 1.75" range. Blowing dust threat will depend greatly on how and where precipitation falls on Thursday and morning cloud cover. Confidence in these specifics are very low at this point however, resulting in low confidence in dust threat. Region will move into a warm and dry pattern as strong H5 597 dm ridge develops and builds into the northern plains through the start of the week. While there is a small threat for precipitation/thunderstorms on periphery of the H5 ridge Saturday this potential drops off rapidly through the rest of the period as subsidence under strong ridge. With probabilities of this magnitude of ridging fairly high based on ensemble probabilities, confidence in hot and overall dry weather is high. With temperatures climbing into the 90s, possibly upper 90s by mid week, the primary expected impacts. Right now, dewpoints should remain high enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions, but will have to keep a close eye on heat indices through the start of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the TAF period. Winds will be light and out of the northwest until around 16Z when they shift to out of the east and increase to around 12 knots. After 20Z, thunderstorms will enter the area from the west as a cluster causing erratic winds. Some storms may be severe producing 1-2 inch hail and winds around 50 knots. After the cluster passes, light rain will persist through the end of the TAF period. For KMCK, generally VFR conditions will prevail with a chance of MVFR conditions through 09Z caused by thunderstorms in the area. Thunderstorms continue to pop up in the area leading to sporadic storm activity. Winds will be out of the northwest around 10 knots through 09Z. Around 19Z, winds will shift to out of the east. Low confidence in thunderstorm conditions from 00Z through the end of the TAF period. If the storms occur, they would move in from the west as a cluster and may produce large hail and strong winds. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...KAK/Rhoades  854 FXUS61 KAKQ 090757 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 357 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Heat Advisory has been issued for northeast North Carolina for most counties east of the Chowan River. Convective and excessive rainfall outlooks remain similar. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hotter summertime temperatures return today and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops today and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across far northern portions of the area today. 2) Near to slightly below average temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. 3) Hot temperatures potentially return by mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 355 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hotter summertime temperatures return today and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops today and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across far northern portions of the area today. GOES water vapor channels depict the axis of a subtropical ridge centered off the Southeast coast early this morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough is pushing across the Great Lakes, with a secondary wave over the upper Ohio Valley. At the surface high pressure is centered offshore with a weak trough inland. The low-level wind is light and generally out of the S to SE. Warm and humid with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Some areas of stratus were observed, which should linger early this morning, before scattering and lifting later this morning. The subtropical ridge re-asserts itself today. 850mb temperatures return to 18-20C today NW-SW across the local area. This will support high temperatures ~90F across the N to the mid 90s SE. Dewpoints across NE NC east of the Chowan River will struggle to drop below the mid 70s during peak heating. Therefore, heat indices potentially reach 105-109F and a Heat Advisory has been issued for Chowan, Perquimans, Pasquotank, Camden, and Currituck Counties (excluding Outer Banks Currituck) from 11AM-7PM. Southside Hampton Roads will see heat indices in the lower 100s, but should largely remain below 105F as a slight SE component to the wind should help temperatures remain in the lower half of the 90s. The mid/upper level flow becomes more progressive today and Friday. The 500mb flow increases to 30-35kt this afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave trough (the feature currently over the upper Ohio Valley), with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave trough. With strengthening mid level flow and strong surface heating strong to locally severe tstms are possible each afternoon with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. The best potential for tstms today will primarily be N/NE of I-64 in closer proximity to the stronger ascent. Farther S, convection will likely be suppressed given warmer 850 to 700mb temperatures in closer proximity to the upper ridge. The question on Friday is coverage given more drier downslope flow. Additionally, the 00z/09 HREF and REFS have a decent signal for heavy rain later this afternoon and evening from the Northern Neck to SE MD (and points N). This is where there is a threat of localized flash flooding, with a much less risk farther S. KEY MESSAGE 2...Near to slightly below averagetemperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms chances continue through Saturday as a cold front pushes through the area. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall with rich moisture and PW values 120- 140% of normal. A few stronger tstms are also possible. By the end of the weekend and into next week models hint at a drier pattern as high pressure returns to the area. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday (with some guidance suggesting lower to mid 80s), before a warming trend commences Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot temperatures potentially return by mid to late next week. Global ensemble guidance depicts an upper ridge building over the upper Midwest by early next week and pivoting into the Mid- Atlantic by mid to late next week. This will allow for a return to hot temperatures will highs potentially well into the 90s by mid to late next week. Ensemble guidance also shows PW values near to slightly below normal, so mainly dry conditions should be favored much of next week. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 205 AM EDT Thursday... Areas of stratus were developing across the region as of 06z. MVFR cigs were observed at RIC and ECG with VFR conditions elsewhere. ORF and PHF are expected to drop to MVFR through 08z, with RIC falling to IFR ~08z. SBY should primarily remain VFR with brief MVFR possible early in the morning. A few showers and perhaps a tstm could move across the region early this morning. However, confidence of directly impacting any given terminal is very low. Conditions gradually improve later this morning with VFR conditions prevailing after ~15z. There is a chc of showers and tstms later this aftn and evening. The best probability is a RIC and SBY where PROB30 groups have been added. Any tstms could produce some brief strong wind gusts. Any showers/tstms move offshore later this evening with VFR condition prevailing overnight. A light SE wind early this morning will become SSW 5-10kt today, and then light out of the SW tonight. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms by Friday is generally ~30% at RIC and 30-50% at SBY, with 20% or less elsewhere, then 60-70% by Saturday. Trending drier and VFR Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... As of 355 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected through the end of the week. - There is a risk of localized higher winds and waves from thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening and again on Friday. - Elevated onshore flow may develop later Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisories possible. Benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this morning are out of the S-SE and generally 5-10 kt. A very weak front will cross the waters this evening/early tonight, with a wind shift to the W-SW. The main focus with this feature will instead be the potential for strong to severe storms capable of producing localized pockets of higher winds and waves. The prevailing flow will be out of the S Friday and less than 10 kt, though additional storms are possible. A more substantial front is forecast to drop southward Saturday with northerly sub-SCA winds developing in its wake. There is then an emerging signal for weak low pressure to develop just S of the local waters Monday, beneath a high pressure system to our N. This could lead to a prolonged period of northeasterly onshore flow from later Sunday through at least Monday. At this time, will forecast 15-20 kt w/ gusts to 25 kt forthe lower bay and coastal waters. Seas would also build to at least 4-6 ft (3-4 ft waves lower bay) given this wind speed and direction combination. Overall, the current forecast would necessitate Small Craft Advisories, but uncertainty remains at this state so will monitor over the coming days. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed this morning for some additional maintenance. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-031-032. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SW EQUIPMENT...AKQ