173 FXUS61 KLWX 090801 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 401 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flood Watches have been issued for the threat of flash flooding. This is for the 2 PM to 11 PM timeframe which covers much of the I-95 corridor back into the north-central Maryland and northern Virginia. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday. - 2) Turning cooler this weekend into Monday, with renewed heat by mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday. The early morning surface analysis places a wavy frontal zone across southern North Carolina up across the central Appalachians. To the north of this boundary, a light southeasterly wind is being observed over the local area. Skies generally remain mostly cloudy with temperatures in the low/mid 70s, with dew points staying around the low 70s. The thermodynamic environment remains unstable aloft with most unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) averaging around 1,000 J/kg, without any inhibition. Consequently, spotty showers and a few thunderstorms continue to spawn early this morning. In areas not seeing shower activity, low stratus and patchy fog have begun to materialize. This overall pattern largely sticks around through the early/mid morning hours. Expect these low clouds to linger throughout the morning before breaks in the overcast skies occurs by the midday hours. At the same time, the surface boundary to the south surges poleward as a warm front. The other key player is a seasonably strong shortwave currently along the Indiana/Ohio border down into the Tennessee Valley. This trough is forecast to move toward the Mid-Atlantic states which is accompanied by increasing mid-level winds to around 30 to 35 knots. Ultimately this bolters 0-6 km vertical shear to 30 knots which is plenty sufficient for early/mid July standards. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a Slight Risk mainly from U.S. 15 eastward. While instability is not off the charts, mixed-layer CAPE values rise to around 1,500 to 2,000 J/kg. The tropical air mass featuring 2 to 2.25 inch precipitable water values will lower lifted condensation levels (LCLs). This ultimately puts a cap on the amount of downdraft CAPE (DCAPE), generally averaging around 600 to 800 J/kg. The 00Z high- resolution model suite indicates convective initation off the higher terrain during the early morning hours. High-resolution ensembles depict 40 dbZ paintballs which track toward the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Ample vertical shear will aid in decent storm organization, particularly for developing line segments. As usual, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe hazard, but with frequent lightning and torrential downpours possible in any storm. The primary threat for severe thunderstorms ends by the mid-evening hours as convection pushes out to the Eastern Shore. With only modest DCAPE values on forecast soundings, the forward acceleration of storms via cold pools/gust fronts may not offset a possible flash flood threat. In particular, locations recently hit by recent heavy rainfall along with the more vulnerable I-95 urban areas will see an elevated flood risk. The Weather Prediction Center has placed a Slight Risk across all areas north of I-64. Given a decent signal for heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor, have opted for a Flood Watch given the threat of flash flooding. This covers the 2 PM through 11 PM timeframe while spanning north-central Maryland down to northern Virginia and points eastward. While convection should be progressive in nature, intense rainfall rates on the order of 2 to 3 inches per hour could aid in some hydrologic response. Will continue to monitor for any necessary westward/southward expansions. Some degree of convective threat likely continues into Friday given ample moisture in the atmosphere. However, a primarily westerly flow often is known to negate the development of more organized thunderstorm activity. Friday does mark the warmest day of the remainder of the week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Depending on how much rainfall occurs during the previous day, some level of flash flood risk may take place again on Friday afternoon/evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning cooler this weekend into Monday, with renewed heat by mid-week. As an upper ridge builds across the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies, this will lend itself to longwave troughing across far eastern Canada into the northeastern U.S. Weak height falls accompanying this trough will push a cold front through the area on Saturday morning. This boundary sags southward in time as broad high pressure over the Great Lakes and New England approaches from the north. Some lingering showers are possible over the weekend given the close proximity of the frontal zone to the area. Temperatures drop over the weekend with initial post-frontal northwesterlies giving way to easterlies by Sunday. The true drop in humidity levels does not take place until late in the weekend into Monday. This should offer a dry start to the upcoming work week. Eventually above average temperatures return to the picture toward the middle of next week. Building heights across the central U.S. should eventually spread eastward into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Low to mid 90s become more likely as this occurs, but with less humidity than the last bout of excessive heat. Forecast dew points are in the 60s with upper ridging generally limiting convective chances. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Like the preceding night, low-level moisture being trapped in the nocturnal boundary layer has lowered ceilings to MVFR. In some spots, the low clouds have been slower to respond to the moist low-levels in the atmosphere. This is likely due to a bit of lingering wind. Will continue to show a mixture of IFR to near IFR ceilings across all TAF sites through the mid/late morning hours. However, these low stratus should gradually mix out by midday ahead of another active weather day. As a seasonably strong shortwave moves through this afternoon, the models agree on numerous showers and thunderstorms pushing eastward across the area. Have maintained a TEMPO group in the 3 to 7 PM timeframe, slightly earlier for the western terminals. Restrictions are likely as these storms roll through, some of which could be severe in nature. In the wake of these storms, initial southerly winds turn more southwest to westerly tonight. Low ceilings are again possible, particularly in areas which saw heavier rainfall. Westerly winds on Friday may offset some of the convective threat on Friday. However, some afternoon to evening restrictions will again be possible. A cold front moves through on Saturday which yields a shift to northwesterly winds. These eventually turn more easterly on Sunday into Monday as the boundary slides farther to the south. Despite some weekend shower chances, mainly VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... With summertime gradients in place, any potential for Small Craft Advisories appears low through the weekend and into early next week. Any hazardous conditions over the waterways will again be tied to thunderstorms, lightning, and any gust fronts/outflows. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for this afternoon and evening as strong convection pushes eastward to the I-95 metro areas. While westerly winds should offset some of Friday's convective threat, some storms could impact the waters during the core heating hours. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Anomalies are around 1 to 1.25 feet early this morning as winds have shifted over to southerly. This will likely result in near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline through the end of the week. Annapolis is most likely to reach the minor flood threshold, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the early morning high tide. Havre de Grace will also be close. A gradual decline in water levels is expected this weekend. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for DCZ001. MD...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ014. VA...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for VAZ053-054-505-506-526-527. WV...None. MARINE...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for ANZ530. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRO AVIATION...BRO MARINE...BRO  238 FXUS63 KFSD 090802 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 302 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog, including locally dense fog, continues through the Thursday morning commute. Be prepared for rapidly changing visibility into mid morning, which may drop below two miles at times. - High temperatures remain on track to rise to the 90s to 100 degree mark towards this weekend and into early next week. Be prepared to alter outdoor plans to reduce risk of heat illness. - Mostly dry conditions are expected into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fog and stratus are expanding over the forecast area this morning, continuing into the mid morning hours. Through 2:30 AM CDT, visibility remains at or above 4 miles, but guidance continues to show some low (35% chance or less) probability of visibility falling below 2 miles. May see some brief visibility below one mile if some hi-res guidance is to be believed. CAMs remain consistent on some additional shower development later this morning for northwestern IA. Confidence is low but can't rule out a sprinkle with the stratus. Conditions today are expected to remain dry with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s and a mix of clouds and sun. A trough is expected to move into the western Dakotas/NE later this afternoon through tonight. Much of the guidance splits the better forcing around our forecast area, with the CAMs following suit (taking convection either north or south), or showing convection weaken on approach. With that, can't entirely rule out an isolated shower/storm through south central SD into the MO River Valley late this evening into tonight if something can move into our area from the west. If this occurs, severe weather is not expected with the lack of shear. Showers may linger into Friday morning as the subtle wave moves south of the area, but confidence in coverage is low (less than 20%). Focus for the forecast remains on the heat building in for the weekend and early next week. Ensemble probabilities of highs exceeding 95 degrees Sunday into early next week remain moderate to high (over 55%) for areas along and west of I-29. If you have outdoor plans, be prepared to alter them to reduce the risk of heat illness. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few light rain showers persist across mainly northwest Iowa this afternoon. A surface trough and associated cold front continue to track through the forecast area early this afternoon. The mid level clouds associated with these light rain showers continue to sit over mainly northwest Iowa and surrounding locations. This has prevented locations in this area from heating out. The cooler temperatures look to also delay new convective development as the cold front pushes into this area. Still, these clouds look to clear/break up enough to allow adequate instability to develop with a magnitude up to about 2,000 J/kg over the course of the afternoon timeframe. Vertical shear values will be on the weaker side of things with a magnitude of roughly 20-30 knots. Latest hi-res guidance shows that a small, bi-modal severe weather event is on the table for this afternoon and evening. Storms look to develop on both the pre- frontal trough and trailing cold front. Storm development looks to take place across mainly northwest Iowa and adjacent areas this afternoon with a timeframe from from about 4 pm to 10 pm. With the cold frontal forcing, storms look to grow into a line as they push out of the area this evening. While vertical shear magnitudes will be on the lower side, hodographs show a weak but classic veer-back profile. With weak cold advection aloft, lapse rates will steepen just a bit more and allow for a large hail threat.Soundings do show slightly more saturated profiles in the hail growth zone (HGZ) which will tone down the hail threat a bit, with some of the largest stones growing up to half dollar size. DCAPE values will be sufficient with values up to 800 to 1,000 J/kg, keeping a damaging wind threat in place with the strongest gusts up to 65 mph. The large hail threat will come with the initial storm development before transitioning to a damaging wind threat as storms grow upscale. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall could result in localized ponding in low lying/urban areas as storms roll through. The storm threat will end this evening, leaving mostly quiet conditions for the overnight hours. Low temperatures will fall to the 60s. Seasonable and mostly dry conditions will return for the end of the week with high temperatures remaining in the 80s to just touching 90F. Winds will be light, making for a pleasant Thursday and Friday. Heights begin to rise aloft on Saturday, beginning to warm temperatures with highs rising to the 80s and 90s. Sunday will kick off the first day of near to above normal temperatures as medium range and ensemble guidance show a 600 dam ridge building into the Northern Plains. This ridge looks to persist through the first half of next week, brining hot and humid conditions with it. The ensembles show a 60-100% chance for highs to exceed 90F Sunday through Tuesday near and west of I-29. Chances for exceeding 100F drop to 40-70% for the same period of time with Tuesday having the highest probabilities. The ensembles also show a broad 40-100% chance for dew points to exceed 60F as well. All these probabilities to say that hot and humid conditions are expected late this weekend and into early next week. A few ensemble members show the ridge beginning to flatten next Wednesday which could begin to trend temperatures down. There remains uncertainty regarding how long the ridge remains strong so something to keep an eye on heading forward. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered weak thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of Highway 20 in northwest Iowa at time of issuance. While these storms are not expected to become severe, they may produce wind gusts to 45 mph. Storms will continue to move southeast and clear out of the area in the next couple of hours. A mix of VFR and MVFR is expected for the first half of the period. Low to mid-level clouds are expected to linger into Thursday morning. Winds are light and variable. Patchy dense fog is expected to form, especially east of the James River Valley. Brief periods of IFR visibility and ceilings are possible. Winds remain light and variable though most of Thursday. As a result fog may linger into the mid-morning hours before daytime heating burns it off. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail for the remainder of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...AJP  323 FXUS63 KLMK 090804 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 404 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Risk of severe storms this evening and tomorrow night. There remains a Slight Risk (level 2/5) mainly west of I-65 and a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) to the east. Storms will arrive later this evening from the west and weaken as they move east overnight. Main impact gusty to locally damaging winds. * These storms will have the capability of producing very heavy rain over a short period of time. Widespread 1-2 inches is possible with locally higher. Slow moving storms could produce localized flash flooding. * Flood Watch: additional Rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall are expected Friday through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could be possible with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. * A drier overall pattern looks to take hold for early to middle next week. Look for highs in the upper 80s to near 90. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The main impacts through the short term will be the threat of severe storms with the main focus on the threat later this evening and overnight. There is also a flash flooding threat for the end of the week through the weekend. Highlighting that there is a potential for significant localized flash flooding as we will see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall over areas that are still saturated from previous heavy rainfall the last couple of weeks. Multiple shortwave disturbances and potential MCS/MCV will work across the Ohio Valley for the end of the week through the weekend. At the same time, a sfc boundary currently to our north across the Great Lakes, will slowly work southward and stall by the start of the weekend. This will setup a situation where we will have deep moisture over the region as the multiple waves of showers and storms work along this boundary. SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT: The bulk of the daytime hours today will be mainly dry as we will be between the departing system from last night and the next system coming in from the west later this evening and night. Convective development upstream over the Mid Mississippi Valley will occur later this afternoon then work eastward into western and central KY Thursday evening and continue into early Friday morning. SPC still has most locations along I-64 west of I-65 in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) with areas east from Louisville, Bowling Green to Lexington in Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms. As was mentioned in the previous discussion, deep layer shear for organized convection remains between 20-25kt and we likely have amble MLCAPE as we go into the evening and overnight as some of that instability becomes more elevated. With the combination of forward movement of the convection along with water loading from the high PWAT values around 2 inches the threat of gusty locally damaging winds remains the main threat. As storms work from the west-northwest to the east-southeast late this afternoon and evening the storms are expected to weaken as we lose daytime heating. That is why the Slight Risk is more to the west as it will have better instability to work with from daytime heating. This activity is expected to reach the I-65 corridor and north central KY closer to midnight, which will have lower instability thanks to the loss of daytime heating. As we see more waves of convection along similar boundaries there remains a marginal risk for additional strong to severe storms again on Friday. FLASH FLOODING: As was mentioned above, PWAT values are expected to be near if not above 2" not only tonight but Friday and through the weekend. Add to that, we already have very wet and saturated conditions across southern IN and Kentucky from the multiple round of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms going back the last two weeks. Models continue to advertise that some areas could receive 3-7 inches of rainfall through Friday evening with more showers and thunderstorms capable of producing additional heavy rainfall into the weekend. That is why a Flood Watch is in effect until late Saturday night. With this setup, and multiple waves of heavy rainfall working repeatedly over already saturated ground sets up the potential for significant flooding possibilities going into the weekend. Remain weather aware now and into the weekend, share updated weather information for those who may potentially be most impacted and remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown! when and if you come across flooded roads or areas. By the end of the weekend, the last of the convective waves of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, along with the stalled boundary will push southward and out of the area. This is expected to be followed by sfc high pressure building in from the north to help dry us out. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Forecast trends for the first half of the weekend continue to remain dry and warm as ridging is expected to build in over the region. Highs will build back into the upper 80s to near 90 Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 While VFR remain the main flight category through the forecast there are a few potential impacts that could for a period bring flight categories down to MVFR or even IFR. One of those being the potential for low CIGS or even a period of low VIS, mainly around BWG and other places that saw rain. Potential limiting factor maybe increased clouds and a steady light breeze but there are observations around the region where we are seeing MVFR to potentially IFR VIS already developing. Once any fog or clouds mix out VFR flight conditions will be around through the day as we will be between weather systems. Could see some SCT-BKN clouds between 2500-5000ft but not expected to be too much of a factor. The other potential impact comes towards the end of the period as the next system arrives with heavy rain and thunderstorms. Timing looks to be close to the 04-06z but will be dependent on what forms upstream over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and then when it gets here. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BTN  541 FXUS62 KFFC 090807 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 407 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Isolated to scattered storms Today will increase in coverage, becoming numerous over the weekend. - A few storms this weekend may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph and locally heavy rain. - Heat index values peak each afternoon between 95 and 105. Heat Advisory for portions of East-Central GA this afternoon/evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Another hot day on tap with temps expected to get back up into the 90s across much of the area. We have had a slightly drier airmass in place over the past few days with a Mid level ridge keeping precip chances very isolated across the region. Things start to change today as that ridge begins to break down and gulf moisture returns with the West to Southwesterly flow. We will see increased PoPs Today (20% to 40%) with chances continuing to increase into the weekend. With these elevated temps ans dewpoints have continued current Heat advisory across east central GA through this evening. These temps are expected to continue into the end of the week so its very likely necessary again on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this weekend and early next week as a shortwave sends a slow moving front south across the forecast area. Above normal precipitable water values overspread the state by Sunday with the highest rain chances seen Sunday into Monday before high pressure tries to build into the area. A few storms this weekend may become severe, though gusts from 40-50 mph with stronger storms will be more common. Additionally, given the moist environment, any storms may produce locally heavy rainfall which could lead to pockets of flooding if storm motions are slow or storms move over the same areas. Low rain chances remain in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday but any storm activity would likely be more isolated than previous days. Increased cloud cover in addition to rain chances will bring temperatures down a bit through the weekend with widespread temperatures across North and Central Georgia in the 80s by Monday. With drier conditions favored towards the middle of next week, an increase in temperatures is likely to return. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Some isolated showers left over from yesterdays convection are slowly diminishing this morning. Expecting Mainly VFR ceilings today with some MVFR ceilings and VSBYs in and around afternoon convection. With continued moist West to Southwesterly flow will see diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours. Winds are light and variable this morning but will see winds increase into the 5-10kt range out of the W to SW just after sunrise and stay there through the evening hours. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 95 74 94 74 / 30 20 30 20 Atlanta 93 75 93 75 / 40 10 40 20 Blairsville 84 66 84 66 / 60 20 50 50 Cartersville 92 73 92 73 / 40 10 30 40 Columbus 95 75 94 75 / 30 20 20 10 Gainesville 92 73 92 73 / 40 10 30 20 Macon 95 75 95 75 / 20 20 20 10 Rome 91 72 91 72 / 40 10 40 40 Peachtree City 92 73 92 73 / 30 10 30 20 Vidalia 99 78 99 77 / 10 10 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ085-086-097-098-106-108>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....Heller AVIATION...01  429 FXUS62 KKEY 090806 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Saharan Air Layer is moving across the Florida Keys and will keep rain chances down today. - Heat will be the primary weather concern this week. Heat indices may creep towards 110 before the weekend. - Shower coverage is expected to increase at the end of the week while a low in the upper atmosphere tracks westward across the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Quiet weather continues across the Keys this morning. A narrow but healthy surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretches westward across Central Florida and is driving breezy east to southeasterly flow across the Keys. This flow is holding up temperatures and current readings are in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. While this evenings sounding indicated a precipitable water not to far from normal at 1.67 inches, there was a robust subsidence inversion based just above 900 mb with a good slug of dry air. This has kept shower activity down to essentially non existent across our forecast area. A cut off upper low is currently creeping its way westward through the central Bahamas and has produced a weak lower level reflection that is beginning to move across Cuba. While today will remain dry, the weak trough will push through our area beginning tonight. This will wipe out the stable and dry layer holding showers at bay. Expect a slight to low chance for showers and thunderstorms beginning tonight. East to southeasterly breezes will remain moderate to fresh, peaking in the evening and early night hours and lulling slightly during the day. This will continue to drive slightly above normal temperatures with highs near 90, lows in the mid 80s, and dew points holding in the mid to upper 70s. The previously mentioned upper low will contribute to yet another lower level trough heading into the weekend. This will keep at least a low chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter, much drier and more stable lower levels is expected to sweep in. As a result, rain chances will be slight or less from later in the weekend and well into next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A robust Atlantic surface ridge will stretch across Central Florida over the next few days and result in moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes. Winds will tend to peak in the late evening hours and lull slightly during the day. At least marine cautions will be required for most of our waters through this stretch. For this weekend and into next week, winds will slowly trend downwards as the ridge retreats eastward and weakens slightly. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be moderate to fresh out of the east to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 83 91 83 / 0 20 30 30 Marathon 90 83 90 83 / 0 30 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  850 FXUS65 KBOU 090810 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 210 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Thursday, with the severe threat expanding further west to the Front Range. - Prolonged period of hot temperatures arrive Saturday, lasting through at least Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances remain low during this period. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 132 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Moisture will remain elevated today, with dewpoints in the upper 40s to potentially low 60s for the plains this afternoon. This moisture and steep low to mid level lapse rates will lead to decent instability today (MLCAPEs around 1000 to 1800 J/kg). The instability combined with weak upslope from east/southeast surface winds, a weak shortwave moving over the area, and 0-6 km shear around 30 to 45kts will provide the necessary ingredients for scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. The main severe hazards today will be large hail and strong winds, however we could see a landspout form if a storm develops near the DCVZ. There will also be the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the plains. Showers and storms are expected to form in the higher terrain and foothills in the early afternoon before moving east across the plains throughout the afternoon and evening. The upper level ridging will begin to build towards the area on Friday. Weak subsidence on the backside of today's shortwave and ahead of the upper level ridge will put a damper on our storm chances for Friday. However, storm chances won't go away completely. Dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 40s and 50s with decent instability. Shear looks to weaken slightly for the area on Friday, especially in our northern counties which will limit the severe potential. The main question that remains is where the outflow boundaries will set up on Friday from the convection on Thursday. Convergence along any residual boundaries and the weak upslope flow could be enough to trigger some more isolated convection Friday afternoon, but the severe threat will be lower (in both intensity and coverage) compared to Thursday. The upper level ridge will continue to build over the area for the weekend. The center of the high will move northeast throughout the weekend, parking over the NE/SD/IA area through the middle of next week. Under this strong ridge, we'll see large scale subsidence and hot temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to reach into the 90s to around 103 degrees in the plains for the first part of next week. The warmest temperatures are forecast to be in the northern I-25 corridor area. Right now, we have Major Heat Risk for portions of the urban corridor and I-25 corridor for Monday and Tuesday, including Denver, Boulder, and the Fort Collins area. This means there is a major risk for heat related illness in these areas, especially for people without effective cooling and proper hydration. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/... Issued at 1151 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Winds will follow typical drainage patterns overnight, with speeds around 5 to 10kts. Winds will become more variable in the early to mid morning, before eventually turning to the northeast by the late morning to early afternoon. Another round of storms are expected this afternoon. Timing will be similar to yesterdays storms, with the most likely time of 19Z to 23Z for KBJC and 20Z to 23Z for KDEN and KAPA. Erratic and gusty winds will be possible during this time period, due to strong outflow from storms. Storms should move out of the area by 00Z. The winds after this activity moves through will be tricky once again, thanks to outflow boundaries from the storms to the east potentially causing sudden wind shifts into the late evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...AP  453 FXUS66 KEKA 090816 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 116 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 KEY MESSAGES * Coastal Stratus and Fog: Marine low clouds and areas of fog will affect the immediate coast, bringing cool daytime temperatures and overnight dampness. * Interior Heat: An upper-level ridge will expand westward, causing temperatures to rise well above normal across inland valleys including Lake, Trinity, and interior Mendocino counties through the weekend. .SYNOPSIS...Shallow coastal stratus and fog will persist along the immediate coast with limited afternoon clearing through Friday. Inland areas will remain dry and hot under a building upper-level ridge. && .DISCUSSION...An upper-level ridge over the Southwest US is expanding westward over Northwest California. Subsidence aloft is compressing the marine layer, keeping it shallow and confined to the coast and adjacent lower valleys. Inland areas will experience warming, with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s becoming widespread across the interior valleys of Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake counties this afternoon. Early next week, the placement of the upper ridge will determine the track of potential monsoonal moisture. Current guidance indicates a continuing warm trend for the interior, with a low probability of thunderstorm development over northeastern Trinity County. && .AVIATION...A compressed marine layer has brought low ceilings and reduced visibilities to coastal locations. At KACV, IFR to LIFR conditions in stratus and fog will persist through mid-morning before gradual clearing. Temporary southerly surface winds at KACV and KCEC overnight indicate localized coastal eddy development rather than a sustained southerly wind pattern. Clear skies are forecast for KUKI. && .MARINE...The surface pressure gradient between an offshore surface high pressure system and an inland surface thermal low is tightening. South of Cape Mendocino, sustained northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots are generating steep, wind-driven seas. A Gale Watch is in effect for the southern outer waters starting at 5 AM Thursday morning through Thursday evening due to potential gusts up to 40 knots, with conditions being monitored for a potential upgrade to a Gale Warning. For the northern outer waters, winds of 20 to 25 knots combined with steep 9-foot waves at short 8-second periods satisfy advisory criteria. All coastal marine zones are currently under a Small Craft Advisory. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ415-450. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT Friday for PZZ455-470. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ475. Gale Watch from 5 AM PDT early this morning through this evening for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  640 FXUS65 KCYS 090823 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 223 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon with heavy rainfall, hail, and strong gusty winds possible. - An upper level ridge is may bring Red Flag conditions and potential heat advisory headlines starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 223 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today will be almost a wash, rinse, and repeat of yesterday. Models have showers moving into our area around 18z with thunderstorm development occurring around 21z. Convection looks to follow the diurnal trend once more with severe thunderstorms coinciding with prime heating and then waning off around 04z. Most of our forcing looks to exit our area around 03z so there may be some lingering showers going until about 06z or midnight. Bulk shear looks to be around 30-40kts with a temporary increase in intensity of 50kts near the WY/NE border around 00z then pushing east into central Nebraska. The thunderstorms will probably be pulsy until that better shear occurs to really organize and sustain the thunderstorms. Main threats will be gusty winds especially when the storms are pulsy. But once the storms start to organize the hail threat will increase with hail stones potentially up to golf balls but the window for that large of hail is going to be pretty limited as the forcing starts to depart the area. Torrential rainfall looks likely again as PWAT values creep towards the 1.0 to 1.25 inch mark. Urban flooding may be a factor to consider for today especially if the storms are slow moving since the upper levels winds look pretty lackluster for today. Friday, the intermountain west starts drying out as the upper level ridge starts build over the region. Min RH values look to range from 15 to 25 in Southeastern Wyoming and 25 to 35 percent in the Panhandle for elevated fire weather concerns. In the afternoon there is small/isolated chance of showers mainly near the Colorado with some models having a few showers move in from Colorado and dissipate in our forecast area. Low pops were kept to convey this possible outcome. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Update: Sunday through Tuesday looks like widespread Red Flag conditions as synoptic winds increase with daily RH values dropping below 15 percent. This combustible environment may undue all the work the beneficial rain did the past couple days. Combined with the warmer temperatures any fine fuels will probably cure to carry a wildfire if one develops. Previous Discussion. Saturday through Wednesday...Ridging aloft dominates our region, with quite dry air at low and mid levels, accompanied by 700 mb temperatures from 14 to 21 Celsius, thus chances for late day showers and thunderstorms will be nearly nil and non existent, and dry weather will prevail. The 700 mb temperatures will yield maximum temperatures in the 90 to 105 degree range. A weak perturbation and a slight increase in mid level moisture may spark isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday, and moreso on Wednesday, along the convective inhibition aloft gradient along the I-25 corridor and further to the west. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1108 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Showers continue to move off to the east, currently only impacting the KAIA terminals with light rain. Mostly cloudy skies continue across western Nebraska for the next 1 to 2 hours before clearing out into mostly clear skies overnight. With all the precipitation this evening, isolated, patchy fog may develop at KLAR, KCYS, KBFF, KSNY, and KAIA overnight into the early morning hours. Included TEMPO groups to cover this threat, though confidence is low at this time. Another round of showers and thunderstorms returns in the afternoon, with gusty and erratic winds expected in and around any showers or storms that develop. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...RUBIN/MM AVIATION...AM  659 FXUS63 KSGF 090824 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 324 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 30-40% chance for storms Thursday, and 40-70% chance Thursday night. Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes. - Moderate HeatRisk Thursday and Friday, but cloud cover and rain chances limit confidence in excessive heat occurring. - 40-75% rain chances continue into the weekend with potential for, yet low confidence in locations of, severe and flooding risks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 We're beginning the night with clear skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly winds have picked up some speed since last night and are currently up to 10-15 mph. An MCV and associated convection is currently making its way across eastern Nebraska and Kansas. It is quickly losing steam as instability drops off and the nocturnal inversion sets in. It is expected to continue weakening as it begins to impact the SGF CWA in the next few hours. Of course, the cloud cover, outflow boundaries, and overall impact on the environment of this early morning activity will likely have implications on the severe round of storms we are expecting later today. Though reinitiation along the trailing boundary is expected this afternoon, CAMs differ in both the timing and location of this development. Some models indicate redevelopment later and farther east than others due to their expectation of a more robust/longer- lasting area/period of cool stable air from the morning convection. The faster the morning activity and its associated cloud cover dissipate, the earlier we may see thunderstorms this afternoon. The early end of the window appears to be around 3-4 PM with most CAMs firing redevelopment by 6-7 PM. Storms appear to form along one or two semi-linear axes of instability/convergence and sweep through the CWA from northwest to southeast. Storms look to clear the southeast CWA boundary by somewhere in the 12-3 AM timeframe. With direct support from the LLJ, damaging winds will be the primary threat with these storms, especially in more organized linear and bowing segments. The hail risk appears to be more limited with the more robust deep-layer shear remaining in small pockets rather than becoming widespread. Hodographs are short, and storms will likely collapse on themselves before they become tall enough to deliver much in the way of hail. With pockets of better shear, though, the tallest storms may be able to produce a few larger hailstones up to the size of a quarter at most. Additionally, there is a low, conditional risk for weak tornadoes and waterspouts. The storm activity would need to sufficiently modify the environment to increase the low-level shear and moisture content, which is of course difficult to predict on the storm scale. For these reasons, the damaging wind threat largely overshadows the hail and tornado threat. Precipitable water values in forecast soundings are impressive, up to 2-2.5", which approaches and even exceeds the climatological max/record in the SPC sounding database. Plenty of instability and the potential for training, along with these high PW values, have prompted a Slight risk for excessive rainfall from SPC. While widespread totals are likely to remain below 0.5 inches, areas that experience the most mature storms and especially training storms may receive 3+ inches of rain in a short time period. One hour FFG ranges from 1.75"-3.00", and this environment will supportthe potential for 1-3"/hr rain rates. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The boundary responsible for today's mess is progged to stall out across the Ozarks for a couple of days, allowing widespread rain chances up to ~60% through Saturday with lingering precipitation into Sunday. With not much to move or modify things, marginal chances for severe thunderstorms will underlay the PoPs each day. Of course, with FFG likely being met in some places with just the first day in this series of wet days, flash flooding will continue to be a threat with additional rain through the weekend. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks reflect this. The good news is that the precipitation activity will quell the heat for several days, and highs will largely remain in the upper 80s through early next week. However, a signal for a return to uncomfortable heat in the day 8-14 timeframe does exist. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Conditions will largely remain VFR through the period, though there are scattered chances for thunderstorms both this morning and later tonight that may temporarily reduce ceilings. There is a damaging wind threat with the storm activity later tonight, which may impact airfield operations for a short time period due to LLWS. Outside of storm activity, winds will be primarily out of the southwest at less than 10 kts. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Nelson  679 FXUS65 KABQ 090825 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 225 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 208 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms. - A low risk of severe storms exists Thursday and Friday across far northeast NM, mainly in Union County. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 208 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The monsoon moisture plume draped from southwest to northeast over NM this morning will rotate clockwise today as a dry subtropical ridge builds east into AZ and an inverted trough moves west from south TX. A 60kt speed max on the northern periphery of the upper ridge will force an impressive dry intrusion into northwest NM this afternoon. Dry lightning strikes from Wednesday may lead to new fire starts today as single digit humidity and breezy northwest winds develop this afternoon. These dry northwest winds will also help to force temps above 100F around the Four Corners so a Heat Advisory has been issued. Meanwhile, showers and storms are likely to develop along the central mt chain then move southeast into the eastern plains thru this evening. Falling PWATs over much of the region will increase the chance for showers and storms with gusty winds and little to no rainfall, especially along and west of the central mt chain. Sufficient moisture, instability, and shear over far northeast NM ahead of the approaching speed max will allow a few storms to become strong as they move across northeast NM. The monsoon high will become more well-defined near the Four Corners Friday while low level moisture remains scant over the northwest half of NM. Another day of dry northwest breezes will help to force max temps above 100F around the Four Corners and the middle and lower RGV. Another Heat Advisory is likely, including the ABQ metro Friday. The upper level speed max from today will be exiting the Front Range Friday and help to assist with storm development over northeast NM. A couple more strong storms are possible. Models have been consistent forcing a moist outflow boundary from these storms southwest across all of eastern NM Friday night. A moderate gap wind is possible as NBM75th percentile gusts average 35 to 45 mph from near Santa Fe to the ABQ metro Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 208 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The moist outflow boundary from Friday night will help to set the stage for greater coverage of storms along and east of the central mt chain Saturday. The monsoon high will strengthen to near 598dm over central CO and allow steering flow to become more north-south over NM. A 40kt jet forming on the eastern edge of the upper level high will also provide broader ascent over eastern NM. Meanwhile, mid level deformation will be increasing over southeast NM as the inverted trough continues moving west from TX. A noteworthy uptick in storms with locally heavy rainfall is expected as PWATs rise above normal and model instability is impressive along and east of the central mt chain. The chances are increasing for a Flood Watch scenario in the Ruidoso area Saturday. These storms will force another moist outflow boundary west across the RGV into more of western NM for Sunday. Forecast confidence decreases by Sunday given uncertainties in how the inverted trough dampens into the broader synoptic circulation evolving over the southwest CONUS. The upper level ridge will build to near 599dm over WY and the Dakotas while an upper level shortwave off the Baja moves north toward SoCal. This pattern will force a shift to deep layer east-southeast flow over the entire southwest CONUS early next week. Rich moisture will be deepening over the region but a large dry intrusion above 500mb may limit convection over much of central and eastern NM Monday thru Wednesday. Western and southern NM stand the best chances for showers and storms at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated, gusty -SHRA lingering over the region late this evening will dissipate thru sunrise Thursday. SHRA/TS will redevelop over the high terrain between 12pm and 3pm then move erratically south and east into nearby highlands and valleys on convective outflows. The main focus will be along and east of the central mt chain. A direct hit will be capable of wind gusts >40KT with brief moderate rain and lightning strikes. A couple storms over far northeast NM may become strong between 2pm and sunset Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Dry lightning strikes over northwest NM Wednesday evening may lead to new fire starts as a few hours of near critical fire weather are expected around the Four Corners today. Several hours of single digit humidity are expected with northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and ERC values >90th percentile. Meanwhile, storms with small footprints of wetting rainfall will develop along and east of the central mt chain this afternoon. Storm motion will be erratic toward the south and east around 10 to 20 mph. Any storms across central NM will be dry with strong outflow winds and little to no rainfall. A similar scenario is in store Friday but with lighter winds across northwest NM and fewer storms overall. The exception will be northeast NM where a few strong storms are possible. These storms will force a moist boundary westward to the central chain Saturday. There will be greater coverage of storms with wetting rainfall along and east of the central mt chain Saturday afternoon. The risk of burn scar flooding will increase in the Ruidoso area. Outflow from this activity will force low level moisture farther west toward the AZ border Sunday with increasing storm chances for southern and western NM into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 100 62 99 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 95 48 95 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 92 59 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 93 58 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 90 59 90 58 / 5 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 94 58 95 57 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 90 60 91 60 / 5 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 90 65 92 66 / 50 10 10 0 Datil........................... 87 61 89 62 / 30 10 5 0 Reserve......................... 96 55 97 56 / 20 10 30 10 Glenwood........................ 100 59 100 60 / 40 20 30 10 Chama........................... 87 49 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 89 65 91 66 / 40 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 91 58 92 59 / 10 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 56 89 56 / 30 0 0 0 Red River....................... 79 49 79 48 / 30 0 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 83 44 84 44 / 20 0 10 5 Taos............................ 91 53 92 54 / 20 0 0 0 Mora............................ 87 54 88 55 / 30 0 20 5 Espanola........................ 96 61 98 62 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 91 64 93 65 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 61 96 62 / 20 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 70 99 71 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 67 100 67 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 101 65 104 67 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 68 101 69 / 10 5 0 0 Belen........................... 101 65 103 66 / 10 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 101 67 102 68 / 10 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 100 64 103 65 / 10 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 101 67 103 68 / 10 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 100 65 103 66 / 10 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 96 68 98 69 / 10 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 100 67 102 68 / 10 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 102 71 104 72 / 20 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 93 64 94 64 / 10 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 93 63 95 64 / 10 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 95 60 96 60 / 10 5 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 96 56 97 57 / 10 5 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 90 58 91 58 / 20 10 10 5 Mountainair..................... 94 61 96 61 / 20 10 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 92 63 94 63 / 20 20 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 95 68 97 68 / 20 20 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 87 63 88 62 / 40 20 40 10 Capulin......................... 87 53 86 53 / 60 20 60 40 Raton........................... 91 53 91 53 / 50 10 40 20 Springer........................ 93 55 93 55 / 50 5 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 90 56 91 57 / 50 5 20 20 Clayton......................... 95 61 92 61 / 40 30 10 50 Roy............................. 91 59 91 59 / 30 10 20 40 Conchas......................... 100 66 100 65 / 20 20 5 50 Santa Rosa...................... 96 64 97 64 / 30 20 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 101 69 101 67 / 20 30 0 60 Clovis.......................... 100 68 100 67 / 0 20 0 40 Portales........................ 100 70 101 69 / 0 20 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 100 70 100 69 / 10 20 0 20 Roswell......................... 102 72 103 72 / 0 20 0 0 Picacho......................... 97 66 98 66 / 20 20 5 0 Elk............................. 94 64 95 63 / 50 10 30 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42  657 FXUS65 KBOI 090824 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 224 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry, with breezy afternoon winds through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week with the arrival of monsoon moisture. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/...A few degrees of cooling with northwest surface winds are expected today behind Wednesday's weak cold front. Hi-res models indicate storm activity this afternoon should remain south of the Idaho border and east of Banner Summit in central Idaho, but outflows up to 45 mph may travel into the SW Idaho Highlands this evening. Beginning Friday, high pressure across the Desert Southwest is forecast to build north into the N Rockies, introducing a rapid onset of heat as south-southwest flow develops over the forecast area. This flow will generate breezy southwest surface winds across much of SE Oregon and the mountains of SW Idaho Friday afternoon. Latest model guidance places lower valley temperatures around 100 degrees, with mountain valleys in the 80s/90s. Temperatures will remain hot on Saturday, with lower valleys peaking in the upper 90s to 105 degrees. Overnight/morning temperatures will also remain warmer than normal, reducing the opportunity for heat-relief and increasing Heat Risk across the Snake Plain and south to the NV border on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...Slight cooling is anticipated from west to east on Sunday as a Pacific trough approaches the PNW coast. Temperatures will still remain hot, however, as deep south-southwest flow persists from the ridge dominating to the east. Cloud coverage is forecast to increase Sunday and Monday as mid/high level monsoon moisture makes its way north into the region. Precipitable water values will begin to ramp up significantly by late Monday, reaching 1.00"+ by Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase through mid-week as the influx of moisture continues. While storms may initially be anemic and produce gusty outflows early in the week, storms will evolve into heavy rain producers if PWATs climb near/above 1.00". Max temps will hover at 5-10 degrees above normal through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1123 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 VFR. Localized terrain obstruction from wildfire smoke. High density altitude due to heat. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts 20-25 kt from KMUO to KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Foothills may be obscured at times due to nearby wildfire smoke. Surface winds: W-N 5-15 kt. Afternoon gusts near 20 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR, except localized visibility reductions in the vicinity of wildfires. Isolated convection over central ID mtns Friday. High density altitude due to heat, esp Saturday. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt Friday through Sunday. Afternoon gusts to 20-30 kt mainly across E Oregon and the higher terrain of SW Idaho. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM....SH AVIATION.....SH  792 FXUS63 KICT 090827 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 327 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional thunderstorm chances develop later this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected, though the strongest storms may be capable of damaging winds and small hail. - Continued chances for showers and storms through the weekend, especially late overnight into the early morning hours. - Mid-upper 90s expected today with lower 90s this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Currently, a relatively flat ridge extends across the Western US with a shortwave situated over the Northern Plains. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is positioned just ahead of this wave across the Upper Midwest and into Nebraska. A stationary boundary is draped just to the north of our forecast area that pushed across the state yesterday as a warm front. Afternoon temperatures yesterday topped out a couple of degrees above normal and similar conditions are expected today before the frontal boundary over Nebraska pushes across the region later tonight. Rain and general thunderstorms developed overnight across the Flint Hills and linger over eastern Kansas early this morning. This activity will gradually shift east out of the area and diminish in intensity through the morning hours. As the frontal boundary to our north begins to push south into our area later this afternoon/evening, a few diurnally driven storms will fire ahead of the boundary in southern Kansas. More widespread rain and storm chances are expected as an MCS off the High Plains pushes eastward during the late evening and overnight hours. Most guidance is directing this feature across central Kansas, though nearly all locations remain in play at this time. The main threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts, primarily across western and central Kansas as storms are expected to weaken as they progress eastward. Scattered rain and storm chances will continue into Friday and Saturday as the frontal boundary stalls across the southern tier of our area. Exact storm position will depend on where this boundary settles. Then, as a strong ridge builds over the central US next week, the forecast area looks to reside under easterly flow. This setup could support a few showers and weak storms as Gulf moisture pushes into the region. With current model placement of the mid/upper high, the southern portion of our area, or even south of Kansas, would be the most likely location of this convective activity next week. As previously mentioned, temperatures this afternoon will once again reach a couple degrees above normal (mid-upper 90s) ahead of the frontal boundary. Behind the boundary, slightly "cooler" temperatures are forecast with highs reaching into the lower 90s for Friday into early next week. As the ridge builds over the region, temperatures will begin to creep warmer through mid week. It continues to appear that the ridge will build far enough north that the true heat dome will remain north of our region. Even so, high temperatures for the middle of next week look to reach into the middle 90s, with upper 90s possible for far south-central Kansas. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Scattered showers/storms will continue to develop and increase in coverage for locations mainly along and east of the Kansas turnpike overnight. Some of the storms could produce brief periods of heavy rainfall. Meanwhile a surface low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will drop southward across the region for late tonight into Thursday. This will cause the winds to switch around from the south to more of north then easterly direction in the wake of the frontal passage. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMD AVIATION...CDJ  204 FXUS63 KGID 090833 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - After morning showers/storms dissipate, dry conditions are expected through at least early evening. - Weakening storms arrive from the west late this evening. There is a low chance (5%) for a few strong to marginally severe wind. - Isolated thunderstorms remain possible on Friday, but most areas will stay dry and severe weather is unlikely. - Mostly dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures are expected through the weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 As of early this morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to develop east of Highway 281, with an additional cluster of storms between Lexington and North Platte slowly moving eastward. This convection has been more pesky than anticipated, but CAMs still suggest that it will mostly dissipate by around sunrise. That said, recent runs of the HRRR do suggest potential for an isolated storm or two to persist through at least mid-morning. At any rate, severe weather remains unlikely with this activity. After this activity clears, dry conditions are expected for the rest of the daytime (and most of the evening as well). Behind the cold front that moved through Wednesday evening, temperatures are expected to be a solid 5-10 degrees cooler than with a light northeasterly wind. Convection should blossom over the Nebraska panhandle down into eastern Colorado this afternoon and evening, gradually moving eastward with time. CAMs suggest this could reach our western zones by around 10pm, but should be on a weakening trend as it does so. Nevertheless, some marginally severe winds (and possibly some smaller hail) are possible, mainly in portions of northern Kansas and west of Highway 183 in Nebraska. Friday looks to remain mostly dry, although an isolated storm or two remains possible, possibly aided by convective outflow from the previous night. Convective parameters could maybe support a few strong storms, but the overall threat for severe weather is low. Dry and gradually warmer weather is still on tap for the weekend and into next week. That said, the timing of the potentially warmest days continues to shift later into the week, and the most intense could actually end up remaining to our north. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight and Thursday... A cold front, currently draped across northern Nebraska, will later be expected to dip southward into much of south central Nebraska this evening and later on into north central Kansas overnight. A few storms will be expected to fire up along this front between mainly 6PM and 3AM as the front drifts southward. In addition, a cluster of scattered storms (recently observed cumulus expanding across northeast Colorado) will later be expected to roll in from off the High Plains. These storms will possibly merge with activity developing along the cold front, expanding the coverage of and extending the time of lingering storms through the early morning hours of Thursday. The latest high-resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) guidance has recently backed precipitation potential off by around 20% with a now a more broad range forecast of 30-70% PoPs across the area for tonight. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST models have come in a bit drier (more scattered storm coverage) and continue to diverge on when and where the best storm potential will come. The HRRR is more aggressive with the earlier convection occurring along the cold front between mainly 5PM and midnight. As result, the HRRR keeps the bulk of the storms mainly north of I-80. The NAMNEST on the other hand is more aggressive with the overnight convection rolling in from the high plains. As result, it keeps a majority of the storms concentrated south of I-80 and later in the night (2-8AM). In reality, the best scenario tonight would likely be a combination of the two scenarios where a few storms do initially form along the front and approach later in the night from the west. Given somewhat favorable conditions for thunderstorm maintenance (1,500-2,5000J/kg of MUCAPE with 25-40kts of bulk shear), it is more than reasonable to suspect that a few of these storms would be able to take on some strong to severe characteristics. Though hail up to the size of half dollars may be possible, the hail threat will mainly fall within the initial storms firing up along the front. The main severe threat tonight, however, will likely be the potential for gusty winds up to near 70MPH, especially within storms racing in from the west. The main uncertainty for severe weather this evening will be if the storms firing along the front earlier in the evening/night inhibit the severe potential for the later storms coming in from the west. There is somewhat of a concern if the convection along the front may undercut the severe threat overnight to a degree, though the presence of a steady 20-30kts low-level jet across north central Kansas may also play a small role. In addition, the merging of these two storms clusters could create an expansive area of heavy downpours. The possibility of 1" per hour rainfall rates (1.5-1.8" PWAT values) mixed in with the potential for multiple waves of thunderstorm activity could bring meaningful precipitation amounts (up to 1-2+") to a handful of locations (10- 20% of the coverage area). The Weather Prediction Center has also introduced a slight risk of excessive rainfall (15-40% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point) to the full area. Given the overall decrease in expected storm coverage, the flash flood potential has also overall decreased some as well. Beyond the precipitation chances tonight, the light to steady surface winds (5-15MPH) will back from the southerly directions this afternoon to an easterly one overnight. Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will drop highs to the mid 80s to low 90s for Thursday. Though the potential for severe weather returns Thursday night (Marginal risk for western and southern portions of the area), the overall storm coverage may likely be more isolated and concentrated towards far west/south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A few storms, again racing out from off the High Plains just after 10PM, will have to potential to clip a few western/southern portions of the area. These storms, given the time of night, will probably be on a downward trend, leading us to speculate that the severe threat should mostly be more isolated rather than widespread. Friday into Next Week... Though one final low-end chance for storms does lie Friday night (10- 30% chances), the main story Friday into next week will be the heat. Highs Friday through the middle of next week will begin a gradual climb from the mid to upper 80s to the low to mid 90s. This warm up will come as a massive ridge is favored to form across much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions starting on Saturday. This ridging pattern is in good agreement within the long-range ensembles to stick around for most if not all of next week (>80% confidence). The presence of this massive ridge should bring warm, subsiding air to the region that will work to thwart off most of the precipitation potential next week. (The LREF {Long Range Ensemble Forecast} only shows a 10-40% chance for at least 0.1" of precipitation through the week). The main uncertainty at this time will be for how substantial the warmup will become (will highs next week peak in the upper 90s or low 100s?). What does look almost certain will be the presence of a streak of 90+ degree days. The only forecast element that could keep such a streak from taking place would be from a rogue daytime thunderstorm or excessive cloud cover that manages to peak in (not very likely to occur underneath such pattern). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR Ceilings possible ~10-15z, otherwise VFR conditions expected during TAF period. SCT-BKN stratus will build over the area through sunrise. Some of this stratus may fall to MVFR, though the duration at KGRI/KEAR is uncertain. Due to the scattered nature of MVFR status, a TEMPO group was used to indicate this potential. Stratus clears by the mid-late morning hours, first at KEAR then KGRI, with high level clouds possible through the end of the TAF period. Light and variable winds become northerly, shifting the northeast Thursday morning, then to the east Thursday evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Davis  249 FXUS65 KMSO 090834 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 234 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warmest temperatures of the summer this weekend through early next week. Elevated heat risk for those sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration. - Low relative humidity and increased west winds will result in elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday and Sunday, especially in southwest Montana. High pressure will build across western Montana and north central Idaho beginning today into the weekend. Thunderstorm activity will generally decrease today, with the only notable chances confined to the southern tip of Lemhi County in Idaho. By Friday evening, atmospheric conditions will become more unstable, bringing another round of potential thunderstorms. These storms will mainly focus over southwest Montana and Lemhi County, carrying the threat of strong, gusty winds between 40 and 50 mph. Temperatures will surge on Saturday and remain unseasonably hot into early next week. Valleys across western Montana can expect daytime highs in the 90s, while lower elevation areas like Hells Canyon and the lower Salmon River valleys will likely reach triple digits. Forecast models indicate a high confidence (70 percent) of moderate heat impacts for valleys along and east of Highway 93, meaning individuals sensitive to heat may be adversely affected. There is also a 30 percent chance of major heat impacts that could affect anyone lacking adequate cooling and hydration. In addition to the heat, strong upper-level winds combining with low daytime humidity will create near-critical fire weather conditions in southwest Montana and Lemhi County this Saturday and Sunday. For those recreating outdoors this weekend, please prioritize safety: stay consistently hydrated, take frequent breaks in the shade, avoid strenuous activities during peak afternoon heating, and practice extreme caution to prevent any sparks or fire starts in these dry, windy conditions. A significant pattern change is expected next week as a surge of moisture moves into the region from the south. This will elevate the risk for widespread, rain-producing thunderstorms across western Montana and north-central Idaho by midweek, offering a stark contrast to the dry and windy weekend conditions. Initially, this moisture will arrive in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Because the air near the surface will still be very dry, the first storms that develop early next week may produce very little rainfall at the ground but will be highly capable of generating strong, erratic outflow winds. && .AVIATION...High pressure building across western Montana and north-central Idaho will maintain predominantly VFR conditions across regional terminals through the forecast period. For this afternoon, surface winds will generally prevail from the west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots, with localized gusts up to 20 knots expected, particularly across western Montana terminals. Thunderstorm activity today will be minimal, with any isolated convective development restricted to the far southern portions of Lemhi County. On Friday, increasing atmospheric instability by the evening hours will introduce a renewed risk of thunderstorms. Convective activity will remain primarily focused over southwest Montana and Lemhi County (KBTM and KSMN), with any developing storms capable of producing strong, erratic outflow winds gusting between 35 and 45 knots. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$  538 FXUS63 KLOT 090842 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 342 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are expected at times through this evening. These storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall which may lead to flooding, particularly if they stall or redevelop over areas hardest hit from last weekend. - The strongest storms will also be capable of gusty to locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening, greatest threat south of I-80. - Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The earlier complex of thunderstorms approaching from eastern IA/southwest WI has mostly eroded with only a few areas of rain remaining. Not currently expecting any additional lightning through the remainder of the overnight hours with this activity but will still have to keep an eye on the remnant MCV moving into northwest Illinois but it should move out over the lake already by 7-8 AM. Earlier warm advective showers southwest of the metro managed to produce a few lightning strikes but have since decreased in coverage. Still can't rule out a few spotty showers south of the Kankakee River Valley through daybreak. Attention then turns to a second MCV moving across central Iowa. This feature is expected to progress east toward the area through mid morning. Concerns are that this could lead to an earlier "first round" of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm development from mid morning through early afternoon (30-40 percent chance). Forecast soundings show a largely uncapped environment here locally already after 9-10 AM so any forcing for ascent (such as with an MCV) would support thunderstorm development. Model guidance has been struggling with handling these smaller scale mesoscale features and have based the first 12 hours of the forecast largely on radar, satellite, and observational trends. As the aforementioned MCV begins to shift southeast out of the area toward mid-late afternoon, additional thunderstorm development may then occur within the vicinity of a residual outflow boundary or convergence axis situated across northern and northeast Illinois. Exactly where this boundary ends up as well as what the coverage of showers/storms will be remains lower confidence, at least initially given a potentially slower arrival of the parent mid-level vort/wave (which is still out over northern NE/southern SD). Suspect that coverage may remain more isolated to widely scattered during the afternoon until the wave arrives leading to increasing coverage during the evening (potentially still over portions of the Chicago metro) before gradually shifting south and east and out of the area overnight. The primary hazard with any thunderstorms today (from mid morning through this evening) will be localized heavy rainfall. PWATs in the upper end of climatology (2"+) will be supportive of instantaneous rainfall rates in excess of 1-2"/hr. Given the increased susceptibility for flooding in many areas after last weekend's multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, will continue to message the localized threat of flooding. In spite of generally weaker shear, precip loaded downbursts will remain possible with the strongest storms which could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph). The greatest threat (and level 1 out of 5 threat for severe weather) is greatest for areas well south of I-80 but can't fully rule it out areawide. In the wake of our showers and storms a backdoor cold front is expected to move inland off Lake Michigan late in the evening. This may bring a period of fog and/or very low clouds across much of the metro through early Friday morning, some of whichcould end up locally dense. Something to keep an eye on with later forecasts. Looking ahead to Friday, additional convectively augmented shortwaves are expected to move across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions. Think that the majority of the shower and storm coverage with these features will remain largely south of the area but have maintained 20-40% chances for areas south of a Peru, IL to Rensselaer, IN line in case they end up a bit farther north. While a few diurnally driven showers can't be ruled out on Saturday, upper level ridging expands across the central CONUS over the weekend into early next week which should lead to mainly dry conditions into the first part of next week with temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. Given we will be on the northeast periphery of the ridge we will have to monitor the potential for thunderstorm complexes rounding the ridge across the broader region toward midweek. Petr && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - 20-30% chance for isolated showers early Thursday morning, mainly near RFD. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Any of which could result in localized heavy downpours and reduced visibility. - MVFR ceilings Thursday night into Friday morning with potential for patchy fog after midnight. A busy weather and complicated TAF period ahead as several disturbances will be pivoting through northern IL and northwest IN. Prior to the arrival of the disturbances, increasing VFR clouds are expected tonight with light southwest winds that will become more westerly by Thursday morning. As we head into Thursday morning, the line of decaying line of showers and embedded thunderstorms (currently in IA and southwest WI) will be moving through northwest IL. With radar continuing to show these showers eroding suspect that mostly dry conditions will prevail through Thursday morning, but with an embedded convectively enhanced low being noted within the showers cannot fully rule out some isolated showers developing around daybreak and lingering through the morning (20-30% chance). Due to the lower confidence on coverage of any morning activity have opted to maintain VCSH at all TAFs with a PROB30 at RFD where confidence is slightly higher that something could materialize. Regardless of what develops Thursday morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the outflow boundary from tonight's storms that should be draped over northern IL. While exact timing as to when the afternoon activity will kick off remains uncertain, latest forecast guidance trends seem to be leaning towards a 21-22z initiation with thunderstorms likely to persist through at least 01-02z as the boundary slowly drifts south through the terminals. Though, there is a chance that some showers could linger through the evening especially if the boundary is slower than forecast. For now have opted to maintain the broad VCSH mentions with targeted PROB30s for the better thunder windows at each location. Any showers/storms this afternoon will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours which would result in IFR visibilities and possibly even some ponding issues particularly near the saturated areas from last week's rains. Showers and storms should taper after 03z as the boundary drifts south and the associated disturbance pivots east of the area. In the wake of the boundary a northeast wind shift will occur with speeds initially around 8-10 kts but those will be waning to around 5 kts after midnight. Ceilings will also lower to MVFR behind the boundary where they look to remain for the rest of the forecast period. While there is a signal for some IFR ceilings as well, confidence on their coverage is low so have opted to handle with a SCT012 mention for now. Furthermore, there is also a decent signal for patchy fog to develop near Lake Michigan and ooze inland overnight some of which could be locally dense. At this time the 30-hour TAFs will have a 6SM BR mention to tease the fog, but more refined TEMPOs may be needed for lower visibilities as confidence grows. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  837 FXUS63 KILX 090847 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 347 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Damaging Wind Threat (This Afternoon - Friday): Scattered afternoon thunderstorms bring a chance of localized 60-mph damaging wind gusts across central and southeast Illinois. - Localized Flash Flooding (Tonight - Weekend): Heavy, torrential downpours bring a chance of localized flash flooding with rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches, centered primarily across southeast Illinois. - Heat Returns (Next Week): There is increasing confidence in a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions that grip the area starting Monday, July 13. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .Synopsis... An active, mesoscale-driven summer pattern is unfolding across the region today, characterized by high convective uncertainty but a conditional threat for both isolated severe weather and localized flash flooding. High-amplitude ridging takes over by early next week, signaling a transition toward a much hotter and drier regime. .Today and Tonight... Early morning observations track a pair of weakening Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) upstream, situated over eastern Iowa and eastern Kansas. Guidance generally agrees that convective- enhanced mid-level shortwaves (MCVs) tied to these systems will shift east-southeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon, dragging a surface cold front along with them. Short- term models diverge significantly, however, regarding afternoon convective initiation near the decaying MCVs and how far south the surface front will progress. In the capped scenario, championed by the HRRR and RAP, a stable layer will keep the environment weakly capped through the afternoon, suppressing widespread storms over central Illinois and shifting the primary axis of uncapped instability toward southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (south of Interstate 70) through late afternoon. Conversely, an alternative modeling camp projects a more uncapped and moderately unstable environment ahead of the front and beneath the MCV. If this more aggressive camp verifies, 1500–2500 J/kg of SBCAPE will foster more widespread convective coverage across central Illinois. Although deep-layer flow remains modest, simulated soundings reveal low-level inverted-V profiles and substantial dry-air entrainment for precipitation loading. This indicates a localized threat for 60 mph damaging wind downbursts with any robust updrafts that can mature. Ultimately, the verification of these scenarios depends on morning cloud cover trends over central Illinois; a persistent cirrus shield would severely limit afternoon thunderstorm development. Regarding the overnight hydro potential, model solutions remain split on the fronts evening position, which directly impacts how far north the low-level jet (LLJ) axis will extend overnight. Taking an ensemble approach, the HREF stalls the surface boundary near the Interstate 72 corridor tonight, keeping the core of the LLJ over far southern Illinois while its northern edge brushes Interstate 70. If this HREF solution verifies, the threat for flash flooding will remain confined to far southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. On the other hand, coarser deterministic guidance like the NAM and GFS drives the LLJ core much farther north, aligning it closely with Interstate 70. If these coarser models prove correct, a heightened hydrological threat will emerge for the area, with localized rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches through Friday morning. .Friday through the Weekend... Forecast uncertainty persists through the weekend, heavily driven by the evolution and intensity of upstream nocturnal convection and how it alters the background shortwave energy and fronts position over central Illinois on Friday and Saturday. This typical MCV-season setup is notoriously difficult for convective-allowing models (CAMs) to resolve given the weak synoptic forcing. Friday presents a similar challenge to today, with a decaying MCV tracking from Missouri into Illinois by afternoon. Should the boundary layer destabilize optimally, scattered downbursts capable of severe wind gusts will become a concern again. Rain chances beyond Friday depend heavily on the strength of this convective-augmented shortwave. Progressive solutions, such as the ECMWF and its EPS ensemble, suggest a weaker open wave that pushes the front well south, effectively ending rain chances by Friday night. Meanwhile, the GFS and GEFS show a stronger closed wave that cuts off and lingers over southern Illinois, keeping daily shower and storm chances active through the weekend. At this point, both outcomes are equally plausible. Aside from the isolated severe wind risk, localized flash flooding driven by highly efficient warm-rain processes is a notable concern, as precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast to exceed 2.0 inches (above the 90th percentile for July). Consequently, training and back-building convective cells capable of torrential rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour must be monitored closely along any stalled boundary. .Extended Outlook... Once the stalled boundary dissipates or pushes south by late weekend, long-range model guidance shows excellent agreement on the rapid expansion of a subtropical ridge across the central United States. Medium-range ensembles (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) consistently project an anomalous upper-level high centering over the Central Plains between July 13 and July 16. Sensible weather conditions across central Illinois during this extended timeframe will depend significantly on the exact longitudinal placement of the ridge core. A more western orientation would keep the local area under active northwest flow aloft, opening the door for periodic ridge-riding MCSs that would cap afternoon temperatures through persistent cloud cover and convective debris. Conversely, an eastern orientation shifts the ridge axis further east directly into the Corn Belt, allowing a regime of hot and dry weather to quickly manifest by mid-July. Recent ensemble guidance trends continue to favor this latter, eastward-shifting scenario, indicating an increasing likelihood of building heat and dry conditions heading into the middle of the month. Unlike our last spell of hot weather, dewpoints look to be somewhat suppressed beneath this heat dome, as the Gulf remains closed. The net effect will be hotter ambient temperatures (low to mid 90s), but lower heat index values (around 100F or less). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A modest SSW breeze less than 10 kt and VFR conditions will prevail overnight under the influence of a departing ridge. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across central Illinois mid to late Thursday afternoon into the evening. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  958 FXUS63 KDMX 090850 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog expected over parts of northern Iowa until sunrise this morning. - Showers and weak storms over southern/southwestern Iowa this morning, then the potential for pop up showers and storms into the afternoon to early evening. Severe weather is not expected. - High pressure is expected to set up over the central U.S. this weekend into next week, bringing much warmer temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Radar imagery early this morning continues to show a decreasing trend in showers and storms across Iowa, with very light showers over eastern Iowa and an additional area of showers and weak storms over southwest Iowa. As forcing for lift continues to diminish with the eastern activity, rain showers will likely end within the next hour or so. With the southwestern Iowa activity, which extends into eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, there is much stronger forcing for ascent, paired with support from the low level jet that is nosing into eastern Kansas/western Missouri, as well as moisture convergence to continue producing thunderstorms over this area. Overall trends indicate that while showers and weak storms are expected to continue through the morning over southwest/southern Iowa, the developing MCS will generally remain further south into Missouri through the morning, where any severe weather concern would be located. With any additional rainfall expected to be located in southwest/southern Iowa this morning yet, the Flood Watch over northern/northeastern Iowa has therefore been cancelled. Of note as well is the introduction of patchy fog in the forecast across northern Iowa this morning, as residual moisture from recent rainfall and a period of clear skies with light winds will lead so some areas of patchy fog development. Observations in far northwestern Iowa and southern Minnesota are already showing this, as well as satellite imagery, which should fade before or just after sunrise, especially as cloud cover further west makes its way into the state. For the rest of today, outside of the aforementioned showers and storms grazing southern Iowa, the mid-level shortwave over the region will continue its slow passage eastward through the day, with an area of weak low pressure tracking across Missouri towards the Ohio Valley and a larger area of surface high pressure sinking into the Upper Midwest. As a result, north/northeasterly winds will be common over Iowa, leading to temperatures only a touch cooler as highs are expected in the low to mid 80s. These temperatures paired with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will allow for instability values around 2000 J/kg overhead by the afternoon, with at least weak shear that could develop pop up showers and storms generally into the afternoon to evening before drying. The weak shear forcing will greatly limit any severe potential with any storms that can develop overhead, with CAM solutions quite varied on coverage and location. Any storms would likely come up and go down quickly, with lightning and gusty winds from collapsing storms the main concerns, as well as brief heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts are expected to be spotty, with amounts generally under and inch if any showers/storms can develop. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for another MCS developing over northern Missouri as CAMS and deterministic model members suggest in the vicinity of the surface low, and the increasing jet into that area as well into Friday morning. Not expecting this to impact Iowa, outside of a low potential for rain showers in the south, but will keep an eye on trends. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another 500mb shortwave is progged to pass over Iowa Friday before a high sets up this weekend pancakes much of the central U.S. Monday. Once the high sets up, an increase in temperatures is expected with highs making a run for the 90s through the early part of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Thunderstorms continue to move across portions of central Iowa early in the period. Gusty winds are possible in vicinity of storms along with MVFR cigs. MVFR to potentially IFR cigs are expected to develop over northern Iowa overnight and that may expand south to KDSM. Fog could occur near KMCW but at this time, expect stratus to prevail over fog. Conditions will gradually improve with cigs rising with diurnal heating and eventual clearing. KOTM could have a few showers and storms on Thu but potential is low enough to not include at this time. Mainly light wind except for any potential outflow induced winds near storms. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bury LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Donavon  186 FXUS66 KSEW 090857 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 157 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure aloft will lead to seasonal temperatures and dry conditions across Western Washington today. A weak front will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures to the region Friday into Saturday along with a chance for a little rain. High pressure will strengthen once again for warmer and dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday. Cooler conditions return by the middle of next week as onshore flow increases. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mostly high level clouds are drifting across the area this morning in zonal flow aloft while onshore flow near the surface begins to ease. With less in the way of low cloud coverage this morning, high temperatures across interior areas will see a little boost. Onshore flow ramps up once again late today ahead of a weak front that will reach the area Friday afternoon into Friday night. As with most fronts this time of year, the best precip chances will be restricted to the Olympic Peninsula and North Interior, but it's not out of the question to see a few sprinkles reach Seattle metro...just don't hold your breath on that. We will, however, see cooler temperatures and plenty of cloud cover that will linger into Saturday as a trailing upper trough comes onshore before lifting northeastward into British Columbia. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For Sunday through Tuesday, we'll be on the northwest periphery of a monster upper ridge building over the Rockies and Northern Great Plains. This will give us a mini warming trend with temperatures peaking in the lower (or mid) 80s in the warmest spots on Monday. Ensembles maintain anomalous upper troughing along the British Columbia coast into the middle of next week, but there's some disparity with regard to it's depth. We're quickly approaching the climatologically driest and warmest portion of the year in Western Washington. Most troughs approaching from the northwest by mid-July do little more than initiate increasing onshore flow to cool us down. Given that, a good day 7 forecast leans toward near climo temps and dry conditions. 27 && .AVIATION... Onshore flow continues through Thursday, though widespread stratus formation is less likely. There's a 30-50% chance of MVFR/IFR cigs returning along the coast after 09z Thu, though only a 20-40% chance it will push as far inland as KHQM. Additionally, there's a 15-30% chance of some marginal MVFR ceilings reaching inland to Seattle by daybreak. Where stratus does form, more rapid clearing is expected Thursday with VFR conditions for most TAF sites by 17-19z. A stronger marine push is expected Thursday night into Friday morning with an 80% chance of at least MVFR cigs developing along the coast by 06-08z Fri and a 40-60% chance of widespread MVFR cigs pushing inland to Seattle by daybreak Friday. Winds have settled overnight except for gusts up to 20-25 kts along the Strait of Juan De Fuca, impacting KCLM through Thursday. Elsewhere, winds remain lighter, generally less than 8 kts. KSEA...A pocket of stratus has lingered near the terminal since Wednesday evening, producing a ceiling deck around 3500-4500 ft. There's a 15-25% chance of marginal MVFR ceilings by daybreak. Ceilings are expected to lift above 5000 ft by 16-18z Thu with a scattered to broken high cloud deck lingering. There are better chances (40-60%) for widespread MVFR cigs to return by 12-15z Fri. Winds will be light through the period, from the southwest through Thursday morning, becoming west to northwest in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure over the coastal and offshore waters will remain in place today before weakening on Friday as aweak surface low shifts southward toward to just west of north Vancouver Island. An associated weak frontal system will cross the waters Friday afternoon into Friday night with little impact. High pressure rebuilds over the coastal waters Sunday into Monday. Diurnally driven increases in westerlies can be expected in the Strait of Juan de Fuca each the next several days. 27 && .FIRE WEATHER... The current onshore pattern will continue through the weekend which will lead to continued excellent nightly RH recoveries. A ridge of high pressure briefly rebuilds into the region early next week. While the onshore pattern will largely remain in place, warmer daytime temperatures and clear skies will likely lead to RH values dipping into the 30s and 20s, with the lowest values in the south interior and Cascades. This will allow fine fuels to continue to dry with elevated fire weather conditions. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$  186 FXUS66 KSEW 090857 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 157 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure aloft will lead to seasonal temperatures and dry conditions across Western Washington today. A weak front will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures to the region Friday into Saturday along with a chance for a little rain. High pressure will strengthen once again for warmer and dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday. Cooler conditions return by the middle of next week as onshore flow increases. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mostly high level clouds are drifting across the area this morning in zonal flow aloft while onshore flow near the surface begins to ease. With less in the way of low cloud coverage this morning, high temperatures across interior areas will see a little boost. Onshore flow ramps up once again late today ahead of a weak front that will reach the area Friday afternoon into Friday night. As with most fronts this time of year, the best precip chances will be restricted to the Olympic Peninsula and North Interior, but it's not out of the question to see a few sprinkles reach Seattle metro...just don't hold your breath on that. We will, however, see cooler temperatures and plenty of cloud cover that will linger into Saturday as a trailing upper trough comes onshore before lifting northeastward into British Columbia. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For Sunday through Tuesday, we'll be on the northwest periphery of a monster upper ridge building over the Rockies and Northern Great Plains. This will give us a mini warming trend with temperatures peaking in the lower (or mid) 80s in the warmest spots on Monday. Ensembles maintain anomalous upper troughing along the British Columbia coast into the middle of next week, but there's some disparity with regard to it's depth. We're quickly approaching the climatologically driest and warmest portion of the year in Western Washington. Most troughs approaching from the northwest by mid-July do little more than initiate increasing onshore flow to cool us down. Given that, a good day 7 forecast leans toward near climo temps and dry conditions. 27 && .AVIATION... Onshore flow continues through Thursday, though widespread stratus formation is less likely. There's a 30-50% chance of MVFR/IFR cigs returning along the coast after 09z Thu, though only a 20-40% chance it will push as far inland as KHQM. Additionally, there's a 15-30% chance of some marginal MVFR ceilings reaching inland to Seattle by daybreak. Where stratus does form, more rapid clearing is expected Thursday with VFR conditions for most TAF sites by 17-19z. A stronger marine push is expected Thursday night into Friday morning with an 80% chance of at least MVFR cigs developing along the coast by 06-08z Fri and a 40-60% chance of widespread MVFR cigs pushing inland to Seattle by daybreak Friday. Winds have settled overnight except for gusts up to 20-25 kts along the Strait of Juan De Fuca, impacting KCLM through Thursday. Elsewhere, winds remain lighter, generally less than 8 kts. KSEA...A pocket of stratus has lingered near the terminal since Wednesday evening, producing a ceiling deck around 3500-4500 ft. There's a 15-25% chance of marginal MVFR ceilings by daybreak. Ceilings are expected to lift above 5000 ft by 16-18z Thu with a scattered to broken high cloud deck lingering. There are better chances (40-60%) for widespread MVFR cigs to return by 12-15z Fri. Winds will be light through the period, from the southwest through Thursday morning, becoming west to northwest in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure over the coastal and offshore waters will remain in place today before weakening on Friday as aweak surface low shifts southward toward to just west of north Vancouver Island. An associated weak frontal system will cross the waters Friday afternoon into Friday night with little impact. High pressure rebuilds over the coastal waters Sunday into Monday. Diurnally driven increases in westerlies can be expected in the Strait of Juan de Fuca each the next several days. 27 && .FIRE WEATHER... The current onshore pattern will continue through the weekend which will lead to continued excellent nightly RH recoveries. A ridge of high pressure briefly rebuilds into the region early next week. While the onshore pattern will largely remain in place, warmer daytime temperatures and clear skies will likely lead to RH values dipping into the 30s and 20s, with the lowest values in the south interior and Cascades. This will allow fine fuels to continue to dry with elevated fire weather conditions. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$  318 FXUS64 KHUN 090859 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1037 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Mainly low to medium (30-70%) for showers and thunderstorms are expect today, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Friday. Heat index values should drop into the 95 to 100 degree range Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Showers along with a few lightning strikes at times continue to move east in portions of northeastern Alabama. Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in southwestern portions of Tennessee. Most of our northern Alabama and southern middle counties have remained clear with light or calm winds in place. However, we have not seen many visibility reductions so far. Satellite imagery shows clouds around 4000 to 6000 feet slowly building into northern Alabama. As a trough axis aloft that moves from NW Mississippi over the area towards daybreak, forcing/mixing should break up fog development where it occurs. However, some patchy dense fog is not out of the question for an hour or two in areas that remain mostly clear. Models show showers and scattered thunderstorms developing over southwestern portions of northern Alabama between 4 and 6 AM and spreading east into the morning hours. Expect cloud cover between 5000 and 10,000 feet to increase in coverage and thickness as well. Little shear is shown as the trough axis moves into NW Alabama towards daybreak today hours today. However, based on current SBCAPE seen in analysis, think some instability will still be available to tap into. So, maintained a low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly producing heavy downpours and frequent lightning towards daybreak on Thursday. This activity will likely push east and just south of the area after 1 PM. However, a low to medium (30-50%) of scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the afternoon hours on Thursday. Again, instability looks too meager for any severe microbursts, but heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will be the main threats. It is expected to be cooler on Thursday with highs only in the mid 80s to around 91 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect activity to dissipate sooner Thursday evening. However, another shortwave looks to push ESE through flow aloft overnight producing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to push into southern middle Tennessee and northeastern Alabama through daybreak on Friday. Low temperatures with cloud cover and a focusing mechanism for low level moisture will likely only drop into the lower 70s. The surface boundary associated with this upper level disturbance seems to linger over northern Alabama during the day on Friday. This would likely keep fairly high chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast(40-80%) into the early afternoon hours on Friday, before decreasing from west to east. SBCAPE climbs higher to between 2000 and 4000 J/KG in most guidance. Between the better instability, lift, and some soundings showing theta E difference values increasing again to around 30 again, severe microbursts seem possible. Again the early arrival of precipitation around daybreak and continued development in the afternoon will keep highs in the mid 80s to around 91 degrees. Models seem to be set on this pattern of another shortwave moving southeast into northern AL and NE Tennessee late Friday night into very early Saturday morning as well. This should be ample ingredients for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Temperatures when you wake up should again be in the lower 70s. A medium to high (30-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected during this period. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours will be the main threats with any thunderstorms through daybreak on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 We will remain in a humid, tropical airmass through Saturday as zonal flow aloft is challenged by broad upper troughing over the northeast Atlantic. An increase in PVE with the warm humid airmass in place ahead will result in medium to high (70-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday peaking during diurnal heating hours of the afternoon. With PWAT values between 1.8-2", localized flooding could occur across areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain. As high pressure expands across the Great Lakes, a frontal boundary will shift southward on Sunday and should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity. Temperatures behind this feature will top out in the mid to upper 80s from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with cooler overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The good news is that this will keep the HeatRisk in the Minor (level 1) category which highlights the risk for heat related illness in those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will not be as dangerous overall compared to what we have experienced lately. Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the long term forecast but will primarily be diurnally driven with a very low risk for any severe storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Clear skies are still in place at both terminals with dewpoint depressions at zero degrees. Given that clear skies and calm winds will likely continue for a few more hours, included MVFR VSBY reductions as both terminals due to fog development (06Z to 08Z at KMSL and 06Z to 10Z at KHSV). Expect -SHRA and -TSRA to develop over both terminals (~ 8Z at KMSL and ~10Z at KHSV). This should keep dense fog from forming, but keep MVFR VSBYS in place at both terminals at times through 12Z at KMSL and 14Z at KHSV. Expect MVFR CIGS to develop around 13Z at KMSL and 15Z at KHSV. A prob30 for TSRA and MVFR VSBYS was included at both terminals later in the afternoon hours. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...KTW