377 FXUS63 KJKL 090900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 500 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area from this afternoon through early Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 445 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 08Z sfc analysis shows a weak boundary laid out just northwest of the JKl CWA and this is prompting the continued threat of showers and thunderstorms through this convective minimum into dawn. In fact, showers and thunderstorms are blossoming just northwest of our area of responsibility with additional lighter and scattered activity found over far eastern Kentucky. It is this activity, and the clouds associated with it, that is likely keeping the dense fog from becoming too widespread or extensive and generally more fleeting than that the past several nights. What is the same, though, is the high moisture content in the boundary layer with both temperatures and dewpoints nearly the same at each observation point - in the upper 60s and lower 70s - amid light and variable winds. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are only in broad agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all handle a key Central Plains shortwave slightly differently as it works east toward the Bluegrass State through the start of the weekend. The upper pattern starts with one mid level impulse moving through eastern Kentucky this morning along with some minor 5h height falls. This feature exits to the east this evening while fairly fast northwesterly mid-level flow remains in place into Friday. The next substantive wave up in this pattern is that ill modeled one over the Central Plains that ECMWF barely indicates while the GFS and NAM (slowest) are more distinctive with it. The weakness of this feature in the ECMWF allows more of its energy to work into Kentucky early on Friday while the other models keep it more contained and arriving later in the day. Either way, this pattern locally will support unsettled conditions through this part of the state well into the weekend. Despite the questionable agreement among the the finer fatuity's in the models through 00Z Saturday, the NBM was still used as the starting point for the grids as little difference in sensible weather can be expected from these model discrepancies. Did make some minor adjustment to PoPs by adding in the consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage from the latest CAM run's consensus. These results were again smoothed and fitted to a diurnal curve - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics - probably extending the convection deeper into the night. Sensible weather features typical wet summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be near normal for afternoon temperatures and humid with scattered to numerous afternoon/ evening convection expected. The influence of waves at mid-level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly this afternoon and beyond - will enhance the heavy rain threat and small potential for severe storms - mainly south and west of the area. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - cumulative into the weekend with isolated to scattered high water issues anticipated. For this reason a Flood Watch for flash flooding is in effect from this afternoon through Sunday morning. Temperatures will be moderated by the high moisture content suppressing highs in the afternoon and making for mild lows at night. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Friday evening. High moisture content to the air meant there were little opportunity to improve temps and dewpoints from the NBM through the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 500 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was primarily to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday - becoming more of a risk with time. The previous long term discussion follows: At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains. For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday. By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed. Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 Scattered showers/thunderstorms were noted to the northwest of the area at the start of the period, but the bulk of eastern Kentucky was clear of pcpn and were reporting a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions (due to fog and low clouds). An overall minimum in precip is expected as we move through the rest of the night, with largely VFR conditions until fog potentially settles in more completely. Meanwhile, the extent of the lingering cloud cover is a bit uncertain. Currently, generalized mid-upper level ceilings are forecast during the night, which would limit fog development compared to last night. However, with enough of a lasting decrease in them, fog could become a concern and bring deteriorating conditions. Some additional showers/thunderstorms could also develop through the rest of the night and bring reductions in ceilings and visibility. Uncertainty also abounds during the day concerning timing of showers/thunderstorms. It's likely that most places will be affected at some point. However, there is so much uncertainty regarding exact timing that it has been handled with PROB30 groups in the afternoon and evening. Outside of any storm, winds will be light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF AVIATION...HAL/GREIF  705 FXUS63 KBIS 090903 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through this evening. - A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the week, with very hot daily high temperatures around 95 to 105 forecast this weekend through early next week. An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for Saturday through Monday. - Mainly dry conditions are expected the hot spell. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A quasi-zonal flow will remain across the forecast area today and tonight. A shortwave trough and associated cold front will provide the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and this evening across the forecast area. Building upper height will then dominate through the weekend with an extended period of very hot temperatures and oppressive heat through the weekend and into next week. Currently skies ranged from clear east to mostly cloudy west as cirrus from Montana convection pushes into the state. Temperatures are mainly in the upper 50s to upper 60s early this morning. For today...A shortwave trough tracking through southern Canada will push an attendant cold front into northwest ND by this evening. Meanwhile, convection currently along the associated warm front over eastern Montana will push into North Dakota this morning. CAMS are in disagreement on how this convection will evolve this morning. Some keep convection along the International Border, some extend convection farther south and others bring convection almost to the South Dakota border this morning. There is also a lot of uncertainty in how far east convection spreads as well as the extent of this convection (isolated versus scattered). Forecast soundings indicate elevated instability over the area today. Currently there is some stronger effective shear over western ND with slightly unstable CAPE values pushing into the state from Montana. Through at least mid-morning, it looks like Effective shear will diminish but Cape will slowly increase. As mentioned earlier CAMS are in general disagreement, but most do at least bring some convection into the northwest this morning. How it evolves after this is uncertain. Also uncertain is how this will impact convection later today. In general, once the initial shortwave trough and associated convection moves through during the day, the forcing for ascent later in the day is not great. Medium range models indicate pressure falls in eastern Montana and western ND this morning, strongest early in the morning, then there are little if any pressure falls at all this afternoon, before meager falls this evening tracking through north central to northeast ND. At the surface today, low pressure moves into western ND around midday then slowly pushes east through the afternoon. By mid to late afternoon there is a pre-frontal trough over western ND pushing slowly into central ND and a Cold front that is pushing into northwest ND. A very unstable airmass will be situated over much of western and central ND with MLCAPE values around 3000 J/Kg. Although bulk shear is not great, there is sufficient shear (around 25 to 35 knots) orientated nearly perpendicular across the surface trough from southwest into north central ND. The question becomes, will there be enough forcing for ascent from the surface convergence along the trough and only weak waves moving through the broad upper level flow. If so, there will be the potential for rapidly developing supercells within the very unstable airmass and steepening lapse rates. Large hail to around 2 inches will be possible across central ND, along with winds gusts to 60 mph. Although parameters are not necessarily favorable for a tornado, given the slow moving boundary and supercell potential, a tornado can not be ruled out over central ND. Large hail looks to be the greatest hazard though. With all that said, currently cams do not look all that excited with convection later this afternoon through this evening. A few show convection developing southwest-south central and only a few show some convection developing over central ND. Wondering if this is due to at least in some extent to the CAMS showing convection tracking across the area today, associated with the ongoing Montana convection, thus CAMS are assimilating a slow recovery behind this convection. So a lot may depend on how things evolve this morning and early afternoon. If convection does not track across the area, perhaps there will be a better severe potential later today. Either way, if convection does develop later this afternoon, into the evening, there threat fore severe storms will remain. In addition, there is an approaching cold front. If convection does hold off until this evening, bulk shear increases significantly, and there may be more threat of clusters of storms (moreso north) as the shear vectors are more parallel to the approaching cold front. Will continue to monitor. Once convection ends tonight, attention turns to an extended period of very hot temperatures and oppressive heat indices. We have issued an Extreme Heat Watch beginning midday Saturday and continuing through Monday evening. Sunday still looks to be the day with the highest potential for Heat Impacts, but all three days (Saturday through Monday) will see highs mainly in the mid 90s to around 100 to 105. Hottest temperatures will be in the southwest, but humidity will be higher in the northwest and central. It's possible that southern portions of the forecast area will see another day of hot temperatures and heat related impacts on Tuesday, but the uncertainty increases a bit and the north does cool off a little. Beyond Monday there is a bit of a drop in NBM ensemble high temperatures, but the spread also increases significantly. In the Saturday through Monday timeframe, the NBM ensemble spreads have actually tightened up. This has increased confidence in the potential for an impactful heat wave this weekend into early next week, in addition to the warm overnight lows only dropping to around 70 degrees. Therefore we went ahead with the Excessive Heat Watch. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain minimal through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Mostly VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period. Light southerly winds expected tonight and into Thursday morning. Southerly flow then increases to 10 to 20 mph over central ND Thursday afternoon and turns westerly over western ND. Winds then become light after 00Z Friday across the forecast area. Convection could push into western ND towards morning, but strong to severe storms are not anticipated with this activity. Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening across western and central ND. Any of these storms will contain gusty and erratic winds and hail, as well as the potential for MVFR ceiling and visibilities with any heavy downpours. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday night for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025- 031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062. && $$ DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH  633 FXUS63 KLSX 090902 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 402 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and a few brief tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with these storms through tonight. - Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible on Friday afternoon and evening, and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with these storms. - Generally dry weather is expected Sunday into next week with warmer than average temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain remain the primary forecast concerns today and Friday. An MCS over northeast Kansas looks like it's spinning up an MCV at this time. Short range guidance moves this MCV east through the day at varying speeds. The RAP may be the slowest, only pushing the vortmax as far as the Mississippi River by 00Z. Various CAMs, the GFS and short range ensembles such as the HREF and REFS move the wave more quickly eastward, crossing the Mississippi river into Illinois around 18Z today. The timing and track of the MCV will be part of what determines convective trends this afternoon. The faster solution would limit afternoon convection mainly to areas along and east of I- 44 in Missouri and along and south of I-70 in Illinois. However the slower solution puts the entire area under threat of thunderstorms this afternoon. Since the model consensus is faster, am leaning in that direction with highest PoPs over east central and southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. Kept low chance PoPs over most of the remainder of the area keeping the slower RAP in mind. Models are showing 3000+ J/Kg CAPE with 30-35kts of deep layer shear which is good enough for storms to become organized into severe multicell clusters or even a severe MCS. Primary threat remains damaging winds in excess of 50kts. Boundary interactions along with a bit of extra directional shear associated with the MCV may be enough for a brief tornado as well. Additionally, there's enough CAPE in the hail-growth zone to support hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. The severe threat should diminish with weakening instability during the evening. The low level jet increases to 30-40kts tonight which will produce moderate to strong moisture convergence along any low level boundary laid down by earlier convection. This should result in more thunderstorms tonight, though precisely where the storms will develop will depend on where the low level boundary settles. Some guidance keeps it farther north closer to the I-70 corridor, while others are more across the Ozarks. Regardless, the low level jet veers overnight which should make the storms progressive along the boundary, but there will probably be more than one wave of thunderstorms that track along it. There is therefore a locally heavy rain threat, though widespread flooding doesn't look likely at this time as flash flood guidance is pretty universally well in excess of 2"/hr. Convective trends for Friday and Friday night are very dependent upon where the effective boundary ends up Friday morning, and on another convectively enhanced wave moving across Missouri into Illinois. There's a question of how unstable the atmosphere will get Friday afternoon into Friday evening depending on where the effective surface boundary is. However, severe wind gusts and hail will be possible again. Carney && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Models vary in how strong the aforementioned convectively enhanced short wave is as it moves from Missouri into Illinois late Fridaynight into Saturday morning. Some solutions show a strong wave which develops a closed low at the surface that drives a composite weak cold front and lingering convective boundary through Missouri Saturday morning. This would dry out the low levels and likely end the chance for thunderstorms. Others are weaker and allow the boundary to linger over the area through Saturday which would keep a chance for precip going longer. There's no particular reason to favor either solution at this point as it will depend on convective trends upstream over the Great Plains. Guidance continues to show a strong upper level ridge developing over the western U.S. late Saturday into Sunday which spreads east across the Plains and Midwest by early next week. Models continue to show some differences in the speed with which it builds east, and the ultimate strength of the ridge. However, the consensus continues to put the thermal ridge north of our area across the Upper Midwest. The NBM temperature forecast therefore looks pretty good with dry and warm, but not excessively warm weather next week. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Very light winds and a clear sky are expected for much of the night, but thunderstorms developing to the west over Kansas and western Missouri are expected to gradually push eastward Thursday morning. They'll be weakening to remnant showers as they arrive, leaving low confidence in any impacts in central Missouri or Quincy. However, as they move east toward the Mississippi River by afternoon, redevelopment is expected. This is more likely to affect the St Louis metro TAF sites, though confidence is only about 30 percent at this range. A few scattered thunderstorms may develop elsewhere Thursday afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in any other TAF. Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  758 FXUS61 KRLX 090905 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 505 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains on track and is consistent with the previous package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. 2) Drier weather coming for the beginning of the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. These upper waves mean that showers and thunderstorms become more likely outside of the favored afternoon and evening hours going forward. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for localized flash flooding. The biggest threat for flash flooding is expected Friday and Saturday. A Flash Flood Watch may eventually be needed. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will push southward Saturday into Sunday. The front will push south of the area for the beginning of the next work week, allowing for drier weather. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected to cause restrictions today. One round is currently ongoing early this morning, then another round can be expected in the afternoon and evening hours. Wind and clouds Thursday night could prevent fog formation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/09/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H L M L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L M L L H L M H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L H L L H M L H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M L L M M H H M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY  618 FXUS63 KTOP 090917 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 417 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening storms continue to move east across the area overnight, eventually pushing east of the area near or just after sunrise. - Low chance (10-15%) for isolated showers/storms to redevelop this afternoon with better chances (30-60%) coming overnight along/south of I-70. - Widely scattered showers/storms may linger through Friday, followed by drying conditions into the weekend. - Near average temperatures hold through the weekend, then gradually warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Zonal flow aloft dominates the Central Plains, and VAD wind profilers early this morning show a subtle perturbation moving through the MO River Valley. The LLJ feeding into the forecast area helped to maintain the leading cluster of storms as it moved from southern NE across northeast KS, producing sporadic marginal severe gusts and brief intense rainfall rates (2-2.5"/hr). The veering jet will continue to push these storms east with storms progged to exit the area entirely around sunrise or shortly after, though the strongest winds and heaviest rain are over at this point. For the rest of today, the first challenge will be how far south an outflow boundary will end up from these storms and whether or not it retreats north as an effective warm front this afternoon. If it does come back further north than anticipated, then temperatures could reach the low 90s as far north as I-70. However, a consensus would keep this boundary closer to I-35 or south. This is where a few isolated storms could develop late this afternoon as the inverted trough axis approaches and provides enough convergence for ascent. Inverted-V soundings suggest strong wind gusts would be possible with any of these storms that may develop. Greater chances for storms come late tonight, mainly after midnight with a line or cluster of storms coming from western KS. It remains uncertain how strong they might still be this far east and how much of the area would be impacted. The LLJ is displaced south with the main synoptic boundary south of the area by that time, but there could be enough elevated instability and shear to support marginal severe gusts with storms along the 850mb front. Instability still looks to decrease with time, leading to weakening storms through the night. CAMs are suggesting an MCV may be left behind Friday morning, leading to widely scattered showers and storms lingering in the area. Depending on how long these persist through the day, clouds and rain could keep temperatures cooler. The synoptic boundary looks to hang around just south of the area Friday into Saturday, and another weak perturbation aloft looks to trigger another round of scattered showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning. This would present a similar setup as tonight, but looks to be just far enough south to preclude a severe risk in our area. Once the front finally pushes far enough south to keep dry conditions in our entire area, upper ridging builds across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest early next week. This places us more in easterly flow, which should keep the thermal ridge north of us with slightly lower humidity levels here. So despite temperatures gradually warming through the 90s next week, heat indices may end up staying in the 90s as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Made some slight adjustments to timing of TS based on current trends, but outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected. Wind direction may vary at times through the period, but should generally stay under 10 kts and prevail from the SE behind storms before shifting to the NE behind the main synoptic boundary in the afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha  627 FXUS65 KVEF 090917 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 217 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday. High pressure will be the driving feature of regional weather over the next seven days. The center of the high remains parked over southern California and Arizona, keeping temperatures several degrees above-normal. Las Vegas has a 70 to 80 percent chance of reaching 110 degrees today and Saturday, which would be the first 110-degree day since August 21st, 2025. Hot daytime temperatures combined with warm overnight low temperatures will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for most locations. A combination of dry and breezy conditions also prompt elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region today and tomorrow. The high becomes centered over the Four Corners this weekend, a classic setup for monsoonal moisture advection into the southwestern United States. PWATs in excess of 1 inch spread into areas south and east of Interstate 15 on Sunday, spreading north into the rest of southern Nevada and southeastern California by Monday. Gusty outflow winds and dry lightning appear to be the primary threats for at least the first few days as forecast soundings display inverted-V patterns with moisture aloft and drier air near the surface. Orographic lift will favor storm formation over high terrain. The high stays put through midweek and ensembles show persistent healthy moisture advection. Lower heights aloft, cloud cover, and atmospheric moisture will help reduce temperatures by a few degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...SSW winds have remained elevated even after sunset in the 10-13 kt range with isolated higher gusts. Expect these conditions to persist for another hour or two before speeds finally drop to and below 10 kts for the rest of the night. Following a similar pattern on Thursday, winds shift to the SSE-S briefly mid-morning, then veer to the S-SSW during the afternoon with another round of gusts to 20-25KT expected thereafter. Hi-res guidance is picking up on a weak mid-upper disturbance moving through around 10/06z possibly resulting in a burst of stronger winds in the 06-11z timeframe. They have fairly consistent in showing this for a few runs, so have added gusts to 18kts toward the end of the TAF period late Thursday night into early Friday. VFR conditions with clear skies through the period. Expect temperatures at or above 100 degrees 17z - 03z with a high of 110 expected tomorrow. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Gusts have dropped off after sunset at most sites with KDAG being the exception as strong westerly winds persist through around midnight with gusts to 25 kts. Daily wind pattern expected again on Thursday with southerly afternoon wind gusts of 20-25 kts for most other locations while KDAG remains out of the WSW to WNW. Lower confidence at KBIH tomorrow as hi-res guidance continues to show northerly flow persisting well into the day with no switchover to a S direction. For now, keeping light northerly winds in the KBIH forecast through 21z, then transitioning to westerly by 00z as guidance suggests. Confidence is lower overall in the KBIH TAF due to the deviation from the normal diurnal wind pattern. High confidence in the forecast for all other sites. VFR conditions with no operationally significant cloud cover will continue. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Moore For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  657 FXUS65 KREV 090918 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 218 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds and low humidity will pose elevated fire weather and recreation concerns Friday and Saturday afternoons. * Increasing temperatures into the weekend will bring areas of moderate to locally major HeatRisk for Saturday. * A monsoon-type pattern may increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms next week. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure currently over southern CA/AZ is projected to migrate to the Four Corners region by Saturday. The weak low pressure trough that was located near the west coast since Tuesday retreats northward today before becoming re-established along the coast for Friday-Saturday. The resulting effect of this weather pattern will be a slight decrease in the PM breezes today, before returning to increased gusts beyond the typical Friday- Saturday (see the Fire Weather section below for more details). Meanwhile, a slow warming trend will resume, with above average temperatures peaking Saturday in the triple digits for many western NV valleys and near 90 for Sierra communities, resulting in Moderate to isolated Major HeatRisk for lower elevations on Saturday. While dry conditions are expected to prevail for the next three days, a few higher resolution guidance scenarios show increased cumulus buildups and isolated showers (up to 10% chance) forming in far northeast CA-northwest NV this afternoon. Later in the weekend through early-mid next week, the pattern begins to shift with flow aloft becoming more SW-S over the Sierra Sunday, with potential for deeper southerly flow at times from Monday-Wednesday. This would allow for monsoon-type moisture to push into the eastern Sierra and parts of western NV, with increasing instability leading to showers and t-storms mainly in the afternoon, but also could linger overnight. While the high pressure ridge is most likely to be centered over the central US with a low pressure trough near or just off the west coast, the eventual location of these features (along with upper level disturbances rotating around the ridge's western periphery) will determine the extent of the t-storm threat. In general, the most favored areas for storms extend from Mono-Mineral counties into the US-95 corridor of west central NV, with decreasing storm chances to the north and west. Temperatures begin a downward trend starting Sunday with highs dipping to near mid-July averages (lower-mid 90s for western NV valleys and lower 80s near the Sierra) for early next week. A warmup may return later next week, but confidence remains on the lower side with how much heat returns to the region as we get to the second half of July. MJD && .AVIATION... * Widespread VFR across the region through this weekend with SW-W gusts 20-25 kts for the main terminals (except a bit lighter for KTRK/KTVL) this afternoon mainly between 22-04Z, down slightly compared to yesterday. Winds edge upward Friday-Saturday, with afternoon gusts 25-30 kts for the main terminals. MJD && .FIRE WEATHER... * Continued dry afternoons will prevail into this weekend, with minimum RH values dipping to the single digits for much of western NV (down to near 5% at times along/east of US-95) and eastern Lassen County, with 10-15% for the eastern Sierra/Tahoe Basin and near the OR border. Overnight humidity recovery will be poor for much of western NV and some midslope/thermal belt regions, with maximum RH values only around 20-30%. * While winds today ease back a bit, SW-W flow increases over the Sierra Friday with 700 mb winds increasing to 25-30 kt. This would increase the potential for afternoon wind gusts pushing into the 30-35 mph range, producing elevated to locally critical conditions across parts of eastern Lassen/northern Washoe counties southward into the western NV Sierra Front. The duration of the gusty winds/low RH meeting critical levels still looks limited, but a few sites could see these conditions occur for more than 3 hours. * For Saturday afternoon, similar wind speeds return with the enhanced (25-30 kt) 700 mb flow shifting northward. This would result in areas near the OR border having the best potential for gusty winds/low RH meeting critical levels for 3 or more hours, while a shorter duration of these combined dry and gusty conditions extends southward to the western NV Sierra Front. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  746 FXPQ50 PGUM 090922 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 722 PM ChST Thu Jul 9 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Radar imagery late this afternoon shows lingering mid-level cloud cover decreasing over the coastal waters, and just a few isolated showers south and west of the islands. Tanapag buoy data and altimetry data show combined seas are roughly between 9 and 13 feet, mainly over the western coastal waters. && .Discussion... Quiet conditions with light to moderate winds prevail for tonight and Friday with a col area set up near the islands, roughly halfway between Typhoon Bavi to the west-northwest over the Philippine Sea, and Invest 97W, located south of Pohnpei. Models point to the next period of unsettled weather setting up as Invest 97W passes somewhere near or southwest of the area this weekend, after which its trailing monsoon tail will bring showers to the area through early next week. Latest model trends indicate that the monsoon pattern behind 97W may be a little more impactful than the disturbance itself, with locally heavy showers becoming more numerous on Monday and Tuesday, and gusty southwest winds beginning to develop around Monday night. As this disturbance is still rated "sub-low" and is not expected to develop in the next several days, uncertainy is still very high as to the exact timing and location of showers and gusty winds. For now, a headline was included in the zone forecast to highlight potential impacts through this time period, and wording for locally heavy showers possible was included from Sunday into midweek. && .Marine/Surf... Significant west to southwest swells continue to emanate from Typhoon Bavi (09W) and its trailing monsoon pattern, maintaining seas hazardous to small craft. Altimetry and Tanapag buoy data indicate combined seas sustaining over 10 feet across mainly western coastal waters of the Marianas, as seas take longer to relax below hazardous levels than previously expected. So, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Friday afternoon, after which decreasing seas may fall below hazardous levels of 10 feet. Additionally, hazardous surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue along north, south, and west facing reefs, due to these elevated distant swells and significant wrap-around effects along the northern and southern reefs of the Marianas. With this, the High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk have been extended through Friday afternoon. Early next week, southwest swell may see a resurgence across the Marianas as another southwest monsoon pattern looks to affect the area. && .Tropical Systems... Typhoon Bavi exited the Area of Responsibility as it was downgraded from a super typhoon to a typhoon. Winds of at least tropical storm force extend outwards from the center, into the Area of Responsibility, up to 280 nautical miles. For more information on Typhoon Bavi, please refer to the Public Advisory issued by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW. Invest 97W continues to be rated "sub-low" by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center this evening, meaning development into a significant tropical cyclone is not expected during the next several days. A weak, low-level circulation is observed on visible satellite imagery near 3N160E, drifting to the west. Scattered to numerous showers are observed in the vicinity of the invest with most of the coverage located along bands of convergence to the east and to the north. Pulses of shower and isolated thunderstorm development are expected to continue as it drifts to the west, before turning northward by this weekend. && .Eastern Micronesia... Satellite imagery shows mostlyisolated to scattered showers across eastern Micronesia with numerous showers located east of Pohnpei and south of Kosrae along bands of convergence. Shower coverage should be mostly scattered through Friday at both Kosrae and Pohnpei with shower coverage at Majuro topping out at low-end scattered. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible at all sites. For information on Invest 97W, please see the Tropical Systems section. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will persist into the weekend. Seas consist of a west-northwest swell and a small, southeast swell at Pohnpei and Kosrae. Seas at Majuro consist of an east swell and a small, south swell. Periods of moderate to fresh south winds will continue through Friday at Pohnpei and Kosrae before easing this weekend. Winds at Majuro will continue to be light to gentle through the weekend. && .Western Micronesia... A Small Craft Advisory and High Surf Advisory remain in effect for Yap and Palau. A Coastal Flood Advisory was re-issued for north facing reefs of Yap and Palau. For Yap and Palau, satellite imagery shows an outer rainband of Typhoon Bavi to the northwest of both islands, which may provide some showers to both islands later tonight. However, sea states remain the major forecast concern. Altimetry shows combined seas between 12 to 14 feet near Yap and Palau, and the Rumung buoy shows seas between 13 to 15 feet, which are generated by significant north-northwest to southwest swells associated with distant Typhoon Bavi and its trailing monsoon pattern. These factors are creating sea conditions hazardous to small craft, hazardous surf along west and north facing reefs, with a potential for coastal flooding up to a foot or so along north facing reefs. That being said, we are on a slow downward trend, meaning sea and surf conditions are gradually improving. Seas and surf are anticipated to fall below hazardous thresholds as early as Friday afternoon. A short lull in the weather is anticipated for Saturday into Sunday. Then, the convergence zone between a tropical disturbance near the equator and the trade winds is anticipated to bring showers back into the forecast for the beginning half of next week. For Chuuk, a gentle trade-wind regime is expected for the next few days. Seas are expected to be elevated but below the 10 foot threshold needed for an advisory. Around Sunday, weather conditions are expected to become fairly wet as a tropical disturbance is anticipated to pass nearby bringing widespread showers to the region for the beginning of next week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Friday for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Friday for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST Friday for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas: DeCou East Micronesia/Tropical Systems: Whisnant West Micronesia: Bowsher  897 FXUS61 KRLX 090927 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 527 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated chances of precipitation in southeast Ohio to better represent current radar coverage. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. 2) Drier weather coming for the beginning of the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. These upper waves mean that showers and thunderstorms become more likely outside of the favored afternoon and evening hours going forward. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for localized flash flooding. The biggest threat for flash flooding is expected Friday and Saturday. A Flash Flood Watch may eventually be needed. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will push southward Saturday into Sunday. The front will push south of the area for the beginning of the next work week, allowing for drier weather. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected to cause restrictions today. One round is currently ongoing early this morning, then another round can be expected in the afternoon and evening hours. Wind and clouds Thursday night could prevent fog formation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/09/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H L M L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L M L L H L M H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L H L L H M L H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M L L M M H H M M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY  181 FXUS66 KSGX 090933 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 233 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... The warming trend will continue today with high temperatures for Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. The flow across the area becomes southeasterly for Sunday into next week allowing for an influx of monsoonal moisture. For Sunday into the middle of next week, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms with the greater chances over the mountains and during the afternoon and early evening each day. Increasing humidity will result in warmer nights and higher HeatRisk by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... The warming trend will continue today with high temperatures for Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. There will be widespread major HeatRisk for the lower deserts today with widespread moderate HeatRisk for other inland areas. High temperatures for today will be around average near the coast to 5 to 10 degrees above average for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys. High temperatures for today will range from the 70s near the coast to the mid 90s to 104 for the Inland Empire with 113 to 117 for the lower deserts. Night and morning coastal low clouds will spread into the far western valleys at times into the weekend. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)... As the center of strong high pressure moves to the northeast, the flow across the area will become southeasterly allowing for an influx of monsoonal moisture for late Saturday into Sunday with growing spread by the middle of next week as to what degree that greater moisture persists. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning on Sunday with the greater chances over the mountains and during the afternoon and early evening each day. There will be warming of low temperatures with low temperatures mostly 5 to 10 degrees above average by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. For Wednesday and Thursday of next week, there could be low temperatures for the coast and valleys mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s and in the lower deserts in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Those warming low temperatures will result in higher HeatRisk for most areas with moderate or greater HeatRisk for most areas for Wednesday of next week except at higher elevations in the mountains and near the coast. There will be moderate to major HeatRisk for the lower deserts, the valleys, and inland Orange County. && .AVIATION... 090930Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 800-1200 ft MSL have filled in coverage up to 20 miles inland. VIS 2-6SM along elevated coastal terrain and around the I-15 corridor in SD County. Clouds scatter out 16-18Z. VFR through the evening. Low clouds with similar bases (and similar VIS reductions in BR) form along the coast after 03z Fri, patchy initially, then filling in coverage gradually after 07z up to 20 miles inland. .Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink  220 FXUS63 KMPX 090934 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 434 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated diurnal showers possible Friday. Otherwise the rest of the next 7 days looks dry. - Long duration, potentially significant heat wave moves in this weekend and continues through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 It has been a quiet night with the diffuse cold front that moved through Wednesday now down across northern Iowa and southern WI. You can also see drying and subsidence on water vapor. Though this looks like a good candidate for fog and stratus, we've hung on to a 3k to 6k foo cloud deck that has kept the fog from running wild this morning. All in all, this will be a very nice day, with skies clearing out and highs in the low 80s with dewpoints retreating to the upper 50s to mid 60s. As we go through the day today, a weak cold front will be moving across NoDak. Storms will likely fire along the front late in the day today, with a few showers/storm moving into northwest MN and possibly northwest sections of our forecast area out near Alexandria and Long Prairie late tonight. This diffuse boundary will continue east into MN on Friday, where it will start washing out. However, just enough convergence looks to be left over on this front, that when combined with daytime heating will be enough to spark some isolated showers and storms Friday afternoon, most likely in central MN. This is the one straw we have to grasp at for precipitation chances over the next 7 days. For this weekend, the well advertised and potentially record breaking h5 high begins building in. Those height rises Saturday and Sunday will squash any precipitation chances and begin sending thermometers up into the 90s. By Monday and Tuesday next week, even ensemble means show h5 heights exceeding 600dm in southern MN. In the STC/MPX upper air climate record (1948-present), the max observed h5 height is 598dm. The last time we got there was August of 2023 when the high was...98 degrees. So this will be a hot airmass that builds in next week, just how hot is still uncertain, especially as the h5 heights start to recede Wednesday. However, current soil moisture conditions are not bone dry thanks to recent frequent rains. In addition, we're now entering the peak evapotranspiration season for the corn crop (welcome to corn sweat season!). These two factors will likely make it tough to reach the heights of the top end ensemble members (highs of 100 to 105), but it will still be uncomfortably warm. As for when we'll see relief from the heat, both the GEFS and EPS mean highs for Wednesday-Friday have been trending warmer, so unless we can manage to work some convective complexes this far south mid-late next week (which looks hard to do given our capping and how far north the storm track recedes), which means we're probably looking at the weekend of the 18th and 19th before we start seeing some relief from the heat. See the climate section below for a cautionary note about all those 100s you see models (looking at you ECMWF) cranking out next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Satellite imagery shows some persistent lower-mid level cloud cover that has been hovering from 025-040 in an area from MSP to RWF and farther south, and there is little reason to not believe that it will persist into a good portion of the night. Guidance has backtracked on how aggressive the lowering of CIGS/VIS will be during the first 6-8 hours of the period, thus have went with a more conservative approach keeping most sites at VFR or high MVFR with the main exception being MKT. Winds will be light and variable overnight at or below 3kts, which should allow radiation fog when coupled with the rain seen today. We may end needing to chase some observations with AMDs as we see how the cloud cover affects the lower level fog. KMSP...Elected to keep things borderline MVFR/VFR after 09z as guidance was still relatively bullish on bringing at least some lowering VSBY this morning, however kept it to 3kft CIGS and 6sm. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 With the heat dome building in, we're seeing many a model and ensemble members throw 100s around for highs like it's no big deal. However, we're going to just put a word of caution about putting 100 in the forecast based on 100 degree climatology in the Twin Cities. The official Twin Cities climate record going back to 1871. In those 155 years, we have met or exceeded 100 degrees only 67 times, with only 6 of those coming since 2000. In the last 50 years multiple 100 degree days in a year has happened only twice, 1988 (4 days) and 2012 (2 days). With it's 00z run, the ECMWF cranked out highs of 99, 100, 101, 105, 103, and 100 for Monday through Saturday next. This would be something we have only observed once in 1936. Given how rare 100 degree days are, especially if you ignore what happened during the dust bowl in the 1930s (I really wonder how people survived summers in the 1930s without AC, the heat was absolutely brutal that decade!), we're skeptical about some of the high end forecasts (like that of the 00z ECMWF). With that said, we will likely see several days with highs above freezing, with this level of heat being dangerous for anyone that has to be out working in it. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...TDH CLIMATE...MPG  247 FXUS65 KTFX 090935 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 335 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning drier and much warmer through the weekend, with some record heat possible over the weekend. - Breezy conditions Saturday may result in some elevated fire conditions. - Not as hot next week, but still warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... While upper level flow will remain zonal/westerly over the next few days, expect generally drier and still warm conditions over the next 48 hours. The only exception to this may be a few isolated thunderstorms along the Continental Divide Friday as warmer air pushes into the area. Upper level ridging will build rapidly build late Friday and Saturday, which will cause temperatures to surge into the upper 90s to around 100F for most low elevation locations by Saturday afternoon, with many areas likely seeing 100F Sunday afternoon, though the exact temperature may depend on some incoming high clouds. Upper level flow will shift to more westerly on Monday, which will allow temperatures to lower a bit from the weekend highs, but most areas will still be quite warm with temperatures well into the 80s to low 90s. With this upper level flow pattern, expect generally dry conditions with just a few showers and thunderstorms to pop up in the afternoon. A passing upper level trough may bring some more widespread showers and storms on Wednesday, though timing of the trough passage will ultimately determine just how widespread and intense the storms will be. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Heat this weekend: Models have been in very good agreement in regards to very warm to hot temperatures across North Central and Southwestern Montana this weekend. While the NBM has begun to forecast some record heat (with even some all time records in jeopardy across Southwestern Montana), there remains a slight bit of uncertainty with regards to just how hot it will get. Most models seem to be hinting at some thin, high cirrus clouds streaming in. While at first glance this may sound like a likely failure mode, and it might be, thin cirrus clouds have a documented ability to provide a net greenhouse effect by allowing incoming infrared light to pass through, but keep outgoing infrared heat trapped below them. So given this interaction, I see no reason to deviate from the NBM’s rather warm forecast. I heavily debated whether or not to issue an Extreme Heat Watch, but given the potential for all time record highs in some locations, even if temperatures come in slightly cooler than expected it will still be hot enough for at least a Heat Advisory. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 09/00Z TAF Period Scattered thunderstorms will continue moving east across Southwest to Central Montana until 03Z this evening with some storms capable of producing severe gusts over 55 kts and hail up to 1". MVFR conditions can occur within precipitation otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the evening. A chance for MVFR/IFR conditions is still possible over North Central MT and KHVR due to mist/low stratus between 10-16Z Thursday morning but should not be as widespread as Wednesday morning as most low level moisture has eroded. - Akins && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 88 56 94 59 / 10 0 0 10 CTB 82 55 86 57 / 10 0 0 10 HLN 88 56 91 60 / 10 0 10 10 BZN 87 54 91 57 / 10 0 10 10 WYS 83 45 86 47 / 20 10 0 10 DLN 86 52 88 54 / 10 0 10 10 HVR 88 56 92 59 / 10 0 0 10 LWT 83 53 89 55 / 10 0 10 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Canyon Ferry Area-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gallatin Valley- Madison River Valley-Missouri Headwaters-Northern Blaine County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  389 FXUS63 KMPX 090938 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 438 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated diurnal showers possible Friday. Otherwise the rest of the next 7 days looks dry. - Long duration, potentially significant heat wave moves in this weekend and continues through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 It has been a quiet night with the diffuse cold front that moved through Wednesday now down across northern Iowa and southern WI. You can also see drying and subsidence on water vapor. Though this looks like a good candidate for fog and stratus, we've hung on to a 3k to 6k foo cloud deck that has kept the fog from running wild this morning. All in all, this will be a very nice day, with skies clearing out and highs in the low 80s with dewpoints retreating to the upper 50s to mid 60s. As we go through the day today, a weak cold front will be moving across NoDak. Storms will likely fire along the front late in the day today, with a few showers/storm moving into northwest MN and possibly northwest sections of our forecast area out near Alexandria and Long Prairie late tonight. This diffuse boundary will continue east into MN on Friday, where it will start washing out. However, just enough convergence looks to be left over on this front, that when combined with daytime heating will be enough to spark some isolated showers and storms Friday afternoon, most likely in central MN. This is the one straw we have to grasp at for precipitation chances over the next 7 days. For this weekend, the well advertised and potentially record breaking h5 high begins building in. Those height rises Saturday and Sunday will squash any precipitation chances and begin sending thermometers up into the 90s. By Monday and Tuesday next week, even ensemble means show h5 heights exceeding 600dm in southern MN. In the STC/MPX upper air climate record (1948-present), the max observed h5 height is 598dm. The last time we got there was August of 2023 when the high was...98 degrees. So this will be a hot airmass that builds in next week, just how hot is still uncertain, especially as the h5 heights start to recede Wednesday. However, current soil moisture conditions are not bone dry thanks to recent frequent rains. In addition, we're now entering the peak evapotranspiration season for the corn crop (welcome to corn sweat season!). These two factors will likely make it tough to reach the heights of the top end ensemble members (highs of 100 to 105), but it will still be uncomfortably warm. As for when we'll see relief from the heat, both the GEFS and EPS mean highs for Wednesday-Friday have been trending warmer, so unless we can manage to work some convective complexes this far south mid-late next week (which looks hard to do given our capping and how far north the storm track recedes), which means we're probably looking at the weekend of the 18th and 19th before we start seeing some relief from the heat. See the climate section below for a cautionary note about all those 100s you see models (looking at you ECMWF) cranking out next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Satellite imagery shows some persistent lower-mid level cloud cover that has been hovering from 025-040 in an area from MSP to RWF and farther south, and there is little reason to not believe that it will persist into a good portion of the night. Guidance has backtracked on how aggressive the lowering of CIGS/VIS will be during the first 6-8 hours of the period, thus have went with a more conservative approach keeping most sites at VFR or high MVFR with the main exception being MKT. Winds will be light and variable overnight at or below 3kts, which should allow radiation fog when coupled with the rain seen today. We may end needing to chase some observations with AMDs as we see how the cloud cover affects the lower level fog. KMSP...Elected to keep things borderline MVFR/VFR after 09z as guidance was still relatively bullish on bringing at least some lowering VSBY this morning, however kept it to 3kft CIGS and 6sm. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 With the heat dome building in, we're seeing many a model and ensemble members throw 100s around for highs like it's no big deal. However, we're going to just put a word of caution about putting 100 in the forecast based on 100 degree climatology in the Twin Cities. The official Twin Cities climate record going back to 1871. In those 155 years, we have met or exceeded 100 degrees only 67 times, with only 6 of those coming since 2000. In the last 50 years multiple 100 degree days in a year has happened only twice, 1988 (4 days) and 2012 (2 days). With it's 00z run, the ECMWF cranked out highs of 99, 100, 101, 105, 103, and 100 for Monday through Saturday next week. This would be something we have only observed once, in 1936. Given how rare 100 degree days are, especially if you ignore what happened during the dust bowl in the 1930s (I really wonder how people survived summers in the 1930s without AC, the heat was absolutely brutal that decade!), we're skeptical about some of the high end forecasts (like that of the 00z ECMWF). With that said, we will likely see several days with highs above freezing, with this level of heat being dangerous for anyone that has to be out working in it. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...TDH CLIMATE...MPG  385 FXUS63 KTOP 090938 CCA AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 417 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening storms continue to move east across the area overnight, eventually pushing east of the area near or just after sunrise. - Low chance (10-15%) for isolated showers/storms to redevelop this afternoon with better chances (30-60%) coming overnight along/south of I-70. - Widely scattered showers/storms may linger through Friday, followed by drying conditions into the weekend. - Near average temperatures hold through the weekend, then gradually warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Zonal flow aloft dominates the Central Plains, and VAD wind profilers early this morning show a subtle perturbation moving through the MO River Valley. The LLJ feeding into the forecast area helped to maintain the leading cluster of storms as it moved from southern NE across northeast KS, producing sporadic marginal severe gusts and brief intense rainfall rates (2-2.5"/hr). The veering jet will continue to push these storms east with storms progged to exit the area entirely around sunrise or shortly after, though the strongest winds and heaviest rain are over at this point. For the rest of today, the first challenge will be how far south an outflow boundary will end up from these storms and whether or not it retreats north as an effective warm front this afternoon. If it does come back further north than anticipated, then temperatures could reach the low 90s as far north as I-70. However, a consensus would keep this boundary closer to I-35 or south. This is where a few isolated storms could develop late this afternoon as the inverted trough axis approaches and provides enough convergence for ascent. Inverted-V soundings suggest strong wind gusts would be possible with any of these storms that may develop. Greater chances for storms come late tonight, mainly after midnight with a line or cluster of storms coming from western KS. It remains uncertain how strong they might still be this far east and how much of the area would be impacted. The LLJ is displaced south with the main synoptic boundary south of the area by that time, but there could be enough elevated instability and shear to support marginal severe gusts with storms along the 850mb front. Instability still looks to decrease with time, leading to weakening storms through the night. CAMs are suggesting an MCV may be left behind Friday morning, leading to widely scattered showers and storms lingering in the area. Depending on how long these persist through the day, clouds and rain could keep temperatures cooler. The synoptic boundary looks to hang around just south of the area Friday into Saturday, and another weak perturbation aloft looks to trigger another round of scattered showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning. This would present a similar setup as tonight with similar storm risks. Once the front finally pushes far enough south to keep dry conditions in our entire area, upper ridging builds across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest early next week. This places us more in easterly flow, which should keep the thermal ridge north of us with slightly lower humidity levels here. So despite temperatures gradually warming through the 90s next week, heat indices may end up staying in the 90s as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Made some slight adjustments to timing of TS based on current trends, but outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected. Wind direction may vary at times through the period, but should generally stay under 10 kts and prevail from the SE behind storms before shifting to the NE behind the main synoptic boundary in the afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha  408 FXUS66 KMFR 090939 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 239 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Typical summer weather for the remainder of the week: seasonable temperatures and humidities, gusty afternoon winds. * Pattern amplifies Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-35 mph) Friday- Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring heightened fire weather concerns (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * Thunderstorm pattern early next week. Best chances east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. && .DISCUSSION...Another quiet summer morning underway today. The marine layer is far less extensive this morning and only blankets the coast from Brookings southward. Skies are clear everywhere else. Westerly flow will prevail today under a mostly zonal flow pattern with flat high pressure to the south and a broad trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more stable air mass with thunderstorm potential remaining well east of the area. There will likely be some cumulus buildups today east of the Cascades and across northern California, but no showers are expected today. Generally cooler temperatures are expected into the weekend, so instead of temperatures being 8 to 10 degrees above normal like recent days, high temperatures through the weekend will hover within a few degrees of normal, equating to low 90s West/upper 80s East. The pattern transitions on Friday with high pressure to the south moving eastward into the Great Basin region, then amplifying on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward Friday into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly again and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tighter pressure gradients. This pattern will bring multiple days of strong, gusty winds to the region Friday through Sunday when gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 35 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions could be possible east of the Cascades Friday through Sunday, most widespread on Saturday. The parent low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, but a frontal boundary/energy gets left behind, maintaining tight pressure gradients. Guidance maintains another day of gusty winds (25-30 mph), and although humidities do tick upward some, it could still be another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough and the flow will turn more south to southwest heading into the early part of next week. This pattern will bear watching for thunderstorm potential as south to southwesterly flow could push some monsoonal moisture into the region. Much will depend on when/where shortwaves develop and at this juncture, it's too soon to try to pinpoint details. It's also challenging because our region will remain wedged between strong high pressure to the east and incoming troughs from the northwest. The proximity of those troughs could be enough to keep the flow more southwest or even westerly, and the more westerly the flow, the lower the chances for thunder, especially west of the Cascades. Until further details can be sussedout, it currently looks like the best chances for thunderstorms would be across eastern areas on Monday/Tuesday. We'll continue to monitor model trends to see if the eastward shift in the upper level pattern persists, or if thunderstorm chances shift westward. Stay tuned for updates as models hone in on additional details. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFs)... VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with the one exception along/near the coast. Low clouds are expected to develop late tonight from near Cape Blanco north (including KOTH) and from near Brookings southward. Guidance supports IFR conditions developing at North Bend (KOTH) beginning around 09-10z, with clearing around 15-16z. Gusty winds are expected again tomorrow afternoon and evening at area TAF sites. && .MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Thursday, July 9, 2026...A thermal trough will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas today. Hazardous warning level seas are expected south of Gold Beach and generally beyond 5 nm from shore and there could be a brief period of northerly gales in this area this afternoon. Conditions improve tonight into Friday as the thermal trough weakens and winds ease, but steep seas will continue for all areas south of Cape Blanco through Friday evening. Gusty north winds could return again for a brief period on Sunday, but in general, seas will be dominated by a fresh northwest swell this weekend and into early next week, with the thermal trough rebounding more fully during the latter half of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 200 AM Thursday, July 9, 2026... Seasonable temperatures and humidities are expected for the remainder of the week, with critical fire weather concerns increasing Friday and continuing through the weekend. The region will be wedged between strong high pressure to the east and an upper level trough off the eastern Pacific through the weekend, which will result in increased pressure gradients across the area. Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) are expected Friday through Sunday. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens on Friday, and when combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Modoc and southeastern Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 for Friday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this potential. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to peak on Saturday when humidities trend lower (low teens/single digits possible), winds increase some (25-35 mph common, possible up to 40 mph in the windiest locations) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. Regardless, critical fire weather conditions are again possible for Sunday as well, so additional watches/warnings will likely be needed through the weekend. A potential thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of next week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which could send monsoonal moisture into the region. Latest model guidance has shifted a bit on the overall pattern set up. The region will remain wedged between strong high pressure to the east and incoming troughs from the west/northwest. The proximity of those troughs could be enough to keep the flow more southwest or even westerly, and the more westerly the flow, the lower the chances for thunder, especially west of the Cascades. Until further details can be sussed out, it currently looks like the best chances for thunderstorms would be across eastern areas on Monday/Tuesday. We'll need to monitor the potential for any shortwaves/tropical activity that models try to develop and send our way early next week. On the other hand, however, if models continue this more eastward shift of the incoming troughs/southwest to west flow, we could potentially see an extended period of winds/RH concerns vs thunderstorms. Stay tuned as details become more clear with future model runs. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for ORZ624. CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  819 FXUS65 KBOI 090946 RRA AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 324 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry, with breezy afternoon winds through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week with the arrival of monsoon moisture. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/...A few degrees of cooling with northwest surface winds are expected today behind Wednesday's weak cold front. Hi-res models indicate storm activity this afternoon should remain south of the Idaho border and east of Banner Summit in central Idaho, but outflows up to 40 mph may travel into the SW Idaho Highlands this evening. Beginning Friday, high pressure across the Desert Southwest is forecast to build north into the N Rockies, introducing a rapid onset of heat as south-southwest flow develops over the forecast area. This flow will generate breezy southwest surface winds across much of SE Oregon and the mountains of SW Idaho Friday afternoon. Latest model guidance places lower valley temperatures around 100 degrees, with mountain valleys in the 80s/90s. Temperatures will remain hot on Saturday, with lower valleys peaking in the upper 90s to 105 degrees. Overnight/morning temperatures will also remain warmer than normal, reducing the opportunity for heat-relief and increasing Heat Risk across the Snake Plain and south to the NV border on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...Slight cooling is anticipated from west to east on Sunday as a Pacific trough approaches the PNW coast. Temperatures will still remain hot, however, as deep south-southwest flow persists from the ridge dominating to the east. Cloud coverage is forecast to increase Sunday and Monday as mid/high level monsoon moisture makes its way north into the region. Precipitable water values will begin to ramp up significantly by late Monday, reaching 1.00"+ by Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase through mid-week as the influx of moisture continues. While storms may initially be anemic and produce gusty outflows early in the week, storms will evolve into heavy rain producers if PWATs climb near/above 1.00". Max temps will hover at 5-10 degrees above normal through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1123 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026 VFR. Localized terrain obstruction from wildfire smoke. High density altitude due to heat. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts 20-25 kt from KMUO to KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Foothills may be obscured at times due to nearby wildfire smoke. Surface winds: W-N 5-15 kt. Afternoon gusts near 20 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR, except localized visibility reductions in the vicinity of wildfires. Isolated convection over central ID mtns Friday. High density altitude due to heat, esp Saturday. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt Friday through Sunday. Afternoon gusts to 20-30 kt mainly across E Oregon and the higher terrain of SW Idaho. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM....SH AVIATION.....SH  816 FXUS66 KPDT 090946 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 246 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and breezy conditions persist through week. - Elevated fire weather concerns through Saturday. - Warming trend expected next week, peaking Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and infrared satellite imagery shows dry conditions under clear skies. This is in response to a weak, transient ridge developing ahead of another weak shortwave that will dissipate over the region today. The incoming shortwave will increase winds through the afternoon across the Columbia Gorge and Kittitas Valley as west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of up to 35 mph are possible, peaking between 6-10 PM today. Zonal, upper level flow from the west will slightly drop high temperatures from Wednesday, but will still be a couple degrees above normal. The shortwave dissipating over the area is associated with an upper level low pressure system that has dropped from the Gulf of Alaska and will stall off the Central British Columbia coast near Graham and Moresby Islands later this afternoon. It continues its descent on Friday to Vancouver Island as an upper level high pressure off the southern California coast shifts toward the 4 corners region. These movements will allow flow aloft from the west to become southwest on Friday, bringing a slight warming trend across the area to wrap up the week. Winds will also increase slightly on Friday due to the incoming system along the coast, with west- northwest winds of 20-27 mph and gusts up to 40 mph through the Columbia Gorge, and Kittitas Valley. Elsewhere, winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are likely. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will keep elevated fire weather concerns across the Columbia Gorge, Lower Columbia Basin, and Kittitas Valley areas through the remainder of the week. Critical conditions will be related to humidities today, with afternoon values dropping into the low to mid-teens across the Columbia Basin and in the low teens to single digits across Central Oregon. Wind becomes more the issue on Friday as afternoon humidities rebound slightly, but increased afternoon winds will extend further into the Basin and Blue Mountain foothills as a result of a stronger pressure gradient between the approaching low pressure offshore and ridge to our southeast. The offshore system is able to tap into marginal subtropical moisture to alleviate afternoon humidity values, as winds stay more confined to the Columbia Gorge and eastern slopes of the Cascades. Currently, the more concern resides on Friday as more widespread breezy conditions are anticipated. The upper level low that stalls off the southern British Columbia coast will weaken late Saturday and slide over the high pressure ridge that traveled from the 4 corners area to the Dakotas on Sunday. Another low will drop along the British Columbia coast to take its place, coupled with remnants of a weak low pressure to its southwest in the Central Pacific. These features, along with the elongated upper level ridge spanning across CONUS, will lead to a warming trend that will peak on Tuesday. Guidance is in disagreement in how long the offshore upper level low will linger before riding up and over the CONUS ridge, which directly relates to how hot temperatures reach on Tuesday. Currently, 67% of ensemble members advertise highs at or above the current forecast, which relates to a stronger incoming low pressure system and staying offshore longer before riding up the CONUS ridge. High temperatures would reach into the mid-to upper 90s across the Lower Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain foothills with this solution. 75 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Breezy winds return this afternoon for KDLS/KPDT with sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts of 15-25kts. Elsewhere, winds should stay at or below 10kts. Widespread clear skies expected through early Friday morning. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather concerns for WA690, WA691, and OR691 are present through Saturday due to winds and low relative humidities. Critical humidities and winds are expected to stay isolated today, primarily over western OR691 and eastern WA690 between 1600-2000. Friday's concerns are more scattered across OR691 between 1400-2000, and may warrant a fire weather product during that timeframe. However, at this time confidence of Red Flag criteria being met is only 40-50%. This will have to be further analyzed over the next 24 hours. Elevated concerns over western portions of WA690, WA691, and OR691 materialize between 1600-2000 on Saturday, but look to stay isolated along the zone's borders. Fire weather concerns relax Sunday onward as light winds are expected, but dry conditions will still be present as afternoon humidities hover around 20-25%. 75 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 88 56 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 90 61 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 92 59 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 92 58 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 91 60 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 85 56 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 88 49 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 89 54 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 91 52 94 53 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 89 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...75 FIRE WEATHER...75  852 FXUS61 KCAR 090948 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 548 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Update for 12z aviation discussion. Models continue to indicate near surface smoke mixing down over the north this afternoon, with another surge on Friday. Confidence remains too low regarding visibility reductions so have opted not to include in forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wildfire smoke may be able to mix down to the surface over the north this afternoon through Friday. 2) Increasing heat and humidity with a chance of thunderstorms today and Friday. 3) Temperatures increase early next week before the next system approaches mid week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wildfire smoke may be able to mix down to the surface over the north this afternoon through Friday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A pre-frontal trough currently along the St. Lawrence will move through the region today. As it pushes south thru the area expect that there should be enough mixing to allow smoke to mix down to the surface over nrn Aroostook this afternoon, gradually spreading further south during the overnight hours based on the latest HRRR, RRFS and Canadian. The main cold front will move through tonight, allowing more smoke to mix toward the surface on Friday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity with a chance of thunderstorms today and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Accompanying the pre-frontal trough will be heat and humidity with showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Light showers will be moving across the north early this morning and with pre- frontal trough likely to be near central areas this afternoon, instability will be present along and south of the boundary. At this time it appears the best chance for storms will exist from the Central Highlands over into the Upper Penobscot Valley this afternoon and evening. This boundary will gradually wash out this evening with the main cold front dropping out of Canada tonight. Showers move over the area tonight ahead of the front with most of the thunder confined over Downeast early tonight with elevated instability present. Cannot rule out another opportunity for storms along the coast Friday afternoon but this will depend on timing of fropa. KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures increase early next week before the next system approaches mid week. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in behind the departing front this weekend, bringing seasonable temperatures and clear skies. A ridge begins to move into the area on Sunday, increasing temperatures for the first part of the week. Temperatures are expected to be about 5-10 degrees above average, though increased humidity is not expected. Another trough approaches mid week which could bring some precipitation starting in the north late Tuesday. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Today...Mainly VFR. Cannot rule out chance for -tsra at HUL and have included PROB30 from 18-22z this afternoon for potential. Thunder looks to be isolated at this time. SSW winds 5- 10kts, becoming WNW this afternoon. Tonight...VFR/MVFR in rain showers with very isolated -tsra at BGR this evening. Have included PROB30 from 00-03z at this time. Drop to IFR cigs at BGR and BHB after 05z. Light and variable winds. Friday...May see very brief IFR cigs at Downeast terminals early but quickly improving after sunrise, otherwise VFR/MVFR in showers and -tsra, especially BGR and BHB. NW winds 5-15kts. Friday Night-Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts, gusts to 20 kt. An afternoon sea breeze could produce S winds 5-10 kt at BHB. Saturday Night-Sunday...VFR. N-NW winds around 5kt. An afternoon sea breeze could produce S winds 5-10 kt at BHB. Sunday Night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Monday...VFR except possible MVFR in any showers/tstms at northern terminals late Monday. SW winds 5 to 10 kts. && .MARINE... Winds remain aob 25kts all waters through Friday. Seas remain below 5ft all waters before increasing to 5-6 feet from 25-60NM this evening through Friday morning. Seas then diminish to between 2-4 feet through Friday. Patchy fog may reduce visibility this morning and again late tonight. Winds/seas below SCA conditions this weekend and Monday with just some passing clouds. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/JMM AVIATION...21/JMM  949 FXUS62 KJAX 090952 CCA AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 552 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorms Today & Friday. Storm coverage increases this weekend and early next week. Locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday through Tuesday - Dangerous Heat Through the Weekend. Heat Advisory Today for All of Northeast FL and Southeast GA. - Moderate Rip Current Risk Beaches Today && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Heat Advisory Area-Wide Today - Isolated Afternoon and Evening Storms Another hot day ahead today as mid to upper level ridging continues to build. Mostly sunny skies and southwesterly winds will allow high temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s, with max heat index values in the 105-111 degree range, prompting a Heat Advisory from 11am-8pm. Forecast high temperatures today are just below previous record highs, see climate section below. Convective chances are lower today due to the subsidence and drier air in place, however CAMs continue indicate a window for isolated storms later this afternoon near Marion/Putnam/St. Johns/Flagler counties. An additional area of isolated convection is expected near the Altamaha river basin towards coastal southeast Georgia. Another night of mild temperatures forecast, lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential for Friday and Saturday - Lower convective chances Friday, but increased chance Saturday Low to mid level ridge over central FL on Friday will nudge further north into Saturday while moisture continues to remain somewhat limited in the 1000-700 mb layer. In fact, there will be pockets PWATs that will be near or below 1.6 inches on Friday. We do see some increase in moisture across northeast FL on Saturday so appears we will see an uptick in rain chances for Saturday, at least for northeast FL. At this time, will show rain chances limited to about 10-20 percent for Friday and 20-55 percent for Saturday, with highest chances over northeast FL, and lowest over interior southeast GA. There is possibility of higher POPs for Friday over inland northeast FL as shown by recent HREF and HRRR guidance. Steering flow through about 500 mb continues to be southwest to south on Friday. However, on Saturday, as the mean layer ridge drifts north, flow transitions to south, even southeast over northeast FL, but still weak southwesterly for southeast GA. The main concern continues to be dangerous heat risk both days. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast as southwesterly winds continue. Max temp may hit century max Afternoon heat indices will approach 102-110 degrees both days, Heat Advisories may be necessary for portions of northeast FL and the southeast GA. A couple of things that throw some uncertainty in the max temp forecast is that we may see more high clouds on Friday, and overall more clouds on Saturday with a better chance of precip. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Unsettled weather develops by Sunday Afternoon Onward - Not as hot Monday to Wednesday The low to mid level ridge axis will shift back south Saturday into Sunday while flow turns more westerly and a frontal boundary slowly sags southward over the southeast. Pre-frontal troughing is possible across srn GA on Sunday, with the frontal boundary probably pushing into southeast GA by then or at least by Monday night. More abundant moisture pushes into the area on Sunday and continues Monday and Tuesday while ridging pushes well to the south over southern FL. The front looks ill-defined by Wednesday as preliminary data suggests it will be diffuse over south GA. Unsettled weather each day with rain likely chances (at 55-70 percent) Sunday, maybe up to 60-80 percent Monday. Likely rain chances continues Tuesday and Wednesday. There some concern for locally heavy rainfall, localized flooding Sunday through Tuesday though the recent dry weather should help to minimize some of the impacts. By Sunday, temperatures drop a few degrees area-wide as more storms are expected. Higher cloud coverage and storm chances will lower temperatures back to near normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday to Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions continue through the overnight hours other than typical MVFR fog at VQQ from around 07-11Z. SW flow develops again Thursday morning, with the sea breeze impacting SSI and SGJ in the afternoon. Showers and storms look to be limited to SGJ and SSI Thursday afternoon into the evening. Have placed VCTS for SGJ but with lower confidence near SSI, have left VCSH for now. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a southwest flow through early afternoon followed by late afternoon and evening wind surges from the south to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters through Friday, with increased chances of thunderstorms Saturday through early next week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents continues through the end of the week due to fairly low surf conditions from prevailing offshore flow. Some enhanced potential still looks likely for the northern beaches by late afternoon from Mayport northward due to stronger southeast wind component each day. Surf remains generally in the 1-2 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Areas of high dispersion near and to the north of i-10 from today through Saturday. - Heat advisory in effect today. High pressure ridge will prevail just south of the area through Saturday. Drier than normal conditions are forecast today through Friday and then rain chances begin to increase Saturday through early next week as a front approaches from the north. Above average temperatures and dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values expected through Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Friday, with areas of high afternoon dispersion near and north of I-10 expected each day. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above critical values. Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected through Friday night. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows. && .CLIMATE... Summer heat continues. There is potential for some locations to get to the century mark today with probability of this occurrence at about 30 to 40 percent. These probabilities look a bit higher for Friday. For the next few days, here are the record high temperatures that are within 3 degrees of the current forecast: July 9th: KJAX: 101/1879 KGNV: 99/1932 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 101/2016 July 10th: KJAX: 102/1879 KGNV: 99/1914 KAMG: 99/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 July 11th: KGNV: 100/1900 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/1998 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 77 97 76 / 10 0 0 10 SSI 97 80 97 80 /10 0 10 0 JAX 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 97 78 96 78 / 10 0 10 0 GNV 97 75 97 76 / 0 0 10 10 OCF 97 76 97 77 / 0 0 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. MARINE...None. && $$  962 FXUS63 KFGF 090953 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 453 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 2 out of 5 risk Tlate afternoon and evening today for the Devils Lake area and a level 1 out of 5 risk tonight into the northern Red River valley. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms. - Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 SPC Day 1 outlook issued around 06z didnt change the slight or marginal risk area. Looks like scattered severe storms will form in an axis of 3000 to 4000 j/kg MUCAPE in north central ND into southwest Manitoba mid to late afternoon. Location of development may be affected by how far east this early morning t-storms moving in from Saskatchewan and northeast Montana make it. Brief severe period as after 03z the MUCAPE values drop significantly and 0-6 km bulk shear is modest (25-30 kts) any low level jet is quite weak as well, 850 mb winds 20-25 kts. Heat impacts and messaging remain for this weekend into early next week with focus on highest heat impacts Sunday and Monday. UPDATE Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Surface high pressure centered in southern MB will extend its influence into our area, calming winds, and helping clear skies. This may help areas of fog develop within the region. Latest high resolution guidance keeps coverage on the lower end, but does highlight areas within the Red River Valley as well as into northwest Minnesota. Should fog develop, timeframe generally resides 4 AM to 8 AM. Fog may be dense within the Red River Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Synopsis... Zonal flow across the northern CONUS today will gradually give way to more meridional flow by this weekend as ridging builds across the Rockies and Plains. Clusters then depict a couple stronger waves riding along the periphery of the ridge in Interior Canada. This could have impacts reaching some of the local thresholds for Heat Advisories or even an Extreme Heat Warning this weekend so the impact of these waves in the placement and amplitude of the ridge will certainly be something to watch. Along with these waves comes chances for some scattered rain though no drought busters. The main rain chance to be aware of looks to be Thursday evening/overnight mainly across our eastern North Dakota counties with chance for some strong to severe activity. - Thursday Severe Risk Amid mostly zonal to slightly NW flow will come a shortwave tomorrow with a developing low level jet in the evening ahead the pacific trough. As moisture surges north in central North Dakota with dewpoints nearing 70 potentially there will be no shortage CAPE with upwards of 3000-4000 MUCAPE and enough shear along clockwise curved hodographs for initially robust supercell structures. Capable of golf ball sized hail and potentially a few tornadoes though a later initiation time may shunt the tornado threat (an earlier storm start time may yield a higher threat.) Regardless as storms work east into our forecast area and namely the Devils Lake Basin around 7-9pm they should transition to a more elevated mode and the surface begins to cool with the cessation of daytime heating and hazards will evolve to primarily hail and an increasing wind threat storms likely congeal into one or more lines/bowing segments. Hazards for our area are hail to 1.75" and winds to 60mph. - Heat Impacts For this weekend as heat builds there is high confidence in much of eastern North Dakota seeing air temperatures cresting 90 degrees as early as Saturday and lasting through at least Monday when highs fall back into the 80s for the middle of next week. During this stretch the 25-75th percentile spreadon potential high temperatures is a reasonable 5-8 degrees meaning while temps could end up slightly warmer or cooler than currently being forecast it is unlikely highs will only be in the lower 80s rather than lower 90s. Along with the warm temps will be heat indices near to above 100 Saturday through Monday. With this heat headlines look to be in order with Sunday being the hottest day of the stretch. Will wait until tomorrow at the earliest to issue any headlines for Saturday but it will be a proper July scorcher of a weekend regardless of any products being issued. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Other than a chance for fog within the Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota, high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Window for fog potential generally between 09Z-13Z, of which confidence is generally high enough of this potential to include at KFAR, but is liable to occur at KGFK as well. High pressure into the area will keep winds light and variable through the overnight and morning, and even into the afternoon with the exception of KDVL where winds increase to around 10kt out of the south after 16Z. Daytime cumulus after 15Z Friday is forecast to be rooted around 4-6kft again for the afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/Riddle DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...CJ  990 FXUS62 KGSP 090955 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 555 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion was updated for the 12Z TAFs. Removed mountain valley fog and low stratus from the forecast as hardly any developed overnight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday before much cooler and possibly below normal highs for mid-July return Sunday into Tuesday as cold air damming develops behind a cold front. 2. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be mostly confined to western North Carolina again today before better coverage of diurnal activity returns Friday. A cold front brings even better shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend into Monday before drier conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Hot and humid east of the mountains through Saturday before much cooler and possibly below normal highs for mid-July return Sunday into Tuesday as cold air damming develops behind a cold front. Bermuda high keeps hot and humid conditions around east of the mountains through Saturday. Although highs east of the mountains will rebound into the low to mid 90s today and tomorrow, dewpoints should mix out enough each afternoon allowing heat indices to remain below Heat Advisory criteria (<105 degrees). Highs will be cooler Saturday as the Bermuda High gets nudged southward by a cold front approaching from the north. However, afternoon temps east of the mountains will still climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices ranging mostly from the lower to upper 90s. The good news is that breezy SW winds will return each day bringing some relief from the hot and humid conditions. A cold front will bring much needed relief from the heat starting Sunday. The front should push south of the GSP forecast area by daybreak Monday. Behind the front, cold air damming will gradually develop as surface high pressure centers itself over the Northeast. Cold air damming looks to be strongest on Monday and could linger through Tuesday. This will allow below normal highs to return late this weekend into early next week, with Monday potentially seeing highs drop down to 5-10 degrees below normal. Highs appear to mostly range from the lower to mid 80s east of the mountains each day. Unfortunately the break from the summer heat will be brief, as highs east of the mountains on Wednesday and Thursday will climb back into the low to mid 90s as an upper ridge builds over the central and eastern US. By Thursday we should see highs return to around 5 degrees above normal for mid-July. Key message 2: Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be mostly confined to western North Carolina again today before better coverage of diurnal activity returns Friday. A cold front brings even better shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend into Monday before drier conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday. Diurnal convection returns today, mainly across western North Carolina again. However, 00Z CAMs do show the potential for some isolated convection to develop across northeast Georgia and the South Carolina Upstate. The severe weather threat will remain very low today like we saw yesterday. However, a few strong, sub-severe storms are possible during peak heating hours. Convective coverage increases slightly on Friday and with CAMs showing the potential for more organized convection to develop, the severe threat will increase a bit compared to today. The main hazard with any severe storms that develop the next two days will be damaging wind gusts. A cold front will approach out of the north Saturday into early Sunday before tracking across the forecast area late Sunday into early Monday morning. This front will bring even better coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially Sunday into Monday. Confidence on any severe weather developing with this front remains low, especially Sunday into Monday with cold air damming expected to develop. With mainly diurnal convection likely to develop again Saturday (as the front remains well to the north), a low-end isolated severe threat will continue with damaging winds being the main hazard with any severe storms that manage to develop. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through most of the 12Z TAF period outside of scattered TSRA this afternoon/early evening. Stratus/fog did not develop overnight so removed restrictions at KAVL. The NC terminals will once again have the best potential to see TSRA develop this afternoon/early evening so maintained with PROB30s at KCLT, KAVL, and KHKY. Although 00Z high-res guidance shows the potential for a few isolated TSRA to develop across the SC terminals, confidence is too low on whether this activity will track directly over KGSP, KGMU, or KAND. Thus, maintained dry conditions at the SC terminals for now. Winds at KAVL will be mostly NW/WNW while east of the mountains will be mostly W/WSW through the period. Breezy winds will return again today, mainly east of the mountains, with gusts ranging from mostly 18-22 kts. Gusts will diminish around or just after 00Z Friday. Confidence on mountain valley fog formation tonight into daybreak Friday is low as it did not develop this morning. Outlook: Better coverage of SHRA/TSRA returns for all terminals Friday into Monday. Drier conditions should develop Tuesday into Wednesday. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in locations that see appreciable rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ AR  991 FXUS64 KSHV 090955 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 455 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Elevated afternoon dew points together with highs in the low to middle 90s will result in heat indices above 105 degrees for portions of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from noon through 8 PM. - Quiet and dry weather will continue through the end of the week, with areawide highs in the low to middle 90s. - Showers and storms are expected to return this weekend north and east, likely to continue into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 After a prolonged unsettled and challenging pattern lately, the ArkLaTex looks to remain dry and quiet today and through the end of this work week. Without rain cooling effects, areawide heat will prevail as highs take aim at the lower to middle 90s. Guidance has lately underestimated dew points across our northwestern quadrant, and accounting for recent patterns, these seasonal temperatures will result in heat indices of 105 degrees or greater for several hours this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for the impacted counties from noon through 8 PM today. Precautions should be taken to limit outdoor exposure, stay hydrated, and have access to air conditioning. As this week draws to a close, the ArkLaTex will see little in the way of upper level steering in the wake of this week's trough, while upper level ridging amplifies to our west. Friday looks to remain mostly dry across the region, though some afternoon sea breeze driven convection may just barely manage to make it into our southernmost zones. Otherwise, expect more highs in the middle 90s, and another round of lows in the middle to upper 70s. By early Saturday into Sunday, ridging over the western CONUS will amplify, forming a closed high over the Four Corners region. Recent solutions are suggesting that as this ridge amplifies, an emerging trough over the Midwest will be tilted as it gradually stalls over the Appalachians. The westward extend of latitudinal amplification of this trough will determine ArkLaTex weather this weekend and into early next week. The latest consensus indicates that the trough will provide forcing upon which moisture impulses will develop and result in an unsettled pattern for the weekend and into early next week, with areawide rainfall chances at times, and the most likely repeated impacts across our northern and eastern zones. At this point, highs in the 90s look to remain entrenched in place, with the only potential exception being upper 80s in southern Arkansas with repeated rainfall and cloud cover. Lows will continue in the 70s throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions prevailing just before sunrise this morning and those conditions should continue through the daytime hours and overnight tonight as well. Just some thin cirrus being observed across the eastern half of our airspace, remnants of late night convection across SC/SE AR. Should see developing cu field through the day across our airspace but we shouldn't have to deal with much if any convection unlike previous days. Stronger low level pressure gradient in place today which should result in SSE to SSW winds sustained near 10kts areawide with some stronger gusts possible across our NE TX terminals. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 96 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 96 77 96 78 / 0 0 00 DEQ 95 75 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 97 77 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 95 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 97 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 96 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 96 76 95 77 / 0 0 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059-070. LA...None. OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...13