306 FXUS65 KSLC 091001 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 400 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1104 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... - Another round of isolated thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of I-80 tomorrow over the higher terrain, capable of producing strong outflow winds over 50 mph. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening Thursday over portions of southern Utah. - The most significant heat wave thus far this season will develop over the weekend with high temperatures challenging daily and monthly records Saturday and Sunday. Most valleys and some mountain valleys have a greater than 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red (Major) range, bringing an increased chance of heat-related illnesses. - Confidence is increasing the monsoonal moisture will move into the area by the middle of the upcoming week, though details of which days have a higher chance of flash flooding have yet to come into focus. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1104 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... A slightly drier air mass will begin to make its way into the area tomorrow under southwest flow aloft, with the most notable drying over southern Utah. With lingering moisture over northern Utah and another subtle shortwave trough on track to move through during the afternoon, anticipate the development of at least a few showers and thunderstorms, though coverage will likely be a bit less than recent days. As the airmass continues to dry and strong high pressure builds substantially over the western United States, confidence is high in temperatures across Utah and southwest Wyoming shooting up to record challenging levels for Saturday and Sunday. Guidance continues to show the center of the ridge over Utah on Saturday and just east of the area on Sunday. Guidance has, if anything, gone up with regard to the forecast compared to yesterday, with the majority of valleys and mountain valleys showing at least a 60 percent chance of red (major) HeatRisk for both Saturday and Sunday. It seems all but certain that daily temperature records will be broken, with some monthly and (in the case of the Cache Valley) all time records forecast to be broken. Given this and many valley low temperatures staying in the 70s overnight, this will predictably bring a quite increased chance of heat related illnesses over the weekend. Given the high confidence in the forecast, have gone ahead and issued an Extreme Heat Watch for all of those areas with at least a 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red, which includes just about all valleys (lower Washington county excluded) and many mountain valleys. As the forecast comes in clearer focus over the next couple of days, upcoming shifts will make decisions about advisories and warnings. With southerly flow expected to increase over the area for the early and middle part of the upcoming week, models continue to indicate a high likelihood of monsoonal moisture returning to the area, bringing temperatures down and rain chances up. While this would decrease the fire danger, it brings an increased potential for flash flooding, particularly for southern Utah. The ECMWF ensemble probability of >1" of precipitable water, for example, indicates a 60-80% of that magnitude of moisture sitting over the entire Great Basin for a week or more starting next Tuesday. Details of which days have the best chance of flash flooding have yet to be ironed out, as that will likely involve timing of weak shortwave impulses (if any), which cannot be ascertained this far out in time. && .AVIATION, Issued 1104 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... KSLC...Scattered showers are forecast to persist at the KSLC terminal through 09z before drying out. Another round of thunderstorms may occur during the hours of 21-02z tomorrow, though confidence remains uncertain at this time regarding coverage. Northwest wind shift is expected to occur around 17z with drainage southerlies returning around 04z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers with occasional thunder will persist through around 09z across northern UT and southwest WY before drying out. Generally diurnal wind shifts are expected across all sites through the TAF period. Additionally, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists across most northern UT and southwest WY sites tomorrow afternoon from roughly 20-02z. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air will continue to spread into the area through the rest of the week under a west to southwesterly flow aloft. Humidities will trend downward across the area and overnight recoveries will become increasingly poor, especially across central and southern Utah. Showers and thunderstorms across portions of northern and central Utah today and tomorrow will become more isolated in nature, although gusty outflow winds will continue to be a threat. Additionally, breezy conditions will combine with low humidities once again to create critical fire weather conditions today, mainly across southern Utah, with at least a localized threat continuing into tomorrow. As high pressure builds back into the area for the weekend into the beginning of next week, dry and very hot conditions can be expected. Temperatures are very likely to reach at least 100 degrees in most valleys over the weekend, while relative humidities in the single digits will be common. However, the pattern still looks favorable for moisture to increase into the area beginning early next week as the high pressure shifts east of the area. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ101>108-114>116-118>122-128>131. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ495-496-498. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Van Cleave AVIATION...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Cheng For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  532 FXUS66 KHNX 091003 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 303 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .UPDATE...Updated for 12Z Aviation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir and Lake Isabella through 11 PM PDT Thursday, July 9. Beware of unsettled waters. 2. Slow but steady warmup this week, with widespread Moderate Heat Risk by the weekend and isolated areas of Major Heat Risk. 3. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will create elevated fire risk, particularly in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties. 4. Increased chance for Sierra Nevada thunderstorms late this weekend into next week with monsoonal moisture pushing into our region. 5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure sliding westward over southern and central California from the Four Corners region is contributing to a gradual warming trend that will become more evident in the late week and weekend. Thursday brings a 40 to 50 percent probability for maximum temperatures to exceed 100 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley, especially for the southern and western areas. However, as the high continues to build, these probabilities jump to 80 to 90 percent for the valley areas on Friday and Saturday. For the remainder of the region, temperatures will be around five degrees above season averages going into the weekend. A tighter pressure gradient on the north side of the high will result in gustier conditions especially for the areas in the lee of area mountain ranges and the typical wind prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella, and the Mojave Desert Slopes. Lake Wind Advisories remain in effect for the lake areas listed until 11 PM Thursday. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are expected for San Luis Reservoir and west winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph for Lake Isabella. A drying trend will coincide with the triple-digit heat, with minimum relative humidity on Thursday expected between 12 and 20 percent for the San Joaquin Valley, and between 5 and 10 percent for the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County Desert. These low humidity values will slowly improve through the next few days before a dramatic increase due to monsoonal moisture pushing into the region from the southeast. Between Sunday and Monday, the aforementioned high pressure system will slide eastward over the Great Basin, prompting the upper level flow to shift to the southeast. This will bring warm, moist air to the region, maintaining temperatures in the low 100s for the lower elevations, but resulting in chances for showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Ensemble guidance from the National Blend of Models expresses a 50 to 60 percent probability for at least one-tenth of an inch over 24 hours ending 5 AM Tuesday for the Sierra between Fresno and Tulare Counties. There is also a 20 to 30 percent probability for thunderstorms across this area each day Monday through at least Wednesday as there is little deviation in the synoptic pattern through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Rising temperatures into this weekend will create drier conditions across the region, with minimum relative humidity values at 12 to 20 percent across the San Joaquin Valley and between 5 and 10 percent for the Sierra Nevada and Kern County Desert Thursday. A gradual improvement will occur over the following days, but largely remain within 5 percent of Thursday's minimums. Stronger wind gusts approaching 40 mph in the Mojave Desert Slopes will cause elevated fire weather conditions when combined with the low RH values. In the late weekend, an influx of monsoonal moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra Nevada, with chances currently sitting at 20 to 30 percent each day beginning Monday. Outside of the mountain areas, temperatures will remain above 100 degrees as flow tracks into the region from the southeast. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ300-332. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy/BSO weather.gov/hanford  724 FXUS61 KPHI 091007 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 607 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flood Watch was issued for southeast Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, and portions of South Jersey. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. A Flood Watch was issued for southeast PA, northern DE, and portions of South Jersey. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. A Flood Watch was issued for southeast PA, northern DE, and portions of South Jersey. High pressure moves offshore this morning with return flow setting up behind the departing high, and southerly flow strengthening through the day. Dew points will climb into the low to mid 70s. Although temperatures will "only" be in the mid 80s or so, which is right around normal for this time of the year, the heat index will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. The main concern on will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Low pressure approaches from the west and tracks towards the Mid- Atlantic by this evening A mid-level trough will move into the Northeast with some shortwave energy passing through the Delaware Valley, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey. SBCAPE values will be in excess of 1500 J/kg with PWATS from 2-2.5 inches, highest values from the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, south into Delmarva. 0-6 km shear will be from 25 to 30 kt. The two main threats from severe weather will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. Given the high PWATs and potential for some periods of training, have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch for southeast PA, northern Delaware, and portions of South Jersey from noon until Midnight. Some areas within the Flood Watch also saw a good amount of rain lately and while we are still in a drought, the soils may be overwhelmed if some training were to occur over a certain area. Rainfall rates of 1-2" are likely witin the Flood Watch area. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, the eastern shores of Maryland, and Delaware, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) for the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. Ended up leaving the rest of Delmarva out of the Watch because of the more rural nature of the landscape and ability to take more rainfall than urban areas. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather (2 out of 5) for the Delaware Valley south of Philadelphia, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) from around Philadelphia north to Allentown. No changes were made this morning to the Severe Weather Outlook. Although some showers and thunderstorms will fire up over far western portions of the forecast area from noon-2pm, the main timing will be from 3PM to 9 PM across the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. While showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and localized flash flooding are likely for the northern zones as well, the highest impacts in terms of potential severe weather and flash flooding should be focused generally south of Philadelphia. A warm and muggy night with patchy fog developing Thursday night after showers and thunderstorms come to an end by midnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of a cold front moving southward into the area. Similarly to Thursday, moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front, where PWAT values are progged to be in excess of 1.8 inches. This supports that any given shower or storm will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As of now, the majority of our forecast area is highlighted in an MARGINAL risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. Held off on expanding the Flood Watch through Friday due to uncertainty in where the heaviest rainfall will set up today. In terms of the severe weather threat, ML CAPES are expected to reach at least 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values around 30 kt. Given better frontal forcing, there looks to be at least another opportunity for severe weather. As of now, SPC has our entire area highlighted in just a general thunder risk, however some of the MLP guidance indicate higher probabilities especially in terms of damaging winds. It is also worth noting that Friday will be quite sticky outside with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. This will result in heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. We may get close to Heat Advisory criteria in some spots, but basis the current forecast, heat indicies are expected to remain just below advisory criteria. There remains a vast amount of uncertainty with how Saturday will pan out as guidance continues to struggle with how quickly the cold front clears the area. Some guidance slows the progression of the front, keeping more in the way of showers around on Saturday, whereas others show a faster progression, yielding mainly dry weather. As mentioned by the previous shift, opted to stay very close to NBM PoPs for this period, which keeps 10-30% PoPs north, with 30-60% PoPs mainly across south Jersey and the Delmarva. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s. By Sunday and into early next week, guidance is showing an expansive upper level ridge setting up over the northern High Plains. This will yield dry weather and mainly clear skies across the Mid- Atlantic. Temperatures will be around normal for Sunday and Monday, but will swing back above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...MVFR conditions expected as some stratus moves through the area this morning. Expecting stratus to lift by the afternoon before some scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to develop in the afternoon and early evening. Coverage of showers/thunderstorms will be focused mainly from KRDG/KTTN on south. Have maintained TEMPO TSRA groups at all terminals except KABE as a period of thunderstorms are increasingly likely (60-70%) sometime between 18z-00z. Winds generally out of the south/southwest around 10 kt with higher gusts anticipated in any thunderstorms. Moderate confidence overall. Tonight...Primarily VFR as showers and thunderstorms move offshore. Cannot rule out some patchy fog, especially over areas that see rainfall. Winds out of the west/southwest around 5 kt or less. Low confidence. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Primarily VFR but sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%) in the afternoon and evening with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Primarily VFR though cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm developing. Saturday Night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected through Friday. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt expected with seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms possible (40-60%) on the waters both Thursday afternoon and evening and Friday afternoon and evening. Outlook... Friday Night through Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated. Sunday through Sunday Night...SCA conditions possible (20-30%) as seas near 5 feet. Monday...No marine headlines expected. Rip Currents... For today, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomes more southeasterly. Southerly flow will be a bit stronger (winds 10 to 20 MPH) and wave heights a bit higher for the Ocean and Monmouth County beaches. This will result in a MODERATE risk for rip currents at these locales. Lower winds and wave heights for the southern Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches will result in a LOW risk for rip currents. For Friday, winds turn southwesterly, and the swell weakens. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for PAZ060-070-071-101>104-106. NJ...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for NJZ016>019. DE...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich AVIATION...Hoeflich MARINE...Hoeflich  958 FXUS65 KFGZ 091010 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 310 AM MST Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...For most, mainly hot and dry conditions are expected through the end of this week. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue over the White Mountain region Thursday and Friday. Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up over this weekend and into next week, with storm activity pushing back west and north and becoming more frequent. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and then Glen Canyon through at least Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...Changes in steering flow and the influx of drier boundary layer air over the northern and western zones will lead to fairly quiet and hot conditions over the next 2 or 3 days. These changes are bring driven by a westward relocation and flattening of the ridge that is currently underway. Higher moisture values persist over western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, meaning the White Mountains will not be fully overcome by these changes and convection will continue in this area. Most other locations will not see any convection for Thursday and Friday, perhaps even Saturday. Over the weekend and into next week, the ridge recenters to our northeast and strengthens dramatically. This will open the door for the moisture pool that is already in place and Monsoon 2026 will begin in earnest by Sunday or Monday. Due to the strength of this ridge, any location that does not see rainfall or enhanced cloud cover will still be quite warm, even for this time of year. EHW products for the Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon will persist through at least Saturday as a result. This is not to say that other lower elevation locations will not be uncomfortable at times, but overnight recovery and less potential for outdoor activity will temper the need for additional products. By early next week, the aforementioned Monsoon 2026 should keep most locations at least 5-10 degrees cooler, likely eliminating the need for heat products. && .AVIATION...Thursday 09/06Z through Friday 10/06Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA and areas of gusty outflow winds through around 08Z in eastern Arizona with otherwise dry conditions overnight. Brief MVFR and gusty/erratic winds possible in ISOLD SHRA/TSRA 18Z Thursday into the early evening, from the White Mtns region up to KINW and KSJN. Winds SW-W 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts after 18Z Thursday through early evening. OUTLOOK...Friday 10/06Z through Sunday 12/06Z...Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD storms possible around the White Mtns Friday, spreading NW to around KFLG by Saturday afternoon. Winds SW-W 10-20 kts Friday and 5-15 kts Saturday. Light and VRB or terrain driven wind during the overnight periods. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Most areas will be hot and dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over the White Mountain region each afternoon, but convection outside of east-central Arizona is unlikely. Saturday through Monday...Remaining hot, with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday, then pushing west and north and becoming more frequent Sunday and Monday. Wetting rains are likely from convection by Sunday and Monday. Generally light and variable winds Saturday, remaining light, 5 to 15 mph, but trending southerly for Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM MST Saturday until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ005. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006 below 4000 feet. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  447 FXUS61 KGYX 091015 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 615 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 610 AM Update...The convection allowing models have shown varying coverages of thunderstorms this afternoon, but mainly in the central and northern zones. Highest PoPs continue to be in the north but did add some chancy PoPs elsewhere for this afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Heat and humidity returns today. It is only expected to last through Friday before temperatures return to more seasonable readings. 2. As a cold front approaches the region showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours today and Friday. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with strong wind gusts the most likely hazard. 3. Mostly dry with seasonable temperatures this weekend with a warming trend possible during the early to middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Deep southwesterly flow will draw and heat and humidity back north today. There has not been much change in modeling since the last update, with guidance still favoring 850 mb temps in the +16 to +18C range. This is supportive of upper 80s to near 90 high temps. Southwesterly downsloping may allow the Merrimack Valley to tack on a couple extra degrees. Couple that with the humidity and apparent temps will be in the mid 60s from ASH/MHT eastward to the Seacoast. The Heat Advisory area looks good for now. Encroaching cloud cover will limit the northward extent of the heat. This will be even more true of Fri. Mid level temps will get knocked back a degree or two, and as a result high temps will be more like the mid to upper 80s. Especially with the dewpoints remaining high, it will will still feel pretty steamy, but I do not anticipate the need for an additional Heat Advisory at this time. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible thru Fri as the front slowly crosses the region. The thermodynamic environment will be fairly marginal, with weaker lapse rates aloft. However we will attempt to make up for that with the high heat and humidity south of the front. Bulk shear today should be at least on the order of 25 kt, and so any storm that does get going may stay organized. Largely unidirectional winds and drying aloft will support gusty to damaging wind as the primary hazard. At this time SPC only has a small portion of Coos County in the marginal risk for severe storms, but I could see that getting expanded south and eastward. Similarly on Fri the threat will push farther south as the front continues to sag into the area. Overall the forecast soundings Fri have more moisture, so we can add torrential rainfall as another hazard. Once again marginal CAPE and shear profile will support isolated strong to severe storms. Wind remains the primary storm hazard. On both days various machine learning convective guidance indicates marginal risk of severe weather. So I could see the new Day 2 severe weather outlook including a marginal risk in the, or at the very least the need to be prepared for stronger storms Fri afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Surface high pressure will build over New England this weekend, allowing for warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions. A few diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out though, especially on Saturday as an H5 s/wv trof slides across the region. A long wave H5 ridge axis will gradually move east for the early to middle part of next week. Warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected on Monday and Tuesday before an approaching frontal boundary and H5 s/wv trof moves towards the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, possibly resulting in showers and thunderstorms. The timing of this trof and front will play a large role in temperatures as well as the timing of greatest rain chances for the middle to latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions continue through this afternoon with LEB and HIE possible seeing localized IFR conditions after midnight as valley fog develops again tonight. This is more or less a persistence based forecast with a slight delay in timing due to drier conditions. Any valley fog that forms should clear out quickly after sunrise with the prevailing condition turning back to VFR. Some TEMPO MVFR is possible in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but confidence is too low to add to TAFs at this time. As the front gets closer there will be a growing threat for marine fog and stratus, especially towards Fri morning. Outlook: Friday: VFR conditions expected to prevail over most of the area. IFR or lower possible in fog/stratus over the Midcoast. Local MVFR or lower possible in showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon across the southern half of the area. Saturday-Sunday Night: Mainly VFR conditions expected. TEMPO restrictions are possible Saturday PM within possible SHRA/-TSRA. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Areas of fog likely begin to develop tonight and continue thru Fri until the front crosses the waters. Some strong thunderstorms are possible Fri afternoon over the nearshore waters. Outlook: A brief period of SCA conditions are possible Monday evening outside of the bays with S wind gusts up to 25 kts and seas of 3-5 ft. Otherwise, winds and seas will largely remain below SCA criteria through early next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ012-013. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ekster/Legro/Tubbs AVIATION...Legro/Tubbs MARINE...Legro/Tubbs  469 FXUS66 KLOX 091015 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 315 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...09/310 AM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge of high pressure over the region. Temperatures will decrease slightly over the weekend as the ridge moves away from the region, but some heat impacts will continue. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting Sunday. Temperatures will begin to build once again on Tuesday, potentially reaching Major Heat Risk levels, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/310 AM. An upper level 595 dam high is situated just to the SW of LA. It will remain stationary for through Friday morning and then begin to slowly drift to the ENE. Hgts over Srn CA during the 3 day period will be between 594 and 595 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal for this time of year. This morning there will be about 2mb of onshore flow to the east and about 2mb of offshore flow from the north. Onshore trends over the next three days will result in mdt to stg onshore flow both to the east and north by Saturday. There will only be minimal low clouds this morning concentrated across the Central Coast, the Paso Robles area and the KLGB-KLAX cstl area. The increase in onshore flow will bring more low clouds to the csts Friday morning. The stronger onshore flow will bring plenty of low clouds to the csts on Saturday morning and locally into the lower vlys. Skies Saturday will be partly cloudy after the low clouds dissipate as mid and high level clouds rotate into the area around the upper high. High temperatures continue to be the main concern through the forecast period. Today will be the warmest day with the above normal hgts and the weakest onshore flow. Most max temps will be about a degree warmer than ydy's very warm readings. The exception today will be the Central Coast which due to the weaker onshore flow will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming. Vly temps today will range from 88 to 102 degrees or 4 to 8 degrees above normal. The increasing marine layer and onshore flow will bring some cooling to the csts and vlys each day Fri and Sat while the mtns and interior will see little change. Heat advisories continue over many areas (humidities will be on rise and this increase will mitigate the cooler temps) please see the product LAXNPWLOX for details. Advisory level Sundowner winds are once again likely this evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue for this area as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/310 AM. The upper high will continue to drift to the NE and will end up over South Dakota by Monday where it will stay through most of next week. Srn CA will end up on the western periphery of the high and SE flow will set up and persist over the area. Hgts will not change much day to day and will be near 593 dam. At the sfc there will be gradual weakening of the onshore flow will the possibility of offshore flow developing from the north Tuesday or more likely Wednesday. The SE flow will bring monsoon moisture into the area with partly to mostly cloudy skies due to mid and high level clouds likely Sunday and Monday. There will also be enough onshore flow to bring low clouds to the csts and lower vlys each morning. PWAT quickly increase overnight Saturday and persist into Monday. The moisture will be low enough to bring a 10-20 percent chc of showers and isold TSTMs to VTA and LA counties. The best chc each day will be in the afternoons and early evenings over the mtns esp the eastern LA mtns. The increase in humidities will keep the heat index high enough to continue the low end heat advisories for most areas away fromthe csts. The monsoon will likely cut off on Tuesday and skies will be much clearer for Tue and Wed. The amount of marine layer clouds will shrink as the offshore trends take affect. The copious sunshine and weaker onshore flow will add up to two days of warming. The current forecast call for 3 to 6 degrees on Tue and 1 to 3 degrees on Wed. If, however, the offshore develops as some ensemble members indicate then max temps would end up much higher and an extreme heat watch is in effect to cover this possibility which stands at about 30 percent right now. && .AVIATION...09/1014Z. At 0825Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2300 ft deep with a temperature of 27 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 30 percent chc of VLIFR conds 10Z-15Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z. Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLGB and KLAX. VFR transition could be off by +/- 90 minutes and cigs off by 300 ft. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no cigs. Good confidence that VFR conds will arrive between 1630Z and 1830Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 6kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...09/314 AM. For the outer waters, current Gale Warnings look on track ending Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will follow, lasting through at least Friday morning. Large 10-12 ft seas will subside Friday, but current SCA may need to be extended into Friday night due to winds and seas. SCA level NW-W winds, with local gusts near gale force are expected for the inner waters along the Central Coast until Thursday morning. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning. Local SCA level wind gusts are also possible for far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning. For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory now in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT this morning for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Phillips SYNOPSIS...RM/KL/SR weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  574 FXUS64 KSJT 091018 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 518 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and dry conditions return for today though Friday with afternoon highs near or above the 100 degree mark. - Low to medium (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions today. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid 90s to around 102. Please follow heat safety precautions if you plan to be outside. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 High pressure across the region will begin to shift north towards the northern end of the Great Plains. This will leave us on the southern end of the high pressure ridge. The long range models continue to show embedded disturbances in the flow aloft on the southern end of the ridge. This will support scattered thunderstorm development across our region in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. Chances are currently medium (about 50%) for rainfall during this time period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The winds will be from the south and gusting to around 20 knots this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 98 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 98 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 96 73 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 98 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 100 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 95 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...21  621 FXUS61 KBGM 091021 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 621 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm and humid conditions expected today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this morning over northeast Pennsylvania followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into tonight across the area. 2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday as a frontal boundary moves through the region, with localized flash flooding possible. 3) After seasonal temperatures this weekend, heat builds into the area through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Southwesterly flow returns today as a trough begins digging into the Great Lakes. This will advect a warm and humid air mass into the region, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, with dew points rising into the mid 60s (CNY) to low 70s (NEPA). While it will feel noticeable muggy, conditions are not expected to be oppressive enough to warrant any heat headlines. As the morning progresses, the approaching trough will bring two separate features capable of generating precipitation across portions of the area. The first is a shortwave moving into the Mid-Atlantic this morning, which will support scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of NEPA. Most of the heavier rainfall is expected to remains to our south, though showers and storms may brush parts of the Wyoming Valley and into the Southern Catskills from late morning through the afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weak instability and shear across the area during this time, keeping any convection that develops elevated and relatively weak. Attention then turns to a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest later this afternoon and evening. This feature will support a broader area of convection that will progress from northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours. The greatest potential from strong to isolated severe storms will be across the northern portion of the forecast area. With bulk shear values of 25 to 35 knots and MUCAPE around 1000-1500J/KG, a few storms may be capable of producing damaging winds. In addition, isolated flash flooding will be possible. Sounding profiles remain favorable for efficient rainfall production, with long and skinny CAPE profiles, PWATs between 1.5 and 2 inches, warm cloud depths near 12K feet and MBE vectors of just 5 to 10 knots. These parameters support slow moving or back building convection capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. This threat appears greatest from late afternoon through the overnight hours. KEY MESSAGE 2... The frontal boundary is expected to push through the area Thursday night into Friday morning, though the exact timing remains somewhat uncertain. Some guidance favors a quicker passage during the early overnight hours, while other solutions delay the front until late overnight or early Friday morning before slowing it near the NY/PA border through late morning and early afternoon. Should the slower solution verify, a shortwave lifting east from western PA would support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Twin Tiers and spreading into the Poconos during the afternoon and evening hours. The presence of a slow moving frontal boundary near the NY/PA border combined with the enhanced lift associated with the shortwave and a warm, moisture rich air mass could support multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the same locations, further increasing the potential for isolated flash flooding. Given this setup, the area remains within a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Key Message 3... A broad area of high pressure is expected to become established over the central US early next week, with an upper level ridge expanding eastward into the region. This pattern favors a return to very warm conditions, with model guidance indicating 850 mb temperatures rising into the +16 C to +20 C range. As a result, widespread mid 80s to lower 90s are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Attention then turns to a trough attempting to dig into the Northeast later next week, which could bring a return to cooler temperatures. However confidence remains low regarding how successful this trough will be in suppressing the ridge and delivering meaningful cooling to the region. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR is expected through the TAF period for all terminals until tonight. A cold front sinking down from the north will bring a blanket of MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings to the area. Additionally, this front may trigger some storms, mainly for KRME and KSYR. Confidence in timing is low/medium, so it was included as a PROB30 group around 19/20z. Outlook: Friday...Cold front could moves in, with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Restrictions possible. Saturday into Monday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ES/JTC AVIATION...KL  680 FXUS63 KMKX 091023 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 523 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are expected at times into this evening. Gusty winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall are possible in any stronger storms. - Hot and muggy conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 523 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Weak 925 mb frontogenesis near the slow-moving cold front, along with weak low level warm air advection continues to bring scattered showers and a few storms through the area early this morning. This activity should continue at times today into this evening, as the cold front slowly sags southward through the area. CAMs are generally showing a peak in this activity from middle afternoon into early this evening, with the better chances toward the Wisconsin and Illinois border area. Forecast soundings are showing 1000 to 1500 J/kg of mean layer CAPE this afternoon, with around 20 knots of deep layer bulk shear. This should support gusty winds and small hail with any stronger storms this afternoon and early evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, with precipitable water values remaining relatively high this morning into this afternoon and fairly slow movement of any showers and storms. Stay weather aware into this evening if you have any outdoor plans. This activity should weaken by later this evening and overnight, with some fog possible as northeast winds behind the front bring in some moisture off of Lake Michigan. Patchy dense fog may occur later tonight into Friday morning, with the better chances closer to Lake Michigan. Wood && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Tonight through Thursday Isolated showers and storms are possible tonight into early Thursday as instability and plenty of moisture linger while a shortwave moves through. Models have backed off on overall precip coverage for tonight, so bumped precip chances down to the 20-40 percent range. Clouds and dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 will keep temps from falling much more the remainder of the night. Could see some redevelopment of storms by Thursday afternoon as a surface trough drops through southern Wisconsin. Still wouldn't be surprised by a stronger storm or two producing some small hail and gusty winds during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with any slow moving stronger storms. Went with high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s tomorrow given the surface trough dropping through, plenty of clouds, and shower/storm chances. It will be a humid day again, with dewpoints lingering around 70. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Friday through Wednesday: Mainly dry weather is likely from Friday into early next week as an upper ridge builds in and surface high pressure largely sits over the region. Not out of the question to see a few storms sneak over the top of the ridge into southern Wisconsin as the ridge moves in late this week and begins to flatten by mid-week next week. Overall though, dry weather should prevail much of the time along with increasing temperatures this weekend into early next week. Highs around 90 are possible Monday through Wednesday. Dewpoints will in the mid 60s to around 70 will be a little lower than the last stretch of 90+ degree temps, which should keep heat afternoon heat indices from reaching the 100 degree mark. Currently expecting the heat index to top out in the 90-95 degree range Mon-Wed. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 523 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and a few storms should continue to move through the area at times today into this evening, as the weakcold front slowly sags southward through the area. A peak in this activity from middle afternoon into early this evening looks reasonable, with the better chances fro terminals toward the Wisconsin and Illinois border area. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with any stronger storms this afternoon and early evening. Locally reduced ceiling and visibility values may occur with any storms. Some lower ceilings from 800 to 1800 feet AGL may move through northern portions of the area this morning, perhaps including the Sheboygan and Madison terminals. These should rise to above 3500 feet AGL this afternoon. This activity should weaken by later this evening and overnight, with some 1 to 5 mile visibility fog possible as northeast winds behind the front bring in some moisture off of Lake Michigan. Patchy dense fog may occur later tonight into Friday morning, with the better chances for terminals closer to Lake Michigan. Low ceilings of 1000 to 1500 feet AGL, perhaps lower, may occur as well for the terminals near the lakeshore later tonight into Friday morning. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 523 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light south winds will become north to northeast behind a cold front moving southward across the lake today into tonight. Some fog may develop at times during this period, with patchy dense fog possible into Friday morning, as warm air remains over the cooler lake waters. Winds will remain north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.0 inches builds into the the region from the north. The high should shift southeast over the weekend, which should continue to bring light to modest winds. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  650 FXUS65 KTWC 091022 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 322 AM MST Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and Friday, with the potential for an increase in storm coverage over the weekend. Hot temperatures continue today and Friday before cooling off this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed debris clouds over across eastern half of forecast area, which will slowly diminish through sunrise. Satellite derived PWATs were between 1" and 1.40". Last nights upper air plots placed the monsoon high west of nrn Baja with SE AZ on eastern flank of this high. For today, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with main threats being strong gusty outflow winds, blowing dust and localized flash flooding. HREF has 10%+ neighborhood probability (25 miles) of 50 kts for areas mainly E and S/SW of Tucson. SPC has most of the eastern half of the forecast area under marginal risk for severe wind gusts. Some of the stronger cells will also be capable of localized heavy rain with rain rates up to 1"/hr leading to localized flash flooding. The main areas of concern for this will be Santa Cruz county and SW Cochise county. WPC has this area under marginal risk for flash flooding. Of interest tonight will be how active will Sonora MX get and will the thunderstorm outflows be strong enough when hitting the GlfofCA to initiate a gulf surge. Friday: The monsoon high will lift into western Arizona keeping the area on the eastern flank of the high. Storms, some severe, will mostly be E and S of Tucson with HREF having 10-30% neighborhood probabilities (25 miles) of 50 kts. Localized heavy rain and flash flooding will be also concern. This weekend: With the monsoon high lifting into the northern Rockies/Plains a more favorable monsoon flow pattern sets up resulting in an increase in PWATs (1.2"-1.6") and flash flooding/severe thunderstorm risks. WPC has our area painted for Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Outlook this weekend. Monday through Wednesday: Favorable monsoon flow will continue daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with flash flooding and severe thunderstorms a daily risk. Temperatures: One more day of the Extreme Heat Warning then temperatures gradually cool to near normal-ish Sunday into next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 10/12Z. SCT clouds 8k-11k ft AGL slowly diminishing thru 09/15z, then redeveloping aft 09/18z, bcmg SCT-BKN aft 09/23z with ISOLD to SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA mainly E and S of KTUS. There is the potential for outflow winds up to 45 kts btwn 09/21z and 10/03Z. Outside of any thunderstorm outflows, SFC wind less than 12 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Above normal high temperatures (4-7 degrees) through Thursday, with highs lowering to around normal over the upcoming weekend. Min RH values in the lower elevations in the 13-20 percent range through Friday, increasing 5-10 percent by late in the weekend into early next week. Outside of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20- foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph into early next week. There will be a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon/evening hours through Friday. There is the potential for increasing thunderstorm chances and coverage this weekend into early next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501- 502-504>506-509. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  737 FXUS63 KIND 091025 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 625 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible, mainly this evening into tonight, with damaging winds and heavy rain/localized flooding the primary threats - Additional rain possible at times Friday through the weekend with localized flooding possible - Warmer and drier again next week, though with more modest humidity than experienced the first week of the month && .DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 TODAY AND TONIGHT - Aside from some patchy fog in the outlying and favored areas in the light winds and high humidity airmass, expect generally quiet weather this morning, with thunderstorm chances ramping up through the day as the airmass destabilizes and a convectively enhanced upper level disturbance approaches the area. CAMs in general are depicting the evolution of one or more clusters of storms into a linear structure late in the day into the overnight hours tonight, with primarily a concern for a few damaging wind gusts. Deep layer shear is modest but sufficient, and may be enhanced slightly beyond what guidance depicts by the aforementioned MCV. Diurnal timing is not ideal though moderately strong instability should remain in place into the overnight hours - approaching and possibly exceeding MUCAPE values of 2000 J/kg. Seasonably high wet-bulb zero values will limit hail threat to primarily small hail in the stronger cores absent any more discrete convection, which appears unlikely, and while a brief QLCS spin-up cannot be ruled out, damaging winds in a seasonable setting of a cold-pool driven MCS will be the primary concern. Despite precipitable water values approaching 2 inches, well in excess of the climatological 90th percentile, the (mostly) progressive CAM solutions do give some optimism that despite undeniable heavy rain potential, hydrologic threat should be relatively limited with today and tonight's convection, though mesoscale reorientation of the low level environment in the form of boundaries and the larger scale low to mid level flow will always be a concern in such setups, and the slight risk for excessive rainfall day one is certainly reasonable. Overall, current expectation is for a broken line of storms to possibly move into central Indiana during the evening hours, perhaps just prior to nightfall, and push through the area to the east/southeast - with southwestern portions of the area the most likely area for both severe and hydrologic concerns. FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY - Another upper level wave will move slowly through the region Friday into Saturday, though models differ in their handling and intensity of the disturbance. A continued moist airmass will promote at least moderate destabilization, and one or more clusters of storms will be possible Friday into Friday night and perhaps on Saturday as well, though the threat will lessen and shift southward with time, and be focused primarily along remnant boundaries from previous convection, lessening the predictability as time goes on. An isolated strong to severe threat cannot be entirely ruled out, though hydro concerns will likely be slightly more pressing as the area has been decently wet in recent weeks, and the aforementioned plentiful moisture combined with what may be fairly slow storm motions outside of more organized clusters could present a localized flash flood threat - WPC excessive rainfall outlooks outline this well. NEXT WEEK - The predominant story next week will be a reassertion of summertime heat as a brief pseudo-Rex block pattern forms with the western CONUS ridge sliding back eastward atop weak upper level low pressure to our south, gradually reconnecting with the Bermuda high over the southeast. Temperatures will climb back towards the 90 degree mark in spots, though with slightly more reasonable dewpoints than the first week of the month, keeping max apparent temperatures still toasty but far more manageable in the low to mid 90s. The high pressure aloft and at the surface will keep the area dry for the most part, though airmass thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out near peak heating many days. That said, these are quite low predictability days ahead of time and will not merit mentionable PoPs on most days. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 624 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Impacts: - MVFR, TEMPO IFR fog in the first hour or so - Showers and storms possible at all sites this evening into the overnight Discussion: As expected, fog has formed at the outlying sites, with visibilities fluctuating between MVFR and IFR. Conditions should be steadily improving shortly after valid time, with VFR returning around 13Z in typical diurnal fashion. Once fog mixes out, VFR conditions will remain throughout the majority of the period, the possible exception being this evening when showers and storms are possible at the sites. Will carry VCSH for now with a PROB30 group for thunder at all sites. Winds will be calm to light and variable early, becoming southwesterly (200-230 degrees) during the day, with a few gusts into the mid teens range possible at most sites. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ AVIATION...Nield DISCUSSION...Nield  961 FXUS64 KLIX 091030 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 518 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Through the end of the workweek, very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. - Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle. - Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The region remains under generally more active southwesterly flow aloft on the western periphery of the ridge over the southwest Atlantic and northeast Gulf. With the weakness over the Mid MS River Valley the higher POPs will be across that region. However, we certainly will not be rain free during peak heating this afternoon. PWATs around 2.0" or so will assist in efficient rainfall rates...so localized flooding will remain possible. Outside of hydro related impacts, DCAPE values are also supportive of gusty winds in the stronger thunderstorm activity. Going into tonight any convection will refocus offshore. Friday looks to be similar in terms of POPs with little changes noted in the overall pattern. However, the area going into the upcoming weekend will be a bit on the wetter side with a stronger QPF signal within the globals with a few H5 impulses/vorts pushing through the region. Temperatures through the short term will remain at or slightly above average with a slight decrease in afternoon highs with the gradually increasing rain chances. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper ridging will be centered over the Dakotas and Wyoming Sunday evening, with a weaker ridge near the Bahamas. In between, will be a weakness or trough that will be centered near Interstate 40 Sunday evening, just south of Interstate 20 Monday evening, and be near the Louisiana coast Tuesday evening. The upper ridge will eventually head southeast later next week and to Georgia or the Carolinas by next weekend, but that's well beyond the scope of this forecast package. As the trough approaches from the north, precipitable water values near the 75th percentile Sunday afternoon (1.9 inches) will increase to the 90th percentile (2.1 inches) Monday afternoon. This is somewhat of a slower progression than we were looking at 24 hours ago. Additionally, the trough never really gets off the coast, so any mid level drying looks somewhat less likely to occur, with both the Euro and GFS ensembles holding precipitable water values at least near the 75th percentile. The forecast solutions from the operational global models would signal a wetter (and not as hot) period for Sunday through at least Tuesday, and probably Wednesday. If forecast soundings from the GFS are any indication, convective temperatures for Monday and Tuesday may only be in the middle 80s, which would mean an earlier start to thunderstorm development (before noon) and high temperatures remaining below 90 degrees for several days. Rainfall amounts in a cumulative sense could be fairly significant in the Sunday to Wednesday period, with WPC forecasts currently indicating 3 to 5 inches of rain in that period, with the more favored portion being the southern half of the area. We'll have to see how those trends play out over the next few days. (RW) && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle...outside of convection. Speaking of convection, covered the afternoon showers/storms with PROBs mainly from 18z-00z. In and around convection expect reduced VIS/CIGs as well as erratic and gusty winds. As for winds, outside of convection a light southerly wind can be expected. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mostly onshore flow as southerly winds are forecast through the upcoming weekend. Mostly favorable marine conditions expected outside of the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. Locally, winds and seas may increase in and around convection and waterspouts will also be possible. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF  043 FXUS62 KMHX 091033 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 633 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the northern coastal waters starting this evening and ending early Friday morning. Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dangerous heat and humidity persists across ENC into this weekend. 2) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms later this weekend into early next week as instability builds across ENC. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Previously mentioned stalled frontal boundary is beginning to lift north this morning with some isolated showers and a rumble of thunder or two possible across the northern zones and OBX going into daybreak. Not expecting anything strong with this morning activity as anything that develops will be elevated in nature. As the front lifts north, light but steady S'rly flow is forecast to develop across ENC with temps remaining steady or gradually climbing into daybreak. As we get into today, expect another hot day across ENC, though slightly less humid. Expecting highs to get into the mid to upper 90s across inland zones and low 90s along the coast and OBX. Dewpoints will remain in the 70s generally east of Hwy 17 as we mix rather efficiently across the NW'rn Coastal Plain allowing for dewpoints in the 60s here. Overall this will result in heat indices reaching 105-110F across Duplin County NE'wards to Dare County with heat indices closer to 95-104 to the north and west of these zones. As a result have kept the previously issued Heat Advisory in place with just the far NW'rn counties not in a heat advisory today. Drier conditions expected today and Friday with WSW flow aloft limited upper level forcing but could see isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours each day. Have kept SChc PoPs in the forecast today to account for this low end threat. SW flow will bring increasing low level thicknesses, warming temperatures, and a High Heat Risk across the region on Friday with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s for coastal areas south of Oregon Inlet. Heat Indices are expected to climb to around 100-110 once again Fri afternoon generally in the same areas that are seeing heat advisories today so another heat advisory for Fri across portions of ENC can't be completely ruled out. There is some uncertainty with the dewpoint forecast Fri afternoon, especially inland, as some guidance brings deeper mixing allowing dewpoints to drop well into the 60s inland from the coast, which could keep heat indices from reaching advisory criteria. Temps have trended down slightly for Saturday with most of the area remaining in a Moderate Heat Risk. KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper level trough/mid level shortwave and surface front approaching from the north and west this weekend will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday across ENC. Latest trends is for the front to approach our northern zones Saturday evening and push through the area Sun morning. This would act to bring best precip chances to ENC Sat afternoon and overnight with chances then waning through the day Sun from north to south. While instability has trended down, generally ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE Sat and 750-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE Sun, with greater upper level support and deep layer shear values closer to 25-30 kts this weekend across ENC, could see a few stronger storms this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Will continue to see a mix of patchy fog and low stratus across portions of the Coastal Plain over the next 1-2 hours with a mix of MVFR/LIFR conditions currently noted across ISO/PGV and adjacent areas as of this update. Leftover fog/stratus quickly dissipates around 12/13Z today with VFR conditions then forecast for Thursday and Thurs night. There will be an isolated chance at some storms Thurs afternoon with the sea breeze. SW winds will gust around 20 kt Thurs afternoon before easing Thurs night. Outlook (Friday through Monday): Mainly iso to widely sct activity expected Friday with a lower threat for sub-VFR conditions. However, as we get into the weekend as an upper level trough and associated surface front approaches increasing chances for showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions will be noted. Could see improving conditions on Monday. && .MARINE... Not much change in the forecast since the previous update as a stalled frontal boundary located across the area has begun to lift N'wards this morning. A few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across our waters this morning but this activity should quickly exit the region by mid morning as the front lifts north of ENC. Seeing widespread 5-10 kt winds varying from E north of the front to to SSW south of the front across the waters this morning with 2-4 ft seas across our coastal waters. Expect light winds and low seas to persist through the morning today. However, as we get into the afternoon hours expect the thermal trough to develop tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in SW'rly winds increasing to around 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt with seas building to 4-7 ft. Winds will be strongest across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters and have kept SCA's for these areas while also adding the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet north to Duck. Winds relax briefly Friday morning, but then tighten again Friday afternoon as a front approaches from the NW with SCA conditions expected to redevelop over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Outlook (Saturday through Monday): Once again not much change in the forecast as conditions gradually improve Saturday, then will see a backdoor cold front drop through the waters late Saturday night and Sunday with winds becoming NE around 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. A weak area of low pressure may form along the stalled front to the south Monday keeping E-NEly flow across the waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ045>047-080-081-090-092-094-193>196-198-199- 203>205. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ158. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCF AVIATION...RCF MARINE...RCF  067 FXUS65 KRIW 091034 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 434 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another warm day today with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms (a 20 to 30 percent chance). Coverage will be similar or less than yesterday. - Record high temperatures are likely this weekend and possibly early next week with some all time record high temperatures possible. The hottest day is likely to be Sunday. - Very low humidity will bring elevated fire weather Friday into early next week. Critical fire weather is possible in northern Wyoming Sunday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 We still have a few light showers in central portions of Wyoming early this morning as we still have a bit of CAPE in the atmosphere. Nothing heavy, and barely any lightning, just a few showers. At this point, any amount of moisture is a good thing. And it looks like it will be another day of convection. There could be some this morning though, especially in portions of Johnson and Natrona County where guidance is showing some CAPE this morning, so we added around a 1 in 5 chance of a shower, it may end up just being virga though. Otherwise, the trend of decreasing coverage of convection continues as precipitable water values continue to drop. Again, the main chance will be East of the Divide with areas to the west largely dry with less than a 1 in 10 chance. For once, we don't have any kind of risk from the Storm Prediction Center. The main threat will be, as it always is this time of year, strong wind gusts. Models soundings continue to show inverted V signatures and with some dew point depressions approaching 50 degrees, wind gusts of 50 mph will be possible with any shower or thunderstorm. This looks like an earlier show with most showers ending after sunset and all over by midnight. Temperatures should be similar to yesterday, quite warm but fairly normal for July. Tomorrow is where we begin to transition from thunderstorms to heat. Drier air will continue to push eastward across the area, dropping precipitable water levels even more. There may be just enough moisture and instability to squeeze out very isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, this would be mainly in Johnson County where a bit more moisture will linger and possibly the mountains with a bit of high elevation heat source. Coverage will be very sparse though, with a capital V and a capital S, less than 5 percent of the area. Temperatures will also begin to rise, approaching 100 in the warm spots like the Bighorn Basin and widespread 90s East of the Divide in the lower elevations. This is hot, but nothing unusually for the middle of July, climatologically the warmest time of the year. Things really change on Saturday. Strong ridging over the desert southwest will begin to build northward, with 500 millibar heights reaching 5970 meters by days end. At the same time, 700 millibar temperatures will rise to as high as 21 celsius. This means a very hot day. Reasoning for today remains the same, most locations below 5200 feet East of the Divide have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees, with the warmest spots like from Thermopolis to Greybull in the Bighorn Basin have an almost 100 percent chance. Some record high temperatures are certainly possible on this day. And, with the warm temperatures aloft and much drier air moving in, the chance of convection will be basically zero. But this is only the appetizer, with the main course likely to be on Sunday. This is when the ridge will be centered over Wyoming, with some models giving 500 millibar heights as high as 6000 meters. The 700 millibar temperatures may climb as high as 24 degrees celsius. All this adds up to a very hot day, possibly one we haven't seen in a long time. The NBA ensemble gives a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 100 degrees in all locations below 6000 feet, with an almost 100 percent chance below 5500 feet. And this includes some places that don;t see 100. Rock Springs has around a 3 in 5 chance of over 100, and even Jackson has a 1 in 3 chance. The lower elevations of the Bighorn Basin have at least a 4 out of 5 chance of high temperatures over 105 degrees on this day. And the warmest spots, like Greybull and Basin, have a 1 in 2 chance of reaching 110. This is the most likely day to see all time record highs broken, especially in locations that have a shorter period of record. As for heat highlights, I had mixed thoughts on this. The main reason is the humidity, or more specifically the lack of it. The lower elevations will have widespread single digit relative humidity, with some locations falling as a 3 percent on Sunday. This has an impact on the apparent temperatures, which is what we base heat highlights on. For one, the apparent temperature will be below the actual temperature by 5 or 10 degrees. Also, with the dry air, almost all locations should cool off at least into the 60s at night. The one place I could see an excessive heat watch is the Bighorn Basin, but this would mainly be for Sunday. Heat advisories look more likely at this time, there is still time so we will punt to day shift to take another look. And there is one more concern for Sunday. The NBM ensemble is giving a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts over 30 mph Sunday afternoon north of a Meeteetse to Worland to Kaycee line. With the extremely dry conditions, we may have to consider Fire Weather Highlights for Sunday afternoon. There should be some slight, and emphasis on slight. cooling on Monday, be probably only by 3 to 5 degrees. One hundred degree high temperatures will still be very widespread across the lower elevations. One this day, there may be just enough moisture to come around the backside of the ridge for isolated storms in the western mountains, but the chance is only around 1 out of 10. Chances of convection then slowly increase each day, starting mainly in western Wyoming on Tuesday and then spreading eastward as the ridge slowly moves eastward and moisture rotates in around the backside of it. Temperatures will cool at first in the west, but likely remain well above normal through the forecast period. Very hot temperatures continue Tuesday before some cooling moves in for midweek East of the Divide. But even with some cooling, temperatures should remain well above normal through most of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 429 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mid-level cloud decks will be around until around 16Z. In vicinity of CPR very light showers will be possible this morning . These could lead to some wind gusts from varying directions this morning. In the afternoon, most convection should be concentrated in central Wyoming. With that we have maintained the PROB30 groups at KRIW, KLND and KWRL for mid and late afternoon. We also added a PROB30 group to KCPR give the latest model trends. Most locations have at least a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but with chances less than 15 percent there is not enough confidence to include in the TAFs. Wind will increase this afternoon, with some gusts to 12 to 20 knots possible at all TAF sites after 18Z. Any shower or thunderstorm could have wind gusts over 35 to 40 knots. Most convection should end shortly after sunset. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Hattings  146 FXUS64 KEWX 091037 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 537 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 533 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hottest day of the week Thursday, and heat index values will continue topping out in the 100 to 105 degree range each day through early next week. - Ambient temperatures ease off Friday into next week as daily rain chances return. - Strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours will be possible Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weak upper level shear axis is over South TX, but mid level ridging best seen at the 700 mb level is going to keep stable weather over the region through Thursday. Heating will be enhanced slightly due to the arrival of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume, and we'll probably see temperatures bump up another degree or two, and that could take AUS to join ATT as new arrivals for triple digit temperatures for the first time of the season. Similar to the previous dust plume, this one doesn't hang around long and the hazy conditions will be replaced be more moist and tropical air during the daytime Friday. As part of a broader low pressure area aloft over much of Mexico, a lobe of 500 mb energy, lifts north into South TX Friday morning, bringing with it higher PWat values of 2 to 2.4 inches into the Coastal Prairies. This has lead to a significant bump in rain chances for Friday and will also signal some heat relief from all the clouds spreading inland. A few strong storms, mainly wind producers could develop as early day heating could create some good air contrasts as the rain cooled air spreads north. With the high PWat environment and expected northward storm motions of around 20-25 mph, some areas could see a quick 2 inch rainfall amount which to lead to some low-end flooding concerns. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Wrn US and begins to lift north over the Rockies into the Northern Plains states this weekend. The northward amplification leaves much of TX in a broadening area of weakness as the H5 vorticity feature mentioned in the Short Term becomes more loosely defined. This broad area of weakness should continue to promote 30-40 percent rain chance type of opportunity at least for Saturday. The PWat values remain elevated and over 2 inches in spots, but the higher concentration of tropical air shifts NE to between Waco and Palestine by early Saturday evening. This more chaotic pattern should give the area a more air mass storm type which means timing and locations will likely jump around a bit based on where outflow boundaries are located. Heights continue to soar over the Northern Plains Sunday and this will funnel a lot of the mid level winds south of the bubble to be out of the E and N. This should hold the pooling of moisture over North and East TX, but could lead to some boosts in rain chances over Central TX and the Coastal Prairies. The pattern is fairly similar for Monday and Tuesday, so there could be a escalating concern for flooding should the rains concentrate daily over the same spots. The pattern becomes more sketchy late next week with the GFS and ECM deterministic runs showing less agreement, so there is perhaps an opening for another quiet period as early as mid-week. The NASA Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness modeling tool suggest a larger plume moving into the Gulf early next week should help slow the recurrent convective pattern down by next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR flight conditions continue through the period under few clouds to clear skies.The south to southeasterly winds increase this morning becoming breezy by this afternoon. Breezes remain through the evening before subsiding later overnight into early Friday morning. Expect for peak gusts up into the range of 20 to 25 kt across the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 100 77 97 78 / 0 0 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 99 77 96 78 / 0 0 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 76 95 77 / 0 0 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 98 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 100 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 98 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 75 94 76 / 0 0 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 75 95 77 / 0 0 30 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 77 96 78 / 0 0 30 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 76 94 77 / 0 0 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 98 77 94 78 / 0 0 40 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...62  393 FXUS61 KCLE 091043 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 643 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. The potential for rain on Saturday across our southern counties has trended slightly higher. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area late today through Friday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated damaging winds across Northwest Ohio, Lake Erie, and the eastern lakeshore late today into tonight. Some thunderstorms can also produce heavy rain through Friday. 2) Rain chances may linger into Saturday before a drying trend this weekend into early next week. Temperatures trend above average early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and gradually sag across the area Friday afternoon and evening. Aloft, a shortwave is tracking across the upper Ohio Valley this morning. A northern stream shortwave tracks across the southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Another weak shortwave will track through the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday morning. The combination of the front, shortwaves, and the return of a moist and unstable airmass will allow for occasional opportunities for showers and storms through Friday. We will largely start dry today, but may have a couple of showers from eastern OH into northwestern PA early in proximity to the Ohio Valley shortwave. Will then turn attention to extreme Northeast OH/Northwest PA early to mid-afternoon, when a lake breeze pushes inland and potentially sparks isolated to widely scattered showers/storms. Otherwise, greater rain potential waits until closer to this evening. Storms are still favored to develop in closer proximity to the front across parts of southern MI, northern IN, and far Northwest OH by late this afternoon as we reach peak heating and as a shortwave begins tracking across the southern Great Lakes. This activity will try spreading east-southeast into the area through this evening, though there is not great agreement on how far this activity can progress as it outruns the front and greatest instability. Suspect that if activity is able to organize into a cluster that it should spread at least as far east-southeast as the I-71 corridor through the evening if not a bit farther, though models show considerable disagreement on that. After perhaps a lull following the evening convection, another uptick is favored overnight as the next shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley and as the front continues slowly approaching. This uptick in showers and storms may linger into Friday morning, especially from eastern OH into PA. We'll likely see activity exit east with the shortwave Friday morning, but with the front still sagging through the area and a humid airmass in place am expecting at least scattered re-development along and ahead of the front by early afternoon, with activity continuing through the afternoon before exiting south or weakening Friday night. The SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather in the form of damaging winds across Northwest OH, Lake Erie, and the adjacent eastern lakeshore for this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG (with a tall/skinny CAPE profile) and 20-25kt of bulk shear may support loosely organized convection, with strong heating and well-mixed low- levels suggesting potential for cold pool development and organization with any clusters of storms...this can support the isolated damaging wind threat. Severe weather is unlikely on Friday due to weaker heating and minimal shear. Otherwise, the other concern is potential for locally heavy rain as precipitable waters climb to 1.75-2.00" tonight into Friday. This amount of moisture, combined with skinny instability profiles and high freezing levels, can support very efficient rain rates within convection tonight and Friday. The main concern may be overnight tonight into Friday morning when there is some signal for training convection along or just ahead of the sagging front. With plenty of disagreement on the overall evolution of convection on hi-res models, it's hard to be too confident if or where any heavy rain and potential for localized flash flooding would play out. Still, some potential is evident and the WPC has the area highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding for tonight and Friday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s today before scaling back a few degrees into the low to mid 80s on Friday. Overnight lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dew points will climb into the upper 60s to near 70 tonight and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2... A shortwave and low pressure will dive through the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night. The front will stall close to our southern counties late tonight and Saturday, and the overall setup has trended a bit farther north in recent model runs. Potential for at least some showers is enough to warrant a 20-40% forecast mention across our south on Saturday. Also have a small shower mention along parts of the western lakeshore late Friday night into Saturday, as some models suggest enough moisture for a few lake-enhanced sprinkles or showers in the ENE flow. The forecast trends drier Saturday night into Sunday, though it's worth noting that some models hint at a few isolated showers on Sunday owing to high pressure building in slower than expected and low pressure still drifting through the Ohio Valley...one small thing to monitor. High pressure does finally build in more firmly by Sunday night and lingers through the first half of the week, providing for a prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather. Temperatures are expected to warm above normal for the first half of next week, potentially into the 90s for highs, especially across Northwest Ohio. There remains a fair amount of ensemble spread regarding how quickly ridging over the central U.S. expands east next week, which will have influence on our temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR conditions are largely expected through most of the TAF period with mid to upper-level clouds streaming across the area, and conditions too dry for fog this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in from the northwest Thursday evening and overnight, though low coverage of storms and uncertainty in timing will limit the inclusion of TSRA or non-VFR conditions in most TAFs. Best confidence is at KTOL where most models have convection moving in during the afternoon, when peak heating will contribute to the best chance of seeing lightning (though still relatively low so only included a PROB30). Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Quiet marine conditions expected as weak high pressure lingers over the area this morning. Southwest winds around 5-10 knots become west during the day with waves generally 2 feet or less. A cold front will sag south across Lake Erie tonight into Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near the western basin late this afternoon before coverage increases across the lake tonight. There is a low chance of thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds and briefly higher wave heights. Winds will turn west to northwest behind the front Friday, then northeast this weekend as high pressure builds north of the lake. Wave should remain 2 feet or less through Friday, with 1 to 3 feet possible in the western basin this weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Saunders  371 FXUS62 KILM 091042 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 642 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Extreme Heat Warning issued for the coastal areas of Southeast NC and Northeast SC, with heat indices over 110. Heat Advisory issued for the remainder of the forecast area with heat indices between 105 and 109. Added key message for upcoming high rip current risk for south- facing beaches. Updated aviation discussion with the issuance of the 12Z TAFS. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)The heatwave with just isolated convection to dominate during the near term. 2)Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area. 3)High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...The heatwave with just isolated convection to dominate during the near term. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The upper ridge axis across the area will keep a lid on the majority of any convection that tries to develop today. Isolated tstorms remain possible along the pinned sea breeze across coastal Northeast SC. Mid to upper 90s will dominate todays highs with 100+ degree readings still possible. Even the coastal locations will observe low to mid 90 degree readings. Some mixing of drier air aloft will result in upper 60s sfc dewpoints inland which will keep Heat indices within the advisory criteria. However mid to upper 70s dewpoints will remain across the coastal counties which will result in HIs breaching Extreme Heat Warning thresholds. This same scenario will play out Fri and Sat with a noted flattening of the upper ridge. Will still observe Heat Adv thresholds both Fri and Sat but max temps should remain below 100 degrees. This in part to an evolving increasing threat of convection Fri and especially Sat with debris cloudiness likely helping to hold down max temps. KEY MESSAGE 2...Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper pattern change starting Sun will help aid in dropping a cold front southward, crossing the area Sun with high pressure slow to fill in from the north thru mid-week next week. The result will be the threat for numerous showers and tstorms late Sat night thru Sun night, even after the cold front drops south of the area. This pattern change involves the upper ridge that has plagued the east for quite some time, that will be shifting to the west-central part of the nation and progged to amplify considerably. With plenty of antecedent heat and moisture, the setup should be quite stormy Sunday and Monday, with some storms possibly on the strong/severe side. Temps will also drop considerably with residual low 90s Sun for highs followed by potentially 80s for highs early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3...High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Building southerly swell will lead to a high risk of rip currents for south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. Continued hot weather and weekend timing will contribute to increased beach attendance - beachgoers should stay out of the water where a high risk of rip currents is in effect. Conditions improve on Sunday as the swell weakens, and currently a moderate rip risk is forecasted for Sunday for south-facing beaches. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. Scattered diurnal cumulus around 6-8 kft this afternoon. Southwest winds around 10 kts during the day, with gusts near 20 kts. Winds slightly more southerly at MYR/CRE due to sea breeze after 16z. Isolated thunderstormspossible late this afternoon, mainly over NE SC. Mostly clear skies tonight with SW winds around 5-10 kts. Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sat night into Mon as a frontal system drops south across the region. && .MARINE... Piedmont trof to strengthen across the Carolinas today thru Sat. At the same time, the High over the Atlantic Waters centered well offshore from the Carolinas gets suppressed southward. As a result, looking at increasing SW-WSW winds today thru Sat. Winds speeds increase to around 20 kt with possible frequent 25+ kt gusts across the ILM NC Coastal and Offshore waters Fri thru early Sat. In addition, looking at the threat for 6+ ft short period waves, again across the ILM NC Coastal and especially both ILM NC and SC Offshore waters. With this said, SCA remains possible for the ILM NC Coastal waters Fri thru early Sat. A cold front dropping southward, will cross the local waters Sun. Look for widespread showers and tstorms Sun into early Mon. Winds after FROPA will veer to the NE resulting in temporary victory at sea conditions until the NE wind has time to work on the local waters. NE winds will have an initial surge but then taper back some. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-059. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/VAO KEY MESSAGES...DCH/VAO DISCUSSION...DCH/VAO AVIATION...VAO MARINE...DCH  401 FXUS62 KTAE 091043 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 643 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 637 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Rain chances decrease some today and Friday but an increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend and through early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Some localized areas of advisory level heat indices (108 F) are possible into Friday. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper level ridge axis extending west from the Atlantic will remain over the region this afternoon while weak southwesterly flow associated with a broad upper level trough to the northwest keeps some shower and storm chances in play today. The highest rain chances will generally be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and into northern counties across central Georgia. Conditions will remain warm this afternoon and above average for this time of year as highs climb into the low to mid 90s. Localized areas of heat indices of 108 to 110 are possible, but given potential for cloud cover, some convection, and the spotty nature of these heat indices, have held off on a heat advisory today. Shower and storm chances quickly drop off this evening with mostly quiet conditions expected overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Friday is likely to be the driest and warmest afternoon of the period before rain chances increase over the weekend and next week in response to a weakening Atlantic Ridge. Additionally, a steadily building ridge across the northern Plains will lead to lowering heights across the region. As PWATs increase to well above 2 inches into early next week, well-above normal rain chances will likely develop. This should help bring relief to recent above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Prevailing VFR conds expected away from thunderstorms. Convection initially focuses along the coast before spreading inland from SW to NE. Coverage still looks fairly spotty, so PROB30 groups for TSRA are maintained. Highest confidence in thunder invof of terminals attm are ECP this morning and TLH/DHN in the aftn. Inland activity should diminish after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through today, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. A wetter pattern begins to develop over the weekend and into early next week with multiple days of widespread shower and storm activity expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Relatively low fire weather concerns, outside of higher dispersions across southwest Georgia counties, will prevail the next few days. Afternoon humidities will be in the 40 to 50% range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon with coverage decreasing the rest of the week, with only isolated storms possible today and Friday. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest through the period but localized increases across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons. Main concerns outside fire weather will be heat indices possibly reaching advisory criteria today and Friday with pockets reaching near 110 F. Rain chances increase markedly Saturday into next week with high probabilities for wetting rains expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts around an inch are forecast into the weekend for our Florida counties with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. Lower totals are forecast to the north. By early next week above-normal rainfall chances will likely lead to higher rainfall totals. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 76 96 75 / 20 10 10 0 Panama City 92 81 92 80 / 30 10 10 0 Dothan 95 75 95 74 / 30 20 30 20 Albany 95 76 95 76 / 30 20 20 20 Valdosta 97 75 97 75 / 10 10 10 0 Cross City 96 76 97 76 / 10 0 10 10 Apalachicola 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  355 FXUS63 KOAX 091042 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 542 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cluster of thunderstorms will continue moving southeast this evening into the overnight hours. The main hazards will be pockets of strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. - Near-normal temperatures continue into Friday, with highs generally in the 80s. - A stretch of hot weather is expected this weekend into next week, with highs in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight through Friday... A cluster of thunderstorms have developed along a front draped across northeast Nebraska earlier this evening, supported by a shortwave trough pushing across the northern Plains. Rather limited deep-layer shear (around 20 kts) has kept the initial storm development rather stationary along this boundary. Ample instability (MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg) along with the sufficient shear has brought pockets of strong to severe storms along this cluster. Cold-pool development behind the line will lead to an eventual southward push of this system into the overnight period. As the cold-pool helps force the storms into more of an upscale cluster, isolated pockets of damaging wind gusts (pockets of 60 mph) will be one of the primary hazards over the next few hours, aided by DCAPE of 1000-1200 J/kg. The severe weather potential will gradually decay into the overnight period. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain another concern. PWAT values near 1.80-2" (above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology) and warm cloud depths of 4 km have brought efficient rainfall processes, especially when coupled with the longer residence time. Pockets of 3- 4.50 inches of rainfall have been reported, with the highest totals in western Iowa. CAM guidance continues to hint at a few scattered storms redeveloping behind the main cluster overnight, though the severe weather potential will be limited with these storms given the increasing inhibition and decreasing shear. Storms will push southward across the area overnight, clearing much of the forecast area by 7 AM. Can't rule out a few afternoon storms redeveloping along the front in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, though the better shear and instability should stay just to our south. The lingering cloud cover and slightly cooler air mass will bring afternoon highs in the low to upper 80s. Similar temperatures are expected on Friday with partly cloudy skies. Saturday and Beyond... This weekend into early next week, an amplifying mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to build over the Front Range and gradually expand eastward into the mid-Missouri Valley, leading to a warming trend and relatively dry conditions. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will take a step upward into the upper 80s to mid 90s. By Monday, most locations are expected to reach the 90s a few spots in northeast Nebraska expected to reach the triple digits. Overnight lows will remain in the low 70s. Heat index values are expected to reach the mid 90s to around 105 degrees daily. This hot pattern with minimal precipitation chances will continue into the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 538 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Showers and t-storms have all pushed southeast of the area this morning leaving cigs and visibility restrictions as the major threat. Believe VFR conditions will persist at KOMA and KLNK, with 3 hours of MVFR visibility/cigs with some haze/fog there through about 10:00AM. Otherwise expect light northerly winds to become variable this evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Nicolaisen  559 FXUS61 KRNK 091045 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon, lingering through this evening. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon, lingering through this evening. Stationary front still remains draped over the forecast area this morning and will continue to persist within the area through this afternoon and evening. Weaker forcing today will somewhat limit storm coverage, but still expecting a few afternoon storms to develop across the mountains initially. Storm motions today will be a bit greater with increasing westerly flow, so any storms that do form should tend to not be as stationary as the past few day. With increased storm motions, the threat of flash flooding is lower today, but any storms that exhibit training could cause some localized flooding issues given the very moist airmass that is still in place. A few stronger storms may also result in strong gusty winds, but overall this threat should remain very localized as well. Storms will diminish slowly after sunset tonight. Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend. A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will be a continued focus for showers/storms again Thursday with greatest coverage from 1400 to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day. Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the front essentially stalled over the area, will have to contend with another day for localized heavy rain and marginally severe storms. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for early next week. Temperatures through the end of the week are expected to remain near normal and may actually cool to below normal for a few days early next week. The ridge of high pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is shifting west over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The pattern of scattered afternoon thunderstorms continues for today. Conditions improve to VFR areawide soon after sunrise, after about 13Z or so. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected as early as 17Z, waning by 00Z Friday. Included TSRA for KBLF and KLWB, where thunderstorms should reach first, as well as KROA and KLYH, as confidence is higher a bit farther north. Left VCTS for KBCB and KDAN, as high res guidance shows some differences in how far south storms make it. Nonetheless, any storms that develop near any terminals have the potential for gusty, erratic winds, heavy rain that could quickly reduce vsby, and lightning. Forecast confidence is high in the overall pattern, low to moderate in storm coverage. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Potentially drier conditions look to arrive for early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/PM AVIATION...AS/PM  531 FXUS62 KFFC 091045 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Isolated to scattered storms Today will increase in coverage, becoming numerous over the weekend. - A few storms this weekend may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph and locally heavy rain. - Heat index values peak each afternoon between 95 and 105. Heat Advisory for portions of East-Central GA this afternoon/evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Another hot day on tap with temps expected to get back up into the 90s across much of the area. We have had a slightly drier airmass in place over the past few days with a Mid level ridge keeping precip chances very isolated across the region. Things start to change today as that ridge begins to break down and gulf moisture returns with the West to Southwesterly flow. We will see increased PoPs Today (20% to 40%) with chances continuing to increase into the weekend. With these elevated temps ans dewpoints have continued current Heat advisory across east central GA through this evening. These temps are expected to continue into the end of the week so its very likely necessary again on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this weekend and early next week as a shortwave sends a slow moving front south across the forecast area. Above normal precipitable water values overspread the state by Sunday with the highest rain chances seen Sunday into Monday before high pressure tries to build into the area. A few storms this weekend may become severe, though gusts from 40-50 mph with stronger storms will be more common. Additionally, given the moist environment, any storms may produce locally heavy rainfall which could lead to pockets of flooding if storm motions are slow or storms move over the same areas. Low rain chances remain in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday but any storm activity would likely be more isolated than previous days. Increased cloud cover in addition to rain chances will bring temperatures down a bit through the weekend with widespread temperatures across North and Central Georgia in the 80s by Monday. With drier conditions favored towards the middle of next week, an increase in temperatures is likely to return. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Some isolated showers left over from yesterdays convection are still moving across the area this morning. May see a shower at the ATL area TAF sites over the next hour or so. Expecting Mainly VFR ceilings today with some MVFR ceilings and VSBYs in and around convection. With continued moist West to Southwesterly flow will see diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours. Winds are light and variable this morning but will see winds increase into the 6-12kt range out of the W to SW just after sunrise and stay there through the evening hours. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 95 74 94 74 / 30 20 30 20 Atlanta 93 75 93 75 / 40 10 40 20 Blairsville 84 66 84 66 / 60 20 50 50 Cartersville 92 73 92 73 / 40 10 30 40 Columbus 95 75 94 75 / 30 20 20 10 Gainesville 92 73 92 73 / 40 10 30 20 Macon 95 75 95 75 / 20 20 20 10 Rome 91 72 91 72 / 40 10 40 40 Peachtree City 92 73 92 73 / 30 10 30 20 Vidalia 99 78 99 77 / 10 10 1010 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ085-086-097-098-106-108>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....Heller AVIATION...01  534 FXUS63 KIWX 091045 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. A few of these storms may be strong, capable of isolated gusty winds and heavy rain. - Thunderstorms are also possible Friday and Saturday but severe weather is not expected. - Turning hot and dry next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Challenging short-term forecast today with several rounds of ISO/SCT thunderstorms possible through tomorrow. Weak, positively tilted midlevel trough axis just upstream will cross the region today. Associated uptick in southwesterly low level flow will advect some higher theta-e air into the area, though best moisture remains locked over southern IL/IN. This will yield marginal instability (SBCAPE's roughly 1500-2000 J/kg) by later today, which is enough to support a few strong storms but insufficient for a widespread severe threat. That is especially true given lackluster shear as well (0-6km bulk shear only around 25 kts). The challenge lies in picking out very subtle forcing mechanisms that will dictate timing and location/coverage over the next 24-36 hours. Convection just to our northwest will continue to weaken through the early morning but remnant outflow and approaching midlevel wave could spark a few storms in our NW as early as 13Z. Not expecting much out of these given limited instability but still worth noting. Better (?) chances arrive during the late afternoon with peak diurnal heating but here again there is not much to focus/augment convection and coverage could remain very isolated. Tonight may actually feature the best rain chances (for our southern zones anyway) as models suggest a few MCV's may kick out of Missouri and perhaps clip our S/SE counties. Overall confidence is low however given better moisture gradient and MCV track will be south of our CWA. Any severe risk (damaging winds) would likely be with convection arriving late this afternoon and evening with heavy rain being the primary concern overnight. Overall risk is low for both though and will likely need to fine-tune PoP grids through the day as these subtle forcing mechanisms show themselves. Low confidence in today's forecast cascades into uncertainty for Fri and Sat as well. Models suggest more convectively-enhanced shortwaves ejecting out of the Central Plains but likely tracking just south of our area. Blended initialization maintains some low PoP's for our southern zones into Sat but could easily see those getting trimmed further. No severe weather expected with any storms that do manage to develop in our area Fri-Sat. Large, strong ridge still slated to develop over the Central CONUS early next week and eventually nose into our region. Still some disagreement exactly how far east this ridge builds and whether we might be able to squeeze out some precip chances/cooler temps on the E/NE fringe. That is looking less likely with each new run though and a trend to simply hot and dry conditions for much of next week seems more likely. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 SCT showers and storms expected to develop across the area later this morning as a weak front approaches the region. However, coverage will be limited by marginal instability and weak forcing. Slightly better chance for storms arrives during the late afternoon with peak diurnal heating but even then confidence is not high based on latest CAM's. Will hold with just a PROB30 mention for now. Additional chances for storms extend into the overnight but confidence in timing and coverage remains too low to mention in the TAF's at this point. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...AGD  680 FXUS62 KCAE 091046 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Hot and breezy conditions continue through the end of the week with isolated thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow. - 2. A frontal boundary brings higher rain chances for the weekend followed by increasingly likely cooler temps. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Hot and breezy conditions continue through the end of the week with isolated thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow. An mid to upper level trough over the Tennessee Valley continues to slowly trek eastward today, gradually flattening out the ridge overhead. As the trough moves eastward, it is expected to absorbed into a larger scale trough in the northern stream. A weak surface trough is anticipated to develop through the end of the week in response, leading to breezy conditions and the chance for isolated thunderstorms both today and Friday. Despite the trough moving overhead, 850mb temps are forecast to be around 21-23C, which should lead to surface temps in the upper 90s today and tomorrow. Dew points are forecast to be in the upper 60s to around 70F, resulting in heat indices in the 100-105F range both afternoons. Continue to take precautions if you need to spend prolonged time outdoors the next couple of days. Thunderstorm coverage the next couple of days doesn't look to be very high due to weak forcing mechanisms. However, forecast soundings show an inverted V profile, indicating the potential for some stronger winds with and storms that are able to develop. Key Message 2: A frontal boundary brings higher rain chances for the weekend followed by increasingly likely cooler temps. A frontal boundary draped over the Upper Midwest early this morning is forecast to get pushed southward from a shortwave moving from the Great Lakes into the Southeast through the weekend. As the front and associated upper trough approach the area, more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be anticipated for the weekend. This activity could linger into early next week as latest guidance indicates that the front stalls out near the area. In addition to the increased rain chances, it looks increasingly likely that we'll see cooler temps. The NBM interquartile range (IQR) on Monday ranges from the low to mid 80s to around 90F for the area. Given the recent hot temps, the NBM takes that into account and will likely have a warm bias. So, I would not be surprised if we end up toward the cooler end of the IQR. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Mostly clear skies this morning with only some passing cirrus then diurnal cumulus expected to develop with strong heating again today. A 20 knot low level jet is supporting surface winds around 5 knots which should increase to around 10 knots by 15z. Gusty winds are again expected by midday with southwesterly winds increasing to around 12-13 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots through the afternoon. Hi-res guidance suggesting some convection impacting the CSRA late afternoon so have included a PROB30 group there. Winds should subside after sunset but remain up around 5 to 7 knots overnight with a strong low level jet forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions expected. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon storms this weekend and into early next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...29 AVIATION...23  634 FXUS63 KGRR 091045 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers and Storms Today - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered Showers and Storms Today Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain the mode today. While not as warm as yesterday, the humidity will be a little higher. A weak cold front slowly arriving from the northwest, weak midlevel shortwave troughing, and remnant vorticity maxima from yesterday evening's convection over the Upper Miss. River valley, should serve to initiate shower and storm development. Initially elevated convection is possible most anywhere later this morning, then more surface-based storms would be favored east of US-131 during the afternoon. CAPE should be in the range of 750-1500 J/kg. Low-level wind shear is expected to be weak, and deep layer shear of 20 kt is also on the marginal side. With weak forcing and weak storm- relative inflow, storm updrafts should be smaller-scale and less likely to produce severe hail. By afternoon, the well mixed lower levels and DCAPE around 600 J/kg would support locally gusty winds under any of the more robust storm cells, with a marginal risk of severe winds near and east of Battle Creek - Lansing. Rain today is not guaranteed in any location. However, an isolated inch or more of rain could fall in a couple spots. Added patchy fog into the forecast for early Friday morning as winds go calm and skies partially clear. Isolated showers or storms may continue to percolate in mid/southern Lower Michigan tonight into Friday. - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up Rising heights in the upper levels and a strengthening surface high over Lower Michigan this weekend will favor a dry forecast. There is about a 10 percent chance of a shower or storm popping up on Sunday, better chances north. As a 500 mb high (associated with a heat wave out west) strengthens and migrates from the SW CONUS to the Dakotas this weekend into Monday, a plume of 20-25 C air at 850 mb will advect into Michigan from the west-northwest Monday-Tuesday. High temperatures in the 90s away from Lake Michigan are well supported by the ECE and GEPS. Dew points may be a little lower than with last week's heat wave, but a heat index in the mid to upper 90s is favored. Mid to late week, the spread in solutions increases (and confidence decreases), dependent on the relative strength and position of the central CONUS high and the eastern Canadian trough, but now a majority of ECE members and about 25 percent of GEPS members (not to mention a few GEFS members) keep highs in the 90s through Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm cell ongoing this morning. Expecting cloud bases mostly at or above 4,000 feet today. The big caveat to the prevailing VFR will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the day and moving east. Went with a pretty long duration window of prob30 thunderstorm as models offer a wide variety of solutions regarding coverage and location of thunderstorms at a given time. Any better-developed thunderstorm cells this afternoon, especially east of GRR-AZO, will be capable of microbursts/LLWS and temporary IFR visibility. Patchy fog may develop Friday morning around 08 to 12 Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light winds and low waves expected over Lake Michigan today, with wind direction variable depending on location. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing over the lake this morning. Friday, north-northwest winds may build 2 to 4 foot waves and a moderate swim risk by late afternoon. Swim risk is expected to be low this weekend with a high pressure system over the area. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...CAS MARINE...CAS  717 FXUS61 KILN 091048 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 648 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing of heavy rain potential is coming into somewhat better focus. Also, added mention of drying out and warming up next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms early this morning and then again late tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible south of I-70. 2) A low pressure system will track across the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night bringing more potential for heavy rainfall. 3) Drier and warmer conditions for next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Showers and a few lingering thunderstorms are moving out of the area. It appears that this has enhanced a weak mid level disturbance. In the wake of this, there is some question whether any additional activity will be able to develop as a subtle short wave tracks across central and eastern Kentucky today. But there is some new development near Louisville that suggests that at least scattered activity may move across southern counties later this morning into the early afternoon. Attention then shifts westward. A convective system will come rolling out of Illinois this evening and approach the region, most likely after midnight, in a weakening state. There is a range of possibilities on how this impacts the region. The HREF and REFS both want to drive more robust convection southeast, thus missing the forecast area to the south. This would mean that showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms would be all that moves into the region late tonight. Precipitable water will rebound, especially south of I-70 where it may range from 1.8 to 2 inches. Thus if any stronger echoes track into the region, there will be a continued concern for locally heavy rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 2) Short wave over the mid Mississippi Valley early Saturday will slowly push east southeast through the day and into Saturday night. Associated surface low will track from western Illinois across southern Indiana into central Kentucky. Showers and storms will occur with and in advance of the low with a more focused axis in the vicinity of a weak warm front/surface trough extending out ahead of the low. Precipitable water will be decreasing from north to south during this period. But heavy rainfall may still occur since more concentrated/robust activity is possible, and that may still be tapping into the northern gradient of the departing very moist air mass. This threat will be limited to southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky and Ohio counties near the Ohio River. KEY MESSAGE 3) Large mid level high pressure system that will be developing over the northern/central Plains will eventually extend eastward into the region. This will result in dry weather for early to mid week. In addition, temperatures will trend upwards with readings eventually getting into the upper 80s to lower 90s. At this point, the probability of heat indices even approaching advisory levels is very low, less than 20 percent. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Generally VFR conditions across the region with varying amounts of clouds in the 4-7kft range. A decaying area of showers and thunderstorms may move into the region after 06Z, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty whether that will occur. So have just included PROB30 for this potential. MVFR ceilings may develop into the Cincinnati terminals late in the period, although confidence in that occurring is on the low side. Winds will veer to the west southwest and increase to around 10 kt today. Winds will weaken after 00Z and become southerly again. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible late tonight through Saturday night. MVFR ceilings are possible Friday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible late Friday night into Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...35  858 FXUS63 KICT 091055 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 555 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional thunderstorm chances develop later this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected, though the strongest storms may be capable of damaging winds and small hail. - Continued chances for showers and storms through the weekend, especially late overnight into the early morning hours. - Mid-upper 90s expected today with lower 90s this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Currently, a relatively flat ridge extends across the Western US with a shortwave situated over the Northern Plains. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is positioned just ahead of this wave across the Upper Midwest and into Nebraska. A stationary boundary is draped just to the north of our forecast area that pushed across the state yesterday as a warm front. Afternoon temperatures yesterday topped out a couple of degrees above normal and similar conditions are expected today before the frontal boundary over Nebraska pushes across the region later tonight. Rain and general thunderstorms developed overnight across the Flint Hills and linger over eastern Kansas early this morning. This activity will gradually shift east out of the area and diminish in intensity through the morning hours. As the frontal boundary to our north begins to push south into our area later this afternoon/evening, a few diurnally driven storms will fire ahead of the boundary in southern Kansas. More widespread rain and storm chances are expected as an MCS off the High Plains pushes eastward during the late evening and overnight hours. Most guidance is directing this feature across central Kansas, though nearly all locations remain in play at this time. The main threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts, primarily across western and central Kansas as storms are expected to weaken as they progress eastward. Scattered rain and storm chances will continue into Friday and Saturday as the frontal boundary stalls across the southern tier of our area. Exact storm position will depend on where this boundary settles. Then, as a strong ridge builds over the central US next week, the forecast area looks to reside under easterly flow. This setup could support a few showers and weak storms as Gulf moisture pushes into the region. With current model placement of the mid/upper high, the southern portion of our area, or even south of Kansas, would be the most likely location of this convective activity next week. As previously mentioned, temperatures this afternoon will once again reach a couple degrees above normal (mid-upper 90s) ahead of the frontal boundary. Behind the boundary, slightly "cooler" temperatures are forecast with highs reaching into the lower 90s for Friday into early next week. As the ridge builds over the region, temperatures will begin to creep warmer through mid week. It continues to appear that the ridge will build far enough north that the true heat dome will remain north of our region. Even so, high temperatures for the middle of next week look to reach into the middle 90s, with upper 90s possible for far south-central Kansas. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few lingering showers are currently impacting CNU this morning, look for minimal impacts at the site for the next couple hours. Additional rain and storms look to impact central Kansas sites after 03Z, potentially lingering through the end of the forecast period. Winds will be widely variable around 10 knots today across the region as a weak surface low moves across the state. Northeasterly winds will continue in central Kansas with southerly winds across southern Kansas turning westerly and eventually northeasterly by this evening. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMD AVIATION...AMD  876 FXUS64 KFWD 091055 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 555 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions are expected today and Friday with heat index values near 105 degrees. - Rain and storm chances return to the region late Saturday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weak upper level disturbance that had been hanging out across the Ozarks and extending back into northeast Texas has finally pulled away from the region allowing mid level ridging to build back into North Texas. This will result in hot and rain free conditions today and again on Friday with highs at or just above 100 degrees and heat index values near 105 degrees. Deep boundary layer mixing and slightly higher wind speeds will allow dewpoints to fall into the mid 60s during peak heating which should keep heat index values at or just above the ambient air temperature. The only exception to this may be across our northeast counties where recent rainfall has allowed dewpoints to remain slightly elevated. Heat index values may briefly top 105 degrees here this afternoon. Otherwise, no significant weather is expected through tonight with southerly winds remaining breezy through the overnight hours into early Friday. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Hot and dry weather will continue Friday and Saturday as mid level ridging expands but changes will be on the way for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Until then, high temperatures at or just above 100 degrees will continue with heat index values near 105. Ridging will expand and shift westward over the Intermountain West by late Saturday which will allow troughing to dig through the Central and Southern Plains by Saturday night. A weak frontal boundary will also slide southward into the Plains during this time and should serve as a focus for convective development mainly to our north. In addition, we may see an uptick in sea breeze convection to our southeast which may spread into our far southeast counties late Saturday afternoon/evening. With weak synoptic forcing for ascent spreading through the Southern Plains late Saturday night, ongoing convection to our north should spread south toward the Red River during the late overnight hours into early Sunday. It's a little uncertain how much activity will be ongoing during this time, but the weak frontal boundary should sag south toward the I-20 corridor during the day Sunday. Moisture pooling along this boundary and continued weak ascent atop an unstable boundary layer should result in a quick uptick in convection during the day Sunday across much of North Texas where we'll have 30-60% PoPs. A moisture rich atmosphere featuring fairly weak low and mid level flow should favor slow moving thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy rainfall. Given the broad but continued synoptic ascent through the overnight hours with little capping, convection may persist well into the nighttime hours Sunday night beyond the normal summertime diurnal convective cycle. The weak frontal boundary and mid level trough will continue to sag farther south on Monday with rain chances continuing primarily along and south of I-20 where we'll continue with 40-60% PoPs. As we get into the middle part of the week, the mid level ridging to the north will expand a bit farther south and should push the bulk of the rain/storm chances well into Central TX. We'll continue with some 20-30% PoPs Tuesday into Wednesday mainly south of I-20. While the threat for severe weather appears to be pretty low during this time, we will have to monitor for some potential heavy rainfall given a setup favoring persistentmoisture transport into North and Central TX and persistent synoptic forcing for ascent. In an uncapped and unstable environment, we can often see bands of training rainfall set up with little advance notice of location. That being said, the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe will feature some of the higher rain chances that we've seen in a while along with slightly cooler temperatures given the increased cloud cover. Things will wind down toward the middle and latter part of next week with temperatures climbing back above seasonal normals. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds around 15 kt. No significant aviation concerns expected through the period. Dunn/Purlee && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 99 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 97 76 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 100 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 101 80 100 81 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 99 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 99 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 99 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 101 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  829 FXUS66 KPQR 091054 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 354 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow will continue to yield dry and seasonable weather through this weekend. Daytime highs trend warmer early next week as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. After the middle of next week, uncertainty increases in the exact forecast, but a warming and drying trend is expected. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday...Minimal changes in the overall synoptic pattern through the remainder of the week. A broad, upper level trough will continue to push south and east through British Columbia, while a broad area of high pressure remains anchored over the Great Basin. This synoptic set-up is resulting in zonal flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface. This pattern will help to maintain near normal daytime highs across the forecast area as well as slightly cooler than normal, overnight lows. As the start of next week approaches, another upper level trough or closed low, looks to dive southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and move into British Columbia. Which will result in the upper level flow pattern becoming southwesterly. In addition to the Alaskan system, the Great Basin high will also re-build. This general pattern change will result in a slight warming trend starting Sunday and continuing through the middle of the week. Expect high temperatures through the first half of next week to reach the mid to upper 80s inland and mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast, while overnight lows similarly push a few degrees warmer into the mid 50s across the region. This combination of temperatures continues to support widespread Minor HeatRisk across the majority of the region with isolated areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Portland/Vancouver metro and through the Columbia Gorge, especially on Tuesday. There remains a broad region from Salem north through the Lower Cowlitz Valley and east along the I-84 corridor through the Gorge where there is a 20-50% chance of Moderate HeatRisk on both Monday and Tuesday if forecast temperatures trend warmer, with the highest likelihood in the Lower Tualatin Valley (Beaverton, Tigard, Tualatin) and neighboring portions of Multnomah and Clackamas Counties (Portland, Wilsonville). Chances for Major HeatRisk are 10% or less across the region. Uncertainty in the temperature forecast increases beyond Wednesday as consensus is relatively low in the long-term evolution of the strong upper ridge. Nonetheless, chances for rain remain minimal through the period. /42-36 && .AVIATION...Generally VFR through the entire TAF period for inland locations. Coastal terminals will likely experience intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions through 18Z Thursday marine stratus slowly develops along the coast. Along the coast there is a 10-20% chance of IFR conditions developing, higher near KAST. If lowered flight conditions develop, expect improvement towards VFR after 18Z Thursday. However,guidance suggests the potential of MVFR/IFR conditions to return to the coast around 03Z-05Z Friday. North to northwest winds through the TAF period, 5-10 kt with afternoon gusts up to 20 kt possible at inland terminals from 00Z-06Z Friday and 7-15 kt with afternoon gusts up to 25 kt possible at coastal terminals from 18Z Thursday through 04Z Friday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the TAF period. Northwest winds around 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt from 00Z-06Z Friday. /42 && .MARINE...North to northwest winds across all waters through the weekend. Winds generally remain around 15 kt or less, though pressure gradients are expected to tighten this afternoon and evening which will result in a 10-20% chance of gusts up to 25 kt for locations south of Cape Foulweather. There is also a 5-15% chance for gusts up to 22 kt for locations south of Cape Falcon for the same time period. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the weekend and into the start of next week. /42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  964 FXUS63 KMPX 091057 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 557 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated diurnal showers possible Friday. Otherwise the rest of the next 7 days looks dry. - Long duration, potentially significant heat wave moves in this weekend and continues through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 It has been a quiet night with the diffuse cold front that moved through Wednesday now down across northern Iowa and southern WI. You can also see drying and subsidence on water vapor. Though this looks like a good candidate for fog and stratus, we've hung on to a 3k to 6k foo cloud deck that has kept the fog from running wild this morning. All in all, this will be a very nice day, with skies clearing out and highs in the low 80s with dewpoints retreating to the upper 50s to mid 60s. As we go through the day today, a weak cold front will be moving across NoDak. Storms will likely fire along the front late in the day today, with a few showers/storm moving into northwest MN and possibly northwest sections of our forecast area out near Alexandria and Long Prairie late tonight. This diffuse boundary will continue east into MN on Friday, where it will start washing out. However, just enough convergence looks to be left over on this front, that when combined with daytime heating will be enough to spark some isolated showers and storms Friday afternoon, most likely in central MN. This is the one straw we have to grasp at for precipitation chances over the next 7 days. For this weekend, the well advertised and potentially record breaking h5 high begins building in. Those height rises Saturday and Sunday will squash any precipitation chances and begin sending thermometers up into the 90s. By Monday and Tuesday next week, even ensemble means show h5 heights exceeding 600dm in southern MN. In the STC/MPX upper air climate record (1948-present), the max observed h5 height is 598dm. The last time we got there was August of 2023 when the high was...98 degrees. So this will be a hot airmass that builds in next week, just how hot is still uncertain, especially as the h5 heights start to recede Wednesday. However, current soil moisture conditions are not bone dry thanks to recent frequent rains. In addition, we're now entering the peak evapotranspiration season for the corn crop (welcome to corn sweat season!). These two factors will likely make it tough to reach the heights of the top end ensemble members (highs of 100 to 105), but it will still be uncomfortably warm. As for when we'll see relief from the heat, both the GEFS and EPS mean highs for Wednesday-Friday have been trending warmer, so unless we can manage to work some convective complexes this far south mid-late next week (which looks hard to do given our capping and how far north the storm track recedes), which means we're probably looking at the weekend of the 18th and 19th before we start seeing some relief from the heat. See the climate section below for a cautionary note about all those 100s you see models (looking at you ECMWF) cranking out next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lingering fog and lower level clouds will dissipate within an hour or two of TAF start, as temperatures warming even a couple degrees will lose saturation. In addition, there is some dry air incoming from the northwest aloft that will help the entire profile dry out. Winds will remain light and somewhat variable throughout, favoring a northerly component more often than others. As soon as the early fog/clouds are gone, VFR is expected for the rest of the period with mainly high clouds, as forecast soundings highlight a lack of a saturated layer for cumulus development this afternoon. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 With the heat dome building in, we're seeing many a model and ensemble members throw 100s around for highs like it's no big deal. However, we're going to just put a word of caution about putting 100 in the forecast based on 100 degree climatology in the Twin Cities. The official Twin Cities climate record going back to 1871. In those 155 years, we have met or exceeded 100 degrees only 67 times, with only 6 of those coming since 2000. In the last 50 years multiple 100 degree days in a year has happened only twice, 1988 (4 days) and 2012 (2 days). With it's 00z run, the ECMWF cranked out highs of 99, 100, 101, 105, 103, and 100 for Monday through Saturday next week. This would be something we have only observed once, in 1936. Given how rare 100 degree days are, especially if you ignore what happened during the dust bowl in the 1930s (I really wonder how people survived summers in the 1930s without AC, the heat was absolutely brutal that decade!), we're skeptical about some of the high end forecasts (like that of the 00z ECMWF). With that said, we will likely see several days with highs above freezing, with this level of heat being dangerous for anyone that has to be out working in it. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...TDH CLIMATE...MPG  928 FXUS66 KPQR 091056 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 356 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow will continue to yield dry and seasonable weather through this weekend. Daytime highs trend warmer early next week as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. After the middle of next week, uncertainty increases in the exact forecast, but a warming and drying trend is expected. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday...Minimal changes in the overall synoptic pattern through the remainder of the week. A broad, upper level trough will continue to push south and east through British Columbia, while a broad area of high pressure remains anchored over the Great Basin. This synoptic set-up is resulting in zonal flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface. This pattern will help to maintain near normal daytime highs across the forecast area as well as slightly cooler than normal, overnight lows. As the start of next week approaches, another upper level trough or closed low, looks to dive southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and move into British Columbia. Which will result in the upper level flow pattern becoming southwesterly. In addition to the Alaskan system, the Great Basin high will also re-build. This general pattern change will result in a slight warming trend starting Sunday and continuing through the middle of the week. Expect high temperatures through the first half of next week to reach the mid to upper 80s inland and mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast, while overnight lows similarly push a few degrees warmer into the mid 50s across the region. This combination of temperatures continues to support widespread Minor HeatRisk across the majority of the region with isolated areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Portland/Vancouver metro and through the Columbia Gorge, especially on Tuesday. There remains a broad region from Salem north through the Lower Cowlitz Valley and east along the I-84 corridor through the Gorge where there is a 20-50% chance of Moderate HeatRisk on both Monday and Tuesday if forecast temperatures trend warmer, with the highest likelihood in the Lower Tualatin Valley (Beaverton, Tigard, Tualatin) and neighboring portions of Multnomah and Clackamas Counties (Portland, Wilsonville). Chances for Major HeatRisk are 10% or less across the region. Uncertainty in the temperature forecast increases beyond Wednesday as consensus is relatively low in the long-term evolution of the strong upper ridge. Nonetheless, chances for rain remain minimal through the period. /42-36 && .AVIATION...Generally VFR through the entire TAF period for inland locations. Coastal terminals will likely experience intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions through 18Z Thursday marine stratus slowly develops along the coast. Along the coast there is a 20-30% chance for MVFR conditions to develop along with a 10-20% chance of IFR conditions developing, higher near KAST. If lowered flight conditions develop, expect improvement towards VFR after 18Z Thursday. However,guidance suggests the potential of MVFR/IFR conditions to return to the coast around 03Z-05Z Friday. North to northwest winds through the TAF period, 5-10 kt with afternoon gusts up to 20 kt possible at inland terminals from 00Z-06Z Friday and 7-15 kt with afternoon gusts up to 25 kt possible at coastal terminals from 18Z Thursday through 04Z Friday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the TAF period. Northwest winds around 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt from 00Z-06Z Friday. /42 && .MARINE...North to northwest winds across all waters through the weekend. Winds generally remain around 15 kt or less, though pressure gradients are expected to tighten this afternoon and evening which will result in a 10-20% chance of gusts up to 25 kt for locations south of Cape Foulweather. There is also a 5-15% chance for gusts up to 22 kt for locations south of Cape Falcon for the same time period. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the weekend and into the start of next week. /42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland