228 FXUS62 KMLB 091101 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 701 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida from 11 AM through 8 PM for peak afternoon heat indices up to 110F. - Hot through Saturday, especially across the north where high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will keep heat indices in the mid to upper 100s, with widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts. - Below normal rain chances 30% or less continue through Friday, then rain chances pick back up closer to normal 30% to 60% from the weekend into early next week, before decreasing again. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Tonight...The weak surface pressure ridge axis from the Atlantic High slowing lifts from South Florida towards North Florida, under a high pressure ridge in roughly the same spot. Weak southerly low level flow becomes more variable, allowing the sea breezes to march inland at roughly the same rate, slightly favoring the west coast breeze and the east coast breeze from the Cape south, and colliding across the interior late in the evening. Dry air continues to filter in, knocking rain chances back to just 20% from the Orlando Metro to the Cape north (with the sea breeze collision being the primary focus), and less than 20% to the south. The environment will support rapid updraft growth for deep convection that manages to develop, and the dry air could enhance downdrafts. Primary storm hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds 40-55 mph (with a very low chance for locally high winds to 60 mph), and torrential downpours. Generally expected a late start for storms after 6 PM, but a few could pop around 4 PM. While drier as has lowered dew points a few degrees, temperatures are forecast to creep up a few more degrees, with afternoon highs in the M-U90s across most of East Central Florida, within a couple degrees of daily high temperatures records for a few locations (see Climate section below). Resulting peak afternoon Heat Indices will be near to above 108F, up to 110F along the I-95 corridor in Volusia, Brevard, and adjacent portions of inland counties. Widespread Major with areas of Extreme HeatRisk impacts are anticipated. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida from 11 AM to 8 PM. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Take frequent hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C or shade if you feel unwell. A Moderate risk of rip currents continues at the beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone. Friday-Saturday...The weak surface ridge axis stays more or less over Central Florida, continuing light southerly to southeasterly flow. Very dry air Friday plus a weak onshore component shifts the meager 20% rain chances well inland for most of the area, except to the south where the arrival of higher moisture increases rain chances to 20-30%. High temperatures remain in the M-U90s for most of the area, but the drier air shaves a few degrees off peak afternoon heat indices Friday, bringing them more into the L-M100s. A bit more moisture filters up into Central Florida Saturday, increasing rain chances closer to normal (30-60%), but also nudging peak afternoon heat indices back up towards Heat Advisory criteria near or above 107F. Widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts are forecast both days. Typical afternoon thunderstorm risks continue, though Friday will again be conditional on storms developing. Sunday-Wednesday...Some relief from the above normal heat is expected next week (not that normal Florida heat isn't still gross) as a trough building into thewestern Atlantic suppresses the ridge at the surface and aloft, and drier than normal air continues to advect from the south. Despite the drier air, upper level support from the trough and a front with its associated moisture sagging into the Deep South will support near to slightly above normal rain chances and higher cloud cover, knocking afternoon highs closer to normal in the L-M90s (for what that's worth). Widespread Moderate with areas of Major HeatRisk impacts are forecast, along with peak afternoon heat indices in the L-M100s. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Monday...Generally favorable winds and seas. Weak pressure ridge extending to Florida from the Atlantic High will meander north and south across the peninsula through the period, shifting flow from offshore (S-SW) today to more longshore (SW-SE) Friday and Saturday, then back more offshore early next week. The sea breeze circulation will back winds to the S-SE from the afternoon into the early overnight. Wind speeds 5-15 kts, occasionally pushing over 15 kts from the Cape north in the late evenings. Seas 1-3 feet. Low (20% or less) chances for showers and lightning storms through Friday, then chances increase closer to normal (30-60%) through the weekend into early next week, starting near the coast Saturday and Sunday, then expanding into the offshore waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms. Light and variable winds are expected to increase from SW at 6-12kts before backing SE into the aftn/eve except at KLEE. Winds are expected to become light and variable into the overnight. VCTS is forecast at the TAF sites N of KMLB after 20Z/21Z and before 01Z/02Z. The potential exists for an isolated strong storm. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 97 (2202) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 96 (2203) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 96 (2204) 97 (2202) 96 (2200) Fort Pierce 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 95 76 95 76 / 20 20 0 0 MCO 97 76 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 MLB 93 77 92 78 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 94 77 92 77 / 0 0 20 0 LEE 96 78 97 78 / 20 20 20 20 SFB 97 76 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 ORL 97 77 96 77 / 20 20 10 10 FPR 93 76 91 77 / 0 0 20 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Fehling  236 FXUS64 KLZK 091101 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 601 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 -Temperatures across the state will remain near normal to a few degrees above normal for the next couple of days. -Rain and isolated storm chances will become less widespread, but be present from I-40 northward on Thursday and across northern Arkansas on Friday. -A cold front will dive from the north out of Missouri into Arkansas to finish the out the weekend bringing an increased chance of widespread rain and storms to the Arkansas on Sunday into the day on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The state of Arkansas will remain under the eastern edge of a H500 ridge through Friday. Into the weekend, a ridge pattern begins to amplify over the Western region of the CONUS, centered over the Four Corners region which will result in northwest flow over Arkansas. Into the next workweek, the center of the ridge becomes fixated over the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with easterly flow overall for the remainder of the period over Arkansas. At the sfc, a warm front will remain draped near the Arkansas/Missouri border keeping respectable POP chances in the forecast through Friday across the northern half of the state. Into the weekend, this feature will move northward into Missouri and stall as a stationary front across central Missouri, but remain in close enough proximity to warrant decent POP chances across the far northern tier of Arkansas. Into the late weekend/upcoming workweek, this feature is progged to become a cold front and dive back southward into Arkansas by Monday. As this transition occurs, increased POP chances will be noted statewide Sunday into Monday. For the remainder of the workweek or the middle of next week, POP chances are expected to lower slightly, but remain present as a few upper lvl disturbances meander over the state to close out the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect VFR conditions for the forecast period from Thursday morning through Friday morning across all terminals. The only exception will be any area of VCTS that does manage to near or move across a TAF site (most likely either KHRO or KBPK). Low level wind shear will impact the sites of KHRO, KBPK, KLIT, KHOT, and KADF. Surface wind gusts in excess of 20 knots will be possible on Thursday afternoon until Thursday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 95 77 94 75 / 20 20 20 40 Camden AR 96 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 94 78 93 74 / 30 20 30 50 Hot Springs AR 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 97 79 96 78 / 10 10 10 10 Monticello AR 95 77 95 77 / 10 0 10 0 Mount Ida AR 93 77 92 76 / 0 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 94 76 92 73 / 30 30 30 40 Newport AR 96 77 95 76 / 20 20 20 40 Pine Bluff AR 96 77 95 77 / 10 10 10 0 Russellville AR 98 78 96 77 / 20 10 10 10 Searcy AR 96 77 95 75 / 20 10 20 20 Stuttgart AR 96 78 95 78 / 10 10 20 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74  309 FXUS64 KMRX 091102 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 702 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 655 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and evening; the main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning. - A wet pattern sets up Friday and continues through the weekend, which may pose a more widespread flooding threat. - Dry weather returns for the middle of next week with near normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Water vapor shows a shortwave trough located over West TN and the lower OH Valley. This trough will be tracking east through today, and be positioned over East TN by the afternoon. This may result in slightly better coverage of showers/storms than we have had over the past few days. We will continue to have plenty of moisture in the area, with PW in the 1.8-2 inch range. Slow-moving or training cells will pose an isolated flooding threat, and while some gusty winds are possible, they are unlikely to reach severe limits as DCAPE will be limited. As the shortwave trough moves east of our area Thursday evening, a trailing boundary to our north will push southward. The proximity of this boundary along with passing midlevel disturbances will keep showers/storms going into Thursday night despite the loss of heating. A stronger flow in the 850-500 mb layer also develops on Friday, which will bring some better forcing for lift across a larger area. The flow is parallel to the boundary, which will enhance the flooding potential across our northern sections. The presence of the boundary in a very moist environment with passing midlevel disturbances will keep showers and thunderstorms going Friday night and into Saturday. The flooding threat will only increase with this persistent wet pattern, with northern areas having the highest potential. A Flood Watch may be needed with future forecast packages. Neighboring offices have started Flood Watches on Thursday, but for our area, the primary flooding threat for a good portion of the area appears more likely to begin on Friday, so we will hold off at this time. Sunday and Monday a bit uncertain as to whether the front will lift away from the area as a low pressure system tracks along the OH Valley, or if it will remain near our area. The pattern shifts to drier conditions on Tuesday as a large high pressure ridge over the Plains extends east and produces a deep northerly flow across the TN Valley. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few showers and storms are headed into CHA with a TEMPO added in to incorporate this trend. Reductions are currently not anticipated but are still possible. Otherwise, the region will remain VFR for the rest of the day with the main impact being additional showers and storms. PROB30s were maintained, and any places that see rainfall could also see fog development tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 73 90 73 / 40 10 90 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 71 86 71 / 30 30 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 87 70 86 70 / 40 40 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 67 83 67 / 60 40 90 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...BW  348 FXUS64 KOHX 091103 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 603 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 559 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday - Drier conditions expected next week && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Our active pattern will continue for the next few days. With several embedded shortwaves aloft, slow moving boundaries at the surface, and a juicy airmass, the atmosphere is primed to support multiple rounds of torrential rain. This rain will be falling on saturated soils, leading to flash flooding concerns through the weekend. Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday. SPC has highlighted Middle TN as having a marginal risk (level 1/5) for damaging wind gusts Thursday and Friday, but the environment looks more supportive of gusty winds late Thursday night and into Friday. Thursday: A shortwave trough moving through the area tomorrow afternoon will be our main forcing mechanism for convection during the day. Some guidance is showing drier air upstairs, leading to inverted-V soundings and the potential for an isolated damaging wind gust. The CAMs are not in agreement on coverage tomorrow as the HRRR shows fairly minimal coverage while the NAM3k shows scattered storms. Regardless of coverage, any cell will be capable of producing gusty winds and torrential rain that could lead to flooding issues. Thursday night - Friday night: Concern for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding may continue into Thursday night as an increasingly strong southerly LLJ and shortwave trough traverse the Ohio River Valley. Guidance is not in agreement on coverage, but this could support multiple rounds of messy thunderstorm clusters moving across the area through the night and into Friday. Better shear will be available during this period, and PWATs will soar to 2-2.25"+ (greater than 90th percentile). The HRRR is showing a bowing segment to our north and west starting to fall apart by the time it reaches Middle TN late Thursday night with a second round following shortly after and continuing into Friday morning. The NAM3k, on the other hand, keeps us mostly dry through the night with the bulk of the activity staying north in KY. By the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop with greatest chances east of I-65. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Saturday - Sunday: Aloft, a positively tilted trough across the Midwest will transition from an open wave to a closed low that will reside over TN/KY through the weekend. At the surface, a west/east draped boundary will slowly drift south. These features will support additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Monday - Thursday: Our pattern will change a bit with the start of the new week as a broad upper ridge expands over much of the CONUS. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day but overall the pattern looks much drier than this week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms south of I-40 will continue this morning, with additional showers and thunderstorms over the plateau this afternoon. Thunderstorms will approach the northwest part of the area after 5z. MVFR/IFR in any showers and thunderstorms. Light southerly winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 74 90 73 / 30 50 60 80 Clarksville 91 73 89 72 / 20 60 60 80 Crossville 83 68 83 68 / 60 50 80 80 Columbia 90 72 89 72 / 40 30 60 70 Cookeville 85 70 84 70 / 50 60 90 90 Jamestown 84 68 83 68 / 50 60 90 90 Lawrenceburg 88 71 87 71 / 50 30 60 70 Murfreesboro 91 73 90 72 / 50 40 70 80 Waverly 90 73 89 72 / 30 50 50 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cahill LONG TERM....Cahill AVIATION.....Mueller/Seider  081 FXUS63 KTOP 091113 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 613 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening storms continue to move east across the area overnight, eventually pushing east of the area near or just after sunrise. - Low chance (10-15%) for isolated showers/storms to redevelop this afternoon with better chances (30-60%) coming overnight along/south of I-70. - Widely scattered showers/storms may linger through Friday, followed by drying conditions into the weekend. - Near average temperatures hold through the weekend, then gradually warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Zonal flow aloft dominates the Central Plains, and VAD wind profilers early this morning show a subtle perturbation moving through the MO River Valley. The LLJ feeding into the forecast area helped to maintain the leading cluster of storms as it moved from southern NE across northeast KS, producing sporadic marginal severe gusts and brief intense rainfall rates (2-2.5"/hr). The veering jet will continue to push these storms east with storms progged to exit the area entirely around sunrise or shortly after, though the strongest winds and heaviest rain are over at this point. For the rest of today, the first challenge will be how far south an outflow boundary will end up from these storms and whether or not it retreats north as an effective warm front this afternoon. If it does come back further north than anticipated, then temperatures could reach the low 90s as far north as I-70. However, a consensus would keep this boundary closer to I-35 or south. This is where a few isolated storms could develop late this afternoon as the inverted trough axis approaches and provides enough convergence for ascent. Inverted-V soundings suggest strong wind gusts would be possible with any of these storms that may develop. Greater chances for storms come late tonight, mainly after midnight with a line or cluster of storms coming from western KS. It remains uncertain how strong they might still be this far east and how much of the area would be impacted. The LLJ is displaced south with the main synoptic boundary south of the area by that time, but there could be enough elevated instability and shear to support marginal severe gusts with storms along the 850mb front. Instability still looks to decrease with time, leading to weakening storms through the night. CAMs are suggesting an MCV may be left behind Friday morning, leading to widely scattered showers and storms lingering in the area. Depending on how long these persist through the day, clouds and rain could keep temperatures cooler. The synoptic boundary looks to hang around just south of the area Friday into Saturday, and another weak perturbation aloft looks to trigger another round of scattered showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning. This would present a similar setup as tonight with similar storm risks. Once the front finally pushes far enough south to keep dry conditions in our entire area, upper ridging builds across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest early next week. This places us more in easterly flow, which should keep the thermal ridge north of us with slightly lower humidity levels here. So despite temperatures gradually warming through the 90s next week, heat indices may end up staying in the 90s as well. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Morning storms have moved east of terminals. Winds look to turn to the southeast during the morning, then back to the northeast behind an inverted trough axis this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances the rest of the period are too low to include for TOP/FOE, but opted to insert a PROB30 mention for MHK overnight. Otherwise, VFR prevails. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha  962 FXUS64 KCRP 091111 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 611 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 554 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts this week, with peak heat indices between 103-108 degrees. - Medium rain chances Friday into the weekend, with isolated pockets of heavy rainfall and high rainfall accumulations && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A mid-lvl easterly disturbance will progress northwestward toward the area today, passing through the area tonight into Friday. We will remain on the dry side of the wave axis today with only isolated showers and storms expected. Rain chances will there increase late tonight into Friday as the disturbance moves over the area and with it a plume of tropical moisture characterized by PWATs in the 2-2.3 inch range. There is a good signal that storms would focus over the Gulf waters and coastal areas early Friday morning with this focus then gradually progressing inland by the afternoon as the disturbance lifts northwest and the sea breeze develops. Given the aforementioned tropical moisture, increasing synoptic lift, and a deep warm cloud layer suspect isolated higher totals in the 2-3 inch range will be observed (and this is supported by the 00Z CAM suite). That being said 1 hour FFG is > 3 inches essentially area-wide so significant hydro concerns are not anticipated at this time. Although the mid-lvl disturbance will lift north and weaken on Saturday the anomalous moisture plume will remain overhead so another day of scattered storms and locally heavy rainfall can be expected. By Sunday into early next week a very anomalous ridge (nearly 600 dam!) will set up over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest with a number of easterly convectively-enhanced disturbances pivoting westward towards Texas along its southern periphery. These disturbances will likely track along an 850-700mb boundary/convergence zone, creating a zone of active weather Monday through the middle of next week somewhere along the western Gulf. Guidance is not in good agreement on whether this boundary sets up north of the area or over portions of the area so will leave scattered PoPs for now, but it is something to watch as somewhere in the TX/Western LA range will likely see heavy rainfall and training of storms. Temperatures will remain near normal through the period, with some increase in heat indices heading into the weekend as dewpoints creep up with the moisture surge. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility are possible for ALI, CRP, and VCT through 13Z this morning; however, confidence is too low at VCT and CRP to include a TEMPO. Southeast winds will increase again by midday. && .MARINE... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mainly moderate south-southeasterly winds (BF 3-4) will persist through at least Saturday. Some isolated storms can be expected today with scattered storms expected tonight through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 78 91 80 / 10 30 40 20 Victoria 96 77 94 78 / 10 20 40 20 Laredo 97 77 97 78 / 10 10 30 20 Alice 95 75 93 77 / 10 20 40 10 Rockport 91 82 91 83 / 10 30 40 20 Cotulla 98 76 95 77 / 10 10 40 20 Kingsville 92 76 91 78 / 10 20 30 10 Navy Corpus 90 81 90 83 / 20 30 40 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NC/91 AVIATION...LS/77  163 FXUS61 KOKX 091115 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 715 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. Updated for 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and localized flash flood threat during the afternoon and evening both today and Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy today and Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. 2) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... There continues to remain good agreement on Mid-Mississippi River valley closed upper low shearing towards the region later today, with a resultant weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid-Atlantic, and lee/pre-frontal surface trough developing and approaching from the west. These features should be able to provide a trigger/focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across NYC/NJ metro and N&W in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment. Severe threat should be limited in this environment, but can't rule out an isolated damaging pulse wet microburst threat, especially if the lower atmosphere is able to destabilize more than forecast. Environment is more conducive to an isolated flash flood threat with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and potential for briefly back building storms. Higher flash flood threat appears to be across SE PA/S NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Still an isolated flash flood risk is signaled for the NYC/NE NJ metro region in the high res- guidance, depicted thru being on the edge of HREF 10% ensemble prob for 3"/3hr, and HiRes ARW and NSSL WRF indicating max NY/NJ metro neighborhood value of 2 1/2 to 3" in 3/hr in WPC URRD. Given the continued signals in the hi-res guidance, will continue to address in HWO. Diminishing severe/flash flood threat in the late evening in wake of trough. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a stronger cold front approaching the region in the afternoon/evening. Trigger and focus is once again there for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri aft/eve, with an isolated severe/flash flood threat. A slightly better severe threat on Friday aft/eve with 30-35kt deep layer shear profile to complement marginal to locally moderate instability environment. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Flash flood threat looks a bit lower than Thursday with slightly lower PWATS (mid-level drying in wake of Thursday pre-frontal trough) and quicker anticipated storm movement. Flash flood threat will ultimately be contingent on moisture pooling ahead of cold front, storm coverage, and potential SW to NE training along frontal boundary. Hi-res guidance is hinting at a potential for more widespread convective activity as compared to Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate to near seasonable levels today with highs in the middle 80s. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s on Friday, with max heat indices reaching the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the terminals this afternoon. Isolated showers/thunderstorms expected with the best chance being across the NYC terminals this afternoon/evening. Have narrowed the timing from about 19Z - 00Z, but still some uncertainty how early shra/tstms may impact the terminals with some guidance showing as early as 17Z. MVFR or lower possible in any thunderstorm. In addition, TSRA possible again on Friday afternoon, but outside current 30-hr TAF window. Winds will generally be less than 10 kt from the S/SW, increasing to 10-15kts Thursday afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of convection today, especially onset/offset. A few gusts S/SW 15-20kt possible this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Night through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. There is also a low chance for MVFR/IFR across the eastern terminals Thursday night. Saturday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected today and Fri with modest S/SW flow of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into Monday with high pressure building towards and then over the waters. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV/MW AVIATION...DBR MARINE...NV/MW  194 FXUS63 KLMK 091115 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 715 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Risk of severe storms this evening and tomorrow night. There remains a Slight Risk (level 2/5) mainly west of I-65 and a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) to the east. Storms will arrive later this evening from the west and weaken as they move east overnight. Main impact gusty to locally damaging winds. * These storms will have the capability of producing very heavy rain over a short period of time. Widespread 1-2 inches is possible with locally higher. Slow moving storms could produce localized flash flooding. * Flood Watch: additional Rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall are expected Friday through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could be possible with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. * A drier overall pattern looks to take hold for early to middle next week. Look for highs in the upper 80s to near 90. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The main impacts through the short term will be the threat of severe storms with the main focus on the threat later this evening and overnight. There is also a flash flooding threat for the end of the week through the weekend. Highlighting that there is a potential for significant localized flash flooding as we will see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall over areas that are still saturated from previous heavy rainfall the last couple of weeks. Multiple shortwave disturbances and potential MCS/MCV will work across the Ohio Valley for the end of the week through the weekend. At the same time, a sfc boundary currently to our north across the Great Lakes, will slowly work southward and stall by the start of the weekend. This will setup a situation where we will have deep moisture over the region as the multiple waves of showers and storms work along this boundary. SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT: The bulk of the daytime hours today will be mainly dry as we will be between the departing system from last night and the next system coming in from the west later this evening and night. Convective development upstream over the Mid Mississippi Valley will occur later this afternoon then work eastward into western and central KY Thursday evening and continue into early Friday morning. SPC still has most locations along I-64 west of I-65 in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) with areas east from Louisville, Bowling Green to Lexington in Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms. As was mentioned in the previous discussion, deep layer shear for organized convection remains between 20-25kt and we likely have amble MLCAPE as we go into the evening and overnight as some of that instability becomes more elevated. With the combination of forward movement of the convection along with water loading from the high PWAT values around 2 inches the threat of gusty locally damaging winds remains the main threat. As storms work from the west-northwest to the east-southeast late this afternoon and evening the storms are expected to weaken as we lose daytime heating. That is why the Slight Risk is more to the west as it will have better instability to work with from daytime heating. This activity is expected to reach the I-65 corridor and north central KY closer to midnight, which will have lower instability thanks to the loss of daytime heating. As we see more waves of convection along similar boundaries there remains a marginal risk for additional strong to severe storms again on Friday. FLASH FLOODING: As was mentioned above, PWAT values are expected to be near if not above 2" not only tonight but Friday and through the weekend. Add to that, we already have very wet and saturated conditions across southern IN and Kentucky from the multiple round of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms going back the last two weeks. Models continue to advertise that some areas could receive 3-7 inches of rainfall through Friday evening with more showers and thunderstorms capable of producing additional heavy rainfall into the weekend. That is why a Flood Watch is in effect until late Saturday night. With this setup, and multiple waves of heavy rainfall working repeatedly over already saturated ground sets up the potential for significant flooding possibilities going into the weekend. Remain weather aware now and into the weekend, share updated weather information for those who may potentially be most impacted and remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown! when and if you come across flooded roads or areas. By the end of the weekend, the last of the convective waves of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, along with the stalled boundary will push southward and out of the area. This is expected to be followed by sfc high pressure building in from the north to help dry us out. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Forecast trends for the first half of the weekend continue to remain dry and warm as ridging is expected to build in over the region. Highs will build back into the upper 80s to near 90 Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 While VFR remain the main flight category through the forecast there are a few potential impacts that could for a period bring flight categories down to MVFR or even IFR. One of those being the potential for low CIGS or even a period of low VIS, mainly around BWG and other places that saw rain. Potential limiting factor maybe increased clouds and a steady light breeze but there are observations around the region where we are seeing MVFR to potentially IFR VIS already developing. Once any fog or clouds mix out VFR flight conditions will be around through the day as we will be between weather systems. Could see some SCT-BKN clouds between 2500-5000ft but not expected to be too much of a factor. The other potential impact comes towards the end of the period as the next system arrives with heavy rain and thunderstorms. Timing looks to be close to the 04-06z but will be dependent on what forms upstream over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and then when it gets here. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BTN  174 FXUS64 KMAF 091115 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 615 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Low chance (10-20%) of isolated storms over higher terrain areas this afternoon. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms Sunday through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Little change in the short term as mid to upper ridging over the Intermountain West continues to provide warm and dry, fairly uneventful weather. Low (less than 15%) shower/storm chances today and tomorrow afternoon, with the greatest risks being lightning, strong winds, and brief heavy rainfall. Rainfall accumulations are expected to remain below a few tenths of an inch due to low RH and PWATs staying below 1.00". Highs 95F-100F, 100F-105F along the Pecos River and Presidio Valley, and 105F-110F for the Big Bend are forecast. While not unseasonably warm, it is still advised to take proper heat precautions if outdoors, drink plenty of water, and remain out of direct sunlight during the hottest part of the day. Accompanying this persistent warm weather will be lee troughing remaining to the west of the forecast area. This means south/southeast winds increasing to the 15 to 20 mph range each afternoon/evening into the overnight will continue to be the story. Dew point temperatures stay in the 50s and 60s F, mid 40s to lower 50s F Presidio Valley into northern Guadalupes with pronounced south/southeast winds even after winds decrease overnight. This means overnight cooling will continue to be limited, resulting in lows in the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F cooler regions of northern Lea County and adjacent foothills to the Marfa Plateau and Trans Pecos, and 60F-65F for the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos. Along the Rio Grande, lows will continue to remain in the 75F-80F range. An upper air and near surface pattern change will deliver "cooler" temperatures by Saturday and shower/storm chances areawide by late weekend into early next week. More details on these pattern changes can be found in the Long Term Discussion below. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A cooling trend is forecast to take shape across the region beginning Saturday as the upper-level ridge transitions from the Four Corners region into the Central Rockies. Saturday is expected to be the warmest day of the extended forecast period with highs ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s for most locations. Upslope flow and weak disturbances in the flow aloft will create a low chance (10-30%) of isolated storms over the higher terrain. Sunday through early next week, easterly to northeasterly flow aloft will return to the region, accompanied by shortwave impulses rounding the periphery of the ridge. As a result, cooler temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s along with increased rain/storm chances are expected areawide. Medium to long range guidance has Precipitable Water values (PWATs) slightly above the 90th climatological percentile per SPC Sounding Climatology, signaling deep layer moisture with this pattern. Ensemble guidance is in agreement with the upper-level ridge becoming more elongated across portions of the Northern High Plains by mid next week, shifting winds aloft easterly to southeasterly. This pattern again favors daily rain/storm chances with cooler than normal temperatures for mid July standards. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions forecast for terminals throughout the period, although a low (less than 15% chance) of a shower or storm cannot be ruled out at terminals during the afternoon and evening. South/southeast winds increase to 15 to 20 knots from 18Z-23Z before decreasing again by 07Z-10Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 99 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 101 74 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 99 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 98 72 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 92 70 94 69 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 98 71 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 92 63 95 62 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 98 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 97 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 100 73 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...94  110 FXUS65 KBOI 091113 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 513 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry, with breezy afternoon winds through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week with the arrival of monsoon moisture. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 324 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026 A few degrees of cooling with northwest surface winds are expected today behind Wednesday's weak cold front. Hi-res models indicate storm activity this afternoon should remain south of the Idaho border and east of Banner Summit in central Idaho, but outflows up to 40 mph may travel into the SW Idaho Highlands this evening. Beginning Friday, high pressure across the Desert Southwest is forecast to build north into the N Rockies, introducing a rapid onset of heat as south-southwest flow develops over the forecast area. This flow will generate breezy southwest surface winds across much of SE Oregon and the mountains of SW Idaho Friday afternoon. Latest model guidance places lower valley temperatures around 100 degrees, with mountain valleys in the 80s/90s. Temperatures will remain hot on Saturday, with lower valleys peaking in the upper 90s to 105 degrees. Overnight/morning temperatures will also remain warmer than normal, reducing the opportunity for heat-relief and increasing Heat Risk across the Snake Plain and south to the NV border on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 324 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026 Slight cooling is anticipated from west to east on Sunday as a Pacific trough approaches the PNW coast. Temperatures will still remain hot, however, as deep south-southwest flow persists from the ridge dominating to the east. Cloud coverage is forecast to increase Sunday and Monday as mid/high level monsoon moisture makes its way north into the region. Precipitable water values will begin to ramp up significantly by late Monday, reaching 1.00"+ by Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase through mid-week as the influx of moisture continues. While storms may initially be anemic and produce gusty outflows early in the week, storms will evolve into heavy rain producers if PWATs climb near/above 1.00". Max temps will hover at 5-10 degrees above normal through the week. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 512 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026 VFR. Localized terrain obstruction from wildfire smoke. High density altitude due to heat. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts 20-25 kt from KMUO to KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Foothills may be obscured at times due to nearby wildfire smoke. Surface winds: W-N 5-12 kt. Afternoon gusts to 15-20 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Localized visibility reductions in the vicinity of wildfires. Isolated convection over central ID mtns Friday. High density altitude due to heat, esp Saturday. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt Friday through Sunday. Afternoon gusts to 20-30 kt mainly across E Oregon and the higher terrain of SW Idaho. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM....SH  244 FXUS64 KMEG 091117 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 617 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase through Friday. Heat index values will approach 105 degrees on Thursday and Friday for portions of the Mid-South, especially areas along and west of the Mississippi River. The heat will continue into the weekend. - A slow-moving upper-level disturbance will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week. The stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Late evening GOES Water Vapor satellite trends showed a compact upper-level low located over western Kentucky. This upper-level feature was providing larger scale lift for showers and thunderstorms over Middle Tennessee and over portions of southern Arkansas and central Mississippi. Meanwhile, convective activity had ended across the Mid-South with the loss of daytime instability and increasing convective inhibition. Late evening temperatures across the Mid-South were in the 70s. Mainly rainfree conditions are expected across the Mid-South overnight into early Thursday morning. Latest CAMs suggest diurnally based pulse convection on Thursday will be limited in coverage, generally widely scattered to isolated, as weak ridging builds in wake of the departing upper-level low. Strong to damaging wind gusts from wet microbursts and localized heavy rainfall will be the threat for any stronger storms. This activity should quickly wane by early Thursday evening with the loss of daytime instability. Temperatures approaching the mid 90s with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s may result in heat index values approaching or exceeding 105 degrees mostly west of the Mississippi River. A Heat Advisory may be needed if conditions and coverage warrant the issuance of a heat headline. Latest short-term model trends indicate a potential for redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms over southern Missouri early Thursday evening, then spreading east-southeast into the Mid-South overnight into early Friday morning as 850 mb winds around 30 kts may assist in maintaining ongoing convection. Damaging winds will be a threat for areas north of I-40 if any storms can be rooted near the surface. Heavy rainfall will be a threat regardless of whether the storms are surface-based or elevated as precipitable water values will hover around 2 inches (90th percentile for early July). Short-term model trends indicate several shortwaves embedded within northwest flow aloft will move across the Mid-South Friday into a moderate to strongly unstable airmass to produce showers and thunderstorms. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will remain the threats with any stronger storms. This unsettled pattern is expected to persist into the weekend with additional convective chances. We maintain high confidence in the Flood Watch, which remains in effect from late Thursday night into Saturday evening. Long term model trends continue to indicate a strong upper-level ridge building over the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley next week. These trends would lend towards a somewhat drier pattern over the area next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Multiple disturbances within a weak northwest flow will maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Convective coverage may increase tonight as a stronger shortwave approaches the Mississippi River Valley. Given the RAP's more consistent signal for convection after 03Z compared to the drier HRRR, a PROB30 group will be added to the MEM, JBR, and MKL TAFs. Otherwise, outside of any impact from showers or thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail with south to southwest winds of 5- 10 kts. Wind gusts may approach 20 kts near JBR this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 No fire weather concerns are anticipated across the Mid-South through the remainder of the week. Minimum relative humidity is forecast to remain above 40 percent each day with generally light 20-foot winds. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, with the most likely time during the afternoon and early evening hours. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for ARZ009. MO...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for MOZ113-115. MS...None. TN...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for TNZ001>004-019>022-054-055. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...JDS  431 FXUS62 KMFL 091120 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 720 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 719 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors. - Little to no rainfall today; scattered to numerous storms Friday and Saturday, and some could be strong. - Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A general synoptic picture of the eastern CONUS consists of a shortwave/closed low over the MS/TN Valleys, a shortwave off the Northeast US coast, ridging over Florida, and a TUTT over the far southeastern Bahamas. Southeast flow facilitated by the high pressure over the western Atlantic and Florida peninsula will continue to advect a dusty Saharan air mass across the area today which should limit any afternoon thunderstorm potential and lead to mainly clear skies throughout the day. While the drier and dusty air could act to bring down dewpoints if it mixes to the surface, heat index values will still climb into the 105-110 degree range as the southeast flow should still continue to advect moisture at the lower levels. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for all of South Florida today. Take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat. The departure of this Saharan air mass is expected on Friday and subsequently, rain chances will increase with thunderstorms developing mainly across interior and Southwest Florida Friday afternoon. PWATs climb from the 1.3-1.5 inch range to the 1.8-2 inch range by Friday evening which is near normal for early July. The aforementioned TUTT will be at our doorstep by late Friday which could also act to enhance the coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms enhanced divergence aloft associated with the TUTT will remain to the south of the area and it will also be weakening as it approaches from the Southeast. With enhanced low level moisture, another very hot day is expected on Friday with heat index values reaching the 105-110 degree range. Another heat advisory is probable. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The shortwave across the central CONUS will continue to drift east and elongate as it slowly phases in with the northern stream as a shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. Simultaneously, the aforementioned TUTT will continue to progress just south of the region heading into the weekend. High pressure remains across the western Atlantic which will maintain southeasterly flow through the weekend and will advect an additional plume of Saharan dust across the area by mid-weekend. Ahead of the arrival of drier air, scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across interior and Southwest Florida on Saturday afternoon. PWATs begin to drop back into the 1.3-1.4 inch range on Sunday and Monday which should limit the convective potential towards the end of the weekend into early next week. Maximum rain chances will drop into the 20-40% through Wednesday. Hot conditions are expected to continue through the period, especially for locations that don't receive relief from afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid-upper 90s each afternoon with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees. Additional head advisories will be likely through the remainder of the weekend and into the upcoming work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 719 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 With drier air across the region today, thunderstorms are not expected in the vicinity of Southeast Florida terminals - and thus VFR will prevail. However, enough moisture convergence and instability late this afternoon will still allow for a 30% chance of a thunderstorm in the vicinity of APF. As moisture rebounds, thunderstorm chances will again increase tomorrow beginning in the mid-to-late morning time-frame for east coast terminals before thunderstorms transition inland and towards the west coast by the afternoon. Higher rain chances (and thus a greater chance for impacts) will continue through Saturday before some drier air late in the weekend and into early next week again reduces the potential for impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Winds and seas will increase a bit through the remainder of the week as the western edge of high pressure spreads across the SW Atlantic and SE Gulf. Showers and storms are unlikely today, but rain chances will increase Friday into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 82 93 81 / 10 10 30 20 West Kendall 94 79 93 79 / 10 10 40 20 Opa-Locka 95 82 94 81 / 10 10 30 20 Homestead 93 81 93 80 / 10 10 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 93 83 92 82 / 10 0 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 92 82 92 81 / 0 0 20 20 Pembroke Pines 96 83 95 82 / 10 0 30 20 West Palm Beach 93 81 92 80 / 0 0 30 10 Boca Raton 91 82 91 81 / 0 0 30 20 Naples 96 78 95 78 / 20 10 70 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...Flannery  442 FXUS63 KDLH 091120 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures today and Friday before a notable warm up through the weekend with increasing humidity. Potentially dangerous heat and humidity is possible Sunday, Monday, and into early next week. - Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday. An isolated thunderstorm Friday afternoon and evening could be strong with brief gusty winds and small hail. - Minimal precipitation in the extended forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A fairly unremarkable summer day is in store for today, as surface high pressure meanders across the region. We could see some patchy dense fog this morning, especially near Lake Superior, which should burn off with visibility improving through the morning. Afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Friday, a cold front from a weak surface low to our north is expected to pass from northwest to southeast through the day. We could see some precipitation in north-central Minnesota as early as Friday morning with this disturbance, if overnight convection in the Dakotas can hold itself together. Otherwise, generally expected some widespread scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to develop through the day, peaking in coverage and intensity Friday afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a possible 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE with 30-40kts of bulk shear. If storms are able to develop, there's a chance that some of them could be on the spunkier side for north-central and NE MN bringing brief gusty winds, a quick downpour, small hail, and frequent lightning. Anyone with outdoor plans should keep an eye to the sky Friday. As that disturbance keeping trucking south and east, it may be able to spur a little showery activity through the day Saturday for the North Shore and NW WI, but chances are fairly low (15-25%) at this time. Sunday and into next week, models are in very good agreement that a robust upper level high will move into the central CONUS which should drive the heat and humidity up across the Northland. Model guidance is suggesting widespread temperatures in the 80s with several days of widespread 90s possible Sunday and Monday. This could come along with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s. Heat headlines may be needed. With this set-up, any precipitation chances would likely stem from ridge-running disturbances that can bend the flow a bit at the northern edge of the upper level high to push a disturbance through. Global model guidance suggests that the next best chance for that would be sometime early to mid next week, maybe in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, but confidence, and PoPs, are low. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the TAF period. Any lingering patchy fog near BRD and HYR should burn off quickly through this morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A light onshore lake breeze is expected today, with some afternoon gusts of 10-15 knots possible for the Twin Ports and Apostle Islands to Chequamegon Bay. While no headlines are expected, small craft users shouldn't be surprised to have a little northeast chop to work with (less than 1 foot) this afternoon, which should die down quickly into the evening. Widespread marine dense fog is expected this morning, but model guidance is in decent agreement that it should pull back away from the coasts into the open water during the day. It may return once again overnight into Friday morning. A mostly light northeast wind is expected across Western Lake Superior Friday, which will once again lead to some less-than-one-foot chop in the afternoon, but nothing hazardous. Some rain showers and thunderstorms may be able to develop Friday afternoon and evening, moving from northwest to southeast across the lake. An isolated thunderstorm or two could become strong with brief gusty winds, a quick downpour, small hail, and frequent lightning. Very isolated shower and thunderstorm development is possible again Saturday, but less likely than Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light northerly winds expected today with no precipitation. Afternoon dewpoints have trended downwards with high temperatures in the low 80s, making for a dry day today. Afternoon RH of 25-40% is expected across the Northland, with some locally especially dry spots near the Canadian border dropping below 25%. Friday, southerly winds return with some gusts of 10-15mph possible in the afternoon. This should bring with it some improved humidity (afternoon RH 35- 50%) and a 20-40% chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Northland, most likely Friday afternoon and evening. Any accumulations would be fairly light, a couple hundredths to a couple tenths. Temperatures warm through the weekend, but dewpoints in the 60s remain, so afternoon RH should fairly consistently drop into the 35-45% range, with the chance for some particularly dry spots to reach 30%. Some breezier southwest winds are possible Sunday for north-central Minnesota. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121- 140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens  414 FXUS64 KJAN 091120 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels (limited to elevated) of heat will return Thursday and persist into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thursday through next Wednesday: Thursday through Friday: Sub-tropical ridging will remain over the region, continuing dangerous heat concerns for Thursday and Friday. Afternoon rainfall/convection will be possible along/east of I-55 Thursday then diminishing by Friday. A pattern change beginning Friday will bring rain chances through the rest of the extended forecast. Saturday through Wednesday: A potent upper-lvl ridge will build and traverse over the Northern Plains, resulting in downstream troughing over the Mid-MS Valley. The trough will slowly push a frontal boundary towards the southeast through the weekend and into next week. As the boundary progress towards the area, rain chances (70-85%) will be greatest on Sunday and Monday. Rain will stick around through mid-week as the boundary gradually moves over the area. With the ongoing rain potential, heat relief is expected as heat indices drop below 105 degrees. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Overall, VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites through this 12Z forecast. Isolated to scattered convection this afternoon and evening could result in a brief degradation of both ceilings and visibilities at sites where observed, mainly east of the Interstate 55 corridor, i.e. KGTR, KMEI, KPIB, & KHBG. Winds will increase from the southwest between 5-10 knots by late this morning, and continue as such through the afternoon hours. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 93 74 94 75 / 10 10 10 10 Meridian 93 74 94 75 / 30 10 10 10 Vicksburg 94 76 94 76 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 94 75 95 75 / 20 10 20 10 Natchez 94 74 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 94 76 94 77 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 94 75 95 76 / 30 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19  407 FXUS64 KMOB 091120 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. - A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday night through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Forecast remains on track. MM/25 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The upper trough extending from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley will gradually deamplify as it moves slowly eastward through tonight. An upper ridge over Florida, a small portion of the southeast states, and the eastern Gulf will expand northward on Friday to fill the void as a series of weak shortwaves pass over the Ohio Valley. The upper ridge will get nudged southward over the weekend as a stronger positively tilted upper trough exits the Middle Mississippi Valley and moves slowly southeastward, eventually settling along to the Eastern Seaboard to the Northern Gulf as a large upper high builds over the central CONUS. The combination of the upper trough and a weak surface low pressure area reflected in the lower levels over our region will result in an erratic light wind flow pattern at multiple levels, but there is still a small chance of a backdoor cool front slipping into our area from the northeast late Monday night. The diurnal pattern continues through the near term with a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon, followed by a 20-40% chance on Friday as seabreezes push inland. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with scattered to numerous coverage on Saturday and numerous to widespread coverage on Sunday. Looking into early next workweek, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday followed by numerous coverage on Tuesday. As with all summertime convection, instances of stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty surface winds and locally heavy downpours can be expected. High temperatures the rest of the week will average just above normal, ranging from 90-95 degrees. Lows will be about 4 to 9 degrees above normal, with middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 73 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with isolated short duration instances as high as 110 degrees. Cooler high temperatures will occur through the first half of next week with the increase in cloud coverage an rain chances. /22 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR flight category continues to prevail across the region today. Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible again this afternoon, mainly over interior areas, temporarily reducing flight category at times. Winds out of the south to southwest this morning less than 5 knots strengthen to 5 to 10 knots by late morning into the afternoon hours. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A light to occasionally moderate generally southerly flow prevails through Saturday, becoming southwesterly Sunday and westerly by early next week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet by the weekend. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 76 92 76 / 10 10 40 10 Pensacola 92 81 92 80 / 20 20 30 0 Destin 89 82 89 81 / 20 10 20 0 Evergreen 93 73 92 73 / 30 2040 10 Waynesboro 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 20 10 Camden 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 Crestview 93 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  450 FXUS65 KGJT 091120 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 520 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will shift northward tomorrow with areas north of highway 50 favored. - Localized critical fire weather conditions favor southeast UT and southwest CO tomorrow afternoon. - Excessive heat watch has been issued for Saturday and Sunday afternoon for near record temperatures in the lower valleys of eastern Utah and western Colorado. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1056 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure building over the Desert Southwest will move/build to the northeast over eastern Utah and Western Colorado by Sunday and expand east over the Plains going into next week. An upper level shortwave with a weak jet streak supporting it is moving across the region tonight is keeping isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms going mostly to the north of I-70, but there are a few moving through the central areas. These storms aren't producing much in the way of precip, but can kick out some gusts of 40-50 mph. Look for these storms to diminish through the overnight into the morning, but will redevelop around noon with diurnal heating. There will be few storms tomorrow than we had today and they will stay mostly to the north and will be ending by early evening due to subsidence under the high pressure pushing up from the southwest. With the high pressure moving into the region, near normal temperatures across the region tomorrow will warm to about five degrees above normal Friday, ten degrees above normal Saturday, and near record 15 degrees above normal Sunday. With high pressure over the region, the hot dry conditions will continue, but winds will be light to non existent bringing an end to the critical fire weather conditions. The high pressure does seem to pull moisture around it up into the Great Basin with models indicating a little moisture may be able to slip into the region under the high. This would generate afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but it too early to say how much moisture will make it into the region. Stay tuned for updates. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 517 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening, favoring northern portions of the forecast area. Even so, a few could pop over the San Juans. Included PROB30 groups for this convection at KASE and KEGE sites this afternoon. Some gusty afternoon winds are also anticipated, reaching 20 to 25 kts. Higher gusts will be possible under and near any convection. Midlevel clouds are also expected thought flight conditions will remain VFR. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ001-002-005>008-011-014-020>023. UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ022-024-027-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...DB AVIATION...TGJT  604 FXUS63 KGID 091123 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 623 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - After morning showers/storms dissipate, dry conditions are expected through at least early evening. - Weakening storms arrive from the west late this evening. There is a low chance (5%) for a few strong to marginally severe wind. - Isolated thunderstorms remain possible on Friday, but most areas will stay dry and severe weather is unlikely. - Mostly dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures are expected through the weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 As of early this morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to develop east of Highway 281, with an additional cluster of storms between Lexington and North Platte slowly moving eastward. This convection has been more pesky than anticipated, but CAMs still suggest that it will mostly dissipate by around sunrise. That said, recent runs of the HRRR do suggest potential for an isolated storm or two to persist through at least mid-morning. At any rate, severe weather remains unlikely with this activity. After this activity clears, dry conditions are expected for the rest of the daytime (and most of the evening as well). Behind the cold front that moved through Wednesday evening, temperatures are expected to be a solid 5-10 degrees cooler than with a light northeasterly wind. Convection should blossom over the Nebraska panhandle down into eastern Colorado this afternoon and evening, gradually moving eastward with time. CAMs suggest this could reach our western zones by around 10pm, but should be on a weakening trend as it does so. Nevertheless, some marginally severe winds (and possibly some smaller hail) are possible, mainly in portions of northern Kansas and west of Highway 183 in Nebraska. Friday looks to remain mostly dry, although an isolated storm or two remains possible, possibly aided by convective outflow from the previous night. Convective parameters could maybe support a few strong storms, but the overall threat for severe weather is low. Dry and gradually warmer weather is still on tap for the weekend and into next week. That said, the timing of the potentially warmest days continues to shift later into the week, and the most intense could actually end up remaining to our north. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight and Thursday... A cold front, currently draped across northern Nebraska, will later be expected to dip southward into much of south central Nebraska this evening and later on into north central Kansas overnight. A few storms will be expected to fire up along this front between mainly 6PM and 3AM as the front drifts southward. In addition, a cluster of scattered storms (recently observed cumulus expanding across northeast Colorado) will later be expected to roll in from off the High Plains. These storms will possibly merge with activity developing along the cold front, expanding the coverage of and extending the time of lingering storms through the early morning hours of Thursday. The latest high-resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) guidance has recently backed precipitation potential off by around 20% with a now a more broad range forecast of 30-70% PoPs across the area for tonight. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST models have come in a bit drier (more scattered storm coverage) and continue to diverge on when and where the best storm potential will come. The HRRR is more aggressive with the earlier convection occurring along the cold front between mainly 5PM and midnight. As result, the HRRR keeps the bulk of the storms mainly north of I-80. The NAMNEST on the other hand is more aggressive with theovernight convection rolling in from the high plains. As result, it keeps a majority of the storms concentrated south of I-80 and later in the night (2-8AM). In reality, the best scenario tonight would likely be a combination of the two scenarios where a few storms do initially form along the front and approach later in the night from the west. Given somewhat favorable conditions for thunderstorm maintenance (1,500-2,5000J/kg of MUCAPE with 25-40kts of bulk shear), it is more than reasonable to suspect that a few of these storms would be able to take on some strong to severe characteristics. Though hail up to the size of half dollars may be possible, the hail threat will mainly fall within the initial storms firing up along the front. The main severe threat tonight, however, will likely be the potential for gusty winds up to near 70MPH, especially within storms racing in from the west. The main uncertainty for severe weather this evening will be if the storms firing along the front earlier in the evening/night inhibit the severe potential for the later storms coming in from the west. There is somewhat of a concern if the convection along the front may undercut the severe threat overnight to a degree, though the presence of a steady 20-30kts low-level jet across north central Kansas may also play a small role. In addition, the merging of these two storms clusters could create an expansive area of heavy downpours. The possibility of 1" per hour rainfall rates (1.5-1.8" PWAT values) mixed in with the potential for multiple waves of thunderstorm activity could bring meaningful precipitation amounts (up to 1-2+") to a handful of locations (10- 20% of the coverage area). The Weather Prediction Center has also introduced a slight risk of excessive rainfall (15-40% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point) to the full area. Given the overall decrease in expected storm coverage, the flash flood potential has also overall decreased some as well. Beyond the precipitation chances tonight, the light to steady surface winds (5-15MPH) will back from the southerly directions this afternoon to an easterly one overnight. Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will drop highs to the mid 80s to low 90s for Thursday. Though the potential for severe weather returns Thursday night (Marginal risk for western and southern portions of the area), the overall storm coverage may likely be more isolated and concentrated towards far west/south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A few storms, again racing out from off the High Plains just after 10PM, will have to potential to clip a few western/southern portions of the area. These storms, given the time of night, will probably be on a downward trend, leading us to speculate that the severe threat should mostly be more isolated rather than widespread. Friday into Next Week... Though one final low-end chance for storms does lie Friday night (10- 30% chances), the main story Friday into next week will be the heat. Highs Friday through the middle of next week will begin a gradual climb from the mid to upper 80s to the low to mid 90s. This warm up will come as a massive ridge is favored to form across much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions starting on Saturday. This ridging pattern is in good agreement within the long-range ensembles to stick around for most if not all of next week (>80% confidence). The presence of this massive ridge should bring warm, subsiding air to the region that will work to thwart off most of the precipitation potential next week. (The LREF {Long Range Ensemble Forecast} only shows a 10-40% chance for at least 0.1" of precipitation through the week). The main uncertainty at this time will be for how substantialthe warmup will become (will highs next week peak in the upper 90s or low 100s?). What does look almost certain will be the presence of a streak of 90+ degree days. The only forecast element that could keep such a streak from taking place would be from a rogue daytime thunderstorm or excessive cloud cover that manages to peak in (not very likely to occur underneath such pattern). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: There is a brief window for MVFR stratus to develop at GRI/EAR over the next few hours (through around 15Z). Skies then clear out into this afternoon and evening. Scattered thunderstorms arrive from the west late this evening, but will be on a weakening trend. Therefore a PROB30 group was added to EAR, but left out of GRI for now. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Mangels  557 FXUS63 KILX 091122 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 622 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Damaging Wind Threat (This Afternoon - Friday): Scattered afternoon thunderstorms bring a chance of localized 60-mph damaging wind gusts across central and southeast Illinois. - Localized Flash Flooding (Tonight - Weekend): Heavy, torrential downpours bring a chance of localized flash flooding with rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches, centered primarily across southeast Illinois. - Heat Returns (Next Week): There is increasing confidence in a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions that grip the area starting Monday, July 13. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .Synopsis... An active, mesoscale-driven summer pattern is unfolding across the region today, characterized by high convective uncertainty but a conditional threat for both isolated severe weather and localized flash flooding. High-amplitude ridging takes over by early next week, signaling a transition toward a much hotter and drier regime. .Today and Tonight... Early morning observations track a pair of weakening Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) upstream, situated over eastern Iowa and eastern Kansas. Guidance generally agrees that convective- enhanced mid-level shortwaves (MCVs) tied to these systems will shift east-southeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon, dragging a surface cold front along with them. Short- term models diverge significantly, however, regarding afternoon convective initiation near the decaying MCVs and how far south the surface front will progress. In the capped scenario, depicted by the HRRR and RAP, a stable layer will keep the environment weakly capped through the afternoon, suppressing widespread storms over central Illinois and shifting the primary axis of uncapped instability toward southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (south of Interstate 70) through late afternoon. Conversely, a competing narrative illustrated by the NSSL WRF and ARW offer a more uncapped and moderately unstable environment ahead of the front and beneath the MCV. If this more aggressive camp verifies, 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE will foster more widespread convective coverage across central Illinois. Although deep-layer flow remains modest, modeled soundings reveal low-level inverted-V profiles and substantial dry-air entrainment for precipitation loading. This indicates a localized threat for damaging winds with any robust updrafts that can mature. Ultimately, the verification of these scenarios might depend on morning cloud cover trends over central Illinois; a persistent cirrus shield would greatly limit afternoon thunderstorm development. Regarding the overnight hydro potential, model solutions remain split on the front's evening position, which directly impacts how far north the low-level jet (LLJ) axis will extend overnight. Taking an ensemble approach, the HREF stalls the surface boundary near the Interstate 72 corridor tonight, keeping the core of the LLJ over far southern Illinois while its northern edge brushes Interstate 70. If the HREF solution verifies, the threat for flash flooding will remain confined to far southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. On the other hand, coarser deterministic guidance like the NAM and GFS drives the LLJ core much farther north, aligning it closely with Interstate 70. If these coarser models prove correct, a heightened hydrological threat will emerge for the area, with localized rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches through Friday morning. .Friday through the Weekend... Forecast uncertainty persists through the weekend, heavily driven by the evolution and intensity of upstream nocturnal convection and how it alters the background shortwave energy and front's position over central Illinois on Friday and Saturday. This typical MCV-season setup is notoriously difficult for convective-allowing models (CAMs) to resolve given the weak synoptic forcing. Friday presents a similar challenge to today, with a decaying MCV tracking from Missouri into Illinois by afternoon. Should the boundary layer destabilize optimally, scattered downbursts capable of severe wind gusts will become a concern again. Rain chances beyond Friday depend heavily on the strength of this convective-augmented shortwave. Progressive solutions, such as the ECMWF and its EPS ensemble, suggest a weaker open wave that pushes the front well south, effectively ending rain chances by Friday night. Meanwhile, the GFS and GEFS show a stronger closed wave that cuts off and lingers over southern Illinois, keeping daily shower and storm chances active through the weekend. At this point, both outcomes are equally plausible. Aside from the isolated severe wind risk, localized flash flooding driven by highly efficient warm-rain processes is a notable concern, as precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast to exceed 2.0 inches (above the 90th percentile for July). Consequently, training and back-building convective cells capable of torrential rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour must be monitored closely along any stalled boundary. .Extended Outlook... Once the stalled boundary dissipates or pushes south by late weekend, long-range model guidance shows excellent agreement on the rapid expansion of a subtropical ridge across the central United States. Medium-range ensembles (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) consistently project an anomalous upper-level high centering over the Central Plains between July 13 and July 16. Sensible weather conditions across central Illinois during this extended timeframe will depend significantly on the exact longitudinal placement of the ridge core. A more western orientation would keep the local area under active northwest flow aloft, opening the door for periodic ridge-riding MCSs that would cap afternoon temperatures through persistent cloud cover and convective debris. Conversely, an eastern orientation shifts the ridge axis further east directly into the Corn Belt, allowing a regime of hot and dry weather to quickly manifest by mid-July. Recent ensemble guidance trends continue to favor this latter, eastward-shifting scenario, indicating an increasing likelihood of building heat and dry conditions heading into the middle of the month. Unlike our last spell of hot weather, dewpoints look to be somewhat suppressed beneath this heat dome, as the Gulf remains closed. The net effect will be hotter ambient temperatures (low to mid 90s), but lower heat index values (around 100F or less). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 536 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An approaching anvil will penetrate the regional terminals this morning. Despite the increased high clouds, VFR conditions are forecast to persist through much of the afternoon hours. The brief exception comes between 20z-01z when scattered thunderstorms are a possibility. Confidence remains low enough to maintain the PROB30 mention for TSRA. Storm trends will be monitored and adjustments will be made as necessary. By late tonight, a weak cold front will stall over the region, providing the impetus for low stratus or patchy fog overnight into Friday morning. MVFR to occasionally IFR condtions are forecast late in this TAF cycle. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...MJA  594 FXUS63 KSGF 091123 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 623 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 30-40% chance for storms Thursday, and 40-70% chance Thursday night. Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes. - Moderate HeatRisk Thursday and Friday, but cloud cover and rain chances limit confidence in excessive heat occurring. - 40-75% rain chances continue into the weekend with potential for, yet low confidence in locations of, severe and flooding risks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 We're beginning the night with clear skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly winds have picked up some speed since last night and are currently up to 10-15 mph. An MCV and associated convection is currently making its way across eastern Nebraska and Kansas. It is quickly losing steam as instability drops off and the nocturnal inversion sets in. It is expected to continue weakening as it begins to impact the SGF CWA in the next few hours. Of course, the cloud cover, outflow boundaries, and overall impact on the environment of this early morning activity will likely have implications on the severe round of storms we are expecting later today. Though reinitiation along the trailing boundary is expected this afternoon, CAMs differ in both the timing and location of this development. Some models indicate redevelopment later and farther east than others due to their expectation of a more robust/longer- lasting area/period of cool stable air from the morning convection. The faster the morning activity and its associated cloud cover dissipate, the earlier we may see thunderstorms this afternoon. The early end of the window appears to be around 3-4 PM with most CAMs firing redevelopment by 6-7 PM. Storms appear to form along one or two semi-linear axes of instability/convergence and sweep through the CWA from northwest to southeast. Storms look to clear the southeast CWA boundary by somewhere in the 12-3 AM timeframe. With direct support from the LLJ, damaging winds will be the primary threat with these storms, especially in more organized linear and bowing segments. The hail risk appears to be more limited with the more robust deep-layer shear remaining in small pockets rather than becoming widespread. Hodographs are short, and storms will likely collapse on themselves before they become tall enough to deliver much in the way of hail. With pockets of better shear, though, the tallest storms may be able to produce a few larger hailstones up to the size of a quarter at most. Additionally, there is a low, conditional risk for weak tornadoes and waterspouts. The storm activity would need to sufficiently modify the environment to increase the low-level shear and moisture content, which is of course difficult to predict on the storm scale. For these reasons, the damaging wind threat largely overshadows the hail and tornado threat. Precipitable water values in forecast soundings are impressive, up to 2-2.5", which approaches and even exceeds the climatological max/record in the SPC sounding database. Plenty of instability and the potential for training, along with these high PW values, have prompted a Slight risk for excessive rainfall from SPC. While widespread totals are likely to remain below 0.5 inches, areas that experience the most mature storms and especially training storms may receive 3+ inches of rain in a short time period. One hour FFG ranges from 1.75"-3.00", and this environment will supportthe potential for 1-3"/hr rain rates. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The boundary responsible for today's mess is progged to stall out across the Ozarks for a couple of days, allowing widespread rain chances up to ~60% through Saturday with lingering precipitation into Sunday. With not much to move or modify things, marginal chances for severe thunderstorms will underlay the PoPs each day. Of course, with FFG likely being met in some places with just the first day in this series of wet days, flash flooding will continue to be a threat with additional rain through the weekend. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks reflect this. The good news is that the precipitation activity will quell the heat for several days, and highs will largely remain in the upper 80s through early next week. However, a signal for a return to uncomfortable heat in the day 8-14 timeframe does exist. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An area of thunderstorms this morning will most likely stay north of the TAF sites but will be close enough to SGF that a VCTS may be needed. Otherwise additional storm potential will exist later today and tonight however confidence is low in locations. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest. Low level wind shear is likely early this morning and again tonight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Burchfield  558 FXUS63 KUNR 091122 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 522 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Unsettled through Thursday as a series of disturbances move through the region -Sufficient moisture and shear is in place to support a few strong to severe storms -Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Convection continues this evening across portions of northeastern Wyoming, northwestern South Dakota, and southwestern South Dakota. The severe threat has largely ended. No major changes to the forecast. Meager westerly flow coupled with weak large-scale ascent will limit overall coverage and a more widespread severe threat. Expect convection initiation on the Black Hills after 1200-1300 Thursday afternoon, where marginal effective bulk shear will be in place (~25-30 knots). A few strong to severe storms are possible; large hail is a threat with any supercellular structures that can sustain themselves. Similar to the past few days, up to golf ball sized hail are possible with the strongest transient single cells. Beyond the severe threat tomorrow, building heat will become the dominant weather story along with worsening fire weather conditions through the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Tuesday) Issued at 1103 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impulse filled westerly flow remains in place over the FA. Daily chances for thunderstorms can be expected with strong to severe storms possible at times, through Thursday. Weak impulse will advect through the SW third this afternoon and support TS clusters. Ample LL moisture in place combined with sufficient deep layer shear will support a few strong to severe storms, with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, mainly INVOF of the Black Hills. Given ML CAPE of 1-2 KJ/KG, deep bulk layer shear of 35 to 40 knots expect isolated supercells to be possible, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Storms will carry SE across the SW FA through the evening. More storms are expected Thur as sufficient LL moisture will be in place with weak stability and another impulse. Best chances for storms will be in the afternoon/evening. Similar CAPE/shear parameters will be in place to again support a few strong to severe storms, esp over the SW third. Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend, with dry and hot conds expected. Hot temps around 35C at h85 with close to 6000m H5 heights over WY, will offer record to near record highs well into the 100s with some areas seeing readings around 110 on portions of the Plains, esp Sunday and Monday. However, given how dry the BL will be with dewpoints falling into the 20s in the west to the 50s east, apparent T's will only top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s, highest on the SD Plains, supporting adv level numbers. Ridge begins to retrograde the middle of next week, with storm chances returning as the active northern periphery of the ridge settles back south. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued At 520 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Storms are expected to develop over northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota around 09/18z and lasting into the evening. Hail, frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic winds can be expected with any stronger convective cores. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions also expected around any heavier precipitation cores. Outside of thunderstorms, expected VFR conditions through the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SE DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...Dye  645 FXUS64 KLUB 091124 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Daily thunderstorm chances expected Thursday through Tuesday of next week with the greatest potential Saturday and Sunday. - Hot temperatures prevail through Saturday before a slight cool down expected early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current radar imager shows a weak outflow boundary just entering northwest Parmer County. This outflow will bring some breezy winds around 25 to 30 mph to northwestern zones. However, the boundary seems to be weakening quickly. Therefore, this boundary is not expected to make it very far through the forecast area. Small, short- lived showers have been developing along the boundary as it moved across eastern NM. However, in it's weakened state, chances for this will be low. Otherwise, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 70s to lower 80s across southern Rolling Plains. Thursday will be hot with slight thunderstorm chances across the southern Texas Panhandle. Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging dominating southwestern CONUS including much of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. The upper ridging is expected to gradually retreat west through the day, however the edge will still clip our CWA bringing northwesterly flow aloft. Thickness increases due to the upper ridging will warm temperatures a couple degrees with highs in the upper 90s on the Caprock to just below Heat Advisory level off the Caprock. Surface winds will start off the day from the southwest through the early afternoon before shifting to the southeast later in the day. A very similar thunderstorm set up as today is expected Thursday evening. Southeasterly surface upslope flow will result in thunderstorms developing across higher terrain in eastern NM. Northwesterly flow aloft will help in the storms tracking southeast to our forecast area. Models have see-sawed with how far these storms make it into our forecast area the past couple of forecasts. The greatest chances will be across the far southern Texas Panhandle, however cannot rule out these storms leaking into the northern South Plains. Severe storm potential is low with these storms. At most we will see rain showers with some breezy winds. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday will be a rinse and repeat of Thursday with hot temperatures and thunderstorm chances across northwestern zones of the CWA. Upper ridging will continue to dominate across southwestern CONUS as a broad upper trough begins to develop across eastern CONUS. With the forecast area sitting between the two upper disturbances, northwesterly flow will prevail aloft. Southeasterly surface flow will result in thunderstorms developing across higher terrain in eastern NM once again. Northwesterly upper flow will give the push these storms need to track southeast into our CWA. Thunderstorms are expected across the far southern Texas Panhandle with a low chance of expanding into the northern South Plains. Severe potential is low with these storms, however could see some gusty winds and outflows. Hot temperatures with highs in the 90s to triple digits continue Friday and Saturday. We will see a slight cool down beginning Sunday that is expected to continue through at least mid-week. Multiple upper shortwaves passing everyday will continue daily thunderstorm chances. Models indicate a weak front will approach the forecast area early next week possibly pushing the moist air to the south of the CWA effectively cutting short the daily thunderstorm chances. The current NBM keeps precipitation chances through Tuesday, however could see changes to future forecasts as the NBM catches up to the progression of the weak front. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR and breezy southerly winds will continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...19  648 FXUS65 KFGZ 091125 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 425 AM MST Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...For most, mainly hot and dry conditions are expected through the end of this week. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue over the White Mountain region Thursday and Friday. Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up over this weekend and into next week, with storm activity pushing back west and north and becoming more frequent. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and then Glen Canyon through at least Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...Changes in steering flow and the influx of drier boundary layer air over the northern and western zones will lead to fairly quiet and hot conditions over the next 2 or 3 days. These changes are bring driven by a westward relocation and flattening of the ridge that is currently underway. Higher moisture values persist over western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, meaning the White Mountains will not be fully overcome by these changes and convection will continue in this area. Most other locations will not see any convection for Thursday and Friday, perhaps even Saturday. Over the weekend and into next week, the ridge recenters to our northeast and strengthens dramatically. This will open the door for the moisture pool that is already in place and Monsoon 2026 will begin in earnest by Sunday or Monday. Due to the strength of this ridge, any location that does not see rainfall or enhanced cloud cover will still be quite warm, even for this time of year. EHW products for the Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon will persist through at least Saturday as a result. This is not to say that other lower elevation locations will not be uncomfortable at times, but overnight recovery and less potential for outdoor activity will temper the need for additional products. By early next week, the aforementioned Monsoon 2026 should keep most locations at least 5-10 degrees cooler, likely eliminating the need for heat products. && .AVIATION...Thursday 09/12Z through Friday 10/12Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA from 19Z-02Z INVOF the White Mountains. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25kts, light overnight. OUTLOOK...Friday 10/12Z through Sunday 12/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA INVOF the White Mountains for Friday, spreading a bit further west and north on Saturday. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20kts Friday, light and variable for Saturday. Winds light overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Most areas will be hot and dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over the White Mountain region each afternoon, but convection outside of east-central Arizona is unlikely. Saturday through Monday...Remaining hot, with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday, then pushing west and north and becoming more frequent Sunday and Monday. Wetting rains are likely from convection by Sunday and Monday. Generally light and variable winds Saturday, remaining light, 5 to 15 mph, but trending southerly for Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM MST Saturday until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ005. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006 below 4000 feet. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  739 FXUS63 KMQT 091127 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 727 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patches of dense fog will linger this morning, potentially impacting the morning commute. - A warming trend is forecast as high temperatures increase daily through at least Monday. Highs around 90 are becoming more likely Sunday into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The going forecast remains on track this morning. While remnant showers linger in the southern to southeastern UP this morning, the main weather impact of the morning will be patchy dense fog. Unfortunately, remnant high cloud cover remains over half of the UP, so satellite investigation of fog is limited somewhat. What does show on GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics is a mid-level cloud deck over the far west and patches of low stratus/fog for the Keweenaw Peninsula, with the CMX METAR showing 1/4SM visby to verify the density. Other METAR reports around the UP have shown some fogginess but the consistency has been tough to come by, so will hold off on any headlines for now. Once the morning fog clears, benign weather takes hold of the region as ridging gradually builds over the Upper Midwest Friday through Monday morning. By Monday, LREF 500mb height reaches the 99th percentile of climatology, and the building atmospheric thickness (as well as efficient diurnal heating with high surface pressure leading to clear skies) will allow temperatures to slowly climb. The LREF, which can sometimes run cool on high temp forecasts, is already calling for up to 75% chances of breaking 90 degrees on Monday for much of the interior UP. With LREF mean dew points in the 60s on Monday, heat indices into the triple digits will be in play (NBM mean apparent temperature does reach 100 in a few spots Monday), though there is enough moving parts in the setup to cause confidence in the forecast to be low. Confidence in the forecast deteriorates further for Tuesday and beyond as spread in how ensemble members resolve the strength and placement of a potential kicking trough over the Pacific Northwest. Should the trough not be strong enough or take a suboptimal path, the heat and lack of meaningful precip may last into the midweek period. On the other hand, the kicking trough may shift the ridge into a placement that brings more seasonable temperatures to the UP as well as more precip chances. LREF 10th-90th percentile spread is nearly 20 degrees by Wednesday evening, so confidence in the forecast is too low to deviate from the NBM at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Amended at 259 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Synoptic-scale subsidence is favored for today/Friday with seasonable temps. This weekend into early next week, anomalous midlevel anticyclone over the Four Corners region will build into the northern Plains by early next week. Impressive 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam are modeled by early next week over the northern Plains, +2 to +3 sigma as we approach the hottest time of the year. 850 mb temps in the low to possibly mid-20s (C) are similarly impressive. The upshot is growing confidence in a period of highs approaching or exceeding 90F Sunday through Tuesday. It does appear that humidity will be less of an additive factor to the apparent temps than the previous heat spell at the end of June/early July, as low-level trajectories will have more of a westerly/downsloping component off the high plains. Given the lack of deep-layer moisture and positioning downstream of the apex of the ridge, convective potential is fairly low until probably Tuesday, when there are indications of a possible backdoor front/ridge rider. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 725 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Dense fog has impacted all 3 terminals to varying degrees this morning. As SAW is in a region of more widespread FG, the 1/4SM vis will prevail until 14Z and then improve through the morning while CMX/IWD are in a more patchy setup, so will only carry TEMPO groups until 14Z. With high pressure building in, VFR conditions are forecast, with chances of FG redevelopment around 30% tonight. Confidence is too low to include FG mention for tonight with this TAF issuance. Expect mostly light winds this period, with the only winds greater than 5 kt expected being northerlies during the daytime hours today. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure building over the lake in the wake of a weak frontal boundary will maintain light winds through at least Saturday. Rain showers may lead to areas of fog through at least Thursday morning. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out this evening, especially closer to the shoreline, but overall potential is low. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-243>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION...Thompson AVIATION...GS MARINE...Thompson  831 FXUS63 KJKL 091130 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 730 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area from this afternoon through early Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 715 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of the PoPs through noon. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 445 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 08Z sfc analysis shows a weak boundary laid out just northwest of the JKl CWA and this is prompting the continued threat of showers and thunderstorms through this convective minimum into dawn. In fact, showers and thunderstorms are blossoming just northwest of our area of responsibility with additional lighter and scattered activity found over far eastern Kentucky. It is this activity, and the clouds associated with it, that is likely keeping the dense fog from becoming too widespread or extensive and generally more fleeting than that the past several nights. What is the same, though, is the high moisture content in the boundary layer with both temperatures and dewpoints nearly the same at each observation point - in the upper 60s and lower 70s - amid light and variable winds. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are only in broad agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all handle a key Central Plains shortwave slightly differently as it works east toward the Bluegrass State through the start of the weekend. The upper pattern starts with one mid level impulse moving through eastern Kentucky this morning along with some minor 5h height falls. This feature exits to the east this evening while fairly fast northwesterly mid-level flow remains in place into Friday. The next substantive wave up in this pattern is that ill modeled one over the Central Plains that ECMWF barely indicates while the GFS and NAM (slowest) are more distinctive with it. The weakness of this feature in the ECMWF allows more of its energy to work into Kentucky early on Friday while the other models keep it more contained and arriving later in the day. Either way, this pattern locally will support unsettled conditions through this part of the state well into the weekend. Despite the questionable agreement among the the finer fatuity's in the models through 00Z Saturday, the NBM was still used as the starting point for the grids as little difference in sensible weather can be expected from these model discrepancies. Did make some minor adjustment to PoPs by adding in the consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage from the latest CAM run's consensus. These results were again smoothed and fitted to a diurnal curve - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics - probably extending the convection deeper into the night. Sensible weather features typical wet summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be near normal for afternoon temperatures and humid with scattered to numerous afternoon/ evening convection expected. The influence of waves at mid-level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly this afternoon and beyond - will enhance the heavy rain threat and small potential for severe storms - mainly south and west of the area. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) inplace means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - cumulative into the weekend with isolated to scattered high water issues anticipated. For this reason a Flood Watch for flash flooding is in effect from this afternoon through Sunday morning. Temperatures will be moderated by the high moisture content suppressing highs in the afternoon and making for mild lows at night. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Friday evening. High moisture content to the air meant there were little opportunity to improve temps and dewpoints from the NBM through the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 500 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was primarily to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday - becoming more of a risk with time. The previous long term discussion follows: At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains. For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday. By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed. Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 The worst of the fog and low cloudsare confined to just a couple of TAF terminals at 12Z issuance time. Then, uncertainty abounds during the day concerning timing of showers/thunderstorms. It's likely that most places will be affected at some point. However, there is so much uncertainty regarding exact timing that it has been handled with PROB30 groups in the afternoon and evening with poor conditions via low VIS and CIGs. Outside of any storm, winds will be light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF AVIATION...GREIF  871 FXUS64 KEPZ 091130 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 530 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening but thunderstorm chances increase over the weekend and into early next week, especially over the lowlands. - Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-102; except highs Thursday and Friday from 100 to 104. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1016 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Flattened high pressure stays over SoCal Thursday before shifting over the Four Corners by Saturday. Thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon for the week ahead. Storms will be focused over the area mountains and locations along and west of the Rio Grande Thursday through Saturday. The high rapidly moves over the northern CONUS by Sunday allowing for Gulf moisture to push into the area Sunday and through at least midweek. This will add to the flooding threat if models continue to suggest this pattern with a big influx of tropical moisture. Winds will generally be light each day with some afternoon breezes. Temperatures will be warmer than average Thursday through Saturday with lowland high temperatures reaching to the upper 90s and low triple digits. Better moisture and rain chances will dip temperatures below the triple digit mark starting Sunday and into the work week. Highs during this time will be in the 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mostly VFR conditions with FEW-SCT130-250. Winds will be light, topping out around 10 knots with occasional gust to 20 knots from the southeast for ELP and LRU this afternoon and west to northwest at DMN and TCS. ISO SHRA/TSRA are possible after 21z and throughout the evening. Main impact would be gusty winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 We remain in a hot and somewhat dry pattern as minimum RH values dip into the teens this afternoon. Winds will be light, generally less than 10 MPH. Enough moisture be around for scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms with gusty winds and isolated dry lightning the main concerns. Vent rates will range good to very good. This pattern changes little through Saturday, but by Sunday, moisture will begin to increase while daytime temperatures decrease. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 78 103 77 102 / 20 10 20 0 Sierra Blanca 69 97 68 97 / 10 20 20 0 Las Cruces 70 102 70 100 / 20 20 20 0 Alamogordo 74 101 73 99 / 20 30 0 40 Cloudcroft 55 77 54 76 / 20 50 10 50 Truth or Consequences 72 102 73 100 / 20 10 10 0 Silver City 65 94 65 93 / 20 40 10 30 Deming 69 103 69 102 / 30 30 30 0 Lordsburg 69 100 69 99 / 30 30 30 10 West El Paso Metro 77 102 76 101 / 20 10 20 0 Dell City 71 101 71 100 / 0 10 20 0 Fort Hancock 75 103 75 103 / 10 20 20 0 Loma Linda 70 95 70 94 / 20 10 20 10 Fabens 75 103 75 103 / 10 10 20 0 Santa Teresa 73 101 73 100 / 20 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 78 102 78 101 / 20 10 10 0 Jornada Range 73 102 73 100 / 20 10 20 0 Hatch 72 105 72 104 / 20 20 20 0 Columbus 75 104 74 102 / 20 30 40 0 Orogrande 72 100 72 99 / 20 10 10 10 Mayhill 60 89 59 86 / 20 50 0 30 Mescalero 59 90 58 88 / 20 30 10 60 Timberon 57 86 57 85 / 30 40 10 30 Winston 61 93 63 92 / 20 20 0 0 Hillsboro 69 99 70 98 / 20 10 10 0 Spaceport 69 102 70 100 / 20 10 20 10 Lake Roberts 59 95 59 95 / 20 40 10 40 Hurley 65 97 65 97 / 30 40 10 10 Cliff 65 100 66 100 / 20 40 10 30 Mule Creek 63 96 64 96 / 20 40 10 20 Faywood 66 97 66 96 / 20 30 10 10 Animas 69 99 68 98 / 40 40 50 10 Hachita 68 99 67 98 / 30 40 40 0 Antelope Wells 68 97 67 97 / 40 50 60 10 Cloverdale 64 91 63 91 / 60 50 60 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown  017 FXUS63 KEAX 091132 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 632 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms Expected Overnight; Heavy Rainfall Possible - Conditional Severe Threat Thursday Afternoon; Activity May Push Further Eastward - Near Triple Digit Heat Index Values Interstate 70 and South Thursday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 H5 short-wave trough is moving out of the eastern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Stronger surface cyclone is present over western Kansas. This will be slow to move as it is largely disconnected from any mid-level steering flow. This has setup a warm front that as of late Wednesday evening is currently stalled over eastern Kansas. Convection over the past several hours has resulted in a differential heating boundary from the Upper Midwest into the Sandhills of Nebraska, and has been able to develop some new convection heading into the overnight hours. Complicating the mesoscale view though are numerous outflow boundaries that have developed under the area upper-level divergence. Broad large-scale ascent should continue to occur as this short-wave trough move overs head, and shower/storm activity should continue overnight and through much of the morning. While there is decent CAPE ahead of these showers/storms moving in, the weaker mid-level flow away from the axis of the short-wave trough, keeping deep layer shear low, has struggled to sustain strong updrafts for an extended period of time, with most storms becoming outflow dominant in fairly short order. A few stronger cores may be possible overnight with any remaining pockets of higher CAPE, and perhaps a few isolated wind gusts around 60 MPH and or quarter-size hail may be possible with a few storms. Most of this activity will push eastward out of the forecast area before 18z. Depending on how organized activity remains, PWAT values near 2.0 inches along with deep warm-cloud processes, efficient rainfall may result in localized rainfall amounts between 1.5 and 2.0 inches, and therefore may present some hydrologic issues, including the KC metro. Redevelopment east of Interstate 35 is possible later into the afternoon and evening, depending on where the boundary ends up. If outflow boundary production from overnight convection lingers, this may greatly alter the mesoscale environment heading into the afternoon. We may see more mid-level short-wave activity in the afternoon which could increase lift across much of the area again. However, the stronger vort maxima may move further eastward out of the area before there is sufficient time for the boundary layer to destabilize. And depending on where subsequent mid-level short-wave travel, may have localized pockets of deep layer shear to help organize convection. But if cloud-cover lingers into the middle of the afternoon across the area, this may push convection initiation further eastward or may require new activity to travel further before encountering a higher CAPE environment to strengthen. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday - Sunday... Ridging will begin to build over the western Plains on Friday. Remnant troughing to slowly push eastward Friday into Saturday. A stalled frontal boundary will remain parked over the region during this time. Southerly flow south of the front will continue to pump moisture into the region as PWATs will remain in the 1.5-1.75 inches range. This moisture and lifting mechanisms will keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast for Friday through most of Sunday. Over the southern half of the forecast area (south of the stalled front), we will see SBCAPE increase, which willallow for a small chance for strong storms. Main hazard with this will be gusty to damaging winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall. During this time, we will see highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Monday - Mid Next Week... By next week, impressive ridging will build over the central CONUS and high pressure will strengthen at the surface. These features will allow for conditions to dry out and for temperatures to increase a bit each day. Temperatures are likely to top out in the low to mid 90s mid next week. Though, dew points will remain in the mid 60s, which will keep heat indices in the upper 90s. Winds will remain light through this timeframe. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next couple of hours as they work their way east with MVFR ceilings lingering until the rain ends. Winds will remain east-northeast for most of the day before rain returns again for IXD later this evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Krull LONG TERM...Wilson AVIATION...Soria  991 FXUS63 KLBF 091131 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 631 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is in place for areas west of Highway 83 Thursday afternoon/evening with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main concern. - Some lingering light rain and general thunderstorms are possible on Friday as upper-level troughing remains close by, but no severe weather is expected. - Turning much warmer this weekend with a prolonged period of above normal temperatures likely for much of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Early morning rain and thunderstorms continue to percolate across western and southwest Nebraska. This is occurring within low-level convergence from residual outflows stemming from late Wednesday night convection. Additional thunderstorms developing off the Black Hills may threaten our northwest zones and be capable of strong outflow winds along with some heavy rain but longevity into western Nebraska is in question so will keep the forecast dry in the predawn hours for these locations. With high pressure nosing in, expect temperatures to fall to the upper 50s to middle 60s. Thursday/Thursday Night...high pressure will shift east into the upper Mississippi Valley and allow east southeasterly flow to resume across the local area. Outside of areas that see recycled air from Wednesday night central Nebraska thunderstorms, should see a narrow plume of richer moisture/theta-e that will work upslope into the southern Nebraska Panhandle and far southeast Wyoming. Afternoon highs should manage to reach the middle 80s for most and upper 80s for some. By mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms should form on the nose of this moisture tongue previously mentioned as it encounters a subtle converging line near or just east of the Nebraska/Wyoming border. Earlier activity is possible off the Pine Ridge into far southern Black Hills should this better moisture nose a bit further north. In either event, believe thunderstorms should be ongoing by mid-afternoon near the Highway 71 corridor with eastward progression allowing activity to reach the local area. While moderate instability should develop to the west, this will decrease fairly rapidly with eastward extent due to a combination of poor mid-level lapse rates and more limited low-level moisture. Thus, while deep-layer shear is stronger as one goes east, the waning instability and increasing low- level capping will inhibit thunderstorm potential for areas east of Highway 83. Consecutive runs of the HREF show this outcome well with measurable rainfall probabilities peaking between Highway 385 and Highway 61 but quickly decreasing as it approaches Highway 83 towards Midnight. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas generally along and west of Highway 83 but only a marginal for an additional ~50 miles further east. This aligns well with the forecast so no adjustments appear necessary. Beneficial rainfall appears possible for some locations. NBM output shows 50%+ potential for 0.25" or more rainfall through late evening but shows that hard decline on the east side aligning with the Highway 83 corridor. Believe spotty 0.75" or higher amounts are possible and should favor southwest Nebraska. Lows will fall into the middle 50s west to middle 60s east. Friday/Friday Night...a secondary weak meso high will cross southwest Nebraska with variable winds early in the day. Aloft, more pronounced shortwave troughing with associated height falls will quickly translate east towards the middle Missouri Valley. Though heights will climb during the latter half of the day locally, the proximity to the main h5 trough with ample moisture supports at least a continuation of light rain/general thunderstorm chances early in the day but diminishing towards the evening. NAM12 guidance suggests generally dry conditions from mid-afternoon on and HREF probabilities are in agreement with this. Will keep the 15-18% PoPs populated from the model blend but should this drier trend hold firm, these will likely be removed with subsequent forecasts. Temperatures aloft remain warm with h85 values in the lower to middle 20s degC and this should allow for near seasonable temperatures even with the lack of stronger boundary layer mixing. Forecast highs range from middle 80s south to lower 90s in the far north. While no precipitation is anticipated in the late evening, lingering low-level humidity should limit overnight lows to the lower 60s for all. These are near to slightly above normal for middle July. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Saturday into Next Week...much warmer temperatures remain on track as amplifying ridge upstream will spill over the Continental Divide and onto the High Plains. High pressure will build aloft, initially over the Four Corners region early Saturday to central South Dakota by late Sunday night as h5 heights approach 600 dam. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index highlights anomalous daytime highs each day Sunday through Wednesday, though most of the anomalies remain across the Central Rockies up through South Dakota and only skirt the area. This coincides reasonably well with where greatest h5 height anomalies are found with h2 and h5 geopotential heights reaching climatological maximums over the Dakotas and much of Minnesota by early Monday. This will effectively stymie any rain potential for the period, giving us hot/dry/windy conditions. It's worth noting that NBM percentile output has backed off on the expected heat modestly with median values largely holding in the middle 90s now for areas south of the Sandhills while locations along the NE/SD border saw climbs to upper 90s and triple digits, namely Valentine. Overall thinking is largely unchanged: expect heat, potentially significant heat, to establish itself across the Central Plains early next week and persist through the middle of the week at least. Though only showing subtly in NBM output, ridge breakdown should begin sometime Wednesday/Thursday and this may force a cool front south through the area and lead to more seasonable temperatures for the late week...at least briefly. Broad upper-ridging will likely remain across much of the southern CONUS and could build north into the area again by late week. Overall, the cooler signal for Wednesday which is now shown by both deterministic ECMWF/GFS solutions, remains limited confidence but seems reasonable given expected upper-level evolution around that time. Until finer details can be sorted out, stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Early morning fog and low stratus will hamper aviation operations across much of western Nebraska. Expect these conditions to continue for a few hours before improving to VFR conditions by late morning. Later today, thunderstorms will develop across the west and approach KLBF/KVTN by this evening. While an isolated storm may develop by late afternoon, confidence in this occurring invof either airspace is too low to mention at this time. Later this evening, a more organized band of thunderstorms should arrive with greatest impacts likely for southwest Nebraska including KLBF. Lesser impacts appear probable at KVTN but adjustments to timing and impact magnitudes are possible with later forecasts. Overall thinking is gusty outflow winds and brief IFR conditions from heavy rain are possible at KLBF. This will be accounted for with a TEMPO group for now. Any impacts should be limited to 2-4 hours for either terminal with improving conditions thereafter into early morning Friday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...NMJ  049 FXUS65 KPSR 091132 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 432 AM MST Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures will continue through the end of the work week resulting in areas of Major HeatRisk. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect through this evening across all of the lower desert locations, with the warning extended through Friday across western Imperial County, the Lower Colorado River Valley, and the Phoenix Metro. - The chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue over the higher terrain areas of the eastern and southeastern third of Arizona through Friday. - As deeper moisture moves in, the chances for more widespread thunderstorm activity will increase late weekend and early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... Latest objective analysis depicts an elongated subtropical ridge extending from eastern AZ through the eastern Pacific just off the coast of southern CA with 500 mb height fields ranging between 594- 596dm. With the ridging directly overhead, very hot temperatures will continue today across the region with afternoon highs ranging between 110-114 degrees across the south-central AZ lower deserts to 111-116 degrees across the western deserts. These afternoon highs combined with very warm overnight lows in the 80s to around 90 degrees in the Phoenix metro will continue to result in areas of Major HeatRisk. As a result, an Extreme Heat Warning remains in across all of the lower desert locations through this evening. The ridging will weaken slightly into Friday, resulting in slightly lower afternoon highs. However, across western Imperial County and the Lower Colorado River Valley area in particular, temperatures will still top out between 111-115 degrees with areas of Major HeatRisk continuing and thus have elected to extend the Extreme Heat Warning through Friday evening across this region. We also have elected to extend the Extreme Heat Warning through Friday for the Phoenix area as even though afternoon highs will be slightly cooler, ranging between 109-112 degrees, early morning lows will start out very warm near 90 degrees, resulting in areas of Major HeatRisk continuing. With greater subsidence and slightly drier air expected today and Friday, the overall convective coverage will decrease with activity relegated mostly across the White Mountains into the southeastern third of AZ. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As mentioned in previous discussions, the overall weather pattern heading into the weekend and next week will become more favorable for a more active monsoonal pattern to set up. The subtropical ridge will quickly migrate northeastward into the Rockies over the weekend and then set up over the Central Plains early next week while strengthening in the process. As this whole pattern evolution materializes, the mid-level flow will shift out of the east to southeast. This will introduce strong moisture transport into the Desert Southwest with the latest EPS and GEFS showing PWATs increasing to at least 1.4-1.5" starting as early as Sunday and remaining above 1.5" into next week. Moisture on Saturday will likely remain fairly limited across south- central AZ with low-level mixing ratios remaining between 9-10 g/kg, with the better moisture and thus the best convective potential remaining relegated to the higher terrain and southeastern AZ. There are strong indications from the latest guidance of a strong convective complex likely to develop over northern Sonora Saturday evening, which will likely send of pool of higher moisture into central AZ heading into Sunday with mixing ratios solidly above 10 g/kg. As a result, Sunday looks to be the first real potential for greater thunderstorm activity to materialize across the south- central AZ lower deserts with NBM PoPs solidly in the 30-50% range. With PWATs values remaining above 1.5" along with mixing ratios above 10 g/kg through the first half of next week, the potential for additional convective activity will remain in place and likely expand further west to include the western deserts as well with NBM PoPs ranging between 20-40% each day. We will also have to be on the lookout for any potential easterly waves that could enhance the convective activity, however, pinpointing the track and timing of these waves this far out is very difficult. Therefore, high uncertainty exists of which particular days next week have the potential to be more convectively active. With the increasing moisture and potential cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures this weekend into early next week will gradually retreat to near to slightly above normal levels with widespread moderate HeatRisk in place. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1130Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period. Winds will trend back towards more diurnal patterns with E/SE early this morning turning west mid to late morning. Westerly winds during the afternoon will have some more gusts generally between 15-20 kts. Skies will remain mostly clear around the terminals. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period. Winds at KIPL will mostly be out of the SE with a period of westerly gusts early in the evening. KBLH will be similar to the past several days, remaining southerly. Afternoon gusts are expected at KBLH between 20-25kts into the evening hours. Otherwise clear skies will persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds with isolated lightning over the far eastern districts through Friday will be the main fire weather concern. Outside of any potential outflows, winds should favor diurnal trends with typical afternoon breeziness around 20 mph. Some stronger afternoon gusts between 20-30 mph will be common through Friday along the Lower Colorado River Valley. Afternoon RH values between 10-20% will be common across the region through Saturday. Overnight recoveries will generally range between 30-60% with the upper end of the range across the Imperial Valley and the eastern Districts. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal today, with the lowest elevations reaching between 110-115 degrees before a very gradual cool down takes place starting Friday. More widespread monsoonal activity is likely starting late this weekend and continuing into next week. Moisture levels and humidities should also improve considerably heading into next week, alleviating much of the fire weather concerns. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530-537-540- 542>544-546-548-550-551. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ531>534- 536-538-539-541-545-547-549-553>555-559-560-562. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-566-567- 569-570. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ564-565- 568. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lojero LONG TERM...Lojero AVIATION...Ryan/Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Kuhlman  100 FXUS64 KHGX 091135 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 635 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot conditions will continue today as daytime highs will be in the mid 90s with heat indices reaching the triple digits. - Lower chances of rain today. Isolated to scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms are possible closer to the coast. - Deep Gulf moisture will arrive Friday morning causing rain chances to increase Friday and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This morning, a mid level trough lingers over the southeast part of Texas. This trough will continue to interact with the routine summertime sea breeze. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible; however, there will likely be lower overall coverage than we saw on Wednesday due to a decrease in moisture with drier air situated behind the trough axis. Daytime highs will be in the mid 90s with 20-30% chance of rain along and south of I-10...lower further inland. Tonight, remnant showers and storms will begin to die off as the area begins to cool. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 70s with S/SE winds. Friday and into the weekend, an inverted trough will track westward and inland across Mexico and the Southern Texas coast. South to southeasterly flow will continue and deeper moisture will return. This surge of higher moisture will likely allow for scattered coastal showers/storms in the mornings, transitioning inland during the day. With PW's in the 2.1-2.4" range throughout the weekend into early next week, rain chances increase to 30-70%. There's no significant focusing mechanisms in terms of a widespread flooding potential, but cannot rule out some localized heavy downpours from time-to-time considering the tropical airmass. Heading into the early and middle parts of next week, an expansive mid level ridge will take shape across the cntl US. We'll be on its southern periphery and subject to a parade of westward moving disturbances tracking westward underneath it...with continued daily chances of rainfall. Seasonal summer heat continues as maximum temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s today and heat index values ranging from 100-106F over the weekend. Vulnerable populations should take proper safety precautions by wearing light weight clothing, drinking plenty of water, and taking frequent breaks. With the increase in clouds and periodic rainfall, readings will likely taper down closer to near normal this weekend and next week, or even slightly below normal on the higher coverage rain days. LDavis/47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Latest satellite and radar imagery show generally quiet conditions across the forecast area, with VFR prevailing at most TAF sites. Patchy fog is on going across the region with KCXO briefly dropping down to IFR conditions. A couple of ASOS stations across the region show MVFR conditions as well. That said, most sites around the region remain at or above 7 mils this morning. Still kept the possibility for some visibilities down to 6 miles for a few sites this morning, with KCXO reflecting MVFR conditions. A SAL intrusion is expected today, which should put a lid on shower and thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening. However, some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze can not be ruled out. Winds look to remain light to gentle out of the SW/S through tonight. Convective Allowing Models are starting to show a cloud deck building in towards the end of IAH's 12z TAF period. It is too early to tell if cigs will support MVFR conditions, but an increase in sky conditions appears likely over the next couple ofTAF cycles. && .MARINE... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 With a fairly long fetch of onshore winds in the 12-17kt range setting up in the coming days and through the weekend, we should see the current 2 foot seas bump up a bit...closer to 3-4ft. Rain chances increase Friday into early next week as deeper tropical moisture moves into the area. Mariners should anticipate scattered, to occasionally numerous, showers/tstms during the late night through early afternoon hours on a daily basis. Winds and seas will be higher in and near any stronger storms. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 97 76 95 78 / 10 10 20 10 Houston (IAH) 96 79 94 79 / 30 10 30 20 Galveston (GLS) 90 84 90 85 / 10 20 30 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LDavis AVIATION...Williams MARINE...47  085 FXUS64 KTSA 091134 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday with large area of heat advisory conditions. - Isolated to widely scattered storms Thursday through Friday generally along and north of Interstate 40. - Storm chances trend higher late Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals with the increase in daily rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Low level jet has intensified with early signs of high based convection developing near the OK / KS border region. This convection is expected to expand and spread east through Thursday morning before diminishing by early afternoon. While early day cloud cover and/out outflow may temporarily slow the daily warm up, the veered low level flow and placement of the low level thermal ridge favors temps still reaching the warmest levels of the week area wide by afternoon. Dewpoints were vastly under forecast on Wednesday, and while they are likely to be some lower on Thursday, the forecast will favor the higher value scenarios with the resultant heat index values supportive of a broad region heat advisory. Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible Thursday afternoon into the evening and somewhat stronger flow aloft would support a severe risk primarily due to downburst winds. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Convection may again expand north of the local forecast area Thursday night however confidence is low in how far south these storms would spread into the day Friday. Forecasts will retain low chances generally north of Interstate 40. The slow moving cold front will struggle to make southward advance into the region, however the upper ridge will continue to amplify across the western states and waves passing on the ridge periphery will aid in eventually pushing the boundary into the region late Friday or during the day Saturday. This boundary will then act as a favored corridor for daily shower and storm chances through the weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with deep moisture and slower storm motions. The upper ridge will intensify as it re-centers over the central and northern Plains by early next week with its influence gradually expanding southward into the local area. Lower daily rain chances and warmer temps are forecast by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered to broken high clouds are anticipated across the CWA through the TAF period. A period of mid clouds exists during the day as scattered showers with low thunder potential moves across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Will continue with VCSH for a few hours this morning north of Interstate 40. A slight chance for redevelopment is forecast this afternoon, with low chances for showers/storms overnight tonight across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. With uncertainty of coverage and impacts to any one terminal will continue to keep TAFs dry this afternoon/tonight. Any storm that can develop will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rains. Winds through the period remain southerly for most locations, and look to be breezy during the day today. VFR conditions remain forecast through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 98 79 97 78 / 20 20 20 30 FSM 98 78 98 78 / 10 10 20 10 MLC 97 80 96 79 / 10 10 10 10 BVO 97 76 95 74 / 30 20 20 40 FYV 93 76 93 75 / 20 2020 30 BYV 94 75 91 73 / 20 20 20 40 MKO 96 78 96 78 / 20 20 20 20 MIO 93 76 93 74 / 30 30 20 50 F10 97 79 97 78 / 20 10 10 10 HHW 97 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276- 354-376. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ119-120-129-219-220-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20  193 FXUS63 KGRB 091136 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 636 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will come to an end late this afternoon. Severe storms are not expected. - Will need to watch precipitation trends this weekend. A few storms are possible Saturday and Sunday. - Trends continue to be monitored for the excessive heat potential early next week with highs in the 90s at some locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers continued early this morning near Rhinelander and Merrill eastward into northern Door County ahead of a weak cold front that is expected to sag southward today. As the front sags southward, rain chances return to central and east-central WI this morning which will continue into the afternoon. Bufkit soundings indicated 500 to 800 J/KG of CAPE and shear values around 20 knots, thus not expecting severe weather today. The showers and storms will end from north to south this afternoon. Tranquil conditions are expected on Friday. A new wrinkle to the forecast for the weekend. High pressure is expected to set up across the state. Return flow/850mb warm advection sets up Friday night, which should result in scattered thunderstorms developing across Minnesota and western WI. Some of the activity may spill into far north-central WI towards 12z Saturday. The combination of daytime heating and possibly an outflow boundary from the overnight convection is expected to bring a chance of showers and storms across the north Saturday afternoon. Confidence is low on a dry forecast for Sunday as the Canadian/ECMWF are bringing a weak impulse across the area at 500mb. The ECMWF is more bullish than the Canadian model on the QPF output for Sunday. Will continue to monitor to see if rain will need to be added for this period. 500mb ridge builds early next week, resulting increasing heat and humidity later this weekend through the middle of next week. 850mb temperatures are pretty toasty off the ECMWF/Canadian/GFS that would support highs in the lower to middle 90s at our typical hot spots. Current forecast is a little bit lower that what the max values would be each day. None the less, it will be hot. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Patchy fog should lift by 8 am, otherwise MVFR CIGS or lower will lift inot the VFR category this afternon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected at times through this afternoon. Skies will clear this evening with patchy fog again after midnight tonight. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Eckberg AVIATION.......Eckberg  163 FXUS64 KBMX 091136 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 636 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 635 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026 - Thunderstorms: Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for now through the beginning of next week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. && .DISCUSSION... (Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026 The overall pattern doesn't change significantly over the next few days. Broad low level ridging will keep our warm/humid air mass in place and allow for our typical diurnal pattern of summertime thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoons. A very weak upper level low slowly shifts across to our north on Thursday, which could lead to slightly above normal coverage of those afternoon thunderstorms, but the overall forcing remains weak. As we go into the weekend and slow-moving boundary is expected to push southward into our area. This will provide a stronger focus for afternoon thunderstorms. Because of this, the coverage of thunderstorm activity will be higher across Central AL each afternoon Saturday through at least Monday before shifting more to the southern portions of our area by Tuesday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the morning, and increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and evening hours. Have included VCSH at all sites except KMGM and KTOI until the afternoon, to account for scattered convection already ongoing and moving across the northern half of the state. Confidence is too low to include prevailing showers or thunder, so left mention in PROB30 and with VCSH for now. Tonight, there could be fog development, though the location will depend on where convection lingers late into the evening and early night. Any activity over a TAF site will lower visibility to IFR at least, with gusting winds. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns continue to be low. Our warm and moist air mass will remain in place with diurnally driving thunderstorm activity expected over the next several days. Winds will continue to generally be light during the day becoming calm during the overnight periods. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 92 72 92 72 / 30 10 60 30 Anniston 91 73 91 73 / 30 10 50 20 Birmingham 92 74 93 75 / 30 10 40 20 Tuscaloosa 91 74 93 75 / 40 10 30 10 Calera 95 74 96 74 / 40 10 40 10 Auburn 91 74 92 74 / 30 10 30 20 Montgomery 94 74 94 75 / 30 20 30 10 Troy 93 73 93 73 / 30 20 40 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...25/Owen AVIATION...24  216 FXUS65 KTFX 091137 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 537 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning drier and much warmer through the weekend, with some record heat possible over the weekend. - Breezy conditions Saturday may result in some elevated fire conditions. - Not as hot next week, but still warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026/ While upper level flow will remain zonal/westerly over the next few days, expect generally drier and still warm conditions over the next 48 hours. The only exception to this may be a few isolated thunderstorms along the Continental Divide Friday as warmer air pushes into the area. Upper level ridging will build rapidly build late Friday and Saturday, which will cause temperatures to surge into the upper 90s to around 100F for most low elevation locations by Saturday afternoon, with many areas likely seeing 100F Sunday afternoon, though the exact temperature may depend on some incoming high clouds. Upper level flow will shift to more westerly on Monday, which will allow temperatures to lower a bit from the weekend highs, but most areas will still be quite warm with temperatures well into the 80s to low 90s. With this upper level flow pattern, expect generally dry conditions with just a few showers and thunderstorms to pop up in the afternoon. A passing upper level trough may bring some more widespread showers and storms on Wednesday, though timing of the trough passage will ultimately determine just how widespread and intense the storms will be. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Heat this weekend: Models have been in very good agreement in regards to very warm to hot temperatures across North Central and Southwestern Montana this weekend. While the NBM has begun to forecast some record heat (with even some all time records in jeopardy across Southwestern Montana), there remains a slight bit of uncertainty with regards to just how hot it will get. Most models seem to be hinting at some thin, high cirrus clouds streaming in. While at first glance this may sound like a likely failure mode, and it might be, thin cirrus clouds have a documented ability to provide a net greenhouse effect by allowing incoming infrared light to pass through, but keep outgoing infrared heat trapped below them. So given this interaction, I see no reason to deviate from the NBM’s rather warm forecast. I heavily debated whether or not to issue an Extreme Heat Watch, but given the potential for all time record highs in some locations, even if temperatures come in slightly cooler than expected it will still be hot enough for at least a Heat Advisory. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 09/12Z TAF Period VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, though warm temperatures may result in some density issues, particularly at KWYS, KEKS, and KBZN. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 88 56 94 59 / 10 0 0 10 CTB 82 55 86 57 / 10 0 0 10 HLN 88 56 91 60 / 10 0 10 10 BZN 87 54 91 57 / 10 0 10 10 WYS 83 45 86 47 / 20 10 0 10 DLN 86 52 88 54 / 10 0 10 10 HVR 88 56 92 59 / 10 0 0 10 LWT 83 53 89 55 / 10 0 10 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Canyon Ferry Area-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gallatin Valley- Madison River Valley-Missouri Headwaters-Northern Blaine County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  213 FXUS66 KMFR 091137 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 437 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...09/12Z TAFs...Marine stratus will maintain IFR/LIFR conditions along the coast from Cape Blanco northward and Brookings southward through most of the morning. Some some gradual improvement to a scattered layer is expected again later this morning, but will return to similar areas after 03z this evening. All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period with the typical increase in afternoon breezes this afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Typical summer weather for the remainder of the week: seasonable temperatures and humidities, gusty afternoon winds. * Pattern amplifies Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-35 mph) Friday- Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring heightened fire weather concerns (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * Thunderstorm pattern early next week. Best chances east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. DISCUSSION...Another quiet summer morning underway today. The marine layer is far less extensive this morning and only blankets the coast from Brookings southward. Skies are clear everywhere else. Westerly flow will prevail today under a mostly zonal flow pattern with flat high pressure to the south and a broad trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more stable air mass with thunderstorm potential remaining well east of the area. There will likely be some cumulus buildups today east of the Cascades and across northern California, but no showers are expected today. Generally cooler temperatures are expected into the weekend, so instead of temperatures being 8 to 10 degrees above normal like recent days, high temperatures through the weekend will hover within a few degrees of normal, equating to low 90s West/upper 80s East. The pattern transitions on Friday with high pressure to the south moving eastward into the Great Basin region, then amplifying on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward Friday into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly again and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tighter pressure gradients. This pattern will bring multiple days of strong, gusty winds to the region Friday through Sunday when gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 35 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions could be possible east of the Cascades Friday through Sunday, most widespread on Saturday. The parent low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, but a frontal boundary/energy gets left behind, maintaining tight pressure gradients. Guidance maintains another day of gusty winds (25-30 mph), and although humidities do tick upward some, it could still be another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough and the flow will turn more south to southwest heading into the early part of next week. This pattern will bear watching for thunderstorm potential as south to southwesterly flow could push some monsoonal moisture into the region. Much will depend on when/where shortwaves develop and at this juncture, it's too soon to try to pinpoint details. It's also challenging because our region will remain wedged between strong high pressure to the east and incoming troughs from the northwest. The proximity of those troughs could be enough to keep the flow more southwest or even westerly, and the more westerly the flow, the lower the chances for thunder, especially west of the Cascades. Until further details can be sussed out, it currently looks like the best chances for thunderstorms would be across eastern areas on Monday/Tuesday. We'll continue to monitor model trends to see if the eastward shift in the upper level pattern persists, or if thunderstorm chances shift westward. Stay tuned for updates as models hone in on additional details. MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Thursday, July 9, 2026...A thermal trough will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas today. Hazardous warning level seas are expected south of Gold Beach and generally beyond 5 nm from shore and there could be a brief period of northerly gales in this area this afternoon. Conditions improve tonight into Friday as the thermal trough weakens and winds ease, but steep seas will continue for all areas south of Cape Blanco through Friday evening. Gusty north winds could return again for a brief period on Sunday, but in general, seas will be dominated by a fresh northwest swell this weekend and into early next week, with the thermal trough rebounding more fully during the latter half of next week. FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 200 AM Thursday, July 9, 2026... Seasonable temperatures and humidities are expected for the remainder of the week, with critical fire weather concerns increasing Friday and continuing through the weekend. The region will be wedged between strong high pressure to the east and an upper level trough off the eastern Pacific through the weekend, which will result in increased pressure gradients across the area. Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) are expected Friday through Sunday. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens on Friday, and when combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Modoc and southeastern Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 for Friday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this potential. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to peak on Saturday when humidities trend lower (low teens/single digits possible), winds increase some (25-35 mph common, possible up to 40 mph in the windiest locations) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. Regardless, critical fire weather conditions are again possible for Sunday as well, so additional watches/warnings will likely be needed through the weekend. A potential thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of next week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which could send monsoonal moisture into the region. Latest model guidance has shifted a bit on the overall pattern set up. The region will remain wedged between strong high pressure to the east and incoming troughs from the west/northwest. The proximity of those troughs could be enough to keep the flow more southwest or even westerly, and the more westerly the flow, the lower the chances for thunder, especially west of the Cascades. Until further details can be sussed out, it currently looks like the best chances for thunderstorms would be across eastern areas on Monday/Tuesday. We'll need to monitor the potential for any shortwaves/tropical activity that models try to develop and send our way early next week. On the other hand, however, if models continue this more eastward shift of the incoming troughs/southwest to west flow, we could potentially see an extended period of winds/RH concerns vs thunderstorms. Stay tuned as details become more clear with future model runs. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for ORZ624. CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  363 FXUS63 KLSX 091141 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 641 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and a few brief tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with these storms through tonight. - Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible on Friday afternoon and evening, and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with these storms. - Generally dry weather is expected Sunday into next week with warmer than average temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain remain the primary forecast concerns today and Friday. An MCS over northeast Kansas looks like it's spinning up an MCV at this time. Short range guidance moves this MCV east through the day at varying speeds. The RAP may be the slowest, only pushing the vortmax as far as the Mississippi River by 00Z. Various CAMs, the GFS and short range ensembles such as the HREF and REFS move the wave more quickly eastward, crossing the Mississippi river into Illinois around 18Z today. The timing and track of the MCV will be part of what determines convective trends this afternoon. The faster solution would limit afternoon convection mainly to areas along and east of I- 44 in Missouri and along and south of I-70 in Illinois. However the slower solution puts the entire area under threat of thunderstorms this afternoon. Since the model consensus is faster, am leaning in that direction with highest PoPs over east central and southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. Kept low chance PoPs over most of the remainder of the area keeping the slower RAP in mind. Models are showing 3000+ J/Kg CAPE with 30-35kts of deep layer shear which is good enough for storms to become organized into severe multicell clusters or even a severe MCS. Primary threat remains damaging winds in excess of 50kts. Boundary interactions along with a bit of extra directional shear associated with the MCV may be enough for a brief tornado as well. Additionally, there's enough CAPE in the hail-growth zone to support hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. The severe threat should diminish with weakening instability during the evening. The low level jet increases to 30-40kts tonight which will produce moderate to strong moisture convergence along any low level boundary laid down by earlier convection. This should result in more thunderstorms tonight, though precisely where the storms will develop will depend on where the low level boundary settles. Some guidance keeps it farther north closer to the I-70 corridor, while others are more across the Ozarks. Regardless, the low level jet veers overnight which should make the storms progressive along the boundary, but there will probably be more than one wave of thunderstorms that track along it. There is therefore a locally heavy rain threat, though widespread flooding doesn't look likely at this time as flash flood guidance is pretty universally well in excess of 2"/hr. Convective trends for Friday and Friday night are very dependent upon where the effective boundary ends up Friday morning, and on another convectively enhanced wave moving across Missouri into Illinois. There's a question of how unstable the atmosphere will get Friday afternoon into Friday evening depending on where the effective surface boundary is. However, severe wind gusts and hail will be possible again. Carney && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Models vary in how strong the aforementioned convectively enhanced short wave is as it moves from Missouri into Illinois late Friday night into Saturday morning. Some solutions show a strong wave which develops a closed low at the surface that drives a composite weak cold front and lingering convective boundary through Missouri Saturday morning. This would dry out the low levels and likely end the chance for thunderstorms. Others are weaker and allow the boundary to linger over the area through Saturday which would keep a chance for precip going longer. There's no particular reason to favor either solution at this point as it will depend on convective trends upstream over the Great Plains. Guidance continues to show a strong upper level ridge developing over the western U.S. late Saturday into Sunday which spreads east across the Plains and Midwest by early next week. Models continue to show some differences in the speed with which it builds east, and the ultimate strength of the ridge. However, the consensus continues to put the thermal ridge north of our area across the Upper Midwest. The NBM temperature forecast therefore looks pretty good with dry and warm, but not excessively warm weather next week. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weakening area of showers and thunderstorms is moving into central Missouri. Expect this convection to continue to weaken as it moves east for the next 2-3 hours until it largely dissipates. The disturbance in the atmosphere caused by these storms will continue moving east through the day, and more storms are expected to develop around it during the afternoon, most likely over southern Illinois into east central and southeast Missouri. More storms are possible during the evening as another disturbance moves into the region from the west. The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 50kts, 1 inch hail, and IFR flight conditions in heavy rain. Storms may linger across southeast Missouri through the overnight hours, though confidence in thunderstorm trends is low at this time. VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  647 FXUS65 KABQ 091146 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 546 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 537 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms. - A low risk of severe storms exists Thursday and Friday across far northeast NM, mainly in Union County. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 208 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The monsoon moisture plume draped from southwest to northeast over NM this morning will rotate clockwise today as a dry subtropical ridge builds east into AZ and an inverted trough moves west from south TX. A 60kt speed max on the northern periphery of the upper ridge will force an impressive dry intrusion into northwest NM this afternoon. Dry lightning strikes from Wednesday may lead to new fire starts today as single digit humidity and breezy northwest winds develop this afternoon. These dry northwest winds will also help to force temps above 100F around the Four Corners so a Heat Advisory has been issued. Meanwhile, showers and storms are likely to develop along the central mt chain then move southeast into the eastern plains thru this evening. Falling PWATs over much of the region will increase the chance for showers and storms with gusty winds and little to no rainfall, especially along and west of the central mt chain. Sufficient moisture, instability, and shear over far northeast NM ahead of the approaching speed max will allow a few storms to become strong as they move across northeast NM. The monsoon high will become more well-defined near the Four Corners Friday while low level moisture remains scant over the northwest half of NM. Another day of dry northwest breezes will help to force max temps above 100F around the Four Corners and the middle and lower RGV. Another Heat Advisory is likely, including the ABQ metro Friday. The upper level speed max from today will be exiting the Front Range Friday and help to assist with storm development over northeast NM. A couple more strong storms are possible. Models have been consistent forcing a moist outflow boundary from these storms southwest across all of eastern NM Friday night. A moderate gap wind is possible as NBM75th percentile gusts average 35 to 45 mph from near Santa Fe to the ABQ metro Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 208 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The moist outflow boundary from Friday night will help to set the stage for greater coverage of storms along and east of the central mt chain Saturday. The monsoon high will strengthen to near 598dm over central CO and allow steering flow to become more north-south over NM. A 40kt jet forming on the eastern edge of the upper level high will also provide broader ascent over eastern NM. Meanwhile, mid level deformation will be increasing over southeast NM as the inverted trough continues moving west from TX. A noteworthy uptick in storms with locally heavy rainfall is expected as PWATs rise above normal and model instability is impressive along and east of the central mt chain. The chances are increasing for a Flood Watch scenario in the Ruidoso area Saturday. These storms will force another moist outflow boundary west across the RGV into more of western NM for Sunday. Forecast confidence decreases by Sunday given uncertainties in how the inverted trough dampens into the broader synoptic circulation evolving over the southwest CONUS. The upper level ridge will build to near 599dmover WY and the Dakotas while an upper level shortwave off the Baja moves north toward SoCal. This pattern will force a shift to deep layer east-southeast flow over the entire southwest CONUS early next week. Rich moisture will be deepening over the region but a large dry intrusion above 500mb may limit convection over much of central and eastern NM Monday thru Wednesday. Western and southern NM stand the best chances for showers and storms at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mid level cigs over northern and western NM early this morning will dissipate after sunrise. SHRA/TS will develop over the high terrain between 12pm and 3pm then move south and east at 10-15KT into nearby highlands and valleys on outflow boundaries. The main focus will be south and east of KABQ today. A direct hit will be capable of wind gusts >40KT with brief moderate rain and lightning strikes. A couple storms over far northeast NM may become strong between 2pm and 6pm with large hail and damaging winds possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Dry lightning strikes over northwest NM Wednesday evening may lead to new fire starts as a few hours of near critical fire weather are expected around the Four Corners today. Several hours of single digit humidity are expected with northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and ERC values >90th percentile. Meanwhile, storms with small footprints of wetting rainfall will develop along and east of the central mt chain this afternoon. Storm motion will be erratic toward the south and east around 10 to 20 mph. Any storms across central NM will be dry with strong outflow winds and little to no rainfall. A similar scenario is in store Friday but with lighter winds across northwest NM and fewer storms overall. The exception will be northeast NM where a few strong storms are possible. These storms will force a moist boundary westward to the central chain Saturday. There will be greater coverage of storms with wetting rainfall along and east of the central mt chain Saturday afternoon. The risk of burn scar flooding will increase in the Ruidoso area. Outflow from this activity will force low level moisture farther west toward the AZ border Sunday with increasing storm chances for southern and western NM into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 100 62 99 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 95 48 95 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 92 59 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 93 58 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 90 59 90 58 / 5 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 94 58 95 57 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 90 60 91 60 / 5 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 90 65 92 66 / 50 10 10 0 Datil........................... 87 61 89 62 / 30 10 5 0 Reserve......................... 96 55 97 56 / 20 10 30 10 Glenwood........................ 100 59 100 60 / 40 20 30 10 Chama........................... 87 49 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 89 65 91 66 / 40 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 91 58 92 59 / 10 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 56 89 56 / 30 0 0 0 Red River....................... 79 49 79 48 / 30 0 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 83 44 84 44 / 20 0 10 5 Taos............................ 91 53 92 54 / 20 0 0 0 Mora............................ 87 54 88 55 / 30 0 20 5 Espanola........................ 96 61 98 62 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 91 64 93 65 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 6196 62 / 20 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 70 99 71 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 67 100 67 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 101 65 104 67 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 68 101 69 / 10 5 0 0 Belen........................... 101 65 103 66 / 10 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 101 67 102 68 / 10 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 100 64 103 65 / 10 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 101 67 103 68 / 10 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 100 65 103 66 / 10 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 96 68 98 69 / 10 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 100 67 102 68 / 10 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 102 71 104 72 / 20 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 93 64 94 64 / 10 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 93 63 95 64 / 10 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 95 60 96 60 / 10 5 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 96 56 97 57 / 10 5 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 90 58 91 58 / 20 10 10 5 Mountainair..................... 94 61 96 61 / 20 10 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 92 63 94 63 / 20 20 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 95 68 97 68 / 20 20 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 87 63 88 62 / 40 20 40 10 Capulin......................... 87 53 86 53 / 60 20 60 40 Raton........................... 91 53 91 53 / 50 10 40 20 Springer........................ 93 55 93 55 / 50 5 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 90 56 91 57 / 50 5 20 20 Clayton......................... 95 61 92 61 / 40 30 10 50 Roy............................. 91 59 91 59 / 30 10 20 40 Conchas......................... 100 66 100 65 / 20 20 5 50 Santa Rosa...................... 96 64 97 64 / 30 20 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 101 69 101 67 / 20 30 0 60 Clovis.......................... 100 68 100 67 / 0 20 0 40 Portales........................ 100 70 101 69 / 0 20 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 100 70 100 69 / 10 20 0 20 Roswell......................... 102 72 103 72 / 0 20 0 0 Picacho......................... 97 66 98 66 / 20 20 5 0 Elk............................. 94 64 95 63 / 50 10 30 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42  718 FXUS65 KBOU 091147 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 547 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Thursday, with the severe threat expanding further west to the Front Range. - Prolonged period of hot temperatures arrive Saturday, lasting through at least Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances remain low during this period. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 132 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Moisture will remain elevated today, with dewpoints in the upper 40s to potentially low 60s for the plains this afternoon. This moisture and steep low to mid level lapse rates will lead to decent instability today (MLCAPEs around 1000 to 1800 J/kg). The instability combined with weak upslope from east/southeast surface winds, a weak shortwave moving over the area, and 0-6 km shear around 30 to 45kts will provide the necessary ingredients for scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. The main severe hazards today will be large hail and strong winds, however we could see a landspout form if a storm develops near the DCVZ. There will also be the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the plains. Showers and storms are expected to form in the higher terrain and foothills in the early afternoon before moving east across the plains throughout the afternoon and evening. The upper level ridging will begin to build towards the area on Friday. Weak subsidence on the backside of today's shortwave and ahead of the upper level ridge will put a damper on our storm chances for Friday. However, storm chances won't go away completely. Dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 40s and 50s with decent instability. Shear looks to weaken slightly for the area on Friday, especially in our northern counties which will limit the severe potential. The main question that remains is where the outflow boundaries will set up on Friday from the convection on Thursday. Convergence along any residual boundaries and the weak upslope flow could be enough to trigger some more isolated convection Friday afternoon, but the severe threat will be lower (in both intensity and coverage) compared to Thursday. The upper level ridge will continue to build over the area for the weekend. The center of the high will move northeast throughout the weekend, parking over the NE/SD/IA area through the middle of next week. Under this strong ridge, we'll see large scale subsidence and hot temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to reach into the 90s to around 103 degrees in the plains for the first part of next week. The warmest temperatures are forecast to be in the northern I-25 corridor area. Right now, we have Major Heat Risk for portions of the urban corridor and I-25 corridor for Monday and Tuesday, including Denver, Boulder, and the Fort Collins area. This means there is a major risk for heat related illness in these areas, especially for people without effective cooling and proper hydration. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/... Issued at 540 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers have developed over the higher terrain and foothills and are moving east as of early this morning. There's uncertainty in how long they'll survive off of the higher terrain and their exact movement, so we have an hour or two of prob30 for -SHRA this morning at each TAF site. Things should start to clear out in the mid morning before storms move into the area again for the afternoon. Storms are expected to form to the west of the TAF sites in the early afternoon and then progress east. The most likely storm timing is between 19Z and 23Z for KBJC and 20Z to 23Z for KAPA and KDEN. Winds after the storms move through are still uncertain due tooutflow boundaries, but sometime in the late evening to early overnight winds should turn towards drainage. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...AP  801 FXUS66 KMTR 091150 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 450 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Warmer temperatures continues through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1244 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Today and tonight) Onshore winds are ushering stratus inland. 2.8 mb ACV-SFO and 3.0 mb SFO-SAC pressure gradients support northwest to west winds. The 500 mb high pressure system centered over southern California and northern Mexico will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. Surface warming will mix out much of the stratus today by late morning and afternoon. Daytime highs today will be in the 60s coastside, 60s/70s bayside to the 80s/90s inland. Stratus returns tonight. Lows will be in the 50s except lower to mid 60s at higher elevations tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1244 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) Global model guidance is consistent showing the 500 mb high pressure system beginning to move northeastward Friday through early next week. Daytime highs will be coolest along the coast with 60s, 60s/70s bayside and in the 80s/90s inland to the lower 100s far inland mainly over the southern interior. Night-time lows will cool to the 50s/60s. Southerly winds aloft on the periphery of the high will transport mid-level sub-tropical/tropical moisture to our forecast area beginning Saturday night and Sunday and lasting through Tuesday night. We'll continue to monitor the potential for a temporary increase in mid level instability. At the earliest onset of moisture arriving, recent 00z guidance from the NAM and RRFS are mixed, the NAM shows pockets of instability to our southwest late Saturday night to early Sunday, while the RRFS does not show any mucape. 00z GFS continues to show essentially no mucape except occasional pockets of mid-level mucape. We'll continue to monitor the higher resolution models with each subsequent model run(s). A possible limiting factor for convection over our forecast area is 500 mb height ridging is forecast to extend west from the eastward departing 500 mb high center. If this occurs, broad anticyclonic flow will be present, however can't completely discount embedded thermal trough(s) within the broad anticyclonic flow given the height field; summer weather systems can be a complex mix in the various layers of the troposphere. There's currently good agreement in this westward extending 500 mb ridge scenario in the ECMWF and GFS, a good sign for less convective potential. At this time the potential for convection is a low confidence forecast because of the varied output seen so far. Please stay tuned to the latest updates. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 W-NW onshore flow and a more robust marine layer from earlier this evening has combined for IFR/LIFR ceilings for all locations other than KSJC, which is MVFR and the best candidate to begin clearing out by mid-morning with KLVK not far behind. Mixing in of slightly warmer temperatures later this morning should lead to stratus retreating sooner than the past few days, with most terminals lifting to VFR by late morning, except for KMRY. Vicinity of SFO...The more westerly flow may result in KSFO ceilings lingering into early afternoon with steady fetch of stratus straight into San Francisco Bay. MVFR/IFR ceilings return around or soon after sunset. SFO Bridge Approach...Clouds will clear earlier than the terminal. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR cigs are expected to persist into late morning. Theres a 50/50 chance of a shore window of VFR by mid-afternoon, then IFR/LIFR returns after sunset through the remainder of the forecast period. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fresh to strong northwest winds continue, increasing to near gale force heading into the weekend. Wind driven rough seas (9-11 ft) will persist into the weekend along with a long period southerly swell. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Warmer and drier conditions continue into this weekend. This increases fire weather concerns slightly as fuels are forecast to rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. The main forecast concern is the lack of instability across our region which may prevent convection from developing. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. && .BEACHES... Issued at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  916 FXUS61 KPBZ 091152 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 752 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A slight increase in shower and thunderstorm chances were included for Saturday, as a surface boundary stalls south of the area. Dry and warmer weather is expected for next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, more numerous south of Pittsburgh 2) Unsettled pattern continues through Saturday, with periodic showers and thunderstorms 3) Mainly dry and warm Sunday into next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A shortwave trough will continue to track out of the Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valley region this morning, with a passage across the Upper Ohio Valley region later this morning into the afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms have already developed south of I-70 in advance of the shortwave, with additional convection expected to develop through the day. ML CAPE is progged to range from 750-1500 j/kg during peak heating, with 0-6km shear around 20kt. There is some drying aloft, though DCAPE values generally ranging from 350-500 j/kg. While some storms could contain gusty wind if they are able to tap in to the somewhat drier air aloft, an organized severe weather potential appears minimal. The Storm Predication Center has added a portion of the area near and south of I- 70 to a Marginal Risk for severe weather today. Precipitable water increases today, with values ranging from 1.6 to 1.8 inches. The highest levels are progged south of I-70. Storms should be moving today, with storm motion generally around 25kt. There is a potential for localized flash flooding where more numerous storms are expected, and where any training would occur. This potential is highest south of I-70. Expect the convection to diminish by late afternoon/early evening, as the shortwave trough axis exits to the east. KEY MESSAGE 2... After any early evening convection wanes, expect mainly dry weather tonight. The next shortwave is progged to approach from the Midwest, crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region late tonight into Friday. A surface boundary is also progged to drift south across the region Friday. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms with this shortwave. Instability is progged to be similar to today's, with similar PWATs. Increased flow aloft should result in a slightly faster storm motion, though 0-6 km shear remains around 25kt. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible, especially where any training would occur. Ensembles indicate the surface boundary should stall south of the I-70 corridor on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue, as another shortwave tracks in the vicinity of the boundary. The highest POPs are currently near and south of the I-70 corridor. KEY MESSAGE 3... The flow aloft should veer to the NW on Sunday, pushing the surface boundary further south. Mainly dry weather is expected as the front exits. Dry and warmer weather is expected through the middle of next week, as a strong ridge/high builds eastward from the central CONUS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching shortwave trough will result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for areas near and south of I-70 this morning. These have been heavy rain producers reducing visibility to as low as 3/4SM, so have included appropriate mention at MGW through mid-morning with slightly lesser restrictions at LBE as the shortwave slides northeast. Patchy fog at DUJ will quickly erode with sunrise. Otherwise, expect additional cumulus clouds to develop late this morning as convective temperatures are reached. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon south of Pittsburgh as another shortwave crosses. HREFguidance suggests around a 50-60% chance for at least 1"/hr rainfall rates and thus periodic but impactful visibility restriction to a mile or less similar to observations from this morning. Included PROB30 for TSRA for most airports north of the I-70 corridor, with a TEMPO mention to the south where more coverage is expected. Convection should wane by evening as the shortwave trough axis exits to the east, though some hi res guidance maintains widely scattered showers overnight ahead of yet another shortwave progged to cross on Friday, so for now kept VCSH mention in for the overnight period. Outlook... More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday with another crossing disturbance. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday as a surface front becomes stationary near or south of a ZZV-MGW corridor. Generally dry weather and VFR should return Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds in. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM/MLB  926 FXUS64 KHUN 091153 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 653 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1037 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Mainly low to medium (30-70%) for showers and thunderstorms are expect today, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Friday. Heat index values should drop into the 95 to 100 degree range Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Showers along with a few lightning strikes at times continue to move east in portions of northeastern Alabama. Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in southwestern portions of Tennessee. Most of our northern Alabama and southern middle counties have remained clear with light or calm winds in place. However, we have not seen many visibility reductions so far. Satellite imagery shows clouds around 4000 to 6000 feet slowly building into northern Alabama. As a trough axis aloft that moves from NW Mississippi over the area towards daybreak, forcing/mixing should break up fog development where it occurs. However, some patchy dense fog is not out of the question for an hour or two in areas that remain mostly clear. Models show showers and scattered thunderstorms developing over southwestern portions of northern Alabama between 4 and 6 AM and spreading east into the morning hours. Expect cloud cover between 5000 and 10,000 feet to increase in coverage and thickness as well. Little shear is shown as the trough axis moves into NW Alabama towards daybreak today hours today. However, based on current SBCAPE seen in analysis, think some instability will still be available to tap into. So, maintained a low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly producing heavy downpours and frequent lightning towards daybreak on Thursday. This activity will likely push east and just south of the area after 1 PM. However, a low to medium (30-50%) of scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the afternoon hours on Thursday. Again, instability looks too meager for any severe microbursts, but heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will be the main threats. It is expected to be cooler on Thursday with highs only in the mid 80s to around 91 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Expect activity to dissipate sooner Thursday evening. However, another shortwave looks to push ESE through flow aloft overnight producing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to push into southern middle Tennessee and northeastern Alabama through daybreak on Friday. Low temperatures with cloud cover and a focusing mechanism for low level moisture will likely only drop into the lower 70s. The surface boundary associated with this upper level disturbance seems to linger over northern Alabama during the day on Friday. This would likely keep fairly high chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast(40-80%) into the early afternoon hours on Friday, before decreasing from west to east. SBCAPE climbs higher to between 2000 and 4000 J/KG in most guidance. Between the better instability, lift, and some soundings showing theta E difference values increasing again to around 30 again, severe microbursts seem possible. Again the early arrival of precipitation around daybreak and continued development in the afternoon will keep highs in the mid 80s to around 91 degrees. Models seem to be set on this pattern of another shortwave moving southeast into northern AL and NE Tennessee late Friday night into very early Saturday morning as well. This should be ample ingredients for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Temperatures when you wake up should again be in the lower 70s. A medium to high (30-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected during this period. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours will be the main threats with any thunderstorms through daybreak on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 We will remain in a humid, tropical airmass through Saturday as zonal flow aloft is challenged by broad upper troughing over the northeast Atlantic. An increase in PVE with the warm humid airmass in place ahead will result in medium to high (70-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday peaking during diurnal heating hours of the afternoon. With PWAT values between 1.8-2", localized flooding could occur across areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain. As high pressure expands across the Great Lakes, a frontal boundary will shift southward on Sunday and should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity. Temperatures behind this feature will top out in the mid to upper 80s from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with cooler overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The good news is that this will keep the HeatRisk in the Minor (level 1) category which highlights the risk for heat related illness in those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will not be as dangerous overall compared to what we have experienced lately. Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the long term forecast but will primarily be diurnally driven with a very low risk for any severe storms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated shower/thunderstorm activity was approaching N/AL from the west. This activity should overspread the area during the course of the morning, and fade as we go into the late morning. More convection should develop in the late morning and this afternoon. Have maintained a PROB30 for the afternoon to early evening as they impact KMSL and KHSV terminals. Erratic gusty winds and frequent lightning can be expected. CIG/VSBY values should fall into MVFR with the heavier showers, with brief IFR (VSBY <3SM, CIGs <1000' AGL) reductions or lower. Conditions should improve this evening. Late night fog could develop in areas that receive wetting rainfall; confidence is too low to add it to the TAF this issuance. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RSB  018 FXUS63 KFGF 091155 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 655 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 2 out of 5 risk Tlate afternoon and evening today for the Devils Lake area and a level 1 out of 5 risk tonight into the northern Red River valley. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms. - Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 SPC Day 1 outlook issued around 06z didnt change the slight or marginal risk area. Looks like scattered severe storms will form in an axis of 3000 to 4000 j/kg MUCAPE in north central ND into southwest Manitoba mid to late afternoon. Location of development may be affected by how far east this early morning t-storms moving in from Saskatchewan and northeast Montana make it. Brief severe period as after 03z the MUCAPE values drop significantly and 0-6 km bulk shear is modest (25-30 kts) any low level jet is quite weak as well, 850 mb winds 20-25 kts. Heat impacts and messaging remain for this weekend into early next week with focus on highest heat impacts Sunday and Monday. UPDATE Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Surface high pressure centered in southern MB will extend its influence into our area, calming winds, and helping clear skies. This may help areas of fog develop within the region. Latest high resolution guidance keeps coverage on the lower end, but does highlight areas within the Red River Valley as well as into northwest Minnesota. Should fog develop, timeframe generally resides 4 AM to 8 AM. Fog may be dense within the Red River Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Synopsis... Zonal flow across the northern CONUS today will gradually give way to more meridional flow by this weekend as ridging builds across the Rockies and Plains. Clusters then depict a couple stronger waves riding along the periphery of the ridge in Interior Canada. This could have impacts reaching some of the local thresholds for Heat Advisories or even an Extreme Heat Warning this weekend so the impact of these waves in the placement and amplitude of the ridge will certainly be something to watch. Along with these waves comes chances for some scattered rain though no drought busters. The main rain chance to be aware of looks to be Thursday evening/overnight mainly across our eastern North Dakota counties with chance for some strong to severe activity. - Thursday Severe Risk Amid mostly zonal to slightly NW flow will come a shortwave tomorrow with a developing low level jet in the evening ahead the pacific trough. As moisture surges north in central North Dakota with dewpoints nearing 70 potentially there will be no shortage CAPE with upwards of 3000-4000 MUCAPE and enough shear along clockwise curved hodographs for initially robust supercell structures. Capable of golf ball sized hail and potentially a few tornadoes though a later initiation time may shunt the tornado threat (an earlier storm start time may yield a higher threat.) Regardless as storms work east into our forecast area and namely the Devils Lake Basin around 7-9pm they should transition to a more elevated mode and the surface begins to cool with the cessation of daytime heating and hazards will evolve to primarily hail and an increasing wind threat storms likely congeal into one or more lines/bowing segments. Hazards for our area are hail to 1.75" and winds to 60mph. - Heat Impacts For this weekend as heat builds there is high confidence in much of eastern North Dakota seeing air temperatures cresting 90 degrees as early as Saturday and lasting through at least Monday when highs fall back into the 80s for the middle of next week. During this stretch the 25-75th percentile spreadon potential high temperatures is a reasonable 5-8 degrees meaning while temps could end up slightly warmer or cooler than currently being forecast it is unlikely highs will only be in the lower 80s rather than lower 90s. Along with the warm temps will be heat indices near to above 100 Saturday through Monday. With this heat headlines look to be in order with Sunday being the hottest day of the stretch. Will wait until tomorrow at the earliest to issue any headlines for Saturday but it will be a proper July scorcher of a weekend regardless of any products being issued. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR thru the period expected. Exceptions will be near any thunderstorms that affect the area late afternoon into tonight. I put prob30 for -tsra in GFK DVL and TVF sites where chances are 30 pct around the airport this evening/tonight. Other than that cirrus and some mid clouds later on. Calm winds to start then south-southeast 5 to 10 kts later this morning/aftn...but Bemidji near calm all day. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/Riddle DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...Riddle  168 FXUS64 KOUN 091159 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 659 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 639 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered showers/storms are expected to continue to develop over northern Oklahoma into the morning hours. - Severe weather will be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning, and again Friday afternoon. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through the weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this morning, mainly across northern Oklahoma. A few storms may produce gusty winds and small hail, but overall impacts are expected be very low. The more showery activity may reach as far south as the I-40 corridor by sunrise. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than on Wednesday, where most of us will get up into the low 100s. Ambient surface moisture will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s through the day, especially across the eastern half of the area. That being said, afternoon heat indices are expected to get up to between 105-109 F across these locations. A heat advisory is in effect from noon to 8 PM for much of Oklahoma. A weak boundary that is expected to stall across northern Oklahoma today, may be the focal point for thunderstorms again this afternoon. Given the moisture in place, gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms. Bunker && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A more organized line of thunderstorms will move into the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. As these cluster of storms move in, they will be capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts and frequent lightning, along with locally heavy rainfall. There is a little more uncertainty with the position of the frontal boundary on Friday, which will be largely dictated by convection early Friday morning. This boundary will be the focal point for additional thunderstorms throughout the day. A few of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Another warm day is in store on Friday with afternoon temperatures reaching the triple digits for most of us. A few perturbations within the mid-level flow pattern will help support additional thunderstorm chances through Saturday across much of the area. A few stronger storms may be capable of small hail and gusty winds. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Temperatures through the latter half of the weekend into early next week will be 5-10 degrees cooler than what we will see over the next few days. A mid-level ridge across the Desert Southwest will shift to the north, and move into the central and high Plains. Across our area, we will see mostly dry conditions and a warm up back into the mid to upper upper 90s for the latter half of the week. Bunker && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and storms are continuing to diminish this morning, but the greatest chances to see a storm in the next few hours will be at PNC/SWO. Isolated storms are possible again this afternoon and evening, roughly north of I-40. There is such high uncertainty in the exact locations of storm development, so no thunder mention was given at any specific site during this TAF issuance. Additional storms may be possible again late this evening into the overnight hours with the highest chances and confidence across northwest Oklahoma, so a PROB30 was included in this TAF issuance for WWR from 02-06z. Any storms that develop today and tonight will be capable of lightning and gusty/erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 101 80 100 79 / 20 0 10 10 Hobart OK 101 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 101 79 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 101 73 99 73 / 30 30 20 40 Ponca City OK 98 77 95 76 / 20 20 20 40 Durant OK 99 80 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-017>020-023>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...23